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000
FXUS63 KAPX 040134
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
934 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PESKY UPPER LOW SITTING RIGHT ATOP NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. SECONDARY WELL DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER NOTED OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOVING SSE WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. POCKETS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING AND BULK OF THE ACTION
HAS SHIFTED DOWN INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN. UP OUR WAY...MODEST LOW-
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHES SE-NW UP ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE WE HAVE HAD PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SOME TERRAIN BOOST ALSO EVIDENT.
MEANWHILE...WE ARE SEEING SOME DRIER AIR NOSING DOWN INTO THE THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND HAS BEEN ERODING AWAY THE NRN EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.

REST OF TONIGHT...BETTER QG-ASCENT WILL REMAIN DOWN ACROSS SRN
LAKE HURON/SE LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME HINTS IN GUIDANCE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME OF THE PRECIP DOWN ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN TRIES TO ROTATE
BACK UP INTO PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WILL SEE HOW THAT GOES...BUT EITHER WAY WILL KEEP BEST
RAIN CHANCES GOING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA HEADING INTO
FRIDAY. NRN/FAR NW PART OF THE CWA MIGHT ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLR-
PTCLDY SKIES AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDY/SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

DECAYING UPPER LOW IS SITTING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH POCKETS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OFF INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING A BIT
SPOTTIER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT THINK SOME
OF THE HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ROTATE BACK UP INTO
NE LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EITHER WAY...SOLID
LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLN MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
ERODING AWAY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. BUT OVERALL...MVFR-IFR.

FRIDAY...SHOWERY WEATHER AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GOOD AS WE SAW TODAY. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME DURING THE
MORNING. BUT MVFR-LOW VFR WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040134
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
934 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PESKY UPPER LOW SITTING RIGHT ATOP NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. SECONDARY WELL DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER NOTED OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOVING SSE WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. POCKETS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING AND BULK OF THE ACTION
HAS SHIFTED DOWN INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN. UP OUR WAY...MODEST LOW-
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHES SE-NW UP ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE WE HAVE HAD PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SOME TERRAIN BOOST ALSO EVIDENT.
MEANWHILE...WE ARE SEEING SOME DRIER AIR NOSING DOWN INTO THE THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND HAS BEEN ERODING AWAY THE NRN EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.

REST OF TONIGHT...BETTER QG-ASCENT WILL REMAIN DOWN ACROSS SRN
LAKE HURON/SE LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME HINTS IN GUIDANCE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME OF THE PRECIP DOWN ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN TRIES TO ROTATE
BACK UP INTO PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WILL SEE HOW THAT GOES...BUT EITHER WAY WILL KEEP BEST
RAIN CHANCES GOING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA HEADING INTO
FRIDAY. NRN/FAR NW PART OF THE CWA MIGHT ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLR-
PTCLDY SKIES AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDY/SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

DECAYING UPPER LOW IS SITTING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH POCKETS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OFF INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING A BIT
SPOTTIER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT THINK SOME
OF THE HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ROTATE BACK UP INTO
NE LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EITHER WAY...SOLID
LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLN MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
ERODING AWAY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. BUT OVERALL...MVFR-IFR.

FRIDAY...SHOWERY WEATHER AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GOOD AS WE SAW TODAY. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME DURING THE
MORNING. BUT MVFR-LOW VFR WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040134
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
934 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PESKY UPPER LOW SITTING RIGHT ATOP NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. SECONDARY WELL DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER NOTED OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOVING SSE WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. POCKETS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING AND BULK OF THE ACTION
HAS SHIFTED DOWN INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN. UP OUR WAY...MODEST LOW-
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHES SE-NW UP ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE WE HAVE HAD PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SOME TERRAIN BOOST ALSO EVIDENT.
MEANWHILE...WE ARE SEEING SOME DRIER AIR NOSING DOWN INTO THE THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND HAS BEEN ERODING AWAY THE NRN EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.

REST OF TONIGHT...BETTER QG-ASCENT WILL REMAIN DOWN ACROSS SRN
LAKE HURON/SE LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME HINTS IN GUIDANCE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME OF THE PRECIP DOWN ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN TRIES TO ROTATE
BACK UP INTO PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WILL SEE HOW THAT GOES...BUT EITHER WAY WILL KEEP BEST
RAIN CHANCES GOING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA HEADING INTO
FRIDAY. NRN/FAR NW PART OF THE CWA MIGHT ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLR-
PTCLDY SKIES AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDY/SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

DECAYING UPPER LOW IS SITTING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH POCKETS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OFF INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING A BIT
SPOTTIER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT THINK SOME
OF THE HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ROTATE BACK UP INTO
NE LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EITHER WAY...SOLID
LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLN MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
ERODING AWAY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. BUT OVERALL...MVFR-IFR.

FRIDAY...SHOWERY WEATHER AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GOOD AS WE SAW TODAY. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME DURING THE
MORNING. BUT MVFR-LOW VFR WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040134
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
934 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PESKY UPPER LOW SITTING RIGHT ATOP NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. SECONDARY WELL DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER NOTED OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOVING SSE WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. POCKETS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING AND BULK OF THE ACTION
HAS SHIFTED DOWN INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN. UP OUR WAY...MODEST LOW-
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHES SE-NW UP ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE WE HAVE HAD PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SOME TERRAIN BOOST ALSO EVIDENT.
MEANWHILE...WE ARE SEEING SOME DRIER AIR NOSING DOWN INTO THE THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND HAS BEEN ERODING AWAY THE NRN EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.

REST OF TONIGHT...BETTER QG-ASCENT WILL REMAIN DOWN ACROSS SRN
LAKE HURON/SE LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME HINTS IN GUIDANCE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME OF THE PRECIP DOWN ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN TRIES TO ROTATE
BACK UP INTO PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WILL SEE HOW THAT GOES...BUT EITHER WAY WILL KEEP BEST
RAIN CHANCES GOING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA HEADING INTO
FRIDAY. NRN/FAR NW PART OF THE CWA MIGHT ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLR-
PTCLDY SKIES AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDY/SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

DECAYING UPPER LOW IS SITTING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH POCKETS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OFF INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING A BIT
SPOTTIER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT THINK SOME
OF THE HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ROTATE BACK UP INTO
NE LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EITHER WAY...SOLID
LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLN MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
ERODING AWAY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. BUT OVERALL...MVFR-IFR.

FRIDAY...SHOWERY WEATHER AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GOOD AS WE SAW TODAY. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME DURING THE
MORNING. BUT MVFR-LOW VFR WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRR 040038
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
838 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD HIGHS
AROUND 80 FRIDAY BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS BACK TO THE MID 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

I UPDATED OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS TO DROP THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. AS I SEE IT THE
CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH WITH TIME AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF OUR CWA TOTALLY BY MIDNIGHT. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS THE 700 MB
LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON BY APN...MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD...REACHING TO NEAR TVC BY MORNING. THAT KEEPS MOST OF OUR
CWA IN THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALL NIGHT LONG. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
EAST OF LANSING BY 9 PM. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE RAP13
MODEL DROPS SOUTH OVER TIME TOO... WHICH GOES ALONG WITH THE IDEA
OF NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TONIGHT. ONLY AREAS NEAR THE 700 MB
LOW MAY SEE SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS (NEAR AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 10).

AS FOR FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ISSUE. THERE IS AN AREA OF THICK LOW CLOUDS DROPPING
SOUTH TO NEAR I-96...AS 0F 8 PM THIS EVENING.  DEPENDING ON JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH THEY GET WILL DECIDE HOW DENSE THE FOG GETS TONIGHT.
WITH ALL THE RAIN TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS IF THE SKIES STAYED MOSTLY
CLEAR WE COULD BE LOOKING AT DENSE FOG BY SUNRISE. LIKELY IF THIS
HAPPENS IT WOULD BE NEAR I-94.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM MOUNT PLEASANT WEST TO NEWAYGO COUNTY. THE SECOND
IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM NEAR ST JOHNS TO MIDDLEVILLE. THE SOUTHERN
LINE APPEARS TO BE NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS WASHING OUT.
FARTHER NORTH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS IS ENABLING A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. AS THE SUN SETS WE/LL LOSE SOME
INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE A BIT. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 15KTS ARE PROGD FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA SO WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
SVR STORMS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE OR TWO DUE TO DECENT
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT MAY BRING COPIOUS
RAINS FROM MONDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE BLENDED FORECAST...MAINLY TO SLOW
THE FRONT DOWN A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK PER THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF THEN
END THE CHANCE FOR POPS LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES
ON. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION AND HIGH PWATS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL FROM MONDAY TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND 80 TO NEAR 90 DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS ARE. WENT
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

I AM THINKING ALL TAF SITES WILL BECOME IFR TONIGHT AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR CIGS AT BEST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAIN
THROUGH JUST A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

CURRENTLY THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FIRING
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAY IS MOVING SOUTH OF I-94. THIS IS
MORE THAN JUST A COOL POOL EVENT...THERE IS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE IN NO HURRY GO GO
ANYWHERE. SINCE THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE MOVING MUCH IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS... WE WILL STAY IN THE COOL AIR. ALSO WORRY OF NOTE IS
ALL THE IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING NORTH OF
I-96. THIS TO IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW. MY SPIN IS THE STRATUS
WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. THE QUESTION IS WHICH
HAPPENS FIRST. IF THE STRATUS GETS TO THE TAF SITES FIRST THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE DENSE FOG BY MORNING. IF THE STRATUS COMES IN
LATER...THEN THERE WILL BE TIME FOR THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE. AT
THIS POINT IT WOULD SEEM THE I-94 TAF SITES ARE FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM THE STRATUS TO ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FROM. TAF SITES NEAR TO
I-96 MAY GET THE STRATUS FIRST. EITHER WAY WE HAVE IFR IN THE
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS GOING NO WHERE
FAST...I AM THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF
(STATIONARY FRONT IMPACTS).


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
ONSHORE FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 040038
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
838 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD HIGHS
AROUND 80 FRIDAY BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS BACK TO THE MID 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

I UPDATED OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS TO DROP THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. AS I SEE IT THE
CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH WITH TIME AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF OUR CWA TOTALLY BY MIDNIGHT. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS THE 700 MB
LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON BY APN...MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD...REACHING TO NEAR TVC BY MORNING. THAT KEEPS MOST OF OUR
CWA IN THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALL NIGHT LONG. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
EAST OF LANSING BY 9 PM. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE RAP13
MODEL DROPS SOUTH OVER TIME TOO... WHICH GOES ALONG WITH THE IDEA
OF NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TONIGHT. ONLY AREAS NEAR THE 700 MB
LOW MAY SEE SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS (NEAR AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 10).

AS FOR FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ISSUE. THERE IS AN AREA OF THICK LOW CLOUDS DROPPING
SOUTH TO NEAR I-96...AS 0F 8 PM THIS EVENING.  DEPENDING ON JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH THEY GET WILL DECIDE HOW DENSE THE FOG GETS TONIGHT.
WITH ALL THE RAIN TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS IF THE SKIES STAYED MOSTLY
CLEAR WE COULD BE LOOKING AT DENSE FOG BY SUNRISE. LIKELY IF THIS
HAPPENS IT WOULD BE NEAR I-94.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM MOUNT PLEASANT WEST TO NEWAYGO COUNTY. THE SECOND
IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM NEAR ST JOHNS TO MIDDLEVILLE. THE SOUTHERN
LINE APPEARS TO BE NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS WASHING OUT.
FARTHER NORTH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS IS ENABLING A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. AS THE SUN SETS WE/LL LOSE SOME
INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE A BIT. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 15KTS ARE PROGD FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA SO WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
SVR STORMS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE OR TWO DUE TO DECENT
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT MAY BRING COPIOUS
RAINS FROM MONDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE BLENDED FORECAST...MAINLY TO SLOW
THE FRONT DOWN A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK PER THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF THEN
END THE CHANCE FOR POPS LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES
ON. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION AND HIGH PWATS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL FROM MONDAY TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND 80 TO NEAR 90 DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS ARE. WENT
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

I AM THINKING ALL TAF SITES WILL BECOME IFR TONIGHT AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR CIGS AT BEST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAIN
THROUGH JUST A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

CURRENTLY THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FIRING
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAY IS MOVING SOUTH OF I-94. THIS IS
MORE THAN JUST A COOL POOL EVENT...THERE IS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE IN NO HURRY GO GO
ANYWHERE. SINCE THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE MOVING MUCH IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS... WE WILL STAY IN THE COOL AIR. ALSO WORRY OF NOTE IS
ALL THE IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING NORTH OF
I-96. THIS TO IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW. MY SPIN IS THE STRATUS
WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. THE QUESTION IS WHICH
HAPPENS FIRST. IF THE STRATUS GETS TO THE TAF SITES FIRST THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE DENSE FOG BY MORNING. IF THE STRATUS COMES IN
LATER...THEN THERE WILL BE TIME FOR THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE. AT
THIS POINT IT WOULD SEEM THE I-94 TAF SITES ARE FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM THE STRATUS TO ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FROM. TAF SITES NEAR TO
I-96 MAY GET THE STRATUS FIRST. EITHER WAY WE HAVE IFR IN THE
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS GOING NO WHERE
FAST...I AM THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF
(STATIONARY FRONT IMPACTS).


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
ONSHORE FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 040038
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
838 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD HIGHS
AROUND 80 FRIDAY BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS BACK TO THE MID 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

I UPDATED OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS TO DROP THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. AS I SEE IT THE
CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH WITH TIME AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF OUR CWA TOTALLY BY MIDNIGHT. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS THE 700 MB
LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON BY APN...MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD...REACHING TO NEAR TVC BY MORNING. THAT KEEPS MOST OF OUR
CWA IN THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALL NIGHT LONG. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
EAST OF LANSING BY 9 PM. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE RAP13
MODEL DROPS SOUTH OVER TIME TOO... WHICH GOES ALONG WITH THE IDEA
OF NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TONIGHT. ONLY AREAS NEAR THE 700 MB
LOW MAY SEE SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS (NEAR AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 10).

AS FOR FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ISSUE. THERE IS AN AREA OF THICK LOW CLOUDS DROPPING
SOUTH TO NEAR I-96...AS 0F 8 PM THIS EVENING.  DEPENDING ON JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH THEY GET WILL DECIDE HOW DENSE THE FOG GETS TONIGHT.
WITH ALL THE RAIN TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS IF THE SKIES STAYED MOSTLY
CLEAR WE COULD BE LOOKING AT DENSE FOG BY SUNRISE. LIKELY IF THIS
HAPPENS IT WOULD BE NEAR I-94.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM MOUNT PLEASANT WEST TO NEWAYGO COUNTY. THE SECOND
IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM NEAR ST JOHNS TO MIDDLEVILLE. THE SOUTHERN
LINE APPEARS TO BE NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS WASHING OUT.
FARTHER NORTH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS IS ENABLING A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. AS THE SUN SETS WE/LL LOSE SOME
INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE A BIT. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 15KTS ARE PROGD FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA SO WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
SVR STORMS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE OR TWO DUE TO DECENT
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT MAY BRING COPIOUS
RAINS FROM MONDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE BLENDED FORECAST...MAINLY TO SLOW
THE FRONT DOWN A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK PER THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF THEN
END THE CHANCE FOR POPS LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES
ON. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION AND HIGH PWATS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL FROM MONDAY TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND 80 TO NEAR 90 DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS ARE. WENT
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

I AM THINKING ALL TAF SITES WILL BECOME IFR TONIGHT AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR CIGS AT BEST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAIN
THROUGH JUST A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

CURRENTLY THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FIRING
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAY IS MOVING SOUTH OF I-94. THIS IS
MORE THAN JUST A COOL POOL EVENT...THERE IS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE IN NO HURRY GO GO
ANYWHERE. SINCE THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE MOVING MUCH IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS... WE WILL STAY IN THE COOL AIR. ALSO WORRY OF NOTE IS
ALL THE IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING NORTH OF
I-96. THIS TO IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW. MY SPIN IS THE STRATUS
WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. THE QUESTION IS WHICH
HAPPENS FIRST. IF THE STRATUS GETS TO THE TAF SITES FIRST THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE DENSE FOG BY MORNING. IF THE STRATUS COMES IN
LATER...THEN THERE WILL BE TIME FOR THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE. AT
THIS POINT IT WOULD SEEM THE I-94 TAF SITES ARE FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM THE STRATUS TO ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FROM. TAF SITES NEAR TO
I-96 MAY GET THE STRATUS FIRST. EITHER WAY WE HAVE IFR IN THE
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS GOING NO WHERE
FAST...I AM THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF
(STATIONARY FRONT IMPACTS).


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
ONSHORE FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 040038
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
838 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD HIGHS
AROUND 80 FRIDAY BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS BACK TO THE MID 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

I UPDATED OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS TO DROP THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. AS I SEE IT THE
CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH WITH TIME AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF OUR CWA TOTALLY BY MIDNIGHT. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS THE 700 MB
LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON BY APN...MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD...REACHING TO NEAR TVC BY MORNING. THAT KEEPS MOST OF OUR
CWA IN THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALL NIGHT LONG. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
EAST OF LANSING BY 9 PM. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE RAP13
MODEL DROPS SOUTH OVER TIME TOO... WHICH GOES ALONG WITH THE IDEA
OF NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TONIGHT. ONLY AREAS NEAR THE 700 MB
LOW MAY SEE SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS (NEAR AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 10).

AS FOR FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ISSUE. THERE IS AN AREA OF THICK LOW CLOUDS DROPPING
SOUTH TO NEAR I-96...AS 0F 8 PM THIS EVENING.  DEPENDING ON JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH THEY GET WILL DECIDE HOW DENSE THE FOG GETS TONIGHT.
WITH ALL THE RAIN TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS IF THE SKIES STAYED MOSTLY
CLEAR WE COULD BE LOOKING AT DENSE FOG BY SUNRISE. LIKELY IF THIS
HAPPENS IT WOULD BE NEAR I-94.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM MOUNT PLEASANT WEST TO NEWAYGO COUNTY. THE SECOND
IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM NEAR ST JOHNS TO MIDDLEVILLE. THE SOUTHERN
LINE APPEARS TO BE NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS WASHING OUT.
FARTHER NORTH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS IS ENABLING A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. AS THE SUN SETS WE/LL LOSE SOME
INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE A BIT. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 15KTS ARE PROGD FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA SO WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
SVR STORMS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE OR TWO DUE TO DECENT
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT MAY BRING COPIOUS
RAINS FROM MONDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE BLENDED FORECAST...MAINLY TO SLOW
THE FRONT DOWN A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK PER THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF THEN
END THE CHANCE FOR POPS LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES
ON. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION AND HIGH PWATS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL FROM MONDAY TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND 80 TO NEAR 90 DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS ARE. WENT
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

I AM THINKING ALL TAF SITES WILL BECOME IFR TONIGHT AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR CIGS AT BEST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAIN
THROUGH JUST A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

CURRENTLY THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FIRING
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAY IS MOVING SOUTH OF I-94. THIS IS
MORE THAN JUST A COOL POOL EVENT...THERE IS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE IN NO HURRY GO GO
ANYWHERE. SINCE THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE MOVING MUCH IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS... WE WILL STAY IN THE COOL AIR. ALSO WORRY OF NOTE IS
ALL THE IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING NORTH OF
I-96. THIS TO IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW. MY SPIN IS THE STRATUS
WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. THE QUESTION IS WHICH
HAPPENS FIRST. IF THE STRATUS GETS TO THE TAF SITES FIRST THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE DENSE FOG BY MORNING. IF THE STRATUS COMES IN
LATER...THEN THERE WILL BE TIME FOR THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE. AT
THIS POINT IT WOULD SEEM THE I-94 TAF SITES ARE FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM THE STRATUS TO ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FROM. TAF SITES NEAR TO
I-96 MAY GET THE STRATUS FIRST. EITHER WAY WE HAVE IFR IN THE
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS GOING NO WHERE
FAST...I AM THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF
(STATIONARY FRONT IMPACTS).


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
ONSHORE FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 040007
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
807 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD HIGHS
AROUND 80 FRIDAY BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS BACK TO THE MID 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM MOUNT PLEASANT WEST TO NEWAYGO COUNTY. THE SECOND
IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM NEAR ST JOHNS TO MIDDLEVILLE. THE SOUTHERN
LINE APPEARS TO BE NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS WASHING OUT.
FARTHER NORTH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS IS ENABLING A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. AS THE SUN SETS WE/LL LOSE SOME
INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE A BIT. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 15KTS ARE PROGD FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA SO WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
SVR STORMS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE OR TWO DUE TO DECENT
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT MAY BRING COPIOUS
RAINS FROM MONDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE BLENDED FORECAST...MAINLY TO SLOW
THE FRONT DOWN A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK PER THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF THEN
END THE CHANCE FOR POPS LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES
ON. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION AND HIGH PWATS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL FROM MONDAY TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND 80 TO NEAR 90 DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS ARE. WENT
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

I AM THINKING ALL TAF SITES WILL BECOME IFR TONIGHT AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR CIGS AT BEST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAIN
THROUGH JUST A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

CURRENTLY THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FIRING
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAY IS MOVING SOUTH OF I-94. THIS IS
MORE THAN JUST A COOL POOL EVENT...THERE IS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE IN NO HURRY GO GO
ANYWHERE. SINCE THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE MOVING MUCH IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS... WE WILL STAY IN THE COOL AIR. ALSO WORRY OF NOTE IS
ALL THE IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING NORTH OF
I-96. THIS TO IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW. MY SPIN IS THE STRATUS
WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. THE QUESTION IS WHICH
HAPPENS FIRST. IF THE STRATUS GETS TO THE TAF SITES FIRST THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE DENSE FOG BY MORNING. IF THE STRATUS COMES IN
LATER...THEN THERE WILL BE TIME FOR THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE. AT
THIS POINT IT WOULD SEEM THE I-94 TAF SITES ARE FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM THE STRATUS TO ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FROM. TAF SITES NEAR TO
I-96 MAY GET THE STRATUS FIRST. EITHER WAY WE HAVE IFR IN THE
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS GOING NO WHERE
FAST...I AM THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF
(STATIONARY FRONT IMPACTS).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
ONSHORE FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 040007
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
807 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD HIGHS
AROUND 80 FRIDAY BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS BACK TO THE MID 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM MOUNT PLEASANT WEST TO NEWAYGO COUNTY. THE SECOND
IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM NEAR ST JOHNS TO MIDDLEVILLE. THE SOUTHERN
LINE APPEARS TO BE NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS WASHING OUT.
FARTHER NORTH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS IS ENABLING A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. AS THE SUN SETS WE/LL LOSE SOME
INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE A BIT. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 15KTS ARE PROGD FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA SO WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
SVR STORMS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE OR TWO DUE TO DECENT
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT MAY BRING COPIOUS
RAINS FROM MONDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE BLENDED FORECAST...MAINLY TO SLOW
THE FRONT DOWN A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK PER THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF THEN
END THE CHANCE FOR POPS LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES
ON. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION AND HIGH PWATS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL FROM MONDAY TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND 80 TO NEAR 90 DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS ARE. WENT
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

I AM THINKING ALL TAF SITES WILL BECOME IFR TONIGHT AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR CIGS AT BEST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAIN
THROUGH JUST A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

CURRENTLY THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FIRING
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAY IS MOVING SOUTH OF I-94. THIS IS
MORE THAN JUST A COOL POOL EVENT...THERE IS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE IN NO HURRY GO GO
ANYWHERE. SINCE THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE MOVING MUCH IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS... WE WILL STAY IN THE COOL AIR. ALSO WORRY OF NOTE IS
ALL THE IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING NORTH OF
I-96. THIS TO IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW. MY SPIN IS THE STRATUS
WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. THE QUESTION IS WHICH
HAPPENS FIRST. IF THE STRATUS GETS TO THE TAF SITES FIRST THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE DENSE FOG BY MORNING. IF THE STRATUS COMES IN
LATER...THEN THERE WILL BE TIME FOR THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE. AT
THIS POINT IT WOULD SEEM THE I-94 TAF SITES ARE FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM THE STRATUS TO ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FROM. TAF SITES NEAR TO
I-96 MAY GET THE STRATUS FIRST. EITHER WAY WE HAVE IFR IN THE
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS GOING NO WHERE
FAST...I AM THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF
(STATIONARY FRONT IMPACTS).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
ONSHORE FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 032356
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
756 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PRESENT LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY AROUND 03Z...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY. TIMING
OF ADDITIONAL RAIN/THUNDER IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO TIME INTO 00Z TAF AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MAY RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES TO IFR...OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR. MOST ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL
ALLOW SOME FOR OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO FAVOR FOG HOWEVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR...OR LIFR WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL
OCCURRED.

FOR DTW...CURRENT AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND 03Z. LOW CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET SHOULD
STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKAGE OF THIS
DECK POSSIBLE LATE. DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE WILL ALLOW CLOUD DECK BELOW 5000
FEET TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12-14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN LOW OVERNIGHT AND
  FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 429 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MCS REMNANTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
SECOND PV ANOMALY NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL STALLING COMPONENT TO THE
INNOCUOUS AND VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALOFT. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION
THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN THE SLUGGISH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS.

FOCUS FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS OCCURRED
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD INTO THE TRI CITIES
REGION. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A WEST TO EAST 850-700MB THETA E AXIS.  THE LINE
OF TSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT STREAMLINES (MOST SPECIFICALLY
THE ONE OVER MIDLAND AND SAGINAW COUNTIES) HAS BEEN SLOW TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND HAS BEEN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST
MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER THE TRI CITIES WHERE A WIDE
BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WEAK 850-300MB MEAN FLOW AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8
INCHES. THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
WITHIN ALONG THIS NORTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS.
WITH THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR BOTH STALLING AND TRAINING OF
CONVECTION REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE INNOCUOUS CVA
FORCING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OAKLAND AND
MACOMB COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THE EVENING
AND TONIGHT FORECAST...WITH RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE VERY POOR. THE
MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN
21-08Z.

THE LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDGUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDOWN.

LONG TERM...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSITION OF GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STATE OF
CONVECTION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE TIED TO DEFORMATION WITHIN
THE UPPER CIRCULATION AND WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. THE
12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS PLACE THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WITH A REASONABLY POSITIONED QPF MAX
ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE COMING OFF THE DIURNAL HEATING MINIMUM
ALTHOUGH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN OVERACHIEVE IN TERMS OF
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PLAN TO ALLOW SHORT TERM TRENDS TO
GUIDE THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN FOCUS LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. GREATEST
COVERAGE THEN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AGAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITHIN THE WEAK WIND PROFILE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION. PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
MUCH LIKE TODAY BUT LIKELY NOT WITH AS MUCH ORGANIZATION.

THE TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
UPPER CIRCULATION KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THE WAVE TO DAMPEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE PLACEMENT PROBLEMATIC FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP HOT...HUMID DAYS AND
STICKY NIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP GARNER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT FRONT BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MI EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. ONCE THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE AREA
BEFORE EXITING INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-069-070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 032356
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
756 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PRESENT LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY AROUND 03Z...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY. TIMING
OF ADDITIONAL RAIN/THUNDER IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO TIME INTO 00Z TAF AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MAY RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES TO IFR...OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR. MOST ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL
ALLOW SOME FOR OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO FAVOR FOG HOWEVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR...OR LIFR WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL
OCCURRED.

FOR DTW...CURRENT AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND 03Z. LOW CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET SHOULD
STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKAGE OF THIS
DECK POSSIBLE LATE. DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE WILL ALLOW CLOUD DECK BELOW 5000
FEET TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12-14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN LOW OVERNIGHT AND
  FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 429 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MCS REMNANTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
SECOND PV ANOMALY NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL STALLING COMPONENT TO THE
INNOCUOUS AND VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALOFT. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION
THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN THE SLUGGISH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS.

FOCUS FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS OCCURRED
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD INTO THE TRI CITIES
REGION. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A WEST TO EAST 850-700MB THETA E AXIS.  THE LINE
OF TSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT STREAMLINES (MOST SPECIFICALLY
THE ONE OVER MIDLAND AND SAGINAW COUNTIES) HAS BEEN SLOW TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND HAS BEEN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST
MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER THE TRI CITIES WHERE A WIDE
BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WEAK 850-300MB MEAN FLOW AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8
INCHES. THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
WITHIN ALONG THIS NORTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS.
WITH THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR BOTH STALLING AND TRAINING OF
CONVECTION REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE INNOCUOUS CVA
FORCING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OAKLAND AND
MACOMB COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THE EVENING
AND TONIGHT FORECAST...WITH RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE VERY POOR. THE
MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN
21-08Z.

THE LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDGUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDOWN.

LONG TERM...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSITION OF GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STATE OF
CONVECTION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE TIED TO DEFORMATION WITHIN
THE UPPER CIRCULATION AND WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. THE
12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS PLACE THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WITH A REASONABLY POSITIONED QPF MAX
ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE COMING OFF THE DIURNAL HEATING MINIMUM
ALTHOUGH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN OVERACHIEVE IN TERMS OF
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PLAN TO ALLOW SHORT TERM TRENDS TO
GUIDE THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN FOCUS LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. GREATEST
COVERAGE THEN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AGAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITHIN THE WEAK WIND PROFILE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION. PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
MUCH LIKE TODAY BUT LIKELY NOT WITH AS MUCH ORGANIZATION.

THE TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
UPPER CIRCULATION KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THE WAVE TO DAMPEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE PLACEMENT PROBLEMATIC FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP HOT...HUMID DAYS AND
STICKY NIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP GARNER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT FRONT BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MI EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. ONCE THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE AREA
BEFORE EXITING INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-069-070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 032356
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
756 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PRESENT LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY AROUND 03Z...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY. TIMING
OF ADDITIONAL RAIN/THUNDER IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO TIME INTO 00Z TAF AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MAY RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES TO IFR...OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR. MOST ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL
ALLOW SOME FOR OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO FAVOR FOG HOWEVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR...OR LIFR WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL
OCCURRED.

FOR DTW...CURRENT AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND 03Z. LOW CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET SHOULD
STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKAGE OF THIS
DECK POSSIBLE LATE. DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE WILL ALLOW CLOUD DECK BELOW 5000
FEET TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12-14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN LOW OVERNIGHT AND
  FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 429 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MCS REMNANTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
SECOND PV ANOMALY NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL STALLING COMPONENT TO THE
INNOCUOUS AND VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALOFT. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION
THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN THE SLUGGISH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS.

FOCUS FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS OCCURRED
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD INTO THE TRI CITIES
REGION. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A WEST TO EAST 850-700MB THETA E AXIS.  THE LINE
OF TSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT STREAMLINES (MOST SPECIFICALLY
THE ONE OVER MIDLAND AND SAGINAW COUNTIES) HAS BEEN SLOW TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND HAS BEEN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST
MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER THE TRI CITIES WHERE A WIDE
BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WEAK 850-300MB MEAN FLOW AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8
INCHES. THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
WITHIN ALONG THIS NORTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS.
WITH THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR BOTH STALLING AND TRAINING OF
CONVECTION REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE INNOCUOUS CVA
FORCING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OAKLAND AND
MACOMB COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THE EVENING
AND TONIGHT FORECAST...WITH RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE VERY POOR. THE
MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN
21-08Z.

THE LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDGUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDOWN.

LONG TERM...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSITION OF GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STATE OF
CONVECTION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE TIED TO DEFORMATION WITHIN
THE UPPER CIRCULATION AND WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. THE
12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS PLACE THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WITH A REASONABLY POSITIONED QPF MAX
ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE COMING OFF THE DIURNAL HEATING MINIMUM
ALTHOUGH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN OVERACHIEVE IN TERMS OF
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PLAN TO ALLOW SHORT TERM TRENDS TO
GUIDE THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN FOCUS LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. GREATEST
COVERAGE THEN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AGAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITHIN THE WEAK WIND PROFILE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION. PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
MUCH LIKE TODAY BUT LIKELY NOT WITH AS MUCH ORGANIZATION.

THE TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
UPPER CIRCULATION KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THE WAVE TO DAMPEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE PLACEMENT PROBLEMATIC FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP HOT...HUMID DAYS AND
STICKY NIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP GARNER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT FRONT BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MI EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. ONCE THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE AREA
BEFORE EXITING INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-069-070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 032356
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
756 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PRESENT LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY AROUND 03Z...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY. TIMING
OF ADDITIONAL RAIN/THUNDER IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO TIME INTO 00Z TAF AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MAY RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES TO IFR...OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR. MOST ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL
ALLOW SOME FOR OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO FAVOR FOG HOWEVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR...OR LIFR WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL
OCCURRED.

FOR DTW...CURRENT AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND 03Z. LOW CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET SHOULD
STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKAGE OF THIS
DECK POSSIBLE LATE. DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE WILL ALLOW CLOUD DECK BELOW 5000
FEET TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12-14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN LOW OVERNIGHT AND
  FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 429 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MCS REMNANTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
SECOND PV ANOMALY NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL STALLING COMPONENT TO THE
INNOCUOUS AND VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALOFT. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION
THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN THE SLUGGISH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS.

FOCUS FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS OCCURRED
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD INTO THE TRI CITIES
REGION. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A WEST TO EAST 850-700MB THETA E AXIS.  THE LINE
OF TSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT STREAMLINES (MOST SPECIFICALLY
THE ONE OVER MIDLAND AND SAGINAW COUNTIES) HAS BEEN SLOW TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND HAS BEEN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST
MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER THE TRI CITIES WHERE A WIDE
BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WEAK 850-300MB MEAN FLOW AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8
INCHES. THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
WITHIN ALONG THIS NORTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS.
WITH THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR BOTH STALLING AND TRAINING OF
CONVECTION REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE INNOCUOUS CVA
FORCING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OAKLAND AND
MACOMB COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THE EVENING
AND TONIGHT FORECAST...WITH RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE VERY POOR. THE
MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN
21-08Z.

THE LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDGUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDOWN.

LONG TERM...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSITION OF GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STATE OF
CONVECTION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE TIED TO DEFORMATION WITHIN
THE UPPER CIRCULATION AND WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. THE
12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS PLACE THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WITH A REASONABLY POSITIONED QPF MAX
ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE COMING OFF THE DIURNAL HEATING MINIMUM
ALTHOUGH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN OVERACHIEVE IN TERMS OF
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PLAN TO ALLOW SHORT TERM TRENDS TO
GUIDE THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN FOCUS LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. GREATEST
COVERAGE THEN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AGAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITHIN THE WEAK WIND PROFILE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION. PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
MUCH LIKE TODAY BUT LIKELY NOT WITH AS MUCH ORGANIZATION.

THE TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
UPPER CIRCULATION KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THE WAVE TO DAMPEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE PLACEMENT PROBLEMATIC FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP HOT...HUMID DAYS AND
STICKY NIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP GARNER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT FRONT BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MI EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. ONCE THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE AREA
BEFORE EXITING INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-069-070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 032356
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
756 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PRESENT LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY AROUND 03Z...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY. TIMING
OF ADDITIONAL RAIN/THUNDER IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO TIME INTO 00Z TAF AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MAY RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES TO IFR...OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR. MOST ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL
ALLOW SOME FOR OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO FAVOR FOG HOWEVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR...OR LIFR WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL
OCCURRED.

FOR DTW...CURRENT AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND 03Z. LOW CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET SHOULD
STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKAGE OF THIS
DECK POSSIBLE LATE. DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE WILL ALLOW CLOUD DECK BELOW 5000
FEET TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12-14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN LOW OVERNIGHT AND
  FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 429 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MCS REMNANTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
SECOND PV ANOMALY NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL STALLING COMPONENT TO THE
INNOCUOUS AND VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALOFT. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION
THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN THE SLUGGISH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS.

FOCUS FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS OCCURRED
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD INTO THE TRI CITIES
REGION. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A WEST TO EAST 850-700MB THETA E AXIS.  THE LINE
OF TSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT STREAMLINES (MOST SPECIFICALLY
THE ONE OVER MIDLAND AND SAGINAW COUNTIES) HAS BEEN SLOW TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND HAS BEEN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST
MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER THE TRI CITIES WHERE A WIDE
BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WEAK 850-300MB MEAN FLOW AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8
INCHES. THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
WITHIN ALONG THIS NORTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS.
WITH THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR BOTH STALLING AND TRAINING OF
CONVECTION REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE INNOCUOUS CVA
FORCING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OAKLAND AND
MACOMB COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THE EVENING
AND TONIGHT FORECAST...WITH RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE VERY POOR. THE
MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN
21-08Z.

THE LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDGUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDOWN.

LONG TERM...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSITION OF GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STATE OF
CONVECTION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE TIED TO DEFORMATION WITHIN
THE UPPER CIRCULATION AND WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. THE
12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS PLACE THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WITH A REASONABLY POSITIONED QPF MAX
ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE COMING OFF THE DIURNAL HEATING MINIMUM
ALTHOUGH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN OVERACHIEVE IN TERMS OF
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PLAN TO ALLOW SHORT TERM TRENDS TO
GUIDE THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN FOCUS LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. GREATEST
COVERAGE THEN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AGAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITHIN THE WEAK WIND PROFILE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION. PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
MUCH LIKE TODAY BUT LIKELY NOT WITH AS MUCH ORGANIZATION.

THE TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
UPPER CIRCULATION KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THE WAVE TO DAMPEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE PLACEMENT PROBLEMATIC FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP HOT...HUMID DAYS AND
STICKY NIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP GARNER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT FRONT BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MI EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. ONCE THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE AREA
BEFORE EXITING INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-069-070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 032356
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
756 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PRESENT LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY AROUND 03Z...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY. TIMING
OF ADDITIONAL RAIN/THUNDER IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO TIME INTO 00Z TAF AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MAY RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES TO IFR...OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR. MOST ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL
ALLOW SOME FOR OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO FAVOR FOG HOWEVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR...OR LIFR WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL
OCCURRED.

FOR DTW...CURRENT AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND 03Z. LOW CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET SHOULD
STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKAGE OF THIS
DECK POSSIBLE LATE. DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE WILL ALLOW CLOUD DECK BELOW 5000
FEET TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12-14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN LOW OVERNIGHT AND
  FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 429 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MCS REMNANTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
SECOND PV ANOMALY NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL STALLING COMPONENT TO THE
INNOCUOUS AND VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALOFT. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION
THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN THE SLUGGISH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS.

FOCUS FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS OCCURRED
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD INTO THE TRI CITIES
REGION. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A WEST TO EAST 850-700MB THETA E AXIS.  THE LINE
OF TSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT STREAMLINES (MOST SPECIFICALLY
THE ONE OVER MIDLAND AND SAGINAW COUNTIES) HAS BEEN SLOW TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND HAS BEEN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST
MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER THE TRI CITIES WHERE A WIDE
BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WEAK 850-300MB MEAN FLOW AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8
INCHES. THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
WITHIN ALONG THIS NORTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS.
WITH THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR BOTH STALLING AND TRAINING OF
CONVECTION REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE INNOCUOUS CVA
FORCING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OAKLAND AND
MACOMB COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THE EVENING
AND TONIGHT FORECAST...WITH RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE VERY POOR. THE
MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN
21-08Z.

THE LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDGUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDOWN.

LONG TERM...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSITION OF GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STATE OF
CONVECTION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE TIED TO DEFORMATION WITHIN
THE UPPER CIRCULATION AND WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. THE
12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS PLACE THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WITH A REASONABLY POSITIONED QPF MAX
ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE COMING OFF THE DIURNAL HEATING MINIMUM
ALTHOUGH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN OVERACHIEVE IN TERMS OF
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PLAN TO ALLOW SHORT TERM TRENDS TO
GUIDE THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN FOCUS LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. GREATEST
COVERAGE THEN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AGAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITHIN THE WEAK WIND PROFILE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION. PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
MUCH LIKE TODAY BUT LIKELY NOT WITH AS MUCH ORGANIZATION.

THE TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
UPPER CIRCULATION KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THE WAVE TO DAMPEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE PLACEMENT PROBLEMATIC FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP HOT...HUMID DAYS AND
STICKY NIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP GARNER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT FRONT BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MI EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. ONCE THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE AREA
BEFORE EXITING INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-069-070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 032347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDY/SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

DECAYING UPPER LOW IS SITTING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH POCKETS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OFF INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING A BIT
SPOTTIER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT THINK SOME
OF THE HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ROTATE BACK UP INTO
NE LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EITHER WAY...SOLID
LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLN MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
ERODING AWAY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. BUT OVERALL...MVFR-IFR.

FRIDAY...SHOWERY WEATHER AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GOOD AS WE SAW TODAY. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME DURING THE
MORNING. BUT MVFR-LOW VFR WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 032347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDY/SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

DECAYING UPPER LOW IS SITTING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH POCKETS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OFF INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING A BIT
SPOTTIER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT THINK SOME
OF THE HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ROTATE BACK UP INTO
NE LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EITHER WAY...SOLID
LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLN MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
ERODING AWAY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. BUT OVERALL...MVFR-IFR.

FRIDAY...SHOWERY WEATHER AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GOOD AS WE SAW TODAY. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME DURING THE
MORNING. BUT MVFR-LOW VFR WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 032347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDY/SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

DECAYING UPPER LOW IS SITTING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH POCKETS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OFF INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING A BIT
SPOTTIER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT THINK SOME
OF THE HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ROTATE BACK UP INTO
NE LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EITHER WAY...SOLID
LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLN MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
ERODING AWAY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. BUT OVERALL...MVFR-IFR.

FRIDAY...SHOWERY WEATHER AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GOOD AS WE SAW TODAY. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME DURING THE
MORNING. BUT MVFR-LOW VFR WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 032347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDY/SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

DECAYING UPPER LOW IS SITTING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH POCKETS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OFF INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING A BIT
SPOTTIER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT THINK SOME
OF THE HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ROTATE BACK UP INTO
NE LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EITHER WAY...SOLID
LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLN MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
ERODING AWAY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. BUT OVERALL...MVFR-IFR.

FRIDAY...SHOWERY WEATHER AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GOOD AS WE SAW TODAY. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME DURING THE
MORNING. BUT MVFR-LOW VFR WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 032347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDY/SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

DECAYING UPPER LOW IS SITTING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH POCKETS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OFF INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING A BIT
SPOTTIER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT THINK SOME
OF THE HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ROTATE BACK UP INTO
NE LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EITHER WAY...SOLID
LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLN MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
ERODING AWAY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. BUT OVERALL...MVFR-IFR.

FRIDAY...SHOWERY WEATHER AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GOOD AS WE SAW TODAY. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME DURING THE
MORNING. BUT MVFR-LOW VFR WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 032347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDY/SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

DECAYING UPPER LOW IS SITTING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH POCKETS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OFF INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING A BIT
SPOTTIER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT THINK SOME
OF THE HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ROTATE BACK UP INTO
NE LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EITHER WAY...SOLID
LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLN MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
ERODING AWAY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. BUT OVERALL...MVFR-IFR.

FRIDAY...SHOWERY WEATHER AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GOOD AS WE SAW TODAY. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME DURING THE
MORNING. BUT MVFR-LOW VFR WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMQT 032344
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
744 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TEH SRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI...ON THE FORWARD
FLANK OF THE RIDGE...WAS VERY SLOWLY EDING TO THE SE. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC AND NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN LIGHT E TO NE FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SCT-BKN CU INLAND CNTRL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE CU WILL FADE
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...SOME MID CLOUS AROUND THD
PERSISTENT LOW MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE SE. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN LOWER
60S...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP MINS TO AROUND 60...COOLEST
OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF. SO...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CNTRL.

FRI...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MI MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL
LINGER...UPPER MI WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND
80...WITH LOWER READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SINCE DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY AND SINCE WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS
DENSE AS RECENT NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...SINCE MARINE FOG HAS CLEARED
OFF MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...ADVECTION OF
MARINE FOG WON`T BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO POOR CONDITIONS. THUS...AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS FOG OVERNIGHT SHOULDN`T DROP VIS BLO MVFR AT
KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF IFR AROUND DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WIND AT KIWD MAY WORK TO KEEP THAT TERMINAL VFR THRU THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM FRI MID MORNING THRU
THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE AND IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRI WITH NE FLOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3
FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN
20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 032344
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
744 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TEH SRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI...ON THE FORWARD
FLANK OF THE RIDGE...WAS VERY SLOWLY EDING TO THE SE. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC AND NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN LIGHT E TO NE FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SCT-BKN CU INLAND CNTRL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE CU WILL FADE
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...SOME MID CLOUS AROUND THD
PERSISTENT LOW MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE SE. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN LOWER
60S...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP MINS TO AROUND 60...COOLEST
OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF. SO...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CNTRL.

FRI...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MI MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL
LINGER...UPPER MI WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND
80...WITH LOWER READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SINCE DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY AND SINCE WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS
DENSE AS RECENT NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...SINCE MARINE FOG HAS CLEARED
OFF MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...ADVECTION OF
MARINE FOG WON`T BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO POOR CONDITIONS. THUS...AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS FOG OVERNIGHT SHOULDN`T DROP VIS BLO MVFR AT
KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF IFR AROUND DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WIND AT KIWD MAY WORK TO KEEP THAT TERMINAL VFR THRU THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM FRI MID MORNING THRU
THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE AND IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRI WITH NE FLOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3
FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN
20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 032344
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
744 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TEH SRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI...ON THE FORWARD
FLANK OF THE RIDGE...WAS VERY SLOWLY EDING TO THE SE. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC AND NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN LIGHT E TO NE FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SCT-BKN CU INLAND CNTRL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE CU WILL FADE
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...SOME MID CLOUS AROUND THD
PERSISTENT LOW MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE SE. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN LOWER
60S...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP MINS TO AROUND 60...COOLEST
OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF. SO...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CNTRL.

FRI...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MI MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL
LINGER...UPPER MI WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND
80...WITH LOWER READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SINCE DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY AND SINCE WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS
DENSE AS RECENT NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...SINCE MARINE FOG HAS CLEARED
OFF MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...ADVECTION OF
MARINE FOG WON`T BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO POOR CONDITIONS. THUS...AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS FOG OVERNIGHT SHOULDN`T DROP VIS BLO MVFR AT
KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF IFR AROUND DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WIND AT KIWD MAY WORK TO KEEP THAT TERMINAL VFR THRU THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM FRI MID MORNING THRU
THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE AND IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRI WITH NE FLOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3
FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN
20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KDTX 032029
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
429 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MCS REMNANTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
SECOND PV ANOMALY NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL STALLING COMPONENT TO THE
INNOCUOUS AND VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALOFT. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION
THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN THE SLUGGISH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS.

FOCUS FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS OCCURRED
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD INTO THE TRI CITIES
REGION. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A WEST TO EAST 850-700MB THETA E AXIS.  THE LINE
OF TSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT STREAMLINES (MOST SPECIFICALLY
THE ONE OVER MIDLAND AND SAGINAW COUNTIES) HAS BEEN SLOW TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND HAS BEEN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST
MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER THE TRI CITIES WHERE A WIDE
BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WEAK 850-300MB MEAN FLOW AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8
INCHES. THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
WITHIN ALONG THIS NORTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS.
WITH THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR BOTH STALLING AND TRAINING OF
CONVECTION REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE INNOCUOUS CVA
FORCING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OAKLAND AND
MACOMB COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THE EVENING
AND TONIGHT FORECAST...WITH RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE VERY POOR. THE
MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN
21-08Z.

THE LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDGUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSITION OF GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STATE OF
CONVECTION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE TIED TO DEFORMATION WITHIN
THE UPPER CIRCULATION AND WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. THE
12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS PLACE THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WITH A REASONABLY POSITIONED QPF MAX
ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE COMING OFF THE DIURNAL HEATING MINIMUM
ALTHOUGH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN OVERACHIEVE IN TERMS OF
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PLAN TO ALLOW SHORT TERM TRENDS TO
GUIDE THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN FOCUS LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. GREATEST
COVERAGE THEN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AGAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITHIN THE WEAK WIND PROFILE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION. PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
MUCH LIKE TODAY BUT LIKELY NOT WITH AS MUCH ORGANIZATION.

THE TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
UPPER CIRCULATION KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THE WAVE TO DAMPEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE PLACEMENT PROBLEMATIC FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP HOT...HUMID DAYS AND
STICKY NIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP GARNER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT FRONT BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MI EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. ONCE THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE AREA
BEFORE EXITING INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 217 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND THERMAL ADVECTION SUPPORT OCCURRING ON
THE SOUTHEAST FORWARD FLANK OF MCS IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
CONTINUED ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT. A STALLING OUT OF PARENT FORCING ALOFT DOES
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO
INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL 00-12Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-069-070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 032029
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
429 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MCS REMNANTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
SECOND PV ANOMALY NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL STALLING COMPONENT TO THE
INNOCUOUS AND VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALOFT. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION
THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN THE SLUGGISH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS.

FOCUS FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS OCCURRED
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD INTO THE TRI CITIES
REGION. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A WEST TO EAST 850-700MB THETA E AXIS.  THE LINE
OF TSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT STREAMLINES (MOST SPECIFICALLY
THE ONE OVER MIDLAND AND SAGINAW COUNTIES) HAS BEEN SLOW TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND HAS BEEN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST
MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER THE TRI CITIES WHERE A WIDE
BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WEAK 850-300MB MEAN FLOW AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8
INCHES. THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
WITHIN ALONG THIS NORTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS.
WITH THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR BOTH STALLING AND TRAINING OF
CONVECTION REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE INNOCUOUS CVA
FORCING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OAKLAND AND
MACOMB COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THE EVENING
AND TONIGHT FORECAST...WITH RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE VERY POOR. THE
MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN
21-08Z.

THE LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDGUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSITION OF GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STATE OF
CONVECTION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE TIED TO DEFORMATION WITHIN
THE UPPER CIRCULATION AND WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. THE
12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS PLACE THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WITH A REASONABLY POSITIONED QPF MAX
ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE COMING OFF THE DIURNAL HEATING MINIMUM
ALTHOUGH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN OVERACHIEVE IN TERMS OF
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PLAN TO ALLOW SHORT TERM TRENDS TO
GUIDE THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN FOCUS LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. GREATEST
COVERAGE THEN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AGAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITHIN THE WEAK WIND PROFILE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION. PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
MUCH LIKE TODAY BUT LIKELY NOT WITH AS MUCH ORGANIZATION.

THE TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
UPPER CIRCULATION KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THE WAVE TO DAMPEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE PLACEMENT PROBLEMATIC FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP HOT...HUMID DAYS AND
STICKY NIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP GARNER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT FRONT BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MI EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. ONCE THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE AREA
BEFORE EXITING INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 217 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND THERMAL ADVECTION SUPPORT OCCURRING ON
THE SOUTHEAST FORWARD FLANK OF MCS IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
CONTINUED ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT. A STALLING OUT OF PARENT FORCING ALOFT DOES
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO
INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL 00-12Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-069-070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 032029
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
429 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MCS REMNANTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
SECOND PV ANOMALY NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL STALLING COMPONENT TO THE
INNOCUOUS AND VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALOFT. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION
THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN THE SLUGGISH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS.

FOCUS FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS OCCURRED
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD INTO THE TRI CITIES
REGION. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A WEST TO EAST 850-700MB THETA E AXIS.  THE LINE
OF TSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT STREAMLINES (MOST SPECIFICALLY
THE ONE OVER MIDLAND AND SAGINAW COUNTIES) HAS BEEN SLOW TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND HAS BEEN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST
MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER THE TRI CITIES WHERE A WIDE
BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WEAK 850-300MB MEAN FLOW AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8
INCHES. THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
WITHIN ALONG THIS NORTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS.
WITH THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR BOTH STALLING AND TRAINING OF
CONVECTION REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE INNOCUOUS CVA
FORCING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OAKLAND AND
MACOMB COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THE EVENING
AND TONIGHT FORECAST...WITH RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE VERY POOR. THE
MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN
21-08Z.

THE LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDGUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSITION OF GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STATE OF
CONVECTION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE TIED TO DEFORMATION WITHIN
THE UPPER CIRCULATION AND WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. THE
12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS PLACE THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WITH A REASONABLY POSITIONED QPF MAX
ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE COMING OFF THE DIURNAL HEATING MINIMUM
ALTHOUGH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN OVERACHIEVE IN TERMS OF
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PLAN TO ALLOW SHORT TERM TRENDS TO
GUIDE THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN FOCUS LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. GREATEST
COVERAGE THEN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AGAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITHIN THE WEAK WIND PROFILE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION. PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
MUCH LIKE TODAY BUT LIKELY NOT WITH AS MUCH ORGANIZATION.

THE TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
UPPER CIRCULATION KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THE WAVE TO DAMPEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE PLACEMENT PROBLEMATIC FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP HOT...HUMID DAYS AND
STICKY NIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP GARNER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT FRONT BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MI EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. ONCE THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE AREA
BEFORE EXITING INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 217 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND THERMAL ADVECTION SUPPORT OCCURRING ON
THE SOUTHEAST FORWARD FLANK OF MCS IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
CONTINUED ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT. A STALLING OUT OF PARENT FORCING ALOFT DOES
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO
INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL 00-12Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-069-070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 032029
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
429 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MCS REMNANTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
SECOND PV ANOMALY NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL STALLING COMPONENT TO THE
INNOCUOUS AND VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALOFT. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION
THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN THE SLUGGISH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS.

FOCUS FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS OCCURRED
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD INTO THE TRI CITIES
REGION. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A WEST TO EAST 850-700MB THETA E AXIS.  THE LINE
OF TSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT STREAMLINES (MOST SPECIFICALLY
THE ONE OVER MIDLAND AND SAGINAW COUNTIES) HAS BEEN SLOW TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND HAS BEEN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST
MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER THE TRI CITIES WHERE A WIDE
BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WEAK 850-300MB MEAN FLOW AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8
INCHES. THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
WITHIN ALONG THIS NORTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS.
WITH THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR BOTH STALLING AND TRAINING OF
CONVECTION REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE INNOCUOUS CVA
FORCING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OAKLAND AND
MACOMB COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THE EVENING
AND TONIGHT FORECAST...WITH RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE VERY POOR. THE
MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN
21-08Z.

THE LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDGUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSITION OF GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STATE OF
CONVECTION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE TIED TO DEFORMATION WITHIN
THE UPPER CIRCULATION AND WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. THE
12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS PLACE THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WITH A REASONABLY POSITIONED QPF MAX
ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE COMING OFF THE DIURNAL HEATING MINIMUM
ALTHOUGH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN OVERACHIEVE IN TERMS OF
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PLAN TO ALLOW SHORT TERM TRENDS TO
GUIDE THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN FOCUS LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. GREATEST
COVERAGE THEN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AGAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITHIN THE WEAK WIND PROFILE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION. PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
MUCH LIKE TODAY BUT LIKELY NOT WITH AS MUCH ORGANIZATION.

THE TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
UPPER CIRCULATION KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THE WAVE TO DAMPEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE PLACEMENT PROBLEMATIC FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP HOT...HUMID DAYS AND
STICKY NIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP GARNER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT FRONT BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MI EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. ONCE THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE AREA
BEFORE EXITING INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 217 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND THERMAL ADVECTION SUPPORT OCCURRING ON
THE SOUTHEAST FORWARD FLANK OF MCS IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
CONTINUED ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT. A STALLING OUT OF PARENT FORCING ALOFT DOES
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO
INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL 00-12Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-069-070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TEH SRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI...ON THE FORWARD
FLANK OF THE RIDGE...WAS VERY SLOWLY EDING TO THE SE. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC AND NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN LIGHT E TO NE FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SCT-BKN CU INLAND CNTRL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE CU WILL FADE
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...SOME MID CLOUS AROUND THD
PERSISTENT LOW MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE SE. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN LOWER
60S...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP MINS TO AROUND 60...COOLEST
OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF. SO...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CNTRL.

FRI...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MI MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL
LINGER...UPPER MI WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND
80...WITH LOWER READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHILE MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED AT
KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE AND IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRI WITH NE FLOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3
FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN
20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TEH SRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI...ON THE FORWARD
FLANK OF THE RIDGE...WAS VERY SLOWLY EDING TO THE SE. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC AND NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN LIGHT E TO NE FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SCT-BKN CU INLAND CNTRL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE CU WILL FADE
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...SOME MID CLOUS AROUND THD
PERSISTENT LOW MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE SE. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN LOWER
60S...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP MINS TO AROUND 60...COOLEST
OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF. SO...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CNTRL.

FRI...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MI MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL
LINGER...UPPER MI WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND
80...WITH LOWER READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHILE MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED AT
KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE AND IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRI WITH NE FLOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3
FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN
20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TEH SRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI...ON THE FORWARD
FLANK OF THE RIDGE...WAS VERY SLOWLY EDING TO THE SE. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC AND NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN LIGHT E TO NE FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SCT-BKN CU INLAND CNTRL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE CU WILL FADE
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...SOME MID CLOUS AROUND THD
PERSISTENT LOW MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE SE. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN LOWER
60S...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP MINS TO AROUND 60...COOLEST
OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF. SO...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CNTRL.

FRI...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MI MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL
LINGER...UPPER MI WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND
80...WITH LOWER READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHILE MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED AT
KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE AND IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRI WITH NE FLOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3
FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN
20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TEH SRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI...ON THE FORWARD
FLANK OF THE RIDGE...WAS VERY SLOWLY EDING TO THE SE. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC AND NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN LIGHT E TO NE FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SCT-BKN CU INLAND CNTRL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE CU WILL FADE
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...SOME MID CLOUS AROUND THD
PERSISTENT LOW MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE SE. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN LOWER
60S...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP MINS TO AROUND 60...COOLEST
OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF. SO...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CNTRL.

FRI...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MI MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL
LINGER...UPPER MI WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND
80...WITH LOWER READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHILE MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED AT
KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE AND IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRI WITH NE FLOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3
FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN
20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TEH SRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI...ON THE FORWARD
FLANK OF THE RIDGE...WAS VERY SLOWLY EDING TO THE SE. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC AND NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN LIGHT E TO NE FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SCT-BKN CU INLAND CNTRL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE CU WILL FADE
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...SOME MID CLOUS AROUND THD
PERSISTENT LOW MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE SE. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN LOWER
60S...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP MINS TO AROUND 60...COOLEST
OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF. SO...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CNTRL.

FRI...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MI MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL
LINGER...UPPER MI WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND
80...WITH LOWER READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHILE MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED AT
KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE AND IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRI WITH NE FLOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3
FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN
20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031956
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
STORMS IN GRATIOT AND MONTCALM COUNTIES ARE SHOWING PERSISTENT
ROTATION AS THEY MOVE INTO A REGION OF HIGH STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY WITH BACKED SFC WINDS COURTESY OF EARLIER CONVECTION.

ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS IN BARRY AND EATON COUNTIES COULD PULSE UP
TO SEVERE LEVELS AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD HIGHS
AROUND 80 FRIDAY BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS BACK TO THE MID 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM MOUNT PLEASANT WEST TO NEWAYGO COUNTY. THE SECOND
IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM NEAR ST JOHNS TO MIDDLEVILLE. THE SOUTHERN
LINE APPEARS TO BE NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS WASHING OUT.
FARTHER NORTH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS IS ENABLING A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. AS THE SUN SETS WE/LL LOSE SOME
INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE A BIT. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 15KTS ARE PROGD FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA SO WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
SVR STORMS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE OR TWO DUE TO DECENT
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT MAY BRING COPIOUS
RAINS FROM MONDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE BLENDED FORECAST...MAINLY TO SLOW
THE FRONT DOWN A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK PER THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF THEN
END THE CHANCE FOR POPS LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES
ON. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION AND HIGH PWATS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL FROM MONDAY TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND 80 TO NEAR 90 DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS ARE. WENT
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR.
MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE VFR. THEN WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
ONSHORE FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031956
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
STORMS IN GRATIOT AND MONTCALM COUNTIES ARE SHOWING PERSISTENT
ROTATION AS THEY MOVE INTO A REGION OF HIGH STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY WITH BACKED SFC WINDS COURTESY OF EARLIER CONVECTION.

ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS IN BARRY AND EATON COUNTIES COULD PULSE UP
TO SEVERE LEVELS AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD HIGHS
AROUND 80 FRIDAY BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS BACK TO THE MID 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM MOUNT PLEASANT WEST TO NEWAYGO COUNTY. THE SECOND
IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM NEAR ST JOHNS TO MIDDLEVILLE. THE SOUTHERN
LINE APPEARS TO BE NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS WASHING OUT.
FARTHER NORTH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS IS ENABLING A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. AS THE SUN SETS WE/LL LOSE SOME
INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE A BIT. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 15KTS ARE PROGD FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA SO WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
SVR STORMS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE OR TWO DUE TO DECENT
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT MAY BRING COPIOUS
RAINS FROM MONDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE BLENDED FORECAST...MAINLY TO SLOW
THE FRONT DOWN A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK PER THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF THEN
END THE CHANCE FOR POPS LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES
ON. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION AND HIGH PWATS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL FROM MONDAY TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND 80 TO NEAR 90 DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS ARE. WENT
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR.
MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE VFR. THEN WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
ONSHORE FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031946
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST. BROAD AREA OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH
DEFORMATION DRIVEN LIGHTER RAINS/MIST AND LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
BEHIND IT. SIGNFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING AT ALL SITES...MINUS KPLN.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK OVERHEAD
WAVE SLOWLY MEANDERS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION IS VERY LOW TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...SO LEFT SPECIFIC MENTION OF SUCH OUT OF ALL
TAFS. BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INTO IFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS MAY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031946
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST. BROAD AREA OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH
DEFORMATION DRIVEN LIGHTER RAINS/MIST AND LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
BEHIND IT. SIGNFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING AT ALL SITES...MINUS KPLN.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK OVERHEAD
WAVE SLOWLY MEANDERS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION IS VERY LOW TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...SO LEFT SPECIFIC MENTION OF SUCH OUT OF ALL
TAFS. BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INTO IFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS MAY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031946
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST. BROAD AREA OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH
DEFORMATION DRIVEN LIGHTER RAINS/MIST AND LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
BEHIND IT. SIGNFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING AT ALL SITES...MINUS KPLN.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK OVERHEAD
WAVE SLOWLY MEANDERS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION IS VERY LOW TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...SO LEFT SPECIFIC MENTION OF SUCH OUT OF ALL
TAFS. BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INTO IFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS MAY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031946
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: JUST WOW! HAD TO TAKE THE
PERFECT SET-UP TO DESTROY WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARM SUMMER
DAY...AND IT INDEED HAPPENED! CULPRIT BEHIND THIS MESS IS CUT OFF
AND CONVECTIVELY AGITATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION(S) ROTATING
OVERHEAD...ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. LEAD MCV
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXES OF H8-H7
CIRCULATIONS. ABOVE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE
TONIGHT AS LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT.

DETAILS: NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR SURE. DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY TIED TO ALL
INSTABILITY BEING LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERHEAD SYSTEM
ITSELF IS WEAKENING...WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH LACK
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. REALLY FEEL CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS PIVOTING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. REALLY NOT SURE
ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDER THREAT WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES GOING MUCH OF NOWHERE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING
OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/.  WITH PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANOTHER "TROPICAL AIRMASS" TYPE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.  WE MAY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH DEEP E/SE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH...WITH RESIDUAL
BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.  CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES - ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE MORE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES VERY CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THEY WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  WILL
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY /WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST/.  HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING TOWARD AGREEMENT
WITH ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. FINER DETAILS WITH ARRIVAL WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS IT GETS INTO THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THIS AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST. BROAD AREA OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH
DEFORMATION DRIVEN LIGHTER RAINS/MIST AND LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
BEHIND IT. SIGNFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING AT ALL SITES...MINUS KPLN.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK OVERHEAD
WAVE SLOWLY MEANDERS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION IS VERY LOW TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...SO LEFT SPECIFIC MENTION OF SUCH OUT OF ALL
TAFS. BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INTO IFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS MAY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD HIGHS
AROUND 80 FRIDAY BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS BACK TO THE MID 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM MOUNT PLEASANT WEST TO NEWAYGO COUNTY. THE SECOND
IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM NEAR ST JOHNS TO MIDDLEVILLE. THE SOUTHERN
LINE APPEARS TO BE NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS WASHING OUT.
FARTHER NORTH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS IS ENABLING A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. AS THE SUN SETS WE/LL LOSE SOME
INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE A BIT. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 15KTS ARE PROGD FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA SO WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
SVR STORMS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE OR TWO DUE TO DECENT
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT MAY BRING COPIOUS
RAINS FROM MONDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE BLENDED FORECAST...MAINLY TO SLOW
THE FRONT DOWN A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK PER THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF THEN
END THE CHANCE FOR POPS LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES
ON. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION AND HIGH PWATS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL FROM MONDAY TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND 80 TO NEAR 90 DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS ARE. WENT
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR.
MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE VFR. THEN WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
ONSHORE FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD HIGHS
AROUND 80 FRIDAY BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS BACK TO THE MID 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM MOUNT PLEASANT WEST TO NEWAYGO COUNTY. THE SECOND
IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM NEAR ST JOHNS TO MIDDLEVILLE. THE SOUTHERN
LINE APPEARS TO BE NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS WASHING OUT.
FARTHER NORTH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS IS ENABLING A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. AS THE SUN SETS WE/LL LOSE SOME
INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE A BIT. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 15KTS ARE PROGD FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA SO WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
SVR STORMS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE OR TWO DUE TO DECENT
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT MAY BRING COPIOUS
RAINS FROM MONDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE BLENDED FORECAST...MAINLY TO SLOW
THE FRONT DOWN A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK PER THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF THEN
END THE CHANCE FOR POPS LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES
ON. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION AND HIGH PWATS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL FROM MONDAY TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND 80 TO NEAR 90 DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS ARE. WENT
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR.
MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE VFR. THEN WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
ONSHORE FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD HIGHS
AROUND 80 FRIDAY BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS BACK TO THE MID 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM MOUNT PLEASANT WEST TO NEWAYGO COUNTY. THE SECOND
IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM NEAR ST JOHNS TO MIDDLEVILLE. THE SOUTHERN
LINE APPEARS TO BE NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS WASHING OUT.
FARTHER NORTH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS IS ENABLING A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. AS THE SUN SETS WE/LL LOSE SOME
INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE A BIT. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 15KTS ARE PROGD FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA SO WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
SVR STORMS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE OR TWO DUE TO DECENT
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT MAY BRING COPIOUS
RAINS FROM MONDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE BLENDED FORECAST...MAINLY TO SLOW
THE FRONT DOWN A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK PER THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF THEN
END THE CHANCE FOR POPS LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES
ON. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION AND HIGH PWATS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL FROM MONDAY TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND 80 TO NEAR 90 DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS ARE. WENT
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR.
MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE VFR. THEN WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
ONSHORE FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KMQT 031917
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHILE MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED AT
KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MRD



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031917
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHILE MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED AT
KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MRD




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031817
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
217 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...

DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND THERMAL ADVECTION SUPPORT OCCURRING ON
THE SOUTHEAST FORWARD FLANK OF MCS IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
CONTINUED ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT. A STALLING OUT OF PARENT FORCING ALOFT DOES
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO
INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL 00-12Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1239 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATE...

DUAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISMS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE
SMALL MCS IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN IS TIED TO THE FIRST LOWER
COLUMN PV ANOMALY...THE SECOND IS THE SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION THAT
IS NOW DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE BIG PICTURE...LOWER
DELTA X SOLUTIONS/GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A PHASING OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND A SUBSEQUENT STALLING OF THE COMBINED PV ANOMALY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MCS THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CONTINUES TO
MAKE SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD. A LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF REGIONAL Z
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH TIME
ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS. THIS SOUTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD AT LEAST BE
PARTIALLY SUPPORTIVE BY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NWP GUIDANCE WITH A BULLISH HRRR AND
BOTH NAM/ECMWF SUPPORT BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF AN AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION TO THE
STRATUS/CIRRUS/CU DECK EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TO REMAIN DRAPED THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FORECAST IS SKEWED ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE DOES REMAIN A SLIVER
OF DOUBT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN COMPLETELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND IMPACT DETROIT METRO DIRECTLY. STORM
BEHAVIOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OF A PULSE TYPE NATURE
WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED LINE TYPE FEATURES. THEREFORE...A LOW
END DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERHAPS BE A CIRCUMSTANCE OF CONSTRUCTIVE CELL MERGERS OR
PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS.

A CONCERNING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE DIRECTION OF ADVERTISED PHASING AND
STALLING OUT OF PV MAX OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE AT APPROXIMATELY 1.8
INCHES. SOME SAMPLED RAINFALL RATES EARLIER OFF OF RADAR BASED
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT SUGGESTS 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN ROUGHLY 40 MINUTES. WILL BE MONITORING ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANY TRAINING OR STATIONARY BEHAVIOR OF THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031817
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
217 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...

DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND THERMAL ADVECTION SUPPORT OCCURRING ON
THE SOUTHEAST FORWARD FLANK OF MCS IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
CONTINUED ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT. A STALLING OUT OF PARENT FORCING ALOFT DOES
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO
INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL 00-12Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1239 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATE...

DUAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISMS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE
SMALL MCS IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN IS TIED TO THE FIRST LOWER
COLUMN PV ANOMALY...THE SECOND IS THE SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION THAT
IS NOW DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE BIG PICTURE...LOWER
DELTA X SOLUTIONS/GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A PHASING OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND A SUBSEQUENT STALLING OF THE COMBINED PV ANOMALY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MCS THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CONTINUES TO
MAKE SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD. A LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF REGIONAL Z
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH TIME
ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS. THIS SOUTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD AT LEAST BE
PARTIALLY SUPPORTIVE BY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NWP GUIDANCE WITH A BULLISH HRRR AND
BOTH NAM/ECMWF SUPPORT BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF AN AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION TO THE
STRATUS/CIRRUS/CU DECK EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TO REMAIN DRAPED THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FORECAST IS SKEWED ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE DOES REMAIN A SLIVER
OF DOUBT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN COMPLETELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND IMPACT DETROIT METRO DIRECTLY. STORM
BEHAVIOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OF A PULSE TYPE NATURE
WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED LINE TYPE FEATURES. THEREFORE...A LOW
END DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERHAPS BE A CIRCUMSTANCE OF CONSTRUCTIVE CELL MERGERS OR
PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS.

A CONCERNING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE DIRECTION OF ADVERTISED PHASING AND
STALLING OUT OF PV MAX OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE AT APPROXIMATELY 1.8
INCHES. SOME SAMPLED RAINFALL RATES EARLIER OFF OF RADAR BASED
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT SUGGESTS 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN ROUGHLY 40 MINUTES. WILL BE MONITORING ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANY TRAINING OR STATIONARY BEHAVIOR OF THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031817
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
217 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...

DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND THERMAL ADVECTION SUPPORT OCCURRING ON
THE SOUTHEAST FORWARD FLANK OF MCS IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
CONTINUED ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT. A STALLING OUT OF PARENT FORCING ALOFT DOES
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO
INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL 00-12Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1239 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATE...

DUAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISMS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE
SMALL MCS IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN IS TIED TO THE FIRST LOWER
COLUMN PV ANOMALY...THE SECOND IS THE SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION THAT
IS NOW DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE BIG PICTURE...LOWER
DELTA X SOLUTIONS/GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A PHASING OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND A SUBSEQUENT STALLING OF THE COMBINED PV ANOMALY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MCS THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CONTINUES TO
MAKE SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD. A LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF REGIONAL Z
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH TIME
ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS. THIS SOUTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD AT LEAST BE
PARTIALLY SUPPORTIVE BY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NWP GUIDANCE WITH A BULLISH HRRR AND
BOTH NAM/ECMWF SUPPORT BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF AN AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION TO THE
STRATUS/CIRRUS/CU DECK EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TO REMAIN DRAPED THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FORECAST IS SKEWED ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE DOES REMAIN A SLIVER
OF DOUBT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN COMPLETELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND IMPACT DETROIT METRO DIRECTLY. STORM
BEHAVIOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OF A PULSE TYPE NATURE
WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED LINE TYPE FEATURES. THEREFORE...A LOW
END DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERHAPS BE A CIRCUMSTANCE OF CONSTRUCTIVE CELL MERGERS OR
PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS.

A CONCERNING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE DIRECTION OF ADVERTISED PHASING AND
STALLING OUT OF PV MAX OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE AT APPROXIMATELY 1.8
INCHES. SOME SAMPLED RAINFALL RATES EARLIER OFF OF RADAR BASED
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT SUGGESTS 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN ROUGHLY 40 MINUTES. WILL BE MONITORING ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANY TRAINING OR STATIONARY BEHAVIOR OF THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031817
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
217 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...

DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND THERMAL ADVECTION SUPPORT OCCURRING ON
THE SOUTHEAST FORWARD FLANK OF MCS IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
CONTINUED ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT. A STALLING OUT OF PARENT FORCING ALOFT DOES
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO
INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL 00-12Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1239 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATE...

DUAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISMS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE
SMALL MCS IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN IS TIED TO THE FIRST LOWER
COLUMN PV ANOMALY...THE SECOND IS THE SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION THAT
IS NOW DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE BIG PICTURE...LOWER
DELTA X SOLUTIONS/GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A PHASING OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND A SUBSEQUENT STALLING OF THE COMBINED PV ANOMALY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MCS THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CONTINUES TO
MAKE SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD. A LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF REGIONAL Z
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH TIME
ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS. THIS SOUTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD AT LEAST BE
PARTIALLY SUPPORTIVE BY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NWP GUIDANCE WITH A BULLISH HRRR AND
BOTH NAM/ECMWF SUPPORT BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF AN AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION TO THE
STRATUS/CIRRUS/CU DECK EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TO REMAIN DRAPED THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FORECAST IS SKEWED ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE DOES REMAIN A SLIVER
OF DOUBT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN COMPLETELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND IMPACT DETROIT METRO DIRECTLY. STORM
BEHAVIOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OF A PULSE TYPE NATURE
WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED LINE TYPE FEATURES. THEREFORE...A LOW
END DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERHAPS BE A CIRCUMSTANCE OF CONSTRUCTIVE CELL MERGERS OR
PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS.

A CONCERNING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE DIRECTION OF ADVERTISED PHASING AND
STALLING OUT OF PV MAX OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE AT APPROXIMATELY 1.8
INCHES. SOME SAMPLED RAINFALL RATES EARLIER OFF OF RADAR BASED
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT SUGGESTS 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN ROUGHLY 40 MINUTES. WILL BE MONITORING ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANY TRAINING OR STATIONARY BEHAVIOR OF THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031817
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
217 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...

DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND THERMAL ADVECTION SUPPORT OCCURRING ON
THE SOUTHEAST FORWARD FLANK OF MCS IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
CONTINUED ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT. A STALLING OUT OF PARENT FORCING ALOFT DOES
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO
INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL 00-12Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1239 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATE...

DUAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISMS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE
SMALL MCS IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN IS TIED TO THE FIRST LOWER
COLUMN PV ANOMALY...THE SECOND IS THE SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION THAT
IS NOW DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE BIG PICTURE...LOWER
DELTA X SOLUTIONS/GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A PHASING OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND A SUBSEQUENT STALLING OF THE COMBINED PV ANOMALY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MCS THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CONTINUES TO
MAKE SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD. A LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF REGIONAL Z
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH TIME
ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS. THIS SOUTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD AT LEAST BE
PARTIALLY SUPPORTIVE BY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NWP GUIDANCE WITH A BULLISH HRRR AND
BOTH NAM/ECMWF SUPPORT BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF AN AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION TO THE
STRATUS/CIRRUS/CU DECK EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TO REMAIN DRAPED THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FORECAST IS SKEWED ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE DOES REMAIN A SLIVER
OF DOUBT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN COMPLETELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND IMPACT DETROIT METRO DIRECTLY. STORM
BEHAVIOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OF A PULSE TYPE NATURE
WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED LINE TYPE FEATURES. THEREFORE...A LOW
END DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERHAPS BE A CIRCUMSTANCE OF CONSTRUCTIVE CELL MERGERS OR
PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS.

A CONCERNING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE DIRECTION OF ADVERTISED PHASING AND
STALLING OUT OF PV MAX OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE AT APPROXIMATELY 1.8
INCHES. SOME SAMPLED RAINFALL RATES EARLIER OFF OF RADAR BASED
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT SUGGESTS 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN ROUGHLY 40 MINUTES. WILL BE MONITORING ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANY TRAINING OR STATIONARY BEHAVIOR OF THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031817
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
217 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...

DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND THERMAL ADVECTION SUPPORT OCCURRING ON
THE SOUTHEAST FORWARD FLANK OF MCS IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
CONTINUED ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT. A STALLING OUT OF PARENT FORCING ALOFT DOES
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO
INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL 00-12Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1239 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATE...

DUAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISMS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE
SMALL MCS IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN IS TIED TO THE FIRST LOWER
COLUMN PV ANOMALY...THE SECOND IS THE SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION THAT
IS NOW DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE BIG PICTURE...LOWER
DELTA X SOLUTIONS/GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A PHASING OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND A SUBSEQUENT STALLING OF THE COMBINED PV ANOMALY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MCS THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CONTINUES TO
MAKE SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD. A LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF REGIONAL Z
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH TIME
ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS. THIS SOUTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD AT LEAST BE
PARTIALLY SUPPORTIVE BY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NWP GUIDANCE WITH A BULLISH HRRR AND
BOTH NAM/ECMWF SUPPORT BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF AN AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION TO THE
STRATUS/CIRRUS/CU DECK EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TO REMAIN DRAPED THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FORECAST IS SKEWED ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE DOES REMAIN A SLIVER
OF DOUBT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN COMPLETELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND IMPACT DETROIT METRO DIRECTLY. STORM
BEHAVIOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OF A PULSE TYPE NATURE
WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED LINE TYPE FEATURES. THEREFORE...A LOW
END DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERHAPS BE A CIRCUMSTANCE OF CONSTRUCTIVE CELL MERGERS OR
PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS.

A CONCERNING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE DIRECTION OF ADVERTISED PHASING AND
STALLING OUT OF PV MAX OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE AT APPROXIMATELY 1.8
INCHES. SOME SAMPLED RAINFALL RATES EARLIER OFF OF RADAR BASED
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT SUGGESTS 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN ROUGHLY 40 MINUTES. WILL BE MONITORING ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANY TRAINING OR STATIONARY BEHAVIOR OF THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031804
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR.
MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE VFR. THEN WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031804
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR.
MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE VFR. THEN WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031804
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR.
MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE VFR. THEN WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031804
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR.
MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE VFR. THEN WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031758
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
158 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE WET MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MCV ENHANCED
MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH REPORTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST CELLS. CURRENT SHOWER
COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN (ALREADY
EVIDENT) IN MAX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS ON NORTH SIDE OF H7-H8
CLOSED CIRCULATION ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...SHOWERS/STORMS A PRETTY GOOD BET AT ANY POINT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN LOWER. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUB 6C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN WITH
INCREASINGLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS..AND
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED MORNING TEMP RESPONSE...WILL GO AHEAD A CUT HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST. BROAD AREA OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH
DEFORMATION DRIVEN LIGHTER RAINS/MIST AND LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
BEHIND IT. SIGNFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING AT ALL SITES...MINUS KPLN.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK OVERHEAD
WAVE SLOWLY MEANDERS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION IS VERY LOW TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...SO LEFT SPECIFIC MENTION OF SUCH OUT OF ALL
TAFS. BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INTO IFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS MAY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031758
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
158 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE WET MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MCV ENHANCED
MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH REPORTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST CELLS. CURRENT SHOWER
COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN (ALREADY
EVIDENT) IN MAX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS ON NORTH SIDE OF H7-H8
CLOSED CIRCULATION ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...SHOWERS/STORMS A PRETTY GOOD BET AT ANY POINT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN LOWER. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUB 6C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN WITH
INCREASINGLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS..AND
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED MORNING TEMP RESPONSE...WILL GO AHEAD A CUT HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST. BROAD AREA OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH
DEFORMATION DRIVEN LIGHTER RAINS/MIST AND LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
BEHIND IT. SIGNFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING AT ALL SITES...MINUS KPLN.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK OVERHEAD
WAVE SLOWLY MEANDERS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION IS VERY LOW TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...SO LEFT SPECIFIC MENTION OF SUCH OUT OF ALL
TAFS. BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INTO IFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS MAY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031758
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
158 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE WET MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MCV ENHANCED
MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH REPORTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST CELLS. CURRENT SHOWER
COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN (ALREADY
EVIDENT) IN MAX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS ON NORTH SIDE OF H7-H8
CLOSED CIRCULATION ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...SHOWERS/STORMS A PRETTY GOOD BET AT ANY POINT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN LOWER. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUB 6C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN WITH
INCREASINGLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS..AND
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED MORNING TEMP RESPONSE...WILL GO AHEAD A CUT HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST. BROAD AREA OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH
DEFORMATION DRIVEN LIGHTER RAINS/MIST AND LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
BEHIND IT. SIGNFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING AT ALL SITES...MINUS KPLN.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK OVERHEAD
WAVE SLOWLY MEANDERS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION IS VERY LOW TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...SO LEFT SPECIFIC MENTION OF SUCH OUT OF ALL
TAFS. BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INTO IFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS MAY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031758
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
158 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE WET MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MCV ENHANCED
MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH REPORTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST CELLS. CURRENT SHOWER
COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN (ALREADY
EVIDENT) IN MAX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS ON NORTH SIDE OF H7-H8
CLOSED CIRCULATION ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...SHOWERS/STORMS A PRETTY GOOD BET AT ANY POINT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN LOWER. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUB 6C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN WITH
INCREASINGLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS..AND
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED MORNING TEMP RESPONSE...WILL GO AHEAD A CUT HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST. BROAD AREA OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH
DEFORMATION DRIVEN LIGHTER RAINS/MIST AND LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
BEHIND IT. SIGNFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING AT ALL SITES...MINUS KPLN.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK OVERHEAD
WAVE SLOWLY MEANDERS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION IS VERY LOW TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...SO LEFT SPECIFIC MENTION OF SUCH OUT OF ALL
TAFS. BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INTO IFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS MAY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031758
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
158 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE WET MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MCV ENHANCED
MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH REPORTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST CELLS. CURRENT SHOWER
COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN (ALREADY
EVIDENT) IN MAX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS ON NORTH SIDE OF H7-H8
CLOSED CIRCULATION ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...SHOWERS/STORMS A PRETTY GOOD BET AT ANY POINT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN LOWER. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUB 6C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN WITH
INCREASINGLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS..AND
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED MORNING TEMP RESPONSE...WILL GO AHEAD A CUT HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST. BROAD AREA OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH
DEFORMATION DRIVEN LIGHTER RAINS/MIST AND LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
BEHIND IT. SIGNFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING AT ALL SITES...MINUS KPLN.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK OVERHEAD
WAVE SLOWLY MEANDERS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION IS VERY LOW TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...SO LEFT SPECIFIC MENTION OF SUCH OUT OF ALL
TAFS. BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INTO IFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS MAY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031737
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRIME CONCERNS IN LONG TERM INCLUDE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY AND MAX TEMPS. FOG WILL ALSO BE ISSUE
AT TIMES WITH HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
LABOR DAY.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. REMNANT OF
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ATTM MEANDERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND MAY DRIFT TOWARD EAST CWA BY EVENING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TOO
DRY FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH GENERAL EAST SFC WINDS COMING OUT OF HIGH
OVER QUEBEC. SLIGHTLY DRIER TOO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DWPNTS
INSTEAD OF UPR 60S-NEAR 70. COULD BE FOG AROUND TO START DAY BUT
THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HELD DOWN BY OVERALL FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. EXPECT MID 80S INTERIOR WEST AND UPR 70S NEAR 80 OVER REST OF
CWA.

EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE DRAWS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO
BRING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITY BACK TO THE AREA...ADVECTING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SW MEAN LAYER H85-H3 WINDS. EDGE OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ECMWF AND GFS ALSO
BOTH SHOWING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MN AND LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. INCREASING H85 JET
RAMPS UP MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER MN SO HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD THEM INTO FAR WEST
CWA ON SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN VCNTY
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND GIVEN THE HIGHER MUCAPES. MLCAPES ALSO PUSH UP
TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING AFTN SO THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TRY
TO FORM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY AFFECTS FM THE
SHORTWAVE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND TO START DAY AGAIN. SE
WINDS ADDING MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO BEST BET FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. ONCE FOG EVADES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PUSHING 19-20C BY AFTN
AND MORE OF A SOUTH WIND COMPARED TO FRIDAY POINT TO MID-UPR 80S FOR
MOST WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AT SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. MUCAPES REMAIN HIGH AT
1000-2000J/KG FM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. IF
SHORTWAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA PUSH OVER WEST
HALF OF CWA AT LEAST WITH H85-H3 WINDS FM THE WSW. UNLIKE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR SETUP...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER AS
1-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. LOW-LEVEL JET AT H85 OVER 40 KTS
IS AIMED TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AT LEAST WESTERN
FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT SURE IF GREATER MLCAPES WELL TO SW
OF HERE WILL KEEP MAIN SHRA/TSRA THERE SINCE THE SHORTWAVE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH. CARRIED CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CWA...SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
REMOTE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY LATEST DAY3
OUTLOOK FM SPC.

STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES FM ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BOTTOMS OUT AT 990-1000MB OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTINUAL FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA WITHIN H85 JET AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. NEVER
SURE HOW FAR SHRA/TSRA WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT AS WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING FM A YET TO BE DETERMINED SHORTWAVE THERE CAN ALWAYS
BE CAPPING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WEST CWA FOR BETTER
CHANCES AT THIS POINT WITH WSW MEAN LAYER WINDS. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. H85 RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT POINTS TO
READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT AS LONG AS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA DONT DISRUPT
THINGS TOO MUCH. PUT THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY OVER CNTRL CWA
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR
READINGS TO HIT 90 DEGREES WOULD BE BARAGA/BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE/HARVEY/MUNISING.

ALL THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD EASE EAST ACROSS REST OF CWA AS
THE MAIN SFC-H85 FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE AND RIBBON OF
PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MLCAPES OVER
1000J/KG INITIALLY BUT THESE TAIL OFF WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING.
MUCAPES WELL OVER 1000J/KG MAY ALLOW STORMS TO TRY TO BECOME
ELEVATED AFTER BECOMING SFC BASED...BUT THAT IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
TRANSITION. STRONG H85 JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER MUCAPES WILL AID THIS TRANSITION THOUGH. CONSENSUS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS SEEMED FINE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER
POPS ON LABOR DAY END UP BEING OVER EAST HALF WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE EXITING SFC-H85 FRONT. H85 TEMPS DO NOT CRASH
DOWN AS IT LOOKED LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO...SO UPR 70S TO LOW OR
POSSIBLY MID 80S WILL WORK FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY. WARMEST READINGS
CNTRL CWA IRON MTN TO MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. THROUGH THE COOLING IS
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE DRYING IS WITH DWPNTS FALLING OFF INTO THE
50S ON MONDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND DOWN TO AROUND 50 BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE 40S DWPNTS ON TUESDAY AS COOLING
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. EXPECT HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE AND
THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WED. GUSTY WINDS AS THE COOLING OCCURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PRETTY WELL AGREED
UPON BY GFS AND ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHILE MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED AT
KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>243-246-247-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MRD




000
FXUS63 KMQT 031737
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRIME CONCERNS IN LONG TERM INCLUDE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY AND MAX TEMPS. FOG WILL ALSO BE ISSUE
AT TIMES WITH HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
LABOR DAY.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. REMNANT OF
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ATTM MEANDERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND MAY DRIFT TOWARD EAST CWA BY EVENING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TOO
DRY FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH GENERAL EAST SFC WINDS COMING OUT OF HIGH
OVER QUEBEC. SLIGHTLY DRIER TOO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DWPNTS
INSTEAD OF UPR 60S-NEAR 70. COULD BE FOG AROUND TO START DAY BUT
THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HELD DOWN BY OVERALL FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. EXPECT MID 80S INTERIOR WEST AND UPR 70S NEAR 80 OVER REST OF
CWA.

EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE DRAWS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO
BRING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITY BACK TO THE AREA...ADVECTING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SW MEAN LAYER H85-H3 WINDS. EDGE OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ECMWF AND GFS ALSO
BOTH SHOWING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MN AND LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. INCREASING H85 JET
RAMPS UP MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER MN SO HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD THEM INTO FAR WEST
CWA ON SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN VCNTY
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND GIVEN THE HIGHER MUCAPES. MLCAPES ALSO PUSH UP
TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING AFTN SO THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TRY
TO FORM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY AFFECTS FM THE
SHORTWAVE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND TO START DAY AGAIN. SE
WINDS ADDING MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO BEST BET FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. ONCE FOG EVADES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PUSHING 19-20C BY AFTN
AND MORE OF A SOUTH WIND COMPARED TO FRIDAY POINT TO MID-UPR 80S FOR
MOST WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AT SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. MUCAPES REMAIN HIGH AT
1000-2000J/KG FM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. IF
SHORTWAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA PUSH OVER WEST
HALF OF CWA AT LEAST WITH H85-H3 WINDS FM THE WSW. UNLIKE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR SETUP...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER AS
1-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. LOW-LEVEL JET AT H85 OVER 40 KTS
IS AIMED TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AT LEAST WESTERN
FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT SURE IF GREATER MLCAPES WELL TO SW
OF HERE WILL KEEP MAIN SHRA/TSRA THERE SINCE THE SHORTWAVE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH. CARRIED CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CWA...SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
REMOTE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY LATEST DAY3
OUTLOOK FM SPC.

STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES FM ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BOTTOMS OUT AT 990-1000MB OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTINUAL FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA WITHIN H85 JET AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. NEVER
SURE HOW FAR SHRA/TSRA WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT AS WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING FM A YET TO BE DETERMINED SHORTWAVE THERE CAN ALWAYS
BE CAPPING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WEST CWA FOR BETTER
CHANCES AT THIS POINT WITH WSW MEAN LAYER WINDS. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. H85 RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT POINTS TO
READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT AS LONG AS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA DONT DISRUPT
THINGS TOO MUCH. PUT THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY OVER CNTRL CWA
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR
READINGS TO HIT 90 DEGREES WOULD BE BARAGA/BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE/HARVEY/MUNISING.

ALL THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD EASE EAST ACROSS REST OF CWA AS
THE MAIN SFC-H85 FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE AND RIBBON OF
PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MLCAPES OVER
1000J/KG INITIALLY BUT THESE TAIL OFF WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING.
MUCAPES WELL OVER 1000J/KG MAY ALLOW STORMS TO TRY TO BECOME
ELEVATED AFTER BECOMING SFC BASED...BUT THAT IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
TRANSITION. STRONG H85 JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER MUCAPES WILL AID THIS TRANSITION THOUGH. CONSENSUS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS SEEMED FINE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER
POPS ON LABOR DAY END UP BEING OVER EAST HALF WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE EXITING SFC-H85 FRONT. H85 TEMPS DO NOT CRASH
DOWN AS IT LOOKED LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO...SO UPR 70S TO LOW OR
POSSIBLY MID 80S WILL WORK FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY. WARMEST READINGS
CNTRL CWA IRON MTN TO MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. THROUGH THE COOLING IS
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE DRYING IS WITH DWPNTS FALLING OFF INTO THE
50S ON MONDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND DOWN TO AROUND 50 BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE 40S DWPNTS ON TUESDAY AS COOLING
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. EXPECT HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE AND
THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WED. GUSTY WINDS AS THE COOLING OCCURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PRETTY WELL AGREED
UPON BY GFS AND ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHILE MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED AT
KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>243-246-247-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MRD



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031650
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1250 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SPC UPDATED DAY 1 PLACES THE SOUTHERN GRR ZONES IN THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS SFC TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S YIELDING CAPES NEAR 2000.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS SO STORM MODE IS EXPECTED
TO BE PULSE TYPE WITH THE MAIN THREAT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING
STORMS AS TWO INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES WERE OBSERVED WITH SOME OF
THE DEEPER UPDRAFTS EARLIER TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
LEADING TO SOME IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
STORMS FORMING...BUT MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WAS
SOME IFR FOG TO START THE DAY...THAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z.

TONIGHT FOG COULD LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031650
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1250 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SPC UPDATED DAY 1 PLACES THE SOUTHERN GRR ZONES IN THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS SFC TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S YIELDING CAPES NEAR 2000.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS SO STORM MODE IS EXPECTED
TO BE PULSE TYPE WITH THE MAIN THREAT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING
STORMS AS TWO INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES WERE OBSERVED WITH SOME OF
THE DEEPER UPDRAFTS EARLIER TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
LEADING TO SOME IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
STORMS FORMING...BUT MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WAS
SOME IFR FOG TO START THE DAY...THAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z.

TONIGHT FOG COULD LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031639
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1239 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...

DUAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISMS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE
SMALL MCS IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN IS TIED TO THE FIRST LOWER
COLUMN PV ANOMALY...THE SECOND IS THE SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION THAT
IS NOW DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE BIG PICTURE...LOWER
DELTA X SOLUTIONS/GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A PHASING OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND A SUBSEQUENT STALLING OF THE COMBINED PV ANOMALY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MCS THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CONTINUES TO
MAKE SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD. A LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF REGIONAL Z
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH TIME
ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS. THIS SOUTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD AT LEAST BE
PARTIALLY SUPPORTIVE BY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NWP GUIDANCE WITH A BULLISH HRRR AND
BOTH NAM/ECMWF SUPPORT BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF AN AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION TO THE
STRATUS/CIRRUS/CU DECK EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TO REMAIN DRAPED THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FORECAST IS SKEWED ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE DOES REMAIN A SLIVER
OF DOUBT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN COMPLETELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND IMPACT DETROIT METRO DIRECTLY. STORM
BEHAVIOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OF A PULSE TYPE NATURE
WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED LINE TYPE FEATURES. THEREFORE...A LOW
END DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERHAPS BE A CIRCUMSTANCE OF CONSTRUCTIVE CELL MERGERS OR
PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS.

A CONCERNING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE DIRECTION OF ADVERTISED PHASING AND
STALLING OUT OF PV MAX OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE AT APPROXIMATELY 1.8
INCHES. SOME SAMPLED RAINFALL RATES EARLIER OFF OF RADAR BASED
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT SUGGESTS 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN ROUGHLY 40 MINUTES. WILL BE MONITORING ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANY TRAINING OR STATIONARY BEHAVIOR OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 732 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AREAWIDE.  WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO POTENTIAL
COVERAGE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION
TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPANDING COVERAGE OF DIURNAL VFR CU CENTERED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD.  THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
PROSPECTS FOR WET GROUND WITH RECENT RAINFALL WILL BRING A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE
OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH
IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...ALTHOUGH A LOWER PROBABILITY WILL EXIST RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031639
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1239 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...

DUAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISMS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE
SMALL MCS IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN IS TIED TO THE FIRST LOWER
COLUMN PV ANOMALY...THE SECOND IS THE SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION THAT
IS NOW DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE BIG PICTURE...LOWER
DELTA X SOLUTIONS/GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A PHASING OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND A SUBSEQUENT STALLING OF THE COMBINED PV ANOMALY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MCS THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CONTINUES TO
MAKE SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD. A LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF REGIONAL Z
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH TIME
ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS. THIS SOUTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD AT LEAST BE
PARTIALLY SUPPORTIVE BY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NWP GUIDANCE WITH A BULLISH HRRR AND
BOTH NAM/ECMWF SUPPORT BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF AN AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION TO THE
STRATUS/CIRRUS/CU DECK EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TO REMAIN DRAPED THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FORECAST IS SKEWED ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE DOES REMAIN A SLIVER
OF DOUBT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN COMPLETELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND IMPACT DETROIT METRO DIRECTLY. STORM
BEHAVIOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OF A PULSE TYPE NATURE
WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED LINE TYPE FEATURES. THEREFORE...A LOW
END DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERHAPS BE A CIRCUMSTANCE OF CONSTRUCTIVE CELL MERGERS OR
PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS.

A CONCERNING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE DIRECTION OF ADVERTISED PHASING AND
STALLING OUT OF PV MAX OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE AT APPROXIMATELY 1.8
INCHES. SOME SAMPLED RAINFALL RATES EARLIER OFF OF RADAR BASED
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT SUGGESTS 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN ROUGHLY 40 MINUTES. WILL BE MONITORING ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANY TRAINING OR STATIONARY BEHAVIOR OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 732 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AREAWIDE.  WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO POTENTIAL
COVERAGE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION
TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPANDING COVERAGE OF DIURNAL VFR CU CENTERED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD.  THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
PROSPECTS FOR WET GROUND WITH RECENT RAINFALL WILL BRING A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE
OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH
IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...ALTHOUGH A LOWER PROBABILITY WILL EXIST RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031639
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1239 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...

DUAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISMS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE
SMALL MCS IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN IS TIED TO THE FIRST LOWER
COLUMN PV ANOMALY...THE SECOND IS THE SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION THAT
IS NOW DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE BIG PICTURE...LOWER
DELTA X SOLUTIONS/GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A PHASING OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND A SUBSEQUENT STALLING OF THE COMBINED PV ANOMALY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MCS THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CONTINUES TO
MAKE SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD. A LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF REGIONAL Z
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH TIME
ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS. THIS SOUTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD AT LEAST BE
PARTIALLY SUPPORTIVE BY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NWP GUIDANCE WITH A BULLISH HRRR AND
BOTH NAM/ECMWF SUPPORT BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF AN AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION TO THE
STRATUS/CIRRUS/CU DECK EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TO REMAIN DRAPED THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FORECAST IS SKEWED ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE DOES REMAIN A SLIVER
OF DOUBT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN COMPLETELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND IMPACT DETROIT METRO DIRECTLY. STORM
BEHAVIOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OF A PULSE TYPE NATURE
WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED LINE TYPE FEATURES. THEREFORE...A LOW
END DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERHAPS BE A CIRCUMSTANCE OF CONSTRUCTIVE CELL MERGERS OR
PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS.

A CONCERNING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE DIRECTION OF ADVERTISED PHASING AND
STALLING OUT OF PV MAX OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE AT APPROXIMATELY 1.8
INCHES. SOME SAMPLED RAINFALL RATES EARLIER OFF OF RADAR BASED
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT SUGGESTS 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN ROUGHLY 40 MINUTES. WILL BE MONITORING ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANY TRAINING OR STATIONARY BEHAVIOR OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 732 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AREAWIDE.  WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO POTENTIAL
COVERAGE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION
TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPANDING COVERAGE OF DIURNAL VFR CU CENTERED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD.  THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
PROSPECTS FOR WET GROUND WITH RECENT RAINFALL WILL BRING A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE
OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH
IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...ALTHOUGH A LOWER PROBABILITY WILL EXIST RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031639
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1239 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...

DUAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISMS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE
SMALL MCS IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN IS TIED TO THE FIRST LOWER
COLUMN PV ANOMALY...THE SECOND IS THE SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION THAT
IS NOW DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE BIG PICTURE...LOWER
DELTA X SOLUTIONS/GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A PHASING OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND A SUBSEQUENT STALLING OF THE COMBINED PV ANOMALY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MCS THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CONTINUES TO
MAKE SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD. A LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF REGIONAL Z
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH TIME
ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS. THIS SOUTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD AT LEAST BE
PARTIALLY SUPPORTIVE BY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NWP GUIDANCE WITH A BULLISH HRRR AND
BOTH NAM/ECMWF SUPPORT BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF AN AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION TO THE
STRATUS/CIRRUS/CU DECK EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TO REMAIN DRAPED THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FORECAST IS SKEWED ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE DOES REMAIN A SLIVER
OF DOUBT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN COMPLETELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND IMPACT DETROIT METRO DIRECTLY. STORM
BEHAVIOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OF A PULSE TYPE NATURE
WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED LINE TYPE FEATURES. THEREFORE...A LOW
END DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERHAPS BE A CIRCUMSTANCE OF CONSTRUCTIVE CELL MERGERS OR
PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS.

A CONCERNING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE DIRECTION OF ADVERTISED PHASING AND
STALLING OUT OF PV MAX OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE AT APPROXIMATELY 1.8
INCHES. SOME SAMPLED RAINFALL RATES EARLIER OFF OF RADAR BASED
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT SUGGESTS 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN ROUGHLY 40 MINUTES. WILL BE MONITORING ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANY TRAINING OR STATIONARY BEHAVIOR OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 732 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AREAWIDE.  WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO POTENTIAL
COVERAGE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION
TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPANDING COVERAGE OF DIURNAL VFR CU CENTERED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD.  THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
PROSPECTS FOR WET GROUND WITH RECENT RAINFALL WILL BRING A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE
OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH
IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...ALTHOUGH A LOWER PROBABILITY WILL EXIST RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031510
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
LEADING TO SOME IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
STORMS FORMING...BUT MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WAS
SOME IFR FOG TO START THE DAY...THAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z.

TONIGHT FOG COULD LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031510
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
LEADING TO SOME IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
STORMS FORMING...BUT MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WAS
SOME IFR FOG TO START THE DAY...THAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z.

TONIGHT FOG COULD LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031510
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
LEADING TO SOME IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
STORMS FORMING...BUT MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WAS
SOME IFR FOG TO START THE DAY...THAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z.

TONIGHT FOG COULD LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS TO BE AWARE OF TODAY REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PONDING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL VACATE
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS ACTIVE AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN. 7 DAY AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS...COUPLED WITH THE
PIECEWISE FASHION OF THE RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO
SOAK UP MUCH OF THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. RUNOFF THEREAFTER IS
LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WELL BY RIVERS...AS THEY HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM
TO TAKE ON ADDITIONAL WATER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031418
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1018 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE WET MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MCV ENHANCED
MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH REPORTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST CELLS. CURRENT SHOWER
COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN (ALREADY
EVIDENT) IN MAX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS ON NORTH SIDE OF H7-H8
CLOSED CIRCULATION ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...SHOWERS/STORMS A PRETTY GOOD BET AT ANY POINT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN LOWER. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUB 6C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN WITH
INCREASINGLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS..AND
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED MORNING TEMP RESPONSE...WILL GO AHEAD A CUT HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...SOUPY WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS...

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SPINNING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AND WILL SWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH THE TVC/MBL AREA THROUGH 14Z. THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND IT...BUT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
MEANDER AROUND NRN LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BRING SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS TO PLN. SHOWERS WILL START TO ENTER THE
VCNTY OF APN THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
NO STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...BUT VSBYS AND CIGS WILL TEMPORARILY
BE MVFR WITH THE RAIN. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL
SOME IN THE VCNTY. MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG ARE
LIKELY TONIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031418
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1018 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE WET MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MCV ENHANCED
MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH REPORTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST CELLS. CURRENT SHOWER
COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN (ALREADY
EVIDENT) IN MAX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS ON NORTH SIDE OF H7-H8
CLOSED CIRCULATION ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...SHOWERS/STORMS A PRETTY GOOD BET AT ANY POINT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN LOWER. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUB 6C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN WITH
INCREASINGLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS..AND
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED MORNING TEMP RESPONSE...WILL GO AHEAD A CUT HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...SOUPY WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS...

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SPINNING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AND WILL SWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH THE TVC/MBL AREA THROUGH 14Z. THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND IT...BUT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
MEANDER AROUND NRN LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BRING SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS TO PLN. SHOWERS WILL START TO ENTER THE
VCNTY OF APN THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
NO STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...BUT VSBYS AND CIGS WILL TEMPORARILY
BE MVFR WITH THE RAIN. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL
SOME IN THE VCNTY. MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG ARE
LIKELY TONIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031418
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1018 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE WET MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MCV ENHANCED
MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH REPORTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST CELLS. CURRENT SHOWER
COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN (ALREADY
EVIDENT) IN MAX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS ON NORTH SIDE OF H7-H8
CLOSED CIRCULATION ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...SHOWERS/STORMS A PRETTY GOOD BET AT ANY POINT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN LOWER. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUB 6C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN WITH
INCREASINGLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS..AND
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED MORNING TEMP RESPONSE...WILL GO AHEAD A CUT HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...SOUPY WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS...

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SPINNING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AND WILL SWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH THE TVC/MBL AREA THROUGH 14Z. THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND IT...BUT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
MEANDER AROUND NRN LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BRING SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS TO PLN. SHOWERS WILL START TO ENTER THE
VCNTY OF APN THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
NO STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...BUT VSBYS AND CIGS WILL TEMPORARILY
BE MVFR WITH THE RAIN. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL
SOME IN THE VCNTY. MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG ARE
LIKELY TONIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031332
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
932 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LINE OF SUB SEVERE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM GLADWIN TO MT
PLEASANT TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS NEAR GRAND HAVEN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
DESPITE A DRY WEDGE AT 500MB AND COLD POOL FORMATION...THE LINE IS
ONLY PRODUCING WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH ACCORDING TO SPOTTERS AND
MESONET OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LINE AS IT
MOVES INTO AN AREA THAT SHOULD HAVE MORE SFC INSTABILITY THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
LEADING TO SOME IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
STORMS FORMING...BUT MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WAS
SOME IFR FOG TO START THE DAY...THAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z.

TONIGHT FOG COULD LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031332
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
932 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LINE OF SUB SEVERE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM GLADWIN TO MT
PLEASANT TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS NEAR GRAND HAVEN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
DESPITE A DRY WEDGE AT 500MB AND COLD POOL FORMATION...THE LINE IS
ONLY PRODUCING WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH ACCORDING TO SPOTTERS AND
MESONET OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LINE AS IT
MOVES INTO AN AREA THAT SHOULD HAVE MORE SFC INSTABILITY THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
LEADING TO SOME IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
STORMS FORMING...BUT MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WAS
SOME IFR FOG TO START THE DAY...THAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z.

TONIGHT FOG COULD LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRIME CONCERNS IN LONG TERM INCLUDE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY AND MAX TEMPS. FOG WILL ALSO BE ISSUE
AT TIMES WITH HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
LABOR DAY.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. REMNANT OF
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ATTM MEANDERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND MAY DRIFT TOWARD EAST CWA BY EVENING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TOO
DRY FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH GENERAL EAST SFC WINDS COMING OUT OF HIGH
OVER QUEBEC. SLIGHTLY DRIER TOO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DWPNTS
INSTEAD OF UPR 60S-NEAR 70. COULD BE FOG AROUND TO START DAY BUT
THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HELD DOWN BY OVERALL FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. EXPECT MID 80S INTERIOR WEST AND UPR 70S NEAR 80 OVER REST OF
CWA.

EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE DRAWS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO
BRING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITY BACK TO THE AREA...ADVECTING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SW MEAN LAYER H85-H3 WINDS. EDGE OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ECMWF AND GFS ALSO
BOTH SHOWING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MN AND LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. INCREASING H85 JET
RAMPS UP MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER MN SO HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD THEM INTO FAR WEST
CWA ON SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN VCNTY
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND GIVEN THE HIGHER MUCAPES. MLCAPES ALSO PUSH UP
TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING AFTN SO THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TRY
TO FORM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY AFFECTS FM THE
SHORTWAVE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND TO START DAY AGAIN. SE
WINDS ADDING MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO BEST BET FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. ONCE FOG EVADES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PUSHING 19-20C BY AFTN
AND MORE OF A SOUTH WIND COMPARED TO FRIDAY POINT TO MID-UPR 80S FOR
MOST WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AT SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. MUCAPES REMAIN HIGH AT
1000-2000J/KG FM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. IF
SHORTWAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA PUSH OVER WEST
HALF OF CWA AT LEAST WITH H85-H3 WINDS FM THE WSW. UNLIKE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR SETUP...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER AS
1-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. LOW-LEVEL JET AT H85 OVER 40 KTS
IS AIMED TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AT LEAST WESTERN
FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT SURE IF GREATER MLCAPES WELL TO SW
OF HERE WILL KEEP MAIN SHRA/TSRA THERE SINCE THE SHORTWAVE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH. CARRIED CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CWA...SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
REMOTE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY LATEST DAY3
OUTLOOK FM SPC.

STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES FM ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BOTTOMS OUT AT 990-1000MB OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTINUAL FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA WITHIN H85 JET AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. NEVER
SURE HOW FAR SHRA/TSRA WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT AS WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING FM A YET TO BE DETERMINED SHORTWAVE THERE CAN ALWAYS
BE CAPPING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WEST CWA FOR BETTER
CHANCES AT THIS POINT WITH WSW MEAN LAYER WINDS. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. H85 RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT POINTS TO
READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT AS LONG AS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA DONT DISRUPT
THINGS TOO MUCH. PUT THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY OVER CNTRL CWA
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR
READINGS TO HIT 90 DEGREES WOULD BE BARAGA/BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE/HARVEY/MUNISING.

ALL THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD EASE EAST ACROSS REST OF CWA AS
THE MAIN SFC-H85 FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE AND RIBBON OF
PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MLCAPES OVER
1000J/KG INITIALLY BUT THESE TAIL OFF WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING.
MUCAPES WELL OVER 1000J/KG MAY ALLOW STORMS TO TRY TO BECOME
ELEVATED AFTER BECOMING SFC BASED...BUT THAT IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
TRANSITION. STRONG H85 JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER MUCAPES WILL AID THIS TRANSITION THOUGH. CONSENSUS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS SEEMED FINE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER
POPS ON LABOR DAY END UP BEING OVER EAST HALF WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE EXITING SFC-H85 FRONT. H85 TEMPS DO NOT CRASH
DOWN AS IT LOOKED LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO...SO UPR 70S TO LOW OR
POSSIBLY MID 80S WILL WORK FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY. WARMEST READINGS
CNTRL CWA IRON MTN TO MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. THROUGH THE COOLING IS
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE DRYING IS WITH DWPNTS FALLING OFF INTO THE
50S ON MONDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND DOWN TO AROUND 50 BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE 40S DWPNTS ON TUESDAY AS COOLING
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. EXPECT HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE AND
THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WED. GUSTY WINDS AS THE COOLING OCCURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PRETTY WELL AGREED
UPON BY GFS AND ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT IWD AND CMX FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE CLEARING. CONDITIONS AT SAW HAVE JUST LOWERED TO
IFR...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL ALSO SEE MVFR THEN VFR
SOON AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRIME CONCERNS IN LONG TERM INCLUDE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY AND MAX TEMPS. FOG WILL ALSO BE ISSUE
AT TIMES WITH HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
LABOR DAY.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. REMNANT OF
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ATTM MEANDERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND MAY DRIFT TOWARD EAST CWA BY EVENING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TOO
DRY FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH GENERAL EAST SFC WINDS COMING OUT OF HIGH
OVER QUEBEC. SLIGHTLY DRIER TOO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DWPNTS
INSTEAD OF UPR 60S-NEAR 70. COULD BE FOG AROUND TO START DAY BUT
THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HELD DOWN BY OVERALL FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. EXPECT MID 80S INTERIOR WEST AND UPR 70S NEAR 80 OVER REST OF
CWA.

EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE DRAWS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO
BRING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITY BACK TO THE AREA...ADVECTING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SW MEAN LAYER H85-H3 WINDS. EDGE OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ECMWF AND GFS ALSO
BOTH SHOWING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MN AND LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. INCREASING H85 JET
RAMPS UP MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER MN SO HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD THEM INTO FAR WEST
CWA ON SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN VCNTY
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND GIVEN THE HIGHER MUCAPES. MLCAPES ALSO PUSH UP
TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING AFTN SO THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TRY
TO FORM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY AFFECTS FM THE
SHORTWAVE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND TO START DAY AGAIN. SE
WINDS ADDING MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO BEST BET FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. ONCE FOG EVADES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PUSHING 19-20C BY AFTN
AND MORE OF A SOUTH WIND COMPARED TO FRIDAY POINT TO MID-UPR 80S FOR
MOST WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AT SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. MUCAPES REMAIN HIGH AT
1000-2000J/KG FM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. IF
SHORTWAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA PUSH OVER WEST
HALF OF CWA AT LEAST WITH H85-H3 WINDS FM THE WSW. UNLIKE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR SETUP...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER AS
1-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. LOW-LEVEL JET AT H85 OVER 40 KTS
IS AIMED TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AT LEAST WESTERN
FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT SURE IF GREATER MLCAPES WELL TO SW
OF HERE WILL KEEP MAIN SHRA/TSRA THERE SINCE THE SHORTWAVE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH. CARRIED CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CWA...SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
REMOTE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY LATEST DAY3
OUTLOOK FM SPC.

STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES FM ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BOTTOMS OUT AT 990-1000MB OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTINUAL FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA WITHIN H85 JET AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. NEVER
SURE HOW FAR SHRA/TSRA WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT AS WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING FM A YET TO BE DETERMINED SHORTWAVE THERE CAN ALWAYS
BE CAPPING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WEST CWA FOR BETTER
CHANCES AT THIS POINT WITH WSW MEAN LAYER WINDS. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. H85 RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT POINTS TO
READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT AS LONG AS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA DONT DISRUPT
THINGS TOO MUCH. PUT THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY OVER CNTRL CWA
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR
READINGS TO HIT 90 DEGREES WOULD BE BARAGA/BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE/HARVEY/MUNISING.

ALL THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD EASE EAST ACROSS REST OF CWA AS
THE MAIN SFC-H85 FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE AND RIBBON OF
PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MLCAPES OVER
1000J/KG INITIALLY BUT THESE TAIL OFF WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING.
MUCAPES WELL OVER 1000J/KG MAY ALLOW STORMS TO TRY TO BECOME
ELEVATED AFTER BECOMING SFC BASED...BUT THAT IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
TRANSITION. STRONG H85 JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER MUCAPES WILL AID THIS TRANSITION THOUGH. CONSENSUS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS SEEMED FINE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER
POPS ON LABOR DAY END UP BEING OVER EAST HALF WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE EXITING SFC-H85 FRONT. H85 TEMPS DO NOT CRASH
DOWN AS IT LOOKED LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO...SO UPR 70S TO LOW OR
POSSIBLY MID 80S WILL WORK FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY. WARMEST READINGS
CNTRL CWA IRON MTN TO MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. THROUGH THE COOLING IS
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE DRYING IS WITH DWPNTS FALLING OFF INTO THE
50S ON MONDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND DOWN TO AROUND 50 BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE 40S DWPNTS ON TUESDAY AS COOLING
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. EXPECT HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE AND
THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WED. GUSTY WINDS AS THE COOLING OCCURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PRETTY WELL AGREED
UPON BY GFS AND ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT IWD AND CMX FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE CLEARING. CONDITIONS AT SAW HAVE JUST LOWERED TO
IFR...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL ALSO SEE MVFR THEN VFR
SOON AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRIME CONCERNS IN LONG TERM INCLUDE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY AND MAX TEMPS. FOG WILL ALSO BE ISSUE
AT TIMES WITH HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
LABOR DAY.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. REMNANT OF
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ATTM MEANDERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND MAY DRIFT TOWARD EAST CWA BY EVENING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TOO
DRY FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH GENERAL EAST SFC WINDS COMING OUT OF HIGH
OVER QUEBEC. SLIGHTLY DRIER TOO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DWPNTS
INSTEAD OF UPR 60S-NEAR 70. COULD BE FOG AROUND TO START DAY BUT
THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HELD DOWN BY OVERALL FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. EXPECT MID 80S INTERIOR WEST AND UPR 70S NEAR 80 OVER REST OF
CWA.

EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE DRAWS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO
BRING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITY BACK TO THE AREA...ADVECTING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SW MEAN LAYER H85-H3 WINDS. EDGE OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ECMWF AND GFS ALSO
BOTH SHOWING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MN AND LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. INCREASING H85 JET
RAMPS UP MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER MN SO HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD THEM INTO FAR WEST
CWA ON SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN VCNTY
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND GIVEN THE HIGHER MUCAPES. MLCAPES ALSO PUSH UP
TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING AFTN SO THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TRY
TO FORM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY AFFECTS FM THE
SHORTWAVE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND TO START DAY AGAIN. SE
WINDS ADDING MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO BEST BET FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. ONCE FOG EVADES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PUSHING 19-20C BY AFTN
AND MORE OF A SOUTH WIND COMPARED TO FRIDAY POINT TO MID-UPR 80S FOR
MOST WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AT SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. MUCAPES REMAIN HIGH AT
1000-2000J/KG FM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. IF
SHORTWAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA PUSH OVER WEST
HALF OF CWA AT LEAST WITH H85-H3 WINDS FM THE WSW. UNLIKE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR SETUP...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER AS
1-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. LOW-LEVEL JET AT H85 OVER 40 KTS
IS AIMED TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AT LEAST WESTERN
FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT SURE IF GREATER MLCAPES WELL TO SW
OF HERE WILL KEEP MAIN SHRA/TSRA THERE SINCE THE SHORTWAVE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH. CARRIED CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CWA...SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
REMOTE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY LATEST DAY3
OUTLOOK FM SPC.

STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES FM ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BOTTOMS OUT AT 990-1000MB OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTINUAL FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA WITHIN H85 JET AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. NEVER
SURE HOW FAR SHRA/TSRA WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT AS WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING FM A YET TO BE DETERMINED SHORTWAVE THERE CAN ALWAYS
BE CAPPING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WEST CWA FOR BETTER
CHANCES AT THIS POINT WITH WSW MEAN LAYER WINDS. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. H85 RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT POINTS TO
READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT AS LONG AS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA DONT DISRUPT
THINGS TOO MUCH. PUT THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY OVER CNTRL CWA
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR
READINGS TO HIT 90 DEGREES WOULD BE BARAGA/BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE/HARVEY/MUNISING.

ALL THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD EASE EAST ACROSS REST OF CWA AS
THE MAIN SFC-H85 FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE AND RIBBON OF
PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MLCAPES OVER
1000J/KG INITIALLY BUT THESE TAIL OFF WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING.
MUCAPES WELL OVER 1000J/KG MAY ALLOW STORMS TO TRY TO BECOME
ELEVATED AFTER BECOMING SFC BASED...BUT THAT IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
TRANSITION. STRONG H85 JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER MUCAPES WILL AID THIS TRANSITION THOUGH. CONSENSUS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS SEEMED FINE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER
POPS ON LABOR DAY END UP BEING OVER EAST HALF WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE EXITING SFC-H85 FRONT. H85 TEMPS DO NOT CRASH
DOWN AS IT LOOKED LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO...SO UPR 70S TO LOW OR
POSSIBLY MID 80S WILL WORK FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY. WARMEST READINGS
CNTRL CWA IRON MTN TO MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. THROUGH THE COOLING IS
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE DRYING IS WITH DWPNTS FALLING OFF INTO THE
50S ON MONDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND DOWN TO AROUND 50 BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE 40S DWPNTS ON TUESDAY AS COOLING
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. EXPECT HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE AND
THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WED. GUSTY WINDS AS THE COOLING OCCURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PRETTY WELL AGREED
UPON BY GFS AND ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT IWD AND CMX FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE CLEARING. CONDITIONS AT SAW HAVE JUST LOWERED TO
IFR...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL ALSO SEE MVFR THEN VFR
SOON AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRIME CONCERNS IN LONG TERM INCLUDE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY AND MAX TEMPS. FOG WILL ALSO BE ISSUE
AT TIMES WITH HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
LABOR DAY.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. REMNANT OF
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ATTM MEANDERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND MAY DRIFT TOWARD EAST CWA BY EVENING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TOO
DRY FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH GENERAL EAST SFC WINDS COMING OUT OF HIGH
OVER QUEBEC. SLIGHTLY DRIER TOO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DWPNTS
INSTEAD OF UPR 60S-NEAR 70. COULD BE FOG AROUND TO START DAY BUT
THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HELD DOWN BY OVERALL FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. EXPECT MID 80S INTERIOR WEST AND UPR 70S NEAR 80 OVER REST OF
CWA.

EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE DRAWS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO
BRING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITY BACK TO THE AREA...ADVECTING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SW MEAN LAYER H85-H3 WINDS. EDGE OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ECMWF AND GFS ALSO
BOTH SHOWING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MN AND LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. INCREASING H85 JET
RAMPS UP MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER MN SO HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD THEM INTO FAR WEST
CWA ON SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN VCNTY
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND GIVEN THE HIGHER MUCAPES. MLCAPES ALSO PUSH UP
TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING AFTN SO THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TRY
TO FORM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY AFFECTS FM THE
SHORTWAVE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND TO START DAY AGAIN. SE
WINDS ADDING MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO BEST BET FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. ONCE FOG EVADES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PUSHING 19-20C BY AFTN
AND MORE OF A SOUTH WIND COMPARED TO FRIDAY POINT TO MID-UPR 80S FOR
MOST WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AT SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. MUCAPES REMAIN HIGH AT
1000-2000J/KG FM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. IF
SHORTWAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA PUSH OVER WEST
HALF OF CWA AT LEAST WITH H85-H3 WINDS FM THE WSW. UNLIKE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR SETUP...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER AS
1-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. LOW-LEVEL JET AT H85 OVER 40 KTS
IS AIMED TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AT LEAST WESTERN
FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT SURE IF GREATER MLCAPES WELL TO SW
OF HERE WILL KEEP MAIN SHRA/TSRA THERE SINCE THE SHORTWAVE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH. CARRIED CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CWA...SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
REMOTE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY LATEST DAY3
OUTLOOK FM SPC.

STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES FM ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BOTTOMS OUT AT 990-1000MB OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTINUAL FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA WITHIN H85 JET AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. NEVER
SURE HOW FAR SHRA/TSRA WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT AS WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING FM A YET TO BE DETERMINED SHORTWAVE THERE CAN ALWAYS
BE CAPPING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WEST CWA FOR BETTER
CHANCES AT THIS POINT WITH WSW MEAN LAYER WINDS. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. H85 RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT POINTS TO
READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT AS LONG AS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA DONT DISRUPT
THINGS TOO MUCH. PUT THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY OVER CNTRL CWA
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR
READINGS TO HIT 90 DEGREES WOULD BE BARAGA/BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE/HARVEY/MUNISING.

ALL THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD EASE EAST ACROSS REST OF CWA AS
THE MAIN SFC-H85 FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE AND RIBBON OF
PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MLCAPES OVER
1000J/KG INITIALLY BUT THESE TAIL OFF WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING.
MUCAPES WELL OVER 1000J/KG MAY ALLOW STORMS TO TRY TO BECOME
ELEVATED AFTER BECOMING SFC BASED...BUT THAT IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
TRANSITION. STRONG H85 JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER MUCAPES WILL AID THIS TRANSITION THOUGH. CONSENSUS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS SEEMED FINE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER
POPS ON LABOR DAY END UP BEING OVER EAST HALF WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE EXITING SFC-H85 FRONT. H85 TEMPS DO NOT CRASH
DOWN AS IT LOOKED LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO...SO UPR 70S TO LOW OR
POSSIBLY MID 80S WILL WORK FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY. WARMEST READINGS
CNTRL CWA IRON MTN TO MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. THROUGH THE COOLING IS
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE DRYING IS WITH DWPNTS FALLING OFF INTO THE
50S ON MONDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND DOWN TO AROUND 50 BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE 40S DWPNTS ON TUESDAY AS COOLING
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. EXPECT HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE AND
THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WED. GUSTY WINDS AS THE COOLING OCCURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PRETTY WELL AGREED
UPON BY GFS AND ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT IWD AND CMX FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE CLEARING. CONDITIONS AT SAW HAVE JUST LOWERED TO
IFR...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL ALSO SEE MVFR THEN VFR
SOON AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRIME CONCERNS IN LONG TERM INCLUDE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY AND MAX TEMPS. FOG WILL ALSO BE ISSUE
AT TIMES WITH HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
LABOR DAY.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. REMNANT OF
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ATTM MEANDERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND MAY DRIFT TOWARD EAST CWA BY EVENING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TOO
DRY FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH GENERAL EAST SFC WINDS COMING OUT OF HIGH
OVER QUEBEC. SLIGHTLY DRIER TOO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DWPNTS
INSTEAD OF UPR 60S-NEAR 70. COULD BE FOG AROUND TO START DAY BUT
THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HELD DOWN BY OVERALL FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. EXPECT MID 80S INTERIOR WEST AND UPR 70S NEAR 80 OVER REST OF
CWA.

EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE DRAWS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO
BRING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITY BACK TO THE AREA...ADVECTING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SW MEAN LAYER H85-H3 WINDS. EDGE OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ECMWF AND GFS ALSO
BOTH SHOWING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MN AND LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. INCREASING H85 JET
RAMPS UP MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER MN SO HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD THEM INTO FAR WEST
CWA ON SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN VCNTY
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND GIVEN THE HIGHER MUCAPES. MLCAPES ALSO PUSH UP
TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING AFTN SO THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TRY
TO FORM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY AFFECTS FM THE
SHORTWAVE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND TO START DAY AGAIN. SE
WINDS ADDING MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO BEST BET FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. ONCE FOG EVADES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PUSHING 19-20C BY AFTN
AND MORE OF A SOUTH WIND COMPARED TO FRIDAY POINT TO MID-UPR 80S FOR
MOST WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AT SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. MUCAPES REMAIN HIGH AT
1000-2000J/KG FM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. IF
SHORTWAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA PUSH OVER WEST
HALF OF CWA AT LEAST WITH H85-H3 WINDS FM THE WSW. UNLIKE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR SETUP...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER AS
1-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. LOW-LEVEL JET AT H85 OVER 40 KTS
IS AIMED TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AT LEAST WESTERN
FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT SURE IF GREATER MLCAPES WELL TO SW
OF HERE WILL KEEP MAIN SHRA/TSRA THERE SINCE THE SHORTWAVE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH. CARRIED CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CWA...SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
REMOTE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY LATEST DAY3
OUTLOOK FM SPC.

STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES FM ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BOTTOMS OUT AT 990-1000MB OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTINUAL FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA WITHIN H85 JET AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. NEVER
SURE HOW FAR SHRA/TSRA WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT AS WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING FM A YET TO BE DETERMINED SHORTWAVE THERE CAN ALWAYS
BE CAPPING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WEST CWA FOR BETTER
CHANCES AT THIS POINT WITH WSW MEAN LAYER WINDS. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. H85 RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT POINTS TO
READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT AS LONG AS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA DONT DISRUPT
THINGS TOO MUCH. PUT THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY OVER CNTRL CWA
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR
READINGS TO HIT 90 DEGREES WOULD BE BARAGA/BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE/HARVEY/MUNISING.

ALL THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD EASE EAST ACROSS REST OF CWA AS
THE MAIN SFC-H85 FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE AND RIBBON OF
PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MLCAPES OVER
1000J/KG INITIALLY BUT THESE TAIL OFF WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING.
MUCAPES WELL OVER 1000J/KG MAY ALLOW STORMS TO TRY TO BECOME
ELEVATED AFTER BECOMING SFC BASED...BUT THAT IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
TRANSITION. STRONG H85 JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER MUCAPES WILL AID THIS TRANSITION THOUGH. CONSENSUS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS SEEMED FINE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER
POPS ON LABOR DAY END UP BEING OVER EAST HALF WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE EXITING SFC-H85 FRONT. H85 TEMPS DO NOT CRASH
DOWN AS IT LOOKED LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO...SO UPR 70S TO LOW OR
POSSIBLY MID 80S WILL WORK FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY. WARMEST READINGS
CNTRL CWA IRON MTN TO MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. THROUGH THE COOLING IS
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE DRYING IS WITH DWPNTS FALLING OFF INTO THE
50S ON MONDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND DOWN TO AROUND 50 BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE 40S DWPNTS ON TUESDAY AS COOLING
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. EXPECT HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE AND
THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WED. GUSTY WINDS AS THE COOLING OCCURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PRETTY WELL AGREED
UPON BY GFS AND ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT IWD AND CMX FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE CLEARING. CONDITIONS AT SAW HAVE JUST LOWERED TO
IFR...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL ALSO SEE MVFR THEN VFR
SOON AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRIME CONCERNS IN LONG TERM INCLUDE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY AND MAX TEMPS. FOG WILL ALSO BE ISSUE
AT TIMES WITH HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
LABOR DAY.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. REMNANT OF
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ATTM MEANDERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND MAY DRIFT TOWARD EAST CWA BY EVENING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TOO
DRY FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH GENERAL EAST SFC WINDS COMING OUT OF HIGH
OVER QUEBEC. SLIGHTLY DRIER TOO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DWPNTS
INSTEAD OF UPR 60S-NEAR 70. COULD BE FOG AROUND TO START DAY BUT
THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HELD DOWN BY OVERALL FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. EXPECT MID 80S INTERIOR WEST AND UPR 70S NEAR 80 OVER REST OF
CWA.

EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE DRAWS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO
BRING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITY BACK TO THE AREA...ADVECTING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SW MEAN LAYER H85-H3 WINDS. EDGE OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ECMWF AND GFS ALSO
BOTH SHOWING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MN AND LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. INCREASING H85 JET
RAMPS UP MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER MN SO HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD THEM INTO FAR WEST
CWA ON SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN VCNTY
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND GIVEN THE HIGHER MUCAPES. MLCAPES ALSO PUSH UP
TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING AFTN SO THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TRY
TO FORM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY AFFECTS FM THE
SHORTWAVE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND TO START DAY AGAIN. SE
WINDS ADDING MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO BEST BET FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. ONCE FOG EVADES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PUSHING 19-20C BY AFTN
AND MORE OF A SOUTH WIND COMPARED TO FRIDAY POINT TO MID-UPR 80S FOR
MOST WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AT SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. MUCAPES REMAIN HIGH AT
1000-2000J/KG FM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. IF
SHORTWAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA PUSH OVER WEST
HALF OF CWA AT LEAST WITH H85-H3 WINDS FM THE WSW. UNLIKE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR SETUP...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER AS
1-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. LOW-LEVEL JET AT H85 OVER 40 KTS
IS AIMED TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AT LEAST WESTERN
FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT SURE IF GREATER MLCAPES WELL TO SW
OF HERE WILL KEEP MAIN SHRA/TSRA THERE SINCE THE SHORTWAVE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH. CARRIED CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CWA...SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
REMOTE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY LATEST DAY3
OUTLOOK FM SPC.

STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES FM ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BOTTOMS OUT AT 990-1000MB OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTINUAL FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA WITHIN H85 JET AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. NEVER
SURE HOW FAR SHRA/TSRA WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT AS WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING FM A YET TO BE DETERMINED SHORTWAVE THERE CAN ALWAYS
BE CAPPING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WEST CWA FOR BETTER
CHANCES AT THIS POINT WITH WSW MEAN LAYER WINDS. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. H85 RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT POINTS TO
READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT AS LONG AS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA DONT DISRUPT
THINGS TOO MUCH. PUT THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY OVER CNTRL CWA
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR
READINGS TO HIT 90 DEGREES WOULD BE BARAGA/BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE/HARVEY/MUNISING.

ALL THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD EASE EAST ACROSS REST OF CWA AS
THE MAIN SFC-H85 FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE AND RIBBON OF
PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MLCAPES OVER
1000J/KG INITIALLY BUT THESE TAIL OFF WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING.
MUCAPES WELL OVER 1000J/KG MAY ALLOW STORMS TO TRY TO BECOME
ELEVATED AFTER BECOMING SFC BASED...BUT THAT IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
TRANSITION. STRONG H85 JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER MUCAPES WILL AID THIS TRANSITION THOUGH. CONSENSUS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS SEEMED FINE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER
POPS ON LABOR DAY END UP BEING OVER EAST HALF WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE EXITING SFC-H85 FRONT. H85 TEMPS DO NOT CRASH
DOWN AS IT LOOKED LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO...SO UPR 70S TO LOW OR
POSSIBLY MID 80S WILL WORK FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY. WARMEST READINGS
CNTRL CWA IRON MTN TO MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. THROUGH THE COOLING IS
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE DRYING IS WITH DWPNTS FALLING OFF INTO THE
50S ON MONDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND DOWN TO AROUND 50 BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE 40S DWPNTS ON TUESDAY AS COOLING
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. EXPECT HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE AND
THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WED. GUSTY WINDS AS THE COOLING OCCURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PRETTY WELL AGREED
UPON BY GFS AND ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT IWD AND CMX FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE CLEARING. CONDITIONS AT SAW HAVE JUST LOWERED TO
IFR...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL ALSO SEE MVFR THEN VFR
SOON AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031133
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
733 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
LEADING TO SOME IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
STORMS FORMING...BUT MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WAS
SOME IFR FOG TO START THE DAY...THAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z.

TONIGHT FOG COULD LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031133
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
733 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
LEADING TO SOME IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
STORMS FORMING...BUT MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WAS
SOME IFR FOG TO START THE DAY...THAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z.

TONIGHT FOG COULD LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031133
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
733 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
LEADING TO SOME IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
STORMS FORMING...BUT MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WAS
SOME IFR FOG TO START THE DAY...THAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z.

TONIGHT FOG COULD LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031133
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
733 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
LEADING TO SOME IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
STORMS FORMING...BUT MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WAS
SOME IFR FOG TO START THE DAY...THAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z.

TONIGHT FOG COULD LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031132
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
732 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...

EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AREAWIDE.  WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO POTENTIAL
COVERAGE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION
TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPANDING COVERAGE OF DIURNAL VFR CU CENTERED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD.  THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
PROSPECTS FOR WET GROUND WITH RECENT RAINFALL WILL BRING A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE
OR MORE TERMINALS TO DROP INTO LIFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW YET TO INCLUDE BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH
IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WITHIN THE
18Z-00Z WINDOW...ALTHOUGH A LOWER PROBABILITY WILL EXIST RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031059
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
659 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...SOUPY WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS...

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SPINNING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AND WILL SWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH THE TVC/MBL AREA THROUGH 14Z. THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND IT...BUT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
MEANDER AROUND NRN LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BRING SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS TO PLN. SHOWERS WILL START TO ENTER THE
VCNTY OF APN THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
NO STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...BUT VSBYS AND CIGS WILL TEMPORARILY
BE MVFR WITH THE RAIN. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL
SOME IN THE VCNTY. MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG ARE
LIKELY TONIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031059
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
659 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...SOUPY WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS...

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SPINNING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AND WILL SWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH THE TVC/MBL AREA THROUGH 14Z. THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND IT...BUT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
MEANDER AROUND NRN LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BRING SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS TO PLN. SHOWERS WILL START TO ENTER THE
VCNTY OF APN THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
NO STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...BUT VSBYS AND CIGS WILL TEMPORARILY
BE MVFR WITH THE RAIN. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL
SOME IN THE VCNTY. MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG ARE
LIKELY TONIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031059
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
659 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...SOUPY WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS...

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SPINNING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AND WILL SWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH THE TVC/MBL AREA THROUGH 14Z. THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND IT...BUT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
MEANDER AROUND NRN LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BRING SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS TO PLN. SHOWERS WILL START TO ENTER THE
VCNTY OF APN THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
NO STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...BUT VSBYS AND CIGS WILL TEMPORARILY
BE MVFR WITH THE RAIN. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL
SOME IN THE VCNTY. MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG ARE
LIKELY TONIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
454 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRIME CONCERNS IN LONG TERM INCLUDE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY AND MAX TEMPS. FOG WILL ALSO BE ISSUE
AT TIMES WITH HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
LABOR DAY.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. REMNANT OF
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ATTM MEANDERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND MAY DRIFT TOWARD EAST CWA BY EVENING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TOO
DRY FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH GENERAL EAST SFC WINDS COMING OUT OF HIGH
OVER QUEBEC. SLIGHTLY DRIER TOO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DWPNTS
INSTEAD OF UPR 60S-NEAR 70. COULD BE FOG AROUND TO START DAY BUT
THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HELD DOWN BY OVERALL FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. EXPECT MID 80S INTERIOR WEST AND UPR 70S NEAR 80 OVER REST OF
CWA.

EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE DRAWS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO
BRING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITY BACK TO THE AREA...ADVECTING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SW MEAN LAYER H85-H3 WINDS. EDGE OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ECMWF AND GFS ALSO
BOTH SHOWING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MN AND LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. INCREASING H85 JET
RAMPS UP MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER MN SO HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD THEM INTO FAR WEST
CWA ON SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN VCNTY
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND GIVEN THE HIGHER MUCAPES. MLCAPES ALSO PUSH UP
TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING AFTN SO THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TRY
TO FORM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY AFFECTS FM THE
SHORTWAVE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND TO START DAY AGAIN. SE
WINDS ADDING MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO BEST BET FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. ONCE FOG EVADES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PUSHING 19-20C BY AFTN
AND MORE OF A SOUTH WIND COMPARED TO FRIDAY POINT TO MID-UPR 80S FOR
MOST WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AT SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. MUCAPES REMAIN HIGH AT
1000-2000J/KG FM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. IF
SHORTWAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA PUSH OVER WEST
HALF OF CWA AT LEAST WITH H85-H3 WINDS FM THE WSW. UNLIKE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR SETUP...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER AS
1-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. LOW-LEVEL JET AT H85 OVER 40 KTS
IS AIMED TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AT LEAST WESTERN
FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT SURE IF GREATER MLCAPES WELL TO SW
OF HERE WILL KEEP MAIN SHRA/TSRA THERE SINCE THE SHORTWAVE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH. CARRIED CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CWA...SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
REMOTE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY LATEST DAY3
OUTLOOK FM SPC.

STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES FM ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BOTTOMS OUT AT 990-1000MB OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTINUAL FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA WITHIN H85 JET AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. NEVER
SURE HOW FAR SHRA/TSRA WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT AS WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING FM A YET TO BE DETERMINED SHORTWAVE THERE CAN ALWAYS
BE CAPPING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WEST CWA FOR BETTER
CHANCES AT THIS POINT WITH WSW MEAN LAYER WINDS. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. H85 RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT POINTS TO
READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT AS LONG AS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA DONT DISRUPT
THINGS TOO MUCH. PUT THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY OVER CNTRL CWA
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR
READINGS TO HIT 90 DEGREES WOULD BE BARAGA/BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE/HARVEY/MUNISING.

ALL THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD EASE EAST ACROSS REST OF CWA AS
THE MAIN SFC-H85 FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE AND RIBBON OF
PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MLCAPES OVER
1000J/KG INITIALLY BUT THESE TAIL OFF WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING.
MUCAPES WELL OVER 1000J/KG MAY ALLOW STORMS TO TRY TO BECOME
ELEVATED AFTER BECOMING SFC BASED...BUT THAT IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
TRANSITION. STRONG H85 JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER MUCAPES WILL AID THIS TRANSITION THOUGH. CONSENSUS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS SEEMED FINE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER
POPS ON LABOR DAY END UP BEING OVER EAST HALF WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE EXITING SFC-H85 FRONT. H85 TEMPS DO NOT CRASH
DOWN AS IT LOOKED LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO...SO UPR 70S TO LOW OR
POSSIBLY MID 80S WILL WORK FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY. WARMEST READINGS
CNTRL CWA IRON MTN TO MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. THROUGH THE COOLING IS
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE DRYING IS WITH DWPNTS FALLING OFF INTO THE
50S ON MONDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND DOWN TO AROUND 50 BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE 40S DWPNTS ON TUESDAY AS COOLING
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. EXPECT HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE AND
THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WED. GUSTY WINDS AS THE COOLING OCCURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PRETTY WELL AGREED
UPON BY GFS AND ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLOUDS THINNING OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS
AFTER SUNRISE...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS. MAY HAVE A RETURN OF SOME FOG TONIGHT...PROBABLY JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
454 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRIME CONCERNS IN LONG TERM INCLUDE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY AND MAX TEMPS. FOG WILL ALSO BE ISSUE
AT TIMES WITH HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
LABOR DAY.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. REMNANT OF
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ATTM MEANDERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND MAY DRIFT TOWARD EAST CWA BY EVENING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TOO
DRY FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH GENERAL EAST SFC WINDS COMING OUT OF HIGH
OVER QUEBEC. SLIGHTLY DRIER TOO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DWPNTS
INSTEAD OF UPR 60S-NEAR 70. COULD BE FOG AROUND TO START DAY BUT
THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HELD DOWN BY OVERALL FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. EXPECT MID 80S INTERIOR WEST AND UPR 70S NEAR 80 OVER REST OF
CWA.

EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE DRAWS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO
BRING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITY BACK TO THE AREA...ADVECTING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SW MEAN LAYER H85-H3 WINDS. EDGE OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ECMWF AND GFS ALSO
BOTH SHOWING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MN AND LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. INCREASING H85 JET
RAMPS UP MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER MN SO HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD THEM INTO FAR WEST
CWA ON SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN VCNTY
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND GIVEN THE HIGHER MUCAPES. MLCAPES ALSO PUSH UP
TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING AFTN SO THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TRY
TO FORM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY AFFECTS FM THE
SHORTWAVE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND TO START DAY AGAIN. SE
WINDS ADDING MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO BEST BET FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. ONCE FOG EVADES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PUSHING 19-20C BY AFTN
AND MORE OF A SOUTH WIND COMPARED TO FRIDAY POINT TO MID-UPR 80S FOR
MOST WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AT SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. MUCAPES REMAIN HIGH AT
1000-2000J/KG FM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. IF
SHORTWAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA PUSH OVER WEST
HALF OF CWA AT LEAST WITH H85-H3 WINDS FM THE WSW. UNLIKE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR SETUP...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER AS
1-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. LOW-LEVEL JET AT H85 OVER 40 KTS
IS AIMED TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AT LEAST WESTERN
FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT SURE IF GREATER MLCAPES WELL TO SW
OF HERE WILL KEEP MAIN SHRA/TSRA THERE SINCE THE SHORTWAVE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH. CARRIED CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CWA...SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
REMOTE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY LATEST DAY3
OUTLOOK FM SPC.

STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES FM ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BOTTOMS OUT AT 990-1000MB OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTINUAL FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA WITHIN H85 JET AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. NEVER
SURE HOW FAR SHRA/TSRA WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT AS WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING FM A YET TO BE DETERMINED SHORTWAVE THERE CAN ALWAYS
BE CAPPING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WEST CWA FOR BETTER
CHANCES AT THIS POINT WITH WSW MEAN LAYER WINDS. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. H85 RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT POINTS TO
READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT AS LONG AS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA DONT DISRUPT
THINGS TOO MUCH. PUT THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY OVER CNTRL CWA
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR
READINGS TO HIT 90 DEGREES WOULD BE BARAGA/BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE/HARVEY/MUNISING.

ALL THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD EASE EAST ACROSS REST OF CWA AS
THE MAIN SFC-H85 FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE AND RIBBON OF
PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MLCAPES OVER
1000J/KG INITIALLY BUT THESE TAIL OFF WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING.
MUCAPES WELL OVER 1000J/KG MAY ALLOW STORMS TO TRY TO BECOME
ELEVATED AFTER BECOMING SFC BASED...BUT THAT IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
TRANSITION. STRONG H85 JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER MUCAPES WILL AID THIS TRANSITION THOUGH. CONSENSUS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS SEEMED FINE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER
POPS ON LABOR DAY END UP BEING OVER EAST HALF WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE EXITING SFC-H85 FRONT. H85 TEMPS DO NOT CRASH
DOWN AS IT LOOKED LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO...SO UPR 70S TO LOW OR
POSSIBLY MID 80S WILL WORK FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY. WARMEST READINGS
CNTRL CWA IRON MTN TO MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. THROUGH THE COOLING IS
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE DRYING IS WITH DWPNTS FALLING OFF INTO THE
50S ON MONDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND DOWN TO AROUND 50 BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE 40S DWPNTS ON TUESDAY AS COOLING
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. EXPECT HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE AND
THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WED. GUSTY WINDS AS THE COOLING OCCURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PRETTY WELL AGREED
UPON BY GFS AND ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLOUDS THINNING OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS
AFTER SUNRISE...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS. MAY HAVE A RETURN OF SOME FOG TONIGHT...PROBABLY JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD



000
FXUS63 KMQT 030813
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLOUDS THINNING OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS
AFTER SUNRISE...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS. MAY HAVE A RETURN OF SOME FOG TONIGHT...PROBABLY JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030813
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLOUDS THINNING OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS
AFTER SUNRISE...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS. MAY HAVE A RETURN OF SOME FOG TONIGHT...PROBABLY JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030744
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

WARM/HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR FOG AT THE TERMINAL SITES AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT AND HANG OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE OVERNIGHT AND PERCOLATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP WILL
TEND TO CONTRACT INLAND. THUS...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER OVERNIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING
(APN).

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030744
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

WARM/HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR FOG AT THE TERMINAL SITES AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT AND HANG OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE OVERNIGHT AND PERCOLATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP WILL
TEND TO CONTRACT INLAND. THUS...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER OVERNIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING
(APN).

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KDTX 030733
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT UNTIL LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MVFR
FOG DEVELOPS. THEREAFTER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS
ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 030733
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT UNTIL LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MVFR
FOG DEVELOPS. THEREAFTER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS
ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 030733
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT UNTIL LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MVFR
FOG DEVELOPS. THEREAFTER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS
ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 030733
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT UNTIL LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MVFR
FOG DEVELOPS. THEREAFTER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS
ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 030733
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT UNTIL LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MVFR
FOG DEVELOPS. THEREAFTER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS
ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 030733
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT UNTIL LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MVFR
FOG DEVELOPS. THEREAFTER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS
ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 030733
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT UNTIL LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MVFR
FOG DEVELOPS. THEREAFTER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS
ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 030733
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS CENTERS ON THE INBOUND SLOWLY
MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
CORRIDOR.  LITTLE VARIATION IN THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS/.  AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE INTO
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (2500+ J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE SIZABLE EXPANSION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY...AND WORTHY OF A NUDGE UPWARD IN
POPS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN
GENERATE A PEAK GUST NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS TODAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH THE ENSUING EXPANSION
IN CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNDERCUTTING THE HEATING
POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90.

GRADUAL COOLING VIA DIABATIC PROCESSES AND ANY OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A
DIMINISHING TREND TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...MOIST NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT AUGMENTED BY THE RAINFALL AND WEAK GRADIENT.  A CORRIDOR
OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DEVELOPED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW IS QUESTION...AS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER SOUTH/WEST SOLUTION...NEAR CHICAGO...WHILE
EURO/CANADIAN REMAIN STEADFAST WITH 500 MB LOW FARTHER NORTH/EAST
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM
WARRANTED...EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA (1025 MB)...AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT THERE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM WESTERN PA/LAKE ERIE. MLCAPES PROGGED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DURING FRIDAY...PER 00Z EURO.

STILL LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON SATURDAY WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF STRONG GREAT BASIN 500 MB
LOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD EXERT A BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE
AGAIN...WITH 90 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 18-19 C RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENT
BACKDROP TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID
FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK AS SOLID HEIGHT FALLS/MOISTURE PLUME/AXIS (PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES) AND COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LOW CHANCE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS VERY WARM AIR STREAMS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT UNTIL LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MVFR
FOG DEVELOPS. THEREAFTER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS
ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WEST...STRONG
500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE NAM SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TROUGH
HEADING OUR WAY AND AFFECTING THE AREA ON THU.

NAM KEEPS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING THU AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BEFORE THEN...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. DO HAVE POPS IN FOR LATER THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THEN AND THE SHORTWAVES NEAR. GOING
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POPS AND MOISTURE REMAIN OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLOUDS THINNING OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS
AFTER SUNRISE...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS. MAY HAVE A RETURN OF SOME FOG TONIGHT...PROBABLY JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EXPECT WINDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOG COULD
BECOME A CONCERN MAINLY N FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 030725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WEST...STRONG
500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE NAM SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TROUGH
HEADING OUR WAY AND AFFECTING THE AREA ON THU.

NAM KEEPS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING THU AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BEFORE THEN...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. DO HAVE POPS IN FOR LATER THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THEN AND THE SHORTWAVES NEAR. GOING
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POPS AND MOISTURE REMAIN OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLOUDS THINNING OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS
AFTER SUNRISE...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS. MAY HAVE A RETURN OF SOME FOG TONIGHT...PROBABLY JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EXPECT WINDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOG COULD
BECOME A CONCERN MAINLY N FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WEST...STRONG
500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE NAM SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TROUGH
HEADING OUR WAY AND AFFECTING THE AREA ON THU.

NAM KEEPS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING THU AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BEFORE THEN...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. DO HAVE POPS IN FOR LATER THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THEN AND THE SHORTWAVES NEAR. GOING
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POPS AND MOISTURE REMAIN OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLOUDS THINNING OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS
AFTER SUNRISE...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS. MAY HAVE A RETURN OF SOME FOG TONIGHT...PROBABLY JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EXPECT WINDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOG COULD
BECOME A CONCERN MAINLY N FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WEST...STRONG
500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE NAM SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TROUGH
HEADING OUR WAY AND AFFECTING THE AREA ON THU.

NAM KEEPS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING THU AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BEFORE THEN...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. DO HAVE POPS IN FOR LATER THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THEN AND THE SHORTWAVES NEAR. GOING
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POPS AND MOISTURE REMAIN OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLOUDS THINNING OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS
AFTER SUNRISE...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS. MAY HAVE A RETURN OF SOME FOG TONIGHT...PROBABLY JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EXPECT WINDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOG COULD
BECOME A CONCERN MAINLY N FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KGRR 030724
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION (IFR) MAINLY FOR LAN AND JXN
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. THE MITIGATING
FACTOR TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM WISCONSIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS
12AM-1AM AND MORE LIKELY BY 4AM OR 5AM. I WILL NOT MENTION IFR FOR
THE OTHER TAF SITES...OUTSIDE OF LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO VIS IN
HEAVIER TSRA...WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED IN AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY.
WILL NEED TO CARRY AT LEAST VCTS FOR EVERY LOCATION AS THE HIGH
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY FROM 09Z TO 16Z. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 030724
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION (IFR) MAINLY FOR LAN AND JXN
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. THE MITIGATING
FACTOR TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM WISCONSIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS
12AM-1AM AND MORE LIKELY BY 4AM OR 5AM. I WILL NOT MENTION IFR FOR
THE OTHER TAF SITES...OUTSIDE OF LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO VIS IN
HEAVIER TSRA...WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED IN AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY.
WILL NEED TO CARRY AT LEAST VCTS FOR EVERY LOCATION AS THE HIGH
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY FROM 09Z TO 16Z. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 030724
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION (IFR) MAINLY FOR LAN AND JXN
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. THE MITIGATING
FACTOR TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM WISCONSIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS
12AM-1AM AND MORE LIKELY BY 4AM OR 5AM. I WILL NOT MENTION IFR FOR
THE OTHER TAF SITES...OUTSIDE OF LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO VIS IN
HEAVIER TSRA...WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED IN AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY.
WILL NEED TO CARRY AT LEAST VCTS FOR EVERY LOCATION AS THE HIGH
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY FROM 09Z TO 16Z. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 030724
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION (IFR) MAINLY FOR LAN AND JXN
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. THE MITIGATING
FACTOR TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM WISCONSIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS
12AM-1AM AND MORE LIKELY BY 4AM OR 5AM. I WILL NOT MENTION IFR FOR
THE OTHER TAF SITES...OUTSIDE OF LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO VIS IN
HEAVIER TSRA...WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED IN AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY.
WILL NEED TO CARRY AT LEAST VCTS FOR EVERY LOCATION AS THE HIGH
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY FROM 09Z TO 16Z. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030627
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
227 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

WARM/HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR FOG AT THE TERMINAL SITES AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT AND HANG OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE OVERNIGHT AND PERCOLATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP WILL
TEND TO CONTRACT INLAND. THUS...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER OVERNIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING
(APN).

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030627
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
227 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

WARM/HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR FOG AT THE TERMINAL SITES AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT AND HANG OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE OVERNIGHT AND PERCOLATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP WILL
TEND TO CONTRACT INLAND. THUS...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER OVERNIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING
(APN).

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030627
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
227 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

WARM/HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR FOG AT THE TERMINAL SITES AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT AND HANG OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE OVERNIGHT AND PERCOLATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP WILL
TEND TO CONTRACT INLAND. THUS...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER OVERNIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING
(APN).

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KGRR 030404
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1204 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION THE SHORT WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO OUR CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH TONIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SURFACE
BASED. THE 20 TO 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REACHES OUR NORTHWEST COAST (MASON/OCEANA
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT) THEN SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
WAVE...NOT MAKING A LOT OF PROGRESS INLAND. I AM THINKING WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION MOVE ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA
THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH (DEVELOP SOUTH) THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT WE COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION (IFR) MAINLY FOR LAN AND JXN
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. THE MITIGATING
FACTOR TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM WISCONSIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS
12AM-1AM AND MORE LIKELY BY 4AM OR 5AM. I WILL NOT MENTION IFR FOR
THE OTHER TAF SITES...OUTSIDE OF LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO VIS IN
HEAVIER TSRA...WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED IN AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY.
WILL NEED TO CARRY AT LEAST VCTS FOR EVERY LOCATION AS THE HIGH
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY FROM 09Z TO 16Z. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 030404
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1204 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION THE SHORT WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO OUR CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH TONIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SURFACE
BASED. THE 20 TO 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REACHES OUR NORTHWEST COAST (MASON/OCEANA
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT) THEN SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
WAVE...NOT MAKING A LOT OF PROGRESS INLAND. I AM THINKING WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION MOVE ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA
THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH (DEVELOP SOUTH) THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT WE COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION (IFR) MAINLY FOR LAN AND JXN
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. THE MITIGATING
FACTOR TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM WISCONSIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS
12AM-1AM AND MORE LIKELY BY 4AM OR 5AM. I WILL NOT MENTION IFR FOR
THE OTHER TAF SITES...OUTSIDE OF LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO VIS IN
HEAVIER TSRA...WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED IN AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY.
WILL NEED TO CARRY AT LEAST VCTS FOR EVERY LOCATION AS THE HIGH
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY FROM 09Z TO 16Z. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KDTX 030403
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT UNTIL LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MVFR
FOG DEVELOPS. THEREAFTER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS
ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 030403
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT UNTIL LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MVFR
FOG DEVELOPS. THEREAFTER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS
ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 030403
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT UNTIL LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MVFR
FOG DEVELOPS. THEREAFTER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS
ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030351
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1151 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CERTAINLY A MESOSCALE BONANZA EARLIER TODAY. WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS ABLE TO GENERATE OVER 3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...IMPRESSIVE FOR US. ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO GET
GOING MAINLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER MONTMORENCY AND WESTERN ALPENA COUNTIES AS THUNDERSTORMS
PRETTY MUCH GOT HUNG UP OVER THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH
RADAR LOCALIZED PRECIP ESTIMATES UP AROUND 5 INCHES. THAT ACTIVITY
HAS PRETTY MUCH DIED OFF AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST DOESN/T GET ANY EASIER THROUGH THURSDAY. SLOW MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED DOWN THROUGH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. WISCONSIN HAS ALSO SEEN A FEW
ROUNDS OF STORMS EARLIER TODAY. ONE DECAYING BATCH OF STORMS AND
ATTENDING MCV NOW WORKING UP ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES QUICKLY.
FURTHER WEST...LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS SITS ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED...AND THERE IS YET ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
WITHIN AXIS OF MODEST QG-ASCENT.

REST OF TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS/QG-ASCENT SLOWLY WORKS
IT/S WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD CARRY ONGOING BATCH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WISCONSIN SLOWLY INTO OUR CWA AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS FOR
A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY ON BEFORE BRINGING HIGH POPS BACK INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE
BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

WARM/HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR FOG AT THE TERMINAL SITES AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT AND HANG OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE OVERNIGHT AND PERCOLATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP WILL
TEND TO CONTRACT INLAND. THUS...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER OVERNIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING
(APN).

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030351
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1151 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CERTAINLY A MESOSCALE BONANZA EARLIER TODAY. WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS ABLE TO GENERATE OVER 3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...IMPRESSIVE FOR US. ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO GET
GOING MAINLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER MONTMORENCY AND WESTERN ALPENA COUNTIES AS THUNDERSTORMS
PRETTY MUCH GOT HUNG UP OVER THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH
RADAR LOCALIZED PRECIP ESTIMATES UP AROUND 5 INCHES. THAT ACTIVITY
HAS PRETTY MUCH DIED OFF AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST DOESN/T GET ANY EASIER THROUGH THURSDAY. SLOW MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED DOWN THROUGH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. WISCONSIN HAS ALSO SEEN A FEW
ROUNDS OF STORMS EARLIER TODAY. ONE DECAYING BATCH OF STORMS AND
ATTENDING MCV NOW WORKING UP ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES QUICKLY.
FURTHER WEST...LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS SITS ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED...AND THERE IS YET ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
WITHIN AXIS OF MODEST QG-ASCENT.

REST OF TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS/QG-ASCENT SLOWLY WORKS
IT/S WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD CARRY ONGOING BATCH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WISCONSIN SLOWLY INTO OUR CWA AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS FOR
A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY ON BEFORE BRINGING HIGH POPS BACK INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE
BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

WARM/HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR FOG AT THE TERMINAL SITES AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT AND HANG OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE OVERNIGHT AND PERCOLATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP WILL
TEND TO CONTRACT INLAND. THUS...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER OVERNIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING
(APN).

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030221
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1021 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CERTAINLY A MESOSCALE BONANZA EARLIER TODAY. WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS ABLE TO GENERATE OVER 3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...IMPRESSIVE FOR US. ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO GET
GOING MAINLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER MONTMORENCY AND WESTERN ALPENA COUNTIES AS THUNDERSTORMS
PRETTY MUCH GOT HUNG UP OVER THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH
RADAR LOCALIZED PRECIP ESTIMATES UP AROUND 5 INCHES. THAT ACTIVITY
HAS PRETTY MUCH DIED OFF AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST DOESN/T GET ANY EASIER THROUGH THURSDAY. SLOW MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED DOWN THROUGH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. WISCONSIN HAS ALSO SEEN A FEW
ROUNDS OF STORMS EARLIER TODAY. ONE DECAYING BATCH OF STORMS AND
ATTENDING MCV NOW WORKING UP ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES QUICKLY.
FURTHER WEST...LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS SITS ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED...AND THERE IS YET ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
WITHIN AXIS OF MODEST QG-ASCENT.

REST OF TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS/QG-ASCENT SLOWLY WORKS
IT/S WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD CARRY ONGOING BATCH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WISCONSIN SLOWLY INTO OUR CWA AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS FOR
A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY ON BEFORE BRINGING HIGH POPS BACK INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE
BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH MORNING.



&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
ARE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...NOW PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE
TERMINAL SITES. BUT...SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT THAT WAY. LATEST BATCH NOW HEADING UP THROUGH
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MAY CLIP THE PLN TERMINAL SITE LATER THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER BACK TO THE
WEST AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE RIGHT
NOW. BUT GIVEN THE VERY SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS MAY CONTINUE BE THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING AND RENEWED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOG DISSIPATED THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TEETER ON VFR AND MVFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030221
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1021 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CERTAINLY A MESOSCALE BONANZA EARLIER TODAY. WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS ABLE TO GENERATE OVER 3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...IMPRESSIVE FOR US. ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO GET
GOING MAINLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER MONTMORENCY AND WESTERN ALPENA COUNTIES AS THUNDERSTORMS
PRETTY MUCH GOT HUNG UP OVER THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH
RADAR LOCALIZED PRECIP ESTIMATES UP AROUND 5 INCHES. THAT ACTIVITY
HAS PRETTY MUCH DIED OFF AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST DOESN/T GET ANY EASIER THROUGH THURSDAY. SLOW MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED DOWN THROUGH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. WISCONSIN HAS ALSO SEEN A FEW
ROUNDS OF STORMS EARLIER TODAY. ONE DECAYING BATCH OF STORMS AND
ATTENDING MCV NOW WORKING UP ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES QUICKLY.
FURTHER WEST...LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS SITS ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED...AND THERE IS YET ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
WITHIN AXIS OF MODEST QG-ASCENT.

REST OF TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS/QG-ASCENT SLOWLY WORKS
IT/S WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD CARRY ONGOING BATCH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WISCONSIN SLOWLY INTO OUR CWA AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS FOR
A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY ON BEFORE BRINGING HIGH POPS BACK INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE
BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH MORNING.



&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
ARE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...NOW PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE
TERMINAL SITES. BUT...SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT THAT WAY. LATEST BATCH NOW HEADING UP THROUGH
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MAY CLIP THE PLN TERMINAL SITE LATER THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER BACK TO THE
WEST AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE RIGHT
NOW. BUT GIVEN THE VERY SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS MAY CONTINUE BE THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING AND RENEWED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOG DISSIPATED THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TEETER ON VFR AND MVFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030221
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1021 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CERTAINLY A MESOSCALE BONANZA EARLIER TODAY. WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS ABLE TO GENERATE OVER 3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...IMPRESSIVE FOR US. ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO GET
GOING MAINLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER MONTMORENCY AND WESTERN ALPENA COUNTIES AS THUNDERSTORMS
PRETTY MUCH GOT HUNG UP OVER THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH
RADAR LOCALIZED PRECIP ESTIMATES UP AROUND 5 INCHES. THAT ACTIVITY
HAS PRETTY MUCH DIED OFF AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST DOESN/T GET ANY EASIER THROUGH THURSDAY. SLOW MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED DOWN THROUGH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. WISCONSIN HAS ALSO SEEN A FEW
ROUNDS OF STORMS EARLIER TODAY. ONE DECAYING BATCH OF STORMS AND
ATTENDING MCV NOW WORKING UP ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES QUICKLY.
FURTHER WEST...LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS SITS ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED...AND THERE IS YET ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
WITHIN AXIS OF MODEST QG-ASCENT.

REST OF TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS/QG-ASCENT SLOWLY WORKS
IT/S WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD CARRY ONGOING BATCH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WISCONSIN SLOWLY INTO OUR CWA AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS FOR
A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY ON BEFORE BRINGING HIGH POPS BACK INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE
BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH MORNING.



&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
ARE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...NOW PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE
TERMINAL SITES. BUT...SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT THAT WAY. LATEST BATCH NOW HEADING UP THROUGH
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MAY CLIP THE PLN TERMINAL SITE LATER THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER BACK TO THE
WEST AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE RIGHT
NOW. BUT GIVEN THE VERY SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS MAY CONTINUE BE THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING AND RENEWED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOG DISSIPATED THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TEETER ON VFR AND MVFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030221
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1021 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CERTAINLY A MESOSCALE BONANZA EARLIER TODAY. WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS ABLE TO GENERATE OVER 3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...IMPRESSIVE FOR US. ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO GET
GOING MAINLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER MONTMORENCY AND WESTERN ALPENA COUNTIES AS THUNDERSTORMS
PRETTY MUCH GOT HUNG UP OVER THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH
RADAR LOCALIZED PRECIP ESTIMATES UP AROUND 5 INCHES. THAT ACTIVITY
HAS PRETTY MUCH DIED OFF AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST DOESN/T GET ANY EASIER THROUGH THURSDAY. SLOW MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED DOWN THROUGH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. WISCONSIN HAS ALSO SEEN A FEW
ROUNDS OF STORMS EARLIER TODAY. ONE DECAYING BATCH OF STORMS AND
ATTENDING MCV NOW WORKING UP ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES QUICKLY.
FURTHER WEST...LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS SITS ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED...AND THERE IS YET ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
WITHIN AXIS OF MODEST QG-ASCENT.

REST OF TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS/QG-ASCENT SLOWLY WORKS
IT/S WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD CARRY ONGOING BATCH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WISCONSIN SLOWLY INTO OUR CWA AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS FOR
A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY ON BEFORE BRINGING HIGH POPS BACK INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE
BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH MORNING.



&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
ARE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...NOW PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE
TERMINAL SITES. BUT...SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT THAT WAY. LATEST BATCH NOW HEADING UP THROUGH
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MAY CLIP THE PLN TERMINAL SITE LATER THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER BACK TO THE
WEST AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE RIGHT
NOW. BUT GIVEN THE VERY SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS MAY CONTINUE BE THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING AND RENEWED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOG DISSIPATED THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TEETER ON VFR AND MVFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KGRR 030037
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
837 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION THE SHORT WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO OUR CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH TONIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SURFACE
BASED. THE 20 TO 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REACHES OUR NORTHWEST COAST (MASON/OCEANA
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT) THEN SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
WAVE...NOT MAKING A LOT OF PROGRESS INLAND. I AM THINKING WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION MOVE ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA
THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH (DEVELOP SOUTH) THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT WE COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

IT SHOULD BE QUIET AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN TAFS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z (OR
SO). AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND LIKELY SET OF A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SHOWN BY NSSL WAF...HRRR CR... RAP13...
NAM12) MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME
FRAME. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE STORMS WEAKENING EAST OF US-131
IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. LAST NIGHT THE STORMS DID NOT WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVED TOWARD LAN DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT KEPT
THEM TOGETHER. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN COMES INTO THE
PICTURE. THIS TIME IT IS AROUND THE SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN AND IT
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS IS TYPICAL(SHOWN BY NAM AND RAP MODEL).
THE JET CORE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF THE CONVECTION NOT
GETTING INLAND TO FAR. SO... THAT IS HOW I PLAYED THE TAFS. I
HAVE...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER... HAVE SHOWERS WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS AT MKG...GRR...AZO...BTL. AS FOR THURSDAY... MORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 030037
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
837 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION THE SHORT WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO OUR CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH TONIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SURFACE
BASED. THE 20 TO 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REACHES OUR NORTHWEST COAST (MASON/OCEANA
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT) THEN SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
WAVE...NOT MAKING A LOT OF PROGRESS INLAND. I AM THINKING WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION MOVE ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA
THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH (DEVELOP SOUTH) THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT WE COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

IT SHOULD BE QUIET AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN TAFS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z (OR
SO). AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND LIKELY SET OF A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SHOWN BY NSSL WAF...HRRR CR... RAP13...
NAM12) MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME
FRAME. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE STORMS WEAKENING EAST OF US-131
IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. LAST NIGHT THE STORMS DID NOT WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVED TOWARD LAN DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT KEPT
THEM TOGETHER. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN COMES INTO THE
PICTURE. THIS TIME IT IS AROUND THE SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN AND IT
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS IS TYPICAL(SHOWN BY NAM AND RAP MODEL).
THE JET CORE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF THE CONVECTION NOT
GETTING INLAND TO FAR. SO... THAT IS HOW I PLAYED THE TAFS. I
HAVE...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER... HAVE SHOWERS WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS AT MKG...GRR...AZO...BTL. AS FOR THURSDAY... MORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 030037
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
837 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION THE SHORT WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO OUR CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH TONIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SURFACE
BASED. THE 20 TO 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REACHES OUR NORTHWEST COAST (MASON/OCEANA
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT) THEN SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
WAVE...NOT MAKING A LOT OF PROGRESS INLAND. I AM THINKING WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION MOVE ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA
THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH (DEVELOP SOUTH) THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT WE COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

IT SHOULD BE QUIET AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN TAFS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z (OR
SO). AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND LIKELY SET OF A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SHOWN BY NSSL WAF...HRRR CR... RAP13...
NAM12) MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME
FRAME. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE STORMS WEAKENING EAST OF US-131
IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. LAST NIGHT THE STORMS DID NOT WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVED TOWARD LAN DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT KEPT
THEM TOGETHER. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN COMES INTO THE
PICTURE. THIS TIME IT IS AROUND THE SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN AND IT
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS IS TYPICAL(SHOWN BY NAM AND RAP MODEL).
THE JET CORE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF THE CONVECTION NOT
GETTING INLAND TO FAR. SO... THAT IS HOW I PLAYED THE TAFS. I
HAVE...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER... HAVE SHOWERS WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS AT MKG...GRR...AZO...BTL. AS FOR THURSDAY... MORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 030037
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
837 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION THE SHORT WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO OUR CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH TONIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SURFACE
BASED. THE 20 TO 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REACHES OUR NORTHWEST COAST (MASON/OCEANA
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT) THEN SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
WAVE...NOT MAKING A LOT OF PROGRESS INLAND. I AM THINKING WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION MOVE ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA
THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH (DEVELOP SOUTH) THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT WE COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

IT SHOULD BE QUIET AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN TAFS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z (OR
SO). AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND LIKELY SET OF A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SHOWN BY NSSL WAF...HRRR CR... RAP13...
NAM12) MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME
FRAME. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE STORMS WEAKENING EAST OF US-131
IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. LAST NIGHT THE STORMS DID NOT WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVED TOWARD LAN DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT KEPT
THEM TOGETHER. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN COMES INTO THE
PICTURE. THIS TIME IT IS AROUND THE SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN AND IT
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS IS TYPICAL(SHOWN BY NAM AND RAP MODEL).
THE JET CORE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF THE CONVECTION NOT
GETTING INLAND TO FAR. SO... THAT IS HOW I PLAYED THE TAFS. I
HAVE...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER... HAVE SHOWERS WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS AT MKG...GRR...AZO...BTL. AS FOR THURSDAY... MORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 030037
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
837 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION THE SHORT WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO OUR CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH TONIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SURFACE
BASED. THE 20 TO 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REACHES OUR NORTHWEST COAST (MASON/OCEANA
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT) THEN SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
WAVE...NOT MAKING A LOT OF PROGRESS INLAND. I AM THINKING WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION MOVE ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA
THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH (DEVELOP SOUTH) THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT WE COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

IT SHOULD BE QUIET AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN TAFS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z (OR
SO). AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND LIKELY SET OF A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SHOWN BY NSSL WAF...HRRR CR... RAP13...
NAM12) MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME
FRAME. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE STORMS WEAKENING EAST OF US-131
IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. LAST NIGHT THE STORMS DID NOT WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVED TOWARD LAN DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT KEPT
THEM TOGETHER. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN COMES INTO THE
PICTURE. THIS TIME IT IS AROUND THE SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN AND IT
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS IS TYPICAL(SHOWN BY NAM AND RAP MODEL).
THE JET CORE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF THE CONVECTION NOT
GETTING INLAND TO FAR. SO... THAT IS HOW I PLAYED THE TAFS. I
HAVE...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER... HAVE SHOWERS WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS AT MKG...GRR...AZO...BTL. AS FOR THURSDAY... MORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 030037
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
837 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION THE SHORT WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO OUR CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH TONIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SURFACE
BASED. THE 20 TO 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REACHES OUR NORTHWEST COAST (MASON/OCEANA
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT) THEN SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
WAVE...NOT MAKING A LOT OF PROGRESS INLAND. I AM THINKING WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION MOVE ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA
THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH (DEVELOP SOUTH) THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT WE COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

IT SHOULD BE QUIET AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN TAFS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z (OR
SO). AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND LIKELY SET OF A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SHOWN BY NSSL WAF...HRRR CR... RAP13...
NAM12) MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME
FRAME. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE STORMS WEAKENING EAST OF US-131
IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. LAST NIGHT THE STORMS DID NOT WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVED TOWARD LAN DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT KEPT
THEM TOGETHER. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN COMES INTO THE
PICTURE. THIS TIME IT IS AROUND THE SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN AND IT
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS IS TYPICAL(SHOWN BY NAM AND RAP MODEL).
THE JET CORE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF THE CONVECTION NOT
GETTING INLAND TO FAR. SO... THAT IS HOW I PLAYED THE TAFS. I
HAVE...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER... HAVE SHOWERS WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS AT MKG...GRR...AZO...BTL. AS FOR THURSDAY... MORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030029
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
ARE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...NOW PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE
TERMINAL SITES. BUT...SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT THAT WAY. LATEST BATCH NOW HEADING UP THROUGH
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MAY CLIP THE PLN TERMINAL SITE LATER THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER BACK TO THE
WEST AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE RIGHT
NOW. BUT GIVEN THE VERY SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS MAY CONTINUE BE THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING AND RENEWED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOG DISSIPATED THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TEETER ON VFR AND MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030029
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
ARE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...NOW PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE
TERMINAL SITES. BUT...SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT THAT WAY. LATEST BATCH NOW HEADING UP THROUGH
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MAY CLIP THE PLN TERMINAL SITE LATER THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER BACK TO THE
WEST AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE RIGHT
NOW. BUT GIVEN THE VERY SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS MAY CONTINUE BE THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING AND RENEWED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOG DISSIPATED THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TEETER ON VFR AND MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030029
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
ARE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...NOW PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE
TERMINAL SITES. BUT...SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT THAT WAY. LATEST BATCH NOW HEADING UP THROUGH
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MAY CLIP THE PLN TERMINAL SITE LATER THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER BACK TO THE
WEST AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE RIGHT
NOW. BUT GIVEN THE VERY SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS MAY CONTINUE BE THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING AND RENEWED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOG DISSIPATED THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TEETER ON VFR AND MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030029
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
ARE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...NOW PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE
TERMINAL SITES. BUT...SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT THAT WAY. LATEST BATCH NOW HEADING UP THROUGH
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MAY CLIP THE PLN TERMINAL SITE LATER THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER BACK TO THE
WEST AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE RIGHT
NOW. BUT GIVEN THE VERY SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS MAY CONTINUE BE THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING AND RENEWED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOG DISSIPATED THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TEETER ON VFR AND MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030029
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
ARE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...NOW PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE
TERMINAL SITES. BUT...SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT THAT WAY. LATEST BATCH NOW HEADING UP THROUGH
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MAY CLIP THE PLN TERMINAL SITE LATER THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER BACK TO THE
WEST AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE RIGHT
NOW. BUT GIVEN THE VERY SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS MAY CONTINUE BE THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING AND RENEWED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOG DISSIPATED THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TEETER ON VFR AND MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 022357
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

IT SHOULD BE QUIET AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN TAFS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z (OR
SO). AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND LIKELY SET OF A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SHOWN BY NSSL WAF...HRRR CR... RAP13...
NAM12) MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME
FRAME. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE STORMS WEAKENING EAST OF US-131
IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. LAST NIGHT THE STORMS DID NOT WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVED TOWARD LAN DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT KEPT
THEM TOGETHER. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN COMES INTO THE
PICTURE. THIS TIME IT IS AROUND THE SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN AND IT
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS IS TYPICAL(SHOWN BY NAM AND RAP MODEL).
THE JET CORE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF THE CONVECTION NOT
GETTING INLAND TO FAR. SO... THAT IS HOW I PLAYED THE TAFS. I
HAVE...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER... HAVE SHOWERS WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS AT MKG...GRR...AZO...BTL. AS FOR THURSDAY... MORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KMQT 022349
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
749 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WEST...STRONG
500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE NAM SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TROUGH
HEADING OUR WAY AND AFFECTING THE AREA ON THU.

NAM KEEPS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING THU AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BEFORE THEN...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. DO HAVE POPS IN FOR LATER THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THEN AND THE SHORTWAVES NEAR. GOING
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POPS AND MOISTURE REMAIN OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE INITIALLY THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ALTHOUGH -SHRA WILL AFFECT KSAW FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW HRS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. OVERNIGHT...FOG (LIFR CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED TO FORM
DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RAIN TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS THINNING
OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE ON
THU...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EXPECT WINDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOG COULD
BECOME A CONCERN MAINLY N FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 022349
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
749 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WEST...STRONG
500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE NAM SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TROUGH
HEADING OUR WAY AND AFFECTING THE AREA ON THU.

NAM KEEPS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING THU AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BEFORE THEN...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. DO HAVE POPS IN FOR LATER THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THEN AND THE SHORTWAVES NEAR. GOING
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POPS AND MOISTURE REMAIN OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE INITIALLY THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ALTHOUGH -SHRA WILL AFFECT KSAW FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW HRS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. OVERNIGHT...FOG (LIFR CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED TO FORM
DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RAIN TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS THINNING
OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE ON
THU...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EXPECT WINDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOG COULD
BECOME A CONCERN MAINLY N FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 022349
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
749 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WEST...STRONG
500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE NAM SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TROUGH
HEADING OUR WAY AND AFFECTING THE AREA ON THU.

NAM KEEPS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING THU AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BEFORE THEN...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. DO HAVE POPS IN FOR LATER THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THEN AND THE SHORTWAVES NEAR. GOING
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POPS AND MOISTURE REMAIN OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE INITIALLY THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ALTHOUGH -SHRA WILL AFFECT KSAW FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW HRS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. OVERNIGHT...FOG (LIFR CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED TO FORM
DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RAIN TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS THINNING
OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE ON
THU...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EXPECT WINDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOG COULD
BECOME A CONCERN MAINLY N FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 022349
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
749 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WEST...STRONG
500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE NAM SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TROUGH
HEADING OUR WAY AND AFFECTING THE AREA ON THU.

NAM KEEPS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING THU AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BEFORE THEN...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. DO HAVE POPS IN FOR LATER THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THEN AND THE SHORTWAVES NEAR. GOING
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POPS AND MOISTURE REMAIN OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE INITIALLY THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ALTHOUGH -SHRA WILL AFFECT KSAW FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW HRS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. OVERNIGHT...FOG (LIFR CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED TO FORM
DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RAIN TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS THINNING
OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE ON
THU...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EXPECT WINDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOG COULD
BECOME A CONCERN MAINLY N FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KDTX 022314
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
714 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

SHRAS/TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE FORECAST BEGINS. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NNW WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FROM GUST
FRONT...KDET/KDTW/KYIP ALL SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY TRANQUIL EVENING FOR
THE MOST PART. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR BR EARLY THURSDAY AM
WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING 3-5 SM. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 022314
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
714 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

SHRAS/TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE FORECAST BEGINS. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NNW WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FROM GUST
FRONT...KDET/KDTW/KYIP ALL SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY TRANQUIL EVENING FOR
THE MOST PART. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR BR EARLY THURSDAY AM
WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING 3-5 SM. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 022314
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
714 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

SHRAS/TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE FORECAST BEGINS. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NNW WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FROM GUST
FRONT...KDET/KDTW/KYIP ALL SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY TRANQUIL EVENING FOR
THE MOST PART. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR BR EARLY THURSDAY AM
WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING 3-5 SM. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 022314
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
714 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

SHRAS/TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE FORECAST BEGINS. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NNW WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FROM GUST
FRONT...KDET/KDTW/KYIP ALL SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY TRANQUIL EVENING FOR
THE MOST PART. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR BR EARLY THURSDAY AM
WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING 3-5 SM. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 022314
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
714 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

SHRAS/TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE FORECAST BEGINS. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NNW WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FROM GUST
FRONT...KDET/KDTW/KYIP ALL SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY TRANQUIL EVENING FOR
THE MOST PART. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR BR EARLY THURSDAY AM
WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING 3-5 SM. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 022314
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
714 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

SHRAS/TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE FORECAST BEGINS. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NNW WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FROM GUST
FRONT...KDET/KDTW/KYIP ALL SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY TRANQUIL EVENING FOR
THE MOST PART. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR BR EARLY THURSDAY AM
WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING 3-5 SM. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KMQT 022004
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
404 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WEST...STRONG
500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE NAM SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TROUGH
HEADING OUR WAY AND AFFECTING THE AREA ON THU.

NAM KEEPS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING THU AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BEFORE THEN...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. DO HAVE POPS IN FOR LATER THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THEN AND THE SHORTWAVES NEAR. GOING
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POPS AND MOISTURE REMAIN OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

RAIN W DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT TS RETURN
TO SAW. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY S OF THE AIRPORT. WITH
PLENTY OF RAIN AT ALL 3 SITES...FOG IS A CONCERN. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS/VIS TO RETURN BY MID-LATE MORNING THURSDAY AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EXPECT WINDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOG COULD
BECOME A CONCERN MAINLY N FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 022004
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
404 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WEST...STRONG
500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE NAM SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TROUGH
HEADING OUR WAY AND AFFECTING THE AREA ON THU.

NAM KEEPS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING THU AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BEFORE THEN...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. DO HAVE POPS IN FOR LATER THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THEN AND THE SHORTWAVES NEAR. GOING
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POPS AND MOISTURE REMAIN OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

RAIN W DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT TS RETURN
TO SAW. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY S OF THE AIRPORT. WITH
PLENTY OF RAIN AT ALL 3 SITES...FOG IS A CONCERN. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS/VIS TO RETURN BY MID-LATE MORNING THURSDAY AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EXPECT WINDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOG COULD
BECOME A CONCERN MAINLY N FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KAPX 021948
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STILL WATCHING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY TVC AND APN. THESE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...AND SPECIFIC
IMPACTS/IF ANY/ WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
PROPAGATION ARE REALIZED. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS
INITIAL CONVECTION WANES...WAITING ON WHAT IMPACTS UPSTREAM WAVE
HAS ON RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL BELIEVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DRIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THIS
FEATURE...IMPACTING TVC AND MBL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE BR/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL AIRMASS...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN
THE LAST FEW NIGHT.

WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL GREATLY DICTATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL TREND A TOUCH OPTIMISTIC...LETTING THINGS
EVOLVE TONIGHT BEFORE HITTING WITH MUCH DETAIL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 021948
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STILL WATCHING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY TVC AND APN. THESE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...AND SPECIFIC
IMPACTS/IF ANY/ WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
PROPAGATION ARE REALIZED. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS
INITIAL CONVECTION WANES...WAITING ON WHAT IMPACTS UPSTREAM WAVE
HAS ON RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL BELIEVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DRIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THIS
FEATURE...IMPACTING TVC AND MBL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE BR/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL AIRMASS...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN
THE LAST FEW NIGHT.

WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL GREATLY DICTATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL TREND A TOUCH OPTIMISTIC...LETTING THINGS
EVOLVE TONIGHT BEFORE HITTING WITH MUCH DETAIL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021948
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STILL WATCHING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY TVC AND APN. THESE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...AND SPECIFIC
IMPACTS/IF ANY/ WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
PROPAGATION ARE REALIZED. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS
INITIAL CONVECTION WANES...WAITING ON WHAT IMPACTS UPSTREAM WAVE
HAS ON RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL BELIEVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DRIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THIS
FEATURE...IMPACTING TVC AND MBL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE BR/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL AIRMASS...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN
THE LAST FEW NIGHT.

WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL GREATLY DICTATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL TREND A TOUCH OPTIMISTIC...LETTING THINGS
EVOLVE TONIGHT BEFORE HITTING WITH MUCH DETAIL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 021948
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS?

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUITE THE INTERESTING
PATTERN OUT THERE TODAY FOR SURE. TO BEGIN WITH...JUST
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE SPIKING TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. TO COMPLETE THE SUMMER FEEL...ABOVE COMBO OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ESSENTIALLY...ABOUT YOUR
TYPICAL LATER SUMMER DAY...IN FLORIDA! SUCH AN AIRMASS TIED TO
NORTHERN EXTENT OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...ITSELF PART OF A RATHER
AMPLIFIED EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS
CONVECTIVELY AGITATED VORT LOBE/MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACCOMPANYING IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION.

DETAILS: FIRST THINGS FIRST...AND EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RUN ITS COURSE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL SUPPORT IS LOST. WEAK WIND FIELDS/LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CENTERS ON THE AFFECTS FROM THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING WISCONSIN WAVE.
DIFFERENCES ARE MANY ON HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WAVE...WITH NAM-
WRF/GFS MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING IT AND DRIVING BEST RAIN
CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS REMAIN
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HELPING DRIVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO AT LEAST MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MORE MATURE
WAVE THAN THE FORMER PROGS WOULD IMPLY...AT LEAST ADDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER PROGS. WILL CAUTIOUSLY
TREND POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL LIMITING THEM TO
CHANCE WORDING. NO DOUBT THIS WILL REMAIN A NEAR TERM ISSUE THIS
EVENING...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

IF STORMS DO INDEED FIRE OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION.
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...DOES REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LVLS...BROAD 500MB RIDGE WHICH BUILT OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL SHARPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK RIPPLE
DEVELOPING IN THE 500MB FLOW OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS NEAR 65F WITH 850MB DEW PTS NEAR
17C) IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NRN MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MU CAPE ~2500 J/KG, LI ~
-4C WITH 850/500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM). CORRESPONDING MID LVL
QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRI.

THE EXTEND PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FCST PD...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 16C THURSDAY TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
NRN MI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE THAT WAS SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO USHER OUT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...WILL HELP TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH TIMING RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS COULD AFFECT SOME LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. A SECOND
SYSTEM...MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AND HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STILL WATCHING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY TVC AND APN. THESE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...AND SPECIFIC
IMPACTS/IF ANY/ WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
PROPAGATION ARE REALIZED. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS
INITIAL CONVECTION WANES...WAITING ON WHAT IMPACTS UPSTREAM WAVE
HAS ON RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL BELIEVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DRIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THIS
FEATURE...IMPACTING TVC AND MBL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE BR/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL AIRMASS...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN
THE LAST FEW NIGHT.

WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL GREATLY DICTATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL TREND A TOUCH OPTIMISTIC...LETTING THINGS
EVOLVE TONIGHT BEFORE HITTING WITH MUCH DETAIL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS IN STABLE OVER-WATER
ENVIRONMENT SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 021929 RRA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN SW AND SC LWR MI.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WITH
BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW LWR MI IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING 06Z-09Z AT MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL WHERE
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST... BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LAN AND JXN UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY (STILL SOME FOG AT THESE SITES THOUGH).

WILL FCST PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS... BUT IF STORMS PERSIST AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS... CONDITIONS COULD SETTLE INTO IFR FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT SOME OF THE TAF SITE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021929 RRA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN SW AND SC LWR MI.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WITH
BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW LWR MI IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING 06Z-09Z AT MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL WHERE
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST... BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LAN AND JXN UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY (STILL SOME FOG AT THESE SITES THOUGH).

WILL FCST PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS... BUT IF STORMS PERSIST AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS... CONDITIONS COULD SETTLE INTO IFR FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT SOME OF THE TAF SITE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021929 RRA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN SW AND SC LWR MI.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WITH
BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW LWR MI IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING 06Z-09Z AT MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL WHERE
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST... BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LAN AND JXN UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY (STILL SOME FOG AT THESE SITES THOUGH).

WILL FCST PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS... BUT IF STORMS PERSIST AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS... CONDITIONS COULD SETTLE INTO IFR FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT SOME OF THE TAF SITE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 021929 RRA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS GENERATING CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS MIGRATED TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE IT IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE. THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE`RE SITTING ON 4000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN IN A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 40KTS NOTED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON/T BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN TODAY TOO. THAT SAID...MORE FORCING IN THE WAY OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN COVERAGE. WE/VE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE TO SEE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ISN/T THAT STRONG SO CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK WITH THE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR BELIEVE
THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT ON LABOR DAY IS VERY LOW.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEHIND IT HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
AS IT HANGS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

PERHAPS A BETTER RISK OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP AND MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH... WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A WAVE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN SW AND SC LWR MI.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WITH
BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW LWR MI IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING 06Z-09Z AT MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL WHERE
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST... BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LAN AND JXN UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY (STILL SOME FOG AT THESE SITES THOUGH).

WILL FCST PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS... BUT IF STORMS PERSIST AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS... CONDITIONS COULD SETTLE INTO IFR FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT SOME OF THE TAF SITE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 127 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DAYTIME HEATING IS LEADING TO AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z...OVER PORTIONS OF MID
MICHIGAN AND THE SAGINAW BAY REGION. QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE
PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST ATTM. UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH HIGHER FOR FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CLOUD DISSIPATION
THIS EVENING WITH MUGGY WEATHER LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

AT DTW...A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXISTS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-02Z. VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 127 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DAYTIME HEATING IS LEADING TO AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z...OVER PORTIONS OF MID
MICHIGAN AND THE SAGINAW BAY REGION. QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE
PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST ATTM. UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH HIGHER FOR FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CLOUD DISSIPATION
THIS EVENING WITH MUGGY WEATHER LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

AT DTW...A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXISTS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-02Z. VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 127 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DAYTIME HEATING IS LEADING TO AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z...OVER PORTIONS OF MID
MICHIGAN AND THE SAGINAW BAY REGION. QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE
PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST ATTM. UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH HIGHER FOR FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CLOUD DISSIPATION
THIS EVENING WITH MUGGY WEATHER LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

AT DTW...A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXISTS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-02Z. VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 127 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DAYTIME HEATING IS LEADING TO AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z...OVER PORTIONS OF MID
MICHIGAN AND THE SAGINAW BAY REGION. QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE
PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST ATTM. UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH HIGHER FOR FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CLOUD DISSIPATION
THIS EVENING WITH MUGGY WEATHER LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

AT DTW...A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXISTS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-02Z. VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

TWO FOCUSES FOR THE SHORT TERM TODAY...THE FOG TO START THE DAY AND
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS...WITH 4AM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND DEWPOINTS NEARLY IDENTICAL. THIS
HAS LED TO FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/4MI TO 4MI. LOOKING AT
WEBCAMS...THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG SEEM TO BE VERY PATCHY AND THAT
MATCHES THE WAY SOME OF THE OBS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN. WITH
THAT VARIABILITY...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ANYWHERE IN THE U.P. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. AM WONDERING IF THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL SLOW THE DISSIPATION A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO DID DELAY IT SLIGHTLY.

THE SECOND ITEM OF FOCUS HAS TO DO WITH THE CONVECTION OCCURRING
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NOW EVEN MAKING IT INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS CONVECTION REALLY TOOK OFF LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES AND THAT CAN BE SEEN
WITH THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A WEAKER WAVE
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE MAIN WAVE IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS ALSO HELPED BY A WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT IS STRETCHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN WAVE SEEMS TO HAVE TAKEN A MORE EAST-
NORTHEAST TRACK OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE SEEN THE
TRENDS IN BOTH RADAR AND LIGHTNING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

SO THERE ARE TWO QUESTION MARKS FOR TODAY. FIRST...HOW MUCH
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE (MID LEVEL
WAA WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY) AND TWO...HOW FAR NORTH WITH THE
COMPLEX WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MAKE IT. WITH THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE TRENDED THE POP FORECAST UP ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER
FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM A HIGH NEAR HUDSON
BAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
COMPLETELY SURE HOW FAR NORTH THINGS WILL GO WITH THE GENERALLY SLOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT DUE TO THE WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...BUT HAVE
MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.P. IN CHANCE POP CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE SECOND QUESTION...LOOKING AT THE FORCING
AND EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TRACK...WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE
NORTHERN EDGE BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE SEEN
SOME OF THE MODELS SHIFTING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN THAT AND BRING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. BUT THOSE
MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA...SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THAT OCCURRING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 11-12KFT...THINK HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR (STORM IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS
1HR RADAR ESTIMATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES). DIDN/T PUT TOO HIGH OF QPF
IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT...SO
WILL PROBABLY BE ADJUSTING THAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
CONVECTION SHOWS ITS HAND.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE FOLLOWED
THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. WITH SOME CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE AND
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE (ALONG WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
RAIN)...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE FOR THE TAFS TODAY...WITH GROUND FOG
OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFT NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE FOG TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE RAIN HAS ALREADY REACHED KIWD AND EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE SITE AND HAVE WENT
WITH PREDOMINATE THUNDER FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HAVE SEEN
GUSTS TO 30KTS OCCUR UPSTREAM IN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND LIKELY NEAR
OR IMPACT KCMX/KSAW. HAVE WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO INDICATIONS
IN THE MODELS THAT THE SHOWERS WILL RUN INTO DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEAKENING FORCING. THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY
FOCUS BACK TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER LATER TODAY BEFORE
DEPARTING THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN AND A CONTINUED WARM/MOIST
AIR MASS...SHOULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALL THREE
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HIGH MOVES EAST FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES THIS WEEKEND...WHILE KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW
20KTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHIFTING A COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. FINALLY...WITH A WARM/MOIST
AIR MASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR (MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS)...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 021919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

TWO FOCUSES FOR THE SHORT TERM TODAY...THE FOG TO START THE DAY AND
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS...WITH 4AM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND DEWPOINTS NEARLY IDENTICAL. THIS
HAS LED TO FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/4MI TO 4MI. LOOKING AT
WEBCAMS...THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG SEEM TO BE VERY PATCHY AND THAT
MATCHES THE WAY SOME OF THE OBS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN. WITH
THAT VARIABILITY...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ANYWHERE IN THE U.P. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. AM WONDERING IF THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL SLOW THE DISSIPATION A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO DID DELAY IT SLIGHTLY.

THE SECOND ITEM OF FOCUS HAS TO DO WITH THE CONVECTION OCCURRING
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NOW EVEN MAKING IT INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS CONVECTION REALLY TOOK OFF LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES AND THAT CAN BE SEEN
WITH THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A WEAKER WAVE
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE MAIN WAVE IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS ALSO HELPED BY A WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT IS STRETCHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN WAVE SEEMS TO HAVE TAKEN A MORE EAST-
NORTHEAST TRACK OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE SEEN THE
TRENDS IN BOTH RADAR AND LIGHTNING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

SO THERE ARE TWO QUESTION MARKS FOR TODAY. FIRST...HOW MUCH
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE (MID LEVEL
WAA WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY) AND TWO...HOW FAR NORTH WITH THE
COMPLEX WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MAKE IT. WITH THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE TRENDED THE POP FORECAST UP ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER
FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM A HIGH NEAR HUDSON
BAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
COMPLETELY SURE HOW FAR NORTH THINGS WILL GO WITH THE GENERALLY SLOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT DUE TO THE WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...BUT HAVE
MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.P. IN CHANCE POP CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE SECOND QUESTION...LOOKING AT THE FORCING
AND EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TRACK...WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE
NORTHERN EDGE BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE SEEN
SOME OF THE MODELS SHIFTING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN THAT AND BRING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. BUT THOSE
MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA...SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THAT OCCURRING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 11-12KFT...THINK HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR (STORM IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS
1HR RADAR ESTIMATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES). DIDN/T PUT TOO HIGH OF QPF
IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT...SO
WILL PROBABLY BE ADJUSTING THAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
CONVECTION SHOWS ITS HAND.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE FOLLOWED
THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. WITH SOME CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE AND
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE (ALONG WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
RAIN)...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE FOR THE TAFS TODAY...WITH GROUND FOG
OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFT NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE FOG TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE RAIN HAS ALREADY REACHED KIWD AND EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE SITE AND HAVE WENT
WITH PREDOMINATE THUNDER FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HAVE SEEN
GUSTS TO 30KTS OCCUR UPSTREAM IN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND LIKELY NEAR
OR IMPACT KCMX/KSAW. HAVE WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO INDICATIONS
IN THE MODELS THAT THE SHOWERS WILL RUN INTO DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEAKENING FORCING. THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY
FOCUS BACK TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER LATER TODAY BEFORE
DEPARTING THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN AND A CONTINUED WARM/MOIST
AIR MASS...SHOULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALL THREE
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HIGH MOVES EAST FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES THIS WEEKEND...WHILE KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW
20KTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHIFTING A COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. FINALLY...WITH A WARM/MOIST
AIR MASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR (MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS)...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

TWO FOCUSES FOR THE SHORT TERM TODAY...THE FOG TO START THE DAY AND
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS...WITH 4AM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND DEWPOINTS NEARLY IDENTICAL. THIS
HAS LED TO FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/4MI TO 4MI. LOOKING AT
WEBCAMS...THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG SEEM TO BE VERY PATCHY AND THAT
MATCHES THE WAY SOME OF THE OBS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN. WITH
THAT VARIABILITY...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ANYWHERE IN THE U.P. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. AM WONDERING IF THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL SLOW THE DISSIPATION A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO DID DELAY IT SLIGHTLY.

THE SECOND ITEM OF FOCUS HAS TO DO WITH THE CONVECTION OCCURRING
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NOW EVEN MAKING IT INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS CONVECTION REALLY TOOK OFF LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES AND THAT CAN BE SEEN
WITH THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A WEAKER WAVE
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE MAIN WAVE IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS ALSO HELPED BY A WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT IS STRETCHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN WAVE SEEMS TO HAVE TAKEN A MORE EAST-
NORTHEAST TRACK OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE SEEN THE
TRENDS IN BOTH RADAR AND LIGHTNING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

SO THERE ARE TWO QUESTION MARKS FOR TODAY. FIRST...HOW MUCH
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE (MID LEVEL
WAA WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY) AND TWO...HOW FAR NORTH WITH THE
COMPLEX WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MAKE IT. WITH THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE TRENDED THE POP FORECAST UP ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER
FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM A HIGH NEAR HUDSON
BAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
COMPLETELY SURE HOW FAR NORTH THINGS WILL GO WITH THE GENERALLY SLOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT DUE TO THE WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...BUT HAVE
MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.P. IN CHANCE POP CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE SECOND QUESTION...LOOKING AT THE FORCING
AND EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TRACK...WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE
NORTHERN EDGE BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE SEEN
SOME OF THE MODELS SHIFTING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN THAT AND BRING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. BUT THOSE
MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA...SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THAT OCCURRING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 11-12KFT...THINK HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR (STORM IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS
1HR RADAR ESTIMATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES). DIDN/T PUT TOO HIGH OF QPF
IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT...SO
WILL PROBABLY BE ADJUSTING THAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
CONVECTION SHOWS ITS HAND.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE FOLLOWED
THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. WITH SOME CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE AND
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE (ALONG WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
RAIN)...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE FOR THE TAFS TODAY...WITH GROUND FOG
OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFT NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE FOG TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE RAIN HAS ALREADY REACHED KIWD AND EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE SITE AND HAVE WENT
WITH PREDOMINATE THUNDER FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HAVE SEEN
GUSTS TO 30KTS OCCUR UPSTREAM IN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND LIKELY NEAR
OR IMPACT KCMX/KSAW. HAVE WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO INDICATIONS
IN THE MODELS THAT THE SHOWERS WILL RUN INTO DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEAKENING FORCING. THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY
FOCUS BACK TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER LATER TODAY BEFORE
DEPARTING THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN AND A CONTINUED WARM/MOIST
AIR MASS...SHOULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALL THREE
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HIGH MOVES EAST FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES THIS WEEKEND...WHILE KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW
20KTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHIFTING A COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. FINALLY...WITH A WARM/MOIST
AIR MASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR (MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS)...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021757
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM ONTARIO THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
UNSTABLE AND REMAINS THAT WAY THROUGH THE PASSAGE OF THESE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP RECENTLY TELLS ME THAT
THERE IS NOT MUCH HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION IN THIS UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS. SO I RAISED POPS AND QPF FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS WELL. IF WE DO END
UP WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...OUR VERY
WARM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY COULD TOO HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS DAILY WILL REACH THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE WITH
MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH DEW
POINT VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

MAINLY DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THAT FRONT. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
SHOULD FINALLY MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN SW AND SC LWR MI.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WITH
BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW LWR MI IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING 06Z-09Z AT MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL WHERE
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST... BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LAN AND JXN UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY (STILL SOME FOG AT THESE SITES THOUGH).

WILL FCST PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS... BUT IF STORMS PERSIST AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS... CONDITIONS COULD SETTLE INTO IFR FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT SOME OF THE TAF SITE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ACT TO KEEP THE WAVES LOW FOR OUR NEARSHORE WATERS. FOG COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021757
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM ONTARIO THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
UNSTABLE AND REMAINS THAT WAY THROUGH THE PASSAGE OF THESE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP RECENTLY TELLS ME THAT
THERE IS NOT MUCH HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION IN THIS UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS. SO I RAISED POPS AND QPF FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS WELL. IF WE DO END
UP WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...OUR VERY
WARM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY COULD TOO HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS DAILY WILL REACH THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE WITH
MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH DEW
POINT VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

MAINLY DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THAT FRONT. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
SHOULD FINALLY MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN SW AND SC LWR MI.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WITH
BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW LWR MI IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING 06Z-09Z AT MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL WHERE
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST... BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LAN AND JXN UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY (STILL SOME FOG AT THESE SITES THOUGH).

WILL FCST PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS... BUT IF STORMS PERSIST AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS... CONDITIONS COULD SETTLE INTO IFR FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT SOME OF THE TAF SITE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ACT TO KEEP THE WAVES LOW FOR OUR NEARSHORE WATERS. FOG COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021757
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM ONTARIO THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
UNSTABLE AND REMAINS THAT WAY THROUGH THE PASSAGE OF THESE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP RECENTLY TELLS ME THAT
THERE IS NOT MUCH HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION IN THIS UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS. SO I RAISED POPS AND QPF FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS WELL. IF WE DO END
UP WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...OUR VERY
WARM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY COULD TOO HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS DAILY WILL REACH THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE WITH
MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH DEW
POINT VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

MAINLY DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THAT FRONT. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
SHOULD FINALLY MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN SW AND SC LWR MI.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WITH
BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW LWR MI IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING 06Z-09Z AT MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL WHERE
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST... BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LAN AND JXN UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY (STILL SOME FOG AT THESE SITES THOUGH).

WILL FCST PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS... BUT IF STORMS PERSIST AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS... CONDITIONS COULD SETTLE INTO IFR FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT SOME OF THE TAF SITE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ACT TO KEEP THE WAVES LOW FOR OUR NEARSHORE WATERS. FOG COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021757
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM ONTARIO THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
UNSTABLE AND REMAINS THAT WAY THROUGH THE PASSAGE OF THESE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP RECENTLY TELLS ME THAT
THERE IS NOT MUCH HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION IN THIS UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS. SO I RAISED POPS AND QPF FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS WELL. IF WE DO END
UP WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...OUR VERY
WARM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY COULD TOO HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS DAILY WILL REACH THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE WITH
MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH DEW
POINT VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

MAINLY DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THAT FRONT. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
SHOULD FINALLY MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN SW AND SC LWR MI.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WITH
BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW LWR MI IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING 06Z-09Z AT MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL WHERE
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST... BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LAN AND JXN UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY (STILL SOME FOG AT THESE SITES THOUGH).

WILL FCST PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS... BUT IF STORMS PERSIST AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS... CONDITIONS COULD SETTLE INTO IFR FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT SOME OF THE TAF SITE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ACT TO KEEP THE WAVES LOW FOR OUR NEARSHORE WATERS. FOG COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KAPX 021749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

STILL IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL. 12Z SOUNDING SOMEWHAT OMINOUS...WITH ALREADY
OVER 2K J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODIFYING
SUCH SOUNDING FOR AN EXPECTED MID 80 AFTERNOON TEMP/UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS YIELDS UPWARDS OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES MORE OF ML CAPE
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...ANY DYNAMICS TO WORK OVER THIS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING...WITH WELL
DEFINED VORT/WAVE OUT WEST EXPECTED TO NOT IMPACT OUR AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT (IF AT ALL) AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING IN FROM OUR NORTH
LACKING ANY FORCED DEEP CONVERGENCE. GOTTA BELIEVE THERMAL INDUCED
INLAND LOW/ATTENDANT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL FORCE SOME
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...WITH BACKGROUND WEAK WEST FLOW SUGGESTING
BEST CONVERGENCE TARGETING THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUNRISE SIDE AND
POINTS INLAND TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ATTENDANT OUTFLOWS DRIVING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
PROPAGATION. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER DYNAMICS...WOULD EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN SCATTERED. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH DISORGANIZED AND WEAK WIND FIELDS. SAID CAPE AND RATHER
MOISTURE RICH PROFILES DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MICHIGAN
WITH ONE DEFINED SHORTWAVE DRIVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SRN
ONTARIO. THIS WAVE IS RIDING ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED/WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH STRETCHES BACK ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ULTIMATELY TO
LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE IN TUNE WITH THIS WAVE AS WELL...LIFTING
THROUGH SW MN AND WESTERN IOWA ON THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...BURIED UNDERNEATH 6.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE AIR MASS WAS
WARM AND MOIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SPORTING
SUMMERTIME-LIKE READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS NOT FAR BEHIND. LIGHT WINDS IN THIS ATMOSPHERE HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
UPPER PRIOR TO OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING...LAYING OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER
FOR THE PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND FIELDS WILL GET
GARBLED UP BY DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES...WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ACROSS NE LOWER. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS/LOCATION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE UNSTABLE OUT THERE...WITH THE
STEEP 6.5 C/KM LAYING OVER THE TOP OF US. THE RESULTING MLCAPES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3000 J/KG. RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
HERE. WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS IF
THE WEAKER WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS CAN GET HERE TO HELP...WHICH IS NOT
REALLY THE CASE RIGHT NOW...AS IT SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THUS...CAN SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THOUGH...MAINLY OVER NE
LOWER...INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ALSO...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
COULD RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND PRECIP LOADING A
POSSIBLE STRONG DOWNBURST. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...LAKE BREEZE- FOCUSED STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN (GREATER COVERAGE DUE TO THE WAVE) WILL
BE CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN...OR OTHER STORMS CAN DEVELOP FROM THE
WAVE...FOCUSING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE GTV BAY
REGION.

HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN EASTERN UPPER BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND AGAIN 85-90F FOR MUCH OF NRN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...

SUDDENLY A SEEMINGLY EASY FORECAST BECAME A TOUGHER ONE. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE WILL SNEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY STALL
OUT OVER THE REGION LEADING TO MORE CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. THIS WAVE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DAMPEN OUT...BUT THE ECMWF IS INSISTENT THAT IT WILL HOLD
ON LONG ENOUGH TO SPARK MORE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (THOUGH AM
BEING OPTIMISTIC AND NOT INCLUDING ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME  WHICH COULD END UP BEING A MISTAKE). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S (THOUGH IT MAY BE COOLER IF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THEN COOLING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND YIELDING VERY WARM BUT PRECIPITATION
FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON
INTO LABOR DAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN
TUESDAY ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STILL WATCHING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY TVC AND APN. THESE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...AND SPECIFIC
IMPACTS/IF ANY/ WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
PROPAGATION ARE REALIZED. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS
INITIAL CONVECTION WANES...WAITING ON WHAT IMPACTS UPSTREAM WAVE
HAS ON RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL BELIEVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DRIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THIS
FEATURE...IMPACTING TVC AND MBL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE BR/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL AIRMASS...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN
THE LAST FEW NIGHT.

WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL GREATLY DICTATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL TREND A TOUCH OPTIMISTIC...LETTING THINGS
EVOLVE TONIGHT BEFORE HITTING WITH MUCH DETAIL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LAKE MICHIGAN IS SEEING SOME GUSTINESS EARLY THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DRAPES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. WINDS WILL FALL OFF
WITH THE FRONT...AND LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH MORE LAKE BREEZES...BEFORE A SW WIND PICKS UP AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR PRIMARILY LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

STILL IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL. 12Z SOUNDING SOMEWHAT OMINOUS...WITH ALREADY
OVER 2K J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODIFYING
SUCH SOUNDING FOR AN EXPECTED MID 80 AFTERNOON TEMP/UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS YIELDS UPWARDS OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES MORE OF ML CAPE
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...ANY DYNAMICS TO WORK OVER THIS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING...WITH WELL
DEFINED VORT/WAVE OUT WEST EXPECTED TO NOT IMPACT OUR AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT (IF AT ALL) AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING IN FROM OUR NORTH
LACKING ANY FORCED DEEP CONVERGENCE. GOTTA BELIEVE THERMAL INDUCED
INLAND LOW/ATTENDANT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL FORCE SOME
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...WITH BACKGROUND WEAK WEST FLOW SUGGESTING
BEST CONVERGENCE TARGETING THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUNRISE SIDE AND
POINTS INLAND TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ATTENDANT OUTFLOWS DRIVING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
PROPAGATION. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER DYNAMICS...WOULD EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN SCATTERED. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH DISORGANIZED AND WEAK WIND FIELDS. SAID CAPE AND RATHER
MOISTURE RICH PROFILES DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MICHIGAN
WITH ONE DEFINED SHORTWAVE DRIVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SRN
ONTARIO. THIS WAVE IS RIDING ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED/WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH STRETCHES BACK ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ULTIMATELY TO
LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE IN TUNE WITH THIS WAVE AS WELL...LIFTING
THROUGH SW MN AND WESTERN IOWA ON THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...BURIED UNDERNEATH 6.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE AIR MASS WAS
WARM AND MOIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SPORTING
SUMMERTIME-LIKE READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS NOT FAR BEHIND. LIGHT WINDS IN THIS ATMOSPHERE HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
UPPER PRIOR TO OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING...LAYING OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER
FOR THE PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND FIELDS WILL GET
GARBLED UP BY DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES...WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ACROSS NE LOWER. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS/LOCATION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE UNSTABLE OUT THERE...WITH THE
STEEP 6.5 C/KM LAYING OVER THE TOP OF US. THE RESULTING MLCAPES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3000 J/KG. RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
HERE. WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS IF
THE WEAKER WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS CAN GET HERE TO HELP...WHICH IS NOT
REALLY THE CASE RIGHT NOW...AS IT SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THUS...CAN SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THOUGH...MAINLY OVER NE
LOWER...INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ALSO...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
COULD RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND PRECIP LOADING A
POSSIBLE STRONG DOWNBURST. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...LAKE BREEZE- FOCUSED STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN (GREATER COVERAGE DUE TO THE WAVE) WILL
BE CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN...OR OTHER STORMS CAN DEVELOP FROM THE
WAVE...FOCUSING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE GTV BAY
REGION.

HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN EASTERN UPPER BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND AGAIN 85-90F FOR MUCH OF NRN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...

SUDDENLY A SEEMINGLY EASY FORECAST BECAME A TOUGHER ONE. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE WILL SNEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY STALL
OUT OVER THE REGION LEADING TO MORE CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. THIS WAVE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DAMPEN OUT...BUT THE ECMWF IS INSISTENT THAT IT WILL HOLD
ON LONG ENOUGH TO SPARK MORE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (THOUGH AM
BEING OPTIMISTIC AND NOT INCLUDING ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME  WHICH COULD END UP BEING A MISTAKE). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S (THOUGH IT MAY BE COOLER IF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THEN COOLING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND YIELDING VERY WARM BUT PRECIPITATION
FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON
INTO LABOR DAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN
TUESDAY ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STILL WATCHING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY TVC AND APN. THESE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...AND SPECIFIC
IMPACTS/IF ANY/ WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
PROPAGATION ARE REALIZED. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS
INITIAL CONVECTION WANES...WAITING ON WHAT IMPACTS UPSTREAM WAVE
HAS ON RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL BELIEVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DRIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THIS
FEATURE...IMPACTING TVC AND MBL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE BR/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL AIRMASS...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN
THE LAST FEW NIGHT.

WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL GREATLY DICTATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL TREND A TOUCH OPTIMISTIC...LETTING THINGS
EVOLVE TONIGHT BEFORE HITTING WITH MUCH DETAIL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LAKE MICHIGAN IS SEEING SOME GUSTINESS EARLY THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DRAPES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. WINDS WILL FALL OFF
WITH THE FRONT...AND LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH MORE LAKE BREEZES...BEFORE A SW WIND PICKS UP AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR PRIMARILY LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

STILL IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL. 12Z SOUNDING SOMEWHAT OMINOUS...WITH ALREADY
OVER 2K J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODIFYING
SUCH SOUNDING FOR AN EXPECTED MID 80 AFTERNOON TEMP/UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS YIELDS UPWARDS OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES MORE OF ML CAPE
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...ANY DYNAMICS TO WORK OVER THIS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING...WITH WELL
DEFINED VORT/WAVE OUT WEST EXPECTED TO NOT IMPACT OUR AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT (IF AT ALL) AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING IN FROM OUR NORTH
LACKING ANY FORCED DEEP CONVERGENCE. GOTTA BELIEVE THERMAL INDUCED
INLAND LOW/ATTENDANT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL FORCE SOME
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...WITH BACKGROUND WEAK WEST FLOW SUGGESTING
BEST CONVERGENCE TARGETING THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUNRISE SIDE AND
POINTS INLAND TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ATTENDANT OUTFLOWS DRIVING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
PROPAGATION. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER DYNAMICS...WOULD EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN SCATTERED. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH DISORGANIZED AND WEAK WIND FIELDS. SAID CAPE AND RATHER
MOISTURE RICH PROFILES DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MICHIGAN
WITH ONE DEFINED SHORTWAVE DRIVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SRN
ONTARIO. THIS WAVE IS RIDING ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED/WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH STRETCHES BACK ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ULTIMATELY TO
LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE IN TUNE WITH THIS WAVE AS WELL...LIFTING
THROUGH SW MN AND WESTERN IOWA ON THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...BURIED UNDERNEATH 6.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE AIR MASS WAS
WARM AND MOIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SPORTING
SUMMERTIME-LIKE READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS NOT FAR BEHIND. LIGHT WINDS IN THIS ATMOSPHERE HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
UPPER PRIOR TO OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING...LAYING OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER
FOR THE PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND FIELDS WILL GET
GARBLED UP BY DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES...WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ACROSS NE LOWER. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS/LOCATION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE UNSTABLE OUT THERE...WITH THE
STEEP 6.5 C/KM LAYING OVER THE TOP OF US. THE RESULTING MLCAPES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3000 J/KG. RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
HERE. WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS IF
THE WEAKER WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS CAN GET HERE TO HELP...WHICH IS NOT
REALLY THE CASE RIGHT NOW...AS IT SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THUS...CAN SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THOUGH...MAINLY OVER NE
LOWER...INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ALSO...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
COULD RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND PRECIP LOADING A
POSSIBLE STRONG DOWNBURST. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...LAKE BREEZE- FOCUSED STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN (GREATER COVERAGE DUE TO THE WAVE) WILL
BE CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN...OR OTHER STORMS CAN DEVELOP FROM THE
WAVE...FOCUSING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE GTV BAY
REGION.

HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN EASTERN UPPER BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND AGAIN 85-90F FOR MUCH OF NRN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...

SUDDENLY A SEEMINGLY EASY FORECAST BECAME A TOUGHER ONE. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE WILL SNEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY STALL
OUT OVER THE REGION LEADING TO MORE CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. THIS WAVE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DAMPEN OUT...BUT THE ECMWF IS INSISTENT THAT IT WILL HOLD
ON LONG ENOUGH TO SPARK MORE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (THOUGH AM
BEING OPTIMISTIC AND NOT INCLUDING ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME  WHICH COULD END UP BEING A MISTAKE). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S (THOUGH IT MAY BE COOLER IF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THEN COOLING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND YIELDING VERY WARM BUT PRECIPITATION
FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON
INTO LABOR DAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN
TUESDAY ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STILL WATCHING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY TVC AND APN. THESE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...AND SPECIFIC
IMPACTS/IF ANY/ WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
PROPAGATION ARE REALIZED. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS
INITIAL CONVECTION WANES...WAITING ON WHAT IMPACTS UPSTREAM WAVE
HAS ON RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL BELIEVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DRIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THIS
FEATURE...IMPACTING TVC AND MBL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE BR/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL AIRMASS...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN
THE LAST FEW NIGHT.

WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL GREATLY DICTATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL TREND A TOUCH OPTIMISTIC...LETTING THINGS
EVOLVE TONIGHT BEFORE HITTING WITH MUCH DETAIL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LAKE MICHIGAN IS SEEING SOME GUSTINESS EARLY THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DRAPES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. WINDS WILL FALL OFF
WITH THE FRONT...AND LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH MORE LAKE BREEZES...BEFORE A SW WIND PICKS UP AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR PRIMARILY LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

STILL IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL. 12Z SOUNDING SOMEWHAT OMINOUS...WITH ALREADY
OVER 2K J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODIFYING
SUCH SOUNDING FOR AN EXPECTED MID 80 AFTERNOON TEMP/UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS YIELDS UPWARDS OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES MORE OF ML CAPE
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...ANY DYNAMICS TO WORK OVER THIS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING...WITH WELL
DEFINED VORT/WAVE OUT WEST EXPECTED TO NOT IMPACT OUR AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT (IF AT ALL) AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING IN FROM OUR NORTH
LACKING ANY FORCED DEEP CONVERGENCE. GOTTA BELIEVE THERMAL INDUCED
INLAND LOW/ATTENDANT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL FORCE SOME
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...WITH BACKGROUND WEAK WEST FLOW SUGGESTING
BEST CONVERGENCE TARGETING THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUNRISE SIDE AND
POINTS INLAND TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ATTENDANT OUTFLOWS DRIVING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
PROPAGATION. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER DYNAMICS...WOULD EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN SCATTERED. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH DISORGANIZED AND WEAK WIND FIELDS. SAID CAPE AND RATHER
MOISTURE RICH PROFILES DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MICHIGAN
WITH ONE DEFINED SHORTWAVE DRIVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SRN
ONTARIO. THIS WAVE IS RIDING ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED/WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH STRETCHES BACK ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ULTIMATELY TO
LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE IN TUNE WITH THIS WAVE AS WELL...LIFTING
THROUGH SW MN AND WESTERN IOWA ON THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...BURIED UNDERNEATH 6.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE AIR MASS WAS
WARM AND MOIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SPORTING
SUMMERTIME-LIKE READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS NOT FAR BEHIND. LIGHT WINDS IN THIS ATMOSPHERE HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
UPPER PRIOR TO OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING...LAYING OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER
FOR THE PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND FIELDS WILL GET
GARBLED UP BY DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES...WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ACROSS NE LOWER. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS/LOCATION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE UNSTABLE OUT THERE...WITH THE
STEEP 6.5 C/KM LAYING OVER THE TOP OF US. THE RESULTING MLCAPES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3000 J/KG. RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
HERE. WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS IF
THE WEAKER WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS CAN GET HERE TO HELP...WHICH IS NOT
REALLY THE CASE RIGHT NOW...AS IT SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THUS...CAN SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THOUGH...MAINLY OVER NE
LOWER...INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ALSO...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
COULD RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND PRECIP LOADING A
POSSIBLE STRONG DOWNBURST. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...LAKE BREEZE- FOCUSED STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN (GREATER COVERAGE DUE TO THE WAVE) WILL
BE CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN...OR OTHER STORMS CAN DEVELOP FROM THE
WAVE...FOCUSING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE GTV BAY
REGION.

HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN EASTERN UPPER BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND AGAIN 85-90F FOR MUCH OF NRN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...

SUDDENLY A SEEMINGLY EASY FORECAST BECAME A TOUGHER ONE. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE WILL SNEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY STALL
OUT OVER THE REGION LEADING TO MORE CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. THIS WAVE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DAMPEN OUT...BUT THE ECMWF IS INSISTENT THAT IT WILL HOLD
ON LONG ENOUGH TO SPARK MORE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (THOUGH AM
BEING OPTIMISTIC AND NOT INCLUDING ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME  WHICH COULD END UP BEING A MISTAKE). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S (THOUGH IT MAY BE COOLER IF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THEN COOLING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND YIELDING VERY WARM BUT PRECIPITATION
FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON
INTO LABOR DAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN
TUESDAY ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STILL WATCHING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY TVC AND APN. THESE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...AND SPECIFIC
IMPACTS/IF ANY/ WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
PROPAGATION ARE REALIZED. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS
INITIAL CONVECTION WANES...WAITING ON WHAT IMPACTS UPSTREAM WAVE
HAS ON RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL BELIEVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DRIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THIS
FEATURE...IMPACTING TVC AND MBL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE BR/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL AIRMASS...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN
THE LAST FEW NIGHT.

WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL GREATLY DICTATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL TREND A TOUCH OPTIMISTIC...LETTING THINGS
EVOLVE TONIGHT BEFORE HITTING WITH MUCH DETAIL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LAKE MICHIGAN IS SEEING SOME GUSTINESS EARLY THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DRAPES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. WINDS WILL FALL OFF
WITH THE FRONT...AND LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH MORE LAKE BREEZES...BEFORE A SW WIND PICKS UP AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR PRIMARILY LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

STILL IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL. 12Z SOUNDING SOMEWHAT OMINOUS...WITH ALREADY
OVER 2K J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODIFYING
SUCH SOUNDING FOR AN EXPECTED MID 80 AFTERNOON TEMP/UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS YIELDS UPWARDS OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES MORE OF ML CAPE
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...ANY DYNAMICS TO WORK OVER THIS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING...WITH WELL
DEFINED VORT/WAVE OUT WEST EXPECTED TO NOT IMPACT OUR AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT (IF AT ALL) AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING IN FROM OUR NORTH
LACKING ANY FORCED DEEP CONVERGENCE. GOTTA BELIEVE THERMAL INDUCED
INLAND LOW/ATTENDANT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL FORCE SOME
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...WITH BACKGROUND WEAK WEST FLOW SUGGESTING
BEST CONVERGENCE TARGETING THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUNRISE SIDE AND
POINTS INLAND TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ATTENDANT OUTFLOWS DRIVING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
PROPAGATION. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER DYNAMICS...WOULD EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN SCATTERED. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH DISORGANIZED AND WEAK WIND FIELDS. SAID CAPE AND RATHER
MOISTURE RICH PROFILES DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MICHIGAN
WITH ONE DEFINED SHORTWAVE DRIVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SRN
ONTARIO. THIS WAVE IS RIDING ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED/WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH STRETCHES BACK ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ULTIMATELY TO
LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE IN TUNE WITH THIS WAVE AS WELL...LIFTING
THROUGH SW MN AND WESTERN IOWA ON THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...BURIED UNDERNEATH 6.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE AIR MASS WAS
WARM AND MOIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SPORTING
SUMMERTIME-LIKE READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS NOT FAR BEHIND. LIGHT WINDS IN THIS ATMOSPHERE HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
UPPER PRIOR TO OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING...LAYING OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER
FOR THE PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND FIELDS WILL GET
GARBLED UP BY DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES...WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ACROSS NE LOWER. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS/LOCATION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE UNSTABLE OUT THERE...WITH THE
STEEP 6.5 C/KM LAYING OVER THE TOP OF US. THE RESULTING MLCAPES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3000 J/KG. RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
HERE. WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS IF
THE WEAKER WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS CAN GET HERE TO HELP...WHICH IS NOT
REALLY THE CASE RIGHT NOW...AS IT SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THUS...CAN SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THOUGH...MAINLY OVER NE
LOWER...INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ALSO...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
COULD RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND PRECIP LOADING A
POSSIBLE STRONG DOWNBURST. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...LAKE BREEZE- FOCUSED STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN (GREATER COVERAGE DUE TO THE WAVE) WILL
BE CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN...OR OTHER STORMS CAN DEVELOP FROM THE
WAVE...FOCUSING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE GTV BAY
REGION.

HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN EASTERN UPPER BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND AGAIN 85-90F FOR MUCH OF NRN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...

SUDDENLY A SEEMINGLY EASY FORECAST BECAME A TOUGHER ONE. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE WILL SNEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY STALL
OUT OVER THE REGION LEADING TO MORE CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. THIS WAVE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DAMPEN OUT...BUT THE ECMWF IS INSISTENT THAT IT WILL HOLD
ON LONG ENOUGH TO SPARK MORE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (THOUGH AM
BEING OPTIMISTIC AND NOT INCLUDING ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME  WHICH COULD END UP BEING A MISTAKE). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S (THOUGH IT MAY BE COOLER IF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THEN COOLING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND YIELDING VERY WARM BUT PRECIPITATION
FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON
INTO LABOR DAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN
TUESDAY ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STILL WATCHING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY TVC AND APN. THESE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...AND SPECIFIC
IMPACTS/IF ANY/ WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
PROPAGATION ARE REALIZED. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS
INITIAL CONVECTION WANES...WAITING ON WHAT IMPACTS UPSTREAM WAVE
HAS ON RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL BELIEVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DRIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THIS
FEATURE...IMPACTING TVC AND MBL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE BR/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL AIRMASS...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN
THE LAST FEW NIGHT.

WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL GREATLY DICTATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL TREND A TOUCH OPTIMISTIC...LETTING THINGS
EVOLVE TONIGHT BEFORE HITTING WITH MUCH DETAIL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LAKE MICHIGAN IS SEEING SOME GUSTINESS EARLY THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DRAPES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. WINDS WILL FALL OFF
WITH THE FRONT...AND LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH MORE LAKE BREEZES...BEFORE A SW WIND PICKS UP AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR PRIMARILY LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 021749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

STILL IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL. 12Z SOUNDING SOMEWHAT OMINOUS...WITH ALREADY
OVER 2K J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODIFYING
SUCH SOUNDING FOR AN EXPECTED MID 80 AFTERNOON TEMP/UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS YIELDS UPWARDS OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES MORE OF ML CAPE
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...ANY DYNAMICS TO WORK OVER THIS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING...WITH WELL
DEFINED VORT/WAVE OUT WEST EXPECTED TO NOT IMPACT OUR AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT (IF AT ALL) AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING IN FROM OUR NORTH
LACKING ANY FORCED DEEP CONVERGENCE. GOTTA BELIEVE THERMAL INDUCED
INLAND LOW/ATTENDANT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL FORCE SOME
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...WITH BACKGROUND WEAK WEST FLOW SUGGESTING
BEST CONVERGENCE TARGETING THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUNRISE SIDE AND
POINTS INLAND TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ATTENDANT OUTFLOWS DRIVING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
PROPAGATION. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER DYNAMICS...WOULD EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN SCATTERED. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH DISORGANIZED AND WEAK WIND FIELDS. SAID CAPE AND RATHER
MOISTURE RICH PROFILES DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MICHIGAN
WITH ONE DEFINED SHORTWAVE DRIVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SRN
ONTARIO. THIS WAVE IS RIDING ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED/WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH STRETCHES BACK ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ULTIMATELY TO
LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE IN TUNE WITH THIS WAVE AS WELL...LIFTING
THROUGH SW MN AND WESTERN IOWA ON THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...BURIED UNDERNEATH 6.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE AIR MASS WAS
WARM AND MOIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SPORTING
SUMMERTIME-LIKE READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS NOT FAR BEHIND. LIGHT WINDS IN THIS ATMOSPHERE HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
UPPER PRIOR TO OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING...LAYING OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER
FOR THE PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND FIELDS WILL GET
GARBLED UP BY DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES...WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ACROSS NE LOWER. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS/LOCATION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE UNSTABLE OUT THERE...WITH THE
STEEP 6.5 C/KM LAYING OVER THE TOP OF US. THE RESULTING MLCAPES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3000 J/KG. RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
HERE. WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS IF
THE WEAKER WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS CAN GET HERE TO HELP...WHICH IS NOT
REALLY THE CASE RIGHT NOW...AS IT SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THUS...CAN SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THOUGH...MAINLY OVER NE
LOWER...INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ALSO...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
COULD RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND PRECIP LOADING A
POSSIBLE STRONG DOWNBURST. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...LAKE BREEZE- FOCUSED STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN (GREATER COVERAGE DUE TO THE WAVE) WILL
BE CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN...OR OTHER STORMS CAN DEVELOP FROM THE
WAVE...FOCUSING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE GTV BAY
REGION.

HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN EASTERN UPPER BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND AGAIN 85-90F FOR MUCH OF NRN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...

SUDDENLY A SEEMINGLY EASY FORECAST BECAME A TOUGHER ONE. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE WILL SNEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY STALL
OUT OVER THE REGION LEADING TO MORE CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. THIS WAVE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DAMPEN OUT...BUT THE ECMWF IS INSISTENT THAT IT WILL HOLD
ON LONG ENOUGH TO SPARK MORE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (THOUGH AM
BEING OPTIMISTIC AND NOT INCLUDING ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME  WHICH COULD END UP BEING A MISTAKE). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S (THOUGH IT MAY BE COOLER IF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THEN COOLING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND YIELDING VERY WARM BUT PRECIPITATION
FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON
INTO LABOR DAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN
TUESDAY ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STILL WATCHING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY TVC AND APN. THESE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...AND SPECIFIC
IMPACTS/IF ANY/ WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
PROPAGATION ARE REALIZED. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS
INITIAL CONVECTION WANES...WAITING ON WHAT IMPACTS UPSTREAM WAVE
HAS ON RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL BELIEVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DRIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THIS
FEATURE...IMPACTING TVC AND MBL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE BR/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL AIRMASS...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN
THE LAST FEW NIGHT.

WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL GREATLY DICTATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL TREND A TOUCH OPTIMISTIC...LETTING THINGS
EVOLVE TONIGHT BEFORE HITTING WITH MUCH DETAIL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LAKE