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000
FXUS63 KMQT 242354
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
754 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG THAT COVERED MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W
TO E. EXPECT THE FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES OVER FAR
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES TO THE NE...BUT WITH MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR NERN
LUCE COUNTY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PATH. ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAINLY OVER THE ERN/NERN CWA.
HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
SPREADING FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI WILL ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE BEING SWEPT SE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NOW FOR THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
TIGHT BETWEEN THE 987MB SFC LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND THE 1020MB RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND IA...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
WNW 925MB WINDS OF 38-45KTS ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI AT
18Z...STRENGTHENING TO 40-50KTS AT 00Z SUN. IF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT /SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE 0C AT 850MB/ AND THERE
WAS MORE OF AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WINDS WOULD LIKELY GUST TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLE NERN UPPER MI
NEAR THE SHORE ON SAT. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECT GUSTS TO 40MPH MAX IN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS. DO THINK WINDS JUSTIFY A
GALE WATCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LONG
TERM FORECASTER TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON LAKE PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH HI PRES WL BRING DRY WX FOR SAT NGT/SUN...THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE WX PATTERN AS A
PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS...THE FIRST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE SECOND ON THU. EXPECT TEMPS INTO TUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COLDER AIR IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE TUE NGT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND LINGER THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SECOND SHRTWV...THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SN AT LEAST OVER THE NW HALF IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN.

SAT NGT/SUN...DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG
ALF APRCHG FM THE PLAINS WL SUPPORT SFC HI PRES/AXIS OF MID LVL DRY
AIR THAT WL DOMINATE THE GREAT LKS. SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
APRCHG SFC HI PRES RDG AND SFC LO PRES MOVING INTO QUEBEC/FCST H925
WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS THAT MAY APRCH
ADVY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP EARLY ON SAT EVNG. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STRONGER WINDS WL BE ABSENCE OF SGNFT H85 THERMAL
TROFFING AND ISALLOBARIC WIND/RELATIVELY CHILLY LK SUP WATER TEMPS
THAT LIMIT LLVL INSTABILITY. THESE WINDS WL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE
NGT WITH SLOW APRCH OF SFC RDG AXIS/ WEAKER GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION. DESPITE MOCLR SKIES ON SAT NGT... THE STEADY NW FLOW
WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS ON SUN MRNG
OVER THE E NEAR LK SUP WL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RDG AXIS IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS MAY ARRIVE ON SUN AFTN
WITH APRCH OF WAD IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT
HI TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 10C OVER
THE W BY 00Z MON.

SUN NGT/MON...AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS THRU SE CANADA INTO THE NE
CONUS AND LEAD SHRTWV LIFTS OUT OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE WRN
PLAINS...A VIGOROUS WAD PATTERN IS PROGGED TO SETUP IN THE WRN
LKS...SHOWN BEST ON THE 300-305K ISENTROPIC SFCS /H8-675/. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR...OPTED
TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...SHIFTING W-E ACRS UPR MI
AFT 06Z MON. ADDED A SCHC OF TS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAD BAND TO
ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 500J/KG ROOTED AT H8-85 AS
SHOWN ON NAM/GFS FCS SDNGS. WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOTTING/MID LVL
CAPPING ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHRTWV PASSAGE THRU NW
ONTARIO...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DIMINISH W-E DURING
THE DAY ON MON. BUT PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS WL LINGER N OF SFC WARM FNT
IN WI...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RISE OF TEMP. TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE AS FCST SDNGS SHOW HI LLVL STABILITY N OF THE WARM
FNT.

MON NGT/TUE...AS STRONGER SHRTWV DRAGS THE PLAINS TROF E INTO THE
UPR LKS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO REDVLP IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES/
ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FNT. THE COVERAGE/EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS  WL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL WAD RAIN BAND.

TUE/WED...SHARP CYC WNW FLOW/LINGERING DEEP MSTR IN TANDEM WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -5C BY 12Z WED LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
SHRTWV/SFC LO NEAR JAMES BAY WL SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPING LK ENHANCED
SHOWERS THAT WL MIX WITH SN AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
NW HALF BY LATE TUE NGT. THIS PCPN WL DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF H5 RDG
AXIS/SFC HI PRES RDG ON WED. A GUSTY WNW WIND WL ALSO DEVELOP ON TUE
UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE SW FLANK OF LO MOVING TO THE NE BUT
THEN SUBSIDE ON WED WITH CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI.

THU/FRI...EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG SHRTWV WL BE DIGGING
SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS BUT DIFFER SGNFTLY IN THE DETAILS...EVEN
WHETHER THE DISTURBANCE WL PASS TO THE S OR N OF UPR MI. THERE HAS
BEEN CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AS
WELL...SO WL RELY ON A CONSENSUS APRCH FOR NOW. THE MODELS WHICH
SHOW A FARTHER S TRACK...NOTABLY THE 00Z ECMWF...INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SGNFT ACCUMULATING SN. THE 12Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF
ON THIS FCST AND SHOWS THE STRONGER SHRTWV PASSING THRU NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR MI. BUT H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -10C WL SUPPORT SOME
LES EVEN IF THERE IS LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RIBBON OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTING NE THRU NRN WI SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO KSAW LATER THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO WATCH LOW STRATUS (LIFR/IFR CIGS) EXPANDING N AROUND LAKE MI.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO KEEP THIS STRATUS JUST E OF KSAW THIS EVENING. IF THE
STRATUS DOES REACH KSAW...IT WILL HAPPEN BTWN 01-04Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS FCST PERIOD AS A
SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS TONIGHT...
ENDING EITHER AFTER FROPA OR IN THE MORNING AFTER THE SUN RISES.
WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE RESULTING IN
GOOD MIXING...WINDS SAT WILL BE GUSTY TO 25-35KT AT ALL
TERMINALS...STRONGEST AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LO PRES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL DEEPPEN AND TRACK E TO FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY SAT EVENING...DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. UNDER THE TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT WNW GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO
DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR SAT MORNING
THRU SAT EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A HI
PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT TO MOVE TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
ON SUN. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL DIMINISH THE GALES.
ANOTHER LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK E...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. AS
THE LO TRACKS NE TO JAMES BAY ON WED...ANOTHER W GALE IS LIKELY FOR
TUE INTO WED UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SW FLANK. A
WEAK HI PRES RIDGE WILL THEN DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WED. THE APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL
DIMINISH THE GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC






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000
FXUS63 KAPX 242343
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION PROVIDES SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MORE DRIZZLE? ...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TO DROP TEMPERATURES LOWER TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE FORECAST IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MOISTURE EXTENDS TO THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST IS THE SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT...WHILE THE CLEARING LINE IN WISCONSIN IS BEGINNING TO HEAD
OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, MORE MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA, WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MOVES IN POST 04Z. ONCE THE NEXT BATCH IS IN HERE,
AND WITH THE TIGHTER SFC GRADIENT, WILL EXPECT THAT THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO HEAD BACK UP OR AT THE VERY LEAST HOLD STEADY AS WE
HEAD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE FORMATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS,
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
HEIGHT, SO WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WHILE AREAS OF LIGHT FOG
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT
LOOKS LIKE AROUND 12Z THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH,
SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND STRONG JET ENERGY
FLOWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SPLIT ACROSS EASTERN
NOAM...WITH AN OLD CUT-OFF FEATURE LIFTING NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SPLIT SHORT WAVE ENERGY (THAT BROUGHT US
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT) NOW EXITING THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE
PIECE MOVING UP THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER MOVING DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE SE ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...NARROW RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS SPANS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND LOOKING TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN STILL
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH/NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WAS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A RECONFIGURATION WITH A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR AND LARGER
SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM AND THE GREAT
LAKES...RAISING THE POSSIBILITIES FOR OUR FIRST SNOW OF THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...RECENT EURO/GFS/GEM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF
THIS IDEA...SOMEWHAT...AND INSTEAD HANG ON TO EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGHING WHILE MAINTAINING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. COLDER AIR DOES STILL MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH OUT OF THE ARCTIC
NEXT WEEK...BUT TRENDS SUGGEST MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
FOR THE GREAT LAKES WHILE CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...AS GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE
EXHIBITED A FAIR AMOUNT OF INCONSISTENCY.

IN THE NEARER TERM...BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL TAKE A DIP DOWN THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE STATE BY EVENING. VERY LITTLE ORGANIZED PRECIP
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONGER FORCING WILL RESIDE WELL
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST IS FAIRLY DRY. ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER MOISTURE/
FORCING...ALTHOUGH THERE VERY WELL COULD BE SPOTTY RETURNS/SPRINKLES
ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...NEXT BATCH OF
STRATUS ALREADY ACROSS IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET
DRAWN UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH DRIZZLE
AGAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING
FORECAST ALREADY PAINTS THAT SCENARIO.

BEHIND THE FRONT...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
MIXING AND DRYING THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE BREEZY NW WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN A DECENT DAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH WITH NW FLOW AND COOL LOW
LEVEL TEMPS...AM A BIT CONCERNED WE SEE A BIT MORE LAKE RESPONSE/
LAKE CLOUDS. THEN...A COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
DEEPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE
CONUS DURING THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME BRINGING A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR FOR MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES START TO
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM
ADVECTION FORCING PART OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SFC/UPPER LOW AND
FRONT ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION.

GRADUALLY DRIES OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH COLDER
AIR OVER THE LAKES (-2C TO -4C H8 TEMPS) AND DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW/
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...W/NW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...PERHAPS A BREAK/DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY. BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...EXPECT A BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR DOWN THROUGH CANADA AND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. JUST HOW MUCH COLD
AIR GETS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDS NOW KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR UP THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT COLDER NONETHELESS BY HALLOWEEN WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WORDING IN EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MVFR TO IFR CIGS TONIGHT AND TO START SAT MORNING...THEN QUICKLY
TURNING BREEZY AND VFR.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ADVANCE
QUICKLY TO THE EAST...CROSSING NORTHERN MI TOWARD DAYBREAK. MVFR
TO AT TIMES IFR CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH SOME
BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD DECK ARE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI.
MBL AND PERHAPS APN WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRIEFLY BE
ENHANCED...WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS (IFR) AND PERHAPS SOME
-DZ/BR. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT SAT MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY NOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE SFC AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE IN NW LOWER IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS
AFTER 06Z, AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT HEIGHTS (3
TO 5 FEET) BY SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
EVENTUALLY, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
LAKE HURON AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AREA FROM THE MACKINAC
BRIDGE TO NORTH POINT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THE
WAVES SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL






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000
FXUS63 KGRR 242303
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS IN TONIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. MORE RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST. CLOUD TRENDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST
FOCUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT HAS HELD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE BREAKS ARE OPENING UP...AND WE
EXPECT THESE TO EXPAND AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
MO RIVER AS OF 19Z. THERE IS LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S FRONT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER JET SUPPORT BOTH STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WEAK LL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WORKING ON A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PCPN TONIGHT OR
SAT MORNING.

THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT...AND
SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA BY ABOUT 20Z OR SO. SHORTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE LOWER CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS SHOULD
SNEAK INTO THE 60S AS BEST CAA DOES NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL SAT NIGHT.
WE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN THROUGH SUN EVENING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
ON SUN NIGHT. THE STRONG SYSTEM OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL
OPEN UP A BIT AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN A WARM FRONT TO OUR SW AND
DRIVE IT IN HERE LATE SUN NIGHT. A DECENT SURGE OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW. THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED LI/S GOING NEGATIVE OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THIS PERIOD IS ONE OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST ON HALLOWEEN. A STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN WE GET A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY TO HAVE A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT IN THE THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

THE REMNANTS OF EXTRATROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT PACIFIC
TROPICAL STORM ANA NOW LOCATED WELL NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MERGES WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEM  MOVING ON SHORE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TYPICALLY THE MODELS UNDERPLAY THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS SO I
WOULD IMAGINE WHAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE WILL BE STRONGER AND SLOWER
THEN THE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THAT FAVORS THE LOWER ECMWF SO I
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ALSO THERE IS
DECENT INSTABILITY (850 LI NEGATIVE) AND THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40
KNOTS AT 12Z NEAR SBN INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KNOTS BY DTW BY TUESDAY
EVENING. WHEN WE ADD THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 100 KNOT 300 MB JET TO
THE PICTURE AND NEAR NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH... I HAVE TO BELIEVE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE TUESDAY.  I PUT LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS.

THAT SYSTEM TAPS SOME COLD AIR SO WE WOULD GET SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THE REAL ISSUE IS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HERE WE
HAVE 130 TO 140 KNOT JET DIVING INTO THE ALREADY CREATED EASTERN
TROUGH. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GIVEN THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA... I AM THINKING THAT SYSTEM WILL BE FARTHER WEST AND
DEEPER SO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BE BIGGER AND THERE WILL BE MORE
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WEATHER BY FAR FOR THIS SEASON SO
FAR. I DID NOT PUT SNOW IN THE GRIDS YET BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SNOW STARTS SHOWING UP THE GRIDS FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE
IMPACT CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MI.

IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT LEADING TO AVIATION IMPACTS. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KMKG AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD GO VFR FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE ENTIRE REGION COOLS
OFF..THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FOG AND STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE
IMPACT CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP SOONER THAN FORECASTED. AVIATORS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY...BUT VFR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT FOR
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS BY THEN IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT COMING THROUGH. WE
WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. IT IS LOOKING LIKELY
WE WILL SEE WINDS AND WAVES HIT CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE
COMING DOWN ON SUN.

IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MON AND REMAIN UP
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AT
THAT TIME ALSO.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ARE STARTING OUT AROUND AVERAGE WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER WE HAVE
HAD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL AT LEAST SUN
NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. EACH OF THESE
RAIN EVENTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH ONLY A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH EACH EVENT. THESE AMOUNTS SPREAD OUT OVER
THE WEEK WILL NOT CAUSE ANY MAJOR RISES ON THE AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 242301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A WEAKENING TROUGH RESULTED IN A STRATO CU
FIELD WHICH SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE TERMINALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2
TO 3 HOURS. THERE HAS APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO LIFT
BASES INTO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT THESE CLOUDS BY LATE
EVENING. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG AND OR/LOW
STRATUS WITH SUBTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST THOUGHTS REMAIN THAT FOG WILL BE MORE PROBABLE.
HOWEVER...TRENDS WITH THE LOW STRATUS NOW COVERING W-CNTL LOWER MI
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THEY MAY SLIDE INTO MBS
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG ANOTHER SFC
TROUGH WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS /MVFR OR POSSIBLE
IFR/ BACK TO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FOR DTW...GIVEN THE LIGHT WIND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SOME POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS...RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY DUE TO
FOG LATE TONIGHT WILL BE KEPT IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING...LOW
  CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SATURDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TONIGHT

THE TREND OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS UNDER A FRAGMENTED STRATO-CU DECK
CONTINUES TODAY. SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME SPOTTY CLEARING IN THE CLOUD FIELD...AND THESE WILL BE THE
AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE
TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ADD TO THE DEPTH OF A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS H85 TEMPS UP FROM
5 TO 10C IN 12 HOURS. EXPECTING A VERY WARM NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
AS THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT QUITE CROSS INTO THE CWA BY 12Z. WENT
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINS...BUT COULD EVEN SEE 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER IF OVERCAST CONDITIONS PERSIST ALL EVENING.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS
CHANCE WILL BE MITIGATED BY WINDS AROUND 5KT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT AND RADIATE WILL HOLD THE BEST CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPING FOG...AND THAT CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-69 AT
THIS POINT. MODEL 925MB MOISTURE IS QUITE ROBUST TONIGHT...SO THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDY/WARM/FOGLESS CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z. DEPTH OF MOISTURE MAY ALSO ADD A NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED
BY THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ATTENDENT TO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX INVADING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS DEPICT THIS WELL WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY IMPINGING DOWN INTO AND BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE HURON. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FORECAST ANALYSES SHOW A FAVORABLE
STRUCTURE SUPPORTIVE OF WAA ASCENT FROM ROUGHLY 9-16Z SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WARM/MOIST THETA E WASH. THERE IS A GOOD INITIAL
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPPED BY VERY STRONG AND ACTIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE IS NOISY AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON A
DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT. SATURATION IS GOING TO BE RAZOR THIN IN
AND AROUND A POTENTIAL THIN UNSTABLE POCKET BETWEEN 925-900MB. THROW
IN THE MODEL TRYING TO MAINTAIN SOME NOISY AND SPURIOUS CONVECTIVE
SHREDS...AND WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON EDT. AT MINIMUM THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE SOME
VIRGA ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR. IF ANY PRECIPITATION WERE TO
MEASURE...LOOKING AT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO MAX. TIME OF YEAR REQUIRES
ADDITIONAL ATTENTION TO CLOUDS. THERE IS A GOOD TRAPPING OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION STRUCTURE WITH SOME
HINTS THAT SATURATION WILL ALSO EXIST WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED METERS OF
THE STABLE LAYER. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE AND THE
INHERITED FORECAST TO GO SLUGGISH WITH THE EXIT OF CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THAT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN CLOUDS
UNTIL AS LATE AS 4 PM...WITH A RAPID CLEARING TREND THEREAFTER.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO CLEAR SEMICH BETWEEN 15-21Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW OF 10-20 MPH WILL HELP THE
MECHANICAL MIXING PROCESS IN WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO
FALL FROM 8-9C SATURDAY...DOWN TO 3-5C FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHICH GIVES NO SHOT AT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LEAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAKING INTO THE AREA. NOT REALLY BAD THOUGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER...PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CHECKING IN RIGHT AT AVERAGE.

MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SE MI BEGINNING MONDAY. WET WEATHER
LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...WITH COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

MARINE...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH COLD AIR
POSSIBLY BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE HURON. IT IS
BEHIND THIS DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL POSITION ITSELF. A SHIFT IN
PLACEMENT TO THE NORTH WOULD LEAD TO RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED
CONDITIONS. WILL FORGO THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BUT DID INCREASE FORECASTED WINDGUSTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 30
KNOT RANGE. STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ESTABLISHED
NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....CB/DE
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 242002
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG THAT COVERED MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W
TO E. EXPECT THE FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES OVER FAR
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES TO THE NE...BUT WITH MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR NERN
LUCE COUNTY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PATH. ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAINLY OVER THE ERN/NERN CWA.
HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
SPREADING FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI WILL ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE BEING SWEPT SE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NOW FOR THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
TIGHT BETWEEN THE 987MB SFC LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND THE 1020MB RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND IA...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
WNW 925MB WINDS OF 38-45KTS ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI AT
18Z...STRENGTHENING TO 40-50KTS AT 00Z SUN. IF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT /SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE 0C AT 850MB/ AND THERE
WAS MORE OF AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WINDS WOULD LIKELY GUST TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLE NERN UPPER MI
NEAR THE SHORE ON SAT. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECT GUSTS TO 40MPH MAX IN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS. DO THINK WINDS JUSTIFY A
GALE WATCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LONG
TERM FORECASTER TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON LAKE PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH HI PRES WL BRING DRY WX FOR SAT NGT/SUN...THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE WX PATTERN AS A
PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS...THE FIRST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE SECOND ON THU. EXPECT TEMPS INTO TUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COLDER AIR IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE TUE NGT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND LINGER THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SECOND SHRTWV...THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SN AT LEAST OVER THE NW HALF IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN.

SAT NGT/SUN...DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG
ALF APRCHG FM THE PLAINS WL SUPPORT SFC HI PRES/AXIS OF MID LVL DRY
AIR THAT WL DOMINATE THE GREAT LKS. SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
APRCHG SFC HI PRES RDG AND SFC LO PRES MOVING INTO QUEBEC/FCST H925
WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS THAT MAY APRCH
ADVY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP EARLY ON SAT EVNG. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STRONGER WINDS WL BE ABSENCE OF SGNFT H85 THERMAL
TROFFING AND ISALLOBARIC WIND/RELATIVELY CHILLY LK SUP WATER TEMPS
THAT LIMIT LLVL INSTABILITY. THESE WINDS WL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE
NGT WITH SLOW APRCH OF SFC RDG AXIS/ WEAKER GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION. DESPITE MOCLR SKIES ON SAT NGT... THE STEADY NW FLOW
WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS ON SUN MRNG
OVER THE E NEAR LK SUP WL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RDG AXIS IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS MAY ARRIVE ON SUN AFTN
WITH APRCH OF WAD IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT
HI TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 10C OVER
THE W BY 00Z MON.

SUN NGT/MON...AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS THRU SE CANADA INTO THE NE
CONUS AND LEAD SHRTWV LIFTS OUT OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE WRN
PLAINS...A VIGOROUS WAD PATTERN IS PROGGED TO SETUP IN THE WRN
LKS...SHOWN BEST ON THE 300-305K ISENTROPIC SFCS /H8-675/. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR...OPTED
TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...SHIFTING W-E ACRS UPR MI
AFT 06Z MON. ADDED A SCHC OF TS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAD BAND TO
ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 500J/KG ROOTED AT H8-85 AS
SHOWN ON NAM/GFS FCS SDNGS. WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOTTING/MID LVL
CAPPING ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHRTWV PASSAGE THRU NW
ONTARIO...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DIMINISH W-E DURING
THE DAY ON MON. BUT PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS WL LINGER N OF SFC WARM FNT
IN WI...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RISE OF TEMP. TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE AS FCST SDNGS SHOW HI LLVL STABILITY N OF THE WARM
FNT.

MON NGT/TUE...AS STRONGER SHRTWV DRAGS THE PLAINS TROF E INTO THE
UPR LKS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO REDVLP IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES/
ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FNT. THE COVERAGE/EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS  WL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL WAD RAIN BAND.

TUE/WED...SHARP CYC WNW FLOW/LINGERING DEEP MSTR IN TANDEM WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -5C BY 12Z WED LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
SHRTWV/SFC LO NEAR JAMES BAY WL SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPING LK ENHANCED
SHOWERS THAT WL MIX WITH SN AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
NW HALF BY LATE TUE NGT. THIS PCPN WL DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF H5 RDG
AXIS/SFC HI PRES RDG ON WED. A GUSTY WNW WIND WL ALSO DEVELOP ON TUE
UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE SW FLANK OF LO MOVING TO THE NE BUT
THEN SUBSIDE ON WED WITH CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI.

THU/FRI...EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG SHRTWV WL BE DIGGING
SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS BUT DIFFER SGNFTLY IN THE DETAILS...EVEN
WHETHER THE DISTURBANCE WL PASS TO THE S OR N OF UPR MI. THERE HAS
BEEN CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AS
WELL...SO WL RELY ON A CONSENSUS APRCH FOR NOW. THE MODELS WHICH
SHOW A FARTHER S TRACK...NOTABLY THE 00Z ECMWF...INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SGNFT ACCUMULATING SN. THE 12Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF
ON THIS FCST AND SHOWS THE STRONGER SHRTWV PASSING THRU NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR MI. BUT H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -10C WL SUPPORT SOME
LES EVEN IF THERE IS LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

POOR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT OF KSAW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS AT KSAW WHERE LLWS MAY OCCUR.
ALSO...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER WI TODAY MAY ADVECT OVER KSAW
TONIGHT AS SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA...CAUSING CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR FRIDAY...GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LO PRES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL DEEPPEN AND TRACK E TO FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY SAT EVENING...DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. UNDER THE TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT WNW GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO
DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR SAT MORNING
THRU SAT EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A HI
PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT TO MOVE TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
ON SUN. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL DIMINISH THE GALES.
ANOTHER LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK E...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. AS
THE LO TRACKS NE TO JAMES BAY ON WED...ANOTHER W GALE IS LIKELY FOR
TUE INTO WED UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SW FLANK. A
WEAK HI PRES RIDGE WILL THEN DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WED. THE APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL
DIMINISH THE GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KAPX 241955
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION PROVIDES SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MORE DRIZZLE? ...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TO DROP TEMPERATURES LOWER TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE FORECAST IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MOISTURE EXTENDS TO THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST IS THE SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT...WHILE THE CLEARING LINE IN WISCONSIN IS BEGINNING TO HEAD
OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, MORE MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA, WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MOVES IN POST 04Z. ONCE THE NEXT BATCH IS IN HERE,
AND WITH THE TIGHTER SFC GRADIENT, WILL EXPECT THAT THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO HEAD BACK UP OR AT THE VERY LEAST HOLD STEADY AS WE
HEAD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE FORMATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS,
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
HEIGHT, SO WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WHILE AREAS OF LIGHT FOG
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT
LOOKS LIKE AROUND 12Z THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH,
SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND STRONG JET ENERGY
FLOWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SPLIT ACROSS EASTERN
NOAM...WITH AN OLD CUT-OFF FEATURE LIFTING NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SPLIT SHORT WAVE ENERGY (THAT BROUGHT US
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT) NOW EXITING THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE
PIECE MOVING UP THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER MOVING DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE SE ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...NARROW RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS SPANS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND LOOKING TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN STILL
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH/NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WAS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A RECONFIGURATION WITH A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR AND LARGER
SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM AND THE GREAT
LAKES...RAISING THE POSSIBILITIES FOR OUR FIRST SNOW OF THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...RECENT EURO/GFS/GEM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF
THIS IDEA...SOMEWHAT...AND INSTEAD HANG ON TO EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGHING WHILE MAINTAINING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. COLDER AIR DOES STILL MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH OUT OF THE ARCTIC
NEXT WEEK...BUT TRENDS SUGGEST MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
FOR THE GREAT LAKES WHILE CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...AS GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE
EXHIBITED A FAIR AMOUNT OF INCONSISTENCY.

IN THE NEARER TERM...BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL TAKE A DIP DOWN THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE STATE BY EVENING. VERY LITTLE ORGANIZED PRECIP
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONGER FORCING WILL RESIDE WELL
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST IS FAIRLY DRY. ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER MOISTURE/
FORCING...ALTHOUGH THERE VERY WELL COULD BE SPOTTY RETURNS/SPRINKLES
ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...NEXT BATCH OF
STRATUS ALREADY ACROSS IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET
DRAWN UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH DRIZZLE
AGAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING
FORECAST ALREADY PAINTS THAT SCENARIO.

BEHIND THE FRONT...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
MIXING AND DRYING THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE BREEZY NW WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN A DECENT DAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH WITH NW FLOW AND COOL LOW
LEVEL TEMPS...AM A BIT CONCERNED WE SEE A BIT MORE LAKE RESPONSE/
LAKE CLOUDS. THEN...A COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
DEEPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE
CONUS DURING THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME BRINGING A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR FOR MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES START TO
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM
ADVECTION FORCING PART OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SFC/UPPER LOW AND
FRONT ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION.

GRADUALLY DRIES OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH COLDER
AIR OVER THE LAKES (-2C TO -4C H8 TEMPS) AND DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW/
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...W/NW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...PERHAPS A BREAK/DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY. BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...EXPECT A BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR DOWN THROUGH CANADA AND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. JUST HOW MUCH COLD
AIR GETS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDS NOW KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR UP THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT COLDER NONETHELESS BY HALLOWEEN WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WORDING IN EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING IFR CIGS WEST OF
I-75 IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF I-75. THERE ARE SOME THIN SPOTS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE TREND AND THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THEN THE THIN SPOTS IN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE THIN SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST, AND
MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TO PRODUCE MORE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH, THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE SFC AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE IN NW LOWER IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS
AFTER 06Z, AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT HEIGHTS (3
TO 5 FEET) BY SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
EVENTUALLY, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
LAKE HURON AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AREA FROM THE MACKINAC
BRIDGE TO NORTH POINT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THE
WAVES SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 241955
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION PROVIDES SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MORE DRIZZLE? ...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TO DROP TEMPERATURES LOWER TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE FORECAST IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MOISTURE EXTENDS TO THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST IS THE SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT...WHILE THE CLEARING LINE IN WISCONSIN IS BEGINNING TO HEAD
OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, MORE MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA, WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MOVES IN POST 04Z. ONCE THE NEXT BATCH IS IN HERE,
AND WITH THE TIGHTER SFC GRADIENT, WILL EXPECT THAT THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO HEAD BACK UP OR AT THE VERY LEAST HOLD STEADY AS WE
HEAD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE FORMATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS,
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
HEIGHT, SO WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WHILE AREAS OF LIGHT FOG
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT
LOOKS LIKE AROUND 12Z THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH,
SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND STRONG JET ENERGY
FLOWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SPLIT ACROSS EASTERN
NOAM...WITH AN OLD CUT-OFF FEATURE LIFTING NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SPLIT SHORT WAVE ENERGY (THAT BROUGHT US
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT) NOW EXITING THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE
PIECE MOVING UP THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER MOVING DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE SE ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...NARROW RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS SPANS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND LOOKING TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN STILL
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH/NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WAS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A RECONFIGURATION WITH A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR AND LARGER
SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM AND THE GREAT
LAKES...RAISING THE POSSIBILITIES FOR OUR FIRST SNOW OF THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...RECENT EURO/GFS/GEM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF
THIS IDEA...SOMEWHAT...AND INSTEAD HANG ON TO EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGHING WHILE MAINTAINING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. COLDER AIR DOES STILL MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH OUT OF THE ARCTIC
NEXT WEEK...BUT TRENDS SUGGEST MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
FOR THE GREAT LAKES WHILE CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...AS GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE
EXHIBITED A FAIR AMOUNT OF INCONSISTENCY.

IN THE NEARER TERM...BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL TAKE A DIP DOWN THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE STATE BY EVENING. VERY LITTLE ORGANIZED PRECIP
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONGER FORCING WILL RESIDE WELL
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST IS FAIRLY DRY. ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER MOISTURE/
FORCING...ALTHOUGH THERE VERY WELL COULD BE SPOTTY RETURNS/SPRINKLES
ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...NEXT BATCH OF
STRATUS ALREADY ACROSS IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET
DRAWN UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH DRIZZLE
AGAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING
FORECAST ALREADY PAINTS THAT SCENARIO.

BEHIND THE FRONT...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
MIXING AND DRYING THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE BREEZY NW WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN A DECENT DAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH WITH NW FLOW AND COOL LOW
LEVEL TEMPS...AM A BIT CONCERNED WE SEE A BIT MORE LAKE RESPONSE/
LAKE CLOUDS. THEN...A COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
DEEPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE
CONUS DURING THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME BRINGING A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR FOR MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES START TO
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM
ADVECTION FORCING PART OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SFC/UPPER LOW AND
FRONT ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION.

GRADUALLY DRIES OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH COLDER
AIR OVER THE LAKES (-2C TO -4C H8 TEMPS) AND DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW/
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...W/NW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...PERHAPS A BREAK/DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY. BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...EXPECT A BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR DOWN THROUGH CANADA AND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. JUST HOW MUCH COLD
AIR GETS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDS NOW KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR UP THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT COLDER NONETHELESS BY HALLOWEEN WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WORDING IN EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING IFR CIGS WEST OF
I-75 IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF I-75. THERE ARE SOME THIN SPOTS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE TREND AND THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THEN THE THIN SPOTS IN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE THIN SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST, AND
MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TO PRODUCE MORE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH, THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE SFC AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE IN NW LOWER IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS
AFTER 06Z, AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT HEIGHTS (3
TO 5 FEET) BY SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
EVENTUALLY, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
LAKE HURON AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AREA FROM THE MACKINAC
BRIDGE TO NORTH POINT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THE
WAVES SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KDTX 241940
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT

THE TREND OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS UNDER A FRAGMENTED STRATO-CU DECK
CONTINUES TODAY. SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME SPOTTY CLEARING IN THE CLOUD FIELD...AND THESE WILL BE THE
AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE
TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ADD TO THE DEPTH OF A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS H85 TEMPS UP FROM
5 TO 10C IN 12 HOURS. EXPECTING A VERY WARM NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
AS THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT QUITE CROSS INTO THE CWA BY 12Z. WENT
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINS...BUT COULD EVEN SEE 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER IF OVERCAST CONDITIONS PERSIST ALL EVENING.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS
CHANCE WILL BE MITIGATED BY WINDS AROUND 5KT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT AND RADIATE WILL HOLD THE BEST CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPING FOG...AND THAT CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-69 AT
THIS POINT. MODEL 925MB MOISTURE IS QUITE ROBUST TONIGHT...SO THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDY/WARM/FOGLESS CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z. DEPTH OF MOISTURE MAY ALSO ADD A NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED
BY THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ATTENDENT TO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX INVADING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS DEPICT THIS WELL WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY IMPINGING DOWN INTO AND BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE HURON. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FORECAST ANALYSES SHOW A FAVORABLE
STRUCTURE SUPPORTIVE OF WAA ASCENT FROM ROUGHLY 9-16Z SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WARM/MOIST THETA E WASH. THERE IS A GOOD INITIAL
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPPED BY VERY STRONG AND ACTIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE IS NOISY AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON A
DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT. SATURATION IS GOING TO BE RAZOR THIN IN
AND AROUND A POTENTIAL THIN UNSTABLE POCKET BETWEEN 925-900MB. THROW
IN THE MODEL TRYING TO MAINTAIN SOME NOISY AND SPURIOUS CONVECTIVE
SHREDS...AND WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON EDT. AT MINIMUM THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE SOME
VIRGA ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR. IF ANY PRECIPITATION WERE TO
MEASURE...LOOKING AT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO MAX. TIME OF YEAR REQUIRES
ADDITIONAL ATTENTION TO CLOUDS. THERE IS A GOOD TRAPPING OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION STRUCTURE WITH SOME
HINTS THAT SATURATION WILL ALSO EXIST WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED METERS OF
THE STABLE LAYER. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE AND THE
INHERITED FORECAST TO GO SLUGGISH WITH THE EXIT OF CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THAT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN CLOUDS
UNTIL AS LATE AS 4 PM...WITH A RAPID CLEARING TREND THEREAFTER.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO CLEAR SEMICH BETWEEN 15-21Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW OF 10-20 MPH WILL HELP THE
MECHANICAL MIXING PROCESS IN WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO
FALL FROM 8-9C SATURDAY...DOWN TO 3-5C FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHICH GIVES NO SHOT AT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LEAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAKING INTO THE AREA. NOT REALLY BAD THOUGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER...PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CHECKING IN RIGHT AT AVERAGE.

MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SE MI BEGINNING MONDAY. WET WEATHER
LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...WITH COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH COLD AIR
POSSIBLY BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE HURON. IT IS
BEHIND THIS DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL POSITION ITSELF. A SHIFT IN
PLACEMENT TO THE NORTH WOULD LEAD TO RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED
CONDITIONS. WILL FORGO THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BUT DID INCREASE FORECASTED WINDGUSTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 30
KNOT RANGE. STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ESTABLISHED
NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1242 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS PAINT A PICTURE OF BROKEN STRATO-
CU STEADILY MOVING TOWARD THE TAF CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FRACTURE AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BROKEN CIGS TO HOVER IN THE
3-5KFT RANGE BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING DEADENS THE
THREAT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONGER THREAT FOR STRATUS AND BR TO
REACH MVFR LEVELS EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
  HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....CB/DE
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....MM


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 241927
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS IN TONIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. MORE RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST. CLOUD TRENDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST
FOCUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT HAS HELD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE BREAKS ARE OPENING UP...AND WE
EXPECT THESE TO EXPAND AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
MO RIVER AS OF 19Z. THERE IS LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S FRONT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER JET SUPPORT BOTH STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WEAK LL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WORKING ON A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PCPN TONIGHT OR
SAT MORNING.

THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT...AND
SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA BY ABOUT 20Z OR SO. SHORTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE LOWER CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS SHOULD
SNEAK INTO THE 60S AS BEST CAA DOES NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL SAT NIGHT.
WE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN THROUGH SUN EVENING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
ON SUN NIGHT. THE STRONG SYSTEM OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL
OPEN UP A BIT AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN A WARM FRONT TO OUR SW AND
DRIVE IT IN HERE LATE SUN NIGHT. A DECENT SURGE OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW. THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED LI/S GOING NEGATIVE OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THIS PERIOD IS ONE OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST ON HALLOWEEN. A STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN WE GET A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY TO HAVE A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT IN THE THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

THE REMNANTS OF EXTRATROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT PACIFIC
TROPICAL STORM ANA NOW LOCATED WELL NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MERGES WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEM  MOVING ON SHORE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TYPICALLY THE MODELS UNDERPLAY THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS SO I
WOULD IMAGINE WHAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE WILL BE STRONGER AND SLOWER
THEN THE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THAT FAVORS THE LOWER ECMWF SO I
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ALSO THERE IS
DECENT INSTABILITY (850 LI NEGATIVE) AND THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40
KNOTS AT 12Z NEAR SBN INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KNOTS BY DTW BY TUESDAY
EVENING. WHEN WE ADD THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 100 KNOT 300 MB JET TO
THE PICTURE AND NEAR NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH... I HAVE TO BELIEVE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE TUESDAY.  I PUT LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS.

THAT SYSTEM TAPS SOME COLD AIR SO WE WOULD GET SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THE REAL ISSUE IS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HERE WE
HAVE 130 TO 140 KNOT JET DIVING INTO THE ALREADY CREATED EASTERN
TROUGH. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GIVEN THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA... I AM THINKING THAT SYSTEM WILL BE FARTHER WEST AND
DEEPER SO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BE BIGGER AND THERE WILL BE MORE
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WEATHER BY FAR FOR THIS SEASON SO
FAR. I DID NOT PUT SNOW IN THE GRIDS YET BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SNOW STARTS SHOWING UP THE GRIDS FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ONLY TO
REDEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE IFR CIGS NORTH AND WEST
OF MKG (OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...LAKE MICHIGAN... AND NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS IT SEEMS THE CLEARING IS WORKING NORTHWARD OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THAT TREND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
950 TO 850 MB RH FORECAST WHICH ALSO SHOWS CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. SO THAT IS WHAT I DID WITH THE
TAF FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. THE NAMDNG5...WHICH I HAVE
NOTED DOES VERY NICELY WITH FORECASTING FOG AND FOR THAT MATTER
SO DOES THE RAP13...BOTH SHOW NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA GOING DOWN IN
FOG BY 09Z. THE PROBLEM THERE THOUGH IS THERE IS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THAT WOULD SUGGEST TO ME A STRATUS
DECK IS MORE LIKELY. SO MY TAFS SHOW CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN I BRING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT FOR
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS BY THEN IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT COMING THROUGH. WE
WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. IT IS LOOKING LIKELY
WE WILL SEE WINDS AND WAVES HIT CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE
COMING DOWN ON SUN.

IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MON AND REMAIN UP
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AT
THAT TIME ALSO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ARE STARTING OUT AROUND AVERAGE WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER WE HAVE
HAD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL AT LEAST SUN
NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. EACH OF THESE
RAIN EVENTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH ONLY A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH EACH EVENT. THESE AMOUNTS SPREAD OUT OVER
THE WEEK WILL NOT CAUSE ANY MAJOR RISES ON THE AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KMQT 241923
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG THAT COVERED MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W
TO E. EXPECT THE FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES OVER FAR
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES TO THE NE...BUT WITH MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR NERN
LUCE COUNTY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PATH. ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAINLY OVER THE ERN/NERN CWA.
HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
SPREADING FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI WILL ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE BEING SWEPT SE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NOW FOR THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
TIGHT BETWEEN THE 987MB SFC LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND THE 1020MB RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND IA...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
WNW 925MB WINDS OF 38-45KTS ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI AT
18Z...STRENGTHENING TO 40-50KTS AT 00Z SUN. IF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT /SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE 0C AT 850MB/ AND THERE
WAS MORE OF AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WINDS WOULD LIKELY GUST TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLE NERN UPPER MI
NEAR THE SHORE ON SAT. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECT GUSTS TO 40MPH MAX IN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS. DO THINK WINDS JUSTIFY A
GALE WATCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LONG
TERM FORECASTER TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON LAKE PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

POOR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT OF KSAW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS AT KSAW WHERE LLWS MAY OCCUR.
ALSO...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER WI TODAY MAY ADVECT OVER KSAW
TONIGHT AS SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA...CAUSING CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR FRIDAY...GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 30KTS. WITH LIMITED COLD
AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALES. BUT HIGHER
PLATFORMS SHOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND GUST TO 35KT
GALES. THESE STRONGER WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AND THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DIMINISH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT (TO 25KTS)
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KGRR 241809
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
209 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES EACH DAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM AIR. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO REAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUDS.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS LOCATED UPSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE CLOUDS MAY BE TRYING TO EXIT THE EASTERN
CWA LATE IN THE DAY WITH CLEARING IN THE WEST...BUT THINKING WE WILL
LIKELY HANG ON TO CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FOR A TIME...BEFORE MOISTURE STREAMS
BACK IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SO...IN
GENERAL A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE FRONT ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DRY. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IF ANY VERTICAL MOTION DOWN
OUR WAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.  MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS PUMPS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.  A WARM
FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-96.  I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
WITH THIS FRONT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON H8 TEMPS SURGE TO +14C WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OF 65 TO 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...
POSSIBLY HIGHER...DEPENDENT ON IF ANY SUN COMES THROUGH BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT APPEARS TO
COME THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING NOW.  WE SHOULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.  THEN...IF THE TIMING  VERIFIES WE
SHOULD SEE FALLING TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H8 TEMPS CRASH.  IN
FACT THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH H8
TEMPS PLUNGING TO AROUND -1C BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE LOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE COLDER TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE THEN.

THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS THE LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGH EXITS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ONLY TO
REDEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE IFR CIGS NORTH AND WEST
OF MKG (OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...LAKE MICHIGAN... AND NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS IT SEEMS THE CLEARING IS WORKING NORTHWARD OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THAT TREND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
950 TO 850 MB RH FORECAST WHICH ALSO SHOWS CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. SO THAT IS WHAT I DID WITH THE
TAF FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. THE NAMDNG5...WHICH I HAVE
NOTED DOES VERY NICELY WITH FORECASTING FOG AND FOR THAT MATTER
SO DOES THE RAP13...BOTH SHOW NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA GOING DOWN IN
FOG BY 09Z. THE PROBLEM THERE THOUGH IS THERE IS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THAT WOULD SUGGEST TO ME A STRATUS
DECK IS MORE LIKELY. SO MY TAFS SHOW CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN I BRING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN CHECK. SOUTH
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT TIME FRAME
OF CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHERE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RAMP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WAVES
SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF
ON A PERIOD 3 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEED THOUGH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LIMITED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW RIVER
LEVELS AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOLID RAIN
COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES WHICH
IS ABOVE THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
EXPECTED THOUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED WITHOUT ISSUE GIVEN
LOW FLOWS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 241749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION IS GOING TO GET A CLOSE TO REACHING THE HIGHS
DEPSITE THE CLOUD COVER. THERE ARE SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
OVERCAST, WHICH MAY YIELD SOME BREAKS, BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF
THE CLEARING WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THEN AFTER
THAT THE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS THE
CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY STUBBORN. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME THIN
SPOTS TO THE WEST IN WISCONSIN. WILL LEAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOW, BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS MIX OUT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UP SLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING IFR CIGS WEST OF
I-75 IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF I-75. THERE ARE SOME THIN SPOTS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE TREND AND THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THEN THE THIN SPOTS IN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE THIN SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST, AND
MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TO PRODUCE MORE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH, THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KMQT 241745
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
145 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CREATE PRIMARILY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COVER NEARLY ALL OF WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...AS SEEN IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 11-3.9 SATELLITE. THE LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING LOW NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH THE MOISTURE UP INTO UPPER MICHIGAN
AND THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT ARE SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE IN THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AIDED BY
A POCKET OF DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH DRYING SHOWN ON THE MODELS ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL MIXING TAKES HOLD.
EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FIRST
AND THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESS INLAND AND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THUS...BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCATTERED CIRRUS PUSHING EAST OUT
OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S BASED OFF MIXING TO 925MB TEMPS AROUND 11C.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES) WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL PUSH
EAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
SINCE THE BEST/DEEP MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR...ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. DID CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY...DUE
TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING.
FINALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DON/T
THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH FOG SO JUST TRIED TO SHOW A PERIOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

POOR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT OF KSAW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS AT KSAW WHERE LLWS MAY OCCUR.
ALSO...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER WI TODAY MAY ADVECT OVER KSAW
TONIGHT AS SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA...CAUSING CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR FRIDAY...GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 30KTS. WITH LIMITED COLD
AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALES. BUT HIGHER
PLATFORMS SHOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND GUST TO 35KT
GALES. THESE STRONGER WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AND THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DIMINISH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT (TO 25KTS)
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KAPX 241736
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
136 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS THE
CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY STUBBORN. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME THIN
SPOTS TO THE WEST IN WISCONSIN. WILL LEAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOW, BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS MIX OUT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UP SLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING IFR CIGS WEST OF
I-75 IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF I-75. THERE ARE SOME THIN SPOTS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE TREND AND THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THEN THE THIN SPOTS IN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE THIN SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST, AND
MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TO PRODUCE MORE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH, THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KDTX 241642
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1242 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS PAINT A PICTURE OF BROEKN STRATO-
CU STEADILY MOVING TOWARD THE TAF CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FRACTURE AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BROKEN CIGS TO HOVER IN THE
3-5KFT RANGE BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING DEADENS THE
THREAT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONGER THREAT FOR STRATUS AND BR TO
REACH MVFR LEVELS EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
  HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE BATCH OF ELGONATED SOUTH-NORTH MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 0.75
INCHES) IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS UPPER WAVE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 925 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE TO 10 C...PER BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM. THIS SUGGESTS
TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...LOWER 60S/AROUND 60...BUT THERE IS SOME
HESITATION WITH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AROUND.

NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RACES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WITH 1000-
500 MB MEAN RH REMAINING LESS THAN 60 PERCENT...PLANNING ON
MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...PLANNING
ON HOLDING MINS IN THE MID 40S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRUNG OUT DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER...WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND NOT
MUCH ELSE. DESPITE THE MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. EXPECTATIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY.

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY...QUIET WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION ON
MONDAY.

A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED
TOTAL TOTALS AND K-INDEX VALUES BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE NWP
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE GREATER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS RIDGING KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MM
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 241402
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1002 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS THE
CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY STUBBORN. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME THIN
SPOTS TO THE WEST IN WISCONSIN. WILL LEAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOW, BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS MIX OUT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UP SLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MVFR MOST OF THE DAY...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE CONTINUING TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN. THERE IS
ALSO AN INVERSION PRESENT WHICH WILL SERVE TO LOCK THIS LOW CLOUD
IN PLACE...LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME DEEPER DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR DOES TRY AND MAKE IT INTO THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EVENING.
THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...AS MINIMAL MIXING TODAY AND
SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING OFF
THE NIGHT (JUST SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS)...WILL REDEVELOP
SHALLOW STRATUS/FOG AND POSSIBLY EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY...STARTING TO SWITCH OUT OF THE
SW/WSW AND INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 241402
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1002 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS THE
CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY STUBBORN. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME THIN
SPOTS TO THE WEST IN WISCONSIN. WILL LEAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOW, BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS MIX OUT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UP SLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MVFR MOST OF THE DAY...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE CONTINUING TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN. THERE IS
ALSO AN INVERSION PRESENT WHICH WILL SERVE TO LOCK THIS LOW CLOUD
IN PLACE...LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME DEEPER DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR DOES TRY AND MAKE IT INTO THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EVENING.
THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...AS MINIMAL MIXING TODAY AND
SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING OFF
THE NIGHT (JUST SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS)...WILL REDEVELOP
SHALLOW STRATUS/FOG AND POSSIBLY EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY...STARTING TO SWITCH OUT OF THE
SW/WSW AND INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KMQT 241139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CREATE PRIMARILY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COVER NEARLY ALL OF WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...AS SEEN IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 11-3.9 SATELLITE. THE LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING LOW NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH THE MOISTURE UP INTO UPPER MICHIGAN
AND THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT ARE SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE IN THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AIDED BY
A POCKET OF DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH DRYING SHOWN ON THE MODELS ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL MIXING TAKES HOLD.
EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FIRST
AND THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESS INLAND AND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THUS...BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCATTERED CIRRUS PUSHING EAST OUT
OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S BASED OFF MIXING TO 925MB TEMPS AROUND 11C.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES) WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL PUSH
EAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
SINCE THE BEST/DEEP MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR...ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. DID CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY...DUE
TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING.
FINALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DON/T
THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH FOG SO JUST TRIED TO SHOW A PERIOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY HAS LED TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING TAKES HOLD
TODAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...FIRST
AT AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW (KIWD IS ALREADY
OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG) AND THEN PROGRESSING INLAND. ONCE
THE LOW CLOUDS COME TO AN END...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO COME TO AN END
UPSTREAM IN WISCONSIN...THINK THEY WILL BUILD BACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND AFFECT KSAW AGAIN TONIGHT. PUT A FEW
HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BRINGS AND END TO THE CLOUDS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT A BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 30KTS. WITH LIMITED COLD
AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALES. BUT HIGHER
PLATFORMS SHOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND GUST TO 35KT
GALES. THESE STRONGER WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AND THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DIMINISH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT (TO 25KTS)
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KGRR 241135
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
735 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES EACH DAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM AIR. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO REAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUDS.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS LOCATED UPSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE CLOUDS MAY BE TRYING TO EXIT THE EASTERN
CWA LATE IN THE DAY WITH CLEARING IN THE WEST...BUT THINKING WE WILL
LIKELY HANG ON TO CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FOR A TIME...BEFORE MOISTURE STREAMS
BACK IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SO...IN
GENERAL A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE FRONT ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DRY. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IF ANY VERTICAL MOTION DOWN
OUR WAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.  MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS PUMPS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.  A WARM
FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-96.  I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
WITH THIS FRONT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON H8 TEMPS SURGE TO +14C WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OF 65 TO 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...
POSSIBLY HIGHER...DEPENDENT ON IF ANY SUN COMES THROUGH BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT APPEARS TO
COME THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING NOW.  WE SHOULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.  THEN...IF THE TIMING  VERIFIES WE
SHOULD SEE FALLING TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H8 TEMPS CRASH.  IN
FACT THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH H8
TEMPS PLUNGING TO AROUND -1C BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE LOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE COLDER TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE THEN.

THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS THE LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGH EXITS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY FROM CEILINGS TODAY AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED UPSTREAM ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND THEY WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING IFR AT THIS POINT...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR KAZO...KGRR AND KMKG. TO THE EAST...AT KLAN AND KJXN
NOT THINKING THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST AND
KEPT THEM VFR. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING...FROM 20Z TO 00Z. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FOR A TIME AFTER 00Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING BACK IN LATE
TONIGHT...AFTER 09Z OR SO. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN CHECK. SOUTH
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT TIME FRAME
OF CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHERE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RAMP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WAVES
SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF
ON A PERIOD 3 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEED THOUGH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LIMITED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW RIVER
LEVELS AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOLID RAIN
COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES WHICH
IS ABOVE THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
EXPECTED THOUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED WITHOUT ISSUE GIVEN
LOW FLOWS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KDTX 241052
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (VFR) AROUND TODAY AS BATCH OF
MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LATE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT LOW CHANCE OF MVFR DECK
DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNSET. A RENEWED PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPPORTING LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CEILINGS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY INTO
  TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE BATCH OF ELGONATED SOUTH-NORTH MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 0.75
INCHES) IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS UPPER WAVE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 925 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE TO 10 C...PER BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM. THIS SUGGESTS
TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...LOWER 60S/AROUND 60...BUT THERE IS SOME
HESITATION WITH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AROUND.

NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RACES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WITH 1000-
500 MB MEAN RH REMAINING LESS THAN 60 PERCENT...PLANNING ON
MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...PLANNING
ON HOLDING MINS IN THE MID 40S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRUNG OUT DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER...WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND NOT
MUCH ELSE. DESPITE THE MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. EXPECTATIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY.

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY...QUIET WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION ON
MONDAY.

A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED
TOTAL TOTALS AND K-INDEX VALUES BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE NWP
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE GREATER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS RIDGING KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 241052
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (VFR) AROUND TODAY AS BATCH OF
MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LATE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT LOW CHANCE OF MVFR DECK
DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNSET. A RENEWED PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPPORTING LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CEILINGS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY INTO
  TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE BATCH OF ELGONATED SOUTH-NORTH MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 0.75
INCHES) IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS UPPER WAVE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 925 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE TO 10 C...PER BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM. THIS SUGGESTS
TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...LOWER 60S/AROUND 60...BUT THERE IS SOME
HESITATION WITH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AROUND.

NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RACES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WITH 1000-
500 MB MEAN RH REMAINING LESS THAN 60 PERCENT...PLANNING ON
MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...PLANNING
ON HOLDING MINS IN THE MID 40S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRUNG OUT DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER...WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND NOT
MUCH ELSE. DESPITE THE MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. EXPECTATIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY.

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY...QUIET WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION ON
MONDAY.

A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED
TOTAL TOTALS AND K-INDEX VALUES BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE NWP
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE GREATER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS RIDGING KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 241052
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (VFR) AROUND TODAY AS BATCH OF
MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LATE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT LOW CHANCE OF MVFR DECK
DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNSET. A RENEWED PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPPORTING LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CEILINGS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY INTO
  TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE BATCH OF ELGONATED SOUTH-NORTH MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 0.75
INCHES) IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS UPPER WAVE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 925 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE TO 10 C...PER BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM. THIS SUGGESTS
TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...LOWER 60S/AROUND 60...BUT THERE IS SOME
HESITATION WITH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AROUND.

NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RACES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WITH 1000-
500 MB MEAN RH REMAINING LESS THAN 60 PERCENT...PLANNING ON
MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...PLANNING
ON HOLDING MINS IN THE MID 40S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRUNG OUT DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER...WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND NOT
MUCH ELSE. DESPITE THE MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. EXPECTATIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY.

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY...QUIET WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION ON
MONDAY.

A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED
TOTAL TOTALS AND K-INDEX VALUES BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE NWP
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE GREATER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS RIDGING KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 241052
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (VFR) AROUND TODAY AS BATCH OF
MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LATE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT LOW CHANCE OF MVFR DECK
DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNSET. A RENEWED PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPPORTING LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CEILINGS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY INTO
  TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE BATCH OF ELGONATED SOUTH-NORTH MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 0.75
INCHES) IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS UPPER WAVE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 925 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE TO 10 C...PER BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM. THIS SUGGESTS
TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...LOWER 60S/AROUND 60...BUT THERE IS SOME
HESITATION WITH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AROUND.

NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RACES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WITH 1000-
500 MB MEAN RH REMAINING LESS THAN 60 PERCENT...PLANNING ON
MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...PLANNING
ON HOLDING MINS IN THE MID 40S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRUNG OUT DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER...WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND NOT
MUCH ELSE. DESPITE THE MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. EXPECTATIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY.

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY...QUIET WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION ON
MONDAY.

A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED
TOTAL TOTALS AND K-INDEX VALUES BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE NWP
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE GREATER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS RIDGING KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 241041
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
641 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MVFR MOST OF THE DAY...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE CONTINUING TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN. THERE IS
ALSO AN INVERSION PRESENT WHICH WILL SERVE TO LOCK THIS LOW CLOUD
IN PLACE...LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME DEEPER DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR DOES TRY AND MAKE IT INTO THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EVENING.
THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...AS MINIMAL MIXING TODAY AND
SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING OFF
THE NIGHT (JUST SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS)...WILL REDEVELOP
SHALLOW STRATUS/FOG AND POSSIBLY EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY...STARTING TO SWITCH OUT OF THE
SW/WSW AND INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KMQT 240745
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CREATE PRIMARILY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COVER NEARLY ALL OF WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...AS SEEN IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 11-3.9 SATELLITE. THE LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING LOW NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH THE MOISTURE UP INTO UPPER MICHIGAN
AND THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT ARE SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE IN THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AIDED BY
A POCKET OF DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH DRYING SHOWN ON THE MODELS ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL MIXING TAKES HOLD.
EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FIRST
AND THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESS INLAND AND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THUS...BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCATTERED CIRRUS PUSHING EAST OUT
OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S BASED OFF MIXING TO 925MB TEMPS AROUND 11C.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES) WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL PUSH
EAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
SINCE THE BEST/DEEP MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR...ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. DID CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY...DUE
TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING.
FINALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DON/T
THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH FOG SO JUST TRIED TO SHOW A PERIOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. IT THUS
APPEARS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE S TO SW WINDS...IT`S POSSIBLE
KIWD COULD BREAK OUT TO VFR AT TIMES AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEARING FROM THE DOWNSLOPING VERY NEAR KIWD. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED
TO WAIT UNTIL 2-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE FOR LOW CIGS/FOG TO CLEAR OUT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 30KTS. WITH LIMITED COLD
AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALES. BUT HIGHER
PLATFORMS SHOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND GUST TO 35KT
GALES. THESE STRONGER WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AND THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DIMINISH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT (TO 25KTS)
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KDTX 240733
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE BATCH OF ELGONATED SOUTH-NORTH MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 0.75
INCHES) IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS UPPER WAVE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 925 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE TO 10 C...PER BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM. THIS SUGGESTS
TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...LOWER 60S/AROUND 60...BUT THERE IS SOME
HESITATION WITH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AROUND.

NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RACES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WITH 1000-
500 MB MEAN RH REMAINING LESS THAN 60 PERCENT...PLANNING ON
MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...PLANNING
ON HOLDING MINS IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRUNG OUT DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER...WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND NOT
MUCH ELSE. DESPITE THE MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. EXPECTATIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY.

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY...QUIET WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION ON
MONDAY.

A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED
TOTAL TOTALS AND K-INDEX VALUES BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE NWP
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE GREATER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS RIDGING KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST
AND A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND THE ABUNDANCE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SE MI...NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND DROP IN CEILINGS SHOULD BE A
VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY NOT TRACKING
INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FOR DTW...GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND BASED ON
THE 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...CLOUDS BASES MAY HOLD ABOVE 5000 FT RIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE THIS
  MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 240730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES EACH DAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM AIR. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO REAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUDS.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS LOCATED UPSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE CLOUDS MAY BE TRYING TO EXIT THE EASTERN
CWA LATE IN THE DAY WITH CLEARING IN THE WEST...BUT THINKING WE WILL
LIKELY HANG ON TO CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FOR A TIME...BEFORE MOISTURE STREAMS
BACK IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SO...IN
GENERAL A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE FRONT ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DRY. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IF ANY VERTICAL MOTION DOWN
OUR WAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.  MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS PUMPS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.  A WARM
FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-96.  I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
WITH THIS FRONT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON H8 TEMPS SURGE TO +14C WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OF 65 TO 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...
POSSIBLY HIGHER...DEPENDENT ON IF ANY SUN COMES THROUGH BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT APPEARS TO
COME THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING NOW.  WE SHOULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.  THEN...IF THE TIMING  VERIFIES WE
SHOULD SEE FALLING TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H8 TEMPS CRASH.  IN
FACT THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH H8
TEMPS PLUNGING TO AROUND -1C BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE LOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE COLDER TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE THEN.

THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS THE LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGH EXITS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. VERY
LITTLE PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THIS SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST 09-10Z AND PUSH FURTHER INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY IFR IN FAR WESTERN
MI AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
WAS NOT PUT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD MIX OUT/LIFT BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH VFR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN CHECK. SOUTH
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT TIME FRAME
OF CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHERE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RAMP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WAVES
SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF
ON A PERIOD 3 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEED THOUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LIMITED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW RIVER
LEVELS AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOLID RAIN
COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES WHICH
IS ABOVE THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
EXPECTED THOUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED WITHOUT ISSUE GIVEN
LOW FLOWS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE










000
FXUS63 KAPX 240705
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
305 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING
WILL BE MORE STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT
MBL/TVC/PLN OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD NOT PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST
AT TIMES. SOME -DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. APN WILL BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF
MVFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KMQT 240656
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. IT THUS
APPEARS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE S TO SW WINDS...IT`S POSSIBLE
KIWD COULD BREAK OUT TO VFR AT TIMES AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEARING FROM THE DOWNSLOPING VERY NEAR KIWD. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED
TO WAIT UNTIL 2-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE FOR LOW CIGS/FOG TO CLEAR OUT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 240534
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRI NIGHT...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG 160 KNOTS
300 MB JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. SINCE THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE INFLOW AND THE STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

SAT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...BREEZY WNW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROGS SUGGEST THAT A DECENT PORTION OF
THE 40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS WILL CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MIXING TO 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 3C-4C
SUPPORTS MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUN...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 TO 55.

MON-TUE...MODELS REMAINED IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGING A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES MON
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE. THERE WERE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THE PATTERN FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...PER GFS/ECMWF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SHOWALTER INDICES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWAT TO
NEAR 1.25 INCH (250 PCT OF NORMAL).

WED...COLDER AIR MOVING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
LAKE ENHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW TO NW
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OUT QUICKLY.

THU...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FAVOR POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NRN LAKES GFS/GEFS/ECMWF WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE RAIN OR POSSIBLE SNOW(ECMWF). HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THESE DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. IT THUS
APPEARS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE S TO SW WINDS...IT`S POSSIBLE
KIWD COULD BREAK OUT TO VFR AT TIMES AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEARING FROM THE DOWNSLOPING VERY NEAR KIWD. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED
TO WAIT UNTIL 2-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE FOR LOW CIGS/FOG TO CLEAR OUT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 240519
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
119 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. WILL CARRY
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NW CWFA
INCLUDING LUDINGTON THROUGH 06Z PER LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. AFTER 06Z WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NRN CWFA AS THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE
HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE SRN CWFA DRY OVERNIGHT WHERE DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVAIL AND LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT TO MAINLY JUST A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL MUCH MORE
OVERNIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER NOW MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TOO WARM OR TOO COLD. THE
OTHER OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME
GULF MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BORDER
AND GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A
DEEP UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A
DECENT GULF INFLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF
THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE
WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT
SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING THE MON TO WED TIME
FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. VERY
LITTLE PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THIS SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST 09-10Z AND PUSH FURTHER INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY IFR IN FAR WESTERN
MI AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
WAS NOT PUT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD MIX OUT/LIFT BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH VFR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KAPX 240359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUASI-WARM FRONT ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MI...WITH A CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVANCING
SLOWLY NE-WARD. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50F
WEST OF LAKE MI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO OUTRUN
THIS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...CONTRIBUTING TO RADAR RETURNS BECOMING
LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH SCT SHRA IN WESTERN SECTIONS DIMINISHING TO
SPRINKLES OR LESS BY THE TIME IT REACHES NE LOWER/FAR EASTERN
UPPER MI.

MEANWHILE...THE RELATIVELY SOUPY AIRMASS TO THE WEST HAS A
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD MASS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST DRIZZLE
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW/N CENTRAL
LOWER. HAVE REMOVED DZ FROM NE LOWER NEAR LAKE HURON...MOISTURE
JUST TAKES TOO LONG TO GET THERE AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED DRYING AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL INHIBIT DZ.

IN THE MEANTIME...NE LOWER IS STILL MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS HAVE
PLUNGED TO NEAR FREEZING. READINGS WON/T GET THE CHANCE TO DROP
TOO MUCH FURTHER BEFORE SOME TATTERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STABILIZES
AND EVENTUALLY BOOSTS TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING
WILL BE MORE STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT
MBL/TVC/PLN OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD NOT PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST
AT TIMES. SOME -DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. APN WILL BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF
MVFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 240359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUASI-WARM FRONT ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MI...WITH A CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVANCING
SLOWLY NE-WARD. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50F
WEST OF LAKE MI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO OUTRUN
THIS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...CONTRIBUTING TO RADAR RETURNS BECOMING
LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH SCT SHRA IN WESTERN SECTIONS DIMINISHING TO
SPRINKLES OR LESS BY THE TIME IT REACHES NE LOWER/FAR EASTERN
UPPER MI.

MEANWHILE...THE RELATIVELY SOUPY AIRMASS TO THE WEST HAS A
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD MASS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST DRIZZLE
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW/N CENTRAL
LOWER. HAVE REMOVED DZ FROM NE LOWER NEAR LAKE HURON...MOISTURE
JUST TAKES TOO LONG TO GET THERE AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED DRYING AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL INHIBIT DZ.

IN THE MEANTIME...NE LOWER IS STILL MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS HAVE
PLUNGED TO NEAR FREEZING. READINGS WON/T GET THE CHANCE TO DROP
TOO MUCH FURTHER BEFORE SOME TATTERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STABILIZES
AND EVENTUALLY BOOSTS TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING
WILL BE MORE STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT
MBL/TVC/PLN OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD NOT PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST
AT TIMES. SOME -DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. APN WILL BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF
MVFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KDTX 240354
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1154 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST
AND A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND THE ABUNDANCE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SE MI...NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND DROP IN CEILINGS SHOULD BE A
VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY NOT TRACKING
INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FOR DTW...GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND BASED ON
THE 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...CLOUDS BASES MAY HOLD ABOVE 5000 FT RIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE THIS
  MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1004 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATE...

THE UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE TOO FAR
INTO SE MI IN LIGHT OF THE SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW BLANKETING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MORE PROLONGED CLEARING THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB/
WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 240354
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1154 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST
AND A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND THE ABUNDANCE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SE MI...NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND DROP IN CEILINGS SHOULD BE A
VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY NOT TRACKING
INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FOR DTW...GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND BASED ON
THE 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...CLOUDS BASES MAY HOLD ABOVE 5000 FT RIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE THIS
  MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1004 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATE...

THE UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE TOO FAR
INTO SE MI IN LIGHT OF THE SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW BLANKETING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MORE PROLONGED CLEARING THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB/
WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 240205
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. WILL CARRY
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NW CWFA
INCLUDING LUDINGTON THROUGH 06Z PER LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. AFTER 06Z WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NRN CWFA AS THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE
HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE SRN CWFA DRY OVERNIGHT WHERE DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVAIL AND LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT TO MAINLY JUST A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL MUCH MORE
OVERNIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER NOW MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TOO WARM OR TOO COLD. THE
OTHER OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME
GULF MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BORDER
AND GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A
DEEP UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A
DECENT GULF INFLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF
THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE
WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT
SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING THE MON TO WED TIME
FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING BUT WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LESS TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT SINCE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME LOWER CIGS WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT COULD IMPACT MKG AND
POSSIBLY GRR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN GRR. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE CIGS FALLING TO 3000-4000 FT BY 12Z FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO MOSTLY VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS CIGS OF 3000-4000 FT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LK MI EARLY THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT
MKG BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS THEY MOVE EAST SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 240205
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. WILL CARRY
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NW CWFA
INCLUDING LUDINGTON THROUGH 06Z PER LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. AFTER 06Z WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NRN CWFA AS THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE
HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE SRN CWFA DRY OVERNIGHT WHERE DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVAIL AND LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT TO MAINLY JUST A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL MUCH MORE
OVERNIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER NOW MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TOO WARM OR TOO COLD. THE
OTHER OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME
GULF MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BORDER
AND GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A
DEEP UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A
DECENT GULF INFLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF
THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE
WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT
SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING THE MON TO WED TIME
FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING BUT WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LESS TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT SINCE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME LOWER CIGS WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT COULD IMPACT MKG AND
POSSIBLY GRR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN GRR. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE CIGS FALLING TO 3000-4000 FT BY 12Z FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO MOSTLY VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS CIGS OF 3000-4000 FT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LK MI EARLY THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT
MKG BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS THEY MOVE EAST SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 240205
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. WILL CARRY
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NW CWFA
INCLUDING LUDINGTON THROUGH 06Z PER LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. AFTER 06Z WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NRN CWFA AS THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE
HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE SRN CWFA DRY OVERNIGHT WHERE DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVAIL AND LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT TO MAINLY JUST A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL MUCH MORE
OVERNIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER NOW MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TOO WARM OR TOO COLD. THE
OTHER OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME
GULF MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BORDER
AND GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A
DEEP UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A
DECENT GULF INFLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF
THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE
WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT
SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING THE MON TO WED TIME
FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING BUT WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LESS TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT SINCE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME LOWER CIGS WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT COULD IMPACT MKG AND
POSSIBLY GRR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN GRR. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE CIGS FALLING TO 3000-4000 FT BY 12Z FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO MOSTLY VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS CIGS OF 3000-4000 FT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LK MI EARLY THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT
MKG BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS THEY MOVE EAST SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 240205
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. WILL CARRY
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NW CWFA
INCLUDING LUDINGTON THROUGH 06Z PER LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. AFTER 06Z WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NRN CWFA AS THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE
HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE SRN CWFA DRY OVERNIGHT WHERE DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVAIL AND LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT TO MAINLY JUST A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL MUCH MORE
OVERNIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER NOW MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TOO WARM OR TOO COLD. THE
OTHER OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME
GULF MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BORDER
AND GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A
DEEP UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A
DECENT GULF INFLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF
THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE
WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT
SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING THE MON TO WED TIME
FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING BUT WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LESS TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT SINCE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME LOWER CIGS WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT COULD IMPACT MKG AND
POSSIBLY GRR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN GRR. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE CIGS FALLING TO 3000-4000 FT BY 12Z FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO MOSTLY VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS CIGS OF 3000-4000 FT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LK MI EARLY THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT
MKG BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS THEY MOVE EAST SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KDTX 240204
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1004 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

THE UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE TOO FAR
INTO SE MI IN LIGHT OF THE SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW BLANKETING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MORE PROLONGED CLEARING THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB/
WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 701 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MI WILL
MAINTAIN CEILINGS BELOW 12K FT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE SFC
TROUGH NOW PUSHING INTO LAKE MI WILL WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO LOWER
MI TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GREATLY DIMINISH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. AN INCREASE IN LOWER BASED CLOUDS /MAINLY
IN THE 2500 TO 5000 FT RANGE/ ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO
THE TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND PERSIST OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 240204
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1004 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

THE UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE TOO FAR
INTO SE MI IN LIGHT OF THE SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW BLANKETING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MORE PROLONGED CLEARING THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB/
WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 701 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MI WILL
MAINTAIN CEILINGS BELOW 12K FT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE SFC
TROUGH NOW PUSHING INTO LAKE MI WILL WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO LOWER
MI TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GREATLY DIMINISH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. AN INCREASE IN LOWER BASED CLOUDS /MAINLY
IN THE 2500 TO 5000 FT RANGE/ ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO
THE TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND PERSIST OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 240200
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUASI-WARM FRONT ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MI...WITH A CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVANCING
SLOWLY NE-WARD. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50F
WEST OF LAKE MI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO OUTRUN
THIS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...CONTRIBUTING TO RADAR RETURNS BECOMING
LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH SCT SHRA IN WESTERN SECTIONS DIMINISHING TO
SPRINKLES OR LESS BY THE TIME IT REACHES NE LOWER/FAR EASTERN
UPPER MI.

MEANWHILE...THE RELATIVELY SOUPY AIRMASS TO THE WEST HAS A
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD MASS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST DRIZZLE
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW/N CENTRAL
LOWER. HAVE REMOVED DZ FROM NE LOWER NEAR LAKE HURON...MOISTURE
JUST TAKES TOO LONG TO GET THERE AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED DRYING AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL INHIBIT DZ.

IN THE MEANTIME...NE LOWER IS STILL MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS HAVE
PLUNGED TO NEAR FREEZING. READINGS WON/T GET THE CHANCE TO DROP
TOO MUCH FURTHER BEFORE SOME TATTERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STABILIZES
AND EVENTUALLY BOOSTS TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE
STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT MBL/TVC/PLN
OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST AT TIMES. SOME
-DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. APN WILL
BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF MVFR. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 240200
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUASI-WARM FRONT ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MI...WITH A CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVANCING
SLOWLY NE-WARD. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50F
WEST OF LAKE MI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO OUTRUN
THIS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...CONTRIBUTING TO RADAR RETURNS BECOMING
LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH SCT SHRA IN WESTERN SECTIONS DIMINISHING TO
SPRINKLES OR LESS BY THE TIME IT REACHES NE LOWER/FAR EASTERN
UPPER MI.

MEANWHILE...THE RELATIVELY SOUPY AIRMASS TO THE WEST HAS A
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD MASS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST DRIZZLE
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW/N CENTRAL
LOWER. HAVE REMOVED DZ FROM NE LOWER NEAR LAKE HURON...MOISTURE
JUST TAKES TOO LONG TO GET THERE AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED DRYING AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL INHIBIT DZ.

IN THE MEANTIME...NE LOWER IS STILL MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS HAVE
PLUNGED TO NEAR FREEZING. READINGS WON/T GET THE CHANCE TO DROP
TOO MUCH FURTHER BEFORE SOME TATTERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STABILIZES
AND EVENTUALLY BOOSTS TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE
STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT MBL/TVC/PLN
OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST AT TIMES. SOME
-DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. APN WILL
BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF MVFR. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 232357
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TOO WARM OR TOO COLD. THE
OTHER OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME
GULF MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BORDER
AND GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A
DEEP UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A
DECENT GULF INFLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF
THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE
WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT
SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING THE MON TO WED TIME
FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING BUT WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LESS TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT SINCE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME LOWER CIGS WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT COULD IMPACT MKG AND
POSSIBLY GRR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN GRR. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE CIGS FALLING TO 3000-4000 FT BY 12Z FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO MOSTLY VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS CIGS OF 3000-4000 FT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LK MI EARLY THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT
MKG BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS THEY MOVE EAST SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KMQT 232352
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRI NIGHT...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG 160 KNOTS
300 MB JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. SINCE THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE INFLOW AND THE STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

SAT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...BREEZY WNW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROGS SUGGEST THAT A DECENT PORTION OF
THE 40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS WILL CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MIXING TO 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 3C-4C
SUPPORTS MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUN...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 TO 55.

MON-TUE...MODELS REMAINED IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGING A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES MON
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE. THERE WERE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THE PATTERN FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...PER GFS/ECMWF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SHOWALTER INDICES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWAT TO
NEAR 1.25 INCH (250 PCT OF NORMAL).

WED...COLDER AIR MOVING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
LAKE ENHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW TO NW
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OUT QUICKLY.

THU...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FAVOR POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NRN LAKES GFS/GEFS/ECMWF WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE RAIN OR POSSIBLE SNOW(ECMWF). HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THESE DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT. WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE W...KIWD SHOULD IMPROVE
FIRST WITH IFR CIGS LIFTING TO LOW MVFR THIS EVENING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TO VFR AROUND 05Z. KCMX WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND...JUST DELAYED A COUPLE OF HRS. HOWEVER...AT BOTH KIWD/KCMX...
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOW CIGS COULD PERSIST THRU THE
NIGHT...OR AFTER CLEARING OCCURS...FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE. AT
KSAW...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIFR NIGHT IS IN THE OFFING BEGINNING
LATE THIS EVENING IF NOT SOONER...GIVEN WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS
NOTED UPSTREAM IN NCNTRL WI. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS FRI...BUT ONLY AFTER EARLY MORNING LIFR AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KAPX 232332
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
732 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE
STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT MBL/TVC/PLN
OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST AT TIMES. SOME
-DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. APN WILL
BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF MVFR. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KDTX 232301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MI WILL
MAINTAIN CEILINGS BELOW 12K FT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE SFC
TROUGH NOW PUSHING INTO LAKE MI WILL WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO LOWER
MI TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GREATLY DIMINISH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. AN INCREASE IN LOWER BASED CLOUDS /MAINLY
IN THE 2500 TO 5000 FT RANGE/ ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO
THE TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND PERSIST OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 232045
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
445 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRI NIGHT...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG 160 KNOTS
300 MB JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. SINCE THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE INFLOW AND THE STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

SAT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...BREEZY WNW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROGS SUGGEST THAT A DECENT PORTION OF
THE 40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS WILL CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MIXING TO 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 3C-4C
SUPPORTS MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUN...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 TO 55.

MON-TUE...MODELS REMAINED IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGING A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES MON
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE. THERE WERE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THE PATTERN FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...PER GFS/ECMWF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SHOWALTER INDICES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWAT TO
NEAR 1.25 INCH (250 PCT OF NORMAL).

WED...COLDER AIR MOVING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
LAKE ENHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW TO NW
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OUT QUICKLY.

THU...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FAVOR POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NRN LAKES GFS/GEFS/ECMWF WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE RAIN OR POSSIBLE SNOW(ECMWF). HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THESE DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AT IWD...THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATER
MINIMUMS AT CMX AND SAW. AS THE RAIN CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT SAW...BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS.
CMX MAY ALSO SEE FOG...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE SO LEFT FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KDTX 231952
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1240 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE MBS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MIX
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR SKY FOLLOWED BY THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND THEN A SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARD MVFR BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MICHIGAN TODAY WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SPRINKLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...OR AT LEAST SOME EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR...UNTIL
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES TOWARD NOON FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 231952
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1240 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE MBS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MIX
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR SKY FOLLOWED BY THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND THEN A SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARD MVFR BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MICHIGAN TODAY WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SPRINKLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...OR AT LEAST SOME EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR...UNTIL
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES TOWARD NOON FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 231943
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND STRATUS ROAMING THE AREA...

SFC RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD HAS LED TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHALLOW SFC GROUND FOG AND
STRATUS FOR MUCH OF NE LOWER...WHICH IS GONE FROM APN...BUT STILL
IN THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY AND
SHALLOW STRATUS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THAT. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT HAPPENS TO BE NEAR/AT THE
AIRPORTS...WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND
LOTS OF SUN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NW LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEEPEN TO THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES...THEN ULTIMATELY SUB 1KFT CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AOB 10KTS...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTH/CALM TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 231943
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND STRATUS ROAMING THE AREA...

SFC RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD HAS LED TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHALLOW SFC GROUND FOG AND
STRATUS FOR MUCH OF NE LOWER...WHICH IS GONE FROM APN...BUT STILL
IN THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY AND
SHALLOW STRATUS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THAT. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT HAPPENS TO BE NEAR/AT THE
AIRPORTS...WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND
LOTS OF SUN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NW LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEEPEN TO THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES...THEN ULTIMATELY SUB 1KFT CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AOB 10KTS...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTH/CALM TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KMQT 231934
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AT IWD...THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATER
MINIMUMS AT CMX AND SAW. AS THE RAIN CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT SAW...BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS.
CMX MAY ALSO SEE FOG...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE SO LEFT FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 231934
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AT IWD...THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATER
MINIMUMS AT CMX AND SAW. AS THE RAIN CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT SAW...BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS.
CMX MAY ALSO SEE FOG...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE SO LEFT FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 231924
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TO WARM OR TO COLD.  THE OTHER
OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME GULF
MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BOARDER AND
GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF THE
SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A DEEP
UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A DECENT GULF INFLOW
AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE
HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE
WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE
DURING THE MON TO WED TIME FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT AND ALL TAF SITES
ARE VFR. I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND BRINGS IN AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH IT. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY A RAIN AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM... I AM THINKING THE RAIN AREA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TAF SITES. I DID PUT VCSH
AT MKG SINCE IT WOULD SEEM THAT WOULD BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVE IN THEY WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE SO I ALLOWED THE LOW
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 231924
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TO WARM OR TO COLD.  THE OTHER
OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME GULF
MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BOARDER AND
GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF THE
SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A DEEP
UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A DECENT GULF INFLOW
AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE
HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE
WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE
DURING THE MON TO WED TIME FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT AND ALL TAF SITES
ARE VFR. I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND BRINGS IN AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH IT. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY A RAIN AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM... I AM THINKING THE RAIN AREA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TAF SITES. I DID PUT VCSH
AT MKG SINCE IT WOULD SEEM THAT WOULD BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVE IN THEY WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE SO I ALLOWED THE LOW
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KMQT 231747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SEVERAL ITEMS OF NOTE THIS MORNING...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. HEADING FROM EAST TO WEST...A DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BE LIMITED
AND KEPT LOWS FROM BRING AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. STILL...HAVE SEEN
SOME LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF
THAT AREA. IN THE CENTRAL U.P. STRATUS AND FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED
AND IS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF IRON...MARQUETTE...AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT AND GENERALLY BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 6 MILES. EXPECT THESE
LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL FOG TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
GOES CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1.1KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE DISSIPATION
2.5-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE IN A NORMAL RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLIGHT HYBRID...IT MATCHES SIMILAR DISSIPATION
TIME AS YESTERDAY AND USED THAT IDEA FOR THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING (MATCHES MOST MODELS FOR TIMING).

OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THERE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS TIED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP
850-700MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS
THIS GRADIENT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE SECONDARY
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
AND 500MB SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN MINNESOTA) WILL BECOME
CO-LOCATED WITH THE THETA-E GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. THE
SECOND STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA) WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVES WILL MISS THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GO ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WILL HOW TO HANDLE
THE WORDING FOR TODAY. THINK THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE OFF/ON
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...THEN MORE STEADY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE
SURFACE-850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THUS...WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS (50 PERCENT) FOLLOWING THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH
FROM WEST TO CENTRAL TODAY WITH THE BEST FOCUS OF LIKELY/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P.

NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
TRACK...BUT THE MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT ON THEM WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS THE TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE SEPARATE FURTHER
AND WEAKEN THE ELONGATED ENERGY BETWEEN THEM. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH TAKES HOLD. IN
FACT...FAR WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MAY EVEN TRY TO SCATTER OR CLEAR
OUT JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND PROVIDE THEM WITH THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY IN
THE U.P. TO SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. IF IT TIMES OUT...THEY
WOULD CATCH THE TAIL END OF THE ECLIPSE AS THE SUN IS SETTING
(MAXIMUM OCCURS AT 445PM CDT). THIS CLEARING WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN TO LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG
OVER THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN CWA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AT IWD...THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATER
MINIMUMS AT CMX AND SAW. AS THE RAIN CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT SAW...BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS.
CMX MAY ALSO SEE FOG...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE SO LEFT FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY (WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. A ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 231747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SEVERAL ITEMS OF NOTE THIS MORNING...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. HEADING FROM EAST TO WEST...A DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BE LIMITED
AND KEPT LOWS FROM BRING AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. STILL...HAVE SEEN
SOME LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF
THAT AREA. IN THE CENTRAL U.P. STRATUS AND FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED
AND IS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF IRON...MARQUETTE...AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT AND GENERALLY BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 6 MILES. EXPECT THESE
LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL FOG TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
GOES CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1.1KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE DISSIPATION
2.5-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE IN A NORMAL RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLIGHT HYBRID...IT MATCHES SIMILAR DISSIPATION
TIME AS YESTERDAY AND USED THAT IDEA FOR THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING (MATCHES MOST MODELS FOR TIMING).

OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THERE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS TIED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP
850-700MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS
THIS GRADIENT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE SECONDARY
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
AND 500MB SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN MINNESOTA) WILL BECOME
CO-LOCATED WITH THE THETA-E GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. THE
SECOND STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA) WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVES WILL MISS THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GO ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WILL HOW TO HANDLE
THE WORDING FOR TODAY. THINK THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE OFF/ON
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...THEN MORE STEADY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE
SURFACE-850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THUS...WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS (50 PERCENT) FOLLOWING THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH
FROM WEST TO CENTRAL TODAY WITH THE BEST FOCUS OF LIKELY/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P.

NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
TRACK...BUT THE MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT ON THEM WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS THE TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE SEPARATE FURTHER
AND WEAKEN THE ELONGATED ENERGY BETWEEN THEM. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH TAKES HOLD. IN
FACT...FAR WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MAY EVEN TRY TO SCATTER OR CLEAR
OUT JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND PROVIDE THEM WITH THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY IN
THE U.P. TO SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. IF IT TIMES OUT...THEY
WOULD CATCH THE TAIL END OF THE ECLIPSE AS THE SUN IS SETTING
(MAXIMUM OCCURS AT 445PM CDT). THIS CLEARING WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN TO LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG
OVER THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN CWA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AT IWD...THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATER
MINIMUMS AT CMX AND SAW. AS THE RAIN CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT SAW...BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS.
CMX MAY ALSO SEE FOG...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE SO LEFT FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY (WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. A ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KGRR 231721
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
121 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW OBSERVATIONS AT THE AIRPORTS
STILL INDICATING VSBYS AROUND 1/4SM...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY IMPROVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. AN EXAMPLE IS KGRR
STILL REPORTING 3/4SM AT 1416Z...HOWEVER CONDITIONS AROUND MOST OF THE
AIRPORT HAVE IMPROVED MUCH MORE AT THE SAME TIME.

WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE DAY TODAY. MOST OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMING IN
AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE LAKESHORE. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS IN WI MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR PCPN TO MAKE IT TO THE AREA. ALSO...A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE WILL ERODE THE PCPN AS IT TRIES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA..

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION.  THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME.  ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.  IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT AND ALL TAF SITES
ARE VFR. I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND BRINGS IN AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH IT. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY A RAIN AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM... I AM THINKING THE RAIN AREA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TAF SITES. I DID PUT VCSH
AT MKG SINCE IT WOULD SEEM THAT WOULD BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVE IN THEY WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE SO I ALLOWED THE LOW
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KDTX 231640
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1240 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE MBS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MIX
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR SKY FOLLOWED BY THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND THEN A SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARD MVFR BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MICHIGAN TODAY WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SPRINKLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...OR AT LEAST SOME EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR...UNTIL
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES TOWARD NOON FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

1024 MB SURFACE HIGH TUCKED BENEATH A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL DEFINE CONDITIONS LOCALLY TODAY.  SOME PESKY POCKETS OF
SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AN EXISTING DEEP DRY LAYER AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THEN ENSURING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INTEGRATING ROUGHLY 2-3 DEGREES OF WARMING
THROUGH THE 925-850 MB LAYER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR
BOTH THE ADDED INSOLATION AND GENERAL INCREASE IN THICKNESSES VIA
RISING HEIGHTS.  THIS WILL CENTER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.

SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED TO A STRONG WAVE/CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL
PINCH INTO THE EXISTING RIDGING...SHEARING ACROSS SE MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH THE BETTER FORCING TIED TO THE PARENT
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK CVA AS THE TRAILING SHEAR AXIS EJECTS THROUGH.  A LIMITED
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE WORKING AGAINST A STOUT DRY
LAYER HELD IN PLACE BY PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING.  THIS POINTS TO
SIMPLY SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES EMERGING VERY LATE WITHIN AN EXPANDING FIELD OF VIRGA.
MODEL EVIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF A DEFINED POP
MENTION AT THIS TIME.  LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH JUST VIRGA OR
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO. GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS H850 TEMPS RISE BACK UP
NEAR 7C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

BIGGER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE UPPER ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS
ENERGY ACROSS ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING HAS SPED
UP A LITTLE. CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLY DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE (12-18Z
PER GFS/NAM)...HOWEVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE EURO HAVE SHOWN A
TIMING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS
DRY GIVEN LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE TIMING WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY. AN EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MEAN THAT MAX TEMPS ARE
REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY (STILL FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S)...AND IF
OTHER MODELS COME AROUND TO THE EURO SOLUTION...TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
SHOULD BE QUITE HEALTHY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LAPSE
RATES...AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN A CORE OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. SURFACE GUSTS THEREFORE LOOK TO
ACHIEVE 35 TO EVEN 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
CONTINUING THE DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER OVER THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S HOWEVER ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BEFORE MODERATING SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE STILL DIVIDED WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM EAST
OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS ON TUESDAY (HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AT 144 HOURS)...AND THE 12Z EURO BRINGING IT
ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY...KEEPING CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE...BEFORE FLIPPING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE WARMER
LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE
SURFACE...AND THESE GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS WE DRAW CLOSER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 231640
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1240 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE MBS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MIX
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR SKY FOLLOWED BY THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND THEN A SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARD MVFR BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MICHIGAN TODAY WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SPRINKLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...OR AT LEAST SOME EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR...UNTIL
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES TOWARD NOON FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

1024 MB SURFACE HIGH TUCKED BENEATH A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL DEFINE CONDITIONS LOCALLY TODAY.  SOME PESKY POCKETS OF
SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AN EXISTING DEEP DRY LAYER AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THEN ENSURING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INTEGRATING ROUGHLY 2-3 DEGREES OF WARMING
THROUGH THE 925-850 MB LAYER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR
BOTH THE ADDED INSOLATION AND GENERAL INCREASE IN THICKNESSES VIA
RISING HEIGHTS.  THIS WILL CENTER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.

SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED TO A STRONG WAVE/CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL
PINCH INTO THE EXISTING RIDGING...SHEARING ACROSS SE MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH THE BETTER FORCING TIED TO THE PARENT
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK CVA AS THE TRAILING SHEAR AXIS EJECTS THROUGH.  A LIMITED
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE WORKING AGAINST A STOUT DRY
LAYER HELD IN PLACE BY PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING.  THIS POINTS TO
SIMPLY SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES EMERGING VERY LATE WITHIN AN EXPANDING FIELD OF VIRGA.
MODEL EVIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF A DEFINED POP
MENTION AT THIS TIME.  LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH JUST VIRGA OR
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO. GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS H850 TEMPS RISE BACK UP
NEAR 7C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

BIGGER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE UPPER ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS
ENERGY ACROSS ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING HAS SPED
UP A LITTLE. CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLY DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE (12-18Z
PER GFS/NAM)...HOWEVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE EURO HAVE SHOWN A
TIMING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS
DRY GIVEN LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE TIMING WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY. AN EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MEAN THAT MAX TEMPS ARE
REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY (STILL FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S)...AND IF
OTHER MODELS COME AROUND TO THE EURO SOLUTION...TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
SHOULD BE QUITE HEALTHY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LAPSE
RATES...AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN A CORE OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. SURFACE GUSTS THEREFORE LOOK TO
ACHIEVE 35 TO EVEN 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
CONTINUING THE DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER OVER THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S HOWEVER ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BEFORE MODERATING SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE STILL DIVIDED WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM EAST
OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS ON TUESDAY (HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AT 144 HOURS)...AND THE 12Z EURO BRINGING IT
ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY...KEEPING CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE...BEFORE FLIPPING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE WARMER
LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE
SURFACE...AND THESE GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS WE DRAW CLOSER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 231559
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EXIT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VERY TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TODAY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOWER HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS
RATHER TOUGH AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW AS IT IS
TRAPPED BELOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. GENERAL TREND IS FOR
CONTINUED SLOW EROSION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAD TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO START. DID KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW AND ONLY SHALLOW MIXING
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...A CHILLY START FOR SURE...

IMPACTS: REDUCED VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD IS SHALLOWING OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH IS MAKING WAY TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WAS SEEN ACROSS
MN/IA/KS/NE WITH A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODEST -DIVQ WHICH
WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES. NOT MUCH LIQUID IN
THESE SHOWERS...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS WORKING INTO WHAT WAS A
VERY DRY AIR MASS. LATEST SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM DATA SUGGEST/SHOW
POTENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...EACH
SHOWING A CONGEALED AREA OF SHOWERS. THESE TWO WAVES ARE LIKELY
WORKING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...ONE EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE
NORTH...PER SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SHEARING OUT
WITH TIME.

OVER NRN MICHIGAN...THE DEEPEST OF DRY AIR IS OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH
THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS LED TO SOME
SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS MAINLY ONGOING ACROSS
NE LOWER...WHERE YESTERDAYS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A LINGERING
STRATUS DECK...SURPRISINGLY WELL INTO THE DAY YESTERDAY. THIS KEPT
SFC/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MIXING OUT...AND HENCE THE STRATUS/FOG.
SOME VISIBILITIES WERE DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE IN SPOTS. TEMPS
WERE AS COLD AS THE LOWER 20S IN THE LOWEST LYING AREAS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

NOTHING TO CRAZY IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT WE WILL
HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HEADING INTO THE REGION. THE
TWO SUGGESTED SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON
DIFFERENT TRACKS. ONE...LIFTING ENE INTO ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING...WHILE PUSHING INTO OUR VERY DRY AIR MASS. THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SORT OF COVERAGE AS WE SEE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM.
FORCING AND FCST BFR SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES COULD MOVE IN TOWARD EVENING IN NW LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER...AND THEN POSSIBLY INTO THE I75 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OR SO. BEHIND THAT...AND VERIFIED BY UPSTREAM SFC OBS...A
PERIOD OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL LEAVE SKIES
CLOUDY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE LIKELY...WHICH
WILL LAST FOR A BIT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ALL CLOUDY. PRIOR TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE LOWER
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THESE TEMPS HERE WILL CLIMB AFTER THAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWER LOWER 30S IN NE LOWER...TO
THE UPPER 30S AND AROUND 40F WEST OF I-75 (WHERE CLOUDS WILL ALREADY
BE BY THIS EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...WET WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: HOW DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE EAST COAST, NOW CUTTING OFF
FROM THE 500 MB FLOW. THIS IS WHAT LEADS TO THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

(10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB
FLOW SPLIT, WITH THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE STALLING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION SO THAT THERE IS STRONG
CHANCE THAT WE`LL HAVE PATCH DRIZZLE AT 12Z. IT LOOKS LIKE BY
SOUNDINGS THAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT. SO KEPT THE DRIZZLE IN
THROUGH 15Z, AND THEN WITH THE THINNING MOISTURE, STOP THE DRIZZLE
AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT UP WITH THE MIXING IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER STAYS NORTH OF THE
STRAITS, THIS LEAVES MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC FRONT AT 850 MB AND
BELOW A LITTLE THIN. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDED MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NE LOWER.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS PRETTY SMALL.
CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE, BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE SMALL CHANCE WE HAVE FOR NOW.

(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LE RAIN BY THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 0C TO -2C IF THE GFS IS RIGHT.
THEN TEMPERATURES WARM BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE DRY
WEATHER, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE INTO A CHILLY DAMP NIGHT IN NW LOWER
IF THE MODELS TREND MORE THIS WAY.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...(10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY AS THE SFC HIGH FORCES THE
MOISTURE EAST AGAIN AND ALLOWING THE 850 MB AND SFC TEMPERATURES TO
RISE. (10/27)MONDAY...THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
ONSET OF TH RAIN WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER, AND A FLATTER RIDGE
AT 500 MB. THE ECWMF IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED, SO THINK THAT IT
MAY BE ONTO THE RIGHT TRACK WITH THE SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN.
(10/28)TUESDAY...THE RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY NOW, BUT THE GFS
STILL WRAPS THE SFC LOW PRETTY TIGHT. AM BEGINNING TO WONDER IF THE
THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS WITH ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION IT FORMS, AND THE MUCH DEEPER LOW. THIS WOULD
ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
(10/29)WEDNESDAY...AGAIN BOTH MODELS HAVE RAIN FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND NOT SIDE WITH HOW WE
GET TO THIS POINT UNTIL THERE ARE FEW MORE RUNS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND STRATUS ROAMING THE AREA...

SFC RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD HAS LED TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHALLOW SFC GROUND FOG AND
STRATUS FOR MUCH OF NE LOWER...WHICH IS GONE FROM APN...BUT STILL
IN THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY AND
SHALLOW STRATUS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THAT. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT HAPPENS TO BE NEAR/AT THE
AIRPORTS...WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND
LOTS OF SUN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NW LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEEPEN TO THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES...THEN ULTIMATELY SUB 1KFT CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AOB 10KTS...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTH/CALM TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY THE WEEKEND...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A DECAYING SFC TROUGH ARRIVES TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THIS TIME...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT BRING
POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. COLD AIR POURING
IN SATURDAY VIA A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WNW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 231559
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EXIT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VERY TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TODAY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOWER HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS
RATHER TOUGH AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW AS IT IS
TRAPPED BELOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. GENERAL TREND IS FOR
CONTINUED SLOW EROSION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAD TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO START. DID KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW AND ONLY SHALLOW MIXING
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...A CHILLY START FOR SURE...

IMPACTS: REDUCED VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD IS SHALLOWING OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH IS MAKING WAY TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WAS SEEN ACROSS
MN/IA/KS/NE WITH A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODEST -DIVQ WHICH
WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES. NOT MUCH LIQUID IN
THESE SHOWERS...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS WORKING INTO WHAT WAS A
VERY DRY AIR MASS. LATEST SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM DATA SUGGEST/SHOW
POTENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...EACH
SHOWING A CONGEALED AREA OF SHOWERS. THESE TWO WAVES ARE LIKELY
WORKING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...ONE EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE
NORTH...PER SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SHEARING OUT
WITH TIME.

OVER NRN MICHIGAN...THE DEEPEST OF DRY AIR IS OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH
THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS LED TO SOME
SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS MAINLY ONGOING ACROSS
NE LOWER...WHERE YESTERDAYS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A LINGERING
STRATUS DECK...SURPRISINGLY WELL INTO THE DAY YESTERDAY. THIS KEPT
SFC/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MIXING OUT...AND HENCE THE STRATUS/FOG.
SOME VISIBILITIES WERE DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE IN SPOTS. TEMPS
WERE AS COLD AS THE LOWER 20S IN THE LOWEST LYING AREAS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

NOTHING TO CRAZY IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT WE WILL
HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HEADING INTO THE REGION. THE
TWO SUGGESTED SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON
DIFFERENT TRACKS. ONE...LIFTING ENE INTO ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING...WHILE PUSHING INTO OUR VERY DRY AIR MASS. THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SORT OF COVERAGE AS WE SEE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM.
FORCING AND FCST BFR SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES COULD MOVE IN TOWARD EVENING IN NW LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER...AND THEN POSSIBLY INTO THE I75 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OR SO. BEHIND THAT...AND VERIFIED BY UPSTREAM SFC OBS...A
PERIOD OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL LEAVE SKIES
CLOUDY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE LIKELY...WHICH
WILL LAST FOR A BIT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ALL CLOUDY. PRIOR TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE LOWER
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THESE TEMPS HERE WILL CLIMB AFTER THAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWER LOWER 30S IN NE LOWER...TO
THE UPPER 30S AND AROUND 40F WEST OF I-75 (WHERE CLOUDS WILL ALREADY
BE BY THIS EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...WET WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: HOW DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE EAST COAST, NOW CUTTING OFF
FROM THE 500 MB FLOW. THIS IS WHAT LEADS TO THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

(10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB
FLOW SPLIT, WITH THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE STALLING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION SO THAT THERE IS STRONG
CHANCE THAT WE`LL HAVE PATCH DRIZZLE AT 12Z. IT LOOKS LIKE BY
SOUNDINGS THAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT. SO KEPT THE DRIZZLE IN
THROUGH 15Z, AND THEN WITH THE THINNING MOISTURE, STOP THE DRIZZLE
AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT UP WITH THE MIXING IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER STAYS NORTH OF THE
STRAITS, THIS LEAVES MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC FRONT AT 850 MB AND
BELOW A LITTLE THIN. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDED MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NE LOWER.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS PRETTY SMALL.
CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE, BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE SMALL CHANCE WE HAVE FOR NOW.

(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LE RAIN BY THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 0C TO -2C IF THE GFS IS RIGHT.
THEN TEMPERATURES WARM BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE DRY
WEATHER, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE INTO A CHILLY DAMP NIGHT IN NW LOWER
IF THE MODELS TREND MORE THIS WAY.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...(10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY AS THE SFC HIGH FORCES THE
MOISTURE EAST AGAIN AND ALLOWING THE 850 MB AND SFC TEMPERATURES TO
RISE. (10/27)MONDAY...THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
ONSET OF TH RAIN WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER, AND A FLATTER RIDGE
AT 500 MB. THE ECWMF IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED, SO THINK THAT IT
MAY BE ONTO THE RIGHT TRACK WITH THE SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN.
(10/28)TUESDAY...THE RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY NOW, BUT THE GFS
STILL WRAPS THE SFC LOW PRETTY TIGHT. AM BEGINNING TO WONDER IF THE
THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS WITH ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION IT FORMS, AND THE MUCH DEEPER LOW. THIS WOULD
ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
(10/29)WEDNESDAY...AGAIN BOTH MODELS HAVE RAIN FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND NOT SIDE WITH HOW WE
GET TO THIS POINT UNTIL THERE ARE FEW MORE RUNS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND STRATUS ROAMING THE AREA...

SFC RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD HAS LED TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHALLOW SFC GROUND FOG AND
STRATUS FOR MUCH OF NE LOWER...WHICH IS GONE FROM APN...BUT STILL
IN THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY AND
SHALLOW STRATUS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THAT. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT HAPPENS TO BE NEAR/AT THE
AIRPORTS...WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND
LOTS OF SUN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NW LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEEPEN TO THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES...THEN ULTIMATELY SUB 1KFT CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AOB 10KTS...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTH/CALM TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY THE WEEKEND...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A DECAYING SFC TROUGH ARRIVES TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THIS TIME...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT BRING
POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. COLD AIR POURING
IN SATURDAY VIA A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WNW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KGRR 231419
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1019 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW OBSERVATIONS AT THE AIRPORTS
STILL INDICATING VSBYS AROUND 1/4SM...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY IMPROVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. AN EXAMPLE IS KGRR
STILL REPORTING 3/4SM AT 1416Z...HOWEVER CONDITIONS AROUND MOST OF THE
AIRPORT HAVE IMPROVED MUCH MORE AT THE SAME TIME.

WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE DAY TODAY. MOST OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMING IN
AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE LAKESHORE. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS IN WI MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR PCPN TO MAKE IT TO THE AREA. ALSO...A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE WILL ERODE THE PCPN AS IT TRIES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA..

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION.  THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME.  ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.  IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT VFR WEATHER IS
FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
CLOUDS LOWER TO BASES AROUND 5000FT AFTER DARK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO
SETTLE IN TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER WITH TIME.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 231135
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
735 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION.  THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME.  ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.  IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT VFR WEATHER IS
FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
CLOUDS LOWER TO BASES AROUND 5000FT AFTER DARK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO
SETTLE IN TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER WITH TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KMQT 231118
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
718 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SEVERAL ITEMS OF NOTE THIS MORNING...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. HEADING FROM EAST TO WEST...A DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BE LIMITED
AND KEPT LOWS FROM BRING AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. STILL...HAVE SEEN
SOME LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF
THAT AREA. IN THE CENTRAL U.P. STRATUS AND FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED
AND IS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF IRON...MARQUETTE...AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT AND GENERALLY BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 6 MILES. EXPECT THESE
LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL FOG TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
GOES CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1.1KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE DISSIPATION
2.5-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE IN A NORMAL RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLIGHT HYBRID...IT MATCHES SIMILAR DISSIPATION
TIME AS YESTERDAY AND USED THAT IDEA FOR THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING (MATCHES MOST MODELS FOR TIMING).

OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THERE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS TIED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP
850-700MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS
THIS GRADIENT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE SECONDARY
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
AND 500MB SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN MINNESOTA) WILL BECOME
CO-LOCATED WITH THE THETA-E GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. THE
SECOND STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA) WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVES WILL MISS THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GO ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WILL HOW TO HANDLE
THE WORDING FOR TODAY. THINK THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE OFF/ON
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...THEN MORE STEADY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE
SURFACE-850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THUS...WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS (50 PERCENT) FOLLOWING THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH
FROM WEST TO CENTRAL TODAY WITH THE BEST FOCUS OF LIKELY/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P.

NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
TRACK...BUT THE MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT ON THEM WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS THE TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE SEPARATE FURTHER
AND WEAKEN THE ELONGATED ENERGY BETWEEN THEM. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH TAKES HOLD. IN
FACT...FAR WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MAY EVEN TRY TO SCATTER OR CLEAR
OUT JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND PROVIDE THEM WITH THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY IN
THE U.P. TO SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. IF IT TIMES OUT...THEY
WOULD CATCH THE TAIL END OF THE ECLIPSE AS THE SUN IS SETTING
(MAXIMUM OCCURS AT 445PM CDT). THIS CLEARING WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN TO LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG
OVER THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN CWA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KSAW CONTINUES AND
EXPECT THAT TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. AM A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON IF/WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH...AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OF APPROACHING SHOWERS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE TO MIX
OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. WILL FOLLOW THE IDEAS FROM THE MODELS OF IT
STARTING TO MIX OUT AROUND NOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AND PERIOD...SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THEY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN TO APPROACH KIWD AND SHOULD
IMPACT THE SITE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THREE SITES AS THEY SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING...EXPECT A
GRADUAL CLEARING TO OCCUR AND THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG AT KCMX
AND ESPECIALLY KSAW. ONCE AGAIN...HAVE BROUGHT KSAW TO ALTERNATE
LANDING MINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY (WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. A ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KAPX 231048
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
648 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EXIT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...A CHILLY START FOR SURE...

IMPACTS: REDUCED VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD IS SHALLOWING OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH IS MAKING WAY TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WAS SEEN ACROSS
MN/IA/KS/NE WITH A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODEST -DIVQ WHICH
WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES. NOT MUCH LIQUID IN
THESE SHOWERS...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS WORKING INTO WHAT WAS A
VERY DRY AIR MASS. LATEST SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM DATA SUGGEST/SHOW
POTENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...EACH
SHOWING A CONGEALED AREA OF SHOWERS. THESE TWO WAVES ARE LIKELY
WORKING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...ONE EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE
NORTH...PER SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SHEARING OUT
WITH TIME.

OVER NRN MICHIGAN...THE DEEPEST OF DRY AIR IS OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH
THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS LED TO SOME
SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS MAINLY ONGOING ACROSS
NE LOWER...WHERE YESTERDAYS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A LINGERING
STRATUS DECK...SURPRISINGLY WELL INTO THE DAY YESTERDAY. THIS KEPT
SFC/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MIXING OUT...AND HENCE THE STRATUS/FOG.
SOME VISIBILITIES WERE DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE IN SPOTS. TEMPS
WERE AS COLD AS THE LOWER 20S IN THE LOWEST LYING AREAS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

NOTHING TO CRAZY IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT WE WILL
HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HEADING INTO THE REGION. THE
TWO SUGGESTED SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON
DIFFERENT TRACKS. ONE...LIFTING ENE INTO ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING...WHILE PUSHING INTO OUR VERY DRY AIR MASS. THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SORT OF COVERAGE AS WE SEE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM.
FORCING AND FCST BFR SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES COULD MOVE IN TOWARD EVENING IN NW LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER...AND THEN POSSIBLY INTO THE I75 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OR SO. BEHIND THAT...AND VERIFIED BY UPSTREAM SFC OBS...A
PERIOD OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL LEAVE SKIES
CLOUDY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE LIKELY...WHICH
WILL LAST FOR A BIT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ALL CLOUDY. PRIOR TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE LOWER
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THESE TEMPS HERE WILL CLIMB AFTER THAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWER LOWER 30S IN NE LOWER...TO
THE UPPER 30S AND AROUND 40F WEST OF I-75 (WHERE CLOUDS WILL ALREADY
BE BY THIS EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...WET WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: HOW DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE EAST COAST, NOW CUTTING OFF
FROM THE 500 MB FLOW. THIS IS WHAT LEADS TO THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

(10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB
FLOW SPLIT, WITH THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE STALLING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION SO THAT THERE IS STRONG
CHANCE THAT WE`LL HAVE PATCH DRIZZLE AT 12Z. IT LOOKS LIKE BY
SOUNDINGS THAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT. SO KEPT THE DRIZZLE IN
THROUGH 15Z, AND THEN WITH THE THINNING MOISTURE, STOP THE DRIZZLE
AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT UP WITH THE MIXING IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER STAYS NORTH OF THE
STRAITS, THIS LEAVES MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC FRONT AT 850 MB AND
BELOW A LITTLE THIN. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDED MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NE LOWER.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS PRETTY SMALL.
CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE, BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE SMALL CHANCE WE HAVE FOR NOW.

(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LE RAIN BY THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 0C TO -2C IF THE GFS IS RIGHT.
THEN TEMPERATURES WARM BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE DRY
WEATHER, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE INTO A CHILLY DAMP NIGHT IN NW LOWER
IF THE MODELS TREND MORE THIS WAY.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...(10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY AS THE SFC HIGH FORCES THE
MOISTURE EAST AGAIN AND ALLOWING THE 850 MB AND SFC TEMPERATURES TO
RISE. (10/27)MONDAY...THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
ONSET OF TH RAIN WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER, AND A FLATTER RIDGE
AT 500 MB. THE ECWMF IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED, SO THINK THAT IT
MAY BE ONTO THE RIGHT TRACK WITH THE SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN.
(10/28)TUESDAY...THE RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY NOW, BUT THE GFS
STILL WRAPS THE SFC LOW PRETTY TIGHT. AM BEGINNING TO WONDER IF THE
THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS WITH ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION IT FORMS, AND THE MUCH DEEPER LOW. THIS WOULD
ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
(10/29)WEDNESDAY...AGAIN BOTH MODELS HAVE RAIN FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND NOT SIDE WITH HOW WE
GET TO THIS POINT UNTIL THERE ARE FEW MORE RUNS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND STRATUS ROAMING THE AREA...

SFC RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD HAS LED TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHALLOW SFC GROUND FOG AND
STRATUS FOR MUCH OF NE LOWER...WHICH IS GONE FROM APN...BUT STILL
IN THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY AND
SHALLOW STRATUS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THAT. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT HAPPENS TO BE NEAR/AT THE
AIRPORTS...WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND
LOTS OF SUN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NW LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEEPEN TO THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES...THEN ULTIMATELY SUB 1KFT CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AOB 10KTS...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTH/CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY THE WEEKEND...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A DECAYING SFC TROUGH ARRIVES TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THIS TIME...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT BRING
POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. COLD AIR POURING
IN SATURDAY VIA A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WNW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KDTX 231039
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
639 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A STRETCH OF FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.  EXISTING SHALLOW FOG AT MBS/FNT
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TODAY...WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUD ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  A LIGHT/WEST WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

1024 MB SURFACE HIGH TUCKED BENEATH A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL DEFINE CONDITIONS LOCALLY TODAY.  SOME PESKY POCKETS OF
SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AN EXISTING DEEP DRY LAYER AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THEN ENSURING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INTEGRATING ROUGHLY 2-3 DEGREES OF WARMING
THROUGH THE 925-850 MB LAYER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR
BOTH THE ADDED INSOLATION AND GENERAL INCREASE IN THICKNESSES VIA
RISING HEIGHTS.  THIS WILL CENTER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.

SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED TO A STRONG WAVE/CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL
PINCH INTO THE EXISTING RIDGING...SHEARING ACROSS SE MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH THE BETTER FORCING TIED TO THE PARENT
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK CVA AS THE TRAILING SHEAR AXIS EJECTS THROUGH.  A LIMITED
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE WORKING AGAINST A STOUT DRY
LAYER HELD IN PLACE BY PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING.  THIS POINTS TO
SIMPLY SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES EMERGING VERY LATE WITHIN AN EXPANDING FIELD OF VIRGA.
MODEL EVIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF A DEFINED POP
MENTION AT THIS TIME.  LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH JUST VIRGA OR
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO. GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS H850 TEMPS RISE BACK UP
NEAR 7C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

BIGGER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE UPPER ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS
ENERGY ACROSS ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING HAS SPED
UP A LITTLE. CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLY DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE (12-18Z
PER GFS/NAM)...HOWEVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE EURO HAVE SHOWN A
TIMING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS
DRY GIVEN LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE TIMING WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY. AN EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MEAN THAT MAX TEMPS ARE
REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY (STILL FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S)...AND IF
OTHER MODELS COME AROUND TO THE EURO SOLUTION...TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
SHOULD BE QUITE HEALTHY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LAPSE
RATES...AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN A CORE OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. SURFACE GUSTS THEREFORE LOOK TO
ACHIEVE 35 TO EVEN 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
CONTINUING THE DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER OVER THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S HOWEVER ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BEFORE MODERATING SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE STILL DIVIDED WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM EAST
OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS ON TUESDAY (HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AT 144 HOURS)...AND THE 12Z EURO BRINGING IT
ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY...KEEPING CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE...BEFORE FLIPPING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE WARMER
LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE
SURFACE...AND THESE GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS WE DRAW CLOSER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 230945
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION.  THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME.  ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.  IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WIDE MIX OF CONDITIONS WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z...FROM VFR
TO IFR. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT THERE WERE PATCHES OF
STRATUS AROUND. ONE PATCH WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER...NEAR
Y70...WITH ANOTHER PATCH OVER NW OH. BOTH AREAS WERE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST.  THERE WAS ALSO PATCHES OF FOG AROUND WHICH SHOULD EXPAND
SOMEWHAT.

TRENDED THE TAFS MAINLY MVFR...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
IFR AROUND THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO DISSIPATE.

BY LATE THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SHOWERS WILL
MOVE IN...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOR WESTERN TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 230945
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION.  THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME.  ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.  IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WIDE MIX OF CONDITIONS WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z...FROM VFR
TO IFR. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT THERE WERE PATCHES OF
STRATUS AROUND. ONE PATCH WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER...NEAR
Y70...WITH ANOTHER PATCH OVER NW OH. BOTH AREAS WERE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST.  THERE WAS ALSO PATCHES OF FOG AROUND WHICH SHOULD EXPAND
SOMEWHAT.

TRENDED THE TAFS MAINLY MVFR...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
IFR AROUND THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO DISSIPATE.

BY LATE THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SHOWERS WILL
MOVE IN...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOR WESTERN TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KMQT 230811
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SEVERAL ITEMS OF NOTE THIS MORNING...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE SHROT
TERM FORECAST. HEADING FROM EAST TO WEST...A DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BE LIMITED
AND KEPT LOWS FROM BRING AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. STILL...HAVE SEEN
SOME LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF
THAT AREA. IN THE CENTRAL U.P. STRATUS AND FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED
AND IS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF IRON...MARQUETTE...AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT AND GENERALLY BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 6 MILES. EXPECT THESE
LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL FOG TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
GOES CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1.1KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE DISSIPATION
2.5-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE IN A NORMAL RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLIGHT HYBRID...IT MATCHES SIMILAR DISSIPATION
TIME AS YESTERDAY AND USED THAT IDEA FOR THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING (MATCHES MOST MODELS FOR TIMING).

OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THERE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS TIED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP
850-700MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS
THIS GRADIENT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE SECONDARY
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCATIED WITH THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
AND 500MB SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN MINNESOTA) WILL BECOME
COLOCATED WITH THE THETA-E GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. THE
SECOND STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA) WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVES WILL MISS THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GO ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WILL HOW TO HANDLE
THE WORDING FOR TODAY. THINK THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE OFF/ON
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...THEN MORE STEADY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE
SURFACE-850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THUS...WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS (50 PERCENT) FOLLOWING THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH
FROM WEST TO CENTRAL TODAY WITH THE BEST FOCUS OF LIKELY/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P.

NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
TRACK...BUT THE MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT ON THEM WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS THE TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE SEPARATE FURTHER
AND WEAKEN THE ELONGATED ENERGY BETWEEN THEM. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH TAKES HOLD. IN
FACT...FAR WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MAY EVEN TRY TO SCATTER OR CLEAR
OUT JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND PROVIDE THEM WITH THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY IN
THE U.P. TO SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. IF IT TIMES OUT...THEY
WOULD CATCH THE TAIL END OF THE ECLIPSE AS THE SUN IS SETTING
(MAXIMUM OCCURS AT 445PM CDT). THIS CLEARING WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN TO LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG
OVER THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN CWA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY (WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. A ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 230811
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SEVERAL ITEMS OF NOTE THIS MORNING...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE SHROT
TERM FORECAST. HEADING FROM EAST TO WEST...A DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BE LIMITED
AND KEPT LOWS FROM BRING AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. STILL...HAVE SEEN
SOME LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF
THAT AREA. IN THE CENTRAL U.P. STRATUS AND FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED
AND IS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF IRON...MARQUETTE...AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT AND GENERALLY BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 6 MILES. EXPECT THESE
LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL FOG TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
GOES CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1.1KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE DISSIPATION
2.5-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE IN A NORMAL RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLIGHT HYBRID...IT MATCHES SIMILAR DISSIPATION
TIME AS YESTERDAY AND USED THAT IDEA FOR THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING (MATCHES MOST MODELS FOR TIMING).

OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THERE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS TIED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP
850-700MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS
THIS GRADIENT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE SECONDARY
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCATIED WITH THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
AND 500MB SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN MINNESOTA) WILL BECOME
COLOCATED WITH THE THETA-E GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. THE
SECOND STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA) WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVES WILL MISS THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GO ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WILL HOW TO HANDLE
THE WORDING FOR TODAY. THINK THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE OFF/ON
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...THEN MORE STEADY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE
SURFACE-850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THUS...WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS (50 PERCENT) FOLLOWING THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH
FROM WEST TO CENTRAL TODAY WITH THE BEST FOCUS OF LIKELY/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P.

NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
TRACK...BUT THE MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT ON THEM WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS THE TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE SEPARATE FURTHER
AND WEAKEN THE ELONGATED ENERGY BETWEEN THEM. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH TAKES HOLD. IN
FACT...FAR WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MAY EVEN TRY TO SCATTER OR CLEAR
OUT JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND PROVIDE THEM WITH THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY IN
THE U.P. TO SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. IF IT TIMES OUT...THEY
WOULD CATCH THE TAIL END OF THE ECLIPSE AS THE SUN IS SETTING
(MAXIMUM OCCURS AT 445PM CDT). THIS CLEARING WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN TO LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG
OVER THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN CWA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY (WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. A ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KAPX 230755
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EXIT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...A CHILLY START FOR SURE...

IMPACTS: REDUCED VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD IS SHALLOWING OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH IS MAKING WAY TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WAS SEEN ACROSS
MN/IA/KS/NE WITH A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODEST -DIVQ WHICH
WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES. NOT MUCH LIQUID IN
THESE SHOWERS...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS WORKING INTO WHAT WAS A
VERY DRY AIR MASS. LATEST SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM DATA SUGGEST/SHOW
POTENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...EACH
SHOWING A CONGEALED AREA OF SHOWERS. THESE TWO WAVES ARE LIKELY
WORKING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...ONE EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE
NORTH...PER SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SHEARING OUT
WITH TIME.

OVER NRN MICHIGAN...THE DEEPEST OF DRY AIR IS OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH
THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS LED TO SOME
SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS MAINLY ONGOING ACROSS
NE LOWER...WHERE YESTERDAYS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A LINGERING
STRATUS DECK...SURPRISINGLY WELL INTO THE DAY YESTERDAY. THIS KEPT
SFC/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MIXING OUT...AND HENCE THE STRATUS/FOG.
SOME VISIBILITIES WERE DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE IN SPOTS. TEMPS
WERE AS COLD AS THE LOWER 20S IN THE LOWEST LYING AREAS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

NOTHING TO CRAZY IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT WE WILL
HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HEADING INTO THE REGION. THE
TWO SUGGESTED SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON
DIFFERENT TRACKS. ONE...LIFTING ENE INTO ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING...WHILE PUSHING INTO OUR VERY DRY AIR MASS. THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SORT OF COVERAGE AS WE SEE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM.
FORCING AND FCST BFR SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES COULD MOVE IN TOWARD EVENING IN NW LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER...AND THEN POSSIBLY INTO THE I75 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OR SO. BEHIND THAT...AND VERIFIED BY UPSTREAM SFC OBS...A
PERIOD OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL LEAVE SKIES
CLOUDY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE LIKELY...WHICH
WILL LAST FOR A BIT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ALL CLOUDY. PRIOR TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE LOWER
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THESE TEMPS HERE WILL CLIMB AFTER THAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWER LOWER 30S IN NE LOWER...TO
THE UPPER 30S AND AROUND 40F WEST OF I-75 (WHERE CLOUDS WILL ALREADY
BE BY THIS EVENING).

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...WET WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: HOW DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE EAST COAST, NOW CUTTING OFF
FROM THE 500 MB FLOW. THIS IS WHAT LEADS TO THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

(10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB
FLOW SPLIT, WITH THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE STALLING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION SO THAT THERE IS STRONG
CHANCE THAT WE`LL HAVE PATCH DRIZZLE AT 12Z. IT LOOKS LIKE BY
SOUNDINGS THAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT. SO KEPT THE DRIZZLE IN
THROUGH 15Z, AND THEN WITH THE THINNING MOISTURE, STOP THE DRIZZLE
AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT UP WITH THE MIXING IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER STAYS NORTH OF THE
STRAITS, THIS LEAVES MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC FRONT AT 850 MB AND
BELOW A LITTLE THIN. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDED MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NE LOWER.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS PRETTY SMALL.
CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE, BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE SMALL CHANCE WE HAVE FOR NOW.

(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LE RAIN BY THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 0C TO -2C IF THE GFS IS RIGHT.
THEN TEMPERATURES WARM BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE DRY
WEATHER, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE INTO A CHILLY DAMP NIGHT IN NW LOWER
IF THE MODELS TREND MORE THIS WAY.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...(10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY AS THE SFC HIGH FORCES THE
MOISTURE EAST AGAIN AND ALLOWING THE 850 MB AND SFC TEMPERATURES TO
RISE. (10/27)MONDAY...THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
ONSET OF TH RAIN WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER, AND A FLATTER RIDGE
AT 500 MB. THE ECWMF IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED, SO THINK THAT IT
MAY BE ONTO THE RIGHT TRACK WITH THE SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN.
(10/28)TUESDAY...THE RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY NOW, BUT THE GFS
STILL WRAPS THE SFC LOW PRETTY TIGHT. AM BEGINNING TO WONDER IF THE
THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS WITH ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION IT FORMS, AND THE MUCH DEEPER LOW. THIS WOULD
ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
(10/29)WEDNESDAY...AGAIN BOTH MODELS HAVE RAIN FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND NOT SIDE WITH HOW WE
GET TO THIS POINT UNTIL THERE ARE FEW MORE RUNS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAIN OVERHEAD. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT
STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER...AND THOSE
AREAS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AIRPORTS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SE BLO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY AND BACK TO
CALM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY THE WEEKEND...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A DECAYING SFC TROUGH ARRIVES TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THIS TIME...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT BRING
POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. COLD AIR POURING
IN SATURDAY VIA A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WNW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KDTX 230741
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
341 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

1024 MB SURFACE HIGH TUCKED BENEATH A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL DEFINE CONDITIONS LOCALLY TODAY.  SOME PESKY POCKETS OF
SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AN EXISTING DEEP DRY LAYER AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THEN ENSURING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INTEGRATING ROUGHLY 2-3 DEGREES OF WARMING
THROUGH THE 925-850 MB LAYER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR
BOTH THE ADDED INSOLATION AND GENERAL INCREASE IN THICKNESSES VIA
RISING HEIGHTS.  THIS WILL CENTER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.

SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED TO A STRONG WAVE/CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL
PINCH INTO THE EXISTING RIDGING...SHEARING ACROSS SE MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH THE BETTER FORCING TIED TO THE PARENT
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK CVA AS THE TRAILING SHEAR AXIS EJECTS THROUGH.  A LIMITED
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE WORKING AGAINST A STOUT DRY
LAYER HELD IN PLACE BY PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING.  THIS POINTS TO
SIMPLY SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES EMERGING VERY LATE WITHIN AN EXPANDING FIELD OF VIRGA.
MODEL EVIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF A DEFINED POP
MENTION AT THIS TIME.  LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH JUST VIRGA OR
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO. GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS H850 TEMPS RISE BACK UP
NEAR 7C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

BIGGER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE UPPER ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS
ENERGY ACROSS ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING HAS SPED
UP A LITTLE. CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLY DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE (12-18Z
PER GFS/NAM)...HOWEVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE EURO HAVE SHOWN A
TIMING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS
DRY GIVEN LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE TIMING WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY. AN EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MEAN THAT MAX TEMPS ARE
REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY (STILL FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S)...AND IF
OTHER MODELS COME AROUND TO THE EURO SOLUTION...TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
SHOULD BE QUITE HEALTHY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LAPSE
RATES...AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN A CORE OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. SURFACE GUSTS THEREFORE LOOK TO
ACHIEVE 35 TO EVEN 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
CONTINUING THE DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER OVER THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S HOWEVER ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BEFORE MODERATING SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE STILL DIVIDED WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM EAST
OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS ON TUESDAY (HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AT 144 HOURS)...AND THE 12Z EURO BRINGING IT
ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY...KEEPING CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE...BEFORE FLIPPING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE WARMER
LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE
SURFACE...AND THESE GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS WE DRAW CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1151 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

//DISCUSSION...

NOW THAT SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED THE SET UP IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE SUGGESTING FOG MAY NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD. NONETHELESS SOME BRIEF
INTERVALS OF MVFR AND IFR CERTAINLY RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

FOR DTW...LESS INFLUENCE FROM LAKE HURON AND WARMER NIGHTTIME MINS
IN METRO DETROIT WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN
LIGHT OF COOLING POTENTIAL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY
TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 230733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
333 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.

TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KGRR 230729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION.  THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME.  ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.  IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WIDE MIX OF CONDITIONS WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z...FROM VFR
TO IFR. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT THERE WERE PATCHES OF
STRATUS AROUND. ONE PATCH WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER...NEAR
Y70...WITH ANOTHER PATCH OVER NW OH. BOTH AREAS WERE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST.  THERE WAS ALSO PATCHES OF FOG AROUND WHICH SHOULD EXPAND
SOMEWHAT.

TRENDED THE TAFS MAINLY MVFR...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
IFR AROUND THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO DISSIPATE.

BY LATE THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SHOWERS WILL
MOVE IN...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOR WESTERN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE






000
FXUS63 KAPX 230527
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
127 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PLANTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRESENT FEW WEATHER
CHALLENGES...BUT NOT IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  LOWER CLOUDS/STRATUS
HAVE BEEN VERY PESKY TODAY DESPITE LOWERING INVERSIONS AND DRYING
FROM ALOFT.  LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES GRADUALLY COME AROUND MORE LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE NOT MIXING OUT
WELL THIS AFTERNOON /SOUTHEAST AREAS/ HAVE GROWING CONCERN THAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THIS MAY VERY WELL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.  HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR
MODEL SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT WILL NOT GO
QUITE AS COLD IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE SFC DWPTS ARE HIGHER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT STRATUS EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...DRY THURSDAY/SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT/BREEZY SATURDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A COUPLE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC BASIN (AND THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE "ANA"
DRIFTING NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF HAWAII) GIVE WAY TO A MORE
"CHOPPY" PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1035MB CENTER OVER QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS.  VERY DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES APART FROM A VERY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAKE-INFLUENCED
MOIST LAYER...WHILE A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS COLD FRONT.

PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/
GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEIGHT FALLS PASSING NEAR
OR NORTH OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  THIS
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER LAKES FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): UNFORTUNATELY...WHAT HAD
YESTERDAY LOOKED TO BE A PROMISING PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO NOT LOOK SO OUTSTANDING.  CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE
TO START FRIDAY...THEN PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT.  GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO HANG
ON THURSDAY...SQUEEZED BETWEEN NORTHEAST COASTAL LOW AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BE ONE OF FOG/STRATUS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE
RELATIVE LACK OF MIXING ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  CONCERNS SHARED BY THE SHORT AND LONG TERM
DESKS THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT AND/OR FOG
FORMATION...GIVEN THE THEORY THAT WHATEVER REMAINS OF CLOUD DECK
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER AT SUNSET WILL SIMPLY EXPAND AGAIN
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TONIGHT AND GET PULLED BACK NORTH WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WITHIN STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  CURRENT
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S AND UNLIKELY TO DROP MUCH
UNLESS CLOUDS THIN QUICKLY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SO SUSPECT THAT
SOME FOG/STRATUS WILL END UP BEING AN ISSUE FOR A TIME THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL HIGHLIGHT NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER FOR NOW GIVEN
A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION.  MEANWHILE...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE DAY...SPREADING IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS TO EVALUATE LOW QPF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.  EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT MUCH OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WOULD DROP SOUTH AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT RECENT TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SO WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SUGGESTIONS OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  WILL TEND
TOWARD PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND TWEAK
FORECAST HIGHS DOWN A BIT.  ANOTHER NEW WRINKLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK THAT ORIGINALLY WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NOW WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
DECENT QG SUPPORT...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SOMETHING OF A CONCERN AND
ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY.  SO THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (A CONSENSUS APPROACH) WILL
SUFFICE TO GET THE TREND IN THE FORECAST.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): EXPECTED COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE...JET STREAK/HEIGHT
FALLS AS MENTIONED ABOVE TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THAN EARLIER FORECAST TRENDS SUGGESTED.  STILL SOME
POTENTIAL I SUPPOSE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATER SUNDAY...A LITTLE SLOWER TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER RUNS SO MAY STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON
WHETHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SPLITS OR
REMAINS IN ONE PIECE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAIN OVERHEAD. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT
STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER...AND THOSE
AREAS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AIRPORTS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SE BLO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY AND BACK TO
CALM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SOME STRATUS POSSIBLE ON LAKE HURON SOUTH OF
HARRISVILLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JK







000
FXUS63 KGRR 230526
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
126 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLOUDS WITH IT OTHER THAN A CHANCE
OF A RAIN SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
NEXT WEEK ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE
ELEVATED WITH AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP IN PLACE. MOST OF
THE STRATUS CLOUDS THAT WERE EAST OF HWY 131 EARLIER HAVE
DISSIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR ISSUES TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POSSIBLE
STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THEN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH A WEAKENING FRONT.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME STRATUS CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT/THIS
MORNING. STRATUS HAS BEEN PESKY TODAY IN HOLDING ON AND NOT MIXING
OUT AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THIS IS LIKELY TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OFF
OF LAKE HURON AND WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVER THE AREA. THE STRATUS HAS SHOWN A QUICKER DISSIPATION OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO
SUNSET. SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE EAST UNTIL THE WIND
FLOW CHANGES AND THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT OFF OF LAKE HURON FOR THE
AREA.

WE HAVE LEFT IN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN. A DECENT UPPER
TROUGH/SFC FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL HEAD INTO
CANADA AND CLOSE OFF UP THERE. DOWN IN THE U.S....THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AND HELP TO DAMPEN THE TROUGH OUT
DOWN HERE. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DISSIPATES AS IT APPROACHES...
HELPING TO DISSIPATE ANY RAINFALL. SOME OF IT COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE
IT TOTALLY DRIES UP...BUT IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA IN A
SIGNIFICANT WAY.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS HOLD ON OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDS ON. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. IF WE CAN GET
RID OF THE CLOUDS SOON ENOUGH...60 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 10C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST IS A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY. THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE NEAR HUDSON BAY SO WE/RE NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS WITH IT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY BUT WILL DROP HIGHS 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE
TOWARD WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION TYPE PCPN
MAY DEVELOP MONDAY BUT DOESN/T LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT AS THE LOW IS
FILLING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO
COME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A TRAILING LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND SLOWS THE FRONT UP A BIT.
THE TRAILING LOW ALSO PUSHES MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOO WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE PCPN POTENTIAL. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THE MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN WOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY VS EARLIER TUESDAY WITH THE
GFS. TOOK A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THINGS SLOW DOWN.

TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS APPROACHING 70 SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN CWA LATE
MONDAY WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WIDE MIX OF CONDITIONS WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z...FROM VFR
TO IFR. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT THERE WERE PATCHES OF
STRATUS AROUND. ONE PATCH WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER...NEAR
Y70...WITH ANOTHER PATCH OVER NW OH. BOTH AREAS WERE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST.  THERE WAS ALSO PATCHES OF FOG AROUND WHICH SHOULD EXPAND SOMEWHAT.

TRENDED THE TAFS MAINLY MVFR...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
IFR AROUND THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO DISSIPATE.

BY LATE THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SHOWERS WILL
MOVE IN...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOR WESTERN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL COME UP SOME LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING WAVE MOVING IN. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITERIA
UP TOWARD LUDINGTON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND AND WAVE
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES WOULD BE FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT TIME FRAME ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. RIVERS ARE RUNNING AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY
ALLOW THEM TO DROP OFF MORE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KMQT 230522
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.

TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KDTX 230351
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

NOW THAT SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED THE SET UP IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE SUGGESTING FOG MAY NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD. NONETHELESS SOME BRIEF
INTERVALS OF MVFR AND IFR CERTAINLY RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

FOR DTW...LESS INFLUENCE FROM LAKE HURON AND WARMER NIGHTTIME MINS
IN METRO DETROIT WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN
LIGHT OF COOLING POTENTIAL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY
TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1007 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...

THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE SHOWN THE STRATUS TO FINALLY
DIMINISH MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE AREA. A RESIDUAL INVERSION
/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING DURING THE NIGHT/ WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO
POSE THE RISK OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS /PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF THE AREA/. THE AREAS WHICH HAVE CLEARED HAVE BEEN
RADIATING QUITE WELL. IN LIGHT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE
ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
FOG WILL REMAIN A LITTLE MORE PROBABLE IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB REGION GIVEN THE E-NE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON. RECENT SATELLITE
DATA SUGGESTS A REGION OF DEVELOPING FOG/LOW STRATUS OVER SAGINAW
BAY WHICH COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE CLOUD COVER AS IT EVER SO SLOWLY ERODES
AWAY.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE BRINGING.  HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN WORKING ITS
WAY IN AND WILL RESULT IN HELPING TO CLEAR OUT CLOUDS.  WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE
EFFECT LEADING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TO THE LOWER 30S.  WITH THESE PARAMETERS
IN PLACE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  CURRENTLY ONLY A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IS IN THE FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE VARYING OPINIONS ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE.  THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUDS CAN CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NOTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE
CLOUDS ARE STILL PREVALENT.  IF CLOUDS STICK AROUND THIS WOULD KEEP
TEMPS COOLER AND IN TURN LEAD TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS TEMPS
WOULD BE ABLE TO APPROACH THE DEWPOINT FASTER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GET FLATTENED BY A TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLY JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL STAY UP ACROSS CANADA THOUGH AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SW CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH THE COOL POOL...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE EAST COAST...FURTHER EAST AWAY
FROM SE MI. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASE. OVERALL PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER SE MI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN AN ELEVATED FRONT WORKING ACROSS
THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING
TO AROUND 9C BY EVENING. A WEAK SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS CANADA WILL
SHED A PIECE OF ENERGY SE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
RESULTS WILL BE A SHEARING FGEN BAND WORKING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. ITS HARD TO FIND A MODEL SOLUTION THAT GIVES ANY CREDENCE TO
THE FRONT AS IT STRUGGLES TO FIGHT THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE FROM THE RIDGE AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WICKS AWAY TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CONTINUED THE MOSTLY CLOUDS FORECAST OVER NIGHT
WITH MIN TEMPS HOLDING UP AROUND 40 WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER THE
AREA WITH ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKING INTO THE
AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVER THURSDAY APPROACHING 60...BUT A SHARP THERMAL RIDGE AROUND 12C
AT 850MB WILL FOLD OVER INTO MI FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
UP IN MID 40S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY. DESPITE LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL
COLD ADVECTION FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH
THE LOWER 60S DUE TO DECENT MIXING HEIGHTS AND AMPLE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE BREEZY THOUGH WITH 925MB WINDS OF 30-35 KT
SUPPORTING DECENT GUST POTENTIAL. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL CAUSE A COOL DOWN FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...DROPPING TO THE MID-
50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CLOUD POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...BUT FOR NOW
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN
RECOVERY IN TEMPS FOR MONDAY. STILL LARGE MODEL SPREAD WITH INBOUND
UPPER TROUGHING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
TARGETED TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR CHANCE POPS.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
HIGH WILL BRING FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE LAKES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY VEER FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 230246
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1046 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLOUDS WITH IT OTHER THAN A CHANCE
OF A RAIN SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
NEXT WEEK ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE
ELEVATED WITH AN IDEAL RADATIONAL COOLING SET UP IN PLACE. MOST OF
THE STRATUS CLOUDS THAT WERE EAST OF HWY 131 EARLIER HAVE
DISSIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR ISSUES TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POSSIBLE
STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THEN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH A WEAKENING FRONT.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME STRATUS CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT/THIS
MORNING. STRATUS HAS BEEN PESKY TODAY IN HOLDING ON AND NOT MIXING
OUT AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THIS IS LIKELY TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OFF
OF LAKE HURON AND WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVER THE AREA. THE STRATUS HAS SHOWN A QUICKER DISSIPATION OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO
SUNSET. SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE EAST UNTIL THE WIND
FLOW CHANGES AND THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT OFF OF LAKE HURON FOR THE
AREA.

WE HAVE LEFT IN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN. A DECENT UPPER
TROUGH/SFC FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL HEAD INTO
CANADA AND CLOSE OFF UP THERE. DOWN IN THE U.S....THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AND HELP TO DAMPEN THE TROUGH OUT
DOWN HERE. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DISSIPATES AS IT APPROACHES...
HELPING TO DISSIPATE ANY RAINFALL. SOME OF IT COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE
IT TOTALLY DRIES UP...BUT IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA IN A
SIGNIFICANT WAY.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS HOLD ON OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDS ON. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. IF WE CAN GET
RID OF THE CLOUDS SOON ENOUGH...60 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 10C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST IS A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY. THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE NEAR HUDSON BAY SO WE/RE NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS WITH IT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY BUT WILL DROP HIGHS 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE
TOWARD WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION TYPE PCPN
MAY DEVELOP MONDAY BUT DOESN/T LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT AS THE LOW IS
FILLING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO
COME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A TRAILING LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND SLOWS THE FRONT UP A BIT.
THE TRAILING LOW ALSO PUSHES MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOO WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE PCPN POTENTIAL. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THE MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN WOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY VS EARLIER TUESDAY WITH THE
GFS. TOOK A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THINGS SLOW DOWN.

TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS APPROACHING 70 SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN CWA LATE
MONDAY WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

STUBBORN BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FT CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE AREA FROM BTL TO LAN TO MBS. WILL FCST THESE CLOUDS
DISSIPATING BY 03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE NIGHTTIME HAS
SETTLED IN AND LACK OF MIXING UNDER THE SFC RIDGE COULD MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY GET RID OF THIS STRATUS TONIGHT.

THE OTHER ISSUE FOR LATER TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW AREAS
OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. CURRENTLY THE SFC DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND FCST LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN LOWER 30S. TIME OF YEAR AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIME
UNDER THE SFC RIDGE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL STRATUS/FOG HAS A
DECENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND LINGERING THROUGH
14-15Z.

THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK EAST OF GRR DOES
NOT DISSIPATE... THEN THE BTL-LAN-MBS CORRIDOR WOULD NOT BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE FOG AND LOWER BASED STRATUS.

SHOULD ANY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BE PRESENT THURSDAY MORNING... THE
TREND SHOULD BE FOR VFR TO DEVELOP EVERYWHERE BY 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL COME UP SOME LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING WAVE MOVING IN. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITERIA
UP TOWARD LUDINGTON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND AND WAVE
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES WOULD BE FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT TIME FRAME ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. RIVERS ARE RUNNING AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY
ALLOW THEM TO DROP OFF MORE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KDTX 230207
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1007 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE SHOWN THE STRATUS TO FINALLY
DIMINISH MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE AREA. A RESIDUAL INVERSION
/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING DURING THE NIGHT/ WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO
POSE THE RISK OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS /PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF THE AREA/. THE AREAS WHICH HAVE CLEARED HAVE BEEN
RADIATING QUITE WELL. IN LIGHT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE
ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
FOG WILL REMAIN A LITTLE MORE PROBABLE IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB REGION GIVEN THE E-NE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON. RECENT SATELLITE
DATA SUGGESTS A REGION OF DEVELOPING FOG/LOW STRATUS OVER SAGINAW
BAY WHICH COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 700 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

//DISCUSSION...

RESIDUAL STRATUS /NOW IMPACTING JUST FNT AND MBS/ WILL ATTEMPT TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS SLIGHT WARMING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HELPS TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON HAS HELD SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S. CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION WILL
PROVIDE GOOD COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL THUS POSE THE
RISK FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSUMING THE
ANTICIPATED CLEARING TREND HOLDS. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF LAKE
HURON UNDER LINGERING N-NE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE FOG POTENTIAL...
PARTICULARLY AT PTK/FNT/MBS. ALTHOUGH NOT STRONGLY CONFIDENT IN
FOG...THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME REDUCED
VSBYS IN THE TAFS.

FOR DTW...LESS INFLUENCE FROM LAKE HURON AND WARMER NIGHTTIME MINS
IN METRO DETROIT WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN
LIGHT OF COOLING POTENTIAL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY
TOWARD DAYBREAK CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE CLOUD COVER AS IT EVER SO SLOWLY ERODES
AWAY.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE BRINGING.  HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN WORKING ITS
WAY IN AND WILL RESULT IN HELPING TO CLEAR OUT CLOUDS.  WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE
EFFECT LEADING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TO THE LOWER 30S.  WITH THESE PARAMETERS
IN PLACE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  CURRENTLY ONLY A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IS IN THE FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE VARYING OPINIONS ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE.  THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUDS CAN CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NOTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE
CLOUDS ARE STILL PREVALENT.  IF CLOUDS STICK AROUND THIS WOULD KEEP
TEMPS COOLER AND IN TURN LEAD TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS TEMPS
WOULD BE ABLE TO APPROACH THE DEWPOINT FASTER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GET FLATTENED BY A TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLY JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL STAY UP ACROSS CANADA THOUGH AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SW CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH THE COOL POOL...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE EAST COAST...FURTHER EAST AWAY
FROM SE MI. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASE. OVERALL PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER SE MI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN AN ELEVATED FRONT WORKING ACROSS
THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING
TO AROUND 9C BY EVENING. A WEAK SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS CANADA WILL
SHED A PIECE OF ENERGY SE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
RESULTS WILL BE A SHEARING FGEN BAND WORKING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. ITS HARD TO FIND A MODEL SOLUTION THAT GIVES ANY CREDENCE TO
THE FRONT AS IT STRUGGLES TO FIGHT THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE FROM THE RIDGE AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WICKS AWAY TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CONTINUED THE MOSTLY CLOUDS FORECAST OVER NIGHT
WITH MIN TEMPS HOLDING UP AROUND 40 WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER THE
AREA WITH ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKING INTO THE
AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVER THURSDAY APPROACHING 60...BUT A SHARP THERMAL RIDGE AROUND 12C
AT 850MB WILL FOLD OVER INTO MI FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
UP IN MID 40S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY. DESPITE LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL
COLD ADVECTION FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH
THE LOWER 60S DUE TO DECENT MIXING HEIGHTS AND AMPLE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE BREEZY THOUGH WITH 925MB WINDS OF 30-35 KT
SUPPORTING DECENT GUST POTENTIAL. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL CAUSE A COOL DOWN FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...DROPPING TO THE MID-
50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CLOUD POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...BUT FOR NOW
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN
RECOVERY IN TEMPS FOR MONDAY. STILL LARGE MODEL SPREAD WITH INBOUND
UPPER TROUGHING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
TARGETED TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR CHANCE POPS.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
HIGH WILL BRING FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE LAKES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY VEER FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 230207
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1007 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE SHOWN THE STRATUS TO FINALLY
DIMINISH MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE AREA. A RESIDUAL INVERSION
/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING DURING THE NIGHT/ WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO
POSE THE RISK OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS /PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF THE AREA/. THE AREAS WHICH HAVE CLEARED HAVE BEEN
RADIATING QUITE WELL. IN LIGHT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE
ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
FOG WILL REMAIN A LITTLE MORE PROBABLE IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB REGION GIVEN THE E-NE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON. RECENT SATELLITE
DATA SUGGESTS A REGION OF DEVELOPING FOG/LOW STRATUS OVER SAGINAW
BAY WHICH COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 700 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

//DISCUSSION...

RESIDUAL STRATUS /NOW IMPACTING JUST FNT AND MBS/ WILL ATTEMPT TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS SLIGHT WARMING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HELPS TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON HAS HELD SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S. CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION WILL
PROVIDE GOOD COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL THUS POSE THE
RISK FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSUMING THE
ANTICIPATED CLEARING TREND HOLDS. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF LAKE
HURON UNDER LINGERING N-NE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE FOG POTENTIAL...
PARTICULARLY AT PTK/FNT/MBS. ALTHOUGH NOT STRONGLY CONFIDENT IN
FOG...THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME REDUCED
VSBYS IN THE TAFS.

FOR DTW...LESS INFLUENCE FROM LAKE HURON AND WARMER NIGHTTIME MINS
IN METRO DETROIT WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN
LIGHT OF COOLING POTENTIAL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY
TOWARD DAYBREAK CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE CLOUD COVER AS IT EVER SO SLOWLY ERODES
AWAY.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE BRINGING.  HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN WORKING ITS
WAY IN AND WILL RESULT IN HELPING TO CLEAR OUT CLOUDS.  WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE
EFFECT LEADING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TO THE LOWER 30S.  WITH THESE PARAMETERS
IN PLACE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  CURRENTLY ONLY A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IS IN THE FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE VARYING OPINIONS ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE.  THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUDS CAN CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NOTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE
CLOUDS ARE STILL PREVALENT.  IF CLOUDS STICK AROUND THIS WOULD KEEP
TEMPS COOLER AND IN TURN LEAD TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS TEMPS
WOULD BE ABLE TO APPROACH THE DEWPOINT FASTER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GET FLATTENED BY A TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLY JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL STAY UP ACROSS CANADA THOUGH AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SW CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH THE COOL POOL...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE EAST COAST...FURTHER EAST AWAY
FROM SE MI. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASE. OVERALL PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER SE MI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN AN ELEVATED FRONT WORKING ACROSS
THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING
TO AROUND 9C BY EVENING. A WEAK SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS CANADA WILL
SHED A PIECE OF ENERGY SE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
RESULTS WILL BE A SHEARING FGEN BAND WORKING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. ITS HARD TO FIND A MODEL SOLUTION THAT GIVES ANY CREDENCE TO
THE FRONT AS IT STRUGGLES TO FIGHT THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE FROM THE RIDGE AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WICKS AWAY TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CONTINUED THE MOSTLY CLOUDS FORECAST OVER NIGHT
WITH MIN TEMPS HOLDING UP AROUND 40 WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER THE
AREA WITH ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKING INTO THE
AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVER THURSDAY APPROACHING 60...BUT A SHARP THERMAL RIDGE AROUND 12C
AT 850MB WILL FOLD OVER INTO MI FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
UP IN MID 40S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY. DESPITE LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL
COLD ADVECTION FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH
THE LOWER 60S DUE TO DECENT MIXING HEIGHTS AND AMPLE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE BREEZY THOUGH WITH 925MB WINDS OF 30-35 KT
SUPPORTING DECENT GUST POTENTIAL. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL CAUSE A COOL DOWN FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...DROPPING TO THE MID-
50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CLOUD POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...BUT FOR NOW
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN
RECOVERY IN TEMPS FOR MONDAY. STILL LARGE MODEL SPREAD WITH INBOUND
UPPER TROUGHING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
TARGETED TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR CHANCE POPS.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
HIGH WILL BRING FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE LAKES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY VEER FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




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