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000
FXUS63 KAPX 280501
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1201 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN BOTH PENINSULAS THIS
THANKSGIVING EVENING. A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS HAVE EMERGED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONE IS IMPACTING CENTRAL KALKASKA CO...THE
OTHER REDUCED THE VSBY AT KINROSS BELOW 1SM FOR A FULL HOUR. BOTH
BANDS HAVE BEEN/ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING QUICK 1-2 INCH LOCAL
ACCUMS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST W OF LAKE
MI...WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT ANY
MOMENT. SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN SW SECTIONS THAT THIS IS
UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE FRANKFORT AWOS...AND
BANDS TRANSLATING EASTWARD JUST A TOUCH IN LEELANAU CO OVER THE
LAST 30-40MIN. AS THIS OCCURS...LES-IMPACTED AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW FLOW TO WSW FLOW BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IDEA...BUT WILL FILL IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. LES INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN AS RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC 1000-850MB FLOW ARRIVES...BUT POPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS THE SNOWBELTS SHIFT.

MIN TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...AS CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUNGING. CLOSEST THING TO AN EXCEPTION
TO THE ABOVE IS THE SAULT...DOWN TO 9F...BUT THE BACKING WINDS
WILL THROW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SAULT IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL PUSH LAKE EEFFECT SHSN
AWAY FROM TVC/MBL BUT TOWARD PLN. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK...WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST...-SN WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280501
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1201 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN BOTH PENINSULAS THIS
THANKSGIVING EVENING. A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS HAVE EMERGED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONE IS IMPACTING CENTRAL KALKASKA CO...THE
OTHER REDUCED THE VSBY AT KINROSS BELOW 1SM FOR A FULL HOUR. BOTH
BANDS HAVE BEEN/ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING QUICK 1-2 INCH LOCAL
ACCUMS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST W OF LAKE
MI...WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT ANY
MOMENT. SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN SW SECTIONS THAT THIS IS
UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE FRANKFORT AWOS...AND
BANDS TRANSLATING EASTWARD JUST A TOUCH IN LEELANAU CO OVER THE
LAST 30-40MIN. AS THIS OCCURS...LES-IMPACTED AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW FLOW TO WSW FLOW BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IDEA...BUT WILL FILL IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. LES INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN AS RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC 1000-850MB FLOW ARRIVES...BUT POPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS THE SNOWBELTS SHIFT.

MIN TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...AS CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUNGING. CLOSEST THING TO AN EXCEPTION
TO THE ABOVE IS THE SAULT...DOWN TO 9F...BUT THE BACKING WINDS
WILL THROW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SAULT IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL PUSH LAKE EEFFECT SHSN
AWAY FROM TVC/MBL BUT TOWARD PLN. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK...WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST...-SN WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280501
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1201 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN BOTH PENINSULAS THIS
THANKSGIVING EVENING. A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS HAVE EMERGED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONE IS IMPACTING CENTRAL KALKASKA CO...THE
OTHER REDUCED THE VSBY AT KINROSS BELOW 1SM FOR A FULL HOUR. BOTH
BANDS HAVE BEEN/ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING QUICK 1-2 INCH LOCAL
ACCUMS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST W OF LAKE
MI...WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT ANY
MOMENT. SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN SW SECTIONS THAT THIS IS
UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE FRANKFORT AWOS...AND
BANDS TRANSLATING EASTWARD JUST A TOUCH IN LEELANAU CO OVER THE
LAST 30-40MIN. AS THIS OCCURS...LES-IMPACTED AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW FLOW TO WSW FLOW BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IDEA...BUT WILL FILL IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. LES INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN AS RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC 1000-850MB FLOW ARRIVES...BUT POPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS THE SNOWBELTS SHIFT.

MIN TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...AS CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUNGING. CLOSEST THING TO AN EXCEPTION
TO THE ABOVE IS THE SAULT...DOWN TO 9F...BUT THE BACKING WINDS
WILL THROW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SAULT IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL PUSH LAKE EEFFECT SHSN
AWAY FROM TVC/MBL BUT TOWARD PLN. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK...WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST...-SN WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280501
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1201 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN BOTH PENINSULAS THIS
THANKSGIVING EVENING. A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS HAVE EMERGED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONE IS IMPACTING CENTRAL KALKASKA CO...THE
OTHER REDUCED THE VSBY AT KINROSS BELOW 1SM FOR A FULL HOUR. BOTH
BANDS HAVE BEEN/ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING QUICK 1-2 INCH LOCAL
ACCUMS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST W OF LAKE
MI...WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT ANY
MOMENT. SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN SW SECTIONS THAT THIS IS
UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE FRANKFORT AWOS...AND
BANDS TRANSLATING EASTWARD JUST A TOUCH IN LEELANAU CO OVER THE
LAST 30-40MIN. AS THIS OCCURS...LES-IMPACTED AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW FLOW TO WSW FLOW BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IDEA...BUT WILL FILL IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. LES INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN AS RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC 1000-850MB FLOW ARRIVES...BUT POPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS THE SNOWBELTS SHIFT.

MIN TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...AS CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUNGING. CLOSEST THING TO AN EXCEPTION
TO THE ABOVE IS THE SAULT...DOWN TO 9F...BUT THE BACKING WINDS
WILL THROW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SAULT IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL PUSH LAKE EEFFECT SHSN
AWAY FROM TVC/MBL BUT TOWARD PLN. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK...WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST...-SN WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMQT 280452
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1152 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT N OF KCMX IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO...RESULTING IN MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. TODAY...AREA OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF
-SN...IT APPEARS KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KIWD/KSAW...AND LIGHT UPSLOPE S/SE WINDS AT KSAW COULD EVEN RESULT
IN CIGS FALLING TO IFR THIS EVENING. -SN MAY STAY S OF KCMX...SO FOR
NOW...PLAN TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX THRU THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES FOR A FEW HRS LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 280452
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1152 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT N OF KCMX IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO...RESULTING IN MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. TODAY...AREA OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF
-SN...IT APPEARS KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KIWD/KSAW...AND LIGHT UPSLOPE S/SE WINDS AT KSAW COULD EVEN RESULT
IN CIGS FALLING TO IFR THIS EVENING. -SN MAY STAY S OF KCMX...SO FOR
NOW...PLAN TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX THRU THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES FOR A FEW HRS LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 280444
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1144 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING ACROSS SE MI OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONTINUED DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL FURTHER DECREASE THE CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE SOME
CLOUDS BASED BELOW 5K FT WILL LINGER INTO DAYBREAK...THE OVERALL
PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FEATURE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND
INTERVALS OF CLEAR SKIES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LATER FRI MORNING. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE AMBIENT DRY
AIR WILL ERODE ANY RESIDUAL LOW STRATUS NEAR LAKE MI PRIOR TO
ARRIVING IN SE MI. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A REGION
OF LIGHT SNOW...EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO THE TERMINALS LATE FRI
AFTERNOON /20Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME/. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SNOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING A GENERAL AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...WHICH WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG THIS TROUGH...TWO LAKE ENHANCED
VORTICITY CENTERS HAVE LED TO A CONCENTRATED OF MORE MEANINGFUL SNOW
SHOWERS.

OVER LAKE HURON...ONE SUCH FEATURE BRUSHED THE TIP OF THE THUMB
TODAY AND IS NOW PIVOTING EASTWARD ONTO THE CANADIAN SHORELINE THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL
ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB...ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE NOW SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE...AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST
AS THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD.

EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER IS
WELL DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. IT APPEARS THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL UP SNOW CHANCES THROUGH 00Z AND INCREASE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OR SO AS SOME OF THESE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS CROSS LENAWEE AND POSSIBLY MONROE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT
IN DIMINISHING WINDS...SO CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THESE EXPECTED TRENDS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS SPORADIC SINGLE DIGITS OVER
THE SAGINAW VALLEY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE TROUGH THAT HAS HUNG OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS A MUCH LOWER
AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN...NEARLY ZONAL...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD WEAKER
FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH STRONGER WAVES TRACKING TO THE NORTH
THROUGH CANADA WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT ANY NOTABLE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL HOWEVER HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS SOME WEAKER
SYSTEMS/FRONTS ROLL THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
FROM DAY TO DAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS INTO THE AREA AND
HOVERS FOR A WHILE.

FRIDAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ALBEIT ONLY AN INCH OR 2...AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH LOWER MI. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE MODELS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT JOG NORTH AND A BIT LOWER QPF. OVERALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK BAND OF FGEN SWEEPING THROUGH
AROUND 00Z SAT. THE FRONT DOES FEATURE A LITTLE BETTER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THOUGH ALONG THE 290-295K SURFACES. A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE
BL CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE SYSTEM AND THE MEAGER 0.4-0.5 INCH PWATS
WILL STRUGGLE AT FIRST TO SATURATE IT. REGARDLESS THOUGH...MODELS
ARE STILL IN THE BALL PARK OF 0.05-0.1 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...DECREASING TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. THIS
KEEPS US GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTH OF THE M59
CORRIDOR...WITH THE CHANCE OF UP TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF I69.

A GOOD DEAL OF WAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY AS THE SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND STRONG SW
FLOW COMMENCES. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE ENTIRE COLUMN UP TO
700MB SHOULD RISE ABOVE 0C BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS COMING
IN AROUND 10C. THE COLUMN LOSES ALOT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WHILE
KEEPING THE BL SATURATED ALMOST UP TO ABOUT 850MB TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. THIS MAY LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-SUN OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEKEND AS SFC TEMPS
APPROACH 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND UP TO THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 7C.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISE THE HIGH TO BE AT 1044MB AS IS DRIFTS FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THUS ANY FLUCTUATIONS WILL LEAD TO
NOTABLE TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS USHER A COLDER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RAMP UP FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF THE COLD AIR PUSH BUT WILL
NOT STAY ELEVATED TOO LONG. THIS HAS LEAD TO A MARGINAL GALE EVENT
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN WINDS GUSTING TO LOW END GALE FORCE. A GALE
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE
ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT A RANDOM GUST TO 35 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...BUT THIS
WOULD ONLY OCCUR OVER SHORT TIMEFRAME THUS THE WARNING WILL NOT BE
EXPANDED. THE NORTHWEST FLOW GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS HAS LEAD TO
ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON CLIPPING THE
NEARSHORE ZONES AROUND THE THUMB THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 280444
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1144 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING ACROSS SE MI OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONTINUED DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL FURTHER DECREASE THE CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE SOME
CLOUDS BASED BELOW 5K FT WILL LINGER INTO DAYBREAK...THE OVERALL
PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FEATURE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND
INTERVALS OF CLEAR SKIES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LATER FRI MORNING. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE AMBIENT DRY
AIR WILL ERODE ANY RESIDUAL LOW STRATUS NEAR LAKE MI PRIOR TO
ARRIVING IN SE MI. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A REGION
OF LIGHT SNOW...EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO THE TERMINALS LATE FRI
AFTERNOON /20Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME/. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SNOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING A GENERAL AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...WHICH WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG THIS TROUGH...TWO LAKE ENHANCED
VORTICITY CENTERS HAVE LED TO A CONCENTRATED OF MORE MEANINGFUL SNOW
SHOWERS.

OVER LAKE HURON...ONE SUCH FEATURE BRUSHED THE TIP OF THE THUMB
TODAY AND IS NOW PIVOTING EASTWARD ONTO THE CANADIAN SHORELINE THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL
ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB...ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE NOW SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE...AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST
AS THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD.

EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER IS
WELL DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. IT APPEARS THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL UP SNOW CHANCES THROUGH 00Z AND INCREASE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OR SO AS SOME OF THESE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS CROSS LENAWEE AND POSSIBLY MONROE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT
IN DIMINISHING WINDS...SO CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THESE EXPECTED TRENDS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS SPORADIC SINGLE DIGITS OVER
THE SAGINAW VALLEY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE TROUGH THAT HAS HUNG OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS A MUCH LOWER
AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN...NEARLY ZONAL...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD WEAKER
FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH STRONGER WAVES TRACKING TO THE NORTH
THROUGH CANADA WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT ANY NOTABLE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL HOWEVER HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS SOME WEAKER
SYSTEMS/FRONTS ROLL THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
FROM DAY TO DAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS INTO THE AREA AND
HOVERS FOR A WHILE.

FRIDAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ALBEIT ONLY AN INCH OR 2...AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH LOWER MI. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE MODELS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT JOG NORTH AND A BIT LOWER QPF. OVERALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK BAND OF FGEN SWEEPING THROUGH
AROUND 00Z SAT. THE FRONT DOES FEATURE A LITTLE BETTER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THOUGH ALONG THE 290-295K SURFACES. A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE
BL CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE SYSTEM AND THE MEAGER 0.4-0.5 INCH PWATS
WILL STRUGGLE AT FIRST TO SATURATE IT. REGARDLESS THOUGH...MODELS
ARE STILL IN THE BALL PARK OF 0.05-0.1 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...DECREASING TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. THIS
KEEPS US GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTH OF THE M59
CORRIDOR...WITH THE CHANCE OF UP TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF I69.

A GOOD DEAL OF WAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY AS THE SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND STRONG SW
FLOW COMMENCES. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE ENTIRE COLUMN UP TO
700MB SHOULD RISE ABOVE 0C BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS COMING
IN AROUND 10C. THE COLUMN LOSES ALOT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WHILE
KEEPING THE BL SATURATED ALMOST UP TO ABOUT 850MB TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. THIS MAY LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-SUN OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEKEND AS SFC TEMPS
APPROACH 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND UP TO THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 7C.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISE THE HIGH TO BE AT 1044MB AS IS DRIFTS FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THUS ANY FLUCTUATIONS WILL LEAD TO
NOTABLE TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS USHER A COLDER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RAMP UP FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF THE COLD AIR PUSH BUT WILL
NOT STAY ELEVATED TOO LONG. THIS HAS LEAD TO A MARGINAL GALE EVENT
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN WINDS GUSTING TO LOW END GALE FORCE. A GALE
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE
ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT A RANDOM GUST TO 35 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...BUT THIS
WOULD ONLY OCCUR OVER SHORT TIMEFRAME THUS THE WARNING WILL NOT BE
EXPANDED. THE NORTHWEST FLOW GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS HAS LEAD TO
ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON CLIPPING THE
NEARSHORE ZONES AROUND THE THUMB THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRR 280435
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1135 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER THREE
INCHES BUT MAY STILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE BECOMES
SHALLOWER. FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST NEAR THE
LAKESHORE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT HAS OVERACHIEVED TODAY WITH LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES WHERE HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE PERSISTED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SFC TROUGH SO WILL CANCEL THE NRN PORTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. HOWEVER EVEN HERE THE TREND SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.

WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
BECOMES QUITE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY
SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF THREAT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SFC TEMPS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOOKING QUIET AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ON MONDAY - TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHOT ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY AS PER GFS/FIM BUT THE ECMWF IS ALL HIGH PRESSURE AT THIS
POINT.

TIMING OF FIRST COLD FRONT STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUR NEAR 50 DEGREE READINGS AT THIS POINT.
THERE WILL BE GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
DEEPER FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT DOES NOT REALLY COUPLE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE UNTIL THE FRONT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN.

OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS VERY LIMITED AS COLD AIR
MOVES BACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE VERY
DIFFLUENT AS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND ALOFT WE
REMAIN MORE OR LESS ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF JET AXIS. THIS WILL ALL
RESULT IN VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A LACK OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOLLOWED BY SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKING LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND
WEEK OF DECEMBER PER FIM/GFS PARA/ECWMF.  GFS/ECMWF LOOKING WARM THE
WHOLE WEEK BUT FIM BRINGS ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY (DEC 8TH).  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THAT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST BET. ALL NWP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERALL DRY PATTERN AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT IMPACTS ARE FORECASTED TO BE MINIMAL. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A BAND OF STEADIER SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. TAF SITES KMKG...KGRR AND KLAN APPEAR TO BE AT THE
GREATEST RISK FOR THIS SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH THE SETUP FOR IMPACT
CONDITIONS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE RISK FOR SNOW WILL THEN EXIST INTO
THE EVENING.

A WARM LAYER IS SHOWN TO POTENTIALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
03Z SAT AT AROUND 6000 FT. IF THIS HAPPENS WE WILL SEE THE
PRECIPITATION MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THEN A BRIEF LULL IN WIND AND WAVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED UNTIL SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ONLY TWO ADVISORIES ARE REMAINING...EACH AT SCOTTVILLE AND NEW
RICHMOND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FRIDAYS
EVENT MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY
IMMEDIATE RUNOFF. WEEKEND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL. SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FIND ITS WAY TO STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
ADVISORIES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH NO NOTABLE REASON FOR CONCERN
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 280435
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1135 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER THREE
INCHES BUT MAY STILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE BECOMES
SHALLOWER. FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST NEAR THE
LAKESHORE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT HAS OVERACHIEVED TODAY WITH LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES WHERE HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE PERSISTED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SFC TROUGH SO WILL CANCEL THE NRN PORTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. HOWEVER EVEN HERE THE TREND SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.

WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
BECOMES QUITE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY
SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF THREAT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SFC TEMPS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOOKING QUIET AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ON MONDAY - TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHOT ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY AS PER GFS/FIM BUT THE ECMWF IS ALL HIGH PRESSURE AT THIS
POINT.

TIMING OF FIRST COLD FRONT STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUR NEAR 50 DEGREE READINGS AT THIS POINT.
THERE WILL BE GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
DEEPER FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT DOES NOT REALLY COUPLE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE UNTIL THE FRONT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN.

OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS VERY LIMITED AS COLD AIR
MOVES BACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE VERY
DIFFLUENT AS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND ALOFT WE
REMAIN MORE OR LESS ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF JET AXIS. THIS WILL ALL
RESULT IN VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A LACK OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOLLOWED BY SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKING LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND
WEEK OF DECEMBER PER FIM/GFS PARA/ECWMF.  GFS/ECMWF LOOKING WARM THE
WHOLE WEEK BUT FIM BRINGS ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY (DEC 8TH).  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THAT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST BET. ALL NWP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERALL DRY PATTERN AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT IMPACTS ARE FORECASTED TO BE MINIMAL. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A BAND OF STEADIER SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. TAF SITES KMKG...KGRR AND KLAN APPEAR TO BE AT THE
GREATEST RISK FOR THIS SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH THE SETUP FOR IMPACT
CONDITIONS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE RISK FOR SNOW WILL THEN EXIST INTO
THE EVENING.

A WARM LAYER IS SHOWN TO POTENTIALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
03Z SAT AT AROUND 6000 FT. IF THIS HAPPENS WE WILL SEE THE
PRECIPITATION MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THEN A BRIEF LULL IN WIND AND WAVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED UNTIL SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ONLY TWO ADVISORIES ARE REMAINING...EACH AT SCOTTVILLE AND NEW
RICHMOND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FRIDAYS
EVENT MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY
IMMEDIATE RUNOFF. WEEKEND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL. SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FIND ITS WAY TO STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
ADVISORIES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH NO NOTABLE REASON FOR CONCERN
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 280301
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN BOTH PENINSULAS THIS
THANKSGIVING EVENING. A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS HAVE EMERGED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONE IS IMPACTING CENTRAL KALKASKA CO...THE
OTHER REDUCED THE VSBY AT KINROSS BELOW 1SM FOR A FULL HOUR. BOTH
BANDS HAVE BEEN/ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING QUICK 1-2 INCH LOCAL
ACCUMS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST W OF LAKE
MI...WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT ANY
MOMENT. SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN SW SECTIONS THAT THIS IS
UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE FRANKFORT AWOS...AND
BANDS TRANSLATING EASTWARD JUST A TOUCH IN LEELANAU CO OVER THE
LAST 30-40MIN. AS THIS OCCURS...LES-IMPACTED AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW FLOW TO WSW FLOW BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IDEA...BUT WILL FILL IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. LES INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN AS RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC 1000-850MB FLOW ARRIVES...BUT POPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS THE SNOWBELTS SHIFT.

MIN TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...AS CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUNGING. CLOSEST THING TO AN EXCEPTION
TO THE ABOVE IS THE SAULT...DOWN TO 9F...BUT THE BACKING WINDS
WILL THROW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SAULT IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE MI. IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN
FRIDAY.

NW-FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN STREAMING OFF OF
NORTHERN LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO DIMINISH -SHSN. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...-SN
WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 280301
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN BOTH PENINSULAS THIS
THANKSGIVING EVENING. A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS HAVE EMERGED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONE IS IMPACTING CENTRAL KALKASKA CO...THE
OTHER REDUCED THE VSBY AT KINROSS BELOW 1SM FOR A FULL HOUR. BOTH
BANDS HAVE BEEN/ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING QUICK 1-2 INCH LOCAL
ACCUMS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST W OF LAKE
MI...WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT ANY
MOMENT. SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN SW SECTIONS THAT THIS IS
UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE FRANKFORT AWOS...AND
BANDS TRANSLATING EASTWARD JUST A TOUCH IN LEELANAU CO OVER THE
LAST 30-40MIN. AS THIS OCCURS...LES-IMPACTED AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW FLOW TO WSW FLOW BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IDEA...BUT WILL FILL IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. LES INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN AS RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC 1000-850MB FLOW ARRIVES...BUT POPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS THE SNOWBELTS SHIFT.

MIN TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...AS CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUNGING. CLOSEST THING TO AN EXCEPTION
TO THE ABOVE IS THE SAULT...DOWN TO 9F...BUT THE BACKING WINDS
WILL THROW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SAULT IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE MI. IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN
FRIDAY.

NW-FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN STREAMING OFF OF
NORTHERN LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO DIMINISH -SHSN. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...-SN
WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 280301
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN BOTH PENINSULAS THIS
THANKSGIVING EVENING. A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS HAVE EMERGED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONE IS IMPACTING CENTRAL KALKASKA CO...THE
OTHER REDUCED THE VSBY AT KINROSS BELOW 1SM FOR A FULL HOUR. BOTH
BANDS HAVE BEEN/ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING QUICK 1-2 INCH LOCAL
ACCUMS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST W OF LAKE
MI...WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT ANY
MOMENT. SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN SW SECTIONS THAT THIS IS
UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE FRANKFORT AWOS...AND
BANDS TRANSLATING EASTWARD JUST A TOUCH IN LEELANAU CO OVER THE
LAST 30-40MIN. AS THIS OCCURS...LES-IMPACTED AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW FLOW TO WSW FLOW BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IDEA...BUT WILL FILL IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. LES INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN AS RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC 1000-850MB FLOW ARRIVES...BUT POPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS THE SNOWBELTS SHIFT.

MIN TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...AS CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUNGING. CLOSEST THING TO AN EXCEPTION
TO THE ABOVE IS THE SAULT...DOWN TO 9F...BUT THE BACKING WINDS
WILL THROW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SAULT IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE MI. IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN
FRIDAY.

NW-FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN STREAMING OFF OF
NORTHERN LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO DIMINISH -SHSN. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...-SN
WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 280301
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN BOTH PENINSULAS THIS
THANKSGIVING EVENING. A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS HAVE EMERGED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONE IS IMPACTING CENTRAL KALKASKA CO...THE
OTHER REDUCED THE VSBY AT KINROSS BELOW 1SM FOR A FULL HOUR. BOTH
BANDS HAVE BEEN/ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING QUICK 1-2 INCH LOCAL
ACCUMS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST W OF LAKE
MI...WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT ANY
MOMENT. SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN SW SECTIONS THAT THIS IS
UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE FRANKFORT AWOS...AND
BANDS TRANSLATING EASTWARD JUST A TOUCH IN LEELANAU CO OVER THE
LAST 30-40MIN. AS THIS OCCURS...LES-IMPACTED AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW FLOW TO WSW FLOW BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IDEA...BUT WILL FILL IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. LES INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN AS RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC 1000-850MB FLOW ARRIVES...BUT POPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS THE SNOWBELTS SHIFT.

MIN TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...AS CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUNGING. CLOSEST THING TO AN EXCEPTION
TO THE ABOVE IS THE SAULT...DOWN TO 9F...BUT THE BACKING WINDS
WILL THROW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SAULT IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE MI. IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN
FRIDAY.

NW-FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN STREAMING OFF OF
NORTHERN LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO DIMINISH -SHSN. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...-SN
WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KGRR 280224
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
924 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER THREE
INCHES BUT MAY STILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE BECOMES
SHALLOWER. FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST NEAR THE
LAKESHORE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT HAS OVERACHIEVED TODAY WITH LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES WHERE HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE PERSISTED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SFC TROUGH SO WILL CANCEL THE NRN PORTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. HOWEVER EVEN HERE THE TREND SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.

WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
BECOMES QUITE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY
SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF THREAT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SFC TEMPS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOOKING QUIET AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ON MONDAY - TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHOT ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY AS PER GFS/FIM BUT THE ECMWF IS ALL HIGH PRESSURE AT THIS
POINT.

TIMING OF FIRST COLD FRONT STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUR NEAR 50 DEGREE READINGS AT THIS POINT.
THERE WILL BE GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
DEEPER FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT DOES NOT REALLY COUPLE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE UNTIL THE FRONT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN.

OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS VERY LIMITED AS COLD AIR
MOVES BACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE VERY
DIFFLUENT AS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND ALOFT WE
REMAIN MORE OR LESS ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF JET AXIS. THIS WILL ALL
RESULT IN VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A LACK OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOLLOWED BY SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKING LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND
WEEK OF DECEMBER PER FIM/GFS PARA/ECWMF.  GFS/ECMWF LOOKING WARM THE
WHOLE WEEK BUT FIM BRINGS ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY (DEC 8TH).  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THAT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST BET. ALL NWP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERALL DRY PATTERN AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY GO AWAY. THUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WITH VFR WEATHER HAS BEEN FORECASTED. KMKG WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CONSIDERING THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.

A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. KGRR AND KMKG ALONG WITH KLAN SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS AREA OF SNOW...AND IFR LOOKS LIKELY. THE
EVENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SAT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THEN A BRIEF LULL IN WIND AND WAVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED UNTIL SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ONLY TWO ADVISORIES ARE REMAINING...EACH AT SCOTTVILLE AND NEW
RICHMOND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FRIDAYS
EVENT MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY
IMMEDIATE RUNOFF. WEEKEND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL. SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FIND ITS WAY TO STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
ADVISORIES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH NO NOTABLE REASON FOR CONCERN
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 280224
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
924 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER THREE
INCHES BUT MAY STILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE BECOMES
SHALLOWER. FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST NEAR THE
LAKESHORE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT HAS OVERACHIEVED TODAY WITH LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES WHERE HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE PERSISTED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SFC TROUGH SO WILL CANCEL THE NRN PORTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. HOWEVER EVEN HERE THE TREND SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.

WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
BECOMES QUITE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY
SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF THREAT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SFC TEMPS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOOKING QUIET AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ON MONDAY - TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHOT ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY AS PER GFS/FIM BUT THE ECMWF IS ALL HIGH PRESSURE AT THIS
POINT.

TIMING OF FIRST COLD FRONT STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUR NEAR 50 DEGREE READINGS AT THIS POINT.
THERE WILL BE GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
DEEPER FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT DOES NOT REALLY COUPLE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE UNTIL THE FRONT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN.

OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS VERY LIMITED AS COLD AIR
MOVES BACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE VERY
DIFFLUENT AS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND ALOFT WE
REMAIN MORE OR LESS ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF JET AXIS. THIS WILL ALL
RESULT IN VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A LACK OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOLLOWED BY SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKING LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND
WEEK OF DECEMBER PER FIM/GFS PARA/ECWMF.  GFS/ECMWF LOOKING WARM THE
WHOLE WEEK BUT FIM BRINGS ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY (DEC 8TH).  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THAT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST BET. ALL NWP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERALL DRY PATTERN AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY GO AWAY. THUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WITH VFR WEATHER HAS BEEN FORECASTED. KMKG WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CONSIDERING THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.

A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. KGRR AND KMKG ALONG WITH KLAN SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS AREA OF SNOW...AND IFR LOOKS LIKELY. THE
EVENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SAT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THEN A BRIEF LULL IN WIND AND WAVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED UNTIL SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ONLY TWO ADVISORIES ARE REMAINING...EACH AT SCOTTVILLE AND NEW
RICHMOND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FRIDAYS
EVENT MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY
IMMEDIATE RUNOFF. WEEKEND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL. SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FIND ITS WAY TO STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
ADVISORIES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH NO NOTABLE REASON FOR CONCERN
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KMQT 272351
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
651 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE SHIFTED N OF KIWD. AT KSAW/KIWD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. AT KCMX...BACKING WINDS SHOULD SHIFT -SHSN
N OF KCMX AROUND 06Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. BEFORE THEN...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OCNL
IFR. ON FRI...BAND OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF -SN....
KIWD/KSAW ARE MORE LIKELY THAN KCMX TO SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 272351
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
651 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE SHIFTED N OF KIWD. AT KSAW/KIWD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. AT KCMX...BACKING WINDS SHOULD SHIFT -SHSN
N OF KCMX AROUND 06Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. BEFORE THEN...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OCNL
IFR. ON FRI...BAND OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF -SN....
KIWD/KSAW ARE MORE LIKELY THAN KCMX TO SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 272351
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
651 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE SHIFTED N OF KIWD. AT KSAW/KIWD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. AT KCMX...BACKING WINDS SHOULD SHIFT -SHSN
N OF KCMX AROUND 06Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. BEFORE THEN...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OCNL
IFR. ON FRI...BAND OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF -SN....
KIWD/KSAW ARE MORE LIKELY THAN KCMX TO SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 272351
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
651 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE SHIFTED N OF KIWD. AT KSAW/KIWD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. AT KCMX...BACKING WINDS SHOULD SHIFT -SHSN
N OF KCMX AROUND 06Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. BEFORE THEN...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OCNL
IFR. ON FRI...BAND OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF -SN....
KIWD/KSAW ARE MORE LIKELY THAN KCMX TO SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KAPX 272340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE MI. IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN
FRIDAY.

NW-FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN STREAMING OFF OF
NORTHERN LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO DIMINISH -SHSN. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...-SN
WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 272340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE MI. IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN
FRIDAY.

NW-FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN STREAMING OFF OF
NORTHERN LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO DIMINISH -SHSN. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...-SN
WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 272340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE MI. IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN
FRIDAY.

NW-FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN STREAMING OFF OF
NORTHERN LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO DIMINISH -SHSN. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...-SN
WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 272340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE MI. IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN
FRIDAY.

NW-FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN STREAMING OFF OF
NORTHERN LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO DIMINISH -SHSN. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...-SN
WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KGRR 272339
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
639 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER THREE
INCHES BUT MAY STILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT HAS OVERACHIEVED TODAY WITH LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES WHERE HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE PERSISTED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SFC TROUGH SO WILL CANCEL THE NRN PORTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. HOWEVER EVEN HERE THE TREND SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.

WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
BECOMES QUITE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY
SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF THREAT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SFC TEMPS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOOKING QUIET AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ON MONDAY - TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHOT ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY AS PER GFS/FIM BUT THE ECMWF IS ALL HIGH PRESSURE AT THIS
POINT.

TIMING OF FIRST COLD FRONT STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUR NEAR 50 DEGREE READINGS AT THIS POINT.
THERE WILL BE GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
DEEPER FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT DOES NOT REALLY COUPLE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE UNTIL THE FRONT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN.

OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS VERY LIMITED AS COLD AIR
MOVES BACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE VERY
DIFFLUENT AS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND ALOFT WE
REMAIN MORE OR LESS ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF JET AXIS. THIS WILL ALL
RESULT IN VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A LACK OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOLLOWED BY SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKING LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND
WEEK OF DECEMBER PER FIM/GFS PARA/ECWMF.  GFS/ECMWF LOOKING WARM THE
WHOLE WEEK BUT FIM BRINGS ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY (DEC 8TH).  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THAT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST BET. ALL NWP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERALL DRY PATTERN AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY GO AWAY. THUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WITH VFR WEATHER HAS BEEN FORECASTED. KMKG WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CONSIDERING THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.

A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. KGRR AND KMKG ALONG WITH KLAN SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS AREA OF SNOW...AND IFR LOOKS LIKELY. THE
EVENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THEN A BRIEF LULL IN WIND AND WAVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED UNTIL SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ONLY TWO ADVISORIES ARE REMAINING...EACH AT SCOTTVILLE AND NEW
RICHMOND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FRIDAYS
EVENT MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY
IMMEDIATE RUNOFF. WEEKEND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL. SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FIND ITS WAY TO STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
ADVISORIES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH NO NOTABLE REASON FOR CONCERN
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ056-
     064-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 272339
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
639 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER THREE
INCHES BUT MAY STILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT HAS OVERACHIEVED TODAY WITH LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES WHERE HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE PERSISTED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SFC TROUGH SO WILL CANCEL THE NRN PORTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. HOWEVER EVEN HERE THE TREND SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.

WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
BECOMES QUITE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY
SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF THREAT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SFC TEMPS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOOKING QUIET AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ON MONDAY - TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHOT ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY AS PER GFS/FIM BUT THE ECMWF IS ALL HIGH PRESSURE AT THIS
POINT.

TIMING OF FIRST COLD FRONT STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUR NEAR 50 DEGREE READINGS AT THIS POINT.
THERE WILL BE GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
DEEPER FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT DOES NOT REALLY COUPLE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE UNTIL THE FRONT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN.

OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS VERY LIMITED AS COLD AIR
MOVES BACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE VERY
DIFFLUENT AS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND ALOFT WE
REMAIN MORE OR LESS ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF JET AXIS. THIS WILL ALL
RESULT IN VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A LACK OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOLLOWED BY SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKING LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND
WEEK OF DECEMBER PER FIM/GFS PARA/ECWMF.  GFS/ECMWF LOOKING WARM THE
WHOLE WEEK BUT FIM BRINGS ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY (DEC 8TH).  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THAT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST BET. ALL NWP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERALL DRY PATTERN AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY GO AWAY. THUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WITH VFR WEATHER HAS BEEN FORECASTED. KMKG WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CONSIDERING THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.

A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. KGRR AND KMKG ALONG WITH KLAN SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS AREA OF SNOW...AND IFR LOOKS LIKELY. THE
EVENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THEN A BRIEF LULL IN WIND AND WAVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED UNTIL SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ONLY TWO ADVISORIES ARE REMAINING...EACH AT SCOTTVILLE AND NEW
RICHMOND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FRIDAYS
EVENT MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY
IMMEDIATE RUNOFF. WEEKEND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL. SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FIND ITS WAY TO STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
ADVISORIES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH NO NOTABLE REASON FOR CONCERN
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ056-
     064-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KDTX 272301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
601 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION PERSISTS AND SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER SE MI.
THESE FACTORS WILL ALSO CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO BREAK APART...WITH SIGNS
OF THIS ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE. WITH SOME
CLEARING AND A WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT...SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE DURING THE EVENING...EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS ON OR
BEFORE 03Z.

FOR DTW...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE 19Z TO 23Z TIME
FRAME. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW A HALF AN INCH ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING A GENERAL AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...WHICH WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG THIS TROUGH...TWO LAKE ENHANCED
VORTICITY CENTERS HAVE LED TO A CONCENTRATED OF MORE MEANINGFUL SNOW
SHOWERS.

OVER LAKE HURON...ONE SUCH FEATURE BRUSHED THE TIP OF THE THUMB
TODAY AND IS NOW PIVOTING EASTWARD ONTO THE CANADIAN SHORELINE THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL
ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB...ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE NOW SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE...AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST
AS THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD.

EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER IS
WELL DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. IT APPEARS THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL UP SNOW CHANCES THROUGH 00Z AND INCREASE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OR SO AS SOME OF THESE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS CROSS LENAWEE AND POSSIBLY MONROE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT
IN DIMINISHING WINDS...SO CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THESE EXPECTED TRENDS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS SPORADIC SINGLE DIGITS OVER
THE SAGINAW VALLEY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE TROUGH THAT HAS HUNG OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS A MUCH LOWER
AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN...NEARLY ZONAL...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD WEAKER
FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH STRONGER WAVES TRACKING TO THE NORTH
THROUGH CANADA WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT ANY NOTABLE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL HOWEVER HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS SOME WEAKER
SYSTEMS/FRONTS ROLL THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
FROM DAY TO DAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS INTO THE AREA AND
HOVERS FOR A WHILE.

FRIDAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ALBEIT ONLY AN INCH OR 2...AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH LOWER MI. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE MODELS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT JOG NORTH AND A BIT LOWER QPF. OVERALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK BAND OF FGEN SWEEPING THROUGH
AROUND 00Z SAT. THE FRONT DOES FEATURE A LITTLE BETTER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THOUGH ALONG THE 290-295K SURFACES. A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE
BL CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE SYSTEM AND THE MEAGER 0.4-0.5 INCH PWATS
WILL STRUGGLE AT FIRST TO SATURATE IT. REGARDLESS THOUGH...MODELS
ARE STILL IN THE BALL PARK OF 0.05-0.1 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...DECREASING TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. THIS
KEEPS US GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTH OF THE M59
CORRIDOR...WITH THE CHANCE OF UP TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF I69.

A GOOD DEAL OF WAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY AS THE SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND STRONG SW
FLOW COMMENCES. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE ENTIRE COLUMN UP TO
700MB SHOULD RISE ABOVE 0C BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS COMING
IN AROUND 10C. THE COLUMN LOSES ALOT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WHILE
KEEPING THE BL SATURATED ALMOST UP TO ABOUT 850MB TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. THIS MAY LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-SUN OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEKEND AS SFC TEMPS
APPROACH 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND UP TO THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 7C.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISE THE HIGH TO BE AT 1044MB AS IS DRIFTS FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THUS ANY FLUCTUATIONS WILL LEAD TO
NOTABLE TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS USHER A COLDER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RAMP UP FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF THE COLD AIR PUSH BUT WILL
NOT STAY ELEVATED TOO LONG. THIS HAS LEAD TO A MARGINAL GALE EVENT
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN WINDS GUSTING TO LOW END GALE FORCE. A GALE
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE
ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT A RANDOM GUST TO 35 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...BUT THIS
WOULD ONLY OCCUR OVER SHORT TIMEFRAME THUS THE WARNING WILL NOT BE
EXPANDED. THE NORTHWEST FLOW GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS HAS LEAD TO
ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON CLIPPING THE
NEARSHORE ZONES AROUND THE THUMB THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 272301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
601 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION PERSISTS AND SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER SE MI.
THESE FACTORS WILL ALSO CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO BREAK APART...WITH SIGNS
OF THIS ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE. WITH SOME
CLEARING AND A WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT...SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE DURING THE EVENING...EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS ON OR
BEFORE 03Z.

FOR DTW...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE 19Z TO 23Z TIME
FRAME. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW A HALF AN INCH ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING A GENERAL AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...WHICH WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG THIS TROUGH...TWO LAKE ENHANCED
VORTICITY CENTERS HAVE LED TO A CONCENTRATED OF MORE MEANINGFUL SNOW
SHOWERS.

OVER LAKE HURON...ONE SUCH FEATURE BRUSHED THE TIP OF THE THUMB
TODAY AND IS NOW PIVOTING EASTWARD ONTO THE CANADIAN SHORELINE THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL
ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB...ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE NOW SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE...AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST
AS THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD.

EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER IS
WELL DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. IT APPEARS THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL UP SNOW CHANCES THROUGH 00Z AND INCREASE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OR SO AS SOME OF THESE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS CROSS LENAWEE AND POSSIBLY MONROE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT
IN DIMINISHING WINDS...SO CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THESE EXPECTED TRENDS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS SPORADIC SINGLE DIGITS OVER
THE SAGINAW VALLEY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE TROUGH THAT HAS HUNG OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS A MUCH LOWER
AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN...NEARLY ZONAL...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD WEAKER
FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH STRONGER WAVES TRACKING TO THE NORTH
THROUGH CANADA WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT ANY NOTABLE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL HOWEVER HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS SOME WEAKER
SYSTEMS/FRONTS ROLL THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
FROM DAY TO DAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS INTO THE AREA AND
HOVERS FOR A WHILE.

FRIDAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ALBEIT ONLY AN INCH OR 2...AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH LOWER MI. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE MODELS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT JOG NORTH AND A BIT LOWER QPF. OVERALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK BAND OF FGEN SWEEPING THROUGH
AROUND 00Z SAT. THE FRONT DOES FEATURE A LITTLE BETTER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THOUGH ALONG THE 290-295K SURFACES. A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE
BL CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE SYSTEM AND THE MEAGER 0.4-0.5 INCH PWATS
WILL STRUGGLE AT FIRST TO SATURATE IT. REGARDLESS THOUGH...MODELS
ARE STILL IN THE BALL PARK OF 0.05-0.1 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...DECREASING TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. THIS
KEEPS US GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTH OF THE M59
CORRIDOR...WITH THE CHANCE OF UP TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF I69.

A GOOD DEAL OF WAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY AS THE SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND STRONG SW
FLOW COMMENCES. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE ENTIRE COLUMN UP TO
700MB SHOULD RISE ABOVE 0C BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS COMING
IN AROUND 10C. THE COLUMN LOSES ALOT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WHILE
KEEPING THE BL SATURATED ALMOST UP TO ABOUT 850MB TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. THIS MAY LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-SUN OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEKEND AS SFC TEMPS
APPROACH 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND UP TO THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 7C.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISE THE HIGH TO BE AT 1044MB AS IS DRIFTS FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THUS ANY FLUCTUATIONS WILL LEAD TO
NOTABLE TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS USHER A COLDER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RAMP UP FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF THE COLD AIR PUSH BUT WILL
NOT STAY ELEVATED TOO LONG. THIS HAS LEAD TO A MARGINAL GALE EVENT
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN WINDS GUSTING TO LOW END GALE FORCE. A GALE
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE
ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT A RANDOM GUST TO 35 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...BUT THIS
WOULD ONLY OCCUR OVER SHORT TIMEFRAME THUS THE WARNING WILL NOT BE
EXPANDED. THE NORTHWEST FLOW GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS HAS LEAD TO
ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON CLIPPING THE
NEARSHORE ZONES AROUND THE THUMB THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KMQT 272138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 272138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KAPX 272105
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
405 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS...EVEN WHERE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE MOST PERSISTENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATO-CU
EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BACKING AND BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SNOW ALONG WITH IT. SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST...LIKELY NOT IMPACTING KAPN UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH EXACT IMPACTS...BUT HAVE TRENDED TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 272105
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
405 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS...EVEN WHERE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE MOST PERSISTENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATO-CU
EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BACKING AND BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SNOW ALONG WITH IT. SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST...LIKELY NOT IMPACTING KAPN UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH EXACT IMPACTS...BUT HAVE TRENDED TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KDTX 272050
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING A GENERAL AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...WHICH WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG THIS TROUGH...TWO LAKE ENHANCED
VORTICITY CENTERS HAVE LED TO A CONCENTRATED OF MORE MEANINGFUL SNOW
SHOWERS.

OVER LAKE HURON...ONE SUCH FEATURE BRUSHED THE TIP OF THE THUMB
TODAY AND IS NOW PIVOTING EASTWARD ONTO THE CANADIAN SHORELINE THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL
ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB...ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE NOW SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE...AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST
AS THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD.

EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER IS
WELL DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. IT APPEARS THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL UP SNOW CHANCES THROUGH 00Z AND INCREASE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OR SO AS SOME OF THESE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS CROSS LENAWEE AND POSSIBLY MONROE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT
IN DIMINISHING WINDS...SO CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THESE EXPECTED TRENDS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS SPORADIC SINGLE DIGITS OVER
THE SAGINAW VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE TROUGH THAT HAS HUNG OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS A MUCH LOWER
AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN...NEARLY ZONAL...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD WEAKER
FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH STRONGER WAVES TRACKING TO THE NORTH
THROUGH CANADA WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT ANY NOTABLE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL HOWEVER HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS SOME WEAKER
SYSTEMS/FRONTS ROLL THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
FROM DAY TO DAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS INTO THE AREA AND
HOVERS FOR A WHILE.

FRIDAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ALBEIT ONLY AN INCH OR 2...AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH LOWER MI. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE MODELS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT JOG NORTH AND A BIT LOWER QPF. OVERALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK BAND OF FGEN SWEEPING THROUGH
AROUND 00Z SAT. THE FRONT DOES FEATURE A LITTLE BETTER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THOUGH ALONG THE 290-295K SURFACES. A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE
BL CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE SYSTEM AND THE MEAGER 0.4-0.5 INCH PWATS
WILL STRUGGLE AT FIRST TO SATURATE IT. REGARDLESS THOUGH...MODELS
ARE STILL IN THE BALL PARK OF 0.05-0.1 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...DECREASING TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. THIS
KEEPS US GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTH OF THE M59
CORRIDOR...WITH THE CHANCE OF UP TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF I69.

A GOOD DEAL OF WAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY AS THE SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND STRONG SW
FLOW COMMENCES. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE ENTIRE COLUMN UP TO
700MB SHOULD RISE ABOVE 0C BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS COMING
IN AROUND 10C. THE COLUMN LOSES ALOT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WHILE
KEEPING THE BL SATURATED ALMOST UP TO ABOUT 850MB TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. THIS MAY LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-SUN OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEKEND AS SFC TEMPS
APPROACH 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND UP TO THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 7C.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISE THE HIGH TO BE AT 1044MB AS IS DRIFTS FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THUS ANY FLUCTUATIONS WILL LEAD TO
NOTABLE TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS USHER A COLDER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RAMP UP FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF THE COLD AIR PUSH BUT WILL
NOT STAY ELEVATED TOO LONG. THIS HAS LEAD TO A MARGINAL GALE EVENT
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN WINDS GUSTING TO LOW END GALE FORCE. A GALE
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE
ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT A RANDOM GUST TO 35 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...BUT THIS
WOULD ONLY OCCUR OVER SHORT TIMEFRAME THUS THE WARNING WILL NOT BE
EXPANDED. THE NORTHWEST FLOW GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS HAS LEAD TO
ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON CLIPPING THE
NEARSHORE ZONES AROUND THE THUMB THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL FOCUS SCATTERED -SHSN/FLURRIES OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL VEER TO 320-330
DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 18-20KT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SCOUR OUT LOWER STRATUS/STRATO-CU WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL CIGS WILL ALREADY BE ON
THE INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF -SN BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ROUGHLY 16Z-20Z FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....99


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 272050
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING A GENERAL AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...WHICH WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG THIS TROUGH...TWO LAKE ENHANCED
VORTICITY CENTERS HAVE LED TO A CONCENTRATED OF MORE MEANINGFUL SNOW
SHOWERS.

OVER LAKE HURON...ONE SUCH FEATURE BRUSHED THE TIP OF THE THUMB
TODAY AND IS NOW PIVOTING EASTWARD ONTO THE CANADIAN SHORELINE THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL
ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB...ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE NOW SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE...AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST
AS THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD.

EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER IS
WELL DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. IT APPEARS THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL UP SNOW CHANCES THROUGH 00Z AND INCREASE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OR SO AS SOME OF THESE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS CROSS LENAWEE AND POSSIBLY MONROE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT
IN DIMINISHING WINDS...SO CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THESE EXPECTED TRENDS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS SPORADIC SINGLE DIGITS OVER
THE SAGINAW VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE TROUGH THAT HAS HUNG OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS A MUCH LOWER
AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN...NEARLY ZONAL...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD WEAKER
FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH STRONGER WAVES TRACKING TO THE NORTH
THROUGH CANADA WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT ANY NOTABLE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL HOWEVER HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS SOME WEAKER
SYSTEMS/FRONTS ROLL THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
FROM DAY TO DAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS INTO THE AREA AND
HOVERS FOR A WHILE.

FRIDAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ALBEIT ONLY AN INCH OR 2...AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH LOWER MI. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE MODELS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT JOG NORTH AND A BIT LOWER QPF. OVERALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK BAND OF FGEN SWEEPING THROUGH
AROUND 00Z SAT. THE FRONT DOES FEATURE A LITTLE BETTER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THOUGH ALONG THE 290-295K SURFACES. A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE
BL CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE SYSTEM AND THE MEAGER 0.4-0.5 INCH PWATS
WILL STRUGGLE AT FIRST TO SATURATE IT. REGARDLESS THOUGH...MODELS
ARE STILL IN THE BALL PARK OF 0.05-0.1 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...DECREASING TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. THIS
KEEPS US GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTH OF THE M59
CORRIDOR...WITH THE CHANCE OF UP TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF I69.

A GOOD DEAL OF WAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY AS THE SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND STRONG SW
FLOW COMMENCES. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE ENTIRE COLUMN UP TO
700MB SHOULD RISE ABOVE 0C BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS COMING
IN AROUND 10C. THE COLUMN LOSES ALOT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WHILE
KEEPING THE BL SATURATED ALMOST UP TO ABOUT 850MB TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. THIS MAY LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-SUN OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEKEND AS SFC TEMPS
APPROACH 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND UP TO THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 7C.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISE THE HIGH TO BE AT 1044MB AS IS DRIFTS FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THUS ANY FLUCTUATIONS WILL LEAD TO
NOTABLE TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS USHER A COLDER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RAMP UP FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF THE COLD AIR PUSH BUT WILL
NOT STAY ELEVATED TOO LONG. THIS HAS LEAD TO A MARGINAL GALE EVENT
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN WINDS GUSTING TO LOW END GALE FORCE. A GALE
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE
ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT A RANDOM GUST TO 35 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...BUT THIS
WOULD ONLY OCCUR OVER SHORT TIMEFRAME THUS THE WARNING WILL NOT BE
EXPANDED. THE NORTHWEST FLOW GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS HAS LEAD TO
ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON CLIPPING THE
NEARSHORE ZONES AROUND THE THUMB THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL FOCUS SCATTERED -SHSN/FLURRIES OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL VEER TO 320-330
DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 18-20KT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SCOUR OUT LOWER STRATUS/STRATO-CU WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL CIGS WILL ALREADY BE ON
THE INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF -SN BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ROUGHLY 16Z-20Z FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....99


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 272041
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 272041
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 272041
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 272041
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 272024
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER THREE
INCHES BUT MAY STILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT HAS OVERACHIEVED TODAY WITH LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES WHERE HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE PERSISTED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SFC TROUGH SO WILL CANCEL THE NRN PORTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. HOWEVER EVEN HERE THE TREND SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.

WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
BECOMES QUITE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY
SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF THREAT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SFC TEMPS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOOKING QUIET AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ON MONDAY - TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHOT ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY AS PER GFS/FIM BUT THE ECMWF IS ALL HIGH PRESSURE AT THIS
POINT.

TIMING OF FIRST COLD FRONT STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUR NEAR 50 DEGREE READINGS AT THIS POINT.
THERE WILL BE GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
DEEPER FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT DOES NOT REALLY COUPLE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE UNTIL THE FRONT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN.

OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS VERY LIMITED AS COLD AIR
MOVES BACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE VERY
DIFFLUENT AS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND ALOFT WE
REMAIN MORE OR LESS ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF JET AXIS. THIS WILL ALL
RESULT IN VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A LACK OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOLLOWED BY SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKING LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND
WEEK OF DECEMBER PER FIM/GFS PARA/ECWMF.  GFS/ECMWF LOOKING WARM THE
WHOLE WEEK BUT FIM BRINGS ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY (DEC 8TH).  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THAT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST BET. ALL NWP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERALL DRY PATTERN AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

HEAVY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LIFR VIS / CIGS MAINLY ALONG
LAKESHORE FROM JUST WEST OF KMKG AND THEN ONSHORE BETWEEN KLWA AND
KAZO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. CURRENT TOPS 10-15 KFT WILL TREND TOWARDS 5-10 KFT BY 00Z.

ELSEWHERE LOOKING AT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VIS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SNOWSHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY TOO WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ICING POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND IN CLOUD ICING BELOW 10 KFT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THEN A BRIEF LULL IN WIND AND WAVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED UNTIL SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ONLY TWO ADVISORIES ARE REMAINING...EACH AT SCOTTVILLE AND NEW
RICHMOND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FRIDAYS
EVENT MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY
IMMEDIATE RUNOFF. WEEKEND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL. SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FIND ITS WAY TO STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
ADVISORIES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH NO NOTABLE REASON FOR CONCERN
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ056-064-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE










000
FXUS63 KGRR 272024
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER THREE
INCHES BUT MAY STILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT HAS OVERACHIEVED TODAY WITH LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES WHERE HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE PERSISTED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SFC TROUGH SO WILL CANCEL THE NRN PORTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. HOWEVER EVEN HERE THE TREND SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.

WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
BECOMES QUITE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY
SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF THREAT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SFC TEMPS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOOKING QUIET AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ON MONDAY - TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHOT ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY AS PER GFS/FIM BUT THE ECMWF IS ALL HIGH PRESSURE AT THIS
POINT.

TIMING OF FIRST COLD FRONT STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUR NEAR 50 DEGREE READINGS AT THIS POINT.
THERE WILL BE GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
DEEPER FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT DOES NOT REALLY COUPLE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE UNTIL THE FRONT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN.

OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS VERY LIMITED AS COLD AIR
MOVES BACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE VERY
DIFFLUENT AS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND ALOFT WE
REMAIN MORE OR LESS ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF JET AXIS. THIS WILL ALL
RESULT IN VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A LACK OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOLLOWED BY SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKING LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND
WEEK OF DECEMBER PER FIM/GFS PARA/ECWMF.  GFS/ECMWF LOOKING WARM THE
WHOLE WEEK BUT FIM BRINGS ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY (DEC 8TH).  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THAT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST BET. ALL NWP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERALL DRY PATTERN AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

HEAVY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LIFR VIS / CIGS MAINLY ALONG
LAKESHORE FROM JUST WEST OF KMKG AND THEN ONSHORE BETWEEN KLWA AND
KAZO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. CURRENT TOPS 10-15 KFT WILL TREND TOWARDS 5-10 KFT BY 00Z.

ELSEWHERE LOOKING AT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VIS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SNOWSHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY TOO WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ICING POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND IN CLOUD ICING BELOW 10 KFT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THEN A BRIEF LULL IN WIND AND WAVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED UNTIL SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ONLY TWO ADVISORIES ARE REMAINING...EACH AT SCOTTVILLE AND NEW
RICHMOND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FRIDAYS
EVENT MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY
IMMEDIATE RUNOFF. WEEKEND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL. SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FIND ITS WAY TO STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
ADVISORIES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH NO NOTABLE REASON FOR CONCERN
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ056-064-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE










000
FXUS63 KGRR 272024
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER THREE
INCHES BUT MAY STILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT HAS OVERACHIEVED TODAY WITH LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES WHERE HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE PERSISTED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SFC TROUGH SO WILL CANCEL THE NRN PORTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. HOWEVER EVEN HERE THE TREND SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.

WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
BECOMES QUITE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY
SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF THREAT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SFC TEMPS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOOKING QUIET AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ON MONDAY - TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHOT ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY AS PER GFS/FIM BUT THE ECMWF IS ALL HIGH PRESSURE AT THIS
POINT.

TIMING OF FIRST COLD FRONT STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUR NEAR 50 DEGREE READINGS AT THIS POINT.
THERE WILL BE GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
DEEPER FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT DOES NOT REALLY COUPLE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE UNTIL THE FRONT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN.

OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS VERY LIMITED AS COLD AIR
MOVES BACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE VERY
DIFFLUENT AS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND ALOFT WE
REMAIN MORE OR LESS ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF JET AXIS. THIS WILL ALL
RESULT IN VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A LACK OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOLLOWED BY SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKING LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND
WEEK OF DECEMBER PER FIM/GFS PARA/ECWMF.  GFS/ECMWF LOOKING WARM THE
WHOLE WEEK BUT FIM BRINGS ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY (DEC 8TH).  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THAT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST BET. ALL NWP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERALL DRY PATTERN AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

HEAVY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LIFR VIS / CIGS MAINLY ALONG
LAKESHORE FROM JUST WEST OF KMKG AND THEN ONSHORE BETWEEN KLWA AND
KAZO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. CURRENT TOPS 10-15 KFT WILL TREND TOWARDS 5-10 KFT BY 00Z.

ELSEWHERE LOOKING AT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VIS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SNOWSHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY TOO WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ICING POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND IN CLOUD ICING BELOW 10 KFT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THEN A BRIEF LULL IN WIND AND WAVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED UNTIL SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ONLY TWO ADVISORIES ARE REMAINING...EACH AT SCOTTVILLE AND NEW
RICHMOND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FRIDAYS
EVENT MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY
IMMEDIATE RUNOFF. WEEKEND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL. SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FIND ITS WAY TO STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
ADVISORIES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH NO NOTABLE REASON FOR CONCERN
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ056-064-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE










000
FXUS63 KGRR 272024
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER THREE
INCHES BUT MAY STILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT HAS OVERACHIEVED TODAY WITH LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES WHERE HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE PERSISTED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SFC TROUGH SO WILL CANCEL THE NRN PORTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. HOWEVER EVEN HERE THE TREND SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.

WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
BECOMES QUITE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY
SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF THREAT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SFC TEMPS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOOKING QUIET AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ON MONDAY - TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHOT ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY AS PER GFS/FIM BUT THE ECMWF IS ALL HIGH PRESSURE AT THIS
POINT.

TIMING OF FIRST COLD FRONT STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUR NEAR 50 DEGREE READINGS AT THIS POINT.
THERE WILL BE GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
DEEPER FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT DOES NOT REALLY COUPLE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE UNTIL THE FRONT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN.

OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS VERY LIMITED AS COLD AIR
MOVES BACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE VERY
DIFFLUENT AS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND ALOFT WE
REMAIN MORE OR LESS ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF JET AXIS. THIS WILL ALL
RESULT IN VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A LACK OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT FOLLOWED BY SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKING LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND
WEEK OF DECEMBER PER FIM/GFS PARA/ECWMF.  GFS/ECMWF LOOKING WARM THE
WHOLE WEEK BUT FIM BRINGS ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY (DEC 8TH).  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THAT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST BET. ALL NWP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERALL DRY PATTERN AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

HEAVY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LIFR VIS / CIGS MAINLY ALONG
LAKESHORE FROM JUST WEST OF KMKG AND THEN ONSHORE BETWEEN KLWA AND
KAZO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. CURRENT TOPS 10-15 KFT WILL TREND TOWARDS 5-10 KFT BY 00Z.

ELSEWHERE LOOKING AT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VIS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SNOWSHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY TOO WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ICING POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND IN CLOUD ICING BELOW 10 KFT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THEN A BRIEF LULL IN WIND AND WAVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED UNTIL SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ONLY TWO ADVISORIES ARE REMAINING...EACH AT SCOTTVILLE AND NEW
RICHMOND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FRIDAYS
EVENT MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY
IMMEDIATE RUNOFF. WEEKEND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL. SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FIND ITS WAY TO STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
ADVISORIES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH NO NOTABLE REASON FOR CONCERN
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ056-064-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE










000
FXUS63 KGRR 271956
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MESO-LOW MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN
LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BELOW ONE MILE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE COAST FROM LUDINGTON TO MUSKEGON WITH A RECENT NEW SNOW REPORT
OF NEAR 4 INCHES AT LUDINGTON. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED TO RAISE
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST.

INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 12K FT PER GRR VWP BUT ARE
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE
HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES AS MESO-LOW HEADS TOWARD
KALAMAZOO...FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

HEAVY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LIFR VIS / CIGS MAINLY ALONG
LAKESHORE FROM JUST WEST OF KMKG AND THEN ONSHORE BETWEEN KLWA AND
KAZO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. CURRENT TOPS 10-15 KFT WILL TREND TOWARDS 5-10 KFT BY 00Z.

ELSEWHERE LOOKING AT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VIS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SNOWSHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY TOO WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ICING POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND IN CLOUD ICING BELOW 10 KFT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...COBB
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 271956
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MESO-LOW MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN
LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BELOW ONE MILE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE COAST FROM LUDINGTON TO MUSKEGON WITH A RECENT NEW SNOW REPORT
OF NEAR 4 INCHES AT LUDINGTON. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED TO RAISE
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST.

INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 12K FT PER GRR VWP BUT ARE
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE
HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES AS MESO-LOW HEADS TOWARD
KALAMAZOO...FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

HEAVY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LIFR VIS / CIGS MAINLY ALONG
LAKESHORE FROM JUST WEST OF KMKG AND THEN ONSHORE BETWEEN KLWA AND
KAZO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. CURRENT TOPS 10-15 KFT WILL TREND TOWARDS 5-10 KFT BY 00Z.

ELSEWHERE LOOKING AT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VIS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SNOWSHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY TOO WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ICING POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND IN CLOUD ICING BELOW 10 KFT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...COBB
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 271956
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MESO-LOW MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN
LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BELOW ONE MILE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE COAST FROM LUDINGTON TO MUSKEGON WITH A RECENT NEW SNOW REPORT
OF NEAR 4 INCHES AT LUDINGTON. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED TO RAISE
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST.

INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 12K FT PER GRR VWP BUT ARE
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE
HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES AS MESO-LOW HEADS TOWARD
KALAMAZOO...FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

HEAVY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LIFR VIS / CIGS MAINLY ALONG
LAKESHORE FROM JUST WEST OF KMKG AND THEN ONSHORE BETWEEN KLWA AND
KAZO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. CURRENT TOPS 10-15 KFT WILL TREND TOWARDS 5-10 KFT BY 00Z.

ELSEWHERE LOOKING AT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VIS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SNOWSHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY TOO WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ICING POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND IN CLOUD ICING BELOW 10 KFT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...COBB
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 271956
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MESO-LOW MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN
LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BELOW ONE MILE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE COAST FROM LUDINGTON TO MUSKEGON WITH A RECENT NEW SNOW REPORT
OF NEAR 4 INCHES AT LUDINGTON. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED TO RAISE
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST.

INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 12K FT PER GRR VWP BUT ARE
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE
HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES AS MESO-LOW HEADS TOWARD
KALAMAZOO...FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

HEAVY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LIFR VIS / CIGS MAINLY ALONG
LAKESHORE FROM JUST WEST OF KMKG AND THEN ONSHORE BETWEEN KLWA AND
KAZO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. CURRENT TOPS 10-15 KFT WILL TREND TOWARDS 5-10 KFT BY 00Z.

ELSEWHERE LOOKING AT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VIS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SNOWSHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY TOO WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ICING POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND IN CLOUD ICING BELOW 10 KFT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...COBB
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS









000
FXUS63 KMQT 271740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS






000
FXUS63 KAPX 271723
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1223 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OVERHEAD...WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT LEADING THE CHARGE EXITING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON.
LAKE HURON INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING GETTING SHOVED OFFSHORE...WITH
TIGHT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOW SAFELY OFF THE COAST VIA
LOCAL RADAR AND OBSERVATION ANALYSIS. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW ALSO GETTING SET TO PASS OFFSHORE...ALLOWING AN EARLY
CANCELLATION OF ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALPENA AND
ALCONA COUNTIES. TREND BECOMING ONE OF MUCH MORE FAMILIAR NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS H8 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS. SHARP POST-WAVE DRYING WELL
EVIDENT...AND WILL KEEP SNOW INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROTTLED BACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THAT
SAID...MOISTURE EXTENDED RIGHT THROUGH PRIME DGZ WILL ACCOUNT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO WHERE BEST
BANDING RESIDES. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS...EVEN WHERE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE MOST PERSISTENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATO-CU
EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BACKING AND BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SNOW ALONG WITH IT. SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST...LIKELY NOT IMPACTING KAPN UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH EXACT IMPACTS...BUT HAVE TRENDED TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KAPX 271723
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1223 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OVERHEAD...WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT LEADING THE CHARGE EXITING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON.
LAKE HURON INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING GETTING SHOVED OFFSHORE...WITH
TIGHT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOW SAFELY OFF THE COAST VIA
LOCAL RADAR AND OBSERVATION ANALYSIS. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW ALSO GETTING SET TO PASS OFFSHORE...ALLOWING AN EARLY
CANCELLATION OF ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALPENA AND
ALCONA COUNTIES. TREND BECOMING ONE OF MUCH MORE FAMILIAR NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS H8 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS. SHARP POST-WAVE DRYING WELL
EVIDENT...AND WILL KEEP SNOW INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROTTLED BACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THAT
SAID...MOISTURE EXTENDED RIGHT THROUGH PRIME DGZ WILL ACCOUNT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO WHERE BEST
BANDING RESIDES. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS...EVEN WHERE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE MOST PERSISTENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATO-CU
EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BACKING AND BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SNOW ALONG WITH IT. SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST...LIKELY NOT IMPACTING KAPN UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH EXACT IMPACTS...BUT HAVE TRENDED TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271705
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1205 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL FOCUS SCATTERED -SHSN/FLURRIES OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL VEER TO 320-330
DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 18-20KT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SCOUR OUT LOWER STRATUS/STRATO-CU WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL CIGS WILL ALREADY BE ON
THE INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF -SN BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ROUGHLY 16Z-20Z FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST RESPONSE NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /2SM OR GREATER/.  DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...A LAKE MODIFIED RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PLUME LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION 15Z TO 21Z.
WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GREATER COVERAGE /SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS/...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
GREATER FORCING...MOISTURE QUALITY /1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/ AND
OVERALL DURATION.  MINOR ACCUMULATION AT HALF INCH OR LESS.  A WELL
DEFINED THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE HURON AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST HURON
COUNTY SHORELINE. THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE TO CLIP THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS.  LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE
SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZED BANDS JUST OFF SHORE...BUT A TREND WORTH
MONITORING GOING FORWARD TODAY.

THE EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THAT NOTED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL AGAIN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S
UNDER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS.  COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
POST-FRONTAL STARTING THIS EVENING.  850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -12C RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL SUB-INVERSION MOIST LAYER.  THIS
WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSION TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...A PERIOD OF
MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE JUST MOVED ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER
SAMPLING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION FORECASTED SOUTH OF M-59...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS A DEEP DRY LAYER IS
IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS 850-700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT (850-
700 MB THETA-E) INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER STEADY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT A VERY WELL DEFINED SURGE EVIDENT (BEST
SEMBLANCE 0-4Z SATURDAY)...DRAWING CONCERN IN THE LIFT AND PROSPECTS
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
250 MB JET OF 100+ KNOTS THAN THE NAM. THE 00Z EURO SEEMS TO OFFER
UP A NICE COMPROMISE...AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE QUICK SHOT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL RAISE
POPS...LIFTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 TO LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY/EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

BIG WARM-UP ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO 10 C ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S LIKELY. DEW
PTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
OVER THE COLD GROUND OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL BE CARRYING LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS (700 MB) WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY.

MARINE...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING AS THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WITH
ENHANCED LAKE HURON TROUGHING...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES
APPEARS LIKELY...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS...CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LEADING TO HIGH
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INNER SAGINAW BAY.  A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE MILDER AIR AND GREATER
STABILITY ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271705
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1205 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL FOCUS SCATTERED -SHSN/FLURRIES OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL VEER TO 320-330
DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 18-20KT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SCOUR OUT LOWER STRATUS/STRATO-CU WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL CIGS WILL ALREADY BE ON
THE INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF -SN BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ROUGHLY 16Z-20Z FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST RESPONSE NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /2SM OR GREATER/.  DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...A LAKE MODIFIED RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PLUME LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION 15Z TO 21Z.
WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GREATER COVERAGE /SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS/...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
GREATER FORCING...MOISTURE QUALITY /1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/ AND
OVERALL DURATION.  MINOR ACCUMULATION AT HALF INCH OR LESS.  A WELL
DEFINED THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE HURON AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST HURON
COUNTY SHORELINE. THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE TO CLIP THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS.  LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE
SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZED BANDS JUST OFF SHORE...BUT A TREND WORTH
MONITORING GOING FORWARD TODAY.

THE EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THAT NOTED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL AGAIN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S
UNDER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS.  COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
POST-FRONTAL STARTING THIS EVENING.  850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -12C RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL SUB-INVERSION MOIST LAYER.  THIS
WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSION TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...A PERIOD OF
MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE JUST MOVED ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER
SAMPLING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION FORECASTED SOUTH OF M-59...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS A DEEP DRY LAYER IS
IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS 850-700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT (850-
700 MB THETA-E) INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER STEADY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT A VERY WELL DEFINED SURGE EVIDENT (BEST
SEMBLANCE 0-4Z SATURDAY)...DRAWING CONCERN IN THE LIFT AND PROSPECTS
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
250 MB JET OF 100+ KNOTS THAN THE NAM. THE 00Z EURO SEEMS TO OFFER
UP A NICE COMPROMISE...AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE QUICK SHOT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL RAISE
POPS...LIFTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 TO LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY/EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

BIG WARM-UP ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO 10 C ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S LIKELY. DEW
PTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
OVER THE COLD GROUND OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL BE CARRYING LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS (700 MB) WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY.

MARINE...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING AS THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WITH
ENHANCED LAKE HURON TROUGHING...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES
APPEARS LIKELY...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS...CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LEADING TO HIGH
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INNER SAGINAW BAY.  A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE MILDER AIR AND GREATER
STABILITY ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 271552
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1052 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MESO-LOW MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN
LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BELOW ONE MILE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE COAST FROM LUDINGTON TO MUSKEGON WITH A RECENT NEW SNOW REPORT
OF NEAR 4 INCHES AT LUDINGTON. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED TO RAISE
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST.

INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 12K FT PER GRR VWP BUT ARE
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE
HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES AS MESO-LOW HEADS TOWARD
KALAMAZOO...FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING AREAS OF IFR ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR AND MVFR ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS






000
FXUS63 KGRR 271552
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1052 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MESO-LOW MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN
LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BELOW ONE MILE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE COAST FROM LUDINGTON TO MUSKEGON WITH A RECENT NEW SNOW REPORT
OF NEAR 4 INCHES AT LUDINGTON. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED TO RAISE
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST.

INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 12K FT PER GRR VWP BUT ARE
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE
HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES AS MESO-LOW HEADS TOWARD
KALAMAZOO...FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING AREAS OF IFR ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR AND MVFR ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KAPX 271549
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1049 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OVERHEAD...WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT LEADING THE CHARGE EXITING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON.
LAKE HURON INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING GETTING SHOVED OFFSHORE...WITH
TIGHT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOW SAFELY OFF THE COAST VIA
LOCAL RADAR AND OBSERVATION ANALYSIS. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW ALSO GETTING SET TO PASS OFFSHORE...ALLOWING AN EARLY
CANCELLATION OF ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALPENA AND
ALCONA COUNTIES. TREND BECOMING ONE OF MUCH MORE FAMILIAR NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS H8 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS. SHARP POST-WAVE DRYING WELL
EVIDENT...AND WILL KEEP SNOW INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROTTLED BACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THAT
SAID...MOISTURE EXTENDED RIGHT THROUGH PRIME DGZ WILL ACCOUNT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO WHERE BEST
BANDING RESIDES. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
TURNING WINDS INTO THE NW AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY FOR THE DAY
WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY BACK SW-W BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEATHER-WISE...LIGHT SNOW AND LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL/APN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SNOW BELTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RETURN TO LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271549
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1049 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OVERHEAD...WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT LEADING THE CHARGE EXITING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON.
LAKE HURON INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING GETTING SHOVED OFFSHORE...WITH
TIGHT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOW SAFELY OFF THE COAST VIA
LOCAL RADAR AND OBSERVATION ANALYSIS. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW ALSO GETTING SET TO PASS OFFSHORE...ALLOWING AN EARLY
CANCELLATION OF ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALPENA AND
ALCONA COUNTIES. TREND BECOMING ONE OF MUCH MORE FAMILIAR NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS H8 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS. SHARP POST-WAVE DRYING WELL
EVIDENT...AND WILL KEEP SNOW INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROTTLED BACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THAT
SAID...MOISTURE EXTENDED RIGHT THROUGH PRIME DGZ WILL ACCOUNT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO WHERE BEST
BANDING RESIDES. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
TURNING WINDS INTO THE NW AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY FOR THE DAY
WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY BACK SW-W BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEATHER-WISE...LIGHT SNOW AND LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL/APN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SNOW BELTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RETURN TO LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271549
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1049 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OVERHEAD...WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT LEADING THE CHARGE EXITING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON.
LAKE HURON INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING GETTING SHOVED OFFSHORE...WITH
TIGHT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOW SAFELY OFF THE COAST VIA
LOCAL RADAR AND OBSERVATION ANALYSIS. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW ALSO GETTING SET TO PASS OFFSHORE...ALLOWING AN EARLY
CANCELLATION OF ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALPENA AND
ALCONA COUNTIES. TREND BECOMING ONE OF MUCH MORE FAMILIAR NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS H8 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS. SHARP POST-WAVE DRYING WELL
EVIDENT...AND WILL KEEP SNOW INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROTTLED BACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THAT
SAID...MOISTURE EXTENDED RIGHT THROUGH PRIME DGZ WILL ACCOUNT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO WHERE BEST
BANDING RESIDES. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
TURNING WINDS INTO THE NW AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY FOR THE DAY
WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY BACK SW-W BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEATHER-WISE...LIGHT SNOW AND LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL/APN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SNOW BELTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RETURN TO LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271549
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1049 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OVERHEAD...WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT LEADING THE CHARGE EXITING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON.
LAKE HURON INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING GETTING SHOVED OFFSHORE...WITH
TIGHT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOW SAFELY OFF THE COAST VIA
LOCAL RADAR AND OBSERVATION ANALYSIS. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW ALSO GETTING SET TO PASS OFFSHORE...ALLOWING AN EARLY
CANCELLATION OF ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALPENA AND
ALCONA COUNTIES. TREND BECOMING ONE OF MUCH MORE FAMILIAR NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS H8 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS. SHARP POST-WAVE DRYING WELL
EVIDENT...AND WILL KEEP SNOW INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROTTLED BACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THAT
SAID...MOISTURE EXTENDED RIGHT THROUGH PRIME DGZ WILL ACCOUNT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO WHERE BEST
BANDING RESIDES. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
TURNING WINDS INTO THE NW AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY FOR THE DAY
WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY BACK SW-W BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEATHER-WISE...LIGHT SNOW AND LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL/APN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SNOW BELTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RETURN TO LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KGRR 271200
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING AREAS OF IFR ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR AND MVFR ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271151
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
651 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TODAY AT TAF SITES. WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N
WIND...IWD WL SEE A LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING.
AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER...THE LLVL WINDS WL
BACK TOWARD THE WNW EARLY THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD. MORE UPSLOPE WRLY WIND
AT CMX BY THIS AFTERNOON MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE MUCH OF THIS EVENING. NW WINDS BACKING TO S-SW
TONIGHT AT KSAW SHOULD CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THERE THRU THE
PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271151
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
651 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TODAY AT TAF SITES. WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N
WIND...IWD WL SEE A LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING.
AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER...THE LLVL WINDS WL
BACK TOWARD THE WNW EARLY THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD. MORE UPSLOPE WRLY WIND
AT CMX BY THIS AFTERNOON MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE MUCH OF THIS EVENING. NW WINDS BACKING TO S-SW
TONIGHT AT KSAW SHOULD CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THERE THRU THE
PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KAPX 271144
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
TURNING WINDS INTO THE NW AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY FOR THE DAY
WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY BACK SW-W BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEATHER-WISE...LIGHT SNOW AND LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL/APN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SNOW BELTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RETURN TO LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ024-
     030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271144
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
TURNING WINDS INTO THE NW AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY FOR THE DAY
WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY BACK SW-W BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEATHER-WISE...LIGHT SNOW AND LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL/APN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SNOW BELTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RETURN TO LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ024-
     030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KDTX 271102
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
602 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE VFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION.  THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BOOST
TO THE EXISTING MOIST LAYER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD.  LIMITED
INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS MINOR...BUT SOME
INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE /2 TO 5 SM/.
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.  DRIER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
REDUCTION IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST RESPONSE NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /2SM OR GREATER/.  DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...A LAKE MODIFIED RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PLUME LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION 15Z TO 21Z.
WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GREATER COVERAGE /SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS/...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
GREATER FORCING...MOISTURE QUALITY /1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/ AND
OVERALL DURATION.  MINOR ACCUMULATION AT HALF INCH OR LESS.  A WELL
DEFINED THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE HURON AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST HURON
COUNTY SHORELINE. THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE TO CLIP THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS.  LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE
SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZED BANDS JUST OFF SHORE...BUT A TREND WORTH
MONITORING GOING FORWARD TODAY.

THE EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THAT NOTED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL AGAIN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S
UNDER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS.  COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
POST-FRONTAL STARTING THIS EVENING.  850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -12C RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL SUB-INVERSION MOIST LAYER.  THIS
WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSION TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...A PERIOD OF
MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE JUST MOVED ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER
SAMPLING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION FORECASTED SOUTH OF M-59...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS A DEEP DRY LAYER IS
IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS 850-700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT (850-
700 MB THETA-E) INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER STEADY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT A VERY WELL DEFINED SURGE EVIDENT (BEST
SEMBLANCE 0-4Z SATURDAY)...DRAWING CONCERN IN THE LIFT AND PROSPECTS
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
250 MB JET OF 100+ KNOTS THAN THE NAM. THE 00Z EURO SEEMS TO OFFER
UP A NICE COMPROMISE...AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE QUICK SHOT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL RAISE
POPS...LIFTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 TO LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY/EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

BIG WARM-UP ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO 10 C ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S LIKELY. DEW
PTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
OVER THE COLD GROUND OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL BE CARRYING LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS (700 MB) WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY.

MARINE...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING AS THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WITH
ENHANCED LAKE HURON TROUGHING...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES
APPEARS LIKELY...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS...CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LEADING TO HIGH
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INNER SAGINAW BAY.  A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE MILDER AIR AND GREATER
STABILITY ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271102
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
602 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE VFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION.  THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BOOST
TO THE EXISTING MOIST LAYER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD.  LIMITED
INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS MINOR...BUT SOME
INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE /2 TO 5 SM/.
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.  DRIER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
REDUCTION IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST RESPONSE NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /2SM OR GREATER/.  DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...A LAKE MODIFIED RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PLUME LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION 15Z TO 21Z.
WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GREATER COVERAGE /SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS/...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
GREATER FORCING...MOISTURE QUALITY /1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/ AND
OVERALL DURATION.  MINOR ACCUMULATION AT HALF INCH OR LESS.  A WELL
DEFINED THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE HURON AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST HURON
COUNTY SHORELINE. THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE TO CLIP THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS.  LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE
SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZED BANDS JUST OFF SHORE...BUT A TREND WORTH
MONITORING GOING FORWARD TODAY.

THE EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THAT NOTED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL AGAIN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S
UNDER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS.  COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
POST-FRONTAL STARTING THIS EVENING.  850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -12C RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL SUB-INVERSION MOIST LAYER.  THIS
WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSION TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...A PERIOD OF
MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE JUST MOVED ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER
SAMPLING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION FORECASTED SOUTH OF M-59...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS A DEEP DRY LAYER IS
IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS 850-700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT (850-
700 MB THETA-E) INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER STEADY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT A VERY WELL DEFINED SURGE EVIDENT (BEST
SEMBLANCE 0-4Z SATURDAY)...DRAWING CONCERN IN THE LIFT AND PROSPECTS
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
250 MB JET OF 100+ KNOTS THAN THE NAM. THE 00Z EURO SEEMS TO OFFER
UP A NICE COMPROMISE...AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE QUICK SHOT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL RAISE
POPS...LIFTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 TO LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY/EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

BIG WARM-UP ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO 10 C ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S LIKELY. DEW
PTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
OVER THE COLD GROUND OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL BE CARRYING LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS (700 MB) WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY.

MARINE...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING AS THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WITH
ENHANCED LAKE HURON TROUGHING...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES
APPEARS LIKELY...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS...CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LEADING TO HIGH
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INNER SAGINAW BAY.  A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE MILDER AIR AND GREATER
STABILITY ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271102
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
602 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE VFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION.  THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BOOST
TO THE EXISTING MOIST LAYER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD.  LIMITED
INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS MINOR...BUT SOME
INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE /2 TO 5 SM/.
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.  DRIER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
REDUCTION IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST RESPONSE NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /2SM OR GREATER/.  DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...A LAKE MODIFIED RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PLUME LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION 15Z TO 21Z.
WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GREATER COVERAGE /SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS/...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
GREATER FORCING...MOISTURE QUALITY /1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/ AND
OVERALL DURATION.  MINOR ACCUMULATION AT HALF INCH OR LESS.  A WELL
DEFINED THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE HURON AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST HURON
COUNTY SHORELINE. THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE TO CLIP THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS.  LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE
SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZED BANDS JUST OFF SHORE...BUT A TREND WORTH
MONITORING GOING FORWARD TODAY.

THE EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THAT NOTED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL AGAIN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S
UNDER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS.  COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
POST-FRONTAL STARTING THIS EVENING.  850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -12C RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL SUB-INVERSION MOIST LAYER.  THIS
WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSION TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...A PERIOD OF
MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE JUST MOVED ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER
SAMPLING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION FORECASTED SOUTH OF M-59...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS A DEEP DRY LAYER IS
IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS 850-700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT (850-
700 MB THETA-E) INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER STEADY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT A VERY WELL DEFINED SURGE EVIDENT (BEST
SEMBLANCE 0-4Z SATURDAY)...DRAWING CONCERN IN THE LIFT AND PROSPECTS
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
250 MB JET OF 100+ KNOTS THAN THE NAM. THE 00Z EURO SEEMS TO OFFER
UP A NICE COMPROMISE...AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE QUICK SHOT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL RAISE
POPS...LIFTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 TO LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY/EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

BIG WARM-UP ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO 10 C ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S LIKELY. DEW
PTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
OVER THE COLD GROUND OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL BE CARRYING LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS (700 MB) WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY.

MARINE...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING AS THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WITH
ENHANCED LAKE HURON TROUGHING...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES
APPEARS LIKELY...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS...CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LEADING TO HIGH
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INNER SAGINAW BAY.  A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE MILDER AIR AND GREATER
STABILITY ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271102
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
602 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE VFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION.  THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BOOST
TO THE EXISTING MOIST LAYER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD.  LIMITED
INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS MINOR...BUT SOME
INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE /2 TO 5 SM/.
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.  DRIER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
REDUCTION IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST RESPONSE NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /2SM OR GREATER/.  DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...A LAKE MODIFIED RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PLUME LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION 15Z TO 21Z.
WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GREATER COVERAGE /SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS/...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
GREATER FORCING...MOISTURE QUALITY /1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/ AND
OVERALL DURATION.  MINOR ACCUMULATION AT HALF INCH OR LESS.  A WELL
DEFINED THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE HURON AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST HURON
COUNTY SHORELINE. THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE TO CLIP THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS.  LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE
SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZED BANDS JUST OFF SHORE...BUT A TREND WORTH
MONITORING GOING FORWARD TODAY.

THE EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THAT NOTED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL AGAIN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S
UNDER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS.  COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
POST-FRONTAL STARTING THIS EVENING.  850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -12C RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL SUB-INVERSION MOIST LAYER.  THIS
WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSION TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...A PERIOD OF
MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE JUST MOVED ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER
SAMPLING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION FORECASTED SOUTH OF M-59...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS A DEEP DRY LAYER IS
IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS 850-700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT (850-
700 MB THETA-E) INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER STEADY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT A VERY WELL DEFINED SURGE EVIDENT (BEST
SEMBLANCE 0-4Z SATURDAY)...DRAWING CONCERN IN THE LIFT AND PROSPECTS
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
250 MB JET OF 100+ KNOTS THAN THE NAM. THE 00Z EURO SEEMS TO OFFER
UP A NICE COMPROMISE...AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE QUICK SHOT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL RAISE
POPS...LIFTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 TO LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY/EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

BIG WARM-UP ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO 10 C ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S LIKELY. DEW
PTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
OVER THE COLD GROUND OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL BE CARRYING LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS (700 MB) WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY.

MARINE...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING AS THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WITH
ENHANCED LAKE HURON TROUGHING...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES
APPEARS LIKELY...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS...CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LEADING TO HIGH
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INNER SAGINAW BAY.  A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE MILDER AIR AND GREATER
STABILITY ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
557 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
557 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 270906
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
406 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SNOW
SPREADS INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW AND STRONG CAA GREATLY INCREASES OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ024-
     030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KDTX 270845
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED MARINE SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST RESPONSE NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /2SM OR GREATER/.  DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...A LAKE MODIFIED RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PLUME LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION 15Z TO 21Z.
WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GREATER COVERAGE /SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS/...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
GREATER FORCING...MOISTURE QUALITY /1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/ AND
OVERALL DURATION.  MINOR ACCUMULATION AT HALF INCH OR LESS.  A WELL
DEFINED THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE HURON AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST HURON
COUNTY SHORELINE. THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE TO CLIP THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS.  LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE
SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZED BANDS JUST OFF SHORE...BUT A TREND WORTH
MONITORING GOING FORWARD TODAY.

THE EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THAT NOTED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL AGAIN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S
UNDER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS.  COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
POST-FRONTAL STARTING THIS EVENING.  850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -12C RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL SUB-INVERSION MOIST LAYER.  THIS
WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSION TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...A PERIOD OF
MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE JUST MOVED ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER
SAMPLING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION FORECASTED SOUTH OF M-59...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS A DEEP DRY LAYER IS
IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS 850-700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT (850-
700 MB THETA-E) INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER STEADY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT A VERY WELL DEFINED SURGE EVIDENT (BEST
SEMBLANCE 0-4Z SATURDAY)...DRAWING CONCERN IN THE LIFT AND PROSPECTS
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
250 MB JET OF 100+ KNOTS THAN THE NAM. THE 00Z EURO SEEMS TO OFFER
UP A NICE COMPROMISE...AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE QUICK SHOT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL RAISE
POPS...LIFTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 TO LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY/EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

BIG WARM-UP ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO 10 C ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S LIKELY. DEW
PTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
OVER THE COLD GROUND OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL BE CARRYING LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS (700 MB) WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING AS THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WITH
ENHANCED LAKE HURON TROUGHING...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES
APPEARS LIKELY...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS...CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LEADING TO HIGH
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INNER SAGINAW BAY.  A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE MILDER AIR AND GREATER
STABILITY ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 270845
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED MARINE SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST RESPONSE NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /2SM OR GREATER/.  DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...A LAKE MODIFIED RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PLUME LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION 15Z TO 21Z.
WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GREATER COVERAGE /SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS/...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
GREATER FORCING...MOISTURE QUALITY /1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/ AND
OVERALL DURATION.  MINOR ACCUMULATION AT HALF INCH OR LESS.  A WELL
DEFINED THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE HURON AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST HURON
COUNTY SHORELINE. THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE TO CLIP THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS.  LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE
SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZED BANDS JUST OFF SHORE...BUT A TREND WORTH
MONITORING GOING FORWARD TODAY.

THE EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THAT NOTED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL AGAIN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S
UNDER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS.  COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
POST-FRONTAL STARTING THIS EVENING.  850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -12C RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL SUB-INVERSION MOIST LAYER.  THIS
WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSION TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...A PERIOD OF
MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE JUST MOVED ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER
SAMPLING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION FORECASTED SOUTH OF M-59...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS A DEEP DRY LAYER IS
IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS 850-700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT (850-
700 MB THETA-E) INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER STEADY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT A VERY WELL DEFINED SURGE EVIDENT (BEST
SEMBLANCE 0-4Z SATURDAY)...DRAWING CONCERN IN THE LIFT AND PROSPECTS
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
250 MB JET OF 100+ KNOTS THAN THE NAM. THE 00Z EURO SEEMS TO OFFER
UP A NICE COMPROMISE...AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE QUICK SHOT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL RAISE
POPS...LIFTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 TO LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY/EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

BIG WARM-UP ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO 10 C ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S LIKELY. DEW
PTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
OVER THE COLD GROUND OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL BE CARRYING LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS (700 MB) WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING AS THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WITH
ENHANCED LAKE HURON TROUGHING...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES
APPEARS LIKELY...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS...CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LEADING TO HIGH
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INNER SAGINAW BAY.  A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BEFORE MILDER AIR AND GREATER
STABILITY ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 270828
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST RESPONSE NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /2SM OR GREATER/.  DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...A LAKE MODIFIED RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PLUME LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION 15Z TO 21Z.
WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GREATER COVERAGE /SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS/...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
GREATER FORCING...MOISTURE QUALITY /1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/ AND
OVERALL DURATION.  MINOR ACCUMULATION AT HALF INCH OR LESS.  A WELL
DEFINED THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE HURON AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST HURON
COUNTY SHORELINE. THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE TO CLIP THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS.  LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE
SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZED BANDS JUST OFF SHORE...BUT A TREND WORTH
MONITORING GOING FORWARD TODAY.

THE EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THAT NOTED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL AGAIN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S
UNDER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS.  COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
POST-FRONTAL STARTING THIS EVENING.  850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -12C RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL SUB-INVERSION MOIST LAYER.  THIS
WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSION TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...A PERIOD OF
MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE JUST MOVED ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER
SAMPLING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION FORECASTED SOUTH OF M-59...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS A DEEP DRY LAYER IS
IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS 850-700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT (850-
700 MB THETA-E) INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER STEADY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT A VERY WELL DEFINED SURGE EVIDENT (BEST
SEMBLANCE 0-4Z SATURDAY)...DRAWING CONCERN IN THE LIFT AND PROSPECTS
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
250 MB JET OF 100+ KNOTS THAN THE NAM. THE 00Z EURO SEEMS TO OFFER
UP A NICE COMPROMISE...AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE QUICK SHOT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL RAISE
POPS...LIFTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 TO LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY/EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

BIG WARM-UP ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO 10 C ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S LIKELY. DEW
PTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
OVER THE COLD GROUND OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL BE CARRYING LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS (700 MB) WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING AS THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WITH
ENHANCED LAKE HURON TROUGHING...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES
APPEARS LIKELY...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS...CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LEADING TO HIGH
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAGINAW BAY.  A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
LAKE HURON BEFORE MILDER AIR AND GREATER STABILITY ARRIVES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 270828
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST RESPONSE NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /2SM OR GREATER/.  DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...A LAKE MODIFIED RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PLUME LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION 15Z TO 21Z.
WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GREATER COVERAGE /SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS/...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
GREATER FORCING...MOISTURE QUALITY /1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/ AND
OVERALL DURATION.  MINOR ACCUMULATION AT HALF INCH OR LESS.  A WELL
DEFINED THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE HURON AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST HURON
COUNTY SHORELINE. THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE TO CLIP THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS.  LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE
SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZED BANDS JUST OFF SHORE...BUT A TREND WORTH
MONITORING GOING FORWARD TODAY.

THE EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THAT NOTED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL AGAIN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S
UNDER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS.  COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
POST-FRONTAL STARTING THIS EVENING.  850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -12C RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL SUB-INVERSION MOIST LAYER.  THIS
WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSION TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...A PERIOD OF
MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE JUST MOVED ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER
SAMPLING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION FORECASTED SOUTH OF M-59...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS A DEEP DRY LAYER IS
IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS 850-700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT (850-
700 MB THETA-E) INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER STEADY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT A VERY WELL DEFINED SURGE EVIDENT (BEST
SEMBLANCE 0-4Z SATURDAY)...DRAWING CONCERN IN THE LIFT AND PROSPECTS
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
250 MB JET OF 100+ KNOTS THAN THE NAM. THE 00Z EURO SEEMS TO OFFER
UP A NICE COMPROMISE...AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE QUICK SHOT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL RAISE
POPS...LIFTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 TO LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY/EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

BIG WARM-UP ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO 10 C ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S LIKELY. DEW
PTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
OVER THE COLD GROUND OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL BE CARRYING LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS (700 MB) WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING AS THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WITH
ENHANCED LAKE HURON TROUGHING...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES
APPEARS LIKELY...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS...CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LEADING TO HIGH
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAGINAW BAY.  A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
LAKE HURON BEFORE MILDER AIR AND GREATER STABILITY ARRIVES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 270828
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST RESPONSE NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /2SM OR GREATER/.  DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...A LAKE MODIFIED RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PLUME LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION 15Z TO 21Z.
WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GREATER COVERAGE /SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS/...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
GREATER FORCING...MOISTURE QUALITY /1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/ AND
OVERALL DURATION.  MINOR ACCUMULATION AT HALF INCH OR LESS.  A WELL
DEFINED THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE HURON AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST HURON
COUNTY SHORELINE. THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE TO CLIP THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS.  LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE
SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZED BANDS JUST OFF SHORE...BUT A TREND WORTH
MONITORING GOING FORWARD TODAY.

THE EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THAT NOTED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL AGAIN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S
UNDER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS.  COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
POST-FRONTAL STARTING THIS EVENING.  850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -12C RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL SUB-INVERSION MOIST LAYER.  THIS
WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSION TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...A PERIOD OF
MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE JUST MOVED ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER
SAMPLING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION FORECASTED SOUTH OF M-59...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS A DEEP DRY LAYER IS
IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS 850-700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT (850-
700 MB THETA-E) INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER STEADY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT A VERY WELL DEFINED SURGE EVIDENT (BEST
SEMBLANCE 0-4Z SATURDAY)...DRAWING CONCERN IN THE LIFT AND PROSPECTS
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
250 MB JET OF 100+ KNOTS THAN THE NAM. THE 00Z EURO SEEMS TO OFFER
UP A NICE COMPROMISE...AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE QUICK SHOT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL RAISE
POPS...LIFTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 TO LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY/EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

BIG WARM-UP ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO 10 C ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S LIKELY. DEW
PTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
OVER THE COLD GROUND OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL BE CARRYING LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS (700 MB) WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING AS THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WITH
ENHANCED LAKE HURON TROUGHING...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES
APPEARS LIKELY...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS...CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LEADING TO HIGH
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAGINAW BAY.  A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
LAKE HURON BEFORE MILDER AIR AND GREATER STABILITY ARRIVES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 270828
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST RESPONSE NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /2SM OR GREATER/.  DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...A LAKE MODIFIED RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PLUME LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION 15Z TO 21Z.
WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GREATER COVERAGE /SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS/...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
GREATER FORCING...MOISTURE QUALITY /1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/ AND
OVERALL DURATION.  MINOR ACCUMULATION AT HALF INCH OR LESS.  A WELL
DEFINED THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE HURON AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST HURON
COUNTY SHORELINE. THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE TO CLIP THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS.  LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE
SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZED BANDS JUST OFF SHORE...BUT A TREND WORTH
MONITORING GOING FORWARD TODAY.

THE EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THAT NOTED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL AGAIN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S
UNDER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS.  COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
POST-FRONTAL STARTING THIS EVENING.  850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE -12C RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL SUB-INVERSION MOIST LAYER.  THIS
WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSION TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...A PERIOD OF
MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE JUST MOVED ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER
SAMPLING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION FORECASTED SOUTH OF M-59...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS A DEEP DRY LAYER IS
IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS 850-700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT (850-
700 MB THETA-E) INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER STEADY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT A VERY WELL DEFINED SURGE EVIDENT (BEST
SEMBLANCE 0-4Z SATURDAY)...DRAWING CONCERN IN THE LIFT AND PROSPECTS
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
250 MB JET OF 100+ KNOTS THAN THE NAM. THE 00Z EURO SEEMS TO OFFER
UP A NICE COMPROMISE...AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE QUICK SHOT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL RAISE
POPS...LIFTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 TO LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY/EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

BIG WARM-UP ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO 10 C ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S LIKELY. DEW
PTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND WITH THIS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
OVER THE COLD GROUND OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL BE CARRYING LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS (700 MB) WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING AS THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WITH
ENHANCED LAKE HURON TROUGHING...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES
APPEARS LIKELY...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS...CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LEADING TO HIGH
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAGINAW BAY.  A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
LAKE HURON BEFORE MILDER AIR AND GREATER STABILITY ARRIVES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 270827
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 270827
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 270627
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 270627
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 270627
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 270627
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KDTX 270453
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 924 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATE...

AVAILABLE RADAR DATA OVER LAKE HURON SUGGESTS SOME UPTICK IN SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...AIDED BY LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO THE THUMB REGION. THE 00Z DTX
SOUNDING DOES SHOW TEMPS OF -13C AT THE BASE OF INVERSION. SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE DEPTHS OVER LAKE HURON TO BE HIGHER. THE NAM AND HRR
SUGGEST BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY OVERNIGHT WILL
BRIEFLY FORCE THIS CONVERGENCE INTO THE THUMB REGION /POSSIBLY
PORT HURON/ PRIOR TO AN OVERALL BACKING OF THE FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. LATEST OBS INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH IS NOT AS
STRONG AS THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT HOLDING
ONTO JUST A CHANCE OF SHSN ACROSS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...BUT
INCREASING THE CHANCES A BIT FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE DEEP INVERSION WILL HOLD CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS AND LITTLE TO NO OVERALL THERMAL ADVECTION SUGGESTS NIGHTTIME
TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. JUST A MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

NORTHEAST GRADIENT WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL
FUNNEL LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE
TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON WILL NUDGE THE FLOW TOWARD A MORE VEERED
EASTERLY FETCH AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE OF THE THUMB TONIGHT.
INCREASED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LAKE-INDUCED TROUGH AND ALONG THE
SHORELINE MAY YET SUPPORT A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORKING
INLAND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED,
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO A RESPECTABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION WITHIN
THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES WITH THE MOIST RESIDENT
AIRMASS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. STOUT INVERSION
EVIDENT ON THIS MORNING`S 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND ONGOING MOIST
EASTERLY FETCH THROUGH TODAY YIELD CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY UNSTABLE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK AS THE CURRENT TROUGH EXITS EAST BY THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXIT OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...A MUCH MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETUP WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER WOBBLES ABOUT ITSELF OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL STEER THE FLOW EASTERLY BY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE LINING UP VERY NEAR TO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT WOBBLE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD
LEAD TO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD ON THANKSGIVING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSING THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER
IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS WHICH IS BELOW -22C AT 850MB OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA BUT WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT TO AROUND -17C BY
THE TIME IT REACHES SE MI THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WE
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING AND WESTERLY FLOW AIDING IN A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. DOES NOT LOOK TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THE BETTER
MOISTURE...A MEAGER 0.25-0.30 PWAT...EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER LL LAPSE RATES COMING LATER IN THE DAY.
MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
LOWER MI. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH THE DAY.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES THE ACTIVE JET NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE LEAD EDGE OF A SHEARING PV ANOMALY INTO
SOUTHERN MI COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MI ON THE NOSE OF A MORE THETA
E RICH AIRMASS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BEST FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BAND THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE
POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. START OF THE SNOW IS IN
QUESTION AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATED...EVEN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES ABOVE
800MB. STILL THINK IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE AXIS OF THE FORCING
GIVING IT A BETTER RESIDENCE TIME. WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AROUND 0.10 INCHES OF QPF FRI-FRI NIGHT...THINKING A 1-2 INCH
SNOWFALL FORECAST SEEMS FAIR.

A ZONAL PATTERN WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY. A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN DYNAMICALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN
FILTERING IN. STRONG 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLD
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH TEMPS TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL AND PRECIP
CHANCES QUITE LOW.

MARINE...

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AS THE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE OFFERS NO CLEARER
PICTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LOOK TO STAY ELEVATED FOR VERY LONG BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT OVER THE WATERS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE GALE WATCH UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE RESOLVED. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN
INTRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LHZ362-363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 270453
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 924 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATE...

AVAILABLE RADAR DATA OVER LAKE HURON SUGGESTS SOME UPTICK IN SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...AIDED BY LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO THE THUMB REGION. THE 00Z DTX
SOUNDING DOES SHOW TEMPS OF -13C AT THE BASE OF INVERSION. SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE DEPTHS OVER LAKE HURON TO BE HIGHER. THE NAM AND HRR
SUGGEST BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY OVERNIGHT WILL
BRIEFLY FORCE THIS CONVERGENCE INTO THE THUMB REGION /POSSIBLY
PORT HURON/ PRIOR TO AN OVERALL BACKING OF THE FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. LATEST OBS INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH IS NOT AS
STRONG AS THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT HOLDING
ONTO JUST A CHANCE OF SHSN ACROSS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...BUT
INCREASING THE CHANCES A BIT FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE DEEP INVERSION WILL HOLD CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS AND LITTLE TO NO OVERALL THERMAL ADVECTION SUGGESTS NIGHTTIME
TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. JUST A MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

NORTHEAST GRADIENT WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL
FUNNEL LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE
TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON WILL NUDGE THE FLOW TOWARD A MORE VEERED
EASTERLY FETCH AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE OF THE THUMB TONIGHT.
INCREASED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LAKE-INDUCED TROUGH AND ALONG THE
SHORELINE MAY YET SUPPORT A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORKING
INLAND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED,
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO A RESPECTABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION WITHIN
THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES WITH THE MOIST RESIDENT
AIRMASS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. STOUT INVERSION
EVIDENT ON THIS MORNING`S 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND ONGOING MOIST
EASTERLY FETCH THROUGH TODAY YIELD CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY UNSTABLE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK AS THE CURRENT TROUGH EXITS EAST BY THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXIT OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...A MUCH MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETUP WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER WOBBLES ABOUT ITSELF OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL STEER THE FLOW EASTERLY BY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE LINING UP VERY NEAR TO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT WOBBLE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD
LEAD TO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD ON THANKSGIVING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSING THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER
IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS WHICH IS BELOW -22C AT 850MB OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA BUT WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT TO AROUND -17C BY
THE TIME IT REACHES SE MI THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WE
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING AND WESTERLY FLOW AIDING IN A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. DOES NOT LOOK TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THE BETTER
MOISTURE...A MEAGER 0.25-0.30 PWAT...EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER LL LAPSE RATES COMING LATER IN THE DAY.
MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
LOWER MI. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH THE DAY.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES THE ACTIVE JET NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE LEAD EDGE OF A SHEARING PV ANOMALY INTO
SOUTHERN MI COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MI ON THE NOSE OF A MORE THETA
E RICH AIRMASS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BEST FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BAND THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE
POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. START OF THE SNOW IS IN
QUESTION AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATED...EVEN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES ABOVE
800MB. STILL THINK IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE AXIS OF THE FORCING
GIVING IT A BETTER RESIDENCE TIME. WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AROUND 0.10 INCHES OF QPF FRI-FRI NIGHT...THINKING A 1-2 INCH
SNOWFALL FORECAST SEEMS FAIR.

A ZONAL PATTERN WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY. A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN DYNAMICALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN
FILTERING IN. STRONG 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLD
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH TEMPS TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL AND PRECIP
CHANCES QUITE LOW.

MARINE...

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AS THE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE OFFERS NO CLEARER
PICTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LOOK TO STAY ELEVATED FOR VERY LONG BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT OVER THE WATERS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE GALE WATCH UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE RESOLVED. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN
INTRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LHZ362-363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 270453
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 924 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATE...

AVAILABLE RADAR DATA OVER LAKE HURON SUGGESTS SOME UPTICK IN SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...AIDED BY LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO THE THUMB REGION. THE 00Z DTX
SOUNDING DOES SHOW TEMPS OF -13C AT THE BASE OF INVERSION. SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE DEPTHS OVER LAKE HURON TO BE HIGHER. THE NAM AND HRR
SUGGEST BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY OVERNIGHT WILL
BRIEFLY FORCE THIS CONVERGENCE INTO THE THUMB REGION /POSSIBLY
PORT HURON/ PRIOR TO AN OVERALL BACKING OF THE FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. LATEST OBS INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH IS NOT AS
STRONG AS THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT HOLDING
ONTO JUST A CHANCE OF SHSN ACROSS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...BUT
INCREASING THE CHANCES A BIT FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE DEEP INVERSION WILL HOLD CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS AND LITTLE TO NO OVERALL THERMAL ADVECTION SUGGESTS NIGHTTIME
TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. JUST A MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

NORTHEAST GRADIENT WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL
FUNNEL LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE
TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON WILL NUDGE THE FLOW TOWARD A MORE VEERED
EASTERLY FETCH AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE OF THE THUMB TONIGHT.
INCREASED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LAKE-INDUCED TROUGH AND ALONG THE
SHORELINE MAY YET SUPPORT A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORKING
INLAND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED,
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO A RESPECTABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION WITHIN
THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES WITH THE MOIST RESIDENT
AIRMASS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. STOUT INVERSION
EVIDENT ON THIS MORNING`S 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND ONGOING MOIST
EASTERLY FETCH THROUGH TODAY YIELD CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY UNSTABLE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK AS THE CURRENT TROUGH EXITS EAST BY THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXIT OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...A MUCH MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETUP WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER WOBBLES ABOUT ITSELF OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL STEER THE FLOW EASTERLY BY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE LINING UP VERY NEAR TO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT WOBBLE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD
LEAD TO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD ON THANKSGIVING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSING THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER
IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS WHICH IS BELOW -22C AT 850MB OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA BUT WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT TO AROUND -17C BY
THE TIME IT REACHES SE MI THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WE
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING AND WESTERLY FLOW AIDING IN A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. DOES NOT LOOK TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THE BETTER
MOISTURE...A MEAGER 0.25-0.30 PWAT...EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER LL LAPSE RATES COMING LATER IN THE DAY.
MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
LOWER MI. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH THE DAY.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES THE ACTIVE JET NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE LEAD EDGE OF A SHEARING PV ANOMALY INTO
SOUTHERN MI COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MI ON THE NOSE OF A MORE THETA
E RICH AIRMASS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BEST FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BAND THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE
POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. START OF THE SNOW IS IN
QUESTION AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATED...EVEN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES ABOVE
800MB. STILL THINK IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE AXIS OF THE FORCING
GIVING IT A BETTER RESIDENCE TIME. WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AROUND 0.10 INCHES OF QPF FRI-FRI NIGHT...THINKING A 1-2 INCH
SNOWFALL FORECAST SEEMS FAIR.

A ZONAL PATTERN WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY. A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN DYNAMICALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN
FILTERING IN. STRONG 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLD
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH TEMPS TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL AND PRECIP
CHANCES QUITE LOW.

MARINE...

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AS THE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE OFFERS NO CLEARER
PICTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LOOK TO STAY ELEVATED FOR VERY LONG BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT OVER THE WATERS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE GALE WATCH UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE RESOLVED. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN
INTRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LHZ362-363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 270453
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 924 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATE...

AVAILABLE RADAR DATA OVER LAKE HURON SUGGESTS SOME UPTICK IN SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...AIDED BY LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO THE THUMB REGION. THE 00Z DTX
SOUNDING DOES SHOW TEMPS OF -13C AT THE BASE OF INVERSION. SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE DEPTHS OVER LAKE HURON TO BE HIGHER. THE NAM AND HRR
SUGGEST BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY OVERNIGHT WILL
BRIEFLY FORCE THIS CONVERGENCE INTO THE THUMB REGION /POSSIBLY
PORT HURON/ PRIOR TO AN OVERALL BACKING OF THE FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. LATEST OBS INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH IS NOT AS
STRONG AS THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT HOLDING
ONTO JUST A CHANCE OF SHSN ACROSS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...BUT
INCREASING THE CHANCES A BIT FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE DEEP INVERSION WILL HOLD CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS AND LITTLE TO NO OVERALL THERMAL ADVECTION SUGGESTS NIGHTTIME
TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. JUST A MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

NORTHEAST GRADIENT WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL
FUNNEL LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE
TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON WILL NUDGE THE FLOW TOWARD A MORE VEERED
EASTERLY FETCH AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE OF THE THUMB TONIGHT.
INCREASED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LAKE-INDUCED TROUGH AND ALONG THE
SHORELINE MAY YET SUPPORT A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORKING
INLAND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED,
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO A RESPECTABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION WITHIN
THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES WITH THE MOIST RESIDENT
AIRMASS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. STOUT INVERSION
EVIDENT ON THIS MORNING`S 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND ONGOING MOIST
EASTERLY FETCH THROUGH TODAY YIELD CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY UNSTABLE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK AS THE CURRENT TROUGH EXITS EAST BY THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXIT OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...A MUCH MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETUP WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER WOBBLES ABOUT ITSELF OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL STEER THE FLOW EASTERLY BY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE LINING UP VERY NEAR TO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT WOBBLE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD
LEAD TO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD ON THANKSGIVING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSING THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER
IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS WHICH IS BELOW -22C AT 850MB OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA BUT WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT TO AROUND -17C BY
THE TIME IT REACHES SE MI THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WE
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING AND WESTERLY FLOW AIDING IN A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. DOES NOT LOOK TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THE BETTER
MOISTURE...A MEAGER 0.25-0.30 PWAT...EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER LL LAPSE RATES COMING LATER IN THE DAY.
MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
LOWER MI. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH THE DAY.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES THE ACTIVE JET NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE LEAD EDGE OF A SHEARING PV ANOMALY INTO
SOUTHERN MI COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MI ON THE NOSE OF A MORE THETA
E RICH AIRMASS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BEST FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BAND THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE
POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. START OF THE SNOW IS IN
QUESTION AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATED...EVEN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES ABOVE
800MB. STILL THINK IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE AXIS OF THE FORCING
GIVING IT A BETTER RESIDENCE TIME. WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AROUND 0.10 INCHES OF QPF FRI-FRI NIGHT...THINKING A 1-2 INCH
SNOWFALL FORECAST SEEMS FAIR.

A ZONAL PATTERN WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY. A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN DYNAMICALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN
FILTERING IN. STRONG 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLD
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH TEMPS TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL AND PRECIP
CHANCES QUITE LOW.

MARINE...

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AS THE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE OFFERS NO CLEARER
PICTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LOOK TO STAY ELEVATED FOR VERY LONG BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT OVER THE WATERS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE GALE WATCH UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE RESOLVED. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN
INTRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LHZ362-363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 270430
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD
AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SE FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO FAR
NE LWR MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT INTENSITY HAS YET TO REALLY RAMP UP. THIS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO HAPPEN WHEN ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASING FOR
FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN. WILL CERTAINLY LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES IN TACT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES
UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SNOW
SPREADS INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW AND STRONG CAA GREATLY INCREASES OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SYNOPSIS...GILLEN
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270430
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD
AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SE FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO FAR
NE LWR MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT INTENSITY HAS YET TO REALLY RAMP UP. THIS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO HAPPEN WHEN ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASING FOR
FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN. WILL CERTAINLY LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES IN TACT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES
UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SNOW
SPREADS INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW AND STRONG CAA GREATLY INCREASES OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SYNOPSIS...GILLEN
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270430
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD
AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SE FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO FAR
NE LWR MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT INTENSITY HAS YET TO REALLY RAMP UP. THIS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO HAPPEN WHEN ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASING FOR
FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN. WILL CERTAINLY LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES IN TACT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES
UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SNOW
SPREADS INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW AND STRONG CAA GREATLY INCREASES OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SYNOPSIS...GILLEN
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270430
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD
AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SE FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO FAR
NE LWR MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT INTENSITY HAS YET TO REALLY RAMP UP. THIS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO HAPPEN WHEN ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASING FOR
FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN. WILL CERTAINLY LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES IN TACT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES
UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SNOW
SPREADS INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW AND STRONG CAA GREATLY INCREASES OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SYNOPSIS...GILLEN
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KDTX 270224
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
924 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

AVAILABLE RADAR DATA OVER LAKE HURON SUGGESTS SOME UPTICK IN SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...AIDED BY LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO THE THUMB REGION. THE 00Z DTX
SOUNDING DOES SHOW TEMPS OF -13C AT THE BASE OF INVERSION. SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE DEPTHS OVER LAKE HURON TO BE HIGHER. THE NAM AND HRR
SUGGEST BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY OVERNIGHT WILL
BRIEFLY FORCE THIS CONVERGENCE INTO THE THUMB REGION /POSSIBLY
PORT HURON/ PRIOR TO AN OVERALL BACKING OF THE FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. LATEST OBS INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH IS NOT AS
STRONG AS THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT HOLDING
ONTO JUST A CHANCE OF SHSN ACROSS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...BUT
INCREASING THE CHANCES A BIT FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE DEEP INVERSION WILL HOLD CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS AND LITTLE TO NO OVERALL THERMAL ADVECTION SUGGESTS NIGHTTIME
TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. JUST A MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 604 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

NORTHEAST GRADIENT WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL
FUNNEL LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE
TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON WILL NUDGE THE FLOW TOWARD A MORE VEERED
EASTERLY FETCH AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE OF THE THUMB TONIGHT.
INCREASED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LAKE-INDUCED TROUGH AND ALONG THE
SHORELINE MAY YET SUPPORT A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORKING
INLAND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED,
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO A RESPECTABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION WITHIN
THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES WITH THE MOIST RESIDENT
AIRMASS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. STOUT INVERSION
EVIDENT ON THIS MORNING`S 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND ONGOING MOIST
EASTERLY FETCH THROUGH TODAY YIELD CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY UNSTABLE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK AS THE CURRENT TROUGH EXITS EAST BY THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXIT OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...A MUCH MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETUP WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER WOBBLES ABOUT ITSELF OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL STEER THE FLOW EASTERLY BY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE LINING UP VERY NEAR TO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT WOBBLE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD
LEAD TO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD ON THANKSGIVING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSING THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER
IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS WHICH IS BELOW -22C AT 850MB OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA BUT WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT TO AROUND -17C BY
THE TIME IT REACHES SE MI THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WE
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING AND WESTERLY FLOW AIDING IN A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. DOES NOT LOOK TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THE BETTER
MOISTURE...A MEAGER 0.25-0.30 PWAT...EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER LL LAPSE RATES COMING LATER IN THE DAY.
MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
LOWER MI. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH THE DAY.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES THE ACTIVE JET NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE LEAD EDGE OF A SHEARING PV ANOMALY INTO
SOUTHERN MI COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MI ON THE NOSE OF A MORE THETA
E RICH AIRMASS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BEST FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BAND THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE
POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. START OF THE SNOW IS IN
QUESTION AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATED...EVEN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES ABOVE
800MB. STILL THINK IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE AXIS OF THE FORCING
GIVING IT A BETTER RESIDENCE TIME. WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AROUND 0.10 INCHES OF QPF FRI-FRI NIGHT...THINKING A 1-2 INCH
SNOWFALL FORECAST SEEMS FAIR.

A ZONAL PATTERN WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY. A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN DYNAMICALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN
FILTERING IN. STRONG 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLD
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH TEMPS TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL AND PRECIP
CHANCES QUITE LOW.

MARINE...

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AS THE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE OFFERS NO CLEARER
PICTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LOOK TO STAY ELEVATED FOR VERY LONG BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT OVER THE WATERS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE GALE WATCH UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE RESOLVED. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN
INTRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LHZ362-363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 270224
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
924 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

AVAILABLE RADAR DATA OVER LAKE HURON SUGGESTS SOME UPTICK IN SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...AIDED BY LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO THE THUMB REGION. THE 00Z DTX
SOUNDING DOES SHOW TEMPS OF -13C AT THE BASE OF INVERSION. SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE DEPTHS OVER LAKE HURON TO BE HIGHER. THE NAM AND HRR
SUGGEST BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY OVERNIGHT WILL
BRIEFLY FORCE THIS CONVERGENCE INTO THE THUMB REGION /POSSIBLY
PORT HURON/ PRIOR TO AN OVERALL BACKING OF THE FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. LATEST OBS INDICATE THAT THIS HIGH IS NOT AS
STRONG AS THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT HOLDING
ONTO JUST A CHANCE OF SHSN ACROSS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...BUT
INCREASING THE CHANCES A BIT FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE DEEP INVERSION WILL HOLD CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS AND LITTLE TO NO OVERALL THERMAL ADVECTION SUGGESTS NIGHTTIME
TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. JUST A MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 604 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

NORTHEAST GRADIENT WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL
FUNNEL LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE
TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON WILL NUDGE THE FLOW TOWARD A MORE VEERED
EASTERLY FETCH AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE OF THE THUMB TONIGHT.
INCREASED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LAKE-INDUCED TROUGH AND ALONG THE
SHORELINE MAY YET SUPPORT A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORKING
INLAND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED,
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO A RESPECTABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION WITHIN
THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES WITH THE MOIST RESIDENT
AIRMASS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. STOUT INVERSION
EVIDENT ON THIS MORNING`S 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND ONGOING MOIST
EASTERLY FETCH THROUGH TODAY YIELD CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY UNSTABLE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK AS THE CURRENT TROUGH EXITS EAST BY THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXIT OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...A MUCH MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETUP WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER WOBBLES ABOUT ITSELF OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL STEER THE FLOW EASTERLY BY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE LINING UP VERY NEAR TO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT WOBBLE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD
LEAD TO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD ON THANKSGIVING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSING THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER
IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS WHICH IS BELOW -22C AT 850MB OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA BUT WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT TO AROUND -17C BY
THE TIME IT REACHES SE MI THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WE
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING AND WESTERLY FLOW AIDING IN A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. DOES NOT LOOK TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THE BETTER
MOISTURE...A MEAGER 0.25-0.30 PWAT...EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER LL LAPSE RATES COMING LATER IN THE DAY.
MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
LOWER MI. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH THE DAY.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES THE ACTIVE JET NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE LEAD EDGE OF A SHEARING PV ANOMALY INTO
SOUTHERN MI COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MI ON THE NOSE OF A MORE THETA
E RICH AIRMASS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BEST FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BAND THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE
POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. START OF THE SNOW IS IN
QUESTION AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATED...EVEN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES ABOVE
800MB. STILL THINK IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE AXIS OF THE FORCING
GIVING IT A BETTER RESIDENCE TIME. WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AROUND 0.10 INCHES OF QPF FRI-FRI NIGHT...THINKING A 1-2 INCH
SNOWFALL FORECAST SEEMS FAIR.

A ZONAL PATTERN WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY. A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN DYNAMICALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN
FILTERING IN. STRONG 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLD
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH TEMPS TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL AND PRECIP
CHANCES QUITE LOW.

MARINE...

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AS THE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE OFFERS NO CLEARER
PICTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LOOK TO STAY ELEVATED FOR VERY LONG BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT OVER THE WATERS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE GALE WATCH UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE RESOLVED. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN
INTRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LHZ362-363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 262340
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
640 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PERIODS OF HEAVIER LK EFFECT SN AND AT LEAST OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES TROF AND WSHFT TO A FVRBL
UPSLOPE N DIRECTION WL IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND SAW INTO THE EARLY MRNG
HRS ON THANKSGIVING BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/
DRYING BEHIND THE TROF RESULTS IN A STEADY IMPROVEMENT LATER TNGT/
THU MRNG. SINCE THE N WIND IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND FOR CMX...MVFR/
ONLY OCNL IFR VSBYS WL BE THE RULE AT THAT TERMINAL. GUSTY N WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE TROF PASSAGE WL ALSO DIMINISH LATER TNGT/EARLY THU
MRNG UNDER WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY APRCHG HI
PRES RDG. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON
THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK TOWARD THE NW AND THEN THE
W... RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND SAW. BUT
MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KGRR 262340
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
640 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 262340
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
640 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 262338
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
638 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PERIODS OF HEAVIER LK EFFECT SN

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 262338
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
638 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PERIODS OF HEAVIER LK EFFECT SN

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 262338
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
638 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PERIODS OF HEAVIER LK EFFECT SN

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 262338
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
638 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PERIODS OF HEAVIER LK EFFECT SN

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KDTX 262304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
604 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

NORTHEAST GRADIENT WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL
FUNNEL LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE
TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON WILL NUDGE THE FLOW TOWARD A MORE VEERED
EASTERLY FETCH AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE OF THE THUMB TONIGHT.
INCREASED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LAKE-INDUCED TROUGH AND ALONG THE
SHORELINE MAY YET SUPPORT A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORKING
INLAND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED,
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO A RESPECTABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION WITHIN
THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES WITH THE MOIST RESIDENT
AIRMASS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. STOUT INVERSION
EVIDENT ON THIS MORNING`S 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND ONGOING MOIST
EASTERLY FETCH THROUGH TODAY YIELD CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY UNSTABLE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK AS THE CURRENT TROUGH EXITS EAST BY THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXIT OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...A MUCH MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETUP WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER WOBBLES ABOUT ITSELF OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL STEER THE FLOW EASTERLY BY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE LINING UP VERY NEAR TO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT WOBBLE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD
LEAD TO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD ON THANKSGIVING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSING THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER
IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS WHICH IS BELOW -22C AT 850MB OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA BUT WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT TO AROUND -17C BY
THE TIME IT REACHES SE MI THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WE
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING AND WESTERLY FLOW AIDING IN A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. DOES NOT LOOK TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THE BETTER
MOISTURE...A MEAGER 0.25-0.30 PWAT...EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER LL LAPSE RATES COMING LATER IN THE DAY.
MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
LOWER MI. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH THE DAY.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES THE ACTIVE JET NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE LEAD EDGE OF A SHEARING PV ANOMALY INTO
SOUTHERN MI COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MI ON THE NOSE OF A MORE THETA
E RICH AIRMASS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BEST FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BAND THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE
POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. START OF THE SNOW IS IN
QUESTION AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATED...EVEN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES ABOVE
800MB. STILL THINK IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE AXIS OF THE FORCING
GIVING IT A BETTER RESIDENCE TIME. WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AROUND 0.10 INCHES OF QPF FRI-FRI NIGHT...THINKING A 1-2 INCH
SNOWFALL FORECAST SEEMS FAIR.

A ZONAL PATTERN WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY. A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN DYNAMICALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN
FILTERING IN. STRONG 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLD
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH TEMPS TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL AND PRECIP
CHANCES QUITE LOW.

MARINE...

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AS THE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE OFFERS NO CLEARER
PICTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LOOK TO STAY ELEVATED FOR VERY LONG BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT OVER THE WATERS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE GALE WATCH UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE RESOLVED. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN
INTRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LHZ362-363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 262304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
604 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

NORTHEAST GRADIENT WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL
FUNNEL LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE
TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON WILL NUDGE THE FLOW TOWARD A MORE VEERED
EASTERLY FETCH AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE OF THE THUMB TONIGHT.
INCREASED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LAKE-INDUCED TROUGH AND ALONG THE
SHORELINE MAY YET SUPPORT A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORKING
INLAND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED,
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO A RESPECTABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION WITHIN
THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES WITH THE MOIST RESIDENT
AIRMASS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. STOUT INVERSION
EVIDENT ON THIS MORNING`S 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND ONGOING MOIST
EASTERLY FETCH THROUGH TODAY YIELD CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY UNSTABLE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK AS THE CURRENT TROUGH EXITS EAST BY THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXIT OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...A MUCH MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETUP WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER WOBBLES ABOUT ITSELF OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL STEER THE FLOW EASTERLY BY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE LINING UP VERY NEAR TO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT WOBBLE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD
LEAD TO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD ON THANKSGIVING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSING THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER
IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS WHICH IS BELOW -22C AT 850MB OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA BUT WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT TO AROUND -17C BY
THE TIME IT REACHES SE MI THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WE
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING AND WESTERLY FLOW AIDING IN A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. DOES NOT LOOK TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THE BETTER
MOISTURE...A MEAGER 0.25-0.30 PWAT...EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER LL LAPSE RATES COMING LATER IN THE DAY.
MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
LOWER MI. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH THE DAY.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES THE ACTIVE JET NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE LEAD EDGE OF A SHEARING PV ANOMALY INTO
SOUTHERN MI COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MI ON THE NOSE OF A MORE THETA
E RICH AIRMASS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BEST FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BAND THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE
POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. START OF THE SNOW IS IN
QUESTION AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATED...EVEN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES ABOVE
800MB. STILL THINK IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE AXIS OF THE FORCING
GIVING IT A BETTER RESIDENCE TIME. WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AROUND 0.10 INCHES OF QPF FRI-FRI NIGHT...THINKING A 1-2 INCH
SNOWFALL FORECAST SEEMS FAIR.

A ZONAL PATTERN WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY. A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN DYNAMICALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN
FILTERING IN. STRONG 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLD
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH TEMPS TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL AND PRECIP
CHANCES QUITE LOW.

MARINE...

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AS THE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE OFFERS NO CLEARER
PICTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LOOK TO STAY ELEVATED FOR VERY LONG BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT OVER THE WATERS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE GALE WATCH UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE RESOLVED. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN
INTRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LHZ362-363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 262304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
604 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

NORTHEAST GRADIENT WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL
FUNNEL LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE
TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON WILL NUDGE THE FLOW TOWARD A MORE VEERED
EASTERLY FETCH AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE OF THE THUMB TONIGHT.
INCREASED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LAKE-INDUCED TROUGH AND ALONG THE
SHORELINE MAY YET SUPPORT A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORKING
INLAND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED,
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO A RESPECTABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION WITHIN
THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES WITH THE MOIST RESIDENT
AIRMASS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. STOUT INVERSION
EVIDENT ON THIS MORNING`S 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND ONGOING MOIST
EASTERLY FETCH THROUGH TODAY YIELD CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY UNSTABLE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK AS THE CURRENT TROUGH EXITS EAST BY THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXIT OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...A MUCH MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETUP WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER WOBBLES ABOUT ITSELF OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL STEER THE FLOW EASTERLY BY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE LINING UP VERY NEAR TO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT WOBBLE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD
LEAD TO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD ON THANKSGIVING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSING THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER
IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS WHICH IS BELOW -22C AT 850MB OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA BUT WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT TO AROUND -17C BY
THE TIME IT REACHES SE MI THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WE
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING AND WESTERLY FLOW AIDING IN A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. DOES NOT LOOK TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THE BETTER
MOISTURE...A MEAGER 0.25-0.30 PWAT...EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER LL LAPSE RATES COMING LATER IN THE DAY.
MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
LOWER MI. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH THE DAY.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES THE ACTIVE JET NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE LEAD EDGE OF A SHEARING PV ANOMALY INTO
SOUTHERN MI COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MI ON THE NOSE OF A MORE THETA
E RICH AIRMASS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BEST FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BAND THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE
POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. START OF THE SNOW IS IN
QUESTION AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATED...EVEN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES ABOVE
800MB. STILL THINK IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE AXIS OF THE FORCING
GIVING IT A BETTER RESIDENCE TIME. WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AROUND 0.10 INCHES OF QPF FRI-FRI NIGHT...THINKING A 1-2 INCH
SNOWFALL FORECAST SEEMS FAIR.

A ZONAL PATTERN WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY. A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN DYNAMICALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN
FILTERING IN. STRONG 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLD
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH TEMPS TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL AND PRECIP
CHANCES QUITE LOW.

MARINE...

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AS THE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE OFFERS NO CLEARER
PICTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LOOK TO STAY ELEVATED FOR VERY LONG BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT OVER THE WATERS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE GALE WATCH UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE RESOLVED. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN
INTRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LHZ362-363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 262304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
604 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DEEP INVERSION BASED AROUND 4K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
A 3500-4500 FT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SE MI. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
SECOND CLOUD DECK BASED BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3000 FT WITH SOME
FLURRIES. IN TERMS OF SE MI...THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN AND AROUND METRO DETROIT WHERE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDED HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT MAY BOOST
THE INVERSION A LITTLE BIT. THE TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALSO
ADD JUST A LITTLE DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING LOW END MVFR CLOUD BASES /3500-4500 FT/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

NORTHEAST GRADIENT WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL
FUNNEL LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE
TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON WILL NUDGE THE FLOW TOWARD A MORE VEERED
EASTERLY FETCH AS IT APPROACHES THE SHORELINE OF THE THUMB TONIGHT.
INCREASED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LAKE-INDUCED TROUGH AND ALONG THE
SHORELINE MAY YET SUPPORT A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORKING
INLAND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED,
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO A RESPECTABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION WITHIN
THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES WITH THE MOIST RESIDENT
AIRMASS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. STOUT INVERSION
EVIDENT ON THIS MORNING`S 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND ONGOING MOIST
EASTERLY FETCH THROUGH TODAY YIELD CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY UNSTABLE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK AS THE CURRENT TROUGH EXITS EAST BY THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXIT OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...A MUCH MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETUP WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER WOBBLES ABOUT ITSELF OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL STEER THE FLOW EASTERLY BY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE LINING UP VERY NEAR TO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT WOBBLE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD
LEAD TO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD ON THANKSGIVING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSING THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER
IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS WHICH IS BELOW -22C AT 850MB OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA BUT WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT TO AROUND -17C BY
THE TIME IT REACHES SE MI THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WE
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING AND WESTERLY FLOW AIDING IN A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. DOES NOT LOOK TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THE BETTER
MOISTURE...A MEAGER 0.25-0.30 PWAT...EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER LL LAPSE RATES COMING LATER IN THE DAY.
MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
LOWER MI. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH THE DAY.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES THE ACTIVE JET NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE LEAD EDGE OF A SHEARING PV ANOMALY INTO
SOUTHERN MI COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MI ON THE NOSE OF A MORE THETA
E RICH AIRMASS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BEST FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BAND THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE
POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. START OF THE SNOW IS IN
QUESTION AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATED...EVEN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES ABOVE
800MB. STILL THINK IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE AXIS OF THE FORCING
GIVING IT A BETTER RESIDENCE TIME. WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AROUND 0.10 INCHES OF QPF FRI-FRI NIGHT...THINKING A 1-2 INCH
SNOWFALL FORECAST SEEMS FAIR.

A ZONAL PATTERN WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY. A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN DYNAMICALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN
FILTERING IN. STRONG 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLD
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH TEMPS TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL AND PRECIP
CHANCES QUITE LOW.

MARINE...

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES USHERING IN A COLDER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AS THE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE OFFERS NO CLEARER
PICTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LOOK TO STAY ELEVATED FOR VERY LONG BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT OVER THE WATERS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE GALE WATCH UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE RESOLVED. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN
INTRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LHZ362-363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 262302
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
602 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD
AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VISBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES UP
THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ALREADY SEEING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADING INLAND TOWARD KAPN THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVIER SNOWS LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON LIFR REMAINS LOW AS SUCH
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOCALIZED. NONE THE LESS...A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES: A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOWFALL AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE SNOW COULD BRIEFLY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT (PRIMARY BETWEEN 07Z
AND 14Z). WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME OF THAT SNOW BLOWING AROUND. THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL TAPER
BY MIDDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONSTO A FEW ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GILLEN
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...GILLEN
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 262302
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
602 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD
AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VISBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES UP
THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ALREADY SEEING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADING INLAND TOWARD KAPN THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVIER SNOWS LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON LIFR REMAINS LOW AS SUCH
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOCALIZED. NONE THE LESS...A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES: A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOWFALL AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE SNOW COULD BRIEFLY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT (PRIMARY BETWEEN 07Z
AND 14Z). WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME OF THAT SNOW BLOWING AROUND. THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL TAPER
BY MIDDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONSTO A FEW ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GILLEN
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...GILLEN
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 262211
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
511 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 262211
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
511 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 262211
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
511 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 262211
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
511 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 262101
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VISBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES UP
THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST THINGS
FIRST...NOT MUCH GOING ON FOR ALL SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH CEILINGS FLUCTUATING EITHER SIDE OF 3000 FEET
AND SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (NO
ACCUMULATION). TONIGHT TURNS TRICKY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CURL INLAND TOWARD KAPN...WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS THIS WILL BE A
MESOSCALE-DOMINATED AND VERY LOCALIZED PHENOMENA. STILL...THIS IS
WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY AS THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW.

AS FOR THE OTHER SITES...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING LAKE SNOW BANDS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TO BRING A ROUND OF BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE "FLUFFY" VARIETY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO ACCUMULATE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
TURN GUST FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED...SO SOME OF THAT SNOW MAY BLOW AROUND. SYNOPTIC SNOW
WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AROUND TVC AND PERHAPS MBL BASED ON THE
EXPECTED 340-350 DEGREE WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 262101
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VISBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES UP
THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LA