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000
FXUS63 KGRR 202329
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
729 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

EXPECT ONE MORE WARM DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 70 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN COLDER AIR AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN COOL
BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE STILL ON TRACK FOR A MONDAY EVENING FRONTAL
PASSAGE... WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TOTAL QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE
LUDINGTON AREA. ACTUALLY LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR COULD EVEN
STAY DRY UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY.

INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT SOME SKINNY CAPE IS PRESENT IN THE FCST
SOUNDINGS WITH MU CAPES UP TO 700 J/KG. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTAINING GUSTY
WINDS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS CONVECTION
ENCOUNTERS OUR DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. INVERTED-V LOOKING
SOUNDINGS MAY BE PRESENT AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT/SPEED OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUSPECT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU CLOUDS POURING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT IN COOL/CYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER DECREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS PROBABLY BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WX WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

I EXPECT THE VFR CONDTIONS (CLEAR BELOW 12000 FT) TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL CLOUDS MOVE INTO
THE TAF SITES. EVEN THEN CEILINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE AT OR ABOVE
12000 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER 21Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT
THE LAN...JXN...BTL AND MAYBE THE AZO TAF SITES HAVE THE GREATEST
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS (BASED ON HOW THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TOWARD EVENING). FOR NOW I HAVE PUT
VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES AND AM CALLING THAT GOOD. LATER TAF
FORECASTS SHOULD GIVE BETTER DETAIL TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
ONE POINT TO MAKE ABOUT THIS EVENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS THAT WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE... I WOULD EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS (THUNDERSTORMS OR NOT) MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20 PCT.
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WITH
WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.

HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE IN PRE GREEN UP MODE AND THE FINE FUELS ON
THE GROUND ARE EXTREMELY DRY... FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY.

COORDINATED THE HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH THE DNR AND FOREST SERVICE
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER WITH CALLS TO ACTIONS. SOCIAL MEDIA AND NWS GRR
HOMEPAGE ALSO USED TO GET THE WORD OUT.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY REDEVELOP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ARRIVE. HOWEVER DEW POINTS SHOULD BE
RISING THROUGH THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO MIN RH VALUES SHOULD
NOT BE AS LOW AS TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MINOR FLOODING EXISTS ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT CROTON AND EVART.
THE DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES ON ALL AREA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES.
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE ADVISORIES DROP OFF THE LIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...LOCAL IMPACTS MAY STILL BE EVIDENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE MUSKEGON RIVER.

LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
BEST CHANCES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THATS
WHEN RAIN IS MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ADVERSE
AFFECTS ON RIVERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM






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000
FXUS63 KAPX 202329
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
729 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA...UNTIL ANOTHER LOW CROSSES LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN ON THE DAMP SIDE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WE
WILL COOL OFF BUT DRY OUT AFTER THAT...WITH A LENGTHY PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

...PERIODIC SHOWERS NORTHERN LOWER/DRIZZLE GIVING WAY TO FOG EASTERN
UPPER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT WITH CONCOMITANT REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...REMNANT OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH IN
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.  NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FEEDING A BAND
OF RAIN THAT HAS BEEN FOCUSED MOSTLY ON THE STRAITS/TIP OF THE MITT
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXTENDS BACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FEEDING THE BACK END OF THE LINE
(WHERE A SMALL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM RESIDES AND IS
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN).  SUNSHINE HAS
BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S...WHILE UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S (THOUGH STARTING TO GET SOME BREAKS OPENING UP OVER LUCE
COUNTY).

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL SHIFT THIS
EVENING FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES TO THE M-32 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS SOUTH...WHILE BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY
PERSISTENCE...ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LATER.

TONIGHT: PERSISTENT THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  BUT WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING MECHANISM DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN HOW PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION MAY BE...AND THUS QPF IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN
QUASI-TRAINING NATURE OF SHOWER PROPAGATION.  INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE
APPROACHING MESO-VORTICITY CENTER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...THOUGH SOME DRIZZLE ALSO NOTED ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE THIS EVENING (AND ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE MITT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH BETTER THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH).  WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
CUTE WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING GIVEN BROAD UNFOCUSED NATURE OF
FORCING...SCATTERED/OCCASIONAL SHOWERS (WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER) WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE.
ANTICIPATE THAT CLOUDS WILL THIN NORTH OF THE BRIDGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ALREADY SMALL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS  (2-5F ACROSS EASTERN UPPER) FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: IMPACTS OF RAINFALL ON ALREADY
ABNORMALLY HIGH RIVER LEVELS.

LARGER SCALE OVERVIEW: A MESS. THAT ESSENTIALLY DESCRIBES THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS OF THE MID TERM PERIOD. INITIAL ZONAL FLOW
REGIME DEFINITELY EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARDS ONE OF MORE
AMPLIFICATION THROUGH COMBINATION OF STRONG PACIFIC JET CORES AND
STILL PROGGED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION. THE FORMER LOOKS TO KEEP THE PATTERN RESPECTABLY
ACTIVE...WHILE THE LATTER THEORETICALLY SHOULD HELP DRIVE THE
AMPLIFICATION PROCESS INTO HIGH GEAR. UNFORTUNATELY...ABOVE
PROCESSES ARE ALSO ONE WHICH OFTEN DRIVE SIGNIFICANT INTRA AND INTER
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. SO...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
EARLY ON IN THE FORECAST...THE SAME DEFINITELY CANNOT BE SAID FROM
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD ONWARD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. ACCESSING TIMING/COVERAGE/AND AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF SUCH ON AREA
RIVERS.

DETAILS: STILL GOING TO BE DEALING WITH CURRENT RAIN PRODUCING NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO START THE WORK WEEK. ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NICE CORRIDOR OF
RER UPPER JET DYNAMICS OVER TOP THE FRONTAL AXIS. ABOVE SHOULD NO
DOUBT SPAWN A SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL RIDE UP AND ALONG THE FRONT
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF GUIDANCE DEBATE ON JUST
HOW ABOVE EXACTLY UNFOLDS...WHICH IS REALLY NO SURPRISE GIVEN DUAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRUCTURE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
MONDAY. RAINS APPEAR A PRETTY SAFE BET ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
ORIGINAL LOW LEVEL SURFACE FRONT WILL RESIDE. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS
FURTHER NORTH...WITH CONCERNS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE "CUT-OFF"
BY LOWER MICHIGAN FRONT...NEVER DIRECTLY LINKING WITH APPROACHING
RATHER STRONG NORTHERN MID LEVEL WAVE. ABOVE KINDA MAKES SENSE...
ALTHOUGH DO FEEL LATEST NAM-WRF/GFS PROGS ARE A TOUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THEIR SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN STRENGTH OF APPROACHING NORTHERN
WAVE. ACTUALLY REALLY LIKE INHERITED FORECAST KEEPING HIGHEST RAIN
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE LEAVING SOME CHANCY POPS A TOUCH
FURTHER NORTH UP INTO THE STRAITS. MAIN SLUG OF RAIN EXPECTED TO
PULL STEADILY OFF TO THE EAST EARLY MONDAY EVENING. SOME CONCERN FOR
A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH PASSAGE OF MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE. WILL INTRODUCE THIS
IDEA...TARGETING FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
BETTER COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE...
ESPECIALLY MONDAY. WARM SECTOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S ONCE AGAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE BARRING WIDESPREAD RAINS. DEFINITELY SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED...KEEPING THAT AREA IN THE 40S AND 50S.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER DIRECTLY TIED
TO EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND RAIN COVERAGE...WITH A SEVERAL DEGREE
SPREAD POSSIBLE OVER SHORT DISTANCES AND TIME FRAMES. TOUCH EASIER
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ROUND
OF CAA DEVELOPS. READINGS BY TUESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL (MAINLY IN THE 40S)...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ADDING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CHILL. THROW IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND YOU GET THE IDEA...NOT PLEASANT!

RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS ANY DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. HPC`S QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS LOOK
REASONABLE (SREF PLUMES CONCUR)...WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
MANAGEABLE FOR AREA RIVERS.

DRY MID-WEEK GIVES WAY TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...WITH STRONG GUIDANCE SUPPORT THAT NEXT WAVE CARVES OUT FAIRLY
DEEP NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING BY THURSDAY...WHICH SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS OCCURS LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WAA REGIME SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL PRECIP TO FALL AS A TOUCH OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE EVAP COOLING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. PATTERN CURRENTLY ARGUES FOR MORE OF A SHOWERY THREAT
THERE-ON-AFTER AS UPPER TROUGHING OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
REALLY WAVERING ON DEPTH OF THIS TROUGHING/ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD
AIR...WITH AT LEAST SOME HINTS STOUT CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIDGE BUILDING
HELPS REALLY DEEPEN SUCH. SOME OF THE COLDER SOLUTIONS DEFINITELY
SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIP CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN HEADING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TOO MUCH PRECIP WORDING FOR MY LIKING...SO WILL
KEEP THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND DRY. THIS...HOWEVER...IS SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON SPEED OF PATTERN PROGRESSION. PLENTY OF TIME TO
REVISIT ALL THE ABOVE IN THE COMING DAYS...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE NOT ONLY POSSIBLE...BUT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SUMMARY: A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS:

PLN: CONFIDENCE HIGHEST HERE FOR RESTRICTIONS...WITH FOG/DRIZZLE
SETTING IN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
EXPECTED.  FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRAS.

MBL/TVC/APN:  SHRAS SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MVFR VSBYS INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.

WINDS: WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE PLN-APN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT
MBL/TVC.  FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AGAIN FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10KTS DEVELOP TOWARDS EVENING
/EXCEPT AT APN WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING/.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: CONVECTIVE INDICES SUGGEST NON-ZERO THUNDER CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES MBL AND
POINTS SOUTH. PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SPECIFIC MENTION IN
THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ARNOTT






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000
FXUS63 KDTX 202256
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
656 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR BELOW 10KFT TONIGHT AND MONDAY GIVEN THE
EXISTENCE OF A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST WHILE INCREASING INTO
THE 10 KNOT RANGE ON MONDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY DRY NEAR SURFACE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON EVIDENCED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE
FALLEN DOWN INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE 20.12Z KDTX SOUNDING
SHOWED THE DEPTH OF THIS DRY AIR TO BE SIGNIFICANT...FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH 11 KFT AGL. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SETTLING IS
FORECASTED TO OCCUR AT A BROAD WAVELENGTH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BLOCKED TO THE NORTH...TO SETTLE SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME VIRGA OR ENHANCED MIDLEVEL
CLOUD COULD BRUSH BAY/MIDLAND COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE
01-06Z TIMEFRAME. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...LOW DEWPOINTS AND
PERSISTENT RIDGING SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL...WITH
A MAX/MIN DIFFERENCE OF ROUGHLY 25 DEGREES. FORECASTED LOWS TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER INTO THE 40S IN THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 WEST.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

DEEPENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL AMPLIFICATION IN THE DOWNSTREAM
HEIGHT FIELD HEADING INTO MID WEEK. STRONG AGREEMENT IS NOTED AMONG
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IN SHOWING WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION NOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING
OVER SE MI INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON MON DESPITE THE WEAKENING
OF THIS SYSTEM. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN IOWA TROUGH THE STRAITS REGION.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW
AND THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HOLD THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO MON AFTERNOON. IN
LIGHT OF REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS...THE GFS APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY TOO
BULLISH ON TIMING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SE MI. THUS THE
NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF WHICH HOLD THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
THUS PRECIP CHANCES LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING APPEAR
REASONABLE. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOOD S-SW FLOW SHOULD
THEN ENABLE FAIRLY DEEP MIXING DEPTHS INTO MON AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S.

THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO NRN LOWER MI BY MON EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AND
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
/ISOLATED THUNDER/ LATE IN THE DAY. AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET MAX. THE ENHANCED RESPONSE
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET WILL INVOKE A DEEPER FRONTAL
CIRCULATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. CONTINUED LONG WAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION EAST OF THE REGION WILL USHER IN DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER AIR BY DAYBREAK TUES. SO TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE TYPICAL MID APRIL SPECTRUM INTO MID WEEK. THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA PRECIP FREE TUES AND
WED. DIURNALLY ENHANCED DAYTIME CU/STRATO CU ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE IN
LIGHT OF THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY ON TUES
CONSIDERING MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TRAVERSING LOWER MI.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP TO THE WEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING
IN DRYER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

MARINE...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKES AND A
RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS ACROSS LAKE HURON
MONDAY EVENING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE
EARLY TUES MORNING AND PERSIST INTO TUES AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR
ADVANCES SOUTH. THE CHANCES OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS STILL LOOK LOW
AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DOES LOOK POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING CALMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC/DE
MARINE.......SC


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000
FXUS63 KMQT 202039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

QUITE THE DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
TO THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT
MOVED THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SLOWLY SLID SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW MAINLY
LOCATED IN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN (SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE SEEING 0.5-0.6IN OF ACCUMULATION) HAS
HELD TEMPS DOWN AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S (AIDED BY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE). MEANWHILE...JUST A SHORT DISTANCE TO
THE WEST AND THE SUNSHINE HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER
60S TO A FEW 70S AT THE RAWS SITES IN THE WESTERN U.P. THIS
SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT INDICATED ON
THE 12Z KINL RAOB HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE WESTERN U.P.

OVERALL...THERE WILL BE TWO FEATURES THAT WILL BE INFLUENCING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
FIRST...THE THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS
CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH HOW FAR
NORTH THIS FEATURE TRACKS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN ADDITION TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS
MORNING THERE WAS MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW...AS THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. BUT
WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW AND A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT THE 700-500MB FLOW TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. THIS WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE DRIER AIR
SEEN ON THE 12Z KABR/KBIS/KINL SOUNDINGS TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA AND HELP KEEP THE SHOWERS AT BAY. STILL THINK THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SOME MID CLOUD
COVER AS THE 850MB FLOW TAKES A LITTLE LONGER TO VEER TO THE WEST.
WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. FOR
THE REST OF THE CWA...THE CLEARING SEEN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO THE DRY AIR
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY AND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING IN. THESE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL SOME LOCATIONS COULD EVEN FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S...WHICH WOULD BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. WITH THESE
FALLING TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS...IT LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE DEEPER MIXING HAS ALLOWED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
OVER THE WEST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE THE CENTRAL CWA IS
STILL IN THE LOW-MID 40S WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
CLOUDS. USING THOSE VALUES AS THE CROSSOVER TEMP TO GET A ROUGH
IDEA...WOULD EXPECT GROUND FOG TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION PATCHY FOG AWAY FROM THE MORE CLOUDY SOUTH CENTRAL AND DID
TREND UP TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE.

FOR MONDAY...THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW BRUSHING THE AREA WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY
DEPARTING THE ROCKIES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THAT TRACK ALONG THE BORDER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. AN
ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE LOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND
INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE AND POTENTIAL MERGING WITH THE EXISTING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA. WITH THE
BULK OF THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA
(ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST EDGE DOES SWEEP OVER THE WESTERN CWA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON) AND LIMITED MOISTURE SEEN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...HAVE TO THINK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN
FEATURE WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH THE MORE
WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THUS...LIKE THE
GENERALLY DRY IDEA SHOWN BY THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR TOMORROW. THE
GEM-REGIONAL SHOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA (LOWER 50S
OVER THE SOUTH HALF) DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND IF THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAT MAY BE REASONABLE. BUT WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH THE INCREASING
10-15KFT CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...DON/T THINK DEWPOINTS WILL
GET THAT HIGH (ML DEWPOINTS WITH MOST MODELS IN THE LOWER 40S EAST
AND UPPER 30S WEST IN THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH). THUS...WOULD EXPECT THE INSTABILITY SHOWN ON
THE GEM-REGIONAL (MLCAPES OF 300-700J/KG) TO BE OVERDONE AND LARGELY
DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION IT DEVELOPS. DUE TO THOSE
EXPECTATIONS...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. DID LEAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD AIR DROPPING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF THE SOUNDINGS
END UP AS DRY AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z NAM/GFS...DON/T EVEN THINK THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANY PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY
FOR THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND NORMAL NEAR THE LAKE SHORES. MIXING
TO 900-850MB TEMPS SHOWN ON THE NAM WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE
LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR AND KEEP VALUES A LITTLE
COOLER. THEN AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...WOULD EXPECT COOLING
OVER THE WEST WITH WINDS OFF THE ICE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A SERIES OF FAIRLY ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CONUS
OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...CAN`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS DEVELOPING/CLOSING OFF AND
SLOWING THE PROGRESSION DOWN. IF SO...DEPENDING ON WHERE IT
HAPPENS...SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD BE IN THE OFFING ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE SEASON SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES MON NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVING WED. ON ITS HEELS
WILL BE THE NEXT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
THE WRN CONUS TUE. BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK...THIS SHORTWAVE TROF WILL HAVE INTERACTED WITH A NRN
STREAM WAVE DROPPING S THRU CNTRL CANADA. DEPENDING ON WHERE/WHEN
THE INTERACTION BTWN THE 2 WAVES OCCURS...PTYPE COULD BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE DURING THE PRIMARY PUSH OF PCPN ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE. FEATURES INVOLVED
ARE CERTAINLY FAR ENOUGH OUT IN THE FCST CYCLE FOR IMPORTANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO OCCUR. IN ANY EVENT...THE INFUSION OF THE NRN STREAM
WAVE WILL RESULT IN A DUMP OF COLDER AIR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. BEYOND THIS 7 DAY FORECAST...
THERE ARE HINTS FLOW COULD BECOME QUITE BLOCKY ACROSS CANADA WHICH
MAY HOLD COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA.
SO...TEMPS NEXT WEEK ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL RANGE RATHER THAN ABOVE NORMAL. KEEP IN MIND NORMALS NEXT
WEEK ARE GENERALLY 50S N TO LOW/MID 60S S.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING
THRU THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE EXITING THE E IN THE EVENING. UNDER CAA
REGIME MON NIGHT...NAM/GFS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE N/NNW WIND UPLSOPE AREAS...WHICH
RAISES THE PROSPECT FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ TO DEVELOP AS MOISTURE DOES
NOT EXTEND TO -10C ISOTHERM. LOW CONFIDENCE IF IT WILL HAPPEN... BUT
THE E WOULD BE MOST FAVORED.

AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND THEN LIKELY A PERIOD
OF BKN CU DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN UNDER 850MB
THERMAL TROF...SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE AFTN AS MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLES INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. N TO NW GRADIENT WIND AIDED BY LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. WELL INLAND...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50F UNDER LATE APR SUNSHINE.

IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SETS UP TUE NIGHT UNDER SFC HIGH
PRES AND CLEAR SKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 40-60PCT OF NORMAL WILL
AID THE COOLING PROCESS. FAVORED THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY WHERE DECENT SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST. TRADITIONAL
COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP INTO THE TEENS.

SFC HIGH PRES SLIPS E WED. ALTHOUGH 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOW PCPN
REACHING WRN UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY WED ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LEAD
SHORTWAVE CUTTING THRU MID/UPPER RIDGE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LATE WEEK SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THRU THE
AFTN AS EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT EMANATING FROM DEPARTING
SFC HIGH SHOULD HELP HOLD LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. 12Z RUNS HAVE
SLOWED EASTWARD PCPN PROGRESSION...SO DRY FCST SEEMS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

DESPITE COMPLEXITIES IN THE FLOW REGIME...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE W
COAST TUE AND REACHING THE GREAT LAKES FRI. WITH PUSH OF STRONGEST
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARRIVING THU...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE USED AT
THAT TIME AS AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
GEM/ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C WED NIGHT THRU THU ON
FRONT SIDE OF SYSTEM...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY
WARM FOR ONLY RAIN GIVEN THAT IT`S LATE APR. STILL...IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE INTERACTION IT HAS WITH
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS. WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH OF
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF SYSTEM TO RESULT IN ANOTHER LATE SEASON SNOW FOR
THE W AND N HIGHER TERRAIN. TODAYS 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DEEPER WITH
THE MIDLEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT/FRI.
IF VALID...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH DEFORMATION
PCPN SHIELD IMPACTING WRN AND NRN UPPER MI THU NIGHT/FRI.

ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL WIND DOWN/END SAT AS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
E. TEMPS SAT WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL IN THE 30S N TO LOW/MID 40S
SCNTRL. ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION IS EXPECTED SUN AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS DRY AIR HAS SURGED OVER THE THREE TAF SITES.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS
IF/WHEN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPS. HAVE FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MUCH OF THE TIMING ON THE FOG AND INTENSITY. KIWD MAY END UP BEING
THE HIGHEST WITH VERY LIGHT AND UNFAVORABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY LIMITING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INFLUENCING KCMX AND HAVE NOT WENT AS LOW AS INDICATED BY SOME OF
THE MOS. AS FOR KSAW...THINK THEY HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO FALL
TO LIFR BASED OFF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPOING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FOG
TO BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING AS MIXING INCREASE AND SOME MID
CLOUDS TO APPROACH TOWARDS AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (LESS THAN 20KTS) ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN THIS EVENING. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRODUCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WINDS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW 25KTS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OVER THE W AND N PROBABLY RUNS IN THE 5 TO 9
INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WARMER CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THRU MON WILL RESULT IN DECENT/STEADY SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF WITH
RIVERS RISING MORE QUICKLY AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...A SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE MON NIGHT/TUE. WITH LOW TEMPS SLIPPING BLO FREEZING MON
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT (THE COLDEST NIGHT)...SNOWMELT RUNOFF
WILL EASE. TEMPS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL BLO...WED
THRU FRI BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR DROPS TEMPS
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...PARTICULARLY THU.

WITH A COUPLE OF COLDER PERIODS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR NOW...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON
IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA COUNTY...COULD
EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KAPX 202004
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA...UNTIL ANOTHER LOW CROSSES LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN ON THE DAMP SIDE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WE
WILL COOL OFF BUT DRY OUT AFTER THAT...WITH A LENGTHY PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

...PERIODIC SHOWERS NORTHERN LOWER/DRIZZLE GIVING WAY TO FOG EASTERN
UPPER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT WITH CONCOMITANT REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...REMNANT OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH IN
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.  NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FEEDING A BAND
OF RAIN THAT HAS BEEN FOCUSED MOSTLY ON THE STRAITS/TIP OF THE MITT
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXTENDS BACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FEEDING THE BACK END OF THE LINE
(WHERE A SMALL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM RESIDES AND IS
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN).  SUNSHINE HAS
BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S...WHILE UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S (THOUGH STARTING TO GET SOME BREAKS OPENING UP OVER LUCE
COUNTY).

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL SHIFT THIS
EVENING FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES TO THE M-32 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS SOUTH...WHILE BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY
PERSISTENCE...ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LATER.

TONIGHT: PERSISTENT THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  BUT WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING MECHANISM DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN HOW PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION MAY BE...AND THUS QPF IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN
QUASI-TRAINING NATURE OF SHOWER PROPAGATION.  INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE
APPROACHING MESO-VORTICITY CENTER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...THOUGH SOME DRIZZLE ALSO NOTED ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE THIS EVENING (AND ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE MITT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH BETTER THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH).  WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
CUTE WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING GIVEN BROAD UNFOCUSED NATURE OF
FORCING...SCATTERED/OCCASIONAL SHOWERS (WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER) WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE.
ANTICIPATE THAT CLOUDS WILL THIN NORTH OF THE BRIDGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ALREADY SMALL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS  (2-5F ACROSS EASTERN UPPER) FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: IMPACTS OF RAINFALL ON ALREADY
ABNORMALLY HIGH RIVER LEVELS.

LARGER SCALE OVERVIEW: A MESS. THAT ESSENTIALLY DESCRIBES THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS OF THE MID TERM PERIOD. INITIAL ZONAL FLOW
REGIME DEFINITELY EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARDS ONE OF MORE
AMPLIFICATION THROUGH COMBINATION OF STRONG PACIFIC JET CORES AND
STILL PROGGED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION. THE FORMER LOOKS TO KEEP THE PATTERN RESPECTABLY
ACTIVE...WHILE THE LATTER THEORETICALLY SHOULD HELP DRIVE THE
AMPLIFICATION PROCESS INTO HIGH GEAR. UNFORTUNATELY...ABOVE
PROCESSES ARE ALSO ONE WHICH OFTEN DRIVE SIGNIFICANT INTRA AND INTER
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. SO...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
EARLY ON IN THE FORECAST...THE SAME DEFINITELY CANNOT BE SAID FROM
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD ONWARD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. ACCESSING TIMING/COVERAGE/AND AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF SUCH ON AREA
RIVERS.

DETAILS: STILL GOING TO BE DEALING WITH CURRENT RAIN PRODUCING NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO START THE WORK WEEK. ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NICE CORRIDOR OF
RER UPPER JET DYNAMICS OVER TOP THE FRONTAL AXIS. ABOVE SHOULD NO
DOUBT SPAWN A SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL RIDE UP AND ALONG THE FRONT
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF GUIDANCE DEBATE ON JUST
HOW ABOVE EXACTLY UNFOLDS...WHICH IS REALLY NO SURPRISE GIVEN DUAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRUCTURE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
MONDAY. RAINS APPEAR A PRETTY SAFE BET ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
ORIGINAL LOW LEVEL SURFACE FRONT WILL RESIDE. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS
FURTHER NORTH...WITH CONCERNS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE "CUT-OFF"
BY LOWER MICHIGAN FRONT...NEVER DIRECTLY LINKING WITH APPROACHING
RATHER STRONG NORTHERN MID LEVEL WAVE. ABOVE KINDA MAKES SENSE...
ALTHOUGH DO FEEL LATEST NAM-WRF/GFS PROGS ARE A TOUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THEIR SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN STRENGTH OF APPROACHING NORTHERN
WAVE. ACTUALLY REALLY LIKE INHERITED FORECAST KEEPING HIGHEST RAIN
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE LEAVING SOME CHANCY POPS A TOUCH
FURTHER NORTH UP INTO THE STRAITS. MAIN SLUG OF RAIN EXPECTED TO
PULL STEADILY OFF TO THE EAST EARLY MONDAY EVENING. SOME CONCERN FOR
A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH PASSAGE OF MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE. WILL INTRODUCE THIS
IDEA...TARGETING FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
BETTER COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE...
ESPECIALLY MONDAY. WARM SECTOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S ONCE AGAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE BARRING WIDESPREAD RAINS. DEFINITELY SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED...KEEPING THAT AREA IN THE 40S AND 50S.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER DIRECTLY TIED
TO EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND RAIN COVERAGE...WITH A SEVERAL DEGREE
SPREAD POSSIBLE OVER SHORT DISTANCES AND TIME FRAMES. TOUCH EASIER
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ROUND
OF CAA DEVELOPS. READINGS BY TUESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL (MAINLY IN THE 40S)...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ADDING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CHILL. THROW IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND YOU GET THE IDEA...NOT PLEASANT!

RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS ANY DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. HPC`S QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS LOOK
REASONABLE (SREF PLUMES CONCUR)...WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
MANAGEABLE FOR AREA RIVERS.

DRY MID-WEEK GIVES WAY TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...WITH STRONG GUIDANCE SUPPORT THAT NEXT WAVE CARVES OUT FAIRLY
DEEP NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING BY THURSDAY...WHICH SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS OCCURS LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WAA REGIME SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL PRECIP TO FALL AS A TOUCH OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE EVAP COOLING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. PATTERN CURRENTLY ARGUES FOR MORE OF A SHOWERY THREAT
THERE-ON-AFTER AS UPPER TROUGHING OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
REALLY WAVERING ON DEPTH OF THIS TROUGHING/ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD
AIR...WITH AT LEAST SOME HINTS STOUT CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIDGE BUILDING
HELPS REALLY DEEPEN SUCH. SOME OF THE COLDER SOLUTIONS DEFINITELY
SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIP CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN HEADING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TOO MUCH PRECIP WORDING FOR MY LIKING...SO WILL
KEEP THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND DRY. THIS...HOWEVER...IS SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON SPEED OF PATTERN PROGRESSION. PLENTY OF TIME TO
REVISIT ALL THE ABOVE IN THE COMING DAYS...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE NOT ONLY POSSIBLE...BUT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

PERIODIC SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES. FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND PLN LATE WITH
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 201958
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

QUITE THE DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
TO THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT
MOVED THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SLOWLY SLID SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW MAINLY
LOCATED IN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN (SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE SEEING 0.5-0.6IN OF ACCUMULATION) HAS
HELD TEMPS DOWN AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S (AIDED BY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE). MEANWHILE...JUST A SHORT DISTANCE TO
THE WEST AND THE SUNSHINE HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER
60S TO A FEW 70S AT THE RAWS SITES IN THE WESTERN U.P. THIS
SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT INDICATED ON
THE 12Z KINL RAOB HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE WESTERN U.P.

OVERALL...THERE WILL BE TWO FEATURES THAT WILL BE INFLUENCING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
FIRST...THE THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS
CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH HOW FAR
NORTH THIS FEATURE TRACKS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN ADDITION TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS
MORNING THERE WAS MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW...AS THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. BUT
WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW AND A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT THE 700-500MB FLOW TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. THIS WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE DRIER AIR
SEEN ON THE 12Z KABR/KBIS/KINL SOUNDINGS TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA AND HELP KEEP THE SHOWERS AT BAY. STILL THINK THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SOME MID CLOUD
COVER AS THE 850MB FLOW TAKES A LITTLE LONGER TO VEER TO THE WEST.
WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. FOR
THE REST OF THE CWA...THE CLEARING SEEN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO THE DRY AIR
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY AND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING IN. THESE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL SOME LOCATIONS COULD EVEN FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S...WHICH WOULD BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. WITH THESE
FALLING TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS...IT LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE DEEPER MIXING HAS ALLOWED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
OVER THE WEST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE THE CENTRAL CWA IS
STILL IN THE LOW-MID 40S WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
CLOUDS. USING THOSE VALUES AS THE CROSSOVER TEMP TO GET A ROUGH
IDEA...WOULD EXPECT GROUND FOG TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION PATCHY FOG AWAY FROM THE MORE CLOUDY SOUTH CENTRAL AND DID
TREND UP TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE.

FOR MONDAY...THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW BRUSHING THE AREA WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY
DEPARTING THE ROCKIES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THAT TRACK ALONG THE BORDER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. AN
ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE LOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND
INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE AND POTENTIAL MERGING WITH THE EXISTING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA. WITH THE
BULK OF THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA
(ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST EDGE DOES SWEEP OVER THE WESTERN CWA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON) AND LIMITED MOISTURE SEEN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...HAVE TO THINK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN
FEATURE WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH THE MORE
WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THUS...LIKE THE
GENERALLY DRY IDEA SHOWN BY THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR TOMORROW. THE
GEM-REGIONAL SHOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA (LOWER 50S
OVER THE SOUTH HALF) DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND IF THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAT MAY BE REASONABLE. BUT WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH THE INCREASING
10-15KFT CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...DON/T THINK DEWPOINTS WILL
GET THAT HIGH (ML DEWPOINTS WITH MOST MODELS IN THE LOWER 40S EAST
AND UPPER 30S WEST IN THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH). THUS...WOULD EXPECT THE INSTABILITY SHOWN ON
THE GEM-REGIONAL (MLCAPES OF 300-700J/KG) TO BE OVERDONE AND LARGELY
DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION IT DEVELOPS. DUE TO THOSE
EXPECTATIONS...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. DID LEAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD AIR DROPPING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF THE SOUNDINGS
END UP AS DRY AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z NAM/GFS...DON/T EVEN THINK THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANY PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY
FOR THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND NORMAL NEAR THE LAKE SHORES. MIXING
TO 900-850MB TEMPS SHOWN ON THE NAM WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE
LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR AND KEEP VALUES A LITTLE
COOLER. THEN AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...WOULD EXPECT COOLING
OVER THE WEST WITH WINDS OFF THE ICE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER
MIXING RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S. THE
INITIAL LOW STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF THE MN BORDER THROUGH NE IA AT
12Z WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR MONDAY...AS THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS S OF THE WI BORDER. EXPECT A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF
THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FIGURED.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE NEARLY OVERHEAD AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
DECREASED WINDS AND LOWERED MORNING TEMPS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON
STRONG 850-925MB WINDS STILL 35-50KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NOT GET INTO TOO MANY OF THE SPECIFICS OTHER THAN TO
NOTE THAT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FRIDAY EVENING...IF NOT ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

LARGE 1036MB INCH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CANADA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BUILD TO NEAR 1044MB
OVER HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI WHENEVER THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS E ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS DRY AIR HAS SURGED OVER THE THREE TAF SITES.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS
IF/WHEN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPS. HAVE FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MUCH OF THE TIMING ON THE FOG AND INTENSITY. KIWD MAY END UP BEING
THE HIGHEST WITH VERY LIGHT AND UNFAVORABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY LIMITING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INFLUENCING KCMX AND HAVE NOT WENT AS LOW AS INDICATED BY SOME OF
THE MOS. AS FOR KSAW...THINK THEY HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO FALL
TO LIFR BASED OFF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPOING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FOG
TO BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING AS MIXING INCREASE AND SOME MID
CLOUDS TO APPROACH TOWARDS AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (LESS THAN 20KTS) ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN THIS EVENING. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRODUCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WINDS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW 25KTS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT STEADY MELTING...SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OR COOLER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS TODAY
WILL AVERAGE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS W UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE W HIGH TERRAIN /AS OF
FRIDAY MORNING/ HAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH
LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...KF







000
FXUS63 KDTX 201954
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
354 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY DRY NEAR SURFACE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON EVIDENCED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE
FALLEN DOWN INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE 20.12Z KDTX SOUNDING
SHOWED THE DEPTH OF THIS DRY AIR TO BE SIGNIFICANT...FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH 11 KFT AGL. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SETTLING IS
FORECASTED TO OCCUR AT A BROAD WAVELENGTH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BLOCKED TO THE NORTH...TO SETTLE SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME VIRGA OR ENHANCED MIDLEVEL
CLOUD COULD BRUSH BAY/MIDLAND COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE
01-06Z TIMEFRAME. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...LOW DEWPOINTS AND
PERSISTENT RIDGING SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL...WITH
A MAX/MIN DIFFERENCE OF ROUGHLY 25 DEGREES. FORECASTED LOWS TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER INTO THE 40S IN THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

DEEPENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL AMPLIFICATION IN THE DOWNSTREAM
HEIGHT FIELD HEADING INTO MID WEEK. STRONG AGREEMENT IS NOTED AMONG
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IN SHOWING WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION NOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING
OVER SE MI INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON MON DESPITE THE WEAKENING
OF THIS SYSTEM. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN IOWA TROUGH THE STRAITS REGION.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW
AND THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HOLD THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO MON AFTERNOON. IN
LIGHT OF REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS...THE GFS APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY TOO
BULLISH ON TIMING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SE MI. THUS THE
NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF WHICH HOLD THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
THUS PRECIP CHANCES LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING APPEAR
REASONABLE. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOOD S-SW FLOW SHOULD
THEN ENABLE FAIRLY DEEP MIXING DEPTHS INTO MON AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S.

THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO NRN LOWER MI BY MON EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AND
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
/ISOLATED THUNDER/ LATE IN THE DAY. AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET MAX. THE ENHANCED RESPONSE
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET WILL INVOKE A DEEPER FRONTAL
CIRCULATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. CONTINUED LONG WAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION EAST OF THE REGION WILL USHER IN DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER AIR BY DAYBREAK TUES. SO TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE TYPICAL MID APRIL SPECTRUM INTO MID WEEK. THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA PRECIP FREE TUES AND
WED. DIURNALLY ENHANCED DAYTIME CU/STRATO CU ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE IN
LIGHT OF THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY ON TUES
CONSIDERING MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TRAVERSING LOWER MI.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP TO THE WEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING
IN DRYER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKES AND A
RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS ACROSS LAKE HURON
MONDAY EVENING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE
EARLY TUES MORNING AND PERSIST INTO TUES AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR
ADVANCES SOUTH. THE CHANCES OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS STILL LOOK LOW
AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DOES LOOK POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING CALMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 155 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS A DEEP LAYER OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR BELOW 15KFT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THEY SLOWLY VEER FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC/DE
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIREWEATHER

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

EXPECT ONE MORE WARM DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 70 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN COLDER AIR AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN COOL
BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE STILL ON TRACK FOR A MONDAY EVENING FRONTAL
PASSAGE... WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TOTAL QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE
LUDINGTON AREA. ACTUALLY LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR COULD EVEN
STAY DRY UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY.

INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT SOME SKINNY CAPE IS PRESENT IN THE FCST
SOUNDINGS WITH MU CAPES UP TO 700 J/KG. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTAINING GUSTY
WINDS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS CONVECTION
ENCOUNTERS OUR DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. INVERTED-V LOOKING
SOUNDINGS MAY BE PRESENT AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT/SPEED OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUSPECT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU CLOUDS POURING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT IN COOL/CYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER DECREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS PROBABLY BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WX WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AND SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN KMKG MONDAY
MORNING AND A LITTLE FURTHER SE INTO KGRR AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THE
SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 18Z
MONDAY. CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20 PCT.
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WITH
WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.

HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE IN PRE GREEN UP MODE AND THE FINE FUELS ON
THE GROUND ARE EXTREMELY DRY... FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY.

COORDINATED THE HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH THE DNR AND FOREST SERVICE
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER WITH CALLS TO ACTIONS. SOCIAL MEDIA AND NWS GRR
HOMEPAGE ALSO USED TO GET THE WORD OUT.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY REDEVELOP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ARRIVE. HOWEVER DEW POINTS SHOULD BE
RISING THROUGH THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO MIN RH VALUES SHOULD
NOT BE AS LOW AS TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MINOR FLOODING EXISTS ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT CROTON AND EVART.
THE DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES ON ALL AREA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES.
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE ADVISORIES DROP OFF THE LIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...LOCAL IMPACTS MAY STILL BE EVIDENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE MUSKEGON RIVER.

LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
BEST CHANCES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THATS
WHEN RAIN IS MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ADVERSE
AFFECTS ON RIVERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM










000
FXUS63 KDTX 201755
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
155 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS A DEEP LAYER OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR BELOW 15KFT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THEY SLOWLY VEER FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
ARE LUMBERING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH THE WESTERN LOW
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD MI. FOR TODAY THIS ALL LEAVES LIGHT
FLOW AND A SFC HIGH SPRAWLING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS THE NE CONUS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT WILL PRETTY MUCH STAY WHERE
THEY ARE AT AS ZONAL FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL STEER A SFC LOW UP AND AROUND IT TAKING IT THROUGH NORTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY. IT WILL LAY OUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN
MI BUT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE WITH
THE BLOCKING HIGH IN PLACE THUS IT WILL END UP ORIENTATING ITSELF
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW /W TO E/ KEEPING IT TO OUR NORTH WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SW TODAY
ALLOWING WAA REGIME TO KICK IN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MID APRIL
SUN. WITH MIXING DEPTHS APPROACHING 850MB WHERE TEMPS ARE NEAR
10C...MOST PLACES SHOULD MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 70 DEGREES WITH WESTERN
MOST COUNTIES INTO THE LOW 70S. THE SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE OF A PLAYER UP THERE. IF CLOUDS CAN
HOLD OFF OR STAY THIN...THEY TOO SHOULD WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70. ON
THE OTHER HAND IF CLOUDS MOVE IN A LITTLE FASTER AND THICKEN UP THEY
WILL LIKELY BE HELD IN THE MID 60S. NOT A BAD SPRING DAY REGARDLESS.
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED TONIGHT AS CLOUDS SLOWLY MARCH
SOUTHWARD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WAA...INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING LL MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOW 40S. MAY GET A FEW DROPS OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY TOWARD MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH WITH THAT SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

AFTER SLOWING FURTHER IN 12Z MODEL SUITE...LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING
COLD FROPA TIMING REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE RECENT 00Z SUITE
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY
AND THE ENSUING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DTX CWA MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF
POPS AND WX AS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS STILL APPEARS TO CENTER
IN THE 02Z-08Z TIME WINDOW WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AFTER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NOTABLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS THIS
SYSTEM PHASING INTO THE POLAR JET STREAM AS IT LIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S
TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY AND LOWER/MID 50S WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO AREA BEHIND THIS EXITING STORM SYSTEM...WITH DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS HIGH ALSO LEADING TO WIDESPREAD 30S
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE INTO LATE WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A MILD AND
UNSETTLED AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY AS COLDER AIR IS HELD AT BAY UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND AFTER THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN AS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE SYSTEM OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS
DRAWN NORTHEAST AROUND DEVELOPING UPPER LOW...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY STRETCHED EAST
TO THE COASTAL NORTH ATLANTIC.

MARINE...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF
TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT AFTER LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY LATE MONDAY WILL ALLOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SURGE
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER LAKE HURON AS THIS COLDER AIR BUILDS
SOUTH...AND WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING CALMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KMQT 201705
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
105 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.

TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER
MIXING RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S. THE
INITIAL LOW STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF THE MN BORDER THROUGH NE IA AT
12Z WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR MONDAY...AS THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS S OF THE WI BORDER. EXPECT A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF
THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FIGURED.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE NEARLY OVERHEAD AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
DECREASED WINDS AND LOWERED MORNING TEMPS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON
STRONG 850-925MB WINDS STILL 35-50KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NOT GET INTO TOO MANY OF THE SPECIFICS OTHER THAN TO
NOTE THAT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FRIDAY EVENING...IF NOT ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

LARGE 1036MB INCH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CANADA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BUILD TO NEAR 1044MB
OVER HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI WHENEVER THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS E ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS DRY AIR HAS SURGED OVER THE THREE TAF SITES.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS
IF/WHEN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPS. HAVE FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MUCH OF THE TIMING ON THE FOG AND INTENSITY. KIWD MAY END UP BEING
THE HIGHEST WITH VERY LIGHT AND UNFAVORABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY LIMITING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INFLUENCING KCMX AND HAVE NOT WENT AS LOW AS INDICATED BY SOME OF
THE MOS. AS FOR KSAW...THINK THEY HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO FALL
TO LIFR BASED OFF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPOING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FOG
TO BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING AS MIXING INCREASE AND SOME MID
CLOUDS TO APPROACH TOWARDS AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT STEADY MELTING...SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OR COOLER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS TODAY
WILL AVERAGE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS W UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE W HIGH TERRAIN /AS OF
FRIDAY MORNING/ HAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH
LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201652
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1255 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND MONDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THESE SHOWERS
COINCIDE WITH THE LOCATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT WON/T AFFECT TODAY/S FORECAST MUCH. STILL
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE CWA. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHC POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS JUST TIMING THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA.
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA TONIGHT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE A BIT
MORE AMBITIOUS WITH INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LOWER ELEVATED LI/S
MONDAY OVER THE NW CWA. WE ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE NW CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT/S IN THIS AREA THAT MUCAPE CLIMBS TO 600 J/KG AFTER
18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CROSSING CENTRAL LOWER.

COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WASN/T A DEEP LOW TO BEGIN WITH SO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
50S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RES EURO LOOKS WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THEN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND CONTAIN LIFT
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A RAIN
SHOWER...SO LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECASTED.  GFS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT HIGH RES EURO KEEPS THE INSTABILITY SOUTH.  THIS
IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE THUNDER THREAT
TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS THEN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE
FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AND SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN KMKG MONDAY
MORNING AND A LITTLE FURTHER SE INTO KGRR AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THE
SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 18Z
MONDAY. CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOWER 70S WITH DEW PTS OF 25-35. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 20 TO 25 PCT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON DURING PK HEATING...
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT WHERE
ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS ARE PRESENT.

WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS COULD
APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS
ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.

HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE IN PRE GREEN UP MODE AND THE FINE FUELS ON
THE GROUND ARE EXTREMELY DRY... FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY.
YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF GRASS FIRES WHICH SPREAD QUICKLY.

COORDINATED THE HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH THE DNR AND FOREST SERVICE
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER WITH CALLS TO ACTIONS. SOCIAL MEDIA AND NWS GRR
HOMEPAGE ALSO USED TO GET THE WORD OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MINOR FLOODING EXISTS ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT CROTON AND EVART.
THE DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES ON ALL AREA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES.
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE ADVISORIES DROP OFF THE LIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...LOCAL IMPACTS MAY STILL BE EVIDENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE MUSKEGON RIVER.

LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
BEST CHANCES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THATS
WHEN RAIN IS MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ADVERSE
AFFECTS ON RIVERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 201553
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1153 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND MONDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THESE SHOWERS
COINCIDE WITH THE LOCATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT WON/T AFFECT TODAY/S FORECAST MUCH. STILL
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE CWA. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHC POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS JUST TIMING THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA.
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA TONIGHT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE A BIT
MORE AMBITIOUS WITH INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LOWER ELEVATED LI/S
MONDAY OVER THE NW CWA. WE ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE NW CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT/S IN THIS AREA THAT MUCAPE CLIMBS TO 600 J/KG AFTER
18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CROSSING CENTRAL LOWER.

COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WASN/T A DEEP LOW TO BEGIN WITH SO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
50S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RES EURO LOOKS WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THEN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND CONTAIN LIFT
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A RAIN
SHOWER...SO LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECASTED.  GFS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT HIGH RES EURO KEEPS THE INSTABILITY SOUTH.  THIS
IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE THUNDER THREAT
TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS THEN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE
FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS PREVAILS. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
IT IS LOCATED ABOVE 10000 FT...SO SOME CLOUDINESS THERE. WIND
VALUES WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT AS WE WARM UP...THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. MOST OF
THE TIME ANY GUSTS WILL BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOWER 70S WITH DEW PTS OF 25-35. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 20 TO 25 PCT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON DURING PK HEATING...
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT WHERE
ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS ARE PRESENT.

WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS COULD
APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS
ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.

HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE IN PRE GREEN UP MODE AND THE FINE FUELS ON
THE GROUND ARE EXTREMELY DRY... FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY.
YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF GRASS FIRES WHICH SPREAD QUICKLY.

COORDINATED THE HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH THE DNR AND FOREST SERVICE
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER WITH CALLS TO ACTIONS. SOCIAL MEDIA AND NWS GRR
HOMEPAGE ALSO USED TO GET THE WORD OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MINOR FLOODING EXISTS ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT CROTON AND EVART.
THE DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES ON ALL AREA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES.
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE ADVISORIES DROP OFF THE LIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...LOCAL IMPACTS MAY STILL BE EVIDENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE MUSKEGON RIVER.

LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
BEST CHANCES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THATS
WHEN RAIN IS MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ADVERSE
AFFECTS ON RIVERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 201541
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1141 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF MICHIGAN TODAY WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DAMP WEATHER THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD TODAY AND
MONDAY...THEN COOL OFF AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HAVE CONSOLIDATED RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO A CORRIDOR NEAR WHERE
CURRENT RAIN BAND IS OCCURRING...BUT ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ADVECT INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE CURRENT RAIN
BAND (ROUGHLY DOWN TO A MANISTEE/TRAVERSE CITY/GRAYLING/HARRISVILLE
LINE). EXPECT NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO SAG A BIT
SOUTH...PROBABLY IMPACT THE STRAITS REGION OUT TO DRUMMOND ISLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH DRY OVER NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS...LOTS OF SUN SOUTH OF A HOUGHTON
LAKE/OSCODA LINE TO START THE AFTERNOON THOUGH MID CLOUDS SHOULD
SPREAD BACK IN. CLOUDY ELSEWHERE THOUGH MAY SEE SOME CLEAR LATER
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...LIKELY PUSHING 70 DEGREES OVER
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
STUCK IN THE 30S TO MID 40S BENEATH THE RAIN BAND...WITH CLOUD
COVER IN BETWEEN LIKELY TEMPERING AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT THOUGH
AREAS SOUTH OF THE RAIN BAND SHOULD PUSH IN THE 60S (PERHAPS AT
GAYLORD AS WELL UNLESS A RAIN SHOWER CAN KNOCK THINGS BACK...WILL
BE CLOSE).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

ROUGHLY 85 MILE WIDE RAIN BAND CENTERED ON THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC...
EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. QUICK UPDATE TO COVER MORNING
TRENDS...CURRENT RAIN AREA NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH JUST A SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT EXPECTED...SO PULLED RAIN
CHANCES FROM SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY
WITH SOME EARLY SUN. ATTEMPTED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EARLY
AFTERNOON RAIN DISTRIBUTION BUT THAT LOOKS TO REQUIRE MORE
THOUGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

CURRENTLY, INTERESTING SET UP AS THE 500 MB JET IS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY SFC
FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS HAS SET UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS SET
TO SHARPEN AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT THE SFC AND AT 850 MB.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN E UPPER.

TODAY...WITH THE RADAR SHOWING SOME SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN RAIN IN UPPER MICHIGAN, IN N LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER,
THINK THAT THE TIMING WHILE A TOUCH SLOWER IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.
SEEMS THAT THE ECMWF QPF FIELD MAY HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, AS THE GFS HAS MORE DRY AND IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN ECMWF, AND THE NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE RAIN NOT EVEN
GETTING INTO NW LOWER UNTIL AFTER 12Z. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF TIMING OVER THE DAY AS THE BEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE STRAITS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AND THEN
SLIDING SOUTH AFTER 12Z. BY 18Z THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AND SO THAT
THE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, THAT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. AS A WHOLE IT WILL REMAIN
LIKELY THAT A GOOD PORTION OF N LOWER WILL END UP WITH MEASURABLE
RAIN.

TONIGHT...THE GFS BEGINS TO PULL MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AS THE
FRONT LAYS OUT OVER N LOWER. A STRONGER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
06Z, WHICH THEN BEGINS TO REORGANIZE THE RAIN ALONG THE FRONT AGAIN.
IT LOOKS LIKE, DEPENDING ON THE MODEL THAT IS RIGHT THAT THERE COULD
BE ANOTHER 0.50" OF RAIN OR MORE, ALTHOUGH, THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE
LIKE IT IS CONVECTIVELY OVER DRIVEN AS THE SFC PRESSURE LOOK A BIT
TOO OVERDEVELOPED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL TRACK THRU NRN MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING... SHIFTING EAST OF OUR STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WEST OF OUR CWA AS THIS SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS...TRACKING OVER MAINLY NRN LWR MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING. NO DOUBT PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID WITH MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO
THE UPPER 60S IN OUR FAR SE CWA (COOLER NEAR THE LAKES). WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN MONDAY...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT EXITS EAST INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS CAA KICKS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE
CAA BRING PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
SAGINAW BAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
THRU THE COLUMN BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN IN
CONTROL THRU WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WX INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY CHURNS ITS WAY
THRU NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK. SYSTEM BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND LIFT (AND THUS PRECIP) WILL ARRIVE IN A SERIES
OF WAVES. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW
CENTER...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NW OF OUR
CWA. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW PER TEMP PROFILES...WITH SOME SNOW
MIXING WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NRN CWA AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES EAST OF OUR CWA AND LOW LEVEL CAA COMMENCES. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WARM THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW IN CAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT. LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS MIX TO THE SURFACE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201527
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1127 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
FIRE WEATHER

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND MONDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THESE SHOWERS
COINCIDE WITH THE LOCATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT WON/T AFFECT TODAY/S FORECAST MUCH. STILL
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE CWA. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHC POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS JUST TIMING THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA.
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA TONIGHT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE A BIT
MORE AMBITIOUS WITH INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LOWER ELEVATED LI/S
MONDAY OVER THE NW CWA. WE ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE NW CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT/S IN THIS AREA THAT MUCAPE CLIMBS TO 600 J/KG AFTER
18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CROSSING CENTRAL LOWER.

COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WASN/T A DEEP LOW TO BEGIN WITH SO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
50S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RES EURO LOOKS WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THEN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND CONTAIN LIFT
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A RAIN
SHOWER...SO LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECASTED.  GFS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT HIGH RES EURO KEEPS THE INSTABILITY SOUTH.  THIS
IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE THUNDER THREAT
TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS THEN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE
FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS PREVAILS. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
IT IS LOCATED ABOVE 10000 FT...SO SOME CLOUDINESS THERE. WIND
VALUES WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT AS WE WARM UP...THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. MOST OF
THE TIME ANY GUSTS WILL BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOWER 70S WITH DEW PTS OF 25-35. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 20 TO 25 PCT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON DURING PK HEATING...
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT WHERE
ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS ARE PRESENT.

WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS COULD
APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS
ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.

HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE IN PRE GREEN UP MODE AND THE FINE FUELS ON
THE GROUND ARE EXTREMELY DRY... FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY.
YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF GRASS FIRES WHICH SPREAD QUICKLY.

COORDINATED THE HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH THE DNR AND FOREST SERVICE
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER WITH CALLS TO ACTIONS. SOCIAL MEDIA AND NWS GRR
HOMEPAGE ALSO USED TO GET THE WORD OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...HOVING







000
FXUS63 KAPX 201259
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
859 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF MICHIGAN TODAY WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DAMP WEATHER THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD TODAY AND
MONDAY...THEN COOL OFF AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

ROUGHLY 85 MILE WIDE RAIN BAND CENTERED ON THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC...
EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. QUICK UPDATE TO COVER MORNING
TRENDS...CURRENT RAIN AREA NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH JUST A SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT EXPECTED...SO PULLED RAIN
CHANCES FROM SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY
WITH SOME EARLY SUN. ATTEMPTED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EARLY
AFTERNOON RAIN DISTRIBUTION BUT THAT LOOKS TO REQUIRE MORE
THOUGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

CURRENTLY, INTERESTING SET UP AS THE 500 MB JET IS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY SFC
FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS HAS SET UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS SET
TO SHARPEN AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT THE SFC AND AT 850 MB.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN E UPPER.

TODAY...WITH THE RADAR SHOWING SOME SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN RAIN IN UPPER MICHIGAN, IN N LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER,
THINK THAT THE TIMING WHILE A TOUCH SLOWER IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.
SEEMS THAT THE ECMWF QPF FIELD MAY HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, AS THE GFS HAS MORE DRY AND IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN ECMWF, AND THE NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE RAIN NOT EVEN
GETTING INTO NW LOWER UNTIL AFTER 12Z. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF TIMING OVER THE DAY AS THE BEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE STRAITS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AND THEN
SLIDING SOUTH AFTER 12Z. BY 18Z THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AND SO THAT
THE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, THAT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. AS A WHOLE IT WILL REMAIN
LIKELY THAT A GOOD PORTION OF N LOWER WILL END UP WITH MEASURABLE
RAIN.

TONIGHT...THE GFS BEGINS TO PULL MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AS THE
FRONT LAYS OUT OVER N LOWER. A STRONGER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
06Z, WHICH THEN BEGINS TO REORGANIZE THE RAIN ALONG THE FRONT AGAIN.
IT LOOKS LIKE, DEPENDING ON THE MODEL THAT IS RIGHT THAT THERE COULD
BE ANOTHER 0.50" OF RAIN OR MORE, ALTHOUGH, THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE
LIKE IT IS CONVECTIVELY OVER DRIVEN AS THE SFC PRESSURE LOOK A BIT
TOO OVERDEVELOPED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL TRACK THRU NRN MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING... SHIFTING EAST OF OUR STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WEST OF OUR CWA AS THIS SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS...TRACKING OVER MAINLY NRN LWR MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING. NO DOUBT PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID WITH MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO
THE UPPER 60S IN OUR FAR SE CWA (COOLER NEAR THE LAKES). WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN MONDAY...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT EXITS EAST INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS CAA KICKS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE
CAA BRING PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
SAGINAW BAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
THRU THE COLUMN BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN IN
CONTROL THRU WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WX INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY CHURNS ITS WAY
THRU NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK. SYSTEM BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND LIFT (AND THUS PRECIP) WILL ARRIVE IN A SERIES
OF WAVES. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW
CENTER...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NW OF OUR
CWA. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW PER TEMP PROFILES...WITH SOME SNOW
MIXING WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NRN CWA AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES EAST OF OUR CWA AND LOW LEVEL CAA COMMENCES. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WARM THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW IN CAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT. LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS MIX TO THE SURFACE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR







000
FXUS63 KMQT 201139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.

TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER
MIXING RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S. THE
INITIAL LOW STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF THE MN BORDER THROUGH NE IA AT
12Z WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR MONDAY...AS THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS S OF THE WI BORDER. EXPECT A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF
THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FIGURED.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE NEARLY OVERHEAD AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
DECREASED WINDS AND LOWERED MORNING TEMPS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON
STRONG 850-925MB WINDS STILL 35-50KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NOT GET INTO TOO MANY OF THE SPECIFICS OTHER THAN TO
NOTE THAT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FRIDAY EVENING...IF NOT ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

LARGE 1036MB INCH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CANADA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BUILD TO NEAR 1044MB
OVER HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI WHENEVER THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS E ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LINGERING PATCHY FOG/MVFR VSBY AT SAW EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WL
GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MRNG AS DIURNAL HEATING DISSIPATES
THE FOG. OTRW...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES INTO THIS EVNG AS A WEAK HI PRES RDG/DRIER AIR WORK INTO UPR
MI. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY MID LVL AIR OVER MELTING SN UNDER THE
LINGERING SFC RDG ALLOWING FOR SGNFT RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG
TO DVLP AT ALL 3 SITES. THE BEST CHC FOR IFR VSBYS WL BE AT CMX AND
SAW WITH A MORE FVRBL LIGHT ESE LLVL WIND.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT STEADY MELTING...SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OR COOLER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS TODAY
WILL AVERAGE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS W UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE W HIGH TERRAIN /AS OF
FRIDAY MORNING/ HAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH
LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 201046
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF MICHIGAN TODAY WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DAMP WEATHER THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD TODAY AND
MONDAY...THEN COOL OFF AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

CURRENTLY, INTERESTING SET UP AS THE 500 MB JET IS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY SFC
FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS HAS SET UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS SET
TO SHARPEN AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT THE SFC AND AT 850 MB.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN E UPPER.

TODAY...WITH THE RADAR SHOWING SOME SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN RAIN IN UPPER MICHIGAN, IN N LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER,
THINK THAT THE TIMING WHILE A TOUCH SLOWER IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.
SEEMS THAT THE ECMWF QPF FIELD MAY HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, AS THE GFS HAS MORE DRY AND IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN ECMWF, AND THE NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE RAIN NOT EVEN
GETTING INTO NW LOWER UNTIL AFTER 12Z. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF TIMING OVER THE DAY AS THE BEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE STRAITS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AND THEN
SLIDING SOUTH AFTER 12Z. BY 18Z THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AND SO THAT
THE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, THAT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. AS A WHOLE IT WILL REMAIN
LIKELY THAT A GOOD PORTION OF N LOWER WILL END UP WITH MEASURABLE
RAIN.

TONIGHT...THE GFS BEGINS TO PULL MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AS THE
FRONT LAYS OUT OVER N LOWER. A STRONGER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
06Z, WHICH THEN BEGINS TO REORGANIZE THE RAIN ALONG THE FRONT AGAIN.
IT LOOKS LIKE, DEPENDING ON THE MODEL THAT IS RIGHT THAT THERE COULD
BE ANOTHER 0.50" OF RAIN OR MORE, ALTHOUGH, THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE
LIKE IT IS CONVECTIVELY OVER DRIVEN AS THE SFC PRESSURE LOOK A BIT
TOO OVERDEVELOPED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL TRACK THRU NRN MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING... SHIFTING EAST OF OUR STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WEST OF OUR CWA AS THIS SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS...TRACKING OVER MAINLY NRN LWR MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING. NO DOUBT PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID WITH MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO
THE UPPER 60S IN OUR FAR SE CWA (COOLER NEAR THE LAKES). WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN MONDAY...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT EXITS EAST INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS CAA KICKS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE
CAA BRING PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
SAGINAW BAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
THRU THE COLUMN BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN IN
CONTROL THRU WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WX INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY CHURNS ITS WAY
THRU NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK. SYSTEM BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND LIFT (AND THUS PRECIP) WILL ARRIVE IN A SERIES
OF WAVES. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW
CENTER...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NW OF OUR
CWA. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW PER TEMP PROFILES...WITH SOME SNOW
MIXING WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NRN CWA AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES EAST OF OUR CWA AND LOW LEVEL CAA COMMENCES. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WARM THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW IN CAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT. LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS MIX TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR







000
FXUS63 KDTX 201046
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
646 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS DEEP LAYER OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR BELOW 15KFT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AS THEY SLOWLY VEER FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
ARE LUMBERING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH THE WESTERN LOW
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD MI. FOR TODAY THIS ALL LEAVES LIGHT
FLOW AND A SFC HIGH SPRAWLING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS THE NE CONUS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT WILL PRETTY MUCH STAY WHERE
THEY ARE AT AS ZONAL FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL STEER A SFC LOW UP AND AROUND IT TAKING IT THROUGH NORTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY. IT WILL LAY OUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN
MI BUT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE WITH
THE BLOCKING HIGH IN PLACE THUS IT WILL END UP ORIENTATING ITSELF
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW /W TO E/ KEEPING IT TO OUR NORTH WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SW TODAY
ALLOWING WAA REGIME TO KICK IN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MID APRIL
SUN. WITH MIXING DEPTHS APPROACHING 850MB WHERE TEMPS ARE NEAR
10C...MOST PLACES SHOULD MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 70 DEGREES WITH WESTERN
MOST COUNTIES INTO THE LOW 70S. THE SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE OF A PLAYER UP THERE. IF CLOUDS CAN
HOLD OFF OR STAY THIN...THEY TOO SHOULD WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70. ON
THE OTHER HAND IF CLOUDS MOVE IN A LITTLE FASTER AND THICKEN UP THEY
WILL LIKELY BE HELD IN THE MID 60S. NOT A BAD SPRING DAY REGARDLESS.
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED TONIGHT AS CLOUDS SLOWLY MARCH
SOUTHWARD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WAA...INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING LL MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOW 40S. MAY GET A FEW DROPS OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY TOWARD MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH WITH THAT SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

AFTER SLOWING FURTHER IN 12Z MODEL SUITE...LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING
COLD FROPA TIMING REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE RECENT 00Z SUITE
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY
AND THE ENSUING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DTX CWA MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF
POPS AND WX AS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS STILL APPEARS TO CENTER
IN THE 02Z-08Z TIME WINDOW WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AFTER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NOTABLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS THIS
SYSTEM PHASING INTO THE POLAR JET STREAM AS IT LIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S
TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY AND LOWER/MID 50S WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO AREA BEHIND THIS EXITING STORM SYSTEM...WITH DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS HIGH ALSO LEADING TO WIDESPREAD 30S
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE INTO LATE WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A MILD AND
UNSETTLED AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY AS COLDER AIR IS HELD AT BAY UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND AFTER THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN AS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE SYSTEM OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS
DRAWN NORTHEAST AROUND DEVELOPING UPPER LOW...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY STRETCHED EAST
TO THE COASTAL NORTH ATLANTIC.

MARINE...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF
TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT AFTER LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY LATE MONDAY WILL ALLOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SURGE
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER LAKE HURON AS THIS COLDER AIR BUILDS
SOUTH...AND WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING CALMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KAPX 201046
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF MICHIGAN TODAY WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DAMP WEATHER THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD TODAY AND
MONDAY...THEN COOL OFF AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

CURRENTLY, INTERESTING SET UP AS THE 500 MB JET IS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY SFC
FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS HAS SET UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS SET
TO SHARPEN AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT THE SFC AND AT 850 MB.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN E UPPER.

TODAY...WITH THE RADAR SHOWING SOME SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN RAIN IN UPPER MICHIGAN, IN N LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER,
THINK THAT THE TIMING WHILE A TOUCH SLOWER IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.
SEEMS THAT THE ECMWF QPF FIELD MAY HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, AS THE GFS HAS MORE DRY AND IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN ECMWF, AND THE NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE RAIN NOT EVEN
GETTING INTO NW LOWER UNTIL AFTER 12Z. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF TIMING OVER THE DAY AS THE BEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE STRAITS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AND THEN
SLIDING SOUTH AFTER 12Z. BY 18Z THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AND SO THAT
THE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, THAT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. AS A WHOLE IT WILL REMAIN
LIKELY THAT A GOOD PORTION OF N LOWER WILL END UP WITH MEASURABLE
RAIN.

TONIGHT...THE GFS BEGINS TO PULL MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AS THE
FRONT LAYS OUT OVER N LOWER. A STRONGER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
06Z, WHICH THEN BEGINS TO REORGANIZE THE RAIN ALONG THE FRONT AGAIN.
IT LOOKS LIKE, DEPENDING ON THE MODEL THAT IS RIGHT THAT THERE COULD
BE ANOTHER 0.50" OF RAIN OR MORE, ALTHOUGH, THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE
LIKE IT IS CONVECTIVELY OVER DRIVEN AS THE SFC PRESSURE LOOK A BIT
TOO OVERDEVELOPED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL TRACK THRU NRN MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING... SHIFTING EAST OF OUR STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WEST OF OUR CWA AS THIS SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS...TRACKING OVER MAINLY NRN LWR MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING. NO DOUBT PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID WITH MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO
THE UPPER 60S IN OUR FAR SE CWA (COOLER NEAR THE LAKES). WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN MONDAY...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT EXITS EAST INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS CAA KICKS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE
CAA BRING PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
SAGINAW BAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
THRU THE COLUMN BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN IN
CONTROL THRU WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WX INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY CHURNS ITS WAY
THRU NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK. SYSTEM BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND LIFT (AND THUS PRECIP) WILL ARRIVE IN A SERIES
OF WAVES. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW
CENTER...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NW OF OUR
CWA. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW PER TEMP PROFILES...WITH SOME SNOW
MIXING WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NRN CWA AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES EAST OF OUR CWA AND LOW LEVEL CAA COMMENCES. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WARM THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW IN CAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT. LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS MIX TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR







000
FXUS63 KDTX 201046
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
646 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS DEEP LAYER OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR BELOW 15KFT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AS THEY SLOWLY VEER FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
ARE LUMBERING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH THE WESTERN LOW
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD MI. FOR TODAY THIS ALL LEAVES LIGHT
FLOW AND A SFC HIGH SPRAWLING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS THE NE CONUS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT WILL PRETTY MUCH STAY WHERE
THEY ARE AT AS ZONAL FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL STEER A SFC LOW UP AND AROUND IT TAKING IT THROUGH NORTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY. IT WILL LAY OUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN
MI BUT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE WITH
THE BLOCKING HIGH IN PLACE THUS IT WILL END UP ORIENTATING ITSELF
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW /W TO E/ KEEPING IT TO OUR NORTH WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SW TODAY
ALLOWING WAA REGIME TO KICK IN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MID APRIL
SUN. WITH MIXING DEPTHS APPROACHING 850MB WHERE TEMPS ARE NEAR
10C...MOST PLACES SHOULD MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 70 DEGREES WITH WESTERN
MOST COUNTIES INTO THE LOW 70S. THE SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE OF A PLAYER UP THERE. IF CLOUDS CAN
HOLD OFF OR STAY THIN...THEY TOO SHOULD WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70. ON
THE OTHER HAND IF CLOUDS MOVE IN A LITTLE FASTER AND THICKEN UP THEY
WILL LIKELY BE HELD IN THE MID 60S. NOT A BAD SPRING DAY REGARDLESS.
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED TONIGHT AS CLOUDS SLOWLY MARCH
SOUTHWARD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WAA...INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING LL MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOW 40S. MAY GET A FEW DROPS OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY TOWARD MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH WITH THAT SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

AFTER SLOWING FURTHER IN 12Z MODEL SUITE...LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING
COLD FROPA TIMING REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE RECENT 00Z SUITE
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY
AND THE ENSUING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DTX CWA MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF
POPS AND WX AS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS STILL APPEARS TO CENTER
IN THE 02Z-08Z TIME WINDOW WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AFTER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NOTABLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS THIS
SYSTEM PHASING INTO THE POLAR JET STREAM AS IT LIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S
TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY AND LOWER/MID 50S WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO AREA BEHIND THIS EXITING STORM SYSTEM...WITH DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS HIGH ALSO LEADING TO WIDESPREAD 30S
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE INTO LATE WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A MILD AND
UNSETTLED AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY AS COLDER AIR IS HELD AT BAY UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND AFTER THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN AS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE SYSTEM OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS
DRAWN NORTHEAST AROUND DEVELOPING UPPER LOW...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY STRETCHED EAST
TO THE COASTAL NORTH ATLANTIC.

MARINE...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF
TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT AFTER LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY LATE MONDAY WILL ALLOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SURGE
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER LAKE HURON AS THIS COLDER AIR BUILDS
SOUTH...AND WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING CALMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201006
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
606 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND MONDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THESE SHOWERS
COINCIDE WITH THE LOCATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT WON/T AFFECT TODAY/S FORECAST MUCH. STILL
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE CWA. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHC POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS JUST TIMING THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA.
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA TONIGHT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE A BIT
MORE AMBITIOUS WITH INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LOWER ELEVATED LI/S
MONDAY OVER THE NW CWA. WE ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE NW CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT/S IN THIS AREA THAT MUCAPE CLIMBS TO 600 J/KG AFTER
18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CROSSING CENTRAL LOWER.

COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WASN/T A DEEP LOW TO BEGIN WITH SO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
50S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RES EURO LOOKS WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THEN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND CONTAIN LIFT
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A RAIN
SHOWER...SO LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECASTED.  GFS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT HIGH RES EURO KEEPS THE INSTABILITY SOUTH.  THIS
IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE THUNDER THREAT
TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS THEN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE
FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS PREVAILS. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
IT IS LOCATED ABOVE 10000 FT...SO SOME CLOUDINESS THERE. WIND
VALUES WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT AS WE WARM UP...THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. MOST OF
THE TIME ANY GUSTS WILL BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING







000
FXUS63 KMQT 200834
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.

TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER
MIXING RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S. THE
INITIAL LOW STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF THE MN BORDER THROUGH NE IA AT
12Z WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR MONDAY...AS THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS S OF THE WI BORDER. EXPECT A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF
THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FIGURED.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE NEARLY OVERHEAD AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
DECREASED WINDS AND LOWERED MORNING TEMPS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON
STRONG 850-925MB WINDS STILL 35-50KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NOT GET INTO TOO MANY OF THE SPECIFICS OTHER THAN TO
NOTE THAT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FRIDAY EVENING...IF NOT ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

LARGE 1036MB INCH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CANADA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BUILD TO NEAR 1044MB
OVER HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI WHENEVER THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS E ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

PRECIPITATION ALONG TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AT THE 06Z FCST ISSUANCE. GIVEN ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KIWD AND
KCMX.

MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHC FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TO LIFT AT KSAW BY LATE SUN MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SW. NE LAKE BREEZE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

EXPECT LLWS AT KCMX AND KSAW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH A LOW-LVL
JET MAX JUST OFF THE SFC.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT STEADY MELTING...SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OR COOLER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS TODAY
WILL AVERAGE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS W UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE W HIGH TERRAIN /AS OF
FRIDAY MORNING/ HAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH
LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 200823
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
423 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.

TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES
COMING INTO AGREEMENT. DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
PHASING OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
AND ONE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE NORTHERN WAVE SLIDING FROM ALBERTA AT 00Z
MONDAY INTO EASTERN MANITOBA/NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. BY
00Z TUESDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH JUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE NAM FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH...BUT MOVES SLIGHTLY
QUICKER THAN THE REST. DIFFERENCES IN THE TILT OF THE TROUGH EXIST
BY THIS TIME...WITH THE ECMWF POSITIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
WEST...AND THE GFS/GEM/NAM NEUTRALLY/NEGATIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
EAST. THE GEM HAS A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.

THE SOUTHERN WAVE ALOFT IS FAIRLY BROAD AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS AT 00Z MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THE  GFS/ECMWF SPORT A POSITIVE TILT EXTENDING FROM
IOWA INTO OKLAHOMA. THE GEM/NAM HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH...DEVELOPING
ONLY THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT IN OKLAHOMA. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE MODELS
COME INTO SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...EXTENDING IT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

THESE TWO WAVES MERGE INTO A DISJOINTED TROUGH BY 18Z
TUESDAY...MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOGETHER AS A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

UNFORTUNATELY...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCLUDING WHETHER OR NOT SUNDAYS
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE S/SE CWA WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOWER
MI MONDAY OR BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING NORTHERN WAVE...ALLOWING THE A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW
TO CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS/NAM KEEP THE
DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER SOUTH OVER LOWER MI AND PUSH IT INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN WAVE DROPPING INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL CWA BEHIND THE MAIN
PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. OVERALL...DECIDED
TO BLEND WITH THE ECMWF/GFS...BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO THE EASTERN
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL FOR THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON MON EVE-TUESDAY AM.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE WARM...WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER UPPER MI
RANGING FROM 6C TO 8C. THIS PUTS HIGHS INLAND AND WEST INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MID 60S. AREAS EASTWARD WILL SEE MORE CLOUD
COVER...SO PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW TO MID
50S...AND IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SOME DAYS. WITH THE
RAIN AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER
RIVER FLOWS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY TUESDAY EVENING
AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...KEEPING WEATHER COOL AND QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN. AGREEMENT IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE MORE POTENT
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GEM/GFS...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA BY
18Z THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO DEEPER THAN THE GFS/GEM. THE GEM/GFS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS POPS AGAIN...GIVEN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH THE GFS/ECWMF
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...LEADING
TO ANOTHER COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

PRECIPITATION ALONG TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AT THE 06Z FCST ISSUANCE. GIVEN ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KIWD AND
KCMX.

MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHC FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TO LIFT AT KSAW BY LATE SUN MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SW. NE LAKE BREEZE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

EXPECT LLWS AT KCMX AND KSAW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH A LOW-LVL
JET MAX JUST OFF THE SFC.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS
6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM
LOCAL LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HIGH AS THE
LOW 40S...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING
CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO
THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SNOWMELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...SRF







000
FXUS63 KDTX 200737
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
ARE LUMBERING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH THE WESTERN LOW
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD MI. FOR TODAY THIS ALL LEAVES LIGHT
FLOW AND A SFC HIGH SPRAWLING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS THE NE CONUS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT WILL PRETTY MUCH STAY WHERE
THEY ARE AT AS ZONAL FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL STEER A SFC LOW UP AND AROUND IT TAKING IT THROUGH NORTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY. IT WILL LAY OUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN
MI BUT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE WITH
THE BLOCKING HIGH IN PLACE THUS IT WILL END UP ORIENTATING ITSELF
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW /W TO E/ KEEPING IT TO OUR NORTH WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SW TODAY
ALLOWING WAA REGIME TO KICK IN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MID APRIL
SUN. WITH MIXING DEPTHS APPROACHING 850MB WHERE TEMPS ARE NEAR
10C...MOST PLACES SHOULD MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 70 DEGREES WITH WESTERN
MOST COUNTIES INTO THE LOW 70S. THE SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE OF A PLAYER UP THERE. IF CLOUDS CAN
HOLD OFF OR STAY THIN...THEY TOO SHOULD WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70. ON
THE OTHER HAND IF CLOUDS MOVE IN A LITTLE FASTER AND THICKEN UP THEY
WILL LIKELY BE HELD IN THE MID 60S. NOT A BAD SPRING DAY REGARDLESS.
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED TONIGHT AS CLOUDS SLOWLY MARCH
SOUTHWARD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WAA...INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING LL MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOW 40S. MAY GET A FEW DROPS OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY TOWARD MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH WITH THAT SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

AFTER SLOWING FURTHER IN 12Z MODEL SUITE...LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING
COLD FROPA TIMING REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE RECENT 00Z SUITE
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY
AND THE ENSUING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DTX CWA MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF
POPS AND WX AS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS STILL APPEARS TO CENTER
IN THE 02Z-08Z TIME WINDOW WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AFTER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NOTABLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS THIS
SYSTEM PHASING INTO THE POLAR JET STREAM AS IT LIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S
TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY AND LOWER/MID 50S WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO AREA BEHIND THIS EXITING STORM SYSTEM...WITH DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS HIGH ALSO LEADING TO WIDESPREAD 30S
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE INTO LATE WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A MILD AND
UNSETTLED AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY AS COLDER AIR IS HELD AT BAY UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND AFTER THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN AS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE SYSTEM OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS
DRAWN NORTHEAST AROUND DEVELOPING UPPER LOW...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY STRETCHED EAST
TO THE COASTAL NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.MARINE...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF
TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT AFTER LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY LATE MONDAY WILL ALLOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SURGE
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER LAKE HURON AS THIS COLDER AIR BUILDS
SOUTH...AND WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING CALMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A DRY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES BELOW 15K FT
TONIGHT.  LITTLE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEST
WINDS VEERED SLIGHTLY TOWARD A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KAPX 200726
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF MICHIGAN TODAY WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DAMP WEATHER THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD TODAY AND
MONDAY...THEN COOL OFF AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

CURRENTLY, INTERESTING SET UP AS THE 500 MB JET IS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY SFC
FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS HAS SET UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS SET
TO SHARPEN AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT THE SFC AND AT 850 MB.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN E UPPER.

TODAY...WITH THE RADAR SHOWING SOME SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN RAIN IN UPPER MICHIGAN, IN N LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER,
THINK THAT THE TIMING WHILE A TOUCH SLOWER IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.
SEEMS THAT THE ECMWF QPF FIELD MAY HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, AS THE GFS HAS MORE DRY AND IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN ECMWF, AND THE NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE RAIN NOT EVEN
GETTING INTO NW LOWER UNTIL AFTER 12Z. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF TIMING OVER THE DAY AS THE BEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE STRAITS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AND THEN
SLIDING SOUTH AFTER 12Z. BY 18Z THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AND SO THAT
THE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, THAT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. AS A WHOLE IT WILL REMAIN
LIKELY THAT A GOOD PORTION OF N LOWER WILL END UP WITH MEASURABLE
RAIN.

TONIGHT...THE GFS BEGINS TO PULL MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AS THE
FRONT LAYS OUT OVER N LOWER. A STRONGER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
06Z, WHICH THEN BEGINS TO REORGANIZE THE RAIN ALONG THE FRONT AGAIN.
IT LOOKS LIKE, DEPENDING ON THE MODEL THAT IS RIGHT THAT THERE COULD
BE ANOTHER 0.50" OF RAIN OR MORE, ALTHOUGH, THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE
LIKE IT IS CONVECTIVELY OVER DRIVEN AS THE SFC PRESSURE LOOK A BIT
TOO OVERDEVELOPED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL TRACK THRU NRN MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING... SHIFTING EAST OF OUR STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WEST OF OUR CWA AS THIS SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS...TRACKING OVER MAINLY NRN LWR MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING. NO DOUBT PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID WITH MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO
THE UPPER 60S IN OUR FAR SE CWA (COOLER NEAR THE LAKES). WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN MONDAY...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT EXITS EAST INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS CAA KICKS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE
CAA BRING PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
SAGINAW BAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
THRU THE COLUMN BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN IN
CONTROL THRU WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WX INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY CHURNS ITS WAY
THRU NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK. SYSTEM BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND LIFT (AND THUS PRECIP) WILL ARRIVE IN A SERIES
OF WAVES. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW
CENTER...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NW OF OUR
CWA. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW PER TEMP PROFILES...WITH SOME SNOW
MIXING WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NRN CWA AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES EAST OF OUR CWA AND LOW LEVEL CAA COMMENCES. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WARM THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW IN CAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

RESTRICTIONS: OVERALL..CONDITIONS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY THAN SIX HOURS AGO BASED ON EVENING MODEL
EXPECTATIONS.  ONLY TERMINAL IMPACTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD BE
PLN...WITH A DETERIORATION TO MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BY DAYBREAK WITH
RA DEVELOPING.  EXPECT THAT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FOR THIS
RAINFALL TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THE IMPACT THE OTHER
TERMINALS...LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z TVC/APN AND EVEN LATER AT
MBL. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY AT THESE
SITES BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH MBL STILL LOOKING TO HOLD ONTO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AROUND 10KTS BEFORE
CONTINUING TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY 10KTS FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LLWS /CONFIDENCE: HIGH/: SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 0.5-1.5KFT LAYER ARE
NOW REACHING 30-35KTS AND THIS LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH SHEAR LAYER WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHEAR LAYER TO MIX OUT DURING THE MORNING
SUNDAY.

THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KGRR 200716
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND MONDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THESE SHOWERS
COINCIDE WITH THE LOCATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT WON/T AFFECT TODAY/S FORECAST MUCH. STILL
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE CWA. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHC POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS JUST TIMING THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA.
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA TONIGHT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE A BIT
MORE AMBITIOUS WITH INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LOWER ELEVATED LI/S
MONDAY OVER THE NW CWA. WE ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE NW CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT/S IN THIS AREA THAT MUCAPE CLIMBS TO 600 J/KG AFTER
18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CROSSING CENTRAL LOWER.

COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WASN/T A DEEP LOW TO BEGIN WITH SO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
50S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RES EURO LOOKS WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THEN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND CONTAIN LIFT
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A RAIN
SHOWER...SO LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECASTED.  GFS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT HIGH RES EURO KEEPS THE INSTABILITY SOUTH.  THIS
IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE THUNDER THREAT
TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS THEN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE
FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM 500 FT TO
1500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT SURFACE WINDS
SEEMS THE SHEAR IS NOT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LLWS. WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SKIES STAY CLEAR BELOW 12000 FT AGL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING










000
FXUS63 KMQT 200525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

A STRONG SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER MANITOBA IS PRODUCING A SURFACE
LOW OF 1004MB OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. AHEAD
OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST THROUGH
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LINE OF SHOWERS
STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WITH 12Z KMPX RAOB HAVING A PWAT OF
0.77IN. FATHER TO THE EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN
FEEDING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BELOW 800MB (SEEN ON 12Z KGRB/KAPX
SOUNDINGS) AND HAS LED TO A GENERALLY DRY DAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. A POCKET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
EARLIER TODAY DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES...BUT IT HAS SINCE SHIFTED
NORTHEAST. WITH THE FILTERED SUNSHINE...MIXING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE WEST ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER...WITH GENERALLY 40S ELSEWHERE. THE COLD SPOT IS
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH THE COOL FLOW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS WENT THROUGH.

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND PULL THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH IT. THE ASSOCIATED LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND KEEP THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN
CANADA. WHILE THAT IS OCCURRING...THE PUSH OF STRONG WAA AT
850-700MB THAT PRODUCED THE SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING (BRUSHING FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN) IS
SLIDING NORTHEAST AND BECOMES FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF/POPS
FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HELP OF THE RIGHT REAR OF THE
WEST-EAST ORIENTATED UPPER JET.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. AS THAT TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL MN TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND
ONSHORE IN THE WESTERN U.P. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS IDEA AND HAVE HIGH END LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS AS IT COMES ONSHORE. IN THE EVENING...MID LEVEL TROUGH
LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE LOWER LEVELS...LEADING
TO VEERING FLOW AT/ABOVE 700MB STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THAT OCCURS...THE LOWER LEVEL
(925-700MB) MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL REMAINS PEGGED OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NOSE OF THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
CO-LOCATED WITH THE PEAK OF THE 925-700MB WAA LARGELY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BECAUSE OF THAT SEPARATION...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE MORE SCATTERED/BROKEN EXPECTATIONS OVER
THE WEST THIS EVENING...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS FOR
A SLIGHT TREND DOWN TO THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS. BUT ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE EAST THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING BECOMES MORE
IN LINE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WOULD EXPECT SOME INCREASE
IN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL (NEAR
SURFACE) FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AT THAT
TIME...TAKING AWAY THE INFLUX OF DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR THAT MUCH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ALONG THAT MID LEVEL TROUGH...THERE IS A THIN
RIBBON OF PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 0.75-1.0...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...OPTED TO
FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE NON GFS QPF AMOUNTS...SINCE THAT
MODEL IS ABOUT DOUBLE THE REST OF THE MODELS. THAT PRODUCES AMOUNTS
OF 0.1-0.2IN OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND 0.3-0.5IN OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. THAT IDEA MATCHES UP WELL WITH 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 09Z/15Z
SREF PROBS FOR 12HR QPF.

WARM MOIST AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE AREA. BEHIND THE RAIN...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ON THE
EXTENT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE MORE LOW STRATUS THAN FOG.
THE WINDS WEAKEN THE MOST OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME FOG THERE...BUT THINK IT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EVEN THOUGH MELTING SNOW MAY MOISTEN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

SUNDAY...PRECIP LOCATION WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION AND TROUGH STALLS OUT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND
KEEP THEM NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVER THE NORTHWEST
1/3RD OF THE CWA THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWA DOES HAVE SOME QUESTIONS MARKS ON HOW MUCH 925-850MB
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME
CLEARING IN THE MORNING (UNLESS FOG/STRATUS SETS UP)...BUT THAT WILL
AID SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL U.P.
MEANWHILE...THE AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THE WARM AIR THAT HAS
SURGED NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SHOULD
SEE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL...WITH CLOUDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES
COMING INTO AGREEMENT. DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
PHASING OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
AND ONE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE NORTHERN WAVE SLIDING FROM ALBERTA AT 00Z
MONDAY INTO EASTERN MANITOBA/NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. BY
00Z TUESDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH JUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE NAM FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH...BUT MOVES SLIGHTLY
QUICKER THAN THE REST. DIFFERENCES IN THE TILT OF THE TROUGH EXIST
BY THIS TIME...WITH THE ECMWF POSITIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
WEST...AND THE GFS/GEM/NAM NEUTRALLY/NEGATIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
EAST. THE GEM HAS A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.

THE SOUTHERN WAVE ALOFT IS FAIRLY BROAD AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS AT 00Z MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THE  GFS/ECMWF SPORT A POSITIVE TILT EXTENDING FROM
IOWA INTO OKLAHOMA. THE GEM/NAM HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH...DEVELOPING
ONLY THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT IN OKLAHOMA. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE MODELS
COME INTO SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...EXTENDING IT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

THESE TWO WAVES MERGE INTO A DISJOINTED TROUGH BY 18Z
TUESDAY...MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOGETHER AS A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

UNFORTUNATELY...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCLUDING WHETHER OR NOT SUNDAYS
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE S/SE CWA WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOWER
MI MONDAY OR BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING NORTHERN WAVE...ALLOWING THE A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW
TO CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS/NAM KEEP THE
DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER SOUTH OVER LOWER MI AND PUSH IT INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN WAVE DROPPING INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL CWA BEHIND THE MAIN
PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. OVERALL...DECIDED
TO BLEND WITH THE ECMWF/GFS...BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO THE EASTERN
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL FOR THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON MON EVE-TUESDAY AM.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE WARM...WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER UPPER MI
RANGING FROM 6C TO 8C. THIS PUTS HIGHS INLAND AND WEST INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MID 60S. AREAS EASTWARD WILL SEE MORE CLOUD
COVER...SO PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW TO MID
50S...AND IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SOME DAYS. WITH THE
RAIN AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER
RIVER FLOWS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY TUESDAY EVENING
AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...KEEPING WEATHER COOL AND QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN. AGREEMENT IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE MORE POTENT
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GEM/GFS...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA BY
18Z THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO DEEPER THAN THE GFS/GEM. THE GEM/GFS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS POPS AGAIN...GIVEN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH THE GFS/ECWMF
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...LEADING
TO ANOTHER COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

PRECIPITATION ALONG TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AT THE 06Z FCST ISSUANCE. GIVEN ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KIWD AND
KCMX.

MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHC FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TO LIFT AT KSAW BY LATE SUN MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SW. NE LAKE BREEZE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

EXPECT LLWS AT KCMX AND KSAW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH A LOW-LVL
JET MAX JUST OFF THE SFC.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON SUNDAY AND BRING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY (GENERALLY BELOW
15KTS). A WEAK LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING AN INCREASE TO THE WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20KTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS
6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM
LOCAL LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HIGH AS THE
LOW 40S...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING
CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO
THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SNOWMELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 200524
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
124 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH EARLY SUNDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL STALL...LEADING TO A PERIOD
OF DAMP WEATHER THAT BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND LASTS UNTIL AT LEAST
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THEN COOL OFF YET AGAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HAVE SPED UP INITIAL RAIN SHIELD INTO EASTERN UPPER BY 1-2 HOURS
GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THIS IS FULLY
SUPPORTED BY RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS. FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IS
STILL THERE WITH DRM 33/26 AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH SMALLER
CHANCES AT ANJ 37/25 AND CIU 36/25. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS
AND WILL CONSIDER A SPS IF WE COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES /WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW ROAD SURFACES TO NEAR 32/.

NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...RAIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. SMALL CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN FAR EASTERN UPPER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
SUPPLIED BY A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF MICHIGAN...AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING CROSSING WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON.  WARM ADVECTION WEST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING
A THICKER BAND OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH RADAR RETURNS OUT OVER THE BIG LAKE THOUGH LOW
LAYERS WERE QUITE DRY.  NARROW LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO MINNESOTA...WITH
A CONCOMITANT BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS.

AS SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY...WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY "TIP OVER" TOWARD EASTERN
UPPER/FAR NORTHWEST LOWER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ADVECTING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 0.75-1.00 INCH).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TIMING OF RAIN THREAT INTO EASTERN UPPER
AND NORTHWEST LOWER TONIGHT...AND MAYBE A QUESTION OF PRECIP TYPE
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (FREEZING RAIN?).

TONIGHT: QUIET START TO THE EVENING AS CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER WILL LIKELY THIN OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING LATER.  EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION PUSH INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
PUSH EAST INTO FAR EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
AND M-55 CORRIDOR SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION BAND UPSTREAM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
INTENSITY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND SOME ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS GET INVOLVED.  SO
EXPECT 12H RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER OF 0.25-0.50+ INCH
TONIGHT.

OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...CURRENTLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40 THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S.  CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT SOUTH/
SOUTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
ONCE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES MAY BE VERY
CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THAT POINT ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
UPPER.  SO CAN`T RULE OUT SOME THREAT FOR A LITTLE FREEZING PRECIP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ST. MARY`S RIVER VICINITY...AND WILL HAVE A
"CHANCY" MENTION OF THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: EARLY WEEK RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON CURRENT RECEDING RIVER LEVELS.

LARGER SCALE OVERVIEW: SPLIT...KINDA ZONAL LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. INITIAL DEEP LAYER GULF MOISTURE FEED TIED TO
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW REGIME...AS EVIDENT BY BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTH CANADA SHORTWAVE HELPING DRIVE
A BAND OF LIGHTER RAINFALL INTO THE NORTHWEST LAKES AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PATTERN HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN...TIED TO
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSTREAM NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING
(NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION). INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SUITE AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY "BLOCKY"
PATTERN...AND DEFINITELY NOT ONE SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AND
SUSTAINED WARM-UPS IN OUR NEAR FUTURE. AS MENTIONED...HOWEVER...PAST
SEASONAL TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS STRONG BLOCKING...AND REALLY
HAVE TO WONDER IF PROGS ARE BEING OVERAMBITIOUS DRIVING ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. ACCESSING RAIN POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS THROUGH
EARLY WEEK AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF SUCH ON AREA RIVERS.

DETAILS: INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING RAINFALL FORECAST TO START THE
PERIOD. CURRENT SOUTHERN CANADA WAVE RACES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRAGGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA
AS IT DOES SO. FRONT BECOMES ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AS IT
INCREASINGLY ALIGNS ITSELF WITH MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. DECENT RER
JET DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HELPING FOCUS RAINS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL AXIS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. GUIDANCE TRENDS
FOR THE ABOVE HAVE BEEN NOTICEABLY SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH...
KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY (WHICH IS GOOD
THING AS GREATER IMPACTS/FLOODING FROM PAST EVENT WERE FURTHER
SOUTH). HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST SUCH WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF MID
LEVEL PARENT SYSTEM. STILL...HAVE TO WONDER OF COLDER LAKE WATERS
MAY DRIVE THIS FRONT A TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH. WILL HEDGE NORTH...BUT
LEAVE SOME WIGGLE ROOM VIA LESS THAN DESIRABLE BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. LOSS OF BEST UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
LIMITED MID LEVEL SUPPORT ARGUES FOR BETTER RAIN COVERAGE TO COME TO
AN END DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FRONT BECOME
RE-ENERGIZED HEADING INTO LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. EVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TEMP GRADIENT...FURTHER ENTICING
LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY WELL TRENDED
THIS DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH WILL BEGIN THE STEP-UP PROCESS OF
INCREASING POPS AND QPF. PASSAGE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH KEEPS
SOME SHOWER THREAT GOING MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DRY OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS FOR THE ALL IMPORTANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENT:
STEADY-STATE NATURE OF FRONTAL AXIS DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SOME DECENT
RAIN TOTALS...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS THIS OCCURS NORTH OF THE
HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS PAST WEEKS RAIN. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS UP
TO AND EXCEEDING A HALF INCH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN PROLONGED
NATURE AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO AOA ONE INCH LEVELS. STILL...LACK
OF BOTH MORE VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
THREAT (NO THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT
OF HAND...AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PERIOD WERE RAINFALL RATES
BECOME EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY (ALSO SUPPORTED BY NO SREF SUPPORT FOR
GREATER THAN HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN A THREE HOUR PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR EVEN GREATER THAN QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS IN THREE HOURS
BEING REALIZED). THUS...NO FLOOD WATCH WARRANTED...BUT DEFINITELY AN
EVENT TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH AND HEAVIER RAIN
SOLUTION...THE LATTER OF WHICH IS A RATHER LOW PROB SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD HIGHLY PREDICATED
BY RAIN COVERAGE/TIMING AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY NOT MIMIC REALITY...BUT EASILY ENVISION AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAKING A RUN INTO THE 60S (PERHAPS LOWER
70S?)...WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER TO THE NORTH. WILL
TREND FORECAST TOWARD A SHARPER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. IF THINGS WORK
OUT RIGHT (FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION)...GAYLORD JUST MIGHT SEE THEIR
FIRST 60 DEGREE DAY IN OVER HALF A YEAR! NOT SOLD ON THAT JUST
YET...HOWEVER. BACK TO 2014 SPRING REALITY ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN FALLING BACK THROUGH THE 40S AND 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PATTERN ATTEMPTS TO BECOME A TOUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED/SLOWER HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. SUPPORT IS RATHER HIGH THAT NEXT PACIFIC SLUG OF ENERGY WILL
HELP CARVE OUT RATHER ROBUST TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST
AFTER MID WEEK...WHICH LOOKS TO SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK PERIOD. EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
THIS SYSTEM IS ANYTHING BUT CERTAIN...AND WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN
THE COMING DAYS. ABOVE SIMPLY FORCES A MODEL BLEND FORECAST
APPROACH...AND ONE THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA THURSDAY RIGHT ON INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
TRY TO PINPOINT A DRY PERIOD. OF COURSE...GIVEN RECENT (AND COMING)
WET PATTERN...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RAIN POSSIBILITIES. AS OF
NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKENING/OCCLUDED SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
OVERHEAD...KEEPING RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS AT A MINIMUM. FINALLY
...SYSTEM BACKSIDE CAA LOOKS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO KEEP INHERITED
NOT ENTIRELY LIQUID PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH (REMEMBER...JUST THE MESSENGER HERE). SPEAKING OF
THOSE TEMPERATURES...WHILE DON`T SEE READINGS STRAYING EXCEPTIONALLY
FAR FROM NORMAL...OVERALL FLAVOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TENDENCY FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE READINGS. OF COURSE...EXACT NUMBERS WILL BE
ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON SYSTEM TIMING/RAINFALL COVERAGE/AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL PLACEMENT....WHICH...MY FRIENDS...ARE A LONG WAY FROM BEING
FIGURED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

RESTRICTIONS: OVERALL..CONDITIONS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY THAN SIX HOURS AGO BASED ON EVENING MODEL
EXPECTATIONS.  ONLY TERMINAL IMPACTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD BE
PLN...WITH A DETERIORATION TO MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BY DAYBREAK WITH
RA DEVELOPING.  EXPECT THAT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FOR THIS
RAINFALL TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THE IMPACT THE OTHER
TERMINALS...LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z TVC/APN AND EVEN LATER AT
MBL. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VSYBS LIKELY AT THESE
SITES BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH MBL STILL LOOKING TO HOLD ONTO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.


WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AROUND 10KTS BEFORE
CONTINUING TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY 10KTS FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LLWS /CONFIDENCE: HIGH/: SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 0.5-1.5KFT LAYER ARE
NOW REACHING 30-35KTS AND THIS LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH SHEAR LAYER WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHEAR LAYER TO MIX OUT DURING THE MORNING
SUNDAY.

THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KDTX 200359
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1159 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DRY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES BELOW 15K FT
TONIGHT.  LITTLE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEST
WINDS VEERED SLIGHTLY TOWARD A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE WARMED INTO THE 50S UNDER
FULL DAYTIME SUNSHINE. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS HOWEVER LED TO MUCH
COOLER READINGS ALONG THE LAKES ERIE/HURON SHORELINES. LINGERING SFC
RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
AND VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF INTO
THE 40S FOLLOWING SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE COOLING WILL BE EARLIER
AND MORE ABRUPT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AMBIENT EASTERLY FLOW ADVANCES THE MARINE LAYER WELL INLAND.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT BACKS TO THE
S-SE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN. THE UPPER WAVE NOW ROTATING ACROSS MANITOBA AND
SW ONTARIO WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER LOWER MI TONIGHT WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LITTLE CIRRUS TO SPILL INTO SE MI. THESE
FACTORS SUPPORT LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MINS /MAINLY LOW TO MID 30S/.

LONG TERM...

A VERY INTERESTING AND RARE HEIGHT CONFIGURATION IS IN PLACE WITH
SHORT WAVELENGTH HIGH INDEX FLOW. THE FIRST THING THAT WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING DUE TO
SOME LARGER OSCILLATION...LIKELY AT THE HEMISPHERIC SCALE.

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS LARGE SCALE RIDGE
BUILDING FOR SUNDAY BY DEFLECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. SURFACE RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A STRONG FOOTHOLD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THANKS TO
DRY AND STABLE AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TO HANG UP NORTH OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A LOW CHANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT DRY...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING HYDROMETEORS WOULD FALL OUT OF A CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 10-15 KFT. SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VIRGA.
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EXTREMELY PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND AMPLIFICATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT INBOUND
SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE REGIONALLY ON MONDAY. TREND OF
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GOING WITH A SLOWER TIMING
OF THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING. WENT DECIDEDLY DRIER WITH THE GRIDS FOR
MONDAY. WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I 69...BUT IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON WHETHER TO PULL THEM
COMPLETELY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE DAY TO BE NICE. IN
FACT...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WENT CONSIDERABLY WARMER TOO. HIGHS
MONDAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY WELL MIXED FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE
LOWER 70S. LAPSE RATES MONDAY EVENING STILL SUPPORT A THUNDER
MENTION...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO WEAK/MODEST TO
SUPPORT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM RISK.

LOW PRESSURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST WHICH LEAVES LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THUMB AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AND FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DOMINATING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP TO THE WEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL START TO BRING IN THE CLOUDS WITH WEAK
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY LOOKS TO THE BE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF GETTING WET WITH POPS A LITTLE ABOVE 50 PERCENT
TO START THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AN ELONGATED CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.

MARINE...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN REASONABLY QUIET INTO TONIGHT AS LIGHT EAST
FLOW...AVERAGING 10 KNOTS OR SO...CONTINUES TO FILTER OFF OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL THEN PASS NEAR THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...DROPPING
A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THIS AREA UNTIL THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DRAWS IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTH WINDS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB/DE
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 200338
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1138 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL FEATURE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND
OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AREAWIDE WILL COME ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS
LINE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S.

GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA OVER THE NW CWFA AROUND 00Z
TUESDAY AND IN THE SE CWFA AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. WILL CARRY A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS AND THE RAIN
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS.

STILL NOT ENOUGH CONVINCING EVIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO ADD THUNDER TO
THE FCST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. SFC DEWPTS STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG IS INDICATED. STILL SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN LATER FCSTS.

SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
MONDAY AS WELL BEFORE FROPA DUE TO AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES AROUND 25
PCT AND PRE GREEN UP CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THE FORECAST IS
MOST SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH WILL PICK UP WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOOKING TOO STABLE TO
INTRODUCE THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT... GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
DECENT LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY... SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. THERE SHOULD BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY... AS THE LOW MEANDERS BY
JUST TO THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM AND RISE TO
NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VALUES WILL FALL BACK
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 DEGREES AND NORMAL
LOWS ARE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM 500 FT TO
1500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT SURFACE WINDS
SEEMS THE SHEAR IS NOT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LLWS. WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SKIES STAY CLEAR BELOW 12000 FT AGL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING







000
FXUS63 KMQT 200138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
938 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

A STRONG SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER MANITOBA IS PRODUCING A SURFACE
LOW OF 1004MB OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. AHEAD
OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST THROUGH
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LINE OF SHOWERS
STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WITH 12Z KMPX RAOB HAVING A PWAT OF
0.77IN. FATHER TO THE EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN
FEEDING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BELOW 800MB (SEEN ON 12Z KGRB/KAPX
SOUNDINGS) AND HAS LED TO A GENERALLY DRY DAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. A POCKET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
EARLIER TODAY DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES...BUT IT HAS SINCE SHIFTED
NORTHEAST. WITH THE FILTERED SUNSHINE...MIXING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE WEST ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER...WITH GENERALLY 40S ELSEWHERE. THE COLD SPOT IS
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH THE COOL FLOW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS WENT THROUGH.

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND PULL THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH IT. THE ASSOCIATED LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND KEEP THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN
CANADA. WHILE THAT IS OCCURRING...THE PUSH OF STRONG WAA AT
850-700MB THAT PRODUCED THE SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING (BRUSHING FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN) IS
SLIDING NORTHEAST AND BECOMES FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF/POPS
FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HELP OF THE RIGHT REAR OF THE
WEST-EAST ORIENTATED UPPER JET.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. AS THAT TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL MN TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND
ONSHORE IN THE WESTERN U.P. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS IDEA AND HAVE HIGH END LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS AS IT COMES ONSHORE. IN THE EVENING...MID LEVEL TROUGH
LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE LOWER LEVELS...LEADING
TO VEERING FLOW AT/ABOVE 700MB STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THAT OCCURS...THE LOWER LEVEL
(925-700MB) MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL REMAINS PEGGED OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NOSE OF THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
CO-LOCATED WITH THE PEAK OF THE 925-700MB WAA LARGELY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BECAUSE OF THAT SEPARATION...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE MORE SCATTERED/BROKEN EXPECTATIONS OVER
THE WEST THIS EVENING...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS FOR
A SLIGHT TREND DOWN TO THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS. BUT ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE EAST THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING BECOMES MORE
IN LINE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WOULD EXPECT SOME INCREASE
IN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL (NEAR
SURFACE) FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AT THAT
TIME...TAKING AWAY THE INFLUX OF DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR THAT MUCH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ALONG THAT MID LEVEL TROUGH...THERE IS A THIN
RIBBON OF PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 0.75-1.0...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...OPTED TO
FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE NON GFS QPF AMOUNTS...SINCE THAT
MODEL IS ABOUT DOUBLE THE REST OF THE MODELS. THAT PRODUCES AMOUNTS
OF 0.1-0.2IN OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND 0.3-0.5IN OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. THAT IDEA MATCHES UP WELL WITH 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 09Z/15Z
SREF PROBS FOR 12HR QPF.

WARM MOIST AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE AREA. BEHIND THE RAIN...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ON THE
EXTENT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE MORE LOW STRATUS THAN FOG.
THE WINDS WEAKEN THE MOST OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME FOG THERE...BUT THINK IT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EVEN THOUGH MELTING SNOW MAY MOISTEN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

SUNDAY...PRECIP LOCATION WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION AND TROUGH STALLS OUT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND
KEEP THEM NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVER THE NORTHWEST
1/3RD OF THE CWA THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWA DOES HAVE SOME QUESTIONS MARKS ON HOW MUCH 925-850MB
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME
CLEARING IN THE MORNING (UNLESS FOG/STRATUS SETS UP)...BUT THAT WILL
AID SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL U.P.
MEANWHILE...THE AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THE WARM AIR THAT HAS
SURGED NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SHOULD
SEE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL...WITH CLOUDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES
COMING INTO AGREEMENT. DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
PHASING OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
AND ONE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE NORTHERN WAVE SLIDING FROM ALBERTA AT 00Z
MONDAY INTO EASTERN MANITOBA/NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. BY
00Z TUESDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH JUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE NAM FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH...BUT MOVES SLIGHTLY
QUICKER THAN THE REST. DIFFERENCES IN THE TILT OF THE TROUGH EXIST
BY THIS TIME...WITH THE ECMWF POSITIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
WEST...AND THE GFS/GEM/NAM NEUTRALLY/NEGATIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
EAST. THE GEM HAS A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.

THE SOUTHERN WAVE ALOFT IS FAIRLY BROAD AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS AT 00Z MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THE  GFS/ECMWF SPORT A POSITIVE TILT EXTENDING FROM
IOWA INTO OKLAHOMA. THE GEM/NAM HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH...DEVELOPING
ONLY THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT IN OKLAHOMA. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE MODELS
COME INTO SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...EXTENDING IT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

THESE TWO WAVES MERGE INTO A DISJOINTED TROUGH BY 18Z
TUESDAY...MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOGETHER AS A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

UNFORTUNATELY...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCLUDING WHETHER OR NOT SUNDAYS
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE S/SE CWA WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOWER
MI MONDAY OR BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING NORTHERN WAVE...ALLOWING THE A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW
TO CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS/NAM KEEP THE
DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER SOUTH OVER LOWER MI AND PUSH IT INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN WAVE DROPPING INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL CWA BEHIND THE MAIN
PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. OVERALL...DECIDED
TO BLEND WITH THE ECMWF/GFS...BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO THE EASTERN
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL FOR THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON MON EVE-TUESDAY AM.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE WARM...WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER UPPER MI
RANGING FROM 6C TO 8C. THIS PUTS HIGHS INLAND AND WEST INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MID 60S. AREAS EASTWARD WILL SEE MORE CLOUD
COVER...SO PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW TO MID
50S...AND IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SOME DAYS. WITH THE
RAIN AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER
RIVER FLOWS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY TUESDAY EVENING
AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...KEEPING WEATHER COOL AND QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN. AGREEMENT IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE MORE POTENT
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GEM/GFS...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA BY
18Z THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO DEEPER THAN THE GFS/GEM. THE GEM/GFS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS POPS AGAIN...GIVEN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH THE GFS/ECWMF
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...LEADING
TO ANOTHER COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 909 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

PRECIPITATION ALONG TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PASSED
THROUGH KIWD AND KCMX SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE AND WAS VERY LIGHT.
CEILINGS ALONG AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WRN TAF SITES REMAIN
VFR. GIVEN LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD
FOR BOTH KIWD AND KCMX.

MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND MORE LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHC FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT
ANY LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT AT KSAW BY LATE SUN MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE TO THE SW. NE LAKE BREEZE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID- AFTERNOON
SUNDAY.

EXPECT LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH A LOW-
LVL JET MAX JUST OFF THE SFC.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON SUNDAY AND BRING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY (GENERALLY BELOW
15KTS). A WEAK LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING AN INCREASE TO THE WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20KTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS
6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM
LOCAL LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HIGH AS THE
LOW 40S...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING
CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO
THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SNOWMELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF







000
FXUS63 KAPX 200124 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
924 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH EARLY SUNDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL STALL...LEADING TO A PERIOD
OF DAMP WEATHER THAT BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND LASTS UNTIL AT LEAST
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THEN COOL OFF YET AGAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HAVE SPED UP INITIAL RAIN SHIELD INTO EASTERN UPPER BY 1-2 HOURS
GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THIS IS FULLY
SUPPORTED BY RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS. FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IS
STILL THERE WITH DRM 33/26 AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH SMALLER
CHANCES AT ANJ 37/25 AND CIU 36/25. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS
AND WILL CONSIDER A SPS IF WE COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES /WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW ROAD SURFACES TO NEAR 32/.

NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...RAIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. SMALL CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN FAR EASTERN UPPER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
SUPPLIED BY A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF MICHIGAN...AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING CROSSING WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON.  WARM ADVECTION WEST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING
A THICKER BAND OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH RADAR RETURNS OUT OVER THE BIG LAKE THOUGH LOW
LAYERS WERE QUITE DRY.  NARROW LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO MINNESOTA...WITH
A CONCOMITANT BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS.

AS SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY...WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY "TIP OVER" TOWARD EASTERN
UPPER/FAR NORTHWEST LOWER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ADVECTING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 0.75-1.00 INCH).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TIMING OF RAIN THREAT INTO EASTERN UPPER
AND NORTHWEST LOWER TONIGHT...AND MAYBE A QUESTION OF PRECIP TYPE
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (FREEZING RAIN?).

TONIGHT: QUIET START TO THE EVENING AS CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER WILL LIKELY THIN OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING LATER.  EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION PUSH INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
PUSH EAST INTO FAR EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
AND M-55 CORRIDOR SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION BAND UPSTREAM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
INTENSITY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND SOME ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS GET INVOLVED.  SO
EXPECT 12H RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER OF 0.25-0.50+ INCH
TONIGHT.

OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...CURRENTLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40 THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S.  CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT SOUTH/
SOUTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
ONCE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES MAY BE VERY
CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THAT POINT ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
UPPER.  SO CAN`T RULE OUT SOME THREAT FOR A LITTLE FREEZING PRECIP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ST. MARY`S RIVER VICINITY...AND WILL HAVE A
"CHANCY" MENTION OF THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: EARLY WEEK RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON CURRENT RECEDING RIVER LEVELS.

LARGER SCALE OVERVIEW: SPLIT...KINDA ZONAL LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. INITIAL DEEP LAYER GULF MOISTURE FEED TIED TO
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW REGIME...AS EVIDENT BY BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTH CANADA SHORTWAVE HELPING DRIVE
A BAND OF LIGHTER RAINFALL INTO THE NORTHWEST LAKES AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PATTERN HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN...TIED TO
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSTREAM NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING
(NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION). INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SUITE AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY "BLOCKY"
PATTERN...AND DEFINITELY NOT ONE SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AND
SUSTAINED WARM-UPS IN OUR NEAR FUTURE. AS MENTIONED...HOWEVER...PAST
SEASONAL TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS STRONG BLOCKING...AND REALLY
HAVE TO WONDER IF PROGS ARE BEING OVERAMBITIOUS DRIVING ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. ACCESSING RAIN POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS THROUGH
EARLY WEEK AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF SUCH ON AREA RIVERS.

DETAILS: INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING RAINFALL FORECAST TO START THE
PERIOD. CURRENT SOUTHERN CANADA WAVE RACES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRAGGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA
AS IT DOES SO. FRONT BECOMES ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AS IT
INCREASINGLY ALIGNS ITSELF WITH MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. DECENT RER
JET DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HELPING FOCUS RAINS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL AXIS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. GUIDANCE TRENDS
FOR THE ABOVE HAVE BEEN NOTICEABLY SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH...
KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY (WHICH IS GOOD
THING AS GREATER IMPACTS/FLOODING FROM PAST EVENT WERE FURTHER
SOUTH). HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST SUCH WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF MID
LEVEL PARENT SYSTEM. STILL...HAVE TO WONDER OF COLDER LAKE WATERS
MAY DRIVE THIS FRONT A TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH. WILL HEDGE NORTH...BUT
LEAVE SOME WIGGLE ROOM VIA LESS THAN DESIRABLE BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. LOSS OF BEST UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
LIMITED MID LEVEL SUPPORT ARGUES FOR BETTER RAIN COVERAGE TO COME TO
AN END DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FRONT BECOME
RE-ENERGIZED HEADING INTO LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. EVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TEMP GRADIENT...FURTHER ENTICING
LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY WELL TRENDED
THIS DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH WILL BEGIN THE STEP-UP PROCESS OF
INCREASING POPS AND QPF. PASSAGE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH KEEPS
SOME SHOWER THREAT GOING MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DRY OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS FOR THE ALL IMPORTANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENT:
STEADY-STATE NATURE OF FRONTAL AXIS DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SOME DECENT
RAIN TOTALS...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS THIS OCCURS NORTH OF THE
HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS PAST WEEKS RAIN. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS UP
TO AND EXCEEDING A HALF INCH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN PROLONGED
NATURE AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO AOA ONE INCH LEVELS. STILL...LACK
OF BOTH MORE VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
THREAT (NO THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT
OF HAND...AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PERIOD WERE RAINFALL RATES
BECOME EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY (ALSO SUPPORTED BY NO SREF SUPPORT FOR
GREATER THAN HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN A THREE HOUR PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR EVEN GREATER THAN QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS IN THREE HOURS
BEING REALIZED). THUS...NO FLOOD WATCH WARRANTED...BUT DEFINITELY AN
EVENT TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH AND HEAVIER RAIN
SOLUTION...THE LATTER OF WHICH IS A RATHER LOW PROB SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD HIGHLY PREDICATED
BY RAIN COVERAGE/TIMING AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY NOT MIMIC REALITY...BUT EASILY ENVISION AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAKING A RUN INTO THE 60S (PERHAPS LOWER
70S?)...WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER TO THE NORTH. WILL
TREND FORECAST TOWARD A SHARPER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. IF THINGS WORK
OUT RIGHT (FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION)...GAYLORD JUST MIGHT SEE THEIR
FIRST 60 DEGREE DAY IN OVER HALF A YEAR! NOT SOLD ON THAT JUST
YET...HOWEVER. BACK TO 2014 SPRING REALITY ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN FALLING BACK THROUGH THE 40S AND 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PATTERN ATTEMPTS TO BECOME A TOUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED/SLOWER HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. SUPPORT IS RATHER HIGH THAT NEXT PACIFIC SLUG OF ENERGY WILL
HELP CARVE OUT RATHER ROBUST TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST
AFTER MID WEEK...WHICH LOOKS TO SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK PERIOD. EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
THIS SYSTEM IS ANYTHING BUT CERTAIN...AND WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN
THE COMING DAYS. ABOVE SIMPLY FORCES A MODEL BLEND FORECAST
APPROACH...AND ONE THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA THURSDAY RIGHT ON INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
TRY TO PINPOINT A DRY PERIOD. OF COURSE...GIVEN RECENT (AND COMING)
WET PATTERN...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RAIN POSSIBILITIES. AS OF
NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKENING/OCCLUDED SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
OVERHEAD...KEEPING RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS AT A MINIMUM. FINALLY
...SYSTEM BACKSIDE CAA LOOKS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO KEEP INHERITED
NOT ENTIRELY LIQUID PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH (REMEMBER...JUST THE MESSENGER HERE). SPEAKING OF
THOSE TEMPERATURES...WHILE DON`T SEE READINGS STRAYING EXCEPTIONALLY
FAR FROM NORMAL...OVERALL FLAVOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TENDENCY FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE READINGS. OF COURSE...EXACT NUMBERS WILL BE
ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON SYSTEM TIMING/RAINFALL COVERAGE/AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL PLACEMENT....WHICH...MY FRIENDS...ARE A LONG WAY FROM BEING
FIGURED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUMMARY: A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT...STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS
TO AREA TERMINALS.

RESTRICTIONS: ALL TERMINALS VFR THROUGH 09Z.  BEYOND THIS...A BAND
OF SHRAS WILL GRADUALLY SINK INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...WITH THE FOLLOWING EXPECTED IMPACTS:

PLN: MVFR SHRAS ARRIVE 9-11Z WITH PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS LIKELY FROM
13-15Z THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  EXPECTATION IS THAT CONTINUED
DETERIORATION TO IFR /VSBYS/ AFTER 18Z.

TVC: VFR THROUGH 13-15Z SUNDAY BEFORE MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP UNDER -RA
WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS AFTER 18Z.

MBL: VFR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH -RA CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL
AFTER 18Z.  LOWER CONFIDENCE HERE...BUT EXPECT MVFR VSBYS/VFR CIGS
TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

APN: SCATTERED SHRAS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS SITE TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COUPLED TONIGHT...5-10KTS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AROUND
10KTS BEFORE CONTINUING TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY 10KTS FOR THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

LLWS /CONFIDENCE: HIGH/: SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 0.5-1.5KFT LAYER
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING TO 30-40KTS WITH LLWS FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH
SHEAR LAYER WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE TIME
WE REACH SUNDAY MORNING.  SHEAR LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192329
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
729 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH EARLY SUNDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL STALL...LEADING TO A PERIOD
OF DAMP WEATHER THAT BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND LASTS UNTIL AT LEAST
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THEN COOL OFF YET AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...RAIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. SMALL CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN FAR EASTERN UPPER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
SUPPLIED BY A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF MICHIGAN...AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING CROSSING WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON.  WARM ADVECTION WEST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING
A THICKER BAND OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH RADAR RETURNS OUT OVER THE BIG LAKE THOUGH LOW
LAYERS WERE QUITE DRY.  NARROW LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO MINNESOTA...WITH
A CONCOMITANT BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS.

AS SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY...WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY "TIP OVER" TOWARD EASTERN
UPPER/FAR NORTHWEST LOWER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ADVECTING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 0.75-1.00 INCH).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TIMING OF RAIN THREAT INTO EASTERN UPPER
AND NORTHWEST LOWER TONIGHT...AND MAYBE A QUESTION OF PRECIP TYPE
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (FREEZING RAIN?).

TONIGHT: QUIET START TO THE EVENING AS CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER WILL LIKELY THIN OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING LATER.  EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION PUSH INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
PUSH EAST INTO FAR EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
AND M-55 CORRIDOR SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION BAND UPSTREAM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
INTENSITY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND SOME ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS GET INVOLVED.  SO
EXPECT 12H RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER OF 0.25-0.50+ INCH
TONIGHT.

OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...CURRENTLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40 THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S.  CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT SOUTH/
SOUTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
ONCE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES MAY BE VERY
CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THAT POINT ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
UPPER.  SO CAN`T RULE OUT SOME THREAT FOR A LITTLE FREEZING PRECIP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ST. MARY`S RIVER VICINITY...AND WILL HAVE A
"CHANCY" MENTION OF THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: EARLY WEEK RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON CURRENT RECEDING RIVER LEVELS.

LARGER SCALE OVERVIEW: SPLIT...KINDA ZONAL LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. INITIAL DEEP LAYER GULF MOISTURE FEED TIED TO
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW REGIME...AS EVIDENT BY BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTH CANADA SHORTWAVE HELPING DRIVE
A BAND OF LIGHTER RAINFALL INTO THE NORTHWEST LAKES AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PATTERN HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN...TIED TO
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSTREAM NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING
(NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION). INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SUITE AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY "BLOCKY"
PATTERN...AND DEFINITELY NOT ONE SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AND
SUSTAINED WARM-UPS IN OUR NEAR FUTURE. AS MENTIONED...HOWEVER...PAST
SEASONAL TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS STRONG BLOCKING...AND REALLY
HAVE TO WONDER IF PROGS ARE BEING OVERAMBITIOUS DRIVING ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. ACCESSING RAIN POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS THROUGH
EARLY WEEK AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF SUCH ON AREA RIVERS.

DETAILS: INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING RAINFALL FORECAST TO START THE
PERIOD. CURRENT SOUTHERN CANADA WAVE RACES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRAGGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA
AS IT DOES SO. FRONT BECOMES ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AS IT
INCREASINGLY ALIGNS ITSELF WITH MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. DECENT RER
JET DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HELPING FOCUS RAINS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL AXIS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. GUIDANCE TRENDS
FOR THE ABOVE HAVE BEEN NOTICEABLY SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH...
KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY (WHICH IS GOOD
THING AS GREATER IMPACTS/FLOODING FROM PAST EVENT WERE FURTHER
SOUTH). HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST SUCH WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF MID
LEVEL PARENT SYSTEM. STILL...HAVE TO WONDER OF COLDER LAKE WATERS
MAY DRIVE THIS FRONT A TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH. WILL HEDGE NORTH...BUT
LEAVE SOME WIGGLE ROOM VIA LESS THAN DESIRABLE BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. LOSS OF BEST UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
LIMITED MID LEVEL SUPPORT ARGUES FOR BETTER RAIN COVERAGE TO COME TO
AN END DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FRONT BECOME
RE-ENERGIZED HEADING INTO LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. EVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TEMP GRADIENT...FURTHER ENTICING
LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY WELL TRENDED
THIS DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH WILL BEGIN THE STEP-UP PROCESS OF
INCREASING POPS AND QPF. PASSAGE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH KEEPS
SOME SHOWER THREAT GOING MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DRY OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS FOR THE ALL IMPORTANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENT:
STEADY-STATE NATURE OF FRONTAL AXIS DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SOME DECENT
RAIN TOTALS...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS THIS OCCURS NORTH OF THE
HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS PAST WEEKS RAIN. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS UP
TO AND EXCEEDING A HALF INCH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN PROLONGED
NATURE AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO AOA ONE INCH LEVELS. STILL...LACK
OF BOTH MORE VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
THREAT (NO THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT
OF HAND...AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PERIOD WERE RAINFALL RATES
BECOME EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY (ALSO SUPPORTED BY NO SREF SUPPORT FOR
GREATER THAN HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN A THREE HOUR PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR EVEN GREATER THAN QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS IN THREE HOURS
BEING REALIZED). THUS...NO FLOOD WATCH WARRANTED...BUT DEFINITELY AN
EVENT TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH AND HEAVIER RAIN
SOLUTION...THE LATTER OF WHICH IS A RATHER LOW PROB SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD HIGHLY PREDICATED
BY RAIN COVERAGE/TIMING AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY NOT MIMIC REALITY...BUT EASILY ENVISION AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAKING A RUN INTO THE 60S (PERHAPS LOWER
70S?)...WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER TO THE NORTH. WILL
TREND FORECAST TOWARD A SHARPER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. IF THINGS WORK
OUT RIGHT (FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION)...GAYLORD JUST MIGHT SEE THEIR
FIRST 60 DEGREE DAY IN OVER HALF A YEAR! NOT SOLD ON THAT JUST
YET...HOWEVER. BACK TO 2014 SPRING REALITY ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN FALLING BACK THROUGH THE 40S AND 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PATTERN ATTEMPTS TO BECOME A TOUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED/SLOWER HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. SUPPORT IS RATHER HIGH THAT NEXT PACIFIC SLUG OF ENERGY WILL
HELP CARVE OUT RATHER ROBUST TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST
AFTER MID WEEK...WHICH LOOKS TO SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK PERIOD. EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
THIS SYSTEM IS ANYTHING BUT CERTAIN...AND WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN
THE COMING DAYS. ABOVE SIMPLY FORCES A MODEL BLEND FORECAST
APPROACH...AND ONE THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA THURSDAY RIGHT ON INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
TRY TO PINPOINT A DRY PERIOD. OF COURSE...GIVEN RECENT (AND COMING)
WET PATTERN...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RAIN POSSIBILITIES. AS OF
NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKENING/OCCLUDED SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
OVERHEAD...KEEPING RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS AT A MINIMUM. FINALLY
...SYSTEM BACKSIDE CAA LOOKS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO KEEP INHERITED
NOT ENTIRELY LIQUID PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH (REMEMBER...JUST THE MESSENGER HERE). SPEAKING OF
THOSE TEMPERATURES...WHILE DON`T SEE READINGS STRAYING EXCEPTIONALLY
FAR FROM NORMAL...OVERALL FLAVOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TENDENCY FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE READINGS. OF COURSE...EXACT NUMBERS WILL BE
ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON SYSTEM TIMING/RAINFALL COVERAGE/AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL PLACEMENT....WHICH...MY FRIENDS...ARE A LONG WAY FROM BEING
FIGURED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUMMARY: A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT...STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS
TO AREA TERMINALS.

RESTRICTIONS: ALL TERMINALS VFR THROUGH 09Z.  BEYOND THIS...A BAND
OF SHRAS WILL GRADUALLY SINK INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...WITH THE FOLLOWING EXPECTED IMPACTS:

PLN: MVFR SHRAS ARRIVE 9-11Z WITH PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS LIKELY FROM
13-15Z THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  EXPECTATION IS THAT CONTINUED
DETERIORATION TO IFR /VSBYS/ AFTER 18Z.

TVC: VFR THROUGH 13-15Z SUNDAY BEFORE MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP UNDER -RA
WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS AFTER 18Z.

MBL: VFR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH -RA CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL
AFTER 18Z.  LOWER CONFIDENCE HERE...BUT EXPECT MVFR VSBYS/VFR CIGS
TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

APN: SCATTERED SHRAS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS SITE TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COUPLED TONIGHT...5-10KTS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AROUND
10KTS BEFORE CONTINUING TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY 10KTS FOR THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

LLWS /CONFIDENCE: HIGH/: SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 0.5-1.5KFT LAYER
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING TO 30-40KTS WITH LLWS FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH
SHEAR LAYER WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE TIME
WE REACH SUNDAY MORNING.  SHEAR LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KDTX 192247
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
647 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DRY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES BELOW 15K FT
TONIGHT.  LITTLE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEST
WINDS VEERED SLIGHTLY TOWARD A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE WARMED INTO THE 50S UNDER
FULL DAYTIME SUNSHINE. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS HOWEVER LED TO MUCH
COOLER READINGS ALONG THE LAKES ERIE/HURON SHORELINES. LINGERING SFC
RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
AND VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF INTO
THE 40S FOLLOWING SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE COOLING WILL BE EARLIER
AND MORE ABRUPT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AMBIENT EASTERLY FLOW ADVANCES THE MARINE LAYER WELL INLAND.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT BACKS TO THE
S-SE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN. THE UPPER WAVE NOW ROTATING ACROSS MANITOBA AND
SW ONTARIO WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER LOWER MI TONIGHT WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LITTLE CIRRUS TO SPILL INTO SE MI. THESE
FACTORS SUPPORT LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MINS /MAINLY LOW TO MID 30S/.

LONG TERM...

A VERY INTERESTING AND RARE HEIGHT CONFIGURATION IS IN PLACE WITH
SHORT WAVELENGTH HIGH INDEX FLOW. THE FIRST THING THAT WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING DUE TO
SOME LARGER OSCILLATION...LIKELY AT THE HEMISPHERIC SCALE.

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS LARGE SCALE RIDGE
BUILDING FOR SUNDAY BY DEFLECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. SURFACE RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A STRONG FOOTHOLD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THANKS TO
DRY AND STABLE AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TO HANG UP NORTH OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A LOW CHANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT DRY...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING HYDROMETEORS WOULD FALL OUT OF A CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 10-15 KFT. SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VIRGA.
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EXTREMELY PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND AMPLIFICATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT INBOUND
SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE REGIONALLY ON MONDAY. TREND OF
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GOING WITH A SLOWER TIMING
OF THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING. WENT DECIDEDLY DRIER WITH THE GRIDS FOR
MONDAY. WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I 69...BUT IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON WHETHER TO PULL THEM
COMPLETELY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE DAY TO BE NICE. IN
FACT...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WENT CONSIDERABLY WARMER TOO. HIGHS
MONDAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY WELL MIXED FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE
LOWER 70S. LAPSE RATES MONDAY EVENING STILL SUPPORT A THUNDER
MENTION...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO WEAK/MODEST TO
SUPPORT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM RISK.

LOW PRESSURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST WHICH LEAVES LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THUMB AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AND FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DOMINATING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP TO THE WEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL START TO BRING IN THE CLOUDS WITH WEAK
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY LOOKS TO THE BE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF GETTING WET WITH POPS A LITTLE ABOVE 50 PERCENT
TO START THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AN ELONGATED CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.

MARINE...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN REASONABLY QUIET INTO TONIGHT AS LIGHT EAST
FLOW...AVERAGING 10 KNOTS OR SO...CONTINUES TO FILTER OFF OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL THEN PASS NEAR THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...DROPPING
A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THIS AREA UNTIL THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DRAWS IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTH WINDS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB/DE
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 192244
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
644 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL FEATURE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND
OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AREAWIDE WILL COME ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS
LINE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S.

GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA OVER THE NW CWFA AROUND 00Z
TUESDAY AND IN THE SE CWFA AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. WILL CARRY A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS AND THE RAIN
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS.

STILL NOT ENOUGH CONVINCING EVIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO ADD THUNDER TO
THE FCST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. SFC DEWPTS STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG IS INDICATED. STILL SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN LATER FCSTS.

SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
MONDAY AS WELL BEFORE FROPA DUE TO AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES AROUND 25
PCT AND PRE GREEN UP CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THE FORECAST IS
MOST SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH WILL PICK UP WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOOKING TOO STABLE TO
INTRODUCE THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT... GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
DECENT LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY... SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. THERE SHOULD BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY... AS THE LOW MEANDERS BY
JUST TO THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM AND RISE TO
NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VALUES WILL FALL BACK
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 DEGREES AND NORMAL
LOWS ARE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES. THE BAND OF FRONTAL RELATED RAIN AND THE ASSOCIATED
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR TAF
SITES SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY WE
COULD SEE THE SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

OTHER THAN THAT... THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR WIND SHEAR ISSUES OVER
NIGHT AS WINDS NEAR 1000 FT AGL SHOULD BE SOUTH AROUND 25 KNOTS
BUT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS. ON
SUNDAY THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOT AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING







000
FXUS63 KMQT 192007
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
407 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

A STRONG SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER MANITOBA IS PRODUCING A SURFACE
LOW OF 1004MB OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. AHEAD
OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST THROUGH
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LINE OF SHOWERS
STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WITH 12Z KMPX RAOB HAVING A PWAT OF
0.77IN. FATHER TO THE EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN
FEEDING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BELOW 800MB (SEEN ON 12Z KGRB/KAPX
SOUNDINGS) AND HAS LED TO A GENERALLY DRY DAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. A POCKET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
EARLIER TODAY DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES...BUT IT HAS SINCE SHIFTED
NORTHEAST. WITH THE FILTERED SUNSHINE...MIXING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE WEST ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER...WITH GENERALLY 40S ELSEWHERE. THE COLD SPOT IS
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH THE COOL FLOW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS WENT THROUGH.

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND PULL THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH IT. THE ASSOCIATED LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND KEEP THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN
CANADA. WHILE THAT IS OCCURRING...THE PUSH OF STRONG WAA AT
850-700MB THAT PRODUCED THE SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING (BRUSHING FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN) IS
SLIDING NORTHEAST AND BECOMES FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF/POPS
FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HELP OF THE RIGHT REAR OF THE
WEST-EAST ORIENTATED UPPER JET.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. AS THAT TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL MN TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND
ONSHORE IN THE WESTERN U.P. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS IDEA AND HAVE HIGH END LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS AS IT COMES ONSHORE. IN THE EVENING...MID LEVEL TROUGH
LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE LOWER LEVELS...LEADING
TO VEERING FLOW AT/ABOVE 700MB STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THAT OCCURS...THE LOWER LEVEL
(925-700MB) MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL REMAINS PEGGED OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NOSE OF THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
CO-LOCATED WITH THE PEAK OF THE 925-700MB WAA LARGELY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BECAUSE OF THAT SEPARATION...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE MORE SCATTERED/BROKEN EXPECTATIONS OVER
THE WEST THIS EVENING...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS FOR
A SLIGHT TREND DOWN TO THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS. BUT ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE EAST THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING BECOMES MORE
IN LINE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WOULD EXPECT SOME INCREASE
IN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL (NEAR
SURFACE) FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AT THAT
TIME...TAKING AWAY THE INFLUX OF DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR THAT MUCH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ALONG THAT MID LEVEL TROUGH...THERE IS A THIN
RIBBON OF PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 0.75-1.0...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...OPTED TO
FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE NON GFS QPF AMOUNTS...SINCE THAT
MODEL IS ABOUT DOUBLE THE REST OF THE MODELS. THAT PRODUCES AMOUNTS
OF 0.1-0.2IN OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND 0.3-0.5IN OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. THAT IDEA MATCHES UP WELL WITH 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 09Z/15Z
SREF PROBS FOR 12HR QPF.

WARM MOIST AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE AREA. BEHIND THE RAIN...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ON THE
EXTENT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE MORE LOW STRATUS THAN FOG.
THE WINDS WEAKEN THE MOST OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME FOG THERE...BUT THINK IT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EVEN THOUGH MELTING SNOW MAY MOISTEN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

SUNDAY...PRECIP LOCATION WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION AND TROUGH STALLS OUT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND
KEEP THEM NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVER THE NORTHWEST
1/3RD OF THE CWA THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWA DOES HAVE SOME QUESTIONS MARKS ON HOW MUCH 925-850MB
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME
CLEARING IN THE MORNING (UNLESS FOG/STRATUS SETS UP)...BUT THAT WILL
AID SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL U.P.
MEANWHILE...THE AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THE WARM AIR THAT HAS
SURGED NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SHOULD
SEE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL...WITH CLOUDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES
COMING INTO AGREEMENT. DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
PHASING OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
AND ONE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE NORTHERN WAVE SLIDING FROM ALBERTA AT 00Z
MONDAY INTO EASTERN MANITOBA/NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. BY
00Z TUESDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH JUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE NAM FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH...BUT MOVES SLIGHTLY
QUICKER THAN THE REST. DIFFERENCES IN THE TILT OF THE TROUGH EXIST
BY THIS TIME...WITH THE ECMWF POSITIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
WEST...AND THE GFS/GEM/NAM NEUTRALLY/NEGATIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
EAST. THE GEM HAS A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.

THE SOUTHERN WAVE ALOFT IS FAIRLY BROAD AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS AT 00Z MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THE  GFS/ECMWF SPORT A POSITIVE TILT EXTENDING FROM
IOWA INTO OKLAHOMA. THE GEM/NAM HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH...DEVELOPING
ONLY THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT IN OKLAHOMA. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE MODELS
COME INTO SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...EXTENDING IT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

THESE TWO WAVES MERGE INTO A DISJOINTED TROUGH BY 18Z
TUESDAY...MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOGETHER AS A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

UNFORTUNATELY...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCLUDING WHETHER OR NOT SUNDAYS
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE S/SE CWA WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOWER
MI MONDAY OR BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING NORTHERN WAVE...ALLOWING THE A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW
TO CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS/NAM KEEP THE
DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER SOUTH OVER LOWER MI AND PUSH IT INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN WAVE DROPPING INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL CWA BEHIND THE MAIN
PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. OVERALL...DECIDED
TO BLEND WITH THE ECMWF/GFS...BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO THE EASTERN
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL FOR THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON MON EVE-TUESDAY AM.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE WARM...WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER UPPER MI
RANGING FROM 6C TO 8C. THIS PUTS HIGHS INLAND AND WEST INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MID 60S. AREAS EASTWARD WILL SEE MORE CLOUD
COVER...SO PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW TO MID
50S...AND IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SOME DAYS. WITH THE
RAIN AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER
RIVER FLOWS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY TUESDAY EVENING
AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...KEEPING WEATHER COOL AND QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN. AGREEMENT IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE MORE POTENT
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GEM/GFS...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA BY
18Z THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO DEEPER THAN THE GFS/GEM. THE GEM/GFS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS POPS AGAIN...GIVEN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH THE GFS/ECWMF
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...LEADING
TO ANOTHER COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

COMPLICATED 18Z TAF FORECAST DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS COMING TOGETHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE PRECIP FALLING OUT OF MID-CLOUDS...WOULD
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY AS VFR DUE TO LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE. AS THESE SHOWERS SHIFT EAST AND POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...THEY SHOULD AFFECT KSAW LATER THIS
EVENING BUT THERE TOO CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT LLWS TO AFFECT KCMX/KSAW THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. KIWD MAY SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS TOO...BUT IT WOULD ONLY BE A COUPLE HOURS IN
LENGTH.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST COMES FROM THE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE
SEEM TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LIKELY DUE
TO SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WON/T BE OVERLY SUPPORTIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT (ACTUALLY MORE LOW
STRATUS) UNTIL THEY WEAKEN LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL LOCATION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING IN. ONE REASON FOR MORE OF A LOW STRATUS IDEA IS
WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WOULD BE
DOWNSLOPING FOR KIWD AND OFF LAND AT KCMX (REDUCING COOLING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR). SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON SUNDAY AND BRING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY (GENERALLY BELOW
15KTS). A WEAK LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING AN INCREASE TO THE WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20KTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS
6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM
LOCAL LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HIGH AS THE
LOW 40S...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING
CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO
THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SNOWMELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 192005
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

A STRONG SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER MANITOBA IS PRODUCING A SURFACE
LOW OF 1004MB OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. AHEAD
OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST THROUGH
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LINE OF SHOWERS
STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WITH 12Z KMPX RAOB HAVING A PWAT OF
0.77IN. FATHER TO THE EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN
FEEDING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BELOW 800MB (SEEN ON 12Z KGRB/KAPX
SOUNDINGS) AND HAS LED TO A GENERALLY DRY DAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. A POCKET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
EARLIER TODAY DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES...BUT IT HAS SINCE SHIFTED
NORTHEAST. WITH THE FILTERED SUNSHINE...MIXING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE WEST ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER...WITH GENERALLY 40S ELSEWHERE. THE COLD SPOT IS
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH THE COOL FLOW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS WENT THROUGH.

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND PULL THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH IT. THE ASSOCIATED LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND KEEP THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN
CANADA. WHILE THAT IS OCCURRING...THE PUSH OF STRONG WAA AT
850-700MB THAT PRODUCED THE SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING (BRUSHING FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN) IS
SLIDING NORTHEAST AND BECOMES FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF/POPS
FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HELP OF THE RIGHT REAR OF THE
WEST-EAST ORIENTATED UPPER JET.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. AS THAT TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL MN TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND
ONSHORE IN THE WESTERN U.P. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS IDEA AND HAVE HIGH END LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS AS IT COMES ONSHORE. IN THE EVENING...MID LEVEL TROUGH
LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE LOWER LEVELS...LEADING
TO VEERING FLOW AT/ABOVE 700MB STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THAT OCCURS...THE LOWER LEVEL
(925-700MB) MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL REMAINS PEGGED OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NOSE OF THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
CO-LOCATED WITH THE PEAK OF THE 925-700MB WAA LARGELY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BECAUSE OF THAT SEPARATION...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE MORE SCATTERED/BROKEN EXPECTATIONS OVER
THE WEST THIS EVENING...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS FOR
A SLIGHT TREND DOWN TO THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS. BUT ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE EAST THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING BECOMES MORE
IN LINE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WOULD EXPECT SOME INCREASE
IN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL (NEAR
SURFACE) FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AT THAT
TIME...TAKING AWAY THE INFLUX OF DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR THAT MUCH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ALONG THAT MID LEVEL TROUGH...THERE IS A THIN
RIBBON OF PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 0.75-1.0...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...OPTED TO
FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE NON GFS QPF AMOUNTS...SINCE THAT
MODEL IS ABOUT DOUBLE THE REST OF THE MODELS. THAT PRODUCES AMOUNTS
OF 0.1-0.2IN OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND 0.3-0.5IN OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. THAT IDEA MATCHES UP WELL WITH 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 09Z/15Z
SREF PROBS FOR 12HR QPF.

WARM MOIST AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE AREA. BEHIND THE RAIN...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ON THE
EXTENT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE MORE LOW STRATUS THAN FOG.
THE WINDS WEAKEN THE MOST OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME FOG THERE...BUT THINK IT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EVEN THOUGH MELTING SNOW MAY MOISTEN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

SUNDAY...PRECIP LOCATION WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION AND TROUGH STALLS OUT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND
KEEP THEM NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVER THE NORTHWEST
1/3RD OF THE CWA THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWA DOES HAVE SOME QUESTIONS MARKS ON HOW MUCH 925-850MB
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME
CLEARING IN THE MORNING (UNLESS FOG/STRATUS SETS UP)...BUT THAT WILL
AID SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL U.P.
MEANWHILE...THE AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THE WARM AIR THAT HAS
SURGED NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SHOULD
SEE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL...WITH CLOUDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM IS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL
INTERACTION BTWN A STALLED FNT/RIBBON OF HIER MSTR JUST S OF UPR MI
AND A SHRTWV THAT IS FCST TO MOVE E ACRS SRN CANADA ON MON AND IF/
HOW MUCH RA WL FALL OVER UPR MI AND IMPACT AREA STREAMS/HYDRO.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS LOWERED BY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BTWN THESE FEATURES.

SUN...AS SHRTWV/SFC LO OVER NW ONTARIO ON SUN MRNG MOVE E CLOSER TO
JAMES BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY...A SHRTWV RDG AND MID LVL DRYING ARE
FCST TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND DEPARTING/WEAKENING
ATTENDANT COOL FNT AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON. ALTHOUGH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THIS MID LVL DRYING WL
BE...THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER CNDN MODEL SHOWS ENUF DRYING TO END THE
PCPN OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA BY 00Z. OPTED TO RETAIN FLAVOR OF
GOING FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING POPS OVER THE SE HALF DIMINISHING
THRU THE DAY...AND ENDING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE BY 00Z MON.
OTRW...WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE MELTING SN
PACK TO DSPT BY THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE WL SUPPORT ABV
NORMAL TEMPS...BUT LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HI PRES UNDER THE
SHRTWV RDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZES THAT WL BRING LOCAL
COOLING NEAR THE SHORES.

SUN NGT/MON...SUN NGT WL START DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL CLOSER TO LINGERING STNRY FNT/MSTR AXIS. BUT AS NEXT SHRTWV
MOVING ESEWD ACRS SCENTRAL CAN IN THE NW FLOW E OF BLDG RDG OVER WRN
CANADA APRCHS AND GENERATES SOME HGT FALLS OVER THE UPR LKS...SOME
OF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECWMF/UKMET...SHOW DEEP MSTR TO
THE S EXPANDING BACK TO THE N LATE SUN NGT AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL AND E. THE NCEP MODELS ARE MUCH DRIER AND INDICATE MAINLY
SCT RA SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INCOMING SHRTWV.
THE 00Z CNDN MODEL SHOWS THE PCPN EXPANDING BACK FARTHER TO THE N
BUT NOT UNTIL MON. WHILE THE BLDG RDG OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTS THE
FARTHER N SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP MODELS...THE RATHER LARGE
SEPARATION BTWN THE DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION AND ABSENCE OF A SGNFT
BACKING OF THE UPR LVL WINDS TO A MORE SW DIRECTION INDICATE THE
DRIER NCEP GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING INTERACTION/PHASING BTWN DISPARATE
DISTURBANCES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LO IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.
FORTUNATELY...EVEN THE WETTER SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP
MODELS POINTS TO HEAVIER RA OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA...WHERE
LESS SN REMAINS. OTRW...MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MRNG WITH LGT WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR DRIER MID LVLS OVER
MELTING SN.

MON NGT...INCRSG NNW FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 25-30 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHRTWV THRU THE GREAT LKS IS FCST TO DROP
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -6 TO -7C BY 12Z TUE. WHILE THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT COLD ENUF FOR LK EFFECT SN...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW ENUF
LLVL MSTR TO JUSTIFY CHC POPS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR...
EXPECT THE RA SHOWERS TO MIX WITH OR CHG TO SN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIER TERRAIN OF THE W.

TUE INTO WED...CNDN SFC HI PRES RDG UNDER UPR RDG TRAILING DEPARTING
SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER WX TO THE CWA.

EXTENDED...NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SGNFT DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON THE HANDLING OF NEXT LO PRES THAT IS
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS LATER ON WED INTO FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES A COLDER SCENARIO WITH THE SFC LO PRES TRACKING TO THE S
OF UPR MI AND BLDG HI PRES JUST N OF LK WINNIPEG. THIS FCST WOULD
RESULT IN SOME MIXED PCPN AT THE ONSET AND LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
00Z GFS AND CNDN MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW A DEEPER LO FARTHER
TO THE N ALONG WITH A STRONGER SLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR. WL RELY ON
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

COMPLICATED 18Z TAF FORECAST DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS COMING TOGETHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE PRECIP FALLING OUT OF MID-CLOUDS...WOULD
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY AS VFR DUE TO LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE. AS THESE SHOWERS SHIFT EAST AND POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...THEY SHOULD AFFECT KSAW LATER THIS
EVENING BUT THERE TOO CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT LLWS TO AFFECT KCMX/KSAW THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. KIWD MAY SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS TOO...BUT IT WOULD ONLY BE A COUPLE HOURS IN
LENGTH.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST COMES FROM THE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE
SEEM TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LIKELY DUE
TO SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WON/T BE OVERLY SUPPORTIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT (ACTUALLY MORE LOW
STRATUS) UNTIL THEY WEAKEN LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL LOCATION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING IN. ONE REASON FOR MORE OF A LOW STRATUS IDEA IS
WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WOULD BE
DOWNSLOPING FOR KIWD AND OFF LAND AT KCMX (REDUCING COOLING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR). SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON SUNDAY AND BRING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY (GENERALLY BELOW
15KTS). A WEAK LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING AN INCREASE TO THE WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20KTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS
6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM
LOCAL LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HIGH AS THE
LOW 40S...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING
CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO
THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SNOWMELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF






000
FXUS63 KAPX 191949
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
349 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH EARLY SUNDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL STALL...LEADING TO A PERIOD
OF DAMP WEATHER THAT BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND LASTS UNTIL AT LEAST
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THEN COOL OFF YET AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...RAIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. SMALL CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN FAR EASTERN UPPER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
SUPPLIED BY A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF MICHIGAN...AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING CROSSING WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON.  WARM ADVECTION WEST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING
A THICKER BAND OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH RADAR RETURNS OUT OVER THE BIG LAKE THOUGH LOW
LAYERS WERE QUITE DRY.  NARROW LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO MINNESOTA...WITH
A CONCOMITANT BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS.

AS SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY...WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY "TIP OVER" TOWARD EASTERN
UPPER/FAR NORTHWEST LOWER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ADVECTING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 0.75-1.00 INCH).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TIMING OF RAIN THREAT INTO EASTERN UPPER
AND NORTHWEST LOWER TONIGHT...AND MAYBE A QUESTION OF PRECIP TYPE
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (FREEZING RAIN?).

TONIGHT: QUIET START TO THE EVENING AS CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER WILL LIKELY THIN OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING LATER.  EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION PUSH INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
PUSH EAST INTO FAR EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
AND M-55 CORRIDOR SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION BAND UPSTREAM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
INTENSITY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND SOME ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS GET INVOLVED.  SO
EXPECT 12H RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER OF 0.25-0.50+ INCH
TONIGHT.

OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...CURRENTLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40 THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S.  CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT SOUTH/
SOUTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
ONCE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES MAY BE VERY
CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THAT POINT ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
UPPER.  SO CAN`T RULE OUT SOME THREAT FOR A LITTLE FREEZING PRECIP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ST. MARY`S RIVER VICINITY...AND WILL HAVE A
"CHANCY" MENTION OF THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: EARLY WEEK RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON CURRENT RECEDING RIVER LEVELS.

LARGER SCALE OVERVIEW: SPLIT...KINDA ZONAL LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. INITIAL DEEP LAYER GULF MOISTURE FEED TIED TO
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW REGIME...AS EVIDENT BY BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTH CANADA SHORTWAVE HELPING DRIVE
A BAND OF LIGHTER RAINFALL INTO THE NORTHWEST LAKES AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PATTERN HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN...TIED TO
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSTREAM NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING
(NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION). INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SUITE AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY "BLOCKY"
PATTERN...AND DEFINITELY NOT ONE SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AND
SUSTAINED WARM-UPS IN OUR NEAR FUTURE. AS MENTIONED...HOWEVER...PAST
SEASONAL TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS STRONG BLOCKING...AND REALLY
HAVE TO WONDER IF PROGS ARE BEING OVERAMBITIOUS DRIVING ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. ACCESSING RAIN POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS THROUGH
EARLY WEEK AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF SUCH ON AREA RIVERS.

DETAILS: INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING RAINFALL FORECAST TO START THE
PERIOD. CURRENT SOUTHERN CANADA WAVE RACES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRAGGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA
AS IT DOES SO. FRONT BECOMES ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AS IT
INCREASINGLY ALIGNS ITSELF WITH MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. DECENT RER
JET DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HELPING FOCUS RAINS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL AXIS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. GUIDANCE TRENDS
FOR THE ABOVE HAVE BEEN NOTICEABLY SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH...
KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY (WHICH IS GOOD
THING AS GREATER IMPACTS/FLOODING FROM PAST EVENT WERE FURTHER
SOUTH). HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST SUCH WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF MID
LEVEL PARENT SYSTEM. STILL...HAVE TO WONDER OF COLDER LAKE WATERS
MAY DRIVE THIS FRONT A TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH. WILL HEDGE NORTH...BUT
LEAVE SOME WIGGLE ROOM VIA LESS THAN DESIRABLE BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. LOSS OF BEST UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
LIMITED MID LEVEL SUPPORT ARGUES FOR BETTER RAIN COVERAGE TO COME TO
AN END DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FRONT BECOME
RE-ENERGIZED HEADING INTO LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. EVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TEMP GRADIENT...FURTHER ENTICING
LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY WELL TRENDED
THIS DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH WILL BEGIN THE STEP-UP PROCESS OF
INCREASING POPS AND QPF. PASSAGE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH KEEPS
SOME SHOWER THREAT GOING MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DRY OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS FOR THE ALL IMPORTANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENT:
STEADY-STATE NATURE OF FRONTAL AXIS DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SOME DECENT
RAIN TOTALS...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS THIS OCCURS NORTH OF THE
HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS PAST WEEKS RAIN. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS UP
TO AND EXCEEDING A HALF INCH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN PROLONGED
NATURE AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO AOA ONE INCH LEVELS. STILL...LACK
OF BOTH MORE VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
THREAT (NO THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT
OF HAND...AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PERIOD WERE RAINFALL RATES
BECOME EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY (ALSO SUPPORTED BY NO SREF SUPPORT FOR
GREATER THAN HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN A THREE HOUR PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR EVEN GREATER THAN QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS IN THREE HOURS
BEING REALIZED). THUS...NO FLOOD WATCH WARRANTED...BUT DEFINITELY AN
EVENT TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH AND HEAVIER RAIN
SOLUTION...THE LATTER OF WHICH IS A RATHER LOW PROB SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD HIGHLY PREDICATED
BY RAIN COVERAGE/TIMING AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY NOT MIMIC REALITY...BUT EASILY ENVISION AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAKING A RUN INTO THE 60S (PERHAPS LOWER
70S?)...WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER TO THE NORTH. WILL
TREND FORECAST TOWARD A SHARPER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. IF THINGS WORK
OUT RIGHT (FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION)...GAYLORD JUST MIGHT SEE THEIR
FIRST 60 DEGREE DAY IN OVER HALF A YEAR! NOT SOLD ON THAT JUST
YET...HOWEVER. BACK TO 2014 SPRING REALITY ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN FALLING BACK THROUGH THE 40S AND 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PATTERN ATTEMPTS TO BECOME A TOUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED/SLOWER HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. SUPPORT IS RATHER HIGH THAT NEXT PACIFIC SLUG OF ENERGY WILL
HELP CARVE OUT RATHER ROBUST TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST
AFTER MID WEEK...WHICH LOOKS TO SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK PERIOD. EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
THIS SYSTEM IS ANYTHING BUT CERTAIN...AND WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN
THE COMING DAYS. ABOVE SIMPLY FORCES A MODEL BLEND FORECAST
APPROACH...AND ONE THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA THURSDAY RIGHT ON INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
TRY TO PINPOINT A DRY PERIOD. OF COURSE...GIVEN RECENT (AND COMING)
WET PATTERN...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RAIN POSSIBILITIES. AS OF
NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKENING/OCCLUDED SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
OVERHEAD...KEEPING RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS AT A MINIMUM. FINALLY
...SYSTEM BACKSIDE CAA LOOKS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO KEEP INHERITED
NOT ENTIRELY LIQUID PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH (REMEMBER...JUST THE MESSENGER HERE). SPEAKING OF
THOSE TEMPERATURES...WHILE DON`T SEE READINGS STRAYING EXCEPTIONALLY
FAR FROM NORMAL...OVERALL FLAVOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TENDENCY FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE READINGS. OF COURSE...EXACT NUMBERS WILL BE
ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON SYSTEM TIMING/RAINFALL COVERAGE/AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL PLACEMENT....WHICH...MY FRIENDS...ARE A LONG WAY FROM BEING
FIGURED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN MOVING IN SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB







000
FXUS63 KDTX 191941
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
341 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE WARMED INTO THE 50S UNDER
FULL DAYTIME SUNSHINE. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS HOWEVER LED TO MUCH
COOLER READINGS ALONG THE LAKES ERIE/HURON SHORELINES. LINGERING SFC
RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
AND VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF INTO
THE 40S FOLLOWING SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE COOLING WILL BE EARLIER
AND MORE ABRUPT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AMBIENT EASTERLY FLOW ADVANCES THE MARINE LAYER WELL INLAND.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT BACKS TO THE
S-SE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN. THE UPPER WAVE NOW ROTATING ACROSS MANITOBA AND
SW ONTARIO WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER LOWER MI TONIGHT WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LITTLE CIRRUS TO SPILL INTO SE MI. THESE
FACTORS SUPPORT LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MINS /MAINLY LOW TO MID 30S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...

A VERY INTERESTING AND RARE HEIGHT CONFIGURATION IS IN PLACE WITH
SHORT WAVELENGTH HIGH INDEX FLOW. THE FIRST THING THAT WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING DUE TO
SOME LARGER OSCILLATION...LIKELY AT THE HEMISPHERIC SCALE.

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS LARGE SCALE RIDGE
BUILDING FOR SUNDAY BY DEFLECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. SURFACE RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A STRONG FOOTHOLD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THANKS TO
DRY AND STABLE AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TO HANG UP NORTH OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A LOW CHANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT DRY...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING HYDROMETEORS WOULD FALL OUT OF A CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 10-15 KFT. SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VIRGA.
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EXTREMELY PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND AMPLIFICATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT INBOUND
SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE REGIONALLY ON MONDAY. TREND OF
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GOING WITH A SLOWER TIMING
OF THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING. WENT DECIDEDLY DRIER WITH THE GRIDS FOR
MONDAY. WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I 69...BUT IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON WHETHER TO PULL THEM
COMPLETELY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE DAY TO BE NICE. IN
FACT...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WENT CONSIDERABLY WARMER TOO. HIGHS
MONDAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY WELL MIXED FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE
LOWER 70S. LAPSE RATES MONDAY EVENING STILL SUPPORT A THUNDER
MENTION...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO WEAK/MODEST TO
SUPPORT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM RISK.

LOW PRESSURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST WHICH LEAVES LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THUMB AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AND FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DOMINATING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP TO THE WEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL START TO BRING IN THE CLOUDS WITH WEAK
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY LOOKS TO THE BE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF GETTING WET WITH POPS A LITTLE ABOVE 50 PERCENT
TO START THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AN ELONGATED CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN REASONABLY QUIET INTO TONIGHT AS LIGHT EAST
FLOW...AVERAGING 10 KNOTS OR SO...CONTINUES TO FILTER OFF OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL THEN PASS NEAR THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...DROPPING
A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THIS AREA UNTIL THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DRAWS IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTH WINDS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 100 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

//DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES BELOW 15K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LINGERING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

FOR DTW...A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THIS LAKE BREEZE ACROSS METRO
WILL TURN THE WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR AROUND 20Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB/DE
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 191930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL FEATURE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND
OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AREAWIDE WILL COME ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS
LINE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S.

GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA OVER THE NW CWFA AROUND 00Z
TUESDAY AND IN THE SE CWFA AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. WILL CARRY A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS AND THE RAIN
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS.

STILL NOT ENOUGH CONVINCING EVIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO ADD THUNDER TO
THE FCST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. SFC DEWPTS STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG IS INDICATED. STILL SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN LATER FCSTS.

SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
MONDAY AS WELL BEFORE FROPA DUE TO AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES AROUND 25
PCT AND PRE GREEN UP CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THE FORECAST IS
MOST SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH WILL PICK UP WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOOKING TOO STABLE TO
INTRODUCE THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT... GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
DECENT LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY... SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. THERE SHOULD BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY... AS THE LOW MEANDERS BY
JUST TO THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM AND RISE TO
NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VALUES WILL FALL BACK
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 DEGREES AND NORMAL
LOWS ARE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...HOVING










000
FXUS63 KAPX 191737
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
137 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A
STATIONARY FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WET WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME MILDER FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING OFF BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

CURRENTLY, WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND THE
FORECAST AREA, THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER 95% OF THE REGION.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN A THIN SLIVER ALONG THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER, WHICH HAS BEGUN TO FORM FOG, AS WAS THOUGHT. IN FACT, THE
FOG IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RIVER. WILL
WATCH THIS, BUT WITH THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BY THE INVERSION ON THE
00Z SOUNDING, WILL EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC CONTINUES TO RADIATE EARLY
THIS MORNING, THAT MORE PATCHY FOG WILL FORM, IN E UPPER, AND INTO N
LOWER.

TODAY...PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING, BUT AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST, THE RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WARM AND MIX A
BIT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE EVIDENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE
AS THEY WILL BE UNDER THE RETURN FLOW LONGER. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE THE WHAT DO WE GET TO TEMPERATURE-WISE FOR THE DAY? HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO NW LOWER AND E UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
FILTER SOME OF THE SUNSHINE, AND NOT ALLOW AS MUCH MIXING WAS COULD
HAVE BEEN DONE, BUT IT SHOULD FEEL RATHER MILD AGAIN IN NW LOWER.
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH
OVER 70%) MOVING OVER A VERY DRY 850 MB LEVEL (RH<25% BY 00Z). SO
HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z, THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO MOISTEN AS THE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE 500 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT (WHICH ARE
NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO EACH OTHER) TIGHTEN UP. SO WILL EXPECT THAT
THE RAIN WILL START BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IN E UPPER AND AFTER 03Z IN
NW LOWER, AND AFTER 06Z IN NE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD BUT RATHER WET AS STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SHOP
RIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH RRQ JET DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CWA. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND TEMP PROFILES STILL SHOW PRECIP
WILL BE ALL RAIN...EVEN ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN. SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP WELL WEST OF MICHIGAN ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND WILL
SLIDE THRU NRN MICHIGAN BY MONDAY EVENING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION. BY THE TIME SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA...PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HAVE ENDED AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT SLIDE EAST OF MICHIGAN WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW. DAYTIME TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER
MILD...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE
MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
NRN LWR MICHIGAN. CAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK
INTO THE 30S.

TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THRU
THE COLUMN BUILD INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU
WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR WRN CWA AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND
SLOWLY CHURNS ITS WAY THRU NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK. SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS THE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND LIFT (AND THUS PRECIP)
WILL ARRIVE IN A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT (AT LEAST). PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN AHEAD
OF THE LOW PER TEMP PROFILES...WITH SOME SNOW BEGINNING TO MIX IN
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NW CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST OF OUR
CWA AND LOW LEVEL CAA COMMENCES. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WARM
THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON TUESDAY WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. CAA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN MOVING IN SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREA HYDROGRAPHS CONTINUE ON THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS RESIDUAL
RUNOFF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE BASINS. THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT QUESTIONS ARISE
WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY (CURRENT RIVER
FORECASTS ONLY CONTAIN 24H QPF...WHICH WOULD BE THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY). MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN IS A PARTICULAR CONCERN
GIVEN ITS RATHER DRAWN OUT RECESSION. CONTINGENCY QPF FORECASTS
WOULD SUGGEST A RENEWED RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A MODEST AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL (AT LEAST STAYING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE). SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS. POTENTIAL RISES ON THE PINE RIVER (EASTERN UPPER) AND
RIFLE RIVERS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RENEWED FLOOD CONCERNS AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...MR
HYDROLOGY...JPB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 191733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED THE GOING POP/WX/QPF GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LARGELY TO
DEAL WITH THE TRENDS SHOWN IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS
(HRRR/RAP/HOPWRF) AND THE INITIAL VIEWS OF THE 12Z
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL. ALL OF THESE MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE MAIN PUSH OF
850-700MB WAA MOVES OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THIS
OCCURS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN
SHORELINE OF ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND ALSO KEWEENAW COUNTY.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING...DON/T EXPECT ANY
CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN. BUT THERE COULD BE A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN...AS WETBULB ZEROS ARE BETWEEN
700-1100FT INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...THINK THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
(RAIN) WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND PRECIP MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THUS...HAVE SHOWN A DRIER TREND TO THE CENTRAL CWA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THAT PRECIP ARRIVING DURING THE MID EVENING
HOURS. THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS MADE. DID TREND THE QPF VALUES DOWN SOME FOR TONIGHT
BASED OFF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER
QPF OVER THE WEST CENTRAL...AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FORCING BECOME
DISPLACED UNTIL THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INCREASES THE PRECIP
OVER THE EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

WV LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CROSSING SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
THIS MORNING. SFC LOW IS TIED TO THE WAVE IN SIMILAR LOCATION WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
IS SUSTAINING LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. GRADIENT OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH 00Z RAOBS
SHOWING PWATS VARYING FM AROUND 0.20 INCHES AT KINL TO NEAR 0.70
INCHES AT KBIS. WARM AIR ADVECTION NOTICABLE WITH +10C H85 TEMP AT
KBIS AND -4C AT KINL AND KGRB. ALREADY SEEING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITHIN LAST FEW HOURS
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF MN. SOME LIGHTER RADAR ECHOES ARE
PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR BLO H8
IN VCNTY OF SFC RIDGE...IT IS NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND AS ANY
PRECIP. PRECIP OVER MN IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF BEST H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WITHIN SWATH OF H925-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY TO SFC OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION.

AS IT HAS LOOKED FOR A WHILE...PTYPE COULD BE BRIEF ISSUE AS THE
PRECIP FIRST BEGINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN COULD
BOTH BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND ANY ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH.
BY LATE MORNING...LOW-LEVEL SFC WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO TAKE FORM OF RAIN. QUANDARY FOR TODAY IS JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST CWA. NO DOUBT THE TEMP ADVECTION IS
STRONG AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FOCUSED...BUT PREFER TO LEAN AWAY FM
THE RATHER WET GFS OUTPUT...TRACKING A BULLSEYE OF WELL OVER 0.5
INCH OF QPF FM WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO THE KEWEEANW PENINSULA. SREF
PROBS OVER NORTHWEST CWA SHOW LESS THAN 10 PCT PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SUCH AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE DRY LOW-LEVELS WHICH ARE NOT COMPLETELY
ERODED...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE NAM/REGIONAL GEM AND ECMWF.
BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SINK ESE INTO CNTRL CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTN. DESPITE THE CLOUDS/RAIN IN SOME AREAS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
STILL INDICATES TEMPS LATER TODAY COULD REACH UPR 40S OR EVEN LOWER
50S. COOLEST TEMPS WHERE SE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW REMAIN
ONSHORE...SO GENERALLY KEWEENAW AND NEAR THE LK MICHIGAN SHORE.

EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT OVER ESPECIALLY THE
CNTRL AND EAST CWA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKS
NOW...DEFLECTS MORE NORTH ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
INSTEAD OF TRACKING EAST ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW
SUIT...LEAVING WEAKENING SFC TROUGH TO PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES SO SINCE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT. APPEARS WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ALONG
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT OF INCREASING JET STREAK ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCES BEHIND PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. H85 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST
TO EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN TONIGHT OUTPACING THE SFC FRONT...AND
THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
TROUGH WITH PWATS SURGING UP NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL WILL FOCUS
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. NAM/GEM-REGIONAL
AND ECMWF WHICH WERE PREFERRED DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...APPEAR TOO
LIGHT WITH QPF. ON FLIP SIDE...00Z GFS STILL APPEARS TOO WET SHOWING
6 HR QPF AMOUNTS OVER 0.90 INCHES...BUT THINK AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
AMOUNTS 0.25-0.50 INCH IN 6 HOURS IS LIKELY GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
AIMED RIGHT INTO CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN ON NOSE OF 45-50 KT SW H85 JET.
RAMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY LATE TONIGHT...AFT 06Z CNTRL AND 09Z EAST...H85
TROUGH SLIDES MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...ENDING POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER POPS.

ONCE THE RAIN DIMINISHES OVER THE WEST TONIGHT...EXPECT SFC DWPNTS
TO PUSH UP AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH FLOWING OVER A WET AND MELTING
SNOWPACK SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF FOG ESPECIALLY AS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING ATOP SATURATED SUB H85 LAYER. FOG
COULD FORM LATER IN THE EAST AS WELL AS THE RAIN ENDS...BUT FOR NOW
JUST KEPT IT IN FOR AREAS WHERE DWPNTS GET AT LEAST INTO THE MID 30S
AND THE LARGER SCALE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG. A MILD NIGHT WITH
THE HIGHER DWPNTS AS MOST AREAS STAY IN THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S.
INTERIOR WEST CWA MAY SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS MID 30S WHICH WOULD
PROBABLY RESULT IN DENSE FOG.

LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPS...RAIN...AND
MELTING SNOW...EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO BEGIN RISING TONIGHT AND WE
COULD BEGIN TO SEE ICE JAM ISSUES DEVELOP AGAIN. MORE DETAILS ON
THIS ARE IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM IS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL
INTERACTION BTWN A STALLED FNT/RIBBON OF HIER MSTR JUST S OF UPR MI
AND A SHRTWV THAT IS FCST TO MOVE E ACRS SRN CANADA ON MON AND IF/
HOW MUCH RA WL FALL OVER UPR MI AND IMPACT AREA STREAMS/HYDRO.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS LOWERED BY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BTWN THESE FEATURES.

SUN...AS SHRTWV/SFC LO OVER NW ONTARIO ON SUN MRNG MOVE E CLOSER TO
JAMES BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY...A SHRTWV RDG AND MID LVL DRYING ARE
FCST TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND DEPARTING/WEAKENING
ATTENDANT COOL FNT AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON. ALTHOUGH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THIS MID LVL DRYING WL
BE...THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER CNDN MODEL SHOWS ENUF DRYING TO END THE
PCPN OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA BY 00Z. OPTED TO RETAIN FLAVOR OF
GOING FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING POPS OVER THE SE HALF DIMINISHING
THRU THE DAY...AND ENDING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE BY 00Z MON.
OTRW...WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE MELTING SN
PACK TO DSPT BY THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE WL SUPPORT ABV
NORMAL TEMPS...BUT LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HI PRES UNDER THE
SHRTWV RDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZES THAT WL BRING LOCAL
COOLING NEAR THE SHORES.

SUN NGT/MON...SUN NGT WL START DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL CLOSER TO LINGERING STNRY FNT/MSTR AXIS. BUT AS NEXT SHRTWV
MOVING ESEWD ACRS SCENTRAL CAN IN THE NW FLOW E OF BLDG RDG OVER WRN
CANADA APRCHS AND GENERATES SOME HGT FALLS OVER THE UPR LKS...SOME
OF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECWMF/UKMET...SHOW DEEP MSTR TO
THE S EXPANDING BACK TO THE N LATE SUN NGT AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL AND E. THE NCEP MODELS ARE MUCH DRIER AND INDICATE MAINLY
SCT RA SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INCOMING SHRTWV.
THE 00Z CNDN MODEL SHOWS THE PCPN EXPANDING BACK FARTHER TO THE N
BUT NOT UNTIL MON. WHILE THE BLDG RDG OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTS THE
FARTHER N SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP MODELS...THE RATHER LARGE
SEPARATION BTWN THE DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION AND ABSENCE OF A SGNFT
BACKING OF THE UPR LVL WINDS TO A MORE SW DIRECTION INDICATE THE
DRIER NCEP GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING INTERACTION/PHASING BTWN DISPARATE
DISTURBANCES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LO IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.
FORTUNATELY...EVEN THE WETTER SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP
MODELS POINTS TO HEAVIER RA OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA...WHERE
LESS SN REMAINS. OTRW...MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MRNG WITH LGT WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR DRIER MID LVLS OVER
MELTING SN.

MON NGT...INCRSG NNW FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 25-30 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHRTWV THRU THE GREAT LKS IS FCST TO DROP
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -6 TO -7C BY 12Z TUE. WHILE THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT COLD ENUF FOR LK EFFECT SN...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW ENUF
LLVL MSTR TO JUSTIFY CHC POPS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR...
EXPECT THE RA SHOWERS TO MIX WITH OR CHG TO SN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIER TERRAIN OF THE W.

TUE INTO WED...CNDN SFC HI PRES RDG UNDER UPR RDG TRAILING DEPARTING
SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER WX TO THE CWA.

EXTENDED...NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SGNFT DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON THE HANDLING OF NEXT LO PRES THAT IS
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS LATER ON WED INTO FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES A COLDER SCENARIO WITH THE SFC LO PRES TRACKING TO THE S
OF UPR MI AND BLDG HI PRES JUST N OF LK WINNIPEG. THIS FCST WOULD
RESULT IN SOME MIXED PCPN AT THE ONSET AND LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
00Z GFS AND CNDN MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW A DEEPER LO FARTHER
TO THE N ALONG WITH A STRONGER SLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR. WL RELY ON
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

COMPLICATED 18Z TAF FORECAST DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS COMING TOGETHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE PRECIP FALLING OUT OF MID-CLOUDS...WOULD
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY AS VFR DUE TO LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE. AS THESE SHOWERS SHIFT EAST AND POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...THEY SHOULD AFFECT KSAW LATER THIS
EVENING BUT THERE TOO CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT LLWS TO AFFECT KCMX/KSAW THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. KIWD MAY SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS TOO...BUT IT WOULD ONLY BE A COUPLE HOURS IN
LENGTH.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST COMES FROM THE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE
SEEM TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LIKELY DUE
TO SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WON/T BE OVERLY SUPPORTIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT (ACTUALLY MORE LOW
STRATUS) UNTIL THEY WEAKEN LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL LOCATION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING IN. ONE REASON FOR MORE OF A LOW STRATUS IDEA IS
WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WOULD BE
DOWNSLOPING FOR KIWD AND OFF LAND AT KCMX (REDUCING COOLING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR). SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY 25-30 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THE RECENT HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER
CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM LOCAL LAKE
COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HI AS THE LO 40S...A
GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT...LO TEMPS WILL
FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING.
COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE
MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SN MELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING
ICE ON THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER
AIR ARRIVES THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC







000
FXUS63 KGRR 191709
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
109 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
COOLER WEATHER IN THE 50S RETURNS TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
MOVING ENE. THAT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT AS IT DRAGS A
COLD FRONT EAST WARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AND THOSE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. WE/LL
STILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO PUSH
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY
FIELD NOTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED LI/S DON/T FALL
BELOW 0C...THERE IS SOME MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT LATER MODEL RUNS.

GIVEN THE INCREASE IN TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS PLANTS AND TREES HAVE NOT
GREENED UP YET. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH PAST
15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION TO MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT...THE ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE SCATTERED.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SENDING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM STAYS WITH SOUTHWEST LOWER MI RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH MODELS
TRENDING FASTER WITH THE FRONT...LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO I DID BUMP UP POPS THEN.  VERY LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS...SO I WILL KEEP IT AT SHOWERS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF DECENT LIFT
AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...HOVING







000
FXUS63 KDTX 191700
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
100 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES BELOW 15K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LINGERING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

FOR DTW...A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THIS LAKE BREEZE ACROSS METRO
WILL TURN THE WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR AROUND 20Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FIRST THINGS FIRST...FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM JACKSON TO DETROIT AND
AND UP THROUGH MOUNT CLEMENS. THIS BAND IS ON THE EDGE OF THE 925MB
THETA E BOUNDARY THAT SANK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING AND
STALLED OVER THAT AREA. CIGS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN INCREASING AS DRY AIR
TAKES ITS TOLL ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY
FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE THUMB AS ONSHORE FLOW
ADVECTS MOIST AIR BELOW A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. OBS HAVE NOT BEEN
TOO FAVORABLE THUS FAR KEEPING A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 2-5
DEGREES FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE ARE SOME DIPPING TO AROUND A
DEGREE. WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY PUT AN END TO ANY FOG THAT
DOES TRY TO FORM.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MORE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE
HURON/ERIE SHORELINE AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL PASS OVER MI /AROUND 00Z SUNDAY/. SE MI WILL FALL ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LAKE
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOW 40S...THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT
TYPICAL SFC HEATING FROM THE MID APRIL SUN EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES.
QUESTION IS HOW FAR INLAND DOES THIS MARINE INFLUENCE MAKE IT?
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AREA WEST OF I-75 WILL GET A BIT MORE
INFLUENCE FORM THE SUN ALLOWING THEM TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S.
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL COMBAT THE
EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG POLAR JET STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...REACHING JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH NO
SOUTHERN STREAM COMPANION TO THIS WAVE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HANG UP JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES TO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL ANYWAY.

A SECOND POLAR SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
AND PHASE TO SOME DEGREE WITH A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM...AS PORTRAYED BY THE 00Z MODEL SUITE...HAS SLOWED
SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO
A LARGE PORTION OF MONDAY AND WILL UP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
70S AS NAM12/ECMWF/GFS ARE ALL RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE
POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z. WILL ALSO HAVE TO BACK OFF ON THE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOW WARRANTED AS LI/S DROP TO 0C OR BELOW AND SBCAPES
ARE FORECAST NEARING 500 J/KG...AT LEAST BY THE NAM12.

WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING AS THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES...AND THE RESULTANT DEEPER UPPER TROUGH HANGING BACK
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 50S ON AVERAGE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S. A SECOND WELL
PHASED STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST
AND WOBBLE INTO THE AREA AS IT OCCLUDES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO
AT LEAST PARTS OF FRIDAY. NOTABLY COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WAS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS 24 HOURS AGO AS WELL.

MARINE...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN REASONABLY QUIET INTO TONIGHT AS LIGHT EAST
FLOW...AVERAGING 10 KNOTS OR SO...CONTINUES TO FILTER OFF OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL THEN PASS NEAR THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...DROPPING
A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THIS AREA UNTIL THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DRAWS IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTH WINDS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KMQT 191530 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1130 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED THE GOING POP/WX/QPF GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LARGELY TO
DEAL WITH THE TRENDS SHOWN IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS
(HRRR/RAP/HOPWRF) AND THE INITIAL VIEWS OF THE 12Z
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL. ALL OF THESE MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE MAIN PUSH OF
850-700MB WAA MOVES OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THIS
OCCURS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN
SHORELINE OF ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND ALSO KEWEENAW COUNTY.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING...DON/T EXPECT ANY
CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN. BUT THERE COULD BE A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN...AS WETBULB ZEROS ARE BETWEEN
700-1100FT INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...THINK THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
(RAIN) WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND PRECIP MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THUS...HAVE SHOWN A DRIER TREND TO THE CENTRAL CWA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THAT PRECIP ARRIVING DURING THE MID EVENING
HOURS. THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS MADE. DID TREND THE QPF VALUES DOWN SOME FOR TONIGHT
BASED OFF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER
QPF OVER THE WEST CENTRAL...AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FORCING BECOME
DISPLACED UNTIL THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INCREASES THE PRECIP
OVER THE EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

WV LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CROSSING SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
THIS MORNING. SFC LOW IS TIED TO THE WAVE IN SIMILAR LOCATION WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
IS SUSTAINING LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. GRADIENT OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH 00Z RAOBS
SHOWING PWATS VARYING FM AROUND 0.20 INCHES AT KINL TO NEAR 0.70
INCHES AT KBIS. WARM AIR ADVECTION NOTICABLE WITH +10C H85 TEMP AT
KBIS AND -4C AT KINL AND KGRB. ALREADY SEEING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITHIN LAST FEW HOURS
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF MN. SOME LIGHTER RADAR ECHOES ARE
PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR BLO H8
IN VCNTY OF SFC RIDGE...IT IS NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND AS ANY
PRECIP. PRECIP OVER MN IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF BEST H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WITHIN SWATH OF H925-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY TO SFC OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION.

AS IT HAS LOOKED FOR A WHILE...PTYPE COULD BE BRIEF ISSUE AS THE
PRECIP FIRST BEGINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN COULD
BOTH BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND ANY ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH.
BY LATE MORNING...LOW-LEVEL SFC WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO TAKE FORM OF RAIN. QUANDARY FOR TODAY IS JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST CWA. NO DOUBT THE TEMP ADVECTION IS
STRONG AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FOCUSED...BUT PREFER TO LEAN AWAY FM
THE RATHER WET GFS OUTPUT...TRACKING A BULLSEYE OF WELL OVER 0.5
INCH OF QPF FM WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO THE KEWEEANW PENINSULA. SREF
PROBS OVER NORTHWEST CWA SHOW LESS THAN 10 PCT PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SUCH AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE DRY LOW-LEVELS WHICH ARE NOT COMPLETELY
ERODED...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE NAM/REGIONAL GEM AND ECMWF.
BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SINK ESE INTO CNTRL CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTN. DESPITE THE CLOUDS/RAIN IN SOME AREAS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
STILL INDICATES TEMPS LATER TODAY COULD REACH UPR 40S OR EVEN LOWER
50S. COOLEST TEMPS WHERE SE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW REMAIN
ONSHORE...SO GENERALLY KEWEENAW AND NEAR THE LK MICHIGAN SHORE.

EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT OVER ESPECIALLY THE
CNTRL AND EAST CWA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKS
NOW...DEFLECTS MORE NORTH ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
INSTEAD OF TRACKING EAST ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW
SUIT...LEAVING WEAKENING SFC TROUGH TO PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES SO SINCE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT. APPEARS WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ALONG
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT OF INCREASING JET STREAK ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCES BEHIND PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. H85 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST
TO EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN TONIGHT OUTPACING THE SFC FRONT...AND
THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
TROUGH WITH PWATS SURGING UP NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL WILL FOCUS
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. NAM/GEM-REGIONAL
AND ECMWF WHICH WERE PREFERRED DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...APPEAR TOO
LIGHT WITH QPF. ON FLIP SIDE...00Z GFS STILL APPEARS TOO WET SHOWING
6 HR QPF AMOUNTS OVER 0.90 INCHES...BUT THINK AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
AMOUNTS 0.25-0.50 INCH IN 6 HOURS IS LIKELY GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
AIMED RIGHT INTO CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN ON NOSE OF 45-50 KT SW H85 JET.
RAMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY LATE TONIGHT...AFT 06Z CNTRL AND 09Z EAST...H85
TROUGH SLIDES MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...ENDING POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER POPS.

ONCE THE RAIN DIMINISHES OVER THE WEST TONIGHT...EXPECT SFC DWPNTS
TO PUSH UP AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH FLOWING OVER A WET AND MELTING
SNOWPACK SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF FOG ESPECIALLY AS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING ATOP SATURATED SUB H85 LAYER. FOG
COULD FORM LATER IN THE EAST AS WELL AS THE RAIN ENDS...BUT FOR NOW
JUST KEPT IT IN FOR AREAS WHERE DWPNTS GET AT LEAST INTO THE MID 30S
AND THE LARGER SCALE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG. A MILD NIGHT WITH
THE HIGHER DWPNTS AS MOST AREAS STAY IN THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S.
INTERIOR WEST CWA MAY SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS MID 30S WHICH WOULD
PROBABLY RESULT IN DENSE FOG.

LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPS...RAIN...AND
MELTING SNOW...EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO BEGIN RISING TONIGHT AND WE
COULD BEGIN TO SEE ICE JAM ISSUES DEVELOP AGAIN. MORE DETAILS ON
THIS ARE IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM IS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL
INTERACTION BTWN A STALLED FNT/RIBBON OF HIER MSTR JUST S OF UPR MI
AND A SHRTWV THAT IS FCST TO MOVE E ACRS SRN CANADA ON MON AND IF/
HOW MUCH RA WL FALL OVER UPR MI AND IMPACT AREA STREAMS/HYDRO.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS LOWERED BY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BTWN THESE FEATURES.

SUN...AS SHRTWV/SFC LO OVER NW ONTARIO ON SUN MRNG MOVE E CLOSER TO
JAMES BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY...A SHRTWV RDG AND MID LVL DRYING ARE
FCST TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND DEPARTING/WEAKENING
ATTENDANT COOL FNT AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON. ALTHOUGH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THIS MID LVL DRYING WL
BE...THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER CNDN MODEL SHOWS ENUF DRYING TO END THE
PCPN OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA BY 00Z. OPTED TO RETAIN FLAVOR OF
GOING FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING POPS OVER THE SE HALF DIMINISHING
THRU THE DAY...AND ENDING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE BY 00Z MON.
OTRW...WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE MELTING SN
PACK TO DSPT BY THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE WL SUPPORT ABV
NORMAL TEMPS...BUT LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HI PRES UNDER THE
SHRTWV RDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZES THAT WL BRING LOCAL
COOLING NEAR THE SHORES.

SUN NGT/MON...SUN NGT WL START DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL CLOSER TO LINGERING STNRY FNT/MSTR AXIS. BUT AS NEXT SHRTWV
MOVING ESEWD ACRS SCENTRAL CAN IN THE NW FLOW E OF BLDG RDG OVER WRN
CANADA APRCHS AND GENERATES SOME HGT FALLS OVER THE UPR LKS...SOME
OF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECWMF/UKMET...SHOW DEEP MSTR TO
THE S EXPANDING BACK TO THE N LATE SUN NGT AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL AND E. THE NCEP MODELS ARE MUCH DRIER AND INDICATE MAINLY
SCT RA SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INCOMING SHRTWV.
THE 00Z CNDN MODEL SHOWS THE PCPN EXPANDING BACK FARTHER TO THE N
BUT NOT UNTIL MON. WHILE THE BLDG RDG OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTS THE
FARTHER N SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP MODELS...THE RATHER LARGE
SEPARATION BTWN THE DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION AND ABSENCE OF A SGNFT
BACKING OF THE UPR LVL WINDS TO A MORE SW DIRECTION INDICATE THE
DRIER NCEP GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING INTERACTION/PHASING BTWN DISPARATE
DISTURBANCES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LO IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.
FORTUNATELY...EVEN THE WETTER SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP
MODELS POINTS TO HEAVIER RA OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA...WHERE
LESS SN REMAINS. OTRW...MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MRNG WITH LGT WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR DRIER MID LVLS OVER
MELTING SN.

MON NGT...INCRSG NNW FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 25-30 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHRTWV THRU THE GREAT LKS IS FCST TO DROP
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -6 TO -7C BY 12Z TUE. WHILE THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT COLD ENUF FOR LK EFFECT SN...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW ENUF
LLVL MSTR TO JUSTIFY CHC POPS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR...
EXPECT THE RA SHOWERS TO MIX WITH OR CHG TO SN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIER TERRAIN OF THE W.

TUE INTO WED...CNDN SFC HI PRES RDG UNDER UPR RDG TRAILING DEPARTING
SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER WX TO THE CWA.

EXTENDED...NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SGNFT DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON THE HANDLING OF NEXT LO PRES THAT IS
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS LATER ON WED INTO FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES A COLDER SCENARIO WITH THE SFC LO PRES TRACKING TO THE S
OF UPR MI AND BLDG HI PRES JUST N OF LK WINNIPEG. THIS FCST WOULD
RESULT IN SOME MIXED PCPN AT THE ONSET AND LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
00Z GFS AND CNDN MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW A DEEPER LO FARTHER
TO THE N ALONG WITH A STRONGER SLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR. WL RELY ON
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY...LINGERING DRY
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR EVEN IF SOME RAIN
OCCURS. BEST CHC OF MORE STEADIER SHOWERS IS THIS AFTN AT KCMX SO
HAVE WENT WITH AN MVFR VSBY. SPRINKLES MAY AFFECT KIWD MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. KSAW SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY. BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL
OCCUR LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KIWD/KCMX AND LATER IN
THE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KSAW. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS TODAY AND HOW QUICKLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CAN
DEPART LATER TONIGHT...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL THE
TERMINALS. WITH UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING LOWER THAN
MVFR VSBY ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY 25-30 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THE RECENT HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER
CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM LOCAL LAKE
COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HI AS THE LO 40S...A
GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT...LO TEMPS WILL
FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING.
COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE
MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SN MELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING
ICE ON THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER
AIR ARRIVES THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 191141
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

WV LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CROSSING SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
THIS MORNING. SFC LOW IS TIED TO THE WAVE IN SIMILAR LOCATION WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
IS SUSTAINING LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. GRADIENT OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH 00Z RAOBS
SHOWING PWATS VARYING FM AROUND 0.20 INCHES AT KINL TO NEAR 0.70
INCHES AT KBIS. WARM AIR ADVECTION NOTICABLE WITH +10C H85 TEMP AT
KBIS AND -4C AT KINL AND KGRB. ALREADY SEEING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITHIN LAST FEW HOURS
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF MN. SOME LIGHTER RADAR ECHOES ARE
PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR BLO H8
IN VCNTY OF SFC RIDGE...IT IS NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND AS ANY
PRECIP. PRECIP OVER MN IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF BEST H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WITHIN SWATH OF H925-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY TO SFC OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION.

AS IT HAS LOOKED FOR A WHILE...PTYPE COULD BE BRIEF ISSUE AS THE
PRECIP FIRST BEGINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN COULD
BOTH BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND ANY ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH.
BY LATE MORNING...LOW-LEVEL SFC WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO TAKE FORM OF RAIN. QUANDARY FOR TODAY IS JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST CWA. NO DOUBT THE TEMP ADVECTION IS
STRONG AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FOCUSED...BUT PREFER TO LEAN AWAY FM
THE RATHER WET GFS OUTPUT...TRACKING A BULLSEYE OF WELL OVER 0.5
INCH OF QPF FM WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO THE KEWEEANW PENINSULA. SREF
PROBS OVER NORTHWEST CWA SHOW LESS THAN 10 PCT PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SUCH AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE DRY LOW-LEVELS WHICH ARE NOT COMPLETELY
ERODED...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE NAM/REGIONAL GEM AND ECMWF.
BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SINK ESE INTO CNTRL CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTN. DESPITE THE CLOUDS/RAIN IN SOME AREAS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
STILL INDICATES TEMPS LATER TODAY COULD REACH UPR 40S OR EVEN LOWER
50S. COOLEST TEMPS WHERE SE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW REMAIN
ONSHORE...SO GENERALLY KEWEENAW AND NEAR THE LK MICHIGAN SHORE.

EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT OVER ESPECIALLY THE
CNTRL AND EAST CWA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKS
NOW...DEFLECTS MORE NORTH ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
INSTEAD OF TRACKING EAST ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW
SUIT...LEAVING WEAKENING SFC TROUGH TO PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES SO SINCE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT. APPEARS WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ALONG
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT OF INCREASING JET STREAK ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCES BEHIND PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. H85 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST
TO EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN TONIGHT OUTPACING THE SFC FRONT...AND
THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
TROUGH WITH PWATS SURGING UP NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL WILL FOCUS
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. NAM/GEM-REGIONAL
AND ECMWF WHICH WERE PREFERRED DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...APPEAR TOO
LIGHT WITH QPF. ON FLIP SIDE...00Z GFS STILL APPEARS TOO WET SHOWING
6 HR QPF AMOUNTS OVER 0.90 INCHES...BUT THINK AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
AMOUNTS 0.25-0.50 INCH IN 6 HOURS IS LIKELY GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
AIMED RIGHT INTO CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN ON NOSE OF 45-50 KT SW H85 JET.
RAMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY LATE TONIGHT...AFT 06Z CNTRL AND 09Z EAST...H85
TROUGH SLIDES MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...ENDING POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER POPS.

ONCE THE RAIN DIMINISHES OVER THE WEST TONIGHT...EXPECT SFC DWPNTS
TO PUSH UP AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH FLOWING OVER A WET AND MELTING
SNOWPACK SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF FOG ESPECIALLY AS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING ATOP SATURATED SUB H85 LAYER. FOG
COULD FORM LATER IN THE EAST AS WELL AS THE RAIN ENDS...BUT FOR NOW
JUST KEPT IT IN FOR AREAS WHERE DWPNTS GET AT LEAST INTO THE MID 30S
AND THE LARGER SCALE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG. A MILD NIGHT WITH
THE HIGHER DWPNTS AS MOST AREAS STAY IN THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S.
INTERIOR WEST CWA MAY SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS MID 30S WHICH WOULD
PROBABLY RESULT IN DENSE FOG.

LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPS...RAIN...AND
MELTING SNOW...EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO BEGIN RISING TONIGHT AND WE
COULD BEGIN TO SEE ICE JAM ISSUES DEVELOP AGAIN. MORE DETAILS ON
THIS ARE IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM IS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL
INTERACTION BTWN A STALLED FNT/RIBBON OF HIER MSTR JUST S OF UPR MI
AND A SHRTWV THAT IS FCST TO MOVE E ACRS SRN CANADA ON MON AND IF/
HOW MUCH RA WL FALL OVER UPR MI AND IMPACT AREA STREAMS/HYDRO.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS LOWERED BY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BTWN THESE FEATURES.

SUN...AS SHRTWV/SFC LO OVER NW ONTARIO ON SUN MRNG MOVE E CLOSER TO
JAMES BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY...A SHRTWV RDG AND MID LVL DRYING ARE
FCST TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND DEPARTING/WEAKENING
ATTENDANT COOL FNT AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON. ALTHOUGH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THIS MID LVL DRYING WL
BE...THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER CNDN MODEL SHOWS ENUF DRYING TO END THE
PCPN OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA BY 00Z. OPTED TO RETAIN FLAVOR OF
GOING FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING POPS OVER THE SE HALF DIMINISHING
THRU THE DAY...AND ENDING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE BY 00Z MON.
OTRW...WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE MELTING SN
PACK TO DSPT BY THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE WL SUPPORT ABV
NORMAL TEMPS...BUT LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HI PRES UNDER THE
SHRTWV RDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZES THAT WL BRING LOCAL
COOLING NEAR THE SHORES.

SUN NGT/MON...SUN NGT WL START DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL CLOSER TO LINGERING STNRY FNT/MSTR AXIS. BUT AS NEXT SHRTWV
MOVING ESEWD ACRS SCENTRAL CAN IN THE NW FLOW E OF BLDG RDG OVER WRN
CANADA APRCHS AND GENERATES SOME HGT FALLS OVER THE UPR LKS...SOME
OF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECWMF/UKMET...SHOW DEEP MSTR TO
THE S EXPANDING BACK TO THE N LATE SUN NGT AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL AND E. THE NCEP MODELS ARE MUCH DRIER AND INDICATE MAINLY
SCT RA SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INCOMING SHRTWV.
THE 00Z CNDN MODEL SHOWS THE PCPN EXPANDING BACK FARTHER TO THE N
BUT NOT UNTIL MON. WHILE THE BLDG RDG OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTS THE
FARTHER N SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP MODELS...THE RATHER LARGE
SEPARATION BTWN THE DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION AND ABSENCE OF A SGNFT
BACKING OF THE UPR LVL WINDS TO A MORE SW DIRECTION INDICATE THE
DRIER NCEP GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING INTERACTION/PHASING BTWN DISPARATE
DISTURBANCES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LO IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.
FORTUNATELY...EVEN THE WETTER SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP
MODELS POINTS TO HEAVIER RA OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA...WHERE
LESS SN REMAINS. OTRW...MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MRNG WITH LGT WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR DRIER MID LVLS OVER
MELTING SN.

MON NGT...INCRSG NNW FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 25-30 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHRTWV THRU THE GREAT LKS IS FCST TO DROP
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -6 TO -7C BY 12Z TUE. WHILE THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT COLD ENUF FOR LK EFFECT SN...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW ENUF
LLVL MSTR TO JUSTIFY CHC POPS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR...
EXPECT THE RA SHOWERS TO MIX WITH OR CHG TO SN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIER TERRAIN OF THE W.

TUE INTO WED...CNDN SFC HI PRES RDG UNDER UPR RDG TRAILING DEPARTING
SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER WX TO THE CWA.

EXTENDED...NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SGNFT DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON THE HANDLING OF NEXT LO PRES THAT IS
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS LATER ON WED INTO FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES A COLDER SCENARIO WITH THE SFC LO PRES TRACKING TO THE S
OF UPR MI AND BLDG HI PRES JUST N OF LK WINNIPEG. THIS FCST WOULD
RESULT IN SOME MIXED PCPN AT THE ONSET AND LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
00Z GFS AND CNDN MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW A DEEPER LO FARTHER
TO THE N ALONG WITH A STRONGER SLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR. WL RELY ON
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY...LINGERING DRY
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR EVEN IF SOME RAIN
OCCURS. BEST CHC OF MORE STEADIER SHOWERS IS THIS AFTN AT KCMX SO
HAVE WENT WITH AN MVFR VSBY. SPRINKLES MAY AFFECT KIWD MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. KSAW SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY. BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL
OCCUR LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KIWD/KCMX AND LATER IN
THE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KSAW. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS TODAY AND HOW QUICKLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CAN
DEPART LATER TONIGHT...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL THE
TERMINALS. WITH UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING LOWER THAN
MVFR VSBY ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY 25-30 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THE RECENT HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER
CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM LOCAL LAKE
COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HI AS THE LO 40S...A
GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT...LO TEMPS WILL
FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING.
COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE
MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SN MELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING
ICE ON THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER
AIR ARRIVES THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC







000
FXUS63 KDTX 191056
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
656 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
YIELDING FAVORABLE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
VEER WITH TIME FROM NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FIRST THINGS FIRST...FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM JACKSON TO DETROIT AND
AND UP THROUGH MOUNT CLEMENS. THIS BAND IS ON THE EDGE OF THE 925MB
THETA E BOUNDARY THAT SANK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING AND
STALLED OVER THAT AREA. CIGS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN INCREASING AS DRY AIR
TAKES ITS TOLL ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY
FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE THUMB AS ONSHORE FLOW
ADVECTS MOIST AIR BELOW A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. OBS HAVE NOT BEEN
TOO FAVORABLE THUS FAR KEEPING A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 2-5
DEGREES FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE ARE SOME DIPPING TO AROUND A
DEGREE. WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY PUT AN END TO ANY FOG THAT
DOES TRY TO FORM.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MORE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE
HURON/ERIE SHORELINE AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL PASS OVER MI /AROUND 00Z SUNDAY/. SE MI WILL FALL ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LAKE
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOW 40S...THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT
TYPICAL SFC HEATING FROM THE MID APRIL SUN EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES.
QUESTION IS HOW FAR INLAND DOES THIS MARINE INFLUENCE MAKE IT?
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AREA WEST OF I-75 WILL GET A BIT MORE
INFLUENCE FORM THE SUN ALLOWING THEM TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S.
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL COMBAT THE
EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG POLAR JET STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...REACHING JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH NO
SOUTHERN STREAM COMPANION TO THIS WAVE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HANG UP JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES TO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL ANYWAY.

A SECOND POLAR SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
AND PHASE TO SOME DEGREE WITH A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM...AS PORTRAYED BY THE 00Z MODEL SUITE...HAS SLOWED
SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO
A LARGE PORTION OF MONDAY AND WILL UP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
70S AS NAM12/ECMWF/GFS ARE ALL RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE
POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z. WILL ALSO HAVE TO BACK OFF ON THE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOW WARRANTED AS LI/S DROP TO 0C OR BELOW AND SBCAPES
ARE FORECAST NEARING 500 J/KG...AT LEAST BY THE NAM12.

WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING AS THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES...AND THE RESULTANT DEEPER UPPER TROUGH HANGING BACK
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 50S ON AVERAGE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S. A SECOND WELL
PHASED STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST
AND WOBBLE INTO THE AREA AS IT OCCLUDES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO
AT LEAST PARTS OF FRIDAY. NOTABLY COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WAS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS 24 HOURS AGO AS WELL.

MARINE...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN REASONABLY QUIET INTO TONIGHT AS LIGHT EAST
FLOW...AVERAGING 10 KNOTS OR SO...CONTINUES TO FILTER OFF OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL THEN PASS NEAR THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...DROPPING
A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THIS AREA UNTIL THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DRAWS IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTH WINDS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 191047
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
647 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
COOLER WEATHER IN THE 50S RETURNS TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
MOVING ENE. THAT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT AS IT DRAGS A
COLD FRONT EAST WARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AND THOSE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. WE/LL
STILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO PUSH
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY
FIELD NOTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED LI/S DON/T FALL
BELOW 0C...THERE IS SOME MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT LATER MODEL RUNS.

GIVEN THE INCREASE IN TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS PLANTS AND TREES HAVE NOT
GREENED UP YET. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH PAST
15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION TO MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT...THE ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE SCATTERED.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SENDING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM STAYS WITH SOUTHWEST LOWER MI RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH MODELS
TRENDING FASTER WITH THE FRONT...LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO I DID BUMP UP POPS THEN.  VERY LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS...SO I WILL KEEP IT AT SHOWERS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF DECENT LIFT
AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

QUIET WEATHER IN THE AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING







000
FXUS63 KAPX 191045
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A
STATIONARY FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WET WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME MILDER FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING OFF BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

CURRENTLY, WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND THE
FORECAST AREA, THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER 95% OF THE REGION.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN A THIN SLIVER ALONG THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER, WHICH HAS BEGUN TO FORM FOG, AS WAS THOUGHT. IN FACT, THE
FOG IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RIVER. WILL
WATCH THIS, BUT WITH THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BY THE INVERSION ON THE
00Z SOUNDING, WILL EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC CONTINUES TO RADIATE EARLY
THIS MORNING, THAT MORE PATCHY FOG WILL FORM, IN E UPPER, AND INTO N
LOWER.

TODAY...PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING, BUT AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST, THE RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WARM AND MIX A
BIT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE EVIDENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE
AS THEY WILL BE UNDER THE RETURN FLOW LONGER. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE THE WHAT DO WE GET TO TEMPERATURE-WISE FOR THE DAY? HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO NW LOWER AND E UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
FILTER SOME OF THE SUNSHINE, AND NOT ALLOW AS MUCH MIXING WAS COULD
HAVE BEEN DONE, BUT IT SHOULD FEEL RATHER MILD AGAIN IN NW LOWER.
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH
OVER 70%) MOVING OVER A VERY DRY 850 MB LEVEL (RH<25% BY 00Z). SO
HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z, THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO MOISTEN AS THE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE 500 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT (WHICH ARE
NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO EACH OTHER) TIGHTEN UP. SO WILL EXPECT THAT
THE RAIN WILL START BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IN E UPPER AND AFTER 03Z IN
NW LOWER, AND AFTER 06Z IN NE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD BUT RATHER WET AS STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SHOP
RIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH RRQ JET DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CWA. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND TEMP PROFILES STILL SHOW PRECIP
WILL BE ALL RAIN...EVEN ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN. SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP WELL WEST OF MICHIGAN ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND WILL
SLIDE THRU NRN MICHIGAN BY MONDAY EVENING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION. BY THE TIME SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA...PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HAVE ENDED AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT SLIDE EAST OF MICHIGAN WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW. DAYTIME TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER
MILD...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE
MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
NRN LWR MICHIGAN. CAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK
INTO THE 30S.

TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THRU
THE COLUMN BUILD INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU
WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR WRN CWA AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND
SLOWLY CHURNS ITS WAY THRU NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK. SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS THE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND LIFT (AND THUS PRECIP)
WILL ARRIVE IN A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT (AT LEAST). PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN AHEAD
OF THE LOW PER TEMP PROFILES...WITH SOME SNOW BEGINNING TO MIX IN
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NW CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST OF OUR
CWA AND LOW LEVEL CAA COMMENCES. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WARM
THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON TUESDAY WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. CAA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING IFR STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
THE TIP OF THE MITT (PLN)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OF MICHIGAN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THRU THIS EVENING AS RETURN S/SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AS A STATIONARY
FRONT LEANS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE AT AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...WITH LLWS DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN BUT DECOUPLING DROPS SURFACE WINDS TO OR BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREA HYDROGRAPHS CONTINUE ON THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS RESIDUAL
RUNOFF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE BASINS. THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT QUESTIONS ARISE
WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY (CURRENT RIVER
FORECASTS ONLY CONTAIN 24H QPF...WHICH WOULD BE THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY). MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN IS A PARTICULAR CONCERN
GIVEN ITS RATHER DRAWN OUT RECESSION. CONTINGENCY QPF FORECASTS
WOULD SUGGEST A RENEWED RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A MODEST AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL (AT LEAST STAYING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE). SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS. POTENTIAL RISES ON THE PINE RIVER (EASTERN UPPER) AND
RIFLE RIVERS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RENEWED FLOOD CONCERNS AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
HYDROLOGY...JPB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 190915
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

WV LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CROSSING SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
THIS MORNING. SFC LOW IS TIED TO THE WAVE IN SIMILAR LOCATION WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
IS SUSTAINING LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. GRADIENT OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH 00Z RAOBS
SHOWING PWATS VARYING FM AROUND 0.20 INCHES AT KINL TO NEAR 0.70
INCHES AT KBIS. WARM AIR ADVECTION NOTICABLE WITH +10C H85 TEMP AT
KBIS AND -4C AT KINL AND KGRB. ALREADY SEEING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITHIN LAST FEW HOURS
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF MN. SOME LIGHTER RADAR ECHOES ARE
PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR BLO H8
IN VCNTY OF SFC RIDGE...IT IS NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND AS ANY
PRECIP. PRECIP OVER MN IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF BEST H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WITHIN SWATH OF H925-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY TO SFC OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION.

AS IT HAS LOOKED FOR A WHILE...PTYPE COULD BE BRIEF ISSUE AS THE
PRECIP FIRST BEGINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN COULD
BOTH BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND ANY ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH.
BY LATE MORNING...LOW-LEVEL SFC WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO TAKE FORM OF RAIN. QUANDARY FOR TODAY IS JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST CWA. NO DOUBT THE TEMP ADVECTION IS
STRONG AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FOCUSED...BUT PREFER TO LEAN AWAY FM
THE RATHER WET GFS OUTPUT...TRACKING A BULLSEYE OF WELL OVER 0.5
INCH OF QPF FM WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO THE KEWEEANW PENINSULA. SREF
PROBS OVER NORTHWEST CWA SHOW LESS THAN 10 PCT PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SUCH AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE DRY LOW-LEVELS WHICH ARE NOT COMPLETELY
ERODED...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE NAM/REGIONAL GEM AND ECMWF.
BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SINK ESE INTO CNTRL CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTN. DESPITE THE CLOUDS/RAIN IN SOME AREAS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
STILL INDICATES TEMPS LATER TODAY COULD REACH UPR 40S OR EVEN LOWER
50S. COOLEST TEMPS WHERE SE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW REMAIN
ONSHORE...SO GENERALLY KEWEENAW AND NEAR THE LK MICHIGAN SHORE.

EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT OVER ESPECIALLY THE
CNTRL AND EAST CWA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKS
NOW...DEFLECTS MORE NORTH ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
INSTEAD OF TRACKING EAST ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW
SUIT...LEAVING WEAKENING SFC TROUGH TO PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES SO SINCE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT. APPEARS WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ALONG
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT OF INCREASING JET STREAK ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCES BEHIND PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. H85 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST
TO EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN TONIGHT OUTPACING THE SFC FRONT...AND
THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
TROUGH WITH PWATS SURGING UP NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL WILL FOCUS
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. NAM/GEM-REGIONAL
AND ECMWF WHICH WERE PREFERRED DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...APPEAR TOO
LIGHT WITH QPF. ON FLIP SIDE...00Z GFS STILL APPEARS TOO WET SHOWING
6 HR QPF AMOUNTS OVER 0.90 INCHES...BUT THINK AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
AMOUNTS 0.25-0.50 INCH IN 6 HOURS IS LIKELY GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
AIMED RIGHT INTO CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN ON NOSE OF 45-50 KT SW H85 JET.
RAMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY LATE TONIGHT...AFT 06Z CNTRL AND 09Z EAST...H85
TROUGH SLIDES MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...ENDING POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER POPS.

ONCE THE RAIN DIMINISHES OVER THE WEST TONIGHT...EXPECT SFC DWPNTS
TO PUSH UP AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH FLOWING OVER A WET AND MELTING
SNOWPACK SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF FOG ESPECIALLY AS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING ATOP SATURATED SUB H85 LAYER. FOG
COULD FORM LATER IN THE EAST AS WELL AS THE RAIN ENDS...BUT FOR NOW
JUST KEPT IT IN FOR AREAS WHERE DWPNTS GET AT LEAST INTO THE MID 30S
AND THE LARGER SCALE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG. A MILD NIGHT WITH
THE HIGHER DWPNTS AS MOST AREAS STAY IN THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S.
INTERIOR WEST CWA MAY SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS MID 30S WHICH WOULD
PROBABLY RESULT IN DENSE FOG.

LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPS...RAIN...AND
MELTING SNOW...EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO BEGIN RISING TONIGHT AND WE
COULD BEGIN TO SEE ICE JAM ISSUES DEVELOP AGAIN. MORE DETAILS ON
THIS ARE IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM IS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL
INTERACTION BTWN A STALLED FNT/RIBBON OF HIER MSTR JUST S OF UPR MI
AND A SHRTWV THAT IS FCST TO MOVE E ACRS SRN CANADA ON MON AND IF/
HOW MUCH RA WL FALL OVER UPR MI AND IMPACT AREA STREAMS/HYDRO.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS LOWERED BY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BTWN THESE FEATURES.

SUN...AS SHRTWV/SFC LO OVER NW ONTARIO ON SUN MRNG MOVE E CLOSER TO
JAMES BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY...A SHRTWV RDG AND MID LVL DRYING ARE
FCST TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND DEPARTING/WEAKENING
ATTENDANT COOL FNT AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON. ALTHOUGH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THIS MID LVL DRYING WL
BE...THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER CNDN MODEL SHOWS ENUF DRYING TO END THE
PCPN OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA BY 00Z. OPTED TO RETAIN FLAVOR OF
GOING FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING POPS OVER THE SE HALF DIMINISHING
THRU THE DAY...AND ENDING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE BY 00Z MON.
OTRW...WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE MELTING SN
PACK TO DSPT BY THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE WL SUPPORT ABV
NORMAL TEMPS...BUT LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HI PRES UNDER THE
SHRTWV RDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZES THAT WL BRING LOCAL
COOLING NEAR THE SHORES.

SUN NGT/MON...SUN NGT WL START DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL CLOSER TO LINGERING STNRY FNT/MSTR AXIS. BUT AS NEXT SHRTWV
MOVING ESEWD ACRS SCENTRAL CAN IN THE NW FLOW E OF BLDG RDG OVER WRN
CANADA APRCHS AND GENERATES SOME HGT FALLS OVER THE UPR LKS...SOME
OF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECWMF/UKMET...SHOW DEEP MSTR TO
THE S EXPANDING BACK TO THE N LATE SUN NGT AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL AND E. THE NCEP MODELS ARE MUCH DRIER AND INDICATE MAINLY
SCT RA SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INCOMING SHRTWV.
THE 00Z CNDN MODEL SHOWS THE PCPN EXPANDING BACK FARTHER TO THE N
BUT NOT UNTIL MON. WHILE THE BLDG RDG OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTS THE
FARTHER N SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP MODELS...THE RATHER LARGE
SEPARATION BTWN THE DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION AND ABSENCE OF A SGNFT
BACKING OF THE UPR LVL WINDS TO A MORE SW DIRECTION INDICATE THE
DRIER NCEP GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING INTERACTION/PHASING BTWN DISPARATE
DISTURBANCES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LO IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.
FORTUNATELY...EVEN THE WETTER SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP
MODELS POINTS TO HEAVIER RA OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA...WHERE
LESS SN REMAINS. OTRW...MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MRNG WITH LGT WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR DRIER MID LVLS OVER
MELTING SN.

MON NGT...INCRSG NNW FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 25-30 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHRTWV THRU THE GREAT LKS IS FCST TO DROP
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -6 TO -7C BY 12Z TUE. WHILE THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT COLD ENUF FOR LK EFFECT SN...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW ENUF
LLVL MSTR TO JUSTIFY CHC POPS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR...
EXPECT THE RA SHOWERS TO MIX WITH OR CHG TO SN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIER TERRAIN OF THE W.

TUE INTO WED...CNDN SFC HI PRES RDG UNDER UPR RDG TRAILING DEPARTING
SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER WX TO THE CWA.

EXTENDED...NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SGNFT DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON THE HANDLING OF NEXT LO PRES THAT IS
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS LATER ON WED INTO FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES A COLDER SCENARIO WITH THE SFC LO PRES TRACKING TO THE S
OF UPR MI AND BLDG HI PRES JUST N OF LK WINNIPEG. THIS FCST WOULD
RESULT IN SOME MIXED PCPN AT THE ONSET AND LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
00Z GFS AND CNDN MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW A DEEPER LO FARTHER
TO THE N ALONG WITH A STRONGER SLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR. WL RELY ON
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX THRU THE NIGHT WITH ONLY
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS INCREASING OVER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. AT
KSAW...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SUFFICIENT BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS
ARRIVE TO RESULT IN FOG/MVFR VIS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO INCREASE TODAY...LINGERING DRY LOW-LEVELS MAKES PCPN FCST LESS
CERTAIN. BEST CHC OF DRY LOW-LEVELS GIVING WAY IS AT KCMX. SOME SHRA
ARE EXPECTED THERE IN THE AFTN. SPRINKLES MAY AFFECT KIWD. BETTER
CHC OF SHRA WILL OCCUR LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX AND IN THE EVENING AT
KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE...THOUGH KCMX MAY
FALL TO MVFR WITH SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SHRA EXPECTED THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY 25-30 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THE RECENT HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER
CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM LOCAL LAKE
COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HI AS THE LO 40S...A
GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT...LO TEMPS WILL
FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING.
COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE
MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SN MELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING
ICE ON THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER
AIR ARRIVES THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 190909
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
509 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER MT/WY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 1031MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA. THE ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO ECENTRAL MANITOBA/ECENTRAL ONTARIO BY 00Z
SUN.

CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD MAY ALLOW SOME FOG
TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
THERE.

PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA SAT MORNING AS STRONG FORCING FROM
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA AND LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE NEEDED AS THE AIRMASS ABOVE THE NEAR SFC
INVERSION WILL BE QUITE DRY. THIS DRYNESS SHOULD HOLD THE PRECIP OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z OVER UPPER MI...WHICH ALLOWS FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE
IN...MAKING RAIN THE DOMINANT PTYPE ON SAT. DO HAVE SOME SNOW EARLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP
UNTIL LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. ANOTHER AREA OF
MIXED PRECIP IS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI WHERE THE RAIN WILL START
BEFORE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING...SOME SOME VERY MINOR FREEZING
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THERE EARLY. AS FAR AS PRECIP
AMOUNTS...HAVE NO QPF SCENTRAL AND E...WITH UP TO 0.40 INCHES OVER
THE KEWEENAW ON SAT. THE PRECIP MOVES SE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE DETAILS OF
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM IS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL
INTERACTION BTWN A STALLED FNT/RIBBON OF HIER MSTR JUST S OF UPR MI
AND A SHRTWV THAT IS FCST TO MOVE E ACRS SRN CANADA ON MON AND IF/
HOW MUCH RA WL FALL OVER UPR MI AND IMPACT AREA STREAMS/HYDRO.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS LOWERED BY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BTWN THESE FEATURES.

SUN...AS SHRTWV/SFC LO OVER NW ONTARIO ON SUN MRNG MOVE E CLOSER TO
JAMES BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY...A SHRTWV RDG AND MID LVL DRYING ARE
FCST TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND DEPARTING/WEAKENING
ATTENDANT COOL FNT AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON. ALTHOUGH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THIS MID LVL DRYING WL
BE...THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER CNDN MODEL SHOWS ENUF DRYING TO END THE
PCPN OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA BY 00Z. OPTED TO RETAIN FLAVOR OF
GOING FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING POPS OVER THE SE HALF DIMINISHING
THRU THE DAY...AND ENDING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE BY 00Z MON.
OTRW...WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE MELTING SN
PACK TO DSPT BY THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE WL SUPPORT ABV
NORMAL TEMPS...BUT LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HI PRES UNDER THE
SHRTWV RDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZES THAT WL BRING LOCAL
COOLING NEAR THE SHORES.

SUN NGT/MON...SUN NGT WL START DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL CLOSER TO LINGERING STNRY FNT/MSTR AXIS. BUT AS NEXT SHRTWV
MOVING ESEWD ACRS SCENTRAL CAN IN THE NW FLOW E OF BLDG RDG OVER WRN
CANADA APRCHS AND GENERATES SOME HGT FALLS OVER THE UPR LKS...SOME
OF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECWMF/UKMET...SHOW DEEP MSTR TO
THE S EXPANDING BACK TO THE N LATE SUN NGT AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL AND E. THE NCEP MODELS ARE MUCH DRIER AND INDICATE MAINLY
SCT RA SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INCOMING SHRTWV.
THE 00Z CNDN MODEL SHOWS THE PCPN EXPANDING BACK FARTHER TO THE N
BUT NOT UNTIL MON. WHILE THE BLDG RDG OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTS THE
FARTHER N SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP MODELS...THE RATHER LARGE
SEPARATION BTWN THE DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION AND ABSENCE OF A SGNFT
BACKING OF THE UPR LVL WINDS TO A MORE SW DIRECTION INDICATE THE
DRIER NCEP GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING INTERACTION/PHASING BTWN DISPARATE
DISTURBANCES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LO IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.
FORTUNATELY...EVEN THE WETTER SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP
MODELS POINTS TO HEAVIER RA OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA...WHERE
LESS SN REMAINS. OTRW...MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MRNG WITH LGT WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR DRIER MID LVLS OVER
MELTING SN.

MON NGT...INCRSG NNW FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 25-30 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHRTWV THRU THE GREAT LKS IS FCST TO DROP
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -6 TO -7C BY 12Z TUE. WHILE THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT COLD ENUF FOR LK EFFECT SN...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW ENUF
LLVL MSTR TO JUSTIFY CHC POPS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR...
EXPECT THE RA SHOWERS TO MIX WITH OR CHG TO SN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIER TERRAIN OF THE W.

TUE INTO WED...CNDN SFC HI PRES RDG UNDER UPR RDG TRAILING DEPARTING
SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER WX TO THE CWA.

EXTENDED...NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SGNFT DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON THE HANDLING OF NEXT LO PRES THAT IS
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS LATER ON WED INTO FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES A COLDER SCENARIO WITH THE SFC LO PRES TRACKING TO THE S
OF UPR MI AND BLDG HI PRES JUST N OF LK WINNIPEG. THIS FCST WOULD
RESULT IN SOME MIXED PCPN AT THE ONSET AND LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
00Z GFS AND CNDN MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW A DEEPER LO FARTHER
TO THE N ALONG WITH A STRONGER SLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR. WL RELY ON
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX THRU THE NIGHT WITH ONLY
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS INCREASING OVER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. AT
KSAW...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SUFFICIENT BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS
ARRIVE TO RESULT IN FOG/MVFR VIS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO INCREASE TODAY...LINGERING DRY LOW-LEVELS MAKES PCPN FCST LESS
CERTAIN. BEST CHC OF DRY LOW-LEVELS GIVING WAY IS AT KCMX. SOME SHRA
ARE EXPECTED THERE IN THE AFTN. SPRINKLES MAY AFFECT KIWD. BETTER
CHC OF SHRA WILL OCCUR LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX AND IN THE EVENING AT
KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE...THOUGH KCMX MAY
FALL TO MVFR WITH SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SHRA EXPECTED THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THE RECENT HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER
CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM LOCAL LAKE
COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HI AS THE LO 40S...A
GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT...LO TEMPS WILL
FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING.
COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE
MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SN MELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING
ICE ON THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER
AIR ARRIVES THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 190828
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
428 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER MT/WY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 1031MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA. THE ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO ECENTRAL MANITOBA/ECENTRAL ONTARIO BY 00Z
SUN.

CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD MAY ALLOW SOME FOG
TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
THERE.

PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA SAT MORNING AS STRONG FORCING FROM
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA AND LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE NEEDED AS THE AIRMASS ABOVE THE NEAR SFC
INVERSION WILL BE QUITE DRY. THIS DRYNESS SHOULD HOLD THE PRECIP OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z OVER UPPER MI...WHICH ALLOWS FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE
IN...MAKING RAIN THE DOMINANT PTYPE ON SAT. DO HAVE SOME SNOW EARLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP
UNTIL LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. ANOTHER AREA OF
MIXED PRECIP IS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI WHERE THE RAIN WILL START
BEFORE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING...SOME SOME VERY MINOR FREEZING
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THERE EARLY. AS FAR AS PRECIP
AMOUNTS...HAVE NO QPF SCENTRAL AND E...WITH UP TO 0.40 INCHES OVER
THE KEWEENAW ON SAT. THE PRECIP MOVES SE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE DETAILS OF
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM IS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL
INTERACTION BTWN A STALLED FNT/RIBBON OF HIER MSTR JUST S OF UPR MI
AND A SHRTWV THAT IS FCST TO MOVE E ACRS SRN CANADA ON MON AND IF/
HOW MUCH RA WL FALL OVER UPR MI AND IMPACT AREA STREAMS/HYDRO.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS LOWERED BY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BTWN THESE FEATURES.

SUN...AS SHRTWV/SFC LO OVER NW ONTARIO ON SUN MRNG MOVE E CLOSER TO
JAMES BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY...A SHRTWV RDG AND MID LVL DRYING ARE
FCST TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND DEPARTING/WEAKENING
ATTENDANT COOL FNT AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON. ALTHOUGH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THIS MID LVL DRYING WL
BE...THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER CNDN MODEL SHOWS ENUF DRYING TO END THE
PCPN OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA BY 00Z. OPTED TO RETAIN FLAVOR OF
GOING FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING POPS OVER THE SE HALF DIMINISHING
THRU THE DAY...AND ENDING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE BY 00Z MON.
OTRW...WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE MELTING SN
PACK TO DSPT BY THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE WL SUPPORT ABV
NORMAL TEMPS...BUT LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HI PRES UNDER THE
SHRTWV RDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZES THAT WL BRING LOCAL
COOLING NEAR THE SHORES.

SUN NGT/MON...SUN NGT WL START DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL CLOSER TO LINGERING STNRY FNT/MSTR AXIS. BUT AS NEXT SHRTWV
MOVING ESEWD ACRS SCENTRAL CAN IN THE NW FLOW E OF BLDG RDG OVER WRN
CANADA APRCHS AND GENERATES SOME HGT FALLS OVER THE UPR LKS...SOME
OF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECWMF/UKMET...SHOW DEEP MSTR TO
THE S EXPANDING BACK TO THE N LATE SUN NGT AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL AND E. THE NCEP MODELS ARE MUCH DRIER AND INDICATE MAINLY
SCT RA SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INCOMING SHRTWV.
THE 00Z CNDN MODEL SHOWS THE PCPN EXPANDING BACK FARTHER TO THE N
BUT NOT UNTIL MON. WHILE THE BLDG RDG OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTS THE
FARTHER N SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP MODELS...THE RATHER LARGE
SEPARATION BTWN THE DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION AND ABSENCE OF A SGNFT
BACKING OF THE UPR LVL WINDS TO A MORE SW DIRECTION INDICATE THE
DRIER NCEP GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING INTERACTION/PHASING BTWN DISPARATE
DISTURBANCES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LO IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.
FORTUNATELY...EVEN THE WETTER SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE NON NCEP
MODELS POINTS TO HEAVIER RA OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA...WHERE
LESS SN REMAINS. OTRW...MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MRNG WITH LGT WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR DRIER MID LVLS OVER
MELTING SN.

MON NGT...INCRSG NNW FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 25-30 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHRTWV THRU THE GREAT LKS IS FCST TO DROP
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -6 TO -7C BY 12Z TUE. WHILE THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT COLD ENUF FOR LK EFFECT SN...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW ENUF
LLVL MSTR TO JUSTIFY CHC POPS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR...
EXPECT THE RA SHOWERS TO MIX WITH OR CHG TO SN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIER TERRAIN OF THE W.

TUE INTO WED...CNDN SFC HI PRES RDG UNDER UPR RDG TRAILING DEPARTING
SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER WX TO THE CWA.

EXTENDED...NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SGNFT DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON THE HANDLING OF NEXT LO PRES THAT IS
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS LATER ON WED INTO FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES A COLDER SCENARIO WITH THE SFC LO PRES TRACKING TO THE S
OF UPR MI AND BLDG HI PRES JUST N OF LK WINNIPEG. THIS FCST WOULD
RESULT IN SOME MIXED PCPN AT THE ONSET AND LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
00Z GFS AND CNDN MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW A DEEPER LO FARTHER
TO THE N ALONG WITH A STRONGER SLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR. WL RELY ON
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX THRU THE NIGHT WITH ONLY
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS INCREASING OVER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. AT
KSAW...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SUFFICIENT BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS
ARRIVE TO RESULT IN FOG/MVFR VIS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO INCREASE TODAY...LINGERING DRY LOW-LEVELS MAKES PCPN FCST LESS
CERTAIN. BEST CHC OF DRY LOW-LEVELS GIVING WAY IS AT KCMX. SOME SHRA
ARE EXPECTED THERE IN THE AFTN. SPRINKLES MAY AFFECT KIWD. BETTER
CHC OF SHRA WILL OCCUR LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX AND IN THE EVENING AT
KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE...THOUGH KCMX MAY
FALL TO MVFR WITH SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SHRA EXPECTED THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THE RECENT HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER
CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM LOCAL LAKE
COOLING ON SUN AND MON/...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR.
EXCEPT FOR SAT NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR
FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. COOLER AIR WILL
RETURN MON NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE MELT DOWN.
HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.3 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE
RECENT SNOW STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING
ICE ON THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER
AIR ARRIVES SAT THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...MCD







000
FXUS63 KDTX 190732
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
332 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FIRST THINGS FIRST...FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM JACKSON TO DETROIT AND
AND UP THROUGH MOUNT CLEMENS. THIS BAND IS ON THE EDGE OF THE 925MB
THETA E BOUNDARY THAT SANK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING AND
STALLED OVER THAT AREA. CIGS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN INCREASING AS DRY AIR
TAKES ITS TOLL ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY
FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE THUMB AS ONSHORE FLOW
ADVECTS MOIST AIR BELOW A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. OBS HAVE NOT BEEN
TOO FAVORABLE THUS FAR KEEPING A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 2-5
DEGREES FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE ARE SOME DIPPING TO AROUND A
DEGREE. WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY PUT AN END TO ANY FOG THAT
DOES TRY TO FORM.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MORE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE
HURON/ERIE SHORELINE AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL PASS OVER MI /AROUND 00Z SUNDAY/. SE MI WILL FALL ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LAKE
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOW 40S...THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT
TYPICAL SFC HEATING FROM THE MID APRIL SUN EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES.
QUESTION IS HOW FAR INLAND DOES THIS MARINE INFLUENCE MAKE IT?
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AREA WEST OF I-75 WILL GET A BIT MORE
INFLUENCE FORM THE SUN ALLOWING THEM TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S.
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL COMBAT THE
EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG POLAR JET STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...REACHING JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH NO
SOUTHERN STREAM COMPANION TO THIS WAVE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HANG UP JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES TO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL ANYWAY.

A SECOND POLAR SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
AND PHASE TO SOME DEGREE WITH A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM...AS PORTRAYED BY THE 00Z MODEL SUITE...HAS SLOWED
SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO
A LARGE PORTION OF MONDAY AND WILL UP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
70S AS NAM12/ECMWF/GFS ARE ALL RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE
POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z. WILL ALSO HAVE TO BACK OFF ON THE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOW WARRANTED AS LI/S DROP TO 0C OR BELOW AND SBCAPES
ARE FORECAST NEARING 500 J/KG...AT LEAST BY THE NAM12.

WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING AS THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES...AND THE RESULTANT DEEPER UPPER TROUGH HANGING BACK
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 50S ON AVERAGE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S. A SECOND WELL
PHASED STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST
AND WOBBLE INTO THE AREA AS IT OCCLUDES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO
AT LEAST PARTS OF FRIDAY. NOTABLY COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WAS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS 24 HOURS AGO AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN REASONABLY QUIET INTO TONIGHT AS LIGHT EAST
FLOW...AVERAGING 10 KNOTS OR SO...CONTINUES TO FILTER OFF OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL THEN PASS NEAR THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...DROPPING
A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THIS AREA UNTIL THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DRAWS IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTH WINDS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS
IN MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME.  SMALL WINDOW FOR A
BRIEF MVFR FOG/LOW STRATUS GIVEN THE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE LIMITED PROBABILITY AND LOW CONFIDENCE WILL
PRECLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME /NE TO E/ ON SATURDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190721
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
COOLER WEATHER IN THE 50S RETURNS TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
MOVING ENE. THAT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT AS IT DRAGS A
COLD FRONT EAST WARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AND THOSE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. WE/LL
STILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO PUSH
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY
FIELD NOTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED LI/S DON/T FALL
BELOW 0C...THERE IS SOME MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT LATER MODEL RUNS.

GIVEN THE INCREASE IN TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS PLANTS AND TREES HAVE NOT
GREENED UP YET. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH PAST
15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION TO MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT...THE ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE SCATTERED.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SENDING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM STAYS WITH SOUTHWEST LOWER MI RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH MODELS
TRENDING FASTER WITH THE FRONT...LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO I DID BUMP UP POPS THEN.  VERY LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS...SO I WILL KEEP IT AT SHOWERS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF DECENT LIFT
AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL FOR THE MOST PART STAY
CLEAR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING










000
FXUS63 KAPX 190700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A
STATIONARY FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WET WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME MILDER FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING OFF BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

CURRENTLY, WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND THE
FORECAST AREA, THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER 95% OF THE REGION.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN A THIN SLIVER ALONG THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER, WHICH HAS BEGUN TO FORM FOG, AS WAS THOUGHT. IN FACT, THE
FOG IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RIVER. WILL
WATCH THIS, BUT WITH THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BY THE INVERSION ON THE
00Z SOUNDING, WILL EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC CONTINUES TO RADIATE EARLY
THIS MORNING, THAT MORE PATCHY FOG WILL FORM, IN E UPPER, AND INTO N
LOWER.

TODAY...PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING, BUT AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST, THE RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WARM AND MIX A
BIT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE EVIDENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE
AS THEY WILL BE UNDER THE RETURN FLOW LONGER. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE THE WHAT DO WE GET TO TEMPERATURE-WISE FOR THE DAY? HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO NW LOWER AND E UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
FILTER SOME OF THE SUNSHINE, AND NOT ALLOW AS MUCH MIXING WAS COULD
HAVE BEEN DONE, BUT IT SHOULD FEEL RATHER MILD AGAIN IN NW LOWER.
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH
OVER 70%) MOVING OVER A VERY DRY 850 MB LEVEL (RH<25% BY 00Z). SO
HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z, THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO MOISTEN AS THE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE 500 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT (WHICH ARE
NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO EACH OTHER) TIGHTEN UP. SO WILL EXPECT THAT
THE RAIN WILL START BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IN E UPPER AND AFTER 03Z IN
NW LOWER, AND AFTER 06Z IN NE LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD BUT RATHER WET AS STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SHOP
RIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH RRQ JET DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CWA. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND TEMP PROFILES STILL SHOW PRECIP
WILL BE ALL RAIN...EVEN ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN. SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP WELL WEST OF MICHIGAN ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND WILL
SLIDE THRU NRN MICHIGAN BY MONDAY EVENING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION. BY THE TIME SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA...PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HAVE ENDED AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT SLIDE EAST OF MICHIGAN WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW. DAYTIME TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER
MILD...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE
MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
NRN LWR MICHIGAN. CAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK
INTO THE 30S.

TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THRU
THE COLUMN BUILD INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU
WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR WRN CWA AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND
SLOWLY CHURNS ITS WAY THRU NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK. SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS THE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND LIFT (AND THUS PRECIP)
WILL ARRIVE IN A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT (AT LEAST). PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN AHEAD
OF THE LOW PER TEMP PROFILES...WITH SOME SNOW BEGINNING TO MIX IN
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NW CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST OF OUR
CWA AND LOW LEVEL CAA COMMENCES. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WARM
THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON TUESDAY WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. CAA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT NEARING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF FOG POTENTIAL AT PLN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT AT THIS SITE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH CONTINUED
CLEARING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS DECOUPLING
LLEVEL WINDS...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MODERATE...BUT THE SETUP REMAINS QUITE GOOD...SO
SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO REMOVE CURRENT 2SM BR MENTION.  OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE ANY
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS:  LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST 10G15KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE 5-10KTS SATURDAY EVENING.

LLWS: 30-40KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY AFTER 02Z SUNDAY FOR
MBL/TVC/PLN WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER LIKELY TO ALLOW
FOR LLWS DEVELOPMENT.  ANY POTENTIAL AT APN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER
06Z.

THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREA HYDROGRAPHS CONTINUE ON THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS RESIDUAL
RUNOFF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE BASINS. THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT QUESTIONS ARISE
WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY (CURRENT RIVER
FORECASTS ONLY CONTAIN 24H QPF...WHICH WOULD BE THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY). MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN IS A PARTICULAR CONCERN
GIVEN ITS RATHER DRAWN OUT RECESSION. CONTINGENCY QPF FORECASTS
WOULD SUGGEST A RENEWED RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A MODEST AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL (AT LEAST STAYING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE). SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS. POTENTIAL RISES ON THE PINE RIVER (EASTERN UPPER) AND
RIFLE RIVERS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RENEWED FLOOD CONCERNS AT
THIS POINT.

&&


.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...ARNOTT
HYDROLOGY...JPB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 190511
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
111 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL POKE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN
HEAD OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PERHAPS LASTING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME MILDER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE COOLING OFF YET AGAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. LIGHT FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT ANJ,
SO WILL EXPECT THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THAT FOG WILL
SPREAD AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

CLOUD COVER TRAPPED BENEATH STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
CONTINUES TO IMPACT AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF M-32 THROUGH EASTERN
UPPER. HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...NOTING TRENDS UP NEAR WHITEFISH POINT DO INDICATE AN
EVENTUAL THINNING/SCATTERING OUT OF THIS CLOUDINESS. NO BIG IMPACT
ON TEMPS YET...BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WILL NEED SHORT-
TERM UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR. NO REASON TO BELIEVE
YET...HOWEVER...THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEED ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...RATHER QUIET WEATHER THOUGH STILL ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF
THINGS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

OVERVIEW: A COOL ONE FOR SURE TODAY...WITH OVERHEAD THERMAL TROUGHING
TIED TO DEEPER PASSING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO YIELD...DESPITE TIME OF YEAR...AND HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A SMIDGE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. HEIGHTS
STEADILY ON THE REBOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND FAR WESTERN LAKES...
PART OF PROGRESSIVE AND RATHER ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN. SURFACE FEATURES DOMINATED BY EXTENSIVE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA...AND ONE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS.
POTENTIALLY FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE.

DETAILS: OVERHEAD TROUGHING GIVES WAY TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING BY EARLY
MORNING...WITH ITS SURFACE LIKENESS BUILDING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE JUST A FEW HOURS SOONER. DRY WEATHER NO DOUBT PREVAILS...WITH
DEEP DRY LAYER UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. UPSTREAM HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THINNING ON ITS LEADING EDGE SUGGESTS IT MAY STRUGGLE TO DO SO.
DON`T THINK WE WILL GET QUITE AS COLD AS UPSTREAM AREAS OBSERVED
LAST NIGHT (WIDESPREAD TEENS)...BUT TRIFECTA OF LIGHT WINDS/CLEARING
SKIES/DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S
(WITH ISOLATED TEENS EASILY DOABLE IN ICE BOX LOCATIONS OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER). ABOVE COOLING AND LESS THAN ANTICIPATED MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON (ELEVATED DEW POINTS) SUPPORTS INHERITED PATCHY FOG
WORDING LATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...DRY SATURDAY/POTENTIALLY SOGGY EASTERN SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUNDAY/MONDAY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH AN ACTIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN SUPPLYING THE
ENERGY ACROSS THE CONUS.  A PAIR OF SPLIT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
CROSSING THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...LEAD WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  ANOTHER WAVE WAS HEADING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH A
SUBTROPICAL BRANCH WAVE TRACKING TOWARD NORTHWEST MEXICO.  THIS
PATTERN OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS WITHIN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AND AN
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POTENTIALLY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFYING OF THE FLOW PATTERN AS
NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE
UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.  GREAT BASIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES MICHIGAN
SUNDAY.  REINFORCING PACIFIC ORIGIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
INTERACT WITH THIS LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SPIN UP A SURFACE
LOW IN THE VICINITY IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): A SOGGY EASTER SUNDAY AND
CONCERNS ABOUT WHAT IMPACT THAT WILL HAVE ON ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES AS WELL...BETWEEN WHAT I THINK MAY
HAPPEN VERSUS WHAT GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEPICT WITH MUCH
VARIANCE.

NEAR TERM (SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BE IN PLACE TO START SATURDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW OVER THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A
COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA.  LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FEEDING A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONTAL SURFACE.  SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE ONGOING TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE FEED.
INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AS RIDGING GIVES WAY...BUT DRY LOW LAYERS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY.  MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED NORTH DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE SUN SOUTH.  LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING IN A NARROW AXIS OF
DECENT MOISTURE (0.75-1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER)...WITH FORCING
LIKELY AIDED BY SOME ENTRANCE REGION JET FORCING.  SO RAIN THREAT TO
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER PROBABLY STAYING DRY UNTIL EASTER MORNING.
POTENTIAL RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT OF 0.50+ INCH ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER.

LOW LEVEL MOIST INFLOW WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...TURNING BETTER RAIN THREAT SOUTH OF THE STRAITS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  OVERALL FORCING BY THEN WILL BE WEAKENING
WITH MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...SO QPF POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED AS INTENSITY AND/OR COVERAGE WANES.
WILL TRY TO END PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON
(THOUGH LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER)...AND POSSIBLE THAT AREAS NEAR
SAGINAW BAY MAY STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
BE RATHER INTERESTING...GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY WARM ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.  CAN SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES UP TOWARD THE M-55 CORRIDOR...BUT 60S DEPICTED IN SOME
GUIDANCE CREEPING TOWARD M-72/M-32 SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN EXPECTED
WEATHER SO HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER THOSE HIGHS TO SOME DEGREE (UPPER
40S TIP OF THE MITT TO UPPER 50S SOUTH OF M-72).  RAIN LIKELY AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...POSSIBLY WITH A BETTER DEFINED
"SURGE" OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST.

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY):  NEXT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER LAKES REGION TO START NEXT
WEEK...WITH RESULTANT FORECAST CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY SENDING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO MICHIGAN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.  RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH A DRYING/COOLING TREND FOR TUESDAY/
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WATCHING PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WITH A MORE
ROBUST BUCKLING THE UPPER FLOW INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.  SHARP
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE...WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT NEARING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF FOG POTENTIAL AT PLN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT AT THIS SITE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH CONTINUED
CLEARING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS DECOUPLING
LLEVEL WINDS...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MODERATE...BUT THE SETUP REMAINS QUITE GOOD...SO
SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO REMOVE CURRENT 2SM BR MENTION.  OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE ANY
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS:  LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST 10G15KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE 5-10KTS SATURDAY EVENING.

LLWS: 30-40KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY AFTER 02Z SUNDAY FOR
MBL/TVC/PLN WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER LIKELY TO ALLOW
FOR LLWS DEVELOPMENT.  ANY POTENTIAL AT APN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER
06Z.

THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREA HYDROGRAPHS CONTINUE ON THEIR DOWNWARD TREND THIS AFTERNOON AS
RESIDUAL RUNOFF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE BASINS.  THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT QUESTIONS
ARISE WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SUNDAY (CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS
ONLY CONTAIN 24H QPF...WHICH WOULD BE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY).
MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN IS A PARTICULAR CONCERN GIVEN ITS RATHER
DRAWN OUT RECESSION.  CONTINGENCY QPF FORECASTS WOULD SUGGEST A
RENEWED RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A MODEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL (AT
LEAST STAYING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE).  SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.
POTENTIAL RISES ON THE PINE RIVER (EASTERN UPPER) AND RIFLE RIVERS
NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RENEWED FLOOD CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...ARNOTT
HYDROLOGY...JPB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 190418
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1218 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER MT/WY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 1031MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA. THE ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO ECENTRAL MANITOBA/ECENTRAL ONTARIO BY 00Z
SUN.

CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD MAY ALLOW SOME FOG
TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
THERE.

PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA SAT MORNING AS STRONG FORCING FROM
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA AND LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE NEEDED AS THE AIRMASS ABOVE THE NEAR SFC
INVERSION WILL BE QUITE DRY. THIS DRYNESS SHOULD HOLD THE PRECIP OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z OVER UPPER MI...WHICH ALLOWS FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE
IN...MAKING RAIN THE DOMINANT PTYPE ON SAT. DO HAVE SOME SNOW EARLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP
UNTIL LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. ANOTHER AREA OF
MIXED PRECIP IS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI WHERE THE RAIN WILL START
BEFORE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING...SOME SOME VERY MINOR FREEZING
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THERE EARLY. AS FAR AS PRECIP
AMOUNTS...HAVE NO QPF SCENTRAL AND E...WITH UP TO 0.40 INCHES OVER
THE KEWEENAW ON SAT. THE PRECIP MOVES SE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE DETAILS OF
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...MAIN CONCERN OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS MODERATE RAINFALL AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN...

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MAINLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL BRING TOTAL QPF AROUND 0.25-0.5 INCHES
OF RAIN TO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI...AND 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES OF RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER MI THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH SEEING NEAR 60. THIS WILL LEAD TO HYDROLOGY
CONCERNS...WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXISTS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300MB JET IS POSITIONED FAVORABLY OVER UPPER
MI...AND A 500MB TROUGH BRINGS MODEST 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MOISTURE IS ADEQUATE AS
WELL. AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW INFILTRATES
THE AREA...BRINGING PWATS UP TO NEAR 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BY THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD/SATURDAY NIGHT/ BEST MOISTURE IS
SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN HANGING UP THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON....BUT THEY DIFFER IN RESPECT TO
HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. THE GEM/ECMWF KEEP THE EASTERN
AND FAR SOUTHERN CWA UNDER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND THE GFS/NAM
MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF ALL BUT THE VERY FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF UPPER MI. DIFFERENCES ARE LARGELY WITH THE STRENGTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE/INCOMING DRY AIR BEHIND THE LOW...WHICH FORCES THE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS/QPF CONSERVATIVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND STARTED A CLOUD
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...850MB TEMPS RISE UP TO 4 TO 8C...LEADING TO HIGHS ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE 40S AND 50S SATURDAY...AND THE 50S AND LOW 60S
SUNDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
WHERE CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT.

MODELS ALSO STRUGGLED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM...MOVING ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT STILL STUCK IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WARM AIR AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE APPROACHING
LOW COULD PUSH THE PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY.
THE GEM/ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THIS...HOWEVER THE NAM/GFS
KEEP THE FRONT SOUTH. KEPT PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST FOR
NOW...AND INCREASED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SFC TROUGH SWING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH THIS. KEPT
CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK TO THE
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AND
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
GFS GENERATES EXCESSIVE QPF OVER UPPER MI ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...BUT THE ECWMF DOES NOT.
THE GFS SEEMS TO WRAP UP THE SYSTEM MORE THAN THE ECMWF...AND DIGS
THE TROUGH DEEPER. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS 850MB TEMPS OF 10C BY 00Z
SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPS DO NOT EVEN REACH ABOVE 0C.
FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH CONSENSUS GRIDS DUE TO THESE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX THRU THE NIGHT WITH ONLY
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS INCREASING OVER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. AT
KSAW...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SUFFICIENT BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS
ARRIVE TO RESULT IN FOG/MVFR VIS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO INCREASE TODAY...LINGERING DRY LOW-LEVELS MAKES PCPN FCST LESS
CERTAIN. BEST CHC OF DRY LOW-LEVELS GIVING WAY IS AT KCMX. SOME SHRA
ARE EXPECTED THERE IN THE AFTN. SPRINKLES MAY AFFECT KIWD. BETTER
CHC OF SHRA WILL OCCUR LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX AND IN THE EVENING AT
KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE...THOUGH KCMX MAY
FALL TO MVFR WITH SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SHRA EXPECTED THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THE RECENT HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER
CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM LOCAL LAKE
COOLING ON SUN AND MON/...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR.
EXCEPT FOR SAT NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR
FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. COOLER AIR WILL
RETURN MON NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE MELT DOWN.
HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.3 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE
RECENT SNOW STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING
ICE ON THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER
AIR ARRIVES SAT THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...MCD








000
FXUS63 KDTX 190359
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1159 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS
IN MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME.  SMALL WINDOW FOR A
BRIEF MVFR FOG/LOW STRATUS GIVEN THE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE LIMITED PROBABILITY AND LOW CONFIDENCE WILL
PRECLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME /NE TO E/ ON SATURDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HEIGHTS
WILL RISE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NOSES
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HIGH HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO ASSERT ITSELF
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AS OF YET...HOWEVER. AN ELEVATED THETA E
BOUNDARY PASSED SLOWLY THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND DECENT MIXING HAS OCCURRED...CAUSING TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF I75. TO
THE EAST...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED LAKE HURON RELEASE TO
OCCUR...LIMITING TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S EAST OF ROUGHLY M53. THE
LAKE INDUCED BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON 88D REFLECTIVITY...BISECTING
WAYNE COUNTY AS OF 1930Z. ITS PROGRESS SHOULD SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A GENEROUS CU-UP HAS OCCURRED IN THE
WAKE OF THE THETA-E BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING AS DIURNAL PROCESSES CEASE.

CLEARING SKIES AND SOME DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PREVENT DECOUPLING LONGER IN THE SOUTH AND ALLOW LOWS TO STAY IN THE
MID-30S. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT IN THE THUMB WITH CONTINUED MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON. MOIST SOIL FROM THIS MORNING/S RAINFALL MAY HELP IN THIS
PROCESS...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A PATCHY
MENTION IN THE THUMB.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONFINES MIXING HEIGHTS TO
NEAR/BELOW 4500 FEET AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COLD WATERS
OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH GOOD INSOLATION EXPECTED...HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER WAVE NOW NEAR THE MONTANA/ALBERTA BORDER BEGINS TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RIDE OVER IT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING
FROM A JET STREAK BECOMES POSITIONED OVERHEAD. IT LOOKS AS IF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY BRUSHING THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
LIFT UP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY THAT WILL BREAK OFF THE
UPPER LOW NOW PUSHING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS THE LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA...IT WILL PULL MOISTURE UP INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...BEFORE DRAWING THE FRONT HOLDING OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ALL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAIN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
MORE CONSISTENT CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/EURO/GEM INSTEAD OF THE FASTER
NAM WHICH IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE WAY IT HANDLES BOTH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AHEAD OF BOTH
THESE SYSTEMS...FIRST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING ON SUNDAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SECOND LOW APPROACHES. HIGH LOOK TO PUSH INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BOTH AFTERNOONS.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY BRINGING IN A
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL
THEN EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER. TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN PASS NEAR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...DROPPING A COLD
FRONT DOWN INTO LAKE HURON. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THIS AREA UNTIL ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAWS IT SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTH WINDS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190349
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60
SATURDAY AND NEAR 70 ON EASTER SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY WILL BE RATHER MILD AS WELL... WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREAWIDE. HOWEVER COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS OF 30 DEGREES OR MORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TYPICALLY IN THIS REGIME WE SEE CAN SEE LOWS 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE AND HIGHS 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS. THIS MAY DRIVE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS... POSSIBLY CREATING A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE RISK.

FOR THE MOST PART THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS GOOD NEWS AS SOME FLOODING STILL CONTINUES ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER.  IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR ALONG THE U.S. 10 CORRIDOR...
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WE CONTINUE TO TO WATCH TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM. THE
FIRST SYSTEM IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...WHILE THE OTHER
IS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE HAVE NOT REALLY MADE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FIRST SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW SIDING WITH THE COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE
SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO WE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A
BIT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME DRY AND WARM WEATHER EARLY ON
MON...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SE YOU GO. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
START OUT THE DAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SRN STREAM WAVE AND NRN
STREAM WAVE BOTH MOVE INTO THE AREA. IT WILL BE AT THIS TIME THAT
RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY TUE
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL THEN
FILTER INTO THE AREA.

WE WILL SEE A DRY AND COOL PERIOD THEN FOR LATER TUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. WE WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL USHER IN COOL AIR WITH THE
NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS AIR WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
COLD AS THIS PAST TUE...AS HIGH SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 50S.

YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THAT WE MAY BE HEADED FOR ANOTHER MAJOR WARM
UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WARM UP HAS BEEN
REDUCED DRASTICALLY...AS WE NOW BELIEVE IT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE
WET. WE ARE FOLLOWING THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS MINUS THE GFS
SUITE WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKER AND THE WARM AIR WILL NOT
MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH A
STRONGER UPPER LOW. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE EXHIBITING ITS COMMON BIAS
OF HAVING TOO STRONG OF AN UPPER LOW DUE TO ABNORMALLY STRONG SHORT
WAVES LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTION. THE OTHER MODELS AND EURO ENSEMBLE
FAVOR A WEAKER LOW AND FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD END UP COOLER. WE
HAVE NOT ENTIRELY BOUGHT INTO THIS YET...BUT HAVE TRENDED THE FCST
COOLER AND WETTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL FOR THE MOST PART STAY CLEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS WITH WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH. FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY SINCE GREEN UP HAS NOT
YET OCCURRED AND THE FINE FUELS ON THE GROUND ARE DRY EVEN THOUGH
SOILS ARE MOIST FROM RECENT RAINS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...HOVING







000
FXUS63 KMQT 182346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER MT/WY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 1031MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA. THE ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO ECENTRAL MANITOBA/ECENTRAL ONTARIO BY 00Z
SUN.

CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD MAY ALLOW SOME FOG
TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
THERE.

PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA SAT MORNING AS STRONG FORCING FROM
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA AND LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE NEEDED AS THE AIRMASS ABOVE THE NEAR SFC
INVERSION WILL BE QUITE DRY. THIS DRYNESS SHOULD HOLD THE PRECIP OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z OVER UPPER MI...WHICH ALLOWS FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE
IN...MAKING RAIN THE DOMINANT PTYPE ON SAT. DO HAVE SOME SNOW EARLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP
UNTIL LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. ANOTHER AREA OF
MIXED PRECIP IS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI WHERE THE RAIN WILL START
BEFORE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING...SOME SOME VERY MINOR FREEZING
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THERE EARLY. AS FAR AS PRECIP
AMOUNTS...HAVE NO QPF SCENTRAL AND E...WITH UP TO 0.40 INCHES OVER
THE KEWEENAW ON SAT. THE PRECIP MOVES SE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE DETAILS OF
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...MAIN CONCERN OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS MODERATE RAINFALL AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN...

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MAINLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL BRING TOTAL QPF AROUND 0.25-0.5 INCHES
OF RAIN TO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI...AND 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES OF RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER MI THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH SEEING NEAR 60. THIS WILL LEAD TO HYDROLOGY
CONCERNS...WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXISTS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300MB JET IS POSITIONED FAVORABLY OVER UPPER
MI...AND A 500MB TROUGH BRINGS MODEST 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MOISTURE IS ADEQUATE AS
WELL. AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW INFILTRATES
THE AREA...BRINGING PWATS UP TO NEAR 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BY THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD/SATURDAY NIGHT/ BEST MOISTURE IS
SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.


MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN HANGING UP THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON....BUT THEY DIFFER IN RESPECT TO
HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. THE GEM/ECMWF KEEP THE EASTERN
AND FAR SOUTHERN CWA UNDER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND THE
GFS/NAM MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF ALL BUT THE VERY FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. DIFFERENCES ARE LARGELY WITH THE STRENGTH OF
HIGH PRESSURE/INCOMING DRY AIR BEHIND THE LOW...WHICH FORCES THE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.  FOR NOW...KEPT POPS/QPF CONSERVATIVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND STARTED A CLOUD
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...850MB TEMPS RISE UP TO 4 TO 8C...LEADING TO HIGHS ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE 40S AND 50S SATURDAY...AND THE 50S AND LOW 60S
SUNDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
WHERE CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT.

MODELS ALSO STRUGGLED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM...MOVING ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT STILL STUCK IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WARM AIR AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE APPROACHING
LOW COULD PUSH THE PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY.
THE GEM/ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THIS...HOWEVER THE NAM/GFS
KEEP THE FRONT SOUTH. KEPT PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST FOR
NOW...AND INCREASED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SFC TROUGH SWING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH THIS. KEPT
CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK TO THE
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AND
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
GFS GENERATES EXCESSIVE QPF OVER UPPER MI ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...BUT THE ECWMF DOES NOT.
THE GFS SEEMS TO WRAP UP THE SYSTEM MORE THAN THE ECMWF...AND DIGS
THE TROUGH DEEPER. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS 850MB TEMPS OF 10C BY 00Z
SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPS DO NOT EVEN REACH ABOVE 0C.
FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH CONSENSUS GRIDS DUE TO THESE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS INCREASING OVER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. AT KSAW...
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SUFFICIENT BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE TO
RESULT IN SOME FOG/MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO INCREASE SAT...LINGERING DRY LOW-LEVELS MAKES PCPN FCST
LESS CERTAIN. BEST CHC OF DRY LOW-LEVELS GIVING WAY IS AT KCMX. SHRA
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE IN THE AFTN. SHRA
MAY ALSO AFFECT KIWD AT TIMES. AT KSAW...IT APPEARS BEST CHC OF SHRA
WILL OCCUR JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THE RECENT HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER
CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM LOCAL LAKE
COOLING ON SUN AND MON/...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR.
EXCEPT FOR SAT NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR
FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. COOLER AIR WILL
RETURN MON NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE MELT DOWN.
HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.3 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE
RECENT SNOW STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING
ICE ON THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER
AIR ARRIVES SAT THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...MCD







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