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000
FXUS63 KDTX 031401
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1001 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CAA WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING...STRONG LL LAPSE
RATES... AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL REACH SE MI THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. THOUGH MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...PWATS
JUST UNDER AN INCH...THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST HIRES MODELS ALL CONCUR AND ADVERTISE SPOTTY COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 558 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACTING UPON RESIDUAL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. TRANSIENT NATURE IN THE COVERAGE AND SHALLOW
DEPTH FORECASTED IN MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A RAPID LIFTING TREND WITH
GROWTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER. CLOUDS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO LIFT TODAY
BEFORE MIXING OUT BY THIS EVENING. TIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 406 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY QUICKLY AMPLIFIES OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA. NWP AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FOR
TODAY UNDERPINNING WHAT WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. RATHER OVERALL DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE GOVERNED BY ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE. AN EXCEPTION FOR A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER...NORTHERN LAKE HURON...AND DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN THUMB WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWERS WILL EXIST. A STEEP
LAPSE RATE 800-700MB LAYER IS FORECASTED TO STREAM INTO THESE AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEST DEFORMATION AND
FGEN FORCING WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE HIGH BASED INSTABILITY
LIMITING THE OVERALL POTENTIAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME SNEAKY LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID 80 DEGREE READINGS FOR THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE AREAS/HEAT
ISLAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN.

LONG TERM...

VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PINWHEELING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ONE SUCH UPPER WAVE DESCENDING FROM WESTERN
HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TIGHTENING UP THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR (SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S) IN PLACE...LI`S
LOOK TO REMAIN POSITIVE. HOWEVER...GOOD 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL CU UP DURING THE DAY WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG
.AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...WHERE ADDED
MOISTURE BOOST FROM SAGINAW BAY MAY COME INTO PLAY. 850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH TO LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CONTINUED MODEST COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN PROMOTES LESS DAYTIME
MIXING...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHTS
TRANSLATING TO MINS IN THE 50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AS 00Z EURO TRACKS THE 500
MB TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THURSDAY...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER
OR JUST NORTH....DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.

MARINE...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...AND
LOOKING AT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A
SECONDARY FRONT AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
HOWEVER...SLOWLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FOR THURSDAY WILL THEN PROVIDE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......DRK
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031401
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1001 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CAA WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING...STRONG LL LAPSE
RATES... AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL REACH SE MI THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. THOUGH MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...PWATS
JUST UNDER AN INCH...THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST HIRES MODELS ALL CONCUR AND ADVERTISE SPOTTY COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 558 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACTING UPON RESIDUAL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. TRANSIENT NATURE IN THE COVERAGE AND SHALLOW
DEPTH FORECASTED IN MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A RAPID LIFTING TREND WITH
GROWTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER. CLOUDS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO LIFT TODAY
BEFORE MIXING OUT BY THIS EVENING. TIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 406 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY QUICKLY AMPLIFIES OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA. NWP AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FOR
TODAY UNDERPINNING WHAT WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. RATHER OVERALL DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE GOVERNED BY ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE. AN EXCEPTION FOR A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER...NORTHERN LAKE HURON...AND DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN THUMB WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWERS WILL EXIST. A STEEP
LAPSE RATE 800-700MB LAYER IS FORECASTED TO STREAM INTO THESE AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEST DEFORMATION AND
FGEN FORCING WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE HIGH BASED INSTABILITY
LIMITING THE OVERALL POTENTIAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME SNEAKY LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID 80 DEGREE READINGS FOR THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE AREAS/HEAT
ISLAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN.

LONG TERM...

VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PINWHEELING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ONE SUCH UPPER WAVE DESCENDING FROM WESTERN
HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TIGHTENING UP THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR (SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S) IN PLACE...LI`S
LOOK TO REMAIN POSITIVE. HOWEVER...GOOD 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL CU UP DURING THE DAY WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG
.AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...WHERE ADDED
MOISTURE BOOST FROM SAGINAW BAY MAY COME INTO PLAY. 850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH TO LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CONTINUED MODEST COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN PROMOTES LESS DAYTIME
MIXING...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHTS
TRANSLATING TO MINS IN THE 50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AS 00Z EURO TRACKS THE 500
MB TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THURSDAY...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER
OR JUST NORTH....DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.

MARINE...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...AND
LOOKING AT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A
SECONDARY FRONT AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
HOWEVER...SLOWLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FOR THURSDAY WILL THEN PROVIDE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......DRK
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031401
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1001 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CAA WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING...STRONG LL LAPSE
RATES... AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL REACH SE MI THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. THOUGH MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...PWATS
JUST UNDER AN INCH...THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST HIRES MODELS ALL CONCUR AND ADVERTISE SPOTTY COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 558 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACTING UPON RESIDUAL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. TRANSIENT NATURE IN THE COVERAGE AND SHALLOW
DEPTH FORECASTED IN MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A RAPID LIFTING TREND WITH
GROWTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER. CLOUDS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO LIFT TODAY
BEFORE MIXING OUT BY THIS EVENING. TIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 406 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY QUICKLY AMPLIFIES OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA. NWP AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FOR
TODAY UNDERPINNING WHAT WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. RATHER OVERALL DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE GOVERNED BY ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE. AN EXCEPTION FOR A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER...NORTHERN LAKE HURON...AND DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN THUMB WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWERS WILL EXIST. A STEEP
LAPSE RATE 800-700MB LAYER IS FORECASTED TO STREAM INTO THESE AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEST DEFORMATION AND
FGEN FORCING WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE HIGH BASED INSTABILITY
LIMITING THE OVERALL POTENTIAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME SNEAKY LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID 80 DEGREE READINGS FOR THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE AREAS/HEAT
ISLAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN.

LONG TERM...

VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PINWHEELING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ONE SUCH UPPER WAVE DESCENDING FROM WESTERN
HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TIGHTENING UP THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR (SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S) IN PLACE...LI`S
LOOK TO REMAIN POSITIVE. HOWEVER...GOOD 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL CU UP DURING THE DAY WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG
.AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...WHERE ADDED
MOISTURE BOOST FROM SAGINAW BAY MAY COME INTO PLAY. 850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH TO LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CONTINUED MODEST COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN PROMOTES LESS DAYTIME
MIXING...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHTS
TRANSLATING TO MINS IN THE 50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AS 00Z EURO TRACKS THE 500
MB TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THURSDAY...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER
OR JUST NORTH....DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.

MARINE...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...AND
LOOKING AT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A
SECONDARY FRONT AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
HOWEVER...SLOWLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FOR THURSDAY WILL THEN PROVIDE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......DRK
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031401
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1001 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CAA WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING...STRONG LL LAPSE
RATES... AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL REACH SE MI THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. THOUGH MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...PWATS
JUST UNDER AN INCH...THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST HIRES MODELS ALL CONCUR AND ADVERTISE SPOTTY COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 558 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACTING UPON RESIDUAL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. TRANSIENT NATURE IN THE COVERAGE AND SHALLOW
DEPTH FORECASTED IN MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A RAPID LIFTING TREND WITH
GROWTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER. CLOUDS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO LIFT TODAY
BEFORE MIXING OUT BY THIS EVENING. TIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 406 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY QUICKLY AMPLIFIES OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA. NWP AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FOR
TODAY UNDERPINNING WHAT WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. RATHER OVERALL DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE GOVERNED BY ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE. AN EXCEPTION FOR A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER...NORTHERN LAKE HURON...AND DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN THUMB WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWERS WILL EXIST. A STEEP
LAPSE RATE 800-700MB LAYER IS FORECASTED TO STREAM INTO THESE AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEST DEFORMATION AND
FGEN FORCING WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE HIGH BASED INSTABILITY
LIMITING THE OVERALL POTENTIAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME SNEAKY LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID 80 DEGREE READINGS FOR THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE AREAS/HEAT
ISLAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN.

LONG TERM...

VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PINWHEELING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ONE SUCH UPPER WAVE DESCENDING FROM WESTERN
HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TIGHTENING UP THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR (SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S) IN PLACE...LI`S
LOOK TO REMAIN POSITIVE. HOWEVER...GOOD 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL CU UP DURING THE DAY WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG
.AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...WHERE ADDED
MOISTURE BOOST FROM SAGINAW BAY MAY COME INTO PLAY. 850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH TO LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CONTINUED MODEST COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN PROMOTES LESS DAYTIME
MIXING...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHTS
TRANSLATING TO MINS IN THE 50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AS 00Z EURO TRACKS THE 500
MB TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THURSDAY...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER
OR JUST NORTH....DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.

MARINE...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...AND
LOOKING AT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A
SECONDARY FRONT AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
HOWEVER...SLOWLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FOR THURSDAY WILL THEN PROVIDE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......DRK
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KAPX 031336
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
936 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALMOST ALL FOG AND STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MIXED OUT...BUT A
BIG AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING INTO NRN LOWER...WHILE
EASTERN UPPER WAS FILLING IN WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN DEEPER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. ALL-IN-ALL SHAPING UP TO BECOME A
RATHER CLOUDY DAY.

SFC TROUGH WAS ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
MORNING...AND LOOKS TO DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH NRN LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SOME
ONSHORE TURNING OF THE WIND...RESULTING IN SOME ADDED LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AND NE
LOWER.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS THOUGHT ALREADY PLAYED OUT...BUT DID
SLIDE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOUTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM
CHIPPEWA COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LIFT INTO A
BKN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SPILLS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THAT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH
SMALL HAIL. AFTER THE STRATUS AND FOG...VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031336
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
936 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALMOST ALL FOG AND STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MIXED OUT...BUT A
BIG AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING INTO NRN LOWER...WHILE
EASTERN UPPER WAS FILLING IN WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN DEEPER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. ALL-IN-ALL SHAPING UP TO BECOME A
RATHER CLOUDY DAY.

SFC TROUGH WAS ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
MORNING...AND LOOKS TO DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH NRN LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SOME
ONSHORE TURNING OF THE WIND...RESULTING IN SOME ADDED LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AND NE
LOWER.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS THOUGHT ALREADY PLAYED OUT...BUT DID
SLIDE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOUTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM
CHIPPEWA COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LIFT INTO A
BKN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SPILLS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THAT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH
SMALL HAIL. AFTER THE STRATUS AND FOG...VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031336
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
936 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALMOST ALL FOG AND STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MIXED OUT...BUT A
BIG AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING INTO NRN LOWER...WHILE
EASTERN UPPER WAS FILLING IN WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN DEEPER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. ALL-IN-ALL SHAPING UP TO BECOME A
RATHER CLOUDY DAY.

SFC TROUGH WAS ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
MORNING...AND LOOKS TO DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH NRN LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SOME
ONSHORE TURNING OF THE WIND...RESULTING IN SOME ADDED LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AND NE
LOWER.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS THOUGHT ALREADY PLAYED OUT...BUT DID
SLIDE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOUTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM
CHIPPEWA COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LIFT INTO A
BKN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SPILLS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THAT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH
SMALL HAIL. AFTER THE STRATUS AND FOG...VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMQT 031057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031045
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LIFT INTO A
BKNMVFR DECK OF CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING...MIXING
OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL.
AFTER THE STRATUS AND FOG...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KDTX 030958
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
558 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015


.AVIATION...

THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACTING UPON RESIDUAL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. TRANSIENT NATURE IN THE COVERAGE AND SHALLOW
DEPTH FORECASTED IN MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A RAPID LIFTING TREND WITH
GROWTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER. CLOUDS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO LIFT TODAY
BEFORE MIXING OUT BY THIS EVENING. TIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 406 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY QUICKLY AMPLIFIES OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA. NWP AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FOR
TODAY UNDERPINNING WHAT WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. RATHER OVERALL DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE GOVERNED BY ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE. AN EXCEPTION FOR A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER...NORTHERN LAKE HURON...AND DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN THUMB WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWERS WILL EXIST. A STEEP
LAPSE RATE 800-700MB LAYER IS FORECASTED TO STREAM INTO THESE AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEST DEFORMATION AND
FGEN FORCING WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE HIGH BASED INSTABILITY
LIMITING THE OVERALL POTENTIAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME SNEAKY LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID 80 DEGREE READINGS FOR THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE AREAS/HEAT
ISLAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN.

LONG TERM...

VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PINWHEELING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ONE SUCH UPPER WAVE DESCENDING FROM WESTERN
HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TIGHTENING UP THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR (SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S) IN PLACE...LI`S
LOOK TO REMAIN POSITIVE. HOWEVER...GOOD 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL CU UP DURING THE DAY WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG
..AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...WHERE ADDED
MOISTURE BOOST FROM SAGINAW BAY MAY COME INTO PLAY. 850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH TO LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CONTINUED MODEST COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN PROMOTES LESS DAYTIME
MIXING...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHTS
TRANSLATING TO MINS IN THE 50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AS 00Z EURO TRACKS THE 500
MB TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THURSDAY...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER
OR JUST NORTH....DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.

MARINE...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...AND
LOOKING AT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A
SECONDARY FRONT AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
HOWEVER...SLOWLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FOR THURSDAY WILL THEN PROVIDE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 030958
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
558 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015


.AVIATION...

THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACTING UPON RESIDUAL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. TRANSIENT NATURE IN THE COVERAGE AND SHALLOW
DEPTH FORECASTED IN MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A RAPID LIFTING TREND WITH
GROWTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER. CLOUDS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO LIFT TODAY
BEFORE MIXING OUT BY THIS EVENING. TIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 406 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY QUICKLY AMPLIFIES OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA. NWP AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FOR
TODAY UNDERPINNING WHAT WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. RATHER OVERALL DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE GOVERNED BY ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE. AN EXCEPTION FOR A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER...NORTHERN LAKE HURON...AND DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN THUMB WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWERS WILL EXIST. A STEEP
LAPSE RATE 800-700MB LAYER IS FORECASTED TO STREAM INTO THESE AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEST DEFORMATION AND
FGEN FORCING WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE HIGH BASED INSTABILITY
LIMITING THE OVERALL POTENTIAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME SNEAKY LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID 80 DEGREE READINGS FOR THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE AREAS/HEAT
ISLAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN.

LONG TERM...

VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PINWHEELING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ONE SUCH UPPER WAVE DESCENDING FROM WESTERN
HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TIGHTENING UP THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR (SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S) IN PLACE...LI`S
LOOK TO REMAIN POSITIVE. HOWEVER...GOOD 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL CU UP DURING THE DAY WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG
..AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...WHERE ADDED
MOISTURE BOOST FROM SAGINAW BAY MAY COME INTO PLAY. 850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH TO LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CONTINUED MODEST COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN PROMOTES LESS DAYTIME
MIXING...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHTS
TRANSLATING TO MINS IN THE 50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AS 00Z EURO TRACKS THE 500
MB TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THURSDAY...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER
OR JUST NORTH....DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.

MARINE...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...AND
LOOKING AT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A
SECONDARY FRONT AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
HOWEVER...SLOWLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FOR THURSDAY WILL THEN PROVIDE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRR 030930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
530 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF US 131. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
FEATURED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED ON A FEW
SPOTTER REPORTS AND OCCASIONAL AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS DIPPING DOWN
BELOW A MILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY IS FUNNELING IN NW FLOW AND CAA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO
HOLD UP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME GUSTS ONCE AGAIN OF 20-30
MPH. ALSO...THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 5K-10K FT
LAYER TO SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THIS AND SO DOES
THE ECMWF. H850 TEMPS OF 10-12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

OTHER THAN THIS...A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS STILL HANGING UP AROUND 60F AND WINDS
GOING CALM. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND APPEARS RATHER
QUIET.  NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WHICH WOULD KEEP US
COOL...BUT THIS BECOMES MORE ZONAL INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SIGNAL
A SLIGHT WARM UP.

ONLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
THURSDAY.  A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE FRONT.  AREAS
SOUTH OF I-96 STAND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHERWISE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES SUPPLYING MICHIGAN WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW.  THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THIS
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO WARM.  FOR NOW KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPS AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING AND SKIES WHERE
CLEARING BEHIND IT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT DEW POINTS WILL BE DROPPING OFF NICELY...SO THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AND IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z
TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD THE NOON HOUR ON MONDAY
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT THEN DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCA WILL BE SET TO EXPIRE AT 8AM AND THAT STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3/2-4 FEET
DEPENDING ON THE NSH ZONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH WITH THE
STORMS LAST NIGHT. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOVING
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 030930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
530 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF US 131. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
FEATURED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED ON A FEW
SPOTTER REPORTS AND OCCASIONAL AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS DIPPING DOWN
BELOW A MILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY IS FUNNELING IN NW FLOW AND CAA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO
HOLD UP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME GUSTS ONCE AGAIN OF 20-30
MPH. ALSO...THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 5K-10K FT
LAYER TO SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THIS AND SO DOES
THE ECMWF. H850 TEMPS OF 10-12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

OTHER THAN THIS...A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS STILL HANGING UP AROUND 60F AND WINDS
GOING CALM. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND APPEARS RATHER
QUIET.  NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WHICH WOULD KEEP US
COOL...BUT THIS BECOMES MORE ZONAL INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SIGNAL
A SLIGHT WARM UP.

ONLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
THURSDAY.  A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE FRONT.  AREAS
SOUTH OF I-96 STAND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHERWISE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES SUPPLYING MICHIGAN WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW.  THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THIS
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO WARM.  FOR NOW KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPS AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING AND SKIES WHERE
CLEARING BEHIND IT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT DEW POINTS WILL BE DROPPING OFF NICELY...SO THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AND IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z
TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD THE NOON HOUR ON MONDAY
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT THEN DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCA WILL BE SET TO EXPIRE AT 8AM AND THAT STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3/2-4 FEET
DEPENDING ON THE NSH ZONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH WITH THE
STORMS LAST NIGHT. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOVING
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...HOVING



000
FXUS63 KMQT 030813
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030813
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 030813
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KDTX 030806
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
406 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY QUICKLY AMPLIFIES OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA. NWP AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FOR
TODAY UNDERPINNING WHAT WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. RATHER OVERALL DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE GOVERNED BY ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE. AN EXCEPTION FOR A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER...NORTHERN LAKE HURON...AND DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN THUMB WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWERS WILL EXIST. A STEEP
LAPSE RATE 800-700MB LAYER IS FORECASTED TO STREAM INTO THESE AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEST DEFORMATION AND
FGEN FORCING WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE HIGH BASED INSTABILITY
LIMITING THE OVERALL POTENTIAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME SNEAKY LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID 80 DEGREE READINGS FOR THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE AREAS/HEAT
ISLAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...

VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PINWHEELING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ONE SUCH UPPER WAVE DESCENDING FROM WESTERN
HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TIGHTENING UP THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR (SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S) IN PLACE...LI`S
LOOK TO REMAIN POSITIVE. HOWEVER...GOOD 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL CU UP DURING THE DAY WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG
...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...WHERE ADDED
MOISTURE BOOST FROM SAGINAW BAY MAY COME INTO PLAY. 850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH TO LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CONTINUED MODEST COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN PROMOTES LESS DAYTIME
MIXING...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHTS
TRANSLATING TO MINS IN THE 50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AS 00Z EURO TRACKS THE 500
MB TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THURSDAY...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER
OR JUST NORTH....DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.

&&

.MARINE...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...AND
LOOKING AT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A
SECONDARY FRONT AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
HOWEVER...SLOWLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FOR THURSDAY WILL THEN PROVIDE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SETTLED INTO PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA.
TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE FIRST
HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF CYCLE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH ONSET OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW IFR STRATUS DECK TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OBSERVING PLATFORMS HAVE
RECORDED THE IFR CIGS NOW ITS A QUESTION OF OVERALL DEVELOPING
COVERAGE. KEPT CIGS AT BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR FOR THE DETROIT
TERMINALS. DEVELOPING BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY WILL LEAD TO WEST WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PREDOMINATELY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES BETWEEN 06-
  08Z.

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR
  CIGS OF LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 030806
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
406 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY QUICKLY AMPLIFIES OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA. NWP AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FOR
TODAY UNDERPINNING WHAT WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. RATHER OVERALL DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE GOVERNED BY ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE. AN EXCEPTION FOR A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER...NORTHERN LAKE HURON...AND DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN THUMB WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWERS WILL EXIST. A STEEP
LAPSE RATE 800-700MB LAYER IS FORECASTED TO STREAM INTO THESE AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEST DEFORMATION AND
FGEN FORCING WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE HIGH BASED INSTABILITY
LIMITING THE OVERALL POTENTIAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME SNEAKY LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID 80 DEGREE READINGS FOR THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE AREAS/HEAT
ISLAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...

VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PINWHEELING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ONE SUCH UPPER WAVE DESCENDING FROM WESTERN
HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TIGHTENING UP THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR (SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S) IN PLACE...LI`S
LOOK TO REMAIN POSITIVE. HOWEVER...GOOD 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL CU UP DURING THE DAY WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG
...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...WHERE ADDED
MOISTURE BOOST FROM SAGINAW BAY MAY COME INTO PLAY. 850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH TO LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CONTINUED MODEST COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN PROMOTES LESS DAYTIME
MIXING...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHTS
TRANSLATING TO MINS IN THE 50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AS 00Z EURO TRACKS THE 500
MB TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THURSDAY...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER
OR JUST NORTH....DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.

&&

.MARINE...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...AND
LOOKING AT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A
SECONDARY FRONT AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
HOWEVER...SLOWLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FOR THURSDAY WILL THEN PROVIDE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SETTLED INTO PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA.
TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE FIRST
HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF CYCLE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH ONSET OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW IFR STRATUS DECK TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OBSERVING PLATFORMS HAVE
RECORDED THE IFR CIGS NOW ITS A QUESTION OF OVERALL DEVELOPING
COVERAGE. KEPT CIGS AT BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR FOR THE DETROIT
TERMINALS. DEVELOPING BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY WILL LEAD TO WEST WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PREDOMINATELY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES BETWEEN 06-
  08Z.

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR
  CIGS OF LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030733
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
333 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL BE VERY SLOW TO ENTER THE REGION...BEHIND A
COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING ACROSS LAKE HURON. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE LINGERING DOWN LOW...SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL BRING IN IFR CONDITIONS AT
PLN/APN...NOT SO AT TVC/MBL...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN. WILL SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL LIFT MONDAY MORNING AS A W TO NW BREEZE
INCREASES. SOME -SHRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NE LOWER (APN AREA).

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...A NW TO W BREEZE MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KGRR 030718
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF US 131. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
FEATURED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY IS FUNNELING IN NW FLOW AND CAA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO
HOLD UP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME GUSTS ONCE AGAIN OF 20-30
MPH. ALSO...THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 5K-10K FT
LAYER TO SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THIS AND SO DOES
THE ECMWF. H850 TEMPS OF 10-12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

OTHER THAN THIS...A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS STILL HANGING UP AROUND 60F AND WINDS
GOING CALM. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND APPEARS RATHER
QUIET.  NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WHICH WOULD KEEP US
COOL...BUT THIS BECOMES MORE ZONAL INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SIGNAL
A SLIGHT WARM UP.

ONLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
THURSDAY.  A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE FRONT.  AREAS
SOUTH OF I-96 STAND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHERWISE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES SUPPLYING MICHIGAN WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW.  THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THIS
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO WARM.  FOR NOW KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPS AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING AND SKIES WHERE
CLEARING BEHIND IT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT DEW POINTS WILL BE DROPPING OFF NICELY...SO THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AND IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z
TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD THE NOON HOUR ON MONDAY
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT THEN DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCA WILL BE SET TO EXPIRE AT 8AM AND THAT STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3/2-4 FEET
DEPENDING ON THE NSH ZONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH WITH THE
STORMS LAST NIGHT. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...HOVING



000
FXUS63 KGRR 030718
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF US 131. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
FEATURED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY IS FUNNELING IN NW FLOW AND CAA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO
HOLD UP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME GUSTS ONCE AGAIN OF 20-30
MPH. ALSO...THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 5K-10K FT
LAYER TO SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THIS AND SO DOES
THE ECMWF. H850 TEMPS OF 10-12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

OTHER THAN THIS...A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS STILL HANGING UP AROUND 60F AND WINDS
GOING CALM. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND APPEARS RATHER
QUIET.  NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WHICH WOULD KEEP US
COOL...BUT THIS BECOMES MORE ZONAL INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SIGNAL
A SLIGHT WARM UP.

ONLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
THURSDAY.  A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE FRONT.  AREAS
SOUTH OF I-96 STAND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHERWISE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES SUPPLYING MICHIGAN WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW.  THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THIS
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO WARM.  FOR NOW KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPS AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING AND SKIES WHERE
CLEARING BEHIND IT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT DEW POINTS WILL BE DROPPING OFF NICELY...SO THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AND IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z
TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD THE NOON HOUR ON MONDAY
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT THEN DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCA WILL BE SET TO EXPIRE AT 8AM AND THAT STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3/2-4 FEET
DEPENDING ON THE NSH ZONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH WITH THE
STORMS LAST NIGHT. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 030718
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF US 131. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
FEATURED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY IS FUNNELING IN NW FLOW AND CAA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO
HOLD UP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME GUSTS ONCE AGAIN OF 20-30
MPH. ALSO...THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 5K-10K FT
LAYER TO SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THIS AND SO DOES
THE ECMWF. H850 TEMPS OF 10-12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

OTHER THAN THIS...A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS STILL HANGING UP AROUND 60F AND WINDS
GOING CALM. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND APPEARS RATHER
QUIET.  NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WHICH WOULD KEEP US
COOL...BUT THIS BECOMES MORE ZONAL INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SIGNAL
A SLIGHT WARM UP.

ONLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
THURSDAY.  A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE FRONT.  AREAS
SOUTH OF I-96 STAND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHERWISE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES SUPPLYING MICHIGAN WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW.  THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THIS
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO WARM.  FOR NOW KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPS AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING AND SKIES WHERE
CLEARING BEHIND IT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT DEW POINTS WILL BE DROPPING OFF NICELY...SO THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AND IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z
TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD THE NOON HOUR ON MONDAY
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT THEN DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCA WILL BE SET TO EXPIRE AT 8AM AND THAT STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3/2-4 FEET
DEPENDING ON THE NSH ZONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH WITH THE
STORMS LAST NIGHT. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 030541
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. SOME HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND REMAIN COOL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WX EVENT CENTERED ON
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA. OUR THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED AT
ALL AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP BY MID
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WERE FLIRTING WITH THE NRN PORTION OF
THE CWFA EARLIER HAVE GENERALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA...BECOMING
A BIGGER MCS ACROSS NE LOWER AND LAKE HURON. WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MOVE AWAY FOR NOW...WITH SOME ISOLATED
CELLS STARTING TO POP. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OF
THESE BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE FROM NRN LOWER BACK THROUGH WI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NC WI WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE U.P.. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ONLY MOVING INTO WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THAT AREA HAVING
BEEN WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION EARLIER. AS IT MOVES SOUTH JUST A
LITTLE MORE...IT WILL START RUNNING INTO OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
T/TD OF 90S/MID 60S. THIS SHOULD HELP FIRE STORMS OFF NICELY PER THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.

WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA
AROUND 6-7 PM...DROP DOWN INTO THE GRR AREA AROUND 9-10 PM...AND
THEN EXIT THE CWFA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ML CAPES REMAIN UP
AROUND 2-3K J/KG...AND MU CAPES ARE OVER 4K FT. THESE WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF SOME AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT WE WILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF
THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LLJ CONTINUING TO FEED PLENTY OF UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. THE LAKE COULD HAMPER THE STORMS SOME...BUT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WI...THAT SHOULD MOVE IN HERE
WITH THE FLOW IN PLACE.

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF WIND
IN THE 2-4K LEVELS AND THE STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THICK CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER. THE STRONG SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WILL ALSO HELP THE CAUSE
FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES SPINNING UP ON THE LINE. PWATS IN THE
1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH DROP DOWN TOWARD
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA ON MON...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH FOR
TUE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOME. THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE AREA THEN BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING AND SKIES WHERE
CLEARING BEHIND IT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT DEW POINTS WILL BE DROPPING OFF NICELY...SO THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AND IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z
TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD THE NOON HOUR ON MONDAY
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT THEN DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ARE COMING UP AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS AND BOATERS OUT ON THE BIG LAKE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MON
WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF NEEDED
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST... AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN QUICK ORDER.
PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS MAY OCCUR... AS WELL AS RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT TO BE LIMITED. LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE INFLUX OF WATER WITHOUT INCIDENT...
GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND CURRENT STREAMFLOWS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KDTX 030525
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015


.AVIATION...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SETTLED INTO PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA.
TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OMITTENLY DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO
OF THE TAF CYCLE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW IFR STRATUS DECK TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OBSERVING PLATFORMS HAVE RECORDED THE IFR
CIGS NOW ITS A QUESTION OF OVERALL DEVELOPING COVERAGE. KEPT CIGS AT
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR FOR THE DETROIT TERMINALS. DEVELOPING BOUNDARY
LAYER TODAY WILL LEAD TO WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
PREDOMINATELY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES BETWEEN 06-
  08Z.

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR
  CIGS OF LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 325 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN CWA ALONG
WEST TO EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THAT AREA ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TRACK(S) FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
69 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ADVECTING INTO AREA FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY...EXPECT SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. TO THIS POINT...THIS ACTIVITY HAS HAS
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. IF THIS
REMAINS THE CASE...LATER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD HAVE A
STRAIGHT SHOT INTO THE AREA WITHIN TOO MUCH IMPEDANCE FROM
STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS.

THIS MAIN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...STILL LOOKS TO ORGANIZE FROM VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
WESTERN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORK INTO THE
REGION...THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD COMBINE INTO A PRETTY SOLID LINE (OR
TWO) OF STORMS AND ACCELERATE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
MID TO LATE EVENING. WHILE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...CURRENTLY 2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL EASE BY THIS TIME...HIGH BULK SHEAR FROM
STRONG WIND FIELD...ALONG WITH GENERAL UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF THE
MESOSCALE SYSTEM...SHOULD SUPPORT RATHER WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

AS OF 3 PM...IT APPEARS THE STORM CLUSTER THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
OUR MAIN EVENT THIS EVENING IS ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS
THE FULL UPPER SUPPORT OF THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THIS AREA. THIS CURRENT LOCATION SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ADVANCE INTO THE AREA BY PERHAPS 1 OR 2 HOURS -VS- THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THIS BASICALLY FOCUSES THIS NEXT ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT 23Z-00Z OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO 01Z-
02Z FLINT INTO NORTHERN METRO DETROIT...AND QUICKLY SOUTH FROM THERE
THE REST OF THE EVENING AS WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS MATURES AND RACES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
CONFINED WITHIN COOLER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL STILL
PIVOT DOWN ACROSS MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE STILL KEYING IN ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FROM I-69 NORTH
WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND WHERE COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL OVERLAP WITH DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY...AND
MAY AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL FEEL COOLER WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
MORE COMFORTABLE READINGS IN THE 50S...AND AS DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FAIR WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO POP. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. CONFIDENCE
AND TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FUNNEL. THE FRONT AND A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS PRECEDING IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-
     422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 030525
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015


.AVIATION...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SETTLED INTO PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA.
TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OMITTENLY DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO
OF THE TAF CYCLE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW IFR STRATUS DECK TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OBSERVING PLATFORMS HAVE RECORDED THE IFR
CIGS NOW ITS A QUESTION OF OVERALL DEVELOPING COVERAGE. KEPT CIGS AT
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR FOR THE DETROIT TERMINALS. DEVELOPING BOUNDARY
LAYER TODAY WILL LEAD TO WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
PREDOMINATELY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES BETWEEN 06-
  08Z.

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR
  CIGS OF LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 325 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN CWA ALONG
WEST TO EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THAT AREA ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TRACK(S) FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
69 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ADVECTING INTO AREA FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY...EXPECT SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. TO THIS POINT...THIS ACTIVITY HAS HAS
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. IF THIS
REMAINS THE CASE...LATER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD HAVE A
STRAIGHT SHOT INTO THE AREA WITHIN TOO MUCH IMPEDANCE FROM
STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS.

THIS MAIN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...STILL LOOKS TO ORGANIZE FROM VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
WESTERN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORK INTO THE
REGION...THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD COMBINE INTO A PRETTY SOLID LINE (OR
TWO) OF STORMS AND ACCELERATE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
MID TO LATE EVENING. WHILE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...CURRENTLY 2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL EASE BY THIS TIME...HIGH BULK SHEAR FROM
STRONG WIND FIELD...ALONG WITH GENERAL UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF THE
MESOSCALE SYSTEM...SHOULD SUPPORT RATHER WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

AS OF 3 PM...IT APPEARS THE STORM CLUSTER THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
OUR MAIN EVENT THIS EVENING IS ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS
THE FULL UPPER SUPPORT OF THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THIS AREA. THIS CURRENT LOCATION SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ADVANCE INTO THE AREA BY PERHAPS 1 OR 2 HOURS -VS- THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THIS BASICALLY FOCUSES THIS NEXT ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT 23Z-00Z OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO 01Z-
02Z FLINT INTO NORTHERN METRO DETROIT...AND QUICKLY SOUTH FROM THERE
THE REST OF THE EVENING AS WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS MATURES AND RACES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
CONFINED WITHIN COOLER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL STILL
PIVOT DOWN ACROSS MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE STILL KEYING IN ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FROM I-69 NORTH
WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND WHERE COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL OVERLAP WITH DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY...AND
MAY AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL FEEL COOLER WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
MORE COMFORTABLE READINGS IN THE 50S...AND AS DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FAIR WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO POP. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. CONFIDENCE
AND TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FUNNEL. THE FRONT AND A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS PRECEDING IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-
     422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 030525
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015


.AVIATION...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SETTLED INTO PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA.
TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OMITTENLY DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO
OF THE TAF CYCLE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW IFR STRATUS DECK TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OBSERVING PLATFORMS HAVE RECORDED THE IFR
CIGS NOW ITS A QUESTION OF OVERALL DEVELOPING COVERAGE. KEPT CIGS AT
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR FOR THE DETROIT TERMINALS. DEVELOPING BOUNDARY
LAYER TODAY WILL LEAD TO WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
PREDOMINATELY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES BETWEEN 06-
  08Z.

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR
  CIGS OF LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 325 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN CWA ALONG
WEST TO EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THAT AREA ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TRACK(S) FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
69 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ADVECTING INTO AREA FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY...EXPECT SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. TO THIS POINT...THIS ACTIVITY HAS HAS
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. IF THIS
REMAINS THE CASE...LATER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD HAVE A
STRAIGHT SHOT INTO THE AREA WITHIN TOO MUCH IMPEDANCE FROM
STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS.

THIS MAIN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...STILL LOOKS TO ORGANIZE FROM VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
WESTERN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORK INTO THE
REGION...THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD COMBINE INTO A PRETTY SOLID LINE (OR
TWO) OF STORMS AND ACCELERATE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
MID TO LATE EVENING. WHILE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...CURRENTLY 2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL EASE BY THIS TIME...HIGH BULK SHEAR FROM
STRONG WIND FIELD...ALONG WITH GENERAL UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF THE
MESOSCALE SYSTEM...SHOULD SUPPORT RATHER WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

AS OF 3 PM...IT APPEARS THE STORM CLUSTER THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
OUR MAIN EVENT THIS EVENING IS ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS
THE FULL UPPER SUPPORT OF THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THIS AREA. THIS CURRENT LOCATION SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ADVANCE INTO THE AREA BY PERHAPS 1 OR 2 HOURS -VS- THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THIS BASICALLY FOCUSES THIS NEXT ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT 23Z-00Z OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO 01Z-
02Z FLINT INTO NORTHERN METRO DETROIT...AND QUICKLY SOUTH FROM THERE
THE REST OF THE EVENING AS WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS MATURES AND RACES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
CONFINED WITHIN COOLER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL STILL
PIVOT DOWN ACROSS MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE STILL KEYING IN ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FROM I-69 NORTH
WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND WHERE COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL OVERLAP WITH DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY...AND
MAY AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL FEEL COOLER WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
MORE COMFORTABLE READINGS IN THE 50S...AND AS DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FAIR WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO POP. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. CONFIDENCE
AND TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FUNNEL. THE FRONT AND A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS PRECEDING IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-
     422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 030525
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015


.AVIATION...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SETTLED INTO PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA.
TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OMITTENLY DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO
OF THE TAF CYCLE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW IFR STRATUS DECK TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OBSERVING PLATFORMS HAVE RECORDED THE IFR
CIGS NOW ITS A QUESTION OF OVERALL DEVELOPING COVERAGE. KEPT CIGS AT
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR FOR THE DETROIT TERMINALS. DEVELOPING BOUNDARY
LAYER TODAY WILL LEAD TO WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
PREDOMINATELY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES BETWEEN 06-
  08Z.

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR
  CIGS OF LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 325 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN CWA ALONG
WEST TO EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THAT AREA ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TRACK(S) FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
69 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ADVECTING INTO AREA FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY...EXPECT SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. TO THIS POINT...THIS ACTIVITY HAS HAS
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. IF THIS
REMAINS THE CASE...LATER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD HAVE A
STRAIGHT SHOT INTO THE AREA WITHIN TOO MUCH IMPEDANCE FROM
STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS.

THIS MAIN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...STILL LOOKS TO ORGANIZE FROM VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
WESTERN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORK INTO THE
REGION...THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD COMBINE INTO A PRETTY SOLID LINE (OR
TWO) OF STORMS AND ACCELERATE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
MID TO LATE EVENING. WHILE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...CURRENTLY 2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL EASE BY THIS TIME...HIGH BULK SHEAR FROM
STRONG WIND FIELD...ALONG WITH GENERAL UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF THE
MESOSCALE SYSTEM...SHOULD SUPPORT RATHER WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

AS OF 3 PM...IT APPEARS THE STORM CLUSTER THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
OUR MAIN EVENT THIS EVENING IS ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS
THE FULL UPPER SUPPORT OF THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THIS AREA. THIS CURRENT LOCATION SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ADVANCE INTO THE AREA BY PERHAPS 1 OR 2 HOURS -VS- THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THIS BASICALLY FOCUSES THIS NEXT ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT 23Z-00Z OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO 01Z-
02Z FLINT INTO NORTHERN METRO DETROIT...AND QUICKLY SOUTH FROM THERE
THE REST OF THE EVENING AS WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS MATURES AND RACES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
CONFINED WITHIN COOLER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL STILL
PIVOT DOWN ACROSS MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE STILL KEYING IN ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FROM I-69 NORTH
WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND WHERE COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL OVERLAP WITH DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY...AND
MAY AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL FEEL COOLER WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
MORE COMFORTABLE READINGS IN THE 50S...AND AS DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FAIR WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO POP. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. CONFIDENCE
AND TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FUNNEL. THE FRONT AND A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS PRECEDING IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-
     422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 030520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030400
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WHEW!

STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LINGERS OVER SE
SECTIONS. A ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO IS SEEN ELSEWHERE...BUT BY AND
LARGE A DRYING TREND IS EVIDENT. VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
WELL DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS DECK IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE W/NW OF
THIS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN
SUPERIOR...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER NE WI. WE SUDDENLY HAVE AN
ABUNDANCE OF BL MOISTURE...AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION UNTIL MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL THUS LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL BE VERY SLOW TO ENTER THE REGION...BEHIND A
COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING ACROSS LAKE HURON. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE LINGERING DOWN LOW...SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL BRING IN IFR CONDITIONS AT
PLN/APN...NOT SO AT TVC/MBL...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN. WILL SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL LIFT MONDAY MORNING AS A W TO NW BREEZE
INCREASES. SOME -SHRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NE LOWER (APN AREA).

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...A NW TO W BREEZE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WHEW!

STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LINGERS OVER SE
SECTIONS. A ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO IS SEEN ELSEWHERE...BUT BY AND
LARGE A DRYING TREND IS EVIDENT. VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
WELL DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS DECK IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE W/NW OF
THIS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN
SUPERIOR...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER NE WI. WE SUDDENLY HAVE AN
ABUNDANCE OF BL MOISTURE...AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION UNTIL MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL THUS LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WHEW!

STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LINGERS OVER SE
SECTIONS. A ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO IS SEEN ELSEWHERE...BUT BY AND
LARGE A DRYING TREND IS EVIDENT. VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
WELL DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS DECK IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE W/NW OF
THIS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN
SUPERIOR...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER NE WI. WE SUDDENLY HAVE AN
ABUNDANCE OF BL MOISTURE...AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION UNTIL MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL THUS LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WHEW!

STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LINGERS OVER SE
SECTIONS. A ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO IS SEEN ELSEWHERE...BUT BY AND
LARGE A DRYING TREND IS EVIDENT. VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
WELL DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS DECK IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE W/NW OF
THIS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN
SUPERIOR...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER NE WI. WE SUDDENLY HAVE AN
ABUNDANCE OF BL MOISTURE...AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION UNTIL MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL THUS LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WHEW!

STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LINGERS OVER SE
SECTIONS. A ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO IS SEEN ELSEWHERE...BUT BY AND
LARGE A DRYING TREND IS EVIDENT. VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
WELL DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS DECK IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE W/NW OF
THIS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN
SUPERIOR...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER NE WI. WE SUDDENLY HAVE AN
ABUNDANCE OF BL MOISTURE...AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION UNTIL MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL THUS LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KAPX 030155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WHEW!

STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LINGERS OVER SE
SECTIONS. A ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO IS SEEN ELSEWHERE...BUT BY AND
LARGE A DRYING TREND IS EVIDENT. VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
WELL DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS DECK IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE W/NW OF
THIS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN
SUPERIOR...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER NE WI. WE SUDDENLY HAVE AN
ABUNDANCE OF BL MOISTURE...AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION UNTIL MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL THUS LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WHEW!

STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LINGERS OVER SE
SECTIONS. A ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO IS SEEN ELSEWHERE...BUT BY AND
LARGE A DRYING TREND IS EVIDENT. VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
WELL DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS DECK IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE W/NW OF
THIS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN
SUPERIOR...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER NE WI. WE SUDDENLY HAVE AN
ABUNDANCE OF BL MOISTURE...AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION UNTIL MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL THUS LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KGRR 030019
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
819 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CONVECTION LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE AS IT MOVES
SE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT WAS
FUELING THE LINE WAS OVER WEST CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 00Z AND WILL
HEAD TOWARD SE LOWER BY MIDNIGHT. THE LINE WAS RUNNING INTO JUICY
AIR WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH MAY
CAUSE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE LINE TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED.
THIS MAY RESULT IN MOSTLY A HAIL THREAT FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
HOWEVER THE LINE SEGMENT ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA IS MOSTLY STILL
SURFACE BASED AND A WIND THREAT STILL REMAINS ALONG WITH A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. AS OF 0015Z RADAR SHOWS A CORE OF 75 KNOT WINDS OVER
EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WEST OF MUSKEGON COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THIS IS
ABOUT 5K FEET ABOVE GROUND...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL TO MIX
THIS DOWN GIVEN THE INTENSE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AFTER THE LINE PASSES AND THE WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED ONCE THE LINE IS THROUGH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. SOME HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND REMAIN COOL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WX EVENT CENTERED ON
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA. OUR THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED AT
ALL AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP BY MID
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WERE FLIRTING WITH THE NRN PORTION OF
THE CWFA EARLIER HAVE GENERALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA...BECOMING
A BIGGER MCS ACROSS NE LOWER AND LAKE HURON. WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MOVE AWAY FOR NOW...WITH SOME ISOLATED
CELLS STARTING TO POP. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OF
THESE BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE FROM NRN LOWER BACK THROUGH WI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NC WI WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE U.P.. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ONLY MOVING INTO WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THAT AREA HAVING
BEEN WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION EARLIER. AS IT MOVES SOUTH JUST A
LITTLE MORE...IT WILL START RUNNING INTO OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
T/TD OF 90S/MID 60S. THIS SHOULD HELP FIRE STORMS OFF NICELY PER THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.

WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA
AROUND 6-7 PM...DROP DOWN INTO THE GRR AREA AROUND 9-10 PM...AND
THEN EXIT THE CWFA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ML CAPES REMAIN UP
AROUND 2-3K J/KG...AND MU CAPES ARE OVER 4K FT. THESE WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF SOME AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT WE WILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF
THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LLJ CONTINUING TO FEED PLENTY OF UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. THE LAKE COULD HAMPER THE STORMS SOME...BUT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WI...THAT SHOULD MOVE IN HERE
WITH THE FLOW IN PLACE.

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF WIND
IN THE 2-4K LEVELS AND THE STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THICK CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER. THE STRONG SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WILL ALSO HELP THE CAUSE
FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES SPINNING UP ON THE LINE. PWATS IN THE
1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH DROP DOWN TOWARD
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA ON MON...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH FOR
TUE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOME. THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE AREA THEN BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z. FAST MOVEMENT AND NARROW WIDTH OF BAND SHOULD
MAKE FOR RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR AIRCRAFT
OPERATIONS. CLEARING EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH A
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ARE COMING UP AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS AND BOATERS OUT ON THE BIG LAKE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MON
WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF NEEDED
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST... AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN QUICK ORDER.
PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS MAY OCCUR... AS WELL AS RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT TO BE LIMITED. LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE INFLUX OF WATER WITHOUT INCIDENT...
GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND CURRENT STREAMFLOWS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...JK
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 030019
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
819 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CONVECTION LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE AS IT MOVES
SE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT WAS
FUELING THE LINE WAS OVER WEST CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 00Z AND WILL
HEAD TOWARD SE LOWER BY MIDNIGHT. THE LINE WAS RUNNING INTO JUICY
AIR WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH MAY
CAUSE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE LINE TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED.
THIS MAY RESULT IN MOSTLY A HAIL THREAT FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
HOWEVER THE LINE SEGMENT ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA IS MOSTLY STILL
SURFACE BASED AND A WIND THREAT STILL REMAINS ALONG WITH A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. AS OF 0015Z RADAR SHOWS A CORE OF 75 KNOT WINDS OVER
EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WEST OF MUSKEGON COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THIS IS
ABOUT 5K FEET ABOVE GROUND...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL TO MIX
THIS DOWN GIVEN THE INTENSE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AFTER THE LINE PASSES AND THE WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED ONCE THE LINE IS THROUGH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. SOME HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND REMAIN COOL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WX EVENT CENTERED ON
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA. OUR THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED AT
ALL AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP BY MID
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WERE FLIRTING WITH THE NRN PORTION OF
THE CWFA EARLIER HAVE GENERALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA...BECOMING
A BIGGER MCS ACROSS NE LOWER AND LAKE HURON. WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MOVE AWAY FOR NOW...WITH SOME ISOLATED
CELLS STARTING TO POP. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OF
THESE BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE FROM NRN LOWER BACK THROUGH WI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NC WI WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE U.P.. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ONLY MOVING INTO WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THAT AREA HAVING
BEEN WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION EARLIER. AS IT MOVES SOUTH JUST A
LITTLE MORE...IT WILL START RUNNING INTO OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
T/TD OF 90S/MID 60S. THIS SHOULD HELP FIRE STORMS OFF NICELY PER THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.

WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA
AROUND 6-7 PM...DROP DOWN INTO THE GRR AREA AROUND 9-10 PM...AND
THEN EXIT THE CWFA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ML CAPES REMAIN UP
AROUND 2-3K J/KG...AND MU CAPES ARE OVER 4K FT. THESE WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF SOME AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT WE WILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF
THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LLJ CONTINUING TO FEED PLENTY OF UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. THE LAKE COULD HAMPER THE STORMS SOME...BUT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WI...THAT SHOULD MOVE IN HERE
WITH THE FLOW IN PLACE.

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF WIND
IN THE 2-4K LEVELS AND THE STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THICK CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER. THE STRONG SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WILL ALSO HELP THE CAUSE
FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES SPINNING UP ON THE LINE. PWATS IN THE
1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH DROP DOWN TOWARD
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA ON MON...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH FOR
TUE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOME. THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE AREA THEN BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z. FAST MOVEMENT AND NARROW WIDTH OF BAND SHOULD
MAKE FOR RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR AIRCRAFT
OPERATIONS. CLEARING EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH A
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ARE COMING UP AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS AND BOATERS OUT ON THE BIG LAKE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MON
WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF NEEDED
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST... AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN QUICK ORDER.
PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS MAY OCCUR... AS WELL AS RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT TO BE LIMITED. LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE INFLUX OF WATER WITHOUT INCIDENT...
GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND CURRENT STREAMFLOWS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...JK
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 030019
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
819 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CONVECTION LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE AS IT MOVES
SE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT WAS
FUELING THE LINE WAS OVER WEST CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 00Z AND WILL
HEAD TOWARD SE LOWER BY MIDNIGHT. THE LINE WAS RUNNING INTO JUICY
AIR WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH MAY
CAUSE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE LINE TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED.
THIS MAY RESULT IN MOSTLY A HAIL THREAT FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
HOWEVER THE LINE SEGMENT ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA IS MOSTLY STILL
SURFACE BASED AND A WIND THREAT STILL REMAINS ALONG WITH A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. AS OF 0015Z RADAR SHOWS A CORE OF 75 KNOT WINDS OVER
EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WEST OF MUSKEGON COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THIS IS
ABOUT 5K FEET ABOVE GROUND...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL TO MIX
THIS DOWN GIVEN THE INTENSE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AFTER THE LINE PASSES AND THE WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED ONCE THE LINE IS THROUGH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. SOME HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND REMAIN COOL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WX EVENT CENTERED ON
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA. OUR THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED AT
ALL AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP BY MID
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WERE FLIRTING WITH THE NRN PORTION OF
THE CWFA EARLIER HAVE GENERALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA...BECOMING
A BIGGER MCS ACROSS NE LOWER AND LAKE HURON. WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MOVE AWAY FOR NOW...WITH SOME ISOLATED
CELLS STARTING TO POP. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OF
THESE BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE FROM NRN LOWER BACK THROUGH WI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NC WI WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE U.P.. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ONLY MOVING INTO WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THAT AREA HAVING
BEEN WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION EARLIER. AS IT MOVES SOUTH JUST A
LITTLE MORE...IT WILL START RUNNING INTO OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
T/TD OF 90S/MID 60S. THIS SHOULD HELP FIRE STORMS OFF NICELY PER THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.

WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA
AROUND 6-7 PM...DROP DOWN INTO THE GRR AREA AROUND 9-10 PM...AND
THEN EXIT THE CWFA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ML CAPES REMAIN UP
AROUND 2-3K J/KG...AND MU CAPES ARE OVER 4K FT. THESE WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF SOME AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT WE WILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF
THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LLJ CONTINUING TO FEED PLENTY OF UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. THE LAKE COULD HAMPER THE STORMS SOME...BUT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WI...THAT SHOULD MOVE IN HERE
WITH THE FLOW IN PLACE.

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF WIND
IN THE 2-4K LEVELS AND THE STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THICK CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER. THE STRONG SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WILL ALSO HELP THE CAUSE
FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES SPINNING UP ON THE LINE. PWATS IN THE
1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH DROP DOWN TOWARD
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA ON MON...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH FOR
TUE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOME. THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE AREA THEN BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z. FAST MOVEMENT AND NARROW WIDTH OF BAND SHOULD
MAKE FOR RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR AIRCRAFT
OPERATIONS. CLEARING EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH A
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ARE COMING UP AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS AND BOATERS OUT ON THE BIG LAKE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MON
WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF NEEDED
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST... AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN QUICK ORDER.
PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS MAY OCCUR... AS WELL AS RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT TO BE LIMITED. LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE INFLUX OF WATER WITHOUT INCIDENT...
GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND CURRENT STREAMFLOWS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...JK
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KMQT 030000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LARGE MASS OF
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ROTATE SE...ARRIVING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AT KCMX AND THEN
EXPANDING TO KIWD/KSAW MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP TO NEAR THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW MON.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES AS
WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 030000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LARGE MASS OF
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ROTATE SE...ARRIVING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AT KCMX AND THEN
EXPANDING TO KIWD/KSAW MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP TO NEAR THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW MON.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES AS
WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LARGE MASS OF
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ROTATE SE...ARRIVING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AT KCMX AND THEN
EXPANDING TO KIWD/KSAW MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP TO NEAR THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW MON.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES AS
WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LARGE MASS OF
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ROTATE SE...ARRIVING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AT KCMX AND THEN
EXPANDING TO KIWD/KSAW MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP TO NEAR THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW MON.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES AS
WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KAPX 022340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
 016-019>021-025-026-031.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KAPX 022340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
 016-019>021-025-026-031.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KAPX 022340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
 016-019>021-025-026-031.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KAPX 022340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
 016-019>021-025-026-031.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KGRR 022338
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
738 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. SOME HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND REMAIN COOL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WX EVENT CENTERED ON
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA. OUR THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED AT
ALL AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP BY MID
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WERE FLIRTING WITH THE NRN PORTION OF
THE CWFA EARLIER HAVE GENERALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA...BECOMING
A BIGGER MCS ACROSS NE LOWER AND LAKE HURON. WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MOVE AWAY FOR NOW...WITH SOME ISOLATED
CELLS STARTING TO POP. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OF
THESE BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE FROM NRN LOWER BACK THROUGH WI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NC WI WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE U.P.. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ONLY MOVING INTO WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THAT AREA HAVING
BEEN WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION EARLIER. AS IT MOVES SOUTH JUST A
LITTLE MORE...IT WILL START RUNNING INTO OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
T/TD OF 90S/MID 60S. THIS SHOULD HELP FIRE STORMS OFF NICELY PER THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.

WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA
AROUND 6-7 PM...DROP DOWN INTO THE GRR AREA AROUND 9-10 PM...AND
THEN EXIT THE CWFA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ML CAPES REMAIN UP
AROUND 2-3K J/KG...AND MU CAPES ARE OVER 4K FT. THESE WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF SOME AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT WE WILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF
THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LLJ CONTINUING TO FEED PLENTY OF UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. THE LAKE COULD HAMPER THE STORMS SOME...BUT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WI...THAT SHOULD MOVE IN HERE
WITH THE FLOW IN PLACE.

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF WIND
IN THE 2-4K LEVELS AND THE STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THICK CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER. THE STRONG SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WILL ALSO HELP THE CAUSE
FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES SPINNING UP ON THE LINE. PWATS IN THE
1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH DROP DOWN TOWARD
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA ON MON...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH FOR
TUE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOME. THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE AREA THEN BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z. FAST MOVEMENT AND NARROW WIDTH OF BAND SHOULD
MAKE FOR RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR AIRCRAFT
OPERATIONS. CLEARING EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH A
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ARE COMING UP AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS AND BOATERS OUT ON THE BIG LAKE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MON
WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF NEEDED
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST... AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN QUICK ORDER.
PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS MAY OCCUR... AS WELL AS RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT TO BE LIMITED. LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE INFLUX OF WATER WITHOUT INCIDENT...
GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND CURRENT STREAMFLOWS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KGRR 022338
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
738 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. SOME HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND REMAIN COOL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WX EVENT CENTERED ON
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA. OUR THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED AT
ALL AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP BY MID
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WERE FLIRTING WITH THE NRN PORTION OF
THE CWFA EARLIER HAVE GENERALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA...BECOMING
A BIGGER MCS ACROSS NE LOWER AND LAKE HURON. WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MOVE AWAY FOR NOW...WITH SOME ISOLATED
CELLS STARTING TO POP. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OF
THESE BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE FROM NRN LOWER BACK THROUGH WI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NC WI WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE U.P.. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ONLY MOVING INTO WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THAT AREA HAVING
BEEN WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION EARLIER. AS IT MOVES SOUTH JUST A
LITTLE MORE...IT WILL START RUNNING INTO OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
T/TD OF 90S/MID 60S. THIS SHOULD HELP FIRE STORMS OFF NICELY PER THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.

WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA
AROUND 6-7 PM...DROP DOWN INTO THE GRR AREA AROUND 9-10 PM...AND
THEN EXIT THE CWFA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ML CAPES REMAIN UP
AROUND 2-3K J/KG...AND MU CAPES ARE OVER 4K FT. THESE WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF SOME AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT WE WILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF
THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LLJ CONTINUING TO FEED PLENTY OF UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. THE LAKE COULD HAMPER THE STORMS SOME...BUT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WI...THAT SHOULD MOVE IN HERE
WITH THE FLOW IN PLACE.

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF WIND
IN THE 2-4K LEVELS AND THE STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THICK CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER. THE STRONG SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WILL ALSO HELP THE CAUSE
FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES SPINNING UP ON THE LINE. PWATS IN THE
1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH DROP DOWN TOWARD
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA ON MON...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH FOR
TUE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOME. THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE AREA THEN BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z. FAST MOVEMENT AND NARROW WIDTH OF BAND SHOULD
MAKE FOR RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR AIRCRAFT
OPERATIONS. CLEARING EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH A
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ARE COMING UP AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS AND BOATERS OUT ON THE BIG LAKE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MON
WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF NEEDED
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST... AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN QUICK ORDER.
PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS MAY OCCUR... AS WELL AS RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT TO BE LIMITED. LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE INFLUX OF WATER WITHOUT INCIDENT...
GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND CURRENT STREAMFLOWS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KDTX 022304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015


.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND WILL AFFECT
MBS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND THEN SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 05Z OR SO. EXPECT IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURS...WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL THE
STRONGEST STORMS. IN FACT...POCKETS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS MAY PERSIST DURING
THE NIGHT WITH A STRAY SHRA OR TWO AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A TRANSITION BACK TO VFR INTO MONDAY.

FOR DTW...MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE 02Z-
06Z TIME FRAME AS LINE OF CONVECTION WORKS INTO AREA IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN CLEAR THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS 00Z-03Z...THEN MEDIUM 03Z-06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 325 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN CWA ALONG
WEST TO EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THAT AREA ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TRACK(S) FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
69 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ADVECTING INTO AREA FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY...EXPECT SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. TO THIS POINT...THIS ACTIVITY HAS HAS
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. IF THIS
REMAINS THE CASE...LATER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD HAVE A
STRAIGHT SHOT INTO THE AREA WITHIN TOO MUCH IMPEDANCE FROM
STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS.

THIS MAIN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...STILL LOOKS TO ORGANIZE FROM VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
WESTERN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORK INTO THE
REGION...THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD COMBINE INTO A PRETTY SOLID LINE (OR
TWO) OF STORMS AND ACCELERATE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
MID TO LATE EVENING. WHILE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...CURRENTLY 2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL EASE BY THIS TIME...HIGH BULK SHEAR FROM
STRONG WIND FIELD...ALONG WITH GENERAL UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF THE
MESOSCALE SYSTEM...SHOULD SUPPORT RATHER WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

AS OF 3 PM...IT APPEARS THE STORM CLUSTER THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
OUR MAIN EVENT THIS EVENING IS ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS
THE FULL UPPER SUPPORT OF THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THIS AREA. THIS CURRENT LOCATION SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ADVANCE INTO THE AREA BY PERHAPS 1 OR 2 HOURS -VS- THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THIS BASICALLY FOCUSES THIS NEXT ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT 23Z-00Z OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO 01Z-
02Z FLINT INTO NORTHERN METRO DETROIT...AND QUICKLY SOUTH FROM THERE
THE REST OF THE EVENING AS WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS MATURES AND RACES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
CONFINED WITHIN COOLER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL STILL
PIVOT DOWN ACROSS MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE STILL KEYING IN ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FROM I-69 NORTH
WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND WHERE COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL OVERLAP WITH DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY...AND
MAY AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL FEEL COOLER WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
MORE COMFORTABLE READINGS IN THE 50S...AND AS DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FAIR WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO POP. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. CONFIDENCE
AND TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FUNNEL. THE FRONT AND A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS PRECEDING IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DT
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 022304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015


.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND WILL AFFECT
MBS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND THEN SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 05Z OR SO. EXPECT IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURS...WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL THE
STRONGEST STORMS. IN FACT...POCKETS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS MAY PERSIST DURING
THE NIGHT WITH A STRAY SHRA OR TWO AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A TRANSITION BACK TO VFR INTO MONDAY.

FOR DTW...MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE 02Z-
06Z TIME FRAME AS LINE OF CONVECTION WORKS INTO AREA IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN CLEAR THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS 00Z-03Z...THEN MEDIUM 03Z-06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 325 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN CWA ALONG
WEST TO EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THAT AREA ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TRACK(S) FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
69 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ADVECTING INTO AREA FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY...EXPECT SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. TO THIS POINT...THIS ACTIVITY HAS HAS
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. IF THIS
REMAINS THE CASE...LATER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD HAVE A
STRAIGHT SHOT INTO THE AREA WITHIN TOO MUCH IMPEDANCE FROM
STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS.

THIS MAIN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...STILL LOOKS TO ORGANIZE FROM VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
WESTERN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORK INTO THE
REGION...THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD COMBINE INTO A PRETTY SOLID LINE (OR
TWO) OF STORMS AND ACCELERATE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
MID TO LATE EVENING. WHILE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...CURRENTLY 2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL EASE BY THIS TIME...HIGH BULK SHEAR FROM
STRONG WIND FIELD...ALONG WITH GENERAL UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF THE
MESOSCALE SYSTEM...SHOULD SUPPORT RATHER WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

AS OF 3 PM...IT APPEARS THE STORM CLUSTER THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
OUR MAIN EVENT THIS EVENING IS ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS
THE FULL UPPER SUPPORT OF THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THIS AREA. THIS CURRENT LOCATION SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ADVANCE INTO THE AREA BY PERHAPS 1 OR 2 HOURS -VS- THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THIS BASICALLY FOCUSES THIS NEXT ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT 23Z-00Z OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO 01Z-
02Z FLINT INTO NORTHERN METRO DETROIT...AND QUICKLY SOUTH FROM THERE
THE REST OF THE EVENING AS WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS MATURES AND RACES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
CONFINED WITHIN COOLER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL STILL
PIVOT DOWN ACROSS MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE STILL KEYING IN ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FROM I-69 NORTH
WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND WHERE COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL OVERLAP WITH DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY...AND
MAY AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL FEEL COOLER WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
MORE COMFORTABLE READINGS IN THE 50S...AND AS DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FAIR WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO POP. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. CONFIDENCE
AND TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FUNNEL. THE FRONT AND A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS PRECEDING IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DT
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 022139
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
539 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 539 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS TAKING
SHAPE JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE LINE THEN EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO
WISCONSIN. THE LINE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR SO...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PROGRESS TO THE SE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

WE ARE MORE FOCUSED ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS WI...AS THIS IS WHAT
WOULD TEND TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS
INDICATE ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL EXPAND TO THE WEST ALONG THE
INCOMING FRONT/SHORT WAVE. THIS IS COMING INTO 3000-5000 J/KG OF
MU CAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN...WHICH SHOULD HELP IT TO EXPAND
THERE AND THEN MOVE INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.

LLJ REMAINS OVERHEAD...HELPING 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION AND HELPING TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME MORE ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL INCLUDING BASEBALL SIZED HAIL IN OGEMAW COUNTY. THE
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY INCLUDES THICK CAPE IN THE HAIL GENERATION
LAYER. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN TRYING TO
ROTATE...INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. SOME HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND REMAIN COOL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WX EVENT CENTERED ON
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA. OUR THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED AT
ALL AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP BY MID
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WERE FLIRTING WITH THE NRN PORTION OF
THE CWFA EARLIER HAVE GENERALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA...BECOMING
A BIGGER MCS ACROSS NE LOWER AND LAKE HURON. WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MOVE AWAY FOR NOW...WITH SOME ISOLATED
CELLS STARTING TO POP. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OF
THESE BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE FROM NRN LOWER BACK THROUGH WI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NC WI WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE U.P.. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ONLY MOVING INTO WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THAT AREA HAVING
BEEN WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION EARLIER. AS IT MOVES SOUTH JUST A
LITTLE MORE...IT WILL START RUNNING INTO OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
T/TD OF 90S/MID 60S. THIS SHOULD HELP FIRE STORMS OFF NICELY PER THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.

WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA
AROUND 6-7 PM...DROP DOWN INTO THE GRR AREA AROUND 9-10 PM...AND
THEN EXIT THE CWFA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ML CAPES REMAIN UP
AROUND 2-3K J/KG...AND MU CAPES ARE OVER 4K FT. THESE WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF SOME AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT WE WILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF
THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LLJ CONTINUING TO FEED PLENTY OF UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. THE LAKE COULD HAMPER THE STORMS SOME...BUT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WI...THAT SHOULD MOVE IN HERE
WITH THE FLOW IN PLACE.

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF WIND
IN THE 2-4K LEVELS AND THE STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THICK CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER. THE STRONG SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WILL ALSO HELP THE CAUSE
FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES SPINNING UP ON THE LINE. PWATS IN THE
1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH DROP DOWN TOWARD
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA ON MON...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH FOR
TUE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOME. THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE AREA THEN BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ARE COMING UP AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS AND BOATERS OUT ON THE BIG LAKE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MON
WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF NEEDED
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST... AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN QUICK ORDER.
PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS MAY OCCUR... AS WELL AS RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT TO BE LIMITED. LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE INFLUX OF WATER WITHOUT INCIDENT...
GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND CURRENT STREAMFLOWS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 022139
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
539 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 539 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS TAKING
SHAPE JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE LINE THEN EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO
WISCONSIN. THE LINE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR SO...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PROGRESS TO THE SE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

WE ARE MORE FOCUSED ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS WI...AS THIS IS WHAT
WOULD TEND TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS
INDICATE ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL EXPAND TO THE WEST ALONG THE
INCOMING FRONT/SHORT WAVE. THIS IS COMING INTO 3000-5000 J/KG OF
MU CAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN...WHICH SHOULD HELP IT TO EXPAND
THERE AND THEN MOVE INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.

LLJ REMAINS OVERHEAD...HELPING 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION AND HELPING TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME MORE ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL INCLUDING BASEBALL SIZED HAIL IN OGEMAW COUNTY. THE
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY INCLUDES THICK CAPE IN THE HAIL GENERATION
LAYER. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN TRYING TO
ROTATE...INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. SOME HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND REMAIN COOL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WX EVENT CENTERED ON
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA. OUR THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED AT
ALL AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP BY MID
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WERE FLIRTING WITH THE NRN PORTION OF
THE CWFA EARLIER HAVE GENERALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA...BECOMING
A BIGGER MCS ACROSS NE LOWER AND LAKE HURON. WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MOVE AWAY FOR NOW...WITH SOME ISOLATED
CELLS STARTING TO POP. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OF
THESE BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE FROM NRN LOWER BACK THROUGH WI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NC WI WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE U.P.. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ONLY MOVING INTO WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THAT AREA HAVING
BEEN WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION EARLIER. AS IT MOVES SOUTH JUST A
LITTLE MORE...IT WILL START RUNNING INTO OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
T/TD OF 90S/MID 60S. THIS SHOULD HELP FIRE STORMS OFF NICELY PER THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.

WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA
AROUND 6-7 PM...DROP DOWN INTO THE GRR AREA AROUND 9-10 PM...AND
THEN EXIT THE CWFA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ML CAPES REMAIN UP
AROUND 2-3K J/KG...AND MU CAPES ARE OVER 4K FT. THESE WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF SOME AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT WE WILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF
THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LLJ CONTINUING TO FEED PLENTY OF UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. THE LAKE COULD HAMPER THE STORMS SOME...BUT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WI...THAT SHOULD MOVE IN HERE
WITH THE FLOW IN PLACE.

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF WIND
IN THE 2-4K LEVELS AND THE STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THICK CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER. THE STRONG SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WILL ALSO HELP THE CAUSE
FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES SPINNING UP ON THE LINE. PWATS IN THE
1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH DROP DOWN TOWARD
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA ON MON...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH FOR
TUE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOME. THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE AREA THEN BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ARE COMING UP AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS AND BOATERS OUT ON THE BIG LAKE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MON
WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF NEEDED
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST... AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN QUICK ORDER.
PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS MAY OCCUR... AS WELL AS RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT TO BE LIMITED. LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE INFLUX OF WATER WITHOUT INCIDENT...
GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND CURRENT STREAMFLOWS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 022002
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR AVIATORS. A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS FUELING PERIODS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE
STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-07Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN SCT-BKN SC/CU LIFT TO
VFR THRESHOLD. COOLER NW BREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KAPX 022002
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR AVIATORS. A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS FUELING PERIODS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE
STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-07Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN SCT-BKN SC/CU LIFT TO
VFR THRESHOLD. COOLER NW BREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021944
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 021944
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 021944
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 021944
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 021944
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021944
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 021943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 021943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 021943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 021943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KDTX 021925
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
325 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN CWA ALONG
WEST TO EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THAT AREA ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TRACK(S) FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
69 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ADVECTING INTO AREA FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY...EXPECT SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. TO THIS POINT...THIS ACTIVITY HAS HAS
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. IF THIS
REMAINS THE CASE...LATER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD HAVE A
STRAIGHT SHOT INTO THE AREA WITHIN TOO MUCH IMPEDANCE FROM
STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS.

THIS MAIN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...STILL LOOKS TO ORGANIZE FROM VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
WESTERN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORK INTO THE
REGION...THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD COMBINE INTO A PRETTY SOLID LINE (OR
TWO) OF STORMS AND ACCELERATE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
MID TO LATE EVENING. WHILE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...CURRENTLY 2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL EASE BY THIS TIME...HIGH BULK SHEAR FROM
STRONG WIND FIELD...ALONG WITH GENERAL UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF THE
MESOSCALE SYSTEM...SHOULD SUPPORT RATHER WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

AS OF 3 PM...IT APPEARS THE STORM CLUSTER THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
OUR MAIN EVENT THIS EVENING IS ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS
THE FULL UPPER SUPPORT OF THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THIS AREA. THIS CURRENT LOCATION SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ADVANCE INTO THE AREA BY PERHAPS 1 OR 2 HOURS -VS- THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THIS BASICALLY FOCUSES THIS NEXT ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT 23Z-00Z OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO 01Z-
02Z FLINT INTO NORTHERN METRO DETROIT...AND QUICKLY SOUTH FROM THERE
THE REST OF THE EVENING AS WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS MATURES AND RACES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
CONFINED WITHIN COOLER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL STILL
PIVOT DOWN ACROSS MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE STILL KEYING IN ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FROM I-69 NORTH
WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND WHERE COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL OVERLAP WITH DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY...AND
MAY AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL FEEL COOLER WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
MORE COMFORTABLE READINGS IN THE 50S...AND AS DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FAIR WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO POP. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. CONFIDENCE
AND TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FUNNEL. THE FRONT AND A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS PRECEDING IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 146 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH SHOULD CONGEAL AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF A POCKETS OF SEVERE WEATHER
WITHIN THIS EXPECTED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY
PROGRESS FROM MBS AT 00Z-01Z TO THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 03Z-05Z AND
THEN EXIT SOUTH OF WHOLE AREA AFTER 06-07Z. OTHERWISE THAN PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD...ONCE AGAIN...BE THE
RULE ONCE THE STORMY WEATHER ENDS TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 021925
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
325 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN CWA ALONG
WEST TO EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THAT AREA ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TRACK(S) FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
69 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ADVECTING INTO AREA FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY...EXPECT SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. TO THIS POINT...THIS ACTIVITY HAS HAS
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. IF THIS
REMAINS THE CASE...LATER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD HAVE A
STRAIGHT SHOT INTO THE AREA WITHIN TOO MUCH IMPEDANCE FROM
STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS.

THIS MAIN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...STILL LOOKS TO ORGANIZE FROM VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
WESTERN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORK INTO THE
REGION...THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD COMBINE INTO A PRETTY SOLID LINE (OR
TWO) OF STORMS AND ACCELERATE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
MID TO LATE EVENING. WHILE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...CURRENTLY 2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL EASE BY THIS TIME...HIGH BULK SHEAR FROM
STRONG WIND FIELD...ALONG WITH GENERAL UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF THE
MESOSCALE SYSTEM...SHOULD SUPPORT RATHER WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

AS OF 3 PM...IT APPEARS THE STORM CLUSTER THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
OUR MAIN EVENT THIS EVENING IS ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS
THE FULL UPPER SUPPORT OF THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THIS AREA. THIS CURRENT LOCATION SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ADVANCE INTO THE AREA BY PERHAPS 1 OR 2 HOURS -VS- THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THIS BASICALLY FOCUSES THIS NEXT ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT 23Z-00Z OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO 01Z-
02Z FLINT INTO NORTHERN METRO DETROIT...AND QUICKLY SOUTH FROM THERE
THE REST OF THE EVENING AS WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS MATURES AND RACES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
CONFINED WITHIN COOLER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL STILL
PIVOT DOWN ACROSS MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE STILL KEYING IN ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FROM I-69 NORTH
WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND WHERE COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL OVERLAP WITH DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY...AND
MAY AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL FEEL COOLER WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
MORE COMFORTABLE READINGS IN THE 50S...AND AS DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FAIR WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO POP. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. CONFIDENCE
AND TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FUNNEL. THE FRONT AND A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS PRECEDING IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 146 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH SHOULD CONGEAL AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF A POCKETS OF SEVERE WEATHER
WITHIN THIS EXPECTED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY
PROGRESS FROM MBS AT 00Z-01Z TO THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 03Z-05Z AND
THEN EXIT SOUTH OF WHOLE AREA AFTER 06-07Z. OTHERWISE THAN PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD...ONCE AGAIN...BE THE
RULE ONCE THE STORMY WEATHER ENDS TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 021902
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. SOME HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND REMAIN COOL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WX EVENT CENTERED ON
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA. OUR THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED AT
ALL AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP BY MID
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WERE FLIRTING WITH THE NRN PORTION OF
THE CWFA EARLIER HAVE GENERALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA...BECOMING
A BIGGER MCS ACROSS NE LOWER AND LAKE HURON. WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MOVE AWAY FOR NOW...WITH SOME ISOLATED
CELLS STARTING TO POP. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OF
THESE BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE FROM NRN LOWER BACK THROUGH WI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NC WI WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE U.P.. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ONLY MOVING INTO WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THAT AREA HAVING
BEEN WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION EARLIER. AS IT MOVES SOUTH JUST A
LITTLE MORE...IT WILL START RUNNING INTO OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
T/TD OF 90S/MID 60S. THIS SHOULD HELP FIRE STORMS OFF NICELY PER THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.

WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA
AROUND 6-7 PM...DROP DOWN INTO THE GRR AREA AROUND 9-10 PM...AND
THEN EXIT THE CWFA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ML CAPES REMAIN UP
AROUND 2-3K J/KG...AND MU CAPES ARE OVER 4K FT. THESE WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF SOME AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT WE WILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF
THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LLJ CONTINUING TO FEED PLENTY OF UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. THE LAKE COULD HAMPER THE STORMS SOME...BUT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WI...THAT SHOULD MOVE IN HERE
WITH THE FLOW IN PLACE.

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF WIND
IN THE 2-4K LEVELS AND THE STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THICK CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER. THE STRONG SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WILL ALSO HELP THE CAUSE
FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES SPINNING UP ON THE LINE. PWATS IN THE
1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH DROP DOWN TOWARD
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA ON MON...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH FOR
TUE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOME. THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE AREA THEN BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ARE COMING UP AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS AND BOATERS OUT ON THE BIG LAKE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MON
WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF NEEDED
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST... AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN QUICK ORDER.
PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS MAY OCCUR... AS WELL AS RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT TO BE LIMITED. LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE INFLUX OF WATER WITHOUT INCIDENT...
GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND CURRENT STREAMFLOWS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021902
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. SOME HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND REMAIN COOL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WX EVENT CENTERED ON
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA. OUR THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED AT
ALL AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP BY MID
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WERE FLIRTING WITH THE NRN PORTION OF
THE CWFA EARLIER HAVE GENERALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA...BECOMING
A BIGGER MCS ACROSS NE LOWER AND LAKE HURON. WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MOVE AWAY FOR NOW...WITH SOME ISOLATED
CELLS STARTING TO POP. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OF
THESE BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE FROM NRN LOWER BACK THROUGH WI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NC WI WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE U.P.. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ONLY MOVING INTO WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THAT AREA HAVING
BEEN WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION EARLIER. AS IT MOVES SOUTH JUST A
LITTLE MORE...IT WILL START RUNNING INTO OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
T/TD OF 90S/MID 60S. THIS SHOULD HELP FIRE STORMS OFF NICELY PER THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.

WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA
AROUND 6-7 PM...DROP DOWN INTO THE GRR AREA AROUND 9-10 PM...AND
THEN EXIT THE CWFA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ML CAPES REMAIN UP
AROUND 2-3K J/KG...AND MU CAPES ARE OVER 4K FT. THESE WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF SOME AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT WE WILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF
THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LLJ CONTINUING TO FEED PLENTY OF UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. THE LAKE COULD HAMPER THE STORMS SOME...BUT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WI...THAT SHOULD MOVE IN HERE
WITH THE FLOW IN PLACE.

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF WIND
IN THE 2-4K LEVELS AND THE STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THICK CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER. THE STRONG SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WILL ALSO HELP THE CAUSE
FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES SPINNING UP ON THE LINE. PWATS IN THE
1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH DROP DOWN TOWARD
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA ON MON...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH FOR
TUE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOME. THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE AREA THEN BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ARE COMING UP AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS AND BOATERS OUT ON THE BIG LAKE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MON
WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF NEEDED
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST... AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN QUICK ORDER.
PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS MAY OCCUR... AS WELL AS RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT TO BE LIMITED. LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE INFLUX OF WATER WITHOUT INCIDENT...
GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND CURRENT STREAMFLOWS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021757
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRST ROUND OF STORMS /BOWING SEGMENT/ IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
LAKE HURON AFTER PRODUCING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
AND AROUND THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO PUSH INTO NW
LOWER MI NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS IS OCCURRING AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS /50-55 KTS AT 500
MB/ AND WE ALSO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...THANKS TO 65-70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NE.

ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...UNTIL FRONT
TRAVERSES REGION IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR AVIATORS. A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO OVERPSREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS FUELING PERIODS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE
STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-07Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN SCT-BKN SC/CU LIFT TO
VFR THRESHOLD. COOLER NW BREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 021757
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRST ROUND OF STORMS /BOWING SEGMENT/ IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
LAKE HURON AFTER PRODUCING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
AND AROUND THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO PUSH INTO NW
LOWER MI NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS IS OCCURRING AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS /50-55 KTS AT 500
MB/ AND WE ALSO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...THANKS TO 65-70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NE.

ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...UNTIL FRONT
TRAVERSES REGION IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR AVIATORS. A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO OVERPSREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS FUELING PERIODS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE
STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-07Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN SCT-BKN SC/CU LIFT TO
VFR THRESHOLD. COOLER NW BREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 021757
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRST ROUND OF STORMS /BOWING SEGMENT/ IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
LAKE HURON AFTER PRODUCING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
AND AROUND THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO PUSH INTO NW
LOWER MI NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS IS OCCURRING AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS /50-55 KTS AT 500
MB/ AND WE ALSO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...THANKS TO 65-70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NE.

ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...UNTIL FRONT
TRAVERSES REGION IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR AVIATORS. A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO OVERPSREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS FUELING PERIODS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE
STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-07Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN SCT-BKN SC/CU LIFT TO
VFR THRESHOLD. COOLER NW BREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 021757
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRST ROUND OF STORMS /BOWING SEGMENT/ IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
LAKE HURON AFTER PRODUCING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
AND AROUND THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO PUSH INTO NW
LOWER MI NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS IS OCCURRING AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS /50-55 KTS AT 500
MB/ AND WE ALSO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...THANKS TO 65-70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NE.

ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...UNTIL FRONT
TRAVERSES REGION IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR AVIATORS. A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO OVERPSREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS FUELING PERIODS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE
STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-07Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN SCT-BKN SC/CU LIFT TO
VFR THRESHOLD. COOLER NW BREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 021756
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021756
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KDTX 021746
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015


.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH SHOULD CONGEAL AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF A POCKETS OF SEVERE WEATHER
WITHIN THIS EXPECTED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY
PROGRESS FROM MBS AT 00Z-01Z TO THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 03Z-05Z AND
THEN EXIT SOUTH OF WHOLE AREA AFTER 06-07Z. OTHERWISE THAN PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD...ONCE AGAIN...BE THE
RULE ONCE THE STORMY WEATHER ENDS TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1153 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO OUR
NORTH HAS BEEN FAIRLY PREDICTABLE TO THIS POINT. SEVERAL CLUSTERS
OF STORMS CONTINUE TO PEEL EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
INTO THE UP AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR PERSISTS AND A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF STORM COMPLEXES TO THE NORTH SETTLES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH
AS M 59 LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR.

IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKE THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACTUALLY OVERLAP WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY AS OPPOSED TO BEING A
MORE DISTINCT EPISODE. A CONTINUED FLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE CWA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ALONG APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THEN SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSON DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...WHICH
WILL ACT TO DRAG EXISTING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

NET RESULT WILL BE THE SAME AS STORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. TIMING FOR
LARGEST THREAT OF STORMS FOR METRO DETROIT STILL APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AFTER 10 PM AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FOR MANY
LOCALES. WITH ANY LUCK...DECLINING INSTABILITY AT THIS LATER HOUR
WILL TAKE SOME PUNCH OUT OF THE LINE OF STORMS THAT EVENTUALLY
EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
SAID...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND FIELD AND AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THAT
POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

A REFINEMENT OF THOUGHTS AFTER PERUSING FRESH ARRIVING HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE RAP, HRRR AND 00Z 3KM
EXPERIMENTAL NAM WHICH APPEAR TO BE SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, NEW INFORMATION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
M59 REMAIN CAPPED THUS INHIBITING PREMATURE OVERTURNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN APPRECIABLE
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK. THE OFT CONSERVATIVE
07Z RAP INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTY BY 22Z. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIME THUS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER WISCONSIN, LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN WELL MIXED/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/70MPH, IF RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST MAINLY INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE AS EARLY AS 21/22Z. FOR THE SAME REASON, TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCLS. THOUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING`S
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL STILL BE CRITICAL, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRONGLY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR 70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONDITIONAL ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. WILL ALLOW TIME FOR UPDATED SPC DAY 1 AND FOR DAY CREW
TO EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE BEFORE ELEVATING
WORDING IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

FINALLY, AS NOTED IN THE ORIGINAL MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSES
LAND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LATEST RAP RUNS
ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY EVOLVE A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YIELDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST OVER THE THUMB PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
18Z SHOULD UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE WAA/STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
UPDATE.......DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021746
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015


.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH SHOULD CONGEAL AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF A POCKETS OF SEVERE WEATHER
WITHIN THIS EXPECTED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY
PROGRESS FROM MBS AT 00Z-01Z TO THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 03Z-05Z AND
THEN EXIT SOUTH OF WHOLE AREA AFTER 06-07Z. OTHERWISE THAN PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD...ONCE AGAIN...BE THE
RULE ONCE THE STORMY WEATHER ENDS TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1153 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO OUR
NORTH HAS BEEN FAIRLY PREDICTABLE TO THIS POINT. SEVERAL CLUSTERS
OF STORMS CONTINUE TO PEEL EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
INTO THE UP AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR PERSISTS AND A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF STORM COMPLEXES TO THE NORTH SETTLES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH
AS M 59 LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR.

IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKE THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACTUALLY OVERLAP WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY AS OPPOSED TO BEING A
MORE DISTINCT EPISODE. A CONTINUED FLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE CWA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ALONG APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THEN SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSON DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...WHICH
WILL ACT TO DRAG EXISTING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

NET RESULT WILL BE THE SAME AS STORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. TIMING FOR
LARGEST THREAT OF STORMS FOR METRO DETROIT STILL APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AFTER 10 PM AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FOR MANY
LOCALES. WITH ANY LUCK...DECLINING INSTABILITY AT THIS LATER HOUR
WILL TAKE SOME PUNCH OUT OF THE LINE OF STORMS THAT EVENTUALLY
EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
SAID...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND FIELD AND AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THAT
POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

A REFINEMENT OF THOUGHTS AFTER PERUSING FRESH ARRIVING HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE RAP, HRRR AND 00Z 3KM
EXPERIMENTAL NAM WHICH APPEAR TO BE SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, NEW INFORMATION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
M59 REMAIN CAPPED THUS INHIBITING PREMATURE OVERTURNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN APPRECIABLE
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK. THE OFT CONSERVATIVE
07Z RAP INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTY BY 22Z. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIME THUS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER WISCONSIN, LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN WELL MIXED/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/70MPH, IF RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST MAINLY INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE AS EARLY AS 21/22Z. FOR THE SAME REASON, TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCLS. THOUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING`S
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL STILL BE CRITICAL, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRONGLY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR 70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONDITIONAL ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. WILL ALLOW TIME FOR UPDATED SPC DAY 1 AND FOR DAY CREW
TO EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE BEFORE ELEVATING
WORDING IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

FINALLY, AS NOTED IN THE ORIGINAL MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSES
LAND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LATEST RAP RUNS
ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY EVOLVE A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YIELDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST OVER THE THUMB PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
18Z SHOULD UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE WAA/STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
UPDATE.......DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021741
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY IS OBVIOUSLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PLENTY OF AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
MAINLY ACROSS NE WISCONSIN AND NRN MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS ARE
PRETTY MUCH ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE 40 KNOT LLJ THAT IS IN
PLACE. WE ARE EXPECTING AT THIS TIME THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO MT.
PLEASANT LINE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER UP THERE WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER THOSE STORMS ARE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH...TO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE
EXPECT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND A SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN FROM NRN
MN AND THE WRN U.P. WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE THE CONVECTION INTO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT DROPS SE. SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE UP
NORTH...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE PLENTY
OF DESTABILIZATION IS TAKING PLACE WITH THE SUN OUT.

ML CAPES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2000-2500 J/KG IN THE SUNNY AREAS
WITH MU CAPES OVER 3000. THIS WILL ONLY GET WORSE DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LOST AFTER PEAK
HEATING. WE WILL KEEP MUCH OF IT THOUGH...AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MORE INSTABILITY IN ALOFT WITH THE LLJ FEEDING IT IN THROUGH 00Z.

WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED WITH THE STORMS...AND THE LOWEST LEVELS
OF THE PROFILE WILL NOT STABILIZE MUCH. THIS WILL ALLOW DAMAGING
WINDS TO BE A REAL THREAT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE.

TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS LOOKS TO BE AFTER ABOUT 6 PM
ACROSS THE NW...AROUND 10 PM FOR THE GRR AREA...AND THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF JACKSON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RETURNTO
SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021741
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY IS OBVIOUSLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PLENTY OF AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
MAINLY ACROSS NE WISCONSIN AND NRN MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS ARE
PRETTY MUCH ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE 40 KNOT LLJ THAT IS IN
PLACE. WE ARE EXPECTING AT THIS TIME THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO MT.
PLEASANT LINE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER UP THERE WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER THOSE STORMS ARE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH...TO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE
EXPECT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND A SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN FROM NRN
MN AND THE WRN U.P. WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE THE CONVECTION INTO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT DROPS SE. SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE UP
NORTH...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE PLENTY
OF DESTABILIZATION IS TAKING PLACE WITH THE SUN OUT.

ML CAPES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2000-2500 J/KG IN THE SUNNY AREAS
WITH MU CAPES OVER 3000. THIS WILL ONLY GET WORSE DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LOST AFTER PEAK
HEATING. WE WILL KEEP MUCH OF IT THOUGH...AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MORE INSTABILITY IN ALOFT WITH THE LLJ FEEDING IT IN THROUGH 00Z.

WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED WITH THE STORMS...AND THE LOWEST LEVELS
OF THE PROFILE WILL NOT STABILIZE MUCH. THIS WILL ALLOW DAMAGING
WINDS TO BE A REAL THREAT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE.

TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS LOOKS TO BE AFTER ABOUT 6 PM
ACROSS THE NW...AROUND 10 PM FOR THE GRR AREA...AND THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF JACKSON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RETURNTO
SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021741
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY IS OBVIOUSLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PLENTY OF AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
MAINLY ACROSS NE WISCONSIN AND NRN MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS ARE
PRETTY MUCH ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE 40 KNOT LLJ THAT IS IN
PLACE. WE ARE EXPECTING AT THIS TIME THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO MT.
PLEASANT LINE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER UP THERE WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER THOSE STORMS ARE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH...TO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE
EXPECT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND A SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN FROM NRN
MN AND THE WRN U.P. WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE THE CONVECTION INTO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT DROPS SE. SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE UP
NORTH...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE PLENTY
OF DESTABILIZATION IS TAKING PLACE WITH THE SUN OUT.

ML CAPES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2000-2500 J/KG IN THE SUNNY AREAS
WITH MU CAPES OVER 3000. THIS WILL ONLY GET WORSE DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LOST AFTER PEAK
HEATING. WE WILL KEEP MUCH OF IT THOUGH...AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MORE INSTABILITY IN ALOFT WITH THE LLJ FEEDING IT IN THROUGH 00Z.

WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED WITH THE STORMS...AND THE LOWEST LEVELS
OF THE PROFILE WILL NOT STABILIZE MUCH. THIS WILL ALLOW DAMAGING
WINDS TO BE A REAL THREAT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE.

TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS LOOKS TO BE AFTER ABOUT 6 PM
ACROSS THE NW...AROUND 10 PM FOR THE GRR AREA...AND THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF JACKSON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RETURNTO
SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021741
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY IS OBVIOUSLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PLENTY OF AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
MAINLY ACROSS NE WISCONSIN AND NRN MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS ARE
PRETTY MUCH ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE 40 KNOT LLJ THAT IS IN
PLACE. WE ARE EXPECTING AT THIS TIME THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO MT.
PLEASANT LINE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER UP THERE WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER THOSE STORMS ARE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH...TO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE
EXPECT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND A SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN FROM NRN
MN AND THE WRN U.P. WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE THE CONVECTION INTO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT DROPS SE. SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE UP
NORTH...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE PLENTY
OF DESTABILIZATION IS TAKING PLACE WITH THE SUN OUT.

ML CAPES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2000-2500 J/KG IN THE SUNNY AREAS
WITH MU CAPES OVER 3000. THIS WILL ONLY GET WORSE DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LOST AFTER PEAK
HEATING. WE WILL KEEP MUCH OF IT THOUGH...AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MORE INSTABILITY IN ALOFT WITH THE LLJ FEEDING IT IN THROUGH 00Z.

WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED WITH THE STORMS...AND THE LOWEST LEVELS
OF THE PROFILE WILL NOT STABILIZE MUCH. THIS WILL ALLOW DAMAGING
WINDS TO BE A REAL THREAT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE.

TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS LOOKS TO BE AFTER ABOUT 6 PM
ACROSS THE NW...AROUND 10 PM FOR THE GRR AREA...AND THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF JACKSON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RETURNTO
SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING



000
FXUS63 KDTX 021553
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO OUR
NORTH HAS BEEN FAIRLY PREDICTABLE TO THIS POINT. SEVERAL CLUSTERS
OF STORMS CONTINUE TO PEEL EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
INTO THE UP AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR PERSISTS AND A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF STORM COMPLEXES TO THE NORTH SETTLES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH
AS M 59 LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR.

IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKE THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACTUALLY OVERLAP WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY AS OPPOSED TO BEING A
MORE DISTINCT EPISODE. A CONTINUED FLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE CWA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ALONG APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THEN SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSON DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...WHICH
WILL ACT TO DRAG EXISTING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

NET RESULT WILL BE THE SAME AS STORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. TIMING FOR
LARGEST THREAT OF STORMS FOR METRO DETROIT STILL APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AFTER 10 PM AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FOR MANY
LOCALES. WITH ANY LUCK...DECLINING INSTABILITY AT THIS LATER HOUR
WILL TAKE SOME PUNCH OUT OF THE LINE OF STORMS THAT EVENTUALLY
EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
SAID...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND FIELD AND AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THAT
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 633 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO AFTN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TSTORMS TO
IMPACT MAINLY KMBS/KFNT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH BASED CU. MORE
SIGNIFICANT TSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORGANIZES AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM CARRYING AN ELEVATED
SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY FOR NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN
DETROIT AREA GIVEN EXPECTED TSTORM ARRIVAL WELL AFTER SUNSET AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR DTW...VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A TSTORM INVOF KDTW 18-00Z WITH
CAPPING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WARRANTING REMOVAL OF PRIOR PROB30
GROUP. MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

A REFINEMENT OF THOUGHTS AFTER PERUSING FRESH ARRIVING HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE RAP, HRRR AND 00Z 3KM
EXPERIMENTAL NAM WHICH APPEAR TO BE SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, NEW INFORMATION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
M59 REMAIN CAPPED THUS INHIBITING PREMATURE OVERTURNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN APPRECIABLE
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK. THE OFT CONSERVATIVE
07Z RAP INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTY BY 22Z. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIME THUS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER WISCONSIN, LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN WELL MIXED/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/70MPH, IF RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST MAINLY INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE AS EARLY AS 21/22Z. FOR THE SAME REASON, TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCLS. THOUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING`S
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL STILL BE CRITICAL, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRONGLY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR 70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONDITIONAL ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. WILL ALLOW TIME FOR UPDATED SPC DAY 1 AND FOR DAY CREW
TO EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE BEFORE ELEVATING
WORDING IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

FINALLY, AS NOTED IN THE ORIGINAL MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSES
LAND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LATEST RAP RUNS
ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY EVOLVE A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YIELDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST OVER THE THUMB PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
18Z SHOULD UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE WAA/STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......DG
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 021553
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO OUR
NORTH HAS BEEN FAIRLY PREDICTABLE TO THIS POINT. SEVERAL CLUSTERS
OF STORMS CONTINUE TO PEEL EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
INTO THE UP AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR PERSISTS AND A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF STORM COMPLEXES TO THE NORTH SETTLES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH
AS M 59 LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR.

IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKE THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACTUALLY OVERLAP WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY AS OPPOSED TO BEING A
MORE DISTINCT EPISODE. A CONTINUED FLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE CWA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ALONG APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THEN SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSON DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...WHICH
WILL ACT TO DRAG EXISTING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

NET RESULT WILL BE THE SAME AS STORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. TIMING FOR
LARGEST THREAT OF STORMS FOR METRO DETROIT STILL APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AFTER 10 PM AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FOR MANY
LOCALES. WITH ANY LUCK...DECLINING INSTABILITY AT THIS LATER HOUR
WILL TAKE SOME PUNCH OUT OF THE LINE OF STORMS THAT EVENTUALLY
EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
SAID...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND FIELD AND AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THAT
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 633 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO AFTN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TSTORMS TO
IMPACT MAINLY KMBS/KFNT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH BASED CU. MORE
SIGNIFICANT TSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORGANIZES AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM CARRYING AN ELEVATED
SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY FOR NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN
DETROIT AREA GIVEN EXPECTED TSTORM ARRIVAL WELL AFTER SUNSET AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR DTW...VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A TSTORM INVOF KDTW 18-00Z WITH
CAPPING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WARRANTING REMOVAL OF PRIOR PROB30
GROUP. MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

A REFINEMENT OF THOUGHTS AFTER PERUSING FRESH ARRIVING HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE RAP, HRRR AND 00Z 3KM
EXPERIMENTAL NAM WHICH APPEAR TO BE SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, NEW INFORMATION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
M59 REMAIN CAPPED THUS INHIBITING PREMATURE OVERTURNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN APPRECIABLE
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK. THE OFT CONSERVATIVE
07Z RAP INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTY BY 22Z. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIME THUS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER WISCONSIN, LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN WELL MIXED/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/70MPH, IF RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST MAINLY INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE AS EARLY AS 21/22Z. FOR THE SAME REASON, TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCLS. THOUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING`S
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL STILL BE CRITICAL, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRONGLY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR 70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONDITIONAL ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. WILL ALLOW TIME FOR UPDATED SPC DAY 1 AND FOR DAY CREW
TO EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE BEFORE ELEVATING
WORDING IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

FINALLY, AS NOTED IN THE ORIGINAL MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSES
LAND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LATEST RAP RUNS
ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY EVOLVE A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YIELDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST OVER THE THUMB PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
18Z SHOULD UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE WAA/STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......DG
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021553
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO OUR
NORTH HAS BEEN FAIRLY PREDICTABLE TO THIS POINT. SEVERAL CLUSTERS
OF STORMS CONTINUE TO PEEL EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
INTO THE UP AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR PERSISTS AND A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF STORM COMPLEXES TO THE NORTH SETTLES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH
AS M 59 LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR.

IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKE THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACTUALLY OVERLAP WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY AS OPPOSED TO BEING A
MORE DISTINCT EPISODE. A CONTINUED FLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE CWA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ALONG APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THEN SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSON DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...WHICH
WILL ACT TO DRAG EXISTING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

NET RESULT WILL BE THE SAME AS STORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. TIMING FOR
LARGEST THREAT OF STORMS FOR METRO DETROIT STILL APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AFTER 10 PM AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FOR MANY
LOCALES. WITH ANY LUCK...DECLINING INSTABILITY AT THIS LATER HOUR
WILL TAKE SOME PUNCH OUT OF THE LINE OF STORMS THAT EVENTUALLY
EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
SAID...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND FIELD AND AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THAT
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 633 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO AFTN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TSTORMS TO
IMPACT MAINLY KMBS/KFNT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH BASED CU. MORE
SIGNIFICANT TSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORGANIZES AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM CARRYING AN ELEVATED
SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY FOR NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN
DETROIT AREA GIVEN EXPECTED TSTORM ARRIVAL WELL AFTER SUNSET AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR DTW...VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A TSTORM INVOF KDTW 18-00Z WITH
CAPPING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WARRANTING REMOVAL OF PRIOR PROB30
GROUP. MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

A REFINEMENT OF THOUGHTS AFTER PERUSING FRESH ARRIVING HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE RAP, HRRR AND 00Z 3KM
EXPERIMENTAL NAM WHICH APPEAR TO BE SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, NEW INFORMATION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
M59 REMAIN CAPPED THUS INHIBITING PREMATURE OVERTURNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN APPRECIABLE
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK. THE OFT CONSERVATIVE
07Z RAP INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTY BY 22Z. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIME THUS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER WISCONSIN, LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN WELL MIXED/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/70MPH, IF RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST MAINLY INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE AS EARLY AS 21/22Z. FOR THE SAME REASON, TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCLS. THOUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING`S
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL STILL BE CRITICAL, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRONGLY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR 70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONDITIONAL ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. WILL ALLOW TIME FOR UPDATED SPC DAY 1 AND FOR DAY CREW
TO EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE BEFORE ELEVATING
WORDING IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

FINALLY, AS NOTED IN THE ORIGINAL MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSES
LAND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LATEST RAP RUNS
ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY EVOLVE A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YIELDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST OVER THE THUMB PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
18Z SHOULD UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE WAA/STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......DG
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021510
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY IS OBVIOUSLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PLENTY OF AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
MAINLY ACROSS NE WISCONSIN AND NRN MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS ARE
PRETTY MUCH ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE 40 KNOT LLJ THAT IS IN
PLACE. WE ARE EXPECTING AT THIS TIME THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO MT.
PLEASANT LINE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER UP THERE WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER THOSE STORMS ARE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH...TO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE
EXPECT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND A SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN FROM NRN
MN AND THE WRN U.P. WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE THE CONVECTION INTO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT DROPS SE. SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE UP
NORTH...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE PLENTY
OF DESTABILIZATION IS TAKING PLACE WITH THE SUN OUT.

ML CAPES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2000-2500 J/KG IN THE SUNNY AREAS
WITH MU CAPES OVER 3000. THIS WILL ONLY GET WORSE DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LOST AFTER PEAK
HEATING. WE WILL KEEP MUCH OF IT THOUGH...AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MORE INSTABILITY IN ALOFT WITH THE LLJ FEEDING IT IN THROUGH 00Z.

WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED WITH THE STORMS...AND THE LOWEST LEVELS
OF THE PROFILE WILL NOT STABILIZE MUCH. THIS WILL ALLOW DAMAGING
WINDS TO BE A REAL THREAT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE.

TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS LOOKS TO BE AFTER ABOUT 6 PM
ACROSS THE NW...AROUND 10 PM FOR THE GRR AREA...AND THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF JACKSON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SW GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS VERY
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IMPACTING TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE STORMS COULD REACH MKG BY 00Z AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS OR
GREATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINDS OF 50-55 KNOTS COULD
BE OBSERVED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 021510
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY IS OBVIOUSLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PLENTY OF AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
MAINLY ACROSS NE WISCONSIN AND NRN MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS ARE
PRETTY MUCH ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE 40 KNOT LLJ THAT IS IN
PLACE. WE ARE EXPECTING AT THIS TIME THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO MT.
PLEASANT LINE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER UP THERE WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER THOSE STORMS ARE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH...TO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE
EXPECT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND A SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN FROM NRN
MN AND THE WRN U.P. WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE THE CONVECTION INTO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT DROPS SE. SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE UP
NORTH...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE PLENTY
OF DESTABILIZATION IS TAKING PLACE WITH THE SUN OUT.

ML CAPES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2000-2500 J/KG IN THE SUNNY AREAS
WITH MU CAPES OVER 3000. THIS WILL ONLY GET WORSE DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LOST AFTER PEAK
HEATING. WE WILL KEEP MUCH OF IT THOUGH...AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MORE INSTABILITY IN ALOFT WITH THE LLJ FEEDING IT IN THROUGH 00Z.

WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED WITH THE STORMS...AND THE LOWEST LEVELS
OF THE PROFILE WILL NOT STABILIZE MUCH. THIS WILL ALLOW DAMAGING
WINDS TO BE A REAL THREAT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE.

TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS LOOKS TO BE AFTER ABOUT 6 PM
ACROSS THE NW...AROUND 10 PM FOR THE GRR AREA...AND THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF JACKSON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SW GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS VERY
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IMPACTING TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE STORMS COULD REACH MKG BY 00Z AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS OR
GREATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINDS OF 50-55 KNOTS COULD
BE OBSERVED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021510
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY IS OBVIOUSLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PLENTY OF AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
MAINLY ACROSS NE WISCONSIN AND NRN MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS ARE
PRETTY MUCH ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE 40 KNOT LLJ THAT IS IN
PLACE. WE ARE EXPECTING AT THIS TIME THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO MT.
PLEASANT LINE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER UP THERE WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER THOSE STORMS ARE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH...TO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE
EXPECT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND A SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN FROM NRN
MN AND THE WRN U.P. WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE THE CONVECTION INTO A
SQUALL LINE AS IT DROPS SE. SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE UP
NORTH...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE PLENTY
OF DESTABILIZATION IS TAKING PLACE WITH THE SUN OUT.

ML CAPES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2000-2500 J/KG IN THE SUNNY AREAS
WITH MU CAPES OVER 3000. THIS WILL ONLY GET WORSE DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LOST AFTER PEAK
HEATING. WE WILL KEEP MUCH OF IT THOUGH...AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MORE INSTABILITY IN ALOFT WITH THE LLJ FEEDING IT IN THROUGH 00Z.

WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED WITH THE STORMS...AND THE LOWEST LEVELS
OF THE PROFILE WILL NOT STABILIZE MUCH. THIS WILL ALLOW DAMAGING
WINDS TO BE A REAL THREAT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE.

TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS LOOKS TO BE AFTER ABOUT 6 PM
ACROSS THE NW...AROUND 10 PM FOR THE GRR AREA...AND THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF JACKSON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SW GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS VERY
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IMPACTING TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE STORMS COULD REACH MKG BY 00Z AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS OR
GREATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINDS OF 50-55 KNOTS COULD
BE OBSERVED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING



000
FXUS63 KAPX 021509
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1109 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRST ROUND OF STORMS /BOWING SEGMENT/ IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
LAKE HURON AFTER PRODUCING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
AND AROUND THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO PUSH INTO NW
LOWER MI NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS IS OCCURRING AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS /50-55 KTS AT 500
MB/ AND WE ALSO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...THANKS TO 65-70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NE.

ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...UNTIL FRONT
TRAVERSES REGION IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. PASSING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021509
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1109 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRST ROUND OF STORMS /BOWING SEGMENT/ IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
LAKE HURON AFTER PRODUCING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
AND AROUND THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO PUSH INTO NW
LOWER MI NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS IS OCCURRING AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS /50-55 KTS AT 500
MB/ AND WE ALSO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...THANKS TO 65-70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NE.

ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...UNTIL FRONT
TRAVERSES REGION IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. PASSING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KGRR 021144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SW GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS VERY
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IMPACTING TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE STORMS COULD REACH MKG BY 00Z AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS OR
GREATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINDS OF 50-55 KNOTS COULD
BE OBSERVED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 021144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SW GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS VERY
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IMPACTING TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE STORMS COULD REACH MKG BY 00Z AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS OR
GREATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINDS OF 50-55 KNOTS COULD
BE OBSERVED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 021144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SW GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS VERY
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IMPACTING TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE STORMS COULD REACH MKG BY 00Z AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS OR
GREATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINDS OF 50-55 KNOTS COULD
BE OBSERVED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 021144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SW GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS VERY
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IMPACTING TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE STORMS COULD REACH MKG BY 00Z AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS OR
GREATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINDS OF 50-55 KNOTS COULD
BE OBSERVED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 021144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SW GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS VERY
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IMPACTING TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE STORMS COULD REACH MKG BY 00Z AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS OR
GREATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINDS OF 50-55 KNOTS COULD
BE OBSERVED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 021144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SW GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS VERY
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IMPACTING TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE STORMS COULD REACH MKG BY 00Z AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS OR
GREATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINDS OF 50-55 KNOTS COULD
BE OBSERVED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 021144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SW GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS VERY
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IMPACTING TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE STORMS COULD REACH MKG BY 00Z AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS OR
GREATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINDS OF 50-55 KNOTS COULD
BE OBSERVED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 021144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SW GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS VERY
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IMPACTING TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE STORMS COULD REACH MKG BY 00Z AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS OR
GREATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINDS OF 50-55 KNOTS COULD
BE OBSERVED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021143
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. PASSING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 021143
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. PASSING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021143
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. PASSING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 021143
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. PASSING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021113
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 021113
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021113
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 021113
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021033
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
633 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015


.AVIATION...

STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO AFTN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TSTORMS TO
IMPACT MAINLY KMBS/KFNT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH BASED CU. MORE
SIGNIFICANT TSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORGANIZES AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM CARRYING AN ELEVATED
SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY FOR NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN
DETROIT AREA GIVEN EXPECTED TSTORM ARRIVAL WELL AFTER SUNSET AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR DTW...VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A TSTORM INVOF KDTW 18-00Z WITH
CAPPING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WARRANTING REMOVAL OF PRIOR PROB30
GROUP. MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

A REFINEMENT OF THOUGHTS AFTER PERUSING FRESH ARRIVING HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE RAP, HRRR AND 00Z 3KM
EXPERIMENTAL NAM WHICH APPEAR TO BE SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, NEW INFORMATION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
M59 REMAIN CAPPED THUS INHIBITING PREMATURE OVERTURNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN APPRECIABLE
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK. THE OFT CONSERVATIVE
07Z RAP INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTY BY 22Z. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIME THUS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER WISCONSIN, LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN WELL MIXED/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/70MPH, IF RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST MAINLY INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE AS EARLY AS 21/22Z. FOR THE SAME REASON, TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCLS. THOUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING`S
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL STILL BE CRITICAL, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRONGLY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR 70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONDITIONAL ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. WILL ALLOW TIME FOR UPDATED SPC DAY 1 AND FOR DAY CREW
TO EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE BEFORE ELEVATING
WORDING IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

FINALLY, AS NOTED IN THE ORIGINAL MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSES
LAND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LATEST RAP RUNS
ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY EVOLVE A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YIELDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST OVER THE THUMB PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
18Z SHOULD UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE WAA/STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 021033
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
633 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015


.AVIATION...

STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO AFTN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TSTORMS TO
IMPACT MAINLY KMBS/KFNT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH BASED CU. MORE
SIGNIFICANT TSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORGANIZES AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM CARRYING AN ELEVATED
SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY FOR NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN
DETROIT AREA GIVEN EXPECTED TSTORM ARRIVAL WELL AFTER SUNSET AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR DTW...VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A TSTORM INVOF KDTW 18-00Z WITH
CAPPING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WARRANTING REMOVAL OF PRIOR PROB30
GROUP. MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

A REFINEMENT OF THOUGHTS AFTER PERUSING FRESH ARRIVING HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE RAP, HRRR AND 00Z 3KM
EXPERIMENTAL NAM WHICH APPEAR TO BE SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, NEW INFORMATION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
M59 REMAIN CAPPED THUS INHIBITING PREMATURE OVERTURNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN APPRECIABLE
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK. THE OFT CONSERVATIVE
07Z RAP INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTY BY 22Z. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIME THUS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER WISCONSIN, LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN WELL MIXED/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/70MPH, IF RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST MAINLY INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE AS EARLY AS 21/22Z. FOR THE SAME REASON, TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCLS. THOUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING`S
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL STILL BE CRITICAL, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRONGLY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR 70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONDITIONAL ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. WILL ALLOW TIME FOR UPDATED SPC DAY 1 AND FOR DAY CREW
TO EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE BEFORE ELEVATING
WORDING IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

FINALLY, AS NOTED IN THE ORIGINAL MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSES
LAND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LATEST RAP RUNS
ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY EVOLVE A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YIELDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST OVER THE THUMB PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
18Z SHOULD UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE WAA/STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 021033
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
633 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015


.AVIATION...

STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO AFTN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TSTORMS TO
IMPACT MAINLY KMBS/KFNT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH BASED CU. MORE
SIGNIFICANT TSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORGANIZES AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM CARRYING AN ELEVATED
SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY FOR NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN
DETROIT AREA GIVEN EXPECTED TSTORM ARRIVAL WELL AFTER SUNSET AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR DTW...VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A TSTORM INVOF KDTW 18-00Z WITH
CAPPING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WARRANTING REMOVAL OF PRIOR PROB30
GROUP. MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

A REFINEMENT OF THOUGHTS AFTER PERUSING FRESH ARRIVING HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE RAP, HRRR AND 00Z 3KM
EXPERIMENTAL NAM WHICH APPEAR TO BE SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, NEW INFORMATION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
M59 REMAIN CAPPED THUS INHIBITING PREMATURE OVERTURNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN APPRECIABLE
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK. THE OFT CONSERVATIVE
07Z RAP INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTY BY 22Z. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIME THUS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER WISCONSIN, LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN WELL MIXED/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/70MPH, IF RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST MAINLY INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE AS EARLY AS 21/22Z. FOR THE SAME REASON, TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCLS. THOUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING`S
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL STILL BE CRITICAL, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRONGLY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR 70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONDITIONAL ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. WILL ALLOW TIME FOR UPDATED SPC DAY 1 AND FOR DAY CREW
TO EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE BEFORE ELEVATING
WORDING IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

FINALLY, AS NOTED IN THE ORIGINAL MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSES
LAND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LATEST RAP RUNS
ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY EVOLVE A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YIELDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST OVER THE THUMB PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
18Z SHOULD UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE WAA/STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 021033
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
633 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015


.AVIATION...

STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO AFTN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TSTORMS TO
IMPACT MAINLY KMBS/KFNT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH BASED CU. MORE
SIGNIFICANT TSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORGANIZES AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM CARRYING AN ELEVATED
SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY FOR NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN
DETROIT AREA GIVEN EXPECTED TSTORM ARRIVAL WELL AFTER SUNSET AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR DTW...VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A TSTORM INVOF KDTW 18-00Z WITH
CAPPING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WARRANTING REMOVAL OF PRIOR PROB30
GROUP. MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

A REFINEMENT OF THOUGHTS AFTER PERUSING FRESH ARRIVING HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE RAP, HRRR AND 00Z 3KM
EXPERIMENTAL NAM WHICH APPEAR TO BE SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, NEW INFORMATION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
M59 REMAIN CAPPED THUS INHIBITING PREMATURE OVERTURNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN APPRECIABLE
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK. THE OFT CONSERVATIVE
07Z RAP INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTY BY 22Z. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIME THUS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER WISCONSIN, LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN WELL MIXED/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/70MPH, IF RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST MAINLY INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE AS EARLY AS 21/22Z. FOR THE SAME REASON, TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCLS. THOUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING`S
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL STILL BE CRITICAL, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRONGLY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR 70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONDITIONAL ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. WILL ALLOW TIME FOR UPDATED SPC DAY 1 AND FOR DAY CREW
TO EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE BEFORE ELEVATING
WORDING IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

FINALLY, AS NOTED IN THE ORIGINAL MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSES
LAND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LATEST RAP RUNS
ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY EVOLVE A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YIELDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST OVER THE THUMB PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
18Z SHOULD UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE WAA/STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 020926
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

A REFINEMENT OF THOUGHTS AFTER PERUSING FRESH ARRIVING HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE RAP, HRRR AND 00Z 3KM
EXPERIMENTAL NAM WHICH APPEAR TO BE SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, NEW INFORMATION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
M59 REMAIN CAPPED THUS INHIBITING PREMATURE OVERTURNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN APPRECIABLE
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK. THE OFT CONSERVATIVE
07Z RAP INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTY BY 22Z. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIME THUS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER WISCONSIN, LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN WELL MIXED/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/70MPH, IF RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST MAINLY INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE AS EARLY AS 21/22Z. FOR THE SAME REASON, TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCLS. THOUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING`S
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL STILL BE CRITICAL, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRONGLY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR 70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONDITIONAL ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. WILL ALLOW TIME FOR UPDATED SPC DAY 1 AND FOR DAY CREW
TO EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE BEFORE ELEVATING
WORDING IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

FINALLY, AS NOTED IN THE ORIGINAL MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSES
LAND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LATEST RAP RUNS
ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY EVOLVE A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YIELDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST OVER THE THUMB PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
18Z SHOULD UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE WAA/STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN MORNING INTO SUN AFTERNOON DUE BOTH
TO DIURNAL MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING WSW GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN INFLUX OF INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TIMING OF WHICH
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR DTW...THE TWO MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING METRO WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUX OF INSTABILITY
AND LATE SUN EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 020926
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

A REFINEMENT OF THOUGHTS AFTER PERUSING FRESH ARRIVING HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE RAP, HRRR AND 00Z 3KM
EXPERIMENTAL NAM WHICH APPEAR TO BE SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, NEW INFORMATION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
M59 REMAIN CAPPED THUS INHIBITING PREMATURE OVERTURNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN APPRECIABLE
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK. THE OFT CONSERVATIVE
07Z RAP INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTY BY 22Z. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIME THUS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER WISCONSIN, LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN WELL MIXED/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/70MPH, IF RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST MAINLY INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE AS EARLY AS 21/22Z. FOR THE SAME REASON, TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCLS. THOUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING`S
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL STILL BE CRITICAL, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRONGLY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR 70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONDITIONAL ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. WILL ALLOW TIME FOR UPDATED SPC DAY 1 AND FOR DAY CREW
TO EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE BEFORE ELEVATING
WORDING IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

FINALLY, AS NOTED IN THE ORIGINAL MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSES
LAND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LATEST RAP RUNS
ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY EVOLVE A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YIELDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST OVER THE THUMB PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
18Z SHOULD UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE WAA/STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN MORNING INTO SUN AFTERNOON DUE BOTH
TO DIURNAL MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING WSW GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN INFLUX OF INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TIMING OF WHICH
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR DTW...THE TWO MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING METRO WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUX OF INSTABILITY
AND LATE SUN EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 020834
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MI LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI...TOWARD
OR AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR
TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR
WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT A HUGE PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
IFR CIGS SUNDAY EVENING AT MBL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
SOME GRUNGE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020834
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MI LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI...TOWARD
OR AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR
TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR
WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT A HUGE PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
IFR CIGS SUNDAY EVENING AT MBL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
SOME GRUNGE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 020742
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 020742
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 020742
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 020742
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KGRR 020727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL
MOST LIKELY STAY NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN BRIEFLY VERY GUSTY WINDS IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING... HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
HAIL. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING



000
FXUS63 KGRR 020727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THREATS INCLUDE SOME LARGE HAIL AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z...STARTING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THIS...A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE...AND A FEW
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 21Z AND BEYOND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING CELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW LOWER MI.

MOST HI RES MODELS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z NEAR
LUDINGTON AND PROGRESSING SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 00Z-
04Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ONLY LOOKED BETTER AND BETTER WITH THIS
EVENT...NOW FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE LLJ ALSO LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 50
KNOTS RIGHT OVER US AROUND 00Z.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WE WILL BE IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 (ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO LAN
AND SOUTH) AND SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. SB CAPE
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (THE NSSL WRF IS SHOWING 4000+ J/KG...YIKES).
COMBINED WITH 0-1KM HELICITY READINGS OF 200-300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OUR REGION WILL NOT ONLY BE FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT CAPE
IN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE...AND WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

LOOKING AT THE NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT
TO SEVERE WEATHER. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE PROBABILITY OF 0-1 KM SRH
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROB PLOT
IS SHOWING 60%-80% FROM MKG/BIV TO GRR/AZO. WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE MAY BE NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS AT THAT POINT...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT TRY TO POP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL GIVEN THESE VERY HIGH SRH VALUES.

WITH THE LLJ SOLIDLY 50 KNOTS...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
HI RES MODEL SIM Z PLOTS (IE. NAMDNG...NSSL WRF...AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) SUGGESTS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE. INTERESTINGLY...THE WRF ARW/NMM ARE CONSIDERABLY
LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN IL. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND INSTABILITY FEATURED ALL
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

REGARDING THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION FROM PENTWATER TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE...BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SOME HAIL. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY DELAY
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LWR MI. RAISED POPS THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEYOND THAT FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
TAKES HOLD OF OUR WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL
MOST LIKELY STAY NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN BRIEFLY VERY GUSTY WINDS IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING... HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
HAIL. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ROUGH CHOP ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OVER 6 FEET POSSIBLE. A SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL POSE A HIGH RISK TO
MARINERS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO NW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KMQT 020725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 020725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 020725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 020725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 020725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 020725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KDTX 020652
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN MORNING INTO SUN AFTERNOON DUE BOTH
TO DIURNAL MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING WSW GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN INFLUX OF INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TIMING OF WHICH
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR DTW...THE TWO MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING METRO WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUX OF INSTABILITY
AND LATE SUN EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 020652
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN MORNING INTO SUN AFTERNOON DUE BOTH
TO DIURNAL MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING WSW GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN INFLUX OF INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TIMING OF WHICH
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR DTW...THE TWO MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING METRO WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUX OF INSTABILITY
AND LATE SUN EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 020521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 020521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 020521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 020521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KGRR 020422
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THINGS
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. A ROUND
OF STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

STORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHOWER
REMAINING POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEGINNING
ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON THE SEVERE WX POTENTIAL FOR LATE
SUN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN. THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR ALL OF THE CWFA.

VERY QUIET WEATHER...ALBEIT A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH MISSED THE AREA TO THE
NE...JUST CLIPPING FAR NE CLARE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THOSE SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AT THE NOSE OF A 30-35 KNOT LLJ MOVING IN LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY COMING INTO THE DAKOTAS. WE
ARE EXPECTING THAT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE AS
THEY WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE NOT
REAL STRONG. THESE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THEN SUN MORNING.

WE WILL SEE A CHC OF A FEW STORMS SUN AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL
BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY. THE SHORT WAVE COMING IN EARLY
IN THE MORNING WILL BE EXITING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING
BEHIND THIS. THE LLJ WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO
SUPPLY CONTINUED INSTABILITY...SO STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE TIME FRAME WE ARE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS AFTER 6 PM SUN UNTIL
ABOUT 2 AM MON MORNING. WE WILL SEE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SHORT WAVE
APPROACH THE AREA AROUND 00Z MON FROM THE NW. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A
FAIRLY ROBUST SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING 2000+ J/KG OF MU
CAPE INTO THE AREA TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z MON WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ
OVERHEAD HELPING THIS CAUSE.

MODELS ALL PRETTY MUCH AGREE IN DEVELOPING A SQUALL LINE TO OUR
NW...AND PUSHING IT THROUGH THE CWFA BY ABOUT 06-07Z. THIS LINE WILL
HAVE SOME GOOD 0-3KM SHEAR AVAILABLE TO HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE WITH
THE INSTABILITY. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT 40-50 KNOTS OF WIND
AROUND 2-5K FT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO TAP...TO HELP WITH THE BIGGEST
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALSO INDICATE SOME
DECENT VEERING WITH HEIGHT DUE TO THE LLJ. THIS COULD HELP TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. THE STABLE
LAYER IS WEAK...AND WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT AND FORCING...THE
SEVERE THREAT IS LEGITIMATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES.

STORMS WILL MOVE OUT AFTER 06Z...LEAVING ONLY A CHC AS THE ACTUAL
FRONT FINISHES MOVING THROUGH. WE WILL SEE UPPER TROUGHING BUILD IN
FOR MON AND MON NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHC OF A LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER IN. THE BETTER CHC WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...ABOVE THE JET CORE
WHICH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. COOLER AIR WILL THEN BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRETTY QUIET LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE NOT OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT NO ORGANIZED THREAT APPEARS LIKELY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOW LOOKING LIKE
FRIDAY INSTEAD OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL
MOST LIKELY STAY NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN BRIEFLY VERY GUSTY WINDS IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING... HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
HAIL. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WE WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE EFFECTIVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND CORE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN MORNING. WHILE A LOT OF THIS WILL REMAIN 1-2K FT ABOVE THE
GROUND...WE EXPECT ENOUGH WIND WILL MAKE IT TO THE SFC TO CAUSE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT UP NORTH. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR
STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AS A FAIRLY ROBUST LINE OF STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT VERY LATE SUN NIGHT. WE EXPECT WINDS WILL
PICK UP MONDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME...DEPENDING ON THE TREND OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR MON NIGHT ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WATERSPOUTS. STILL SOME TIME TO EVALUATE THAT CHANCE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MACZKO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KGRR 020422
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THINGS
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. A ROUND
OF STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

STORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHOWER
REMAINING POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEGINNING
ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON THE SEVERE WX POTENTIAL FOR LATE
SUN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN. THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR ALL OF THE CWFA.

VERY QUIET WEATHER...ALBEIT A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH MISSED THE AREA TO THE
NE...JUST CLIPPING FAR NE CLARE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THOSE SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AT THE NOSE OF A 30-35 KNOT LLJ MOVING IN LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY COMING INTO THE DAKOTAS. WE
ARE EXPECTING THAT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE AS
THEY WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE NOT
REAL STRONG. THESE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THEN SUN MORNING.

WE WILL SEE A CHC OF A FEW STORMS SUN AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL
BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY. THE SHORT WAVE COMING IN EARLY
IN THE MORNING WILL BE EXITING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING
BEHIND THIS. THE LLJ WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO
SUPPLY CONTINUED INSTABILITY...SO STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE TIME FRAME WE ARE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS AFTER 6 PM SUN UNTIL
ABOUT 2 AM MON MORNING. WE WILL SEE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SHORT WAVE
APPROACH THE AREA AROUND 00Z MON FROM THE NW. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A
FAIRLY ROBUST SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING 2000+ J/KG OF MU
CAPE INTO THE AREA TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z MON WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ
OVERHEAD HELPING THIS CAUSE.

MODELS ALL PRETTY MUCH AGREE IN DEVELOPING A SQUALL LINE TO OUR
NW...AND PUSHING IT THROUGH THE CWFA BY ABOUT 06-07Z. THIS LINE WILL
HAVE SOME GOOD 0-3KM SHEAR AVAILABLE TO HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE WITH
THE INSTABILITY. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT 40-50 KNOTS OF WIND
AROUND 2-5K FT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO TAP...TO HELP WITH THE BIGGEST
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALSO INDICATE SOME
DECENT VEERING WITH HEIGHT DUE TO THE LLJ. THIS COULD HELP TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. THE STABLE
LAYER IS WEAK...AND WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT AND FORCING...THE
SEVERE THREAT IS LEGITIMATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES.

STORMS WILL MOVE OUT AFTER 06Z...LEAVING ONLY A CHC AS THE ACTUAL
FRONT FINISHES MOVING THROUGH. WE WILL SEE UPPER TROUGHING BUILD IN
FOR MON AND MON NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHC OF A LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER IN. THE BETTER CHC WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...ABOVE THE JET CORE
WHICH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. COOLER AIR WILL THEN BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRETTY QUIET LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE NOT OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT NO ORGANIZED THREAT APPEARS LIKELY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOW LOOKING LIKE
FRIDAY INSTEAD OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL
MOST LIKELY STAY NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN BRIEFLY VERY GUSTY WINDS IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING... HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
HAIL. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WE WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE EFFECTIVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND CORE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN MORNING. WHILE A LOT OF THIS WILL REMAIN 1-2K FT ABOVE THE
GROUND...WE EXPECT ENOUGH WIND WILL MAKE IT TO THE SFC TO CAUSE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT UP NORTH. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR
STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AS A FAIRLY ROBUST LINE OF STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT VERY LATE SUN NIGHT. WE EXPECT WINDS WILL
PICK UP MONDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME...DEPENDING ON THE TREND OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR MON NIGHT ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WATERSPOUTS. STILL SOME TIME TO EVALUATE THAT CHANCE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER... BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF
A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE LARGER
RIVER SYSTEMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ROAD PONDING AND RISES OF SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS...
PRIMARILY IF THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MACZKO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER. IN THE PAST
HOUR THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ACTIVE...WHILE CONVECTION
A BIT TO THE SOUTH HAS FADED. REGARDLESS...WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND AS SURFACE RIDGING
TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. BUT THIS FLOW NEVER REALLY
GETS CRANKING TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS REACH NEAR 30KT LATE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA/CENTRAL WI...BUT BY THEN THOSE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ALMOST WESTERLY. THIS IS FAR FROM AN IDEAL SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN
MCS INTO THE REGION LATE. THERE IS ALSO ALMOST NO CONVECTION TO
SPEAK OF UPSTREAM...AT LEAST NOT YET. WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SUPERIOR...AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DOME OF COLD MARINE AIR (EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BUOY AIR TEMP NEVER HIT 50F TODAY) ACTS AS A PSUEDO-WARM
FRONT.

ACTIVITY ON SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP SE-WARD WITH TIME WITH THE
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...AND REMAINS ON PACE TO PERHAPS BRING RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER (CHIPPEWA CO ESPECIALLY) AFTER 2AM. ALSO...DO
STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO GET GOING WEST OF LAKE MI AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT THAT WAY. BUT THIS ALSO MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 2 AM. THIS COULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH SOME
SHRA/TSRA INTO NW LOWER VERY LATE...AS THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATES. HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO DECREASE POPS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MI LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI...TOWARD
OR AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR
TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR
WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT A HUGE PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
IFR CIGS SUNDAY EVENING AT MBL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
SOME GRUNGE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER. IN THE PAST
HOUR THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ACTIVE...WHILE CONVECTION
A BIT TO THE SOUTH HAS FADED. REGARDLESS...WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND AS SURFACE RIDGING
TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. BUT THIS FLOW NEVER REALLY
GETS CRANKING TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS REACH NEAR 30KT LATE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA/CENTRAL WI...BUT BY THEN THOSE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ALMOST WESTERLY. THIS IS FAR FROM AN IDEAL SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN
MCS INTO THE REGION LATE. THERE IS ALSO ALMOST NO CONVECTION TO
SPEAK OF UPSTREAM...AT LEAST NOT YET. WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SUPERIOR...AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DOME OF COLD MARINE AIR (EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BUOY AIR TEMP NEVER HIT 50F TODAY) ACTS AS A PSUEDO-WARM
FRONT.

ACTIVITY ON SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP SE-WARD WITH TIME WITH THE
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...AND REMAINS ON PACE TO PERHAPS BRING RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER (CHIPPEWA CO ESPECIALLY) AFTER 2AM. ALSO...DO
STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO GET GOING WEST OF LAKE MI AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT THAT WAY. BUT THIS ALSO MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 2 AM. THIS COULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH SOME
SHRA/TSRA INTO NW LOWER VERY LATE...AS THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATES. HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO DECREASE POPS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MI LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI...TOWARD
OR AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR
TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR
WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT A HUGE PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
IFR CIGS SUNDAY EVENING AT MBL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
SOME GRUNGE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 020359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER. IN THE PAST
HOUR THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ACTIVE...WHILE CONVECTION
A BIT TO THE SOUTH HAS FADED. REGARDLESS...WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND AS SURFACE RIDGING
TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. BUT THIS FLOW NEVER REALLY
GETS CRANKING TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS REACH NEAR 30KT LATE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA/CENTRAL WI...BUT BY THEN THOSE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ALMOST WESTERLY. THIS IS FAR FROM AN IDEAL SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN
MCS INTO THE REGION LATE. THERE IS ALSO ALMOST NO CONVECTION TO
SPEAK OF UPSTREAM...AT LEAST NOT YET. WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SUPERIOR...AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DOME OF COLD MARINE AIR (EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BUOY AIR TEMP NEVER HIT 50F TODAY) ACTS AS A PSUEDO-WARM
FRONT.

ACTIVITY ON SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP SE-WARD WITH TIME WITH THE
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...AND REMAINS ON PACE TO PERHAPS BRING RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER (CHIPPEWA CO ESPECIALLY) AFTER 2AM. ALSO...DO
STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO GET GOING WEST OF LAKE MI AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT THAT WAY. BUT THIS ALSO MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 2 AM. THIS COULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH SOME
SHRA/TSRA INTO NW LOWER VERY LATE...AS THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATES. HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO DECREASE POPS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MI LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI...TOWARD
OR AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR
TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR
WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT A HUGE PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
IFR CIGS SUNDAY EVENING AT MBL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
SOME GRUNGE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 020359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER. IN THE PAST
HOUR THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ACTIVE...WHILE CONVECTION
A BIT TO THE SOUTH HAS FADED. REGARDLESS...WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND AS SURFACE RIDGING
TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. BUT THIS FLOW NEVER REALLY
GETS CRANKING TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS REACH NEAR 30KT LATE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA/CENTRAL WI...BUT BY THEN THOSE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ALMOST WESTERLY. THIS IS FAR FROM AN IDEAL SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN
MCS INTO THE REGION LATE. THERE IS ALSO ALMOST NO CONVECTION TO
SPEAK OF UPSTREAM...AT LEAST NOT YET. WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SUPERIOR...AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DOME OF COLD MARINE AIR (EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BUOY AIR TEMP NEVER HIT 50F TODAY) ACTS AS A PSUEDO-WARM
FRONT.

ACTIVITY ON SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP SE-WARD WITH TIME WITH THE
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...AND REMAINS ON PACE TO PERHAPS BRING RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER (CHIPPEWA CO ESPECIALLY) AFTER 2AM. ALSO...DO
STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO GET GOING WEST OF LAKE MI AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT THAT WAY. BUT THIS ALSO MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 2 AM. THIS COULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH SOME
SHRA/TSRA INTO NW LOWER VERY LATE...AS THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATES. HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO DECREASE POPS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MI LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI...TOWARD
OR AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR
TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR
WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT A HUGE PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
IFR CIGS SUNDAY EVENING AT MBL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
SOME GRUNGE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 020359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER. IN THE PAST
HOUR THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ACTIVE...WHILE CONVECTION
A BIT TO THE SOUTH HAS FADED. REGARDLESS...WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND AS SURFACE RIDGING
TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. BUT THIS FLOW NEVER REALLY
GETS CRANKING TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS REACH NEAR 30KT LATE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA/CENTRAL WI...BUT BY THEN THOSE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ALMOST WESTERLY. THIS IS FAR FROM AN IDEAL SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN
MCS INTO THE REGION LATE. THERE IS ALSO ALMOST NO CONVECTION TO
SPEAK OF UPSTREAM...AT LEAST NOT YET. WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SUPERIOR...AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DOME OF COLD MARINE AIR (EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BUOY AIR TEMP NEVER HIT 50F TODAY) ACTS AS A PSUEDO-WARM
FRONT.

ACTIVITY ON SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP SE-WARD WITH TIME WITH THE
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...AND REMAINS ON PACE TO PERHAPS BRING RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER (CHIPPEWA CO ESPECIALLY) AFTER 2AM. ALSO...DO
STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO GET GOING WEST OF LAKE MI AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT THAT WAY. BUT THIS ALSO MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 2 AM. THIS COULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH SOME
SHRA/TSRA INTO NW LOWER VERY LATE...AS THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATES. HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO DECREASE POPS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MI LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI...TOWARD
OR AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR
TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR
WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT A HUGE PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
IFR CIGS SUNDAY EVENING AT MBL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
SOME GRUNGE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR



000
FXUS63 KDTX 020347
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015


.AVIATION...

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN MORNING INTO SUN AFTERNOON DUE BOTH
TO DIURNAL MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING WSW GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN INFLUX OF INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TIMING OF WHICH
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR DTW...THE TWO MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING METRO WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUX OF INSTABILITY
AND LATE SUN EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE WORKED OUT AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS FOCUSED FROM
NEAR THE SAGINAW VALLEY ESE INTO THE THUMB AND ACTIVITY HAS TO THIS
POINT REMAINS CONFINED TO THIS PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY STRAY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO THE SW OF THIS MAIN AREA WILL BE TRIVIAL AND
ALL ACTIVITY WILL FADE RATHER QUICKLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS BOTH LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE AND MINOR INSTABILITY FROM DAY
TIME HEATING ARE LOST.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS SW WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
SETTLE INTO THE 50 TO 55F RANGE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PLEASANT NIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE LOWS MAY
OCCUR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN USUAL AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT DOES
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO SOME EXTENT FAIRLY EARLY IN THE MORNING.

LONG TERM...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SINKS SOUTHWARD. A STREAM OF SMALLER SHORTWAVES
ALIGNED ALONG A JET AXIS STRETCHING BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CANADA WILL ALSO FEED INTO AND POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN THIS WAVE AS
IT DROPS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS TROUGH TO DEEPEN
OR EVEN CLOSE OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS IT BECOMES CENTERED UNDER
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND MORE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
UPPER JET.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND STREAMING
WELL INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MOISTURE
GETTING SCOOPED UP BY THE SYSTEM...AND POOLING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. LATEST RUNS SHOW PW VALUES IN THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE...EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA FIRST
TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT AND
INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED FOR THIS ROUND (IF IT OCCURS)...AND WITH THE BETTER CORE OF
WINDS STILL UPSTREAM...THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THOUGHT IS THAT WE WILL THEN SEE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY MID-DAY UNDER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND WHILE
INSTABILITY RECOVERS FROM EARLY CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET (50-60 KNOTS) SHOULD SURGE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALLOW 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS BY EVENING. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE TOO MUCH AND
KEEP A CAP OVER THE AREA...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL
DIVIDED ON THIS BUT MAY ALSO BE EXHIBITING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE EVENING SHOULD ALIGN NICELY WITH
FORCING HOWEVER (FRONT..STRONG FGEN...MID-LEVEL PVA...RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE STRENGTH AND IF WE CAN GET A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM GOING. PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS FOR THE EVENING ARE TO
SEE A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT UPSTREAM OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING (STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODELS HOWEVER THAT HAVE TO BE WATCHED)
.WITH THIS LINE THEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...GIVEN STRONG INFLOW
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH. COMBINED WITH SHEAR
VALUES...THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
TORNADO THREAT WITH LCL HEIGHTS DROPPING OVERNIGHT WHILE 0-1KM SHEAR
INCREASE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...BUT FAST
MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP FLOOD POTENTIAL LOCALIZED.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MINOR
INSTABILITY INDUCED BY THE TROUGH AND AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING
COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OR TWO
.ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB AREAS. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE
ENERGY LEFTOVER TO SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AMPLE
SUN AMID DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS. CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING THURSDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF FRIDAY`S WEATHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS TOO FAR OUT TO
PUT ANY FAITH IN TIMING OR IMPACT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
HITTING BELOW AVERAGE ALL WEEK WITH 70S PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE HURON THIS
EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS...BUT ATTAIN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS...UP TO 30 KNOTS...OVER SAGINAW BAY WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL FUNNEL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
EARLY ON MONDAY. SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER LAKE
HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
50 KNOTS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020347
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015


.AVIATION...

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN MORNING INTO SUN AFTERNOON DUE BOTH
TO DIURNAL MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING WSW GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN INFLUX OF INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TIMING OF WHICH
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR DTW...THE TWO MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING METRO WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUX OF INSTABILITY
AND LATE SUN EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE WORKED OUT AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS FOCUSED FROM
NEAR THE SAGINAW VALLEY ESE INTO THE THUMB AND ACTIVITY HAS TO THIS
POINT REMAINS CONFINED TO THIS PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY STRAY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO THE SW OF THIS MAIN AREA WILL BE TRIVIAL AND
ALL ACTIVITY WILL FADE RATHER QUICKLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS BOTH LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE AND MINOR INSTABILITY FROM DAY
TIME HEATING ARE LOST.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS SW WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
SETTLE INTO THE 50 TO 55F RANGE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PLEASANT NIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE LOWS MAY
OCCUR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN USUAL AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT DOES
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO SOME EXTENT FAIRLY EARLY IN THE MORNING.

LONG TERM...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SINKS SOUTHWARD. A STREAM OF SMALLER SHORTWAVES
ALIGNED ALONG A JET AXIS STRETCHING BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CANADA WILL ALSO FEED INTO AND POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN THIS WAVE AS
IT DROPS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS TROUGH TO DEEPEN
OR EVEN CLOSE OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS IT BECOMES CENTERED UNDER
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND MORE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
UPPER JET.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND STREAMING
WELL INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MOISTURE
GETTING SCOOPED UP BY THE SYSTEM...AND POOLING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. LATEST RUNS SHOW PW VALUES IN THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE...EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA FIRST
TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT AND
INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED FOR THIS ROUND (IF IT OCCURS)...AND WITH THE BETTER CORE OF
WINDS STILL UPSTREAM...THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THOUGHT IS THAT WE WILL THEN SEE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY MID-DAY UNDER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND WHILE
INSTABILITY RECOVERS FROM EARLY CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET (50-60 KNOTS) SHOULD SURGE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALLOW 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS BY EVENING. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE TOO MUCH AND
KEEP A CAP OVER THE AREA...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL
DIVIDED ON THIS BUT MAY ALSO BE EXHIBITING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE EVENING SHOULD ALIGN NICELY WITH
FORCING HOWEVER (FRONT..STRONG FGEN...MID-LEVEL PVA...RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE STRENGTH AND IF WE CAN GET A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM GOING. PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS FOR THE EVENING ARE TO
SEE A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT UPSTREAM OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING (STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODELS HOWEVER THAT HAVE TO BE WATCHED)
.WITH THIS LINE THEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...GIVEN STRONG INFLOW
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH. COMBINED WITH SHEAR
VALUES...THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
TORNADO THREAT WITH LCL HEIGHTS DROPPING OVERNIGHT WHILE 0-1KM SHEAR
INCREASE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...BUT FAST
MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP FLOOD POTENTIAL LOCALIZED.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MINOR
INSTABILITY INDUCED BY THE TROUGH AND AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING
COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OR TWO
.ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB AREAS. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE
ENERGY LEFTOVER TO SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AMPLE
SUN AMID DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS. CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING THURSDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF FRIDAY`S WEATHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS TOO FAR OUT TO
PUT ANY FAITH IN TIMING OR IMPACT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
HITTING BELOW AVERAGE ALL WEEK WITH 70S PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE HURON THIS
EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS...BUT ATTAIN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS...UP TO 30 KNOTS...OVER SAGINAW BAY WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL FUNNEL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
EARLY ON MONDAY. SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER LAKE
HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
50 KNOTS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020347
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015


.AVIATION...

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN MORNING INTO SUN AFTERNOON DUE BOTH
TO DIURNAL MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING WSW GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN INFLUX OF INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TIMING OF WHICH
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR DTW...THE TWO MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING METRO WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUX OF INSTABILITY
AND LATE SUN EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE WORKED OUT AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS FOCUSED FROM
NEAR THE SAGINAW VALLEY ESE INTO THE THUMB AND ACTIVITY HAS TO THIS
POINT REMAINS CONFINED TO THIS PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY STRAY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO THE SW OF THIS MAIN AREA WILL BE TRIVIAL AND
ALL ACTIVITY WILL FADE RATHER QUICKLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS BOTH LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE AND MINOR INSTABILITY FROM DAY
TIME HEATING ARE LOST.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS SW WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
SETTLE INTO THE 50 TO 55F RANGE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PLEASANT NIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE LOWS MAY
OCCUR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN USUAL AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT DOES
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO SOME EXTENT FAIRLY EARLY IN THE MORNING.

LONG TERM...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SINKS SOUTHWARD. A STREAM OF SMALLER SHORTWAVES
ALIGNED ALONG A JET AXIS STRETCHING BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CANADA WILL ALSO FEED INTO AND POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN THIS WAVE AS
IT DROPS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS TROUGH TO DEEPEN
OR EVEN CLOSE OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS IT BECOMES CENTERED UNDER
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND MORE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
UPPER JET.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND STREAMING
WELL INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MOISTURE
GETTING SCOOPED UP BY THE SYSTEM...AND POOLING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. LATEST RUNS SHOW PW VALUES IN THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE...EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA FIRST
TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT AND
INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED FOR THIS ROUND (IF IT OCCURS)...AND WITH THE BETTER CORE OF
WINDS STILL UPSTREAM...THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THOUGHT IS THAT WE WILL THEN SEE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY MID-DAY UNDER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND WHILE
INSTABILITY RECOVERS FROM EARLY CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET (50-60 KNOTS) SHOULD SURGE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALLOW 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS BY EVENING. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE TOO MUCH AND
KEEP A CAP OVER THE AREA...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL
DIVIDED ON THIS BUT MAY ALSO BE EXHIBITING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE EVENING SHOULD ALIGN NICELY WITH
FORCING HOWEVER (FRONT..STRONG FGEN...MID-LEVEL PVA...RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE STRENGTH AND IF WE CAN GET A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM GOING. PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS FOR THE EVENING ARE TO
SEE A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT UPSTREAM OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING (STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODELS HOWEVER THAT HAVE TO BE WATCHED)
.WITH THIS LINE THEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...GIVEN STRONG INFLOW
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH. COMBINED WITH SHEAR
VALUES...THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
TORNADO THREAT WITH LCL HEIGHTS DROPPING OVERNIGHT WHILE 0-1KM SHEAR
INCREASE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...BUT FAST
MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP FLOOD POTENTIAL LOCALIZED.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MINOR
INSTABILITY INDUCED BY THE TROUGH AND AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING
COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OR TWO
.ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB AREAS. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE
ENERGY LEFTOVER TO SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AMPLE
SUN AMID DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS. CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING THURSDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF FRIDAY`S WEATHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS TOO FAR OUT TO
PUT ANY FAITH IN TIMING OR IMPACT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
HITTING BELOW AVERAGE ALL WEEK WITH 70S PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE HURON THIS
EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS...BUT ATTAIN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS...UP TO 30 KNOTS...OVER SAGINAW BAY WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL FUNNEL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
EARLY ON MONDAY. SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER LAKE
HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
50 KNOTS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020347
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015


.AVIATION...

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN MORNING INTO SUN AFTERNOON DUE BOTH
TO DIURNAL MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING WSW GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN INFLUX OF INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TIMING OF WHICH
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR DTW...THE TWO MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING METRO WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUX OF INSTABILITY
AND LATE SUN EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE WORKED OUT AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS FOCUSED FROM
NEAR THE SAGINAW VALLEY ESE INTO THE THUMB AND ACTIVITY HAS TO THIS
POINT REMAINS CONFINED TO THIS PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY STRAY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO THE SW OF THIS MAIN AREA WILL BE TRIVIAL AND
ALL ACTIVITY WILL FADE RATHER QUICKLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS BOTH LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE AND MINOR INSTABILITY FROM DAY
TIME HEATING ARE LOST.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS SW WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
SETTLE INTO THE 50 TO 55F RANGE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PLEASANT NIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE LOWS MAY
OCCUR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN USUAL AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT DOES
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO SOME EXTENT FAIRLY EARLY IN THE MORNING.

LONG TERM...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SINKS SOUTHWARD. A STREAM OF SMALLER SHORTWAVES
ALIGNED ALONG A JET AXIS STRETCHING BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CANADA WILL ALSO FEED INTO AND POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN THIS WAVE AS
IT DROPS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS TROUGH TO DEEPEN
OR EVEN CLOSE OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS IT BECOMES CENTERED UNDER
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND MORE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
UPPER JET.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND STREAMING
WELL INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MOISTURE
GETTING SCOOPED UP BY THE SYSTEM...AND POOLING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. LATEST RUNS SHOW PW VALUES IN THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE...EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA FIRST
TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT AND
INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED FOR THIS ROUND (IF IT OCCURS)...AND WITH THE BETTER CORE OF
WINDS STILL UPSTREAM...THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THOUGHT IS THAT WE WILL THEN SEE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY MID-DAY UNDER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND WHILE
INSTABILITY RECOVERS FROM EARLY CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET (50-60 KNOTS) SHOULD SURGE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALLOW 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS BY EVENING. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE TOO MUCH AND
KEEP A CAP OVER THE AREA...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL
DIVIDED ON THIS BUT MAY ALSO BE EXHIBITING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE EVENING SHOULD ALIGN NICELY WITH
FORCING HOWEVER (FRONT..STRONG FGEN...MID-LEVEL PVA...RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE STRENGTH AND IF WE CAN GET A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM GOING. PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS FOR THE EVENING ARE TO
SEE A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT UPSTREAM OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING (STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODELS HOWEVER THAT HAVE TO BE WATCHED)
.WITH THIS LINE THEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...GIVEN STRONG INFLOW
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH. COMBINED WITH SHEAR
VALUES...THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
TORNADO THREAT WITH LCL HEIGHTS DROPPING OVERNIGHT WHILE 0-1KM SHEAR
INCREASE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...BUT FAST
MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP FLOOD POTENTIAL LOCALIZED.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MINOR
INSTABILITY INDUCED BY THE TROUGH AND AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING
COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OR TWO
.ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB AREAS. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE
ENERGY LEFTOVER TO SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AMPLE
SUN AMID DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS. CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING THURSDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF FRIDAY`S WEATHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS TOO FAR OUT TO
PUT ANY FAITH IN TIMING OR IMPACT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
HITTING BELOW AVERAGE ALL WEEK WITH 70S PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE HURON THIS
EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS...BUT ATTAIN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS...UP TO 30 KNOTS...OVER SAGINAW BAY WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL FUNNEL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
EARLY ON MONDAY. SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER LAKE
HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
50 KNOTS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020137
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER. IN THE PAST
HOUR THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ACTIVE...WHILE CONVECTION
A BIT TO THE SOUTH HAS FADED. REGARDLESS...WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND AS SURFACE RIDGING
TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. BUT THIS FLOW NEVER REALLY
GETS CRANKING TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS REACH NEAR 30KT LATE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA/CENTRAL WI...BUT BY THEN THOSE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ALMOST WESTERLY. THIS IS FAR FROM AN IDEAL SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN
MCS INTO THE REGION LATE. THERE IS ALSO ALMOST NO CONVECTION TO
SPEAK OF UPSTREAM...AT LEAST NOT YET. WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SUPERIOR...AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DOME OF COLD MARINE AIR (EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BUOY AIR TEMP NEVER HIT 50F TODAY) ACTS AS A PSUEDO-WARM
FRONT.

ACTIVITY ON SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP SE-WARD WITH TIME WITH THE
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...AND REMAINS ON PACE TO PERHAPS BRING RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER (CHIPPEWA CO ESPECIALLY) AFTER 2AM. ALSO...DO
STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO GET GOING WEST OF LAKE MI AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT THAT WAY. BUT THIS ALSO MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 2 AM. THIS COULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH SOME
SHRA/TSRA INTO NW LOWER VERY LATE...AS THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATES. HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO DECREASE POPS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MI
LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD REACH NORTHERN LOWER MI AT OR A BIT AFTER
DAWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY
NARROW WINDOW FOR TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA
MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 020137
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER. IN THE PAST
HOUR THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ACTIVE...WHILE CONVECTION
A BIT TO THE SOUTH HAS FADED. REGARDLESS...WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND AS SURFACE RIDGING
TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. BUT THIS FLOW NEVER REALLY
GETS CRANKING TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS REACH NEAR 30KT LATE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA/CENTRAL WI...BUT BY THEN THOSE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ALMOST WESTERLY. THIS IS FAR FROM AN IDEAL SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN
MCS INTO THE REGION LATE. THERE IS ALSO ALMOST NO CONVECTION TO
SPEAK OF UPSTREAM...AT LEAST NOT YET. WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SUPERIOR...AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DOME OF COLD MARINE AIR (EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BUOY AIR TEMP NEVER HIT 50F TODAY) ACTS AS A PSUEDO-WARM
FRONT.

ACTIVITY ON SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP SE-WARD WITH TIME WITH THE
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...AND REMAINS ON PACE TO PERHAPS BRING RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER (CHIPPEWA CO ESPECIALLY) AFTER 2AM. ALSO...DO
STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO GET GOING WEST OF LAKE MI AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT THAT WAY. BUT THIS ALSO MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 2 AM. THIS COULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH SOME
SHRA/TSRA INTO NW LOWER VERY LATE...AS THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATES. HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO DECREASE POPS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MI
LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD REACH NORTHERN LOWER MI AT OR A BIT AFTER
DAWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY
NARROW WINDOW FOR TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA
MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KMQT 012348
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASS OVER
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND
PROBABLY SOME TS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT IF THERE IS BRIEF MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
SHORT TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 012348
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASS OVER
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND
PROBABLY SOME TS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT IF THERE IS BRIEF MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
SHORT TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 012348
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASS OVER
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND
PROBABLY SOME TS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT IF THERE IS BRIEF MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
SHORT TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 012348
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASS OVER
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND
PROBABLY SOME TS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT IF THERE IS BRIEF MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
SHORT TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 012348
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASS OVER
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND
PROBABLY SOME TS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT IF THERE IS BRIEF MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
SHORT TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



000
FXUS63 KMQT 012348
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASS OVER
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND
PROBABLY SOME TS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT IF THERE IS BRIEF MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
SHORT TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KAPX 012339
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MI
LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD REACH NORTHERN LOWER MI AT OR A BIT AFTER
DAWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY
NARROW WINDOW FOR TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA
MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 012339
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MI
LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD REACH NORTHERN LOWER MI AT OR A BIT AFTER
DAWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY
NARROW WINDOW FOR TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA
MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 012339
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MI
LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD REACH NORTHERN LOWER MI AT OR A BIT AFTER
DAWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY
NARROW WINDOW FOR TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA
MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 012339
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE