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000
FXUS63 KMQT 311201
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
801 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
WHICH ORIGINATED IN NRN CANADA NOW DIVING SOUTH THROUGH NRN WI. 1011
MB SFC LOW PRES ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON WHILE 1039 MB SFC HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING OVER ERN ND. THE
RESULTING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS GENERATED NORTH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND TO 35 KNOTS OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. COLD AIR FLOODING INTO THE
AREA ON THE HEELS OF THESE NORTH WINDS HAVE LOWERED 8H TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -12C AND HAVE HELPED SUSTAINED WIND PARALLEL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE STRONG WINDS HAVE CARRIED THE HEAVIER LES
BANDS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE BEST RETURNS (GREATER
THAN 30 DBZ) LOCATED FROM HERMAN AND THREE LAKES IN BARAGA COUNTY TO
REPUBLIC AND ISHPEMING TO NEAR GWINN IN MQT COUNTY. THE HIGHEST
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTED THUS FAR WAS IN WAKEFIELD
WITH FIVE INCHES...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OTHER
LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN U.P SAW SIMILAR AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
PRECONDITIONING NOTED OFF LAKE NIPIGON ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EFFECTIVELY LENGTHENING OVERWATER FETCH. ACCUMULATION CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

TODAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 40 KTS AND FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND
DIRECTION TO NEAR 10 KFT ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC/CONVERGENT FLOW
HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH OF LES BANDS OVER
BARAGA AND WRN MQT COUNTIES AS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT LES BANDS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
THROUGH LATE MORNING HRS AS FLOW BCMS MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME
AND STRONG DNVA...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOC WITH BUILDING RDG TO THE
WEST EFFECTIVELY LOWERS INVERSION HGTS TO 5KFT OR LOWER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL WE SEE GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS MORNING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY WITH LAKE DELTA-T 18-19C ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LES ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SO WL MAINTAIN GOING LES ADVISORIES INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S UNDER COLD
AIRMASS.AND NORTH WINDS/CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN
ADVANCE OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN
PLAINS IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI
BY 12Z SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN
BELTS ACRS THE NCNTRL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND
THE SUB INVRN MOIST LAYER WARMS ABV -10C AND THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME
SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E
HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO
THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSER
TO BIAS CORRECTED REG GEM WITH 10-15F READINGS COMMON OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BDR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A SHARP
CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY/BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM. SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF REDEVELOPS...BUT PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN BLO NORMAL
TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO NEAR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT
WEEK AS ERN TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
THAT LEADS INTO THE ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR N AMERICA WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE
ANOMALY DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
ARCTIC OCEAN. AT LOWER LATITUDES...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS FCST
ACROSS THE CONUS...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIR WILL DUMP S
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CFSV2 RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU EARLY AND MID NOV...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.

BEGINNING SAT...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX AS PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM WRN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING TO ERN UPPER MI BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THICKER CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. UNDER A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE...TEMPS OVER
THE W WILL REBOUND ABOVE 40F AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPS OVER THE E WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S AS RETURN FLOW REALLY
DOESN`T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL EVENING.

HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME SAT NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BE
MUCH TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20F WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E AS THERE WILL
BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPS AOA 30F.
UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S
EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING TO 900-875MB. HOWEVER...GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER. ALTHOUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERN.

ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 30S.

MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM FASTER
THAN THE SRN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY GET SHUNTED E BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER LAKES. THUS...AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
RIBBON OF PCPN WILL PASS MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. SO...BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING FROM UPPER JET STREAK MAY WORK TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP PCPN BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE. IN THE END...
THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3 TO -5C BEHIND FRONT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FAR W LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.

WED/THU...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. SINCE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE WAVE IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS FCST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WRN TAF SITES HAVE ALLOWED PREVAILING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE N UPSLOPE FLOW AT
SAW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CEILINGS
WILL BE MVFR BUT WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FM NORTH WINDS AOA 30
KNOTS VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY GO TO IFR. N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 20KTS LATE AFTERNOON AT KSAW. AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN
FROM THE W...DRIER AIR WILL BRING CONDITIONS BACK UP TO VFR AT KSAW LATE
IN THE DAY. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WITH PRES RISE MAX SAGGING SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THE LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVING SOUTH WITH
TIME TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT N GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE THIS
MORNING WEST HALF AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST HALF AND THEN CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT
OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. LOOK FOR W WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30
KTS TUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>006-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ004>006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ248-265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>247-264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     240>242-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS






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000
FXUS63 KGRR 311145
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
745 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND COLD AIR WILL RUSH
IN. RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDY AND COLD HALLOWEEN WEATHER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS WISCONSIN
AT 07Z SHOW GUSTS FROM 25 TO 32 KNOTS IN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THIS AREA WILL BE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY
WHEN SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
REACH THE SFC.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TODAY. A BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATTM WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS BACK IN WISCONSIN AND THE MICHIGAN
UPPER PENINSULA. THESE SHOULD FILL IN THIS MORNING AS SHARP UPPER
TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND H5 LOW CUTS OFF.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDER THREAT TODAY IS DEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT
FROM THE FORECAST...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW ANY SFC HEATING
TO PRODUCE SOME UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. SO THERE COULD BE SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS OF SNOW OR GRAUPEL THAT WOULD WHITEN THE GROUND IN
A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH GROUND UP NORTH.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FLOW
GOES NORTH AND NORTHEAST. QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER TO FOLLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WE ARE WATCHING A COUPLE OF POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT COULD
PRODUCING MINOR IMPACTS TO THE AREA. ONE COMES IN DURING THE MON
NIGHT AND TUE TIME FRAME...AND THE OTHER COMES IN DURING THE WED
NIGHT AND THU TIME FRAME.

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT QUIET WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA...WE WILL SEE
THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE WRN U.S. COAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...AND MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY ON TUE.
THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A DECENT SHOT OF SOME RAINFALL.

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WX THEN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL COME WED NIGHT
AND THU. A JET STREAK COMING IN FROM OFF OF THE PACIFIC WILL HELP TO
DIG ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS FAR
SOUTH...AND WILL NOT HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF IT UNTIL THE
TROUGH IS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM JUSTIFIES HAVING A CHC OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE... HOWEVER THE CHCS WILL BE KEPT LOW FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF IFR INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORM PULLS AWAY AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 35
KNOTS OR GREATER AT TIMES TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING. EXPECT NORTH GALES ALONG THE
NEARSHORE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK
DECREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES AND CONDITIONS BECOMING FAIRLY CALM BY
SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
THE RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO






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000
FXUS63 KDTX 311100
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
700 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT PREFRONTAL RAINFALL HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH
THE DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A LIGHT FOG
RESTRICTION WILL HOLD BETWEEN THE PREFRONTAL RAIN AND THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF. HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED WITH FROPA ALONG WITH DEVELOPING WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL PASS KMBS AROUND 15Z AND KDTW AROUND 20Z. COLD
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT
RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS OR HIGHER. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW AS COLD AIR INFILTRATES FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.


FOR DTW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY, BUT A MORE
CONCERTED TURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 20Z. MIXING OF LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE AFTER 01Z. NO ACCUMULATION.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN AFTER 01Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS A POTENT PV
ANOMALY EMBEDDED WITHIN AGGRESSIVELY DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES TODAY. A WEAK 1012MB SURFACE LOW IS EVIDENT WITHIN
THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON,
BUT WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ONTARIO PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 07Z, WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE BANDING
ARE OBSERVED OVER WESTERN LOWER. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
DIGGING SHORTWAVE. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CONTINUED DYNAMIC SUPPORT
TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF WARM
ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.

A SECONDARY FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY BE
DRIVEN BY SFC-500MB LAYER FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT. UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA IS
ALREADY EVIDENT THIS MORNING, BUT WITH MODEL PROGS INDICATING A
NOTEWORTHY TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG WITH ADDED
DAYTIME INSTABILITY, A SOLID INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR FLINT AND POINTS SOUTHEAST, INCLUDING METRO
DETROIT.

IN ADDITION, A MODERATE WIND FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND THE
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS. AN ADDED COMPONENT OF SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC DESCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA CENTERED WITHIN A COUPLE
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 21Z WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED POP OF WIND THAT
MAY TOP OUT AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS. THIS BAND OF ENHANCED GUSTINESS
WILL WORK SOUTHEAST FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY AROUND 19Z TO DETROIT
METRO AROUND 23Z. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER
GROWTH, ONGOING PRECIP, UNIMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT, AND A
MARGINAL-AT-BEST SYSTEM RELATIVE SETUP PRECLUDE WIND ADVISORY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION IS HURON COUNTY WHERE WINDS
COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KNOTS
ALONG THE SHORELINE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SHORES OF INNER SAGINAW BAY,
BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY ATTM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE
HURON WILL FALL TO AROUND -6C, MODERATE VALUES, BUT IMPRESSIVE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THAT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD YIELD AN
EQUALLY HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE. AS A RESULT, CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE APPROPRIATE AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS
COLD AIR MAKES INROADS INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SUNSET, A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 0C. WHILE ALL AREAS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AT
LEAST A FEW FLAKES OVERNIGHT, LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE HURON MAY
SEE A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION IN SPITE OF THE ANTECEDENT WET
SURFACE. WARM ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE REMAINS A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY
OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS, WHERE LOWS MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 35-37F
AND PTYPE WILL STRUGGLE TO CHANGE OVER. CONVERSELY, LOCATIONS WEST
OF US-23 WILL REMAIN REMOVED FROM THE LAKE PLUME AND THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER 20S LOWS AND A STOUT WIND FIELD WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER TEENS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CORE OF COLDEST LOW LEVEL AIR /850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -10C/ WILL
ROTATE ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON SAT MORNING UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS EXCEEDING 1500 FT. EVEN WITH SOME
HEAT FLUX OFF THE LAKE...THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR /1000-850MB
THICKNESSES DROPPING BELOW 1290M/ SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT IF THE DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO DEPART...THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN THUMB. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR. LIGHTER INTENSITY SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR
FLURRIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND. AN AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
DRY AIR...BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER INVERSION BASES DUE TO
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT ONLY END THE LAKE
EFFECT BUT WILL SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SAT HIGHS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 40
DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR. ENOUGH
DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST SAT NIGHT WILL DROP LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S.

ALTHOUGH AMPLIFIED...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SFC HIGH TO THE
EAST WILL ESTABLISH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS LOWER
MI...LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MOIST ADVECTION WILL THEN INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO TUES IN
ADVANCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH...SUPPORTING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP /WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM/. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE AND
SHOT AT SOME COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS MORNING INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES FROM THE PLAINS WILL SUSTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
HIGHLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL SUPPORT GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ363-441-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ442-443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ362.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KAPX 311017
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN AN EARLY TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OTHER THAN A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES...DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORTWAVE NOW DIVING SSE THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED PLUNGE OF SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. ATTENDING SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON THIS HOUR WHILE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. NOT A PARTICULARLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (1012 MB OR
SO). BUT STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALREADY EDGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED A STOUT P-GRADIENT
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH WINDS TURNING QUICKLY NORTH AND RAMPING UP
INTO THE SUSTAINED 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS PUSHING 40 KNOTS
JUST UPSTREAM.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD PRECIP SPANS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE
REGION...PRECIP CHANGEOVER TO SNOW NOW RUNS FROM ROUGHLY EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN BACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWING THE FORECAST 925 MB 0C LINE.

TODAY...POTENT UPPER WAVE PASSES RAPIDLY DOWN THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH UPSTREAM HIGH
PRESSURE...STRONG SUBSIDENC/DRYING TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BUT HAVE TO
GET THROUGH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG QG-UPWARD FORCING/
CATEGORICAL POPS BEFORE TAPERING OFF PRECIP CHANCES N-S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL NOT BE A HUGE PLAYER IN
THIS EVENT WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NORTH...SAVE FOR PARTS OF
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS.

P-TYPE...ANTICIPATE A RATHER QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW THIS
MORNING AS VERY COLD AIR SLAMS INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIXY NEAR THE COASTS. SNOW WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WHERE AROUND AN INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK.

HEADLINES...INHERITED WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALL NRN LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN COUNTIES WHICH LOOKS FINE FOR NOW WITH CORE OF 50 KNOT H8
WINDS PASSSING DOWN THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WINDS
COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST BUT DO NOT PLAN ON ADDING ANY WIND HEADLINES AT
THIS POINT. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...ANTICIPATE ONLY AROUND AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION WITH RATHER WET SNOW THAT SHOULD/T POSE TO
MUCH OF A BLSN THREAT...DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS. THUS...NOT
PLANNING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES EITHER ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY BE IN ORDER.

TONIGHT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RAPID DRYING WILL LARGELY CLEAR
THINGS OUT ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES A GOOD BET ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON
SHORELINES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

..UP/DOWN PATTERN SET TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE/AGRESSIVE...WITH LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING AND AN
AGITATED PACIFIC REGIME SUPPORTING SUCH. SPECIFICS ARE
ELUDING...HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A FAST EVOLVING PATTERN AND TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT CREATING PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. GUT FEELING IS
THE OVERALL FEATURES WILL LOOK QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN MID RANGE GUIDANCE PROGS. WE SHALL SEE.

FORECAST DETAILS: DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME THIS
WEEKEND AS CURRENT TROUGHING GETS THE BOOT EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. CORE OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES /H8 NEAR -10C/
OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PRODUCING EXCELLENT NEAR SURFACE
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW...WITH SHARP H8 INVERSION AND NOTED DRY TONGUE EXTENDING
EVEN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. HARD NOT TO ENVISION AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW STRATO-CU AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES IN FAVORED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AREAS TO START THE DAY...DRIVEN SIMPLY BY MAGNITUDE
OF DELTA T/S. DRYING WINS OUT THERE-ON-AFTER...WITH SKIES TRENDING
MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY LATER IN THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER TO START NEXT WORK WEEK GIVES WAY TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WARM...MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP
ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND OUT AHEAD OF ELONGATED
TROUGHING. NARROW...BUT WELL ORGANIZED...GULF MOISTURE PLUME ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD ONLY HELP THE SHOWER CAUSE LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...SUPPORTING INHERITED LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE SHOWER
POTENTIAL.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A NOSE-DIVE HEADING
INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
INTERACTION /OR LACK THEREOF/ OF STRONG UPPER JET CORES ROTATING
OVER AND OFF THE PACIFIC. PATTERN APPEARS RIPE FOR MORE AMPLIFICATION
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...WITH EVEN HINTS OF SUCH IN VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO FOLLOW A GUIDANCE BLEND
APPROACH FOR NOW...LETTING FUTURE TRENDS TAKES US WERE THEY MAY IN
THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...VERY CHILLY START...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S
SATURDAY...GIVES WAY TO MODERATION...WITH HIGHS TRENDING TO MUCH
MORE SEASONAL LEVELS INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS
COLDER AIR SLAMS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...TURNING ONGOING PRECIP TO
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING TO VFR AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS...TURNING VERY GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS COMMON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TONIGHT BUT
PERSIST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY REMAIN ON THE
GUSTIER SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW GALE
FORCE. WINDS FURTHER DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-019>021-025-
     026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...TBA
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...TBA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 310942
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
542 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
WHICH ORIGINATED IN NRN CANADA NOW DIVING SOUTH THROUGH NRN WI. 1011
MB SFC LOW PRES ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON WHILE 1039 MB SFC HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING OVER ERN ND. THE
RESULTING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS GENERATED NORTH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND TO 35 KNOTS OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. COLD AIR FLOODING INTO THE
AREA ON THE HEELS OF THESE NORTH WINDS HAVE LOWERED 8H TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -12C AND HAVE HELPED SUSTAINED WIND PARALLEL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE STRONG WINDS HAVE CARRIED THE HEAVIER LES
BANDS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE BEST RETURNS (GREATER
THAN 30 DBZ) LOCATED FROM HERMAN AND THREE LAKES IN BARAGA COUNTY TO
REPUBLIC AND ISHPEMING TO NEAR GWINN IN MQT COUNTY. THE HIGHEST
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTED THUS FAR WAS IN WAKEFIELD
WITH FIVE INCHES...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OTHER
LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN U.P SAW SIMILAR AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
PRECONDITIONING NOTED OFF LAKE NIPIGON ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EFFECTIVELY LENGTHENING OVERWATER FETCH. ACCUMULATION CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

TODAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 40 KTS AND FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND
DIRECTION TO NEAR 10 KFT ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC/CONVERGENT FLOW
HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH OF LES BANDS OVER
BARAGA AND WRN MQT COUNTIES AS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT LES BANDS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
THROUGH LATE MORNING HRS AS FLOW BCMS MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME
AND STRONG DNVA...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOC WITH BUILDING RDG TO THE
WEST EFFECTIVELY LOWERS INVERSION HGTS TO 5KFT OR LOWER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL WE SEE GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS MORNING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY WITH LAKE DELTA-T 18-19C ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LES ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SO WL MAINTAIN GOING LES ADVISORIES INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S UNDER COLD
AIRMASS.AND NORTH WINDS/CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN
ADVANCE OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN
PLAINS IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI
BY 12Z SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN
BELTS ACRS THE NCNTRL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND
THE SUB INVRN MOIST LAYER WARMS ABV -10C AND THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME
SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E
HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO
THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSER
TO BIAS CORRECTED REG GEM WITH 10-15F READINGS COMMON OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BDR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A SHARP
CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY/BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM. SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF REDEVELOPS...BUT PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN BLO NORMAL
TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO NEAR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT
WEEK AS ERN TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
THAT LEADS INTO THE ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR N AMERICA WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE
ANOMALY DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
ARCTIC OCEAN. AT LOWER LATITUDES...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS FCST
ACROSS THE CONUS...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIR WILL DUMP S
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CFSV2 RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU EARLY AND MID NOV...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.

BEGINNING SAT...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX AS PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM WRN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING TO ERN UPPER MI BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THICKER CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. UNDER A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE...TEMPS OVER
THE W WILL REBOUND ABOVE 40F AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPS OVER THE E WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S AS RETURN FLOW REALLY
DOESN`T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL EVENING.

HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME SAT NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BE
MUCH TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20F WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E AS THERE WILL
BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPS AOA 30F.
UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S
EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING TO 900-875MB. HOWEVER...GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER. ALTHOUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERN.

ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 30S.

MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM FASTER
THAN THE SRN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY GET SHUNTED E BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER LAKES. THUS...AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
RIBBON OF PCPN WILL PASS MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. SO...BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING FROM UPPER JET STREAK MAY WORK TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP PCPN BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE. IN THE END...
THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3 TO -5C BEHIND FRONT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FAR W LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.

WED/THU...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. SINCE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE WAVE IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS FCST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS BEGUN...AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THIS MORNING USHERS
IN MUCH COOLER MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH. ALL 3 TAF SITES TURNED OVER
TO ALL SNOW BY 0230Z. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM SNOW WISE
WILL EXIT E BY 10Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE N UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
GOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN LOWER CEILINGS HOVERING
AROUND IFR-MVFR...BLOWING SNOW FROM STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...REDUCING VIS TO AROUND 1SM OR LESS AT TIMES /PRIMARILY
BEFORE 09Z/. GUSTY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20KTS AFTER
18Z FRIDAY...WHILE STILL GUSTING IN THE 25KT RANGE AT SAW THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN FROM THE W...DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH IN WITH VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BY MID AFTERNOON AT IWD
AND CMX...AND BY 06Z SATURDAY AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WITH PRES RISE MAX SAGGING SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THE LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVING SOUTH WITH
TIME TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT N GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE THIS
MORNING WEST HALF AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST HALF AND THEN CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT
OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. LOOK FOR W WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30
KTS TUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>006-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ004>006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ248-265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>247-264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     240>242-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 310913
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
513 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NW ONTARIO(N OF KINL) DIVING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SHRTWV SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NE MN AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NRN MN AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF ONTARIO WHERE
VISIBILIITES HAD DROPPED AOB 1SM. A WEAK SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI ALSO WAS BRINGING SOME SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH NRN UPPER
MI. STRONG NRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NRN MN BETWEEN 1015MB LOW
PRES OVER CNTRL UPPE R MI AND A 1036 MB HIGH OVER SASK INTO WRN
MANITOBA. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE INTO NW MN
WITH THE PRES RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV...850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY 06Z AND
TO -12C BY 12Z (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR 7C) AND STRONG CYCLONIC NRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW...MAINLY BTWN 03Z-09Z. ALTHOUGH SLR VALUES INTO THE
10/1-15/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH QPF IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
RANGE...THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE OVER THE WARMER GROUND AND ROAD SURFACES THAT WERE STILL
NEAR 40F. LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THE STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW IN WEST AND N CNTRL UPPER WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WEST AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 6
INCHES N CNTRL. A LATER CHANGEVER TO SNOW AND GREATER MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORE TO AN INCH OR
TWO. OVER THE SOUTH...ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 03Z-09Z WITH A
FST 5 MB 3 HOUR PRES RISE AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND WAVES MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.

FRIDAY...EXPECT THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING AS STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 5K FT. IN ADDITION MORE ACYC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE SFC RIDGE APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP LES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A SHARP
CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY/BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM. SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF REDEVELOPS...BUT PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN BLO NORMAL
TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO NEAR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT
WEEK AS ERN TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
THAT LEADS INTO THE ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR N AMERICA WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE
ANOMALY DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
ARCTIC OCEAN. AT LOWER LATITUDES...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS FCST
ACROSS THE CONUS...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIR WILL DUMP S
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CFSV2 RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU EARLY AND MID NOV...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.

BEGINNING SAT...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX AS PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM WRN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING TO ERN UPPER MI BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THICKER CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. UNDER A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE...TEMPS OVER
THE W WILL REBOUND ABOVE 40F AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPS OVER THE E WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S AS RETURN FLOW REALLY
DOESN`T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL EVENING.

HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME SAT NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BE
MUCH TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20F WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E AS THERE WILL
BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPS AOA 30F.
UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S
EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING TO 900-875MB. HOWEVER...GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER. ALTHOUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERN.

ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 30S.

MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM FASTER
THAN THE SRN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY GET SHUNTED E BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER LAKES. THUS...AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
RIBBON OF PCPN WILL PASS MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. SO...BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING FROM UPPER JET STREAK MAY WORK TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP PCPN BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE. IN THE END...
THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3 TO -5C BEHIND FRONT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FAR W LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.

WED/THU...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. SINCE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE WAVE IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS FCST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS BEGUN...AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THIS MORNING USHERS
IN MUCH COOLER MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH. ALL 3 TAF SITES TURNED OVER
TO ALL SNOW BY 0230Z. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM SNOW WISE
WILL EXIT E BY 10Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE N UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
GOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN LOWER CEILINGS HOVERING
AROUND IFR-MVFR...BLOWING SNOW FROM STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...REDUCING VIS TO AROUND 1SM OR LESS AT TIMES /PRIMARILY
BEFORE 09Z/. GUSTY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20KTS AFTER
18Z FRIDAY...WHILE STILL GUSTING IN THE 25KT RANGE AT SAW THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN FROM THE W...DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH IN WITH VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BY MID AFTERNOON AT IWD
AND CMX...AND BY 06Z SATURDAY AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECT N TO NW GALES TO 35-45 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN ACCOMPANYING LO PRES OVER
LOWER MI AND HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SURGE OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER N WINDS TO THE LAKE
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE
HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. ONCE THE HI
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN TO THE E OF LO
PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR S WINDS UP TO
20-25 KTS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON. AS THE LO SHIFTS ACROSS
ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE W-NW UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ITS
WAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>006-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ004>006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ248-265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>247-264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     240>242-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KAPX 310752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN AN EARLY TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OTHER THAN A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES...DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORTWAVE NOW DIVING SSE THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED PLUNGE OF SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. ATTENDING SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON THIS HOUR WHILE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. NOT A PARTICULARLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (1012 MB OR
SO). BUT STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALREADY EDGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED A STOUT P-GRADIENT
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH WINDS TURNING QUICKLY NORTH AND RAMPING UP
INTO THE SUSTAINED 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS PUSHING 40 KNOTS
JUST UPSTREAM.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD PRECIP SPANS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE
REGION...PRECIP CHANGEOVER TO SNOW NOW RUNS FROM ROUGHLY EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN BACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWING THE FORECAST 925 MB 0C LINE.

TODAY...POTENT UPPER WAVE PASSES RAPIDLY DOWN THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH UPSTREAM HIGH
PRESSURE...STRONG SUBSIDENC/DRYING TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BUT HAVE TO
GET THROUGH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG QG-UPWARD FORCING/
CATEGORICAL POPS BEFORE TAPERING OFF PRECIP CHANCES N-S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL NOT BE A HUGE PLAYER IN
THIS EVENT WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NORTH...SAVE FOR PARTS OF
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS.

P-TYPE...ANTICIPATE A RATHER QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW THIS
MORNING AS VERY COLD AIR SLAMS INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIXY NEAR THE COASTS. SNOW WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WHERE AROUND AN INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK.

HEADLINES...INHERITED WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALL NRN LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN COUNTIES WHICH LOOKS FINE FOR NOW WITH CORE OF 50 KNOT H8
WINDS PASSSING DOWN THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WINDS
COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST BUT DO NOT PLAN ON ADDING ANY WIND HEADLINES AT
THIS POINT. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...ANTICIPATE ONLY AROUND AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION WITH RATHER WET SNOW THAT SHOULD/T POSE TO
MUCH OF A BLSN THREAT...DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS. THUS...NOT
PLANNING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES EITHER ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY BE IN ORDER.

TONIGHT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RAPID DRYING WILL LARGELY CLEAR
THINGS OUT ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES A GOOD BET ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON
SHORELINES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

..UP/DOWN PATTERN SET TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE/AGRESSIVE...WITH LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING AND AN
AGITATED PACIFIC REGIME SUPPORTING SUCH. SPECIFICS ARE
ELUDING...HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A FAST EVOLVING PATTERN AND TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT CREATING PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. GUT FEELING IS
THE OVERALL FEATURES WILL LOOK QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN MID RANGE GUIDANCE PROGS. WE SHALL SEE.

FORECAST DETAILS: DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME THIS
WEEKEND AS CURRENT TROUGHING GETS THE BOOT EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. CORE OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES /H8 NEAR -10C/
OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PRODUCING EXCELLENT NEAR SURFACE
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW...WITH SHARP H8 INVERSION AND NOTED DRY TONGUE EXTENDING
EVEN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. HARD NOT TO ENVISION AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW STRATO-CU AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES IN FAVORED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AREAS TO START THE DAY...DRIVEN SIMPLY BY MAGNITUDE
OF DELTA T/S. DRYING WINS OUT THERE-ON-AFTER...WITH SKIES TRENDING
MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY LATER IN THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER TO START NEXT WORK WEEK GIVES WAY TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WARM...MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP
ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND OUT AHEAD OF ELONGATED
TROUGHING. NARROW...BUT WELL ORGANIZED...GULF MOISTURE PLUME ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD ONLY HELP THE SHOWER CAUSE LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...SUPPORTING INHERITED LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE SHOWER
POTENTIAL.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A NOSE-DIVE HEADING
INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
INTERACTION /OR LACK THEREOF/ OF STRONG UPPER JET CORES ROTATING
OVER AND OFF THE PACIFIC. PATTERN APPEARS RIPE FOR MORE AMPLIFICATION
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...WITH EVEN HINTS OF SUCH IN VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO FOLLOW A GUIDANCE BLEND
APPROACH FOR NOW...LETTING FUTURE TRENDS TAKES US WERE THEY MAY IN
THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...VERY CHILLY START...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S
SATURDAY...GIVES WAY TO MODERATION...WITH HIGHS TRENDING TO MUCH
MORE SEASONAL LEVELS INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VBSYS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN STRONGER RAIN/SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY REMAIN ON THE
GUSTIER SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW GALE
FORCE. WINDS FURTHER DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...TBA
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...TBA




000
FXUS63 KDTX 310736
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
336 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS A POTENT PV
ANOMALY EMBEDDED WITHIN AGGRESSIVELY DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES TODAY. A WEAK 1012MB SURFACE LOW IS EVIDENT WITHIN
THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON,
BUT WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ONTARIO PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 07Z, WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE BANDING
ARE OBSERVED OVER WESTERN LOWER. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
DIGGING SHORTWAVE. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CONTINUED DYNAMIC SUPPORT
TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF WARM
ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.

A SECONDARY FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY BE
DRIVEN BY SFC-500MB LAYER FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT. UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA IS
ALREADY EVIDENT THIS MORNING, BUT WITH MODEL PROGS INDICATING A
NOTEWORTHY TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG WITH ADDED
DAYTIME INSTABILITY, A SOLID INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR FLINT AND POINTS SOUTHEAST, INCLUDING METRO
DETROIT.

IN ADDITION, A MODERATE WIND FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND THE
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS. AN ADDED COMPONENT OF SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC DESCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA CENTERED WITHIN A COUPLE
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 21Z WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED POP OF WIND THAT
MAY TOP OUT AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS. THIS BAND OF ENHANCED GUSTINESS
WILL WORK SOUTHEAST FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY AROUND 19Z TO DETROIT
METRO AROUND 23Z. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER
GROWTH, ONGOING PRECIP, UNIMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT, AND A
MARGINAL-AT-BEST SYSTEM RELATIVE SETUP PRECLUDE WIND ADVISORY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION IS HURON COUNTY WHERE WINDS
COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KNOTS
ALONG THE SHORELINE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SHORES OF INNER SAGINAW BAY,
BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY ATTM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE
HURON WILL FALL TO AROUND -6C, MODERATE VALUES, BUT IMPRESSIVE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THAT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD YIELD AN
EQUALLY HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE. AS A RESULT, CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE APPROPRIATE AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS
COLD AIR MAKES INROADS INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SUNSET, A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 0C. WHILE ALL AREAS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AT
LEAST A FEW FLAKES OVERNIGHT, LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE HURON MAY
SEE A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION IN SPITE OF THE ANTECEDENT WET
SURFACE. WARM ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE REMAINS A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY
OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS, WHERE LOWS MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 35-37F
AND PTYPE WILL STRUGGLE TO CHANGE OVER. CONVERSELY, LOCATIONS WEST
OF US-23 WILL REMAIN REMOVED FROM THE LAKE PLUME AND THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER 20S LOWS AND A STOUT WIND FIELD WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER TEENS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CORE OF COLDEST LOW LEVEL AIR /850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -10C/ WILL
ROTATE ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON SAT MORNING UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS EXCEEDING 1500 FT. EVEN WITH SOME
HEAT FLUX OFF THE LAKE...THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR /1000-850MB
THICKNESSES DROPPING BELOW 1290M/ SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT IF THE DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO DEPART...THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN THUMB. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR. LIGHTER INTENSITY SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR
FLURRIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND. AN AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
DRY AIR...BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER INVERSION BASES DUE TO
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT ONLY END THE LAKE
EFFECT BUT WILL SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SAT HIGHS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 40
DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR. ENOUGH
DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST SAT NIGHT WILL DROP LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S.

ALTHOUGH AMPLIFIED...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
WITH MID LEVEL RIDING EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST WILL
ESTABLISH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS LOWER MI...LEADING TO A
MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOIST ADVECTION
WILL THEN INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO TUES IN ADVANCE OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH...SUPPORTING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP /WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM/. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE AND SHOT AT SOME COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS MORNING INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES FROM THE PLAINS WILL SUSTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
HIGHLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL SUPPORT GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

//DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF AVIATION WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE IFR AND 30+
KNOT NORTH WIND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TOWARD SUNSET. THE FIRST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL ARRIVE WITH THE LEADING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AROUND
SUNRISE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT THAT WILL LEAD TO
BREAKS IN THE RAIN PATTERN FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BUT MVFR CEILING AND PERHAPS SOME FOG RESTRICTION WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND PRIMARY COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT WILL BRING IFR IN THE FORM OF LOW CEILING AND HEAVIER RAIN
THAT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY.

FOR DTW... TURNING POINTS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/FRONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WHICH WILL BRING MVFR
CEILING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME FOG. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING A
SHARP TURN IN THE WINDS FROM THE NORTH LIKELY GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS OR
GREATER...IFR CEILING...AND HEAVIER RAIN. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY BUT THE MIX WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ACCUMULATION ON THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SURFACES.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE NIGHT...
  HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN LATE TOWARD EVENING AND
  FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ363-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ362.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 310728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND COLD AIR WILL RUSH
IN. RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDY AND COLD HALLOWEEN WEATHER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS WISCONSIN
AT 07Z SHOW GUSTS FROM 25 TO 32 KNOTS IN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THIS AREA WILL BE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY
WHEN SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
REACH THE SFC.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TODAY. A BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATTM WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS BACK IN WISCONSIN AND THE MICHIGAN
UPPER PENINSULA. THESE SHOULD FILL IN THIS MORNING AS SHARP UPPER
TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND H5 LOW CUTS OFF.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDER THREAT TODAY IS DEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT
FROM THE FORECAST...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW ANY SFC HEATING
TO PRODUCE SOME UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. SO THERE COULD BE SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS OF SNOW OR GRAUPEL THAT WOULD WHITEN THE GROUND IN
A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH GROUND UP NORTH.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FLOW
GOES NORTH AND NORTHEAST. QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER TO FOLLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WE ARE WATCHING A COUPLE OF POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT COULD
PRODUCING MINOR IMPACTS TO THE AREA. ONE COMES IN DURING THE MON
NIGHT AND TUE TIME FRAME...AND THE OTHER COMES IN DURING THE WED
NIGHT AND THU TIME FRAME.

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT QUIET WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA...WE WILL SEE
THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE WRN U.S. COAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...AND MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY ON TUE.
THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A DECENT SHOT OF SOME RAINFALL.

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WX THEN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL COME WED NIGHT
AND THU. A JET STREAK COMING IN FROM OFF OF THE PACIFIC WILL HELP TO
DIG ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS FAR
SOUTH...AND WILL NOT HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF IT UNTIL THE
TROUGH IS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM JUSTIFIES HAVING A CHC OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE... HOWEVER THE CHCS WILL BE KEPT LOW FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS ARE PROGRESSING SE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER CIGS WILL FORM OVERHEAD WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS AROUND THE AREA WITH
CIGS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE LOW END OF MVFR THROUGH 12Z. CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SHOWERS AROUND. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
WILL GUST WELL INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE OUT AT
MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AND THEN CLEAR OUT WITH THE NORTH WIND AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING. EXPECT NORTH GALES ALONG THE
NEARSHORE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK
DECREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES AND CONDITIONS BECOMING FAIRLY CALM BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
THE RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 310536
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
136 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY.  RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  THEN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY.  BY FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS.  WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STRONG INTO
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...AND 45
MPH INLAND.  THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY 40 TO 45.  ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY...INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL
BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. HIGH POPS STILL WARRANTED.
INCOMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. CLOSE CALL FOR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ON THE LAKESHORE.
UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS LOWER POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE COMING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS COLD ADVECTION POURS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT.  WILL BE
HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AS TREE LIMBS COULD COME DOWN
ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  RAIN WILL SPREAD IN WITH THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ENHANCED BY THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS H8 TEMPS DIP TO AROUND -4C
BY 12Z FRI.

EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS H8 TEMPS CONTINUE DOWNWARD TOWARD -8C BY FRIDAY
EVENING.  THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEFORMATION ZONE COMING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD
COME IN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT AS THE PCPN INTENSIFIES EXPECT IT
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER AS WINDS PIVOT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST.  A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY PUT DOWN UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
THE FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION.  AND ALSO
OVER THE SE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  THE SE
CWA MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE WIND...MIXING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.  WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.  IT SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO
ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM FRIDAY/S ACTIVE WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN A COLD NIGHT...WHERE LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE 20S IN MANY AREAS. THE FAR NORTHEAST UP TOWARDS
CLARE WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 20.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST THE RIDGE ACROSS CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL PUSH BACK TO NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS ARE PROGRESSING SE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER CIGS WILL FORM OVERHEAD WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS AROUND THE AREA WITH
CIGS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE LOW END OF MVFR THROUGH 12Z. CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SHOWERS AROUND. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
WILL GUST WELL INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE OUT AT
MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AND THEN CLEAR OUT WITH THE NORTH WIND AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CLOSE CALL FOR STORM CRITERIA WINDS. STILL A LOT OF GUIDANCE
COMING IN. THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH MAKES ADDS TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH END GALE. AS FOR THE TIMING....STILL LOOKS LIKE
CLOSE TO 8 AM FOR THE START OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED...THE PERIOD OF PCPN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KDTX 310405
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1205 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF AVIATION WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE IFR AND 30+
KNOT NORTH WIND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TOWARD SUNSET. THE FIRST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL ARRIVE WITH THE LEADING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AROUND
SUNRISE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT THAT WILL LEAD TO
BREAKS IN THE RAIN PATTERN FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BUT MVFR CEILING AND PERHAPS SOME FOG RESTRICTION WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND PRIMARY COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT WILL BRING IFR IN THE FORM OF LOW CEILING AND HEAVIER RAIN
THAT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY.

FOR DTW... TURNING POINTS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/FRONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WHICH WILL BRING MVFR
CEILING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME FOG. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING A
SHARP TURN IN THE WINDS FROM THE NORTH LIKELY GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS OR
GREATER...IFR CEILING...AND HEAVIER RAIN. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY BUT THE MIX WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ACCUMULATION ON THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SURFACES.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE NIGHT...
  HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN LATE TOWARD EVENING AND
  FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 920 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ON SCHEDULE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO SE
MICHIGAN IN THE FORM OF INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT
AND THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG WIND FRIDAY. NORTH WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH LIKELY TO COMBINE WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF SNOW
FOR HARSH WEATHER TOWARD SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE BEST
ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED IN MODEL
DATA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. TIMING ON ANY ISSUANCE OF
HEADLINES REMAINS BEST SUITED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE.

UNTIL THEN...EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE STRAITS REGION WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT OR
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
PLACES WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THAT WILL BRING IN MILD AIR FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT AND
MAINTAIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING FORCED BY GENTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE FORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE THETA-E RIDGE BECOMING WELL
DEFINED DURING THE NIGHT REPRESENTING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN UPTICK IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN...FIRST IN THE TRI CITIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA TOWARD SUNRISE
LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MID FRIDAY MORNING. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS
SOLID RAMPING UP TO CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 422 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A VIGOROUS...TIGHT PV ANOMALY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN MN AT 17Z. 12Z SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE SHORT
TERM...PLACING IT NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY. CURRENTLY
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL HEIGHT
FALLS/WEAK WAA AS THE UPPER FEATURE NEARS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE
MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD WITH TIME INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASCENT INCREASES FURTHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE NEARS. SURFACE LOW WILL BE
ROUGHLY OVER SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD. THE HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN CIRCULATION
SHOULD STILL MOSTLY BE TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL
AIR AT THAT POINT...BUT ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AFTER 09Z OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY/FLINT
REGIONS...RESPECTIVELY. LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH TONIGHT WITH THE
INSULATING CLOUD DECK...EXPECTING MAINLY LOW 40S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL DIVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THEN TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG RIDGING EXTENDING UP THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH...LOW PRESSURE NOW NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LAKE HURON FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO LAKE ERIE FRIDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GUSTY
WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WORKING DOWN INTO THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECTING BEST COVERAGE
AND PRECIP RATES AS DEFORMATION AXIS AND EVEN A WEAK TROWAL ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. DEFORMATION AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER A
BIT LONGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO DROP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TIMING
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM VERY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY LOOK LIGHT AT THIS TIME...AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FROM OFF LAKE HURON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS AND STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. LAKE-MODIFIED AIRMASS ALSO MAKES PRECIP TYPE A
LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING...AS IT COULD KEEP PRECIP RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

OTHER CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE STRONG CORE OF 50 KT WINDS AT 925-
850MB WORKING DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR GUSTS TO 45 OR PERHAPS EVEN 50 MPH TO WORK DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS LAPSE RATES ALSO STEEPEN. MODELS HAVE WAVERED A BIT ON
THIS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...AND DO NOT SHOW STRONG DESCENT LIKE WE
HAVE HAD WITH WIND EVENTS IN THE PAST. WILL WATCH FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF MODEL RUNS...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS.
THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD PUT AN END TO
LAKE EFFECT FROM OFF LAKE HURON BY AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SET US
UP FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...WITH LOWS SOLIDLY IN
THE 20S.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST ON SUNDAY...FLOW
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN RECOVERS FROM THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S
BY TUESDAY. A SOUTHWEST JET WILL THEN USHER IN PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCATION
AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT IS UP FOR DEBATE...SO THERE COULD A
LARGE TEMP SWING/ERROR ON DAYS 6-7.

MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
TO SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...IT WILL PULL AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD AIR WILL FILL IN OVER THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS...ALLOWING A STRONG CORE OF WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
LAKE SURFACE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
LAKE HURON ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
AREA. LARGE WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
HOWEVER...NOT DROPPING BELOW 4 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ363-421-422-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 310405
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1205 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF AVIATION WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE IFR AND 30+
KNOT NORTH WIND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TOWARD SUNSET. THE FIRST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL ARRIVE WITH THE LEADING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AROUND
SUNRISE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT THAT WILL LEAD TO
BREAKS IN THE RAIN PATTERN FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BUT MVFR CEILING AND PERHAPS SOME FOG RESTRICTION WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND PRIMARY COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT WILL BRING IFR IN THE FORM OF LOW CEILING AND HEAVIER RAIN
THAT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY.

FOR DTW... TURNING POINTS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/FRONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WHICH WILL BRING MVFR
CEILING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME FOG. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING A
SHARP TURN IN THE WINDS FROM THE NORTH LIKELY GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS OR
GREATER...IFR CEILING...AND HEAVIER RAIN. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY BUT THE MIX WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ACCUMULATION ON THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SURFACES.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE NIGHT...
  HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN LATE TOWARD EVENING AND
  FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 920 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ON SCHEDULE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO SE
MICHIGAN IN THE FORM OF INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT
AND THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG WIND FRIDAY. NORTH WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH LIKELY TO COMBINE WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF SNOW
FOR HARSH WEATHER TOWARD SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE BEST
ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED IN MODEL
DATA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. TIMING ON ANY ISSUANCE OF
HEADLINES REMAINS BEST SUITED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE.

UNTIL THEN...EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE STRAITS REGION WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT OR
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
PLACES WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THAT WILL BRING IN MILD AIR FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT AND
MAINTAIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING FORCED BY GENTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE FORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE THETA-E RIDGE BECOMING WELL
DEFINED DURING THE NIGHT REPRESENTING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN UPTICK IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN...FIRST IN THE TRI CITIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA TOWARD SUNRISE
LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MID FRIDAY MORNING. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS
SOLID RAMPING UP TO CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 422 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A VIGOROUS...TIGHT PV ANOMALY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN MN AT 17Z. 12Z SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE SHORT
TERM...PLACING IT NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY. CURRENTLY
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL HEIGHT
FALLS/WEAK WAA AS THE UPPER FEATURE NEARS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE
MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD WITH TIME INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASCENT INCREASES FURTHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE NEARS. SURFACE LOW WILL BE
ROUGHLY OVER SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD. THE HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN CIRCULATION
SHOULD STILL MOSTLY BE TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL
AIR AT THAT POINT...BUT ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AFTER 09Z OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY/FLINT
REGIONS...RESPECTIVELY. LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH TONIGHT WITH THE
INSULATING CLOUD DECK...EXPECTING MAINLY LOW 40S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL DIVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THEN TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG RIDGING EXTENDING UP THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH...LOW PRESSURE NOW NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LAKE HURON FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO LAKE ERIE FRIDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GUSTY
WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WORKING DOWN INTO THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECTING BEST COVERAGE
AND PRECIP RATES AS DEFORMATION AXIS AND EVEN A WEAK TROWAL ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. DEFORMATION AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER A
BIT LONGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO DROP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TIMING
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM VERY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY LOOK LIGHT AT THIS TIME...AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FROM OFF LAKE HURON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS AND STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. LAKE-MODIFIED AIRMASS ALSO MAKES PRECIP TYPE A
LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING...AS IT COULD KEEP PRECIP RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

OTHER CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE STRONG CORE OF 50 KT WINDS AT 925-
850MB WORKING DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR GUSTS TO 45 OR PERHAPS EVEN 50 MPH TO WORK DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS LAPSE RATES ALSO STEEPEN. MODELS HAVE WAVERED A BIT ON
THIS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...AND DO NOT SHOW STRONG DESCENT LIKE WE
HAVE HAD WITH WIND EVENTS IN THE PAST. WILL WATCH FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF MODEL RUNS...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS.
THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD PUT AN END TO
LAKE EFFECT FROM OFF LAKE HURON BY AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SET US
UP FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...WITH LOWS SOLIDLY IN
THE 20S.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST ON SUNDAY...FLOW
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN RECOVERS FROM THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S
BY TUESDAY. A SOUTHWEST JET WILL THEN USHER IN PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCATION
AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT IS UP FOR DEBATE...SO THERE COULD A
LARGE TEMP SWING/ERROR ON DAYS 6-7.

MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
TO SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...IT WILL PULL AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD AIR WILL FILL IN OVER THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS...ALLOWING A STRONG CORE OF WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
LAKE SURFACE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
LAKE HURON ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
AREA. LARGE WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
HOWEVER...NOT DROPPING BELOW 4 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ363-421-422-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 310334
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1134 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NW ONTARIO(N OF KINL) DIVING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SHRTWV SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NE MN AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NRN MN AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF ONTARIO WHERE
VISIBILIITES HAD DROPPED AOB 1SM. A WEAK SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI ALSO WAS BRINGING SOME SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH NRN UPPER
MI. STRONG NRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NRN MN BETWEEN 1015MB LOW
PRES OVER CNTRL UPPE R MI AND A 1036 MB HIGH OVER SASK INTO WRN
MANITOBA. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE INTO NW MN
WITH THE PRES RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV...850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY 06Z AND
TO -12C BY 12Z (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR 7C) AND STRONG CYCLONIC NRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW...MAINLY BTWN 03Z-09Z. ALTHOUGH SLR VALUES INTO THE
10/1-15/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH QPF IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
RANGE...THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE OVER THE WARMER GROUND AND ROAD SURFACES THAT WERE STILL
NEAR 40F. LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THE STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW IN WEST AND N CNTRL UPPER WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WEST AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 6
INCHES N CNTRL. A LATER CHANGEVER TO SNOW AND GREATER MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORE TO AN INCH OR
TWO. OVER THE SOUTH...ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 03Z-09Z WITH A
FST 5 MB 3 HOUR PRES RISE AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND WAVES MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.

FRIDAY...EXPECT THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING AS STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 5K FT. IN ADDITION MORE ACYC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE SFC RIDGE APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP LES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON
HOW QUICKLY LINGERING LK EFFECT SNOW WL DIMINISH ON FRI NGT AND THEN
ON POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACCOMPANYING NEXT SHRTWV FCST TO SHIFT E
THRU SRN CANADA. EXPECT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI NGT TO RISE TO
AOA NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER SW FLOW/UPR RDGING IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. BUT COLDER AIR WL RETURN BY
MID WEEK AS THE SHRTWV HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN UPR TROF IN SE CANADA.

FRI NGT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE
OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI BY 12Z
SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN BELTS ACRS
THE NCENTRAL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS WL DIMINISH AS THE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND THE SUB INVRN LVL MSTR
WARMS ABV -10C/THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU
MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER
THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING
TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO
THE TEENS IN SOME PLACES. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
FCST TEMPS FOR THE INTERIOR W.

SAT THRU SUN...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX ON SAT WITH SFC RDG AXIS/DRY
AIRMASS SHIFTING SLOWLY E TO OVER THE SAULT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS DRIFTING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS MAY MOVE INTO
THE W IN THE AFTN...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND RETURN SLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HI THAT IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TOWARD 2C BY
00Z SUN OVER THE W SHOULD ALLOW SFC MAX TEMPS THERE TO REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. COMBINATION OF INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF SLOWLY
DEPARTING RDG AXIS/COME HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL ON
SAT NGT. THE LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20 WL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI/FLATTER PRES GRADIENT AND LOWER PWAT.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP WL SEE HIER TEMPS AOA 30. UNDER SOME HI
CLDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING
TO H875-9. BUT GUSTY S WINDS UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING HI/FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING
H925 WINDS FCST AS HI AS 30 KTS WL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER.

SUN NGT...STEADY SSW WIND BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD LK
WINNIPEG IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV LIFTING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA WL ADVECT
HIER PWAT UP TO ARND 0.75 INCH /ABOUT 150 PCT OF NORMAL/. BUT
ABSENCE OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV
SO FAR TO THE NW AND RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE FCST SDNGS WARRANTS
GOING DRY FCST. WINDS/INCRSG PWAT WL LIMIT THE NOCTURNAL TEMP DROP.

MON THRU TUE NGT...AS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG ON
MON SHIFTS E INTO NW ONTARIO ON TUE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL SHIFT
THRU THE UPR LKS...CROSSING THE CWA ON MON NGT. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK
OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE N WL TAKE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N OF UPR MI AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEPER MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE REMAINING TO THE S...12HR
H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M OVER UPR MI JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHC POPS. THE
PTYPE WL BE RA INTO AT LEAST LATE TUE. THE MODELS THAT SHOW A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROF THEN SHOW CYC WNW FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE LO IN
ONTARIO DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -5 TO -7C TUE NGT IN THE PRESENCE
OF HIER RH THRU H7...SO SOME SN MAY MIX WITH THE RA AS THE PCPN
TRANSITIONS TOWARD A LK EFFECT MODE WITHIN THE CYC FLOW.

EXTENDED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING NEAR THE UPR LKS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHC OF RA/SN AND SOME LK EFFECT
SN IN ITS WAKE. BUT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SCENARIOS AS FAR AS THE
TRACK/ INTENSITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS TOO LARGE TO DEVIATE FM A
CONSENSUS FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS BEGUN...AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THIS MORNING USHERS
IN MUCH COOLER MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH. ALL 3 TAF SITES TURNED OVER
TO ALL SNOW BY 0230Z. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM SNOW WISE
WILL EXIT E BY 10Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE N UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
GOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN LOWER CEILINGS HOVERING
AROUND IFR-MVFR...BLOWING SNOW FROM STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...REDUCING VIS TO AROUND 1SM OR LESS AT TIMES /PRIMARILY
BEFORE 09Z/. GUSTY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20KTS AFTER
18Z FRIDAY...WHILE STILL GUSTING IN THE 25KT RANGE AT SAW THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN FROM THE W...DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH IN WITH VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BY MID AFTERNOON AT IWD
AND CMX...AND BY 06Z SATURDAY AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECT N TO NW GALES TO 35-45 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN ACCOMPANYING LO PRES OVER
LOWER MI AND HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SURGE OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER N WINDS TO THE LAKE
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE
HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. ONCE THE HI
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN TO THE E OF LO
PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR S WINDS UP TO
20-25 KTS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON. AS THE LO SHIFTS ACROSS
ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE W-NW UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ITS
WAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
     MIZ001>006-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ004>006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>248-264-265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-
     263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KGRR 310225
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1025 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY.  RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  THEN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY.  BY FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS.  WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STRONG INTO
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...AND 45
MPH INLAND.  THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY 40 TO 45.  ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY...INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL
BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. HIGH POPS STILL WARRANTED.
INCOMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. CLOSE CALL FOR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ON THE LAKESHORE.
UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS LOWER POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE COMING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS COLD ADVECTION POURS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT.  WILL BE
HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AS TREE LIMBS COULD COME DOWN
ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  RAIN WILL SPREAD IN WITH THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ENHANCED BY THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS H8 TEMPS DIP TO AROUND -4C
BY 12Z FRI.

EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS H8 TEMPS CONTINUE DOWNWARD TOWARD -8C BY FRIDAY
EVENING.  THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEFORMATION ZONE COMING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD
COME IN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT AS THE PCPN INTENSIFIES EXPECT IT
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER AS WINDS PIVOT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST.  A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY PUT DOWN UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
THE FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION.  AND ALSO
OVER THE SE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  THE SE
CWA MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE WIND...MIXING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.  WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.  IT SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO
ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM FRIDAY/S ACTIVE WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN A COLD NIGHT...WHERE LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE 20S IN MANY AREAS. THE FAR NORTHEAST UP TOWARDS
CLARE WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 20.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST THE RIDGE ACROSS CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL PUSH BACK TO NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

IMPACTS TO AVIATORS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN.

CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR LEVEL...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MOVING IN. THERE IS A RISK FOR IFR AFTER
06Z...BUT I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD IT TO THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD. AFTER 12Z...THERE IS SOME IFR IN THE FORECAST WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING. CLOUD BASES COULD LOWER INTO THAT CATEGORY
AS WELL. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. GUSTS OVER 40 KT
ARE LIKELY FOR LAKESHORE AIRPORTS WITH INLAND VALUES OVER 32 KNOTS
EXPECTED.

THERE IS A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE RISK IS TOO LOW FOR KMKG TO ADD
IT TO THE FORECAST.

I DID DECREASE THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CLOSE CALL FOR STORM CRITERIA WINDS. STILL A LOT OF GUIDANCE
COMING IN. THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH MAKES ADDS TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH END GALE. AS FOR THE TIMING....STILL LOOKS LIKE
CLOSE TO 8 AM FOR THE START OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED...THE PERIOD OF PCPN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 310207
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1007 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NW ONTARIO(N OF KINL) DIVING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SHRTWV SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NE MN AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NRN MN AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF ONTARIO WHERE
VISIBILIITES HAD DROPPED AOB 1SM. A WEAK SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI ALSO WAS BRINGING SOME SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH NRN UPPER
MI. STRONG NRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NRN MN BETWEEN 1015MB LOW
PRES OVER CNTRL UPPE R MI AND A 1036 MB HIGH OVER SASK INTO WRN
MANITOBA. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE INTO NW MN
WITH THE PRES RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV...850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY 06Z AND
TO -12C BY 12Z (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR 7C) AND STRONG CYCLONIC NRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW...MAINLY BTWN 03Z-09Z. ALTHOUGH SLR VALUES INTO THE
10/1-15/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH QPF IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
RANGE...THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE OVER THE WARMER GROUND AND ROAD SURFACES THAT WERE STILL
NEAR 40F. LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THE STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW IN WEST AND N CNTRL UPPER WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WEST AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 6
INCHES N CNTRL. A LATER CHANGEVER TO SNOW AND GREATER MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORE TO AN INCH OR
TWO. OVER THE SOUTH...ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 03Z-09Z WITH A
FST 5 MB 3 HOUR PRES RISE AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND WAVES MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.

FRIDAY...EXPECT THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING AS STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 5K FT. IN ADDITION MORE ACYC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE SFC RIDGE APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP LES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON
HOW QUICKLY LINGERING LK EFFECT SNOW WL DIMINISH ON FRI NGT AND THEN
ON POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACCOMPANYING NEXT SHRTWV FCST TO SHIFT E
THRU SRN CANADA. EXPECT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI NGT TO RISE TO
AOA NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER SW FLOW/UPR RDGING IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. BUT COLDER AIR WL RETURN BY
MID WEEK AS THE SHRTWV HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN UPR TROF IN SE CANADA.

FRI NGT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE
OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI BY 12Z
SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN BELTS ACRS
THE NCENTRAL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS WL DIMINISH AS THE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND THE SUB INVRN LVL MSTR
WARMS ABV -10C/THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU
MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER
THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING
TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO
THE TEENS IN SOME PLACES. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
FCST TEMPS FOR THE INTERIOR W.

SAT THRU SUN...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX ON SAT WITH SFC RDG AXIS/DRY
AIRMASS SHIFTING SLOWLY E TO OVER THE SAULT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS DRIFTING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS MAY MOVE INTO
THE W IN THE AFTN...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND RETURN SLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HI THAT IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TOWARD 2C BY
00Z SUN OVER THE W SHOULD ALLOW SFC MAX TEMPS THERE TO REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. COMBINATION OF INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF SLOWLY
DEPARTING RDG AXIS/COME HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL ON
SAT NGT. THE LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20 WL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI/FLATTER PRES GRADIENT AND LOWER PWAT.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP WL SEE HIER TEMPS AOA 30. UNDER SOME HI
CLDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING
TO H875-9. BUT GUSTY S WINDS UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING HI/FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING
H925 WINDS FCST AS HI AS 30 KTS WL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER.

SUN NGT...STEADY SSW WIND BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD LK
WINNIPEG IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV LIFTING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA WL ADVECT
HIER PWAT UP TO ARND 0.75 INCH /ABOUT 150 PCT OF NORMAL/. BUT
ABSENCE OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV
SO FAR TO THE NW AND RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE FCST SDNGS WARRANTS
GOING DRY FCST. WINDS/INCRSG PWAT WL LIMIT THE NOCTURNAL TEMP DROP.

MON THRU TUE NGT...AS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG ON
MON SHIFTS E INTO NW ONTARIO ON TUE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL SHIFT
THRU THE UPR LKS...CROSSING THE CWA ON MON NGT. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK
OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE N WL TAKE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N OF UPR MI AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEPER MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE REMAINING TO THE S...12HR
H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M OVER UPR MI JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHC POPS. THE
PTYPE WL BE RA INTO AT LEAST LATE TUE. THE MODELS THAT SHOW A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROF THEN SHOW CYC WNW FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE LO IN
ONTARIO DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -5 TO -7C TUE NGT IN THE PRESENCE
OF HIER RH THRU H7...SO SOME SN MAY MIX WITH THE RA AS THE PCPN
TRANSITIONS TOWARD A LK EFFECT MODE WITHIN THE CYC FLOW.

EXTENDED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING NEAR THE UPR LKS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHC OF RA/SN AND SOME LK EFFECT
SN IN ITS WAKE. BUT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SCENARIOS AS FAR AS THE
TRACK/ INTENSITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS TOO LARGE TO DEVIATE FM A
CONSENSUS FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS BEGUN. WINDS ARE
QUICKLY COMING UP W-E...AS COOLER AIR SWITCHED RAIN TO SNOW. VIS
ALREADY DOWN TO 3/4SM AT CMX WITH GUSTS NEARING 25KTS. EXPECT VIS TO
FLUCTUATE FROM 3/4 TO 3SM THROUGH 10Z...AFTER WHICH WE WILL BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE SOME IMPROVEMENTS AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE W. VFR
CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL 3 SITES BY MID AFTERNOON AT
IWD AND CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECT N TO NW GALES TO 35-45 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN ACCOMPANYING LO PRES OVER
LOWER MI AND HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SURGE OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER N WINDS TO THE LAKE
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE
HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. ONCE THE HI
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN TO THE E OF LO
PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR S WINDS UP TO
20-25 KTS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON. AS THE LO SHIFTS ACROSS
ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE W-NW UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ITS
WAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1
     PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>006-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ004>006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>248-264-265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-
     263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KAPX 310155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/STRONG COLD STILL POISED TO SWEEP INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FROPA LOOKS TO BE AROUND 06Z OVER EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND BETWEEN 09Z-12Z OVER NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER SLIGHTLY BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS...BUT OVERALL TREND IS STILL FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER
BEFORE SUNRISE.

DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COAST. CORE OF STRONGEST 925MB WINDS OF 45-55KTS MOVES
ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AND GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SOME 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VBSYS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN STRONGER RAIN/SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016-019>021-
     025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
SYNOPSIS...TJL
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MQT




000
FXUS63 KDTX 310120
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
920 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ON SCHEDULE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO SE
MICHIGAN IN THE FORM OF INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT
AND THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG WIND FRIDAY. NORTH WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH LIKELY TO COMBINE WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF SNOW
FOR HARSH WEATHER TOWARD SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE BEST
ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED IN MODEL
DATA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. TIMING ON ANY ISSUANCE OF
HEADLINES REMAINS BEST SUITED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE.

UNTIL THEN...EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE STRAITS REGION WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT OR
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
PLACES WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THAT WILL BRING IN MILD AIR FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT AND
MAINTAIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING FORCED BY GENTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE FORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE THETA-E RIDGE BECOMING WELL
DEFINED DURING THE NIGHT REPRESENTING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN UPTICK IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN...FIRST IN THE TRI CITIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA TOWARD SUNRISE
LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MID FRIDAY MORNING. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS
SOLID RAMPING UP TO CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 717 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

//DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR AVIATION INTERESTS AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MAINLY DURING FRIDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE IFR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 30 KNOT+ NORTH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT ACCOMPANIED
BY HEAVIER RAIN AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TOWARD SUNSET.

THE BEGINNINGS OF THE SYSTEM ARE SEEN TONIGHT IN THE FORM LOW END
VFR CEILING AND A FEW SPRINKLES WHICH WILL TREND DOWNWARD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE LEADING SURFACE TROUGH TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A DRY SLOT THAT WILL LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE RAIN PATTERN FROM
MID FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR CEILING AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG RESTRICTION WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND PRIMARY COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN AND LOW CEILING THAT WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY EVENING POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR DTW... TURNING POINTS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WHICH WILL BRING IN RAIN...MVFR
CEILING...AND PERHAPS SOME FOG. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR AND NORTH WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH HEAVIER RAIN. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE MIX LIKELY
LIMITING ACCUMULATION ON THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SURFACES.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT...
  HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 422 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A VIGOROUS...TIGHT PV ANOMALY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN MN AT 17Z. 12Z SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE SHORT
TERM...PLACING IT NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY. CURRENTLY
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL HEIGHT
FALLS/WEAK WAA AS THE UPPER FEATURE NEARS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE
MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD WITH TIME INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASCENT INCREASES FURTHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE NEARS. SURFACE LOW WILL BE
ROUGHLY OVER SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD. THE HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN CIRCULATION
SHOULD STILL MOSTLY BE TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL
AIR AT THAT POINT...BUT ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AFTER 09Z OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY/FLINT
REGIONS...RESPECTIVELY. LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH TONIGHT WITH THE
INSULATING CLOUD DECK...EXPECTING MAINLY LOW 40S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL DIVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THEN TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG RIDGING EXTENDING UP THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH...LOW PRESSURE NOW NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LAKE HURON FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO LAKE ERIE FRIDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GUSTY
WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WORKING DOWN INTO THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECTING BEST COVERAGE
AND PRECIP RATES AS DEFORMATION AXIS AND EVEN A WEAK TROWAL ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. DEFORMATION AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER A
BIT LONGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO DROP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TIMING
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM VERY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY LOOK LIGHT AT THIS TIME...AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FROM OFF LAKE HURON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS AND STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. LAKE-MODIFIED AIRMASS ALSO MAKES PRECIP TYPE A
LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING...AS IT COULD KEEP PRECIP RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

OTHER CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE STRONG CORE OF 50 KT WINDS AT 925-
850MB WORKING DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR GUSTS TO 45 OR PERHAPS EVEN 50 MPH TO WORK DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS LAPSE RATES ALSO STEEPEN. MODELS HAVE WAVERED A BIT ON
THIS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...AND DO NOT SHOW STRONG DESCENT LIKE WE
HAVE HAD WITH WIND EVENTS IN THE PAST. WILL WATCH FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF MODEL RUNS...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS.
THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD PUT AN END TO
LAKE EFFECT FROM OFF LAKE HURON BY AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SET US
UP FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...WITH LOWS SOLIDLY IN
THE 20S.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST ON SUNDAY...FLOW
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN RECOVERS FROM THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S
BY TUESDAY. A SOUTHWEST JET WILL THEN USHER IN PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCATION
AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT IS UP FOR DEBATE...SO THERE COULD A
LARGE TEMP SWING/ERROR ON DAYS 6-7.

MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
TO SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...IT WILL PULL AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD AIR WILL FILL IN OVER THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS...ALLOWING A STRONG CORE OF WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
LAKE SURFACE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
LAKE HURON ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
AREA. LARGE WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
HOWEVER...NOT DROPPING BELOW 4 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ363-421-
     422-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ442-443-
     463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 310110
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
910 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/STRONG COLD STILL POISED TO SWEEP INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FROPA LOOKS TO BE AROUND 06Z OVER EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND BETWEEN 09Z-12Z OVER NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER SLIGHTLY BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS...BUT OVERALL TREND IS STILL FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER
BEFORE SUNRISE.

DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COAST. CORE OF STRONGEST 925MB WINDS OF 45-55KTS MOVES
ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AND GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SOME 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VBSYS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN STRONGER RAIN/SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016-019>021-
     025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MQT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 302347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
747 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VBSYS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN STRONGER RAIN/SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MQT
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MQT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 302322
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
722 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJL
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...MQT
MARINE...MQT




000
FXUS63 KGRR 302321
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
721 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY.  RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  THEN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY.  BY FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS.  WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STRONG INTO
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...AND 45
MPH INLAND.  THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY 40 TO 45.  ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY...INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE COMING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS COLD ADVECTION POURS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT.  WILL BE
HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AS TREE LIMBS COULD COME DOWN
ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  RAIN WILL SPREAD IN WITH THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ENHANCED BY THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS H8 TEMPS DIP TO AROUND -4C
BY 12Z FRI.

EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS H8 TEMPS CONTINUE DOWNWARD TOWARD -8C BY FRIDAY
EVENING.  THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEFORMATION ZONE COMING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD
COME IN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT AS THE PCPN INTENSIFIES EXPECT IT
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER AS WINDS PIVOT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST.  A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY PUT DOWN UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
THE FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION.  AND ALSO
OVER THE SE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  THE SE
CWA MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE WIND...MIXING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.  WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.  IT SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO
ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM FRIDAY/S ACTIVE WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN A COLD NIGHT...WHERE LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE 20S IN MANY AREAS. THE FAR NORTHEAST UP TOWARDS
CLARE WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 20.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST THE RIDGE ACROSS CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL PUSH BACK TO NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

IMPACTS TO AVIATORS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN.

CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR LEVEL...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MOVING IN. THERE IS A RISK FOR IFR AFTER
06Z...BUT I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD IT TO THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD. AFTER 12Z...THERE IS SOME IFR IN THE FORECAST WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING. CLOUD BASES COULD LOWER INTO THAT CATEGORY
AS WELL. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. GUSTS OVER 40 KT
ARE LIKELY FOR LAKESHORE AIRPORTS WITH INLAND VALUES OVER 32 KNOTS
EXPECTED.

THERE IS A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE RISK IS TOO LOW FOR KMKG TO ADD
IT TO THE FORECAST.

I DID DECREASE THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING WHICH GOES INTO AFFECT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.  GUST APPROACHING STORM FORCE IS EXPECTED FURTHER OFFSHORE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED...THE PERIOD OF PCPN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK







000
FXUS63 KDTX 302317
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
717 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR AVIATION INTERESTS AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MAINLY DURING FRIDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE IFR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 30 KNOT+ NORTH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT ACCOMPANIED
BY HEAVIER RAIN AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TOWARD SUNSET.

THE BEGINNINGS OF THE SYSTEM ARE SEEN TONIGHT IN THE FORM LOW END
VFR CEILING AND A FEW SPRINKLES WHICH WILL TREND DOWNWARD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE LEADING SURFACE TROUGH TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A DRY SLOT THAT WILL LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE RAIN PATTERN FROM
MID FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR CEILING AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG RESTRICTION WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND PRIMARY COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN AND LOW CEILING THAT WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY EVENING POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR DTW... TURNING POINTS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WHICH WILL BRING IN RAIN...MVFR
CEILING...AND PERHAPS SOME FOG. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR AND NORTH WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH HEAVIER RAIN. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE MIX LIKELY
LIMITING ACCUMULATION ON THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SURFACES.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT...
  HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 422 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A VIGOROUS...TIGHT PV ANOMALY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN MN AT 17Z. 12Z SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE SHORT
TERM...PLACING IT NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY. CURRENTLY
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL HEIGHT
FALLS/WEAK WAA AS THE UPPER FEATURE NEARS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE
MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD WITH TIME INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASCENT INCREASES FURTHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE NEARS. SURFACE LOW WILL BE
ROUGHLY OVER SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD. THE HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN CIRCULATION
SHOULD STILL MOSTLY BE TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL
AIR AT THAT POINT...BUT ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AFTER 09Z OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY/FLINT
REGIONS...RESPECTIVELY. LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH TONIGHT WITH THE
INSULATING CLOUD DECK...EXPECTING MAINLY LOW 40S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL DIVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THEN TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG RIDGING EXTENDING UP THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH...LOW PRESSURE NOW NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LAKE HURON FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO LAKE ERIE FRIDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GUSTY
WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WORKING DOWN INTO THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECTING BEST COVERAGE
AND PRECIP RATES AS DEFORMATION AXIS AND EVEN A WEAK TROWAL ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. DEFORMATION AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER A
BIT LONGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO DROP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TIMING
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM VERY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY LOOK LIGHT AT THIS TIME...AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FROM OFF LAKE HURON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS AND STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. LAKE-MODIFIED AIRMASS ALSO MAKES PRECIP TYPE A
LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING...AS IT COULD KEEP PRECIP RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

OTHER CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE STRONG CORE OF 50 KT WINDS AT 925-
850MB WORKING DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR GUSTS TO 45 OR PERHAPS EVEN 50 MPH TO WORK DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS LAPSE RATES ALSO STEEPEN. MODELS HAVE WAVERED A BIT ON
THIS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...AND DO NOT SHOW STRONG DESCENT LIKE WE
HAVE HAD WITH WIND EVENTS IN THE PAST. WILL WATCH FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF MODEL RUNS...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS.
THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD PUT AN END TO
LAKE EFFECT FROM OFF LAKE HURON BY AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SET US
UP FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...WITH LOWS SOLIDLY IN
THE 20S.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST ON SUNDAY...FLOW
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN RECOVERS FROM THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S
BY TUESDAY. A SOUTHWEST JET WILL THEN USHER IN PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCATION
AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT IS UP FOR DEBATE...SO THERE COULD A
LARGE TEMP SWING/ERROR ON DAYS 6-7.

MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
TO SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...IT WILL PULL AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD AIR WILL FILL IN OVER THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS...ALLOWING A STRONG CORE OF WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
LAKE SURFACE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
LAKE HURON ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
AREA. LARGE WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
HOWEVER...NOT DROPPING BELOW 4 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ363-421-
     422-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ442-443-
     463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 302148
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
548 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&


.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&


.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJL
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...MQT
MARINE...MQT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 302148
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
548 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&


.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&


.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJL
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...MQT
MARINE...MQT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 302030
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
430 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 155 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 302026
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NW ONTARIO(N OF KINL) DIVING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SHRTWV SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NE MN AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NRN MN AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF ONTARIO WHERE
VISIBILIITES HAD DROPPED AOB 1SM. A WEAK SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI ALSO WAS BRINGING SOME SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH NRN UPPER
MI. STRONG NRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NRN MN BETWEEN 1015MB LOW
PRES OVER CNTRL UPPE R MI AND A 1036 MB HIGH OVER SASK INTO WRN
MANITOBA. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE INTO NW MN
WITH THE PRES RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV...850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY 06Z AND
TO -12C BY 12Z (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR 7C) AND STRONG CYCLONIC NRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW...MAINLY BTWN 03Z-09Z. ALTHOUGH SLR VALUES INTO THE
10/1-15/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH QPF IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
RANGE...THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE OVER THE WARMER GROUND AND ROAD SURFACES THAT WERE STILL
NEAR 40F. LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THE STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW IN WEST AND N CNTRL UPPER WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WEST AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 6
INCHES N CNTRL. A LATER CHANGEVER TO SNOW AND GREATER MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORE TO AN INCH OR
TWO. OVER THE SOUTH...ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 03Z-09Z WITH A
FST 5 MB 3 HOUR PRES RISE AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND WAVES MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.

FRIDAY...EXPECT THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING AS STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 5K FT. IN ADDITION MORE ACYC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE SFC RIDGE APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP LES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON
HOW QUICKLY LINGERING LK EFFECT SNOW WL DIMINISH ON FRI NGT AND THEN
ON POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACCOMPANYING NEXT SHRTWV FCST TO SHIFT E
THRU SRN CANADA. EXPECT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI NGT TO RISE TO
AOA NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER SW FLOW/UPR RDGING IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. BUT COLDER AIR WL RETURN BY
MID WEEK AS THE SHRTWV HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN UPR TROF IN SE CANADA.

FRI NGT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE
OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI BY 12Z
SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN BELTS ACRS
THE NCENTRAL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS WL DIMINISH AS THE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND THE SUB INVRN LVL MSTR
WARMS ABV -10C/THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU
MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER
THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING
TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO
THE TEENS IN SOME PLACES. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
FCST TEMPS FOR THE INTERIOR W.

SAT THRU SUN...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX ON SAT WITH SFC RDG AXIS/DRY
AIRMASS SHIFTING SLOWLY E TO OVER THE SAULT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS DRIFTING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS MAY MOVE INTO
THE W IN THE AFTN...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND RETURN SLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HI THAT IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TOWARD 2C BY
00Z SUN OVER THE W SHOULD ALLOW SFC MAX TEMPS THERE TO REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. COMBINATION OF INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF SLOWLY
DEPARTING RDG AXIS/COME HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL ON
SAT NGT. THE LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20 WL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI/FLATTER PRES GRADIENT AND LOWER PWAT.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP WL SEE HIER TEMPS AOA 30. UNDER SOME HI
CLDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING
TO H875-9. BUT GUSTY S WINDS UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING HI/FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING
H925 WINDS FCST AS HI AS 30 KTS WL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER.

SUN NGT...STEADY SSW WIND BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD LK
WINNIPEG IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV LIFTING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA WL ADVECT
HIER PWAT UP TO ARND 0.75 INCH /ABOUT 150 PCT OF NORMAL/. BUT
ABSENCE OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV
SO FAR TO THE NW AND RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE FCST SDNGS WARRANTS
GOING DRY FCST. WINDS/INCRSG PWAT WL LIMIT THE NOCTURNAL TEMP DROP.

MON THRU TUE NGT...AS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG ON
MON SHIFTS E INTO NW ONTARIO ON TUE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL SHIFT
THRU THE UPR LKS...CROSSING THE CWA ON MON NGT. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK
OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE N WL TAKE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N OF UPR MI AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEPER MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE REMAINING TO THE S...12HR
H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M OVER UPR MI JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHC POPS. THE
PTYPE WL BE RA INTO AT LEAST LATE TUE. THE MODELS THAT SHOW A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROF THEN SHOW CYC WNW FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE LO IN
ONTARIO DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -5 TO -7C TUE NGT IN THE PRESENCE
OF HIER RH THRU H7...SO SOME SN MAY MIX WITH THE RA AS THE PCPN
TRANSITIONS TOWARD A LK EFFECT MODE WITHIN THE CYC FLOW.

EXTENDED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING NEAR THE UPR LKS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHC OF RA/SN AND SOME LK EFFECT
SN IN ITS WAKE. BUT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SCENARIOS AS FAR AS THE
TRACK/ INTENSITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS TOO LARGE TO DEVIATE FM A
CONSENSUS FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY OFF
THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW LAKE ENHANCED PCPN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING. WHEN THIS OCCURS...EXPECT VSBYS
TO DROP TO IFR. THE LOWEST VSBY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED AT SAW. LOOKS
LIKE THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING AT LEAST AND THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECT N TO NW GALES TO 35-45 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN ACCOMPANYING LO PRES OVER
LOWER MI AND HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SURGE OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER N WINDS TO THE LAKE
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE
HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. ONCE THE HI
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN TO THE E OF LO
PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR S WINDS UP TO
20-25 KTS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON. AS THE LO SHIFTS ACROSS
ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE W-NW UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ITS
WAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     TO NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1
     PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>006-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ004>006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KDTX 302022
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
422 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A VIGOROUS...TIGHT PV ANOMALY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN MN AT 17Z. 12Z SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE SHORT
TERM...PLACING IT NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY. CURRENTLY
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL HEIGHT
FALLS/WEAK WAA AS THE UPPER FEATURE NEARS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE
MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD WITH TIME INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASCENT INCREASES FURTHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE NEARS. SURFACE LOW WILL BE
ROUGHLY OVER SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD. THE HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN CIRCULATION
SHOULD STILL MOSTLY BE TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL
AIR AT THAT POINT...BUT ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AFTER 09Z OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY/FLINT
REGIONS...RESPECTIVELY. LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH TONIGHT WITH THE
INSULATING CLOUD DECK...EXPECTING MAINLY LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL DIVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THEN TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG RIDGING EXTENDING UP THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH...LOW PRESSURE NOW NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LAKE HURON FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO LAKE ERIE FRIDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GUSTY
WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WORKING DOWN INTO THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECTING BEST COVERAGE
AND PRECIP RATES AS DEFORMATION AXIS AND EVEN A WEAK TROWAL ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. DEFORMATION AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER A
BIT LONGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO DROP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TIMING
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM VERY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY LOOK LIGHT AT THIS TIME...AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FROM OFF LAKE HURON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS AND STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. LAKE-MODIFIED AIRMASS ALSO MAKES PRECIP TYPE A
LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING...AS IT COULD KEEP PRECIP RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

OTHER CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE STRONG CORE OF 50 KT WINDS AT 925-
850MB WORKING DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR GUSTS TO 45 OR PERHAPS EVEN 50 MPH TO WORK DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS LAPSE RATES ALSO STEEPEN. MODELS HAVE WAVERED A BIT ON
THIS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...AND DO NOT SHOW STRONG DESCENT LIKE WE
HAVE HAD WITH WIND EVENTS IN THE PAST. WILL WATCH FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF MODEL RUNS...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS.
THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD PUT AN END TO
LAKE EFFECT FROM OFF LAKE HURON BY AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SET US
UP FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...WITH LOWS SOLIDLY IN
THE 20S.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST ON SUNDAY...FLOW
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN RECOVERS FROM THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S
BY TUESDAY. A SOUTHWEST JET WILL THEN USHER IN PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCATION
AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT IS UP FOR DEBATE...SO THERE COULD A
LARGE TEMP SWING/ERROR ON DAYS 6-7.

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
TO SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...IT WILL PULL AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD AIR WILL FILL IN OVER THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS...ALLOWING A STRONG CORE OF WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
LAKE SURFACE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
LAKE HURON ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
AREA. LARGE WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
HOWEVER...NOT DROPPING BELOW 4 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 120 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

//DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY SOLID VFR STRATOCU DECK IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF LOWER MI SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO A STRONG SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME LIGHER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.
BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AGAIN
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH/TURN TO SNOW FRIDAY
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN. THE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD...BUT IFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. PREFER TO LEAVE IFR
AND SNOW MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE AND REFINE IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

FOR DTW...SUB-5KFT DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH WHETHER BASES WILL LIFT AND/OR CIGS WILL SCATTER FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AS INCREASING ASCENT ACTS TO RAISE THE INVERSION.
THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY SOME CLEARING OVER LAKE
MI/INDIANA...HOWEVER WILL SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH DEPICT
CLOUD BASES REMAINING STEADY.

ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT NEAR. BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL TEND TO MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING
AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.


//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT THROUGH THIS
  EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ363-421-
     422-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ442-443-
     463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....DT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 301947
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
347 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OVERVIEW: LARGER SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM THIS
MORNING WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONE PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE (APPARENT
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA) IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY (AND OUR NEXT BIG SHOT OF COLD
AIR) DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...ALREADY SEEING SOME MODEST FORCING ALONG THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT CLOSER TO HOME...BROAD SFC
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME DRYING AND BREAK IN
THE PRECIP FOR NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. STRONG SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DROP
INTO THE FAR NRN LAKES REGION BY EVENING BEFORE CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SPIN
UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THAT HELPS DRAG THAT COLDER
AIR INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US WIND AND COLDER TEMPS AND THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS WINTER SEASON...JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

AS FOR TODAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/SRN CANADA WHERE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE
AND THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALREADY GETTING SQUEEZED. THIS REGION OF
MODEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IMPACTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL (SPOTTY
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS
MORNING).

TONIGHT...REALLY GETS INTERESTING. POTENT SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLD AIR DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SPINNING UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
ATTENDING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULLSEYE OF DEEP LAYER QG-UPWARD
ASCENT DROPS DOWN INTO THE STATE WITH THE WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. BUT AFTER
FROPA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN BY MORNING. BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR SLAMMING DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION WILL TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING (PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). ACCUMULATIONS...SEEM MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANGE MAY
SIMPLY COME TO LATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH AND/OR
IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THUNDER CHANCES...OF COURSE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND FORECAST
SOUNDING TEMP PROFILES FOLD OVER RATHER QUICKLY AS POCKET OF COLD
AIR COMES IN ALOFT...RESULTING IN SOME STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IT MAY BE A STRETCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDER OVERNIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY) AND HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 155 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES AND DEEP MIXING ENSUES OVER THE WATERS. FULLY
ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KMQT 301943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOCUSES ON POTENTIAL MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
FOR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WEST OF HUDSON BAY DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

LATEST 09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING SE
THROUGH ERN SD WHILE THE SHORTWAVE OF BIGGER CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS
NOW LOCATED WEST OF HUDSON BAY. MAIN FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE OVER ERN
SD IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH ONLY WEAK
FORCING EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA FROM WEAK MID-LVL TROF OVERHEAD. AS A
RESULT EXPECT ONLY ISOLD SHRA...POSSIBLY A SNOW FLURRY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. FORCING WITH MODERATE TO STRONG Q-VECT
CONV WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY LATE IN DAY AHEAD OF
HUDSON BAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. COMBINATION OF FORCING AND ARRIVAL OF COLDER 8H TEMPS
OF -5 TO -6C IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW SHRA/LAKE
ENAHNCED SHRA TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER NW AND NCNTRL COUNTIES LATE IN
DAY AS WINDS SHIFT FM W TO NW.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED CAA IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LOWER 8H
TEMPS TO -11C TO -12C AS NOTED ON MODELS. MODEL WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND CRITICAL 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST A QUICK
TRANSITION FM RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING IN
WEST...LATE EVENING CENTRAL AND EARLY OVERNIGHT EAST. MESOSCALE
MODEL AVERAGED QPF FROM .2-.4 IN WEST TO .3-.6 IN NCNTRL AND A
GENERAL 10-12/1 SNOW/WATER RATIO SHOULD YIELD 2-4 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN COUNTIES AND COULD YIELD 3 TO POSSIBLY 8
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL COUNTIES. MODERATE SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKER WEST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND SHORTWAVE AND INVERSION HGTS BEGIN TO LOWER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS IN WEST TO MARGINAL ADVISORY AMTS. FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT WITH ADVISORY AMOUNTS OVER BARAGA-MQT WHERE CYCLONIC
CONVERGENT LOW-LVL FLOW WILL LINGER LONGER AND FAVORABLE NRLY FETCH
SHOULD YIELD INLAND TOTAL SNOW AMTS SOLIDLY IN ADVISORY CATEGORY 4-7
BEFORE SNOW TAPER OFF FRI MORNING. WRN ALGER SHOULD ALSO SHOULD ALSO
SEE ADVISORY AMTS OF 4-5 INCHES ALTHOUGH SNOW WON`T LIKELY START
ACCUMULATING THERE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. NRN DELTA COULD ALSO PUSH
ADVISORY AMTS DURING THE EVENT BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HAVE ALL WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MIDDAY.

NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS SO HAVE
ALSO ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH JUST INLAND FM THE LAKE COULD ALSO CAUSE
SOME BLOWING OF SNOW AS WELL AND THIS IS MENTIONED IN THE WSW
STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON
HOW QUICKLY LINGERING LK EFFECT SNOW WL DIMINISH ON FRI NGT AND THEN
ON POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACCOMPANYING NEXT SHRTWV FCST TO SHIFT E
THRU SRN CANADA. EXPECT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI NGT TO RISE TO
AOA NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER SW FLOW/UPR RDGING IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. BUT COLDER AIR WL RETURN BY
MID WEEK AS THE SHRTWV HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN UPR TROF IN SE CANADA.

FRI NGT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE
OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI BY 12Z
SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN BELTS ACRS
THE NCENTRAL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS WL DIMINISH AS THE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND THE SUB INVRN LVL MSTR
WARMS ABV -10C/THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU
MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER
THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING
TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO
THE TEENS IN SOME PLACES. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
FCST TEMPS FOR THE INTERIOR W.

SAT THRU SUN...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX ON SAT WITH SFC RDG AXIS/DRY
AIRMASS SHIFTING SLOWLY E TO OVER THE SAULT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS DRIFTING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS MAY MOVE INTO
THE W IN THE AFTN...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND RETURN SLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HI THAT IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TOWARD 2C BY
00Z SUN OVER THE W SHOULD ALLOW SFC MAX TEMPS THERE TO REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. COMBINATION OF INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF SLOWLY
DEPARTING RDG AXIS/COME HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL ON
SAT NGT. THE LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20 WL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI/FLATTER PRES GRADIENT AND LOWER PWAT.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP WL SEE HIER TEMPS AOA 30. UNDER SOME HI
CLDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING
TO H875-9. BUT GUSTY S WINDS UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING HI/FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING
H925 WINDS FCST AS HI AS 30 KTS WL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER.

SUN NGT...STEADY SSW WIND BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD LK
WINNIPEG IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV LIFTING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA WL ADVECT
HIER PWAT UP TO ARND 0.75 INCH /ABOUT 150 PCT OF NORMAL/. BUT
ABSENCE OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV
SO FAR TO THE NW AND RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE FCST SDNGS WARRANTS
GOING DRY FCST. WINDS/INCRSG PWAT WL LIMIT THE NOCTURNAL TEMP DROP.

MON THRU TUE NGT...AS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG ON
MON SHIFTS E INTO NW ONTARIO ON TUE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL SHIFT
THRU THE UPR LKS...CROSSING THE CWA ON MON NGT. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK
OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE N WL TAKE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N OF UPR MI AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEPER MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE REMAINING TO THE S...12HR
H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M OVER UPR MI JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHC POPS. THE
PTYPE WL BE RA INTO AT LEAST LATE TUE. THE MODELS THAT SHOW A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROF THEN SHOW CYC WNW FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE LO IN
ONTARIO DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -5 TO -7C TUE NGT IN THE PRESENCE
OF HIER RH THRU H7...SO SOME SN MAY MIX WITH THE RA AS THE PCPN
TRANSITIONS TOWARD A LK EFFECT MODE WITHIN THE CYC FLOW.

EXTENDED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING NEAR THE UPR LKS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHC OF RA/SN AND SOME LK EFFECT
SN IN ITS WAKE. BUT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SCENARIOS AS FAR AS THE
TRACK/ INTENSITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS TOO LARGE TO DEVIATE FM A
CONSENSUS FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY OFF
THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW LAKE ENHANCED PCPN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING. WHEN THIS OCCURS...EXPECT VSBYS
TO DROP TO IFR. THE LOWEST VSBY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED AT SAW. LOOKS
LIKE THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING AT LEAST AND THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECT N TO NW GALES TO 35-45 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN ACCOMPANYING LO PRES OVER
LOWER MI AND HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SURGE OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER N WINDS TO THE LAKE
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE
HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. ONCE THE HI
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN TO THE E OF LO
PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR S WINDS UP TO
20-25 KTS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON. AS THE LO SHIFTS ACROSS
ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE W-NW UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ITS
WAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     TO NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1
     PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>006-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ004>006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301938
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY.  RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  THEN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY.  BY FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS.  WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STRONG INTO
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...AND 45
MPH INLAND.  THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY 40 TO 45.  ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY...INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE COMING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS COLD ADVECTION POURS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT.  WILL BE
HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AS TREE LIMBS COULD COME DOWN
ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  RAIN WILL SPREAD IN WITH THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ENHANCED BY THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS H8 TEMPS DIP TO AROUND -4C
BY 12Z FRI.

EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS H8 TEMPS CONTINUE DOWNWARD TOWARD -8C BY FRIDAY
EVENING.  THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEFORMATION ZONE COMING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD
COME IN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT AS THE PCPN INTENSIFIES EXPECT IT
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER AS WINDS PIVOT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST.  A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY PUT DOWN UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
THE FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION.  AND ALSO
OVER THE SE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  THE SE
CWA MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE WIND...MIXING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.  WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.  IT SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO
ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM FRIDAY/S ACTIVE WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN A COLD NIGHT...WHERE LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE 20S IN MANY AREAS. THE FAR NORTHEAST UP TOWARDS
CLARE WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 20.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST THE RIDGE ACROSS CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL PUSH BACK TO NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. IN
ADDITION...FRIDAY MORNING STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH VARIABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS IN THE 3100-5000FT RANGE.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PUSH IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 04Z
AND 09Z TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN AFTER 04Z WITH AVIATION
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TRENDING TO IFR AFTER 12Z DUE TO LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL BEGIN MIXING IN AFTER 15Z.

WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...SO IMPACTING KMKG AROUND 12Z AND HITTING KJXN AROUND 17Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS TO IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING WHICH GOES INTO AFFECT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.  GUST APPROACHING STORM FORCE IS EXPECTED FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED...THE PERIOD OF PCPN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK










000
FXUS63 KGRR 301835
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
235 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON HALLOWEEN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE DAY. ALSO
MANY AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.

INITIAL THOUGHTS ON THE FRIDAY FORECAST. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS TO 45 MPH
SEEM PLAUSIBLE INLAND...AND MAYBE 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT...ALONG WITH WIND
CHILL READINGS DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S. DEFORMATION RAIN AND SNOW
PUSHES IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW.  STILL
THINK ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS 00Z MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE INTENSE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
THE COLD TEMPERATURES... ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER. HOWEVER THE SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TOO.

P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO ARRIVE WHILE THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD.
THIS COULD MAKE THINGS VERY INTERESTING AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z WHILE THERE IS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVERHEAD.

IF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE PRECIP RATES OCCUR ON FRIDAY... WHICH LOOKS
QUITE POSSIBLE...SOME QUICK WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION
NEAR/NORTH OF U.S. 10... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WARMTH OF THE GROUND THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON... BUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES COULD EASILY
OVERCOME THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO FAIR SKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND GIVE US A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN. INSTABILITY IS LOW SO THUNDER ISN/T EXPECTED. A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM. A STRONG FETCH OFF THE
GULF WILL RIDE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE`LL START TO DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES BY. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ISN/T
COMING OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA SO WE WON/T SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
DROP BEHIND IT.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY TO
THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. IN
ADDITION...FRIDAY MORNING STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH VARIABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS IN THE 3100-5000FT RANGE.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PUSH IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 04Z
AND 09Z TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN AFTER 04Z WITH AVIATION
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TRENDING TO IFR AFTER 12Z DUE TO LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL BEGIN MIXING IN AFTER 15Z.

WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...SO IMPACTING KMKG AROUND 12Z AND HITTING KJXN AROUND 17Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS TO IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS COULD
OCCUR... WHICH IS STORM WARNING CRITERIA... HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A GALE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 301756
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE INCHING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL BUILD
ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY TODAY...BUT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OVERVIEW: LARGER SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM THIS
MORNING WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONE PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE (APPARENT
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA) IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY (AND OUR NEXT BIG SHOT OF COLD
AIR) DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...ALREADY SEEING SOME MODEST FORCING ALONG THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT CLOSER TO HOME...BROAD SFC
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME DRYING AND BREAK IN
THE PRECIP FOR NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. STRONG SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DROP
INTO THE FAR NRN LAKES REGION BY EVENING BEFORE CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SPIN
UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THAT HELPS DRAG THAT COLDER
AIR INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US WIND AND COLDER TEMPS AND THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS WINTER SEASON...JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

AS FOR TODAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/SRN CANADA WHERE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE
AND THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALREADY GETTING SQUEEZED. THIS REGION OF
MODEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IMPACTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL (SPOTTY
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS
MORNING).

TONIGHT...REALLY GETS INTERESTING. POTENT SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLD AIR DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SPINNING UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
ATTENDING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULLSEYE OF DEEP LAYER QG-UPWARD
ASCENT DROPS DOWN INTO THE STATE WITH THE WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. BUT AFTER
FROPA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN BY MORNING. BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR SLAMMING DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION WILL TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING (PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). ACCUMULATIONS...SEEM MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANGE MAY
SIMPLY COME TO LATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH AND/OR
IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THUNDER CHANCES...OF COURSE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND FORECAST
SOUNDING TEMP PROFILES FOLD OVER RATHER QUICKLY AS POCKET OF COLD
AIR COMES IN ALOFT...RESULTING IN SOME STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IT MAY BE A STRETCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDER OVERNIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY) AND HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

..."SCARY" COLD HALLOWEEN BUT THEN SOME MODERATION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF SNOW AND WIND HALLOWEEN
MORNING...AND A VERY COLD TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME. GALES EXPECTED ON
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN. NOT MUCH EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: QUITE THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY...
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT BRIEFLY...WITH STRONG JET ENERGY CURRENTLY HELPING
DIG TROUGHING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THAT IN TURN IS LEADING TO
RAPID HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIC NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THUS ALLOWING FOR ALREADY QUITE STRONG VORT
ENERGY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NUNAVUT TO DIG NEARLY DUE SOUTHWARD THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS EXACT SETUP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING FOR TREMENDOUS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WITH THIS TROUGH ENDING UP WELL TO
OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. THAT OVERALL
SETUP WILL FORCE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR
THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SWITCH TO STRONGER
NORTH PACIFIC JET ENERGY FORCING THE WESTERN RIDGE TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES FOR A TIME INTO VERY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT TOO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED (TIS THE TIME OF YEAR) AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS
BY MONDAY EVENTUALLY LIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME TOWARD MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...WITH A VERY WAVY PATTERN EXPECTED THEREAFTER INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING A CLASSIC UP AND DOWN FALL WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE GREAT LAKES.

LET`S BREAK IT DOWN:

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: ALL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HERE. APPROACH
OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHARPENING TROUGH WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 15Z FRIDAY AT THE LATEST...WITH QUITE
THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR RUSHING IN ALOFT IN ITS WAKE (H8 TEMPS DIVING
TOWARD -10C OR COLDER THROUGH THE DAY). SUCH SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF
SAID TROUGHING ALOFT WILL INCITE A QUICK DEFORMATION FORCING
RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUING TO
STRONGLY SUGGEST AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION BISECTING THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...EASING SOUTH
WITH TIME AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTH
AFTER 18Z. THE REAL KICKER WITH THIS SETUP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THICKNESSES RAPIDLY COLLAPSE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
AND STRONG LIFT COMPENSATES FOR AN INITIALLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER.
EVEN SEE SOME HINTS OF THE STRONGEST LIFT BISECTING THE DEEPENING
DGZ...IMPLYING THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE
PRECIP RATES/FLAKE SIZE AS WE ACTIVATE DENDRITES. ADD INTO THAT A
LIKELY LAKE COMPONENT GIVEN SUCH STRONG COLD ADVECTION/FORCING AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR WHAT COULD BE A
QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES FALLING BENEATH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CORE...
PARTICULARLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE
BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP ENHANCEMENT COMES TOGETHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING VERY QUICKLY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE THE WIND COMPONENT WITH SAID COLD FRONT AS
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEP MIXING TO TAP INTO AN IMPRESSIVE CORE OF 40-50 KNOTS IN THE
925-850MB LAYER. FORECAST RAOBS FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE HINTED AT
SURFACE GUSTS PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE ADVERTISED. THROW IN THAT WIND COMPONENT
WITH SNOW AND THERE COULD WELL BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OVERCOMING INITIALLY WARMER ROAD TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THIS HARD IN THE HWO/WEB GRAPHICS AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST
SNOW OF THE SEASON AND THESE USUALLY CAUSE QUITE A FEW ISSUES.

SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORCING WANES AND MOISTURE DEPTH SHRINKS CONSIDERABLY. AT THE SAME
TIME...CONTINUED COOLER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL ONLY GROW THE LAKE
INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T VALUES PUSHING 20C. LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HURT THE CAUSE BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS HUGGING BOTH THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON COASTS...
PERHAPS PUSHING A BIT MORE INTO NORTHEAST LOWER AS THE FLOW THERE IS
BACKED A BIT MORE NORTHEASTERLY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOULD SHRINK
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AIDS IN SHOVING BANDING OFFSHORE...BUT THAT
SAME REGIME SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST HELP BUILD RENEWED CLOUD COVER
BACK THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE
A COUPLE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPEST UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST AS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY WORKS OVERHEAD.
RESIDUAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH A LOWERING
INVERSION ARGUES FOR PESKY STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG DRYING AND
WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR QUICK CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIR FAVORING WHAT COULD BE SOME
QUITE CHILLY TEMPS. WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS DIP INTO THE TEENS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MANY SPOTS
WILL BE STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CRANKS
UP ALOFT...BUT WITH NO PRECIP THREAT GIVEN A VERY DRY SUB-750MB
LAYER. STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MAY DELIVER A COUPLE
SPRINKLES BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DOUBTFUL AS THE BEST ASCENT LIES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST LAKES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RESULTANT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THOUGH TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS A BIT IN QUESTION. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY
AT THE MOMENT AS OUR NEXT BOUT OF UPPER TROUGHING WORKS OVERHEAD BUT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES DOWN LOW. TEMPS MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES AND DEEP MIXING ENSUES OVER THE WATERS. FULLY
ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 155 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KMQT 301755
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
155 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOCUSES ON POTENTIAL MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
FOR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WEST OF HUDSON BAY DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

LATEST 09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING SE
THROUGH ERN SD WHILE THE SHORTWAVE OF BIGGER CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS
NOW LOCATED WEST OF HUDSON BAY. MAIN FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE OVER ERN
SD IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH ONLY WEAK
FORCING EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA FROM WEAK MID-LVL TROF OVERHEAD. AS A
RESULT EXPECT ONLY ISOLD SHRA...POSSIBLY A SNOW FLURRY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. FORCING WITH MODERATE TO STRONG Q-VECT
CONV WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY LATE IN DAY AHEAD OF
HUDSON BAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. COMBINATION OF FORCING AND ARRIVAL OF COLDER 8H TEMPS
OF -5 TO -6C IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW SHRA/LAKE
ENAHNCED SHRA TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER NW AND NCNTRL COUNTIES LATE IN
DAY AS WINDS SHIFT FM W TO NW.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED CAA IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LOWER 8H
TEMPS TO -11C TO -12C AS NOTED ON MODELS. MODEL WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND CRITICAL 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST A QUICK
TRANSITION FM RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING IN
WEST...LATE EVENING CENTRAL AND EARLY OVERNIGHT EAST. MESOSCALE
MODEL AVERAGED QPF FROM .2-.4 IN WEST TO .3-.6 IN NCNTRL AND A
GENERAL 10-12/1 SNOW/WATER RATIO SHOULD YIELD 2-4 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN COUNTIES AND COULD YIELD 3 TO POSSIBLY 8
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL COUNTIES. MODERATE SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKER WEST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND SHORTWAVE AND INVERSION HGTS BEGIN TO LOWER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS IN WEST TO MARGINAL ADVISORY AMTS. FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT WITH ADVISORY AMOUNTS OVER BARAGA-MQT WHERE CYCLONIC
CONVERGENT LOW-LVL FLOW WILL LINGER LONGER AND FAVORABLE NRLY FETCH
SHOULD YIELD INLAND TOTAL SNOW AMTS SOLIDLY IN ADVISORY CATEGORY 4-7
BEFORE SNOW TAPER OFF FRI MORNING. WRN ALGER SHOULD ALSO SHOULD ALSO
SEE ADVISORY AMTS OF 4-5 INCHES ALTHOUGH SNOW WON`T LIKELY START
ACCUMULATING THERE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. NRN DELTA COULD ALSO PUSH
ADVISORY AMTS DURING THE EVENT BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HAVE ALL WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MIDDAY.

NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS SO HAVE
ALSO ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH JUST INLAND FM THE LAKE COULD ALSO CAUSE
SOME BLOWING OF SNOW AS WELL AND THIS IS MENTIONED IN THE WSW
STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NAM SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI WITH A
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. ON FRI WHILE THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE
THEN REMAINS IN THE PLAINS THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THE DEEP TROUGH
MOVING TO THE ERN SEABOARD.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. NAM AND GFS SHOW
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -10C TO -12C 12Z FRI WARMING TO -2C TO
-6C BY 12Z SAT AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES FROM 6C TO
8C...THIS IS ENOUGH ON FRI AND FRI EVENING TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW ON FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO HANG ON INTO FRI NIGHT WITH SLOWLY
DIMINISHING POPS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SAT AND SAT NIGHT LOOK DRY FOR
NOW WITH FURTHER MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING ENOUGH TO GET RID OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 12Z SUN. THE RIDGE
MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING. MORE UPPER TROUGHING
COMES IN FOR WED. IT WILL START OFF DRY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND
THEN WET THROUGH WED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN MON NIGHT AND
TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY OFF
THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW LAKE ENHANCED PCPN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING. WHEN THIS OCCURS...EXPECT VSBYS
TO DROP TO IFR. THE LOWEST VSBY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED AT SAW. LOOKS
LIKE THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING AT LEAST AND THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...EXPECT GALES UP TO 45KTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALES WILL
COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20KTS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT (WINDS UP TO
25KTS) AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     TO NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1
     PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>006-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ004>006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KDTX 301720
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
120 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY SOLID VFR STRATOCU DECK IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF LOWER MI SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO A STRONG SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME LIGHER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.
BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AGAIN
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH/TURN TO SNOW FRIDAY
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN. THE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD...BUT IFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. PREFER TO LEAVE IFR
AND SNOW MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE AND REFINE IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

FOR DTW...SUB-5KFT DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH WHETHER BASES WILL LIFT AND/OR CIGS WILL SCATTER FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AS INCREASING ASCENT ACTS TO RAISE THE INVERSION.
THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY SOME CLEARING OVER LAKE
MI/INDIANA...HOWEVER WILL SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH DEPICT
CLOUD BASES REMAINING STEADY.

ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT NEAR. BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL TEND TO MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING
AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.


//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT THROUGH THIS
  EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING...KEEPING WINDS CALM AND CONDITIONS RELATIVELY DRY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DESPITE MORNING SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TOWARDS
THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL STILL BE FAR TO THE NORTHWEST...RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. WITH COLD AIR STILL
IN PLACE AND INCREASING CLOUDS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES...WITH SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION.

THE POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM THE SOO TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. THE REAL COLD AIR WITH THIS
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF A BIT...WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...THE
MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT A
BIT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND NOT RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM WITH LOWS AROUND 40
DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE LAG OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

LONG TERM...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION/
PV ANOMALY OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...ADVANCING SOUTHEAST.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE 00Z MODELS (GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/EURO) STILL ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND CLOSING OFF OF THE 500 MB LOW.
NAM/GFS ARE CLOSING THE 500 MB OFF FASTER AND ARE FARTHER
EAST...OVER WESTERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE EURO REMAINS OPEN
A BIT LONGER AND IS MUCH FARTHER WEST...WITH THE CANADIAN BEING THE
FARTHER EAST...TRACKING IN BETWEEN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION...A VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB)
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SETTING UP...WITH THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE WARM WATERS (LOWER 50S) OF LAKE
HURON FURTHERING STRENGTHENING OR AT THE VERY LEAST MAINTAINING
FRONTAL ZONE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SKEWING THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD
THE NAM...WHICH HOPEFULLY CAN FACTOR IN THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCE OF
LAKE HURON A BIT BETTER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE PREDOMINATELY
RAIN/NON-ACCUMULATING WET SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS NAM
MAINTAINS SURFACE DEW PTS COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
21Z...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING THEN ATTEMPTING TO MAKE INROADS TOWARD
THE U.S. 23 CORRIDOR. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE EAST OF
U.S. 23 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850-700 MB MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE
SEEN ARCHING BACK FRIDAY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LAKE HURON
ENHANCEMENT TAKING PLACE BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS OF -5 TO -10 C. THE
STRONG INFLUENCE/FLOW OFF LAKE HURON LOOKS TO BE THE OVERRIDING
FACTOR IN THE EQUATION KEEPING SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE LAYER JUST WARM
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AS BOTH
GFS/NAM INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE -3 C EAST OF U.S
23...WITH SURFACE DEW PTS STILL HOVERING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 23...DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY WIN OUT...ESPECIALLY IF
ONE IS TO BELIEVE THE EURO...BUT IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES MAKE IT
THIS FAR WEST...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THERE
IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM (PREDOMINATELY CONTINUED
POSITIVE LOW LEVEL ASCENT)...AND PRECIPITATION DRAG ISSUES TO
CONTEND WITH. RISE/FALL COUPLET WORKING THROUGH IS ALSO NOTHING
SPECIAL 10-12 MB...AND THUS EXPECTING GUSTS TO TOP OUT IN THE 35 TO
40 MPH RANGE...THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE HURON
LAKESHORE WHERE HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND....SHUTTING OFF THE LAKE EFFECT AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ATTEMPT TO MODERATE. THE PROBLEM IS SURFACE
HIGH BUILD IN WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CRATER (20S)
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED...AS SUN
ANGLE/OVERALL INSOLATION DECLINES AS WE HEAD INTO NOVEMBER. 925 MB
FORECASTED (EURO)TEMPS TO CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE...SUPPORTIVE OF
MID 40S FOR HIGHS.

MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVES TODAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS
ON TRACK TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER
MUCH OF LAKE HURON. THE STRONG PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE...AND WILL
LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW 4 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DT
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301520
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1120 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON HALLOWEEN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE DAY. ALSO
MANY AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.

INITIAL THOUGHTS ON THE FRIDAY FORECAST. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS TO 45 MPH
SEEM PLAUSIBLE INLAND...AND MAYBE 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT...ALONG WITH WIND
CHILL READINGS DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S. DEFORMATION RAIN AND SNOW
PUSHES IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW.  STILL
THINK ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS 00Z MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE INTENSE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
THE COLD TEMPERATURES... ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER. HOWEVER THE SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TOO.

P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO ARRIVE WHILE THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD.
THIS COULD MAKE THINGS VERY INTERESTING AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z WHILE THERE IS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVERHEAD.

IF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE PRECIP RATES OCCUR ON FRIDAY... WHICH LOOKS
QUITE POSSIBLE...SOME QUICK WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION
NEAR/NORTH OF U.S. 10... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WARMTH OF THE GROUND THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON... BUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES COULD EASILY
OVERCOME THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO FAIR SKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND GIVE US A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN. INSTABILITY IS LOW SO THUNDER ISN/T EXPECTED. A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM. A STRONG FETCH OFF THE
GULF WILL RIDE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE`LL START TO DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES BY. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ISN/T
COMING OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA SO WE WON/T SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
DROP BEHIND IT.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY TO
THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CIGS AROUND 3500-4000 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER
INTO MVFR CATEGORY WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

THE OUTLOOK BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY IS FOR SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS
INCLUDING NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS
DESCENDING BELOW 1000 FT AGL. THIS WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS COULD
OCCUR... WHICH IS STORM WARNING CRITERIA... HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A GALE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 301145
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON HALLOWEEN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE DAY. ALSO
MANY AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS 00Z MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE INTENSE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
THE COLD TEMPERATURES... ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER. HOWEVER THE SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TOO.

P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO ARRIVE WHILE THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD.
THIS COULD MAKE THINGS VERY INTERESTING AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z WHILE THERE IS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVERHEAD.

IF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE PRECIP RATES OCCUR ON FRIDAY... WHICH LOOKS
QUITE POSSIBLE...SOME QUICK WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION
NEAR/NORTH OF U.S. 10... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WARMTH OF THE GROUND THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON... BUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES COULD EASILY
OVERCOME THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO FAIR SKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND GIVE US A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN. INSTABILITY IS LOW SO THUNDER ISN/T EXPECTED. A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM. A STRONG FETCH OFF THE
GULF WILL RIDE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE`LL START TO DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES BY. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ISN/T
COMING OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA SO WE WON/T SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
DROP BEHIND IT.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY TO
THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CIGS AROUND 3500-4000 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER
INTO MVFR CATEGORY WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

THE OUTLOOK BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY IS FOR SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS
INCLUDING NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS
DESCENDING BELOW 1000 FT AGL. THIS WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS COULD
OCCUR... WHICH IS STORM WARNING CRITERIA... HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A GALE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KDTX 301054
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
654 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF MVFR STRATOCU FROM THE THUMB HAS MOVED OVER THE METRO
AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LAKE MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
HAS MOVED OVER MBS AND FNT AT TIMES. THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING OVER THE METRO AIRPORTS AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY AND PUSH THE CLOUDS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL THEN MAKE AN EASTWARD MOVE...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. VFR CEILING WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LIGHT RAIN BECOMES POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS
  EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING...KEEPING WINDS CALM AND CONDITIONS RELATIVELY DRY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DESPITE MORNING SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TOWARDS
THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL STILL BE FAR TO THE NORTHWEST...RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. WITH COLD AIR STILL
IN PLACE AND INCREASING CLOUDS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES...WITH SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION.

THE POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM THE SOO TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. THE REAL COLD AIR WITH THIS
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF A BIT...WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...THE
MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT A
BIT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND NOT RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM WITH LOWS AROUND 40
DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE LAG OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

LONG TERM...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION/
PV ANOMALY OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...ADVANCING SOUTHEAST.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE 00Z MODELS (GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/EURO) STILL ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND CLOSING OFF OF THE 500 MB LOW.
NAM/GFS ARE CLOSING THE 500 MB OFF FASTER AND ARE FARTHER
EAST...OVER WESTERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE EURO REMAINS OPEN
A BIT LONGER AND IS MUCH FARTHER WEST...WITH THE CANADIAN BEING THE
FARTHER EAST...TRACKING IN BETWEEN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION...A VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB)
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SETTING UP...WITH THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE WARM WATERS (LOWER 50S) OF LAKE
HURON FURTHERING STRENGTHENING OR AT THE VERY LEAST MAINTAINING
FRONTAL ZONE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SKEWING THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD
THE NAM...WHICH HOPEFULLY CAN FACTOR IN THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCE OF
LAKE HURON A BIT BETTER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE PREDOMINATELY
RAIN/NON-ACCUMULATING WET SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS NAM
MAINTAINS SURFACE DEW PTS COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
21Z...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING THEN ATTEMPTING TO MAKE INROADS TOWARD
THE U.S. 23 CORRIDOR. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE EAST OF
U.S. 23 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850-700 MB MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE
SEEN ARCHING BACK FRIDAY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LAKE HURON
ENHANCEMENT TAKING PLACE BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS OF -5 TO -10 C. THE
STRONG INFLUENCE/FLOW OFF LAKE HURON LOOKS TO BE THE OVERRIDING
FACTOR IN THE EQUATION KEEPING SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE LAYER JUST WARM
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AS BOTH
GFS/NAM INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE -3 C EAST OF U.S
23...WITH SURFACE DEW PTS STILL HOVERING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 23...DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY WIN OUT...ESPECIALLY IF
ONE IS TO BELIEVE THE EURO...BUT IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES MAKE IT
THIS FAR WEST...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THERE
IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM (PREDOMINATELY CONTINUED
POSITIVE LOW LEVEL ASCENT)...AND PRECIPITATION DRAG ISSUES TO
CONTEND WITH. RISE/FALL COUPLET WORKING THROUGH IS ALSO NOTHING
SPECIAL 10-12 MB...AND THUS EXPECTING GUSTS TO TOP OUT IN THE 35 TO
40 MPH RANGE...THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE HURON
LAKESHORE WHERE HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND....SHUTTING OFF THE LAKE EFFECT AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ATTEMPT TO MODERATE. THE PROBLEM IS SURFACE
HIGH BUILD IN WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CRATER (20S)
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED...AS SUN
ANGLE/OVERALL INSOLATION DECLINES AS WE HEAD INTO NOVEMBER. 925 MB
FORECASTED (EURO)TEMPS TO CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE...SUPPORTIVE OF
MID 40S FOR HIGHS.

MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVES TODAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS
ON TRACK TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER
MUCH OF LAKE HURON. THE STRONG PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE...AND WILL
LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW 4 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 301054
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
654 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF MVFR STRATOCU FROM THE THUMB HAS MOVED OVER THE METRO
AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LAKE MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
HAS MOVED OVER MBS AND FNT AT TIMES. THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING OVER THE METRO AIRPORTS AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY AND PUSH THE CLOUDS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL THEN MAKE AN EASTWARD MOVE...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. VFR CEILING WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LIGHT RAIN BECOMES POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS
  EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING...KEEPING WINDS CALM AND CONDITIONS RELATIVELY DRY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DESPITE MORNING SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TOWARDS
THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL STILL BE FAR TO THE NORTHWEST...RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. WITH COLD AIR STILL
IN PLACE AND INCREASING CLOUDS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES...WITH SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION.

THE POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM THE SOO TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. THE REAL COLD AIR WITH THIS
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF A BIT...WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...THE
MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT A
BIT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND NOT RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM WITH LOWS AROUND 40
DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE LAG OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

LONG TERM...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION/
PV ANOMALY OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...ADVANCING SOUTHEAST.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE 00Z MODELS (GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/EURO) STILL ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND CLOSING OFF OF THE 500 MB LOW.
NAM/GFS ARE CLOSING THE 500 MB OFF FASTER AND ARE FARTHER
EAST...OVER WESTERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE EURO REMAINS OPEN
A BIT LONGER AND IS MUCH FARTHER WEST...WITH THE CANADIAN BEING THE
FARTHER EAST...TRACKING IN BETWEEN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION...A VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB)
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SETTING UP...WITH THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE WARM WATERS (LOWER 50S) OF LAKE
HURON FURTHERING STRENGTHENING OR AT THE VERY LEAST MAINTAINING
FRONTAL ZONE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SKEWING THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD
THE NAM...WHICH HOPEFULLY CAN FACTOR IN THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCE OF
LAKE HURON A BIT BETTER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE PREDOMINATELY
RAIN/NON-ACCUMULATING WET SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS NAM
MAINTAINS SURFACE DEW PTS COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
21Z...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING THEN ATTEMPTING TO MAKE INROADS TOWARD
THE U.S. 23 CORRIDOR. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE EAST OF
U.S. 23 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850-700 MB MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE
SEEN ARCHING BACK FRIDAY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LAKE HURON
ENHANCEMENT TAKING PLACE BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS OF -5 TO -10 C. THE
STRONG INFLUENCE/FLOW OFF LAKE HURON LOOKS TO BE THE OVERRIDING
FACTOR IN THE EQUATION KEEPING SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE LAYER JUST WARM
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AS BOTH
GFS/NAM INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE -3 C EAST OF U.S
23...WITH SURFACE DEW PTS STILL HOVERING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 23...DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY WIN OUT...ESPECIALLY IF
ONE IS TO BELIEVE THE EURO...BUT IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES MAKE IT
THIS FAR WEST...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THERE
IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM (PREDOMINATELY CONTINUED
POSITIVE LOW LEVEL ASCENT)...AND PRECIPITATION DRAG ISSUES TO
CONTEND WITH. RISE/FALL COUPLET WORKING THROUGH IS ALSO NOTHING
SPECIAL 10-12 MB...AND THUS EXPECTING GUSTS TO TOP OUT IN THE 35 TO
40 MPH RANGE...THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE HURON
LAKESHORE WHERE HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND....SHUTTING OFF THE LAKE EFFECT AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ATTEMPT TO MODERATE. THE PROBLEM IS SURFACE
HIGH BUILD IN WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CRATER (20S)
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED...AS SUN
ANGLE/OVERALL INSOLATION DECLINES AS WE HEAD INTO NOVEMBER. 925 MB
FORECASTED (EURO)TEMPS TO CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE...SUPPORTIVE OF
MID 40S FOR HIGHS.

MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVES TODAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS
ON TRACK TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER
MUCH OF LAKE HURON. THE STRONG PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE...AND WILL
LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW 4 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 301020
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
620 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE INCHING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL BUILD
ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY TODAY...BUT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OVERVIEW: LARGER SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM THIS
MORNING WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONE PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE (APPARENT
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA) IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY (AND OUR NEXT BIG SHOT OF COLD
AIR) DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...ALREADY SEEING SOME MODEST FORCING ALONG THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT CLOSER TO HOME...BROAD SFC
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME DRYING AND BREAK IN
THE PRECIP FOR NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. STRONG SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DROP
INTO THE FAR NRN LAKES REGION BY EVENING BEFORE CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SPIN
UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THAT HELPS DRAG THAT COLDER
AIR INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US WIND AND COLDER TEMPS AND THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS WINTER SEASON...JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

AS FOR TODAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/SRN CANADA WHERE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE
AND THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALREADY GETTING SQUEEZED. THIS REGION OF
MODEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IMPACTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL (SPOTTY
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS
MORNING).

TONIGHT...REALLY GETS INTERESTING. POTENT SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLD AIR DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SPINNING UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
ATTENDING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULLSEYE OF DEEP LAYER QG-UPWARD
ASCENT DROPS DOWN INTO THE STATE WITH THE WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. BUT AFTER
FROPA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN BY MORNING. BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR SLAMMING DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION WILL TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING (PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). ACCUMULATIONS...SEEM MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANGE MAY
SIMPLY COME TO LATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH AND/OR
IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THUNDER CHANCES...OF COURSE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND FORECAST
SOUNDING TEMP PROFILES FOLD OVER RATHER QUICKLY AS POCKET OF COLD
AIR COMES IN ALOFT...RESULTING IN SOME STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IT MAY BE A STRETCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDER OVERNIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY) AND HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

..."SCARY" COLD HALLOWEEN BUT THEN SOME MODERATION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF SNOW AND WIND HALLOWEEN
MORNING...AND A VERY COLD TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME. GALES EXPECTED ON
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN. NOT MUCH EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: QUITE THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY...
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT BRIEFLY...WITH STRONG JET ENERGY CURRENTLY HELPING
DIG TROUGHING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THAT IN TURN IS LEADING TO
RAPID HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIC NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THUS ALLOWING FOR ALREADY QUITE STRONG VORT
ENERGY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NUNAVUT TO DIG NEARLY DUE SOUTHWARD THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS EXACT SETUP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING FOR TREMENDOUS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WITH THIS TROUGH ENDING UP WELL TO
OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. THAT OVERALL
SETUP WILL FORCE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR
THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SWITCH TO STRONGER
NORTH PACIFIC JET ENERGY FORCING THE WESTERN RIDGE TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES FOR A TIME INTO VERY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT TOO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED (TIS THE TIME OF YEAR) AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS
BY MONDAY EVENTUALLY LIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME TOWARD MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...WITH A VERY WAVY PATTERN EXPECTED THEREAFTER INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING A CLASSIC UP AND DOWN FALL WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE GREAT LAKES.

LET`S BREAK IT DOWN:

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: ALL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HERE. APPROACH
OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHARPENING TROUGH WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 15Z FRIDAY AT THE LATEST...WITH QUITE
THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR RUSHING IN ALOFT IN ITS WAKE (H8 TEMPS DIVING
TOWARD -10C OR COLDER THROUGH THE DAY). SUCH SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF
SAID TROUGHING ALOFT WILL INCITE A QUICK DEFORMATION FORCING
RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUING TO
STRONGLY SUGGEST AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION BISECTING THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...EASING SOUTH
WITH TIME AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTH
AFTER 18Z. THE REAL KICKER WITH THIS SETUP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THICKNESSES RAPIDLY COLLAPSE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
AND STRONG LIFT COMPENSATES FOR AN INITIALLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER.
EVEN SEE SOME HINTS OF THE STRONGEST LIFT BISECTING THE DEEPENING
DGZ...IMPLYING THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE
PRECIP RATES/FLAKE SIZE AS WE ACTIVATE DENDRITES. ADD INTO THAT A
LIKELY LAKE COMPONENT GIVEN SUCH STRONG COLD ADVECTION/FORCING AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR WHAT COULD BE A
QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES FALLING BENEATH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CORE...
PARTICULARLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE
BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP ENHANCEMENT COMES TOGETHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING VERY QUICKLY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE THE WIND COMPONENT WITH SAID COLD FRONT AS
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEP MIXING TO TAP INTO AN IMPRESSIVE CORE OF 40-50 KNOTS IN THE
925-850MB LAYER. FORECAST RAOBS FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE HINTED AT
SURFACE GUSTS PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE ADVERTISED. THROW IN THAT WIND COMPONENT
WITH SNOW AND THERE COULD WELL BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OVERCOMING INITIALLY WARMER ROAD TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THIS HARD IN THE HWO/WEB GRAPHICS AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST
SNOW OF THE SEASON AND THESE USUALLY CAUSE QUITE A FEW ISSUES.

SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORCING WANES AND MOISTURE DEPTH SHRINKS CONSIDERABLY. AT THE SAME
TIME...CONTINUED COOLER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL ONLY GROW THE LAKE
INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T VALUES PUSHING 20C. LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HURT THE CAUSE BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS HUGGING BOTH THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON COASTS...
PERHAPS PUSHING A BIT MORE INTO NORTHEAST LOWER AS THE FLOW THERE IS
BACKED A BIT MORE NORTHEASTERLY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOULD SHRINK
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AIDS IN SHOVING BANDING OFFSHORE...BUT THAT
SAME REGIME SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST HELP BUILD RENEWED CLOUD COVER
BACK THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE
A COUPLE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPEST UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST AS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY WORKS OVERHEAD.
RESIDUAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH A LOWERING
INVERSION ARGUES FOR PESKY STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG DRYING AND
WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR QUICK CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIR FAVORING WHAT COULD BE SOME
QUITE CHILLY TEMPS. WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS DIP INTO THE TEENS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MANY SPOTS
WILL BE STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CRANKS
UP ALOFT...BUT WITH NO PRECIP THREAT GIVEN A VERY DRY SUB-750MB
LAYER. STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MAY DELIVER A COUPLE
SPRINKLES BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DOUBTFUL AS THE BEST ASCENT LIES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST LAKES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RESULTANT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THOUGH TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS A BIT IN QUESTION. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY
AT THE MOMENT AS OUR NEXT BOUT OF UPPER TROUGHING WORKS OVERHEAD BUT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES DOWN LOW. TEMPS MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGELY VFR CIGS OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH THICKENING CLOUDS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE SPREADING INTO PARTS
OF THE NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND MAINLY IMPACTING THE PELLSTON TERMINAL SITE WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR. STRONG SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND BRING A QUICK DETERIORATION IN WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD
NRN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THEN...ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL SWING
DOWN THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
LATE OVERNIGHT TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...CHANGING PRECIP OVER
TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND FURTHER LOWERING CONDITIONS TO LOW
MVFR OR IFR. WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY RAMP
UP RIGHT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES AND DEEP MIXING ENSUES OVER THE WATERS. FULLY
ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 301020
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
620 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE INCHING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL BUILD
ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY TODAY...BUT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OVERVIEW: LARGER SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM THIS
MORNING WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONE PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE (APPARENT
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA) IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY (AND OUR NEXT BIG SHOT OF COLD
AIR) DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...ALREADY SEEING SOME MODEST FORCING ALONG THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT CLOSER TO HOME...BROAD SFC
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME DRYING AND BREAK IN
THE PRECIP FOR NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. STRONG SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DROP
INTO THE FAR NRN LAKES REGION BY EVENING BEFORE CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SPIN
UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THAT HELPS DRAG THAT COLDER
AIR INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US WIND AND COLDER TEMPS AND THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS WINTER SEASON...JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

AS FOR TODAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/SRN CANADA WHERE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE
AND THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALREADY GETTING SQUEEZED. THIS REGION OF
MODEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IMPACTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL (SPOTTY
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS
MORNING).

TONIGHT...REALLY GETS INTERESTING. POTENT SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLD AIR DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SPINNING UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
ATTENDING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULLSEYE OF DEEP LAYER QG-UPWARD
ASCENT DROPS DOWN INTO THE STATE WITH THE WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. BUT AFTER
FROPA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN BY MORNING. BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR SLAMMING DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION WILL TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING (PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). ACCUMULATIONS...SEEM MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANGE MAY
SIMPLY COME TO LATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH AND/OR
IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THUNDER CHANCES...OF COURSE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND FORECAST
SOUNDING TEMP PROFILES FOLD OVER RATHER QUICKLY AS POCKET OF COLD
AIR COMES IN ALOFT...RESULTING IN SOME STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IT MAY BE A STRETCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDER OVERNIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY) AND HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

..."SCARY" COLD HALLOWEEN BUT THEN SOME MODERATION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF SNOW AND WIND HALLOWEEN
MORNING...AND A VERY COLD TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME. GALES EXPECTED ON
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN. NOT MUCH EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: QUITE THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY...
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT BRIEFLY...WITH STRONG JET ENERGY CURRENTLY HELPING
DIG TROUGHING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THAT IN TURN IS LEADING TO
RAPID HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIC NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THUS ALLOWING FOR ALREADY QUITE STRONG VORT
ENERGY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NUNAVUT TO DIG NEARLY DUE SOUTHWARD THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS EXACT SETUP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING FOR TREMENDOUS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WITH THIS TROUGH ENDING UP WELL TO
OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. THAT OVERALL
SETUP WILL FORCE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR
THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SWITCH TO STRONGER
NORTH PACIFIC JET ENERGY FORCING THE WESTERN RIDGE TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES FOR A TIME INTO VERY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT TOO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED (TIS THE TIME OF YEAR) AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS
BY MONDAY EVENTUALLY LIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME TOWARD MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...WITH A VERY WAVY PATTERN EXPECTED THEREAFTER INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING A CLASSIC UP AND DOWN FALL WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE GREAT LAKES.

LET`S BREAK IT DOWN:

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: ALL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HERE. APPROACH
OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHARPENING TROUGH WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 15Z FRIDAY AT THE LATEST...WITH QUITE
THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR RUSHING IN ALOFT IN ITS WAKE (H8 TEMPS DIVING
TOWARD -10C OR COLDER THROUGH THE DAY). SUCH SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF
SAID TROUGHING ALOFT WILL INCITE A QUICK DEFORMATION FORCING
RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUING TO
STRONGLY SUGGEST AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION BISECTING THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...EASING SOUTH
WITH TIME AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTH
AFTER 18Z. THE REAL KICKER WITH THIS SETUP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THICKNESSES RAPIDLY COLLAPSE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
AND STRONG LIFT COMPENSATES FOR AN INITIALLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER.
EVEN SEE SOME HINTS OF THE STRONGEST LIFT BISECTING THE DEEPENING
DGZ...IMPLYING THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE
PRECIP RATES/FLAKE SIZE AS WE ACTIVATE DENDRITES. ADD INTO THAT A
LIKELY LAKE COMPONENT GIVEN SUCH STRONG COLD ADVECTION/FORCING AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR WHAT COULD BE A
QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES FALLING BENEATH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CORE...
PARTICULARLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE
BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP ENHANCEMENT COMES TOGETHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING VERY QUICKLY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE THE WIND COMPONENT WITH SAID COLD FRONT AS
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEP MIXING TO TAP INTO AN IMPRESSIVE CORE OF 40-50 KNOTS IN THE
925-850MB LAYER. FORECAST RAOBS FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE HINTED AT
SURFACE GUSTS PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE ADVERTISED. THROW IN THAT WIND COMPONENT
WITH SNOW AND THERE COULD WELL BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OVERCOMING INITIALLY WARMER ROAD TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THIS HARD IN THE HWO/WEB GRAPHICS AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST
SNOW OF THE SEASON AND THESE USUALLY CAUSE QUITE A FEW ISSUES.

SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORCING WANES AND MOISTURE DEPTH SHRINKS CONSIDERABLY. AT THE SAME
TIME...CONTINUED COOLER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL ONLY GROW THE LAKE
INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T VALUES PUSHING 20C. LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HURT THE CAUSE BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS HUGGING BOTH THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON COASTS...
PERHAPS PUSHING A BIT MORE INTO NORTHEAST LOWER AS THE FLOW THERE IS
BACKED A BIT MORE NORTHEASTERLY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOULD SHRINK
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AIDS IN SHOVING BANDING OFFSHORE...BUT THAT
SAME REGIME SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST HELP BUILD RENEWED CLOUD COVER
BACK THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE
A COUPLE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPEST UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST AS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY WORKS OVERHEAD.
RESIDUAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH A LOWERING
INVERSION ARGUES FOR PESKY STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG DRYING AND
WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR QUICK CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIR FAVORING WHAT COULD BE SOME
QUITE CHILLY TEMPS. WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS DIP INTO THE TEENS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MANY SPOTS
WILL BE STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CRANKS
UP ALOFT...BUT WITH NO PRECIP THREAT GIVEN A VERY DRY SUB-750MB
LAYER. STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MAY DELIVER A COUPLE
SPRINKLES BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DOUBTFUL AS THE BEST ASCENT LIES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST LAKES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RESULTANT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THOUGH TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS A BIT IN QUESTION. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY
AT THE MOMENT AS OUR NEXT BOUT OF UPPER TROUGHING WORKS OVERHEAD BUT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES DOWN LOW. TEMPS MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGELY VFR CIGS OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH THICKENING CLOUDS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE SPREADING INTO PARTS
OF THE NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND MAINLY IMPACTING THE PELLSTON TERMINAL SITE WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR. STRONG SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND BRING A QUICK DETERIORATION IN WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD
NRN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THEN...ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL SWING
DOWN THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
LATE OVERNIGHT TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...CHANGING PRECIP OVER
TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND FURTHER LOWERING CONDITIONS TO LOW
MVFR OR IFR. WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY RAMP
UP RIGHT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES AND DEEP MIXING ENSUES OVER THE WATERS. FULLY
ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KMQT 301001
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
601 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOCUSES ON POTENTIAL MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
FOR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WEST OF HUDSON BAY DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

LATEST 09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING SE
THROUGH ERN SD WHILE THE SHORTWAVE OF BIGGER CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS
NOW LOCATED WEST OF HUDSON BAY. MAIN FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE OVER ERN
SD IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH ONLY WEAK
FORCING EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA FROM WEAK MID-LVL TROF OVERHEAD. AS A
RESULT EXPECT ONLY ISOLD SHRA...POSSIBLY A SNOW FLURRY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. FORCING WITH MODERATE TO STRONG Q-VECT
CONV WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY LATE IN DAY AHEAD OF
HUDSON BAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. COMBINATION OF FORCING AND ARRIVAL OF COLDER 8H TEMPS
OF -5 TO -6C IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW SHRA/LAKE
ENAHNCED SHRA TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER NW AND NCNTRL COUNTIES LATE IN
DAY AS WINDS SHIFT FM W TO NW.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED CAA IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LOWER 8H
TEMPS TO -11C TO -12C AS NOTED ON MODELS. MODEL WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND CRITICAL 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST A QUICK
TRANSITION FM RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING IN
WEST...LATE EVENING CENTRAL AND EARLY OVERNIGHT EAST. MESOSCALE
MODEL AVERAGED QPF FROM .2-.4 IN WEST TO .3-.6 IN NCNTRL AND A
GENERAL 10-12/1 SNOW/WATER RATIO SHOULD YIELD 2-4 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN COUNTIES AND COULD YIELD 3 TO POSSIBLY 8
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL COUNTIES. MODERATE SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKER WEST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND SHORTWAVE AND INVERSION HGTS BEGIN TO LOWER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS IN WEST TO MARGINAL ADVISORY AMTS. FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT WITH ADVISORY AMOUNTS OVER BARAGA-MQT WHERE CYCLONIC
CONVERGENT LOW-LVL FLOW WILL LINGER LONGER AND FAVORABLE NRLY FETCH
SHOULD YIELD INLAND TOTAL SNOW AMTS SOLIDLY IN ADVISORY CATEGORY 4-7
BEFORE SNOW TAPER OFF FRI MORNING. WRN ALGER SHOULD ALSO SHOULD ALSO
SEE ADVISORY AMTS OF 4-5 INCHES ALTHOUGH SNOW WON`T LIKELY START
ACCUMULATING THERE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. NRN DELTA COULD ALSO PUSH
ADVISORY AMTS DURING THE EVENT BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HAVE ALL WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MIDDAY.

NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS SO HAVE
ALSO ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH JUST INLAND FM THE LAKE COULD ALSO CAUSE
SOME BLOWING OF SNOW AS WELL AND THIS IS MENTIONED IN THE WSW
STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NAM SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI WITH A
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. ON FRI WHILE THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE
THEN REMAINS IN THE PLAINS THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THE DEEP TROUGH
MOVING TO THE ERN SEABOARD.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. NAM AND GFS SHOW
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -10C TO -12C 12Z FRI WARMING TO -2C TO
-6C BY 12Z SAT AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES FROM 6C TO
8C...THIS IS ENOUGH ON FRI AND FRI EVENING TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW ON FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO HANG ON INTO FRI NIGHT WITH SLOWLY
DIMINISHING POPS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SAT AND SAT NIGHT LOOK DRY FOR
NOW WITH FURTHER MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING ENOUGH TO GET RID OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 12Z SUN. THE RIDGE
MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING. MORE UPPER TROUGHING
COMES IN FOR WED. IT WILL START OFF DRY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND
THEN WET THROUGH WED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN MON NIGHT AND
TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR. HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN
NORTHERLY OFF THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO DEVELOP LATE THU AFTN
AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT. THE AIR WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
PCPN TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. WHEN THIS OCCURS /MOST LIKELY AFTER 03Z
FRI/...EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP TO IFR FOR AT LEAST SAW AND POSSIBLY
IWD AND CMX. LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING AT
LEAST AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...EXPECT GALES UP TO 45KTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALES WILL
COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20KTS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT (WINDS UP TO
25KTS) AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     TO NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1
     PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>006-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ004>006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 300949
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
549 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOCUSES ON POTENTIAL MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
FOR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WEST OF HUDSON BAY DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

LATEST 09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING SE
THROUGH ERN SD WHILE THE SHORTWAVE OF BIGGER CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS
NOW LOCATED WEST OF HUDSON BAY. MAIN FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE OVER ERN
SD IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH ONLY WEAK
FORCING EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA FROM WEAK MID-LVL TROF OVERHEAD. AS A
RESULT EXPECT ONLY ISOLD SHRA...POSSIBLY A SNOW FLURRY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. FORCING WITH MODERATE TO STRONG Q-VECT
CONV WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY LATE IN DAY AHEAD OF
HUDSON BAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. COMBINATION OF FORCING AND ARRIVAL OF COLDER 8H TEMPS
OF -5 TO -6C IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW SHRA/LAKE
ENAHNCED SHRA TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER NW AND NCNTRL COUNTIES LATE IN
DAY AS WINDS SHIFT FM W TO NW.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED CAA IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LOWER 8H
TEMPS TO -11C TO -12C AS NOTED ON MODELS. MODEL WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND CRITICAL 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST A QUICK
TRANSITION FM RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING IN
WEST...LATE EVENING CENTRAL AND EARLY OVERNIGHT EAST. MESOSCALE
MODEL AVERAGED QPF FROM .2-.4 IN WEST TO .3-.6 IN NCNTRL AND A
GENERAL 10-12/1 SNOW/WATER RATIO SHOULD YIELD 2-4 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN COUNTIES AND COULD YIELD 3 TO POSSIBLY 8
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL COUNTIES. MODERATE SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKER WEST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND SHORTWAVE AND INVERSION HGTS BEGIN TO LOWER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS IN WEST TO MARGINAL ADVISORY AMTS. FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT WITH ADVISORY AMOUNTS OVER BARAGA-MQT WHERE CYCLONIC
CONVERGENT LOW-LVL FLOW WILL LINGER LONGER AND FAVORABLE NRLY FETCH
SHOULD YIELD INLAND TOTAL SNOW AMTS SOLIDLY IN ADVISORY CATEGORY 4-7
BEFORE SNOW TAPER OFF FRI MORNING. WRN ALGER SHOULD ALSO SHOULD ALSO
SEE ADVISORY AMTS OF 4-5 INCHES ALTHOUGH SNOW WON`T LIKELY START
ACCUMULATING THERE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. NRN DELTA COULD ALSO PUSH
ADVISORY AMTS DURING THE EVENT BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT HAVE ALL WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MIDDAY.

NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE COULD ALSO CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF SNOW AND REDUCED
VSBY ALTHOUGH WET NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NAM SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI WITH A
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. ON FRI WHILE THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE
THEN REMAINS IN THE PLAINS THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THE DEEP TROUGH
MOVING TO THE ERN SEABOARD.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. NAM AND GFS SHOW
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -10C TO -12C 12Z FRI WARMING TO -2C TO
-6C BY 12Z SAT AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES FROM 6C TO
8C...THIS IS ENOUGH ON FRI AND FRI EVENING TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW ON FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO HANG ON INTO FRI NIGHT WITH SLOWLY
DIMINISHING POPS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SAT AND SAT NIGHT LOOK DRY FOR
NOW WITH FURTHER MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING ENOUGH TO GET RID OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 12Z SUN. THE RIDGE
MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING. MORE UPPER TROUGHING
COMES IN FOR WED. IT WILL START OFF DRY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND
THEN WET THROUGH WED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN MON NIGHT AND
TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR. HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN
NORTHERLY OFF THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO DEVELOP LATE THU AFTN
AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT. THE AIR WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
PCPN TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. WHEN THIS OCCURS /MOST LIKELY AFTER 03Z
FRI/...EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP TO IFR FOR AT LEAST SAW AND POSSIBLY
IWD AND CMX. LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING AT
LEAST AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...EXPECT GALES UP TO 45KTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALES WILL
COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20KTS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT (WINDS UP TO
25KTS) AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     TO NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1
     PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>006-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ004>006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KAPX 300833
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
433 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE INCHING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL BUILD
ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY TODAY...BUT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OVERVIEW: LARGER SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM THIS
MORNING WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONE PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE (APPARENT
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA) IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY (AND OUR NEXT BIG SHOT OF COLD
AIR) DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...ALREADY SEEING SOME MODEST FORCING ALONG THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT CLOSER TO HOME...BROAD SFC
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME DRYING AND BREAK IN
THE PRECIP FOR NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. STRONG SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DROP
INTO THE FAR NRN LAKES REGION BY EVENING BEFORE CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SPIN
UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THAT HELPS DRAG THAT COLDER
AIR INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US WIND AND COLDER TEMPS AND THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS WINTER SEASON...JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

AS FOR TODAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/SRN CANADA WHERE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE
AND THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALREADY GETTING SQUEEZED. THIS REGION OF
MODEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IMPACTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL (SPOTTY
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS
MORNING).

TONIGHT...REALLY GETS INTERESTING. POTENT SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLD AIR DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SPINNING UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
ATTENDING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULLSEYE OF DEEP LAYER QG-UPWARD
ASCENT DROPS DOWN INTO THE STATE WITH THE WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. BUT AFTER
FROPA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN BY MORNING. BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR SLAMMING DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION WILL TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING (PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). ACCUMULATIONS...SEEM MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANGE MAY
SIMPLY COME TO LATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH AND/OR
IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THUNDER CHANCES...OF COURSE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND FORECAST
SOUNDING TEMP PROFILES FOLD OVER RATHER QUICKLY AS POCKET OF COLD
AIR COMES IN ALOFT...RESULTING IN SOME STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IT MAY BE A STRETCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDER OVERNIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY) AND HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

..."SCARY" COLD HALLOWEEN BUT THEN SOME MODERATION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF SNOW AND WIND HALLOWEEN
MORNING...AND A VERY COLD TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME. GALES EXPECTED ON
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN. NOT MUCH EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: QUITE THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY...
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT BRIEFLY...WITH STRONG JET ENERGY CURRENTLY HELPING
DIG TROUGHING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THAT IN TURN IS LEADING TO
RAPID HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIC NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THUS ALLOWING FOR ALREADY QUITE STRONG VORT
ENERGY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NUNAVUT TO DIG NEARLY DUE SOUTHWARD THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS EXACT SETUP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING FOR TREMENDOUS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WITH THIS TROUGH ENDING UP WELL TO
OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. THAT OVERALL
SETUP WILL FORCE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR
THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SWITCH TO STRONGER
NORTH PACIFIC JET ENERGY FORCING THE WESTERN RIDGE TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES FOR A TIME INTO VERY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT TOO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED (TIS THE TIME OF YEAR) AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS
BY MONDAY EVENTUALLY LIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME TOWARD MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...WITH A VERY WAVY PATTERN EXPECTED THEREAFTER INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING A CLASSIC UP AND DOWN FALL WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE GREAT LAKES.

LET`S BREAK IT DOWN:

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: ALL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HERE. APPROACH
OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHARPENING TROUGH WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 15Z FRIDAY AT THE LATEST...WITH QUITE
THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR RUSHING IN ALOFT IN ITS WAKE (H8 TEMPS DIVING
TOWARD -10C OR COLDER THROUGH THE DAY). SUCH SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF
SAID TROUGHING ALOFT WILL INCITE A QUICK DEFORMATION FORCING
RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUING TO
STRONGLY SUGGEST AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION BISECTING THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...EASING SOUTH
WITH TIME AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTH
AFTER 18Z. THE REAL KICKER WITH THIS SETUP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THICKNESSES RAPIDLY COLLAPSE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
AND STRONG LIFT COMPENSATES FOR AN INITIALLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER.
EVEN SEE SOME HINTS OF THE STRONGEST LIFT BISECTING THE DEEPENING
DGZ...IMPLYING THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE
PRECIP RATES/FLAKE SIZE AS WE ACTIVATE DENDRITES. ADD INTO THAT A
LIKELY LAKE COMPONENT GIVEN SUCH STRONG COLD ADVECTION/FORCING AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR WHAT COULD BE A
QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES FALLING BENEATH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CORE...
PARTICULARLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE
BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP ENHANCEMENT COMES TOGETHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING VERY QUICKLY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE THE WIND COMPONENT WITH SAID COLD FRONT AS
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEP MIXING TO TAP INTO AN IMPRESSIVE CORE OF 40-50 KNOTS IN THE
925-850MB LAYER. FORECAST RAOBS FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE HINTED AT
SURFACE GUSTS PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE ADVERTISED. THROW IN THAT WIND COMPONENT
WITH SNOW AND THERE COULD WELL BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OVERCOMING INITIALLY WARMER ROAD TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THIS HARD IN THE HWO/WEB GRAPHICS AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST
SNOW OF THE SEASON AND THESE USUALLY CAUSE QUITE A FEW ISSUES.

SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORCING WANES AND MOISTURE DEPTH SHRINKS CONSIDERABLY. AT THE SAME
TIME...CONTINUED COOLER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL ONLY GROW THE LAKE
INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T VALUES PUSHING 20C. LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HURT THE CAUSE BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS HUGGING BOTH THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON COASTS...
PERHAPS PUSHING A BIT MORE INTO NORTHEAST LOWER AS THE FLOW THERE IS
BACKED A BIT MORE NORTHEASTERLY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOULD SHRINK
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AIDS IN SHOVING BANDING OFFSHORE...BUT THAT
SAME REGIME SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST HELP BUILD RENEWED CLOUD COVER
BACK THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE
A COUPLE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPEST UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST AS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY WORKS OVERHEAD.
RESIDUAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH A LOWERING
INVERSION ARGUES FOR PESKY STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG DRYING AND
WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR QUICK CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIR FAVORING WHAT COULD BE SOME
QUITE CHILLY TEMPS. WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS DIP INTO THE TEENS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MANY SPOTS
WILL BE STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CRANKS
UP ALOFT...BUT WITH NO PRECIP THREAT GIVEN A VERY DRY SUB-750MB
LAYER. STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MAY DELIVER A COUPLE
SPRINKLES BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DOUBTFUL AS THE BEST ASCENT LIES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST LAKES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RESULTANT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THOUGH TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS A BIT IN QUESTION. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY
AT THE MOMENT AS OUR NEXT BOUT OF UPPER TROUGHING WORKS OVERHEAD BUT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES DOWN LOW. TEMPS MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA OVERNIGHT AND
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THAT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SLIDE INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO SOLID MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR THURSDAY EVENING AS RAIN SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES AND DEEP MIXING ENSUES OVER THE WATERS. FULLY
ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KMQT 300829
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A 991MB SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMES BAY IN NORTHERN
QUEBEC SWEPT A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
LAST NIGHT. THIS HAS LED TO A POCKET OF COLD AIR AT 850MB (AROUND
-5C) TO HELP PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS PAST
MORNING. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...DRYING ALOFT
IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE HAS LED TO
THE CLOUDS TOPS QUICKLY LOWERING THIS MORNING FROM 8KFT TO 5KFT BY
14Z. THIS HAS STAYED STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS HELPING TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
UPPER MICHIGAN UNDER THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THAT AREA THIS
EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT SLIGHTLY WARMING AND REDUCING
THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. OVER THE WEST...THE BACKING WINDS WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) AND THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE HAS DIMINISHED THE
SHOWERS (WEBCAMS INDICATING PAVEMENT DRYING)...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP MUCH OF THAT AREA
CLOUDY TONIGHT. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OR
EVEN CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD AFTER DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. DID
TRY TO SHOW A QUICK PERIOD OF PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS SLIDE BACK IN.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE
FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS
AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STRETCH A WEAK TROUGH NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA...THE FORCING IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY BELOW 0.20 INCH. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
BACKING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH/LOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT HIGHER AMOUNTS AND A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWERING OF THE CLOUD TOPS CREATES SOME CONCERN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME POTENTIAL OF SNOW DUE TO THE
STRONGER SHOWERS LIKELY RISING A LITTLE HIGHER AND INTO COLDER
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECT PLENTY OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
CLOUD AND THE PRECIP TYPE DEPENDS ON THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
WETBULB0 VALUES HAVE BEEN HANDLING THESE EVENTS WELL OVER THE LAST
MONTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THAT FOR THE RAIN/SNOW FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATING WETBULB0 VALUES BETWEEN
900-2100FT SO WILL GO WITH RAIN/SNOW (OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN) TO
MAINLY RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN AS
THE COLDER AIR STARTS SURGING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. A
SECONDARY AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURES WILL
DRIVE THE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NAM SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI WITH A
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. ON FRI WHILE THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE
THEN REMAINS IN THE PLAINS THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THE DEEP TROUGH
MOVING TO THE ERN SEABOARD.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. NAM AND GFS SHOW
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -10C TO -12C 12Z FRI WARMING TO -2C TO
-6C BY 12Z SAT AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES FROM 6C TO
8C...THIS IS ENOUGH ON FRI AND FRI EVENING TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW ON FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO HANG ON INTO FRI NIGHT WITH SLOWLY
DIMINISHING POPS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SAT AND SAT NIGHT LOOK DRY FOR
NOW WITH FURTHER MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING ENOUGH TO GET RID OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 12Z SUN. THE RIDGE
MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING. MORE UPPER TROUGHING
COMES IN FOR WED. IT WILL START OFF DRY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND
THEN WET THROUGH WED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN MON NIGHT AND
TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR. HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN
NORTHERLY OFF THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO DEVELOP LATE THU AFTN
AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT. THE AIR WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
PCPN TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. WHEN THIS OCCURS /MOST LIKELY AFTER 03Z
FRI/...EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP TO IFR FOR AT LEAST SAW AND POSSIBLY
IWD AND CMX. LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING AT
LEAST AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...EXPECT GALES UP TO 45KTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALES WILL
COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20KTS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT (WINDS UP TO
25KTS) AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     TO NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ004>006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 300741
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A 991MB SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMES BAY IN NORTHERN
QUEBEC SWEPT A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
LAST NIGHT. THIS HAS LED TO A POCKET OF COLD AIR AT 850MB (AROUND
-5C) TO HELP PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS PAST
MORNING. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...DRYING ALOFT
IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE HAS LED TO
THE CLOUDS TOPS QUICKLY LOWERING THIS MORNING FROM 8KFT TO 5KFT BY
14Z. THIS HAS STAYED STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS HELPING TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
UPPER MICHIGAN UNDER THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THAT AREA THIS
EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT SLIGHTLY WARMING AND REDUCING
THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. OVER THE WEST...THE BACKING WINDS WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) AND THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE HAS DIMINISHED THE
SHOWERS (WEBCAMS INDICATING PAVEMENT DRYING)...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP MUCH OF THAT AREA
CLOUDY TONIGHT. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OR
EVEN CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD AFTER DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. DID
TRY TO SHOW A QUICK PERIOD OF PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS SLIDE BACK IN.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE
FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS
AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STRETCH A WEAK TROUGH NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA...THE FORCING IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY BELOW 0.20 INCH. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
BACKING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH/LOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT HIGHER AMOUNTS AND A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWERING OF THE CLOUD TOPS CREATES SOME CONCERN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME POTENTIAL OF SNOW DUE TO THE
STRONGER SHOWERS LIKELY RISING A LITTLE HIGHER AND INTO COLDER
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECT PLENTY OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
CLOUD AND THE PRECIP TYPE DEPENDS ON THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
WETBULB0 VALUES HAVE BEEN HANDLING THESE EVENTS WELL OVER THE LAST
MONTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THAT FOR THE RAIN/SNOW FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATING WETBULB0 VALUES BETWEEN
900-2100FT SO WILL GO WITH RAIN/SNOW (OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN) TO
MAINLY RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN AS
THE COLDER AIR STARTS SURGING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. A
SECONDARY AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURES WILL
DRIVE THE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NAM SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI WITH A
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. ON FRI WHILE THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE
THEN REMAINS IN THE PLAINS THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THE DEEP TROUGH
MOVING TO THE ERN SEABOARD.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. NAM AND GFS SHOW
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -10C TO -12C 12Z FRI WARMING TO -2C TO
-6C BY 12Z SAT AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES FROM 6C TO
8C...THIS IS ENOUGH ON FRI AND FRI EVENING TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW ON FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO HANG ON INTO FRI NIGHT WITH SLOWLY
DIMINISHING POPS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SAT AND SAT NIGHT LOOK DRY FOR
NOW WITH FURTHER MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING ENOUGH TO GET RID OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 12Z SUN. THE RIDGE
MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING. MORE UPPER TROUGHING
COMES IN FOR WED. IT WILL START OFF DRY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND
THEN WET THROUGH WED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN MON NIGHT AND
TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR. HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN
NORTHERLY OFF THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO DEVELOP LATE THU AFTN
AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT. THE AIR WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
PCPN TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. WHEN THIS OCCURS /MOST LIKELY AFTER 03Z
FRI/...EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP TO IFR FOR AT LEAST SAW AND POSSIBLY
IWD AND CMX. LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING AT
LEAST AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
STRETCH A RIDGE NORTH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WINDS TONIGHT BELOW 15KTS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A
STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...EXPECT GALES UP TO 40KTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THE EXISTING GALE WATCH. THE GALES WILL
COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20KTS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT (WINDS UP TO
25KTS) AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LMZ221-
     248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KDTX 300735
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING...KEEPING WINDS CALM AND CONDITIONS RELATIVELY DRY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DESPITE MORNING SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TOWARDS
THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL STILL BE FAR TO THE NORTHWEST...RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. WITH COLD AIR STILL
IN PLACE AND INCREASING CLOUDS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES...WITH SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION.

THE POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM THE SOO TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. THE REAL COLD AIR WITH THIS
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF A BIT...WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...THE
MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT A
BIT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND NOT RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM WITH LOWS AROUND 40
DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE LAG OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION/
PV ANOMALY OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...ADVANCING SOUTHEAST.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE 00Z MODELS (GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/EURO) STILL ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND CLOSING OFF OF THE 500 MB LOW.
NAM/GFS ARE CLOSING THE 500 MB OFF FASTER AND ARE FARTHER
EAST...OVER WESTERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE EURO REMAINS OPEN
A BIT LONGER AND IS MUCH FARTHER WEST...WITH THE CANADIAN BEING THE
FARTHER EAST...TRACKING IN BETWEEN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION...A VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB)
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SETTING UP...WITH THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE WARM WATERS (LOWER 50S) OF LAKE
HURON FURTHERING STRENGTHENING OR AT THE VERY LEAST MAINTAINING
FRONTAL ZONE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SKEWING THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD
THE NAM...WHICH HOPEFULLY CAN FACTOR IN THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCE OF
LAKE HURON A BIT BETTER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE PREDOMINATELY
RAIN/NON-ACCUMULATING WET SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS NAM
MAINTAINS SURFACE DEW PTS COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
21Z...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING THEN ATTEMPTING TO MAKE INROADS TOWARD
THE U.S. 23 CORRIDOR. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE EAST OF
U.S. 23 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850-700 MB MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE
SEEN ARCHING BACK FRIDAY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LAKE HURON
ENHANCEMENT TAKING PLACE BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS OF -5 TO -10 C. THE
STRONG INFLUENCE/FLOW OFF LAKE HURON LOOKS TO BE THE OVERRIDING
FACTOR IN THE EQUATION KEEPING SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE LAYER JUST WARM
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AS BOTH
GFS/NAM INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE -3 C EAST OF U.S
23...WITH SURFACE DEW PTS STILL HOVERING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 23...DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY WIN OUT...ESPECIALLY IF
ONE IS TO BELIEVE THE EURO...BUT IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES MAKE IT
THIS FAR WEST...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THERE
IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM (PREDOMINATELY CONTINUED
POSITIVE LOW LEVEL ASCENT)...AND PRECIPITATION DRAG ISSUES TO
CONTEND WITH. RISE/FALL COUPLET WORKING THROUGH IS ALSO NOTHING
SPECIAL 10-12 MB...AND THUS EXPECTING GUSTS TO TOP OUT IN THE 35 TO
40 MPH RANGE...THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE HURON
LAKESHORE WHERE HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND....SHUTTING OFF THE LAKE EFFECT AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ATTEMPT TO MODERATE. THE PROBLEM IS SURFACE
HIGH BUILD IN WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CRATER (20S)
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED...AS SUN
ANGLE/OVERALL INSOLATION DECLINES AS WE HEAD INTO NOVEMBER. 925 MB
FORECASTED (EURO)TEMPS TO CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE...SUPPORTIVE OF
MID 40S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVES TODAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS
ON TRACK TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER
MUCH OF LAKE HURON. THE STRONG PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE...AND WILL
LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW 4 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

//DISCUSSION...

LATE EVENING OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCU
OVER NORTHERN LOWER THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFFECTING MBS AND
FNT DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DTW BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL WIND BEGINS
BACKING TOWARD THE WEST. CLOUDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL THEN MAKE AN
EASTWARD MOVE...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH
THE MORNING. VFR CEILING WILL INCREASE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIGHT RAIN BECOMES POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT PREVAILING FROM
  AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ442-443-463-464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON HALLOWEEN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL CREATE
WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE DAY. ALSO MANY AREAS
WILL SEE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS 00Z MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE INTENSE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
THE COLD TEMPERATURES... ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER. HOWEVER THE SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TOO.

P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO ARRIVE WHILE THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD.
THIS COULD MAKE THINGS VERY INTERESTING AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z WHILE THERE IS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVERHEAD.

IF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE PRECIP RATES OCCUR ON FRIDAY... WHICH LOOKS
QUITE POSSIBLE...SOME QUICK WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION
NEAR/NORTH OF U.S. 10... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WARMTH OF THE GROUND THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON... BUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES COULD EASILY
OVERCOME THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO FAIR SKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND GIVE US A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN. INSTABILITY IS LOW SO THUNDER ISN/T EXPECTED. A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM. A STRONG FETCH OFF THE
GULF WILL RIDE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE`LL START TO DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES BY. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ISN/T
COMING OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA SO WE WON/T SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
DROP BEHIND IT.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY TO
THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z FRIDAY RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS COULD
OCCUR... WHICH IS STORM WARNING CRITERIA... HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A GALE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...MEADE










000
FXUS63 KGRR 300552
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
152 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THAT WILL
LIKELY CHANCE TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY ON HALLOWEEN TOO. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
ALL SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATER AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AREA POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MOST OF THAT BEING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.

THE PHASING OF A STRONGLY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM RESULTS IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING BETWEEN .25 AND .50
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE CWA. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SINCE THE MODELS
OVERALL DO NOT HANDLE ARCTIC ORIGIN WAVES ALL THAT WELL THE STRONG
GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER WAY TO GO.

AS FOR THE QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE... I LOOK AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE 0C ISOTHERM IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS MY PRIMARY TOOL. THIS
SHOWS THE HEIGHT FALLING TO NEAR 1000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING SO
WITH IT THAT CLOSE TO THE GROUND I HAVE TO BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW BY THEN. SINCE THAT IS TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT... ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. I
WOULD THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE THE
LIMIT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.

ONE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS EVENT IS THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN. THE GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 300 J/KG OVER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS BY 18Z FRIDAY. I ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST FOR AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS TO COVER THIS ISSUE.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE WIND... THERE IS 50 TO 60 KNOTS IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 AGL LAYER BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GIVEN THIS IS DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
I HAVE TO BELIEVE A LOT OF THIS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND SO I WOULD
THINK A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. TO EARLY FOR THAT YET
THROUGH. I DID INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS IS
LEAVING THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OPEN CELL CU TO OUR NORTH MOVING SOUTH AND
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH THIS EVENING SO ALL OF THE
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING TONIGHT
INLAND OF US-131. TOWARD MORNING WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SO THE
LAKE CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES
IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THAT A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES EXPECTED. FEEL THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.

A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL...IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z FRIDAY RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS AND WAVES ARE
DIMINISHING IN THE NEAR SHORE AND WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN TONIGHT
I WOULD EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. I EXPECT WINDS OF GALE FORCE TO
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SO I ADDED THOSE TO THE FORECAST TOO.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KMQT 300457
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1257 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A 991MB SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMES BAY IN NORTHERN
QUEBEC SWEPT A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
LAST NIGHT. THIS HAS LED TO A POCKET OF COLD AIR AT 850MB (AROUND
-5C) TO HELP PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS PAST
MORNING. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...DRYING ALOFT
IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE HAS LED TO
THE CLOUDS TOPS QUICKLY LOWERING THIS MORNING FROM 8KFT TO 5KFT BY
14Z. THIS HAS STAYED STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS HELPING TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
UPPER MICHIGAN UNDER THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THAT AREA THIS
EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT SLIGHTLY WARMING AND REDUCING
THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. OVER THE WEST...THE BACKING WINDS WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) AND THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE HAS DIMINISHED THE
SHOWERS (WEBCAMS INDICATING PAVEMENT DRYING)...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP MUCH OF THAT AREA
CLOUDY TONIGHT. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OR
EVEN CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD AFTER DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. DID
TRY TO SHOW A QUICK PERIOD OF PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS SLIDE BACK IN.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE
FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS
AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STRETCH A WEAK TROUGH NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA...THE FORCING IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY BELOW 0.20 INCH. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
BACKING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH/LOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT HIGHER AMOUNTS AND A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWERING OF THE CLOUD TOPS CREATES SOME CONCERN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME POTENTIAL OF SNOW DUE TO THE
STRONGER SHOWERS LIKELY RISING A LITTLE HIGHER AND INTO COLDER
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECT PLENTY OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
CLOUD AND THE PRECIP TYPE DEPENDS ON THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
WETBULB0 VALUES HAVE BEEN HANDLING THESE EVENTS WELL OVER THE LAST
MONTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THAT FOR THE RAIN/SNOW FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATING WETBULB0 VALUES BETWEEN
900-2100FT SO WILL GO WITH RAIN/SNOW (OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN) TO
MAINLY RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN AS
THE COLDER AIR STARTS SURGING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. A
SECONDARY AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURES WILL
DRIVE THE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THU NIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING TO THE SE FROM NW ONTARIO WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV ACROSS UPPER MI BRINGING PCPN TO UPPER
MICHIGAN. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING AS COLD AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE
AREA WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS AROUND LOW PRES MOVING INTO LAKE HURON.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -7C
TO -9C RANGE BY 06Z (LAKE SFC AROUND 7C) WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WHERE UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW IS STRONGEST...FROM IRONWOOD TO ROCKLAND AND
OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE GROUND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WARM...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS ON BOTH
GRASSY SURFACES AND ROADWAYS AS INLAND SFC TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 30.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE MAY REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE
SEASON AND MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE WET/HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD LIMIT
BLOWING/DRIFTING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE WHERE SFC
TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AS QVECTOR DIV AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BTWN
09Z-15Z. INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR -12C FOR LIGHT EFFECT SNOW...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE NRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. BY AFTERNOON...SFC RIDGING AND ACYC FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROMINENT WHICH WILL FURTHER REDUCE LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT PCPN. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES AND WINDS
DIMINISH TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF...INTO THE UPPER TEENS INLAND
WEST AND LOWER TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REST OF UPPER MI...EXCEPT
THE SHORELINES.

SAT AND SUN...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING A MID LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH MODERATING
TEMPS SUN AS SRLY FLOW AND WAA TAKES OVER. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S SAT WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 40S SUN.

MON-WED...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PCPN FORECAST IS HIGH GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING BTWN NRN AND SRN STREAMS AND ASSOCIATED TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES. A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR. HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN
NORTHERLY OFF THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO DEVELOP LATE THU AFTN
AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT. THE AIR WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
PCPN TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. WHEN THIS OCCURS /MOST LIKELY AFTER 03Z
FRI/...EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP TO IFR FOR AT LEAST SAW AND POSSIBLY
IWD AND CMX. LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING AT
LEAST AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
STRETCH A RIDGE NORTH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WINDS TONIGHT BELOW 15KTS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A
STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...EXPECT GALES UP TO 40KTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THE EXISTING GALE WATCH. THE GALES WILL
COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20KTS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT (WINDS UP TO
25KTS) AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LMZ221-
     248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 300457
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1257 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A 991MB SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMES BAY IN NORTHERN
QUEBEC SWEPT A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
LAST NIGHT. THIS HAS LED TO A POCKET OF COLD AIR AT 850MB (AROUND
-5C) TO HELP PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS PAST
MORNING. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...DRYING ALOFT
IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE HAS LED TO
THE CLOUDS TOPS QUICKLY LOWERING THIS MORNING FROM 8KFT TO 5KFT BY
14Z. THIS HAS STAYED STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS HELPING TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
UPPER MICHIGAN UNDER THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THAT AREA THIS
EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT SLIGHTLY WARMING AND REDUCING
THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. OVER THE WEST...THE BACKING WINDS WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) AND THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE HAS DIMINISHED THE
SHOWERS (WEBCAMS INDICATING PAVEMENT DRYING)...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP MUCH OF THAT AREA
CLOUDY TONIGHT. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OR
EVEN CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD AFTER DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. DID
TRY TO SHOW A QUICK PERIOD OF PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS SLIDE BACK IN.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE
FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS
AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STRETCH A WEAK TROUGH NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA...THE FORCING IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY BELOW 0.20 INCH. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
BACKING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH/LOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT HIGHER AMOUNTS AND A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWERING OF THE CLOUD TOPS CREATES SOME CONCERN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME POTENTIAL OF SNOW DUE TO THE
STRONGER SHOWERS LIKELY RISING A LITTLE HIGHER AND INTO COLDER
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECT PLENTY OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
CLOUD AND THE PRECIP TYPE DEPENDS ON THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
WETBULB0 VALUES HAVE BEEN HANDLING THESE EVENTS WELL OVER THE LAST
MONTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THAT FOR THE RAIN/SNOW FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATING WETBULB0 VALUES BETWEEN
900-2100FT SO WILL GO WITH RAIN/SNOW (OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN) TO
MAINLY RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN AS
THE COLDER AIR STARTS SURGING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. A
SECONDARY AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURES WILL
DRIVE THE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THU NIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING TO THE SE FROM NW ONTARIO WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV ACROSS UPPER MI BRINGING PCPN TO UPPER
MICHIGAN. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING AS COLD AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE
AREA WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS AROUND LOW PRES MOVING INTO LAKE HURON.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -7C
TO -9C RANGE BY 06Z (LAKE SFC AROUND 7C) WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WHERE UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW IS STRONGEST...FROM IRONWOOD TO ROCKLAND AND
OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE GROUND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WARM...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS ON BOTH
GRASSY SURFACES AND ROADWAYS AS INLAND SFC TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 30.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE MAY REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE
SEASON AND MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE WET/HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD LIMIT
BLOWING/DRIFTING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE WHERE SFC
TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AS QVECTOR DIV AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BTWN
09Z-15Z. INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR -12C FOR LIGHT EFFECT SNOW...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE NRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. BY AFTERNOON...SFC RIDGING AND ACYC FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROMINENT WHICH WILL FURTHER REDUCE LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT PCPN. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES AND WINDS
DIMINISH TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF...INTO THE UPPER TEENS INLAND
WEST AND LOWER TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REST OF UPPER MI...EXCEPT
THE SHORELINES.

SAT AND SUN...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING A MID LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH MODERATING
TEMPS SUN AS SRLY FLOW AND WAA TAKES OVER. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S SAT WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 40S SUN.

MON-WED...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PCPN FORECAST IS HIGH GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING BTWN NRN AND SRN STREAMS AND ASSOCIATED TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES. A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR. HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN
NORTHERLY OFF THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO DEVELOP LATE THU AFTN
AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT. THE AIR WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
PCPN TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. WHEN THIS OCCURS /MOST LIKELY AFTER 03Z
FRI/...EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP TO IFR FOR AT LEAST SAW AND POSSIBLY
IWD AND CMX. LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING AT
LEAST AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
STRETCH A RIDGE NORTH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WINDS TONIGHT BELOW 15KTS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A
STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...EXPECT GALES UP TO 40KTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THE EXISTING GALE WATCH. THE GALES WILL
COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20KTS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT (WINDS UP TO
25KTS) AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LMZ221-
     248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KDTX 300405
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1205 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LATE EVENING OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCU
OVER NORTHERN LOWER THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFFECTING MBS AND
FNT DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DTW BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL WIND BEGINS
BACKING TOWARD THE WEST. CLOUDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL THEN MAKE AN
EASTWARD MOVE...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH
THE MORNING. VFR CEILING WILL INCREASE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIGHT RAIN BECOMES POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT PREVAILING FROM
  AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
WILL BOTH COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. BRIEF RIDGING
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MOSTLY CALM AND CLOUD COVER TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE DRY
AIR WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING...ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND TO KEEP SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
GIVING WAY TO A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE METRO DETROIT
AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST. ALTHOUGH QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE
RIDGE TOMORROW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE
ARRIVES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH CANADA...AND
AS THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIVES INTO MO/IL.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A MOISTLY CLOUDY DAY FROM THE AFTERNOON GOING
FORWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH
AS IT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS...EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND
OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL THIS SEASON. SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY FROM WAY UP OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND NUNAVUT WILL
CONSOLIDATE AS THEY DIVE THROUGH CANADA AND AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH GFS/NAM
MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE TIMING OF THE EURO/GEM. THIS LOOKS
TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 20Z. FGEN FORCING AND STRONG PVA WILL WORK WITH A MODEST THETA-E
PLUME SURGING UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE VERY COLD AIR COMING IN WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
AND HOW SOON PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY (MAX TEMPS
WILL BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY FOR ALL BUT THE DETROIT AREA)
.LOOKING TO START BY MID-MORNING NEAR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
FINALLY SWITCH OVER NEAR THE CITY OF DETROIT DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW BY 800 PM...WITH POTENTIALLY AN
EXCEPTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON WHERE WINDS WILL
BE OFF THE WARMER WATER.

MOISTURE WILL START TO PULL AWAY AS THE LOW EXITS EAST
HOWEVER...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUALLY REASSESS THIS WITH EACH RUN OF NEW MODEL DATA HOWEVER.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY STICK ON THE
GROUND WITH WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES AND PAVEMENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (A FEW TENTHS LOOK BEST RIGHT NOW) WILL BE ON
ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR STEEPENS LAPSE RATES AND DEEPENS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRONGER EURO MODEL...WHICH HAS A CORE OF 40-
50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 925 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY BY
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE GUSTY WINDS ARE FACTORED IN.
EVENING WIND CHILLS LOOK TO RUN BETWEEN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT OFF LAKE HURON AFTER THE LOW PULLS AWAY...WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATER AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS VERY COLD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. COLD AIR
ADVECTION DOES SLOW DOWN...BUT THE 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE HURON
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 K/KM RANGE WHICH WILL SPARK SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. THE DELTA T WILL SHRINK AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING FROM THE WEST WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES AFTER NOON. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN
SUN-MON AND PROVIDE A WARMING TREND. THIS TREND SHOULD SURVIVE THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
ONLY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 560 DAM.

MARINE...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER
MUCH OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR LAKE ST
CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. THE STRONG PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 14 FEET OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER LARGE WAVES WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ442-443-463-464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 300345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SINCE LAST NIGHT PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING LEADING
TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP BY OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH 1000-500 MB RH
DROPPING FROM NEARLY 80 PERCENT AT THE HOUR OF THIS WRITING TO ABOUT
55 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVER LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT (LAKE/850 MB
DELTA T`S OF ABOUT +13 OR +14). THE DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM DUE
IN ON THURSDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. THIS COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING ONLY LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCALS LATER TONIGHT. A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS
THE MELTING LAYER SHRINKS TO ABOUT 1200 FEET AGL OR SO. AM A BIT
CONCERNED ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
CLOUDS LOOKING RATHER CELLULAR. SO IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR AND COMBINE WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...LOWS COULD EASILY FALL
OFF INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S INLAND. THEREFORE...HAVE CUT
FORECAST LOWS/MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...RAW LOOKING HALLOWEEN ON TAP WITH WIND AND RAIN/SNOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THAT SAME TIME FRAME...40+MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG
EXPOSED SHORELINE AREAS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANS...PART OF A FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN.  LARGER SCALE TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TODAY.  SOME FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THROUGH WHICH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER PACIFIC TROPICAL
CYCLONE "ANA" IS MOVING THROUGH (OVER MONTANA/WYOMING)...WITH
ANOTHER BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES OF
CENTRAL CANADA.  ANOTHER STRONG LARGER SCALE TROUGH WAS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 991MB SURFACE LOW WRAPPED
UP EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS.  HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSED THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL CANADA.

THE EARLIER MENTIONED PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO CARVE OUT A STRONG TROUGH HEADING INTO HALLOWEEN FRIDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA.  THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (AND COLD TEMPERATURES) TO MICHIGAN
BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING PROVIDES A REPRIEVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WILL BE WATCHING TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.  RESULT WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BETWEEN DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST.
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER LAKES/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): IMPACTS OF DEVELOPING
HALLOWEEN SYSTEM THE OBVIOUS MAJOR CONCERN...PRECIPITATION
(EVOLUTION AND TYPE)/WINDS AND TRICK-OR-TREATING CONDITIONS
(PROBABLY NOT THE BEST).  INITIALLY WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH MORE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WILL BE A RELATIVE "CALM BEFORE THE
STORM" ON THURSDAY WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES.  SHORT WAVE REMNANTS OF "ANA" EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE COMING OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  BUT ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND
TROUGHING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM RESIDUAL LAKE PROCESSES (WHICH
MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY LAKE INDUCED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER/NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY TO START THE DAY).
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGEST
HEIGHT FALLS/QG SUPPORT OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL START TO PULL IN COLDER AIR.  SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CONCERN OVER EASTERN UPPER...WHERE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS..AND CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH A MENTIONING AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION MAY START TO TRANSITION OVER TOWARD SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.  SPEAKING OF RAMPING UP WINDS...SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTH/WEST FACING SHORELINE AREAS.  WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED INITIALLY...POSSIBLY OVER 40MPH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS CORE OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION ROTATING SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH IT.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT
EXPECTED WITHIN NORTH/NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKES
MICHIGAN/HURON...WITH HIGHEST QPF FRIDAY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER AS A RESULT.  PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON WITH A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR
PRECIPITATION OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION OVER TO MORE SNOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS STILL RAIN OR MIXY CLOSER TO
THE LAKES)...AND THINK AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION INLAND IS
REASONABLE (AN INCH OR LESS EASTERN UPPER WHERE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO END SOONER).  GUSTY NORTH WINDS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL MAKE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY...EVEN WITH
SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH
EXPECTED MOST AREAS...40-50MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHWEST LOWER
SHORELINE WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY STARTING FRIDAY
MORNING. SO NOT A PRETTY LOOKING TRICK-OR-TREAT PERIOD EXPECTED.  BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE CONVECTION WITH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE HURON/MICHIGAN.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): WHILE STORMINESS IMPACTS THE
EAST COAST...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE EASTERN STORM AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGING SPANNING
THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  BUT DOES LOOK LIKE THINGS
WILL TREND QUIETER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.  WILL
START WEDNESDAY DRY BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA OVERNIGHT AND
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THAT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SLIDE INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO SOLID MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR THURSDAY EVENING AS RAIN SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.  STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT THE GRADIENT THAT SETS UP BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND
THAT WILL DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UPWARD ESPECIALLY WITH A DECREASE IN
OVER WATER STABILITY AND A FAVORABLE ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT.  GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN MOST LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
ZONES...SO CURRENT GALE WARNINGS/WATCHES WILL REMAIN INTACT (AND
WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ348-349.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 292345
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A 991MB SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMES BAY IN NORTHERN
QUEBEC SWEPT A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
LAST NIGHT. THIS HAS LED TO A POCKET OF COLD AIR AT 850MB (AROUND
-5C) TO HELP PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS PAST
MORNING. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...DRYING ALOFT
IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE HAS LED TO
THE CLOUDS TOPS QUICKLY LOWERING THIS MORNING FROM 8KFT TO 5KFT BY
14Z. THIS HAS STAYED STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS HELPING TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
UPPER MICHIGAN UNDER THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THAT AREA THIS
EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT SLIGHTLY WARMING AND REDUCING
THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. OVER THE WEST...THE BACKING WINDS WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) AND THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE HAS DIMINISHED THE
SHOWERS (WEBCAMS INDICATING PAVEMENT DRYING)...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP MUCH OF THAT AREA
CLOUDY TONIGHT. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OR
EVEN CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD AFTER DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. DID
TRY TO SHOW A QUICK PERIOD OF PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS SLIDE BACK IN.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE
FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS
AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STRETCH A WEAK TROUGH NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA...THE FORCING IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY BELOW 0.20 INCH. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
BACKING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH/LOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT HIGHER AMOUNTS AND A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWERING OF THE CLOUD TOPS CREATES SOME CONCERN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME POTENTIAL OF SNOW DUE TO THE
STRONGER SHOWERS LIKELY RISING A LITTLE HIGHER AND INTO COLDER
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECT PLENTY OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
CLOUD AND THE PRECIP TYPE DEPENDS ON THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
WETBULB0 VALUES HAVE BEEN HANDLING THESE EVENTS WELL OVER THE LAST
MONTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THAT FOR THE RAIN/SNOW FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATING WETBULB0 VALUES BETWEEN
900-2100FT SO WILL GO WITH RAIN/SNOW (OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN) TO
MAINLY RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN AS
THE COLDER AIR STARTS SURGING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. A
SECONDARY AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURES WILL
DRIVE THE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THU NIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING TO THE SE FROM NW ONTARIO WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV ACROSS UPPER MI BRINGING PCPN TO UPPER
MICHIGAN. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING AS COLD AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE
AREA WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS AROUND LOW PRES MOVING INTO LAKE HURON.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -7C
TO -9C RANGE BY 06Z (LAKE SFC AROUND 7C) WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WHERE UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW IS STRONGEST...FROM IRONWOOD TO ROCKLAND AND
OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE GROUND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WARM...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS ON BOTH
GRASSY SURFACES AND ROADWAYS AS INLAND SFC TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 30.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE MAY REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE
SEASON AND MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE WET/HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD LIMIT
BLOWING/DRIFTING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE WHERE SFC
TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AS QVECTOR DIV AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BTWN
09Z-15Z. INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR -12C FOR LIGHT EFFECT SNOW...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE NRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. BY AFTERNOON...SFC RIDGING AND ACYC FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROMINENT WHICH WILL FURTHER REDUCE LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT PCPN. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES AND WINDS
DIMINISH TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF...INTO THE UPPER TEENS INLAND
WEST AND LOWER TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REST OF UPPER MI...EXCEPT
THE SHORELINES.

SAT AND SUN...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING A MID LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH MODERATING
TEMPS SUN AS SRLY FLOW AND WAA TAKES OVER. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S SAT WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 40S SUN.

MON-WED...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PCPN FORECAST IS HIGH GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING BTWN NRN AND SRN STREAMS AND ASSOCIATED TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES. A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

CIGS GENERALLY MVFR ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. VFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AT SAW BEFORE RETURNING TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH CIGS DROPPING BELOW 2000 FT. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER AIR ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU
AFTN INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN NWLY THU AFTN THEN NLY THU
NIGHT...LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW AND IWD THU NIGHT INTO FRI...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS BEYOND THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
STRETCH A RIDGE NORTH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WINDS TONIGHT BELOW 15KTS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A
STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...EXPECT GALES UP TO 40KTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THE EXISTING GALE WATCH. THE GALES WILL
COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20KTS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT (WINDS UP TO
25KTS) AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KGRR 292311
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
711 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THAT WILL
LIKELY CHANCE TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY ON HALLOWEEN TOO. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
ALL SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATER AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AREA POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MOST OF THAT BEING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.

THE PHASING OF A STRONGLY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM RESULTS IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING BETWEEN .25 AND .50
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE CWA. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SINCE THE MODELS
OVERALL DO NOT HANDLE ARCTIC ORIGIN WAVES ALL THAT WELL THE STRONG
GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER WAY TO GO.

AS FOR THE QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE... I LOOK AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE 0C ISOTHERM IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS MY PRIMARY TOOL. THIS
SHOWS THE HEIGHT FALLING TO NEAR 1000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING SO
WITH IT THAT CLOSE TO THE GROUND I HAVE TO BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW BY THEN. SINCE THAT IS TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT... ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. I
WOULD THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE THE
LIMIT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.

ONE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS EVENT IS THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN. THE GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 300 J/KG OVER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS BY 18Z FRIDAY. I ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST FOR AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS TO COVER THIS ISSUE.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE WIND... THERE IS 50 TO 60 KNOTS IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 AGL LAYER BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GIVEN THIS IS DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
I HAVE TO BELIEVE A LOT OF THIS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND SO I WOULD
THINK A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. TO EARLY FOR THAT YET
THROUGH. I DID INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS IS
LEAVING THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OPEN CELL CU TO OUR NORTH MOVING SOUTH AND
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH THIS EVENING SO ALL OF THE
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING TONIGHT
INLAND OF US-131. TOWARD MORNING WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SO THE
LAKE CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES
IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THAT A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES EXPECTED. FEEL THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.

A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL...IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR WEATHER TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF LAKE MOISTURE COULD OCCUR NEAR THE
LAKESHORE...BUT BASED ON TRENDS...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH.

LOOKING AHEAD...A FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH IMPACTS LIKELY TO AVIATORS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS AND WAVES ARE
DIMINISHING IN THE NEAR SHORE AND WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN TONIGHT
I WOULD EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. I EXPECT WINDS OF GALE FORCE TO
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SO I ADDED THOSE TO THE FORECAST TOO.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KDTX 292305
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
705 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM MISSOURI NORTHWARD THROUGH
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND THEN MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND
OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR AND A MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF VFR
BASED STRATOCU DURING THE NIGHT. PLAN TO MONITOR COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE MAKING A MORE AGGRESSIVE LOW
CLOUD FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND BACKING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST COULD BRING THOSE CLOUDS EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILING WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LIGHT RAIN BECOMES POSSIBLE
THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
WILL BOTH COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. BRIEF RIDGING
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MOSTLY CALM AND CLOUD COVER TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE DRY
AIR WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING...ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND TO KEEP SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
GIVING WAY TO A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE METRO DETROIT
AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST. ALTHOUGH QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE
RIDGE TOMORROW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE
ARRIVES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH CANADA...AND
AS THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIVES INTO MO/IL.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A MOISTLY CLOUDY DAY FROM THE AFTERNOON GOING
FORWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH
AS IT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS...EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND
OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL THIS SEASON. SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY FROM WAY UP OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND NUNAVUT WILL
CONSOLIDATE AS THEY DIVE THROUGH CANADA AND AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH GFS/NAM
MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE TIMING OF THE EURO/GEM. THIS LOOKS
TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 20Z. FGEN FORCING AND STRONG PVA WILL WORK WITH A MODEST THETA-E
PLUME SURGING UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE VERY COLD AIR COMING IN WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
AND HOW SOON PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY (MAX TEMPS
WILL BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY FOR ALL BUT THE DETROIT AREA)
..LOOKING TO START BY MID-MORNING NEAR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
FINALLY SWITCH OVER NEAR THE CITY OF DETROIT DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW BY 800 PM...WITH POTENTIALLY AN
EXCEPTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON WHERE WINDS WILL
BE OFF THE WARMER WATER.

MOISTURE WILL START TO PULL AWAY AS THE LOW EXITS EAST
HOWEVER...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUALLY REASSESS THIS WITH EACH RUN OF NEW MODEL DATA HOWEVER.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY STICK ON THE
GROUND WITH WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES AND PAVEMENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (A FEW TENTHS LOOK BEST RIGHT NOW) WILL BE ON
ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR STEEPENS LAPSE RATES AND DEEPENS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRONGER EURO MODEL...WHICH HAS A CORE OF 40-
50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 925 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY BY
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE GUSTY WINDS ARE FACTORED IN.
EVENING WIND CHILLS LOOK TO RUN BETWEEN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT OFF LAKE HURON AFTER THE LOW PULLS AWAY...WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATER AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS VERY COLD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. COLD AIR
ADVECTION DOES SLOW DOWN...BUT THE 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE HURON
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 K/KM RANGE WHICH WILL SPARK SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. THE DELTA T WILL SHRINK AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING FROM THE WEST WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES AFTER NOON. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN
SUN-MON AND PROVIDE A WARMING TREND. THIS TREND SHOULD SURVIVE THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
ONLY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 560 DAM.

MARINE...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER
MUCH OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR LAKE ST
CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. THE STRONG PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 14 FEET OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER LARGE WAVES WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ442-443-463-464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 292305
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
705 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM MISSOURI NORTHWARD THROUGH
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND THEN MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND
OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR AND A MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF VFR
BASED STRATOCU DURING THE NIGHT. PLAN TO MONITOR COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE MAKING A MORE AGGRESSIVE LOW
CLOUD FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND BACKING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST COULD BRING THOSE CLOUDS EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILING WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LIGHT RAIN BECOMES POSSIBLE
THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
WILL BOTH COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. BRIEF RIDGING
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MOSTLY CALM AND CLOUD COVER TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE DRY
AIR WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING...ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND TO KEEP SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
GIVING WAY TO A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE METRO DETROIT
AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST. ALTHOUGH QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE
RIDGE TOMORROW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE
ARRIVES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH CANADA...AND
AS THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIVES INTO MO/IL.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A MOISTLY CLOUDY DAY FROM THE AFTERNOON GOING
FORWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH
AS IT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS...EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND
OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL THIS SEASON. SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY FROM WAY UP OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND NUNAVUT WILL
CONSOLIDATE AS THEY DIVE THROUGH CANADA AND AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH GFS/NAM
MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE TIMING OF THE EURO/GEM. THIS LOOKS
TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 20Z. FGEN FORCING AND STRONG PVA WILL WORK WITH A MODEST THETA-E
PLUME SURGING UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE VERY COLD AIR COMING IN WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
AND HOW SOON PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY (MAX TEMPS
WILL BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY FOR ALL BUT THE DETROIT AREA)
..LOOKING TO START BY MID-MORNING NEAR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
FINALLY SWITCH OVER NEAR THE CITY OF DETROIT DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW BY 800 PM...WITH POTENTIALLY AN
EXCEPTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON WHERE WINDS WILL
BE OFF THE WARMER WATER.

MOISTURE WILL START TO PULL AWAY AS THE LOW EXITS EAST
HOWEVER...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUALLY REASSESS THIS WITH EACH RUN OF NEW MODEL DATA HOWEVER.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY STICK ON THE
GROUND WITH WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES AND PAVEMENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (A FEW TENTHS LOOK BEST RIGHT NOW) WILL BE ON
ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR STEEPENS LAPSE RATES AND DEEPENS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRONGER EURO MODEL...WHICH HAS A CORE OF 40-
50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 925 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY BY
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE GUSTY WINDS ARE FACTORED IN.
EVENING WIND CHILLS LOOK TO RUN BETWEEN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT OFF LAKE HURON AFTER THE LOW PULLS AWAY...WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATER AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS VERY COLD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. COLD AIR
ADVECTION DOES SLOW DOWN...BUT THE 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE HURON
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 K/KM RANGE WHICH WILL SPARK SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. THE DELTA T WILL SHRINK AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING FROM THE WEST WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES AFTER NOON. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN
SUN-MON AND PROVIDE A WARMING TREND. THIS TREND SHOULD SURVIVE THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
ONLY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 560 DAM.

MARINE...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER
MUCH OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR LAKE ST
CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. THE STRONG PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 14 FEET OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER LARGE WAVES WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ442-443-463-464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 292300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SINCE LAST NIGHT PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING LEADING
TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP BY OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH 1000-500 MB RH
DROPPING FROM NEARLY 80 PERCENT AT THE HOUR OF THIS WRITING TO ABOUT
55 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVER LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT (LAKE/850 MB
DELTA T`S OF ABOUT +13 OR +14). THE DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM DUE
IN ON THURSDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. THIS COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING ONLY LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCALS LATER TONIGHT. A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS
THE MELTING LAYER SHRINKS TO ABOUT 1200 FEET AGL OR SO. AM A BIT
CONCERNED ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
CLOUDS LOOKING RATHER CELLULAR. SO IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR AND COMBINE WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...LOWS COULD EASILY FALL
OFF INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S INLAND. THEREFORE...HAVE CUT
FORECAST LOWS/MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...RAW LOOKING HALLOWEEN ON TAP WITH WIND AND RAIN/SNOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THAT SAME TIME FRAME...40+MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG
EXPOSED SHORELINE AREAS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANS...PART OF A FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN.  LARGER SCALE TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TODAY.  SOME FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THROUGH WHICH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER PACIFIC TROPICAL
CYCLONE "ANA" IS MOVING THROUGH (OVER MONTANA/WYOMING)...WITH
ANOTHER BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES OF
CENTRAL CANADA.  ANOTHER STRONG LARGER SCALE TROUGH WAS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 991MB SURFACE LOW WRAPPED
UP EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS.  HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSED THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL CANADA.

THE EARLIER MENTIONED PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO CARVE OUT A STRONG TROUGH HEADING INTO HALLOWEEN FRIDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA.  THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (AND COLD TEMPERATURES) TO MICHIGAN
BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING PROVIDES A REPRIEVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WILL BE WATCHING TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.  RESULT WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BETWEEN DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST.
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER LAKES/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): IMPACTS OF DEVELOPING
HALLOWEEN SYSTEM THE OBVIOUS MAJOR CONCERN...PRECIPITATION
(EVOLUTION AND TYPE)/WINDS AND TRICK-OR-TREATING CONDITIONS
(PROBABLY NOT THE BEST).  INITIALLY WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH MORE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WILL BE A RELATIVE "CALM BEFORE THE
STORM" ON THURSDAY WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES.  SHORT WAVE REMNANTS OF "ANA" EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE COMING OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  BUT ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND
TROUGHING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM RESIDUAL LAKE PROCESSES (WHICH
MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY LAKE INDUCED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER/NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY TO START THE DAY).
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGEST
HEIGHT FALLS/QG SUPPORT OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL START TO PULL IN COLDER AIR.  SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CONCERN OVER EASTERN UPPER...WHERE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS..AND CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH A MENTIONING AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION MAY START TO TRANSITION OVER TOWARD SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.  SPEAKING OF RAMPING UP WINDS...SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTH/WEST FACING SHORELINE AREAS.  WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED INITIALLY...POSSIBLY OVER 40MPH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS CORE OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION ROTATING SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH IT.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT
EXPECTED WITHIN NORTH/NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKES
MICHIGAN/HURON...WITH HIGHEST QPF FRIDAY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER AS A RESULT.  PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON WITH A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR
PRECIPITATION OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION OVER TO MORE SNOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS STILL RAIN OR MIXY CLOSER TO
THE LAKES)...AND THINK AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION INLAND IS
REASONABLE (AN INCH OR LESS EASTERN UPPER WHERE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO END SOONER).  GUSTY NORTH WINDS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL MAKE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY...EVEN WITH
SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH
EXPECTED MOST AREAS...40-50MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHWEST LOWER
SHORELINE WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY STARTING FRIDAY
MORNING. SO NOT A PRETTY LOOKING TRICK-OR-TREAT PERIOD EXPECTED.  BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE CONVECTION WITH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE HURON/MICHIGAN.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): WHILE STORMINESS IMPACTS THE
EAST COAST...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE EASTERN STORM AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGING SPANNING
THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  BUT DOES LOOK LIKE THINGS
WILL TREND QUIETER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.  WILL
START WEDNESDAY DRY BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AS IT HEADS INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...
IMPACTING MAINLY TVC AND MBL...WITH MAINLY LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY AS THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SLIDE INTO NRN MICHIGAN. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
SOLID MVFR...WITH IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR LATER AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.  STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT THE GRADIENT THAT SETS UP BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND
THAT WILL DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UPWARD ESPECIALLY WITH A DECREASE IN
OVER WATER STABILITY AND A FAVORABLE ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT.  GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN MOST LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
ZONES...SO CURRENT GALE WARNINGS/WATCHES WILL REMAIN INTACT (AND
WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ348-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KGRR 292100
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
500 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THAT WILL
LIKELY CHANCE TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY ON HALLOWEEN TOO. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
ALL SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATER AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AREA POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MOST OF THAT BEING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.

THE PHASING OF A STRONGLY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM RESULTS IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING BETWEEN .25 AND .50
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE CWA. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SINCE THE MODELS
OVERALL DO NOT HANDLE ARCTIC ORIGIN WAVES ALL THAT WELL THE STRONG
GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER WAY TO GO.

AS FOR THE QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE... I LOOK AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE 0C ISOTHERM IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS MY PRIMARY TOOL. THIS
SHOWS THE HEIGHT FALLING TO NEAR 1000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING SO
WITH IT THAT CLOSE TO THE GROUND I HAVE TO BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW BY THEN. SINCE THAT IS TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT... ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. I
WOULD THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE THE
LIMIT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.

ONE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS EVENT IS THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN. THE GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 300 J/KG OVER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS BY 18Z FRIDAY. I ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST FOR AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS TO COVER THIS ISSUE.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE WIND... THERE IS 50 TO 60 KNOTS IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 AGL LAYER BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GIVEN THIS IS DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
I HAVE TO BELIEVE A LOT OF THIS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND SO I WOULD
THINK A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. TO EARLY FOR THAT YET
THROUGH. I DID INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS IS
LEAVING THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OPEN CELL CU TO OUR NORTH MOVING SOUTH AND
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH THIS EVENING SO ALL OF THE
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING TONIGHT
INLAND OF US-131. TOWARD MORNING WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SO THE
LAKE CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES
IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THAT A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES EXPECTED. FEEL THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.

A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL...IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

CEILINGS AROUND 3000FT ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH A
VARIANCE BOTH ABOVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND BELOW INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FIRST FOUR HOURS AS THE
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY. OVERNIGHT...FELT THAT MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH VFR
INLAND.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE GENERATED CLOUDS
ALL THE WAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...THE QUESTION IS WILL THEY BE
ABOVE OR BELOW 3000FT. DECIDED TO GO MORE PESSIMISTICALLY TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND TIME OF DAY.
THE HOLES IN THE OVERCAST UPSTREAM THOUGH ARE A BIT CONCERNING.
FEEL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...SO NO REAL RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES. A
NORTHWEST WIND OF 8-16 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS AND WAVES ARE
DIMINISHING IN THE NEAR SHORE AND WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN TONIGHT
I WOULD EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. I EXPECT WINDS OF GALE FORCE TO
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SO I ADDED THOSE TO THE FORECAST TOO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KMQT 292056
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
456 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A 991MB SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMES BAY IN NORTHERN
QUEBEC SWEPT A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
LAST NIGHT. THIS HAS LED TO A POCKET OF COLD AIR AT 850MB (AROUND
-5C) TO HELP PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS PAST
MORNING. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...DRYING ALOFT
IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE HAS LED TO
THE CLOUDS TOPS QUICKLY LOWERING THIS MORNING FROM 8KFT TO 5KFT BY
14Z. THIS HAS STAYED STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS HELPING TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
UPPER MICHIGAN UNDER THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THAT AREA THIS
EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT SLIGHTLY WARMING AND REDUCING
THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. OVER THE WEST...THE BACKING WINDS WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) AND THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE HAS DIMINISHED THE
SHOWERS (WEBCAMS INDICATING PAVEMENT DRYING)...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP MUCH OF THAT AREA
CLOUDY TONIGHT. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OR
EVEN CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD AFTER DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. DID
TRY TO SHOW A QUICK PERIOD OF PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS SLIDE BACK IN.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE
FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS
AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STRETCH A WEAK TROUGH NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA...THE FORCING IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY BELOW 0.20 INCH. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
BACKING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH/LOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT HIGHER AMOUNTS AND A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWERING OF THE CLOUD TOPS CREATES SOME CONCERN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME POTENTIAL OF SNOW DUE TO THE
STRONGER SHOWERS LIKELY RISING A LITTLE HIGHER AND INTO COLDER
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECT PLENTY OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
CLOUD AND THE PRECIP TYPE DEPENDS ON THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
WETBULB0 VALUES HAVE BEEN HANDLING THESE EVENTS WELL OVER THE LAST
MONTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THAT FOR THE RAIN/SNOW FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATING WETBULB0 VALUES BETWEEN
900-2100FT SO WILL GO WITH RAIN/SNOW (OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN) TO
MAINLY RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN AS
THE COLDER AIR STARTS SURGING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. A
SECONDARY AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURES WILL
DRIVE THE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THU NIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING TO THE SE FROM NW ONTARIO WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV ACROSS UPPER MI BRINGING PCPN TO UPPER
MICHIGAN. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING AS COLD AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE
AREA WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS AROUND LOW PRES MOVING INTO LAKE HURON.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -7C
TO -9C RANGE BY 06Z (LAKE SFC AROUND 7C) WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WHERE UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW IS STRONGEST...FROM IRONWOOD TO ROCKLAND AND
OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE GROUND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WARM...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS ON BOTH
GRASSY SURFACES AND ROADWAYS AS INLAND SFC TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 30.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE MAY REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE
SEASON AND MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE WET/HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD LIMIT
BLOWING/DRIFTING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE WHERE SFC
TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AS QVECTOR DIV AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BTWN
09Z-15Z. INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR -12C FOR LIGHT EFFECT SNOW...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE NRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. BY AFTERNOON...SFC RIDGING AND ACYC FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROMINENT WHICH WILL FURTHER REDUCE LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT PCPN. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES AND WINDS
DIMINISH TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF...INTO THE UPPER TEENS INLAND
WEST AND LOWER TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REST OF UPPER MI...EXCEPT
THE SHORELINES.

SAT AND SUN...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING A MID LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH MODERATING
TEMPS SUN AS SRLY FLOW AND WAA TAKES OVER. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S SAT WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 40S SUN.

MON-WED...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PCPN FORECAST IS HIGH GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING BTWN NRN AND SRN STREAMS AND ASSOCIATED TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES. A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC AND A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE CONVECTIVE LOOK OF THE
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DO HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING TO CLEARING
OF THE CLOUDS AROUND/AFTER SUNSET BEFORE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP KCMX/KIWD AT
MVFR BUT DID TREND KSAW UP TO VFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DUE TO THE
BACKING WINDS AIDING A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE...AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THAT PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KCMX...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
STRETCH A RIDGE NORTH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WINDS TONIGHT BELOW 15KTS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A
STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...EXPECT GALES UP TO 40KTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THE EXISTING GALE WATCH. THE GALES WILL
COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20KTS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT (WINDS UP TO
25KTS) AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KAPX 292010
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SINCE LAST NIGHT PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING LEADING
TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP BY OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH 1000-500 MB RH
DROPPING FROM NEARLY 80 PERCENT AT THE HOUR OF THIS WRITING TO ABOUT
55 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVER LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT (LAKE/850 MB
DELTA T`S OF ABOUT +13 OR +14). THE DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM DUE
IN ON THURSDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. THIS COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING ONLY LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCALS LATER TONIGHT. A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS
THE MELTING LAYER SHRINKS TO ABOUT 1200 FEET AGL OR SO. AM A BIT
CONCERNED ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
CLOUDS LOOKING RATHER CELLULAR. SO IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR AND COMBINE WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...LOWS COULD EASILY FALL
OFF INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S INLAND. THEREFORE...HAVE CUT
FORECAST LOWS/MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...RAW LOOKING HALLOWEEN ON TAP WITH WIND AND RAIN/SNOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THAT SAME TIME FRAME...40+MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG
EXPOSED SHORELINE AREAS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANS...PART OF A FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN.  LARGER SCALE TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TODAY.  SOME FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THROUGH WHICH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER PACIFIC TROPICAL
CYCLONE "ANA" IS MOVING THROUGH (OVER MONTANA/WYOMING)...WITH
ANOTHER BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES OF
CENTRAL CANADA.  ANOTHER STRONG LARGER SCALE TROUGH WAS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 991MB SURFACE LOW WRAPPED
UP EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS.  HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSED THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL CANADA.

THE EARLIER MENTIONED PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO CARVE OUT A STRONG TROUGH HEADING INTO HALLOWEEN FRIDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA.  THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (AND COLD TEMPERATURES) TO MICHIGAN
BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING PROVIDES A REPRIEVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WILL BE WATCHING TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.  RESULT WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BETWEEN DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST.
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER LAKES/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): IMPACTS OF DEVELOPING
HALLOWEEN SYSTEM THE OBVIOUS MAJOR CONCERN...PRECIPITATION
(EVOLUTION AND TYPE)/WINDS AND TRICK-OR-TREATING CONDITIONS
(PROBABLY NOT THE BEST).  INITIALLY WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH MORE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WILL BE A RELATIVE "CALM BEFORE THE
STORM" ON THURSDAY WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES.  SHORT WAVE REMNANTS OF "ANA" EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE COMING OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  BUT ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND
TROUGHING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM RESIDUAL LAKE PROCESSES (WHICH
MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY LAKE INDUCED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER/NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY TO START THE DAY).
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGEST
HEIGHT FALLS/QG SUPPORT OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL START TO PULL IN COLDER AIR.  SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CONCERN OVER EASTERN UPPER...WHERE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS..AND CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH A MENTIONING AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION MAY START TO TRANSITION OVER TOWARD SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.  SPEAKING OF RAMPING UP WINDS...SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTH/WEST FACING SHORELINE AREAS.  WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED INITIALLY...POSSIBLY OVER 40MPH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS CORE OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION ROTATING SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH IT.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT
EXPECTED WITHIN NORTH/NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKES
MICHIGAN/HURON...WITH HIGHEST QPF FRIDAY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER AS A RESULT.  PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON WITH A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR
PRECIPITATION OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION OVER TO MORE SNOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS STILL RAIN OR MIXY CLOSER TO
THE LAKES)...AND THINK AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION INLAND IS
REASONABLE (AN INCH OR LESS EASTERN UPPER WHERE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO END SOONER).  GUSTY NORTH WINDS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL MAKE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY...EVEN WITH
SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH
EXPECTED MOST AREAS...40-50MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHWEST LOWER
SHORELINE WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY STARTING FRIDAY
MORNING. SO NOT A PRETTY LOOKING TRICK-OR-TREAT PERIOD EXPECTED.  BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE CONVECTION WITH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE HURON/MICHIGAN.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): WHILE STORMINESS IMPACTS THE
EAST COAST...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE EASTERN STORM AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGING SPANNING
THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  BUT DOES LOOK LIKE THINGS
WILL TREND QUIETER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.  WILL
START WEDNESDAY DRY BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN MOISTURE IS STRIPPING OUT AT THE MOMENT AS
STORM SYSTEM RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL MARGINAL LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING POSSIBLY LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS. DRIER AIR THEN LOOKS TO ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING YIELDING A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH TEMPORARY IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY AT TVC AND MBL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TODAY THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.  STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT THE GRADIENT THAT SETS UP BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND
THAT WILL DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UPWARD ESPECIALLY WITH A DECREASE IN
OVER WATER STABILITY AND A FAVORABLE ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT.  GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN MOST LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
ZONES...SO CURRENT GALE WARNINGS/WATCHES WILL REMAIN INTACT (AND
WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ348-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KDTX 292003
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
403 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
WILL BOTH COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. BRIEF RIDGING
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MOSTLY CALM AND CLOUD COVER TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE DRY
AIR WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING...ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND TO KEEP SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
GIVING WAY TO A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE METRO DETROIT
AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST. ALTHOUGH QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE
RIDGE TOMORROW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE
ARRIVES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH CANADA...AND
AS THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIVES INTO MO/IL.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A MOISTLY CLOUDY DAY FROM THE AFTERNOON GOING
FORWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH
AS IT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS...EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND
OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL THIS SEASON. SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY FROM WAY UP OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND NUNAVUT WILL
CONSOLIDATE AS THEY DIVE THROUGH CANADA AND AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH GFS/NAM
MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE TIMING OF THE EURO/GEM. THIS LOOKS
TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 20Z. FGEN FORCING AND STRONG PVA WILL WORK WITH A MODEST THETA-E
PLUME SURGING UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE VERY COLD AIR COMING IN WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
AND HOW SOON PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. CHANGEOVER
WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY (MAX TEMPS
WILL BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY FOR ALL BUT THE DETROIT AREA)
...LOOKING TO START BY MID-MORNING NEAR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
FINALLY SWITCH OVER NEAR THE CITY OF DETROIT DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW BY 800 PM...WITH POTENTIALLY AN
EXCEPTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON WHERE WINDS WILL
BE OFF THE WARMER WATER.

MOISTURE WILL START TO PULL AWAY AS THE LOW EXITS EAST
HOWEVER...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUALLY REASSESS THIS WITH EACH RUN OF NEW MODEL DATA HOWEVER.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY STICK ON THE
GROUND WITH WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES AND PAVEMENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (A FEW TENTHS LOOK BEST RIGHT NOW) WILL BE ON
ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR STEEPENS LAPSE RATES AND DEEPENS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRONGER EURO MODEL...WHICH HAS A CORE OF 40-
50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 925 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY BY
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE GUSTY WINDS ARE FACTORED IN.
EVENING WIND CHILLS LOOK TO RUN BETWEEN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT OFF LAKE HURON AFTER THE LOW PULLS AWAY...WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATER AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS VERY COLD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. COLD AIR
ADVECTION DOES SLOW DOWN...BUT THE 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE HURON
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 K/KM RANGE WHICH WILL SPARK SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. THE DELTA T WILL SHRINK AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING FROM THE WEST WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES AFTER NOON. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN
SUN-MON AND PROVIDE A WARMING TREND. THIS TREND SHOULD SURVIVE THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
ONLY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 560 DAM.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER
MUCH OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR LAKE ST
CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. THE STRONG PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 14 FEET OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER LARGE WAVES WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 131 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXPECTING BROKEN CEILINGS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH UP
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVERNIGHT WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND CLOUDS TO THIN SLIGHTLY AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE DRY AIR FILTERING
IN TONIGHT...WILL STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUD DECK TO
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT
  BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 5000 FT THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ442-443-463-464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....RK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291953 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
347 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THAT WILL
LIKELY CHANCE TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY ON HALLOWEEN TOO. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
ALL SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATER AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AREA POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MOST OF THAT BEING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.

THE PHASING OF A STRONGLY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM RESULTS IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING BETWEEN .25 AND .50
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE CWA. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SINCE THE MODELS
OVERALL DO NOT HANDLE ARCTIC ORIGIN WAVES ALL THAT WELL THE STRONG
GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER WAY TO GO.

AS FOR THE QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE... I LOOK AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE 0C ISOTHERM IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS MY PRIMARY TOOL. THIS
SHOWS THE HEIGHT FALLING TO NEAR 1000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING SO
WITH IT THAT CLOSE TO THE GROUND I HAVE TO BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW BY THEN. SINCE THAT IS TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT... ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. I
WOULD THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE THE
LIMIT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.

ONE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS EVENT IS THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN. THE GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 300 J/KG OVER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS BY 18Z FRIDAY. I ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST FOR AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS TO COVER THIS ISSUE.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE WIND... THERE IS 50 TO 60 KNOTS IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 AGL LAYER BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GIVEN THIS IS DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
I HAVE TO BELIEVE A LOT OF THIS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND SO I WOULD
THINK A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. TO EARLY FOR THAT YET
THROUGH. I DID INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS IS
LEAVING THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OPEN CELL CU TO OUR NORTH MOVING SOUTH AND
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH THIS EVENING SO ALL OF THE
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING TONIGHT
INLAND OF US-131. TOWARD MORNING WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SO THE
LAKE CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES
IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THAT A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES EXPECTED. FEEL THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.

A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL...IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

CEILINGS AROUND 3000FT ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH A
VARIANCE BOTH ABOVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND BELOW INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FIRST FOUR HOURS AS THE
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY. OVERNIGHT...FELT THAT MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH VFR
INLAND.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE GENERATED CLOUDS
ALL THE WAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...THE QUESTION IS WILL THEY BE
ABOVE OR BELOW 3000FT. DECIDED TO GO MORE PESSIMISTICALLY TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND TIME OF DAY.
THE HOLES IN THE OVERCAST UPSTREAM THOUGH ARE A BIT CONCERNING.
FEEL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...SO NO REAL RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES. A
NORTHWEST WIND OF 8-16 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I DID NOT CHANGE THE HEADLINES AT ALL. I DO BELIEVE WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING IN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AROUND 5 PM AS SUGGESTED IN THE FORECAST.

THE GALE WARNING MAY BE UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING BUT I THROUGH
IT GOOD TO WAIT FROM ONE MORE SET OF MODEL RUNS (MIDNIGHT SHIFTS)
TO BE SURE IF WE ISSUE THE STORM WARNING... IT WILL NOT BE DROPPED
AGAIN LATER.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NEAR SHORE AREAS
FRIDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SPC SREF 3 HOUR CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FROM THE 09Z RUN SHOWS THIS NICELY BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. SO I ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NEAR SHORE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM









000
FXUS63 KGRR 291943
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THAT WILL
LIKELY CHANCE TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY ON HALLOWEEN TOO. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
ALL SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATER AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AREA POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MOST OF THAT BEING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.

THE PHASING OF A STRONGLY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM RESULTS IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING BETWEEN .25 AND .50
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE CWA. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SINCE THE MODELS
OVERALL DO NOT HANDLE ARCTIC ORIGIN WAVES ALL THAT WELL THE STRONG
GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER WAY TO GO.

AS FOR THE QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE... I LOOK AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE 0C ISOTHERM IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS MY PRIMARY TOOL. THIS
SHOWS THE HEIGHT FALLING TO NEAR 1000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING SO
WITH IT THAT CLOSE TO THE GROUND I HAVE TO BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW BY THEN. SINCE THAT IS TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT... ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. I
WOULD THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE THE
LIMIT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE WIND... THERE IS 50 TO 60 KNOTS IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 AGL LAYER BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GIVEN THIS IS DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
I HAVE TO BELIEVE A LOT OF THIS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND SO I WOULD
THINK A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. TO EARLY FOR THAT YET
THROUGH. I DID INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS IS
LEAVING THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OPEN CELL CU TO OUR NORTH MOVING SOUTH AND
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH THIS EVENING SO ALL OF THE
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING TONIGHT
INLAND OF US-131. TOWARD MORNING WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SO THE
LAKE CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES
IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THAT A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES EXPECTED. FEEL THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.

A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL...IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

CEILINGS AROUND 3000FT ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH A
VARIANCE BOTH ABOVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND BELOW INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FIRST FOUR HOURS AS THE
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY. OVERNIGHT...FELT THAT MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH VFR
INLAND.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE GENERATED CLOUDS
ALL THE WAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...THE QUESTION IS WILL THEY BE
ABOVE OR BELOW 3000FT. DECIDED TO GO MORE PESSIMISTICALLY TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND TIME OF DAY.
THE HOLES IN THE OVERCAST UPSTREAM THOUGH ARE A BIT CONCERNING.
FEEL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...SO NO REAL RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES. A
NORTHWEST WIND OF 8-16 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I DID NOT CHANGE THE HEADLINES AT ALL. I DO BELIEVE WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING IN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AROUND 5 PM AS SUGGESTED IN THE FORECAST.

THE GALE WARNING MAY BE UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING BUT I THROUGH
IT GOOD TO WAIT FROM ONE MORE SET OF MODEL RUNS (MIDNIGHT SHIFTS)
TO BE SURE IF WE ISSUE THE STORM WARNING... IT WILL NOT BE DROPPED
AGAIN LATER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KMQT 291926
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
326 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A 991MB SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMES BAY IN NORTHERN
QUEBEC SWEPT A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
LAST NIGHT. THIS HAS LED TO A POCKET OF COLD AIR AT 850MB (AROUND
-5C) TO HELP PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS PAST
MORNING. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...DRYING ALOFT
IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE HAS LED TO
THE CLOUDS TOPS QUICKLY LOWERING THIS MORNING FROM 8KFT TO 5KFT BY
14Z. THIS HAS STAYED STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS HELPING TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
UPPER MICHIGAN UNDER THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THAT AREA THIS
EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT SLIGHTLY WARMING AND REDUCING
THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. OVER THE WEST...THE BACKING WINDS WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) AND THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE HAS DIMINISHED THE
SHOWERS (WEBCAMS INDICATING PAVEMENT DRYING)...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP MUCH OF THAT AREA
CLOUDY TONIGHT. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OR
EVEN CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD AFTER DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. DID
TRY TO SHOW A QUICK PERIOD OF PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS SLIDE BACK IN.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE
FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS
AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STRETCH A WEAK TROUGH NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA...THE FORCING IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY BELOW 0.20 INCH. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
BACKING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH/LOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT HIGHER AMOUNTS AND A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWERING OF THE CLOUD TOPS CREATES SOME CONCERN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME POTENTIAL OF SNOW DUE TO THE
STRONGER SHOWERS LIKELY RISING A LITTLE HIGHER AND INTO COLDER
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECT PLENTY OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
CLOUD AND THE PRECIP TYPE DEPENDS ON THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
WETBULB0 VALUES HAVE BEEN HANDLING THESE EVENTS WELL OVER THE LAST
MONTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THAT FOR THE RAIN/SNOW FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATING WETBULB0 VALUES BETWEEN
900-2100FT SO WILL GO WITH RAIN/SNOW (OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN) TO
MAINLY RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN AS
THE COLDER AIR STARTS SURGING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. A
SECONDARY AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURES WILL
DRIVE THE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

NAM SHOWS 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE 12Z TUE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON TUE AND BOTH MOVE OUT ON FRI. LAKE
EFFECT PCPN WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN AND SNOW. WITH THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVING...BUMPED UP THE SNOW RATIOS AND BECAUSE OF THIS...STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THU AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY EVENING RANGE
FROM AROUND 0.5 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN CWA UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE HURON
MOUNTAINS WHICH IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE COLD AIR COMING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION. GFS AND NAM ARE
SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -10C TO -12C THU NIGHT AND
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 6C TO 8C...THAT IS
ENOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AND SNOW. DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
12Z SAT WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN. A 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z MON AND THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. FORECAST WILL START OUT DRY SAT INTO SUNDAY
AND THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MON INTO TUE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL START A WARMING TREND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC AND A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE CONVECTIVE LOOK OF THE
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DO HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING TO CLEARING
OF THE CLOUDS AROUND/AFTER SUNSET BEFORE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP KCMX/KIWD AT
MVFR BUT DID TREND KSAW UP TO VFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DUE TO THE
BACKING WINDS AIDING A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE...AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THAT PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KCMX...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
STRETCH A RIDGE NORTH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WINDS TONIGHT BELOW 15KTS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A
STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...EXPECT GALES UP TO 40KTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THE EXISTING GALE WATCH. THE GALES WILL
COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20KTS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT (WINDS UP TO
25KTS) AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291809
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
209 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE HALLOWEEN WHEN A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40 MPH
AND OUR FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE SEEN. THE COLD AIR
WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I INCREASED THE POP TO CONDITIONAL OVER THE WESTERN CWA AS MOST
LOCATIONS WERE AND STILL ARE GETTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL POCKET OF COLD AIR MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND END THE
PRECIPITATION. WARM ADVECTION AT LOW TO MID LEVELS SETS IN BY
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL HELP END WHATEVER PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY
MID EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE COLD BLAST ON HALLOWEEN DAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS. INTENSE PV
ANOMALY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE LOWER GRTLKS REGION ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT
GOING WITH A PARTICULARLY STRONG SFC LOW. REGARDLESS... THE WINDS
CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOWER GRTLKS RGN SFC LOW AND THE SFC HIGH OVER
MINNESOTA.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND
FALLING TREE LIMBS ARE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS THE SNOW POTENTIAL ON HALLOWEEN... THE DGZ LOOKS PRETTY
HIGH ABOVE 7K FT. ALSO THE NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ABRUPT DRYING IN SW MI. HAVE KEPT A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST BUT AM LEANING TOWARD MOSTLY
RAIN BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 40. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF U.S. 10 WHERE SNOW MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT AND HAVE A CHANCE OF STICKING TO THE GRASS.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -3C WILL
LEAD TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. IT
WILL BE BREEZY ALTHOUGH NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HALLOWEEN STORM MOVES AWAY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWN WIND FROM
THE POINTS ON THE WESTERN CWA...AND A FEW SHSN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
DOWNWIND FROM LAKE HURON. 30KT NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY
BLOW SOME SHSN INLAND. WE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE NE CWA FOR
THAT POSSIBILITY.

WE/LL SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER
MICHIGAN BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY. THE SYSTEM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WON/T BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SYSTEM THIS
FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SUFFICE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AFTER WHICH A
WARMING TREND WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

CEILINGS AROUND 3000FT ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH A
VARIANCE BOTH ABOVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND BELOW INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FIRST FOUR HOURS AS THE
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY. OVERNIGHT...FELT THAT MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH VFR
INLAND.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE GENERATED CLOUDS
ALL THE WAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...THE QUESTION IS WILL THEY BE
ABOVE OR BELOW 3000FT. DECIDED TO GO MORE PESSIMISTICALLY TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND TIME OF DAY.
THE HOLES IN THE OVERCAST UPSTREAM THOUGH ARE A BIT CONCERNING.
FEEL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...SO NO REAL RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES. A
NORTHWEST WIND OF 8-16 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE SOMEWHAT UNCONVENTIONAL... WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING ALREADY FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES AND NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES SINCE BASIN AVG QPF
AMOUNTS OF ONLY UNDER A HALF OF AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 291752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
152 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING ACTIVITY DESPITE CONTINUED
DECENT OVER LAKE INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDING
CLOSED UPPER LOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY. COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ALREADY
WELL EAST OF THE REGION OF COURSE. BUT TRAILING SFC TROUGH AXIS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SHARPLY NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH PULLING DOWN CORE OF COLDEST
AIR. SMALLER SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ALSO NOTED SWINGING EASTWARD OUT
OF GREEN BAY AND WE/VE ALREADY SEEN AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (COMBINED WITH STEEPER LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION). MEANWHILE...
ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS NOW SWINGING BACK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ALTHOUGH FORCING HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP DIMINISHING AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THIS MORNING...SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING TURNING WINDS NW AND PULLING COLDEST AIR INTO THE
REGION...H8 TEMPS FALLING OFF TO -3C TO -5C ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH SE COUNTIES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY MAY REACH THE UPPER
40S WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SUN LATER TODAY.
PRECIP-WISE...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF QG-UPWARD FORCING. BUT THE
MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES. WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS TO TAKE OFF THIS MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW-MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT  AS UPSTREAM SFC
RIDGE EASES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS
AND BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS START
TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MINOR LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH.
QUESTION IS...P-TYPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
KEEP FREEZING LEVELS JUST ABOVE 2K FEET MSL SUGGESTING JUST RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOWER FREEZING LEVELS TONIGHT IN EASTERN
UPPER...DOWN AROUND 1600 FEET OR SO SUGGESTS SNOW OR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...LOOK OUT BELOW! HERE COMES THE COLD AIR...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BURST OF
SNOW MANY AREAS HALLOWEEN MORNING. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: WELL...IT HAD TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT
THIS FALL...AND LOVE IT OR HATE IT...THAT TIME IS NOW. CURRENT
ANALYSIS PLACES A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
A RATHER POTENT 150 KNOT MID LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE
AND HELPING AMPLIFY THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. MEANWHILE MEAN TROUGHING OF COURSE RESIDES FROM HUDSON BAY
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES TRANSITING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES/WESTERN NUNAVUT INTO THE BACK SIDE OF SAID TROUGH.
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL RAPIDLY HELP BUILD RIDGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...
EFFECTIVELY OPENING THE DOOR FOR RAPID SOUTHWARD RE-AMPLIFICATION OF
TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FRIDAY MORNING USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. THAT PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONGER JET ENERGY
HELPS PUNT GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING INLAND...DISLODGING THE TROUGH
EASTWARD AND ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HEAD
EAST...LIKELY TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

LET`S LOOK AT THE DETAILS:

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: HERE COMES THE FUN WEATHER! LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
TO DOMINATE WITH DRY WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
QUICKLY APPROACHING WILL BE QUITE THE SHARP UPPER WAVE (ALREADY
CLEARLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES) DROPPING TOWARD THE
WESTERN LAKES. BACKING FLOW INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TIGHTEN AN
AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE U.P. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALL WHILE MOISTURE DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE REMAIN SOME MINOR GUIDANCE
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS VERY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HELPED ALONG BY QUITE THE
STRONG SHOT OF UPWARD FORCING/DYNAMICS ARRIVING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH.

FROM A PRECIP TYPE STANDPOINT...MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF AS
LIQUID WITH A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FREEZING LEVELS UP ABOVE
2KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 09-13Z
STRONGLY ARGUES FOR MANY SPOTS EXPERIENCING A QUICK TURNOVER AS
FREEZING LEVELS CRASH BELOW 1KFT (NEAR THE SURFACE EASTERN UPPER AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS). THE KEY OF COURSE WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP IS LEFT BY THIS POINT...BUT REALLY GETTING THE FEELING THAT
AT LEAST A BURST OF SNOW IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS FOR A
TIME THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO A GOOD
BET WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -10C OR COLDER WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. STRONG DRYING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ARGUES FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DESPITE GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF DRY
WEATHER...HAVE A SNEAKY SUSPICION WE WILL BE DEALING WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN SUCH A SHOT OF DYNAMICS AND COOLING LOW LEVELS...SOME
ACCUMULATION CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY INTO EASTERN
UPPER AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT ANY HEAVIEST BURSTS
COULD OF COURSE LAY DOWN A QUICK COATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. BASED
ON TRENDS OF A STRONGER SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FORCING...
HAVE TO WONDER IF WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE HIGH
SPOTS AND WILL START THE TREND OF BEEFING UP ACCUMULATION...IN LINE
WITH WPC EXPECTATIONS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...DESPITE WARMER
GROUND TEMPS. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 35
KNOTS SUPPORTING SOME PRETTY HEFTY GUSTS AS DOWNWARD TRANSPORT IN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR. ALL IN ALL...THIS HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY EVENT TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL TROUBLES PROVIDED
SNOW PANS OUT AS EXPECTED...AS GIVEN HEAVY RATES...A SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON ROADS ISN`T TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: DRYING OUT BUT STAYING CHILLY AS DEEPER
UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY PULLS AWAY AS WE`RE LEFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WHILE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
SAID LOW LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH PLENTY COLD LOW LEVELS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN AT THE COAST?)
CLOSER TO THE LAKE HURON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THAT THREAT
ENDING INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOME LIGHT/ANTICYCLONIC AND WE
LOSE THE BEST INSTABILITY. CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE PESKY AT TIMES
(ESPECIALLY SATURDAY) AND LIMITED MIXING MANDATES TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...SETTING UP A CHILLY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: BETTER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
GET INTO GEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK OUT AHEAD OF ADDITIONAL UPPER
TROUGHING WORKING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WHILE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THAT WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE END RESULT SHOULD BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SOMETIME LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH OF COURSE A PUSH OF THICKER CLOUDS AS SAID WARM
ADVECTION CRANKS UP AS WELL. THE THERMAL REGIME APPEARS IT WILL
MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY TO MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH OVERALL TEMPS MAY WELL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY
SIDE PENDING THE TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN MOISTURE IS STRIPPING OUT AT THE MOMENT AS
STORM SYSTEM RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL MARGINAL LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING POSSIBLY LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS. DRIER AIR THEN LOOKS TO ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING YIELDING A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH TEMPORARY IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY AT TVC AND MBL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TODAY THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY...ABATING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
RAPIDLY SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY ON
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. DEEP MIXING OF QUITE STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY COLD AIR WORKING OVER THE WATERS SUGGESTS GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND PERHAPS ON LAKE HURON
AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KMQT 291750
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
150 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE HAS SHOWN GRADUAL WARMING CLOUD TOPS
OVERNIGHT AS STRONGEST FORCING RIDES CLOSER TO 991MB SFC LOW VCNTY OF
JAMES BAY. COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OF THAT LOW AND IS COMING
ASHORE TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE AT 0830Z. 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED
MOIST PROFILE TO H6 THOUGH LAPSE RATES WERE NOT AS STEEP AS NAM/GFS
INITIALIZED. H85 TEMPS FALL TO -5C BY MID MORNING AND WILL STAY
STEADY OR COOL SLIGHTLY THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE SEEN A
SMATTERING OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SNOW OVER
WESTERN CWA PER AVAILABLE WEBCAMS. WAKEFIELD MDOT CAM HAS SHOWN SNOW
IN THE AIR MOST OF EARLY MORNING HOURS. CYCLONIC NW FLOW IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPS AROUND -4C IS
LIKELY LEADING TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR WESTERN CWA AS DELTA T/S ARE
AROUND 10C /8C IS NEEDED FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT GIVEN ADEQUATE LARGER
SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING/.

EXPECT THIS SETUP TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE THROUGH THE MORNING IN
THE WEST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DECREASES /WARMING SEEN ON THE IR
SATELLITE/ AND THIS WILL LEAVE MOISTURE THROUGH H9-H85 AND TEMPS AT
4KFT INVERSION AROUND -5C. THIS WILL BE NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
PURE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES AS DELTA T/S STAY AROUND 10C. /TYPCIALLY
LIKE TO SEE DELTA T/S OF 13C OR HIGHER FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
LAKE EFFECT/. OVER CNTRL AND EAST...SIMILAR FATE WILL OCCUR TO THE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT REGIME BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL MID MORNING CNTRL
AND MORE IN THE AFTN FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WBZERO HEIGHTS 500-1000 FT
AGL RESULT IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW...BUT IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY SNOW
OVER FAR WEST WITH LOWER WBZERO HEIGHTS. KEPT POPS HIGH OVR NCNTRL
IN THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NW WINDS
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE...INCLUDING MUNISING/SENEY/GRAND
MARAIS AND NEWBERRY. SINCE PRECIP RATES WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN UPPER 30S...NO REAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY. CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS
UPR 30S WEST/NORTHWEST/NCNTRL AND WELL INTO THE 40S SCNTRL WHERE
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN.

SMALL POPS FOR LINGERING LAKE EFFECT NEAR LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE BECOMING LIGHT AND THERE IS MORE DRYING BENEATH
A LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DECK THAT WILL BE THINNING OVER TIME. LATE TONIGHT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT
OF MID-UPR LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIFT IN THAT MOIST LAYER BUT ONLY
SHALLOW DRY LOW-LEVELS BLO H9...WHICH SHOULD BE QUICKLY OVERCOME
SINCE THERE IS NO PERSISTENT FEED OF DRY AIR ADVECTION. RAMPED UP
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AFT 09Z IN THE FAR WEST...WITH LIKELY POPS
ARRIVING AROUND DAYBREAK. MOST OF SOUNDING IS BLO 0C AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN LOW-LEVELS IS MEAGER...SO PROBABLY MOSTLY SNOW FOR
PTYPE EXCEPT IN LOWEST ELEVATIONS WHERE FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

NAM SHOWS 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE 12Z TUE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON TUE AND BOTH MOVE OUT ON FRI. LAKE
EFFECT PCPN WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN AND SNOW. WITH THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVING...BUMPED UP THE SNOW RATIOS AND BECAUSE OF THIS...STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THU AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY EVENING RANGE
FROM AROUND 0.5 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN CWA UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE HURON
MOUNTAINS WHICH IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE COLD AIR COMING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION. GFS AND NAM ARE
SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -10C TO -12C THU NIGHT AND
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 6C TO 8C...THAT IS
ENOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AND SNOW. DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
12Z SAT WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN. A 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z MON AND THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. FORECAST WILL START OUT DRY SAT INTO SUNDAY
AND THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MON INTO TUE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL START A WARMING TREND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC AND A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE CONVECTIVE LOOK OF THE
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DO HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING TO CLEARING
OF THE CLOUDS AROUND/AFTER SUNSET BEFORE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP KCMX/KIWD AT
MVFR BUT DID TREND KSAW UP TO VFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DUE TO THE
BACKING WINDS AIDING A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE...AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THAT PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KCMX...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 613 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH
STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY. COULD BE A FEW GALE GUSTS TO 35 KTS OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL USHER IN STRONG N-NE GALES OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR INTO MUCH OF
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LAST TO DIMINISH OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. A GALE
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH LESS
THAN GALES BY FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KDTX 291731
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
131 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXPECTING BROKEN CEILINGS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH UP
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVERNIGHT WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND CLOUDS TO THIN SLIGHTLY AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE DRY AIR FILTERING
IN TONIGHT...WILL STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUD DECK TO
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT
  BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 5000 FT THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT YESTERDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH TURNS 850 MB WINDS FROM A
WESTERLY TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...FURTHER DROPPING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL START OUT AS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...DEPENDING ON LOCATION AS
THERE ARE CURRENTLY SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. SKIES SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST LATER THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR
ALOFT...LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW CREATE
CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR A PRETTY SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS TO
FORM. THE CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
SEVERELY LIMIT THE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ONLY TOP
OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER A COMPLETE CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED AS 850 MB
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT...THIS COMBINED WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
CAUSE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

STRONG POLAR PV ANOMALY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES/NUNAVUT TODAY...AND DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...DELIVERING THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE FALL SEASON TO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. STILL NEED TO TO FINE TUNE EXACT TRACK OF
DEVELOPING 500 MB LOW CENTER WHICH WILL DICTATE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT OF
PRECIPITATION VS MESOSCALE LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE HURON. A LOOKED AT
THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS DOES
NOT SHOW ANYTHING TERRIBLY UNUSUAL (-1.5)/NON-RECORD BREAKING...AND
THUS MAKING THIS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST IN DETERMINING WHAT IF
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR. NEGATIVES FOR THE EVENT INCLUDE
THE UNFAVORABLE AFTERNOON TIMING...WARM MARINE LAYER/WATERS OF LAKE
HURON (LOWER 50S)...AND WARM GROUND (SOIL TEMPS 45-50). WILL BE
TRUSTING THE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE PROFILES OF THE 00Z
NAM/EURO/CANADIAN...WHICH OBVIOUSLY ARE SUBJECT TO BE IN
ERROR/REVISED. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH EURO HAS
THE BEST SUPPORT FOR SNOW AS SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 23 BY 00Z SATURDAY. EVEN DURING THE
EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS OF LAKE HURON LOOK TO KEEP
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ABOVE FREEZING. THROW IN THE FACT THE GFS IS
STRONGER/MILDER AND FARTHER WEST (ALTHOUGH PREFERENCE IS WITH
EURO/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS)...AND WILL SKEW THE FORECAST ON THE WET
SIDE FOR MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH STILL SOME SNOW MIXING IN/CHANGING
OVER TOWARD SUNSET...AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -8 TO -10 C
RANGE. BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY PERSISTS AND LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
BLEED IN UNDER NIGHT-TIME SETTING. EXTENSION OF THE IRISH
HILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

SATURDAY IS A TRICKY FORECAST AS WELL...AS WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...AND COLD AIRMASS (NEGATIVE MID TO UPPER
SINGLES AT 850 MB)...LIKELY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY DURING MORNING HOURS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY EASE AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT ON THURSDAY. THIS
LULL IN THE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY GUSTS TO GALES
APPEAR LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF LAKE HURON DURING THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 10 FEET OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED GALE WATCHES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION
WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES ALONG NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY WILL ASSURE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-462.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ463-464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....RK
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291524
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1124 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE HALLOWEEN WHEN A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40 MPH
AND OUR FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE SEEN. THE COLD AIR
WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I INCREASED THE POP TO CONDITIONAL OVER THE WESTERN CWA AS MOST
LOCATIONS WERE AND STILL ARE GETTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL POCKET OF COLD AIR MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND END THE
PRECIPITATION. WARM ADVECTION AT LOW TO MID LEVELS SETS IN BY
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL HELP END WHATEVER PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY
MID EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE COLD BLAST ON HALLOWEEN DAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS. INTENSE PV
ANOMALY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE LOWER GRTLKS REGION ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT
GOING WITH A PARTICULARLY STRONG SFC LOW. REGARDLESS... THE WINDS
CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOWER GRTLKS RGN SFC LOW AND THE SFC HIGH OVER
MINNESOTA.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND
FALLING TREE LIMBS ARE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS THE SNOW POTENTIAL ON HALLOWEEN... THE DGZ LOOKS PRETTY
HIGH ABOVE 7K FT. ALSO THE NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ABRUPT DRYING IN SW MI. HAVE KEPT A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST BUT AM LEANING TOWARD MOSTLY
RAIN BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 40. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF U.S. 10 WHERE SNOW MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT AND HAVE A CHANCE OF STICKING TO THE GRASS.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -3C WILL
LEAD TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. IT
WILL BE BREEZY ALTHOUGH NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HALLOWEEN STORM MOVES AWAY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWN WIND FROM
THE POINTS ON THE WESTERN CWA...AND A FEW SHSN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
DOWNWIND FROM LAKE HURON. 30KT NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY
BLOW SOME SHSN INLAND. WE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE NE CWA FOR
THAT POSSIBILITY.

WE/LL SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER
MICHIGAN BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY. THE SYSTEM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WON/T BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SYSTEM THIS
FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SUFFICE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AFTER WHICH A
WARMING TREND WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

CIGS OF 2500-3500 FT EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TOWARD 00Z. CIGS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY AOA
4000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE SOMEWHAT UNCONVENTIONAL... WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING ALREADY FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES AND NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES SINCE BASIN AVG QPF
AMOUNTS OF ONLY UNDER A HALF OF AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 291442
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1042 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING ACTIVITY DESPITE CONTINUED
DECENT OVER LAKE INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDING
CLOSED UPPER LOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY. COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ALREADY
WELL EAST OF THE REGION OF COURSE. BUT TRAILING SFC TROUGH AXIS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SHARPLY NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH PULLING DOWN CORE OF COLDEST
AIR. SMALLER SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ALSO NOTED SWINGING EASTWARD OUT
OF GREEN BAY AND WE/VE ALREADY SEEN AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (COMBINED WITH STEEPER LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION). MEANWHILE...
ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS NOW SWINGING BACK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ALTHOUGH FORCING HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP DIMINISHING AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THIS MORNING...SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING TURNING WINDS NW AND PULLING COLDEST AIR INTO THE
REGION...H8 TEMPS FALLING OFF TO -3C TO -5C ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH SE COUNTIES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY MAY REACH THE UPPER
40S WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SUN LATER TODAY.
PRECIP-WISE...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF QG-UPWARD FORCING. BUT THE
MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES. WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS TO TAKE OFF THIS MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW-MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT  AS UPSTREAM SFC
RIDGE EASES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS
AND BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS START
TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MINOR LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH.
QUESTION IS...P-TYPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
KEEP FREEZING LEVELS JUST ABOVE 2K FEET MSL SUGGESTING JUST RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOWER FREEZING LEVELS TONIGHT IN EASTERN
UPPER...DOWN AROUND 1600 FEET OR SO SUGGESTS SNOW OR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...LOOK OUT BELOW! HERE COMES THE COLD AIR...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BURST OF
SNOW MANY AREAS HALLOWEEN MORNING. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: WELL...IT HAD TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT
THIS FALL...AND LOVE IT OR HATE IT...THAT TIME IS NOW. CURRENT
ANALYSIS PLACES A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
A RATHER POTENT 150 KNOT MID LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE
AND HELPING AMPLIFY THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. MEANWHILE MEAN TROUGHING OF COURSE RESIDES FROM HUDSON BAY
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES TRANSITING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES/WESTERN NUNAVUT INTO THE BACK SIDE OF SAID TROUGH.
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL RAPIDLY HELP BUILD RIDGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...
EFFECTIVELY OPENING THE DOOR FOR RAPID SOUTHWARD RE-AMPLIFICATION OF
TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FRIDAY MORNING USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. THAT PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONGER JET ENERGY
HELPS PUNT GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING INLAND...DISLODGING THE TROUGH
EASTWARD AND ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HEAD
EAST...LIKELY TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

LET`S LOOK AT THE DETAILS:

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: HERE COMES THE FUN WEATHER! LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
TO DOMINATE WITH DRY WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
QUICKLY APPROACHING WILL BE QUITE THE SHARP UPPER WAVE (ALREADY
CLEARLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES) DROPPING TOWARD THE
WESTERN LAKES. BACKING FLOW INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TIGHTEN AN
AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE U.P. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALL WHILE MOISTURE DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE REMAIN SOME MINOR GUIDANCE
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS VERY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HELPED ALONG BY QUITE THE
STRONG SHOT OF UPWARD FORCING/DYNAMICS ARRIVING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH.

FROM A PRECIP TYPE STANDPOINT...MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF AS
LIQUID WITH A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FREEZING LEVELS UP ABOVE
2KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 09-13Z
STRONGLY ARGUES FOR MANY SPOTS EXPERIENCING A QUICK TURNOVER AS
FREEZING LEVELS CRASH BELOW 1KFT (NEAR THE SURFACE EASTERN UPPER AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS). THE KEY OF COURSE WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP IS LEFT BY THIS POINT...BUT REALLY GETTING THE FEELING THAT
AT LEAST A BURST OF SNOW IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS FOR A
TIME THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO A GOOD
BET WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -10C OR COLDER WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. STRONG DRYING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ARGUES FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DESPITE GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF DRY
WEATHER...HAVE A SNEAKY SUSPICION WE WILL BE DEALING WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN SUCH A SHOT OF DYNAMICS AND COOLING LOW LEVELS...SOME
ACCUMULATION CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY INTO EASTERN
UPPER AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT ANY HEAVIEST BURSTS
COULD OF COURSE LAY DOWN A QUICK COATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. BASED
ON TRENDS OF A STRONGER SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FORCING...
HAVE TO WONDER IF WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE HIGH
SPOTS AND WILL START THE TREND OF BEEFING UP ACCUMULATION...IN LINE
WITH WPC EXPECTATIONS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...DESPITE WARMER
GROUND TEMPS. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 35
KNOTS SUPPORTING SOME PRETTY HEFTY GUSTS AS DOWNWARD TRANSPORT IN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR. ALL IN ALL...THIS HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY EVENT TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL TROUBLES PROVIDED
SNOW PANS OUT AS EXPECTED...AS GIVEN HEAVY RATES...A SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON ROADS ISN`T TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: DRYING OUT BUT STAYING CHILLY AS DEEPER
UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY PULLS AWAY AS WE`RE LEFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WHILE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
SAID LOW LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH PLENTY COLD LOW LEVELS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN AT THE COAST?)
CLOSER TO THE LAKE HURON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THAT THREAT
ENDING INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOME LIGHT/ANTICYCLONIC AND WE
LOSE THE BEST INSTABILITY. CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE PESKY AT TIMES
(ESPECIALLY SATURDAY) AND LIMITED MIXING MANDATES TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...SETTING UP A CHILLY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: BETTER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
GET INTO GEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK OUT AHEAD OF ADDITIONAL UPPER
TROUGHING WORKING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WHILE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THAT WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE END RESULT SHOULD BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SOMETIME LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH OF COURSE A PUSH OF THICKER CLOUDS AS SAID WARM
ADVECTION CRANKS UP AS WELL. THE THERMAL REGIME APPEARS IT WILL
MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY TO MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH OVERALL TEMPS MAY WELL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY
SIDE PENDING THE TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
TODAY...AND PREVAILING MVFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL SITES ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL TEND TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE
SHOWERS...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE.

RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH FOR TONIGHT AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CIGS
TO VFR FOR MOST SPOTS. WINDS ALSO DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY...ABATING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
RAPIDLY SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY ON
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. DEEP MIXING OF QUITE STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY COLD AIR WORKING OVER THE WATERS SUGGESTS GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND PERHAPS ON LAKE HURON
AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE








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