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000
FXUS63 KAPX 050013
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
813 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME VERY...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS MANAGED TO POP DOWN IN THE SE
COUNTIES. BUT CERTAINLY NO SIGNS OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND CU FIELD
IS WELL INTO THE PROCESS OF FADING. SO...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST ENTIRELY ALTHOUGH I HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES/TWEAKS ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. BUT I MAY ADD IN SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING
UPWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE FAR SE /GLADWIN-IOSCO-ARENAC COUNTIES/ IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK H9-H8 THETA-E GRADIENT LAYING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF MICHIGAN. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
SLIDING INTO THE AREA LATER FROM CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN. WE MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND SFC DWPTS GRADUALLY CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. MIN TEMPS FAIRLY
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH EXPECTED. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS DECENT WAA COMMENCES ON
BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
H8 TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR +17C AND SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ERN UPPER AND THE LOW-
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CU. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A SMALL RISK FOR POP UP LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
INTERIOR NRN LOWER...WITH ~1300 J/KG MLCAPE (!?). HOWEVER...GIVEN
RESPECTABLE CAP JUST ABOVE 700 MB...DRY GOING FORECAST...AND LIMITED
CONDITIONAL COVERAGE...WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME - BUT CAN/T STRICTLY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO. WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT...IT/LL REMAIN WARM.
UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL DIP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. EXPECT
SOME CU TO FORM...ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF
SAID COLD FRONT. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR A DECENT SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL
TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN...PWAT/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES...FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 14KFT...AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT H8 LLJ
SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY/BRIEFLY BE IMPRESSIVE. AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT...H5 WINDS APPROACHING 35 KTS TOGETHER WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS /SEE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK/. ALL SAID...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY FRONT /AND THEREFORE PRECIP/ WILL PUSH E OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF /COVERAGE AND TIMING/
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM SE TO NW. CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP IN
POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL DAY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE WEEK RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. A LATE WEEK SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH IS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL
BE...LEADING TO THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR AREA...BUT GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO DRIFT OR REMAIN SOUTH AS THE DAYS GROW CLOSER
I EXPECT THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
COULD BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. A MAIN DRIVER OF THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING FROM AN H5 LOW OFF THE CA COAST...AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS
A GOOD DEAL OF DIVERGENCE IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS. POP
CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT FOR NOW...AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
DRY TO CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME
ARE A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF SOLUTIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE...PLACING BETTER INSTABILITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT STILL GIVING US SOME
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH
OUR RATHER THICK SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SOME FOG FORMATION IS A POSSIBILITY AT THE TERMINAL
SITES LATER TONIGHT...GIVEN SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING HIGHER THROUGH
THE DAY...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...ANY OVERNIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z. STRONGER PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMMENCES SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY MANIFEST
ITSELF AS A LOWER CLOUD LAYER PUSHING UP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCT CU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER 17Z WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET. WINDS WILL
INITIALLYINCREASE FROM THE S/SW SUNDAY MORNING. BUT LAKE BREEZES
WILL TEND TO TURN WINDS ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
ANTICIPATED FOR MIDWEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KEYSOR



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRR 042350
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AND
WARM FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM. CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO PULL OUT ALL SHOWER/STORM
MENTION ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE CWFA. A FEW SPRINKLES
DEVELOPED EARLIER...HOWEVER THEY ARE ALL DIMINISHING AS THE CU
FIELD DISSIPATES WITH TEMPS NOW COOLING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A FEW OF THESE CUMULUS TO GROW SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BECOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM.
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH ONE OR TWO
INVERSIONS TO LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

WE ARE THEN EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A DRY DEEP
LAYER AIR MASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 700-
500 MB WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST BY
MON...BUT THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. H850 TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS C WILL SUPPORT MID
80S ON SUN AND UPPER 80S ON MON FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WE WILL SEE A NICE 40-45 KT LLJ SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
MON HELPING TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE NOSE OF IT
HOWEVER IS UP IN CANADA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT REALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP THE CAUSE EITHER.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING FROPA...AND WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS IS THIN AND ELEVATED. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO.

THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS FRONT COULD INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE SE
SECTION OF THE CWFA IF IT ENDS UP SLOWING UP A BIT AND CAN TAP SOME
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY LOOK LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE NEXT REAL PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIM ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
EARLIER TIMING. THIS SUBTLE TROUGH IS WITHIN A SIMILARLY WEAK SUMMER-
LIKE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MODELS HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY
REPRESENTING AT THIS TIME RANGE. WOULD THEREFORE WANT TO SEE MORE
MODEL CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE ASSIGNING MUCH CERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(MID 70S) BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD
BRING SOME VISBYS IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE AFTER 06Z WITH EVEN
SOME IFR AT TIMES...MOSTLY LIKELY AT AZO...LAN OR JXN WHERE THERE
WAS SOME LIGHT FOG LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT THEN GO
SOUTHERLY AOB 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE UPDATED THE FCST TO ADD FOG FOR THIS EVENING RIGHT ON THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEBCAMS ALONG THE SHORE INDICATE
FOG IS CREATING AN IMPACT TO BOATERS. WE DO NOT FEEL IT IS DENSE
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 042350
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AND
WARM FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM. CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO PULL OUT ALL SHOWER/STORM
MENTION ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE CWFA. A FEW SPRINKLES
DEVELOPED EARLIER...HOWEVER THEY ARE ALL DIMINISHING AS THE CU
FIELD DISSIPATES WITH TEMPS NOW COOLING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A FEW OF THESE CUMULUS TO GROW SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BECOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM.
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH ONE OR TWO
INVERSIONS TO LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

WE ARE THEN EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A DRY DEEP
LAYER AIR MASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 700-
500 MB WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST BY
MON...BUT THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. H850 TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS C WILL SUPPORT MID
80S ON SUN AND UPPER 80S ON MON FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WE WILL SEE A NICE 40-45 KT LLJ SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
MON HELPING TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE NOSE OF IT
HOWEVER IS UP IN CANADA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT REALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP THE CAUSE EITHER.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING FROPA...AND WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS IS THIN AND ELEVATED. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO.

THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS FRONT COULD INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE SE
SECTION OF THE CWFA IF IT ENDS UP SLOWING UP A BIT AND CAN TAP SOME
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY LOOK LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE NEXT REAL PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIM ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
EARLIER TIMING. THIS SUBTLE TROUGH IS WITHIN A SIMILARLY WEAK SUMMER-
LIKE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MODELS HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY
REPRESENTING AT THIS TIME RANGE. WOULD THEREFORE WANT TO SEE MORE
MODEL CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE ASSIGNING MUCH CERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(MID 70S) BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD
BRING SOME VISBYS IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE AFTER 06Z WITH EVEN
SOME IFR AT TIMES...MOSTLY LIKELY AT AZO...LAN OR JXN WHERE THERE
WAS SOME LIGHT FOG LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT THEN GO
SOUTHERLY AOB 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE UPDATED THE FCST TO ADD FOG FOR THIS EVENING RIGHT ON THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEBCAMS ALONG THE SHORE INDICATE
FOG IS CREATING AN IMPACT TO BOATERS. WE DO NOT FEEL IT IS DENSE
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 042350
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AND
WARM FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM. CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO PULL OUT ALL SHOWER/STORM
MENTION ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE CWFA. A FEW SPRINKLES
DEVELOPED EARLIER...HOWEVER THEY ARE ALL DIMINISHING AS THE CU
FIELD DISSIPATES WITH TEMPS NOW COOLING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A FEW OF THESE CUMULUS TO GROW SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BECOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM.
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH ONE OR TWO
INVERSIONS TO LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

WE ARE THEN EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A DRY DEEP
LAYER AIR MASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 700-
500 MB WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST BY
MON...BUT THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. H850 TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS C WILL SUPPORT MID
80S ON SUN AND UPPER 80S ON MON FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WE WILL SEE A NICE 40-45 KT LLJ SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
MON HELPING TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE NOSE OF IT
HOWEVER IS UP IN CANADA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT REALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP THE CAUSE EITHER.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING FROPA...AND WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS IS THIN AND ELEVATED. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO.

THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS FRONT COULD INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE SE
SECTION OF THE CWFA IF IT ENDS UP SLOWING UP A BIT AND CAN TAP SOME
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY LOOK LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE NEXT REAL PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIM ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
EARLIER TIMING. THIS SUBTLE TROUGH IS WITHIN A SIMILARLY WEAK SUMMER-
LIKE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MODELS HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY
REPRESENTING AT THIS TIME RANGE. WOULD THEREFORE WANT TO SEE MORE
MODEL CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE ASSIGNING MUCH CERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(MID 70S) BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD
BRING SOME VISBYS IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE AFTER 06Z WITH EVEN
SOME IFR AT TIMES...MOSTLY LIKELY AT AZO...LAN OR JXN WHERE THERE
WAS SOME LIGHT FOG LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT THEN GO
SOUTHERLY AOB 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE UPDATED THE FCST TO ADD FOG FOR THIS EVENING RIGHT ON THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEBCAMS ALONG THE SHORE INDICATE
FOG IS CREATING AN IMPACT TO BOATERS. WE DO NOT FEEL IT IS DENSE
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 042350
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AND
WARM FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM. CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO PULL OUT ALL SHOWER/STORM
MENTION ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE CWFA. A FEW SPRINKLES
DEVELOPED EARLIER...HOWEVER THEY ARE ALL DIMINISHING AS THE CU
FIELD DISSIPATES WITH TEMPS NOW COOLING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A FEW OF THESE CUMULUS TO GROW SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BECOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM.
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH ONE OR TWO
INVERSIONS TO LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

WE ARE THEN EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A DRY DEEP
LAYER AIR MASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 700-
500 MB WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST BY
MON...BUT THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. H850 TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS C WILL SUPPORT MID
80S ON SUN AND UPPER 80S ON MON FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WE WILL SEE A NICE 40-45 KT LLJ SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
MON HELPING TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE NOSE OF IT
HOWEVER IS UP IN CANADA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT REALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP THE CAUSE EITHER.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING FROPA...AND WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS IS THIN AND ELEVATED. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO.

THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS FRONT COULD INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE SE
SECTION OF THE CWFA IF IT ENDS UP SLOWING UP A BIT AND CAN TAP SOME
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY LOOK LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE NEXT REAL PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIM ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
EARLIER TIMING. THIS SUBTLE TROUGH IS WITHIN A SIMILARLY WEAK SUMMER-
LIKE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MODELS HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY
REPRESENTING AT THIS TIME RANGE. WOULD THEREFORE WANT TO SEE MORE
MODEL CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE ASSIGNING MUCH CERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(MID 70S) BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD
BRING SOME VISBYS IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE AFTER 06Z WITH EVEN
SOME IFR AT TIMES...MOSTLY LIKELY AT AZO...LAN OR JXN WHERE THERE
WAS SOME LIGHT FOG LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT THEN GO
SOUTHERLY AOB 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE UPDATED THE FCST TO ADD FOG FOR THIS EVENING RIGHT ON THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEBCAMS ALONG THE SHORE INDICATE
FOG IS CREATING AN IMPACT TO BOATERS. WE DO NOT FEEL IT IS DENSE
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 042350
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AND
WARM FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM. CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO PULL OUT ALL SHOWER/STORM
MENTION ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE CWFA. A FEW SPRINKLES
DEVELOPED EARLIER...HOWEVER THEY ARE ALL DIMINISHING AS THE CU
FIELD DISSIPATES WITH TEMPS NOW COOLING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A FEW OF THESE CUMULUS TO GROW SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BECOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM.
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH ONE OR TWO
INVERSIONS TO LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

WE ARE THEN EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A DRY DEEP
LAYER AIR MASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 700-
500 MB WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST BY
MON...BUT THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. H850 TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS C WILL SUPPORT MID
80S ON SUN AND UPPER 80S ON MON FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WE WILL SEE A NICE 40-45 KT LLJ SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
MON HELPING TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE NOSE OF IT
HOWEVER IS UP IN CANADA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT REALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP THE CAUSE EITHER.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING FROPA...AND WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS IS THIN AND ELEVATED. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO.

THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS FRONT COULD INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE SE
SECTION OF THE CWFA IF IT ENDS UP SLOWING UP A BIT AND CAN TAP SOME
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY LOOK LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE NEXT REAL PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIM ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
EARLIER TIMING. THIS SUBTLE TROUGH IS WITHIN A SIMILARLY WEAK SUMMER-
LIKE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MODELS HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY
REPRESENTING AT THIS TIME RANGE. WOULD THEREFORE WANT TO SEE MORE
MODEL CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE ASSIGNING MUCH CERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(MID 70S) BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD
BRING SOME VISBYS IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE AFTER 06Z WITH EVEN
SOME IFR AT TIMES...MOSTLY LIKELY AT AZO...LAN OR JXN WHERE THERE
WAS SOME LIGHT FOG LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT THEN GO
SOUTHERLY AOB 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE UPDATED THE FCST TO ADD FOG FOR THIS EVENING RIGHT ON THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEBCAMS ALONG THE SHORE INDICATE
FOG IS CREATING AN IMPACT TO BOATERS. WE DO NOT FEEL IT IS DENSE
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMQT 042336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 042336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 042336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 042336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 042336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 042336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 042317
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
717 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE MBS AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE WEAK FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO WASH OUT. COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST CONDITIONAL ON ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...THE
DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME
REESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION AND LEAD TO VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG
COULD OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE. TIMING AND DURATION POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AXIS OF LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TROUGHING NOW EXITING TO THE EAST...
SE MICHIGAN AT THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
INBOUND UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL FRONT CURRENTLY EASING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MI WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
REBOUND...THIS BOUNDARY STRUGGLING TO REACH MUCH BEYOND THE TRI-
CITIES/NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE WASHING OUT THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF
LOCALIZED FORCED ASCENT...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTIONS...WILL MAINTAIN A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING
ASSUMING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY. 12Z NAM AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
REMAIN OVERZEALOUS WITH THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT
/DEWPOINT OF MID 60S/ RELATIVE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...YIELDING
A MORE UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CORRESPONDING
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. VARIOUS HI RES MODEL OUTPUT DO
LEND SUPPORT TOWARD SEEING A COUPLE CELLS EMERGE AS PEAK HEATING
WANES...WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITHIN THE COLUMN. SBCAPE IN
THE BALLPARK OF 600-800 J/KG PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY WITH NO TANGIBLE FORCING WILL
SUSTAIN A TRANQUIL 4TH OF JULY EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY. STEADY
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE THERMAL PROFILE. LOWS
RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S METRO DETROIT.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING CONTINUED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. LACK
OF FORCING AND A STRONG 700MB INVERSION WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES
AND SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST WHILE MIXING TO 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
12C SUPPORTS HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOW 80S. EXPECTATION FOR FULL SUN
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OVERACHIEVING TEMPS...NO CHANGE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST OF AROUND 85 DEGREES. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES. INCREASING SSW GRADIENT WILL ADVECT EVEN WARMER
AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO RISE TO
AROUND 17C. MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM, OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ. THUS, ANOTHER
DRY DAY ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S...PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY. NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT,
SO FURTHER BUMPED UP MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS TO 70 DEGREES.

DECENT COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. THERE STILL SEEMS TO
BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN MODELS. NAM BEING A BIT
FASTER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING
SAID...TUESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PRESENT CONSENSUS HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING UP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STAY ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF OOMPH WITH BOTH
CAPE AND SHOWALTER REGISTERING LOW POTENTIAL AND NEWER MODEL RUNS
TRENDING THE JET DIVE TO OUR WEST. STILL TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
DEFINITIVE CALLS. FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECENT TEMP FALL. MID TO UPPER 80 DEGREE DAYS HELD
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND WILL DWINDLE BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

MARINE...

TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE STABILITY WILL HOLD GUSTS
BELOW 20 KNOTS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD
THE W-NW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....JC/DE
MARINE.......JC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 042246
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AND
WARM FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM. CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO PULL OUT ALL SHOWER/STORM
MENTION ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE CWFA. A FEW SPRINKLES
DEVELOPED EARLIER...HOWEVER THEY ARE ALL DIMINISHING AS THE CU
FIELD DISSIPATES WITH TEMPS NOW COOLING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A FEW OF THESE CUMULUS TO GROW SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BECOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM.
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH ONE OR TWO
INVERSIONS TO LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

WE ARE THEN EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A DRY DEEP
LAYER AIR MASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 700-
500 MB WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST BY
MON...BUT THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. H850 TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS C WILL SUPPORT MID
80S ON SUN AND UPPER 80S ON MON FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WE WILL SEE A NICE 40-45 KT LLJ SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
MON HELPING TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE NOSE OF IT
HOWEVER IS UP IN CANADA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT REALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP THE CAUSE EITHER.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING FROPA...AND WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS IS THIN AND ELEVATED. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO.

THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS FRONT COULD INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE SE
SECTION OF THE CWFA IF IT ENDS UP SLOWING UP A BIT AND CAN TAP SOME
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY LOOK LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE NEXT REAL PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIM ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
EARLIER TIMING. THIS SUBTLE TROUGH IS WITHIN A SIMILARLY WEAK SUMMER-
LIKE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MODELS HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY
REPRESENTING AT THIS TIME RANGE. WOULD THEREFORE WANT TO SEE MORE
MODEL CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE ASSIGNING MUCH CERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(MID 70S) BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE GRR AND LAN
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS NOTED ALREADY...WE EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR VSBY AT MOST TERMINALS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DISSIPATION SHOULD BE RAPID...MOST LIKELY
AROUND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE UPDATED THE FCST TO ADD FOG FOR THIS EVENING RIGHT ON THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEBCAMS ALONG THE SHORE INDICATE
FOG IS CREATING AN IMPACT TO BOATERS. WE DO NOT FEEL IT IS DENSE
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KGRR 042246
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AND
WARM FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM. CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO PULL OUT ALL SHOWER/STORM
MENTION ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE CWFA. A FEW SPRINKLES
DEVELOPED EARLIER...HOWEVER THEY ARE ALL DIMINISHING AS THE CU
FIELD DISSIPATES WITH TEMPS NOW COOLING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A FEW OF THESE CUMULUS TO GROW SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BECOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM.
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH ONE OR TWO
INVERSIONS TO LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

WE ARE THEN EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A DRY DEEP
LAYER AIR MASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 700-
500 MB WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST BY
MON...BUT THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. H850 TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS C WILL SUPPORT MID
80S ON SUN AND UPPER 80S ON MON FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WE WILL SEE A NICE 40-45 KT LLJ SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
MON HELPING TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE NOSE OF IT
HOWEVER IS UP IN CANADA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT REALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP THE CAUSE EITHER.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING FROPA...AND WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS IS THIN AND ELEVATED. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO.

THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS FRONT COULD INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE SE
SECTION OF THE CWFA IF IT ENDS UP SLOWING UP A BIT AND CAN TAP SOME
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY LOOK LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE NEXT REAL PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIM ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
EARLIER TIMING. THIS SUBTLE TROUGH IS WITHIN A SIMILARLY WEAK SUMMER-
LIKE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MODELS HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY
REPRESENTING AT THIS TIME RANGE. WOULD THEREFORE WANT TO SEE MORE
MODEL CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE ASSIGNING MUCH CERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(MID 70S) BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE GRR AND LAN
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS NOTED ALREADY...WE EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR VSBY AT MOST TERMINALS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DISSIPATION SHOULD BE RAPID...MOST LIKELY
AROUND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE UPDATED THE FCST TO ADD FOG FOR THIS EVENING RIGHT ON THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEBCAMS ALONG THE SHORE INDICATE
FOG IS CREATING AN IMPACT TO BOATERS. WE DO NOT FEEL IT IS DENSE
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KDTX 041949
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AXIS OF LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TROUGHING NOW EXITING TO THE EAST...
SE MICHIGAN AT THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
INBOUND UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL FRONT CURRENTLY EASING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MI WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
REBOUND...THIS BOUNDARY STRUGGLING TO REACH MUCH BEYOND THE TRI-
CITIES/NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE WASHING OUT THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF
LOCALIZED FORCED ASCENT...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTIONS...WILL MAINTAIN A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING
ASSUMING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY. 12Z NAM AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
REMAIN OVERZEALOUS WITH THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT
/DEWPOINT OF MID 60S/ RELATIVE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...YIELDING
A MORE UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CORRESPONDING
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. VARIOUS HI RES MODEL OUTPUT DO
LEND SUPPORT TOWARD SEEING A COUPLE CELLS EMERGE AS PEAK HEATING
WANES...WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITHIN THE COLUMN. SBCAPE IN
THE BALLPARK OF 600-800 J/KG PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY WITH NO TANGIBLE FORCING WILL
SUSTAIN A TRANQUIL 4TH OF JULY EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY. STEADY
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE THERMAL PROFILE. LOWS
RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S METRO DETROIT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING CONTINUED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. LACK
OF FORCING AND A STRONG 700MB INVERSION WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES
AND SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST WHILE MIXING TO 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
12C SUPPORTS HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOW 80S. EXPECTATION FOR FULL SUN
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OVERACHIEVING TEMPS...NO CHANGE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST OF AROUND 85 DEGREES. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES. INCREASING SSW GRADIENT WILL ADVECT EVEN WARMER
AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO RISE TO
AROUND 17C. MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM, OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ. THUS, ANOTHER
DRY DAY ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S...PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY. NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT,
SO FURTHER BUMPED UP MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS TO 70 DEGREES.

DECENT COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. THERE STILL SEEMS TO
BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN MODELS. NAM BEING A BIT
FASTER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING
SAID...TUESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PRESENT CONSENSUS HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING UP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STAY ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF OOMPH WITH BOTH
CAPE AND SHOWALTER REGISTERING LOW POTENTIAL AND NEWER MODEL RUNS
TRENDING THE JET DIVE TO OUR WEST. STILL TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
DEFINITIVE CALLS. FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECENT TEMP FALL. MID TO UPPER 80 DEGREE DAYS HELD
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND WILL DWINDLE BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE STABILITY WILL HOLD GUSTS
BELOW 20 KNOTS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD
THE W-NW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 124 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LATE DAY DIURNAL CU WILL FADE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.  THERE REMAINS A LOWER PROBABILITY
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT MBS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....JC/DE
MARINE.......JC
AVIATION.....MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 041949
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AXIS OF LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TROUGHING NOW EXITING TO THE EAST...
SE MICHIGAN AT THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
INBOUND UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL FRONT CURRENTLY EASING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MI WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
REBOUND...THIS BOUNDARY STRUGGLING TO REACH MUCH BEYOND THE TRI-
CITIES/NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE WASHING OUT THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF
LOCALIZED FORCED ASCENT...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTIONS...WILL MAINTAIN A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING
ASSUMING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY. 12Z NAM AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
REMAIN OVERZEALOUS WITH THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT
/DEWPOINT OF MID 60S/ RELATIVE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...YIELDING
A MORE UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CORRESPONDING
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. VARIOUS HI RES MODEL OUTPUT DO
LEND SUPPORT TOWARD SEEING A COUPLE CELLS EMERGE AS PEAK HEATING
WANES...WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITHIN THE COLUMN. SBCAPE IN
THE BALLPARK OF 600-800 J/KG PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY WITH NO TANGIBLE FORCING WILL
SUSTAIN A TRANQUIL 4TH OF JULY EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY. STEADY
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE THERMAL PROFILE. LOWS
RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S METRO DETROIT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING CONTINUED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. LACK
OF FORCING AND A STRONG 700MB INVERSION WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES
AND SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST WHILE MIXING TO 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
12C SUPPORTS HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOW 80S. EXPECTATION FOR FULL SUN
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OVERACHIEVING TEMPS...NO CHANGE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST OF AROUND 85 DEGREES. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES. INCREASING SSW GRADIENT WILL ADVECT EVEN WARMER
AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO RISE TO
AROUND 17C. MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM, OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ. THUS, ANOTHER
DRY DAY ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S...PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY. NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT,
SO FURTHER BUMPED UP MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS TO 70 DEGREES.

DECENT COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. THERE STILL SEEMS TO
BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN MODELS. NAM BEING A BIT
FASTER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING
SAID...TUESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PRESENT CONSENSUS HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING UP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STAY ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF OOMPH WITH BOTH
CAPE AND SHOWALTER REGISTERING LOW POTENTIAL AND NEWER MODEL RUNS
TRENDING THE JET DIVE TO OUR WEST. STILL TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
DEFINITIVE CALLS. FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECENT TEMP FALL. MID TO UPPER 80 DEGREE DAYS HELD
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND WILL DWINDLE BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE STABILITY WILL HOLD GUSTS
BELOW 20 KNOTS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD
THE W-NW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 124 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LATE DAY DIURNAL CU WILL FADE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.  THERE REMAINS A LOWER PROBABILITY
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT MBS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....JC/DE
MARINE.......JC
AVIATION.....MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 041949
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AXIS OF LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TROUGHING NOW EXITING TO THE EAST...
SE MICHIGAN AT THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
INBOUND UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL FRONT CURRENTLY EASING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MI WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
REBOUND...THIS BOUNDARY STRUGGLING TO REACH MUCH BEYOND THE TRI-
CITIES/NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE WASHING OUT THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF
LOCALIZED FORCED ASCENT...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTIONS...WILL MAINTAIN A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING
ASSUMING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY. 12Z NAM AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
REMAIN OVERZEALOUS WITH THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT
/DEWPOINT OF MID 60S/ RELATIVE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...YIELDING
A MORE UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CORRESPONDING
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. VARIOUS HI RES MODEL OUTPUT DO
LEND SUPPORT TOWARD SEEING A COUPLE CELLS EMERGE AS PEAK HEATING
WANES...WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITHIN THE COLUMN. SBCAPE IN
THE BALLPARK OF 600-800 J/KG PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY WITH NO TANGIBLE FORCING WILL
SUSTAIN A TRANQUIL 4TH OF JULY EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY. STEADY
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE THERMAL PROFILE. LOWS
RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S METRO DETROIT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING CONTINUED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. LACK
OF FORCING AND A STRONG 700MB INVERSION WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES
AND SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST WHILE MIXING TO 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
12C SUPPORTS HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOW 80S. EXPECTATION FOR FULL SUN
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OVERACHIEVING TEMPS...NO CHANGE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST OF AROUND 85 DEGREES. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES. INCREASING SSW GRADIENT WILL ADVECT EVEN WARMER
AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO RISE TO
AROUND 17C. MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM, OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ. THUS, ANOTHER
DRY DAY ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S...PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY. NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT,
SO FURTHER BUMPED UP MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS TO 70 DEGREES.

DECENT COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. THERE STILL SEEMS TO
BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN MODELS. NAM BEING A BIT
FASTER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING
SAID...TUESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PRESENT CONSENSUS HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING UP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STAY ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF OOMPH WITH BOTH
CAPE AND SHOWALTER REGISTERING LOW POTENTIAL AND NEWER MODEL RUNS
TRENDING THE JET DIVE TO OUR WEST. STILL TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
DEFINITIVE CALLS. FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECENT TEMP FALL. MID TO UPPER 80 DEGREE DAYS HELD
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND WILL DWINDLE BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE STABILITY WILL HOLD GUSTS
BELOW 20 KNOTS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD
THE W-NW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 124 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LATE DAY DIURNAL CU WILL FADE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.  THERE REMAINS A LOWER PROBABILITY
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT MBS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....JC/DE
MARINE.......JC
AVIATION.....MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 041949
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AXIS OF LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TROUGHING NOW EXITING TO THE EAST...
SE MICHIGAN AT THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
INBOUND UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL FRONT CURRENTLY EASING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MI WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
REBOUND...THIS BOUNDARY STRUGGLING TO REACH MUCH BEYOND THE TRI-
CITIES/NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE WASHING OUT THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF
LOCALIZED FORCED ASCENT...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTIONS...WILL MAINTAIN A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING
ASSUMING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY. 12Z NAM AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
REMAIN OVERZEALOUS WITH THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT
/DEWPOINT OF MID 60S/ RELATIVE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...YIELDING
A MORE UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CORRESPONDING
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. VARIOUS HI RES MODEL OUTPUT DO
LEND SUPPORT TOWARD SEEING A COUPLE CELLS EMERGE AS PEAK HEATING
WANES...WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITHIN THE COLUMN. SBCAPE IN
THE BALLPARK OF 600-800 J/KG PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY WITH NO TANGIBLE FORCING WILL
SUSTAIN A TRANQUIL 4TH OF JULY EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY. STEADY
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE THERMAL PROFILE. LOWS
RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S METRO DETROIT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING CONTINUED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. LACK
OF FORCING AND A STRONG 700MB INVERSION WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES
AND SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST WHILE MIXING TO 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
12C SUPPORTS HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOW 80S. EXPECTATION FOR FULL SUN
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OVERACHIEVING TEMPS...NO CHANGE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST OF AROUND 85 DEGREES. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES. INCREASING SSW GRADIENT WILL ADVECT EVEN WARMER
AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO RISE TO
AROUND 17C. MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM, OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ. THUS, ANOTHER
DRY DAY ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S...PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY. NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT,
SO FURTHER BUMPED UP MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS TO 70 DEGREES.

DECENT COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. THERE STILL SEEMS TO
BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN MODELS. NAM BEING A BIT
FASTER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING
SAID...TUESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PRESENT CONSENSUS HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING UP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STAY ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF OOMPH WITH BOTH
CAPE AND SHOWALTER REGISTERING LOW POTENTIAL AND NEWER MODEL RUNS
TRENDING THE JET DIVE TO OUR WEST. STILL TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
DEFINITIVE CALLS. FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECENT TEMP FALL. MID TO UPPER 80 DEGREE DAYS HELD
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND WILL DWINDLE BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE STABILITY WILL HOLD GUSTS
BELOW 20 KNOTS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD
THE W-NW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 124 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LATE DAY DIURNAL CU WILL FADE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.  THERE REMAINS A LOWER PROBABILITY
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT MBS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....JC/DE
MARINE.......JC
AVIATION.....MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 041949
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AXIS OF LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TROUGHING NOW EXITING TO THE EAST...
SE MICHIGAN AT THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
INBOUND UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL FRONT CURRENTLY EASING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MI WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
REBOUND...THIS BOUNDARY STRUGGLING TO REACH MUCH BEYOND THE TRI-
CITIES/NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE WASHING OUT THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF
LOCALIZED FORCED ASCENT...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTIONS...WILL MAINTAIN A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING
ASSUMING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY. 12Z NAM AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
REMAIN OVERZEALOUS WITH THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT
/DEWPOINT OF MID 60S/ RELATIVE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...YIELDING
A MORE UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CORRESPONDING
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. VARIOUS HI RES MODEL OUTPUT DO
LEND SUPPORT TOWARD SEEING A COUPLE CELLS EMERGE AS PEAK HEATING
WANES...WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITHIN THE COLUMN. SBCAPE IN
THE BALLPARK OF 600-800 J/KG PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY WITH NO TANGIBLE FORCING WILL
SUSTAIN A TRANQUIL 4TH OF JULY EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY. STEADY
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE THERMAL PROFILE. LOWS
RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S METRO DETROIT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING CONTINUED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. LACK
OF FORCING AND A STRONG 700MB INVERSION WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES
AND SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST WHILE MIXING TO 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
12C SUPPORTS HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOW 80S. EXPECTATION FOR FULL SUN
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OVERACHIEVING TEMPS...NO CHANGE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST OF AROUND 85 DEGREES. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES. INCREASING SSW GRADIENT WILL ADVECT EVEN WARMER
AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO RISE TO
AROUND 17C. MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM, OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ. THUS, ANOTHER
DRY DAY ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S...PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY. NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT,
SO FURTHER BUMPED UP MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS TO 70 DEGREES.

DECENT COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. THERE STILL SEEMS TO
BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN MODELS. NAM BEING A BIT
FASTER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING
SAID...TUESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PRESENT CONSENSUS HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING UP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STAY ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF OOMPH WITH BOTH
CAPE AND SHOWALTER REGISTERING LOW POTENTIAL AND NEWER MODEL RUNS
TRENDING THE JET DIVE TO OUR WEST. STILL TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
DEFINITIVE CALLS. FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECENT TEMP FALL. MID TO UPPER 80 DEGREE DAYS HELD
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND WILL DWINDLE BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO A
MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE STABILITY WILL HOLD GUSTS
BELOW 20 KNOTS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD
THE W-NW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 124 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LATE DAY DIURNAL CU WILL FADE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.  THERE REMAINS A LOWER PROBABILITY
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT MBS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....JC/DE
MARINE.......JC
AVIATION.....MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KMQT 041919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 041919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 041914
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AND
WARM FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM. CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A FEW OF THESE CUMULUS TO GROW SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BECOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM.
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH ONE OR TWO
INVERSIONS TO LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

WE ARE THEN EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A DRY DEEP
LAYER AIR MASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 700-
500 MB WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST BY
MON...BUT THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. H850 TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS C WILL SUPPORT MID
80S ON SUN AND UPPER 80S ON MON FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WE WILL SEE A NICE 40-45 KT LLJ SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
MON HELPING TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE NOSE OF IT
HOWEVER IS UP IN CANADA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT REALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP THE CAUSE EITHER.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING FROPA...AND WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS IS THIN AND ELEVATED. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO.

THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS FRONT COULD INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE SE
SECTION OF THE CWFA IF IT ENDS UP SLOWING UP A BIT AND CAN TAP SOME
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY LOOK LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE NEXT REAL PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIM ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
EARLIER TIMING. THIS SUBTLE TROUGH IS WITHIN A SIMILARLY WEAK SUMMER-
LIKE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MODELS HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY
REPRESENTING AT THIS TIME RANGE. WOULD THEREFORE WANT TO SEE MORE
MODEL CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE ASSIGNING MUCH CERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(MID 70S) BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE GRR AND LAN
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS NOTED ALREADY...WE EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR VSBY AT MOST TERMINALS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DISSIPATION SHOULD BE RAPID...MOST LIKELY
AROUND 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL ISSUES WITH
REGARDS TO THE WEATHER FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A
LIGHT GRADIENT OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS AND WAVES
UNDER 2 FEET. WATER TEMPS VARY FROM THE 40S NEAR GRAND HAVEN TO THE
LOWER 60S NEAR SOUTH HAVEN AND LUDINGTON.

WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MON OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KGRR 041914
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AND
WARM FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM. CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A FEW OF THESE CUMULUS TO GROW SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BECOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM.
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH ONE OR TWO
INVERSIONS TO LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

WE ARE THEN EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A DRY DEEP
LAYER AIR MASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 700-
500 MB WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST BY
MON...BUT THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. H850 TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS C WILL SUPPORT MID
80S ON SUN AND UPPER 80S ON MON FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WE WILL SEE A NICE 40-45 KT LLJ SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
MON HELPING TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE NOSE OF IT
HOWEVER IS UP IN CANADA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT REALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP THE CAUSE EITHER.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING FROPA...AND WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS IS THIN AND ELEVATED. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO.

THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS FRONT COULD INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE SE
SECTION OF THE CWFA IF IT ENDS UP SLOWING UP A BIT AND CAN TAP SOME
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY LOOK LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE NEXT REAL PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIM ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
EARLIER TIMING. THIS SUBTLE TROUGH IS WITHIN A SIMILARLY WEAK SUMMER-
LIKE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MODELS HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY
REPRESENTING AT THIS TIME RANGE. WOULD THEREFORE WANT TO SEE MORE
MODEL CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE ASSIGNING MUCH CERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(MID 70S) BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE GRR AND LAN
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS NOTED ALREADY...WE EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR VSBY AT MOST TERMINALS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DISSIPATION SHOULD BE RAPID...MOST LIKELY
AROUND 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL ISSUES WITH
REGARDS TO THE WEATHER FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A
LIGHT GRADIENT OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS AND WAVES
UNDER 2 FEET. WATER TEMPS VARY FROM THE 40S NEAR GRAND HAVEN TO THE
LOWER 60S NEAR SOUTH HAVEN AND LUDINGTON.

WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MON OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 041914
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AND
WARM FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM. CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A FEW OF THESE CUMULUS TO GROW SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BECOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM.
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH ONE OR TWO
INVERSIONS TO LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

WE ARE THEN EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A DRY DEEP
LAYER AIR MASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 700-
500 MB WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST BY
MON...BUT THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. H850 TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS C WILL SUPPORT MID
80S ON SUN AND UPPER 80S ON MON FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WE WILL SEE A NICE 40-45 KT LLJ SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
MON HELPING TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE NOSE OF IT
HOWEVER IS UP IN CANADA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT REALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP THE CAUSE EITHER.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING FROPA...AND WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS IS THIN AND ELEVATED. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO.

THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS FRONT COULD INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE SE
SECTION OF THE CWFA IF IT ENDS UP SLOWING UP A BIT AND CAN TAP SOME
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY LOOK LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE NEXT REAL PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIM ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
EARLIER TIMING. THIS SUBTLE TROUGH IS WITHIN A SIMILARLY WEAK SUMMER-
LIKE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MODELS HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY
REPRESENTING AT THIS TIME RANGE. WOULD THEREFORE WANT TO SEE MORE
MODEL CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE ASSIGNING MUCH CERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(MID 70S) BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE GRR AND LAN
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS NOTED ALREADY...WE EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR VSBY AT MOST TERMINALS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DISSIPATION SHOULD BE RAPID...MOST LIKELY
AROUND 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL ISSUES WITH
REGARDS TO THE WEATHER FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A
LIGHT GRADIENT OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS AND WAVES
UNDER 2 FEET. WATER TEMPS VARY FROM THE 40S NEAR GRAND HAVEN TO THE
LOWER 60S NEAR SOUTH HAVEN AND LUDINGTON.

WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MON OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KGRR 041914
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AND
WARM FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM. CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A FEW OF THESE CUMULUS TO GROW SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BECOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM.
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH ONE OR TWO
INVERSIONS TO LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

WE ARE THEN EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A DRY DEEP
LAYER AIR MASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 700-
500 MB WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST BY
MON...BUT THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. H850 TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS C WILL SUPPORT MID
80S ON SUN AND UPPER 80S ON MON FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WE WILL SEE A NICE 40-45 KT LLJ SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
MON HELPING TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE NOSE OF IT
HOWEVER IS UP IN CANADA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT REALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP THE CAUSE EITHER.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING FROPA...AND WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS IS THIN AND ELEVATED. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO.

THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS FRONT COULD INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE SE
SECTION OF THE CWFA IF IT ENDS UP SLOWING UP A BIT AND CAN TAP SOME
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY LOOK LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE NEXT REAL PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIM ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
EARLIER TIMING. THIS SUBTLE TROUGH IS WITHIN A SIMILARLY WEAK SUMMER-
LIKE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MODELS HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY
REPRESENTING AT THIS TIME RANGE. WOULD THEREFORE WANT TO SEE MORE
MODEL CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE ASSIGNING MUCH CERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(MID 70S) BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE GRR AND LAN
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS NOTED ALREADY...WE EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR VSBY AT MOST TERMINALS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DISSIPATION SHOULD BE RAPID...MOST LIKELY
AROUND 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL ISSUES WITH
REGARDS TO THE WEATHER FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A
LIGHT GRADIENT OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS AND WAVES
UNDER 2 FEET. WATER TEMPS VARY FROM THE 40S NEAR GRAND HAVEN TO THE
LOWER 60S NEAR SOUTH HAVEN AND LUDINGTON.

WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MON OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041910
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
310 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE FAR SE /GLADWIN-IOSCO-ARENAC COUNTIES/ IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK H9-H8 THETA-E GRADIENT LAYING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF MICHIGAN. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
SLIDING INTO THE AREA LATER FROM CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN. WE MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND SFC DWPTS GRADUALLY CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. MIN TEMPS FAIRLY
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH EXPECTED. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS DECENT WAA COMMENCES ON
BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
H8 TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR +17C AND SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ERN UPPER AND THE LOW-
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CU. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A SMALL RISK FOR POP UP LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
INTERIOR NRN LOWER...WITH ~1300 J/KG MLCAPE (!?). HOWEVER...GIVEN
RESPECTABLE CAP JUST ABOVE 700 MB...DRY GOING FORECAST...AND LIMITED
CONDITIONAL COVERAGE...WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME - BUT CAN/T STRICTLY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO. WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT...IT/LL REMAIN WARM.
UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL DIP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. EXPECT
SOME CU TO FORM...ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF
SAID COLD FRONT. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR A DECENT SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL
TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN...PWAT/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES...FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 14KFT...AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT H8 LLJ
SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY/BRIEFLY BE IMPRESSIVE. AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT...H5 WINDS APPROACHING 35 KTS TOGETHER WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS /SEE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK/. ALL SAID...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY FRONT /AND THEREFORE PRECIP/ WILL PUSH E OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF /COVERAGE AND TIMING/
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM SE TO NW. CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP IN
POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL DAY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE WEEK RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. A LATE WEEK SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH IS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL
BE...LEADING TO THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR AREA...BUT GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO DRIFT OR REMAIN SOUTH AS THE DAYS GROW CLOSER
I EXPECT THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
COULD BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. A MAIN DRIVER OF THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING FROM AN H5 LOW OFF THE CA COAST...AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS
A GOOD DEAL OF DIVERGENCE IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS. POP
CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT FOR NOW...AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
DRY TO CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME
ARE A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF SOLUTIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE...PLACING BETTER INSTABILITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT STILL GIVING US SOME
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FEW SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE LOWER MI...SOUTH
OF APN. SO NO TROUBLE ANTICIPATED AT TAF SITES. HAZY CONDITIONS
/MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES/...WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT PLN/MBL. AFTER EARLY MORNING
FOG DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
ANTICIPATED FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 041910
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
310 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE FAR SE /GLADWIN-IOSCO-ARENAC COUNTIES/ IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK H9-H8 THETA-E GRADIENT LAYING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF MICHIGAN. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
SLIDING INTO THE AREA LATER FROM CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN. WE MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND SFC DWPTS GRADUALLY CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. MIN TEMPS FAIRLY
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH EXPECTED. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS DECENT WAA COMMENCES ON
BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
H8 TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR +17C AND SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ERN UPPER AND THE LOW-
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CU. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A SMALL RISK FOR POP UP LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
INTERIOR NRN LOWER...WITH ~1300 J/KG MLCAPE (!?). HOWEVER...GIVEN
RESPECTABLE CAP JUST ABOVE 700 MB...DRY GOING FORECAST...AND LIMITED
CONDITIONAL COVERAGE...WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME - BUT CAN/T STRICTLY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO. WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT...IT/LL REMAIN WARM.
UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL DIP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. EXPECT
SOME CU TO FORM...ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF
SAID COLD FRONT. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR A DECENT SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL
TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN...PWAT/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES...FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 14KFT...AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT H8 LLJ
SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY/BRIEFLY BE IMPRESSIVE. AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT...H5 WINDS APPROACHING 35 KTS TOGETHER WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS /SEE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK/. ALL SAID...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY FRONT /AND THEREFORE PRECIP/ WILL PUSH E OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF /COVERAGE AND TIMING/
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM SE TO NW. CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP IN
POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL DAY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE WEEK RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. A LATE WEEK SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH IS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL
BE...LEADING TO THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR AREA...BUT GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO DRIFT OR REMAIN SOUTH AS THE DAYS GROW CLOSER
I EXPECT THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
COULD BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. A MAIN DRIVER OF THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING FROM AN H5 LOW OFF THE CA COAST...AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS
A GOOD DEAL OF DIVERGENCE IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS. POP
CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT FOR NOW...AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
DRY TO CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME
ARE A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF SOLUTIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE...PLACING BETTER INSTABILITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT STILL GIVING US SOME
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FEW SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE LOWER MI...SOUTH
OF APN. SO NO TROUBLE ANTICIPATED AT TAF SITES. HAZY CONDITIONS
/MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES/...WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT PLN/MBL. AFTER EARLY MORNING
FOG DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
ANTICIPATED FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON



000
FXUS63 KMQT 041854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON



000
FXUS63 KGRR 041732
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGTH BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE GRR AND LAN
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS NOTED ALREADY...WE EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR VSBY AT MOST TERMINALS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DISSIPATION SHOULD BE RAPID...MOST LIKELY
AROUND 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM



000
FXUS63 KGRR 041732
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGTH BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE GRR AND LAN
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS NOTED ALREADY...WE EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR VSBY AT MOST TERMINALS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DISSIPATION SHOULD BE RAPID...MOST LIKELY
AROUND 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM



000
FXUS63 KGRR 041732
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGTH BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE GRR AND LAN
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS NOTED ALREADY...WE EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR VSBY AT MOST TERMINALS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DISSIPATION SHOULD BE RAPID...MOST LIKELY
AROUND 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM



000
FXUS63 KGRR 041732
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGTH BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE GRR AND LAN
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS NOTED ALREADY...WE EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR VSBY AT MOST TERMINALS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DISSIPATION SHOULD BE RAPID...MOST LIKELY
AROUND 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM



000
FXUS63 KMQT 041727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON



000
FXUS63 KMQT 041727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041726
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
126 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DIURNAL CU FIELDS BEGINNING TO GROW AND STILL EXPECTING A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES
ANTICIPATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MARINE FOG/STRATUS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
UPPER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER /ALBEIT A BIT SMOKY/. EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POP-UP
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF ALPENA THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY SKINNY MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA WITH NO
SHEAR...SO NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.  WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN
THAT PART OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL...A VERY NICE JULY 4TH WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FEW SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE LOWER MI...SOUTH
OF APN. SO NO TROUBLE ANTICIPATED AT TAF SITES. HAZY CONDITIONS
/MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES/...WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT PLN/MBL. AFTER EARLY MORNING
FOG DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KDTX 041724
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
124 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LATE DAY DIURNAL CU WILL FADE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.  THERE REMAINS A LOWER PROBABILITY
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT MBS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 041724
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
124 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LATE DAY DIURNAL CU WILL FADE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.  THERE REMAINS A LOWER PROBABILITY
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT MBS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 041724
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
124 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LATE DAY DIURNAL CU WILL FADE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.  THERE REMAINS A LOWER PROBABILITY
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT MBS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 041724
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
124 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LATE DAY DIURNAL CU WILL FADE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.  THERE REMAINS A LOWER PROBABILITY
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT MBS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 041724
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
124 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LATE DAY DIURNAL CU WILL FADE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.  THERE REMAINS A LOWER PROBABILITY
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT MBS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 041525
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH JULY SUNSHINE AND FEW CLOUDS THIS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO LATE EVENING ONLY TO GO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MORE MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING (IN TAFS).


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 041525
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH JULY SUNSHINE AND FEW CLOUDS THIS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO LATE EVENING ONLY TO GO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MORE MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING (IN TAFS).


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 041525
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH JULY SUNSHINE AND FEW CLOUDS THIS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO LATE EVENING ONLY TO GO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MORE MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING (IN TAFS).


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 041525
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH JULY SUNSHINE AND FEW CLOUDS THIS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO LATE EVENING ONLY TO GO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MORE MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING (IN TAFS).


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE ARE NO EXISTING ADVISORIES ON AREA RIVERS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A DECENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. AMOUNTS IN THE REALM OF ONE- HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY VARY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041431
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MARINE FOG/STRATUS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
UPPER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER /ALBEIT A BIT SMOKY/. EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POP-UP
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF ALPENA THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY SKINNY MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA WITH NO
SHEAR...SO NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.  WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN
THAT PART OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL...A VERY NICE JULY 4TH WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041431
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MARINE FOG/STRATUS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
UPPER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER /ALBEIT A BIT SMOKY/. EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POP-UP
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF ALPENA THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY SKINNY MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA WITH NO
SHEAR...SO NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.  WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN
THAT PART OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL...A VERY NICE JULY 4TH WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 041136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 041136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 041124
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
724 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH JULY SUNSHINE AND FEW CLOUDS THIS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO LATE EVENING ONLY TO GO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MORE MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING (IN TAFS).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 041124
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
724 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH JULY SUNSHINE AND FEW CLOUDS THIS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO LATE EVENING ONLY TO GO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MORE MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING (IN TAFS).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 041124
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
724 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH JULY SUNSHINE AND FEW CLOUDS THIS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO LATE EVENING ONLY TO GO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MORE MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING (IN TAFS).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 041124
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
724 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH JULY SUNSHINE AND FEW CLOUDS THIS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO LATE EVENING ONLY TO GO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MORE MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING (IN TAFS).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041122
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHALLOW RADIATION FOG AFFECTING KIWD/KSAW WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN
THE NEXT HR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041122
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHALLOW RADIATION FOG AFFECTING KIWD/KSAW WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN
THE NEXT HR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041122
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHALLOW RADIATION FOG AFFECTING KIWD/KSAW WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN
THE NEXT HR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041122
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHALLOW RADIATION FOG AFFECTING KIWD/KSAW WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN
THE NEXT HR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KDTX 041057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
657 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
FNT AND MBS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AT MBS...WITH
ANY ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLOUDS.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 041057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
657 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
FNT AND MBS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AT MBS...WITH
ANY ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLOUDS.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 041057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
657 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
FNT AND MBS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AT MBS...WITH
ANY ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLOUDS.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 041057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
657 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
FNT AND MBS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AT MBS...WITH
ANY ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLOUDS.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040842
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 040842
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040842
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 040842
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040832
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
432 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040832
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
432 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040730
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR.

A SHRA PASSING NEAR APN...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE
LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME
PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040730
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR.

A SHRA PASSING NEAR APN...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE
LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME
PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KGRR 040729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTWHEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWERVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS THERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL GET WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80
AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND
UPPER 80S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY IN THE LONG RANGE PART OF
THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MARJOR
SHORTWAVES TO WATCH. THE FIRST IS TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUECBEC. THE SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH
STRONGER...HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCAITED WITH IT AND IT TRIES
TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY MONDAY...HOWEVER AND EVEN
STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL KEEP THIS LEAD SYSTEM FROM
DIGGING LIKE IT OTHWISE WOULD HAVE IF THE WAVELENGHT BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. IT IS THE TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM
FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL KEEP THE
REALLY COOL AIR IN CANDADA INSTEAD OF OVER US. IT WILL ASLO WEAKEN
THE FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET (CONVEGECNE ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS
BY SHOWING VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A COLD
FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL SHOW
UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAIGNE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE OUT OF THE WAY WE GET SHORT TERM RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LETS THE WARM AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO
SOUTWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER I WOULD THICK THE FOREST FIRE
SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE
OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETWEEN WARMING. I
PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING AND ABUNDATN
SUNSHINE. I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY MID AFTERNOON.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT FOG
TOWARD MORNING...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ANY WORSE THE
MVFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHGIAN THE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT WILL RESULT IN MORE
PLESANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (STORMS COME IN AFTER
DARK)

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 040729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTWHEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWERVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS THERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL GET WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80
AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND
UPPER 80S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY IN THE LONG RANGE PART OF
THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MARJOR
SHORTWAVES TO WATCH. THE FIRST IS TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUECBEC. THE SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH
STRONGER...HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCAITED WITH IT AND IT TRIES
TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY MONDAY...HOWEVER AND EVEN
STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL KEEP THIS LEAD SYSTEM FROM
DIGGING LIKE IT OTHWISE WOULD HAVE IF THE WAVELENGHT BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. IT IS THE TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM
FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL KEEP THE
REALLY COOL AIR IN CANDADA INSTEAD OF OVER US. IT WILL ASLO WEAKEN
THE FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET (CONVEGECNE ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS
BY SHOWING VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A COLD
FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL SHOW
UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAIGNE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE OUT OF THE WAY WE GET SHORT TERM RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LETS THE WARM AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO
SOUTWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER I WOULD THICK THE FOREST FIRE
SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE
OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETWEEN WARMING. I
PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING AND ABUNDATN
SUNSHINE. I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY MID AFTERNOON.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT FOG
TOWARD MORNING...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ANY WORSE THE
MVFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHGIAN THE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT WILL RESULT IN MORE
PLESANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (STORMS COME IN AFTER
DARK)

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 040729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTWHEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWERVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS THERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL GET WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80
AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND
UPPER 80S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY IN THE LONG RANGE PART OF
THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MARJOR
SHORTWAVES TO WATCH. THE FIRST IS TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUECBEC. THE SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH
STRONGER...HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCAITED WITH IT AND IT TRIES
TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY MONDAY...HOWEVER AND EVEN
STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL KEEP THIS LEAD SYSTEM FROM
DIGGING LIKE IT OTHWISE WOULD HAVE IF THE WAVELENGHT BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. IT IS THE TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM
FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL KEEP THE
REALLY COOL AIR IN CANDADA INSTEAD OF OVER US. IT WILL ASLO WEAKEN
THE FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET (CONVEGECNE ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS
BY SHOWING VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A COLD
FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL SHOW
UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAIGNE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE OUT OF THE WAY WE GET SHORT TERM RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LETS THE WARM AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO
SOUTWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER I WOULD THICK THE FOREST FIRE
SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE
OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETWEEN WARMING. I
PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING AND ABUNDATN
SUNSHINE. I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY MID AFTERNOON.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT FOG
TOWARD MORNING...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ANY WORSE THE
MVFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHGIAN THE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT WILL RESULT IN MORE
PLESANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (STORMS COME IN AFTER
DARK)

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 040729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTWHEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWERVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS THERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL GET WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80
AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND
UPPER 80S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY IN THE LONG RANGE PART OF
THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MARJOR
SHORTWAVES TO WATCH. THE FIRST IS TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUECBEC. THE SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH
STRONGER...HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCAITED WITH IT AND IT TRIES
TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY MONDAY...HOWEVER AND EVEN
STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL KEEP THIS LEAD SYSTEM FROM
DIGGING LIKE IT OTHWISE WOULD HAVE IF THE WAVELENGHT BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. IT IS THE TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM
FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL KEEP THE
REALLY COOL AIR IN CANDADA INSTEAD OF OVER US. IT WILL ASLO WEAKEN
THE FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET (CONVEGECNE ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS
BY SHOWING VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A COLD
FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL SHOW
UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAIGNE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE OUT OF THE WAY WE GET SHORT TERM RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LETS THE WARM AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO
SOUTWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER I WOULD THICK THE FOREST FIRE
SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE
OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETWEEN WARMING. I
PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING AND ABUNDATN
SUNSHINE. I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY MID AFTERNOON.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT FOG
TOWARD MORNING...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ANY WORSE THE
MVFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHGIAN THE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT WILL RESULT IN MORE
PLESANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (STORMS COME IN AFTER
DARK)

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 040729 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL GET
WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AWAY FROM
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY...MID 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THERE ARE THREE ISSUES WE ARE CONSIDERING THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
IS THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SECOND IS JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET EACH DAY AND
FINALLY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (THAT IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST).

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS OUR POLAR JET IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TWO MAJOR
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WE ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST IS
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY OVER QUEBEC. THE
SECOND ONE...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT... TRIES TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER... AND EVEN STRONG SYSTEM UPSTREAM OF THAT WILL
KEEP THIS THAT SYSTEM FROM DIGGING LIKE IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
IF THE WAVE LENGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAD BEEN GREATER. THE
TRAILING MUCH DEEP SYSTEM... FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT...WILL KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR IN CANADA
INSTEAD OF OVER US. THAT IS DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES THAT OCCUR IN
FRONT OF DEEP SYSTEM LIKE THAT. THAT WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

AS FOR TODAY...THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY WILL HAVE THE JET CORE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A 15 TO 20 KNOT
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. CLEARLY NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE OUR NORTHEAST CWA IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE POLAR JET ( ALOFT). MODEL SOUNDING CONFIRM THIS BY SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL HAVE TO ENTRAIN ALL THAT DRY AIR. EVEN SO WE WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT CREATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDING STILL
SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN OUR NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD IMAGINE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BIG RAPIDS BETWEEN...SAY 2 PM AND 6 PM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY WE EARLY TONIGHT WE GET SHORT
WAVE RIDGING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT LETS THE WARM
AIR COME BACK IN AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. I WOULD THINK THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE PLUM WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVER THE NORTHER MIDWEST WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THEN
DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY. I PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON MONDAY WE HAVE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY. THE MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BAND COMING INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY WILL SEE DEEP MIXING (SOUNDING
SUGGEST TO NEAR 725 MB) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ADD TO THAT A SOUTH
WIND... NOT A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN... AND I WOULD THINK HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 90 BY
MID AFTERNOON. I PUT UPPER 80S IN THE GRIDS.

BOTTOM LINE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
IT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL BE DURING A MIN OF INSTABILITY...SO DESPITE BEING UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS.

IT WILL BE COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH.  THE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH IN
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THE FLOW APPEARS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  HAVE
20/30 POPS TO COVER THE WAVE.  SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT FOG
TOWARD MORNING...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ANY WORSE THE
MVFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MEANS NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE BEACHES...THAT
WILL RESULT IN MORE PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(STORMS COME IN AFTER DARK)

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040715
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE BUT MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW FOR A RESTRICTION. THE
ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WILL OTHERWISE BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ABSORB A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE MBS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE VFR CEILING AROUND 5000
FT IS EXPECTED...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES SATURDAY EVENING. JUST
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE DTW AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040715
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE BUT MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW FOR A RESTRICTION. THE
ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WILL OTHERWISE BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ABSORB A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE MBS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE VFR CEILING AROUND 5000
FT IS EXPECTED...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES SATURDAY EVENING. JUST
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE DTW AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040715
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE BUT MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW FOR A RESTRICTION. THE
ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WILL OTHERWISE BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ABSORB A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE MBS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE VFR CEILING AROUND 5000
FT IS EXPECTED...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES SATURDAY EVENING. JUST
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE DTW AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040715
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT WARMING OF THE
MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST ACROSS FAR
NORTH...CLOSER TO 500 MB COLD POOL OF -15 TO -16 C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH DID HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z REGIONAL GEM/NAM BOTH
INDICATING ACTIVITY OVER TRI-CITIES REGION/NEAR SAGINAW
BAY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING TO UPPER
60S...WHICH SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION AS SBCAPES WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RISE BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C....WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES LOWER MI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...THUS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS UNDER FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S. AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE OVER
CANADA... WILL FORCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE TN TO OH VALLEYS WELL SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER SE MI. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE S-SW GRADIENT OVER LOWER MI MON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN RESPONSE. WITH FULL INSOLATION...
THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTTIME MINS
SUN AND MON NIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON
NIGHT DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINICITY FOR JULY. STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/ INTO WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE UPPER JET AXIS AND BETTER MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW. IN TERMS OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE...THE GFS IS ALMOST 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP
LAYER MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE MI. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS AND IN LIGHT OF RECENT TRENDS...THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED ATTM...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE LATER FROPA OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG OVER LAKE
STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE BUT MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW FOR A RESTRICTION. THE
ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WILL OTHERWISE BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ABSORB A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE MBS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE VFR CEILING AROUND 5000
FT IS EXPECTED...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES SATURDAY EVENING. JUST
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE DTW AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040529
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR.

A SHRA PASSING NEAR APN...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE
LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME
PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MLR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040529
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR.

A SHRA PASSING NEAR APN...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE
LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME
PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MLR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040529
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR.

A SHRA PASSING NEAR APN...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE
LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME
PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MLR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040529
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR.

A SHRA PASSING NEAR APN...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE
LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME
PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MLR



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 040512
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
112 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE VERY QUIET AND SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AT THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE ONLY THING OF NOTE REMAINS THE LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM FOR SAT.

THE ONLY THING AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FLOATING THROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND A GOOD DEAL OF SMOKE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE FIRES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE VERY DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS TRYING TO FORM.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF A SHOWER AND STORM FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH BRING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
SAT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASIDE FROM SOME
POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. CAPES
OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF INVERSIONS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL. THE BEST CHC OF STORMS WILL BE
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN LOWER AND ERN UPPER CLOSER TO THE UPPER
WAVE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN THEN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
WITH ONLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES DURING THAT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE/FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. A BIT MORE OF A LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPS SHOULD
BE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SUN WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WE EXPECT A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING HAS
GROWN DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED WITH THIS OCCURRING NEAR THE DIURNAL
MINIMUM FOR INSTABILITY. DYNAMICS OVERALL DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE
EITHER. WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 850 MB/
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OUR AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SPEED
MAXIMUM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET. THERE IS ALMOST NO LOW LEVEL SHEAR COMPONENT EXPECTED
NORMAL TO THE FRONT...SO A FAIRLY UNIFORM BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE RESULT. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS
CHARACTERIZED BY CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE AXIS SUGGESTING
GENERAL WEAKENING.

WE ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NUISANCE FLOODING AS IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BOOST
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH
THE AREA.

NO OTHER WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT FOG
TOWARD MORNING...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ANY WORSE THE
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE HEADLINES BEING NEEDED AT THIS TIME
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR A WEAK GRADIENT TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040357
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE BUT MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW FOR A RESTRICTION. THE
ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WILL OTHERWISE BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ABSORB A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE MBS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE VFR CEILING AROUND 5000
FT IS EXPECTED...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES SATURDAY EVENING. JUST
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE DTW AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SPLIT NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT. YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM SHEAR MAX IS UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION
AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
SHEDDING STRAY CIRRUS INTO SE MICHIGAN AS IT DOES SO. WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL DRIVE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS VERY DRY AND ADVECTIONS WEAK. AT THE
SURFACE, UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL
STILL MANAGE TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SOME HELP
FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, BUT LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT WILL STILL LEAD
TO A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN LOCALLY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-69, WILL FAVOR
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATING NIGHT, THOUGH THE DEVELOPING WEAK GRADIENT
MAY LEAD TO LIGHT MIXING TOWARD MORNING NORTH OF I-69. WILL FAVOR
12Z MET/MAV BLEND ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL DROP A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MID MI BUT THE SUITE OF HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN FEED OFF THE STRONG LL LAPSE RATES AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORM. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY
RANGING FROM LESS THAN 100 J/KG MLCAPE TO OVER 1500...BUT THE HIGH
END VALUES ARE THE RESULT OF THE TYPICAL MODEL BIASES OF THE GFS/NAM
TO EXAGGERATE LL MOISTURE FIELDS SO WILL DISREGARD THEM. ALSO
WORKING AGAINST PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE RAPIDLY BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN MI WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. ALL IN ALL THINK THE CURRENT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE WARRANTED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ABOUT 20-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PRETTY MILD SATURDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE. RIDGING ALOFT WITH DECENT MIXING
DEPTHS TO AROUND 5KFT AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO
HIT THE 80 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL COME ON
SUNDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ADDING MORE OF AN ADVECTIVE COMPONENT TO
THE TEMPS. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS DESCENT
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PUSHED INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE TO
FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED. THERE
IS ENOUGH INCREASE IN CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING TO PERHAPS GENERATE A THREAT. BARES
WATCHING. TEMP DROP BEHIND THE FRONT IS MARGINAL AND BRIEF. HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 60. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER STORMS.

DE

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 040357
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE BUT MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW FOR A RESTRICTION. THE
ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WILL OTHERWISE BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ABSORB A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE MBS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE VFR CEILING AROUND 5000
FT IS EXPECTED...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES SATURDAY EVENING. JUST
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE DTW AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SPLIT NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT. YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM SHEAR MAX IS UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION
AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
SHEDDING STRAY CIRRUS INTO SE MICHIGAN AS IT DOES SO. WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL DRIVE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS VERY DRY AND ADVECTIONS WEAK. AT THE
SURFACE, UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL
STILL MANAGE TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SOME HELP
FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, BUT LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT WILL STILL LEAD
TO A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN LOCALLY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-69, WILL FAVOR
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATING NIGHT, THOUGH THE DEVELOPING WEAK GRADIENT
MAY LEAD TO LIGHT MIXING TOWARD MORNING NORTH OF I-69. WILL FAVOR
12Z MET/MAV BLEND ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL DROP A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MID MI BUT THE SUITE OF HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN FEED OFF THE STRONG LL LAPSE RATES AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORM. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY
RANGING FROM LESS THAN 100 J/KG MLCAPE TO OVER 1500...BUT THE HIGH
END VALUES ARE THE RESULT OF THE TYPICAL MODEL BIASES OF THE GFS/NAM
TO EXAGGERATE LL MOISTURE FIELDS SO WILL DISREGARD THEM. ALSO
WORKING AGAINST PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE RAPIDLY BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN MI WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. ALL IN ALL THINK THE CURRENT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE WARRANTED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ABOUT 20-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PRETTY MILD SATURDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE. RIDGING ALOFT WITH DECENT MIXING
DEPTHS TO AROUND 5KFT AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO
HIT THE 80 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL COME ON
SUNDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ADDING MORE OF AN ADVECTIVE COMPONENT TO
THE TEMPS. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS DESCENT
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PUSHED INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE TO
FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED. THERE
IS ENOUGH INCREASE IN CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING TO PERHAPS GENERATE A THREAT. BARES
WATCHING. TEMP DROP BEHIND THE FRONT IS MARGINAL AND BRIEF. HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 60. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER STORMS.

DE

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040209
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040209
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040209
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040209
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
828 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ISOLD TSRA NEAR IWD AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FCST PERIODS WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT SAW AND IWD BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 040028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
828 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ISOLD TSRA NEAR IWD AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FCST PERIODS WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT SAW AND IWD BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 032347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
747 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE VERY QUIET AND SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AT THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE ONLY THING OF NOTE REMAINS THE LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM FOR SAT.

THE ONLY THING AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FLOATING THROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND A GOOD DEAL OF SMOKE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE FIRES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE VERY DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS TRYING TO FORM.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF A SHOWER AND STORM FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH BRING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
SAT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASIDE FROM SOME
POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. CAPES
OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF INVERSIONS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL. THE BEST CHC OF STORMS WILL BE
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN LOWER AND ERN UPPER CLOSER TO THE UPPER
WAVE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN THEN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
WITH ONLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES DURING THAT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE/FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. A BIT MORE OF A LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPS SHOULD
BE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SUN WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WE EXPECT A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING HAS
GROWN DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED WITH THIS OCCURRING NEAR THE DIURNAL
MINIMUM FOR INSTABILITY. DYNAMICS OVERALL DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE
EITHER. WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 850 MB/
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OUR AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SPEED
MAXIMUM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET. THERE IS ALMOST NO LOW LEVEL SHEAR COMPONENT EXPECTED
NORMAL TO THE FRONT...SO A FAIRLY UNIFORM BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE RESULT. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS
CHARACTERIZED BY CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE AXIS SUGGESTING
GENERAL WEAKENING.

WE ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NUISANCE FLOODING AS IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BOOST
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH
THE AREA.

NO OTHER WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SMALL AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WERE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE
CHANCES ARE VERY SMALL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT THEN
GO WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE HEADLINES BEING NEEDED AT THIS TIME
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR A WEAK GRADIENT TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 032347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
747 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE VERY QUIET AND SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AT THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE ONLY THING OF NOTE REMAINS THE LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM FOR SAT.

THE ONLY THING AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FLOATING THROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND A GOOD DEAL OF SMOKE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE FIRES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE VERY DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS TRYING TO FORM.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF A SHOWER AND STORM FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH BRING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
SAT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASIDE FROM SOME
POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. CAPES
OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF INVERSIONS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL. THE BEST CHC OF STORMS WILL BE
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN LOWER AND ERN UPPER CLOSER TO THE UPPER
WAVE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN THEN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
WITH ONLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES DURING THAT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE/FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. A BIT MORE OF A LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPS SHOULD
BE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SUN WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WE EXPECT A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING HAS
GROWN DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED WITH THIS OCCURRING NEAR THE DIURNAL
MINIMUM FOR INSTABILITY. DYNAMICS OVERALL DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE
EITHER. WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 850 MB/
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OUR AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SPEED
MAXIMUM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET. THERE IS ALMOST NO LOW LEVEL SHEAR COMPONENT EXPECTED
NORMAL TO THE FRONT...SO A FAIRLY UNIFORM BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE RESULT. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS
CHARACTERIZED BY CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE AXIS SUGGESTING
GENERAL WEAKENING.

WE ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NUISANCE FLOODING AS IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BOOST
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH
THE AREA.

NO OTHER WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SMALL AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WERE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE
CHANCES ARE VERY SMALL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT THEN
GO WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE HEADLINES BEING NEEDED AT THIS TIME
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR A WEAK GRADIENT TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KDTX 032320
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
720 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ABSORB A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE MBS AREA DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE VFR CEILING AROUND 5000 FT IS EXPECTED...AND AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY
EVENING. JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DTW AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SPLIT NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT. YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM SHEAR MAX IS UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION
AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
SHEDDING STRAY CIRRUS INTO SE MICHIGAN AS IT DOES SO. WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL DRIVE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS VERY DRY AND ADVECTIONS WEAK. AT THE
SURFACE, UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL
STILL MANAGE TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SOME HELP
FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, BUT LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT WILL STILL LEAD
TO A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN LOCALLY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-69, WILL FAVOR
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATING NIGHT, THOUGH THE DEVELOPING WEAK GRADIENT
MAY LEAD TO LIGHT MIXING TOWARD MORNING NORTH OF I-69. WILL FAVOR
12Z MET/MAV BLEND ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL DROP A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MID MI BUT THE SUITE OF HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN FEED OFF THE STRONG LL LAPSE RATES AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORM. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY
RANGING FROM LESS THAN 100 J/KG MLCAPE TO OVER 1500...BUT THE HIGH
END VALUES ARE THE RESULT OF THE TYPICAL MODEL BIASES OF THE GFS/NAM
TO EXAGGERATE LL MOISTURE FIELDS SO WILL DISREGARD THEM. ALSO
WORKING AGAINST PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE RAPIDLY BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN MI WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. ALL IN ALL THINK THE CURRENT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE WARRANTED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ABOUT 20-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PRETTY MILD SATURDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE. RIDGING ALOFT WITH DECENT MIXING
DEPTHS TO AROUND 5KFT AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO
HIT THE 80 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL COME ON
SUNDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ADDING MORE OF AN ADVECTIVE COMPONENT TO
THE TEMPS. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS DESCENT
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PUSHED INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE TO
FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED. THERE
IS ENOUGH INCREASE IN CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING TO PERHAPS GENERATE A THREAT. BARES
WATCHING. TEMP DROP BEHIND THE FRONT IS MARGINAL AND BRIEF. HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 60. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER STORMS.

DE

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 032320
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
720 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ABSORB A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE MBS AREA DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE VFR CEILING AROUND 5000 FT IS EXPECTED...AND AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY
EVENING. JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DTW AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SPLIT NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT. YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM SHEAR MAX IS UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION
AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
SHEDDING STRAY CIRRUS INTO SE MICHIGAN AS IT DOES SO. WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL DRIVE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS VERY DRY AND ADVECTIONS WEAK. AT THE
SURFACE, UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL
STILL MANAGE TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SOME HELP
FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, BUT LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT WILL STILL LEAD
TO A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN LOCALLY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-69, WILL FAVOR
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATING NIGHT, THOUGH THE DEVELOPING WEAK GRADIENT
MAY LEAD TO LIGHT MIXING TOWARD MORNING NORTH OF I-69. WILL FAVOR
12Z MET/MAV BLEND ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL DROP A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MID MI BUT THE SUITE OF HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN FEED OFF THE STRONG LL LAPSE RATES AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORM. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY
RANGING FROM LESS THAN 100 J/KG MLCAPE TO OVER 1500...BUT THE HIGH
END VALUES ARE THE RESULT OF THE TYPICAL MODEL BIASES OF THE GFS/NAM
TO EXAGGERATE LL MOISTURE FIELDS SO WILL DISREGARD THEM. ALSO
WORKING AGAINST PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE RAPIDLY BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN MI WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. ALL IN ALL THINK THE CURRENT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE WARRANTED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ABOUT 20-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PRETTY MILD SATURDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE. RIDGING ALOFT WITH DECENT MIXING
DEPTHS TO AROUND 5KFT AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO
HIT THE 80 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL COME ON
SUNDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ADDING MORE OF AN ADVECTIVE COMPONENT TO
THE TEMPS. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS DESCENT
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PUSHED INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE TO
FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED. THERE
IS ENOUGH INCREASE IN CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING TO PERHAPS GENERATE A THREAT. BARES
WATCHING. TEMP DROP BEHIND THE FRONT IS MARGINAL AND BRIEF. HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 60. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER STORMS.

DE

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 032235
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 032235
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 032235
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KMQT 031956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER AT KSAW AND MAINLY SHOWERS
AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF SHOWERS OCCUR AT KIWD
OR KSAW THIS AFTERNOON...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER AT KSAW AND MAINLY SHOWERS
AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF SHOWERS OCCUR AT KIWD
OR KSAW THIS AFTERNOON...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031954
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031954
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031954
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031954
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KMQT 031950
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER AT KSAW AND MAINLY SHOWERS
AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF SHOWERS OCCUR AT KIWD
OR KSAW THIS AFTERNOON...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031942
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SPLIT NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT. YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM SHEAR MAX IS UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION
AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
SHEDDING STRAY CIRRUS INTO SE MICHIGAN AS IT DOES SO. WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL DRIVE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS VERY DRY AND ADVECTIONS WEAK. AT THE
SURFACE, UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL
STILL MANAGE TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SOME HELP
FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, BUT LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT WILL STILL LEAD
TO A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN LOCALLY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-69, WILL FAVOR
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATING NIGHT, THOUGH THE DEVELOPING WEAK GRADIENT
MAY LEAD TO LIGHT MIXING TOWARD MORNING NORTH OF I-69. WILL FAVOR
12Z MET/MAV BLEND ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL DROP A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MID MI BUT THE SUITE OF HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN FEED OFF THE STRONG LL LAPSE RATES AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORM. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY
RANGING FROM LESS THAN 100 J/KG MLCAPE TO OVER 1500...BUT THE HIGH
END VALUES ARE THE RESULT OF THE TYPICAL MODEL BIASES OF THE GFS/NAM
TO EXAGGERATE LL MOISTURE FIELDS SO WILL DISREGARD THEM. ALSO
WORKING AGAINST PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE RAPIDLY BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN MI WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. ALL IN ALL THINK THE CURRENT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE WARRANTED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ABOUT 20-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PRETTY MILD SATURDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE. RIDGING ALOFT WITH DECENT MIXING
DEPTHS TO AROUND 5KFT AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO
HIT THE 80 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL COME ON
SUNDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ADDING MORE OF AN ADVECTIVE COMPONENT TO
THE TEMPS. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS DESCENT
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PUSHED INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE TO
FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED. THERE
IS ENOUGH INCREASE IN CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING TO PERHAPS GENERATE A THREAT. BARES
WATCHING. TEMP DROP BEHIND THE FRONT IS MARGINAL AND BRIEF. HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 60. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER STORMS.


DE

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VERY DRY COLUMN WILL SUPPORT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN PASSING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ALASKAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ALL
WELL ABOVE 10KFT. CALM TO VARIABLE WIND WILL BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE DETROIT AREA THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031942
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SPLIT NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT. YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM SHEAR MAX IS UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION
AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
SHEDDING STRAY CIRRUS INTO SE MICHIGAN AS IT DOES SO. WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL DRIVE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS VERY DRY AND ADVECTIONS WEAK. AT THE
SURFACE, UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL
STILL MANAGE TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SOME HELP
FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, BUT LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT WILL STILL LEAD
TO A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN LOCALLY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-69, WILL FAVOR
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATING NIGHT, THOUGH THE DEVELOPING WEAK GRADIENT
MAY LEAD TO LIGHT MIXING TOWARD MORNING NORTH OF I-69. WILL FAVOR
12Z MET/MAV BLEND ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL DROP A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MID MI BUT THE SUITE OF HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN FEED OFF THE STRONG LL LAPSE RATES AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORM. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY
RANGING FROM LESS THAN 100 J/KG MLCAPE TO OVER 1500...BUT THE HIGH
END VALUES ARE THE RESULT OF THE TYPICAL MODEL BIASES OF THE GFS/NAM
TO EXAGGERATE LL MOISTURE FIELDS SO WILL DISREGARD THEM. ALSO
WORKING AGAINST PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE RAPIDLY BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN MI WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. ALL IN ALL THINK THE CURRENT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE WARRANTED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ABOUT 20-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PRETTY MILD SATURDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE. RIDGING ALOFT WITH DECENT MIXING
DEPTHS TO AROUND 5KFT AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO
HIT THE 80 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL COME ON
SUNDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ADDING MORE OF AN ADVECTIVE COMPONENT TO
THE TEMPS. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS DESCENT
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PUSHED INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE TO
FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED. THERE
IS ENOUGH INCREASE IN CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING TO PERHAPS GENERATE A THREAT. BARES
WATCHING. TEMP DROP BEHIND THE FRONT IS MARGINAL AND BRIEF. HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 60. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER STORMS.


DE

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VERY DRY COLUMN WILL SUPPORT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN PASSING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ALASKAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ALL
WELL ABOVE 10KFT. CALM TO VARIABLE WIND WILL BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE DETROIT AREA THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031942
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SPLIT NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT. YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM SHEAR MAX IS UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION
AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
SHEDDING STRAY CIRRUS INTO SE MICHIGAN AS IT DOES SO. WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL DRIVE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS VERY DRY AND ADVECTIONS WEAK. AT THE
SURFACE, UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL
STILL MANAGE TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SOME HELP
FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, BUT LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT WILL STILL LEAD
TO A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN LOCALLY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-69, WILL FAVOR
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATING NIGHT, THOUGH THE DEVELOPING WEAK GRADIENT
MAY LEAD TO LIGHT MIXING TOWARD MORNING NORTH OF I-69. WILL FAVOR
12Z MET/MAV BLEND ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL DROP A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MID MI BUT THE SUITE OF HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN FEED OFF THE STRONG LL LAPSE RATES AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORM. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY
RANGING FROM LESS THAN 100 J/KG MLCAPE TO OVER 1500...BUT THE HIGH
END VALUES ARE THE RESULT OF THE TYPICAL MODEL BIASES OF THE GFS/NAM
TO EXAGGERATE LL MOISTURE FIELDS SO WILL DISREGARD THEM. ALSO
WORKING AGAINST PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE RAPIDLY BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN MI WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. ALL IN ALL THINK THE CURRENT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE WARRANTED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ABOUT 20-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PRETTY MILD SATURDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE. RIDGING ALOFT WITH DECENT MIXING
DEPTHS TO AROUND 5KFT AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO
HIT THE 80 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL COME ON
SUNDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ADDING MORE OF AN ADVECTIVE COMPONENT TO
THE TEMPS. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS DESCENT
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PUSHED INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE TO
FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED. THERE
IS ENOUGH INCREASE IN CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING TO PERHAPS GENERATE A THREAT. BARES
WATCHING. TEMP DROP BEHIND THE FRONT IS MARGINAL AND BRIEF. HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 60. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER STORMS.


DE

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VERY DRY COLUMN WILL SUPPORT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN PASSING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ALASKAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ALL
WELL ABOVE 10KFT. CALM TO VARIABLE WIND WILL BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE DETROIT AREA THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031942
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SPLIT NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT. YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM SHEAR MAX IS UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION
AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
SHEDDING STRAY CIRRUS INTO SE MICHIGAN AS IT DOES SO. WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL DRIVE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS VERY DRY AND ADVECTIONS WEAK. AT THE
SURFACE, UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL
STILL MANAGE TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SOME HELP
FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, BUT LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT WILL STILL LEAD
TO A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN LOCALLY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-69, WILL FAVOR
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATING NIGHT, THOUGH THE DEVELOPING WEAK GRADIENT
MAY LEAD TO LIGHT MIXING TOWARD MORNING NORTH OF I-69. WILL FAVOR
12Z MET/MAV BLEND ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL DROP A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MID MI BUT THE SUITE OF HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN FEED OFF THE STRONG LL LAPSE RATES AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORM. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY
RANGING FROM LESS THAN 100 J/KG MLCAPE TO OVER 1500...BUT THE HIGH
END VALUES ARE THE RESULT OF THE TYPICAL MODEL BIASES OF THE GFS/NAM
TO EXAGGERATE LL MOISTURE FIELDS SO WILL DISREGARD THEM. ALSO
WORKING AGAINST PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE RAPIDLY BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN MI WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. ALL IN ALL THINK THE CURRENT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE WARRANTED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ABOUT 20-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PRETTY MILD SATURDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE. RIDGING ALOFT WITH DECENT MIXING
DEPTHS TO AROUND 5KFT AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO
HIT THE 80 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL COME ON
SUNDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ADDING MORE OF AN ADVECTIVE COMPONENT TO
THE TEMPS. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS DESCENT
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PUSHED INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE TO
FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED. THERE
IS ENOUGH INCREASE IN CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING TO PERHAPS GENERATE A THREAT. BARES
WATCHING. TEMP DROP BEHIND THE FRONT IS MARGINAL AND BRIEF. HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 60. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD CARRIES WEAK CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER STORMS.


DE

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VERY DRY COLUMN WILL SUPPORT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN PASSING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ALASKAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ALL
WELL ABOVE 10KFT. CALM TO VARIABLE WIND WILL BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE DETROIT AREA THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031906
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE VERY QUIET AND SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AT THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE ONLY THING OF NOTE REMAINS THE LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM FOR SAT.

THE ONLY THING AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FLOATING THROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND A GOOD DEAL OF SMOKE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE FIRES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE VERY DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS TRYING TO FORM.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF A SHOWER AND STORM FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH BRING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
SAT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASIDE FROM SOME
POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. CAPES
OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF INVERSIONS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL. THE BEST CHC OF STORMS WILL BE
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN LOWER AND ERN UPPER CLOSER TO THE UPPER
WAVE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN THEN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
WITH ONLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES DURING THAT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE/FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. A BIT MORE OF A LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPS SHOULD
BE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SUN WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WE EXPECT A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING HAS
GROWN DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED WITH THIS OCCURRING NEAR THE DIURNAL
MINIMUM FOR INSTABILITY. DYNAMICS OVERALL DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE
EITHER. WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 850 MB/
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OUR AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SPEED
MAXIMUM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET. THERE IS ALMOST NO LOW LEVEL SHEAR COMPONENT EXPECTED
NORMAL TO THE FRONT...SO A FAIRLY UNIFORM BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE RESULT. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS
CHARACTERIZED BY CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE AXIS SUGGESTING
GENERAL WEAKENING.

WE ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NUISANCE FLOODING AS IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BOOST
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH
THE AREA.

NO OTHER WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT THE TERMINALS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE EXCEPTION IS MKG...WHICH IS SEEING
ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE BREEZE.

LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO GENERALLY
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE HEADLINES BEING NEEDED AT THIS TIME
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR A WEAK GRADIENT TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031906
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE VERY QUIET AND SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AT THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE ONLY THING OF NOTE REMAINS THE LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM FOR SAT.

THE ONLY THING AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FLOATING THROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND A GOOD DEAL OF SMOKE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE FIRES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE VERY DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS TRYING TO FORM.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF A SHOWER AND STORM FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH BRING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
SAT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASIDE FROM SOME
POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. CAPES
OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF INVERSIONS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL. THE BEST CHC OF STORMS WILL BE
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN LOWER AND ERN UPPER CLOSER TO THE UPPER
WAVE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN THEN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
WITH ONLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES DURING THAT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE/FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. A BIT MORE OF A LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPS SHOULD
BE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SUN WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WE EXPECT A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING HAS
GROWN DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED WITH THIS OCCURRING NEAR THE DIURNAL
MINIMUM FOR INSTABILITY. DYNAMICS OVERALL DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE
EITHER. WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 850 MB/
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OUR AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SPEED
MAXIMUM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET. THERE IS ALMOST NO LOW LEVEL SHEAR COMPONENT EXPECTED
NORMAL TO THE FRONT...SO A FAIRLY UNIFORM BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE RESULT. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS
CHARACTERIZED BY CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE AXIS SUGGESTING
GENERAL WEAKENING.

WE ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NUISANCE FLOODING AS IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BOOST
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH
THE AREA.

NO OTHER WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT THE TERMINALS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE EXCEPTION IS MKG...WHICH IS SEEING
ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE BREEZE.

LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO GENERALLY
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE HEADLINES BEING NEEDED AT THIS TIME
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR A WEAK GRADIENT TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KMQT 031752
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER AT KSAW AND MAINLY SHOWERS
AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF SHOWERS OCCUR AT KIWD
OR KSAW THIS AFTERNOON...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031752
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER AT KSAW AND MAINLY SHOWERS
AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF SHOWERS OCCUR AT KIWD
OR KSAW THIS AFTERNOON...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031731
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
131 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY FROM
AROUND 80 TODAY...TO THE LOWER 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY TO THE MIDDLE
80S ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR
SUMMER WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP THE
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ON THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING
AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVERGENCE ON
IT IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE GFS INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR MT PLEASANT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PULLING
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT...STILL FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PCT CHC OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE FOURTH.

OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANY PRECIP WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVES A BIT QUICKER...PROBABLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  CLIMATICALLY THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO IF THIS VERIFY WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT PROCEEDS THE
FRONT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SE CWA MID
DAY TUESDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  IT APPEARS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
TRAVELING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-
96 COULD SEE MORE RAIN MOVE IN...DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT THE TERMINALS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE EXCEPTION IS MKG...WHICH IS SEEING
ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE BREEZE.

LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO GENERALLY
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031731
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
131 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY FROM
AROUND 80 TODAY...TO THE LOWER 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY TO THE MIDDLE
80S ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR
SUMMER WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP THE
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ON THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING
AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVERGENCE ON
IT IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE GFS INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR MT PLEASANT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PULLING
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT...STILL FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PCT CHC OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE FOURTH.

OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANY PRECIP WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVES A BIT QUICKER...PROBABLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  CLIMATICALLY THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO IF THIS VERIFY WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT PROCEEDS THE
FRONT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SE CWA MID
DAY TUESDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  IT APPEARS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
TRAVELING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-
96 COULD SEE MORE RAIN MOVE IN...DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT THE TERMINALS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE EXCEPTION IS MKG...WHICH IS SEEING
ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE BREEZE.

LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO GENERALLY
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031613
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1213 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.AVIATION...

VERY DRY COLUMN WILL SUPPORT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN PASSING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ALASKAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ALL
WELL ABOVE 10KFT. CALM TO VARIABLE WIND WILL BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE DETROIT AREA THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...AS 00Z DTX SOUNDING
INDICATED A 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSION OF 30 C. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES/MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
GUIDANCE AND 925/850 MB TEMPS...18 C AND 12 C RESPECTIVELY...POINT
TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MAIN HINDRANCE...OUTSIDE OF
THE COOL START TO THE DAY (40S) WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS (25-40
KFT/MAINLY SOUTH) AS UPPER LEVEL JET (250 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY WITH MEAN 1000-500 MB RH AROUND 30 PERCENT.

TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WORKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE TO NO HEIGHT FALLS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND 850-700 MB THETA-E AXIS
STILL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO
BE A STRUGGLE TO GET CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...MUCH LESS RAIN SHOWERS.
VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF LOWER MI EARLY
SAT...EVENTUALLY REACHING QUEBEC AND UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SAT
EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MI
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SAT. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS FRONT WEAKENING/WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS
LOWER MI DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AS THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THIS WILL FAVOR THERMALLY
DRIVEN SFC TROUGHING...MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND TO SOME
EXTENT GFS APPEAR RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE POOLING
OVER CENTRAL MI. THIS LEADS TO A LITTLE BETTER CAPE AND CAUSES THESE
SOLUTIONS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. ADJUSTING SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN A
LITTLE AND CONSIDERING THAT BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SAT AFTERNOON
WILL SUPPORT SOME MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS JUST LATE DAY
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME MIXING DEPTHS SAT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO
SUN...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE THEN SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LATE
SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
MODEST WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING UPPER 80S BY
MONDAY.

A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IN THE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE THAT THE
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INTO SE MI. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
ADVECT INTO SE MI IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031613
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1213 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.AVIATION...

VERY DRY COLUMN WILL SUPPORT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN PASSING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ALASKAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ALL
WELL ABOVE 10KFT. CALM TO VARIABLE WIND WILL BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE DETROIT AREA THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...AS 00Z DTX SOUNDING
INDICATED A 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSION OF 30 C. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES/MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
GUIDANCE AND 925/850 MB TEMPS...18 C AND 12 C RESPECTIVELY...POINT
TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MAIN HINDRANCE...OUTSIDE OF
THE COOL START TO THE DAY (40S) WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS (25-40
KFT/MAINLY SOUTH) AS UPPER LEVEL JET (250 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY WITH MEAN 1000-500 MB RH AROUND 30 PERCENT.

TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WORKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE TO NO HEIGHT FALLS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND 850-700 MB THETA-E AXIS
STILL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO
BE A STRUGGLE TO GET CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...MUCH LESS RAIN SHOWERS.
VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF LOWER MI EARLY
SAT...EVENTUALLY REACHING QUEBEC AND UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SAT
EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MI
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SAT. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS FRONT WEAKENING/WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS
LOWER MI DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AS THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THIS WILL FAVOR THERMALLY
DRIVEN SFC TROUGHING...MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND TO SOME
EXTENT GFS APPEAR RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE POOLING
OVER CENTRAL MI. THIS LEADS TO A LITTLE BETTER CAPE AND CAUSES THESE
SOLUTIONS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. ADJUSTING SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN A
LITTLE AND CONSIDERING THAT BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SAT AFTERNOON
WILL SUPPORT SOME MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS JUST LATE DAY
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME MIXING DEPTHS SAT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO
SUN...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE THEN SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LATE
SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
MODEST WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING UPPER 80S BY
MONDAY.

A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IN THE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE THAT THE
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INTO SE MI. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
ADVECT INTO SE MI IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031613
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1213 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.AVIATION...

VERY DRY COLUMN WILL SUPPORT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN PASSING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ALASKAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ALL
WELL ABOVE 10KFT. CALM TO VARIABLE WIND WILL BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE DETROIT AREA THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...AS 00Z DTX SOUNDING
INDICATED A 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSION OF 30 C. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES/MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
GUIDANCE AND 925/850 MB TEMPS...18 C AND 12 C RESPECTIVELY...POINT
TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MAIN HINDRANCE...OUTSIDE OF
THE COOL START TO THE DAY (40S) WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS (25-40
KFT/MAINLY SOUTH) AS UPPER LEVEL JET (250 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY WITH MEAN 1000-500 MB RH AROUND 30 PERCENT.

TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WORKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE TO NO HEIGHT FALLS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND 850-700 MB THETA-E AXIS
STILL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO
BE A STRUGGLE TO GET CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...MUCH LESS RAIN SHOWERS.
VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF LOWER MI EARLY
SAT...EVENTUALLY REACHING QUEBEC AND UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SAT
EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MI
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SAT. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS FRONT WEAKENING/WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS
LOWER MI DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AS THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THIS WILL FAVOR THERMALLY
DRIVEN SFC TROUGHING...MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND TO SOME
EXTENT GFS APPEAR RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE POOLING
OVER CENTRAL MI. THIS LEADS TO A LITTLE BETTER CAPE AND CAUSES THESE
SOLUTIONS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. ADJUSTING SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN A
LITTLE AND CONSIDERING THAT BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SAT AFTERNOON
WILL SUPPORT SOME MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS JUST LATE DAY
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME MIXING DEPTHS SAT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO
SUN...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE THEN SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LATE
SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
MODEST WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING UPPER 80S BY
MONDAY.

A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IN THE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE THAT THE
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INTO SE MI. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
ADVECT INTO SE MI IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031613
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1213 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.AVIATION...

VERY DRY COLUMN WILL SUPPORT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN PASSING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ALASKAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ALL
WELL ABOVE 10KFT. CALM TO VARIABLE WIND WILL BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE DETROIT AREA THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...AS 00Z DTX SOUNDING
INDICATED A 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSION OF 30 C. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES/MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
GUIDANCE AND 925/850 MB TEMPS...18 C AND 12 C RESPECTIVELY...POINT
TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MAIN HINDRANCE...OUTSIDE OF
THE COOL START TO THE DAY (40S) WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS (25-40
KFT/MAINLY SOUTH) AS UPPER LEVEL JET (250 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY WITH MEAN 1000-500 MB RH AROUND 30 PERCENT.

TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WORKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE TO NO HEIGHT FALLS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND 850-700 MB THETA-E AXIS
STILL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO
BE A STRUGGLE TO GET CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...MUCH LESS RAIN SHOWERS.
VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF LOWER MI EARLY
SAT...EVENTUALLY REACHING QUEBEC AND UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SAT
EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MI
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SAT. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS FRONT WEAKENING/WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS
LOWER MI DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AS THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THIS WILL FAVOR THERMALLY
DRIVEN SFC TROUGHING...MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND TO SOME
EXTENT GFS APPEAR RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE POOLING
OVER CENTRAL MI. THIS LEADS TO A LITTLE BETTER CAPE AND CAUSES THESE
SOLUTIONS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. ADJUSTING SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN A
LITTLE AND CONSIDERING THAT BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SAT AFTERNOON
WILL SUPPORT SOME MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS JUST LATE DAY
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME MIXING DEPTHS SAT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO
SUN...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE THEN SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LATE
SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
MODEST WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING UPPER 80S BY
MONDAY.

A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IN THE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE THAT THE
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INTO SE MI. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
ADVECT INTO SE MI IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031536
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY FROM
AROUND 80 TODAY...TO THE LOWER 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY TO THE MIDDLE
80S ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR
SUMMER WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP THE
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ON THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING
AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVERGENCE ON
IT IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE GFS INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR MT PLEASANT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PULLING
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT...STILL FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PCT CHC OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE FOURTH.

OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANY PRECIP WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVES A BIT QUICKER...PROBABLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  CLIMATICALLY THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO IF THIS VERIFY WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT PROCEEDS THE
FRONT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SE CWA MID
DAY TUESDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  IT APPEARS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
TRAVELING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-
96 COULD SEE MORE RAIN MOVE IN...DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG WHERE A WEST WIND OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP...WINDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 20000FT OR ABOVE WILL DRIFT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF
4000-5000FT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KAZO AND KBTL. OTHERWISE...SOME
5000FT CEILINGS MAY PRESS INTO KMKG LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031536
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY FROM
AROUND 80 TODAY...TO THE LOWER 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY TO THE MIDDLE
80S ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR
SUMMER WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP THE
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ON THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING
AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVERGENCE ON
IT IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE GFS INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR MT PLEASANT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PULLING
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT...STILL FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PCT CHC OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE FOURTH.

OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANY PRECIP WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVES A BIT QUICKER...PROBABLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  CLIMATICALLY THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO IF THIS VERIFY WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT PROCEEDS THE
FRONT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SE CWA MID
DAY TUESDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  IT APPEARS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
TRAVELING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-
96 COULD SEE MORE RAIN MOVE IN...DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG WHERE A WEST WIND OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP...WINDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 20000FT OR ABOVE WILL DRIFT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF
4000-5000FT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KAZO AND KBTL. OTHERWISE...SOME
5000FT CEILINGS MAY PRESS INTO KMKG LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031536
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY FROM
AROUND 80 TODAY...TO THE LOWER 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY TO THE MIDDLE
80S ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR
SUMMER WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP THE
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ON THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING
AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVERGENCE ON
IT IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE GFS INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR MT PLEASANT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PULLING
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT...STILL FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PCT CHC OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE FOURTH.

OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANY PRECIP WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVES A BIT QUICKER...PROBABLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  CLIMATICALLY THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO IF THIS VERIFY WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT PROCEEDS THE
FRONT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SE CWA MID
DAY TUESDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  IT APPEARS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
TRAVELING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-
96 COULD SEE MORE RAIN MOVE IN...DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG WHERE A WEST WIND OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP...WINDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 20000FT OR ABOVE WILL DRIFT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF
4000-5000FT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KAZO AND KBTL. OTHERWISE...SOME
5000FT CEILINGS MAY PRESS INTO KMKG LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031536
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY FROM
AROUND 80 TODAY...TO THE LOWER 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY TO THE MIDDLE
80S ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR
SUMMER WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP THE
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ON THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING
AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVERGENCE ON
IT IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE GFS INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR MT PLEASANT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PULLING
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT...STILL FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PCT CHC OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE FOURTH.

OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANY PRECIP WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVES A BIT QUICKER...PROBABLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  CLIMATICALLY THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO IF THIS VERIFY WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT PROCEEDS THE
FRONT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SE CWA MID
DAY TUESDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  IT APPEARS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
TRAVELING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-
96 COULD SEE MORE RAIN MOVE IN...DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG WHERE A WEST WIND OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP...WINDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 20000FT OR ABOVE WILL DRIFT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF
4000-5000FT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KAZO AND KBTL. OTHERWISE...SOME
5000FT CEILINGS MAY PRESS INTO KMKG LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031422
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031422
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031422
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031422
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY FROM
AROUND 80 TODAY...TO THE LOWER 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY TO THE MIDDLE
80S ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR
SUMMER WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP THE
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ON THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING
AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVERGENCE ON
IT IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE GFS INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR MT PLEASANT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PULLING
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT...STILL FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PCT CHC OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE FOURTH.

OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANY PRECIP WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVES A BIT QUICKER...PROBABLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  CLIMATICALLY THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO IF THIS VERIFY WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT PROCEEDS THE
FRONT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SE CWA MID
DAY TUESDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  IT APPEARS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
TRAVELING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-
96 COULD SEE MORE RAIN MOVE IN...DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG WHERE A WEST WIND OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP...WINDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 20000FT OR ABOVE WILL DRIFT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF
4000-5000FT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KAZO AND KBTL. OTHERWISE...SOME
5000FT CEILINGS MAY PRESS INTO KMKG LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE KALAMAZOO RIVER NEAR COMSTOCK AND NEW RICHMOND IS FALLING BELOW
BANKFULL THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND SYCAMORE CREEK
NEAR HOLT ARE THE ONLY RIVERS THAT REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL... AND
LEVELS AT BOTH LOCATIONS ARE FALLING. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE DAY... WEATHER WILL STAY DRY UNTIL THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE



000
FXUS63 KGRR 031143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY FROM
AROUND 80 TODAY...TO THE LOWER 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY TO THE MIDDLE
80S ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR
SUMMER WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP THE
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ON THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING
AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVERGENCE ON
IT IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE GFS INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR MT PLEASANT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PULLING
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT...STILL FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PCT CHC OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE FOURTH.

OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANY PRECIP WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVES A BIT QUICKER...PROBABLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  CLIMATICALLY THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO IF THIS VERIFY WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT PROCEEDS THE
FRONT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SE CWA MID
DAY TUESDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  IT APPEARS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
TRAVELING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-
96 COULD SEE MORE RAIN MOVE IN...DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG WHERE A WEST WIND OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP...WINDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 20000FT OR ABOVE WILL DRIFT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF
4000-5000FT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KAZO AND KBTL. OTHERWISE...SOME
5000FT CEILINGS MAY PRESS INTO KMKG LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE KALAMAZOO RIVER NEAR COMSTOCK AND NEW RICHMOND IS FALLING BELOW
BANKFULL THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND SYCAMORE CREEK
NEAR HOLT ARE THE ONLY RIVERS THAT REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL... AND
LEVELS AT BOTH LOCATIONS ARE FALLING. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE DAY... WEATHER WILL STAY DRY UNTIL THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 031143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY FROM
AROUND 80 TODAY...TO THE LOWER 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY TO THE MIDDLE
80S ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR
SUMMER WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP THE
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ON THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING
AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVERGENCE ON
IT IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE GFS INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR MT PLEASANT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PULLING
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT...STILL FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PCT CHC OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE FOURTH.

OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANY PRECIP WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVES A BIT QUICKER...PROBABLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  CLIMATICALLY THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO IF THIS VERIFY WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT PROCEEDS THE
FRONT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SE CWA MID
DAY TUESDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  IT APPEARS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
TRAVELING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-
96 COULD SEE MORE RAIN MOVE IN...DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG WHERE A WEST WIND OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP...WINDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 20000FT OR ABOVE WILL DRIFT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF
4000-5000FT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KAZO AND KBTL. OTHERWISE...SOME
5000FT CEILINGS MAY PRESS INTO KMKG LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE KALAMAZOO RIVER NEAR COMSTOCK AND NEW RICHMOND IS FALLING BELOW
BANKFULL THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND SYCAMORE CREEK
NEAR HOLT ARE THE ONLY RIVERS THAT REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL... AND
LEVELS AT BOTH LOCATIONS ARE FALLING. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE DAY... WEATHER WILL STAY DRY UNTIL THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KMQT 031134
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
IMPACT KCMX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. WITH A DIMINISHING TREND NOTED AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ONLY VCTS WAS INCLUDED. PCPN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF
KIWD. NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN...AND MAY
AFFECT KIWD/KSAW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE/LOCATION...SO VCSH
WAS LARGELY UTILIZED. SHRA WILL END THIS EVENING. IF SHRA OCCUR AT
KIWD OR KSAW THIS AFTN...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031134
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
IMPACT KCMX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. WITH A DIMINISHING TREND NOTED AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ONLY VCTS WAS INCLUDED. PCPN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF
KIWD. NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN...AND MAY
AFFECT KIWD/KSAW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE/LOCATION...SO VCSH
WAS LARGELY UTILIZED. SHRA WILL END THIS EVENING. IF SHRA OCCUR AT
KIWD OR KSAW THIS AFTN...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031134
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
IMPACT KCMX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. WITH A DIMINISHING TREND NOTED AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ONLY VCTS WAS INCLUDED. PCPN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF
KIWD. NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN...AND MAY
AFFECT KIWD/KSAW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE/LOCATION...SO VCSH
WAS LARGELY UTILIZED. SHRA WILL END THIS EVENING. IF SHRA OCCUR AT
KIWD OR KSAW THIS AFTN...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031134
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
IMPACT KCMX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. WITH A DIMINISHING TREND NOTED AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ONLY VCTS WAS INCLUDED. PCPN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF
KIWD. NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN...AND MAY
AFFECT KIWD/KSAW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE/LOCATION...SO VCSH
WAS LARGELY UTILIZED. SHRA WILL END THIS EVENING. IF SHRA OCCUR AT
KIWD OR KSAW THIS AFTN...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



000
FXUS63 KMQT 031134
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
IMPACT KCMX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. WITH A DIMINISHING TREND NOTED AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ONLY VCTS WAS INCLUDED. PCPN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF
KIWD. NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN...AND MAY
AFFECT KIWD/KSAW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE/LOCATION...SO VCSH
WAS LARGELY UTILIZED. SHRA WILL END THIS EVENING. IF SHRA OCCUR AT
KIWD OR KSAW THIS AFTN...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031101
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL HOLD OVER THE
TAF PERIOD...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 15 KFT) AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...AS 00Z DTX SOUNDING
INDICATED A 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSION OF 30 C. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES/MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
GUIDANCE AND 925/850 MB TEMPS...18 C AND 12 C RESPECTIVELY...POINT
TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MAIN HINDRANCE...OUTSIDE OF
THE COOL START TO THE DAY (40S) WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS (25-40
KFT/MAINLY SOUTH) AS UPPER LEVEL JET (250 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY WITH MEAN 1000-500 MB RH AROUND 30 PERCENT.

TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WORKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE TO NO HEIGHT FALLS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND 850-700 MB THETA-E AXIS
STILL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO
BE A STRUGGLE TO GET CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...MUCH LESS RAIN SHOWERS.
VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF LOWER MI EARLY
SAT...EVENTUALLY REACHING QUEBEC AND UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SAT
EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MI
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SAT. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS FRONT WEAKENING/WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS
LOWER MI DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AS THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THIS WILL FAVOR THERMALLY
DRIVEN SFC TROUGHING...MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND TO SOME
EXTENT GFS APPEAR RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE POOLING
OVER CENTRAL MI. THIS LEADS TO A LITTLE BETTER CAPE AND CAUSES THESE
SOLUTIONS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. ADJUSTING SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN A
LITTLE AND CONSIDERING THAT BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SAT AFTERNOON
WILL SUPPORT SOME MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS JUST LATE DAY
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME MIXING DEPTHS SAT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO
SUN...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE THEN SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LATE
SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
MODEST WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING UPPER 80S BY
MONDAY.

A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IN THE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE THAT THE
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INTO SE MI. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
ADVECT INTO SE MI IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 031101
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL HOLD OVER THE
TAF PERIOD...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 15 KFT) AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...AS 00Z DTX SOUNDING
INDICATED A 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSION OF 30 C. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES/MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
GUIDANCE AND 925/850 MB TEMPS...18 C AND 12 C RESPECTIVELY...POINT
TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MAIN HINDRANCE...OUTSIDE OF
THE COOL START TO THE DAY (40S) WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS (25-40
KFT/MAINLY SOUTH) AS UPPER LEVEL JET (250 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY WITH MEAN 1000-500 MB RH AROUND 30 PERCENT.

TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WORKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE TO NO HEIGHT FALLS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND 850-700 MB THETA-E AXIS
STILL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO
BE A STRUGGLE TO GET CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...MUCH LESS RAIN SHOWERS.
VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF LOWER MI EARLY
SAT...EVENTUALLY REACHING QUEBEC AND UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SAT
EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MI
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SAT. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS FRONT WEAKENING/WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS
LOWER MI DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AS THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THIS WILL FAVOR THERMALLY
DRIVEN SFC TROUGHING...MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND TO SOME
EXTENT GFS APPEAR RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE POOLING
OVER CENTRAL MI. THIS LEADS TO A LITTLE BETTER CAPE AND CAUSES THESE
SOLUTIONS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. ADJUSTING SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN A
LITTLE AND CONSIDERING THAT BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SAT AFTERNOON
WILL SUPPORT SOME MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS JUST LATE DAY
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME MIXING DEPTHS SAT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO
SUN...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE THEN SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LATE
SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
MODEST WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING UPPER 80S BY
MONDAY.

A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IN THE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE THAT THE
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INTO SE MI. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
ADVECT INTO SE MI IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031040
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031040
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031040
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031040
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030858
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS...BUT TS
CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SCT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KIWD AND KSAW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030858
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS...BUT TS
CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SCT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KIWD AND KSAW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030858
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS...BUT TS
CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SCT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KIWD AND KSAW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030858
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS...BUT TS
CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SCT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KIWD AND KSAW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS T