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000
FXUS63 KMQT 300527
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 RAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FAIRLY SOON ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS DRIER AIR PER 00Z INL RAOB MOVES AND SUBSIDENCE INTO
THE AREA. REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED. EXPECT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE DRIER PBL AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKE MOVES ACROSS.

STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH. ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND. THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION AND
IFR CIGS AT SAW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LEADING TO A GENERALLY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. THERE MAY BE SOME NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 20 KT AT SAW...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>251-265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300527
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 RAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FAIRLY SOON ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS DRIER AIR PER 00Z INL RAOB MOVES AND SUBSIDENCE INTO
THE AREA. REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED. EXPECT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE DRIER PBL AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKE MOVES ACROSS.

STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH. ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND. THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION AND
IFR CIGS AT SAW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LEADING TO A GENERALLY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. THERE MAY BE SOME NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 20 KT AT SAW...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>251-265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLB


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRR 300425
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1225 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COULD BE RATHER WET AS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S DESPITE SUNSHINE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-46 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 70S BY TUESDAY AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR IT/S BEEN LOW-TOPPED WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING.
THE STRONGER CELLS ARE CLOSER TO ST LOUIS MO BUT ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT
MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LI/S NEAR
-3 ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ATTM COUPLED WITH 1K J/K SBCAPE BUT NOT
MUCH TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WITH HELP TO FOCUS PCPN LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR POST FRONTAL. A 300 MB
JETLET SEEMS TO BE THE CAUSE OF THIS AS IT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN UPPER
JET FARTHER NORTH. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WAVE WILL CAUSE MORE PCPN OVER THE SRN CWA.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR SMALL ATTM DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD BE A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ...THERE IS LITTLE TO
FOCUS ANY CONVECTION AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THAT SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND FILLS AND A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE KLAN TERMINAL
BETWEEN 0430Z AND 06Z EARLY THIS MORNING.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY DUE TO LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS AND STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM PRIMARILY IFR TO MVFR
SATURDAY EVENING AS RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CIGS/VISBYS SLOWLY
IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY. LOOK FOR WAVES TO BUILD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A SCA
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA TO BELOW NORMAL SOUTHEAST. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND A HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS INCH. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS
OF ABOUT 2 INCHES WOULD BE NECESSARY TO PUSH SEVERAL OF THE MID-
MICHIGAN RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300425
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1225 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COULD BE RATHER WET AS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S DESPITE SUNSHINE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-46 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 70S BY TUESDAY AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR IT/S BEEN LOW-TOPPED WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING.
THE STRONGER CELLS ARE CLOSER TO ST LOUIS MO BUT ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT
MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LI/S NEAR
-3 ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ATTM COUPLED WITH 1K J/K SBCAPE BUT NOT
MUCH TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WITH HELP TO FOCUS PCPN LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR POST FRONTAL. A 300 MB
JETLET SEEMS TO BE THE CAUSE OF THIS AS IT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN UPPER
JET FARTHER NORTH. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WAVE WILL CAUSE MORE PCPN OVER THE SRN CWA.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR SMALL ATTM DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD BE A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ...THERE IS LITTLE TO
FOCUS ANY CONVECTION AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THAT SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND FILLS AND A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE KLAN TERMINAL
BETWEEN 0430Z AND 06Z EARLY THIS MORNING.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY DUE TO LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS AND STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM PRIMARILY IFR TO MVFR
SATURDAY EVENING AS RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CIGS/VISBYS SLOWLY
IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY. LOOK FOR WAVES TO BUILD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A SCA
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA TO BELOW NORMAL SOUTHEAST. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND A HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS INCH. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS
OF ABOUT 2 INCHES WOULD BE NECESSARY TO PUSH SEVERAL OF THE MID-
MICHIGAN RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 300425
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1225 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COULD BE RATHER WET AS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S DESPITE SUNSHINE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-46 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 70S BY TUESDAY AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR IT/S BEEN LOW-TOPPED WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING.
THE STRONGER CELLS ARE CLOSER TO ST LOUIS MO BUT ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT
MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LI/S NEAR
-3 ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ATTM COUPLED WITH 1K J/K SBCAPE BUT NOT
MUCH TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WITH HELP TO FOCUS PCPN LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR POST FRONTAL. A 300 MB
JETLET SEEMS TO BE THE CAUSE OF THIS AS IT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN UPPER
JET FARTHER NORTH. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WAVE WILL CAUSE MORE PCPN OVER THE SRN CWA.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR SMALL ATTM DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD BE A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ...THERE IS LITTLE TO
FOCUS ANY CONVECTION AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THAT SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND FILLS AND A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE KLAN TERMINAL
BETWEEN 0430Z AND 06Z EARLY THIS MORNING.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY DUE TO LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS AND STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM PRIMARILY IFR TO MVFR
SATURDAY EVENING AS RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CIGS/VISBYS SLOWLY
IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY. LOOK FOR WAVES TO BUILD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A SCA
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA TO BELOW NORMAL SOUTHEAST. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND A HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS INCH. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS
OF ABOUT 2 INCHES WOULD BE NECESSARY TO PUSH SEVERAL OF THE MID-
MICHIGAN RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 300358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE GREATEST COVERAGE IN
THE MBS TO FNT TERMINAL AREAS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF THE COLD FRONT DURING
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES BY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FAVORS LOCATIONS FROM
FNT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DTW CORRIDOR AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. IFR CEILING AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR DTW... THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRUSH THROUGH DTW DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE ON THE QUIET SIDE UNTIL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS RAMPS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PEAKS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LOOKS SOLID AT 22Z WITH
IFR CEILING LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
  SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MEDIUM DURING THE
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1032 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPDATE...

THE TRI CITIES...NORTHERN THUMB...DOWN TO ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 69
CORRIDOR WILL BE THE AREA REMAINING MOST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY IS ON THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER AT
PRESS TIME. HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE STILL HANGING IN
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE SO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD
JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MODEL DEPICTIONS INDICATE 850 MB LI RISING ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT AS
AN INDICATION THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR
NO MORE THAN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER UNTIL LATE MORNING. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET STORMS GOING AGAIN
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
PROBABILITY IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE LOOKS SOLID
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
MOVED ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THESE
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT TODAY AND ARE NOW JUST STARTING TO THIN
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING.  TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE
CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA.  THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING.  THIS ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GOING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...TRI-CITIES AREA...AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE HOWEVER
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1
INCH.  GIVEN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A WARM MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT TEMPS TONIGHT TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS
ONLY DROPPING DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PROBABLY FOR RAIN
REMAINS HIGH HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOW WITH TIMING
THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...WHICH BLEEDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL NOW.

UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES EAST. RESULT WILL BE A
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY TOMORROW. SMALLER UPPER WAVES
LIFTING UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WILL HELP GENERATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE WAVES ARE HARDER TO TIME IN GENERAL BECAUSE OF THEIR
SMALLER SCALE...ESPECIALLY WHEN SOME ARE GENERATED/AFFECTED BY
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE HOW THESE
WAVES WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND THE
STRONG UPPER WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. GFS/NAM
REMAIN MORE IN LINE WITH THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY
THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WHILE THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY
THE NEW 12Z EURO ALLOW IT TO SLIP UP CLOSER TO OR EVEN INTO MICHIGAN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND SCENARIO WOULD DELAY THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...KEEPING IT POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
LONGER AND KEEPING RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...INITIAL SET-UP LOOKS THE SAME TO START SATURDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES
RISING JUST ABOVE 1.75 INCHES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHAT REMAINS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA SHOULD WORK
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DROP SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING.
EXPECTATION IS THAT FGEN AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING WILL HELP
PROVIDE A MORE SOLID AREA OF LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROADER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. THUNDER MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT THERE
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY STRONG FROM M-59
SOUTH...TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT TO BECOME STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MI MONDAY WILL REINFORCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO ANOTHER COOLER-THAN-NORMAL DAY BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE A DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED. HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING TO A NICE WARMING
TREND. SPRAWLING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
SET UP THURSDAY FRIDAY WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SIGNAL WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR NOW.

MARINE...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
THEY START TO FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT
WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE IN SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN
AND INCREASES INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY AS
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND ALLOW HIGHER WAVES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KAPX 300348
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1148 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

OVERVIEW: EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRETCHED OUT COLD FRONT
AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION FROM EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN
THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO IOWA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS THE NRN LAKES WITH A BATCH
OF POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN MOVING INTO WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FAIRLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS SPANNING THE 60S. SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO RUN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ONE EXITING THE LAKE HURON COAST AND A SECOND MOVING UP
THROUGH THE SW COUNTIES OF THIS CWA. STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
BENIGN.

REST OF THE NIGHT...POCKETS OF SHOWERS/SOME THUNDER WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...WHILE
NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/SOME THUNDER ADVANCES INTO EASTERN
UPPER. COLD FRONT AND ATTENDING LINE OF SHOWERS WILL SAG DOWN
THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY
06Z TO 12Z...ALSO BRINGING A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG AS A COOLER AIRMASS UNDERCUTS THE WARMER/HUMID
AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...STILL ANTICIPATE
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET STREAK BEHIND THE FRONT STRENGTHENS
AND SLIDES UP THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. GOING FORECAST PRETTY MUCH
HAD THIS IDEA WITH JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE ON MY PART.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AT THIS HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE AND ATTENDANT
DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/WARMTH HAS DESTABILIZED THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AIRMASS...WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE NOTED ON
LOCAL ANALYSIS. INITIAL VORT LOBE/CONGEALED COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HELPED IGNITE A RATHER VIGOROUS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE REALLY CONFINED ALL INTENSE CORES TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...NEGATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG...BUT BRIEF...
SUBSIDENCE REGIME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LINE HELPING QUELL ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

ABOVE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KICKING OFF ADDITION RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES
SO.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. ADDRESSING LOW END SEVERE
CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TWO PART PROCESS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WELL ORGANIZED SUBSIDENCE
REGIME WEST OF ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION MAY SUPPRESS THINGS FOR A
WHILE...EVENING PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE THE SUN
SETS. WOULD EXPECT BEST FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS ELEVATED CORE
POTENTIAL. DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ATTENDANT WET MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. OF COURSE...NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ONE OF THESE
WIND GUSTS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...OCCURRING BEHIND ACTUAL FRONT IN REGION OF INTENSIFYING RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT INCREASING FGEN SIGNATURES. BEST
MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY LOST...BUT DYNAMICS DEFINITELY
THERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. WILL ATTEMPT
SOME TIMING OF THIS STEADIER RAIN POTENTIAL...SWIPING CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SPLIT WEEKEND WITH WET WEATHER SATURDAY/DRY AND COOL SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSES FROM
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATELINE...TO A SPLIT/BLOCKY
(STRONG -EPO) PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH AMERICA.  NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
CONFINED NORTH OF THE BORDER...WITH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER 48.  WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DIGGING SOUTHEAST...WITH
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROLLING INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS...
WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 60S DEW POINTS INTO
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO "SCRAPE" BY THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY...WITH A GENERALLY
PACIFIC-DOMINATED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES/
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY WITH FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER LAKES FOR MONDAY.
NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE WILL PUSH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1028+MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING HANGING
ON FOR MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO QUEBEC.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  RAIN SATURDAY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF A
LINGERING WIND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITHIN FRONTAL CIRCULATION
AND AIDED BY JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY SO WILL
PROBABLY COMPROMISE/SMOOTH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL
TREND KEEPING RAIN GOING A LITTLE LONGER IN SPOTS.  RAIN PROBABLY
WON`T END NEAR SAGINAW BAY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-32
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SOUTH OF A HOUGHTON LAKE-HARRISVILLE LINE.  CLOUDS WILL THIN BEHIND
THE RAIN BAND...WITH INCREASING SUN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR
FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED
WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MATTERS.  AS CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COME INTO
FOCUS IN COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.  ONE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHETHER WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS CAN SLACK OFF.
ONE ISSUE WILL BE LOCATION OF COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING EXIT
REGION DYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE BOUNDARY`S SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND KEEP SOME GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TREND AWAY FROM FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FOR
NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS.  WILL STILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY ABOVE THE BRIDGE WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL
SLACK OFF OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE A CHILLY WIND OFF LAKE
HURON WON`T HELP...AND 60-65 ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (NORMAL HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM 67-70).  COOL START TO THE NIGHT WILL RAISE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING...STILL SOME ISSUES
WITH WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE THEN CAN
SEE SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN NEAR
FREEZING LOWS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC.  DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MID CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE TO THE
AREA.  MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO SPEAK OF...POSSIBLY SOME
FROST?

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY QUIET. THE EURO SHOWS OUR PERIOD
BEGINNING WITH THE PASSING OF A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH NO MOISTURE (OR ANY OTHER SUPPORT)
TO WORK WITH...SHOULD GO BY UNNOTICED. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY...THATS WHEN OUR RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN AMBITIOUS TO BRING POPS
IN LATELY...ALL TO RESULT IN NOT. GUT FEELING IS...MORE CONFIDENT
THAT WE WONT SEE ANY ACTUAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY TO BLEND WITH OTHERS...AS THIS
IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WITH A VERY SHARP DIURNAL DIP ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
IN THE WHEELHOUSE FOR EARLY JUNE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO START ADVANCING THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RUN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN
THE FAIRLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWER CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO SNEAK INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE
AND THAT WILL BE TREND THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
(BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z). WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE WARMER/HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF IFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME FOG/MIST
BRINGING REDUCED VSBYS. MEANWHILE...WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 06Z. BUT STRONG UPPER JET
STREAK RIDES UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT
THAT WILL SPREAD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN COOLER/MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING QUICK IMPROVEMENT ON
SATURDAY WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT. INITIAL SOUTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY VEER NORTHWEST IN THE PROCESS...BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY
BY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SCA PRODUCING WINDS AND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 300247
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 RAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FAIRLY SOON ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS DRIER AIR PER 00Z INL RAOB MOVES AND SUBSIDENCE INTO
THE AREA. REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED. EXPECT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE DRIER PBL AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKE MOVES ACROSS.

STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH. ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WORST CONDITIONS TO BE AT SAW AND IWD...WHILE CMX MAY BE SPARED THE
WORST CONDITIONS DUE TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND GENERALLY BEING
DOWSLOPE COMPONENT. THUNDER MOST LIKELY DONE AT ALL SITES FOR
TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MORNING AND REMAIN VFR ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ248>251-
     265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 300247
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 RAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FAIRLY SOON ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS DRIER AIR PER 00Z INL RAOB MOVES AND SUBSIDENCE INTO
THE AREA. REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED. EXPECT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE DRIER PBL AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKE MOVES ACROSS.

STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH. ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WORST CONDITIONS TO BE AT SAW AND IWD...WHILE CMX MAY BE SPARED THE
WORST CONDITIONS DUE TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND GENERALLY BEING
DOWSLOPE COMPONENT. THUNDER MOST LIKELY DONE AT ALL SITES FOR
TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MORNING AND REMAIN VFR ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ248>251-
     265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300247
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 RAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FAIRLY SOON ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS DRIER AIR PER 00Z INL RAOB MOVES AND SUBSIDENCE INTO
THE AREA. REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED. EXPECT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE DRIER PBL AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKE MOVES ACROSS.

STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH. ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WORST CONDITIONS TO BE AT SAW AND IWD...WHILE CMX MAY BE SPARED THE
WORST CONDITIONS DUE TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND GENERALLY BEING
DOWSLOPE COMPONENT. THUNDER MOST LIKELY DONE AT ALL SITES FOR
TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MORNING AND REMAIN VFR ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ248>251-
     265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300247
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 RAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FAIRLY SOON ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS DRIER AIR PER 00Z INL RAOB MOVES AND SUBSIDENCE INTO
THE AREA. REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED. EXPECT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE DRIER PBL AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKE MOVES ACROSS.

STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH. ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WORST CONDITIONS TO BE AT SAW AND IWD...WHILE CMX MAY BE SPARED THE
WORST CONDITIONS DUE TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND GENERALLY BEING
DOWSLOPE COMPONENT. THUNDER MOST LIKELY DONE AT ALL SITES FOR
TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MORNING AND REMAIN VFR ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ248>251-
     265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300247
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 RAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FAIRLY SOON ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS DRIER AIR PER 00Z INL RAOB MOVES AND SUBSIDENCE INTO
THE AREA. REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED. EXPECT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE DRIER PBL AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKE MOVES ACROSS.

STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH. ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WORST CONDITIONS TO BE AT SAW AND IWD...WHILE CMX MAY BE SPARED THE
WORST CONDITIONS DUE TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND GENERALLY BEING
DOWSLOPE COMPONENT. THUNDER MOST LIKELY DONE AT ALL SITES FOR
TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MORNING AND REMAIN VFR ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ248>251-
     265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300247
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 RAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FAIRLY SOON ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS DRIER AIR PER 00Z INL RAOB MOVES AND SUBSIDENCE INTO
THE AREA. REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED. EXPECT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE DRIER PBL AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKE MOVES ACROSS.

STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH. ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WORST CONDITIONS TO BE AT SAW AND IWD...WHILE CMX MAY BE SPARED THE
WORST CONDITIONS DUE TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND GENERALLY BEING
DOWSLOPE COMPONENT. THUNDER MOST LIKELY DONE AT ALL SITES FOR
TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MORNING AND REMAIN VFR ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ248>251-
     265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KDTX 300232
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1032 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

THE TRI CITIES...NORTHERN THUMB...DOWN TO ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 69
CORRIDOR WILL BE THE AREA REMAINING MOST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY IS ON THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER AT
PRESS TIME. HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE STILL HANGING IN
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE SO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD
JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MODEL DEPICTIONS INDICATE 850 MB LI RISING ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT AS
AN INDICATION THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR
NO MORE THAN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER UNTIL LATE MORNING. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET STORMS GOING AGAIN
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
PROBABILITY IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE LOOKS SOLID
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 657 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FROM MBS TO FNT DURING EARLY
EVENING WILL BRUSH PTK AS WELL. THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONSIDERING HOW FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN DETECTED DURING PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE MBS TO FNT AREA WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. THE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN WILL REQUIRE FREQUENT UPDATES FOR TIMING AND
INTENSITY REFINEMENTS AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A GENERAL TREND TOWARD INCREASING COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN DURING SATURDAY. IFR CEILING AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LASTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR DTW... THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD PTK DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A
PASSING SHOWER DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT JUDGING BY THE LACK OF
ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RAMP UP DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND PEAK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR CEILING AND NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LOOKS
SOLID WITH A 22Z FRONTAL PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
  SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MEDIUM SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
MOVED ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THESE
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT TODAY AND ARE NOW JUST STARTING TO THIN
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING.  TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE
CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA.  THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING.  THIS ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GOING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...TRI-CITIES AREA...AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE HOWEVER
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1
INCH.  GIVEN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A WARM MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT TEMPS TONIGHT TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS
ONLY DROPPING DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PROBABLY FOR RAIN
REMAINS HIGH HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOW WITH TIMING
THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...WHICH BLEEDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL NOW.

UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES EAST. RESULT WILL BE A
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY TOMORROW. SMALLER UPPER WAVES
LIFTING UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WILL HELP GENERATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE WAVES ARE HARDER TO TIME IN GENERAL BECAUSE OF THEIR
SMALLER SCALE...ESPECIALLY WHEN SOME ARE GENERATED/AFFECTED BY
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE HOW THESE
WAVES WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND THE
STRONG UPPER WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. GFS/NAM
REMAIN MORE IN LINE WITH THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY
THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WHILE THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY
THE NEW 12Z EURO ALLOW IT TO SLIP UP CLOSER TO OR EVEN INTO MICHIGAN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND SCENARIO WOULD DELAY THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...KEEPING IT POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
LONGER AND KEEPING RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...INITIAL SET-UP LOOKS THE SAME TO START SATURDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES
RISING JUST ABOVE 1.75 INCHES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHAT REMAINS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA SHOULD WORK
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DROP SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING.
EXPECTATION IS THAT FGEN AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING WILL HELP
PROVIDE A MORE SOLID AREA OF LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROADER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. THUNDER MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT THERE
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY STRONG FROM M-59
SOUTH...TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT TO BECOME STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MI MONDAY WILL REINFORCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO ANOTHER COOLER-THAN-NORMAL DAY BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE A DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED. HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING TO A NICE WARMING
TREND. SPRAWLING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
SET UP THURSDAY FRIDAY WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SIGNAL WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR NOW.

MARINE...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
THEY START TO FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT
WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE IN SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN
AND INCREASES INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY AS
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND ALLOW HIGHER WAVES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 300232
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1032 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

THE TRI CITIES...NORTHERN THUMB...DOWN TO ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 69
CORRIDOR WILL BE THE AREA REMAINING MOST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY IS ON THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER AT
PRESS TIME. HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE STILL HANGING IN
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE SO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD
JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MODEL DEPICTIONS INDICATE 850 MB LI RISING ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT AS
AN INDICATION THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR
NO MORE THAN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER UNTIL LATE MORNING. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET STORMS GOING AGAIN
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
PROBABILITY IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE LOOKS SOLID
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 657 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FROM MBS TO FNT DURING EARLY
EVENING WILL BRUSH PTK AS WELL. THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONSIDERING HOW FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN DETECTED DURING PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE MBS TO FNT AREA WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. THE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN WILL REQUIRE FREQUENT UPDATES FOR TIMING AND
INTENSITY REFINEMENTS AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A GENERAL TREND TOWARD INCREASING COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN DURING SATURDAY. IFR CEILING AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LASTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR DTW... THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD PTK DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A
PASSING SHOWER DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT JUDGING BY THE LACK OF
ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RAMP UP DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND PEAK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR CEILING AND NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LOOKS
SOLID WITH A 22Z FRONTAL PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
  SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MEDIUM SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
MOVED ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THESE
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT TODAY AND ARE NOW JUST STARTING TO THIN
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING.  TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE
CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA.  THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING.  THIS ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GOING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...TRI-CITIES AREA...AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE HOWEVER
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1
INCH.  GIVEN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A WARM MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT TEMPS TONIGHT TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS
ONLY DROPPING DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PROBABLY FOR RAIN
REMAINS HIGH HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOW WITH TIMING
THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...WHICH BLEEDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL NOW.

UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES EAST. RESULT WILL BE A
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY TOMORROW. SMALLER UPPER WAVES
LIFTING UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WILL HELP GENERATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE WAVES ARE HARDER TO TIME IN GENERAL BECAUSE OF THEIR
SMALLER SCALE...ESPECIALLY WHEN SOME ARE GENERATED/AFFECTED BY
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE HOW THESE
WAVES WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND THE
STRONG UPPER WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. GFS/NAM
REMAIN MORE IN LINE WITH THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY
THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WHILE THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY
THE NEW 12Z EURO ALLOW IT TO SLIP UP CLOSER TO OR EVEN INTO MICHIGAN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND SCENARIO WOULD DELAY THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...KEEPING IT POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
LONGER AND KEEPING RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...INITIAL SET-UP LOOKS THE SAME TO START SATURDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES
RISING JUST ABOVE 1.75 INCHES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHAT REMAINS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA SHOULD WORK
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DROP SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING.
EXPECTATION IS THAT FGEN AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING WILL HELP
PROVIDE A MORE SOLID AREA OF LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROADER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. THUNDER MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT THERE
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY STRONG FROM M-59
SOUTH...TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT TO BECOME STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MI MONDAY WILL REINFORCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO ANOTHER COOLER-THAN-NORMAL DAY BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE A DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED. HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING TO A NICE WARMING
TREND. SPRAWLING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
SET UP THURSDAY FRIDAY WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SIGNAL WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR NOW.

MARINE...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
THEY START TO FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT
WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE IN SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN
AND INCREASES INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY AS
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND ALLOW HIGHER WAVES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 300232
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1032 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

THE TRI CITIES...NORTHERN THUMB...DOWN TO ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 69
CORRIDOR WILL BE THE AREA REMAINING MOST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY IS ON THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER AT
PRESS TIME. HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE STILL HANGING IN
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE SO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD
JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MODEL DEPICTIONS INDICATE 850 MB LI RISING ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT AS
AN INDICATION THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR
NO MORE THAN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER UNTIL LATE MORNING. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET STORMS GOING AGAIN
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
PROBABILITY IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE LOOKS SOLID
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 657 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FROM MBS TO FNT DURING EARLY
EVENING WILL BRUSH PTK AS WELL. THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONSIDERING HOW FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN DETECTED DURING PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE MBS TO FNT AREA WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. THE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN WILL REQUIRE FREQUENT UPDATES FOR TIMING AND
INTENSITY REFINEMENTS AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A GENERAL TREND TOWARD INCREASING COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN DURING SATURDAY. IFR CEILING AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LASTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR DTW... THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD PTK DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A
PASSING SHOWER DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT JUDGING BY THE LACK OF
ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RAMP UP DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND PEAK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR CEILING AND NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LOOKS
SOLID WITH A 22Z FRONTAL PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
  SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MEDIUM SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
MOVED ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THESE
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT TODAY AND ARE NOW JUST STARTING TO THIN
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING.  TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE
CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA.  THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING.  THIS ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GOING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...TRI-CITIES AREA...AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE HOWEVER
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1
INCH.  GIVEN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A WARM MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT TEMPS TONIGHT TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS
ONLY DROPPING DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PROBABLY FOR RAIN
REMAINS HIGH HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOW WITH TIMING
THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...WHICH BLEEDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL NOW.

UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES EAST. RESULT WILL BE A
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY TOMORROW. SMALLER UPPER WAVES
LIFTING UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WILL HELP GENERATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE WAVES ARE HARDER TO TIME IN GENERAL BECAUSE OF THEIR
SMALLER SCALE...ESPECIALLY WHEN SOME ARE GENERATED/AFFECTED BY
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE HOW THESE
WAVES WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND THE
STRONG UPPER WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. GFS/NAM
REMAIN MORE IN LINE WITH THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY
THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WHILE THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY
THE NEW 12Z EURO ALLOW IT TO SLIP UP CLOSER TO OR EVEN INTO MICHIGAN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND SCENARIO WOULD DELAY THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...KEEPING IT POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
LONGER AND KEEPING RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...INITIAL SET-UP LOOKS THE SAME TO START SATURDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES
RISING JUST ABOVE 1.75 INCHES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHAT REMAINS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA SHOULD WORK
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DROP SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING.
EXPECTATION IS THAT FGEN AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING WILL HELP
PROVIDE A MORE SOLID AREA OF LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROADER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. THUNDER MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT THERE
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY STRONG FROM M-59
SOUTH...TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT TO BECOME STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MI MONDAY WILL REINFORCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO ANOTHER COOLER-THAN-NORMAL DAY BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE A DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED. HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING TO A NICE WARMING
TREND. SPRAWLING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
SET UP THURSDAY FRIDAY WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SIGNAL WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR NOW.

MARINE...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
THEY START TO FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT
WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE IN SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN
AND INCREASES INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY AS
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND ALLOW HIGHER WAVES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 300133
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
933 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

OVERVIEW: EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRETCHED OUT COLD FRONT
AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION FROM EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN
THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO IOWA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS THE NRN LAKES WITH A BATCH
OF POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN MOIVING INTO WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FAIRLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS SPANNING THE 60S. SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO RUN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ONE EXITING THE LAKE HURON COAST AND A SECOND MOVING UP
THROUGH THE SW COUNTIES OF THIS CWA. STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
BENIGN.

REST OF THE NIGHT...POCKETS OF SHOWERS/SOME THUNDER WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...WHILE
NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/SOME THUNDER ADVANCES INTO EASTERN
UPPER. COLD FRONT AND ATTENDING LINE OF SHOWERS WILL SAG DOWN
THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY
06Z TO 12Z...ALSO BRINGING A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG AS A COOLER AIRMASS UNDERCUTS THE WARMER/HUMID
AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...STILL ANTICIPATE
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET STREAK BEHIND THE FRONT STRENGTHENS
AND SLIDES UP THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. GOING FORECAST PRETTY MUCH
HAD THIS IDEA WITH JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE ON MY PART.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AT THIS HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE AND ATTENDANT
DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/WARMTH HAS DESTABILIZED THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AIRMASS...WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE NOTED ON
LOCAL ANALYSIS. INITIAL VORT LOBE/CONGEALED COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HELPED IGNITE A RATHER VIGOROUS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE REALLY CONFINED ALL INTENSE CORES TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...NEGATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG...BUT BRIEF...
SUBSIDENCE REGIME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LINE HELPING QUELL ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

ABOVE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KICKING OFF ADDITION RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES
SO.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. ADDRESSING LOW END SEVERE
CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TWO PART PROCESS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WELL ORGANIZED SUBSIDENCE
REGIME WEST OF ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION MAY SUPPRESS THINGS FOR A
WHILE...EVENING PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE THE SUN
SETS. WOULD EXPECT BEST FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS ELEVATED CORE
POTENTIAL. DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ATTENDANT WET MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. OF COURSE...NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ONE OF THESE
WIND GUSTS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...OCCURRING BEHIND ACTUAL FRONT IN REGION OF INTENSIFYING RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT INCREASING FGEN SIGNATURES. BEST
MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY LOST...BUT DYNAMICS DEFINITELY
THERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. WILL ATTEMPT
SOME TIMING OF THIS STEADIER RAIN POTENTIAL...SWIPING CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SPLIT WEEKEND WITH WET WEATHER SATURDAY/DRY AND COOL SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSES FROM
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATELINE...TO A SPLIT/BLOCKY
(STRONG -EPO) PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH AMERICA.  NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
CONFINED NORTH OF THE BORDER...WITH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER 48.  WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DIGGING SOUTHEAST...WITH
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROLLING INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS...
WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 60S DEW POINTS INTO
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO "SCRAPE" BY THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY...WITH A GENERALLY
PACIFIC-DOMINATED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES/
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY WITH FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER LAKES FOR MONDAY.
NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE WILL PUSH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1028+MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING HANGING
ON FOR MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO QUEBEC.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  RAIN SATURDAY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF A
LINGERING WIND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITHIN FRONTAL CIRCULATION
AND AIDED BY JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY SO WILL
PROBABLY COMPROMISE/SMOOTH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL
TREND KEEPING RAIN GOING A LITTLE LONGER IN SPOTS.  RAIN PROBABLY
WON`T END NEAR SAGINAW BAY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-32
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SOUTH OF A HOUGHTON LAKE-HARRISVILLE LINE.  CLOUDS WILL THIN BEHIND
THE RAIN BAND...WITH INCREASING SUN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR
FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED
WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MATTERS.  AS CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COME INTO
FOCUS IN COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.  ONE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHETHER WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS CAN SLACK OFF.
ONE ISSUE WILL BE LOCATION OF COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING EXIT
REGION DYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE BOUNDARY`S SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND KEEP SOME GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TREND AWAY FROM FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FOR
NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS.  WILL STILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY ABOVE THE BRIDGE WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL
SLACK OFF OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE A CHILLY WIND OFF LAKE
HURON WON`T HELP...AND 60-65 ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (NORMAL HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM 67-70).  COOL START TO THE NIGHT WILL RAISE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING...STILL SOME ISSUES
WITH WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE THEN CAN
SEE SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN NEAR
FREEZING LOWS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC.  DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MID CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE TO THE
AREA.  MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO SPEAK OF...POSSIBLY SOME
FROST?

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY QUIET. THE EURO SHOWS OUR PERIOD
BEGINNING WITH THE PASSING OF A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH NO MOISTURE (OR ANY OTHER SUPPORT)
TO WORK WITH...SHOULD GO BY UNNOTICED. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY...THATS WHEN OUR RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN AMBITIOUS TO BRING POPS
IN LATELY...ALL TO RESULT IN NOT. GUT FEELING IS...MORE CONFIDENT
THAT WE WONT SEE ANY ACTUAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY TO BLEND WITH OTHERS...AS THIS
IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WITH A VERY SHARP DIURNAL DIP ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
IN THE WHEELHOUSE FOR EARLY JUNE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO RUN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE FAIRLY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...SAVE FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
(BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z). WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE WARMER/HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF IFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PERHAPS SOME FOG.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RIDES UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN COOLER/MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING QUICK IMPROVEMENT ON
SATURDAY WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT. INITIAL SOUTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY VEER NORTHWEST IN THE PROCESS...BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY
BY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SCA PRODUCING WINDS AND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 300133
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
933 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

OVERVIEW: EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRETCHED OUT COLD FRONT
AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION FROM EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN
THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO IOWA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS THE NRN LAKES WITH A BATCH
OF POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN MOIVING INTO WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FAIRLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS SPANNING THE 60S. SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO RUN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ONE EXITING THE LAKE HURON COAST AND A SECOND MOVING UP
THROUGH THE SW COUNTIES OF THIS CWA. STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
BENIGN.

REST OF THE NIGHT...POCKETS OF SHOWERS/SOME THUNDER WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...WHILE
NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/SOME THUNDER ADVANCES INTO EASTERN
UPPER. COLD FRONT AND ATTENDING LINE OF SHOWERS WILL SAG DOWN
THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY
06Z TO 12Z...ALSO BRINGING A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG AS A COOLER AIRMASS UNDERCUTS THE WARMER/HUMID
AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...STILL ANTICIPATE
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET STREAK BEHIND THE FRONT STRENGTHENS
AND SLIDES UP THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. GOING FORECAST PRETTY MUCH
HAD THIS IDEA WITH JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE ON MY PART.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AT THIS HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE AND ATTENDANT
DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/WARMTH HAS DESTABILIZED THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AIRMASS...WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE NOTED ON
LOCAL ANALYSIS. INITIAL VORT LOBE/CONGEALED COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HELPED IGNITE A RATHER VIGOROUS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE REALLY CONFINED ALL INTENSE CORES TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...NEGATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG...BUT BRIEF...
SUBSIDENCE REGIME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LINE HELPING QUELL ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

ABOVE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KICKING OFF ADDITION RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES
SO.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. ADDRESSING LOW END SEVERE
CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TWO PART PROCESS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WELL ORGANIZED SUBSIDENCE
REGIME WEST OF ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION MAY SUPPRESS THINGS FOR A
WHILE...EVENING PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE THE SUN
SETS. WOULD EXPECT BEST FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS ELEVATED CORE
POTENTIAL. DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ATTENDANT WET MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. OF COURSE...NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ONE OF THESE
WIND GUSTS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...OCCURRING BEHIND ACTUAL FRONT IN REGION OF INTENSIFYING RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT INCREASING FGEN SIGNATURES. BEST
MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY LOST...BUT DYNAMICS DEFINITELY
THERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. WILL ATTEMPT
SOME TIMING OF THIS STEADIER RAIN POTENTIAL...SWIPING CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SPLIT WEEKEND WITH WET WEATHER SATURDAY/DRY AND COOL SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSES FROM
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATELINE...TO A SPLIT/BLOCKY
(STRONG -EPO) PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH AMERICA.  NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
CONFINED NORTH OF THE BORDER...WITH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER 48.  WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DIGGING SOUTHEAST...WITH
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROLLING INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS...
WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 60S DEW POINTS INTO
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO "SCRAPE" BY THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY...WITH A GENERALLY
PACIFIC-DOMINATED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES/
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY WITH FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER LAKES FOR MONDAY.
NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE WILL PUSH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1028+MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING HANGING
ON FOR MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO QUEBEC.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  RAIN SATURDAY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF A
LINGERING WIND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITHIN FRONTAL CIRCULATION
AND AIDED BY JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY SO WILL
PROBABLY COMPROMISE/SMOOTH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL
TREND KEEPING RAIN GOING A LITTLE LONGER IN SPOTS.  RAIN PROBABLY
WON`T END NEAR SAGINAW BAY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-32
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SOUTH OF A HOUGHTON LAKE-HARRISVILLE LINE.  CLOUDS WILL THIN BEHIND
THE RAIN BAND...WITH INCREASING SUN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR
FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED
WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MATTERS.  AS CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COME INTO
FOCUS IN COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.  ONE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHETHER WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS CAN SLACK OFF.
ONE ISSUE WILL BE LOCATION OF COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING EXIT
REGION DYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE BOUNDARY`S SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND KEEP SOME GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TREND AWAY FROM FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FOR
NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS.  WILL STILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY ABOVE THE BRIDGE WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL
SLACK OFF OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE A CHILLY WIND OFF LAKE
HURON WON`T HELP...AND 60-65 ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (NORMAL HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM 67-70).  COOL START TO THE NIGHT WILL RAISE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING...STILL SOME ISSUES
WITH WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE THEN CAN
SEE SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN NEAR
FREEZING LOWS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC.  DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MID CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE TO THE
AREA.  MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO SPEAK OF...POSSIBLY SOME
FROST?

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY QUIET. THE EURO SHOWS OUR PERIOD
BEGINNING WITH THE PASSING OF A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH NO MOISTURE (OR ANY OTHER SUPPORT)
TO WORK WITH...SHOULD GO BY UNNOTICED. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY...THATS WHEN OUR RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN AMBITIOUS TO BRING POPS
IN LATELY...ALL TO RESULT IN NOT. GUT FEELING IS...MORE CONFIDENT
THAT WE WONT SEE ANY ACTUAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY TO BLEND WITH OTHERS...AS THIS
IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WITH A VERY SHARP DIURNAL DIP ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
IN THE WHEELHOUSE FOR EARLY JUNE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO RUN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE FAIRLY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...SAVE FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
(BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z). WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE WARMER/HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF IFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PERHAPS SOME FOG.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RIDES UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN COOLER/MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING QUICK IMPROVEMENT ON
SATURDAY WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT. INITIAL SOUTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY VEER NORTHWEST IN THE PROCESS...BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY
BY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SCA PRODUCING WINDS AND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 300102
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AT THIS HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE AND ATTENDANT
DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/WARMTH HAS DESTABILIZED THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AIRMASS...WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE NOTED ON
LOCAL ANALYSIS. INITIAL VORT LOBE/CONGEALED COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HELPED IGNITE A RATHER VIGOROUS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE REALLY CONFINED ALL INTENSE CORES TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...NEGATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG...BUT BRIEF...
SUBSIDENCE REGIME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LINE HELPING QUELL ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

ABOVE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KICKING OFF ADDITION RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES
SO.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. ADDRESSING LOW END SEVERE
CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TWO PART PROCESS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WELL ORGANIZED SUBSIDENCE
REGIME WEST OF ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION MAY SUPPRESS THINGS FOR A
WHILE...EVENING PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE THE SUN
SETS. WOULD EXPECT BEST FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS ELEVATED CORE
POTENTIAL. DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ATTENDANT WET MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. OF COURSE...NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ONE OF THESE
WIND GUSTS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...OCCURRING BEHIND ACTUAL FRONT IN REGION OF INTENSIFYING RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT INCREASING FGEN SIGNATURES. BEST
MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY LOST...BUT DYNAMICS DEFINITELY
THERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. WILL ATTEMPT
SOME TIMING OF THIS STEADIER RAIN POTENTIAL...SWIPING CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SPLIT WEEKEND WITH WET WEATHER SATURDAY/DRY AND COOL SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSES FROM
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATELINE...TO A SPLIT/BLOCKY
(STRONG -EPO) PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH AMERICA.  NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
CONFINED NORTH OF THE BORDER...WITH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER 48.  WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DIGGING SOUTHEAST...WITH
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROLLING INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS...
WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 60S DEW POINTS INTO
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO "SCRAPE" BY THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY...WITH A GENERALLY
PACIFIC-DOMINATED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES/
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY WITH FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER LAKES FOR MONDAY.
NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE WILL PUSH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1028+MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING HANGING
ON FOR MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO QUEBEC.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  RAIN SATURDAY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF A
LINGERING WIND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITHIN FRONTAL CIRCULATION
AND AIDED BY JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY SO WILL
PROBABLY COMPROMISE/SMOOTH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL
TREND KEEPING RAIN GOING A LITTLE LONGER IN SPOTS.  RAIN PROBABLY
WON`T END NEAR SAGINAW BAY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-32
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SOUTH OF A HOUGHTON LAKE-HARRISVILLE LINE.  CLOUDS WILL THIN BEHIND
THE RAIN BAND...WITH INCREASING SUN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR
FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED
WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MATTERS.  AS CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COME INTO
FOCUS IN COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.  ONE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHETHER WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS CAN SLACK OFF.
ONE ISSUE WILL BE LOCATION OF COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING EXIT
REGION DYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE BOUNDARY`S SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND KEEP SOME GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TREND AWAY FROM FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FOR
NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS.  WILL STILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY ABOVE THE BRIDGE WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL
SLACK OFF OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE A CHILLY WIND OFF LAKE
HURON WON`T HELP...AND 60-65 ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (NORMAL HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM 67-70).  COOL START TO THE NIGHT WILL RAISE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING...STILL SOME ISSUES
WITH WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE THEN CAN
SEE SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN NEAR
FREEZING LOWS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC.  DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MID CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE TO THE
AREA.  MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO SPEAK OF...POSSIBLY SOME
FROST?

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY QUIET. THE EURO SHOWS OUR PERIOD
BEGINNING WITH THE PASSING OF A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH NO MOISTURE (OR ANY OTHER SUPPORT)
TO WORK WITH...SHOULD GO BY UNNOTICED. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY...THATS WHEN OUR RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN AMBITIOUS TO BRING POPS
IN LATELY...ALL TO RESULT IN NOT. GUT FEELING IS...MORE CONFIDENT
THAT WE WONT SEE ANY ACTUAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY TO BLEND WITH OTHERS...AS THIS
IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WITH A VERY SHARP DIURNAL DIP ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
IN THE WHEELHOUSE FOR EARLY JUNE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO RUN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE FAIRLY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...SAVE FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
(BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z). WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE WARMER/HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF IFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PERHAPS SOME FOG.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RIDES UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN COOLER/MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING QUICK IMPROVEMENT ON
SATURDAY WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.




&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT. INITIAL SOUTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY VEER NORTHWEST IN THE PROCESS...BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY
BY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SCA PRODUCING WINDS AND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 300102
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AT THIS HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE AND ATTENDANT
DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/WARMTH HAS DESTABILIZED THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AIRMASS...WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE NOTED ON
LOCAL ANALYSIS. INITIAL VORT LOBE/CONGEALED COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HELPED IGNITE A RATHER VIGOROUS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE REALLY CONFINED ALL INTENSE CORES TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...NEGATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG...BUT BRIEF...
SUBSIDENCE REGIME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LINE HELPING QUELL ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

ABOVE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KICKING OFF ADDITION RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES
SO.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. ADDRESSING LOW END SEVERE
CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TWO PART PROCESS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WELL ORGANIZED SUBSIDENCE
REGIME WEST OF ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION MAY SUPPRESS THINGS FOR A
WHILE...EVENING PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE THE SUN
SETS. WOULD EXPECT BEST FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS ELEVATED CORE
POTENTIAL. DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ATTENDANT WET MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. OF COURSE...NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ONE OF THESE
WIND GUSTS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...OCCURRING BEHIND ACTUAL FRONT IN REGION OF INTENSIFYING RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT INCREASING FGEN SIGNATURES. BEST
MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY LOST...BUT DYNAMICS DEFINITELY
THERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. WILL ATTEMPT
SOME TIMING OF THIS STEADIER RAIN POTENTIAL...SWIPING CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SPLIT WEEKEND WITH WET WEATHER SATURDAY/DRY AND COOL SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSES FROM
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATELINE...TO A SPLIT/BLOCKY
(STRONG -EPO) PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH AMERICA.  NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
CONFINED NORTH OF THE BORDER...WITH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER 48.  WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DIGGING SOUTHEAST...WITH
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROLLING INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS...
WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 60S DEW POINTS INTO
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO "SCRAPE" BY THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY...WITH A GENERALLY
PACIFIC-DOMINATED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES/
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY WITH FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER LAKES FOR MONDAY.
NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE WILL PUSH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1028+MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING HANGING
ON FOR MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO QUEBEC.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  RAIN SATURDAY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF A
LINGERING WIND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITHIN FRONTAL CIRCULATION
AND AIDED BY JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY SO WILL
PROBABLY COMPROMISE/SMOOTH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL
TREND KEEPING RAIN GOING A LITTLE LONGER IN SPOTS.  RAIN PROBABLY
WON`T END NEAR SAGINAW BAY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-32
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SOUTH OF A HOUGHTON LAKE-HARRISVILLE LINE.  CLOUDS WILL THIN BEHIND
THE RAIN BAND...WITH INCREASING SUN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR
FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED
WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MATTERS.  AS CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COME INTO
FOCUS IN COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.  ONE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHETHER WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS CAN SLACK OFF.
ONE ISSUE WILL BE LOCATION OF COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING EXIT
REGION DYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE BOUNDARY`S SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND KEEP SOME GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TREND AWAY FROM FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FOR
NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS.  WILL STILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY ABOVE THE BRIDGE WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL
SLACK OFF OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE A CHILLY WIND OFF LAKE
HURON WON`T HELP...AND 60-65 ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (NORMAL HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM 67-70).  COOL START TO THE NIGHT WILL RAISE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING...STILL SOME ISSUES
WITH WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE THEN CAN
SEE SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN NEAR
FREEZING LOWS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC.  DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MID CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE TO THE
AREA.  MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO SPEAK OF...POSSIBLY SOME
FROST?

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY QUIET. THE EURO SHOWS OUR PERIOD
BEGINNING WITH THE PASSING OF A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH NO MOISTURE (OR ANY OTHER SUPPORT)
TO WORK WITH...SHOULD GO BY UNNOTICED. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY...THATS WHEN OUR RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN AMBITIOUS TO BRING POPS
IN LATELY...ALL TO RESULT IN NOT. GUT FEELING IS...MORE CONFIDENT
THAT WE WONT SEE ANY ACTUAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY TO BLEND WITH OTHERS...AS THIS
IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WITH A VERY SHARP DIURNAL DIP ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
IN THE WHEELHOUSE FOR EARLY JUNE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO RUN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE FAIRLY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...SAVE FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
(BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z). WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE WARMER/HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF IFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PERHAPS SOME FOG.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RIDES UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN COOLER/MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING QUICK IMPROVEMENT ON
SATURDAY WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.




&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT. INITIAL SOUTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY VEER NORTHWEST IN THE PROCESS...BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY
BY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SCA PRODUCING WINDS AND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 300102
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AT THIS HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE AND ATTENDANT
DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/WARMTH HAS DESTABILIZED THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AIRMASS...WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE NOTED ON
LOCAL ANALYSIS. INITIAL VORT LOBE/CONGEALED COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HELPED IGNITE A RATHER VIGOROUS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE REALLY CONFINED ALL INTENSE CORES TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...NEGATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG...BUT BRIEF...
SUBSIDENCE REGIME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LINE HELPING QUELL ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

ABOVE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KICKING OFF ADDITION RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES
SO.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. ADDRESSING LOW END SEVERE
CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TWO PART PROCESS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WELL ORGANIZED SUBSIDENCE
REGIME WEST OF ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION MAY SUPPRESS THINGS FOR A
WHILE...EVENING PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE THE SUN
SETS. WOULD EXPECT BEST FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS ELEVATED CORE
POTENTIAL. DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ATTENDANT WET MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. OF COURSE...NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ONE OF THESE
WIND GUSTS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...OCCURRING BEHIND ACTUAL FRONT IN REGION OF INTENSIFYING RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT INCREASING FGEN SIGNATURES. BEST
MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY LOST...BUT DYNAMICS DEFINITELY
THERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. WILL ATTEMPT
SOME TIMING OF THIS STEADIER RAIN POTENTIAL...SWIPING CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SPLIT WEEKEND WITH WET WEATHER SATURDAY/DRY AND COOL SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSES FROM
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATELINE...TO A SPLIT/BLOCKY
(STRONG -EPO) PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH AMERICA.  NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
CONFINED NORTH OF THE BORDER...WITH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER 48.  WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DIGGING SOUTHEAST...WITH
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROLLING INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS...
WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 60S DEW POINTS INTO
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO "SCRAPE" BY THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY...WITH A GENERALLY
PACIFIC-DOMINATED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES/
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY WITH FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER LAKES FOR MONDAY.
NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE WILL PUSH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1028+MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING HANGING
ON FOR MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO QUEBEC.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  RAIN SATURDAY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF A
LINGERING WIND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITHIN FRONTAL CIRCULATION
AND AIDED BY JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY SO WILL
PROBABLY COMPROMISE/SMOOTH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL
TREND KEEPING RAIN GOING A LITTLE LONGER IN SPOTS.  RAIN PROBABLY
WON`T END NEAR SAGINAW BAY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-32
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SOUTH OF A HOUGHTON LAKE-HARRISVILLE LINE.  CLOUDS WILL THIN BEHIND
THE RAIN BAND...WITH INCREASING SUN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR
FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED
WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MATTERS.  AS CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COME INTO
FOCUS IN COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.  ONE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHETHER WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS CAN SLACK OFF.
ONE ISSUE WILL BE LOCATION OF COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING EXIT
REGION DYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE BOUNDARY`S SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND KEEP SOME GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TREND AWAY FROM FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FOR
NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS.  WILL STILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY ABOVE THE BRIDGE WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL
SLACK OFF OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE A CHILLY WIND OFF LAKE
HURON WON`T HELP...AND 60-65 ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (NORMAL HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM 67-70).  COOL START TO THE NIGHT WILL RAISE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING...STILL SOME ISSUES
WITH WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE THEN CAN
SEE SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN NEAR
FREEZING LOWS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC.  DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MID CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE TO THE
AREA.  MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO SPEAK OF...POSSIBLY SOME
FROST?

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY QUIET. THE EURO SHOWS OUR PERIOD
BEGINNING WITH THE PASSING OF A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH NO MOISTURE (OR ANY OTHER SUPPORT)
TO WORK WITH...SHOULD GO BY UNNOTICED. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY...THATS WHEN OUR RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN AMBITIOUS TO BRING POPS
IN LATELY...ALL TO RESULT IN NOT. GUT FEELING IS...MORE CONFIDENT
THAT WE WONT SEE ANY ACTUAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY TO BLEND WITH OTHERS...AS THIS
IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WITH A VERY SHARP DIURNAL DIP ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
IN THE WHEELHOUSE FOR EARLY JUNE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO RUN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE FAIRLY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...SAVE FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
(BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z). WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE WARMER/HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF IFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PERHAPS SOME FOG.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RIDES UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN COOLER/MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING QUICK IMPROVEMENT ON
SATURDAY WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.




&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT. INITIAL SOUTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY VEER NORTHWEST IN THE PROCESS...BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY
BY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SCA PRODUCING WINDS AND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 300102
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AT THIS HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE AND ATTENDANT
DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/WARMTH HAS DESTABILIZED THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AIRMASS...WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE NOTED ON
LOCAL ANALYSIS. INITIAL VORT LOBE/CONGEALED COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HELPED IGNITE A RATHER VIGOROUS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE REALLY CONFINED ALL INTENSE CORES TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...NEGATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG...BUT BRIEF...
SUBSIDENCE REGIME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LINE HELPING QUELL ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

ABOVE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KICKING OFF ADDITION RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES
SO.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. ADDRESSING LOW END SEVERE
CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TWO PART PROCESS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WELL ORGANIZED SUBSIDENCE
REGIME WEST OF ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION MAY SUPPRESS THINGS FOR A
WHILE...EVENING PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE THE SUN
SETS. WOULD EXPECT BEST FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS ELEVATED CORE
POTENTIAL. DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ATTENDANT WET MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. OF COURSE...NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ONE OF THESE
WIND GUSTS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...OCCURRING BEHIND ACTUAL FRONT IN REGION OF INTENSIFYING RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT INCREASING FGEN SIGNATURES. BEST
MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY LOST...BUT DYNAMICS DEFINITELY
THERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. WILL ATTEMPT
SOME TIMING OF THIS STEADIER RAIN POTENTIAL...SWIPING CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SPLIT WEEKEND WITH WET WEATHER SATURDAY/DRY AND COOL SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSES FROM
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATELINE...TO A SPLIT/BLOCKY
(STRONG -EPO) PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH AMERICA.  NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
CONFINED NORTH OF THE BORDER...WITH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER 48.  WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DIGGING SOUTHEAST...WITH
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROLLING INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS...
WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 60S DEW POINTS INTO
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO "SCRAPE" BY THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY...WITH A GENERALLY
PACIFIC-DOMINATED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES/
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY WITH FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER LAKES FOR MONDAY.
NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE WILL PUSH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1028+MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING HANGING
ON FOR MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO QUEBEC.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  RAIN SATURDAY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF A
LINGERING WIND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITHIN FRONTAL CIRCULATION
AND AIDED BY JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY SO WILL
PROBABLY COMPROMISE/SMOOTH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL
TREND KEEPING RAIN GOING A LITTLE LONGER IN SPOTS.  RAIN PROBABLY
WON`T END NEAR SAGINAW BAY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-32
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SOUTH OF A HOUGHTON LAKE-HARRISVILLE LINE.  CLOUDS WILL THIN BEHIND
THE RAIN BAND...WITH INCREASING SUN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR
FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED
WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MATTERS.  AS CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COME INTO
FOCUS IN COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.  ONE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHETHER WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS CAN SLACK OFF.
ONE ISSUE WILL BE LOCATION OF COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING EXIT
REGION DYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE BOUNDARY`S SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND KEEP SOME GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TREND AWAY FROM FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FOR
NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS.  WILL STILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY ABOVE THE BRIDGE WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL
SLACK OFF OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE A CHILLY WIND OFF LAKE
HURON WON`T HELP...AND 60-65 ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (NORMAL HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM 67-70).  COOL START TO THE NIGHT WILL RAISE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING...STILL SOME ISSUES
WITH WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE THEN CAN
SEE SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN NEAR
FREEZING LOWS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC.  DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MID CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE TO THE
AREA.  MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO SPEAK OF...POSSIBLY SOME
FROST?

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY QUIET. THE EURO SHOWS OUR PERIOD
BEGINNING WITH THE PASSING OF A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH NO MOISTURE (OR ANY OTHER SUPPORT)
TO WORK WITH...SHOULD GO BY UNNOTICED. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY...THATS WHEN OUR RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN AMBITIOUS TO BRING POPS
IN LATELY...ALL TO RESULT IN NOT. GUT FEELING IS...MORE CONFIDENT
THAT WE WONT SEE ANY ACTUAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY TO BLEND WITH OTHERS...AS THIS
IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WITH A VERY SHARP DIURNAL DIP ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
IN THE WHEELHOUSE FOR EARLY JUNE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO RUN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE FAIRLY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...SAVE FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
(BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z). WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE WARMER/HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF IFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PERHAPS SOME FOG.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RIDES UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN COOLER/MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING QUICK IMPROVEMENT ON
SATURDAY WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.




&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT. INITIAL SOUTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY VEER NORTHWEST IN THE PROCESS...BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY
BY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SCA PRODUCING WINDS AND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 300102
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AT THIS HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE AND ATTENDANT
DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/WARMTH HAS DESTABILIZED THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AIRMASS...WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE NOTED ON
LOCAL ANALYSIS. INITIAL VORT LOBE/CONGEALED COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HELPED IGNITE A RATHER VIGOROUS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE REALLY CONFINED ALL INTENSE CORES TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...NEGATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG...BUT BRIEF...
SUBSIDENCE REGIME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LINE HELPING QUELL ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

ABOVE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KICKING OFF ADDITION RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES
SO.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. ADDRESSING LOW END SEVERE
CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TWO PART PROCESS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WELL ORGANIZED SUBSIDENCE
REGIME WEST OF ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION MAY SUPPRESS THINGS FOR A
WHILE...EVENING PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE THE SUN
SETS. WOULD EXPECT BEST FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS ELEVATED CORE
POTENTIAL. DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ATTENDANT WET MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. OF COURSE...NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ONE OF THESE
WIND GUSTS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...OCCURRING BEHIND ACTUAL FRONT IN REGION OF INTENSIFYING RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT INCREASING FGEN SIGNATURES. BEST
MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY LOST...BUT DYNAMICS DEFINITELY
THERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. WILL ATTEMPT
SOME TIMING OF THIS STEADIER RAIN POTENTIAL...SWIPING CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SPLIT WEEKEND WITH WET WEATHER SATURDAY/DRY AND COOL SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSES FROM
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATELINE...TO A SPLIT/BLOCKY
(STRONG -EPO) PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH AMERICA.  NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
CONFINED NORTH OF THE BORDER...WITH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER 48.  WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DIGGING SOUTHEAST...WITH
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROLLING INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS...
WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 60S DEW POINTS INTO
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO "SCRAPE" BY THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY...WITH A GENERALLY
PACIFIC-DOMINATED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES/
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY WITH FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER LAKES FOR MONDAY.
NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE WILL PUSH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1028+MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING HANGING
ON FOR MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO QUEBEC.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  RAIN SATURDAY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF A
LINGERING WIND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITHIN FRONTAL CIRCULATION
AND AIDED BY JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY SO WILL
PROBABLY COMPROMISE/SMOOTH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL
TREND KEEPING RAIN GOING A LITTLE LONGER IN SPOTS.  RAIN PROBABLY
WON`T END NEAR SAGINAW BAY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-32
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SOUTH OF A HOUGHTON LAKE-HARRISVILLE LINE.  CLOUDS WILL THIN BEHIND
THE RAIN BAND...WITH INCREASING SUN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR
FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED
WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MATTERS.  AS CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COME INTO
FOCUS IN COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.  ONE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHETHER WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS CAN SLACK OFF.
ONE ISSUE WILL BE LOCATION OF COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING EXIT
REGION DYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE BOUNDARY`S SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND KEEP SOME GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TREND AWAY FROM FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FOR
NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS.  WILL STILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY ABOVE THE BRIDGE WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL
SLACK OFF OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE A CHILLY WIND OFF LAKE
HURON WON`T HELP...AND 60-65 ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (NORMAL HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM 67-70).  COOL START TO THE NIGHT WILL RAISE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING...STILL SOME ISSUES
WITH WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE THEN CAN
SEE SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN NEAR
FREEZING LOWS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC.  DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MID CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE TO THE
AREA.  MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO SPEAK OF...POSSIBLY SOME
FROST?

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY QUIET. THE EURO SHOWS OUR PERIOD
BEGINNING WITH THE PASSING OF A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH NO MOISTURE (OR ANY OTHER SUPPORT)
TO WORK WITH...SHOULD GO BY UNNOTICED. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY...THATS WHEN OUR RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN AMBITIOUS TO BRING POPS
IN LATELY...ALL TO RESULT IN NOT. GUT FEELING IS...MORE CONFIDENT
THAT WE WONT SEE ANY ACTUAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY TO BLEND WITH OTHERS...AS THIS
IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WITH A VERY SHARP DIURNAL DIP ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
IN THE WHEELHOUSE FOR EARLY JUNE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO RUN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE FAIRLY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...SAVE FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
(BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z). WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE WARMER/HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF IFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PERHAPS SOME FOG.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RIDES UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN COOLER/MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING QUICK IMPROVEMENT ON
SATURDAY WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.




&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT. INITIAL SOUTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY VEER NORTHWEST IN THE PROCESS...BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY
BY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SCA PRODUCING WINDS AND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 300102
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AT THIS HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE AND ATTENDANT
DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/WARMTH HAS DESTABILIZED THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AIRMASS...WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE NOTED ON
LOCAL ANALYSIS. INITIAL VORT LOBE/CONGEALED COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HELPED IGNITE A RATHER VIGOROUS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE REALLY CONFINED ALL INTENSE CORES TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...NEGATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG...BUT BRIEF...
SUBSIDENCE REGIME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LINE HELPING QUELL ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

ABOVE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KICKING OFF ADDITION RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES
SO.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. ADDRESSING LOW END SEVERE
CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TWO PART PROCESS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WELL ORGANIZED SUBSIDENCE
REGIME WEST OF ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION MAY SUPPRESS THINGS FOR A
WHILE...EVENING PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE THE SUN
SETS. WOULD EXPECT BEST FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS ELEVATED CORE
POTENTIAL. DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ATTENDANT WET MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. OF COURSE...NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ONE OF THESE
WIND GUSTS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...OCCURRING BEHIND ACTUAL FRONT IN REGION OF INTENSIFYING RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT INCREASING FGEN SIGNATURES. BEST
MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY LOST...BUT DYNAMICS DEFINITELY
THERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. WILL ATTEMPT
SOME TIMING OF THIS STEADIER RAIN POTENTIAL...SWIPING CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SPLIT WEEKEND WITH WET WEATHER SATURDAY/DRY AND COOL SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSES FROM
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATELINE...TO A SPLIT/BLOCKY
(STRONG -EPO) PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH AMERICA.  NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
CONFINED NORTH OF THE BORDER...WITH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER 48.  WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DIGGING SOUTHEAST...WITH
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROLLING INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS...
WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 60S DEW POINTS INTO
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO "SCRAPE" BY THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY...WITH A GENERALLY
PACIFIC-DOMINATED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES/
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY WITH FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER LAKES FOR MONDAY.
NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE WILL PUSH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1028+MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING HANGING
ON FOR MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO QUEBEC.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  RAIN SATURDAY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF A
LINGERING WIND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITHIN FRONTAL CIRCULATION
AND AIDED BY JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY SO WILL
PROBABLY COMPROMISE/SMOOTH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL
TREND KEEPING RAIN GOING A LITTLE LONGER IN SPOTS.  RAIN PROBABLY
WON`T END NEAR SAGINAW BAY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-32
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SOUTH OF A HOUGHTON LAKE-HARRISVILLE LINE.  CLOUDS WILL THIN BEHIND
THE RAIN BAND...WITH INCREASING SUN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR
FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED
WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MATTERS.  AS CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COME INTO
FOCUS IN COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.  ONE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHETHER WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS CAN SLACK OFF.
ONE ISSUE WILL BE LOCATION OF COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING EXIT
REGION DYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE BOUNDARY`S SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND KEEP SOME GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TREND AWAY FROM FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FOR
NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS.  WILL STILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY ABOVE THE BRIDGE WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL
SLACK OFF OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE A CHILLY WIND OFF LAKE
HURON WON`T HELP...AND 60-65 ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (NORMAL HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM 67-70).  COOL START TO THE NIGHT WILL RAISE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING...STILL SOME ISSUES
WITH WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE THEN CAN
SEE SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN NEAR
FREEZING LOWS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC.  DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MID CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE TO THE
AREA.  MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO SPEAK OF...POSSIBLY SOME
FROST?

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY QUIET. THE EURO SHOWS OUR PERIOD
BEGINNING WITH THE PASSING OF A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH NO MOISTURE (OR ANY OTHER SUPPORT)
TO WORK WITH...SHOULD GO BY UNNOTICED. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY...THATS WHEN OUR RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN AMBITIOUS TO BRING POPS
IN LATELY...ALL TO RESULT IN NOT. GUT FEELING IS...MORE CONFIDENT
THAT WE WONT SEE ANY ACTUAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY TO BLEND WITH OTHERS...AS THIS
IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WITH A VERY SHARP DIURNAL DIP ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
IN THE WHEELHOUSE FOR EARLY JUNE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO RUN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE FAIRLY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...SAVE FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
(BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z). WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE WARMER/HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF IFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PERHAPS SOME FOG.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RIDES UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN COOLER/MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING QUICK IMPROVEMENT ON
SATURDAY WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.




&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT. INITIAL SOUTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY VEER NORTHWEST IN THE PROCESS...BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY
BY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SCA PRODUCING WINDS AND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KGRR 292358
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
758 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COULD BE RATHER WET AS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S DESPITE SUNSHINE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-46 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 70S BY TUESDAY AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR IT/S BEEN LOW-TOPPED WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING.
THE STRONGER CELLS ARE CLOSER TO ST LOUIS MO BUT ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT
MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LI/S NEAR
-3 ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ATTM COUPLED WITH 1K J/K SBCAPE BUT NOT
MUCH TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WITH HELP TO FOCUS PCPN LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR POST FRONTAL. A 300 MB
JETLET SEEMS TO BE THE CAUSE OF THIS AS IT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN UPPER
JET FARTHER NORTH. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WAVE WILL CAUSE MORE PCPN OVER THE SRN CWA.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR SMALL ATTM DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD BE A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ...THERE IS LITTLE TO
FOCUS ANY CONVECTION AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THAT SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND FILLS AND A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PROVIDE BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS INTO
MFR OR IFR CATEGORY FOR 15-30 MINS.

LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT
BECOMES AND HOW LOW THE CIGS/VSBYS GO. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES AFTER 09Z.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING
ON SATURDAY AS SFC FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE STATE AND LARGE AREA
OF RAIN IMPACTS THE AREA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY. LOOK FOR WAVES TO BUILD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A SCA
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA TO BELOW NORMAL SOUTHEAST. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND A HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS INCH. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS
OF ABOUT 2 INCHES WOULD BE NECESSARY TO PUSH SEVERAL OF THE MID-
MICHIGAN RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 292358
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
758 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COULD BE RATHER WET AS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S DESPITE SUNSHINE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-46 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 70S BY TUESDAY AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR IT/S BEEN LOW-TOPPED WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING.
THE STRONGER CELLS ARE CLOSER TO ST LOUIS MO BUT ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT
MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LI/S NEAR
-3 ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ATTM COUPLED WITH 1K J/K SBCAPE BUT NOT
MUCH TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WITH HELP TO FOCUS PCPN LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR POST FRONTAL. A 300 MB
JETLET SEEMS TO BE THE CAUSE OF THIS AS IT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN UPPER
JET FARTHER NORTH. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WAVE WILL CAUSE MORE PCPN OVER THE SRN CWA.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR SMALL ATTM DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD BE A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ...THERE IS LITTLE TO
FOCUS ANY CONVECTION AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THAT SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND FILLS AND A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PROVIDE BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS INTO
MFR OR IFR CATEGORY FOR 15-30 MINS.

LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT
BECOMES AND HOW LOW THE CIGS/VSBYS GO. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES AFTER 09Z.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING
ON SATURDAY AS SFC FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE STATE AND LARGE AREA
OF RAIN IMPACTS THE AREA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY. LOOK FOR WAVES TO BUILD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A SCA
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA TO BELOW NORMAL SOUTHEAST. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND A HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS INCH. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS
OF ABOUT 2 INCHES WOULD BE NECESSARY TO PUSH SEVERAL OF THE MID-
MICHIGAN RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 292358
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
758 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COULD BE RATHER WET AS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S DESPITE SUNSHINE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-46 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 70S BY TUESDAY AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR IT/S BEEN LOW-TOPPED WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING.
THE STRONGER CELLS ARE CLOSER TO ST LOUIS MO BUT ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT
MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LI/S NEAR
-3 ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ATTM COUPLED WITH 1K J/K SBCAPE BUT NOT
MUCH TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WITH HELP TO FOCUS PCPN LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR POST FRONTAL. A 300 MB
JETLET SEEMS TO BE THE CAUSE OF THIS AS IT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN UPPER
JET FARTHER NORTH. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WAVE WILL CAUSE MORE PCPN OVER THE SRN CWA.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR SMALL ATTM DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD BE A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ...THERE IS LITTLE TO
FOCUS ANY CONVECTION AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THAT SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND FILLS AND A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PROVIDE BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS INTO
MFR OR IFR CATEGORY FOR 15-30 MINS.

LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT
BECOMES AND HOW LOW THE CIGS/VSBYS GO. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES AFTER 09Z.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING
ON SATURDAY AS SFC FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE STATE AND LARGE AREA
OF RAIN IMPACTS THE AREA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY. LOOK FOR WAVES TO BUILD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A SCA
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA TO BELOW NORMAL SOUTHEAST. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND A HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS INCH. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS
OF ABOUT 2 INCHES WOULD BE NECESSARY TO PUSH SEVERAL OF THE MID-
MICHIGAN RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KDTX 292257
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
657 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FROM MBS TO FNT DURING EARLY
EVENING WILL BRUSH PTK AS WELL. THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONSIDERING HOW FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN DETECTED DURING PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE MBS TO FNT AREA WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. THE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN WILL REQUIRE FREQUENT UPDATES FOR TIMING AND
INTENSITY REFINEMENTS AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A GENERAL TREND TOWARD INCREASING COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN DURING SATURDAY. IFR CEILING AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LASTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR DTW... THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD PTK DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A
PASSING SHOWER DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT JUDGING BY THE LACK OF
ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RAMP UP DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND PEAK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR CEILING AND NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LOOKS
SOLID WITH A 22Z FRONTAL PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
  SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MEDIUM SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
MOVED ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THESE
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT TODAY AND ARE NOW JUST STARTING TO THIN
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING.  TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE
CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA.  THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING.  THIS ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GOING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...TRI-CITIES AREA...AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE HOWEVER
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1
INCH.  GIVEN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A WARM MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT TEMPS TONIGHT TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS
ONLY DROPPING DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PROBABLY FOR RAIN
REMAINS HIGH HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOW WITH TIMING
THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...WHICH BLEEDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL NOW.

UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES EAST. RESULT WILL BE A
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY TOMORROW. SMALLER UPPER WAVES
LIFTING UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WILL HELP GENERATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE WAVES ARE HARDER TO TIME IN GENERAL BECAUSE OF THEIR
SMALLER SCALE...ESPECIALLY WHEN SOME ARE GENERATED/AFFECTED BY
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE HOW THESE
WAVES WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND THE
STRONG UPPER WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. GFS/NAM
REMAIN MORE IN LINE WITH THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY
THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WHILE THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY
THE NEW 12Z EURO ALLOW IT TO SLIP UP CLOSER TO OR EVEN INTO MICHIGAN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND SCENARIO WOULD DELAY THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...KEEPING IT POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
LONGER AND KEEPING RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...INITIAL SET-UP LOOKS THE SAME TO START SATURDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES
RISING JUST ABOVE 1.75 INCHES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHAT REMAINS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA SHOULD WORK
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DROP SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING.
EXPECTATION IS THAT FGEN AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING WILL HELP
PROVIDE A MORE SOLID AREA OF LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROADER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. THUNDER MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT THERE
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY STRONG FROM M-59
SOUTH...TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT TO BECOME STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MI MONDAY WILL REINFORCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO ANOTHER COOLER-THAN-NORMAL DAY BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE A DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED. HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING TO A NICE WARMING
TREND. SPRAWLING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
SET UP THURSDAY FRIDAY WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SIGNAL WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR NOW.

MARINE...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
THEY START TO FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT
WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE IN SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN
AND INCREASES INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY AS
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND ALLOW HIGHER WAVES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 292257
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
657 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FROM MBS TO FNT DURING EARLY
EVENING WILL BRUSH PTK AS WELL. THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONSIDERING HOW FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN DETECTED DURING PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE MBS TO FNT AREA WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. THE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN WILL REQUIRE FREQUENT UPDATES FOR TIMING AND
INTENSITY REFINEMENTS AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A GENERAL TREND TOWARD INCREASING COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN DURING SATURDAY. IFR CEILING AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LASTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR DTW... THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD PTK DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A
PASSING SHOWER DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT JUDGING BY THE LACK OF
ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RAMP UP DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND PEAK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR CEILING AND NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LOOKS
SOLID WITH A 22Z FRONTAL PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
  SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MEDIUM SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
MOVED ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THESE
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT TODAY AND ARE NOW JUST STARTING TO THIN
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING.  TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE
CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA.  THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING.  THIS ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GOING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...TRI-CITIES AREA...AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE HOWEVER
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1
INCH.  GIVEN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A WARM MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT TEMPS TONIGHT TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS
ONLY DROPPING DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PROBABLY FOR RAIN
REMAINS HIGH HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOW WITH TIMING
THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...WHICH BLEEDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL NOW.

UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES EAST. RESULT WILL BE A
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY TOMORROW. SMALLER UPPER WAVES
LIFTING UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WILL HELP GENERATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE WAVES ARE HARDER TO TIME IN GENERAL BECAUSE OF THEIR
SMALLER SCALE...ESPECIALLY WHEN SOME ARE GENERATED/AFFECTED BY
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE HOW THESE
WAVES WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND THE
STRONG UPPER WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. GFS/NAM
REMAIN MORE IN LINE WITH THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY
THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WHILE THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY
THE NEW 12Z EURO ALLOW IT TO SLIP UP CLOSER TO OR EVEN INTO MICHIGAN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND SCENARIO WOULD DELAY THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...KEEPING IT POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
LONGER AND KEEPING RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...INITIAL SET-UP LOOKS THE SAME TO START SATURDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES
RISING JUST ABOVE 1.75 INCHES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHAT REMAINS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA SHOULD WORK
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DROP SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING.
EXPECTATION IS THAT FGEN AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING WILL HELP
PROVIDE A MORE SOLID AREA OF LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROADER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. THUNDER MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT THERE
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY STRONG FROM M-59
SOUTH...TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT TO BECOME STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MI MONDAY WILL REINFORCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO ANOTHER COOLER-THAN-NORMAL DAY BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE A DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED. HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING TO A NICE WARMING
TREND. SPRAWLING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
SET UP THURSDAY FRIDAY WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SIGNAL WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR NOW.

MARINE...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
THEY START TO FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT
WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE IN SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN
AND INCREASES INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY AS
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND ALLOW HIGHER WAVES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 292039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON
IS LOWER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND KSAW...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 292039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON
IS LOWER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND KSAW...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 292039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON
IS LOWER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND KSAW...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 292039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON
IS LOWER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND KSAW...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 292024
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
424 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NRN STREAM RIDGING OVER FAR WRN CANADA/ALASKA VCNTY THAT HAS BEEN A
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MANY WEEKS...AND REALLY MUCH OF THIS YEAR...
WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE UPCOMING CHANGES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER PATTERN (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO
THAT...ONE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE S INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IS STILL
VERY STRONG IN NW CANADA/ALASKA (500MB HEIGHTS AT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVG). WITH THE COLD AIR MASS...THERE
WILL BE TWO NIGHTS WITH FROST LIKELY (SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT). AS FOR
PCPN...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA...SEVERAL DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL. DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE NW CONUS TROF SENDS ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM.

BEGINNING SAT...AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLICING THRU LWR MI
AND HEADING SE WHILE THE CENTER OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WEAK SFC WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK COULD RESULT IN SOME -RA LINGERING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL
(AROUND KMNM) IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CAA/BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WITH FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO HOVER AT OR BLO 0C OVER WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE N TO THE MID/UPPER 50S S. AT LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THINNING OUT FROM NW TO SE THRU THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE NIGHT...NOT QUITE A PERFECT
LOCATION FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE FOR WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
AT THAT POSITION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
INTO NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...WON`T CONSIDER THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
MIN TEMPS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL AID RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WITH MINS AS LOW AS THE
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS AND MID/UPPER
30S LAKESIDE. SHOULD BE COLDEST INTERIOR W HALF. FROST/FREEZE IS
LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.

WHILE THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SFC HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT E ON SUN...
ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LAKE
BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S N TO THE LWR 60S SCNTRL/INTERIOR W. MANY LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S.

ON SUN NIGHT...GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO UNDER A QUARTER
INCH OVER THE E HALF WITH THE NAM DOWN TO ALMOST ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE CNTRL...BOTH MODELS LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING BACK INTO UPPER MI...SUN NIGHT COULD END UP AS COLD AS
SAT NIGHT IN MANY AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS.
OVERALL...MIN TEMP RANGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT...BUT
COLDEST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. WILL SEE ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE IN THE
INTERIOR.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MESO HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY MON.
SO...LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...THOUGH THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS ON SUN. IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKES.

TUE THRU THU...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ENSURE ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROF BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS AND LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS
UTILIZED. THIS RESULTS IN SCHC TO CHC POPS WED INCREASING SLIGHTLY
FOR THU. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH INCREASING
DWPTS GIVING A SUMMER FEEL TO THE WARMTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON
IS LOWER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND KSAW...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 292024
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
424 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NRN STREAM RIDGING OVER FAR WRN CANADA/ALASKA VCNTY THAT HAS BEEN A
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MANY WEEKS...AND REALLY MUCH OF THIS YEAR...
WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE UPCOMING CHANGES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER PATTERN (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO
THAT...ONE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE S INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IS STILL
VERY STRONG IN NW CANADA/ALASKA (500MB HEIGHTS AT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVG). WITH THE COLD AIR MASS...THERE
WILL BE TWO NIGHTS WITH FROST LIKELY (SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT). AS FOR
PCPN...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA...SEVERAL DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL. DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE NW CONUS TROF SENDS ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM.

BEGINNING SAT...AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLICING THRU LWR MI
AND HEADING SE WHILE THE CENTER OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WEAK SFC WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK COULD RESULT IN SOME -RA LINGERING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL
(AROUND KMNM) IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CAA/BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WITH FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO HOVER AT OR BLO 0C OVER WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE N TO THE MID/UPPER 50S S. AT LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THINNING OUT FROM NW TO SE THRU THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE NIGHT...NOT QUITE A PERFECT
LOCATION FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE FOR WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
AT THAT POSITION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
INTO NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...WON`T CONSIDER THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
MIN TEMPS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL AID RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WITH MINS AS LOW AS THE
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS AND MID/UPPER
30S LAKESIDE. SHOULD BE COLDEST INTERIOR W HALF. FROST/FREEZE IS
LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.

WHILE THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SFC HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT E ON SUN...
ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LAKE
BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S N TO THE LWR 60S SCNTRL/INTERIOR W. MANY LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S.

ON SUN NIGHT...GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO UNDER A QUARTER
INCH OVER THE E HALF WITH THE NAM DOWN TO ALMOST ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE CNTRL...BOTH MODELS LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING BACK INTO UPPER MI...SUN NIGHT COULD END UP AS COLD AS
SAT NIGHT IN MANY AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS.
OVERALL...MIN TEMP RANGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT...BUT
COLDEST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. WILL SEE ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE IN THE
INTERIOR.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MESO HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY MON.
SO...LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...THOUGH THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS ON SUN. IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKES.

TUE THRU THU...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ENSURE ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROF BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS AND LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS
UTILIZED. THIS RESULTS IN SCHC TO CHC POPS WED INCREASING SLIGHTLY
FOR THU. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH INCREASING
DWPTS GIVING A SUMMER FEEL TO THE WARMTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON
IS LOWER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND KSAW...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KDTX 292013
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
MOVED ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THESE
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT TODAY AND ARE NOW JUST STARTING TO THIN
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING.  TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE
CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA.  THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING.  THIS ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GOING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...TRI-CITIES AREA...AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE HOWEVER
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1
INCH.  GIVEN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A WARM MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT TEMPS TONIGHT TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS
ONLY DROPPING DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PROBABLY FOR RAIN
REMAINS HIGH HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOW WITH TIMING
THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...WHICH BLEEDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL NOW.

UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES EAST. RESULT WILL BE A
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY TOMORROW. SMALLER UPPER WAVES
LIFTING UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WILL HELP GENERATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE WAVES ARE HARDER TO TIME IN GENERAL BECAUSE OF THEIR
SMALLER SCALE...ESPECIALLY WHEN SOME ARE GENERATED/AFFECTED BY
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE HOW THESE
WAVES WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND THE
STRONG UPPER WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. GFS/NAM
REMAIN MORE IN LINE WITH THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY
THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WHILE THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY
THE NEW 12Z EURO ALLOW IT TO SLIP UP CLOSER TO OR EVEN INTO MICHIGAN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND SCENARIO WOULD DELAY THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...KEEPING IT POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
LONGER AND KEEPING RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...INITIAL SET-UP LOOKS THE SAME TO START SATURDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES
RISING JUST ABOVE 1.75 INCHES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHAT REMAINS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA SHOULD WORK
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DROP SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING.
EXPECTATION IS THAT FGEN AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING WILL HELP
PROVIDE A MORE SOLID AREA OF LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROADER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. THUNDER MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT THERE
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY STRONG FROM M-59
SOUTH...TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT TO BECOME STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MI MONDAY WILL REINFORCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO ANOTHER COOLER-THAN-NORMAL DAY BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE A DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED. HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING TO A NICE WARMING
TREND. SPRAWLING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
SET UP THURSDAY FRIDAY WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SIGNAL WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
THEY START TO FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT
WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE IN SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN
AND INCREASES INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY AS
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND ALLOW HIGHER WAVES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 150 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THAT IMPACTED SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS REMAIN PERSISTENT TODAY AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW CHANCES REMAIN TIED TO
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MBS AND FNT STILL SEEING THE BEST CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY START TO
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS LOW TIED WITH THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AS PEAK HEATING IS LOST AND HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF.  CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND AT OR
BELOW 5000 FT OVERNIGHT.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR A TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SS


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 292013
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
MOVED ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THESE
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT TODAY AND ARE NOW JUST STARTING TO THIN
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING.  TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE
CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA.  THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING.  THIS ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GOING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...TRI-CITIES AREA...AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE HOWEVER
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1
INCH.  GIVEN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A WARM MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT TEMPS TONIGHT TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS
ONLY DROPPING DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PROBABLY FOR RAIN
REMAINS HIGH HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY NOW WITH TIMING
THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...WHICH BLEEDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL NOW.

UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES EAST. RESULT WILL BE A
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY TOMORROW. SMALLER UPPER WAVES
LIFTING UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WILL HELP GENERATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE WAVES ARE HARDER TO TIME IN GENERAL BECAUSE OF THEIR
SMALLER SCALE...ESPECIALLY WHEN SOME ARE GENERATED/AFFECTED BY
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE HOW THESE
WAVES WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND THE
STRONG UPPER WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. GFS/NAM
REMAIN MORE IN LINE WITH THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY
THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WHILE THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY
THE NEW 12Z EURO ALLOW IT TO SLIP UP CLOSER TO OR EVEN INTO MICHIGAN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND SCENARIO WOULD DELAY THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...KEEPING IT POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
LONGER AND KEEPING RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...INITIAL SET-UP LOOKS THE SAME TO START SATURDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES
RISING JUST ABOVE 1.75 INCHES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHAT REMAINS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA SHOULD WORK
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DROP SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING.
EXPECTATION IS THAT FGEN AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING WILL HELP
PROVIDE A MORE SOLID AREA OF LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROADER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. THUNDER MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT THERE
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY STRONG FROM M-59
SOUTH...TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT TO BECOME STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MI MONDAY WILL REINFORCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO ANOTHER COOLER-THAN-NORMAL DAY BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE A DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED. HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING TO A NICE WARMING
TREND. SPRAWLING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
SET UP THURSDAY FRIDAY WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SIGNAL WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
THEY START TO FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT
WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE IN SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN
AND INCREASES INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY AS
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND ALLOW HIGHER WAVES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 150 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THAT IMPACTED SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS REMAIN PERSISTENT TODAY AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW CHANCES REMAIN TIED TO
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MBS AND FNT STILL SEEING THE BEST CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY START TO
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS LOW TIED WITH THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AS PEAK HEATING IS LOST AND HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF.  CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND AT OR
BELOW 5000 FT OVERNIGHT.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR A TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SS


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 292011
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
411 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AT THIS HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE AND ATTENDANT
DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/WARMTH HAS DESTABILIZED THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AIRMASS...WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE NOTED ON
LOCAL ANALYSIS. INITIAL VORT LOBE/CONGEALED COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HELPED IGNITE A RATHER VIGOROUS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE REALLY CONFINED ALL INTENSE CORES TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...NEGATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG...BUT BRIEF...
SUBSIDENCE REGIME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LINE HELPING QUELL ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

ABOVE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KICKING OFF ADDITION RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES
SO.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. ADDRESSING LOW END SEVERE
CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TWO PART PROCESS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WELL ORGANIZED SUBSIDENCE
REGIME WEST OF ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION MAY SUPPRESS THINGS FOR A
WHILE...EVENING PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE THE SUN
SETS. WOULD EXPECT BEST FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS ELEVATED CORE
POTENTIAL. DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ATTENDANT WET MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. OF COURSE...NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ONE OF THESE
WIND GUSTS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...OCCURRING BEHIND ACTUAL FRONT IN REGION OF INTENSIFYING RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT INCREASING FGEN SIGNATURES. BEST
MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY LOST...BUT DYNAMICS DEFINITELY
THERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. WILL ATTEMPT
SOME TIMING OF THIS STEADIER RAIN POTENTIAL...SWIPING CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SPLIT WEEKEND WITH WET WEATHER SATURDAY/DRY AND COOL SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSES FROM
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATELINE...TO A SPLIT/BLOCKY
(STRONG -EPO) PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH AMERICA.  NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
CONFINED NORTH OF THE BORDER...WITH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER 48.  WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DIGGING SOUTHEAST...WITH
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROLLING INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS...
WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 60S DEW POINTS INTO
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO "SCRAPE" BY THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY...WITH A GENERALLY
PACIFIC-DOMINATED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES/
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY WITH FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER LAKES FOR MONDAY.
NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE WILL PUSH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1028+MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING HANGING
ON FOR MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO QUEBEC.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  RAIN SATURDAY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF A
LINGERING WIND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITHIN FRONTAL CIRCULATION
AND AIDED BY JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY SO WILL
PROBABLY COMPROMISE/SMOOTH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL
TREND KEEPING RAIN GOING A LITTLE LONGER IN SPOTS.  RAIN PROBABLY
WON`T END NEAR SAGINAW BAY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-32
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SOUTH OF A HOUGHTON LAKE-HARRISVILLE LINE.  CLOUDS WILL THIN BEHIND
THE RAIN BAND...WITH INCREASING SUN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR
FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED
WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MATTERS.  AS CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COME INTO
FOCUS IN COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.  ONE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHETHER WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS CAN SLACK OFF.
ONE ISSUE WILL BE LOCATION OF COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING EXIT
REGION DYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE BOUNDARY`S SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND KEEP SOME GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TREND AWAY FROM FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FOR
NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS.  WILL STILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY ABOVE THE BRIDGE WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL
SLACK OFF OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE A CHILLY WIND OFF LAKE
HURON WON`T HELP...AND 60-65 ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (NORMAL HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM 67-70).  COOL START TO THE NIGHT WILL RAISE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING...STILL SOME ISSUES
WITH WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE THEN CAN
SEE SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN NEAR
FREEZING LOWS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC.  DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MID CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE TO THE
AREA.  MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO SPEAK OF...POSSIBLY SOME
FROST?

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY QUIET. THE EURO SHOWS OUR PERIOD
BEGINNING WITH THE PASSING OF A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH NO MOISTURE (OR ANY OTHER SUPPORT)
TO WORK WITH...SHOULD GO BY UNNOTICED. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY...THATS WHEN OUR RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN AMBITIOUS TO BRING POPS
IN LATELY...ALL TO RESULT IN NOT. GUT FEELING IS...MORE CONFIDENT
THAT WE WONT SEE ANY ACTUAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY TO BLEND WITH OTHERS...AS THIS
IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WITH A VERY SHARP DIURNAL DIP ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
IN THE WHEELHOUSE FOR EARLY JUNE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DIFFICULT FORECAST REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED...KICKING OFF CONVECTION
AT THIS HOUR. NICE LINE SEGMENT HAS FORMED EAST OF TVC...WHICH
MAY HOLD TOGETHER RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FIRE IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS. HAVE TRIED SOME TIMING AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST SOME
LOWER END IMPACTS UNTIL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS BETTER REALIZED.
ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...ALTHOUGH LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. COLD FRONT
SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
IFR CIGS AS COOL SURFACE AIR UNDERCUTS STILL WARM AIR ALOFT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS SATURDAY WITH LINGERING LOW OVERCAST AND
RAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT. INITIAL SOUTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY VEER NORTHWEST IN THE PROCESS...BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY
BY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SCA PRODUCING WINDS AND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 292011
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
411 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AT THIS HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE AND ATTENDANT
DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/WARMTH HAS DESTABILIZED THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AIRMASS...WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE NOTED ON
LOCAL ANALYSIS. INITIAL VORT LOBE/CONGEALED COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HELPED IGNITE A RATHER VIGOROUS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE REALLY CONFINED ALL INTENSE CORES TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...NEGATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG...BUT BRIEF...
SUBSIDENCE REGIME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LINE HELPING QUELL ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

ABOVE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KICKING OFF ADDITION RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES
SO.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. ADDRESSING LOW END SEVERE
CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TWO PART PROCESS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WELL ORGANIZED SUBSIDENCE
REGIME WEST OF ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION MAY SUPPRESS THINGS FOR A
WHILE...EVENING PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE THE SUN
SETS. WOULD EXPECT BEST FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS ELEVATED CORE
POTENTIAL. DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ATTENDANT WET MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. OF COURSE...NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ONE OF THESE
WIND GUSTS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD DEFINITELY
BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...OCCURRING BEHIND ACTUAL FRONT IN REGION OF INTENSIFYING RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT INCREASING FGEN SIGNATURES. BEST
MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY LOST...BUT DYNAMICS DEFINITELY
THERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. WILL ATTEMPT
SOME TIMING OF THIS STEADIER RAIN POTENTIAL...SWIPING CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SPLIT WEEKEND WITH WET WEATHER SATURDAY/DRY AND COOL SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSES FROM
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATELINE...TO A SPLIT/BLOCKY
(STRONG -EPO) PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH AMERICA.  NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
CONFINED NORTH OF THE BORDER...WITH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER 48.  WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DIGGING SOUTHEAST...WITH
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROLLING INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS...
WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 60S DEW POINTS INTO
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO "SCRAPE" BY THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY...WITH A GENERALLY
PACIFIC-DOMINATED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES/
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY WITH FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER LAKES FOR MONDAY.
NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE WILL PUSH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1028+MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING HANGING
ON FOR MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO QUEBEC.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  RAIN SATURDAY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF A
LINGERING WIND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITHIN FRONTAL CIRCULATION
AND AIDED BY JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY SO WILL
PROBABLY COMPROMISE/SMOOTH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL
TREND KEEPING RAIN GOING A LITTLE LONGER IN SPOTS.  RAIN PROBABLY
WON`T END NEAR SAGINAW BAY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-32
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SOUTH OF A HOUGHTON LAKE-HARRISVILLE LINE.  CLOUDS WILL THIN BEHIND
THE RAIN BAND...WITH INCREASING SUN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR
FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED
WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MATTERS.  AS CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COME INTO
FOCUS IN COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.  ONE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WHETHER WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS CAN SLACK OFF.
ONE ISSUE WILL BE LOCATION OF COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING EXIT
REGION DYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE BOUNDARY`S SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND KEEP SOME GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TREND AWAY FROM FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FOR
NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS.  WILL STILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY ABOVE THE BRIDGE WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL
SLACK OFF OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE A CHILLY WIND OFF LAKE
HURON WON`T HELP...AND 60-65 ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (NORMAL HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM 67-70).  COOL START TO THE NIGHT WILL RAISE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING...STILL SOME ISSUES
WITH WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE THEN CAN
SEE SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN NEAR
FREEZING LOWS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC.  DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MID CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE TO THE
AREA.  MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO SPEAK OF...POSSIBLY SOME
FROST?

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY QUIET. THE EURO SHOWS OUR PERIOD
BEGINNING WITH THE PASSING OF A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH NO MOISTURE (OR ANY OTHER SUPPORT)
TO WORK WITH...SHOULD GO BY UNNOTICED. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY...THATS WHEN OUR RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN AMBITIOUS TO BRING POPS
IN LATELY...ALL TO RESULT IN NOT. GUT FEELING IS...MORE CONFIDENT
THAT WE WONT SEE ANY ACTUAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY TO BLEND WITH OTHERS...AS THIS
IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WITH A VERY SHARP DIURNAL DIP ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
IN THE WHEELHOUSE FOR EARLY JUNE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DIFFICULT FORECAST REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED...KICKING OFF CONVECTION
AT THIS HOUR. NICE LINE SEGMENT HAS FORMED EAST OF TVC...WHICH
MAY HOLD TOGETHER RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FIRE IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS. HAVE TRIED SOME TIMING AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST SOME
LOWER END IMPACTS UNTIL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS BETTER REALIZED.
ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...ALTHOUGH LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. COLD FRONT
SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
IFR CIGS AS COOL SURFACE AIR UNDERCUTS STILL WARM AIR ALOFT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS SATURDAY WITH LINGERING LOW OVERCAST AND
RAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT. INITIAL SOUTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY VEER NORTHWEST IN THE PROCESS...BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY
BY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SCA PRODUCING WINDS AND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KGRR 291923
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COULD BE RATHER WET AS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S DESPITE SUNSHINE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-46 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 70S BY TUESDAY AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR IT/S BEEN LOW-TOPPED WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING.
THE STRONGER CELLS ARE CLOSER TO ST LOUIS MO BUT ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT
MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LI/S NEAR
-3 ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ATTM COUPLED WITH 1K J/K SBCAPE BUT NOT
MUCH TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WITH HELP TO FOCUS PCPN LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR POST FRONTAL. A 300 MB
JETLET SEEMS TO BE THE CAUSE OF THIS AS IT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN UPPER
JET FARTHER NORTH. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WAVE WILL CAUSE MORE PCPN OVER THE SRN CWA.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR SMALL ATTM DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD BE A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ...THERE IS LITTLE TO
FOCUS ANY CONVECTION AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THAT SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND FILLS AND A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING THAT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF IFR BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. STEADIER RAIN
WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
AFTER 12Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY. LOOK FOR WAVES TO BUILD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A SCA
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA TO BELOW NORMAL SOUTHEAST. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND A HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS INCH. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS
OF ABOUT 2 INCHES WOULD BE NECESSARY TO PUSH SEVERAL OF THE MID-
MICHIGAN RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291923
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COULD BE RATHER WET AS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S DESPITE SUNSHINE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-46 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 70S BY TUESDAY AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR IT/S BEEN LOW-TOPPED WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING.
THE STRONGER CELLS ARE CLOSER TO ST LOUIS MO BUT ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT
MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LI/S NEAR
-3 ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ATTM COUPLED WITH 1K J/K SBCAPE BUT NOT
MUCH TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WITH HELP TO FOCUS PCPN LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR POST FRONTAL. A 300 MB
JETLET SEEMS TO BE THE CAUSE OF THIS AS IT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN UPPER
JET FARTHER NORTH. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WAVE WILL CAUSE MORE PCPN OVER THE SRN CWA.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR SMALL ATTM DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD BE A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ...THERE IS LITTLE TO
FOCUS ANY CONVECTION AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THAT SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND FILLS AND A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING THAT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF IFR BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. STEADIER RAIN
WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
AFTER 12Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY. LOOK FOR WAVES TO BUILD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A SCA
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA TO BELOW NORMAL SOUTHEAST. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND A HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS INCH. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS
OF ABOUT 2 INCHES WOULD BE NECESSARY TO PUSH SEVERAL OF THE MID-
MICHIGAN RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 291922
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COULD BE RATHER WET AS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S DESPITE SUNSHINE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-46 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 70S BY TUESDAY AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR IT/S BEEN LOW-TOPPED WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING.
THE STRONGER CELLS ARE CLOSER TO ST LOUIS MO BUT ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT
MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LI/S NEAR
-3 ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ATTM COUPLED WITH 1K J/K SBCAPE BUT NOT
MUCH TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WITH HELP TO FOCUS PCPN LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR POST FRONTAL. A 300 MB
JETLET SEEMS TO BE THE CAUSE OF THIS AS IT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN UPPER
JET FARTHER NORTH. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WAVE WILL CAUSE MORE PCPN OVER THE SRN CWA.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR SMALL ATTM DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD BE A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ...THERE IS LITTLE TO
FOCUS ANY CONVECTION AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THAT SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND FILLS AND A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING THAT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF IFR BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. STEADIER RAIN
WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
AFTER 12Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA TO BELOW NORMAL SOUTHEAST. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND A HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS INCH. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS
OF ABOUT 2 INCHES WOULD BE NECESSARY TO PUSH SEVERAL OF THE MID-
MICHIGAN RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 291922
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COULD BE RATHER WET AS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S DESPITE SUNSHINE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-46 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 70S BY TUESDAY AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR IT/S BEEN LOW-TOPPED WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING.
THE STRONGER CELLS ARE CLOSER TO ST LOUIS MO BUT ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT
MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LI/S NEAR
-3 ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ATTM COUPLED WITH 1K J/K SBCAPE BUT NOT
MUCH TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WITH HELP TO FOCUS PCPN LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR POST FRONTAL. A 300 MB
JETLET SEEMS TO BE THE CAUSE OF THIS AS IT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN UPPER
JET FARTHER NORTH. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WAVE WILL CAUSE MORE PCPN OVER THE SRN CWA.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR SMALL ATTM DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD BE A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ...THERE IS LITTLE TO
FOCUS ANY CONVECTION AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THAT SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND FILLS AND A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING THAT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF IFR BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. STEADIER RAIN
WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
AFTER 12Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA TO BELOW NORMAL SOUTHEAST. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND A HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS INCH. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS
OF ABOUT 2 INCHES WOULD BE NECESSARY TO PUSH SEVERAL OF THE MID-
MICHIGAN RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291812
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
212 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND HUMID
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW WARM UP
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECT THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE ISSUE TODAY IS THE THREAT FOR DAY TIME CONVECTION WITH THE
SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT
ISSUE IS THE RAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE
DAY. FINALLY THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

IT IS RATHER CLEAR FROM LOOPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS (VARIOUS
MODELS) THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SURFACE TO 850 MEAN DEW
POINTS A WARM FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS TO LOOK A TOUCH MOIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA (EXCEPT NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE) FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK... UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH (JET IS FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST YET). THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THAT GO NORTH OF OUR
CWA. MY SPIN ON THIS IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID EVENING THEN WE
WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH. SEEMS THE RAIN WILL
LARGELY BE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SATURDAY EVEN THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
OVER 40 KNOTS. MOSTLY THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A COLD RAIN THAN
ANYTHING ELSE. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE... AS I LIKE TO CALL IT... JET
LIFT EVENTS (WE ARE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET).
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN
SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SO SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AND IT WILL GET CHILLY. WE MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES (I DID NOT ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS AS I WAS NOT
SURE OF THIS JUST YET). THE GLITCH THOUGH TO WATCH WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WE HAVE A SHEARING OUT SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING THROUGH. IF THE MODELS ARE JUST A TOUCH TO FAST
AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH (TYPICAL ERROR FOR THIS SORT OF THING) WE MAY
SEE THE SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO MATTER WHAT SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER. SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NNE FCST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE.

AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING THAT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF IFR BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. STEADIER RAIN
WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
AFTER 12Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL NEED SOME SORT OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR
SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND BUILD LARGE WAVES WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...WDM



000
FXUS63 KGRR 291812
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
212 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND HUMID
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW WARM UP
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECT THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE ISSUE TODAY IS THE THREAT FOR DAY TIME CONVECTION WITH THE
SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT
ISSUE IS THE RAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE
DAY. FINALLY THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

IT IS RATHER CLEAR FROM LOOPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS (VARIOUS
MODELS) THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SURFACE TO 850 MEAN DEW
POINTS A WARM FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS TO LOOK A TOUCH MOIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA (EXCEPT NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE) FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK... UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH (JET IS FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST YET). THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THAT GO NORTH OF OUR
CWA. MY SPIN ON THIS IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID EVENING THEN WE
WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH. SEEMS THE RAIN WILL
LARGELY BE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SATURDAY EVEN THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
OVER 40 KNOTS. MOSTLY THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A COLD RAIN THAN
ANYTHING ELSE. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE... AS I LIKE TO CALL IT... JET
LIFT EVENTS (WE ARE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET).
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN
SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SO SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AND IT WILL GET CHILLY. WE MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES (I DID NOT ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS AS I WAS NOT
SURE OF THIS JUST YET). THE GLITCH THOUGH TO WATCH WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WE HAVE A SHEARING OUT SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING THROUGH. IF THE MODELS ARE JUST A TOUCH TO FAST
AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH (TYPICAL ERROR FOR THIS SORT OF THING) WE MAY
SEE THE SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO MATTER WHAT SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER. SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NNE FCST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE.

AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING THAT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF IFR BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. STEADIER RAIN
WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
AFTER 12Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL NEED SOME SORT OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR
SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND BUILD LARGE WAVES WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291750
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
150 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015


.AVIATION...

RAIN SHOWERS THAT IMPACTED SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS REMAIN PERSISTENT TODAY AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW CHANCES REMAIN TIED TO
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MBS AND FNT STILL SEEING THE BEST CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY START TO
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS LOW TIED WITH THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AS PEAK HEATING IS LOST AND HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF.  CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND AT OR
BELOW 5000 FT OVERNIGHT.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR A TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1044 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WHICH IS WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND SHEAR IS LOCATED. THE TRI
CITIES AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP QUICKLY OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOIST TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHES 1.30 INCHES. ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER. THERE IS CONCERN WITH THE AMOUNT
OF DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AS SEEN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA AND WHETHER THAT CAN WORK IN OVER THE
CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF STRONG
POLAR LOW DIGGING INTO WESTERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...JUST BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ELEVATED
WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. ENTIRE CWA WILL EFFECTIVELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY 12Z-14Z. HOWEVER, SLOWLY RETREATING EAST COAST
ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A COMPONENT OF SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE DETROIT
AREA NORTH TOWARD PORT HURON. WINDS WILL NOT VEER ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE LAKE SHADOW EFFECTS ACROSS THE EAST, SO, WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE, LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR THE METRO AREA . INSTEAD, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE MAXIMUM TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS CONFIRM MODEL PROGS WHICH INDICATE
TDS RISING INTO THE MID 60S BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT CU
COVERAGE, SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE RISING TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WEAKLY
SHEARED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. LACK OF FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING
MECHANISM WILL RENDER UPDRAFT INITIATION CONDITIONAL ON POCKETS OF
PREFERENTIAL HEATING AND BROAD/WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION.
NOTHING BETTER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND LOCALES WEST OF U.S. 23,
GREATER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING WILL INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE AS WELL AS STORM POTENTIAL TO
CAPITALIZE ON DRY MID-LEVELS & WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ENTIRELY DEPENDENT DIABATIC COOLING.

LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY EVENING CONVECTION TO EXPIRE
BY SUNSET, BUT NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL EVENTUALLY REPLENISH WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF A LOW COVERAGE OF WEAKLY SHEARED MULTICELL
TYPE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK OF A DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
ELIMINATES ANY NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL
MUCH BELOW 70 IN SOUPY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DEEP UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC
ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. A
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS ERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS LOWER MI TIED TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.8 IN/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SE MI ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO PERHAPS
MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER MOST OF SE MI. SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION /TIMING OF WHICH IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
STAGE IN THE FCST/. THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES/S/ SUGGEST A REGION OF CONVECTION ON SAT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
WHICH ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SAT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /CAPE GREATER
THAN 1K J/KG/ AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF ANY UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATIVE CONVECTION SUGGESTS A RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION BECOMES HIGHLY SUSPECT AS IT IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THUS DEVELOPS A QUASI STATIONARY
MCS OVER SRN MI. THE PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN UPPER WAVE SHOULD
RESULT IN A FASTER FRONTAL PUSH THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO SE MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE N AND NE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUSTAIN THIS COOL AND DRY AIR
AMIDST E-NE FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO
A MODEST WARMING TREND.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...PRECEDING THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE
ERIE SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE
WINDS TO THE N-NW. AN INCREASING GRADIENT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF MUCH
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SS
UPDATE.......SS
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291750
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
150 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015


.AVIATION...

RAIN SHOWERS THAT IMPACTED SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS REMAIN PERSISTENT TODAY AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW CHANCES REMAIN TIED TO
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MBS AND FNT STILL SEEING THE BEST CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY START TO
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS LOW TIED WITH THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AS PEAK HEATING IS LOST AND HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF.  CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND AT OR
BELOW 5000 FT OVERNIGHT.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR A TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1044 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WHICH IS WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND SHEAR IS LOCATED. THE TRI
CITIES AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP QUICKLY OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOIST TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHES 1.30 INCHES. ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER. THERE IS CONCERN WITH THE AMOUNT
OF DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AS SEEN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA AND WHETHER THAT CAN WORK IN OVER THE
CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF STRONG
POLAR LOW DIGGING INTO WESTERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...JUST BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ELEVATED
WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. ENTIRE CWA WILL EFFECTIVELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY 12Z-14Z. HOWEVER, SLOWLY RETREATING EAST COAST
ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A COMPONENT OF SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE DETROIT
AREA NORTH TOWARD PORT HURON. WINDS WILL NOT VEER ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE LAKE SHADOW EFFECTS ACROSS THE EAST, SO, WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE, LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR THE METRO AREA . INSTEAD, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE MAXIMUM TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS CONFIRM MODEL PROGS WHICH INDICATE
TDS RISING INTO THE MID 60S BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT CU
COVERAGE, SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE RISING TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WEAKLY
SHEARED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. LACK OF FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING
MECHANISM WILL RENDER UPDRAFT INITIATION CONDITIONAL ON POCKETS OF
PREFERENTIAL HEATING AND BROAD/WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION.
NOTHING BETTER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND LOCALES WEST OF U.S. 23,
GREATER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING WILL INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE AS WELL AS STORM POTENTIAL TO
CAPITALIZE ON DRY MID-LEVELS & WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ENTIRELY DEPENDENT DIABATIC COOLING.

LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY EVENING CONVECTION TO EXPIRE
BY SUNSET, BUT NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL EVENTUALLY REPLENISH WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF A LOW COVERAGE OF WEAKLY SHEARED MULTICELL
TYPE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK OF A DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
ELIMINATES ANY NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL
MUCH BELOW 70 IN SOUPY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DEEP UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC
ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. A
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS ERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS LOWER MI TIED TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.8 IN/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SE MI ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO PERHAPS
MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER MOST OF SE MI. SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION /TIMING OF WHICH IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
STAGE IN THE FCST/. THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES/S/ SUGGEST A REGION OF CONVECTION ON SAT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
WHICH ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SAT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /CAPE GREATER
THAN 1K J/KG/ AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF ANY UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATIVE CONVECTION SUGGESTS A RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION BECOMES HIGHLY SUSPECT AS IT IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THUS DEVELOPS A QUASI STATIONARY
MCS OVER SRN MI. THE PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN UPPER WAVE SHOULD
RESULT IN A FASTER FRONTAL PUSH THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO SE MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE N AND NE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUSTAIN THIS COOL AND DRY AIR
AMIDST E-NE FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO
A MODEST WARMING TREND.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...PRECEDING THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE
ERIE SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE
WINDS TO THE N-NW. AN INCREASING GRADIENT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF MUCH
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SS
UPDATE.......SS
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 291748
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
148 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM OVERNIGHT THINKING.
RATHER AGGRESSIVE SUB H8 MOISTENING CONTINUES TO STEADILY ADVECT
NORTH IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. DOWN LOW MOISTENING
AND NO INHIBITION THROUGH THE LOW/MID LEVELS WORKING TO KICK OFF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN. MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS JUST TO OUR WEST TIED TO EMBEDDED WEAK WAVE
AND REMNANT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. THIS BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST...PERHAPS IMPACTING EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SAID MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER SOUTH. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THREAT IS NOT ZERO. AREA REMAINS WITHIN SPC MARGINAL
CATEGORY FOR SUCH...WHICH IS FULLY SUPPORTED BY MODIFIED HIGH RES
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS AND ML CAPE
UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND NOTHING TO EFFECTIVELY STOP QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST
CONVECTION SUPPORTS MORE OF A WIND THAN HAIL THREAT...WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS TIED TO PRECIP LOADING AND USE OFF DEEPER SHEAR. PWAT
VALUES SURGING NORTH OF 1.30 INCHES AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS SUPPORTS SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STEADY
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT...IN FACT IT WILL NOT
QUITE EXIT BY 12Z. DEEP SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN MI. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO...THIS WILL LIFT INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.

THIS MORNING...SHARP SUB-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEGINNING AT 09Z...A BIT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
THIS SOUPIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 300-500J/KG IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY INCLINED TO POP SOME SHRA IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...
WHICH IS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN LIMITED PROGRESS OF RICH THETA-
E AIR. BUT A SMALL CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA SOUTH OF M-32 IS
REASONABLE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN WE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON? SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY NEAR LAKE MI IN
NW LOWER MI...AND IN MOST OF EASTERN UPPER. BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHOOT UP TOWARD 1K J/KG BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF US-
131 IN NORTHERN LOWER. THIS IS UNCAPPED (A SLIGHT WARM NOSE AT 925
IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE PAST 18Z)...AND ANY LITTLE BOUNDARY WILL SET
THINGS OFF. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD CAPE MUCH
PAST THAT W/O DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. WILL HAVE SCT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 30-40KT RANGE IS HEALTHY BUT NOT OFF THE CHARTS. HODOGRAPH IS
NOT QUITE A STRAIGHT LINE...GENERALLY SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
SW ALOFT...BUT SHEAR IS DEFINITELY MORE SPEED AND LESS DIRECTIONAL.
MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SOMEWHAT BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN NE LOWER...
WHICH WOULD AMP UP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT IN GENERAL... SHEAR/
INSTABILITY PROGS SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SOME
SUPERCELLS AT TIMES. THE LATTER WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND/PERHAPS HAIL THREAT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT...MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND BROADER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN...LOWERING BELOW 1K J/KG OF
MUCAPE. THIS WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EASTERN UPPER TO MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW
BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST CONCERNS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER
SPOTS SEEING A HARD FREEZE (28F OR LOWER) ONE OR BOTH NIGHTS.

WELL...THE MONTH OF MAY IS ON ITS WAY OUT...AND WE ARE EXCITED TO
WELCOME THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON JUNE 1ST. WHAT BETTER
WAY TO CELEBRATE THAN TO TALK ABOUT FROST AND/OR FREEZE ISSUES?
WAIT...WHAT?!?! SADLY...AS MANY LONGTIME RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN KNOW ALL TOO WELL...THIS PLACE IS PRONE TO SOME CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT IN THE YEAR...AND IT WOULD
APPEAR WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF CANADIAN COOLNESS AS WE PUSH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THIS CASE...THE CULPRIT
IS OUR OLD FRIEND JAMES BAY HIGH PRESSURE...PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STICK
AROUND FOR QUITE SOME TIME. FOR US METEOROLOGISTS...THIS IS A REALLY
SIMPLE PATTERN...AS THERE WILL BE BASICALLY NO CHANCE FOR RAIN
COURTESY OF SOME VERY DRY AIR...MINUS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PESKY
SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR A TIME INTO SATURDAY.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER RECENT DAYS...QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
FIRST THING SATURDAY WILL SEND THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A LOOP...WITH A
TIGHT AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.. THAT FEATURE WILL FIND ITSELF INCREASINGLY DRIVEN INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AS OUR ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FLEXES
ITS MUSCLE...AND SOME VERY DRY AIR (PWAT VALUES DOWN BELOW 0.30
INCHES) ROLLS IN QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SAID FGEN FORCING
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH INITIAL REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRY TO KEEP A BAND OF RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST...THERE IS STILL A
TOUCH OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE INSISTENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAKISH
SHORTWAVE FEATURE HELPING EXTEND THE RAIN CHANCE A BIT LONGER IN THE
DAY...AND GIVEN THE SETUP (AND LOTS OF EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
EVENTS OVER THE YEARS)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF RAIN DID INDEED TAKE
A FEW MORE HOURS TO EXIT THE AREA.

THAT WILL ALL BE HISTORY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RAPIDLY CLEARS SKIES OUT.
THAT SETUP...IN COMBINATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRONOUNCED THERMAL
TROUGHING (H8 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD 0-2C) SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
COOL NIGHT. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...AN INFLUX OF VERY DRY DEW
POINTS SHOULD OFFSET THE WET SOILS...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF
WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG IN SPOTS. FROST
CONCERNS ALSO ARISE SIMPLY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVING...THOUGH AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WE DO LOOK TO HAVE A BIT
OF A LINGERING GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72. NONETHELESS...HAVE NO DOUBT THE USUAL SUSPECT SITES
WILL DECOUPLE AND HAVE A CHANCE TO CRASH THROUGH THE LOWER 30S...AND
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. A COLD START SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY BUT
STILL COOLISH SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR FROST/
FREEZE ISSUES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PARKS
ITSELF OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER EACH
RUN...WITH LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SIMPLY PUT...IF YOU HAVEN`T PLANTED YOUR
GARDEN YET...HANG TIGHT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS!


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK (AND
WELCOME THE MONTH OF JUNE)...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FROST IN MANY INLAND AREAS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL GRADUAL
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH BY WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH
MAYBE (THAT`S A BIG MAYBE) A LITTLE BETTER SHOT FOR ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HISTORY TIME AND AGAIN IN THESE SETUPS STRONGLY
ARGUES OUR LOCAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS WE STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WEAK SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING...WITH MY GUT
FEELING MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DIFFICULT FORECAST REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED...KICKING OFF CONVECTION
AT THIS HOUR. NICE LINE SEGMENT HAS FORMED EAST OF TVC...WHICH
MAY HOLD TOGETHER RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FIRE IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS. HAVE TRIED SOME TIMING AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST SOME
LOWER END IMPACTS UNTIL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS BETTER REALIZED.
ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...ALTHOUGH LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. COLD FRONT
SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
IFR CIGS AS COOL SURFACE AIR UNDERCUTS STILL WARM AIR ALOFT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS SATURDAY WITH LINGERING LOW OVERCAST AND
RAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EXITS LATER ON SATURDAY. SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS AIRMASS GETS MORE HUMID UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT PICK
UP FROM THE N TO NW ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MI. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 291748
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
148 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM OVERNIGHT THINKING.
RATHER AGGRESSIVE SUB H8 MOISTENING CONTINUES TO STEADILY ADVECT
NORTH IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. DOWN LOW MOISTENING
AND NO INHIBITION THROUGH THE LOW/MID LEVELS WORKING TO KICK OFF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN. MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS JUST TO OUR WEST TIED TO EMBEDDED WEAK WAVE
AND REMNANT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. THIS BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST...PERHAPS IMPACTING EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SAID MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER SOUTH. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THREAT IS NOT ZERO. AREA REMAINS WITHIN SPC MARGINAL
CATEGORY FOR SUCH...WHICH IS FULLY SUPPORTED BY MODIFIED HIGH RES
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS AND ML CAPE
UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND NOTHING TO EFFECTIVELY STOP QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST
CONVECTION SUPPORTS MORE OF A WIND THAN HAIL THREAT...WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS TIED TO PRECIP LOADING AND USE OFF DEEPER SHEAR. PWAT
VALUES SURGING NORTH OF 1.30 INCHES AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS SUPPORTS SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STEADY
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT...IN FACT IT WILL NOT
QUITE EXIT BY 12Z. DEEP SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN MI. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO...THIS WILL LIFT INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.

THIS MORNING...SHARP SUB-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEGINNING AT 09Z...A BIT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
THIS SOUPIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 300-500J/KG IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY INCLINED TO POP SOME SHRA IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...
WHICH IS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN LIMITED PROGRESS OF RICH THETA-
E AIR. BUT A SMALL CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA SOUTH OF M-32 IS
REASONABLE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN WE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON? SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY NEAR LAKE MI IN
NW LOWER MI...AND IN MOST OF EASTERN UPPER. BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHOOT UP TOWARD 1K J/KG BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF US-
131 IN NORTHERN LOWER. THIS IS UNCAPPED (A SLIGHT WARM NOSE AT 925
IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE PAST 18Z)...AND ANY LITTLE BOUNDARY WILL SET
THINGS OFF. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD CAPE MUCH
PAST THAT W/O DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. WILL HAVE SCT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 30-40KT RANGE IS HEALTHY BUT NOT OFF THE CHARTS. HODOGRAPH IS
NOT QUITE A STRAIGHT LINE...GENERALLY SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
SW ALOFT...BUT SHEAR IS DEFINITELY MORE SPEED AND LESS DIRECTIONAL.
MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SOMEWHAT BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN NE LOWER...
WHICH WOULD AMP UP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT IN GENERAL... SHEAR/
INSTABILITY PROGS SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SOME
SUPERCELLS AT TIMES. THE LATTER WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND/PERHAPS HAIL THREAT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT...MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND BROADER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN...LOWERING BELOW 1K J/KG OF
MUCAPE. THIS WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EASTERN UPPER TO MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW
BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST CONCERNS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER
SPOTS SEEING A HARD FREEZE (28F OR LOWER) ONE OR BOTH NIGHTS.

WELL...THE MONTH OF MAY IS ON ITS WAY OUT...AND WE ARE EXCITED TO
WELCOME THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON JUNE 1ST. WHAT BETTER
WAY TO CELEBRATE THAN TO TALK ABOUT FROST AND/OR FREEZE ISSUES?
WAIT...WHAT?!?! SADLY...AS MANY LONGTIME RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN KNOW ALL TOO WELL...THIS PLACE IS PRONE TO SOME CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT IN THE YEAR...AND IT WOULD
APPEAR WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF CANADIAN COOLNESS AS WE PUSH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THIS CASE...THE CULPRIT
IS OUR OLD FRIEND JAMES BAY HIGH PRESSURE...PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STICK
AROUND FOR QUITE SOME TIME. FOR US METEOROLOGISTS...THIS IS A REALLY
SIMPLE PATTERN...AS THERE WILL BE BASICALLY NO CHANCE FOR RAIN
COURTESY OF SOME VERY DRY AIR...MINUS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PESKY
SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR A TIME INTO SATURDAY.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER RECENT DAYS...QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
FIRST THING SATURDAY WILL SEND THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A LOOP...WITH A
TIGHT AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.. THAT FEATURE WILL FIND ITSELF INCREASINGLY DRIVEN INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AS OUR ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FLEXES
ITS MUSCLE...AND SOME VERY DRY AIR (PWAT VALUES DOWN BELOW 0.30
INCHES) ROLLS IN QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SAID FGEN FORCING
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH INITIAL REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRY TO KEEP A BAND OF RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST...THERE IS STILL A
TOUCH OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE INSISTENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAKISH
SHORTWAVE FEATURE HELPING EXTEND THE RAIN CHANCE A BIT LONGER IN THE
DAY...AND GIVEN THE SETUP (AND LOTS OF EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
EVENTS OVER THE YEARS)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF RAIN DID INDEED TAKE
A FEW MORE HOURS TO EXIT THE AREA.

THAT WILL ALL BE HISTORY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RAPIDLY CLEARS SKIES OUT.
THAT SETUP...IN COMBINATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRONOUNCED THERMAL
TROUGHING (H8 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD 0-2C) SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
COOL NIGHT. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...AN INFLUX OF VERY DRY DEW
POINTS SHOULD OFFSET THE WET SOILS...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF
WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG IN SPOTS. FROST
CONCERNS ALSO ARISE SIMPLY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVING...THOUGH AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WE DO LOOK TO HAVE A BIT
OF A LINGERING GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72. NONETHELESS...HAVE NO DOUBT THE USUAL SUSPECT SITES
WILL DECOUPLE AND HAVE A CHANCE TO CRASH THROUGH THE LOWER 30S...AND
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. A COLD START SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY BUT
STILL COOLISH SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR FROST/
FREEZE ISSUES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PARKS
ITSELF OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER EACH
RUN...WITH LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SIMPLY PUT...IF YOU HAVEN`T PLANTED YOUR
GARDEN YET...HANG TIGHT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS!


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK (AND
WELCOME THE MONTH OF JUNE)...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FROST IN MANY INLAND AREAS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL GRADUAL
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH BY WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH
MAYBE (THAT`S A BIG MAYBE) A LITTLE BETTER SHOT FOR ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HISTORY TIME AND AGAIN IN THESE SETUPS STRONGLY
ARGUES OUR LOCAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS WE STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WEAK SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING...WITH MY GUT
FEELING MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DIFFICULT FORECAST REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED...KICKING OFF CONVECTION
AT THIS HOUR. NICE LINE SEGMENT HAS FORMED EAST OF TVC...WHICH
MAY HOLD TOGETHER RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FIRE IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS. HAVE TRIED SOME TIMING AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST SOME
LOWER END IMPACTS UNTIL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS BETTER REALIZED.
ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...ALTHOUGH LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. COLD FRONT
SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
IFR CIGS AS COOL SURFACE AIR UNDERCUTS STILL WARM AIR ALOFT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS SATURDAY WITH LINGERING LOW OVERCAST AND
RAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EXITS LATER ON SATURDAY. SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS AIRMASS GETS MORE HUMID UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT PICK
UP FROM THE N TO NW ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MI. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KMQT 291743
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PACE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL PLAYS A BIG PART IN UNCERTAINTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOW TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
BATCH OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS NOW OVER SW WI AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS...AND ALMOST ALL OF THAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LAKE BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY HELP TO LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT RISK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND OTHER
VERY SHORT TERM DETAILS.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE
A FEW REASONS FOR THIS ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE. FIRST...THE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY SNOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER MI...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPORARILY SLOW IT DOWN.
SECOND...THE SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST FORCING.
THIRD...MEAN FLOW/STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN AREA OF GREATEST PRECIP FROM IRONWOOD
TO MARQUETTE...WITH 1-2 INCHES (OR MORE) SHOWN IN THIS AREA.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RECENT
RAINFALL...WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA BY 12Z MON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF A 1033MB HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NRN STREAM RIDGING OVER FAR WRN CANADA/ALASKA VCNTY THAT HAS BEEN A
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MANY WEEKS...AND REALLY MUCH OF THIS YEAR...
WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE UPCOMING CHANGES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER PATTERN (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO
THAT...ONE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE S INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IS STILL
VERY STRONG IN NW CANADA/ALASKA (500MB HEIGHTS AT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVG). WITH THE COLD AIR MASS...THERE
WILL BE TWO NIGHTS WITH FROST LIKELY (SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT). AS FOR
PCPN...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA...SEVERAL DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL. DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE NW CONUS TROF SENDS ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM.

BEGINNING SAT...AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLICING THRU LWR MI
AND HEADING SE WHILE THE CENTER OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WEAK SFC WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK COULD RESULT IN SOME -RA LINGERING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL
(AROUND KMNM) IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CAA/BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WITH FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO HOVER AT OR BLO 0C OVER WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE N TO THE MID/UPPER 50S S. AT LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THINNING OUT FROM NW TO SE THRU THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE NIGHT...NOT QUITE A PERFECT
LOCATION FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE FOR WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
AT THAT POSITION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
INTO NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...WON`T CONSIDER THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
MIN TEMPS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL AID RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WITH MINS AS LOW AS THE
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS AND MID/UPPER
30S LAKESIDE. SHOULD BE COLDEST INTERIOR W HALF. FROST/FREEZE IS
LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.

WHILE THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SFC HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT E ON SUN...
ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LAKE
BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S N TO THE LWR 60S SCNTRL/INTERIOR W. MANY LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S.

ON SUN NIGHT...GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO UNDER A QUARTER
INCH OVER THE E HALF WITH THE NAM DOWN TO ALMOST ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE CNTRL...BOTH MODELS LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING BACK INTO UPPER MI...SUN NIGHT COULD END UP AS COLD AS
SAT NIGHT IN MANY AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS.
OVERALL...MIN TEMP RANGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT...BUT
COLDEST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. WILL SEE ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE IN THE
INTERIOR.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MESO HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY MON.
SO...LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...THOUGH THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS ON SUN. IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKES.

TUE THRU THU...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ENSURE ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROF BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS AND LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS
UTILIZED. THIS RESULTS IN SCHC TO CHC POPS WED INCREASING SLIGHTLY
FOR THU. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH INCREASING
DWPTS GIVING A SUMMER FEEL TO THE WARMTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON
IS LOWER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND KSAW...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291444
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1044 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WHICH IS WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND SHEAR IS LOCATED. THE TRI
CITIES AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP QUICKLY OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOIST TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHES 1.30 INCHES. ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER. THERE IS CONCERN WITH THE AMOUNT
OF DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AS SEEN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA AND WHETHER THAT CAN WORK IN OVER THE
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 739 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LOW PROBABILITY OF A TSTORM AT ALL THE AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND ALSO EXPECT LOW
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DETROIT AREA. THUS, DID NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH FIRM SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 18 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR A 5KFT CIG
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD A 5KFT CIG DEVELOP, THE PREFERRED
TIME WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING...APPROX 18-00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR A TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF STRONG
POLAR LOW DIGGING INTO WESTERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...JUST BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ELEVATED
WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. ENTIRE CWA WILL EFFECTIVELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY 12Z-14Z. HOWEVER, SLOWLY RETREATING EAST COAST
ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A COMPONENT OF SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE DETROIT
AREA NORTH TOWARD PORT HURON. WINDS WILL NOT VEER ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE LAKE SHADOW EFFECTS ACROSS THE EAST, SO, WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE, LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR THE METRO AREA . INSTEAD, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE MAXIMUM TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS CONFIRM MODEL PROGS WHICH INDICATE
TDS RISING INTO THE MID 60S BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT CU
COVERAGE, SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE RISING TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WEAKLY
SHEARED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. LACK OF FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING
MECHANISM WILL RENDER UPDRAFT INITIATION CONDITIONAL ON POCKETS OF
PREFERENTIAL HEATING AND BROAD/WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION.
NOTHING BETTER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND LOCALES WEST OF U.S. 23,
GREATER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING WILL INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE AS WELL AS STORM POTENTIAL TO
CAPITALIZE ON DRY MID-LEVELS & WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ENTIRELY DEPENDENT DIABATIC COOLING.

LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY EVENING CONVECTION TO EXPIRE
BY SUNSET, BUT NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL EVENTUALLY REPLENISH WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF A LOW COVERAGE OF WEAKLY SHEARED MULTICELL
TYPE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK OF A DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
ELIMINATES ANY NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL
MUCH BELOW 70 IN SOUPY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DEEP UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC
ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. A
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS ERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS LOWER MI TIED TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.8 IN/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SE MI ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO PERHAPS
MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER MOST OF SE MI. SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION /TIMING OF WHICH IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
STAGE IN THE FCST/. THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES/S/ SUGGEST A REGION OF CONVECTION ON SAT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
WHICH ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SAT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /CAPE GREATER
THAN 1K J/KG/ AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF ANY UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATIVE CONVECTION SUGGESTS A RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION BECOMES HIGHLY SUSPECT AS IT IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THUS DEVELOPS A QUASI STATIONARY
MCS OVER SRN MI. THE PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN UPPER WAVE SHOULD
RESULT IN A FASTER FRONTAL PUSH THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO SE MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE N AND NE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUSTAIN THIS COOL AND DRY AIR
AMIDST E-NE FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO
A MODEST WARMING TREND.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...PRECEDING THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE
ERIE SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE
WINDS TO THE N-NW. AN INCREASING GRADIENT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF MUCH
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SS
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291444
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1044 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WHICH IS WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND SHEAR IS LOCATED. THE TRI
CITIES AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP QUICKLY OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOIST TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHES 1.30 INCHES. ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER. THERE IS CONCERN WITH THE AMOUNT
OF DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AS SEEN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA AND WHETHER THAT CAN WORK IN OVER THE
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 739 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LOW PROBABILITY OF A TSTORM AT ALL THE AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND ALSO EXPECT LOW
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DETROIT AREA. THUS, DID NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH FIRM SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 18 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR A 5KFT CIG
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD A 5KFT CIG DEVELOP, THE PREFERRED
TIME WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING...APPROX 18-00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR A TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF STRONG
POLAR LOW DIGGING INTO WESTERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...JUST BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ELEVATED
WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. ENTIRE CWA WILL EFFECTIVELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY 12Z-14Z. HOWEVER, SLOWLY RETREATING EAST COAST
ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A COMPONENT OF SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE DETROIT
AREA NORTH TOWARD PORT HURON. WINDS WILL NOT VEER ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE LAKE SHADOW EFFECTS ACROSS THE EAST, SO, WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE, LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR THE METRO AREA . INSTEAD, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE MAXIMUM TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS CONFIRM MODEL PROGS WHICH INDICATE
TDS RISING INTO THE MID 60S BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT CU
COVERAGE, SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE RISING TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WEAKLY
SHEARED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. LACK OF FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING
MECHANISM WILL RENDER UPDRAFT INITIATION CONDITIONAL ON POCKETS OF
PREFERENTIAL HEATING AND BROAD/WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION.
NOTHING BETTER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND LOCALES WEST OF U.S. 23,
GREATER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING WILL INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE AS WELL AS STORM POTENTIAL TO
CAPITALIZE ON DRY MID-LEVELS & WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ENTIRELY DEPENDENT DIABATIC COOLING.

LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY EVENING CONVECTION TO EXPIRE
BY SUNSET, BUT NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL EVENTUALLY REPLENISH WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF A LOW COVERAGE OF WEAKLY SHEARED MULTICELL
TYPE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK OF A DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
ELIMINATES ANY NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL
MUCH BELOW 70 IN SOUPY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DEEP UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC
ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. A
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS ERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS LOWER MI TIED TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.8 IN/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SE MI ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO PERHAPS
MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER MOST OF SE MI. SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION /TIMING OF WHICH IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
STAGE IN THE FCST/. THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES/S/ SUGGEST A REGION OF CONVECTION ON SAT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
WHICH ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SAT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /CAPE GREATER
THAN 1K J/KG/ AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF ANY UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATIVE CONVECTION SUGGESTS A RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION BECOMES HIGHLY SUSPECT AS IT IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THUS DEVELOPS A QUASI STATIONARY
MCS OVER SRN MI. THE PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN UPPER WAVE SHOULD
RESULT IN A FASTER FRONTAL PUSH THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO SE MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE N AND NE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUSTAIN THIS COOL AND DRY AIR
AMIDST E-NE FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO
A MODEST WARMING TREND.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...PRECEDING THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE
ERIE SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE
WINDS TO THE N-NW. AN INCREASING GRADIENT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF MUCH
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SS
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 291444
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1044 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WHICH IS WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND SHEAR IS LOCATED. THE TRI
CITIES AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP QUICKLY OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOIST TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHES 1.30 INCHES. ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER. THERE IS CONCERN WITH THE AMOUNT
OF DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AS SEEN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA AND WHETHER THAT CAN WORK IN OVER THE
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 739 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LOW PROBABILITY OF A TSTORM AT ALL THE AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND ALSO EXPECT LOW
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DETROIT AREA. THUS, DID NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH FIRM SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 18 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR A 5KFT CIG
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD A 5KFT CIG DEVELOP, THE PREFERRED
TIME WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING...APPROX 18-00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR A TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF STRONG
POLAR LOW DIGGING INTO WESTERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...JUST BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ELEVATED
WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. ENTIRE CWA WILL EFFECTIVELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY 12Z-14Z. HOWEVER, SLOWLY RETREATING EAST COAST
ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A COMPONENT OF SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE DETROIT
AREA NORTH TOWARD PORT HURON. WINDS WILL NOT VEER ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE LAKE SHADOW EFFECTS ACROSS THE EAST, SO, WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE, LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR THE METRO AREA . INSTEAD, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE MAXIMUM TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS CONFIRM MODEL PROGS WHICH INDICATE
TDS RISING INTO THE MID 60S BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT CU
COVERAGE, SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE RISING TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WEAKLY
SHEARED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. LACK OF FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING
MECHANISM WILL RENDER UPDRAFT INITIATION CONDITIONAL ON POCKETS OF
PREFERENTIAL HEATING AND BROAD/WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION.
NOTHING BETTER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND LOCALES WEST OF U.S. 23,
GREATER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING WILL INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE AS WELL AS STORM POTENTIAL TO
CAPITALIZE ON DRY MID-LEVELS & WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ENTIRELY DEPENDENT DIABATIC COOLING.

LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY EVENING CONVECTION TO EXPIRE
BY SUNSET, BUT NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL EVENTUALLY REPLENISH WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF A LOW COVERAGE OF WEAKLY SHEARED MULTICELL
TYPE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK OF A DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
ELIMINATES ANY NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL
MUCH BELOW 70 IN SOUPY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DEEP UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC
ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. A
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS ERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS LOWER MI TIED TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.8 IN/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SE MI ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO PERHAPS
MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER MOST OF SE MI. SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION /TIMING OF WHICH IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
STAGE IN THE FCST/. THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES/S/ SUGGEST A REGION OF CONVECTION ON SAT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
WHICH ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SAT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /CAPE GREATER
THAN 1K J/KG/ AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF ANY UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATIVE CONVECTION SUGGESTS A RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION BECOMES HIGHLY SUSPECT AS IT IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THUS DEVELOPS A QUASI STATIONARY
MCS OVER SRN MI. THE PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN UPPER WAVE SHOULD
RESULT IN A FASTER FRONTAL PUSH THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO SE MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE N AND NE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUSTAIN THIS COOL AND DRY AIR
AMIDST E-NE FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO
A MODEST WARMING TREND.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...PRECEDING THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE
ERIE SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE
WINDS TO THE N-NW. AN INCREASING GRADIENT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF MUCH
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SS
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291444
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1044 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WHICH IS WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND SHEAR IS LOCATED. THE TRI
CITIES AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP QUICKLY OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOIST TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHES 1.30 INCHES. ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER. THERE IS CONCERN WITH THE AMOUNT
OF DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AS SEEN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA AND WHETHER THAT CAN WORK IN OVER THE
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 739 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LOW PROBABILITY OF A TSTORM AT ALL THE AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND ALSO EXPECT LOW
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DETROIT AREA. THUS, DID NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH FIRM SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 18 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR A 5KFT CIG
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD A 5KFT CIG DEVELOP, THE PREFERRED
TIME WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING...APPROX 18-00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR A TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF STRONG
POLAR LOW DIGGING INTO WESTERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...JUST BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ELEVATED
WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. ENTIRE CWA WILL EFFECTIVELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY 12Z-14Z. HOWEVER, SLOWLY RETREATING EAST COAST
ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A COMPONENT OF SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE DETROIT
AREA NORTH TOWARD PORT HURON. WINDS WILL NOT VEER ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE LAKE SHADOW EFFECTS ACROSS THE EAST, SO, WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE, LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR THE METRO AREA . INSTEAD, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE MAXIMUM TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS CONFIRM MODEL PROGS WHICH INDICATE
TDS RISING INTO THE MID 60S BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT CU
COVERAGE, SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE RISING TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WEAKLY
SHEARED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. LACK OF FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING
MECHANISM WILL RENDER UPDRAFT INITIATION CONDITIONAL ON POCKETS OF
PREFERENTIAL HEATING AND BROAD/WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION.
NOTHING BETTER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND LOCALES WEST OF U.S. 23,
GREATER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING WILL INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE AS WELL AS STORM POTENTIAL TO
CAPITALIZE ON DRY MID-LEVELS & WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ENTIRELY DEPENDENT DIABATIC COOLING.

LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY EVENING CONVECTION TO EXPIRE
BY SUNSET, BUT NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL EVENTUALLY REPLENISH WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF A LOW COVERAGE OF WEAKLY SHEARED MULTICELL
TYPE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK OF A DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
ELIMINATES ANY NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL
MUCH BELOW 70 IN SOUPY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DEEP UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC
ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. A
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS ERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS LOWER MI TIED TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.8 IN/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SE MI ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO PERHAPS
MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER MOST OF SE MI. SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION /TIMING OF WHICH IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
STAGE IN THE FCST/. THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES/S/ SUGGEST A REGION OF CONVECTION ON SAT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
WHICH ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SAT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /CAPE GREATER
THAN 1K J/KG/ AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF ANY UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATIVE CONVECTION SUGGESTS A RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION BECOMES HIGHLY SUSPECT AS IT IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THUS DEVELOPS A QUASI STATIONARY
MCS OVER SRN MI. THE PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN UPPER WAVE SHOULD
RESULT IN A FASTER FRONTAL PUSH THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO SE MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE N AND NE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUSTAIN THIS COOL AND DRY AIR
AMIDST E-NE FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO
A MODEST WARMING TREND.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...PRECEDING THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE
ERIE SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE
WINDS TO THE N-NW. AN INCREASING GRADIENT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF MUCH
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SS
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 291415
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM OVERNIGHT THINKING.
RATHER AGGRESSIVE SUB H8 MOISTENING CONTINUES TO STEADILY ADVECT
NORTH IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. DOWN LOW MOISTENING
AND NO INHIBITION THROUGH THE LOW/MID LEVELS WORKING TO KICK OFF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN. MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS JUST TO OUR WEST TIED TO EMBEDDED WEAK WAVE
AND REMNANT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. THIS BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST...PERHAPS IMPACTING EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SAID MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER SOUTH. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THREAT IS NOT ZERO. AREA REMAINS WITHIN SPC MARGINAL
CATEGORY FOR SUCH...WHICH IS FULLY SUPPORTED BY MODIFIED HIGH RES
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS AND ML CAPE
UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND NOTHING TO EFFECTIVELY STOP QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST
CONVECTION SUPPORTS MORE OF A WIND THAN HAIL THREAT...WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS TIED TO PRECIP LOADING AND USE OFF DEEPER SHEAR. PWAT
VALUES SURGING NORTH OF 1.30 INCHES AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS SUPPORTS SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STEADY
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT...IN FACT IT WILL NOT
QUITE EXIT BY 12Z. DEEP SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN MI. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO...THIS WILL LIFT INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.

THIS MORNING...SHARP SUB-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEGINNING AT 09Z...A BIT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
THIS SOUPIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 300-500J/KG IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY INCLINED TO POP SOME SHRA IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...
WHICH IS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN LIMITED PROGRESS OF RICH THETA-
E AIR. BUT A SMALL CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA SOUTH OF M-32 IS
REASONABLE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN WE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON? SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY NEAR LAKE MI IN
NW LOWER MI...AND IN MOST OF EASTERN UPPER. BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHOOT UP TOWARD 1K J/KG BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF US-
131 IN NORTHERN LOWER. THIS IS UNCAPPED (A SLIGHT WARM NOSE AT 925
IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE PAST 18Z)...AND ANY LITTLE BOUNDARY WILL SET
THINGS OFF. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD CAPE MUCH
PAST THAT W/O DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. WILL HAVE SCT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 30-40KT RANGE IS HEALTHY BUT NOT OFF THE CHARTS. HODOGRAPH IS
NOT QUITE A STRAIGHT LINE...GENERALLY SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
SW ALOFT...BUT SHEAR IS DEFINITELY MORE SPEED AND LESS DIRECTIONAL.
MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SOMEWHAT BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN NE LOWER...
WHICH WOULD AMP UP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT IN GENERAL... SHEAR/
INSTABILITY PROGS SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SOME
SUPERCELLS AT TIMES. THE LATTER WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND/PERHAPS HAIL THREAT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT...MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND BROADER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN...LOWERING BELOW 1K J/KG OF
MUCAPE. THIS WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EASTERN UPPER TO MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW
BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST CONCERNS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER
SPOTS SEEING A HARD FREEZE (28F OR LOWER) ONE OR BOTH NIGHTS.

WELL...THE MONTH OF MAY IS ON ITS WAY OUT...AND WE ARE EXCITED TO
WELCOME THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON JUNE 1ST. WHAT BETTER
WAY TO CELEBRATE THAN TO TALK ABOUT FROST AND/OR FREEZE ISSUES?
WAIT...WHAT?!?! SADLY...AS MANY LONGTIME RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN KNOW ALL TOO WELL...THIS PLACE IS PRONE TO SOME CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT IN THE YEAR...AND IT WOULD
APPEAR WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF CANADIAN COOLNESS AS WE PUSH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THIS CASE...THE CULPRIT
IS OUR OLD FRIEND JAMES BAY HIGH PRESSURE...PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STICK
AROUND FOR QUITE SOME TIME. FOR US METEOROLOGISTS...THIS IS A REALLY
SIMPLE PATTERN...AS THERE WILL BE BASICALLY NO CHANCE FOR RAIN
COURTESY OF SOME VERY DRY AIR...MINUS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PESKY
SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR A TIME INTO SATURDAY.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER RECENT DAYS...QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
FIRST THING SATURDAY WILL SEND THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A LOOP...WITH A
TIGHT AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.. THAT FEATURE WILL FIND ITSELF INCREASINGLY DRIVEN INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AS OUR ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FLEXES
ITS MUSCLE...AND SOME VERY DRY AIR (PWAT VALUES DOWN BELOW 0.30
INCHES) ROLLS IN QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SAID FGEN FORCING
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH INITIAL REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRY TO KEEP A BAND OF RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST...THERE IS STILL A
TOUCH OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE INSISTENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAKISH
SHORTWAVE FEATURE HELPING EXTEND THE RAIN CHANCE A BIT LONGER IN THE
DAY...AND GIVEN THE SETUP (AND LOTS OF EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
EVENTS OVER THE YEARS)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF RAIN DID INDEED TAKE
A FEW MORE HOURS TO EXIT THE AREA.

THAT WILL ALL BE HISTORY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RAPIDLY CLEARS SKIES OUT.
THAT SETUP...IN COMBINATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRONOUNCED THERMAL
TROUGHING (H8 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD 0-2C) SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
COOL NIGHT. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...AN INFLUX OF VERY DRY DEW
POINTS SHOULD OFFSET THE WET SOILS...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF
WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG IN SPOTS. FROST
CONCERNS ALSO ARISE SIMPLY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVING...THOUGH AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WE DO LOOK TO HAVE A BIT
OF A LINGERING GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72. NONETHELESS...HAVE NO DOUBT THE USUAL SUSPECT SITES
WILL DECOUPLE AND HAVE A CHANCE TO CRASH THROUGH THE LOWER 30S...AND
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. A COLD START SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY BUT
STILL COOLISH SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR FROST/
FREEZE ISSUES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PARKS
ITSELF OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER EACH
RUN...WITH LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SIMPLY PUT...IF YOU HAVEN`T PLANTED YOUR
GARDEN YET...HANG TIGHT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS!


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK (AND
WELCOME THE MONTH OF JUNE)...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FROST IN MANY INLAND AREAS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL GRADUAL
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH BY WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH
MAYBE (THAT`S A BIG MAYBE) A LITTLE BETTER SHOT FOR ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HISTORY TIME AND AGAIN IN THESE SETUPS STRONGLY
ARGUES OUR LOCAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS WE STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WEAK SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING...WITH MY GUT
FEELING MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY NEAR APN. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL ENTER NORTHERN MI
OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP
AFTER 17Z...WITH APN THE MOST LIKELY TAF TO BE IMPACTED. WOULD NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF A LOW TSRA CHANCE IS TRICKY TO PORTRAY IN A TAF. HAVE MENTIONED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT APN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SHRA MOVE IN FROM THE W. CIGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR AS PRECIP BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EXITS LATER ON SATURDAY. SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS AIRMASS GETS MORE HUMID UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT PICK
UP FROM THE N TO NW ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MI. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 291415
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM OVERNIGHT THINKING.
RATHER AGGRESSIVE SUB H8 MOISTENING CONTINUES TO STEADILY ADVECT
NORTH IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. DOWN LOW MOISTENING
AND NO INHIBITION THROUGH THE LOW/MID LEVELS WORKING TO KICK OFF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN. MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS JUST TO OUR WEST TIED TO EMBEDDED WEAK WAVE
AND REMNANT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. THIS BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST...PERHAPS IMPACTING EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SAID MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER SOUTH. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THREAT IS NOT ZERO. AREA REMAINS WITHIN SPC MARGINAL
CATEGORY FOR SUCH...WHICH IS FULLY SUPPORTED BY MODIFIED HIGH RES
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS AND ML CAPE
UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND NOTHING TO EFFECTIVELY STOP QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST
CONVECTION SUPPORTS MORE OF A WIND THAN HAIL THREAT...WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS TIED TO PRECIP LOADING AND USE OFF DEEPER SHEAR. PWAT
VALUES SURGING NORTH OF 1.30 INCHES AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS SUPPORTS SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STEADY
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT...IN FACT IT WILL NOT
QUITE EXIT BY 12Z. DEEP SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN MI. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO...THIS WILL LIFT INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.

THIS MORNING...SHARP SUB-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEGINNING AT 09Z...A BIT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
THIS SOUPIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 300-500J/KG IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY INCLINED TO POP SOME SHRA IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...
WHICH IS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN LIMITED PROGRESS OF RICH THETA-
E AIR. BUT A SMALL CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA SOUTH OF M-32 IS
REASONABLE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN WE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON? SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY NEAR LAKE MI IN
NW LOWER MI...AND IN MOST OF EASTERN UPPER. BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHOOT UP TOWARD 1K J/KG BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF US-
131 IN NORTHERN LOWER. THIS IS UNCAPPED (A SLIGHT WARM NOSE AT 925
IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE PAST 18Z)...AND ANY LITTLE BOUNDARY WILL SET
THINGS OFF. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD CAPE MUCH
PAST THAT W/O DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. WILL HAVE SCT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 30-40KT RANGE IS HEALTHY BUT NOT OFF THE CHARTS. HODOGRAPH IS
NOT QUITE A STRAIGHT LINE...GENERALLY SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
SW ALOFT...BUT SHEAR IS DEFINITELY MORE SPEED AND LESS DIRECTIONAL.
MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SOMEWHAT BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN NE LOWER...
WHICH WOULD AMP UP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT IN GENERAL... SHEAR/
INSTABILITY PROGS SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SOME
SUPERCELLS AT TIMES. THE LATTER WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND/PERHAPS HAIL THREAT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT...MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND BROADER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN...LOWERING BELOW 1K J/KG OF
MUCAPE. THIS WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EASTERN UPPER TO MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW
BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST CONCERNS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER
SPOTS SEEING A HARD FREEZE (28F OR LOWER) ONE OR BOTH NIGHTS.

WELL...THE MONTH OF MAY IS ON ITS WAY OUT...AND WE ARE EXCITED TO
WELCOME THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON JUNE 1ST. WHAT BETTER
WAY TO CELEBRATE THAN TO TALK ABOUT FROST AND/OR FREEZE ISSUES?
WAIT...WHAT?!?! SADLY...AS MANY LONGTIME RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN KNOW ALL TOO WELL...THIS PLACE IS PRONE TO SOME CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT IN THE YEAR...AND IT WOULD
APPEAR WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF CANADIAN COOLNESS AS WE PUSH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THIS CASE...THE CULPRIT
IS OUR OLD FRIEND JAMES BAY HIGH PRESSURE...PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STICK
AROUND FOR QUITE SOME TIME. FOR US METEOROLOGISTS...THIS IS A REALLY
SIMPLE PATTERN...AS THERE WILL BE BASICALLY NO CHANCE FOR RAIN
COURTESY OF SOME VERY DRY AIR...MINUS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PESKY
SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR A TIME INTO SATURDAY.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER RECENT DAYS...QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
FIRST THING SATURDAY WILL SEND THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A LOOP...WITH A
TIGHT AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.. THAT FEATURE WILL FIND ITSELF INCREASINGLY DRIVEN INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AS OUR ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FLEXES
ITS MUSCLE...AND SOME VERY DRY AIR (PWAT VALUES DOWN BELOW 0.30
INCHES) ROLLS IN QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SAID FGEN FORCING
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH INITIAL REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRY TO KEEP A BAND OF RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST...THERE IS STILL A
TOUCH OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE INSISTENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAKISH
SHORTWAVE FEATURE HELPING EXTEND THE RAIN CHANCE A BIT LONGER IN THE
DAY...AND GIVEN THE SETUP (AND LOTS OF EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
EVENTS OVER THE YEARS)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF RAIN DID INDEED TAKE
A FEW MORE HOURS TO EXIT THE AREA.

THAT WILL ALL BE HISTORY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RAPIDLY CLEARS SKIES OUT.
THAT SETUP...IN COMBINATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRONOUNCED THERMAL
TROUGHING (H8 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD 0-2C) SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
COOL NIGHT. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...AN INFLUX OF VERY DRY DEW
POINTS SHOULD OFFSET THE WET SOILS...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF
WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG IN SPOTS. FROST
CONCERNS ALSO ARISE SIMPLY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVING...THOUGH AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WE DO LOOK TO HAVE A BIT
OF A LINGERING GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72. NONETHELESS...HAVE NO DOUBT THE USUAL SUSPECT SITES
WILL DECOUPLE AND HAVE A CHANCE TO CRASH THROUGH THE LOWER 30S...AND
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. A COLD START SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY BUT
STILL COOLISH SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR FROST/
FREEZE ISSUES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PARKS
ITSELF OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER EACH
RUN...WITH LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SIMPLY PUT...IF YOU HAVEN`T PLANTED YOUR
GARDEN YET...HANG TIGHT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS!


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK (AND
WELCOME THE MONTH OF JUNE)...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FROST IN MANY INLAND AREAS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL GRADUAL
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH BY WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH
MAYBE (THAT`S A BIG MAYBE) A LITTLE BETTER SHOT FOR ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HISTORY TIME AND AGAIN IN THESE SETUPS STRONGLY
ARGUES OUR LOCAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS WE STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WEAK SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING...WITH MY GUT
FEELING MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY NEAR APN. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL ENTER NORTHERN MI
OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP
AFTER 17Z...WITH APN THE MOST LIKELY TAF TO BE IMPACTED. WOULD NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF A LOW TSRA CHANCE IS TRICKY TO PORTRAY IN A TAF. HAVE MENTIONED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT APN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SHRA MOVE IN FROM THE W. CIGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR AS PRECIP BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EXITS LATER ON SATURDAY. SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS AIRMASS GETS MORE HUMID UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT PICK
UP FROM THE N TO NW ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MI. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KMQT 291146
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PACE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL PLAYS A BIG PART IN UNCERTAINTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOW TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
BATCH OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS NOW OVER SW WI AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS...AND ALMOST ALL OF THAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LAKE BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY HELP TO LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT RISK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND OTHER
VERY SHORT TERM DETAILS.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE
A FEW REASONS FOR THIS ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE. FIRST...THE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY SNOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER MI...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPORARILY SLOW IT DOWN.
SECOND...THE SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST FORCING.
THIRD...MEAN FLOW/STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN AREA OF GREATEST PRECIP FROM IRONWOOD
TO MARQUETTE...WITH 1-2 INCHES (OR MORE) SHOWN IN THIS AREA.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RECENT
RAINFALL...WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA BY 12Z MON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF A 1033MB HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NRN STREAM RIDGING OVER FAR WRN CANADA/ALASKA VCNTY THAT HAS BEEN A
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MANY WEEKS...AND REALLY MUCH OF THIS YEAR...
WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE UPCOMING CHANGES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER PATTERN (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO
THAT...ONE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE S INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IS STILL
VERY STRONG IN NW CANADA/ALASKA (500MB HEIGHTS AT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVG). WITH THE COLD AIR MASS...THERE
WILL BE TWO NIGHTS WITH FROST LIKELY (SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT). AS FOR
PCPN...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA...SEVERAL DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL. DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE NW CONUS TROF SENDS ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM.

BEGINNING SAT...AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLICING THRU LWR MI
AND HEADING SE WHILE THE CENTER OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WEAK SFC WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK COULD RESULT IN SOME -RA LINGERING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL
(AROUND KMNM) IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CAA/BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WITH FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO HOVER AT OR BLO 0C OVER WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE N TO THE MID/UPPER 50S S. AT LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THINNING OUT FROM NW TO SE THRU THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE NIGHT...NOT QUITE A PERFECT
LOCATION FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE FOR WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
AT THAT POSITION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
INTO NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...WON`T CONSIDER THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
MIN TEMPS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL AID RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WITH MINS AS LOW AS THE
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS AND MID/UPPER
30S LAKESIDE. SHOULD BE COLDEST INTERIOR W HALF. FROST/FREEZE IS
LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.

WHILE THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SFC HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT E ON SUN...
ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LAKE
BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S N TO THE LWR 60S SCNTRL/INTERIOR W. MANY LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S.

ON SUN NIGHT...GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO UNDER A QUARTER
INCH OVER THE E HALF WITH THE NAM DOWN TO ALMOST ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE CNTRL...BOTH MODELS LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING BACK INTO UPPER MI...SUN NIGHT COULD END UP AS COLD AS
SAT NIGHT IN MANY AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS.
OVERALL...MIN TEMP RANGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT...BUT
COLDEST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. WILL SEE ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE IN THE
INTERIOR.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MESO HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY MON.
SO...LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...THOUGH THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS ON SUN. IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKES.

TUE THRU THU...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ENSURE ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROF BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS AND LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS
UTILIZED. THIS RESULTS IN SCHC TO CHC POPS WED INCREASING SLIGHTLY
FOR THU. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH INCREASING
DWPTS GIVING A SUMMER FEEL TO THE WARMTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON IS LOWER THAN WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL MOVE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND
KSAW...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE PRETTY QUICKLY AS VERY DRY AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 291146
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PACE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL PLAYS A BIG PART IN UNCERTAINTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOW TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
BATCH OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS NOW OVER SW WI AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS...AND ALMOST ALL OF THAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LAKE BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY HELP TO LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT RISK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND OTHER
VERY SHORT TERM DETAILS.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE
A FEW REASONS FOR THIS ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE. FIRST...THE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY SNOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER MI...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPORARILY SLOW IT DOWN.
SECOND...THE SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST FORCING.
THIRD...MEAN FLOW/STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN AREA OF GREATEST PRECIP FROM IRONWOOD
TO MARQUETTE...WITH 1-2 INCHES (OR MORE) SHOWN IN THIS AREA.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RECENT
RAINFALL...WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA BY 12Z MON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF A 1033MB HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NRN STREAM RIDGING OVER FAR WRN CANADA/ALASKA VCNTY THAT HAS BEEN A
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MANY WEEKS...AND REALLY MUCH OF THIS YEAR...
WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE UPCOMING CHANGES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER PATTERN (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO
THAT...ONE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE S INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IS STILL
VERY STRONG IN NW CANADA/ALASKA (500MB HEIGHTS AT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVG). WITH THE COLD AIR MASS...THERE
WILL BE TWO NIGHTS WITH FROST LIKELY (SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT). AS FOR
PCPN...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA...SEVERAL DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL. DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE NW CONUS TROF SENDS ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM.

BEGINNING SAT...AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLICING THRU LWR MI
AND HEADING SE WHILE THE CENTER OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WEAK SFC WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK COULD RESULT IN SOME -RA LINGERING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL
(AROUND KMNM) IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CAA/BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WITH FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO HOVER AT OR BLO 0C OVER WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE N TO THE MID/UPPER 50S S. AT LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THINNING OUT FROM NW TO SE THRU THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE NIGHT...NOT QUITE A PERFECT
LOCATION FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE FOR WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
AT THAT POSITION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
INTO NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...WON`T CONSIDER THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
MIN TEMPS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL AID RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WITH MINS AS LOW AS THE
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS AND MID/UPPER
30S LAKESIDE. SHOULD BE COLDEST INTERIOR W HALF. FROST/FREEZE IS
LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.

WHILE THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SFC HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT E ON SUN...
ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LAKE
BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S N TO THE LWR 60S SCNTRL/INTERIOR W. MANY LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S.

ON SUN NIGHT...GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO UNDER A QUARTER
INCH OVER THE E HALF WITH THE NAM DOWN TO ALMOST ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE CNTRL...BOTH MODELS LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING BACK INTO UPPER MI...SUN NIGHT COULD END UP AS COLD AS
SAT NIGHT IN MANY AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS.
OVERALL...MIN TEMP RANGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT...BUT
COLDEST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. WILL SEE ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE IN THE
INTERIOR.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MESO HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY MON.
SO...LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...THOUGH THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS ON SUN. IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKES.

TUE THRU THU...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ENSURE ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROF BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS AND LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS
UTILIZED. THIS RESULTS IN SCHC TO CHC POPS WED INCREASING SLIGHTLY
FOR THU. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH INCREASING
DWPTS GIVING A SUMMER FEEL TO THE WARMTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON IS LOWER THAN WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL MOVE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND
KSAW...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE PRETTY QUICKLY AS VERY DRY AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 291139
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
739 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND HUMID
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW WARM UP
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECT THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE ISSUE TODAY IS THE THREAT FOR DAY TIME CONVECTION WITH THE
SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT
ISSUE IS THE RAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE
DAY. FINALLY THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

IT IS RATHER CLEAR FROM LOOPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS (VARIOUS
MODELS) THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SURFACE TO 850 MEAN DEW
POINTS A WARM FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS TO LOOK A TOUCH MOIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA (EXCEPT NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE) FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK... UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH (JET IS FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST YET). THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THAT GO NORTH OF OUR
CWA. MY SPIN ON THIS IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID EVENING THEN WE
WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH. SEEMS THE RAIN WILL
LARGELY BE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SATURDAY EVEN THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
OVER 40 KNOTS. MOSTLY THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A COLD RAIN THAN
ANYTHING ELSE. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE... AS I LIKE TO CALL IT... JET
LIFT EVENTS (WE ARE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET).
TEMPEATURES COULD FALL DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN
SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SO SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AND IT WILL GET CHILLY. WE MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES (I DID NOT ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS AS I WAS NOT
SURE OF THIS JUST YET). THE GLITCH THOUGH TO WATCH WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WE HAVE A SHEARING OUT SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING THROUGH. IF THE MODELS ARE JUST A TOUCH TO FAST
AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH (TYPICAL ERROR FOR THIS SORT OF THING) WE MAY
SEE THE SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO MATTER WHAT SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER. SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NNE FCST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE.

AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WHILE I DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE AROUND
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PUT MORE THAN VCTS IN THE TAFS. THE SOLID RAIN AND IFR CIGS WILL
NOT MOVE INTO OUR TAF SITES UNTIL WELL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL NEED SOME SORT OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR
SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND BUILD LARGE WAVES WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291139
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
739 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND HUMID
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW WARM UP
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECT THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE ISSUE TODAY IS THE THREAT FOR DAY TIME CONVECTION WITH THE
SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT
ISSUE IS THE RAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE
DAY. FINALLY THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

IT IS RATHER CLEAR FROM LOOPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS (VARIOUS
MODELS) THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SURFACE TO 850 MEAN DEW
POINTS A WARM FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS TO LOOK A TOUCH MOIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA (EXCEPT NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE) FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK... UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH (JET IS FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST YET). THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THAT GO NORTH OF OUR
CWA. MY SPIN ON THIS IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID EVENING THEN WE
WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH. SEEMS THE RAIN WILL
LARGELY BE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SATURDAY EVEN THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
OVER 40 KNOTS. MOSTLY THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A COLD RAIN THAN
ANYTHING ELSE. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE... AS I LIKE TO CALL IT... JET
LIFT EVENTS (WE ARE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET).
TEMPEATURES COULD FALL DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN
SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SO SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AND IT WILL GET CHILLY. WE MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES (I DID NOT ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS AS I WAS NOT
SURE OF THIS JUST YET). THE GLITCH THOUGH TO WATCH WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WE HAVE A SHEARING OUT SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING THROUGH. IF THE MODELS ARE JUST A TOUCH TO FAST
AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH (TYPICAL ERROR FOR THIS SORT OF THING) WE MAY
SEE THE SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO MATTER WHAT SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER. SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NNE FCST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE.

AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WHILE I DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE AROUND
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PUT MORE THAN VCTS IN THE TAFS. THE SOLID RAIN AND IFR CIGS WILL
NOT MOVE INTO OUR TAF SITES UNTIL WELL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL NEED SOME SORT OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR
SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND BUILD LARGE WAVES WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...WDM



000
FXUS63 KDTX 291139
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
739 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW PROBABILITY OF A TSTORM AT ALL THE AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND ALSO EXPECT LOW
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DETROIT AREA. THUS, DID NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH FIRM SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 18 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR A 5KFT CIG
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD A 5KFT CIG DEVELOP, THE PREFERRED
TIME WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING...APPROX 18-00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR A TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF STRONG
POLAR LOW DIGGING INTO WESTERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...JUST BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ELEVATED
WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. ENTIRE CWA WILL EFFECTIVELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY 12Z-14Z. HOWEVER, SLOWLY RETREATING EAST COAST
ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A COMPONENT OF SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE DETROIT
AREA NORTH TOWARD PORT HURON. WINDS WILL NOT VEER ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE LAKE SHADOW EFFECTS ACROSS THE EAST, SO, WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE, LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR THE METRO AREA . INSTEAD, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE MAXIMUM TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS CONFIRM MODEL PROGS WHICH INDICATE
TDS RISING INTO THE MID 60S BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT CU
COVERAGE, SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE RISING TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WEAKLY
SHEARED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. LACK OF FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING
MECHANISM WILL RENDER UPDRAFT INITIATION CONDITIONAL ON POCKETS OF
PREFERENTIAL HEATING AND BROAD/WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION.
NOTHING BETTER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND LOCALES WEST OF U.S. 23,
GREATER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING WILL INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE AS WELL AS STORM POTENTIAL TO
CAPITALIZE ON DRY MID-LEVELS & WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ENTIRELY DEPENDENT DIABATIC COOLING.

LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY EVENING CONVECTION TO EXPIRE
BY SUNSET, BUT NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL EVENTUALLY REPLENISH WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF A LOW COVERAGE OF WEAKLY SHEARED MULTICELL
TYPE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK OF A DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
ELIMINATES ANY NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL
MUCH BELOW 70 IN SOUPY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DEEP UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC
ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. A
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS ERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS LOWER MI TIED TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.8 IN/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SE MI ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO PERHAPS
MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER MOST OF SE MI. SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION /TIMING OF WHICH IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
STAGE IN THE FCST/. THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES/S/ SUGGEST A REGION OF CONVECTION ON SAT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
WHICH ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SAT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /CAPE GREATER
THAN 1K J/KG/ AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF ANY UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATIVE CONVECTION SUGGESTS A RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION BECOMES HIGHLY SUSPECT AS IT IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THUS DEVELOPS A QUASI STATIONARY
MCS OVER SRN MI. THE PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN UPPER WAVE SHOULD
RESULT IN A FASTER FRONTAL PUSH THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO SE MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE N AND NE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUSTAIN THIS COOL AND DRY AIR
AMIDST E-NE FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO
A MODEST WARMING TREND.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...PRECEDING THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE
ERIE SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE
WINDS TO THE N-NW. AN INCREASING GRADIENT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF MUCH
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 291139
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
739 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW PROBABILITY OF A TSTORM AT ALL THE AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND ALSO EXPECT LOW
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DETROIT AREA. THUS, DID NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH FIRM SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 18 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR A 5KFT CIG
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD A 5KFT CIG DEVELOP, THE PREFERRED
TIME WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING...APPROX 18-00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR A TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF STRONG
POLAR LOW DIGGING INTO WESTERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...JUST BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ELEVATED
WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. ENTIRE CWA WILL EFFECTIVELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY 12Z-14Z. HOWEVER, SLOWLY RETREATING EAST COAST
ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A COMPONENT OF SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE DETROIT
AREA NORTH TOWARD PORT HURON. WINDS WILL NOT VEER ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE LAKE SHADOW EFFECTS ACROSS THE EAST, SO, WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE, LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR THE METRO AREA . INSTEAD, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE MAXIMUM TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS CONFIRM MODEL PROGS WHICH INDICATE
TDS RISING INTO THE MID 60S BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT CU
COVERAGE, SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE RISING TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WEAKLY
SHEARED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. LACK OF FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING
MECHANISM WILL RENDER UPDRAFT INITIATION CONDITIONAL ON POCKETS OF
PREFERENTIAL HEATING AND BROAD/WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION.
NOTHING BETTER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND LOCALES WEST OF U.S. 23,
GREATER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING WILL INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE AS WELL AS STORM POTENTIAL TO
CAPITALIZE ON DRY MID-LEVELS & WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ENTIRELY DEPENDENT DIABATIC COOLING.

LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY EVENING CONVECTION TO EXPIRE
BY SUNSET, BUT NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL EVENTUALLY REPLENISH WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF A LOW COVERAGE OF WEAKLY SHEARED MULTICELL
TYPE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK OF A DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
ELIMINATES ANY NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL
MUCH BELOW 70 IN SOUPY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DEEP UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC
ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. A
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS ERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS LOWER MI TIED TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.8 IN/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SE MI ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO PERHAPS
MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER MOST OF SE MI. SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION /TIMING OF WHICH IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
STAGE IN THE FCST/. THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES/S/ SUGGEST A REGION OF CONVECTION ON SAT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
WHICH ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SAT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /CAPE GREATER
THAN 1K J/KG/ AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF ANY UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATIVE CONVECTION SUGGESTS A RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION BECOMES HIGHLY SUSPECT AS IT IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THUS DEVELOPS A QUASI STATIONARY
MCS OVER SRN MI. THE PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN UPPER WAVE SHOULD
RESULT IN A FASTER FRONTAL PUSH THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO SE MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE N AND NE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUSTAIN THIS COOL AND DRY AIR
AMIDST E-NE FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO
A MODEST WARMING TREND.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...PRECEDING THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE
ERIE SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE
WINDS TO THE N-NW. AN INCREASING GRADIENT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF MUCH
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 291059
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
659 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT...IN FACT IT WILL NOT
QUITE EXIT BY 12Z. DEEP SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN MI. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO...THIS WILL LIFT INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.

THIS MORNING...SHARP SUB-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEGINNING AT 09Z...A BIT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
THIS SOUPIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 300-500J/KG IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY INCLINED TO POP SOME SHRA IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...
WHICH IS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN LIMITED PROGRESS OF RICH THETA-
E AIR. BUT A SMALL CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA SOUTH OF M-32 IS
REASONABLE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN WE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON? SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY NEAR LAKE MI IN
NW LOWER MI...AND IN MOST OF EASTERN UPPER. BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHOOT UP TOWARD 1K J/KG BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF US-
131 IN NORTHERN LOWER. THIS IS UNCAPPED (A SLIGHT WARM NOSE AT 925
IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE PAST 18Z)...AND ANY LITTLE BOUNDARY WILL SET
THINGS OFF. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD CAPE MUCH
PAST THAT W/O DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. WILL HAVE SCT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 30-40KT RANGE IS HEALTHY BUT NOT OFF THE CHARTS. HODOGRAPH IS
NOT QUITE A STRAIGHT LINE...GENERALLY SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
SW ALOFT...BUT SHEAR IS DEFINITELY MORE SPEED AND LESS DIRECTIONAL.
MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SOMEWHAT BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN NE LOWER...
WHICH WOULD AMP UP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT IN GENERAL... SHEAR/
INSTABILITY PROGS SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SOME
SUPERCELLS AT TIMES. THE LATTER WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND/PERHAPS HAIL THREAT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT...MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND BROADER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN...LOWERING BELOW 1K J/KG OF
MUCAPE. THIS WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EASTERN UPPER TO MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW
BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST CONCERNS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER
SPOTS SEEING A HARD FREEZE (28F OR LOWER) ONE OR BOTH NIGHTS.

WELL...THE MONTH OF MAY IS ON ITS WAY OUT...AND WE ARE EXCITED TO
WELCOME THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON JUNE 1ST. WHAT BETTER
WAY TO CELEBRATE THAN TO TALK ABOUT FROST AND/OR FREEZE ISSUES?
WAIT...WHAT?!?! SADLY...AS MANY LONGTIME RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN KNOW ALL TOO WELL...THIS PLACE IS PRONE TO SOME CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT IN THE YEAR...AND IT WOULD
APPEAR WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF CANADIAN COOLNESS AS WE PUSH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THIS CASE...THE CULPRIT
IS OUR OLD FRIEND JAMES BAY HIGH PRESSURE...PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STICK
AROUND FOR QUITE SOME TIME. FOR US METEOROLOGISTS...THIS IS A REALLY
SIMPLE PATTERN...AS THERE WILL BE BASICALLY NO CHANCE FOR RAIN
COURTESY OF SOME VERY DRY AIR...MINUS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PESKY
SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR A TIME INTO SATURDAY.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER RECENT DAYS...QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
FIRST THING SATURDAY WILL SEND THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A LOOP...WITH A
TIGHT AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.. THAT FEATURE WILL FIND ITSELF INCREASINGLY DRIVEN INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AS OUR ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FLEXES
ITS MUSCLE...AND SOME VERY DRY AIR (PWAT VALUES DOWN BELOW 0.30
INCHES) ROLLS IN QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SAID FGEN FORCING
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH INITIAL REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRY TO KEEP A BAND OF RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST...THERE IS STILL A
TOUCH OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE INSISTENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAKISH
SHORTWAVE FEATURE HELPING EXTEND THE RAIN CHANCE A BIT LONGER IN THE
DAY...AND GIVEN THE SETUP (AND LOTS OF EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
EVENTS OVER THE YEARS)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF RAIN DID INDEED TAKE
A FEW MORE HOURS TO EXIT THE AREA.

THAT WILL ALL BE HISTORY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RAPIDLY CLEARS SKIES OUT.
THAT SETUP...IN COMBINATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRONOUNCED THERMAL
TROUGHING (H8 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD 0-2C) SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
COOL NIGHT. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...AN INFLUX OF VERY DRY DEW
POINTS SHOULD OFFSET THE WET SOILS...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF
WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG IN SPOTS. FROST
CONCERNS ALSO ARISE SIMPLY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVING...THOUGH AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WE DO LOOK TO HAVE A BIT
OF A LINGERING GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72. NONETHELESS...HAVE NO DOUBT THE USUAL SUSPECT SITES
WILL DECOUPLE AND HAVE A CHANCE TO CRASH THROUGH THE LOWER 30S...AND
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. A COLD START SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY BUT
STILL COOLISH SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR FROST/
FREEZE ISSUES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PARKS
ITSELF OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER EACH
RUN...WITH LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SIMPLY PUT...IF YOU HAVEN`T PLANTED YOUR
GARDEN YET...HANG TIGHT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS!


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK (AND
WELCOME THE MONTH OF JUNE)...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FROST IN MANY INLAND AREAS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL GRADUAL
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH BY WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH
MAYBE (THAT`S A BIG MAYBE) A LITTLE BETTER SHOT FOR ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HISTORY TIME AND AGAIN IN THESE SETUPS STRONGLY
ARGUES OUR LOCAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS WE STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WEAK SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING...WITH MY GUT
FEELING MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY NEAR APN. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL ENTER NORTHERN MI
OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP
AFTER 17Z...WITH APN THE MOST LIKELY TAF TO BE IMPACTED. WOULD NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF A LOW TSRA CHANCE IS TRICKY TO PORTRAY IN A TAF. HAVE MENTIONED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT APN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SHRA MOVE IN FROM THE W. CIGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR AS PRECIP BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EXITS LATER ON SATURDAY. SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS AIRMASS GETS MORE HUMID UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT PICK
UP FROM THE N TO NW ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MI. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 291059
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
659 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT...IN FACT IT WILL NOT
QUITE EXIT BY 12Z. DEEP SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN MI. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO...THIS WILL LIFT INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.

THIS MORNING...SHARP SUB-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEGINNING AT 09Z...A BIT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
THIS SOUPIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 300-500J/KG IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY INCLINED TO POP SOME SHRA IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...
WHICH IS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN LIMITED PROGRESS OF RICH THETA-
E AIR. BUT A SMALL CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA SOUTH OF M-32 IS
REASONABLE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN WE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON? SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY NEAR LAKE MI IN
NW LOWER MI...AND IN MOST OF EASTERN UPPER. BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHOOT UP TOWARD 1K J/KG BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF US-
131 IN NORTHERN LOWER. THIS IS UNCAPPED (A SLIGHT WARM NOSE AT 925
IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE PAST 18Z)...AND ANY LITTLE BOUNDARY WILL SET
THINGS OFF. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD CAPE MUCH
PAST THAT W/O DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. WILL HAVE SCT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 30-40KT RANGE IS HEALTHY BUT NOT OFF THE CHARTS. HODOGRAPH IS
NOT QUITE A STRAIGHT LINE...GENERALLY SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
SW ALOFT...BUT SHEAR IS DEFINITELY MORE SPEED AND LESS DIRECTIONAL.
MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SOMEWHAT BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN NE LOWER...
WHICH WOULD AMP UP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT IN GENERAL... SHEAR/
INSTABILITY PROGS SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SOME
SUPERCELLS AT TIMES. THE LATTER WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND/PERHAPS HAIL THREAT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT...MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND BROADER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN...LOWERING BELOW 1K J/KG OF
MUCAPE. THIS WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EASTERN UPPER TO MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW
BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST CONCERNS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER
SPOTS SEEING A HARD FREEZE (28F OR LOWER) ONE OR BOTH NIGHTS.

WELL...THE MONTH OF MAY IS ON ITS WAY OUT...AND WE ARE EXCITED TO
WELCOME THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON JUNE 1ST. WHAT BETTER
WAY TO CELEBRATE THAN TO TALK ABOUT FROST AND/OR FREEZE ISSUES?
WAIT...WHAT?!?! SADLY...AS MANY LONGTIME RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN KNOW ALL TOO WELL...THIS PLACE IS PRONE TO SOME CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT IN THE YEAR...AND IT WOULD
APPEAR WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF CANADIAN COOLNESS AS WE PUSH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THIS CASE...THE CULPRIT
IS OUR OLD FRIEND JAMES BAY HIGH PRESSURE...PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STICK
AROUND FOR QUITE SOME TIME. FOR US METEOROLOGISTS...THIS IS A REALLY
SIMPLE PATTERN...AS THERE WILL BE BASICALLY NO CHANCE FOR RAIN
COURTESY OF SOME VERY DRY AIR...MINUS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PESKY
SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR A TIME INTO SATURDAY.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER RECENT DAYS...QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
FIRST THING SATURDAY WILL SEND THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A LOOP...WITH A
TIGHT AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.. THAT FEATURE WILL FIND ITSELF INCREASINGLY DRIVEN INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AS OUR ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FLEXES
ITS MUSCLE...AND SOME VERY DRY AIR (PWAT VALUES DOWN BELOW 0.30
INCHES) ROLLS IN QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SAID FGEN FORCING
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH INITIAL REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRY TO KEEP A BAND OF RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST...THERE IS STILL A
TOUCH OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE INSISTENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAKISH
SHORTWAVE FEATURE HELPING EXTEND THE RAIN CHANCE A BIT LONGER IN THE
DAY...AND GIVEN THE SETUP (AND LOTS OF EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
EVENTS OVER THE YEARS)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF RAIN DID INDEED TAKE
A FEW MORE HOURS TO EXIT THE AREA.

THAT WILL ALL BE HISTORY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RAPIDLY CLEARS SKIES OUT.
THAT SETUP...IN COMBINATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRONOUNCED THERMAL
TROUGHING (H8 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD 0-2C) SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
COOL NIGHT. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...AN INFLUX OF VERY DRY DEW
POINTS SHOULD OFFSET THE WET SOILS...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF
WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG IN SPOTS. FROST
CONCERNS ALSO ARISE SIMPLY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVING...THOUGH AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WE DO LOOK TO HAVE A BIT
OF A LINGERING GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72. NONETHELESS...HAVE NO DOUBT THE USUAL SUSPECT SITES
WILL DECOUPLE AND HAVE A CHANCE TO CRASH THROUGH THE LOWER 30S...AND
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. A COLD START SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY BUT
STILL COOLISH SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR FROST/
FREEZE ISSUES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PARKS
ITSELF OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER EACH
RUN...WITH LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SIMPLY PUT...IF YOU HAVEN`T PLANTED YOUR
GARDEN YET...HANG TIGHT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS!


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK (AND
WELCOME THE MONTH OF JUNE)...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FROST IN MANY INLAND AREAS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL GRADUAL
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH BY WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH
MAYBE (THAT`S A BIG MAYBE) A LITTLE BETTER SHOT FOR ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HISTORY TIME AND AGAIN IN THESE SETUPS STRONGLY
ARGUES OUR LOCAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS WE STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WEAK SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING...WITH MY GUT
FEELING MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY NEAR APN. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL ENTER NORTHERN MI
OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP
AFTER 17Z...WITH APN THE MOST LIKELY TAF TO BE IMPACTED. WOULD NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF A LOW TSRA CHANCE IS TRICKY TO PORTRAY IN A TAF. HAVE MENTIONED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT APN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SHRA MOVE IN FROM THE W. CIGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR AS PRECIP BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EXITS LATER ON SATURDAY. SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS AIRMASS GETS MORE HUMID UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT PICK
UP FROM THE N TO NW ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MI. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 291059
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
659 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT...IN FACT IT WILL NOT
QUITE EXIT BY 12Z. DEEP SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN MI. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO...THIS WILL LIFT INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.

THIS MORNING...SHARP SUB-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEGINNING AT 09Z...A BIT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
THIS SOUPIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 300-500J/KG IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY INCLINED TO POP SOME SHRA IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...
WHICH IS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN LIMITED PROGRESS OF RICH THETA-
E AIR. BUT A SMALL CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA SOUTH OF M-32 IS
REASONABLE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN WE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON? SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY NEAR LAKE MI IN
NW LOWER MI...AND IN MOST OF EASTERN UPPER. BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHOOT UP TOWARD 1K J/KG BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF US-
131 IN NORTHERN LOWER. THIS IS UNCAPPED (A SLIGHT WARM NOSE AT 925
IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE PAST 18Z)...AND ANY LITTLE BOUNDARY WILL SET
THINGS OFF. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD CAPE MUCH
PAST THAT W/O DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. WILL HAVE SCT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 30-40KT RANGE IS HEALTHY BUT NOT OFF THE CHARTS. HODOGRAPH IS
NOT QUITE A STRAIGHT LINE...GENERALLY SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
SW ALOFT...BUT SHEAR IS DEFINITELY MORE SPEED AND LESS DIRECTIONAL.
MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SOMEWHAT BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN NE LOWER...
WHICH WOULD AMP UP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT IN GENERAL... SHEAR/
INSTABILITY PROGS SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SOME
SUPERCELLS AT TIMES. THE LATTER WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND/PERHAPS HAIL THREAT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT...MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND BROADER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN...LOWERING BELOW 1K J/KG OF
MUCAPE. THIS WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EASTERN UPPER TO MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW
BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST CONCERNS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER
SPOTS SEEING A HARD FREEZE (28F OR LOWER) ONE OR BOTH NIGHTS.

WELL...THE MONTH OF MAY IS ON ITS WAY OUT...AND WE ARE EXCITED TO
WELCOME THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON JUNE 1ST. WHAT BETTER
WAY TO CELEBRATE THAN TO TALK ABOUT FROST AND/OR FREEZE ISSUES?
WAIT...WHAT?!?! SADLY...AS MANY LONGTIME RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN KNOW ALL TOO WELL...THIS PLACE IS PRONE TO SOME CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT IN THE YEAR...AND IT WOULD
APPEAR WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF CANADIAN COOLNESS AS WE PUSH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THIS CASE...THE CULPRIT
IS OUR OLD FRIEND JAMES BAY HIGH PRESSURE...PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STICK
AROUND FOR QUITE SOME TIME. FOR US METEOROLOGISTS...THIS IS A REALLY
SIMPLE PATTERN...AS THERE WILL BE BASICALLY NO CHANCE FOR RAIN
COURTESY OF SOME VERY DRY AIR...MINUS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PESKY
SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR A TIME INTO SATURDAY.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER RECENT DAYS...QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
FIRST THING SATURDAY WILL SEND THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A LOOP...WITH A
TIGHT AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.. THAT FEATURE WILL FIND ITSELF INCREASINGLY DRIVEN INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AS OUR ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FLEXES
ITS MUSCLE...AND SOME VERY DRY AIR (PWAT VALUES DOWN BELOW 0.30
INCHES) ROLLS IN QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SAID FGEN FORCING
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH INITIAL REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRY TO KEEP A BAND OF RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST...THERE IS STILL A
TOUCH OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE INSISTENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAKISH
SHORTWAVE FEATURE HELPING EXTEND THE RAIN CHANCE A BIT LONGER IN THE
DAY...AND GIVEN THE SETUP (AND LOTS OF EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
EVENTS OVER THE YEARS)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF RAIN DID INDEED TAKE
A FEW MORE HOURS TO EXIT THE AREA.

THAT WILL ALL BE HISTORY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RAPIDLY CLEARS SKIES OUT.
THAT SETUP...IN COMBINATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRONOUNCED THERMAL
TROUGHING (H8 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD 0-2C) SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
COOL NIGHT. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...AN INFLUX OF VERY DRY DEW
POINTS SHOULD OFFSET THE WET SOILS...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF
WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG IN SPOTS. FROST
CONCERNS ALSO ARISE SIMPLY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVING...THOUGH AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WE DO LOOK TO HAVE A BIT
OF A LINGERING GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72. NONETHELESS...HAVE NO DOUBT THE USUAL SUSPECT SITES
WILL DECOUPLE AND HAVE A CHANCE TO CRASH THROUGH THE LOWER 30S...AND
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. A COLD START SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY BUT
STILL COOLISH SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR FROST/
FREEZE ISSUES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PARKS
ITSELF OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER EACH
RUN...WITH LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SIMPLY PUT...IF YOU HAVEN`T PLANTED YOUR
GARDEN YET...HANG TIGHT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS!


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK (AND
WELCOME THE MONTH OF JUNE)...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FROST IN MANY INLAND AREAS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL GRADUAL
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH BY WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH
MAYBE (THAT`S A BIG MAYBE) A LITTLE BETTER SHOT FOR ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HISTORY TIME AND AGAIN IN THESE SETUPS STRONGLY
ARGUES OUR LOCAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS WE STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WEAK SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING...WITH MY GUT
FEELING MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY NEAR APN. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL ENTER NORTHERN MI
OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP
AFTER 17Z...WITH APN THE MOST LIKELY TAF TO BE IMPACTED. WOULD NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF A LOW TSRA CHANCE IS TRICKY TO PORTRAY IN A TAF. HAVE MENTIONED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT APN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SHRA MOVE IN FROM THE W. CIGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR AS PRECIP BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EXITS LATER ON SATURDAY. SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS AIRMASS GETS MORE HUMID UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT PICK
UP FROM THE N TO NW ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MI. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 291059
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
659 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT...IN FACT IT WILL NOT
QUITE EXIT BY 12Z. DEEP SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN MI. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO...THIS WILL LIFT INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.

THIS MORNING...SHARP SUB-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEGINNING AT 09Z...A BIT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
THIS SOUPIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 300-500J/KG IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY INCLINED TO POP SOME SHRA IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...
WHICH IS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN LIMITED PROGRESS OF RICH THETA-
E AIR. BUT A SMALL CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA SOUTH OF M-32 IS
REASONABLE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN WE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON? SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY NEAR LAKE MI IN
NW LOWER MI...AND IN MOST OF EASTERN UPPER. BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHOOT UP TOWARD 1K J/KG BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF US-
131 IN NORTHERN LOWER. THIS IS UNCAPPED (A SLIGHT WARM NOSE AT 925
IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE PAST 18Z)...AND ANY LITTLE BOUNDARY WILL SET
THINGS OFF. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD CAPE MUCH
PAST THAT W/O DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. WILL HAVE SCT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 30-40KT RANGE IS HEALTHY BUT NOT OFF THE CHARTS. HODOGRAPH IS
NOT QUITE A STRAIGHT LINE...GENERALLY SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
SW ALOFT...BUT SHEAR IS DEFINITELY MORE SPEED AND LESS DIRECTIONAL.
MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SOMEWHAT BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN NE LOWER...
WHICH WOULD AMP UP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT IN GENERAL... SHEAR/
INSTABILITY PROGS SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SOME
SUPERCELLS AT TIMES. THE LATTER WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND/PERHAPS HAIL THREAT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT...MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND BROADER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN...LOWERING BELOW 1K J/KG OF
MUCAPE. THIS WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EASTERN UPPER TO MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW
BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST CONCERNS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER
SPOTS SEEING A HARD FREEZE (28F OR LOWER) ONE OR BOTH NIGHTS.

WELL...THE MONTH OF MAY IS ON ITS WAY OUT...AND WE ARE EXCITED TO
WELCOME THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON JUNE 1ST. WHAT BETTER
WAY TO CELEBRATE THAN TO TALK ABOUT FROST AND/OR FREEZE ISSUES?
WAIT...WHAT?!?! SADLY...AS MANY LONGTIME RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN KNOW ALL TOO WELL...THIS PLACE IS PRONE TO SOME CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT IN THE YEAR...AND IT WOULD
APPEAR WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF CANADIAN COOLNESS AS WE PUSH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THIS CASE...THE CULPRIT
IS OUR OLD FRIEND JAMES BAY HIGH PRESSURE...PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STICK
AROUND FOR QUITE SOME TIME. FOR US METEOROLOGISTS...THIS IS A REALLY
SIMPLE PATTERN...AS THERE WILL BE BASICALLY NO CHANCE FOR RAIN
COURTESY OF SOME VERY DRY AIR...MINUS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PESKY
SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR A TIME INTO SATURDAY.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER RECENT DAYS...QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
FIRST THING SATURDAY WILL SEND THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A LOOP...WITH A
TIGHT AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.. THAT FEATURE WILL FIND ITSELF INCREASINGLY DRIVEN INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AS OUR ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FLEXES
ITS MUSCLE...AND SOME VERY DRY AIR (PWAT VALUES DOWN BELOW 0.30
INCHES) ROLLS IN QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SAID FGEN FORCING
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH INITIAL REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRY TO KEEP A BAND OF RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST...THERE IS STILL A
TOUCH OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE INSISTENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAKISH
SHORTWAVE FEATURE HELPING EXTEND THE RAIN CHANCE A BIT LONGER IN THE
DAY...AND GIVEN THE SETUP (AND LOTS OF EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
EVENTS OVER THE YEARS)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF RAIN DID INDEED TAKE
A FEW MORE HOURS TO EXIT THE AREA.

THAT WILL ALL BE HISTORY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RAPIDLY CLEARS SKIES OUT.
THAT SETUP...IN COMBINATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRONOUNCED THERMAL
TROUGHING (H8 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD 0-2C) SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
COOL NIGHT. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...AN INFLUX OF VERY DRY DEW
POINTS SHOULD OFFSET THE WET SOILS...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF
WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG IN SPOTS. FROST
CONCERNS ALSO ARISE SIMPLY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVING...THOUGH AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WE DO LOOK TO HAVE A BIT
OF A LINGERING GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72. NONETHELESS...HAVE NO DOUBT THE USUAL SUSPECT SITES
WILL DECOUPLE AND HAVE A CHANCE TO CRASH THROUGH THE LOWER 30S...AND
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. A COLD START SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY BUT
STILL COOLISH SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR FROST/
FREEZE ISSUES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PARKS
ITSELF OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER EACH
RUN...WITH LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SIMPLY PUT...IF YOU HAVEN`T PLANTED YOUR
GARDEN YET...HANG TIGHT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS!


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK (AND
WELCOME THE MONTH OF JUNE)...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FROST IN MANY INLAND AREAS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL GRADUAL
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH BY WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH
MAYBE (THAT`S A BIG MAYBE) A LITTLE BETTER SHOT FOR ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HISTORY TIME AND AGAIN IN THESE SETUPS STRONGLY
ARGUES OUR LOCAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS WE STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WEAK SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING...WITH MY GUT
FEELING MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY NEAR APN. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL ENTER NORTHERN MI
OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP
AFTER 17Z...WITH APN THE MOST LIKELY TAF TO BE IMPACTED. WOULD NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF A LOW TSRA CHANCE IS TRICKY TO PORTRAY IN A TAF. HAVE MENTIONED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT APN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SHRA MOVE IN FROM THE W. CIGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR AS PRECIP BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EXITS LATER ON SATURDAY. SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS AIRMASS GETS MORE HUMID UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT PICK
UP FROM THE N TO NW ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MI. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KMQT 290904
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
504 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PACE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL PLAYS A BIG PART IN UNCERTAINTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOW TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
BATCH OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS NOW OVER SW WI AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS...AND ALMOST ALL OF THAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LAKE BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY HELP TO LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT RISK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND OTHER
VERY SHORT TERM DETAILS.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE
A FEW REASONS FOR THIS ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE. FIRST...THE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY SNOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER MI...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPORARILY SLOW IT DOWN.
SECOND...THE SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST FORCING.
THIRD...MEAN FLOW/STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN AREA OF GREATEST PRECIP FROM IRONWOOD
TO MARQUETTE...WITH 1-2 INCHES (OR MORE) SHOWN IN THIS AREA.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RECENT
RAINFALL...WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA BY 12Z MON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF A 1033MB HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NRN STREAM RIDGING OVER FAR WRN CANADA/ALASKA VCNTY THAT HAS BEEN A
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MANY WEEKS...AND REALLY MUCH OF THIS YEAR...
WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE UPCOMING CHANGES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER PATTERN (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO
THAT...ONE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE S INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IS STILL
VERY STRONG IN NW CANADA/ALASKA (500MB HEIGHTS AT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVG). WITH THE COLD AIR MASS...THERE
WILL BE TWO NIGHTS WITH FROST LIKELY (SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT). AS FOR
PCPN...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA...SEVERAL DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL. DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE NW CONUS TROF SENDS ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM.

BEGINNING SAT...AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLICING THRU LWR MI
AND HEADING SE WHILE THE CENTER OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WEAK SFC WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK COULD RESULT IN SOME -RA LINGERING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL
(AROUND KMNM) IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CAA/BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WITH FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO HOVER AT OR BLO 0C OVER WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE N TO THE MID/UPPER 50S S. AT LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THINNING OUT FROM NW TO SE THRU THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE NIGHT...NOT QUITE A PERFECT
LOCATION FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE FOR WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
AT THAT POSITION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
INTO NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...WON`T CONSIDER THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
MIN TEMPS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL AID RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WITH MINS AS LOW AS THE
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS AND MID/UPPER
30S LAKESIDE. SHOULD BE COLDEST INTERIOR W HALF. FROST/FREEZE IS
LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.

WHILE THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SFC HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT E ON SUN...
ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LAKE
BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S N TO THE LWR 60S SCNTRL/INTERIOR W. MANY LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S.

ON SUN NIGHT...GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO UNDER A QUARTER
INCH OVER THE E HALF WITH THE NAM DOWN TO ALMOST ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE CNTRL...BOTH MODELS LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING BACK INTO UPPER MI...SUN NIGHT COULD END UP AS COLD AS
SAT NIGHT IN MANY AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS.
OVERALL...MIN TEMP RANGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT...BUT
COLDEST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. WILL SEE ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE IN THE
INTERIOR.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MESO HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY MON.
SO...LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...THOUGH THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS ON SUN. IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKES.

TUE THRU THU...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ENSURE ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROF BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS AND LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS
UTILIZED. THIS RESULTS IN SCHC TO CHC POPS WED INCREASING SLIGHTLY
FOR THU. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH INCREASING
DWPTS GIVING A SUMMER FEEL TO THE WARMTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290904
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
504 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PACE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL PLAYS A BIG PART IN UNCERTAINTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOW TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
BATCH OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS NOW OVER SW WI AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS...AND ALMOST ALL OF THAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LAKE BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY HELP TO LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT RISK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND OTHER
VERY SHORT TERM DETAILS.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE
A FEW REASONS FOR THIS ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE. FIRST...THE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY SNOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER MI...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPORARILY SLOW IT DOWN.
SECOND...THE SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST FORCING.
THIRD...MEAN FLOW/STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN AREA OF GREATEST PRECIP FROM IRONWOOD
TO MARQUETTE...WITH 1-2 INCHES (OR MORE) SHOWN IN THIS AREA.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RECENT
RAINFALL...WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA BY 12Z MON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF A 1033MB HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NRN STREAM RIDGING OVER FAR WRN CANADA/ALASKA VCNTY THAT HAS BEEN A
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MANY WEEKS...AND REALLY MUCH OF THIS YEAR...
WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE UPCOMING CHANGES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER PATTERN (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO
THAT...ONE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE S INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IS STILL
VERY STRONG IN NW CANADA/ALASKA (500MB HEIGHTS AT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVG). WITH THE COLD AIR MASS...THERE
WILL BE TWO NIGHTS WITH FROST LIKELY (SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT). AS FOR
PCPN...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA...SEVERAL DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL. DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE NW CONUS TROF SENDS ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM.

BEGINNING SAT...AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLICING THRU LWR MI
AND HEADING SE WHILE THE CENTER OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WEAK SFC WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK COULD RESULT IN SOME -RA LINGERING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL
(AROUND KMNM) IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CAA/BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WITH FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO HOVER AT OR BLO 0C OVER WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE N TO THE MID/UPPER 50S S. AT LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THINNING OUT FROM NW TO SE THRU THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE NIGHT...NOT QUITE A PERFECT
LOCATION FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE FOR WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
AT THAT POSITION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
INTO NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...WON`T CONSIDER THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
MIN TEMPS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL AID RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WITH MINS AS LOW AS THE
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS AND MID/UPPER
30S LAKESIDE. SHOULD BE COLDEST INTERIOR W HALF. FROST/FREEZE IS
LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.

WHILE THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SFC HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT E ON SUN...
ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LAKE
BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S N TO THE LWR 60S SCNTRL/INTERIOR W. MANY LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S.

ON SUN NIGHT...GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO UNDER A QUARTER
INCH OVER THE E HALF WITH THE NAM DOWN TO ALMOST ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE CNTRL...BOTH MODELS LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING BACK INTO UPPER MI...SUN NIGHT COULD END UP AS COLD AS
SAT NIGHT IN MANY AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS.
OVERALL...MIN TEMP RANGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT...BUT
COLDEST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. WILL SEE ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE IN THE
INTERIOR.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MESO HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY MON.
SO...LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...THOUGH THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS ON SUN. IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKES.

TUE THRU THU...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ENSURE ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROF BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS AND LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS
UTILIZED. THIS RESULTS IN SCHC TO CHC POPS WED INCREASING SLIGHTLY
FOR THU. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH INCREASING
DWPTS GIVING A SUMMER FEEL TO THE WARMTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 290904
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
504 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PACE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL PLAYS A BIG PART IN UNCERTAINTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOW TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
BATCH OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS NOW OVER SW WI AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS...AND ALMOST ALL OF THAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LAKE BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY HELP TO LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT RISK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND OTHER
VERY SHORT TERM DETAILS.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE
A FEW REASONS FOR THIS ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE. FIRST...THE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY SNOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER MI...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPORARILY SLOW IT DOWN.
SECOND...THE SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST FORCING.
THIRD...MEAN FLOW/STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN AREA OF GREATEST PRECIP FROM IRONWOOD
TO MARQUETTE...WITH 1-2 INCHES (OR MORE) SHOWN IN THIS AREA.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RECENT
RAINFALL...WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA BY 12Z MON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF A 1033MB HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NRN STREAM RIDGING OVER FAR WRN CANADA/ALASKA VCNTY THAT HAS BEEN A
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MANY WEEKS...AND REALLY MUCH OF THIS YEAR...
WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE UPCOMING CHANGES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER PATTERN (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO
THAT...ONE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE S INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IS STILL
VERY STRONG IN NW CANADA/ALASKA (500MB HEIGHTS AT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVG). WITH THE COLD AIR MASS...THERE
WILL BE TWO NIGHTS WITH FROST LIKELY (SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT). AS FOR
PCPN...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA...SEVERAL DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL. DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE NW CONUS TROF SENDS ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM.

BEGINNING SAT...AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLICING THRU LWR MI
AND HEADING SE WHILE THE CENTER OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WEAK SFC WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK COULD RESULT IN SOME -RA LINGERING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL
(AROUND KMNM) IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CAA/BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WITH FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO HOVER AT OR BLO 0C OVER WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE N TO THE MID/UPPER 50S S. AT LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THINNING OUT FROM NW TO SE THRU THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE NIGHT...NOT QUITE A PERFECT
LOCATION FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE FOR WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
AT THAT POSITION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
INTO NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...WON`T CONSIDER THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
MIN TEMPS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL AID RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WITH MINS AS LOW AS THE
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS AND MID/UPPER
30S LAKESIDE. SHOULD BE COLDEST INTERIOR W HALF. FROST/FREEZE IS
LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.

WHILE THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SFC HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT E ON SUN...
ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LAKE
BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S N TO THE LWR 60S SCNTRL/INTERIOR W. MANY LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S.

ON SUN NIGHT...GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO UNDER A QUARTER
INCH OVER THE E HALF WITH THE NAM DOWN TO ALMOST ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE CNTRL...BOTH MODELS LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING BACK INTO UPPER MI...SUN NIGHT COULD END UP AS COLD AS
SAT NIGHT IN MANY AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS.
OVERALL...MIN TEMP RANGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT...BUT
COLDEST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. WILL SEE ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE IN THE
INTERIOR.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MESO HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY MON.
SO...LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...THOUGH THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS ON SUN. IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKES.

TUE THRU THU...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ENSURE ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROF BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS AND LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS
UTILIZED. THIS RESULTS IN SCHC TO CHC POPS WED INCREASING SLIGHTLY
FOR THU. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH INCREASING
DWPTS GIVING A SUMMER FEEL TO THE WARMTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290810
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PACE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL PLAYS A BIG PART IN UNCERTAINTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOW TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
BATCH OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS NOW OVER SW WI AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS...AND ALMOST ALL OF THAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LAKE BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY HELP TO LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT RISK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND OTHER
VERY SHORT TERM DETAILS.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE
A FEW REASONS FOR THIS ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE. FIRST...THE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY SNOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER MI...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPORARILY SLOW IT DOWN.
SECOND...THE SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST FORCING.
THIRD...MEAN FLOW/STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN AREA OF GREATEST PRECIP FROM IRONWOOD
TO MARQUETTE...WITH 1-2 INCHES (OR MORE) SHOWN IN THIS AREA.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RECENT
RAINFALL...WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA BY 12Z MON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF A 1033MB HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290810
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PACE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL PLAYS A BIG PART IN UNCERTAINTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOW TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
BATCH OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS NOW OVER SW WI AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS...AND ALMOST ALL OF THAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LAKE BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY HELP TO LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT RISK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND OTHER
VERY SHORT TERM DETAILS.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE
A FEW REASONS FOR THIS ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE. FIRST...THE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY SNOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER MI...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPORARILY SLOW IT DOWN.
SECOND...THE SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST FORCING.
THIRD...MEAN FLOW/STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN AREA OF GREATEST PRECIP FROM IRONWOOD
TO MARQUETTE...WITH 1-2 INCHES (OR MORE) SHOWN IN THIS AREA.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RECENT
RAINFALL...WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA BY 12Z MON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF A 1033MB HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 290810
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PACE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL PLAYS A BIG PART IN UNCERTAINTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOW TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
BATCH OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS NOW OVER SW WI AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS...AND ALMOST ALL OF THAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LAKE BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY HELP TO LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT RISK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND OTHER
VERY SHORT TERM DETAILS.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE
A FEW REASONS FOR THIS ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE. FIRST...THE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY SNOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER MI...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPORARILY SLOW IT DOWN.
SECOND...THE SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST FORCING.
THIRD...MEAN FLOW/STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN AREA OF GREATEST PRECIP FROM IRONWOOD
TO MARQUETTE...WITH 1-2 INCHES (OR MORE) SHOWN IN THIS AREA.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RECENT
RAINFALL...WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA BY 12Z MON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF A 1033MB HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290810
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PACE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL PLAYS A BIG PART IN UNCERTAINTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOW TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
BATCH OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS NOW OVER SW WI AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS...AND ALMOST ALL OF THAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LAKE BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY HELP TO LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT RISK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND OTHER
VERY SHORT TERM DETAILS.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE
A FEW REASONS FOR THIS ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE. FIRST...THE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY SNOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER MI...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPORARILY SLOW IT DOWN.
SECOND...THE SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST FORCING.
THIRD...MEAN FLOW/STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN AREA OF GREATEST PRECIP FROM IRONWOOD
TO MARQUETTE...WITH 1-2 INCHES (OR MORE) SHOWN IN THIS AREA.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RECENT
RAINFALL...WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA BY 12Z MON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF A 1033MB HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 290727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND HUMID
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW WARM UP
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECT THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE ISSUE TODAY IS THE THREAT FOR DAY TIME CONVECTION WITH THE
SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT
ISSUE IS THE RAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE
DAY. FINALLY THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

IT IS RATHER CLEAR FROM LOOPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS (VARIOUS
MODELS) THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SURFACE TO 850 MEAN DEW
POINTS A WARM FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS TO LOOK A TOUCH MOIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA (EXCEPT NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE) FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK... UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH (JET IS FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST YET). THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THAT GO NORTH OF OUR
CWA. MY SPIN ON THIS IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID EVENING THEN WE
WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH. SEEMS THE RAIN WILL
LARGELY BE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SATURDAY EVEN THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
OVER 40 KNOTS. MOSTLY THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A COLD RAIN THAN
ANYTHING ELSE. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE... AS I LIKE TO CALL IT... JET
LIFT EVENTS (WE ARE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET).
TEMPEATURES COULD FALL DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN
SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SO SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AND IT WILL GET CHILLY. WE MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES (I DID NOT ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS AS I WAS NOT
SURE OF THIS JUST YET). THE GLITCH THOUGH TO WATCH WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WE HAVE A SHEARING OUT SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING THROUGH. IF THE MODELS ARE JUST A TOUCH TO FAST
AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH (TYPICAL ERROR FOR THIS SORT OF THING) WE MAY
SEE THE SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO MATTER WHAT SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER. SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NNE FCST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE.

AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SFC WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL NEED SOME SORT OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR
SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND BUILD LARGE WAVES WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...WDM



000
FXUS63 KGRR 290727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND HUMID
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW WARM UP
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECT THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE ISSUE TODAY IS THE THREAT FOR DAY TIME CONVECTION WITH THE
SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT
ISSUE IS THE RAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE
DAY. FINALLY THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

IT IS RATHER CLEAR FROM LOOPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS (VARIOUS
MODELS) THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SURFACE TO 850 MEAN DEW
POINTS A WARM FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS TO LOOK A TOUCH MOIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA (EXCEPT NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE) FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK... UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH (JET IS FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST YET). THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THAT GO NORTH OF OUR
CWA. MY SPIN ON THIS IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID EVENING THEN WE
WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH. SEEMS THE RAIN WILL
LARGELY BE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SATURDAY EVEN THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
OVER 40 KNOTS. MOSTLY THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A COLD RAIN THAN
ANYTHING ELSE. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE... AS I LIKE TO CALL IT... JET
LIFT EVENTS (WE ARE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET).
TEMPEATURES COULD FALL DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN
SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SO SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AND IT WILL GET CHILLY. WE MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES (I DID NOT ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS AS I WAS NOT
SURE OF THIS JUST YET). THE GLITCH THOUGH TO WATCH WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WE HAVE A SHEARING OUT SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING THROUGH. IF THE MODELS ARE JUST A TOUCH TO FAST
AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH (TYPICAL ERROR FOR THIS SORT OF THING) WE MAY
SEE THE SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO MATTER WHAT SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER. SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NNE FCST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE.

AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SFC WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL NEED SOME SORT OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR
SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND BUILD LARGE WAVES WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND HUMID
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW WARM UP
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECT THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE ISSUE TODAY IS THE THREAT FOR DAY TIME CONVECTION WITH THE
SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT
ISSUE IS THE RAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE
DAY. FINALLY THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

IT IS RATHER CLEAR FROM LOOPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS (VARIOUS
MODELS) THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SURFACE TO 850 MEAN DEW
POINTS A WARM FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS TO LOOK A TOUCH MOIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA (EXCEPT NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE) FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK... UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH (JET IS FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST YET). THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THAT GO NORTH OF OUR
CWA. MY SPIN ON THIS IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID EVENING THEN WE
WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH. SEEMS THE RAIN WILL
LARGELY BE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SATURDAY EVEN THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
OVER 40 KNOTS. MOSTLY THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A COLD RAIN THAN
ANYTHING ELSE. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE... AS I LIKE TO CALL IT... JET
LIFT EVENTS (WE ARE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET).
TEMPEATURES COULD FALL DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN
SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SO SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AND IT WILL GET CHILLY. WE MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES (I DID NOT ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS AS I WAS NOT
SURE OF THIS JUST YET). THE GLITCH THOUGH TO WATCH WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WE HAVE A SHEARING OUT SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING THROUGH. IF THE MODELS ARE JUST A TOUCH TO FAST
AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH (TYPICAL ERROR FOR THIS SORT OF THING) WE MAY
SEE THE SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO MATTER WHAT SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER. SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NNE FCST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE.

AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SFC WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL NEED SOME SORT OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR
SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND BUILD LARGE WAVES WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...WDM



000
FXUS63 KGRR 290727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND HUMID
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW WARM UP
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECT THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE ISSUE TODAY IS THE THREAT FOR DAY TIME CONVECTION WITH THE
SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT
ISSUE IS THE RAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE
DAY. FINALLY THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

IT IS RATHER CLEAR FROM LOOPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS (VARIOUS
MODELS) THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SURFACE TO 850 MEAN DEW
POINTS A WARM FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS TO LOOK A TOUCH MOIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA (EXCEPT NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE) FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK... UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH (JET IS FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST YET). THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THAT GO NORTH OF OUR
CWA. MY SPIN ON THIS IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID EVENING THEN WE
WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH. SEEMS THE RAIN WILL
LARGELY BE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SATURDAY EVEN THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
OVER 40 KNOTS. MOSTLY THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A COLD RAIN THAN
ANYTHING ELSE. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE... AS I LIKE TO CALL IT... JET
LIFT EVENTS (WE ARE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET).
TEMPEATURES COULD FALL DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN
SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SO SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AND IT WILL GET CHILLY. WE MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES (I DID NOT ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS AS I WAS NOT
SURE OF THIS JUST YET). THE GLITCH THOUGH TO WATCH WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WE HAVE A SHEARING OUT SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING THROUGH. IF THE MODELS ARE JUST A TOUCH TO FAST
AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH (TYPICAL ERROR FOR THIS SORT OF THING) WE MAY
SEE THE SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO MATTER WHAT SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER. SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NNE FCST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE.

AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SFC WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL NEED SOME SORT OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR
SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND BUILD LARGE WAVES WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...WDM



000
FXUS63 KGRR 290727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND HUMID
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW WARM UP
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECT THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE ISSUE TODAY IS THE THREAT FOR DAY TIME CONVECTION WITH THE
SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT
ISSUE IS THE RAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE
DAY. FINALLY THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

IT IS RATHER CLEAR FROM LOOPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS (VARIOUS
MODELS) THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SURFACE TO 850 MEAN DEW
POINTS A WARM FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS TO LOOK A TOUCH MOIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA (EXCEPT NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE) FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK... UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH (JET IS FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST YET). THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THAT GO NORTH OF OUR
CWA. MY SPIN ON THIS IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID EVENING THEN WE
WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH. SEEMS THE RAIN WILL
LARGELY BE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SATURDAY EVEN THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
OVER 40 KNOTS. MOSTLY THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A COLD RAIN THAN
ANYTHING ELSE. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE... AS I LIKE TO CALL IT... JET
LIFT EVENTS (WE ARE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET).
TEMPEATURES COULD FALL DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN
SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SO SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AND IT WILL GET CHILLY. WE MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES (I DID NOT ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS AS I WAS NOT
SURE OF THIS JUST YET). THE GLITCH THOUGH TO WATCH WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WE HAVE A SHEARING OUT SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING THROUGH. IF THE MODELS ARE JUST A TOUCH TO FAST
AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH (TYPICAL ERROR FOR THIS SORT OF THING) WE MAY
SEE THE SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO MATTER WHAT SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER. SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NNE FCST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE.

AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SFC WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL NEED SOME SORT OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR
SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND BUILD LARGE WAVES WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...WDM



000
FXUS63 KGRR 290727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND HUMID
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW WARM UP
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECT THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE ISSUE TODAY IS THE THREAT FOR DAY TIME CONVECTION WITH THE
SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT
ISSUE IS THE RAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE
DAY. FINALLY THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

IT IS RATHER CLEAR FROM LOOPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS (VARIOUS
MODELS) THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SURFACE TO 850 MEAN DEW
POINTS A WARM FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS TO LOOK A TOUCH MOIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA (EXCEPT NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE) FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK... UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH (JET IS FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST YET). THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THAT GO NORTH OF OUR
CWA. MY SPIN ON THIS IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID EVENING THEN WE
WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH. SEEMS THE RAIN WILL
LARGELY BE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SATURDAY EVEN THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
OVER 40 KNOTS. MOSTLY THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A COLD RAIN THAN
ANYTHING ELSE. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE... AS I LIKE TO CALL IT... JET
LIFT EVENTS (WE ARE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET).
TEMPEATURES COULD FALL DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN
SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SO SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AND IT WILL GET CHILLY. WE MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES (I DID NOT ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS AS I WAS NOT
SURE OF THIS JUST YET). THE GLITCH THOUGH TO WATCH WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WE HAVE A SHEARING OUT SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING THROUGH. IF THE MODELS ARE JUST A TOUCH TO FAST
AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH (TYPICAL ERROR FOR THIS SORT OF THING) WE MAY
SEE THE SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO MATTER WHAT SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER. SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NNE FCST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE.

AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SFC WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL NEED SOME SORT OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR
SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND BUILD LARGE WAVES WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...WDM



000
FXUS63 KDTX 290703
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF STRONG
POLAR LOW DIGGING INTO WESTERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...JUST BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ELEVATED
WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. ENTIRE CWA WILL EFFECTIVELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY 12Z-14Z. HOWEVER, SLOWLY RETREATING EAST COAST
ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A COMPONENT OF SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE DETROIT
AREA NORTH TOWARD PORT HURON. WINDS WILL NOT VEER ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE LAKE SHADOW EFFECTS ACROSS THE EAST, SO, WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE, LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR THE METRO AREA . INSTEAD, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE MAXIMUM TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS CONFIRM MODEL PROGS WHICH INDICATE
TDS RISING INTO THE MID 60S BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT CU
COVERAGE, SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE RISING TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WEAKLY
SHEARED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. LACK OF FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING
MECHANISM WILL RENDER UPDRAFT INITIATION CONDITIONAL ON POCKETS OF
PREFERENTIAL HEATING AND BROAD/WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION.
NOTHING BETTER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND LOCALES WEST OF U.S. 23,
GREATER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING WILL INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE AS WELL AS STORM POTENTIAL TO
CAPITALIZE ON DRY MID-LEVELS & WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ENTIRELY DEPENDENT DIABATIC COOLING.

LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY EVENING CONVECTION TO EXPIRE
BY SUNSET, BUT NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL EVENTUALLY REPLENISH WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF A LOW COVERAGE OF WEAKLY SHEARED MULTICELL
TYPE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK OF A DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
ELIMINATES ANY NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL
MUCH BELOW 70 IN SOUPY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DEEP UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC
ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. A
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS ERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS LOWER MI TIED TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.8 IN/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SE MI ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO PERHAPS
MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER MOST OF SE MI. SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION /TIMING OF WHICH IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
STAGE IN THE FCST/. THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES/S/ SUGGEST A REGION OF CONVECTION ON SAT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
WHICH ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SAT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /CAPE GREATER
THAN 1K J/KG/ AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF ANY UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATIVE CONVECTION SUGGESTS A RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION BECOMES HIGHLY SUSPECT AS IT IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THUS DEVELOPS A QUASI STATIONARY
MCS OVER SRN MI. THE PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN UPPER WAVE SHOULD
RESULT IN A FASTER FRONTAL PUSH THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO SE MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE N AND NE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUSTAIN THIS COOL AND DRY AIR
AMIDST E-NE FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO
A MODEST WARMING TREND.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...PRECEDING THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE
ERIE SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE
WINDS TO THE N-NW. AN INCREASING GRADIENT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF MUCH
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL CONSTITUTE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT COVERAGE AND DENSITY WILL BE
LIMITED AS SOUTH WIND STRUGGLES TO INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER BASED CU/AC CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST TOWARD SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE THE FIRST SIGN OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL MAINLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT MBS
AND FNT BY MID EVENING.

FOR DTW... THE WIND STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WILL BRING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE INTO THE TERMINAL FROM LAKE
ERIE. THIS ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO MVFR FOG RESTRICTION BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON IFR IN THE FORECAST AND MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
INCREASING WIND SPEED AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT IFR RESTRICTION
THROUGH MID MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT 5000 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND FRIDAY
  TONIGHT.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290703
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT...IN FACT IT WILL NOT
QUITE EXIT BY 12Z. DEEP SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN MI. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO...THIS WILL LIFT INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.

THIS MORNING...SHARP SUB-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEGINNING AT 09Z...A BIT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
THIS SOUPIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 300-500J/KG IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY INCLINED TO POP SOME SHRA IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...
WHICH IS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN LIMITED PROGRESS OF RICH THETA-
E AIR. BUT A SMALL CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA SOUTH OF M-32 IS
REASONABLE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN WE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON? SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY NEAR LAKE MI IN
NW LOWER MI...AND IN MOST OF EASTERN UPPER. BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHOOT UP TOWARD 1K J/KG BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF US-
131 IN NORTHERN LOWER. THIS IS UNCAPPED (A SLIGHT WARM NOSE AT 925
IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE PAST 18Z)...AND ANY LITTLE BOUNDARY WILL SET
THINGS OFF. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD CAPE MUCH
PAST THAT W/O DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. WILL HAVE SCT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 30-40KT RANGE IS HEALTHY BUT NOT OFF THE CHARTS. HODOGRAPH IS
NOT QUITE A STRAIGHT LINE...GENERALLY SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
SW ALOFT...BUT SHEAR IS DEFINITELY MORE SPEED AND LESS DIRECTIONAL.
MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SOMEWHAT BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN NE LOWER...
WHICH WOULD AMP UP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT IN GENERAL... SHEAR/
INSTABILITY PROGS SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SOME
SUPERCELLS AT TIMES. THE LATTER WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND/PERHAPS HAIL THREAT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT...MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND BROADER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN...LOWERING BELOW 1K J/KG OF
MUCAPE. THIS WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EASTERN UPPER TO MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW
BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST CONCERNS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER
SPOTS SEEING A HARD FREEZE (28F OR LOWER) ONE OR BOTH NIGHTS.

WELL...THE MONTH OF MAY IS ON ITS WAY OUT...AND WE ARE EXCITED TO
WELCOME THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON JUNE 1ST. WHAT BETTER
WAY TO CELEBRATE THAN TO TALK ABOUT FROST AND/OR FREEZE ISSUES?
WAIT...WHAT?!?! SADLY...AS MANY LONGTIME RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN KNOW ALL TOO WELL...THIS PLACE IS PRONE TO SOME CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT IN THE YEAR...AND IT WOULD
APPEAR WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF CANADIAN COOLNESS AS WE PUSH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THIS CASE...THE CULPRIT
IS OUR OLD FRIEND JAMES BAY HIGH PRESSURE...PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STICK
AROUND FOR QUITE SOME TIME. FOR US METEOROLOGISTS...THIS IS A REALLY
SIMPLE PATTERN...AS THERE WILL BE BASICALLY NO CHANCE FOR RAIN
COURTESY OF SOME VERY DRY AIR...MINUS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PESKY
SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR A TIME INTO SATURDAY.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER RECENT DAYS...QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
FIRST THING SATURDAY WILL SEND THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A LOOP...WITH A
TIGHT AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.. THAT FEATURE WILL FIND ITSELF INCREASINGLY DRIVEN INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AS OUR ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FLEXES
ITS MUSCLE...AND SOME VERY DRY AIR (PWAT VALUES DOWN BELOW 0.30
INCHES) ROLLS IN QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SAID FGEN FORCING
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH INITIAL REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRY TO KEEP A BAND OF RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST...THERE IS STILL A
TOUCH OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE INSISTENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAKISH
SHORTWAVE FEATURE HELPING EXTEND THE RAIN CHANCE A BIT LONGER IN THE
DAY...AND GIVEN THE SETUP (AND LOTS OF EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
EVENTS OVER THE YEARS)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF RAIN DID INDEED TAKE
A FEW MORE HOURS TO EXIT THE AREA.

THAT WILL ALL BE HISTORY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RAPIDLY CLEARS SKIES OUT.
THAT SETUP...IN COMBINATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRONOUNCED THERMAL
TROUGHING (H8 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD 0-2C) SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
COOL NIGHT. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...AN INFLUX OF VERY DRY DEW
POINTS SHOULD OFFSET THE WET SOILS...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF
WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG IN SPOTS. FROST
CONCERNS ALSO ARISE SIMPLY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVING...THOUGH AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WE DO LOOK TO HAVE A BIT
OF A LINGERING GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72. NONETHELESS...HAVE NO DOUBT THE USUAL SUSPECT SITES
WILL DECOUPLE AND HAVE A CHANCE TO CRASH THROUGH THE LOWER 30S...AND
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. A COLD START SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY BUT
STILL COOLISH SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR FROST/
FREEZE ISSUES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PARKS
ITSELF OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER EACH
RUN...WITH LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SIMPLY PUT...IF YOU HAVEN`T PLANTED YOUR
GARDEN YET...HANG TIGHT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS!

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK (AND
WELCOME THE MONTH OF JUNE)...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FROST IN MANY INLAND AREAS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL GRADUAL
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH BY WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH
MAYBE (THAT`S A BIG MAYBE) A LITTLE BETTER SHOT FOR ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HISTORY TIME AND AGAIN IN THESE SETUPS STRONGLY
ARGUES OUR LOCAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS WE STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WEAK SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING...WITH MY GUT
FEELING MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD WILL ENTER NORTHERN
MI OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AIDING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT TSRA TO
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z...WITH APN THE MOST LIKELY TAF TO BE IMPACTED.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA...BUT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF A LOW TSRA CHANCE IS TRICKY TO PORTRAY IN A
TAF. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW THE VCSH PATH. OVERNIGHT...PREVAILING
-SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. LLWS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONGER S WINDS OFF THE DECK. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EXITS LATER ON SATURDAY. SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS AIRMASS GETS MORE HUMID UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT PICK
UP FROM THE N TO NW ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MI. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290703
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT...IN FACT IT WILL NOT
QUITE EXIT BY 12Z. DEEP SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN MI. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO...THIS WILL LIFT INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.

THIS MORNING...SHARP SUB-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEGINNING AT 09Z...A BIT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
THIS SOUPIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 300-500J/KG IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY INCLINED TO POP SOME SHRA IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...
WHICH IS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN LIMITED PROGRESS OF RICH THETA-
E AIR. BUT A SMALL CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA SOUTH OF M-32 IS
REASONABLE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN WE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON? SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY NEAR LAKE MI IN
NW LOWER MI...AND IN MOST OF EASTERN UPPER. BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHOOT UP TOWARD 1K J/KG BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF US-
131 IN NORTHERN LOWER. THIS IS UNCAPPED (A SLIGHT WARM NOSE AT 925
IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE PAST 18Z)...AND ANY LITTLE BOUNDARY WILL SET
THINGS OFF. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD CAPE MUCH
PAST THAT W/O DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. WILL HAVE SCT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 30-40KT RANGE IS HEALTHY BUT NOT OFF THE CHARTS. HODOGRAPH IS
NOT QUITE A STRAIGHT LINE...GENERALLY SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
SW ALOFT...BUT SHEAR IS DEFINITELY MORE SPEED AND LESS DIRECTIONAL.
MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SOMEWHAT BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN NE LOWER...
WHICH WOULD AMP UP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT IN GENERAL... SHEAR/
INSTABILITY PROGS SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SOME
SUPERCELLS AT TIMES. THE LATTER WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND/PERHAPS HAIL THREAT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT...MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND BROADER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN...LOWERING BELOW 1K J/KG OF
MUCAPE. THIS WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EASTERN UPPER TO MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW
BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST CONCERNS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER
SPOTS SEEING A HARD FREEZE (28F OR LOWER) ONE OR BOTH NIGHTS.

WELL...THE MONTH OF MAY IS ON ITS WAY OUT...AND WE ARE EXCITED TO
WELCOME THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON JUNE 1ST. WHAT BETTER
WAY TO CELEBRATE THAN TO TALK ABOUT FROST AND/OR FREEZE ISSUES?
WAIT...WHAT?!?! SADLY...AS MANY LONGTIME RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN KNOW ALL TOO WELL...THIS PLACE IS PRONE TO SOME CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT IN THE YEAR...AND IT WOULD
APPEAR WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF CANADIAN COOLNESS AS WE PUSH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THIS CASE...THE CULPRIT
IS OUR OLD FRIEND JAMES BAY HIGH PRESSURE...PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STICK
AROUND FOR QUITE SOME TIME. FOR US METEOROLOGISTS...THIS IS A REALLY
SIMPLE PATTERN...AS THERE WILL BE BASICALLY NO CHANCE FOR RAIN
COURTESY OF SOME VERY DRY AIR...MINUS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PESKY
SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR A TIME INTO SATURDAY.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER RECENT DAYS...QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
FIRST THING SATURDAY WILL SEND THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A LOOP...WITH A
TIGHT AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.. THAT FEATURE WILL FIND ITSELF INCREASINGLY DRIVEN INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AS OUR ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FLEXES
ITS MUSCLE...AND SOME VERY DRY AIR (PWAT VALUES DOWN BELOW 0.30
INCHES) ROLLS IN QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SAID FGEN FORCING
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH INITIAL REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRY TO KEEP A BAND OF RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST...THERE IS STILL A
TOUCH OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE INSISTENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAKISH
SHORTWAVE FEATURE HELPING EXTEND THE RAIN CHANCE A BIT LONGER IN THE
DAY...AND GIVEN THE SETUP (AND LOTS OF EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
EVENTS OVER THE YEARS)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF RAIN DID INDEED TAKE
A FEW MORE HOURS TO EXIT THE AREA.

THAT WILL ALL BE HISTORY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RAPIDLY CLEARS SKIES OUT.
THAT SETUP...IN COMBINATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRONOUNCED THERMAL
TROUGHING (H8 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD 0-2C) SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
COOL NIGHT. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...AN INFLUX OF VERY DRY DEW
POINTS SHOULD OFFSET THE WET SOILS...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF
WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG IN SPOTS. FROST
CONCERNS ALSO ARISE SIMPLY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVING...THOUGH AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WE DO LOOK TO HAVE A BIT
OF A LINGERING GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72. NONETHELESS...HAVE NO DOUBT THE USUAL SUSPECT SITES
WILL DECOUPLE AND HAVE A CHANCE TO CRASH THROUGH THE LOWER 30S...AND
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. A COLD START SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY BUT
STILL COOLISH SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR FROST/
FREEZE ISSUES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PARKS
ITSELF OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER EACH
RUN...WITH LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SIMPLY PUT...IF YOU HAVEN`T PLANTED YOUR
GARDEN YET...HANG TIGHT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS!

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK (AND
WELCOME THE MONTH OF JUNE)...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FROST IN MANY INLAND AREAS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL GRADUAL
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH BY WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH
MAYBE (THAT`S A BIG MAYBE) A LITTLE BETTER SHOT FOR ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HISTORY TIME AND AGAIN IN THESE SETUPS STRONGLY
ARGUES OUR LOCAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS WE STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WEAK SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING...WITH MY GUT
FEELING MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD WILL ENTER NORTHERN
MI OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AIDING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT TSRA TO
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z...WITH APN THE MOST LIKELY TAF TO BE IMPACTED.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA...BUT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF A LOW TSRA CHANCE IS TRICKY TO PORTRAY IN A
TAF. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW THE VCSH PATH. OVERNIGHT...PREVAILING
-SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. LLWS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONGER S WINDS OFF THE DECK. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EXITS LATER ON SATURDAY. SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS AIRMASS GETS MORE HUMID UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT PICK
UP FROM THE N TO NW ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MI. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 290552
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS THAT TRIED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING OUR 88D
VOID OF RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA...SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S..  THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.

NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY.  NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.  FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.  WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT.  ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.

SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD WILL ENTER NORTHERN
MI OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AIDING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT TSRA TO
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z...WITH APN THE MOST LIKELY TAF TO BE IMPACTED.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA...BUT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF A LOW TSRA CHANCE IS TRICKY TO PORTRAY IN A
TAF. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW THE VCSH PATH. OVERNIGHT...PREVAILING
-SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. LLWS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONGER S WINDS OFF THE DECK. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290552
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS THAT TRIED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING OUR 88D
VOID OF RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA...SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S..  THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.

NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY.  NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.  FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.  WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT.  ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.

SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD WILL ENTER NORTHERN
MI OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AIDING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT TSRA TO
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z...WITH APN THE MOST LIKELY TAF TO BE IMPACTED.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA...BUT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF A LOW TSRA CHANCE IS TRICKY TO PORTRAY IN A
TAF. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW THE VCSH PATH. OVERNIGHT...PREVAILING
-SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. LLWS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONGER S WINDS OFF THE DECK. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 290523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER SCNTRL CANADA WITH EXTENSION OF THAT
TROUGH TO SW OVER THE US ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS NW
ONTARIO. TAIL OF THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS RATHER UNORGANIZED AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MLCAPES
OVER 1000J/KG TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA OVER MOSTLY WEST
UPR MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY
WEAKER LIFT/SHEAR ALOFT...MAYBE UP AROUND 30 KTS. STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG. OVERALL...THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOWER THAN
YDY GIVEN WEAK LIFT/SHEAR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL OCCUR AS WELL
WHICH IF IT OCCURRED OVER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE RIVER BASINS /CRFM4
AND HRVM4/. ONCE THESE SHRA/TSRA RUN THEIR COURSE...EXPECT LULL AS
MAIN FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT LIKELY TURNS TO DENSE FOG NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS FOG OVER LK
MICHIGAN COMES IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUT A DENSE FOG ADVY OUT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE ON LAND WILL MORE PATCHY SO NO
ADVY THERE.

ATTN LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF OK/KS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD UPR LAKES
TOWARD MORNING...09Z-12Z AT THE WI BORDER AND SHORTLY AFT 12Z CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TSRA WILL TIE INTO THESE SHRA AS
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES STAY BLO 500J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
TSRA GOING. LIKELY MORE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY THOUGH AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER
+10C. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS AND ALSO THE CHOCOLAY RIVER BASIN NEAR HARVEY AS RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AS SHOWING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE FOR
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD UP MID-LATE AFTN
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO WORK ON. GIVEN PERSISTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTN...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA. STILL AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 RISK WHICH KEEPS BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE SOUTH OF CWA
MORE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. BASED ON CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY SEE STRONG STORMS TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO SCNTRL CWA /IMT/MNM/ESC/ LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE MORE WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. ANY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER SCNTRL CANADA WITH EXTENSION OF THAT
TROUGH TO SW OVER THE US ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS NW
ONTARIO. TAIL OF THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS RATHER UNORGANIZED AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MLCAPES
OVER 1000J/KG TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA OVER MOSTLY WEST
UPR MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY
WEAKER LIFT/SHEAR ALOFT...MAYBE UP AROUND 30 KTS. STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG. OVERALL...THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOWER THAN
YDY GIVEN WEAK LIFT/SHEAR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL OCCUR AS WELL
WHICH IF IT OCCURRED OVER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE RIVER BASINS /CRFM4
AND HRVM4/. ONCE THESE SHRA/TSRA RUN THEIR COURSE...EXPECT LULL AS
MAIN FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT LIKELY TURNS TO DENSE FOG NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS FOG OVER LK
MICHIGAN COMES IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUT A DENSE FOG ADVY OUT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE ON LAND WILL MORE PATCHY SO NO
ADVY THERE.

ATTN LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF OK/KS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD UPR LAKES
TOWARD MORNING...09Z-12Z AT THE WI BORDER AND SHORTLY AFT 12Z CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TSRA WILL TIE INTO THESE SHRA AS
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES STAY BLO 500J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
TSRA GOING. LIKELY MORE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY THOUGH AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER
+10C. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS AND ALSO THE CHOCOLAY RIVER BASIN NEAR HARVEY AS RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AS SHOWING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE FOR
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD UP MID-LATE AFTN
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO WORK ON. GIVEN PERSISTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTN...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA. STILL AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 RISK WHICH KEEPS BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE SOUTH OF CWA
MORE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. BASED ON CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY SEE STRONG STORMS TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO SCNTRL CWA /IMT/MNM/ESC/ LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE MORE WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. ANY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER SCNTRL CANADA WITH EXTENSION OF THAT
TROUGH TO SW OVER THE US ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS NW
ONTARIO. TAIL OF THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS RATHER UNORGANIZED AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MLCAPES
OVER 1000J/KG TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA OVER MOSTLY WEST
UPR MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY
WEAKER LIFT/SHEAR ALOFT...MAYBE UP AROUND 30 KTS. STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG. OVERALL...THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOWER THAN
YDY GIVEN WEAK LIFT/SHEAR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL OCCUR AS WELL
WHICH IF IT OCCURRED OVER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE RIVER BASINS /CRFM4
AND HRVM4/. ONCE THESE SHRA/TSRA RUN THEIR COURSE...EXPECT LULL AS
MAIN FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT LIKELY TURNS TO DENSE FOG NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS FOG OVER LK
MICHIGAN COMES IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUT A DENSE FOG ADVY OUT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE ON LAND WILL MORE PATCHY SO NO
ADVY THERE.

ATTN LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF OK/KS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD UPR LAKES
TOWARD MORNING...09Z-12Z AT THE WI BORDER AND SHORTLY AFT 12Z CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TSRA WILL TIE INTO THESE SHRA AS
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES STAY BLO 500J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
TSRA GOING. LIKELY MORE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY THOUGH AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER
+10C. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS AND ALSO THE CHOCOLAY RIVER BASIN NEAR HARVEY AS RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AS SHOWING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE FOR
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD UP MID-LATE AFTN
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO WORK ON. GIVEN PERSISTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTN...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA. STILL AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 RISK WHICH KEEPS BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE SOUTH OF CWA
MORE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. BASED ON CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY SEE STRONG STORMS TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO SCNTRL CWA /IMT/MNM/ESC/ LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE MORE WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. ANY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER SCNTRL CANADA WITH EXTENSION OF THAT
TROUGH TO SW OVER THE US ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS NW
ONTARIO. TAIL OF THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS RATHER UNORGANIZED AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MLCAPES
OVER 1000J/KG TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA OVER MOSTLY WEST
UPR MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY
WEAKER LIFT/SHEAR ALOFT...MAYBE UP AROUND 30 KTS. STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG. OVERALL...THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOWER THAN
YDY GIVEN WEAK LIFT/SHEAR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL OCCUR AS WELL
WHICH IF IT OCCURRED OVER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE RIVER BASINS /CRFM4
AND HRVM4/. ONCE THESE SHRA/TSRA RUN THEIR COURSE...EXPECT LULL AS
MAIN FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT LIKELY TURNS TO DENSE FOG NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS FOG OVER LK
MICHIGAN COMES IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUT A DENSE FOG ADVY OUT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE ON LAND WILL MORE PATCHY SO NO
ADVY THERE.

ATTN LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF OK/KS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD UPR LAKES
TOWARD MORNING...09Z-12Z AT THE WI BORDER AND SHORTLY AFT 12Z CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TSRA WILL TIE INTO THESE SHRA AS
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES STAY BLO 500J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
TSRA GOING. LIKELY MORE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY THOUGH AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER
+10C. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS AND ALSO THE CHOCOLAY RIVER BASIN NEAR HARVEY AS RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AS SHOWING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE FOR
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD UP MID-LATE AFTN
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO WORK ON. GIVEN PERSISTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTN...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA. STILL AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 RISK WHICH KEEPS BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE SOUTH OF CWA
MORE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. BASED ON CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY SEE STRONG STORMS TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO SCNTRL CWA /IMT/MNM/ESC/ LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE MORE WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. ANY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290407
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW.
BY THE TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. ADDED FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SFC WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290407
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW.
BY THE TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. ADDED FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SFC WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290407
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW.
BY THE TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. ADDED FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SFC WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290407
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW.
BY THE TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. ADDED FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SFC WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KDTX 290353
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL CONSTITUTE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT COVERAGE AND DENSITY WILL BE
LIMITED AS SOUTH WIND STRUGGLES TO INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER BASED CU/AC CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST TOWARD SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE THE FIRST SIGN OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL MAINLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT MBS
AND FNT BY MID EVENING.

FOR DTW... THE WIND STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WILL BRING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE INTO THE TERMINAL FROM LAKE
ERIE. THIS ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO MVFR FOG RESTRICTION BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON IFR IN THE FORECAST AND MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
INCREASING WIND SPEED AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT IFR RESTRICTION
THROUGH MID MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT 5000 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND FRIDAY
  TONIGHT.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 290353
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL CONSTITUTE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT COVERAGE AND DENSITY WILL BE
LIMITED AS SOUTH WIND STRUGGLES TO INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER BASED CU/AC CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST TOWARD SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE THE FIRST SIGN OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL MAINLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT MBS
AND FNT BY MID EVENING.

FOR DTW... THE WIND STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WILL BRING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE INTO THE TERMINAL FROM LAKE
ERIE. THIS ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO MVFR FOG RESTRICTION BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON IFR IN THE FORECAST AND MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
INCREASING WIND SPEED AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT IFR RESTRICTION
THROUGH MID MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT 5000 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND FRIDAY
  TONIGHT.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290237
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS THAT TRIED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING OUR 88D
VOID OF RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA...SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S..  THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.

NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY.  NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.  FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.  WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT.  ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.

SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF OUR
STATE. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290237
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS THAT TRIED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING OUR 88D
VOID OF RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA...SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S..  THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.

NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY.  NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.  FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.  WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT.  ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.

SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF OUR
STATE. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290237
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS THAT TRIED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING OUR 88D
VOID OF RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA...SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S..  THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.

NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY.  NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.  FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.  WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT.  ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.

SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF OUR
STATE. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290237
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS THAT TRIED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING OUR 88D
VOID OF RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA...SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S..  THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.

NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY.  NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.  FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.  WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT.  ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.

SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF OUR
STATE. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290119
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
919 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER SCNTRL CANADA WITH EXTENSION OF THAT
TROUGH TO SW OVER THE US ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS NW
ONTARIO. TAIL OF THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS RATHER UNORGANIZED AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MLCAPES
OVER 1000J/KG TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA OVER MOSTLY WEST
UPR MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY
WEAKER LIFT/SHEAR ALOFT...MAYBE UP AROUND 30 KTS. STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG. OVERALL...THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOWER THAN
YDY GIVEN WEAK LIFT/SHEAR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL OCCUR AS WELL
WHICH IF IT OCCURRED OVER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE RIVER BASINS /CRFM4
AND HRVM4/. ONCE THESE SHRA/TSRA RUN THEIR COURSE...EXPECT LULL AS
MAIN FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT LIKELY TURNS TO DENSE FOG NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS FOG OVER LK
MICHIGAN COMES IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUT A DENSE FOG ADVY OUT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE ON LAND WILL MORE PATCHY SO NO
ADVY THERE.

ATTN LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF OK/KS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD UPR LAKES
TOWARD MORNING...09Z-12Z AT THE WI BORDER AND SHORTLY AFT 12Z CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TSRA WILL TIE INTO THESE SHRA AS
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES STAY BLO 500J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
TSRA GOING. LIKELY MORE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY THOUGH AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER
+10C. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS AND ALSO THE CHOCOLAY RIVER BASIN NEAR HARVEY AS RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AS SHOWING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE FOR
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD UP MID-LATE AFTN
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO WORK ON. GIVEN PERSISTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTN...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA. STILL AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 RISK WHICH KEEPS BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE SOUTH OF CWA
MORE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. BASED ON CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY SEE STRONG STORMS TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO SCNTRL CWA /IMT/MNM/ESC/ LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE MORE WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. ANY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

IN GENERAL...THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH MISSED THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT CMX WHICH BRIEFLY SAW A HEAVY TSTM BEFORE 00Z.
LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THIS STORM ALLOWED CMX TO DROP TO VLIFR SOON
AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE BRIEF AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
HELPING TO MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
LOCALIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE U.P. ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ALL
SITES TO DROP TO MVFR FRI MORNING AND PERHAPS LOWERING TO IFR DURING
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ245>247.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290119
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
919 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER SCNTRL CANADA WITH EXTENSION OF THAT
TROUGH TO SW OVER THE US ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS NW
ONTARIO. TAIL OF THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS RATHER UNORGANIZED AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MLCAPES
OVER 1000J/KG TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA OVER MOSTLY WEST
UPR MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY
WEAKER LIFT/SHEAR ALOFT...MAYBE UP AROUND 30 KTS. STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG. OVERALL...THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOWER THAN
YDY GIVEN WEAK LIFT/SHEAR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL OCCUR AS WELL
WHICH IF IT OCCURRED OVER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE RIVER BASINS /CRFM4
AND HRVM4/. ONCE THESE SHRA/TSRA RUN THEIR COURSE...EXPECT LULL AS
MAIN FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT LIKELY TURNS TO DENSE FOG NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS FOG OVER LK
MICHIGAN COMES IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUT A DENSE FOG ADVY OUT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE ON LAND WILL MORE PATCHY SO NO
ADVY THERE.

ATTN LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF OK/KS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD UPR LAKES
TOWARD MORNING...09Z-12Z AT THE WI BORDER AND SHORTLY AFT 12Z CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TSRA WILL TIE INTO THESE SHRA AS
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES STAY BLO 500J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
TSRA GOING. LIKELY MORE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY THOUGH AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER
+10C. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS AND ALSO THE CHOCOLAY RIVER BASIN NEAR HARVEY AS RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AS SHOWING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE FOR
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD UP MID-LATE AFTN
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO WORK ON. GIVEN PERSISTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTN...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA. STILL AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 RISK WHICH KEEPS BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE SOUTH OF CWA
MORE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. BASED ON CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY SEE STRONG STORMS TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO SCNTRL CWA /IMT/MNM/ESC/ LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE MORE WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. ANY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

IN GENERAL...THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH MISSED THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT CMX WHICH BRIEFLY SAW A HEAVY TSTM BEFORE 00Z.
LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THIS STORM ALLOWED CMX TO DROP TO VLIFR SOON
AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE BRIEF AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
HELPING TO MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
LOCALIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE U.P. ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ALL
SITES TO DROP TO MVFR FRI MORNING AND PERHAPS LOWERING TO IFR DURING
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ245>247.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290119
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
919 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER SCNTRL CANADA WITH EXTENSION OF THAT
TROUGH TO SW OVER THE US ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS NW
ONTARIO. TAIL OF THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS RATHER UNORGANIZED AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MLCAPES
OVER 1000J/KG TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA OVER MOSTLY WEST
UPR MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY
WEAKER LIFT/SHEAR ALOFT...MAYBE UP AROUND 30 KTS. STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG. OVERALL...THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOWER THAN
YDY GIVEN WEAK LIFT/SHEAR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL OCCUR AS WELL
WHICH IF IT OCCURRED OVER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE RIVER BASINS /CRFM4
AND HRVM4/. ONCE THESE SHRA/TSRA RUN THEIR COURSE...EXPECT LULL AS
MAIN FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT LIKELY TURNS TO DENSE FOG NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS FOG OVER LK
MICHIGAN COMES IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUT A DENSE FOG ADVY OUT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE ON LAND WILL MORE PATCHY SO NO
ADVY THERE.

ATTN LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF OK/KS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD UPR LAKES
TOWARD MORNING...09Z-12Z AT THE WI BORDER AND SHORTLY AFT 12Z CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TSRA WILL TIE INTO THESE SHRA AS
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES STAY BLO 500J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
TSRA GOING. LIKELY MORE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY THOUGH AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER
+10C. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS AND ALSO THE CHOCOLAY RIVER BASIN NEAR HARVEY AS RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AS SHOWING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE FOR
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD UP MID-LATE AFTN
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO WORK ON. GIVEN PERSISTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTN...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA. STILL AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 RISK WHICH KEEPS BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE SOUTH OF CWA
MORE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. BASED ON CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY SEE STRONG STORMS TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO SCNTRL CWA /IMT/MNM/ESC/ LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE MORE WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. ANY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

IN GENERAL...THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH MISSED THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT CMX WHICH BRIEFLY SAW A HEAVY TSTM BEFORE 00Z.
LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THIS STORM ALLOWED CMX TO DROP TO VLIFR SOON
AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE BRIEF AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
HELPING TO MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
LOCALIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE U.P. ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ALL
SITES TO DROP TO MVFR FRI MORNING AND PERHAPS LOWERING TO IFR DURING
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ245>247.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290119
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
919 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER SCNTRL CANADA WITH EXTENSION OF THAT
TROUGH TO SW OVER THE US ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS NW
ONTARIO. TAIL OF THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS RATHER UNORGANIZED AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MLCAPES
OVER 1000J/KG TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA OVER MOSTLY WEST
UPR MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY
WEAKER LIFT/SHEAR ALOFT...MAYBE UP AROUND 30 KTS. STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG. OVERALL...THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOWER THAN
YDY GIVEN WEAK LIFT/SHEAR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL OCCUR AS WELL
WHICH IF IT OCCURRED OVER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE RIVER BASINS /CRFM4
AND HRVM4/. ONCE THESE SHRA/TSRA RUN THEIR COURSE...EXPECT LULL AS
MAIN FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT LIKELY TURNS TO DENSE FOG NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS FOG OVER LK
MICHIGAN COMES IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUT A DENSE FOG ADVY OUT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE ON LAND WILL MORE PATCHY SO NO
ADVY THERE.

ATTN LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF OK/KS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD UPR LAKES
TOWARD MORNING...09Z-12Z AT THE WI BORDER AND SHORTLY AFT 12Z CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TSRA WILL TIE INTO THESE SHRA AS
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES STAY BLO 500J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
TSRA GOING. LIKELY MORE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY THOUGH AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER
+10C. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS AND ALSO THE CHOCOLAY RIVER BASIN NEAR HARVEY AS RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AS SHOWING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE FOR
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD UP MID-LATE AFTN
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO WORK ON. GIVEN PERSISTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTN...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA. STILL AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 RISK WHICH KEEPS BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE SOUTH OF CWA
MORE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. BASED ON CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY SEE STRONG STORMS TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO SCNTRL CWA /IMT/MNM/ESC/ LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE MORE WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. ANY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

IN GENERAL...THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH MISSED THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT CMX WHICH BRIEFLY SAW A HEAVY TSTM BEFORE 00Z.
LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THIS STORM ALLOWED CMX TO DROP TO VLIFR SOON
AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE BRIEF AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
HELPING TO MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
LOCALIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE U.P. ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ALL
SITES TO DROP TO MVFR FRI MORNING AND PERHAPS LOWERING TO IFR DURING
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ245>247.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290001
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
801 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW.
BY THE TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. ADDED FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE
BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED JUST ABOVE THE
SFC OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 500 AND 5000 FT AGL. SFC WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER MISSOURI APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A
FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS SFC INSTABILITY
INCREASES SO INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS AFTER 21Z WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MKG DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE FLOW OFF LK MI.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 290001
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
801 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW.
BY THE TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. ADDED FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE
BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED JUST ABOVE THE
SFC OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 500 AND 5000 FT AGL. SFC WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER MISSOURI APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A
FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS SFC INSTABILITY
INCREASES SO INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS AFTER 21Z WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MKG DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE FLOW OFF LK MI.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 290001
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
801 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW.
BY THE TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. ADDED FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE
BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED JUST ABOVE THE
SFC OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 500 AND 5000 FT AGL. SFC WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER MISSOURI APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A
FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS SFC INSTABILITY
INCREASES SO INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS AFTER 21Z WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MKG DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE FLOW OFF LK MI.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 290001
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
801 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW.
BY THE TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. ADDED FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE
BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED JUST ABOVE THE
SFC OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 500 AND 5000 FT AGL. SFC WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY TO 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING.

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER MISSOURI APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A
FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS SFC INSTABILITY
INCREASES SO INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS AFTER 21Z WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MKG DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE FLOW OFF LK MI.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KAPX 282319
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S..  THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.

NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY.  NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.  FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.  WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT.  ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.

SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF OUR
STATE. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 282319
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S..  THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.

NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY.  NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.  FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.  WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT.  ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.

SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF OUR
STATE. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KDTX 282318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
718 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MBS AREA WILL LEAVE VFR CLEAR AVIATION
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER BASED CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD SUNRISE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE THE FIRST SIGN OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL MAINLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 282318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
718 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MBS AREA WILL LEAVE VFR CLEAR AVIATION
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER BASED CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD SUNRISE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE THE FIRST SIGN OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL MAINLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 282318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
718 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MBS AREA WILL LEAVE VFR CLEAR AVIATION
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER BASED CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD SUNRISE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE THE FIRST SIGN OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL MAINLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 282052
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
452 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER SCNTRL CANADA WITH EXTENSION OF THAT
TROUGH TO SW OVER THE US ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS NW
ONTARIO. TAIL OF THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS RATHER UNORGANIZED AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MLCAPES
OVER 1000J/KG TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA OVER MOSTLY WEST
UPR MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY
WEAKER LIFT/SHEAR ALOFT...MAYBE UP AROUND 30 KTS. STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG. OVERALL...THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOWER THAN
YDY GIVEN WEAK LIFT/SHEAR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL OCCUR AS WELL
WHICH IF IT OCCURRED OVER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE RIVER BASINS /CRFM4
AND HRVM4/. ONCE THESE SHRA/TSRA RUN THEIR COURSE...EXPECT LULL AS
MAIN FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT LIKELY TURNS TO DENSE FOG NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS FOG OVER LK
MICHIGAN COMES IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUT A DENSE FOG ADVY OUT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE ON LAND WILL MORE PATCHY SO NO
ADVY THERE.

ATTN LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF OK/KS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD UPR LAKES
TOWARD MORNING...09Z-12Z AT THE WI BORDER AND SHORTLY AFT 12Z CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TSRA WILL TIE INTO THESE SHRA AS
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES STAY BLO 500J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
TSRA GOING. LIKELY MORE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY THOUGH AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER
+10C. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS AND ALSO THE CHOCOLAY RIVER BASIN NEAR HARVEY AS RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AS SHOWING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE FOR
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD UP MID-LATE AFTN
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO WORK ON. GIVEN PERSISTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTN...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA. STILL AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 RISK WHICH KEEPS BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE SOUTH OF CWA
MORE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. BASED ON CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY SEE STRONG STORMS TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO SCNTRL CWA /IMT/MNM/ESC/ LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE MORE WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. ANY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA AT KCMX AND VCNTY OF KSAW. LEFT
THUNDER OUT THOUGH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDER COVERAGE. ANY SHRA
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WILL
MOVE BACK OVER ALL TAF SITES ON FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY THIS EVENING WILL SET UP A LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT...SO
HAVE INCLUDED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ245>247.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KDTX 282011 CCA
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 282011 CCA
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KMQT 282011
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER SCNTRL CANADA WITH EXTENSION OF THAT
TROUGH TO SW OVER THE US ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS NW
ONTARIO. TAIL OF THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS RATHER UNORGANIZED AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MLCAPES
OVER 1000J/KG TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA OVER MOSTLY WEST
UPR MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY
WEAKER LIFT/SHEAR ALOFT...MAYBE UP AROUND 30 KTS. STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG. OVERALL...THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOWER THAN
YDY GIVEN WEAK LIFT/SHEAR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL OCCUR AS WELL
WHICH IF IT OCCURRED OVER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE RIVER BASINS /CRFM4
AND HRVM4/. ONCE THESE SHRA/TSRA RUN THEIR COURSE...EXPECT LULL AS
MAIN FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT LIKELY TURNS TO DENSE FOG NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS FOG OVER LK
MICHIGAN COMES IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUT A DENSE FOG ADVY OUT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE ON LAND WILL MORE PATCHY SO NO
ADVY THERE.

ATTN LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF OK/KS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD UPR LAKES
TOWARD MORNING...09Z-12Z AT THE WI BORDER AND SHORTLY AFT 12Z CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TSRA WILL TIE INTO THESE SHRA AS
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES STAY BLO 500J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
TSRA GOING. LIKELY MORE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY THOUGH AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER
+10C. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS AND ALSO THE CHOCOLAY RIVER BASIN NEAR HARVEY AS RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AS SHOWING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE FOR
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD UP MID-LATE AFTN
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO WORK ON. GIVEN PERSISTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTN...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA. STILL AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 RISK WHICH KEEPS BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE SOUTH OF CWA
MORE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. BASED ON CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY SEE STRONG STORMS TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO SCNTRL CWA /IMT/MNM/ESC/ LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE MORE WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. ANY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE TSRA STRENGTH ON FRIDAY
AND MIN TEMPS/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
BROAD TROUGH FM CNTRL CANADA BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MINUS ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HINT OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TIED TO THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF THAT OCCURS...BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH ALOFT DROPS ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
THE MODELS THAT FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WOULD
CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MLCAPES WILL BE AT
LEAST 500J/KG AND MAY BE OVER 1000 J/KG BY TIME FRONT WORKS ACROSS
IN THE AFTN. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER WI...BUT IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 35 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE HELD DOWN IF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT AN ISSUE AS PERSISTENT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BOOSTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR TO
SAY IF THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION ON FRIDAY...THERE WOULD BE
RISK OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN. SPC DAY3 RISK HAS
MARGINAL CATEGORY MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE INTO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE FRONT
HAS EXITED BEFORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ELIMINATED DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING EVEN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH ON EDGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. POPS
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH THIS FROPA.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LEADS TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER MAY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S DESPITE
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. GRADIENT ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP TEMPS THERE IN THE 40S. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PWATS DROPPING
TO 0.25-0.35 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIRMASS POINT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DWPNTS ON
SATURDAY BLO 30F...A FREEZE IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK OF ANY
ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT FAVORS EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR AND MOST OF LK MICHIGAN FOR MIN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 30S WITH STRONG FROST POSSIBILITY. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ON
SOUTHERLY EDGE OF SFC HIGH COULD KEEP BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORE IN FAR
SCNTRL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FOR
SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INLAND TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES WHICH
IS OVER 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S OR 50S. WENT ON LOW SIDE FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INCLUDED FROST MENTION AGAIN. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
INDICATED MINS BACK TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERS...ESPECIALLY CNTRAL AND EAST.

REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC PUTTING PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITHIN RETURN FLOW. H85 TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY RISE
TO 14C...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION H85-H7. PROBABLY NOT MUCH RISK OF
SHRA THOUGH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. MAYBE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HEADS ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY STAY WEST YET CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS SYSTEM DOES NOT SPEED
UP TO THE EAST...GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA AT KCMX AND VCNTY OF KSAW. LEFT
THUNDER OUT THOUGH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDER COVERAGE. ANY SHRA
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WILL
MOVE BACK OVER ALL TAF SITES ON FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY THIS EVENING WILL SET UP A LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT...SO
HAVE INCLUDED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ245>247.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 282011
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER SCNTRL CANADA WITH EXTENSION OF THAT
TROUGH TO SW OVER THE US ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS NW
ONTARIO. TAIL OF THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS RATHER UNORGANIZED AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MLCAPES
OVER 1000J/KG TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA OVER MOSTLY WEST
UPR MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY
WEAKER LIFT/SHEAR ALOFT...MAYBE UP AROUND 30 KTS. STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG. OVERALL...THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOWER THAN
YDY GIVEN WEAK LIFT/SHEAR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL OCCUR AS WELL
WHICH IF IT OCCURRED OVER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE RIVER BASINS /CRFM4
AND HRVM4/. ONCE THESE SHRA/TSRA RUN THEIR COURSE...EXPECT LULL AS
MAIN FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT LIKELY TURNS TO DENSE FOG NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS FOG OVER LK
MICHIGAN COMES IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUT A DENSE FOG ADVY OUT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE ON LAND WILL MORE PATCHY SO NO
ADVY THERE.

ATTN LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF OK/KS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD UPR LAKES
TOWARD MORNING...09Z-12Z AT THE WI BORDER AND SHORTLY AFT 12Z CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TSRA WILL TIE INTO THESE SHRA AS
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES STAY BLO 500J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
TSRA GOING. LIKELY MORE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY THOUGH AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER
+10C. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS AND ALSO THE CHOCOLAY RIVER BASIN NEAR HARVEY AS RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AS SHOWING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE FOR
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD UP MID-LATE AFTN
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO WORK ON. GIVEN PERSISTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTN...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA. STILL AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 RISK WHICH KEEPS BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE SOUTH OF CWA
MORE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. BASED ON CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY SEE STRONG STORMS TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO SCNTRL CWA /IMT/MNM/ESC/ LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE MORE WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. ANY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE TSRA STRENGTH ON FRIDAY
AND MIN TEMPS/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
BROAD TROUGH FM CNTRL CANADA BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MINUS ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HINT OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TIED TO THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF THAT OCCURS...BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH ALOFT DROPS ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
THE MODELS THAT FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WOULD
CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MLCAPES WILL BE AT
LEAST 500J/KG AND MAY BE OVER 1000 J/KG BY TIME FRONT WORKS ACROSS
IN THE AFTN. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER WI...BUT IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 35 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE HELD DOWN IF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT AN ISSUE AS PERSISTENT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BOOSTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR TO
SAY IF THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION ON FRIDAY...THERE WOULD BE
RISK OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN. SPC DAY3 RISK HAS
MARGINAL CATEGORY MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE INTO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE FRONT
HAS EXITED BEFORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ELIMINATED DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING EVEN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH ON EDGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. POPS
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH THIS FROPA.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LEADS TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER MAY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S DESPITE
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. GRADIENT ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP TEMPS THERE IN THE 40S. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PWATS DROPPING
TO 0.25-0.35 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIRMASS POINT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DWPNTS ON
SATURDAY BLO 30F...A FREEZE IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK OF ANY
ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT FAVORS EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR AND MOST OF LK MICHIGAN FOR MIN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 30S WITH STRONG FROST POSSIBILITY. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ON
SOUTHERLY EDGE OF SFC HIGH COULD KEEP BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORE IN FAR
SCNTRL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FOR
SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INLAND TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES WHICH
IS OVER 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S OR 50S. WENT ON LOW SIDE FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INCLUDED FROST MENTION AGAIN. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
INDICATED MINS BACK TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERS...ESPECIALLY CNTRAL AND EAST.

REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC PUTTING PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITHIN RETURN FLOW. H85 TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY RISE
TO 14C...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION H85-H7. PROBABLY NOT MUCH RISK OF
SHRA THOUGH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. MAYBE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HEADS ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY STAY WEST YET CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS SYSTEM DOES NOT SPEED
UP TO THE EAST...GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA AT KCMX AND VCNTY OF KSAW. LEFT
THUNDER OUT THOUGH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDER COVERAGE. ANY SHRA
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WILL
MOVE BACK OVER ALL TAF SITES ON FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY THIS EVENING WILL SET UP A LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT...SO
HAVE INCLUDED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ245>247.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA



000
FXUS63 KAPX 281958
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S..  THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.

NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY.  NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.  FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.  WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT.  ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.

SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...STILL MONITORING FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

VFR CU FIELD STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE FAR FROM HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF
SITES. "BEST" POTENTIAL EXPECTED AT KAPN AFTER MID
AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN HERE CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW. STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IF THEY OCCUR.
ANY SHOWERS END THIS EVENING...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOW LEVEL JET PRODUCES MARGINAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING UNDER VFR HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. ONCE AGAIN MAY
SEE A FEW VIGOROUS CU PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFTER MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 281958
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S..  THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.

NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY.  NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.  FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.  WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT.  ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.

SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...STILL MONITORING FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

VFR CU FIELD STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE FAR FROM HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF
SITES. "BEST" POTENTIAL EXPECTED AT KAPN AFTER MID
AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN HERE CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW. STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IF THEY OCCUR.
ANY SHOWERS END THIS EVENING...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOW LEVEL JET PRODUCES MARGINAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING UNDER VFR HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. ONCE AGAIN MAY
SEE A FEW VIGOROUS CU PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFTER MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KDTX 281935
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN TO POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 281935
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN TO POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 281935
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN TO POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 281935
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN TO POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 281927
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW.
BY THE TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. ADDED FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHALLOW FOG AT AZO AND JXN AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THIS WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AOB
10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO AOA 10
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281927
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW.
BY THE TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. ADDED FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHALLOW FOG AT AZO AND JXN AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THIS WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AOB
10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO AOA 10
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 281912
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY MORNING
NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW. BY THE
TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM NEAR THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. ADDED
FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHALLOW FOG AT AZO AND JXN AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THIS WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AOB
10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO AOA 10
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 281912
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY MORNING
NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW. BY THE
TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM NEAR THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. ADDED
FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHALLOW FOG AT AZO AND JXN AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THIS WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AOB
10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO AOA 10
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 281912
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY MORNING
NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW. BY THE
TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM NEAR THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. ADDED
FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHALLOW FOG AT AZO AND JXN AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THIS WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AOB
10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO AOA 10
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KGRR 281912
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN SOME FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS
IOWA AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE DRIER ECMWF
MAY BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE WETTER GFS. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES FRIDAY MORNING
NORTH OF MUSKEGON ARE 30+ KTS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LOW. BY THE
TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SHEAR
DECREASES A BIT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM NEAR THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. ADDED
FROST TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A COOL SFC HIGH WILL HOLD SWAY
AT THE START WITH FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVES EAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHALLOW FOG AT AZO AND JXN AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THIS WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AOB
10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO AOA 10
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...04



000
FXUS63 KMQT 281749
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN AND TIME PUT INTO DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THUNDERSTORM (POTENTIALLY STRONG) CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A FRONT IS STALLED JUST S OF THE CWA OR OVER THE SRN CWA. E WIND ON
THE N SIDE OF THE FRONT HAVE PULLED MOISTURE FROM ONTARIO INTO NRN
UPPER MI. AS FAR AS CAN BE SEEN IN WEBCAM IMAGERY AND WITH
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...THE MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN A LOW STRATUS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...AND IS A DENSE FOG
FARTHER INLAND. FOG APPEARS TO BE MOST DENSE OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI
FROM THE NRN HURON MOUNTAIN TO WFO MQT TO KSAW WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ENHANCING THE FOG SOME. THE ESCANABA AREA IS ALSO SEEING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT TIMES...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MORE SPORADIC.
MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HANDLED THE FOG DEVELOPMENT WELL...AND
THEY SHOW DISSIPATION STARTING AFTER 8PM...WITH SIGNIFICANT VIS
IMPROVEMENT BY 9PM. EXPECT MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.

MOVING ON TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THAT STALLED FRONT IS
GOING TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CERTAINLY SEE WARMER AIR MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS
INCREASING FROM 12C THIS MORNING TO 15C THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE
WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE DECENT AT 30-35
KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS IN SOME OF THE CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WHICH COULD IMPROVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO STORMS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR LARGER HAIL. AS FOR
FORCING FOR CONVECTION...MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER
WRN UPPER MI DURING PEAK HEATING. ENOUGH OF THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY
HIGH-RES) WERE SHOWING CONVECTION TO BOOST CONFIDENCE OF
DEVELOPMENT. MORE IN QUESTION IS COVERAGE AND ESPECIALLY STRENGTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE TSRA STRENGTH ON FRIDAY
AND MIN TEMPS/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
BROAD TROUGH FM CNTRL CANADA BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MINUS ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HINT OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TIED TO THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF THAT OCCURS...BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH ALOFT DROPS ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
THE MODELS THAT FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WOULD
CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MLCAPES WILL BE AT
LEAST 500J/KG AND MAY BE OVER 1000 J/KG BY TIME FRONT WORKS ACROSS
IN THE AFTN. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER WI...BUT IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 35 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE HELD DOWN IF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT AN ISSUE AS PERSISTENT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BOOSTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR TO
SAY IF THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION ON FRIDAY...THERE WOULD BE
RISK OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN. SPC DAY3 RISK HAS
MARGINAL CATEGORY MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE INTO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE FRONT
HAS EXITED BEFORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ELIMINATED DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING EVEN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH ON EDGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. POPS
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH THIS FROPA.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LEADS TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER MAY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S DESPITE
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. GRADIENT ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP TEMPS THERE IN THE 40S. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PWATS DROPPING
TO 0.25-0.35 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIRMASS POINT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DWPNTS ON
SATURDAY BLO 30F...A FREEZE IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK OF ANY
ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT FAVORS EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR AND MOST OF LK MICHIGAN FOR MIN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 30S WITH STRONG FROST POSSIBILITY. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ON
SOUTHERLY EDGE OF SFC HIGH COULD KEEP BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORE IN FAR
SCNTRL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FOR
SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INLAND TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES WHICH
IS OVER 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S OR 50S. WENT ON LOW SIDE FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INCLUDED FROST MENTION AGAIN. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
INDICATED MINS BACK TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERS...ESPECIALLY CNTRAL AND EAST.

REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC PUTTING PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITHIN RETURN FLOW. H85 TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY RISE
TO 14C...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION H85-H7. PROBABLY NOT MUCH RISK OF
SHRA THOUGH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. MAYBE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HEADS ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY STAY WEST YET CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS SYSTEM DOES NOT SPEED
UP TO THE EAST...GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA AT KCMX AND VCNTY OF KSAW. LEFT
THUNDER OUT THOUGH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDER COVERAGE. ANY SHRA
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WILL
MOVE BACK OVER ALL TAF SITES ON FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY THIS EVENING WILL SET UP A LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT...SO
HAVE INCLUDED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER
THROUGH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 281749
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN AND TIME PUT INTO DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THUNDERSTORM (POTENTIALLY STRONG) CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A FRONT IS STALLED JUST S OF THE CWA OR OVER THE SRN CWA. E WIND ON
THE N SIDE OF THE FRONT HAVE PULLED MOISTURE FROM ONTARIO INTO NRN
UPPER MI. AS FAR AS CAN BE SEEN IN WEBCAM IMAGERY AND WITH
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...THE MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN A LOW STRATUS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...AND IS A DENSE FOG
FARTHER INLAND. FOG APPEARS TO BE MOST DENSE OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI
FROM THE NRN HURON MOUNTAIN TO WFO MQT TO KSAW WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ENHANCING THE FOG SOME. THE ESCANABA AREA IS ALSO SEEING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT TIMES...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MORE SPORADIC.
MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HANDLED THE FOG DEVELOPMENT WELL...AND
THEY SHOW DISSIPATION STARTING AFTER 8PM...WITH SIGNIFICANT VIS
IMPROVEMENT BY 9PM. EXPECT MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.

MOVING ON TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THAT STALLED FRONT IS
GOING TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CERTAINLY SEE WARMER AIR MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS
INCREASING FROM 12C THIS MORNING TO 15C THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE
WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE DECENT AT 30-35
KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS IN SOME OF THE CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WHICH COULD IMPROVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO STORMS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR LARGER HAIL. AS FOR
FORCING FOR CONVECTION...MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER
WRN UPPER MI DURING PEAK HEATING. ENOUGH OF THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY
HIGH-RES) WERE SHOWING CONVECTION TO BOOST CONFIDENCE OF
DEVELOPMENT. MORE IN QUESTION IS COVERAGE AND ESPECIALLY STRENGTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE TSRA STRENGTH ON FRIDAY
AND MIN TEMPS/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
BROAD TROUGH FM CNTRL CANADA BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MINUS ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HINT OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TIED TO THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF THAT OCCURS...BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH ALOFT DROPS ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
THE MODELS THAT FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WOULD
CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MLCAPES WILL BE AT
LEAST 500J/KG AND MAY BE OVER 1000 J/KG BY TIME FRONT WORKS ACROSS
IN THE AFTN. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER WI...BUT IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 35 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE HELD DOWN IF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT AN ISSUE AS PERSISTENT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BOOSTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR TO
SAY IF THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION ON FRIDAY...THERE WOULD BE
RISK OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN. SPC DAY3 RISK HAS
MARGINAL CATEGORY MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE INTO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE FRONT
HAS EXITED BEFORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ELIMINATED DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING EVEN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH ON EDGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. POPS
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH THIS FROPA.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LEADS TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER MAY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S DESPITE
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. GRADIENT ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP TEMPS THERE IN THE 40S. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PWATS DROPPING
TO 0.25-0.35 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIRMASS POINT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DWPNTS ON
SATURDAY BLO 30F...A FREEZE IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK OF ANY
ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT FAVORS EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR AND MOST OF LK MICHIGAN FOR MIN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 30S WITH STRONG FROST POSSIBILITY. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ON
SOUTHERLY EDGE OF SFC HIGH COULD KEEP BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORE IN FAR
SCNTRL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FOR
SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INLAND TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES WHICH
IS OVER 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S OR 50S. WENT ON LOW SIDE FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INCLUDED FROST MENTION AGAIN. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
INDICATED MINS BACK TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERS...ESPECIALLY CNTRAL AND EAST.

REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC PUTTING PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITHIN RETURN FLOW. H85 TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY RISE
TO 14C...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION H85-H7. PROBABLY NOT MUCH RISK OF
SHRA THOUGH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. MAYBE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HEADS ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY STAY WEST YET CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS SYSTEM DOES NOT SPEED
UP TO THE EAST...GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA AT KCMX AND VCNTY OF KSAW. LEFT
THUNDER OUT THOUGH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDER COVERAGE. ANY SHRA
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WILL
MOVE BACK OVER ALL TAF SITES ON FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY THIS EVENING WILL SET UP A LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT...SO
HAVE INCLUDED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER
THROUGH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KAPX 281739
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
139 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUN-FILLED SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND NICELY
THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
70S AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS
REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...LARGELY HINGING ON HOW
DEW POINTS RESPOND. MOST HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT KICKS OFF CONVECTION
SIMPLY HAS UNREALISTICALLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...WITH THE
NAM-WRF MID 60 DEW POINTS (SIMPLY UNATTAINABLE) LEADING THE CHARGE.
MODIFYING 12Z LOCAL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO
THE LOWER/MID 50S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ASSUMED STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL CAPPING VIA BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...SUPPORTS UPWARDS
OF SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF ML CAPE...ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING
CINH. SYNOPTIC WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING FORCED LAKE HURON INDUCED CONVERGENCE INTO
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR HIGHLANDS. THIS MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME OTHER DEFICIENCIES...ALLOWING SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DICTATING FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS IDEA...WITH FEW CHANGES NEEDED. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MIXING/DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT WOULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...LAKE BREEZES AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE EXPECTATIONS FROM
24 HRS AGO. AN ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AXIS
ALOFT HAS SLIPPED INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED DUE TO
EARLIER LAKE BREEZES FROM CENTRAL UPPER AND NE WISCONSIN...AND LIGHT
WINDS FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAD
FIRED OFF IN THESE AREAS...AND THE MEAN STORM LAYER FLOW WAS
DIRECTING THEM TOWARD NW LOWER...GENERALLY LEELANAU COUNTY AND AREAS
SOUTH. THERE WAS AN IDENTIFIABLE VERY WEAK VORT MAX THAT MAY HAVE
BEEN HELPING SUSTAIN THESE STORMS...BUT THIS WAS GETTING WASHED OUT
DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHT RISES. PLUS...WANING DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND STORMS MOVING INTO LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE PROVED
EFFICIENT AT ALLOWING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO DWINDLE AND
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES WERE GRADUALLY BECOMING
CLEARER...AND TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING INTO/THROUGH THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FEEL AS IF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LONG GONE AND ERODED
BY DAYBREAK....AND THE DAY STARTS OFF RELATIVELY CLEAR. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST HEADING THROUGH THE DAY WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING BRINING LAKE BREEZES WITH THE MAXIMIZED WIND
CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...EXTENDING WESTWARD
BACK OVER TO ROUGHLY US 131...OR SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S IN NRN LOWER WITH SFC TD`S
MIXING OUT TO 53F-55F RESULTS IN 1000-1200 J/KG. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE OFF IN THE LOW LEVEL LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...AND THEN CONGEAL MORE SO INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
INLAND NRN LOWER UNDER THE GUN FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE...AS
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IN THE 0-10KM LAYER IS ROUGHLY 10KTS...THUS
SLOW MOVING CELLS ARE EXPECTED...DRIFTING NE. SOME OF THESE NE
MOVING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PENETRATE FAR NRN LAKE HURON AND
POSSIBLY EVEN DRUMMOND ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING. NOWHERE ELSE IN
EASTERN UPPER IS EXPECTED TO SEE STORMS...AS THERE THE SE WIND IS
RATHER UNFAVORABLE...AND TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
NIGHTFALL. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FCST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW PRETTY DEEP DRYING.

SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO HAVE A
WATCHFUL EYE ON STRONGER CELLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE BIGGEST
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST
A SMALL RISK FOR SOME OF THOSE TO BECOME SEVERE.

WELL...BACK WE GO INTO AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME TO WRAP UP THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE THINGS REALLY CALM DOWN (AND COOL DOWN!) INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SHARP
UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING THROUGH MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DRIVE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ARRIVING IN THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY IN QUESTION...THOUGH THE OVERALL
TREND OF LATE IS FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN...
SUGGESTING WE MAY HAVE A DECENT SHOT TO REALLY HEAT UP AND MOISTEN
UP PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WHILE UPPER FORCING COULD BE BETTER (THE MAJORITY OF BEST QG UPWARD
SUPPORT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH)...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF A
BAND OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING IN OUR DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING.
IN ADDITION...TURNING OF THE WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE USUAL SUSPECT
SPOTS AS A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT GETS STUCK NEAR THE STRAITS SUGGESTS WE
MAY SEE A BIT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AS WELL WHERE WE MAY LOCALLY
BREAK INITIAL CAPPING. INSTABILITY ON PAPER AT LEAST LOOKS RATHER
DECENT...WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOW (MID?) 80S
PENDING NO CLOUD ISSUES WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SNEAK BACK
THROUGH THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S BASED ON UPSTREAM
READINGS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK BETTER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...
WITH FORECAST RAOBS HINTING AT UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. THROW IN
THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AN
UPTICK IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR TOWARD 30-35 KNOTS AND THE STAGE IS SET
FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TO
A LESSER DEGREE HAIL...THOUGH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS IN EXCESS OF
12KFT ARGUE THAT THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
CERTAINLY A PERIOD TO WATCH.

WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD END LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...
PERSISTENT STRONG AND DEEPER LAYER FRONTOGENESIS LAYING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WELL-MODELED SECONDARY TROUGH
AXIS STRONGLY SUGGESTS A BAND OF RAIN TRAVERSING THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. EXACT ENDING TIME OF THIS PRECIP BAND
REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...BUT MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IT WILL
INCREASINGLY BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRYING WORK IN FROM ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. THAT SHOULD
(THEORETICALLY) LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS JUST PLAIN CLEAR BY EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT OF FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK AND A
DECENT GRADIENT TO THEORETICALLY PREVENT WIDESPREAD COLD TEMPS/
FROST...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WILL CONTINUE A FROST MENTION JUST IN CASE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS
DECIDE TO DECOUPLE...BUT REALLY THINK THE BETTER RISK COMES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS AROUND THESE PARTS AS WE WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND AND WELCOME THE NEW WORK WEEK...COURTESY OF ROBUST LOW LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO GO AROUND DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
DOWNRIGHT COMFORTABLE WEATHER ON TAP AS WE END THE MONTH OF MAY AND
ENTER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE. SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER BUT LOW
HUMIDITY AFTERNOONS AND SOME QUITE CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS. BASED ON
THE PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HANGING OVERHEAD RIGHT ON
THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH A FROST THREAT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN A
VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH COULD ALSO ENVISION ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FROST MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MAYBE JUST MAYBE
WE CAN MUSTER SOME BETTER RETURN FLOW TOWARD WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW
END THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO MAKE A RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...STILL MONITORING FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

VFR CU FIELD STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE FAR FROM HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF
SITES. "BEST" POTENTIAL EXPECTED AT KAPN AFTER MID
AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN HERE CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW. STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IF THEY OCCUR.
ANY SHOWERS END THIS EVENING...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOW LEVEL JET PRODUCES MARGINAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING UNDER VFR HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. ONCE AGAIN MAY
SEE A FEW VIGOROUS CU PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFTER MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING IN OVERHEAD...BUT WILL EXIT EAST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL TURN
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
LIFT INTO FAR NRN LAKE HURON LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE WANING. WINDS INCREASE ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE SFC LATE
TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND IT COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY...BUT
WITH IT`S PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ADVISORIES
WILL BE THEN...SATURDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY MAYBE AS
WELL...AS OVERLAKE STABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KDTX 281736
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWERLY FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY. MIXING DEPTHS WILL APPROACH 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER MAY ONLY REACH 15-
20 KNOTS WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTS MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL SUN AND WARMTH THOUGH AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO INITIATE OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN ADDITION TO FORECAST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HOLD
AS ONE HEADS SOUTH BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SFC
TROUGH...SOME ACTIVITY COULD LEAK SOUTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION. THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY THUS JUST WENT WITH 20 POPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC RIDGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL ALLOW
A DECENT BIT OF COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING SFC MOISTURE ELEVATED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS TO BE TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY FOG. ANYTHING THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

LONG TERM...

STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS HAS BEEN CALLING FOR A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING TO GENERATE THE STOUT LOW TO
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS. THAT IS...THE IDAHO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
WORK UNDER THEN BE KICKED AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE PERFECT FOR WEAK
JET ENERGY ATTENDANT TO THE PLAINS CIRCULATION TO CREATE A PSEUDO
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL THEN AID A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN
ORGANIZING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
THEN BE DRIVEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE AREA OF 1000-500MB
HEIGHT RISES.

FRIDAY...HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE BIG QUESTION. LATEST
MODEL DATA...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
COVERAGE OF QPF FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY HERE WITH THE LACK OF CAPPING. WITH THE LOW
TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...AND COMPLETE LACK OF
JET ENERGY ALOFT OVERHEAD STILL DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY. TOTAL LACK OF WIND IN THE COLUMN SUPPORTS A PULSE
TYPE STORM BEHAVIOR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION.

THE DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 28.00Z SUITE WAS TO DISSIPATE THE FIRST
AXIS OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING THE DOMINANT 850-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T FEEL THIS IS A
HUGE DEAL...BUT IT DOES POSSIBLY SIGNIFY THAT MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DIALED IN ON SOME LARGE SCALE GOVERNING DYNAMICS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DEPICT A VERY GOOD FRONTAL SUPPORT WITH UPRIGHT
ASCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A TOTAL VOID OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RATHER...MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORECAST PWATS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MARINE...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF WINDSPEEDS
RANGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 281736
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWERLY FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY. MIXING DEPTHS WILL APPROACH 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER MAY ONLY REACH 15-
20 KNOTS WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTS MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL SUN AND WARMTH THOUGH AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO INITIATE OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN ADDITION TO FORECAST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HOLD
AS ONE HEADS SOUTH BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SFC
TROUGH...SOME ACTIVITY COULD LEAK SOUTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION. THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY THUS JUST WENT WITH 20 POPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC RIDGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL ALLOW
A DECENT BIT OF COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING SFC MOISTURE ELEVATED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS TO BE TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY FOG. ANYTHING THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

LONG TERM...

STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS HAS BEEN CALLING FOR A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING TO GENERATE THE STOUT LOW TO
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS. THAT IS...THE IDAHO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
WORK UNDER THEN BE KICKED AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE PERFECT FOR WEAK
JET ENERGY ATTENDANT TO THE PLAINS CIRCULATION TO CREATE A PSEUDO
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL THEN AID A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN
ORGANIZING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
THEN BE DRIVEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE AREA OF 1000-500MB
HEIGHT RISES.

FRIDAY...HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE BIG QUESTION. LATEST
MODEL DATA...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
COVERAGE OF QPF FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY HERE WITH THE LACK OF CAPPING. WITH THE LOW
TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...AND COMPLETE LACK OF
JET ENERGY ALOFT OVERHEAD STILL DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY. TOTAL LACK OF WIND IN THE COLUMN SUPPORTS A PULSE
TYPE STORM BEHAVIOR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION.

THE DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 28.00Z SUITE WAS TO DISSIPATE THE FIRST
AXIS OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING THE DOMINANT 850-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T FEEL THIS IS A
HUGE DEAL...BUT IT DOES POSSIBLY SIGNIFY THAT MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DIALED IN ON SOME LARGE SCALE GOVERNING DYNAMICS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DEPICT A VERY GOOD FRONTAL SUPPORT WITH UPRIGHT
ASCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A TOTAL VOID OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RATHER...MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORECAST PWATS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MARINE...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF WINDSPEEDS
RANGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
130 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY KEEPING THE WEATHER
MAINLY DRY AND WARM. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP AND
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TO START...IT LOOKS LIKE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ON THE LAKE BREEZE. IT BECOMES
UNSTABLE AND THE INCREASED CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN. THUS I ADDED A MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST.
UPON SUNSET...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE. EASTERLY FLOW
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS SHOULD SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED AS A RESULT WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
80S LIKELY.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COVERAGE ON FRIDAY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO A
DELAY IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER AS THE DAY
EVOLVES WE SHOULD SEE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE WHICH
SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. BY THE
END OF THE DAY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING. THUS DURING
THE EVENING RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY IN PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AND
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ANY STORMS THAT DO TRY TO BECOME SEVERE SHOULD BE
PULSE IN NATURE. BY SATURDAY MORNING STRONGER SHEAR MOVES IN WITH
THE FRONT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. LOCALLY OVER AN INCH OF RAIN SHOULD FALL
IN A FEW LOCATIONS. I DID FEATURE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST
TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S.
HOWEVER EASTERLY WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO INHIBIT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY POTENTIALLY COULD.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN FAIR AND COOL WEATHER.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY ACROSS OUR FAR NNE FCST AREA.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHALLOW FOG AT AZO AND JXN AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THIS WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AOB
10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO AOA 10
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEEK TODAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AROUND LITTLE AND BIG SABLE
POINTS. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WAVES BUILD CONSIDERABLY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
130 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY KEEPING THE WEATHER
MAINLY DRY AND WARM. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP AND
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TO START...IT LOOKS LIKE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ON THE LAKE BREEZE. IT BECOMES
UNSTABLE AND THE INCREASED CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN. THUS I ADDED A MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST.
UPON SUNSET...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE. EASTERLY FLOW
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS SHOULD SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED AS A RESULT WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
80S LIKELY.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COVERAGE ON FRIDAY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO A
DELAY IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER AS THE DAY
EVOLVES WE SHOULD SEE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE WHICH
SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. BY THE
END OF THE DAY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING. THUS DURING
THE EVENING RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY IN PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AND
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ANY STORMS THAT DO TRY TO BECOME SEVERE SHOULD BE
PULSE IN NATURE. BY SATURDAY MORNING STRONGER SHEAR MOVES IN WITH
THE FRONT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. LOCALLY OVER AN INCH OF RAIN SHOULD FALL
IN A FEW LOCATIONS. I DID FEATURE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST
TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S.
HOWEVER EASTERLY WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO INHIBIT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY POTENTIALLY COULD.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN FAIR AND COOL WEATHER.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY ACROSS OUR FAR NNE FCST AREA.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHALLOW FOG AT AZO AND JXN AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THIS WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AOB
10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO AOA 10
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEEK TODAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AROUND LITTLE AND BIG SABLE
POINTS. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WAVES BUILD CONSIDERABLY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 281620
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY KEEPING THE WEATHER
MAINLY DRY AND WARM. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP AND
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TO START...IT LOOKS LIKE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ON THE LAKE BREEZE. IT BECOMES
UNSTABLE AND THE INCREASED CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN. THUS I ADDED A MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST.
UPON SUNSET...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE. EASTERLY FLOW
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS SHOULD SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED AS A RESULT WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
80S LIKELY.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COVERAGE ON FRIDAY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO A
DELAY IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER AS THE DAY
EVOLVES WE SHOULD SEE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE WHICH
SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. BY THE
END OF THE DAY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING. THUS DURING
THE EVENING RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY IN PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AND
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ANY STORMS THAT DO TRY TO BECOME SEVERE SHOULD BE
PULSE IN NATURE. BY SATURDAY MORNING STRONGER SHEAR MOVES IN WITH
THE FRONT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. LOCALLY OVER AN INCH OF RAIN SHOULD FALL
IN A FEW LOCATIONS. I DID FEATURE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST
TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S.
HOWEVER EASTERLY WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO INHIBIT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY POTENTIALLY COULD.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN FAIR AND COOL WEATHER.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY ACROSS OUR FAR NNE FCST AREA.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG AROUND TO START THE PERIOD...BUT THAT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 13Z. CURRENTLY FORECAST SITES ARE NOT IMPACTED BY THE
FOG. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT SHOULD TOUCH OFF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. KGRR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST PRONE AND FOR NOW I ADDED VCSH FOR A 1 HR WINDOW AROUND 18Z.
FORECAST TRENDS SUGGEST THE MAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRI...THUS TAFS ARE DRY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEEK TODAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AROUND LITTLE AND BIG SABLE
POINTS. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WAVES BUILD CONSIDERABLY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TOTAL QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. GIVEN THAT BASE FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE KALAMAZOO BASIN...WE EXPECT MODEST
RISES WITH SOME SITES PERHAPS REACHING BANKFULL BUT NOTHING OF
GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LEVELS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KAPX 281413
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1013 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUN-FILLED SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND NICELY
THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
70S AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS
REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...LARGELY HINGING ON HOW
DEW POINTS RESPOND. MOST HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT KICKS OFF CONVECTION
SIMPLY HAS UNREALISTICALLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...WITH THE
NAM-WRF MID 60 DEW POINTS (SIMPLY UNATTAINABLE) LEADING THE CHARGE.
MODIFYING 12Z LOCAL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO
THE LOWER/MID 50S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ASSUMED STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL CAPPING VIA BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...SUPPORTS UPWARDS
OF SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF ML CAPE...ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING
CINH. SYNOPTIC WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING FORCED LAKE HURON INDUCED CONVERGENCE INTO
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR HIGHLANDS. THIS MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME OTHER DEFICIENCIES...ALLOWING SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DICTATING FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS IDEA...WITH FEW CHANGES NEEDED. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MIXING/DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT WOULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...LAKE BREEZES AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE EXPECTATIONS FROM
24 HRS AGO. AN ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AXIS
ALOFT HAS SLIPPED INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED DUE TO
EARLIER LAKE BREEZES FROM CENTRAL UPPER AND NE WISCONSIN...AND LIGHT
WINDS FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAD
FIRED OFF IN THESE AREAS...AND THE MEAN STORM LAYER FLOW WAS
DIRECTING THEM TOWARD NW LOWER...GENERALLY LEELANAU COUNTY AND AREAS
SOUTH. THERE WAS AN IDENTIFIABLE VERY WEAK VORT MAX THAT MAY HAVE
BEEN HELPING SUSTAIN THESE STORMS...BUT THIS WAS GETTING WASHED OUT
DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHT RISES. PLUS...WANING DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND STORMS MOVING INTO LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE PROVED
EFFICIENT AT ALLOWING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO DWINDLE AND
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES WERE GRADUALLY BECOMING
CLEARER...AND TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING INTO/THROUGH THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FEEL AS IF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LONG GONE AND ERODED
BY DAYBREAK....AND THE DAY STARTS OFF RELATIVELY CLEAR. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST HEADING THROUGH THE DAY WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING BRINING LAKE BREEZES WITH THE MAXIMIZED WIND
CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...EXTENDING WESTWARD
BACK OVER TO ROUGHLY US 131...OR SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S IN NRN LOWER WITH SFC TD`S
MIXING OUT TO 53F-55F RESULTS IN 1000-1200 J/KG. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE OFF IN THE LOW LEVEL LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...AND THEN CONGEAL MORE SO INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
INLAND NRN LOWER UNDER THE GUN FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE...AS
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IN THE 0-10KM LAYER IS ROUGHLY 10KTS...THUS
SLOW MOVING CELLS ARE EXPECTED...DRIFTING NE. SOME OF THESE NE
MOVING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PENETRATE FAR NRN LAKE HURON AND
POSSIBLY EVEN DRUMMOND ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING. NOWHERE ELSE IN
EASTERN UPPER IS EXPECTED TO SEE STORMS...AS THERE THE SE WIND IS
RATHER UNFAVORABLE...AND TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
NIGHTFALL. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FCST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW PRETTY DEEP DRYING.

SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO HAVE A
WATCHFUL EYE ON STRONGER CELLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE BIGGEST
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST
A SMALL RISK FOR SOME OF THOSE TO BECOME SEVERE.

WELL...BACK WE GO INTO AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME TO WRAP UP THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE THINGS REALLY CALM DOWN (AND COOL DOWN!) INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SHARP
UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING THROUGH MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DRIVE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ARRIVING IN THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY IN QUESTION...THOUGH THE OVERALL
TREND OF LATE IS FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN...
SUGGESTING WE MAY HAVE A DECENT SHOT TO REALLY HEAT UP AND MOISTEN
UP PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WHILE UPPER FORCING COULD BE BETTER (THE MAJORITY OF BEST QG UPWARD
SUPPORT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH)...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF A
BAND OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING IN OUR DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING.
IN ADDITION...TURNING OF THE WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE USUAL SUSPECT
SPOTS AS A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT GETS STUCK NEAR THE STRAITS SUGGESTS WE
MAY SEE A BIT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AS WELL WHERE WE MAY LOCALLY
BREAK INITIAL CAPPING. INSTABILITY ON PAPER AT LEAST LOOKS RATHER
DECENT...WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOW (MID?) 80S
PENDING NO CLOUD ISSUES WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SNEAK BACK
THROUGH THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S BASED ON UPSTREAM
READINGS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK BETTER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...
WITH FORECAST RAOBS HINTING AT UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. THROW IN
THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AN
UPTICK IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR TOWARD 30-35 KNOTS AND THE STAGE IS SET
FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TO
A LESSER DEGREE HAIL...THOUGH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS IN EXCESS OF
12KFT ARGUE THAT THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
CERTAINLY A PERIOD TO WATCH.

WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD END LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...
PERSISTENT STRONG AND DEEPER LAYER FRONTOGENESIS LAYING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WELL-MODELED SECONDARY TROUGH
AXIS STRONGLY SUGGESTS A BAND OF RAIN TRAVERSING THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. EXACT ENDING TIME OF THIS PRECIP BAND
REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...BUT MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IT WILL
INCREASINGLY BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRYING WORK IN FROM ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. THAT SHOULD
(THEORETICALLY) LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS JUST PLAIN CLEAR BY EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT OF FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK AND A
DECENT GRADIENT TO THEORETICALLY PREVENT WIDESPREAD COLD TEMPS/
FROST...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WILL CONTINUE A FROST MENTION JUST IN CASE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS
DECIDE TO DECOUPLE...BUT REALLY THINK THE BETTER RISK COMES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS AROUND THESE PARTS AS WE WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND AND WELCOME THE NEW WORK WEEK...COURTESY OF ROBUST LOW LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO GO AROUND DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
DOWNRIGHT COMFORTABLE WEATHER ON TAP AS WE END THE MONTH OF MAY AND
ENTER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE. SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER BUT LOW
HUMIDITY AFTERNOONS AND SOME QUITE CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS. BASED ON
THE PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HANGING OVERHEAD RIGHT ON
THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH A FROST THREAT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN A
VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH COULD ALSO ENVISION ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FROST MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MAYBE JUST MAYBE
WE CAN MUSTER SOME BETTER RETURN FLOW TOWARD WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW
END THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO MAKE A RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN THE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SE FLOW THAT WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP
PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS AND APN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FIRE OFF HERE...AND TRACK GENERALLY NE...LIKELY
NOT AFFECTING ANY AIRPORT...BUT MAY BE CLOSE TO TVC/PLN FOR VCSH
WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE WANING AROUND MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY DEEP DRYING WILL CLEAR OUT
THE SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THAT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING IN OVERHEAD...BUT WILL EXIT EAST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL TURN
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
LIFT INTO FAR NRN LAKE HURON LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE WANING. WINDS INCREASE ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE SFC LATE
TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND IT COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY...BUT
WITH IT`S PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ADVISORIES
WILL BE THEN...SATURDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY MAYBE AS
WELL...AS OVERLAKE STABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281413
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1013 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUN-FILLED SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND NICELY
THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
70S AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS
REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...LARGELY HINGING ON HOW
DEW POINTS RESPOND. MOST HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT KICKS OFF CONVECTION
SIMPLY HAS UNREALISTICALLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...WITH THE
NAM-WRF MID 60 DEW POINTS (SIMPLY UNATTAINABLE) LEADING THE CHARGE.
MODIFYING 12Z LOCAL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO
THE LOWER/MID 50S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ASSUMED STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL CAPPING VIA BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...SUPPORTS UPWARDS
OF SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF ML CAPE...ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING
CINH. SYNOPTIC WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING FORCED LAKE HURON INDUCED CONVERGENCE INTO
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR HIGHLANDS. THIS MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME OTHER DEFICIENCIES...ALLOWING SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DICTATING FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS IDEA...WITH FEW CHANGES NEEDED. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MIXING/DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT WOULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...LAKE BREEZES AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE EXPECTATIONS FROM
24 HRS AGO. AN ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AXIS
ALOFT HAS SLIPPED INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED DUE TO
EARLIER LAKE BREEZES FROM CENTRAL UPPER AND NE WISCONSIN...AND LIGHT
WINDS FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAD
FIRED OFF IN THESE AREAS...AND THE MEAN STORM LAYER FLOW WAS
DIRECTING THEM TOWARD NW LOWER...GENERALLY LEELANAU COUNTY AND AREAS
SOUTH. THERE WAS AN IDENTIFIABLE VERY WEAK VORT MAX THAT MAY HAVE
BEEN HELPING SUSTAIN THESE STORMS...BUT THIS WAS GETTING WASHED OUT
DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHT RISES. PLUS...WANING DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND STORMS MOVING INTO LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE PROVED
EFFICIENT AT ALLOWING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO DWINDLE AND
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES WERE GRADUALLY BECOMING
CLEARER...AND TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING INTO/THROUGH THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FEEL AS IF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LONG GONE AND ERODED
BY DAYBREAK....AND THE DAY STARTS OFF RELATIVELY CLEAR. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST HEADING THROUGH THE DAY WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING BRINING LAKE BREEZES WITH THE MAXIMIZED WIND
CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...EXTENDING WESTWARD
BACK OVER TO ROUGHLY US 131...OR SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S IN NRN LOWER WITH SFC TD`S
MIXING OUT TO 53F-55F RESULTS IN 1000-1200 J/KG. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE OFF IN THE LOW LEVEL LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...AND THEN CONGEAL MORE SO INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
INLAND NRN LOWER UNDER THE GUN FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE...AS
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IN THE 0-10KM LAYER IS ROUGHLY 10KTS...THUS
SLOW MOVING CELLS ARE EXPECTED...DRIFTING NE. SOME OF THESE NE
MOVING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PENETRATE FAR NRN LAKE HURON AND
POSSIBLY EVEN DRUMMOND ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING. NOWHERE ELSE IN
EASTERN UPPER IS EXPECTED TO SEE STORMS...AS THERE THE SE WIND IS
RATHER UNFAVORABLE...AND TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
NIGHTFALL. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FCST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW PRETTY DEEP DRYING.

SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO HAVE A
WATCHFUL EYE ON STRONGER CELLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE BIGGEST
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST
A SMALL RISK FOR SOME OF THOSE TO BECOME SEVERE.

WELL...BACK WE GO INTO AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME TO WRAP UP THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE THINGS REALLY CALM DOWN (AND COOL DOWN!) INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SHARP
UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING THROUGH MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DRIVE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ARRIVING IN THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY IN QUESTION...THOUGH THE OVERALL
TREND OF LATE IS FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN...
SUGGESTING WE MAY HAVE A DECENT SHOT TO REALLY HEAT UP AND MOISTEN
UP PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WHILE UPPER FORCING COULD BE BETTER (THE MAJORITY OF BEST QG UPWARD
SUPPORT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH)...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF A
BAND OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING IN OUR DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING.
IN ADDITION...TURNING OF THE WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE USUAL SUSPECT
SPOTS AS A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT GETS STUCK NEAR THE STRAITS SUGGESTS WE
MAY SEE A BIT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AS WELL WHERE WE MAY LOCALLY
BREAK INITIAL CAPPING. INSTABILITY ON PAPER AT LEAST LOOKS RATHER
DECENT...WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOW (MID?) 80S
PENDING NO CLOUD ISSUES WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SNEAK BACK
THROUGH THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S BASED ON UPSTREAM
READINGS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK BETTER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...
WITH FORECAST RAOBS HINTING AT UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. THROW IN
THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AN
UPTICK IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR TOWARD 30-35 KNOTS AND THE STAGE IS SET
FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TO
A LESSER DEGREE HAIL...THOUGH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS IN EXCESS OF
12KFT ARGUE THAT THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
CERTAINLY A PERIOD TO WATCH.

WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD END LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...
PERSISTENT STRONG AND DEEPER LAYER FRONTOGENESIS LAYING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WELL-MODELED SECONDARY TROUGH
AXIS STRONGLY SUGGESTS A BAND OF RAIN TRAVERSING THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. EXACT ENDING TIME OF THIS PRECIP BAND
REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...BUT MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IT WILL
INCREASINGLY BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRYING WORK IN FROM ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. THAT SHOULD
(THEORETICALLY) LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS JUST PLAIN CLEAR BY EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT OF FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK AND A
DECENT GRADIENT TO THEORETICALLY PREVENT WIDESPREAD COLD TEMPS/
FROST...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WILL CONTINUE A FROST MENTION JUST IN CASE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS
DECIDE TO DECOUPLE...BUT REALLY THINK THE BETTER RISK COMES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS AROUND THESE PARTS AS WE WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND AND WELCOME THE NEW WORK WEEK...COURTESY OF ROBUST LOW LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO GO AROUND DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
DOWNRIGHT COMFORTABLE WEATHER ON TAP AS WE END THE MONTH OF MAY AND
ENTER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE. SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER BUT LOW
HUMIDITY AFTERNOONS AND SOME QUITE CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS. BASED ON
THE PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HANGING OVERHEAD RIGHT ON
THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH A FROST THREAT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN A
VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH COULD ALSO ENVISION ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FROST MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MAYBE JUST MAYBE
WE CAN MUSTER SOME BETTER RETURN FLOW TOWARD WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW
END THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO MAKE A RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN THE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SE FLOW THAT WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP
PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS AND APN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FIRE OFF HERE...AND TRACK GENERALLY NE...LIKELY
NOT AFFECTING ANY AIRPORT...BUT MAY BE CLOSE TO TVC/PLN FOR VCSH
WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE WANING AROUND MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY DEEP DRYING WILL CLEAR OUT
THE SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THAT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING IN OVERHEAD...BUT WILL EXIT EAST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL TURN
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
LIFT INTO FAR NRN LAKE HURON LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE WANING. WINDS INCREASE ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE SFC LATE
TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND IT COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY...BUT
WITH IT`S PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ADVISORIES
WILL BE THEN...SATURDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY MAYBE AS
WELL...AS OVERLAKE STABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281413
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1013 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUN-FILLED SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND NICELY
THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
70S AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS
REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...LARGELY HINGING ON HOW
DEW POINTS RESPOND. MOST HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT KICKS OFF CONVECTION
SIMPLY HAS UNREALISTICALLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...WITH THE
NAM-WRF MID 60 DEW POINTS (SIMPLY UNATTAINABLE) LEADING THE CHARGE.
MODIFYING 12Z LOCAL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO
THE LOWER/MID 50S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ASSUMED STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL CAPPING VIA BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...SUPPORTS UPWARDS
OF SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF ML CAPE...ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING
CINH. SYNOPTIC WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING FORCED LAKE HURON INDUCED CONVERGENCE INTO
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR HIGHLANDS. THIS MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME OTHER DEFICIENCIES...ALLOWING SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DICTATING FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS IDEA...WITH FEW CHANGES NEEDED. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MIXING/DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT WOULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...LAKE BREEZES AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE EXPECTATIONS FROM
24 HRS AGO. AN ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AXIS
ALOFT HAS SLIPPED INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED DUE TO
EARLIER LAKE BREEZES FROM CENTRAL UPPER AND NE WISCONSIN...AND LIGHT
WINDS FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAD
FIRED OFF IN THESE AREAS...AND THE MEAN STORM LAYER FLOW WAS
DIRECTING THEM TOWARD NW LOWER...GENERALLY LEELANAU COUNTY AND AREAS
SOUTH. THERE WAS AN IDENTIFIABLE VERY WEAK VORT MAX THAT MAY HAVE
BEEN HELPING SUSTAIN THESE STORMS...BUT THIS WAS GETTING WASHED OUT
DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHT RISES. PLUS...WANING DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND STORMS MOVING INTO LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE PROVED
EFFICIENT AT ALLOWING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO DWINDLE AND
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES WERE GRADUALLY BECOMING
CLEARER...AND TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING INTO/THROUGH THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FEEL AS IF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LONG GONE AND ERODED
BY DAYBREAK....AND THE DAY STARTS OFF RELATIVELY CLEAR. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST HEADING THROUGH THE DAY WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING BRINING LAKE BREEZES WITH THE MAXIMIZED WIND
CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...EXTENDING WESTWARD
BACK OVER TO ROUGHLY US 131...OR SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S IN NRN LOWER WITH SFC TD`S
MIXING OUT TO 53F-55F RESULTS IN 1000-1200 J/KG. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE OFF IN THE LOW LEVEL LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...AND THEN CONGEAL MORE SO INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
INLAND NRN LOWER UNDER THE GUN FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE...AS
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IN THE 0-10KM LAYER IS ROUGHLY 10KTS...THUS
SLOW MOVING CELLS ARE EXPECTED...DRIFTING NE. SOME OF THESE NE
MOVING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PENETRATE FAR NRN LAKE HURON AND
POSSIBLY EVEN DRUMMOND ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING. NOWHERE ELSE IN
EASTERN UPPER IS EXPECTED TO SEE STORMS...AS THERE THE SE WIND IS
RATHER UNFAVORABLE...AND TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
NIGHTFALL. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FCST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW PRETTY DEEP DRYING.

SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO HAVE A
WATCHFUL EYE ON STRONGER CELLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE BIGGEST
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST
A SMALL RISK FOR SOME OF THOSE TO BECOME SEVERE.

WELL...BACK WE GO INTO AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME TO WRAP UP THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE THINGS REALLY CALM DOWN (AND COOL DOWN!) INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SHARP
UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING THROUGH MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DRIVE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ARRIVING IN THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY IN QUESTION...THOUGH THE OVERALL
TREND OF LATE IS FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN...
SUGGESTING WE MAY HAVE A DECENT SHOT TO REALLY HEAT UP AND MOISTEN
UP PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WHILE UPPER FORCING COULD BE BETTER (THE MAJORITY OF BEST QG UPWARD
SUPPORT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH)...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF A
BAND OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING IN OUR DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING.
IN ADDITION...TURNING OF THE WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE USUAL SUSPECT
SPOTS AS A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT GETS STUCK NEAR THE STRAITS SUGGESTS WE
MAY SEE A BIT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AS WELL WHERE WE MAY LOCALLY
BREAK INITIAL CAPPING. INSTABILITY ON PAPER AT LEAST LOOKS RATHER
DECENT...WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOW (MID?) 80S
PENDING NO CLOUD ISSUES WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SNEAK BACK
THROUGH THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S BASED ON UPSTREAM
READINGS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK BETTER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...
WITH FORECAST RAOBS HINTING AT UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. THROW IN
THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AN
UPTICK IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR TOWARD 30-35 KNOTS AND THE STAGE IS SET
FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TO
A LESSER DEGREE HAIL...THOUGH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS IN EXCESS OF
12KFT ARGUE THAT THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
CERTAINLY A PERIOD TO WATCH.

WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD END LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...
PERSISTENT STRONG AND DEEPER LAYER FRONTOGENESIS LAYING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WELL-MODELED SECONDARY TROUGH
AXIS STRONGLY SUGGESTS A BAND OF RAIN TRAVERSING THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. EXACT ENDING TIME OF THIS PRECIP BAND
REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...BUT MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IT WILL
INCREASINGLY BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRYING WORK IN FROM ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. THAT SHOULD
(THEORETICALLY) LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS JUST PLAIN CLEAR BY EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT OF FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK AND A
DECENT GRADIENT TO THEORETICALLY PREVENT WIDESPREAD COLD TEMPS/
FROST...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WILL CONTINUE A FROST MENTION JUST IN CASE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS
DECIDE TO DECOUPLE...BUT REALLY THINK THE BETTER RISK COMES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS AROUND THESE PARTS AS WE WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND AND WELCOME THE NEW WORK WEEK...COURTESY OF ROBUST LOW LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO GO AROUND DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
DOWNRIGHT COMFORTABLE WEATHER ON TAP AS WE END THE MONTH OF MAY AND
ENTER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE. SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER BUT LOW
HUMIDITY AFTERNOONS AND SOME QUITE CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS. BASED ON
THE PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HANGING OVERHEAD RIGHT ON
THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH A FROST THREAT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN A
VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH COULD ALSO ENVISION ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FROST MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MAYBE JUST MAYBE
WE CAN MUSTER SOME BETTER RETURN FLOW TOWARD WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW
END THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO MAKE A RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN THE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SE FLOW THAT WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP
PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS AND APN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FIRE OFF HERE...AND TRACK GENERALLY NE...LIKELY
NOT AFFECTING ANY AIRPORT...BUT MAY BE CLOSE TO TVC/PLN FOR VCSH
WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE WANING AROUND MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY DEEP DRYING WILL CLEAR OUT
THE SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THAT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING IN OVERHEAD...BUT WILL EXIT EAST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL TURN
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
LIFT INTO FAR NRN LAKE HURON LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE WANING. WINDS INCREASE ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE SFC LATE
TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND IT COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY...BUT
WITH IT`S PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ADVISORIES
WILL BE THEN...SATURDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY MAYBE AS
WELL...AS OVERLAKE STABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281413
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1013 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUN-FILLED SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND NICELY
THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
70S AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS
REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...LARGELY HINGING ON HOW
DEW POINTS RESPOND. MOST HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT KICKS OFF CONVECTION
SIMPLY HAS UNREALISTICALLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...WITH THE
NAM-WRF MID 60 DEW POINTS (SIMPLY UNATTAINABLE) LEADING THE CHARGE.
MODIFYING 12Z LOCAL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO
THE LOWER/MID 50S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ASSUMED STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL CAPPING VIA BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...SUPPORTS UPWARDS
OF SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF ML CAPE...ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING
CINH. SYNOPTIC WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING FORCED LAKE HURON INDUCED CONVERGENCE INTO
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR HIGHLANDS. THIS MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME OTHER DEFICIENCIES...ALLOWING SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DICTATING FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS IDEA...WITH FEW CHANGES NEEDED. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MIXING/DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT WOULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...LAKE BREEZES AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE EXPECTATIONS FROM
24 HRS AGO. AN ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AXIS
ALOFT HAS SLIPPED INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED DUE TO
EARLIER LAKE BREEZES FROM CENTRAL UPPER AND NE WISCONSIN...AND LIGHT
WINDS FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAD
FIRED OFF IN THESE AREAS...AND THE MEAN STORM LAYER FLOW WAS
DIRECTING THEM TOWARD NW LOWER...GENERALLY LEELANAU COUNTY AND AREAS
SOUTH. THERE WAS AN IDENTIFIABLE VERY WEAK VORT MAX THAT MAY HAVE
BEEN HELPING SUSTAIN THESE STORMS...BUT THIS WAS GETTING WASHED OUT
DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHT RISES. PLUS...WANING DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND STORMS MOVING INTO LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE PROVED
EFFICIENT AT ALLOWING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO DWINDLE AND
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES WERE GRADUALLY BECOMING
CLEARER...AND TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING INTO/THROUGH THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FEEL AS IF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LONG GONE AND ERODED
BY DAYBREAK....AND THE DAY STARTS OFF RELATIVELY CLEAR. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST HEADING THROUGH THE DAY WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING BRINING LAKE BREEZES WITH THE MAXIMIZED WIND
CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...EXTENDING WESTWARD
BACK OVER TO ROUGHLY US 131...OR SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S IN NRN LOWER WITH SFC TD`S
MIXING OUT TO 53F-55F RESULTS IN 1000-1200 J/KG. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE OFF IN THE LOW LEVEL LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...AND THEN CONGEAL MORE SO INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
INLAND NRN LOWER UNDER THE GUN FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE...AS
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IN THE 0-10KM LAYER IS ROUGHLY 10KTS...THUS
SLOW MOVING CELLS ARE EXPECTED...DRIFTING NE. SOME OF THESE NE
MOVING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PENETRATE FAR NRN LAKE HURON AND
POSSIBLY EVEN DRUMMOND ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING. NOWHERE ELSE IN
EASTERN UPPER IS EXPECTED TO SEE STORMS...AS THERE THE SE WIND IS
RATHER UNFAVORABLE...AND TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
NIGHTFALL. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FCST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW PRETTY DEEP DRYING.

SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO HAVE A
WATCHFUL EYE ON STRONGER CELLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE BIGGEST
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST
A SMALL RISK FOR SOME OF THOSE TO BECOME SEVERE.

WELL...BACK WE GO INTO AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME TO WRAP UP THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE THINGS REALLY CALM DOWN (AND COOL DOWN!) INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SHARP
UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING THROUGH MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DRIVE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ARRIVING IN THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY IN QUESTION...THOUGH THE OVERALL
TREND OF LATE IS FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN...
SUGGESTING WE MAY HAVE A DECENT SHOT TO REALLY HEAT UP AND MOISTEN
UP PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WHILE UPPER FORCING COULD BE BETTER (THE MAJORITY OF BEST QG UPWARD
SUPPORT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH)...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF A
BAND OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING IN OUR DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING.
IN ADDITION...TURNING OF THE WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE USUAL SUSPECT
SPOTS AS A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT GETS STUCK NEAR THE STRAITS SUGGESTS WE
MAY SEE A BIT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AS WELL WHERE WE MAY LOCALLY
BREAK INITIAL CAPPING. INSTABILITY ON PAPER AT LEAST LOOKS RATHER
DECENT...WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOW (MID?) 80S
PENDING NO CLOUD ISSUES WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SNEAK BACK
THROUGH THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S BASED ON UPSTREAM
READINGS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK BETTER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...
WITH FORECAST RAOBS HINTING AT UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. THROW IN
THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AN
UPTICK IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR TOWARD 30-35 KNOTS AND THE STAGE IS SET
FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TO
A LESSER DEGREE HAIL...THOUGH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS IN EXCESS OF
12KFT ARGUE THAT THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
CERTAINLY A PERIOD TO WATCH.

WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD END LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...
PERSISTENT STRONG AND DEEPER LAYER FRONTOGENESIS LAYING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WELL-MODELED SECONDARY TROUGH
AXIS STRONGLY SUGGESTS A BAND OF RAIN TRAVERSING THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. EXACT ENDING TIME OF THIS PRECIP BAND
REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...BUT MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IT WILL
INCREASINGLY BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRYING WORK IN FROM ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. THAT SHOULD
(THEORETICALLY) LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS JUST PLAIN CLEAR BY EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT OF FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK AND A
DECENT GRADIENT TO THEORETICALLY PREVENT WIDESPREAD COLD TEMPS/
FROST...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WILL CONTINUE A FROST MENTION JUST IN CASE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS
DECIDE TO DECOUPLE...BUT REALLY THINK THE BETTER RISK COMES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS AROUND THESE PARTS AS WE WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND AND WELCOME THE NEW WORK WEEK...COURTESY OF ROBUST LOW LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO GO AROUND DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
DOWNRIGHT COMFORTABLE WEATHER ON TAP AS WE END THE MONTH OF MAY AND
ENTER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE. SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER BUT LOW
HUMIDITY AFTERNOONS AND SOME QUITE CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS. BASED ON
THE PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HANGING OVERHEAD RIGHT ON
THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH A FROST THREAT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN A
VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH COULD ALSO ENVISION ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FROST MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MAYBE JUST MAYBE
WE CAN MUSTER SOME BETTER RETURN FLOW TOWARD WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW
END THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO MAKE A RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN THE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SE FLOW THAT WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP
PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS AND APN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FIRE OFF HERE...AND TRACK GENERALLY NE...LIKELY
NOT AFFECTING ANY AIRPORT...BUT MAY BE CLOSE TO TVC/PLN FOR VCSH
WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE WANING AROUND MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY DEEP DRYING WILL CLEAR OUT
THE SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THAT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING IN OVERHEAD...BUT WILL EXIT EAST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL TURN
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
LIFT INTO FAR NRN LAKE HURON LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE WANING. WINDS INCREASE ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE SFC LATE
TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND IT COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY...BUT
WITH IT`S PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ADVISORIES
WILL BE THEN...SATURDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY MAYBE AS
WELL...AS OVERLAKE STABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KMQT 281151
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
751 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN AND TIME PUT INTO DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THUNDERSTORM (POTENTIALLY STRONG) CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A FRONT IS STALLED JUST S OF THE CWA OR OVER THE SRN CWA. E WIND ON
THE N SIDE OF THE FRONT HAVE PULLED MOISTURE FROM ONTARIO INTO NRN
UPPER MI. AS FAR AS CAN BE SEEN IN WEBCAM IMAGERY AND WITH
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...THE MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN A LOW STRATUS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...AND IS A DENSE FOG
FARTHER INLAND. FOG APPEARS TO BE MOST DENSE OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI
FROM THE NRN HURON MOUNTAIN TO WFO MQT TO KSAW WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ENHANCING THE FOG SOME. THE ESCANABA AREA IS ALSO SEEING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT TIMES...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MORE SPORADIC.
MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HANDLED THE FOG DEVELOPMENT WELL...AND
THEY SHOW DISSIPATION STARTING AFTER 8PM...WITH SIGNIFICANT VIS
IMPROVEMENT BY 9PM. EXPECT MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.

MOVING ON TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THAT STALLED FRONT IS
GOING TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CERTAINLY SEE WARMER AIR MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS
INCREASING FROM 12C THIS MORNING TO 15C THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE
WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE DECENT AT 30-35
KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS IN SOME OF THE CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WHICH COULD IMPROVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO STORMS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR LARGER HAIL. AS FOR
FORCING FOR CONVECTION...MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER
WRN UPPER MI DURING PEAK HEATING. ENOUGH OF THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY
HIGH-RES) WERE SHOWING CONVECTION TO BOOST CONFIDENCE OF
DEVELOPMENT. MORE IN QUESTION IS COVERAGE AND ESPECIALLY STRENGTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE TSRA STRENGTH ON FRIDAY
AND MIN TEMPS/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
BROAD TROUGH FM CNTRL CANADA BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MINUS ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HINT OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TIED TO THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF THAT OCCURS...BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH ALOFT DROPS ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
THE MODELS THAT FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WOULD
CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MLCAPES WILL BE AT
LEAST 500J/KG AND MAY BE OVER 1000 J/KG BY TIME FRONT WORKS ACROSS
IN THE AFTN. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER WI...BUT IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 35 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE HELD DOWN IF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT AN ISSUE AS PERSISTENT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BOOSTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR TO
SAY IF THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION ON FRIDAY...THERE WOULD BE
RISK OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN. SPC DAY3 RISK HAS
MARGINAL CATEGORY MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE INTO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE FRONT
HAS EXITED BEFORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ELIMINATED DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING EVEN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH ON EDGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. POPS
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH THIS FROPA.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LEADS TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER MAY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S DESPITE
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. GRADIENT ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP TEMPS THERE IN THE 40S. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PWATS DROPPING
TO 0.25-0.35 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIRMASS POINT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DWPNTS ON
SATURDAY BLO 30F...A FREEZE IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK OF ANY
ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT FAVORS EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR AND MOST OF LK MICHIGAN FOR MIN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 30S WITH STRONG FROST POSSIBILITY. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ON
SOUTHERLY EDGE OF SFC HIGH COULD KEEP BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORE IN FAR
SCNTRL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FOR
SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INLAND TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES WHICH
IS OVER 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S OR 50S. WENT ON LOW SIDE FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INCLUDED FROST MENTION AGAIN. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
INDICATED MINS BACK TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERS...ESPECIALLY CNTRAL AND EAST.

REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC PUTTING PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITHIN RETURN FLOW. H85 TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY RISE
TO 14C...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION H85-H7. PROBABLY NOT MUCH RISK OF
SHRA THOUGH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. MAYBE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HEADS ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY STAY WEST YET CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS SYSTEM DOES NOT SPEED
UP TO THE EAST...GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA AT KCMX...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDER COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 281151
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
751 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN AND TIME PUT INTO DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THUNDERSTORM (POTENTIALLY STRONG) CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A FRONT IS STALLED JUST S OF THE CWA OR OVER THE SRN CWA. E WIND ON
THE N SIDE OF THE FRONT HAVE PULLED MOISTURE FROM ONTARIO INTO NRN
UPPER MI. AS FAR AS CAN BE SEEN IN WEBCAM IMAGERY AND WITH
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...THE MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN A LOW STRATUS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...AND IS A DENSE FOG
FARTHER INLAND. FOG APPEARS TO BE MOST DENSE OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI
FROM THE NRN HURON MOUNTAIN TO WFO MQT TO KSAW WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ENHANCING THE FOG SOME. THE ESCANABA AREA IS ALSO SEEING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT TIMES...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MORE SPORADIC.
MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HANDLED THE FOG DEVELOPMENT WELL...AND
THEY SHOW DISSIPATION STARTING AFTER 8PM...WITH SIGNIFICANT VIS
IMPROVEMENT BY 9PM. EXPECT MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.

MOVING ON TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THAT STALLED FRONT IS
GOING TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CERTAINLY SEE WARMER AIR MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS
INCREASING FROM 12C THIS MORNING TO 15C THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE
WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE DECENT AT 30-35
KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS IN SOME OF THE CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WHICH COULD IMPROVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO STORMS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR LARGER HAIL. AS FOR
FORCING FOR CONVECTION...MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER
WRN UPPER MI DURING PEAK HEATING. ENOUGH OF THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY
HIGH-RES) WERE SHOWING CONVECTION TO BOOST CONFIDENCE OF
DEVELOPMENT. MORE IN QUESTION IS COVERAGE AND ESPECIALLY STRENGTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE TSRA STRENGTH ON FRIDAY
AND MIN TEMPS/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
BROAD TROUGH FM CNTRL CANADA BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MINUS ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HINT OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TIED TO THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF THAT OCCURS...BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH ALOFT DROPS ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
THE MODELS THAT FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WOULD
CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MLCAPES WILL BE AT
LEAST 500J/KG AND MAY BE OVER 1000 J/KG BY TIME FRONT WORKS ACROSS
IN THE AFTN. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER WI...BUT IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 35 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE HELD DOWN IF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT AN ISSUE AS PERSISTENT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BOOSTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR TO
SAY IF THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION ON FRIDAY...THERE WOULD BE
RISK OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN. SPC DAY3 RISK HAS
MARGINAL CATEGORY MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE INTO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE FRONT
HAS EXITED BEFORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ELIMINATED DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING EVEN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH ON EDGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. POPS
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH THIS FROPA.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LEADS TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER MAY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S DESPITE
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. GRADIENT ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP TEMPS THERE IN THE 40S. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PWATS DROPPING
TO 0.25-0.35 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIRMASS POINT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DWPNTS ON
SATURDAY BLO 30F...A FREEZE IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK OF ANY
ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT FAVORS EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR AND MOST OF LK MICHIGAN FOR MIN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 30S WITH STRONG FROST POSSIBILITY. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ON
SOUTHERLY EDGE OF SFC HIGH COULD KEEP BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORE IN FAR
SCNTRL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FOR
SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INLAND TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES WHICH
IS OVER 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S OR 50S. WENT ON LOW SIDE FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INCLUDED FROST MENTION AGAIN. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
INDICATED MINS BACK TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERS...ESPECIALLY CNTRAL AND EAST.

REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC PUTTING PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITHIN RETURN FLOW. H85 TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY RISE
TO 14C...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION H85-H7. PROBABLY NOT MUCH RISK OF
SHRA THOUGH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. MAYBE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HEADS ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY STAY WEST YET CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS SYSTEM DOES NOT SPEED
UP TO THE EAST...GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA AT KCMX...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDER COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 281151
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
751 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN AND TIME PUT INTO DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THUNDERSTORM (POTENTIALLY STRONG) CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A FRONT IS STALLED JUST S OF THE CWA OR OVER THE SRN CWA. E WIND ON
THE N SIDE OF THE FRONT HAVE PULLED MOISTURE FROM ONTARIO INTO NRN
UPPER MI. AS FAR AS CAN BE SEEN IN WEBCAM IMAGERY AND WITH
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...THE MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN A LOW STRATUS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...AND IS A DENSE FOG
FARTHER INLAND. FOG APPEARS TO BE MOST DENSE OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI
FROM THE NRN HURON MOUNTAIN TO WFO MQT TO KSAW WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ENHANCING THE FOG SOME. THE ESCANABA AREA IS ALSO SEEING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT TIMES...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MORE SPORADIC.
MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HANDLED THE FOG DEVELOPMENT WELL...AND
THEY SHOW DISSIPATION STARTING AFTER 8PM...WITH SIGNIFICANT VIS
IMPROVEMENT BY 9PM. EXPECT MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.

MOVING ON TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THAT STALLED FRONT IS
GOING TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CERTAINLY SEE WARMER AIR MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS
INCREASING FROM 12C THIS MORNING TO 15C THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE
WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE DECENT AT 30-35
KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS IN SOME OF THE CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WHICH COULD IMPROVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO STORMS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR LARGER HAIL. AS FOR
FORCING FOR CONVECTION...MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER
WRN UPPER MI DURING PEAK HEATING. ENOUGH OF THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY
HIGH-RES) WERE SHOWING CONVECTION TO BOOST CONFIDENCE OF
DEVELOPMENT. MORE IN QUESTION IS COVERAGE AND ESPECIALLY STRENGTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE TSRA STRENGTH ON FRIDAY
AND MIN TEMPS/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
BROAD TROUGH FM CNTRL CANADA BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MINUS ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HINT OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TIED TO THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF THAT OCCURS...BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH ALOFT DROPS ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
THE MODELS THAT FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WOULD
CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MLCAPES WILL BE AT
LEAST 500J/KG AND MAY BE OVER 1000 J/KG BY TIME FRONT WORKS ACROSS
IN THE AFTN. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER WI...BUT IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 35 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE HELD DOWN IF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT AN ISSUE AS PERSISTENT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BOOSTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR TO
SAY IF THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION ON FRIDAY...THERE WOULD BE
RISK OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN. SPC DAY3 RISK HAS
MARGINAL CATEGORY MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE INTO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE FRONT
HAS EXITED BEFORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ELIMINATED DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING EVEN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH ON EDGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. POPS
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH THIS FROPA.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LEADS TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER MAY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S DESPITE
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. GRADIENT ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP TEMPS THERE IN THE 40S. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PWATS DROPPING
TO 0.25-0.35 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIRMASS POINT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DWPNTS ON
SATURDAY BLO 30F...A FREEZE IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK OF ANY
ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT FAVORS EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR AND MOST OF LK MICHIGAN FOR MIN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 30S WITH STRONG FROST POSSIBILITY. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ON
SOUTHERLY EDGE OF SFC HIGH COULD KEEP BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORE IN FAR
SCNTRL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FOR
SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INLAND TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES WHICH
IS OVER 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S OR 50S. WENT ON LOW SIDE FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INCLUDED FROST MENTION AGAIN. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
INDICATED MINS BACK TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERS...ESPECIALLY CNTRAL AND EAST.

REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC PUTTING PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITHIN RETURN FLOW. H85 TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY RISE
TO 14C...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION H85-H7. PROBABLY NOT MUCH RISK OF
SHRA THOUGH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. MAYBE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HEADS ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY STAY WEST YET CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS SYSTEM DOES NOT SPEED
UP TO THE EAST...GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA AT KCMX...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDER COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 281151
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
751 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN AND TIME PUT INTO DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THUNDERSTORM (POTENTIALLY STRONG) CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A FRONT IS STALLED JUST S OF THE CWA OR OVER THE SRN CWA. E WIND ON
THE N SIDE OF THE FRONT HAVE PULLED MOISTURE FROM ONTARIO INTO NRN
UPPER MI. AS FAR AS CAN BE SEEN IN WEBCAM IMAGERY AND WITH
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...THE MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN A LOW STRATUS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...AND IS A DENSE FOG
FARTHER INLAND. FOG APPEARS TO BE MOST DENSE OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI
FROM THE NRN HURON MOUNTAIN TO WFO MQT TO KSAW WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ENHANCING THE FOG SOME. THE ESCANABA AREA IS ALSO SEEING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT TIMES...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MORE SPORADIC.
MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HANDLED THE FOG DEVELOPMENT WELL...AND
THEY SHOW DISSIPATION STARTING AFTER 8PM...WITH SIGNIFICANT VIS
IMPROVEMENT BY 9PM. EXPECT MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.

MOVING ON TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THAT STALLED FRONT IS
GOING TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CERTAINLY SEE WARMER AIR MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS
INCREASING FROM 12C THIS MORNING TO 15C THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE
WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE DECENT AT 30-35
KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS IN SOME OF THE CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WHICH COULD IMPROVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO STORMS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR LARGER HAIL. AS FOR
FORCING FOR CONVECTION...MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER
WRN UPPER MI DURING PEAK HEATING. ENOUGH OF THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY
HIGH-RES) WERE SHOWING CONVECTION TO BOOST CONFIDENCE OF
DEVELOPMENT. MORE IN QUESTION IS COVERAGE AND ESPECIALLY STRENGTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE TSRA STRENGTH ON FRIDAY
AND MIN TEMPS/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
BROAD TROUGH FM CNTRL CANADA BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MINUS ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HINT OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TIED TO THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF THAT OCCURS...BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH ALOFT DROPS ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
THE MODELS THAT FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WOULD
CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MLCAPES WILL BE AT
LEAST 500J/KG AND MAY BE OVER 1000 J/KG BY TIME FRONT WORKS ACROSS
IN THE AFTN. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER WI...BUT IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 35 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE HELD DOWN IF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT AN ISSUE AS PERSISTENT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BOOSTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR TO
SAY IF THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION ON FRIDAY...THERE WOULD BE
RISK OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN. SPC DAY3 RISK HAS
MARGINAL CATEGORY MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE INTO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE FRONT
HAS EXITED BEFORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ELIMINATED DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING EVEN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH ON EDGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. POPS
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH THIS FROPA.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LEADS TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER MAY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S DESPITE
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. GRADIENT ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP TEMPS THERE IN THE 40S. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PWATS DROPPING
TO 0.25-0.35 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIRMASS POINT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DWPNTS ON
SATURDAY BLO 30F...A FREEZE IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK OF ANY
ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT FAVORS EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR AND MOST OF LK MICHIGAN FOR MIN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 30S WITH STRONG FROST POSSIBILITY. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ON
SOUTHERLY EDGE OF SFC HIGH COULD KEEP BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORE IN FAR
SCNTRL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FOR
SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INLAND TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES WHICH
IS OVER 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S OR 50S. WENT ON LOW SIDE FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INCLUDED FROST MENTION AGAIN. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
INDICATED MINS BACK TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERS...ESPECIALLY CNTRAL AND EAST.

REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC PUTTING PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITHIN RETURN FLOW. H85 TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY RISE
TO 14C...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION H85-H7. PROBABLY NOT MUCH RISK OF
SHRA THOUGH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. MAYBE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HEADS ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY STAY WEST YET CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS SYSTEM DOES NOT SPEED
UP TO THE EAST...GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA AT KCMX...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDER COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KDTX 281127
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
727 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015


.AVIATION...

THIN LAYER OF FOG DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING BUT FLUCTUATED QUITE
A BIT ACROSS THE REGION. ANY RESIDUAL FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TAKE
OVER THE REGION. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM COULD DEVELOP NEAR MBS BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWERLY FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY. MIXING DEPTHS WILL APPROACH 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER MAY ONLY REACH 15-
20 KNOTS WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTS MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL SUN AND WARMTH THOUGH AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO INITIATE OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN ADDITION TO FORECAST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HOLD
AS ONE HEADS SOUTH BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SFC
TROUGH...SOME ACTIVITY COULD LEAK SOUTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION. THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY THUS JUST WENT WITH 20 POPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC RIDGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL ALLOW
A DECENT BIT OF COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING SFC MOISTURE ELEVATED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS TO BE TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY FOG. ANYTHING THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

LONG TERM...

STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS HAS BEEN CALLING FOR A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING TO GENERATE THE STOUT LOW TO
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS. THAT IS...THE IDAHO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
WORK UNDER THEN BE KICKED AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE PERFECT FOR WEAK
JET ENERGY ATTENDANT TO THE PLAINS CIRCULATION TO CREATE A PSEUDO
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL THEN AID A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN
ORGANIZING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
THEN BE DRIVEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE AREA OF 1000-500MB
HEIGHT RISES.

FRIDAY...HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE BIG QUESTION. LATEST
MODEL DATA...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
COVERAGE OF QPF FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY HERE WITH THE LACK OF CAPPING. WITH THE LOW
TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...AND COMPLETE LACK OF
JET ENERGY ALOFT OVERHEAD STILL DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY. TOTAL LACK OF WIND IN THE COLUMN SUPPORTS A PULSE
TYPE STORM BEHAVIOR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION.

THE DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 28.00Z SUITE WAS TO DISSIPATE THE FIRST
AXIS OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING THE DOMINANT 850-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T FEEL THIS IS A
HUGE DEAL...BUT IT DOES POSSIBLY SIGNIFY THAT MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DIALED IN ON SOME LARGE SCALE GOVERNING DYNAMICS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DEPICT A VERY GOOD FRONTAL SUPPORT WITH UPRIGHT
ASCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A TOTAL VOID OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RATHER...MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORECAST PWATS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MARINE...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF WINDSPEEDS
RANGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 281127
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
727 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015


.AVIATION...

THIN LAYER OF FOG DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING BUT FLUCTUATED QUITE
A BIT ACROSS THE REGION. ANY RESIDUAL FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TAKE
OVER THE REGION. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM COULD DEVELOP NEAR MBS BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWERLY FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY. MIXING DEPTHS WILL APPROACH 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER MAY ONLY REACH 15-
20 KNOTS WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTS MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL SUN AND WARMTH THOUGH AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO INITIATE OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN ADDITION TO FORECAST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HOLD
AS ONE HEADS SOUTH BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SFC
TROUGH...SOME ACTIVITY COULD LEAK SOUTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION. THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY THUS JUST WENT WITH 20 POPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC RIDGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL ALLOW
A DECENT BIT OF COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING SFC MOISTURE ELEVATED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS TO BE TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY FOG. ANYTHING THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

LONG TERM...

STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS HAS BEEN CALLING FOR A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING TO GENERATE THE STOUT LOW TO
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS. THAT IS...THE IDAHO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
WORK UNDER THEN BE KICKED AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE PERFECT FOR WEAK
JET ENERGY ATTENDANT TO THE PLAINS CIRCULATION TO CREATE A PSEUDO
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL THEN AID A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN
ORGANIZING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
THEN BE DRIVEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE AREA OF 1000-500MB
HEIGHT RISES.

FRIDAY...HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE BIG QUESTION. LATEST
MODEL DATA...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
COVERAGE OF QPF FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY HERE WITH THE LACK OF CAPPING. WITH THE LOW
TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...AND COMPLETE LACK OF
JET ENERGY ALOFT OVERHEAD STILL DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY. TOTAL LACK OF WIND IN THE COLUMN SUPPORTS A PULSE
TYPE STORM BEHAVIOR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION.

THE DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 28.00Z SUITE WAS TO DISSIPATE THE FIRST
AXIS OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING THE DOMINANT 850-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T FEEL THIS IS A
HUGE DEAL...BUT IT DOES POSSIBLY SIGNIFY THAT MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DIALED IN ON SOME LARGE SCALE GOVERNING DYNAMICS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DEPICT A VERY GOOD FRONTAL SUPPORT WITH UPRIGHT
ASCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A TOTAL VOID OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RATHER...MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORECAST PWATS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MARINE...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF WINDSPEEDS
RANGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 281127
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
727 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015


.AVIATION...

THIN LAYER OF FOG DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING BUT FLUCTUATED QUITE
A BIT ACROSS THE REGION. ANY RESIDUAL FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TAKE
OVER THE REGION. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM COULD DEVELOP NEAR MBS BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWERLY FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY. MIXING DEPTHS WILL APPROACH 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER MAY ONLY REACH 15-
20 KNOTS WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTS MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL SUN AND WARMTH THOUGH AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO INITIATE OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN ADDITION TO FORECAST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HOLD
AS ONE HEADS SOUTH BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SFC
TROUGH...SOME ACTIVITY COULD LEAK SOUTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION. THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY THUS JUST WENT WITH 20 POPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC RIDGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL ALLOW
A DECENT BIT OF COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING SFC MOISTURE ELEVATED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS TO BE TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY FOG. ANYTHING THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

LONG TERM...

STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS HAS BEEN CALLING FOR A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING TO GENERATE THE STOUT LOW TO
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS. THAT IS...THE IDAHO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
WORK UNDER THEN BE KICKED AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE PERFECT FOR WEAK
JET ENERGY ATTENDANT TO THE PLAINS CIRCULATION TO CREATE A PSEUDO
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL THEN AID A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN
ORGANIZING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
THEN BE DRIVEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE AREA OF 1000-500MB
HEIGHT RISES.

FRIDAY...HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE BIG QUESTION. LATEST
MODEL DATA...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
COVERAGE OF QPF FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY HERE WITH THE LACK OF CAPPING. WITH THE LOW
TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...AND COMPLETE LACK OF
JET ENERGY ALOFT OVERHEAD STILL DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY. TOTAL LACK OF WIND IN THE COLUMN SUPPORTS A PULSE
TYPE STORM BEHAVIOR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION.

THE DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 28.00Z SUITE WAS TO DISSIPATE THE FIRST
AXIS OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING THE DOMINANT 850-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T FEEL THIS IS A
HUGE DEAL...BUT IT DOES POSSIBLY SIGNIFY THAT MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DIALED IN ON SOME LARGE SCALE GOVERNING DYNAMICS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DEPICT A VERY GOOD FRONTAL SUPPORT WITH UPRIGHT
ASCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A TOTAL VOID OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RATHER...MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORECAST PWATS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MARINE...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF WINDSPEEDS
RANGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 281050
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY KEEPING THE WEATHER
MAINLY DRY AND WARM. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP AND
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TO START...IT LOOKS LIKE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ON THE LAKE BREEZE. IT BECOMES
UNSTABLE AND THE INCREASED CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN. THUS I ADDED A MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST.
UPON SUNSET...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE. EASTERLY FLOW
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS SHOULD SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED AS A RESULT WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
80S LIKELY.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COVERAGE ON FRIDAY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO A
DELAY IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER AS THE DAY
EVOLVES WE SHOULD SEE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE WHICH
SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. BY THE
END OF THE DAY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING. THUS DURING
THE EVENING RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY IN PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AND
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ANY STORMS THAT DO TRY TO BECOME SEVERE SHOULD BE
PULSE IN NATURE. BY SATURDAY MORNING STRONGER SHEAR MOVES IN WITH
THE FRONT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. LOCALLY OVER AN INCH OF RAIN SHOULD FALL
IN A FEW LOCATIONS. I DID FEATURE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST
TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S.
HOWEVER EASTERLY WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO INHIBIT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY POTENTIALLY COULD.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN FAIR AND COOL WEATHER.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY ACROSS OUR FAR NNE FCST AREA.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG AROUND TO START THE PERIOD...BUT THAT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 13Z. CURRENTLY FORECAST SITES ARE NOT IMPACTED BY THE
FOG. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT SHOULD TOUCH OFF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. KGRR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST PRONE AND FOR NOW I ADDED VCSH FOR A 1 HR WINDOW AROUND 18Z.
FORECAST TRENDS SUGGEST THE MAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRI...THUS TAFS ARE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEEK TODAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AROUND LITTLE AND BIG SABLE
POINTS. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WAVES BUILD CONSIDERABLY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE LOW AND STABLE ACROSS THE AREA. HAD 1/2 TO 3/4
OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS MOST RECENT SYSTEM... AND
SOME SMALL UP TICS NOTED ON AREA RIVERS. EXPECTING NO FLOODING
THROUGH THE WEEK.

A POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY (OVER AN INCH) MAY
PUSH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL BY NEXT WEEK... IF
THESE AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 281050
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY KEEPING THE WEATHER
MAINLY DRY AND WARM. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP AND
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TO START...IT LOOKS LIKE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ON THE LAKE BREEZE. IT BECOMES
UNSTABLE AND THE INCREASED CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN. THUS I ADDED A MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST.
UPON SUNSET...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE. EASTERLY FLOW
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS SHOULD SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED AS A RESULT WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
80S LIKELY.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COVERAGE ON FRIDAY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO A
DELAY IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER AS THE DAY
EVOLVES WE SHOULD SEE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE WHICH
SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. BY THE
END OF THE DAY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING. THUS DURING
THE EVENING RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY IN PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AND
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ANY STORMS THAT DO TRY TO BECOME SEVERE SHOULD BE
PULSE IN NATURE. BY SATURDAY MORNING STRONGER SHEAR MOVES IN WITH
THE FRONT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. LOCALLY OVER AN INCH OF RAIN SHOULD FALL
IN A FEW LOCATIONS. I DID FEATURE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST
TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S.
HOWEVER EASTERLY WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO INHIBIT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY POTENTIALLY COULD.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN FAIR AND COOL WEATHER.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY ACROSS OUR FAR NNE FCST AREA.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG AROUND TO START THE PERIOD...BUT THAT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 13Z. CURRENTLY FORECAST SITES ARE NOT IMPACTED BY THE
FOG. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT SHOULD TOUCH OFF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. KGRR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST PRONE AND FOR NOW I ADDED VCSH FOR A 1 HR WINDOW AROUND 18Z.
FORECAST TRENDS SUGGEST THE MAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRI...THUS TAFS ARE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEEK TODAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AROUND LITTLE AND BIG SABLE
POINTS. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WAVES BUILD CONSIDERABLY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE LOW AND STABLE ACROSS THE AREA. HAD 1/2 TO 3/4
OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS MOST RECENT SYSTEM... AND
SOME SMALL UP TICS NOTED ON AREA RIVERS. EXPECTING NO FLOODING
THROUGH THE WEEK.

A POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY (OVER AN INCH) MAY
PUSH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL BY NEXT WEEK... IF
THESE AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281050
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY KEEPING THE WEATHER
MAINLY DRY AND WARM. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP AND
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TO START...IT LOOKS LIKE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDER