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000
FXUS63 KMQT 010920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THIS MORNING AS SLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A 994MB SFC LOW
OVER WRN ND AND A SFC HIGH E OF THE CWA. WAA PICKS UP THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING APPRECIABLE
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER
FROM 925MB TO 700MB. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN WI/WRN
UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONVECTION THEN SHOULD MOVE ENE AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS E WHILE WEAKENING. ONLY INCLUDED MENTIONS OF THUNDER ALONG
THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSION OF CONVECTION TO
THE SW SHOULD LIMIT CAPE FROM DEVELOPING FARTHER N. SOME OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI SEEING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH
SHIFT QUICKLY E AND INCREASE WAA/FORCING BECOMES A GREATER
FACTOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE LOSS OF FORCING DUE TO THE
THROUGH WEAKENING. PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ERN HALF OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THU...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS FOR
AFTER 12Z THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 50KTS FROM THE S-SW. HIGHEST SFC GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR W AT IRONWOOD AND VICINITY WHERE LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST DUE TO THE BEST SFC WARMING. WITH COOLING OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST...GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET UP TO AROUND 60F OVER THE FAR
W...REDUCED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY CENTRAL UPPER MI DUE TO SSE-
SE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER. OVER ERN
UPPER MI...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS DOWNWIND EFFECT
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS MORE PRONOUNCED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.
LOWS TONIGHT ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE SLOWER IN MOVING THE FRONT AND
PCPN OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM. MODEL
COMPROMISE WILL STILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER THE EAST
HALF(MAINLY BEFORE 15Z) AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA WITH
THE 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND LOW
LEVEL CONV WITH THE SFC TROUGH SUPPORTING PCPN. THE DRY SLOT THEN
MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING.
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S SOUTH AND WEST AND THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST. MIXING AT LEAST TO 7K FT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND
25 MPH OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ALSO DROP
DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 20F. THE WINDS AND RH BELOW 25 PCT WILL BRING
ELEVATED RISKS FOR WILDFIRES...ESPECIALLY IF ONLY LIGHT OR NO PCPN
FALLS OVER SOME AREA WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH UPPER
MI THU EVENING WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z/FRI.
WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW 4K FT...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR LES...ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED FROM
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING INCLUDED FOR NW FLOW FAVORED
AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...ABOUT 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY.

SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A CLIPPER SHRTWV
SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND ONLY MODERATE FORCING...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN AN INCH. A MIX WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTH WHERE ENOUGH WARMER AIR LINGERS.

SUN...THERE WERE GREATER DIFFERENCES AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITION OCCURS. THE 00Z/01 ECMWF ALLOWS ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV TO BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW INTO THE AREA SUN
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING OVER THE AREA.

MON-TUE...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND WAA PATTERN COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE NRN LAKES. THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS A
MORE PROMINENT CONFLUENT NRN STREAM THROUGH NRN ONTARIO AND HIGH
PRES INTO THE NRN LAKES REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN COMPARED TO THE GFS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THIS MORNING AS SLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A 994MB SFC LOW
OVER WRN ND AND A SFC HIGH E OF THE CWA. WAA PICKS UP THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING APPRECIABLE
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER
FROM 925MB TO 700MB. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN WI/WRN
UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONVECTION THEN SHOULD MOVE ENE AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS E WHILE WEAKENING. ONLY INCLUDED MENTIONS OF THUNDER ALONG
THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSION OF CONVECTION TO
THE SW SHOULD LIMIT CAPE FROM DEVELOPING FARTHER N. SOME OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI SEEING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH
SHIFT QUICKLY E AND INCREASE WAA/FORCING BECOMES A GREATER
FACTOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE LOSS OF FORCING DUE TO THE
THROUGH WEAKENING. PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ERN HALF OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THU...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS FOR
AFTER 12Z THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 50KTS FROM THE S-SW. HIGHEST SFC GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR W AT IRONWOOD AND VICINITY WHERE LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST DUE TO THE BEST SFC WARMING. WITH COOLING OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST...GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET UP TO AROUND 60F OVER THE FAR
W...REDUCED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY CENTRAL UPPER MI DUE TO SSE-
SE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER. OVER ERN
UPPER MI...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS DOWNWIND EFFECT
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS MORE PRONOUNCED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.
LOWS TONIGHT ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE SLOWER IN MOVING THE FRONT AND
PCPN OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM. MODEL
COMPROMISE WILL STILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER THE EAST
HALF(MAINLY BEFORE 15Z) AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA WITH
THE 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND LOW
LEVEL CONV WITH THE SFC TROUGH SUPPORTING PCPN. THE DRY SLOT THEN
MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING.
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S SOUTH AND WEST AND THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST. MIXING AT LEAST TO 7K FT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND
25 MPH OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ALSO DROP
DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 20F. THE WINDS AND RH BELOW 25 PCT WILL BRING
ELEVATED RISKS FOR WILDFIRES...ESPECIALLY IF ONLY LIGHT OR NO PCPN
FALLS OVER SOME AREA WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH UPPER
MI THU EVENING WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z/FRI.
WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW 4K FT...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR LES...ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED FROM
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING INCLUDED FOR NW FLOW FAVORED
AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...ABOUT 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY.

SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A CLIPPER SHRTWV
SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND ONLY MODERATE FORCING...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN AN INCH. A MIX WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTH WHERE ENOUGH WARMER AIR LINGERS.

SUN...THERE WERE GREATER DIFFERENCES AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITION OCCURS. THE 00Z/01 ECMWF ALLOWS ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV TO BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW INTO THE AREA SUN
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING OVER THE AREA.

MON-TUE...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND WAA PATTERN COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE NRN LAKES. THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS A
MORE PROMINENT CONFLUENT NRN STREAM THROUGH NRN ONTARIO AND HIGH
PRES INTO THE NRN LAKES REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN COMPARED TO THE GFS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 010920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THIS MORNING AS SLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A 994MB SFC LOW
OVER WRN ND AND A SFC HIGH E OF THE CWA. WAA PICKS UP THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING APPRECIABLE
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER
FROM 925MB TO 700MB. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN WI/WRN
UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONVECTION THEN SHOULD MOVE ENE AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS E WHILE WEAKENING. ONLY INCLUDED MENTIONS OF THUNDER ALONG
THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSION OF CONVECTION TO
THE SW SHOULD LIMIT CAPE FROM DEVELOPING FARTHER N. SOME OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI SEEING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH
SHIFT QUICKLY E AND INCREASE WAA/FORCING BECOMES A GREATER
FACTOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE LOSS OF FORCING DUE TO THE
THROUGH WEAKENING. PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ERN HALF OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THU...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS FOR
AFTER 12Z THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 50KTS FROM THE S-SW. HIGHEST SFC GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR W AT IRONWOOD AND VICINITY WHERE LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST DUE TO THE BEST SFC WARMING. WITH COOLING OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST...GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET UP TO AROUND 60F OVER THE FAR
W...REDUCED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY CENTRAL UPPER MI DUE TO SSE-
SE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER. OVER ERN
UPPER MI...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS DOWNWIND EFFECT
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS MORE PRONOUNCED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.
LOWS TONIGHT ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE SLOWER IN MOVING THE FRONT AND
PCPN OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM. MODEL
COMPROMISE WILL STILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER THE EAST
HALF(MAINLY BEFORE 15Z) AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA WITH
THE 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND LOW
LEVEL CONV WITH THE SFC TROUGH SUPPORTING PCPN. THE DRY SLOT THEN
MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING.
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S SOUTH AND WEST AND THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST. MIXING AT LEAST TO 7K FT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND
25 MPH OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ALSO DROP
DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 20F. THE WINDS AND RH BELOW 25 PCT WILL BRING
ELEVATED RISKS FOR WILDFIRES...ESPECIALLY IF ONLY LIGHT OR NO PCPN
FALLS OVER SOME AREA WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH UPPER
MI THU EVENING WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z/FRI.
WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW 4K FT...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR LES...ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED FROM
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING INCLUDED FOR NW FLOW FAVORED
AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...ABOUT 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY.

SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A CLIPPER SHRTWV
SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND ONLY MODERATE FORCING...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN AN INCH. A MIX WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTH WHERE ENOUGH WARMER AIR LINGERS.

SUN...THERE WERE GREATER DIFFERENCES AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITION OCCURS. THE 00Z/01 ECMWF ALLOWS ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV TO BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW INTO THE AREA SUN
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING OVER THE AREA.

MON-TUE...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND WAA PATTERN COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE NRN LAKES. THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS A
MORE PROMINENT CONFLUENT NRN STREAM THROUGH NRN ONTARIO AND HIGH
PRES INTO THE NRN LAKES REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN COMPARED TO THE GFS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THIS MORNING AS SLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A 994MB SFC LOW
OVER WRN ND AND A SFC HIGH E OF THE CWA. WAA PICKS UP THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING APPRECIABLE
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER
FROM 925MB TO 700MB. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN WI/WRN
UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONVECTION THEN SHOULD MOVE ENE AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS E WHILE WEAKENING. ONLY INCLUDED MENTIONS OF THUNDER ALONG
THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSION OF CONVECTION TO
THE SW SHOULD LIMIT CAPE FROM DEVELOPING FARTHER N. SOME OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI SEEING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH
SHIFT QUICKLY E AND INCREASE WAA/FORCING BECOMES A GREATER
FACTOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE LOSS OF FORCING DUE TO THE
THROUGH WEAKENING. PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ERN HALF OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THU...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS FOR
AFTER 12Z THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 50KTS FROM THE S-SW. HIGHEST SFC GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR W AT IRONWOOD AND VICINITY WHERE LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST DUE TO THE BEST SFC WARMING. WITH COOLING OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST...GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET UP TO AROUND 60F OVER THE FAR
W...REDUCED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY CENTRAL UPPER MI DUE TO SSE-
SE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER. OVER ERN
UPPER MI...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS DOWNWIND EFFECT
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS MORE PRONOUNCED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.
LOWS TONIGHT ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE SLOWER IN MOVING THE FRONT AND
PCPN OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM. MODEL
COMPROMISE WILL STILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER THE EAST
HALF(MAINLY BEFORE 15Z) AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA WITH
THE 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND LOW
LEVEL CONV WITH THE SFC TROUGH SUPPORTING PCPN. THE DRY SLOT THEN
MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING.
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S SOUTH AND WEST AND THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST. MIXING AT LEAST TO 7K FT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND
25 MPH OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ALSO DROP
DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 20F. THE WINDS AND RH BELOW 25 PCT WILL BRING
ELEVATED RISKS FOR WILDFIRES...ESPECIALLY IF ONLY LIGHT OR NO PCPN
FALLS OVER SOME AREA WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH UPPER
MI THU EVENING WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z/FRI.
WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW 4K FT...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR LES...ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED FROM
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING INCLUDED FOR NW FLOW FAVORED
AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...ABOUT 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY.

SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A CLIPPER SHRTWV
SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND ONLY MODERATE FORCING...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN AN INCH. A MIX WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTH WHERE ENOUGH WARMER AIR LINGERS.

SUN...THERE WERE GREATER DIFFERENCES AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITION OCCURS. THE 00Z/01 ECMWF ALLOWS ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV TO BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW INTO THE AREA SUN
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING OVER THE AREA.

MON-TUE...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND WAA PATTERN COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE NRN LAKES. THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS A
MORE PROMINENT CONFLUENT NRN STREAM THROUGH NRN ONTARIO AND HIGH
PRES INTO THE NRN LAKES REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN COMPARED TO THE GFS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KAPX 010848
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
448 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...NICE DAY FOR SOME/INCREASING PRECIP THREAT FOR OTHERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT. "SNEAKY" WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
FOR EASTERN UPPER LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: APRIL COMMENCES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEPARTING NORTHEAST LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDNIGHT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW (1014MB) OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN WAS RELATIVELY
FLAT...INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS WHERE A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA.  50+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS/PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP TO THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER.
ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WERE
PUSHING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  THIS IS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS THE ENDING OF OUR EARLIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME CLEARING HAS
WORKED INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTING THIS
MORNING...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.  WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: EARLY CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  POSSIBILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TODAY...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TO START THE DAY...ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  LOWER CLOUD
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO THIN WITH TIME THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALTOCUMULUS.  INTERESTING
SIGNAL IN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN/POSSIBLY INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF WEAKER STATIC STABILITY.  THE IMPLICATION IS A THICKENING
CLOUD BAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...MAY BE MORE OF A VIRGA
STORM THE FARTHER SOUTH BELOW THE BRIDGE ONE GOES).  PRECIP TYPE
COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL.  SHOULD BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH LOWER-MID 50S
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS
"BENDS" ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.  SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SHOWING
SOME INTERESTING POTENTIAL WITH DECENT PROBABILITIES OF 0.25-0.50
INCH LIQUID ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT SHOULD
TEND TO SWITCH PRECIP TOWARD MORE LIQUID...THOUGH EARLY-MID EVENING
STILL COULD SEE SNOW OR POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE FLIRTING WITH
THE FREEZING MARK.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...COULD BE SOME SNEAKY
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IF THINGS COME TOGETHER.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET 60+KTS WILL FOCUS ON MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
TILTING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN.  THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO ANY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL RUN THIS POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...WILL BE PRETTY STABLE SO
WON`T BE TAPPING INTO THE 60+KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
TO BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MECHANICAL MIXING TO ALLOW FOR
GUSTS 20-30MPH (AND HIGHER ALONG NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL (HEY IT IS
APRIL AFTER ALL). INTENTLY WATCHING PESKY SECONDARY WAVE POTENTIAL
LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT THERE COULD BE
A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AT LEAST PART OF NORTHERN LOWER.

WELL NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WE SURVIVED THE 6TH MONTH OF WINTER AS
MARCH HAS COME TO A CLOSE. THAT MEANS IT`S TIME TO TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO WARMER WEATHER AND SPRING-LIKE THOUGHTS...AND INDEED
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE JUST SUCH CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AND THERE`S
ALWAYS A HOWEVER HERE IN THE NORTHERN LAKES...DON`T GET USED TO IT
WITH A SOLID TREND TOWARD WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO
FRIDAY AND BEYOND. YUCK! OH WELL...LET`S GET TO IT...

OUR WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE ITS
APPROACH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TENDING TO
SLOW ITS PASSAGE BY A FEW HOURS INTO THE MIDDAY PERIOD. ALMOST
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SITUATION AROUND 18Z
FOLLOWED BY THE "TRUE" COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING...OF COURSE
USHERING IN OUR NEXT SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER. FROM A MOISTURE
STANDPOINT...STILL LOOKS OUTSTANDING WITH AN AXIS OF 1+" PWATS
ROLLING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED
BY A MODEST AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY TIED TO A RESPECTABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET CIRCULATION WORKING
BASICALLY OVERHEAD. AXIS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
NATURALLY TEND TO DESTABILIZE THINGS...WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES
PERHAPS PUSHING 600 J/KG OR SO IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

COUPLE THAT WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR PROFILES UP IN THE 50 KNOT RANGE
AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AND STILL HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE IS A SHOT
WE COULD THROW OUT SOME SMALLER HAILSTONES FROM ANY HEAVIER CORES.
THE ONLY THING LACKING IS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SO DON`T SEE ANY
REAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TEMPS TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH
EASTERN AREAS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT WELL INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER
60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE STEADIER RAINS/CLOUDS PROBABLY
HOLD NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS DOWN IN THE 40S...PROBABLY EVEN
DIPPING INTO THE 30S LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION
AND ENHANCEMENT FROM THE COLD LAKE WATERS. SPEAKING OF SUCH
THINGS...MIGHT BE DEALING WITH SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME
GIVEN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 40S
OVER LOW/MID 30S WATER TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION.

LOOKING RATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY AS SHARP
DRYING ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE WHILE WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING FOLDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE. BIG
QUESTIONS THEN ARISE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH REGARD TO A
MORE ROBUST PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND LIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. 12Z GUIDANCE
SUITE STRONGLY TRENDED THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD...TO THE POINT WHERE A BROADER PRECIP SHIELD MAY
WELL TRY TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER. NOT REALLY SURE I
AGREE WITH THIS IDEA GIVEN THE FLAT LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW (INDEED
00Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING BACK SOUTH)...BUT IF ANY PLACE HAS A SHOT
IT WOULD BE AREAS CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY...WITH SUFFICIENT COLD AIR
INTACT OVER THE AREA TO DRIVE A MAINLY ALL SNOW EVENT. NOT READY TO
PUT ALL MY EGGS IN THAT BASKET JUST YET (POOR EASTER JOKE...SORRY)
BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS OUR WAVE IS MUCH BETTER SAMPLED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE ROLL THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND AND
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
WAVES EXPECTED INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY A MUCH MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. HONESTLY HAVE TO ADMIT THAT MY
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF WEAKER SYSTEMS
THIS WEEKEND WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY NOTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN
OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR THESE TIGHT GRADIENT SYSTEMS TO OVER
PERFORM (I.E. LAST NIGHT`S SNOWFALL)...HAVE TO REALLY WATCH THESE AS
THEY APPROACH. AT THE MOMENT...STILL LOOKING LIKE ONE WEAK WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKISH FGEN WILL SKIRT THE AREA LATER SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ONE NOW ADVERTISED INTO SUNDAY. THERMALLY SPEAKING...LOOKS
CHILLY ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT LOTS OF TIME TO FINE TUNE
THOSE DETAILS.

BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED HINTS
OF FAIRLY STRONG PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS LIFTING A WARM FRONT UP TOWARD
THE LOWER LAKES...ALL WHILE THE COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THAT SHOULD PUT THE SQUEEZE PLAY ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH
SEVERAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALONG A RATHER TIGHT
GRADIENT. NOT SURPRISINGLY IN THIS SETUP...MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE BEST GRADIENT/FGEN RESPONSE...WHICH WILL
HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON WHAT TYPE(S) OF WEATHER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EXPERIENCES. IT COULD BE ANYTHING FROM CONVECTION TO MIXED PRECIP
(FREEZING RAIN?) TO EVEN JUST PLAIN SNOW...OR ALL OF THE ABOVE.
HISTORICALLY...THIS TYPE OF SETUP HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE SOME
DECENT LATE SEASON SNOWS UP THIS WAY BUT LOTS OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
ALL UNFOLD. OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THE FACT THAT TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PLN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD MVFR AT APN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AT
TVC/MBL...PERHAPS SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS TO START THE DAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY FLAT
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...BUT THAT WILL CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SYNOPTIC WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.  LOCAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS WILL IMPACT WIND WITHIN INDIVIDUAL
NEARSHORE ZONES WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD AN ONSHORE COMPONENT (OR AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT WE TEND TO SEE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS WITH STRONG CROSS-ISOBARIC FLOW). WILL ISSUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND FOR
NORTHWEST LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES FOR NOW...WILL
PROBABLY NEED THEM IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 010848
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
448 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...NICE DAY FOR SOME/INCREASING PRECIP THREAT FOR OTHERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT. "SNEAKY" WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
FOR EASTERN UPPER LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: APRIL COMMENCES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEPARTING NORTHEAST LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDNIGHT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW (1014MB) OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN WAS RELATIVELY
FLAT...INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS WHERE A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA.  50+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS/PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP TO THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER.
ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WERE
PUSHING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  THIS IS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS THE ENDING OF OUR EARLIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME CLEARING HAS
WORKED INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTING THIS
MORNING...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.  WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: EARLY CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  POSSIBILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TODAY...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TO START THE DAY...ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  LOWER CLOUD
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO THIN WITH TIME THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALTOCUMULUS.  INTERESTING
SIGNAL IN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN/POSSIBLY INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF WEAKER STATIC STABILITY.  THE IMPLICATION IS A THICKENING
CLOUD BAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...MAY BE MORE OF A VIRGA
STORM THE FARTHER SOUTH BELOW THE BRIDGE ONE GOES).  PRECIP TYPE
COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL.  SHOULD BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH LOWER-MID 50S
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS
"BENDS" ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.  SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SHOWING
SOME INTERESTING POTENTIAL WITH DECENT PROBABILITIES OF 0.25-0.50
INCH LIQUID ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT SHOULD
TEND TO SWITCH PRECIP TOWARD MORE LIQUID...THOUGH EARLY-MID EVENING
STILL COULD SEE SNOW OR POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE FLIRTING WITH
THE FREEZING MARK.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...COULD BE SOME SNEAKY
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IF THINGS COME TOGETHER.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET 60+KTS WILL FOCUS ON MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
TILTING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN.  THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO ANY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL RUN THIS POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...WILL BE PRETTY STABLE SO
WON`T BE TAPPING INTO THE 60+KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
TO BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MECHANICAL MIXING TO ALLOW FOR
GUSTS 20-30MPH (AND HIGHER ALONG NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL (HEY IT IS
APRIL AFTER ALL). INTENTLY WATCHING PESKY SECONDARY WAVE POTENTIAL
LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT THERE COULD BE
A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AT LEAST PART OF NORTHERN LOWER.

WELL NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WE SURVIVED THE 6TH MONTH OF WINTER AS
MARCH HAS COME TO A CLOSE. THAT MEANS IT`S TIME TO TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO WARMER WEATHER AND SPRING-LIKE THOUGHTS...AND INDEED
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE JUST SUCH CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AND THERE`S
ALWAYS A HOWEVER HERE IN THE NORTHERN LAKES...DON`T GET USED TO IT
WITH A SOLID TREND TOWARD WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO
FRIDAY AND BEYOND. YUCK! OH WELL...LET`S GET TO IT...

OUR WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE ITS
APPROACH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TENDING TO
SLOW ITS PASSAGE BY A FEW HOURS INTO THE MIDDAY PERIOD. ALMOST
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SITUATION AROUND 18Z
FOLLOWED BY THE "TRUE" COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING...OF COURSE
USHERING IN OUR NEXT SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER. FROM A MOISTURE
STANDPOINT...STILL LOOKS OUTSTANDING WITH AN AXIS OF 1+" PWATS
ROLLING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED
BY A MODEST AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY TIED TO A RESPECTABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET CIRCULATION WORKING
BASICALLY OVERHEAD. AXIS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
NATURALLY TEND TO DESTABILIZE THINGS...WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES
PERHAPS PUSHING 600 J/KG OR SO IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

COUPLE THAT WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR PROFILES UP IN THE 50 KNOT RANGE
AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AND STILL HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE IS A SHOT
WE COULD THROW OUT SOME SMALLER HAILSTONES FROM ANY HEAVIER CORES.
THE ONLY THING LACKING IS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SO DON`T SEE ANY
REAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TEMPS TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH
EASTERN AREAS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT WELL INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER
60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE STEADIER RAINS/CLOUDS PROBABLY
HOLD NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS DOWN IN THE 40S...PROBABLY EVEN
DIPPING INTO THE 30S LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION
AND ENHANCEMENT FROM THE COLD LAKE WATERS. SPEAKING OF SUCH
THINGS...MIGHT BE DEALING WITH SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME
GIVEN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 40S
OVER LOW/MID 30S WATER TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION.

LOOKING RATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY AS SHARP
DRYING ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE WHILE WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING FOLDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE. BIG
QUESTIONS THEN ARISE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH REGARD TO A
MORE ROBUST PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND LIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. 12Z GUIDANCE
SUITE STRONGLY TRENDED THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD...TO THE POINT WHERE A BROADER PRECIP SHIELD MAY
WELL TRY TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER. NOT REALLY SURE I
AGREE WITH THIS IDEA GIVEN THE FLAT LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW (INDEED
00Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING BACK SOUTH)...BUT IF ANY PLACE HAS A SHOT
IT WOULD BE AREAS CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY...WITH SUFFICIENT COLD AIR
INTACT OVER THE AREA TO DRIVE A MAINLY ALL SNOW EVENT. NOT READY TO
PUT ALL MY EGGS IN THAT BASKET JUST YET (POOR EASTER JOKE...SORRY)
BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS OUR WAVE IS MUCH BETTER SAMPLED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE ROLL THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND AND
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
WAVES EXPECTED INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY A MUCH MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. HONESTLY HAVE TO ADMIT THAT MY
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF WEAKER SYSTEMS
THIS WEEKEND WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY NOTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN
OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR THESE TIGHT GRADIENT SYSTEMS TO OVER
PERFORM (I.E. LAST NIGHT`S SNOWFALL)...HAVE TO REALLY WATCH THESE AS
THEY APPROACH. AT THE MOMENT...STILL LOOKING LIKE ONE WEAK WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKISH FGEN WILL SKIRT THE AREA LATER SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ONE NOW ADVERTISED INTO SUNDAY. THERMALLY SPEAKING...LOOKS
CHILLY ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT LOTS OF TIME TO FINE TUNE
THOSE DETAILS.

BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED HINTS
OF FAIRLY STRONG PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS LIFTING A WARM FRONT UP TOWARD
THE LOWER LAKES...ALL WHILE THE COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THAT SHOULD PUT THE SQUEEZE PLAY ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH
SEVERAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALONG A RATHER TIGHT
GRADIENT. NOT SURPRISINGLY IN THIS SETUP...MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE BEST GRADIENT/FGEN RESPONSE...WHICH WILL
HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON WHAT TYPE(S) OF WEATHER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EXPERIENCES. IT COULD BE ANYTHING FROM CONVECTION TO MIXED PRECIP
(FREEZING RAIN?) TO EVEN JUST PLAIN SNOW...OR ALL OF THE ABOVE.
HISTORICALLY...THIS TYPE OF SETUP HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE SOME
DECENT LATE SEASON SNOWS UP THIS WAY BUT LOTS OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
ALL UNFOLD. OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THE FACT THAT TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PLN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD MVFR AT APN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AT
TVC/MBL...PERHAPS SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS TO START THE DAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY FLAT
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...BUT THAT WILL CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SYNOPTIC WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.  LOCAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS WILL IMPACT WIND WITHIN INDIVIDUAL
NEARSHORE ZONES WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD AN ONSHORE COMPONENT (OR AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT WE TEND TO SEE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS WITH STRONG CROSS-ISOBARIC FLOW). WILL ISSUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND FOR
NORTHWEST LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES FOR NOW...WILL
PROBABLY NEED THEM IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010848
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
448 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...NICE DAY FOR SOME/INCREASING PRECIP THREAT FOR OTHERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT. "SNEAKY" WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
FOR EASTERN UPPER LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: APRIL COMMENCES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEPARTING NORTHEAST LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDNIGHT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW (1014MB) OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN WAS RELATIVELY
FLAT...INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS WHERE A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA.  50+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS/PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP TO THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER.
ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WERE
PUSHING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  THIS IS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS THE ENDING OF OUR EARLIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME CLEARING HAS
WORKED INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTING THIS
MORNING...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.  WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: EARLY CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  POSSIBILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TODAY...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TO START THE DAY...ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  LOWER CLOUD
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO THIN WITH TIME THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALTOCUMULUS.  INTERESTING
SIGNAL IN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN/POSSIBLY INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF WEAKER STATIC STABILITY.  THE IMPLICATION IS A THICKENING
CLOUD BAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...MAY BE MORE OF A VIRGA
STORM THE FARTHER SOUTH BELOW THE BRIDGE ONE GOES).  PRECIP TYPE
COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL.  SHOULD BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH LOWER-MID 50S
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS
"BENDS" ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.  SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SHOWING
SOME INTERESTING POTENTIAL WITH DECENT PROBABILITIES OF 0.25-0.50
INCH LIQUID ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT SHOULD
TEND TO SWITCH PRECIP TOWARD MORE LIQUID...THOUGH EARLY-MID EVENING
STILL COULD SEE SNOW OR POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE FLIRTING WITH
THE FREEZING MARK.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...COULD BE SOME SNEAKY
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IF THINGS COME TOGETHER.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET 60+KTS WILL FOCUS ON MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
TILTING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN.  THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO ANY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL RUN THIS POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...WILL BE PRETTY STABLE SO
WON`T BE TAPPING INTO THE 60+KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
TO BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MECHANICAL MIXING TO ALLOW FOR
GUSTS 20-30MPH (AND HIGHER ALONG NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL (HEY IT IS
APRIL AFTER ALL). INTENTLY WATCHING PESKY SECONDARY WAVE POTENTIAL
LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT THERE COULD BE
A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AT LEAST PART OF NORTHERN LOWER.

WELL NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WE SURVIVED THE 6TH MONTH OF WINTER AS
MARCH HAS COME TO A CLOSE. THAT MEANS IT`S TIME TO TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO WARMER WEATHER AND SPRING-LIKE THOUGHTS...AND INDEED
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE JUST SUCH CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AND THERE`S
ALWAYS A HOWEVER HERE IN THE NORTHERN LAKES...DON`T GET USED TO IT
WITH A SOLID TREND TOWARD WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO
FRIDAY AND BEYOND. YUCK! OH WELL...LET`S GET TO IT...

OUR WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE ITS
APPROACH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TENDING TO
SLOW ITS PASSAGE BY A FEW HOURS INTO THE MIDDAY PERIOD. ALMOST
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SITUATION AROUND 18Z
FOLLOWED BY THE "TRUE" COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING...OF COURSE
USHERING IN OUR NEXT SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER. FROM A MOISTURE
STANDPOINT...STILL LOOKS OUTSTANDING WITH AN AXIS OF 1+" PWATS
ROLLING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED
BY A MODEST AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY TIED TO A RESPECTABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET CIRCULATION WORKING
BASICALLY OVERHEAD. AXIS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
NATURALLY TEND TO DESTABILIZE THINGS...WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES
PERHAPS PUSHING 600 J/KG OR SO IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

COUPLE THAT WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR PROFILES UP IN THE 50 KNOT RANGE
AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AND STILL HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE IS A SHOT
WE COULD THROW OUT SOME SMALLER HAILSTONES FROM ANY HEAVIER CORES.
THE ONLY THING LACKING IS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SO DON`T SEE ANY
REAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TEMPS TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH
EASTERN AREAS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT WELL INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER
60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE STEADIER RAINS/CLOUDS PROBABLY
HOLD NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS DOWN IN THE 40S...PROBABLY EVEN
DIPPING INTO THE 30S LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION
AND ENHANCEMENT FROM THE COLD LAKE WATERS. SPEAKING OF SUCH
THINGS...MIGHT BE DEALING WITH SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME
GIVEN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 40S
OVER LOW/MID 30S WATER TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION.

LOOKING RATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY AS SHARP
DRYING ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE WHILE WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING FOLDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE. BIG
QUESTIONS THEN ARISE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH REGARD TO A
MORE ROBUST PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND LIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. 12Z GUIDANCE
SUITE STRONGLY TRENDED THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD...TO THE POINT WHERE A BROADER PRECIP SHIELD MAY
WELL TRY TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER. NOT REALLY SURE I
AGREE WITH THIS IDEA GIVEN THE FLAT LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW (INDEED
00Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING BACK SOUTH)...BUT IF ANY PLACE HAS A SHOT
IT WOULD BE AREAS CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY...WITH SUFFICIENT COLD AIR
INTACT OVER THE AREA TO DRIVE A MAINLY ALL SNOW EVENT. NOT READY TO
PUT ALL MY EGGS IN THAT BASKET JUST YET (POOR EASTER JOKE...SORRY)
BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS OUR WAVE IS MUCH BETTER SAMPLED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE ROLL THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND AND
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
WAVES EXPECTED INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY A MUCH MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. HONESTLY HAVE TO ADMIT THAT MY
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF WEAKER SYSTEMS
THIS WEEKEND WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY NOTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN
OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR THESE TIGHT GRADIENT SYSTEMS TO OVER
PERFORM (I.E. LAST NIGHT`S SNOWFALL)...HAVE TO REALLY WATCH THESE AS
THEY APPROACH. AT THE MOMENT...STILL LOOKING LIKE ONE WEAK WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKISH FGEN WILL SKIRT THE AREA LATER SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ONE NOW ADVERTISED INTO SUNDAY. THERMALLY SPEAKING...LOOKS
CHILLY ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT LOTS OF TIME TO FINE TUNE
THOSE DETAILS.

BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED HINTS
OF FAIRLY STRONG PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS LIFTING A WARM FRONT UP TOWARD
THE LOWER LAKES...ALL WHILE THE COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THAT SHOULD PUT THE SQUEEZE PLAY ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH
SEVERAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALONG A RATHER TIGHT
GRADIENT. NOT SURPRISINGLY IN THIS SETUP...MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE BEST GRADIENT/FGEN RESPONSE...WHICH WILL
HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON WHAT TYPE(S) OF WEATHER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EXPERIENCES. IT COULD BE ANYTHING FROM CONVECTION TO MIXED PRECIP
(FREEZING RAIN?) TO EVEN JUST PLAIN SNOW...OR ALL OF THE ABOVE.
HISTORICALLY...THIS TYPE OF SETUP HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE SOME
DECENT LATE SEASON SNOWS UP THIS WAY BUT LOTS OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
ALL UNFOLD. OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THE FACT THAT TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PLN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD MVFR AT APN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AT
TVC/MBL...PERHAPS SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS TO START THE DAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY FLAT
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...BUT THAT WILL CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SYNOPTIC WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.  LOCAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS WILL IMPACT WIND WITHIN INDIVIDUAL
NEARSHORE ZONES WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD AN ONSHORE COMPONENT (OR AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT WE TEND TO SEE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS WITH STRONG CROSS-ISOBARIC FLOW). WILL ISSUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND FOR
NORTHWEST LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES FOR NOW...WILL
PROBABLY NEED THEM IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010848
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
448 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...NICE DAY FOR SOME/INCREASING PRECIP THREAT FOR OTHERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT. "SNEAKY" WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
FOR EASTERN UPPER LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: APRIL COMMENCES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEPARTING NORTHEAST LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDNIGHT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW (1014MB) OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN WAS RELATIVELY
FLAT...INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS WHERE A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA.  50+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS/PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP TO THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER.
ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WERE
PUSHING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  THIS IS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS THE ENDING OF OUR EARLIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME CLEARING HAS
WORKED INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTING THIS
MORNING...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.  WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: EARLY CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  POSSIBILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TODAY...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TO START THE DAY...ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  LOWER CLOUD
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO THIN WITH TIME THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALTOCUMULUS.  INTERESTING
SIGNAL IN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN/POSSIBLY INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF WEAKER STATIC STABILITY.  THE IMPLICATION IS A THICKENING
CLOUD BAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...MAY BE MORE OF A VIRGA
STORM THE FARTHER SOUTH BELOW THE BRIDGE ONE GOES).  PRECIP TYPE
COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL.  SHOULD BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH LOWER-MID 50S
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS
"BENDS" ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.  SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SHOWING
SOME INTERESTING POTENTIAL WITH DECENT PROBABILITIES OF 0.25-0.50
INCH LIQUID ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT SHOULD
TEND TO SWITCH PRECIP TOWARD MORE LIQUID...THOUGH EARLY-MID EVENING
STILL COULD SEE SNOW OR POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE FLIRTING WITH
THE FREEZING MARK.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...COULD BE SOME SNEAKY
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IF THINGS COME TOGETHER.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET 60+KTS WILL FOCUS ON MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
TILTING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN.  THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO ANY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL RUN THIS POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...WILL BE PRETTY STABLE SO
WON`T BE TAPPING INTO THE 60+KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
TO BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MECHANICAL MIXING TO ALLOW FOR
GUSTS 20-30MPH (AND HIGHER ALONG NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL (HEY IT IS
APRIL AFTER ALL). INTENTLY WATCHING PESKY SECONDARY WAVE POTENTIAL
LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT THERE COULD BE
A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AT LEAST PART OF NORTHERN LOWER.

WELL NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WE SURVIVED THE 6TH MONTH OF WINTER AS
MARCH HAS COME TO A CLOSE. THAT MEANS IT`S TIME TO TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO WARMER WEATHER AND SPRING-LIKE THOUGHTS...AND INDEED
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE JUST SUCH CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AND THERE`S
ALWAYS A HOWEVER HERE IN THE NORTHERN LAKES...DON`T GET USED TO IT
WITH A SOLID TREND TOWARD WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO
FRIDAY AND BEYOND. YUCK! OH WELL...LET`S GET TO IT...

OUR WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE ITS
APPROACH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TENDING TO
SLOW ITS PASSAGE BY A FEW HOURS INTO THE MIDDAY PERIOD. ALMOST
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SITUATION AROUND 18Z
FOLLOWED BY THE "TRUE" COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING...OF COURSE
USHERING IN OUR NEXT SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER. FROM A MOISTURE
STANDPOINT...STILL LOOKS OUTSTANDING WITH AN AXIS OF 1+" PWATS
ROLLING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED
BY A MODEST AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY TIED TO A RESPECTABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET CIRCULATION WORKING
BASICALLY OVERHEAD. AXIS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
NATURALLY TEND TO DESTABILIZE THINGS...WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES
PERHAPS PUSHING 600 J/KG OR SO IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

COUPLE THAT WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR PROFILES UP IN THE 50 KNOT RANGE
AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AND STILL HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE IS A SHOT
WE COULD THROW OUT SOME SMALLER HAILSTONES FROM ANY HEAVIER CORES.
THE ONLY THING LACKING IS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SO DON`T SEE ANY
REAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TEMPS TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH
EASTERN AREAS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT WELL INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER
60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE STEADIER RAINS/CLOUDS PROBABLY
HOLD NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS DOWN IN THE 40S...PROBABLY EVEN
DIPPING INTO THE 30S LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION
AND ENHANCEMENT FROM THE COLD LAKE WATERS. SPEAKING OF SUCH
THINGS...MIGHT BE DEALING WITH SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME
GIVEN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 40S
OVER LOW/MID 30S WATER TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION.

LOOKING RATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY AS SHARP
DRYING ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE WHILE WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING FOLDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE. BIG
QUESTIONS THEN ARISE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH REGARD TO A
MORE ROBUST PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND LIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. 12Z GUIDANCE
SUITE STRONGLY TRENDED THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD...TO THE POINT WHERE A BROADER PRECIP SHIELD MAY
WELL TRY TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER. NOT REALLY SURE I
AGREE WITH THIS IDEA GIVEN THE FLAT LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW (INDEED
00Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING BACK SOUTH)...BUT IF ANY PLACE HAS A SHOT
IT WOULD BE AREAS CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY...WITH SUFFICIENT COLD AIR
INTACT OVER THE AREA TO DRIVE A MAINLY ALL SNOW EVENT. NOT READY TO
PUT ALL MY EGGS IN THAT BASKET JUST YET (POOR EASTER JOKE...SORRY)
BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS OUR WAVE IS MUCH BETTER SAMPLED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE ROLL THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND AND
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
WAVES EXPECTED INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY A MUCH MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. HONESTLY HAVE TO ADMIT THAT MY
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF WEAKER SYSTEMS
THIS WEEKEND WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY NOTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN
OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR THESE TIGHT GRADIENT SYSTEMS TO OVER
PERFORM (I.E. LAST NIGHT`S SNOWFALL)...HAVE TO REALLY WATCH THESE AS
THEY APPROACH. AT THE MOMENT...STILL LOOKING LIKE ONE WEAK WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKISH FGEN WILL SKIRT THE AREA LATER SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ONE NOW ADVERTISED INTO SUNDAY. THERMALLY SPEAKING...LOOKS
CHILLY ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT LOTS OF TIME TO FINE TUNE
THOSE DETAILS.

BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED HINTS
OF FAIRLY STRONG PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS LIFTING A WARM FRONT UP TOWARD
THE LOWER LAKES...ALL WHILE THE COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THAT SHOULD PUT THE SQUEEZE PLAY ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH
SEVERAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALONG A RATHER TIGHT
GRADIENT. NOT SURPRISINGLY IN THIS SETUP...MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE BEST GRADIENT/FGEN RESPONSE...WHICH WILL
HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON WHAT TYPE(S) OF WEATHER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EXPERIENCES. IT COULD BE ANYTHING FROM CONVECTION TO MIXED PRECIP
(FREEZING RAIN?) TO EVEN JUST PLAIN SNOW...OR ALL OF THE ABOVE.
HISTORICALLY...THIS TYPE OF SETUP HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE SOME
DECENT LATE SEASON SNOWS UP THIS WAY BUT LOTS OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
ALL UNFOLD. OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THE FACT THAT TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PLN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD MVFR AT APN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AT
TVC/MBL...PERHAPS SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS TO START THE DAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY FLAT
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...BUT THAT WILL CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SYNOPTIC WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.  LOCAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS WILL IMPACT WIND WITHIN INDIVIDUAL
NEARSHORE ZONES WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD AN ONSHORE COMPONENT (OR AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT WE TEND TO SEE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS WITH STRONG CROSS-ISOBARIC FLOW). WILL ISSUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND FOR
NORTHWEST LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES FOR NOW...WILL
PROBABLY NEED THEM IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 010747
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SLIDING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CLEARING TREND OVER SE MICHIGAN AS THE MODEST SURFACE
PRESSURE REFLECTION FILLS. THE EXCEPTION TO MONITOR WILL BE IN THE
THUMB WHERE MID CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO EXIT AND WHERE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE INFLUENCED STRATOCU WILL OCCUR DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A
GENEROUS AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TO AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREAT LAKES AND SE MICHIGAN WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LARGER SCALE WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND
TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SET TO PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
BIAS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TOWARD AN EASTERLY DIRECTION UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH WILL ADD SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICAL SHORELINE AND DOWNRIVER AREAS. THE
THUMB SHORELINE WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 40S...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR OVERACHIEVEMENT THROUGH INTERIOR AREAS BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WARMING COMPARED TO HOW WELL READINGS RESPONDED TO
AFTERNOON SUN YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
CONTEND WITH DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN THAT IS HELPING DRIVE THE RIDGE EASTWARD. MODEL RH
FIELDS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE TRI CITIES AND
NORTHERN THUMB LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR MAX TEMPS TO TOUCH 60
INTERIOR TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.

THE MAIN THEME FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND OVER THE REGION DRIVEN BY THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING OVER OUR AREA WILL DEVELOP
NORTHWARD AS WELL BEFORE THICKENING FROM THE WEST LATE. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD THEN HAS THE LOOK OF LATE EVENING MIN
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S THUMB TO MID 40S INTERIOR RISING OVERNIGHT
TOWARD 50 INTERIOR AND WELL BACK INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

A BUSY END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH THE FOCI OF THE FORECAST
INVOLVING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY.

THE PROGRESSIVE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY. IN
RAPID SUCCESSION...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW TO ENCROACH UPON CWA FROM THE WEST.
POINT OF CONTENTION FOR THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. STILL POOR INTER-MODEL
AGREEMENT ON ONSET WITH MODELS SEEMINGLY HALF AND HALF ON WHETHER
OR NOT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN BEFORE NOON. STILL PREFER A DRY
MORNING BEFORE POPS RAMP UP SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
REASONS ARE: UPSTREAM ELEVATED NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN AT 12Z...WILL NEED TIME TO PUSH OUT
RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE RIDGING/DRY AIR...AND EASTERN EDGE OF JET
ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE NOT FORECASTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THINGS LOOK GOOD FROM A PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PERSPECTIVE AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TRIGGER IN A WIDE RANGING OCCLUDED FRONT
STRUCTURE. NAM IS STILL SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 700 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...HOWEVER...RAW DATA IS ALSO SUGGESTING A SFC DEWPOINT OF
BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES. THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY OVERZEALOUS
AND STUCK CLOSER TO THE OFFERED MOS VALUES OF THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES. STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-600MB CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEPTH OF MOISTURE (PWATS OF
1.25-1.30 INCHES) AND LOW COLUMN STABILITY IS ALL LINING UP FOR
WHAT COULD BE A WINDOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE LARGE NEGATIVE
WILL BE WORKING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE STORM MOTION TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST AT 55 TO 60 KNOTS. LATEST SWODY2 KEEPS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN UNDER A DESIGNATION OF MARGINAL.

THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POSITIONED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND PV ANOMALY IS ALSO FORECASTED
TO EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
REALLY DO SHOW AN ORGANIZED COUPLING OF THIS TRAILING JET STREAK
WITH THE MAIN BRANCH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE START.
EVOLUTION OF THIS COUPLING JET STRUCTURE ONLY INCREASES IN STRENGTH
MOVING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LEAD/GREAT LAKES BRANCH UNDERGOES
A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PV PHASING OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TIPS THE SCALES INTO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY. A GOOD FRONTAL WAVE SETUP WITH A SWATH
OF DEFORMATION SNOWFALL STRIPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEEPENING LOW CENTER. THERE STILL REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODEL DATA ON WHETHER OR NOT A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER SEMICH. PATTERN RECOGNITION
SUGGESTS THE BOOK HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN YET AS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH DUE TO A
GREATER SOUTHERN PV CONTRIBUTION FROM CONVECTION/LATENT HEAT
RELEASE. THE MOVE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO INCREMENTALLY
INCREASE POPS WHILE INTRODUCING A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. CERTAINLY A TIME PERIOD TO WATCH FOR
FORECAST EVOLUTION.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY
WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

AREA OF MID CLOUD /5 TO 8K FT/ ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
MOISTURE MAY GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES AT MBS/FNT/PTK...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.   THIS CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW FOG.  A LIMITED COVERAGE OF LOWER VFR
STRATOCUMULUS FOR WEDNESDAY AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY/STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TAKES HOLD UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

FOR DTW...TERMINAL WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INBOUND CLOUD DECK EARLY THIS MORNING.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF CEILING IN
THE VICINITY OF 5000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 010747
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SLIDING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CLEARING TREND OVER SE MICHIGAN AS THE MODEST SURFACE
PRESSURE REFLECTION FILLS. THE EXCEPTION TO MONITOR WILL BE IN THE
THUMB WHERE MID CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO EXIT AND WHERE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE INFLUENCED STRATOCU WILL OCCUR DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A
GENEROUS AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TO AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREAT LAKES AND SE MICHIGAN WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LARGER SCALE WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND
TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SET TO PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
BIAS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TOWARD AN EASTERLY DIRECTION UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH WILL ADD SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICAL SHORELINE AND DOWNRIVER AREAS. THE
THUMB SHORELINE WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 40S...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR OVERACHIEVEMENT THROUGH INTERIOR AREAS BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WARMING COMPARED TO HOW WELL READINGS RESPONDED TO
AFTERNOON SUN YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
CONTEND WITH DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN THAT IS HELPING DRIVE THE RIDGE EASTWARD. MODEL RH
FIELDS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE TRI CITIES AND
NORTHERN THUMB LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR MAX TEMPS TO TOUCH 60
INTERIOR TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.

THE MAIN THEME FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND OVER THE REGION DRIVEN BY THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING OVER OUR AREA WILL DEVELOP
NORTHWARD AS WELL BEFORE THICKENING FROM THE WEST LATE. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD THEN HAS THE LOOK OF LATE EVENING MIN
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S THUMB TO MID 40S INTERIOR RISING OVERNIGHT
TOWARD 50 INTERIOR AND WELL BACK INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

A BUSY END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH THE FOCI OF THE FORECAST
INVOLVING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY.

THE PROGRESSIVE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY. IN
RAPID SUCCESSION...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW TO ENCROACH UPON CWA FROM THE WEST.
POINT OF CONTENTION FOR THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. STILL POOR INTER-MODEL
AGREEMENT ON ONSET WITH MODELS SEEMINGLY HALF AND HALF ON WHETHER
OR NOT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN BEFORE NOON. STILL PREFER A DRY
MORNING BEFORE POPS RAMP UP SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
REASONS ARE: UPSTREAM ELEVATED NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN AT 12Z...WILL NEED TIME TO PUSH OUT
RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE RIDGING/DRY AIR...AND EASTERN EDGE OF JET
ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE NOT FORECASTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THINGS LOOK GOOD FROM A PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PERSPECTIVE AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TRIGGER IN A WIDE RANGING OCCLUDED FRONT
STRUCTURE. NAM IS STILL SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 700 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...HOWEVER...RAW DATA IS ALSO SUGGESTING A SFC DEWPOINT OF
BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES. THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY OVERZEALOUS
AND STUCK CLOSER TO THE OFFERED MOS VALUES OF THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES. STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-600MB CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEPTH OF MOISTURE (PWATS OF
1.25-1.30 INCHES) AND LOW COLUMN STABILITY IS ALL LINING UP FOR
WHAT COULD BE A WINDOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE LARGE NEGATIVE
WILL BE WORKING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE STORM MOTION TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST AT 55 TO 60 KNOTS. LATEST SWODY2 KEEPS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN UNDER A DESIGNATION OF MARGINAL.

THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POSITIONED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND PV ANOMALY IS ALSO FORECASTED
TO EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
REALLY DO SHOW AN ORGANIZED COUPLING OF THIS TRAILING JET STREAK
WITH THE MAIN BRANCH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE START.
EVOLUTION OF THIS COUPLING JET STRUCTURE ONLY INCREASES IN STRENGTH
MOVING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LEAD/GREAT LAKES BRANCH UNDERGOES
A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PV PHASING OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TIPS THE SCALES INTO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY. A GOOD FRONTAL WAVE SETUP WITH A SWATH
OF DEFORMATION SNOWFALL STRIPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEEPENING LOW CENTER. THERE STILL REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODEL DATA ON WHETHER OR NOT A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER SEMICH. PATTERN RECOGNITION
SUGGESTS THE BOOK HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN YET AS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH DUE TO A
GREATER SOUTHERN PV CONTRIBUTION FROM CONVECTION/LATENT HEAT
RELEASE. THE MOVE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO INCREMENTALLY
INCREASE POPS WHILE INTRODUCING A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. CERTAINLY A TIME PERIOD TO WATCH FOR
FORECAST EVOLUTION.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY
WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

AREA OF MID CLOUD /5 TO 8K FT/ ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
MOISTURE MAY GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES AT MBS/FNT/PTK...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.   THIS CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW FOG.  A LIMITED COVERAGE OF LOWER VFR
STRATOCUMULUS FOR WEDNESDAY AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY/STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TAKES HOLD UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

FOR DTW...TERMINAL WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INBOUND CLOUD DECK EARLY THIS MORNING.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF CEILING IN
THE VICINITY OF 5000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 010747
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SLIDING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CLEARING TREND OVER SE MICHIGAN AS THE MODEST SURFACE
PRESSURE REFLECTION FILLS. THE EXCEPTION TO MONITOR WILL BE IN THE
THUMB WHERE MID CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO EXIT AND WHERE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE INFLUENCED STRATOCU WILL OCCUR DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A
GENEROUS AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TO AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREAT LAKES AND SE MICHIGAN WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LARGER SCALE WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND
TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SET TO PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
BIAS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TOWARD AN EASTERLY DIRECTION UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH WILL ADD SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICAL SHORELINE AND DOWNRIVER AREAS. THE
THUMB SHORELINE WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 40S...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR OVERACHIEVEMENT THROUGH INTERIOR AREAS BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WARMING COMPARED TO HOW WELL READINGS RESPONDED TO
AFTERNOON SUN YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
CONTEND WITH DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN THAT IS HELPING DRIVE THE RIDGE EASTWARD. MODEL RH
FIELDS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE TRI CITIES AND
NORTHERN THUMB LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR MAX TEMPS TO TOUCH 60
INTERIOR TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.

THE MAIN THEME FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND OVER THE REGION DRIVEN BY THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING OVER OUR AREA WILL DEVELOP
NORTHWARD AS WELL BEFORE THICKENING FROM THE WEST LATE. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD THEN HAS THE LOOK OF LATE EVENING MIN
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S THUMB TO MID 40S INTERIOR RISING OVERNIGHT
TOWARD 50 INTERIOR AND WELL BACK INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

A BUSY END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH THE FOCI OF THE FORECAST
INVOLVING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY.

THE PROGRESSIVE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY. IN
RAPID SUCCESSION...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW TO ENCROACH UPON CWA FROM THE WEST.
POINT OF CONTENTION FOR THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. STILL POOR INTER-MODEL
AGREEMENT ON ONSET WITH MODELS SEEMINGLY HALF AND HALF ON WHETHER
OR NOT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN BEFORE NOON. STILL PREFER A DRY
MORNING BEFORE POPS RAMP UP SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
REASONS ARE: UPSTREAM ELEVATED NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN AT 12Z...WILL NEED TIME TO PUSH OUT
RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE RIDGING/DRY AIR...AND EASTERN EDGE OF JET
ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE NOT FORECASTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THINGS LOOK GOOD FROM A PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PERSPECTIVE AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TRIGGER IN A WIDE RANGING OCCLUDED FRONT
STRUCTURE. NAM IS STILL SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 700 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...HOWEVER...RAW DATA IS ALSO SUGGESTING A SFC DEWPOINT OF
BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES. THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY OVERZEALOUS
AND STUCK CLOSER TO THE OFFERED MOS VALUES OF THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES. STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-600MB CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEPTH OF MOISTURE (PWATS OF
1.25-1.30 INCHES) AND LOW COLUMN STABILITY IS ALL LINING UP FOR
WHAT COULD BE A WINDOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE LARGE NEGATIVE
WILL BE WORKING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE STORM MOTION TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST AT 55 TO 60 KNOTS. LATEST SWODY2 KEEPS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN UNDER A DESIGNATION OF MARGINAL.

THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POSITIONED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND PV ANOMALY IS ALSO FORECASTED
TO EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
REALLY DO SHOW AN ORGANIZED COUPLING OF THIS TRAILING JET STREAK
WITH THE MAIN BRANCH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE START.
EVOLUTION OF THIS COUPLING JET STRUCTURE ONLY INCREASES IN STRENGTH
MOVING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LEAD/GREAT LAKES BRANCH UNDERGOES
A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PV PHASING OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TIPS THE SCALES INTO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY. A GOOD FRONTAL WAVE SETUP WITH A SWATH
OF DEFORMATION SNOWFALL STRIPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEEPENING LOW CENTER. THERE STILL REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODEL DATA ON WHETHER OR NOT A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER SEMICH. PATTERN RECOGNITION
SUGGESTS THE BOOK HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN YET AS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH DUE TO A
GREATER SOUTHERN PV CONTRIBUTION FROM CONVECTION/LATENT HEAT
RELEASE. THE MOVE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO INCREMENTALLY
INCREASE POPS WHILE INTRODUCING A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. CERTAINLY A TIME PERIOD TO WATCH FOR
FORECAST EVOLUTION.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY
WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

AREA OF MID CLOUD /5 TO 8K FT/ ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
MOISTURE MAY GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES AT MBS/FNT/PTK...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.   THIS CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW FOG.  A LIMITED COVERAGE OF LOWER VFR
STRATOCUMULUS FOR WEDNESDAY AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY/STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TAKES HOLD UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

FOR DTW...TERMINAL WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INBOUND CLOUD DECK EARLY THIS MORNING.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF CEILING IN
THE VICINITY OF 5000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010747
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SLIDING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CLEARING TREND OVER SE MICHIGAN AS THE MODEST SURFACE
PRESSURE REFLECTION FILLS. THE EXCEPTION TO MONITOR WILL BE IN THE
THUMB WHERE MID CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO EXIT AND WHERE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE INFLUENCED STRATOCU WILL OCCUR DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A
GENEROUS AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TO AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREAT LAKES AND SE MICHIGAN WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LARGER SCALE WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND
TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SET TO PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
BIAS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TOWARD AN EASTERLY DIRECTION UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH WILL ADD SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICAL SHORELINE AND DOWNRIVER AREAS. THE
THUMB SHORELINE WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 40S...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR OVERACHIEVEMENT THROUGH INTERIOR AREAS BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WARMING COMPARED TO HOW WELL READINGS RESPONDED TO
AFTERNOON SUN YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
CONTEND WITH DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN THAT IS HELPING DRIVE THE RIDGE EASTWARD. MODEL RH
FIELDS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE TRI CITIES AND
NORTHERN THUMB LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR MAX TEMPS TO TOUCH 60
INTERIOR TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.

THE MAIN THEME FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND OVER THE REGION DRIVEN BY THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING OVER OUR AREA WILL DEVELOP
NORTHWARD AS WELL BEFORE THICKENING FROM THE WEST LATE. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD THEN HAS THE LOOK OF LATE EVENING MIN
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S THUMB TO MID 40S INTERIOR RISING OVERNIGHT
TOWARD 50 INTERIOR AND WELL BACK INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

A BUSY END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH THE FOCI OF THE FORECAST
INVOLVING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY.

THE PROGRESSIVE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY. IN
RAPID SUCCESSION...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW TO ENCROACH UPON CWA FROM THE WEST.
POINT OF CONTENTION FOR THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. STILL POOR INTER-MODEL
AGREEMENT ON ONSET WITH MODELS SEEMINGLY HALF AND HALF ON WHETHER
OR NOT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN BEFORE NOON. STILL PREFER A DRY
MORNING BEFORE POPS RAMP UP SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
REASONS ARE: UPSTREAM ELEVATED NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN AT 12Z...WILL NEED TIME TO PUSH OUT
RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE RIDGING/DRY AIR...AND EASTERN EDGE OF JET
ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE NOT FORECASTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THINGS LOOK GOOD FROM A PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PERSPECTIVE AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TRIGGER IN A WIDE RANGING OCCLUDED FRONT
STRUCTURE. NAM IS STILL SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 700 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...HOWEVER...RAW DATA IS ALSO SUGGESTING A SFC DEWPOINT OF
BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES. THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY OVERZEALOUS
AND STUCK CLOSER TO THE OFFERED MOS VALUES OF THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES. STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-600MB CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEPTH OF MOISTURE (PWATS OF
1.25-1.30 INCHES) AND LOW COLUMN STABILITY IS ALL LINING UP FOR
WHAT COULD BE A WINDOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE LARGE NEGATIVE
WILL BE WORKING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE STORM MOTION TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST AT 55 TO 60 KNOTS. LATEST SWODY2 KEEPS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN UNDER A DESIGNATION OF MARGINAL.

THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POSITIONED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND PV ANOMALY IS ALSO FORECASTED
TO EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
REALLY DO SHOW AN ORGANIZED COUPLING OF THIS TRAILING JET STREAK
WITH THE MAIN BRANCH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE START.
EVOLUTION OF THIS COUPLING JET STRUCTURE ONLY INCREASES IN STRENGTH
MOVING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LEAD/GREAT LAKES BRANCH UNDERGOES
A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PV PHASING OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TIPS THE SCALES INTO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY. A GOOD FRONTAL WAVE SETUP WITH A SWATH
OF DEFORMATION SNOWFALL STRIPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEEPENING LOW CENTER. THERE STILL REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODEL DATA ON WHETHER OR NOT A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER SEMICH. PATTERN RECOGNITION
SUGGESTS THE BOOK HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN YET AS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH DUE TO A
GREATER SOUTHERN PV CONTRIBUTION FROM CONVECTION/LATENT HEAT
RELEASE. THE MOVE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO INCREMENTALLY
INCREASE POPS WHILE INTRODUCING A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. CERTAINLY A TIME PERIOD TO WATCH FOR
FORECAST EVOLUTION.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY
WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

AREA OF MID CLOUD /5 TO 8K FT/ ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
MOISTURE MAY GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES AT MBS/FNT/PTK...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.   THIS CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW FOG.  A LIMITED COVERAGE OF LOWER VFR
STRATOCUMULUS FOR WEDNESDAY AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY/STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TAKES HOLD UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

FOR DTW...TERMINAL WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INBOUND CLOUD DECK EARLY THIS MORNING.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF CEILING IN
THE VICINITY OF 5000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THIS MORNING AS SLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A 994MB SFC LOW
OVER WRN ND AND A SFC HIGH E OF THE CWA. WAA PICKS UP THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING APPRECIABLE
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER
FROM 925MB TO 700MB. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN WI/WRN
UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONVECTION THEN SHOULD MOVE ENE AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS E WHILE WEAKENING. ONLY INCLUDED MENTIONS OF THUNDER ALONG
THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSION OF CONVECTION TO
THE SW SHOULD LIMIT CAPE FROM DEVELOPING FARTHER N. SOME OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI SEEING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH
SHIFT QUICKLY E AND INCREASE WAA/FORCING BECOMES A GREATER
FACTOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE LOSS OF FORCING DUE TO THE
THROUGH WEAKENING. PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ERN HALF OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THU...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS FOR
AFTER 12Z THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 50KTS FROM THE S-SW. HIGHEST SFC GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR W AT IRONWOOD AND VICINITY WHERE LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST DUE TO THE BEST SFC WARMING. WITH COOLING OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST...GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET UP TO AROUND 60F OVER THE FAR
W...REDUCED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY CENTRAL UPPER MI DUE TO SSE-
SE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER. OVER ERN
UPPER MI...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS DOWNWIND EFFECT
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS MORE PRONOUNCED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.
LOWS TONIGHT ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THIS MORNING AS SLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A 994MB SFC LOW
OVER WRN ND AND A SFC HIGH E OF THE CWA. WAA PICKS UP THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING APPRECIABLE
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER
FROM 925MB TO 700MB. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN WI/WRN
UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONVECTION THEN SHOULD MOVE ENE AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS E WHILE WEAKENING. ONLY INCLUDED MENTIONS OF THUNDER ALONG
THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSION OF CONVECTION TO
THE SW SHOULD LIMIT CAPE FROM DEVELOPING FARTHER N. SOME OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI SEEING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH
SHIFT QUICKLY E AND INCREASE WAA/FORCING BECOMES A GREATER
FACTOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE LOSS OF FORCING DUE TO THE
THROUGH WEAKENING. PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ERN HALF OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THU...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS FOR
AFTER 12Z THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 50KTS FROM THE S-SW. HIGHEST SFC GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR W AT IRONWOOD AND VICINITY WHERE LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST DUE TO THE BEST SFC WARMING. WITH COOLING OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST...GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET UP TO AROUND 60F OVER THE FAR
W...REDUCED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY CENTRAL UPPER MI DUE TO SSE-
SE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER. OVER ERN
UPPER MI...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS DOWNWIND EFFECT
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS MORE PRONOUNCED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.
LOWS TONIGHT ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THIS MORNING AS SLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A 994MB SFC LOW
OVER WRN ND AND A SFC HIGH E OF THE CWA. WAA PICKS UP THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING APPRECIABLE
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER
FROM 925MB TO 700MB. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN WI/WRN
UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONVECTION THEN SHOULD MOVE ENE AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS E WHILE WEAKENING. ONLY INCLUDED MENTIONS OF THUNDER ALONG
THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSION OF CONVECTION TO
THE SW SHOULD LIMIT CAPE FROM DEVELOPING FARTHER N. SOME OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI SEEING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH
SHIFT QUICKLY E AND INCREASE WAA/FORCING BECOMES A GREATER
FACTOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE LOSS OF FORCING DUE TO THE
THROUGH WEAKENING. PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ERN HALF OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THU...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS FOR
AFTER 12Z THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 50KTS FROM THE S-SW. HIGHEST SFC GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR W AT IRONWOOD AND VICINITY WHERE LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST DUE TO THE BEST SFC WARMING. WITH COOLING OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST...GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET UP TO AROUND 60F OVER THE FAR
W...REDUCED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY CENTRAL UPPER MI DUE TO SSE-
SE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER. OVER ERN
UPPER MI...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS DOWNWIND EFFECT
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS MORE PRONOUNCED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.
LOWS TONIGHT ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THIS MORNING AS SLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A 994MB SFC LOW
OVER WRN ND AND A SFC HIGH E OF THE CWA. WAA PICKS UP THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING APPRECIABLE
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER
FROM 925MB TO 700MB. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN WI/WRN
UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONVECTION THEN SHOULD MOVE ENE AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS E WHILE WEAKENING. ONLY INCLUDED MENTIONS OF THUNDER ALONG
THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSION OF CONVECTION TO
THE SW SHOULD LIMIT CAPE FROM DEVELOPING FARTHER N. SOME OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI SEEING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH
SHIFT QUICKLY E AND INCREASE WAA/FORCING BECOMES A GREATER
FACTOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE LOSS OF FORCING DUE TO THE
THROUGH WEAKENING. PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ERN HALF OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THU...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS FOR
AFTER 12Z THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 50KTS FROM THE S-SW. HIGHEST SFC GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR W AT IRONWOOD AND VICINITY WHERE LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST DUE TO THE BEST SFC WARMING. WITH COOLING OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST...GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET UP TO AROUND 60F OVER THE FAR
W...REDUCED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY CENTRAL UPPER MI DUE TO SSE-
SE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER. OVER ERN
UPPER MI...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS DOWNWIND EFFECT
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS MORE PRONOUNCED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.
LOWS TONIGHT ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRR 010727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A PERIOD OF RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. MODERATE
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ON
THURSDAY. COOLER AIR FILTERS BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

A GORGEOUS WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

QUIET WEATHER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY AS A MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALLOWING H850 WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION INTENSIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT VIA A 55 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
COLD FRONT. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 09-12Z THURSDAY...HIGHEST AROUND 850 MB.
00Z NAM 850 LI VALUES INDICATE AROUND -5. CAPE IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...00Z GFS MLCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG PRESENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD PERK UP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY A BIT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS
IT SWEEPS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM WOULD BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS DECENT AND
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 40 KTS.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD BE
AROUND HALF AN INCH...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. A SECONDARY LEESIDE WAVE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE EXISTING SURFACE
TROUGH...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT IS A TRICKY FORECAST AS LOWER MICHIGAN IS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS A SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE PRECIP TO BE AT
LEAST A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING FRIDAY EVENING CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. IT
IS GONE BY SATURDAY NIGHT....BUT QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER
PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT
AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO IT.
THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOG AND STRATUS HAS BEEN HOLDING OFFSHORE AND LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT IT WILL ONLY MAKE A CLOSE APPROACH TO KMKG. NEW
FORECAST WILL REFLECT KEEPING THE IFR WEST OF KMKG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LARGELY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR WEATHER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-30 KTS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 010727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A PERIOD OF RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. MODERATE
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ON
THURSDAY. COOLER AIR FILTERS BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

A GORGEOUS WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

QUIET WEATHER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY AS A MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALLOWING H850 WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION INTENSIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT VIA A 55 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
COLD FRONT. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 09-12Z THURSDAY...HIGHEST AROUND 850 MB.
00Z NAM 850 LI VALUES INDICATE AROUND -5. CAPE IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...00Z GFS MLCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG PRESENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD PERK UP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY A BIT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS
IT SWEEPS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM WOULD BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS DECENT AND
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 40 KTS.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD BE
AROUND HALF AN INCH...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. A SECONDARY LEESIDE WAVE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE EXISTING SURFACE
TROUGH...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT IS A TRICKY FORECAST AS LOWER MICHIGAN IS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS A SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE PRECIP TO BE AT
LEAST A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING FRIDAY EVENING CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. IT
IS GONE BY SATURDAY NIGHT....BUT QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER
PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT
AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO IT.
THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOG AND STRATUS HAS BEEN HOLDING OFFSHORE AND LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT IT WILL ONLY MAKE A CLOSE APPROACH TO KMKG. NEW
FORECAST WILL REFLECT KEEPING THE IFR WEST OF KMKG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LARGELY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR WEATHER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-30 KTS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 010727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A PERIOD OF RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. MODERATE
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ON
THURSDAY. COOLER AIR FILTERS BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

A GORGEOUS WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

QUIET WEATHER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY AS A MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALLOWING H850 WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION INTENSIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT VIA A 55 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
COLD FRONT. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 09-12Z THURSDAY...HIGHEST AROUND 850 MB.
00Z NAM 850 LI VALUES INDICATE AROUND -5. CAPE IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...00Z GFS MLCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG PRESENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD PERK UP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY A BIT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS
IT SWEEPS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM WOULD BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS DECENT AND
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 40 KTS.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD BE
AROUND HALF AN INCH...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. A SECONDARY LEESIDE WAVE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE EXISTING SURFACE
TROUGH...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT IS A TRICKY FORECAST AS LOWER MICHIGAN IS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS A SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE PRECIP TO BE AT
LEAST A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING FRIDAY EVENING CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. IT
IS GONE BY SATURDAY NIGHT....BUT QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER
PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT
AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO IT.
THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOG AND STRATUS HAS BEEN HOLDING OFFSHORE AND LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT IT WILL ONLY MAKE A CLOSE APPROACH TO KMKG. NEW
FORECAST WILL REFLECT KEEPING THE IFR WEST OF KMKG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LARGELY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR WEATHER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-30 KTS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 010727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A PERIOD OF RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. MODERATE
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ON
THURSDAY. COOLER AIR FILTERS BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

A GORGEOUS WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

QUIET WEATHER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY AS A MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALLOWING H850 WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION INTENSIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT VIA A 55 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
COLD FRONT. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 09-12Z THURSDAY...HIGHEST AROUND 850 MB.
00Z NAM 850 LI VALUES INDICATE AROUND -5. CAPE IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...00Z GFS MLCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG PRESENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD PERK UP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY A BIT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS
IT SWEEPS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM WOULD BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS DECENT AND
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 40 KTS.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD BE
AROUND HALF AN INCH...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. A SECONDARY LEESIDE WAVE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE EXISTING SURFACE
TROUGH...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT IS A TRICKY FORECAST AS LOWER MICHIGAN IS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS A SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE PRECIP TO BE AT
LEAST A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING FRIDAY EVENING CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. IT
IS GONE BY SATURDAY NIGHT....BUT QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER
PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT
AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO IT.
THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOG AND STRATUS HAS BEEN HOLDING OFFSHORE AND LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT IT WILL ONLY MAKE A CLOSE APPROACH TO KMKG. NEW
FORECAST WILL REFLECT KEEPING THE IFR WEST OF KMKG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LARGELY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR WEATHER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-30 KTS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KAPX 010536
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN INTERESTING EVENING. DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN E CENTRAL WI (SW
OF GRB) HAS JUST ABOUT OPENED UP INTO A TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CONTINUES E AND NE OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND F-GEN FORCING. 00Z APX SOUNDING
HAD A NEAR-SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725 AND 600MB...WITH NEAR DRY-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER UP TO ALMOST
500MB.

AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP...MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IS
SWINGING THRU NW LOWER MI PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. BUT POPS WERE INTRODUCED/EXPANDED
THERE.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF FGEN-
ENHANCED SNOW FROM WESTERN MACKINAC CO TO NEAR HARRISVILLE. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY IS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH.
ACCUMS OF AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ENGADINE AND
MACKINAW CITY...THOSE AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE. HEAVIER/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN
CO...THOUGH THIS NARROW BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
MID-30S DBZ RETURNS ARE COMMON IN THIS AREA...STRONG SUPPORTING
BETTER THAN 1 INCH/HR SNOWS.

SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS. IF THIS WAS GOING TO LAST
FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER HOUR I WOULD POP AND ADVISORY FOR CHEBOYGANAND
PERHAPS SW PRESQUE ISLE. BUT THE INTENSITY WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 1030 PM. WILL INSTEAD LIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXPECTED 3-5
INCH ACCUMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN...FOREGO A
HEADLINE...AND REFRESH THE SPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED
INCREASING RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND
THE TIMING OUT OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PLN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD MVFR AT APN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AT
TVC/MBL...PERHAPS SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KAPX 010536
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN INTERESTING EVENING. DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN E CENTRAL WI (SW
OF GRB) HAS JUST ABOUT OPENED UP INTO A TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CONTINUES E AND NE OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND F-GEN FORCING. 00Z APX SOUNDING
HAD A NEAR-SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725 AND 600MB...WITH NEAR DRY-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER UP TO ALMOST
500MB.

AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP...MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IS
SWINGING THRU NW LOWER MI PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. BUT POPS WERE INTRODUCED/EXPANDED
THERE.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF FGEN-
ENHANCED SNOW FROM WESTERN MACKINAC CO TO NEAR HARRISVILLE. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY IS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH.
ACCUMS OF AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ENGADINE AND
MACKINAW CITY...THOSE AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE. HEAVIER/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN
CO...THOUGH THIS NARROW BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
MID-30S DBZ RETURNS ARE COMMON IN THIS AREA...STRONG SUPPORTING
BETTER THAN 1 INCH/HR SNOWS.

SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS. IF THIS WAS GOING TO LAST
FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER HOUR I WOULD POP AND ADVISORY FOR CHEBOYGANAND
PERHAPS SW PRESQUE ISLE. BUT THE INTENSITY WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 1030 PM. WILL INSTEAD LIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXPECTED 3-5
INCH ACCUMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN...FOREGO A
HEADLINE...AND REFRESH THE SPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED
INCREASING RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND
THE TIMING OUT OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PLN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD MVFR AT APN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AT
TVC/MBL...PERHAPS SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010536
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN INTERESTING EVENING. DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN E CENTRAL WI (SW
OF GRB) HAS JUST ABOUT OPENED UP INTO A TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CONTINUES E AND NE OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND F-GEN FORCING. 00Z APX SOUNDING
HAD A NEAR-SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725 AND 600MB...WITH NEAR DRY-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER UP TO ALMOST
500MB.

AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP...MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IS
SWINGING THRU NW LOWER MI PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. BUT POPS WERE INTRODUCED/EXPANDED
THERE.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF FGEN-
ENHANCED SNOW FROM WESTERN MACKINAC CO TO NEAR HARRISVILLE. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY IS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH.
ACCUMS OF AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ENGADINE AND
MACKINAW CITY...THOSE AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE. HEAVIER/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN
CO...THOUGH THIS NARROW BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
MID-30S DBZ RETURNS ARE COMMON IN THIS AREA...STRONG SUPPORTING
BETTER THAN 1 INCH/HR SNOWS.

SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS. IF THIS WAS GOING TO LAST
FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER HOUR I WOULD POP AND ADVISORY FOR CHEBOYGANAND
PERHAPS SW PRESQUE ISLE. BUT THE INTENSITY WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 1030 PM. WILL INSTEAD LIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXPECTED 3-5
INCH ACCUMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN...FOREGO A
HEADLINE...AND REFRESH THE SPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED
INCREASING RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND
THE TIMING OUT OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PLN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD MVFR AT APN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AT
TVC/MBL...PERHAPS SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KAPX 010536
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN INTERESTING EVENING. DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN E CENTRAL WI (SW
OF GRB) HAS JUST ABOUT OPENED UP INTO A TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CONTINUES E AND NE OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND F-GEN FORCING. 00Z APX SOUNDING
HAD A NEAR-SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725 AND 600MB...WITH NEAR DRY-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER UP TO ALMOST
500MB.

AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP...MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IS
SWINGING THRU NW LOWER MI PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. BUT POPS WERE INTRODUCED/EXPANDED
THERE.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF FGEN-
ENHANCED SNOW FROM WESTERN MACKINAC CO TO NEAR HARRISVILLE. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY IS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH.
ACCUMS OF AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ENGADINE AND
MACKINAW CITY...THOSE AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE. HEAVIER/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN
CO...THOUGH THIS NARROW BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
MID-30S DBZ RETURNS ARE COMMON IN THIS AREA...STRONG SUPPORTING
BETTER THAN 1 INCH/HR SNOWS.

SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS. IF THIS WAS GOING TO LAST
FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER HOUR I WOULD POP AND ADVISORY FOR CHEBOYGANAND
PERHAPS SW PRESQUE ISLE. BUT THE INTENSITY WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 1030 PM. WILL INSTEAD LIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXPECTED 3-5
INCH ACCUMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN...FOREGO A
HEADLINE...AND REFRESH THE SPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED
INCREASING RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND
THE TIMING OUT OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PLN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD MVFR AT APN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AT
TVC/MBL...PERHAPS SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010533
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 010533
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010533
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010400
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1200 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015


.AVIATION...

AREA OF MID CLOUD /5 TO 8K FT/ ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
MOISTURE MAY GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES AT MBS/FNT/PTK...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.   THIS CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW FOG.  A LIMITED COVERAGE OF LOWER VFR
STRATOCUMULUS FOR WEDNESDAY AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY/STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TAKES HOLD UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

FOR DTW...TERMINAL WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INBOUND CLOUD DECK EARLY THIS MORNING.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF CEILING IN
THE VICINITY OF 5000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE JUST FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE DIMINISHING TREND ALREADY.
AN AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.  THIS WAVE IS MUCH LIKE THE WAVE THIS
MORNING THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER ONE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ALREADY OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS.  THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO TIGHTEN
UP THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT ANY PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY FALL.  12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS NOT WARMING UP AS MUCH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALL
SNOW AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR THOSE AREAS.  AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER ARE LOOKING AT HOVERING AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT ROUND CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE NEXT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  ONCE THIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
APPROACHES THE AREA.

LONG TERM...

ADVANCING STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY FORCING ITS
TRANSLATION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY SIGNAL A REBOUNDING OF THE THERMAL FIELD
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPS REACHING 2-4C BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STRATOCU.
RESPECTABLE INSOLATION WILL, HOWEVER, BE OFFSET BY AN AUGMENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD BY THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM MID 40S IN THE THUMB AND
LAKE SHADOWED AREAS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING
60 IN WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACNW COAST SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFF THE DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C BY THURSDAY MORNING. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM SE TO SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
LAKE SHADOWING WILL SUPPRESS WARMING IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND
THE THUMB. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT RANGING FROM
LOWS AROUND 45 CLOSER TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND UPPER 30S EAST.

FURTHERMORE, THE LOCAL STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION AND LIGHT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE LAKES INTRODUCE THE PROSPECT FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING, PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FULL DAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP SW FLOW
EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CYCLE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO FORECASTING THE EXACT NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WAA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE HIGHS INTO
AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED SCENARIO
TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THURSDAY. THE NATURE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THURS AFTERNOON
IS NOT EASILY DIAGNOSED AT THIS LEAD TIME. HOWEVER, INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FEATURE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
DAY. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY IN
THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FROPA USHERS IN COOLER
AIR OVERNIGHT.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF ACTIVE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE ITS WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIP RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AND
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE PUT IN A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING INTO ALL RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010400
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1200 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015


.AVIATION...

AREA OF MID CLOUD /5 TO 8K FT/ ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
MOISTURE MAY GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES AT MBS/FNT/PTK...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.   THIS CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW FOG.  A LIMITED COVERAGE OF LOWER VFR
STRATOCUMULUS FOR WEDNESDAY AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY/STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TAKES HOLD UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

FOR DTW...TERMINAL WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INBOUND CLOUD DECK EARLY THIS MORNING.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF CEILING IN
THE VICINITY OF 5000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE JUST FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE DIMINISHING TREND ALREADY.
AN AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.  THIS WAVE IS MUCH LIKE THE WAVE THIS
MORNING THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER ONE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ALREADY OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS.  THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO TIGHTEN
UP THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT ANY PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY FALL.  12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS NOT WARMING UP AS MUCH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALL
SNOW AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR THOSE AREAS.  AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER ARE LOOKING AT HOVERING AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT ROUND CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE NEXT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  ONCE THIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
APPROACHES THE AREA.

LONG TERM...

ADVANCING STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY FORCING ITS
TRANSLATION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY SIGNAL A REBOUNDING OF THE THERMAL FIELD
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPS REACHING 2-4C BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STRATOCU.
RESPECTABLE INSOLATION WILL, HOWEVER, BE OFFSET BY AN AUGMENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD BY THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM MID 40S IN THE THUMB AND
LAKE SHADOWED AREAS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING
60 IN WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACNW COAST SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFF THE DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C BY THURSDAY MORNING. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM SE TO SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
LAKE SHADOWING WILL SUPPRESS WARMING IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND
THE THUMB. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT RANGING FROM
LOWS AROUND 45 CLOSER TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND UPPER 30S EAST.

FURTHERMORE, THE LOCAL STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION AND LIGHT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE LAKES INTRODUCE THE PROSPECT FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING, PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FULL DAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP SW FLOW
EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CYCLE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO FORECASTING THE EXACT NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WAA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE HIGHS INTO
AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED SCENARIO
TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THURSDAY. THE NATURE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THURS AFTERNOON
IS NOT EASILY DIAGNOSED AT THIS LEAD TIME. HOWEVER, INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FEATURE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
DAY. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY IN
THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FROPA USHERS IN COOLER
AIR OVERNIGHT.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF ACTIVE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE ITS WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIP RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AND
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE PUT IN A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING INTO ALL RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 010341
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1141 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AFTER MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN ITEM OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRETCHING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON A SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. A STRONG LLJ
LOCATED UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BEND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
A LOSE A BIT OF PUNCH/SPEED. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
WITH MU CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OR 500 J/KG. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THOUGH TO KEEP STORMS IN THE FORECAST...NOTHING SEVERE.

ON THURSDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY UNDERGO A DIURNAL
FADE IN THE MORNING...TRYING TO REINTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME PREVALENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE EVENT...SO NOTHING TOO HEAVY.

OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS IN THE BEGINNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE ADDED THE THREAT FOR PCPN BACK INTO THE FCST FOR THE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
THAT THE UPPER WAVE THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WILL BRING THE SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO BRING PCPN CHCS TO THE AREA. ENOUGH WARM
ENOUGH AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY ON FRI TO KEEP PCPN RAIN. WE
DO EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW BY FRI EVENING AS COLD AIR IS
DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA BEHIND THE WAVE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER ON SAT AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THIS COMES WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRUSH THE AREA. THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN WILL COME
BACK ON SUN AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AND MOISTURE RETURNS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS FROM MON
THROUGH TUE FOR THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT RETURNS NORTH ON SUN WILL
BECOME STALLED OUT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL WAVES OF PCPN
ALONG IT...SO WE HAVE CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR MON AND TUE. SOME OF THE
PCPN INITIALLY COULD END UP BEING A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES WITH A SFC
HIGH TO OUR NORTH FUNNELING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN WITH WARMER AIR COMING IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND BEYOND AS A WRN TROUGH DIGS AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SWRLY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOG AND STRATUS HAS BEEN HOLDING OFFSHORE AND LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT IT WILL ONLY MAKE A CLOSE APPROACH TO KMKG. NEW
FORECAST WILL REFLECT KEEPING THE IFR WEST OF KMKG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LARGELY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS INTO THE 3RD
PERIOD...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX
DOWN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION SETUP. THINKING 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AT
THIS POINT...WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. UNTIL THAT TIME...FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECTING MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 010150 CCA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN INTERESTING EVENING. DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN E CENTRAL WI (SW
OF GRB) HAS JUST ABOUT OPENED UP INTO A TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CONTINUES E AND NE OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND F-GEN FORCING. 00Z APX SOUNDING
HAD A NEAR-SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725 AND 600MB...WITH NEAR DRY-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER UP TO ALMOST
500MB.

AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP...MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IS
SWINGING THRU NW LOWER MI PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. BUT POPS WERE INTRODUCED/EXPANDED
THERE.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF FGEN-
ENHANCED SNOW FROM WESTERN MACKINAC CO TO NEAR HARRISVILLE. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY IS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH.
ACCUMS OF AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ENGADINE AND
MACKINAW CITY...THOSE AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE. HEAVIER/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN
CO...THOUGH THIS NARROW BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
MID-30S DBZ RETURNS ARE COMMON IN THIS AREA...STRONG SUPPORTING
BETTER THAN 1 INCH/HR SNOWS.

SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS. IF THIS WAS GOING TO LAST
FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER HOUR I WOULD POP AND ADVISORY FOR CHEBOYGANAND
PERHAPS SW PRESQUE ISLE. BUT THE INTENSITY WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 1030 PM. WILL INSTEAD LIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXPECTED 3-5
INCH ACCUMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN...FOREGO A
HEADLINE...AND REFRESH THE SPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED
INCREASING RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND
THE TIMING OUT OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010150 CCA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN INTERESTING EVENING. DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN E CENTRAL WI (SW
OF GRB) HAS JUST ABOUT OPENED UP INTO A TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CONTINUES E AND NE OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND F-GEN FORCING. 00Z APX SOUNDING
HAD A NEAR-SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725 AND 600MB...WITH NEAR DRY-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER UP TO ALMOST
500MB.

AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP...MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IS
SWINGING THRU NW LOWER MI PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. BUT POPS WERE INTRODUCED/EXPANDED
THERE.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF FGEN-
ENHANCED SNOW FROM WESTERN MACKINAC CO TO NEAR HARRISVILLE. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY IS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH.
ACCUMS OF AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ENGADINE AND
MACKINAW CITY...THOSE AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE. HEAVIER/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN
CO...THOUGH THIS NARROW BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
MID-30S DBZ RETURNS ARE COMMON IN THIS AREA...STRONG SUPPORTING
BETTER THAN 1 INCH/HR SNOWS.

SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS. IF THIS WAS GOING TO LAST
FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER HOUR I WOULD POP AND ADVISORY FOR CHEBOYGANAND
PERHAPS SW PRESQUE ISLE. BUT THE INTENSITY WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 1030 PM. WILL INSTEAD LIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXPECTED 3-5
INCH ACCUMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN...FOREGO A
HEADLINE...AND REFRESH THE SPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED
INCREASING RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND
THE TIMING OUT OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KAPX 010150
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN INTERESTING EVENING. DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN E CENTRAL WI (SW
OF GRB) HAS JUST ABOUT OPENED UP INTO A TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CONTINUES E AND NE OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND F-GEN FORCING. 00Z APX SOUNDING
HAD A NEAR-SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725 AND 600MB...WITH NEAR DRY-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER UP TO ALMOST
500MB.

AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP...MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IS
SWINGING THRU NW LOWER MI PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. BUT POPS WERE INTRODUCED/EXPANDED
THERE.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF FGEN-
ENHANCED SNOW FROM WESTERN MACKINAC CO TO NEAR HARRISVILLE. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY IS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH.
ACCUMS OF AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ENGADINE AND
MACKINAW CITY...THOSE AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE. HEAVIER/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN
CO...THOUGH THIS NARROW BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
MID-30S DBZ RETURNS ARE COMMON IN THIS AREA...STRONG SUPPORTING
BETTER THAN 1 INCH/HR SNOWS.

SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS. IF THIS WAS GOING TO LAST
FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER HOUR I WOULD POP AND ADVISORY FOR CHEBOYGANAND
PERHAPS SW PRESQUE ISLE. BUT THE INTENSITY WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 1030 PM. WILL INSTEAD LIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXPECTED 3-5
INCH ACCUMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN...FOREGO A
HEADLINE...AND REFRESH THE SPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED INCREASING
RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND THE TIMING OUT
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010150
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN INTERESTING EVENING. DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN E CENTRAL WI (SW
OF GRB) HAS JUST ABOUT OPENED UP INTO A TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CONTINUES E AND NE OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND F-GEN FORCING. 00Z APX SOUNDING
HAD A NEAR-SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725 AND 600MB...WITH NEAR DRY-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER UP TO ALMOST
500MB.

AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP...MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IS
SWINGING THRU NW LOWER MI PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. BUT POPS WERE INTRODUCED/EXPANDED
THERE.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF FGEN-
ENHANCED SNOW FROM WESTERN MACKINAC CO TO NEAR HARRISVILLE. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY IS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH.
ACCUMS OF AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ENGADINE AND
MACKINAW CITY...THOSE AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE. HEAVIER/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN
CO...THOUGH THIS NARROW BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
MID-30S DBZ RETURNS ARE COMMON IN THIS AREA...STRONG SUPPORTING
BETTER THAN 1 INCH/HR SNOWS.

SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS. IF THIS WAS GOING TO LAST
FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER HOUR I WOULD POP AND ADVISORY FOR CHEBOYGANAND
PERHAPS SW PRESQUE ISLE. BUT THE INTENSITY WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 1030 PM. WILL INSTEAD LIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXPECTED 3-5
INCH ACCUMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN...FOREGO A
HEADLINE...AND REFRESH THE SPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED INCREASING
RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND THE TIMING OUT
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KAPX 010150
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN INTERESTING EVENING. DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN E CENTRAL WI (SW
OF GRB) HAS JUST ABOUT OPENED UP INTO A TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CONTINUES E AND NE OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND F-GEN FORCING. 00Z APX SOUNDING
HAD A NEAR-SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725 AND 600MB...WITH NEAR DRY-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER UP TO ALMOST
500MB.

AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP...MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IS
SWINGING THRU NW LOWER MI PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. BUT POPS WERE INTRODUCED/EXPANDED
THERE.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF FGEN-
ENHANCED SNOW FROM WESTERN MACKINAC CO TO NEAR HARRISVILLE. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY IS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH.
ACCUMS OF AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ENGADINE AND
MACKINAW CITY...THOSE AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE. HEAVIER/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN
CO...THOUGH THIS NARROW BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
MID-30S DBZ RETURNS ARE COMMON IN THIS AREA...STRONG SUPPORTING
BETTER THAN 1 INCH/HR SNOWS.

SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS. IF THIS WAS GOING TO LAST
FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER HOUR I WOULD POP AND ADVISORY FOR CHEBOYGANAND
PERHAPS SW PRESQUE ISLE. BUT THE INTENSITY WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 1030 PM. WILL INSTEAD LIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXPECTED 3-5
INCH ACCUMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN...FOREGO A
HEADLINE...AND REFRESH THE SPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED INCREASING
RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND THE TIMING OUT
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010150
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN INTERESTING EVENING. DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN E CENTRAL WI (SW
OF GRB) HAS JUST ABOUT OPENED UP INTO A TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CONTINUES E AND NE OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND F-GEN FORCING. 00Z APX SOUNDING
HAD A NEAR-SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725 AND 600MB...WITH NEAR DRY-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER UP TO ALMOST
500MB.

AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP...MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IS
SWINGING THRU NW LOWER MI PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. BUT POPS WERE INTRODUCED/EXPANDED
THERE.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF FGEN-
ENHANCED SNOW FROM WESTERN MACKINAC CO TO NEAR HARRISVILLE. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY IS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH.
ACCUMS OF AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ENGADINE AND
MACKINAW CITY...THOSE AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE. HEAVIER/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN
CO...THOUGH THIS NARROW BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
MID-30S DBZ RETURNS ARE COMMON IN THIS AREA...STRONG SUPPORTING
BETTER THAN 1 INCH/HR SNOWS.

SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS. IF THIS WAS GOING TO LAST
FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER HOUR I WOULD POP AND ADVISORY FOR CHEBOYGANAND
PERHAPS SW PRESQUE ISLE. BUT THE INTENSITY WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 1030 PM. WILL INSTEAD LIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXPECTED 3-5
INCH ACCUMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN...FOREGO A
HEADLINE...AND REFRESH THE SPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED INCREASING
RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND THE TIMING OUT
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010150
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN INTERESTING EVENING. DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN E CENTRAL WI (SW
OF GRB) HAS JUST ABOUT OPENED UP INTO A TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CONTINUES E AND NE OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND F-GEN FORCING. 00Z APX SOUNDING
HAD A NEAR-SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725 AND 600MB...WITH NEAR DRY-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER UP TO ALMOST
500MB.

AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP...MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IS
SWINGING THRU NW LOWER MI PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. BUT POPS WERE INTRODUCED/EXPANDED
THERE.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF FGEN-
ENHANCED SNOW FROM WESTERN MACKINAC CO TO NEAR HARRISVILLE. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY IS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH.
ACCUMS OF AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ENGADINE AND
MACKINAW CITY...THOSE AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE. HEAVIER/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN
CO...THOUGH THIS NARROW BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
MID-30S DBZ RETURNS ARE COMMON IN THIS AREA...STRONG SUPPORTING
BETTER THAN 1 INCH/HR SNOWS.

SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS. IF THIS WAS GOING TO LAST
FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER HOUR I WOULD POP AND ADVISORY FOR CHEBOYGANAND
PERHAPS SW PRESQUE ISLE. BUT THE INTENSITY WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 1030 PM. WILL INSTEAD LIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXPECTED 3-5
INCH ACCUMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN...FOREGO A
HEADLINE...AND REFRESH THE SPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED INCREASING
RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND THE TIMING OUT
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010150
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN INTERESTING EVENING. DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN E CENTRAL WI (SW
OF GRB) HAS JUST ABOUT OPENED UP INTO A TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CONTINUES E AND NE OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND F-GEN FORCING. 00Z APX SOUNDING
HAD A NEAR-SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725 AND 600MB...WITH NEAR DRY-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER UP TO ALMOST
500MB.

AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP...MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IS
SWINGING THRU NW LOWER MI PRESENTLY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. BUT POPS WERE INTRODUCED/EXPANDED
THERE.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF FGEN-
ENHANCED SNOW FROM WESTERN MACKINAC CO TO NEAR HARRISVILLE. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY IS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH.
ACCUMS OF AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ENGADINE AND
MACKINAW CITY...THOSE AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE. HEAVIER/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN
CO...THOUGH THIS NARROW BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
MID-30S DBZ RETURNS ARE COMMON IN THIS AREA...STRONG SUPPORTING
BETTER THAN 1 INCH/HR SNOWS.

SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS. IF THIS WAS GOING TO LAST
FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER HOUR I WOULD POP AND ADVISORY FOR CHEBOYGANAND
PERHAPS SW PRESQUE ISLE. BUT THE INTENSITY WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 1030 PM. WILL INSTEAD LIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXPECTED 3-5
INCH ACCUMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN...FOREGO A
HEADLINE...AND REFRESH THE SPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED INCREASING
RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND THE TIMING OUT
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 312350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED INCREASING
RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND THE TIMING OUT
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KMQT 312350
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. WILL END THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. KIWD HAS ALREADY
IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS AND WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AT KSAW...CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF MVFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK AS MIXING TAKES HOLD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. KCMX REMAINS THE
CHALLENGE AS ANY TIME WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THERE...
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT OR SHIFT TO THE EAST. CEILINGS TO
STAY LIFR/IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL THREE SITES LATE IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BUT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 312350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED INCREASING
RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND THE TIMING OUT
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KMQT 312350
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. WILL END THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. KIWD HAS ALREADY
IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS AND WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AT KSAW...CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF MVFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK AS MIXING TAKES HOLD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. KCMX REMAINS THE
CHALLENGE AS ANY TIME WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THERE...
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT OR SHIFT TO THE EAST. CEILINGS TO
STAY LIFR/IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL THREE SITES LATE IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BUT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 312350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED INCREASING
RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND THE TIMING OUT
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KAPX 312350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED INCREASING
RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND THE TIMING OUT
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KMQT 312350
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. WILL END THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. KIWD HAS ALREADY
IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS AND WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AT KSAW...CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF MVFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK AS MIXING TAKES HOLD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. KCMX REMAINS THE
CHALLENGE AS ANY TIME WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THERE...
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT OR SHIFT TO THE EAST. CEILINGS TO
STAY LIFR/IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL THREE SITES LATE IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BUT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KAPX 312350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED INCREASING
RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND THE TIMING OUT
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH
A TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF -SN/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING PLN/APN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF MIXED PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) WAS MOVING SE FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VSBYS TO PLN/APN
THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE -SN ENDS.
HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT PLN/APN WED MORNING.
TVC/MBL WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...A S TO SE BREEZE WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KMQT 312350
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. WILL END THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. KIWD HAS ALREADY
IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS AND WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AT KSAW...CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF MVFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK AS MIXING TAKES HOLD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. KCMX REMAINS THE
CHALLENGE AS ANY TIME WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THERE...
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT OR SHIFT TO THE EAST. CEILINGS TO
STAY LIFR/IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL THREE SITES LATE IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BUT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 312350
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. WILL END THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. KIWD HAS ALREADY
IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS AND WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AT KSAW...CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF MVFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK AS MIXING TAKES HOLD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. KCMX REMAINS THE
CHALLENGE AS ANY TIME WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THERE...
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT OR SHIFT TO THE EAST. CEILINGS TO
STAY LIFR/IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL THREE SITES LATE IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BUT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 312350
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. WILL END THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. KIWD HAS ALREADY
IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS AND WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AT KSAW...CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF MVFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK AS MIXING TAKES HOLD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. KCMX REMAINS THE
CHALLENGE AS ANY TIME WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THERE...
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT OR SHIFT TO THE EAST. CEILINGS TO
STAY LIFR/IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL THREE SITES LATE IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BUT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 312339
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AFTER MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN ITEM OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRETCHING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON A SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. A STRONG LLJ
LOCATED UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BEND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
A LOSE A BIT OF PUNCH/SPEED. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
WITH MU CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OR 500 J/KG. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THOUGH TO KEEP STORMS IN THE FORECAST...NOTHING SEVERE.

ON THURSDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY UNDERGO A DIURNAL
FADE IN THE MORNING...TRYING TO REINTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME PREVALENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE EVENT...SO NOTHING TOO HEAVY.

OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS IN THE BEGINNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE ADDED THE THREAT FOR PCPN BACK INTO THE FCST FOR THE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
THAT THE UPPER WAVE THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WILL BRING THE SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO BRING PCPN CHCS TO THE AREA. ENOUGH WARM
ENOUGH AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY ON FRI TO KEEP PCPN RAIN. WE
DO EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW BY FRI EVENING AS COLD AIR IS
DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA BEHIND THE WAVE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER ON SAT AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THIS COMES WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRUSH THE AREA. THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN WILL COME
BACK ON SUN AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AND MOISTURE RETURNS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS FROM MON
THROUGH TUE FOR THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT RETURNS NORTH ON SUN WILL
BECOME STALLED OUT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL WAVES OF PCPN
ALONG IT...SO WE HAVE CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR MON AND TUE. SOME OF THE
PCPN INITIALLY COULD END UP BEING A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES WITH A SFC
HIGH TO OUR NORTH FUNNELING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN WITH WARMER AIR COMING IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND BEYOND AS A WRN TROUGH DIGS AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SWRLY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

I ADDED IFR FOG/STRATUS TO KMKG TAF TONIGHT...AND WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR KGRR CLOSELY. THERE WAS MARINE FOG FOR PLACES LIKE KBEH
AND KLWA EARLIER. WHILE IT HAS LARGELY DISAPPEARED...AS WE COOL
OFF TONIGHT...THE FOG COULD EASILY REFORM. CURRENT PROJECTIONS
SHOW THIS HAPPENING AROUND KMKG CLOSE TO 06Z. AVIATORS FLYING
TONIGHT SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.

IF THE FOG DOES BECOME WIDESPREAD...IT COULD TAKE THROUGH THE
MORNING TO LIFT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS INTO THE 3RD
PERIOD...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX
DOWN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION SETUP. THINKING 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AT
THIS POINT...WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. UNTIL THAT TIME...FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECTING MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 312339
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AFTER MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN ITEM OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRETCHING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON A SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. A STRONG LLJ
LOCATED UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BEND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
A LOSE A BIT OF PUNCH/SPEED. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
WITH MU CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OR 500 J/KG. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THOUGH TO KEEP STORMS IN THE FORECAST...NOTHING SEVERE.

ON THURSDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY UNDERGO A DIURNAL
FADE IN THE MORNING...TRYING TO REINTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME PREVALENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE EVENT...SO NOTHING TOO HEAVY.

OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS IN THE BEGINNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE ADDED THE THREAT FOR PCPN BACK INTO THE FCST FOR THE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
THAT THE UPPER WAVE THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WILL BRING THE SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO BRING PCPN CHCS TO THE AREA. ENOUGH WARM
ENOUGH AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY ON FRI TO KEEP PCPN RAIN. WE
DO EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW BY FRI EVENING AS COLD AIR IS
DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA BEHIND THE WAVE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER ON SAT AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THIS COMES WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRUSH THE AREA. THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN WILL COME
BACK ON SUN AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AND MOISTURE RETURNS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS FROM MON
THROUGH TUE FOR THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT RETURNS NORTH ON SUN WILL
BECOME STALLED OUT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL WAVES OF PCPN
ALONG IT...SO WE HAVE CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR MON AND TUE. SOME OF THE
PCPN INITIALLY COULD END UP BEING A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES WITH A SFC
HIGH TO OUR NORTH FUNNELING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN WITH WARMER AIR COMING IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND BEYOND AS A WRN TROUGH DIGS AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SWRLY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

I ADDED IFR FOG/STRATUS TO KMKG TAF TONIGHT...AND WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR KGRR CLOSELY. THERE WAS MARINE FOG FOR PLACES LIKE KBEH
AND KLWA EARLIER. WHILE IT HAS LARGELY DISAPPEARED...AS WE COOL
OFF TONIGHT...THE FOG COULD EASILY REFORM. CURRENT PROJECTIONS
SHOW THIS HAPPENING AROUND KMKG CLOSE TO 06Z. AVIATORS FLYING
TONIGHT SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.

IF THE FOG DOES BECOME WIDESPREAD...IT COULD TAKE THROUGH THE
MORNING TO LIFT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS INTO THE 3RD
PERIOD...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX
DOWN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION SETUP. THINKING 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AT
THIS POINT...WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. UNTIL THAT TIME...FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECTING MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 312339
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AFTER MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN ITEM OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRETCHING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON A SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. A STRONG LLJ
LOCATED UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BEND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
A LOSE A BIT OF PUNCH/SPEED. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
WITH MU CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OR 500 J/KG. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THOUGH TO KEEP STORMS IN THE FORECAST...NOTHING SEVERE.

ON THURSDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY UNDERGO A DIURNAL
FADE IN THE MORNING...TRYING TO REINTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME PREVALENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE EVENT...SO NOTHING TOO HEAVY.

OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS IN THE BEGINNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE ADDED THE THREAT FOR PCPN BACK INTO THE FCST FOR THE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
THAT THE UPPER WAVE THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WILL BRING THE SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO BRING PCPN CHCS TO THE AREA. ENOUGH WARM
ENOUGH AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY ON FRI TO KEEP PCPN RAIN. WE
DO EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW BY FRI EVENING AS COLD AIR IS
DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA BEHIND THE WAVE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER ON SAT AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THIS COMES WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRUSH THE AREA. THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN WILL COME
BACK ON SUN AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AND MOISTURE RETURNS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS FROM MON
THROUGH TUE FOR THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT RETURNS NORTH ON SUN WILL
BECOME STALLED OUT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL WAVES OF PCPN
ALONG IT...SO WE HAVE CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR MON AND TUE. SOME OF THE
PCPN INITIALLY COULD END UP BEING A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES WITH A SFC
HIGH TO OUR NORTH FUNNELING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN WITH WARMER AIR COMING IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND BEYOND AS A WRN TROUGH DIGS AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SWRLY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

I ADDED IFR FOG/STRATUS TO KMKG TAF TONIGHT...AND WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR KGRR CLOSELY. THERE WAS MARINE FOG FOR PLACES LIKE KBEH
AND KLWA EARLIER. WHILE IT HAS LARGELY DISAPPEARED...AS WE COOL
OFF TONIGHT...THE FOG COULD EASILY REFORM. CURRENT PROJECTIONS
SHOW THIS HAPPENING AROUND KMKG CLOSE TO 06Z. AVIATORS FLYING
TONIGHT SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.

IF THE FOG DOES BECOME WIDESPREAD...IT COULD TAKE THROUGH THE
MORNING TO LIFT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS INTO THE 3RD
PERIOD...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX
DOWN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION SETUP. THINKING 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AT
THIS POINT...WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. UNTIL THAT TIME...FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECTING MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KDTX 312311
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
711 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.AVIATION...

A CLEAR SKY/VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A NOTED INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUD /5 TO 8K FT/ FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
GREATER PROSPECTS FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
ALL TERMINALS.  DIMINISHING GRADIENT FLOW AND MOIST NEAR SURFACE
CONDITIONS MAY PROMOTE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  A LIMITED COVERAGE OF LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT TAKES HOLD UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET PRIOR TO 06Z...MODERATE POTENTIAL
  06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE JUST FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE DIMINISHING TREND ALREADY.
AN AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.  THIS WAVE IS MUCH LIKE THE WAVE THIS
MORNING THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER ONE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ALREADY OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS.  THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO TIGHTEN
UP THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT ANY PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY FALL.  12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS NOT WARMING UP AS MUCH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALL
SNOW AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR THOSE AREAS.  AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER ARE LOOKING AT HOVERING AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT ROUND CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE NEXT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  ONCE THIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
APPROACHES THE AREA.

LONG TERM...

ADVANCING STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY FORCING ITS
TRANSLATION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY SIGNAL A REBOUNDING OF THE THERMAL FIELD
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPS REACHING 2-4C BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STRATOCU.
RESPECTABLE INSOLATION WILL, HOWEVER, BE OFFSET BY AN AUGMENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD BY THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM MID 40S IN THE THUMB AND
LAKE SHADOWED AREAS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING
60 IN WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACNW COAST SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFF THE DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C BY THURSDAY MORNING. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM SE TO SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
LAKE SHADOWING WILL SUPPRESS WARMING IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND
THE THUMB. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT RANGING FROM
LOWS AROUND 45 CLOSER TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND UPPER 30S EAST.

FURTHERMORE, THE LOCAL STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION AND LIGHT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE LAKES INTRODUCE THE PROSPECT FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING, PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FULL DAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP SW FLOW
EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CYCLE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO FORECASTING THE EXACT NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WAA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE HIGHS INTO
AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED SCENARIO
TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THURSDAY. THE NATURE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THURS AFTERNOON
IS NOT EASILY DIAGNOSED AT THIS LEAD TIME. HOWEVER, INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FEATURE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
DAY. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY IN
THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FROPA USHERS IN COOLER
AIR OVERNIGHT.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF ACTIVE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE ITS WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIP RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AND
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE PUT IN A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING INTO ALL RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 312311
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
711 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.AVIATION...

A CLEAR SKY/VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A NOTED INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUD /5 TO 8K FT/ FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
GREATER PROSPECTS FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
ALL TERMINALS.  DIMINISHING GRADIENT FLOW AND MOIST NEAR SURFACE
CONDITIONS MAY PROMOTE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  A LIMITED COVERAGE OF LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT TAKES HOLD UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET PRIOR TO 06Z...MODERATE POTENTIAL
  06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE JUST FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE DIMINISHING TREND ALREADY.
AN AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.  THIS WAVE IS MUCH LIKE THE WAVE THIS
MORNING THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER ONE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ALREADY OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS.  THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO TIGHTEN
UP THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT ANY PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY FALL.  12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS NOT WARMING UP AS MUCH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALL
SNOW AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR THOSE AREAS.  AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER ARE LOOKING AT HOVERING AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT ROUND CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE NEXT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  ONCE THIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
APPROACHES THE AREA.

LONG TERM...

ADVANCING STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY FORCING ITS
TRANSLATION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY SIGNAL A REBOUNDING OF THE THERMAL FIELD
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPS REACHING 2-4C BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STRATOCU.
RESPECTABLE INSOLATION WILL, HOWEVER, BE OFFSET BY AN AUGMENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD BY THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM MID 40S IN THE THUMB AND
LAKE SHADOWED AREAS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING
60 IN WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACNW COAST SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFF THE DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C BY THURSDAY MORNING. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM SE TO SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
LAKE SHADOWING WILL SUPPRESS WARMING IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND
THE THUMB. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT RANGING FROM
LOWS AROUND 45 CLOSER TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND UPPER 30S EAST.

FURTHERMORE, THE LOCAL STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION AND LIGHT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE LAKES INTRODUCE THE PROSPECT FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING, PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FULL DAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP SW FLOW
EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CYCLE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO FORECASTING THE EXACT NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WAA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE HIGHS INTO
AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED SCENARIO
TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THURSDAY. THE NATURE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THURS AFTERNOON
IS NOT EASILY DIAGNOSED AT THIS LEAD TIME. HOWEVER, INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FEATURE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
DAY. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY IN
THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FROPA USHERS IN COOLER
AIR OVERNIGHT.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF ACTIVE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE ITS WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIP RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AND
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE PUT IN A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING INTO ALL RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 312311
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
711 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.AVIATION...

A CLEAR SKY/VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A NOTED INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUD /5 TO 8K FT/ FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
GREATER PROSPECTS FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
ALL TERMINALS.  DIMINISHING GRADIENT FLOW AND MOIST NEAR SURFACE
CONDITIONS MAY PROMOTE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  A LIMITED COVERAGE OF LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT TAKES HOLD UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET PRIOR TO 06Z...MODERATE POTENTIAL
  06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE JUST FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE DIMINISHING TREND ALREADY.
AN AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.  THIS WAVE IS MUCH LIKE THE WAVE THIS
MORNING THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER ONE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ALREADY OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS.  THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO TIGHTEN
UP THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT ANY PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY FALL.  12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS NOT WARMING UP AS MUCH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALL
SNOW AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR THOSE AREAS.  AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER ARE LOOKING AT HOVERING AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT ROUND CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE NEXT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  ONCE THIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
APPROACHES THE AREA.

LONG TERM...

ADVANCING STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY FORCING ITS
TRANSLATION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY SIGNAL A REBOUNDING OF THE THERMAL FIELD
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPS REACHING 2-4C BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STRATOCU.
RESPECTABLE INSOLATION WILL, HOWEVER, BE OFFSET BY AN AUGMENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD BY THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM MID 40S IN THE THUMB AND
LAKE SHADOWED AREAS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING
60 IN WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACNW COAST SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFF THE DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C BY THURSDAY MORNING. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM SE TO SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
LAKE SHADOWING WILL SUPPRESS WARMING IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND
THE THUMB. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT RANGING FROM
LOWS AROUND 45 CLOSER TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND UPPER 30S EAST.

FURTHERMORE, THE LOCAL STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION AND LIGHT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE LAKES INTRODUCE THE PROSPECT FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING, PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FULL DAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP SW FLOW
EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CYCLE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO FORECASTING THE EXACT NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WAA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE HIGHS INTO
AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED SCENARIO
TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THURSDAY. THE NATURE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THURS AFTERNOON
IS NOT EASILY DIAGNOSED AT THIS LEAD TIME. HOWEVER, INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FEATURE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
DAY. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY IN
THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FROPA USHERS IN COOLER
AIR OVERNIGHT.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF ACTIVE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE ITS WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIP RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AND
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE PUT IN A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING INTO ALL RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 312015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 312015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 312015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 312015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 312013
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S
EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 312013
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S
EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 312013
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S
EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 312013
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S
EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS



000
FXUS63 KAPX 311957
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
357 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAD ABOUT DISSIPATED WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS SHOWED INCREASING
RETURNS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE TIMING IN AND THE TIMING OUT
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIHGT. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS (MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA) SO HAVE PULLED OUT THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A FRESH COATING OF SNOW WITH A
TOP END SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO BE ABOUT AN INCH. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN VEER INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE NIL.

PATTERN/FORECAST: TIME-LONGITUDE PLOTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PERSISTENCE TO RIDGING NEAR 120W SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CENTERED A LITTLE EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN OUR PERSISTENT COOL /AND RELATIVELY DRY/
PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT TREND...WITH RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES (A BIT EAST OF IT/S TIME-AVERAGED
LOCATION) WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ROBUST
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...STEADILY PUSHING EAST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION /WED NIGHT-THU/...WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
SO...A CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
FINALLY...WITH TROUGHING MOVING BACK OVERHEAD TO END THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WHAT WE HAS BEEN "NORMAL" SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

WEATHER:

WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL LLEVEL CLOUDINESS AT LEAST IN THE
MORNING WITH WEAK/NON-EXISTENT LLEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL LLEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROMISES A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  I DO EXPECT THAT
THE LLEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN/BREAK UP /EVEN THE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE NAM THINS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY...BUT... AS A
WHOLE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPER ANY CLEARING.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION TO SPAWN ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.  EVEN HERE...H9-8 DRY WEDGE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST...WITH LLEVEL TRAJECTORIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EVENING...SO NO HIGHER THAN INHERITED CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPIKING PWATS TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS
FOR THE START OF APRIL/.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST FORCING AT MID LEVELS
/BEST MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT NORTH OF THE LAKES CLOSER TO PARENT WAVE/
LLEVEL JET-INDUCED MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM EXPANDING A SHIELD OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES DROP BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN ROBUST LLEVEL
HEAT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONTINUES
TO BE WARRANTED.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...WITH ADDED SUPPORT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT AT H2.  THIS WILL TAKE RAIN SHIELD AND PUSH
IT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL TO PUSH MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS A RESULT.  WILL NEED TO
SEE A TREND TO MORE INSTABILITY /GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL 60KT DEEP SHEAR/
BEFORE ANY WORRIES ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT /SEE SPC MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH OF OUR AREA/ BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AND
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR QPF...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH
EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER...TAPERING TO 0.25" OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER.  THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALWAYS THROWS A CAVEAT
IN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE A BIT HIGHER THAN THESE
AMOUNTS...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL FOR EARLY APRIL AND QPF
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD STILL KEEP AREA RIVERS IN/NEAR
BANKFULL.

FRIDAY: ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT TAKES T8S
BACK TOWARDS -10C DURING THE DAY UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THAT
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESIDE CLOSE TO -10-12C...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE LLEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RULE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EYES TURN SOUTH TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  MORE ON THIS
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON /FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY/
GIVEN NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TEMPERATURES:

CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VERTICAL MIXING LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH.
T9S WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS EVENING...WHICH...FULLY MIXED WOULD
ALLOW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO REACH INTO THE 50S.  GIVEN
HIGH LOCATION...EXPECT EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM...AND REMAIN IN THE 40-45F RANGE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE 50...AND PERHAPS NEAR 55F GIVEN
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING WEST OF US-131. WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS LLEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
KEEPS THE LLEVELS COUPLED...AND INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDE MUCH RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SOME IN THE EVENING...BUT STEADY...AND LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR 40 EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER...AND
IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY.  T9S NEAR +10C SUPPORT
LOCATIONS REACHING 60F WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE LLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/ SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THE LONGEST
AND PROMOTE THE GREATEST MIXING.  12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THESE SPOTS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND FALLING LLEVEL TEMPERATURES KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  ACTUAL GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE SHARPER
THAN WE CAN CONFIDENTLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

BACK TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLOWLY CLIMBING AGAINST ONGOING COLD ADVECTION.  T9S IN THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS SPELL HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A GULF OF MOISTURE-RICH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ENDING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOT ON ITS HEELS...BY SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AT THAT POINT...COULD SEE A WINDOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE EASTER
HOLIDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE (ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE - SOMETHING NOT SEEN MUCH
UP NORTH THIS WINTER) DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
...THEN TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY ALONG WITH EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT DEVELOPS AS
PROGGED) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES OR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY EVENT - ALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW TO PLN AND APN LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. CIGS INCREASE WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ABOUT MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY THE AREA YIELDING
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE EAST
LATE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KGRR 311937
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AFTER MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN ITEM OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRETCHING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON A SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. A STRONG LLJ
LOCATED UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BEND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
A LOSE A BIT OF PUNCH/SPEED. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
WITH MU CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OR 500 J/KG. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THOUGH TO KEEP STORMS IN THE FORECAST...NOTHING SEVERE.

ON THURSDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY UNDERGO A DIURNAL
FADE IN THE MORNING...TRYING TO REINTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME PREVALENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE EVENT...SO NOTHING TOO HEAVY.

OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS IN THE BEGINNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE ADDED THE THREAT FOR PCPN BACK INTO THE FCST FOR THE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
THAT THE UPPER WAVE THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WILL BRING THE SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO BRING PCPN CHCS TO THE AREA. ENOUGH WARM
ENOUGH AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY ON FRI TO KEEP PCPN RAIN. WE
DO EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW BY FRI EVENING AS COLD AIR IS
DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA BEHIND THE WAVE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER ON SAT AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THIS COMES WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRUSH THE AREA. THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN WILL COME
BACK ON SUN AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AND MOISTURE RETURNS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS FROM MON
THROUGH TUE FOR THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT RETURNS NORTH ON SUN WILL
BECOME STALLED OUT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL WAVES OF PCPN
ALONG IT...SO WE HAVE CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR MON AND TUE. SOME OF THE
PCPN INITIALLY COULD END UP BEING A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES WITH A SFC
HIGH TO OUR NORTH FUNNELING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN WITH WARMER AIR COMING IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND BEYOND AS A WRN TROUGH DIGS AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SWRLY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE ONLY REAL IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE RIGHT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AND MIXING OUT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE TERMINALS TO GO VFR BY 21Z.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE KMKG WHERE SOME STRATUS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD COME ONSHORE. IT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
THE INLAND AREAS STARTING TO HEAT UP AND DRY OUT.

OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MIGHT BRING
SOME SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET THIS EVENING TO KMKG...BUT THAT
WOULD BE ABOUT IT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS INTO THE 3RD
PERIOD...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX
DOWN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION SETUP. THINKING 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AT
THIS POINT...WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. UNTIL THAT TIME...FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECTING MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE









000
FXUS63 KGRR 311937
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AFTER MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN ITEM OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRETCHING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON A SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. A STRONG LLJ
LOCATED UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BEND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
A LOSE A BIT OF PUNCH/SPEED. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
WITH MU CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OR 500 J/KG. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THOUGH TO KEEP STORMS IN THE FORECAST...NOTHING SEVERE.

ON THURSDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY UNDERGO A DIURNAL
FADE IN THE MORNING...TRYING TO REINTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME PREVALENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE EVENT...SO NOTHING TOO HEAVY.

OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS IN THE BEGINNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE ADDED THE THREAT FOR PCPN BACK INTO THE FCST FOR THE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
THAT THE UPPER WAVE THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WILL BRING THE SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO BRING PCPN CHCS TO THE AREA. ENOUGH WARM
ENOUGH AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY ON FRI TO KEEP PCPN RAIN. WE
DO EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW BY FRI EVENING AS COLD AIR IS
DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA BEHIND THE WAVE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER ON SAT AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THIS COMES WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRUSH THE AREA. THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN WILL COME
BACK ON SUN AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AND MOISTURE RETURNS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS FROM MON
THROUGH TUE FOR THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT RETURNS NORTH ON SUN WILL
BECOME STALLED OUT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL WAVES OF PCPN
ALONG IT...SO WE HAVE CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR MON AND TUE. SOME OF THE
PCPN INITIALLY COULD END UP BEING A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES WITH A SFC
HIGH TO OUR NORTH FUNNELING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN WITH WARMER AIR COMING IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND BEYOND AS A WRN TROUGH DIGS AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SWRLY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE ONLY REAL IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE RIGHT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AND MIXING OUT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE TERMINALS TO GO VFR BY 21Z.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE KMKG WHERE SOME STRATUS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD COME ONSHORE. IT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
THE INLAND AREAS STARTING TO HEAT UP AND DRY OUT.

OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MIGHT BRING
SOME SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET THIS EVENING TO KMKG...BUT THAT
WOULD BE ABOUT IT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS INTO THE 3RD
PERIOD...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX
DOWN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION SETUP. THINKING 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AT
THIS POINT...WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. UNTIL THAT TIME...FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECTING MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE









000
FXUS63 KGRR 311937
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AFTER MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN ITEM OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRETCHING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON A SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. A STRONG LLJ
LOCATED UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BEND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
A LOSE A BIT OF PUNCH/SPEED. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
WITH MU CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OR 500 J/KG. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THOUGH TO KEEP STORMS IN THE FORECAST...NOTHING SEVERE.

ON THURSDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY UNDERGO A DIURNAL
FADE IN THE MORNING...TRYING TO REINTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME PREVALENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE EVENT...SO NOTHING TOO HEAVY.

OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS IN THE BEGINNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE ADDED THE THREAT FOR PCPN BACK INTO THE FCST FOR THE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
THAT THE UPPER WAVE THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WILL BRING THE SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO BRING PCPN CHCS TO THE AREA. ENOUGH WARM
ENOUGH AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY ON FRI TO KEEP PCPN RAIN. WE
DO EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW BY FRI EVENING AS COLD AIR IS
DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA BEHIND THE WAVE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER ON SAT AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THIS COMES WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRUSH THE AREA. THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN WILL COME
BACK ON SUN AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AND MOISTURE RETURNS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS FROM MON
THROUGH TUE FOR THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT RETURNS NORTH ON SUN WILL
BECOME STALLED OUT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL WAVES OF PCPN
ALONG IT...SO WE HAVE CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR MON AND TUE. SOME OF THE
PCPN INITIALLY COULD END UP BEING A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES WITH A SFC
HIGH TO OUR NORTH FUNNELING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN WITH WARMER AIR COMING IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND BEYOND AS A WRN TROUGH DIGS AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SWRLY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE ONLY REAL IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE RIGHT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AND MIXING OUT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE TERMINALS TO GO VFR BY 21Z.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE KMKG WHERE SOME STRATUS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD COME ONSHORE. IT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
THE INLAND AREAS STARTING TO HEAT UP AND DRY OUT.

OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MIGHT BRING
SOME SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET THIS EVENING TO KMKG...BUT THAT
WOULD BE ABOUT IT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS INTO THE 3RD
PERIOD...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX
DOWN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION SETUP. THINKING 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AT
THIS POINT...WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. UNTIL THAT TIME...FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECTING MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE









000
FXUS63 KGRR 311937
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AFTER MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN ITEM OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRETCHING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON A SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. A STRONG LLJ
LOCATED UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BEND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
A LOSE A BIT OF PUNCH/SPEED. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
WITH MU CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OR 500 J/KG. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THOUGH TO KEEP STORMS IN THE FORECAST...NOTHING SEVERE.

ON THURSDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY UNDERGO A DIURNAL
FADE IN THE MORNING...TRYING TO REINTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME PREVALENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE EVENT...SO NOTHING TOO HEAVY.

OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS IN THE BEGINNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE ADDED THE THREAT FOR PCPN BACK INTO THE FCST FOR THE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
THAT THE UPPER WAVE THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WILL BRING THE SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO BRING PCPN CHCS TO THE AREA. ENOUGH WARM
ENOUGH AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY ON FRI TO KEEP PCPN RAIN. WE
DO EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW BY FRI EVENING AS COLD AIR IS
DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA BEHIND THE WAVE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER ON SAT AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THIS COMES WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRUSH THE AREA. THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN WILL COME
BACK ON SUN AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AND MOISTURE RETURNS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS FROM MON
THROUGH TUE FOR THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT RETURNS NORTH ON SUN WILL
BECOME STALLED OUT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL WAVES OF PCPN
ALONG IT...SO WE HAVE CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR MON AND TUE. SOME OF THE
PCPN INITIALLY COULD END UP BEING A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES WITH A SFC
HIGH TO OUR NORTH FUNNELING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN WITH WARMER AIR COMING IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND BEYOND AS A WRN TROUGH DIGS AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SWRLY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE ONLY REAL IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE RIGHT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AND MIXING OUT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE TERMINALS TO GO VFR BY 21Z.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE KMKG WHERE SOME STRATUS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD COME ONSHORE. IT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
THE INLAND AREAS STARTING TO HEAT UP AND DRY OUT.

OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MIGHT BRING
SOME SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET THIS EVENING TO KMKG...BUT THAT
WOULD BE ABOUT IT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS INTO THE 3RD
PERIOD...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX
DOWN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION SETUP. THINKING 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AT
THIS POINT...WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. UNTIL THAT TIME...FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECTING MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE









000
FXUS63 KMQT 311935
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.

TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 311935
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.

TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 311935
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.

TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE JUST FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE DIMINISHING TREND ALREADY.
AN AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.  THIS WAVE IS MUCH LIKE THE WAVE THIS
MORNING THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER ONE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ALREADY OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS.  THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO TIGHTEN
UP THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT ANY PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY FALL.  12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS NOT WARMING UP AS MUCH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALL
SNOW AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR THOSE AREAS.  AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER ARE LOOKING AT HOVERING AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT ROUND CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE NEXT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  ONCE THIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...

ADVANCING STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY FORCING ITS
TRANSLATION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY SIGNAL A REBOUNDING OF THE THERMAL FIELD
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPS REACHING 2-4C BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STRATOCU.
RESPECTABLE INSOLATION WILL, HOWEVER, BE OFFSET BY AN AUGMENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD BY THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM MID 40S IN THE THUMB AND
LAKE SHADOWED AREAS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING
60 IN WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACNW COAST SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFF THE DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C BY THURSDAY MORNING. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM SE TO SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
LAKE SHADOWING WILL SUPPRESS WARMING IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND
THE THUMB. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT RANGING FROM
LOWS AROUND 45 CLOSER TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND UPPER 30S EAST.

FURTHERMORE, THE LOCAL STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION AND LIGHT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE LAKES INTRODUCE THE PROSPECT FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING, PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FULL DAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP SW FLOW
EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CYCLE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO FORECASTING THE EXACT NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WAA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE HIGHS INTO
AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED SCENARIO
TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THURSDAY. THE NATURE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THURS AFTERNOON
IS NOT EASILY DIAGNOSED AT THIS LEAD TIME. HOWEVER, INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FEATURE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
DAY. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY IN
THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FROPA USHERS IN COOLER
AIR OVERNIGHT.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF ACTIVE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE ITS WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIP RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AND
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE PUT IN A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING INTO ALL RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDTIONS START TO IMPROVE WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER FROM THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB AREA BUT
EXPECTING PRECIP TO STAY TO THE EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. AREAS
OF FOG MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE
FROM THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORK IN OVER THE AREA.

FOR DTW...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....SS


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 311923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE JUST FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE DIMINISHING TREND ALREADY.
AN AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.  THIS WAVE IS MUCH LIKE THE WAVE THIS
MORNING THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER ONE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ALREADY OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS.  THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO TIGHTEN
UP THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT ANY PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY FALL.  12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS NOT WARMING UP AS MUCH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALL
SNOW AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR THOSE AREAS.  AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER ARE LOOKING AT HOVERING AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT ROUND CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE NEXT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  ONCE THIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...

ADVANCING STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY FORCING ITS
TRANSLATION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY SIGNAL A REBOUNDING OF THE THERMAL FIELD
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPS REACHING 2-4C BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STRATOCU.
RESPECTABLE INSOLATION WILL, HOWEVER, BE OFFSET BY AN AUGMENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD BY THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM MID 40S IN THE THUMB AND
LAKE SHADOWED AREAS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING
60 IN WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACNW COAST SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFF THE DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C BY THURSDAY MORNING. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM SE TO SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
LAKE SHADOWING WILL SUPPRESS WARMING IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND
THE THUMB. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT RANGING FROM
LOWS AROUND 45 CLOSER TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND UPPER 30S EAST.

FURTHERMORE, THE LOCAL STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION AND LIGHT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE LAKES INTRODUCE THE PROSPECT FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING, PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FULL DAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP SW FLOW
EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CYCLE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO FORECASTING THE EXACT NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WAA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE HIGHS INTO
AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED SCENARIO
TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THURSDAY. THE NATURE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THURS AFTERNOON
IS NOT EASILY DIAGNOSED AT THIS LEAD TIME. HOWEVER, INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FEATURE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
DAY. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY IN
THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FROPA USHERS IN COOLER
AIR OVERNIGHT.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF ACTIVE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE ITS WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIP RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AND
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE PUT IN A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING INTO ALL RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDTIONS START TO IMPROVE WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER FROM THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB AREA BUT
EXPECTING PRECIP TO STAY TO THE EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. AREAS
OF FOG MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE
FROM THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORK IN OVER THE AREA.

FOR DTW...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....SS


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE JUST FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE DIMINISHING TREND ALREADY.
AN AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.  THIS WAVE IS MUCH LIKE THE WAVE THIS
MORNING THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER ONE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ALREADY OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS.  THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO TIGHTEN
UP THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT ANY PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY FALL.  12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS NOT WARMING UP AS MUCH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALL
SNOW AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR THOSE AREAS.  AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER ARE LOOKING AT HOVERING AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT ROUND CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE NEXT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  ONCE THIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...

ADVANCING STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY FORCING ITS
TRANSLATION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY SIGNAL A REBOUNDING OF THE THERMAL FIELD
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPS REACHING 2-4C BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STRATOCU.
RESPECTABLE INSOLATION WILL, HOWEVER, BE OFFSET BY AN AUGMENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD BY THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM MID 40S IN THE THUMB AND
LAKE SHADOWED AREAS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING
60 IN WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACNW COAST SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFF THE DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C BY THURSDAY MORNING. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM SE TO SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
LAKE SHADOWING WILL SUPPRESS WARMING IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND
THE THUMB. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT RANGING FROM
LOWS AROUND 45 CLOSER TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND UPPER 30S EAST.

FURTHERMORE, THE LOCAL STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION AND LIGHT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE LAKES INTRODUCE THE PROSPECT FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING, PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FULL DAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP SW FLOW
EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CYCLE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO FORECASTING THE EXACT NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WAA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE HIGHS INTO
AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED SCENARIO
TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THURSDAY. THE NATURE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THURS AFTERNOON
IS NOT EASILY DIAGNOSED AT THIS LEAD TIME. HOWEVER, INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FEATURE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
DAY. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY IN
THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FROPA USHERS IN COOLER
AIR OVERNIGHT.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF ACTIVE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE ITS WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIP RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AND
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE PUT IN A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING INTO ALL RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDTIONS START TO IMPROVE WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER FROM THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB AREA BUT
EXPECTING PRECIP TO STAY TO THE EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. AREAS
OF FOG MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE
FROM THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORK IN OVER THE AREA.

FOR DTW...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....SS


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 311923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE JUST FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE DIMINISHING TREND ALREADY.
AN AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.  THIS WAVE IS MUCH LIKE THE WAVE THIS
MORNING THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER ONE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ALREADY OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS.  THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO TIGHTEN
UP THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT ANY PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY FALL.  12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS NOT WARMING UP AS MUCH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALL
SNOW AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR THOSE AREAS.  AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER ARE LOOKING AT HOVERING AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT ROUND CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE NEXT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  ONCE THIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...

ADVANCING STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY FORCING ITS
TRANSLATION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY SIGNAL A REBOUNDING OF THE THERMAL FIELD
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPS REACHING 2-4C BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STRATOCU.
RESPECTABLE INSOLATION WILL, HOWEVER, BE OFFSET BY AN AUGMENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD BY THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM MID 40S IN THE THUMB AND
LAKE SHADOWED AREAS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING
60 IN WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACNW COAST SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFF THE DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C BY THURSDAY MORNING. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM SE TO SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
LAKE SHADOWING WILL SUPPRESS WARMING IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND
THE THUMB. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT RANGING FROM
LOWS AROUND 45 CLOSER TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND UPPER 30S EAST.

FURTHERMORE, THE LOCAL STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION AND LIGHT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE LAKES INTRODUCE THE PROSPECT FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING, PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FULL DAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP SW FLOW
EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CYCLE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO FORECASTING THE EXACT NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WAA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE HIGHS INTO
AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED SCENARIO
TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THURSDAY. THE NATURE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THURS AFTERNOON
IS NOT EASILY DIAGNOSED AT THIS LEAD TIME. HOWEVER, INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FEATURE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
DAY. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY IN
THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FROPA USHERS IN COOLER
AIR OVERNIGHT.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF ACTIVE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE ITS WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIP RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AND
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE PUT IN A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING INTO ALL RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDTIONS START TO IMPROVE WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER FROM THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB AREA BUT
EXPECTING PRECIP TO STAY TO THE EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. AREAS
OF FOG MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE
FROM THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORK IN OVER THE AREA.

FOR DTW...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....SS


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 311923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE JUST FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE DIMINISHING TREND ALREADY.
AN AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.  THIS WAVE IS MUCH LIKE THE WAVE THIS
MORNING THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER ONE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ALREADY OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS.  THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO TIGHTEN
UP THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT ANY PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY FALL.  12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS NOT WARMING UP AS MUCH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALL
SNOW AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR THOSE AREAS.  AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER ARE LOOKING AT HOVERING AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT ROUND CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE NEXT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  ONCE THIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...

ADVANCING STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY FORCING ITS
TRANSLATION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY SIGNAL A REBOUNDING OF THE THERMAL FIELD
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPS REACHING 2-4C BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STRATOCU.
RESPECTABLE INSOLATION WILL, HOWEVER, BE OFFSET BY AN AUGMENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD BY THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM MID 40S IN THE THUMB AND
LAKE SHADOWED AREAS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING
60 IN WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACNW COAST SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFF THE DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C BY THURSDAY MORNING. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM SE TO SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
LAKE SHADOWING WILL SUPPRESS WARMING IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND
THE THUMB. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT RANGING FROM
LOWS AROUND 45 CLOSER TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND UPPER 30S EAST.

FURTHERMORE, THE LOCAL STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION AND LIGHT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE LAKES INTRODUCE THE PROSPECT FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING, PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FULL DAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP SW FLOW
EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CYCLE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO FORECASTING THE EXACT NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WAA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE HIGHS INTO
AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED SCENARIO
TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THURSDAY. THE NATURE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THURS AFTERNOON
IS NOT EASILY DIAGNOSED AT THIS LEAD TIME. HOWEVER, INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FEATURE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
DAY. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY IN
THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FROPA USHERS IN COOLER
AIR OVERNIGHT.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF ACTIVE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE ITS WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIP RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AND
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE PUT IN A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING INTO ALL RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDTIONS START TO IMPROVE WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER FROM THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB AREA BUT
EXPECTING PRECIP TO STAY TO THE EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. AREAS
OF FOG MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE
FROM THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORK IN OVER THE AREA.

FOR DTW...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....SS


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 311923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE JUST FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE DIMINISHING TREND ALREADY.
AN AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.  THIS WAVE IS MUCH LIKE THE WAVE THIS
MORNING THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER ONE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ALREADY OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS.  THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO TIGHTEN
UP THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT ANY PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY FALL.  12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS NOT WARMING UP AS MUCH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALL
SNOW AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR THOSE AREAS.  AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER ARE LOOKING AT HOVERING AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT ROUND CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE NEXT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  ONCE THIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...

ADVANCING STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY FORCING ITS
TRANSLATION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY SIGNAL A REBOUNDING OF THE THERMAL FIELD
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPS REACHING 2-4C BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STRATOCU.
RESPECTABLE INSOLATION WILL, HOWEVER, BE OFFSET BY AN AUGMENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD BY THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM MID 40S IN THE THUMB AND
LAKE SHADOWED AREAS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING
60 IN WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACNW COAST SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFF THE DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C BY THURSDAY MORNING. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM SE TO SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
LAKE SHADOWING WILL SUPPRESS WARMING IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND
THE THUMB. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT RANGING FROM
LOWS AROUND 45 CLOSER TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND UPPER 30S EAST.

FURTHERMORE, THE LOCAL STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION AND LIGHT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE LAKES INTRODUCE THE PROSPECT FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING, PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FULL DAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP SW FLOW
EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CYCLE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO FORECASTING THE EXACT NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WAA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE HIGHS INTO
AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED SCENARIO
TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THURSDAY. THE NATURE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THURS AFTERNOON
IS NOT EASILY DIAGNOSED AT THIS LEAD TIME. HOWEVER, INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FEATURE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
DAY. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY IN
THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FROPA USHERS IN COOLER
AIR OVERNIGHT.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF ACTIVE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE ITS WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIP RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AND
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE PUT IN A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING INTO ALL RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY BUT STABILITY WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDTIONS START TO IMPROVE WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER FROM THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB AREA BUT
EXPECTING PRECIP TO STAY TO THE EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. AREAS
OF FOG MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE
FROM THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORK IN OVER THE AREA.

FOR DTW...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....SS


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 311836
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
236 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1005 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX RADAR WAS VOID OF RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS BUT RELATIVELY MINOR BUT INCLUDE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID
SLOW UP THE TIMING JUST A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. REMAINING COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW TO PLN AND APN LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. CIGS INCREASE WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ABOUT MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 311836
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
236 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1005 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX RADAR WAS VOID OF RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS BUT RELATIVELY MINOR BUT INCLUDE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID
SLOW UP THE TIMING JUST A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. REMAINING COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW TO PLN AND APN LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. CIGS INCREASE WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ABOUT MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 311836
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
236 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1005 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX RADAR WAS VOID OF RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS BUT RELATIVELY MINOR BUT INCLUDE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID
SLOW UP THE TIMING JUST A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. REMAINING COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW TO PLN AND APN LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. CIGS INCREASE WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ABOUT MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 311836
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
236 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1005 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX RADAR WAS VOID OF RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS BUT RELATIVELY MINOR BUT INCLUDE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID
SLOW UP THE TIMING JUST A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. REMAINING COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW TO PLN AND APN LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. CIGS INCREASE WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ABOUT MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 311836
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
236 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1005 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX RADAR WAS VOID OF RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS BUT RELATIVELY MINOR BUT INCLUDE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID
SLOW UP THE TIMING JUST A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. REMAINING COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW TO PLN AND APN LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. CIGS INCREASE WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ABOUT MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 311836
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
236 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1005 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX RADAR WAS VOID OF RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS BUT RELATIVELY MINOR BUT INCLUDE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID
SLOW UP THE TIMING JUST A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. REMAINING COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW TO PLN AND APN LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. CIGS INCREASE WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ABOUT MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 311757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.

TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.

FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 311757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.

TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.

FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311745
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
145 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.AVIATION...

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDTIONS START TO IMPROVE WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER FROM THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB AREA BUT
EXPECTING PRECIP TO STAY TO THE EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. AREAS
OF FOG MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE
FROM THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORK IN OVER THE AREA.

FOR DTW...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SMALL BUT INTENSE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST BY
MID MORNING. THE GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
ALL RAIN IN THE DETROIT AREA...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...AND ALL SNOW TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE
I-69 TO M-59 CORRIDORS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TYPE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY RATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT. OBSERVATIONS
LOCALLY HAVE ALREADY RANGED FROM LIGHT RAIN TO HEAVY/WET SNOW AND
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SINCE 2 AM RESULTING IN NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT TREND
TOWARD MORE SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD WHILE THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION FOCUSES THE MOST INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. EXPECT AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION WITHIN THIS MAIN BAND BEFORE IT SLIDES EASTWARD.
THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE ALSO BROADENS ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH
OR LESS FARTHER NORTH TO CAPTURE SOME HIGHER ALTITUDE
FGEN/DEFORMATION ACTIVATION THAT WILL PRODUCE ALL SNOW IN THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING LEAVING
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEUTRAL ON LIGHT WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE THUMB.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SIMILAR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WHICH WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT AND
BRUSH THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S WAVE IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS BUT WILL HAVE
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO NEGATIVE
ALTERATION BY THE LARGER SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION DURING THE NIGHT.
THE NEW MODEL CYCLE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARED APART BY A
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
MORNING SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. THE TREND AMONG THE 00Z MODELS SHOWS
THE WAVE HANGING ON LONG ENOUGH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NW TO SE FROM THE TRI CITIES THROUGH THE
THUMB REGION FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE LONG WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOW A BAGGY MSLP
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO THE START THE DAY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL...PROGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO SHARPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. VERY STABLE
PROFILE FROM 2 TO 13 KFT AGL LIMITS ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE WARM ADVECTION. PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GOOD
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50
DEGREE MARK AWAY FROM AREA WATERS. WILL LIKELY WITNESS CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE PEOPLE NEAR THE LAKE.

AN INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE RIDER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN A
TRIPLE POINT REGION...AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10C WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MODELS FORECAST A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLIES. FIRST FORECAST QUESTION IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IS ON WHAT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL IS FOR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BRING IN
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION EARLY AND MUDDY THE SITUATION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SUPPORT A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS PRE EXISTING CONVECTION FROM MN/IA/SD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE. THE OTHER FORECAST QUESTION MARK IS ON OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A SLOWER PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 750 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DO
NOT AGREE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE VALUES...THERE IS CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY FORECASTED ON THE BACK OF STEEP 800-600 MB LAPSE RATES.
DID GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.

THE OTHER IMPORTANT MATTER TO HIGHLIGHT IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING STRIPING ACROSS THE
STATE IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETLET PUSHING
THROUGH IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION. STRONG LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS
ARE PROGGED FOR THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. DEFINITELY
INTERESTING. FOR NOW MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS REMAINS ADEQUATE.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL UNIFORMLY RESPOND NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY MUTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM PUSH OF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...WITH WIND SPEEDS
LIKELY REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SS
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311745
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
145 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.AVIATION...

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDTIONS START TO IMPROVE WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER FROM THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB AREA BUT
EXPECTING PRECIP TO STAY TO THE EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. AREAS
OF FOG MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE
FROM THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORK IN OVER THE AREA.

FOR DTW...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SMALL BUT INTENSE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST BY
MID MORNING. THE GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
ALL RAIN IN THE DETROIT AREA...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...AND ALL SNOW TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE
I-69 TO M-59 CORRIDORS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TYPE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY RATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT. OBSERVATIONS
LOCALLY HAVE ALREADY RANGED FROM LIGHT RAIN TO HEAVY/WET SNOW AND
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SINCE 2 AM RESULTING IN NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT TREND
TOWARD MORE SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD WHILE THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION FOCUSES THE MOST INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. EXPECT AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION WITHIN THIS MAIN BAND BEFORE IT SLIDES EASTWARD.
THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE ALSO BROADENS ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH
OR LESS FARTHER NORTH TO CAPTURE SOME HIGHER ALTITUDE
FGEN/DEFORMATION ACTIVATION THAT WILL PRODUCE ALL SNOW IN THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING LEAVING
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEUTRAL ON LIGHT WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE THUMB.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SIMILAR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WHICH WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT AND
BRUSH THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S WAVE IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS BUT WILL HAVE
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO NEGATIVE
ALTERATION BY THE LARGER SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION DURING THE NIGHT.
THE NEW MODEL CYCLE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARED APART BY A
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
MORNING SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. THE TREND AMONG THE 00Z MODELS SHOWS
THE WAVE HANGING ON LONG ENOUGH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NW TO SE FROM THE TRI CITIES THROUGH THE
THUMB REGION FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE LONG WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOW A BAGGY MSLP
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO THE START THE DAY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL...PROGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO SHARPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. VERY STABLE
PROFILE FROM 2 TO 13 KFT AGL LIMITS ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE WARM ADVECTION. PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GOOD
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50
DEGREE MARK AWAY FROM AREA WATERS. WILL LIKELY WITNESS CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE PEOPLE NEAR THE LAKE.

AN INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE RIDER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN A
TRIPLE POINT REGION...AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10C WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MODELS FORECAST A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLIES. FIRST FORECAST QUESTION IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IS ON WHAT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL IS FOR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BRING IN
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION EARLY AND MUDDY THE SITUATION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SUPPORT A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS PRE EXISTING CONVECTION FROM MN/IA/SD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE. THE OTHER FORECAST QUESTION MARK IS ON OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A SLOWER PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 750 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DO
NOT AGREE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE VALUES...THERE IS CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY FORECASTED ON THE BACK OF STEEP 800-600 MB LAPSE RATES.
DID GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.

THE OTHER IMPORTANT MATTER TO HIGHLIGHT IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING STRIPING ACROSS THE
STATE IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETLET PUSHING
THROUGH IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION. STRONG LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS
ARE PROGGED FOR THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. DEFINITELY
INTERESTING. FOR NOW MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS REMAINS ADEQUATE.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL UNIFORMLY RESPOND NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY MUTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM PUSH OF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...WITH WIND SPEEDS
LIKELY REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SS
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 311745
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
145 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.AVIATION...

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDTIONS START TO IMPROVE WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER FROM THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB AREA BUT
EXPECTING PRECIP TO STAY TO THE EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. AREAS
OF FOG MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE
FROM THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORK IN OVER THE AREA.

FOR DTW...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SMALL BUT INTENSE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST BY
MID MORNING. THE GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
ALL RAIN IN THE DETROIT AREA...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...AND ALL SNOW TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE
I-69 TO M-59 CORRIDORS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TYPE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY RATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT. OBSERVATIONS
LOCALLY HAVE ALREADY RANGED FROM LIGHT RAIN TO HEAVY/WET SNOW AND
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SINCE 2 AM RESULTING IN NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT TREND
TOWARD MORE SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD WHILE THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION FOCUSES THE MOST INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. EXPECT AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION WITHIN THIS MAIN BAND BEFORE IT SLIDES EASTWARD.
THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE ALSO BROADENS ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH
OR LESS FARTHER NORTH TO CAPTURE SOME HIGHER ALTITUDE
FGEN/DEFORMATION ACTIVATION THAT WILL PRODUCE ALL SNOW IN THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING LEAVING
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEUTRAL ON LIGHT WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE THUMB.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SIMILAR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WHICH WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT AND
BRUSH THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S WAVE IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS BUT WILL HAVE
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO NEGATIVE
ALTERATION BY THE LARGER SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION DURING THE NIGHT.
THE NEW MODEL CYCLE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARED APART BY A
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
MORNING SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. THE TREND AMONG THE 00Z MODELS SHOWS
THE WAVE HANGING ON LONG ENOUGH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NW TO SE FROM THE TRI CITIES THROUGH THE
THUMB REGION FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE LONG WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOW A BAGGY MSLP
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO THE START THE DAY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL...PROGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO SHARPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. VERY STABLE
PROFILE FROM 2 TO 13 KFT AGL LIMITS ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE WARM ADVECTION. PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GOOD
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50
DEGREE MARK AWAY FROM AREA WATERS. WILL LIKELY WITNESS CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE PEOPLE NEAR THE LAKE.

AN INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE RIDER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN A
TRIPLE POINT REGION...AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10C WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MODELS FORECAST A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLIES. FIRST FORECAST QUESTION IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IS ON WHAT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL IS FOR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BRING IN
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION EARLY AND MUDDY THE SITUATION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SUPPORT A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS PRE EXISTING CONVECTION FROM MN/IA/SD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE. THE OTHER FORECAST QUESTION MARK IS ON OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A SLOWER PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 750 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DO
NOT AGREE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE VALUES...THERE IS CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY FORECASTED ON THE BACK OF STEEP 800-600 MB LAPSE RATES.
DID GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.

THE OTHER IMPORTANT MATTER TO HIGHLIGHT IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING STRIPING ACROSS THE
STATE IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETLET PUSHING
THROUGH IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION. STRONG LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS
ARE PROGGED FOR THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. DEFINITELY
INTERESTING. FOR NOW MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS REMAINS ADEQUATE.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL UNIFORMLY RESPOND NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY MUTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM PUSH OF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...WITH WIND SPEEDS
LIKELY REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SS
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311745
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
145 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.AVIATION...

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDTIONS START TO IMPROVE WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER FROM THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB AREA BUT
EXPECTING PRECIP TO STAY TO THE EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. AREAS
OF FOG MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE
FROM THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORK IN OVER THE AREA.

FOR DTW...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SMALL BUT INTENSE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST BY
MID MORNING. THE GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
ALL RAIN IN THE DETROIT AREA...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...AND ALL SNOW TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE
I-69 TO M-59 CORRIDORS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TYPE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY RATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT. OBSERVATIONS
LOCALLY HAVE ALREADY RANGED FROM LIGHT RAIN TO HEAVY/WET SNOW AND
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SINCE 2 AM RESULTING IN NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT TREND
TOWARD MORE SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD WHILE THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION FOCUSES THE MOST INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. EXPECT AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION WITHIN THIS MAIN BAND BEFORE IT SLIDES EASTWARD.
THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE ALSO BROADENS ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH
OR LESS FARTHER NORTH TO CAPTURE SOME HIGHER ALTITUDE
FGEN/DEFORMATION ACTIVATION THAT WILL PRODUCE ALL SNOW IN THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING LEAVING
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEUTRAL ON LIGHT WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE THUMB.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SIMILAR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WHICH WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT AND
BRUSH THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S WAVE IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS BUT WILL HAVE
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO NEGATIVE
ALTERATION BY THE LARGER SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION DURING THE NIGHT.
THE NEW MODEL CYCLE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARED APART BY A
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
MORNING SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. THE TREND AMONG THE 00Z MODELS SHOWS
THE WAVE HANGING ON LONG ENOUGH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NW TO SE FROM THE TRI CITIES THROUGH THE
THUMB REGION FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE LONG WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOW A BAGGY MSLP
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO THE START THE DAY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL...PROGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO SHARPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. VERY STABLE
PROFILE FROM 2 TO 13 KFT AGL LIMITS ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE WARM ADVECTION. PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GOOD
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50
DEGREE MARK AWAY FROM AREA WATERS. WILL LIKELY WITNESS CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE PEOPLE NEAR THE LAKE.

AN INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE RIDER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN A
TRIPLE POINT REGION...AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10C WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MODELS FORECAST A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLIES. FIRST FORECAST QUESTION IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IS ON WHAT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL IS FOR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BRING IN
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION EARLY AND MUDDY THE SITUATION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SUPPORT A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS PRE EXISTING CONVECTION FROM MN/IA/SD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE. THE OTHER FORECAST QUESTION MARK IS ON OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A SLOWER PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 750 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DO
NOT AGREE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE VALUES...THERE IS CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY FORECASTED ON THE BACK OF STEEP 800-600 MB LAPSE RATES.
DID GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.

THE OTHER IMPORTANT MATTER TO HIGHLIGHT IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING STRIPING ACROSS THE
STATE IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETLET PUSHING
THROUGH IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION. STRONG LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS
ARE PROGGED FOR THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. DEFINITELY
INTERESTING. FOR NOW MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS REMAINS ADEQUATE.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL UNIFORMLY RESPOND NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY MUTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM PUSH OF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...WITH WIND SPEEDS
LIKELY REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SS
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311745
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
145 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.AVIATION...

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDTIONS START TO IMPROVE WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER FROM THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB AREA BUT
EXPECTING PRECIP TO STAY TO THE EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. AREAS
OF FOG MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE
FROM THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORK IN OVER THE AREA.

FOR DTW...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SMALL BUT INTENSE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST BY
MID MORNING. THE GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
ALL RAIN IN THE DETROIT AREA...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...AND ALL SNOW TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE
I-69 TO M-59 CORRIDORS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TYPE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY RATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT. OBSERVATIONS
LOCALLY HAVE ALREADY RANGED FROM LIGHT RAIN TO HEAVY/WET SNOW AND
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SINCE 2 AM RESULTING IN NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT TREND
TOWARD MORE SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD WHILE THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION FOCUSES THE MOST INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. EXPECT AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION WITHIN THIS MAIN BAND BEFORE IT SLIDES EASTWARD.
THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE ALSO BROADENS ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH
OR LESS FARTHER NORTH TO CAPTURE SOME HIGHER ALTITUDE
FGEN/DEFORMATION ACTIVATION THAT WILL PRODUCE ALL SNOW IN THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING LEAVING
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEUTRAL ON LIGHT WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE THUMB.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SIMILAR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WHICH WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT AND
BRUSH THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S WAVE IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS BUT WILL HAVE
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO NEGATIVE
ALTERATION BY THE LARGER SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION DURING THE NIGHT.
THE NEW MODEL CYCLE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARED APART BY A
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
MORNING SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. THE TREND AMONG THE 00Z MODELS SHOWS
THE WAVE HANGING ON LONG ENOUGH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NW TO SE FROM THE TRI CITIES THROUGH THE
THUMB REGION FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE LONG WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOW A BAGGY MSLP
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO THE START THE DAY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL...PROGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO SHARPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. VERY STABLE
PROFILE FROM 2 TO 13 KFT AGL LIMITS ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE WARM ADVECTION. PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GOOD
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50
DEGREE MARK AWAY FROM AREA WATERS. WILL LIKELY WITNESS CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE PEOPLE NEAR THE LAKE.

AN INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE RIDER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN A
TRIPLE POINT REGION...AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10C WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MODELS FORECAST A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLIES. FIRST FORECAST QUESTION IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IS ON WHAT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL IS FOR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BRING IN
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION EARLY AND MUDDY THE SITUATION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SUPPORT A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS PRE EXISTING CONVECTION FROM MN/IA/SD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE. THE OTHER FORECAST QUESTION MARK IS ON OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A SLOWER PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 750 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DO
NOT AGREE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE VALUES...THERE IS CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY FORECASTED ON THE BACK OF STEEP 800-600 MB LAPSE RATES.
DID GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.

THE OTHER IMPORTANT MATTER TO HIGHLIGHT IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING STRIPING ACROSS THE
STATE IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETLET PUSHING
THROUGH IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION. STRONG LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS
ARE PROGGED FOR THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. DEFINITELY
INTERESTING. FOR NOW MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS REMAINS ADEQUATE.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL UNIFORMLY RESPOND NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY MUTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM PUSH OF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...WITH WIND SPEEDS
LIKELY REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SS
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311745
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
145 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.AVIATION...

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDTIONS START TO IMPROVE WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER FROM THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB AREA BUT
EXPECTING PRECIP TO STAY TO THE EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. AREAS
OF FOG MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE
FROM THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORK IN OVER THE AREA.

FOR DTW...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SMALL BUT INTENSE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST BY
MID MORNING. THE GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
ALL RAIN IN THE DETROIT AREA...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...AND ALL SNOW TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE
I-69 TO M-59 CORRIDORS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TYPE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY RATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT. OBSERVATIONS
LOCALLY HAVE ALREADY RANGED FROM LIGHT RAIN TO HEAVY/WET SNOW AND
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SINCE 2 AM RESULTING IN NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT TREND
TOWARD MORE SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD WHILE THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION FOCUSES THE MOST INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. EXPECT AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION WITHIN THIS MAIN BAND BEFORE IT SLIDES EASTWARD.
THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE ALSO BROADENS ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH
OR LESS FARTHER NORTH TO CAPTURE SOME HIGHER ALTITUDE
FGEN/DEFORMATION ACTIVATION THAT WILL PRODUCE ALL SNOW IN THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING LEAVING
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEUTRAL ON LIGHT WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE THUMB.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SIMILAR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WHICH WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT AND
BRUSH THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S WAVE IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS BUT WILL HAVE
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO NEGATIVE
ALTERATION BY THE LARGER SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION DURING THE NIGHT.
THE NEW MODEL CYCLE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARED APART BY A
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
MORNING SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. THE TREND AMONG THE 00Z MODELS SHOWS
THE WAVE HANGING ON LONG ENOUGH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NW TO SE FROM THE TRI CITIES THROUGH THE
THUMB REGION FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE LONG WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOW A BAGGY MSLP
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO THE START THE DAY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL...PROGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO SHARPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. VERY STABLE
PROFILE FROM 2 TO 13 KFT AGL LIMITS ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE WARM ADVECTION. PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GOOD
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50
DEGREE MARK AWAY FROM AREA WATERS. WILL LIKELY WITNESS CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE PEOPLE NEAR THE LAKE.

AN INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE RIDER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN A
TRIPLE POINT REGION...AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10C WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MODELS FORECAST A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLIES. FIRST FORECAST QUESTION IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IS ON WHAT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL IS FOR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BRING IN
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION EARLY AND MUDDY THE SITUATION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SUPPORT A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS PRE EXISTING CONVECTION FROM MN/IA/SD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE. THE OTHER FORECAST QUESTION MARK IS ON OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A SLOWER PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 750 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DO
NOT AGREE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE VALUES...THERE IS CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY FORECASTED ON THE BACK OF STEEP 800-600 MB LAPSE RATES.
DID GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.

THE OTHER IMPORTANT MATTER TO HIGHLIGHT IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING STRIPING ACROSS THE
STATE IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETLET PUSHING
THROUGH IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION. STRONG LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS
ARE PROGGED FOR THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. DEFINITELY
INTERESTING. FOR NOW MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS REMAINS ADEQUATE.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL UNIFORMLY RESPOND NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY MUTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM PUSH OF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...WITH WIND SPEEDS
LIKELY REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SS
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 311738
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 8 AM
THIS MORNING. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 50 TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY...BUT
SNOW OR A MIX COULD CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARM THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONGOING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 AM. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 2:15 AM. ASOS INDICATES LIGHT
SNOW IN BIG RAPIDS AND ALMA. WITH MODERATE FGEN FORCING...MAIN
CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 6 AM CENTERED ON A
BALDWIN TO MT. PLEASANT AXIS. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND SLICK AND SLUSHY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DOES TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS THE
ONLY RESULT.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 50-55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MI ON THURSDAY.
925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 50S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40-50 KTS...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR
THUNDER THIS SPRING. THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SFC LOW IS MOVING AWAY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE ONLY REAL IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE RIGHT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AND MIXING OUT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE TERMINALS TO GO VFR BY 21Z.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE KMKG WHERE SOME STRATUS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD COME ONSHORE. IT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
THE INLAND AREAS STARTING TO HEAT UP AND DRY OUT.

OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MIGHT BRING
SOME SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET THIS EVENING TO KMKG...BUT THAT
WOULD BE ABOUT IT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK WESTERLY LATE IN THE
DAY. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 311738
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 8 AM
THIS MORNING. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 50 TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY...BUT
SNOW OR A MIX COULD CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARM THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONGOING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 AM. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 2:15 AM. ASOS INDICATES LIGHT
SNOW IN BIG RAPIDS AND ALMA. WITH MODERATE FGEN FORCING...MAIN
CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 6 AM CENTERED ON A
BALDWIN TO MT. PLEASANT AXIS. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND SLICK AND SLUSHY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DOES TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS THE
ONLY RESULT.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 50-55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MI ON THURSDAY.
925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 50S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40-50 KTS...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR
THUNDER THIS SPRING. THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SFC LOW IS MOVING AWAY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE ONLY REAL IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE RIGHT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AND MIXING OUT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE TERMINALS TO GO VFR BY 21Z.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE KMKG WHERE SOME STRATUS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD COME ONSHORE. IT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
THE INLAND AREAS STARTING TO HEAT UP AND DRY OUT.

OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MIGHT BRING
SOME SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET THIS EVENING TO KMKG...BUT THAT
WOULD BE ABOUT IT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK WESTERLY LATE IN THE
DAY. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 311738
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 8 AM
THIS MORNING. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 50 TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY...BUT
SNOW OR A MIX COULD CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARM THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONGOING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 AM. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 2:15 AM. ASOS INDICATES LIGHT
SNOW IN BIG RAPIDS AND ALMA. WITH MODERATE FGEN FORCING...MAIN
CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 6 AM CENTERED ON A
BALDWIN TO MT. PLEASANT AXIS. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND SLICK AND SLUSHY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DOES TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS THE
ONLY RESULT.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 50-55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MI ON THURSDAY.
925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 50S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40-50 KTS...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR
THUNDER THIS SPRING. THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SFC LOW IS MOVING AWAY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE ONLY REAL IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE RIGHT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AND MIXING OUT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE TERMINALS TO GO VFR BY 21Z.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE KMKG WHERE SOME STRATUS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD COME ONSHORE. IT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
THE INLAND AREAS STARTING TO HEAT UP AND DRY OUT.

OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MIGHT BRING
SOME SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET THIS EVENING TO KMKG...BUT THAT
WOULD BE ABOUT IT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK WESTERLY LATE IN THE
DAY. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 311738
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 8 AM
THIS MORNING. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 50 TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY...BUT
SNOW OR A MIX COULD CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARM THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONGOING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 AM. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 2:15 AM. ASOS INDICATES LIGHT
SNOW IN BIG RAPIDS AND ALMA. WITH MODERATE FGEN FORCING...MAIN
CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 6 AM CENTERED ON A
BALDWIN TO MT. PLEASANT AXIS. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND SLICK AND SLUSHY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DOES TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS THE
ONLY RESULT.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 50-55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MI ON THURSDAY.
925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 50S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40-50 KTS...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR
THUNDER THIS SPRING. THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SFC LOW IS MOVING AWAY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE ONLY REAL IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE RIGHT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AND MIXING OUT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE TERMINALS TO GO VFR BY 21Z.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE KMKG WHERE SOME STRATUS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD COME ONSHORE. IT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
THE INLAND AREAS STARTING TO HEAT UP AND DRY OUT.

OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MIGHT BRING
SOME SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET THIS EVENING TO KMKG...BUT THAT
WOULD BE ABOUT IT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK WESTERLY LATE IN THE
DAY. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 311521
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1121 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 8 AM
THIS MORNING. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 50 TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY...BUT
SNOW OR A MIX COULD CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARM THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONGOING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 AM. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 2:15 AM. ASOS INDICATES LIGHT
SNOW IN BIG RAPIDS AND ALMA. WITH MODERATE FGEN FORCING...MAIN
CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 6 AM CENTERED ON A
BALDWIN TO MT. PLEASANT AXIS. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND SLICK AND SLUSHY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DOES TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS THE
ONLY RESULT.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 50-55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MI ON THURSDAY.
925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 50S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40-50 KTS...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR
THUNDER THIS SPRING. THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SFC LOW IS MOVING AWAY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AREAS OF IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE...BECOMING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN
GOING NORTHEAST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK WESTERLY LATE IN THE
DAY. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 311521
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1121 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 8 AM
THIS MORNING. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 50 TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY...BUT
SNOW OR A MIX COULD CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARM THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONGOING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 AM. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 2:15 AM. ASOS INDICATES LIGHT
SNOW IN BIG RAPIDS AND ALMA. WITH MODERATE FGEN FORCING...MAIN
CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 6 AM CENTERED ON A
BALDWIN TO MT. PLEASANT AXIS. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND SLICK AND SLUSHY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DOES TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS THE
ONLY RESULT.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 50-55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MI ON THURSDAY.
925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 50S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40-50 KTS...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR
THUNDER THIS SPRING. THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SFC LOW IS MOVING AWAY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AREAS OF IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE...BECOMING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN
GOING NORTHEAST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK WESTERLY LATE IN THE
DAY. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 311521
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1121 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 8 AM
THIS MORNING. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 50 TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY...BUT
SNOW OR A MIX COULD CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARM THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONGOING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 AM. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 2:15 AM. ASOS INDICATES LIGHT
SNOW IN BIG RAPIDS AND ALMA. WITH MODERATE FGEN FORCING...MAIN
CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 6 AM CENTERED ON A
BALDWIN TO MT. PLEASANT AXIS. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND SLICK AND SLUSHY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DOES TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS THE
ONLY RESULT.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 50-55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MI ON THURSDAY.
925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 50S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40-50 KTS...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR
THUNDER THIS SPRING. THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SFC LOW IS MOVING AWAY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AREAS OF IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE...BECOMING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN
GOING NORTHEAST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK WESTERLY LATE IN THE
DAY. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 311521
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1121 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 8 AM
THIS MORNING. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 50 TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY...BUT
SNOW OR A MIX COULD CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARM THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONGOING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 AM. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 2:15 AM. ASOS INDICATES LIGHT
SNOW IN BIG RAPIDS AND ALMA. WITH MODERATE FGEN FORCING...MAIN
CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 6 AM CENTERED ON A
BALDWIN TO MT. PLEASANT AXIS. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND SLICK AND SLUSHY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DOES TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS THE
ONLY RESULT.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 50-55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MI ON THURSDAY.
925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 50S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40-50 KTS...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR
THUNDER THIS SPRING. THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SFC LOW IS MOVING AWAY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AREAS OF IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE...BECOMING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN
GOING NORTHEAST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK WESTERLY LATE IN THE
DAY. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KAPX 311512
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1112 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1005 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX RADAR WAS VOID OF RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS BUT RELATIVELY MINOR BUT INCLUDE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID
SLOW UP THE TIMING JUST A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. REMAINING COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MBL/APN THIS MORNING...WITH MID CLOUDS
ROLLING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW/MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE AT PLN/APN LATE AFTERNOON TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 311512
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1112 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1005 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX RADAR WAS VOID OF RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS BUT RELATIVELY MINOR BUT INCLUDE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID
SLOW UP THE TIMING JUST A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. REMAINING COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MBL/APN THIS MORNING...WITH MID CLOUDS
ROLLING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW/MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE AT PLN/APN LATE AFTERNOON TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 311512
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1112 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1005 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX RADAR WAS VOID OF RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS BUT RELATIVELY MINOR BUT INCLUDE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID
SLOW UP THE TIMING JUST A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. REMAINING COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MBL/APN THIS MORNING...WITH MID CLOUDS
ROLLING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW/MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE AT PLN/APN LATE AFTERNOON TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 311512
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1112 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1005 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE APX RADAR WAS VOID OF RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS BUT RELATIVELY MINOR BUT INCLUDE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID
SLOW UP THE TIMING JUST A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. REMAINING COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MBL/APN THIS MORNING...WITH MID CLOUDS
ROLLING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW/MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE AT PLN/APN LATE AFTERNOON TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KGRR 311140
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 8 AM
THIS MORNING. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 50 TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY...BUT
SNOW OR A MIX COULD CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARM THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONGOING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 AM. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 2:15 AM. ASOS INDICATES LIGHT
SNOW IN BIG RAPIDS AND ALMA. WITH MODERATE FGEN FORCING...MAIN
CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 6 AM CENTERED ON A
BALDWIN TO MT. PLEASANT AXIS. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND SLICK AND SLUSHY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DOES TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS THE
ONLY RESULT.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 50-55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MI ON THURSDAY.
925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 50S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40-50 KTS...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR
THUNDER THIS SPRING. THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SFC LOW IS MOVING AWAY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AREAS OF IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE...BECOMING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN
GOING NORTHEAST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK WESTERLY LATE IN THE
DAY. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW RIVERS HAD MINOR UPTICKS IN LEVELS FROM THE PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY. RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. NO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
TONIGHT... SO RIVERS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 311140
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 8 AM
THIS MORNING. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 50 TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY...BUT
SNOW OR A MIX COULD CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARM THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONGOING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 AM. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 2:15 AM. ASOS INDICATES LIGHT
SNOW IN BIG RAPIDS AND ALMA. WITH MODERATE FGEN FORCING...MAIN
CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 6 AM CENTERED ON A
BALDWIN TO MT. PLEASANT AXIS. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND SLICK AND SLUSHY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DOES TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS THE
ONLY RESULT.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 50-55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MI ON THURSDAY.
925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 50S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40-50 KTS...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR
THUNDER THIS SPRING. THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SFC LOW IS MOVING AWAY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AREAS OF IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE...BECOMING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN
GOING NORTHEAST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK WESTERLY LATE IN THE
DAY. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW RIVERS HAD MINOR UPTICKS IN LEVELS FROM THE PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY. RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. NO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
TONIGHT... SO RIVERS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 311140
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 8 AM
THIS MORNING. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 50 TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY...BUT
SNOW OR A MIX COULD CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARM THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONGOING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 AM. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 2:15 AM. ASOS INDICATES LIGHT
SNOW IN BIG RAPIDS AND ALMA. WITH MODERATE FGEN FORCING...MAIN
CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 6 AM CENTERED ON A
BALDWIN TO MT. PLEASANT AXIS. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND SLICK AND SLUSHY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DOES TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS THE
ONLY RESULT.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 50-55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MI ON THURSDAY.
925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 50S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40-50 KTS...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR
THUNDER THIS SPRING. THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SFC LOW IS MOVING AWAY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AREAS OF IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE...BECOMING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN
GOING NORTHEAST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK WESTERLY LATE IN THE
DAY. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW RIVERS HAD MINOR UPTICKS IN LEVELS FROM THE PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY. RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. NO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
TONIGHT... SO RIVERS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 311140
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 8 AM
THIS MORNING. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 50 TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY...BUT
SNOW OR A MIX COULD CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARM THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONGOING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 AM. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS OF 2:15 AM. ASOS INDICATES LIGHT
SNOW IN BIG RAPIDS AND ALMA. WITH MODERATE FGEN FORCING...MAIN
CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 6 AM CENTERED ON A
BALDWIN TO MT. PLEASANT AXIS. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND SLICK AND SLUSHY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DOES TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS THE
ONLY RESULT.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 50-55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MI ON THURSDAY.
925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 50S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40-50 KTS...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR
THUNDER THIS SPRING. THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SFC LOW IS MOVING AWAY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLAINS LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AREAS OF IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE...BECOMING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN
GOING NORTHEAST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK WESTERLY LATE IN THE
DAY. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW RIVERS HAD MINOR UPTICKS IN LEVELS FROM THE PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY. RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. NO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
TONIGHT... SO RIVERS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KDTX 311110
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
710 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
BORDER INTO NORTHEAST OHIO BY LATE MORNING...AND WILL TAKE THE
REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW OUT OF THE AREA. IFR CEILING WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN HELP WITH AN IMPROVING CLOUD
TREND THROUGH MVFR AND INTO VFR DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH WET
GROUND...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MIDNIGHT. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT WITH A PASSING RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT MOSTLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.

FOR DTW... AS RAIN EXITS THE AREA...IFR CEILING WILL LINGER THROUGH
LATE MORNING. INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND WILL THEN BRING IN DRY AIR
AND HELP IMPROVE CLOUD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. RESIDUAL WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WIND WILL HELP WITH MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HIGH FOR RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SMALL BUT INTENSE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST BY
MID MORNING. THE GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
ALL RAIN IN THE DETROIT AREA...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...AND ALL SNOW TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE
I-69 TO M-59 CORRIDORS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TYPE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY RATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT. OBSERVATIONS
LOCALLY HAVE ALREADY RANGED FROM LIGHT RAIN TO HEAVY/WET SNOW AND
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SINCE 2 AM RESULTING IN NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT TREND
TOWARD MORE SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD WHILE THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION FOCUSES THE MOST INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. EXPECT AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION WITHIN THIS MAIN BAND BEFORE IT SLIDES EASTWARD.
THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE ALSO BROADENS ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH
OR LESS FARTHER NORTH TO CAPTURE SOME HIGHER ALTITUDE
FGEN/DEFORMATION ACTIVATION THAT WILL PRODUCE ALL SNOW IN THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING LEAVING
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEUTRAL ON LIGHT WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE THUMB.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SIMILAR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WHICH WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT AND
BRUSH THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S WAVE IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS BUT WILL HAVE
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO NEGATIVE
ALTERATION BY THE LARGER SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION DURING THE NIGHT.
THE NEW MODEL CYCLE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARED APART BY A
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
MORNING SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. THE TREND AMONG THE 00Z MODELS SHOWS
THE WAVE HANGING ON LONG ENOUGH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NW TO SE FROM THE TRI CITIES THROUGH THE
THUMB REGION FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE LONG WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOW A BAGGY MSLP
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO THE START THE DAY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL...PROGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO SHARPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. VERY STABLE
PROFILE FROM 2 TO 13 KFT AGL LIMITS ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE WARM ADVECTION. PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GOOD
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50
DEGREE MARK AWAY FROM AREA WATERS. WILL LIKELY WITNESS CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE PEOPLE NEAR THE LAKE.

AN INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE RIDER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN A
TRIPLE POINT REGION...AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10C WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MODELS FORECAST A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLIES. FIRST FORECAST QUESTION IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IS ON WHAT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL IS FOR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BRING IN
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION EARLY AND MUDDY THE SITUATION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SUPPORT A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS PRE EXISTING CONVECTION FROM MN/IA/SD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE. THE OTHER FORECAST QUESTION MARK IS ON OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A SLOWER PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 750 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DO
NOT AGREE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE VALUES...THERE IS CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY FORECASTED ON THE BACK OF STEEP 800-600 MB LAPSE RATES.
DID GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.

THE OTHER IMPORTANT MATTER TO HIGHLIGHT IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING STRIPING ACROSS THE
STATE IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETLET PUSHING
THROUGH IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION. STRONG LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS
ARE PROGGED FOR THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. DEFINITELY
INTERESTING. FOR NOW MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS REMAINS ADEQUATE.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL UNIFORMLY RESPOND NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY MUTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM PUSH OF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...WITH WIND SPEEDS
LIKELY REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311110
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
710 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
BORDER INTO NORTHEAST OHIO BY LATE MORNING...AND WILL TAKE THE
REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW OUT OF THE AREA. IFR CEILING WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN HELP WITH AN IMPROVING CLOUD
TREND THROUGH MVFR AND INTO VFR DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH WET
GROUND...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MIDNIGHT. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT WITH A PASSING RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT MOSTLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.

FOR DTW... AS RAIN EXITS THE AREA...IFR CEILING WILL LINGER THROUGH
LATE MORNING. INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND WILL THEN BRING IN DRY AIR
AND HELP IMPROVE CLOUD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. RESIDUAL WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WIND WILL HELP WITH MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HIGH FOR RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SMALL BUT INTENSE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST BY
MID MORNING. THE GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
ALL RAIN IN THE DETROIT AREA...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...AND ALL SNOW TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE
I-69 TO M-59 CORRIDORS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TYPE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY RATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT. OBSERVATIONS
LOCALLY HAVE ALREADY RANGED FROM LIGHT RAIN TO HEAVY/WET SNOW AND
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SINCE 2 AM RESULTING IN NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT TREND
TOWARD MORE SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD WHILE THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION FOCUSES THE MOST INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. EXPECT AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION WITHIN THIS MAIN BAND BEFORE IT SLIDES EASTWARD.
THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE ALSO BROADENS ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH
OR LESS FARTHER NORTH TO CAPTURE SOME HIGHER ALTITUDE
FGEN/DEFORMATION ACTIVATION THAT WILL PRODUCE ALL SNOW IN THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING LEAVING
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEUTRAL ON LIGHT WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE THUMB.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SIMILAR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WHICH WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT AND
BRUSH THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S WAVE IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS BUT WILL HAVE
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO NEGATIVE
ALTERATION BY THE LARGER SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION DURING THE NIGHT.
THE NEW MODEL CYCLE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARED APART BY A
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
MORNING SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. THE TREND AMONG THE 00Z MODELS SHOWS
THE WAVE HANGING ON LONG ENOUGH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NW TO SE FROM THE TRI CITIES THROUGH THE
THUMB REGION FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE LONG WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOW A BAGGY MSLP
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO THE START THE DAY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL...PROGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO SHARPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. VERY STABLE
PROFILE FROM 2 TO 13 KFT AGL LIMITS ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE WARM ADVECTION. PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GOOD
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50
DEGREE MARK AWAY FROM AREA WATERS. WILL LIKELY WITNESS CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE PEOPLE NEAR THE LAKE.

AN INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE RIDER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN A
TRIPLE POINT REGION...AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10C WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MODELS FORECAST A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLIES. FIRST FORECAST QUESTION IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IS ON WHAT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL IS FOR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BRING IN
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION EARLY AND MUDDY THE SITUATION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SUPPORT A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS PRE EXISTING CONVECTION FROM MN/IA/SD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE. THE OTHER FORECAST QUESTION MARK IS ON OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A SLOWER PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 750 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DO
NOT AGREE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE VALUES...THERE IS CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY FORECASTED ON THE BACK OF STEEP 800-600 MB LAPSE RATES.
DID GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.

THE OTHER IMPORTANT MATTER TO HIGHLIGHT IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING STRIPING ACROSS THE
STATE IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETLET PUSHING
THROUGH IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION. STRONG LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS
ARE PROGGED FOR THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. DEFINITELY
INTERESTING. FOR NOW MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS REMAINS ADEQUATE.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL UNIFORMLY RESPOND NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY MUTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM PUSH OF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...WITH WIND SPEEDS
LIKELY REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 311110
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
710 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
BORDER INTO NORTHEAST OHIO BY LATE MORNING...AND WILL TAKE THE
REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW OUT OF THE AREA. IFR CEILING WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN HELP WITH AN IMPROVING CLOUD
TREND THROUGH MVFR AND INTO VFR DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH WET
GROUND...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MIDNIGHT. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT WITH A PASSING RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT MOSTLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.

FOR DTW... AS RAIN EXITS THE AREA...IFR CEILING WILL LINGER THROUGH
LATE MORNING. INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND WILL THEN BRING IN DRY AIR
AND HELP IMPROVE CLOUD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. RESIDUAL WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WIND WILL HELP WITH MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HIGH FOR RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SMALL BUT INTENSE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST BY
MID MORNING. THE GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
ALL RAIN IN THE DETROIT AREA...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...AND ALL SNOW TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE
I-69 TO M-59 CORRIDORS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TYPE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY RATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT. OBSERVATIONS
LOCALLY HAVE ALREADY RANGED FROM LIGHT RAIN TO HEAVY/WET SNOW AND
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SINCE 2 AM RESULTING IN NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT TREND
TOWARD MORE SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD WHILE THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION FOCUSES THE MOST INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. EXPECT AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION WITHIN THIS MAIN BAND BEFORE IT SLIDES EASTWARD.
THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE ALSO BROADENS ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH
OR LESS FARTHER NORTH TO CAPTURE SOME HIGHER ALTITUDE
FGEN/DEFORMATION ACTIVATION THAT WILL PRODUCE ALL SNOW IN THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING LEAVING
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEUTRAL ON LIGHT WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE THUMB.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SIMILAR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WHICH WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT AND
BRUSH THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S WAVE IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS BUT WILL HAVE
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO NEGATIVE
ALTERATION BY THE LARGER SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION DURING THE NIGHT.
THE NEW MODEL CYCLE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARED APART BY A
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
MORNING SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. THE TREND AMONG THE 00Z MODELS SHOWS
THE WAVE HANGING ON LONG ENOUGH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NW TO SE FROM THE TRI CITIES THROUGH THE
THUMB REGION FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE LONG WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOW A BAGGY MSLP
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO THE START THE DAY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL...PROGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO SHARPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. VERY STABLE
PROFILE FROM 2 TO 13 KFT AGL LIMITS ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE WARM ADVECTION. PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GOOD
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50
DEGREE MARK AWAY FROM AREA WATERS. WILL LIKELY WITNESS CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE PEOPLE NEAR THE LAKE.

AN INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE RIDER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN A
TRIPLE POINT REGION...AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10C WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MODELS FORECAST A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLIES. FIRST FORECAST QUESTION IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IS ON WHAT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL IS FOR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BRING IN
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION EARLY AND MUDDY THE SITUATION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SUPPORT A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS PRE EXISTING CONVECTION FROM MN/IA/SD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE. THE OTHER FORECAST QUESTION MARK IS ON OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A SLOWER PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 750 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DO
NOT AGREE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE VALUES...THERE IS CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY FORECASTED ON THE BACK OF STEEP 800-600 MB LAPSE RATES.
DID GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.

THE OTHER IMPORTANT MATTER TO HIGHLIGHT IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING STRIPING ACROSS THE
STATE IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETLET PUSHING
THROUGH IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION. STRONG LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS
ARE PROGGED FOR THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. DEFINITELY
INTERESTING. FOR NOW MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS REMAINS ADEQUATE.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL UNIFORMLY RESPOND NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY MUTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM PUSH OF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...WITH WIND SPEEDS
LIKELY REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 311110
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
710 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
BORDER INTO NORTHEAST OHIO BY LATE MORNING...AND WILL TAKE THE
REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW OUT OF THE AREA. IFR CEILING WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN HELP WITH AN IMPROVING CLOUD
TREND THROUGH MVFR AND INTO VFR DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH WET
GROUND...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MIDNIGHT. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT WITH A PASSING RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT MOSTLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.

FOR DTW... AS RAIN EXITS THE AREA...IFR CEILING WILL LINGER THROUGH
LATE MORNING. INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND WILL THEN BRING IN DRY AIR
AND HELP IMPROVE CLOUD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. RESIDUAL WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WIND WILL HELP WITH MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE
  POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HIGH FOR RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SMALL BUT INTENSE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST BY
MID MORNING. THE GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
ALL RAIN IN THE DETROIT AREA...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...AND ALL SNOW TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE
I-69 TO M-59 CORRIDORS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TYPE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY RATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT. OBSERVATIONS
LOCALLY HAVE ALREADY RANGED FROM LIGHT RAIN TO HEAVY/WET SNOW AND
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SINCE 2 AM RESULTING IN NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT TREND
TOWARD MORE SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD WHILE THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION FOCUSES THE MOST INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. EXPECT AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION WITHIN THIS MAIN BAND BEFORE IT SLIDES EASTWARD.
THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE ALSO BROADENS ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH
OR LESS FARTHER NORTH TO CAPTURE SOME HIGHER ALTITUDE
FGEN/DEFORMATION ACTIVATION THAT WILL PRODUCE ALL SNOW IN THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING LEAVING
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEUTRAL ON LIGHT WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE THUMB.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SIMILAR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WHICH WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT AND
BRUSH THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S WAVE IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS BUT WILL HAVE
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO NEGATIVE
ALTERATION BY THE LARGER SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION DURING THE NIGHT.
THE NEW MODEL CYCLE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARED APART BY A
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
MORNING SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. THE TREND AMONG THE 00Z MODELS SHOWS
THE WAVE HANGING ON LONG ENOUGH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NW TO SE FROM THE TRI CITIES THROUGH THE
THUMB REGION FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE LONG WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOW A BAGGY MSLP
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO THE START THE DAY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL...PROGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO SHARPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. VERY STABLE
PROFILE FROM 2 TO 13 KFT AGL LIMITS ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE WARM ADVECTION. PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GOOD
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50
DEGREE MARK AWAY FROM AREA WATERS. WILL LIKELY WITNESS CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE PEOPLE NEAR THE LAKE.

AN INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE RIDER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN A
TRIPLE POINT REGION...AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10C WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MODELS FORECAST A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLIES. FIRST FORECAST QUESTION IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IS ON WHAT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL IS FOR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BRING IN
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION EARLY AND MUDDY THE SITUATION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SUPPORT A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS PRE EXISTING CONVECTION FROM MN/IA/SD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE. THE OTHER FORECAST QUESTION MARK IS ON OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A SLOWER PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 750 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DO
NOT AGREE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE VALUES...THERE IS CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY FORECASTED ON THE BACK OF STEEP 800-600 MB LAPSE RATES.
DID GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.

THE OTHER IMPORTANT MATTER TO HIGHLIGHT IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING STRIPING ACROSS THE
STATE IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETLET PUSHING
THROUGH IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION. STRONG LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS
ARE PROGGED FOR THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. DEFINITELY
INTERESTING. FOR NOW MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS REMAINS ADEQUATE.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL UNIFORMLY RESPOND NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY MUTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WARM PUSH OF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...WITH WIND SPEEDS
LIKELY REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 311109
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
709 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MBL/APN THIS MORNING...WITH MID CLOUDS
ROLLING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW/MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE AT PLN/APN LATE AFTERNOON TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 311109
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
709 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MBL/APN THIS MORNING...WITH MID CLOUDS
ROLLING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW/MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE AT PLN/APN LATE AFTERNOON TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 311109
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
709 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MBL/APN THIS MORNING...WITH MID CLOUDS
ROLLING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW/MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE AT PLN/APN LATE AFTERNOON TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 310917
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.

TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.

FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE STRATUS IFR CIGS AT CMX
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB ASSOCAITED WITH HI PRES NEAR ERN LK SUP...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREDOMINATE. A DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE NW TODAY WL MOVE OVER
UPR MI...BRINGING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME -SN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RA TO
MAINLY CMX AND SAW...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SITES. SINCE LESS PCPN IS LIKELY TO FALL AT
IWD...FCST ONLY A MARGINAL MVFR CONDITION AT THAT SITE. EVEN AFTER
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT CMX
AND ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE A LLVL UPSLOPE NNE WIND WL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF APRCHG HI PRES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 310917
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.

TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.

FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE STRATUS IFR CIGS AT CMX
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB ASSOCAITED WITH HI PRES NEAR ERN LK SUP...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREDOMINATE. A DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE NW TODAY WL MOVE OVER
UPR MI...BRINGING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME -SN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RA TO
MAINLY CMX AND SAW...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SITES. SINCE LESS PCPN IS LIKELY TO FALL AT
IWD...FCST ONLY A MARGINAL MVFR CONDITION AT THAT SITE. EVEN AFTER
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT CMX
AND ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE A LLVL UPSLOPE NNE WIND WL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF APRCHG HI PRES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 310907
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.

TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.

FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE STRATUS IFR CIGS AT CMX
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB ASSOCAITED WITH HI PRES NEAR ERN LK SUP...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREDOMINATE. A DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE NW TODAY WL MOVE OVER
UPR MI...BRINGING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME -SN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RA TO
MAINLY CMX AND SAW...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SITES. SINCE LESS PCPN IS LIKELY TO FALL AT
IWD...FCST ONLY A MARGINAL MVFR CONDITION AT THAT SITE. EVEN AFTER
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT CMX
AND ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE A LLVL UPSLOPE NNE WIND WL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF APRCHG HI PRES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 310907
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.

TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.

FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE STRATUS IFR CIGS AT CMX
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB ASSOCAITED WITH HI PRES NEAR ERN LK SUP...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREDOMINATE. A DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE NW TODAY WL MOVE OVER
UPR MI...BRINGING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME -SN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RA TO
MAINLY CMX AND SAW...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SITES. SINCE LESS PCPN IS LIKELY TO FALL AT
IWD...FCST ONLY A MARGINAL MVFR CONDITION AT THAT SITE. EVEN AFTER
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT CMX
AND ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE A LLVL UPSLOPE NNE WIND WL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF APRCHG HI PRES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KAPX 310832
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND MBL POSSIBLY TVC THROUGH 10Z...OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND
APN FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 310832
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND MBL POSSIBLY TVC THROUGH 10Z...OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND
APN FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 310832
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND MBL POSSIBLY TVC THROUGH 10Z...OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND
APN FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 310832
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND MBL POSSIBLY TVC THROUGH 10Z...OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND
APN FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 310832
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS WELL
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO SPIN UP ALONG OUR
DEPARTING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. MIXED SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DOES LITTLE TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
AND REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD AN ISSUE FOR OUR FELLOW
NWS OFFICES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (I.E. IT`S NOT OUR PROBLEM...
HA HA). STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO HOLD WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE FLOW. BEYOND
THAT...CONFIDENCE TANKS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS
AVAILABLE REGARDING HOW TO HANDLE VARIOUS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO
THE TRICK BUT GUT FEELING IS THESE ARE LIKELY TO GET BUMPED A LITTLE
LATER OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND MBL POSSIBLY TVC THROUGH 10Z...OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND
APN FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS...SOME LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. NO REAL
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 310832
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ONE SYSTEM OUT THIS MORNING/ANOTHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1006MB ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD A 4MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
ALSO HEADING SOUTHEAST.  BOTH FEATURES HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM...AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PRECIP AXIS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN-SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SECOND MORE COMPACT AREA OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY STRETCHED OUT FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
ANOMALY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CENTERS.  LOWER MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WHICH EXTEND UP INTO MANITOBA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES LAST EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA).
50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO
PRECIP BAND.  NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(THE LATTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).  JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

AS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT BAD WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HEADING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WHILE LEAD SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY ON...MID CLOUDS FROM NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER SATURATION ARRIVES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
FORCING (ISENTROPIC).  SO WILL ADD POPS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT DOWN TO AN FKS-PZQ LINE.  PRECIP TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...LOOKS PRETTY
THIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO MAY PLAY MORE SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND
RAIN FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A COOLER START TO THE
DAY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD ALL FROZEN PRECIP...AND POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW MAY
TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON
THAT IDEA TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.  CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE
PLENTY FOR NOW.  CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY OUTRIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND/OR THURSDAY.

FINALLY - I HAVE THE HONOR OF PRESENTING A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST TO
THE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE
TO DO THAT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER...AND SADLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A BRIEF VENTURE INTO THE WARMER WEATHER REALM. NEVERTHELESS...WE
WILL ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE! SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMUP IS A
FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO PLOW ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRANSITING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL WORK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF RETURN
FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BE QUITE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
THE GULF OPENS UP...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TOWARD AN INCH (NOT
TOO SHABBY FOR EARLY APRIL) AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY AND FRONTAL FORCING ON THURSDAY TO DELIVER A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
PESKY CLOUD COVER PERHAPS STUCK BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR A
TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS IDEA (NOT REALLY
SHOCKING GIVEN THEIR BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES OF LATE)...AND GUT
FEELING IS ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...PROBABLY
FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT GOES INTO PRODUCING SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT TEMPS REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 40S MOST AREAS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING
RAMPING UP OVERHEAD AND TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CORRIDOR OF BEST JET MASS CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650MB
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING 600 J/KG OF CAPE (SO NICE TO USE THAT WORD
AGAIN!). COUPLE THAT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
45 KNOTS IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND
7KFT...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SMALLER HAIL FALL FROM
ANY "HEAVIER" STORMS. MEANWHILE...DOWN INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER...DON`T FORESEE MUCH GOING ON THROUGH 06-09Z WITH ALL OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. JUST A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S SOUTHWEST AREAS.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE THEIR APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CONSENSUS
TIMING...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM BUILT IN HERE.
STRONG PUSH OF FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL QG-UPWARD FORCING COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOST
AREAS...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING. COULD VERY WELL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG (HIGHEST NORTHERN LOWER)...AND AGAIN WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRONGER SHEAR TO AID IN SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. NOT A
BIG DEAL BY ANY STRETCH...BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE HINTS OF THINGS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE ALL BUT
IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL BE BASED SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM START...50S ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN FOR A CHUNK OF NORTHERN
LOWER...BUT COULD PUSH 60 EASTERN AREAS IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH. DRYING OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A RETURN TO REALITY HEADING INTO EASTER WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER TROUGHING AGAIN WORKS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPTH OF THIS
FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL TAKE A
DIVE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY...
AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS W