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000
FXUS63 KDTX 301701
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1201 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015


.AVIATION...

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 KNOTS HAS
USHERED IN ENOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR-PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CLOUDS REMAIN
LURKING OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS
BACKING TOWARD THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST.
BANKING ON THE DAYTIME MIXING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO ERODE
THE CLOUDS AS THEY ATTEMPT TO PUSH EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS
WE HEAD TOWARD SUNSET. WITH WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH AND VERY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER CEILINGS (AROUND 3000
FEET) TO WORK THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BEHIND US...BUT FEW MORE
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS QUICKLY
DROPPING OFF AROUND SUNSET. EXACT TIMING AND DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING IS LOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THIS EVENING...MEDIUM TONIGHT...LOW AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A CONTRACTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDENT SHORTWAVE IS
DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AT 8Z. INCREASED MIXING DEPTHS
AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
LED TO BLUSTERLY CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE.

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADDITION TO A REASONABLY DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER HANGING AROUND -15C RESULTED IN A WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
GAUGING FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REFLECTIVITY...SUSPECT THAT
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT AND LIKELY EVEN INDISCERNIBLE
GIVEN THE BLOWING COMPONENT. THE DEPENDENCE OF THE SETUP ON
THERMODYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SUGGESTS THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY WIND
DOWN THIS MORNING AS DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA DRIES OUT THE
800-900MB LAYER. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS TO OCCUR BY 8AM. LAST FEW
REFLECTIVITY IMAGES...SHOW SOME BANDING OF THE SNOW. THIS APPEARS TO
BE A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO MASS CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF YET
ANOTHER THETA E DISCONTINUITY. OVERALL STRUCTURE AND APPEARANCE
SUGGESTS A SQUALL LIKE BEHAVIOR. THE PROBLEM IS...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SFC OBSERVATIONS...AND IF THIS IS IN FACT
THE FORCING...LONGEVITY OF THE SETUP IS VERY SHORT TERM...OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR LESS. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL END
BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL MONITOR FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS WITH SPS IF NEED BE.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO A NEGATIVE TILT PUSHING WELL
EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
AGGRESSIVELY BUILD EASTWARD. EXPECT BREEZY NORTHERLIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLD...RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES
FOR HIGHS.

A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO ZIP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT NUDGING THE THETA E GRADIENT UP AGAINST SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL ARRIVE...BUT UNDER A HEAVY DOSE OF
SHEARING/CONFLUENCE ALOFT. QUALITATIVELY...THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
CORRECT SPOT FOR ASCENT DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT. FOR THIS
REASON WILL INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE BELOW 10
KFT AGL WILL BE LACKING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MASSAGED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD GIVEN THE PROJECTED
DEWPOINTS...CURRENT FORECAST WILL HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRIMARY FOCUS DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD CENTERS ON THE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT PERIODS...WITH A SIZABLE SHIFT IN EXPECTATIONS TOWARD A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IMPACTING
A PORTION OF SE MICHIGAN.

COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...FEATURING A
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED OVER BAJA TUCKED BENEATH
AN ENERGETIC WEST-NORTHWEST NORTHERN STREAM.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
ATTENDANT TO A LEAD CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA WILL SHIFT AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODEST THERMAL RESPONSE ON SATURDAY AS THE
THE PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TEMPORARILY TAKES HOLD.  THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 30 DEGREE RANGE.  A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE QUALITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
SLOPE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE
LIMITED DURATION AND INTENSITY.

A PIECE OF THE SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW WILL SHEAR EAST-NORTHEAST
COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER WAVE EMANATING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA.  THE INTERACTION OF THIS ENERGY YIELDING
CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE IN RECENT DAYS...BUT
HAVE LARGELY CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SPACE WHICH NOW PROVIDES A
NOTEWORTHY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE POSITIONING OF THE GOVERNING
DYNAMICS AND A CORRESPONDING SHIFT TOWARD GREATER SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.  THIS PROCESS WILL INITIATE AN AGGRESSIVE NORTHEASTWARD
ADVECTION OF THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY TIED TO
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LOW.   THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY WORK ACROSS
THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE EXITING ARCTIC FRONT...RESULTING IN AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SNOWFALL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SETUP
POINTS TOWARD A LONG DURATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL SUNDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCED THROUGH A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS AND INCREMENTAL SPIKES IN CVA.  A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AND
DIMINISHING ASCENT WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL MAINTAIN A FIRM
NORTHERN GRADIENT TO THIS SNOWFALL...PROVIDING A HIGHER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB
CORRIDOR.

MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ALLOW SPECIFIC HUMIDITY WITHIN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER TO REACH 3 G/KG DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT.  THE LONG
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS ENVIRONMENT TRANSLATES INTO A SIGNIFICANT
UPTICK IN QPF WITHIN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF.  AT THIS STAGE AND GIVEN THE
SIZABLE MODEL ADJUSTMENT...GOING FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE NAM...WITH A LEERY EYE ON THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS NOW SHOWN ON
THE ECMWF /.4" M-59 CORRIDOR TO .7" OHIO BORDER/.  THE ENSUING POST-
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE A COLDER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN PLACE...SUGGESTING SNOW RATIOS WILL ARRIVE
ABOVE CLIMO /BALLPARK 16-17:1 AT THIS STAGE/.  A BROADER 3 TO 6 INCH
TYPE SWATH LOOKS ATTAINABLE...WITH A 6+ INCH BAND NOW WITHIN THE
ENVELOP OF POSSIBILITIES.

MARINE...

ONGOING NORTHWEST GALES ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WILL EASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THIS HIGH.  ARCTIC FRONT SHIFT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-441-462>464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


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000
FXUS63 KAPX 301638
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1138 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD 1035+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST...COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT
NOW ACROSS NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA.  PLENTY OF SUB-ZERO COLD
HORSESHOEING AROUND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH TEENS AND 20S BELOW
ZERO AROUND THE NORTH/EAST SIDES OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  MICHIGAN LIES IN
THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEADING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HINT OF SOME
ENERGY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA...DEFINITELY SOME WARM ADVECTION
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ACROSS MANITOBA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA/
WESTERN WISCONSIN...THOUGH DRY LOWER LAYERS PER 12Z MPX/INL RAOBS.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
MULTI-BAND LAKE CONVECTION OVER THE SURROUNDING LAKES...WITH NORTH-
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.  14Z LOCAL MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED CONVERGENCE AXIS FEEDING INTO A SINGLE BAND COMING INTO THE
LEELANAU PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES.
12Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHT JUST A SHADE BELOW 850MB...AT A
TEMPERATURE OF -22C.

PRESSURES RISING ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH
PUSHES EAST.  BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT ONGOING LAKE BANDS
INLAND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  LINGERING SINGLE BAND
INTO LEELANAU COUNTY WILL SHIFT EAST AND FALL APART DURING EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
EFFECTIVE FETCH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.  PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE CLOUDS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXED SKIES OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER
EXPECTED TO SEE MORE CLOUDS LATER WITH BACKING WINDS. WINTER WX
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 614 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WAS THINKING EARLIER ABOUT DROPPING THE ADVISORY AT 7AM...BUT
THERE ARE STILL LAKE BANDS WITH A CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THERE IS STILL SOME MORE TIME FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BLOW AROUND SNOW.
WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE A BIT FURTHER INTO THE MORNING...AS WE
SHOULD BEGIN LOSING THE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MAJOR FORESEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW END RISK FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
OVERALL IMPACT LOOKS MINOR GIVEN ALREADY SNOW COVERED/SLUSHY ROADS
THAT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FAMILIAR-LOOKING PATTERN WITH THE PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING...SOME DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA AND SOME
SKIRTING JUST NORTH. SATURDAY`S ITERATION WILL FEATURE A MODEST WAVE
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF THE UPPER FORCING WITH
SAID WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING US HINGING OUR BETS ON
WHATEVER SORT OF LOW LEVEL/FRONTAL FORCING WE CAN MUSTER FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. BRIEF BUT NOTABLE INTRUSION OF "WARMER" AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE
800MB AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING ABOVE -10C AT LEAST RAISING AN
EYEBROW TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS TO ME JUST LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO COOL TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EVEN IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR (MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF M-32)...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINOR GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY IT WOULD OCCUR (DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). FARTHER NORTH...WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE UP TO 800MB WITH CLOUD TEMPS DOWN AS LOW AS -15C SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MINOR BUT IT WILL LIKELY SNOW...THUS HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN.

WE SORT OF SIT IN NO MAN`S LAND SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR JUST
STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...ALL WHILE WE AWAIT UPSTREAM
TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH PHASING CAN GET TAKE PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SATURATION SHRINKING BELOW 850MB BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONLY SLOWLY KICKING INTO GEAR. THAT THREAT SHOULD BE GONE
NO LATER THAN 03-06Z AS SOME VERY CHILLY AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO KICKS OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY.

NOW...SPEAKING OF POTENTIAL PHASING TO OUR SOUTH...GUIDANCE TRENDS
AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION CONTINUE TO FAVOR LITTLE IMPACT THIS
FAR NORTH HEADING INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL ACT TO
BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE STRONGER WAVE OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY. NOT HELPING MATTERS WILL ALSO BE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING (SURFACE PRESSURES NEARING 1044MB TO OUR
WEST)...ALSO ACTING AS A FORMIDABLE BLOCK TO ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO SKIRT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. GIVEN THAT SCENARIO...COULD WELL END UP SEEING A
GOOD DEAL OF INLAND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS NORTH FLOW FAVORS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES BUT POTENTIALLY SOME QUITE COLD CONDITIONS INLAND. SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR (H8 TEMPS IN THE -19C TO -23C RANGE) AND
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ARGUES FOR ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHERE LAKE EFFECT DOES EXIST...AS FLAKE SIZE WILL BE QUITE SMALL
WITH THE DGZ BASICALLY AT GROUND LEVEL. SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SPOTS TO DIP BELOW -10F SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDED WINDS AND CLOUDS
COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WE NOW RETURN YOU TO NORMAL WINTER WEATHER (THOUGH ARGUABLY THERE IS
NO SUCH THING AS "NORMAL WEATHER" IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN). BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK...REINFORCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
EMANATING SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRAG SEVERAL COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OF COURSE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE... AS IT OFTEN IS IN SUCH SETUPS...BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD PLACE ONE WAVE ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL WAVE DOES AT LEAST PEAK
SOME INTEREST GIVEN A PERSISTENT AND DECENT FGEN SIGNAL NOTED FOR A
FEW DAYS NOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. OUTSIDE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...
SIMPLE STEP-DOWN TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MANDATES
DAILY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW WANING...

STILL GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (MBL/TVC) WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS HIGHER PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED...WHICH SHOULD WORK
THEIR WAY BACK INTO PLN AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTIER WINDS FOR AWHILE LONGER
AT APN WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND SNOW AND KEEP VSBYS REDUCED.

SKIES WILL REMAIN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR ACROSS NW LOWER...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE APN...POSSIBLY SCATTERING
THEM OUT...POSSIBLY PLN FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN
WITH ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 301638
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1138 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD 1035+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST...COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT
NOW ACROSS NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA.  PLENTY OF SUB-ZERO COLD
HORSESHOEING AROUND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH TEENS AND 20S BELOW
ZERO AROUND THE NORTH/EAST SIDES OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  MICHIGAN LIES IN
THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEADING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HINT OF SOME
ENERGY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA...DEFINITELY SOME WARM ADVECTION
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ACROSS MANITOBA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA/
WESTERN WISCONSIN...THOUGH DRY LOWER LAYERS PER 12Z MPX/INL RAOBS.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
MULTI-BAND LAKE CONVECTION OVER THE SURROUNDING LAKES...WITH NORTH-
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.  14Z LOCAL MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED CONVERGENCE AXIS FEEDING INTO A SINGLE BAND COMING INTO THE
LEELANAU PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES.
12Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHT JUST A SHADE BELOW 850MB...AT A
TEMPERATURE OF -22C.

PRESSURES RISING ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH
PUSHES EAST.  BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT ONGOING LAKE BANDS
INLAND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  LINGERING SINGLE BAND
INTO LEELANAU COUNTY WILL SHIFT EAST AND FALL APART DURING EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
EFFECTIVE FETCH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.  PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE CLOUDS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXED SKIES OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER
EXPECTED TO SEE MORE CLOUDS LATER WITH BACKING WINDS. WINTER WX
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 614 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WAS THINKING EARLIER ABOUT DROPPING THE ADVISORY AT 7AM...BUT
THERE ARE STILL LAKE BANDS WITH A CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THERE IS STILL SOME MORE TIME FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BLOW AROUND SNOW.
WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE A BIT FURTHER INTO THE MORNING...AS WE
SHOULD BEGIN LOSING THE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MAJOR FORESEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW END RISK FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
OVERALL IMPACT LOOKS MINOR GIVEN ALREADY SNOW COVERED/SLUSHY ROADS
THAT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FAMILIAR-LOOKING PATTERN WITH THE PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING...SOME DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA AND SOME
SKIRTING JUST NORTH. SATURDAY`S ITERATION WILL FEATURE A MODEST WAVE
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF THE UPPER FORCING WITH
SAID WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING US HINGING OUR BETS ON
WHATEVER SORT OF LOW LEVEL/FRONTAL FORCING WE CAN MUSTER FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. BRIEF BUT NOTABLE INTRUSION OF "WARMER" AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE
800MB AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING ABOVE -10C AT LEAST RAISING AN
EYEBROW TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS TO ME JUST LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO COOL TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EVEN IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR (MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF M-32)...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINOR GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY IT WOULD OCCUR (DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). FARTHER NORTH...WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE UP TO 800MB WITH CLOUD TEMPS DOWN AS LOW AS -15C SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MINOR BUT IT WILL LIKELY SNOW...THUS HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN.

WE SORT OF SIT IN NO MAN`S LAND SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR JUST
STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...ALL WHILE WE AWAIT UPSTREAM
TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH PHASING CAN GET TAKE PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SATURATION SHRINKING BELOW 850MB BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONLY SLOWLY KICKING INTO GEAR. THAT THREAT SHOULD BE GONE
NO LATER THAN 03-06Z AS SOME VERY CHILLY AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO KICKS OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY.

NOW...SPEAKING OF POTENTIAL PHASING TO OUR SOUTH...GUIDANCE TRENDS
AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION CONTINUE TO FAVOR LITTLE IMPACT THIS
FAR NORTH HEADING INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL ACT TO
BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE STRONGER WAVE OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY. NOT HELPING MATTERS WILL ALSO BE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING (SURFACE PRESSURES NEARING 1044MB TO OUR
WEST)...ALSO ACTING AS A FORMIDABLE BLOCK TO ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO SKIRT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. GIVEN THAT SCENARIO...COULD WELL END UP SEEING A
GOOD DEAL OF INLAND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS NORTH FLOW FAVORS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES BUT POTENTIALLY SOME QUITE COLD CONDITIONS INLAND. SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR (H8 TEMPS IN THE -19C TO -23C RANGE) AND
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ARGUES FOR ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHERE LAKE EFFECT DOES EXIST...AS FLAKE SIZE WILL BE QUITE SMALL
WITH THE DGZ BASICALLY AT GROUND LEVEL. SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SPOTS TO DIP BELOW -10F SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDED WINDS AND CLOUDS
COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WE NOW RETURN YOU TO NORMAL WINTER WEATHER (THOUGH ARGUABLY THERE IS
NO SUCH THING AS "NORMAL WEATHER" IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN). BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK...REINFORCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
EMANATING SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRAG SEVERAL COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OF COURSE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE... AS IT OFTEN IS IN SUCH SETUPS...BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD PLACE ONE WAVE ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL WAVE DOES AT LEAST PEAK
SOME INTEREST GIVEN A PERSISTENT AND DECENT FGEN SIGNAL NOTED FOR A
FEW DAYS NOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. OUTSIDE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...
SIMPLE STEP-DOWN TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MANDATES
DAILY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW WANING...

STILL GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (MBL/TVC) WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS HIGHER PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED...WHICH SHOULD WORK
THEIR WAY BACK INTO PLN AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTIER WINDS FOR AWHILE LONGER
AT APN WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND SNOW AND KEEP VSBYS REDUCED.

SKIES WILL REMAIN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR ACROSS NW LOWER...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE APN...POSSIBLY SCATTERING
THEM OUT...POSSIBLY PLN FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN
WITH ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRR 301631
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1130 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. TODAY WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF US-131.

A DEVELOPING STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY BUT MAY
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. COLD AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A POTENTIAL STORM SUNDAY AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE LIGHT SNOW TODAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA A FEW HOURS
AGO. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 20S AND WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE MORNING. EXPECT COLDER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 20. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SSE
ACROSS THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY GOOD WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR -17C
FLOWING OVER THE LAKE. THIS COLD AIR IS VERY TRANSITORY AND WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY PUTTING AN END TO THE SHSN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
BUFKIT RH PROFILES SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH NOT MUCH LIFT SO
ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SKIES MAY
BRIEFLY SCATTER BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD
BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND 10 TONIGHT BEFORE RISING AS CLOUDS MOVE IN BUT
THAT ISN`T CERTAIN AND I DIDN`T GO THAT LOW IN THE GRIDS EXCEPT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LAST TO MOVE
OVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW FROM IT. BUT MOISTURE ISN/T IMPRESSIVE AND SO LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED.

THE GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE NORTH. WE/VE INCREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. NAM BRINGS IN
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES FOR THIS SYSTEM IF THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS UP. SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-94.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEARING FOLLOWED BY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
OVER INTERIOR OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH LOWS OF 10 BELOW OR
COLDER POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-94...SNOW WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ANEMIC PROSPECTS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW STEADILY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COMPACT UPPER POT VORT ANOMALY. TUESDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY COULD SEE A QUICK AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ENSUING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING ALSO LOOKS INTERESTING WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT DEEP MOISTURE ARE
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. WE HAVE
SEEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF AND NOW AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS REGARDING THIS. CERTAINTY IS THEREFORE BUMPED UP A NOTCH BUT
STILL LOW OVERALL SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH A DAY 5/6 FORECAST.
WE CAN SAY WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL LINGER AT KMKG INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL BACK TO THE SW AND SUBSIDE TO AOB 10
KTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

ICE FORMATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN
AROUND 20 TODAY AND AROUND 15 SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 301631
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1130 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. TODAY WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF US-131.

A DEVELOPING STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY BUT MAY
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. COLD AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A POTENTIAL STORM SUNDAY AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE LIGHT SNOW TODAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA A FEW HOURS
AGO. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 20S AND WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE MORNING. EXPECT COLDER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 20. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SSE
ACROSS THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY GOOD WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR -17C
FLOWING OVER THE LAKE. THIS COLD AIR IS VERY TRANSITORY AND WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY PUTTING AN END TO THE SHSN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
BUFKIT RH PROFILES SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH NOT MUCH LIFT SO
ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SKIES MAY
BRIEFLY SCATTER BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD
BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND 10 TONIGHT BEFORE RISING AS CLOUDS MOVE IN BUT
THAT ISN`T CERTAIN AND I DIDN`T GO THAT LOW IN THE GRIDS EXCEPT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LAST TO MOVE
OVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW FROM IT. BUT MOISTURE ISN/T IMPRESSIVE AND SO LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED.

THE GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE NORTH. WE/VE INCREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. NAM BRINGS IN
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES FOR THIS SYSTEM IF THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS UP. SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-94.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEARING FOLLOWED BY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
OVER INTERIOR OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH LOWS OF 10 BELOW OR
COLDER POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-94...SNOW WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ANEMIC PROSPECTS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW STEADILY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COMPACT UPPER POT VORT ANOMALY. TUESDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY COULD SEE A QUICK AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ENSUING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING ALSO LOOKS INTERESTING WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT DEEP MOISTURE ARE
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. WE HAVE
SEEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF AND NOW AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS REGARDING THIS. CERTAINTY IS THEREFORE BUMPED UP A NOTCH BUT
STILL LOW OVERALL SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH A DAY 5/6 FORECAST.
WE CAN SAY WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL LINGER AT KMKG INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL BACK TO THE SW AND SUBSIDE TO AOB 10
KTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

ICE FORMATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN
AROUND 20 TODAY AND AROUND 15 SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93







  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMQT 301227
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WHILE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE E OF
MARQUETTE...THE WINDS ARE NO WHERE NEAR THE 35-45 MPH WINDS THAT WE
HAD YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
TO AROUND 3KFT OR LESS THIS MORNING...SO DESPITE -16 TO -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...LIMITED MOISTURE IS
RESULTING IN MORE ANEMIC BROKEN LINES OF LES. THE FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY WILL SHIFT E LATE THIS
MORNING AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE W /AND EVEN OUT OF THE SW OVER
THE E TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA/. LES ADVISORY FOR ALGER AND N
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WAS ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 5AM...WHICH TIMED OUT
WITH THE RE-OPENING OF M-28 FROM E OF HARVEY TO MUNISING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY RISE INTO THE TEENS TODAY DESPITE WAA
AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AN AVERAGE -13C BY 00Z SATURDAY.
STILL...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. KEPT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OUT E...WHERE THEY WILL NEED TO RECOVER FROM 0F VALUES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT...ANY BREAK IN THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED. ALREADY SEEING SNOW FALLING ACROSS S MANITOBA WITH THE
NEXT WAVE NEARING UPPER MI. LOOK FOR THE SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM
JUST NW OF LAKE MI THROUGH MO TO SINK TO THE OH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. LOOK TO TAKE IT/S PLACE...SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW INCREASING W TO E
LATE TONIGHT...AND BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AFTER 06Z AS WINS TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW/UPSLOPE FOR THE W HALF OF
THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT 0.5 TO
NEAR 2 IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.

MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT ALL 3 SITES THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT SAW AND IWD BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN
MORE OUT OF THE W OR SW PUSHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE
VICINITY. HOWEVER AT CMX THERE IS A MUCH SMALLER WINDOW OF POTENTIAL
VFR CEILINGS LAT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE OUR
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE SE IN ADVANCE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEARING FROM THE W THAT WILL BE PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE TROUGH OVER NW MN AT 00Z WILL
AND CROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. LOOK FOR -SN
TO SLOWLY INVADE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

GALES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO
AN END OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 15Z TODAY AS LIGHTER
WINDS TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH E
MN AND W WI WILL SINK TO THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WHILE EXTENDING A
RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR A TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...AND EXIT INTO
SE ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS W AND
CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NW GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. LOOK FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE HOISTED LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AND THEN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
LIKELY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     LSZ264-266-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 301227
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WHILE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE E OF
MARQUETTE...THE WINDS ARE NO WHERE NEAR THE 35-45 MPH WINDS THAT WE
HAD YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
TO AROUND 3KFT OR LESS THIS MORNING...SO DESPITE -16 TO -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...LIMITED MOISTURE IS
RESULTING IN MORE ANEMIC BROKEN LINES OF LES. THE FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY WILL SHIFT E LATE THIS
MORNING AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE W /AND EVEN OUT OF THE SW OVER
THE E TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA/. LES ADVISORY FOR ALGER AND N
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WAS ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 5AM...WHICH TIMED OUT
WITH THE RE-OPENING OF M-28 FROM E OF HARVEY TO MUNISING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY RISE INTO THE TEENS TODAY DESPITE WAA
AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AN AVERAGE -13C BY 00Z SATURDAY.
STILL...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. KEPT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OUT E...WHERE THEY WILL NEED TO RECOVER FROM 0F VALUES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT...ANY BREAK IN THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED. ALREADY SEEING SNOW FALLING ACROSS S MANITOBA WITH THE
NEXT WAVE NEARING UPPER MI. LOOK FOR THE SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM
JUST NW OF LAKE MI THROUGH MO TO SINK TO THE OH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. LOOK TO TAKE IT/S PLACE...SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW INCREASING W TO E
LATE TONIGHT...AND BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AFTER 06Z AS WINS TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW/UPSLOPE FOR THE W HALF OF
THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT 0.5 TO
NEAR 2 IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.

MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT ALL 3 SITES THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT SAW AND IWD BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN
MORE OUT OF THE W OR SW PUSHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE
VICINITY. HOWEVER AT CMX THERE IS A MUCH SMALLER WINDOW OF POTENTIAL
VFR CEILINGS LAT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE OUR
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE SE IN ADVANCE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEARING FROM THE W THAT WILL BE PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE TROUGH OVER NW MN AT 00Z WILL
AND CROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. LOOK FOR -SN
TO SLOWLY INVADE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

GALES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO
AN END OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 15Z TODAY AS LIGHTER
WINDS TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH E
MN AND W WI WILL SINK TO THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WHILE EXTENDING A
RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR A TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...AND EXIT INTO
SE ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS W AND
CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NW GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. LOOK FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE HOISTED LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AND THEN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
LIKELY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     LSZ264-266-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301136
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
636 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. TODAY WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF US-131.

A DEVELOPING STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY BUT MAY
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. COLD AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A POTENTIAL STORM SUNDAY AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE LIGHT SNOW TODAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA A FEW HOURS
AGO. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 20S AND WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE MORNING. EXPECT COLDER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 20. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SSE
ACROSS THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY GOOD WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR -17C
FLOWING OVER THE LAKE. THIS COLD AIR IS VERY TRANSITORY AND WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY PUTTING AN END TO THE SHSN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
BUFKIT RH PROFILES SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH NOT MUCH LIFT SO
ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SKIES MAY
BRIEFLY SCATTER BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD
BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND 10 TONIGHT BEFORE RISING AS CLOUDS MOVE IN BUT
THAT ISN`T CERTAIN AND I DIDN`T GO THAT LOW IN THE GRIDS EXCEPT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LAST TO MOVE
OVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW FROM IT. BUT MOISTURE ISN/T IMPRESSIVE AND SO LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED.

THE GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE NORTH. WE/VE INCREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. NAM BRINGS IN
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES FOR THIS SYSTEM IF THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS UP. SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-94.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEARING FOLLOWED BY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
OVER INTERIOR OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH LOWS OF 10 BELOW OR
COLDER POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-94...SNOW WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ANEMIC PROSPECTS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW STEADILY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COMPACT UPPER POT VORT ANOMALY. TUESDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY COULD SEE A QUICK AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ENSUING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING ALSO LOOKS INTERESTING WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT DEEP MOISTURE ARE
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. WE HAVE
SEEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF AND NOW AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS REGARDING THIS. CERTAINTY IS THEREFORE BUMPED UP A NOTCH BUT
STILL LOW OVERALL SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH A DAY 5/6 FORECAST.
WE CAN SAY WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

NO CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE. OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR WITH SOME MVR CIGS ABOVE
2000 FT POSSIBLE EARLY ON AT THE LAN AND JXN TERMINALS. AS NOTED
PREVIOUSLY...MAY SEE BRIEF CLEARING EARLY AT SOME TERMINALS BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

ICE FORMATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN
AROUND 20 TODAY AND AROUND 15 SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...93






000
FXUS63 KGRR 301136
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
636 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. TODAY WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF US-131.

A DEVELOPING STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY BUT MAY
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. COLD AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A POTENTIAL STORM SUNDAY AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE LIGHT SNOW TODAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA A FEW HOURS
AGO. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 20S AND WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE MORNING. EXPECT COLDER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 20. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SSE
ACROSS THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY GOOD WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR -17C
FLOWING OVER THE LAKE. THIS COLD AIR IS VERY TRANSITORY AND WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY PUTTING AN END TO THE SHSN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
BUFKIT RH PROFILES SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH NOT MUCH LIFT SO
ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SKIES MAY
BRIEFLY SCATTER BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD
BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND 10 TONIGHT BEFORE RISING AS CLOUDS MOVE IN BUT
THAT ISN`T CERTAIN AND I DIDN`T GO THAT LOW IN THE GRIDS EXCEPT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LAST TO MOVE
OVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW FROM IT. BUT MOISTURE ISN/T IMPRESSIVE AND SO LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED.

THE GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE NORTH. WE/VE INCREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. NAM BRINGS IN
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES FOR THIS SYSTEM IF THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS UP. SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-94.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEARING FOLLOWED BY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
OVER INTERIOR OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH LOWS OF 10 BELOW OR
COLDER POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-94...SNOW WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ANEMIC PROSPECTS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW STEADILY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COMPACT UPPER POT VORT ANOMALY. TUESDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY COULD SEE A QUICK AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ENSUING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING ALSO LOOKS INTERESTING WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT DEEP MOISTURE ARE
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. WE HAVE
SEEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF AND NOW AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS REGARDING THIS. CERTAINTY IS THEREFORE BUMPED UP A NOTCH BUT
STILL LOW OVERALL SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH A DAY 5/6 FORECAST.
WE CAN SAY WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

NO CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE. OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR WITH SOME MVR CIGS ABOVE
2000 FT POSSIBLE EARLY ON AT THE LAN AND JXN TERMINALS. AS NOTED
PREVIOUSLY...MAY SEE BRIEF CLEARING EARLY AT SOME TERMINALS BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

ICE FORMATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN
AROUND 20 TODAY AND AROUND 15 SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...93







000
FXUS63 KAPX 301125
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WAS THINKING EARLIER ABOUT DROPPING THE ADVISORY AT 7AM...BUT
THERE ARE STILL LAKE BANDS WITH A CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THERE IS STILL SOME MORE TIME FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BLOW AROUND SNOW.
WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE A BIT FURTHER INTO THE MORNING...AS WE
SHOULD BEGIN LOSING THE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MAJOR FORESEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW END RISK FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
OVERALL IMPACT LOOKS MINOR GIVEN ALREADY SNOW COVERED/SLUSHY ROADS
THAT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FAMILIAR-LOOKING PATTERN WITH THE PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING...SOME DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA AND SOME
SKIRTING JUST NORTH. SATURDAY`S ITERATION WILL FEATURE A MODEST WAVE
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF THE UPPER FORCING WITH
SAID WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING US HINGING OUR BETS ON
WHATEVER SORT OF LOW LEVEL/FRONTAL FORCING WE CAN MUSTER FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. BRIEF BUT NOTABLE INTRUSION OF "WARMER" AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE
800MB AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING ABOVE -10C AT LEAST RAISING AN
EYEBROW TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS TO ME JUST LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO COOL TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EVEN IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR (MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF M-32)...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINOR GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY IT WOULD OCCUR (DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). FARTHER NORTH...WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE UP TO 800MB WITH CLOUD TEMPS DOWN AS LOW AS -15C SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MINOR BUT IT WILL LIKELY SNOW...THUS HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN.

WE SORT OF SIT IN NO MAN`S LAND SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR JUST
STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...ALL WHILE WE AWAIT UPSTREAM
TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH PHASING CAN GET TAKE PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SATURATION SHRINKING BELOW 850MB BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONLY SLOWLY KICKING INTO GEAR. THAT THREAT SHOULD BE GONE
NO LATER THAN 03-06Z AS SOME VERY CHILLY AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO KICKS OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY.

NOW...SPEAKING OF POTENTIAL PHASING TO OUR SOUTH...GUIDANCE TRENDS
AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION CONTINUE TO FAVOR LITTLE IMPACT THIS
FAR NORTH HEADING INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL ACT TO
BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE STRONGER WAVE OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY. NOT HELPING MATTERS WILL ALSO BE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING (SURFACE PRESSURES NEARING 1044MB TO OUR
WEST)...ALSO ACTING AS A FORMIDABLE BLOCK TO ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO SKIRT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. GIVEN THAT SCENARIO...COULD WELL END UP SEEING A
GOOD DEAL OF INLAND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS NORTH FLOW FAVORS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES BUT POTENTIALLY SOME QUITE COLD CONDITIONS INLAND. SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR (H8 TEMPS IN THE -19C TO -23C RANGE) AND
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ARGUES FOR ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHERE LAKE EFFECT DOES EXIST...AS FLAKE SIZE WILL BE QUITE SMALL
WITH THE DGZ BASICALLY AT GROUND LEVEL. SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SPOTS TO DIP BELOW -10F SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDED WINDS AND CLOUDS
COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WE NOW RETURN YOU TO NORMAL WINTER WEATHER (THOUGH ARGUABLY THERE IS
NO SUCH THING AS "NORMAL WEATHER" IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN). BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK...REINFORCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
EMANATING SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRAG SEVERAL COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OF COURSE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE... AS IT OFTEN IS IN SUCH SETUPS...BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD PLACE ONE WAVE ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL WAVE DOES AT LEAST PEAK
SOME INTEREST GIVEN A PERSISTENT AND DECENT FGEN SIGNAL NOTED FOR A
FEW DAYS NOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. OUTSIDE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...
SIMPLE STEP-DOWN TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MANDATES
DAILY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW WANING...

STILL GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (MBL/TVC) WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS HIGHER PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED...WHICH SHOULD WORK
THEIR WAY BACK INTO PLN AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTIER WINDS FOR AWHILE LONGER
AT APN WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND SNOW AND KEEP VSBYS REDUCED.

SKIES WILL REMAIN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR ACROSS NW LOWER...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE APN...POSSIBLY SCATTERING
THEM OUT...POSSIBLY PLN FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN
WITH ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 301125
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WAS THINKING EARLIER ABOUT DROPPING THE ADVISORY AT 7AM...BUT
THERE ARE STILL LAKE BANDS WITH A CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THERE IS STILL SOME MORE TIME FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BLOW AROUND SNOW.
WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE A BIT FURTHER INTO THE MORNING...AS WE
SHOULD BEGIN LOSING THE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MAJOR FORESEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW END RISK FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
OVERALL IMPACT LOOKS MINOR GIVEN ALREADY SNOW COVERED/SLUSHY ROADS
THAT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FAMILIAR-LOOKING PATTERN WITH THE PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING...SOME DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA AND SOME
SKIRTING JUST NORTH. SATURDAY`S ITERATION WILL FEATURE A MODEST WAVE
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF THE UPPER FORCING WITH
SAID WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING US HINGING OUR BETS ON
WHATEVER SORT OF LOW LEVEL/FRONTAL FORCING WE CAN MUSTER FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. BRIEF BUT NOTABLE INTRUSION OF "WARMER" AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE
800MB AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING ABOVE -10C AT LEAST RAISING AN
EYEBROW TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS TO ME JUST LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO COOL TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EVEN IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR (MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF M-32)...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINOR GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY IT WOULD OCCUR (DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). FARTHER NORTH...WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE UP TO 800MB WITH CLOUD TEMPS DOWN AS LOW AS -15C SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MINOR BUT IT WILL LIKELY SNOW...THUS HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN.

WE SORT OF SIT IN NO MAN`S LAND SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR JUST
STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...ALL WHILE WE AWAIT UPSTREAM
TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH PHASING CAN GET TAKE PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SATURATION SHRINKING BELOW 850MB BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONLY SLOWLY KICKING INTO GEAR. THAT THREAT SHOULD BE GONE
NO LATER THAN 03-06Z AS SOME VERY CHILLY AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO KICKS OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY.

NOW...SPEAKING OF POTENTIAL PHASING TO OUR SOUTH...GUIDANCE TRENDS
AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION CONTINUE TO FAVOR LITTLE IMPACT THIS
FAR NORTH HEADING INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL ACT TO
BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE STRONGER WAVE OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY. NOT HELPING MATTERS WILL ALSO BE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING (SURFACE PRESSURES NEARING 1044MB TO OUR
WEST)...ALSO ACTING AS A FORMIDABLE BLOCK TO ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO SKIRT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. GIVEN THAT SCENARIO...COULD WELL END UP SEEING A
GOOD DEAL OF INLAND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS NORTH FLOW FAVORS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES BUT POTENTIALLY SOME QUITE COLD CONDITIONS INLAND. SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR (H8 TEMPS IN THE -19C TO -23C RANGE) AND
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ARGUES FOR ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHERE LAKE EFFECT DOES EXIST...AS FLAKE SIZE WILL BE QUITE SMALL
WITH THE DGZ BASICALLY AT GROUND LEVEL. SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SPOTS TO DIP BELOW -10F SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDED WINDS AND CLOUDS
COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WE NOW RETURN YOU TO NORMAL WINTER WEATHER (THOUGH ARGUABLY THERE IS
NO SUCH THING AS "NORMAL WEATHER" IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN). BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK...REINFORCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
EMANATING SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRAG SEVERAL COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OF COURSE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE... AS IT OFTEN IS IN SUCH SETUPS...BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD PLACE ONE WAVE ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL WAVE DOES AT LEAST PEAK
SOME INTEREST GIVEN A PERSISTENT AND DECENT FGEN SIGNAL NOTED FOR A
FEW DAYS NOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. OUTSIDE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...
SIMPLE STEP-DOWN TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MANDATES
DAILY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW WANING...

STILL GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (MBL/TVC) WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS HIGHER PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED...WHICH SHOULD WORK
THEIR WAY BACK INTO PLN AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTIER WINDS FOR AWHILE LONGER
AT APN WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND SNOW AND KEEP VSBYS REDUCED.

SKIES WILL REMAIN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR ACROSS NW LOWER...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE APN...POSSIBLY SCATTERING
THEM OUT...POSSIBLY PLN FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN
WITH ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD



000
FXUS63 KDTX 301116
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
616 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

DEEP COLUMN DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LEAD TO
IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY...DIMINISHING
QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS WIND DIRECTIONS BACK TO THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...CIGS AT OR BELOW 3500 FT AGL WILL SCATTER OUT VERY QUICKLY
IN THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OTHERWISE VFR
CONTIONS ARE ANITICPATED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...MEDIUM FOR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A CONTRACTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDENT SHORTWAVE IS
DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AT 8Z. INCREASED MIXING DEPTHS
AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
LED TO BLUSTERLY CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE.

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADDITION TO A REASONABLY DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER HANGING AROUND -15C RESULTED IN A WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
GAUGING FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REFLECTIVITY...SUSPECT THAT
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT AND LIKELY EVEN INDISCERNIBLE
GIVEN THE BLOWING COMPONENT. THE DEPENDENCE OF THE SETUP ON
THERMODYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SUGGESTS THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY WIND
DOWN THIS MORNING AS DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA DRIES OUT THE
800-900MB LAYER. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS TO OCCUR BY 8AM. LAST FEW
REFLECTIVITY IMAGES...SHOW SOME BANDING OF THE SNOW. THIS APPEARS TO
BE A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO MASS CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF YET
ANOTHER THETA E DISCONTINUITY. OVERALL STRUCTURE AND APPEARANCE
SUGGESTS A SQUALL LIKE BEHAVIOR. THE PROBLEM IS...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SFC OBSERVATIONS...AND IF THIS IS IN FACT
THE FORCING...LONGEVITY OF THE SETUP IS VERY SHORT TERM...OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR LESS. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL END
BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL MONITOR FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS WITH SPS IF NEED BE.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO A NEGATIVE TILT PUSHING WELL
EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
AGGRESSIVELY BUILD EASTWARD. EXPECT BREEZY NORTHERLIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLD...RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES
FOR HIGHS.

A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO ZIP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT NUDGING THE THETA E GRADIENT UP AGAINST SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL ARRIVE...BUT UNDER A HEAVY DOSE OF
SHEARING/CONFLUENCE ALOFT. QUALITATIVELY...THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
CORRECT SPOT FOR ASCENT DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT. FOR THIS
REASON WILL INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE BELOW 10
KFT AGL WILL BE LACKING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MASSAGED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD GIVEN THE PROJECTED
DEWPOINTS...CURRENT FORECAST WILL HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRIMARY FOCUS DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD CENTERS ON THE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT PERIODS...WITH A SIZABLE SHIFT IN EXPECTATIONS TOWARD A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IMPACTING
A PORTION OF SE MICHIGAN.

COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...FEATURING A
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED OVER BAJA TUCKED BENEATH
AN ENERGETIC WEST-NORTHWEST NORTHERN STREAM.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
ATTENDANT TO A LEAD CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA WILL SHIFT AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODEST THERMAL RESPONSE ON SATURDAY AS THE
THE PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TEMPORARILY TAKES HOLD.  THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 30 DEGREE RANGE.  A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE QUALITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
SLOPE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE
LIMITED DURATION AND INTENSITY.

A PIECE OF THE SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW WILL SHEAR EAST-NORTHEAST
COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER WAVE EMANATING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA.  THE INTERACTION OF THIS ENERGY YIELDING
CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE IN RECENT DAYS...BUT
HAVE LARGELY CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SPACE WHICH NOW PROVIDES A
NOTEWORTHY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE POSITIONING OF THE GOVERNING
DYNAMICS AND A CORRESPONDING SHIFT TOWARD GREATER SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.  THIS PROCESS WILL INITIATE AN AGGRESSIVE NORTHEASTWARD
ADVECTION OF THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY TIED TO
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LOW.   THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY WORK ACROSS
THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE EXITING ARCTIC FRONT...RESULTING IN AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SNOWFALL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SETUP
POINTS TOWARD A LONG DURATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL SUNDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCED THROUGH A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS AND INCREMENTAL SPIKES IN CVA.  A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AND
DIMINISHING ASCENT WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL MAINTAIN A FIRM
NORTHERN GRADIENT TO THIS SNOWFALL...PROVIDING A HIGHER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB
CORRIDOR.

MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ALLOW SPECIFIC HUMIDITY WITHIN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER TO REACH 3 G/KG DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT.  THE LONG
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS ENVIRONMENT TRANSLATES INTO A SIGNIFICANT
UPTICK IN QPF WITHIN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF.  AT THIS STAGE AND GIVEN THE
SIZABLE MODEL ADJUSTMENT...GOING FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE NAM...WITH A LEERY EYE ON THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS NOW SHOWN ON
THE ECMWF /.4" M-59 CORRIDOR TO .7" OHIO BORDER/.  THE ENSUING POST-
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE A COLDER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN PLACE...SUGGESTING SNOW RATIOS WILL ARRIVE
ABOVE CLIMO /BALLPARK 16-17:1 AT THIS STAGE/.  A BROADER 3 TO 6 INCH
TYPE SWATH LOOKS ATTAINABLE...WITH A 6+ INCH BAND NOW WITHIN THE
ENVELOP OF POSSIBILITIES.

MARINE...

ONGOING NORTHWEST GALES ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WILL EASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THIS HIGH.  ARCTIC FRONT SHIFT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-441-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ362-363-421-
     441>443-462>464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 301116
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
616 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

DEEP COLUMN DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LEAD TO
IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY...DIMINISHING
QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS WIND DIRECTIONS BACK TO THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...CIGS AT OR BELOW 3500 FT AGL WILL SCATTER OUT VERY QUICKLY
IN THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OTHERWISE VFR
CONTIONS ARE ANITICPATED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...MEDIUM FOR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A CONTRACTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDENT SHORTWAVE IS
DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AT 8Z. INCREASED MIXING DEPTHS
AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
LED TO BLUSTERLY CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE.

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADDITION TO A REASONABLY DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER HANGING AROUND -15C RESULTED IN A WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
GAUGING FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REFLECTIVITY...SUSPECT THAT
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT AND LIKELY EVEN INDISCERNIBLE
GIVEN THE BLOWING COMPONENT. THE DEPENDENCE OF THE SETUP ON
THERMODYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SUGGESTS THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY WIND
DOWN THIS MORNING AS DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA DRIES OUT THE
800-900MB LAYER. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS TO OCCUR BY 8AM. LAST FEW
REFLECTIVITY IMAGES...SHOW SOME BANDING OF THE SNOW. THIS APPEARS TO
BE A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO MASS CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF YET
ANOTHER THETA E DISCONTINUITY. OVERALL STRUCTURE AND APPEARANCE
SUGGESTS A SQUALL LIKE BEHAVIOR. THE PROBLEM IS...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SFC OBSERVATIONS...AND IF THIS IS IN FACT
THE FORCING...LONGEVITY OF THE SETUP IS VERY SHORT TERM...OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR LESS. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL END
BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL MONITOR FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS WITH SPS IF NEED BE.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO A NEGATIVE TILT PUSHING WELL
EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
AGGRESSIVELY BUILD EASTWARD. EXPECT BREEZY NORTHERLIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLD...RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES
FOR HIGHS.

A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO ZIP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT NUDGING THE THETA E GRADIENT UP AGAINST SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL ARRIVE...BUT UNDER A HEAVY DOSE OF
SHEARING/CONFLUENCE ALOFT. QUALITATIVELY...THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
CORRECT SPOT FOR ASCENT DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT. FOR THIS
REASON WILL INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE BELOW 10
KFT AGL WILL BE LACKING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MASSAGED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD GIVEN THE PROJECTED
DEWPOINTS...CURRENT FORECAST WILL HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRIMARY FOCUS DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD CENTERS ON THE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT PERIODS...WITH A SIZABLE SHIFT IN EXPECTATIONS TOWARD A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IMPACTING
A PORTION OF SE MICHIGAN.

COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...FEATURING A
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED OVER BAJA TUCKED BENEATH
AN ENERGETIC WEST-NORTHWEST NORTHERN STREAM.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
ATTENDANT TO A LEAD CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA WILL SHIFT AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODEST THERMAL RESPONSE ON SATURDAY AS THE
THE PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TEMPORARILY TAKES HOLD.  THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 30 DEGREE RANGE.  A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE QUALITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
SLOPE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE
LIMITED DURATION AND INTENSITY.

A PIECE OF THE SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW WILL SHEAR EAST-NORTHEAST
COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER WAVE EMANATING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA.  THE INTERACTION OF THIS ENERGY YIELDING
CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE IN RECENT DAYS...BUT
HAVE LARGELY CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SPACE WHICH NOW PROVIDES A
NOTEWORTHY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE POSITIONING OF THE GOVERNING
DYNAMICS AND A CORRESPONDING SHIFT TOWARD GREATER SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.  THIS PROCESS WILL INITIATE AN AGGRESSIVE NORTHEASTWARD
ADVECTION OF THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY TIED TO
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LOW.   THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY WORK ACROSS
THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE EXITING ARCTIC FRONT...RESULTING IN AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SNOWFALL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SETUP
POINTS TOWARD A LONG DURATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL SUNDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCED THROUGH A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS AND INCREMENTAL SPIKES IN CVA.  A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AND
DIMINISHING ASCENT WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL MAINTAIN A FIRM
NORTHERN GRADIENT TO THIS SNOWFALL...PROVIDING A HIGHER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB
CORRIDOR.

MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ALLOW SPECIFIC HUMIDITY WITHIN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER TO REACH 3 G/KG DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT.  THE LONG
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS ENVIRONMENT TRANSLATES INTO A SIGNIFICANT
UPTICK IN QPF WITHIN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF.  AT THIS STAGE AND GIVEN THE
SIZABLE MODEL ADJUSTMENT...GOING FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE NAM...WITH A LEERY EYE ON THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS NOW SHOWN ON
THE ECMWF /.4" M-59 CORRIDOR TO .7" OHIO BORDER/.  THE ENSUING POST-
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE A COLDER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN PLACE...SUGGESTING SNOW RATIOS WILL ARRIVE
ABOVE CLIMO /BALLPARK 16-17:1 AT THIS STAGE/.  A BROADER 3 TO 6 INCH
TYPE SWATH LOOKS ATTAINABLE...WITH A 6+ INCH BAND NOW WITHIN THE
ENVELOP OF POSSIBILITIES.

MARINE...

ONGOING NORTHWEST GALES ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WILL EASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THIS HIGH.  ARCTIC FRONT SHIFT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-441-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ362-363-421-
     441>443-462>464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WHILE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE E OF
MARQUETTE...THE WINDS ARE NO WHERE NEAR THE 35-45 MPH WINDS THAT WE
HAD YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
TO AROUND 3KFT OR LESS THIS MORNING...SO DESPITE -16 TO -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...LIMITED MOISTURE IS
RESULTING IN MORE ANEMIC BROKEN LINES OF LES. THE FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY WILL SHIFT E LATE THIS
MORNING AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE W /AND EVEN OUT OF THE SW OVER
THE E TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA/. LES ADVISORY FOR ALGER AND N
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WAS ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 5AM...WHICH TIMED OUT
WITH THE RE-OPENING OF M-28 FROM E OF HARVEY TO MUNISING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY RISE INTO THE TEENS TODAY DESPITE WAA
AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AN AVERAGE -13C BY 00Z SATURDAY.
STILL...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. KEPT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OUT E...WHERE THEY WILL NEED TO RECOVER FROM 0F VALUES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT...ANY BREAK IN THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED. ALREADY SEEING SNOW FALLING ACROSS S MANITOBA WITH THE
NEXT WAVE NEARING UPPER MI. LOOK FOR THE SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM
JUST NW OF LAKE MI THROUGH MO TO SINK TO THE OH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. LOOK TO TAKE IT/S PLACE...SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW INCREASING W TO E
LATE TONIGHT...AND BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AFTER 06Z AS WINS TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW/UPSLOPE FOR THE W HALF OF
THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT 0.5 TO
NEAR 2 IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.

MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

GALES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO
AN END OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 15Z TODAY AS LIGHTER
WINDS TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH E
MN AND W WI WILL SINK TO THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WHILE EXTENDING A
RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR A TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...AND EXIT INTO
SE ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS W AND
CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NW GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. LOOK FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE HOISTED LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AND THEN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
LIKELY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-
     085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ263-264-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     LSZ264-266-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WHILE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE E OF
MARQUETTE...THE WINDS ARE NO WHERE NEAR THE 35-45 MPH WINDS THAT WE
HAD YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
TO AROUND 3KFT OR LESS THIS MORNING...SO DESPITE -16 TO -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...LIMITED MOISTURE IS
RESULTING IN MORE ANEMIC BROKEN LINES OF LES. THE FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY WILL SHIFT E LATE THIS
MORNING AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE W /AND EVEN OUT OF THE SW OVER
THE E TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA/. LES ADVISORY FOR ALGER AND N
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WAS ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 5AM...WHICH TIMED OUT
WITH THE RE-OPENING OF M-28 FROM E OF HARVEY TO MUNISING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY RISE INTO THE TEENS TODAY DESPITE WAA
AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AN AVERAGE -13C BY 00Z SATURDAY.
STILL...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. KEPT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OUT E...WHERE THEY WILL NEED TO RECOVER FROM 0F VALUES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT...ANY BREAK IN THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED. ALREADY SEEING SNOW FALLING ACROSS S MANITOBA WITH THE
NEXT WAVE NEARING UPPER MI. LOOK FOR THE SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM
JUST NW OF LAKE MI THROUGH MO TO SINK TO THE OH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. LOOK TO TAKE IT/S PLACE...SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW INCREASING W TO E
LATE TONIGHT...AND BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AFTER 06Z AS WINS TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW/UPSLOPE FOR THE W HALF OF
THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT 0.5 TO
NEAR 2 IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.

MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

GALES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO
AN END OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 15Z TODAY AS LIGHTER
WINDS TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH E
MN AND W WI WILL SINK TO THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WHILE EXTENDING A
RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR A TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...AND EXIT INTO
SE ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS W AND
CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NW GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. LOOK FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE HOISTED LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AND THEN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
LIKELY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-
     085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ263-264-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     LSZ264-266-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 301001
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.

MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

GALES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO
AN END OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 15Z TODAY AS LIGHTER
WINDS TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH E
MN AND W WI WILL SINK TO THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WHILE EXTENDING A
RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR A TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...AND EXIT INTO
SE ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS W AND
CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NW GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. LOOK FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE HOISTED LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AND THEN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
LIKELY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ264-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 301001
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.

MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

GALES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO
AN END OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 15Z TODAY AS LIGHTER
WINDS TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH E
MN AND W WI WILL SINK TO THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WHILE EXTENDING A
RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR A TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...AND EXIT INTO
SE ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS W AND
CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NW GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. LOOK FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE HOISTED LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AND THEN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
LIKELY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ264-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.

MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ264-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA



000
FXUS63 KMQT 300956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.

MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ264-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA



000
FXUS63 KMQT 300956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.

MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ264-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA



000
FXUS63 KMQT 300956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.

MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ264-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA



000
FXUS63 KDTX 300900
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A CONTRACTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDENT SHORTWAVE IS
DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AT 8Z. INCREASED MIXING DEPTHS
AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
LED TO BLUSTERLY CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE.

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADDITION TO A REASONABLY DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER HANGING AROUND -15C RESULTED IN A WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
GAUGING FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REFLECTIVITY...SUSPECT THAT
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT AND LIKELY EVEN INDISCERNIBLE
GIVEN THE BLOWING COMPONENT. THE DEPENDENCE OF THE SETUP ON
THERMODYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SUGGESTS THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY WIND
DOWN THIS MORNING AS DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA DRIES OUT THE
800-900MB LAYER. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS TO OCCUR BY 8AM. LAST FEW
REFLECTIVITY IMAGES...SHOW SOME BANDING OF THE SNOW. THIS APPEARS TO
BE A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO MASS CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF YET
ANOTHER THETA E DISCONTINUITY. OVERALL STRUCTURE AND APPEARANCE
SUGGESTS A SQUALL LIKE BEHAVIOR. THE PROBLEM IS...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SFC OBSERVATIONS...AND IF THIS IS IN FACT
THE FORCING...LONGEVITY OF THE SETUP IS VERY SHORT TERM...OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR LESS. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL END
BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL MONITOR FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS WITH SPS IF NEED BE.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO A NEGATIVE TILT PUSHING WELL
EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
AGGRESSIVELY BUILD EASTWARD. EXPECT BREEZY NORTHERLIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLD...RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES
FOR HIGHS.

A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO ZIP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT NUDGING THE THETA E GRADIENT UP AGAINST SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL ARRIVE...BUT UNDER A HEAVY DOSE OF
SHEARING/CONFLUENCE ALOFT. QUALITATIVELY...THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
CORRECT SPOT FOR ASCENT DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT. FOR THIS
REASON WILL INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE BELOW 10
KFT AGL WILL BE LACKING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MASSAGED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD GIVEN THE PROJECTED
DEWPOINTS...CURRENT FORECAST WILL HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRIMARY FOCUS DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD CENTERS ON THE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT PERIODS...WITH A SIZABLE SHIFT IN EXPECTATIONS TOWARD A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IMPACTING
A PORTION OF SE MICHIGAN.

COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...FEATURING A
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED OVER BAJA TUCKED BENEATH
AN ENERGETIC WEST-NORTHWEST NORTHERN STREAM.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
ATTENDANT TO A LEAD CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA WILL SHIFT AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODEST THERMAL RESPONSE ON SATURDAY AS THE
THE PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TEMPORARILY TAKES HOLD.  THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 30 DEGREE RANGE.  A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE QUALITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
SLOPE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE
LIMITED DURATION AND INTENSITY.

A PIECE OF THE SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW WILL SHEAR EAST-NORTHEAST
COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER WAVE EMANATING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA.  THE INTERACTION OF THIS ENERGY YIELDING
CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE IN RECENT DAYS...BUT
HAVE LARGELY CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SPACE WHICH NOW PROVIDES A
NOTEWORTHY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE POSITIONING OF THE GOVERNING
DYNAMICS AND A CORRESPONDING SHIFT TOWARD GREATER SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.  THIS PROCESS WILL INITIATE AN AGGRESSIVE NORTHEASTWARD
ADVECTION OF THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY TIED TO
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LOW.   THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY WORK ACROSS
THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE EXITING ARCTIC FRONT...RESULTING IN AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SNOWFALL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SETUP
POINTS TOWARD A LONG DURATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL SUNDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCED THROUGH A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS AND INCREMENTAL SPIKES IN CVA.  A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AND
DIMINISHING ASCENT WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL MAINTAIN A FIRM
NORTHERN GRADIENT TO THIS SNOWFALL...PROVIDING A HIGHER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB
CORRIDOR.

MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ALLOW SPECIFIC HUMIDITY WITHIN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER TO REACH 3 G/KG DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT.  THE LONG
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS ENVIRONMENT TRANSLATES INTO A SIGNIFICANT
UPTICK IN QPF WITHIN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF.  AT THIS STAGE AND GIVEN THE
SIZABLE MODEL ADJUSTMENT...GOING FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE NAM...WITH A LEERY EYE ON THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS NOW SHOWN ON
THE ECMWF /.4" M-59 CORRIDOR TO .7" OHIO BORDER/.  THE ENSUING POST-
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE A COLDER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN PLACE...SUGGESTING SNOW RATIOS WILL ARRIVE
ABOVE CLIMO /BALLPARK 16-17:1 AT THIS STAGE/.  A BROADER 3 TO 6 INCH
TYPE SWATH LOOKS ATTAINABLE...WITH A 6+ INCH BAND NOW WITHIN THE
ENVELOP OF POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

ONGOING NORTHWEST GALES ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WILL EASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THIS HIGH.  ARCTIC FRONT SHIFT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES...OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS TEH WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL CLEAR OUT THE CEILINGS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.

FOR DTW...CIGS AROUND 3000 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR IN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT OVERNIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-441-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ362-363-421-
     441>443-462>464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 300835
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MAJOR FORESEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW END RISK FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
OVERALL IMPACT LOOKS MINOR GIVEN ALREADY SNOW COVERED/SLUSHY ROADS
THAT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FAMILIAR-LOOKING PATTERN WITH THE PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING...SOME DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA AND SOME
SKIRTING JUST NORTH. SATURDAY`S ITERATION WILL FEATURE A MODEST WAVE
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF THE UPPER FORCING WITH
SAID WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING US HINGING OUR BETS ON
WHATEVER SORT OF LOW LEVEL/FRONTAL FORCING WE CAN MUSTER FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. BRIEF BUT NOTABLE INTRUSION OF "WARMER" AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE
800MB AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING ABOVE -10C AT LEAST RAISING AN
EYEBROW TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS TO ME JUST LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO COOL TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EVEN IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR (MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF M-32)...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINOR GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY IT WOULD OCCUR (DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). FARTHER NORTH...WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE UP TO 800MB WITH CLOUD TEMPS DOWN AS LOW AS -15C SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MINOR BUT IT WILL LIKELY SNOW...THUS HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN.

WE SORT OF SIT IN NO MAN`S LAND SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR JUST
STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...ALL WHILE WE AWAIT UPSTREAM
TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH PHASING CAN GET TAKE PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SATURATION SHRINKING BELOW 850MB BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONLY SLOWLY KICKING INTO GEAR. THAT THREAT SHOULD BE GONE
NO LATER THAN 03-06Z AS SOME VERY CHILLY AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO KICKS OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY.

NOW...SPEAKING OF POTENTIAL PHASING TO OUR SOUTH...GUIDANCE TRENDS
AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION CONTINUE TO FAVOR LITTLE IMPACT THIS
FAR NORTH HEADING INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL ACT TO
BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE STRONGER WAVE OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY. NOT HELPING MATTERS WILL ALSO BE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING (SURFACE PRESSURES NEARING 1044MB TO OUR
WEST)...ALSO ACTING AS A FORMIDABLE BLOCK TO ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO SKIRT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. GIVEN THAT SCENARIO...COULD WELL END UP SEEING A
GOOD DEAL OF INLAND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS NORTH FLOW FAVORS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES BUT POTENTIALLY SOME QUITE COLD CONDITIONS INLAND. SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR (H8 TEMPS IN THE -19C TO -23C RANGE) AND
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ARGUES FOR ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHERE LAKE EFFECT DOES EXIST...AS FLAKE SIZE WILL BE QUITE SMALL
WITH THE DGZ BASICALLY AT GROUND LEVEL. SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SPOTS TO DIP BELOW -10F SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDED WINDS AND CLOUDS
COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WE NOW RETURN YOU TO NORMAL WINTER WEATHER (THOUGH ARGUABLY THERE IS
NO SUCH THING AS "NORMAL WEATHER" IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN). BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK...REINFORCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
EMANATING SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRAG SEVERAL COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OF COURSE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE... AS IT OFTEN IS IN SUCH SETUPS...BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD PLACE ONE WAVE ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL WAVE DOES AT LEAST PEAK
SOME INTEREST GIVEN A PERSISTENT AND DECENT FGEN SIGNAL NOTED FOR A
FEW DAYS NOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. OUTSIDE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...
SIMPLE STEP-DOWN TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MANDATES
DAILY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW...

GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RIP DOWN AND ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
FOR MAINLY TVC AND MBL. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PLN MORE INFREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR RIPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WILL
BRING A POSSIBLE CLEARING MVFR CLOUD DECK TO PLN/APN BY DAYBREAK.
FEEL THE NEED TO HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS LONGER...INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND KEEP
VSBYS DOWN INTO MAINLY MVFR RANGES...BUT CERTAINLY SOME SPORADIC
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON...COMING INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND LIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SHOVE MVFR
LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES BACK INTO MUCH OF NW LOWER. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SYSTEM
SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 300835
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MAJOR FORESEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW END RISK FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
OVERALL IMPACT LOOKS MINOR GIVEN ALREADY SNOW COVERED/SLUSHY ROADS
THAT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FAMILIAR-LOOKING PATTERN WITH THE PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING...SOME DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA AND SOME
SKIRTING JUST NORTH. SATURDAY`S ITERATION WILL FEATURE A MODEST WAVE
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF THE UPPER FORCING WITH
SAID WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING US HINGING OUR BETS ON
WHATEVER SORT OF LOW LEVEL/FRONTAL FORCING WE CAN MUSTER FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. BRIEF BUT NOTABLE INTRUSION OF "WARMER" AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE
800MB AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING ABOVE -10C AT LEAST RAISING AN
EYEBROW TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS TO ME JUST LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO COOL TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EVEN IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR (MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF M-32)...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINOR GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY IT WOULD OCCUR (DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). FARTHER NORTH...WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE UP TO 800MB WITH CLOUD TEMPS DOWN AS LOW AS -15C SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MINOR BUT IT WILL LIKELY SNOW...THUS HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN.

WE SORT OF SIT IN NO MAN`S LAND SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR JUST
STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...ALL WHILE WE AWAIT UPSTREAM
TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH PHASING CAN GET TAKE PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SATURATION SHRINKING BELOW 850MB BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONLY SLOWLY KICKING INTO GEAR. THAT THREAT SHOULD BE GONE
NO LATER THAN 03-06Z AS SOME VERY CHILLY AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO KICKS OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY.

NOW...SPEAKING OF POTENTIAL PHASING TO OUR SOUTH...GUIDANCE TRENDS
AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION CONTINUE TO FAVOR LITTLE IMPACT THIS
FAR NORTH HEADING INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL ACT TO
BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE STRONGER WAVE OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY. NOT HELPING MATTERS WILL ALSO BE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING (SURFACE PRESSURES NEARING 1044MB TO OUR
WEST)...ALSO ACTING AS A FORMIDABLE BLOCK TO ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO SKIRT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. GIVEN THAT SCENARIO...COULD WELL END UP SEEING A
GOOD DEAL OF INLAND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS NORTH FLOW FAVORS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES BUT POTENTIALLY SOME QUITE COLD CONDITIONS INLAND. SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR (H8 TEMPS IN THE -19C TO -23C RANGE) AND
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ARGUES FOR ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHERE LAKE EFFECT DOES EXIST...AS FLAKE SIZE WILL BE QUITE SMALL
WITH THE DGZ BASICALLY AT GROUND LEVEL. SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SPOTS TO DIP BELOW -10F SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDED WINDS AND CLOUDS
COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WE NOW RETURN YOU TO NORMAL WINTER WEATHER (THOUGH ARGUABLY THERE IS
NO SUCH THING AS "NORMAL WEATHER" IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN). BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK...REINFORCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
EMANATING SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRAG SEVERAL COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OF COURSE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE... AS IT OFTEN IS IN SUCH SETUPS...BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD PLACE ONE WAVE ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL WAVE DOES AT LEAST PEAK
SOME INTEREST GIVEN A PERSISTENT AND DECENT FGEN SIGNAL NOTED FOR A
FEW DAYS NOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. OUTSIDE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...
SIMPLE STEP-DOWN TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MANDATES
DAILY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW...

GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RIP DOWN AND ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
FOR MAINLY TVC AND MBL. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PLN MORE INFREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR RIPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WILL
BRING A POSSIBLE CLEARING MVFR CLOUD DECK TO PLN/APN BY DAYBREAK.
FEEL THE NEED TO HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS LONGER...INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND KEEP
VSBYS DOWN INTO MAINLY MVFR RANGES...BUT CERTAINLY SOME SPORADIC
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON...COMING INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND LIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SHOVE MVFR
LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES BACK INTO MUCH OF NW LOWER. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SYSTEM
SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 300835
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MAJOR FORESEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW END RISK FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
OVERALL IMPACT LOOKS MINOR GIVEN ALREADY SNOW COVERED/SLUSHY ROADS
THAT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FAMILIAR-LOOKING PATTERN WITH THE PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING...SOME DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA AND SOME
SKIRTING JUST NORTH. SATURDAY`S ITERATION WILL FEATURE A MODEST WAVE
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF THE UPPER FORCING WITH
SAID WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING US HINGING OUR BETS ON
WHATEVER SORT OF LOW LEVEL/FRONTAL FORCING WE CAN MUSTER FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. BRIEF BUT NOTABLE INTRUSION OF "WARMER" AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE
800MB AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING ABOVE -10C AT LEAST RAISING AN
EYEBROW TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS TO ME JUST LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO COOL TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EVEN IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR (MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF M-32)...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINOR GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY IT WOULD OCCUR (DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). FARTHER NORTH...WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE UP TO 800MB WITH CLOUD TEMPS DOWN AS LOW AS -15C SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MINOR BUT IT WILL LIKELY SNOW...THUS HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN.

WE SORT OF SIT IN NO MAN`S LAND SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR JUST
STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...ALL WHILE WE AWAIT UPSTREAM
TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH PHASING CAN GET TAKE PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SATURATION SHRINKING BELOW 850MB BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONLY SLOWLY KICKING INTO GEAR. THAT THREAT SHOULD BE GONE
NO LATER THAN 03-06Z AS SOME VERY CHILLY AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO KICKS OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY.

NOW...SPEAKING OF POTENTIAL PHASING TO OUR SOUTH...GUIDANCE TRENDS
AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION CONTINUE TO FAVOR LITTLE IMPACT THIS
FAR NORTH HEADING INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL ACT TO
BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE STRONGER WAVE OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY. NOT HELPING MATTERS WILL ALSO BE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING (SURFACE PRESSURES NEARING 1044MB TO OUR
WEST)...ALSO ACTING AS A FORMIDABLE BLOCK TO ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO SKIRT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. GIVEN THAT SCENARIO...COULD WELL END UP SEEING A
GOOD DEAL OF INLAND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS NORTH FLOW FAVORS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES BUT POTENTIALLY SOME QUITE COLD CONDITIONS INLAND. SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR (H8 TEMPS IN THE -19C TO -23C RANGE) AND
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ARGUES FOR ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHERE LAKE EFFECT DOES EXIST...AS FLAKE SIZE WILL BE QUITE SMALL
WITH THE DGZ BASICALLY AT GROUND LEVEL. SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SPOTS TO DIP BELOW -10F SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDED WINDS AND CLOUDS
COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WE NOW RETURN YOU TO NORMAL WINTER WEATHER (THOUGH ARGUABLY THERE IS
NO SUCH THING AS "NORMAL WEATHER" IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN). BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK...REINFORCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
EMANATING SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRAG SEVERAL COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OF COURSE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE... AS IT OFTEN IS IN SUCH SETUPS...BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD PLACE ONE WAVE ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL WAVE DOES AT LEAST PEAK
SOME INTEREST GIVEN A PERSISTENT AND DECENT FGEN SIGNAL NOTED FOR A
FEW DAYS NOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. OUTSIDE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...
SIMPLE STEP-DOWN TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MANDATES
DAILY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW...

GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RIP DOWN AND ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
FOR MAINLY TVC AND MBL. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PLN MORE INFREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR RIPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WILL
BRING A POSSIBLE CLEARING MVFR CLOUD DECK TO PLN/APN BY DAYBREAK.
FEEL THE NEED TO HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS LONGER...INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND KEEP
VSBYS DOWN INTO MAINLY MVFR RANGES...BUT CERTAINLY SOME SPORADIC
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON...COMING INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND LIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SHOVE MVFR
LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES BACK INTO MUCH OF NW LOWER. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SYSTEM
SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 300835
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MAJOR FORESEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW END RISK FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
OVERALL IMPACT LOOKS MINOR GIVEN ALREADY SNOW COVERED/SLUSHY ROADS
THAT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FAMILIAR-LOOKING PATTERN WITH THE PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING...SOME DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA AND SOME
SKIRTING JUST NORTH. SATURDAY`S ITERATION WILL FEATURE A MODEST WAVE
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF THE UPPER FORCING WITH
SAID WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING US HINGING OUR BETS ON
WHATEVER SORT OF LOW LEVEL/FRONTAL FORCING WE CAN MUSTER FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. BRIEF BUT NOTABLE INTRUSION OF "WARMER" AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE
800MB AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING ABOVE -10C AT LEAST RAISING AN
EYEBROW TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS TO ME JUST LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO COOL TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EVEN IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR (MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF M-32)...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINOR GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY IT WOULD OCCUR (DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). FARTHER NORTH...WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE UP TO 800MB WITH CLOUD TEMPS DOWN AS LOW AS -15C SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MINOR BUT IT WILL LIKELY SNOW...THUS HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN.

WE SORT OF SIT IN NO MAN`S LAND SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR JUST
STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...ALL WHILE WE AWAIT UPSTREAM
TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH PHASING CAN GET TAKE PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SATURATION SHRINKING BELOW 850MB BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONLY SLOWLY KICKING INTO GEAR. THAT THREAT SHOULD BE GONE
NO LATER THAN 03-06Z AS SOME VERY CHILLY AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO KICKS OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY.

NOW...SPEAKING OF POTENTIAL PHASING TO OUR SOUTH...GUIDANCE TRENDS
AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION CONTINUE TO FAVOR LITTLE IMPACT THIS
FAR NORTH HEADING INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL ACT TO
BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE STRONGER WAVE OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY. NOT HELPING MATTERS WILL ALSO BE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING (SURFACE PRESSURES NEARING 1044MB TO OUR
WEST)...ALSO ACTING AS A FORMIDABLE BLOCK TO ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO SKIRT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. GIVEN THAT SCENARIO...COULD WELL END UP SEEING A
GOOD DEAL OF INLAND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS NORTH FLOW FAVORS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES BUT POTENTIALLY SOME QUITE COLD CONDITIONS INLAND. SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR (H8 TEMPS IN THE -19C TO -23C RANGE) AND
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ARGUES FOR ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHERE LAKE EFFECT DOES EXIST...AS FLAKE SIZE WILL BE QUITE SMALL
WITH THE DGZ BASICALLY AT GROUND LEVEL. SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SPOTS TO DIP BELOW -10F SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDED WINDS AND CLOUDS
COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WE NOW RETURN YOU TO NORMAL WINTER WEATHER (THOUGH ARGUABLY THERE IS
NO SUCH THING AS "NORMAL WEATHER" IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN). BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK...REINFORCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
EMANATING SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRAG SEVERAL COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OF COURSE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE... AS IT OFTEN IS IN SUCH SETUPS...BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD PLACE ONE WAVE ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL WAVE DOES AT LEAST PEAK
SOME INTEREST GIVEN A PERSISTENT AND DECENT FGEN SIGNAL NOTED FOR A
FEW DAYS NOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. OUTSIDE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...
SIMPLE STEP-DOWN TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MANDATES
DAILY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW...

GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RIP DOWN AND ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
FOR MAINLY TVC AND MBL. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PLN MORE INFREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR RIPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WILL
BRING A POSSIBLE CLEARING MVFR CLOUD DECK TO PLN/APN BY DAYBREAK.
FEEL THE NEED TO HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS LONGER...INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND KEEP
VSBYS DOWN INTO MAINLY MVFR RANGES...BUT CERTAINLY SOME SPORADIC
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON...COMING INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND LIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SHOVE MVFR
LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES BACK INTO MUCH OF NW LOWER. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SYSTEM
SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300818
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. TODAY WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF US-131.

A DEVELOPING STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY BUT MAY
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. COLD AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A POTENTIAL STORM SUNDAY AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE LIGHT SNOW TODAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA A FEW HOURS
AGO. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 20S AND WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE MORNING. EXPECT COLDER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 20. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SSE
ACROSS THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY GOOD WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR -17C
FLOWING OVER THE LAKE. THIS COLD AIR IS VERY TRANSITORY AND WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY PUTTING AN END TO THE SHSN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
BUFKIT RH PROFILES SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH NOT MUCH LIFT SO
ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SKIES MAY
BRIEFLY SCATTER BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD
BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND 10 TONIGHT BEFORE RISING AS CLOUDS MOVE IN BUT
THAT ISN`T CERTAIN AND I DIDN`T GO THAT LOW IN THE GRIDS EXCEPT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LAST TO MOVE
OVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW FROM IT. BUT MOISTURE ISN/T IMPRESSIVE AND SO LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED.

THE GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE NORTH. WE/VE INCREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. NAM BRINGS IN
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES FOR THIS SYSTEM IF THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS UP. SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-94.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEARING FOLLOWED BY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
OVER INTERIOR OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH LOWS OF 10 BELOW OR
COLDER POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-94...SNOW WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ANEMIC PROSPECTS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW STEADILY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COMPACT UPPER POT VORT ANOMALY. TUESDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY COULD SEE A QUICK AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ENSUING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING ALSO LOOKS INTERESTING WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT DEEP MOISTURE ARE
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. WE HAVE
SEEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF AND NOW AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS REGARDING THIS. CERTAINTY IS THEREFORE BUMPED UP A NOTCH BUT
STILL LOW OVERALL SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH A DAY 5/6 FORECAST.
WE CAN SAY WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER (AND MUCH COLDER) AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER MKG MAY SEE OCNL IFR VSBYS CONTINUE AS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE COAST.

SNOW SHOWERS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AT MIDNIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO END BY 4 AM OR SO AND SEVERAL TERMINALS MAY ACTUALLY SEE SKIES
BECOME SCATTERED BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY FILL BACK IN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR.

GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE... BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KTS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

ICE FORMATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN
AROUND 20 TODAY AND AROUND 15 SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93












000
FXUS63 KGRR 300818
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. TODAY WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF US-131.

A DEVELOPING STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY BUT MAY
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. COLD AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A POTENTIAL STORM SUNDAY AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE LIGHT SNOW TODAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA A FEW HOURS
AGO. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 20S AND WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE MORNING. EXPECT COLDER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 20. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SSE
ACROSS THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY GOOD WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR -17C
FLOWING OVER THE LAKE. THIS COLD AIR IS VERY TRANSITORY AND WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY PUTTING AN END TO THE SHSN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
BUFKIT RH PROFILES SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH NOT MUCH LIFT SO
ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SKIES MAY
BRIEFLY SCATTER BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD
BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND 10 TONIGHT BEFORE RISING AS CLOUDS MOVE IN BUT
THAT ISN`T CERTAIN AND I DIDN`T GO THAT LOW IN THE GRIDS EXCEPT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LAST TO MOVE
OVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW FROM IT. BUT MOISTURE ISN/T IMPRESSIVE AND SO LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED.

THE GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE NORTH. WE/VE INCREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. NAM BRINGS IN
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES FOR THIS SYSTEM IF THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS UP. SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-94.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEARING FOLLOWED BY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
OVER INTERIOR OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH LOWS OF 10 BELOW OR
COLDER POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-94...SNOW WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ANEMIC PROSPECTS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW STEADILY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COMPACT UPPER POT VORT ANOMALY. TUESDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY COULD SEE A QUICK AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ENSUING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING ALSO LOOKS INTERESTING WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT DEEP MOISTURE ARE
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. WE HAVE
SEEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF AND NOW AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS REGARDING THIS. CERTAINTY IS THEREFORE BUMPED UP A NOTCH BUT
STILL LOW OVERALL SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH A DAY 5/6 FORECAST.
WE CAN SAY WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER (AND MUCH COLDER) AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER MKG MAY SEE OCNL IFR VSBYS CONTINUE AS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE COAST.

SNOW SHOWERS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AT MIDNIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO END BY 4 AM OR SO AND SEVERAL TERMINALS MAY ACTUALLY SEE SKIES
BECOME SCATTERED BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY FILL BACK IN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR.

GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE... BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KTS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

ICE FORMATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN
AROUND 20 TODAY AND AROUND 15 SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93












000
FXUS63 KGRR 300818
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. TODAY WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF US-131.

A DEVELOPING STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY BUT MAY
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. COLD AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A POTENTIAL STORM SUNDAY AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE LIGHT SNOW TODAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA A FEW HOURS
AGO. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 20S AND WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE MORNING. EXPECT COLDER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 20. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SSE
ACROSS THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY GOOD WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR -17C
FLOWING OVER THE LAKE. THIS COLD AIR IS VERY TRANSITORY AND WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY PUTTING AN END TO THE SHSN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
BUFKIT RH PROFILES SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH NOT MUCH LIFT SO
ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SKIES MAY
BRIEFLY SCATTER BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD
BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND 10 TONIGHT BEFORE RISING AS CLOUDS MOVE IN BUT
THAT ISN`T CERTAIN AND I DIDN`T GO THAT LOW IN THE GRIDS EXCEPT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LAST TO MOVE
OVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW FROM IT. BUT MOISTURE ISN/T IMPRESSIVE AND SO LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED.

THE GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE NORTH. WE/VE INCREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. NAM BRINGS IN
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES FOR THIS SYSTEM IF THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS UP. SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-94.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEARING FOLLOWED BY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
OVER INTERIOR OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH LOWS OF 10 BELOW OR
COLDER POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-94...SNOW WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ANEMIC PROSPECTS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW STEADILY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COMPACT UPPER POT VORT ANOMALY. TUESDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY COULD SEE A QUICK AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ENSUING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING ALSO LOOKS INTERESTING WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT DEEP MOISTURE ARE
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. WE HAVE
SEEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF AND NOW AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS REGARDING THIS. CERTAINTY IS THEREFORE BUMPED UP A NOTCH BUT
STILL LOW OVERALL SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH A DAY 5/6 FORECAST.
WE CAN SAY WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER (AND MUCH COLDER) AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER MKG MAY SEE OCNL IFR VSBYS CONTINUE AS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE COAST.

SNOW SHOWERS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AT MIDNIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO END BY 4 AM OR SO AND SEVERAL TERMINALS MAY ACTUALLY SEE SKIES
BECOME SCATTERED BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY FILL BACK IN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR.

GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE... BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KTS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

ICE FORMATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN
AROUND 20 TODAY AND AROUND 15 SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93












000
FXUS63 KGRR 300818
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. TODAY WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF US-131.

A DEVELOPING STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY BUT MAY
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. COLD AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A POTENTIAL STORM SUNDAY AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE LIGHT SNOW TODAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA A FEW HOURS
AGO. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 20S AND WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE MORNING. EXPECT COLDER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 20. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SSE
ACROSS THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY GOOD WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR -17C
FLOWING OVER THE LAKE. THIS COLD AIR IS VERY TRANSITORY AND WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY PUTTING AN END TO THE SHSN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
BUFKIT RH PROFILES SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH NOT MUCH LIFT SO
ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SKIES MAY
BRIEFLY SCATTER BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD
BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND 10 TONIGHT BEFORE RISING AS CLOUDS MOVE IN BUT
THAT ISN`T CERTAIN AND I DIDN`T GO THAT LOW IN THE GRIDS EXCEPT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LAST TO MOVE
OVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW FROM IT. BUT MOISTURE ISN/T IMPRESSIVE AND SO LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED.

THE GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE NORTH. WE/VE INCREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. NAM BRINGS IN
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES FOR THIS SYSTEM IF THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS UP. SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-94.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEARING FOLLOWED BY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
OVER INTERIOR OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH LOWS OF 10 BELOW OR
COLDER POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-94...SNOW WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ANEMIC PROSPECTS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW STEADILY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COMPACT UPPER POT VORT ANOMALY. TUESDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY COULD SEE A QUICK AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ENSUING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING ALSO LOOKS INTERESTING WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT DEEP MOISTURE ARE
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. WE HAVE
SEEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF AND NOW AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS REGARDING THIS. CERTAINTY IS THEREFORE BUMPED UP A NOTCH BUT
STILL LOW OVERALL SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH A DAY 5/6 FORECAST.
WE CAN SAY WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER (AND MUCH COLDER) AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER MKG MAY SEE OCNL IFR VSBYS CONTINUE AS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE COAST.

SNOW SHOWERS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AT MIDNIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO END BY 4 AM OR SO AND SEVERAL TERMINALS MAY ACTUALLY SEE SKIES
BECOME SCATTERED BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY FILL BACK IN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR.

GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE... BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KTS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

ICE FORMATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN
AROUND 20 TODAY AND AROUND 15 SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93












000
FXUS63 KAPX 300600
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW...

GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RIP DOWN AND ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
FOR MAINLY TVC AND MBL. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PLN MORE INFREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR RIPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WILL
BRING A POSSIBLE CLEARING MVFR CLOUD DECK TO PLN/APN BY DAYBREAK.
FEEL THE NEED TO HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS LONGER...INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND KEEP
VSBYS DOWN INTO MAINLY MVFR RANGES...BUT CERTAINLY SOME SPORADIC
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON...COMING INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND LIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SHOVE MVFR
LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES BACK INTO MUCH OF NW LOWER. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SYSTEM
SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 300600
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW...

GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RIP DOWN AND ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
FOR MAINLY TVC AND MBL. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PLN MORE INFREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR RIPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WILL
BRING A POSSIBLE CLEARING MVFR CLOUD DECK TO PLN/APN BY DAYBREAK.
FEEL THE NEED TO HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS LONGER...INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND KEEP
VSBYS DOWN INTO MAINLY MVFR RANGES...BUT CERTAINLY SOME SPORADIC
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON...COMING INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND LIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SHOVE MVFR
LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES BACK INTO MUCH OF NW LOWER. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SYSTEM
SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD



000
FXUS63 KMQT 300504
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST AS THE FLOW OVER NAMERICA WILL FEATURE A W COAST RIDGE AND
CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH
TEMPS BLO TO AT TIMES MUCH BLO NORMAL...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS FOR PCPN...THIS IS A DRY PATTERN WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST DUE TO
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES.

BEGINNING FRI NIGHT/SAT...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRACK FROM NW MN IN THE EVENING TO NRN LWR MI BY SAT MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. UPPER MI WILL BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN
DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MODEST QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE SRN SHORTWAVE...ACCOMPANYING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
INFLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. STILL...WILL PROBABLY SEE AN AREA OF -SN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW GENERALLY
HIGHER END CHC POPS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES. SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS SAT MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE THE
TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -20 TO
-25C BY 00Z SUN...QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC
925MB NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING INVERSION TO 4KFT WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3
INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS...TEMPS WILL FALL THRU THE DAY AS
BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC
AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW. LOW INVERSION
AROUND 4KFT COMBINED WITH DGZ BEING MOSTLY ELIMINATED BY THE COLD
AIR MASS WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. ONLY
ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS
PRES GRADIENT/WIND SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN
UP OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE
SHORE BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E AS
CLOUDS/LES COULD SHIFT W IF WINDS BECOME EASTERLY DUE TO DRAINAGE
OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS
BACK DUE TO HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THE END OF THE AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING
THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA. IF THIS IS A TREND
THAT HOLDS UP...THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
LAKE ENANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WHATEVER HAPPENS...A SOLID SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WED INTO EARLY THU. WITH LOSS OF DGZ AND
LOW INVERSIONS SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT WED INTO THU. ALTHOUGH LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR WILL RESULT
IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY.
LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300504
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST AS THE FLOW OVER NAMERICA WILL FEATURE A W COAST RIDGE AND
CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH
TEMPS BLO TO AT TIMES MUCH BLO NORMAL...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS FOR PCPN...THIS IS A DRY PATTERN WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST DUE TO
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES.

BEGINNING FRI NIGHT/SAT...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRACK FROM NW MN IN THE EVENING TO NRN LWR MI BY SAT MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. UPPER MI WILL BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN
DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MODEST QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE SRN SHORTWAVE...ACCOMPANYING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
INFLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. STILL...WILL PROBABLY SEE AN AREA OF -SN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW GENERALLY
HIGHER END CHC POPS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES. SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS SAT MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE THE
TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -20 TO
-25C BY 00Z SUN...QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC
925MB NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING INVERSION TO 4KFT WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3
INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS...TEMPS WILL FALL THRU THE DAY AS
BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC
AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW. LOW INVERSION
AROUND 4KFT COMBINED WITH DGZ BEING MOSTLY ELIMINATED BY THE COLD
AIR MASS WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. ONLY
ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS
PRES GRADIENT/WIND SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN
UP OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE
SHORE BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E AS
CLOUDS/LES COULD SHIFT W IF WINDS BECOME EASTERLY DUE TO DRAINAGE
OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS
BACK DUE TO HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THE END OF THE AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING
THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA. IF THIS IS A TREND
THAT HOLDS UP...THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
LAKE ENANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WHATEVER HAPPENS...A SOLID SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WED INTO EARLY THU. WITH LOSS OF DGZ AND
LOW INVERSIONS SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT WED INTO THU. ALTHOUGH LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR WILL RESULT
IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY.
LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300504
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST AS THE FLOW OVER NAMERICA WILL FEATURE A W COAST RIDGE AND
CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH
TEMPS BLO TO AT TIMES MUCH BLO NORMAL...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS FOR PCPN...THIS IS A DRY PATTERN WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST DUE TO
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES.

BEGINNING FRI NIGHT/SAT...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRACK FROM NW MN IN THE EVENING TO NRN LWR MI BY SAT MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. UPPER MI WILL BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN
DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MODEST QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE SRN SHORTWAVE...ACCOMPANYING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
INFLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. STILL...WILL PROBABLY SEE AN AREA OF -SN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW GENERALLY
HIGHER END CHC POPS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES. SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS SAT MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE THE
TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -20 TO
-25C BY 00Z SUN...QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC
925MB NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING INVERSION TO 4KFT WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3
INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS...TEMPS WILL FALL THRU THE DAY AS
BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC
AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW. LOW INVERSION
AROUND 4KFT COMBINED WITH DGZ BEING MOSTLY ELIMINATED BY THE COLD
AIR MASS WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. ONLY
ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS
PRES GRADIENT/WIND SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN
UP OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE
SHORE BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E AS
CLOUDS/LES COULD SHIFT W IF WINDS BECOME EASTERLY DUE TO DRAINAGE
OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS
BACK DUE TO HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THE END OF THE AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING
THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA. IF THIS IS A TREND
THAT HOLDS UP...THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
LAKE ENANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WHATEVER HAPPENS...A SOLID SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WED INTO EARLY THU. WITH LOSS OF DGZ AND
LOW INVERSIONS SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT WED INTO THU. ALTHOUGH LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR WILL RESULT
IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY.
LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300504
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST AS THE FLOW OVER NAMERICA WILL FEATURE A W COAST RIDGE AND
CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH
TEMPS BLO TO AT TIMES MUCH BLO NORMAL...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS FOR PCPN...THIS IS A DRY PATTERN WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST DUE TO
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES.

BEGINNING FRI NIGHT/SAT...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRACK FROM NW MN IN THE EVENING TO NRN LWR MI BY SAT MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. UPPER MI WILL BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN
DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MODEST QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE SRN SHORTWAVE...ACCOMPANYING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
INFLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. STILL...WILL PROBABLY SEE AN AREA OF -SN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW GENERALLY
HIGHER END CHC POPS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES. SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS SAT MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE THE
TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -20 TO
-25C BY 00Z SUN...QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC
925MB NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING INVERSION TO 4KFT WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3
INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS...TEMPS WILL FALL THRU THE DAY AS
BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC
AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW. LOW INVERSION
AROUND 4KFT COMBINED WITH DGZ BEING MOSTLY ELIMINATED BY THE COLD
AIR MASS WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. ONLY
ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS
PRES GRADIENT/WIND SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN
UP OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE
SHORE BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E AS
CLOUDS/LES COULD SHIFT W IF WINDS BECOME EASTERLY DUE TO DRAINAGE
OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS
BACK DUE TO HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THE END OF THE AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING
THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA. IF THIS IS A TREND
THAT HOLDS UP...THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
LAKE ENANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WHATEVER HAPPENS...A SOLID SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WED INTO EARLY THU. WITH LOSS OF DGZ AND
LOW INVERSIONS SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT WED INTO THU. ALTHOUGH LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR WILL RESULT
IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY.
LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300501
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1201 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT TAKING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR FRIDAY LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER NRN WISCONSIN HAS
CAUSED A FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS
EVENING. VSBYS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR A MILE AT SOME LOCATIONS AS
SNOW BANDS MOVE SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. SHSN SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME AFTER 06Z AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST. UPDATED GRIDS OVER THE
WESTERN CWA TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACCOMPANYING THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE
FCST TO INCLUDE THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING...
MAINLY FROM GRR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED GIVEN
VERY LIGHT/PATCHY NATURE OF THE DRIZZLE AND THAT ROADS WERE
ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY TREATED FROM EARLIER EVENT.

THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PROBLEMS
KEEPING A SATURATED DGZ IN THE CLOUD LAYER...THUS THE PATCHY
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REINTRODUCES
A SATURATED DGZ AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT PER BUFKIT
OVERVIEWS... IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH WHETHER TO EXTEND
THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CLIMBING AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING.  THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING.  COLDER CLOUD TOPS
WERE PUSHING EAST OF LANSING SUPPORTING NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM  WHAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SNOW...EXCEPT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN AROUND INTERSTATE 94.  THERE
ENOUGH WARMTH IN THE LOW LEVELS EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR MELTING. ALSO
SPEEDS ON THE HIGHWAY ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL...SUGGESTING THE IMPACT
HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE EARLIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. AS A RESULT
OF ALL THIS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED SLIGHTLY
EARLY.

NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND THAT COULD WILL
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS SETUP
LOOKS WEAK. THE DGZ IS SHOWN TO BE MOIST...BUT SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS LOW. I
WILL FEATURE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST LIMITED CLOUDS TO
START THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AS A WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THE TIMING OF
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE FOR SNOW
EXISTS. IF THIS MOISTURE BECOMES ALIGNED...A BETTER SHOT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD EXIST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME OMEGA SHOWN
IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY WHILE THE DGZ IS UNSATURATED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK WITH LATER
FORECASTS.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE STORM ON SUNDAY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF SNOW
AS IT LOOKS TO JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS AND CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE MONDAY MORNING.

SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INLAND BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5 KFT WILL
LIMIT ACCUMS.

A CLIPPER ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES IN THE AREA OF BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VERY COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMS INTO THURSDAY WHEN SFC RIDGING LOWERS
INVERSION HEIGHTS BLO 3 KFT. THURSDAY IS ALSO PROGGED TO HAVE THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO MINUS 25C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER (AND MUCH COLDER) AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER MKG MAY SEE OCNL IFR VSBYS CONTINUE AS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE COAST.

SNOW SHOWERS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AT MIDNIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO END BY 4 AM OR SO AND SEVERAL TERMINALS MAY ACTUALLY SEE SKIES
BECOME SCATTERED BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY FILL BACK IN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR.

GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE... BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KTS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 300501
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1201 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT TAKING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR FRIDAY LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER NRN WISCONSIN HAS
CAUSED A FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS
EVENING. VSBYS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR A MILE AT SOME LOCATIONS AS
SNOW BANDS MOVE SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. SHSN SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME AFTER 06Z AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST. UPDATED GRIDS OVER THE
WESTERN CWA TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACCOMPANYING THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE
FCST TO INCLUDE THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING...
MAINLY FROM GRR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED GIVEN
VERY LIGHT/PATCHY NATURE OF THE DRIZZLE AND THAT ROADS WERE
ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY TREATED FROM EARLIER EVENT.

THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PROBLEMS
KEEPING A SATURATED DGZ IN THE CLOUD LAYER...THUS THE PATCHY
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REINTRODUCES
A SATURATED DGZ AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT PER BUFKIT
OVERVIEWS... IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH WHETHER TO EXTEND
THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CLIMBING AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING.  THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING.  COLDER CLOUD TOPS
WERE PUSHING EAST OF LANSING SUPPORTING NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM  WHAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SNOW...EXCEPT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN AROUND INTERSTATE 94.  THERE
ENOUGH WARMTH IN THE LOW LEVELS EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR MELTING. ALSO
SPEEDS ON THE HIGHWAY ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL...SUGGESTING THE IMPACT
HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE EARLIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. AS A RESULT
OF ALL THIS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED SLIGHTLY
EARLY.

NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND THAT COULD WILL
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS SETUP
LOOKS WEAK. THE DGZ IS SHOWN TO BE MOIST...BUT SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS LOW. I
WILL FEATURE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST LIMITED CLOUDS TO
START THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AS A WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THE TIMING OF
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE FOR SNOW
EXISTS. IF THIS MOISTURE BECOMES ALIGNED...A BETTER SHOT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD EXIST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME OMEGA SHOWN
IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY WHILE THE DGZ IS UNSATURATED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK WITH LATER
FORECASTS.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE STORM ON SUNDAY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF SNOW
AS IT LOOKS TO JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS AND CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE MONDAY MORNING.

SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INLAND BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5 KFT WILL
LIMIT ACCUMS.

A CLIPPER ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES IN THE AREA OF BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VERY COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMS INTO THURSDAY WHEN SFC RIDGING LOWERS
INVERSION HEIGHTS BLO 3 KFT. THURSDAY IS ALSO PROGGED TO HAVE THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO MINUS 25C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER (AND MUCH COLDER) AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER MKG MAY SEE OCNL IFR VSBYS CONTINUE AS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE COAST.

SNOW SHOWERS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AT MIDNIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO END BY 4 AM OR SO AND SEVERAL TERMINALS MAY ACTUALLY SEE SKIES
BECOME SCATTERED BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY FILL BACK IN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR.

GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE... BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KTS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM







000
FXUS63 KDTX 300453
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES...OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS TEH WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL CLEAR OUT THE CEILINGS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.

FOR DTW...CIGS AROUND 3000 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR IN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT OVERNIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 806 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATE...

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT
AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING CAME IN AT
ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM DETROIT NORTHWARD. WHILE THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT AN END TO THE SNOW...IT HAS BROUGHT A MARKED INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING LATER
TONIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AND WIND WILL SEND WIND CHILLS DOWN BELOW ZERO
LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 254 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ADVANCING ACROSS SE MI OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE NOW OVER OHIO AND BRIEF MID LEVEL
FGEN PRECEDING A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW WORKING INTO LAKE MI HAVE BEEN
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS DRIVING THIS PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COOLING TO SUPPORT A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW IN MOST LOCALS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
AND WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...HOLDING AMPLE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION. A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN
TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS SE MI DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT...LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S EARLY THIS EVENING. 925MB TEMPS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO PLUNGE TO -18C BY DAYBREAK FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE SFC TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOW TEENS/UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE AREA VIA STRONG
W-NW WINDS. WHILE THE SFC ISSALOBARIC COMPONENT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK...A PUSH OF GOOD SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC DESCENT TRAILING
THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SFC. RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS TOPPING 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL IN
TURN BE DRIVEN DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB ZERO READINGS BY
EARLY FRI MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE THIS EVENING
PRECEDING THE MID LEVEL WAVE...THE LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. LAKE CONTRIBUTION INTO SE
MI WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY THE MEAN NW WIND TRAJECTORIES. THUS JUST
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE /MAINLY ALONG THE
LEAD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT/.

LONG TERM...

HEALTHY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE UPPER
TEENS. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE EXHAUSTED DURING THE
DAY...AS FLOW WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE BETWEEN 1000-2000 FOOT
LAYER...ENOUGH FOR MENTION OF A FLURRY OR TWO.
HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH...UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY LAKE
FEED (EXCEPT FOR EASTERN THUMB SHORELINE WHERE MAIN LAKE BAND WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED)...WITH DOWN SLOPING COMPONENT INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WILL THUS ALLOW FOR GOOD SHARE OF
SUNSHINE...ALLOWING MAXES TO REACH INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES...WHICH IS STILL OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SEVERAL KEY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
THE FIRST ONE BEING THE INTENSE CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT...AND THUS BECOMES MERGED
WITH NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY. THE FAILURE OF THIS SYSTEM TO CLEAR EASTERN CANADA IN
TIMELY MANNER LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SUPPRESSING/DELAYING THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT SYSTEM IS RELYING ON
THE INTERACTION OF AT LEAST TWO UPPER WAVES...ONE ZIPPING OUT OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE OTHER BEING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THAT SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS AWFUL FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY A PIECE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO BREAK
OFF AND INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. AS SUCH...MODEL
CONSENSUS (GFS/NAM) IS FOR UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CONFLUENT FLOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UNDERNEATH TO WIN OUT OVER MUCH OF GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AS EVEN 12Z CANADIAN HAS ABANDONED SHIP
FROM ITS 00Z RUN. STILL...UNTIL THE WAVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
FULLY COMES ONSHORE AND MAGNITUDE IS RESOLVED...WILL NOT RULE OUT
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ALL TOGETHER FOR SUNDAY JUST YET...SEE 12Z
EURO/NAVGEM...BUT CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY HIGHEST TOWARD THE OHIO
BORDER WHERE WILL CARRY A 50 POP. A NORTHEAST COMPONENT OFF LAKE
HURON MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL DRY AIRMASS (SURFACE DEW PTS OF -20 TO -30 F
NEAR GEORGIAN BAY) AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE TOUGH TO
OVERCOME.

THE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THINGS
SETTLE DOWN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER LOOKING
AT TEMPS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.  THE
NEXT ACTIVE PERIOD RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER MOVES IN.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
QUICK RAMP UP TO NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
AIRTIC AIRMASS STREAMS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GALES
FOR MAJORITY OF LAKE HURON WITH LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING ENHANCING THE
FLOW...ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST-NORTH INCREASING THE
FETCH. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE
ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL THEN SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
     441-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441>443-
     462>464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
UPDATE.......KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 300453
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES...OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS TEH WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL CLEAR OUT THE CEILINGS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.

FOR DTW...CIGS AROUND 3000 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR IN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT OVERNIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 806 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATE...

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT
AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING CAME IN AT
ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM DETROIT NORTHWARD. WHILE THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT AN END TO THE SNOW...IT HAS BROUGHT A MARKED INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING LATER
TONIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AND WIND WILL SEND WIND CHILLS DOWN BELOW ZERO
LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 254 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ADVANCING ACROSS SE MI OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE NOW OVER OHIO AND BRIEF MID LEVEL
FGEN PRECEDING A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW WORKING INTO LAKE MI HAVE BEEN
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS DRIVING THIS PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COOLING TO SUPPORT A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW IN MOST LOCALS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
AND WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...HOLDING AMPLE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION. A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN
TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS SE MI DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT...LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S EARLY THIS EVENING. 925MB TEMPS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO PLUNGE TO -18C BY DAYBREAK FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE SFC TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOW TEENS/UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE AREA VIA STRONG
W-NW WINDS. WHILE THE SFC ISSALOBARIC COMPONENT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK...A PUSH OF GOOD SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC DESCENT TRAILING
THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SFC. RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS TOPPING 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL IN
TURN BE DRIVEN DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB ZERO READINGS BY
EARLY FRI MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE THIS EVENING
PRECEDING THE MID LEVEL WAVE...THE LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. LAKE CONTRIBUTION INTO SE
MI WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY THE MEAN NW WIND TRAJECTORIES. THUS JUST
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE /MAINLY ALONG THE
LEAD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT/.

LONG TERM...

HEALTHY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE UPPER
TEENS. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE EXHAUSTED DURING THE
DAY...AS FLOW WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE BETWEEN 1000-2000 FOOT
LAYER...ENOUGH FOR MENTION OF A FLURRY OR TWO.
HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH...UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY LAKE
FEED (EXCEPT FOR EASTERN THUMB SHORELINE WHERE MAIN LAKE BAND WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED)...WITH DOWN SLOPING COMPONENT INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WILL THUS ALLOW FOR GOOD SHARE OF
SUNSHINE...ALLOWING MAXES TO REACH INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES...WHICH IS STILL OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SEVERAL KEY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
THE FIRST ONE BEING THE INTENSE CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT...AND THUS BECOMES MERGED
WITH NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY. THE FAILURE OF THIS SYSTEM TO CLEAR EASTERN CANADA IN
TIMELY MANNER LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SUPPRESSING/DELAYING THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT SYSTEM IS RELYING ON
THE INTERACTION OF AT LEAST TWO UPPER WAVES...ONE ZIPPING OUT OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE OTHER BEING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THAT SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS AWFUL FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY A PIECE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO BREAK
OFF AND INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. AS SUCH...MODEL
CONSENSUS (GFS/NAM) IS FOR UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CONFLUENT FLOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UNDERNEATH TO WIN OUT OVER MUCH OF GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AS EVEN 12Z CANADIAN HAS ABANDONED SHIP
FROM ITS 00Z RUN. STILL...UNTIL THE WAVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
FULLY COMES ONSHORE AND MAGNITUDE IS RESOLVED...WILL NOT RULE OUT
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ALL TOGETHER FOR SUNDAY JUST YET...SEE 12Z
EURO/NAVGEM...BUT CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY HIGHEST TOWARD THE OHIO
BORDER WHERE WILL CARRY A 50 POP. A NORTHEAST COMPONENT OFF LAKE
HURON MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL DRY AIRMASS (SURFACE DEW PTS OF -20 TO -30 F
NEAR GEORGIAN BAY) AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE TOUGH TO
OVERCOME.

THE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THINGS
SETTLE DOWN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER LOOKING
AT TEMPS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.  THE
NEXT ACTIVE PERIOD RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER MOVES IN.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
QUICK RAMP UP TO NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
AIRTIC AIRMASS STREAMS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GALES
FOR MAJORITY OF LAKE HURON WITH LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING ENHANCING THE
FLOW...ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST-NORTH INCREASING THE
FETCH. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE
ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL THEN SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
     441-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441>443-
     462>464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
UPDATE.......KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 300325
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1025 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

MULTI-BAND N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING...AND ARE IMPACTING MUCH OF OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING.
BANDS HAVE BEEN DRIVEN FURTHER INLAND THANKS TO N/NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 TO 35 KTS. SNOWFALL INTENSITY HAS NOT BEEN EXCESSIVELY
HEAVY...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE CERTAINLY CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING REDUCING VSBYS TO AROUND 1SM AT TIMES WITHIN THE HEAVIER
BANDS. WILL KEEP ALL ADVISORIES IN TACT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
DUE MAINLY TO THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. STILL EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED PLACES IN FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN SEEING UP TO 4 INCHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

DEVELOPING N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
TVC AND MBL THRU FRIDAY...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL BE MVFR
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT ACROSS
FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/APN) ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
20 KTS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300218
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
918 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT TAKING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR FRIDAY LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER NRN WISCONSIN HAS
CAUSED A FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS
EVENING. VSBYS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR A MILE AT SOME LOCATIONS AS
SNOW BANDS MOVE SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. SHSN SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME AFTER 06Z AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST. UPDATED GRIDS OVER THE
WESTERN CWA TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACCOMPANYING THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE
FCST TO INCLUDE THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING...
MAINLY FROM GRR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED GIVEN
VERY LIGHT/PATCHY NATURE OF THE DRIZZLE AND THAT ROADS WERE
ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY TREATED FROM EARLIER EVENT.

THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PROBLEMS
KEEPING A SATURATED DGZ IN THE CLOUD LAYER...THUS THE PATCHY
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REINTRODUCES
A SATURATED DGZ AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT PER BUFKIT
OVERVIEWS... IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH WHETHER TO EXTEND
THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CLIMBING AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING.  THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING.  COLDER CLOUD TOPS
WERE PUSHING EAST OF LANSING SUPPORTING NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM  WHAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SNOW...EXCEPT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN AROUND INTERSTATE 94.  THERE
ENOUGH WARMTH IN THE LOW LEVELS EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR MELTING. ALSO
SPEEDS ON THE HIGHWAY ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL...SUGGESTING THE IMPACT
HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE EARLIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. AS A RESULT
OF ALL THIS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED SLIGHTLY
EARLY.

NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND THAT COULD WILL
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS SETUP
LOOKS WEAK. THE DGZ IS SHOWN TO BE MOIST...BUT SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS LOW. I
WILL FEATURE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST LIMITED CLOUDS TO
START THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AS A WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THE TIMING OF
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE FOR SNOW
EXISTS. IF THIS MOISTURE BECOMES ALIGNED...A BETTER SHOT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD EXIST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME OMEGA SHOWN
IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY WHILE THE DGZ IS UNSATURATED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK WITH LATER
FORECASTS.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE STORM ON SUNDAY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF SNOW
AS IT LOOKS TO JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS AND CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE MONDAY MORNING.

SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INLAND BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5 KFT WILL
LIMIT ACCUMS.

A CLIPPER ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES IN THE AREA OF BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VERY COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMS INTO THURSDAY WHEN SFC RIDGING LOWERS
INVERSION HEIGHTS BLO 3 KFT. THURSDAY IS ALSO PROGGED TO HAVE THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO MINUS 25C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT WILL PREVAIL THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES AND PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANY VSBYS RESTRICTIONS FROM THIS LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD
ONLY BE 3-5SM FOR BRIEF TIMES. AN ICING THREAT STILL EXIST THIS
EVENING FROM THE SFC TO 7000 FT... AND THAT WILL END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... WITH THE PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF MKG WHERE
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL OCCUR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE... BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 300218
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
918 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT TAKING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR FRIDAY LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER NRN WISCONSIN HAS
CAUSED A FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS
EVENING. VSBYS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR A MILE AT SOME LOCATIONS AS
SNOW BANDS MOVE SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. SHSN SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME AFTER 06Z AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST. UPDATED GRIDS OVER THE
WESTERN CWA TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACCOMPANYING THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE
FCST TO INCLUDE THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING...
MAINLY FROM GRR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED GIVEN
VERY LIGHT/PATCHY NATURE OF THE DRIZZLE AND THAT ROADS WERE
ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY TREATED FROM EARLIER EVENT.

THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PROBLEMS
KEEPING A SATURATED DGZ IN THE CLOUD LAYER...THUS THE PATCHY
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REINTRODUCES
A SATURATED DGZ AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT PER BUFKIT
OVERVIEWS... IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH WHETHER TO EXTEND
THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CLIMBING AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING.  THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING.  COLDER CLOUD TOPS
WERE PUSHING EAST OF LANSING SUPPORTING NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM  WHAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SNOW...EXCEPT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN AROUND INTERSTATE 94.  THERE
ENOUGH WARMTH IN THE LOW LEVELS EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR MELTING. ALSO
SPEEDS ON THE HIGHWAY ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL...SUGGESTING THE IMPACT
HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE EARLIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. AS A RESULT
OF ALL THIS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED SLIGHTLY
EARLY.

NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND THAT COULD WILL
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS SETUP
LOOKS WEAK. THE DGZ IS SHOWN TO BE MOIST...BUT SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS LOW. I
WILL FEATURE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST LIMITED CLOUDS TO
START THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AS A WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THE TIMING OF
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE FOR SNOW
EXISTS. IF THIS MOISTURE BECOMES ALIGNED...A BETTER SHOT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD EXIST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME OMEGA SHOWN
IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY WHILE THE DGZ IS UNSATURATED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK WITH LATER
FORECASTS.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE STORM ON SUNDAY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF SNOW
AS IT LOOKS TO JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS AND CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE MONDAY MORNING.

SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INLAND BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5 KFT WILL
LIMIT ACCUMS.

A CLIPPER ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES IN THE AREA OF BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VERY COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMS INTO THURSDAY WHEN SFC RIDGING LOWERS
INVERSION HEIGHTS BLO 3 KFT. THURSDAY IS ALSO PROGGED TO HAVE THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO MINUS 25C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT WILL PREVAIL THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES AND PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANY VSBYS RESTRICTIONS FROM THIS LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD
ONLY BE 3-5SM FOR BRIEF TIMES. AN ICING THREAT STILL EXIST THIS
EVENING FROM THE SFC TO 7000 FT... AND THAT WILL END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... WITH THE PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF MKG WHERE
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL OCCUR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE... BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM






000
FXUS63 KDTX 300106
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
806 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT
AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING CAME IN AT
ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM DETROIT NORTHWARD. WHILE THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT AN END TO THE SNOW...IT HAS BROUGHT A MARKED INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING LATER
TONIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AND WIND WILL SEND WIND CHILLS DOWN BELOW ZERO
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SNOWFALL HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL SITES THIS
EVENING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. SHALLOW COLD
AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SUSTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...MARKED BY A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL CAUSE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE WINDS /POSSIBLY GUSTING UP
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES/. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS TEH WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL CLEAR OUT THE CEILINGS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.

FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR IN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 254 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ADVANCING ACROSS SE MI OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE NOW OVER OHIO AND BRIEF MID LEVEL
FGEN PRECEDING A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW WORKING INTO LAKE MI HAVE BEEN
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS DRIVING THIS PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COOLING TO SUPPORT A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW IN MOST LOCALS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
AND WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...HOLDING AMPLE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION. A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN
TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS SE MI DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT...LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S EARLY THIS EVENING. 925MB TEMPS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO PLUNGE TO -18C BY DAYBREAK FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE SFC TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOW TEENS/UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE AREA VIA STRONG
W-NW WINDS. WHILE THE SFC ISSALOBARIC COMPONENT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK...A PUSH OF GOOD SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC DESCENT TRAILING
THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SFC. RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS TOPPING 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL IN
TURN BE DRIVEN DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB ZERO READINGS BY
EARLY FRI MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE THIS EVENING
PRECEDING THE MID LEVEL WAVE...THE LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. LAKE CONTRIBUTION INTO SE
MI WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY THE MEAN NW WIND TRAJECTORIES. THUS JUST
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE /MAINLY ALONG THE
LEAD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT/.

LONG TERM...

HEALTHY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE UPPER
TEENS. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE EXHAUSTED DURING THE
DAY...AS FLOW WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE BETWEEN 1000-2000 FOOT
LAYER...ENOUGH FOR MENTION OF A FLURRY OR TWO.
HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH...UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY LAKE
FEED (EXCEPT FOR EASTERN THUMB SHORELINE WHERE MAIN LAKE BAND WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED)...WITH DOWN SLOPING COMPONENT INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WILL THUS ALLOW FOR GOOD SHARE OF
SUNSHINE...ALLOWING MAXES TO REACH INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES...WHICH IS STILL OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SEVERAL KEY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
THE FIRST ONE BEING THE INTENSE CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT...AND THUS BECOMES MERGED
WITH NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY. THE FAILURE OF THIS SYSTEM TO CLEAR EASTERN CANADA IN
TIMELY MANNER LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SUPPRESSING/DELAYING THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT SYSTEM IS RELYING ON
THE INTERACTION OF AT LEAST TWO UPPER WAVES...ONE ZIPPING OUT OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE OTHER BEING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THAT SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS AWFUL FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY A PIECE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO BREAK
OFF AND INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. AS SUCH...MODEL
CONSENSUS (GFS/NAM) IS FOR UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CONFLUENT FLOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UNDERNEATH TO WIN OUT OVER MUCH OF GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AS EVEN 12Z CANADIAN HAS ABANDONED SHIP
FROM ITS 00Z RUN. STILL...UNTIL THE WAVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
FULLY COMES ONSHORE AND MAGNITUDE IS RESOLVED...WILL NOT RULE OUT
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ALL TOGETHER FOR SUNDAY JUST YET...SEE 12Z
EURO/NAVGEM...BUT CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY HIGHEST TOWARD THE OHIO
BORDER WHERE WILL CARRY A 50 POP. A NORTHEAST COMPONENT OFF LAKE
HURON MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL DRY AIRMASS (SURFACE DEW PTS OF -20 TO -30 F
NEAR GEORGIAN BAY) AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE TOUGH TO
OVERCOME.

THE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THINGS
SETTLE DOWN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER LOOKING
AT TEMPS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.  THE
NEXT ACTIVE PERIOD RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER MOVES IN.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
QUICK RAMP UP TO NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
AIRTIC AIRMASS STREAMS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GALES
FOR MAJORITY OF LAKE HURON WITH LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING ENHANCING THE
FLOW...ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST-NORTH INCREASING THE
FETCH. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE
ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL THEN SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
     441-462.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ463-464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 300106
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
806 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT
AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING CAME IN AT
ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM DETROIT NORTHWARD. WHILE THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT AN END TO THE SNOW...IT HAS BROUGHT A MARKED INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING LATER
TONIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AND WIND WILL SEND WIND CHILLS DOWN BELOW ZERO
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SNOWFALL HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL SITES THIS
EVENING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. SHALLOW COLD
AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SUSTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...MARKED BY A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL CAUSE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE WINDS /POSSIBLY GUSTING UP
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES/. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS TEH WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL CLEAR OUT THE CEILINGS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.

FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR IN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 254 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ADVANCING ACROSS SE MI OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE NOW OVER OHIO AND BRIEF MID LEVEL
FGEN PRECEDING A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW WORKING INTO LAKE MI HAVE BEEN
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS DRIVING THIS PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COOLING TO SUPPORT A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW IN MOST LOCALS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
AND WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...HOLDING AMPLE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION. A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN
TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS SE MI DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT...LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S EARLY THIS EVENING. 925MB TEMPS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO PLUNGE TO -18C BY DAYBREAK FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE SFC TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOW TEENS/UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE AREA VIA STRONG
W-NW WINDS. WHILE THE SFC ISSALOBARIC COMPONENT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK...A PUSH OF GOOD SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC DESCENT TRAILING
THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SFC. RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS TOPPING 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL IN
TURN BE DRIVEN DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB ZERO READINGS BY
EARLY FRI MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE THIS EVENING
PRECEDING THE MID LEVEL WAVE...THE LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. LAKE CONTRIBUTION INTO SE
MI WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY THE MEAN NW WIND TRAJECTORIES. THUS JUST
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE /MAINLY ALONG THE
LEAD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT/.

LONG TERM...

HEALTHY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE UPPER
TEENS. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE EXHAUSTED DURING THE
DAY...AS FLOW WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE BETWEEN 1000-2000 FOOT
LAYER...ENOUGH FOR MENTION OF A FLURRY OR TWO.
HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH...UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY LAKE
FEED (EXCEPT FOR EASTERN THUMB SHORELINE WHERE MAIN LAKE BAND WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED)...WITH DOWN SLOPING COMPONENT INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WILL THUS ALLOW FOR GOOD SHARE OF
SUNSHINE...ALLOWING MAXES TO REACH INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES...WHICH IS STILL OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SEVERAL KEY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
THE FIRST ONE BEING THE INTENSE CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT...AND THUS BECOMES MERGED
WITH NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY. THE FAILURE OF THIS SYSTEM TO CLEAR EASTERN CANADA IN
TIMELY MANNER LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SUPPRESSING/DELAYING THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT SYSTEM IS RELYING ON
THE INTERACTION OF AT LEAST TWO UPPER WAVES...ONE ZIPPING OUT OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE OTHER BEING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THAT SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS AWFUL FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY A PIECE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO BREAK
OFF AND INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. AS SUCH...MODEL
CONSENSUS (GFS/NAM) IS FOR UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CONFLUENT FLOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UNDERNEATH TO WIN OUT OVER MUCH OF GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AS EVEN 12Z CANADIAN HAS ABANDONED SHIP
FROM ITS 00Z RUN. STILL...UNTIL THE WAVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
FULLY COMES ONSHORE AND MAGNITUDE IS RESOLVED...WILL NOT RULE OUT
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ALL TOGETHER FOR SUNDAY JUST YET...SEE 12Z
EURO/NAVGEM...BUT CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY HIGHEST TOWARD THE OHIO
BORDER WHERE WILL CARRY A 50 POP. A NORTHEAST COMPONENT OFF LAKE
HURON MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL DRY AIRMASS (SURFACE DEW PTS OF -20 TO -30 F
NEAR GEORGIAN BAY) AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE TOUGH TO
OVERCOME.

THE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THINGS
SETTLE DOWN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER LOOKING
AT TEMPS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.  THE
NEXT ACTIVE PERIOD RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER MOVES IN.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
QUICK RAMP UP TO NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
AIRTIC AIRMASS STREAMS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GALES
FOR MAJORITY OF LAKE HURON WITH LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING ENHANCING THE
FLOW...ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST-NORTH INCREASING THE
FETCH. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE
ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL THEN SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
     441-462.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ463-464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300010
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
710 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT TAKING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR FRIDAY LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACCOMPANYING THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE
FCST TO INCLUDE THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING...
MAINLY FROM GRR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED GIVEN
VERY LIGHT/PATCHY NATURE OF THE DRIZZLE AND THAT ROADS WERE
ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY TREATED FROM EARLIER EVENT.

THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PROBLEMS
KEEPING A SATURATED DGZ IN THE CLOUD LAYER...THUS THE PATCHY
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REINTRODUCES
A SATURATED DGZ AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT PER BUFKIT
OVERVIEWS... IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH WHETHER TO EXTEND
THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CLIMBING AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING.  THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING.  COLDER CLOUD TOPS
WERE PUSHING EAST OF LANSING SUPPORTING NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM  WHAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SNOW...EXCEPT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN AROUND INTERSTATE 94.  THERE
ENOUGH WARMTH IN THE LOW LEVELS EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR MELTING. ALSO
SPEEDS ON THE HIGHWAY ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL...SUGGESTING THE IMPACT
HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE EARLIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. AS A RESULT
OF ALL THIS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED SLIGHTLY
EARLY.

NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND THAT COULD WILL
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS SETUP
LOOKS WEAK. THE DGZ IS SHOWN TO BE MOIST...BUT SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS LOW. I
WILL FEATURE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST LIMITED CLOUDS TO
START THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AS A WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THE TIMING OF
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE FOR SNOW
EXISTS. IF THIS MOISTURE BECOMES ALIGNED...A BETTER SHOT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD EXIST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME OMEGA SHOWN
IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY WHILE THE DGZ IS UNSATURATED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK WITH LATER
FORECASTS.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE STORM ON SUNDAY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF SNOW
AS IT LOOKS TO JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS AND CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE MONDAY MORNING.

SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INLAND BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5 KFT WILL
LIMIT ACCUMS.

A CLIPPER ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES IN THE AREA OF BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VERY COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMS INTO THURSDAY WHEN SFC RIDGING LOWERS
INVERSION HEIGHTS BLO 3 KFT. THURSDAY IS ALSO PROGGED TO HAVE THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO MINUS 25C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT WILL PREVAIL THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES AND PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANY VSBYS RESTRICTIONS FROM THIS LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD
ONLY BE 3-5SM FOR BRIEF TIMES. AN ICING THREAT STILL EXIST THIS
EVENING FROM THE SFC TO 7000 FT... AND THAT WILL END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... WITH THE PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF MKG WHERE
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL OCCUR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE... BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 300010
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
710 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT TAKING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR FRIDAY LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACCOMPANYING THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE
FCST TO INCLUDE THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING...
MAINLY FROM GRR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED GIVEN
VERY LIGHT/PATCHY NATURE OF THE DRIZZLE AND THAT ROADS WERE
ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY TREATED FROM EARLIER EVENT.

THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PROBLEMS
KEEPING A SATURATED DGZ IN THE CLOUD LAYER...THUS THE PATCHY
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REINTRODUCES
A SATURATED DGZ AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT PER BUFKIT
OVERVIEWS... IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH WHETHER TO EXTEND
THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CLIMBING AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING.  THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING.  COLDER CLOUD TOPS
WERE PUSHING EAST OF LANSING SUPPORTING NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM  WHAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SNOW...EXCEPT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN AROUND INTERSTATE 94.  THERE
ENOUGH WARMTH IN THE LOW LEVELS EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR MELTING. ALSO
SPEEDS ON THE HIGHWAY ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL...SUGGESTING THE IMPACT
HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE EARLIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. AS A RESULT
OF ALL THIS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED SLIGHTLY
EARLY.

NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND THAT COULD WILL
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS SETUP
LOOKS WEAK. THE DGZ IS SHOWN TO BE MOIST...BUT SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS LOW. I
WILL FEATURE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST LIMITED CLOUDS TO
START THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AS A WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THE TIMING OF
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE FOR SNOW
EXISTS. IF THIS MOISTURE BECOMES ALIGNED...A BETTER SHOT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD EXIST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME OMEGA SHOWN
IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY WHILE THE DGZ IS UNSATURATED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK WITH LATER
FORECASTS.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE STORM ON SUNDAY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF SNOW
AS IT LOOKS TO JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS AND CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE MONDAY MORNING.

SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INLAND BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5 KFT WILL
LIMIT ACCUMS.

A CLIPPER ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES IN THE AREA OF BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VERY COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMS INTO THURSDAY WHEN SFC RIDGING LOWERS
INVERSION HEIGHTS BLO 3 KFT. THURSDAY IS ALSO PROGGED TO HAVE THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO MINUS 25C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT WILL PREVAIL THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES AND PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANY VSBYS RESTRICTIONS FROM THIS LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD
ONLY BE 3-5SM FOR BRIEF TIMES. AN ICING THREAT STILL EXIST THIS
EVENING FROM THE SFC TO 7000 FT... AND THAT WILL END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... WITH THE PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF MKG WHERE
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL OCCUR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE... BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 292318
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

DEVELOPING N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
TVC AND MBL THRU FRIDAY...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL BE MVFR
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT ACROSS
FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/APN) ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
20 KTS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 292318
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

DEVELOPING N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
TVC AND MBL THRU FRIDAY...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL BE MVFR
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT ACROSS
FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/APN) ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
20 KTS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 292318
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

DEVELOPING N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
TVC AND MBL THRU FRIDAY...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL BE MVFR
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT ACROSS
FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/APN) ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
20 KTS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 292318
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

DEVELOPING N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
TVC AND MBL THRU FRIDAY...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL BE MVFR
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT ACROSS
FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/APN) ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
20 KTS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KDTX 292318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

SNOWFALL HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL SITES THIS
EVENING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. SHALLOW COLD
AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SUSTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...MARKED BY A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL CAUSE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE WINDS /POSSIBLY GUSTING UP
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES/. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS TEH WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL CLEAR OUT THE CEILINGS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.

FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR IN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 254 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ADVANCING ACROSS SE MI OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE NOW OVER OHIO AND BRIEF MID LEVEL
FGEN PRECEDING A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW WORKING INTO LAKE MI HAVE BEEN
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS DRIVING THIS PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COOLING TO SUPPORT A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW IN MOST LOCALS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
AND WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...HOLDING AMPLE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION. A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN
TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS SE MI DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT...LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S EARLY THIS EVENING. 925MB TEMPS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO PLUNGE TO -18C BY DAYBREAK FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE SFC TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOW TEENS/UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE AREA VIA STRONG
W-NW WINDS. WHILE THE SFC ISSALOBARIC COMPONENT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK...A PUSH OF GOOD SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC DESCENT TRAILING
THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SFC. RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS TOPPING 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL IN
TURN BE DRIVEN DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB ZERO READINGS BY
EARLY FRI MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE THIS EVENING
PRECEDING THE MID LEVEL WAVE...THE LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. LAKE CONTRIBUTION INTO SE
MI WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY THE MEAN NW WIND TRAJECTORIES. THUS JUST
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE /MAINLY ALONG THE
LEAD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT/.

LONG TERM...

HEALTHY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE UPPER
TEENS. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE EXHAUSTED DURING THE
DAY...AS FLOW WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE BETWEEN 1000-2000 FOOT
LAYER...ENOUGH FOR MENTION OF A FLURRY OR TWO.
HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH...UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY LAKE
FEED (EXCEPT FOR EASTERN THUMB SHORELINE WHERE MAIN LAKE BAND WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED)...WITH DOWN SLOPING COMPONENT INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WILL THUS ALLOW FOR GOOD SHARE OF
SUNSHINE...ALLOWING MAXES TO REACH INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES...WHICH IS STILL OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SEVERAL KEY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
THE FIRST ONE BEING THE INTENSE CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT...AND THUS BECOMES MERGED
WITH NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY. THE FAILURE OF THIS SYSTEM TO CLEAR EASTERN CANADA IN
TIMELY MANNER LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SUPPRESSING/DELAYING THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT SYSTEM IS RELYING ON
THE INTERACTION OF AT LEAST TWO UPPER WAVES...ONE ZIPPING OUT OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE OTHER BEING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THAT SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS AWFUL FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY A PIECE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO BREAK
OFF AND INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. AS SUCH...MODEL
CONSENSUS (GFS/NAM) IS FOR UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CONFLUENT FLOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UNDERNEATH TO WIN OUT OVER MUCH OF GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AS EVEN 12Z CANADIAN HAS ABANDONED SHIP
FROM ITS 00Z RUN. STILL...UNTIL THE WAVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
FULLY COMES ONSHORE AND MAGNITUDE IS RESOLVED...WILL NOT RULE OUT
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ALL TOGETHER FOR SUNDAY JUST YET...SEE 12Z
EURO/NAVGEM...BUT CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY HIGHEST TOWARD THE OHIO
BORDER WHERE WILL CARRY A 50 POP. A NORTHEAST COMPONENT OFF LAKE
HURON MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL DRY AIRMASS (SURFACE DEW PTS OF -20 TO -30 F
NEAR GEORGIAN BAY) AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE TOUGH TO
OVERCOME.

THE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THINGS
SETTLE DOWN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER LOOKING
AT TEMPS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.  THE
NEXT ACTIVE PERIOD RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER MOVES IN.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
QUICK RAMP UP TO NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
AIRTIC AIRMASS STREAMS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GALES
FOR MAJORITY OF LAKE HURON WITH LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING ENHANCING THE
FLOW...ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST-NORTH INCREASING THE
FETCH. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE
ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL THEN SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
     441-462.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 292318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

SNOWFALL HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL SITES THIS
EVENING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. SHALLOW COLD
AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SUSTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...MARKED BY A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL CAUSE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE WINDS /POSSIBLY GUSTING UP
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES/. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS TEH WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL CLEAR OUT THE CEILINGS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.

FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR IN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 254 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ADVANCING ACROSS SE MI OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE NOW OVER OHIO AND BRIEF MID LEVEL
FGEN PRECEDING A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW WORKING INTO LAKE MI HAVE BEEN
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS DRIVING THIS PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COOLING TO SUPPORT A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW IN MOST LOCALS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
AND WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...HOLDING AMPLE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION. A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN
TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS SE MI DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT...LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S EARLY THIS EVENING. 925MB TEMPS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO PLUNGE TO -18C BY DAYBREAK FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE SFC TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOW TEENS/UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE AREA VIA STRONG
W-NW WINDS. WHILE THE SFC ISSALOBARIC COMPONENT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK...A PUSH OF GOOD SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC DESCENT TRAILING
THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SFC. RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS TOPPING 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL IN
TURN BE DRIVEN DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB ZERO READINGS BY
EARLY FRI MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE THIS EVENING
PRECEDING THE MID LEVEL WAVE...THE LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. LAKE CONTRIBUTION INTO SE
MI WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY THE MEAN NW WIND TRAJECTORIES. THUS JUST
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE /MAINLY ALONG THE
LEAD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT/.

LONG TERM...

HEALTHY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE UPPER
TEENS. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE EXHAUSTED DURING THE
DAY...AS FLOW WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE BETWEEN 1000-2000 FOOT
LAYER...ENOUGH FOR MENTION OF A FLURRY OR TWO.
HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH...UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY LAKE
FEED (EXCEPT FOR EASTERN THUMB SHORELINE WHERE MAIN LAKE BAND WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED)...WITH DOWN SLOPING COMPONENT INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WILL THUS ALLOW FOR GOOD SHARE OF
SUNSHINE...ALLOWING MAXES TO REACH INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES...WHICH IS STILL OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SEVERAL KEY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
THE FIRST ONE BEING THE INTENSE CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT...AND THUS BECOMES MERGED
WITH NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY. THE FAILURE OF THIS SYSTEM TO CLEAR EASTERN CANADA IN
TIMELY MANNER LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SUPPRESSING/DELAYING THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT SYSTEM IS RELYING ON
THE INTERACTION OF AT LEAST TWO UPPER WAVES...ONE ZIPPING OUT OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE OTHER BEING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THAT SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS AWFUL FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY A PIECE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO BREAK
OFF AND INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. AS SUCH...MODEL
CONSENSUS (GFS/NAM) IS FOR UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CONFLUENT FLOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UNDERNEATH TO WIN OUT OVER MUCH OF GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AS EVEN 12Z CANADIAN HAS ABANDONED SHIP
FROM ITS 00Z RUN. STILL...UNTIL THE WAVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
FULLY COMES ONSHORE AND MAGNITUDE IS RESOLVED...WILL NOT RULE OUT
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ALL TOGETHER FOR SUNDAY JUST YET...SEE 12Z
EURO/NAVGEM...BUT CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY HIGHEST TOWARD THE OHIO
BORDER WHERE WILL CARRY A 50 POP. A NORTHEAST COMPONENT OFF LAKE
HURON MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL DRY AIRMASS (SURFACE DEW PTS OF -20 TO -30 F
NEAR GEORGIAN BAY) AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE TOUGH TO
OVERCOME.

THE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THINGS
SETTLE DOWN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER LOOKING
AT TEMPS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.  THE
NEXT ACTIVE PERIOD RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER MOVES IN.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
QUICK RAMP UP TO NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
AIRTIC AIRMASS STREAMS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GALES
FOR MAJORITY OF LAKE HURON WITH LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING ENHANCING THE
FLOW...ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST-NORTH INCREASING THE
FETCH. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE
ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL THEN SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
     441-462.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 292248
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
548 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST AS THE FLOW OVER NAMERICA WILL FEATURE A W COAST RIDGE AND
CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH
TEMPS BLO TO AT TIMES MUCH BLO NORMAL...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS FOR PCPN...THIS IS A DRY PATTERN WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST DUE TO
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES.

BEGINNING FRI NIGHT/SAT...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRACK FROM NW MN IN THE EVENING TO NRN LWR MI BY SAT MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. UPPER MI WILL BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN
DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MODEST QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE SRN SHORTWAVE...ACCOMPANYING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
INFLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. STILL...WILL PROBABLY SEE AN AREA OF -SN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW GENERALLY
HIGHER END CHC POPS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES. SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS SAT MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE THE
TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -20 TO
-25C BY 00Z SUN...QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC
925MB NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING INVERSION TO 4KFT WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3
INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS...TEMPS WILL FALL THRU THE DAY AS
BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC
AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW. LOW INVERSION
AROUND 4KFT COMBINED WITH DGZ BEING MOSTLY ELIMINATED BY THE COLD
AIR MASS WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. ONLY
ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS
PRES GRADIENT/WIND SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN
UP OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE
SHORE BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E AS
CLOUDS/LES COULD SHIFT W IF WINDS BECOME EASTERLY DUE TO DRAINAGE
OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS
BACK DUE TO HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THE END OF THE AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING
THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA. IF THIS IS A TREND
THAT HOLDS UP...THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
LAKE ENANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WHATEVER HAPPENS...A SOLID SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WED INTO EARLY THU. WITH LOSS OF DGZ AND
LOW INVERSIONS SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT WED INTO THU. ALTHOUGH LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR WILL RESULT
IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY.
LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVE FM THE NORTHWEST. AT KSAW...WILL HAVE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING AND EXPECT DIMINISHING AND
ENDING TREND TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VSBY MAINLY MVFR AT
ALL THE SITES THOUGH MAY DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. BY
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 292203
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
503 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST AS THE FLOW OVER NAMERICA WILL FEATURE A W COAST RIDGE AND
CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH
TEMPS BLO TO AT TIMES MUCH BLO NORMAL...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS FOR PCPN...THIS IS A DRY PATTERN WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST DUE TO
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES.

BEGINNING FRI NIGHT/SAT...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRACK FROM NW MN IN THE EVENING TO NRN LWR MI BY SAT MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. UPPER MI WILL BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN
DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MODEST QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE SRN SHORTWAVE...ACCOMPANYING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
INFLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. STILL...WILL PROBABLY SEE AN AREA OF -SN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW GENERALLY
HIGHER END CHC POPS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES. SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS SAT MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE THE
TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -20 TO
-25C BY 00Z SUN...QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC
925MB NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING INVERSION TO 4KFT WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3
INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS...TEMPS WILL FALL THRU THE DAY AS
BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC
AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW. LOW INVERSION
AROUND 4KFT COMBINED WITH DGZ BEING MOSTLY ELIMINATED BY THE COLD
AIR MASS WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. ONLY
ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS
PRES GRADIENT/WIND SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN
UP OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE
SHORE BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E AS
CLOUDS/LES COULD SHIFT W IF WINDS BECOME EASTERLY DUE TO DRAINAGE
OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS
BACK DUE TO HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THE END OF THE AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING
THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA. IF THIS IS A TREND
THAT HOLDS UP...THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
LAKE ENANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WHATEVER HAPPENS...A SOLID SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WED INTO EARLY THU. WITH LOSS OF DGZ AND
LOW INVERSIONS SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT WED INTO THU. ALTHOUGH LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR WILL RESULT
IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY.
LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT IS EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS IN GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A
SWITCH BACK TO MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OFF AND ON
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX THIS AFTN WITH A WINDOW
FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AS LIFT INCREASES
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVE FM THE NORTHWEST. AT KSAW...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MIX OF
SNOW AND FZDZ THIS AFTN BEFORE COLDER AIR SWITCHES THE PRECIP TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DIMINISHING AND
ENDING TREND TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VSBY MAINLY MVFR AT
ALL THE SITES THOUGH MAY DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR OR VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA



000
FXUS63 KAPX 292114
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. SOME
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 292114
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. SOME
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 292114
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. SOME
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 292114
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. SOME
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR



000
FXUS63 KMQT 292103
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT IS EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS IN GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A
SWITCH BACK TO MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OFF AND ON
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX THIS AFTN WITH A WINDOW
FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AS LIFT INCREASES
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVE FM THE NORTHWEST. AT KSAW...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MIX OF
SNOW AND FZDZ THIS AFTN BEFORE COLDER AIR SWITCHES THE PRECIP TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DIMINISHING AND
ENDING TREND TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VSBY MAINLY MVFR AT
ALL THE SITES THOUGH MAY DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR OR VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA



000
FXUS63 KMQT 292103
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT IS EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS IN GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A
SWITCH BACK TO MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OFF AND ON
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX THIS AFTN WITH A WINDOW
FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AS LIFT INCREASES
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVE FM THE NORTHWEST. AT KSAW...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MIX OF
SNOW AND FZDZ THIS AFTN BEFORE COLDER AIR SWITCHES THE PRECIP TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DIMINISHING AND
ENDING TREND TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VSBY MAINLY MVFR AT
ALL THE SITES THOUGH MAY DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR OR VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA



000
FXUS63 KMQT 292103
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT IS EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS IN GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A
SWITCH BACK TO MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OFF AND ON
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX THIS AFTN WITH A WINDOW
FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AS LIFT INCREASES
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVE FM THE NORTHWEST. AT KSAW...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MIX OF
SNOW AND FZDZ THIS AFTN BEFORE COLDER AIR SWITCHES THE PRECIP TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DIMINISHING AND
ENDING TREND TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VSBY MAINLY MVFR AT
ALL THE SITES THOUGH MAY DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR OR VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA



000
FXUS63 KMQT 292103
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT IS EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS IN GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A
SWITCH BACK TO MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OFF AND ON
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX THIS AFTN WITH A WINDOW
FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AS LIFT INCREASES
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVE FM THE NORTHWEST. AT KSAW...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MIX OF
SNOW AND FZDZ THIS AFTN BEFORE COLDER AIR SWITCHES THE PRECIP TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DIMINISHING AND
ENDING TREND TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VSBY MAINLY MVFR AT
ALL THE SITES THOUGH MAY DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR OR VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA



000
FXUS63 KMQT 292031
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT IS EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS IN GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A
SWITCH BACK TO MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OFF AND ON
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX THIS AFTN WITH A WINDOW
FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AS LIFT INCREASES
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVE FM THE NORTHWEST. AT KSAW...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MIX OF
SNOW AND FZDZ THIS AFTN BEFORE COLDER AIR SWITCHES THE PRECIP TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DIMINISHING AND
ENDING TREND TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VSBY MAINLY MVFR AT
ALL THE SITES THOUGH MAY DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR OR VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ264>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KGRR 292027
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT TAKING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR FRIDAY LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH WHETHER TO EXTEND
THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CLIMBING AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING.  THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING.  COLDER CLOUD TOPS
WERE PUSHING EAST OF LANSING SUPPORTING NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM  WHAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SNOW...EXCEPT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN AROUND INTERSTATE 94.  THERE
ENOUGH WARMTH IN THE LOW LEVELS EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR MELTING. ALSO
SPEEDS ON THE HIGHWAY ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL...SUGGESTING THE IMPACT
HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE EARLIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. AS A RESULT
OF ALL THIS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED SLIGHTLY
EARLY.

NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND THAT COULD WILL
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS SETUP
LOOKS WEAK. THE DGZ IS SHOWN TO BE MOIST...BUT SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS LOW. I
WILL FEATURE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST LIMITED CLOUDS TO
START THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AS A WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THE TIMING OF
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE FOR SNOW
EXISTS. IF THIS MOISTURE BECOMES ALIGNED...A BETTER SHOT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD EXIST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME OMEGA SHOWN
IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY WHILE THE DGZ IS UNSATURATED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK WITH LATER
FORECASTS.





.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE STORM ON SUNDAY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF SNOW
AS IT LOOKS TO JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS AND CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE MONDAY MORNING.

SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INLAND BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5 KFT WILL
LIMIT ACCUMS.

A CLIPPER ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES IN THE AREA OF BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VERY COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMS INTO THURSDAY WHEN SFC RIDGING LOWERS
INVERSION HEIGHTS BLO 3 KFT. THURSDAY IS ALSO PROGGED TO HAVE THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO MINUS 25C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ENDING
BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES AROUND 2500 FEET
AGL PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM







000
FXUS63 KDTX 291954
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
254 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ADVANCING ACROSS SE MI OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE NOW OVER OHIO AND BRIEF MID LEVEL
FGEN PRECEDING A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW WORKING INTO LAKE MI HAVE BEEN
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS DRIVING THIS PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COOLING TO SUPPORT A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW IN MOST LOCALS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
AND WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...HOLDING AMPLE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION. A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN
TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS SE MI DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT...LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S EARLY THIS EVENING. 925MB TEMPS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO PLUNGE TO -18C BY DAYBREAK FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE SFC TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOW TEENS/UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE AREA VIA STRONG
W-NW WINDS. WHILE THE SFC ISSALOBARIC COMPONENT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK...A PUSH OF GOOD SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC DESCENT TRAILING
THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SFC. RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS TOPPING 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL IN
TURN BE DRIVEN DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB ZERO READINGS BY
EARLY FRI MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE THIS EVENING
PRECEDING THE MID LEVEL WAVE...THE LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. LAKE CONTRIBUTION INTO SE
MI WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY THE MEAN NW WIND TRAJECTORIES. THUS JUST
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE /MAINLY ALONG THE
LEAD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT/.

&&

.LONG TERM...

HEALTHY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE UPPER
TEENS. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE EXHAUSTED DURING THE
DAY...AS FLOW WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE BETWEEN 1000-2000 FOOT
LAYER...ENOUGH FOR MENTION OF A FLURRY OR TWO.
HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH...UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY LAKE
FEED (EXCEPT FOR EASTERN THUMB SHORELINE WHERE MAIN LAKE BAND WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED)...WITH DOWN SLOPING COMPONENT INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WILL THUS ALLOW FOR GOOD SHARE OF
SUNSHINE...ALLOWING MAXES TO REACH INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES...WHICH IS STILL OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SEVERAL KEY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
THE FIRST ONE BEING THE INTENSE CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT...AND THUS BECOMES MERGED
WITH NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY. THE FAILURE OF THIS SYSTEM TO CLEAR EASTERN CANADA IN
TIMELY MANNER LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SUPPRESSING/DELAYING THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT SYSTEM IS RELYING ON
THE INTERACTION OF AT LEAST TWO UPPER WAVES...ONE ZIPPING OUT OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE OTHER BEING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THAT SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS AWFUL FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY A PIECE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO BREAK
OFF AND INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. AS SUCH...MODEL
CONSENSUS (GFS/NAM) IS FOR UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CONFLUENT FLOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UNDERNEATH TO WIN OUT OVER MUCH OF GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AS EVEN 12Z CANADIAN HAS ABANDONED SHIP
FROM ITS 00Z RUN. STILL...UNTIL THE WAVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
FULLY COMES ONSHORE AND MAGNITUDE IS RESOLVED...WILL NOT RULE OUT
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ALL TOGETHER FOR SUNDAY JUST YET...SEE 12Z
EURO/NAVGEM...BUT CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY HIGHEST TOWARD THE OHIO
BORDER WHERE WILL CARRY A 50 POP. A NORTHEAST COMPONENT OFF LAKE
HURON MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL DRY AIRMASS (SURFACE DEW PTS OF -20 TO -30 F
NEAR GEORGIAN BAY) AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE TOUGH TO
OVERCOME.

THE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THINGS
SETTLE DOWN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER LOOKING
AT TEMPS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.  THE
NEXT ACTIVE PERIOD RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER MOVES IN.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
QUICK RAMP UP TO NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
AIRTIC AIRMASS STREAMS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GALES
FOR MAJORITY OF LAKE HURON WITH LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING ENHANCING THE
FLOW...ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST-NORTH INCREASING THE
FETCH. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE
ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL THEN SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1203 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE REGION OF PRECIP NOW MOVING ACROSS SW MI WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW
FROM PTK NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTH. THERE IS A DEFINITE BACK EDGE TO
THIS PRECIP /MARKED BY THE END OF LARGER SCALE FORCING/. THIS BACK
EDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MI BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. THE ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL PASS EAST OF METRO DETROIT AFTER 19Z CAUSING A VEERING OF
THE WIND TOWARD THE W-NW WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.
SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...MARKED BY A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL CAUSE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE WINDS /POSSIBLY GUSTING UP
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES/.

FOR DTW...ENOUGH WARM AIR IS IN PLACE OVER METRO DETROIT TO SUPPORT
RAIN MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AS THIS SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP ARRIVES
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION BEING MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 291954
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
254 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ADVANCING ACROSS SE MI OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE NOW OVER OHIO AND BRIEF MID LEVEL
FGEN PRECEDING A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW WORKING INTO LAKE MI HAVE BEEN
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS DRIVING THIS PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COOLING TO SUPPORT A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW IN MOST LOCALS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
AND WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...HOLDING AMPLE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION. A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN
TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS SE MI DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT...LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S EARLY THIS EVENING. 925MB TEMPS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO PLUNGE TO -18C BY DAYBREAK FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE SFC TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOW TEENS/UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE AREA VIA STRONG
W-NW WINDS. WHILE THE SFC ISSALOBARIC COMPONENT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK...A PUSH OF GOOD SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC DESCENT TRAILING
THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SFC. RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS TOPPING 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL IN
TURN BE DRIVEN DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB ZERO READINGS BY
EARLY FRI MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE THIS EVENING
PRECEDING THE MID LEVEL WAVE...THE LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. LAKE CONTRIBUTION INTO SE
MI WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY THE MEAN NW WIND TRAJECTORIES. THUS JUST
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE /MAINLY ALONG THE
LEAD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT/.

&&

.LONG TERM...

HEALTHY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE UPPER
TEENS. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE EXHAUSTED DURING THE
DAY...AS FLOW WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE BETWEEN 1000-2000 FOOT
LAYER...ENOUGH FOR MENTION OF A FLURRY OR TWO.
HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH...UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY LAKE
FEED (EXCEPT FOR EASTERN THUMB SHORELINE WHERE MAIN LAKE BAND WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED)...WITH DOWN SLOPING COMPONENT INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WILL THUS ALLOW FOR GOOD SHARE OF
SUNSHINE...ALLOWING MAXES TO REACH INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES...WHICH IS STILL OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SEVERAL KEY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
THE FIRST ONE BEING THE INTENSE CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT...AND THUS BECOMES MERGED
WITH NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY. THE FAILURE OF THIS SYSTEM TO CLEAR EASTERN CANADA IN
TIMELY MANNER LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SUPPRESSING/DELAYING THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT SYSTEM IS RELYING ON
THE INTERACTION OF AT LEAST TWO UPPER WAVES...ONE ZIPPING OUT OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE OTHER BEING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THAT SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS AWFUL FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY A PIECE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO BREAK
OFF AND INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. AS SUCH...MODEL
CONSENSUS (GFS/NAM) IS FOR UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CONFLUENT FLOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UNDERNEATH TO WIN OUT OVER MUCH OF GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AS EVEN 12Z CANADIAN HAS ABANDONED SHIP
FROM ITS 00Z RUN. STILL...UNTIL THE WAVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
FULLY COMES ONSHORE AND MAGNITUDE IS RESOLVED...WILL NOT RULE OUT
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ALL TOGETHER FOR SUNDAY JUST YET...SEE 12Z
EURO/NAVGEM...BUT CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY HIGHEST TOWARD THE OHIO
BORDER WHERE WILL CARRY A 50 POP. A NORTHEAST COMPONENT OFF LAKE
HURON MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL DRY AIRMASS (SURFACE DEW PTS OF -20 TO -30 F
NEAR GEORGIAN BAY) AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE TOUGH TO
OVERCOME.

THE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THINGS
SETTLE DOWN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER LOOKING
AT TEMPS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.  THE
NEXT ACTIVE PERIOD RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER MOVES IN.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
QUICK RAMP UP TO NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
AIRTIC AIRMASS STREAMS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GALES
FOR MAJORITY OF LAKE HURON WITH LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING ENHANCING THE
FLOW...ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST-NORTH INCREASING THE
FETCH. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE
ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL THEN SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1203 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THE REGION OF PRECIP NOW MOVING ACROSS SW MI WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW
FROM PTK NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTH. THERE IS A DEFINITE BACK EDGE TO
THIS PRECIP /MARKED BY THE END OF LARGER SCALE FORCING/. THIS BACK
EDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MI BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. THE ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL PASS EAST OF METRO DETROIT AFTER 19Z CAUSING A VEERING OF
THE WIND TOWARD THE W-NW WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.
SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...MARKED BY A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL CAUSE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE WINDS /POSSIBLY GUSTING UP
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES/.

FOR DTW...ENOUGH WARM AIR IS IN PLACE OVER METRO DETROIT TO SUPPORT
RAIN MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AS THIS SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP ARRIVES
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION BEING MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291821
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
121 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN EVEN FOR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. REED CITY CAME IN WITH FREEZING RAIN RECENTLY
AS THE DGZ BECAME UNSATURATED. OVERALL PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES INCLUDING BIG RAPIDS AND HARRISON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ENDING
BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES AROUND 2500 FEET
AGL PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 291821
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
121 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN EVEN FOR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. REED CITY CAME IN WITH FREEZING RAIN RECENTLY
AS THE DGZ BECAME UNSATURATED. OVERALL PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES INCLUDING BIG RAPIDS AND HARRISON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ENDING
BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES AROUND 2500 FEET
AGL PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 291800
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED 1006MB LOW ALONG THE MICHIGAN/
INDIANA BORDER...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH UP THE LONG
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL IOWA RESPECTIVELY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
INDIANA AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH HELPING DRIVE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AROUND 700MB HELPING FOCUS AN
EARLIER SNOW BURST OVER NORTHERN LOWER (GETTING REPORTS OF 4-6+
INCHES LOCALLY).  A SECOND NARROW BAND OF SNOW LIES RIGHT ALONG/
AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.  SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL ZONE.

BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 21Z.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIN UP SOME LAKE CONVECTION
IN NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH PRIOR TO THAT MOIST LOW
LAYERS AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MARGINAL
CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WILL LET ADVISORY DROP OFF WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONGIHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. SOME
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 291800
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED 1006MB LOW ALONG THE MICHIGAN/
INDIANA BORDER...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH UP THE LONG
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL IOWA RESPECTIVELY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
INDIANA AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH HELPING DRIVE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AROUND 700MB HELPING FOCUS AN
EARLIER SNOW BURST OVER NORTHERN LOWER (GETTING REPORTS OF 4-6+
INCHES LOCALLY).  A SECOND NARROW BAND OF SNOW LIES RIGHT ALONG/
AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.  SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL ZONE.

BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 21Z.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIN UP SOME LAKE CONVECTION
IN NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH PRIOR TO THAT MOIST LOW
LAYERS AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MARGINAL
CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WILL LET ADVISORY DROP OFF WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONGIHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. SOME
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 291800
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED 1006MB LOW ALONG THE MICHIGAN/
INDIANA BORDER...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH UP THE LONG
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL IOWA RESPECTIVELY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
INDIANA AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH HELPING DRIVE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AROUND 700MB HELPING FOCUS AN
EARLIER SNOW BURST OVER NORTHERN LOWER (GETTING REPORTS OF 4-6+
INCHES LOCALLY).  A SECOND NARROW BAND OF SNOW LIES RIGHT ALONG/
AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.  SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL ZONE.

BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 21Z.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIN UP SOME LAKE CONVECTION
IN NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH PRIOR TO THAT MOIST LOW
LAYERS AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MARGINAL
CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WILL LET ADVISORY DROP OFF WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONGIHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. SOME
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 291800
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED 1006MB LOW ALONG THE MICHIGAN/
INDIANA BORDER...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH UP THE LONG
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL IOWA RESPECTIVELY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
INDIANA AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH HELPING DRIVE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AROUND 700MB HELPING FOCUS AN
EARLIER SNOW BURST OVER NORTHERN LOWER (GETTING REPORTS OF 4-6+
INCHES LOCALLY).  A SECOND NARROW BAND OF SNOW LIES RIGHT ALONG/
AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.  SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL ZONE.

BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 21Z.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIN UP SOME LAKE CONVECTION
IN NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH PRIOR TO THAT MOIST LOW
LAYERS AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MARGINAL
CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WILL LET ADVISORY DROP OFF WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONGIHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. SOME
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KMQT 291759
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WV AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW IT WELL...THE DEEP MOISTURE SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI IS QUICKLY EXITING E. THE SFC TROUGH SET UP
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING WILL EDGE TO THE E HALF
OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO NOTICE SOME OF THOSE STRONGER N-NNW WINDS BEGIN /WINDS CURRENTLY
AROUND 12KTS AT CMX WILL BEGIN TO GUSTS 25-30KTS/.

-FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED OFF AND ON THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN BULK OF
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI...AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN NEARS. UTILIZED THE PROBABILITY
OF ICE PRESENT FROM THE RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHEN AND WHERE
-FZDZ MAY SET UP BEFORE COLD AIR PUSHES ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI
/BASICALLY BY 18Z/ FOR ANY LINGERING MIXED PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK
TO JUST -SHSN. LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER
AIR SLIDES IN. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND GET DOWN TO AROUND -17C BY 00Z...AND -20C BY
06Z FRIDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W FAVORED
BY NNW WINDS.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
LOWERING DGZ TO AROUND 4KFT OR LESS BY 06Z FRIDAY...WINDS STILL
GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL KEEP SLR VALUES FROM RISING BACK UP TO
25:1 TOO FAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD AND AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
AROUND 2IN OR LESS ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

ONE CONCERN FOR THE EVENING PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A MESO
LOW SETTING UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER 03Z...KEEPING A
BAND OF MORE MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL/E MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND W ALGER COUNTY. THE NAM AND REGIONAL WRF HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL. HAVE EXPANDED SNOW FARTHER W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS
WELL AS KEPT THE WINDS UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR A BIT LONGER
/WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR/. ENHANCED BY THE
WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON M-28. EVEN WITHOUT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE...DEPENDING ON HOW SOLID
SNOW BANKS ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD HAVE BECOME AND HOW MUCH SNOW HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ICE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT IS EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS IN GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A
SWITCH BACK TO MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OFF AND ON
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX THIS AFTN WITH A WINDOW
FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AS LIFT INCREASES
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVE FM THE NORTHWEST. AT KSAW...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MIX OF
SNOW AND FZDZ THIS AFTN BEFORE COLDER AIR SWITCHES THE PRECIP TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DIMINISHING AND
ENDING TREND TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VSBY MAINLY MVFR AT
ALL THE SITES THOUGH MAY DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR OR VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 291759
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WV AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW IT WELL...THE DEEP MOISTURE SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI IS QUICKLY EXITING E. THE SFC TROUGH SET UP
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING WILL EDGE TO THE E HALF
OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO NOTICE SOME OF THOSE STRONGER N-NNW WINDS BEGIN /WINDS CURRENTLY
AROUND 12KTS AT CMX WILL BEGIN TO GUSTS 25-30KTS/.

-FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED OFF AND ON THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN BULK OF
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI...AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN NEARS. UTILIZED THE PROBABILITY
OF ICE PRESENT FROM THE RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHEN AND WHERE
-FZDZ MAY SET UP BEFORE COLD AIR PUSHES ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI
/BASICALLY BY 18Z/ FOR ANY LINGERING MIXED PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK
TO JUST -SHSN. LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER
AIR SLIDES IN. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND GET DOWN TO AROUND -17C BY 00Z...AND -20C BY
06Z FRIDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W FAVORED
BY NNW WINDS.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
LOWERING DGZ TO AROUND 4KFT OR LESS BY 06Z FRIDAY...WINDS STILL
GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL KEEP SLR VALUES FROM RISING BACK UP TO
25:1 TOO FAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD AND AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
AROUND 2IN OR LESS ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

ONE CONCERN FOR THE EVENING PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A MESO
LOW SETTING UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER 03Z...KEEPING A
BAND OF MORE MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL/E MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND W ALGER COUNTY. THE NAM AND REGIONAL WRF HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL. HAVE EXPANDED SNOW FARTHER W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS
WELL AS KEPT THE WINDS UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR A BIT LONGER
/WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR/. ENHANCED BY THE
WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON M-28. EVEN WITHOUT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE...DEPENDING ON HOW SOLID
SNOW BANKS ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD HAVE BECOME AND HOW MUCH SNOW HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ICE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT IS EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS IN GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A
SWITCH BACK TO MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OFF AND ON
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX THIS AFTN WITH A WINDOW
FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AS LIFT INCREASES
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVE FM THE NORTHWEST. AT KSAW...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MIX OF
SNOW AND FZDZ THIS AFTN BEFORE COLDER AIR SWITCHES THE PRECIP TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DIMINISHING AND
ENDING TREND TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VSBY MAINLY MVFR AT
ALL THE SITES THOUGH MAY DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR OR VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 291759
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WV AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW IT WELL...THE DEEP MOISTURE SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI IS QUICKLY EXITING E. THE SFC TROUGH SET UP
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING WILL EDGE TO THE E HALF
OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO NOTICE SOME OF THOSE STRONGER N-NNW WINDS BEGIN /WINDS CURRENTLY
AROUND 12KTS AT CMX WILL BEGIN TO GUSTS 25-30KTS/.

-FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED OFF AND ON THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN BULK OF
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI...AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN NEARS. UTILIZED THE PROBABILITY
OF ICE PRESENT FROM THE RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHEN AND WHERE
-FZDZ MAY SET UP BEFORE COLD AIR PUSHES ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI
/BASICALLY BY 18Z/ FOR ANY LINGERING MIXED PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK
TO JUST -SHSN. LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER
AIR SLIDES IN. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND GET DOWN TO AROUND -17C BY 00Z...AND -20C BY
06Z FRIDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W FAVORED
BY NNW WINDS.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
LOWERING DGZ TO AROUND 4KFT OR LESS BY 06Z FRIDAY...WINDS STILL
GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL KEEP SLR VALUES FROM RISING BACK UP TO
25:1 TOO FAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD AND AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
AROUND 2IN OR LESS ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

ONE CONCERN FOR THE EVENING PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A MESO
LOW SETTING UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER 03Z...KEEPING A
BAND OF MORE MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL/E MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND W ALGER COUNTY. THE NAM AND REGIONAL WRF HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL. HAVE EXPANDED SNOW FARTHER W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS
WELL AS KEPT THE WINDS UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR A BIT LONGER
/WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR/. ENHANCED BY THE
WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON M-28. EVEN WITHOUT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE...DEPENDING ON HOW SOLID
SNOW BANKS ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD HAVE BECOME AND HOW MUCH SNOW HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ICE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT IS EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS IN GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A
SWITCH BACK TO MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OFF AND ON
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX THIS AFTN WITH A WINDOW
FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AS LIFT INCREASES
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVE FM THE NORTHWEST. AT KSAW...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MIX OF
SNOW AND FZDZ THIS AFTN BEFORE COLDER AIR SWITCHES THE PRECIP TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DIMINISHING AND
ENDING TREND TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VSBY MAINLY MVFR AT
ALL THE SITES THOUGH MAY DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR OR VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 291759
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WV AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW IT WELL...THE DEEP MOISTURE SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI IS QUICKLY EXITING E. THE SFC TROUGH SET UP
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING WILL EDGE TO THE E HALF
OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO NOTICE SOME OF THOSE STRONGER N-NNW WINDS BEGIN /WINDS CURRENTLY
AROUND 12KTS AT CMX WILL BEGIN TO GUSTS 25-30KTS/.

-FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED OFF AND ON THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN BULK OF
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI...AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN NEARS. UTILIZED THE PROBABILITY
OF ICE PRESENT FROM THE RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHEN AND WHERE
-FZDZ MAY SET UP BEFORE COLD AIR PUSHES ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI
/BASICALLY BY 18Z/ FOR ANY LINGERING MIXED PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK
TO JUST -SHSN. LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER
AIR SLIDES IN. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND GET DOWN TO AROUND -17C BY 00Z...AND -20C BY
06Z FRIDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W FAVORED
BY NNW WINDS.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
LOWERING DGZ TO AROUND 4KFT OR LESS BY 06Z FRIDAY...WINDS STILL
GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL KEEP SLR VALUES FROM RISING BACK UP TO
25:1 TOO FAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD AND AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
AROUND 2IN OR LESS ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

ONE CONCERN FOR THE EVENING PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A MESO
LOW SETTING UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER 03Z...KEEPING A
BAND OF MORE MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL/E MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND W ALGER COUNTY. THE NAM AND REGIONAL WRF HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL. HAVE EXPANDED SNOW FARTHER W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS
WELL AS KEPT THE WINDS UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR A BIT LONGER
/WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR/. ENHANCED BY THE
WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON M-28. EVEN WITHOUT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE...DEPENDING ON HOW SOLID
SNOW BANKS ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD HAVE BECOME AND HOW MUCH SNOW HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ICE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT IS EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS IN GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A
SWITCH BACK TO MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OFF AND ON
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX THIS AFTN WITH A WINDOW
FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AS LIFT INCREASES
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVE FM THE NORTHWEST. AT KSAW...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MIX OF
SNOW AND FZDZ THIS AFTN BEFORE COLDER AIR SWITCHES THE PRECIP TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DIMINISHING AND
ENDING TREND TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VSBY MAINLY MVFR AT
ALL THE SITES THOUGH MAY DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR OR VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KDTX 291703
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1203 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

THE REGION OF PRECIP NOW MOVING ACROSS SW MI WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW
FROM PTK NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTH. THERE IS A DEFINITE BACK EDGE TO
THIS PRECIP /MARKED BY THE END OF LARGER SCALE FORCING/. THIS BACK
EDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MI BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. THE ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL PASS EAST OF METRO DETROIT AFTER 19Z CAUSING A VEERING OF
THE WIND TOWARD THE W-NW WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.
SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...MARKED BY A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL CAUSE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE WINDS /POSSIBLY GUSTING UP
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES/.

FOR DTW...ENOUGH WARM AIR IS IN PLACE OVER METRO DETROIT TO SUPPORT
RAIN MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AS THIS SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP ARRIVES
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION BEING MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 948 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATE...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS CNTL INDIANA WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WRN UP INTO SRN MN. THE REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF
SNOW EXTENDING ACROSS NRN AND CNTL LOWER MI...WITHIN THE REGION OF
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES. THIS DEFORMATION
FORCING WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. FARTHER
SOUTH...RADAR DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MI. THESE ARE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN LIGHT OF THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
OHIO VALLEY WAVE AND WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
THESE WAVES WILL ALLOW THE FORCING TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO SOME
ENHANCED MID LEVEL FGEN ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS.

THE ASSOC SFC LOW LOCATED ALONG THE IN/MI BORDER AS OF 14Z...WILL
LIFT INTO SE MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS LOW HAVE
RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. THIS WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
METRO DETROIT. THE DEPTH OF THE WARM AIR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
PRECIP MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR METRO DETROIT
SOUTH /ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET IN ANY
HIGHER INTENSITY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/. THE WARM LAYER WILL BE MUCH
MORE SHALLOW FARTHER NORTH...SUPPORTING MAINLY SNOW. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MIDLAND/BAY/HURON COUNTIES WHERE FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT. ACCUMS FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID LEVEL FGEN...FAVORING A PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THIS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE VERY BRIEF AND WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ACCUMS
MINIMAL IF ANY. AN UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO
REFLECT THESE LATEST PRECIP TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 242 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z KDTX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER IN PLACE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 750 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS KEPT A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS THE MAIN SYSTEM ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

FORCING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL PROGRESS
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM ITS CURRENTLY POSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...BETWEEN
THE DRY LOW LEVELS STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW...AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TRAILING THIS FEATURE INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA MAY RECEIVE 3 OR 4 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SLEET
OR SNOW...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO METRO DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH...A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SLEET WILL CROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...ANY LIQUID THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST
LIKELY FREEZE ON SURFACES. AT THIS TIME...ONLY PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THE THE PRECIPITATION.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN AOA FREEZING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD FROM
METRO DETROIT TO THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREE OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW/MID TEENS I-94 SOUTH. ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.

LONG TERM...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUTTED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
IN ALBERTA THIS MORNING IS INTENSIFYING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. COLLAPSE OF UPPER SUPPORT
DUE TO INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL FORCE THE
HIGH TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT NW GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL EASE AS THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES THE AREA, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR -17C, HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH AND DRY NW FLOW, SUPPORTED BY
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE 00Z NAM, SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NW
WHERE LAKE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
MORE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK. FOR THIS SAME REASON, LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINING IN THE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

A MOISTURE STARVED WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE,
WHICH HAS YET TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP, IS FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW LATE TONIGHT AND COME
ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY SHEAR TO SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT TO SOME DEGREE WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA.

WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER A WIDE AREA GIVEN GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 4-5 G/KG H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY COURTESY OF
SOUTHERN STREAM INVOLVEMENT. THE KEY PLAYER IN THE LOCAL FORECAST
WILL BE JUST HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS OVER MONTANA,
WYOMING, AND COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER THE
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW, THE GREATER SNOW PROSPECTS BECOME.
AS IT STANDS, THE NAM AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS SO AND CONFINE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO STILL MADE
NOTEWORTHY MOVES TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT 00Z IN
COMPARISON TO THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTH/SOUTH SOLUTIONS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TWO
CONTROL RUNS REMAINING RIGHT IN BETWEEN AND CENTERING THE ACTION
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN THAT THE S/W HAS YET TO EMERGE, TYPICAL
NWP PROBLEMS WITH CLOSED LOWS, AND GENERAL LOW MEDIUM RANGE
PREDICTABILITY THIS WINTER, WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE BLENDED EXTENDED
GRIDS TO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT.

MARINE...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS GIVEN THE STABILITY OF WARM SOUTH FLOW. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG GALES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITH HIGHER MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. CONSIDERABLE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
CONDITIONS AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291703
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1203 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

THE REGION OF PRECIP NOW MOVING ACROSS SW MI WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW
FROM PTK NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTH. THERE IS A DEFINITE BACK EDGE TO
THIS PRECIP /MARKED BY THE END OF LARGER SCALE FORCING/. THIS BACK
EDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MI BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. THE ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL PASS EAST OF METRO DETROIT AFTER 19Z CAUSING A VEERING OF
THE WIND TOWARD THE W-NW WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.
SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...MARKED BY A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL CAUSE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE WINDS /POSSIBLY GUSTING UP
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES/.

FOR DTW...ENOUGH WARM AIR IS IN PLACE OVER METRO DETROIT TO SUPPORT
RAIN MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AS THIS SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP ARRIVES
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION BEING MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 948 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATE...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS CNTL INDIANA WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WRN UP INTO SRN MN. THE REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF
SNOW EXTENDING ACROSS NRN AND CNTL LOWER MI...WITHIN THE REGION OF
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES. THIS DEFORMATION
FORCING WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. FARTHER
SOUTH...RADAR DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MI. THESE ARE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN LIGHT OF THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
OHIO VALLEY WAVE AND WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
THESE WAVES WILL ALLOW THE FORCING TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO SOME
ENHANCED MID LEVEL FGEN ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS.

THE ASSOC SFC LOW LOCATED ALONG THE IN/MI BORDER AS OF 14Z...WILL
LIFT INTO SE MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS LOW HAVE
RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. THIS WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
METRO DETROIT. THE DEPTH OF THE WARM AIR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
PRECIP MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR METRO DETROIT
SOUTH /ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET IN ANY
HIGHER INTENSITY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/. THE WARM LAYER WILL BE MUCH
MORE SHALLOW FARTHER NORTH...SUPPORTING MAINLY SNOW. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MIDLAND/BAY/HURON COUNTIES WHERE FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT. ACCUMS FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID LEVEL FGEN...FAVORING A PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THIS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE VERY BRIEF AND WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ACCUMS
MINIMAL IF ANY. AN UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO
REFLECT THESE LATEST PRECIP TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 242 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z KDTX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER IN PLACE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 750 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS KEPT A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS THE MAIN SYSTEM ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

FORCING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL PROGRESS
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM ITS CURRENTLY POSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...BETWEEN
THE DRY LOW LEVELS STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW...AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TRAILING THIS FEATURE INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA MAY RECEIVE 3 OR 4 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SLEET
OR SNOW...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO METRO DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH...A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SLEET WILL CROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...ANY LIQUID THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST
LIKELY FREEZE ON SURFACES. AT THIS TIME...ONLY PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THE THE PRECIPITATION.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN AOA FREEZING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD FROM
METRO DETROIT TO THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREE OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW/MID TEENS I-94 SOUTH. ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.

LONG TERM...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUTTED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
IN ALBERTA THIS MORNING IS INTENSIFYING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. COLLAPSE OF UPPER SUPPORT
DUE TO INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL FORCE THE
HIGH TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT NW GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL EASE AS THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES THE AREA, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR -17C, HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH AND DRY NW FLOW, SUPPORTED BY
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE 00Z NAM, SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NW
WHERE LAKE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
MORE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK. FOR THIS SAME REASON, LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINING IN THE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

A MOISTURE STARVED WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE,
WHICH HAS YET TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP, IS FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW LATE TONIGHT AND COME
ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY SHEAR TO SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT TO SOME DEGREE WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA.

WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER A WIDE AREA GIVEN GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 4-5 G/KG H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY COURTESY OF
SOUTHERN STREAM INVOLVEMENT. THE KEY PLAYER IN THE LOCAL FORECAST
WILL BE JUST HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS OVER MONTANA,
WYOMING, AND COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER THE
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW, THE GREATER SNOW PROSPECTS BECOME.
AS IT STANDS, THE NAM AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS SO AND CONFINE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO STILL MADE
NOTEWORTHY MOVES TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT 00Z IN
COMPARISON TO THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTH/SOUTH SOLUTIONS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TWO
CONTROL RUNS REMAINING RIGHT IN BETWEEN AND CENTERING THE ACTION
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN THAT THE S/W HAS YET TO EMERGE, TYPICAL
NWP PROBLEMS WITH CLOSED LOWS, AND GENERAL LOW MEDIUM RANGE
PREDICTABILITY THIS WINTER, WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE BLENDED EXTENDED
GRIDS TO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT.

MARINE...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS GIVEN THE STABILITY OF WARM SOUTH FLOW. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG GALES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITH HIGHER MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. CONSIDERABLE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
CONDITIONS AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291703
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1203 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

THE REGION OF PRECIP NOW MOVING ACROSS SW MI WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW
FROM PTK NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTH. THERE IS A DEFINITE BACK EDGE TO
THIS PRECIP /MARKED BY THE END OF LARGER SCALE FORCING/. THIS BACK
EDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MI BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. THE ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL PASS EAST OF METRO DETROIT AFTER 19Z CAUSING A VEERING OF
THE WIND TOWARD THE W-NW WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.
SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...MARKED BY A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL CAUSE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE WINDS /POSSIBLY GUSTING UP
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES/.

FOR DTW...ENOUGH WARM AIR IS IN PLACE OVER METRO DETROIT TO SUPPORT
RAIN MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AS THIS SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP ARRIVES
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION BEING MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 948 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATE...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS CNTL INDIANA WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WRN UP INTO SRN MN. THE REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF
SNOW EXTENDING ACROSS NRN AND CNTL LOWER MI...WITHIN THE REGION OF
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES. THIS DEFORMATION
FORCING WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. FARTHER
SOUTH...RADAR DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MI. THESE ARE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN LIGHT OF THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
OHIO VALLEY WAVE AND WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
THESE WAVES WILL ALLOW THE FORCING TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO SOME
ENHANCED MID LEVEL FGEN ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS.

THE ASSOC SFC LOW LOCATED ALONG THE IN/MI BORDER AS OF 14Z...WILL
LIFT INTO SE MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS LOW HAVE
RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. THIS WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
METRO DETROIT. THE DEPTH OF THE WARM AIR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
PRECIP MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR METRO DETROIT
SOUTH /ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET IN ANY
HIGHER INTENSITY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/. THE WARM LAYER WILL BE MUCH
MORE SHALLOW FARTHER NORTH...SUPPORTING MAINLY SNOW. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MIDLAND/BAY/HURON COUNTIES WHERE FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT. ACCUMS FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID LEVEL FGEN...FAVORING A PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THIS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE VERY BRIEF AND WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ACCUMS
MINIMAL IF ANY. AN UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO
REFLECT THESE LATEST PRECIP TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 242 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z KDTX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER IN PLACE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 750 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS KEPT A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS THE MAIN SYSTEM ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

FORCING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL PROGRESS
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM ITS CURRENTLY POSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...BETWEEN
THE DRY LOW LEVELS STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW...AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TRAILING THIS FEATURE INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA MAY RECEIVE 3 OR 4 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SLEET
OR SNOW...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO METRO DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH...A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SLEET WILL CROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...ANY LIQUID THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST
LIKELY FREEZE ON SURFACES. AT THIS TIME...ONLY PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THE THE PRECIPITATION.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN AOA FREEZING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD FROM
METRO DETROIT TO THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREE OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW/MID TEENS I-94 SOUTH. ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.

LONG TERM...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUTTED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
IN ALBERTA THIS MORNING IS INTENSIFYING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. COLLAPSE OF UPPER SUPPORT
DUE TO INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL FORCE THE
HIGH TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT NW GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL EASE AS THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES THE AREA, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR -17C, HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH AND DRY NW FLOW, SUPPORTED BY
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE 00Z NAM, SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NW
WHERE LAKE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
MORE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK. FOR THIS SAME REASON, LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINING IN THE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

A MOISTURE STARVED WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE,
WHICH HAS YET TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP, IS FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW LATE TONIGHT AND COME
ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY SHEAR TO SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT TO SOME DEGREE WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA.

WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER A WIDE AREA GIVEN GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 4-5 G/KG H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY COURTESY OF
SOUTHERN STREAM INVOLVEMENT. THE KEY PLAYER IN THE LOCAL FORECAST
WILL BE JUST HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS OVER MONTANA,
WYOMING, AND COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER THE
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW, THE GREATER SNOW PROSPECTS BECOME.
AS IT STANDS, THE NAM AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS SO AND CONFINE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO STILL MADE
NOTEWORTHY MOVES TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT 00Z IN
COMPARISON TO THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTH/SOUTH SOLUTIONS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TWO
CONTROL RUNS REMAINING RIGHT IN BETWEEN AND CENTERING THE ACTION
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN THAT THE S/W HAS YET TO EMERGE, TYPICAL
NWP PROBLEMS WITH CLOSED LOWS, AND GENERAL LOW MEDIUM RANGE
PREDICTABILITY THIS WINTER, WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE BLENDED EXTENDED
GRIDS TO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT.

MARINE...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS GIVEN THE STABILITY OF WARM SOUTH FLOW. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG GALES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITH HIGHER MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. CONSIDERABLE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
CONDITIONS AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291703
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1203 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

THE REGION OF PRECIP NOW MOVING ACROSS SW MI WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW
FROM PTK NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTH. THERE IS A DEFINITE BACK EDGE TO
THIS PRECIP /MARKED BY THE END OF LARGER SCALE FORCING/. THIS BACK
EDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MI BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. THE ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL PASS EAST OF METRO DETROIT AFTER 19Z CAUSING A VEERING OF
THE WIND TOWARD THE W-NW WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.
SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...MARKED BY A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL CAUSE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE WINDS /POSSIBLY GUSTING UP
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES/.

FOR DTW...ENOUGH WARM AIR IS IN PLACE OVER METRO DETROIT TO SUPPORT
RAIN MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AS THIS SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP ARRIVES
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION BEING MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 948 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATE...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS CNTL INDIANA WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WRN UP INTO SRN MN. THE REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF
SNOW EXTENDING ACROSS NRN AND CNTL LOWER MI...WITHIN THE REGION OF
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES. THIS DEFORMATION
FORCING WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. FARTHER
SOUTH...RADAR DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MI. THESE ARE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN LIGHT OF THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
OHIO VALLEY WAVE AND WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
THESE WAVES WILL ALLOW THE FORCING TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO SOME
ENHANCED MID LEVEL FGEN ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS.

THE ASSOC SFC LOW LOCATED ALONG THE IN/MI BORDER AS OF 14Z...WILL
LIFT INTO SE MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS LOW HAVE
RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. THIS WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
METRO DETROIT. THE DEPTH OF THE WARM AIR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
PRECIP MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR METRO DETROIT
SOUTH /ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET IN ANY
HIGHER INTENSITY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/. THE WARM LAYER WILL BE MUCH
MORE SHALLOW FARTHER NORTH...SUPPORTING MAINLY SNOW. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MIDLAND/BAY/HURON COUNTIES WHERE FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT. ACCUMS FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID LEVEL FGEN...FAVORING A PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THIS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE VERY BRIEF AND WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ACCUMS
MINIMAL IF ANY. AN UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO
REFLECT THESE LATEST PRECIP TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 242 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z KDTX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER IN PLACE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 750 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS KEPT A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS THE MAIN SYSTEM ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

FORCING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL PROGRESS
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM ITS CURRENTLY POSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...BETWEEN
THE DRY LOW LEVELS STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW...AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TRAILING THIS FEATURE INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA MAY RECEIVE 3 OR 4 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SLEET
OR SNOW...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO METRO DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH...A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SLEET WILL CROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...ANY LIQUID THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST
LIKELY FREEZE ON SURFACES. AT THIS TIME...ONLY PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THE THE PRECIPITATION.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN AOA FREEZING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD FROM
METRO DETROIT TO THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREE OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW/MID TEENS I-94 SOUTH. ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.

LONG TERM...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUTTED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
IN ALBERTA THIS MORNING IS INTENSIFYING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. COLLAPSE OF UPPER SUPPORT
DUE TO INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL FORCE THE
HIGH TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT NW GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL EASE AS THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES THE AREA, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR -17C, HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH AND DRY NW FLOW, SUPPORTED BY
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE 00Z NAM, SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NW
WHERE LAKE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
MORE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK. FOR THIS SAME REASON, LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINING IN THE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

A MOISTURE STARVED WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE,
WHICH HAS YET TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP, IS FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW LATE TONIGHT AND COME
ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY SHEAR TO SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT TO SOME DEGREE WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA.

WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER A WIDE AREA GIVEN GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 4-5 G/KG H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY COURTESY OF
SOUTHERN STREAM INVOLVEMENT. THE KEY PLAYER IN THE LOCAL FORECAST
WILL BE JUST HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS OVER MONTANA,
WYOMING, AND COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER THE
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW, THE GREATER SNOW PROSPECTS BECOME.
AS IT STANDS, THE NAM AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS SO AND CONFINE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO STILL MADE
NOTEWORTHY MOVES TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT 00Z IN
COMPARISON TO THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTH/SOUTH SOLUTIONS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TWO
CONTROL RUNS REMAINING RIGHT IN BETWEEN AND CENTERING THE ACTION
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN THAT THE S/W HAS YET TO EMERGE, TYPICAL
NWP PROBLEMS WITH CLOSED LOWS, AND GENERAL LOW MEDIUM RANGE
PREDICTABILITY THIS WINTER, WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE BLENDED EXTENDED
GRIDS TO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT.

MARINE...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS GIVEN THE STABILITY OF WARM SOUTH FLOW. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG GALES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITH HIGHER MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. CONSIDERABLE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
CONDITIONS AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 291635
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED 1006MB LOW ALONG THE MICHIGAN/
INDIANA BORDER...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH UP THE LONG
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL IOWA RESPECTIVELY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
INDIANA AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH HELPING DRIVE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AROUND 700MB HELPING FOCUS AN
EARLIER SNOW BURST OVER NORTHERN LOWER (GETTING REPORTS OF 4-6+
INCHES LOCALLY).  A SECOND NARROW BAND OF SNOW LIES RIGHT ALONG/
AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.  SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL ZONE.

BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 21Z.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIN UP SOME LAKE CONVECTION
IN NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH PRIOR TO THAT MOIST LOW
LAYERS AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MARGINAL
CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WILL LET ADVISORY DROP OFF WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...TVC AND APN WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING...

SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONGER LIFT AND
HEAVIER SNOWS HAS DEVELOPED FROM TVC TO APN. AM EXPECTING HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 15-16Z AND
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. MOST ALL FORCING WILL BE GONE BY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SOME POTENTIAL VERY LIGHT REMNANT SNOWS. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ACROSS APN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS
BEING VARIABLE OF 5 KTS OR LESS FOR ALL AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GUST TO 25-35 KNOTS
(HIGHEST NEAR MBL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SLIGHT DROP OFF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 291635
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED 1006MB LOW ALONG THE MICHIGAN/
INDIANA BORDER...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH UP THE LONG
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL IOWA RESPECTIVELY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
INDIANA AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH HELPING DRIVE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AROUND 700MB HELPING FOCUS AN
EARLIER SNOW BURST OVER NORTHERN LOWER (GETTING REPORTS OF 4-6+
INCHES LOCALLY).  A SECOND NARROW BAND OF SNOW LIES RIGHT ALONG/
AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.  SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL ZONE.

BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 21Z.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIN UP SOME LAKE CONVECTION
IN NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH PRIOR TO THAT MOIST LOW
LAYERS AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MARGINAL
CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WILL LET ADVISORY DROP OFF WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...TVC AND APN WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING...

SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONGER LIFT AND
HEAVIER SNOWS HAS DEVELOPED FROM TVC TO APN. AM EXPECTING HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 15-16Z AND
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. MOST ALL FORCING WILL BE GONE BY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SOME POTENTIAL VERY LIGHT REMNANT SNOWS. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ACROSS APN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS
BEING VARIABLE OF 5 KTS OR LESS FOR ALL AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GUST TO 25-35 KNOTS
(HIGHEST NEAR MBL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SLIGHT DROP OFF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD



000
FXUS63 KGRR 291607
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN EVEN FOR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. REED CITY CAME IN WITH FREEZING RAIN RECENTLY
AS THE DGZ BECAME UNSATURATED. OVERALL PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES INCLUDING BIG RAPIDS AND HARRISON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291607
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN EVEN FOR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. REED CITY CAME IN WITH FREEZING RAIN RECENTLY
AS THE DGZ BECAME UNSATURATED. OVERALL PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES INCLUDING BIG RAPIDS AND HARRISON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291607
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN EVEN FOR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. REED CITY CAME IN WITH FREEZING RAIN RECENTLY
AS THE DGZ BECAME UNSATURATED. OVERALL PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES INCLUDING BIG RAPIDS AND HARRISON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291607
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN EVEN FOR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. REED CITY CAME IN WITH FREEZING RAIN RECENTLY
AS THE DGZ BECAME UNSATURATED. OVERALL PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES INCLUDING BIG RAPIDS AND HARRISON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO SUPPORT ICE
BUILD UP ON RIVERS. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
951 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN EVEN FOR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. REED CITY CAME IN WITH FREEZING RAIN RECENTLY
AS THE DGZ BECAME UNSATURATED. OVERALL PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES INCLUDING BIG RAPIDS AND HARRISON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 291451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
951 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN EVEN FOR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. REED CITY CAME IN WITH FREEZING RAIN RECENTLY
AS THE DGZ BECAME UNSATURATED. OVERALL PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES INCLUDING BIG RAPIDS AND HARRISON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 291451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
951 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN EVEN FOR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. REED CITY CAME IN WITH FREEZING RAIN RECENTLY
AS THE DGZ BECAME UNSATURATED. OVERALL PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES INCLUDING BIG RAPIDS AND HARRISON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 291451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
951 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN EVEN FOR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. REED CITY CAME IN WITH FREEZING RAIN RECENTLY
AS THE DGZ BECAME UNSATURATED. OVERALL PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES INCLUDING BIG RAPIDS AND HARRISON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KDTX 291448
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
948 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS CNTL INDIANA WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WRN UP INTO SRN MN. THE REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF
SNOW EXTENDING ACROSS NRN AND CNTL LOWER MI...WITHIN THE REGION OF
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES. THIS DEFORMATION
FORCING WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. FARTHER
SOUTH...RADAR DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MI. THESE ARE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN LIGHT OF THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
OHIO VALLEY WAVE AND WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
THESE WAVES WILL ALLOW THE FORCING TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO SOME
ENHANCED MID LEVEL FGEN ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS.

THE ASSOC SFC LOW LOCATED ALONG THE IN/MI BORDER AS OF 14Z...WILL
LIFT INTO SE MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS LOW HAVE
RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. THIS WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
METRO DETROIT. THE DEPTH OF THE WARM AIR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
PRECIP MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR METRO DETROIT
SOUTH /ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET IN ANY
HIGHER INTENSITY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/. THE WARM LAYER WILL BE MUCH
MORE SHALLOW FARTHER NORTH...SUPPORTING MAINLY SNOW. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MIDLAND/BAY/HURON COUNTIES WHERE FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT. ACCUMS FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID LEVEL FGEN...FAVORING A PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THIS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE VERY BRIEF AND WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ACCUMS
MINIMAL IF ANY. AN UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO
REFLECT THESE LATEST PRECIP TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 603 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LEAD FORCING IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MOST PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH JUST SCATTERED
-FRZAPL SOUTH OF PTK AND -SNPL NORTH. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN
END PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE ACTUAL VORTICITY CENTER CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 16Z-23Z TIME FRAME. AT THAT POINT...SCT -SHSN WILL BE COMMON
PTK NORTH WITH SCT -SHRA MIXED WITH AND CHANGING TO -SHSN ALONG THE
I-94 TERMINALS. VFR CIGS WILL BE REPLACED BY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH CIGS RISING AGAIN TONIGHT AS DRIER NW
FLOW SETS UP IN ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY TONIGHT AS
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM WILL BE ENHANCED WITHIN AREA OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

FOR DTW...A FEW PATCHES OF -FRZAPL WILL END EARLY IN THE FORECAST
AND THEN BE REPLACED BY MIDDAY BY -SHRA...WHICH WILL TURN BACK TO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THE
LOWEST CIGS OCCURRING 19Z-23Z OR SO.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 16Z.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS -FZRAIP MIX THIS MORNING AND -SHRA
  CHANGING TO -SHSN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 242 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z KDTX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER IN PLACE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 750 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS KEPT A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS THE MAIN SYSTEM ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

FORCING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL PROGRESS
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM ITS CURRENTLY POSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...BETWEEN
THE DRY LOW LEVELS STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW...AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TRAILING THIS FEATURE INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA MAY RECEIVE 3 OR 4 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SLEET
OR SNOW...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO METRO DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH...A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SLEET WILL CROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...ANY LIQUID THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST
LIKELY FREEZE ON SURFACES. AT THIS TIME...ONLY PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THE THE PRECIPITATION.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN AOA FREEZING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD FROM
METRO DETROIT TO THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREE OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW/MID TEENS I-94 SOUTH. ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.

LONG TERM...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUTTED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
IN ALBERTA THIS MORNING IS INTENSIFYING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. COLLAPSE OF UPPER SUPPORT
DUE TO INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL FORCE THE
HIGH TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT NW GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL EASE AS THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES THE AREA, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR -17C, HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH AND DRY NW FLOW, SUPPORTED BY
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE 00Z NAM, SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NW
WHERE LAKE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
MORE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK. FOR THIS SAME REASON, LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINING IN THE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

A MOISTURE STARVED WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE,
WHICH HAS YET TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP, IS FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW LATE TONIGHT AND COME
ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY SHEAR TO SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT TO SOME DEGREE WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA.

WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER A WIDE AREA GIVEN GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 4-5 G/KG H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY COURTESY OF
SOUTHERN STREAM INVOLVEMENT. THE KEY PLAYER IN THE LOCAL FORECAST
WILL BE JUST HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS OVER MONTANA,
WYOMING, AND COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER THE
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW, THE GREATER SNOW PROSPECTS BECOME.
AS IT STANDS, THE NAM AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS SO AND CONFINE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO STILL MADE
NOTEWORTHY MOVES TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT 00Z IN
COMPARISON TO THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTH/SOUTH SOLUTIONS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TWO
CONTROL RUNS REMAINING RIGHT IN BETWEEN AND CENTERING THE ACTION
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN THAT THE S/W HAS YET TO EMERGE, TYPICAL
NWP PROBLEMS WITH CLOSED LOWS, AND GENERAL LOW MEDIUM RANGE
PREDICTABILITY THIS WINTER, WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE BLENDED EXTENDED
GRIDS TO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT.

MARINE...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS GIVEN THE STABILITY OF WARM SOUTH FLOW. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG GALES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITH HIGHER MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. CONSIDERABLE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
CONDITIONS AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291448
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
948 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS CNTL INDIANA WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WRN UP INTO SRN MN. THE REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF
SNOW EXTENDING ACROSS NRN AND CNTL LOWER MI...WITHIN THE REGION OF
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES. THIS DEFORMATION
FORCING WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. FARTHER
SOUTH...RADAR DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MI. THESE ARE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN LIGHT OF THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
OHIO VALLEY WAVE AND WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
THESE WAVES WILL ALLOW THE FORCING TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO SOME
ENHANCED MID LEVEL FGEN ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS.

THE ASSOC SFC LOW LOCATED ALONG THE IN/MI BORDER AS OF 14Z...WILL
LIFT INTO SE MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS LOW HAVE
RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. THIS WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
METRO DETROIT. THE DEPTH OF THE WARM AIR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
PRECIP MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR METRO DETROIT
SOUTH /ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET IN ANY
HIGHER INTENSITY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/. THE WARM LAYER WILL BE MUCH
MORE SHALLOW FARTHER NORTH...SUPPORTING MAINLY SNOW. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MIDLAND/BAY/HURON COUNTIES WHERE FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT. ACCUMS FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID LEVEL FGEN...FAVORING A PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THIS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE VERY BRIEF AND WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ACCUMS
MINIMAL IF ANY. AN UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO
REFLECT THESE LATEST PRECIP TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 603 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LEAD FORCING IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MOST PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH JUST SCATTERED
-FRZAPL SOUTH OF PTK AND -SNPL NORTH. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN
END PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE ACTUAL VORTICITY CENTER CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 16Z-23Z TIME FRAME. AT THAT POINT...SCT -SHSN WILL BE COMMON
PTK NORTH WITH SCT -SHRA MIXED WITH AND CHANGING TO -SHSN ALONG THE
I-94 TERMINALS. VFR CIGS WILL BE REPLACED BY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH CIGS RISING AGAIN TONIGHT AS DRIER NW
FLOW SETS UP IN ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY TONIGHT AS
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM WILL BE ENHANCED WITHIN AREA OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

FOR DTW...A FEW PATCHES OF -FRZAPL WILL END EARLY IN THE FORECAST
AND THEN BE REPLACED BY MIDDAY BY -SHRA...WHICH WILL TURN BACK TO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THE
LOWEST CIGS OCCURRING 19Z-23Z OR SO.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 16Z.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS -FZRAIP MIX THIS MORNING AND -SHRA
  CHANGING TO -SHSN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 242 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z KDTX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER IN PLACE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 750 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS KEPT A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS THE MAIN SYSTEM ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

FORCING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL PROGRESS
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM ITS CURRENTLY POSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...BETWEEN
THE DRY LOW LEVELS STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW...AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TRAILING THIS FEATURE INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA MAY RECEIVE 3 OR 4 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SLEET
OR SNOW...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO METRO DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH...A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SLEET WILL CROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...ANY LIQUID THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST
LIKELY FREEZE ON SURFACES. AT THIS TIME...ONLY PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THE THE PRECIPITATION.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN AOA FREEZING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD FROM
METRO DETROIT TO THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREE OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW/MID TEENS I-94 SOUTH. ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.

LONG TERM...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUTTED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
IN ALBERTA THIS MORNING IS INTENSIFYING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. COLLAPSE OF UPPER SUPPORT
DUE TO INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL FORCE THE
HIGH TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT NW GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL EASE AS THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES THE AREA, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR -17C, HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH AND DRY NW FLOW, SUPPORTED BY
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE 00Z NAM, SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NW
WHERE LAKE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
MORE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK. FOR THIS SAME REASON, LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINING IN THE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

A MOISTURE STARVED WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE,
WHICH HAS YET TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP, IS FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW LATE TONIGHT AND COME
ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY SHEAR TO SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT TO SOME DEGREE WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA.

WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER A WIDE AREA GIVEN GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 4-5 G/KG H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY COURTESY OF
SOUTHERN STREAM INVOLVEMENT. THE KEY PLAYER IN THE LOCAL FORECAST
WILL BE JUST HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS OVER MONTANA,
WYOMING, AND COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER THE
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW, THE GREATER SNOW PROSPECTS BECOME.
AS IT STANDS, THE NAM AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS SO AND CONFINE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO STILL MADE
NOTEWORTHY MOVES TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT 00Z IN
COMPARISON TO THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTH/SOUTH SOLUTIONS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TWO
CONTROL RUNS REMAINING RIGHT IN BETWEEN AND CENTERING THE ACTION
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN THAT THE S/W HAS YET TO EMERGE, TYPICAL
NWP PROBLEMS WITH CLOSED LOWS, AND GENERAL LOW MEDIUM RANGE
PREDICTABILITY THIS WINTER, WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE BLENDED EXTENDED
GRIDS TO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT.

MARINE...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS GIVEN THE STABILITY OF WARM SOUTH FLOW. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG GALES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITH HIGHER MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. CONSIDERABLE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
CONDITIONS AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 291259
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 291259
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 291259
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 291259
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WE ARE IN THE EXPECTED LULL BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN THAT EXITED EAST
AND AN UPSTREAM BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST WILL BE
MORE COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN IN/OH TODAY...SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL JET
EAST.

A RECENT AIRCRAFT DESCENT SOUNDING INTO GRAND RAPIDS FROM THE
KALAMAZOO VICINITY SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING THAT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 6000 FT. THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TOP OF THIS LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ...IS WEAK /AROUND 1
C/. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME
FZRA. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM LAYER TO REINTENSIFY AS THE LLJ PEELS
OFF TO THE EAST AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING. FZRA
NEAR I-96 THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BECOME RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A DELAY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AIR TEMPERATURES DO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KMQT 291227
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WV AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW IT WELL...THE DEEP MOISTURE SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI IS QUICKLY EXITING E. THE SFC TROUGH SET UP
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING WILL EDGE TO THE E HALF
OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO NOTICE SOME OF THOSE STRONGER N-NNW WINDS BEGIN /WINDS CURRENTLY
AROUND 12KTS AT CMX WILL BEGIN TO GUSTS 25-30KTS/.

-FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED OFF AND ON THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN BULK OF
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI...AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN NEARS. UTILIZED THE PROBABILITY
OF ICE PRESENT FROM THE RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHEN AND WHERE
-FZDZ MAY SET UP BEFORE COLD AIR PUSHES ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI
/BASICALLY BY 18Z/ FOR ANY LINGERING MIXED PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK
TO JUST -SHSN. LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER
AIR SLIDES IN. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND GET DOWN TO AROUND -17C BY 00Z...AND -20C BY
06Z FRIDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W FAVORED
BY NNW WINDS.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
LOWERING DGZ TO AROUND 4KFT OR LESS BY 06Z FRIDAY...WINDS STILL
GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL KEEP SLR VALUES FROM RISING BACK UP TO
25:1 TOO FAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD AND AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
AROUND 2IN OR LESS ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

ONE CONCERN FOR THE EVENING PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A MESO
LOW SETTING UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER 03Z...KEEPING A
BAND OF MORE MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL/E MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND W ALGER COUNTY. THE NAM AND REGIONAL WRF HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL. HAVE EXPANDED SNOW FARTHER W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS
WELL AS KEPT THE WINDS UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR A BIT LONGER
/WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR/. ENHANCED BY THE
WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON M-28. EVEN WITHOUT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE...DEPENDING ON HOW SOLID
SNOW BANKS ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD HAVE BECOME AND HOW MUCH SNOW HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ICE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY N-NNW WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD AT IWD AND
CMX...AND WILL PUSH INTO SAW OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKING IN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST THE STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS
TODAY...AND WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT
NEARLY STEADY STATE CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENHANCES SNOW SHOWERS
BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS WINDS RELAX TO AROUND 10KS OR LESS MORE OUT OF THE
NW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265-266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 291227
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WV AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW IT WELL...THE DEEP MOISTURE SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI IS QUICKLY EXITING E. THE SFC TROUGH SET UP
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING WILL EDGE TO THE E HALF
OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO NOTICE SOME OF THOSE STRONGER N-NNW WINDS BEGIN /WINDS CURRENTLY
AROUND 12KTS AT CMX WILL BEGIN TO GUSTS 25-30KTS/.

-FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED OFF AND ON THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN BULK OF
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI...AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN NEARS. UTILIZED THE PROBABILITY
OF ICE PRESENT FROM THE RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHEN AND WHERE
-FZDZ MAY SET UP BEFORE COLD AIR PUSHES ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI
/BASICALLY BY 18Z/ FOR ANY LINGERING MIXED PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK
TO JUST -SHSN. LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER
AIR SLIDES IN. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND GET DOWN TO AROUND -17C BY 00Z...AND -20C BY
06Z FRIDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W FAVORED
BY NNW WINDS.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
LOWERING DGZ TO AROUND 4KFT OR LESS BY 06Z FRIDAY...WINDS STILL
GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL KEEP SLR VALUES FROM RISING BACK UP TO
25:1 TOO FAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD AND AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
AROUND 2IN OR LESS ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

ONE CONCERN FOR THE EVENING PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A MESO
LOW SETTING UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER 03Z...KEEPING A
BAND OF MORE MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL/E MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND W ALGER COUNTY. THE NAM AND REGIONAL WRF HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL. HAVE EXPANDED SNOW FARTHER W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS
WELL AS KEPT THE WINDS UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR A BIT LONGER
/WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR/. ENHANCED BY THE
WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON M-28. EVEN WITHOUT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE...DEPENDING ON HOW SOLID
SNOW BANKS ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD HAVE BECOME AND HOW MUCH SNOW HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ICE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY N-NNW WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD AT IWD AND
CMX...AND WILL PUSH INTO SAW OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKING IN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST THE STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS
TODAY...AND WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT
NEARLY STEADY STATE CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENHANCES SNOW SHOWERS
BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS WINDS RELAX TO AROUND 10KS OR LESS MORE OUT OF THE
NW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265-266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291219
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
719 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291219
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
719 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
LOWER MI. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW TURNS TO ASSESSING THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GRADUAL COOLING...AND AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WI IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX...HOWEVER SPOTTY PL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE GRR AND LAN TERMINALS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE
REST OF THE MORNING...CONTINUING THE FZRA THREAT.

IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
EARLIER FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE ABRUPT
TRANSITION...WHEREAS THIS UPDATE FEATURES A TRANSITION PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY THE
LOW. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATE OUTCOME WOULD BE A CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RA/FZRA TO SNOW SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KAPX 291123
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
623 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...TVC AND APN WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING...

SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONGER LIFT AND
HEAVIER SNOWS HAS DEVELOPED FROM TVC TO APN. AM EXPECTING HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 15-16Z AND
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. MOST ALL FORCING WILL BE GONE BY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SOME POTENTIAL VERY LIGHT REMNANT SNOWS. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ACROSS APN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS
BEING VARIABLE OF 5 KTS OR LESS FOR ALL AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GUST TO 25-35 KNOTS
(HIGHEST NEAR MBL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SLIGHT DROP OFF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 291123
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
623 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...TVC AND APN WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING...

SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONGER LIFT AND
HEAVIER SNOWS HAS DEVELOPED FROM TVC TO APN. AM EXPECTING HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 15-16Z AND
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. MOST ALL FORCING WILL BE GONE BY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SOME POTENTIAL VERY LIGHT REMNANT SNOWS. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ACROSS APN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS
BEING VARIABLE OF 5 KTS OR LESS FOR ALL AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GUST TO 25-35 KNOTS
(HIGHEST NEAR MBL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SLIGHT DROP OFF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 291123
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
623 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...TVC AND APN WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING...

SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONGER LIFT AND
HEAVIER SNOWS HAS DEVELOPED FROM TVC TO APN. AM EXPECTING HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 15-16Z AND
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. MOST ALL FORCING WILL BE GONE BY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SOME POTENTIAL VERY LIGHT REMNANT SNOWS. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ACROSS APN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS
BEING VARIABLE OF 5 KTS OR LESS FOR ALL AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GUST TO 25-35 KNOTS
(HIGHEST NEAR MBL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SLIGHT DROP OFF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 291123
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
623 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...TVC AND APN WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING...

SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONGER LIFT AND
HEAVIER SNOWS HAS DEVELOPED FROM TVC TO APN. AM EXPECTING HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 15-16Z AND
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. MOST ALL FORCING WILL BE GONE BY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SOME POTENTIAL VERY LIGHT REMNANT SNOWS. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ACROSS APN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS
BEING VARIABLE OF 5 KTS OR LESS FOR ALL AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GUST TO 25-35 KNOTS
(HIGHEST NEAR MBL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SLIGHT DROP OFF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD



000
FXUS63 KDTX 291103
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
603 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

LEAD FORCING IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MOST PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH JUST SCATTERED
-FRZAPL SOUTH OF PTK AND -SNPL NORTH. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN
END PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE ACTUAL VORTICITY CENTER CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 16Z-23Z TIME FRAME. AT THAT POINT...SCT -SHSN WILL BE COMMON
PTK NORTH WITH SCT -SHRA MIXED WITH AND CHANGING TO -SHSN ALONG THE
I-94 TERMINALS. VFR CIGS WILL BE REPLACED BY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH CIGS RISING AGAIN TONIGHT AS DRIER NW
FLOW SETS UP IN ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY TONIGHT AS
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM WILL BE ENHANCED WITHIN AREA OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

FOR DTW...A FEW PATCHES OF -FRZAPL WILL END EARLY IN THE FORECAST
AND THEN BE REPLACED BY MIDDAY BY -SHRA...WHICH WILL TURN BACK TO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THE
LOWEST CIGS OCCURRING 19Z-23Z OR SO.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 16Z.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS -FZRAIP MIX THIS MORNING AND -SHRA
  CHANGING TO -SHSN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 242 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z KDTX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER IN PLACE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 750 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS KEPT A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS THE MAIN SYSTEM ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

FORCING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL PROGRESS
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM ITS CURRENTLY POSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...BETWEEN
THE DRY LOW LEVELS STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW...AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TRAILING THIS FEATURE INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA MAY RECEIVE 3 OR 4 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SLEET
OR SNOW...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO METRO DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH...A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SLEET WILL CROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...ANY LIQUID THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST
LIKELY FREEZE ON SURFACES. AT THIS TIME...ONLY PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THE THE PRECIPITATION.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN AOA FREEZING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD FROM
METRO DETROIT TO THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREE OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW/MID TEENS I-94 SOUTH. ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.

LONG TERM...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUTTED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
IN ALBERTA THIS MORNING IS INTENSIFYING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. COLLAPSE OF UPPER SUPPORT
DUE TO INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL FORCE THE
HIGH TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT NW GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL EASE AS THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES THE AREA, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR -17C, HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH AND DRY NW FLOW, SUPPORTED BY
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE 00Z NAM, SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NW
WHERE LAKE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
MORE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK. FOR THIS SAME REASON, LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINING IN THE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

A MOISTURE STARVED WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE,
WHICH HAS YET TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP, IS FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW LATE TONIGHT AND COME
ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY SHEAR TO SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT TO SOME DEGREE WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA.

WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER A WIDE AREA GIVEN GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 4-5 G/KG H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY COURTESY OF
SOUTHERN STREAM INVOLVEMENT. THE KEY PLAYER IN THE LOCAL FORECAST
WILL BE JUST HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS OVER MONTANA,
WYOMING, AND COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER THE
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW, THE GREATER SNOW PROSPECTS BECOME.
AS IT STANDS, THE NAM AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS SO AND CONFINE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO STILL MADE
NOTEWORTHY MOVES TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT 00Z IN
COMPARISON TO THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTH/SOUTH SOLUTIONS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TWO
CONTROL RUNS REMAINING RIGHT IN BETWEEN AND CENTERING THE ACTION
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN THAT THE S/W HAS YET TO EMERGE, TYPICAL
NWP PROBLEMS WITH CLOSED LOWS, AND GENERAL LOW MEDIUM RANGE
PREDICTABILITY THIS WINTER, WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE BLENDED EXTENDED
GRIDS TO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT.

MARINE...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS GIVEN THE STABILITY OF WARM SOUTH FLOW. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG GALES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITH HIGHER MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. CONSIDERABLE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
CONDITIONS AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290958
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WV AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW IT WELL...THE DEEP MOISTURE SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI IS QUICKLY EXITING E. THE SFC TROUGH SET UP
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING WILL EDGE TO THE E HALF
OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO NOTICE SOME OF THOSE STRONGER N-NNW WINDS BEGIN /WINDS CURRENTLY
AROUND 12KTS AT CMX WILL BEGIN TO GUSTS 25-30KTS/.

-FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED OFF AND ON THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN BULK OF
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI...AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN NEARS. UTILIZED THE PROBABILITY
OF ICE PRESENT FROM THE RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHEN AND WHERE
-FZDZ MAY SET UP BEFORE COLD AIR PUSHES ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI
/BASICALLY BY 18Z/ FOR ANY LINGERING MIXED PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK
TO JUST -SHSN. LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER
AIR SLIDES IN. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND GET DOWN TO AROUND -17C BY 00Z...AND -20C BY
06Z FRIDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W FAVORED
BY NNW WINDS.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
LOWERING DGZ TO AROUND 4KFT OR LESS BY 06Z FRIDAY...WINDS STILL
GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL KEEP SLR VALUES FROM RISING BACK UP TO
25:1 TOO FAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD AND AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
AROUND 2IN OR LESS ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

ONE CONCERN FOR THE EVENING PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A MESO
LOW SETTING UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER 03Z...KEEPING A
BAND OF MORE MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL/E MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND W ALGER COUNTY. THE NAM AND REGIONAL WRF HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL. HAVE EXPANDED SNOW FARTHER W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS
WELL AS KEPT THE WINDS UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR A BIT LONGER
/WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR/. ENHANCED BY THE
WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON M-28. EVEN WITHOUT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE...DEPENDING ON HOW SOLID
SNOW BANKS ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD HAVE BECOME AND HOW MUCH SNOW HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ICE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME -SN/DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR WITH A FEW HRS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THU MORNING WILL BRING INCREASING...GUSTY NW
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ265-266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 290958
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WV AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW IT WELL...THE DEEP MOISTURE SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI IS QUICKLY EXITING E. THE SFC TROUGH SET UP
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING WILL EDGE TO THE E HALF
OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO NOTICE SOME OF THOSE STRONGER N-NNW WINDS BEGIN /WINDS CURRENTLY
AROUND 12KTS AT CMX WILL BEGIN TO GUSTS 25-30KTS/.

-FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED OFF AND ON THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN BULK OF
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI...AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN NEARS. UTILIZED THE PROBABILITY
OF ICE PRESENT FROM THE RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHEN AND WHERE
-FZDZ MAY SET UP BEFORE COLD AIR PUSHES ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI
/BASICALLY BY 18Z/ FOR ANY LINGERING MIXED PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK
TO JUST -SHSN. LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER
AIR SLIDES IN. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND GET DOWN TO AROUND -17C BY 00Z...AND -20C BY
06Z FRIDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W FAVORED
BY NNW WINDS.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
LOWERING DGZ TO AROUND 4KFT OR LESS BY 06Z FRIDAY...WINDS STILL
GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL KEEP SLR VALUES FROM RISING BACK UP TO
25:1 TOO FAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD AND AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
AROUND 2IN OR LESS ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

ONE CONCERN FOR THE EVENING PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A MESO
LOW SETTING UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER 03Z...KEEPING A
BAND OF MORE MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL/E MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND W ALGER COUNTY. THE NAM AND REGIONAL WRF HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL. HAVE EXPANDED SNOW FARTHER W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS
WELL AS KEPT THE WINDS UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR A BIT LONGER
/WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR/. ENHANCED BY THE
WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON M-28. EVEN WITHOUT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE...DEPENDING ON HOW SOLID
SNOW BANKS ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD HAVE BECOME AND HOW MUCH SNOW HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ICE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME -SN/DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR WITH A FEW HRS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THU MORNING WILL BRING INCREASING...GUSTY NW
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ265-266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 290958
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WV AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW IT WELL...THE DEEP MOISTURE SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI IS QUICKLY EXITING E. THE SFC TROUGH SET UP
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING WILL EDGE TO THE E HALF
OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO NOTICE SOME OF THOSE STRONGER N-NNW WINDS BEGIN /WINDS CURRENTLY
AROUND 12KTS AT CMX WILL BEGIN TO GUSTS 25-30KTS/.

-FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED OFF AND ON THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN BULK OF
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI...AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN NEARS. UTILIZED THE PROBABILITY
OF ICE PRESENT FROM THE RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHEN AND WHERE
-FZDZ MAY SET UP BEFORE COLD AIR PUSHES ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI
/BASICALLY BY 18Z/ FOR ANY LINGERING MIXED PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK
TO JUST -SHSN. LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER
AIR SLIDES IN. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND GET DOWN TO AROUND -17C BY 00Z...AND -20C BY
06Z FRIDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W FAVORED
BY NNW WINDS.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
LOWERING DGZ TO AROUND 4KFT OR LESS BY 06Z FRIDAY...WINDS STILL
GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL KEEP SLR VALUES FROM RISING BACK UP TO
25:1 TOO FAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD AND AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
AROUND 2IN OR LESS ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

ONE CONCERN FOR THE EVENING PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A MESO
LOW SETTING UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER 03Z...KEEPING A
BAND OF MORE MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL/E MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND W ALGER COUNTY. THE NAM AND REGIONAL WRF HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL. HAVE EXPANDED SNOW FARTHER W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS
WELL AS KEPT THE WINDS UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR A BIT LONGER
/WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR/. ENHANCED BY THE
WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON M-28. EVEN WITHOUT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE...DEPENDING ON HOW SOLID
SNOW BANKS ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD HAVE BECOME AND HOW MUCH SNOW HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ICE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME -SN/DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR WITH A FEW HRS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THU MORNING WILL BRING INCREASING...GUSTY NW
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ265-266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 290958
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WV AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW IT WELL...THE DEEP MOISTURE SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI IS QUICKLY EXITING E. THE SFC TROUGH SET UP
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING WILL EDGE TO THE E HALF
OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO NOTICE SOME OF THOSE STRONGER N-NNW WINDS BEGIN /WINDS CURRENTLY
AROUND 12KTS AT CMX WILL BEGIN TO GUSTS 25-30KTS/.

-FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED OFF AND ON THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN BULK OF
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI...AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN NEARS. UTILIZED THE PROBABILITY
OF ICE PRESENT FROM THE RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHEN AND WHERE
-FZDZ MAY SET UP BEFORE COLD AIR PUSHES ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI
/BASICALLY BY 18Z/ FOR ANY LINGERING MIXED PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK
TO JUST -SHSN. LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER
AIR SLIDES IN. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND GET DOWN TO AROUND -17C BY 00Z...AND -20C BY
06Z FRIDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W FAVORED
BY NNW WINDS.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
LOWERING DGZ TO AROUND 4KFT OR LESS BY 06Z FRIDAY...WINDS STILL
GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL KEEP SLR VALUES FROM RISING BACK UP TO
25:1 TOO FAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD AND AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
AROUND 2IN OR LESS ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

ONE CONCERN FOR THE EVENING PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A MESO
LOW SETTING UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER 03Z...KEEPING A
BAND OF MORE MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL/E MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND W ALGER COUNTY. THE NAM AND REGIONAL WRF HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL. HAVE EXPANDED SNOW FARTHER W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS
WELL AS KEPT THE WINDS UP OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR A BIT LONGER
/WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR/. ENHANCED BY THE
WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON M-28. EVEN WITHOUT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE...DEPENDING ON HOW SOLID
SNOW BANKS ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD HAVE BECOME AND HOW MUCH SNOW HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ICE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME -SN/DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR WITH A FEW HRS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THU MORNING WILL BRING INCREASING...GUSTY NW
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ265-266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 290912
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES TO
THE W AND NW. ONE IS MOVING OUT OF WY/CO INTO THE WRN PLAINS AND THE
OTHER IS MOVING FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SRN MANITOBA. AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES...A RIBBON OF STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
SPREADING ESE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET CURVING FROM NRN ONTARIO DOWN
THRU THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A STREAK OF RADAR
RETURNS EXTENDING ESE FROM SE MANITOBA ACROSS ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO
AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/ERN UPPER MI. THE ASCENT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO ERODE DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALLOW SOME -SN TO REACH THE
GROUND FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW INTO THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST
AREA.

PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESE TONIGHT WITH THE NRN
STREAM WAVE THE MORE IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR THE WEATHER HERE. AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 295K SFC INCREASES
TONIGHT...MOST NOTABLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI. WHILE IT WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL STILL AID THE MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS. OVER THE
W...THE WINDOW OF COLUMN MOISTENING IS SHORTER BEFORE THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. THUS...PCPN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE
LIGHTEST OVER THE W AND GREATER OVER THE E. 295K SFC SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE ROUGHLY 6HRS OF ASCENT EXPECTED. 4 INCHES IS LIKELY TOO
HIGH SINCE SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. AS IT
IS...WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSE TO ADVY THRESHOLD OVER THE FAR E...
MAINLY LUCE COUNTY...AS 12HR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM LATE EVENING TO
LATE THU MORNING WILL BE NEAR 3 INCHES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
STEADILY LIGHTER TO THE W...DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FAR W AND ALONG
THE WI BORDER. LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC
SNOW EXIT...LEAVING A LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER THAT HAS TEMPS HIGHER
THAN -10C. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF -FZDZ WHERE WINDS WILL BE
UPSLOPING.

COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS UPPER MI THU MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING
WIND FIELDS...INITIAL CAA IS WEAK AS THERMAL GRADIENT IS DISPLACED
OFF TO THE NW...BUT CAA INCREASES QUICKLY IN THE AFTN. 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -10C IN THE MORNING WILL FALL TO NEAR -20C BY 00Z FRI...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN. LAST
OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL END OVER THE E IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN (-SN/-FZDZ)
DURING THE MORNING AWAY FROM AREAS THAT SEE UPSLOPING UNDER NW
WINDS. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE AFTN...NW/NNW FLOW LES WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH DGZ DROPPING INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY. SO FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY AROUND
1 INCH IN THE AFTN. STRONG WINDS WILL DISPLACE LES A LITTLE FARTHER
INLAND THAN NORMAL. SPEAKING OF WINDS...FAVORABLE POSTIONING OF PRES
RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIVE ISALLOBARIC WIND
COMPONENT. COMBINED WITH 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
40KT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE AROUND THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM BIG BAY
EASTWARD...WINDS WILL PROBABLY GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTN.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY LES INCREASES IN THE AFTN...BLSN COULD
BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE NEAR THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME -SN/DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR WITH A FEW HRS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THU MORNING WILL BRING INCREASING...GUSTY NW
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ265-266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 290912
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES TO
THE W AND NW. ONE IS MOVING OUT OF WY/CO INTO THE WRN PLAINS AND THE
OTHER IS MOVING FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SRN MANITOBA. AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES...A RIBBON OF STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
SPREADING ESE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET CURVING FROM NRN ONTARIO DOWN
THRU THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A STREAK OF RADAR
RETURNS EXTENDING ESE FROM SE MANITOBA ACROSS ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO
AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/ERN UPPER MI. THE ASCENT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO ERODE DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALLOW SOME -SN TO REACH THE
GROUND FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW INTO THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST
AREA.

PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESE TONIGHT WITH THE NRN
STREAM WAVE THE MORE IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR THE WEATHER HERE. AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 295K SFC INCREASES
TONIGHT...MOST NOTABLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI. WHILE IT WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL STILL AID THE MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS. OVER THE
W...THE WINDOW OF COLUMN MOISTENING IS SHORTER BEFORE THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. THUS...PCPN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE
LIGHTEST OVER THE W AND GREATER OVER THE E. 295K SFC SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE ROUGHLY 6HRS OF ASCENT EXPECTED. 4 INCHES IS LIKELY TOO
HIGH SINCE SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. AS IT
IS...WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSE TO ADVY THRESHOLD OVER THE FAR E...
MAINLY LUCE COUNTY...AS 12HR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM LATE EVENING TO
LATE THU MORNING WILL BE NEAR 3 INCHES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
STEADILY LIGHTER TO THE W...DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FAR W AND ALONG
THE WI BORDER. LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC
SNOW EXIT...LEAVING A LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER THAT HAS TEMPS HIGHER
THAN -10C. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF -FZDZ WHERE WINDS WILL BE
UPSLOPING.

COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS UPPER MI THU MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING
WIND FIELDS...INITIAL CAA IS WEAK AS THERMAL GRADIENT IS DISPLACED
OFF TO THE NW...BUT CAA INCREASES QUICKLY IN THE AFTN. 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -10C IN THE MORNING WILL FALL TO NEAR -20C BY 00Z FRI...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN. LAST
OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL END OVER THE E IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN (-SN/-FZDZ)
DURING THE MORNING AWAY FROM AREAS THAT SEE UPSLOPING UNDER NW
WINDS. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE AFTN...NW/NNW FLOW LES WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH DGZ DROPPING INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY. SO FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY AROUND
1 INCH IN THE AFTN. STRONG WINDS WILL DISPLACE LES A LITTLE FARTHER
INLAND THAN NORMAL. SPEAKING OF WINDS...FAVORABLE POSTIONING OF PRES
RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIVE ISALLOBARIC WIND
COMPONENT. COMBINED WITH 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
40KT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE AROUND THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM BIG BAY
EASTWARD...WINDS WILL PROBABLY GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTN.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY LES INCREASES IN THE AFTN...BLSN COULD
BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE NEAR THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL BE ON THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A MEAN UPR
TROF IN ERN NAMERICA. UNDER THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEADY FEED OF CNDN AIR. WITH THE COLD AIR SURGES...LES WL BE AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BE 00Z SAT. AS NW WINDS IN THE MRNG BACK TO THE W AND THEN
THE SW LATE...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF GRAND
MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE MOVING INTO
NW MN AT 00Z SAT AND IS THEN FCST TO SLIDE SE THRU NCENTRAL WI BY
12Z SAT AND THEN ACROSS LOWER MI ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV WL BE MOVNG FM CENTRAL CANADA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING TO JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. UPR MI WL
BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF
RELATIVELY WEAK QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI
NGT INTO SAT MRNG ON THE CYC SIDE OF THIS SRN SHRTWV...ACCOMPANYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR INFLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO WL
FCST ONLY CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND MAINLY BTWN 03Z SAT AND
15-18Z SAT...WHEN THE FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SRN SHRTWV AND A COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN SHRTWV ARE FCST TO EXIT THE ERN CWA AND
GIVE WAY TO SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. MAINTAINED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE STRONGER NRN
SHRTWV AND WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ACCOMPANY THE SAT COLD FROPA.
THE COLDEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT COLD FROPA PLUNGING AS LO AS -25C BY 00Z SUN...BUT QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ACYC H925 N FLOW AND INVRN BASE
FALLING TO H85-875 WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. RELATIVELY
MODERATE TEMPS INTO SAT MRNG WL FALL THRU THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE STEADY N FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDG SEWD IN SCENTRAL CANADA.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COLD N
BACKING WNW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING FM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z SUN INTO THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z MON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND LES TO
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NOT FAR FM -22C
TO -25C. SAT NGT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E WITH THE N
H925 FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE
OF THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY LO H85 TEMPS WL LIMIT LES
AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED CNVGC
ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF STRETCHING FM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD WHITEFISH
PT THAT WL INTENSIFY AS THE LARGER PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW APRCHS ON SUN/SUN NGT. RAISED POPS
WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TO LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS.

MON...LES ALONG THE LK INDUCED TROF WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP WITH THE APRCH OF A SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACKING LLVL
FLOW. BUT THE MORE W WIND COMPONENT WL MEAN LESS LK MODERATION AND
PERSISTENT WELL BLO NORMAL SFC TEMPS EVEN AS THE H85 TEMPS MODERATE
A BIT FASTER.

TUE/WED...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR -15C IN THE WAA BTWN THIS FEATURE AND HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW ON WED AS THE SHRTWV PASSAGE REAMPLIFIES THE ERN TROF AND THE
NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CNDN HI SINKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ADVECTS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME -SN/DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR WITH A FEW HRS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THU MORNING WILL BRING INCREASING...GUSTY NW
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ265-266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290855
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES TO
THE W AND NW. ONE IS MOVING OUT OF WY/CO INTO THE WRN PLAINS AND THE
OTHER IS MOVING FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SRN MANITOBA. AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES...A RIBBON OF STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
SPREADING ESE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET CURVING FROM NRN ONTARIO DOWN
THRU THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A STREAK OF RADAR
RETURNS EXTENDING ESE FROM SE MANITOBA ACROSS ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO
AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/ERN UPPER MI. THE ASCENT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO ERODE DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALLOW SOME -SN TO REACH THE
GROUND FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW INTO THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST
AREA.

PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESE TONIGHT WITH THE NRN
STREAM WAVE THE MORE IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR THE WEATHER HERE. AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 295K SFC INCREASES
TONIGHT...MOST NOTABLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI. WHILE IT WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL STILL AID THE MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS. OVER THE
W...THE WINDOW OF COLUMN MOISTENING IS SHORTER BEFORE THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. THUS...PCPN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE
LIGHTEST OVER THE W AND GREATER OVER THE E. 295K SFC SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE ROUGHLY 6HRS OF ASCENT EXPECTED. 4 INCHES IS LIKELY TOO
HIGH SINCE SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. AS IT
IS...WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSE TO ADVY THRESHOLD OVER THE FAR E...
MAINLY LUCE COUNTY...AS 12HR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM LATE EVENING TO
LATE THU MORNING WILL BE NEAR 3 INCHES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
STEADILY LIGHTER TO THE W...DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FAR W AND ALONG
THE WI BORDER. LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC
SNOW EXIT...LEAVING A LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER THAT HAS TEMPS HIGHER
THAN -10C. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF -FZDZ WHERE WINDS WILL BE
UPSLOPING.

COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS UPPER MI THU MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING
WIND FIELDS...INITIAL CAA IS WEAK AS THERMAL GRADIENT IS DISPLACED
OFF TO THE NW...BUT CAA INCREASES QUICKLY IN THE AFTN. 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -10C IN THE MORNING WILL FALL TO NEAR -20C BY 00Z FRI...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN. LAST
OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL END OVER THE E IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN (-SN/-FZDZ)
DURING THE MORNING AWAY FROM AREAS THAT SEE UPSLOPING UNDER NW
WINDS. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE AFTN...NW/NNW FLOW LES WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH DGZ DROPPING INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY. SO FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY AROUND
1 INCH IN THE AFTN. STRONG WINDS WILL DISPLACE LES A LITTLE FARTHER
INLAND THAN NORMAL. SPEAKING OF WINDS...FAVORABLE POSTIONING OF PRES
RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIVE ISALLOBARIC WIND
COMPONENT. COMBINED WITH 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
40KT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE AROUND THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM BIG BAY
EASTWARD...WINDS WILL PROBABLY GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTN.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY LES INCREASES IN THE AFTN...BLSN COULD
BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE NEAR THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z FRI...WITH MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED FORCING E OF THE CWA BY THAT TIME. NW-NNW LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -22C WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE NW-
NNW WINDS SNOWBELTS THU NIGHT...BUT A SFC RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH ON
FRI WILL LEAD TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE LES AS WINDS BECOME ANTI-
CYCLONIC. WINDS TURN SWLY BY FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AND AHEAD
OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT. NW WIND LES WILL RAMP UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH AS 850MB WINDS AS LOW AS -30C SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
LOOK TO MODERATE SOME MON INTO TUE AS A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH...WITH
ANOTHER COLD BLAST SHOWN BY MODELS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

OVER THE NEXT WEEK THE NW WINDS SNOWBELTS MAINLY E OF MARQUETTE WILL
SEE THE MOST SNOWFALL...WITH PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL.
WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS... GROWTH WILL BE ADVERSELY
IMPACTED...WITH SMALL SNOW FLAKES EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VIS THE
PREDOMINANT CONDITION.

COLD TEMPS ARE A CERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON WHEN HIGHS WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME -SN/DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR WITH A FEW HRS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THU MORNING WILL BRING INCREASING...GUSTY NW
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ265-266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 290855
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES TO
THE W AND NW. ONE IS MOVING OUT OF WY/CO INTO THE WRN PLAINS AND THE
OTHER IS MOVING FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SRN MANITOBA. AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES...A RIBBON OF STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
SPREADING ESE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET CURVING FROM NRN ONTARIO DOWN
THRU THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A STREAK OF RADAR
RETURNS EXTENDING ESE FROM SE MANITOBA ACROSS ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO
AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/ERN UPPER MI. THE ASCENT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO ERODE DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALLOW SOME -SN TO REACH THE
GROUND FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW INTO THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST
AREA.

PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESE TONIGHT WITH THE NRN
STREAM WAVE THE MORE IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR THE WEATHER HERE. AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 295K SFC INCREASES
TONIGHT...MOST NOTABLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI. WHILE IT WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL STILL AID THE MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS. OVER THE
W...THE WINDOW OF COLUMN MOISTENING IS SHORTER BEFORE THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. THUS...PCPN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE
LIGHTEST OVER THE W AND GREATER OVER THE E. 295K SFC SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE ROUGHLY 6HRS OF ASCENT EXPECTED. 4 INCHES IS LIKELY TOO
HIGH SINCE SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. AS IT
IS...WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSE TO ADVY THRESHOLD OVER THE FAR E...
MAINLY LUCE COUNTY...AS 12HR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM LATE EVENING TO
LATE THU MORNING WILL BE NEAR 3 INCHES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
STEADILY LIGHTER TO THE W...DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FAR W AND ALONG
THE WI BORDER. LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC
SNOW EXIT...LEAVING A LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER THAT HAS TEMPS HIGHER
THAN -10C. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF -FZDZ WHERE WINDS WILL BE
UPSLOPING.

COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS UPPER MI THU MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING
WIND FIELDS...INITIAL CAA IS WEAK AS THERMAL GRADIENT IS DISPLACED
OFF TO THE NW...BUT CAA INCREASES QUICKLY IN THE AFTN. 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -10C IN THE MORNING WILL FALL TO NEAR -20C BY 00Z FRI...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN. LAST
OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL END OVER THE E IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN (-SN/-FZDZ)
DURING THE MORNING AWAY FROM AREAS THAT SEE UPSLOPING UNDER NW
WINDS. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE AFTN...NW/NNW FLOW LES WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH DGZ DROPPING INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY. SO FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY AROUND
1 INCH IN THE AFTN. STRONG WINDS WILL DISPLACE LES A LITTLE FARTHER
INLAND THAN NORMAL. SPEAKING OF WINDS...FAVORABLE POSTIONING OF PRES
RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIVE ISALLOBARIC WIND
COMPONENT. COMBINED WITH 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
40KT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE AROUND THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM BIG BAY
EASTWARD...WINDS WILL PROBABLY GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTN.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY LES INCREASES IN THE AFTN...BLSN COULD
BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE NEAR THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z FRI...WITH MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED FORCING E OF THE CWA BY THAT TIME. NW-NNW LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -22C WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE NW-
NNW WINDS SNOWBELTS THU NIGHT...BUT A SFC RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH ON
FRI WILL LEAD TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE LES AS WINDS BECOME ANTI-
CYCLONIC. WINDS TURN SWLY BY FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AND AHEAD
OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT. NW WIND LES WILL RAMP UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH AS 850MB WINDS AS LOW AS -30C SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
LOOK TO MODERATE SOME MON INTO TUE AS A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH...WITH
ANOTHER COLD BLAST SHOWN BY MODELS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

OVER THE NEXT WEEK THE NW WINDS SNOWBELTS MAINLY E OF MARQUETTE WILL
SEE THE MOST SNOWFALL...WITH PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL.
WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS... GROWTH WILL BE ADVERSELY
IMPACTED...WITH SMALL SNOW FLAKES EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VIS THE
PREDOMINANT CONDITION.

COLD TEMPS ARE A CERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON WHEN HIGHS WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME -SN/DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR WITH A FEW HRS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THU MORNING WILL BRING INCREASING...GUSTY NW
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR N LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEAR CHICAGO SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE INTO MN ON FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...STRONG N-NNW GALES GUSTING 35 TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS REMAINING 25-30KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...AND COLDER AIR SURGING IN...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS SAME AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LESS
THAN 30KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW N TO NW GUSTS OF 30
TO NEAR 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY TO MOVE SE INTO
THE N PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ265-266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290842
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST...

TWO SFC LOW PRESSURES WILL BRING DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWS TO THE
AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO LOWS WILL INTERACT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH LOW
SNOWFALL RATES LESS THAN A HALF INCH PER HOUR. THE BETTER SNOWS
ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR APN BETWEEN 12-18Z. STILL 2
INCHES THERE...AND MAYBE 1 INCH ACROSS NW LOWER. OPTED TO LEAVE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CIG HEIGHTS. TREND IS FOR DELAYING
THE IFR/MVFR.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AN MAY PROVIDE A
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. THEN...LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NW LOWER. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS TVC WITH HALF INCH
MBL/APN...LESS THAN THAT AT PLN. TYPICAL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 290842
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST...

TWO SFC LOW PRESSURES WILL BRING DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWS TO THE
AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO LOWS WILL INTERACT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH LOW
SNOWFALL RATES LESS THAN A HALF INCH PER HOUR. THE BETTER SNOWS
ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR APN BETWEEN 12-18Z. STILL 2
INCHES THERE...AND MAYBE 1 INCH ACROSS NW LOWER. OPTED TO LEAVE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CIG HEIGHTS. TREND IS FOR DELAYING
THE IFR/MVFR.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AN MAY PROVIDE A
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. THEN...LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NW LOWER. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS TVC WITH HALF INCH
MBL/APN...LESS THAN THAT AT PLN. TYPICAL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290818
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAFS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN
ICING EVENT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. EXPECT MODERATE ICING BETWEEN THE SFC AND
3000 FT AND ALSO BETWEEN 8000 AND 18000 FT. TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
3000 FT AND 8000 FT SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN THAT LAYER. LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS AFTER 15Z-
18Z THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO PRECIP CHANGING TO MOSTLY ALL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER ISSUE IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT
WITH 50 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 2000-4000 FT AGL
LAYER AND SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 12-16 KTS.

EXPECT NUMEROUS IFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY AS
THE SFC LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS MI. CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING AFTER
18Z THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHIFTING/INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 15-25 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DEVELOPING.

RADAR MOSAIC AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN/ERN IL
SHIFTING THIS WAY. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THIS
AREA WILL EXPAND AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER SW LWR MI THROUGH
09Z. HOWEVER IT STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE JUST HOW PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN
WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLY MIXED IN FOR THE AZO/BTL/JXN TERMINALS
AND I-94 CORRIDOR REGION. MEANWHILE THE MKG/GRR/LAN TERMINALS ARE
CLOSER TO THE TRANSITION ZONE TO MOSTLY SNOW WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
NORTH OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR. SUSPECT THESE TERMINALS WILL SEE MORE
IN THE WAY OF A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE... WITH LESS
FREEZING RAIN THAN TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ037-043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO









000
FXUS63 KGRR 290818
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF INCH OF ICE BY MID DAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...IT WILL COOL TO ONLY
AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MORE SNOW.  EITHER WAY...IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE AS IS.  THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST DAY AS WE WILL SEE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE PCPN
TODAY.  AS OF 08Z WE WERE SEEING AN AREA OF MIXED PCPN MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WAS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  IT WAS A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND THAT WAS MOVING NE AT 30 KNOTS.  SO THIS WON/T BE
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT ENOUGH TO
PUT DOWN A LIGHT GLAZE AND IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT APPEARS WE WILL THAN HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PCPN AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME MIX STILL
ALONG I-94.  FINALLY...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED.  THE
NORTHERN CWA APPEARS SETUP BEST FOR THIS AS SOME OMEGA IS STILL SEEN
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER.  THE FZDZ COULD LAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT COMES AN END.  ALL-IN-ALL A MESSY DAY.
HOWEVER ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG I-96...
AND UP TO TWO INCHES TOWARD HIGHWAY 10.

WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS -15C H8 AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE 318-330 WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.  INVERSION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW...4500 FT OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY.  AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED HERE...WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.  IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WITH LOWS OF 10 TO
15 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE NW CWA AS IT COMES IN.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPS APPROACH 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS/QPF
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BEST PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-96...IF NOT SOUTH OF I-94.

NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS PORTRAYED MORE AGGRESSIVELY BY THE GFS THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE 29/00Z ECMWF DOWN TO -25C AT 850
MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATLY CURTAILED BY UNFAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY COLD AIR. ADVERTISED HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF THE ECWMF TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAFS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN
ICING EVENT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. EXPECT MODERATE ICING BETWEEN THE SFC AND
3000 FT AND ALSO BETWEEN 8000 AND 18000 FT. TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
3000 FT AND 8000 FT SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN THAT LAYER. LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS AFTER 15Z-
18Z THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO PRECIP CHANGING TO MOSTLY ALL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER ISSUE IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT
WITH 50 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 2000-4000 FT AGL
LAYER AND SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 12-16 KTS.

EXPECT NUMEROUS IFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY AS
THE SFC LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS MI. CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING AFTER
18Z THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHIFTING/INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 15-25 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DEVELOPING.

RADAR MOSAIC AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN/ERN IL
SHIFTING THIS WAY. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THIS
AREA WILL EXPAND AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER SW LWR MI THROUGH
09Z. HOWEVER IT STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE JUST HOW PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN
WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLY MIXED IN FOR THE AZO/BTL/JXN TERMINALS
AND I-94 CORRIDOR REGION. MEANWHILE THE MKG/GRR/LAN TERMINALS ARE
CLOSER TO THE TRANSITION ZONE TO MOSTLY SNOW WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
NORTH OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR. SUSPECT THESE TERMINALS WILL SEE MORE
IN THE WAY OF A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE... WITH LESS
FREEZING RAIN THAN TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ037-043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO










000
FXUS63 KDTX 290742
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
242 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z KDTX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER IN PLACE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 750 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS KEPT A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS THE MAIN SYSTEM ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

FORCING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL PROGRESS
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM ITS CURRENTLY POSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...BETWEEN
THE DRY LOW LEVELS STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW...AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TRAILING THIS FEATURE INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA MAY RECEIVE 3 OR 4 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SLEET
OR SNOW...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO METRO DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH...A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SLEET WILL CROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...ANY LIQUID THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST
LIKELY FREEZE ON SURFACES. AT THIS TIME...ONLY PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THE THE PRECIPITATION.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN AOA FREEZING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD FROM
METRO DETROIT TO THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREE OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW/MID TEENS I-94 SOUTH. ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUTTED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
IN ALBERTA THIS MORNING IS INTENSIFYING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. COLLAPSE OF UPPER SUPPORT
DUE TO INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL FORCE THE
HIGH TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT NW GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL EASE AS THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES THE AREA, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR -17C, HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH AND DRY NW FLOW, SUPPORTED BY
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE 00Z NAM, SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NW
WHERE LAKE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
MORE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK. FOR THIS SAME REASON, LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINING IN THE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

A MOISTURE STARVED WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE,
WHICH HAS YET TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP, IS FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW LATE TONIGHT AND COME
ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY SHEAR TO SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT TO SOME DEGREE WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA.

WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER A WIDE AREA GIVEN GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 4-5 G/KG H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY COURTESY OF
SOUTHERN STREAM INVOLVEMENT. THE KEY PLAYER IN THE LOCAL FORECAST
WILL BE JUST HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS OVER MONTANA,
WYOMING, AND COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER THE
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW, THE GREATER SNOW PROSPECTS BECOME.
AS IT STANDS, THE NAM AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS SO AND CONFINE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO STILL MADE
NOTEWORTHY MOVES TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT 00Z IN
COMPARISON TO THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTH/SOUTH SOLUTIONS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TWO
CONTROL RUNS REMAINING RIGHT IN BETWEEN AND CENTERING THE ACTION
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN THAT THE S/W HAS YET TO EMERGE, TYPICAL
NWP PROBLEMS WITH CLOSED LOWS, AND GENERAL LOW MEDIUM RANGE
PREDICTABILITY THIS WINTER, WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE BLENDED EXTENDED
GRIDS TO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS GIVEN THE STABILITY OF WARM SOUTH FLOW. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG GALES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITH HIGHER MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. CONSIDERABLE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
CONDITIONS AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CEILINGS AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS LOW LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW TO THE
REGION STARTING ROUGHLY AROUND 12Z. AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
FORCING AND A COLDER THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS ALL SNOW AT
MBS...STARTING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 09Z. COLD AIR WRAPPING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK
OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE WINDING DOWN
DURING THURSDAY EVENING. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT FNT
AND MBS...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO
AIRPORTS. VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTHWARD.

FOR DTW...CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR ALOFT FORECAST TO
OVERSPREAD METRO DETROIT...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START MAINLY AS
FREEZING RAIN. IT SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO PURE RAIN DURING THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 10Z.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIP TYPE STARTING AS A FZRA/IP MIX THIS MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 290742
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
242 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z KDTX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER IN PLACE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 750 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS KEPT A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS THE MAIN SYSTEM ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

FORCING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL PROGRESS
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM ITS CURRENTLY POSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...BETWEEN
THE DRY LOW LEVELS STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW...AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TRAILING THIS FEATURE INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA MAY RECEIVE 3 OR 4 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SLEET
OR SNOW...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO METRO DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH...A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SLEET WILL CROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...ANY LIQUID THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST
LIKELY FREEZE ON SURFACES. AT THIS TIME...ONLY PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THE THE PRECIPITATION.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN AOA FREEZING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD FROM
METRO DETROIT TO THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREE OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW/MID TEENS I-94 SOUTH. ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUTTED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
IN ALBERTA THIS MORNING IS INTENSIFYING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. COLLAPSE OF UPPER SUPPORT
DUE TO INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL FORCE THE
HIGH TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT NW GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL EASE AS THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES THE AREA, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR -17C, HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH AND DRY NW FLOW, SUPPORTED BY
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE 00Z NAM, SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NW
WHERE LAKE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
MORE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK. FOR THIS SAME REASON, LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINING IN THE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

A MOISTURE STARVED WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE,
WHICH HAS YET TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP, IS FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW LATE TONIGHT AND COME
ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY SHEAR TO SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT TO SOME DEGREE WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA.

WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER A WIDE AREA GIVEN GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 4-5 G/KG H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY COURTESY OF
SOUTHERN STREAM INVOLVEMENT. THE KEY PLAYER IN THE LOCAL FORECAST
WILL BE JUST HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS OVER MONTANA,
WYOMING, AND COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER THE
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW, THE GREATER SNOW PROSPECTS BECOME.
AS IT STANDS, THE NAM AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS SO AND CONFINE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO STILL MADE
NOTEWORTHY MOVES TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT 00Z IN
COMPARISON TO THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTH/SOUTH SOLUTIONS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TWO
CONTROL RUNS REMAINING RIGHT IN BETWEEN AND CENTERING THE ACTION
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN THAT THE S/W HAS YET TO EMERGE, TYPICAL
NWP PROBLEMS WITH CLOSED LOWS, AND GENERAL LOW MEDIUM RANGE
PREDICTABILITY THIS WINTER, WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE BLENDED EXTENDED
GRIDS TO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS GIVEN THE STABILITY OF WARM SOUTH FLOW. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG GALES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITH HIGHER MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. CONSIDERABLE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
CONDITIONS AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CEILINGS AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS LOW LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW TO THE
REGION STARTING ROUGHLY AROUND 12Z. AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
FORCING AND A COLDER THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS ALL SNOW AT
MBS...STARTING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 09Z. COLD AIR WRAPPING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK
OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE WINDING DOWN
DURING THURSDAY EVENING. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT FNT
AND MBS...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO
AIRPORTS. VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTHWARD.

FOR DTW...CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR ALOFT FORECAST TO
OVERSPREAD METRO DETROIT...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START MAINLY AS
FREEZING RAIN. IT SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO PURE RAIN DURING THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 10Z.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIP TYPE STARTING AS A FZRA/IP MIX THIS MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 290742
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
242 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z KDTX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER IN PLACE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 750 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS KEPT A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS THE MAIN SYSTEM ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

FORCING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL PROGRESS
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM ITS CURRENTLY POSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...BETWEEN
THE DRY LOW LEVELS STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW...AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TRAILING THIS FEATURE INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA MAY RECEIVE 3 OR 4 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SLEET
OR SNOW...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO METRO DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH...A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SLEET WILL CROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...ANY LIQUID THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST
LIKELY FREEZE ON SURFACES. AT THIS TIME...ONLY PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THE THE PRECIPITATION.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN AOA FREEZING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD FROM
METRO DETROIT TO THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREE OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW/MID TEENS I-94 SOUTH. ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUTTED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
IN ALBERTA THIS MORNING IS INTENSIFYING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. COLLAPSE OF UPPER SUPPORT
DUE TO INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL FORCE THE
HIGH TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT NW GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL EASE AS THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES THE AREA, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR -17C, HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH AND DRY NW FLOW, SUPPORTED BY
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE 00Z NAM, SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NW
WHERE LAKE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
MORE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK. FOR THIS SAME REASON, LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINING IN THE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

A MOISTURE STARVED WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE,
WHICH HAS YET TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP, IS FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW LATE TONIGHT AND COME
ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY SHEAR TO SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT TO SOME DEGREE WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA.

WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER A WIDE AREA GIVEN GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 4-5 G/KG H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY COURTESY OF
SOUTHERN STREAM INVOLVEMENT. THE KEY PLAYER IN THE LOCAL FORECAST
WILL BE JUST HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS OVER MONTANA,
WYOMING, AND COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER THE
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW, THE GREATER SNOW PROSPECTS BECOME.
AS IT STANDS, THE NAM AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS SO AND CONFINE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO STILL MADE
NOTEWORTHY MOVES TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT 00Z IN
COMPARISON TO THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTH/SOUTH SOLUTIONS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TWO
CONTROL RUNS REMAINING RIGHT IN BETWEEN AND CENTERING THE ACTION
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN THAT THE S/W HAS YET TO EMERGE, TYPICAL
NWP PROBLEMS WITH CLOSED LOWS, AND GENERAL LOW MEDIUM RANGE
PREDICTABILITY THIS WINTER, WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE BLENDED EXTENDED
GRIDS TO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS GIVEN THE STABILITY OF WARM SOUTH FLOW. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG GALES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITH HIGHER MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. CONSIDERABLE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
CONDITIONS AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CEILINGS AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS LOW LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW TO THE
REGION STARTING ROUGHLY AROUND 12Z. AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
FORCING AND A COLDER THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS ALL SNOW AT
MBS...STARTING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 09Z. COLD AIR WRAPPING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK
OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE WINDING DOWN
DURING THURSDAY EVENING. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT FNT
AND MBS...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO
AIRPORTS. VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTHWARD.

FOR DTW...CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR ALOFT FORECAST TO
OVERSPREAD METRO DETROIT...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START MAINLY AS
FREEZING RAIN. IT SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO PURE RAIN DURING THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 10Z.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIP TYPE STARTING AS A FZRA/IP MIX THIS MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 290742
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
242 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z KDTX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER IN PLACE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 750 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS KEPT A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS THE MAIN SYSTEM ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

FORCING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL PROGRESS
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM ITS CURRENTLY POSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...BETWEEN
THE DRY LOW LEVELS STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW...AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TRAILING THIS FEATURE INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA MAY RECEIVE 3 OR 4 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SLEET
OR SNOW...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO METRO DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH...A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SLEET WILL CROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...ANY LIQUID THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST
LIKELY FREEZE ON SURFACES. AT THIS TIME...ONLY PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THE THE PRECIPITATION.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN AOA FREEZING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD FROM
METRO DETROIT TO THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREE OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW/MID TEENS I-94 SOUTH. ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUTTED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
IN ALBERTA THIS MORNING IS INTENSIFYING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. COLLAPSE OF UPPER SUPPORT
DUE TO INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL FORCE THE
HIGH TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT NW GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL EASE AS THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES THE AREA, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR -17C, HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH AND DRY NW FLOW, SUPPORTED BY
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE 00Z NAM, SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NW
WHERE LAKE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
MORE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK. FOR THIS SAME REASON, LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINING IN THE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

A MOISTURE STARVED WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE,
WHICH HAS YET TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP, IS FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW LATE TONIGHT AND COME
ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY SHEAR TO SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT TO SOME DEGREE WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA.

WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER A WIDE AREA GIVEN GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 4-5 G/KG H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY COURTESY OF
SOUTHERN STREAM INVOLVEMENT. THE KEY PLAYER IN THE LOCAL FORECAST
WILL BE JUST HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS OVER MONTANA,
WYOMING, AND COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER THE
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW, THE GREATER SNOW PROSPECTS BECOME.
AS IT STANDS, THE NAM AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS SO AND CONFINE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO STILL MADE
NOTEWORTHY MOVES TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT 00Z IN
COMPARISON TO THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTH/SOUTH SOLUTIONS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TWO
CONTROL RUNS REMAINING RIGHT IN BETWEEN AND CENTERING THE ACTION
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN THAT THE S/W HAS YET TO EMERGE, TYPICAL
NWP PROBLEMS WITH CLOSED LOWS, AND GENERAL LOW MEDIUM RANGE
PREDICTABILITY THIS WINTER, WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE BLENDED EXTENDED
GRIDS TO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS GIVEN THE STABILITY OF WARM SOUTH FLOW. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG GALES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITH HIGHER MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. CONSIDERABLE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
CONDITIONS AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CEILINGS AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS LOW LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW TO THE
REGION STARTING ROUGHLY AROUND 12Z. AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
FORCING AND A COLDER THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS ALL SNOW AT
MBS...STARTING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 09Z. COLD AIR WRAPPING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK
OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE WINDING DOWN
DURING THURSDAY EVENING. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT FNT
AND MBS...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO
AIRPORTS. VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTHWARD.

FOR DTW...CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR ALOFT FORECAST TO
OVERSPREAD METRO DETROIT...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START MAINLY AS
FREEZING RAIN. IT SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO PURE RAIN DURING THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 10Z.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIP TYPE STARTING AS A FZRA/IP MIX THIS MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421-441-462.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-
     443-463-464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290621
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
121 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOME LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST...

TWO SFC LOW PRESSURES WILL BRING DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWS TO THE
AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO LOWS WILL INTERACT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH LOW
SNOWFALL RATES LESS THAN A HALF INCH PER HOUR. THE BETTER SNOWS
ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR APN BETWEEN 12-18Z. STILL 2
INCHES THERE...AND MAYBE 1 INCH ACROSS NW LOWER. OPTED TO LEAVE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CIG HEIGHTS. TREND IS FOR DELAYING
THE IFR/MVFR.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AN MAY PROVIDE A
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. THEN...LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NW LOWER. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS TVC WITH HALF INCH
MBL/APN...LESS THAN THAT AT PLN. TYPICAL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290621
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
121 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOME LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST...

TWO SFC LOW PRESSURES WILL BRING DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWS TO THE
AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO LOWS WILL INTERACT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH LOW
SNOWFALL RATES LESS THAN A HALF INCH PER HOUR. THE BETTER SNOWS
ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR APN BETWEEN 12-18Z. STILL 2
INCHES THERE...AND MAYBE 1 INCH ACROSS NW LOWER. OPTED TO LEAVE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CIG HEIGHTS. TREND IS FOR DELAYING
THE IFR/MVFR.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AN MAY PROVIDE A
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. THEN...LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NW LOWER. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS TVC WITH HALF INCH
MBL/APN...LESS THAN THAT AT PLN. TYPICAL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD



000
FXUS63 KGRR 290515
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ROADS COULD BE ICY ON THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATIONS AN
INCH OR LESS. IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A RAPID INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES ALONG WITH DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06-09Z. PCPN TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG I-94. ALSO FREEZING
AND SLEET ALONG I-96 WHICH MAY START CHANGING OVER THE SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AND SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET TOWARD HIGHWAY 10. THE
PEAK OF THE PCPN WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

KEPT THE HEADLINES AS IS. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE ICY ROADS FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY AND
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. AS THE VERY WARM AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS
ADVECTS EAST WE WILL SEE 850 MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C FOR BY 06Z FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE START OFF VERY DRY SO TEMPS WILL
DROP AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND WE COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE PRECIP GOES OVER TO IP AND FZRA. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH QPF SO ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE POTENTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MORNING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS SHOULD
WARM AS ANY FREEZING PRECIP BRINGS LATENT HEAT EFFECTS THAT ARE NOT
BEING OFFSET BY CAA NEAR THE SFC. SO EXPECT ICING ISSUES TO END
DURING THE MORNING. SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS AFTER 18Z WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING BACK TO
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH ACCUMULATION ON
ROADS...SO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

SYNOPTIC SNOWS END BY EVENING WITH SOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AOB 5KFT DURING THE EVENING SO LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

OVERALL MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUGGESTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL END
UP WITH LESS PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH RES EURO
SUGGESTS A DRY FORECAST IS THE WAY TO GO FOR SUNDAY.  NOT READY TO
DROP POPS COMPLETELY...BUT THE PATTERN WE ARE IN HAS BEEN A DRY
ONE.  AS A RESULT I WILL LOWER POPS ON SUNDAY AND BACK OFF ON THE
QPF CONSIDERABLY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED FOR
TUESDAY.  WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...THAT SHOULD SUPPORT A
SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT. POPS WERE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS.

I DID LOWER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY GIVEN
THE DOMINANCE OF THE ARCTIC AIR.  THE MODELS COMMONLY ARE TOO WARM
WITH THE NIGHTTIME LOWS DURING THESE EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAFS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN
ICING EVENT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. EXPECT MODERATE ICING BETWEEN THE SFC AND
3000 FT AND ALSO BETWEEN 8000 AND 18000 FT. TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
3000 FT AND 8000 FT SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN THAT LAYER. LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS AFTER 15Z-
18Z THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO PRECIP CHANGING TO MOSTLY ALL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER ISSUE IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT
WITH 50 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 2000-4000 FT AGL
LAYER AND SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 12-16 KTS.

EXPECT NUMEROUS IFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY AS
THE SFC LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS MI. CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING AFTER
18Z THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHIFTING/INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 15-25 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DEVELOPING.

RADAR MOSAIC AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN/ERN IL
SHIFTING THIS WAY. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THIS
AREA WILL EXPAND AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER SW LWR MI THROUGH
09Z. HOWEVER IT STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE JUST HOW PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN
WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLY MIXED IN FOR THE AZO/BTL/JXN TERMINALS
AND I-94 CORRIDOR REGION. MEANWHILE THE MKG/GRR/LAN TERMINALS ARE
CLOSER TO THE TRANSITION ZONE TO MOSTLY SNOW WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
NORTH OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR. SUSPECT THESE TERMINALS WILL SEE MORE
IN THE WAY OF A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE... WITH LESS
FREEZING RAIN THAN TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 290515
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ROADS COULD BE ICY ON THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATIONS AN
INCH OR LESS. IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A RAPID INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES ALONG WITH DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06-09Z. PCPN TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG I-94. ALSO FREEZING
AND SLEET ALONG I-96 WHICH MAY START CHANGING OVER THE SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AND SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET TOWARD HIGHWAY 10. THE
PEAK OF THE PCPN WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

KEPT THE HEADLINES AS IS. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE ICY ROADS FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY AND
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. AS THE VERY WARM AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS
ADVECTS EAST WE WILL SEE 850 MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C FOR BY 06Z FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE START OFF VERY DRY SO TEMPS WILL
DROP AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND WE COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE PRECIP GOES OVER TO IP AND FZRA. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH QPF SO ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE POTENTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MORNING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS SHOULD
WARM AS ANY FREEZING PRECIP BRINGS LATENT HEAT EFFECTS THAT ARE NOT
BEING OFFSET BY CAA NEAR THE SFC. SO EXPECT ICING ISSUES TO END
DURING THE MORNING. SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS AFTER 18Z WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING BACK TO
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH ACCUMULATION ON
ROADS...SO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

SYNOPTIC SNOWS END BY EVENING WITH SOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AOB 5KFT DURING THE EVENING SO LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

OVERALL MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUGGESTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL END
UP WITH LESS PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH RES EURO
SUGGESTS A DRY FORECAST IS THE WAY TO GO FOR SUNDAY.  NOT READY TO
DROP POPS COMPLETELY...BUT THE PATTERN WE ARE IN HAS BEEN A DRY
ONE.  AS A RESULT I WILL LOWER POPS ON SUNDAY AND BACK OFF ON THE
QPF CONSIDERABLY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED FOR
TUESDAY.  WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...THAT SHOULD SUPPORT A
SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT. POPS WERE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS.

I DID LOWER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY GIVEN
THE DOMINANCE OF THE ARCTIC AIR.  THE MODELS COMMONLY ARE TOO WARM
WITH THE NIGHTTIME LOWS DURING THESE EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAFS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN
ICING EVENT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. EXPECT MODERATE ICING BETWEEN THE SFC AND
3000 FT AND ALSO BETWEEN 8000 AND 18000 FT. TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
3000 FT AND 8000 FT SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN THAT LAYER. LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS AFTER 15Z-
18Z THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO PRECIP CHANGING TO MOSTLY ALL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER ISSUE IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT
WITH 50 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 2000-4000 FT AGL
LAYER AND SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 12-16 KTS.

EXPECT NUMEROUS IFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY AS
THE SFC LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS MI. CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING AFTER
18Z THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHIFTING/INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 15-25 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DEVELOPING.

RADAR MOSAIC AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN/ERN IL
SHIFTING THIS WAY. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THIS
AREA WILL EXPAND AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER SW LWR MI THROUGH
09Z. HOWEVER IT STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE JUST HOW PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN
WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLY MIXED IN FOR THE AZO/BTL/JXN TERMINALS
AND I-94 CORRIDOR REGION. MEANWHILE THE MKG/GRR/LAN TERMINALS ARE
CLOSER TO THE TRANSITION ZONE TO MOSTLY SNOW WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
NORTH OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR. SUSPECT THESE TERMINALS WILL SEE MORE
IN THE WAY OF A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE... WITH LESS
FREEZING RAIN THAN TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 290515
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ROADS COULD BE ICY ON THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATIONS AN
INCH OR LESS. IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A RAPID INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES ALONG WITH DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06-09Z. PCPN TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG I-94. ALSO FREEZING
AND SLEET ALONG I-96 WHICH MAY START CHANGING OVER THE SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AND SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET TOWARD HIGHWAY 10. THE
PEAK OF THE PCPN WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

KEPT THE HEADLINES AS IS. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE ICY ROADS FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY AND
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. AS THE VERY WARM AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS
ADVECTS EAST WE WILL SEE 850 MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C FOR BY 06Z FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE START OFF VERY DRY SO TEMPS WILL
DROP AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND WE COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE PRECIP GOES OVER TO IP AND FZRA. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH QPF SO ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE POTENTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MORNING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS SHOULD
WARM AS ANY FREEZING PRECIP BRINGS LATENT HEAT EFFECTS THAT ARE NOT
BEING OFFSET BY CAA NEAR THE SFC. SO EXPECT ICING ISSUES TO END
DURING THE MORNING. SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS AFTER 18Z WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING BACK TO
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH ACCUMULATION ON
ROADS...SO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

SYNOPTIC SNOWS END BY EVENING WITH SOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AOB 5KFT DURING THE EVENING SO LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

OVERALL MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUGGESTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL END
UP WITH LESS PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH RES EURO
SUGGESTS A DRY FORECAST IS THE WAY TO GO FOR SUNDAY.  NOT READY TO
DROP POPS COMPLETELY...BUT THE PATTERN WE ARE IN HAS BEEN A DRY
ONE.  AS A RESULT I WILL LOWER POPS ON SUNDAY AND BACK OFF ON THE
QPF CONSIDERABLY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED FOR
TUESDAY.  WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...THAT SHOULD SUPPORT A
SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT. POPS WERE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS.

I DID LOWER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY GIVEN
THE DOMINANCE OF THE ARCTIC AIR.  THE MODELS COMMONLY ARE TOO WARM
WITH THE NIGHTTIME LOWS DURING THESE EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAFS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN
ICING EVENT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. EXPECT MODERATE ICING BETWEEN THE SFC AND
3000 FT AND ALSO BETWEEN 8000 AND 18000 FT. TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
3000 FT AND 8000 FT SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN THAT LAYER. LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS AFTER 15Z-
18Z THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO PRECIP CHANGING TO MOSTLY ALL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER ISSUE IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT
WITH 50 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 2000-4000 FT AGL
LAYER AND SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 12-16 KTS.

EXPECT NUMEROUS IFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY AS
THE SFC LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS MI. CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING AFTER
18Z THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHIFTING/INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 15-25 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DEVELOPING.

RADAR MOSAIC AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN/ERN IL
SHIFTING THIS WAY. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THIS
AREA WILL EXPAND AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER SW LWR MI THROUGH
09Z. HOWEVER IT STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE JUST HOW PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN
WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLY MIXED IN FOR THE AZO/BTL/JXN TERMINALS
AND I-94 CORRIDOR REGION. MEANWHILE THE MKG/GRR/LAN TERMINALS ARE
CLOSER TO THE TRANSITION ZONE TO MOSTLY SNOW WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
NORTH OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR. SUSPECT THESE TERMINALS WILL SEE MORE
IN THE WAY OF A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE... WITH LESS
FREEZING RAIN THAN TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 290515
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ROADS COULD BE ICY ON THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATIONS AN
INCH OR LESS. IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A RAPID INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES ALONG WITH DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06-09Z. PCPN TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG I-94. ALSO FREEZING
AND SLEET ALONG I-96 WHICH MAY START CHANGING OVER THE SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AND SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET TOWARD HIGHWAY 10. THE
PEAK OF THE PCPN WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

KEPT THE HEADLINES AS IS. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE ICY ROADS FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY AND
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. AS THE VERY WARM AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS
ADVECTS EAST WE WILL SEE 850 MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C FOR BY 06Z FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE START OFF VERY DRY SO TEMPS WILL
DROP AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND WE COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE PRECIP GOES OVER TO IP AND FZRA. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH QPF SO ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE POTENTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MORNING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS SHOULD
WARM AS ANY FREEZING PRECIP BRINGS LATENT HEAT EFFECTS THAT ARE NOT
BEING OFFSET BY CAA NEAR THE SFC. SO EXPECT ICING ISSUES TO END
DURING THE MORNING. SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS AFTER 18Z WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING BACK TO
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH ACCUMULATION ON
ROADS...SO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

SYNOPTIC SNOWS END BY EVENING WITH SOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AOB 5KFT DURING THE EVENING SO LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

OVERALL MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUGGESTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL END
UP WITH LESS PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH RES EURO
SUGGESTS A DRY FORECAST IS THE WAY TO GO FOR SUNDAY.  NOT READY TO
DROP POPS COMPLETELY...BUT THE PATTERN WE ARE IN HAS BEEN A DRY
ONE.  AS A RESULT I WILL LOWER POPS ON SUNDAY AND BACK OFF ON THE
QPF CONSIDERABLY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED FOR
TUESDAY.  WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...THAT SHOULD SUPPORT A
SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT. POPS WERE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS.

I DID LOWER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY GIVEN
THE DOMINANCE OF THE ARCTIC AIR.  THE MODELS COMMONLY ARE TOO WARM
WITH THE NIGHTTIME LOWS DURING THESE EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAFS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN
ICING EVENT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. EXPECT MODERATE ICING BETWEEN THE SFC AND
3000 FT AND ALSO BETWEEN 8000 AND 18000 FT. TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
3000 FT AND 8000 FT SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN THAT LAYER. LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS AFTER 15Z-
18Z THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO PRECIP CHANGING TO MOSTLY ALL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER ISSUE IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT
WITH 50 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 2000-4000 FT AGL
LAYER AND SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 12-16 KTS.

EXPECT NUMEROUS IFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY AS
THE SFC LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS MI. CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING AFTER
18Z THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHIFTING/INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 15-25 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DEVELOPING.

RADAR MOSAIC AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN/ERN IL
SHIFTING THIS WAY. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THIS
AREA WILL EXPAND AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER SW LWR MI THROUGH
09Z. HOWEVER IT STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE JUST HOW PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN
WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLY MIXED IN FOR THE AZO/BTL/JXN TERMINALS
AND I-94 CORRIDOR REGION. MEANWHILE THE MKG/GRR/LAN TERMINALS ARE
CLOSER TO THE TRANSITION ZONE TO MOSTLY SNOW WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
NORTH OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR. SUSPECT THESE TERMINALS WILL SEE MORE
IN THE WAY OF A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE... WITH LESS
FREEZING RAIN THAN TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD WEATHER WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MEAN NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE RIVERS. ICE WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO







000
FXUS63 KDTX 290458
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015


.AVIATION...

AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CEILINGS AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS LOW LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW TO THE
REGION STARTING ROUGHLY AROUND 12Z. AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
FORCING AND A COLDER THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS ALL SNOW AT
MBS...STARTING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 09Z. COLD AIR WRAPPING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK
OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE WINDING DOWN
DURING THURSDAY EVENING. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT FNT
AND MBS...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO
AIRPORTS. VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTHWARD.

FOR DTW...CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR ALOFT FORECAST TO
OVERSPREAD METRO DETROIT...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START MAINLY AS
FREEZING RAIN. IT SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO PURE RAIN DURING THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 10Z.

* MEDIUM IN PRECIP TYPE STARTING AS A FZRA/IP MIX THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING

A DEPARTING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AMPLE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR ACROSS SE MI TODAY. LIGHT S-SE RETURN FLOW HAS IN TURN ALLOWED
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE BROAD RIBBON
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOW EXPANDING
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TO THE EAST. THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT
SOME DEGREE OF TEMP DROP THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SFC LOW WILL DRIVE WARMER AIR IN DURING
THE NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW
WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP IN THE COMING WEEK ARRIVES RIGHT AWAY ON
THURSDAY AS A PAIR OF WAVES ATTEMPTS TO PHASE OVER THE REGION. LOW
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS WILL
TRANSITION TO DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS ENERGY RELEASED FROM THE ALASKAN BAY LOW SURGES DOWN INTO THE
MIDWEST. A CURRENT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND RESULTANT SFC LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK EASTERLY THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY...LOOKING TO STAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST NOTABLE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE. THIS INTERACTION IS KEY TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT
FOR SE MI. THE SLOWER THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS...THE MORE LIKELY
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL REMAIN IN TACK...VS A FASTER WAVE
CATCHING UP AND PHASING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WOULD DISRUPT THE
LOW...SHEARING IT NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS IT TRIES TO
REDEVELOP FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. IN THE END...MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD KEEPING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS...THUS HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE DETAILS TO FOLLOW...

WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SFC LOW BEING LESS AFFECTED BY THE INCOMING
WAVE/JET MAX INTO SOUTHERN MI...THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
MORE OF ITS STRUCTURE/FORCING. THIS IS ALREADY BEING SHOWN IN THE
MODELS BY KEEPING THE STRONG BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN TACK AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH SW/CENTRAL MI EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THE
DEFORMATION BAND AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT ALSO
KEEPS BRINGS THE NOSE OF A THETA E PLUME UP THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
12-18Z WITH A DECENT GRADIENT ON THE LEAD EDGE. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY
AIR FROM THE SFC TO 700MB IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD BACK
MUCH OF THE PRECIP TIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF I75. THE LEAD ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE SAGINAW BAY FROM ABOUT 09-12Z. THIS WILL GIVE THAT
AREA AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE WHILE
BEGINNING TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.
AFTER 12Z...STRONG SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS PROMOTES GOOD WAA IN
THE 900-800MB LAYER WITH TEMPS GOING NEARLY ISOTHERMAL IN THE LAYER
RIGHT AROUND 0C. MODELS VARY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE LL THERMAL
PROFILE IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLICATED MIXED
PRECIP SCENARIO OVER SOUTHERN MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MIXED
PRECIP WILL END LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS STRONG
CAA SURGES IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS
WILL TURN THE REMAINING PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE DEFORMATION
BAND...INTO ALL SNOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT. LOOKING FOR A
POSSIBLE INCH OVER THE THUMB AS THE BAND SWEEPS THROUGH WITH LESS
THAN A HALF INCH FURTHER SOUTH NEAR DETROIT. MODELS ARE PRETTY WELL
IN LINE WITH QPF FOR THE EVENT...WHICH HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...MAINTAINING AROUND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND AROUND 0.15-0.20 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL REALLY CUT INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M59 WHERE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL LIKELY OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CAA COOLS THE
ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH FOR SNOW. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE
ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S WITH RAIN
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS BETWEEN I69 AND M59 WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX RESULTING IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2
INCHES. NORTH OF I69 STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A PURE SNOW
EVENT...BUT WITH LOW SNOWFALL R