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000
FXUS63 KGRR 191140
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
MILDER AIRMASS INTO MICHIGAN THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE
UPPER PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS WAS MOVING ONSHORE IN WESTERN CANADA
AND THE NW U.S. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS
STRENGTHENING SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE DEVELOP HERE IN SW MICHIGAN...OVERALL
THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL END UP SUFFICIENT AS WELL. THE 0 TO
1 KM SHEAR AND HELICITY DO SUPPORT AND ELEVATED RISK FOR TORNADOES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVORED THE 18Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. OVERALL I KEPT THE HIGH POPS GOING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE UNDERGOING A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A PATCH OF LIFR CLOUDS/FOG WAS DRIFTING NORTHWEST FROM KGRR TO
KMKG AND THIS WILL IMPACT THESE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE THE IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WERE VERY LOCALIZED. STILL
MVFR FOG WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
THE IFR COULD EXPAND OVER THE NEXT HR.  BY 15Z IT APPEARS THAT VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. LATER TONIGHT LOCALIZED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE.
SOME INSTABILITY MOVES IN AS WELL...SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. I DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT ALL ZONES WILL SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUPPORTS THE HIGHEST WAVES UP NORTH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
LATER SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS AWAY. BY 00Z MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE
STORMS WILL STALL OUT...THUS 1 TO 2 HR HEAVY RAIN DURATION IS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES IF ANY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ847>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>846.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 191140
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
MILDER AIRMASS INTO MICHIGAN THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE
UPPER PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS WAS MOVING ONSHORE IN WESTERN CANADA
AND THE NW U.S. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS
STRENGTHENING SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE DEVELOP HERE IN SW MICHIGAN...OVERALL
THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL END UP SUFFICIENT AS WELL. THE 0 TO
1 KM SHEAR AND HELICITY DO SUPPORT AND ELEVATED RISK FOR TORNADOES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVORED THE 18Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. OVERALL I KEPT THE HIGH POPS GOING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE UNDERGOING A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A PATCH OF LIFR CLOUDS/FOG WAS DRIFTING NORTHWEST FROM KGRR TO
KMKG AND THIS WILL IMPACT THESE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE THE IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WERE VERY LOCALIZED. STILL
MVFR FOG WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
THE IFR COULD EXPAND OVER THE NEXT HR.  BY 15Z IT APPEARS THAT VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. LATER TONIGHT LOCALIZED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE.
SOME INSTABILITY MOVES IN AS WELL...SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. I DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT ALL ZONES WILL SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUPPORTS THE HIGHEST WAVES UP NORTH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
LATER SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS AWAY. BY 00Z MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE
STORMS WILL STALL OUT...THUS 1 TO 2 HR HEAVY RAIN DURATION IS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES IF ANY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ847>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>846.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 191140
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
MILDER AIRMASS INTO MICHIGAN THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE
UPPER PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS WAS MOVING ONSHORE IN WESTERN CANADA
AND THE NW U.S. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS
STRENGTHENING SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE DEVELOP HERE IN SW MICHIGAN...OVERALL
THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL END UP SUFFICIENT AS WELL. THE 0 TO
1 KM SHEAR AND HELICITY DO SUPPORT AND ELEVATED RISK FOR TORNADOES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVORED THE 18Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. OVERALL I KEPT THE HIGH POPS GOING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE UNDERGOING A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A PATCH OF LIFR CLOUDS/FOG WAS DRIFTING NORTHWEST FROM KGRR TO
KMKG AND THIS WILL IMPACT THESE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE THE IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WERE VERY LOCALIZED. STILL
MVFR FOG WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
THE IFR COULD EXPAND OVER THE NEXT HR.  BY 15Z IT APPEARS THAT VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. LATER TONIGHT LOCALIZED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE.
SOME INSTABILITY MOVES IN AS WELL...SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. I DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT ALL ZONES WILL SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUPPORTS THE HIGHEST WAVES UP NORTH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
LATER SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS AWAY. BY 00Z MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE
STORMS WILL STALL OUT...THUS 1 TO 2 HR HEAVY RAIN DURATION IS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES IF ANY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ847>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>846.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 191140
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
MILDER AIRMASS INTO MICHIGAN THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE
UPPER PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS WAS MOVING ONSHORE IN WESTERN CANADA
AND THE NW U.S. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS
STRENGTHENING SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE DEVELOP HERE IN SW MICHIGAN...OVERALL
THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL END UP SUFFICIENT AS WELL. THE 0 TO
1 KM SHEAR AND HELICITY DO SUPPORT AND ELEVATED RISK FOR TORNADOES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVORED THE 18Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. OVERALL I KEPT THE HIGH POPS GOING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE UNDERGOING A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A PATCH OF LIFR CLOUDS/FOG WAS DRIFTING NORTHWEST FROM KGRR TO
KMKG AND THIS WILL IMPACT THESE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE THE IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WERE VERY LOCALIZED. STILL
MVFR FOG WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
THE IFR COULD EXPAND OVER THE NEXT HR.  BY 15Z IT APPEARS THAT VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. LATER TONIGHT LOCALIZED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE.
SOME INSTABILITY MOVES IN AS WELL...SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. I DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT ALL ZONES WILL SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUPPORTS THE HIGHEST WAVES UP NORTH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
LATER SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS AWAY. BY 00Z MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE
STORMS WILL STALL OUT...THUS 1 TO 2 HR HEAVY RAIN DURATION IS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES IF ANY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ847>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>846.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS






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000
FXUS63 KMQT 191136
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
A TROUGH FROM SRN SASK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW
WAS INCREASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE
PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF CNTRL WI AND
UPPER MI. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NR CNTRL MN WERE SUPPORTED BY
310K-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH FAVORABLE 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION
ON 40-50 KNOT WINDS.

TODAY...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD UPPER MI AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND THE STRONGER 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE IN. WITH
MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI AND
THE PRESENCE OF A DRY 850-600 MB LAYER...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ONLY CHANCE FOR TSRA WAS MENTIONED OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE MUCAPE
VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 800 J/KG. AS THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT TOWARD
AFTERNOON AND DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...A BETTER PORTION OF THE
40-50 KNOT 900-850 MB WINDS MAY MIX TOWARD THE SFC. HOWEVER...THE
DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD MAINLY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE LAKE MI MARINE LAYER ARE ABLE
TO MIX TOWARD THE SFC OVER THE EAST AND WINDS GUST INTO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY.

TONIGHT...SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE CWA IN THE EVENING AS THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH
AND THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE(PWAT TO 1.5 INCHES)/INSTABILITY
(MUCPAE TO NEAR 1K J/KG) MOVE IN. THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSRA
REMAINS WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 14C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH
MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCING THE
TROUGH ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT MOVED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY FOR SAT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA SAT NIGHT AS NEXT ENERGY ARRIVES WITH MORE MOISTURE. DID
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
TUE WITH A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN IS A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING ABOVE NORMAL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MI MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER MI HAS
BROUGHT STRATUS (IFR CIGS) INTO SAW. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WITH MAINLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT CMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SFC TROF WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS
HIGHER THERE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF
TROF... ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT TIME. BY LATE
TONIGHT...MOISTENING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH A
LOWER CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTING
EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY BEHIND THIS
TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 191136
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
A TROUGH FROM SRN SASK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW
WAS INCREASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE
PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF CNTRL WI AND
UPPER MI. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NR CNTRL MN WERE SUPPORTED BY
310K-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH FAVORABLE 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION
ON 40-50 KNOT WINDS.

TODAY...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD UPPER MI AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND THE STRONGER 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE IN. WITH
MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI AND
THE PRESENCE OF A DRY 850-600 MB LAYER...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ONLY CHANCE FOR TSRA WAS MENTIONED OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE MUCAPE
VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 800 J/KG. AS THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT TOWARD
AFTERNOON AND DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...A BETTER PORTION OF THE
40-50 KNOT 900-850 MB WINDS MAY MIX TOWARD THE SFC. HOWEVER...THE
DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD MAINLY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE LAKE MI MARINE LAYER ARE ABLE
TO MIX TOWARD THE SFC OVER THE EAST AND WINDS GUST INTO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY.

TONIGHT...SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE CWA IN THE EVENING AS THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH
AND THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE(PWAT TO 1.5 INCHES)/INSTABILITY
(MUCPAE TO NEAR 1K J/KG) MOVE IN. THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSRA
REMAINS WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 14C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH
MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCING THE
TROUGH ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT MOVED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY FOR SAT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA SAT NIGHT AS NEXT ENERGY ARRIVES WITH MORE MOISTURE. DID
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
TUE WITH A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN IS A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING ABOVE NORMAL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MI MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER MI HAS
BROUGHT STRATUS (IFR CIGS) INTO SAW. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WITH MAINLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT CMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SFC TROF WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS
HIGHER THERE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF
TROF... ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT TIME. BY LATE
TONIGHT...MOISTENING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH A
LOWER CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTING
EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY BEHIND THIS
TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 191136
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
A TROUGH FROM SRN SASK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW
WAS INCREASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE
PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF CNTRL WI AND
UPPER MI. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NR CNTRL MN WERE SUPPORTED BY
310K-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH FAVORABLE 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION
ON 40-50 KNOT WINDS.

TODAY...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD UPPER MI AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND THE STRONGER 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE IN. WITH
MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI AND
THE PRESENCE OF A DRY 850-600 MB LAYER...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ONLY CHANCE FOR TSRA WAS MENTIONED OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE MUCAPE
VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 800 J/KG. AS THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT TOWARD
AFTERNOON AND DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...A BETTER PORTION OF THE
40-50 KNOT 900-850 MB WINDS MAY MIX TOWARD THE SFC. HOWEVER...THE
DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD MAINLY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE LAKE MI MARINE LAYER ARE ABLE
TO MIX TOWARD THE SFC OVER THE EAST AND WINDS GUST INTO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY.

TONIGHT...SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE CWA IN THE EVENING AS THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH
AND THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE(PWAT TO 1.5 INCHES)/INSTABILITY
(MUCPAE TO NEAR 1K J/KG) MOVE IN. THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSRA
REMAINS WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 14C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH
MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCING THE
TROUGH ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT MOVED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY FOR SAT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA SAT NIGHT AS NEXT ENERGY ARRIVES WITH MORE MOISTURE. DID
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
TUE WITH A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN IS A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING ABOVE NORMAL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MI MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER MI HAS
BROUGHT STRATUS (IFR CIGS) INTO SAW. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WITH MAINLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT CMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SFC TROF WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS
HIGHER THERE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF
TROF... ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT TIME. BY LATE
TONIGHT...MOISTENING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH A
LOWER CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTING
EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY BEHIND THIS
TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 191136
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
A TROUGH FROM SRN SASK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW
WAS INCREASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE
PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF CNTRL WI AND
UPPER MI. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NR CNTRL MN WERE SUPPORTED BY
310K-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH FAVORABLE 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION
ON 40-50 KNOT WINDS.

TODAY...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD UPPER MI AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND THE STRONGER 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE IN. WITH
MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI AND
THE PRESENCE OF A DRY 850-600 MB LAYER...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ONLY CHANCE FOR TSRA WAS MENTIONED OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE MUCAPE
VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 800 J/KG. AS THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT TOWARD
AFTERNOON AND DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...A BETTER PORTION OF THE
40-50 KNOT 900-850 MB WINDS MAY MIX TOWARD THE SFC. HOWEVER...THE
DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD MAINLY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE LAKE MI MARINE LAYER ARE ABLE
TO MIX TOWARD THE SFC OVER THE EAST AND WINDS GUST INTO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY.

TONIGHT...SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE CWA IN THE EVENING AS THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH
AND THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE(PWAT TO 1.5 INCHES)/INSTABILITY
(MUCPAE TO NEAR 1K J/KG) MOVE IN. THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSRA
REMAINS WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 14C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH
MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCING THE
TROUGH ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT MOVED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY FOR SAT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA SAT NIGHT AS NEXT ENERGY ARRIVES WITH MORE MOISTURE. DID
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
TUE WITH A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN IS A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING ABOVE NORMAL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MI MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER MI HAS
BROUGHT STRATUS (IFR CIGS) INTO SAW. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WITH MAINLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT CMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SFC TROF WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS
HIGHER THERE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF
TROF... ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT TIME. BY LATE
TONIGHT...MOISTENING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH A
LOWER CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTING
EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY BEHIND THIS
TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 191103
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
703 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PATCHY MVFR FOG AND VFR CEILING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DTW
CORRIDOR OFF THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE...BUT LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AT KDTW. ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE
RADIATING CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN PATCHY MVFR/ISOLATED IFR
VSBYS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THOUGH AREA TAF SITES HAVE
LARGELY BEEN SPARED. ANY EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL END
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING GRADIENT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

*NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESENTLY TO
OUR NORTHEAST TO TRANSLATE WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GET UNDERWAY EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH A GRADUAL SHARPENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES A
LAKE-ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND ACROSS MUCH
OF SE MICHIGAN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
SLOW RETREAT OF THE SHALLOW AND COOL AIRMASS PRESENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. UNDER FULL SUN, HOWEVER, THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPARE TO YESTERDAY`S. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH RANGES FROM LOW 60S
IN THE EASTERN THUMB TO NEAR 70 FOR WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
SHADOW. FULL DECOUPLING IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND`S WAVE, MAINLY AFTER 06Z. AS A RESULT, CLEAR
SKIES AND A VERY DRY COLUMN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT COOLING EARLY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES STABILIZE OR EVEN SLOWLY RISE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY, ALL
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES REMAIN
UPSTREAM.

LONG TERM...

THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TODAY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
SATURDAY. THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL FEED OFF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS DUE TO CONTINUED LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION DURING THE
DAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS MODEST ALONG THE FRONT IN MODEL DATA
NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT EFFECTIVE
AT MAINTAINING ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE HYBRID GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
LEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
BECOMING MIXED IN WITH THE INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE AND JET
AXIS. EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN GENEROUS COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL/LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORTED SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO START SATURDAY MORNING HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT THE
TRI CITIES BEFORE NOON. A VERY SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
OUTLINES A STRONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD QUICKLY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND POSITION THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER
SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL THEN
BECOME LIKELY WHEN COMBINED PEAK HEATING AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE SOLID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
RISING INTO THE 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 12C...BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIKELY MUTED BY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AVERAGING ABOUT 1000 J/KG AND 6.5 C/KM RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL
REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER AS THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE STRONG WITH
SOME VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVOLVING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING THE EVENING AND PUSHING NEAR 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE OVERACHIEVEMENT IS ALREADY
BUILT INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON CALLING FOR HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE LEADING COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS EASTWARD BY SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING LESS BUT ADEQUATE
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION
BY A COMPACT UPPER WAVE TRAILING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO
WRING OUT LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING BUT EXITING QUICKLY BY EVENING TO ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO TAKE CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED FARTHER
WEST/OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY IN THE NEW GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALLOWS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AXIS
POSITION OF THE BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING UP MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA. THE SHORT WAVE CAUGHT UP IN THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE FORCED SLOWER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALLOW
MAINTENANCE OF A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD IN THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FARTHER WEST LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION DOES PAVE THE WAY
FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SETTLE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY IN
BACKDOOR FASHION BUT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED IN THE MODEL DATA
AND WASHES OUT ENOUGH FOR JUST A MODEST REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER
AIR.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY AND PERSIST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...
STABILITY MAY STILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER SAGINAW BAY AND THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THE NEED FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MONITORED AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES
THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A NEW ROUND OF
COOLER AIR SUNDAY WHICH WILL LINGER WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).









000
FXUS63 KDTX 191103
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
703 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PATCHY MVFR FOG AND VFR CEILING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DTW
CORRIDOR OFF THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE...BUT LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AT KDTW. ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE
RADIATING CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN PATCHY MVFR/ISOLATED IFR
VSBYS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THOUGH AREA TAF SITES HAVE
LARGELY BEEN SPARED. ANY EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL END
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING GRADIENT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

*NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESENTLY TO
OUR NORTHEAST TO TRANSLATE WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GET UNDERWAY EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH A GRADUAL SHARPENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES A
LAKE-ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND ACROSS MUCH
OF SE MICHIGAN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
SLOW RETREAT OF THE SHALLOW AND COOL AIRMASS PRESENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. UNDER FULL SUN, HOWEVER, THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPARE TO YESTERDAY`S. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH RANGES FROM LOW 60S
IN THE EASTERN THUMB TO NEAR 70 FOR WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
SHADOW. FULL DECOUPLING IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND`S WAVE, MAINLY AFTER 06Z. AS A RESULT, CLEAR
SKIES AND A VERY DRY COLUMN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT COOLING EARLY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES STABILIZE OR EVEN SLOWLY RISE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY, ALL
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES REMAIN
UPSTREAM.

LONG TERM...

THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TODAY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
SATURDAY. THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL FEED OFF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS DUE TO CONTINUED LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION DURING THE
DAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS MODEST ALONG THE FRONT IN MODEL DATA
NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT EFFECTIVE
AT MAINTAINING ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE HYBRID GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
LEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
BECOMING MIXED IN WITH THE INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE AND JET
AXIS. EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN GENEROUS COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL/LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORTED SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO START SATURDAY MORNING HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT THE
TRI CITIES BEFORE NOON. A VERY SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
OUTLINES A STRONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD QUICKLY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND POSITION THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER
SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL THEN
BECOME LIKELY WHEN COMBINED PEAK HEATING AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE SOLID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
RISING INTO THE 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 12C...BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIKELY MUTED BY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AVERAGING ABOUT 1000 J/KG AND 6.5 C/KM RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL
REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER AS THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE STRONG WITH
SOME VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVOLVING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING THE EVENING AND PUSHING NEAR 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE OVERACHIEVEMENT IS ALREADY
BUILT INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON CALLING FOR HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE LEADING COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS EASTWARD BY SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING LESS BUT ADEQUATE
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION
BY A COMPACT UPPER WAVE TRAILING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO
WRING OUT LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING BUT EXITING QUICKLY BY EVENING TO ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO TAKE CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED FARTHER
WEST/OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY IN THE NEW GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALLOWS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AXIS
POSITION OF THE BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING UP MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA. THE SHORT WAVE CAUGHT UP IN THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE FORCED SLOWER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALLOW
MAINTENANCE OF A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD IN THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FARTHER WEST LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION DOES PAVE THE WAY
FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SETTLE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY IN
BACKDOOR FASHION BUT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED IN THE MODEL DATA
AND WASHES OUT ENOUGH FOR JUST A MODEST REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER
AIR.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY AND PERSIST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...
STABILITY MAY STILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER SAGINAW BAY AND THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THE NEED FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MONITORED AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES
THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A NEW ROUND OF
COOLER AIR SUNDAY WHICH WILL LINGER WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







  [top]

000
FXUS63 KAPX 191052
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY. QUIETER AND INCREASINGLY MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD TODAY/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE FORCE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN BY
TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1027MB HIGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA.  1000MB SURFACE LOW CENTER WITHIN THIS
BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
WITH A FRONTAL (WARM) BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PRETTY STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO...WITH 65-70 DEGREE READINGS OVER SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WAS MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS MAIN WESTERLIES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  POSITIVE TILT ELONGATED POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TO OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  LOW/MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...THOUGH
STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...00Z APX SOUNDING
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 0.30 INCH (LESS THAN 40 PERCENT OF
NORMAL).  THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM
EARLIER CLOUD COVER...AND IS MANIFESTING ITSELF AS AN EXPANDING AREA
OF STRATUS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  SOME SCATTERED HIGH
BASED STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN ALSO FOUND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER.

FLAT SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WHILE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY TRACKS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  AS THIS OCCURS PRESSURES WILL FALL ACROSS MICHIGAN
TODAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND DEVELOPING AS
SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  INCREASING RETURN FLOW ALSO DRAWS MOISTURE UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL TONIGHT (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
1.25 INCH ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MANITOBA).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: EARLY ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS FOR
TODAY...AND RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT GIVEN COMBINATION OF GOOD MOISTURE
INFLOW/WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH ADVANCING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TODAY...CURRENT THINKING WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER IS THAT CURRENT
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LOWER WILL TEND TO MIX OUT WITH TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.  00Z GRB/DTX SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHER MIXING RATIOS
GETTING PULLED TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTERACTING WITH A
LOCALIZED TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WHICH MAY END UP GENERATING  MORE
CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF TODAY.  COULD ALSO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL THIS MORNING (ERY VISIBILITY
DROPPING TO 7 MILES LOOKS LIKE AN AUSPICIOUS SIGN).  MID CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVANCES TOWARD
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING DRIZZLE FOR EASTERN UPPER
SHOULD I DECIDE TO THROW THAT INTO THE MIX...WILL HOLD OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES UNTIL THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP
TODAY...GUSTING 20-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.

TONIGHT...THINK THE INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND STRAITS REGION THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ADVECTION OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AND SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THE PLUS SIDE
WITH REGARD TO FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMES...LOOKS LIKE MOST GAMES
SHOULD END BEFORE ANY REAL ISSUES OCCUR.  PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY AND
SHEAR ALOFT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTION...AND
WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL LIMIT WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL HAIL MAY BE A THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...RATHER WET LOOKING WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT AMPLIFIED NOAM
PATTERN SET TO GET A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BOOST...COURTESY OF STRONG
UPPER JET SLATED TO DIVE INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. SAID JET ALREADY FULLY MATURE BACK ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC...WITH NOSE OF 140+ KNOT H25 JET ALREADY ENTERING ABOVE THE
SHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DIGGING ON ITS
BACKSIDE...AND THESE WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO INITIATE RAPID WESTERN
NOAM RIDGE BUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENING INTO
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS CHANGE WILL NOT BE A QUIET ONE...WITH
PRE-TROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION RIPENING AN ATMOSPHERE FOR MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO WORK OVER. SHOWERS...WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS A RATHER SAFE BET SATURDAY ALONG LEAD CHARGING COLD
FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES POTENTIALLY KEEPING
CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PACIFIC PATTERN LOOKS
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SETTING
UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AS DEEP
TROUGHING DEVELOPS INTO WESTERN NOAM...FORCING A RAPID NORTHWARD
RETREAT OF POLAR JET INTO CENTRAL CANADA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MILDER AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...AND LIKELY WELL
BEYOND. ONLY TIME WILL TELL OF COURSE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: ALMOST ALL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...MOSTLY CENTERED ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
WEEKEND SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INTENSITY WILL ALSO NEED
TO BE ADDRESSED.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PLENTY COMING TOGETHER TO BRING A
BOUT OF WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SUPPLY THE MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
ALREADY UP NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF (OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL). LOW LEVEL JET ITSELF WILL BE EXITING STAGE RIGHT RATHER
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH BEST FORCED CONVERGENCE FROM SUCH
DOING THE SAME. UPPER JET DYNAMICS INITIALLY FOCUSED TO OUR
WEST...AS IS BEST SURFACE FORCING ALONG APPROACHING FRONT. KINDA
ENVISION INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/PERHAPS WITH ELEVATED
STORMS/PASSING OFF TO OUR EAST...POTENTIALLY NOT LEAVING MUCH UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER JET FORCING AND
MID LEVEL SUPPORT ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT SURFACED
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GIVING WHAT LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER/LIMITED INSOLATION. DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR... HOWEVER...
WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. WIND SUPPORT IS DEFINITELY THERE
FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. INSTABILITY WILL
DICTATE....WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH
(LATEST CIPS IMPACT GUIDANCE CONCURS). DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS JUST YET...AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCTS AS AVENUES TO EXPRESS THIS CONCERN.

FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING...BUT DOES NOT END
THE RAIN THREAT AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIDES OVERHEAD IN DEVELOPING
TROUGH AXIS. CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCED UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHLANDS
SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. SAME STORY GOES FOR SUNDAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE/WEAK LAKE RESPONSE KEEPING THE SHOWER THREAT GOING.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S SATURDAY...IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY CHILLIER SUNDAY...A GOOD 10 OR SO DEGREES COOLER.

TROUGHING BEGINS TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PERHAPS ONE LAST WAVE DIVING
ALONG ITS BACKSIDE LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO MID WEEK WITH GROWING
SUPPORT FOR RAPID HEIGHT RISES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH
OVERHEAD RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ABOVE COMBO SHOULD LEAD TO
QUIET CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (AND LIKELY BEYOND IF THINGS
SET UP AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS). SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT PLN THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST LOWER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY TO BECOME AN
ISSUE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WHILE
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT MIXING OVER THE WATER...GRADIENT
PLUS SOME ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTION WILL SUPPORT WINDS APPROACHING
GALE FORCE WITHIN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ZONES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND WINDS FUNNELING
THROUGH THE MANITOU PASSAGE WON`T HURT.  SO WILL HOIST A GALE
WARNING FOR THE MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT NEARSHORE
ZONES...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE ZONES...AND WILL SPIN UP AN ADVISORY FOR WHITEFISH BAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LMZ323-341-342.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 190920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
A TROUGH FROM SRN SASK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW
WAS INCREASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE
PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF CNTRL WI AND
UPPER MI. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NR CNTRL MN WERE SUPPORTED BY
310K-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH FAVORABLE 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION
ON 40-50 KNOT WINDS.

TODAY...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD UPPER MI AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND THE STRONGER 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE IN. WITH
MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI AND
THE PRESENCE OF A DRY 850-600 MB LAYER...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ONLY CHANCE FOR TSRA WAS MENTIONED OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE MUCAPE
VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 800 J/KG. AS THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT TOWARD
AFTERNOON AND DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...A BETTER PORTION OF THE
40-50 KNOT 900-850 MB WINDS MAY MIX TOWARD THE SFC. HOWEVER...THE
DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD MAINLY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE LAKE MI MARINE LAYER ARE ABLE
TO MIX TOWARD THE SFC OVER THE EAST AND WINDS GUST INTO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY.

TONIGHT...SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE CWA IN THE EVENING AS THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH
AND THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE(PWAT TO 1.5 INCHES)/INSTABILITY
(MUCPAE TO NEAR 1K J/KG) MOVE IN. THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSRA
REMAINS WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 14C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH
MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCING THE
TROUGH ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT MOVED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY FOR SAT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA SAT NIGHT AS NEXT ENERGY ARRIVES WITH MORE MOISTURE. DID
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
TUE WITH A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN IS A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING ABOVE NORMAL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRES WILL
BRING TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER
MI SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS (IFR CIGS) SPREADING N TO KSAW TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WHILE S WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING AT KIWD...LOW
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID
MORNING. WITH FLOW UNDERGOING MORE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPING BEFORE
REACHING KCMX...OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF
WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS HIGHER
THERE THIS AFTN. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF TROF...
ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE AT
KCMX/KIWD DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT
TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTING
EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY BEHIND THIS
TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 190920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
A TROUGH FROM SRN SASK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW
WAS INCREASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE
PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF CNTRL WI AND
UPPER MI. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NR CNTRL MN WERE SUPPORTED BY
310K-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH FAVORABLE 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION
ON 40-50 KNOT WINDS.

TODAY...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD UPPER MI AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND THE STRONGER 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE IN. WITH
MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI AND
THE PRESENCE OF A DRY 850-600 MB LAYER...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ONLY CHANCE FOR TSRA WAS MENTIONED OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE MUCAPE
VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 800 J/KG. AS THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT TOWARD
AFTERNOON AND DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...A BETTER PORTION OF THE
40-50 KNOT 900-850 MB WINDS MAY MIX TOWARD THE SFC. HOWEVER...THE
DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD MAINLY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE LAKE MI MARINE LAYER ARE ABLE
TO MIX TOWARD THE SFC OVER THE EAST AND WINDS GUST INTO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY.

TONIGHT...SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE CWA IN THE EVENING AS THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH
AND THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE(PWAT TO 1.5 INCHES)/INSTABILITY
(MUCPAE TO NEAR 1K J/KG) MOVE IN. THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSRA
REMAINS WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 14C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH
MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCING THE
TROUGH ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT MOVED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY FOR SAT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA SAT NIGHT AS NEXT ENERGY ARRIVES WITH MORE MOISTURE. DID
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
TUE WITH A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN IS A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING ABOVE NORMAL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRES WILL
BRING TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER
MI SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS (IFR CIGS) SPREADING N TO KSAW TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WHILE S WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING AT KIWD...LOW
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID
MORNING. WITH FLOW UNDERGOING MORE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPING BEFORE
REACHING KCMX...OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF
WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS HIGHER
THERE THIS AFTN. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF TROF...
ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE AT
KCMX/KIWD DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT
TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTING
EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY BEHIND THIS
TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 190821
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY. QUIETER AND INCREASINGLY MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD TODAY/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE FORCE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN BY
TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1027MB HIGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA.  1000MB SURFACE LOW CENTER WITHIN THIS
BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
WITH A FRONTAL (WARM) BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PRETTY STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO...WITH 65-70 DEGREE READINGS OVER SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WAS MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS MAIN WESTERLIES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  POSITIVE TILT ELONGATED POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TO OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  LOW/MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...THOUGH
STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...00Z APX SOUNDING
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 0.30 INCH (LESS THAN 40 PERCENT OF
NORMAL).  THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM
EARLIER CLOUD COVER...AND IS MANIFESTING ITSELF AS AN EXPANDING AREA
OF STRATUS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  SOME SCATTERED HIGH
BASED STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN ALSO FOUND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER.

FLAT SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WHILE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY TRACKS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  AS THIS OCCURS PRESSURES WILL FALL ACROSS MICHIGAN
TODAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND DEVELOPING AS
SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  INCREASING RETURN FLOW ALSO DRAWS MOISTURE UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL TONIGHT (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
1.25 INCH ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MANITOBA).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: EARLY ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS FOR
TODAY...AND RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT GIVEN COMBINATION OF GOOD MOISTURE
INFLOW/WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH ADVANCING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TODAY...CURRENT THINKING WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER IS THAT CURRENT
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LOWER WILL TEND TO MIX OUT WITH TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.  00Z GRB/DTX SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHER MIXING RATIOS
GETTING PULLED TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTERACTING WITH A
LOCALIZED TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WHICH MAY END UP GENERATING  MORE
CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF TODAY.  COULD ALSO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL THIS MORNING (ERY VISIBILITY
DROPPING TO 7 MILES LOOKS LIKE AN AUSPICIOUS SIGN).  MID CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVANCES TOWARD
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING DRIZZLE FOR EASTERN UPPER
SHOULD I DECIDE TO THROW THAT INTO THE MIX...WILL HOLD OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES UNTIL THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP
TODAY...GUSTING 20-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.

TONIGHT...THINK THE INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND STRAITS REGION THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ADVECTION OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AND SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THE PLUS SIDE
WITH REGARD TO FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMES...LOOKS LIKE MOST GAMES
SHOULD END BEFORE ANY REAL ISSUES OCCUR.  PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY AND
SHEAR ALOFT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTION...AND
WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL LIMIT WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL HAIL MAY BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...RATHER WET LOOKING WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT AMPLIFIED NOAM
PATTERN SET TO GET A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BOOST...COURTESY OF STRONG
UPPER JET SLATED TO DIVE INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. SAID JET ALREADY FULLY MATURE BACK ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC...WITH NOSE OF 140+ KNOT H25 JET ALREADY ENTERING ABOVE THE
SHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DIGGING ON ITS
BACKSIDE...AND THESE WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO INITIATE RAPID WESTERN
NOAM RIDGE BUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENING INTO
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS CHANGE WILL NOT BE A QUIET ONE...WITH
PRE-TROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION RIPENING AN ATMOSPHERE FOR MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO WORK OVER. SHOWERS...WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS A RATHER SAFE BET SATURDAY ALONG LEAD CHARGING COLD
FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES POTENTIALLY KEEPING
CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PACIFIC PATTERN LOOKS
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SETTING
UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AS DEEP
TROUGHING DEVELOPS INTO WESTERN NOAM...FORCING A RAPID NORTHWARD
RETREAT OF POLAR JET INTO CENTRAL CANADA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MILDER AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...AND LIKELY WELL
BEYOND. ONLY TIME WILL TELL OF COURSE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: ALMOST ALL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...MOSTLY CENTERED ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
WEEKEND SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INTENSITY WILL ALSO NEED
TO BE ADDRESSED.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PLENTY COMING TOGETHER TO BRING A
BOUT OF WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SUPPLY THE MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
ALREADY UP NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF (OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL). LOW LEVEL JET ITSELF WILL BE EXITING STAGE RIGHT RATHER
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH BEST FORCED CONVERGENCE FROM SUCH
DOING THE SAME. UPPER JET DYNAMICS INITIALLY FOCUSED TO OUR
WEST...AS IS BEST SURFACE FORCING ALONG APPROACHING FRONT. KINDA
ENVISION INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/PERHAPS WITH ELEVATED
STORMS/PASSING OFF TO OUR EAST...POTENTIALLY NOT LEAVING MUCH UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER JET FORCING AND
MID LEVEL SUPPORT ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT SURFACED
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GIVING WHAT LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER/LIMITED INSOLATION. DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR... HOWEVER...
WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. WIND SUPPORT IS DEFINITELY THERE
FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. INSTABILITY WILL
DICTATE....WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH
(LATEST CIPS IMPACT GUIDANCE CONCURS). DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS JUST YET...AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCTS AS AVENUES TO EXPRESS THIS CONCERN.

FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING...BUT DOES NOT END
THE RAIN THREAT AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIDES OVERHEAD IN DEVELOPING
TROUGH AXIS. CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCED UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHLANDS
SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. SAME STORY GOES FOR SUNDAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE/WEAK LAKE RESPONSE KEEPING THE SHOWER THREAT GOING.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S SATURDAY...IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY CHILLIER SUNDAY...A GOOD 10 OR SO DEGREES COOLER.

TROUGHING BEGINS TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PERHAPS ONE LAST WAVE DIVING
ALONG ITS BACKSIDE LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO MID WEEK WITH GROWING
SUPPORT FOR RAPID HEIGHT RISES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH
OVERHEAD RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ABOVE COMBO SHOULD LEAD TO
QUIET CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (AND LIKELY BEYOND IF THINGS
SET UP AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS). SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY...PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING THANKS TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SLIDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDER...BUT MAINLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WHILE
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT MIXING OVER THE WATER...GRADIENT
PLUS SOME ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTION WILL SUPPORT WINDS APPROACHING
GALE FORCE WITHIN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ZONES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND WINDS FUNNELING
THROUGH THE MANITOU PASSAGE WON`T HURT.  SO WILL HOIST A GALE
WARNING FOR THE MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT NEARSHORE
ZONES...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE ZONES...AND WILL SPIN UP AN ADVISORY FOR WHITEFISH BAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LMZ323-341-342.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 190821
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY. QUIETER AND INCREASINGLY MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD TODAY/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE FORCE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN BY
TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1027MB HIGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA.  1000MB SURFACE LOW CENTER WITHIN THIS
BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
WITH A FRONTAL (WARM) BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PRETTY STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO...WITH 65-70 DEGREE READINGS OVER SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WAS MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS MAIN WESTERLIES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  POSITIVE TILT ELONGATED POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TO OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  LOW/MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...THOUGH
STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...00Z APX SOUNDING
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 0.30 INCH (LESS THAN 40 PERCENT OF
NORMAL).  THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM
EARLIER CLOUD COVER...AND IS MANIFESTING ITSELF AS AN EXPANDING AREA
OF STRATUS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  SOME SCATTERED HIGH
BASED STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN ALSO FOUND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER.

FLAT SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WHILE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY TRACKS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  AS THIS OCCURS PRESSURES WILL FALL ACROSS MICHIGAN
TODAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND DEVELOPING AS
SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  INCREASING RETURN FLOW ALSO DRAWS MOISTURE UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL TONIGHT (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
1.25 INCH ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MANITOBA).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: EARLY ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS FOR
TODAY...AND RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT GIVEN COMBINATION OF GOOD MOISTURE
INFLOW/WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH ADVANCING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TODAY...CURRENT THINKING WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER IS THAT CURRENT
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LOWER WILL TEND TO MIX OUT WITH TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.  00Z GRB/DTX SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHER MIXING RATIOS
GETTING PULLED TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTERACTING WITH A
LOCALIZED TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WHICH MAY END UP GENERATING  MORE
CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF TODAY.  COULD ALSO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL THIS MORNING (ERY VISIBILITY
DROPPING TO 7 MILES LOOKS LIKE AN AUSPICIOUS SIGN).  MID CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVANCES TOWARD
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING DRIZZLE FOR EASTERN UPPER
SHOULD I DECIDE TO THROW THAT INTO THE MIX...WILL HOLD OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES UNTIL THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP
TODAY...GUSTING 20-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.

TONIGHT...THINK THE INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND STRAITS REGION THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ADVECTION OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AND SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THE PLUS SIDE
WITH REGARD TO FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMES...LOOKS LIKE MOST GAMES
SHOULD END BEFORE ANY REAL ISSUES OCCUR.  PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY AND
SHEAR ALOFT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTION...AND
WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL LIMIT WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL HAIL MAY BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...RATHER WET LOOKING WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT AMPLIFIED NOAM
PATTERN SET TO GET A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BOOST...COURTESY OF STRONG
UPPER JET SLATED TO DIVE INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. SAID JET ALREADY FULLY MATURE BACK ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC...WITH NOSE OF 140+ KNOT H25 JET ALREADY ENTERING ABOVE THE
SHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DIGGING ON ITS
BACKSIDE...AND THESE WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO INITIATE RAPID WESTERN
NOAM RIDGE BUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENING INTO
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS CHANGE WILL NOT BE A QUIET ONE...WITH
PRE-TROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION RIPENING AN ATMOSPHERE FOR MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO WORK OVER. SHOWERS...WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS A RATHER SAFE BET SATURDAY ALONG LEAD CHARGING COLD
FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES POTENTIALLY KEEPING
CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PACIFIC PATTERN LOOKS
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SETTING
UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AS DEEP
TROUGHING DEVELOPS INTO WESTERN NOAM...FORCING A RAPID NORTHWARD
RETREAT OF POLAR JET INTO CENTRAL CANADA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MILDER AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...AND LIKELY WELL
BEYOND. ONLY TIME WILL TELL OF COURSE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: ALMOST ALL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...MOSTLY CENTERED ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
WEEKEND SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INTENSITY WILL ALSO NEED
TO BE ADDRESSED.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PLENTY COMING TOGETHER TO BRING A
BOUT OF WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SUPPLY THE MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
ALREADY UP NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF (OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL). LOW LEVEL JET ITSELF WILL BE EXITING STAGE RIGHT RATHER
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH BEST FORCED CONVERGENCE FROM SUCH
DOING THE SAME. UPPER JET DYNAMICS INITIALLY FOCUSED TO OUR
WEST...AS IS BEST SURFACE FORCING ALONG APPROACHING FRONT. KINDA
ENVISION INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/PERHAPS WITH ELEVATED
STORMS/PASSING OFF TO OUR EAST...POTENTIALLY NOT LEAVING MUCH UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER JET FORCING AND
MID LEVEL SUPPORT ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT SURFACED
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GIVING WHAT LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER/LIMITED INSOLATION. DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR... HOWEVER...
WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. WIND SUPPORT IS DEFINITELY THERE
FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. INSTABILITY WILL
DICTATE....WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH
(LATEST CIPS IMPACT GUIDANCE CONCURS). DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS JUST YET...AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCTS AS AVENUES TO EXPRESS THIS CONCERN.

FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING...BUT DOES NOT END
THE RAIN THREAT AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIDES OVERHEAD IN DEVELOPING
TROUGH AXIS. CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCED UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHLANDS
SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. SAME STORY GOES FOR SUNDAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE/WEAK LAKE RESPONSE KEEPING THE SHOWER THREAT GOING.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S SATURDAY...IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY CHILLIER SUNDAY...A GOOD 10 OR SO DEGREES COOLER.

TROUGHING BEGINS TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PERHAPS ONE LAST WAVE DIVING
ALONG ITS BACKSIDE LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO MID WEEK WITH GROWING
SUPPORT FOR RAPID HEIGHT RISES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH
OVERHEAD RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ABOVE COMBO SHOULD LEAD TO
QUIET CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (AND LIKELY BEYOND IF THINGS
SET UP AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS). SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY...PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING THANKS TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SLIDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDER...BUT MAINLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WHILE
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT MIXING OVER THE WATER...GRADIENT
PLUS SOME ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTION WILL SUPPORT WINDS APPROACHING
GALE FORCE WITHIN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ZONES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND WINDS FUNNELING
THROUGH THE MANITOU PASSAGE WON`T HURT.  SO WILL HOIST A GALE
WARNING FOR THE MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT NEARSHORE
ZONES...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE ZONES...AND WILL SPIN UP AN ADVISORY FOR WHITEFISH BAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LMZ323-341-342.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 190821
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY. QUIETER AND INCREASINGLY MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD TODAY/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE FORCE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN BY
TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1027MB HIGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA.  1000MB SURFACE LOW CENTER WITHIN THIS
BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
WITH A FRONTAL (WARM) BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PRETTY STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO...WITH 65-70 DEGREE READINGS OVER SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WAS MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS MAIN WESTERLIES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  POSITIVE TILT ELONGATED POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TO OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  LOW/MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...THOUGH
STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...00Z APX SOUNDING
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 0.30 INCH (LESS THAN 40 PERCENT OF
NORMAL).  THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM
EARLIER CLOUD COVER...AND IS MANIFESTING ITSELF AS AN EXPANDING AREA
OF STRATUS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  SOME SCATTERED HIGH
BASED STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN ALSO FOUND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER.

FLAT SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WHILE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY TRACKS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  AS THIS OCCURS PRESSURES WILL FALL ACROSS MICHIGAN
TODAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND DEVELOPING AS
SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  INCREASING RETURN FLOW ALSO DRAWS MOISTURE UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL TONIGHT (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
1.25 INCH ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MANITOBA).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: EARLY ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS FOR
TODAY...AND RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT GIVEN COMBINATION OF GOOD MOISTURE
INFLOW/WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH ADVANCING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TODAY...CURRENT THINKING WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER IS THAT CURRENT
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LOWER WILL TEND TO MIX OUT WITH TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.  00Z GRB/DTX SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHER MIXING RATIOS
GETTING PULLED TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTERACTING WITH A
LOCALIZED TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WHICH MAY END UP GENERATING  MORE
CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF TODAY.  COULD ALSO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL THIS MORNING (ERY VISIBILITY
DROPPING TO 7 MILES LOOKS LIKE AN AUSPICIOUS SIGN).  MID CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVANCES TOWARD
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING DRIZZLE FOR EASTERN UPPER
SHOULD I DECIDE TO THROW THAT INTO THE MIX...WILL HOLD OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES UNTIL THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP
TODAY...GUSTING 20-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.

TONIGHT...THINK THE INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND STRAITS REGION THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ADVECTION OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AND SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THE PLUS SIDE
WITH REGARD TO FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMES...LOOKS LIKE MOST GAMES
SHOULD END BEFORE ANY REAL ISSUES OCCUR.  PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY AND
SHEAR ALOFT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTION...AND
WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL LIMIT WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL HAIL MAY BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...RATHER WET LOOKING WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT AMPLIFIED NOAM
PATTERN SET TO GET A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BOOST...COURTESY OF STRONG
UPPER JET SLATED TO DIVE INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. SAID JET ALREADY FULLY MATURE BACK ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC...WITH NOSE OF 140+ KNOT H25 JET ALREADY ENTERING ABOVE THE
SHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DIGGING ON ITS
BACKSIDE...AND THESE WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO INITIATE RAPID WESTERN
NOAM RIDGE BUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENING INTO
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS CHANGE WILL NOT BE A QUIET ONE...WITH
PRE-TROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION RIPENING AN ATMOSPHERE FOR MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO WORK OVER. SHOWERS...WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS A RATHER SAFE BET SATURDAY ALONG LEAD CHARGING COLD
FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES POTENTIALLY KEEPING
CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PACIFIC PATTERN LOOKS
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SETTING
UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AS DEEP
TROUGHING DEVELOPS INTO WESTERN NOAM...FORCING A RAPID NORTHWARD
RETREAT OF POLAR JET INTO CENTRAL CANADA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MILDER AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...AND LIKELY WELL
BEYOND. ONLY TIME WILL TELL OF COURSE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: ALMOST ALL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...MOSTLY CENTERED ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
WEEKEND SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INTENSITY WILL ALSO NEED
TO BE ADDRESSED.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PLENTY COMING TOGETHER TO BRING A
BOUT OF WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SUPPLY THE MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
ALREADY UP NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF (OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL). LOW LEVEL JET ITSELF WILL BE EXITING STAGE RIGHT RATHER
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH BEST FORCED CONVERGENCE FROM SUCH
DOING THE SAME. UPPER JET DYNAMICS INITIALLY FOCUSED TO OUR
WEST...AS IS BEST SURFACE FORCING ALONG APPROACHING FRONT. KINDA
ENVISION INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/PERHAPS WITH ELEVATED
STORMS/PASSING OFF TO OUR EAST...POTENTIALLY NOT LEAVING MUCH UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER JET FORCING AND
MID LEVEL SUPPORT ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT SURFACED
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GIVING WHAT LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER/LIMITED INSOLATION. DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR... HOWEVER...
WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. WIND SUPPORT IS DEFINITELY THERE
FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. INSTABILITY WILL
DICTATE....WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH
(LATEST CIPS IMPACT GUIDANCE CONCURS). DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS JUST YET...AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCTS AS AVENUES TO EXPRESS THIS CONCERN.

FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING...BUT DOES NOT END
THE RAIN THREAT AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIDES OVERHEAD IN DEVELOPING
TROUGH AXIS. CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCED UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHLANDS
SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. SAME STORY GOES FOR SUNDAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE/WEAK LAKE RESPONSE KEEPING THE SHOWER THREAT GOING.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S SATURDAY...IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY CHILLIER SUNDAY...A GOOD 10 OR SO DEGREES COOLER.

TROUGHING BEGINS TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PERHAPS ONE LAST WAVE DIVING
ALONG ITS BACKSIDE LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO MID WEEK WITH GROWING
SUPPORT FOR RAPID HEIGHT RISES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH
OVERHEAD RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ABOVE COMBO SHOULD LEAD TO
QUIET CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (AND LIKELY BEYOND IF THINGS
SET UP AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS). SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY...PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING THANKS TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SLIDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDER...BUT MAINLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WHILE
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT MIXING OVER THE WATER...GRADIENT
PLUS SOME ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTION WILL SUPPORT WINDS APPROACHING
GALE FORCE WITHIN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ZONES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND WINDS FUNNELING
THROUGH THE MANITOU PASSAGE WON`T HURT.  SO WILL HOIST A GALE
WARNING FOR THE MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT NEARSHORE
ZONES...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE ZONES...AND WILL SPIN UP AN ADVISORY FOR WHITEFISH BAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LMZ323-341-342.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 190821
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY. QUIETER AND INCREASINGLY MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD TODAY/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE FORCE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN BY
TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1027MB HIGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA.  1000MB SURFACE LOW CENTER WITHIN THIS
BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
WITH A FRONTAL (WARM) BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PRETTY STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO...WITH 65-70 DEGREE READINGS OVER SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WAS MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS MAIN WESTERLIES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  POSITIVE TILT ELONGATED POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TO OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  LOW/MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...THOUGH
STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...00Z APX SOUNDING
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 0.30 INCH (LESS THAN 40 PERCENT OF
NORMAL).  THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM
EARLIER CLOUD COVER...AND IS MANIFESTING ITSELF AS AN EXPANDING AREA
OF STRATUS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  SOME SCATTERED HIGH
BASED STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN ALSO FOUND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER.

FLAT SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WHILE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY TRACKS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  AS THIS OCCURS PRESSURES WILL FALL ACROSS MICHIGAN
TODAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND DEVELOPING AS
SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  INCREASING RETURN FLOW ALSO DRAWS MOISTURE UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL TONIGHT (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
1.25 INCH ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MANITOBA).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: EARLY ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS FOR
TODAY...AND RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT GIVEN COMBINATION OF GOOD MOISTURE
INFLOW/WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH ADVANCING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TODAY...CURRENT THINKING WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER IS THAT CURRENT
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LOWER WILL TEND TO MIX OUT WITH TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.  00Z GRB/DTX SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHER MIXING RATIOS
GETTING PULLED TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTERACTING WITH A
LOCALIZED TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WHICH MAY END UP GENERATING  MORE
CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF TODAY.  COULD ALSO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL THIS MORNING (ERY VISIBILITY
DROPPING TO 7 MILES LOOKS LIKE AN AUSPICIOUS SIGN).  MID CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVANCES TOWARD
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING DRIZZLE FOR EASTERN UPPER
SHOULD I DECIDE TO THROW THAT INTO THE MIX...WILL HOLD OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES UNTIL THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP
TODAY...GUSTING 20-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.

TONIGHT...THINK THE INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND STRAITS REGION THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ADVECTION OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AND SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THE PLUS SIDE
WITH REGARD TO FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMES...LOOKS LIKE MOST GAMES
SHOULD END BEFORE ANY REAL ISSUES OCCUR.  PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY AND
SHEAR ALOFT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTION...AND
WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL LIMIT WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL HAIL MAY BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...RATHER WET LOOKING WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT AMPLIFIED NOAM
PATTERN SET TO GET A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BOOST...COURTESY OF STRONG
UPPER JET SLATED TO DIVE INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. SAID JET ALREADY FULLY MATURE BACK ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC...WITH NOSE OF 140+ KNOT H25 JET ALREADY ENTERING ABOVE THE
SHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DIGGING ON ITS
BACKSIDE...AND THESE WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO INITIATE RAPID WESTERN
NOAM RIDGE BUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENING INTO
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS CHANGE WILL NOT BE A QUIET ONE...WITH
PRE-TROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION RIPENING AN ATMOSPHERE FOR MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO WORK OVER. SHOWERS...WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS A RATHER SAFE BET SATURDAY ALONG LEAD CHARGING COLD
FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES POTENTIALLY KEEPING
CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PACIFIC PATTERN LOOKS
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SETTING
UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AS DEEP
TROUGHING DEVELOPS INTO WESTERN NOAM...FORCING A RAPID NORTHWARD
RETREAT OF POLAR JET INTO CENTRAL CANADA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MILDER AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...AND LIKELY WELL
BEYOND. ONLY TIME WILL TELL OF COURSE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: ALMOST ALL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...MOSTLY CENTERED ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
WEEKEND SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INTENSITY WILL ALSO NEED
TO BE ADDRESSED.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PLENTY COMING TOGETHER TO BRING A
BOUT OF WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SUPPLY THE MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
ALREADY UP NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF (OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL). LOW LEVEL JET ITSELF WILL BE EXITING STAGE RIGHT RATHER
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH BEST FORCED CONVERGENCE FROM SUCH
DOING THE SAME. UPPER JET DYNAMICS INITIALLY FOCUSED TO OUR
WEST...AS IS BEST SURFACE FORCING ALONG APPROACHING FRONT. KINDA
ENVISION INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/PERHAPS WITH ELEVATED
STORMS/PASSING OFF TO OUR EAST...POTENTIALLY NOT LEAVING MUCH UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER JET FORCING AND
MID LEVEL SUPPORT ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT SURFACED
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GIVING WHAT LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER/LIMITED INSOLATION. DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR... HOWEVER...
WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. WIND SUPPORT IS DEFINITELY THERE
FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. INSTABILITY WILL
DICTATE....WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH
(LATEST CIPS IMPACT GUIDANCE CONCURS). DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS JUST YET...AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCTS AS AVENUES TO EXPRESS THIS CONCERN.

FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING...BUT DOES NOT END
THE RAIN THREAT AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIDES OVERHEAD IN DEVELOPING
TROUGH AXIS. CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCED UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHLANDS
SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. SAME STORY GOES FOR SUNDAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE/WEAK LAKE RESPONSE KEEPING THE SHOWER THREAT GOING.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S SATURDAY...IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY CHILLIER SUNDAY...A GOOD 10 OR SO DEGREES COOLER.

TROUGHING BEGINS TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PERHAPS ONE LAST WAVE DIVING
ALONG ITS BACKSIDE LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO MID WEEK WITH GROWING
SUPPORT FOR RAPID HEIGHT RISES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH
OVERHEAD RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ABOVE COMBO SHOULD LEAD TO
QUIET CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (AND LIKELY BEYOND IF THINGS
SET UP AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS). SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY...PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING THANKS TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SLIDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDER...BUT MAINLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WHILE
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT MIXING OVER THE WATER...GRADIENT
PLUS SOME ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTION WILL SUPPORT WINDS APPROACHING
GALE FORCE WITHIN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ZONES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND WINDS FUNNELING
THROUGH THE MANITOU PASSAGE WON`T HURT.  SO WILL HOIST A GALE
WARNING FOR THE MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT NEARSHORE
ZONES...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE ZONES...AND WILL SPIN UP AN ADVISORY FOR WHITEFISH BAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LMZ323-341-342.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KDTX 190748
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
348 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESENTLY TO
OUR NORTHEAST TO TRANSLATE WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GET UNDERWAY EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH A GRADUAL SHARPENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES A
LAKE-ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND ACROSS MUCH
OF SE MICHIGAN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
SLOW RETREAT OF THE SHALLOW AND COOL AIRMASS PRESENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. UNDER FULL SUN, HOWEVER, THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPARE TO YESTERDAY`S. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH RANGES FROM LOW 60S
IN THE EASTERN THUMB TO NEAR 70 FOR WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
SHADOW. FULL DECOUPLING IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND`S WAVE, MAINLY AFTER 06Z. AS A RESULT, CLEAR
SKIES AND A VERY DRY COLUMN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT COOLING EARLY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES STABILIZE OR EVEN SLOWLY RISE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY, ALL
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES REMAIN
UPSTREAM.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TODAY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
SATURDAY. THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL FEED OFF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS DUE TO CONTINUED LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION DURING THE
DAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS MODEST ALONG THE FRONT IN MODEL DATA
NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT EFFECTIVE
AT MAINTAINING ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE HYBRID GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
LEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
BECOMING MIXED IN WITH THE INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE AND JET
AXIS. EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN GENEROUS COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL/LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORTED SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO START SATURDAY MORNING HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT THE
TRI CITIES BEFORE NOON. A VERY SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
OUTLINES A STRONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD QUICKLY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND POSITION THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER
SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL THEN
BECOME LIKELY WHEN COMBINED PEAK HEATING AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE SOLID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
RISING INTO THE 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 12C...BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIKELY MUTED BY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AVERAGING ABOUT 1000 J/KG AND 6.5 C/KM RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL
REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER AS THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE STRONG WITH
SOME VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVOLVING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING THE EVENING AND PUSHING NEAR 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE OVERACHIEVEMENT IS ALREADY
BUILT INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON CALLING FOR HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE LEADING COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS EASTWARD BY SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING LESS BUT ADEQUATE
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION
BY A COMPACT UPPER WAVE TRAILING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO
WRING OUT LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING BUT EXITING QUICKLY BY EVENING TO ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO TAKE CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED FARTHER
WEST/OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY IN THE NEW GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALLOWS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AXIS
POSITION OF THE BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING UP MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA. THE SHORT WAVE CAUGHT UP IN THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE FORCED SLOWER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALLOW
MAINTENANCE OF A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD IN THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FARTHER WEST LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION DOES PAVE THE WAY
FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SETTLE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY IN
BACKDOOR FASHION BUT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED IN THE MODEL DATA
AND WASHES OUT ENOUGH FOR JUST A MODEST REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER
AIR.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY AND PERSIST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...
STABILITY MAY STILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER SAGINAW BAY AND THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THE NEED FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MONITORED AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES
THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A NEW ROUND OF
COOLER AIR SUNDAY WHICH WILL LINGER WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE RAPID CLEARING THIS EVENING LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VSBY IN RADIATION FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THIS EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN NUDGING IN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HOLDING
OFF ON ADDING A MENTION OF FOG TO THE TAFS.

FOR DTW...THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE AND A LITTLE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN SOME PERIODIC LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).









000
FXUS63 KDTX 190748
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
348 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESENTLY TO
OUR NORTHEAST TO TRANSLATE WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GET UNDERWAY EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH A GRADUAL SHARPENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES A
LAKE-ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND ACROSS MUCH
OF SE MICHIGAN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
SLOW RETREAT OF THE SHALLOW AND COOL AIRMASS PRESENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. UNDER FULL SUN, HOWEVER, THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPARE TO YESTERDAY`S. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH RANGES FROM LOW 60S
IN THE EASTERN THUMB TO NEAR 70 FOR WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
SHADOW. FULL DECOUPLING IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND`S WAVE, MAINLY AFTER 06Z. AS A RESULT, CLEAR
SKIES AND A VERY DRY COLUMN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT COOLING EARLY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES STABILIZE OR EVEN SLOWLY RISE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY, ALL
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES REMAIN
UPSTREAM.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TODAY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
SATURDAY. THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL FEED OFF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS DUE TO CONTINUED LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION DURING THE
DAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS MODEST ALONG THE FRONT IN MODEL DATA
NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT EFFECTIVE
AT MAINTAINING ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE HYBRID GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
LEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
BECOMING MIXED IN WITH THE INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE AND JET
AXIS. EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN GENEROUS COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL/LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORTED SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO START SATURDAY MORNING HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT THE
TRI CITIES BEFORE NOON. A VERY SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
OUTLINES A STRONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD QUICKLY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND POSITION THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER
SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL THEN
BECOME LIKELY WHEN COMBINED PEAK HEATING AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE SOLID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
RISING INTO THE 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 12C...BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIKELY MUTED BY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AVERAGING ABOUT 1000 J/KG AND 6.5 C/KM RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL
REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER AS THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE STRONG WITH
SOME VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVOLVING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING THE EVENING AND PUSHING NEAR 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE OVERACHIEVEMENT IS ALREADY
BUILT INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON CALLING FOR HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE LEADING COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS EASTWARD BY SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING LESS BUT ADEQUATE
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION
BY A COMPACT UPPER WAVE TRAILING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO
WRING OUT LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING BUT EXITING QUICKLY BY EVENING TO ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO TAKE CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED FARTHER
WEST/OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY IN THE NEW GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALLOWS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AXIS
POSITION OF THE BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING UP MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA. THE SHORT WAVE CAUGHT UP IN THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE FORCED SLOWER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALLOW
MAINTENANCE OF A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD IN THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FARTHER WEST LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION DOES PAVE THE WAY
FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SETTLE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY IN
BACKDOOR FASHION BUT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED IN THE MODEL DATA
AND WASHES OUT ENOUGH FOR JUST A MODEST REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER
AIR.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY AND PERSIST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...
STABILITY MAY STILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER SAGINAW BAY AND THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THE NEED FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MONITORED AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES
THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A NEW ROUND OF
COOLER AIR SUNDAY WHICH WILL LINGER WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE RAPID CLEARING THIS EVENING LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VSBY IN RADIATION FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THIS EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN NUDGING IN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HOLDING
OFF ON ADDING A MENTION OF FOG TO THE TAFS.

FOR DTW...THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE AND A LITTLE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN SOME PERIODIC LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).









000
FXUS63 KDTX 190748
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
348 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESENTLY TO
OUR NORTHEAST TO TRANSLATE WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GET UNDERWAY EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH A GRADUAL SHARPENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES A
LAKE-ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND ACROSS MUCH
OF SE MICHIGAN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
SLOW RETREAT OF THE SHALLOW AND COOL AIRMASS PRESENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. UNDER FULL SUN, HOWEVER, THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPARE TO YESTERDAY`S. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH RANGES FROM LOW 60S
IN THE EASTERN THUMB TO NEAR 70 FOR WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
SHADOW. FULL DECOUPLING IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND`S WAVE, MAINLY AFTER 06Z. AS A RESULT, CLEAR
SKIES AND A VERY DRY COLUMN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT COOLING EARLY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES STABILIZE OR EVEN SLOWLY RISE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY, ALL
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES REMAIN
UPSTREAM.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TODAY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
SATURDAY. THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL FEED OFF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS DUE TO CONTINUED LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION DURING THE
DAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS MODEST ALONG THE FRONT IN MODEL DATA
NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT EFFECTIVE
AT MAINTAINING ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE HYBRID GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
LEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
BECOMING MIXED IN WITH THE INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE AND JET
AXIS. EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN GENEROUS COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL/LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORTED SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO START SATURDAY MORNING HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT THE
TRI CITIES BEFORE NOON. A VERY SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
OUTLINES A STRONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD QUICKLY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND POSITION THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER
SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL THEN
BECOME LIKELY WHEN COMBINED PEAK HEATING AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE SOLID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
RISING INTO THE 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 12C...BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIKELY MUTED BY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AVERAGING ABOUT 1000 J/KG AND 6.5 C/KM RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL
REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER AS THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE STRONG WITH
SOME VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVOLVING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING THE EVENING AND PUSHING NEAR 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE OVERACHIEVEMENT IS ALREADY
BUILT INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON CALLING FOR HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE LEADING COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS EASTWARD BY SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING LESS BUT ADEQUATE
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION
BY A COMPACT UPPER WAVE TRAILING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO
WRING OUT LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING BUT EXITING QUICKLY BY EVENING TO ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO TAKE CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED FARTHER
WEST/OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY IN THE NEW GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALLOWS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AXIS
POSITION OF THE BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING UP MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA. THE SHORT WAVE CAUGHT UP IN THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE FORCED SLOWER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALLOW
MAINTENANCE OF A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD IN THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FARTHER WEST LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION DOES PAVE THE WAY
FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SETTLE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY IN
BACKDOOR FASHION BUT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED IN THE MODEL DATA
AND WASHES OUT ENOUGH FOR JUST A MODEST REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER
AIR.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY AND PERSIST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...
STABILITY MAY STILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER SAGINAW BAY AND THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THE NEED FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MONITORED AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES
THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A NEW ROUND OF
COOLER AIR SUNDAY WHICH WILL LINGER WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE RAPID CLEARING THIS EVENING LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VSBY IN RADIATION FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THIS EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN NUDGING IN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HOLDING
OFF ON ADDING A MENTION OF FOG TO THE TAFS.

FOR DTW...THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE AND A LITTLE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN SOME PERIODIC LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).









000
FXUS63 KDTX 190748
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
348 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESENTLY TO
OUR NORTHEAST TO TRANSLATE WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GET UNDERWAY EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH A GRADUAL SHARPENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES A
LAKE-ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND ACROSS MUCH
OF SE MICHIGAN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
SLOW RETREAT OF THE SHALLOW AND COOL AIRMASS PRESENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. UNDER FULL SUN, HOWEVER, THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPARE TO YESTERDAY`S. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH RANGES FROM LOW 60S
IN THE EASTERN THUMB TO NEAR 70 FOR WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
SHADOW. FULL DECOUPLING IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND`S WAVE, MAINLY AFTER 06Z. AS A RESULT, CLEAR
SKIES AND A VERY DRY COLUMN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT COOLING EARLY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES STABILIZE OR EVEN SLOWLY RISE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY, ALL
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES REMAIN
UPSTREAM.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TODAY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
SATURDAY. THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL FEED OFF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS DUE TO CONTINUED LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION DURING THE
DAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS MODEST ALONG THE FRONT IN MODEL DATA
NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT EFFECTIVE
AT MAINTAINING ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE HYBRID GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
LEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
BECOMING MIXED IN WITH THE INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE AND JET
AXIS. EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN GENEROUS COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL/LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORTED SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO START SATURDAY MORNING HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT THE
TRI CITIES BEFORE NOON. A VERY SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
OUTLINES A STRONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD QUICKLY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND POSITION THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER
SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL THEN
BECOME LIKELY WHEN COMBINED PEAK HEATING AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE SOLID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
RISING INTO THE 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 12C...BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIKELY MUTED BY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AVERAGING ABOUT 1000 J/KG AND 6.5 C/KM RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL
REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER AS THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE STRONG WITH
SOME VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVOLVING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING THE EVENING AND PUSHING NEAR 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE OVERACHIEVEMENT IS ALREADY
BUILT INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON CALLING FOR HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE LEADING COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS EASTWARD BY SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING LESS BUT ADEQUATE
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION
BY A COMPACT UPPER WAVE TRAILING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO
WRING OUT LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING BUT EXITING QUICKLY BY EVENING TO ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO TAKE CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED FARTHER
WEST/OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY IN THE NEW GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALLOWS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AXIS
POSITION OF THE BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING UP MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA. THE SHORT WAVE CAUGHT UP IN THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE FORCED SLOWER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALLOW
MAINTENANCE OF A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD IN THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FARTHER WEST LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION DOES PAVE THE WAY
FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SETTLE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY IN
BACKDOOR FASHION BUT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED IN THE MODEL DATA
AND WASHES OUT ENOUGH FOR JUST A MODEST REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER
AIR.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY AND PERSIST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...
STABILITY MAY STILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER SAGINAW BAY AND THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THE NEED FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MONITORED AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES
THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A NEW ROUND OF
COOLER AIR SUNDAY WHICH WILL LINGER WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE RAPID CLEARING THIS EVENING LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VSBY IN RADIATION FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THIS EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN NUDGING IN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HOLDING
OFF ON ADDING A MENTION OF FOG TO THE TAFS.

FOR DTW...THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE AND A LITTLE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN SOME PERIODIC LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).









000
FXUS63 KMQT 190740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY WILL SLOWLY WORK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT ON RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
EAST. ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIMIT COOLING AND LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST...THOUGH A FEW
PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EAST HALF.

FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO OVERALL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY 15-20MPH
SOUTH TO SSW WIND ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1KM AGL WINDS APPROACHING 50S KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH
MIXING OCCURS...SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC.
CURRENTLY THINKING GUSTS OF 30-35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT IF ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE
AREA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DELAYED AND CUT BACK ON POPS SOMEWHAT
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET COUNTERACTS SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER NOON...AND THE CENTRAL CWA UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
HALF.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH
MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCING THE
TROUGH ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT MOVED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY FOR SAT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA SAT NIGHT AS NEXT ENERGY ARRIVES WITH MORE MOISTURE. DID
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
TUE WITH A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN IS A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING ABOVE NORMAL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRES WILL
BRING TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER
MI SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS (IFR CIGS) SPREADING N TO KSAW TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WHILE S WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING AT KIWD...LOW
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID
MORNING. WITH FLOW UNDERGOING MORE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPING BEFORE
REACHING KCMX...OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF
WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS HIGHER
THERE THIS AFTN. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF TROF...
ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE AT
KCMX/KIWD DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT
TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHIFTING EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI
SHORELINE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND A FAIRLY STABLE NEAR-WATER
LAYER PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER






000
FXUS63 KMQT 190740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY WILL SLOWLY WORK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT ON RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
EAST. ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIMIT COOLING AND LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST...THOUGH A FEW
PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EAST HALF.

FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO OVERALL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY 15-20MPH
SOUTH TO SSW WIND ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1KM AGL WINDS APPROACHING 50S KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH
MIXING OCCURS...SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC.
CURRENTLY THINKING GUSTS OF 30-35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT IF ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE
AREA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DELAYED AND CUT BACK ON POPS SOMEWHAT
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET COUNTERACTS SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER NOON...AND THE CENTRAL CWA UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
HALF.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH
MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCING THE
TROUGH ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT MOVED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY FOR SAT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA SAT NIGHT AS NEXT ENERGY ARRIVES WITH MORE MOISTURE. DID
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
TUE WITH A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN IS A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING ABOVE NORMAL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRES WILL
BRING TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER
MI SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS (IFR CIGS) SPREADING N TO KSAW TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WHILE S WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING AT KIWD...LOW
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID
MORNING. WITH FLOW UNDERGOING MORE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPING BEFORE
REACHING KCMX...OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF
WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS HIGHER
THERE THIS AFTN. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF TROF...
ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE AT
KCMX/KIWD DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT
TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHIFTING EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI
SHORELINE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND A FAIRLY STABLE NEAR-WATER
LAYER PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
MILDER AIRMASS INTO MICHIGAN THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE
UPPER PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS WAS MOVING ONSHORE IN WESTERN CANADA
AND THE NW U.S. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS
STRENGTHENING SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE DEVELOP HERE IN SW MICHIGAN...OVERALL
THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL END UP SUFFICIENT AS WELL. THE 0 TO
1 KM SHEAR AND HELICITY DO SUPPORT AND ELEVATED RISK FOR TORNADOES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVORED THE 18Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. OVERALL I KEPT THE HIGH POPS GOING.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE UNDERGOING A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISBYS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY AT ALL THE TERMINALS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS IS AT LAN AND JXN WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTH
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT MKG.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT ALL ZONES WILL SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUPPORTS THE HIGHEST WAVES UP NORTH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
LATER SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS AWAY. BY 00Z MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE
STORMS WILL STALL OUT...THUS 1 TO 2 HR HEAVY RAIN DURATION IS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES IF ANY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ847>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>846.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS






000
FXUS63 KGRR 190730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
MILDER AIRMASS INTO MICHIGAN THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE
UPPER PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS WAS MOVING ONSHORE IN WESTERN CANADA
AND THE NW U.S. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS
STRENGTHENING SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE DEVELOP HERE IN SW MICHIGAN...OVERALL
THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL END UP SUFFICIENT AS WELL. THE 0 TO
1 KM SHEAR AND HELICITY DO SUPPORT AND ELEVATED RISK FOR TORNADOES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVORED THE 18Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. OVERALL I KEPT THE HIGH POPS GOING.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE UNDERGOING A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISBYS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY AT ALL THE TERMINALS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS IS AT LAN AND JXN WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTH
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT MKG.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT ALL ZONES WILL SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUPPORTS THE HIGHEST WAVES UP NORTH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
LATER SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS AWAY. BY 00Z MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE
STORMS WILL STALL OUT...THUS 1 TO 2 HR HEAVY RAIN DURATION IS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES IF ANY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ847>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>846.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 190525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY WILL SLOWLY WORK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT ON RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
EAST. ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIMIT COOLING AND LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST...THOUGH A FEW
PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EAST HALF.

FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO OVERALL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY 15-20MPH
SOUTH TO SSW WIND ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1KM AGL WINDS APPROACHING 50S KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH
MIXING OCCURS...SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC.
CURRENTLY THINKING GUSTS OF 30-35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT IF ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE
AREA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DELAYED AND CUT BACK ON POPS SOMEWHAT
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET COUNTERACTS SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER NOON...AND THE CENTRAL CWA UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
HALF.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
MAIN REASON THIS OCCURS IS 125+ KT H25 JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS JET
ENERGY REACHES NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY IT WILL HELP DEVELOP TROUGH
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. INITIAL WAVE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SHORTWAVE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL BLO 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AS THE WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO AT LEAST TO H9/H875 WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE
70S IF THERE IS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MUCH DIFFERENT STORY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR BARELY REACHING ABOVE 50 DEGREES
AND ONLY INTO THE 50S FARTHER INLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. NOTHING TOO HIGH IMPACT IN TERMS OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH ON LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORE...NOTHING TOO ATYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

BACK TO THE IMPACTS TIED TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LARGE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GREATEST SURGE OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL ONLY OCCURS FOR
BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE H85 JET VEERS MORE WEST BY
12Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE PROFILE BLO AN INVERSION AT H9-H85...BUT BLYR WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TO
JAMES BAY WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERALL...COULD SEE SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LK MICHIGAN WITH SOME GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON THE LAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN CWA. ATTM THINK THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

ADDITIONAL IMPACT COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTN AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES UP OVER 1500J/KG AND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY...0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KTS. NAM
QUITE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS MUCH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER 30 KTS SHOW SOME INCREASE 15-21Z
SATURDAY OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA...BUT STILL REMAIN MAINLY BLO 10
PCT. FREEZING LEVEL IS 9-11KFT AND HEIGHT THAT CORES ALOFT WOULD
HAVE TO REACH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE 1 INCH HAIL IS 27-30KFT...
SO LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
STEEP...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR H9-H7 AND STRONG WINDS H7-H5...SUPPOSE
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT TOO SFC. PRIMARY AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN SW H85 JET AND WHERE THE SFC DWPNTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S.
DOES SEEM IF TIMING WORKS OUT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME TSRA WITH COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP H7-H4 LAPSE RATES/COLD POCKET AT H5/. NO STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
20 KTS BY THIS TIME. BESIDES THE CHILL THAT WILL BE IN THE AIR ON
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
H85-H5 THERMAL TROUGHING/EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS. WATER TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE IN THE 6-8C RANGE BASED ON BUOYS AND SHIP
REPORTS. IMMEDIATE NSH AREAS OF SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR MAY BE OVER 10C
IN SOME SPOTS BUT THAT IS LOCALIZED. THEREFORE WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING
ABOVE 0C WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TRENDING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SFC RIDGE EXPANDING EAST FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...TROUGHING ALOFT DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINT OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RE-INFORCING SFC TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WAVE AND
WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...KEEP BULK OF WAVE AND MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN MUCH SHRA. SINCE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THIS WAY WITH 12Z
RUN...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY AT THE SFC THEN
ALOFT AS WELL BUILDS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS
LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND AFTN SFC DWPNTS IN THE 30S INDICATE
THERE COULD BE FROST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CWA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT /H85 TEMPS OVER
10C/ WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH
THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRES WILL
BRING TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER
MI SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS (IFR CIGS) SPREADING N TO KSAW TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WHILE S WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING AT KIWD...LOW
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID
MORNING. WITH FLOW UNDERGOING MORE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPING BEFORE
REACHING KCMX...OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF
WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS HIGHER
THERE THIS AFTN. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF TROF...
ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE AT
KCMX/KIWD DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT
TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHIFTING EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI
SHORELINE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND A FAIRLY STABLE NEAR-WATER
LAYER PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER







000
FXUS63 KMQT 190525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY WILL SLOWLY WORK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT ON RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
EAST. ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIMIT COOLING AND LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST...THOUGH A FEW
PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EAST HALF.

FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO OVERALL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY 15-20MPH
SOUTH TO SSW WIND ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1KM AGL WINDS APPROACHING 50S KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH
MIXING OCCURS...SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC.
CURRENTLY THINKING GUSTS OF 30-35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT IF ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE
AREA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DELAYED AND CUT BACK ON POPS SOMEWHAT
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET COUNTERACTS SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER NOON...AND THE CENTRAL CWA UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
HALF.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
MAIN REASON THIS OCCURS IS 125+ KT H25 JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS JET
ENERGY REACHES NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY IT WILL HELP DEVELOP TROUGH
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. INITIAL WAVE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SHORTWAVE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL BLO 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AS THE WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO AT LEAST TO H9/H875 WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE
70S IF THERE IS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MUCH DIFFERENT STORY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR BARELY REACHING ABOVE 50 DEGREES
AND ONLY INTO THE 50S FARTHER INLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. NOTHING TOO HIGH IMPACT IN TERMS OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH ON LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORE...NOTHING TOO ATYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

BACK TO THE IMPACTS TIED TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LARGE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GREATEST SURGE OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL ONLY OCCURS FOR
BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE H85 JET VEERS MORE WEST BY
12Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE PROFILE BLO AN INVERSION AT H9-H85...BUT BLYR WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TO
JAMES BAY WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERALL...COULD SEE SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LK MICHIGAN WITH SOME GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON THE LAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN CWA. ATTM THINK THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

ADDITIONAL IMPACT COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTN AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES UP OVER 1500J/KG AND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY...0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KTS. NAM
QUITE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS MUCH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER 30 KTS SHOW SOME INCREASE 15-21Z
SATURDAY OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA...BUT STILL REMAIN MAINLY BLO 10
PCT. FREEZING LEVEL IS 9-11KFT AND HEIGHT THAT CORES ALOFT WOULD
HAVE TO REACH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE 1 INCH HAIL IS 27-30KFT...
SO LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
STEEP...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR H9-H7 AND STRONG WINDS H7-H5...SUPPOSE
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT TOO SFC. PRIMARY AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN SW H85 JET AND WHERE THE SFC DWPNTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S.
DOES SEEM IF TIMING WORKS OUT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME TSRA WITH COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP H7-H4 LAPSE RATES/COLD POCKET AT H5/. NO STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
20 KTS BY THIS TIME. BESIDES THE CHILL THAT WILL BE IN THE AIR ON
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
H85-H5 THERMAL TROUGHING/EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS. WATER TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE IN THE 6-8C RANGE BASED ON BUOYS AND SHIP
REPORTS. IMMEDIATE NSH AREAS OF SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR MAY BE OVER 10C
IN SOME SPOTS BUT THAT IS LOCALIZED. THEREFORE WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING
ABOVE 0C WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TRENDING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SFC RIDGE EXPANDING EAST FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...TROUGHING ALOFT DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINT OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RE-INFORCING SFC TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WAVE AND
WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...KEEP BULK OF WAVE AND MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN MUCH SHRA. SINCE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THIS WAY WITH 12Z
RUN...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY AT THE SFC THEN
ALOFT AS WELL BUILDS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS
LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND AFTN SFC DWPNTS IN THE 30S INDICATE
THERE COULD BE FROST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CWA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT /H85 TEMPS OVER
10C/ WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH
THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRES WILL
BRING TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER
MI SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS (IFR CIGS) SPREADING N TO KSAW TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WHILE S WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING AT KIWD...LOW
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID
MORNING. WITH FLOW UNDERGOING MORE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPING BEFORE
REACHING KCMX...OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF
WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS HIGHER
THERE THIS AFTN. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF TROF...
ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE AT
KCMX/KIWD DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT
TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHIFTING EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI
SHORELINE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND A FAIRLY STABLE NEAR-WATER
LAYER PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER








000
FXUS63 KDTX 190350
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE RAPID CLEARING THIS EVENING LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VSBY IN RADIATION FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THIS EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN NUDGING IN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HOLDING
OFF ON ADDING A MENTION OF FOG TO THE TAFS.

FOR DTW...THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE AND A LITTLE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN SOME PERIODIC LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 915 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATE...

THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A SHARP INVERSION BASED NEAR 843MB.
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WAS PRESENT UNDER THIS INVERSION.
OF NOTE HOWEVER WAS THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION.
ONGOING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS LOWERING THIS INVERSION AND
HELPING TO MIX SOME OF THIS DRY AIR INTO THE MOIST LAYER...WHICH
LED TO A RAPID CLEARING TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT UNDER THE E-SE FLOW HAS HOWEVER HELD THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MI AND PORTIONS OF METRO
DETROIT AND THE IRISH HILLS. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY LINGER UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION. RECENT TRENDS
HOWEVER SUGGEST A SLIGHT LOWERING OF FORECAST CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FCST MIN TEMPS STILL ARE REFLECTIVE OF A PERIOD
OF GOOD COOLING OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 190350
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE RAPID CLEARING THIS EVENING LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VSBY IN RADIATION FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THIS EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN NUDGING IN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HOLDING
OFF ON ADDING A MENTION OF FOG TO THE TAFS.

FOR DTW...THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE AND A LITTLE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN SOME PERIODIC LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 915 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATE...

THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A SHARP INVERSION BASED NEAR 843MB.
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WAS PRESENT UNDER THIS INVERSION.
OF NOTE HOWEVER WAS THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION.
ONGOING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS LOWERING THIS INVERSION AND
HELPING TO MIX SOME OF THIS DRY AIR INTO THE MOIST LAYER...WHICH
LED TO A RAPID CLEARING TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT UNDER THE E-SE FLOW HAS HOWEVER HELD THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MI AND PORTIONS OF METRO
DETROIT AND THE IRISH HILLS. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY LINGER UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION. RECENT TRENDS
HOWEVER SUGGEST A SLIGHT LOWERING OF FORECAST CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FCST MIN TEMPS STILL ARE REFLECTIVE OF A PERIOD
OF GOOD COOLING OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 190350
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE RAPID CLEARING THIS EVENING LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VSBY IN RADIATION FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THIS EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN NUDGING IN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HOLDING
OFF ON ADDING A MENTION OF FOG TO THE TAFS.

FOR DTW...THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE AND A LITTLE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN SOME PERIODIC LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 915 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATE...

THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A SHARP INVERSION BASED NEAR 843MB.
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WAS PRESENT UNDER THIS INVERSION.
OF NOTE HOWEVER WAS THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION.
ONGOING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS LOWERING THIS INVERSION AND
HELPING TO MIX SOME OF THIS DRY AIR INTO THE MOIST LAYER...WHICH
LED TO A RAPID CLEARING TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT UNDER THE E-SE FLOW HAS HOWEVER HELD THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MI AND PORTIONS OF METRO
DETROIT AND THE IRISH HILLS. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY LINGER UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION. RECENT TRENDS
HOWEVER SUGGEST A SLIGHT LOWERING OF FORECAST CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FCST MIN TEMPS STILL ARE REFLECTIVE OF A PERIOD
OF GOOD COOLING OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 190350
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE RAPID CLEARING THIS EVENING LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VSBY IN RADIATION FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THIS EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN NUDGING IN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HOLDING
OFF ON ADDING A MENTION OF FOG TO THE TAFS.

FOR DTW...THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE AND A LITTLE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN SOME PERIODIC LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 915 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATE...

THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A SHARP INVERSION BASED NEAR 843MB.
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WAS PRESENT UNDER THIS INVERSION.
OF NOTE HOWEVER WAS THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION.
ONGOING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS LOWERING THIS INVERSION AND
HELPING TO MIX SOME OF THIS DRY AIR INTO THE MOIST LAYER...WHICH
LED TO A RAPID CLEARING TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT UNDER THE E-SE FLOW HAS HOWEVER HELD THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MI AND PORTIONS OF METRO
DETROIT AND THE IRISH HILLS. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY LINGER UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION. RECENT TRENDS
HOWEVER SUGGEST A SLIGHT LOWERING OF FORECAST CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FCST MIN TEMPS STILL ARE REFLECTIVE OF A PERIOD
OF GOOD COOLING OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KAPX 190345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BIG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST NNE OF KANJ THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER. MORNING STRATUS DECK HAS MIXED/ERODED TO A
DECENT EXTENT ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE FOR THE FAR E/SE PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ON TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE
TODAYS MIXING AND CLEARING TRENDS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
TONIGHT STILL BELIEVE THAT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER
SITTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO WISCONSIN WILL SIMPLY GET
RECYCLED BACK NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
EXPANDING STRATUS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM/RUC/GFS 925 MB RH FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT IDEA. OF COURSE THAT WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST DEVELOPMENT/LONGEVITY.

STILL...A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS/FROST AS ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
REALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE TO LATE IN THE DAY (FROST ADVISORY
AT 11 PM IS REALLY NOT THAT HELPFUL). IF IT DOES NOT CLOUD BACK
UP...SOME OF THE COLD INLAND AREAS WILL BE SITTING AT 28 DEGREES
TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW...AM BANKING ON THE CLOUDS AND WILL
JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NE
LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE I THINK
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST. BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM A FROST
ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...BECOMING BREEZY AND WARMER FRIDAY...
...AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL AND PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...WILL ASSESS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN QUEBEC EARLY FRIDAY...AND
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THOUGH OVERALL AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY /H8-H5 RH INITIALLY 25-40%/ CONCERN REMAINS
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER EARLY - IN ABSENCE OF STRONG DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND/OR DEEP MIXING THURSDAY (NOT UNLIKE CLOUD PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER WI). FORECAST WILL REFLECT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS EARLY
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER/ WITH WARMING AND MIXING QUICKLY LEADING TO
GREATER SUN BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA EARLY FRIDAY WILL RACE ESEWD...AND RESULT IN HEIGHT
FALLS AND UPPER FLOW AMPLIFICATION OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY. STRONG H8 SW FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM />45 KTS/ WILL
ADVECT ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION /WITH H8 DEW POINTS NEARING
+15C BY SATURDAY MORNING/. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
CENTRAL U.P. TO WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EWD
INTO ERN UPPER AND NW LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOW. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY APPEARS HIGHER - THOUGH NOT A
SLAM DUNK BY ANY STRETCH. WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR ONGOING
NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EARLY SATURDAY...DESTABILIZATION WILL AS USUAL
BE AN ISSUE (NOT TO MENTION IMPACT OF A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE). HOWEVER...NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR >1K J/KG
MLCAPE MIDDAY OVER NRN LOWER...WITH DEEP/STRONG QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW (H8 WINDS AROUND 40 KTS...AND H5 WINDS AROUND 50 KTS). IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE WIND
PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A GOOD THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AREA WIDE AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HEADS EAST OF REGION...TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS SHORT WAVE
ROTATES EWD. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
IMPACTING NRN MI...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL EXITING REGION. WILL RETAIN SMALL RISK FOR
THUNDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AND FEATURE DEEP
TROUGHING OVER NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING WEST.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT/LIFT ENEWD AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NRN MICHIGAN...THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOLISH TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER BY MIDWEEK. AS USUAL...SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE LAST SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DROP INTO MEAN
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE IN EXITS /THE LATEST GFS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN
ECMWF/. GREATER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF...AND GFS RUNS
THAT ARE TRENDING WEAKER...WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SOMEWHAT WEAKER
ECMWF. HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 MONDAY WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THE MIDWEEK WARMUP WILL BE THE START OF A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
(AND BEYOND?). THAT SAID...LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
TRANSITION SEASONS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR EXHIBITING POOR CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN-TO-RUN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY...PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING THANKS TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SLIDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDER...BUT MAINLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE A GOOD BET FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
NEARSHORE AREAS. SOME GUSTS GETTING TO AROUND GALE FORCE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOIST A GALE WATCH
ACCORDINGLY.

WINDS DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY AND VEER NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT FALL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 190345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BIG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST NNE OF KANJ THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER. MORNING STRATUS DECK HAS MIXED/ERODED TO A
DECENT EXTENT ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE FOR THE FAR E/SE PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ON TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE
TODAYS MIXING AND CLEARING TRENDS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
TONIGHT STILL BELIEVE THAT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER
SITTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO WISCONSIN WILL SIMPLY GET
RECYCLED BACK NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
EXPANDING STRATUS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM/RUC/GFS 925 MB RH FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT IDEA. OF COURSE THAT WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST DEVELOPMENT/LONGEVITY.

STILL...A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS/FROST AS ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
REALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE TO LATE IN THE DAY (FROST ADVISORY
AT 11 PM IS REALLY NOT THAT HELPFUL). IF IT DOES NOT CLOUD BACK
UP...SOME OF THE COLD INLAND AREAS WILL BE SITTING AT 28 DEGREES
TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW...AM BANKING ON THE CLOUDS AND WILL
JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NE
LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE I THINK
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST. BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM A FROST
ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...BECOMING BREEZY AND WARMER FRIDAY...
...AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL AND PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...WILL ASSESS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN QUEBEC EARLY FRIDAY...AND
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THOUGH OVERALL AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY /H8-H5 RH INITIALLY 25-40%/ CONCERN REMAINS
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER EARLY - IN ABSENCE OF STRONG DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND/OR DEEP MIXING THURSDAY (NOT UNLIKE CLOUD PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER WI). FORECAST WILL REFLECT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS EARLY
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER/ WITH WARMING AND MIXING QUICKLY LEADING TO
GREATER SUN BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA EARLY FRIDAY WILL RACE ESEWD...AND RESULT IN HEIGHT
FALLS AND UPPER FLOW AMPLIFICATION OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY. STRONG H8 SW FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM />45 KTS/ WILL
ADVECT ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION /WITH H8 DEW POINTS NEARING
+15C BY SATURDAY MORNING/. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
CENTRAL U.P. TO WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EWD
INTO ERN UPPER AND NW LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOW. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY APPEARS HIGHER - THOUGH NOT A
SLAM DUNK BY ANY STRETCH. WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR ONGOING
NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EARLY SATURDAY...DESTABILIZATION WILL AS USUAL
BE AN ISSUE (NOT TO MENTION IMPACT OF A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE). HOWEVER...NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR >1K J/KG
MLCAPE MIDDAY OVER NRN LOWER...WITH DEEP/STRONG QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW (H8 WINDS AROUND 40 KTS...AND H5 WINDS AROUND 50 KTS). IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE WIND
PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A GOOD THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AREA WIDE AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HEADS EAST OF REGION...TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS SHORT WAVE
ROTATES EWD. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
IMPACTING NRN MI...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL EXITING REGION. WILL RETAIN SMALL RISK FOR
THUNDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AND FEATURE DEEP
TROUGHING OVER NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING WEST.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT/LIFT ENEWD AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NRN MICHIGAN...THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOLISH TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER BY MIDWEEK. AS USUAL...SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE LAST SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DROP INTO MEAN
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE IN EXITS /THE LATEST GFS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN
ECMWF/. GREATER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF...AND GFS RUNS
THAT ARE TRENDING WEAKER...WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SOMEWHAT WEAKER
ECMWF. HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 MONDAY WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THE MIDWEEK WARMUP WILL BE THE START OF A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
(AND BEYOND?). THAT SAID...LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
TRANSITION SEASONS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR EXHIBITING POOR CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN-TO-RUN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY...PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING THANKS TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SLIDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDER...BUT MAINLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE A GOOD BET FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
NEARSHORE AREAS. SOME GUSTS GETTING TO AROUND GALE FORCE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOIST A GALE WATCH
ACCORDINGLY.

WINDS DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY AND VEER NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT FALL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190342
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.  IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER CENTRAL LOWER TO
AROUND 80 OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE DRY.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ALSO
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT... MAINLY FROM
GRR TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ALREADY SEEING SOME 1-3 MILE
VISIBILITIES AT BIG RAPIDS AND MT PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COUPLE CONCERNS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST TONIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.

THE FROST POTENTIAL SEEMS REDUCED TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
BEHIND A DYING COLD FRONT REMAIN MOIST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE AREA A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT SO RAISE MINS SLIGHTLY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH LATE
TONIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND JUST HOW
UNSTABLE WE BECOME.  WITH A QUICKER FRONT...AS THE GFS SHOWS...WE
WOULD CLOUD OVER WITH SHOWERS SPREADING IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INSTABILITY.  THE ECMWF AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A SLOWER FRONT...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.  AS LONG AS WE ARE ABLE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE IN THE 40-50 KTS RANGE FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 2K FT SUGGESTING A WIND THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM.  AT THIS POINT I AM LEANING TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WITH THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z SAT AND
02Z SUN.  DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE MODE...BUT SOME
SEVERE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE TOO.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER SATURDAY EVENING.

UNTIL THEN FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY NICE DAY. SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS TOWARD NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK.  TOUGH SATURDAY MAX TEMP FORECAST
DUE TO TIMING ISSUES STATED ABOVE.  HAVE UPPER 60S OVER THE NW WHERE
THE SHOWERS ARRIVE FIRST...WHILE SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY
HIT 80 IF THERE IS A DELAY IN THE PCPN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ZONES. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS RISE WITH UPPER RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISBYS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY AT ALL THE TERMINALS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS IS AT LAN AND JXN WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTH
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT MKG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON FRIDAY.  WE MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LONG
FETCH.  THESE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER WAVES
SHOULD BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS.  IT WILL LIKELY STAY
ROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.  THE
WINDS LIGHTEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SHIFTING TO THE NW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY.  OVERALL
EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL SEE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR TWO INCHES SATURDAY
EVENING...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK








000
FXUS63 KGRR 190342
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.  IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER CENTRAL LOWER TO
AROUND 80 OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE DRY.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ALSO
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT... MAINLY FROM
GRR TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ALREADY SEEING SOME 1-3 MILE
VISIBILITIES AT BIG RAPIDS AND MT PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COUPLE CONCERNS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST TONIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.

THE FROST POTENTIAL SEEMS REDUCED TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
BEHIND A DYING COLD FRONT REMAIN MOIST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE AREA A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT SO RAISE MINS SLIGHTLY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH LATE
TONIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND JUST HOW
UNSTABLE WE BECOME.  WITH A QUICKER FRONT...AS THE GFS SHOWS...WE
WOULD CLOUD OVER WITH SHOWERS SPREADING IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INSTABILITY.  THE ECMWF AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A SLOWER FRONT...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.  AS LONG AS WE ARE ABLE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE IN THE 40-50 KTS RANGE FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 2K FT SUGGESTING A WIND THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM.  AT THIS POINT I AM LEANING TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WITH THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z SAT AND
02Z SUN.  DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE MODE...BUT SOME
SEVERE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE TOO.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER SATURDAY EVENING.

UNTIL THEN FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY NICE DAY. SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS TOWARD NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK.  TOUGH SATURDAY MAX TEMP FORECAST
DUE TO TIMING ISSUES STATED ABOVE.  HAVE UPPER 60S OVER THE NW WHERE
THE SHOWERS ARRIVE FIRST...WHILE SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY
HIT 80 IF THERE IS A DELAY IN THE PCPN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ZONES. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS RISE WITH UPPER RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISBYS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY AT ALL THE TERMINALS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS IS AT LAN AND JXN WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTH
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT MKG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON FRIDAY.  WE MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LONG
FETCH.  THESE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER WAVES
SHOULD BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS.  IT WILL LIKELY STAY
ROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.  THE
WINDS LIGHTEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SHIFTING TO THE NW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY.  OVERALL
EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL SEE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR TWO INCHES SATURDAY
EVENING...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK








000
FXUS63 KGRR 190342
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.  IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER CENTRAL LOWER TO
AROUND 80 OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE DRY.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ALSO
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT... MAINLY FROM
GRR TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ALREADY SEEING SOME 1-3 MILE
VISIBILITIES AT BIG RAPIDS AND MT PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COUPLE CONCERNS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST TONIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.

THE FROST POTENTIAL SEEMS REDUCED TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
BEHIND A DYING COLD FRONT REMAIN MOIST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE AREA A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT SO RAISE MINS SLIGHTLY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH LATE
TONIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND JUST HOW
UNSTABLE WE BECOME.  WITH A QUICKER FRONT...AS THE GFS SHOWS...WE
WOULD CLOUD OVER WITH SHOWERS SPREADING IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INSTABILITY.  THE ECMWF AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A SLOWER FRONT...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.  AS LONG AS WE ARE ABLE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE IN THE 40-50 KTS RANGE FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 2K FT SUGGESTING A WIND THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM.  AT THIS POINT I AM LEANING TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WITH THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z SAT AND
02Z SUN.  DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE MODE...BUT SOME
SEVERE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE TOO.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER SATURDAY EVENING.

UNTIL THEN FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY NICE DAY. SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS TOWARD NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK.  TOUGH SATURDAY MAX TEMP FORECAST
DUE TO TIMING ISSUES STATED ABOVE.  HAVE UPPER 60S OVER THE NW WHERE
THE SHOWERS ARRIVE FIRST...WHILE SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY
HIT 80 IF THERE IS A DELAY IN THE PCPN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ZONES. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS RISE WITH UPPER RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISBYS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY AT ALL THE TERMINALS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS IS AT LAN AND JXN WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTH
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT MKG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON FRIDAY.  WE MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LONG
FETCH.  THESE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER WAVES
SHOULD BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS.  IT WILL LIKELY STAY
ROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.  THE
WINDS LIGHTEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SHIFTING TO THE NW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY.  OVERALL
EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL SEE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR TWO INCHES SATURDAY
EVENING...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK








000
FXUS63 KGRR 190342
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.  IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER CENTRAL LOWER TO
AROUND 80 OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE DRY.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ALSO
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT... MAINLY FROM
GRR TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ALREADY SEEING SOME 1-3 MILE
VISIBILITIES AT BIG RAPIDS AND MT PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COUPLE CONCERNS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST TONIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.

THE FROST POTENTIAL SEEMS REDUCED TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
BEHIND A DYING COLD FRONT REMAIN MOIST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE AREA A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT SO RAISE MINS SLIGHTLY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH LATE
TONIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND JUST HOW
UNSTABLE WE BECOME.  WITH A QUICKER FRONT...AS THE GFS SHOWS...WE
WOULD CLOUD OVER WITH SHOWERS SPREADING IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INSTABILITY.  THE ECMWF AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A SLOWER FRONT...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.  AS LONG AS WE ARE ABLE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE IN THE 40-50 KTS RANGE FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 2K FT SUGGESTING A WIND THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM.  AT THIS POINT I AM LEANING TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WITH THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z SAT AND
02Z SUN.  DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE MODE...BUT SOME
SEVERE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE TOO.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER SATURDAY EVENING.

UNTIL THEN FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY NICE DAY. SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS TOWARD NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK.  TOUGH SATURDAY MAX TEMP FORECAST
DUE TO TIMING ISSUES STATED ABOVE.  HAVE UPPER 60S OVER THE NW WHERE
THE SHOWERS ARRIVE FIRST...WHILE SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY
HIT 80 IF THERE IS A DELAY IN THE PCPN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ZONES. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS RISE WITH UPPER RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISBYS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY AT ALL THE TERMINALS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS IS AT LAN AND JXN WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTH
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT MKG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON FRIDAY.  WE MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LONG
FETCH.  THESE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER WAVES
SHOULD BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS.  IT WILL LIKELY STAY
ROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.  THE
WINDS LIGHTEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SHIFTING TO THE NW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY.  OVERALL
EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL SEE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR TWO INCHES SATURDAY
EVENING...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK








000
FXUS63 KGRR 190240
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1040 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.  IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER CENTRAL LOWER TO
AROUND 80 OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE DRY.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ALSO
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT... MAINLY FROM
GRR TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ALREADY SEEING SOME 1-3 MILE
VISIBILITIES AT BIG RAPIDS AND MT PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COUPLE CONCERNS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST TONIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.

THE FROST POTENTIAL SEEMS REDUCED TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
BEHIND A DYING COLD FRONT REMAIN MOIST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE AREA A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT SO RAISE MINS SLIGHTLY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH LATE
TONIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND JUST HOW
UNSTABLE WE BECOME.  WITH A QUICKER FRONT...AS THE GFS SHOWS...WE
WOULD CLOUD OVER WITH SHOWERS SPREADING IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INSTABILITY.  THE ECMWF AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A SLOWER FRONT...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.  AS LONG AS WE ARE ABLE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE IN THE 40-50 KTS RANGE FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 2K FT SUGGESTING A WIND THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM.  AT THIS POINT I AM LEANING TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WITH THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z SAT AND
02Z SUN.  DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE MODE...BUT SOME
SEVERE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE TOO.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER SATURDAY EVENING.

UNTIL THEN FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY NICE DAY. SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS TOWARD NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK.  TOUGH SATURDAY MAX TEMP FORECAST
DUE TO TIMING ISSUES STATED ABOVE.  HAVE UPPER 60S OVER THE NW WHERE
THE SHOWERS ARRIVE FIRST...WHILE SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY
HIT 80 IF THERE IS A DELAY IN THE PCPN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ZONES. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS RISE WITH UPPER RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG IS A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS WE ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS. FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK OF
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS AT LAN AND JXN WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH... ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR FOG FROM ROUGHLY 10Z-14Z AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

DECIDED TO GO WITH IFR IN THE TAFS AT LAN/JXN WHERE THE WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE ONLY 10-15 KTS AT 1000 FT LATER TONIGHT. WENT MVFR
AT GRR/MKG/AZO/BTL WHERE STRONGER WINDS OF 20-25KTS ARE SHOWN AT
1000 FT AFTER 10Z. THIS OUGHT TO LIMIT THE IFR STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL AT THE FARTHER WEST TERMINALS.

ANY MORNING STRATUS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SOUTH SFC WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT MKG.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON FRIDAY.  WE MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LONG
FETCH.  THESE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER WAVES
SHOULD BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS.  IT WILL LIKELY STAY
ROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.  THE
WINDS LIGHTEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SHIFTING TO THE NW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY.  OVERALL
EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL SEE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR TWO INCHES SATURDAY
EVENING...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190240
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1040 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.  IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER CENTRAL LOWER TO
AROUND 80 OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE DRY.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ALSO
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT... MAINLY FROM
GRR TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ALREADY SEEING SOME 1-3 MILE
VISIBILITIES AT BIG RAPIDS AND MT PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COUPLE CONCERNS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST TONIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.

THE FROST POTENTIAL SEEMS REDUCED TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
BEHIND A DYING COLD FRONT REMAIN MOIST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE AREA A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT SO RAISE MINS SLIGHTLY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH LATE
TONIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND JUST HOW
UNSTABLE WE BECOME.  WITH A QUICKER FRONT...AS THE GFS SHOWS...WE
WOULD CLOUD OVER WITH SHOWERS SPREADING IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INSTABILITY.  THE ECMWF AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A SLOWER FRONT...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.  AS LONG AS WE ARE ABLE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE IN THE 40-50 KTS RANGE FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 2K FT SUGGESTING A WIND THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM.  AT THIS POINT I AM LEANING TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WITH THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z SAT AND
02Z SUN.  DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE MODE...BUT SOME
SEVERE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE TOO.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER SATURDAY EVENING.

UNTIL THEN FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY NICE DAY. SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS TOWARD NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK.  TOUGH SATURDAY MAX TEMP FORECAST
DUE TO TIMING ISSUES STATED ABOVE.  HAVE UPPER 60S OVER THE NW WHERE
THE SHOWERS ARRIVE FIRST...WHILE SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY
HIT 80 IF THERE IS A DELAY IN THE PCPN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ZONES. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS RISE WITH UPPER RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG IS A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS WE ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS. FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK OF
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS AT LAN AND JXN WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH... ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR FOG FROM ROUGHLY 10Z-14Z AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

DECIDED TO GO WITH IFR IN THE TAFS AT LAN/JXN WHERE THE WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE ONLY 10-15 KTS AT 1000 FT LATER TONIGHT. WENT MVFR
AT GRR/MKG/AZO/BTL WHERE STRONGER WINDS OF 20-25KTS ARE SHOWN AT
1000 FT AFTER 10Z. THIS OUGHT TO LIMIT THE IFR STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL AT THE FARTHER WEST TERMINALS.

ANY MORNING STRATUS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SOUTH SFC WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT MKG.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON FRIDAY.  WE MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LONG
FETCH.  THESE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER WAVES
SHOULD BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS.  IT WILL LIKELY STAY
ROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.  THE
WINDS LIGHTEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SHIFTING TO THE NW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY.  OVERALL
EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL SEE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR TWO INCHES SATURDAY
EVENING...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK






000
FXUS63 KDTX 190115
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
915 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A SHARP INVERSION BASED NEAR 843MB.
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WAS PRESENT UNDER THIS INVERSION.
OF NOTE HOWEVER WAS THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION.
ONGOING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS LOWERING THIS INVERSION AND
HELPING TO MIX SOME OF THIS DRY AIR INTO THE MOIST LAYER...WHICH
LED TO A RAPID CLEARING TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT UNDER THE E-SE FLOW HAS HOWEVER HELD THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MI AND PORTIONS OF METRO
DETROIT AND THE IRISH HILLS. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY LINGER UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION. RECENT TRENDS
HOWEVER SUGGEST A SLIGHT LOWERING OF FORECAST CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FCST MIN TEMPS STILL ARE REFLECTIVE OF A PERIOD
OF GOOD COOLING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 701 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE STRATO CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING THIS EVENING FROM BOTH
THE WANE IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE INTO
SE MI TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ATOP
THE MOIST LAYER WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CLEARING TREND. THE
PROSPECTS FOR COMPLETE CLEARING STILL LOOK IN QUESTION AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ACT TO HOLD POCKETS OF
STRATUS OVER THE AREA WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

FOR DTW...SUBTLE SFC DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SUGGESTS
REDUCTION IN VSBY FROM FOG WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 190115
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
915 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A SHARP INVERSION BASED NEAR 843MB.
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WAS PRESENT UNDER THIS INVERSION.
OF NOTE HOWEVER WAS THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION.
ONGOING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS LOWERING THIS INVERSION AND
HELPING TO MIX SOME OF THIS DRY AIR INTO THE MOIST LAYER...WHICH
LED TO A RAPID CLEARING TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT UNDER THE E-SE FLOW HAS HOWEVER HELD THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MI AND PORTIONS OF METRO
DETROIT AND THE IRISH HILLS. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY LINGER UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION. RECENT TRENDS
HOWEVER SUGGEST A SLIGHT LOWERING OF FORECAST CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FCST MIN TEMPS STILL ARE REFLECTIVE OF A PERIOD
OF GOOD COOLING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 701 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE STRATO CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING THIS EVENING FROM BOTH
THE WANE IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE INTO
SE MI TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ATOP
THE MOIST LAYER WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CLEARING TREND. THE
PROSPECTS FOR COMPLETE CLEARING STILL LOOK IN QUESTION AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ACT TO HOLD POCKETS OF
STRATUS OVER THE AREA WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

FOR DTW...SUBTLE SFC DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SUGGESTS
REDUCTION IN VSBY FROM FOG WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190011
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
811 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.  IT WILL BE
A SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.  THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER CENTRAL LOWER TO AROUND
80 OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE DRY.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COUPLE CONCERNS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST TONIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.

THE FROST POTENTIAL SEEMS REDUCED TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
BEHIND A DIEING COLD FRONT REMAIN MOIST.  CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE AREA A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT SO RAISE MINS SLIGHTLY AND WILL
ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND JUST HOW
UNSTABLE WE BECOME.  WITH A QUICKER FRONT...AS THE GFS SHOWS...WE
WOULD CLOUD OVER WITH SHOWERS SPREADING IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INSTABILITY.  THE ECMWF AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A SLOWER FRONT...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.  AS LONG AS WE ARE ABLE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE IN THE 40-50 KTS RANGE FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 2K FT SUGGESTING A WIND THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM.  AT THIS POINT I AM LEANING TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WITH THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z SAT AND
02Z SUN.  DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE MODE...BUT SOME
SEVERE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE TOO.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER SATURDAY EVENING.

UNTIL THEN FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY NICE DAY. SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS TOWARD NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK.  TOUGH SATURDAY MAX TEMP FORECAST
DUE TO TIMING ISSUES STATED ABOVE.  HAVE UPPER 60S OVER THE NW WHERE
THE SHOWERS ARRIVE FIRST...WHILE SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY
HIT 80 IF THERE IS A DELAY IN THE PCPN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ZONES. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS RISE WITH UPPER RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG IS A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS WE ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS. FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK OF
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS AT LAN AND JXN WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH... ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR FOG FROM ROUGHLY 10Z-14Z AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

DECIDED TO GO WITH IFR IN THE TAFS AT LAN/JXN WHERE THE WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE ONLY 10-15 KTS AT 1000 FT LATER TONIGHT. WENT MVFR
AT GRR/MKG/AZO/BTL WHERE STRONGER WINDS OF 20-25KTS ARE SHOWN AT
1000 FT AFTER 10Z. THIS OUGHT TO LIMIT THE IFR STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL AT THE FARTHER WEST TERMINALS.

ANY MORNING STRATUS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SOUTH SFC WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT MKG.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON FRIDAY.  WE MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LONG
FETCH.  THESE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER WAVES
SHOULD BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS.  IT WILL LIKELY STAY
ROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.  THE
WINDS LIGHTEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SHIFTING TO THE NW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY.  OVERALL
EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL SEE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR TWO INCHES SATURDAY
EVENING...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK






000
FXUS63 KMQT 182350
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY WILL SLOWLY WORK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT ON RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
EAST. ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIMIT COOLING AND LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST...THOUGH A FEW
PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EAST HALF.

FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO OVERALL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY 15-20MPH
SOUTH TO SSW WIND ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1KM AGL WINDS APPROACHING 50S KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH
MIXING OCCURS...SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC.
CURRENTLY THINKING GUSTS OF 30-35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT IF ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE
AREA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DELAYED AND CUT BACK ON POPS SOMEWHAT
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET COUNTERACTS SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER NOON...AND THE CENTRAL CWA UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
HALF.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
MAIN REASON THIS OCCURS IS 125+ KT H25 JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS JET
ENERGY REACHES NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY IT WILL HELP DEVELOP TROUGH
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. INITIAL WAVE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SHORTWAVE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL BLO 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AS THE WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO AT LEAST TO H9/H875 WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE
70S IF THERE IS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MUCH DIFFERENT STORY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR BARELY REACHING ABOVE 50 DEGREES
AND ONLY INTO THE 50S FARTHER INLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. NOTHING TOO HIGH IMPACT IN TERMS OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH ON LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORE...NOTHING TOO ATYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

BACK TO THE IMPACTS TIED TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LARGE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GREATEST SURGE OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL ONLY OCCURS FOR
BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE H85 JET VEERS MORE WEST BY
12Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE PROFILE BLO AN INVERSION AT H9-H85...BUT BLYR WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TO
JAMES BAY WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERALL...COULD SEE SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LK MICHIGAN WITH SOME GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON THE LAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN CWA. ATTM THINK THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

ADDITIONAL IMPACT COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTN AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES UP OVER 1500J/KG AND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY...0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KTS. NAM
QUITE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS MUCH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER 30 KTS SHOW SOME INCREASE 15-21Z
SATURDAY OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA...BUT STILL REMAIN MAINLY BLO 10
PCT. FREEZING LEVEL IS 9-11KFT AND HEIGHT THAT CORES ALOFT WOULD
HAVE TO REACH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE 1 INCH HAIL IS 27-30KFT...
SO LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
STEEP...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR H9-H7 AND STRONG WINDS H7-H5...SUPPOSE
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT TOO SFC. PRIMARY AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN SW H85 JET AND WHERE THE SFC DWPNTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S.
DOES SEEM IF TIMING WORKS OUT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME TSRA WITH COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP H7-H4 LAPSE RATES/COLD POCKET AT H5/. NO STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
20 KTS BY THIS TIME. BESIDES THE CHILL THAT WILL BE IN THE AIR ON
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
H85-H5 THERMAL TROUGHING/EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS. WATER TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE IN THE 6-8C RANGE BASED ON BUOYS AND SHIP
REPORTS. IMMEDIATE NSH AREAS OF SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR MAY BE OVER 10C
IN SOME SPOTS BUT THAT IS LOCALIZED. THEREFORE WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING
ABOVE 0C WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TRENDING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SFC RIDGE EXPANDING EAST FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...TROUGHING ALOFT DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINT OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RE-INFORCING SFC TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WAVE AND
WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...KEEP BULK OF WAVE AND MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN MUCH SHRA. SINCE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THIS WAY WITH 12Z
RUN...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY AT THE SFC THEN
ALOFT AS WELL BUILDS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS
LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND AFTN SFC DWPNTS IN THE 30S INDICATE
THERE COULD BE FROST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CWA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT /H85 TEMPS OVER
10C/ WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH
THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRES
WILL BRING TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME LATER
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MOISTENED AIR INTO
COOLER AIR OVER UPPER MI SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS (IFR CIGS)
SPREADING N TO KSAW LATE TONIGHT. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER OUT MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WHILE S WINDS ARE
DOWNSLOPING AT KIWD...LOW MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL LATER
TONIGHT THRU MID MORNING FRI. WITH FLOW UNDERGOING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DOWNSLOPING BEFORE REACHING KCMX...OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
AT THAT TERMINAL TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SFC TROF WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS
FRI. FLOW IS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO
30KT OR PERHAPS HIGHER THERE IN THE AFTN. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF
SHRA AHEAD OF TROF...ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX
LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHIFTING EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI
SHORELINE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND A FAIRLY STABLE NEAR-WATER
LAYER PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER







000
FXUS63 KMQT 182350
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY WILL SLOWLY WORK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT ON RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
EAST. ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIMIT COOLING AND LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST...THOUGH A FEW
PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EAST HALF.

FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO OVERALL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY 15-20MPH
SOUTH TO SSW WIND ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1KM AGL WINDS APPROACHING 50S KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH
MIXING OCCURS...SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC.
CURRENTLY THINKING GUSTS OF 30-35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT IF ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE
AREA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DELAYED AND CUT BACK ON POPS SOMEWHAT
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET COUNTERACTS SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER NOON...AND THE CENTRAL CWA UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
HALF.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
MAIN REASON THIS OCCURS IS 125+ KT H25 JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS JET
ENERGY REACHES NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY IT WILL HELP DEVELOP TROUGH
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. INITIAL WAVE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SHORTWAVE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL BLO 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AS THE WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO AT LEAST TO H9/H875 WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE
70S IF THERE IS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MUCH DIFFERENT STORY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR BARELY REACHING ABOVE 50 DEGREES
AND ONLY INTO THE 50S FARTHER INLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. NOTHING TOO HIGH IMPACT IN TERMS OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH ON LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORE...NOTHING TOO ATYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

BACK TO THE IMPACTS TIED TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LARGE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GREATEST SURGE OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL ONLY OCCURS FOR
BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE H85 JET VEERS MORE WEST BY
12Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE PROFILE BLO AN INVERSION AT H9-H85...BUT BLYR WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TO
JAMES BAY WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERALL...COULD SEE SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LK MICHIGAN WITH SOME GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON THE LAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN CWA. ATTM THINK THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

ADDITIONAL IMPACT COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTN AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES UP OVER 1500J/KG AND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY...0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KTS. NAM
QUITE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS MUCH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER 30 KTS SHOW SOME INCREASE 15-21Z
SATURDAY OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA...BUT STILL REMAIN MAINLY BLO 10
PCT. FREEZING LEVEL IS 9-11KFT AND HEIGHT THAT CORES ALOFT WOULD
HAVE TO REACH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE 1 INCH HAIL IS 27-30KFT...
SO LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
STEEP...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR H9-H7 AND STRONG WINDS H7-H5...SUPPOSE
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT TOO SFC. PRIMARY AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN SW H85 JET AND WHERE THE SFC DWPNTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S.
DOES SEEM IF TIMING WORKS OUT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME TSRA WITH COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP H7-H4 LAPSE RATES/COLD POCKET AT H5/. NO STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
20 KTS BY THIS TIME. BESIDES THE CHILL THAT WILL BE IN THE AIR ON
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
H85-H5 THERMAL TROUGHING/EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS. WATER TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE IN THE 6-8C RANGE BASED ON BUOYS AND SHIP
REPORTS. IMMEDIATE NSH AREAS OF SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR MAY BE OVER 10C
IN SOME SPOTS BUT THAT IS LOCALIZED. THEREFORE WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING
ABOVE 0C WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TRENDING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SFC RIDGE EXPANDING EAST FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...TROUGHING ALOFT DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINT OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RE-INFORCING SFC TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WAVE AND
WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...KEEP BULK OF WAVE AND MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN MUCH SHRA. SINCE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THIS WAY WITH 12Z
RUN...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY AT THE SFC THEN
ALOFT AS WELL BUILDS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS
LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND AFTN SFC DWPNTS IN THE 30S INDICATE
THERE COULD BE FROST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CWA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT /H85 TEMPS OVER
10C/ WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH
THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRES
WILL BRING TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME LATER
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MOISTENED AIR INTO
COOLER AIR OVER UPPER MI SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS (IFR CIGS)
SPREADING N TO KSAW LATE TONIGHT. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER OUT MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WHILE S WINDS ARE
DOWNSLOPING AT KIWD...LOW MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL LATER
TONIGHT THRU MID MORNING FRI. WITH FLOW UNDERGOING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DOWNSLOPING BEFORE REACHING KCMX...OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
AT THAT TERMINAL TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SFC TROF WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS
FRI. FLOW IS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO
30KT OR PERHAPS HIGHER THERE IN THE AFTN. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF
SHRA AHEAD OF TROF...ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX
LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHIFTING EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI
SHORELINE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND A FAIRLY STABLE NEAR-WATER
LAYER PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER






000
FXUS63 KAPX 182302
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
702 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BIG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST NNE OF KANJ THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER. MORNING STRATUS DECK HAS MIXED/ERODED TO A
DECENT EXTENT ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE FOR THE FAR E/SE PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ON TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE
TODAYS MIXING AND CLEARING TRENDS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
TONIGHT STILL BELIEVE THAT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER
SITTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO WISCONSIN WILL SIMPLY GET
RECYCLED BACK NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
EXPANDING STRATUS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM/RUC/GFS 925 MB RH FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT IDEA. OF COURSE THAT WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST DEVELOPMENT/LONGEVITY.

STILL...A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS/FROST AS ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
REALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE TO LATE IN THE DAY (FROST ADVISORY
AT 11 PM IS REALLY NOT THAT HELPFUL). IF IT DOES NOT CLOUD BACK
UP...SOME OF THE COLD INLAND AREAS WILL BE SITTING AT 28 DEGREES
TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW...AM BANKING ON THE CLOUDS AND WILL
JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NE
LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE I THINK
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST. BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM A FROST
ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...BECOMING BREEZY AND WARMER FRIDAY...
...AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL AND PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...WILL ASSESS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN QUEBEC EARLY FRIDAY...AND
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THOUGH OVERALL AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY /H8-H5 RH INITIALLY 25-40%/ CONCERN REMAINS
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER EARLY - IN ABSENCE OF STRONG DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND/OR DEEP MIXING THURSDAY (NOT UNLIKE CLOUD PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER WI). FORECAST WILL REFLECT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS EARLY
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER/ WITH WARMING AND MIXING QUICKLY LEADING TO
GREATER SUN BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA EARLY FRIDAY WILL RACE ESEWD...AND RESULT IN HEIGHT
FALLS AND UPPER FLOW AMPLIFICATION OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY. STRONG H8 SW FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM />45 KTS/ WILL
ADVECT ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION /WITH H8 DEW POINTS NEARING
+15C BY SATURDAY MORNING/. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
CENTRAL U.P. TO WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EWD
INTO ERN UPPER AND NW LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOW. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY APPEARS HIGHER - THOUGH NOT A
SLAM DUNK BY ANY STRETCH. WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR ONGOING
NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EARLY SATURDAY...DESTABILIZATION WILL AS USUAL
BE AN ISSUE (NOT TO MENTION IMPACT OF A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE). HOWEVER...NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR >1K J/KG
MLCAPE MIDDAY OVER NRN LOWER...WITH DEEP/STRONG QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW (H8 WINDS AROUND 40 KTS...AND H5 WINDS AROUND 50 KTS). IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE WIND
PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A GOOD THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AREA WIDE AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HEADS EAST OF REGION...TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS SHORT WAVE
ROTATES EWD. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
IMPACTING NRN MI...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL EXITING REGION. WILL RETAIN SMALL RISK FOR
THUNDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AND FEATURE DEEP
TROUGHING OVER NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING WEST.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT/LIFT ENEWD AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NRN MICHIGAN...THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOLISH TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER BY MIDWEEK. AS USUAL...SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE LAST SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DROP INTO MEAN
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE IN EXITS /THE LATEST GFS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN
ECMWF/. GREATER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF...AND GFS RUNS
THAT ARE TRENDING WEAKER...WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SOMEWHAT WEAKER
ECMWF. HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 MONDAY WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THE MIDWEEK WARMUP WILL BE THE START OF A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
(AND BEYOND?). THAT SAID...LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
TRANSITION SEASONS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR EXHIBITING POOR CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN-TO-RUN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY...PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING THANKS TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND
10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE A GOOD BET FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
NEARSHORE AREAS. SOME GUSTS GETTING TO AROUND GALE FORCE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOIST A GALE WATCH
ACCORDINGLY.

WINDS DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY AND VEER NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT FALL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 182302
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
702 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BIG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST NNE OF KANJ THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER. MORNING STRATUS DECK HAS MIXED/ERODED TO A
DECENT EXTENT ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE FOR THE FAR E/SE PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ON TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE
TODAYS MIXING AND CLEARING TRENDS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
TONIGHT STILL BELIEVE THAT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER
SITTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO WISCONSIN WILL SIMPLY GET
RECYCLED BACK NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
EXPANDING STRATUS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM/RUC/GFS 925 MB RH FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT IDEA. OF COURSE THAT WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST DEVELOPMENT/LONGEVITY.

STILL...A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS/FROST AS ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
REALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE TO LATE IN THE DAY (FROST ADVISORY
AT 11 PM IS REALLY NOT THAT HELPFUL). IF IT DOES NOT CLOUD BACK
UP...SOME OF THE COLD INLAND AREAS WILL BE SITTING AT 28 DEGREES
TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW...AM BANKING ON THE CLOUDS AND WILL
JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NE
LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE I THINK
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST. BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM A FROST
ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...BECOMING BREEZY AND WARMER FRIDAY...
...AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL AND PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...WILL ASSESS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN QUEBEC EARLY FRIDAY...AND
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THOUGH OVERALL AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY /H8-H5 RH INITIALLY 25-40%/ CONCERN REMAINS
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER EARLY - IN ABSENCE OF STRONG DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND/OR DEEP MIXING THURSDAY (NOT UNLIKE CLOUD PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER WI). FORECAST WILL REFLECT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS EARLY
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER/ WITH WARMING AND MIXING QUICKLY LEADING TO
GREATER SUN BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA EARLY FRIDAY WILL RACE ESEWD...AND RESULT IN HEIGHT
FALLS AND UPPER FLOW AMPLIFICATION OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY. STRONG H8 SW FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM />45 KTS/ WILL
ADVECT ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION /WITH H8 DEW POINTS NEARING
+15C BY SATURDAY MORNING/. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
CENTRAL U.P. TO WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EWD
INTO ERN UPPER AND NW LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOW. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY APPEARS HIGHER - THOUGH NOT A
SLAM DUNK BY ANY STRETCH. WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR ONGOING
NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EARLY SATURDAY...DESTABILIZATION WILL AS USUAL
BE AN ISSUE (NOT TO MENTION IMPACT OF A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE). HOWEVER...NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR >1K J/KG
MLCAPE MIDDAY OVER NRN LOWER...WITH DEEP/STRONG QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW (H8 WINDS AROUND 40 KTS...AND H5 WINDS AROUND 50 KTS). IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE WIND
PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A GOOD THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AREA WIDE AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HEADS EAST OF REGION...TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS SHORT WAVE
ROTATES EWD. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
IMPACTING NRN MI...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL EXITING REGION. WILL RETAIN SMALL RISK FOR
THUNDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AND FEATURE DEEP
TROUGHING OVER NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING WEST.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT/LIFT ENEWD AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NRN MICHIGAN...THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOLISH TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER BY MIDWEEK. AS USUAL...SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE LAST SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DROP INTO MEAN
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE IN EXITS /THE LATEST GFS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN
ECMWF/. GREATER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF...AND GFS RUNS
THAT ARE TRENDING WEAKER...WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SOMEWHAT WEAKER
ECMWF. HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 MONDAY WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THE MIDWEEK WARMUP WILL BE THE START OF A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
(AND BEYOND?). THAT SAID...LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
TRANSITION SEASONS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR EXHIBITING POOR CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN-TO-RUN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY...PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING THANKS TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND
10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE A GOOD BET FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
NEARSHORE AREAS. SOME GUSTS GETTING TO AROUND GALE FORCE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOIST A GALE WATCH
ACCORDINGLY.

WINDS DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY AND VEER NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT FALL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KDTX 182301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE STRATO CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING THIS EVENING FROM BOTH
THE WANE IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE INTO
SE MI TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ATOP
THE MOIST LAYER WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CLEARING TREND. THE
PROSPECTS FOR COMPLETE CLEARING STILL LOOK IN QUESTION AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ACT TO HOLD POCKETS OF
STRATUS OVER THE AREA WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

FOR DTW...SUBTLE SFC DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SUGGESTS
REDUCTION IN VSBY FROM FOG WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 182301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE STRATO CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING THIS EVENING FROM BOTH
THE WANE IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE INTO
SE MI TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ATOP
THE MOIST LAYER WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CLEARING TREND. THE
PROSPECTS FOR COMPLETE CLEARING STILL LOOK IN QUESTION AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ACT TO HOLD POCKETS OF
STRATUS OVER THE AREA WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

FOR DTW...SUBTLE SFC DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SUGGESTS
REDUCTION IN VSBY FROM FOG WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 182301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE STRATO CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING THIS EVENING FROM BOTH
THE WANE IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE INTO
SE MI TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ATOP
THE MOIST LAYER WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CLEARING TREND. THE
PROSPECTS FOR COMPLETE CLEARING STILL LOOK IN QUESTION AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ACT TO HOLD POCKETS OF
STRATUS OVER THE AREA WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

FOR DTW...SUBTLE SFC DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SUGGESTS
REDUCTION IN VSBY FROM FOG WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 182301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE STRATO CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING THIS EVENING FROM BOTH
THE WANE IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE INTO
SE MI TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ATOP
THE MOIST LAYER WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CLEARING TREND. THE
PROSPECTS FOR COMPLETE CLEARING STILL LOOK IN QUESTION AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ACT TO HOLD POCKETS OF
STRATUS OVER THE AREA WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

FOR DTW...SUBTLE SFC DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SUGGESTS
REDUCTION IN VSBY FROM FOG WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KAPX 181958
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BIG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST NNE OF KANJ THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER. MORNING STRATUS DECK HAS MIXED/ERODED TO A
DECENT EXTENT ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE FOR THE FAR E/SE PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ON TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE
TODAYS MIXING AND CLEARING TRENDS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
TONIGHT STILL BELIEVE THAT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER
SITTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO WISCONSIN WILL SIMPLY GET
RECYCLED BACK NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
EXPANDING STRATUS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM/RUC/GFS 925 MB RH FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT IDEA. OF COURSE THAT WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST DEVELOPMENT/LONGEVITY.

STILL...A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS/FROST AS ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
REALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE TO LATE IN THE DAY (FROST ADVISORY
AT 11 PM IS REALLY NOT THAT HELPFUL). IF IT DOES NOT CLOUD BACK
UP...SOME OF THE COLD INLAND AREAS WILL BE SITTING AT 28 DEGREES
TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW...AM BANKING ON THE CLOUDS AND WILL
JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NE
LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE I THINK
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST. BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM A FROST
ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...BECOMING BREEZY AND WARMER FRIDAY...
...AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL AND PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...WILL ASSESS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN QUEBEC EARLY FRIDAY...AND
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THOUGH OVERALL AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY /H8-H5 RH INITIALLY 25-40%/ CONCERN REMAINS
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER EARLY - IN ABSENCE OF STRONG DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND/OR DEEP MIXING THURSDAY (NOT UNLIKE CLOUD PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER WI). FORECAST WILL REFLECT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS EARLY
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER/ WITH WARMING AND MIXING QUICKLY LEADING TO
GREATER SUN BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA EARLY FRIDAY WILL RACE ESEWD...AND RESULT IN HEIGHT
FALLS AND UPPER FLOW AMPLIFICATION OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY. STRONG H8 SW FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM />45 KTS/ WILL
ADVECT ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION /WITH H8 DEW POINTS NEARING
+15C BY SATURDAY MORNING/. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
CENTRAL U.P. TO WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EWD
INTO ERN UPPER AND NW LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOW. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY APPEARS HIGHER - THOUGH NOT A
SLAM DUNK BY ANY STRETCH. WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR ONGOING
NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EARLY SATURDAY...DESTABILIZATION WILL AS USUAL
BE AN ISSUE (NOT TO MENTION IMPACT OF A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE). HOWEVER...NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR >1K J/KG
MLCAPE MIDDAY OVER NRN LOWER...WITH DEEP/STRONG QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW (H8 WINDS AROUND 40 KTS...AND H5 WINDS AROUND 50 KTS). IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE WIND
PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A GOOD THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AREA WIDE AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HEADS EAST OF REGION...TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS SHORT WAVE
ROTATES EWD. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
IMPACTING NRN MI...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL EXITING REGION. WILL RETAIN SMALL RISK FOR
THUNDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AND FEATURE DEEP
TROUGHING OVER NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING WEST.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT/LIFT ENEWD AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NRN MICHIGAN...THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOLISH TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER BY MIDWEEK. AS USUAL...SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE LAST SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DROP INTO MEAN
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE IN EXITS /THE LATEST GFS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN
ECMWF/. GREATER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF...AND GFS RUNS
THAT ARE TRENDING WEAKER...WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SOMEWHAT WEAKER
ECMWF. HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 MONDAY WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THE MIDWEEK WARMUP WILL BE THE START OF A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
(AND BEYOND?). THAT SAID...LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
TRANSITION SEASONS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR EXHIBITING POOR CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN-TO-RUN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUD DECK COVERS MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT IS MIXING/
ERODING AWAY. ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AT TVC AND WILL BE SOON AT
MBL AND PLN. APN WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AS NE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON IS BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF LAKE CLOUDS INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT THERE AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING.
SUSPECT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOP/EXPAND
BACK UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS CYCLED BACK NORTHWARD IN THE
VEERING FLOW. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE TERMINAL FORECASTS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUDS SPREADING BACK INTO THE
REGION (SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING). HOWEVER...INCREASING S/SW
FLOW ON FRIDAY (INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS) SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUD COVER MUCH QUICKER FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE A GOOD BET FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
NEARSHORE AREAS. SOME GUSTS GETTING TO AROUND GALE FORCE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOIST A GALE WATCH
ACCORDINGLY.

WINDS DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY AND VEER NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT FALL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 181958
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BIG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST NNE OF KANJ THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER. MORNING STRATUS DECK HAS MIXED/ERODED TO A
DECENT EXTENT ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE FOR THE FAR E/SE PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ON TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE
TODAYS MIXING AND CLEARING TRENDS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
TONIGHT STILL BELIEVE THAT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER
SITTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO WISCONSIN WILL SIMPLY GET
RECYCLED BACK NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
EXPANDING STRATUS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM/RUC/GFS 925 MB RH FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT IDEA. OF COURSE THAT WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST DEVELOPMENT/LONGEVITY.

STILL...A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS/FROST AS ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
REALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE TO LATE IN THE DAY (FROST ADVISORY
AT 11 PM IS REALLY NOT THAT HELPFUL). IF IT DOES NOT CLOUD BACK
UP...SOME OF THE COLD INLAND AREAS WILL BE SITTING AT 28 DEGREES
TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW...AM BANKING ON THE CLOUDS AND WILL
JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NE
LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE I THINK
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST. BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM A FROST
ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...BECOMING BREEZY AND WARMER FRIDAY...
...AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL AND PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...WILL ASSESS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN QUEBEC EARLY FRIDAY...AND
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THOUGH OVERALL AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY /H8-H5 RH INITIALLY 25-40%/ CONCERN REMAINS
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER EARLY - IN ABSENCE OF STRONG DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND/OR DEEP MIXING THURSDAY (NOT UNLIKE CLOUD PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER WI). FORECAST WILL REFLECT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS EARLY
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER/ WITH WARMING AND MIXING QUICKLY LEADING TO
GREATER SUN BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA EARLY FRIDAY WILL RACE ESEWD...AND RESULT IN HEIGHT
FALLS AND UPPER FLOW AMPLIFICATION OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY. STRONG H8 SW FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM />45 KTS/ WILL
ADVECT ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION /WITH H8 DEW POINTS NEARING
+15C BY SATURDAY MORNING/. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
CENTRAL U.P. TO WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EWD
INTO ERN UPPER AND NW LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOW. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY APPEARS HIGHER - THOUGH NOT A
SLAM DUNK BY ANY STRETCH. WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR ONGOING
NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EARLY SATURDAY...DESTABILIZATION WILL AS USUAL
BE AN ISSUE (NOT TO MENTION IMPACT OF A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE). HOWEVER...NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR >1K J/KG
MLCAPE MIDDAY OVER NRN LOWER...WITH DEEP/STRONG QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW (H8 WINDS AROUND 40 KTS...AND H5 WINDS AROUND 50 KTS). IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE WIND
PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A GOOD THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AREA WIDE AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HEADS EAST OF REGION...TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS SHORT WAVE
ROTATES EWD. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
IMPACTING NRN MI...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL EXITING REGION. WILL RETAIN SMALL RISK FOR
THUNDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AND FEATURE DEEP
TROUGHING OVER NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING WEST.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT/LIFT ENEWD AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NRN MICHIGAN...THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOLISH TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER BY MIDWEEK. AS USUAL...SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE LAST SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DROP INTO MEAN
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE IN EXITS /THE LATEST GFS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN
ECMWF/. GREATER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF...AND GFS RUNS
THAT ARE TRENDING WEAKER...WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SOMEWHAT WEAKER
ECMWF. HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 MONDAY WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THE MIDWEEK WARMUP WILL BE THE START OF A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
(AND BEYOND?). THAT SAID...LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
TRANSITION SEASONS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR EXHIBITING POOR CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN-TO-RUN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUD DECK COVERS MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT IS MIXING/
ERODING AWAY. ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AT TVC AND WILL BE SOON AT
MBL AND PLN. APN WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AS NE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON IS BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF LAKE CLOUDS INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT THERE AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING.
SUSPECT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOP/EXPAND
BACK UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS CYCLED BACK NORTHWARD IN THE
VEERING FLOW. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE TERMINAL FORECASTS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUDS SPREADING BACK INTO THE
REGION (SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING). HOWEVER...INCREASING S/SW
FLOW ON FRIDAY (INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS) SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUD COVER MUCH QUICKER FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE A GOOD BET FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
NEARSHORE AREAS. SOME GUSTS GETTING TO AROUND GALE FORCE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOIST A GALE WATCH
ACCORDINGLY.

WINDS DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY AND VEER NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT FALL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 181958
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BIG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST NNE OF KANJ THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER. MORNING STRATUS DECK HAS MIXED/ERODED TO A
DECENT EXTENT ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE FOR THE FAR E/SE PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ON TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE
TODAYS MIXING AND CLEARING TRENDS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
TONIGHT STILL BELIEVE THAT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER
SITTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO WISCONSIN WILL SIMPLY GET
RECYCLED BACK NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
EXPANDING STRATUS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM/RUC/GFS 925 MB RH FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT IDEA. OF COURSE THAT WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST DEVELOPMENT/LONGEVITY.

STILL...A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS/FROST AS ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
REALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE TO LATE IN THE DAY (FROST ADVISORY
AT 11 PM IS REALLY NOT THAT HELPFUL). IF IT DOES NOT CLOUD BACK
UP...SOME OF THE COLD INLAND AREAS WILL BE SITTING AT 28 DEGREES
TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW...AM BANKING ON THE CLOUDS AND WILL
JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NE
LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE I THINK
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST. BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM A FROST
ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...BECOMING BREEZY AND WARMER FRIDAY...
...AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL AND PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...WILL ASSESS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN QUEBEC EARLY FRIDAY...AND
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THOUGH OVERALL AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY /H8-H5 RH INITIALLY 25-40%/ CONCERN REMAINS
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER EARLY - IN ABSENCE OF STRONG DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND/OR DEEP MIXING THURSDAY (NOT UNLIKE CLOUD PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER WI). FORECAST WILL REFLECT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS EARLY
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER/ WITH WARMING AND MIXING QUICKLY LEADING TO
GREATER SUN BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA EARLY FRIDAY WILL RACE ESEWD...AND RESULT IN HEIGHT
FALLS AND UPPER FLOW AMPLIFICATION OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY. STRONG H8 SW FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM />45 KTS/ WILL
ADVECT ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION /WITH H8 DEW POINTS NEARING
+15C BY SATURDAY MORNING/. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
CENTRAL U.P. TO WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EWD
INTO ERN UPPER AND NW LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOW. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY APPEARS HIGHER - THOUGH NOT A
SLAM DUNK BY ANY STRETCH. WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR ONGOING
NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EARLY SATURDAY...DESTABILIZATION WILL AS USUAL
BE AN ISSUE (NOT TO MENTION IMPACT OF A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE). HOWEVER...NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR >1K J/KG
MLCAPE MIDDAY OVER NRN LOWER...WITH DEEP/STRONG QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW (H8 WINDS AROUND 40 KTS...AND H5 WINDS AROUND 50 KTS). IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE WIND
PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A GOOD THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AREA WIDE AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HEADS EAST OF REGION...TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS SHORT WAVE
ROTATES EWD. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
IMPACTING NRN MI...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL EXITING REGION. WILL RETAIN SMALL RISK FOR
THUNDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AND FEATURE DEEP
TROUGHING OVER NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING WEST.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT/LIFT ENEWD AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NRN MICHIGAN...THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOLISH TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER BY MIDWEEK. AS USUAL...SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE LAST SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DROP INTO MEAN
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE IN EXITS /THE LATEST GFS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN
ECMWF/. GREATER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF...AND GFS RUNS
THAT ARE TRENDING WEAKER...WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SOMEWHAT WEAKER
ECMWF. HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 MONDAY WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THE MIDWEEK WARMUP WILL BE THE START OF A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
(AND BEYOND?). THAT SAID...LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
TRANSITION SEASONS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR EXHIBITING POOR CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN-TO-RUN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUD DECK COVERS MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT IS MIXING/
ERODING AWAY. ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AT TVC AND WILL BE SOON AT
MBL AND PLN. APN WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AS NE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON IS BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF LAKE CLOUDS INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT THERE AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING.
SUSPECT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOP/EXPAND
BACK UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS CYCLED BACK NORTHWARD IN THE
VEERING FLOW. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE TERMINAL FORECASTS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUDS SPREADING BACK INTO THE
REGION (SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING). HOWEVER...INCREASING S/SW
FLOW ON FRIDAY (INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS) SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUD COVER MUCH QUICKER FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE A GOOD BET FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
NEARSHORE AREAS. SOME GUSTS GETTING TO AROUND GALE FORCE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOIST A GALE WATCH
ACCORDINGLY.

WINDS DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY AND VEER NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT FALL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 181958
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BIG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST NNE OF KANJ THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER. MORNING STRATUS DECK HAS MIXED/ERODED TO A
DECENT EXTENT ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE FOR THE FAR E/SE PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ON TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE
TODAYS MIXING AND CLEARING TRENDS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
TONIGHT STILL BELIEVE THAT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER
SITTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO WISCONSIN WILL SIMPLY GET
RECYCLED BACK NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
EXPANDING STRATUS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM/RUC/GFS 925 MB RH FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT IDEA. OF COURSE THAT WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST DEVELOPMENT/LONGEVITY.

STILL...A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS/FROST AS ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
REALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE TO LATE IN THE DAY (FROST ADVISORY
AT 11 PM IS REALLY NOT THAT HELPFUL). IF IT DOES NOT CLOUD BACK
UP...SOME OF THE COLD INLAND AREAS WILL BE SITTING AT 28 DEGREES
TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW...AM BANKING ON THE CLOUDS AND WILL
JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NE
LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE I THINK
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST. BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM A FROST
ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...BECOMING BREEZY AND WARMER FRIDAY...
...AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL AND PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...WILL ASSESS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN QUEBEC EARLY FRIDAY...AND
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THOUGH OVERALL AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY /H8-H5 RH INITIALLY 25-40%/ CONCERN REMAINS
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER EARLY - IN ABSENCE OF STRONG DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND/OR DEEP MIXING THURSDAY (NOT UNLIKE CLOUD PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER WI). FORECAST WILL REFLECT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS EARLY
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER/ WITH WARMING AND MIXING QUICKLY LEADING TO
GREATER SUN BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA EARLY FRIDAY WILL RACE ESEWD...AND RESULT IN HEIGHT
FALLS AND UPPER FLOW AMPLIFICATION OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY. STRONG H8 SW FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM />45 KTS/ WILL
ADVECT ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION /WITH H8 DEW POINTS NEARING
+15C BY SATURDAY MORNING/. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
CENTRAL U.P. TO WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EWD
INTO ERN UPPER AND NW LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOW. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY APPEARS HIGHER - THOUGH NOT A
SLAM DUNK BY ANY STRETCH. WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR ONGOING
NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EARLY SATURDAY...DESTABILIZATION WILL AS USUAL
BE AN ISSUE (NOT TO MENTION IMPACT OF A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE). HOWEVER...NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR >1K J/KG
MLCAPE MIDDAY OVER NRN LOWER...WITH DEEP/STRONG QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW (H8 WINDS AROUND 40 KTS...AND H5 WINDS AROUND 50 KTS). IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE WIND
PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A GOOD THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AREA WIDE AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HEADS EAST OF REGION...TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS SHORT WAVE
ROTATES EWD. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
IMPACTING NRN MI...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL EXITING REGION. WILL RETAIN SMALL RISK FOR
THUNDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AND FEATURE DEEP
TROUGHING OVER NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING WEST.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT/LIFT ENEWD AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NRN MICHIGAN...THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOLISH TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER BY MIDWEEK. AS USUAL...SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE LAST SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DROP INTO MEAN
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE IN EXITS /THE LATEST GFS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN
ECMWF/. GREATER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF...AND GFS RUNS
THAT ARE TRENDING WEAKER...WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SOMEWHAT WEAKER
ECMWF. HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 MONDAY WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THE MIDWEEK WARMUP WILL BE THE START OF A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
(AND BEYOND?). THAT SAID...LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
TRANSITION SEASONS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR EXHIBITING POOR CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN-TO-RUN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUD DECK COVERS MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT IS MIXING/
ERODING AWAY. ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AT TVC AND WILL BE SOON AT
MBL AND PLN. APN WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AS NE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON IS BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF LAKE CLOUDS INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT THERE AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING.
SUSPECT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOP/EXPAND
BACK UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS CYCLED BACK NORTHWARD IN THE
VEERING FLOW. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE TERMINAL FORECASTS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUDS SPREADING BACK INTO THE
REGION (SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING). HOWEVER...INCREASING S/SW
FLOW ON FRIDAY (INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS) SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUD COVER MUCH QUICKER FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE A GOOD BET FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
NEARSHORE AREAS. SOME GUSTS GETTING TO AROUND GALE FORCE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOIST A GALE WATCH
ACCORDINGLY.

WINDS DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY AND VEER NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT FALL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KMQT 181957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY WILL SLOWLY WORK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT ON RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
EAST. ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIMIT COOLING AND LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST...THOUGH A FEW
PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EAST HALF.

FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO OVERALL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY 15-20MPH
SOUTH TO SSW WIND ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1KM AGL WINDS APPROACHING 50S KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH
MIXING OCCURS...SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC.
CURRENTLY THINKING GUSTS OF 30-35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT IF ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE
AREA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DELAYED AND CUT BACK ON POPS SOMEWHAT
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET COUNTERACTS SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER NOON...AND THE CENTRAL CWA UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
HALF.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
MAIN REASON THIS OCCURS IS 125+ KT H25 JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS JET
ENERGY REACHES NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY IT WILL HELP DEVELOP TROUGH
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. INITIAL WAVE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SHORTWAVE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL BLO 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AS THE WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO AT LEAST TO H9/H875 WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE
70S IF THERE IS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MUCH DIFFERENT STORY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR BARELY REACHING ABOVE 50 DEGREES
AND ONLY INTO THE 50S FARTHER INLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. NOTHING TOO HIGH IMPACT IN TERMS OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH ON LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORE...NOTHING TOO ATYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

BACK TO THE IMPACTS TIED TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LARGE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GREATEST SURGE OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL ONLY OCCURS FOR
BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE H85 JET VEERS MORE WEST BY
12Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE PROFILE BLO AN INVERSION AT H9-H85...BUT BLYR WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TO
JAMES BAY WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERALL...COULD SEE SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LK MICHIGAN WITH SOME GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON THE LAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN CWA. ATTM THINK THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

ADDITIONAL IMPACT COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTN AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES UP OVER 1500J/KG AND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY...0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KTS. NAM
QUITE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS MUCH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER 30 KTS SHOW SOME INCREASE 15-21Z
SATURDAY OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA...BUT STILL REMAIN MAINLY BLO 10
PCT. FREEZING LEVEL IS 9-11KFT AND HEIGHT THAT CORES ALOFT WOULD
HAVE TO REACH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE 1 INCH HAIL IS 27-30KFT...
SO LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
STEEP...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR H9-H7 AND STRONG WINDS H7-H5...SUPPOSE
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT TOO SFC. PRIMARY AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN SW H85 JET AND WHERE THE SFC DWPNTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S.
DOES SEEM IF TIMING WORKS OUT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME TSRA WITH COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP H7-H4 LAPSE RATES/COLD POCKET AT H5/. NO STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
20 KTS BY THIS TIME. BESIDES THE CHILL THAT WILL BE IN THE AIR ON
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
H85-H5 THERMAL TROUGHING/EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS. WATER TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE IN THE 6-8C RANGE BASED ON BUOYS AND SHIP
REPORTS. IMMEDIATE NSH AREAS OF SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR MAY BE OVER 10C
IN SOME SPOTS BUT THAT IS LOCALIZED. THEREFORE WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING
ABOVE 0C WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TRENDING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SFC RIDGE EXPANDING EAST FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...TROUGHING ALOFT DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINT OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RE-INFORCING SFC TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WAVE AND
WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...KEEP BULK OF WAVE AND MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN MUCH SHRA. SINCE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THIS WAY WITH 12Z
RUN...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY AT THE SFC THEN
ALOFT AS WELL BUILDS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS
LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND AFTN SFC DWPNTS IN THE 30S INDICATE
THERE COULD BE FROST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CWA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT /H85 TEMPS OVER
10C/ WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH
THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AT IWD...AND BRING MVFR
CIGS TO CMX AND SAW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY S TO SSW
WINDS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING -SHRA TO WESTERN
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
IWD OR CMX UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHIFTING EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI
SHORELINE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND A FAIRLY STABLE NEAR-WATER
LAYER PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER






000
FXUS63 KMQT 181957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY WILL SLOWLY WORK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT ON RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
EAST. ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIMIT COOLING AND LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST...THOUGH A FEW
PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EAST HALF.

FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO OVERALL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY 15-20MPH
SOUTH TO SSW WIND ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1KM AGL WINDS APPROACHING 50S KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH
MIXING OCCURS...SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC.
CURRENTLY THINKING GUSTS OF 30-35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT IF ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE
AREA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DELAYED AND CUT BACK ON POPS SOMEWHAT
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET COUNTERACTS SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER NOON...AND THE CENTRAL CWA UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
HALF.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
MAIN REASON THIS OCCURS IS 125+ KT H25 JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS JET
ENERGY REACHES NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY IT WILL HELP DEVELOP TROUGH
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. INITIAL WAVE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SHORTWAVE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL BLO 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AS THE WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO AT LEAST TO H9/H875 WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE
70S IF THERE IS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MUCH DIFFERENT STORY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR BARELY REACHING ABOVE 50 DEGREES
AND ONLY INTO THE 50S FARTHER INLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. NOTHING TOO HIGH IMPACT IN TERMS OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH ON LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORE...NOTHING TOO ATYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

BACK TO THE IMPACTS TIED TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LARGE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GREATEST SURGE OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL ONLY OCCURS FOR
BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE H85 JET VEERS MORE WEST BY
12Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE PROFILE BLO AN INVERSION AT H9-H85...BUT BLYR WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TO
JAMES BAY WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERALL...COULD SEE SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LK MICHIGAN WITH SOME GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON THE LAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN CWA. ATTM THINK THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

ADDITIONAL IMPACT COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTN AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES UP OVER 1500J/KG AND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY...0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KTS. NAM
QUITE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS MUCH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER 30 KTS SHOW SOME INCREASE 15-21Z
SATURDAY OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA...BUT STILL REMAIN MAINLY BLO 10
PCT. FREEZING LEVEL IS 9-11KFT AND HEIGHT THAT CORES ALOFT WOULD
HAVE TO REACH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE 1 INCH HAIL IS 27-30KFT...
SO LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
STEEP...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR H9-H7 AND STRONG WINDS H7-H5...SUPPOSE
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT TOO SFC. PRIMARY AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN SW H85 JET AND WHERE THE SFC DWPNTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S.
DOES SEEM IF TIMING WORKS OUT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME TSRA WITH COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP H7-H4 LAPSE RATES/COLD POCKET AT H5/. NO STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
20 KTS BY THIS TIME. BESIDES THE CHILL THAT WILL BE IN THE AIR ON
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
H85-H5 THERMAL TROUGHING/EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS. WATER TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE IN THE 6-8C RANGE BASED ON BUOYS AND SHIP
REPORTS. IMMEDIATE NSH AREAS OF SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR MAY BE OVER 10C
IN SOME SPOTS BUT THAT IS LOCALIZED. THEREFORE WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING
ABOVE 0C WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TRENDING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SFC RIDGE EXPANDING EAST FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...TROUGHING ALOFT DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINT OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RE-INFORCING SFC TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WAVE AND
WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...KEEP BULK OF WAVE AND MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN MUCH SHRA. SINCE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THIS WAY WITH 12Z
RUN...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY AT THE SFC THEN
ALOFT AS WELL BUILDS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS
LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND AFTN SFC DWPNTS IN THE 30S INDICATE
THERE COULD BE FROST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CWA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT /H85 TEMPS OVER
10C/ WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH
THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AT IWD...AND BRING MVFR
CIGS TO CMX AND SAW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY S TO SSW
WINDS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING -SHRA TO WESTERN
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
IWD OR CMX UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHIFTING EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI
SHORELINE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND A FAIRLY STABLE NEAR-WATER
LAYER PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER






000
FXUS63 KMQT 181957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY WILL SLOWLY WORK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT ON RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
EAST. ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIMIT COOLING AND LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST...THOUGH A FEW
PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EAST HALF.

FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO OVERALL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY 15-20MPH
SOUTH TO SSW WIND ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1KM AGL WINDS APPROACHING 50S KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH
MIXING OCCURS...SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC.
CURRENTLY THINKING GUSTS OF 30-35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT IF ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE
AREA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DELAYED AND CUT BACK ON POPS SOMEWHAT
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET COUNTERACTS SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER NOON...AND THE CENTRAL CWA UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
HALF.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
MAIN REASON THIS OCCURS IS 125+ KT H25 JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS JET
ENERGY REACHES NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY IT WILL HELP DEVELOP TROUGH
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. INITIAL WAVE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SHORTWAVE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL BLO 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AS THE WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO AT LEAST TO H9/H875 WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE
70S IF THERE IS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MUCH DIFFERENT STORY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR BARELY REACHING ABOVE 50 DEGREES
AND ONLY INTO THE 50S FARTHER INLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. NOTHING TOO HIGH IMPACT IN TERMS OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH ON LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORE...NOTHING TOO ATYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

BACK TO THE IMPACTS TIED TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LARGE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GREATEST SURGE OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL ONLY OCCURS FOR
BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE H85 JET VEERS MORE WEST BY
12Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE PROFILE BLO AN INVERSION AT H9-H85...BUT BLYR WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TO
JAMES BAY WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERALL...COULD SEE SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LK MICHIGAN WITH SOME GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON THE LAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN CWA. ATTM THINK THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

ADDITIONAL IMPACT COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTN AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES UP OVER 1500J/KG AND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY...0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KTS. NAM
QUITE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS MUCH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER 30 KTS SHOW SOME INCREASE 15-21Z
SATURDAY OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA...BUT STILL REMAIN MAINLY BLO 10
PCT. FREEZING LEVEL IS 9-11KFT AND HEIGHT THAT CORES ALOFT WOULD
HAVE TO REACH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE 1 INCH HAIL IS 27-30KFT...
SO LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
STEEP...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR H9-H7 AND STRONG WINDS H7-H5...SUPPOSE
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT TOO SFC. PRIMARY AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN SW H85 JET AND WHERE THE SFC DWPNTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S.
DOES SEEM IF TIMING WORKS OUT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME TSRA WITH COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP H7-H4 LAPSE RATES/COLD POCKET AT H5/. NO STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
20 KTS BY THIS TIME. BESIDES THE CHILL THAT WILL BE IN THE AIR ON
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
H85-H5 THERMAL TROUGHING/EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS. WATER TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE IN THE 6-8C RANGE BASED ON BUOYS AND SHIP
REPORTS. IMMEDIATE NSH AREAS OF SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR MAY BE OVER 10C
IN SOME SPOTS BUT THAT IS LOCALIZED. THEREFORE WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING
ABOVE 0C WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TRENDING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SFC RIDGE EXPANDING EAST FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...TROUGHING ALOFT DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINT OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RE-INFORCING SFC TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WAVE AND
WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...KEEP BULK OF WAVE AND MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN MUCH SHRA. SINCE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THIS WAY WITH 12Z
RUN...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY AT THE SFC THEN
ALOFT AS WELL BUILDS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS
LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND AFTN SFC DWPNTS IN THE 30S INDICATE
THERE COULD BE FROST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CWA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT /H85 TEMPS OVER
10C/ WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH
THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AT IWD...AND BRING MVFR
CIGS TO CMX AND SAW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY S TO SSW
WINDS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING -SHRA TO WESTERN
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
IWD OR CMX UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHIFTING EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI
SHORELINE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND A FAIRLY STABLE NEAR-WATER
LAYER PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER






000
FXUS63 KMQT 181957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY WILL SLOWLY WORK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT ON RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
EAST. ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIMIT COOLING AND LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST...THOUGH A FEW
PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EAST HALF.

FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO OVERALL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY 15-20MPH
SOUTH TO SSW WIND ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1KM AGL WINDS APPROACHING 50S KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH
MIXING OCCURS...SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC.
CURRENTLY THINKING GUSTS OF 30-35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT IF ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE
AREA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DELAYED AND CUT BACK ON POPS SOMEWHAT
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET COUNTERACTS SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER NOON...AND THE CENTRAL CWA UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
HALF.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
MAIN REASON THIS OCCURS IS 125+ KT H25 JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS JET
ENERGY REACHES NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY IT WILL HELP DEVELOP TROUGH
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. INITIAL WAVE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SHORTWAVE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL BLO 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AS THE WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO AT LEAST TO H9/H875 WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE
70S IF THERE IS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MUCH DIFFERENT STORY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR BARELY REACHING ABOVE 50 DEGREES
AND ONLY INTO THE 50S FARTHER INLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. NOTHING TOO HIGH IMPACT IN TERMS OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH ON LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORE...NOTHING TOO ATYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

BACK TO THE IMPACTS TIED TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LARGE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GREATEST SURGE OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL ONLY OCCURS FOR
BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE H85 JET VEERS MORE WEST BY
12Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE PROFILE BLO AN INVERSION AT H9-H85...BUT BLYR WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TO
JAMES BAY WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERALL...COULD SEE SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LK MICHIGAN WITH SOME GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON THE LAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN CWA. ATTM THINK THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

ADDITIONAL IMPACT COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTN AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES UP OVER 1500J/KG AND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY...0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KTS. NAM
QUITE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS MUCH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER 30 KTS SHOW SOME INCREASE 15-21Z
SATURDAY OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA...BUT STILL REMAIN MAINLY BLO 10
PCT. FREEZING LEVEL IS 9-11KFT AND HEIGHT THAT CORES ALOFT WOULD
HAVE TO REACH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE 1 INCH HAIL IS 27-30KFT...
SO LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
STEEP...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR H9-H7 AND STRONG WINDS H7-H5...SUPPOSE
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT TOO SFC. PRIMARY AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN SW H85 JET AND WHERE THE SFC DWPNTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S.
DOES SEEM IF TIMING WORKS OUT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME TSRA WITH COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP H7-H4 LAPSE RATES/COLD POCKET AT H5/. NO STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
20 KTS BY THIS TIME. BESIDES THE CHILL THAT WILL BE IN THE AIR ON
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
H85-H5 THERMAL TROUGHING/EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS. WATER TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE IN THE 6-8C RANGE BASED ON BUOYS AND SHIP
REPORTS. IMMEDIATE NSH AREAS OF SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR MAY BE OVER 10C
IN SOME SPOTS BUT THAT IS LOCALIZED. THEREFORE WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING
ABOVE 0C WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TRENDING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SFC RIDGE EXPANDING EAST FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...TROUGHING ALOFT DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINT OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RE-INFORCING SFC TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WAVE AND
WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...KEEP BULK OF WAVE AND MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN MUCH SHRA. SINCE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THIS WAY WITH 12Z
RUN...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY AT THE SFC THEN
ALOFT AS WELL BUILDS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS
LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND AFTN SFC DWPNTS IN THE 30S INDICATE
THERE COULD BE FROST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CWA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT /H85 TEMPS OVER
10C/ WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH
THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AT IWD...AND BRING MVFR
CIGS TO CMX AND SAW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY S TO SSW
WINDS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING -SHRA TO WESTERN
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
IWD OR CMX UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHIFTING EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI
SHORELINE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND A FAIRLY STABLE NEAR-WATER
LAYER PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER






000
FXUS63 KDTX 181932
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FILLS IN BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND IS
MAINTAINED BY NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING TODAY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RISE IN
CEILINGS...BUT STILL EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM PTK NORTHWARD.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THEN FOR TONIGHT AS FLOW OFF LAKE HURON
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. CURRENTLY...CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN ALIGNED FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
ONTARIO....BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH...WHILE NORTHEAST FLOW
REMAINS EARLY OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN...ALLOWING FOR SOME STRATUS
RE-DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR BKN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE ALONG A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AXIS THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF THE STATE...WITH MBS
INCLUDED. IN ADDITION...VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKES ERIE AND
ST CLAIR WILL ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR BR TO FORM NEAR THE DETROIT
TERMINALS. DID ADD A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR VISIBILITIES FRIDAY
MORNING FOR DTW...DET...AND YIP.

FOR DTW...LOWER CLOUDS ARE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HIGHER CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK THAN SEEN
UPSTREAM SO FAR TODAY...AND STILL HAVE JUST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
CEILINGS BKN BELOW 5000 FEET. SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER LIGHT FOG
WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FELT GOOD ENOUGH
WITH CALM CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TO INTRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MVFR VIS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 181932
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FILLS IN BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND IS
MAINTAINED BY NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING TODAY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RISE IN
CEILINGS...BUT STILL EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM PTK NORTHWARD.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THEN FOR TONIGHT AS FLOW OFF LAKE HURON
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. CURRENTLY...CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN ALIGNED FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
ONTARIO....BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH...WHILE NORTHEAST FLOW
REMAINS EARLY OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN...ALLOWING FOR SOME STRATUS
RE-DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR BKN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE ALONG A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AXIS THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF THE STATE...WITH MBS
INCLUDED. IN ADDITION...VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKES ERIE AND
ST CLAIR WILL ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR BR TO FORM NEAR THE DETROIT
TERMINALS. DID ADD A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR VISIBILITIES FRIDAY
MORNING FOR DTW...DET...AND YIP.

FOR DTW...LOWER CLOUDS ARE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HIGHER CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK THAN SEEN
UPSTREAM SO FAR TODAY...AND STILL HAVE JUST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
CEILINGS BKN BELOW 5000 FEET. SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER LIGHT FOG
WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FELT GOOD ENOUGH
WITH CALM CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TO INTRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MVFR VIS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 181932
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FILLS IN BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND IS
MAINTAINED BY NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING TODAY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RISE IN
CEILINGS...BUT STILL EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM PTK NORTHWARD.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THEN FOR TONIGHT AS FLOW OFF LAKE HURON
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. CURRENTLY...CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN ALIGNED FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
ONTARIO....BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH...WHILE NORTHEAST FLOW
REMAINS EARLY OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN...ALLOWING FOR SOME STRATUS
RE-DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR BKN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE ALONG A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AXIS THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF THE STATE...WITH MBS
INCLUDED. IN ADDITION...VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKES ERIE AND
ST CLAIR WILL ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR BR TO FORM NEAR THE DETROIT
TERMINALS. DID ADD A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR VISIBILITIES FRIDAY
MORNING FOR DTW...DET...AND YIP.

FOR DTW...LOWER CLOUDS ARE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HIGHER CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK THAN SEEN
UPSTREAM SO FAR TODAY...AND STILL HAVE JUST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
CEILINGS BKN BELOW 5000 FEET. SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER LIGHT FOG
WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FELT GOOD ENOUGH
WITH CALM CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TO INTRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MVFR VIS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 181932
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
332 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPED DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...HELPED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWN ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT (925MB) IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND IS NOW
SITUATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NEW YORK STATE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH A STRATUS DECK SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...AND BEND TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION BY LATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD...AND AS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST THEN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN MIN TEMPS AND
FROST THREAT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE
SHOULD INITIALLY SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STATE ALLOWS STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO ADDING A MENTION OF FROST OVER THE
THUMB WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ST CLAIR TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMES OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

BURGEONING HEIGHT FALLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND LOSES THE LINKAGE WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ADVECTS UP FROM TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS AIRMASS
WILL INITIALLY BE EXTREMELY DRY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS 700 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE IN THE 30 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MODEST CONCERN SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
FOG/CLOUDS COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...AS WISCONSIN IS DEEPLY SOCKED IN TODAY...BUT THAT WAS
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR (8C AT 700 MB) STREAMS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (7+ C AT 700-500
MB)...BUT THAT COLUMN WILL BE DRY...AND AS MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN WILL
DWINDLE THE LAPSE RATES TO MORE MANAGEABLE 6.0-6.5 C/KM. MOISTURE
FEED IS NARROW...BUT SOLID WITH 700 MB DEW PTS IN THE 3-5 C
RANGE...WITH PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1.75 INCHES...PER BLEND
NAM/GEM/GFS. STILL...NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...IF
NOT UNDER 500 J/KG. CONCERN IS EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG
WIND FIELDS...45-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB DRAWS CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS
OF 45-60 MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION STILL WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO GET
WINDS TO THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...POST
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW EQL LEVELS UP AROUND -20 C ISOTHERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AWAY FROM
THE CWA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A FEW MENTIONS OF AM FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISING FROM 570 TO 586 DAM.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW...AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARM AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LEADING TO MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAGINAW BAY. DUE TO THIS WARM AIR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FILLS IN BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND IS
MAINTAINED BY NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING TODAY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RISE IN
CEILINGS...BUT STILL EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM PTK NORTHWARD.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THEN FOR TONIGHT AS FLOW OFF LAKE HURON
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. CURRENTLY...CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN ALIGNED FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
ONTARIO....BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH...WHILE NORTHEAST FLOW
REMAINS EARLY OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN...ALLOWING FOR SOME STRATUS
RE-DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR BKN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE ALONG A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AXIS THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF THE STATE...WITH MBS
INCLUDED. IN ADDITION...VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKES ERIE AND
ST CLAIR WILL ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR BR TO FORM NEAR THE DETROIT
TERMINALS. DID ADD A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR VISIBILITIES FRIDAY
MORNING FOR DTW...DET...AND YIP.

FOR DTW...LOWER CLOUDS ARE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HIGHER CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK THAN SEEN
UPSTREAM SO FAR TODAY...AND STILL HAVE JUST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
CEILINGS BKN BELOW 5000 FEET. SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER LIGHT FOG
WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FELT GOOD ENOUGH
WITH CALM CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TO INTRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MVFR VIS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 181930
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC INTO THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. THE SHALLOW INTRUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO SRN WI HAS SHARPENED A 925 MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MI AND
NRN WI. IN ADDITION...MOISTENING FROM THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR... WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT...HAS ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE
THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
6C...EXPECT MAX READINGS IN THE MID 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
AND WEST.

TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE INFLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING PCPN WILL REMAIN NW
OF THE CWA...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
LATE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
MAIN REASON THIS OCCURS IS 125+ KT H25 JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS JET
ENERGY REACHES NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY IT WILL HELP DEVELOP TROUGH
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. INITIAL WAVE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SHORTWAVE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL BLO 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AS THE WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO AT LEAST TO H9/H875 WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE
70S IF THERE IS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MUCH DIFFERENT STORY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR BARELY REACHING ABOVE 50 DEGREES
AND ONLY INTO THE 50S FARTHER INLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. NOTHING TOO HIGH IMPACT IN TERMS OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH ON LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORE...NOTHING TOO ATYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

BACK TO THE IMPACTS TIED TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LARGE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GREATEST SURGE OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL ONLY OCCURS FOR
BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE H85 JET VEERS MORE WEST BY
12Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE PROFILE BLO AN INVERSION AT H9-H85...BUT BLYR WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TO
JAMES BAY WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERALL...COULD SEE SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LK MICHIGAN WITH SOME GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON THE LAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN CWA. ATTM THINK THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

ADDITIONAL IMPACT COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTN AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES UP OVER 1500J/KG AND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY...0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KTS. NAM
QUITE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS MUCH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER 30 KTS SHOW SOME INCREASE 15-21Z
SATURDAY OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA...BUT STILL REMAIN MAINLY BLO 10
PCT. FREEZING LEVEL IS 9-11KFT AND HEIGHT THAT CORES ALOFT WOULD
HAVE TO REACH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE 1 INCH HAIL IS 27-30KFT...
SO LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
STEEP...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR H9-H7 AND STRONG WINDS H7-H5...SUPPOSE
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT TOO SFC. PRIMARY AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN SW H85 JET AND WHERE THE SFC DWPNTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S.
DOES SEEM IF TIMING WORKS OUT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME TSRA WITH COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP H7-H4 LAPSE RATES/COLD POCKET AT H5/. NO STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
20 KTS BY THIS TIME. BESIDES THE CHILL THAT WILL BE IN THE AIR ON
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
H85-H5 THERMAL TROUGHING/EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS. WATER TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE IN THE 6-8C RANGE BASED ON BUOYS AND SHIP
REPORTS. IMMEDIATE NSH AREAS OF SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR MAY BE OVER 10C
IN SOME SPOTS BUT THAT IS LOCALIZED. THEREFORE WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING
ABOVE 0C WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TRENDING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SFC RIDGE EXPANDING EAST FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...TROUGHING ALOFT DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINT OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RE-INFORCING SFC TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WAVE AND
WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...KEEP BULK OF WAVE AND MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN MUCH SHRA. SINCE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THIS WAY WITH 12Z
RUN...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY AT THE SFC THEN
ALOFT AS WELL BUILDS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS
LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND AFTN SFC DWPNTS IN THE 30S INDICATE
THERE COULD BE FROST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CWA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT /H85 TEMPS OVER
10C/ WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH
THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AT IWD...AND BRING MVFR
CIGS TO CMX AND SAW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY S TO SSW
WINDS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING -SHRA TO WESTERN
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
IWD OR CMX UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
A TROUGH MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE N AND
INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 181930
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC INTO THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. THE SHALLOW INTRUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO SRN WI HAS SHARPENED A 925 MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MI AND
NRN WI. IN ADDITION...MOISTENING FROM THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR... WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT...HAS ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE
THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
6C...EXPECT MAX READINGS IN THE MID 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
AND WEST.

TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE INFLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING PCPN WILL REMAIN NW
OF THE CWA...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
LATE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
MAIN REASON THIS OCCURS IS 125+ KT H25 JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS JET
ENERGY REACHES NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY IT WILL HELP DEVELOP TROUGH
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. INITIAL WAVE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SHORTWAVE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL BLO 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AS THE WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO AT LEAST TO H9/H875 WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE
70S IF THERE IS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MUCH DIFFERENT STORY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR BARELY REACHING ABOVE 50 DEGREES
AND ONLY INTO THE 50S FARTHER INLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. NOTHING TOO HIGH IMPACT IN TERMS OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH ON LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORE...NOTHING TOO ATYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

BACK TO THE IMPACTS TIED TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LARGE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GREATEST SURGE OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL ONLY OCCURS FOR
BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE H85 JET VEERS MORE WEST BY
12Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE PROFILE BLO AN INVERSION AT H9-H85...BUT BLYR WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TO
JAMES BAY WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERALL...COULD SEE SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LK MICHIGAN WITH SOME GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON THE LAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN CWA. ATTM THINK THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

ADDITIONAL IMPACT COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTN AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES UP OVER 1500J/KG AND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY...0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KTS. NAM
QUITE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS MUCH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER 30 KTS SHOW SOME INCREASE 15-21Z
SATURDAY OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA...BUT STILL REMAIN MAINLY BLO 10
PCT. FREEZING LEVEL IS 9-11KFT AND HEIGHT THAT CORES ALOFT WOULD
HAVE TO REACH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE 1 INCH HAIL IS 27-30KFT...
SO LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
STEEP...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR H9-H7 AND STRONG WINDS H7-H5...SUPPOSE
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT TOO SFC. PRIMARY AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN SW H85 JET AND WHERE THE SFC DWPNTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S.
DOES SEEM IF TIMING WORKS OUT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME TSRA WITH COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP H7-H4 LAPSE RATES/COLD POCKET AT H5/. NO STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
20 KTS BY THIS TIME. BESIDES THE CHILL THAT WILL BE IN THE AIR ON
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
H85-H5 THERMAL TROUGHING/EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS. WATER TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE IN THE 6-8C RANGE BASED ON BUOYS AND SHIP
REPORTS. IMMEDIATE NSH AREAS OF SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR MAY BE OVER 10C
IN SOME SPOTS BUT THAT IS LOCALIZED. THEREFORE WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING
ABOVE 0C WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TRENDING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SFC RIDGE EXPANDING EAST FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...TROUGHING ALOFT DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINT OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RE-INFORCING SFC TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WAVE AND
WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...KEEP BULK OF WAVE AND MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN MUCH SHRA. SINCE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THIS WAY WITH 12Z
RUN...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY AT THE SFC THEN
ALOFT AS WELL BUILDS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS
LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND AFTN SFC DWPNTS IN THE 30S INDICATE
THERE COULD BE FROST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CWA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT /H85 TEMPS OVER
10C/ WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH
THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AT IWD...AND BRING MVFR
CIGS TO CMX AND SAW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY S TO SSW
WINDS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING -SHRA TO WESTERN
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
IWD OR CMX UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
A TROUGH MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE N AND
INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 181930
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC INTO THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. THE SHALLOW INTRUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO SRN WI HAS SHARPENED A 925 MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MI AND
NRN WI. IN ADDITION...MOISTENING FROM THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR... WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT...HAS ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE
THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
6C...EXPECT MAX READINGS IN THE MID 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
AND WEST.

TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE INFLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING PCPN WILL REMAIN NW
OF THE CWA...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
LATE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
MAIN REASON THIS OCCURS IS 125+ KT H25 JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS JET
ENERGY REACHES NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY IT WILL HELP DEVELOP TROUGH
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. INITIAL WAVE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SHORTWAVE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL BLO 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AS THE WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO AT LEAST TO H9/H875 WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE
70S IF THERE IS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MUCH DIFFERENT STORY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR BARELY REACHING ABOVE 50 DEGREES
AND ONLY INTO THE 50S FARTHER INLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. NOTHING TOO HIGH IMPACT IN TERMS OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH ON LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORE...NOTHING TOO ATYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

BACK TO THE IMPACTS TIED TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LARGE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GREATEST SURGE OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL ONLY OCCURS FOR
BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE H85 JET VEERS MORE WEST BY
12Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE PROFILE BLO AN INVERSION AT H9-H85...BUT BLYR WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TO
JAMES BAY WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERALL...COULD SEE SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LK MICHIGAN WITH SOME GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON THE LAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN CWA. ATTM THINK THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

ADDITIONAL IMPACT COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTN AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES UP OVER 1500J/KG AND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY...0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KTS. NAM
QUITE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS MUCH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER 30 KTS SHOW SOME INCREASE 15-21Z
SATURDAY OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA...BUT STILL REMAIN MAINLY BLO 10
PCT. FREEZING LEVEL IS 9-11KFT AND HEIGHT THAT CORES ALOFT WOULD
HAVE TO REACH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE 1 INCH HAIL IS 27-30KFT...
SO LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
STEEP...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR H9-H7 AND STRONG WINDS H7-H5...SUPPOSE
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT TOO SFC. PRIMARY AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN SW H85 JET AND WHERE THE SFC DWPNTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S.
DOES SEEM IF TIMING WORKS OUT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME TSRA WITH COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP H7-H4 LAPSE RATES/COLD POCKET AT H5/. NO STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
20 KTS BY THIS TIME. BESIDES THE CHILL THAT WILL BE IN THE AIR ON
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
H85-H5 THERMAL TROUGHING/EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS. WATER TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE IN THE 6-8C RANGE BASED ON BUOYS AND SHIP
REPORTS. IMMEDIATE NSH AREAS OF SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR MAY BE OVER 10C
IN SOME SPOTS BUT THAT IS LOCALIZED. THEREFORE WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING
ABOVE 0C WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TRENDING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SFC RIDGE EXPANDING EAST FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...TROUGHING ALOFT DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINT OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RE-INFORCING SFC TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WAVE AND
WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...KEEP BULK OF WAVE AND MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN MUCH SHRA. SINCE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THIS WAY WITH 12Z
RUN...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY AT THE SFC THEN
ALOFT AS WELL BUILDS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS
LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND AFTN SFC DWPNTS IN THE 30S INDICATE
THERE COULD BE FROST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CWA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT /H85 TEMPS OVER
10C/ WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH
THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AT IWD...AND BRING MVFR
CIGS TO CMX AND SAW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY S TO SSW
WINDS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING -SHRA TO WESTERN
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
IWD OR CMX UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
A TROUGH MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE N AND
INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 181930
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC INTO THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. THE SHALLOW INTRUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO SRN WI HAS SHARPENED A 925 MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MI AND
NRN WI. IN ADDITION...MOISTENING FROM THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR... WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT...HAS ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE
THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
6C...EXPECT MAX READINGS IN THE MID 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
AND WEST.

TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE INFLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING PCPN WILL REMAIN NW
OF THE CWA...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
LATE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
MAIN REASON THIS OCCURS IS 125+ KT H25 JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS JET
ENERGY REACHES NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY IT WILL HELP DEVELOP TROUGH
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. INITIAL WAVE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SHORTWAVE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL BLO 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AS THE WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO AT LEAST TO H9/H875 WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE
70S IF THERE IS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MUCH DIFFERENT STORY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR BARELY REACHING ABOVE 50 DEGREES
AND ONLY INTO THE 50S FARTHER INLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. NOTHING TOO HIGH IMPACT IN TERMS OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH ON LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORE...NOTHING TOO ATYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

BACK TO THE IMPACTS TIED TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LARGE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GREATEST SURGE OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL ONLY OCCURS FOR
BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE H85 JET VEERS MORE WEST BY
12Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE PROFILE BLO AN INVERSION AT H9-H85...BUT BLYR WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TO
JAMES BAY WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERALL...COULD SEE SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LK MICHIGAN WITH SOME GUSTS 30-35 MPH ON THE LAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN CWA. ATTM THINK THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

ADDITIONAL IMPACT COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTN AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES UP OVER 1500J/KG AND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY...0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KTS. NAM
QUITE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS MUCH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER 30 KTS SHOW SOME INCREASE 15-21Z
SATURDAY OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA...BUT STILL REMAIN MAINLY BLO 10
PCT. FREEZING LEVEL IS 9-11KFT AND HEIGHT THAT CORES ALOFT WOULD
HAVE TO REACH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE 1 INCH HAIL IS 27-30KFT...
SO LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
STEEP...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR H9-H7 AND STRONG WINDS H7-H5...SUPPOSE
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT TOO SFC. PRIMARY AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN SW H85 JET AND WHERE THE SFC DWPNTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S.
DOES SEEM IF TIMING WORKS OUT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME TSRA WITH COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP H7-H4 LAPSE RATES/COLD POCKET AT H5/. NO STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
20 KTS BY THIS TIME. BESIDES THE CHILL THAT WILL BE IN THE AIR ON
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
H85-H5 THERMAL TROUGHING/EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS. WATER TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE IN THE 6-8C RANGE BASED ON BUOYS AND SHIP
REPORTS. IMMEDIATE NSH AREAS OF SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR MAY BE OVER 10C
IN SOME SPOTS BUT THAT IS LOCALIZED. THEREFORE WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING
ABOVE 0C WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TRENDING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SFC RIDGE EXPANDING EAST FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...TROUGHING ALOFT DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINT OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RE-INFORCING SFC TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WAVE AND
WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...KEEP BULK OF WAVE AND MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN MUCH SHRA. SINCE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THIS WAY WITH 12Z
RUN...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY AT THE SFC THEN
ALOFT AS WELL BUILDS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS
LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND AFTN SFC DWPNTS IN THE 30S INDICATE
THERE COULD BE FROST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CWA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT /H85 TEMPS OVER
10C/ WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH
THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AT IWD...AND BRING MVFR
CIGS TO CMX AND SAW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY S TO SSW
WINDS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING -SHRA TO WESTERN
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
IWD OR CMX UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
A TROUGH MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE N AND
INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181906
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.  IT WILL BE
A SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.  THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER CENTRAL LOWER TO AROUND
80 OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE DRY.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COUPLE CONCERNS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST TONIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.

THE FROST POTENTIAL SEEMS REDUCED TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
BEHIND A DIEING COLD FRONT REMAIN MOIST.  CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE AREA A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT SO RAISE MINS SLIGHTLY AND WILL
ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND JUST HOW
UNSTABLE WE BECOME.  WITH A QUICKER FRONT...AS THE GFS SHOWS...WE
WOULD CLOUD OVER WITH SHOWERS SPREADING IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INSTABILITY.  THE ECMWF AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A SLOWER FRONT...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.  AS LONG AS WE ARE ABLE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE IN THE 40-50 KTS RANGE FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 2K FT SUGGESTING A WIND THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM.  AT THIS POINT I AM LEANING TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WITH THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z SAT AND
02Z SUN.  DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE MODE...BUT SOME
SEVERE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE TOO.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER SATURDAY EVENING.

UNTIL THEN FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY NICE DAY. SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS TOWARD NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK.  TOUGH SATURDAY MAX TEMP FORECAST
DUE TO TIMING ISSUES STATED ABOVE.  HAVE UPPER 60S OVER THE NW WHERE
THE SHOWERS ARRIVE FIRST...WHILE SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY
HIT 80 IF THERE IS A DELAY IN THE PCPN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ZONES. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS RISE WITH UPPER RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN.
SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST BLO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON FRIDAY.  WE MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LONG
FETCH.  THESE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER WAVES
SHOULD BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS.  IT WILL LIKELY STAY
ROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.  THE
WINDS LIGHTEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SHIFTING TO THE NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY.  OVERALL
EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL SEE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR TWO INCHES SATURDAY
EVENING...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK









000
FXUS63 KGRR 181756
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
156 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM DRAWING DOWN A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRACK
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.
CLOUDS BEHIND THE WASHED OUT FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTH TODAY. EVEN THE I-94 CORRIDOR WILL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS BY
ABOUT 1 PM. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SOUTH MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S PRIOR TO
THE CLOUDS ARRIVING...WHILE THE FAR NE CWA WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL END UP AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MOISTURE WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK...THUS THE LOW RISK FOR RAIN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS
MY NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN...BUT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. AS A
RESULT SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 COULD STAY MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. LATEST
TRENDS FROM THE HIGH RES EURO SHOW STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AND DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES DOWN TO -6 DEG C. NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
SEVERE STORMS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING AND MENTION THE RISK
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
MILDER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS MONDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. DRY WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN.
SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST BLO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS BIG
AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND INTO
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STORMS PERSIST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES...BUT CONSIDERABLE RISES ON AREA RIVERS IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 181756
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
156 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM DRAWING DOWN A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRACK
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.
CLOUDS BEHIND THE WASHED OUT FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTH TODAY. EVEN THE I-94 CORRIDOR WILL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS BY
ABOUT 1 PM. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SOUTH MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S PRIOR TO
THE CLOUDS ARRIVING...WHILE THE FAR NE CWA WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL END UP AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MOISTURE WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK...THUS THE LOW RISK FOR RAIN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS
MY NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN...BUT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. AS A
RESULT SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 COULD STAY MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. LATEST
TRENDS FROM THE HIGH RES EURO SHOW STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AND DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES DOWN TO -6 DEG C. NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
SEVERE STORMS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING AND MENTION THE RISK
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
MILDER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS MONDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. DRY WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN.
SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST BLO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS BIG
AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND INTO
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STORMS PERSIST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES...BUT CONSIDERABLE RISES ON AREA RIVERS IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...OSTUNO







000
FXUS63 KMQT 181747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC INTO THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. THE SHALLOW INTRUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO SRN WI HAS SHARPENED A 925 MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MI AND
NRN WI. IN ADDITION...MOISTENING FROM THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR... WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT...HAS ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE
THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
6C...EXPECT MAX READINGS IN THE MID 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
AND WEST.

TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE INFLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING PCPN WILL REMAIN NW
OF THE CWA...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
LATE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON CHCS FOR SHRA FRI THRU SUN AS A SERIES
OF SHRTWVS IN A W-NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI. STRENGTHENING WAA AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER (MORE THAN 180 PCT OF NORMAL) OVER
THE FCST AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -4C BY FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSRA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND OVER THE E HALF FRI EVNG...WHEN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV
WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THOSE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLD COVER
WL HOLD DOWN SFC HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AIR. EXPECT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG
SW FLOW AND INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT.

SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS WILL PROPEL THE SFC LOW PRES TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FNT
THRU THE UPR LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AS DYNAMICS
WITH SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES FCST IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDER AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON SAT AND
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL
CWA COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
PEAK AS HI AS 16-17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE
REGION. THE RESULTING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS 2-4C BY LATE SUN. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT H85 TEMPS WL FALL ENOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF A LK
ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NGT WITH WSHFT TO
THE N GIVEN FAIRLY CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS OF 8-9C.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL FROM MON THRU WED. MON IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
HI SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND TUE THRU
WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AT IWD...AND BRING MVFR
CIGS TO CMX AND SAW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY S TO SSW
WINDS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING -SHRA TO WESTERN
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
IWD OR CMX UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
A TROUGH MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE N AND
INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 181747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC INTO THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. THE SHALLOW INTRUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO SRN WI HAS SHARPENED A 925 MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MI AND
NRN WI. IN ADDITION...MOISTENING FROM THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR... WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT...HAS ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE
THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
6C...EXPECT MAX READINGS IN THE MID 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
AND WEST.

TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE INFLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING PCPN WILL REMAIN NW
OF THE CWA...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
LATE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON CHCS FOR SHRA FRI THRU SUN AS A SERIES
OF SHRTWVS IN A W-NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI. STRENGTHENING WAA AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER (MORE THAN 180 PCT OF NORMAL) OVER
THE FCST AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -4C BY FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSRA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND OVER THE E HALF FRI EVNG...WHEN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV
WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THOSE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLD COVER
WL HOLD DOWN SFC HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AIR. EXPECT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG
SW FLOW AND INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT.

SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS WILL PROPEL THE SFC LOW PRES TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FNT
THRU THE UPR LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AS DYNAMICS
WITH SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES FCST IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDER AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON SAT AND
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL
CWA COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
PEAK AS HI AS 16-17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE
REGION. THE RESULTING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS 2-4C BY LATE SUN. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT H85 TEMPS WL FALL ENOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF A LK
ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NGT WITH WSHFT TO
THE N GIVEN FAIRLY CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS OF 8-9C.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL FROM MON THRU WED. MON IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
HI SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND TUE THRU
WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AT IWD...AND BRING MVFR
CIGS TO CMX AND SAW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY S TO SSW
WINDS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING -SHRA TO WESTERN
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
IWD OR CMX UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
A TROUGH MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE N AND
INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 181747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC INTO THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. THE SHALLOW INTRUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO SRN WI HAS SHARPENED A 925 MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MI AND
NRN WI. IN ADDITION...MOISTENING FROM THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR... WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT...HAS ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE
THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
6C...EXPECT MAX READINGS IN THE MID 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
AND WEST.

TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE INFLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING PCPN WILL REMAIN NW
OF THE CWA...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
LATE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON CHCS FOR SHRA FRI THRU SUN AS A SERIES
OF SHRTWVS IN A W-NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI. STRENGTHENING WAA AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER (MORE THAN 180 PCT OF NORMAL) OVER
THE FCST AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -4C BY FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSRA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND OVER THE E HALF FRI EVNG...WHEN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV
WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THOSE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLD COVER
WL HOLD DOWN SFC HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AIR. EXPECT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG
SW FLOW AND INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT.

SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS WILL PROPEL THE SFC LOW PRES TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FNT
THRU THE UPR LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AS DYNAMICS
WITH SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES FCST IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDER AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON SAT AND
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL
CWA COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
PEAK AS HI AS 16-17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE
REGION. THE RESULTING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS 2-4C BY LATE SUN. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT H85 TEMPS WL FALL ENOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF A LK
ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NGT WITH WSHFT TO
THE N GIVEN FAIRLY CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS OF 8-9C.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL FROM MON THRU WED. MON IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
HI SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND TUE THRU
WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AT IWD...AND BRING MVFR
CIGS TO CMX AND SAW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY S TO SSW
WINDS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING -SHRA TO WESTERN
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
IWD OR CMX UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
A TROUGH MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE N AND
INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 181747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC INTO THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. THE SHALLOW INTRUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO SRN WI HAS SHARPENED A 925 MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MI AND
NRN WI. IN ADDITION...MOISTENING FROM THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR... WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT...HAS ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE
THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
6C...EXPECT MAX READINGS IN THE MID 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
AND WEST.

TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE INFLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING PCPN WILL REMAIN NW
OF THE CWA...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
LATE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON CHCS FOR SHRA FRI THRU SUN AS A SERIES
OF SHRTWVS IN A W-NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI. STRENGTHENING WAA AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER (MORE THAN 180 PCT OF NORMAL) OVER
THE FCST AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -4C BY FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSRA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND OVER THE E HALF FRI EVNG...WHEN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV
WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THOSE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLD COVER
WL HOLD DOWN SFC HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AIR. EXPECT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG
SW FLOW AND INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT.

SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS WILL PROPEL THE SFC LOW PRES TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FNT
THRU THE UPR LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AS DYNAMICS
WITH SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES FCST IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDER AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON SAT AND
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL
CWA COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
PEAK AS HI AS 16-17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE
REGION. THE RESULTING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS 2-4C BY LATE SUN. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT H85 TEMPS WL FALL ENOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF A LK
ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NGT WITH WSHFT TO
THE N GIVEN FAIRLY CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS OF 8-9C.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL FROM MON THRU WED. MON IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
HI SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND TUE THRU
WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AT IWD...AND BRING MVFR
CIGS TO CMX AND SAW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY S TO SSW
WINDS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING -SHRA TO WESTERN
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
IWD OR CMX UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
A TROUGH MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE N AND
INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 181731
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
131 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THEN PUSHES OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. SO AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LARGE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE FAR NRN GREAT
LAKES INTO ONTARIO THIS MORNING. SFC COLD FRONT NOW SUPPRESSED
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. A FAIRLY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS SITS
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER THIS MORNINGS APX/GRB SOUNDINGS. BUT
AS ANTICIPATED...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS MANAGED TO EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN UNDER THE STOUT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WITH TEMPS RUNNING JUST ABOVE 0C AT THE BOTTOM
OF THE INVERSION...HAVE QUITE A BIT OF LAKE CLOUD BANDS ON HURON
AND MICHIGAN AS WELL...AND JUST A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. EASTERN UPPER DID CLEAR OUT FINALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT TO LATE TO GET WIDESPREAD FROST.

TODAY...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN EASTERN UPPER WITH A NE-E FLOW
TRAJECTORY OFF ONTARIO. BUT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...STUCK WITH CLOUDS
FOR AWHILE. NE-E LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX OFF HURON AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONSPIRE TO KEEP CLOUDY SKIES INTACT FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. BUT I REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC THAT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE TWEAKED SKY FORECASTS JUST A BIT
TO KEEP CLOUDY SKIES AROUND LONGER.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ON TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. AM
CONCERNED THAT WHATEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OUT THERE WILL
SIMPLY GET RECYCLED BACK TO THE NORTH AND BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
EXPANDING STRATUS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
CERTAINLY THAT TIME OF YEAR FOR THAT SORT OF NUISANCE STUFF TO
HAPPEN AND NAM12 925 RH FORECASTS CERTAINLY SUPPORT THAT IDEA. OF
COURSE THAT HAS BIG TEMPERATURE AND FROST IMPLICATIONS. WILL
PONDER THESE ISSUES FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAD TO ADD PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS SINCE WE`VE BEEN GETTING SOME BITS OF PRECIP
RECENTLY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HILLTOPS PROBABLY NOT
HURTING THE CAUSE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR NORTHERN LOWER TODAY/FROST POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  BENEATH THIS SURFACE HIGH...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT AND 00Z YPL 850MB TEMPERATURE WAS DOWN TO -4C.  SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC...AND THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SMALL
VORTICITY CENTER CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
POCKET OF DRY AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR PREVENTING THIS
FEATURE FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT.  LOW STRATUS WAS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOME THINNING
OF CLOUD COVER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  PROBABLY SOME LAKE MICHIGAN/
HURON COMPONENT TO CLOUD COVER SETTING UP WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 4-6C AND WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 16C ON LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 12-14C NORTHERN LAKE HURON.

COLD FRONT WILLS SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WHILE CENTRAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS TODAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND
RESULTANT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN MORE PERSISTENT EARLY THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE CLEARING IS KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR OF THE ST. MARY`S RIVER.  BUT THIS ISN`T BODING WELL FOR
FROST POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SKIES TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WILL
PROBABLY CAN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WITH
08Z FORECAST ISSUANCE.  BELOW THE BRIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOUR
ON THE PROSPECTS FOR MUCH SUN TO START THE DAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
BEING REINFORCED BY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE HURON.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MIX INTO A HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS DECK DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND PROBABLY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER NORTHWEST LOWER WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL OVER NORTHEAST LOWER PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-32.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY 50S/AROUND 60 WEST OF
THE M-37 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR-PARTLY
CLOUDY.  DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS (OR
FOG PATCHES) TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRONGER GRADIENT THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE A
LITTLE BREEZE POP UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO JUST
A COUPLE OF STICKING POINTS TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ON THE PLUS SIDE WE WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE EVENING GIVEN
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS
LONG AS THERE IS A LACK OF CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY
GOOD FROST THREAT FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS RAISES SOME QUESTIONS FOR EASTERN UPPER FROST
POSSIBILITIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST THREAT FOR
NORTHERN LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF AGAIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING THEN FROST POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE RENEWED RIDGING OUT WEST INDUCES MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS BY MID WEEK
(IN OTHER WORDS GET READY FOR A ROLLER COASTER RIDE). THIS SCENARIO
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND/OR HEAVY
RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE SAILS OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY BUT HOLDS ON WHAT LOOKS
LIKE LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY LEADING TO A
"WARMER" AND MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS OVER THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF WE
CAN MIX OUT...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEFINITELY EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE AS STRONG THETA-E RIDGING PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES ON SATURDAY...AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THEN DROPS IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON
JUST HOW DEEP/COLD THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE ON THE
MORE MELLOW SIDE (NOT AS COLD). EITHER WAY...COOL AIR LOOKS TO BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE RENEWED
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS (MORE ON THAT MUCH LATER).

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELY WARMER MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS A TOUGH CALL AS IT WILL BE VERY WARM ALOFT BUT
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING TOO
CRAZY). HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE COOLER UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A TAD MILDER WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S EXPECTED. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE STILL MILD LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT/ THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE CHILLY MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING SOME FROST).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUD DECK COVERS MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT IS MIXING/
ERODING AWAY. ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AT TVC AND WILL BE SOON AT
MBL AND PLN. APN WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AS NE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON IS BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF LAKE CLOUDS INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT THERE AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING.
SUSPECT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOP/EXPAND
BACK UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS CYCLED BACK NORTHWARD IN THE
VEERING FLOW. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE TERMINAL FORECASTS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUDS SPREADING BACK INTO THE
REGION (SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING). HOWEVER...INCREASING S/SW
FLOW ON FRIDAY (INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS) SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUD COVER MUCH QUICKER FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY...WILL NEED TO
CHECK ON RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION ON LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE IF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MAINTAINED THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...AJS
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 181731
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
131 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THEN PUSHES OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. SO AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LARGE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE FAR NRN GREAT
LAKES INTO ONTARIO THIS MORNING. SFC COLD FRONT NOW SUPPRESSED
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. A FAIRLY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS SITS
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER THIS MORNINGS APX/GRB SOUNDINGS. BUT
AS ANTICIPATED...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS MANAGED TO EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN UNDER THE STOUT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WITH TEMPS RUNNING JUST ABOVE 0C AT THE BOTTOM
OF THE INVERSION...HAVE QUITE A BIT OF LAKE CLOUD BANDS ON HURON
AND MICHIGAN AS WELL...AND JUST A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. EASTERN UPPER DID CLEAR OUT FINALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT TO LATE TO GET WIDESPREAD FROST.

TODAY...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN EASTERN UPPER WITH A NE-E FLOW
TRAJECTORY OFF ONTARIO. BUT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...STUCK WITH CLOUDS
FOR AWHILE. NE-E LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX OFF HURON AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONSPIRE TO KEEP CLOUDY SKIES INTACT FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. BUT I REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC THAT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE TWEAKED SKY FORECASTS JUST A BIT
TO KEEP CLOUDY SKIES AROUND LONGER.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ON TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. AM
CONCERNED THAT WHATEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OUT THERE WILL
SIMPLY GET RECYCLED BACK TO THE NORTH AND BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
EXPANDING STRATUS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
CERTAINLY THAT TIME OF YEAR FOR THAT SORT OF NUISANCE STUFF TO
HAPPEN AND NAM12 925 RH FORECASTS CERTAINLY SUPPORT THAT IDEA. OF
COURSE THAT HAS BIG TEMPERATURE AND FROST IMPLICATIONS. WILL
PONDER THESE ISSUES FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAD TO ADD PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS SINCE WE`VE BEEN GETTING SOME BITS OF PRECIP
RECENTLY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HILLTOPS PROBABLY NOT
HURTING THE CAUSE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR NORTHERN LOWER TODAY/FROST POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  BENEATH THIS SURFACE HIGH...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT AND 00Z YPL 850MB TEMPERATURE WAS DOWN TO -4C.  SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC...AND THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SMALL
VORTICITY CENTER CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
POCKET OF DRY AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR PREVENTING THIS
FEATURE FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT.  LOW STRATUS WAS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOME THINNING
OF CLOUD COVER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  PROBABLY SOME LAKE MICHIGAN/
HURON COMPONENT TO CLOUD COVER SETTING UP WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 4-6C AND WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 16C ON LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 12-14C NORTHERN LAKE HURON.

COLD FRONT WILLS SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WHILE CENTRAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS TODAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND
RESULTANT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN MORE PERSISTENT EARLY THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE CLEARING IS KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR OF THE ST. MARY`S RIVER.  BUT THIS ISN`T BODING WELL FOR
FROST POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SKIES TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WILL
PROBABLY CAN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WITH
08Z FORECAST ISSUANCE.  BELOW THE BRIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOUR
ON THE PROSPECTS FOR MUCH SUN TO START THE DAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
BEING REINFORCED BY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE HURON.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MIX INTO A HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS DECK DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND PROBABLY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER NORTHWEST LOWER WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL OVER NORTHEAST LOWER PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-32.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY 50S/AROUND 60 WEST OF
THE M-37 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR-PARTLY
CLOUDY.  DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS (OR
FOG PATCHES) TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRONGER GRADIENT THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE A
LITTLE BREEZE POP UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO JUST
A COUPLE OF STICKING POINTS TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ON THE PLUS SIDE WE WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE EVENING GIVEN
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS
LONG AS THERE IS A LACK OF CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY
GOOD FROST THREAT FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS RAISES SOME QUESTIONS FOR EASTERN UPPER FROST
POSSIBILITIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST THREAT FOR
NORTHERN LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF AGAIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING THEN FROST POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE RENEWED RIDGING OUT WEST INDUCES MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS BY MID WEEK
(IN OTHER WORDS GET READY FOR A ROLLER COASTER RIDE). THIS SCENARIO
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND/OR HEAVY
RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE SAILS OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY BUT HOLDS ON WHAT LOOKS
LIKE LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY LEADING TO A
"WARMER" AND MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS OVER THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF WE
CAN MIX OUT...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEFINITELY EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE AS STRONG THETA-E RIDGING PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES ON SATURDAY...AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THEN DROPS IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON
JUST HOW DEEP/COLD THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE ON THE
MORE MELLOW SIDE (NOT AS COLD). EITHER WAY...COOL AIR LOOKS TO BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE RENEWED
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS (MORE ON THAT MUCH LATER).

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELY WARMER MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS A TOUGH CALL AS IT WILL BE VERY WARM ALOFT BUT
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING TOO
CRAZY). HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE COOLER UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A TAD MILDER WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S EXPECTED. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE STILL MILD LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT/ THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE CHILLY MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING SOME FROST).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUD DECK COVERS MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT IS MIXING/
ERODING AWAY. ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AT TVC AND WILL BE SOON AT
MBL AND PLN. APN WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AS NE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON IS BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF LAKE CLOUDS INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT THERE AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING.
SUSPECT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOP/EXPAND
BACK UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS CYCLED BACK NORTHWARD IN THE
VEERING FLOW. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE TERMINAL FORECASTS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUDS SPREADING BACK INTO THE
REGION (SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING). HOWEVER...INCREASING S/SW
FLOW ON FRIDAY (INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS) SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUD COVER MUCH QUICKER FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY...WILL NEED TO
CHECK ON RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION ON LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE IF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MAINTAINED THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...AJS
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KDTX 181730
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FILLS IN BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND IS
MAINTAINED BY NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING TODAY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RISE IN
CEILINGS...BUT STILL EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM PTK NORTHWARD.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THEN FOR TONIGHT AS FLOW OFF LAKE HURON
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. CURRENTLY...CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN ALIGNED FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
ONTARIO....BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH...WHILE NORTHEAST FLOW
REMAINS EARLY OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN...ALLOWING FOR SOME STRATUS
RE-DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR BKN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE ALONG A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AXIS THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF THE STATE...WITH MBS
INCLUDED. IN ADDITION...VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKES ERIE AND
ST CLAIR WILL ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR BR TO FORM NEAR THE DETROIT
TERMINALS. DID ADD A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR VISIBILITIES FRIDAY
MORNING FOR DTW...DET...AND YIP.

FOR DTW...LOWER CLOUDS ARE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HIGHER CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK THAN SEEN
UPSTREAM SO FAR TODAY...AND STILL HAVE JUST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
CEILINGS BKN BELOW 5000 FEET. SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER LIGHT FOG
WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FELT GOOD ENOUGH
WITH CALM CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TO INTRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MVFR VIS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EMERGING LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXITS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.  STEADY
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
TUCKED BENEATH THE ATTENDANT INVERSION WILL LEAVE A BROAD CANOPY OF
LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU IN PLACE THROUGH THE HALF OF THE DAY FOR POINTS
NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE NOT
NEARLY AS SATURATED TOWARD THE SOUTH...WHERE DAYTIME MIXING WILL
TAKE A STRONGER FOOTHOLD EARLY ON.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
INSOLATION UNDER A HIGHER DEGREE OF SUN.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF A RATHER TIGHT 925 MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A LARGER DISTRIBUTION IN HIGHS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FRMO THE MID 60S NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER TO MID 50S IN THE THUMB.

MODEL 925/850 MB RH FIELDS AND SOUNDING DATA POINT FAVORABLY TOWARD
SEEING A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.  IT
DOES REMAIN PLAUSIBLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED STRATUS TO FILL IN
LATE TONIGHT UNDER STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK.  LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT.  LOWS FROM MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WESTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...HERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REMAIN DECIDEDLY SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BONE DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. TEXTBOOK DEEP COLUMN SUBSIDENCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SUN SPLASHED SKIES. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT
MUTED IN THE DRY AIRMASS...SQUASHED BY THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BENEFIT FROM INSOLATION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
FOR MANY AREAS.

MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PV ANOMALY AND CREST THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN ENERGY THAT WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODEL EVOLUTION HAS THIS LEAD JET ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN ENERGY PLOW...UNDERGOING A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO THE
HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS JET ENERGY FALLS
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE STRUCTURE FLASHES WAY
EASTWARD. THUS...THE MODELS DO SUPPORT SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE
MAKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO KICK OFF THE POPS. THE PROBLEM
IS AND IT IS A BIG PROBLEM IS OVERALL DEPTH AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE.
TO PUT IT BLUNTLY THERE ARE GOING TO BE MAJOR MOISTURE ISSUES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WHILE ANY GOMEX
FEED IS COMPLETELY NON EXISTENT. SO...THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE IS
WHAT THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL CARRY OVER FROM THE PACIFIC. INITIALLY
WITH THIS BREAKOFF ENERGY TO BEGIN THINGS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME HYDROMETEORS GIVEN
THE OUTSTANDING WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT...BUT DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT TEMPERS THINGS.

THE MAIN PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL JET SURGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH WILL CAUSE THE MAIN
SURGE OF THETA E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST CVA WILL LAG BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS...SO BEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT OR MAIN THETA E CONTENT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA.
GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN WITHOUT ANY EML PUSH OR GOMEX CONNECTION LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE PITIFUL. FOR NOW WILL BE LEAVING THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST WHILE KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SUNDAY DRIES OUT POSTFRONTALLY...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUD SHOULD PERSIST IN CAA REGIME. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

MARINE...

WINDS HAVE RESPONDED UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ROCKETED SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
COMMONPLACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME CALM TONIGHT WHILE
ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE LULL WILL BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW EPISODE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SAGINAW BAY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 181510
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM DRAWING DOWN A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRACK
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.
CLOUDS BEHIND THE WASHED OUT FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTH TODAY. EVEN THE I-94 COORIDOR WILL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS BY
ABOUT 1 PM. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SOUTH MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S PRIOR TO
THE CLOUDS ARRIVING...WHILE THE FAR NE CWA WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL END UP AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MOISTURE WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK...THUS THE LOW RISK FOR RAIN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS
MY NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN...BUT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. AS A
RESULT SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 COULD STAY MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. LATEST
TRENDS FROM THE HIGH RES EURO SHOW STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AND DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES DOWN TO -6 DEG C. NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
SEVERE STORMS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING AND MENTION THE RISK
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
MILDER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS MONDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. DRY WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 912 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

EXTENDED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT LAN TO 15Z AS LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW AREA OF FOG APPROACHING. MEANWHILE...JXN HAS GONE VFR
AS THE FOG THERE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND MAY AFFECT BTL AND RMY. THE
LIFR AT GRR SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE COLD FRONT COMES IN BY
16Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS BIG
AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND INTO
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STORMS PERSIST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES...BUT CONSIDERABLE RISES ON AREA RIVERS IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...OSTUNO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181510
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM DRAWING DOWN A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRACK
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.
CLOUDS BEHIND THE WASHED OUT FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTH TODAY. EVEN THE I-94 COORIDOR WILL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS BY
ABOUT 1 PM. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SOUTH MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S PRIOR TO
THE CLOUDS ARRIVING...WHILE THE FAR NE CWA WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL END UP AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MOISTURE WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK...THUS THE LOW RISK FOR RAIN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS
MY NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN...BUT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. AS A
RESULT SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 COULD STAY MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. LATEST
TRENDS FROM THE HIGH RES EURO SHOW STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AND DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES DOWN TO -6 DEG C. NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
SEVERE STORMS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING AND MENTION THE RISK
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
MILDER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS MONDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. DRY WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 912 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

EXTENDED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT LAN TO 15Z AS LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW AREA OF FOG APPROACHING. MEANWHILE...JXN HAS GONE VFR
AS THE FOG THERE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND MAY AFFECT BTL AND RMY. THE
LIFR AT GRR SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE COLD FRONT COMES IN BY
16Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS BIG
AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND INTO
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STORMS PERSIST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES...BUT CONSIDERABLE RISES ON AREA RIVERS IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KAPX 181433
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1033 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THEN PUSHES OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. SO AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LARGE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE FAR NRN GREAT
LAKES INTO ONTARIO THIS MORNING. SFC COLD FRONT NOW SUPPRESSED
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. A FAIRLY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS SITS
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER THIS MORNINGS APX/GRB SOUNDINGS. BUT
AS ANTICIPATED...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS MANAGED TO EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN UNDER THE STOUT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WITH TEMPS RUNNING JUST ABOVE 0C AT THE BOTTOM
OF THE INVERSION...HAVE QUITE A BIT OF LAKE CLOUD BANDS ON HURON
AND MICHIGAN AS WELL...AND JUST A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. EASTERN UPPER DID CLEAR OUT FINALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT TO LATE TO GET WIDESPREAD FROST.

TODAY...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN EASTERN UPPER WITH A NE-E FLOW
TRAJECTORY OFF ONTARIO. BUT NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...STUCK WITH CLOUDS
FOR AWHILE. NE-E LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX OFF HURON AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONSPIRE TO KEEP CLOUDY SKIES INTACT FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. BUT I REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC THAT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE TWEAKED SKY FORECASTS JUST A BIT
TO KEEP CLOUDY SKIES AROUND LONGER.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ON TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. AM
CONCERNED THAT WHATEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OUT THERE WILL
SIMPLY GET RECYCLED BACK TO THE NORTH AND BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
EXPANDING STRATUS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
CERTAINLY THAT TIME OF YEAR FOR THAT SORT OF NUISANCE STUFF TO
HAPPEN AND NAM12 925 RH FORECASTS CERTAINLY SUPPORT THAT IDEA. OF
COURSE THAT HAS BIG TEMPERATURE AND FROST IMPLICATIONS. WILL
PONDER THESE ISSUES FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAD TO ADD PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS SINCE WE`VE BEEN GETTING SOME BITS OF PRECIP
RECENTLY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HILLTOPS PROBABLY NOT
HURTING THE CAUSE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR NORTHERN LOWER TODAY/FROST POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  BENEATH THIS SURFACE HIGH...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT AND 00Z YPL 850MB TEMPERATURE WAS DOWN TO -4C.  SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC...AND THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SMALL
VORTICITY CENTER CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
POCKET OF DRY AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR PREVENTING THIS
FEATURE FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT.  LOW STRATUS WAS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOME THINNING
OF CLOUD COVER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  PROBABLY SOME LAKE MICHIGAN/
HURON COMPONENT TO CLOUD COVER SETTING UP WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 4-6C AND WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 16C ON LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 12-14C NORTHERN LAKE HURON.

COLD FRONT WILLS SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WHILE CENTRAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS TODAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND
RESULTANT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN MORE PERSISTENT EARLY THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE CLEARING IS KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR OF THE ST. MARY`S RIVER.  BUT THIS ISN`T BODING WELL FOR
FROST POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SKIES TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WILL
PROBABLY CAN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WITH
08Z FORECAST ISSUANCE.  BELOW THE BRIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOUR
ON THE PROSPECTS FOR MUCH SUN TO START THE DAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
BEING REINFORCED BY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE HURON.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MIX INTO A HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS DECK DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND PROBABLY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER NORTHWEST LOWER WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL OVER NORTHEAST LOWER PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-32.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY 50S/AROUND 60 WEST OF
THE M-37 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR-PARTLY
CLOUDY.  DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS (OR
FOG PATCHES) TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRONGER GRADIENT THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE A
LITTLE BREEZE POP UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO JUST
A COUPLE OF STICKING POINTS TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ON THE PLUS SIDE WE WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE EVENING GIVEN
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS
LONG AS THERE IS A LACK OF CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY
GOOD FROST THREAT FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS RAISES SOME QUESTIONS FOR EASTERN UPPER FROST
POSSIBILITIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST THREAT FOR
NORTHERN LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF AGAIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING THEN FROST POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE RENEWED RIDGING OUT WEST INDUCES MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS BY MID WEEK
(IN OTHER WORDS GET READY FOR A ROLLER COASTER RIDE). THIS SCENARIO
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND/OR HEAVY
RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE SAILS OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY BUT HOLDS ON WHAT LOOKS
LIKE LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY LEADING TO A
"WARMER" AND MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS OVER THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF WE
CAN MIX OUT...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEFINITELY EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE AS STRONG THETA-E RIDGING PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES ON SATURDAY...AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THEN DROPS IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON
JUST HOW DEEP/COLD THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE ON THE
MORE MELLOW SIDE (NOT AS COLD). EITHER WAY...COOL AIR LOOKS TO BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE RENEWED
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS (MORE ON THAT MUCH LATER).

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELY WARMER MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS A TOUGH CALL AS IT WILL BE VERY WARM ALOFT BUT
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING TOO
CRAZY). HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE COOLER UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A TAD MILDER WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S EXPECTED. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE STILL MILD LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT/ THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE CHILLY MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING SOME FROST).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT...SHOULD IMPROVE
TOWARD MIDDAY AT PLN/TVC/MBL BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT APN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY...WILL NEED TO
CHECK ON RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION ON LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE IF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MAINTAINED THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...AJS
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AJS
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181312
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
912 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM DRAWING DOWN A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRACK
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL END UP AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MOISTURE WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK...THUS THE LOW RISK FOR RAIN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS
MY NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN...BUT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. AS A
RESULT SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 COULD STAY MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. LATEST
TRENDS FROM THE HIGH RES EURO SHOW STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AND DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES DOWN TO -6 DEG C. NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
SEVERE STORMS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING AND MENTION THE RISK
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
MILDER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS MONDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. DRY WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 912 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

EXTENDED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT LAN TO 15Z AS LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW AREA OF FOG APPROACHING. MEANWHILE...JXN HAS GONE VFR
AS THE FOG THERE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND MAY AFFECT BTL AND RMY. THE
LIFR AT GRR SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE COLD FRONT COMES IN BY
16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS BIG
AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND INTO
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STORMS PERSIST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES...BUT CONSIDERABLE RISES ON AREA RIVERS IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 181312
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
912 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM DRAWING DOWN A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRACK
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL END UP AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MOISTURE WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK...THUS THE LOW RISK FOR RAIN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS
MY NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN...BUT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. AS A
RESULT SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 COULD STAY MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. LATEST
TRENDS FROM THE HIGH RES EURO SHOW STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AND DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES DOWN TO -6 DEG C. NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
SEVERE STORMS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING AND MENTION THE RISK
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
MILDER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS MONDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. DRY WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 912 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

EXTENDED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT LAN TO 15Z AS LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW AREA OF FOG APPROACHING. MEANWHILE...JXN HAS GONE VFR
AS THE FOG THERE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND MAY AFFECT BTL AND RMY. THE
LIFR AT GRR SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE COLD FRONT COMES IN BY
16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS BIG
AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND INTO
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STORMS PERSIST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES...BUT CONSIDERABLE RISES ON AREA RIVERS IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...OSTUNO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181251
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
851 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM DRAWING DOWN A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRACK
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL END UP AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MOISTURE WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK...THUS THE LOW RISK FOR RAIN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS
MY NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN...BUT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. AS A
RESULT SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 COULD STAY MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. LATEST
TRENDS FROM THE HIGH RES EURO SHOW STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AND DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES DOWN TO -6 DEG C. NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
SEVERE STORMS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING AND MENTION THE RISK
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
MILDER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS MONDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. DRY WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE AROUND THIS MORNING. PATCHY IFR
AND LIFR IS AFFECTING GRR AND JXN AT 14Z AND MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
LAN AS WELL AS BTL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS A COLD FRONT
COMES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MIXES OUT THE FOG...BUT ALSO BRINGS
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN BEH IND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS BIG
AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STORMS PERSIST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES...BUT CONSIDERABLE RISES ON AREA RIVERS IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 181251
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
851 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM DRAWING DOWN A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRACK
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL END UP AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MOISTURE WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK...THUS THE LOW RISK FOR RAIN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS
MY NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN...BUT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. AS A
RESULT SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 COULD STAY MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. LATEST
TRENDS FROM THE HIGH RES EURO SHOW STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AND DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES DOWN TO -6 DEG C. NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
SEVERE STORMS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING AND MENTION THE RISK
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
MILDER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS MONDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. DRY WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE AROUND THIS MORNING. PATCHY IFR
AND LIFR IS AFFECTING GRR AND JXN AT 14Z AND MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
LAN AS WELL AS BTL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS A COLD FRONT
COMES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MIXES OUT THE FOG...BUT ALSO BRINGS
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN BEH IND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS BIG
AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STORMS PERSIST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES...BUT CONSIDERABLE RISES ON AREA RIVERS IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...OSTUNO







000
FXUS63 KMQT 181133
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC INTO THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. THE SHALLOW INTRUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO SRN WI HAS SHARPENED A 925 MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MI AND
NRN WI. IN ADDITION...MOISTENING FROM THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR... WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT...HAS ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE
THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
6C...EXPECT MAX READINGS IN THE MID 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
AND WEST.

TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE INFLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING PCPN WILL REMAIN NW
OF THE CWA...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
LATE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON CHCS FOR SHRA FRI THRU SUN AS A SERIES
OF SHRTWVS IN A W-NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI. STRENGTHENING WAA AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER (MORE THAN 180 PCT OF NORMAL) OVER
THE FCST AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -4C BY FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSRA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND OVER THE E HALF FRI EVNG...WHEN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV
WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THOSE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLD COVER
WL HOLD DOWN SFC HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AIR. EXPECT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG
SW FLOW AND INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT.

SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS WILL PROPEL THE SFC LOW PRES TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FNT
THRU THE UPR LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AS DYNAMICS
WITH SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES FCST IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDER AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON SAT AND
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL
CWA COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
PEAK AS HI AS 16-17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE
REGION. THE RESULTING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS 2-4C BY LATE SUN. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT H85 TEMPS WL FALL ENOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF A LK
ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NGT WITH WSHFT TO
THE N GIVEN FAIRLY CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS OF 8-9C.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL FROM MON THRU WED. MON IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
HI SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND TUE THRU
WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

EXPECT MVFR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING AT SAW WHEN WIND
EASTERLY WINDS OFF OF THE LAND BRING CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW TODAY UNDER A DRY AIR MASS. AT KCMX...THE
MVFR CIG MAY LAST TOWARD NOON GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND
UPSLOPE ESE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT IWD...MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE
WAY TO CLEARING AS VEERING WINDS TO SE RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING STRENGTHEN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
A TROUGH MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE N AND
INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 181133
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC INTO THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. THE SHALLOW INTRUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO SRN WI HAS SHARPENED A 925 MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MI AND
NRN WI. IN ADDITION...MOISTENING FROM THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR... WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT...HAS ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE
THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
6C...EXPECT MAX READINGS IN THE MID 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
AND WEST.

TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE INFLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING PCPN WILL REMAIN NW
OF THE CWA...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
LATE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON CHCS FOR SHRA FRI THRU SUN AS A SERIES
OF SHRTWVS IN A W-NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI. STRENGTHENING WAA AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER (MORE THAN 180 PCT OF NORMAL) OVER
THE FCST AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -4C BY FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSRA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND OVER THE E HALF FRI EVNG...WHEN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV
WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THOSE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLD COVER
WL HOLD DOWN SFC HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AIR. EXPECT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG
SW FLOW AND INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT.

SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS WILL PROPEL THE SFC LOW PRES TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FNT
THRU THE UPR LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AS DYNAMICS
WITH SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES FCST IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDER AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON SAT AND
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL
CWA COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
PEAK AS HI AS 16-17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE
REGION. THE RESULTING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS 2-4C BY LATE SUN. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT H85 TEMPS WL FALL ENOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF A LK
ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NGT WITH WSHFT TO
THE N GIVEN FAIRLY CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS OF 8-9C.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL FROM MON THRU WED. MON IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
HI SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND TUE THRU
WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

EXPECT MVFR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING AT SAW WHEN WIND
EASTERLY WINDS OFF OF THE LAND BRING CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW TODAY UNDER A DRY AIR MASS. AT KCMX...THE
MVFR CIG MAY LAST TOWARD NOON GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND
UPSLOPE ESE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT IWD...MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE
WAY TO CLEARING AS VEERING WINDS TO SE RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING STRENGTHEN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
A TROUGH MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE N AND
INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181131
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
731 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM DRAWING DOWN A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRACK
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL END UP AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MOISTURE WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK...THUS THE LOW RISK FOR RAIN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS
MY NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN...BUT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. AS A
RESULT SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 COULD STAY MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. LATEST
TRENDS FROM THE HIGH RES EURO SHOW STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AND DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES DOWN TO -6 DEG C. NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
SEVERE STORMS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING AND MENTION THE RISK
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
MILDER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS MONDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. DRY WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PATCHES OF IFR HAD FORMED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MI SINCE
09Z. ONE WAS LOCATED OVER KY70...WHILE ANOTHER WAS AT KRMY. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE IFR WILL LARGELY MISS THE SOUTHWEST
MI TAF SITES. A LARGER MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS WAS SLIPPING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...AND THEY SHOULD MOVE IN BY 14Z FOR MANY OF THE TAF
SITES. THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. A RISK FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNS
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXIST THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY WAVES ONLY AROUND 2 FEET OFF OF
LUDINGTON...HOWEVER THEY WILL BUILD SOMEWHAT AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW
STRENGTHENS. CONSIDERING THERE WILL ALSO BE COLD AIR ADVECTION...A
RISK FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE LITTLE AND BIG
SABLE POINT REGION.

A MUCH GREATER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FRI NIGHT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STORMS PERSIST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES...BUT CONSIDERABLE RISES ON AREA RIVERS IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ848-849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KDTX 181121
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
721 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LOW STRATUS GRADUALLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS LARGELY IN MVFR...ALTHOUGH A
NARROW STRIP IFR WILL EXIST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.  THIS IFR MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT PTK YET THIS MORNING.  OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE POINTS
TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BEING COMMON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AT MBS/FNT.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR DTW...LOWER CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE TERMINAL VICINITY JUST
AS DIURNAL HEATING TAKES A STRONGER FOOTHOLD LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CEILINGS AT MVFR
LEVELS.  THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY...LIKELY IN LOWER VFR.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EMERGING LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXITS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.  STEADY
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
TUCKED BENEATH THE ATTENDANT INVERSION WILL LEAVE A BROAD CANOPY OF
LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU IN PLACE THROUGH THE HALF OF THE DAY FOR POINTS
NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE NOT
NEARLY AS SATURATED TOWARD THE SOUTH...WHERE DAYTIME MIXING WILL
TAKE A STRONGER FOOTHOLD EARLY ON.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
INSOLATION UNDER A HIGHER DEGREE OF SUN.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF A RATHER TIGHT 925 MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A LARGER DISTRIBUTION IN HIGHS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FRMO THE MID 60S NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER TO MID 50S IN THE THUMB.

MODEL 925/850 MB RH FIELDS AND SOUNDING DATA POINT FAVORABLY TOWARD
SEEING A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.  IT
DOES REMAIN PLAUSIBLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED STRATUS TO FILL IN
LATE TONIGHT UNDER STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK.  LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT.  LOWS FROM MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WESTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...HERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REMAIN DECIDEDLY SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BONE DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. TEXTBOOK DEEP COLUMN SUBSIDENCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SUN SPLASHED SKIES. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT
MUTED IN THE DRY AIRMASS...SQUASHED BY THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BENEFIT FROM INSOLATION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
FOR MANY AREAS.

MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PV ANOMALY AND CREST THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN ENERGY THAT WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODEL EVOLUTION HAS THIS LEAD JET ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN ENERGY PLOW...UNDERGOING A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO THE
HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS JET ENERGY FALLS
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE STRUCTURE FLASHES WAY
EASTWARD. THUS...THE MODELS DO SUPPORT SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE
MAKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO KICK OFF THE POPS. THE PROBLEM
IS AND IT IS A BIG PROBLEM IS OVERALL DEPTH AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE.
TO PUT IT BLUNTLY THERE ARE GOING TO BE MAJOR MOISTURE ISSUES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WHILE ANY GOMEX
FEED IS COMPLETELY NON EXISTENT. SO...THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE IS
WHAT THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL CARRY OVER FROM THE PACIFIC. INITIALLY
WITH THIS BREAKOFF ENERGY TO BEGIN THINGS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME HYDROMETEORS GIVEN
THE OUTSTANDING WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT...BUT DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT TEMPERS THINGS.

THE MAIN PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL JET SURGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH WILL CAUSE THE MAIN
SURGE OF THETA E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST CVA WILL LAG BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS...SO BEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT OR MAIN THETA E CONTENT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA.
GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN WITHOUT ANY EML PUSH OR GOMEX CONNECTION LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE PITIFUL. FOR NOW WILL BE LEAVING THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST WHILE KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SUNDAY DRIES OUT POSTFRONTALLY...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUD SHOULD PERSIST IN CAA REGIME. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

MARINE...

WINDS HAVE RESPONDED UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ROCKETED SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
COMMONPLACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME CALM TONIGHT WHILE
ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE LULL WILL BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW EPISODE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SAGINAW BAY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 181121
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
721 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LOW STRATUS GRADUALLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS LARGELY IN MVFR...ALTHOUGH A
NARROW STRIP IFR WILL EXIST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.  THIS IFR MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT PTK YET THIS MORNING.  OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE POINTS
TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BEING COMMON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AT MBS/FNT.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR DTW...LOWER CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE TERMINAL VICINITY JUST
AS DIURNAL HEATING TAKES A STRONGER FOOTHOLD LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CEILINGS AT MVFR
LEVELS.  THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY...LIKELY IN LOWER VFR.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EMERGING LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXITS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.  STEADY
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
TUCKED BENEATH THE ATTENDANT INVERSION WILL LEAVE A BROAD CANOPY OF
LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU IN PLACE THROUGH THE HALF OF THE DAY FOR POINTS
NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE NOT
NEARLY AS SATURATED TOWARD THE SOUTH...WHERE DAYTIME MIXING WILL
TAKE A STRONGER FOOTHOLD EARLY ON.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
INSOLATION UNDER A HIGHER DEGREE OF SUN.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF A RATHER TIGHT 925 MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A LARGER DISTRIBUTION IN HIGHS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FRMO THE MID 60S NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER TO MID 50S IN THE THUMB.

MODEL 925/850 MB RH FIELDS AND SOUNDING DATA POINT FAVORABLY TOWARD
SEEING A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.  IT
DOES REMAIN PLAUSIBLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED STRATUS TO FILL IN
LATE TONIGHT UNDER STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK.  LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT.  LOWS FROM MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WESTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...HERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REMAIN DECIDEDLY SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BONE DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. TEXTBOOK DEEP COLUMN SUBSIDENCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SUN SPLASHED SKIES. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT
MUTED IN THE DRY AIRMASS...SQUASHED BY THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BENEFIT FROM INSOLATION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
FOR MANY AREAS.

MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PV ANOMALY AND CREST THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN ENERGY THAT WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODEL EVOLUTION HAS THIS LEAD JET ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN ENERGY PLOW...UNDERGOING A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO THE
HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS JET ENERGY FALLS
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE STRUCTURE FLASHES WAY
EASTWARD. THUS...THE MODELS DO SUPPORT SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE
MAKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO KICK OFF THE POPS. THE PROBLEM
IS AND IT IS A BIG PROBLEM IS OVERALL DEPTH AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE.
TO PUT IT BLUNTLY THERE ARE GOING TO BE MAJOR MOISTURE ISSUES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WHILE ANY GOMEX
FEED IS COMPLETELY NON EXISTENT. SO...THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE IS
WHAT THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL CARRY OVER FROM THE PACIFIC. INITIALLY
WITH THIS BREAKOFF ENERGY TO BEGIN THINGS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME HYDROMETEORS GIVEN
THE OUTSTANDING WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT...BUT DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT TEMPERS THINGS.

THE MAIN PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL JET SURGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH WILL CAUSE THE MAIN
SURGE OF THETA E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST CVA WILL LAG BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS...SO BEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT OR MAIN THETA E CONTENT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA.
GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN WITHOUT ANY EML PUSH OR GOMEX CONNECTION LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE PITIFUL. FOR NOW WILL BE LEAVING THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST WHILE KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SUNDAY DRIES OUT POSTFRONTALLY...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUD SHOULD PERSIST IN CAA REGIME. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

MARINE...

WINDS HAVE RESPONDED UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ROCKETED SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
COMMONPLACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME CALM TONIGHT WHILE
ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE LULL WILL BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW EPISODE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SAGINAW BAY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 181121
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
721 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LOW STRATUS GRADUALLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS LARGELY IN MVFR...ALTHOUGH A
NARROW STRIP IFR WILL EXIST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.  THIS IFR MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT PTK YET THIS MORNING.  OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE POINTS
TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BEING COMMON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AT MBS/FNT.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR DTW...LOWER CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE TERMINAL VICINITY JUST
AS DIURNAL HEATING TAKES A STRONGER FOOTHOLD LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CEILINGS AT MVFR
LEVELS.  THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY...LIKELY IN LOWER VFR.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EMERGING LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXITS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.  STEADY
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
TUCKED BENEATH THE ATTENDANT INVERSION WILL LEAVE A BROAD CANOPY OF
LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU IN PLACE THROUGH THE HALF OF THE DAY FOR POINTS
NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE NOT
NEARLY AS SATURATED TOWARD THE SOUTH...WHERE DAYTIME MIXING WILL
TAKE A STRONGER FOOTHOLD EARLY ON.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
INSOLATION UNDER A HIGHER DEGREE OF SUN.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF A RATHER TIGHT 925 MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A LARGER DISTRIBUTION IN HIGHS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FRMO THE MID 60S NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER TO MID 50S IN THE THUMB.

MODEL 925/850 MB RH FIELDS AND SOUNDING DATA POINT FAVORABLY TOWARD
SEEING A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.  IT
DOES REMAIN PLAUSIBLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED STRATUS TO FILL IN
LATE TONIGHT UNDER STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK.  LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT.  LOWS FROM MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WESTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...HERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REMAIN DECIDEDLY SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BONE DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. TEXTBOOK DEEP COLUMN SUBSIDENCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SUN SPLASHED SKIES. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT
MUTED IN THE DRY AIRMASS...SQUASHED BY THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BENEFIT FROM INSOLATION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
FOR MANY AREAS.

MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PV ANOMALY AND CREST THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN ENERGY THAT WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODEL EVOLUTION HAS THIS LEAD JET ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN ENERGY PLOW...UNDERGOING A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO THE
HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS JET ENERGY FALLS
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE STRUCTURE FLASHES WAY
EASTWARD. THUS...THE MODELS DO SUPPORT SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE
MAKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO KICK OFF THE POPS. THE PROBLEM
IS AND IT IS A BIG PROBLEM IS OVERALL DEPTH AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE.
TO PUT IT BLUNTLY THERE ARE GOING TO BE MAJOR MOISTURE ISSUES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WHILE ANY GOMEX
FEED IS COMPLETELY NON EXISTENT. SO...THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE IS
WHAT THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL CARRY OVER FROM THE PACIFIC. INITIALLY
WITH THIS BREAKOFF ENERGY TO BEGIN THINGS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME HYDROMETEORS GIVEN
THE OUTSTANDING WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT...BUT DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT TEMPERS THINGS.

THE MAIN PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL JET SURGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH WILL CAUSE THE MAIN
SURGE OF THETA E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST CVA WILL LAG BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS...SO BEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT OR MAIN THETA E CONTENT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA.
GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN WITHOUT ANY EML PUSH OR GOMEX CONNECTION LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE PITIFUL. FOR NOW WILL BE LEAVING THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST WHILE KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SUNDAY DRIES OUT POSTFRONTALLY...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUD SHOULD PERSIST IN CAA REGIME. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

MARINE...

WINDS HAVE RESPONDED UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ROCKETED SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
COMMONPLACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME CALM TONIGHT WHILE
ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE LULL WILL BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW EPISODE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SAGINAW BAY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 181121
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
721 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LOW STRATUS GRADUALLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS LARGELY IN MVFR...ALTHOUGH A
NARROW STRIP IFR WILL EXIST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.  THIS IFR MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT PTK YET THIS MORNING.  OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE POINTS
TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BEING COMMON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AT MBS/FNT.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR DTW...LOWER CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE TERMINAL VICINITY JUST
AS DIURNAL HEATING TAKES A STRONGER FOOTHOLD LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CEILINGS AT MVFR
LEVELS.  THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY...LIKELY IN LOWER VFR.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EMERGING LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXITS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.  STEADY
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
TUCKED BENEATH THE ATTENDANT INVERSION WILL LEAVE A BROAD CANOPY OF
LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU IN PLACE THROUGH THE HALF OF THE DAY FOR POINTS
NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE NOT
NEARLY AS SATURATED TOWARD THE SOUTH...WHERE DAYTIME MIXING WILL
TAKE A STRONGER FOOTHOLD EARLY ON.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
INSOLATION UNDER A HIGHER DEGREE OF SUN.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF A RATHER TIGHT 925 MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A LARGER DISTRIBUTION IN HIGHS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FRMO THE MID 60S NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER TO MID 50S IN THE THUMB.

MODEL 925/850 MB RH FIELDS AND SOUNDING DATA POINT FAVORABLY TOWARD
SEEING A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.  IT
DOES REMAIN PLAUSIBLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED STRATUS TO FILL IN
LATE TONIGHT UNDER STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK.  LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT.  LOWS FROM MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WESTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...HERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REMAIN DECIDEDLY SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BONE DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. TEXTBOOK DEEP COLUMN SUBSIDENCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SUN SPLASHED SKIES. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT
MUTED IN THE DRY AIRMASS...SQUASHED BY THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BENEFIT FROM INSOLATION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
FOR MANY AREAS.

MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PV ANOMALY AND CREST THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN ENERGY THAT WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODEL EVOLUTION HAS THIS LEAD JET ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN ENERGY PLOW...UNDERGOING A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO THE
HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS JET ENERGY FALLS
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE STRUCTURE FLASHES WAY
EASTWARD. THUS...THE MODELS DO SUPPORT SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE
MAKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO KICK OFF THE POPS. THE PROBLEM
IS AND IT IS A BIG PROBLEM IS OVERALL DEPTH AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE.
TO PUT IT BLUNTLY THERE ARE GOING TO BE MAJOR MOISTURE ISSUES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WHILE ANY GOMEX
FEED IS COMPLETELY NON EXISTENT. SO...THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE IS
WHAT THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL CARRY OVER FROM THE PACIFIC. INITIALLY
WITH THIS BREAKOFF ENERGY TO BEGIN THINGS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME HYDROMETEORS GIVEN
THE OUTSTANDING WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT...BUT DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT TEMPERS THINGS.

THE MAIN PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL JET SURGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH WILL CAUSE THE MAIN
SURGE OF THETA E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST CVA WILL LAG BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS...SO BEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT OR MAIN THETA E CONTENT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA.
GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN WITHOUT ANY EML PUSH OR GOMEX CONNECTION LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE PITIFUL. FOR NOW WILL BE LEAVING THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST WHILE KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SUNDAY DRIES OUT POSTFRONTALLY...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUD SHOULD PERSIST IN CAA REGIME. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

MARINE...

WINDS HAVE RESPONDED UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ROCKETED SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
COMMONPLACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME CALM TONIGHT WHILE
ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE LULL WILL BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW EPISODE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SAGINAW BAY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KAPX 181056
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
656 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THEN PUSHES OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. SO AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAD TO ADD PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS SINCE WE`VE BEEN GETTING SOME BITS OF PRECIP
RECENTLY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HILLTOPS PROBABLY NOT
HURTING THE CAUSE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR NORTHERN LOWER TODAY/FROST POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  BENEATH THIS SURFACE HIGH...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT AND 00Z YPL 850MB TEMPERATURE WAS DOWN TO -4C.  SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC...AND THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SMALL
VORTICITY CENTER CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
POCKET OF DRY AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR PREVENTING THIS
FEATURE FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT.  LOW STRATUS WAS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOME THINNING
OF CLOUD COVER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  PROBABLY SOME LAKE MICHIGAN/
HURON COMPONENT TO CLOUD COVER SETTING UP WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 4-6C AND WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 16C ON LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 12-14C NORTHERN LAKE HURON.

COLD FRONT WILLS SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WHILE CENTRAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS TODAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND
RESULTANT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN MORE PERSISTENT EARLY THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE CLEARING IS KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR OF THE ST. MARY`S RIVER.  BUT THIS ISN`T BODING WELL FOR
FROST POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SKIES TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WILL
PROBABLY CAN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WITH
08Z FORECAST ISSUANCE.  BELOW THE BRIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOUR
ON THE PROSPECTS FOR MUCH SUN TO START THE DAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
BEING REINFORCED BY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE HURON.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MIX INTO A HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS DECK DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND PROBABLY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER NORTHWEST LOWER WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL OVER NORTHEAST LOWER PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-32.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY 50S/AROUND 60 WEST OF
THE M-37 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR-PARTLY
CLOUDY.  DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS (OR
FOG PATCHES) TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRONGER GRADIENT THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE A
LITTLE BREEZE POP UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO JUST
A COUPLE OF STICKING POINTS TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ON THE PLUS SIDE WE WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE EVENING GIVEN
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS
LONG AS THERE IS A LACK OF CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY
GOOD FROST THREAT FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS RAISES SOME QUESTIONS FOR EASTERN UPPER FROST
POSSIBILITIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST THREAT FOR
NORTHERN LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF AGAIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING THEN FROST POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE RENEWED RIDGING OUT WEST INDUCES MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS BY MID WEEK
(IN OTHER WORDS GET READY FOR A ROLLER COASTER RIDE). THIS SCENARIO
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND/OR HEAVY
RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE SAILS OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY BUT HOLDS ON WHAT LOOKS
LIKE LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY LEADING TO A
"WARMER" AND MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS OVER THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF WE
CAN MIX OUT...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEFINITELY EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE AS STRONG THETA-E RIDGING PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES ON SATURDAY...AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THEN DROPS IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON
JUST HOW DEEP/COLD THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE ON THE
MORE MELLOW SIDE (NOT AS COLD). EITHER WAY...COOL AIR LOOKS TO BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE RENEWED
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS (MORE ON THAT MUCH LATER).

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELY WARMER MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS A TOUGH CALL AS IT WILL BE VERY WARM ALOFT BUT
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING TOO
CRAZY). HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE COOLER UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A TAD MILDER WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S EXPECTED. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE STILL MILD LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT/ THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE CHILLY MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING SOME FROST).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT...SHOULD IMPROVE
TOWARD MIDDAY AT PLN/TVC/MBL BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT APN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY...WILL NEED TO
CHECK ON RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION ON LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE IF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MAINTAINED THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...AJS
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AJS
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 180907
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC INTO THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. THE SHALLOW INTRUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO SRN WI HAS SHARPENED A 925 MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MI AND
NRN WI. IN ADDITION...MOISTENING FROM THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR... WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT...HAS ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE
THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
6C...EXPECT MAX READINGS IN THE MID 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
AND WEST.

TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE INFLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING PCPN WILL REMAIN NW
OF THE CWA...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
LATE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON CHCS FOR SHRA FRI THRU SUN AS A SERIES
OF SHRTWVS IN A W-NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI. STRENGTHENING WAA AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER (MORE THAN 180 PCT OF NORMAL) OVER
THE FCST AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -4C BY FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSRA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND OVER THE E HALF FRI EVNG...WHEN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV
WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THOSE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLD COVER
WL HOLD DOWN SFC HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AIR. EXPECT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG
SW FLOW AND INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT.

SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS WILL PROPEL THE SFC LOW PRES TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FNT
THRU THE UPR LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AS DYNAMICS
WITH SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES FCST IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDER AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON SAT AND
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL
CWA COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
PEAK AS HI AS 16-17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE
REGION. THE RESULTING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS 2-4C BY LATE SUN. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT H85 TEMPS WL FALL ENOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF A LK
ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NGT WITH WSHFT TO
THE N GIVEN FAIRLY CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS OF 8-9C.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL FROM MON THRU WED. MON IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
HI SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND TUE THRU
WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY OFF
LAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW TODAY UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER
STILL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS MORE LIKELY
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID MORNING AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY AND
UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE
DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
A TROUGH MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE N AND
INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 180907
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC INTO THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. THE SHALLOW INTRUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO SRN WI HAS SHARPENED A 925 MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MI AND
NRN WI. IN ADDITION...MOISTENING FROM THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR... WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT...HAS ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE
THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
6C...EXPECT MAX READINGS IN THE MID 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
AND WEST.

TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE INFLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING PCPN WILL REMAIN NW
OF THE CWA...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
LATE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON CHCS FOR SHRA FRI THRU SUN AS A SERIES
OF SHRTWVS IN A W-NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI. STRENGTHENING WAA AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER (MORE THAN 180 PCT OF NORMAL) OVER
THE FCST AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -4C BY FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSRA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND OVER THE E HALF FRI EVNG...WHEN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV
WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THOSE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLD COVER
WL HOLD DOWN SFC HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AIR. EXPECT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG
SW FLOW AND INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT.

SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS WILL PROPEL THE SFC LOW PRES TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FNT
THRU THE UPR LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AS DYNAMICS
WITH SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES FCST IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDER AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON SAT AND
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL
CWA COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
PEAK AS HI AS 16-17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE
REGION. THE RESULTING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS 2-4C BY LATE SUN. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT H85 TEMPS WL FALL ENOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF A LK
ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NGT WITH WSHFT TO
THE N GIVEN FAIRLY CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS OF 8-9C.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL FROM MON THRU WED. MON IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
HI SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND TUE THRU
WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY OFF
LAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW TODAY UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER
STILL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS MORE LIKELY
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID MORNING AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY AND
UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE
DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
A TROUGH MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE N AND
INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 180900
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE KEWEENAW COUNTY IN FROST ADVY OVERNIGHT.
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS HAD CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE EVENING. IN
FACT...THE KEWEENAW HAS REALLY BEEN THE ONLY AREA TO SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COPPER HARBOR IS THE ONLY AVBL
OB IN KEWEENAW COUNTY...OBSERVATIONS JUST ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE IN
NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY SHOW TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
THUS...A FROST ADVY IS WARRANTED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS DROPPING SSW ACROSS THE LAKE...CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW PROCESS IN MANY AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...IT APPEARS CLEARING WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY AFTER THIS
LAST AREA OF CLOUDS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY END UP LINGERING LONGEST TO THE SW AND W OF
MARQUETTE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LAKE COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD
COVER. IN THE END...EVEN IF THERE ARE ONLY 2-3 HRS OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING TO OR BLO FREEZING
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES APPEAR ON
TRACK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON CHCS FOR SHRA FRI THRU SUN AS A SERIES
OF SHRTWVS IN A W-NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI. STRENGTHENING WAA AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER (MORE THAN 180 PCT OF NORMAL) OVER
THE FCST AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -4C BY FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSRA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND OVER THE E HALF FRI EVNG...WHEN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV
WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THOSE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLD COVER
WL HOLD DOWN SFC HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AIR. EXPECT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG
SW FLOW AND INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT.

SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS WILL PROPEL THE SFC LOW PRES TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FNT
THRU THE UPR LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AS DYNAMICS
WITH SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES FCST IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDER AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON SAT AND
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL
CWA COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
PEAK AS HI AS 16-17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE
REGION. THE RESULTING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS 2-4C BY LATE SUN. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT H85 TEMPS WL FALL ENOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF A LK
ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NGT WITH WSHFT TO
THE N GIVEN FAIRLY CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS OF 8-9C.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL FROM MON THRU WED. MON IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
HI SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND TUE THRU
WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY OFF
LAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW TODAY UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER
STILL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS MORE LIKELY
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID MORNING AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY AND
UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE
DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC






000
FXUS63 KMQT 180900
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE KEWEENAW COUNTY IN FROST ADVY OVERNIGHT.
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS HAD CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE EVENING. IN
FACT...THE KEWEENAW HAS REALLY BEEN THE ONLY AREA TO SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COPPER HARBOR IS THE ONLY AVBL
OB IN KEWEENAW COUNTY...OBSERVATIONS JUST ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE IN
NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY SHOW TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
THUS...A FROST ADVY IS WARRANTED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS DROPPING SSW ACROSS THE LAKE...CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW PROCESS IN MANY AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...IT APPEARS CLEARING WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY AFTER THIS
LAST AREA OF CLOUDS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY END UP LINGERING LONGEST TO THE SW AND W OF
MARQUETTE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LAKE COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD
COVER. IN THE END...EVEN IF THERE ARE ONLY 2-3 HRS OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING TO OR BLO FREEZING
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES APPEAR ON
TRACK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON CHCS FOR SHRA FRI THRU SUN AS A SERIES
OF SHRTWVS IN A W-NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI. STRENGTHENING WAA AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER (MORE THAN 180 PCT OF NORMAL) OVER
THE FCST AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -4C BY FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSRA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND OVER THE E HALF FRI EVNG...WHEN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV
WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THOSE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLD COVER
WL HOLD DOWN SFC HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AIR. EXPECT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG
SW FLOW AND INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT.

SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS WILL PROPEL THE SFC LOW PRES TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FNT
THRU THE UPR LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AS DYNAMICS
WITH SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES FCST IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDER AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON SAT AND
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL
CWA COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
PEAK AS HI AS 16-17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE
REGION. THE RESULTING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS 2-4C BY LATE SUN. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT H85 TEMPS WL FALL ENOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF A LK
ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NGT WITH WSHFT TO
THE N GIVEN FAIRLY CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS OF 8-9C.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL FROM MON THRU WED. MON IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
HI SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND TUE THRU
WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY OFF
LAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW TODAY UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER
STILL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS MORE LIKELY
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID MORNING AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY AND
UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE
DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC






000
FXUS63 KMQT 180900
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE KEWEENAW COUNTY IN FROST ADVY OVERNIGHT.
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS HAD CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE EVENING. IN
FACT...THE KEWEENAW HAS REALLY BEEN THE ONLY AREA TO SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COPPER HARBOR IS THE ONLY AVBL
OB IN KEWEENAW COUNTY...OBSERVATIONS JUST ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE IN
NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY SHOW TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
THUS...A FROST ADVY IS WARRANTED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS DROPPING SSW ACROSS THE LAKE...CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW PROCESS IN MANY AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...IT APPEARS CLEARING WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY AFTER THIS
LAST AREA OF CLOUDS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY END UP LINGERING LONGEST TO THE SW AND W OF
MARQUETTE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LAKE COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD
COVER. IN THE END...EVEN IF THERE ARE ONLY 2-3 HRS OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING TO OR BLO FREEZING
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES APPEAR ON
TRACK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON CHCS FOR SHRA FRI THRU SUN AS A SERIES
OF SHRTWVS IN A W-NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI. STRENGTHENING WAA AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER (MORE THAN 180 PCT OF NORMAL) OVER
THE FCST AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -4C BY FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSRA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND OVER THE E HALF FRI EVNG...WHEN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV
WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THOSE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLD COVER
WL HOLD DOWN SFC HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AIR. EXPECT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG
SW FLOW AND INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT.

SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS WILL PROPEL THE SFC LOW PRES TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FNT
THRU THE UPR LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AS DYNAMICS
WITH SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES FCST IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDER AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON SAT AND
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL
CWA COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
PEAK AS HI AS 16-17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE
REGION. THE RESULTING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS 2-4C BY LATE SUN. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT H85 TEMPS WL FALL ENOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF A LK
ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NGT WITH WSHFT TO
THE N GIVEN FAIRLY CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS OF 8-9C.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL FROM MON THRU WED. MON IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
HI SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND TUE THRU
WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY OFF
LAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW TODAY UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER
STILL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS MORE LIKELY
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID MORNING AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY AND
UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE
DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC






000
FXUS63 KMQT 180900
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE KEWEENAW COUNTY IN FROST ADVY OVERNIGHT.
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS HAD CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE EVENING. IN
FACT...THE KEWEENAW HAS REALLY BEEN THE ONLY AREA TO SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COPPER HARBOR IS THE ONLY AVBL
OB IN KEWEENAW COUNTY...OBSERVATIONS JUST ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE IN
NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY SHOW TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
THUS...A FROST ADVY IS WARRANTED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS DROPPING SSW ACROSS THE LAKE...CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW PROCESS IN MANY AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...IT APPEARS CLEARING WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY AFTER THIS
LAST AREA OF CLOUDS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY END UP LINGERING LONGEST TO THE SW AND W OF
MARQUETTE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LAKE COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD
COVER. IN THE END...EVEN IF THERE ARE ONLY 2-3 HRS OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING TO OR BLO FREEZING
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES APPEAR ON
TRACK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON CHCS FOR SHRA FRI THRU SUN AS A SERIES
OF SHRTWVS IN A W-NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI. STRENGTHENING WAA AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER (MORE THAN 180 PCT OF NORMAL) OVER
THE FCST AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -4C BY FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSRA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND OVER THE E HALF FRI EVNG...WHEN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV
WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THOSE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLD COVER
WL HOLD DOWN SFC HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AIR. EXPECT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG
SW FLOW AND INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT.

SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS WILL PROPEL THE SFC LOW PRES TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FNT
THRU THE UPR LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AS DYNAMICS
WITH SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES FCST IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDER AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON SAT AND
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL
CWA COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
PEAK AS HI AS 16-17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE
REGION. THE RESULTING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS 2-4C BY LATE SUN. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT H85 TEMPS WL FALL ENOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF A LK
ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NGT WITH WSHFT TO
THE N GIVEN FAIRLY CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS OF 8-9C.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL FROM MON THRU WED. MON IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
HI SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND TUE THRU
WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY OFF
LAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW TODAY UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER
STILL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS MORE LIKELY
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID MORNING AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY AND
UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE
DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC






000
FXUS63 KAPX 180819
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THEN PUSHES OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. SO AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR NORTHERN LOWER TODAY/FROST POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  BENEATH THIS SURFACE HIGH...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT AND 00Z YPL 850MB TEMPERATURE WAS DOWN TO -4C.  SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC...AND THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SMALL
VORTICITY CENTER CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
POCKET OF DRY AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR PREVENTING THIS
FEATURE FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT.  LOW STRATUS WAS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOME THINNING
OF CLOUD COVER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  PROBABLY SOME LAKE MICHIGAN/
HURON COMPONENT TO CLOUD COVER SETTING UP WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 4-6C AND WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 16C ON LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 12-14C NORTHERN LAKE HURON.

COLD FRONT WILLS SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WHILE CENTRAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS TODAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND
RESULTANT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN MORE PERSISTENT EARLY THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE CLEARING IS KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR OF THE ST. MARY`S RIVER.  BUT THIS ISN`T BODING WELL FOR
FROST POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SKIES TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WILL
PROBABLY CAN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WITH
08Z FORECAST ISSUANCE.  BELOW THE BRIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOUR
ON THE PROSPECTS FOR MUCH SUN TO START THE DAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
BEING REINFORCED BY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE HURON.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MIX INTO A HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS DECK DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND PROBABLY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER NORTHWEST LOWER WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL OVER NORTHEAST LOWER PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-32.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY 50S/AROUND 60 WEST OF
THE M-37 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR-PARTLY
CLOUDY.  DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS (OR
FOG PATCHES) TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRONGER GRADIENT THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE A
LITTLE BREEZE POP UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO JUST
A COUPLE OF STICKING POINTS TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ON THE PLUS SIDE WE WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE EVENING GIVEN
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS
LONG AS THERE IS A LACK OF CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY
GOOD FROST THREAT FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS RAISES SOME QUESTIONS FOR EASTERN UPPER FROST
POSSIBILITIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST THREAT FOR
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF AGAIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING THEN FROST POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE RENEWED RIDGING OUT WEST INDUCES MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS BY MID WEEK
(IN OTHER WORDS GET READY FOR A ROLLER COASTER RIDE). THIS SCENARIO
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND/OR HEAVY
RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE SAILS OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY BUT HOLDS ON WHAT LOOKS
LIKE LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY LEADING TO A
"WARMER" AND MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS OVER THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF WE
CAN MIX OUT...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEFINITELY EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE AS STRONG THETA-E RIDGING PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES ON SATURDAY...AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THEN DROPS IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON
JUST HOW DEEP/COLD THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE ON THE
MORE MELLOW SIDE (NOT AS COLD). EITHER WAY...COOL AIR LOOKS TO BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE RENEWED
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS (MORE ON THAT MUCH LATER).

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELY WARMER MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS A TOUGH CALL AS IT WILL BE VERY WARM ALOFT BUT
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING TOO
CRAZY). HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE COOLER UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A TAD MILDER WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S EXPECTED. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE STILL MILD LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT/ THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE CHILLY MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING SOME FROST).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MVFR PRODUCING STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTIONS INCREASE. WHILE DELAYED
SOME...DRYING SHOULD BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE HEADING INTO LATER
THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HELPING SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD DECK.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THERE-ON-AFTER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY...WILL NEED TO
CHECK ON RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION ON LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE IF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MAINTAINED THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJS
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 180819
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THEN PUSHES OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. SO AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR NORTHERN LOWER TODAY/FROST POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  BENEATH THIS SURFACE HIGH...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT AND 00Z YPL 850MB TEMPERATURE WAS DOWN TO -4C.  SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC...AND THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SMALL
VORTICITY CENTER CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
POCKET OF DRY AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR PREVENTING THIS
FEATURE FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT.  LOW STRATUS WAS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOME THINNING
OF CLOUD COVER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  PROBABLY SOME LAKE MICHIGAN/
HURON COMPONENT TO CLOUD COVER SETTING UP WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 4-6C AND WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 16C ON LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 12-14C NORTHERN LAKE HURON.

COLD FRONT WILLS SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WHILE CENTRAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS TODAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND
RESULTANT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN MORE PERSISTENT EARLY THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE CLEARING IS KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR OF THE ST. MARY`S RIVER.  BUT THIS ISN`T BODING WELL FOR
FROST POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SKIES TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WILL
PROBABLY CAN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WITH
08Z FORECAST ISSUANCE.  BELOW THE BRIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOUR
ON THE PROSPECTS FOR MUCH SUN TO START THE DAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
BEING REINFORCED BY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE HURON.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MIX INTO A HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS DECK DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND PROBABLY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER NORTHWEST LOWER WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL OVER NORTHEAST LOWER PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-32.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY 50S/AROUND 60 WEST OF
THE M-37 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR-PARTLY
CLOUDY.  DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS (OR
FOG PATCHES) TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRONGER GRADIENT THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE A
LITTLE BREEZE POP UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO JUST
A COUPLE OF STICKING POINTS TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ON THE PLUS SIDE WE WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE EVENING GIVEN
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS
LONG AS THERE IS A LACK OF CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY
GOOD FROST THREAT FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS RAISES SOME QUESTIONS FOR EASTERN UPPER FROST
POSSIBILITIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST THREAT FOR
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF AGAIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING THEN FROST POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE RENEWED RIDGING OUT WEST INDUCES MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS BY MID WEEK
(IN OTHER WORDS GET READY FOR A ROLLER COASTER RIDE). THIS SCENARIO
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND/OR HEAVY
RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE SAILS OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY BUT HOLDS ON WHAT LOOKS
LIKE LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY LEADING TO A
"WARMER" AND MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS OVER THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF WE
CAN MIX OUT...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEFINITELY EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE AS STRONG THETA-E RIDGING PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES ON SATURDAY...AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THEN DROPS IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON
JUST HOW DEEP/COLD THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE ON THE
MORE MELLOW SIDE (NOT AS COLD). EITHER WAY...COOL AIR LOOKS TO BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE RENEWED
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS (MORE ON THAT MUCH LATER).

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELY WARMER MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS A TOUGH CALL AS IT WILL BE VERY WARM ALOFT BUT
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING TOO
CRAZY). HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE COOLER UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A TAD MILDER WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S EXPECTED. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE STILL MILD LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT/ THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE CHILLY MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING SOME FROST).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MVFR PRODUCING STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTIONS INCREASE. WHILE DELAYED
SOME...DRYING SHOULD BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE HEADING INTO LATER
THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HELPING SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD DECK.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THERE-ON-AFTER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY...WILL NEED TO
CHECK ON RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION ON LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE IF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MAINTAINED THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJS
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 180819
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THEN PUSHES OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. SO AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR NORTHERN LOWER TODAY/FROST POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  BENEATH THIS SURFACE HIGH...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT AND 00Z YPL 850MB TEMPERATURE WAS DOWN TO -4C.  SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC...AND THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SMALL
VORTICITY CENTER CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
POCKET OF DRY AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR PREVENTING THIS
FEATURE FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT.  LOW STRATUS WAS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOME THINNING
OF CLOUD COVER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  PROBABLY SOME LAKE MICHIGAN/
HURON COMPONENT TO CLOUD COVER SETTING UP WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 4-6C AND WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 16C ON LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 12-14C NORTHERN LAKE HURON.

COLD FRONT WILLS SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WHILE CENTRAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS TODAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND
RESULTANT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN MORE PERSISTENT EARLY THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE CLEARING IS KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR OF THE ST. MARY`S RIVER.  BUT THIS ISN`T BODING WELL FOR
FROST POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SKIES TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WILL
PROBABLY CAN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WITH
08Z FORECAST ISSUANCE.  BELOW THE BRIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOUR
ON THE PROSPECTS FOR MUCH SUN TO START THE DAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
BEING REINFORCED BY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE HURON.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MIX INTO A HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS DECK DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND PROBABLY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER NORTHWEST LOWER WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL OVER NORTHEAST LOWER PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-32.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY 50S/AROUND 60 WEST OF
THE M-37 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR-PARTLY
CLOUDY.  DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS (OR
FOG PATCHES) TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRONGER GRADIENT THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE A
LITTLE BREEZE POP UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO JUST
A COUPLE OF STICKING POINTS TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ON THE PLUS SIDE WE WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE EVENING GIVEN
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS
LONG AS THERE IS A LACK OF CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY
GOOD FROST THREAT FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS RAISES SOME QUESTIONS FOR EASTERN UPPER FROST
POSSIBILITIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST THREAT FOR
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF AGAIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING THEN FROST POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE RENEWED RIDGING OUT WEST INDUCES MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS BY MID WEEK
(IN OTHER WORDS GET READY FOR A ROLLER COASTER RIDE). THIS SCENARIO
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND/OR HEAVY
RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE SAILS OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY BUT HOLDS ON WHAT LOOKS
LIKE LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY LEADING TO A
"WARMER" AND MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS OVER THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF WE
CAN MIX OUT...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEFINITELY EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE AS STRONG THETA-E RIDGING PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES ON SATURDAY...AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THEN DROPS IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON
JUST HOW DEEP/COLD THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE ON THE
MORE MELLOW SIDE (NOT AS COLD). EITHER WAY...COOL AIR LOOKS TO BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE RENEWED
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS (MORE ON THAT MUCH LATER).

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELY WARMER MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS A TOUGH CALL AS IT WILL BE VERY WARM ALOFT BUT
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING TOO
CRAZY). HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE COOLER UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A TAD MILDER WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S EXPECTED. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE STILL MILD LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT/ THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE CHILLY MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING SOME FROST).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MVFR PRODUCING STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTIONS INCREASE. WHILE DELAYED
SOME...DRYING SHOULD BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE HEADING INTO LATER
THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HELPING SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD DECK.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THERE-ON-AFTER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY...WILL NEED TO
CHECK ON RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION ON LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE IF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MAINTAINED THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJS
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 180819
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THEN PUSHES OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. SO AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR NORTHERN LOWER TODAY/FROST POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  BENEATH THIS SURFACE HIGH...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT AND 00Z YPL 850MB TEMPERATURE WAS DOWN TO -4C.  SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC...AND THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SMALL
VORTICITY CENTER CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
POCKET OF DRY AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR PREVENTING THIS
FEATURE FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT.  LOW STRATUS WAS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOME THINNING
OF CLOUD COVER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  PROBABLY SOME LAKE MICHIGAN/
HURON COMPONENT TO CLOUD COVER SETTING UP WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 4-6C AND WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 16C ON LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 12-14C NORTHERN LAKE HURON.

COLD FRONT WILLS SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WHILE CENTRAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS TODAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND
RESULTANT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN MORE PERSISTENT EARLY THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE CLEARING IS KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR OF THE ST. MARY`S RIVER.  BUT THIS ISN`T BODING WELL FOR
FROST POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SKIES TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WILL
PROBABLY CAN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WITH
08Z FORECAST ISSUANCE.  BELOW THE BRIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOUR
ON THE PROSPECTS FOR MUCH SUN TO START THE DAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
BEING REINFORCED BY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE HURON.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MIX INTO A HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS DECK DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND PROBABLY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER NORTHWEST LOWER WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL OVER NORTHEAST LOWER PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-32.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY 50S/AROUND 60 WEST OF
THE M-37 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR-PARTLY
CLOUDY.  DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS (OR
FOG PATCHES) TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRONGER GRADIENT THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE A
LITTLE BREEZE POP UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO JUST
A COUPLE OF STICKING POINTS TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ON THE PLUS SIDE WE WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE EVENING GIVEN
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS
LONG AS THERE IS A LACK OF CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY
GOOD FROST THREAT FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS RAISES SOME QUESTIONS FOR EASTERN UPPER FROST
POSSIBILITIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST THREAT FOR
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF AGAIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING THEN FROST POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE RENEWED RIDGING OUT WEST INDUCES MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS BY MID WEEK
(IN OTHER WORDS GET READY FOR A ROLLER COASTER RIDE). THIS SCENARIO
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND/OR HEAVY
RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE SAILS OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY BUT HOLDS ON WHAT LOOKS
LIKE LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY LEADING TO A
"WARMER" AND MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS OVER THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF WE
CAN MIX OUT...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEFINITELY EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE AS STRONG THETA-E RIDGING PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES ON SATURDAY...AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THEN DROPS IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON
JUST HOW DEEP/COLD THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE ON THE
MORE MELLOW SIDE (NOT AS COLD). EITHER WAY...COOL AIR LOOKS TO BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE RENEWED
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS (MORE ON THAT MUCH LATER).

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELY WARMER MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS A TOUGH CALL AS IT WILL BE VERY WARM ALOFT BUT
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING TOO
CRAZY). HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE COOLER UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A TAD MILDER WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S EXPECTED. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE STILL MILD LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT/ THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE CHILLY MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCING SOME FROST).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MVFR PRODUCING STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTIONS INCREASE. WHILE DELAYED
SOME...DRYING SHOULD BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE HEADING INTO LATER
THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HELPING SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD DECK.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THERE-ON-AFTER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY...WILL NEED TO
CHECK ON RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION ON LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE IF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MAINTAINED THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJS
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KDTX 180750
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EMERGING LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXITS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.  STEADY
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
TUCKED BENEATH THE ATTENDANT INVERSION WILL LEAVE A BROAD CANOPY OF
LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU IN PLACE THROUGH THE HALF OF THE DAY FOR POINTS
NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE NOT
NEARLY AS SATURATED TOWARD THE SOUTH...WHERE DAYTIME MIXING WILL
TAKE A STRONGER FOOTHOLD EARLY ON.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
INSOLATION UNDER A HIGHER DEGREE OF SUN.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF A RATHER TIGHT 925 MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A LARGER DISTRIBUTION IN HIGHS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FRMO THE MID 60S NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER TO MID 50S IN THE THUMB.

MODEL 925/850 MB RH FIELDS AND SOUNDING DATA POINT FAVORABLY TOWARD
SEEING A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.  IT
DOES REMAIN PLAUSIBLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED STRATUS TO FILL IN
LATE TONIGHT UNDER STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK.  LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT.  LOWS FROM MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WESTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...HERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REMAIN DECIDEDLY SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BONE DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. TEXTBOOK DEEP COLUMN SUBSIDENCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SUN SPLASHED SKIES. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT
MUTED IN THE DRY AIRMASS...SQUASHED BY THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BENEFIT FROM INSOLATION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
FOR MANY AREAS.

MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PV ANOMALY AND CREST THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN ENERGY THAT WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODEL EVOLUTION HAS THIS LEAD JET ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN ENERGY PLOW...UNDERGOING A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO THE
HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS JET ENERGY FALLS
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE STRUCTURE FLASHES WAY
EASTWARD. THUS...THE MODELS DO SUPPORT SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE
MAKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO KICK OFF THE POPS. THE PROBLEM
IS AND IT IS A BIG PROBLEM IS OVERALL DEPTH AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE.
TO PUT IT BLUNTLY THERE ARE GOING TO BE MAJOR MOISTURE ISSUES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WHILE ANY GOMEX
FEED IS COMPLETELY NON EXISTENT. SO...THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE IS
WHAT THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL CARRY OVER FROM THE PACIFIC. INITIALLY
WITH THIS BREAKOFF ENERGY TO BEGIN THINGS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME HYDROMETEORS GIVEN
THE OUTSTANDING WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT...BUT DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT TEMPERS THINGS.

THE MAIN PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL JET SURGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH WILL CAUSE THE MAIN
SURGE OF THETA E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST CVA WILL LAG BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS...SO BEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT OR MAIN THETA E CONTENT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA.
GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN WITHOUT ANY EML PUSH OR GOMEX CONNECTION LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE PITIFUL. FOR NOW WILL BE LEAVING THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST WHILE KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SUNDAY DRIES OUT POSTFRONTALLY...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUD SHOULD PERSIST IN CAA REGIME. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE RESPONDED UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ROCKETED SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
COMMONPLACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME CALM TONIGHT WHILE
ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE LULL WILL BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW EPISODE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SAGINAW BAY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1151 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS SE MI DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRICKLING SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING
DUCTED UNDER A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION COURTESY OF SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN LIGHT OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...
CLOUD BASES LOOK TO PRIMARILY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ADDED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING SHOULD SUSTAIN LOW
END MVFR CIGS FOR PTK/FNT/MBS. THE ADDED UPSLOPE MAY STILL RESULT
IN SOME IFR INTO PTK. CLOUD BASES SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY LIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER DIURNAL HEATING CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

FOR DTW...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DEEP
AROUND METRO DETROIT. THIS AND THE ADDED DOWNSLOPE INTO METRO UNDER
N-NE WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF LOW CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING GETS UNDERWAY AND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OFF LAKE HURON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 180750
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EMERGING LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXITS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.  STEADY
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
TUCKED BENEATH THE ATTENDANT INVERSION WILL LEAVE A BROAD CANOPY OF
LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU IN PLACE THROUGH THE HALF OF THE DAY FOR POINTS
NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE NOT
NEARLY AS SATURATED TOWARD THE SOUTH...WHERE DAYTIME MIXING WILL
TAKE A STRONGER FOOTHOLD EARLY ON.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
INSOLATION UNDER A HIGHER DEGREE OF SUN.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF A RATHER TIGHT 925 MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A LARGER DISTRIBUTION IN HIGHS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FRMO THE MID 60S NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER TO MID 50S IN THE THUMB.

MODEL 925/850 MB RH FIELDS AND SOUNDING DATA POINT FAVORABLY TOWARD
SEEING A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.  IT
DOES REMAIN PLAUSIBLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED STRATUS TO FILL IN
LATE TONIGHT UNDER STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK.  LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT.  LOWS FROM MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WESTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...HERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REMAIN DECIDEDLY SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BONE DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. TEXTBOOK DEEP COLUMN SUBSIDENCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SUN SPLASHED SKIES. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT
MUTED IN THE DRY AIRMASS...SQUASHED BY THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BENEFIT FROM INSOLATION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
FOR MANY AREAS.

MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PV ANOMALY AND CREST THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN ENERGY THAT WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODEL EVOLUTION HAS THIS LEAD JET ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN ENERGY PLOW...UNDERGOING A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO THE
HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS JET ENERGY FALLS
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE STRUCTURE FLASHES WAY
EASTWARD. THUS...THE MODELS DO SUPPORT SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE
MAKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO KICK OFF THE POPS. THE PROBLEM
IS AND IT IS A BIG PROBLEM IS OVERALL DEPTH AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE.
TO PUT IT BLUNTLY THERE ARE GOING TO BE MAJOR MOISTURE ISSUES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WHILE ANY GOMEX
FEED IS COMPLETELY NON EXISTENT. SO...THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE IS
WHAT THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL CARRY OVER FROM THE PACIFIC. INITIALLY
WITH THIS BREAKOFF ENERGY TO BEGIN THINGS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME HYDROMETEORS GIVEN
THE OUTSTANDING WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT...BUT DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT TEMPERS THINGS.

THE MAIN PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL JET SURGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH WILL CAUSE THE MAIN
SURGE OF THETA E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST CVA WILL LAG BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS...SO BEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT OR MAIN THETA E CONTENT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA.
GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN WITHOUT ANY EML PUSH OR GOMEX CONNECTION LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE PITIFUL. FOR NOW WILL BE LEAVING THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST WHILE KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SUNDAY DRIES OUT POSTFRONTALLY...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUD SHOULD PERSIST IN CAA REGIME. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE RESPONDED UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ROCKETED SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
COMMONPLACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME CALM TONIGHT WHILE
ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE LULL WILL BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW EPISODE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SAGINAW BAY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1151 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS SE MI DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRICKLING SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING
DUCTED UNDER A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION COURTESY OF SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN LIGHT OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...
CLOUD BASES LOOK TO PRIMARILY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ADDED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING SHOULD SUSTAIN LOW
END MVFR CIGS FOR PTK/FNT/MBS. THE ADDED UPSLOPE MAY STILL RESULT
IN SOME IFR INTO PTK. CLOUD BASES SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY LIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER DIURNAL HEATING CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

FOR DTW...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DEEP
AROUND METRO DETROIT. THIS AND THE ADDED DOWNSLOPE INTO METRO UNDER
N-NE WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF LOW CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING GETS UNDERWAY AND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OFF LAKE HURON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 180750
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EMERGING LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXITS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.  STEADY
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
TUCKED BENEATH THE ATTENDANT INVERSION WILL LEAVE A BROAD CANOPY OF
LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU IN PLACE THROUGH THE HALF OF THE DAY FOR POINTS
NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE NOT
NEARLY AS SATURATED TOWARD THE SOUTH...WHERE DAYTIME MIXING WILL
TAKE A STRONGER FOOTHOLD EARLY ON.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
INSOLATION UNDER A HIGHER DEGREE OF SUN.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF A RATHER TIGHT 925 MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A LARGER DISTRIBUTION IN HIGHS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FRMO THE MID 60S NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER TO MID 50S IN THE THUMB.

MODEL 925/850 MB RH FIELDS AND SOUNDING DATA POINT FAVORABLY TOWARD
SEEING A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.  IT
DOES REMAIN PLAUSIBLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED STRATUS TO FILL IN
LATE TONIGHT UNDER STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK.  LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT.  LOWS FROM MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WESTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...HERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REMAIN DECIDEDLY SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BONE DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. TEXTBOOK DEEP COLUMN SUBSIDENCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SUN SPLASHED SKIES. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT
MUTED IN THE DRY AIRMASS...SQUASHED BY THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BENEFIT FROM INSOLATION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
FOR MANY AREAS.

MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PV ANOMALY AND CREST THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN ENERGY THAT WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODEL EVOLUTION HAS THIS LEAD JET ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN ENERGY PLOW...UNDERGOING A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO THE
HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS JET ENERGY FALLS
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE STRUCTURE FLASHES WAY
EASTWARD. THUS...THE MODELS DO SUPPORT SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE
MAKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO KICK OFF THE POPS. THE PROBLEM
IS AND IT IS A BIG PROBLEM IS OVERALL DEPTH AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE.
TO PUT IT BLUNTLY THERE ARE GOING TO BE MAJOR MOISTURE ISSUES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WHILE ANY GOMEX
FEED IS COMPLETELY NON EXISTENT. SO...THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE IS
WHAT THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL CARRY OVER FROM THE PACIFIC. INITIALLY
WITH THIS BREAKOFF ENERGY TO BEGIN THINGS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME HYDROMETEORS GIVEN
THE OUTSTANDING WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT...BUT DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT TEMPERS THINGS.

THE MAIN PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL JET SURGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH WILL CAUSE THE MAIN
SURGE OF THETA E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST CVA WILL LAG BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS...SO BEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT OR MAIN THETA E CONTENT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA.
GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN WITHOUT ANY EML PUSH OR GOMEX CONNECTION LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE PITIFUL. FOR NOW WILL BE LEAVING THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST WHILE KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SUNDAY DRIES OUT POSTFRONTALLY...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUD SHOULD PERSIST IN CAA REGIME. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE RESPONDED UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ROCKETED SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
COMMONPLACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME CALM TONIGHT WHILE
ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE LULL WILL BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW EPISODE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SAGINAW BAY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1151 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS SE MI DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRICKLING SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING
DUCTED UNDER A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION COURTESY OF SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN LIGHT OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...
CLOUD BASES LOOK TO PRIMARILY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ADDED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING SHOULD SUSTAIN LOW
END MVFR CIGS FOR PTK/FNT/MBS. THE ADDED UPSLOPE MAY STILL RESULT
IN SOME IFR INTO PTK. CLOUD BASES SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY LIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER DIURNAL HEATING CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

FOR DTW...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DEEP
AROUND METRO DETROIT. THIS AND THE ADDED DOWNSLOPE INTO METRO UNDER
N-NE WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF LOW CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING GETS UNDERWAY AND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OFF LAKE HURON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 180750
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EMERGING LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXITS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.  STEADY
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
TUCKED BENEATH THE ATTENDANT INVERSION WILL LEAVE A BROAD CANOPY OF
LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU IN PLACE THROUGH THE HALF OF THE DAY FOR POINTS
NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE NOT
NEARLY AS SATURATED TOWARD THE SOUTH...WHERE DAYTIME MIXING WILL
TAKE A STRONGER FOOTHOLD EARLY ON.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
INSOLATION UNDER A HIGHER DEGREE OF SUN.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF A RATHER TIGHT 925 MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A LARGER DISTRIBUTION IN HIGHS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FRMO THE MID 60S NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER TO MID 50S IN THE THUMB.

MODEL 925/850 MB RH FIELDS AND SOUNDING DATA POINT FAVORABLY TOWARD
SEEING A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.  IT
DOES REMAIN PLAUSIBLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED STRATUS TO FILL IN
LATE TONIGHT UNDER STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK.  LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT.  LOWS FROM MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WESTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...HERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REMAIN DECIDEDLY SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BONE DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. TEXTBOOK DEEP COLUMN SUBSIDENCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SUN SPLASHED SKIES. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT
MUTED IN THE DRY AIRMASS...SQUASHED BY THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BENEFIT FROM INSOLATION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
FOR MANY AREAS.

MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PV ANOMALY AND CREST THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN ENERGY THAT WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODEL EVOLUTION HAS THIS LEAD JET ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN ENERGY PLOW...UNDERGOING A DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO THE
HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS JET ENERGY FALLS
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE STRUCTURE FLASHES WAY
EASTWARD. THUS...THE MODELS DO SUPPORT SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE
MAKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO KICK OFF THE POPS. THE PROBLEM
IS AND IT IS A BIG PROBLEM IS OVERALL DEPTH AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE.
TO PUT IT BLUNTLY THERE ARE GOING TO BE MAJOR MOISTURE ISSUES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WHILE ANY GOMEX
FEED IS COMPLETELY NON EXISTENT. SO...THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE IS
WHAT THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL CARRY OVER FROM THE PACIFIC. INITIALLY
WITH THIS BREAKOFF ENERGY TO BEGIN THINGS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME HYDROMETEORS GIVEN
THE OUTSTANDING WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT...BUT DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT TEMPERS THINGS.

THE MAIN PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL JET SURGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH WILL CAUSE THE MAIN
SURGE OF THETA E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST CVA WILL LAG BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS...SO BEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT OR MAIN THETA E CONTENT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA.
GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN WITHOUT ANY EML PUSH OR GOMEX CONNECTION LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE PITIFUL. FOR NOW WILL BE LEAVING THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST WHILE KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SUNDAY DRIES OUT POSTFRONTALLY...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUD SHOULD PERSIST IN CAA REGIME. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE RESPONDED UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ROCKETED SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
COMMONPLACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME CALM TONIGHT WHILE
ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE LULL WILL BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW EPISODE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SAGINAW BAY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1151 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS SE MI DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRICKLING SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING
DUCTED UNDER A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION COURTESY OF SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN LIGHT OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...
CLOUD BASES LOOK TO PRIMARILY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ADDED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING SHOULD SUSTAIN LOW
END MVFR CIGS FOR PTK/FNT/MBS. THE ADDED UPSLOPE MAY STILL RESULT
IN SOME IFR INTO PTK. CLOUD BASES SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY LIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER DIURNAL HEATING CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

FOR DTW...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DEEP
AROUND METRO DETROIT. THIS AND THE ADDED DOWNSLOPE INTO METRO UNDER
N-NE WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF LOW CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING GETS UNDERWAY AND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OFF LAKE HURON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 180729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM DRAWING DOWN A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRACK
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS IN FROM THE WEST.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL END UP AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MOISTURE WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK...THUS THE LOW RISK FOR RAIN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS
MY NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN...BUT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. AS A
RESULT SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 COULD STAY MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. LATEST
TRENDS FROM THE HIGH RES EURO SHOW STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AND DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES DOWN TO -6 DEG C. NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
SEVERE STORMS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING AND MENTION THE RISK
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
MILDER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS MONDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. DRY WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS
A BAND OF LOW CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AND BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS FROM AROUND
DAYBREAK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
MIX OUT BY MIDDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
TOWARD KLAN DUE TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE HURON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXIST THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY WAVES ONLY AROUND 2 FEET OFF OF
LUDINGTON...HOWEVER THEY WILL BUILD SOMEWHAT AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW
STRENGTHENS. CONSIDERING THERE WILL ALSO BE COLD AIR ADVECTION...A
RISK FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE LITTLE AND BIG
SABLE POINT REGION.

A MUCH GREATER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FRI NIGHT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STORMS PERSIST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES...BUT CONSIDERABLE RISES ON AREA RIVERS IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ848-849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 180525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE KEWEENAW COUNTY IN FROST ADVY OVERNIGHT.
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS HAD CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE EVENING. IN
FACT...THE KEWEENAW HAS REALLY BEEN THE ONLY AREA TO SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COPPER HARBOR IS THE ONLY AVBL
OB IN KEWEENAW COUNTY...OBSERVATIONS JUST ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE IN
NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY SHOW TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
THUS...A FROST ADVY IS WARRANTED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS DROPPING SSW ACROSS THE LAKE...CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW PROCESS IN MANY AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...IT APPEARS CLEARING WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY AFTER THIS
LAST AREA OF CLOUDS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY END UP LINGERING LONGEST TO THE SW AND W OF
MARQUETTE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LAKE COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD
COVER. IN THE END...EVEN IF THERE ARE ONLY 2-3 HRS OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING TO OR BLO FREEZING
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES APPEAR ON
TRACK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON POPS FOR
FRI THRU SAT AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NRN FLANK OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE SCENTRAL CONUS INTERACT WITH AN
INCRSGLY MOIST SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THU NGT...THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW...WITH H925
WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-45 KTS BY 12Z FRI ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHARP
PRES FALLS OVER NW ONTARIO...BTWN HI PRES MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND
AND A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AS WELL
AS INCRSG PWAT UP TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE W/INCRSG HIER CLDS OVER
SHARPENING DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE NW HALF IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AND WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE STRONGER.
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL...TEMPS MAY FALL MORE QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG WHEN SKIES WL BE MOCLR AND SFC WINDS STILL RATHER WEAK
UNDER RADIATION/WAD INVRN. BUT STRONGER SW FLOW DVLPG LATE SHOULD
MITIGATE A FURTHER TEMP DROP.

FRI/FRI NGT...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWVS STREAMING THRU THE GREAT LKS WITHIN A W-E
FLOW ALF AND INTERACTING WITH THE LLVL SW FLOW THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT UP TO ARND 1.5 INCH FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...THERE REMAIN SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS OF THE FCST. DESPITE THE INCRS IN
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND OVERALL INSTABILITY THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE SSI
AS LO AS -3C TO -4C AND INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TS LATE
FRI/FRI NGT WITH APRCH OF WARM FNT...BULK OF THE MODEL FCST SDNGS
SHOW AN INVRN BTWN H75-85 AND MID LVL DRYING AT TIMES THRU FRI NGT
THAT WOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL FRI AFTN AND THE E HALF
FRI EVNG...WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/ H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND
CNVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE SHARPER IN THOSE AREAS. BUT THERE
ARE ENUF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHRTWVS TRACKING THRU THE
AREA AS WELL AS IMPACT OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ON FRI TO CAST
DOUBT ON THIS CONSENSUS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCRSG CLD COVER WL HOLD
DOWN SFC HI TEMPS ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. EXPECT
RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT.

AS A STRONGER SHRTWV APRCHS SAT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/COLD FNT
SWING THRU THE UPR LKS...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST
SDNGS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE MID LVL INVRN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHC FOR THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF...ESPECIALLY IF THE
FASTER MODELS VERIFY AND SHOW SFC FNT SWEEPING THRU THE W TOO EARLY
IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON
SAT...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE SCENTRL MAY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AS HI AS 17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...
ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS/REINFORCING COLD FROPA DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF AND CAUSE A W SLOWLY VEERING
N CYC FLOW OVER THE AREA INDICATE THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS -2C ON SUN NGT. AS H85 TEMPS FALL...
THERE MAY BE A LK ENHANCED COMPONENT OF THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN
NGT WITH WSHFT TO THE N. BUT CHILLY LK WATERS...WITH BUOYS SHOWING
OPEN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 40S...MIGHT MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL. MON IS LIKELY TO BE
RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE HI SHIFTING
TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND THRU WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY OFF
LAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW TODAY UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER
STILL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS MORE LIKELY
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID MORNING AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY AND
UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE
DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001-003-005>007-012>014-085.

  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 180525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE KEWEENAW COUNTY IN FROST ADVY OVERNIGHT.
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS HAD CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE EVENING. IN
FACT...THE KEWEENAW HAS REALLY BEEN THE ONLY AREA TO SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COPPER HARBOR IS THE ONLY AVBL
OB IN KEWEENAW COUNTY...OBSERVATIONS JUST ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE IN
NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY SHOW TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
THUS...A FROST ADVY IS WARRANTED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS DROPPING SSW ACROSS THE LAKE...CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW PROCESS IN MANY AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...IT APPEARS CLEARING WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY AFTER THIS
LAST AREA OF CLOUDS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY END UP LINGERING LONGEST TO THE SW AND W OF
MARQUETTE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LAKE COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD
COVER. IN THE END...EVEN IF THERE ARE ONLY 2-3 HRS OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING TO OR BLO FREEZING
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES APPEAR ON
TRACK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON POPS FOR
FRI THRU SAT AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NRN FLANK OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE SCENTRAL CONUS INTERACT WITH AN
INCRSGLY MOIST SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THU NGT...THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW...WITH H925
WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-45 KTS BY 12Z FRI ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHARP
PRES FALLS OVER NW ONTARIO...BTWN HI PRES MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND
AND A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AS WELL
AS INCRSG PWAT UP TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE W/INCRSG HIER CLDS OVER
SHARPENING DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE NW HALF IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AND WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE STRONGER.
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL...TEMPS MAY FALL MORE QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG WHEN SKIES WL BE MOCLR AND SFC WINDS STILL RATHER WEAK
UNDER RADIATION/WAD INVRN. BUT STRONGER SW FLOW DVLPG LATE SHOULD
MITIGATE A FURTHER TEMP DROP.

FRI/FRI NGT...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWVS STREAMING THRU THE GREAT LKS WITHIN A W-E
FLOW ALF AND INTERACTING WITH THE LLVL SW FLOW THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT UP TO ARND 1.5 INCH FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...THERE REMAIN SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS OF THE FCST. DESPITE THE INCRS IN
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND OVERALL INSTABILITY THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE SSI
AS LO AS -3C TO -4C AND INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TS LATE
FRI/FRI NGT WITH APRCH OF WARM FNT...BULK OF THE MODEL FCST SDNGS
SHOW AN INVRN BTWN H75-85 AND MID LVL DRYING AT TIMES THRU FRI NGT
THAT WOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL FRI AFTN AND THE E HALF
FRI EVNG...WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/ H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND
CNVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE SHARPER IN THOSE AREAS. BUT THERE
ARE ENUF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHRTWVS TRACKING THRU THE
AREA AS WELL AS IMPACT OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ON FRI TO CAST
DOUBT ON THIS CONSENSUS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCRSG CLD COVER WL HOLD
DOWN SFC HI TEMPS ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. EXPECT
RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT.

AS A STRONGER SHRTWV APRCHS SAT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/COLD FNT
SWING THRU THE UPR LKS...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST
SDNGS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE MID LVL INVRN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHC FOR THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF...ESPECIALLY IF THE
FASTER MODELS VERIFY AND SHOW SFC FNT SWEEPING THRU THE W TOO EARLY
IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON
SAT...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE SCENTRL MAY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AS HI AS 17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...
ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS/REINFORCING COLD FROPA DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF AND CAUSE A W SLOWLY VEERING
N CYC FLOW OVER THE AREA INDICATE THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS -2C ON SUN NGT. AS H85 TEMPS FALL...
THERE MAY BE A LK ENHANCED COMPONENT OF THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN
NGT WITH WSHFT TO THE N. BUT CHILLY LK WATERS...WITH BUOYS SHOWING
OPEN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 40S...MIGHT MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL. MON IS LIKELY TO BE
RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE HI SHIFTING
TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND THRU WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY OFF
LAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW TODAY UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER
STILL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS MORE LIKELY
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID MORNING AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY AND
UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE
DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001-003-005>007-012>014-085.

  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 180525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE KEWEENAW COUNTY IN FROST ADVY OVERNIGHT.
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS HAD CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE EVENING. IN
FACT...THE KEWEENAW HAS REALLY BEEN THE ONLY AREA TO SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COPPER HARBOR IS THE ONLY AVBL
OB IN KEWEENAW COUNTY...OBSERVATIONS JUST ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE IN
NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY SHOW TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
THUS...A FROST ADVY IS WARRANTED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS DROPPING SSW ACROSS THE LAKE...CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW PROCESS IN MANY AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...IT APPEARS CLEARING WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY AFTER THIS
LAST AREA OF CLOUDS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY END UP LINGERING LONGEST TO THE SW AND W OF
MARQUETTE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LAKE COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD
COVER. IN THE END...EVEN IF THERE ARE ONLY 2-3 HRS OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING TO OR BLO FREEZING
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES APPEAR ON
TRACK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON POPS FOR
FRI THRU SAT AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NRN FLANK OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE SCENTRAL CONUS INTERACT WITH AN
INCRSGLY MOIST SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THU NGT...THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW...WITH H925
WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-45 KTS BY 12Z FRI ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHARP
PRES FALLS OVER NW ONTARIO...BTWN HI PRES MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND
AND A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AS WELL
AS INCRSG PWAT UP TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE W/INCRSG HIER CLDS OVER
SHARPENING DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE NW HALF IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AND WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE STRONGER.
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL...TEMPS MAY FALL MORE QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG WHEN SKIES WL BE MOCLR AND SFC WINDS STILL RATHER WEAK
UNDER RADIATION/WAD INVRN. BUT STRONGER SW FLOW DVLPG LATE SHOULD
MITIGATE A FURTHER TEMP DROP.

FRI/FRI NGT...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWVS STREAMING THRU THE GREAT LKS WITHIN A W-E
FLOW ALF AND INTERACTING WITH THE LLVL SW FLOW THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT UP TO ARND 1.5 INCH FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...THERE REMAIN SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS OF THE FCST. DESPITE THE INCRS IN
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND OVERALL INSTABILITY THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE SSI
AS LO AS -3C TO -4C AND INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TS LATE
FRI/FRI NGT WITH APRCH OF WARM FNT...BULK OF THE MODEL FCST SDNGS
SHOW AN INVRN BTWN H75-85 AND MID LVL DRYING AT TIMES THRU FRI NGT
THAT WOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL FRI AFTN AND THE E HALF
FRI EVNG...WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/ H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND
CNVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE SHARPER IN THOSE AREAS. BUT THERE
ARE ENUF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHRTWVS TRACKING THRU THE
AREA AS WELL AS IMPACT OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ON FRI TO CAST
DOUBT ON THIS CONSENSUS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCRSG CLD COVER WL HOLD
DOWN SFC HI TEMPS ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. EXPECT
RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT.

AS A STRONGER SHRTWV APRCHS SAT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/COLD FNT
SWING THRU THE UPR LKS...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST
SDNGS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE MID LVL INVRN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHC FOR THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF...ESPECIALLY IF THE
FASTER MODELS VERIFY AND SHOW SFC FNT SWEEPING THRU THE W TOO EARLY
IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON
SAT...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE SCENTRL MAY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AS HI AS 17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...
ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS/REINFORCING COLD FROPA DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF AND CAUSE A W SLOWLY VEERING
N CYC FLOW OVER THE AREA INDICATE THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS -2C ON SUN NGT. AS H85 TEMPS FALL...
THERE MAY BE A LK ENHANCED COMPONENT OF THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN
NGT WITH WSHFT TO THE N. BUT CHILLY LK WATERS...WITH BUOYS SHOWING
OPEN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 40S...MIGHT MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL. MON IS LIKELY TO BE
RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE HI SHIFTING
TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND THRU WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY OFF
LAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW TODAY UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER
STILL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS MORE LIKELY
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID MORNING AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY AND
UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE
DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001-003-005>007-012>014-085.

  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 180525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE KEWEENAW COUNTY IN FROST ADVY OVERNIGHT.
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS HAD CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE EVENING. IN
FACT...THE KEWEENAW HAS REALLY BEEN THE ONLY AREA TO SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COPPER HARBOR IS THE ONLY AVBL
OB IN KEWEENAW COUNTY...OBSERVATIONS JUST ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE IN
NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY SHOW TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
THUS...A FROST ADVY IS WARRANTED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS DROPPING SSW ACROSS THE LAKE...CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW PROCESS IN MANY AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...IT APPEARS CLEARING WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY AFTER THIS
LAST AREA OF CLOUDS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY END UP LINGERING LONGEST TO THE SW AND W OF
MARQUETTE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LAKE COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD
COVER. IN THE END...EVEN IF THERE ARE ONLY 2-3 HRS OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING TO OR BLO FREEZING
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES APPEAR ON
TRACK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON POPS FOR
FRI THRU SAT AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NRN FLANK OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE SCENTRAL CONUS INTERACT WITH AN
INCRSGLY MOIST SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THU NGT...THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW...WITH H925
WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-45 KTS BY 12Z FRI ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHARP
PRES FALLS OVER NW ONTARIO...BTWN HI PRES MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND
AND A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AS WELL
AS INCRSG PWAT UP TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE W/INCRSG HIER CLDS OVER
SHARPENING DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE NW HALF IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AND WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE STRONGER.
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL...TEMPS MAY FALL MORE QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG WHEN SKIES WL BE MOCLR AND SFC WINDS STILL RATHER WEAK
UNDER RADIATION/WAD INVRN. BUT STRONGER SW FLOW DVLPG LATE SHOULD
MITIGATE A FURTHER TEMP DROP.

FRI/FRI NGT...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWVS STREAMING THRU THE GREAT LKS WITHIN A W-E
FLOW ALF AND INTERACTING WITH THE LLVL SW FLOW THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT UP TO ARND 1.5 INCH FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...THERE REMAIN SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS OF THE FCST. DESPITE THE INCRS IN
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND OVERALL INSTABILITY THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE SSI
AS LO AS -3C TO -4C AND INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TS LATE
FRI/FRI NGT WITH APRCH OF WARM FNT...BULK OF THE MODEL FCST SDNGS
SHOW AN INVRN BTWN H75-85 AND MID LVL DRYING AT TIMES THRU FRI NGT
THAT WOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL FRI AFTN AND THE E HALF
FRI EVNG...WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/ H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND
CNVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE SHARPER IN THOSE AREAS. BUT THERE
ARE ENUF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHRTWVS TRACKING THRU THE
AREA AS WELL AS IMPACT OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ON FRI TO CAST
DOUBT ON THIS CONSENSUS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCRSG CLD COVER WL HOLD
DOWN SFC HI TEMPS ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. EXPECT
RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT.

AS A STRONGER SHRTWV APRCHS SAT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/COLD FNT
SWING THRU THE UPR LKS...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST
SDNGS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE MID LVL INVRN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHC FOR THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF...ESPECIALLY IF THE
FASTER MODELS VERIFY AND SHOW SFC FNT SWEEPING THRU THE W TOO EARLY
IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON
SAT...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE SCENTRL MAY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AS HI AS 17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...
ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS/REINFORCING COLD FROPA DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF AND CAUSE A W SLOWLY VEERING
N CYC FLOW OVER THE AREA INDICATE THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS -2C ON SUN NGT. AS H85 TEMPS FALL...
THERE MAY BE A LK ENHANCED COMPONENT OF THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN
NGT WITH WSHFT TO THE N. BUT CHILLY LK WATERS...WITH BUOYS SHOWING
OPEN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 40S...MIGHT MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL. MON IS LIKELY TO BE
RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE HI SHIFTING
TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND THRU WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY OFF
LAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW TODAY UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER
STILL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS MORE LIKELY
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID MORNING AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY AND
UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE
DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001-003-005>007-012>014-085.

  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KDTX 180351
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS SE MI DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRICKLING SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING
DUCTED UNDER A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION COURTESY OF SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN LIGHT OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...
CLOUD BASES LOOK TO PRIMARILY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ADDED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING SHOULD SUSTAIN LOW
END MVFR CIGS FOR PTK/FNT/MBS. THE ADDED UPSLOPE MAY STILL RESULT
IN SOME IFR INTO PTK. CLOUD BASES SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY LIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER DIURNAL HEATING CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

FOR DTW...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DEEP
AROUND METRO DETROIT. THIS AND THE ADDED DOWNSLOPE INTO METRO UNDER
N-NE WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF LOW CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING GETS UNDERWAY AND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OFF LAKE HURON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HELPED SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LL
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WHICH STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN PARTS. EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MI DID MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO SAGINAW VALLEY AND FNT WHICH THEN EXPANDED THROUGH
THE THUMB. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO TAKE US INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE  EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRACKED THROUGH ONTARIO THIS MORNING LAYING OUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BROUGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF ONTARIO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
REACHING MBS AROUND 10Z AND DTW CLOSER TO 12Z. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NE FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OF LIGHT FOG AS
WELL BUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...LEANING MORE TOWARD LOW STRATUS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA IN
TERMS OF PRECIP AS HIRES MODELS SHOW PWATS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH THE MOISTURE DENSITY LOCATED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF THE COLUMN.
THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT...AND CAA...WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE VIEWS AND 500MB HEIGHT CONTOURS SHOW
INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG A JET STREAK OVER EASTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-RICH AREA CAN BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF TS ODILE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WESTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY IN A
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
RAISE PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH H85
THETA E TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL GOING FROM ABOUT 20C IN THE MORNING
TO LESS THAN 10C DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER NORTH OF I-69.

THE MAIN EDIT THIS CYCLE WAS TO LOWER MINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND LIKELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND FIELD THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND THE DOMAIN WITHIN 20 MILES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
LOOK FOR INLAND AREAS TO RADIATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S THOUGH.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE DOES NOT PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME VERY FAR PAST LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPORTING DRY AIR AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THE GEM
AND ECMWF DO PLOT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CWA. WENT LIKELY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WAVE PROGRESSION.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN FIRST IN THE THUMB REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING VEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AROUND THE THUMB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND WAVES. THE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL EASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MM/RK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 180351
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS SE MI DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRICKLING SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING
DUCTED UNDER A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION COURTESY OF SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN LIGHT OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...
CLOUD BASES LOOK TO PRIMARILY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ADDED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING SHOULD SUSTAIN LOW
END MVFR CIGS FOR PTK/FNT/MBS. THE ADDED UPSLOPE MAY STILL RESULT
IN SOME IFR INTO PTK. CLOUD BASES SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY LIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER DIURNAL HEATING CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

FOR DTW...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DEEP
AROUND METRO DETROIT. THIS AND THE ADDED DOWNSLOPE INTO METRO UNDER
N-NE WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF LOW CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING GETS UNDERWAY AND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OFF LAKE HURON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HELPED SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LL
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WHICH STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN PARTS. EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MI DID MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO SAGINAW VALLEY AND FNT WHICH THEN EXPANDED THROUGH
THE THUMB. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO TAKE US INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE  EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRACKED THROUGH ONTARIO THIS MORNING LAYING OUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BROUGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF ONTARIO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
REACHING MBS AROUND 10Z AND DTW CLOSER TO 12Z. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NE FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OF LIGHT FOG AS
WELL BUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...LEANING MORE TOWARD LOW STRATUS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA IN
TERMS OF PRECIP AS HIRES MODELS SHOW PWATS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH THE MOISTURE DENSITY LOCATED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF THE COLUMN.
THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT...AND CAA...WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE VIEWS AND 500MB HEIGHT CONTOURS SHOW
INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG A JET STREAK OVER EASTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-RICH AREA CAN BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF TS ODILE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WESTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY IN A
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
RAISE PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH H85
THETA E TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL GOING FROM ABOUT 20C IN THE MORNING
TO LESS THAN 10C DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER NORTH OF I-69.

THE MAIN EDIT THIS CYCLE WAS TO LOWER MINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND LIKELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND FIELD THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND THE DOMAIN WITHIN 20 MILES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
LOOK FOR INLAND AREAS TO RADIATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S THOUGH.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE DOES NOT PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME VERY FAR PAST LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPORTING DRY AIR AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THE GEM
AND ECMWF DO PLOT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CWA. WENT LIKELY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WAVE PROGRESSION.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN FIRST IN THE THUMB REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING VEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AROUND THE THUMB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND WAVES. THE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL EASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MM/RK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 180351
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS SE MI DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRICKLING SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING
DUCTED UNDER A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION COURTESY OF SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN LIGHT OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...
CLOUD BASES LOOK TO PRIMARILY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ADDED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING SHOULD SUSTAIN LOW
END MVFR CIGS FOR PTK/FNT/MBS. THE ADDED UPSLOPE MAY STILL RESULT
IN SOME IFR INTO PTK. CLOUD BASES SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY LIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER DIURNAL HEATING CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

FOR DTW...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DEEP
AROUND METRO DETROIT. THIS AND THE ADDED DOWNSLOPE INTO METRO UNDER
N-NE WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF LOW CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING GETS UNDERWAY AND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OFF LAKE HURON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HELPED SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LL
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WHICH STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN PARTS. EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MI DID MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO SAGINAW VALLEY AND FNT WHICH THEN EXPANDED THROUGH
THE THUMB. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO TAKE US INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE  EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRACKED THROUGH ONTARIO THIS MORNING LAYING OUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BROUGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF ONTARIO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
REACHING MBS AROUND 10Z AND DTW CLOSER TO 12Z. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NE FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OF LIGHT FOG AS
WELL BUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...LEANING MORE TOWARD LOW STRATUS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA IN
TERMS OF PRECIP AS HIRES MODELS SHOW PWATS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH THE MOISTURE DENSITY LOCATED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF THE COLUMN.
THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT...AND CAA...WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE VIEWS AND 500MB HEIGHT CONTOURS SHOW
INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG A JET STREAK OVER EASTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-RICH AREA CAN BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF TS ODILE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WESTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY IN A
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
RAISE PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH H85
THETA E TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL GOING FROM ABOUT 20C IN THE MORNING
TO LESS THAN 10C DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER NORTH OF I-69.

THE MAIN EDIT THIS CYCLE WAS TO LOWER MINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND LIKELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND FIELD THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND THE DOMAIN WITHIN 20 MILES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
LOOK FOR INLAND AREAS TO RADIATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S THOUGH.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE DOES NOT PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME VERY FAR PAST LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPORTING DRY AIR AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THE GEM
AND ECMWF DO PLOT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CWA. WENT LIKELY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WAVE PROGRESSION.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN FIRST IN THE THUMB REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING VEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AROUND THE THUMB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND WAVES. THE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL EASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MM/RK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 180351
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS SE MI DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRICKLING SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING
DUCTED UNDER A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION COURTESY OF SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN LIGHT OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...
CLOUD BASES LOOK TO PRIMARILY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ADDED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING SHOULD SUSTAIN LOW
END MVFR CIGS FOR PTK/FNT/MBS. THE ADDED UPSLOPE MAY STILL RESULT
IN SOME IFR INTO PTK. CLOUD BASES SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY LIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER DIURNAL HEATING CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

FOR DTW...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DEEP
AROUND METRO DETROIT. THIS AND THE ADDED DOWNSLOPE INTO METRO UNDER
N-NE WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF LOW CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING GETS UNDERWAY AND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OFF LAKE HURON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HELPED SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LL
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WHICH STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN PARTS. EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MI DID MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO SAGINAW VALLEY AND FNT WHICH THEN EXPANDED THROUGH
THE THUMB. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO TAKE US INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE  EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRACKED THROUGH ONTARIO THIS MORNING LAYING OUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BROUGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF ONTARIO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
REACHING MBS AROUND 10Z AND DTW CLOSER TO 12Z. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NE FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OF LIGHT FOG AS
WELL BUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...LEANING MORE TOWARD LOW STRATUS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA IN
TERMS OF PRECIP AS HIRES MODELS SHOW PWATS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH THE MOISTURE DENSITY LOCATED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF THE COLUMN.
THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT...AND CAA...WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE VIEWS AND 500MB HEIGHT CONTOURS SHOW
INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG A JET STREAK OVER EASTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-RICH AREA CAN BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF TS ODILE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WESTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY IN A
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
RAISE PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH H85
THETA E TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL GOING FROM ABOUT 20C IN THE MORNING
TO LESS THAN 10C DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER NORTH OF I-69.

THE MAIN EDIT THIS CYCLE WAS TO LOWER MINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND LIKELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND FIELD THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND THE DOMAIN WITHIN 20 MILES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
LOOK FOR INLAND AREAS TO RADIATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S THOUGH.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE DOES NOT PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME VERY FAR PAST LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPORTING DRY AIR AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THE GEM
AND ECMWF DO PLOT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CWA. WENT LIKELY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WAVE PROGRESSION.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN FIRST IN THE THUMB REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING VEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AROUND THE THUMB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND WAVES. THE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL EASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MM/RK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KAPX 180347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1147 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO END THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD TROUGHINESS AND CHILLY AIR REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. EVEN HAS SOME SNOW
REPORTED AT CHAPLEAU ONTARIO...ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF SAULT SAINT
MARIE. AT THE SFC...ILL-DEFINED EAST-WEST COLD FRONT IS NOW
STRETCHED THROUGH THE STRAITS INTO NRN WISCONSIN AND SAGGING
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF LOW-MID CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
FEW SPRINKLES SKIRTING CHIPPEWA COUNTY. BEHIND THAT...STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND (AS MENTIONED) SOME CHILLY AIR POISED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD
QUICKLY ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...PUSHING COLD FRONT AND SHALLOW
COLD AIR DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. ATTENDING NARROW BAND OF
LOW-MID CLOUD COVER WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND WILL ALSO SAG DOWN THROUGH
THE REGION. QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL WE REALIZE
OVERNIGHT.

EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN PROBABLY HAS THE BEST SHOT. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER ONTARIO TODAY...BUT MUCH OF WHICH IS HEATING
INDUCED AND SHOULD THIN OUT THIS EVENING. THAT... COMBINED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFF ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THINK EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
FAIRLY WELL WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S. WITH THAT IN
MIND...WILL ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR CHIP/MACK COUNTIES AND LINE UP
WITH THE ONGOING FROST ADVISORY FOR AREAS FURTHER WEST.

A BIT MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW-MID CLOUD COVER SAGGING DOWN INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE INCOMING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AND NE
FLOW DEVELOPING OFF LAKE HURON...SUSPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
STUCK ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. SO NOT AS MUCH OF A FROST THREAT DOWN THIS WAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...CHILLY NIGHTS GIVE WAY TO A WARMER AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:

 *FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NEXT MONDAY AND
  TUESDAY NIGHTS
 *SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WITH
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL

PATTERN SUMMARY/FORECAST: A STRENGTHENING PACIFIC JET IS EVIDENT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC...WHICH IS
DESTINED TO BREAK DOWN THE CURRENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM.  THIS WILL BRIEFLY LEAD TO A FLATTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM AS THIS JET ENERGY CRASHES INTO THE WEST COAST.
HOWEVER...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...SHARPENING TROUGHING OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL RESULT IN BUCKLING OF THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW WITH
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REDEVELOPING ACROSS NOAM BY THE
END OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...AS WE REACH
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC JET
IS AGAIN PROGGED TO GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST AS HEIGHTS LOWER OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.  THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE-TROUGH /WHICH WOULD BUILD HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF
NOAM/...BUT GIVEN THE HOW AMPLIFIED THE INITIAL RIDGE-TROUGH COUPLET
IS...WILL NOT FOLLOW TOO FAR DOWN THIS ROAD /SEE 00Z GFS WHICH
MAINTAINS THE EASTERN TROUGH MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF/.

PATTERN IMPLICATIONS: THIS SUGGESTS A TYPICAL SEPTEMBER
ROLLER-COASTER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH INITIALLY
COOL TEMPERATURES BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO
MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WE REACH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
AS THE EASTERN TROUGH RELOADS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  A RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS CERTAINLY IN STORE
TO START NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE TO END THE PERIOD
AS OVERHEAD TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEPART EAST.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE: MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IS QUITE STRONG THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH
THE GFS THEN SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN TROUGHING BEYOND THIS.
CANNOT FULLY DISCOUNT THIS GIVEN HOW PERSISTENT THE EASTERN
TROUGHING HAS BEEN THIS SUMMER AND WILL TREND TO A CONSENSUS AT THIS
RANGE WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CONFIDENCE.

MIDDLE RANGE /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/:

THURSDAY: QUIET...BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN ALLOWING FOR LIGHT/COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED DURING THE DAY.  TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST A VERY DRY
LLEVEL AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING
THE DAY.  GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...MIXING WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW WITH MIXED LAYER LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW H8.  THUS...T9S 3-6C SUGGEST HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
50S CWA-WIDE.  THIS PORTENDS A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BEING DEVELOPING LLEVEL RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT GETTING
GOING OVERHEAD.  EXPECT THIS TO KEEP AREAS WEST OF US131 IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
EAST OF THIS.  CONFIDENCE RATHER HIGH FOR FROST EAST OF THIS AREA
WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE AS WELL. DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW MAY ALSO
IMPACT TEMPS/FROST CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT FROST/FREEZE RISK IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.

FRIDAY: RETURN FLOW IN FULL FORCE FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY AND WITH
SOUTHERLY LLEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
RATHER SLOW.  THUS...WILL RESTRICT POPS TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
EAST OF THIS.

VERTICAL MIXING WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED DUE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT.  REGARDLESS...WITH T9 WARNING TO 10-13C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS FOLDS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH PWATS PUSHING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND FREEZING LEVELS RISING ABOVE
12KFT.  WHILE QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM ALLOWING UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO REACH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S.

SEVERE THREAT IS PRETTY MINIMAL OVERNIGHT GIVEN ONLY MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /~500 J/KG/.  HOWEVER...FLOW AT H5 OF 40-50KTS AT LEAST
PRESENTS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WHICH COULD
LOCALLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HAIL.

SATURDAY: WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD
FRONT...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY.  THIS OVERALL SOLUTION IS A WEAKER ONE THAN DISCUSSED YESTERDAY
WITH THIS TREND AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. THIS PLACES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN DIRECTLY WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PLUME TO START THE DAY...WITH THIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH WITH TIME.  HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME ONGOING
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN LOWER TO START THE
DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO KEEP SURFACE HEATING
LIMITED.  GIVEN A POSITION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE DAY...HOWEVER...SEE NO REASON WHY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPECIFIC EVOLUTION IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS RANGE.  FEEL THAT LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY TO ADD
SOME MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL.

WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT...WHICH
WILL PRIMARILY BE GOVERNED ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE DAY.  GIVEN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...FEEL THAT THE THREAT
IS LIMITED...BUT IT CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING.

UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE
DAY.

WITH AGREEMENT ON A WEAKER /AND ALSO FASTER/ SURFACE LOW...EXPECT A
QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE PULLED BACK ON
POPS /PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS A RESULT. EXPECT ANY THUNDER
THREAT TO END DURING THE EVENING...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SHRAS
UNDER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
DEVELOPING...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND LOWS WILL STILL BE RATHER
MILD...IN THE 50S.

LONG RANGE /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/:

SUNDAY-MONDAY: IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS TURNING TO LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL.  WE MAY SQUEAK OUT A RELATIVELY DECENT DAY
SUNDAY...AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN GENERALLY MILD DESPITE ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION.  CYCLONIC FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING LAKE SUPPORT /DUE
TO FALLING TEMPS ALOFT/ SUGGEST A FEW SHRAS...BUT HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO EVEN LOWER 70S OVER NORTHEAST LOWER APPEAR REASONABLE.  THE
WARMTH WILL BE TEMPERED BY WHAT WILL BE A RATHER STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WITH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY...TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH SOME
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN T8S FALLING TO 0C UNDER
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: QUIET WEATHER TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  GIVEN SOMEWHAT REDUCED FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
RANGE...WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES WHICH...DESPITE
MODERATION...WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE BOTH MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHTS GIVEN
COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MVFR PRODUCING STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTIONS INCREASE. WHILE DELAYED
SOME...DRYING SHOULD BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE HEADING INTO LATER
THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HELPING SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD DECK.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THERE-ON-AFTER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT...

SUMMARY: A STRONG AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND THEN SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.  WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TEMPORARILY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
REGION...BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON SUNDAY.

HEADLINES: WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG
MUCH OF THE COASTS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON.  THESE WILL END
THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFTS LIKELY NEEDED ON
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFTS WILL AGAIN
BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDER CHANCES BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ008-015.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...ARNOTT






000
FXUS63 KAPX 180347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1147 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO END THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD TROUGHINESS AND CHILLY AIR REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. EVEN HAS SOME SNOW
REPORTED AT CHAPLEAU ONTARIO...ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF SAULT SAINT
MARIE. AT THE SFC...ILL-DEFINED EAST-WEST COLD FRONT IS NOW
STRETCHED THROUGH THE STRAITS INTO NRN WISCONSIN AND SAGGING
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF LOW-MID CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
FEW SPRINKLES SKIRTING CHIPPEWA COUNTY. BEHIND THAT...STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND (AS MENTIONED) SOME CHILLY AIR POISED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD
QUICKLY ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...PUSHING COLD FRONT AND SHALLOW
COLD AIR DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. ATTENDING NARROW BAND OF
LOW-MID CLOUD COVER WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND WILL ALSO SAG DOWN THROUGH
THE REGION. QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL WE REALIZE
OVERNIGHT.

EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN PROBABLY HAS THE BEST SHOT. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER ONTARIO TODAY...BUT MUCH OF WHICH IS HEATING
INDUCED AND SHOULD THIN OUT THIS EVENING. THAT... COMBINED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFF ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THINK EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
FAIRLY WELL WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S. WITH THAT IN
MIND...WILL ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR CHIP/MACK COUNTIES AND LINE UP
WITH THE ONGOING FROST ADVISORY FOR AREAS FURTHER WEST.

A BIT MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW-MID CLOUD COVER SAGGING DOWN INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE INCOMING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AND NE
FLOW DEVELOPING OFF LAKE HURON...SUSPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
STUCK ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. SO NOT AS MUCH OF A FROST THREAT DOWN THIS WAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...CHILLY NIGHTS GIVE WAY TO A WARMER AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:

 *FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NEXT MONDAY AND
  TUESDAY NIGHTS
 *SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WITH
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL

PATTERN SUMMARY/FORECAST: A STRENGTHENING PACIFIC JET IS EVIDENT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC...WHICH IS
DESTINED TO BREAK DOWN THE CURRENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM.  THIS WILL BRIEFLY LEAD TO A FLATTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM AS THIS JET ENERGY CRASHES INTO THE WEST COAST.
HOWEVER...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...SHARPENING TROUGHING OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL RESULT IN BUCKLING OF THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW WITH
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REDEVELOPING ACROSS NOAM BY THE
END OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...AS WE REACH
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC JET
IS AGAIN PROGGED TO GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST AS HEIGHTS LOWER OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.  THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE-TROUGH /WHICH WOULD BUILD HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF
NOAM/...BUT GIVEN THE HOW AMPLIFIED THE INITIAL RIDGE-TROUGH COUPLET
IS...WILL NOT FOLLOW TOO FAR DOWN THIS ROAD /SEE 00Z GFS WHICH
MAINTAINS THE EASTERN TROUGH MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF/.

PATTERN IMPLICATIONS: THIS SUGGESTS A TYPICAL SEPTEMBER
ROLLER-COASTER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH INITIALLY
COOL TEMPERATURES BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO
MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WE REACH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
AS THE EASTERN TROUGH RELOADS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  A RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS CERTAINLY IN STORE
TO START NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE TO END THE PERIOD
AS OVERHEAD TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEPART EAST.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE: MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IS QUITE STRONG THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH
THE GFS THEN SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN TROUGHING BEYOND THIS.
CANNOT FULLY DISCOUNT THIS GIVEN HOW PERSISTENT THE EASTERN
TROUGHING HAS BEEN THIS SUMMER AND WILL TREND TO A CONSENSUS AT THIS
RANGE WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CONFIDENCE.

MIDDLE RANGE /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/:

THURSDAY: QUIET...BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN ALLOWING FOR LIGHT/COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED DURING THE DAY.  TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST A VERY DRY
LLEVEL AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING
THE DAY.  GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...MIXING WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW WITH MIXED LAYER LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW H8.  THUS...T9S 3-6C SUGGEST HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
50S CWA-WIDE.  THIS PORTENDS A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BEING DEVELOPING LLEVEL RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT GETTING
GOING OVERHEAD.  EXPECT THIS TO KEEP AREAS WEST OF US131 IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
EAST OF THIS.  CONFIDENCE RATHER HIGH FOR FROST EAST OF THIS AREA
WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE AS WELL. DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW MAY ALSO
IMPACT TEMPS/FROST CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT FROST/FREEZE RISK IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.

FRIDAY: RETURN FLOW IN FULL FORCE FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY AND WITH
SOUTHERLY LLEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
RATHER SLOW.  THUS...WILL RESTRICT POPS TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
EAST OF THIS.

VERTICAL MIXING WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED DUE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT.  REGARDLESS...WITH T9 WARNING TO 10-13C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS FOLDS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH PWATS PUSHING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND FREEZING LEVELS RISING ABOVE
12KFT.  WHILE QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM ALLOWING UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO REACH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S.

SEVERE THREAT IS PRETTY MINIMAL OVERNIGHT GIVEN ONLY MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /~500 J/KG/.  HOWEVER...FLOW AT H5 OF 40-50KTS AT LEAST
PRESENTS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WHICH COULD
LOCALLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HAIL.

SATURDAY: WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD
FRONT...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY.  THIS OVERALL SOLUTION IS A WEAKER ONE THAN DISCUSSED YESTERDAY
WITH THIS TREND AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. THIS PLACES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN DIRECTLY WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PLUME TO START THE DAY...WITH THIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH WITH TIME.  HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME ONGOING
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN LOWER TO START THE
DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO KEEP SURFACE HEATING
LIMITED.  GIVEN A POSITION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE DAY...HOWEVER...SEE NO REASON WHY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPECIFIC EVOLUTION IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS RANGE.  FEEL THAT LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY TO ADD
SOME MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL.

WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT...WHICH
WILL PRIMARILY BE GOVERNED ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE DAY.  GIVEN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...FEEL THAT THE THREAT
IS LIMITED...BUT IT CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING.

UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE
DAY.

WITH AGREEMENT ON A WEAKER /AND ALSO FASTER/ SURFACE LOW...EXPECT A
QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE PULLED BACK ON
POPS /PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS A RESULT. EXPECT ANY THUNDER
THREAT TO END DURING THE EVENING...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SHRAS
UNDER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
DEVELOPING...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND LOWS WILL STILL BE RATHER
MILD...IN THE 50S.

LONG RANGE /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/:

SUNDAY-MONDAY: IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS TURNING TO LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL.  WE MAY SQUEAK OUT A RELATIVELY DECENT DAY
SUNDAY...AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN GENERALLY MILD DESPITE ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION.  CYCLONIC FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING LAKE SUPPORT /DUE
TO FALLING TEMPS ALOFT/ SUGGEST A FEW SHRAS...BUT HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO EVEN LOWER 70S OVER NORTHEAST LOWER APPEAR REASONABLE.  THE
WARMTH WILL BE TEMPERED BY WHAT WILL BE A RATHER STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WITH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY...TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH SOME
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN T8S FALLING TO 0C UNDER
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: QUIET WEATHER TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  GIVEN SOMEWHAT REDUCED FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
RANGE...WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES WHICH...DESPITE
MODERATION...WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE BOTH MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHTS GIVEN
COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MVFR PRODUCING STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTIONS INCREASE. WHILE DELAYED
SOME...DRYING SHOULD BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE HEADING INTO LATER
THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HELPING SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD DECK.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THERE-ON-AFTER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT...

SUMMARY: A STRONG AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND THEN SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.  WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TEMPORARILY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
REGION...BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON SUNDAY.

HEADLINES: WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG
MUCH OF THE COASTS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON.  THESE WILL END
THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFTS LIKELY NEEDED ON
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFTS WILL AGAIN
BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDER CHANCES BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ008-015.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KGRR 180346
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE DETAIL TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVING IN (USED THE CONS-SHORT). THIS COMES CLOSE TO
MATCHING WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE 22Z RAP13 MODEL 950 TO 900 MB RH
WHICH IS MATCHING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOW. THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE
LOW CLOUDS SURGE SOUTH NEAR THE LAKE SHORE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
STATE WHILE MOVING MUCH SLOWER SOUTH INLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS REACH
OSCEOLA COUNTY AROUND 4 AM WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THEY WOULD REACH
MKG. THIS SUGGEST TO ME TEMPERATURES MAY WELL FALL INTO THE MID
30S INLAND OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. SO I LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURES AND ADDED PATCHY FROST IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
SFC COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OCCURRING. SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR HOWEVER HIGHS
MAY REACH 80 ON SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE IF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RATHER QUICK TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS LARGE/SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS
A BAND OF LOW CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AND BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS FROM AROUND
DAYBREAK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
MIX OUT BY MIDDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
TOWARD KLAN DUE TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE HURON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE POINTS REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NNE WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER
BRISK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL KICK UP 3-5 FOOT WAVES. WINDS
TURN MORE NE AND LIGHTEN UP LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVES SUBSIDE.

WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY ALSO RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...JK








000
FXUS63 KMQT 180233
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1033 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE KEWEENAW COUNTY IN FROST ADVY OVERNIGHT.
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS HAD CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE EVENING. IN
FACT...THE KEWEENAW HAS REALLY BEEN THE ONLY AREA TO SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COPPER HARBOR IS THE ONLY AVBL
OB IN KEWEENAW COUNTY...OBSERVATIONS JUST ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE IN
NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY SHOW TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
THUS...A FROST ADVY IS WARRANTED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS DROPPING SSW ACROSS THE LAKE...CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW PROCESS IN MANY AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...IT APPEARS CLEARING WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY AFTER THIS
LAST AREA OF CLOUDS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY END UP LINGERING LONGEST TO THE SW AND W OF
MARQUETTE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LAKE COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD
COVER. IN THE END...EVEN IF THERE ARE ONLY 2-3 HRS OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING TO OR BLO FREEZING
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES APPEAR ON
TRACK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON POPS FOR
FRI THRU SAT AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NRN FLANK OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE SCENTRAL CONUS INTERACT WITH AN
INCRSGLY MOIST SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THU NGT...THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW...WITH H925
WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-45 KTS BY 12Z FRI ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHARP
PRES FALLS OVER NW ONTARIO...BTWN HI PRES MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND
AND A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AS WELL
AS INCRSG PWAT UP TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE W/INCRSG HIER CLDS OVER
SHARPENING DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE NW HALF IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AND WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE STRONGER.
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL...TEMPS MAY FALL MORE QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG WHEN SKIES WL BE MOCLR AND SFC WINDS STILL RATHER WEAK
UNDER RADIATION/WAD INVRN. BUT STRONGER SW FLOW DVLPG LATE SHOULD
MITIGATE A FURTHER TEMP DROP.

FRI/FRI NGT...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWVS STREAMING THRU THE GREAT LKS WITHIN A W-E
FLOW ALF AND INTERACTING WITH THE LLVL SW FLOW THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT UP TO ARND 1.5 INCH FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...THERE REMAIN SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS OF THE FCST. DESPITE THE INCRS IN
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND OVERALL INSTABILITY THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE SSI
AS LO AS -3C TO -4C AND INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TS LATE
FRI/FRI NGT WITH APRCH OF WARM FNT...BULK OF THE MODEL FCST SDNGS
SHOW AN INVRN BTWN H75-85 AND MID LVL DRYING AT TIMES THRU FRI NGT
THAT WOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL FRI AFTN AND THE E HALF
FRI EVNG...WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/ H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND
CNVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE SHARPER IN THOSE AREAS. BUT THERE
ARE ENUF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHRTWVS TRACKING THRU THE
AREA AS WELL AS IMPACT OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ON FRI TO CAST
DOUBT ON THIS CONSENSUS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCRSG CLD COVER WL HOLD
DOWN SFC HI TEMPS ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. EXPECT
RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT.

AS A STRONGER SHRTWV APRCHS SAT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/COLD FNT
SWING THRU THE UPR LKS...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST
SDNGS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE MID LVL INVRN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHC FOR THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF...ESPECIALLY IF THE
FASTER MODELS VERIFY AND SHOW SFC FNT SWEEPING THRU THE W TOO EARLY
IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON
SAT...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE SCENTRL MAY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AS HI AS 17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...
ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS/REINFORCING COLD FROPA DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF AND CAUSE A W SLOWLY VEERING
N CYC FLOW OVER THE AREA INDICATE THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS -2C ON SUN NGT. AS H85 TEMPS FALL...
THERE MAY BE A LK ENHANCED COMPONENT OF THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN
NGT WITH WSHFT TO THE N. BUT CHILLY LK WATERS...WITH BUOYS SHOWING
OPEN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 40S...MIGHT MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL. MON IS LIKELY TO BE
RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE HI SHIFTING
TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND THRU WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED EARLIER
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY
OFF LAND. INITIAL IFR CIGS...POSSIBLY LIFR...SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR
MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATE TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW ON THU UNDER DRY AIR MASS.
AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT OCNL MVFR CIGS GIVEN CLOUDS STILL UPSTREAM. BETTER CHC OF A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WINDS VEER
MORE EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT
KIWD...OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-
     003-005>007-012>014-085.

  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-
     004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 180233
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1033 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE KEWEENAW COUNTY IN FROST ADVY OVERNIGHT.
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS HAD CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE EVENING. IN
FACT...THE KEWEENAW HAS REALLY BEEN THE ONLY AREA TO SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COPPER HARBOR IS THE ONLY AVBL
OB IN KEWEENAW COUNTY...OBSERVATIONS JUST ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE IN
NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY SHOW TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
THUS...A FROST ADVY IS WARRANTED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS DROPPING SSW ACROSS THE LAKE...CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW PROCESS IN MANY AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...IT APPEARS CLEARING WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY AFTER THIS
LAST AREA OF CLOUDS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY END UP LINGERING LONGEST TO THE SW AND W OF
MARQUETTE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LAKE COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD
COVER. IN THE END...EVEN IF THERE ARE ONLY 2-3 HRS OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING TO OR BLO FREEZING
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES APPEAR ON
TRACK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON POPS FOR
FRI THRU SAT AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NRN FLANK OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE SCENTRAL CONUS INTERACT WITH AN
INCRSGLY MOIST SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THU NGT...THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW...WITH H925
WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-45 KTS BY 12Z FRI ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHARP
PRES FALLS OVER NW ONTARIO...BTWN HI PRES MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND
AND A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AS WELL
AS INCRSG PWAT UP TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE W/INCRSG HIER CLDS OVER
SHARPENING DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE NW HALF IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AND WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE STRONGER.
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL...TEMPS MAY FALL MORE QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG WHEN SKIES WL BE MOCLR AND SFC WINDS STILL RATHER WEAK
UNDER RADIATION/WAD INVRN. BUT STRONGER SW FLOW DVLPG LATE SHOULD
MITIGATE A FURTHER TEMP DROP.

FRI/FRI NGT...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWVS STREAMING THRU THE GREAT LKS WITHIN A W-E
FLOW ALF AND INTERACTING WITH THE LLVL SW FLOW THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT UP TO ARND 1.5 INCH FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...THERE REMAIN SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS OF THE FCST. DESPITE THE INCRS IN
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND OVERALL INSTABILITY THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE SSI
AS LO AS -3C TO -4C AND INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TS LATE
FRI/FRI NGT WITH APRCH OF WARM FNT...BULK OF THE MODEL FCST SDNGS
SHOW AN INVRN BTWN H75-85 AND MID LVL DRYING AT TIMES THRU FRI NGT
THAT WOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL FRI AFTN AND THE E HALF
FRI EVNG...WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/ H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND
CNVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE SHARPER IN THOSE AREAS. BUT THERE
ARE ENUF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHRTWVS TRACKING THRU THE
AREA AS WELL AS IMPACT OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ON FRI TO CAST
DOUBT ON THIS CONSENSUS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCRSG CLD COVER WL HOLD
DOWN SFC HI TEMPS ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. EXPECT
RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT.

AS A STRONGER SHRTWV APRCHS SAT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/COLD FNT
SWING THRU THE UPR LKS...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST
SDNGS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE MID LVL INVRN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHC FOR THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF...ESPECIALLY IF THE
FASTER MODELS VERIFY AND SHOW SFC FNT SWEEPING THRU THE W TOO EARLY
IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON
SAT...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE SCENTRL MAY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AS HI AS 17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...
ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS/REINFORCING COLD FROPA DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF AND CAUSE A W SLOWLY VEERING
N CYC FLOW OVER THE AREA INDICATE THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS -2C ON SUN NGT. AS H85 TEMPS FALL...
THERE MAY BE A LK ENHANCED COMPONENT OF THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN
NGT WITH WSHFT TO THE N. BUT CHILLY LK WATERS...WITH BUOYS SHOWING
OPEN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 40S...MIGHT MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL. MON IS LIKELY TO BE
RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE HI SHIFTING
TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND THRU WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED EARLIER
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY
OFF LAND. INITIAL IFR CIGS...POSSIBLY LIFR...SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR
MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATE TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW ON THU UNDER DRY AIR MASS.
AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT OCNL MVFR CIGS GIVEN CLOUDS STILL UPSTREAM. BETTER CHC OF A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WINDS VEER
MORE EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT
KIWD...OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-
     003-005>007-012>014-085.

  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-
     004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC






000
FXUS63 KGRR 180003
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
803 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE DETAIL TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVING IN (USED THE CONS-SHORT). THIS COMES CLOSE TO
MATCHING WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE 22Z RAP13 MODEL 950 TO 900 MB RH
WHICH IS MATCHING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOW. THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE
LOW CLOUDS SURGE SOUTH NEAR THE LAKE SHORE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
STATE WHILE MOVING MUCH SLOWER SOUTH INLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS REACH
OSCEOLA COUNTY AROUND 4 AM WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THEY WOULD REACH
MKG. THIS SUGGEST TO ME TEMPERATURES MAY WELL FALL INTO THE MID
30S INLAND OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. SO I LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURES AND ADDED PATCHY FROST IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
SFC COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OCCURRING. SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR HOWEVER HIGHS
MAY REACH 80 ON SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE IF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RATHER QUICK TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS LARGE/SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

WE ARE WATCHING THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT. AT
23Z THE FRONT WAS NEAR THE BIG MAC BRIDGE. THERE IS A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THAT
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTH. THE SHORT STORY IS THAT I WOULD EXPECT
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH AT THE I-96 TAF SITES IN THE 10Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME (AS SUGGESTED BY OUR PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD). I ALSO
AGREE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT DURING THE MID DAY HOURS
RESULTING IN LARGELY CLEAR SKIES BY 21Z OR SO.

HOWEVER THERE IS GLITCH. THE GLITCH IS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP13 AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL SURGE
MORE QUICKLY SOUTH OVER BOTH LAKES THAN OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT THE NAM12 FORMS A MESO-LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...JUST WEST OF MKG AROUND 06Z THAT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT. IT DISSIPATES AS IT REACHES JUST OFF
SHORE OF CHICAGO BY 18Z. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF US-131 AND SOUTH OF I-96. AS SUGGESTED
BY OUR PREVIOUS AFD THE LAN TAF SITE HAS THE GREATEST RISK FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE AIR FLOW OFF SAGINAW BAY HELPING THE CAUSE. MKG
WOULD BE THE NEXT MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO GET THE LOW CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE THE AZO AND BTL TAF SITES ARE IN A LOCATION WHERE THE
MESO-LOW CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD
BE THE LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE ANY LOW CLOUD ISSUES THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT I KEPT THOSE TAF SITES LARGELY VFR ALL DAY (BRIEF MVFR F
AROUND SUNRISE AT AZO). JXN IS ON THE FENCE AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN
SO I KEPT THE IDEA FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF AND BROUGHT THE LOW
CLOUDS IN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE POINTS REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NNE WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER
BRISK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL KICK UP 3-5 FOOT WAVES. WINDS
TURN MORE NE AND LIGHTEN UP LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVES SUBSIDE.

WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY ALSO RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...JK






000
FXUS63 KGRR 180003
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
803 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE DETAIL TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVING IN (USED THE CONS-SHORT). THIS COMES CLOSE TO
MATCHING WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE 22Z RAP13 MODEL 950 TO 900 MB RH
WHICH IS MATCHING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOW. THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE
LOW CLOUDS SURGE SOUTH NEAR THE LAKE SHORE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
STATE WHILE MOVING MUCH SLOWER SOUTH INLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS REACH
OSCEOLA COUNTY AROUND 4 AM WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THEY WOULD REACH
MKG. THIS SUGGEST TO ME TEMPERATURES MAY WELL FALL INTO THE MID
30S INLAND OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. SO I LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURES AND ADDED PATCHY FROST IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
SFC COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OCCURRING. SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR HOWEVER HIGHS
MAY REACH 80 ON SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE IF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RATHER QUICK TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS LARGE/SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

WE ARE WATCHING THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT. AT
23Z THE FRONT WAS NEAR THE BIG MAC BRIDGE. THERE IS A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THAT
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTH. THE SHORT STORY IS THAT I WOULD EXPECT
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH AT THE I-96 TAF SITES IN THE 10Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME (AS SUGGESTED BY OUR PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD). I ALSO
AGREE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT DURING THE MID DAY HOURS
RESULTING IN LARGELY CLEAR SKIES BY 21Z OR SO.

HOWEVER THERE IS GLITCH. THE GLITCH IS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP13 AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL SURGE
MORE QUICKLY SOUTH OVER BOTH LAKES THAN OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT THE NAM12 FORMS A MESO-LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...JUST WEST OF MKG AROUND 06Z THAT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT. IT DISSIPATES AS IT REACHES JUST OFF
SHORE OF CHICAGO BY 18Z. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF US-131 AND SOUTH OF I-96. AS SUGGESTED
BY OUR PREVIOUS AFD THE LAN TAF SITE HAS THE GREATEST RISK FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE AIR FLOW OFF SAGINAW BAY HELPING THE CAUSE. MKG
WOULD BE THE NEXT MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO GET THE LOW CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE THE AZO AND BTL TAF SITES ARE IN A LOCATION WHERE THE
MESO-LOW CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD
BE THE LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE ANY LOW CLOUD ISSUES THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT I KEPT THOSE TAF SITES LARGELY VFR ALL DAY (BRIEF MVFR F
AROUND SUNRISE AT AZO). JXN IS ON THE FENCE AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN
SO I KEPT THE IDEA FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF AND BROUGHT THE LOW
CLOUDS IN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE POINTS REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NNE WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER
BRISK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL KICK UP 3-5 FOOT WAVES. WINDS
TURN MORE NE AND LIGHTEN UP LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVES SUBSIDE.

WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY ALSO RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...JK






000
FXUS63 KGRR 180003
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
803 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE DETAIL TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVING IN (USED THE CONS-SHORT). THIS COMES CLOSE TO
MATCHING WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE 22Z RAP13 MODEL 950 TO 900 MB RH
WHICH IS MATCHING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOW. THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE
LOW CLOUDS SURGE SOUTH NEAR THE LAKE SHORE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
STATE WHILE MOVING MUCH SLOWER SOUTH INLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS REACH
OSCEOLA COUNTY AROUND 4 AM WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THEY WOULD REACH
MKG. THIS SUGGEST TO ME TEMPERATURES MAY WELL FALL INTO THE MID
30S INLAND OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. SO I LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURES AND ADDED PATCHY FROST IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
SFC COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OCCURRING. SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR HOWEVER HIGHS
MAY REACH 80 ON SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE IF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RATHER QUICK TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS LARGE/SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

WE ARE WATCHING THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT. AT
23Z THE FRONT WAS NEAR THE BIG MAC BRIDGE. THERE IS A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THAT
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTH. THE SHORT STORY IS THAT I WOULD EXPECT
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH AT THE I-96 TAF SITES IN THE 10Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME (AS SUGGESTED BY OUR PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD). I ALSO
AGREE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT DURING THE MID DAY HOURS
RESULTING IN LARGELY CLEAR SKIES BY 21Z OR SO.

HOWEVER THERE IS GLITCH. THE GLITCH IS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP13 AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL SURGE
MORE QUICKLY SOUTH OVER BOTH LAKES THAN OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT THE NAM12 FORMS A MESO-LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...JUST WEST OF MKG AROUND 06Z THAT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT. IT DISSIPATES AS IT REACHES JUST OFF
SHORE OF CHICAGO BY 18Z. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF US-131 AND SOUTH OF I-96. AS SUGGESTED
BY OUR PREVIOUS AFD THE LAN TAF SITE HAS THE GREATEST RISK FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE AIR FLOW OFF SAGINAW BAY HELPING THE CAUSE. MKG
WOULD BE THE NEXT MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO GET THE LOW CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE THE AZO AND BTL TAF SITES ARE IN A LOCATION WHERE THE
MESO-LOW CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD
BE THE LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE ANY LOW CLOUD ISSUES THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT I KEPT THOSE TAF SITES LARGELY VFR ALL DAY (BRIEF MVFR F
AROUND SUNRISE AT AZO). JXN IS ON THE FENCE AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN
SO I KEPT THE IDEA FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF AND BROUGHT THE LOW
CLOUDS IN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE POINTS REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NNE WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER
BRISK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL KICK UP 3-5 FOOT WAVES. WINDS
TURN MORE NE AND LIGHTEN UP LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVES SUBSIDE.

WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY ALSO RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...JK






000
FXUS63 KGRR 180003
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
803 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE DETAIL TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVING IN (USED THE CONS-SHORT). THIS COMES CLOSE TO
MATCHING WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE 22Z RAP13 MODEL 950 TO 900 MB RH
WHICH IS MATCHING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOW. THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE
LOW CLOUDS SURGE SOUTH NEAR THE LAKE SHORE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
STATE WHILE MOVING MUCH SLOWER SOUTH INLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS REACH
OSCEOLA COUNTY AROUND 4 AM WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THEY WOULD REACH
MKG. THIS SUGGEST TO ME TEMPERATURES MAY WELL FALL INTO THE MID
30S INLAND OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. SO I LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURES AND ADDED PATCHY FROST IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
SFC COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OCCURRING. SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR HOWEVER HIGHS
MAY REACH 80 ON SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE IF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RATHER QUICK TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS LARGE/SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

WE ARE WATCHING THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT. AT
23Z THE FRONT WAS NEAR THE BIG MAC BRIDGE. THERE IS A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THAT
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTH. THE SHORT STORY IS THAT I WOULD EXPECT
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH AT THE I-96 TAF SITES IN THE 10Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME (AS SUGGESTED BY OUR PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD). I ALSO
AGREE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT DURING THE MID DAY HOURS
RESULTING IN LARGELY CLEAR SKIES BY 21Z OR SO.

HOWEVER THERE IS GLITCH. THE GLITCH IS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP13 AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL SURGE
MORE QUICKLY SOUTH OVER BOTH LAKES THAN OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT THE NAM12 FORMS A MESO-LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...JUST WEST OF MKG AROUND 06Z THAT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT. IT DISSIPATES AS IT REACHES JUST OFF
SHORE OF CHICAGO BY 18Z. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF US-131 AND SOUTH OF I-96. AS SUGGESTED
BY OUR PREVIOUS AFD THE LAN TAF SITE HAS THE GREATEST RISK FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE AIR FLOW OFF SAGINAW BAY HELPING THE CAUSE. MKG
WOULD BE THE NEXT MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO GET THE LOW CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE THE AZO AND BTL TAF SITES ARE IN A LOCATION WHERE THE
MESO-LOW CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD
BE THE LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE ANY LOW CLOUD ISSUES THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT I KEPT THOSE TAF SITES LARGELY VFR ALL DAY (BRIEF MVFR F
AROUND SUNRISE AT AZO). JXN IS ON THE FENCE AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN
SO I KEPT THE IDEA FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF AND BROUGHT THE LOW
CLOUDS IN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE POINTS REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NNE WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER
BRISK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL KICK UP 3-5 FOOT WAVES. WINDS
TURN MORE NE AND LIGHTEN UP LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVES SUBSIDE.

WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY ALSO RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...JK






000
FXUS63 KMQT 172337
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
737 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON POPS FOR
FRI THRU SAT AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NRN FLANK OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE SCENTRAL CONUS INTERACT WITH AN
INCRSGLY MOIST SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THU NGT...THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW...WITH H925
WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-45 KTS BY 12Z FRI ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHARP
PRES FALLS OVER NW ONTARIO...BTWN HI PRES MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND
AND A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AS WELL
AS INCRSG PWAT UP TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE W/INCRSG HIER CLDS OVER
SHARPENING DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE NW HALF IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AND WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE STRONGER.
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL...TEMPS MAY FALL MORE QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG WHEN SKIES WL BE MOCLR AND SFC WINDS STILL RATHER WEAK
UNDER RADIATION/WAD INVRN. BUT STRONGER SW FLOW DVLPG LATE SHOULD
MITIGATE A FURTHER TEMP DROP.

FRI/FRI NGT...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWVS STREAMING THRU THE GREAT LKS WITHIN A W-E
FLOW ALF AND INTERACTING WITH THE LLVL SW FLOW THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT UP TO ARND 1.5 INCH FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...THERE REMAIN SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS OF THE FCST. DESPITE THE INCRS IN
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND OVERALL INSTABILITY THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE SSI
AS LO AS -3C TO -4C AND INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TS LATE
FRI/FRI NGT WITH APRCH OF WARM FNT...BULK OF THE MODEL FCST SDNGS
SHOW AN INVRN BTWN H75-85 AND MID LVL DRYING AT TIMES THRU FRI NGT
THAT WOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL FRI AFTN AND THE E HALF
FRI EVNG...WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/ H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND
CNVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE SHARPER IN THOSE AREAS. BUT THERE
ARE ENUF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHRTWVS TRACKING THRU THE
AREA AS WELL AS IMPACT OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ON FRI TO CAST
DOUBT ON THIS CONSENSUS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCRSG CLD COVER WL HOLD
DOWN SFC HI TEMPS ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. EXPECT
RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT.

AS A STRONGER SHRTWV APRCHS SAT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/COLD FNT
SWING THRU THE UPR LKS...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST
SDNGS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE MID LVL INVRN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHC FOR THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF...ESPECIALLY IF THE
FASTER MODELS VERIFY AND SHOW SFC FNT SWEEPING THRU THE W TOO EARLY
IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON
SAT...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE SCENTRL MAY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AS HI AS 17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...
ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS/REINFORCING COLD FROPA DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF AND CAUSE A W SLOWLY VEERING
N CYC FLOW OVER THE AREA INDICATE THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS -2C ON SUN NGT. AS H85 TEMPS FALL...
THERE MAY BE A LK ENHANCED COMPONENT OF THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN
NGT WITH WSHFT TO THE N. BUT CHILLY LK WATERS...WITH BUOYS SHOWING
OPEN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 40S...MIGHT MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL. MON IS LIKELY TO BE
RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE HI SHIFTING
TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND THRU WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED EARLIER
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY
OFF LAND. INITIAL IFR CIGS...POSSIBLY LIFR...SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR
MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATE TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW ON THU UNDER DRY AIR MASS.
AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT OCNL MVFR CIGS GIVEN CLOUDS STILL UPSTREAM. BETTER CHC OF A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WINDS VEER
MORE EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT
KIWD...OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ003-005>007-012>014-085.

  FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC






000
FXUS63 KMQT 172337
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
737 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON POPS FOR
FRI THRU SAT AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NRN FLANK OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE SCENTRAL CONUS INTERACT WITH AN
INCRSGLY MOIST SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THU NGT...THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW...WITH H925
WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-45 KTS BY 12Z FRI ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHARP
PRES FALLS OVER NW ONTARIO...BTWN HI PRES MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND
AND A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AS WELL
AS INCRSG PWAT UP TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE W/INCRSG HIER CLDS OVER
SHARPENING DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE NW HALF IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AND WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE STRONGER.
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL...TEMPS MAY FALL MORE QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG WHEN SKIES WL BE MOCLR AND SFC WINDS STILL RATHER WEAK
UNDER RADIATION/WAD INVRN. BUT STRONGER SW FLOW DVLPG LATE SHOULD
MITIGATE A FURTHER TEMP DROP.

FRI/FRI NGT...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWVS STREAMING THRU THE GREAT LKS WITHIN A W-E
FLOW ALF AND INTERACTING WITH THE LLVL SW FLOW THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT UP TO ARND 1.5 INCH FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...THERE REMAIN SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS OF THE FCST. DESPITE THE INCRS IN
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND OVERALL INSTABILITY THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE SSI
AS LO AS -3C TO -4C AND INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TS LATE
FRI/FRI NGT WITH APRCH OF WARM FNT...BULK OF THE MODEL FCST SDNGS
SHOW AN INVRN BTWN H75-85 AND MID LVL DRYING AT TIMES THRU FRI NGT
THAT WOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL FRI AFTN AND THE E HALF
FRI EVNG...WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/ H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND
CNVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE SHARPER IN THOSE AREAS. BUT THERE
ARE ENUF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHRTWVS TRACKING THRU THE
AREA AS WELL AS IMPACT OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ON FRI TO CAST
DOUBT ON THIS CONSENSUS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCRSG CLD COVER WL HOLD
DOWN SFC HI TEMPS ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. EXPECT
RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT.

AS A STRONGER SHRTWV APRCHS SAT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/COLD FNT
SWING THRU THE UPR LKS...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST
SDNGS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE MID LVL INVRN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHC FOR THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF...ESPECIALLY IF THE
FASTER MODELS VERIFY AND SHOW SFC FNT SWEEPING THRU THE W TOO EARLY
IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON
SAT...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE SCENTRL MAY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AS HI AS 17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...
ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS/REINFORCING COLD FROPA DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF AND CAUSE A W SLOWLY VEERING
N CYC FLOW OVER THE AREA INDICATE THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS -2C ON SUN NGT. AS H85 TEMPS FALL...
THERE MAY BE A LK ENHANCED COMPONENT OF THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN
NGT WITH WSHFT TO THE N. BUT CHILLY LK WATERS...WITH BUOYS SHOWING
OPEN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 40S...MIGHT MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL. MON IS LIKELY TO BE
RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE HI SHIFTING
TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND THRU WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED EARLIER
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AT KSAW. WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY
OFF LAND. INITIAL IFR CIGS...POSSIBLY LIFR...SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR
MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATE TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KSAW ON THU UNDER DRY AIR MASS.
AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT OCNL MVFR CIGS GIVEN CLOUDS STILL UPSTREAM. BETTER CHC OF A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WINDS VEER
MORE EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE OFF THE WARMER WATER OF KEWEENAW BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AT KCMX. AT
KIWD...OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD AS WINDS VEER TO A DOWNSLOPE E TO SE DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ003-005>007-012>014-085.

  FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KGRR 172327
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
SFC COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OCCURRING. SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR HOWEVER HIGHS
MAY REACH 80 ON SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE IF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RATHER QUICK TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS LARGE/SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

WE ARE WATCHING THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT. AT
23Z THE FRONT WAS NEAR THE BIG MAC BRIDGE. THERE IS A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THAT
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTH. THE SHORT STORY IS THAT I WOULD EXPECT
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH AT THE I-96 TAF SITES IN THE 10Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME (AS SUGGESTED BY OUR PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD). I ALSO
AGREE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT DURING THE MID DAY HOURS
RESULTING IN LARGELY CLEAR SKIES BY 21Z OR SO.

HOWEVER THERE IS GLITCH. THE GLITCH IS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP13 AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL SURGE
MORE QUICKLY SOUTH OVER BOTH LAKES THAN OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT THE NAM12 FORMS A MESO-LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...JUST WEST OF MKG AROUND 06Z THAT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT. IT DISSIPATES AS IT REACHES JUST OFF
SHORE OF CHICAGO BY 18Z. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF US-131 AND SOUTH OF I-96. AS SUGGESTED
BY OUR PREVIOUS AFD THE LAN TAF SITE HAS THE GREATEST RISK FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE AIR FLOW OFF SAGINAW BAY HELPING THE CAUSE. MKG
WOULD BE THE NEXT MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO GET THE LOW CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE THE AZO AND BTL TAF SITES ARE IN A LOCATION WHERE THE
MESO-LOW CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD
BE THE LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE ANY LOW CLOUD ISSUES THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT I KEPT THOSE TAF SITES LARGELY VFR ALL DAY (BRIEF MVFR F
AROUND SUNRISE AT AZO). JXN IS ON THE FENCE AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN
SO I KEPT THE IDEA FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF AND BROUGHT THE LOW
CLOUDS IN.



&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE POINTS REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NNE WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER
BRISK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL KICK UP 3-5 FOOT WAVES. WINDS
TURN MORE NE AND LIGHTEN UP LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVES SUBSIDE.

WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY ALSO RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...JK







000
FXUS63 KGRR 172327
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
SFC COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OCCURRING. SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR HOWEVER HIGHS
MAY REACH 80 ON SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE IF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RATHER QUICK TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS LARGE/SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

WE ARE WATCHING THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT. AT
23Z THE FRONT WAS NEAR THE BIG MAC BRIDGE. THERE IS A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THAT
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTH. THE SHORT STORY IS THAT I WOULD EXPECT
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH AT THE I-96 TAF SITES IN THE 10Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME (AS SUGGESTED BY OUR PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD). I ALSO
AGREE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT DURING THE MID DAY HOURS
RESULTING IN LARGELY CLEAR SKIES BY 21Z OR SO.

HOWEVER THERE IS GLITCH. THE GLITCH IS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP13 AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL SURGE
MORE QUICKLY SOUTH OVER BOTH LAKES THAN OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT THE NAM12 FORMS A MESO-LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...JUST WEST OF MKG AROUND 06Z THAT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT. IT DISSIPATES AS IT REACHES JUST OFF
SHORE OF CHICAGO BY 18Z. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF US-131 AND SOUTH OF I-96. AS SUGGESTED
BY OUR PREVIOUS AFD THE LAN TAF SITE HAS THE GREATEST RISK FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE AIR FLOW OFF SAGINAW BAY HELPING THE CAUSE. MKG
WOULD BE THE NEXT MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO GET THE LOW CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE THE AZO AND BTL TAF SITES ARE IN A LOCATION WHERE THE
MESO-LOW CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD
BE THE LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE ANY LOW CLOUD ISSUES THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT I KEPT THOSE TAF SITES LARGELY VFR ALL DAY (BRIEF MVFR F
AROUND SUNRISE AT AZO). JXN IS ON THE FENCE AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN
SO I KEPT THE IDEA FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF AND BROUGHT THE LOW
CLOUDS IN.



&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE POINTS REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NNE WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER
BRISK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL KICK UP 3-5 FOOT WAVES. WINDS
TURN MORE NE AND LIGHTEN UP LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVES SUBSIDE.

WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY ALSO RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...JK







000
FXUS63 KGRR 172327
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
SFC COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OCCURRING. SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR HOWEVER HIGHS
MAY REACH 80 ON SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE IF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RATHER QUICK TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS LARGE/SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

WE ARE WATCHING THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT. AT
23Z THE FRONT WAS NEAR THE BIG MAC BRIDGE. THERE IS A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THAT
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTH. THE SHORT STORY IS THAT I WOULD EXPECT
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH AT THE I-96 TAF SITES IN THE 10Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME (AS SUGGESTED BY OUR PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD). I ALSO
AGREE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT DURING THE MID DAY HOURS
RESULTING IN LARGELY CLEAR SKIES BY 21Z OR SO.

HOWEVER THERE IS GLITCH. THE GLITCH IS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP13 AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL SURGE
MORE QUICKLY SOUTH OVER BOTH LAKES THAN OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT THE NAM12 FORMS A MESO-LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...JUST WEST OF MKG AROUND 06Z THAT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT. IT DISSIPATES AS IT REACHES JUST OFF
SHORE OF CHICAGO BY 18Z. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF US-131 AND SOUTH OF I-96. AS SUGGESTED
BY OUR PREVIOUS AFD THE LAN TAF SITE HAS THE GREATEST RISK FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE AIR FLOW OFF SAGINAW BAY HELPING THE CAUSE. MKG
WOULD BE THE NEXT MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO GET THE LOW CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE THE AZO AND BTL TAF SITES ARE IN A LOCATION WHERE THE
MESO-LOW CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD
BE THE LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE ANY LOW CLOUD ISSUES THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT I KEPT THOSE TAF SITES LARGELY VFR ALL DAY (BRIEF MVFR F
AROUND SUNRISE AT AZO). JXN IS ON THE FENCE AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN
SO I KEPT THE IDEA FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF AND BROUGHT THE LOW
CLOUDS IN.



&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE POINTS REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NNE WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER
BRISK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL KICK UP 3-5 FOOT WAVES. WINDS
TURN MORE NE AND LIGHTEN UP LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVES SUBSIDE.

WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY ALSO RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...JK







000
FXUS63 KGRR 172327
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
SFC COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OCCURRING. SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR HOWEVER HIGHS
MAY REACH 80 ON SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE IF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RATHER QUICK TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS LARGE/SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

WE ARE WATCHING THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT. AT
23Z THE FRONT WAS NEAR THE BIG MAC BRIDGE. THERE IS A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THAT
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTH. THE SHORT STORY IS THAT I WOULD EXPECT
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH AT THE I-96 TAF SITES IN THE 10Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME (AS SUGGESTED BY OUR PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD). I ALSO
AGREE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT DURING THE MID DAY HOURS
RESULTING IN LARGELY CLEAR SKIES BY 21Z OR SO.

HOWEVER THERE IS GLITCH. THE GLITCH IS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP13 AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL SURGE
MORE QUICKLY SOUTH OVER BOTH LAKES THAN OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT THE NAM12 FORMS A MESO-LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...JUST WEST OF MKG AROUND 06Z THAT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT. IT DISSIPATES AS IT REACHES JUST OFF
SHORE OF CHICAGO BY 18Z. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF US-131 AND SOUTH OF I-96. AS SUGGESTED
BY OUR PREVIOUS AFD THE LAN TAF SITE HAS THE GREATEST RISK FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE AIR FLOW OFF SAGINAW BAY HELPING THE CAUSE. MKG
WOULD BE THE NEXT MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO GET THE LOW CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE THE AZO AND BTL TAF SITES ARE IN A LOCATION WHERE THE
MESO-LOW CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD
BE THE LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE ANY LOW CLOUD ISSUES THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT I KEPT THOSE TAF SITES LARGELY VFR ALL DAY (BRIEF MVFR F
AROUND SUNRISE AT AZO). JXN IS ON THE FENCE AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN
SO I KEPT THE IDEA FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF AND BROUGHT THE LOW
CLOUDS IN.



&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE POINTS REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NNE WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER
BRISK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL KICK UP 3-5 FOOT WAVES. WINDS
TURN MORE NE AND LIGHTEN UP LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVES SUBSIDE.

WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY ALSO RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...JK







000
FXUS63 KDTX 172301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE TIP OF NORTHERN LOWER MI AS OF
22Z...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AROUND 04Z...THEN INTO
METRO DETROIT SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. A REGION OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS LAGGING THE FRONT WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE SE MI TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA. CEILINGS UPSTREAM SHOW CONSIDERABLE
VARIBILITY. THE EXPECTATION FOR A STRONGER AND MORE SHALLOW INVERSION
IN ADDITION TO THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME IFR AND LOW END MVFR BASED CLOUDS. FNT AND PTK
STAND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS AS THE ADDED MOISTURE
OFF LAKE HURON UNDERGOES SOME SLIGHT UPSLOPE INTO THESE TERMINALS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OF INFLUENCES OF LAKE
HURON RAISES SOME CONCERNS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY BE TOO
AGRESSIVE IN LIFTING CEILINGS ON THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HOLDING SOME
LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
METRO DETROIT...LEADING TO LESS AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN COMPARISON TO LOCALS FARTHER NORTH. THIS AND THE SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE INTO METRO UNDER THE N-NE WINDS ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW PERSISTENT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE IN METRO DETROIT AND HOW
QUICKLY THEY WILL DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HELPED SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LL
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WHICH STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN PARTS. EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MI DID MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO SAGINAW VALLEY AND FNT WHICH THEN EXPANDED THROUGH
THE THUMB. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO TAKE US INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE  EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRACKED THROUGH ONTARIO THIS MORNING LAYING OUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BROUGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF ONTARIO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
REACHING MBS AROUND 10Z AND DTW CLOSER TO 12Z. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NE FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OF LIGHT FOG AS
WELL BUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...LEANING MORE TOWARD LOW STRATUS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA IN
TERMS OF PRECIP AS HIRES MODELS SHOW PWATS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH THE MOISTURE DENSITY LOCATED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF THE COLUMN.
THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT...AND CAA...WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE VIEWS AND 500MB HEIGHT CONTOURS SHOW
INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG A JET STREAK OVER EASTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-RICH AREA CAN BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF TS ODILE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WESTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY IN A
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
RAISE PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH H85
THETA E TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL GOING FROM ABOUT 20C IN THE MORNING
TO LESS THAN 10C DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER NORTH OF I-69.

THE MAIN EDIT THIS CYCLE WAS TO LOWER MINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND LIKELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND FIELD THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND THE DOMAIN WITHIN 20 MILES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
LOOK FOR INLAND AREAS TO RADIATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S THOUGH.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE DOES NOT PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME VERY FAR PAST LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPORTING DRY AIR AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THE GEM
AND ECMWF DO PLOT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CWA. WENT LIKELY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WAVE PROGRESSION.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN FIRST IN THE THUMB REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING VEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AROUND THE THUMB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND WAVES. THE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL EASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
     THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MM/RK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 172301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE TIP OF NORTHERN LOWER MI AS OF
22Z...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AROUND 04Z...THEN INTO
METRO DETROIT SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. A REGION OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS LAGGING THE FRONT WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE SE MI TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA. CEILINGS UPSTREAM SHOW CONSIDERABLE
VARIBILITY. THE EXPECTATION FOR A STRONGER AND MORE SHALLOW INVERSION
IN ADDITION TO THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME IFR AND LOW END MVFR BASED CLOUDS. FNT AND PTK
STAND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS AS THE ADDED MOISTURE
OFF LAKE HURON UNDERGOES SOME SLIGHT UPSLOPE INTO THESE TERMINALS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OF INFLUENCES OF LAKE
HURON RAISES SOME CONCERNS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY BE TOO
AGRESSIVE IN LIFTING CEILINGS ON THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HOLDING SOME
LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
METRO DETROIT...LEADING TO LESS AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN COMPARISON TO LOCALS FARTHER NORTH. THIS AND THE SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE INTO METRO UNDER THE N-NE WINDS ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW PERSISTENT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE IN METRO DETROIT AND HOW
QUICKLY THEY WILL DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HELPED SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LL
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WHICH STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN PARTS. EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MI DID MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO SAGINAW VALLEY AND FNT WHICH THEN EXPANDED THROUGH
THE THUMB. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO TAKE US INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE  EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRACKED THROUGH ONTARIO THIS MORNING LAYING OUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BROUGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF ONTARIO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
REACHING MBS AROUND 10Z AND DTW CLOSER TO 12Z. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NE FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OF LIGHT FOG AS
WELL BUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...LEANING MORE TOWARD LOW STRATUS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA IN
TERMS OF PRECIP AS HIRES MODELS SHOW PWATS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH THE MOISTURE DENSITY LOCATED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF THE COLUMN.
THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT...AND CAA...WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE VIEWS AND 500MB HEIGHT CONTOURS SHOW
INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG A JET STREAK OVER EASTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-RICH AREA CAN BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF TS ODILE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WESTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY IN A
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
RAISE PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH H85
THETA E TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL GOING FROM ABOUT 20C IN THE MORNING
TO LESS THAN 10C DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER NORTH OF I-69.

THE MAIN EDIT THIS CYCLE WAS TO LOWER MINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND LIKELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND FIELD THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND THE DOMAIN WITHIN 20 MILES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
LOOK FOR INLAND AREAS TO RADIATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S THOUGH.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE DOES NOT PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME VERY FAR PAST LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPORTING DRY AIR AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THE GEM
AND ECMWF DO PLOT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CWA. WENT LIKELY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WAVE PROGRESSION.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN FIRST IN THE THUMB REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING VEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AROUND THE THUMB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND WAVES. THE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL EASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
     THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MM/RK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 172301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE TIP OF NORTHERN LOWER MI AS OF
22Z...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AROUND 04Z...THEN INTO
METRO DETROIT SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. A REGION OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS LAGGING THE FRONT WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE SE MI TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA. CEILINGS UPSTREAM SHOW CONSIDERABLE
VARIBILITY. THE EXPECTATION FOR A STRONGER AND MORE SHALLOW INVERSION
IN ADDITION TO THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME IFR AND LOW END MVFR BASED CLOUDS. FNT AND PTK
STAND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS AS THE ADDED MOISTURE
OFF LAKE HURON UNDERGOES SOME SLIGHT UPSLOPE INTO THESE TERMINALS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OF INFLUENCES OF LAKE
HURON RAISES SOME CONCERNS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY BE TOO
AGRESSIVE IN LIFTING CEILINGS ON THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HOLDING SOME
LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
METRO DETROIT...LEADING TO LESS AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN COMPARISON TO LOCALS FARTHER NORTH. THIS AND THE SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE INTO METRO UNDER THE N-NE WINDS ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW PERSISTENT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE IN METRO DETROIT AND HOW
QUICKLY THEY WILL DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HELPED SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LL
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WHICH STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN PARTS. EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MI DID MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO SAGINAW VALLEY AND FNT WHICH THEN EXPANDED THROUGH
THE THUMB. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO TAKE US INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE  EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRACKED THROUGH ONTARIO THIS MORNING LAYING OUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BROUGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF ONTARIO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
REACHING MBS AROUND 10Z AND DTW CLOSER TO 12Z. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NE FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OF LIGHT FOG AS
WELL BUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...LEANING MORE TOWARD LOW STRATUS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA IN
TERMS OF PRECIP AS HIRES MODELS SHOW PWATS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH THE MOISTURE DENSITY LOCATED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF THE COLUMN.
THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT...AND CAA...WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE VIEWS AND 500MB HEIGHT CONTOURS SHOW
INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG A JET STREAK OVER EASTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-RICH AREA CAN BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF TS ODILE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WESTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY IN A
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
RAISE PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH H85
THETA E TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL GOING FROM ABOUT 20C IN THE MORNING
TO LESS THAN 10C DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER NORTH OF I-69.

THE MAIN EDIT THIS CYCLE WAS TO LOWER MINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND LIKELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND FIELD THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND THE DOMAIN WITHIN 20 MILES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
LOOK FOR INLAND AREAS TO RADIATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S THOUGH.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE DOES NOT PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME VERY FAR PAST LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPORTING DRY AIR AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THE GEM
AND ECMWF DO PLOT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CWA. WENT LIKELY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WAVE PROGRESSION.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN FIRST IN THE THUMB REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING VEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AROUND THE THUMB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND WAVES. THE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL EASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
     THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MM/RK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 172301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE TIP OF NORTHERN LOWER MI AS OF
22Z...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AROUND 04Z...THEN INTO
METRO DETROIT SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. A REGION OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS LAGGING THE FRONT WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE SE MI TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA. CEILINGS UPSTREAM SHOW CONSIDERABLE
VARIBILITY. THE EXPECTATION FOR A STRONGER AND MORE SHALLOW INVERSION
IN ADDITION TO THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME IFR AND LOW END MVFR BASED CLOUDS. FNT AND PTK
STAND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS AS THE ADDED MOISTURE
OFF LAKE HURON UNDERGOES SOME SLIGHT UPSLOPE INTO THESE TERMINALS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OF INFLUENCES OF LAKE
HURON RAISES SOME CONCERNS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY BE TOO
AGRESSIVE IN LIFTING CEILINGS ON THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HOLDING SOME
LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
METRO DETROIT...LEADING TO LESS AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN COMPARISON TO LOCALS FARTHER NORTH. THIS AND THE SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE INTO METRO UNDER THE N-NE WINDS ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW PERSISTENT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE IN METRO DETROIT AND HOW
QUICKLY THEY WILL DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HELPED SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LL
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WHICH STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN PARTS. EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MI DID MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO SAGINAW VALLEY AND FNT WHICH THEN EXPANDED THROUGH
THE THUMB. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO TAKE US INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE  EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRACKED THROUGH ONTARIO THIS MORNING LAYING OUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BROUGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF ONTARIO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
REACHING MBS AROUND 10Z AND DTW CLOSER TO 12Z. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NE FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OF LIGHT FOG AS
WELL BUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...LEANING MORE TOWARD LOW STRATUS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA IN
TERMS OF PRECIP AS HIRES MODELS SHOW PWATS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH THE MOISTURE DENSITY LOCATED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF THE COLUMN.
THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT...AND CAA...WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE VIEWS AND 500MB HEIGHT CONTOURS SHOW
INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG A JET STREAK OVER EASTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-RICH AREA CAN BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF TS ODILE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WESTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY IN A
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
RAISE PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH H85
THETA E TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL GOING FROM ABOUT 20C IN THE MORNING
TO LESS THAN 10C DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER NORTH OF I-69.

THE MAIN EDIT THIS CYCLE WAS TO LOWER MINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND LIKELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND FIELD THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND THE DOMAIN WITHIN 20 MILES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
LOOK FOR INLAND AREAS TO RADIATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S THOUGH.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE DOES NOT PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME VERY FAR PAST LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPORTING DRY AIR AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THE GEM
AND ECMWF DO PLOT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CWA. WENT LIKELY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WAVE PROGRESSION.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN FIRST IN THE THUMB REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING VEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AROUND THE THUMB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND WAVES. THE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL EASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
     THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MM/RK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KAPX 172241
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
641 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO END THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD TROUGHINESS AND CHILLY AIR REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. EVEN HAS SOME SNOW
REPORTED AT CHAPLEAU ONTARIO...ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF SAULT SAINT
MARIE. AT THE SFC...ILL-DEFINED EAST-WEST COLD FRONT IS NOW
STRETCHED THROUGH THE STRAITS INTO NRN WISCONSIN AND SAGGING
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF LOW-MID CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
FEW SPRINKLES SKIRTING CHIPPEWA COUNTY. BEHIND THAT...STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND (AS MENTIONED) SOME CHILLY AIR POISED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD
QUICKLY ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...PUSHING COLD FRONT AND SHALLOW
COLD AIR DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. ATTENDING NARROW BAND OF
LOW-MID CLOUD COVER WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND WILL ALSO SAG DOWN THROUGH
THE REGION. QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL WE REALIZE
OVERNIGHT.

EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN PROBABLY HAS THE BEST SHOT. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER ONTARIO TODAY...BUT MUCH OF WHICH IS HEATING
INDUCED AND SHOULD THIN OUT THIS EVENING. THAT... COMBINED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFF ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THINK EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
FAIRLY WELL WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S. WITH THAT IN
MIND...WILL ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR CHIP/MACK COUNTIES AND LINE UP
WITH THE ONGOING FROST ADVISORY FOR AREAS FURTHER WEST.

A BIT MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW-MID CLOUD COVER SAGGING DOWN INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE INCOMING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AND NE
FLOW DEVELOPING OFF LAKE HURON...SUSPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
STUCK ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. SO NOT AS MUCH OF A FROST THREAT DOWN THIS WAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...CHILLY NIGHTS GIVE WAY TO A WARMER AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:

 *FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NEXT MONDAY AND
  TUESDAY NIGHTS
 *SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WITH
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL

PATTERN SUMMARY/FORECAST: A STRENGTHENING PACIFIC JET IS EVIDENT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC...WHICH IS
DESTINED TO BREAK DOWN THE CURRENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM.  THIS WILL BRIEFLY LEAD TO A FLATTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM AS THIS JET ENERGY CRASHES INTO THE WEST COAST.
HOWEVER...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...SHARPENING TROUGHING OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL RESULT IN BUCKLING OF THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW WITH
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REDEVELOPING ACROSS NOAM BY THE
END OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...AS WE REACH
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC JET
IS AGAIN PROGGED TO GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST AS HEIGHTS LOWER OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.  THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE-TROUGH /WHICH WOULD BUILD HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF
NOAM/...BUT GIVEN THE HOW AMPLIFIED THE INITIAL RIDGE-TROUGH COUPLET
IS...WILL NOT FOLLOW TOO FAR DOWN THIS ROAD /SEE 00Z GFS WHICH
MAINTAINS THE EASTERN TROUGH MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF/.

PATTERN IMPLICATIONS: THIS SUGGESTS A TYPICAL SEPTEMBER
ROLLER-COASTER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH INITIALLY
COOL TEMPERATURES BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO
MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WE REACH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
AS THE EASTERN TROUGH RELOADS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  A RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS CERTAINLY IN STORE
TO START NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE TO END THE PERIOD
AS OVERHEAD TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEPART EAST.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE: MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IS QUITE STRONG THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH
THE GFS THEN SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN TROUGHING BEYOND THIS.
CANNOT FULLY DISCOUNT THIS GIVEN HOW PERSISTENT THE EASTERN
TROUGHING HAS BEEN THIS SUMMER AND WILL TREND TO A CONSENSUS AT THIS
RANGE WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CONFIDENCE.

MIDDLE RANGE /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/:

THURSDAY: QUIET...BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN ALLOWING FOR LIGHT/COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED DURING THE DAY.  TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST A VERY DRY
LLEVEL AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING
THE DAY.  GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...MIXING WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW WITH MIXED LAYER LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW H8.  THUS...T9S 3-6C SUGGEST HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
50S CWA-WIDE.  THIS PORTENDS A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BEING DEVELOPING LLEVEL RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT GETTING
GOING OVERHEAD.  EXPECT THIS TO KEEP AREAS WEST OF US131 IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
EAST OF THIS.  CONFIDENCE RATHER HIGH FOR FROST EAST OF THIS AREA
WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE AS WELL. DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW MAY ALSO
IMPACT TEMPS/FROST CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT FROST/FREEZE RISK IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.

FRIDAY: RETURN FLOW IN FULL FORCE FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY AND WITH
SOUTHERLY LLEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
RATHER SLOW.  THUS...WILL RESTRICT POPS TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
EAST OF THIS.

VERTICAL MIXING WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED DUE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT.  REGARDLESS...WITH T9 WARNING TO 10-13C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS FOLDS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH PWATS PUSHING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND FREEZING LEVELS RISING ABOVE
12KFT.  WHILE QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM ALLOWING UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO REACH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S.

SEVERE THREAT IS PRETTY MINIMAL OVERNIGHT GIVEN ONLY MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /~500 J/KG/.  HOWEVER...FLOW AT H5 OF 40-50KTS AT LEAST
PRESENTS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WHICH COULD
LOCALLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HAIL.

SATURDAY: WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD
FRONT...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY.  THIS OVERALL SOLUTION IS A WEAKER ONE THAN DISCUSSED YESTERDAY
WITH THIS TREND AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. THIS PLACES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN DIRECTLY WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PLUME TO START THE DAY...WITH THIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH WITH TIME.  HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME ONGOING
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN LOWER TO START THE
DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO KEEP SURFACE HEATING
LIMITED.  GIVEN A POSITION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE DAY...HOWEVER...SEE NO REASON WHY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPECIFIC EVOLUTION IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS RANGE.  FEEL THAT LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY TO ADD
SOME MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL.

WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT...WHICH
WILL PRIMARILY BE GOVERNED ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE DAY.  GIVEN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...FEEL THAT THE THREAT
IS LIMITED...BUT IT CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING.

UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE
DAY.

WITH AGREEMENT ON A WEAKER /AND ALSO FASTER/ SURFACE LOW...EXPECT A
QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE PULLED BACK ON
POPS /PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS A RESULT. EXPECT ANY THUNDER
THREAT TO END DURING THE EVENING...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SHRAS
UNDER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
DEVELOPING...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND LOWS WILL STILL BE RATHER
MILD...IN THE 50S.

LONG RANGE /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/:

SUNDAY-MONDAY: IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS TURNING TO LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL.  WE MAY SQUEAK OUT A RELATIVELY DECENT DAY
SUNDAY...AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN GENERALLY MILD DESPITE ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION.  CYCLONIC FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING LAKE SUPPORT /DUE
TO FALLING TEMPS ALOFT/ SUGGEST A FEW SHRAS...BUT HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO EVEN LOWER 70S OVER NORTHEAST LOWER APPEAR REASONABLE.  THE
WARMTH WILL BE TEMPERED BY WHAT WILL BE A RATHER STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WITH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY...TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH SOME
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN T8S FALLING TO 0C UNDER
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: QUIET WEATHER TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  GIVEN SOMEWHAT REDUCED FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
RANGE...WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES WHICH...DESPITE
MODERATION...WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE BOTH MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHTS GIVEN
COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING TURNING WINDS SHARPLY TO THE NORTH. SHALLOW
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EXPANDING
LOWER STRATUS DECK (MVFR) DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...FURTHER REINFORCED ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
NIGHT (ESPECIALLY IMPACTING APN/PLN TERMINAL SITES). AT TVC/MBL...
NORTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND COULD ULTIMATELY SCATTER-OUT LOW
STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE MORE
PESSIMISTIC UNTIL STRONGER SUPPORT FOR SUCH CLEARING IS REALIZED.

ON THURSDAY...ANY REMAINING LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
BUILD ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT...

SUMMARY: A STRONG AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND THEN SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.  WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TEMPORARILY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
REGION...BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON SUNDAY.

HEADLINES: WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG
MUCH OF THE COASTS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON.  THESE WILL END
THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFTS LIKELY NEEDED ON
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFTS WILL AGAIN
BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDER CHANCES BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ008-015.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...ARNOTT






000
FXUS63 KGRR 172209
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
609 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
SFC COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OCCURRING. SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR HOWEVER HIGHS
MAY REACH 80 ON SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE IF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RATHER QUICK TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS LARGE/SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS FROM ROUGHLY 10Z TO 16Z
THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOWER IFR/MVFR CIGS EXISTS AT LAN AND
JXN... WITH LESSER POTENTIAL/CONFIDENCE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH AT
THE GRR/MKG/AZO/BTL TERMINALS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN TO VFR BY
18Z THURSDAY AS THE BAND OF STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIFTS
AND BEGINS TO SCATTER OUT.

WEST SFC WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
THE SFC COLD FRONT AFTER 09Z THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE POINTS REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NNE WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER
BRISK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL KICK UP 3-5 FOOT WAVES. WINDS
TURN MORE NE AND LIGHTEN UP LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVES SUBSIDE.

WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY ALSO RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...JK







000
FXUS63 KMQT 172009
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
409 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON POPS FOR
FRI THRU SAT AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NRN FLANK OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE SCENTRAL CONUS INTERACT WITH AN
INCRSGLY MOIST SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THU NGT...THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW...WITH H925
WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-45 KTS BY 12Z FRI ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHARP
PRES FALLS OVER NW ONTARIO...BTWN HI PRES MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND
AND A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AS WELL
AS INCRSG PWAT UP TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE W/INCRSG HIER CLDS OVER
SHARPENING DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE NW HALF IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AND WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE STRONGER.
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL...TEMPS MAY FALL MORE QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG WHEN SKIES WL BE MOCLR AND SFC WINDS STILL RATHER WEAK
UNDER RADIATION/WAD INVRN. BUT STRONGER SW FLOW DVLPG LATE SHOULD
MITIGATE A FURTHER TEMP DROP.

FRI/FRI NGT...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWVS STREAMING THRU THE GREAT LKS WITHIN A W-E
FLOW ALF AND INTERACTING WITH THE LLVL SW FLOW THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT UP TO ARND 1.5 INCH FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...THERE REMAIN SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS OF THE FCST. DESPITE THE INCRS IN
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND OVERALL INSTABILITY THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE SSI
AS LO AS -3C TO -4C AND INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TS LATE
FRI/FRI NGT WITH APRCH OF WARM FNT...BULK OF THE MODEL FCST SDNGS
SHOW AN INVRN BTWN H75-85 AND MID LVL DRYING AT TIMES THRU FRI NGT
THAT WOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL FRI AFTN AND THE E HALF
FRI EVNG...WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/ H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND
CNVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE SHARPER IN THOSE AREAS. BUT THERE
ARE ENUF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHRTWVS TRACKING THRU THE
AREA AS WELL AS IMPACT OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ON FRI TO CAST
DOUBT ON THIS CONSENSUS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCRSG CLD COVER WL HOLD
DOWN SFC HI TEMPS ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. EXPECT
RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT.

AS A STRONGER SHRTWV APRCHS SAT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/COLD FNT
SWING THRU THE UPR LKS...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST
SDNGS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE MID LVL INVRN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHC FOR THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF...ESPECIALLY IF THE
FASTER MODELS VERIFY AND SHOW SFC FNT SWEEPING THRU THE W TOO EARLY
IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON
SAT...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE SCENTRL MAY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AS HI AS 17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...
ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS/REINFORCING COLD FROPA DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF AND CAUSE A W SLOWLY VEERING
N CYC FLOW OVER THE AREA INDICATE THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS -2C ON SUN NGT. AS H85 TEMPS FALL...
THERE MAY BE A LK ENHANCED COMPONENT OF THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN
NGT WITH WSHFT TO THE N. BUT CHILLY LK WATERS...WITH BUOYS SHOWING
OPEN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 40S...MIGHT MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL. MON IS LIKELY TO BE
RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE HI SHIFTING
TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND THRU WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WI AND N LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN BR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER MI...AND LIFR CEILINGS AT IWD AND SAW.
CURRENT LIFR CEILINGS AT CMX AND SAW WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT TRACKING OF THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS VFR CEILINGS BACK BY
AROUND 21Z AT CMX...AND BY 23Z AT SAW AND IWD. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
TURN MORE NE TO E OVERNIGHT...AS DRIER AIR FILTER IN. EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS WITH VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...UNDER VFR CEILINGS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ003-005>007-012>014-085.

  FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 172009
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
409 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. PLENTY OF CLEARING IS JUST UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO
DRIFT SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

PW VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/ OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR
40F ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL AREAS BUT KEWEENAW COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF E GOGEBIC AND MUCH OF
IRON COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH VIS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWER PROBABILITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR MOVING
IN AND LIMITED IMPACT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E
/ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY/...WHILE THE
500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL
BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...DESPITE SOME WAA AT 850MB WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO A CWA AVERAGED 5C...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. THIS IS APPROX 10F BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON POPS FOR
FRI THRU SAT AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NRN FLANK OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE SCENTRAL CONUS INTERACT WITH AN
INCRSGLY MOIST SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THU NGT...THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW...WITH H925
WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-45 KTS BY 12Z FRI ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHARP
PRES FALLS OVER NW ONTARIO...BTWN HI PRES MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND
AND A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AS WELL
AS INCRSG PWAT UP TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE W/INCRSG HIER CLDS OVER
SHARPENING DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE NW HALF IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AND WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE STRONGER.
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL...TEMPS MAY FALL MORE QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG WHEN SKIES WL BE MOCLR AND SFC WINDS STILL RATHER WEAK
UNDER RADIATION/WAD INVRN. BUT STRONGER SW FLOW DVLPG LATE SHOULD
MITIGATE A FURTHER TEMP DROP.

FRI/FRI NGT...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWVS STREAMING THRU THE GREAT LKS WITHIN A W-E
FLOW ALF AND INTERACTING WITH THE LLVL SW FLOW THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT UP TO ARND 1.5 INCH FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...THERE REMAIN SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS OF THE FCST. DESPITE THE INCRS IN
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND OVERALL INSTABILITY THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE SSI
AS LO AS -3C TO -4C AND INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TS LATE
FRI/FRI NGT WITH APRCH OF WARM FNT...BULK OF THE MODEL FCST SDNGS
SHOW AN INVRN BTWN H75-85 AND MID LVL DRYING AT TIMES THRU FRI NGT
THAT WOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL FRI AFTN AND THE E HALF
FRI EVNG...WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/ H925-7 MSTR TRANSPORT AND
CNVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE SHARPER IN THOSE AREAS. BUT THERE
ARE ENUF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHRTWVS TRACKING THRU THE
AREA AS WELL AS IMPACT OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ON FRI TO CAST
DOUBT ON THIS CONSENSUS. AS FOR TEMPS...INCRSG CLD COVER WL HOLD
DOWN SFC HI TEMPS ON FRI DESPITE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. EXPECT
RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT WITH STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT.

AS A STRONGER SHRTWV APRCHS SAT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/COLD FNT
SWING THRU THE UPR LKS...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS
AGAIN WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN SYNC WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST
SDNGS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE MID LVL INVRN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHC FOR THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF...ESPECIALLY IF THE
FASTER MODELS VERIFY AND SHOW SFC FNT SWEEPING THRU THE W TOO EARLY
IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC COLD FNT PASSES ON
SAT...SOME PLACES MAINLY OVER THE SCENTRL MAY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AS HI AS 17C.

SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...
ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS/REINFORCING COLD FROPA DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LKS THAT ARE FCST TO DEEPEN AN UPR TROF AND CAUSE A W SLOWLY VEERING
N CYC FLOW OVER THE AREA INDICATE THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD
COVER...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WX AS H85 TEMPS DROP FM AS HI
AS 15C ON SAT AFTN TO AS LO AS -2C ON SUN NGT. AS H85 TEMPS FALL...
THERE MAY BE A LK ENHANCED COMPONENT OF THE CLDS/SHOWERS SUN AND SUN
NGT WITH WSHFT TO THE N. BUT CHILLY LK WATERS...WITH BUOYS SHOWING
OPEN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 40S...MIGHT MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED...WITH HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LKS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL. MON IS LIKELY TO BE
RATHER COOL...BUT RETURN SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE HI SHIFTING
TOWARD THE LOWER LKS WL BRING A WARMING TREND THRU WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WI AND N LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN BR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER MI...AND LIFR CEILINGS AT IWD AND SAW.
CURRENT LIFR CEILINGS AT CMX AND SAW WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT TRACKING OF THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS VFR CEILINGS BACK BY
AROUND 21Z AT CMX...AND BY 23Z AT SAW AND IWD. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
TURN MORE NE TO E OVERNIGHT...AS DRIER AIR FILTER IN. EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS WITH VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...UNDER VFR CEILINGS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

ENE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SEWARD THRU NW
ONTARIO AS HI AS 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FUNNELING OF THE FLOW MIGHT
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW...THE WINDS WL VEER TO THE S AND THEN INCREASE THRU
THE DAY ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HI AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. SSW
WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS...BUT HI STABILITY OVER THE UNUSUALLY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE WATER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W-NW
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO
THE N AND INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS ON SUN/MON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ003-005>007-012>014-085.

  FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KAPX 171957
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
357 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO END THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD TROUGHINESS AND CHILLY AIR REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. EVEN HAS SOME SNOW
REPORTED AT CHAPLEAU ONTARIO...ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF SAULT SAINT
MARIE. AT THE SFC...ILL-DEFINED EAST-WEST COLD FRONT IS NOW
STRETCHED THROUGH THE STRAITS INTO NRN WISCONSIN AND SAGGING
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF LOW-MID CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
FEW SPRINKLES SKIRTING CHIPPEWA COUNTY. BEHIND THAT...STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND (AS MENTIONED) SOME CHILLY AIR POISED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD
QUICKLY ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...PUSHING COLD FRONT AND SHALLOW
COLD AIR DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. ATTENDING NARROW BAND OF
LOW-MID CLOUD COVER WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND WILL ALSO SAG DOWN THROUGH
THE REGION. QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL WE REALIZE
OVERNIGHT.

EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN PROBABLY HAS THE BEST SHOT. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER ONTARIO TODAY...BUT MUCH OF WHICH IS HEATING
INDUCED AND SHOULD THIN OUT THIS EVENING. THAT... COMBINED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFF ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THINK EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
FAIRLY WELL WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S. WITH THAT IN
MIND...WILL ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR CHIP/MACK COUNTIES AND LINE UP
WITH THE ONGOING FROST ADVISORY FOR AREAS FURTHER WEST.

A BIT MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW-MID CLOUD COVER SAGGING DOWN INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE INCOMING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AND NE
FLOW DEVELOPING OFF LAKE HURON...SUSPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
STUCK ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. SO NOT AS MUCH OF A FROST THREAT DOWN THIS WAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...CHILLY NIGHTS GIVE WAY TO A WARMER AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:

 *FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NEXT MONDAY AND
  TUESDAY NIGHTS
 *SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WITH
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL

PATTERN SUMMARY/FORECAST: A STRENGTHENING PACIFIC JET IS EVIDENT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC...WHICH IS
DESTINED TO BREAK DOWN THE CURRENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM.  THIS WILL BRIEFLY LEAD TO A FLATTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM AS THIS JET ENERGY CRASHES INTO THE WEST COAST.
HOWEVER...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...SHARPENING TROUGHING OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL RESULT IN BUCKLING OF THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW WITH
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REDEVELOPING ACROSS NOAM BY THE
END OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...AS WE REACH
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC JET
IS AGAIN PROGGED TO GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST AS HEIGHTS LOWER OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.  THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE-TROUGH /WHICH WOULD BUILD HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF
NOAM/...BUT GIVEN THE HOW AMPLIFIED THE INITIAL RIDGE-TROUGH COUPLET
IS...WILL NOT FOLLOW TOO FAR DOWN THIS ROAD /SEE 00Z GFS WHICH
MAINTAINS THE EASTERN TROUGH MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF/.

PATTERN IMPLICATIONS: THIS SUGGESTS A TYPICAL SEPTEMBER
ROLLER-COASTER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH INITIALLY
COOL TEMPERATURES BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO
MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WE REACH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
AS THE EASTERN TROUGH RELOADS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  A RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS CERTAINLY IN STORE
TO START NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE TO END THE PERIOD
AS OVERHEAD TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEPART EAST.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE: MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IS QUITE STRONG THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH
THE GFS THEN SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN TROUGHING BEYOND THIS.
CANNOT FULLY DISCOUNT THIS GIVEN HOW PERSISTENT THE EASTERN
TROUGHING HAS BEEN THIS SUMMER AND WILL TREND TO A CONSENSUS AT THIS
RANGE WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CONFIDENCE.

MIDDLE RANGE /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/:

THURSDAY: QUIET...BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN ALLOWING FOR LIGHT/COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED DURING THE DAY.  TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST A VERY DRY
LLEVEL AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING
THE DAY.  GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...MIXING WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW WITH MIXED LAYER LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW H8.  THUS...T9S 3-6C SUGGEST HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
50S CWA-WIDE.  THIS PORTENDS A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BEING DEVELOPING LLEVEL RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT GETTING
GOING OVERHEAD.  EXPECT THIS TO KEEP AREAS WEST OF US131 IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
EAST OF THIS.  CONFIDENCE RATHER HIGH FOR FROST EAST OF THIS AREA
WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE AS WELL. DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW MAY ALSO
IMPACT TEMPS/FROST CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT FROST/FREEZE RISK IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.

FRIDAY: RETURN FLOW IN FULL FORCE FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY AND WITH
SOUTHERLY LLEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
RATHER SLOW.  THUS...WILL RESTRICT POPS TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
EAST OF THIS.

VERTICAL MIXING WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED DUE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT.  REGARDLESS...WITH T9 WARNING TO 10-13C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS FOLDS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH PWATS PUSHING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND FREEZING LEVELS RISING ABOVE
12KFT.  WHILE QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM ALLOWING UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO REACH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S.

SEVERE THREAT IS PRETTY MINIMAL OVERNIGHT GIVEN ONLY MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /~500 J/KG/.  HOWEVER...FLOW AT H5 OF 40-50KTS AT LEAST
PRESENTS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WHICH COULD
LOCALLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HAIL.

SATURDAY: WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD
FRONT...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY.  THIS OVERALL SOLUTION IS A WEAKER ONE THAN DISCUSSED YESTERDAY
WITH THIS TREND AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. THIS PLACES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN DIRECTLY WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PLUME TO START THE DAY...WITH THIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH WITH TIME.  HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME ONGOING
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN LOWER TO START THE
DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO KEEP SURFACE HEATING
LIMITED.  GIVEN A POSITION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE DAY...HOWEVER...SEE NO REASON WHY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPECIFIC EVOLUTION IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS RANGE.  FEEL THAT LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY TO ADD
SOME MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL.

WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT...WHICH
WILL PRIMARILY BE GOVERNED ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE DAY.  GIVEN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...FEEL THAT THE THREAT
IS LIMITED...BUT IT CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING.

UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE
DAY.

WITH AGREEMENT ON A WEAKER /AND ALSO FASTER/ SURFACE LOW...EXPECT A
QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE PULLED BACK ON
POPS /PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS A RESULT. EXPECT ANY THUNDER
THREAT TO END DURING THE EVENING...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SHRAS
UNDER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
DEVELOPING...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND LOWS WILL STILL BE RATHER
MILD...IN THE 50S.

LONG RANGE /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/:

SUNDAY-MONDAY: IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS TURNING TO LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL.  WE MAY SQUEAK OUT A RELATIVELY DECENT DAY
SUNDAY...AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN GENERALLY MILD DESPITE ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION.  CYCLONIC FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING LAKE SUPPORT /DUE
TO FALLING TEMPS ALOFT/ SUGGEST A FEW SHRAS...BUT HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO EVEN LOWER 70S OVER NORTHEAST LOWER APPEAR REASONABLE.  THE
WARMTH WILL BE TEMPERED BY WHAT WILL BE A RATHER STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WITH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY...TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH SOME
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN T8S FALLING TO 0C UNDER
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: QUIET WEATHER TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  GIVEN SOMEWHAT REDUCED FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
RANGE...WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES WHICH...DESPITE
MODERATION...WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE BOTH MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHTS GIVEN
COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SCT-BKN VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL FADE QUICKLY BY EVENING. HOWEVER...ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING TURNING WINDS SHARPLY
INTO THE NORTH. SHALLOW COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO
EXPANDING LOWER STRATUS DECK (MVFR) DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...FURTHER REINFORCED ACROSS NE LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING NE OFF LAKE
HURON WHERE A BKN-OVC STRATUS DECK MAY HOLD TIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA
(AND THE APN/PLN TERMINAL SITES) THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT TVC/MBL...
NORTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND COULD ULTIMATELY SCATTER-OUT LOW
STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT. BUT HAVE GONE WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC
SKY FORECAST AT TVC/MBL FOR NOW.

ON THURSDAY...ANY REMAINING LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
BUILD ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE LATE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT...

SUMMARY: A STRONG AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND THEN SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.  WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TEMPORARILY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
REGION...BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON SUNDAY.

HEADLINES: WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG
MUCH OF THE COASTS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON.  THESE WILL END
THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFTS LIKELY NEEDED ON
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFTS WILL AGAIN
BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDER CHANCES BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ008-015.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ARNOTT






000
FXUS63 KDTX 171927
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HELPED SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LL
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WHICH STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN PARTS. EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MI DID MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO SAGINAW VALLEY AND FNT WHICH THEN EXPANDED THROUGH
THE THUMB. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO TAKE US INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE  EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRACKED THROUGH ONTARIO THIS MORNING LAYING OUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BROUGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF ONTARIO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
REACHING MBS AROUND 10Z AND DTW CLOSER TO 12Z. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NE FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OF LIGHT FOG AS
WELL BUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...LEANING MORE TOWARD LOW STRATUS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA IN
TERMS OF PRECIP AS HIRES MODELS SHOW PWATS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH THE MOISTURE DENSITY LOCATED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF THE COLUMN.
THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT...AND CAA...WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE VIEWS AND 500MB HEIGHT CONTOURS SHOW
INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG A JET STREAK OVER EASTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-RICH AREA CAN BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF TS ODILE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WESTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY IN A
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
RAISE PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH H85
THETA E TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL GOING FROM ABOUT 20C IN THE MORNING
TO LESS THAN 10C DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER NORTH OF I-69.

THE MAIN EDIT THIS CYCLE WAS TO LOWER MINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND LIKELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND FIELD THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND THE DOMAIN WITHIN 20 MILES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
LOOK FOR INLAND AREAS TO RADIATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S THOUGH.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE DOES NOT PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME VERY FAR PAST LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPORTING DRY AIR AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THE GEM
AND ECMWF DO PLOT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CWA. WENT LIKELY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WAVE PROGRESSION.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN FIRST IN THE THUMB REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING VEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AROUND THE THUMB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND WAVES. THE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL EASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 125 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF IFR
STRATOCU AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FOG FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR MBS/FNT WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR THE DETROIT METRO TAFS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT
AFTER THEY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON THURSDAY BRINGING
IMPROVED CONDITIONS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
     THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MM/RK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 171927
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HELPED SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LL
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WHICH STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN PARTS. EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MI DID MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO SAGINAW VALLEY AND FNT WHICH THEN EXPANDED THROUGH
THE THUMB. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO TAKE US INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE  EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRACKED THROUGH ONTARIO THIS MORNING LAYING OUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BROUGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF ONTARIO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
REACHING MBS AROUND 10Z AND DTW CLOSER TO 12Z. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NE FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OF LIGHT FOG AS
WELL BUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...LEANING MORE TOWARD LOW STRATUS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA IN
TERMS OF PRECIP AS HIRES MODELS SHOW PWATS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH THE MOISTURE DENSITY LOCATED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF THE COLUMN.
THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT...AND CAA...WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE VIEWS AND 500MB HEIGHT CONTOURS SHOW
INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG A JET STREAK OVER EASTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-RICH AREA CAN BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF TS ODILE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WESTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY IN A
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
RAISE PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH H85
THETA E TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL GOING FROM ABOUT 20C IN THE MORNING
TO LESS THAN 10C DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER NORTH OF I-69.

THE MAIN EDIT THIS CYCLE WAS TO LOWER MINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND LIKELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND FIELD THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND THE DOMAIN WITHIN 20 MILES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
LOOK FOR INLAND AREAS TO RADIATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S THOUGH.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE DOES NOT PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME VERY FAR PAST LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPORTING DRY AIR AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THE GEM
AND ECMWF DO PLOT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CWA. WENT LIKELY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WAVE PROGRESSION.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN FIRST IN THE THUMB REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING VEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AROUND THE THUMB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND WAVES. THE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL EASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 125 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF IFR
STRATOCU AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FOG FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR MBS/FNT WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR THE DETROIT METRO TAFS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT
AFTER THEY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON THURSDAY BRINGING
IMPROVED CONDITIONS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
     THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MM/RK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 171927
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HELPED SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LL
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WHICH STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN PARTS. EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MI DID MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO SAGINAW VALLEY AND FNT WHICH THEN EXPANDED THROUGH
THE THUMB. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO TAKE US INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE  EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRACKED THROUGH ONTARIO THIS MORNING LAYING OUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BROUGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF ONTARIO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
REACHING MBS AROUND 10Z AND DTW CLOSER TO 12Z. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NE FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OF LIGHT FOG AS
WELL BUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...LEANING MORE TOWARD LOW STRATUS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA IN
TERMS OF PRECIP AS HIRES MODELS SHOW PWATS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH THE MOISTURE DENSITY LOCATED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF THE COLUMN.
THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT...AND CAA...WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE VIEWS AND 500MB HEIGHT CONTOURS SHOW
INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG A JET STREAK OVER EASTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-RICH AREA CAN BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF TS ODILE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WESTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY IN A
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
RAISE PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH H85
THETA E TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL GOING FROM ABOUT 20C IN THE MORNING
TO LESS THAN 10C DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER NORTH OF I-69.

THE MAIN EDIT THIS CYCLE WAS TO LOWER MINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND LIKELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND FIELD THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND THE DOMAIN WITHIN 20 MILES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
LOOK FOR INLAND AREAS TO RADIATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S THOUGH.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE DOES NOT PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME VERY FAR PAST LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPORTING DRY AIR AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THE GEM
AND ECMWF DO PLOT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CWA. WENT LIKELY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WAVE PROGRESSION.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN FIRST IN THE THUMB REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING VEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AROUND THE THUMB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND WAVES. THE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL EASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 125 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF IFR
STRATOCU AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FOG FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR MBS/FNT WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR THE DETROIT METRO TAFS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT
AFTER THEY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON THURSDAY BRINGING
IMPROVED CONDITIONS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
     THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MM/RK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 171927
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HELPED SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LL
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WHICH STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN PARTS. EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MI DID MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO SAGINAW VALLEY AND FNT WHICH THEN EXPANDED THROUGH
THE THUMB. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO TAKE US INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE  EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRACKED THROUGH ONTARIO THIS MORNING LAYING OUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BROUGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF ONTARIO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
REACHING MBS AROUND 10Z AND DTW CLOSER TO 12Z. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NE FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OF LIGHT FOG AS
WELL BUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...LEANING MORE TOWARD LOW STRATUS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA IN
TERMS OF PRECIP AS HIRES MODELS SHOW PWATS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH THE MOISTURE DENSITY LOCATED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF THE COLUMN.
THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT...AND CAA...WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE VIEWS AND 500MB HEIGHT CONTOURS SHOW
INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG A JET STREAK OVER EASTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-RICH AREA CAN BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF TS ODILE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WESTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY IN A
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
RAISE PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH H85
THETA E TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL GOING FROM ABOUT 20C IN THE MORNING
TO LESS THAN 10C DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER NORTH OF I-69.

THE MAIN EDIT THIS CYCLE WAS TO LOWER MINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND LIKELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND FIELD THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND THE DOMAIN WITHIN 20 MILES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
LOOK FOR INLAND AREAS TO RADIATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S THOUGH.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE DOES NOT PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME VERY FAR PAST LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPORTING DRY AIR AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THE GEM
AND ECMWF DO PLOT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CWA. WENT LIKELY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WAVE PROGRESSION.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN FIRST IN THE THUMB REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING VEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AROUND THE THUMB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND WAVES. THE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL EASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 125 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF IFR
STRATOCU AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FOG FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR MBS/FNT WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR THE DETROIT METRO TAFS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT
AFTER THEY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON THURSDAY BRINGING
IMPROVED CONDITIONS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
     THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MM/RK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 171924
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
SFC COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OCCURRING. SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR HOWEVER HIGHS
MAY REACH 80 ON SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE IF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RATHER QUICK TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS LARGE/SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS FROM ROUGHLY 10Z TO 16Z
THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOWER IFR/MVFR CIGS EXISTS AT LAN AND
JXN... WITH LESSER POTENTIAL/CONFIDENCE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH AT
THE GRR/MKG/AZO/BTL TERMINALS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN TO VFR BY
18Z THURSDAY AS THE BAND OF STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIFTS
AND BEGINS TO SCATTER OUT.

WEST SFC WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
THE SFC COLD FRONT AFTER 09Z THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
GIVEN THE NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATER. HOWEVER...IF WINDS ARE A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY...WAVES MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA NEAR THE POINTS NORTH OF
WHITEHALL. OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A SCA AT THIS TIME AS WE EXPECT 2 TO
4 FOOTERS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY.

WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY ALSO RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 171924
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOMEWHAT TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
SFC COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OCCURRING. SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR HOWEVER HIGHS
MAY REACH 80 ON SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE IF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RATHER QUICK TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS LARGE/SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS FROM ROUGHLY 10Z TO 16Z
THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOWER IFR/MVFR CIGS EXISTS AT LAN AND
JXN... WITH LESSER POTENTIAL/CONFIDENCE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH AT
THE GRR/MKG/AZO/BTL TERMINALS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN TO VFR BY
18Z THURSDAY AS THE BAND OF STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIFTS
AND BEGINS TO SCATTER OUT.

WEST SFC WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
THE SFC COLD FRONT AFTER 09Z THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
GIVEN THE NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATER. HOWEVER...IF WINDS ARE A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY...WAVES MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA NEAR THE POINTS NORTH OF
WHITEHALL. OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A SCA AT THIS TIME AS WE EXPECT 2 TO
4 FOOTERS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY.

WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY ALSO RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 171924
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WE/LL SEE THE
CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
ADDED SOME FROST TO THE GRIDS AND WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO WE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
LENGTHEN QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT NW OF A GRAND HAVEN TO
CLARE LINE. TSRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN BEFORE DUE
TO GROWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR
A SHORT TIME FROM AROUND 09-13Z...SO SOME -DZ MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.L