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000
FXUS63 KDTX 280353
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

DEFORMATION SHRAS WILL WRAP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE FORECAST AS POTENT SHORTWAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. NORTH/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE
WILL USHER IN MVFR/LOWER VFR STRATUS...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE
DAY MONDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED...WINDS WILL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
HELP TO ERODE/LIFT STRATUS WITH TIME AND SCT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FOR DTW...SHRAS WILL PERSIST OFF/ON THROUGH 08Z/09Z BEFORE EXITING
SHORTWAVE PULLS DEFORMATION SHRAS EAST WITH IT. CIGS WILL FALL BELOW
5000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN AT LEAST BKN INTO MIDDAY MONDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ048-MIZ049...FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
     MONDAY.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ055-MIZ063...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
     MONDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 280353
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

DEFORMATION SHRAS WILL WRAP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE FORECAST AS POTENT SHORTWAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. NORTH/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE
WILL USHER IN MVFR/LOWER VFR STRATUS...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE
DAY MONDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED...WINDS WILL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
HELP TO ERODE/LIFT STRATUS WITH TIME AND SCT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FOR DTW...SHRAS WILL PERSIST OFF/ON THROUGH 08Z/09Z BEFORE EXITING
SHORTWAVE PULLS DEFORMATION SHRAS EAST WITH IT. CIGS WILL FALL BELOW
5000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN AT LEAST BKN INTO MIDDAY MONDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ048-MIZ049...FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
     MONDAY.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ055-MIZ063...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
     MONDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRR 280347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH INCREASES CIGS HEIGHTS TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 280347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH INCREASES CIGS HEIGHTS TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 280347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH INCREASES CIGS HEIGHTS TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 280347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH INCREASES CIGS HEIGHTS TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 272359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE STORMS ARE EXITING THE AREA BUT NOW I AM WATCHING AN AREA OF
MVFR CIGS EXPANDING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. I
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BECOME MVFR BY 06Z OR SOONER. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 272359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE STORMS ARE EXITING THE AREA BUT NOW I AM WATCHING AN AREA OF
MVFR CIGS EXPANDING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. I
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BECOME MVFR BY 06Z OR SOONER. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMQT 272328
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE CLEARING LINE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF MN AND ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO SINK S ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE SFC
LOW HAS SHIFTED ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH TRAILING
ACROSS E UPPER MI THROUGH SE WI. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO STICK
AROUND TOO MUCH LONGER. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS LINGERING BEHIND THE DRY
AIR SHIFTING IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. PW VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 1.15IN /110-125 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ WILL FALL TO AROUND
0.5-0.6IN BY 06Z MONDAY /50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. KEPT WITH THE
LOWER TEMP GUIDANCE STILL FOR TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL OF OUR
TYPICALLY COOL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE N PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDS IT/S REACH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE MORNING ON. WENT MINIMAL ON THE CLOUDS
FOR NOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR ISLE ROYALE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN PUSHING S OUT
OF W HUDSON BAY. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NW
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THEY MAY CLIP ISLE ROYALE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CAUGHT IN A COOLER N-NW FLOW
ALOFT BTWN A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NR JAMES BAY/WRN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY LOW INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WARRANT KEEPING CHC POPS IN FCST FOR
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD DIURNAL SHRA OVER THE INTERIOR CWA TUE INTO FRI.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS LIKE TUE WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA AND A
SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA INITIATION.
WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 300-600 J/KG RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN FCST...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL CWA. UNIDIRECTIONAL
0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS AND SKINNY CAPE DEPICTED ON FCST SNDGS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SVR STORMS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY LATE WEEK ON
EXACT TIMING/MODEL RESOLUTION OF SHORTWAVES. ALSO A SFC RDG RESIDING
OVER THE AREA MAY INHIBIT SHRA DEVELOPMENT SO WILL JUST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA WED AND FRI. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS PATTERN DUE TO LACK OF GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION AND PWATS REMAINING GENERALLY BTWN 65-90 PCT OF NORMAL
THRU PD.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH TROUGH
GRADUALLY WEAKENING PUSHING EAST OF THE UPPER LAKES BY LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FM THE NRN PLAINS. OVERALL...WOULD
EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL AS 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND TO 12-14C BY LATE
SUNDAY. DUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE RIDGING ALOFT...EXPECT ONLY DIURNAL
ISOLD SHRA DEVELOPMENT AT BEST...MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AS DRIER AIRMASS
IN ONTARIO SLIDES TO THE S. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON MON
AFTN AND POSSIBLY EVEN A -SHRA LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE APRCH OF A
DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE LLVLS WL BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ENSURE VFR WX EVEN IF A -SHRA IMPACTS ANY OF THE
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY END N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SE CORNER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THEN N PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY...SLOWLY
EXPANDING S. AS THE LOW MOVES/DEEPENS ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR THE WEAK TROUGH TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 272328
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE CLEARING LINE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF MN AND ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO SINK S ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE SFC
LOW HAS SHIFTED ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH TRAILING
ACROSS E UPPER MI THROUGH SE WI. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO STICK
AROUND TOO MUCH LONGER. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS LINGERING BEHIND THE DRY
AIR SHIFTING IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. PW VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 1.15IN /110-125 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ WILL FALL TO AROUND
0.5-0.6IN BY 06Z MONDAY /50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. KEPT WITH THE
LOWER TEMP GUIDANCE STILL FOR TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL OF OUR
TYPICALLY COOL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE N PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDS IT/S REACH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE MORNING ON. WENT MINIMAL ON THE CLOUDS
FOR NOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR ISLE ROYALE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN PUSHING S OUT
OF W HUDSON BAY. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NW
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THEY MAY CLIP ISLE ROYALE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CAUGHT IN A COOLER N-NW FLOW
ALOFT BTWN A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NR JAMES BAY/WRN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY LOW INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WARRANT KEEPING CHC POPS IN FCST FOR
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD DIURNAL SHRA OVER THE INTERIOR CWA TUE INTO FRI.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS LIKE TUE WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA AND A
SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA INITIATION.
WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 300-600 J/KG RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN FCST...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL CWA. UNIDIRECTIONAL
0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS AND SKINNY CAPE DEPICTED ON FCST SNDGS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SVR STORMS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY LATE WEEK ON
EXACT TIMING/MODEL RESOLUTION OF SHORTWAVES. ALSO A SFC RDG RESIDING
OVER THE AREA MAY INHIBIT SHRA DEVELOPMENT SO WILL JUST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA WED AND FRI. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS PATTERN DUE TO LACK OF GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION AND PWATS REMAINING GENERALLY BTWN 65-90 PCT OF NORMAL
THRU PD.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH TROUGH
GRADUALLY WEAKENING PUSHING EAST OF THE UPPER LAKES BY LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FM THE NRN PLAINS. OVERALL...WOULD
EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL AS 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND TO 12-14C BY LATE
SUNDAY. DUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE RIDGING ALOFT...EXPECT ONLY DIURNAL
ISOLD SHRA DEVELOPMENT AT BEST...MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AS DRIER AIRMASS
IN ONTARIO SLIDES TO THE S. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON MON
AFTN AND POSSIBLY EVEN A -SHRA LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE APRCH OF A
DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE LLVLS WL BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ENSURE VFR WX EVEN IF A -SHRA IMPACTS ANY OF THE
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY END N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SE CORNER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THEN N PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY...SLOWLY
EXPANDING S. AS THE LOW MOVES/DEEPENS ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR THE WEAK TROUGH TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KGRR 272325 AAB
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WE WILL SHORTLY DROP THE REMAINDER OF OUR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AS THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE AREA OF MIX
LAYER CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. ALSO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CONVECTION
EARLIER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR LANSING. SO I
WOULD EXPECT THESE STORMS TO WEAKEN.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 272325 AAB
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WE WILL SHORTLY DROP THE REMAINDER OF OUR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AS THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE AREA OF MIX
LAYER CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. ALSO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CONVECTION
EARLIER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR LANSING. SO I
WOULD EXPECT THESE STORMS TO WEAKEN.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 272325 AAB
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WE WILL SHORTLY DROP THE REMAINDER OF OUR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AS THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE AREA OF MIX
LAYER CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. ALSO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CONVECTION
EARLIER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR LANSING. SO I
WOULD EXPECT THESE STORMS TO WEAKEN.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 272325 AAB
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WE WILL SHORTLY DROP THE REMAINDER OF OUR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AS THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE AREA OF MIX
LAYER CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. ALSO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CONVECTION
EARLIER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR LANSING. SO I
WOULD EXPECT THESE STORMS TO WEAKEN.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KAPX 272321
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
721 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MAINLY VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THRU
00Z TUESDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SLIDE THRU
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KAPX 272321
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
721 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MAINLY VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THRU
00Z TUESDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SLIDE THRU
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KAPX 272321
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
721 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MAINLY VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THRU
00Z TUESDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SLIDE THRU
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KAPX 272321
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
721 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MAINLY VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THRU
00Z TUESDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SLIDE THRU
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KDTX 272252
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH AREA EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN DURING THE
EVENING AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS WAVE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
STRATUS AS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION.
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT/ERODE WITHIN STRONG
MIXING ON MONDAY AS NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE.
EXPECT SCT CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH MVFR TO LOWER VFR BKN
CIGS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...TSRAS WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF TERMINAL THROUGH 01Z OR
02Z BEFORE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SHRAS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS DEFORMATION WRAPS AROUND THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z-02Z THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 272146
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
546 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BEST INSTABILITY...OVER 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW
EAST OF US-131 AND THE AREA OF EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR OVER 30
KNOTS IS ALSO NOW EAST OF US-131. SO I EXPECT THE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF US-131 AFTER 6 PM. AS A RESULT I WILL DROP
THE WESTERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH BY 6 PM. MEANWHILE
WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING I ADDITION STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 272005
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE CLEARING LINE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF MN AND ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO SINK S ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE SFC
LOW HAS SHIFTED ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH TRAILING
ACROSS E UPPER MI THROUGH SE WI. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO STICK
AROUND TOO MUCH LONGER. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS LINGERING BEHIND THE DRY
AIR SHIFTING IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. PW VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 1.15IN /110-125 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ WILL FALL TO AROUND
0.5-0.6IN BY 06Z MONDAY /50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. KEPT WITH THE
LOWER TEMP GUIDANCE STILL FOR TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL OF OUR
TYPICALLY COOL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE N PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDS IT/S REACH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE MORNING ON. WENT MINIMAL ON THE CLOUDS
FOR NOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR ISLE ROYALE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN PUSHING S OUT
OF W HUDSON BAY. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NW
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THEY MAY CLIP ISLE ROYALE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CAUGHT IN A COOLER N-NW FLOW
ALOFT BTWN A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NR JAMES BAY/WRN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY LOW INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WARRANT KEEPING CHC POPS IN FCST FOR
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD DIURNAL SHRA OVER THE INTERIOR CWA TUE INTO FRI.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS LIKE TUE WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA AND A
SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA INITIATION.
WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 300-600 J/KG RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN FCST...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL CWA. UNIDIRECTIONAL
0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS AND SKINNY CAPE DEPICTED ON FCST SNDGS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SVR STORMS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY LATE WEEK ON
EXACT TIMING/MODEL RESOLUTION OF SHORTWAVES. ALSO A SFC RDG RESIDING
OVER THE AREA MAY INHIBIT SHRA DEVELOPMENT SO WILL JUST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA WED AND FRI. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS PATTERN DUE TO LACK OF GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION AND PWATS REMAINING GENERALLY BTWN 65-90 PCT OF NORMAL
THRU PD.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH TROUGH
GRADUALLY WEAKENING PUSHING EAST OF THE UPPER LAKES BY LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FM THE NRN PLAINS. OVERALL...WOULD
EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL AS 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND TO 12-14C BY LATE
SUNDAY. DUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE RIDGING ALOFT...EXPECT ONLY DIURNAL
ISOLD SHRA DEVELOPMENT AT BEST...MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE IFR CEILINGS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MN...AND SPLIT ISLE ROYAL IN HALF. LOOK
FOR THE LINE TO CROSS ALL 3 TAF SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO
00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY END N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SE CORNER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THEN N PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY...SLOWLY
EXPANDING S. AS THE LOW MOVES/DEEPENS ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR THE WEAK TROUGH TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 272005
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE CLEARING LINE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF MN AND ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO SINK S ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE SFC
LOW HAS SHIFTED ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH TRAILING
ACROSS E UPPER MI THROUGH SE WI. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO STICK
AROUND TOO MUCH LONGER. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS LINGERING BEHIND THE DRY
AIR SHIFTING IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. PW VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 1.15IN /110-125 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ WILL FALL TO AROUND
0.5-0.6IN BY 06Z MONDAY /50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. KEPT WITH THE
LOWER TEMP GUIDANCE STILL FOR TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL OF OUR
TYPICALLY COOL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE N PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDS IT/S REACH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE MORNING ON. WENT MINIMAL ON THE CLOUDS
FOR NOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR ISLE ROYALE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN PUSHING S OUT
OF W HUDSON BAY. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NW
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THEY MAY CLIP ISLE ROYALE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CAUGHT IN A COOLER N-NW FLOW
ALOFT BTWN A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NR JAMES BAY/WRN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY LOW INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WARRANT KEEPING CHC POPS IN FCST FOR
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD DIURNAL SHRA OVER THE INTERIOR CWA TUE INTO FRI.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS LIKE TUE WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA AND A
SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA INITIATION.
WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 300-600 J/KG RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN FCST...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL CWA. UNIDIRECTIONAL
0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS AND SKINNY CAPE DEPICTED ON FCST SNDGS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SVR STORMS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY LATE WEEK ON
EXACT TIMING/MODEL RESOLUTION OF SHORTWAVES. ALSO A SFC RDG RESIDING
OVER THE AREA MAY INHIBIT SHRA DEVELOPMENT SO WILL JUST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA WED AND FRI. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS PATTERN DUE TO LACK OF GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION AND PWATS REMAINING GENERALLY BTWN 65-90 PCT OF NORMAL
THRU PD.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH TROUGH
GRADUALLY WEAKENING PUSHING EAST OF THE UPPER LAKES BY LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FM THE NRN PLAINS. OVERALL...WOULD
EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL AS 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND TO 12-14C BY LATE
SUNDAY. DUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE RIDGING ALOFT...EXPECT ONLY DIURNAL
ISOLD SHRA DEVELOPMENT AT BEST...MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE IFR CEILINGS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MN...AND SPLIT ISLE ROYAL IN HALF. LOOK
FOR THE LINE TO CROSS ALL 3 TAF SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO
00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY END N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SE CORNER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THEN N PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY...SLOWLY
EXPANDING S. AS THE LOW MOVES/DEEPENS ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR THE WEAK TROUGH TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KAPX 271942
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN IT/S WAKE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DRYING CONDITIONS BRING IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY
MONDAY.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR/MARGINAL MVFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH ALL VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER TOWARDS
00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORING.

WINDS: VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE MORNING ON MONDAY...INCREASING TO 10G20KTS BY LATE MORNING.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: PRIMARY THUNDER THREAT APN THROUGH 9PM...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE TVC/PLN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AT APN
DUE TO HAIL/STRONG WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT






000
FXUS63 KAPX 271942
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN IT/S WAKE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DRYING CONDITIONS BRING IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY
MONDAY.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR/MARGINAL MVFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH ALL VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER TOWARDS
00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORING.

WINDS: VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE MORNING ON MONDAY...INCREASING TO 10G20KTS BY LATE MORNING.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: PRIMARY THUNDER THREAT APN THROUGH 9PM...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE TVC/PLN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AT APN
DUE TO HAIL/STRONG WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271941
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE CLEARING LINE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF MN AND ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO SINK S ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE SFC
LOW HAS SHIFTED ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH TRAILING
ACROSS E UPPER MI THROUGH SE WI. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO STICK
AROUND TOO MUCH LONGER. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS LINGERING BEHIND THE DRY
AIR SHIFTING IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. PW VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 1.15IN /110-125 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ WILL FALL TO AROUND
0.5-0.6IN BY 06Z MONDAY /50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. KEPT WITH THE
LOWER TEMP GUIDANCE STILL FOR TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL OF OUR
TYPICALLY COOL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE N PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDS IT/S REACH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE MORNING ON. WENT MINIMAL ON THE CLOUDS
FOR NOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR ISLE ROYALE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN PUSHING S OUT
OF W HUDSON BAY. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NW
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THEY MAY CLIP ISLE ROYALE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE IFR CEILINGS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MN...AND SPLIT ISLE ROYAL IN HALF. LOOK
FOR THE LINE TO CROSS ALL 3 TAF SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO
00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY END N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SE CORNER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THEN N PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY...SLOWLY
EXPANDING S. AS THE LOW MOVES/DEEPENS ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR THE WEAK TROUGH TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271941
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE CLEARING LINE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF MN AND ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO SINK S ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE SFC
LOW HAS SHIFTED ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH TRAILING
ACROSS E UPPER MI THROUGH SE WI. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO STICK
AROUND TOO MUCH LONGER. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS LINGERING BEHIND THE DRY
AIR SHIFTING IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. PW VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 1.15IN /110-125 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ WILL FALL TO AROUND
0.5-0.6IN BY 06Z MONDAY /50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. KEPT WITH THE
LOWER TEMP GUIDANCE STILL FOR TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL OF OUR
TYPICALLY COOL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE N PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDS IT/S REACH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE MORNING ON. WENT MINIMAL ON THE CLOUDS
FOR NOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR ISLE ROYALE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN PUSHING S OUT
OF W HUDSON BAY. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NW
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THEY MAY CLIP ISLE ROYALE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE IFR CEILINGS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MN...AND SPLIT ISLE ROYAL IN HALF. LOOK
FOR THE LINE TO CROSS ALL 3 TAF SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO
00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY END N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SE CORNER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THEN N PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY...SLOWLY
EXPANDING S. AS THE LOW MOVES/DEEPENS ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR THE WEAK TROUGH TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271941
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE CLEARING LINE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF MN AND ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO SINK S ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE SFC
LOW HAS SHIFTED ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH TRAILING
ACROSS E UPPER MI THROUGH SE WI. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO STICK
AROUND TOO MUCH LONGER. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS LINGERING BEHIND THE DRY
AIR SHIFTING IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. PW VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 1.15IN /110-125 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ WILL FALL TO AROUND
0.5-0.6IN BY 06Z MONDAY /50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. KEPT WITH THE
LOWER TEMP GUIDANCE STILL FOR TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL OF OUR
TYPICALLY COOL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE N PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDS IT/S REACH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE MORNING ON. WENT MINIMAL ON THE CLOUDS
FOR NOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR ISLE ROYALE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN PUSHING S OUT
OF W HUDSON BAY. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NW
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THEY MAY CLIP ISLE ROYALE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE IFR CEILINGS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MN...AND SPLIT ISLE ROYAL IN HALF. LOOK
FOR THE LINE TO CROSS ALL 3 TAF SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO
00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY END N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SE CORNER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THEN N PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY...SLOWLY
EXPANDING S. AS THE LOW MOVES/DEEPENS ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR THE WEAK TROUGH TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271941
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE CLEARING LINE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF MN AND ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO SINK S ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE SFC
LOW HAS SHIFTED ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH TRAILING
ACROSS E UPPER MI THROUGH SE WI. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO STICK
AROUND TOO MUCH LONGER. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS LINGERING BEHIND THE DRY
AIR SHIFTING IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. PW VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 1.15IN /110-125 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ WILL FALL TO AROUND
0.5-0.6IN BY 06Z MONDAY /50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. KEPT WITH THE
LOWER TEMP GUIDANCE STILL FOR TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL OF OUR
TYPICALLY COOL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE N PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDS IT/S REACH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE MORNING ON. WENT MINIMAL ON THE CLOUDS
FOR NOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR ISLE ROYALE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN PUSHING S OUT
OF W HUDSON BAY. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NW
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THEY MAY CLIP ISLE ROYALE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE IFR CEILINGS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MN...AND SPLIT ISLE ROYAL IN HALF. LOOK
FOR THE LINE TO CROSS ALL 3 TAF SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO
00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY END N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SE CORNER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THEN N PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY...SLOWLY
EXPANDING S. AS THE LOW MOVES/DEEPENS ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR THE WEAK TROUGH TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KGRR 271924
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS






000
FXUS63 KDTX 271916
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 118 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY NEAR TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...ESPECIALLY FROM FNT SOUTH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM GAYLORD TO MUSKEGON AS OF 17Z AND
PUSHING EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR TSRA THREAT WILL BEGIN BY 18Z FOR MBS...19Z FOR
FNT/PTK...AND 20Z FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT IN INHERITED
3-HR TEMPO TO COVER THIS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME MVFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT.

FOR DTW...BEST TIME FRAME FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE 20-23Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SEVERE STORM COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL...WITH
LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS 07Z TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CIGS OF AOB 5KFT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 20KT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 271916
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 118 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY NEAR TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...ESPECIALLY FROM FNT SOUTH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM GAYLORD TO MUSKEGON AS OF 17Z AND
PUSHING EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR TSRA THREAT WILL BEGIN BY 18Z FOR MBS...19Z FOR
FNT/PTK...AND 20Z FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT IN INHERITED
3-HR TEMPO TO COVER THIS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME MVFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT.

FOR DTW...BEST TIME FRAME FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE 20-23Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SEVERE STORM COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL...WITH
LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS 07Z TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CIGS OF AOB 5KFT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 20KT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 271916
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 118 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY NEAR TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...ESPECIALLY FROM FNT SOUTH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM GAYLORD TO MUSKEGON AS OF 17Z AND
PUSHING EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR TSRA THREAT WILL BEGIN BY 18Z FOR MBS...19Z FOR
FNT/PTK...AND 20Z FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT IN INHERITED
3-HR TEMPO TO COVER THIS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME MVFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT.

FOR DTW...BEST TIME FRAME FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE 20-23Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SEVERE STORM COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL...WITH
LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS 07Z TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CIGS OF AOB 5KFT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 20KT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 271916
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 118 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY NEAR TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...ESPECIALLY FROM FNT SOUTH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM GAYLORD TO MUSKEGON AS OF 17Z AND
PUSHING EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR TSRA THREAT WILL BEGIN BY 18Z FOR MBS...19Z FOR
FNT/PTK...AND 20Z FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT IN INHERITED
3-HR TEMPO TO COVER THIS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME MVFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT.

FOR DTW...BEST TIME FRAME FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE 20-23Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SEVERE STORM COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL...WITH
LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS 07Z TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CIGS OF AOB 5KFT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 20KT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KGRR 271856
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVING IN. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS CHARACTERIZED WITH 2000 J/KG ML CAPE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS. THE CAPE IS HIGH IN THE -10
TO -30 DEG C LAYER. THUS THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS RISK EXISTS AS
WELL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS
GOING GIVEN THE CURRENT DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEBCAMS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG ON
THE LAKESHORE. THE ADVISORY FOR FOG WAS STRETCHED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY WILL
BREAK UP THE FOG.

HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH HAZARDS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO  MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...MJS
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS






000
FXUS63 KGRR 271856
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVING IN. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS CHARACTERIZED WITH 2000 J/KG ML CAPE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS. THE CAPE IS HIGH IN THE -10
TO -30 DEG C LAYER. THUS THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS RISK EXISTS AS
WELL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS
GOING GIVEN THE CURRENT DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEBCAMS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG ON
THE LAKESHORE. THE ADVISORY FOR FOG WAS STRETCHED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY WILL
BREAK UP THE FOG.

HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH HAZARDS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO  MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...MJS
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271807
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE FRONT-RUNNING MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. BEST
INSTABILITY LOCATED WELL TOT HE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER WI WITH
MUCAPES AT OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHERN
END OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTENSIFICATION
EARLY THIS AM AS THEY FEED ON MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

5H LOW TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE U.P.  BEST INSTABILITY AND 850-500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
THUS WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE ENDING
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE QUESTION. LATEST MODEL RUNS WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE PRECIPITATION OUT AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS TREND FOR THIS FORECAST. WITH DECENT 850-500 MB Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AND GRADUALLY BECOMES EASTERLY AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG OUT EAST WHERE
THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ENHANCES FOG PROBABILITIES. THE
FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS AM AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
N AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN AT THE SFC. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED A SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST AS 850 MB TEMPS
ONLY FALL OFF LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS SE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND DEPARTING
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
RELAY TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AD DRIER AIR WORKING IN WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THE MID 40S COMMON AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE IFR CEILINGS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MN...AND SPLIT ISLE ROYAL IN HALF. LOOK
FOR THE LINE TO CROSS ALL 3 TAF SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO
00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA TODAY...BRINGING
INCREASING WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING
AS HIGH AS 22 KTS...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH WINDS PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AT 20 KTS. WINDS TO GRADUALLY
RELAX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SPEEDS EVENTUALLY
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...RJT






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271807
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE FRONT-RUNNING MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. BEST
INSTABILITY LOCATED WELL TOT HE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER WI WITH
MUCAPES AT OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHERN
END OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTENSIFICATION
EARLY THIS AM AS THEY FEED ON MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

5H LOW TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE U.P.  BEST INSTABILITY AND 850-500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
THUS WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE ENDING
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE QUESTION. LATEST MODEL RUNS WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE PRECIPITATION OUT AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS TREND FOR THIS FORECAST. WITH DECENT 850-500 MB Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AND GRADUALLY BECOMES EASTERLY AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG OUT EAST WHERE
THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ENHANCES FOG PROBABILITIES. THE
FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS AM AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
N AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN AT THE SFC. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED A SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST AS 850 MB TEMPS
ONLY FALL OFF LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS SE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND DEPARTING
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
RELAY TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AD DRIER AIR WORKING IN WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THE MID 40S COMMON AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE IFR CEILINGS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MN...AND SPLIT ISLE ROYAL IN HALF. LOOK
FOR THE LINE TO CROSS ALL 3 TAF SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO
00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA TODAY...BRINGING
INCREASING WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING
AS HIGH AS 22 KTS...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH WINDS PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AT 20 KTS. WINDS TO GRADUALLY
RELAX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SPEEDS EVENTUALLY
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...RJT






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271807
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE FRONT-RUNNING MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. BEST
INSTABILITY LOCATED WELL TOT HE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER WI WITH
MUCAPES AT OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHERN
END OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTENSIFICATION
EARLY THIS AM AS THEY FEED ON MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

5H LOW TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE U.P.  BEST INSTABILITY AND 850-500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
THUS WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE ENDING
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE QUESTION. LATEST MODEL RUNS WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE PRECIPITATION OUT AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS TREND FOR THIS FORECAST. WITH DECENT 850-500 MB Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AND GRADUALLY BECOMES EASTERLY AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG OUT EAST WHERE
THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ENHANCES FOG PROBABILITIES. THE
FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS AM AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
N AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN AT THE SFC. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED A SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST AS 850 MB TEMPS
ONLY FALL OFF LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS SE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND DEPARTING
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
RELAY TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AD DRIER AIR WORKING IN WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THE MID 40S COMMON AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE IFR CEILINGS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MN...AND SPLIT ISLE ROYAL IN HALF. LOOK
FOR THE LINE TO CROSS ALL 3 TAF SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO
00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA TODAY...BRINGING
INCREASING WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING
AS HIGH AS 22 KTS...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH WINDS PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AT 20 KTS. WINDS TO GRADUALLY
RELAX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SPEEDS EVENTUALLY
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...RJT






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271807
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE FRONT-RUNNING MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. BEST
INSTABILITY LOCATED WELL TOT HE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER WI WITH
MUCAPES AT OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHERN
END OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTENSIFICATION
EARLY THIS AM AS THEY FEED ON MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

5H LOW TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE U.P.  BEST INSTABILITY AND 850-500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
THUS WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE ENDING
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE QUESTION. LATEST MODEL RUNS WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE PRECIPITATION OUT AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS TREND FOR THIS FORECAST. WITH DECENT 850-500 MB Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AND GRADUALLY BECOMES EASTERLY AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG OUT EAST WHERE
THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ENHANCES FOG PROBABILITIES. THE
FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS AM AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
N AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN AT THE SFC. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED A SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST AS 850 MB TEMPS
ONLY FALL OFF LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS SE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND DEPARTING
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
RELAY TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AD DRIER AIR WORKING IN WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THE MID 40S COMMON AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE IFR CEILINGS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MN...AND SPLIT ISLE ROYAL IN HALF. LOOK
FOR THE LINE TO CROSS ALL 3 TAF SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO
00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA TODAY...BRINGING
INCREASING WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING
AS HIGH AS 22 KTS...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH WINDS PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AT 20 KTS. WINDS TO GRADUALLY
RELAX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SPEEDS EVENTUALLY
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...RJT






000
FXUS63 KAPX 271745 AAC
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...MUCH COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS RETURNING INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATE TO ISSUE SVR WATCH 446 FOR HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT GIVEN
HISTORY OF CONVECTION AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SOUTH OF M-32 TODAY...

UPDATE TO ADD SOME HAIL/WIND WORDING TO MORNING FORECAST AS
INGREDIENTS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE BOWLING BALL MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE BRINGS WITH IT AN IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF QG
FORCING FOR ASCENT...AS WELL AS H5 WINDS TO 60 KTS. THICK MORNING
FOG REVEALS A SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
60 PLUS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...RAP BRINGS ML CAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PERCOLATING
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY /HAIL-WIND THREAT/. AGREE COMPLETELY WITH UPDATED
SLGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC.

UPDATED HWO TO BRING SVR RISK MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z SPC UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOUPY LLEVEL AIRMASS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IT IS LOCALLY
DENSE AND AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK
WHERE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF ADVANCING
THETAE RIDGE HAVE ARRIVED /ALTHOUGH THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY
OUTRUN THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY...COOL DOWN BEGINS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-55 TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CHANGES ARE OCCURRING...WITH
PROMINENT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES...WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SLIDES DOWN ITS NORTHEAST FLANK INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ALL IS PART
OF THAT WHOLE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONE THAT IS SET TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
UNSEASONABLE CHILL TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NOW...DESPITE SUCH
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES...REALLY A RATHER CALM OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR
AREA...COURTESY OF LOW AMP SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD
(ITSELF DRIVEN BY THAT ANOMALOUS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. KINDA FUNNY HOW IT ALL WORKS). HOWEVER...SUCH A BREAK WILL
BE A SHORT ONE...WITH STRONG AND DEEP LAYER UPSTREAM DYNAMICS
ALREADY KICKING OFF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ABOVE HAS ITS
SIGHTS SET ON OUR AREA TODAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN ALONG WITH IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION...
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: ITS GOING TO RAIN...WITH SOME HALFWAY DECENT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BEFORE EVERYTHING WRAPS UP LATER TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. COMBINATION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL SUPPORT/DEFORMATION ALONG/NORTH OF WAVE CENTER
AND DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL DO THE TRICK...DEVELOPING RATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...PULLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REMOVED TO THE SOUTH...BUT SIMPLE DYNAMICS
AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE SHOULD TIP THE SCALES TO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTH OF M-72. WHILE NEARLY EVERYTHING POINTS TO SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCE IS DEFINITELY NOT ZERO
FOR AREAS DOWN NEAR M-55 WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/AND
BEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR ARE COLLOCATED. INSTABILITY WILL BE
KEY...AND DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN. TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE...AND CAN EASILY
SEE SOME AREA EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT AS DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST.

TEMPERATURES A HEADACHE...AND WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON EXTENT AND
TIMING OF BETTER RAINS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IN NO WAY
MIMIC REALITY...BUT AS DAYTIME FORECASTER MENTIONED...COULD EASILY
SEE SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES. STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
BACKSIDE NORTH FLOW TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S...HELPING SET UP A CHILLY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...ANYONE SEEN SUMMER LATELY?...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. JUST SOME PESKY
SHOWER CHANCES ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
WILL MAKE A GLORIOUS RETURN (UNLESS YOU`RE A FAN OF ACTUAL SUMMER
WEATHER) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT WHOLE PROCESS IS
UNDERWAY AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN...COURTESY OF A QUITE STRONG
CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF A MUCH MORE BROAD CLOSED FEATURE UP ACROSS EAST HUDSON BAY. SAID
LEAD WAVE WILL ACT TO EFFECTIVELY CARVE OUT A RESPECTABLE DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AN INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE SPECIFICS...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: WELCOME FALL! WELL...MAYBE A LITTLE
EXTREME...WITH WITH H8 TEMPS PLUNGING INTO THE 4-6C RANGE ON GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...THINGS WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE MID
SEPTEMBER THAN THE LAST DAYS OF JULY. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS
WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING
ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
SOME SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY
SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS
OF HEATING AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON.

PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO
INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT SHOULD  COME LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER
MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND INCLUDE A LOWER
CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PROGGED
TO SPILL OVERHEAD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW
BOOST BACK THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF
ANY TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN IT/S WAKE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DRYING CONDITIONS BRING IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY
MONDAY.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR/MARGINAL MVFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH ALL VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER TOWARDS
00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORING.

WINDS: VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE MORNING ON MONDAY...INCREASING TO 10G20KTS BY LATE MORNING.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: PRIMARY THUNDER THREAT APN THROUGH 9PM...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE TVC/PLN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AT APN
DUE TO HAIL/STRONG WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIAL RATHER WEAK/DISORGANIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TIGHTENS UP NICELY TOWARDS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
STRONG CAA SUPPORTS DECREASING OVER-WATER STABILITY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE BIG WATERS.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
PULL THE TRIGGER ON ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...
WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DO SUCH ON LAKE HURON LATER TODAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...MSB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 271745 AAC
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...MUCH COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS RETURNING INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATE TO ISSUE SVR WATCH 446 FOR HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT GIVEN
HISTORY OF CONVECTION AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SOUTH OF M-32 TODAY...

UPDATE TO ADD SOME HAIL/WIND WORDING TO MORNING FORECAST AS
INGREDIENTS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE BOWLING BALL MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE BRINGS WITH IT AN IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF QG
FORCING FOR ASCENT...AS WELL AS H5 WINDS TO 60 KTS. THICK MORNING
FOG REVEALS A SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
60 PLUS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...RAP BRINGS ML CAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PERCOLATING
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY /HAIL-WIND THREAT/. AGREE COMPLETELY WITH UPDATED
SLGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC.

UPDATED HWO TO BRING SVR RISK MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z SPC UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOUPY LLEVEL AIRMASS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IT IS LOCALLY
DENSE AND AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK
WHERE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF ADVANCING
THETAE RIDGE HAVE ARRIVED /ALTHOUGH THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY
OUTRUN THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY...COOL DOWN BEGINS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-55 TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CHANGES ARE OCCURRING...WITH
PROMINENT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES...WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SLIDES DOWN ITS NORTHEAST FLANK INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ALL IS PART
OF THAT WHOLE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONE THAT IS SET TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
UNSEASONABLE CHILL TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NOW...DESPITE SUCH
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES...REALLY A RATHER CALM OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR
AREA...COURTESY OF LOW AMP SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD
(ITSELF DRIVEN BY THAT ANOMALOUS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. KINDA FUNNY HOW IT ALL WORKS). HOWEVER...SUCH A BREAK WILL
BE A SHORT ONE...WITH STRONG AND DEEP LAYER UPSTREAM DYNAMICS
ALREADY KICKING OFF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ABOVE HAS ITS
SIGHTS SET ON OUR AREA TODAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN ALONG WITH IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION...
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: ITS GOING TO RAIN...WITH SOME HALFWAY DECENT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BEFORE EVERYTHING WRAPS UP LATER TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. COMBINATION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL SUPPORT/DEFORMATION ALONG/NORTH OF WAVE CENTER
AND DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL DO THE TRICK...DEVELOPING RATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...PULLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REMOVED TO THE SOUTH...BUT SIMPLE DYNAMICS
AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE SHOULD TIP THE SCALES TO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTH OF M-72. WHILE NEARLY EVERYTHING POINTS TO SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCE IS DEFINITELY NOT ZERO
FOR AREAS DOWN NEAR M-55 WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/AND
BEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR ARE COLLOCATED. INSTABILITY WILL BE
KEY...AND DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN. TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE...AND CAN EASILY
SEE SOME AREA EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT AS DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST.

TEMPERATURES A HEADACHE...AND WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON EXTENT AND
TIMING OF BETTER RAINS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IN NO WAY
MIMIC REALITY...BUT AS DAYTIME FORECASTER MENTIONED...COULD EASILY
SEE SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES. STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
BACKSIDE NORTH FLOW TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S...HELPING SET UP A CHILLY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...ANYONE SEEN SUMMER LATELY?...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. JUST SOME PESKY
SHOWER CHANCES ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
WILL MAKE A GLORIOUS RETURN (UNLESS YOU`RE A FAN OF ACTUAL SUMMER
WEATHER) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT WHOLE PROCESS IS
UNDERWAY AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN...COURTESY OF A QUITE STRONG
CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF A MUCH MORE BROAD CLOSED FEATURE UP ACROSS EAST HUDSON BAY. SAID
LEAD WAVE WILL ACT TO EFFECTIVELY CARVE OUT A RESPECTABLE DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AN INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE SPECIFICS...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: WELCOME FALL! WELL...MAYBE A LITTLE
EXTREME...WITH WITH H8 TEMPS PLUNGING INTO THE 4-6C RANGE ON GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...THINGS WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE MID
SEPTEMBER THAN THE LAST DAYS OF JULY. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS
WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING
ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
SOME SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY
SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS
OF HEATING AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON.

PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO
INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT SHOULD  COME LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER
MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND INCLUDE A LOWER
CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PROGGED
TO SPILL OVERHEAD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW
BOOST BACK THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF
ANY TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN IT/S WAKE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DRYING CONDITIONS BRING IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY
MONDAY.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR/MARGINAL MVFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH ALL VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER TOWARDS
00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORING.

WINDS: VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE MORNING ON MONDAY...INCREASING TO 10G20KTS BY LATE MORNING.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: PRIMARY THUNDER THREAT APN THROUGH 9PM...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE TVC/PLN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AT APN
DUE TO HAIL/STRONG WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIAL RATHER WEAK/DISORGANIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TIGHTENS UP NICELY TOWARDS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
STRONG CAA SUPPORTS DECREASING OVER-WATER STABILITY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE BIG WATERS.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
PULL THE TRIGGER ON ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...
WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DO SUCH ON LAKE HURON LATER TODAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...MSB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 271745 AAC
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...MUCH COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS RETURNING INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATE TO ISSUE SVR WATCH 446 FOR HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT GIVEN
HISTORY OF CONVECTION AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SOUTH OF M-32 TODAY...

UPDATE TO ADD SOME HAIL/WIND WORDING TO MORNING FORECAST AS
INGREDIENTS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE BOWLING BALL MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE BRINGS WITH IT AN IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF QG
FORCING FOR ASCENT...AS WELL AS H5 WINDS TO 60 KTS. THICK MORNING
FOG REVEALS A SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
60 PLUS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...RAP BRINGS ML CAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PERCOLATING
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY /HAIL-WIND THREAT/. AGREE COMPLETELY WITH UPDATED
SLGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC.

UPDATED HWO TO BRING SVR RISK MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z SPC UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOUPY LLEVEL AIRMASS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IT IS LOCALLY
DENSE AND AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK
WHERE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF ADVANCING
THETAE RIDGE HAVE ARRIVED /ALTHOUGH THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY
OUTRUN THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY...COOL DOWN BEGINS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-55 TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CHANGES ARE OCCURRING...WITH
PROMINENT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES...WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SLIDES DOWN ITS NORTHEAST FLANK INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ALL IS PART
OF THAT WHOLE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONE THAT IS SET TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
UNSEASONABLE CHILL TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NOW...DESPITE SUCH
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES...REALLY A RATHER CALM OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR
AREA...COURTESY OF LOW AMP SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD
(ITSELF DRIVEN BY THAT ANOMALOUS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. KINDA FUNNY HOW IT ALL WORKS). HOWEVER...SUCH A BREAK WILL
BE A SHORT ONE...WITH STRONG AND DEEP LAYER UPSTREAM DYNAMICS
ALREADY KICKING OFF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ABOVE HAS ITS
SIGHTS SET ON OUR AREA TODAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN ALONG WITH IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION...
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: ITS GOING TO RAIN...WITH SOME HALFWAY DECENT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BEFORE EVERYTHING WRAPS UP LATER TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. COMBINATION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL SUPPORT/DEFORMATION ALONG/NORTH OF WAVE CENTER
AND DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL DO THE TRICK...DEVELOPING RATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...PULLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REMOVED TO THE SOUTH...BUT SIMPLE DYNAMICS
AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE SHOULD TIP THE SCALES TO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTH OF M-72. WHILE NEARLY EVERYTHING POINTS TO SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCE IS DEFINITELY NOT ZERO
FOR AREAS DOWN NEAR M-55 WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/AND
BEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR ARE COLLOCATED. INSTABILITY WILL BE
KEY...AND DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN. TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE...AND CAN EASILY
SEE SOME AREA EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT AS DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST.

TEMPERATURES A HEADACHE...AND WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON EXTENT AND
TIMING OF BETTER RAINS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IN NO WAY
MIMIC REALITY...BUT AS DAYTIME FORECASTER MENTIONED...COULD EASILY
SEE SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES. STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
BACKSIDE NORTH FLOW TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S...HELPING SET UP A CHILLY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...ANYONE SEEN SUMMER LATELY?...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. JUST SOME PESKY
SHOWER CHANCES ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
WILL MAKE A GLORIOUS RETURN (UNLESS YOU`RE A FAN OF ACTUAL SUMMER
WEATHER) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT WHOLE PROCESS IS
UNDERWAY AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN...COURTESY OF A QUITE STRONG
CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF A MUCH MORE BROAD CLOSED FEATURE UP ACROSS EAST HUDSON BAY. SAID
LEAD WAVE WILL ACT TO EFFECTIVELY CARVE OUT A RESPECTABLE DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AN INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE SPECIFICS...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: WELCOME FALL! WELL...MAYBE A LITTLE
EXTREME...WITH WITH H8 TEMPS PLUNGING INTO THE 4-6C RANGE ON GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...THINGS WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE MID
SEPTEMBER THAN THE LAST DAYS OF JULY. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS
WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING
ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
SOME SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY
SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS
OF HEATING AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON.

PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO
INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT SHOULD  COME LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER
MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND INCLUDE A LOWER
CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PROGGED
TO SPILL OVERHEAD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW
BOOST BACK THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF
ANY TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN IT/S WAKE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DRYING CONDITIONS BRING IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY
MONDAY.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR/MARGINAL MVFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH ALL VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER TOWARDS
00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORING.

WINDS: VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE MORNING ON MONDAY...INCREASING TO 10G20KTS BY LATE MORNING.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: PRIMARY THUNDER THREAT APN THROUGH 9PM...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE TVC/PLN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AT APN
DUE TO HAIL/STRONG WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIAL RATHER WEAK/DISORGANIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TIGHTENS UP NICELY TOWARDS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
STRONG CAA SUPPORTS DECREASING OVER-WATER STABILITY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE BIG WATERS.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
PULL THE TRIGGER ON ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...
WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DO SUCH ON LAKE HURON LATER TODAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...MSB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 271745 AAC
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...MUCH COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS RETURNING INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATE TO ISSUE SVR WATCH 446 FOR HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT GIVEN
HISTORY OF CONVECTION AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SOUTH OF M-32 TODAY...

UPDATE TO ADD SOME HAIL/WIND WORDING TO MORNING FORECAST AS
INGREDIENTS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE BOWLING BALL MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE BRINGS WITH IT AN IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF QG
FORCING FOR ASCENT...AS WELL AS H5 WINDS TO 60 KTS. THICK MORNING
FOG REVEALS A SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
60 PLUS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...RAP BRINGS ML CAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PERCOLATING
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY /HAIL-WIND THREAT/. AGREE COMPLETELY WITH UPDATED
SLGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC.

UPDATED HWO TO BRING SVR RISK MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z SPC UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOUPY LLEVEL AIRMASS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IT IS LOCALLY
DENSE AND AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK
WHERE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF ADVANCING
THETAE RIDGE HAVE ARRIVED /ALTHOUGH THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY
OUTRUN THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY...COOL DOWN BEGINS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-55 TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CHANGES ARE OCCURRING...WITH
PROMINENT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES...WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SLIDES DOWN ITS NORTHEAST FLANK INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ALL IS PART
OF THAT WHOLE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONE THAT IS SET TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
UNSEASONABLE CHILL TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NOW...DESPITE SUCH
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES...REALLY A RATHER CALM OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR
AREA...COURTESY OF LOW AMP SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD
(ITSELF DRIVEN BY THAT ANOMALOUS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. KINDA FUNNY HOW IT ALL WORKS). HOWEVER...SUCH A BREAK WILL
BE A SHORT ONE...WITH STRONG AND DEEP LAYER UPSTREAM DYNAMICS
ALREADY KICKING OFF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ABOVE HAS ITS
SIGHTS SET ON OUR AREA TODAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN ALONG WITH IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION...
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: ITS GOING TO RAIN...WITH SOME HALFWAY DECENT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BEFORE EVERYTHING WRAPS UP LATER TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. COMBINATION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL SUPPORT/DEFORMATION ALONG/NORTH OF WAVE CENTER
AND DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL DO THE TRICK...DEVELOPING RATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...PULLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REMOVED TO THE SOUTH...BUT SIMPLE DYNAMICS
AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE SHOULD TIP THE SCALES TO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTH OF M-72. WHILE NEARLY EVERYTHING POINTS TO SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCE IS DEFINITELY NOT ZERO
FOR AREAS DOWN NEAR M-55 WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/AND
BEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR ARE COLLOCATED. INSTABILITY WILL BE
KEY...AND DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN. TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE...AND CAN EASILY
SEE SOME AREA EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT AS DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST.

TEMPERATURES A HEADACHE...AND WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON EXTENT AND
TIMING OF BETTER RAINS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IN NO WAY
MIMIC REALITY...BUT AS DAYTIME FORECASTER MENTIONED...COULD EASILY
SEE SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES. STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
BACKSIDE NORTH FLOW TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S...HELPING SET UP A CHILLY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...ANYONE SEEN SUMMER LATELY?...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. JUST SOME PESKY
SHOWER CHANCES ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
WILL MAKE A GLORIOUS RETURN (UNLESS YOU`RE A FAN OF ACTUAL SUMMER
WEATHER) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT WHOLE PROCESS IS
UNDERWAY AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN...COURTESY OF A QUITE STRONG
CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF A MUCH MORE BROAD CLOSED FEATURE UP ACROSS EAST HUDSON BAY. SAID
LEAD WAVE WILL ACT TO EFFECTIVELY CARVE OUT A RESPECTABLE DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AN INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE SPECIFICS...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: WELCOME FALL! WELL...MAYBE A LITTLE
EXTREME...WITH WITH H8 TEMPS PLUNGING INTO THE 4-6C RANGE ON GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...THINGS WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE MID
SEPTEMBER THAN THE LAST DAYS OF JULY. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS
WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING
ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
SOME SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY
SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS
OF HEATING AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON.

PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO
INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT SHOULD  COME LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER
MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND INCLUDE A LOWER
CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PROGGED
TO SPILL OVERHEAD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW
BOOST BACK THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF
ANY TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN IT/S WAKE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DRYING CONDITIONS BRING IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY
MONDAY.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR/MARGINAL MVFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH ALL VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER TOWARDS
00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORING.

WINDS: VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE MORNING ON MONDAY...INCREASING TO 10G20KTS BY LATE MORNING.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: PRIMARY THUNDER THREAT APN THROUGH 9PM...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE TVC/PLN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AT APN
DUE TO HAIL/STRONG WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIAL RATHER WEAK/DISORGANIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TIGHTENS UP NICELY TOWARDS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
STRONG CAA SUPPORTS DECREASING OVER-WATER STABILITY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE BIG WATERS.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
PULL THE TRIGGER ON ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...
WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DO SUCH ON LAKE HURON LATER TODAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...MSB






000
FXUS63 KDTX 271718
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
118 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY NEAR TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...ESPECIALLY FROM FNT SOUTH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM GAYLORD TO MUSKEGON AS OF 17Z AND
PUSHING EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR TSRA THREAT WILL BEGIN BY 18Z FOR MBS...19Z FOR
FNT/PTK...AND 20Z FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT IN INHERITED
3-HR TEMPO TO COVER THIS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME MVFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT.

FOR DTW...BEST TIME FRAME FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE 20-23Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SEVERE STORM COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL...WITH
LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS 07Z TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CIGS OF AOB 5KFT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 20KT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1013 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAS HELP SHORTEN OUR WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE...AS ACCELERATING HEIGHT FALLS ARE
NOW OCCURRING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...IF ANY SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF CLEARING
OCCURS...THE RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVELS/DYNAMIC FORCING STILL
COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE CELLS TO DEVELOP. ZONES IN
DECENT SHAPE AND ANY UPDATE WILL BE MINOR REVISIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO MICHIGAN BY 00Z/8PM TODAY.
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BY 15Z/10AM...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS THE
THUMB...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WISCONSIN. BOTH
FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE...PULLING A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEHIND IT...AND LIKELY BRINGING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WHOLE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START TODAY WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS FOR ML/SB CAPE LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES BETWEEN 14-15Z (PER NAM
SOUNDINGS). THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET...100
KNOTS...THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A STRONGER CORE
OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL STILL INCREASE
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS IT
BRUSHES BY. ALTHOUGH 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW...UNDER 10
KNOTS...0-6KM SHEAR WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40-45 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE THREAT WILL HOWEVER DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID/LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY 8 PM...WITH THE
THREAT NORTH OF I-69 LOOKING TO TAPER OFF BY 5 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH FAT CAPE AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS WELL AS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR. SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A N-S
TRANSITION TO TALL AND SKINNY CAPE AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN AT THE
LOWER-LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES REMAIN UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME RAIN (WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AT THE MID-LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED
AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM UP AROUND 80...WHICH WILL
FEEL MUGGY WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/RAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 10C. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OF
MODERATION EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS INSTABILITY
IN THE COOL AIR MASS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
EXIT EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AROUND 700 MB TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO ABOUT 800
MB OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GOOD FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE
CUMULUS BUT NO RAIN. FORECASTS OF 850 MB TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 7C
SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY
70 IN THE DETROIT AREA TO OHIO BORDER...FAVORING BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE RECORDS FOR COOLEST MAX TEMPS ON
JULY 28TH: DTW 68/1926...FNT 64/1981...MBS 60/1981.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TENDENCY FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE
REDUCED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...WELL AGREED UPON IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL SHARPEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH FOR MBS LOOKS REACHABLE AT
48/1965 AND EVEN FOR DTW 50/1971 BUT NOT FNT AT 42/1928.

CONTINUED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 MB DEWPOINT IS SHOWN TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
EXTENDING ABOVE -20C BUT ARE OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S WOULD SEEM LIKE A STRETCH IF NOT FOR THE EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS SOLID UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT WILL PERSIST EACH DAY...BUT WITH SLUGS OF DRY AIR AND
NEUTRAL FLOW MODULATING ACTIVITY.

MARINE...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE
WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
UPDATE.......SF
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KGRR 271706
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
106 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS
GOING GIVEN THE CURRENT DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEBCAMS AND VISIBILE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG ON
THE LAKESHORE. THE ADVISORY FOR FOG WAS STRETCHED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY WILL
BREAK UP THE FOG.

HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH HAZARDS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO  MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 271706
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
106 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS
GOING GIVEN THE CURRENT DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEBCAMS AND VISIBILE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG ON
THE LAKESHORE. THE ADVISORY FOR FOG WAS STRETCHED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY WILL
BREAK UP THE FOG.

HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH HAZARDS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO  MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS






000
FXUS63 KGRR 271545
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION/UPDATE/MARINE

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THINKING THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY BY 18Z.
ALREADY FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR BIGGER HAIL...GOOD CAPE IN THE
-10 TO -30 DEG C LAYER AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXITS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE NOW IN
WI...ADVANCING STEADILY EAST SOUTHEAST. INLAND LOCATIONS LIKE MOP
TO LAN TO JXN SEEM MOST VULNERABLE...BUT EVEN GRR AND AZO NOT OUT
OF THE THREAT AT THIS TIME. BY 22Z...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF LAN AND JXN.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS
GOING GIVEN THE CURRENT DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OR
THROUGH 15Z TO 16Z. BY MIDDAY...EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HEAD INTO THE EVENING.
VFR WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MVFR CLOUDS SAG BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN INTO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF MOST PREVALENT STORMS
SHOULD BE BETWEEN 16Z AND 23Z ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY REMAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT HAVE VCTS IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOCATION OF
THE STORMS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEBCAMS AND VISIBILE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG ON
THE LAKESHORE. THE ADVISORY FOR FOG WAS STRETCHED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY WILL
BREAK UP THE FOG.

HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH HAZARDS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO  MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...MJS
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 271545
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION/UPDATE/MARINE

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THINKING THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY BY 18Z.
ALREADY FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR BIGGER HAIL...GOOD CAPE IN THE
-10 TO -30 DEG C LAYER AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXITS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE NOW IN
WI...ADVANCING STEADILY EAST SOUTHEAST. INLAND LOCATIONS LIKE MOP
TO LAN TO JXN SEEM MOST VULNERABLE...BUT EVEN GRR AND AZO NOT OUT
OF THE THREAT AT THIS TIME. BY 22Z...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF LAN AND JXN.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS
GOING GIVEN THE CURRENT DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OR
THROUGH 15Z TO 16Z. BY MIDDAY...EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HEAD INTO THE EVENING.
VFR WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MVFR CLOUDS SAG BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN INTO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF MOST PREVALENT STORMS
SHOULD BE BETWEEN 16Z AND 23Z ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY REMAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT HAVE VCTS IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOCATION OF
THE STORMS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEBCAMS AND VISIBILE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG ON
THE LAKESHORE. THE ADVISORY FOR FOG WAS STRETCHED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY WILL
BREAK UP THE FOG.

HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH HAZARDS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO  MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...MJS
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS






000
FXUS63 KDTX 271413
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1013 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAS HELP SHORTEN OUR WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE...AS ACCELERATING HEIGHT FALLS ARE
NOW OCCURRING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...IF ANY SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF CLEARING
OCCURS...THE RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVELS/DYNAMIC FORCING STILL
COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE CELLS TO DEVELOP. ZONES IN
DECENT SHAPE AND ANY UPDATE WILL BE MINOR REVISIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 725 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE FOG AND LOW
CEILING DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THEN THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

VLIFR/LIFR RESTRICTION IN FOG/STRATUS IS THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A TYPICAL
PACE OF IMPROVEMENT ON THE FOG/STRATUS AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING
GETS UNDERWAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CLUSTERS THAT WILL LIKELY
AFFECT MBS FIRST AND THEN QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND MVFR STRATUS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER SE MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND WILL
STAY UP FROM THE NORTH AND THEN GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... VISIBILITY WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL UPWARD IMPROVEMENT CYCLE
AS FOG LIFTS TO LOW STRATUS AND THEN MIXES OUT TOWARD NOON. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS MUCH ON TIMING OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY/POTENTIAL SEVERITY. THE
LATE AFTERNOON WINDOW OFFERED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
REFINED AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND CEILING LESS
  THAN 200 FEET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO MICHIGAN BY 00Z/8PM TODAY.
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BY 15Z/10AM...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS THE
THUMB...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WISCONSIN. BOTH
FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE...PULLING A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEHIND IT...AND LIKELY BRINGING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WHOLE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START TODAY WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS FOR ML/SB CAPE LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES BETWEEN 14-15Z (PER NAM
SOUNDINGS). THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET...100
KNOTS...THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A STRONGER CORE
OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL STILL INCREASE
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS IT
BRUSHES BY. ALTHOUGH 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW...UNDER 10
KNOTS...0-6KM SHEAR WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40-45 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE THREAT WILL HOWEVER DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID/LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY 8 PM...WITH THE
THREAT NORTH OF I-69 LOOKING TO TAPER OFF BY 5 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH FAT CAPE AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS WELL AS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR. SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A N-S
TRANSITION TO TALL AND SKINNY CAPE AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN AT THE
LOWER-LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES REMAIN UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME RAIN (WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AT THE MID-LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED
AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM UP AROUND 80...WHICH WILL
FEEL MUGGY WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/RAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 10C. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OF
MODERATION EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS INSTABILITY
IN THE COOL AIR MASS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
EXIT EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AROUND 700 MB TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO ABOUT 800
MB OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GOOD FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE
CUMULUS BUT NO RAIN. FORECASTS OF 850 MB TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 7C
SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY
70 IN THE DETROIT AREA TO OHIO BORDER...FAVORING BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE RECORDS FOR COOLEST MAX TEMPS ON
JULY 28TH: DTW 68/1926...FNT 64/1981...MBS 60/1981.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TENDENCY FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE
REDUCED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...WELL AGREED UPON IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL SHARPEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH FOR MBS LOOKS REACHABLE AT
48/1965 AND EVEN FOR DTW 50/1971 BUT NOT FNT AT 42/1928.

CONTINUED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 MB DEWPOINT IS SHOWN TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
EXTENDING ABOVE -20C BUT ARE OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S WOULD SEEM LIKE A STRETCH IF NOT FOR THE EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS SOLID UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT WILL PERSIST EACH DAY...BUT WITH SLUGS OF DRY AIR AND
NEUTRAL FLOW MODULATING ACTIVITY.

MARINE...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE
WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 271413
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1013 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAS HELP SHORTEN OUR WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE...AS ACCELERATING HEIGHT FALLS ARE
NOW OCCURRING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...IF ANY SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF CLEARING
OCCURS...THE RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVELS/DYNAMIC FORCING STILL
COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE CELLS TO DEVELOP. ZONES IN
DECENT SHAPE AND ANY UPDATE WILL BE MINOR REVISIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 725 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE FOG AND LOW
CEILING DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THEN THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

VLIFR/LIFR RESTRICTION IN FOG/STRATUS IS THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A TYPICAL
PACE OF IMPROVEMENT ON THE FOG/STRATUS AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING
GETS UNDERWAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CLUSTERS THAT WILL LIKELY
AFFECT MBS FIRST AND THEN QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND MVFR STRATUS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER SE MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND WILL
STAY UP FROM THE NORTH AND THEN GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... VISIBILITY WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL UPWARD IMPROVEMENT CYCLE
AS FOG LIFTS TO LOW STRATUS AND THEN MIXES OUT TOWARD NOON. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS MUCH ON TIMING OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY/POTENTIAL SEVERITY. THE
LATE AFTERNOON WINDOW OFFERED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
REFINED AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND CEILING LESS
  THAN 200 FEET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO MICHIGAN BY 00Z/8PM TODAY.
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BY 15Z/10AM...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS THE
THUMB...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WISCONSIN. BOTH
FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE...PULLING A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEHIND IT...AND LIKELY BRINGING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WHOLE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START TODAY WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS FOR ML/SB CAPE LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES BETWEEN 14-15Z (PER NAM
SOUNDINGS). THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET...100
KNOTS...THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A STRONGER CORE
OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL STILL INCREASE
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS IT
BRUSHES BY. ALTHOUGH 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW...UNDER 10
KNOTS...0-6KM SHEAR WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40-45 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE THREAT WILL HOWEVER DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID/LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY 8 PM...WITH THE
THREAT NORTH OF I-69 LOOKING TO TAPER OFF BY 5 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH FAT CAPE AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS WELL AS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR. SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A N-S
TRANSITION TO TALL AND SKINNY CAPE AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN AT THE
LOWER-LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES REMAIN UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME RAIN (WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AT THE MID-LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED
AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM UP AROUND 80...WHICH WILL
FEEL MUGGY WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/RAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 10C. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OF
MODERATION EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS INSTABILITY
IN THE COOL AIR MASS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
EXIT EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AROUND 700 MB TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO ABOUT 800
MB OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GOOD FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE
CUMULUS BUT NO RAIN. FORECASTS OF 850 MB TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 7C
SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY
70 IN THE DETROIT AREA TO OHIO BORDER...FAVORING BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE RECORDS FOR COOLEST MAX TEMPS ON
JULY 28TH: DTW 68/1926...FNT 64/1981...MBS 60/1981.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TENDENCY FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE
REDUCED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...WELL AGREED UPON IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL SHARPEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH FOR MBS LOOKS REACHABLE AT
48/1965 AND EVEN FOR DTW 50/1971 BUT NOT FNT AT 42/1928.

CONTINUED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 MB DEWPOINT IS SHOWN TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
EXTENDING ABOVE -20C BUT ARE OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S WOULD SEEM LIKE A STRETCH IF NOT FOR THE EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS SOLID UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT WILL PERSIST EACH DAY...BUT WITH SLUGS OF DRY AIR AND
NEUTRAL FLOW MODULATING ACTIVITY.

MARINE...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE
WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KGRR 271344
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OR
THROUGH 15Z TO 16Z. BY MIDDAY...EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HEAD INTO THE EVENING.
VFR WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MVFR CLOUDS SAG BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN INTO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF MOST PREVALENT STORMS
SHOULD BE BETWEEN 16Z AND 23Z ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY REMAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT HAVE VCTS IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOCATION OF
THE STORMS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.
THIS SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN A BIG JUMP IN WAVE HEIGHTS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
MONDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE LONG SHORE AND STRUCTURAL
CURRENTS THAT WILL MAKE SWIMMING HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH
SIDES OF PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 271344
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OR
THROUGH 15Z TO 16Z. BY MIDDAY...EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HEAD INTO THE EVENING.
VFR WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MVFR CLOUDS SAG BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN INTO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF MOST PREVALENT STORMS
SHOULD BE BETWEEN 16Z AND 23Z ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY REMAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT HAVE VCTS IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOCATION OF
THE STORMS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.
THIS SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN A BIG JUMP IN WAVE HEIGHTS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
MONDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE LONG SHORE AND STRUCTURAL
CURRENTS THAT WILL MAKE SWIMMING HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH
SIDES OF PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93






000
FXUS63 KAPX 271252 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...MUCH COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS RETURNING INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SOUTH OF M-32 TODAY...

UPDATE TO ADD SOME HAIL/WIND WORDING TO MORNING FORECAST AS
INGREDIENTS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE BOWLING BALL MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE BRINGS WITH IT AN IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF QG
FORCING FOR ASCENT...AS WELL AS H5 WINDS TO 60 KTS. THICK MORNING
FOG REVEALS A SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
60 PLUS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...RAP BRINGS ML CAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PERCOLATING
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY /HAIL-WIND THREAT/. AGREE COMPLETELY WITH UPDATED
SLGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC.

UPDATED HWO TO BRING SVR RISK MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z SPC UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOUPY LLEVEL AIRMASS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IT IS LOCALLY
DENSE AND AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK
WHERE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF ADVANCING
THETAE RIDGE HAVE ARRIVED /ALTHOUGH THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY
OUTRUN THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY...COOL DOWN BEGINS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-55 TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CHANGES ARE OCCURRING...WITH
PROMINENT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES...WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SLIDES DOWN ITS NORTHEAST FLANK INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ALL IS PART
OF THAT WHOLE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONE THAT IS SET TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
UNSEASONABLE CHILL TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NOW...DESPITE SUCH
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES...REALLY A RATHER CALM OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR
AREA...COURTESY OF LOW AMP SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD
(ITSELF DRIVEN BY THAT ANOMALOUS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. KINDA FUNNY HOW IT ALL WORKS). HOWEVER...SUCH A BREAK WILL
BE A SHORT ONE...WITH STRONG AND DEEP LAYER UPSTREAM DYNAMICS
ALREADY KICKING OFF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ABOVE HAS ITS
SIGHTS SET ON OUR AREA TODAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN ALONG WITH IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION...
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: ITS GOING TO RAIN...WITH SOME HALFWAY DECENT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BEFORE EVERYTHING WRAPS UP LATER TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. COMBINATION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL SUPPORT/DEFORMATION ALONG/NORTH OF WAVE CENTER
AND DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL DO THE TRICK...DEVELOPING RATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...PULLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REMOVED TO THE SOUTH...BUT SIMPLE DYNAMICS
AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE SHOULD TIP THE SCALES TO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTH OF M-72. WHILE NEARLY EVERYTHING POINTS TO SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCE IS DEFINITELY NOT ZERO
FOR AREAS DOWN NEAR M-55 WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/AND
BEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR ARE COLLOCATED. INSTABILITY WILL BE
KEY...AND DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN. TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE...AND CAN EASILY
SEE SOME AREA EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT AS DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST.

TEMPERATURES A HEADACHE...AND WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON EXTENT AND
TIMING OF BETTER RAINS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IN NO WAY
MIMIC REALITY...BUT AS DAYTIME FORECASTER MENTIONED...COULD EASILY
SEE SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES. STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
BACKSIDE NORTH FLOW TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S...HELPING SET UP A CHILLY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...ANYONE SEEN SUMMER LATELY?...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. JUST SOME PESKY
SHOWER CHANCES ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
WILL MAKE A GLORIOUS RETURN (UNLESS YOU`RE A FAN OF ACTUAL SUMMER
WEATHER) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT WHOLE PROCESS IS
UNDERWAY AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN...COURTESY OF A QUITE STRONG
CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF A MUCH MORE BROAD CLOSED FEATURE UP ACROSS EAST HUDSON BAY. SAID
LEAD WAVE WILL ACT TO EFFECTIVELY CARVE OUT A RESPECTABLE DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AN INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE SPECIFICS...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: WELCOME FALL! WELL...MAYBE A LITTLE
EXTREME...WITH WITH H8 TEMPS PLUNGING INTO THE 4-6C RANGE ON GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...THINGS WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE MID
SEPTEMBER THAN THE LAST DAYS OF JULY. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS
WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING
ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
SOME SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY
SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS
OF HEATING AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON.

PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO
INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT SHOULD  COME LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER
MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND INCLUDE A LOWER
CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PROGGED
TO SPILL OVERHEAD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW
BOOST BACK THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF
ANY TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW T-STORMS FOR
THE TERMINAL SITES.

FIRST WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH SOME MORNING FOG THAT IS IMPACTING
PLN/TVC/MBL AND MAY STILL IMPACT APN BEFORE BURNING OFF BY MID
MORNING. A MORE WIDESPREAD AXIS OF LOWER CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
WORKS SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THAT
SETUP SHOULD ALSO BRING A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST FROM THE
NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SKIES LIKELY
TO END UP CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS JUST AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE BUT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS...GETTING A LITTLE MORE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AROUND MBL AND TVS (CLOSER TO THE WATER)
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIAL RATHER WEAK/DISORGANIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TIGHTENS UP NICELY TOWARDS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
STRONG CAA SUPPORTS DECREASING OVER-WATER STABILITY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE BIG WATERS.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
PULL THE TRIGGER ON ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...
WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DO SUCH ON LAKE HURON LATER TODAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...LAWRENCE/ARNOTT
MARINE...MSB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 271252 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...MUCH COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS RETURNING INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SOUTH OF M-32 TODAY...

UPDATE TO ADD SOME HAIL/WIND WORDING TO MORNING FORECAST AS
INGREDIENTS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE BOWLING BALL MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE BRINGS WITH IT AN IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF QG
FORCING FOR ASCENT...AS WELL AS H5 WINDS TO 60 KTS. THICK MORNING
FOG REVEALS A SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
60 PLUS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...RAP BRINGS ML CAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PERCOLATING
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY /HAIL-WIND THREAT/. AGREE COMPLETELY WITH UPDATED
SLGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC.

UPDATED HWO TO BRING SVR RISK MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z SPC UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOUPY LLEVEL AIRMASS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IT IS LOCALLY
DENSE AND AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK
WHERE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF ADVANCING
THETAE RIDGE HAVE ARRIVED /ALTHOUGH THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY
OUTRUN THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY...COOL DOWN BEGINS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-55 TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CHANGES ARE OCCURRING...WITH
PROMINENT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES...WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SLIDES DOWN ITS NORTHEAST FLANK INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ALL IS PART
OF THAT WHOLE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONE THAT IS SET TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
UNSEASONABLE CHILL TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NOW...DESPITE SUCH
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES...REALLY A RATHER CALM OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR
AREA...COURTESY OF LOW AMP SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD
(ITSELF DRIVEN BY THAT ANOMALOUS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. KINDA FUNNY HOW IT ALL WORKS). HOWEVER...SUCH A BREAK WILL
BE A SHORT ONE...WITH STRONG AND DEEP LAYER UPSTREAM DYNAMICS
ALREADY KICKING OFF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ABOVE HAS ITS
SIGHTS SET ON OUR AREA TODAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN ALONG WITH IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION...
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: ITS GOING TO RAIN...WITH SOME HALFWAY DECENT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BEFORE EVERYTHING WRAPS UP LATER TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. COMBINATION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL SUPPORT/DEFORMATION ALONG/NORTH OF WAVE CENTER
AND DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL DO THE TRICK...DEVELOPING RATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...PULLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REMOVED TO THE SOUTH...BUT SIMPLE DYNAMICS
AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE SHOULD TIP THE SCALES TO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTH OF M-72. WHILE NEARLY EVERYTHING POINTS TO SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCE IS DEFINITELY NOT ZERO
FOR AREAS DOWN NEAR M-55 WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/AND
BEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR ARE COLLOCATED. INSTABILITY WILL BE
KEY...AND DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN. TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE...AND CAN EASILY
SEE SOME AREA EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT AS DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST.

TEMPERATURES A HEADACHE...AND WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON EXTENT AND
TIMING OF BETTER RAINS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IN NO WAY
MIMIC REALITY...BUT AS DAYTIME FORECASTER MENTIONED...COULD EASILY
SEE SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES. STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
BACKSIDE NORTH FLOW TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S...HELPING SET UP A CHILLY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...ANYONE SEEN SUMMER LATELY?...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. JUST SOME PESKY
SHOWER CHANCES ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
WILL MAKE A GLORIOUS RETURN (UNLESS YOU`RE A FAN OF ACTUAL SUMMER
WEATHER) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT WHOLE PROCESS IS
UNDERWAY AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN...COURTESY OF A QUITE STRONG
CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF A MUCH MORE BROAD CLOSED FEATURE UP ACROSS EAST HUDSON BAY. SAID
LEAD WAVE WILL ACT TO EFFECTIVELY CARVE OUT A RESPECTABLE DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AN INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE SPECIFICS...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: WELCOME FALL! WELL...MAYBE A LITTLE
EXTREME...WITH WITH H8 TEMPS PLUNGING INTO THE 4-6C RANGE ON GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...THINGS WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE MID
SEPTEMBER THAN THE LAST DAYS OF JULY. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS
WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING
ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
SOME SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY
SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS
OF HEATING AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON.

PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO
INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT SHOULD  COME LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER
MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND INCLUDE A LOWER
CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PROGGED
TO SPILL OVERHEAD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW
BOOST BACK THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF
ANY TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW T-STORMS FOR
THE TERMINAL SITES.

FIRST WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH SOME MORNING FOG THAT IS IMPACTING
PLN/TVC/MBL AND MAY STILL IMPACT APN BEFORE BURNING OFF BY MID
MORNING. A MORE WIDESPREAD AXIS OF LOWER CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
WORKS SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THAT
SETUP SHOULD ALSO BRING A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST FROM THE
NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SKIES LIKELY
TO END UP CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS JUST AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE BUT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS...GETTING A LITTLE MORE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AROUND MBL AND TVS (CLOSER TO THE WATER)
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIAL RATHER WEAK/DISORGANIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TIGHTENS UP NICELY TOWARDS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
STRONG CAA SUPPORTS DECREASING OVER-WATER STABILITY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE BIG WATERS.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
PULL THE TRIGGER ON ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...
WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DO SUCH ON LAKE HURON LATER TODAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...LAWRENCE/ARNOTT
MARINE...MSB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 271149
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
749 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES
IN OUR CWA. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTH WITH
TIME. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW THE DENSE FOG EVOLVES. AT
THIS POINT FEEL MOST CONFIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.
FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE STRATUS EXPANDING SO IT MAY
BECOME NECESSARY TO MOVE THE HEADLINE NORTH WITH TIME. FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING DEW POINTS ARE THE CULPRIT THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OR
THROUGH 15Z TO 16Z. BY MIDDAY...EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HEAD INTO THE EVENING.
VFR WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MVFR CLOUDS SAG BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN INTO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF MOST PREVALENT STORMS
SHOULD BE BETWEEN 16Z AND 23Z ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY REMAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT HAVE VCTS IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOCATION OF
THE STORMS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.
THIS SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN A BIG JUMP IN WAVE HEIGHTS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
MONDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE LONG SHORE AND STRUCTURAL
CURRENTS THAT WILL MAKE SWIMMING HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH
SIDES OF PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 271149
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
749 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES
IN OUR CWA. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTH WITH
TIME. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW THE DENSE FOG EVOLVES. AT
THIS POINT FEEL MOST CONFIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.
FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE STRATUS EXPANDING SO IT MAY
BECOME NECESSARY TO MOVE THE HEADLINE NORTH WITH TIME. FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING DEW POINTS ARE THE CULPRIT THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OR
THROUGH 15Z TO 16Z. BY MIDDAY...EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HEAD INTO THE EVENING.
VFR WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MVFR CLOUDS SAG BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN INTO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF MOST PREVALENT STORMS
SHOULD BE BETWEEN 16Z AND 23Z ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY REMAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT HAVE VCTS IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOCATION OF
THE STORMS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.
THIS SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN A BIG JUMP IN WAVE HEIGHTS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
MONDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE LONG SHORE AND STRUCTURAL
CURRENTS THAT WILL MAKE SWIMMING HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH
SIDES OF PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KMQT 271129
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
729 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE FRONT-RUNNING MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. BEST
INSTABILITY LOCATED WELL TOT HE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER WI WITH
MUCAPES AT OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHERN
END OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTENSIFICATION
EARLY THIS AM AS THEY FEED ON MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

5H LOW TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE U.P.  BEST INSTABILITY AND 850-500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
THUS WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE ENDING
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE QUESTION. LATEST MODEL RUNS WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE PRECIPITATION OUT AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS TREND FOR THIS FORECAST. WITH DECENT 850-500 MB Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AND GRADUALLY BECOMES EASTERLY AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG OUT EAST WHERE
THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ENHANCES FOG PROBABILITIES. THE
FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS AM AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
N AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN AT THE SFC. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED A SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST AS 850 MB TEMPS
ONLY FALL OFF LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS SE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND DEPARTING
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
RELAY TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AD DRIER AIR WORKING IN WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THE MID 40S COMMON AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPSLOPE FLOW AT KCMX PRODUCING LIFR CONDITIONS THERE THIS MORNING.
SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AT KSAW BUT LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE NOT
YET BECOME PERSISTENT THERE...BUT SHOULD DO SO AS LIFR CONDITIONS
REPORTED CLOSE BY THAT LOCATION. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT
KCMX BY MID MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT THERE AND REDUCE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...BUT LOWER CIGS TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER AT KSAW AS
UPSLOPE FLOW TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER THERE. KIWD TO SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN -SHRA AND WILL BE THE FIRST TO GO VFR LATER TODAY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TWO TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH KSAW THE LAST TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA TODAY...BRINGING
INCREASING WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING
AS HIGH AS 22 KTS...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH WINDS PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AT 20 KTS. WINDS TO GRADUALLY
RELAX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SPEEDS EVENTUALLY
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-
     267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244>248-
     265.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...RJT







000
FXUS63 KDTX 271125
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
725 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE FOG AND LOW
CEILING DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THEN THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

VLIFR/LIFR RESTRICTION IN FOG/STRATUS IS THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A TYPICAL
PACE OF IMPROVEMENT ON THE FOG/STRATUS AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING
GETS UNDERWAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CLUSTERS THAT WILL LIKELY
AFFECT MBS FIRST AND THEN QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND MVFR STRATUS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER SE MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND WILL
STAY UP FROM THE NORTH AND THEN GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... VISIBILITY WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL UPWARD IMPROVEMENT CYCLE
AS FOG LIFTS TO LOW STRATUS AND THEN MIXES OUT TOWARD NOON. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS MUCH ON TIMING OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY/POTENTIAL SEVERITY. THE
LATE AFTERNOON WINDOW OFFERED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
REFINED AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND CEILING LESS
  THAN 200 FEET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO MICHIGAN BY 00Z/8PM TODAY.
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BY 15Z/10AM...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS THE
THUMB...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WISCONSIN. BOTH
FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE...PULLING A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEHIND IT...AND LIKELY BRINGING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WHOLE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START TODAY WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS FOR ML/SB CAPE LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES BETWEEN 14-15Z (PER NAM
SOUNDINGS). THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET...100
KNOTS...THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A STRONGER CORE
OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL STILL INCREASE
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS IT
BRUSHES BY. ALTHOUGH 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW...UNDER 10
KNOTS...0-6KM SHEAR WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40-45 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE THREAT WILL HOWEVER DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID/LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY 8 PM...WITH THE
THREAT NORTH OF I-69 LOOKING TO TAPER OFF BY 5 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH FAT CAPE AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS WELL AS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR. SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A N-S
TRANSITION TO TALL AND SKINNY CAPE AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN AT THE
LOWER-LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES REMAIN UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME RAIN (WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AT THE MID-LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED
AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM UP AROUND 80...WHICH WILL
FEEL MUGGY WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/RAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 10C. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OF
MODERATION EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS INSTABILITY
IN THE COOL AIR MASS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
EXIT EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AROUND 700 MB TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO ABOUT 800
MB OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GOOD FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE
CUMULUS BUT NO RAIN. FORECASTS OF 850 MB TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 7C
SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY
70 IN THE DETROIT AREA TO OHIO BORDER...FAVORING BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE RECORDS FOR COOLEST MAX TEMPS ON
JULY 28TH: DTW 68/1926...FNT 64/1981...MBS 60/1981.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TENDENCY FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE
REDUCED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...WELL AGREED UPON IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL SHARPEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH FOR MBS LOOKS REACHABLE AT
48/1965 AND EVEN FOR DTW 50/1971 BUT NOT FNT AT 42/1928.

CONTINUED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 MB DEWPOINT IS SHOWN TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
EXTENDING ABOVE -20C BUT ARE OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S WOULD SEEM LIKE A STRETCH IF NOT FOR THE EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS SOLID UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT WILL PERSIST EACH DAY...BUT WITH SLUGS OF DRY AIR AND
NEUTRAL FLOW MODULATING ACTIVITY.

MARINE...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE
WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
     MIZ083...UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KAPX 271058 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
658 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...MUCH COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS RETURNING INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOUPY LLEVEL AIRMASS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IT IS LOCALLY
DENSE AND AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK
WHERE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF ADVANCING
THETAE RIDGE HAVE ARRIVED /ALTHOUGH THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY
OUTRUN THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY...COOL DOWN BEGINS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-55 TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CHANGES ARE OCCURRING...WITH
PROMINENT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES...WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SLIDES DOWN ITS NORTHEAST FLANK INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ALL IS PART
OF THAT WHOLE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONE THAT IS SET TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
UNSEASONABLE CHILL TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NOW...DESPITE SUCH
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES...REALLY A RATHER CALM OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR
AREA...COURTESY OF LOW AMP SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD
(ITSELF DRIVEN BY THAT ANOMALOUS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. KINDA FUNNY HOW IT ALL WORKS). HOWEVER...SUCH A BREAK WILL
BE A SHORT ONE...WITH STRONG AND DEEP LAYER UPSTREAM DYNAMICS
ALREADY KICKING OFF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ABOVE HAS ITS
SIGHTS SET ON OUR AREA TODAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN ALONG WITH IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION...
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: ITS GOING TO RAIN...WITH SOME HALFWAY DECENT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BEFORE EVERYTHING WRAPS UP LATER TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. COMBINATION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL SUPPORT/DEFORMATION ALONG/NORTH OF WAVE CENTER
AND DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL DO THE TRICK...DEVELOPING RATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...PULLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REMOVED TO THE SOUTH...BUT SIMPLE DYNAMICS
AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE SHOULD TIP THE SCALES TO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTH OF M-72. WHILE NEARLY EVERYTHING POINTS TO SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCE IS DEFINITELY NOT ZERO
FOR AREAS DOWN NEAR M-55 WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/AND
BEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR ARE COLLOCATED. INSTABILITY WILL BE
KEY...AND DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN. TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE...AND CAN EASILY
SEE SOME AREA EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT AS DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST.

TEMPERATURES A HEADACHE...AND WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON EXTENT AND
TIMING OF BETTER RAINS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IN NO WAY
MIMIC REALITY...BUT AS DAYTIME FORECASTER MENTIONED...COULD EASILY
SEE SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES. STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
BACKSIDE NORTH FLOW TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S...HELPING SET UP A CHILLY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...ANYONE SEEN SUMMER LATELY?...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. JUST SOME PESKY
SHOWER CHANCES ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
WILL MAKE A GLORIOUS RETURN (UNLESS YOU`RE A FAN OF ACTUAL SUMMER
WEATHER) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT WHOLE PROCESS IS
UNDERWAY AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN...COURTESY OF A QUITE STRONG
CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF A MUCH MORE BROAD CLOSED FEATURE UP ACROSS EAST HUDSON BAY. SAID
LEAD WAVE WILL ACT TO EFFECTIVELY CARVE OUT A RESPECTABLE DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AN INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE SPECIFICS...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: WELCOME FALL! WELL...MAYBE A LITTLE
EXTREME...WITH WITH H8 TEMPS PLUNGING INTO THE 4-6C RANGE ON GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...THINGS WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE MID
SEPTEMBER THAN THE LAST DAYS OF JULY. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS
WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING
ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
SOME SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY
SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS
OF HEATING AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON.

PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO
INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT SHOULD  COME LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER
MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND INCLUDE A LOWER
CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PROGGED
TO SPILL OVERHEAD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW
BOOST BACK THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF
ANY TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW T-STORMS FOR
THE TERMINAL SITES.

FIRST WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH SOME MORNING FOG THAT IS IMPACTING
PLN/TVC/MBL AND MAY STILL IMPACT APN BEFORE BURNING OFF BY MID
MORNING. A MORE WIDESPREAD AXIS OF LOWER CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
WORKS SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THAT
SETUP SHOULD ALSO BRING A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST FROM THE
NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SKIES LIKELY
TO END UP CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS JUST AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE BUT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS...GETTING A LITTLE MORE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AROUND MBL AND TVS (CLOSER TO THE WATER)
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIAL RATHER WEAK/DISORGANIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TIGHTENS UP NICELY TOWARDS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
STRONG CAA SUPPORTS DECREASING OVER-WATER STABILITY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE BIG WATERS.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
PULL THE TRIGGER ON ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...
WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DO SUCH ON LAKE HURON LATER TODAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...LAWRENCE/ARNOTT
MARINE...MSB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 271058 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
658 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...MUCH COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS RETURNING INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOUPY LLEVEL AIRMASS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IT IS LOCALLY
DENSE AND AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK
WHERE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF ADVANCING
THETAE RIDGE HAVE ARRIVED /ALTHOUGH THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY
OUTRUN THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY...COOL DOWN BEGINS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-55 TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CHANGES ARE OCCURRING...WITH
PROMINENT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES...WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SLIDES DOWN ITS NORTHEAST FLANK INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ALL IS PART
OF THAT WHOLE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONE THAT IS SET TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
UNSEASONABLE CHILL TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NOW...DESPITE SUCH
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES...REALLY A RATHER CALM OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR
AREA...COURTESY OF LOW AMP SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD
(ITSELF DRIVEN BY THAT ANOMALOUS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. KINDA FUNNY HOW IT ALL WORKS). HOWEVER...SUCH A BREAK WILL
BE A SHORT ONE...WITH STRONG AND DEEP LAYER UPSTREAM DYNAMICS
ALREADY KICKING OFF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ABOVE HAS ITS
SIGHTS SET ON OUR AREA TODAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN ALONG WITH IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION...
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: ITS GOING TO RAIN...WITH SOME HALFWAY DECENT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BEFORE EVERYTHING WRAPS UP LATER TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. COMBINATION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL SUPPORT/DEFORMATION ALONG/NORTH OF WAVE CENTER
AND DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL DO THE TRICK...DEVELOPING RATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...PULLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REMOVED TO THE SOUTH...BUT SIMPLE DYNAMICS
AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE SHOULD TIP THE SCALES TO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTH OF M-72. WHILE NEARLY EVERYTHING POINTS TO SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCE IS DEFINITELY NOT ZERO
FOR AREAS DOWN NEAR M-55 WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/AND
BEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR ARE COLLOCATED. INSTABILITY WILL BE
KEY...AND DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN. TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE...AND CAN EASILY
SEE SOME AREA EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT AS DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST.

TEMPERATURES A HEADACHE...AND WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON EXTENT AND
TIMING OF BETTER RAINS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IN NO WAY
MIMIC REALITY...BUT AS DAYTIME FORECASTER MENTIONED...COULD EASILY
SEE SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES. STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
BACKSIDE NORTH FLOW TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S...HELPING SET UP A CHILLY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...ANYONE SEEN SUMMER LATELY?...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. JUST SOME PESKY
SHOWER CHANCES ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
WILL MAKE A GLORIOUS RETURN (UNLESS YOU`RE A FAN OF ACTUAL SUMMER
WEATHER) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT WHOLE PROCESS IS
UNDERWAY AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN...COURTESY OF A QUITE STRONG
CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF A MUCH MORE BROAD CLOSED FEATURE UP ACROSS EAST HUDSON BAY. SAID
LEAD WAVE WILL ACT TO EFFECTIVELY CARVE OUT A RESPECTABLE DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AN INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE SPECIFICS...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: WELCOME FALL! WELL...MAYBE A LITTLE
EXTREME...WITH WITH H8 TEMPS PLUNGING INTO THE 4-6C RANGE ON GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...THINGS WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE MID
SEPTEMBER THAN THE LAST DAYS OF JULY. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS
WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING
ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
SOME SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY
SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS
OF HEATING AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON.

PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO
INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT SHOULD  COME LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER
MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND INCLUDE A LOWER
CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PROGGED
TO SPILL OVERHEAD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW
BOOST BACK THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF
ANY TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES TODAY...
USHERING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW T-STORMS FOR
THE TERMINAL SITES.

FIRST WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH SOME MORNING FOG THAT IS IMPACTING
PLN/TVC/MBL AND MAY STILL IMPACT APN BEFORE BURNING OFF BY MID
MORNING. A MORE WIDESPREAD AXIS OF LOWER CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
WORKS SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THAT
SETUP SHOULD ALSO BRING A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST FROM THE
NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SKIES LIKELY
TO END UP CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS JUST AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE BUT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS...GETTING A LITTLE MORE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AROUND MBL AND TVS (CLOSER TO THE WATER)
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIAL RATHER WEAK/DISORGANIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TIGHTENS UP NICELY TOWARDS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
STRONG CAA SUPPORTS DECREASING OVER-WATER STABILITY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE BIG WATERS.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
PULL THE TRIGGER ON ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...
WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DO SUCH ON LAKE HURON LATER TODAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...LAWRENCE/ARNOTT
MARINE...MSB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270959
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
559 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES
IN OUR CWA. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTH WITH
TIME. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW THE DENSE FOG EVOLVES. AT
THIS POINT FEEL MOST CONFIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.
FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE STRATUS EXPANDING SO IT MAY
BECOME NECESSARY TO MOVE THE HEADLINE NORTH WITH TIME. FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING DEW POINTS ARE THE CULPRIT THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MY THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE 00Z TAFS...FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TO CLEAR THEM OUT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS I THROUGH THEY WOULD. NOW FOG IS
DEVELOPING... BIV IS ALREADY 2 MILES IN FOG. MANY OTHER LOCATIONS
HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING THIS IS A GOOD SET OF FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE RAP
MODEL SHOW MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96 WITH FOG BY 12Z.

AS FOR THE CONVECTION...WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND CONSIDERING THERE IS
ALREADY CONVECTION OVER NW WI...NORTH INTO ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW IT WOULD SEEM THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THERE WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AT ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY. I TIMED THE SHOWER FROM WEST
TO EAST. I WOULD THINK THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY BY MID
MORNING AT THE SYSTEM INCREASES MIXING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.
THIS SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN A BIG JUMP IN WAVE HEIGHTS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
MONDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE LONG SHORE AND STRUCTURAL
CURRENTS THAT WILL MAKE SWIMMING HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH
SIDES OF PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ064>067-
     071>074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270959
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
559 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES
IN OUR CWA. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTH WITH
TIME. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW THE DENSE FOG EVOLVES. AT
THIS POINT FEEL MOST CONFIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.
FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE STRATUS EXPANDING SO IT MAY
BECOME NECESSARY TO MOVE THE HEADLINE NORTH WITH TIME. FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING DEW POINTS ARE THE CULPRIT THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MY THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE 00Z TAFS...FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TO CLEAR THEM OUT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS I THROUGH THEY WOULD. NOW FOG IS
DEVELOPING... BIV IS ALREADY 2 MILES IN FOG. MANY OTHER LOCATIONS
HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING THIS IS A GOOD SET OF FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE RAP
MODEL SHOW MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96 WITH FOG BY 12Z.

AS FOR THE CONVECTION...WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND CONSIDERING THERE IS
ALREADY CONVECTION OVER NW WI...NORTH INTO ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW IT WOULD SEEM THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THERE WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AT ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY. I TIMED THE SHOWER FROM WEST
TO EAST. I WOULD THINK THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY BY MID
MORNING AT THE SYSTEM INCREASES MIXING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.
THIS SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN A BIG JUMP IN WAVE HEIGHTS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
MONDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE LONG SHORE AND STRUCTURAL
CURRENTS THAT WILL MAKE SWIMMING HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH
SIDES OF PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ064>067-
     071>074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KMQT 270852
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
452 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE FRONT-RUNNING MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. BEST
INSTABILITY LOCATED WELL TOT HE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER WI WITH
MUCAPES AT OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHERN
END OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTENSIFICATION
EARLY THIS AM AS THEY FEED ON MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

5H LOW TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE U.P.  BEST INSTABILITY AND 850-500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
THUS WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE ENDING
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE QUESTION. LATEST MODEL RUNS WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE PRECIPITATION OUT AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS TREND FOR THIS FORECAST. WITH DECENT 850-500 MB Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AND GRADUALLY BECOMES EASTERLY AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG OUT EAST WHERE
THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ENHANCES FOG PROBABILITIES. THE
FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS AM AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
N AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN AT THE SFC. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED A SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST AS 850 MB TEMPS
ONLY FALL OFF LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS SE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND DEPARTING
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
RELAY TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AD DRIER AIR WORKING IN WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THE MID 40S COMMON AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AS SOME SCT SHRA...AND ISOLD TSRA IN KCMX AREA..ARRIVE IN
ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO MN AND FOG DVLPS IN THE PRESENCE
OF DIURNAL COOLING. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO IFR ON
SUN MRNG WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OFF LK SUP. A STEADY NNE
WIND WL TAP DRIER AIR...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN. WITH A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...SAW WL
BE THE LAST TO SEE IMPROVEMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA TODAY...BRINGING
INCREASING WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING
AS HIGH AS 22 KTS...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH WINDS PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AT 20 KTS. WINDS TO GRADUALLY
RELAX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SPEEDS EVENTUALLY
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-
     267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244>248-265.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...RJT






000
FXUS63 KMQT 270852
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
452 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE FRONT-RUNNING MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. BEST
INSTABILITY LOCATED WELL TOT HE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER WI WITH
MUCAPES AT OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHERN
END OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTENSIFICATION
EARLY THIS AM AS THEY FEED ON MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

5H LOW TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE U.P.  BEST INSTABILITY AND 850-500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
THUS WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE ENDING
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE QUESTION. LATEST MODEL RUNS WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE PRECIPITATION OUT AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS TREND FOR THIS FORECAST. WITH DECENT 850-500 MB Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AND GRADUALLY BECOMES EASTERLY AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG OUT EAST WHERE
THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ENHANCES FOG PROBABILITIES. THE
FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS AM AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
N AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN AT THE SFC. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED A SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST AS 850 MB TEMPS
ONLY FALL OFF LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS SE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND DEPARTING
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
RELAY TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AD DRIER AIR WORKING IN WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THE MID 40S COMMON AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AS SOME SCT SHRA...AND ISOLD TSRA IN KCMX AREA..ARRIVE IN
ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO MN AND FOG DVLPS IN THE PRESENCE
OF DIURNAL COOLING. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO IFR ON
SUN MRNG WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OFF LK SUP. A STEADY NNE
WIND WL TAP DRIER AIR...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN. WITH A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...SAW WL
BE THE LAST TO SEE IMPROVEMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA TODAY...BRINGING
INCREASING WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING
AS HIGH AS 22 KTS...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH WINDS PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AT 20 KTS. WINDS TO GRADUALLY
RELAX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SPEEDS EVENTUALLY
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-
     267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244>248-265.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...RJT







000
FXUS63 KMQT 270805
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
405 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AS SOME SCT SHRA...AND ISOLD TSRA IN KCMX AREA..ARRIVE IN
ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO MN AND FOG DVLPS IN THE PRESENCE
OF DIURNAL COOLING. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO IFR ON
SUN MRNG WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OFF LK SUP. A STEADY NNE
WIND WL TAP DRIER AIR...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN. WITH A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...SAW WL
BE THE LAST TO SEE IMPROVEMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY EVENING UPDATE...BASED ON SHIP OBS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND WEBCAMS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LAKE.

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-
     267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244>248-265.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF/KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 270805
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
405 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
ROTATE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEANS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK (WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPALACHIANS) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE WAVES IS TRADITIONALLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE SUBTLE
WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK AND LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE BETWEEN 4-12C WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIKELY WON/T HELP THE SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAND AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IS REASONABLE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND LEAD TO THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WILL TREND POPS UP TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WHERE
THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED). MU/ML CAPE
VALUES INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 250-1000
J/KG)...SO PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA OF STARTING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS REASONABLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20-25KTS AND A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE (NCAPE VALUES 0.06-0.1)
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.0 INCH
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY) SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 0.5IN.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND AREA COMES BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL JUST
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MORE MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA. WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS (SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND TRY TO SHOW SOME TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AS SOME SCT SHRA...AND ISOLD TSRA IN KCMX AREA..ARRIVE IN
ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO MN AND FOG DVLPS IN THE PRESENCE
OF DIURNAL COOLING. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO IFR ON
SUN MRNG WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OFF LK SUP. A STEADY NNE
WIND WL TAP DRIER AIR...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN. WITH A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...SAW WL
BE THE LAST TO SEE IMPROVEMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY EVENING UPDATE...BASED ON SHIP OBS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND WEBCAMS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LAKE.

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-
     267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244>248-265.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF/KC







000
FXUS63 KDTX 270758
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO MICHIGAN BY 00Z/8PM TODAY.
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BY 15Z/10AM...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS THE
THUMB...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WISCONSIN. BOTH
FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE...PULLING A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEHIND IT...AND LIKELY BRINGING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WHOLE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START TODAY WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS FOR ML/SB CAPE LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES BETWEEN 14-15Z (PER NAM
SOUNDINGS). THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET...100
KNOTS...THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A STRONGER CORE
OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL STILL INCREASE
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS IT
BRUSHES BY. ALTHOUGH 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW...UNDER 10
KNOTS...0-6KM SHEAR WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40-45 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE THREAT WILL HOWEVER DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID/LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY 8 PM...WITH THE
THREAT NORTH OF I-69 LOOKING TO TAPER OFF BY 5 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH FAT CAPE AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS WELL AS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR. SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A N-S
TRANSITION TO TALL AND SKINNY CAPE AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN AT THE
LOWER-LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES REMAIN UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME RAIN (WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AT THE MID-LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED
AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM UP AROUND 80...WHICH WILL
FEEL MUGGY WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/RAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 10C. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OF
MODERATION EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS INSTABILITY
IN THE COOL AIR MASS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
EXIT EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AROUND 700 MB TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO ABOUT 800
MB OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GOOD FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE
CUMULUS BUT NO RAIN. FORECASTS OF 850 MB TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 7C
SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY
70 IN THE DETROIT AREA TO OHIO BORDER...FAVORING BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE RECORDS FOR COOLEST MAX TEMPS ON
JULY 28TH: DTW 68/1926...FNT 64/1981...MBS 60/1981.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TENDENCY FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE
REDUCED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...WELL AGREED UPON IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL SHARPEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH FOR MBS LOOKS REACHABLE AT
48/1965 AND EVEN FOR DTW 50/1971 BUT NOT FNT AT 42/1928.

CONTINUED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 MB DEWPOINT IS SHOWN TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
EXTENDING ABOVE -20C BUT ARE OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S WOULD SEEM LIKE A STRETCH IF NOT FOR THE EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS SOLID UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT WILL PERSIST EACH DAY...BUT WITH SLUGS OF DRY AIR AND
NEUTRAL FLOW MODULATING ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE
WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE NOW THAT SHORTWAVE HAS RACED EAST
OF THE AREA...THE NEXT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS MAIN STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS...EXPECT SOME FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS SKIES CLEAR
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. WILL TIME CONVECTION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...STARTING 18Z-20Z AND ENDING
04Z-06Z...WITH MORE MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE WITHIN DEVELOPING NORTH
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN AREA.

FOR DTW...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. SHRAS/TSRAS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS
APPROACHING STRONG SHORTWAVE INDUCES LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 20Z
SUNDAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 04Z-06Z SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 270758
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO MICHIGAN BY 00Z/8PM TODAY.
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BY 15Z/10AM...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS THE
THUMB...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WISCONSIN. BOTH
FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE...PULLING A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEHIND IT...AND LIKELY BRINGING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WHOLE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START TODAY WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS FOR ML/SB CAPE LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES BETWEEN 14-15Z (PER NAM
SOUNDINGS). THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET...100
KNOTS...THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A STRONGER CORE
OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL STILL INCREASE
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS IT
BRUSHES BY. ALTHOUGH 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW...UNDER 10
KNOTS...0-6KM SHEAR WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40-45 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE THREAT WILL HOWEVER DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID/LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY 8 PM...WITH THE
THREAT NORTH OF I-69 LOOKING TO TAPER OFF BY 5 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH FAT CAPE AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS WELL AS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR. SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A N-S
TRANSITION TO TALL AND SKINNY CAPE AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN AT THE
LOWER-LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES REMAIN UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME RAIN (WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AT THE MID-LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED
AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM UP AROUND 80...WHICH WILL
FEEL MUGGY WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/RAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 10C. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OF
MODERATION EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS INSTABILITY
IN THE COOL AIR MASS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
EXIT EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AROUND 700 MB TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO ABOUT 800
MB OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GOOD FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE
CUMULUS BUT NO RAIN. FORECASTS OF 850 MB TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 7C
SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY
70 IN THE DETROIT AREA TO OHIO BORDER...FAVORING BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE RECORDS FOR COOLEST MAX TEMPS ON
JULY 28TH: DTW 68/1926...FNT 64/1981...MBS 60/1981.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TENDENCY FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE
REDUCED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...WELL AGREED UPON IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL SHARPEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH FOR MBS LOOKS REACHABLE AT
48/1965 AND EVEN FOR DTW 50/1971 BUT NOT FNT AT 42/1928.

CONTINUED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 MB DEWPOINT IS SHOWN TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
EXTENDING ABOVE -20C BUT ARE OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S WOULD SEEM LIKE A STRETCH IF NOT FOR THE EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS SOLID UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT WILL PERSIST EACH DAY...BUT WITH SLUGS OF DRY AIR AND
NEUTRAL FLOW MODULATING ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE
WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE NOW THAT SHORTWAVE HAS RACED EAST
OF THE AREA...THE NEXT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS MAIN STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS...EXPECT SOME FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS SKIES CLEAR
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. WILL TIME CONVECTION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...STARTING 18Z-20Z AND ENDING
04Z-06Z...WITH MORE MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE WITHIN DEVELOPING NORTH
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN AREA.

FOR DTW...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. SHRAS/TSRAS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS
APPROACHING STRONG SHORTWAVE INDUCES LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 20Z
SUNDAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 04Z-06Z SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KGRR 270728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MY THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE 00Z TAFS...FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TO CLEAR THEM OUT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS I THROUGH THEY WOULD. NOW FOG IS
DEVELOPING... BIV IS ALREADY 2 MILES IN FOG. MANY OTHER LOCATIONS
HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING THIS IS A GOOD SET OF FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE RAP
MODEL SHOW MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96 WITH FOG BY 12Z.

AS FOR THE CONVECTION...WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND CONSIDERING THERE IS
ALREADY CONVECTION OVER NW WI...NORTH INTO ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW IT WOULD SEEM THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THERE WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AT ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY. I TIMED THE SHOWER FROM WEST
TO EAST. I WOULD THINK THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY BY MID
MORNING AT THE SYSTEM INCREASES MIXING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.
THIS SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN A BIG JUMP IN WAVE HEIGHTS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
MONDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE LONG SHORE AND STRUCTURAL
CURRENTS THAT WILL MAKE SWIMMING HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH
SIDES OF PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93










000
FXUS63 KGRR 270728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MY THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE 00Z TAFS...FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TO CLEAR THEM OUT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS I THROUGH THEY WOULD. NOW FOG IS
DEVELOPING... BIV IS ALREADY 2 MILES IN FOG. MANY OTHER LOCATIONS
HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING THIS IS A GOOD SET OF FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE RAP
MODEL SHOW MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96 WITH FOG BY 12Z.

AS FOR THE CONVECTION...WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND CONSIDERING THERE IS
ALREADY CONVECTION OVER NW WI...NORTH INTO ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW IT WOULD SEEM THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THERE WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AT ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY. I TIMED THE SHOWER FROM WEST
TO EAST. I WOULD THINK THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY BY MID
MORNING AT THE SYSTEM INCREASES MIXING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.
THIS SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN A BIG JUMP IN WAVE HEIGHTS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
MONDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE LONG SHORE AND STRUCTURAL
CURRENTS THAT WILL MAKE SWIMMING HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH
SIDES OF PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KAPX 270714
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...MUCH COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS RETURNING INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY...COOL DOWN BEGINS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-55 TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CHANGES ARE OCCURRING...WITH
PROMINENT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES...WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SLIDES DOWN ITS NORTHEAST FLANK INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ALL IS PART
OF THAT WHOLE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONE THAT IS SET TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
UNSEASONABLE CHILL TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NOW...DESPITE SUCH
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES...REALLY A RATHER CALM OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR
AREA...COURTESY OF LOW AMP SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD
(ITSELF DRIVEN BY THAT ANOMALOUS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. KINDA FUNNY HOW IT ALL WORKS). HOWEVER...SUCH A BREAK WILL
BE A SHORT ONE...WITH STRONG AND DEEP LAYER UPSTREAM DYNAMICS
ALREADY KICKING OFF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ABOVE HAS ITS
SIGHTS SET ON OUR AREA TODAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN ALONG WITH IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION...
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: ITS GOING TO RAIN...WITH SOME HALFWAY DECENT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BEFORE EVERYTHING WRAPS UP LATER TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. COMBINATION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL SUPPORT/DEFORMATION ALONG/NORTH OF WAVE CENTER
AND DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL DO THE TRICK...DEVELOPING RATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...PULLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REMOVED TO THE SOUTH...BUT SIMPLE DYNAMICS
AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE SHOULD TIP THE SCALES TO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTH OF M-72. WHILE NEARLY EVERYTHING POINTS TO SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCE IS DEFINITELY NOT ZERO
FOR AREAS DOWN NEAR M-55 WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/AND
BEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR ARE COLLOCATED. INSTABILITY WILL BE
KEY...AND DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN. TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE...AND CAN EASILY
SEE SOME AREA EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT AS DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST.

TEMPERATURES A HEADACHE...AND WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON EXTENT AND
TIMING OF BETTER RAINS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IN NO WAY
MIMIC REALITY...BUT AS DAYTIME FORECASTER MENTIONED...COULD EASILY
SEE SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES. STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
BACKSIDE NORTH FLOW TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S...HELPING SET UP A CHILLY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...ANYONE SEEN SUMMER LATELY?...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. JUST SOME PESKY
SHOWER CHANCES ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
WILL MAKE A GLORIOUS RETURN (UNLESS YOU`RE A FAN OF ACTUAL SUMMER
WEATHER) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT WHOLE PROCESS IS
UNDERWAY AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN...COURTESY OF A QUITE STRONG
CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF A MUCH MORE BROAD CLOSED FEATURE UP ACROSS EAST HUDSON BAY. SAID
LEAD WAVE WILL ACT TO EFFECTIVELY CARVE OUT A RESPECTABLE DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AN INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE SPECIFICS...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: WELCOME FALL! WELL...MAYBE A LITTLE
EXTREME...WITH WITH H8 TEMPS PLUNGING INTO THE 4-6C RANGE ON GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...THINGS WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE MID
SEPTEMBER THAN THE LAST DAYS OF JULY. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS
WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING
ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
SOME SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY
SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS
OF HEATING AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON.

PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO
INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT SHOULD  COME LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER
MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND INCLUDE A LOWER
CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PROGGED
TO SPILL OVERHEAD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW
BOOST BACK THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF
ANY TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOP THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
NRN MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS A RATHER
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SE OUT OF S CENTRAL CANADA INTO MICHIGAN.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEND TO SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIAL RATHER WEAK/DISORGANIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TIGHTENS UP NICELY TOWARDS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
STRONG CAA SUPPORTS DECREASING OVER-WATER STABILITY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE BIG WATERS.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
PULL THE TRIGGER ON ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...
WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DO SUCH ON LAKE HURON LATER TODAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 270714
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...MUCH COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS RETURNING INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY...COOL DOWN BEGINS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-55 TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CHANGES ARE OCCURRING...WITH
PROMINENT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES...WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SLIDES DOWN ITS NORTHEAST FLANK INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ALL IS PART
OF THAT WHOLE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONE THAT IS SET TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
UNSEASONABLE CHILL TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NOW...DESPITE SUCH
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES...REALLY A RATHER CALM OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR
AREA...COURTESY OF LOW AMP SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD
(ITSELF DRIVEN BY THAT ANOMALOUS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. KINDA FUNNY HOW IT ALL WORKS). HOWEVER...SUCH A BREAK WILL
BE A SHORT ONE...WITH STRONG AND DEEP LAYER UPSTREAM DYNAMICS
ALREADY KICKING OFF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ABOVE HAS ITS
SIGHTS SET ON OUR AREA TODAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN ALONG WITH IT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION...
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: ITS GOING TO RAIN...WITH SOME HALFWAY DECENT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BEFORE EVERYTHING WRAPS UP LATER TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. COMBINATION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL SUPPORT/DEFORMATION ALONG/NORTH OF WAVE CENTER
AND DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL DO THE TRICK...DEVELOPING RATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...PULLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REMOVED TO THE SOUTH...BUT SIMPLE DYNAMICS
AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE SHOULD TIP THE SCALES TO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTH OF M-72. WHILE NEARLY EVERYTHING POINTS TO SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCE IS DEFINITELY NOT ZERO
FOR AREAS DOWN NEAR M-55 WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/AND
BEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR ARE COLLOCATED. INSTABILITY WILL BE
KEY...AND DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN. TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE...AND CAN EASILY
SEE SOME AREA EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT AS DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST.

TEMPERATURES A HEADACHE...AND WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON EXTENT AND
TIMING OF BETTER RAINS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IN NO WAY
MIMIC REALITY...BUT AS DAYTIME FORECASTER MENTIONED...COULD EASILY
SEE SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES. STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
BACKSIDE NORTH FLOW TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S...HELPING SET UP A CHILLY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...ANYONE SEEN SUMMER LATELY?...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. JUST SOME PESKY
SHOWER CHANCES ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
WILL MAKE A GLORIOUS RETURN (UNLESS YOU`RE A FAN OF ACTUAL SUMMER
WEATHER) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT WHOLE PROCESS IS
UNDERWAY AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN...COURTESY OF A QUITE STRONG
CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF A MUCH MORE BROAD CLOSED FEATURE UP ACROSS EAST HUDSON BAY. SAID
LEAD WAVE WILL ACT TO EFFECTIVELY CARVE OUT A RESPECTABLE DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AN INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE SPECIFICS...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: WELCOME FALL! WELL...MAYBE A LITTLE
EXTREME...WITH WITH H8 TEMPS PLUNGING INTO THE 4-6C RANGE ON GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...THINGS WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE MID
SEPTEMBER THAN THE LAST DAYS OF JULY. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS
WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING
ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
SOME SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY
SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS
OF HEATING AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON.

PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO
INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT SHOULD  COME LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER
MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND INCLUDE A LOWER
CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PROGGED
TO SPILL OVERHEAD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW
BOOST BACK THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF
ANY TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOP THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
NRN MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS A RATHER
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SE OUT OF S CENTRAL CANADA INTO MICHIGAN.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEND TO SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIAL RATHER WEAK/DISORGANIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TIGHTENS UP NICELY TOWARDS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
STRONG CAA SUPPORTS DECREASING OVER-WATER STABILITY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE BIG WATERS.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
PULL THE TRIGGER ON ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...
WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DO SUCH ON LAKE HURON LATER TODAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 270523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AS SOME SCT SHRA...AND ISOLD TSRA IN KCMX AREA..ARRIVE IN
ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO MN AND FOG DVLPS IN THE PRESENCE
OF DIURNAL COOLING. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO IFR ON
SUN MRNG WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OFF LK SUP. A STEADY NNE
WIND WL TAP DRIER AIR...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN. WITH A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...SAW WL
BE THE LAST TO SEE IMPROVEMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY EVENING UPDATE...BASED ON SHIP OBS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND WEBCAMS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LAKE.

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-
     267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF/KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 270523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AS SOME SCT SHRA...AND ISOLD TSRA IN KCMX AREA..ARRIVE IN
ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO MN AND FOG DVLPS IN THE PRESENCE
OF DIURNAL COOLING. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO IFR ON
SUN MRNG WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OFF LK SUP. A STEADY NNE
WIND WL TAP DRIER AIR...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN. WITH A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...SAW WL
BE THE LAST TO SEE IMPROVEMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY EVENING UPDATE...BASED ON SHIP OBS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND WEBCAMS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LAKE.

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-
     267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF/KC






000
FXUS63 KAPX 270516
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
116 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO START THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH FOLLOWED BY SOME
FOG OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-72.  SOME HAIL AROUND HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRETTY
WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS
CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN...STRETCHING INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THEN TURNING WEST ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.  700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...
WITH A SECOND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SPREADING EAST FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  HAVE BEEN SEEING
PERIODIC CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
DAY...MORE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME
ADDITION DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO GET GOING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG
SURFACE WIND SHIFT.

AFOREMENTIONED MINNESOTA PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER
UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION INTO THIS
EVENING..FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...DESPITE NOT A GREAT DEAL OF HEATING TODAY...TEMPERATURES
HAVING WARMED INTO THE 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S
GENERATING A MODEST 500-1000J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE BASED ON
MODIFYING 12Z APX SOUNDING (THOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THUS FAR
TODAY HAS BEEN ELEVATED).  CUMULUS FIELD OUT THE WINDOW HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT "MUSHY" THIS AFTERNOON...SO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PLUS REMNANTS OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT RESULTS IN A PICKUP IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER THIS
EVENING BUT THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THERE. SOME OF THE CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HAIL TODAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WON`T
CONTINUE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT POP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TAPER OFF TOWARD LATE THIS
EVENING AS FORCING DEPARTS AND SHORT WAVE RIDING AND SOME LOW
LEVEL DRYING SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...LOTS OF
CLOUDS AROUND TO START AND SOME CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN LATER ON AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION TODAY (ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE ALREADY SMALL) THINK FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...NEEDED RAIN THEN ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN TO FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. PERHAPS A FEW
STORMS ON SUNDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
LOOKS SET TO RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE MOMENT...OUR MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR SUNDAY IS ROAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...IN THE FORM OF A RATHER STRONG CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
LAKES ON SUNDAY...ULTIMATELY HELPING CARVE OUT AN EVEN DEEPER
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AIR INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIR MASS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

NOW FOR A LOOK AT THE SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SOME
NEEDED RAINS ACROSS THE AREA...AS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING
STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
DROPPING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO THE PRECIP AS WELL GIVEN A RATHER SOUPY AIR MASS IN
PLACE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL COOLING...THOUGH LAPSE RATES DON`T LOOK
TO BE ANYTHING TOO GREAT. STILL...FROM A CONVECTIVE STANDPOINT...CAN
FORESEE SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL SOUTH OF M-72 (CLOSER THE "WARM
SECTOR") BENEATH AN AXIS OF STEEPER 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GAIN THE MOST TRACTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT
VERY HIGH WITH WEAKENING WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...BUT
SLOWER STORM MOTION COUPLED WITH MODEST CAPE (MLCAPE VALUES UP TO
AROUND 1200 J/KG PROVIDED WE CAN MANAGE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S) AND
PWATS UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD CERTAINLY DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS. TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
RAINFALL EXTENT AND DURATION...BUT CAN ENVISION SOME LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA STUCK ONLY AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DWINDLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BETTER FORCING WORKS THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES...WITH STEADY COLD
ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR AFTER 06Z...SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS DROPPING
BACK THROUGH THE 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LET THE COOL DOWN BEGIN! THE CALENDAR MAY SAY
LATE JULY BUT TEMPS SHOULD FEEL MORE LIKE MID SEPTEMBER AS QUITE THE
CHILLY AIR MASS ALOFT (H8 TEMPS AVERAGING 5-7C) DROPS INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHERLY FLOW. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER
CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE
DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD EXPAND THROUGH THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME SPOTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY SUN ANGLE AND
INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS OF HEATING
AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME
SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM
WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY
AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY COME
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER
SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW BOOST BACK
THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF ANY TRUE
SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOP THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
NRN MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS A RATHER
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SE OUT OF S CENTRAL CANADA INTO MICHIGAN.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEND TO SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN GRADIENT
PICKS UP IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 270516
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
116 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO START THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH FOLLOWED BY SOME
FOG OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-72.  SOME HAIL AROUND HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRETTY
WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS
CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN...STRETCHING INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THEN TURNING WEST ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.  700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...
WITH A SECOND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SPREADING EAST FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  HAVE BEEN SEEING
PERIODIC CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
DAY...MORE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME
ADDITION DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO GET GOING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG
SURFACE WIND SHIFT.

AFOREMENTIONED MINNESOTA PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER
UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION INTO THIS
EVENING..FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...DESPITE NOT A GREAT DEAL OF HEATING TODAY...TEMPERATURES
HAVING WARMED INTO THE 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S
GENERATING A MODEST 500-1000J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE BASED ON
MODIFYING 12Z APX SOUNDING (THOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THUS FAR
TODAY HAS BEEN ELEVATED).  CUMULUS FIELD OUT THE WINDOW HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT "MUSHY" THIS AFTERNOON...SO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PLUS REMNANTS OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT RESULTS IN A PICKUP IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER THIS
EVENING BUT THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THERE. SOME OF THE CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HAIL TODAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WON`T
CONTINUE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT POP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TAPER OFF TOWARD LATE THIS
EVENING AS FORCING DEPARTS AND SHORT WAVE RIDING AND SOME LOW
LEVEL DRYING SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...LOTS OF
CLOUDS AROUND TO START AND SOME CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN LATER ON AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION TODAY (ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE ALREADY SMALL) THINK FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...NEEDED RAIN THEN ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN TO FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. PERHAPS A FEW
STORMS ON SUNDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
LOOKS SET TO RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE MOMENT...OUR MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR SUNDAY IS ROAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...IN THE FORM OF A RATHER STRONG CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
LAKES ON SUNDAY...ULTIMATELY HELPING CARVE OUT AN EVEN DEEPER
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AIR INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIR MASS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

NOW FOR A LOOK AT THE SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SOME
NEEDED RAINS ACROSS THE AREA...AS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING
STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
DROPPING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO THE PRECIP AS WELL GIVEN A RATHER SOUPY AIR MASS IN
PLACE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL COOLING...THOUGH LAPSE RATES DON`T LOOK
TO BE ANYTHING TOO GREAT. STILL...FROM A CONVECTIVE STANDPOINT...CAN
FORESEE SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL SOUTH OF M-72 (CLOSER THE "WARM
SECTOR") BENEATH AN AXIS OF STEEPER 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GAIN THE MOST TRACTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT
VERY HIGH WITH WEAKENING WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...BUT
SLOWER STORM MOTION COUPLED WITH MODEST CAPE (MLCAPE VALUES UP TO
AROUND 1200 J/KG PROVIDED WE CAN MANAGE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S) AND
PWATS UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD CERTAINLY DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS. TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
RAINFALL EXTENT AND DURATION...BUT CAN ENVISION SOME LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA STUCK ONLY AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DWINDLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BETTER FORCING WORKS THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES...WITH STEADY COLD
ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR AFTER 06Z...SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS DROPPING
BACK THROUGH THE 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LET THE COOL DOWN BEGIN! THE CALENDAR MAY SAY
LATE JULY BUT TEMPS SHOULD FEEL MORE LIKE MID SEPTEMBER AS QUITE THE
CHILLY AIR MASS ALOFT (H8 TEMPS AVERAGING 5-7C) DROPS INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHERLY FLOW. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER
CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE
DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD EXPAND THROUGH THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME SPOTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY SUN ANGLE AND
INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS OF HEATING
AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME
SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM
WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY
AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY COME
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER
SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW BOOST BACK
THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF ANY TRUE
SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOP THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
NRN MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS A RATHER
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SE OUT OF S CENTRAL CANADA INTO MICHIGAN.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEND TO SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN GRADIENT
PICKS UP IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 270516
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
116 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO START THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH FOLLOWED BY SOME
FOG OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-72.  SOME HAIL AROUND HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRETTY
WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS
CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN...STRETCHING INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THEN TURNING WEST ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.  700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...
WITH A SECOND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SPREADING EAST FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  HAVE BEEN SEEING
PERIODIC CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
DAY...MORE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME
ADDITION DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO GET GOING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG
SURFACE WIND SHIFT.

AFOREMENTIONED MINNESOTA PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER
UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION INTO THIS
EVENING..FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...DESPITE NOT A GREAT DEAL OF HEATING TODAY...TEMPERATURES
HAVING WARMED INTO THE 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S
GENERATING A MODEST 500-1000J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE BASED ON
MODIFYING 12Z APX SOUNDING (THOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THUS FAR
TODAY HAS BEEN ELEVATED).  CUMULUS FIELD OUT THE WINDOW HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT "MUSHY" THIS AFTERNOON...SO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PLUS REMNANTS OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT RESULTS IN A PICKUP IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER THIS
EVENING BUT THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THERE. SOME OF THE CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HAIL TODAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WON`T
CONTINUE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT POP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TAPER OFF TOWARD LATE THIS
EVENING AS FORCING DEPARTS AND SHORT WAVE RIDING AND SOME LOW
LEVEL DRYING SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...LOTS OF
CLOUDS AROUND TO START AND SOME CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN LATER ON AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION TODAY (ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE ALREADY SMALL) THINK FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...NEEDED RAIN THEN ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN TO FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. PERHAPS A FEW
STORMS ON SUNDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
LOOKS SET TO RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE MOMENT...OUR MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR SUNDAY IS ROAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...IN THE FORM OF A RATHER STRONG CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
LAKES ON SUNDAY...ULTIMATELY HELPING CARVE OUT AN EVEN DEEPER
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AIR INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIR MASS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

NOW FOR A LOOK AT THE SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SOME
NEEDED RAINS ACROSS THE AREA...AS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING
STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
DROPPING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO THE PRECIP AS WELL GIVEN A RATHER SOUPY AIR MASS IN
PLACE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL COOLING...THOUGH LAPSE RATES DON`T LOOK
TO BE ANYTHING TOO GREAT. STILL...FROM A CONVECTIVE STANDPOINT...CAN
FORESEE SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL SOUTH OF M-72 (CLOSER THE "WARM
SECTOR") BENEATH AN AXIS OF STEEPER 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GAIN THE MOST TRACTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT
VERY HIGH WITH WEAKENING WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...BUT
SLOWER STORM MOTION COUPLED WITH MODEST CAPE (MLCAPE VALUES UP TO
AROUND 1200 J/KG PROVIDED WE CAN MANAGE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S) AND
PWATS UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD CERTAINLY DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS. TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
RAINFALL EXTENT AND DURATION...BUT CAN ENVISION SOME LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA STUCK ONLY AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DWINDLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BETTER FORCING WORKS THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES...WITH STEADY COLD
ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR AFTER 06Z...SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS DROPPING
BACK THROUGH THE 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LET THE COOL DOWN BEGIN! THE CALENDAR MAY SAY
LATE JULY BUT TEMPS SHOULD FEEL MORE LIKE MID SEPTEMBER AS QUITE THE
CHILLY AIR MASS ALOFT (H8 TEMPS AVERAGING 5-7C) DROPS INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHERLY FLOW. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER
CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE
DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD EXPAND THROUGH THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME SPOTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY SUN ANGLE AND
INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS OF HEATING
AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME
SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM
WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY
AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY COME
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER
SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW BOOST BACK
THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF ANY TRUE
SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOP THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
NRN MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS A RATHER
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SE OUT OF S CENTRAL CANADA INTO MICHIGAN.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEND TO SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN GRADIENT
PICKS UP IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 270516
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
116 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO START THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH FOLLOWED BY SOME
FOG OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-72.  SOME HAIL AROUND HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRETTY
WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS
CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN...STRETCHING INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THEN TURNING WEST ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.  700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...
WITH A SECOND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SPREADING EAST FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  HAVE BEEN SEEING
PERIODIC CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
DAY...MORE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME
ADDITION DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO GET GOING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG
SURFACE WIND SHIFT.

AFOREMENTIONED MINNESOTA PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER
UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION INTO THIS
EVENING..FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...DESPITE NOT A GREAT DEAL OF HEATING TODAY...TEMPERATURES
HAVING WARMED INTO THE 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S
GENERATING A MODEST 500-1000J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE BASED ON
MODIFYING 12Z APX SOUNDING (THOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THUS FAR
TODAY HAS BEEN ELEVATED).  CUMULUS FIELD OUT THE WINDOW HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT "MUSHY" THIS AFTERNOON...SO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PLUS REMNANTS OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT RESULTS IN A PICKUP IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER THIS
EVENING BUT THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THERE. SOME OF THE CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HAIL TODAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WON`T
CONTINUE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT POP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TAPER OFF TOWARD LATE THIS
EVENING AS FORCING DEPARTS AND SHORT WAVE RIDING AND SOME LOW
LEVEL DRYING SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...LOTS OF
CLOUDS AROUND TO START AND SOME CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN LATER ON AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION TODAY (ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE ALREADY SMALL) THINK FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...NEEDED RAIN THEN ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN TO FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. PERHAPS A FEW
STORMS ON SUNDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
LOOKS SET TO RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE MOMENT...OUR MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR SUNDAY IS ROAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...IN THE FORM OF A RATHER STRONG CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
LAKES ON SUNDAY...ULTIMATELY HELPING CARVE OUT AN EVEN DEEPER
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AIR INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIR MASS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

NOW FOR A LOOK AT THE SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SOME
NEEDED RAINS ACROSS THE AREA...AS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING
STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
DROPPING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO THE PRECIP AS WELL GIVEN A RATHER SOUPY AIR MASS IN
PLACE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL COOLING...THOUGH LAPSE RATES DON`T LOOK
TO BE ANYTHING TOO GREAT. STILL...FROM A CONVECTIVE STANDPOINT...CAN
FORESEE SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL SOUTH OF M-72 (CLOSER THE "WARM
SECTOR") BENEATH AN AXIS OF STEEPER 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GAIN THE MOST TRACTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT
VERY HIGH WITH WEAKENING WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...BUT
SLOWER STORM MOTION COUPLED WITH MODEST CAPE (MLCAPE VALUES UP TO
AROUND 1200 J/KG PROVIDED WE CAN MANAGE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S) AND
PWATS UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD CERTAINLY DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS. TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
RAINFALL EXTENT AND DURATION...BUT CAN ENVISION SOME LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA STUCK ONLY AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DWINDLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BETTER FORCING WORKS THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES...WITH STEADY COLD
ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR AFTER 06Z...SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS DROPPING
BACK THROUGH THE 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LET THE COOL DOWN BEGIN! THE CALENDAR MAY SAY
LATE JULY BUT TEMPS SHOULD FEEL MORE LIKE MID SEPTEMBER AS QUITE THE
CHILLY AIR MASS ALOFT (H8 TEMPS AVERAGING 5-7C) DROPS INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHERLY FLOW. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER
CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE
DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD EXPAND THROUGH THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME SPOTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY SUN ANGLE AND
INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS OF HEATING
AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME
SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM
WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY
AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY COME
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER
SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW BOOST BACK
THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF ANY TRUE
SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOP THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
NRN MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS A RATHER
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SE OUT OF S CENTRAL CANADA INTO MICHIGAN.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEND TO SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN GRADIENT
PICKS UP IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KDTX 270358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE NOW THAT SHORTWAVE HAS RACED EAST
OF THE AREA...THE NEXT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS MAIN STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS...EXPECT SOME FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS SKIES CLEAR
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. WILL TIME CONVECTION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...STARTING 18Z-20Z AND ENDING
04Z-06Z...WITH MORE MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE WITHIN DEVELOPING NORTH
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN AREA.

FOR DTW...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. SHRAS/TSRAS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS
APPROACHING STRONG SHORTWAVE INDUCES LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 20Z
SUNDAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 04Z-06Z SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
ALSO EVIDENT BY CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AS THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. HI-RES MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA DIVES SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 1-2 J/G OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND
50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
WORKS ITS WAY EAST...DRIER COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL INCH NORTH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY ALLOWING DETROIT
TO SNEAK INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST JULY`S ON RECORD...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AROUND 70.1 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOISTEN LADEN
AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY/DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIGHT CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY THROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MODERATELY DESTABILIZE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MAIN JET CORE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN THE 0-1 KM WIND SHEAR
PREDOMINATELY BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...EXCEPT TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES. FOR MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AROUND 11 C SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE....AND 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR ATTAINABLE.

THE 500 MB LOW/COLD CORE (-15 C AT 500 MB) SHOULD ALREADY BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEARS LOW AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY CAPS MAXES AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMP OF 7-8 C ADVERTISED.

MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE 40S BASED
ON THE SURFACE DEW PTS...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
NORTHERLY GRADIENT/MIXING TO KEEP MINS AROUND 50/LOWER
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION WITH LAKE HURON
INFLUENCE.

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXTENSION OF THE CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE
DOMINATED BY BELOW-NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS...TRANSLATING
INTO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL IN PLACE
AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO BE COMMON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST IN THE AREA
OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL
OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270352
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1152 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE IN MUCH COLDER AIR TO START NEXT WEEK... WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO INCLUDE SCATTERED TSRA THIS
EVENING. A SOUTHWARD GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS REMAINED INTACT AS
IT APPROACHES THE FAR NE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FCST FOCUS IS ON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY
AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG DIVES
SOUTHEAST. MAIN WINDOW/AREA OF CONCERN SUNDAY IS FROM ROUGHLY 11 AM
TO 5 PM /15Z-21Z/ SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR. THIS IS WHEN/WHERE MAX
INSTABILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG IS PROGGED AND WILL BE WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

FCST SOUNDINGS 15Z-18Z SUNDAY SOUTHEAST OF GRR EXHIBIT FAT
CAPE PROFILES INDICATIVE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT. APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW/COLDER TEMPS ALOFT LEADS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHILE SFC DEW PTS ARE STILL 65-70F. THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST WITH THE INITIAL CELLS THAT DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP A COLD POOL.

THE THREAT FOR SVR WX APPEARS TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS BOTH CAPE
AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OFF. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
WEST THEN NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED ACROSS NRN LWR MI AND THE THUMB AREA. MODELS FOCUS BEST
QPF AND MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH...
ROUGHLY TVC TO MBS TO PT HURON. THIS INCLUDES THE CLARE/MT
PLEASANT/ALMA AREAS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
OTHERWISE RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 0.25 TO 0.50... WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MUCH MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE DAY IN THE SW
HALF OF THE CWFA AS STABILIZING WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AND DEW PTS BEGIN TO FALL.

LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY/COOL
CONDITIONS MONDAY. CU/STRATOCU COULD BE EXTENSIVE MONDAY GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SLIGHTLY TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MY THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE 00Z TAFS...FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TO CLEAR THEM OUT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS I THROUGH THEY WOULD. NOW FOG IS
DEVELOPING... BIV IS ALREADY 2 MILES IN FOG. MANY OTHER LOCATIONS
HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING THIS IS A GOOD SET OF FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE RAP
MODEL SHOW MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96 WITH FOG BY 12Z.

AS FOR THE CONVECTION...WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND CONSIDERING THERE IS
ALREADY CONVECTION OVER NW WI...NORTH INTO ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW IT WOULD SEEM THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THERE WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AT ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY. I TIMED THE SHOWER FROM WEST
TO EAST. I WOULD THINK THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY BY MID
MORNING AT THE SYSTEM INCREASES MIXING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 30 KTS. WAVES
OF 4 TO 7 FT EXPECTED... HIGHEST SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

PATCHY FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOVE OVER COLD WATER
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270352
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1152 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE IN MUCH COLDER AIR TO START NEXT WEEK... WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO INCLUDE SCATTERED TSRA THIS
EVENING. A SOUTHWARD GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS REMAINED INTACT AS
IT APPROACHES THE FAR NE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FCST FOCUS IS ON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY
AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG DIVES
SOUTHEAST. MAIN WINDOW/AREA OF CONCERN SUNDAY IS FROM ROUGHLY 11 AM
TO 5 PM /15Z-21Z/ SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR. THIS IS WHEN/WHERE MAX
INSTABILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG IS PROGGED AND WILL BE WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

FCST SOUNDINGS 15Z-18Z SUNDAY SOUTHEAST OF GRR EXHIBIT FAT
CAPE PROFILES INDICATIVE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT. APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW/COLDER TEMPS ALOFT LEADS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHILE SFC DEW PTS ARE STILL 65-70F. THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST WITH THE INITIAL CELLS THAT DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP A COLD POOL.

THE THREAT FOR SVR WX APPEARS TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS BOTH CAPE
AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OFF. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
WEST THEN NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED ACROSS NRN LWR MI AND THE THUMB AREA. MODELS FOCUS BEST
QPF AND MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH...
ROUGHLY TVC TO MBS TO PT HURON. THIS INCLUDES THE CLARE/MT
PLEASANT/ALMA AREAS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
OTHERWISE RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 0.25 TO 0.50... WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MUCH MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE DAY IN THE SW
HALF OF THE CWFA AS STABILIZING WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AND DEW PTS BEGIN TO FALL.

LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY/COOL
CONDITIONS MONDAY. CU/STRATOCU COULD BE EXTENSIVE MONDAY GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SLIGHTLY TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MY THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE 00Z TAFS...FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TO CLEAR THEM OUT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS I THROUGH THEY WOULD. NOW FOG IS
DEVELOPING... BIV IS ALREADY 2 MILES IN FOG. MANY OTHER LOCATIONS
HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING THIS IS A GOOD SET OF FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE RAP
MODEL SHOW MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96 WITH FOG BY 12Z.

AS FOR THE CONVECTION...WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND CONSIDERING THERE IS
ALREADY CONVECTION OVER NW WI...NORTH INTO ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW IT WOULD SEEM THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THERE WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AT ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY. I TIMED THE SHOWER FROM WEST
TO EAST. I WOULD THINK THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY BY MID
MORNING AT THE SYSTEM INCREASES MIXING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 30 KTS. WAVES
OF 4 TO 7 FT EXPECTED... HIGHEST SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

PATCHY FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOVE OVER COLD WATER
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KMQT 270312
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1112 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A TS AT IWD...WL ARRIVE W-E
BY LATE EVNG AT IWD AND AT SAW IN THE EARLY MRNG HRS IN ADVANCE OF A
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR THRU THE NGT FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHOWRS AND THEN TO IFR ON SUN MRNG WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE
NE COMPONENT OFF LK SUP. THE STEADY NNE WIND WL TAP DRIER AIR...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING SUN AFTN...LAST AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY EVENING UPDATE...BASED ON SHIP OBS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND WEBCAMS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LAKE.

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF/KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 270312
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1112 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A TS AT IWD...WL ARRIVE W-E
BY LATE EVNG AT IWD AND AT SAW IN THE EARLY MRNG HRS IN ADVANCE OF A
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR THRU THE NGT FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHOWRS AND THEN TO IFR ON SUN MRNG WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE
NE COMPONENT OFF LK SUP. THE STEADY NNE WIND WL TAP DRIER AIR...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING SUN AFTN...LAST AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY EVENING UPDATE...BASED ON SHIP OBS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND WEBCAMS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LAKE.

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF/KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 270309
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1109 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A TS AT IWD...WL ARRIVE W-E
BY LATE EVNG AT IWD AND AT SAW IN THE EARLY MRNG HRS IN ADVANCE OF A
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR THRU THE NGT FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHOWRS AND THEN TO IFR ON SUN MRNG WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE
NE COMPONENT OFF LK SUP. THE STEADY NNE WIND WL TAP DRIER AIR...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING SUN AFTN...LAST AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 270309
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1109 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A TS AT IWD...WL ARRIVE W-E
BY LATE EVNG AT IWD AND AT SAW IN THE EARLY MRNG HRS IN ADVANCE OF A
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR THRU THE NGT FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHOWRS AND THEN TO IFR ON SUN MRNG WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE
NE COMPONENT OFF LK SUP. THE STEADY NNE WIND WL TAP DRIER AIR...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING SUN AFTN...LAST AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KGRR 270016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
816 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE IN MUCH COLDER AIR TO START NEXT WEEK... WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO INCLUDE SCATTERED TSRA THIS
EVENING. A SOUTHWARD GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS REMAINED INTACT AS
IT APPROACHES THE FAR NE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FCST FOCUS IS ON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY
AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG DIVES
SOUTHEAST. MAIN WINDOW/AREA OF CONCERN SUNDAY IS FROM ROUGHLY 11 AM
TO 5 PM /15Z-21Z/ SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR. THIS IS WHEN/WHERE MAX
INSTABILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG IS PROGGED AND WILL BE WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

FCST SOUNDINGS 15Z-18Z SUNDAY SOUTHEAST OF GRR EXHIBIT FAT
CAPE PROFILES INDICATIVE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT. APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW/COLDER TEMPS ALOFT LEADS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHILE SFC DEW PTS ARE STILL 65-70F. THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST WITH THE INITIAL CELLS THAT DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP A COLD POOL.

THE THREAT FOR SVR WX APPEARS TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS BOTH CAPE
AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OFF. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
WEST THEN NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED ACROSS NRN LWR MI AND THE THUMB AREA. MODELS FOCUS BEST
QPF AND MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH...
ROUGHLY TVC TO MBS TO PT HURON. THIS INCLUDES THE CLARE/MT
PLEASANT/ALMA AREAS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
OTHERWISE RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 0.25 TO 0.50... WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MUCH MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE DAY IN THE SW
HALF OF THE CWFA AS STABILIZING WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AND DEW PTS BEGIN TO FALL.

LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY/COOL
CONDITIONS MONDAY. CU/STRATOCU COULD BE EXTENSIVE MONDAY GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SLIGHTLY TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A COMPLEX FORECAST WITH FOG EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY OVER THE
I-94 TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND VERY MOIST AIR IN
PLACE FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY MORNING.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROOPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY WILL RUN INTO A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
ONCE IT ARRIVES OVER THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. I WOULD EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY I EXPECT CLEARING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SO I ENDED THE SHOWERS AND BROUGHT VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITE AFTER 20Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 30 KTS. WAVES
OF 4 TO 7 FT EXPECTED... HIGHEST SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

PATCHY FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOVE OVER COLD WATER
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 270016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
816 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE IN MUCH COLDER AIR TO START NEXT WEEK... WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO INCLUDE SCATTERED TSRA THIS
EVENING. A SOUTHWARD GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS REMAINED INTACT AS
IT APPROACHES THE FAR NE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FCST FOCUS IS ON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY
AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG DIVES
SOUTHEAST. MAIN WINDOW/AREA OF CONCERN SUNDAY IS FROM ROUGHLY 11 AM
TO 5 PM /15Z-21Z/ SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR. THIS IS WHEN/WHERE MAX
INSTABILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG IS PROGGED AND WILL BE WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

FCST SOUNDINGS 15Z-18Z SUNDAY SOUTHEAST OF GRR EXHIBIT FAT
CAPE PROFILES INDICATIVE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT. APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW/COLDER TEMPS ALOFT LEADS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHILE SFC DEW PTS ARE STILL 65-70F. THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST WITH THE INITIAL CELLS THAT DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP A COLD POOL.

THE THREAT FOR SVR WX APPEARS TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS BOTH CAPE
AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OFF. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
WEST THEN NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED ACROSS NRN LWR MI AND THE THUMB AREA. MODELS FOCUS BEST
QPF AND MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH...
ROUGHLY TVC TO MBS TO PT HURON. THIS INCLUDES THE CLARE/MT
PLEASANT/ALMA AREAS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
OTHERWISE RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 0.25 TO 0.50... WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MUCH MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE DAY IN THE SW
HALF OF THE CWFA AS STABILIZING WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AND DEW PTS BEGIN TO FALL.

LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY/COOL
CONDITIONS MONDAY. CU/STRATOCU COULD BE EXTENSIVE MONDAY GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SLIGHTLY TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A COMPLEX FORECAST WITH FOG EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY OVER THE
I-94 TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND VERY MOIST AIR IN
PLACE FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY MORNING.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROOPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY WILL RUN INTO A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
ONCE IT ARRIVES OVER THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. I WOULD EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY I EXPECT CLEARING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SO I ENDED THE SHOWERS AND BROUGHT VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITE AFTER 20Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 30 KTS. WAVES
OF 4 TO 7 FT EXPECTED... HIGHEST SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

PATCHY FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOVE OVER COLD WATER
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 262344
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
744 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO START THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH FOLLOWED BY SOME
FOG OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-72.  SOME HAIL AROUND HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRETTY
WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS
CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN...STRETCHING INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THEN TURNING WEST ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.  700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...
WITH A SECOND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SPREADING EAST FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  HAVE BEEN SEEING
PERIODIC CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
DAY...MORE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME
ADDITION DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO GET GOING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG
SURFACE WIND SHIFT.

AFOREMENTIONED MINNESOTA PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER
UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION INTO THIS
EVENING..FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...DESPITE NOT A GREAT DEAL OF HEATING TODAY...TEMPERATURES
HAVING WARMED INTO THE 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S
GENERATING A MODEST 500-1000J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE BASED ON
MODIFYING 12Z APX SOUNDING (THOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THUS FAR
TODAY HAS BEEN ELEVATED).  CUMULUS FIELD OUT THE WINDOW HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT "MUSHY" THIS AFTERNOON...SO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PLUS REMNANTS OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT RESULTS IN A PICKUP IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER THIS
EVENING BUT THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THERE. SOME OF THE CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HAIL TODAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WON`T
CONTINUE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT POP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TAPER OFF TOWARD LATE THIS
EVENING AS FORCING DEPARTS AND SHORT WAVE RIDING AND SOME LOW
LEVEL DRYING SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...LOTS OF
CLOUDS AROUND TO START AND SOME CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN LATER ON AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION TODAY (ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE ALREADY SMALL) THINK FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...NEEDED RAIN THEN ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN TO FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. PERHAPS A FEW
STORMS ON SUNDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
LOOKS SET TO RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE MOMENT...OUR MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR SUNDAY IS ROAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...IN THE FORM OF A RATHER STRONG CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
LAKES ON SUNDAY...ULTIMATELY HELPING CARVE OUT AN EVEN DEEPER
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AIR INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIR MASS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

NOW FOR A LOOK AT THE SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SOME
NEEDED RAINS ACROSS THE AREA...AS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING
STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
DROPPING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO THE PRECIP AS WELL GIVEN A RATHER SOUPY AIR MASS IN
PLACE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL COOLING...THOUGH LAPSE RATES DON`T LOOK
TO BE ANYTHING TOO GREAT. STILL...FROM A CONVECTIVE STANDPOINT...CAN
FORESEE SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL SOUTH OF M-72 (CLOSER THE "WARM
SECTOR") BENEATH AN AXIS OF STEEPER 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GAIN THE MOST TRACTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT
VERY HIGH WITH WEAKENING WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...BUT
SLOWER STORM MOTION COUPLED WITH MODEST CAPE (MLCAPE VALUES UP TO
AROUND 1200 J/KG PROVIDED WE CAN MANAGE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S) AND
PWATS UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD CERTAINLY DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS. TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
RAINFALL EXTENT AND DURATION...BUT CAN ENVISION SOME LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA STUCK ONLY AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DWINDLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BETTER FORCING WORKS THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES...WITH STEADY COLD
ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR AFTER 06Z...SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS DROPPING
BACK THROUGH THE 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LET THE COOL DOWN BEGIN! THE CALENDAR MAY SAY
LATE JULY BUT TEMPS SHOULD FEEL MORE LIKE MID SEPTEMBER AS QUITE THE
CHILLY AIR MASS ALOFT (H8 TEMPS AVERAGING 5-7C) DROPS INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHERLY FLOW. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER
CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE
DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD EXPAND THROUGH THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME SPOTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY SUN ANGLE AND
INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS OF HEATING
AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME
SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM
WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY
AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY COME
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER
SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW BOOST BACK
THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF ANY TRUE
SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOP THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
NRN MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS A RATHER
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SE OUT OF S CENTRAL CANADA INTO MICHIGAN.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL LEND TO SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN GRADIENT
PICKS UP IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 262336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A TS AT IWD...WL ARRIVE W-E
BY LATE EVNG AT IWD AND AT SAW IN THE EARLY MRNG HRS IN ADVANCE OF A
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR THRU THE NGT FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHOWRS AND THEN TO IFR ON SUN MRNG WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE
NE COMPONENT OFF LK SUP. THE STEADY NNE WIND WL TAP DRIER AIR...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING SUN AFTN...LAST AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 262336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A TS AT IWD...WL ARRIVE W-E
BY LATE EVNG AT IWD AND AT SAW IN THE EARLY MRNG HRS IN ADVANCE OF A
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR THRU THE NGT FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHOWRS AND THEN TO IFR ON SUN MRNG WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE
NE COMPONENT OFF LK SUP. THE STEADY NNE WIND WL TAP DRIER AIR...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING SUN AFTN...LAST AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KGRR 262310
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
710 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE IN MUCH COLDER AIR TO START NEXT WEEK... WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FCST FOCUS IS ON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY
AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG DIVES
SOUTHEAST. MAIN WINDOW/AREA OF CONCERN SUNDAY IS FROM ROUGHLY 11 AM
TO 5 PM /15Z-21Z/ SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR. THIS IS WHEN/WHERE MAX
INSTABILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG IS PROGGED AND WILL BE WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

FCST SOUNDINGS 15Z-18Z SUNDAY SOUTHEAST OF GRR EXHIBIT FAT
CAPE PROFILES INDICATIVE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT. APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW/COLDER TEMPS ALOFT LEADS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHILE SFC DEW PTS ARE STILL 65-70F. THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST WITH THE INITIAL CELLS THAT DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP A COLD POOL.

THE THREAT FOR SVR WX APPEARS TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS BOTH CAPE
AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OFF. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
WEST THEN NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED ACROSS NRN LWR MI AND THE THUMB AREA. MODELS FOCUS BEST
QPF AND MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH...
ROUGHLY TVC TO MBS TO PT HURON. THIS INCLUDES THE CLARE/MT
PLEASANT/ALMA AREAS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
OTHERWISE RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 0.25 TO 0.50... WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MUCH MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE DAY IN THE SW
HALF OF THE CWFA AS STABILIZING WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AND DEW PTS BEGIN TO FALL.

LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY/COOL
CONDITIONS MONDAY. CU/STRATOCU COULD BE EXTENSIVE MONDAY GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SLIGHTLY TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A COMPLEX FORECAST WITH FOG EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY OVER THE
I-94 TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND VERY MOIST AIR IN
PLACE FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY MORNING.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROOPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY WILL RUN INTO A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
ONCE IT ARRIVES OVER THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. I WOULD EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY I EXPECT CLEARING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SO I ENDED THE SHOWERS AND BROUGHT VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITE AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 30 KTS. WAVES
OF 4 TO 7 FT EXPECTED... HIGHEST SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

PATCHY FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOVE OVER COLD WATER
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 262310
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
710 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE IN MUCH COLDER AIR TO START NEXT WEEK... WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FCST FOCUS IS ON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY
AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG DIVES
SOUTHEAST. MAIN WINDOW/AREA OF CONCERN SUNDAY IS FROM ROUGHLY 11 AM
TO 5 PM /15Z-21Z/ SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR. THIS IS WHEN/WHERE MAX
INSTABILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG IS PROGGED AND WILL BE WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

FCST SOUNDINGS 15Z-18Z SUNDAY SOUTHEAST OF GRR EXHIBIT FAT
CAPE PROFILES INDICATIVE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT. APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW/COLDER TEMPS ALOFT LEADS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHILE SFC DEW PTS ARE STILL 65-70F. THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST WITH THE INITIAL CELLS THAT DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP A COLD POOL.

THE THREAT FOR SVR WX APPEARS TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS BOTH CAPE
AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OFF. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
WEST THEN NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED ACROSS NRN LWR MI AND THE THUMB AREA. MODELS FOCUS BEST
QPF AND MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH...
ROUGHLY TVC TO MBS TO PT HURON. THIS INCLUDES THE CLARE/MT
PLEASANT/ALMA AREAS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
OTHERWISE RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 0.25 TO 0.50... WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MUCH MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE DAY IN THE SW
HALF OF THE CWFA AS STABILIZING WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AND DEW PTS BEGIN TO FALL.

LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY/COOL
CONDITIONS MONDAY. CU/STRATOCU COULD BE EXTENSIVE MONDAY GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SLIGHTLY TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A COMPLEX FORECAST WITH FOG EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY OVER THE
I-94 TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND VERY MOIST AIR IN
PLACE FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY MORNING.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROOPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY WILL RUN INTO A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
ONCE IT ARRIVES OVER THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. I WOULD EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY I EXPECT CLEARING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SO I ENDED THE SHOWERS AND BROUGHT VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITE AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 30 KTS. WAVES
OF 4 TO 7 FT EXPECTED... HIGHEST SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

PATCHY FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOVE OVER COLD WATER
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KDTX 262258
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRAS OR ISOLATED TSRAS
EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE I 94 TERMINALS AS THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND LIFT FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACT TO
FORCE THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WHILE CONVECTION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FURTHER NORTH...THE BEST FOCUS SEEMS TO BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEARBY THE TAFS.
THE MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSRAS WILL COME BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS MAJOR SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WAVE WILL INDUCE
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA BY THIS TIME AND EXPECT
AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THIS FEATURE.

FOR DTW...A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 20Z-22Z SUNDAY AS
A STRONG SYSTEM PIVOTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 02Z THIS
EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AFTER 20Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
ALSO EVIDENT BY CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AS THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. HI-RES MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA DIVES SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 1-2 J/G OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND
50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
WORKS ITS WAY EAST...DRIER COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL INCH NORTH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY ALLOWING DETROIT
TO SNEAK INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST JULY`S ON RECORD...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AROUND 70.1 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOISTEN LADEN
AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY/DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIGHT CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY THROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MODERATELY DESTABILIZE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MAIN JET CORE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN THE 0-1 KM WIND SHEAR
PREDOMINATELY BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...EXCEPT TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES. FOR MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AROUND 11 C SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE....AND 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR ATTAINABLE.

THE 500 MB LOW/COLD CORE (-15 C AT 500 MB) SHOULD ALREADY BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEARS LOW AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY CAPS MAXES AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMP OF 7-8 C ADVERTISED.

MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE 40S BASED
ON THE SURFACE DEW PTS...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
NORTHERLY GRADIENT/MIXING TO KEEP MINS AROUND 50/LOWER
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION WITH LAKE HURON
INFLUENCE.

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXTENSION OF THE CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE
DOMINATED BY BELOW-NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS...TRANSLATING
INTO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL IN PLACE
AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO BE COMMON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST IN THE AREA
OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL
OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 262258
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRAS OR ISOLATED TSRAS
EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE I 94 TERMINALS AS THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND LIFT FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACT TO
FORCE THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WHILE CONVECTION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FURTHER NORTH...THE BEST FOCUS SEEMS TO BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEARBY THE TAFS.
THE MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSRAS WILL COME BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS MAJOR SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WAVE WILL INDUCE
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA BY THIS TIME AND EXPECT
AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THIS FEATURE.

FOR DTW...A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 20Z-22Z SUNDAY AS
A STRONG SYSTEM PIVOTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 02Z THIS
EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AFTER 20Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
ALSO EVIDENT BY CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AS THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. HI-RES MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA DIVES SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 1-2 J/G OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND
50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
WORKS ITS WAY EAST...DRIER COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL INCH NORTH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY ALLOWING DETROIT
TO SNEAK INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST JULY`S ON RECORD...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AROUND 70.1 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOISTEN LADEN
AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY/DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIGHT CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY THROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MODERATELY DESTABILIZE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MAIN JET CORE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN THE 0-1 KM WIND SHEAR
PREDOMINATELY BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...EXCEPT TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES. FOR MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AROUND 11 C SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE....AND 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR ATTAINABLE.

THE 500 MB LOW/COLD CORE (-15 C AT 500 MB) SHOULD ALREADY BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEARS LOW AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY CAPS MAXES AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMP OF 7-8 C ADVERTISED.

MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE 40S BASED
ON THE SURFACE DEW PTS...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
NORTHERLY GRADIENT/MIXING TO KEEP MINS AROUND 50/LOWER
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION WITH LAKE HURON
INFLUENCE.

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXTENSION OF THE CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE
DOMINATED BY BELOW-NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS...TRANSLATING
INTO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL IN PLACE
AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO BE COMMON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST IN THE AREA
OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL
OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KMQT 262012
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CEILINGS AND VIS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WILL SLOWLY FALL
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
S MANITOBA CROSSES THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE S OF THE 3 TAF SITES...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY TS MENTION
AT THIS TIME. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING AT CMX...WITH FAVORABLE E FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSLOPE N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT SAW BY
MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING LOWER CEILINGS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 262012
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CEILINGS AND VIS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WILL SLOWLY FALL
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
S MANITOBA CROSSES THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE S OF THE 3 TAF SITES...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY TS MENTION
AT THIS TIME. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING AT CMX...WITH FAVORABLE E FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSLOPE N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT SAW BY
MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING LOWER CEILINGS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KAPX 262000
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO START THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH FOLLOWED BY SOME
FOG OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-72.  SOME HAIL AROUND HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRETTY
WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS
CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN...STRETCHING INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THEN TURNING WEST ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.  700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...
WITH A SECOND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SPREADING EAST FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  HAVE BEEN SEEING
PERIODIC CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
DAY...MORE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME
ADDITION DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO GET GOING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG
SURFACE WIND SHIFT.

AFOREMENTIONED MINNESOTA PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER
UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION INTO THIS
EVENING..FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...DESPITE NOT A GREAT DEAL OF HEATING TODAY...TEMPERATURES
HAVING WARMED INTO THE 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S
GENERATING A MODEST 500-1000J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE BASED ON
MODIFYING 12Z APX SOUNDING (THOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THUS FAR
TODAY HAS BEEN ELEVATED).  CUMULUS FIELD OUT THE WINDOW HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT "MUSHY" THIS AFTERNOON...SO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PLUS REMNANTS OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT RESULTS IN A PICKUP IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER THIS
EVENING BUT THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THERE. SOME OF THE CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HAIL TODAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WON`T
CONTINUE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT POP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TAPER OFF TOWARD LATE THIS
EVENING AS FORCING DEPARTS AND SHORT WAVE RIDING AND SOME LOW
LEVEL DRYING SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...LOTS OF
CLOUDS AROUND TO START AND SOME CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN LATER ON AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION TODAY (ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE ALREADY SMALL) THINK FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...NEEDED RAIN THEN ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN TO FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. PERHAPS A FEW
STORMS ON SUNDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
LOOKS SET TO RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE MOMENT...OUR MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR SUNDAY IS ROAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...IN THE FORM OF A RATHER STRONG CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
LAKES ON SUNDAY...ULTIMATELY HELPING CARVE OUT AN EVEN DEEPER
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AIR INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIR MASS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

NOW FOR A LOOK AT THE SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SOME
NEEDED RAINS ACROSS THE AREA...AS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING
STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
DROPPING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO THE PRECIP AS WELL GIVEN A RATHER SOUPY AIR MASS IN
PLACE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL COOLING...THOUGH LAPSE RATES DON`T LOOK
TO BE ANYTHING TOO GREAT. STILL...FROM A CONVECTIVE STANDPOINT...CAN
FORESEE SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL SOUTH OF M-72 (CLOSER THE "WARM
SECTOR") BENEATH AN AXIS OF STEEPER 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GAIN THE MOST TRACTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT
VERY HIGH WITH WEAKENING WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...BUT
SLOWER STORM MOTION COUPLED WITH MODEST CAPE (MLCAPE VALUES UP TO
AROUND 1200 J/KG PROVIDED WE CAN MANAGE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S) AND
PWATS UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD CERTAINLY DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS. TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
RAINFALL EXTENT AND DURATION...BUT CAN ENVISION SOME LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA STUCK ONLY AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DWINDLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BETTER FORCING WORKS THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES...WITH STEADY COLD
ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR AFTER 06Z...SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS DROPPING
BACK THROUGH THE 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LET THE COOL DOWN BEGIN! THE CALENDAR MAY SAY
LATE JULY BUT TEMPS SHOULD FEEL MORE LIKE MID SEPTEMBER AS QUITE THE
CHILLY AIR MASS ALOFT (H8 TEMPS AVERAGING 5-7C) DROPS INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHERLY FLOW. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER
CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE
DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD EXPAND THROUGH THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME SPOTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY SUN ANGLE AND
INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS OF HEATING
AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME
SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM
WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY
AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY COME
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER
SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW BOOST BACK
THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF ANY TRUE
SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN GRADIENT
PICKS UP IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 262000
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO START THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH FOLLOWED BY SOME
FOG OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-72.  SOME HAIL AROUND HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRETTY
WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS
CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN...STRETCHING INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THEN TURNING WEST ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.  700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...
WITH A SECOND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SPREADING EAST FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  HAVE BEEN SEEING
PERIODIC CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
DAY...MORE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME
ADDITION DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO GET GOING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG
SURFACE WIND SHIFT.

AFOREMENTIONED MINNESOTA PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER
UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION INTO THIS
EVENING..FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...DESPITE NOT A GREAT DEAL OF HEATING TODAY...TEMPERATURES
HAVING WARMED INTO THE 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S
GENERATING A MODEST 500-1000J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE BASED ON
MODIFYING 12Z APX SOUNDING (THOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THUS FAR
TODAY HAS BEEN ELEVATED).  CUMULUS FIELD OUT THE WINDOW HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT "MUSHY" THIS AFTERNOON...SO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PLUS REMNANTS OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT RESULTS IN A PICKUP IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER THIS
EVENING BUT THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THERE. SOME OF THE CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HAIL TODAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WON`T
CONTINUE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT POP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TAPER OFF TOWARD LATE THIS
EVENING AS FORCING DEPARTS AND SHORT WAVE RIDING AND SOME LOW
LEVEL DRYING SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...LOTS OF
CLOUDS AROUND TO START AND SOME CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN LATER ON AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION TODAY (ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE ALREADY SMALL) THINK FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...NEEDED RAIN THEN ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN TO FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. PERHAPS A FEW
STORMS ON SUNDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
LOOKS SET TO RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE MOMENT...OUR MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR SUNDAY IS ROAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...IN THE FORM OF A RATHER STRONG CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
LAKES ON SUNDAY...ULTIMATELY HELPING CARVE OUT AN EVEN DEEPER
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AIR INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIR MASS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

NOW FOR A LOOK AT THE SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SOME
NEEDED RAINS ACROSS THE AREA...AS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING
STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
DROPPING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO THE PRECIP AS WELL GIVEN A RATHER SOUPY AIR MASS IN
PLACE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL COOLING...THOUGH LAPSE RATES DON`T LOOK
TO BE ANYTHING TOO GREAT. STILL...FROM A CONVECTIVE STANDPOINT...CAN
FORESEE SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL SOUTH OF M-72 (CLOSER THE "WARM
SECTOR") BENEATH AN AXIS OF STEEPER 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GAIN THE MOST TRACTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT
VERY HIGH WITH WEAKENING WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...BUT
SLOWER STORM MOTION COUPLED WITH MODEST CAPE (MLCAPE VALUES UP TO
AROUND 1200 J/KG PROVIDED WE CAN MANAGE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S) AND
PWATS UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD CERTAINLY DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS. TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
RAINFALL EXTENT AND DURATION...BUT CAN ENVISION SOME LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA STUCK ONLY AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DWINDLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BETTER FORCING WORKS THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES...WITH STEADY COLD
ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR AFTER 06Z...SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS DROPPING
BACK THROUGH THE 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LET THE COOL DOWN BEGIN! THE CALENDAR MAY SAY
LATE JULY BUT TEMPS SHOULD FEEL MORE LIKE MID SEPTEMBER AS QUITE THE
CHILLY AIR MASS ALOFT (H8 TEMPS AVERAGING 5-7C) DROPS INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHERLY FLOW. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER
CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE
DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD EXPAND THROUGH THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME SPOTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY SUN ANGLE AND
INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS OF HEATING
AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME
SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM
WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY
AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY COME
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER
SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW BOOST BACK
THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF ANY TRUE
SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN GRADIENT
PICKS UP IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB









000
FXUS63 KDTX 261928
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
ALSO EVIDENT BY CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AS THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. HI-RES MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA DIVES SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 1-2 J/G OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND
50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
WORKS ITS WAY EAST...DRIER COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL INCH NORTH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY ALLOWING DETROIT
TO SNEAK INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST JULY`S ON RECORD...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AROUND 70.1 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOISTEN LADEN
AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY/DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIGHT CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY THROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MODERATELY DESTABILIZE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MAIN JET CORE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN THE 0-1 KM WIND SHEAR
PREDOMINATELY BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...EXCEPT TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES. FOR MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AROUND 11 C SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE....AND 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR ATTAINABLE.

THE 500 MB LOW/COLD CORE (-15 C AT 500 MB) SHOULD ALREADY BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEARS LOW AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY CAPS MAXES AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMP OF 7-8 C ADVERTISED.

MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE 40S BASED
ON THE SURFACE DEW PTS...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
NORTHERLY GRADIENT/MIXING TO KEEP MINS AROUND 50/LOWER
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION WITH LAKE HURON
INFLUENCE.

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXTENSION OF THE CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE
DOMINATED BY BELOW-NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS...TRANSLATING
INTO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL IN PLACE
AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO BE COMMON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST IN THE AREA
OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL
OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 134 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL BRING CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN ACTIVITY HITTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS AS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS SHOW A BURST OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 2300Z...THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES
HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS. DESPITE THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA...TSRA COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT REDUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM WINDS AND AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER ALLOW SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYTIME FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE IN THE EARLY EVENING (20-23Z).

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
  AND THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 261928
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
ALSO EVIDENT BY CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AS THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. HI-RES MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA DIVES SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 1-2 J/G OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND
50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
WORKS ITS WAY EAST...DRIER COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL INCH NORTH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY ALLOWING DETROIT
TO SNEAK INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST JULY`S ON RECORD...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AROUND 70.1 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOISTEN LADEN
AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY/DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIGHT CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY THROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MODERATELY DESTABILIZE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MAIN JET CORE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN THE 0-1 KM WIND SHEAR
PREDOMINATELY BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...EXCEPT TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES. FOR MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AROUND 11 C SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE....AND 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR ATTAINABLE.

THE 500 MB LOW/COLD CORE (-15 C AT 500 MB) SHOULD ALREADY BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEARS LOW AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY CAPS MAXES AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMP OF 7-8 C ADVERTISED.

MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE 40S BASED
ON THE SURFACE DEW PTS...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
NORTHERLY GRADIENT/MIXING TO KEEP MINS AROUND 50/LOWER
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION WITH LAKE HURON
INFLUENCE.

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXTENSION OF THE CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE
DOMINATED BY BELOW-NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS...TRANSLATING
INTO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL IN PLACE
AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO BE COMMON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST IN THE AREA
OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL
OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 134 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL BRING CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN ACTIVITY HITTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS AS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS SHOW A BURST OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 2300Z...THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES
HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS. DESPITE THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA...TSRA COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT REDUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM WINDS AND AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER ALLOW SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYTIME FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE IN THE EARLY EVENING (20-23Z).

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
  AND THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 261928
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
ALSO EVIDENT BY CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AS THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. HI-RES MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA DIVES SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 1-2 J/G OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND
50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
WORKS ITS WAY EAST...DRIER COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL INCH NORTH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY ALLOWING DETROIT
TO SNEAK INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST JULY`S ON RECORD...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AROUND 70.1 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOISTEN LADEN
AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY/DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIGHT CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY THROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MODERATELY DESTABILIZE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MAIN JET CORE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN THE 0-1 KM WIND SHEAR
PREDOMINATELY BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...EXCEPT TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES. FOR MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AROUND 11 C SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE....AND 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR ATTAINABLE.

THE 500 MB LOW/COLD CORE (-15 C AT 500 MB) SHOULD ALREADY BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEARS LOW AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY CAPS MAXES AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMP OF 7-8 C ADVERTISED.

MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE 40S BASED
ON THE SURFACE DEW PTS...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
NORTHERLY GRADIENT/MIXING TO KEEP MINS AROUND 50/LOWER
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION WITH LAKE HURON
INFLUENCE.

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXTENSION OF THE CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE
DOMINATED BY BELOW-NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS...TRANSLATING
INTO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL IN PLACE
AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO BE COMMON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST IN THE AREA
OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL
OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 134 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL BRING CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN ACTIVITY HITTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS AS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS SHOW A BURST OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 2300Z...THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES
HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS. DESPITE THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA...TSRA COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT REDUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM WINDS AND AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER ALLOW SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYTIME FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE IN THE EARLY EVENING (20-23Z).

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
  AND THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 261928
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
ALSO EVIDENT BY CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AS THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. HI-RES MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA DIVES SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 1-2 J/G OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND
50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
WORKS ITS WAY EAST...DRIER COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL INCH NORTH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY ALLOWING DETROIT
TO SNEAK INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST JULY`S ON RECORD...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AROUND 70.1 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOISTEN LADEN
AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY/DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIGHT CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY THROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MODERATELY DESTABILIZE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MAIN JET CORE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN THE 0-1 KM WIND SHEAR
PREDOMINATELY BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...EXCEPT TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES. FOR MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AROUND 11 C SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE....AND 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR ATTAINABLE.

THE 500 MB LOW/COLD CORE (-15 C AT 500 MB) SHOULD ALREADY BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEARS LOW AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY CAPS MAXES AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMP OF 7-8 C ADVERTISED.

MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE 40S BASED
ON THE SURFACE DEW PTS...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
NORTHERLY GRADIENT/MIXING TO KEEP MINS AROUND 50/LOWER
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION WITH LAKE HURON
INFLUENCE.

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXTENSION OF THE CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE
DOMINATED BY BELOW-NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS...TRANSLATING
INTO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL IN PLACE
AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO BE COMMON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST IN THE AREA
OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL
OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 134 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL BRING CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN ACTIVITY HITTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS AS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS SHOW A BURST OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 2300Z...THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES
HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS. DESPITE THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA...TSRA COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT REDUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM WINDS AND AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER ALLOW SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYTIME FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE IN THE EARLY EVENING (20-23Z).

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
  AND THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KMQT 261925
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)

LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AM WITH AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
PUSHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/MN ARROWHEAD
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LOSE STEAM AS IT DRIFTS TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
WILL BRING TO AN END ANY PRECIPITATION THAT PERSISTS. WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS WITH INCREASE MIXING ON THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO
DECENT 850-500 MB Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE...AREA TO SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY EXCEPT FOR FAR EAST WHERE CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGEST.
STILL LOTS OF MOISTURE AROUND CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
ALTHOUGH THE WEST WILL MIX OUT QUITE WELL THUS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP AS LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP AND
MOVE INLAND. WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 16 C OVER THE WI
BORDER REGION AND WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF HOLDING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECT LOWER/MID 80S ALONG AREAS FAVORED BY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WITH SOME MODERATION ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. COMBINATION OF SFC FRONT AND DECENT 850-500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES AFTER MAX HEATING WITH MU
CAPES ON THE WANE BY THE TIME THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. STILL
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AFTER THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVERNIGHT WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD
AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDING OFF BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CEILINGS AND VIS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WILL SLOWLY FALL
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
S MANITOBA CROSSES THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE S OF THE 3 TAF SITES...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY TS MENTION
AT THIS TIME. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING AT CMX...WITH FAVORABLE E FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSLOPE N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT SAW BY
MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING LOWER CEILINGS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261921
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE IN MUCH COLDER AIR TO START NEXT WEEK... WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FCST FOCUS IS ON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY
AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG DIVES
SOUTHEAST. MAIN WINDOW/AREA OF CONCERN SUNDAY IS FROM ROUGHLY 11 AM
TO 5 PM /15Z-21Z/ SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR. THIS IS WHEN/WHERE MAX
INSTABILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG IS PROGGED AND WILL BE WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

FCST SOUNDINGS 15Z-18Z SUNDAY SOUTHEAST OF GRR EXHIBIT FAT
CAPE PROFILES INDICATIVE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT. APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW/COLDER TEMPS ALOFT LEADS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHILE SFC DEW PTS ARE STILL 65-70F. THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST WITH THE INITIAL CELLS THAT DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP A COLD POOL.

THE THREAT FOR SVR WX APPEARS TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS BOTH CAPE
AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OFF. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
WEST THEN NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED ACROSS NRN LWR MI AND THE THUMB AREA. MODELS FOCUS BEST
QPF AND MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH...
ROUGHLY TVC TO MBS TO PT HURON. THIS INCLUDES THE CLARE/MT
PLEASANT/ALMA AREAS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
OTHERWISE RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 0.25 TO 0.50... WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MUCH MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE DAY IN THE SW
HALF OF THE CWFA AS STABILIZING WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AND DEW PTS BEGIN TO FALL.

LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY/COOL
CONDITIONS MONDAY. CU/STRATOCU COULD BE EXTENSIVE MONDAY GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SLIGHTLY TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP UP
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO WARRANT MENTION
OF IT IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY DUE TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
WIDESPREAD DENSER FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 30 KTS. WAVES
OF 4 TO 7 FT EXPECTED... HIGHEST SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

PATCHY FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOVE OVER COLD WATER
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE













000
FXUS63 KDTX 261734
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
134 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL BRING CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN ACTIVITY HITTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS AS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS SHOW A BURST OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 2300Z...THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES
HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS. DESPITE THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA...TSRA COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT REDUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM WINDS AND AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER ALLOW SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYTIME FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE IN THE EARLY EVENING (20-23Z).

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
  AND THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TODAY...BUT OVERALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER LOOK LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
FIRST...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES STRETCHED FROM IOWA AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO JUST
BARELY LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WITHOUT THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUX OF WARMER AIR MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WITH A
FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED FRONT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOW INDICATE A CAP WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY NOT ERODE UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER (CLOSER TO THE FRONT).
NEXT...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT SHEARED OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO ERODE THE
CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
BROADER LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES MAY HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORM AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
OVERALL...POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT HIGHEST ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL TODAY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR STILL LOOK TO REACH 40-50 KNOTS AS AN UPPER SPEED MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD INSTABILITY HOWEVER IS IN QUESTION WITH
THE MID-LEVEL CAP EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY BECOMES IMPEDED BY CONVECTION FIRING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF THE DETROIT AREA...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER HELPING TO BOOST CAPE VALUES
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR DOES ARRIVE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80.

A PLUME OF DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RAMP DURING THIS SAME
TIMEFRAME AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE
BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN LOOK FAIRLY QUIET. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E PUSH...MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...

THE COMPACT AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
VIRGINIAS JUDGING FROM MODEL MEAN RH CLUSTERING THERE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH SEPARATION TO ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM
AS IT SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTER OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF OUTPUT WITH THE
INDICATION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET BUT COULD ALSO BE EMBELLISHED BY INFLUENCE
OF THE MCS SOURCE REGION. ASSUMING LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION...THE RESULTING HYBRID WARM FRONT/TRIPLE
POINT WOULD THEN DIRECT THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS THROUGH OHIO. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PROCESS BUT
STILL INDICATES UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINT OVER OUR AREA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO GENERATE CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IS
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRONG CONTRIBUTIONS TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND THE DYNAMIC STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEMAND CAREFUL MONITORING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WHILE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION RUNS ITS COURSE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A MATURE CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE EAST
AND NORTH FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
WELL ORGANIZED THETA-E TROWAL AXIS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER INDICATIVE OF STRONG DEFORMATION FORCING THROUGH
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFS INDICATES THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
AXIS HIGHLIGHTED BY 700 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 3C REFLECTED IN UPPER 30S
K-INDEX...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND 850 MB BASED LI
AROUND -1C. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL FORECAST FOR
SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT WRINGING MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PATTERN. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES WOULD
NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS...BUT CONCERNS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE
EASED SLIGHTLY BY THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SMALL BUT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY MONDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH POLAR ORIGINS THAT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ENHANCED BY HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN ROCK SOLID MAINTENANCE OF THE
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

MARINE...

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST SUNDAY IN THE AREA OF LAKE
ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 261734
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
134 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL BRING CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN ACTIVITY HITTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS AS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS SHOW A BURST OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 2300Z...THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES
HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS. DESPITE THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA...TSRA COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT REDUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM WINDS AND AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER ALLOW SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYTIME FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE IN THE EARLY EVENING (20-23Z).

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
  AND THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TODAY...BUT OVERALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER LOOK LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
FIRST...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES STRETCHED FROM IOWA AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO JUST
BARELY LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WITHOUT THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUX OF WARMER AIR MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WITH A
FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED FRONT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOW INDICATE A CAP WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY NOT ERODE UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER (CLOSER TO THE FRONT).
NEXT...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT SHEARED OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO ERODE THE
CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
BROADER LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES MAY HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORM AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
OVERALL...POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT HIGHEST ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL TODAY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR STILL LOOK TO REACH 40-50 KNOTS AS AN UPPER SPEED MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD INSTABILITY HOWEVER IS IN QUESTION WITH
THE MID-LEVEL CAP EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY BECOMES IMPEDED BY CONVECTION FIRING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF THE DETROIT AREA...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER HELPING TO BOOST CAPE VALUES
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR DOES ARRIVE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80.

A PLUME OF DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RAMP DURING THIS SAME
TIMEFRAME AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE
BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN LOOK FAIRLY QUIET. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E PUSH...MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...

THE COMPACT AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
VIRGINIAS JUDGING FROM MODEL MEAN RH CLUSTERING THERE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH SEPARATION TO ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM
AS IT SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTER OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF OUTPUT WITH THE
INDICATION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET BUT COULD ALSO BE EMBELLISHED BY INFLUENCE
OF THE MCS SOURCE REGION. ASSUMING LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION...THE RESULTING HYBRID WARM FRONT/TRIPLE
POINT WOULD THEN DIRECT THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS THROUGH OHIO. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PROCESS BUT
STILL INDICATES UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINT OVER OUR AREA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO GENERATE CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IS
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRONG CONTRIBUTIONS TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND THE DYNAMIC STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEMAND CAREFUL MONITORING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WHILE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION RUNS ITS COURSE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A MATURE CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE EAST
AND NORTH FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
WELL ORGANIZED THETA-E TROWAL AXIS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER INDICATIVE OF STRONG DEFORMATION FORCING THROUGH
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFS INDICATES THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
AXIS HIGHLIGHTED BY 700 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 3C REFLECTED IN UPPER 30S
K-INDEX...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND 850 MB BASED LI
AROUND -1C. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL FORECAST FOR
SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT WRINGING MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PATTERN. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES WOULD
NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS...BUT CONCERNS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE
EASED SLIGHTLY BY THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SMALL BUT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY MONDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH POLAR ORIGINS THAT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ENHANCED BY HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN ROCK SOLID MAINTENANCE OF THE
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

MARINE...

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST SUNDAY IN THE AREA OF LAKE
ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261617
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT A
BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. WE/LL SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID TODAY AS SOUTH WINDS
PUSH MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AFTER SUNDAY`S STORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG...COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 MONDAY...SO DEFINITELY CHILLY FOR THE END
OF JULY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A
WARMING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY. IT/S NOT
ZERO...BUT IT`S NOT REAL HIGH EITHER. A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IS MOVING ESE. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. WE`VE GONE WITH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEN DRY TONIGHT.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WRAPPED UP SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS WITH IT. LI/S
NEAR -6C/SBCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KTS.
ORDINARILY...THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN NORTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS ARE. THAT
SAID...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.

AS THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING THAT IS IN PLACE
ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH IS AT ITS DEEPEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING AT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FEATURES TO KEY
ON...SO WITH THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THE COOL MID
LEVEL/JULY HEATING REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
COOL...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD WARM EACH DAY FROM THE LOW
70S ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 80 BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP UP
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO WARRANT MENTION
OF IT IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY DUE TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
WIDESPREAD DENSER FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FOOT WAVES
TODAY. STRONGER WINDS AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER WAVES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PUSH OF COLDER AIR FLOWS DOWN THE
LAKE. A SCA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.



&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 261617
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT A
BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. WE/LL SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID TODAY AS SOUTH WINDS
PUSH MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AFTER SUNDAY`S STORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG...COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 MONDAY...SO DEFINITELY CHILLY FOR THE END
OF JULY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A
WARMING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY. IT/S NOT
ZERO...BUT IT`S NOT REAL HIGH EITHER. A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IS MOVING ESE. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. WE`VE GONE WITH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEN DRY TONIGHT.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WRAPPED UP SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS WITH IT. LI/S
NEAR -6C/SBCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KTS.
ORDINARILY...THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN NORTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS ARE. THAT
SAID...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.

AS THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING THAT IS IN PLACE
ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH IS AT ITS DEEPEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING AT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FEATURES TO KEY
ON...SO WITH THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THE COOL MID
LEVEL/JULY HEATING REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
COOL...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD WARM EACH DAY FROM THE LOW
70S ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 80 BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP UP
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO WARRANT MENTION
OF IT IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY DUE TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
WIDESPREAD DENSER FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FOOT WAVES
TODAY. STRONGER WINDS AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER WAVES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PUSH OF COLDER AIR FLOWS DOWN THE
LAKE. A SCA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.



&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 261617
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT A
BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. WE/LL SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID TODAY AS SOUTH WINDS
PUSH MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AFTER SUNDAY`S STORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG...COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 MONDAY...SO DEFINITELY CHILLY FOR THE END
OF JULY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A
WARMING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY. IT/S NOT
ZERO...BUT IT`S NOT REAL HIGH EITHER. A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IS MOVING ESE. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. WE`VE GONE WITH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEN DRY TONIGHT.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WRAPPED UP SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS WITH IT. LI/S
NEAR -6C/SBCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KTS.
ORDINARILY...THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN NORTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS ARE. THAT
SAID...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.

AS THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING THAT IS IN PLACE
ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH IS AT ITS DEEPEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING AT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FEATURES TO KEY
ON...SO WITH THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THE COOL MID
LEVEL/JULY HEATING REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
COOL...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD WARM EACH DAY FROM THE LOW
70S ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 80 BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP UP
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO WARRANT MENTION
OF IT IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY DUE TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
WIDESPREAD DENSER FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FOOT WAVES
TODAY. STRONGER WINDS AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER WAVES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PUSH OF COLDER AIR FLOWS DOWN THE
LAKE. A SCA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.



&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 261617
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT A
BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. WE/LL SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID TODAY AS SOUTH WINDS
PUSH MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AFTER SUNDAY`S STORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG...COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 MONDAY...SO DEFINITELY CHILLY FOR THE END
OF JULY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A
WARMING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY. IT/S NOT
ZERO...BUT IT`S NOT REAL HIGH EITHER. A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IS MOVING ESE. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. WE`VE GONE WITH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEN DRY TONIGHT.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WRAPPED UP SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS WITH IT. LI/S
NEAR -6C/SBCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KTS.
ORDINARILY...THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN NORTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS ARE. THAT
SAID...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.

AS THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING THAT IS IN PLACE
ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH IS AT ITS DEEPEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING AT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FEATURES TO KEY
ON...SO WITH THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THE COOL MID
LEVEL/JULY HEATING REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
COOL...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD WARM EACH DAY FROM THE LOW
70S ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 80 BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP UP
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO WARRANT MENTION
OF IT IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY DUE TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
WIDESPREAD DENSER FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FOOT WAVES
TODAY. STRONGER WINDS AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER WAVES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PUSH OF COLDER AIR FLOWS DOWN THE
LAKE. A SCA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.



&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 261607
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT A
BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. WE/LL SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID TODAY AS SOUTH WINDS
PUSH MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AFTER SUNDAY`S STORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG...COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 MONDAY...SO DEFINITELY CHILLY FOR THE END
OF JULY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A
WARMING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY. IT/S NOT
ZERO...BUT IT`S NOT REAL HIGH EITHER. A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IS MOVING ESE. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. WE`VE GONE WITH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEN DRY TONIGHT.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WRAPPED UP SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS WITH IT. LI/S
NEAR -6C/SBCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KTS.
ORDINARILY...THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN NORTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS ARE. THAT
SAID...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.

AS THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING THAT IS IN PLACE
ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH IS AT ITS DEEPEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING AT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FEATURES TO KEY
ON...SO WITH THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THE COOL MID
LEVEL/JULY HEATING REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
COOL...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD WARM EACH DAY FROM THE LOW
70S ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 80 BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE 3500-5000FT RANGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST AND NOT AFFECT THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE TAF SITES.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES. MODELS ARE HINTING AT LOWER CLOUDS
SPREADING IN TONIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLE IF NOT LOWER. AT THIS
POINT HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED CEILINGS AT
1500FT. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO GO LOWER ON BOTH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG/STRATUS INCREASES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FOOT WAVES
TODAY. STRONGER WINDS AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER WAVES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PUSH OF COLDER AIR FLOWS DOWN THE
LAKE. A SCA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.



&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93






000
FXUS63 KGRR 261607
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT A
BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. WE/LL SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID TODAY AS SOUTH WINDS
PUSH MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AFTER SUNDAY`S STORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG...COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 MONDAY...SO DEFINITELY CHILLY FOR THE END
OF JULY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A
WARMING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY. IT/S NOT
ZERO...BUT IT`S NOT REAL HIGH EITHER. A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IS MOVING ESE. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. WE`VE GONE WITH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEN DRY TONIGHT.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WRAPPED UP SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS WITH IT. LI/S
NEAR -6C/SBCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KTS.
ORDINARILY...THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN NORTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS ARE. THAT
SAID...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.

AS THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING THAT IS IN PLACE
ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH IS AT ITS DEEPEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING AT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FEATURES TO KEY
ON...SO WITH THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THE COOL MID
LEVEL/JULY HEATING REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
COOL...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD WARM EACH DAY FROM THE LOW
70S ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 80 BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE 3500-5000FT RANGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST AND NOT AFFECT THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE TAF SITES.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES. MODELS ARE HINTING AT LOWER CLOUDS
SPREADING IN TONIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLE IF NOT LOWER. AT THIS
POINT HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED CEILINGS AT
1500FT. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO GO LOWER ON BOTH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG/STRATUS INCREASES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FOOT WAVES
TODAY. STRONGER WINDS AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER WAVES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PUSH OF COLDER AIR FLOWS DOWN THE
LAKE. A SCA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.



&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261155
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
755 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT A
BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. WE/LL SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID TODAY AS SOUTH WINDS
PUSH MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AFTER SUNDAY`S STORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG...COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 MONDAY...SO DEFINITELY CHILLY FOR THE END
OF JULY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A
WARMING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY. IT/S NOT
ZERO...BUT IT`S NOT REAL HIGH EITHER. A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IS MOVING ESE. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. WE`VE GONE WITH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEN DRY TONIGHT.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WRAPPED UP SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS WITH IT. LI/S
NEAR -6C/SBCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KTS.
ORDINARILY...THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN NORTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS ARE. THAT
SAID...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.

AS THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING THAT IS IN PLACE
ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH IS AT ITS DEEPEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING AT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FEATURES TO KEY
ON...SO WITH THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THE COOL MID
LEVEL/JULY HEATING REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
COOL...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD WARM EACH DAY FROM THE LOW
70S ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 80 BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE 3500-5000FT RANGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST AND NOT AFFECT THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE TAF SITES.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES. MODELS ARE HINTING AT LOWER CLOUDS
SPREADING IN TONIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLE IF NOT LOWER. AT THIS
POINT HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED CEILINGS AT
1500FT. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO GO LOWER ON BOTH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG/STRATUS INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FOOT WAVES
TODAY. STRONGER WINDS AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER WAVES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PUSH OF COLDER AIR FLOWS DOWN THE
LAKE. A SCA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AFTER A STRETCH OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WE WILL SEE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONE ROUND WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE ANOTHER ROUND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREA WIDE...TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE OUT
AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY BE BE HIGHER.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
POINT LONG TERM 5-7 DAY TOTALS ARE MORE ON THE BENEFICIAL SIDE
WITH RECENT DRY WEATHER. OVERALL...RIVER FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY. ANTICIPATED RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MINOR RISES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261155
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
755 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT A
BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. WE/LL SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID TODAY AS SOUTH WINDS
PUSH MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AFTER SUNDAY`S STORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG...COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 MONDAY...SO DEFINITELY CHILLY FOR THE END
OF JULY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A
WARMING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY. IT/S NOT
ZERO...BUT IT`S NOT REAL HIGH EITHER. A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IS MOVING ESE. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. WE`VE GONE WITH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEN DRY TONIGHT.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WRAPPED UP SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS WITH IT. LI/S
NEAR -6C/SBCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KTS.
ORDINARILY...THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN NORTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS ARE. THAT
SAID...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.

AS THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING THAT IS IN PLACE
ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH IS AT ITS DEEPEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING AT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FEATURES TO KEY
ON...SO WITH THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THE COOL MID
LEVEL/JULY HEATING REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
COOL...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD WARM EACH DAY FROM THE LOW
70S ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 80 BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE 3500-5000FT RANGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST AND NOT AFFECT THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE TAF SITES.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES. MODELS ARE HINTING AT LOWER CLOUDS
SPREADING IN TONIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLE IF NOT LOWER. AT THIS
POINT HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED CEILINGS AT
1500FT. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO GO LOWER ON BOTH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG/STRATUS INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FOOT WAVES
TODAY. STRONGER WINDS AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER WAVES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PUSH OF COLDER AIR FLOWS DOWN THE
LAKE. A SCA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AFTER A STRETCH OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WE WILL SEE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONE ROUND WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE ANOTHER ROUND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREA WIDE...TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE OUT
AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY BE BE HIGHER.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
POINT LONG TERM 5-7 DAY TOTALS ARE MORE ON THE BENEFICIAL SIDE
WITH RECENT DRY WEATHER. OVERALL...RIVER FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY. ANTICIPATED RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MINOR RISES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93






000
FXUS63 KAPX 261128
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
728 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLOW MODERATION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS
TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER ENERGETIC LOOK TO
NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST NOTABLE FEATURES
OF INTEREST INCLUDE BROAD SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES...STRONG MID LEVEL LOW
ROTATING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CANADA...AND MUCH SMALLER IN SCALE BUT
TIGHTLY WOUND SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. SURFACE FEATURES NOT NEARLY AS PROMINENT AS THEIR MID LEVEL
PARENTS...WITH EAST COAST SURFACE HIGH STEADILY YIELDING TO
EAST ADVANCING UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COLD FRONT. MOISTURE
ADVECTION BETWEEN THESE TWO LATTER FEATURES QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH
SURGE OF UPPER 60/LOWER 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS MAKING A RUN INTO THE
FAR WESTERN LAKES. DESPITE MOISTURE...SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...TIED TO A LACK OF MORE COHERENT
DYNAMICS...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ATTEMPTING TO PERCOLATE TO
OUR NORTHWEST. PATTERN WILL REMAIN A PROGRESSIVE ONE FOR NOW...WITH
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST...CROSSING INTO AND
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSTANTIALLY LOOSING DEFINITION
AS IT DOES SO. MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
DIVE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A WET SUNDAY AS IT EVENTUALLY CUTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: MOSTLY CENTERED ON SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY.

DETAILS: GOTTA ADMIT THE OBVIOUS...CONFIDENCE FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS DESIRED. CLOUD TRENDS/FRONTAL
TIMING/POSSIBLE LAKE AIDED CONVERGENCE/AND VERY MARGINAL DYNAMICS
ALL COMING TOGETHER TO MAKE A MESS OF THE FORECAST. THROW IN JUMPY
GUIDANCE PROGS...DISPLAYING A FULL ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES (SOME
BRING A DECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THROUGH HERE THIS MORNING/WITH
LITTLE AFTER...OTHERS WAIT UNTIL LATER TODAY TO FIRE THINGS
OFF...WHILE SOME SHOW ESSENTIALLY NOTHING AT ALL)...AND ONE CAN
UNDERSTAND THE FIRST SENTENCE OF THIS PARAGRAPH. DEFINITELY NOT
BUYING ANY ONE SPECIFIC PIECE OF GUIDANCE...AND WILL SIMPLY RELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION AND ANTICIPATED FRONTAL TIMING FOR AN EDUCATED
FIRST GUESS. FIRST OFF...GOTTA BELIEVE SOME OF THAT DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BRINGING A SHOWER/ISOLATED
STORM THREAT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING A CORRIDOR OF WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR TIMING PURPOSES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER...ALTHOUGH CROSS
SECTIONS/BUFR SOUNDING SHOW AT LEAST SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE. DEFINITELY NOT
BUYING THE OVER AGGRESSIVE NAM WHICH GENERATES UPWARDS OF 2K-3K J/KG
OF ML CAPE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MUCH MORE
REASONABLE...KEEPING VALUES LARGELY UNDER A THOUSAND. BESIDES
DECAYING FRONT AND POSSIBLE LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HELP...JUST NOT SEEING A BUNCH OF MEANINGFUL DEEP DYNAMICS. FORCED
TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...USING A LARGELY CLIMATE LOOK TO AFTERNOON
POP GRIDS...KEEPING CHANCE MENTION IN FAVORED AREAS...DECREASING
POPS AS ONE GOES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. IGNORING THE OVER
AGGRESSIVE NAM-WRF...JUST NOT SEEING A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL
CAPE PROFILES.

ANY SHOWERS COME TO A QUICK END EARLY THIS EVENING...COURTESY OF DRY
MID LEVELS AND TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THAT CANADIAN VORT
BOMB. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS RIGHT TOWARDS MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE BEGIN TO INCREASE.
WILL PERUSE THE FULL RANGE OF 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DOING SUCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...MORE COOL WX ON THE WAY...

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. A SMALLER BUT SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW IN
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL GRADUALLY GET DRAWN INTO THE FORMER/S
CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE LATTER WILL DIG SE AND ACCELERATE...
REACHING LOWER MI SUNDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED AND DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM W CENTRAL LOWER MI TO METRO DETROIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING...THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING A SMIDGE
FASTER IN RECENT GUIDANCE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOLID CHANCE FOR
SHRA/MAYBE TSRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WE DRY OUT BUT COOL OFF. PRECIP AND
TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK OF
BOTH THE SURFACE AND 500MB LOWS ON SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT AVENUES FOR PRECIP GENERATION. ONE IS ANY DIURNAL HEATING
WE CAN MANAGE...COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT (500MB READINGS
LOWER FROM -12C TO -14C). HOWEVER...THE MORE LIKELY CULPRIT IS GOOD
OLE DEEP SYNOPTIC ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS. WE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE COMMA HEAD/WRAPAROUND PORTION OF THE LOW BEFORE
THINGS END SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT IS REASONABLY
TIGHT FOR THE SEASON TO START OUT SUNDAY...WITH READINGS FROM 12C
NEAR WHITEFISH BAY TO 20C NEARING FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS WELL ALOFT...IN THE 700-500MB LAYER...AS THE
SUB-700MB FLOW IS RATHER DISORGANIZED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ON TOP OF
US. SO THAT PRECIP-GENERATING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...BUT WON/T
BE SUPER-EFFICIENT.

THIS LEAVES OUR THINKING IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...THAT PRECIP IS HIGHLY LIKELY BUT NOT QUITE CERTAIN.
WOULDN/T BE DIFFICULT TO HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER GIVEN THE
COOLING ALOFT...BUT LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK WIND FIELDS
WILL LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD CONVEYOR BELT PROCEEDS SE. WILL EXIT PRECIP A BIT FASTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST. THE THUNDER THREAT WILL EXIT FASTER THAN PRECIP
WILL...BUT AM INCLINED TO ADD EVENING THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN INSTABILITY PROGS.

AM INCLINED TO GO BELOW MOST MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S. WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY ALL
NIGHT...MINS WILL LOWER BACK INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR SWEEPS BACK IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS C. THE COOL/RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT AN INVERSION AT
700MB SHOULD CUT OFF ANY CHANCE AT PRECIP. THE 00Z NAM HAS A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARD 00Z. ARRIVING AT
00Z...IT SHOULD AROUSE AT LEAST A SMIDGE OF SUSPICION. BUT THE NAM
IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT VIGOROUS...AND THE PROGGED COOLING ALOFT IS
NOT ENOUGH IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS TO GET PAST THE CAP. SO FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT IN A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY
MID 60S TO NEAR 70F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AS TO HOW THE EXTENDED
PLAYS OUT. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND TROFFING INTO THE
LAKES REGION...WILL BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE THRU THE WORK WEEK. EVEN
NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT...A
WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKES. THOUGH TEMPS WILL TEND TO
SLOWLY MODERATE (MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY...AND MONDAY
NIGHT THE COOLEST NIGHT)...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE
FORECAST.

THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS TO GENERATE PRECIP
HERE...OUTSIDE OF A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE GRAZING LAKE HURON FROM THE
NE TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE CAN GENERATE ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST THAT QUESTION IS NO...WITH A
CAPPED AIRMASS. HOWEVER...TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE MI. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHRA/TSRA IN THE REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS TODAY.
MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE. THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING PLN/TVC/MBL...BUT
COULD LINGER THRU THE AFTERNOON NEAR APN. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY PLN/APN. TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF PARTIAL
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG WILL DEVELOP. PRESENTLY PROG IFR
AT APN/PLN...MVFR MBL/TVC.

A SW TO W BREEZE TODAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME ATTEMPT AT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO PICK UP UNTIL LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FROM THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY END UP BEING NEEDED TO START NEXT WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 261128
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
728 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLOW MODERATION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS
TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER ENERGETIC LOOK TO
NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST NOTABLE FEATURES
OF INTEREST INCLUDE BROAD SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES...STRONG MID LEVEL LOW
ROTATING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CANADA...AND MUCH SMALLER IN SCALE BUT
TIGHTLY WOUND SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. SURFACE FEATURES NOT NEARLY AS PROMINENT AS THEIR MID LEVEL
PARENTS...WITH EAST COAST SURFACE HIGH STEADILY YIELDING TO
EAST ADVANCING UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COLD FRONT. MOISTURE
ADVECTION BETWEEN THESE TWO LATTER FEATURES QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH
SURGE OF UPPER 60/LOWER 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS MAKING A RUN INTO THE
FAR WESTERN LAKES. DESPITE MOISTURE...SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...TIED TO A LACK OF MORE COHERENT
DYNAMICS...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ATTEMPTING TO PERCOLATE TO
OUR NORTHWEST. PATTERN WILL REMAIN A PROGRESSIVE ONE FOR NOW...WITH
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST...CROSSING INTO AND
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSTANTIALLY LOOSING DEFINITION
AS IT DOES SO. MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
DIVE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A WET SUNDAY AS IT EVENTUALLY CUTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: MOSTLY CENTERED ON SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY.

DETAILS: GOTTA ADMIT THE OBVIOUS...CONFIDENCE FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS DESIRED. CLOUD TRENDS/FRONTAL
TIMING/POSSIBLE LAKE AIDED CONVERGENCE/AND VERY MARGINAL DYNAMICS
ALL COMING TOGETHER TO MAKE A MESS OF THE FORECAST. THROW IN JUMPY
GUIDANCE PROGS...DISPLAYING A FULL ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES (SOME
BRING A DECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THROUGH HERE THIS MORNING/WITH
LITTLE AFTER...OTHERS WAIT UNTIL LATER TODAY TO FIRE THINGS
OFF...WHILE SOME SHOW ESSENTIALLY NOTHING AT ALL)...AND ONE CAN
UNDERSTAND THE FIRST SENTENCE OF THIS PARAGRAPH. DEFINITELY NOT
BUYING ANY ONE SPECIFIC PIECE OF GUIDANCE...AND WILL SIMPLY RELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION AND ANTICIPATED FRONTAL TIMING FOR AN EDUCATED
FIRST GUESS. FIRST OFF...GOTTA BELIEVE SOME OF THAT DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BRINGING A SHOWER/ISOLATED
STORM THREAT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING A CORRIDOR OF WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR TIMING PURPOSES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER...ALTHOUGH CROSS
SECTIONS/BUFR SOUNDING SHOW AT LEAST SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE. DEFINITELY NOT
BUYING THE OVER AGGRESSIVE NAM WHICH GENERATES UPWARDS OF 2K-3K J/KG
OF ML CAPE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MUCH MORE
REASONABLE...KEEPING VALUES LARGELY UNDER A THOUSAND. BESIDES
DECAYING FRONT AND POSSIBLE LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HELP...JUST NOT SEEING A BUNCH OF MEANINGFUL DEEP DYNAMICS. FORCED
TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...USING A LARGELY CLIMATE LOOK TO AFTERNOON
POP GRIDS...KEEPING CHANCE MENTION IN FAVORED AREAS...DECREASING
POPS AS ONE GOES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. IGNORING THE OVER
AGGRESSIVE NAM-WRF...JUST NOT SEEING A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL
CAPE PROFILES.

ANY SHOWERS COME TO A QUICK END EARLY THIS EVENING...COURTESY OF DRY
MID LEVELS AND TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THAT CANADIAN VORT
BOMB. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS RIGHT TOWARDS MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE BEGIN TO INCREASE.
WILL PERUSE THE FULL RANGE OF 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DOING SUCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...MORE COOL WX ON THE WAY...

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. A SMALLER BUT SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW IN
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL GRADUALLY GET DRAWN INTO THE FORMER/S
CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE LATTER WILL DIG SE AND ACCELERATE...
REACHING LOWER MI SUNDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED AND DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM W CENTRAL LOWER MI TO METRO DETROIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING...THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING A SMIDGE
FASTER IN RECENT GUIDANCE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOLID CHANCE FOR
SHRA/MAYBE TSRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WE DRY OUT BUT COOL OFF. PRECIP AND
TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK OF
BOTH THE SURFACE AND 500MB LOWS ON SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT AVENUES FOR PRECIP GENERATION. ONE IS ANY DIURNAL HEATING
WE CAN MANAGE...COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT (500MB READINGS
LOWER FROM -12C TO -14C). HOWEVER...THE MORE LIKELY CULPRIT IS GOOD
OLE DEEP SYNOPTIC ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS. WE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE COMMA HEAD/WRAPAROUND PORTION OF THE LOW BEFORE
THINGS END SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT IS REASONABLY
TIGHT FOR THE SEASON TO START OUT SUNDAY...WITH READINGS FROM 12C
NEAR WHITEFISH BAY TO 20C NEARING FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS WELL ALOFT...IN THE 700-500MB LAYER...AS THE
SUB-700MB FLOW IS RATHER DISORGANIZED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ON TOP OF
US. SO THAT PRECIP-GENERATING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...BUT WON/T
BE SUPER-EFFICIENT.

THIS LEAVES OUR THINKING IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...THAT PRECIP IS HIGHLY LIKELY BUT NOT QUITE CERTAIN.
WOULDN/T BE DIFFICULT TO HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER GIVEN THE
COOLING ALOFT...BUT LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK WIND FIELDS
WILL LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD CONVEYOR BELT PROCEEDS SE. WILL EXIT PRECIP A BIT FASTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST. THE THUNDER THREAT WILL EXIT FASTER THAN PRECIP
WILL...BUT AM INCLINED TO ADD EVENING THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN INSTABILITY PROGS.

AM INCLINED TO GO BELOW MOST MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S. WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY ALL
NIGHT...MINS WILL LOWER BACK INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR SWEEPS BACK IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS C. THE COOL/RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT AN INVERSION AT
700MB SHOULD CUT OFF ANY CHANCE AT PRECIP. THE 00Z NAM HAS A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARD 00Z. ARRIVING AT
00Z...IT SHOULD AROUSE AT LEAST A SMIDGE OF SUSPICION. BUT THE NAM
IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT VIGOROUS...AND THE PROGGED COOLING ALOFT IS
NOT ENOUGH IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS TO GET PAST THE CAP. SO FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT IN A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY
MID 60S TO NEAR 70F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AS TO HOW THE EXTENDED
PLAYS OUT. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND TROFFING INTO THE
LAKES REGION...WILL BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE THRU THE WORK WEEK. EVEN
NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT...A
WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKES. THOUGH TEMPS WILL TEND TO
SLOWLY MODERATE (MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY...AND MONDAY
NIGHT THE COOLEST NIGHT)...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE
FORECAST.

THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS TO GENERATE PRECIP
HERE...OUTSIDE OF A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE GRAZING LAKE HURON FROM THE
NE TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE CAN GENERATE ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST THAT QUESTION IS NO...WITH A
CAPPED AIRMASS. HOWEVER...TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE MI. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHRA/TSRA IN THE REGION TODAY. SOME MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS TODAY.
MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE. THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING PLN/TVC/MBL...BUT
COULD LINGER THRU THE AFTERNOON NEAR APN. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY PLN/APN. TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF PARTIAL
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG WILL DEVELOP. PRESENTLY PROG IFR
AT APN/PLN...MVFR MBL/TVC.

A SW TO W BREEZE TODAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME ATTEMPT AT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO PICK UP UNTIL LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FROM THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY END UP BEING NEEDED TO START NEXT WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 261126
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)

LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AM WITH AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
PUSHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/MN ARROWHEAD
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LOSE STEAM AS IT DRIFTS TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
WILL BRING TO AN END ANY PRECIPITATION THAT PERSISTS. WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS WITH INCREASE MIXING ON THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO
DECENT 850-500 MB Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE...AREA TO SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY EXCEPT FOR FAR EAST WHERE CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGEST.
STILL LOTS OF MOISTURE AROUND CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
ALTHOUGH THE WEST WILL MIX OUT QUITE WELL THUS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP AS LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP AND
MOVE INLAND. WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 16 C OVER THE WI
BORDER REGION AND WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF HOLDING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECT LOWER/MID 80S ALONG AREAS FAVORED BY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WITH SOME MODERATION ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. COMBINATION OF SFC FRONT AND DECENT 850-500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES AFTER MAX HEATING WITH MU
CAPES ON THE WANE BY THE TIME THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. STILL
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AFTER THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVERNIGHT WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD
AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDING OFF BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THIS
CONVECTION...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. ONCE THAT OCCURS...DRIER AIR ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOVE IN WITH MVFR AND SOME IFR CIGS GIVING
WAY TO VFR WHEN DAYTIME MIXING ARRIVES IN EARNEST. BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MVFR
CIGS RETURN WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND CANNOT RULE OUT IFR LATE IN
THE FORECAST AT KCMX AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNDER INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE. WINDS WILL
PICK UP SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTHERLY
WINDS ONT THE BACKSIDE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS PICK UP
AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN LAKE BUT REMAIN UNDER 20
KNOTS. AFTER THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND
WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...RJT






000
FXUS63 KMQT 261102
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)

LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AM WITH AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
PUSHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/MN ARROWHEAD
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LOSE STEAM AS IT DRIFTS TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
WILL BRING TO AN END ANY PRECIPITATION THAT PERSISTS. WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS WITH INCREASE MIXING ON THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO
DECENT 850-500 MB Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE...AREA TO SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY EXCEPT FOR FAR EAST WHERE CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGEST.
STILL LOTS OF MOISTURE AROUND CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
ALTHOUGH THE WEST WILL MIX OUT QUITE WELL THUS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP AS LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP AND
MOVE INLAND. WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 16 C OVER THE WI
BORDER REGION AND WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF HOLDING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECT LOWER/MID 80S ALONG AREAS FAVORED BY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WITH SOME MODERATION ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. COMBINATION OF SFC FRONT AND DECENT 850-500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES AFTER MAX HEATING WITH MU
CAPES ON THE WANE BY THE TIME THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. STILL
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AFTER THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVERNIGHT WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD
AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDING OFF BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SPRINKLES...CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
AREA OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WITH DRYING ALOFT LATER ON THIS AM CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIFR CIGS.
ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS...CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. TIMING TO BE
DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION...AS ANY UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELAY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. AT THIS TIME...KCMX TO BE THE SLOWEST OUT OF
THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AS UPSLOPE NW WINDS TO HELP THESE LOWER CEILINGS
HOLD ON TIL AROUND 14Z. AFTER THEN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNDER INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE. WINDS WILL
PICK UP SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTHERLY
WINDS ONT THE BACKSIDE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS PICK UP
AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN LAKE BUT REMAIN UNDER 20
KNOTS. AFTER THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND
WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...RJT







000
FXUS63 KMQT 261102
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)

LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AM WITH AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
PUSHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/MN ARROWHEAD
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LOSE STEAM AS IT DRIFTS TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
WILL BRING TO AN END ANY PRECIPITATION THAT PERSISTS. WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS WITH INCREASE MIXING ON THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO
DECENT 850-500 MB Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE...AREA TO SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY EXCEPT FOR FAR EAST WHERE CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGEST.
STILL LOTS OF MOISTURE AROUND CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
ALTHOUGH THE WEST WILL MIX OUT QUITE WELL THUS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP AS LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP AND
MOVE INLAND. WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 16 C OVER THE WI
BORDER REGION AND WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF HOLDING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECT LOWER/MID 80S ALONG AREAS FAVORED BY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WITH SOME MODERATION ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. COMBINATION OF SFC FRONT AND DECENT 850-500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES AFTER MAX HEATING WITH MU
CAPES ON THE WANE BY THE TIME THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. STILL
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AFTER THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVERNIGHT WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD
AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDING OFF BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SPRINKLES...CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
AREA OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WITH DRYING ALOFT LATER ON THIS AM CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIFR CIGS.
ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS...CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. TIMING TO BE
DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION...AS ANY UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELAY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. AT THIS TIME...KCMX TO BE THE SLOWEST OUT OF
THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AS UPSLOPE NW WINDS TO HELP THESE LOWER CEILINGS
HOLD ON TIL AROUND 14Z. AFTER THEN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNDER INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE. WINDS WILL
PICK UP SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTHERLY
WINDS ONT THE BACKSIDE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS PICK UP
AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN LAKE BUT REMAIN UNDER 20
KNOTS. AFTER THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND
WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...RJT






000
FXUS63 KDTX 260754
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TODAY...BUT OVERALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER LOOK LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
FIRST...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES STRETCHED FROM IOWA AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO JUST
BARELY LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WITHOUT THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUX OF WARMER AIR MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WITH A
FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED FRONT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOW INDICATE A CAP WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY NOT ERODE UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER (CLOSER TO THE FRONT).
NEXT...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT SHEARED OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO ERODE THE
CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
BROADER LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES MAY HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORM AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
OVERALL...POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT HIGHEST ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL TODAY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR STILL LOOK TO REACH 40-50 KNOTS AS AN UPPER SPEED MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD INSTABILITY HOWEVER IS IN QUESTION WITH
THE MID-LEVEL CAP EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY BECOMES IMPEDED BY CONVECTION FIRING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF THE DETROIT AREA...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER HELPING TO BOOST CAPE VALUES
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR DOES ARRIVE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80.

A PLUME OF DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RAMP DURING THIS SAME
TIMEFRAME AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE
BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN LOOK FAIRLY QUIET. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E PUSH...MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE COMPACT AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
VIRGINIAS JUDGING FROM MODEL MEAN RH CLUSTERING THERE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH SEPARATION TO ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM
AS IT SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTER OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF OUTPUT WITH THE
INDICATION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET BUT COULD ALSO BE EMBELLISHED BY INFLUENCE
OF THE MCS SOURCE REGION. ASSUMING LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION...THE RESULTING HYBRID WARM FRONT/TRIPLE
POINT WOULD THEN DIRECT THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS THROUGH OHIO. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PROCESS BUT
STILL INDICATES UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINT OVER OUR AREA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO GENERATE CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IS
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRONG CONTRIBUTIONS TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND THE DYNAMIC STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEMAND CAREFUL MONITORING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WHILE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION RUNS ITS COURSE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A MATURE CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE EAST
AND NORTH FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
WELL ORGANIZED THETA-E TROWAL AXIS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER INDICATIVE OF STRONG DEFORMATION FORCING THROUGH
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFS INDICATES THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
AXIS HIGHLIGHTED BY 700 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 3C REFLECTED IN UPPER 30S
K-INDEX...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND 850 MB BASED LI
AROUND -1C. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL FORECAST FOR
SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT WRINGING MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PATTERN. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES WOULD
NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS...BUT CONCERNS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE
EASED SLIGHTLY BY THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SMALL BUT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY MONDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH POLAR ORIGINS THAT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ENHANCED BY HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN ROCK SOLID MAINTENANCE OF THE
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST SUNDAY IN THE AREA OF LAKE
ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DELAYING SHRA CHANCES INTO MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. BY THAT TIME...LIFT FROM NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCROACH ON THE AREA AND COINCIDE WITH BETTER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
LOCATION OF BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEBULOUS...BUT MODELS
SEEM TO FOCUS NEARER THE I 94 TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
THIS AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A START...WHICH HOPEFULLY CAN BE
REFINED BASED ON OVERNIGHT/MORNING TRENDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET AFTER 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 260754
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TODAY...BUT OVERALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER LOOK LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
FIRST...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES STRETCHED FROM IOWA AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO JUST
BARELY LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WITHOUT THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUX OF WARMER AIR MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WITH A
FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED FRONT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOW INDICATE A CAP WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY NOT ERODE UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER (CLOSER TO THE FRONT).
NEXT...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT SHEARED OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO ERODE THE
CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
BROADER LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES MAY HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORM AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
OVERALL...POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT HIGHEST ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL TODAY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR STILL LOOK TO REACH 40-50 KNOTS AS AN UPPER SPEED MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD INSTABILITY HOWEVER IS IN QUESTION WITH
THE MID-LEVEL CAP EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY BECOMES IMPEDED BY CONVECTION FIRING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF THE DETROIT AREA...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER HELPING TO BOOST CAPE VALUES
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR DOES ARRIVE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80.

A PLUME OF DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RAMP DURING THIS SAME
TIMEFRAME AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE
BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN LOOK FAIRLY QUIET. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E PUSH...MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE COMPACT AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
VIRGINIAS JUDGING FROM MODEL MEAN RH CLUSTERING THERE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH SEPARATION TO ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM
AS IT SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTER OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF OUTPUT WITH THE
INDICATION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET BUT COULD ALSO BE EMBELLISHED BY INFLUENCE
OF THE MCS SOURCE REGION. ASSUMING LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION...THE RESULTING HYBRID WARM FRONT/TRIPLE
POINT WOULD THEN DIRECT THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS THROUGH OHIO. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PROCESS BUT
STILL INDICATES UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINT OVER OUR AREA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO GENERATE CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IS
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRONG CONTRIBUTIONS TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND THE DYNAMIC STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEMAND CAREFUL MONITORING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WHILE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION RUNS ITS COURSE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A MATURE CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE EAST
AND NORTH FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
WELL ORGANIZED THETA-E TROWAL AXIS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER INDICATIVE OF STRONG DEFORMATION FORCING THROUGH
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFS INDICATES THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
AXIS HIGHLIGHTED BY 700 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 3C REFLECTED IN UPPER 30S
K-INDEX...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND 850 MB BASED LI
AROUND -1C. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL FORECAST FOR
SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT WRINGING MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PATTERN. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES WOULD
NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS...BUT CONCERNS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE
EASED SLIGHTLY BY THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SMALL BUT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY MONDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH POLAR ORIGINS THAT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ENHANCED BY HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN ROCK SOLID MAINTENANCE OF THE
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST SUNDAY IN THE AREA OF LAKE
ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DELAYING SHRA CHANCES INTO MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. BY THAT TIME...LIFT FROM NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCROACH ON THE AREA AND COINCIDE WITH BETTER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
LOCATION OF BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEBULOUS...BUT MODELS
SEEM TO FOCUS NEARER THE I 94 TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
THIS AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A START...WHICH HOPEFULLY CAN BE
REFINED BASED ON OVERNIGHT/MORNING TRENDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET AFTER 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 260754
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TODAY...BUT OVERALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER LOOK LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
FIRST...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES STRETCHED FROM IOWA AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO JUST
BARELY LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WITHOUT THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUX OF WARMER AIR MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WITH A
FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED FRONT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOW INDICATE A CAP WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY NOT ERODE UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER (CLOSER TO THE FRONT).
NEXT...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT SHEARED OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO ERODE THE
CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
BROADER LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES MAY HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORM AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
OVERALL...POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT HIGHEST ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL TODAY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR STILL LOOK TO REACH 40-50 KNOTS AS AN UPPER SPEED MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD INSTABILITY HOWEVER IS IN QUESTION WITH
THE MID-LEVEL CAP EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY BECOMES IMPEDED BY CONVECTION FIRING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF THE DETROIT AREA...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER HELPING TO BOOST CAPE VALUES
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR DOES ARRIVE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80.

A PLUME OF DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RAMP DURING THIS SAME
TIMEFRAME AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE
BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN LOOK FAIRLY QUIET. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E PUSH...MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE COMPACT AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
VIRGINIAS JUDGING FROM MODEL MEAN RH CLUSTERING THERE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH SEPARATION TO ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM
AS IT SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTER OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF OUTPUT WITH THE
INDICATION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET BUT COULD ALSO BE EMBELLISHED BY INFLUENCE
OF THE MCS SOURCE REGION. ASSUMING LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION...THE RESULTING HYBRID WARM FRONT/TRIPLE
POINT WOULD THEN DIRECT THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS THROUGH OHIO. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PROCESS BUT
STILL INDICATES UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINT OVER OUR AREA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO GENERATE CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IS
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRONG CONTRIBUTIONS TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND THE DYNAMIC STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEMAND CAREFUL MONITORING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WHILE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION RUNS ITS COURSE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A MATURE CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE EAST
AND NORTH FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
WELL ORGANIZED THETA-E TROWAL AXIS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER INDICATIVE OF STRONG DEFORMATION FORCING THROUGH
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFS INDICATES THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
AXIS HIGHLIGHTED BY 700 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 3C REFLECTED IN UPPER 30S
K-INDEX...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND 850 MB BASED LI
AROUND -1C. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL FORECAST FOR
SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT WRINGING MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PATTERN. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES WOULD
NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS...BUT CONCERNS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE
EASED SLIGHTLY BY THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SMALL BUT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY MONDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH POLAR ORIGINS THAT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ENHANCED BY HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN ROCK SOLID MAINTENANCE OF THE
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST SUNDAY IN THE AREA OF LAKE
ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DELAYING SHRA CHANCES INTO MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. BY THAT TIME...LIFT FROM NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCROACH ON THE AREA AND COINCIDE WITH BETTER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
LOCATION OF BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEBULOUS...BUT MODELS
SEEM TO FOCUS NEARER THE I 94 TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
THIS AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A START...WHICH HOPEFULLY CAN BE
REFINED BASED ON OVERNIGHT/MORNING TRENDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET AFTER 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 260754
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TODAY...BUT OVERALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER LOOK LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
FIRST...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES STRETCHED FROM IOWA AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO JUST
BARELY LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WITHOUT THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUX OF WARMER AIR MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WITH A
FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED FRONT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOW INDICATE A CAP WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY NOT ERODE UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER (CLOSER TO THE FRONT).
NEXT...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT SHEARED OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO ERODE THE
CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
BROADER LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES MAY HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORM AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
OVERALL...POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT HIGHEST ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL TODAY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR STILL LOOK TO REACH 40-50 KNOTS AS AN UPPER SPEED MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD INSTABILITY HOWEVER IS IN QUESTION WITH
THE MID-LEVEL CAP EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY BECOMES IMPEDED BY CONVECTION FIRING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF THE DETROIT AREA...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER HELPING TO BOOST CAPE VALUES
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR DOES ARRIVE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80.

A PLUME OF DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RAMP DURING THIS SAME
TIMEFRAME AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE
BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN LOOK FAIRLY QUIET. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E PUSH...MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE COMPACT AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
VIRGINIAS JUDGING FROM MODEL MEAN RH CLUSTERING THERE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH SEPARATION TO ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM
AS IT SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTER OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF OUTPUT WITH THE
INDICATION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET BUT COULD ALSO BE EMBELLISHED BY INFLUENCE
OF THE MCS SOURCE REGION. ASSUMING LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION...THE RESULTING HYBRID WARM FRONT/TRIPLE
POINT WOULD THEN DIRECT THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS THROUGH OHIO. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PROCESS BUT
STILL INDICATES UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINT OVER OUR AREA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO GENERATE CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IS
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRONG CONTRIBUTIONS TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND THE DYNAMIC STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEMAND CAREFUL MONITORING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WHILE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION RUNS ITS COURSE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A MATURE CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE EAST
AND NORTH FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
WELL ORGANIZED THETA-E TROWAL AXIS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER INDICATIVE OF STRONG DEFORMATION FORCING THROUGH
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFS INDICATES THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
AXIS HIGHLIGHTED BY 700 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 3C REFLECTED IN UPPER 30S
K-INDEX...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND 850 MB BASED LI
AROUND -1C. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL FORECAST FOR
SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT WRINGING MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PATTERN. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES WOULD
NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS...BUT CONCERNS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE
EASED SLIGHTLY BY THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SMALL BUT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY MONDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH POLAR ORIGINS THAT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ENHANCED BY HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN ROCK SOLID MAINTENANCE OF THE
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST SUNDAY IN THE AREA OF LAKE
ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DELAYING SHRA CHANCES INTO MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. BY THAT TIME...LIFT FROM NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCROACH ON THE AREA AND COINCIDE WITH BETTER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
LOCATION OF BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEBULOUS...BUT MODELS
SEEM TO FOCUS NEARER THE I 94 TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
THIS AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A START...WHICH HOPEFULLY CAN BE
REFINED BASED ON OVERNIGHT/MORNING TRENDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET AFTER 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KGRR 260724
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT A
BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. WE/LL SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID TODAY AS SOUTH WINDS
PUSH MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AFTER SUNDAY`S STORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG...COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 MONDAY...SO DEFINITELY CHILLY FOR THE END
OF JULY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A
WARMING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY. IT/S NOT
ZERO...BUT IT`S NOT REAL HIGH EITHER. A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IS MOVING ESE. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. WE`VE GONE WITH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEN DRY TONIGHT.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WRAPPED UP SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS WITH IT. LI/S
NEAR -6C/SBCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KTS.
ORDINARILY...THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN NORTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS ARE. THAT
SAID...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.

AS THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING THAT IS IN PLACE
ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH IS AT ITS DEEPEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING AT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FEATURES TO KEY
ON...SO WITH THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THE COOL MID
LEVEL/JULY HEATING REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
COOL...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD WARM EACH DAY FROM THE LOW
70S ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 80 BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOWERING CEILING HEIGHTS INTO
SATURDAY...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR WEATHER TO OCCUR. KMKG
WILL LIKELY SEE THE LOWEST CEILINGS...IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD RISE OF VFR AS WELL. WHILE IT
DOES BECOME UNSTABLE SAT AFTN...NOT MUCH TO FOCUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT...SO TAFS ARE PRIMARILY DRY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FOOT WAVES
TODAY. STRONGER WINDS AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER WAVES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PUSH OF COLDER AIR FLOWS DOWN THE
LAKE. A SCA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AFTER A STRETCH OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WE WILL SEE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONE ROUND WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE ANOTHER ROUND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREA WIDE...TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE OUT
AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY BE BE HIGHER.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
POINT LONG TERM 5-7 DAY TOTALS ARE MORE ON THE BENEFICIAL SIDE
WITH RECENT DRY WEATHER. OVERALL...RIVER FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY. ANTICIPATED RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MINOR RISES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93










000
FXUS63 KGRR 260724
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT A
BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. WE/LL SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID TODAY AS SOUTH WINDS
PUSH MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AFTER SUNDAY`S STORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG...COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 MONDAY...SO DEFINITELY CHILLY FOR THE END
OF JULY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A
WARMING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY. IT/S NOT
ZERO...BUT IT`S NOT REAL HIGH EITHER. A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IS MOVING ESE. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. WE`VE GONE WITH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEN DRY TONIGHT.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WRAPPED UP SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS WITH IT. LI/S
NEAR -6C/SBCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KTS.
ORDINARILY...THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN NORTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS ARE. THAT
SAID...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.

AS THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING THAT IS IN PLACE
ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH IS AT ITS DEEPEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING AT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FEATURES TO KEY
ON...SO WITH THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THE COOL MID
LEVEL/JULY HEATING REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
COOL...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD WARM EACH DAY FROM THE LOW
70S ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 80 BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOWERING CEILING HEIGHTS INTO
SATURDAY...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR WEATHER TO OCCUR. KMKG
WILL LIKELY SEE THE LOWEST CEILINGS...IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD RISE OF VFR AS WELL. WHILE IT
DOES BECOME UNSTABLE SAT AFTN...NOT MUCH TO FOCUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT...SO TAFS ARE PRIMARILY DRY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FOOT WAVES
TODAY. STRONGER WINDS AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER WAVES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PUSH OF COLDER AIR FLOWS DOWN THE
LAKE. A SCA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AFTER A STRETCH OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WE WILL SEE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONE ROUND WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE ANOTHER ROUND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREA WIDE...TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE OUT
AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY BE BE HIGHER.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
POINT LONG TERM 5-7 DAY TOTALS ARE MORE ON THE BENEFICIAL SIDE
WITH RECENT DRY WEATHER. OVERALL...RIVER FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY. ANTICIPATED RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MINOR RISES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KAPX 260711
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
311 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLOW MODERATION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: TYPICAL NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CONCERNS TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER ENERGETIC LOOK TO
NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST NOTABLE FEATURES
OF INTEREST INCLUDE BROAD SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES...STRONG MID LEVEL LOW
ROTATING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CANADA...AND MUCH SMALLER IN SCALE BUT
TIGHTLY WOUND SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. SURFACE FEATURES NOT NEARLY AS PROMINENT AS THEIR MID LEVEL
PARENTS...WITH EAST COAST SURFACE HIGH STEADILY YIELDING TO
EAST ADVANCING UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COLD FRONT. MOISTURE
ADVECTION BETWEEN THESE TWO LATTER FEATURES QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH
SURGE OF UPPER 60/LOWER 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS MAKING A RUN INTO THE
FAR WESTERN LAKES. DESPITE MOISTURE...SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...TIED TO A LACK OF MORE COHERENT
DYNAMICS...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ATTEMPTING TO PERCOLATE TO
OUR NORTHWEST. PATTERN WILL REMAIN A PROGRESSIVE ONE FOR NOW...WITH
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST...CROSSING INTO AND
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSTANTIALLY LOOSING DEFINITION
AS IT DOES SO. MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
DIVE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A WET SUNDAY AS IT EVENTUALLY CUTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: MOSTLY CENTERED ON SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY.

DETAILS: GOTTA ADMIT THE OBVIOUS...CONFIDENCE FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS DESIRED. CLOUD TRENDS/FRONTAL
TIMING/POSSIBLE LAKE AIDED CONVERGENCE/AND VERY MARGINAL DYNAMICS
ALL COMING TOGETHER TO MAKE A MESS OF THE FORECAST. THROW IN JUMPY
GUIDANCE PROGS...DISPLAYING A FULL ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES (SOME
BRING A DECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THROUGH HERE THIS MORNING/WITH
LITTLE AFTER...OTHERS WAIT UNTIL LATER TODAY TO FIRE THINGS
OFF...WHILE SOME SHOW ESSENTIALLY NOTHING AT ALL)...AND ONE CAN
UNDERSTAND THE FIRST SENTENCE OF THIS PARAGRAPH. DEFINITELY NOT
BUYING ANY ONE SPECIFIC PIECE OF GUIDANCE...AND WILL SIMPLY RELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION AND ANTICIPATED FRONTAL TIMING FOR AN EDUCATED
FIRST GUESS. FIRST OFF...GOTTA BELIEVE SOME OF THAT DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BRINGING A SHOWER/ISOLATED
STORM THREAT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING A CORRIDOR OF WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR TIMING PURPOSES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER...ALTHOUGH CROSS
SECTIONS/BUFR SOUNDING SHOW AT LEAST SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE. DEFINITELY NOT
BUYING THE OVER AGGRESSIVE NAM WHICH GENERATES UPWARDS OF 2K-3K J/KG
OF ML CAPE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MUCH MORE
REASONABLE...KEEPING VALUES LARGELY UNDER A THOUSAND. BESIDES
DECAYING FRONT AND POSSIBLE LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HELP...JUST NOT SEEING A BUNCH OF MEANINGFUL DEEP DYNAMICS. FORCED
TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...USING A LARGELY CLIMATE LOOK TO AFTERNOON
POP GRIDS...KEEPING CHANCE MENTION IN FAVORED AREAS...DECREASING
POPS AS ONE GOES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. IGNORING THE OVER
AGGRESSIVE NAM-WRF...JUST NOT SEEING A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL
CAPE PROFILES.

ANY SHOWERS COME TO A QUICK END EARLY THIS EVENING...COURTESY OF DRY
MID LEVELS AND TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THAT CANADIAN VORT
BOMB. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS RIGHT TOWARDS MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE BEGIN TO INCREASE.
WILL PERUSE THE FULL RANGE OF 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DOING SUCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...MORE COOL WX ON THE WAY...

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. A SMALLER BUT SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW IN
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL GRADUALLY GET DRAWN INTO THE FORMER/S
CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE LATTER WILL DIG SE AND ACCELERATE...
REACHING LOWER MI SUNDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED AND DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM W CENTRAL LOWER MI TO METRO DETROIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING...THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING A SMIDGE
FASTER IN RECENT GUIDANCE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOLID CHANCE FOR
SHRA/MAYBE TSRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WE DRY OUT BUT COOL OFF. PRECIP AND
TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK OF
BOTH THE SURFACE AND 500MB LOWS ON SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT AVENUES FOR PRECIP GENERATION. ONE IS ANY DIURNAL HEATING
WE CAN MANAGE...COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT (500MB READINGS
LOWER FROM -12C TO -14C). HOWEVER...THE MORE LIKELY CULPRIT IS GOOD
OLE DEEP SYNOPTIC ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS. WE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE COMMA HEAD/WRAPAROUND PORTION OF THE LOW BEFORE
THINGS END SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT IS REASONABLY
TIGHT FOR THE SEASON TO START OUT SUNDAY...WITH READINGS FROM 12C
NEAR WHITEFISH BAY TO 20C NEARING FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS WELL ALOFT...IN THE 700-500MB LAYER...AS THE
SUB-700MB FLOW IS RATHER DISORGANIZED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ON TOP OF
US. SO THAT PRECIP-GENERATING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...BUT WON/T
BE SUPER-EFFICIENT.

THIS LEAVES OUR THINKING IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...THAT PRECIP IS HIGHLY LIKELY BUT NOT QUITE CERTAIN.
WOULDN/T BE DIFFICULT TO HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER GIVEN THE
COOLING ALOFT...BUT LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK WIND FIELDS
WILL LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD CONVEYOR BELT PROCEEDS SE. WILL EXIT PRECIP A BIT FASTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST. THE THUNDER THREAT WILL EXIT FASTER THAN PRECIP
WILL...BUT AM INCLINED TO ADD EVENING THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN INSTABILITY PROGS.

AM INCLINED TO GO BELOW MOST MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S. WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY ALL
NIGHT...MINS WILL LOWER BACK INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR SWEEPS BACK IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS C. THE COOL/RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT AN INVERSION AT
700MB SHOULD CUT OFF ANY CHANCE AT PRECIP. THE 00Z NAM HAS A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARD 00Z. ARRIVING AT
00Z...IT SHOULD AROUSE AT LEAST A SMIDGE OF SUSPICION. BUT THE NAM
IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT VIGOROUS...AND THE PROGGED COOLING ALOFT IS
NOT ENOUGH IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS TO GET PAST THE CAP. SO FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT IN A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY
MID 60S TO NEAR 70F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AS TO HOW THE EXTENDED
PLAYS OUT. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND TROFFING INTO THE
LAKES REGION...WILL BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE THRU THE WORK WEEK. EVEN
NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT...A
WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKES. THOUGH TEMPS WILL TEND TO
SLOWLY MODERATE (MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY...AND MONDAY
NIGHT THE COOLEST NIGHT)...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE
FORECAST.

THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS TO GENERATE PRECIP
HERE...OUTSIDE OF A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE GRAZING LAKE HURON FROM THE
NE TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE CAN GENERATE ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST THAT QUESTION IS NO...WITH A
CAPPED AIRMASS. HOWEVER...TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE MI. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING INTO
MICHIGAN. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN PRESENT BUT SMALL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AND EVENTUALLY WEST AOB 10 KTS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME ATTEMPT AT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO PICK UP UNTIL LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FROM THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY END UP BEING NEEDED TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 260711
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
311 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLOW MODERATION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: TYPICAL NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CONCERNS TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER ENERGETIC LOOK TO
NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST NOTABLE FEATURES
OF INTEREST INCLUDE BROAD SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES...STRONG MID LEVEL LOW
ROTATING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CANADA...AND MUCH SMALLER IN SCALE BUT
TIGHTLY WOUND SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. SURFACE FEATURES NOT NEARLY AS PROMINENT AS THEIR MID LEVEL
PARENTS...WITH EAST COAST SURFACE HIGH STEADILY YIELDING TO
EAST ADVANCING UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COLD FRONT. MOISTURE
ADVECTION BETWEEN THESE TWO LATTER FEATURES QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH
SURGE OF UPPER 60/LOWER 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS MAKING A RUN INTO THE
FAR WESTERN LAKES. DESPITE MOISTURE...SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...TIED TO A LACK OF MORE COHERENT
DYNAMICS...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ATTEMPTING TO PERCOLATE TO
OUR NORTHWEST. PATTERN WILL REMAIN A PROGRESSIVE ONE FOR NOW...WITH
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST...CROSSING INTO AND
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSTANTIALLY LOOSING DEFINITION
AS IT DOES SO. MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
DIVE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A WET SUNDAY AS IT EVENTUALLY CUTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: MOSTLY CENTERED ON SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY.

DETAILS: GOTTA ADMIT THE OBVIOUS...CONFIDENCE FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS DESIRED. CLOUD TRENDS/FRONTAL
TIMING/POSSIBLE LAKE AIDED CONVERGENCE/AND VERY MARGINAL DYNAMICS
ALL COMING TOGETHER TO MAKE A MESS OF THE FORECAST. THROW IN JUMPY
GUIDANCE PROGS...DISPLAYING A FULL ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES (SOME
BRING A DECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THROUGH HERE THIS MORNING/WITH
LITTLE AFTER...OTHERS WAIT UNTIL LATER TODAY TO FIRE THINGS
OFF...WHILE SOME SHOW ESSENTIALLY NOTHING AT ALL)...AND ONE CAN
UNDERSTAND THE FIRST SENTENCE OF THIS PARAGRAPH. DEFINITELY NOT
BUYING ANY ONE SPECIFIC PIECE OF GUIDANCE...AND WILL SIMPLY RELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION AND ANTICIPATED FRONTAL TIMING FOR AN EDUCATED
FIRST GUESS. FIRST OFF...GOTTA BELIEVE SOME OF THAT DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BRINGING A SHOWER/ISOLATED
STORM THREAT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING A CORRIDOR OF WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR TIMING PURPOSES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER...ALTHOUGH CROSS
SECTIONS/BUFR SOUNDING SHOW AT LEAST SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE. DEFINITELY NOT
BUYING THE OVER AGGRESSIVE NAM WHICH GENERATES UPWARDS OF 2K-3K J/KG
OF ML CAPE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MUCH MORE
REASONABLE...KEEPING VALUES LARGELY UNDER A THOUSAND. BESIDES
DECAYING FRONT AND POSSIBLE LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HELP...JUST NOT SEEING A BUNCH OF MEANINGFUL DEEP DYNAMICS. FORCED
TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...USING A LARGELY CLIMATE LOOK TO AFTERNOON
POP GRIDS...KEEPING CHANCE MENTION IN FAVORED AREAS...DECREASING
POPS AS ONE GOES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. IGNORING THE OVER
AGGRESSIVE NAM-WRF...JUST NOT SEEING A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL
CAPE PROFILES.

ANY SHOWERS COME TO A QUICK END EARLY THIS EVENING...COURTESY OF DRY
MID LEVELS AND TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THAT CANADIAN VORT
BOMB. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS RIGHT TOWARDS MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE BEGIN TO INCREASE.
WILL PERUSE THE FULL RANGE OF 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DOING SUCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...MORE COOL WX ON THE WAY...

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. A SMALLER BUT SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW IN
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL GRADUALLY GET DRAWN INTO THE FORMER/S
CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE LATTER WILL DIG SE AND ACCELERATE...
REACHING LOWER MI SUNDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED AND DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM W CENTRAL LOWER MI TO METRO DETROIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING...THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING A SMIDGE
FASTER IN RECENT GUIDANCE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOLID CHANCE FOR
SHRA/MAYBE TSRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WE DRY OUT BUT COOL OFF. PRECIP AND
TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK OF
BOTH THE SURFACE AND 500MB LOWS ON SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT AVENUES FOR PRECIP GENERATION. ONE IS ANY DIURNAL HEATING
WE CAN MANAGE...COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT (500MB READINGS
LOWER FROM -12C TO -14C). HOWEVER...THE MORE LIKELY CULPRIT IS GOOD
OLE DEEP SYNOPTIC ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS. WE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE COMMA HEAD/WRAPAROUND PORTION OF THE LOW BEFORE
THINGS END SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT IS REASONABLY
TIGHT FOR THE SEASON TO START OUT SUNDAY...WITH READINGS FROM 12C
NEAR WHITEFISH BAY TO 20C NEARING FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS WELL ALOFT...IN THE 700-500MB LAYER...AS THE
SUB-700MB FLOW IS RATHER DISORGANIZED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ON TOP OF
US. SO THAT PRECIP-GENERATING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...BUT WON/T
BE SUPER-EFFICIENT.

THIS LEAVES OUR THINKING IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...THAT PRECIP IS HIGHLY LIKELY BUT NOT QUITE CERTAIN.
WOULDN/T BE DIFFICULT TO HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER GIVEN THE
COOLING ALOFT...BUT LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK WIND FIELDS
WILL LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD CONVEYOR BELT PROCEEDS SE. WILL EXIT PRECIP A BIT FASTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST. THE THUNDER THREAT WILL EXIT FASTER THAN PRECIP
WILL...BUT AM INCLINED TO ADD EVENING THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN INSTABILITY PROGS.

AM INCLINED TO GO BELOW MOST MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S. WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY ALL
NIGHT...MINS WILL LOWER BACK INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR SWEEPS BACK IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS C. THE COOL/RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT AN INVERSION AT
700MB SHOULD CUT OFF ANY CHANCE AT PRECIP. THE 00Z NAM HAS A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARD 00Z. ARRIVING AT
00Z...IT SHOULD AROUSE AT LEAST A SMIDGE OF SUSPICION. BUT THE NAM
IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT VIGOROUS...AND THE PROGGED COOLING ALOFT IS
NOT ENOUGH IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS TO GET PAST THE CAP. SO FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT IN A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY
MID 60S TO NEAR 70F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AS TO HOW THE EXTENDED
PLAYS OUT. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND TROFFING INTO THE
LAKES REGION...WILL BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE THRU THE WORK WEEK. EVEN
NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT...A
WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKES. THOUGH TEMPS WILL TEND TO
SLOWLY MODERATE (MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY...AND MONDAY
NIGHT THE COOLEST NIGHT)...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE
FORECAST.

THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS TO GENERATE PRECIP
HERE...OUTSIDE OF A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE GRAZING LAKE HURON FROM THE
NE TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE CAN GENERATE ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST THAT QUESTION IS NO...WITH A
CAPPED AIRMASS. HOWEVER...TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE MI. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING INTO
MICHIGAN. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN PRESENT BUT SMALL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AND EVENTUALLY WEST AOB 10 KTS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME ATTEMPT AT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO PICK UP UNTIL LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FROM THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY END UP BEING NEEDED TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 260520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALF
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND SHRTWV RDG
AXIS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO MN/NW ONTARIO FM CENTER OF HIER HGTS OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SLOW INFLUX OF MOISTER AIR IN THE GENERAL
SW FLOW BTWN SFC/H85 HI OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER MSLP
IN THE NRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP CLOSED LO IN SRN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT IS RIDING OVER THE RDG CENTERED IN THE SRN ROCKIES
HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLDS/A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA TDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PCPN HAS BEEN WELL TO
THE SW CLOSER TO SHARP H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HI STABILITY SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND
ESPECIALLY THE GRB RAOB...WHICH DEPICTS A SHARP INVRN ARND H75...HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE
IMPACTED UPR MI. OVER THE ERN CWA...VERY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 12Z APX RAOB HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE SUNSHINE. BUT TO THE W...MORE
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN NE MN/WRN LK SUP IN AREA OF HIER H85 THETA E
ADVCTN IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER
ARND CLOSED LO IN SASKATCHEWAN. BUT EWD PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN THE NRN
PLAINS IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AS
WELL.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER.

LATE TDAY/TNGT...EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS NOW IN NE MN AND A FEW
TS...THE POTENTIAL OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT HIER MID LVL
STABILITY DEPICTED BEST ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS...TO SPREAD W-E INTO
UPR MI WITH AREA OF POSITIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN THAT WL LIFT PWAT UP
TO ARND 1.5 INCHES/AXIS OF SOME H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV NOW TRACKING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. BUT ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR
NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS WL TEND TO DIMINISH THE POPS LATER EVEN THOUGH
THERE ARE HINTS A 2ND SHRTWV MIGHT FOLLOW INTO THE UPR LKS. FCST
LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC OVER THE W LATE INDICATES THE DRYING WL
OVERCOME ANY PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. GOING FCST
POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND NEED ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING LATE...DVLPG LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL.

SAT...ANY LINGERING MRNG SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NE CWA WL END WITH
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF THAT WL DEPRESS PWAT TO 0.75-1.0 INCH/DNVA
AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV RDG TRAILING THE DEPARTING
2ND SHRTWV. WITH MRNG LO CLDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE AND FCST
H85 TEMPS AS HI AS 17-18C OVER THE W BY 00Z SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LKS. GIVEN THE MID LVL DRYING/POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING AND NEAR
ADIABATIC LLVL LAPSE RATES...PREFER THE HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS...AT LEAST OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS...MAINLY THE 12Z NAM AND REGIONAL CNDN MODEL...DO INDICATE
THIS DAYTIME HEATING WL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TS OVER THE ERN CWA IN
THE AFTN WITH CONVERGING LK BREEZES OFF LKS SUP/MI UNDER SOMEHWAT
LOWER HGTS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DLPMNT OF THESE LK
BREEZE SHOWERS/TS WL BE THE DRYING ALF THAT IS FCST TO MIX TO THE
SFC WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. IN FACT...DEEP MIXING ON THE GFS/NAM
FCST SDNGS HINT SFC DEWPTS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF COULD MIX OUT AS
LO AS 45-50 LATE IN THE DAY...WITH KINX DROPPING TO 15-20. THE NAM
FCST SDNG FOR NEWBERRY AT 18Z SHOWS SBCAPE ARND 2K G/KG FOR SFC T/TD
OF 75/65. PREFER THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS FCST FOR SFC T/TD OF
75/60 AND SBCAPE CLOSE TO 700 J/KG. DESPITE THE LIMITATION OF THE
LARGE SCALE DRYING...WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE ERN CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LK BREEZE CNVGC.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYS 7-10. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
THE COOLEST DAYS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CORE OF UPPER LOW
AND COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS LIKELY
WILL END UP AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
OVERALL THIS PATTERN LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS PER THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS.

BEST SHOT OF RAIN IS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER
LOW AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
MOVES ACROSS WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE OCCURS AS THE INITIAL STRONG SFC-H85 COLD FRONT
IS CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAST WILL THE
RAIN ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALSO IF THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA. SI/S BARELY BUMP BLO ZERO AND THAT IS FOCUSED ALONG THE WI
BORDER. HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED JUST TO NORTH OF UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
TRACK...MAINLY 09Z-21Z SUNDAY. TSRA CHANCES ARE THERE...BUT ARE
LIMITED TO A CHANCE AT BEST. UNLESS THE STORMS FORM EARLIER SATURDAY
EVENING WHEN DEEP SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS AND MLCAPE IS OVER 1000 J/KG...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. INTO SUNDAY IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS THERE WOULD BE INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR SFC BASED TSRA SUNDAY AFTN. ATTM THOUGH LI/S BLO ZERO ARE
FORECAST TO STAY OVER WI AS STABLE COOL RAINY NORTH FLOW SHUNTS THE
GREATER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. LOWERED TEMPS MORE ALONG LK
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY...WITH UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. POINTS
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN U.P. MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES AT
LEAST BRIEFLY BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEGIN.

SHOULD NOTE THAT THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES WILL
INCREASE SWIM RISK FOR BEACHES OF LK SUPERIOR MQT TO GRAND MARAIS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF THE AIR TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S OR
HIGHER...WOULD NEED A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RISK
EITHER FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY OR POSSIBLY BOTH DAYS. ULTIMATELY WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR THE DAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY COUPLED WITH INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/INSOLATION TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCTD
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING AFTN AND EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL RISING HEIGHTS RESULT IN LESS CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BY THURSDAY AND THERE IS ALSO LESS DEEP MOISTURE BY THAT POINT.
EXPECT THE CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS WEEK
AS TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN. JUST ENOUGH MLCAPE DURING THE AFTN
FAR INLAND TO PUT KEEP SMALL TSRA CHANCES AS WELL WITH THE SHRA. MEAN
WINDS FM NORTH TO SOUTH RESULT IN GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MOST DAYS
FARTHEST INLAND FROM THE MODERATION/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SPRINKLES...CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
AREA OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WITH DRYING ALOFT LATER ON THIS AM CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIFR CIGS.
ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS...CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. TIMING TO BE
DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION...AS ANY UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELAY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. AT THIS TIME...KCMX TO BE THE SLOWEST OUT OF
THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AS UPSLOPE NW WINDS TO HELP THESE LOWER CEILINGS
HOLD ON TIL AROUND 14Z. AFTER THEN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUE AND BACK
TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS/JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 260520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALF
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND SHRTWV RDG
AXIS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO MN/NW ONTARIO FM CENTER OF HIER HGTS OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SLOW INFLUX OF MOISTER AIR IN THE GENERAL
SW FLOW BTWN SFC/H85 HI OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER MSLP
IN THE NRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP CLOSED LO IN SRN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT IS RIDING OVER THE RDG CENTERED IN THE SRN ROCKIES
HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLDS/A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA TDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PCPN HAS BEEN WELL TO
THE SW CLOSER TO SHARP H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HI STABILITY SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND
ESPECIALLY THE GRB RAOB...WHICH DEPICTS A SHARP INVRN ARND H75...HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE
IMPACTED UPR MI. OVER THE ERN CWA...VERY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 12Z APX RAOB HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE SUNSHINE. BUT TO THE W...MORE
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN NE MN/WRN LK SUP IN AREA OF HIER H85 THETA E
ADVCTN IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER
ARND CLOSED LO IN SASKATCHEWAN. BUT EWD PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN THE NRN
PLAINS IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AS
WELL.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER.

LATE TDAY/TNGT...EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS NOW IN NE MN AND A FEW
TS...THE POTENTIAL OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT HIER MID LVL
STABILITY DEPICTED BEST ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS...TO SPREAD W-E INTO
UPR MI WITH AREA OF POSITIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN THAT WL LIFT PWAT UP
TO ARND 1.5 INCHES/AXIS OF SOME H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV NOW TRACKING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. BUT ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR
NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS WL TEND TO DIMINISH THE POPS LATER EVEN THOUGH
THERE ARE HINTS A 2ND SHRTWV MIGHT FOLLOW INTO THE UPR LKS. FCST
LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC OVER THE W LATE INDICATES THE DRYING WL
OVERCOME ANY PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. GOING FCST
POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND NEED ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING LATE...DVLPG LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL.

SAT...ANY LINGERING MRNG SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NE CWA WL END WITH
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF THAT WL DEPRESS PWAT TO 0.75-1.0 INCH/DNVA
AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV RDG TRAILING THE DEPARTING
2ND SHRTWV. WITH MRNG LO CLDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE AND FCST
H85 TEMPS AS HI AS 17-18C OVER THE W BY 00Z SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LKS. GIVEN THE MID LVL DRYING/POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING AND NEAR
ADIABATIC LLVL LAPSE RATES...PREFER THE HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS...AT LEAST OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS...MAINLY THE 12Z NAM AND REGIONAL CNDN MODEL...DO INDICATE
THIS DAYTIME HEATING WL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TS OVER THE ERN CWA IN
THE AFTN WITH CONVERGING LK BREEZES OFF LKS SUP/MI UNDER SOMEHWAT
LOWER HGTS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DLPMNT OF THESE LK
BREEZE SHOWERS/TS WL BE THE DRYING ALF THAT IS FCST TO MIX TO THE
SFC WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. IN FACT...DEEP MIXING ON THE GFS/NAM
FCST SDNGS HINT SFC DEWPTS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF COULD MIX OUT AS
LO AS 45-50 LATE IN THE DAY...WITH KINX DROPPING TO 15-20. THE NAM
FCST SDNG FOR NEWBERRY AT 18Z SHOWS SBCAPE ARND 2K G/KG FOR SFC T/TD
OF 75/65. PREFER THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS FCST FOR SFC T/TD OF
75/60 AND SBCAPE CLOSE TO 700 J/KG. DESPITE THE LIMITATION OF THE
LARGE SCALE DRYING...WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE ERN CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LK BREEZE CNVGC.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYS 7-10. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
THE COOLEST DAYS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CORE OF UPPER LOW
AND COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS LIKELY
WILL END UP AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
OVERALL THIS PATTERN LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS PER THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS.

BEST SHOT OF RAIN IS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER
LOW AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
MOVES ACROSS WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE OCCURS AS THE INITIAL STRONG SFC-H85 COLD FRONT
IS CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAST WILL THE
RAIN ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALSO IF THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA. SI/S BARELY BUMP BLO ZERO AND THAT IS FOCUSED ALONG THE WI
BORDER. HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED JUST TO NORTH OF UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
TRACK...MAINLY 09Z-21Z SUNDAY. TSRA CHANCES ARE THERE...BUT ARE
LIMITED TO A CHANCE AT BEST. UNLESS THE STORMS FORM EARLIER SATURDAY
EVENING WHEN DEEP SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS AND MLCAPE IS OVER 1000 J/KG...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. INTO SUNDAY IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS THERE WOULD BE INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR SFC BASED TSRA SUNDAY AFTN. ATTM THOUGH LI/S BLO ZERO ARE
FORECAST TO STAY OVER WI AS STABLE COOL RAINY NORTH FLOW SHUNTS THE
GREATER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. LOWERED TEMPS MORE ALONG LK
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY...WITH UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. POINTS
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN U.P. MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES AT
LEAST BRIEFLY BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEGIN.

SHOULD NOTE THAT THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES WILL
INCREASE SWIM RISK FOR BEACHES OF LK SUPERIOR MQT TO GRAND MARAIS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF THE AIR TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S OR
HIGHER...WOULD NEED A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RISK
EITHER FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY OR POSSIBLY BOTH DAYS. ULTIMATELY WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR THE DAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY COUPLED WITH INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/INSOLATION TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCTD
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING AFTN AND EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL RISING HEIGHTS RESULT IN LESS CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BY THURSDAY AND THERE IS ALSO LESS DEEP MOISTURE BY THAT POINT.
EXPECT THE CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS WEEK
AS TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN. JUST ENOUGH MLCAPE DURING THE AFTN
FAR INLAND TO PUT KEEP SMALL TSRA CHANCES AS WELL WITH THE SHRA. MEAN
WINDS FM NORTH TO SOUTH RESULT IN GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MOST DAYS
FARTHEST INLAND FROM THE MODERATION/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SPRINKLES...CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
AREA OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WITH DRYING ALOFT LATER ON THIS AM CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIFR CIGS.
ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS...CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. TIMING TO BE
DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION...AS ANY UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELAY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. AT THIS TIME...KCMX TO BE THE SLOWEST OUT OF
THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AS UPSLOPE NW WINDS TO HELP THESE LOWER CEILINGS
HOLD ON TIL AROUND 14Z. AFTER THEN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUE AND BACK
TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS/JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 260520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALF
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND SHRTWV RDG
AXIS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO MN/NW ONTARIO FM CENTER OF HIER HGTS OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SLOW INFLUX OF MOISTER AIR IN THE GENERAL
SW FLOW BTWN SFC/H85 HI OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER MSLP
IN THE NRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP CLOSED LO IN SRN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT IS RIDING OVER THE RDG CENTERED IN THE SRN ROCKIES
HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLDS/A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA TDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PCPN HAS BEEN WELL TO
THE SW CLOSER TO SHARP H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HI STABILITY SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND
ESPECIALLY THE GRB RAOB...WHICH DEPICTS A SHARP INVRN ARND H75...HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE
IMPACTED UPR MI. OVER THE ERN CWA...VERY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 12Z APX RAOB HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE SUNSHINE. BUT TO THE W...MORE
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN NE MN/WRN LK SUP IN AREA OF HIER H85 THETA E
ADVCTN IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER
ARND CLOSED LO IN SASKATCHEWAN. BUT EWD PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN THE NRN
PLAINS IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AS
WELL.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER.

LATE TDAY/TNGT...EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS NOW IN NE MN AND A FEW
TS...THE POTENTIAL OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT HIER MID LVL
STABILITY DEPICTED BEST ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS...TO SPREAD W-E INTO
UPR MI WITH AREA OF POSITIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN THAT WL LIFT PWAT UP
TO ARND 1.5 INCHES/AXIS OF SOME H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV NOW TRACKING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. BUT ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR
NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS WL TEND TO DIMINISH THE POPS LATER EVEN THOUGH
THERE ARE HINTS A 2ND SHRTWV MIGHT FOLLOW INTO THE UPR LKS. FCST
LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC OVER THE W LATE INDICATES THE DRYING WL
OVERCOME ANY PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. GOING FCST
POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND NEED ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING LATE...DVLPG LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL.

SAT...ANY LINGERING MRNG SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NE CWA WL END WITH
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF THAT WL DEPRESS PWAT TO 0.75-1.0 INCH/DNVA
AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV RDG TRAILING THE DEPARTING
2ND SHRTWV. WITH MRNG LO CLDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE AND FCST
H85 TEMPS AS HI AS 17-18C OVER THE W BY 00Z SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LKS. GIVEN THE MID LVL DRYING/POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING AND NEAR
ADIABATIC LLVL LAPSE RATES...PREFER THE HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS...AT LEAST OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS...MAINLY THE 12Z NAM AND REGIONAL CNDN MODEL...DO INDICATE
THIS DAYTIME HEATING WL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TS OVER THE ERN CWA IN
THE AFTN WITH CONVERGING LK BREEZES OFF LKS SUP/MI UNDER SOMEHWAT
LOWER HGTS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DLPMNT OF THESE LK
BREEZE SHOWERS/TS WL BE THE DRYING ALF THAT IS FCST TO MIX TO THE
SFC WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. IN FACT...DEEP MIXING ON THE GFS/NAM
FCST SDNGS HINT SFC DEWPTS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF COULD MIX OUT AS
LO AS 45-50 LATE IN THE DAY...WITH KINX DROPPING TO 15-20. THE NAM
FCST SDNG FOR NEWBERRY AT 18Z SHOWS SBCAPE ARND 2K G/KG FOR SFC T/TD
OF 75/65. PREFER THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS FCST FOR SFC T/TD OF
75/60 AND SBCAPE CLOSE TO 700 J/KG. DESPITE THE LIMITATION OF THE
LARGE SCALE DRYING...WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE ERN CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LK BREEZE CNVGC.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYS 7-10. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
THE COOLEST DAYS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CORE OF UPPER LOW
AND COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS LIKELY
WILL END UP AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
OVERALL THIS PATTERN LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS PER THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS.

BEST SHOT OF RAIN IS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER
LOW AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
MOVES ACROSS WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE OCCURS AS THE INITIAL STRONG SFC-H85 COLD FRONT
IS CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAST WILL THE
RAIN ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALSO IF THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA. SI/S BARELY BUMP BLO ZERO AND THAT IS FOCUSED ALONG THE WI
BORDER. HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED JUST TO NORTH OF UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
TRACK...MAINLY 09Z-21Z SUNDAY. TSRA CHANCES ARE THERE...BUT ARE
LIMITED TO A CHANCE AT BEST. UNLESS THE STORMS FORM EARLIER SATURDAY
EVENING WHEN DEEP SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS AND MLCAPE IS OVER 1000 J/KG...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. INTO SUNDAY IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS THERE WOULD BE INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR SFC BASED TSRA SUNDAY AFTN. ATTM THOUGH LI/S BLO ZERO ARE
FORECAST TO STAY OVER WI AS STABLE COOL RAINY NORTH FLOW SHUNTS THE
GREATER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. LOWERED TEMPS MORE ALONG LK
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY...WITH UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. POINTS
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN U.P. MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES AT
LEAST BRIEFLY BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEGIN.

SHOULD NOTE THAT THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES WILL
INCREASE SWIM RISK FOR BEACHES OF LK SUPERIOR MQT TO GRAND MARAIS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF THE AIR TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S OR
HIGHER...WOULD NEED A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RISK
EITHER FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY OR POSSIBLY BOTH DAYS. ULTIMATELY WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR THE DAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY COUPLED WITH INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/INSOLATION TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCTD
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING AFTN AND EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL RISING HEIGHTS RESULT IN LESS CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BY THURSDAY AND THERE IS ALSO LESS DEEP MOISTURE BY THAT POINT.
EXPECT THE CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS WEEK
AS TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN. JUST ENOUGH MLCAPE DURING THE AFTN
FAR INLAND TO PUT KEEP SMALL TSRA CHANCES AS WELL WITH THE SHRA. MEAN
WINDS FM NORTH TO SOUTH RESULT IN GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MOST DAYS
FARTHEST INLAND FROM THE MODERATION/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SPRINKLES...CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
AREA OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WITH DRYING ALOFT LATER ON THIS AM CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIFR CIGS.
ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS...CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. TIMING TO BE
DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION...AS ANY UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELAY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. AT THIS TIME...KCMX TO BE THE SLOWEST OUT OF
THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AS UPSLOPE NW WINDS TO HELP THESE LOWER CEILINGS
HOLD ON TIL AROUND 14Z. AFTER THEN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUE AND BACK
TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS/JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 260520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALF
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND SHRTWV RDG
AXIS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO MN/NW ONTARIO FM CENTER OF HIER HGTS OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SLOW INFLUX OF MOISTER AIR IN THE GENERAL
SW FLOW BTWN SFC/H85 HI OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER MSLP
IN THE NRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP CLOSED LO IN SRN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT IS RIDING OVER THE RDG CENTERED IN THE SRN ROCKIES
HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLDS/A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA TDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PCPN HAS BEEN WELL TO
THE SW CLOSER TO SHARP H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HI STABILITY SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND
ESPECIALLY THE GRB RAOB...WHICH DEPICTS A SHARP INVRN ARND H75...HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE
IMPACTED UPR MI. OVER THE ERN CWA...VERY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 12Z APX RAOB HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE SUNSHINE. BUT TO THE W...MORE
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN NE MN/WRN LK SUP IN AREA OF HIER H85 THETA E
ADVCTN IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER
ARND CLOSED LO IN SASKATCHEWAN. BUT EWD PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN THE NRN
PLAINS IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AS
WELL.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER.

LATE TDAY/TNGT...EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS NOW IN NE MN AND A FEW
TS...THE POTENTIAL OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT HIER MID LVL
STABILITY DEPICTED BEST ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS...TO SPREAD W-E INTO
UPR MI WITH AREA OF POSITIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN THAT WL LIFT PWAT UP
TO ARND 1.5 INCHES/AXIS OF SOME H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV NOW TRACKING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. BUT ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR
NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS WL TEND TO DIMINISH THE POPS LATER EVEN THOUGH
THERE ARE HINTS A 2ND SHRTWV MIGHT FOLLOW INTO THE UPR LKS. FCST
LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC OVER THE W LATE INDICATES THE DRYING WL
OVERCOME ANY PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. GOING FCST
POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND NEED ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING LATE...DVLPG LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL.

SAT...ANY LINGERING MRNG SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NE CWA WL END WITH
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF THAT WL DEPRESS PWAT TO 0.75-1.0 INCH/DNVA
AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV RDG TRAILING THE DEPARTING
2ND SHRTWV. WITH MRNG LO CLDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE AND FCST
H85 TEMPS AS HI AS 17-18C OVER THE W BY 00Z SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LKS. GIVEN THE MID LVL DRYING/POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING AND NEAR
ADIABATIC LLVL LAPSE RATES...PREFER THE HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS...AT LEAST OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS...MAINLY THE 12Z NAM AND REGIONAL CNDN MODEL...DO INDICATE
THIS DAYTIME HEATING WL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TS OVER THE ERN CWA IN
THE AFTN WITH CONVERGING LK BREEZES OFF LKS SUP/MI UNDER SOMEHWAT
LOWER HGTS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DLPMNT OF THESE LK
BREEZE SHOWERS/TS WL BE THE DRYING ALF THAT IS FCST TO MIX TO THE
SFC WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. IN FACT...DEEP MIXING ON THE GFS/NAM
FCST SDNGS HINT SFC DEWPTS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF COULD MIX OUT AS
LO AS 45-50 LATE IN THE DAY...WITH KINX DROPPING TO 15-20. THE NAM
FCST SDNG FOR NEWBERRY AT 18Z SHOWS SBCAPE ARND 2K G/KG FOR SFC T/TD
OF 75/65. PREFER THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS FCST FOR SFC T/TD OF
75/60 AND SBCAPE CLOSE TO 700 J/KG. DESPITE THE LIMITATION OF THE
LARGE SCALE DRYING...WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE ERN CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LK BREEZE CNVGC.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYS 7-10. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
THE COOLEST DAYS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CORE OF UPPER LOW
AND COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS LIKELY
WILL END UP AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
OVERALL THIS PATTERN LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS PER THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS.

BEST SHOT OF RAIN IS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER
LOW AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
MOVES ACROSS WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE OCCURS AS THE INITIAL STRONG SFC-H85 COLD FRONT
IS CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAST WILL THE
RAIN ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALSO IF THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA. SI/S BARELY BUMP BLO ZERO AND THAT IS FOCUSED ALONG THE WI
BORDER. HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED JUST TO NORTH OF UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
TRACK...MAINLY 09Z-21Z SUNDAY. TSRA CHANCES ARE THERE...BUT ARE
LIMITED TO A CHANCE AT BEST. UNLESS THE STORMS FORM EARLIER SATURDAY
EVENING WHEN DEEP SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS AND MLCAPE IS OVER 1000 J/KG...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. INTO SUNDAY IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS THERE WOULD BE INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR SFC BASED TSRA SUNDAY AFTN. ATTM THOUGH LI/S BLO ZERO ARE
FORECAST TO STAY OVER WI AS STABLE COOL RAINY NORTH FLOW SHUNTS THE
GREATER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. LOWERED TEMPS MORE ALONG LK
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY...WITH UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. POINTS
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN U.P. MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES AT
LEAST BRIEFLY BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEGIN.

SHOULD NOTE THAT THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES WILL
INCREASE SWIM RISK FOR BEACHES OF LK SUPERIOR MQT TO GRAND MARAIS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF THE AIR TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S OR
HIGHER...WOULD NEED A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RISK
EITHER FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY OR POSSIBLY BOTH DAYS. ULTIMATELY WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR THE DAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY COUPLED WITH INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/INSOLATION TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCTD
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING AFTN AND EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL RISING HEIGHTS RESULT IN LESS CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BY THURSDAY AND THERE IS ALSO LESS DEEP MOISTURE BY THAT POINT.
EXPECT THE CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS WEEK
AS TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN. JUST ENOUGH MLCAPE DURING THE AFTN
FAR INLAND TO PUT KEEP SMALL TSRA CHANCES AS WELL WITH THE SHRA. MEAN
WINDS FM NORTH TO SOUTH RESULT IN GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MOST DAYS
FARTHEST INLAND FROM THE MODERATION/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SPRINKLES...CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
AREA OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WITH DRYING ALOFT LATER ON THIS AM CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIFR CIGS.
ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS...CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. TIMING TO BE
DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION...AS ANY UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELAY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. AT THIS TIME...KCMX TO BE THE SLOWEST OUT OF
THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AS UPSLOPE NW WINDS TO HELP THESE LOWER CEILINGS
HOLD ON TIL AROUND 14Z. AFTER THEN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUE AND BACK
TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS/JLA






000
FXUS63 KAPX 260502
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
102 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLOW MODERATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...

CURRENTLY, A WING OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS HAS BEEN CONTINUING,
ALBEIT WEAKLY, IN C AND E WISCONSIN, AND IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN, BUT HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING INTO THE DRY AIR.
THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SE OF THE REGION HAS BEEN
ABLE TO WARM AND MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS (AROUND 700 MB) THAT
HAS BEEN ABLE TO INHIBIT THE RAIN. THERE IS A CAPPING INVERSION
THAT IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 00Z,
AND BY THE LOOKS OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, AND THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS
THIS MORNING, THE CHANCES FOR THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THAT BY 12Z, THE RAIN SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
SHOULD BE EXITING NE LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT
THAT WE HAVEN`T BROKEN INTO THE WARM SECTOR, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
STILL SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z IN NW LOWER.
ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF NOTHING HAPPENS AFTER THE SFC
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF I-75. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL, BUT NOT
FALL TOO MUCH OUT OF THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH THE SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE U.S.
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN WITHIN THIS FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN
FEATURES A BROAD RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S...
CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A SMALLER UPPER LOW
OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH PRAIRIES SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND BACK WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN.  WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA HAS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  NARROW AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY 1.00-1.50
INCHES)...DRIER POCKET OF AIR ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN
GREAT LAKES WEATHER THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST AND HELP REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST WHILE
PULLING LOWER HEIGHTS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL SEND
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO MICHIGAN FOR NEXT WEEK...PROBABLY
STARTING LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  INITIAL COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO MICHIGAN SATURDAY BUT
WEAKENING AS IT DOES...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH
THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): INCREASING RAIN THREAT THIS
WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF INITIAL COLD FRONT SATURDAY...AND SHORT WAVE
DYNAMICS SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (SATURDAY/SUNDAY):  SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY START OUT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ALONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE US-131 CORRIDOR.  QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...AND THOUGH CLOUDS MAY HANG ON FOR A
WHILE DO THINK WE`LL SEE ENOUGH THINNING TO GENERATE ON THE ORDER OF
500-1000J/KG MLCAPE AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO WORK ON (ALONG WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE THAT MAY
FORM).  COULD BE A LAKE SHADOW ALONG NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES PROVIDED NOTHING FORMS UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
AND TRIES TO MAKE A RUN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.  BUT WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES ON THE CHANCY SIDE...A LITTLE TOUGH TO GET A GOOD
HANDLE ON SOLID FEATURES TO FOCUS ON.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY QUIET OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EVENING...SOME FOG POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WITH IT
A MORE DEFINED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.  RAINFALL SHOULD BE A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC/
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH (SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH)...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING.  SO PLAN TO CARRY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): COOL/BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHOT OF COOL JULY AIR OVERSPREADS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  WOULD EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF (MOSTLY)
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER MONDAY...LOOKS MOSTLY DRY PROVIDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLEARS LOWER MICHIGAN IN A TIMELY FASHION.
850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD COVER SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.  THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES PRETTY NON-DESCRIPT
SITTING BENEATH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INSTABILITY WITHIN COLD AIR ALOFT ANY SMALL THING MAY GENERATE SOME
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.  LITTLE MORE MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY KICK UP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.  NOT EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER-MID 70S
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OUTLOOK (THURSDAY/FRIDAY):  STILL COOL THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE
MAY HELP GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.  WILL START
FRIDAY OUT DRY...THOUGH THAT IS PRETTY MUCH A TOSS-UP AT THIS
POINT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR EARLY AUGUST
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING INTO
MICHIGAN. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN PRESENT BUT SMALL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AND EVENTUALLY WEST AOB 10 KTS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK INTO THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY PROMOTE
SOME ATTEMPT AT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS NOT REALLY EXPECTED
TO PICK UP UNTIL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FROM THE
NORTH IN ITS WAKE.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY END UP BEING NEEDED
TO START NEXT WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 260502
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
102 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLOW MODERATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...

CURRENTLY, A WING OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS HAS BEEN CONTINUING,
ALBEIT WEAKLY, IN C AND E WISCONSIN, AND IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN, BUT HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING INTO THE DRY AIR.
THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SE OF THE REGION HAS BEEN
ABLE TO WARM AND MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS (AROUND 700 MB) THAT
HAS BEEN ABLE TO INHIBIT THE RAIN. THERE IS A CAPPING INVERSION
THAT IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 00Z,
AND BY THE LOOKS OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, AND THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS
THIS MORNING, THE CHANCES FOR THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THAT BY 12Z, THE RAIN SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
SHOULD BE EXITING NE LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT
THAT WE HAVEN`T BROKEN INTO THE WARM SECTOR, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
STILL SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z IN NW LOWER.
ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF NOTHING HAPPENS AFTER THE SFC
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF I-75. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL, BUT NOT
FALL TOO MUCH OUT OF THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH THE SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE U.S.
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN WITHIN THIS FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN
FEATURES A BROAD RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S...
CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A SMALLER UPPER LOW
OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH PRAIRIES SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND BACK WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN.  WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA HAS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  NARROW AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY 1.00-1.50
INCHES)...DRIER POCKET OF AIR ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN
GREAT LAKES WEATHER THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST AND HELP REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST WHILE
PULLING LOWER HEIGHTS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL SEND
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO MICHIGAN FOR NEXT WEEK...PROBABLY
STARTING LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  INITIAL COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO MICHIGAN SATURDAY BUT
WEAKENING AS IT DOES...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH
THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): INCREASING RAIN THREAT THIS
WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF INITIAL COLD FRONT SATURDAY...AND SHORT WAVE
DYNAMICS SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (SATURDAY/SUNDAY):  SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY START OUT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ALONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE US-131 CORRIDOR.  QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...AND THOUGH CLOUDS MAY HANG ON FOR A
WHILE DO THINK WE`LL SEE ENOUGH THINNING TO GENERATE ON THE ORDER OF
500-1000J/KG MLCAPE AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO WORK ON (ALONG WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE THAT MAY
FORM).  COULD BE A LAKE SHADOW ALONG NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES PROVIDED NOTHING FORMS UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
AND TRIES TO MAKE A RUN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.  BUT WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES ON THE CHANCY SIDE...A LITTLE TOUGH TO GET A GOOD
HANDLE ON SOLID FEATURES TO FOCUS ON.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY QUIET OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EVENING...SOME FOG POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WITH IT
A MORE DEFINED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.  RAINFALL SHOULD BE A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC/
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH (SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH)...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING.  SO PLAN TO CARRY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): COOL/BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHOT OF COOL JULY AIR OVERSPREADS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  WOULD EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF (MOSTLY)
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER MONDAY...LOOKS MOSTLY DRY PROVIDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLEARS LOWER MICHIGAN IN A TIMELY FASHION.
850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD COVER SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.  THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES PRETTY NON-DESCRIPT
SITTING BENEATH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INSTABILITY WITHIN COLD AIR ALOFT ANY SMALL THING MAY GENERATE SOME
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.  LITTLE MORE MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY KICK UP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.  NOT EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER-MID 70S
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OUTLOOK (THURSDAY/FRIDAY):  STILL COOL THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE
MAY HELP GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.  WILL START
FRIDAY OUT DRY...THOUGH THAT IS PRETTY MUCH A TOSS-UP AT THIS
POINT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR EARLY AUGUST
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING INTO
MICHIGAN. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN PRESENT BUT SMALL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AND EVENTUALLY WEST AOB 10 KTS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK INTO THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY PROMOTE
SOME ATTEMPT AT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS NOT REALLY EXPECTED
TO PICK UP UNTIL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FROM THE
NORTH IN ITS WAKE.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY END UP BEING NEEDED
TO START NEXT WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 260502
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
102 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLOW MODERATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...

CURRENTLY, A WING OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS HAS BEEN CONTINUING,
ALBEIT WEAKLY, IN C AND E WISCONSIN, AND IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN, BUT HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING INTO THE DRY AIR.
THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SE OF THE REGION HAS BEEN
ABLE TO WARM AND MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS (AROUND 700 MB) THAT
HAS BEEN ABLE TO INHIBIT THE RAIN. THERE IS A CAPPING INVERSION
THAT IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 00Z,
AND BY THE LOOKS OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, AND THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS
THIS MORNING, THE CHANCES FOR THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THAT BY 12Z, THE RAIN SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
SHOULD BE EXITING NE LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT
THAT WE HAVEN`T BROKEN INTO THE WARM SECTOR, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
STILL SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z IN NW LOWER.
ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF NOTHING HAPPENS AFTER THE SFC
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF I-75. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL, BUT NOT
FALL TOO MUCH OUT OF THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH THE SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE U.S.
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN WITHIN THIS FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN
FEATURES A BROAD RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S...
CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A SMALLER UPPER LOW
OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH PRAIRIES SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND BACK WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN.  WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA HAS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  NARROW AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY 1.00-1.50
INCHES)...DRIER POCKET OF AIR ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN
GREAT LAKES WEATHER THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST AND HELP REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST WHILE
PULLING LOWER HEIGHTS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL SEND
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO MICHIGAN FOR NEXT WEEK...PROBABLY
STARTING LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  INITIAL COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO MICHIGAN SATURDAY BUT
WEAKENING AS IT DOES...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH
THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): INCREASING RAIN THREAT THIS
WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF INITIAL COLD FRONT SATURDAY...AND SHORT WAVE
DYNAMICS SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (SATURDAY/SUNDAY):  SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY START OUT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ALONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE US-131 CORRIDOR.  QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...AND THOUGH CLOUDS MAY HANG ON FOR A
WHILE DO THINK WE`LL SEE ENOUGH THINNING TO GENERATE ON THE ORDER OF
500-1000J/KG MLCAPE AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO WORK ON (ALONG WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE THAT MAY
FORM).  COULD BE A LAKE SHADOW ALONG NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES PROVIDED NOTHING FORMS UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
AND TRIES TO MAKE A RUN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.  BUT WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES ON THE CHANCY SIDE...A LITTLE TOUGH TO GET A GOOD
HANDLE ON SOLID FEATURES TO FOCUS ON.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY QUIET OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EVENING...SOME FOG POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WITH IT
A MORE DEFINED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.  RAINFALL SHOULD BE A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC/
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH (SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH)...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING.  SO PLAN TO CARRY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): COOL/BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHOT OF COOL JULY AIR OVERSPREADS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  WOULD EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF (MOSTLY)
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER MONDAY...LOOKS MOSTLY DRY PROVIDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLEARS LOWER MICHIGAN IN A TIMELY FASHION.
850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD COVER SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.  THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES PRETTY NON-DESCRIPT
SITTING BENEATH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INSTABILITY WITHIN COLD AIR ALOFT ANY SMALL THING MAY GENERATE SOME
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.  LITTLE MORE MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY KICK UP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.  NOT EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER-MID 70S
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OUTLOOK (THURSDAY/FRIDAY):  STILL COOL THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE
MAY HELP GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.  WILL START
FRIDAY OUT DRY...THOUGH THAT IS PRETTY MUCH A TOSS-UP AT THIS
POINT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR EARLY AUGUST
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING INTO
MICHIGAN. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN PRESENT BUT SMALL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AND EVENTUALLY WEST AOB 10 KTS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK INTO THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY PROMOTE
SOME ATTEMPT AT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS NOT REALLY EXPECTED
TO PICK UP UNTIL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FROM THE
NORTH IN ITS WAKE.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY END UP BEING NEEDED
TO START NEXT WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 260502
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
102 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLOW MODERATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...

CURRENTLY, A WING OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS HAS BEEN CONTINUING,
ALBEIT WEAKLY, IN C AND E WISCONSIN, AND IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN, BUT HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING INTO THE DRY AIR.
THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SE OF THE REGION HAS BEEN
ABLE TO WARM AND MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS (AROUND 700 MB) THAT
HAS BEEN ABLE TO INHIBIT THE RAIN. THERE IS A CAPPING INVERSION
THAT IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 00Z,
AND BY THE LOOKS OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, AND THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS
THIS MORNING, THE CHANCES FOR THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SO THAT BY 12Z, THE RAIN SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
SHOULD BE EXITING NE LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT
THAT WE HAVEN`T BROKEN INTO THE WARM SECTOR, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
STILL SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z IN NW LOWER.
ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF NOTHING HAPPENS AFTER THE SFC
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF I-75. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL, BUT NOT
FALL TOO MUCH OUT OF THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH THE SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE U.S.
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN WITHIN THIS FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN
FEATURES A BROAD RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S...
CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A SMALLER UPPER LOW
OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH PRAIRIES SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND BACK WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN.  WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA HAS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  NARROW AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY 1.00-1.50
INCHES)...DRIER POCKET OF AIR ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN
GREAT LAKES WEATHER THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST AND HELP REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST WHILE
PULLING LOWER HEIGHTS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL SEND
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO MICHIGAN FOR NEXT WEEK...PROBABLY
STARTING LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  INITIAL COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO MICHIGAN SATURDAY BUT
WEAKENING AS IT DOES...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH
THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): INCREASING RAIN THREAT THIS
WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF INITIAL COLD FRONT SATURDAY...AND SHORT WAVE
DYNAMICS SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (SATURDAY/SUNDAY):  SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY START OUT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ALONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE US-131 CORRIDOR.  QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...AND THOUGH CLOUDS MAY HANG ON FOR A
WHILE DO THINK WE`LL SEE ENOUGH THINNING TO GENERATE ON THE ORDER OF
500-1000J/KG MLCAPE AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO WORK ON (ALONG WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE THAT MAY
FORM).  COULD BE A LAKE SHADOW ALONG NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES PROVIDED NOTHING FORMS UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
AND TRIES TO MAKE A RUN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.  BUT WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES ON THE CHANCY SIDE...A LITTLE TOUGH TO GET A GOOD
HANDLE ON SOLID FEATURES TO FOCUS ON.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY QUIET OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EVENING...SOME FOG POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WITH IT
A MORE DEFINED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.  RAINFALL SHOULD BE A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC/
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH (SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH)...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING.  SO PLAN TO CARRY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): COOL/BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHOT OF COOL JULY AIR OVERSPREADS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  WOULD EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF (MOSTLY)
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER MONDAY...LOOKS MOSTLY DRY PROVIDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLEARS LOWER MICHIGAN IN A TIMELY FASHION.
850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD COVER SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.  THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES PRETTY NON-DESCRIPT
SITTING BENEATH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INSTABILITY WITHIN COLD AIR ALOFT ANY SMALL THING MAY GENERATE SOME
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.  LITTLE MORE MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY KICK UP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.  NOT EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER-MID 70S
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OUTLOOK (THURSDAY/FRIDAY):  STILL COOL THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE
MAY HELP GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.  WILL START
FRIDAY OUT DRY...THOUGH THAT IS PRETTY MUCH A TOSS-UP AT THIS
POINT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR EARLY AUGUST
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING INTO
MICHIGAN. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN PRESENT BUT SMALL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AND EVENTUALLY WEST AOB 10 KTS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK INTO THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY PROMOTE
SOME ATTEMPT AT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS NOT REALLY EXPECTED
TO PICK UP UNTIL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FROM THE
NORTH IN ITS WAKE.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY END UP BEING NEEDED
TO START NEXT WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







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