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000
FXUS63 KGRR 050802
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
302 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER WILL RELAX ITS GRIP ON WEST MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
TODAY WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. A WARM UP WILL
START FRIDAY THAT WILL CARRY INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGHS REACH THE MID
40S. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO TRIM POPS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE TODAY.

THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT GREAT...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO
EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO WEST MICHIGAN AND WILL HELP TO
KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A SHSN...BUT NOTHING
ORGANIZED EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE COLD. HIGHS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED
AS H8 TEMPS IN THE LOWER -20S MOVE ACROSS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY. SO ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER...APPARENT TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHSN
EITHER AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. SCT SHSN WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. SATURDAY COULD FEEL DOWNRIGHT
BALMY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A WEAK CLIPPER COMING THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME
SLIPPERY ROADS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. MILDER WEATHER
FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FLOW GOES
ZONAL AND THE POLAR JET RETREATS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TO SOUTHERN
CANADA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT KEEPING THE MAIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OFFSHORE OVER LAKE MI. FOR THAT REASON I
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD LESS SNOW AND CLOUDS. THE CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW









000
FXUS63 KGRR 050802
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
302 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER WILL RELAX ITS GRIP ON WEST MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
TODAY WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. A WARM UP WILL
START FRIDAY THAT WILL CARRY INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGHS REACH THE MID
40S. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO TRIM POPS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE TODAY.

THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT GREAT...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO
EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO WEST MICHIGAN AND WILL HELP TO
KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A SHSN...BUT NOTHING
ORGANIZED EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE COLD. HIGHS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED
AS H8 TEMPS IN THE LOWER -20S MOVE ACROSS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY. SO ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER...APPARENT TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHSN
EITHER AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. SCT SHSN WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. SATURDAY COULD FEEL DOWNRIGHT
BALMY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A WEAK CLIPPER COMING THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME
SLIPPERY ROADS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. MILDER WEATHER
FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FLOW GOES
ZONAL AND THE POLAR JET RETREATS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TO SOUTHERN
CANADA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT KEEPING THE MAIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OFFSHORE OVER LAKE MI. FOR THAT REASON I
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD LESS SNOW AND CLOUDS. THE CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW









  [top]

000
FXUS63 KAPX 050535
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1235 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME MVFR
PERIODS AROUND TVC/MBL POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL



000
FXUS63 KAPX 050535
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1235 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME MVFR
PERIODS AROUND TVC/MBL POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 050535
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1235 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME MVFR
PERIODS AROUND TVC/MBL POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 050535
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1235 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME MVFR
PERIODS AROUND TVC/MBL POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 050535
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1235 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME MVFR
PERIODS AROUND TVC/MBL POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMQT 050528
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1228 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE.
BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS
ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH
OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE
SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED
LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS
FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT
HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW
COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER
SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE
ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME
HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW
THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED
AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO
TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL
SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT.

SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S
BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING
OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT
WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD
EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NW FLOW ACROSS LIMITED GAPS IN LAKE
SUPERIOR ICE COVER HAS STILL PRODUCED SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SCT CLOUDS/FLURRIES INTO THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THAT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH BACKING WINDS OVERNIGHT THAT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BACK
TO SW BY LATE THU...KEEPING ANY CLOUDS OFFSHORE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING
TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM
EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162.
WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT
THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO
START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 050528
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1228 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE.
BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS
ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH
OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE
SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED
LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS
FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT
HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW
COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER
SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE
ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME
HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW
THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED
AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO
TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL
SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT.

SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S
BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING
OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT
WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD
EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NW FLOW ACROSS LIMITED GAPS IN LAKE
SUPERIOR ICE COVER HAS STILL PRODUCED SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SCT CLOUDS/FLURRIES INTO THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THAT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH BACKING WINDS OVERNIGHT THAT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BACK
TO SW BY LATE THU...KEEPING ANY CLOUDS OFFSHORE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING
TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM
EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162.
WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT
THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO
START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 050528
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1228 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE.
BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS
ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH
OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE
SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED
LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS
FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT
HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW
COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER
SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE
ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME
HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW
THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED
AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO
TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL
SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT.

SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S
BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING
OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT
WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD
EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NW FLOW ACROSS LIMITED GAPS IN LAKE
SUPERIOR ICE COVER HAS STILL PRODUCED SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SCT CLOUDS/FLURRIES INTO THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THAT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH BACKING WINDS OVERNIGHT THAT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BACK
TO SW BY LATE THU...KEEPING ANY CLOUDS OFFSHORE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING
TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM
EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162.
WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT
THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO
START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 050528
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1228 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE.
BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS
ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH
OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE
SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED
LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS
FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT
HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW
COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER
SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE
ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME
HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW
THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED
AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO
TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL
SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT.

SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S
BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING
OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT
WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD
EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NW FLOW ACROSS LIMITED GAPS IN LAKE
SUPERIOR ICE COVER HAS STILL PRODUCED SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SCT CLOUDS/FLURRIES INTO THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THAT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH BACKING WINDS OVERNIGHT THAT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BACK
TO SW BY LATE THU...KEEPING ANY CLOUDS OFFSHORE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING
TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM
EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162.
WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT
THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO
START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 050452
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 050452
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 050452
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 050452
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 050452
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 050452
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 050450
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS ON
THURSDAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SWING BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. NEXT WEEK A
WARMING TREND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 40S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT. NO MAJOR SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ASCERTAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WAS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PRODUCE DELTA T/S THAT ARE HIGH OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A SHALLOW DGZ WILL LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO MINOR LEVELS. EXPECT THAT THE BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OF THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ AS
WELL. THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EVEN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH RANGE.

LIFT IS MINIMAL IN THE CLOUD LAYER ON THURSDAY...SO FLURRIES ARE
MAINLY EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES EVEN MORE SHALLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. 5000FT AT BEST TONIGHT FALLING TO 2500FT THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANCE WILL
BE TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LITTLE QUESTION IT WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK. TILL THEN WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY GIVING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE RISK OF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO MONDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN
OVER 3 WEEKS. STARTING TUESDAY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINS.

WHAT IS HAPPENING TO HELP THE CAUSE OF THE WARM UP MAY WELL BE
RELATED TO THE MJO GOING INTO PHASE 5...WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POSSIBLE PHASE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD LAST ABOUT A WEEK
BEFORE IT HEADS INTO PHASE 6 BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WHICH IS ALSO
WARM BUT NOT AS WARM. THAT FORECAST IS BASED ON BOTH THE GFS...
NCFS... ECMWF AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE SEASONAL PREDICTION ENSEMBLES
FOR THE LOCATION OF THE MJO CONVECTIVE WAVE.  ON OUR UPPER AIR
CHARTS WE SEE A LARGE CLOSES UPPER LOW (ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF)
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N AND 152W BY FRIDAY. AS THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IT BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVERTS
THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET BACK INTO CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE NOT DIGGING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THEY WERE OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
MORE ZONAL THAT BRINGS PACIFIC OCEAN ORIGIN AIR INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SO HERE IS THE PROBLEM WITH IT STAYING WARM...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
IS STILL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THAT LARGE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE I WOULD IMAGINE THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL COME BACK. MEANWHILE WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST A WEEK OF
MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THIS PATTERN CHANGE.

THE TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT LARGELY MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING THE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ON BOTH SATURDAY DURING
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL
POLAR JET SPEED MAXIMUMS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEMS FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY TRACK NORTH OF ROUTE 10. IT IS LARGELY FOR
THAT REASON WHY WE WILL NOT GET MUCH SNOW FROM EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEM... WE DO NOT GET INTO THE DEEP COLD AIR. WHICH IN TURN MEANS
THE BOTH SYSTEMS LACK DEEP MOISTURE.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL FEEL MORE SPRING LIKE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT KEEPING THE MAIN SNOW SHOWER ACIVITY AND
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OFFSHORE OVER LAKE MI. FOR THAT REASON I
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD LESS SNOW AND CLOUDS. THE CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 050450
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS ON
THURSDAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SWING BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. NEXT WEEK A
WARMING TREND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 40S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT. NO MAJOR SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ASCERTAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WAS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PRODUCE DELTA T/S THAT ARE HIGH OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A SHALLOW DGZ WILL LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO MINOR LEVELS. EXPECT THAT THE BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OF THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ AS
WELL. THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EVEN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH RANGE.

LIFT IS MINIMAL IN THE CLOUD LAYER ON THURSDAY...SO FLURRIES ARE
MAINLY EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES EVEN MORE SHALLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. 5000FT AT BEST TONIGHT FALLING TO 2500FT THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANCE WILL
BE TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LITTLE QUESTION IT WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK. TILL THEN WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY GIVING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE RISK OF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO MONDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN
OVER 3 WEEKS. STARTING TUESDAY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINS.

WHAT IS HAPPENING TO HELP THE CAUSE OF THE WARM UP MAY WELL BE
RELATED TO THE MJO GOING INTO PHASE 5...WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POSSIBLE PHASE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD LAST ABOUT A WEEK
BEFORE IT HEADS INTO PHASE 6 BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WHICH IS ALSO
WARM BUT NOT AS WARM. THAT FORECAST IS BASED ON BOTH THE GFS...
NCFS... ECMWF AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE SEASONAL PREDICTION ENSEMBLES
FOR THE LOCATION OF THE MJO CONVECTIVE WAVE.  ON OUR UPPER AIR
CHARTS WE SEE A LARGE CLOSES UPPER LOW (ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF)
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N AND 152W BY FRIDAY. AS THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IT BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVERTS
THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET BACK INTO CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE NOT DIGGING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THEY WERE OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
MORE ZONAL THAT BRINGS PACIFIC OCEAN ORIGIN AIR INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SO HERE IS THE PROBLEM WITH IT STAYING WARM...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
IS STILL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THAT LARGE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE I WOULD IMAGINE THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL COME BACK. MEANWHILE WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST A WEEK OF
MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THIS PATTERN CHANGE.

THE TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT LARGELY MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING THE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ON BOTH SATURDAY DURING
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL
POLAR JET SPEED MAXIMUMS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEMS FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY TRACK NORTH OF ROUTE 10. IT IS LARGELY FOR
THAT REASON WHY WE WILL NOT GET MUCH SNOW FROM EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEM... WE DO NOT GET INTO THE DEEP COLD AIR. WHICH IN TURN MEANS
THE BOTH SYSTEMS LACK DEEP MOISTURE.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL FEEL MORE SPRING LIKE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT KEEPING THE MAIN SNOW SHOWER ACIVITY AND
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OFFSHORE OVER LAKE MI. FOR THAT REASON I
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD LESS SNOW AND CLOUDS. THE CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW






000
FXUS63 KAPX 050205 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
905 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 050205 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
905 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS63 KMQT 042352
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
652 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE.
BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS
ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH
OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE
SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED
LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS
FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT
HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW
COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER
SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE
ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME
HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW
THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED
AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO
TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL
SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT.

SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S
BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING
OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT
WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD
EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT IWD...AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS
EVENING...EXPECT VSBY TO LOWER...MAINLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMRPROVE BY THU MORNING AS THE LES DIMINISHING WITH
BACKING WINDS AND DROPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

AT CMX...WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE
LIFTED VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING.

FINALLY AT SAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW
SHOWER SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT
PROB LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING
TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM
EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162.
WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT
THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO
START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 042352
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
652 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE.
BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS
ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH
OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE
SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED
LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS
FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT
HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW
COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER
SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE
ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME
HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW
THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED
AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO
TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL
SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT.

SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S
BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING
OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT
WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD
EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT IWD...AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS
EVENING...EXPECT VSBY TO LOWER...MAINLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMRPROVE BY THU MORNING AS THE LES DIMINISHING WITH
BACKING WINDS AND DROPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

AT CMX...WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE
LIFTED VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING.

FINALLY AT SAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW
SHOWER SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT
PROB LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING
TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM
EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162.
WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT
THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO
START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 042352
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
652 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE.
BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS
ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH
OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE
SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED
LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS
FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT
HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW
COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER
SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE
ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME
HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW
THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED
AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO
TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL
SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT.

SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S
BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING
OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT
WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD
EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT IWD...AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS
EVENING...EXPECT VSBY TO LOWER...MAINLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMRPROVE BY THU MORNING AS THE LES DIMINISHING WITH
BACKING WINDS AND DROPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

AT CMX...WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE
LIFTED VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING.

FINALLY AT SAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW
SHOWER SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT
PROB LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING
TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM
EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162.
WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT
THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO
START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 042352
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
652 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE.
BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS
ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH
OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE
SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED
LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS
FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT
HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW
COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER
SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE
ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME
HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW
THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED
AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO
TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL
SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT.

SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S
BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING
OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT
WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD
EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT IWD...AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS
EVENING...EXPECT VSBY TO LOWER...MAINLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMRPROVE BY THU MORNING AS THE LES DIMINISHING WITH
BACKING WINDS AND DROPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS.

AT CMX...WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE
LIFTED VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING.

FINALLY AT SAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW
SHOWER SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT
PROB LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING
TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM
EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162.
WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT
THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO
START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF



000
FXUS63 KDTX 042318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG AT TIMES THIS
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 042318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG AT TIMES THIS
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 042318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG AT TIMES THIS
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 042318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG AT TIMES THIS
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 042318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG AT TIMES THIS
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 042318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG AT TIMES THIS
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 042317 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS63 KAPX 042317 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 042317 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS63 KAPX 042317 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KGRR 042311
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
611 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS ON
THURSDAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SWING BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. NEXT WEEK A
WARMING TREND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 40S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT. NO MAJOR SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ASCERTAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WAS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PRODUCE DELTA T/S THAT ARE HIGH OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A SHALLOW DGZ WILL LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO MINOR LEVELS. EXPECT THAT THE BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OF THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ AS
WELL. THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EVEN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH RANGE.

LIFT IS MINIMAL IN THE CLOUD LAYER ON THURSDAY...SO FLURRIES ARE
MAINLY EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES EVEN MORE SHALLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. 5000FT AT BEST TONIGHT FALLING TO 2500FT THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANCE WILL
BE TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LITTLE QUESTION IT WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK. TILL THEN WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY GIVING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE RISK OF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO MONDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN
OVER 3 WEEKS. STARTING TUESDAY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINS.

WHAT IS HAPPENING TO HELP THE CAUSE OF THE WARM UP MAY WELL BE
RELATED TO THE MJO GOING INTO PHASE 5...WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POSSIBLE PHASE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD LAST ABOUT A WEEK
BEFORE IT HEADS INTO PHASE 6 BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WHICH IS ALSO
WARM BUT NOT AS WARM. THAT FORECAST IS BASED ON BOTH THE GFS...
NCFS... ECMWF AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE SEASONAL PREDICTION ENSEMBLES
FOR THE LOCATION OF THE MJO CONVECTIVE WAVE.  ON OUR UPPER AIR
CHARTS WE SEE A LARGE CLOSES UPPER LOW (ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF)
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N AND 152W BY FRIDAY. AS THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IT BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVERTS
THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET BACK INTO CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE NOT DIGGING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THEY WERE OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
MORE ZONAL THAT BRINGS PACIFIC OCEAN ORIGIN AIR INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SO HERE IS THE PROBLEM WITH IT STAYING WARM...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
IS STILL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THAT LARGE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE I WOULD IMAGINE THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL COME BACK. MEANWHILE WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST A WEEK OF
MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THIS PATTERN CHANGE.

THE TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT LARGELY MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING THE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ON BOTH SATURDAY DURING
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL
POLAR JET SPEED MAXIMUMS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEMS FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY TRACK NORTH OF ROUTE 10. IT IS LARGELY FOR
THAT REASON WHY WE WILL NOT GET MUCH SNOW FROM EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEM... WE DO NOT GET INTO THE DEEP COLD AIR. WHICH IN TURN MEANS
THE BOTH SYSTEMS LACK DEEP MOISTURE.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL FEEL MORE SPRING LIKE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

OVERALL VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN. A BAND OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT. KMKG WILL BE CLOSEST TO THIS BAND SO I KEPT POSSIBLE
IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST. SINKING MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT THE CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT AS WELL
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 042311
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
611 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS ON
THURSDAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SWING BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. NEXT WEEK A
WARMING TREND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 40S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT. NO MAJOR SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ASCERTAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WAS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PRODUCE DELTA T/S THAT ARE HIGH OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A SHALLOW DGZ WILL LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO MINOR LEVELS. EXPECT THAT THE BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OF THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ AS
WELL. THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EVEN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH RANGE.

LIFT IS MINIMAL IN THE CLOUD LAYER ON THURSDAY...SO FLURRIES ARE
MAINLY EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES EVEN MORE SHALLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. 5000FT AT BEST TONIGHT FALLING TO 2500FT THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANCE WILL
BE TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LITTLE QUESTION IT WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK. TILL THEN WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY GIVING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE RISK OF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO MONDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN
OVER 3 WEEKS. STARTING TUESDAY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINS.

WHAT IS HAPPENING TO HELP THE CAUSE OF THE WARM UP MAY WELL BE
RELATED TO THE MJO GOING INTO PHASE 5...WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POSSIBLE PHASE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD LAST ABOUT A WEEK
BEFORE IT HEADS INTO PHASE 6 BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WHICH IS ALSO
WARM BUT NOT AS WARM. THAT FORECAST IS BASED ON BOTH THE GFS...
NCFS... ECMWF AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE SEASONAL PREDICTION ENSEMBLES
FOR THE LOCATION OF THE MJO CONVECTIVE WAVE.  ON OUR UPPER AIR
CHARTS WE SEE A LARGE CLOSES UPPER LOW (ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF)
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N AND 152W BY FRIDAY. AS THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IT BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVERTS
THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET BACK INTO CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE NOT DIGGING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THEY WERE OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
MORE ZONAL THAT BRINGS PACIFIC OCEAN ORIGIN AIR INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SO HERE IS THE PROBLEM WITH IT STAYING WARM...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
IS STILL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THAT LARGE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE I WOULD IMAGINE THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL COME BACK. MEANWHILE WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST A WEEK OF
MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THIS PATTERN CHANGE.

THE TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT LARGELY MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING THE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ON BOTH SATURDAY DURING
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL
POLAR JET SPEED MAXIMUMS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEMS FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY TRACK NORTH OF ROUTE 10. IT IS LARGELY FOR
THAT REASON WHY WE WILL NOT GET MUCH SNOW FROM EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEM... WE DO NOT GET INTO THE DEEP COLD AIR. WHICH IN TURN MEANS
THE BOTH SYSTEMS LACK DEEP MOISTURE.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL FEEL MORE SPRING LIKE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

OVERALL VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN. A BAND OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT. KMKG WILL BE CLOSEST TO THIS BAND SO I KEPT POSSIBLE
IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST. SINKING MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT THE CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT AS WELL
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 042311
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
611 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS ON
THURSDAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SWING BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. NEXT WEEK A
WARMING TREND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 40S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT. NO MAJOR SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ASCERTAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WAS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PRODUCE DELTA T/S THAT ARE HIGH OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A SHALLOW DGZ WILL LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO MINOR LEVELS. EXPECT THAT THE BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OF THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ AS
WELL. THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EVEN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH RANGE.

LIFT IS MINIMAL IN THE CLOUD LAYER ON THURSDAY...SO FLURRIES ARE
MAINLY EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES EVEN MORE SHALLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. 5000FT AT BEST TONIGHT FALLING TO 2500FT THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANCE WILL
BE TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LITTLE QUESTION IT WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK. TILL THEN WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY GIVING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE RISK OF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO MONDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN
OVER 3 WEEKS. STARTING TUESDAY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINS.

WHAT IS HAPPENING TO HELP THE CAUSE OF THE WARM UP MAY WELL BE
RELATED TO THE MJO GOING INTO PHASE 5...WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POSSIBLE PHASE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD LAST ABOUT A WEEK
BEFORE IT HEADS INTO PHASE 6 BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WHICH IS ALSO
WARM BUT NOT AS WARM. THAT FORECAST IS BASED ON BOTH THE GFS...
NCFS... ECMWF AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE SEASONAL PREDICTION ENSEMBLES
FOR THE LOCATION OF THE MJO CONVECTIVE WAVE.  ON OUR UPPER AIR
CHARTS WE SEE A LARGE CLOSES UPPER LOW (ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF)
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N AND 152W BY FRIDAY. AS THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IT BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVERTS
THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET BACK INTO CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE NOT DIGGING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THEY WERE OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
MORE ZONAL THAT BRINGS PACIFIC OCEAN ORIGIN AIR INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SO HERE IS THE PROBLEM WITH IT STAYING WARM...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
IS STILL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THAT LARGE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE I WOULD IMAGINE THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL COME BACK. MEANWHILE WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST A WEEK OF
MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THIS PATTERN CHANGE.

THE TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT LARGELY MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING THE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ON BOTH SATURDAY DURING
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL
POLAR JET SPEED MAXIMUMS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEMS FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY TRACK NORTH OF ROUTE 10. IT IS LARGELY FOR
THAT REASON WHY WE WILL NOT GET MUCH SNOW FROM EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEM... WE DO NOT GET INTO THE DEEP COLD AIR. WHICH IN TURN MEANS
THE BOTH SYSTEMS LACK DEEP MOISTURE.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL FEEL MORE SPRING LIKE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

OVERALL VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN. A BAND OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT. KMKG WILL BE CLOSEST TO THIS BAND SO I KEPT POSSIBLE
IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST. SINKING MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT THE CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT AS WELL
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 042311
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
611 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS ON
THURSDAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SWING BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. NEXT WEEK A
WARMING TREND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 40S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT. NO MAJOR SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ASCERTAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WAS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PRODUCE DELTA T/S THAT ARE HIGH OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A SHALLOW DGZ WILL LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO MINOR LEVELS. EXPECT THAT THE BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OF THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ AS
WELL. THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EVEN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH RANGE.

LIFT IS MINIMAL IN THE CLOUD LAYER ON THURSDAY...SO FLURRIES ARE
MAINLY EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES EVEN MORE SHALLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. 5000FT AT BEST TONIGHT FALLING TO 2500FT THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANCE WILL
BE TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LITTLE QUESTION IT WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK. TILL THEN WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY GIVING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE RISK OF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO MONDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN
OVER 3 WEEKS. STARTING TUESDAY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINS.

WHAT IS HAPPENING TO HELP THE CAUSE OF THE WARM UP MAY WELL BE
RELATED TO THE MJO GOING INTO PHASE 5...WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POSSIBLE PHASE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD LAST ABOUT A WEEK
BEFORE IT HEADS INTO PHASE 6 BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WHICH IS ALSO
WARM BUT NOT AS WARM. THAT FORECAST IS BASED ON BOTH THE GFS...
NCFS... ECMWF AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE SEASONAL PREDICTION ENSEMBLES
FOR THE LOCATION OF THE MJO CONVECTIVE WAVE.  ON OUR UPPER AIR
CHARTS WE SEE A LARGE CLOSES UPPER LOW (ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF)
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N AND 152W BY FRIDAY. AS THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IT BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVERTS
THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET BACK INTO CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE NOT DIGGING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THEY WERE OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
MORE ZONAL THAT BRINGS PACIFIC OCEAN ORIGIN AIR INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SO HERE IS THE PROBLEM WITH IT STAYING WARM...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
IS STILL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THAT LARGE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE I WOULD IMAGINE THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL COME BACK. MEANWHILE WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST A WEEK OF
MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THIS PATTERN CHANGE.

THE TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT LARGELY MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING THE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ON BOTH SATURDAY DURING
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL
POLAR JET SPEED MAXIMUMS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEMS FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY TRACK NORTH OF ROUTE 10. IT IS LARGELY FOR
THAT REASON WHY WE WILL NOT GET MUCH SNOW FROM EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEM... WE DO NOT GET INTO THE DEEP COLD AIR. WHICH IN TURN MEANS
THE BOTH SYSTEMS LACK DEEP MOISTURE.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL FEEL MORE SPRING LIKE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

OVERALL VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN. A BAND OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT. KMKG WILL BE CLOSEST TO THIS BAND SO I KEPT POSSIBLE
IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST. SINKING MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT THE CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT AS WELL
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW







000
FXUS63 KAPX 042118
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR. SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z) FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES. BUT MBL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME WNW GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM



000
FXUS63 KDTX 042057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR LIMITATIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 025 TO 035 HUNDRED FEET. THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING HAS HELPED LIFT MOST SPOTS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THOUGH.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE TEENS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
AVIATION.....MM


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 042057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR LIMITATIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 025 TO 035 HUNDRED FEET. THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING HAS HELPED LIFT MOST SPOTS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THOUGH.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE TEENS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
AVIATION.....MM


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 042057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR LIMITATIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 025 TO 035 HUNDRED FEET. THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING HAS HELPED LIFT MOST SPOTS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THOUGH.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE TEENS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
AVIATION.....MM


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 042057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR LIMITATIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 025 TO 035 HUNDRED FEET. THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING HAS HELPED LIFT MOST SPOTS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THOUGH.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE TEENS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
AVIATION.....MM


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 042030
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS ON
THURSDAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SWING BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. NEXT WEEK A
WARMING TREND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 40S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT. NO MAJOR SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ASCERTAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WAS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PRODUCE DELTA T/S THAT ARE HIGH OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A SHALLOW DGZ WILL LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO MINOR LEVELS. EXPECT THAT THE BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OF THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ AS
WELL. THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EVEN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH RANGE.

LIFT IS MINIMAL IN THE CLOUD LAYER ON THURSDAY...SO FLURRIES ARE
MAINLY EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES EVEN MORE SHALLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. 5000FT AT BEST TONIGHT FALLING TO 2500FT THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANCE WILL
BE TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LITTLE QUESTION IT WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK. TILL THEN WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY GIVING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE RISK OF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO MONDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN
OVER 3 WEEKS. STARTING TUESDAY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINS.

WHAT IS HAPPENING TO HELP THE CAUSE OF THE WARM UP MAY WELL BE
RELATED TO THE MJO GOING INTO PHASE 5...WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POSSIBLE PHASE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD LAST ABOUT A WEEK
BEFORE IT HEADS INTO PHASE 6 BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WHICH IS ALSO
WARM BUT NOT AS WARM. THAT FORECAST IS BASED ON BOTH THE GFS...
NCFS... ECMWF AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE SEASONAL PREDICTION ENSEMBLES
FOR THE LOCATION OF THE MJO CONVECTIVE WAVE.  ON OUR UPPER AIR
CHARTS WE SEE A LARGE CLOSES UPPER LOW (ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF)
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N AND 152W BY FRIDAY. AS THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IT BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVERTS
THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET BACK INTO CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE NOT DIGGING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THEY WERE OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
MORE ZONAL THAT BRINGS PACIFIC OCEAN ORIGIN AIR INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SO HERE IS THE PROBLEM WITH IT STAYING WARM...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
IS STILL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THAT LARGE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE I WOULD IMAGINE THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL COME BACK. MEANWHILE WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST A WEEK OF
MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THIS PATTERN CHANGE.

THE TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT LARGELY MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING THE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ON BOTH SATURDAY DURING
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL
POLAR JET SPEED MAXIMUMS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEMS FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY TRACK NORTH OF ROUTE 10. IT IS LARGELY FOR
THAT REASON WHY WE WILL NOT GET MUCH SNOW FROM EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEM... WE DO NOT GET INTO THE DEEP COLD AIR. WHICH IN TURN MEANS
THE BOTH SYSTEMS LACK DEEP MOISTURE.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL FEEL MORE SPRING LIKE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN I EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...STILL INLAND TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING... ALL AREAS COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS... MOSTLY MVFR THEN. AFTER THAT COMES THROUGH
INLAND SITES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT MKG. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY SO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND SOME...BUT STILL
DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUDS (TOPS UNDER 5000 FT) LIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE THOSE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW










000
FXUS63 KGRR 042030
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS ON
THURSDAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SWING BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. NEXT WEEK A
WARMING TREND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 40S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT. NO MAJOR SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ASCERTAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WAS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PRODUCE DELTA T/S THAT ARE HIGH OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A SHALLOW DGZ WILL LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO MINOR LEVELS. EXPECT THAT THE BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OF THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ AS
WELL. THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EVEN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH RANGE.

LIFT IS MINIMAL IN THE CLOUD LAYER ON THURSDAY...SO FLURRIES ARE
MAINLY EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES EVEN MORE SHALLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. 5000FT AT BEST TONIGHT FALLING TO 2500FT THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANCE WILL
BE TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LITTLE QUESTION IT WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK. TILL THEN WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY GIVING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE RISK OF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO MONDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN
OVER 3 WEEKS. STARTING TUESDAY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINS.

WHAT IS HAPPENING TO HELP THE CAUSE OF THE WARM UP MAY WELL BE
RELATED TO THE MJO GOING INTO PHASE 5...WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POSSIBLE PHASE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD LAST ABOUT A WEEK
BEFORE IT HEADS INTO PHASE 6 BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WHICH IS ALSO
WARM BUT NOT AS WARM. THAT FORECAST IS BASED ON BOTH THE GFS...
NCFS... ECMWF AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE SEASONAL PREDICTION ENSEMBLES
FOR THE LOCATION OF THE MJO CONVECTIVE WAVE.  ON OUR UPPER AIR
CHARTS WE SEE A LARGE CLOSES UPPER LOW (ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF)
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N AND 152W BY FRIDAY. AS THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IT BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVERTS
THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET BACK INTO CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE NOT DIGGING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THEY WERE OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
MORE ZONAL THAT BRINGS PACIFIC OCEAN ORIGIN AIR INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SO HERE IS THE PROBLEM WITH IT STAYING WARM...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
IS STILL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THAT LARGE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE I WOULD IMAGINE THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL COME BACK. MEANWHILE WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST A WEEK OF
MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THIS PATTERN CHANGE.

THE TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT LARGELY MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING THE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ON BOTH SATURDAY DURING
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL
POLAR JET SPEED MAXIMUMS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEMS FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY TRACK NORTH OF ROUTE 10. IT IS LARGELY FOR
THAT REASON WHY WE WILL NOT GET MUCH SNOW FROM EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEM... WE DO NOT GET INTO THE DEEP COLD AIR. WHICH IN TURN MEANS
THE BOTH SYSTEMS LACK DEEP MOISTURE.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL FEEL MORE SPRING LIKE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN I EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...STILL INLAND TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING... ALL AREAS COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS... MOSTLY MVFR THEN. AFTER THAT COMES THROUGH
INLAND SITES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT MKG. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY SO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND SOME...BUT STILL
DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUDS (TOPS UNDER 5000 FT) LIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE THOSE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW









000
FXUS63 KGRR 042030
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS ON
THURSDAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SWING BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. NEXT WEEK A
WARMING TREND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 40S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT. NO MAJOR SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ASCERTAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WAS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PRODUCE DELTA T/S THAT ARE HIGH OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A SHALLOW DGZ WILL LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO MINOR LEVELS. EXPECT THAT THE BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OF THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ AS
WELL. THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EVEN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH RANGE.

LIFT IS MINIMAL IN THE CLOUD LAYER ON THURSDAY...SO FLURRIES ARE
MAINLY EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES EVEN MORE SHALLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. 5000FT AT BEST TONIGHT FALLING TO 2500FT THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANCE WILL
BE TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LITTLE QUESTION IT WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK. TILL THEN WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY GIVING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE RISK OF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO MONDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN
OVER 3 WEEKS. STARTING TUESDAY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINS.

WHAT IS HAPPENING TO HELP THE CAUSE OF THE WARM UP MAY WELL BE
RELATED TO THE MJO GOING INTO PHASE 5...WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POSSIBLE PHASE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD LAST ABOUT A WEEK
BEFORE IT HEADS INTO PHASE 6 BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WHICH IS ALSO
WARM BUT NOT AS WARM. THAT FORECAST IS BASED ON BOTH THE GFS...
NCFS... ECMWF AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE SEASONAL PREDICTION ENSEMBLES
FOR THE LOCATION OF THE MJO CONVECTIVE WAVE.  ON OUR UPPER AIR
CHARTS WE SEE A LARGE CLOSES UPPER LOW (ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF)
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N AND 152W BY FRIDAY. AS THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IT BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVERTS
THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET BACK INTO CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE NOT DIGGING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THEY WERE OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
MORE ZONAL THAT BRINGS PACIFIC OCEAN ORIGIN AIR INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SO HERE IS THE PROBLEM WITH IT STAYING WARM...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
IS STILL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THAT LARGE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE I WOULD IMAGINE THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL COME BACK. MEANWHILE WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST A WEEK OF
MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THIS PATTERN CHANGE.

THE TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT LARGELY MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING THE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ON BOTH SATURDAY DURING
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL
POLAR JET SPEED MAXIMUMS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEMS FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY TRACK NORTH OF ROUTE 10. IT IS LARGELY FOR
THAT REASON WHY WE WILL NOT GET MUCH SNOW FROM EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEM... WE DO NOT GET INTO THE DEEP COLD AIR. WHICH IN TURN MEANS
THE BOTH SYSTEMS LACK DEEP MOISTURE.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL FEEL MORE SPRING LIKE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN I EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...STILL INLAND TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING... ALL AREAS COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS... MOSTLY MVFR THEN. AFTER THAT COMES THROUGH
INLAND SITES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT MKG. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY SO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND SOME...BUT STILL
DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUDS (TOPS UNDER 5000 FT) LIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE THOSE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW









000
FXUS63 KGRR 042030
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS ON
THURSDAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SWING BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. NEXT WEEK A
WARMING TREND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 40S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT. NO MAJOR SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ASCERTAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WAS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PRODUCE DELTA T/S THAT ARE HIGH OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A SHALLOW DGZ WILL LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO MINOR LEVELS. EXPECT THAT THE BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OF THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ AS
WELL. THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EVEN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH RANGE.

LIFT IS MINIMAL IN THE CLOUD LAYER ON THURSDAY...SO FLURRIES ARE
MAINLY EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES EVEN MORE SHALLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. 5000FT AT BEST TONIGHT FALLING TO 2500FT THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANCE WILL
BE TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LITTLE QUESTION IT WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK. TILL THEN WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY GIVING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE RISK OF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO MONDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN
OVER 3 WEEKS. STARTING TUESDAY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINS.

WHAT IS HAPPENING TO HELP THE CAUSE OF THE WARM UP MAY WELL BE
RELATED TO THE MJO GOING INTO PHASE 5...WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POSSIBLE PHASE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD LAST ABOUT A WEEK
BEFORE IT HEADS INTO PHASE 6 BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WHICH IS ALSO
WARM BUT NOT AS WARM. THAT FORECAST IS BASED ON BOTH THE GFS...
NCFS... ECMWF AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE SEASONAL PREDICTION ENSEMBLES
FOR THE LOCATION OF THE MJO CONVECTIVE WAVE.  ON OUR UPPER AIR
CHARTS WE SEE A LARGE CLOSES UPPER LOW (ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF)
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N AND 152W BY FRIDAY. AS THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IT BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVERTS
THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET BACK INTO CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE NOT DIGGING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THEY WERE OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
MORE ZONAL THAT BRINGS PACIFIC OCEAN ORIGIN AIR INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SO HERE IS THE PROBLEM WITH IT STAYING WARM...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
IS STILL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THAT LARGE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE I WOULD IMAGINE THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL COME BACK. MEANWHILE WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST A WEEK OF
MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THIS PATTERN CHANGE.

THE TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT LARGELY MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING THE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ON BOTH SATURDAY DURING
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL
POLAR JET SPEED MAXIMUMS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEMS FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY TRACK NORTH OF ROUTE 10. IT IS LARGELY FOR
THAT REASON WHY WE WILL NOT GET MUCH SNOW FROM EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEM... WE DO NOT GET INTO THE DEEP COLD AIR. WHICH IN TURN MEANS
THE BOTH SYSTEMS LACK DEEP MOISTURE.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL FEEL MORE SPRING LIKE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN I EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...STILL INLAND TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING... ALL AREAS COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS... MOSTLY MVFR THEN. AFTER THAT COMES THROUGH
INLAND SITES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT MKG. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY SO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND SOME...BUT STILL
DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUDS (TOPS UNDER 5000 FT) LIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE THOSE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW










000
FXUS63 KMQT 042008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE.
BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS
ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH
OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE
SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED
LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS
FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT
HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW
COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER
SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE
ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME
HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW
THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED
AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO
TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL
SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT.

SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S
BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING
OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT
WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD
EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING
TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM
EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162.
WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT
THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO
START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 042008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE.
BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS
ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH
OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE
SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED
LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS
FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT
HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW
COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER
SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE
ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME
HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW
THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED
AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO
TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL
SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT.

SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S
BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING
OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT
WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD
EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING
TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM
EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162.
WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT
THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO
START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041954
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041954
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 041747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 041747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR. SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z) FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES. BUT MBL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME WNW GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM



000
FXUS63 KAPX 041743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR. SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z) FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES. BUT MBL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME WNW GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR. SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z) FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES. BUT MBL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME WNW GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR. SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z) FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES. BUT MBL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME WNW GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM



000
FXUS63 KGRR 041718
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE DEPTH ALTHOUGH SHALLOW
INCREASES FROM ABOUT 3000FT TO AROUND 5000FT THIS EVENING. SOME
LIFT WILL BE ADDED TO THE EQUATION FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS
PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM MN/WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE IN THE DECLINE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
THE TEENS HAVE MADE IT TO LUDINGTON ON NORTHWEST WINDS. TEENS
SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE IN ALL AREAS BY 700 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN I EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...STILL INLAND TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING... ALL AREAS COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS... MOSTLY MVFR THEN. AFTER THAT COMES THROUGH
INLAND SITES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT MKG. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY SO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND SOME...BUT STILL
DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUDS (TOPS UNDER 5000 FT) LIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE THOSE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1920)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 041718
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE DEPTH ALTHOUGH SHALLOW
INCREASES FROM ABOUT 3000FT TO AROUND 5000FT THIS EVENING. SOME
LIFT WILL BE ADDED TO THE EQUATION FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS
PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM MN/WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE IN THE DECLINE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
THE TEENS HAVE MADE IT TO LUDINGTON ON NORTHWEST WINDS. TEENS
SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE IN ALL AREAS BY 700 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN I EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...STILL INLAND TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING... ALL AREAS COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS... MOSTLY MVFR THEN. AFTER THAT COMES THROUGH
INLAND SITES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT MKG. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY SO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND SOME...BUT STILL
DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUDS (TOPS UNDER 5000 FT) LIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE THOSE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1920)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 041718
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE DEPTH ALTHOUGH SHALLOW
INCREASES FROM ABOUT 3000FT TO AROUND 5000FT THIS EVENING. SOME
LIFT WILL BE ADDED TO THE EQUATION FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS
PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM MN/WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE IN THE DECLINE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
THE TEENS HAVE MADE IT TO LUDINGTON ON NORTHWEST WINDS. TEENS
SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE IN ALL AREAS BY 700 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN I EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...STILL INLAND TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING... ALL AREAS COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS... MOSTLY MVFR THEN. AFTER THAT COMES THROUGH
INLAND SITES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT MKG. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY SO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND SOME...BUT STILL
DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUDS (TOPS UNDER 5000 FT) LIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE THOSE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1920)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 041718
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE DEPTH ALTHOUGH SHALLOW
INCREASES FROM ABOUT 3000FT TO AROUND 5000FT THIS EVENING. SOME
LIFT WILL BE ADDED TO THE EQUATION FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS
PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM MN/WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE IN THE DECLINE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
THE TEENS HAVE MADE IT TO LUDINGTON ON NORTHWEST WINDS. TEENS
SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE IN ALL AREAS BY 700 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN I EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...STILL INLAND TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING... ALL AREAS COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS... MOSTLY MVFR THEN. AFTER THAT COMES THROUGH
INLAND SITES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT MKG. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY SO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND SOME...BUT STILL
DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUDS (TOPS UNDER 5000 FT) LIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE THOSE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1920)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 041710
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE DEPTH ALTHOUGH SHALLOW
INCREASES FROM ABOUT 3000FT TO AROUND 5000FT THIS EVENING. SOME
LIFT WILL BE ADDED TO THE EQUATION FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS
PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM MN/WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE IN THE DECLINE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
THE TEENS HAVE MADE IT TO LUDINGTON ON NORTHWEST WINDS. TEENS
SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE IN ALL AREAS BY 700 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN CIGS
AROUND 3500 FT AND A FEW FLURRIES. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT WERE STILL PRESENT EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY 15Z.

NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY... DIMINISHING TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1920)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 041710
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE DEPTH ALTHOUGH SHALLOW
INCREASES FROM ABOUT 3000FT TO AROUND 5000FT THIS EVENING. SOME
LIFT WILL BE ADDED TO THE EQUATION FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS
PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM MN/WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE IN THE DECLINE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
THE TEENS HAVE MADE IT TO LUDINGTON ON NORTHWEST WINDS. TEENS
SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE IN ALL AREAS BY 700 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN CIGS
AROUND 3500 FT AND A FEW FLURRIES. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT WERE STILL PRESENT EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY 15Z.

NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY... DIMINISHING TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1920)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 041710
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE DEPTH ALTHOUGH SHALLOW
INCREASES FROM ABOUT 3000FT TO AROUND 5000FT THIS EVENING. SOME
LIFT WILL BE ADDED TO THE EQUATION FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS
PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM MN/WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE IN THE DECLINE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
THE TEENS HAVE MADE IT TO LUDINGTON ON NORTHWEST WINDS. TEENS
SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE IN ALL AREAS BY 700 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN CIGS
AROUND 3500 FT AND A FEW FLURRIES. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT WERE STILL PRESENT EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY 15Z.

NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY... DIMINISHING TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1920)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 041710
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE DEPTH ALTHOUGH SHALLOW
INCREASES FROM ABOUT 3000FT TO AROUND 5000FT THIS EVENING. SOME
LIFT WILL BE ADDED TO THE EQUATION FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS
PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM MN/WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE IN THE DECLINE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
THE TEENS HAVE MADE IT TO LUDINGTON ON NORTHWEST WINDS. TEENS
SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE IN ALL AREAS BY 700 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN CIGS
AROUND 3500 FT AND A FEW FLURRIES. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT WERE STILL PRESENT EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY 15Z.

NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY... DIMINISHING TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1920)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 041710
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE DEPTH ALTHOUGH SHALLOW
INCREASES FROM ABOUT 3000FT TO AROUND 5000FT THIS EVENING. SOME
LIFT WILL BE ADDED TO THE EQUATION FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS
PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM MN/WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE IN THE DECLINE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
THE TEENS HAVE MADE IT TO LUDINGTON ON NORTHWEST WINDS. TEENS
SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE IN ALL AREAS BY 700 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN CIGS
AROUND 3500 FT AND A FEW FLURRIES. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT WERE STILL PRESENT EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY 15Z.

NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY... DIMINISHING TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1920)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 041710
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE DEPTH ALTHOUGH SHALLOW
INCREASES FROM ABOUT 3000FT TO AROUND 5000FT THIS EVENING. SOME
LIFT WILL BE ADDED TO THE EQUATION FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS
PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM MN/WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE IN THE DECLINE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
THE TEENS HAVE MADE IT TO LUDINGTON ON NORTHWEST WINDS. TEENS
SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE IN ALL AREAS BY 700 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN CIGS
AROUND 3500 FT AND A FEW FLURRIES. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT WERE STILL PRESENT EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY 15Z.

NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY... DIMINISHING TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1920)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KDTX 041707
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR LIMITATIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 025 TO 035 HUNDRED FEET. THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING HAS HELPED LIFT MOST SPOTS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THOUGH.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE TEENS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MM
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 041707
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR LIMITATIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 025 TO 035 HUNDRED FEET. THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING HAS HELPED LIFT MOST SPOTS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THOUGH.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE TEENS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MM
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 041707
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR LIMITATIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 025 TO 035 HUNDRED FEET. THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING HAS HELPED LIFT MOST SPOTS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THOUGH.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE TEENS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MM
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 041707
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR LIMITATIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 025 TO 035 HUNDRED FEET. THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING HAS HELPED LIFT MOST SPOTS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THOUGH.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE TEENS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MM
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041551
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1051 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KAPX 041551
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1051 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KAPX 041551
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1051 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KAPX 041551
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1051 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KGRR 041216 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
716 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN CIGS
AROUND 3500 FT AND A FEW FLURRIES. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT WERE STILL PRESENT EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY 15Z.

NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY... DIMINISHING TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1920)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW









000
FXUS63 KGRR 041203
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN CIGS
AROUND 3500 FT AND A FEW FLURRIES. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT WERE STILL PRESENT EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY 15Z.

NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY... DIMINISHING TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1948)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 041203
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN CIGS
AROUND 3500 FT AND A FEW FLURRIES. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT WERE STILL PRESENT EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY 15Z.

NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY... DIMINISHING TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1948)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 041203
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN CIGS
AROUND 3500 FT AND A FEW FLURRIES. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT WERE STILL PRESENT EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY 15Z.

NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY... DIMINISHING TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1948)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 041203
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN CIGS
AROUND 3500 FT AND A FEW FLURRIES. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT WERE STILL PRESENT EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY 15Z.

NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY... DIMINISHING TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1948)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KDTX 041153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...EXPECT PERHAPS MBS/FNT WHERE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EARLIER
IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH...CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO 3500 FEET OR SO AND TREND TOWARDS BKN AS THIS FRONT CLIPS
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF DRIER...COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR DTW...MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT DURING THE MORNING

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 20Z OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 041153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...EXPECT PERHAPS MBS/FNT WHERE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EARLIER
IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH...CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO 3500 FEET OR SO AND TREND TOWARDS BKN AS THIS FRONT CLIPS
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF DRIER...COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR DTW...MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT DURING THE MORNING

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 20Z OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 041153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...EXPECT PERHAPS MBS/FNT WHERE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EARLIER
IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH...CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO 3500 FEET OR SO AND TREND TOWARDS BKN AS THIS FRONT CLIPS
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF DRIER...COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR DTW...MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT DURING THE MORNING

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 20Z OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 041153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...EXPECT PERHAPS MBS/FNT WHERE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EARLIER
IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH...CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO 3500 FEET OR SO AND TREND TOWARDS BKN AS THIS FRONT CLIPS
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF DRIER...COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR DTW...MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT DURING THE MORNING

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 20Z OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 041153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...EXPECT PERHAPS MBS/FNT WHERE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EARLIER
IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH...CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO 3500 FEET OR SO AND TREND TOWARDS BKN AS THIS FRONT CLIPS
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF DRIER...COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR DTW...MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT DURING THE MORNING

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 20Z OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 041153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...EXPECT PERHAPS MBS/FNT WHERE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EARLIER
IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH...CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO 3500 FEET OR SO AND TREND TOWARDS BKN AS THIS FRONT CLIPS
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF DRIER...COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR DTW...MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT DURING THE MORNING

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 20Z OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 041149
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
649 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
CLIMATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. I DID
ADD VCSH TO THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z WED. AT THIS TIME ANY
IMPACT CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND BRIEF.

MVFR CLOUDS STILL PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. KLDM DID GO TO VFR RECENTLY AND KFKS HAS CLEARED OUT. I
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND OF VFR WEATHER ARRIVING WED AM DESPITE
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1948)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW






000
FXUS63 KMQT 041137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
637 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO COME DOWN SOME TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EXACT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR ADDS SOME ADDITIONAL COMPLEXITY TO THE
FORECAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 041137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
637 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO COME DOWN SOME TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EXACT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR ADDS SOME ADDITIONAL COMPLEXITY TO THE
FORECAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 041137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
637 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO COME DOWN SOME TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EXACT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR ADDS SOME ADDITIONAL COMPLEXITY TO THE
FORECAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041125
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KAPX 041125
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041125
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KAPX 041125
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040918
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040918
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040908
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAVE COMBINED
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDUCE VSBY TONIGHT IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KIWD AND ESPECIALLY THE KCMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS
WNW WINDS DIE DOWN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 040908
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAVE COMBINED
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDUCE VSBY TONIGHT IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KIWD AND ESPECIALLY THE KCMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS
WNW WINDS DIE DOWN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040908
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAVE COMBINED
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDUCE VSBY TONIGHT IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KIWD AND ESPECIALLY THE KCMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS
WNW WINDS DIE DOWN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KDTX 040847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....99


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 040847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....99


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....99


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 040847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....99


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 040822
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. I DID
ADD VCSH TO THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z WED. AT THIS TIME ANY
IMPACT CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND BRIEF.

MVFR CLOUDS STILL PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. KLDM DID GO TO VFR RECENTLY AND KFKS HAS CLEARED OUT. I
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND OF VFR WEATHER ARRIVING WED AM DESPITE
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW










000
FXUS63 KGRR 040822
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. I DID
ADD VCSH TO THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z WED. AT THIS TIME ANY
IMPACT CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND BRIEF.

MVFR CLOUDS STILL PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. KLDM DID GO TO VFR RECENTLY AND KFKS HAS CLEARED OUT. I
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND OF VFR WEATHER ARRIVING WED AM DESPITE
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW










000
FXUS63 KGRR 040822
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. I DID
ADD VCSH TO THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z WED. AT THIS TIME ANY
IMPACT CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND BRIEF.

MVFR CLOUDS STILL PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. KLDM DID GO TO VFR RECENTLY AND KFKS HAS CLEARED OUT. I
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND OF VFR WEATHER ARRIVING WED AM DESPITE
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW










000
FXUS63 KGRR 040822
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. I DID
ADD VCSH TO THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z WED. AT THIS TIME ANY
IMPACT CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND BRIEF.

MVFR CLOUDS STILL PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. KLDM DID GO TO VFR RECENTLY AND KFKS HAS CLEARED OUT. I
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND OF VFR WEATHER ARRIVING WED AM DESPITE
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW










000
FXUS63 KMQT 040804
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
304 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...LEADING TO A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRESENT. 925-850MB
MEAN WIND DIRECTION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL FOCUS
ON THOSE AREAS INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOWNWIND OF THE ASSUMED
OPEN ICE AREAS AFTER THE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL BACK WINDS
TO THE WEST AND HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOW SUIT WHILE DIMINISHING
(DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR). WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTWARD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
FINAL ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WEAKENING WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY SOME -20S IN THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OUR 10MPH
CRITERIA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -25 AND
DECIDED TO ADD INTO THE HWO.

AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AREA
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN MOST
CASES...THESE WAVES WILL BE WEAK AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN ONTARIO. THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
WARMER THAN -12C. 850MB TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND -16C ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BUT WINDS DURING THAT
PERIOD BACK VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING
AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STRONGEST WAVE AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE...WOULDN/T EXPECT
MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING.

BEHIND THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE LAST MONTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THIS TRANSITION
AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. USING A CONSENSUS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAVORABLE
THAW/FREEZE CYCLE ON MOST DAYS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COMPACTION AND MELTING LINGERING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAVE COMBINED
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDUCE VSBY TONIGHT IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KIWD AND ESPECIALLY THE KCMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS
WNW WINDS DIE DOWN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 040804
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
304 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...LEADING TO A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRESENT. 925-850MB
MEAN WIND DIRECTION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL FOCUS
ON THOSE AREAS INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOWNWIND OF THE ASSUMED
OPEN ICE AREAS AFTER THE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL BACK WINDS
TO THE WEST AND HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOW SUIT WHILE DIMINISHING
(DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR). WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTWARD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
FINAL ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WEAKENING WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY SOME -20S IN THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OUR 10MPH
CRITERIA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -25 AND
DECIDED TO ADD INTO THE HWO.

AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AREA
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN MOST
CASES...THESE WAVES WILL BE WEAK AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN ONTARIO. THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
WARMER THAN -12C. 850MB TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND -16C ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BUT WINDS DURING THAT
PERIOD BACK VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING
AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STRONGEST WAVE AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE...WOULDN/T EXPECT
MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING.

BEHIND THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE LAST MONTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THIS TRANSITION
AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. USING A CONSENSUS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAVORABLE
THAW/FREEZE CYCLE ON MOST DAYS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COMPACTION AND MELTING LINGERING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAVE COMBINED
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDUCE VSBY TONIGHT IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KIWD AND ESPECIALLY THE KCMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS
WNW WINDS DIE DOWN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040804
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
304 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...LEADING TO A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRESENT. 925-850MB
MEAN WIND DIRECTION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL FOCUS
ON THOSE AREAS INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOWNWIND OF THE ASSUMED
OPEN ICE AREAS AFTER THE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL BACK WINDS
TO THE WEST AND HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOW SUIT WHILE DIMINISHING
(DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR). WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTWARD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
FINAL ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WEAKENING WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY SOME -20S IN THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OUR 10MPH
CRITERIA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -25 AND
DECIDED TO ADD INTO THE HWO.

AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AREA
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN MOST
CASES...THESE WAVES WILL BE WEAK AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN ONTARIO. THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
WARMER THAN -12C. 850MB TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND -16C ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BUT WINDS DURING THAT
PERIOD BACK VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING
AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STRONGEST WAVE AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE...WOULDN/T EXPECT
MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING.

BEHIND THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE LAST MONTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THIS TRANSITION
AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. USING A CONSENSUS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAVORABLE
THAW/FREEZE CYCLE ON MOST DAYS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COMPACTION AND MELTING LINGERING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAVE COMBINED
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDUCE VSBY TONIGHT IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KIWD AND ESPECIALLY THE KCMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS
WNW WINDS DIE DOWN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040536
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040536
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040536
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040536
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL




000
FXUS63 KMQT 040457
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1157 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLSOED 500 MB LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CA
COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THERE IS ALSO
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL HEAD
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED.

NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES BACK IN ON
WED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TREND OF THE SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
FORECAST WHICH IT WILL DO QUICKLY. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN
HAND. OVERALL...COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND WILL KICK
OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST IN WEST NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BELTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TONIGHT IN THOSE
AREAS AND CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WED AFTERNOON WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AS WELL
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...LEADING TO A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRESENT. 925-850MB
MEAN WIND DIRECTION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL FOCUS
ON THOSE AREAS INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOWNWIND OF THE ASSUMED
OPEN ICE AREAS AFTER THE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL BACK WINDS
TO THE WEST AND HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOW SUIT WHILE DIMINISHING
(DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR). WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTWARD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
FINAL ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WEAKENING WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY SOME -20S IN THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OUR 10MPH
CRITERIA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -25 AND
DECIDED TO ADD INTO THE HWO.

AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AREA
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN MOST
CASES...THESE WAVES WILL BE WEAK AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN ONTARIO. THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
WARMER THAN -12C. 850MB TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND -16C ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BUT WINDS DURING THAT
PERIOD BACK VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING
AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STRONGEST WAVE AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE...WOULDN/T EXPECT
MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING.

BEHIND THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE LAST MONTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THIS TRANSITION
AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. USING A CONSENSUS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAVORABLE
THAW/FREEZE CYCLE ON MOST DAYS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COMPACTION AND MELTING LINGERING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAVE COMBINED
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDUCE VSBY TONIGHT IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KIWD AND ESPECIALLY THE KCMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS
WNW WINDS DIE DOWN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF WNW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER WED...NO GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES
IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 040457
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1157 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLSOED 500 MB LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CA
COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THERE IS ALSO
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL HEAD
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED.

NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES BACK IN ON
WED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TREND OF THE SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
FORECAST WHICH IT WILL DO QUICKLY. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN
HAND. OVERALL...COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND WILL KICK
OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST IN WEST NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BELTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TONIGHT IN THOSE
AREAS AND CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WED AFTERNOON WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AS WELL
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...LEADING TO A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRESENT. 925-850MB
MEAN WIND DIRECTION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL FOCUS
ON THOSE AREAS INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOWNWIND OF THE ASSUMED
OPEN ICE AREAS AFTER THE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL BACK WINDS
TO THE WEST AND HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOW SUIT WHILE DIMINISHING
(DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR). WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTWARD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
FINAL ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WEAKENING WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY SOME -20S IN THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OUR 10MPH
CRITERIA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -25 AND
DECIDED TO ADD INTO THE HWO.

AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AREA
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN MOST
CASES...THESE WAVES WILL BE WEAK AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN ONTARIO. THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
WARMER THAN -12C. 850MB TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND -16C ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BUT WINDS DURING THAT
PERIOD BACK VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING
AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STRONGEST WAVE AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE...WOULDN/T EXPECT
MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING.

BEHIND THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE LAST MONTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THIS TRANSITION
AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. USING A CONSENSUS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAVORABLE
THAW/FREEZE CYCLE ON MOST DAYS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COMPACTION AND MELTING LINGERING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAVE COMBINED
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDUCE VSBY TONIGHT IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KIWD AND ESPECIALLY THE KCMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS
WNW WINDS DIE DOWN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF WNW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER WED...NO GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES
IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040457
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1157 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLSOED 500 MB LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CA
COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THERE IS ALSO
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL HEAD
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED.

NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES BACK IN ON
WED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TREND OF THE SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
FORECAST WHICH IT WILL DO QUICKLY. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN
HAND. OVERALL...COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND WILL KICK
OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST IN WEST NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BELTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TONIGHT IN THOSE
AREAS AND CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WED AFTERNOON WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AS WELL
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...LEADING TO A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRESENT. 925-850MB
MEAN WIND DIRECTION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL FOCUS
ON THOSE AREAS INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOWNWIND OF THE ASSUMED
OPEN ICE AREAS AFTER THE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL BACK WINDS
TO THE WEST AND HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOW SUIT WHILE DIMINISHING
(DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR). WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTWARD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
FINAL ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WEAKENING WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY SOME -20S IN THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OUR 10MPH
CRITERIA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -25 AND
DECIDED TO ADD INTO THE HWO.

AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AREA
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN MOST
CASES...THESE WAVES WILL BE WEAK AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN ONTARIO. THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
WARMER THAN -12C. 850MB TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND -16C ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BUT WINDS DURING THAT
PERIOD BACK VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING
AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STRONGEST WAVE AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE...WOULDN/T EXPECT
MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING.

BEHIND THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE LAST MONTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THIS TRANSITION
AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. USING A CONSENSUS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAVORABLE
THAW/FREEZE CYCLE ON MOST DAYS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COMPACTION AND MELTING LINGERING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAVE COMBINED
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDUCE VSBY TONIGHT IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KIWD AND ESPECIALLY THE KCMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS
WNW WINDS DIE DOWN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF WNW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER WED...NO GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES
IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KGRR 040445
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SO SLIPPERY
ROADS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE SECONDARY
ROADS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 20S. ARCTIC AIR SURGES BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS ON THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD SNAP WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 30S OVER
THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH A
DRY...COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DECIDED TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST A BIT EARLY AS KGRR
RADAR TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOW LINGERING LIGHT PCPN
WAS ENDING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS AS BRISK WEST WINDS
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BRISK
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 800PM. WE ARE
STILL GETTING REPORTS OF UNKNOWN PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER A GOOD
DEAL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT KGRR
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS...WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE TYPICALLY. BUFKIT OVERVIEWS SHOW SOME WEAK LIFT IN
THE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH THE DGZ UNSATURATED. THIS SETUP CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT LEAST. SO...WITH ONGOING FREEZING PRECIP
AND MODEL DATA INDICATING IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IF NOT
THE OVERNIGHT...LEAVING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STAND. WE WILL
BE MONITORING OBS AND NEW MODEL DATA THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND DETERMINE WHETHER TO DROP OR EXTEND THE WWA AS WE APPROACH
800PM. NEED TO KEEP IT ROLLING THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE FOR SURE.

BEYOND THIS EVENING IMPACT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF
THE COLD. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS BELOW 4000FT FOR THE MOST PART. THESE
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTHS COMBINED WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ SHOULD
RESULT IN SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS THE
LAKE. IN FACT HAVE ONLY CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST IN THE WEST (30-50 PCT).

COLDEST AIR IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
IN AREAS RECEIVING THE VERY FINE/SMALL SNOWFLAKES SOME TRAVEL
INCONVENIENCES MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE COLD AIR TEMPS AND SNOW ON THE
ROADS. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SCENARIO MULTIPLE TIMES THIS WINTER. JUST
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW FOR BIG IMPACTS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS TOWARDS
MT. PLEASANT AND ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. SW FLOW AND SOME SUN WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND REACHING THE 30S
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT WITH
VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
NEXT WEEK. BEYOND TUESDAY THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS IN A
CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. I DID
ADD VCSH TO THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z WED. AT THIS TIME ANY
IMPACT CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND BRIEF.

MVFR CLOUDS STILL PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. KLDM DID GO TO VFR RECENTLY AND KFKS HAS CLEARED OUT. I
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND OF VFR WEATHER ARRIVING WED AM DESPITE
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 040445
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SO SLIPPERY
ROADS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE SECONDARY
ROADS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 20S. ARCTIC AIR SURGES BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS ON THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD SNAP WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 30S OVER
THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH A
DRY...COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DECIDED TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST A BIT EARLY AS KGRR
RADAR TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOW LINGERING LIGHT PCPN
WAS ENDING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS AS BRISK WEST WINDS
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BRISK
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 800PM. WE ARE
STILL GETTING REPORTS OF UNKNOWN PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER A GOOD
DEAL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT KGRR
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS...WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE TYPICALLY. BUFKIT OVERVIEWS SHOW SOME WEAK LIFT IN
THE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH THE DGZ UNSATURATED. THIS SETUP CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT LEAST. SO...WITH ONGOING FREEZING PRECIP
AND MODEL DATA INDICATING IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IF NOT
THE OVERNIGHT...LEAVING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STAND. WE WILL
BE MONITORING OBS AND NEW MODEL DATA THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND DETERMINE WHETHER TO DROP OR EXTEND THE WWA AS WE APPROACH
800PM. NEED TO KEEP IT ROLLING THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE FOR SURE.

BEYOND THIS EVENING IMPACT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF
THE COLD. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS BELOW 4000FT FOR THE MOST PART. THESE
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTHS COMBINED WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ SHOULD
RESULT IN SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS THE
LAKE. IN FACT HAVE ONLY CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST IN THE WEST (30-50 PCT).

COLDEST AIR IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
IN AREAS RECEIVING THE VERY FINE/SMALL SNOWFLAKES SOME TRAVEL
INCONVENIENCES MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE COLD AIR TEMPS AND SNOW ON THE
ROADS. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SCENARIO MULTIPLE TIMES THIS WINTER. JUST
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW FOR BIG IMPACTS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS TOWARDS
MT. PLEASANT AND ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. SW FLOW AND SOME SUN WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND REACHING THE 30S
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT WITH
VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
NEXT WEEK. BEYOND TUESDAY THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS IN A
CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. I DID
ADD VCSH TO THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z WED. AT THIS TIME ANY
IMPACT CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND BRIEF.

MVFR CLOUDS STILL PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. KLDM DID GO TO VFR RECENTLY AND KFKS HAS CLEARED OUT. I
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND OF VFR WEATHER ARRIVING WED AM DESPITE
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW






000
FXUS63 KGRR 040445
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SO SLIPPERY
ROADS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE SECONDARY
ROADS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 20S. ARCTIC AIR SURGES BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS ON THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD SNAP WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 30S OVER
THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH A
DRY...COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DECIDED TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST A BIT EARLY AS KGRR
RADAR TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOW LINGERING LIGHT PCPN
WAS ENDING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS AS BRISK WEST WINDS
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BRISK
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 800PM. WE ARE
STILL GETTING REPORTS OF UNKNOWN PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER A GOOD
DEAL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT KGRR
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS...WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE TYPICALLY. BUFKIT OVERVIEWS SHOW SOME WEAK LIFT IN
THE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH THE DGZ UNSATURATED. THIS SETUP CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT LEAST. SO...WITH ONGOING FREEZING PRECIP
AND MODEL DATA INDICATING IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IF NOT
THE OVERNIGHT...LEAVING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STAND. WE WILL
BE MONITORING OBS AND NEW MODEL DATA THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND DETERMINE WHETHER TO DROP OR EXTEND THE WWA AS WE APPROACH
800PM. NEED TO KEEP IT ROLLING THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE FOR SURE.

BEYOND THIS EVENING IMPACT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF
THE COLD. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS BELOW 4000FT FOR THE MOST PART. THESE
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTHS COMBINED WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ SHOULD
RESULT IN SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS THE
LAKE. IN FACT HAVE ONLY CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST IN THE WEST (30-50 PCT).

COLDEST AIR IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
IN AREAS RECEIVING THE VERY FINE/SMALL SNOWFLAKES SOME TRAVEL
INCONVENIENCES MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE COLD AIR TEMPS AND SNOW ON THE
ROADS. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SCENARIO MULTIPLE TIMES THIS WINTER. JUST
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW FOR BIG IMPACTS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS TOWARDS
MT. PLEASANT AND ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. SW FLOW AND SOME SUN WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND REACHING THE 30S
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT WITH
VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
NEXT WEEK. BEYOND TUESDAY THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS IN A
CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. I DID
ADD VCSH TO THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z WED. AT THIS TIME ANY
IMPACT CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND BRIEF.

MVFR CLOUDS STILL PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. KLDM DID GO TO VFR RECENTLY AND KFKS HAS CLEARED OUT. I
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND OF VFR WEATHER ARRIVING WED AM DESPITE
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 040445
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SO SLIPPERY
ROADS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE SECONDARY
ROADS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 20S. ARCTIC AIR SURGES BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS ON THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD SNAP WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 30S OVER
THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH A
DRY...COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DECIDED TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST A BIT EARLY AS KGRR
RADAR TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOW LINGERING LIGHT PCPN
WAS ENDING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS AS BRISK WEST WINDS
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BRISK
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 800PM. WE ARE
STILL GETTING REPORTS OF UNKNOWN PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER A GOOD
DEAL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT KGRR
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS...WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE TYPICALLY. BUFKIT OVERVIEWS SHOW SOME WEAK LIFT IN
THE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH THE DGZ UNSATURATED. THIS SETUP CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT LEAST. SO...WITH ONGOING FREEZING PRECIP
AND MODEL DATA INDICATING IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IF NOT
THE OVERNIGHT...LEAVING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STAND. WE WILL
BE MONITORING OBS AND NEW MODEL DATA THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND DETERMINE WHETHER TO DROP OR EXTEND THE WWA AS WE APPROACH
800PM. NEED TO KEEP IT ROLLING THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE FOR SURE.

BEYOND THIS EVENING IMPACT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF
THE COLD. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS BELOW 4000FT FOR THE MOST PART. THESE
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTHS COMBINED WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ SHOULD
RESULT IN SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS THE
LAKE. IN FACT HAVE ONLY CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST IN THE WEST (30-50 PCT).

COLDEST AIR IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
IN AREAS RECEIVING THE VERY FINE/SMALL SNOWFLAKES SOME TRAVEL
INCONVENIENCES MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE COLD AIR TEMPS AND SNOW ON THE
ROADS. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SCENARIO MULTIPLE TIMES THIS WINTER. JUST
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW FOR BIG IMPACTS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS TOWARDS
MT. PLEASANT AND ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. SW FLOW AND SOME SUN WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND REACHING THE 30S
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT WITH
VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
NEXT WEEK. BEYOND TUESDAY THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS IN A
CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. I DID
ADD VCSH TO THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z WED. AT THIS TIME ANY
IMPACT CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND BRIEF.

MVFR CLOUDS STILL PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. KLDM DID GO TO VFR RECENTLY AND KFKS HAS CLEARED OUT. I
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND OF VFR WEATHER ARRIVING WED AM DESPITE
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 040445
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SO SLIPPERY
ROADS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE SECONDARY
ROADS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 20S. ARCTIC AIR SURGES BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS ON THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD SNAP WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 30S OVER
THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH A
DRY...COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DECIDED TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST A BIT EARLY AS KGRR
RADAR TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOW LINGERING LIGHT PCPN
WAS ENDING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS AS BRISK WEST WINDS
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BRISK
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 800PM. WE ARE
STILL GETTING REPORTS OF UNKNOWN PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER A GOOD
DEAL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT KGRR
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS...WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE TYPICALLY. BUFKIT OVERVIEWS SHOW SOME WEAK LIFT IN
THE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH THE DGZ UNSATURATED. THIS SETUP CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT LEAST. SO...WITH ONGOING FREEZING PRECIP
AND MODEL DATA INDICATING IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IF NOT
THE OVERNIGHT...LEAVING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STAND. WE WILL
BE MONITORING OBS AND NEW MODEL DATA THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND DETERMINE WHETHER TO DROP OR EXTEND THE WWA AS WE APPROACH
800PM. NEED TO KEEP IT ROLLING THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE FOR SURE.

BEYOND THIS EVENING IMPACT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF
THE COLD. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS BELOW 4000FT FOR THE MOST PART. THESE
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTHS COMBINED WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ SHOULD
RESULT IN SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS THE
LAKE. IN FACT HAVE ONLY CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST IN THE WEST (30-50 PCT).

COLDEST AIR IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
IN AREAS RECEIVING THE VERY FINE/SMALL SNOWFLAKES SOME TRAVEL
INCONVENIENCES MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE COLD AIR TEMPS AND SNOW ON THE
ROADS. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SCENARIO MULTIPLE TIMES THIS WINTER. JUST
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW FOR BIG IMPACTS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS TOWARDS
MT. PLEASANT AND ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. SW FLOW AND SOME SUN WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND REACHING THE 30S
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT WITH
VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
NEXT WEEK. BEYOND TUESDAY THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS IN A
CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. I DID
ADD VCSH TO THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z WED. AT THIS TIME ANY
IMPACT CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND BRIEF.

MVFR CLOUDS STILL PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. KLDM DID GO TO VFR RECENTLY AND KFKS HAS CLEARED OUT. I
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND OF VFR WEATHER ARRIVING WED AM DESPITE
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 040445
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SO SLIPPERY
ROADS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE SECONDARY
ROADS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 20S. ARCTIC AIR SURGES BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS ON THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD SNAP WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 30S OVER
THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH A
DRY...COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DECIDED TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST A BIT EARLY AS KGRR
RADAR TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOW LINGERING LIGHT PCPN
WAS ENDING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS AS BRISK WEST WINDS
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BRISK
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 800PM. WE ARE
STILL GETTING REPORTS OF UNKNOWN PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER A GOOD
DEAL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT KGRR
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS...WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE TYPICALLY. BUFKIT OVERVIEWS SHOW SOME WEAK LIFT IN
THE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH THE DGZ UNSATURATED. THIS SETUP CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT LEAST. SO...WITH ONGOING FREEZING PRECIP
AND MODEL DATA INDICATING IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IF NOT
THE OVERNIGHT...LEAVING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STAND. WE WILL
BE MONITORING OBS AND NEW MODEL DATA THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND DETERMINE WHETHER TO DROP OR EXTEND THE WWA AS WE APPROACH
800PM. NEED TO KEEP IT ROLLING THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE FOR SURE.

BEYOND THIS EVENING IMPACT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF
THE COLD. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS BELOW 4000FT FOR THE MOST PART. THESE
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTHS COMBINED WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ SHOULD
RESULT IN SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS THE
LAKE. IN FACT HAVE ONLY CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST IN THE WEST (30-50 PCT).

COLDEST AIR IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
IN AREAS RECEIVING THE VERY FINE/SMALL SNOWFLAKES SOME TRAVEL
INCONVENIENCES MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE COLD AIR TEMPS AND SNOW ON THE
ROADS. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SCENARIO MULTIPLE TIMES THIS WINTER. JUST
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW FOR BIG IMPACTS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS TOWARDS
MT. PLEASANT AND ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. SW FLOW AND SOME SUN WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND REACHING THE 30S
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT WITH
VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
NEXT WEEK. BEYOND TUESDAY THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS IN A
CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. I DID
ADD VCSH TO THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z WED. AT THIS TIME ANY
IMPACT CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND BRIEF.

MVFR CLOUDS STILL PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. KLDM DID GO TO VFR RECENTLY AND KFKS HAS CLEARED OUT. I
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND OF VFR WEATHER ARRIVING WED AM DESPITE
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW







000
FXUS63 KDTX 040441
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 040441
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 040441
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 040441
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 040441
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 040240
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040240
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040240
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040240
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040240
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 040240
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040221 AAC
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
921 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040221 AAC
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
921 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040221 AAC
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
921 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040221 AAC
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
921 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040108
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
808 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLSOED 500 MB LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CA
COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THERE IS ALSO
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL HEAD
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED.

NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES BACK IN ON
WED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TREND OF THE SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
FORECAST WHICH IT WILL DO QUICKLY. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN
HAND. OVERALL...COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND WILL KICK
OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST IN WEST NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BELTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TONIGHT IN THOSE
AREAS AND CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WED AFTERNOON WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AS WELL
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...LEADING TO A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRESENT. 925-850MB
MEAN WIND DIRECTION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL FOCUS
ON THOSE AREAS INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOWNWIND OF THE ASSUMED
OPEN ICE AREAS AFTER THE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL BACK WINDS
TO THE WEST AND HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOW SUIT WHILE DIMINISHING
(DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR). WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTWARD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
FINAL ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WEAKENING WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY SOME -20S IN THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OUR 10MPH
CRITERIA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -25 AND
DECIDED TO ADD INTO THE HWO.

AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AREA
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN MOST
CASES...THESE WAVES WILL BE WEAK AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN ONTARIO. THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
WARMER THAN -12C. 850MB TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND -16C ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BUT WINDS DURING THAT
PERIOD BACK VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING
AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STRONGEST WAVE AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE...WOULDN/T EXPECT
MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING.

BEHIND THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE LAST MONTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THIS TRANSITION
AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. USING A CONSENSUS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAVORABLE
THAW/FREEZE CYCLE ON MOST DAYS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COMPACTION AND MELTING LINGERING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VBSY THIS EVENING IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND ESPECIALLY THE CMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF WNW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER WED...NO GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES
IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040108
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
808 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLSOED 500 MB LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CA
COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THERE IS ALSO
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL HEAD
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED.

NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES BACK IN ON
WED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TREND OF THE SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
FORECAST WHICH IT WILL DO QUICKLY. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN
HAND. OVERALL...COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND WILL KICK
OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST IN WEST NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BELTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TONIGHT IN THOSE
AREAS AND CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WED AFTERNOON WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AS WELL
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...LEADING TO A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRESENT. 925-850MB
MEAN WIND DIRECTION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL FOCUS
ON THOSE AREAS INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOWNWIND OF THE ASSUMED
OPEN ICE AREAS AFTER THE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL BACK WINDS
TO THE WEST AND HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOW SUIT WHILE DIMINISHING
(DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR). WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTWARD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
FINAL ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WEAKENING WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY SOME -20S IN THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OUR 10MPH
CRITERIA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -25 AND
DECIDED TO ADD INTO THE HWO.

AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AREA
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN MOST
CASES...THESE WAVES WILL BE WEAK AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN ONTARIO. THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
WARMER THAN -12C. 850MB TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND -16C ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BUT WINDS DURING THAT
PERIOD BACK VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING
AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STRONGEST WAVE AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE...WOULDN/T EXPECT
MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING.

BEHIND THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE LAST MONTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THIS TRANSITION
AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. USING A CONSENSUS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAVORABLE
THAW/FREEZE CYCLE ON MOST DAYS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COMPACTION AND MELTING LINGERING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VBSY THIS EVENING IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND ESPECIALLY THE CMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF WNW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER WED...NO GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES
IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 040108
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
808 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLSOED 500 MB LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CA
COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THERE IS ALSO
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL HEAD
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED.

NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES BACK IN ON
WED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TREND OF THE SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
FORECAST WHICH IT WILL DO QUICKLY. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN
HAND. OVERALL...COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND WILL KICK
OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST IN WEST NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BELTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TONIGHT IN THOSE
AREAS AND CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WED AFTERNOON WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AS WELL
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...LEADING TO A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRESENT. 925-850MB
MEAN WIND DIRECTION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL FOCUS
ON THOSE AREAS INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOWNWIND OF THE ASSUMED
OPEN ICE AREAS AFTER THE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL BACK WINDS
TO THE WEST AND HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOW SUIT WHILE DIMINISHING
(DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR). WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTWARD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
FINAL ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WEAKENING WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY SOME -20S IN THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OUR 10MPH
CRITERIA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -25 AND
DECIDED TO ADD INTO THE HWO.

AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AREA
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN MOST
CASES...THESE WAVES WILL BE WEAK AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN ONTARIO. THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
WARMER THAN -12C. 850MB TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND -16C ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BUT WINDS DURING THAT
PERIOD BACK VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING
AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STRONGEST WAVE AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE...WOULDN/T EXPECT
MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING.

BEHIND THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE LAST MONTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THIS TRANSITION
AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. USING A CONSENSUS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAVORABLE
THAW/FREEZE CYCLE ON MOST DAYS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COMPACTION AND MELTING LINGERING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VBSY THIS EVENING IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND ESPECIALLY THE CMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF WNW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER WED...NO GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES
IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 040108
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
808 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLSOED 500 MB LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CA
COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THERE IS ALSO
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL HEAD
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED.

NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES BACK IN ON
WED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TREND OF THE SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
FORECAST WHICH IT WILL DO QUICKLY. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN
HAND. OVERALL...COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND WILL KICK
OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST IN WEST NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BELTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TONIGHT IN THOSE
AREAS AND CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WED AFTERNOON WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AS WELL
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...LEADING TO A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRESENT. 925-850MB
MEAN WIND DIRECTION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL FOCUS
ON THOSE AREAS INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOWNWIND OF THE ASSUMED
OPEN ICE AREAS AFTER THE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL BACK WINDS
TO THE WEST AND HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOW SUIT WHILE DIMINISHING
(DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR). WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTWARD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
FINAL ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WEAKENING WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY SOME -20S IN THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OUR 10MPH
CRITERIA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -25 AND
DECIDED TO ADD INTO THE HWO.

AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AREA
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN MOST
CASES...THESE WAVES WILL BE WEAK AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN ONTARIO. THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
WARMER THAN -12C. 850MB TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND -16C ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BUT WINDS DURING THAT
PERIOD BACK VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING
AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STRONGEST WAVE AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE...WOULDN/T EXPECT
MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING.

BEHIND THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE LAST MONTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THIS TRANSITION
AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. USING A CONSENSUS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAVORABLE
THAW/FREEZE CYCLE ON MOST DAYS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COMPACTION AND MELTING LINGERING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VBSY THIS EVENING IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND ESPECIALLY THE CMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF WNW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER WED...NO GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES
IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040051 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
751 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040051 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
751 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040051 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
751 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040051 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
751 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS63 KAPX 040051 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
751 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE