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000
FXUS63 KGRR 202357
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE...LOWERING CEILINGS
AND WIND GUSTS. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS PRETTY THICK IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL MAKE A SLOW SOUTHWARD
TREND AS THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
TOUGHEST PART WAS THE CALL ON WHETHER TO BRIEFLY GO IFR IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND PRE DAWN HOURS. THAT CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER
LOW...SO I STUCK WITH LOWER MVFR VALUES FOR CONSISTENCY. SOME
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TONIGHT IN THIS
PATTERN. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING BEFORE RELAXING A BIT LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH GUSTS FALL
OUT OF THE PICTURE...BREEZING CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY TOMORROW
WHICH HELPS TO BRING IN SOME DRY AIR AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
GETTING BACK TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93






000
FXUS63 KGRR 202357
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE...LOWERING CEILINGS
AND WIND GUSTS. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS PRETTY THICK IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL MAKE A SLOW SOUTHWARD
TREND AS THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
TOUGHEST PART WAS THE CALL ON WHETHER TO BRIEFLY GO IFR IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND PRE DAWN HOURS. THAT CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER
LOW...SO I STUCK WITH LOWER MVFR VALUES FOR CONSISTENCY. SOME
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TONIGHT IN THIS
PATTERN. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING BEFORE RELAXING A BIT LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH GUSTS FALL
OUT OF THE PICTURE...BREEZING CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY TOMORROW
WHICH HELPS TO BRING IN SOME DRY AIR AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
GETTING BACK TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 202335
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
735 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED OVER
THE REGION AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A TEMPO AREA OF VFR CIGS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SE LOWER MI, UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL
MVFR AND IFR CIGS WHICH WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES OVER THE
EVENING TIME FRAME. SHOWER WILL STILL BE A THREAT FROM TIME TO
TIME, ALTHOUGH WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE. THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ROTATE INTO THE SE LOWER MI OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, SO THAT MBS AND
FNT WILL BEGIN TO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY 00Z, WHILE THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES PROBABLY WON`T SEE ANY CLEARING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 202335
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
735 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED OVER
THE REGION AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A TEMPO AREA OF VFR CIGS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SE LOWER MI, UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL
MVFR AND IFR CIGS WHICH WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES OVER THE
EVENING TIME FRAME. SHOWER WILL STILL BE A THREAT FROM TIME TO
TIME, ALTHOUGH WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE. THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ROTATE INTO THE SE LOWER MI OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, SO THAT MBS AND
FNT WILL BEGIN TO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY 00Z, WHILE THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES PROBABLY WON`T SEE ANY CLEARING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 202335
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
735 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED OVER
THE REGION AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A TEMPO AREA OF VFR CIGS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SE LOWER MI, UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL
MVFR AND IFR CIGS WHICH WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES OVER THE
EVENING TIME FRAME. SHOWER WILL STILL BE A THREAT FROM TIME TO
TIME, ALTHOUGH WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE. THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ROTATE INTO THE SE LOWER MI OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, SO THAT MBS AND
FNT WILL BEGIN TO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY 00Z, WHILE THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES PROBABLY WON`T SEE ANY CLEARING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 202335
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
735 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED OVER
THE REGION AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A TEMPO AREA OF VFR CIGS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SE LOWER MI, UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL
MVFR AND IFR CIGS WHICH WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES OVER THE
EVENING TIME FRAME. SHOWER WILL STILL BE A THREAT FROM TIME TO
TIME, ALTHOUGH WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE. THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ROTATE INTO THE SE LOWER MI OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, SO THAT MBS AND
FNT WILL BEGIN TO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY 00Z, WHILE THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES PROBABLY WON`T SEE ANY CLEARING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMQT 202308
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
708 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KSAW OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 202308
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
708 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KSAW OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 202308
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
708 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KSAW OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 202308
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
708 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KSAW OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KAPX 202300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SPOTTY SPRINKLES WILL DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

A COLD FRONT ANCHORED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW COOLER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD NRN
LOWER AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM THUS FAR HAS BEEN MINIMAL...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS
OVER ERN UPPER AND FAR NE LOWER. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED CAA
TONIGHT /H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -2C OVERNIGHT/...CYCLONIC FLOW...
AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE PROSPECTS FOR INCREASING
DRIZZLE STILL LOOKS GOOD - PER INHERITED FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /LOW T-TD DEPRESSIONS/ UP
TO ROUGHLY -5C ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD BASES. FORECAST WILL REFLECT
DRIZZLE ALL AREAS THIS EVENING...MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. SUBTLE DRYING THEN BEGINS TO WORK INTO FAR N/W
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NNE OVERNIGHT...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR SOME LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT AS UPPER LOW DEEPENS JUST E
OF REGION. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DEPTH LATE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NE LOWER...HAVE TENTATIVELY
LIMITED PRECIP TO DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...WITH A LITTLE FLARE-UP NOT
REFLECTED IN FORECAST OVER NE LOWER UNTIL DAYBREAK.

UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WILL START TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AS A
POOL OF MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON
CONTRIBUTING ALSO. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C...WHICH WILL ONLY
PUT DELTA T/S AROUND 10 TO 11...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER A SHARP
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS WILL PROVIDE FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND COLD NIGHTS DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. THE WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

FRIDAY...SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION...ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY. CLEARING SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUICK AS DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN RETAKES THE REIGNS OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME
CONTINUES WITH WESTERLY WINDS.

REST OF PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THANKS TO
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MAKE
IT/S WAY TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING THIS FAR OUT WILL
INEVITABLY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...BUT MODELS TEND TO
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY
BEING THE ONSET OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN
TO RAMP UP MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH 12 TO 14C FORECAST 850MB TEMPS
COULD BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR ON TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW DEPARTS AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS INTO NRN MICHIGAN.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS
ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH LAKE HURON WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...BS







000
FXUS63 KAPX 202300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SPOTTY SPRINKLES WILL DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

A COLD FRONT ANCHORED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW COOLER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD NRN
LOWER AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM THUS FAR HAS BEEN MINIMAL...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS
OVER ERN UPPER AND FAR NE LOWER. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED CAA
TONIGHT /H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -2C OVERNIGHT/...CYCLONIC FLOW...
AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE PROSPECTS FOR INCREASING
DRIZZLE STILL LOOKS GOOD - PER INHERITED FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /LOW T-TD DEPRESSIONS/ UP
TO ROUGHLY -5C ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD BASES. FORECAST WILL REFLECT
DRIZZLE ALL AREAS THIS EVENING...MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. SUBTLE DRYING THEN BEGINS TO WORK INTO FAR N/W
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NNE OVERNIGHT...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR SOME LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT AS UPPER LOW DEEPENS JUST E
OF REGION. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DEPTH LATE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NE LOWER...HAVE TENTATIVELY
LIMITED PRECIP TO DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...WITH A LITTLE FLARE-UP NOT
REFLECTED IN FORECAST OVER NE LOWER UNTIL DAYBREAK.

UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WILL START TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AS A
POOL OF MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON
CONTRIBUTING ALSO. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C...WHICH WILL ONLY
PUT DELTA T/S AROUND 10 TO 11...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER A SHARP
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS WILL PROVIDE FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND COLD NIGHTS DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. THE WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

FRIDAY...SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION...ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY. CLEARING SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUICK AS DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN RETAKES THE REIGNS OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME
CONTINUES WITH WESTERLY WINDS.

REST OF PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THANKS TO
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MAKE
IT/S WAY TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING THIS FAR OUT WILL
INEVITABLY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...BUT MODELS TEND TO
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY
BEING THE ONSET OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN
TO RAMP UP MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH 12 TO 14C FORECAST 850MB TEMPS
COULD BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR ON TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW DEPARTS AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS INTO NRN MICHIGAN.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS
ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH LAKE HURON WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...BS






000
FXUS63 KAPX 202300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SPOTTY SPRINKLES WILL DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

A COLD FRONT ANCHORED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW COOLER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD NRN
LOWER AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM THUS FAR HAS BEEN MINIMAL...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS
OVER ERN UPPER AND FAR NE LOWER. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED CAA
TONIGHT /H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -2C OVERNIGHT/...CYCLONIC FLOW...
AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE PROSPECTS FOR INCREASING
DRIZZLE STILL LOOKS GOOD - PER INHERITED FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /LOW T-TD DEPRESSIONS/ UP
TO ROUGHLY -5C ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD BASES. FORECAST WILL REFLECT
DRIZZLE ALL AREAS THIS EVENING...MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. SUBTLE DRYING THEN BEGINS TO WORK INTO FAR N/W
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NNE OVERNIGHT...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR SOME LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT AS UPPER LOW DEEPENS JUST E
OF REGION. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DEPTH LATE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NE LOWER...HAVE TENTATIVELY
LIMITED PRECIP TO DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...WITH A LITTLE FLARE-UP NOT
REFLECTED IN FORECAST OVER NE LOWER UNTIL DAYBREAK.

UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WILL START TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AS A
POOL OF MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON
CONTRIBUTING ALSO. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C...WHICH WILL ONLY
PUT DELTA T/S AROUND 10 TO 11...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER A SHARP
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS WILL PROVIDE FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND COLD NIGHTS DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. THE WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

FRIDAY...SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION...ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY. CLEARING SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUICK AS DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN RETAKES THE REIGNS OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME
CONTINUES WITH WESTERLY WINDS.

REST OF PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THANKS TO
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MAKE
IT/S WAY TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING THIS FAR OUT WILL
INEVITABLY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...BUT MODELS TEND TO
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY
BEING THE ONSET OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN
TO RAMP UP MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH 12 TO 14C FORECAST 850MB TEMPS
COULD BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR ON TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW DEPARTS AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS INTO NRN MICHIGAN.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS
ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH LAKE HURON WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...BS






000
FXUS63 KAPX 202300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SPOTTY SPRINKLES WILL DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

A COLD FRONT ANCHORED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW COOLER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD NRN
LOWER AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM THUS FAR HAS BEEN MINIMAL...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS
OVER ERN UPPER AND FAR NE LOWER. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED CAA
TONIGHT /H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -2C OVERNIGHT/...CYCLONIC FLOW...
AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE PROSPECTS FOR INCREASING
DRIZZLE STILL LOOKS GOOD - PER INHERITED FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /LOW T-TD DEPRESSIONS/ UP
TO ROUGHLY -5C ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD BASES. FORECAST WILL REFLECT
DRIZZLE ALL AREAS THIS EVENING...MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. SUBTLE DRYING THEN BEGINS TO WORK INTO FAR N/W
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NNE OVERNIGHT...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR SOME LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT AS UPPER LOW DEEPENS JUST E
OF REGION. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DEPTH LATE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NE LOWER...HAVE TENTATIVELY
LIMITED PRECIP TO DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...WITH A LITTLE FLARE-UP NOT
REFLECTED IN FORECAST OVER NE LOWER UNTIL DAYBREAK.

UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WILL START TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AS A
POOL OF MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON
CONTRIBUTING ALSO. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C...WHICH WILL ONLY
PUT DELTA T/S AROUND 10 TO 11...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER A SHARP
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS WILL PROVIDE FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND COLD NIGHTS DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. THE WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

FRIDAY...SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION...ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY. CLEARING SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUICK AS DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN RETAKES THE REIGNS OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME
CONTINUES WITH WESTERLY WINDS.

REST OF PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THANKS TO
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MAKE
IT/S WAY TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING THIS FAR OUT WILL
INEVITABLY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...BUT MODELS TEND TO
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY
BEING THE ONSET OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN
TO RAMP UP MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH 12 TO 14C FORECAST 850MB TEMPS
COULD BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR ON TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW DEPARTS AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS INTO NRN MICHIGAN.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS
ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH LAKE HURON WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...BS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 202013
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA






000
FXUS63 KAPX 202013
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SPOTTY SPRINKLES WILL DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

A COLD FRONT ANCHORED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW COOLER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD NRN
LOWER AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM THUS FAR HAS BEEN MINIMAL...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS
OVER ERN UPPER AND FAR NE LOWER. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED CAA
TONIGHT /H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -2C OVERNIGHT/...CYCLONIC FLOW...
AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE PROSPECTS FOR INCREASING
DRIZZLE STILL LOOKS GOOD - PER INHERITED FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /LOW T-TD DEPRESSIONS/ UP
TO ROUGHLY -5C ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD BASES. FORECAST WILL REFLECT
DRIZZLE ALL AREAS THIS EVENING...MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. SUBTLE DRYING THEN BEGINS TO WORK INTO FAR N/W
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NNE OVERNIGHT...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR SOME LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT AS UPPER LOW DEEPENS JUST E
OF REGION. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DEPTH LATE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NE LOWER...HAVE TENTATIVELY
LIMITED PRECIP TO DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...WITH A LITTLE FLARE-UP NOT
REFLECTED IN FORECAST OVER NE LOWER UNTIL DAYBREAK.

UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WILL START TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AS A
POOL OF MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON
CONTRIBUTING ALSO. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C...WHICH WILL ONLY
PUT DELTA T/S AROUND 10 TO 11...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER A SHARP
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS WILL PROVIDE FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND COLD NIGHTS DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. THE WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

FRIDAY...SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION...ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY. CLEARING SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUICK AS DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN RETAKES THE REIGNS OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME
CONTINUES WITH WESTERLY WINDS.

REST OF PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THANKS TO
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MAKE
IT/S WAY TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING THIS FAR OUT WILL
INEVITABLY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...BUT MODELS TEND TO
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY
BEING THE ONSET OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN
TO RAMP UP MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH 12 TO 14C FORECAST 850MB TEMPS
COULD BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EWD ACROSS NRN MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER NORTHERLY BREEZES...COLDER AIR...AND
LOW CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION. WHILE VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL /WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED/ WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
ARE MOST LIKELY AT APN. WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AREA WIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO NNE OVERNIGHT...REMAIN AOB 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH LAKE HURON WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...BS







000
FXUS63 KAPX 202013
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SPOTTY SPRINKLES WILL DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

A COLD FRONT ANCHORED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW COOLER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD NRN
LOWER AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM THUS FAR HAS BEEN MINIMAL...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS
OVER ERN UPPER AND FAR NE LOWER. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED CAA
TONIGHT /H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -2C OVERNIGHT/...CYCLONIC FLOW...
AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE PROSPECTS FOR INCREASING
DRIZZLE STILL LOOKS GOOD - PER INHERITED FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /LOW T-TD DEPRESSIONS/ UP
TO ROUGHLY -5C ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD BASES. FORECAST WILL REFLECT
DRIZZLE ALL AREAS THIS EVENING...MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. SUBTLE DRYING THEN BEGINS TO WORK INTO FAR N/W
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NNE OVERNIGHT...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR SOME LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT AS UPPER LOW DEEPENS JUST E
OF REGION. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DEPTH LATE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NE LOWER...HAVE TENTATIVELY
LIMITED PRECIP TO DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...WITH A LITTLE FLARE-UP NOT
REFLECTED IN FORECAST OVER NE LOWER UNTIL DAYBREAK.

UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WILL START TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AS A
POOL OF MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON
CONTRIBUTING ALSO. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C...WHICH WILL ONLY
PUT DELTA T/S AROUND 10 TO 11...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER A SHARP
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS WILL PROVIDE FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND COLD NIGHTS DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. THE WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

FRIDAY...SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION...ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY. CLEARING SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUICK AS DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN RETAKES THE REIGNS OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME
CONTINUES WITH WESTERLY WINDS.

REST OF PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THANKS TO
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MAKE
IT/S WAY TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING THIS FAR OUT WILL
INEVITABLY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...BUT MODELS TEND TO
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY
BEING THE ONSET OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN
TO RAMP UP MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH 12 TO 14C FORECAST 850MB TEMPS
COULD BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EWD ACROSS NRN MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER NORTHERLY BREEZES...COLDER AIR...AND
LOW CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION. WHILE VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL /WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED/ WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
ARE MOST LIKELY AT APN. WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AREA WIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO NNE OVERNIGHT...REMAIN AOB 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH LAKE HURON WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...BS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 201957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 201957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 201957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 201957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA






000
FXUS63 KDTX 201944
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 115 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS
DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY
COVERAGE TONIGHT NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THIS TAF
FORECAST. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB
AVIATION.....MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 201944
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 115 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS
DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY
COVERAGE TONIGHT NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THIS TAF
FORECAST. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB
AVIATION.....MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 201944
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 115 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS
DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY
COVERAGE TONIGHT NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THIS TAF
FORECAST. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB
AVIATION.....MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 201944
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 115 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS
DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY
COVERAGE TONIGHT NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THIS TAF
FORECAST. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB
AVIATION.....MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KGRR 201914
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION LOWER CLOUD BASES WERE NOTED WITH MANY
SITES UNDER 2K FEET. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF KJXN BY
20Z. A PATCH OF CLEARING WAS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERALLY
VFR CLOUDS WERE NOTED TOWARD KMKG AND KFFX. THIS SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. MVFR
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LOW RISK FOR IFR. NOT MUCH
CHANGES INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS TO PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 201914
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION LOWER CLOUD BASES WERE NOTED WITH MANY
SITES UNDER 2K FEET. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF KJXN BY
20Z. A PATCH OF CLEARING WAS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERALLY
VFR CLOUDS WERE NOTED TOWARD KMKG AND KFFX. THIS SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. MVFR
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LOW RISK FOR IFR. NOT MUCH
CHANGES INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS TO PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 201914
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION LOWER CLOUD BASES WERE NOTED WITH MANY
SITES UNDER 2K FEET. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF KJXN BY
20Z. A PATCH OF CLEARING WAS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERALLY
VFR CLOUDS WERE NOTED TOWARD KMKG AND KFFX. THIS SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. MVFR
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LOW RISK FOR IFR. NOT MUCH
CHANGES INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS TO PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 201914
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION LOWER CLOUD BASES WERE NOTED WITH MANY
SITES UNDER 2K FEET. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF KJXN BY
20Z. A PATCH OF CLEARING WAS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERALLY
VFR CLOUDS WERE NOTED TOWARD KMKG AND KFFX. THIS SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. MVFR
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LOW RISK FOR IFR. NOT MUCH
CHANGES INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS TO PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KMQT 201801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 201801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201741
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MODIFIED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. ALSO ADDED SOME DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATOCU
PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. RH PROFILES SHOW SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION LOWER CLOUD BASES WERE NOTED WITH MANY
SITES UNDER 2K FEET. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF KJXN BY
20Z. A PATCH OF CLEARING WAS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERALLY
VFR CLOUDS WERE NOTED TOWARD KMKG AND KFFX. THIS SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. MVFR
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LOW RISK FOR IFR. NOT MUCH
CHANGES INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 201734
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
134 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATE THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NRN LAKE HURON WAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ESEWD WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SW FROM THIS LOW AND SLICED THROUGH NRN LOWER MI. OUTSIDE OF
CLOUDY SKIES...THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER ERN UPPER.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL TURN MORE N/NW AREA WIDE AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH BEST
FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INCREASINGLY IMPACT AREAS E OF
FORECAST AREA /PER SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA/ CAA AND RESPECTABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ERN UPPER AND FAR N/E LOWER MI...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AREA WIDE. SUSPECT BEST PRECIP COVERAGE /ESP DRIZZLE/ MAY
BECOME ANCHORED ONTO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI.

OTHERWISE...UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOLD
IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EWD ACROSS NRN MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER NORTHERLY BREEZES...COLDER AIR...AND
LOW CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION. WHILE VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL /WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED/ WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
ARE MOST LIKELY AT APN. WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AREA WIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO NNE OVERNIGHT...REMAIN AOB 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BS
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 201734
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
134 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATE THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NRN LAKE HURON WAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ESEWD WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SW FROM THIS LOW AND SLICED THROUGH NRN LOWER MI. OUTSIDE OF
CLOUDY SKIES...THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER ERN UPPER.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL TURN MORE N/NW AREA WIDE AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH BEST
FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INCREASINGLY IMPACT AREAS E OF
FORECAST AREA /PER SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA/ CAA AND RESPECTABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ERN UPPER AND FAR N/E LOWER MI...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AREA WIDE. SUSPECT BEST PRECIP COVERAGE /ESP DRIZZLE/ MAY
BECOME ANCHORED ONTO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI.

OTHERWISE...UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOLD
IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EWD ACROSS NRN MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER NORTHERLY BREEZES...COLDER AIR...AND
LOW CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION. WHILE VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL /WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED/ WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
ARE MOST LIKELY AT APN. WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AREA WIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO NNE OVERNIGHT...REMAIN AOB 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BS
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...JL






000
FXUS63 KDTX 201715
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
115 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS
DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY
COVERAGE TONIGHT NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THIS TAF
FORECAST. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MSB
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KGRR 201448
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1048 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MODIFIED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. ALSO ADDED SOME DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATOCU
PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. RH PROFILES SHOW SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENTLY THE THERMAL RIDGE AT LOW LEVELS IS CROSSING SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT IS HELPING TO KEEP THE CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON I WOULD EXPECT
EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD OVER ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. THOSE
LOWER CEILING WILL LAST INTO THE DAY TIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE...I PUT VCTS IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY TAF SITE I
ACTUALLY PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAF MKG. THAT WAS FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. AFTER THAT
THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS
OFF SHORE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 201420
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1020 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATE THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NRN LAKE HURON WAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ESEWD WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SW FROM THIS LOW AND SLICED THROUGH NRN LOWER MI. OUTSIDE OF
CLOUDY SKIES...THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER ERN UPPER.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL TURN MORE N/NW AREA WIDE AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH BEST
FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INCREASINGLY IMPACT AREAS E OF
FORECAST AREA /PER SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA/ CAA AND RESPECTABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ERN UPPER AND FAR N/E LOWER MI...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AREA WIDE. SUSPECT BEST PRECIP COVERAGE /ESP DRIZZLE/ MAY
BECOME ANCHORED ONTO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI.

OTHERWISE...UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOLD
IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE COMMON THRU THE FORECAST.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE STRAITS AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MI TODAY. PATCHY CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE
SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT BEHIND
IT. MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR...BUT EXPECT APN TO BE IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO BE SOME -SHRA AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES...AGAIN ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG AT MBL EARLY THIS
MORNING.

OUR CURRENT SSW WINDS WILL VEER NW AND THEN NORTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BS
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 201420
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1020 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATE THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NRN LAKE HURON WAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ESEWD WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SW FROM THIS LOW AND SLICED THROUGH NRN LOWER MI. OUTSIDE OF
CLOUDY SKIES...THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER ERN UPPER.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL TURN MORE N/NW AREA WIDE AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH BEST
FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INCREASINGLY IMPACT AREAS E OF
FORECAST AREA /PER SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA/ CAA AND RESPECTABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ERN UPPER AND FAR N/E LOWER MI...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AREA WIDE. SUSPECT BEST PRECIP COVERAGE /ESP DRIZZLE/ MAY
BECOME ANCHORED ONTO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI.

OTHERWISE...UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOLD
IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE COMMON THRU THE FORECAST.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE STRAITS AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MI TODAY. PATCHY CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE
SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT BEHIND
IT. MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR...BUT EXPECT APN TO BE IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO BE SOME -SHRA AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES...AGAIN ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG AT MBL EARLY THIS
MORNING.

OUR CURRENT SSW WINDS WILL VEER NW AND THEN NORTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BS
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 201420
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1020 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATE THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NRN LAKE HURON WAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ESEWD WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SW FROM THIS LOW AND SLICED THROUGH NRN LOWER MI. OUTSIDE OF
CLOUDY SKIES...THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER ERN UPPER.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL TURN MORE N/NW AREA WIDE AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH BEST
FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INCREASINGLY IMPACT AREAS E OF
FORECAST AREA /PER SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA/ CAA AND RESPECTABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ERN UPPER AND FAR N/E LOWER MI...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AREA WIDE. SUSPECT BEST PRECIP COVERAGE /ESP DRIZZLE/ MAY
BECOME ANCHORED ONTO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI.

OTHERWISE...UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOLD
IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE COMMON THRU THE FORECAST.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE STRAITS AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MI TODAY. PATCHY CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE
SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT BEHIND
IT. MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR...BUT EXPECT APN TO BE IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO BE SOME -SHRA AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES...AGAIN ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG AT MBL EARLY THIS
MORNING.

OUR CURRENT SSW WINDS WILL VEER NW AND THEN NORTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BS
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 201420
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1020 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATE THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NRN LAKE HURON WAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ESEWD WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SW FROM THIS LOW AND SLICED THROUGH NRN LOWER MI. OUTSIDE OF
CLOUDY SKIES...THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER ERN UPPER.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL TURN MORE N/NW AREA WIDE AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH BEST
FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INCREASINGLY IMPACT AREAS E OF
FORECAST AREA /PER SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA/ CAA AND RESPECTABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ERN UPPER AND FAR N/E LOWER MI...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AREA WIDE. SUSPECT BEST PRECIP COVERAGE /ESP DRIZZLE/ MAY
BECOME ANCHORED ONTO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI.

OTHERWISE...UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOLD
IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE COMMON THRU THE FORECAST.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE STRAITS AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MI TODAY. PATCHY CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE
SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT BEHIND
IT. MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR...BUT EXPECT APN TO BE IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO BE SOME -SHRA AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES...AGAIN ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG AT MBL EARLY THIS
MORNING.

OUR CURRENT SSW WINDS WILL VEER NW AND THEN NORTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BS
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL





000
FXUS63 KGRR 201153
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENTLY THE THERMAL RIDGE AT LOW LEVELS IS CROSSING SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT IS HELPING TO KEEP THE CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON I WOULD EXPECT
EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD OVER ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. THOSE
LOWER CEILING WILL LAST INTO THE DAY TIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE...I PUT VCTS IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY TAF SITE I
ACTUALLY PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAF MKG. THAT WAS FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. AFTER THAT
THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS
OFF SHORE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 201153
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENTLY THE THERMAL RIDGE AT LOW LEVELS IS CROSSING SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT IS HELPING TO KEEP THE CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON I WOULD EXPECT
EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD OVER ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. THOSE
LOWER CEILING WILL LAST INTO THE DAY TIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE...I PUT VCTS IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY TAF SITE I
ACTUALLY PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAF MKG. THAT WAS FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. AFTER THAT
THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS
OFF SHORE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KMQT 201140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KCMX AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AT KSAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 201140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KCMX AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AT KSAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 201140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KCMX AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AT KSAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 201140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KCMX AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AT KSAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KAPX 201139
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE COMMON THRU THE FORECAST.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE STRAITS AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MI TODAY. PATCHY CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE
SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT BEHIND
IT. MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR...BUT EXPECT APN TO BE IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO BE SOME -SHRA AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES...AGAIN ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG AT MBL EARLY THIS
MORNING.

OUR CURRENT SSW WINDS WILL VEER NW AND THEN NORTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL






000
FXUS63 KAPX 201139
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE COMMON THRU THE FORECAST.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE STRAITS AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MI TODAY. PATCHY CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE
SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT BEHIND
IT. MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR...BUT EXPECT APN TO BE IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO BE SOME -SHRA AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES...AGAIN ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG AT MBL EARLY THIS
MORNING.

OUR CURRENT SSW WINDS WILL VEER NW AND THEN NORTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KDTX 201010
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
610 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A STEADY INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LOWERING
CEILING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. RECENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM
SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN VFR AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXITS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ARRIVE
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW 2000 FT
OVERNIGHT AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER SATURATION COMMENCES. PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 201010
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
610 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A STEADY INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LOWERING
CEILING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. RECENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM
SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN VFR AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXITS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ARRIVE
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW 2000 FT
OVERNIGHT AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER SATURATION COMMENCES. PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 201010
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
610 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A STEADY INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LOWERING
CEILING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. RECENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM
SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN VFR AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXITS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ARRIVE
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW 2000 FT
OVERNIGHT AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER SATURATION COMMENCES. PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 201010
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
610 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A STEADY INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LOWERING
CEILING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. RECENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM
SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN VFR AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXITS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ARRIVE
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW 2000 FT
OVERNIGHT AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER SATURATION COMMENCES. PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KMQT 200844
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 200844
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 200844
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 200844
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KDTX 200753
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 200753
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 200753
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 200753
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KGRR 200727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN LIKELY FOR MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 200727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN LIKELY FOR MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 200727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN LIKELY FOR MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 200727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN LIKELY FOR MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 200723
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
323 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS VERY
LATE TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THE
RULE THRU MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER NRN MICHIGAN. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JL






000
FXUS63 KAPX 200723
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
323 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS VERY
LATE TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THE
RULE THRU MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER NRN MICHIGAN. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KMQT 200701
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 200701
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 200627
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
227 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF









000
FXUS63 KMQT 200627
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
227 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KGRR 200415
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AFTER WHICH A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND FOCUS ON THE CLIPPER MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER A QUICK CHECK OF THE OBS SHOWS MOST OF IT AS VIRGA. THE PCPN
IS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT IS STILL IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
THE MOST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY.
HOWEVER THE WARM ADVECTION ISN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THE VALUE OF
THOSE DEFICITS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MUCH RAINFALL. QPF IS LIGHT
AND POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE TRAILING UPPER LOW IS
PRETTY SHARP AND WELL VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LIFT
AHEAD OF IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF US-127
MONDAY.

H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA BY
ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER HERE IN MICHIGAN.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PUSH IN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP.  A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS.  AT
THIS POINT THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY.  A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN LIKELY FOR MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON LOCAL STREAMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 200415
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AFTER WHICH A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND FOCUS ON THE CLIPPER MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER A QUICK CHECK OF THE OBS SHOWS MOST OF IT AS VIRGA. THE PCPN
IS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT IS STILL IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
THE MOST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY.
HOWEVER THE WARM ADVECTION ISN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THE VALUE OF
THOSE DEFICITS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MUCH RAINFALL. QPF IS LIGHT
AND POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE TRAILING UPPER LOW IS
PRETTY SHARP AND WELL VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LIFT
AHEAD OF IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF US-127
MONDAY.

H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA BY
ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER HERE IN MICHIGAN.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PUSH IN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP.  A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS.  AT
THIS POINT THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY.  A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN LIKELY FOR MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON LOCAL STREAMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KDTX 200413
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1213 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 200413
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1213 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KAPX 200345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS VERY
LATE TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THE
RULE THRU MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER NRN MICHIGAN. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 200345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS VERY
LATE TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THE
RULE THRU MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER NRN MICHIGAN. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 192346
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AFTER WHICH A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND FOCUS ON THE CLIPPER MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER A QUICK CHECK OF THE OBS SHOWS MOST OF IT AS VIRGA. THE PCPN
IS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT IS STILL IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
THE MOST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY.
HOWEVER THE WARM ADVECTION ISN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THE VALUE OF
THOSE DEFICITS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MUCH RAINFALL. QPF IS LIGHT
AND POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE TRAILING UPPER LOW IS
PRETTY SHARP AND WELL VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LIFT
AHEAD OF IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF US-127
MONDAY.

H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA BY
ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER HERE IN MICHIGAN.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PUSH IN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP.  A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS.  AT
THIS POINT THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY.  A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME COMMON
TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON LOCAL STREAMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 192346
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AFTER WHICH A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND FOCUS ON THE CLIPPER MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER A QUICK CHECK OF THE OBS SHOWS MOST OF IT AS VIRGA. THE PCPN
IS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT IS STILL IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
THE MOST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY.
HOWEVER THE WARM ADVECTION ISN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THE VALUE OF
THOSE DEFICITS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MUCH RAINFALL. QPF IS LIGHT
AND POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE TRAILING UPPER LOW IS
PRETTY SHARP AND WELL VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LIFT
AHEAD OF IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF US-127
MONDAY.

H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA BY
ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER HERE IN MICHIGAN.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PUSH IN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP.  A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS.  AT
THIS POINT THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY.  A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME COMMON
TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON LOCAL STREAMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 192346
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AFTER WHICH A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND FOCUS ON THE CLIPPER MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER A QUICK CHECK OF THE OBS SHOWS MOST OF IT AS VIRGA. THE PCPN
IS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT IS STILL IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
THE MOST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY.
HOWEVER THE WARM ADVECTION ISN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THE VALUE OF
THOSE DEFICITS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MUCH RAINFALL. QPF IS LIGHT
AND POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE TRAILING UPPER LOW IS
PRETTY SHARP AND WELL VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LIFT
AHEAD OF IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF US-127
MONDAY.

H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA BY
ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER HERE IN MICHIGAN.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PUSH IN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP.  A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS.  AT
THIS POINT THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY.  A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME COMMON
TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON LOCAL STREAMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 192346
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AFTER WHICH A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND FOCUS ON THE CLIPPER MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER A QUICK CHECK OF THE OBS SHOWS MOST OF IT AS VIRGA. THE PCPN
IS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT IS STILL IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
THE MOST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY.
HOWEVER THE WARM ADVECTION ISN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THE VALUE OF
THOSE DEFICITS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MUCH RAINFALL. QPF IS LIGHT
AND POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE TRAILING UPPER LOW IS
PRETTY SHARP AND WELL VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LIFT
AHEAD OF IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF US-127
MONDAY.

H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA BY
ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER HERE IN MICHIGAN.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PUSH IN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP.  A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS.  AT
THIS POINT THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY.  A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME COMMON
TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON LOCAL STREAMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 192346
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AFTER WHICH A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND FOCUS ON THE CLIPPER MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER A QUICK CHECK OF THE OBS SHOWS MOST OF IT AS VIRGA. THE PCPN
IS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT IS STILL IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
THE MOST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY.
HOWEVER THE WARM ADVECTION ISN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THE VALUE OF
THOSE DEFICITS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MUCH RAINFALL. QPF IS LIGHT
AND POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE TRAILING UPPER LOW IS
PRETTY SHARP AND WELL VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LIFT
AHEAD OF IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF US-127
MONDAY.

H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA BY
ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER HERE IN MICHIGAN.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PUSH IN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP.  A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS.  AT
THIS POINT THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY.  A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME COMMON
TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON LOCAL STREAMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 192346
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AFTER WHICH A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND FOCUS ON THE CLIPPER MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER A QUICK CHECK OF THE OBS SHOWS MOST OF IT AS VIRGA. THE PCPN
IS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT IS STILL IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
THE MOST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY.
HOWEVER THE WARM ADVECTION ISN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THE VALUE OF
THOSE DEFICITS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MUCH RAINFALL. QPF IS LIGHT
AND POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE TRAILING UPPER LOW IS
PRETTY SHARP AND WELL VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LIFT
AHEAD OF IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF US-127
MONDAY.

H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA BY
ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER HERE IN MICHIGAN.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PUSH IN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP.  A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS.  AT
THIS POINT THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY.  A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME COMMON
TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON LOCAL STREAMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93






000
FXUS63 KDTX 192317
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
717 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLF FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 192317
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
717 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLF FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 192317
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
717 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLF FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 192317
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
717 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLF FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM W TO EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING THRU MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM W TO EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING THRU MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 192300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM W TO EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING THRU MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 192300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM W TO EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING THRU MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KMQT 192255
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 192255
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 192255
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 192255
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 192255
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 192020
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 192020
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KAPX 192018
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE STCU ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT PLN. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AS ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ AND MIST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN INTO THE NW MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192018
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE STCU ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT PLN. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AS ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ AND MIST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN INTO THE NW MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192018
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE STCU ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT PLN. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AS ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ AND MIST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN INTO THE NW MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192018
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE STCU ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT PLN. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AS ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ AND MIST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN INTO THE NW MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KDTX 191938
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1238 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

//DISCUSSION...

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SOURCED LOW
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO MBS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 20 KFT)/DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
AREA. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 191938
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1238 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

//DISCUSSION...

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SOURCED LOW
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO MBS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 20 KFT)/DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
AREA. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KMQT 191923
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 191923
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KGRR 191910
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AFTER WHICH A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND FOCUS ON THE CLIPPER MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER A QUICK CHECK OF THE OBS SHOWS MOST OF IT AS VIRGA. THE PCPN
IS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT IS STILL IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
THE MOST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY.
HOWEVER THE WARM ADVECTION ISN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THE VALUE OF
THOSE DEFICITS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MUCH RAINFALL. QPF IS LIGHT
AND POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE TRAILING UPPER LOW IS
PRETTY SHARP AND WELL VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LIFT
AHEAD OF IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF US-127
MONDAY.

H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA BY
ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER HERE IN MICHIGAN.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PUSH IN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP.  A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS.  AT
THIS POINT THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY.  A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHWEST LOWER MI
TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
MORE SO THIS EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. AS
THE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER. RIGHT NOW I HAVE
MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT A RISK FOR IFR EXISTS. DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY IS WHEN THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMKG LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON LOCAL STREAMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93










000
FXUS63 KGRR 191910
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AFTER WHICH A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND FOCUS ON THE CLIPPER MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER A QUICK CHECK OF THE OBS SHOWS MOST OF IT AS VIRGA. THE PCPN
IS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT IS STILL IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
THE MOST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY.
HOWEVER THE WARM ADVECTION ISN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THE VALUE OF
THOSE DEFICITS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MUCH RAINFALL. QPF IS LIGHT
AND POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE TRAILING UPPER LOW IS
PRETTY SHARP AND WELL VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LIFT
AHEAD OF IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF US-127
MONDAY.

H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA BY
ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER HERE IN MICHIGAN.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PUSH IN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP.  A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS.  AT
THIS POINT THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY.  A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHWEST LOWER MI
TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
MORE SO THIS EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. AS
THE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER. RIGHT NOW I HAVE
MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT A RISK FOR IFR EXISTS. DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY IS WHEN THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMKG LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON LOCAL STREAMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KAPX 191749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...
BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, THE 500 MB PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS MORE ENERGY TRAVELS DOWN THE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
AS THE THIS ENERGY THAT IS TRAVELING DOWN THE 500 MB FLOW IN
MANITOBA HAS NOW DEVELOPED A SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH N MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY, AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 850 MB RH
<30% AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH < 30% THROUGH 18Z, MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT`S NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z THAT THE 500 MB ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FLOW A LITTLE BIT, AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z.
THE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL MAY HAVE
SHARPENED IT UP INTO A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT IS STILL LIMITED UNTIL THE SFC LOW CLOSES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIMITED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER.

TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
INCREASES AS THE 850 MB RH AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE BOTH
ABOVE 90% WITH THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW. THE RAIN
LOOKS LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC
LOW WILL RIDE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO E UPPER THIS WILL ALLOW
THE DRY SLOT TO TRAVEL IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND CUT OFF MOST OF THE
RAIN AFTER 06Z IN NW LOWER. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCY POPS AS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2C BY 12Z, AS WE GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOW CONSIDERABLY...GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY. A WEAKER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MAIN
TROF WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI MON
NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIP. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF...REACHING VA BY WED MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN SUPERIOR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN SECTIONS. THAT/S THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH.

MONDAY...1007 MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER
MI...AND WILL MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOWLY SE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE BRUCE
PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY TO OUR EAST AT DAYBREAK...BUT EXTENSIVE COLD CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS ACROSS NE LOWER...EASTERN UPPER...AND SUPERIOR...WHILE
A DRY SLOT IS MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER. THE DRY SLOT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER
TROF REACHES LAKE HURON. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND ARE NOT TERRIBLY
WET. MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIP IN THE WRAPAROUND ZONE...AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WET SIDE. THAT STILL ONLY
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
MI...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS SUFFICE.

HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIELD WILL
EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT...AND NE LOWER TUESDAY.
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS ON MON NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF THE MOIST SHIELD AND
ALSO PROVIDING SOME SEMBLANCE OF LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE IN NE LOWER (CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS AGAIN FROM
ROGERS TO APN AND OSC...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW). WILL HANG ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN NE LOWER MI TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL BE
DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN/
WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

STILL RATHER COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40F...AND MAX TEMPS MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL KEEP WED DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SEND
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE BUTTING INTO THE RIDGE
AND MAYBE FORCING A FEW SHRA ON THURSDAY. IN A FLIP-FLOP FROM
YESTERDAY...IT IS THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS IN GENERAL...WILL
GIVE THE GFS A (RARE) CHANCE TO BE CORRECT...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE
RUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THU AT THIS TIME. THAT EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO FLATTISH RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF IN TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS A
DRY AND MILD PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE STCU ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT PLN. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AS ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ AND MIST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN INTO THE NW MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SW NOW, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
LAKES HAVE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THEN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE, MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE ADJACENT TO
NW LOWER. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE. TONIGHT, THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN LAKE MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW DURING THE DAY AND PROBABLY
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE TIGHTENED UP ENOUGH TO GET LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JL






000
FXUS63 KAPX 191749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...
BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, THE 500 MB PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS MORE ENERGY TRAVELS DOWN THE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
AS THE THIS ENERGY THAT IS TRAVELING DOWN THE 500 MB FLOW IN
MANITOBA HAS NOW DEVELOPED A SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH N MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY, AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 850 MB RH
<30% AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH < 30% THROUGH 18Z, MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT`S NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z THAT THE 500 MB ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FLOW A LITTLE BIT, AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z.
THE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL MAY HAVE
SHARPENED IT UP INTO A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT IS STILL LIMITED UNTIL THE SFC LOW CLOSES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIMITED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER.

TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
INCREASES AS THE 850 MB RH AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE BOTH
ABOVE 90% WITH THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW. THE RAIN
LOOKS LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC
LOW WILL RIDE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO E UPPER THIS WILL ALLOW
THE DRY SLOT TO TRAVEL IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND CUT OFF MOST OF THE
RAIN AFTER 06Z IN NW LOWER. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCY POPS AS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2C BY 12Z, AS WE GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOW CONSIDERABLY...GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY. A WEAKER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MAIN
TROF WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI MON
NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIP. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF...REACHING VA BY WED MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN SUPERIOR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN SECTIONS. THAT/S THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH.

MONDAY...1007 MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER
MI...AND WILL MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOWLY SE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE BRUCE
PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY TO OUR EAST AT DAYBREAK...BUT EXTENSIVE COLD CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS ACROSS NE LOWER...EASTERN UPPER...AND SUPERIOR...WHILE
A DRY SLOT IS MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER. THE DRY SLOT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER
TROF REACHES LAKE HURON. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND ARE NOT TERRIBLY
WET. MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIP IN THE WRAPAROUND ZONE...AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WET SIDE. THAT STILL ONLY
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
MI...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS SUFFICE.

HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIELD WILL
EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT...AND NE LOWER TUESDAY.
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS ON MON NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF THE MOIST SHIELD AND
ALSO PROVIDING SOME SEMBLANCE OF LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE IN NE LOWER (CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS AGAIN FROM
ROGERS TO APN AND OSC...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW). WILL HANG ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN NE LOWER MI TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL BE
DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN/
WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

STILL RATHER COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40F...AND MAX TEMPS MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL KEEP WED DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SEND
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE BUTTING INTO THE RIDGE
AND MAYBE FORCING A FEW SHRA ON THURSDAY. IN A FLIP-FLOP FROM
YESTERDAY...IT IS THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS IN GENERAL...WILL
GIVE THE GFS A (RARE) CHANCE TO BE CORRECT...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE
RUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THU AT THIS TIME. THAT EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO FLATTISH RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF IN TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS A
DRY AND MILD PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE STCU ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT PLN. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AS ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ AND MIST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN INTO THE NW MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SW NOW, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
LAKES HAVE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THEN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE, MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE ADJACENT TO
NW LOWER. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE. TONIGHT, THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN LAKE MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW DURING THE DAY AND PROBABLY
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE TIGHTENED UP ENOUGH TO GET LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JL






000
FXUS63 KAPX 191749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...
BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, THE 500 MB PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS MORE ENERGY TRAVELS DOWN THE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
AS THE THIS ENERGY THAT IS TRAVELING DOWN THE 500 MB FLOW IN
MANITOBA HAS NOW DEVELOPED A SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH N MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY, AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 850 MB RH
<30% AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH < 30% THROUGH 18Z, MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT`S NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z THAT THE 500 MB ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FLOW A LITTLE BIT, AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z.
THE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL MAY HAVE
SHARPENED IT UP INTO A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT IS STILL LIMITED UNTIL THE SFC LOW CLOSES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIMITED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER.

TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
INCREASES AS THE 850 MB RH AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE BOTH
ABOVE 90% WITH THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW. THE RAIN
LOOKS LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC
LOW WILL RIDE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO E UPPER THIS WILL ALLOW
THE DRY SLOT TO TRAVEL IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND CUT OFF MOST OF THE
RAIN AFTER 06Z IN NW LOWER. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCY POPS AS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2C BY 12Z, AS WE GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOW CONSIDERABLY...GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY. A WEAKER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MAIN
TROF WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI MON
NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIP. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF...REACHING VA BY WED MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN SUPERIOR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN SECTIONS. THAT/S THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH.

MONDAY...1007 MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER
MI...AND WILL MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOWLY SE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE BRUCE
PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY TO OUR EAST AT DAYBREAK...BUT EXTENSIVE COLD CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS ACROSS NE LOWER...EASTERN UPPER...AND SUPERIOR...WHILE
A DRY SLOT IS MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER. THE DRY SLOT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER
TROF REACHES LAKE HURON. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND ARE NOT TERRIBLY
WET. MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIP IN THE WRAPAROUND ZONE...AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WET SIDE. THAT STILL ONLY
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
MI...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS SUFFICE.

HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIELD WILL
EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT...AND NE LOWER TUESDAY.
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS ON MON NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF THE MOIST SHIELD AND
ALSO PROVIDING SOME SEMBLANCE OF LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE IN NE LOWER (CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS AGAIN FROM
ROGERS TO APN AND OSC...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW). WILL HANG ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN NE LOWER MI TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL BE
DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN/
WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

STILL RATHER COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40F...AND MAX TEMPS MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL KEEP WED DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SEND
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE BUTTING INTO THE RIDGE
AND MAYBE FORCING A FEW SHRA ON THURSDAY. IN A FLIP-FLOP FROM
YESTERDAY...IT IS THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS IN GENERAL...WILL
GIVE THE GFS A (RARE) CHANCE TO BE CORRECT...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE
RUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THU AT THIS TIME. THAT EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO FLATTISH RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF IN TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS A
DRY AND MILD PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE STCU ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT PLN. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AS ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ AND MIST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN INTO THE NW MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SW NOW, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
LAKES HAVE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THEN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE, MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE ADJACENT TO
NW LOWER. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE. TONIGHT, THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN LAKE MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW DURING THE DAY AND PROBABLY
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE TIGHTENED UP ENOUGH TO GET LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JL






000
FXUS63 KAPX 191749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...
BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, THE 500 MB PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS MORE ENERGY TRAVELS DOWN THE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
AS THE THIS ENERGY THAT IS TRAVELING DOWN THE 500 MB FLOW IN
MANITOBA HAS NOW DEVELOPED A SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH N MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY, AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 850 MB RH
<30% AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH < 30% THROUGH 18Z, MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT`S NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z THAT THE 500 MB ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FLOW A LITTLE BIT, AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z.
THE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL MAY HAVE
SHARPENED IT UP INTO A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT IS STILL LIMITED UNTIL THE SFC LOW CLOSES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIMITED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER.

TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
INCREASES AS THE 850 MB RH AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE BOTH
ABOVE 90% WITH THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW. THE RAIN
LOOKS LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC
LOW WILL RIDE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO E UPPER THIS WILL ALLOW
THE DRY SLOT TO TRAVEL IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND CUT OFF MOST OF THE
RAIN AFTER 06Z IN NW LOWER. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCY POPS AS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2C BY 12Z, AS WE GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOW CONSIDERABLY...GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY. A WEAKER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MAIN
TROF WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI MON
NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIP. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF...REACHING VA BY WED MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN SUPERIOR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN SECTIONS. THAT/S THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH.

MONDAY...1007 MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER
MI...AND WILL MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOWLY SE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE BRUCE
PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY TO OUR EAST AT DAYBREAK...BUT EXTENSIVE COLD CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS ACROSS NE LOWER...EASTERN UPPER...AND SUPERIOR...WHILE
A DRY SLOT IS MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER. THE DRY SLOT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER
TROF REACHES LAKE HURON. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND ARE NOT TERRIBLY
WET. MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIP IN THE WRAPAROUND ZONE...AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WET SIDE. THAT STILL ONLY
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
MI...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS SUFFICE.

HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIELD WILL
EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT...AND NE LOWER TUESDAY.
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS ON MON NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF THE MOIST SHIELD AND
ALSO PROVIDING SOME SEMBLANCE OF LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE IN NE LOWER (CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS AGAIN FROM
ROGERS TO APN AND OSC...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW). WILL HANG ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN NE LOWER MI TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL BE
DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN/
WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

STILL RATHER COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40F...AND MAX TEMPS MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL KEEP WED DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SEND
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE BUTTING INTO THE RIDGE
AND MAYBE FORCING A FEW SHRA ON THURSDAY. IN A FLIP-FLOP FROM
YESTERDAY...IT IS THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS IN GENERAL...WILL
GIVE THE GFS A (RARE) CHANCE TO BE CORRECT...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE
RUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THU AT THIS TIME. THAT EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO FLATTISH RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF IN TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS A
DRY AND MILD PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE STCU ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT PLN. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AS ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ AND MIST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN INTO THE NW MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SW NOW, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
LAKES HAVE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THEN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE, MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE ADJACENT TO
NW LOWER. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE. TONIGHT, THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN LAKE MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW DURING THE DAY AND PROBABLY
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE TIGHTENED UP ENOUGH TO GET LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JL






000
FXUS63 KMQT 191733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 191733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KGRR 191724
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
124 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHWEST LOWER MI
TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
MORE SO THIS EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. AS
THE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER. RIGHT NOW I HAVE
MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT A RISK FOR IFR EXISTS. DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY IS WHEN THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMKG LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ON FARTHER CONSIDERATION...SINCE I EXPECT WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS... IT MAKES SENSE
TO GET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT. SO I HAVE NOW DONE JUST THAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND EXPECTED
TO FALL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN
A HALF INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 191724
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
124 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHWEST LOWER MI
TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
MORE SO THIS EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. AS
THE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER. RIGHT NOW I HAVE
MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT A RISK FOR IFR EXISTS. DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY IS WHEN THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMKG LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ON FARTHER CONSIDERATION...SINCE I EXPECT WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS... IT MAKES SENSE
TO GET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT. SO I HAVE NOW DONE JUST THAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND EXPECTED
TO FALL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN
A HALF INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KDTX 191638
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1238 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SOURCED LOW
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO MBS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 20 KFT)/DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
AREA. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FILTERED IN OVER THE
THUMB REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CLEAR UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO 900 MB HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...ENDING UP OVER THE SOO BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT A PREMIUM...WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INHIBITING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND OUT TO THE WEST THE THE ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MODELS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET CORE WILL PROMPT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
EJECTION AND DEEPENING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
LEAD WING OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING POST-DAYBREAK.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH THIS PROCESS...BUT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING PERIOD /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/.  RENEWED FORCING WILL EMERGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -23C RANGE DURING THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES AND
A PERIOD OF SOLID CVA.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONTAL TIMING
WILL YIELD ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WILL SUSTAIN AN UNSETTLED/CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  TROUGH AXIS
DEFINING THIS WIND SHIFT MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN
THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE HURON.

EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK.  NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.  THIS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL POSITION SE MICHIGAN FAVORABLY FOR SEEING AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF CONDITIONS DICTATED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE INCREASING THICKNESS FIELD WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 60
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.  POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30 KNOT
RANGE...WITH AT LEAST A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  CONFIDENCE IN GALES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 191638
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1238 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SOURCED LOW
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO MBS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 20 KFT)/DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
AREA. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FILTERED IN OVER THE
THUMB REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CLEAR UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO 900 MB HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...ENDING UP OVER THE SOO BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT A PREMIUM...WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INHIBITING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND OUT TO THE WEST THE THE ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MODELS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET CORE WILL PROMPT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
EJECTION AND DEEPENING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
LEAD WING OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING POST-DAYBREAK.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH THIS PROCESS...BUT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING PERIOD /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/.  RENEWED FORCING WILL EMERGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -23C RANGE DURING THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES AND
A PERIOD OF SOLID CVA.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONTAL TIMING
WILL YIELD ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WILL SUSTAIN AN UNSETTLED/CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  TROUGH AXIS
DEFINING THIS WIND SHIFT MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN
THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE HURON.

EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK.  NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.  THIS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL POSITION SE MICHIGAN FAVORABLY FOR SEEING AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF CONDITIONS DICTATED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE INCREASING THICKNESS FIELD WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 60
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.  POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30 KNOT
RANGE...WITH AT LEAST A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  CONFIDENCE IN GALES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 191624
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD STILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD INLAND TO MKG AND
GRR (14Z TILL 18Z). THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD LARGELY MISS
AZO...BTL...JXN AND LAN DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER.

TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN I EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT I TO BUT THESE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AS MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS LIMITED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ON FARTHER CONSIDERATION...SINCE I EXPECT WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS... IT MAKES SENSE
TO GET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT. SO I HAVE NOW DONE JUST THAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND EXPECTED
TO FALL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN
A HALF INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 191624
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD STILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD INLAND TO MKG AND
GRR (14Z TILL 18Z). THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD LARGELY MISS
AZO...BTL...JXN AND LAN DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER.

TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN I EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT I TO BUT THESE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AS MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS LIMITED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ON FARTHER CONSIDERATION...SINCE I EXPECT WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS... IT MAKES SENSE
TO GET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT. SO I HAVE NOW DONE JUST THAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND EXPECTED
TO FALL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN
A HALF INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 191624
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD STILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD INLAND TO MKG AND
GRR (14Z TILL 18Z). THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD LARGELY MISS
AZO...BTL...JXN AND LAN DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER.

TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN I EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT I TO BUT THESE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AS MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS LIMITED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ON FARTHER CONSIDERATION...SINCE I EXPECT WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS... IT MAKES SENSE
TO GET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT. SO I HAVE NOW DONE JUST THAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND EXPECTED
TO FALL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN
A HALF INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 191624
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD STILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD INLAND TO MKG AND
GRR (14Z TILL 18Z). THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD LARGELY MISS
AZO...BTL...JXN AND LAN DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER.

TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN I EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT I TO BUT THESE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AS MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS LIMITED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ON FARTHER CONSIDERATION...SINCE I EXPECT WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS... IT MAKES SENSE
TO GET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT. SO I HAVE NOW DONE JUST THAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND EXPECTED
TO FALL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN
A HALF INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KMQT 191140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR MOST OF THE TIME...VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW THIS AFTN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH THE RAIN. INCREASING MOISTURE IN LOW-LEVELS
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES. SOME LGT RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WELL. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 191140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR MOST OF THE TIME...VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW THIS AFTN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH THE RAIN. INCREASING MOISTURE IN LOW-LEVELS
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES. SOME LGT RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WELL. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KGRR 191119
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
719 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD STILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD INLAND TO MKG AND
GRR (14Z TILL 18Z). THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD LARGELY MISS
AZO...BTL...JXN AND LAN DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER.

TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN I EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT I TO BUT THESE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AS MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS LIMITED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ON FARTHER CONSIDERATION...SINCE I EXPECT WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS... IT MAKES SENSE
TO GET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT. SO I HAVE NOW DONE JUST THAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO... I
WOULD THINK OVERALL RIVER LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 191119
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
719 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD STILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD INLAND TO MKG AND
GRR (14Z TILL 18Z). THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD LARGELY MISS
AZO...BTL...JXN AND LAN DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER.

TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN I EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT I TO BUT THESE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AS MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS LIMITED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ON FARTHER CONSIDERATION...SINCE I EXPECT WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS... IT MAKES SENSE
TO GET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT. SO I HAVE NOW DONE JUST THAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO... I
WOULD THINK OVERALL RIVER LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KDTX 191101
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DRYING LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL THEN MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
AS A WARM FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  THIS MOISTURE MAY
RESULT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
INTERMITTENT MVFR AT MBS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FILTERED IN OVER THE
THUMB REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CLEAR UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO 900 MB HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...ENDING UP OVER THE SOO BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT A PREMIUM...WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INHIBITING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND OUT TO THE WEST THE THE ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MODELS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET CORE WILL PROMPT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
EJECTION AND DEEPENING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
LEAD WING OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING POST-DAYBREAK.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH THIS PROCESS...BUT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING PERIOD /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/.  RENEWED FORCING WILL EMERGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -23C RANGE DURING THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES AND
A PERIOD OF SOLID CVA.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONTAL TIMING
WILL YIELD ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WILL SUSTAIN AN UNSETTLED/CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  TROUGH AXIS
DEFINING THIS WIND SHIFT MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN
THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE HURON.

EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK.  NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.  THIS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL POSITION SE MICHIGAN FAVORABLY FOR SEEING AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF CONDITIONS DICTATED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE INCREASING THICKNESS FIELD WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 60
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.  POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30 KNOT
RANGE...WITH AT LEAST A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  CONFIDENCE IN GALES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 191101
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DRYING LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL THEN MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
AS A WARM FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  THIS MOISTURE MAY
RESULT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
INTERMITTENT MVFR AT MBS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FILTERED IN OVER THE
THUMB REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CLEAR UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO 900 MB HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...ENDING UP OVER THE SOO BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT A PREMIUM...WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INHIBITING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND OUT TO THE WEST THE THE ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MODELS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET CORE WILL PROMPT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
EJECTION AND DEEPENING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
LEAD WING OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING POST-DAYBREAK.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH THIS PROCESS...BUT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING PERIOD /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/.  RENEWED FORCING WILL EMERGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -23C RANGE DURING THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES AND
A PERIOD OF SOLID CVA.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONTAL TIMING
WILL YIELD ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WILL SUSTAIN AN UNSETTLED/CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  TROUGH AXIS
DEFINING THIS WIND SHIFT MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN
THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE HURON.

EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK.  NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.  THIS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL POSITION SE MICHIGAN FAVORABLY FOR SEEING AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF CONDITIONS DICTATED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE INCREASING THICKNESS FIELD WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 60
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.  POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30 KNOT
RANGE...WITH AT LEAST A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  CONFIDENCE IN GALES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KAPX 191058
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
658 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...
BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, THE 500 MB PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS MORE ENERGY TRAVELS DOWN THE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
AS THE THIS ENERGY THAT IS TRAVELING DOWN THE 500 MB FLOW IN
MANITOBA HAS NOW DEVELOPED A SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH N MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY, AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 850 MB RH
<30% AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH < 30% THROUGH 18Z, MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT`S NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z THAT THE 500 MB ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FLOW A LITTLE BIT, AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z.
THE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL MAY HAVE
SHARPENED IT UP INTO A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT IS STILL LIMITED UNTIL THE SFC LOW CLOSES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIMITED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER.

TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
INCREASES AS THE 850 MB RH AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE BOTH
ABOVE 90% WITH THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW. THE RAIN
LOOKS LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC
LOW WILL RIDE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO E UPPER THIS WILL ALLOW
THE DRY SLOT TO TRAVEL IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND CUT OFF MOST OF THE
RAIN AFTER 06Z IN NW LOWER. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCY POPS AS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2C BY 12Z, AS WE GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOW CONSIDERABLY...GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY. A WEAKER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MAIN
TROF WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI MON
NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIP. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF...REACHING VA BY WED MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN SUPERIOR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN SECTIONS. THAT/S THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH.

MONDAY...1007 MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER
MI...AND WILL MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOWLY SE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE BRUCE
PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY TO OUR EAST AT DAYBREAK...BUT EXTENSIVE COLD CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS ACROSS NE LOWER...EASTERN UPPER...AND SUPERIOR...WHILE
A DRY SLOT IS MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER. THE DRY SLOT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER
TROF REACHES LAKE HURON. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND ARE NOT TERRIBLY
WET. MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIP IN THE WRAPAROUND ZONE...AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WET SIDE. THAT STILL ONLY
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
MI...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS SUFFICE.

HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIELD WILL
EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT...AND NE LOWER TUESDAY.
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS ON MON NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF THE MOIST SHIELD AND
ALSO PROVIDING SOME SEMBLANCE OF LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE IN NE LOWER (CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS AGAIN FROM
ROGERS TO APN AND OSC...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW). WILL HANG ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN NE LOWER MI TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL BE
DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN/
WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

STILL RATHER COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40F...AND MAX TEMPS MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL KEEP WED DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SEND
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE BUTTING INTO THE RIDGE
AND MAYBE FORCING A FEW SHRA ON THURSDAY. IN A FLIP-FLOP FROM
YESTERDAY...IT IS THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS IN GENERAL...WILL
GIVE THE GFS A (RARE) CHANCE TO BE CORRECT...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE
RUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THU AT THIS TIME. THAT EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO FLATTISH RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF IN TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS A
DRY AND MILD PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT
IN -SHRA.

HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN IL IS EXTENDING RIDGING INTO LOWER MI.
SOME SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS LINGER IN NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH THESE ARE
TENDING TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. STILL...MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH THICKENING
HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT...BRINGING -SHRA AND LOWERING CIGS...
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

S TO SW WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SW NOW, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
LAKES HAVE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THEN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE, MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE ADJACENT TO
NW LOWER. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE. TONIGHT, THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN LAKE MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW DURING THE DAY AND PROBABLY
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE TIGHTENED UP ENOUGH TO GET LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL






000
FXUS63 KAPX 191058
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
658 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...
BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, THE 500 MB PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS MORE ENERGY TRAVELS DOWN THE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
AS THE THIS ENERGY THAT IS TRAVELING DOWN THE 500 MB FLOW IN
MANITOBA HAS NOW DEVELOPED A SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH N MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY, AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 850 MB RH
<30% AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH < 30% THROUGH 18Z, MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT`S NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z THAT THE 500 MB ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FLOW A LITTLE BIT, AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z.
THE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL MAY HAVE
SHARPENED IT UP INTO A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT IS STILL LIMITED UNTIL THE SFC LOW CLOSES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIMITED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER.

TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
INCREASES AS THE 850 MB RH AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE BOTH
ABOVE 90% WITH THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW. THE RAIN
LOOKS LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC
LOW WILL RIDE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO E UPPER THIS WILL ALLOW
THE DRY SLOT TO TRAVEL IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND CUT OFF MOST OF THE
RAIN AFTER 06Z IN NW LOWER. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCY POPS AS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2C BY 12Z, AS WE GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOW CONSIDERABLY...GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY. A WEAKER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MAIN
TROF WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI MON
NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIP. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF...REACHING VA BY WED MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN SUPERIOR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN SECTIONS. THAT/S THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH.

MONDAY...1007 MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER
MI...AND WILL MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOWLY SE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE BRUCE
PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY TO OUR EAST AT DAYBREAK...BUT EXTENSIVE COLD CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS ACROSS NE LOWER...EASTERN UPPER...AND SUPERIOR...WHILE
A DRY SLOT IS MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER. THE DRY SLOT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER
TROF REACHES LAKE HURON. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND ARE NOT TERRIBLY
WET. MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIP IN THE WRAPAROUND ZONE...AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WET SIDE. THAT STILL ONLY
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
MI...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS SUFFICE.

HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIELD WILL
EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT...AND NE LOWER TUESDAY.
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS ON MON NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF THE MOIST SHIELD AND
ALSO PROVIDING SOME SEMBLANCE OF LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE IN NE LOWER (CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS AGAIN FROM
ROGERS TO APN AND OSC...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW). WILL HANG ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN NE LOWER MI TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL BE
DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN/
WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

STILL RATHER COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40F...AND MAX TEMPS MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL KEEP WED DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SEND
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE BUTTING INTO THE RIDGE
AND MAYBE FORCING A FEW SHRA ON THURSDAY. IN A FLIP-FLOP FROM
YESTERDAY...IT IS THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS IN GENERAL...WILL
GIVE THE GFS A (RARE) CHANCE TO BE CORRECT...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE
RUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THU AT THIS TIME. THAT EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO FLATTISH RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF IN TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS A
DRY AND MILD PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT
IN -SHRA.

HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN IL IS EXTENDING RIDGING INTO LOWER MI.
SOME SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS LINGER IN NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH THESE ARE
TENDING TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. STILL...MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH THICKENING
HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT...BRINGING -SHRA AND LOWERING CIGS...
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

S TO SW WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SW NOW, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
LAKES HAVE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THEN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE, MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE ADJACENT TO
NW LOWER. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE. TONIGHT, THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN LAKE MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW DURING THE DAY AND PROBABLY
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE TIGHTENED UP ENOUGH TO GET LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190838
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
AOB 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ON FARTHER CONSIDERATING...SINCE I EXPECT WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS... IT MAKES SENSE
TO GET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVIOSRY OUT. SO I HAVE NOW DONE JUST THAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO... I
WOULD THINK OVERALL RIVER LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 190838
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
AOB 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ON FARTHER CONSIDERATING...SINCE I EXPECT WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS... IT MAKES SENSE
TO GET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVIOSRY OUT. SO I HAVE NOW DONE JUST THAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO... I
WOULD THINK OVERALL RIVER LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KMQT 190814
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 190814
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 190814
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 190814
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KDTX 190758
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FILTERED IN OVER THE
THUMB REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CLEAR UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO 900 MB HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...ENDING UP OVER THE SOO BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT A PREMIUM...WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INHIBITING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND OUT TO THE WEST THE THE ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MODELS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET CORE WILL PROMPT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
EJECTION AND DEEPENING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
LEAD WING OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING POST-DAYBREAK.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH THIS PROCESS...BUT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING PERIOD /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/.  RENEWED FORCING WILL EMERGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -23C RANGE DURING THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES AND
A PERIOD OF SOLID CVA.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONTAL TIMING
WILL YIELD ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WILL SUSTAIN AN UNSETTLED/CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  TROUGH AXIS
DEFINING THIS WIND SHIFT MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN
THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE HURON.

EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK.  NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.  THIS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL POSITION SE MICHIGAN FAVORABLY FOR SEEING AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF CONDITIONS DICTATED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE INCREASING THICKNESS FIELD WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 60
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.  POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30 KNOT
RANGE...WITH AT LEAST A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  CONFIDENCE IN GALES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 109 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

//DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE TAF SITES
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TAKEN
HOLD FROM FNT SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS MBS
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500 TO
3000 FT. EVEN THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN A FEW
HOURS AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY...ENDING THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SUNDAY WILL BE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY
AS RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR INTO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 190758
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FILTERED IN OVER THE
THUMB REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CLEAR UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO 900 MB HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...ENDING UP OVER THE SOO BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT A PREMIUM...WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INHIBITING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND OUT TO THE WEST THE THE ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MODELS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET CORE WILL PROMPT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
EJECTION AND DEEPENING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
LEAD WING OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING POST-DAYBREAK.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH THIS PROCESS...BUT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING PERIOD /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/.  RENEWED FORCING WILL EMERGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -23C RANGE DURING THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES AND
A PERIOD OF SOLID CVA.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONTAL TIMING
WILL YIELD ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WILL SUSTAIN AN UNSETTLED/CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  TROUGH AXIS
DEFINING THIS WIND SHIFT MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN
THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE HURON.

EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK.  NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.  THIS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL POSITION SE MICHIGAN FAVORABLY FOR SEEING AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF CONDITIONS DICTATED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE INCREASING THICKNESS FIELD WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 60
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.  POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30 KNOT
RANGE...WITH AT LEAST A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  CONFIDENCE IN GALES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 109 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

//DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE TAF SITES
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TAKEN
HOLD FROM FNT SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS MBS
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500 TO
3000 FT. EVEN THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN A FEW
HOURS AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY...ENDING THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SUNDAY WILL BE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY
AS RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR INTO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KAPX 190728
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
328 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...
BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, THE 500 MB PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS MORE ENERGY TRAVELS DOWN THE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
AS THE THIS ENERGY THAT IS TRAVELING DOWN THE 500 MB FLOW IN
MANITOBA HAS NOW DEVELOPED A SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH N MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY, AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 850 MB RH
<30% AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH < 30% THROUGH 18Z, MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT`S NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z THAT THE 500 MB ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FLOW A LITTLE BIT, AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z.
THE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL MAY HAVE
SHARPENED IT UP INTO A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT IS STILL LIMITED UNTIL THE SFC LOW CLOSES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIMITED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER.

TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
INCREASES AS THE 850 MB RH AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE BOTH
ABOVE 90% WITH THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW. THE RAIN
LOOKS LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC
LOW WILL RIDE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO E UPPER THIS WILL ALLOW
THE DRY SLOT TO TRAVEL IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND CUT OFF MOST OF THE
RAIN AFTER 06Z IN NW LOWER. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCY POPS AS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2C BY 12Z, AS WE GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOW CONSIDERABLY...GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY. A WEAKER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MAIN
TROF WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI MON
NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIP. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF...REACHING VA BY WED MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN SUPERIOR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN SECTIONS. THAT/S THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH.

MONDAY...1007 MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER
MI...AND WILL MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOWLY SE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE BRUCE
PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY TO OUR EAST AT DAYBREAK...BUT EXTENSIVE COLD CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS ACROSS NE LOWER...EASTERN UPPER...AND SUPERIOR...WHILE
A DRY SLOT IS MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER. THE DRY SLOT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER
TROF REACHES LAKE HURON. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND ARE NOT TERRIBLY
WET. MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIP IN THE WRAPAROUND ZONE...AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WET SIDE. THAT STILL ONLY
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
MI...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS SUFFICE.

HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIELD WILL
EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT...AND NE LOWER TUESDAY.
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS ON MON NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF THE MOIST SHIELD AND
ALSO PROVIDING SOME SEMBLANCE OF LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE IN NE LOWER (CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS AGAIN FROM
ROGERS TO APN AND OSC...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW). WILL HANG ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN NE LOWER MI TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL BE
DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN/
WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

STILL RATHER COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40F...AND MAX TEMPS MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL KEEP WED DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SEND
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE BUTTING INTO THE RIDGE
AND MAYBE FORCING A FEW SHRA ON THURSDAY. IN A FLIP-FLOP FROM
YESTERDAY...IT IS THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS IN GENERAL...WILL
GIVE THE GFS A (RARE) CHANCE TO BE CORRECT...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE
RUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THU AT THIS TIME. THAT EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO FLATTISH RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF IN TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS A
DRY AND MILD PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. APPEARS ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) AND AROUND 03Z FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN).
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SW NOW, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
LAKES HAVE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THEN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE, MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE ADJACENT TO
NW LOWER. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE. TONIGHT, THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN LAKE MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW DURING THE DAY AND PROBABLY
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE TIGHTENED UP ENOUGH TO GET LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ341-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190715
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
AOB 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I EXPUNGED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT SINCE THE
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR CALM AT MOST STATIONS. I DO EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIKELY WE
WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN OR MAYBE EVEN A MARGINAL
GALE WARNING. I WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DEAL WITH THAT SO AS TO TO
PUT HEADLINES ON TOP OF EACH OTHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO... I
WOULD THINK OVERALL RIVER LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190715
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
AOB 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I EXPUNGED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT SINCE THE
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR CALM AT MOST STATIONS. I DO EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIKELY WE
WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN OR MAYBE EVEN A MARGINAL
GALE WARNING. I WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DEAL WITH THAT SO AS TO TO
PUT HEADLINES ON TOP OF EACH OTHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO... I
WOULD THINK OVERALL RIVER LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KMQT 190659
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 190659
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 190659
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 190659
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 190545
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
145 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH POISED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ON SUN NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON MON.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THE ERN CWA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MONDAY IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z WED THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WHICH GETS FLATTENED A BIT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE TOP
OF IT ON THU. THIS PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z FRI AND 12Z SAT. THIS WILL STILL MEAN A DRY FORECAST
THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 190545
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
145 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH POISED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ON SUN NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON MON.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THE ERN CWA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MONDAY IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z WED THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WHICH GETS FLATTENED A BIT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE TOP
OF IT ON THU. THIS PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z FRI AND 12Z SAT. THIS WILL STILL MEAN A DRY FORECAST
THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 190545
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
145 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH POISED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ON SUN NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON MON.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THE ERN CWA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MONDAY IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z WED THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WHICH GETS FLATTENED A BIT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE TOP
OF IT ON THU. THIS PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z FRI AND 12Z SAT. THIS WILL STILL MEAN A DRY FORECAST
THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 190545
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
145 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH POISED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ON SUN NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON MON.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THE ERN CWA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MONDAY IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z WED THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WHICH GETS FLATTENED A BIT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE TOP
OF IT ON THU. THIS PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z FRI AND 12Z SAT. THIS WILL STILL MEAN A DRY FORECAST
THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KDTX 190509
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
109 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE TAF SITES
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TAKEN
HOLD FROM FNT SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS MBS
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500 TO
3000 FT. EVEN THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN A FEW
HOURS AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY...ENDING THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SUNDAY WILL BE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY
AS RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR INTO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 190509
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
109 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE TAF SITES
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TAKEN
HOLD FROM FNT SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS MBS
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500 TO
3000 FT. EVEN THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN A FEW
HOURS AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY...ENDING THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SUNDAY WILL BE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY
AS RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR INTO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KGRR 190440
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS LAKE HURON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGHS 55 TO 60 ARE EXPECTED
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO TO
THE STATE AND WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DISSIPATION CONTINUE. AS WINDS
DIMINISH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WITH THAT
IN MIND WE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KALAMAZOO COUNTIES.

SKIES WILL START OFF SUNNY TOMORROW...BUT A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN CHALLENGE
DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT OF
THIS LARGE SYSTEM...HERE IN MICHIGAN WE WILL SEE A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  THIS FAIR
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE CONDITIONS DRY.  A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WAVE IS SHOWN TO FALL APART AS IT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.  FOR
NOW I WILL KEEP IT DRY..BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

EARLY ON THE TEMPERATURES LOOK BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS WHEN THE 925 MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ON THURSDAY WITH SOME SUN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS SHOWN OVER AREA ON FRIDAY.  ASSUMING THE
TIMING IS CORRECT...THIS WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
AOB 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...93










000
FXUS63 KGRR 190440
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS LAKE HURON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGHS 55 TO 60 ARE EXPECTED
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO TO
THE STATE AND WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DISSIPATION CONTINUE. AS WINDS
DIMINISH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WITH THAT
IN MIND WE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KALAMAZOO COUNTIES.

SKIES WILL START OFF SUNNY TOMORROW...BUT A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN CHALLENGE
DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT OF
THIS LARGE SYSTEM...HERE IN MICHIGAN WE WILL SEE A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  THIS FAIR
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE CONDITIONS DRY.  A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WAVE IS SHOWN TO FALL APART AS IT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.  FOR
NOW I WILL KEEP IT DRY..BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

EARLY ON THE TEMPERATURES LOOK BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS WHEN THE 925 MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ON THURSDAY WITH SOME SUN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS SHOWN OVER AREA ON FRIDAY.  ASSUMING THE
TIMING IS CORRECT...THIS WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
AOB 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 190440
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS LAKE HURON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGHS 55 TO 60 ARE EXPECTED
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO TO
THE STATE AND WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DISSIPATION CONTINUE. AS WINDS
DIMINISH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WITH THAT
IN MIND WE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KALAMAZOO COUNTIES.

SKIES WILL START OFF SUNNY TOMORROW...BUT A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN CHALLENGE
DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT OF
THIS LARGE SYSTEM...HERE IN MICHIGAN WE WILL SEE A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  THIS FAIR
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE CONDITIONS DRY.  A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WAVE IS SHOWN TO FALL APART AS IT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.  FOR
NOW I WILL KEEP IT DRY..BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

EARLY ON THE TEMPERATURES LOOK BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS WHEN THE 925 MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ON THURSDAY WITH SOME SUN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS SHOWN OVER AREA ON FRIDAY.  ASSUMING THE
TIMING IS CORRECT...THIS WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
AOB 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 190440
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS LAKE HURON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGHS 55 TO 60 ARE EXPECTED
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO TO
THE STATE AND WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DISSIPATION CONTINUE. AS WINDS
DIMINISH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WITH THAT
IN MIND WE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KALAMAZOO COUNTIES.

SKIES WILL START OFF SUNNY TOMORROW...BUT A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN CHALLENGE
DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT OF
THIS LARGE SYSTEM...HERE IN MICHIGAN WE WILL SEE A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  THIS FAIR
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE CONDITIONS DRY.  A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WAVE IS SHOWN TO FALL APART AS IT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.  FOR
NOW I WILL KEEP IT DRY..BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

EARLY ON THE TEMPERATURES LOOK BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS WHEN THE 925 MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ON THURSDAY WITH SOME SUN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS SHOWN OVER AREA ON FRIDAY.  ASSUMING THE
TIMING IS CORRECT...THIS WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
AOB 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 190440
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS LAKE HURON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGHS 55 TO 60 ARE EXPECTED
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO TO
THE STATE AND WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DISSIPATION CONTINUE. AS WINDS
DIMINISH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WITH THAT
IN MIND WE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KALAMAZOO COUNTIES.

SKIES WILL START OFF SUNNY TOMORROW...BUT A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN CHALLENGE
DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT OF
THIS LARGE SYSTEM...HERE IN MICHIGAN WE WILL SEE A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  THIS FAIR
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE CONDITIONS DRY.  A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WAVE IS SHOWN TO FALL APART AS IT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.  FOR
NOW I WILL KEEP IT DRY..BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

EARLY ON THE TEMPERATURES LOOK BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS WHEN THE 925 MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ON THURSDAY WITH SOME SUN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS SHOWN OVER AREA ON FRIDAY.  ASSUMING THE
TIMING IS CORRECT...THIS WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
AOB 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KAPX 190345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. APPEARS ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) AND AROUND 03Z FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN).
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 190345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. APPEARS ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) AND AROUND 03Z FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN).
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 190345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. APPEARS ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) AND AROUND 03Z FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN).
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 190345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. APPEARS ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) AND AROUND 03Z FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN).
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 190345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. APPEARS ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) AND AROUND 03Z FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN).
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 190345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. APPEARS ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) AND AROUND 03Z FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN).
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






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