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000
FXUS63 KAPX 092028
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
328 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE LOWER LAKES
WITH SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  INVERTED TROUGH/SFC AXIS
EXTENDS UP ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT TODAY.  CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
A TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/ENHANCED SNOW TO LAKE EFFECT...WITH THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING UNDER STEADY COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND THEY ARE FINALLY GETTING COLD ENOUGH /SUFFICIENT
DELTA T/ TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ROBUST LAKE RESPONSE.  BEGINNING TO
SEE SIGNS OF THIS ON THE RADAR OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH AN
EVER INCREASING LAKE CONTRIBUTION.  THE END RESULT IS SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DBZ RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS GRADUAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS EAST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT FOCUS TOWARD THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH BEST ASCENT PEGGED WITHIN THE DGZ. ADD IN A NICE
LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION AND SOME HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS/BANDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN
TOWARD MANISTEE/CADILLAC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WITH SNOW RATIO/S ON THE ORDER
OF 20:1 /DRY SNOW/ AND WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH...POOR VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST THIS EVNEING WITH SOME
N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS IMPACTING AREAS FROM PREQUE ISLE
TO HARRISVILLE OVERNIGHT.  TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR...SNOWSHOWERS
CONTINUE BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
M-123.

HEADLINES...WILL LEAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
IN TACT.  I DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER WIDESPREAD WARNING
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.  BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS /LOW
VISIBILTIES/ WILL KEEP THE WARNING AS IS.  WILL TRIM THE ADVISORY
ENDING TIME ON THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY
BE TO LONG DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLIDES
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...COLD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING.

500MB TROF WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS
SOME RELAXATION IN THAT TROFFING IN THE LAKES REGION CENTERED ON THU
NIGHT...ONLY FOR A CLOSED LOW OR ARCTIC ORIGIN TO DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA ON FRI-SAT. THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE ABSENT THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. SO DON/T EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT TO RAGE TO THE DEGREE IT MIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW/TEMP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WED...DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENTERING NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES TO START. THE WAVE AXIS MARKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE EXITING NE LOWER MI AT 18Z.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE DESCENT AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ABOVE
6K FT BEHIND THE WAVE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
ABUNDANT...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER MINUS 20S. A NNW FETCH
REMAINS LOCKED IN...AND THOSE SNOWBELTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SHSN. HOWEVER...THE DRYING MID-LEVELS AND SHRINKING DGZ
(2500FT AND BELOW) WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SOME EXTENT. WILL GO WITH 2-
4 INCH ACCUMS IN NW LOWER... AND EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE/NE ALPENA COS.
WILL MENTION BLSN IN THESE AREAS...WINDS AREN/T TERRIBLY STRONG
(GUSTING TO 25-30MPH IN EXPOSED LOCALES)...BUT DRY/POWDERY SNOW WILL
BE PRONE TO BLOWING.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERAL
COLD BUT DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THAT WON/T HELP TEMPS MUCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

WED NIGHT/THU...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MI WED
NIGHT...WHILE SOME SHALLOW 500MB RIDGING ARRIVES ON NW FLOW THU. ALL
TOLD...MINIMAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/MOISTURE TO ASSIST LAKE EFFECT. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL DECAY THU AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE
WARMER GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE THE 1000-850MB WINDS BACK DECIDEDLY
THEN...FROM NNW (STILL) TO START THE DAY...TO ALMOST W BY THE END.
THIS WILL BE A DISRUPTING INFLUENCE TO ONGOING LAKE EFFECT...AND
ULTIMATELY SHORTENS THE LAKE FETCH DRASTICALLY. BUT...SLIGHT WARM
ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS CLIMB A TOUCH WARMER THAN -20C) PUTS US IN A
BETTER SPOT IN REGARDS TO A USABLE DGZ. WILL KEEP LES IN THE NNW
SNOWBELTS WED NIGHT...THEN PUSH THEM INLAND/EASTWARD THU. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...ANOTHER 2-4 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE WED NIGHT IN NW
LOWER. LESSER AMOUNTS THU (1-3)...WITH THE MAX AMOUNTS E OF GD TRAV
BAY AND IN WESTERN CHIP.

MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER TEENS (NW LOWER COAST) TO -5F (ST MARYS
VALLEY). MAX TEMPS TEENS.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POCKET OF ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW NO
MAJOR IMPACT. PRIMARY IMPACT IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM
HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN LAKES IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL THUS VEER AGAIN TO THE
NW...WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF (STRONGER) COLD ADVECTION. HEALTHY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE SNOWBELTS MIGRATING
WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS. NOT SEEING /LARGE/ ACCUMS...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME...WITH BRISK WINDS FRIDAY RETURNING BLSN AS WELL.

MIN TEMPS SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SET TO VARY
WIDELY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SINGLE -5 TO -10 F ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AS YOU HEAD NEAR THE BIG
LAKES. THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM +0-5 F AREA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE TOO SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO HIT THE ZERO MARK. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL
CERTAINLY RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING -20 TO -25 F OR
LOWER...PERHAPS WARRANTING A WIND CHILL HEADLINE AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ANOTHER BELOW ZERO NIGHT SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH RELAXING WINDS...COULD BE
EASILY DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
SOME MODERATING SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-20S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...N/NNW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST. NOT EXPECTING VERY BIG SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE AS SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS CREATE AN ISSUE WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION...AS IT STANDS
NOW...EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOWSHOWERS...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TVC/MBL WILL
SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. APN/PLN SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER
TOWARD THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KTS AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY
BE CLOSE. WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID ICE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-
     027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     024-030-036-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR



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000
FXUS63 KGRR 092017
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
317 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF DETROIT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE
LAKESHORE INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL VALUES AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORECASTED SNOW INTO THURSDAY.

THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. IMPACTS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH
SEVERAL SNOW BANDS CAUSING SLOW DOWNS NOTED ON INTERSTATE 196 AND
ROUTE 31. THE MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN UP THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE
UPPER PENINSULA...WHICH IS FORECASTED BY THE MODELS TO ARRIVE IN
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CONVERGENT NORTH
TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER THE LAKE AND DEEP MOISTURE...THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN. THE FLOW FAVORS THE REGION FROM HOLLAND TO AROUND
SOUTH HAVEN...AND ALSO THE AREA NORTH OF WHITEHALL FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE LOW WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW COUPLED WITH WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...SUPPORTS BLOWING SNOW. THUS THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACTS AND POSSIBLY NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO UNDER 7K FEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE UNFROZEN LAKE. LWA BUFKIT OVERVIEWS SHOW
THE STRONGEST LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ THEN. COMMONLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GREATEST IMPACTS STAYS RELATIVELY CLOSE
TO THE LAKESHORE. SO I WILL KEEP KENT AND BARRY COUNTIES OUT OF
THE HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE FLOW TURNS ON THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES. WILL
KEEP THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 10 AM...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING IMPACTS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE ENTIRE
WINTER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SAT. LAKE EFFECT MAY
BE A PLAYER FOR A BIT ON FRI...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME A NON-FACTOR
OVER THE WEEKEND.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN THE
CURRENT ONE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI. WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF BAND OF SNOW ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...WITH
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING NEAR THE LAKE.

THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR SAT...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR HERE. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT WE WILL SEE A NNE FLOW TAKE SHAPE. THIS WILL SEND MOST
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE LAKE AND TO THE WRN SIDE OF
IT. WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 10
ABOVE WITH AT LEAST SOME...IF NOT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

THE BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AS WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER CHC MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATE SUN. THIS WILL COME VIA A
MORE ORGANIZED NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS. THE TREND IS
FOR THE SRN STREAM TO BE SHUNTED FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. WITHOUT
GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SSE WIND...THIS
DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.

WE ARE LOOKING FOR MORE CHCS OF SNOW FOR MON AND TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
THESE CHCS ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW THIS FAR OUT WITH A LOT OF
SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
WE WILL GO WITH LOWER CHCS OF SNOW WITH MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE
TIME BEING WITH LOWER HEIGHTS REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STARTING TO RAMP UP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN. THE GENERAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FROM THE NNW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST THE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE MOST INTENSE BANDS WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF
ALL OF THE TERMINALS. KMKG AND KAZO WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY FROM SOME
OF THE BANDS...AND COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED IFR AFFECT THE
TERMINAL AT TIMES. MVFR WILL BE PREDOMINATE AND THE BRIEF AND
SPORADIC CHCS AT IFR ARE TOO UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE SMALL SCALE OF
THE BANDS.

WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY PICK UP
AGAIN LATE WED MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH INLAND
AREAS AS MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL RETURN THERE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OUT ON LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. FREEZING SPRAY
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT AS
EXPECTED. REALISTICALLY...THE RATE AT WHICH IT IS FALLING MAY
ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED BY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY THEN SHIFTS TO
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ICE BUILD UP
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SEEMS TO MAKE IT
IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND SOME AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY ASSIST IN ICE FORMATION FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS...BECOMING
MORE OF A FOCUS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RUNOFF. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STAY HUGGED ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BORDERING COUNTIES AND OTHER AREAS TYPICAL OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL JUST BE A DELAYED CONCERN IF ADDITIONAL
LIQUID MOISTURE IS RECEIVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FOR NOW...THE
TOTALS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK ARE ONLY LOCALLY HIGH NEAR THE
LAKE WITH AREA WIDE AVERAGES STAYING RELATIVELY LOW WHEN
CONSIDERING THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THE EVENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050-
     072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 091949
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
249 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.  COLDER AIR WILL POUR IN OVER THE LAKE
GIVING THE LAKESHORE AREAS A PROLONG PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE OVER SIX INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND IT WILL ALSO BECOME
COLD...BUT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 20 ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND.

IT SHOULD STAY COLD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL COME WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

I ENDED UP UPGRADING MOST OF THE LAKESHORE TO A WARNING AND
EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE KALAMAZOO.

GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW...LONG
FETCH...SATURATED DGZ AND MIXING HEIGHTS TAPING INTO THE 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS...FEEL THAT THIS COULD END UP MORE OF A HIGHER IMPACT
EVENT NEAR THE LAKESHORE. SOME MESOSCALE MODELS NOW TRY TO
GENERATE MORE THAN A INCH OF QPF BY THU MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE
RATIOS...MUCH OF THE LAKESHORE SHOULD SEE MORE THAN A FOOT. I DID
MOVE UP THE START TIME OF THE EVENT AS THE SNOW BANDS WERE ALREADY
DEVELOPING SO INCREASING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY CLOSELY AS THE
WESTERN END OF THE COUNTY MAY END UP WITH SOME HIGHER IMPACTS.

FOR NOW OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STEADIER SNOW. WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST...WILL
NOT GO WITH HEADLINES THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE TODAY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE A
DOMINATE BAND SET UP WHICH COULD BRING DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL BEFORE
ITS DIMINISHES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COLDER H8 AIR ARRIVES TOWARD MID DAY TODAY WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL RAMP UP.  WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS...STARTING AT
4PM...BUT THE STEADIER SNOWS COULD KICK IN SHORTLY AFTER NOON.  THE
MAIN THING IS THAT THE WORD IS OUT.

WITH H8 TEMPS OF -16C MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
TO LIGHT UP.  MOISTEN DEPTH IS SOLID WITH INVERSION LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE 8K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  THE PEAK OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY WHEN
THERE IS LITTLE TO INHIBIT INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS THAT MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS
APPEAR TO STAY ROCK SOLID...FROM 330-340 TODAY ALL THE WAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD DOMINATE BANDS THAT WON/T WAVER
MUCH. SIX-PLUS INCHES CERTAINLY LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TWELVE INCH
REPORTS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THIS...WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  THIS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIME.  THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWS...ROUGHLY
NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE
MAY NEED TO BUMP SOME OF THE LAKESHORE INTO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES INTO LATE TODAY.

FURTHER INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW  OVER NW OHIO KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
A SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW.  EXPECTING A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  INLAND SNOWS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST SNOW LINGERING ONLY
OVER THE LAKESHORE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE SNOW WILL
COME FROM A SEVERAL DIFFERENT METHODS...WHILE THE COLD WILL BE
PREVALENT AND LIKELY SOME OF THE COLDEST WE/VE SEEN THIS WINTER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO AN UNSTABLE LAKE
ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AFTER A LULL ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE LAKESHORE.

ON FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AREA WIDE. ACCUMULATIONS INLAND WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. TOWARDS THE LAKE...THE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES
POTENTIALLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR POURS IN. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO
NEAR -26C SATURDAY AT 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE MORE
THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
MAINLY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
DIMINISHING IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BRING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY. AT
THIS POINT HAVE CHANCE POPS 30-40 PCT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW. NOT CONFIDENT HOW THE SUN/MON LOW WILL PLAY OUT AT THIS
POINT THOUGH.

BOTTOM LINE...COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WITH POOR
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE. SNOW PACKED AND SLIPPERY
ROADS EXPECTED IN THE LAKE SNOW BELTS GIVEN THE VERY COLD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STARTING TO RAMP UP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN. THE GENERAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FROM THE NNW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST THE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE MOST INTENSE BANDS WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF
ALL OF THE TERMINALS. KMKG AND KAZO WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY FROM SOME
OF THE BANDS...AND COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED IFR AFFECT THE
TERMINAL AT TIMES. MVFR WILL BE PREDOMINATE AND THE BRIEF AND
SPORADIC CHCS AT IFR ARE TOO UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE SMALL SCALE OF
THE BANDS.

WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY PICK UP
AGAIN LATE WED MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH INLAND
AREAS AS MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL RETURN THERE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WILL BUMP THE AREAS NORTH OF WHITEHALL INTO A GALE WARNING.  THIS IS
A LOW END GALE...BUT WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING.  FREEZING SPRAY WILL
ALSO BE ON THE MODERATE SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT AS
EXPECTED. REALISTICALLY...THE RATE AT WHICH IT IS FALLING MAY
ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED BY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY THEN SHIFTS TO
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ICE BUILD UP
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SEEMS TO MAKE IT
IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND SOME AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY ASSIST IN ICE FORMATION FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS...BECOMING
MORE OF A FOCUS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RUNOFF. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STAY HUGGED ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BORDERING COUNTIES AND OTHER AREAS TYPICAL OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL JUST BE A DELAYED CONCERN IF ADDITIONAL
LIQUID MOISTURE IS RECEIVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FOR NOW...THE
TOTALS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK ARE ONLY LOCALLY HIGH NEAR THE
LAKE WITH AREA WIDE AVERAGES STAYING RELATIVELY LOW WHEN
CONSIDERING THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THE EVENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050-
     072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMQT 091945
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
245 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. NAM
SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING
OUT OF THE ERN CWA TONIGHT.

WINDS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH AND NEITHER DOES THE COLD AIR AMOUNT
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SO PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH
THIS FORECAST. LOOKED AT 950 MB CONVERGENCE WINDS AND THEY STAY
STRONG UNTIL WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ACROSS MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES AND FOR THIS
REASON...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR ALGER AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES
UNTIL 00Z WED AND WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR ONTONAGON AND GOGEBIC
COUNTIES AND KEEP NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH THEN. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...INVERSION
HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW 500 FEET THROUGH THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
EXCEPT DID BUMP UP SNOW AND QPF AMOUNTS A BIT IN NORTHERLY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BELTS AND HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALSO LINGERING...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. NEXT GALES LOOK TO BE THU NIGHT AND FRI ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVE IN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP AGAIN. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE
HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY INTO WED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 091752
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1252 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016


.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND A VERY DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED TO PRODUCE A LARGE SWATH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY BAND HAS STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL THUMB BUT A SECONDARY BAND
HAS ALIGNED FROM MBS...TO FNT...TO PTK. THIS BAND WILL RESULT IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME DROPS TO LIFR WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THE DETROIT AREA TAFS WILL PRIMARILY BE LOW MVFR BUT
COULD DIP TO HIGH IFR AT TIMES AS IT HOVER AROUND 3SM IN LIGHTER SNOW
SHOWERS. DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. A SECOND AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER WISCONSIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW... THE TERMINAL LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WHICH MEANS IT COULD SEE SOME RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR ALTHOUGH A FEW DIPS TO IFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A FEW MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW EXIST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD AND
DIURNAL SHOWERS INITIATE TOMORROW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING NORTHWEST CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1101 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE...

VERY PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS PARKED ALONG A SEBEWAING TO
PORT HURON LINE /PER KDTX AND EXETER RADARS/. SNOW TOTALS AROUND
7 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN
TUSCOLA...WESTERN SANILAC...AND NORTHERN ST CLAIR COUNTIES.
EXPECT THIS BAND WILL MAINTAIN STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS...AS IT APPEARS TO BE LOCKED IN WITH THE SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS APPROACHING 10 INCHES. REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE...

INTEGRITY OF SPIRAL BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN REMAINS RATHER HIGH. THESE BANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE
OVERACHIEVING NATURE OF THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE PROSPECTS
CONMTINUE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF M-59...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE DETROIT METRO REGION.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE EXPANDED
AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE INITIALLY ADVISORY AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

A 999MB SURFACE LOW NEAR EXETER, ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN BY ANOTHER MB OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EMBEDDED
ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ONGOING ADVISORY EVENT IS
PANNING OUT IN REASONABLE FASHION AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING HEADLINE.

0730Z RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS BAND IS BEING
FORCED BY THE LEAD EDGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, REACHING
THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 6AM AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-
MORNING. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL REPRESENT THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT
SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE NE CWA.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AN INLAND ADJUSTMENT OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HURON, TUSCOLA, AND SANILAC COUNTIES. RADAR
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. BROAD ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW FROM ONTARIO TO LAKE HURON. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROWAL. FAR FROM A CLASSIC
TROWAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION, AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS REGION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL IR
AND WV. THE SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK FGEN ALONG THE TROWAL`S BACK EDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SHOW A SLOW CYCLONIC PIVOT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND IT
IS WITHIN THIS AXIS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, DISTANCE FROM THE RADAR, LACK OF REPORTS, AND A VOID
IN SURFACE OBS IS SEVERELY LIMITING DIAGNOSIS OF ACTUAL SNOW
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM HANDLED THE RELEVANT FEATURES WELL,
ITS QPF OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL. THAT HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z
NAM, WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE IN SPATIAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AND
CORRELATION WITH RELEVANT FEATURES. IT WILL REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROWAL, OR WHAT
REMAINS OF IT AFTER THE CIRCULATION OPENS, WILL RAPIDLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF 8 MILE. TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE LAKE ENHANCED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
FEATURE WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY
FALLING IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE LAKE 12-18Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ROBUST, THOUGH STILL
MODEST, OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HAVE A CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH BEFORE IT PIVOTS ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE WORTH MONITORING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW WILL BE ON THE TABLE
FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW THEN TAKES OVER
AS THE OPEN WAVE EXITS RESULTING IN A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 00Z.

THE STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -2C AT PRESENT TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUING IN WEAK FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO 20 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AS THE DGZ WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WRT ICE BEFORE LINGERING
MOISTURE EXITS LATE. NW FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PURE LES POTENTIAL,
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WILL FAVOR MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERIOR-
MICHIGAN BAND STRETCHING INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
A STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP LOWS EASILY ABOVE MODELED VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RAISED LOWS WED NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.

EDGEWAVE RACING EAST ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SUBZERO LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND -15 WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME. UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY,
THIS INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LONG
GONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SQUALLS AND INCREASING
NORTH WIND AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. A WIND HEADLINE
IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE INCREASED WIND AND LONG NORTHERLY FETCH
WILL BUILD WAVE ACTION WELL INTO CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY. THE NORTH WIND WILL ALSO BRING
A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW SQUALLS AND SUPPORT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FREEZING
SPRAY POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047-048-
     053-060>062-068>070.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-055-
     063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
UPDATE.......MANN
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 091744
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1244 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.  COLDER AIR WILL POUR IN OVER THE LAKE
GIVING THE LAKESHORE AREAS A PROLONG PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE OVER SIX INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND IT WILL ALSO BECOME
COLD...BUT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 20 ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND.

IT SHOULD STAY COLD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL COME WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

I ENDED UP UPGRADING MOST OF THE LAKESHORE TO A WARNING AND
EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE KALAMAZOO.

GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW...LONG
FETCH...SATURATED DGZ AND MIXING HEIGHTS TAPING INTO THE 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS...FEEL THAT THIS COULD END UP MORE OF A HIGHER IMPACT
EVENT NEAR THE LAKESHORE. SOME MESOSCALE MODELS NOW TRY TO
GENERATE MORE THAN A INCH OF QPF BY THU MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE
RATIOS...MUCH OF THE LAKESHORE SHOULD SEE MORE THAN A FOOT. I DID
MOVE UP THE START TIME OF THE EVENT AS THE SNOW BANDS WERE ALREADY
DEVELOPING SO INCREASING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY CLOSELY AS THE
WESTERN END OF THE COUNTY MAY END UP WITH SOME HIGHER IMPACTS.

FOR NOW OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STEADIER SNOW. WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST...WILL
NOT GO WITH HEADLINES THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE TODAY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE A
DOMINATE BAND SET UP WHICH COULD BRING DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL BEFORE
ITS DIMINISHES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COLDER H8 AIR ARRIVES TOWARD MID DAY TODAY WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL RAMP UP.  WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS...STARTING AT
4PM...BUT THE STEADIER SNOWS COULD KICK IN SHORTLY AFTER NOON.  THE
MAIN THING IS THAT THE WORD IS OUT.

WITH H8 TEMPS OF -16C MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
TO LIGHT UP.  MOISTEN DEPTH IS SOLID WITH INVERSION LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE 8K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  THE PEAK OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY WHEN
THERE IS LITTLE TO INHIBIT INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS THAT MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS
APPEAR TO STAY ROCK SOLID...FROM 330-340 TODAY ALL THE WAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD DOMINATE BANDS THAT WON/T WAVER
MUCH. SIX-PLUS INCHES CERTAINLY LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TWELVE INCH
REPORTS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THIS...WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  THIS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIME.  THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWS...ROUGHLY
NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE
MAY NEED TO BUMP SOME OF THE LAKESHORE INTO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES INTO LATE TODAY.

FURTHER INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW  OVER NW OHIO KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
A SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW.  EXPECTING A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  INLAND SNOWS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST SNOW LINGERING ONLY
OVER THE LAKESHORE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE SNOW WILL
COME FROM A SEVERAL DIFFERENT METHODS...WHILE THE COLD WILL BE
PREVALENT AND LIKELY SOME OF THE COLDEST WE/VE SEEN THIS WINTER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO AN UNSTABLE LAKE
ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AFTER A LULL ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE LAKESHORE.

ON FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AREA WIDE. ACCUMULATIONS INLAND WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. TOWARDS THE LAKE...THE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES
POTENTIALLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR POURS IN. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO
NEAR -26C SATURDAY AT 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE MORE
THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
MAINLY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
DIMINISHING IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BRING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY. AT
THIS POINT HAVE CHANCE POPS 30-40 PCT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW. NOT CONFIDENT HOW THE SUN/MON LOW WILL PLAY OUT AT THIS
POINT THOUGH.

BOTTOM LINE...COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WITH POOR
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE. SNOW PACKED AND SLIPPERY
ROADS EXPECTED IN THE LAKE SNOW BELTS GIVEN THE VERY COLD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF STARTING TO RAMP UP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN. THE GENERAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FROM THE NNW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST THE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE MOST INTENSE BANDS WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF
ALL OF THE TERMINALS. KMKG AND KAZO WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY FROM SOME
OF THE BANDS...AND COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED IFR AFFECT THE
TERMINAL AT TIMES. MVFR WILL BE PREDOMINATE AND THE BRIEF AND
SPORADIC CHCS AT IFR ARE TOO UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE SMALL SCALE OF
THE BANDS.

WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY PICK UP
AGAIN LATE WED MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH INLAND
AREAS AS MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL RETURN THERE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WILL BUMP THE AREAS NORTH OF WHITEHALL INTO A GALE WARNING.  THIS IS
A LOW END GALE...BUT WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING.  FREEZING SPRAY WILL
ALSO BE ON THE MODERATE SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050-
     072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KAPX 091719
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1219 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOT GOING ON THIS MORNING WITH RETROGRADING PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WORKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS BEGIN
TO RAMP UP OFF OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS
STILL BACKED NW OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF ENHANCEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SEEDS
DEVELOPING LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WINDS
WILL VEER MORE N-NW WITH DELTA T/S CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
ALONG/WEST OF US-131 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND WEST OF M-123 IN
EASTERN UPPER. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HEAVIER SNOWS ALONG
THE LAKE HURON COAST ASSOCIATED WITH OUR MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
SHIELD. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

HEADLINES...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY HEADLINE CHANGES. THE WARNING
LIKELY GOES INTO EFFECT A BIT EARLY BUT SINCE THERE WILL BE SNOW
IN THE AIR AND GUSTY WINDS...HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY WON/T BEGIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOWS ALSO
CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST...WHERE A FEW ADDITIONAL
INCHES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOWSHOWERS...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TVC/MBL WILL
SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. APN/PLN SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER
TOWARD THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KTS AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 091719
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1219 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOT GOING ON THIS MORNING WITH RETROGRADING PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WORKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS BEGIN
TO RAMP UP OFF OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS
STILL BACKED NW OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF ENHANCEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SEEDS
DEVELOPING LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WINDS
WILL VEER MORE N-NW WITH DELTA T/S CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
ALONG/WEST OF US-131 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND WEST OF M-123 IN
EASTERN UPPER. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HEAVIER SNOWS ALONG
THE LAKE HURON COAST ASSOCIATED WITH OUR MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
SHIELD. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

HEADLINES...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY HEADLINE CHANGES. THE WARNING
LIKELY GOES INTO EFFECT A BIT EARLY BUT SINCE THERE WILL BE SNOW
IN THE AIR AND GUSTY WINDS...HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY WON/T BEGIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOWS ALSO
CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST...WHERE A FEW ADDITIONAL
INCHES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOWSHOWERS...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TVC/MBL WILL
SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. APN/PLN SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER
TOWARD THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KTS AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 091719
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1219 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOT GOING ON THIS MORNING WITH RETROGRADING PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WORKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS BEGIN
TO RAMP UP OFF OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS
STILL BACKED NW OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF ENHANCEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SEEDS
DEVELOPING LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WINDS
WILL VEER MORE N-NW WITH DELTA T/S CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
ALONG/WEST OF US-131 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND WEST OF M-123 IN
EASTERN UPPER. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HEAVIER SNOWS ALONG
THE LAKE HURON COAST ASSOCIATED WITH OUR MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
SHIELD. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

HEADLINES...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY HEADLINE CHANGES. THE WARNING
LIKELY GOES INTO EFFECT A BIT EARLY BUT SINCE THERE WILL BE SNOW
IN THE AIR AND GUSTY WINDS...HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY WON/T BEGIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOWS ALSO
CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST...WHERE A FEW ADDITIONAL
INCHES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOWSHOWERS...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TVC/MBL WILL
SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. APN/PLN SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER
TOWARD THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KTS AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...ADAM



000
FXUS63 KMQT 091649
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1149 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...STRONG NRLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE HURON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -22C AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANTY 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUPPORTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES INTO THE WRN CWA NEAR IWD WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS
STRONGEST. LES ALSO CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI BUT WAS
NOT AS HEAVY.

TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4K FT. SO...WITH DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING/ADVISORIES EXPIRATION OF
21Z LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER LES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...EXPECT LES WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLSN. AN ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE WEST HALF TO THE LOW 20S AND EAST.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL HELP BOOST SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGER
FETCHAND WHERE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE.
LAND BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONV INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DGZ
LOWERING CLOSER TO THE SFC AND GREATER DRYING...EXPECT MAINLY 1 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5F RANGE WEST
AND 5 TO 10 EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALSO LINGERING...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

 THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE HURON WILL EXIT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED N WINDS TO 20
TO 30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
E HALF. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
SPRAY INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA
OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 091606
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1106 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.  COLDER AIR WILL POUR IN OVER THE LAKE
GIVING THE LAKESHORE AREAS A PROLONG PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE OVER SIX INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND IT WILL ALSO BECOME
COLD...BUT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 20 ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND.

IT SHOULD STAY COLD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL COME WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

I ENDED UP UPGRADING MOST OF THE LAKESHORE TO A WARNING AND
EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE KALAMAZOO.

GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW...LONG
FETCH...SATURATED DGZ AND MIXING HEIGHTS TAPING INTO THE 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS...FEEL THAT THIS COULD END UP MORE OF A HIGHER IMPACT
EVENT NEAR THE LAKESHORE. SOME MESOSCALE MODELS NOW TRY TO
GENERATE MORE THAN A INCH OF QPF BY THU MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE
RATIOS...MUCH OF THE LAKESHORE SHOULD SEE MORE THAN A FOOT. I DID
MOVE UP THE START TIME OF THE EVENT AS THE SNOW BANDS WERE ALREADY
DEVELOPING SO INCREASING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY CLOSELY AS THE
WESTERN END OF THE COUNTY MAY END UP WITH SOME HIGHER IMPACTS.

FOR NOW OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STEADIER SNOW. WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST...WILL
NOT GO WITH HEADLINES THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.




&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE TODAY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE A
DOMINATE BAND SET UP WHICH COULD BRING DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL BEFORE
ITS DIMINISHES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COLDER H8 AIR ARRIVES TOWARD MID DAY TODAY WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL RAMP UP.  WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS...STARTING AT
4PM...BUT THE STEADIER SNOWS COULD KICK IN SHORTLY AFTER NOON.  THE
MAIN THING IS THAT THE WORD IS OUT.

WITH H8 TEMPS OF -16C MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
TO LIGHT UP.  MOISTEN DEPTH IS SOLID WITH INVERSION LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE 8K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  THE PEAK OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY WHEN
THERE IS LITTLE TO INHIBIT INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS THAT MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS
APPEAR TO STAY ROCK SOLID...FROM 330-340 TODAY ALL THE WAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD DOMINATE BANDS THAT WON/T WAVER
MUCH. SIX-PLUS INCHES CERTAINLY LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TWELVE INCH
REPORTS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THIS...WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  THIS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIME.  THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWS...ROUGHLY
NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE
MAY NEED TO BUMP SOME OF THE LAKESHORE INTO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES INTO LATE TODAY.

FURTHER INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW  OVER NW OHIO KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
A SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW.  EXPECTING A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  INLAND SNOWS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST SNOW LINGERING ONLY
OVER THE LAKESHORE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE SNOW WILL
COME FROM A SEVERAL DIFFERENT METHODS...WHILE THE COLD WILL BE
PREVALENT AND LIKELY SOME OF THE COLDEST WE/VE SEEN THIS WINTER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO AN UNSTABLE LAKE
ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AFTER A LULL ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE LAKESHORE.

ON FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AREA WIDE. ACCUMULATIONS INLAND WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. TOWARDS THE LAKE...THE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES
POTENTIALLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR POURS IN. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO
NEAR -26C SATURDAY AT 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE MORE
THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
MAINLY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
DIMINISHING IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BRING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY. AT
THIS POINT HAVE CHANCE POPS 30-40 PCT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW. NOT CONFIDENT HOW THE SUN/MON LOW WILL PLAY OUT AT THIS
POINT THOUGH.

BOTTOM LINE...COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WITH POOR
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE. SNOW PACKED AND SLIPPERY
ROADS EXPECTED IN THE LAKE SNOW BELTS GIVEN THE VERY COLD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SOME SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT KJXN AND KLAN THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MIDDAY. IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 18Z.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ORGANIZE TODAY AND BECOME HEAVY TONIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY MISS THE TAF SITES...AFFECTING THE
LUDINGTON AND SOUTH HAVEN AREAS MORE SO THAN MUSKEGON AND
KALAMAZOO. THE WIND DIRECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW WILL BE
FROM 330 DEGREES SO INLAND TAF SITES WILL MOSTLY BE SPARED.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT KMKG AND
KAZO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10-25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WILL BUMP THE AREAS NORTH OF WHITEHALL INTO A GALE WARNING.  THIS IS
A LOW END GALE...BUT WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING.  FREEZING SPRAY WILL
ALSO BE ON THE MODERATE SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050-
     072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KDTX 091601
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1101 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

VERY PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS PARKED ALONG A SEBEWAING TO
PORT HURON LINE /PER KDTX AND EXETER RADARS/. SNOW TOTALS AROUND
7 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN
TUSCOLA...WESTERN SANILAC...AND NORTHERN ST CLAIR COUNTIES.
EXPECT THIS BAND WILL MAINTAIN STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS...AS IT APPEARS TO BE LOCKED IN WITH THE SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS APPROACHING 10 INCHES. REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 702 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW BECAME FOCUSED ON A SURFACE TROUGH AND SWUNG
THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP IN THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON FEEDS BANDS OF SNOW INTO THE
MBS-FNT-PTK REGION. EXPECT THIS AREA TO REMAIN IFR FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PTK...BUT
TIMING AND DURATION OF BREAKS HAS VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY AND WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SHORT TERM UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY. THE RELATIVE
BREAK IN THE SNOW PATTERN OBSERVED OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER SE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO. THE AREA OF SNOW
OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW... BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID MORNING AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING LATE MORNING
WHILE CEILING REMAINS MVFR. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF SNOW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO UPDATE
AS OBSERVATIONS REVEAL BETTER TIMING ON SMALLER SCALE MOVING DOWN
FROM THE THUMB REGION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING NORTHWEST CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE...

INTEGRITY OF SPIRAL BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN REMAINS RATHER HIGH. THESE BANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE
OVERACHIEVING NATURE OF THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE PROSPECTS
CONMTINUE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF M-59...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE DETROIT METRO REGION.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE EXPANDED
AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE INITIALLY ADVISORY AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

A 999MB SURFACE LOW NEAR EXETER, ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN BY ANOTHER MB OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EMBEDDED
ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ONGOING ADVISORY EVENT IS
PANNING OUT IN REASONABLE FASHION AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING HEADLINE.

0730Z RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS BAND IS BEING
FORCED BY THE LEAD EDGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, REACHING
THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 6AM AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-
MORNING. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL REPRESENT THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT
SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE NE CWA.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AN INLAND ADJUSTMENT OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HURON, TUSCOLA, AND SANILAC COUNTIES. RADAR
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. BROAD ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW FROM ONTARIO TO LAKE HURON. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROWAL. FAR FROM A CLASSIC
TROWAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION, AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS REGION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL IR
AND WV. THE SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK FGEN ALONG THE TROWAL`S BACK EDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SHOW A SLOW CYCLONIC PIVOT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND IT
IS WITHIN THIS AXIS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, DISTANCE FROM THE RADAR, LACK OF REPORTS, AND A VOID
IN SURFACE OBS IS SEVERELY LIMITING DIAGNOSIS OF ACTUAL SNOW
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM HANDLED THE RELEVANT FEATURES WELL,
ITS QPF OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL. THAT HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z
NAM, WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE IN SPATIAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AND
CORRELATION WITH RELEVANT FEATURES. IT WILL REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROWAL, OR WHAT
REMAINS OF IT AFTER THE CIRCULATION OPENS, WILL RAPIDLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF 8 MILE. TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE LAKE ENHANCED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
FEATURE WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY
FALLING IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE LAKE 12-18Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ROBUST, THOUGH STILL
MODEST, OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HAVE A CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH BEFORE IT PIVOTS ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE WORTH MONITORING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW WILL BE ON THE TABLE
FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW THEN TAKES OVER
AS THE OPEN WAVE EXITS RESULTING IN A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 00Z.

THE STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -2C AT PRESENT TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUING IN WEAK FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO 20 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AS THE DGZ WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WRT ICE BEFORE LINGERING
MOISTURE EXITS LATE. NW FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PURE LES POTENTIAL,
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WILL FAVOR MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERIOR-
MICHIGAN BAND STRETCHING INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
A STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP LOWS EASILY ABOVE MODELED VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RAISED LOWS WED NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.

EDGEWAVE RACING EAST ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SUBZERO LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND -15 WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME. UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY,
THIS INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LONG
GONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SQUALLS AND INCREASING
NORTH WIND AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. A WIND HEADLINE
IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE INCREASED WIND AND LONG NORTHERLY FETCH
WILL BUILD WAVE ACTION WELL INTO CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY. THE NORTH WIND WILL ALSO BRING
A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW SQUALLS AND SUPPORT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FREEZING
SPRAY POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047-048-
     053-060>062-068>070.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-055-
     063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......MANN
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 091548
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1048 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOT GOING ON THIS MORNING WITH RETROGRADING PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WORKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS BEGIN
TO RAMP UP OFF OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS
STILL BACKED NW OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF ENHANCEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SEEDS
DEVELOPING LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WINDS
WILL VEER MORE N-NW WITH DELTA T/S CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
ALONG/WEST OF US-131 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND WEST OF M-123 IN
EASTERN UPPER. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HEAVIER SNOWS ALONG
THE LAKE HURON COAST ASSOCIATED WITH OUR MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
SHIELD. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

HEADLINES...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY HEADLINE CHANGES. THE WARNING
LIKELY GOES INTO EFFECT A BIT EARLY BUT SINCE THERE WILL BE SNOW
IN THE AIR AND GUSTY WINDS...HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY WON/T BEGIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOWS ALSO
CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST...WHERE A FEW ADDITIONAL
INCHES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TERMINAL SITES WILL REMAIN LARGELY MVFR THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
IMPACTING MAINLY APN. BUT SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN EARNEST OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TVC/MBL WILL SEE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. APN/PLN SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AS FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER TOWARD
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KDTX 091400
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

INTEGRITY OF SPIRAL BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN REMAINS RATHER HIGH. THESE BANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE
OVERACHIEVING NATURE OF THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE PROSPECTS
CONMTINUE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF M-59...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE DETROIT METRO REGION.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE EXPANDED
AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE INITIALLY ADVISORY AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 702 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW BECAME FOCUSED ON A SURFACE TROUGH AND SWUNG
THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP IN THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON FEEDS BANDS OF SNOW INTO THE
MBS-FNT-PTK REGION. EXPECT THIS AREA TO REMAIN IFR FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PTK...BUT
TIMING AND DURATION OF BREAKS HAS VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY AND WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SHORT TERM UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY. THE RELATIVE
BREAK IN THE SNOW PATTERN OBSERVED OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER SE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO. THE AREA OF SNOW
OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW... BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID MORNING AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING LATE MORNING
WHILE CEILING REMAINS MVFR. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF SNOW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO UPDATE
AS OBSERVATIONS REVEAL BETTER TIMING ON SMALLER SCALE MOVING DOWN
FROM THE THUMB REGION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING NORTHWEST CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

A 999MB SURFACE LOW NEAR EXETER, ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN BY ANOTHER MB OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EMBEDDED
ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ONGOING ADVISORY EVENT IS
PANNING OUT IN REASONABLE FASHION AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING HEADLINE.

0730Z RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS BAND IS BEING
FORCED BY THE LEAD EDGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, REACHING
THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 6AM AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-
MORNING. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL REPRESENT THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT
SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE NE CWA.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AN INLAND ADJUSTMENT OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HURON, TUSCOLA, AND SANILAC COUNTIES. RADAR
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. BROAD ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW FROM ONTARIO TO LAKE HURON. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROWAL. FAR FROM A CLASSIC
TROWAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION, AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS REGION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL IR
AND WV. THE SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK FGEN ALONG THE TROWAL`S BACK EDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SHOW A SLOW CYCLONIC PIVOT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND IT
IS WITHIN THIS AXIS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, DISTANCE FROM THE RADAR, LACK OF REPORTS, AND A VOID
IN SURFACE OBS IS SEVERELY LIMITING DIAGNOSIS OF ACTUAL SNOW
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM HANDLED THE RELEVANT FEATURES WELL,
ITS QPF OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL. THAT HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z
NAM, WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE IN SPATIAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AND
CORRELATION WITH RELEVANT FEATURES. IT WILL REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROWAL, OR WHAT
REMAINS OF IT AFTER THE CIRCULATION OPENS, WILL RAPIDLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF 8 MILE. TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE LAKE ENHANCED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
FEATURE WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY
FALLING IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE LAKE 12-18Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ROBUST, THOUGH STILL
MODEST, OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HAVE A CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH BEFORE IT PIVOTS ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE WORTH MONITORING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW WILL BE ON THE TABLE
FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW THEN TAKES OVER
AS THE OPEN WAVE EXITS RESULTING IN A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 00Z.

THE STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -2C AT PRESENT TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUING IN WEAK FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO 20 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AS THE DGZ WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WRT ICE BEFORE LINGERING
MOISTURE EXITS LATE. NW FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PURE LES POTENTIAL,
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WILL FAVOR MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERIOR-
MICHIGAN BAND STRETCHING INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
A STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP LOWS EASILY ABOVE MODELED VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RAISED LOWS WED NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.

EDGEWAVE RACING EAST ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SUBZERO LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND -15 WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME. UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY,
THIS INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LONG
GONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SQUALLS AND INCREASING
NORTH WIND AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. A WIND HEADLINE
IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE INCREASED WIND AND LONG NORTHERLY FETCH
WILL BUILD WAVE ACTION WELL INTO CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY. THE NORTH WIND WILL ALSO BRING
A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW SQUALLS AND SUPPORT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FREEZING
SPRAY POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......RK
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 091400
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

INTEGRITY OF SPIRAL BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN REMAINS RATHER HIGH. THESE BANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE
OVERACHIEVING NATURE OF THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE PROSPECTS
CONMTINUE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF M-59...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE DETROIT METRO REGION.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE EXPANDED
AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE INITIALLY ADVISORY AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 702 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW BECAME FOCUSED ON A SURFACE TROUGH AND SWUNG
THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP IN THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON FEEDS BANDS OF SNOW INTO THE
MBS-FNT-PTK REGION. EXPECT THIS AREA TO REMAIN IFR FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PTK...BUT
TIMING AND DURATION OF BREAKS HAS VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY AND WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SHORT TERM UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY. THE RELATIVE
BREAK IN THE SNOW PATTERN OBSERVED OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER SE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO. THE AREA OF SNOW
OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW... BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID MORNING AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING LATE MORNING
WHILE CEILING REMAINS MVFR. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF SNOW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO UPDATE
AS OBSERVATIONS REVEAL BETTER TIMING ON SMALLER SCALE MOVING DOWN
FROM THE THUMB REGION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING NORTHWEST CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

A 999MB SURFACE LOW NEAR EXETER, ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN BY ANOTHER MB OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EMBEDDED
ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ONGOING ADVISORY EVENT IS
PANNING OUT IN REASONABLE FASHION AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING HEADLINE.

0730Z RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS BAND IS BEING
FORCED BY THE LEAD EDGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, REACHING
THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 6AM AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-
MORNING. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL REPRESENT THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT
SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE NE CWA.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AN INLAND ADJUSTMENT OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HURON, TUSCOLA, AND SANILAC COUNTIES. RADAR
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. BROAD ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW FROM ONTARIO TO LAKE HURON. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROWAL. FAR FROM A CLASSIC
TROWAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION, AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS REGION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL IR
AND WV. THE SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK FGEN ALONG THE TROWAL`S BACK EDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SHOW A SLOW CYCLONIC PIVOT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND IT
IS WITHIN THIS AXIS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, DISTANCE FROM THE RADAR, LACK OF REPORTS, AND A VOID
IN SURFACE OBS IS SEVERELY LIMITING DIAGNOSIS OF ACTUAL SNOW
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM HANDLED THE RELEVANT FEATURES WELL,
ITS QPF OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL. THAT HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z
NAM, WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE IN SPATIAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AND
CORRELATION WITH RELEVANT FEATURES. IT WILL REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROWAL, OR WHAT
REMAINS OF IT AFTER THE CIRCULATION OPENS, WILL RAPIDLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF 8 MILE. TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE LAKE ENHANCED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
FEATURE WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY
FALLING IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE LAKE 12-18Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ROBUST, THOUGH STILL
MODEST, OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HAVE A CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH BEFORE IT PIVOTS ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE WORTH MONITORING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW WILL BE ON THE TABLE
FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW THEN TAKES OVER
AS THE OPEN WAVE EXITS RESULTING IN A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 00Z.

THE STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -2C AT PRESENT TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUING IN WEAK FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO 20 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AS THE DGZ WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WRT ICE BEFORE LINGERING
MOISTURE EXITS LATE. NW FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PURE LES POTENTIAL,
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WILL FAVOR MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERIOR-
MICHIGAN BAND STRETCHING INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
A STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP LOWS EASILY ABOVE MODELED VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RAISED LOWS WED NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.

EDGEWAVE RACING EAST ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SUBZERO LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND -15 WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME. UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY,
THIS INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LONG
GONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SQUALLS AND INCREASING
NORTH WIND AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. A WIND HEADLINE
IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE INCREASED WIND AND LONG NORTHERLY FETCH
WILL BUILD WAVE ACTION WELL INTO CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY. THE NORTH WIND WILL ALSO BRING
A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW SQUALLS AND SUPPORT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FREEZING
SPRAY POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......RK
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 091400
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

INTEGRITY OF SPIRAL BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN REMAINS RATHER HIGH. THESE BANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE
OVERACHIEVING NATURE OF THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE PROSPECTS
CONMTINUE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF M-59...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE DETROIT METRO REGION.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE EXPANDED
AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE INITIALLY ADVISORY AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 702 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW BECAME FOCUSED ON A SURFACE TROUGH AND SWUNG
THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP IN THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON FEEDS BANDS OF SNOW INTO THE
MBS-FNT-PTK REGION. EXPECT THIS AREA TO REMAIN IFR FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PTK...BUT
TIMING AND DURATION OF BREAKS HAS VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY AND WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SHORT TERM UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY. THE RELATIVE
BREAK IN THE SNOW PATTERN OBSERVED OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER SE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO. THE AREA OF SNOW
OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW... BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID MORNING AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING LATE MORNING
WHILE CEILING REMAINS MVFR. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF SNOW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO UPDATE
AS OBSERVATIONS REVEAL BETTER TIMING ON SMALLER SCALE MOVING DOWN
FROM THE THUMB REGION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING NORTHWEST CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

A 999MB SURFACE LOW NEAR EXETER, ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN BY ANOTHER MB OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EMBEDDED
ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ONGOING ADVISORY EVENT IS
PANNING OUT IN REASONABLE FASHION AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING HEADLINE.

0730Z RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS BAND IS BEING
FORCED BY THE LEAD EDGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, REACHING
THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 6AM AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-
MORNING. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL REPRESENT THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT
SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE NE CWA.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AN INLAND ADJUSTMENT OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HURON, TUSCOLA, AND SANILAC COUNTIES. RADAR
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. BROAD ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW FROM ONTARIO TO LAKE HURON. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROWAL. FAR FROM A CLASSIC
TROWAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION, AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS REGION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL IR
AND WV. THE SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK FGEN ALONG THE TROWAL`S BACK EDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SHOW A SLOW CYCLONIC PIVOT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND IT
IS WITHIN THIS AXIS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, DISTANCE FROM THE RADAR, LACK OF REPORTS, AND A VOID
IN SURFACE OBS IS SEVERELY LIMITING DIAGNOSIS OF ACTUAL SNOW
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM HANDLED THE RELEVANT FEATURES WELL,
ITS QPF OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL. THAT HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z
NAM, WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE IN SPATIAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AND
CORRELATION WITH RELEVANT FEATURES. IT WILL REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROWAL, OR WHAT
REMAINS OF IT AFTER THE CIRCULATION OPENS, WILL RAPIDLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF 8 MILE. TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE LAKE ENHANCED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
FEATURE WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY
FALLING IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE LAKE 12-18Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ROBUST, THOUGH STILL
MODEST, OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HAVE A CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH BEFORE IT PIVOTS ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE WORTH MONITORING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW WILL BE ON THE TABLE
FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW THEN TAKES OVER
AS THE OPEN WAVE EXITS RESULTING IN A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 00Z.

THE STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -2C AT PRESENT TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUING IN WEAK FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO 20 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AS THE DGZ WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WRT ICE BEFORE LINGERING
MOISTURE EXITS LATE. NW FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PURE LES POTENTIAL,
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WILL FAVOR MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERIOR-
MICHIGAN BAND STRETCHING INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
A STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP LOWS EASILY ABOVE MODELED VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RAISED LOWS WED NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.

EDGEWAVE RACING EAST ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SUBZERO LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND -15 WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME. UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY,
THIS INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LONG
GONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SQUALLS AND INCREASING
NORTH WIND AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. A WIND HEADLINE
IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE INCREASED WIND AND LONG NORTHERLY FETCH
WILL BUILD WAVE ACTION WELL INTO CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY. THE NORTH WIND WILL ALSO BRING
A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW SQUALLS AND SUPPORT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FREEZING
SPRAY POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......RK
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KMQT 091316
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
816 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...STRONG NRLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE HURON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -22C AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANTY 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUPPORTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES INTO THE WRN CWA NEAR IWD WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS
STRONGEST. LES ALSO CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI BUT WAS
NOT AS HEAVY.

TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4K FT. SO...WITH DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING/ADVISORIES EXPIRATION OF
21Z LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER LES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...EXPECT LES WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLSN. AN ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE WEST HALF TO THE LOW 20S AND EAST.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL HELP BOOST SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGER
FETCHAND WHERE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE.
LAND BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONV INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DGZ
LOWERING CLOSER TO THE SFC AND GREATER DRYING...EXPECT MAINLY 1 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5F RANGE WEST
AND 5 TO 10 EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 816 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS
AFTERNOON..EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF
THE TIME AT THOSE SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING EXIT OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR
SAW...MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE FAVORABLE NRLY
DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER MOISTURE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

 THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE HURON WILL EXIT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED N WINDS TO 20
TO 30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
E HALF. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
SPRAY INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA
OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...- NONE -
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 091316
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
816 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...STRONG NRLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE HURON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -22C AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANTY 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUPPORTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES INTO THE WRN CWA NEAR IWD WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS
STRONGEST. LES ALSO CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI BUT WAS
NOT AS HEAVY.

TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4K FT. SO...WITH DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING/ADVISORIES EXPIRATION OF
21Z LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER LES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...EXPECT LES WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLSN. AN ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE WEST HALF TO THE LOW 20S AND EAST.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL HELP BOOST SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGER
FETCHAND WHERE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE.
LAND BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONV INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DGZ
LOWERING CLOSER TO THE SFC AND GREATER DRYING...EXPECT MAINLY 1 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5F RANGE WEST
AND 5 TO 10 EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 816 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS
AFTERNOON..EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF
THE TIME AT THOSE SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING EXIT OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR
SAW...MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE FAVORABLE NRLY
DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER MOISTURE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

 THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE HURON WILL EXIT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED N WINDS TO 20
TO 30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
E HALF. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
SPRAY INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA
OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...- NONE -
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 091316
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
816 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...STRONG NRLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE HURON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -22C AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANTY 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUPPORTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES INTO THE WRN CWA NEAR IWD WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS
STRONGEST. LES ALSO CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI BUT WAS
NOT AS HEAVY.

TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4K FT. SO...WITH DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING/ADVISORIES EXPIRATION OF
21Z LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER LES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...EXPECT LES WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLSN. AN ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE WEST HALF TO THE LOW 20S AND EAST.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL HELP BOOST SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGER
FETCHAND WHERE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE.
LAND BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONV INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DGZ
LOWERING CLOSER TO THE SFC AND GREATER DRYING...EXPECT MAINLY 1 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5F RANGE WEST
AND 5 TO 10 EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 816 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS
AFTERNOON..EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF
THE TIME AT THOSE SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING EXIT OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR
SAW...MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE FAVORABLE NRLY
DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER MOISTURE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

 THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE HURON WILL EXIT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED N WINDS TO 20
TO 30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
E HALF. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
SPRAY INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA
OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...- NONE -
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KGRR 091210
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
710 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.  COLDER AIR WILL POUR IN OVER THE LAKE
GIVING THE LAKESHORE AREAS A PROLONG PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE OVER SIX INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND IT WILL ALSO BECOME
COLD...BUT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 20 ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND.

IT SHOULD STAY COLD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL COME WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE TODAY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE A
DOMINATE BAND SET UP WHICH COULD BRING DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL BEFORE
ITS DIMINISHES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COLDER H8 AIR ARRIVES TOWARD MID DAY TODAY WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL RAMP UP.  WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS...STARTING AT
4PM...BUT THE STEADIER SNOWS COULD KICK IN SHORTLY AFTER NOON.  THE
MAIN THING IS THAT THE WORD IS OUT.

WITH H8 TEMPS OF -16C MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
TO LIGHT UP.  MOISTEN DEPTH IS SOLID WITH INVERSION LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE 8K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  THE PEAK OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY WHEN
THERE IS LITTLE TO INHIBIT INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS THAT MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS
APPEAR TO STAY ROCK SOLID...FROM 330-340 TODAY ALL THE WAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD DOMINATE BANDS THAT WON/T WAVER
MUCH. SIX-PLUS INCHES CERTAINLY LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TWELVE INCH
REPORTS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THIS...WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  THIS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIME.  THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWS...ROUGHLY
NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE
MAY NEED TO BUMP SOME OF THE LAKESHORE INTO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES INTO LATE TODAY.

FURTHER INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW  OVER NW OHIO KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
A SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW.  EXPECTING A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  INLAND SNOWS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST SNOW LINGERING ONLY
OVER THE LAKESHORE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE SNOW WILL
COME FROM A SEVERAL DIFFERENT METHODS...WHILE THE COLD WILL BE
PREVALENT AND LIKELY SOME OF THE COLDEST WE/VE SEEN THIS WINTER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO AN UNSTABLE LAKE
ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AFTER A LULL ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE LAKESHORE.

ON FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AREA WIDE. ACCUMULATIONS INLAND WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. TOWARDS THE LAKE...THE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES
POTENTIALLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR POURS IN. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO
NEAR -26C SATURDAY AT 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE MORE
THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
MAINLY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
DIMINISHING IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BRING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY. AT
THIS POINT HAVE CHANCE POPS 30-40 PCT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW. NOT CONFIDENT HOW THE SUN/MON LOW WILL PLAY OUT AT THIS
POINT THOUGH.

BOTTOM LINE...COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WITH POOR
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE. SNOW PACKED AND SLIPPERY
ROADS EXPECTED IN THE LAKE SNOW BELTS GIVEN THE VERY COLD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SOME SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT KJXN AND KLAN THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MIDDAY. IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 18Z.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ORGANIZE TODAY AND BECOME HEAVY TONIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY MISS THE TAF SITES...AFFECTING THE
LUDINGTON AND SOUTH HAVEN AREAS MORE SO THAN MUSKEGON AND
KALAMAZOO. THE WIND DIRECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW WILL BE
FROM 330 DEGREES SO INLAND TAF SITES WILL MOSTLY BE SPARED.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT KMKG AND
KAZO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10-25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WILL BUMP THE AREAS NORTH OF WHITEHALL INTO A GALE WARNING.  THIS IS
A LOW END GALE...BUT WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING.  FREEZING SPRAY WILL
ALSO BE ON THE MODERATE SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK



000
FXUS63 KGRR 091210
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
710 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.  COLDER AIR WILL POUR IN OVER THE LAKE
GIVING THE LAKESHORE AREAS A PROLONG PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE OVER SIX INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND IT WILL ALSO BECOME
COLD...BUT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 20 ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND.

IT SHOULD STAY COLD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL COME WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE TODAY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE A
DOMINATE BAND SET UP WHICH COULD BRING DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL BEFORE
ITS DIMINISHES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COLDER H8 AIR ARRIVES TOWARD MID DAY TODAY WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL RAMP UP.  WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS...STARTING AT
4PM...BUT THE STEADIER SNOWS COULD KICK IN SHORTLY AFTER NOON.  THE
MAIN THING IS THAT THE WORD IS OUT.

WITH H8 TEMPS OF -16C MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
TO LIGHT UP.  MOISTEN DEPTH IS SOLID WITH INVERSION LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE 8K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  THE PEAK OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY WHEN
THERE IS LITTLE TO INHIBIT INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS THAT MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS
APPEAR TO STAY ROCK SOLID...FROM 330-340 TODAY ALL THE WAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD DOMINATE BANDS THAT WON/T WAVER
MUCH. SIX-PLUS INCHES CERTAINLY LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TWELVE INCH
REPORTS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THIS...WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  THIS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIME.  THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWS...ROUGHLY
NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE
MAY NEED TO BUMP SOME OF THE LAKESHORE INTO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES INTO LATE TODAY.

FURTHER INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW  OVER NW OHIO KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
A SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW.  EXPECTING A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  INLAND SNOWS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST SNOW LINGERING ONLY
OVER THE LAKESHORE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE SNOW WILL
COME FROM A SEVERAL DIFFERENT METHODS...WHILE THE COLD WILL BE
PREVALENT AND LIKELY SOME OF THE COLDEST WE/VE SEEN THIS WINTER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO AN UNSTABLE LAKE
ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AFTER A LULL ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE LAKESHORE.

ON FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AREA WIDE. ACCUMULATIONS INLAND WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. TOWARDS THE LAKE...THE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES
POTENTIALLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR POURS IN. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO
NEAR -26C SATURDAY AT 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE MORE
THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
MAINLY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
DIMINISHING IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BRING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY. AT
THIS POINT HAVE CHANCE POPS 30-40 PCT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW. NOT CONFIDENT HOW THE SUN/MON LOW WILL PLAY OUT AT THIS
POINT THOUGH.

BOTTOM LINE...COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WITH POOR
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE. SNOW PACKED AND SLIPPERY
ROADS EXPECTED IN THE LAKE SNOW BELTS GIVEN THE VERY COLD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SOME SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT KJXN AND KLAN THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MIDDAY. IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 18Z.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ORGANIZE TODAY AND BECOME HEAVY TONIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY MISS THE TAF SITES...AFFECTING THE
LUDINGTON AND SOUTH HAVEN AREAS MORE SO THAN MUSKEGON AND
KALAMAZOO. THE WIND DIRECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW WILL BE
FROM 330 DEGREES SO INLAND TAF SITES WILL MOSTLY BE SPARED.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT KMKG AND
KAZO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10-25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WILL BUMP THE AREAS NORTH OF WHITEHALL INTO A GALE WARNING.  THIS IS
A LOW END GALE...BUT WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING.  FREEZING SPRAY WILL
ALSO BE ON THE MODERATE SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 091210
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
710 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.  COLDER AIR WILL POUR IN OVER THE LAKE
GIVING THE LAKESHORE AREAS A PROLONG PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE OVER SIX INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND IT WILL ALSO BECOME
COLD...BUT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 20 ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND.

IT SHOULD STAY COLD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL COME WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE TODAY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE A
DOMINATE BAND SET UP WHICH COULD BRING DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL BEFORE
ITS DIMINISHES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COLDER H8 AIR ARRIVES TOWARD MID DAY TODAY WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL RAMP UP.  WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS...STARTING AT
4PM...BUT THE STEADIER SNOWS COULD KICK IN SHORTLY AFTER NOON.  THE
MAIN THING IS THAT THE WORD IS OUT.

WITH H8 TEMPS OF -16C MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
TO LIGHT UP.  MOISTEN DEPTH IS SOLID WITH INVERSION LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE 8K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  THE PEAK OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY WHEN
THERE IS LITTLE TO INHIBIT INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS THAT MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS
APPEAR TO STAY ROCK SOLID...FROM 330-340 TODAY ALL THE WAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD DOMINATE BANDS THAT WON/T WAVER
MUCH. SIX-PLUS INCHES CERTAINLY LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TWELVE INCH
REPORTS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THIS...WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  THIS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIME.  THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWS...ROUGHLY
NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE
MAY NEED TO BUMP SOME OF THE LAKESHORE INTO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES INTO LATE TODAY.

FURTHER INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW  OVER NW OHIO KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
A SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW.  EXPECTING A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  INLAND SNOWS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST SNOW LINGERING ONLY
OVER THE LAKESHORE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE SNOW WILL
COME FROM A SEVERAL DIFFERENT METHODS...WHILE THE COLD WILL BE
PREVALENT AND LIKELY SOME OF THE COLDEST WE/VE SEEN THIS WINTER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO AN UNSTABLE LAKE
ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AFTER A LULL ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE LAKESHORE.

ON FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AREA WIDE. ACCUMULATIONS INLAND WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. TOWARDS THE LAKE...THE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES
POTENTIALLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR POURS IN. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO
NEAR -26C SATURDAY AT 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE MORE
THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
MAINLY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
DIMINISHING IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BRING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY. AT
THIS POINT HAVE CHANCE POPS 30-40 PCT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW. NOT CONFIDENT HOW THE SUN/MON LOW WILL PLAY OUT AT THIS
POINT THOUGH.

BOTTOM LINE...COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WITH POOR
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE. SNOW PACKED AND SLIPPERY
ROADS EXPECTED IN THE LAKE SNOW BELTS GIVEN THE VERY COLD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SOME SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT KJXN AND KLAN THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MIDDAY. IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 18Z.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ORGANIZE TODAY AND BECOME HEAVY TONIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY MISS THE TAF SITES...AFFECTING THE
LUDINGTON AND SOUTH HAVEN AREAS MORE SO THAN MUSKEGON AND
KALAMAZOO. THE WIND DIRECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW WILL BE
FROM 330 DEGREES SO INLAND TAF SITES WILL MOSTLY BE SPARED.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT KMKG AND
KAZO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10-25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WILL BUMP THE AREAS NORTH OF WHITEHALL INTO A GALE WARNING.  THIS IS
A LOW END GALE...BUT WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING.  FREEZING SPRAY WILL
ALSO BE ON THE MODERATE SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KDTX 091202
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW BECAME FOCUSED ON A SURFACE TROUGH AND SWUNG
THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP IN THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON FEEDS BANDS OF SNOW INTO THE
MBS-FNT-PTK REGION. EXPECT THIS AREA TO REMAIN IFR FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PTK...BUT
TIMING AND DURATION OF BREAKS HAS VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY AND WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SHORT TERM UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY. THE RELATIVE
BREAK IN THE SNOW PATTERN OBSERVED OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER SE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO. THE AREA OF SNOW
OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW... BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID MORNING AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING LATE MORNING
WHILE CEILING REMAINS MVFR. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF SNOW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO UPDATE
AS OBSERVATIONS REVEAL BETTER TIMING ON SMALLER SCALE MOVING DOWN
FROM THE THUMB REGION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING NORTHWEST CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

A 999MB SURFACE LOW NEAR EXETER, ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN BY ANOTHER MB OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EMBEDDED
ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ONGOING ADVISORY EVENT IS
PANNING OUT IN REASONABLE FASHION AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING HEADLINE.

0730Z RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS BAND IS BEING
FORCED BY THE LEAD EDGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, REACHING
THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 6AM AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-
MORNING. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL REPRESENT THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT
SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE NE CWA.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AN INLAND ADJUSTMENT OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HURON, TUSCOLA, AND SANILAC COUNTIES. RADAR
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. BROAD ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW FROM ONTARIO TO LAKE HURON. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROWAL. FAR FROM A CLASSIC
TROWAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION, AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS REGION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL IR
AND WV. THE SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK FGEN ALONG THE TROWAL`S BACK EDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SHOW A SLOW CYCLONIC PIVOT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND IT
IS WITHIN THIS AXIS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, DISTANCE FROM THE RADAR, LACK OF REPORTS, AND A VOID
IN SURFACE OBS IS SEVERELY LIMITING DIAGNOSIS OF ACTUAL SNOW
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM HANDLED THE RELEVANT FEATURES WELL,
ITS QPF OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL. THAT HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z
NAM, WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE IN SPATIAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AND
CORRELATION WITH RELEVANT FEATURES. IT WILL REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROWAL, OR WHAT
REMAINS OF IT AFTER THE CIRCULATION OPENS, WILL RAPIDLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF 8 MILE. TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE LAKE ENHANCED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
FEATURE WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY
FALLING IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE LAKE 12-18Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ROBUST, THOUGH STILL
MODEST, OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HAVE A CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH BEFORE IT PIVOTS ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE WORTH MONITORING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW WILL BE ON THE TABLE
FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW THEN TAKES OVER
AS THE OPEN WAVE EXITS RESULTING IN A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 00Z.

THE STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -2C AT PRESENT TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUING IN WEAK FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO 20 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AS THE DGZ WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WRT ICE BEFORE LINGERING
MOISTURE EXITS LATE. NW FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PURE LES POTENTIAL,
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WILL FAVOR MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERIOR-
MICHIGAN BAND STRETCHING INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
A STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP LOWS EASILY ABOVE MODELED VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RAISED LOWS WED NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.

EDGEWAVE RACING EAST ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SUBZERO LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND -15 WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME. UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY,
THIS INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LONG
GONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SQUALLS AND INCREASING
NORTH WIND AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. A WIND HEADLINE
IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE INCREASED WIND AND LONG NORTHERLY FETCH
WILL BUILD WAVE ACTION WELL INTO CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY. THE NORTH WIND WILL ALSO BRING
A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW SQUALLS AND SUPPORT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FREEZING
SPRAY POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-
     055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 091202
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW BECAME FOCUSED ON A SURFACE TROUGH AND SWUNG
THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP IN THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON FEEDS BANDS OF SNOW INTO THE
MBS-FNT-PTK REGION. EXPECT THIS AREA TO REMAIN IFR FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PTK...BUT
TIMING AND DURATION OF BREAKS HAS VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY AND WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SHORT TERM UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY. THE RELATIVE
BREAK IN THE SNOW PATTERN OBSERVED OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER SE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO. THE AREA OF SNOW
OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW... BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID MORNING AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING LATE MORNING
WHILE CEILING REMAINS MVFR. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF SNOW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO UPDATE
AS OBSERVATIONS REVEAL BETTER TIMING ON SMALLER SCALE MOVING DOWN
FROM THE THUMB REGION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING NORTHWEST CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

A 999MB SURFACE LOW NEAR EXETER, ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN BY ANOTHER MB OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EMBEDDED
ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ONGOING ADVISORY EVENT IS
PANNING OUT IN REASONABLE FASHION AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING HEADLINE.

0730Z RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS BAND IS BEING
FORCED BY THE LEAD EDGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, REACHING
THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 6AM AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-
MORNING. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL REPRESENT THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT
SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE NE CWA.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AN INLAND ADJUSTMENT OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HURON, TUSCOLA, AND SANILAC COUNTIES. RADAR
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. BROAD ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW FROM ONTARIO TO LAKE HURON. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROWAL. FAR FROM A CLASSIC
TROWAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION, AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS REGION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL IR
AND WV. THE SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK FGEN ALONG THE TROWAL`S BACK EDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SHOW A SLOW CYCLONIC PIVOT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND IT
IS WITHIN THIS AXIS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, DISTANCE FROM THE RADAR, LACK OF REPORTS, AND A VOID
IN SURFACE OBS IS SEVERELY LIMITING DIAGNOSIS OF ACTUAL SNOW
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM HANDLED THE RELEVANT FEATURES WELL,
ITS QPF OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL. THAT HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z
NAM, WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE IN SPATIAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AND
CORRELATION WITH RELEVANT FEATURES. IT WILL REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROWAL, OR WHAT
REMAINS OF IT AFTER THE CIRCULATION OPENS, WILL RAPIDLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF 8 MILE. TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE LAKE ENHANCED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
FEATURE WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY
FALLING IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE LAKE 12-18Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ROBUST, THOUGH STILL
MODEST, OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HAVE A CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH BEFORE IT PIVOTS ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE WORTH MONITORING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW WILL BE ON THE TABLE
FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW THEN TAKES OVER
AS THE OPEN WAVE EXITS RESULTING IN A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 00Z.

THE STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -2C AT PRESENT TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUING IN WEAK FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO 20 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AS THE DGZ WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WRT ICE BEFORE LINGERING
MOISTURE EXITS LATE. NW FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PURE LES POTENTIAL,
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WILL FAVOR MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERIOR-
MICHIGAN BAND STRETCHING INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
A STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP LOWS EASILY ABOVE MODELED VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RAISED LOWS WED NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.

EDGEWAVE RACING EAST ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SUBZERO LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND -15 WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME. UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY,
THIS INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LONG
GONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SQUALLS AND INCREASING
NORTH WIND AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. A WIND HEADLINE
IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE INCREASED WIND AND LONG NORTHERLY FETCH
WILL BUILD WAVE ACTION WELL INTO CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY. THE NORTH WIND WILL ALSO BRING
A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW SQUALLS AND SUPPORT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FREEZING
SPRAY POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-
     055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 091202
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW BECAME FOCUSED ON A SURFACE TROUGH AND SWUNG
THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP IN THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON FEEDS BANDS OF SNOW INTO THE
MBS-FNT-PTK REGION. EXPECT THIS AREA TO REMAIN IFR FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PTK...BUT
TIMING AND DURATION OF BREAKS HAS VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY AND WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SHORT TERM UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY. THE RELATIVE
BREAK IN THE SNOW PATTERN OBSERVED OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER SE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO. THE AREA OF SNOW
OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW... BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID MORNING AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING LATE MORNING
WHILE CEILING REMAINS MVFR. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF SNOW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO UPDATE
AS OBSERVATIONS REVEAL BETTER TIMING ON SMALLER SCALE MOVING DOWN
FROM THE THUMB REGION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING NORTHWEST CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

A 999MB SURFACE LOW NEAR EXETER, ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN BY ANOTHER MB OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EMBEDDED
ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ONGOING ADVISORY EVENT IS
PANNING OUT IN REASONABLE FASHION AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING HEADLINE.

0730Z RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS BAND IS BEING
FORCED BY THE LEAD EDGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, REACHING
THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 6AM AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-
MORNING. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL REPRESENT THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT
SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE NE CWA.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AN INLAND ADJUSTMENT OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HURON, TUSCOLA, AND SANILAC COUNTIES. RADAR
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. BROAD ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW FROM ONTARIO TO LAKE HURON. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROWAL. FAR FROM A CLASSIC
TROWAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION, AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS REGION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL IR
AND WV. THE SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK FGEN ALONG THE TROWAL`S BACK EDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SHOW A SLOW CYCLONIC PIVOT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND IT
IS WITHIN THIS AXIS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, DISTANCE FROM THE RADAR, LACK OF REPORTS, AND A VOID
IN SURFACE OBS IS SEVERELY LIMITING DIAGNOSIS OF ACTUAL SNOW
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM HANDLED THE RELEVANT FEATURES WELL,
ITS QPF OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL. THAT HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z
NAM, WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE IN SPATIAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AND
CORRELATION WITH RELEVANT FEATURES. IT WILL REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROWAL, OR WHAT
REMAINS OF IT AFTER THE CIRCULATION OPENS, WILL RAPIDLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF 8 MILE. TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE LAKE ENHANCED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
FEATURE WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY
FALLING IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE LAKE 12-18Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ROBUST, THOUGH STILL
MODEST, OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HAVE A CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH BEFORE IT PIVOTS ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE WORTH MONITORING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW WILL BE ON THE TABLE
FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW THEN TAKES OVER
AS THE OPEN WAVE EXITS RESULTING IN A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 00Z.

THE STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -2C AT PRESENT TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUING IN WEAK FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO 20 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AS THE DGZ WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WRT ICE BEFORE LINGERING
MOISTURE EXITS LATE. NW FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PURE LES POTENTIAL,
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WILL FAVOR MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERIOR-
MICHIGAN BAND STRETCHING INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
A STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP LOWS EASILY ABOVE MODELED VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RAISED LOWS WED NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.

EDGEWAVE RACING EAST ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SUBZERO LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND -15 WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME. UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY,
THIS INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LONG
GONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SQUALLS AND INCREASING
NORTH WIND AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. A WIND HEADLINE
IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE INCREASED WIND AND LONG NORTHERLY FETCH
WILL BUILD WAVE ACTION WELL INTO CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY. THE NORTH WIND WILL ALSO BRING
A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW SQUALLS AND SUPPORT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FREEZING
SPRAY POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-
     055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 091142
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
642 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TERMINAL SITES WILL REMAIN LARGELY MVFR THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
IMPACTING MAINLY APN. BUT SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN EARNEST OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TVC/MBL WILL SEE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. APN/PLN SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AS FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER TOWARD
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KMQT 091032
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
532 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...STRONG NRLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE HURON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -22C AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANTY 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUPPORTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES INTO THE WRN CWA NEAR IWD WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS
STRONGEST. LES ALSO CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI BUT WAS
NOT AS HEAVY.

TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4K FT. SO...WITH DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING/ADVISORIES EXPIRATION OF
21Z LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER LES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...EXPECT LES WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLSN. AN ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE WEST HALF TO THE LOW 20S AND EAST.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL HELP BOOST SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGER
FETCHAND WHERE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE.
LAND BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONV INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DGZ
LOWERING CLOSER TO THE SFC AND GREATER DRYING...EXPECT MAINLY 1 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5F RANGE WEST
AND 5 TO 10 EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME AT THOSE
SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR SAW...VFR/MVFR WX EARLY WL GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS LASTER THIS MRNG AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER
MSTR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

 THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE HURON WILL EXIT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED N WINDS TO 20
TO 30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
E HALF. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
SPRAY INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA
OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 091032
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
532 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...STRONG NRLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE HURON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -22C AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANTY 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUPPORTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES INTO THE WRN CWA NEAR IWD WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS
STRONGEST. LES ALSO CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI BUT WAS
NOT AS HEAVY.

TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4K FT. SO...WITH DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING/ADVISORIES EXPIRATION OF
21Z LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER LES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...EXPECT LES WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLSN. AN ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE WEST HALF TO THE LOW 20S AND EAST.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL HELP BOOST SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGER
FETCHAND WHERE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE.
LAND BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONV INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DGZ
LOWERING CLOSER TO THE SFC AND GREATER DRYING...EXPECT MAINLY 1 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5F RANGE WEST
AND 5 TO 10 EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME AT THOSE
SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR SAW...VFR/MVFR WX EARLY WL GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS LASTER THIS MRNG AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER
MSTR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

 THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE HURON WILL EXIT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED N WINDS TO 20
TO 30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
E HALF. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
SPRAY INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA
OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 091000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

RECENTLY RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF UP TO 9 INCHES OF SN IN THE
IRONWOOD AREA...WITH SN FALLING AT AN INCH OR TWO PER HR. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYC UPSLOPE NNW FLOW/SHARP LLVL CNVGC FCST TO PERSIST IN
THIS AREA THRU THE NGT BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS...LINGERING DEEP
MSTR INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY...FALLING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C BY 12Z
TUE...AND FAVORABLE SN/WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET AGL THAT COINCIDES WITH SHARP LLVL UVV MAX...OPTED TO
UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO AN LES WARNING FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES DESPITE RATHER LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 SHOWN ON 00Z
INL RAOB AND FCST SDNGS FOR THE WRN CWA AS WELL AS LLVL DRY AIR OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD UPWIND OF LK SUP. EXPECT STORM TOTAL SN TO APRCH 18
INCHES IN SOME PLACES. THE NNW FLOW WL NOT BE AS FVRBL FOR THE
KEWEENAW...SO HELD ON TO AN ADVY FOR THAT AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME AT THOSE
SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR SAW...VFR/MVFR WX EARLY WL GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS LASTER THIS MRNG AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER
MSTR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 091000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

RECENTLY RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF UP TO 9 INCHES OF SN IN THE
IRONWOOD AREA...WITH SN FALLING AT AN INCH OR TWO PER HR. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYC UPSLOPE NNW FLOW/SHARP LLVL CNVGC FCST TO PERSIST IN
THIS AREA THRU THE NGT BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS...LINGERING DEEP
MSTR INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY...FALLING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C BY 12Z
TUE...AND FAVORABLE SN/WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET AGL THAT COINCIDES WITH SHARP LLVL UVV MAX...OPTED TO
UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO AN LES WARNING FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES DESPITE RATHER LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 SHOWN ON 00Z
INL RAOB AND FCST SDNGS FOR THE WRN CWA AS WELL AS LLVL DRY AIR OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD UPWIND OF LK SUP. EXPECT STORM TOTAL SN TO APRCH 18
INCHES IN SOME PLACES. THE NNW FLOW WL NOT BE AS FVRBL FOR THE
KEWEENAW...SO HELD ON TO AN ADVY FOR THAT AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME AT THOSE
SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR SAW...VFR/MVFR WX EARLY WL GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS LASTER THIS MRNG AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER
MSTR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KAPX 090848
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 090848
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 090848
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...ADAM



000
FXUS63 KGRR 090830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.  COLDER AIR WILL POUR IN OVER THE LAKE
GIVING THE LAKESHORE AREAS A PROLONG PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE OVER SIX INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND IT WILL ALSO BECOME
COLD...BUT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 20 ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND.

IT SHOULD STAY COLD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL COME WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE TODAY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE A
DOMINATE BAND SET UP WHICH COULD BRING DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL BEFORE
ITS DIMINISHES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COLDER H8 AIR ARRIVES TOWARD MID DAY TODAY WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL RAMP UP.  WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS...STARTING AT
4PM...BUT THE STEADIER SNOWS COULD KICK IN SHORTLY AFTER NOON.  THE
MAIN THING IS THAT THE WORD IS OUT.

WITH H8 TEMPS OF -16C MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
TO LIGHT UP.  MOISTEN DEPTH IS SOLID WITH INVERSION LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE 8K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  THE PEAK OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY WHEN
THERE IS LITTLE TO INHIBIT INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS THAT MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS
APPEAR TO STAY ROCK SOLID...FROM 330-340 TODAY ALL THE WAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD DOMINATE BANDS THAT WON/T WAVER
MUCH. SIX-PLUS INCHES CERTAINLY LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TWELVE INCH
REPORTS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THIS...WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  THIS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIME.  THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWS...ROUGHLY
NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE
MAY NEED TO BUMP SOME OF THE LAKESHORE INTO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES INTO LATE TODAY.

FURTHER INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW  OVER NW OHIO KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
A SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW.  EXPECTING A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  INLAND SNOWS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST SNOW LINGERING ONLY
OVER THE LAKESHORE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE SNOW WILL
COME FROM A SEVERAL DIFFERENT METHODS...WHILE THE COLD WILL BE
PREVALENT AND LIKELY SOME OF THE COLDEST WE/VE SEEN THIS WINTER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO AN UNSTABLE LAKE ENVIRONMENT.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER A LULL
ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE.

ON FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AREA WIDE. ACCUMULATIONS INLAND WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. TOWARDS THE LAKE...THE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES
POTENTIALLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR POURS IN. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO
NEAR -26C SATURDAY AT 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE MORE
THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
MAINLY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
DIMINISHING IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BRING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY. AT
THIS POINT HAVE CHANCE POPS 30-40 PCT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW. NOT CONFIDENT HOW THE SUN/MON LOW WILL PLAY OUT AT THIS
POINT THOUGH.

BOTTOM LINE...COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WITH POOR
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE. SNOW PACKED AND SLIPPERY
ROADS IN THE LAKE SNOW BELTS GIVEN THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

IFR CIGS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND WILL
PROBABLY LINGER MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS
ARRIVES TOWARD 12Z.

PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH OCNL
IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MKG AND AZO.
MAINLY FLURRIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BUT SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS EITHER.

THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF IFR SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AT LAN DUE TO AN AREA OF SNOW BACKING WESTWARD FROM
LK HURON AND THE THUMB.

AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS BY 18Z OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WILL BUMP THE AREAS NORTH OF WHITEHALL INTO A GALE WARNING.  THIS IS
A LOW END GALE...BUT WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING.  FREEZING SPRAY WILL
ALSO BE ON THE MODERATE SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK



000
FXUS63 KGRR 090830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.  COLDER AIR WILL POUR IN OVER THE LAKE
GIVING THE LAKESHORE AREAS A PROLONG PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE OVER SIX INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND IT WILL ALSO BECOME
COLD...BUT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 20 ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND.

IT SHOULD STAY COLD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL COME WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE TODAY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE A
DOMINATE BAND SET UP WHICH COULD BRING DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL BEFORE
ITS DIMINISHES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COLDER H8 AIR ARRIVES TOWARD MID DAY TODAY WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL RAMP UP.  WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS...STARTING AT
4PM...BUT THE STEADIER SNOWS COULD KICK IN SHORTLY AFTER NOON.  THE
MAIN THING IS THAT THE WORD IS OUT.

WITH H8 TEMPS OF -16C MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
TO LIGHT UP.  MOISTEN DEPTH IS SOLID WITH INVERSION LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE 8K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  THE PEAK OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY WHEN
THERE IS LITTLE TO INHIBIT INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS THAT MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS
APPEAR TO STAY ROCK SOLID...FROM 330-340 TODAY ALL THE WAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD DOMINATE BANDS THAT WON/T WAVER
MUCH. SIX-PLUS INCHES CERTAINLY LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TWELVE INCH
REPORTS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THIS...WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  THIS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIME.  THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWS...ROUGHLY
NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE
MAY NEED TO BUMP SOME OF THE LAKESHORE INTO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES INTO LATE TODAY.

FURTHER INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW  OVER NW OHIO KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
A SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW.  EXPECTING A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  INLAND SNOWS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST SNOW LINGERING ONLY
OVER THE LAKESHORE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE SNOW WILL
COME FROM A SEVERAL DIFFERENT METHODS...WHILE THE COLD WILL BE
PREVALENT AND LIKELY SOME OF THE COLDEST WE/VE SEEN THIS WINTER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO AN UNSTABLE LAKE ENVIRONMENT.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER A LULL
ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE.

ON FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AREA WIDE. ACCUMULATIONS INLAND WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. TOWARDS THE LAKE...THE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES
POTENTIALLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR POURS IN. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO
NEAR -26C SATURDAY AT 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE MORE
THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
MAINLY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
DIMINISHING IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BRING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY. AT
THIS POINT HAVE CHANCE POPS 30-40 PCT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW. NOT CONFIDENT HOW THE SUN/MON LOW WILL PLAY OUT AT THIS
POINT THOUGH.

BOTTOM LINE...COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WITH POOR
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE. SNOW PACKED AND SLIPPERY
ROADS IN THE LAKE SNOW BELTS GIVEN THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

IFR CIGS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND WILL
PROBABLY LINGER MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS
ARRIVES TOWARD 12Z.

PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH OCNL
IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MKG AND AZO.
MAINLY FLURRIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BUT SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS EITHER.

THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF IFR SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AT LAN DUE TO AN AREA OF SNOW BACKING WESTWARD FROM
LK HURON AND THE THUMB.

AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS BY 18Z OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WILL BUMP THE AREAS NORTH OF WHITEHALL INTO A GALE WARNING.  THIS IS
A LOW END GALE...BUT WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING.  FREEZING SPRAY WILL
ALSO BE ON THE MODERATE SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 090830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.  COLDER AIR WILL POUR IN OVER THE LAKE
GIVING THE LAKESHORE AREAS A PROLONG PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE OVER SIX INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND IT WILL ALSO BECOME
COLD...BUT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 20 ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND.

IT SHOULD STAY COLD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL COME WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE TODAY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE A
DOMINATE BAND SET UP WHICH COULD BRING DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL BEFORE
ITS DIMINISHES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COLDER H8 AIR ARRIVES TOWARD MID DAY TODAY WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL RAMP UP.  WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS...STARTING AT
4PM...BUT THE STEADIER SNOWS COULD KICK IN SHORTLY AFTER NOON.  THE
MAIN THING IS THAT THE WORD IS OUT.

WITH H8 TEMPS OF -16C MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
TO LIGHT UP.  MOISTEN DEPTH IS SOLID WITH INVERSION LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE 8K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  THE PEAK OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY WHEN
THERE IS LITTLE TO INHIBIT INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS THAT MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS
APPEAR TO STAY ROCK SOLID...FROM 330-340 TODAY ALL THE WAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD DOMINATE BANDS THAT WON/T WAVER
MUCH. SIX-PLUS INCHES CERTAINLY LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TWELVE INCH
REPORTS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THIS...WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  THIS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIME.  THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWS...ROUGHLY
NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE
MAY NEED TO BUMP SOME OF THE LAKESHORE INTO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES INTO LATE TODAY.

FURTHER INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW  OVER NW OHIO KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
A SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW.  EXPECTING A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  INLAND SNOWS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST SNOW LINGERING ONLY
OVER THE LAKESHORE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE SNOW WILL
COME FROM A SEVERAL DIFFERENT METHODS...WHILE THE COLD WILL BE
PREVALENT AND LIKELY SOME OF THE COLDEST WE/VE SEEN THIS WINTER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO AN UNSTABLE LAKE ENVIRONMENT.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER A LULL
ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE.

ON FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AREA WIDE. ACCUMULATIONS INLAND WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. TOWARDS THE LAKE...THE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES
POTENTIALLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR POURS IN. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO
NEAR -26C SATURDAY AT 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE MORE
THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
MAINLY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
DIMINISHING IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BRING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY. AT
THIS POINT HAVE CHANCE POPS 30-40 PCT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW. NOT CONFIDENT HOW THE SUN/MON LOW WILL PLAY OUT AT THIS
POINT THOUGH.

BOTTOM LINE...COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WITH POOR
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE. SNOW PACKED AND SLIPPERY
ROADS IN THE LAKE SNOW BELTS GIVEN THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

IFR CIGS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND WILL
PROBABLY LINGER MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS
ARRIVES TOWARD 12Z.

PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH OCNL
IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MKG AND AZO.
MAINLY FLURRIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BUT SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS EITHER.

THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF IFR SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AT LAN DUE TO AN AREA OF SNOW BACKING WESTWARD FROM
LK HURON AND THE THUMB.

AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS BY 18Z OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WILL BUMP THE AREAS NORTH OF WHITEHALL INTO A GALE WARNING.  THIS IS
A LOW END GALE...BUT WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING.  FREEZING SPRAY WILL
ALSO BE ON THE MODERATE SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KDTX 090814
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
314 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A 999MB SURFACE LOW NEAR EXETER, ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN BY ANOTHER MB OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EMBEDDED
ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ONGOING ADVISORY EVENT IS
PANNING OUT IN REASONABLE FASHION AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING HEADLINE.

0730Z RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS BAND IS BEING
FORCED BY THE LEAD EDGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, REACHING
THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 6AM AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-
MORNING. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL REPRESENT THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT
SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE NE CWA.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AN INLAND ADJUSTMENT OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HURON, TUSCOLA, AND SANILAC COUNTIES. RADAR
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. BROAD ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW FROM ONTARIO TO LAKE HURON. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROWAL. FAR FROM A CLASSIC
TROWAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION, AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS REGION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL IR
AND WV. THE SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK FGEN ALONG THE TROWAL`S BACK EDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SHOW A SLOW CYCLONIC PIVOT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND IT
IS WITHIN THIS AXIS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, DISTANCE FROM THE RADAR, LACK OF REPORTS, AND A VOID
IN SURFACE OBS IS SEVERELY LIMITING DIAGNOSIS OF ACTUAL SNOW
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM HANDLED THE RELEVANT FEATURES WELL,
ITS QPF OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL. THAT HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z
NAM, WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE IN SPATIAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AND
CORRELATION WITH RELEVANT FEATURES. IT WILL REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROWAL, OR WHAT
REMAINS OF IT AFTER THE CIRCULATION OPENS, WILL RAPIDLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF 8 MILE. TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE LAKE ENHANCED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
FEATURE WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY
FALLING IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE LAKE 12-18Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ROBUST, THOUGH STILL
MODEST, OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HAVE A CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH BEFORE IT PIVOTS ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE WORTH MONITORING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW WILL BE ON THE TABLE
FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW THEN TAKES OVER
AS THE OPEN WAVE EXITS RESULTING IN A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 00Z.

THE STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -2C AT PRESENT TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUING IN WEAK FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO 20 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AS THE DGZ WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WRT ICE BEFORE LINGERING
MOISTURE EXITS LATE. NW FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PURE LES POTENTIAL,
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WILL FAVOR MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERIOR-
MICHIGAN BAND STRETCHING INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
A STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP LOWS EASILY ABOVE MODELED VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RAISED LOWS WED NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.

EDGEWAVE RACING EAST ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SUBZERO LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND -15 WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME. UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY,
THIS INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LONG
GONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
EXPANDING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE HURON.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TOMORROW AND COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE RAMPING UP TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERSISTING
WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A SMALL DECREASE ON THURSDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR COMING IN...FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED...AND MAY BE
HEAVY. A RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS AND LIKELY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1148 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
PIVOT SOUTHWARD INTO AREA AROUND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON. WHILE WNW FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL
ACT TO DRY OUT LOW LEVELS TO SOME EXTENT...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AROUND THIS LOW INTO AREA AND BRING MVFR CIGS
AND ALSO VSBYS AS SHSNS BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT...FIRST FOR
KMBS/KFNT/KPTK AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
LOW BASICALLY STATIONARY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MVFR TO LOWER
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SHSNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE...BUT MOST PERSISTENT KMBS/KFNT WHERE INTERVALS
OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS...AND AT TIMES VSBYS...
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TIME AS PERIODIC SHSNS
INCREASE. FLOW WILL REMAIN LARGELY WNW...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25
KNOTS DURING AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT...HIGH DURING DAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW OVERNIGHT
  THROUGH THE DAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-
     055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG/BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 090814
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
314 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A 999MB SURFACE LOW NEAR EXETER, ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN BY ANOTHER MB OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EMBEDDED
ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ONGOING ADVISORY EVENT IS
PANNING OUT IN REASONABLE FASHION AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING HEADLINE.

0730Z RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS BAND IS BEING
FORCED BY THE LEAD EDGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, REACHING
THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 6AM AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-
MORNING. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL REPRESENT THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT
SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE NE CWA.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AN INLAND ADJUSTMENT OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HURON, TUSCOLA, AND SANILAC COUNTIES. RADAR
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. BROAD ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW FROM ONTARIO TO LAKE HURON. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROWAL. FAR FROM A CLASSIC
TROWAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION, AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS REGION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL IR
AND WV. THE SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK FGEN ALONG THE TROWAL`S BACK EDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SHOW A SLOW CYCLONIC PIVOT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND IT
IS WITHIN THIS AXIS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, DISTANCE FROM THE RADAR, LACK OF REPORTS, AND A VOID
IN SURFACE OBS IS SEVERELY LIMITING DIAGNOSIS OF ACTUAL SNOW
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM HANDLED THE RELEVANT FEATURES WELL,
ITS QPF OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL. THAT HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z
NAM, WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE IN SPATIAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AND
CORRELATION WITH RELEVANT FEATURES. IT WILL REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROWAL, OR WHAT
REMAINS OF IT AFTER THE CIRCULATION OPENS, WILL RAPIDLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF 8 MILE. TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE LAKE ENHANCED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
FEATURE WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY
FALLING IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE LAKE 12-18Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ROBUST, THOUGH STILL
MODEST, OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HAVE A CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH BEFORE IT PIVOTS ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE WORTH MONITORING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW WILL BE ON THE TABLE
FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW THEN TAKES OVER
AS THE OPEN WAVE EXITS RESULTING IN A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 00Z.

THE STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -2C AT PRESENT TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUING IN WEAK FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO 20 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AS THE DGZ WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WRT ICE BEFORE LINGERING
MOISTURE EXITS LATE. NW FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PURE LES POTENTIAL,
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WILL FAVOR MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERIOR-
MICHIGAN BAND STRETCHING INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
A STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP LOWS EASILY ABOVE MODELED VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RAISED LOWS WED NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.

EDGEWAVE RACING EAST ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SUBZERO LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND -15 WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME. UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY,
THIS INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LONG
GONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
EXPANDING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE HURON.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TOMORROW AND COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE RAMPING UP TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERSISTING
WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A SMALL DECREASE ON THURSDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR COMING IN...FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED...AND MAY BE
HEAVY. A RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS AND LIKELY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1148 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
PIVOT SOUTHWARD INTO AREA AROUND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON. WHILE WNW FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL
ACT TO DRY OUT LOW LEVELS TO SOME EXTENT...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AROUND THIS LOW INTO AREA AND BRING MVFR CIGS
AND ALSO VSBYS AS SHSNS BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT...FIRST FOR
KMBS/KFNT/KPTK AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
LOW BASICALLY STATIONARY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MVFR TO LOWER
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SHSNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE...BUT MOST PERSISTENT KMBS/KFNT WHERE INTERVALS
OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS...AND AT TIMES VSBYS...
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TIME AS PERIODIC SHSNS
INCREASE. FLOW WILL REMAIN LARGELY WNW...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25
KNOTS DURING AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT...HIGH DURING DAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW OVERNIGHT
  THROUGH THE DAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-
     055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG/BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 090814
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
314 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A 999MB SURFACE LOW NEAR EXETER, ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN BY ANOTHER MB OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EMBEDDED
ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ONGOING ADVISORY EVENT IS
PANNING OUT IN REASONABLE FASHION AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING HEADLINE.

0730Z RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS BAND IS BEING
FORCED BY THE LEAD EDGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, REACHING
THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 6AM AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-
MORNING. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL REPRESENT THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT
SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE NE CWA.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AN INLAND ADJUSTMENT OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HURON, TUSCOLA, AND SANILAC COUNTIES. RADAR
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. BROAD ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW FROM ONTARIO TO LAKE HURON. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROWAL. FAR FROM A CLASSIC
TROWAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION, AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS REGION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL IR
AND WV. THE SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK FGEN ALONG THE TROWAL`S BACK EDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SHOW A SLOW CYCLONIC PIVOT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND IT
IS WITHIN THIS AXIS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, DISTANCE FROM THE RADAR, LACK OF REPORTS, AND A VOID
IN SURFACE OBS IS SEVERELY LIMITING DIAGNOSIS OF ACTUAL SNOW
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM HANDLED THE RELEVANT FEATURES WELL,
ITS QPF OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL. THAT HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z
NAM, WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE IN SPATIAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AND
CORRELATION WITH RELEVANT FEATURES. IT WILL REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROWAL, OR WHAT
REMAINS OF IT AFTER THE CIRCULATION OPENS, WILL RAPIDLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF 8 MILE. TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE LAKE ENHANCED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
FEATURE WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY
FALLING IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE LAKE 12-18Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ROBUST, THOUGH STILL
MODEST, OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HAVE A CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH BEFORE IT PIVOTS ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE WORTH MONITORING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW WILL BE ON THE TABLE
FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW THEN TAKES OVER
AS THE OPEN WAVE EXITS RESULTING IN A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 00Z.

THE STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -2C AT PRESENT TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUING IN WEAK FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO 20 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AS THE DGZ WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WRT ICE BEFORE LINGERING
MOISTURE EXITS LATE. NW FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PURE LES POTENTIAL,
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WILL FAVOR MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERIOR-
MICHIGAN BAND STRETCHING INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
A STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP LOWS EASILY ABOVE MODELED VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RAISED LOWS WED NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.

EDGEWAVE RACING EAST ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SUBZERO LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND -15 WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME. UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY,
THIS INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LONG
GONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
EXPANDING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE HURON.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TOMORROW AND COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE RAMPING UP TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERSISTING
WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A SMALL DECREASE ON THURSDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR COMING IN...FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED...AND MAY BE
HEAVY. A RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS AND LIKELY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1148 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
PIVOT SOUTHWARD INTO AREA AROUND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON. WHILE WNW FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL
ACT TO DRY OUT LOW LEVELS TO SOME EXTENT...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AROUND THIS LOW INTO AREA AND BRING MVFR CIGS
AND ALSO VSBYS AS SHSNS BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT...FIRST FOR
KMBS/KFNT/KPTK AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
LOW BASICALLY STATIONARY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MVFR TO LOWER
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SHSNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE...BUT MOST PERSISTENT KMBS/KFNT WHERE INTERVALS
OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS...AND AT TIMES VSBYS...
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TIME AS PERIODIC SHSNS
INCREASE. FLOW WILL REMAIN LARGELY WNW...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25
KNOTS DURING AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT...HIGH DURING DAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW OVERNIGHT
  THROUGH THE DAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-
     055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG/BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 090646
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

RECENTLY RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF UP TO 9 INCHES OF SN IN THE
IRONWOOD AREA...WITH SN FALLING AT AN INCH OR TWO PER HR. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYC UPSLOPE NNW FLOW/SHARP LLVL CNVGC FCST TO PERSIST IN
THIS AREA THRU THE NGT BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS...LINGERING DEEP
MSTR INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY...FALLING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C BY 12Z
TUE...AND FAVORABLE SN/WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET AGL THAT COINCIDES WITH SHARP LLVL UVV MAX...OPTED TO
UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO AN LES WARNING FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES DESPITE RATHER LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 SHOWN ON 00Z
INL RAOB AND FCST SDNGS FOR THE WRN CWA AS WELL AS LLVL DRY AIR OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD UPWIND OF LK SUP. EXPECT STORM TOTAL SN TO APRCH 18
INCHES IN SOME PLACES. THE NNW FLOW WL NOT BE AS FVRBL FOR THE
KEWEENAW...SO HELD ON TO AN ADVY FOR THAT AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TO START TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL STILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NW CANADA DOWN THROUGH E ND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH N WINDS AT 900MB OF 25-
30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME THE 500MB TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE CWA...HELPING ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING N WIND LES. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -22C...WITH
A MORE MODERATE -15 TO -20C OVER MUCH OF THE E.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO FAR
W ONTARIO AND MN. EXPECT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 5-7KFT CWA
WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY OVER THE W
HALF STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

LOOK FOR THE PREDOMINATE N WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF A MORE NW DIRECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAKING GOGEBIC OUT OF
THE LES. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING LES CWA WIDE WITH THE
NEARING RIDGE FROM THE W...A SINKING TROUGH FROM N ONTARIO WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH ALREADY OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SET UP
AS A LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NEW YORK ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE STRENGTHENING 1045MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
TO SINK ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN ON SATURDAY AND SETTLE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AND STILL N-NNW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR N CENTRAL. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF UPPER MI WILL FALL BELOW
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE S-SW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES BEYOND
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND THEN. WHILE BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MAIN 500MB LOW OFF THE E COAST
SUNDAY...THEY DO SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS SLIDING IN FROM THE N
PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME AT THOSE
SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR SAW...VFR/MVFR WX EARLY WL GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS LASTER THIS MRNG AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER
MSTR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 090646
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

RECENTLY RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF UP TO 9 INCHES OF SN IN THE
IRONWOOD AREA...WITH SN FALLING AT AN INCH OR TWO PER HR. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYC UPSLOPE NNW FLOW/SHARP LLVL CNVGC FCST TO PERSIST IN
THIS AREA THRU THE NGT BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS...LINGERING DEEP
MSTR INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY...FALLING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C BY 12Z
TUE...AND FAVORABLE SN/WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET AGL THAT COINCIDES WITH SHARP LLVL UVV MAX...OPTED TO
UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO AN LES WARNING FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES DESPITE RATHER LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 SHOWN ON 00Z
INL RAOB AND FCST SDNGS FOR THE WRN CWA AS WELL AS LLVL DRY AIR OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD UPWIND OF LK SUP. EXPECT STORM TOTAL SN TO APRCH 18
INCHES IN SOME PLACES. THE NNW FLOW WL NOT BE AS FVRBL FOR THE
KEWEENAW...SO HELD ON TO AN ADVY FOR THAT AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TO START TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL STILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NW CANADA DOWN THROUGH E ND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH N WINDS AT 900MB OF 25-
30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME THE 500MB TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE CWA...HELPING ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING N WIND LES. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -22C...WITH
A MORE MODERATE -15 TO -20C OVER MUCH OF THE E.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO FAR
W ONTARIO AND MN. EXPECT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 5-7KFT CWA
WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY OVER THE W
HALF STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

LOOK FOR THE PREDOMINATE N WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF A MORE NW DIRECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAKING GOGEBIC OUT OF
THE LES. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING LES CWA WIDE WITH THE
NEARING RIDGE FROM THE W...A SINKING TROUGH FROM N ONTARIO WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH ALREADY OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SET UP
AS A LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NEW YORK ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE STRENGTHENING 1045MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
TO SINK ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN ON SATURDAY AND SETTLE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AND STILL N-NNW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR N CENTRAL. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF UPPER MI WILL FALL BELOW
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE S-SW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES BEYOND
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND THEN. WHILE BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MAIN 500MB LOW OFF THE E COAST
SUNDAY...THEY DO SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS SLIDING IN FROM THE N
PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME AT THOSE
SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR SAW...VFR/MVFR WX EARLY WL GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS LASTER THIS MRNG AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER
MSTR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 090646
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

RECENTLY RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF UP TO 9 INCHES OF SN IN THE
IRONWOOD AREA...WITH SN FALLING AT AN INCH OR TWO PER HR. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYC UPSLOPE NNW FLOW/SHARP LLVL CNVGC FCST TO PERSIST IN
THIS AREA THRU THE NGT BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS...LINGERING DEEP
MSTR INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY...FALLING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C BY 12Z
TUE...AND FAVORABLE SN/WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET AGL THAT COINCIDES WITH SHARP LLVL UVV MAX...OPTED TO
UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO AN LES WARNING FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES DESPITE RATHER LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 SHOWN ON 00Z
INL RAOB AND FCST SDNGS FOR THE WRN CWA AS WELL AS LLVL DRY AIR OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD UPWIND OF LK SUP. EXPECT STORM TOTAL SN TO APRCH 18
INCHES IN SOME PLACES. THE NNW FLOW WL NOT BE AS FVRBL FOR THE
KEWEENAW...SO HELD ON TO AN ADVY FOR THAT AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TO START TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL STILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NW CANADA DOWN THROUGH E ND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH N WINDS AT 900MB OF 25-
30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME THE 500MB TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE CWA...HELPING ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING N WIND LES. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -22C...WITH
A MORE MODERATE -15 TO -20C OVER MUCH OF THE E.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO FAR
W ONTARIO AND MN. EXPECT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 5-7KFT CWA
WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY OVER THE W
HALF STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

LOOK FOR THE PREDOMINATE N WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF A MORE NW DIRECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAKING GOGEBIC OUT OF
THE LES. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING LES CWA WIDE WITH THE
NEARING RIDGE FROM THE W...A SINKING TROUGH FROM N ONTARIO WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH ALREADY OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SET UP
AS A LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NEW YORK ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE STRENGTHENING 1045MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
TO SINK ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN ON SATURDAY AND SETTLE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AND STILL N-NNW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR N CENTRAL. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF UPPER MI WILL FALL BELOW
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE S-SW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES BEYOND
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND THEN. WHILE BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MAIN 500MB LOW OFF THE E COAST
SUNDAY...THEY DO SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS SLIDING IN FROM THE N
PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME AT THOSE
SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR SAW...VFR/MVFR WX EARLY WL GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS LASTER THIS MRNG AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER
MSTR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 090646
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

RECENTLY RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF UP TO 9 INCHES OF SN IN THE
IRONWOOD AREA...WITH SN FALLING AT AN INCH OR TWO PER HR. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYC UPSLOPE NNW FLOW/SHARP LLVL CNVGC FCST TO PERSIST IN
THIS AREA THRU THE NGT BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS...LINGERING DEEP
MSTR INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY...FALLING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C BY 12Z
TUE...AND FAVORABLE SN/WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET AGL THAT COINCIDES WITH SHARP LLVL UVV MAX...OPTED TO
UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO AN LES WARNING FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES DESPITE RATHER LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 SHOWN ON 00Z
INL RAOB AND FCST SDNGS FOR THE WRN CWA AS WELL AS LLVL DRY AIR OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD UPWIND OF LK SUP. EXPECT STORM TOTAL SN TO APRCH 18
INCHES IN SOME PLACES. THE NNW FLOW WL NOT BE AS FVRBL FOR THE
KEWEENAW...SO HELD ON TO AN ADVY FOR THAT AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TO START TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL STILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NW CANADA DOWN THROUGH E ND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH N WINDS AT 900MB OF 25-
30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME THE 500MB TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE CWA...HELPING ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING N WIND LES. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -22C...WITH
A MORE MODERATE -15 TO -20C OVER MUCH OF THE E.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO FAR
W ONTARIO AND MN. EXPECT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 5-7KFT CWA
WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY OVER THE W
HALF STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

LOOK FOR THE PREDOMINATE N WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF A MORE NW DIRECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAKING GOGEBIC OUT OF
THE LES. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING LES CWA WIDE WITH THE
NEARING RIDGE FROM THE W...A SINKING TROUGH FROM N ONTARIO WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH ALREADY OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SET UP
AS A LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NEW YORK ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE STRENGTHENING 1045MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
TO SINK ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN ON SATURDAY AND SETTLE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AND STILL N-NNW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR N CENTRAL. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF UPPER MI WILL FALL BELOW
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE S-SW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES BEYOND
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND THEN. WHILE BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MAIN 500MB LOW OFF THE E COAST
SUNDAY...THEY DO SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS SLIDING IN FROM THE N
PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME AT THOSE
SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR SAW...VFR/MVFR WX EARLY WL GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS LASTER THIS MRNG AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER
MSTR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KMQT 090646
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

RECENTLY RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF UP TO 9 INCHES OF SN IN THE
IRONWOOD AREA...WITH SN FALLING AT AN INCH OR TWO PER HR. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYC UPSLOPE NNW FLOW/SHARP LLVL CNVGC FCST TO PERSIST IN
THIS AREA THRU THE NGT BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS...LINGERING DEEP
MSTR INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY...FALLING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C BY 12Z
TUE...AND FAVORABLE SN/WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET AGL THAT COINCIDES WITH SHARP LLVL UVV MAX...OPTED TO
UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO AN LES WARNING FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES DESPITE RATHER LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 SHOWN ON 00Z
INL RAOB AND FCST SDNGS FOR THE WRN CWA AS WELL AS LLVL DRY AIR OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD UPWIND OF LK SUP. EXPECT STORM TOTAL SN TO APRCH 18
INCHES IN SOME PLACES. THE NNW FLOW WL NOT BE AS FVRBL FOR THE
KEWEENAW...SO HELD ON TO AN ADVY FOR THAT AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TO START TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL STILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NW CANADA DOWN THROUGH E ND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH N WINDS AT 900MB OF 25-
30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME THE 500MB TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE CWA...HELPING ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING N WIND LES. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -22C...WITH
A MORE MODERATE -15 TO -20C OVER MUCH OF THE E.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO FAR
W ONTARIO AND MN. EXPECT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 5-7KFT CWA
WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY OVER THE W
HALF STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

LOOK FOR THE PREDOMINATE N WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF A MORE NW DIRECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAKING GOGEBIC OUT OF
THE LES. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING LES CWA WIDE WITH THE
NEARING RIDGE FROM THE W...A SINKING TROUGH FROM N ONTARIO WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH ALREADY OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SET UP
AS A LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NEW YORK ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE STRENGTHENING 1045MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
TO SINK ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN ON SATURDAY AND SETTLE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AND STILL N-NNW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR N CENTRAL. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF UPPER MI WILL FALL BELOW
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE S-SW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES BEYOND
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND THEN. WHILE BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MAIN 500MB LOW OFF THE E COAST
SUNDAY...THEY DO SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS SLIDING IN FROM THE N
PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME AT THOSE
SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR SAW...VFR/MVFR WX EARLY WL GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS LASTER THIS MRNG AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER
MSTR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KAPX 090456
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

KIND OF A CHAOTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE 1000
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. APX RADAR
SHOWED THAT ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR BUT THAT RETURNS
WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
MEANWHILE...STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO GET THE GREAT LAKES
INVOLVED WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT (APX 09/00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURE -6.5
C)...THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THAT LAKE ANYWAYS.
OVERALL...EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER TWO INCHES (HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKES).
REMAINING MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 11 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 090456
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

KIND OF A CHAOTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE 1000
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. APX RADAR
SHOWED THAT ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR BUT THAT RETURNS
WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
MEANWHILE...STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO GET THE GREAT LAKES
INVOLVED WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT (APX 09/00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURE -6.5
C)...THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THAT LAKE ANYWAYS.
OVERALL...EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER TWO INCHES (HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKES).
REMAINING MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 11 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 090456
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

KIND OF A CHAOTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE 1000
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. APX RADAR
SHOWED THAT ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR BUT THAT RETURNS
WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
MEANWHILE...STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO GET THE GREAT LAKES
INVOLVED WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT (APX 09/00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURE -6.5
C)...THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THAT LAKE ANYWAYS.
OVERALL...EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER TWO INCHES (HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKES).
REMAINING MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 11 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 090456
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

KIND OF A CHAOTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE 1000
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. APX RADAR
SHOWED THAT ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR BUT THAT RETURNS
WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
MEANWHILE...STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO GET THE GREAT LAKES
INVOLVED WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT (APX 09/00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURE -6.5
C)...THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THAT LAKE ANYWAYS.
OVERALL...EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER TWO INCHES (HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKES).
REMAINING MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 11 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 090456
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

KIND OF A CHAOTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE 1000
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. APX RADAR
SHOWED THAT ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR BUT THAT RETURNS
WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
MEANWHILE...STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO GET THE GREAT LAKES
INVOLVED WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT (APX 09/00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURE -6.5
C)...THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THAT LAKE ANYWAYS.
OVERALL...EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER TWO INCHES (HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKES).
REMAINING MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 11 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR



000
FXUS63 KGRR 090453
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1153 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL START UP SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LIKELY LAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THE AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TWEAKED POPS TO REPRESENT MORE OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP. THE LAKE
EFFECT REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL AFTER 09Z OR SO.

MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-96 WITH AN AREA OF INSTABILITY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER INCREASED POPS OVER THE NE CWA WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SNOW BACK WESTWARD. THIS LEAVES THE NW
CWA WITH THE LOWEST POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY INCREASE
IN THIS REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY ARRIVES AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOP.

WITH THIS SAID...THE SNOW WILL STAY LIGHT AND ACCUMS WILL STAY
LIGHT THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN AN
INCH OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE PERHAPS SEEING AN INCH OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE THU MORNING COMMUTE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY FOR THE LAKESHORE
AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CRAWLING ONSHORE ACROSS THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS TREND A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE BEST SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WRN VAN
BUREN COUNTY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND. WE ARE THINKING 1-3 INCHES
THERE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE SMALL
ENOUGH WE DID NOT INCLUDE THIS PERIOD IN THE ADVISORY.

THINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THEN INTO TUE AFTERNOON AS WE
TRANSITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED BEGINNING LATER TUE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CAUSE TOO MANY ISSUES WITH THE BEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION YET TO OCCUR. DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO...THE ERN EDGE OF
THE CWFA COULD GET IN ON A LITTLE OF THE LIGHT SNOW ON THE FAR WRN
FLANK OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE ERN LAKES. THIS IS NOT FOR SURE...AND
ANY SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING.

LATER TUE AFTERNOON IS WHEN WE EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO START BECOMING A NOTICEABLE FACTOR. THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF MUSKEGON AND NEAR HOLLAND AND
AREAS SOUTH. NW LAKE COUNTY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME HEALTHY
AMOUNTS. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A NNW FLOW REGIME FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS WITH SHORT WAVES IN
THE UPPER FLOW. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES ARE BASED ON THE AREAS WHERE
THE PREDOMINATELY STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNALS ARE...WHICH
LINES UP WELL WITH THE NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT FLOW REGIME.

OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO AROUND THE LOWER 20S C BY TUE EVENING AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH
WED NIGHT AND BEYOND. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING TO ALMOST
10K FEET BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT WILL
LIKELY COME DURING THAT TIME WITH A BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THE DGZ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ALSO AS
IT WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL LIKELY IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND COINCIDING
WITH THE BETTER CONVERGENCE.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WED
NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL A LITTLE...BUT THINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE ENOUGH THAT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT THU MORNING IN THE
FAVORED AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. USUALLY THIS MEANS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
TRACKING ALONG IT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS THIS FRONT NEARS.  SOME IMPACTS POSSIBLE AS THE RISK FOR
SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY EXISTS.  THEN BEHIND
THE FRONT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND DIVERGENT.
COMMONLY THIS CAUSES THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND A DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THIS FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE SUPPORTS PUSHING THE MAIN SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE.
ON SATURDAY. IMPACTS FROM THE COLD ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN AS SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS UP.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST.  SOMETIMES THESE SETUPS LEAD TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE LAKESHORE.  WILL FEATURE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS GOING FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

IFR CIGS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND WILL
PROBABLY LINGER MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS
ARRIVES TOWARD 12Z.

PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH OCNL
IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MKG AND AZO.
MAINLY FLURRIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BUT SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS EITHER.

THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF IFR SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AT LAN DUE TO AN AREA OF SNOW BACKING WESTWARD FROM
LK HURON AND THE THUMB.

AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS BY 18Z OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 00Z THU WITH
THIS FCST ISSUANCE. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SHOULD HOLD THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ON WED. THERE IS A CHC THAT WINDS COULD APPROACH GALES AT TIMES...
HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KDTX 090448
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1148 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
PIVOT SOUTHWARD INTO AREA AROUND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON. WHILE WNW FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL
ACT TO DRY OUT LOW LEVELS TO SOME EXTENT...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AROUND THIS LOW INTO AREA AND BRING MVFR CIGS
AND ALSO VSBYS AS SHSNS BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT...FIRST FOR
KMBS/KFNT/KPTK AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
LOW BASICALLY STATIONARY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MVFR TO LOWER
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SHSNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE...BUT MOST PERSISTENT KMBS/KFNT WHERE INTERVALS
OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS...AND AT TIMES VSBYS...
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TIME AS PERIODIC SHSNS
INCREASE. FLOW WILL REMAIN LARGELY WNW...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25
KNOTS DURING AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT...HIGH DURING DAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW OVERNIGHT
  THROUGH THE DAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30 TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH HAS REMAINED SUFFICIENT IN KEEPING
THE RETURNS STREAMING INTO PORT HURON AND THE EASTERN THUMB REGION
ALL RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING DUE BOTH TO NIGHTTIME BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THESE RETURNS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION EXTENDING FROM NRN OHIO INTO SRN LAKE
HURON. THE REGIONAL WATER VAPOR LOOP TODAY HAS INDICATED SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS SYSTEM AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
NOW OVER THE OH/KY BORDER. THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE MI. THE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD SRN LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDES INTO NRN INDIANA. THIS WILL IN TURN DRIVE THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE THUMB REGION DURING THE NIGHT. LATEST HI RES
SUITE ALL GENERALLY SUGGEST THE STRONGER PUSH OF DEFORMATION WILL BE
A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE THUMB REGION TONIGHT AS IT
APPEARS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL FOSTER A MORE COMPACT REGION OF
FORCING. MEANWHILE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE EMERGED UNDER THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL OVER SRN LAKE MI/SW LOWER MI. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE
VICINITY OF EITHER THE ERN THUMB/SRN LAKE HURON OR JUST EAST OF
METRO DETROIT INTO TUES AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THE DEFORMATION REGION OPENS UP AND TRANSITIONS WEST AND
SOUTH. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TUES
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE REMNANT LARGE SCALE FORCING TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND INTO METRO DETROIT/ANN ARBOR AND PTS
SOUTH. STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO BOOST
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE HURON. THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST
TUES NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A LAKE ENHANCED SFC TROUGH INTO
THE THUMB REGION...POSSIBLY BOOSTING SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS HURON
COUNTY TUES NIGHT. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE SNOW TRANSITION TO NMRS/SCT SNOW SHOWERS. RESIDUAL DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD HOWEVER SUPPORT SOME
INTENSE SNOWFALL OUT OF SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

AS FAR AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THERE WILL BE NO AREAL
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY ATTM. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL HOWEVER SUPPORT EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY END TIME A LITTLE LATER INTO TUES EVENING. THE MAIN
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES ATTM REVOLVE AROUND HOW FAR WEST INTO FLINT
AND THE TRI CITIES REGIONS THE STRONGER DEFORMATION WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND HOW WELL THE LARGE SCALE FORCING HOLDS TOGETHER LATE IN
THE DAY SOUTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR. GIVEN FAIRLY RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE QUALITY WITH 850MB MIXING RATIOS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 G/KG AND
GIVEN A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF LOW STATIC STABILITY WITH THE MID LEVEL
COLD POOL IN THE VICINITY...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME REGIONS OF
ENHANCED FORCING WHICH MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF HIGH INTENSITY
SNOWFALL RATES. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST SOME NEAR TERM FORECAST
UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS AROUND 10:1 TONIGHT RISING TO
ROUGHLY 12:1 BY LATE TUESDAY AND WITH TOTAL QPF /TONIGHT THROUGH
TUES NIGHT/ POSSIBLY OVER A HALF INCH IN THE THUMB TO A TENTH OR
LESS SOUTH OF M 59...TOTAL FCST SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 7 INCHES LOOK
REASONABLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA /DROPPING TO AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH
OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR/.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOCUSES ON SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWEEPING
THROUGH. SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH IS TYPICALLY A DRIER
FLOW FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -20
RESULTING IN GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATED WRT ICE UP PAST 10KFT
EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IN THE DGZ. THINK WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY STILL LIKELY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.

HIGH TEMPS WED THRU FRI EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
20 BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BLASTS IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW SWEEPS
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TURNS SURFACE
WINDS TO A NNW DIRECTION. FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AIRMASS ALL YEAR...WITH GEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND -25C. HEART OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FRI/SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SAT. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS EVEN COLDER. THERE IS LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FRIDAY ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AREAWIDE...WITH
SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
EXPANDING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE HURON.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TOMORROW AND COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE RAMPING UP TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERSISTING
WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A SMALL DECREASE ON THURSDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR COMING IN...FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED...AND MAY BE
HEAVY. A RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS AND LIKELY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ049-054-055-
     062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG/BT
DISCUSSION...SC/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 090448
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1148 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
PIVOT SOUTHWARD INTO AREA AROUND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON. WHILE WNW FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL
ACT TO DRY OUT LOW LEVELS TO SOME EXTENT...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AROUND THIS LOW INTO AREA AND BRING MVFR CIGS
AND ALSO VSBYS AS SHSNS BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT...FIRST FOR
KMBS/KFNT/KPTK AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
LOW BASICALLY STATIONARY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MVFR TO LOWER
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SHSNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE...BUT MOST PERSISTENT KMBS/KFNT WHERE INTERVALS
OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS...AND AT TIMES VSBYS...
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TIME AS PERIODIC SHSNS
INCREASE. FLOW WILL REMAIN LARGELY WNW...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25
KNOTS DURING AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT...HIGH DURING DAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW OVERNIGHT
  THROUGH THE DAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30 TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH HAS REMAINED SUFFICIENT IN KEEPING
THE RETURNS STREAMING INTO PORT HURON AND THE EASTERN THUMB REGION
ALL RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING DUE BOTH TO NIGHTTIME BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THESE RETURNS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION EXTENDING FROM NRN OHIO INTO SRN LAKE
HURON. THE REGIONAL WATER VAPOR LOOP TODAY HAS INDICATED SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS SYSTEM AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
NOW OVER THE OH/KY BORDER. THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE MI. THE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD SRN LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDES INTO NRN INDIANA. THIS WILL IN TURN DRIVE THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE THUMB REGION DURING THE NIGHT. LATEST HI RES
SUITE ALL GENERALLY SUGGEST THE STRONGER PUSH OF DEFORMATION WILL BE
A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE THUMB REGION TONIGHT AS IT
APPEARS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL FOSTER A MORE COMPACT REGION OF
FORCING. MEANWHILE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE EMERGED UNDER THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL OVER SRN LAKE MI/SW LOWER MI. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE
VICINITY OF EITHER THE ERN THUMB/SRN LAKE HURON OR JUST EAST OF
METRO DETROIT INTO TUES AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THE DEFORMATION REGION OPENS UP AND TRANSITIONS WEST AND
SOUTH. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TUES
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE REMNANT LARGE SCALE FORCING TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND INTO METRO DETROIT/ANN ARBOR AND PTS
SOUTH. STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO BOOST
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE HURON. THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST
TUES NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A LAKE ENHANCED SFC TROUGH INTO
THE THUMB REGION...POSSIBLY BOOSTING SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS HURON
COUNTY TUES NIGHT. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE SNOW TRANSITION TO NMRS/SCT SNOW SHOWERS. RESIDUAL DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD HOWEVER SUPPORT SOME
INTENSE SNOWFALL OUT OF SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

AS FAR AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THERE WILL BE NO AREAL
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY ATTM. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL HOWEVER SUPPORT EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY END TIME A LITTLE LATER INTO TUES EVENING. THE MAIN
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES ATTM REVOLVE AROUND HOW FAR WEST INTO FLINT
AND THE TRI CITIES REGIONS THE STRONGER DEFORMATION WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND HOW WELL THE LARGE SCALE FORCING HOLDS TOGETHER LATE IN
THE DAY SOUTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR. GIVEN FAIRLY RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE QUALITY WITH 850MB MIXING RATIOS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 G/KG AND
GIVEN A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF LOW STATIC STABILITY WITH THE MID LEVEL
COLD POOL IN THE VICINITY...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME REGIONS OF
ENHANCED FORCING WHICH MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF HIGH INTENSITY
SNOWFALL RATES. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST SOME NEAR TERM FORECAST
UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS AROUND 10:1 TONIGHT RISING TO
ROUGHLY 12:1 BY LATE TUESDAY AND WITH TOTAL QPF /TONIGHT THROUGH
TUES NIGHT/ POSSIBLY OVER A HALF INCH IN THE THUMB TO A TENTH OR
LESS SOUTH OF M 59...TOTAL FCST SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 7 INCHES LOOK
REASONABLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA /DROPPING TO AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH
OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR/.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOCUSES ON SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWEEPING
THROUGH. SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH IS TYPICALLY A DRIER
FLOW FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -20
RESULTING IN GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATED WRT ICE UP PAST 10KFT
EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IN THE DGZ. THINK WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY STILL LIKELY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.

HIGH TEMPS WED THRU FRI EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
20 BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BLASTS IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW SWEEPS
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TURNS SURFACE
WINDS TO A NNW DIRECTION. FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AIRMASS ALL YEAR...WITH GEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND -25C. HEART OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FRI/SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SAT. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS EVEN COLDER. THERE IS LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FRIDAY ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AREAWIDE...WITH
SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
EXPANDING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE HURON.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TOMORROW AND COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE RAMPING UP TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERSISTING
WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A SMALL DECREASE ON THURSDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR COMING IN...FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED...AND MAY BE
HEAVY. A RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS AND LIKELY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ049-054-055-
     062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG/BT
DISCUSSION...SC/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 090448
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1148 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
PIVOT SOUTHWARD INTO AREA AROUND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON. WHILE WNW FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL
ACT TO DRY OUT LOW LEVELS TO SOME EXTENT...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AROUND THIS LOW INTO AREA AND BRING MVFR CIGS
AND ALSO VSBYS AS SHSNS BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT...FIRST FOR
KMBS/KFNT/KPTK AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
LOW BASICALLY STATIONARY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MVFR TO LOWER
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SHSNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE...BUT MOST PERSISTENT KMBS/KFNT WHERE INTERVALS
OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS...AND AT TIMES VSBYS...
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TIME AS PERIODIC SHSNS
INCREASE. FLOW WILL REMAIN LARGELY WNW...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25
KNOTS DURING AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT...HIGH DURING DAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW OVERNIGHT
  THROUGH THE DAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30 TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH HAS REMAINED SUFFICIENT IN KEEPING
THE RETURNS STREAMING INTO PORT HURON AND THE EASTERN THUMB REGION
ALL RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING DUE BOTH TO NIGHTTIME BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THESE RETURNS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION EXTENDING FROM NRN OHIO INTO SRN LAKE
HURON. THE REGIONAL WATER VAPOR LOOP TODAY HAS INDICATED SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS SYSTEM AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
NOW OVER THE OH/KY BORDER. THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE MI. THE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD SRN LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDES INTO NRN INDIANA. THIS WILL IN TURN DRIVE THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE THUMB REGION DURING THE NIGHT. LATEST HI RES
SUITE ALL GENERALLY SUGGEST THE STRONGER PUSH OF DEFORMATION WILL BE
A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE THUMB REGION TONIGHT AS IT
APPEARS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL FOSTER A MORE COMPACT REGION OF
FORCING. MEANWHILE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE EMERGED UNDER THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL OVER SRN LAKE MI/SW LOWER MI. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE
VICINITY OF EITHER THE ERN THUMB/SRN LAKE HURON OR JUST EAST OF
METRO DETROIT INTO TUES AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THE DEFORMATION REGION OPENS UP AND TRANSITIONS WEST AND
SOUTH. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TUES
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE REMNANT LARGE SCALE FORCING TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND INTO METRO DETROIT/ANN ARBOR AND PTS
SOUTH. STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO BOOST
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE HURON. THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST
TUES NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A LAKE ENHANCED SFC TROUGH INTO
THE THUMB REGION...POSSIBLY BOOSTING SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS HURON
COUNTY TUES NIGHT. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE SNOW TRANSITION TO NMRS/SCT SNOW SHOWERS. RESIDUAL DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD HOWEVER SUPPORT SOME
INTENSE SNOWFALL OUT OF SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

AS FAR AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THERE WILL BE NO AREAL
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY ATTM. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL HOWEVER SUPPORT EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY END TIME A LITTLE LATER INTO TUES EVENING. THE MAIN
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES ATTM REVOLVE AROUND HOW FAR WEST INTO FLINT
AND THE TRI CITIES REGIONS THE STRONGER DEFORMATION WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND HOW WELL THE LARGE SCALE FORCING HOLDS TOGETHER LATE IN
THE DAY SOUTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR. GIVEN FAIRLY RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE QUALITY WITH 850MB MIXING RATIOS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 G/KG AND
GIVEN A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF LOW STATIC STABILITY WITH THE MID LEVEL
COLD POOL IN THE VICINITY...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME REGIONS OF
ENHANCED FORCING WHICH MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF HIGH INTENSITY
SNOWFALL RATES. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST SOME NEAR TERM FORECAST
UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS AROUND 10:1 TONIGHT RISING TO
ROUGHLY 12:1 BY LATE TUESDAY AND WITH TOTAL QPF /TONIGHT THROUGH
TUES NIGHT/ POSSIBLY OVER A HALF INCH IN THE THUMB TO A TENTH OR
LESS SOUTH OF M 59...TOTAL FCST SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 7 INCHES LOOK
REASONABLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA /DROPPING TO AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH
OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR/.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOCUSES ON SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWEEPING
THROUGH. SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH IS TYPICALLY A DRIER
FLOW FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -20
RESULTING IN GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATED WRT ICE UP PAST 10KFT
EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IN THE DGZ. THINK WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY STILL LIKELY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.

HIGH TEMPS WED THRU FRI EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
20 BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BLASTS IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW SWEEPS
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TURNS SURFACE
WINDS TO A NNW DIRECTION. FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AIRMASS ALL YEAR...WITH GEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND -25C. HEART OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FRI/SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SAT. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS EVEN COLDER. THERE IS LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FRIDAY ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AREAWIDE...WITH
SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
EXPANDING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE HURON.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TOMORROW AND COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE RAMPING UP TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERSISTING
WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A SMALL DECREASE ON THURSDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR COMING IN...FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED...AND MAY BE
HEAVY. A RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS AND LIKELY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ049-054-055-
     062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG/BT
DISCUSSION...SC/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 090356
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1056 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL START UP SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LIKELY LAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THE AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TWEAKED POPS TO REPRESENT MORE OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP. THE LAKE
EFFECT REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL AFTER 09Z OR SO.

MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-96 WITH AN AREA OF INSTABILITY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER INCREASED POPS OVER THE NE CWA WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SNOW BACK WESTWARD. THIS LEAVES THE NW
CWA WITH THE LOWEST POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY INCREASE
IN THIS REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY ARRIVES AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOP.

WITH THIS SAID...THE SNOW WILL STAY LIGHT AND ACCUMS WILL STAY
LIGHT THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN AN
INCH OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE PERHAPS SEEING AN INCH OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE THU MORNING COMMUTE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY FOR THE LAKESHORE
AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CRAWLING ONSHORE ACROSS THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS TREND A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE BEST SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WRN VAN
BUREN COUNTY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND. WE ARE THINKING 1-3 INCHES
THERE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE SMALL
ENOUGH WE DID NOT INCLUDE THIS PERIOD IN THE ADVISORY.

THINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THEN INTO TUE AFTERNOON AS WE
TRANSITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED BEGINNING LATER TUE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CAUSE TOO MANY ISSUES WITH THE BEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION YET TO OCCUR. DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO...THE ERN EDGE OF
THE CWFA COULD GET IN ON A LITTLE OF THE LIGHT SNOW ON THE FAR WRN
FLANK OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE ERN LAKES. THIS IS NOT FOR SURE...AND
ANY SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING.

LATER TUE AFTERNOON IS WHEN WE EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO START BECOMING A NOTICEABLE FACTOR. THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF MUSKEGON AND NEAR HOLLAND AND
AREAS SOUTH. NW LAKE COUNTY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME HEALTHY
AMOUNTS. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A NNW FLOW REGIME FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS WITH SHORT WAVES IN
THE UPPER FLOW. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES ARE BASED ON THE AREAS WHERE
THE PREDOMINATELY STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNALS ARE...WHICH
LINES UP WELL WITH THE NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT FLOW REGIME.

OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO AROUND THE LOWER 20S C BY TUE EVENING AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH
WED NIGHT AND BEYOND. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING TO ALMOST
10K FEET BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT WILL
LIKELY COME DURING THAT TIME WITH A BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THE DGZ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ALSO AS
IT WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL LIKELY IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND COINCIDING
WITH THE BETTER CONVERGENCE.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WED
NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL A LITTLE...BUT THINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE ENOUGH THAT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT THU MORNING IN THE
FAVORED AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. USUALLY THIS MEANS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
TRACKING ALONG IT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS THIS FRONT NEARS.  SOME IMPACTS POSSIBLE AS THE RISK FOR
SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY EXISTS.  THEN BEHIND
THE FRONT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND DIVERGENT.
COMMONLY THIS CAUSES THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND A DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THIS FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE SUPPORTS PUSHING THE MAIN SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE.
ON SATURDAY. IMPACTS FROM THE COLD ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN AS SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS UP.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST.  SOMETIMES THESE SETUPS LEAD TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE LAKESHORE.  WILL FEATURE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS GOING FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR WEST AND
SOUTH OF GRR WHERE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR... TO VFR EAST OF GRR.
EVENTUALLY ALL THE TERMINALS SHOULD TREND INTO MVFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SOME OCNL IFR PERSISTING MAINLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF GRR. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS BY 18Z OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 00Z THU WITH
THIS FCST ISSUANCE. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SHOULD HOLD THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ON WED. THERE IS A CHC THAT WINDS COULD APPROACH GALES AT TIMES...
HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 090356
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1056 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL START UP SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LIKELY LAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THE AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TWEAKED POPS TO REPRESENT MORE OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP. THE LAKE
EFFECT REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL AFTER 09Z OR SO.

MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-96 WITH AN AREA OF INSTABILITY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER INCREASED POPS OVER THE NE CWA WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SNOW BACK WESTWARD. THIS LEAVES THE NW
CWA WITH THE LOWEST POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY INCREASE
IN THIS REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY ARRIVES AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOP.

WITH THIS SAID...THE SNOW WILL STAY LIGHT AND ACCUMS WILL STAY
LIGHT THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN AN
INCH OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE PERHAPS SEEING AN INCH OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE THU MORNING COMMUTE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY FOR THE LAKESHORE
AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CRAWLING ONSHORE ACROSS THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS TREND A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE BEST SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WRN VAN
BUREN COUNTY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND. WE ARE THINKING 1-3 INCHES
THERE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE SMALL
ENOUGH WE DID NOT INCLUDE THIS PERIOD IN THE ADVISORY.

THINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THEN INTO TUE AFTERNOON AS WE
TRANSITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED BEGINNING LATER TUE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CAUSE TOO MANY ISSUES WITH THE BEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION YET TO OCCUR. DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO...THE ERN EDGE OF
THE CWFA COULD GET IN ON A LITTLE OF THE LIGHT SNOW ON THE FAR WRN
FLANK OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE ERN LAKES. THIS IS NOT FOR SURE...AND
ANY SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING.

LATER TUE AFTERNOON IS WHEN WE EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO START BECOMING A NOTICEABLE FACTOR. THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF MUSKEGON AND NEAR HOLLAND AND
AREAS SOUTH. NW LAKE COUNTY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME HEALTHY
AMOUNTS. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A NNW FLOW REGIME FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS WITH SHORT WAVES IN
THE UPPER FLOW. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES ARE BASED ON THE AREAS WHERE
THE PREDOMINATELY STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNALS ARE...WHICH
LINES UP WELL WITH THE NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT FLOW REGIME.

OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO AROUND THE LOWER 20S C BY TUE EVENING AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH
WED NIGHT AND BEYOND. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING TO ALMOST
10K FEET BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT WILL
LIKELY COME DURING THAT TIME WITH A BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THE DGZ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ALSO AS
IT WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL LIKELY IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND COINCIDING
WITH THE BETTER CONVERGENCE.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WED
NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL A LITTLE...BUT THINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE ENOUGH THAT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT THU MORNING IN THE
FAVORED AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. USUALLY THIS MEANS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
TRACKING ALONG IT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS THIS FRONT NEARS.  SOME IMPACTS POSSIBLE AS THE RISK FOR
SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY EXISTS.  THEN BEHIND
THE FRONT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND DIVERGENT.
COMMONLY THIS CAUSES THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND A DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THIS FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE SUPPORTS PUSHING THE MAIN SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE.
ON SATURDAY. IMPACTS FROM THE COLD ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN AS SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS UP.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST.  SOMETIMES THESE SETUPS LEAD TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE LAKESHORE.  WILL FEATURE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS GOING FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR WEST AND
SOUTH OF GRR WHERE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR... TO VFR EAST OF GRR.
EVENTUALLY ALL THE TERMINALS SHOULD TREND INTO MVFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SOME OCNL IFR PERSISTING MAINLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF GRR. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS BY 18Z OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 00Z THU WITH
THIS FCST ISSUANCE. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SHOULD HOLD THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ON WED. THERE IS A CHC THAT WINDS COULD APPROACH GALES AT TIMES...
HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KMQT 090257
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
957 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

RECENTLY RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF UP TO 9 INCHES OF SN IN THE
IRONWOOD AREA...WITH SN FALLING AT AN INCH OR TWO PER HR. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYC UPSLOPE NNW FLOW/SHARP LLVL CNVGC FCST TO PERSIST IN
THIS AREA THRU THE NGT BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS...LINGERING DEEP
MSTR INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY...FALLING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C BY 12Z
TUE...AND FAVORABLE SN/WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET AGL THAT COINCIDES WITH SHARP LLVL UVV MAX...OPTED TO
UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO AN LES WARNING FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES DESPITE RATHER LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 SHOWN ON 00Z
INL RAOB AND FCST SDNGS FOR THE WRN CWA AS WELL AS LLVL DRY AIR OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD UPWIND OF LK SUP. EXPECT STORM TOTAL SN TO APRCH 18
INCHES IN SOME PLACES. THE NNW FLOW WL NOT BE AS FVRBL FOR THE
KEWEENAW...SO HELD ON TO AN ADVY FOR THAT AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TO START TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL STILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NW CANADA DOWN THROUGH E ND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH N WINDS AT 900MB OF 25-
30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME THE 500MB TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE CWA...HELPING ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING N WIND LES. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -22C...WITH
A MORE MODERATE -15 TO -20C OVER MUCH OF THE E.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO FAR
W ONTARIO AND MN. EXPECT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 5-7KFT CWA
WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY OVER THE W
HALF STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

LOOK FOR THE PREDOMINATE N WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF A MORE NW DIRECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAKING GOGEBIC OUT OF
THE LES. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING LES CWA WIDE WITH THE
NEARING RIDGE FROM THE W...A SINKING TROUGH FROM N ONTARIO WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH ALREADY OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SET UP
AS A LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NEW YORK ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE STRENGTHENING 1045MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
TO SINK ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN ON SATURDAY AND SETTLE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AND STILL N-NNW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR N CENTRAL. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF UPPER MI WILL FALL BELOW
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE S-SW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES BEYOND
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND THEN. WHILE BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MAIN 500MB LOW OFF THE E COAST
SUNDAY...THEY DO SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS SLIDING IN FROM THE N
PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO TUE AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THOSE SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. FOR
SAW...VFR/MVFR WX THIS EVNG WL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS ON
TUE AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
     TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-265-
     266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KAPX 090253
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
953 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

KIND OF A CHAOTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE 1000
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. APX RADAR
SHOWED THAT ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR BUT THAT RETURNS
WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
MEANWHILE...STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO GET THE GREAT LAKES
INVOLVED WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT (APX 09/00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURE -6.5
C)...THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THAT LAKE ANYWAYS.
OVERALL...EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER TWO INCHES (HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKES).
REMAINING MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND
MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR. VSBYS WILL BE THE SAME AS CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT
TIMES AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR




000
FXUS63 KMQT 090014
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
714 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

OPTED TO BUMP UP FCST SN TOTALS A BIT IN WRN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR FAVORABLE CYC UPSLOPE NNW FLOW/SHARP LLVL
CNVGC INDICATED IN THIS AREA THRU THE NGT BY SEVERAL HI RES
MODELS...LINGERING DEEP MSTR AS SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY...FALLING H85
TEMPS TOWARD -20C BY 12Z TUE...AND FAVORABLE SN/WATER RATIOS WITH
DGZ IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL THAT COINCIDES WITH SHARP
LLVL UVV MAX. THE BIGGEST NEGATIVES FOR HEAVIER SN WL BE LO INVRN
BASE ARND 4K FT AGL SHOWN ON 12Z INL RAOB AND FCST SDNGS FOR THE WRN
CWA TNGT AS WELL AS FAIRLY DRY NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB AND SFC OBS IN NE MN. CONSIDERING PUBLIC REPORTS UNDER 6 INCHES
THRU THE DAY IN THE AREA AND THESE NEGATIVES...LIMITED ADDITIONAL
FLUFFY SN ACCUMS TNGT TO UP 5 TO 6 INCHES...SO NO NEED TO UPGRADE
GOING ADVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TO START TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL STILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NW CANADA DOWN THROUGH E ND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH N WINDS AT 900MB OF 25-
30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME THE 500MB TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE CWA...HELPING ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING N WIND LES. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -22C...WITH
A MORE MODERATE -15 TO -20C OVER MUCH OF THE E.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO FAR
W ONTARIO AND MN. EXPECT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 5-7KFT CWA
WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY OVER THE W
HALF STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

LOOK FOR THE PREDOMINATE N WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF A MORE NW DIRECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAKING GOGEBIC OUT OF
THE LES. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING LES CWA WIDE WITH THE
NEARING RIDGE FROM THE W...A SINKING TROUGH FROM N ONTARIO WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH ALREADY OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SET UP
AS A LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NEW YORK ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE STRENGTHENING 1045MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
TO SINK ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN ON SATURDAY AND SETTLE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AND STILL N-NNW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR N CENTRAL. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF UPPER MI WILL FALL BELOW
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE S-SW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES BEYOND
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND THEN. WHILE BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MAIN 500MB LOW OFF THE E COAST
SUNDAY...THEY DO SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS SLIDING IN FROM THE N
PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO TUE AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THOSE SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. FOR
SAW...VFR/MVFR WX THIS EVNG WL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS ON
TUE AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
     TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-265-
     266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KAPX 082357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
657 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND
MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR. VSBYS WILL BE THE SAME AS CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT
TIMES AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 082357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
657 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND
MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR. VSBYS WILL BE THE SAME AS CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT
TIMES AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 082357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
657 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND
MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR. VSBYS WILL BE THE SAME AS CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT
TIMES AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR



000
FXUS63 KGRR 082352
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
652 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL START UP SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LIKELY LAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THE AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE THU MORNING COMMUTE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY FOR THE LAKESHORE
AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CRAWLING ONSHORE ACROSS THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS TREND A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE BEST SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WRN VAN
BUREN COUNTY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND. WE ARE THINKING 1-3 INCHES
THERE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE SMALL
ENOUGH WE DID NOT INCLUDE THIS PERIOD IN THE ADVISORY.

THINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THEN INTO TUE AFTERNOON AS WE
TRANSITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED BEGINNING LATER TUE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CAUSE TOO MANY ISSUES WITH THE BEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION YET TO OCCUR. DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO...THE ERN EDGE OF
THE CWFA COULD GET IN ON A LITTLE OF THE LIGHT SNOW ON THE FAR WRN
FLANK OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE ERN LAKES. THIS IS NOT FOR SURE...AND
ANY SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING.

LATER TUE AFTERNOON IS WHEN WE EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO START BECOMING A NOTICEABLE FACTOR. THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF MUSKEGON AND NEAR HOLLAND AND
AREAS SOUTH. NW LAKE COUNTY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME HEALTHY
AMOUNTS. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A NNW FLOW REGIME FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS WITH SHORT WAVES IN
THE UPPER FLOW. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES ARE BASED ON THE AREAS WHERE
THE PREDOMINATELY STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNALS ARE...WHICH
LINES UP WELL WITH THE NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT FLOW REGIME.

OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO AROUND THE LOWER 20S C BY TUE EVENING AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH
WED NIGHT AND BEYOND. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING TO ALMOST
10K FEET BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT WILL
LIKELY COME DURING THAT TIME WITH A BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THE DGZ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ALSO AS
IT WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL LIKELY IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND COINCIDING
WITH THE BETTER CONVERGENCE.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WED
NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL A LITTLE...BUT THINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE ENOUGH THAT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT THU MORNING IN THE
FAVORED AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. USUALLY THIS MEANS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
TRACKING ALONG IT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS THIS FRONT NEARS.  SOME IMPACTS POSSIBLE AS THE RISK FOR
SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY EXISTS.  THEN BEHIND
THE FRONT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND DIVERGENT.
COMMONLY THIS CAUSES THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND A DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THIS FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE SUPPORTS PUSHING THE MAIN SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE.
ON SATURDAY. IMPACTS FROM THE COLD ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN AS SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS UP.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST.  SOMETIMES THESE SETUPS LEAD TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE LAKESHORE.  WILL FEATURE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS GOING FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR WEST AND
SOUTH OF GRR WHERE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR... TO VFR EAST OF GRR.
EVENTUALLY ALL THE TERMINALS SHOULD TREND INTO MVFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SOME OCNL IFR PERSISTING MAINLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF GRR. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS BY 18Z OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 00Z THU WITH
THIS FCST ISSUANCE. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SHOULD HOLD THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ON WED. THERE IS A CHC THAT WINDS COULD APPROACH GALES AT TIMES...
HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 082352
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
652 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL START UP SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LIKELY LAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THE AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE THU MORNING COMMUTE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY FOR THE LAKESHORE
AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CRAWLING ONSHORE ACROSS THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS TREND A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE BEST SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WRN VAN
BUREN COUNTY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND. WE ARE THINKING 1-3 INCHES
THERE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE SMALL
ENOUGH WE DID NOT INCLUDE THIS PERIOD IN THE ADVISORY.

THINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THEN INTO TUE AFTERNOON AS WE
TRANSITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED BEGINNING LATER TUE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CAUSE TOO MANY ISSUES WITH THE BEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION YET TO OCCUR. DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO...THE ERN EDGE OF
THE CWFA COULD GET IN ON A LITTLE OF THE LIGHT SNOW ON THE FAR WRN
FLANK OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE ERN LAKES. THIS IS NOT FOR SURE...AND
ANY SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING.

LATER TUE AFTERNOON IS WHEN WE EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO START BECOMING A NOTICEABLE FACTOR. THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF MUSKEGON AND NEAR HOLLAND AND
AREAS SOUTH. NW LAKE COUNTY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME HEALTHY
AMOUNTS. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A NNW FLOW REGIME FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS WITH SHORT WAVES IN
THE UPPER FLOW. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES ARE BASED ON THE AREAS WHERE
THE PREDOMINATELY STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNALS ARE...WHICH
LINES UP WELL WITH THE NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT FLOW REGIME.

OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO AROUND THE LOWER 20S C BY TUE EVENING AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH
WED NIGHT AND BEYOND. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING TO ALMOST
10K FEET BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT WILL
LIKELY COME DURING THAT TIME WITH A BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THE DGZ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ALSO AS
IT WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL LIKELY IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND COINCIDING
WITH THE BETTER CONVERGENCE.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WED
NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL A LITTLE...BUT THINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE ENOUGH THAT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT THU MORNING IN THE
FAVORED AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. USUALLY THIS MEANS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
TRACKING ALONG IT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS THIS FRONT NEARS.  SOME IMPACTS POSSIBLE AS THE RISK FOR
SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY EXISTS.  THEN BEHIND
THE FRONT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND DIVERGENT.
COMMONLY THIS CAUSES THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND A DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THIS FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE SUPPORTS PUSHING THE MAIN SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE.
ON SATURDAY. IMPACTS FROM THE COLD ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN AS SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS UP.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST.  SOMETIMES THESE SETUPS LEAD TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE LAKESHORE.  WILL FEATURE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS GOING FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR WEST AND
SOUTH OF GRR WHERE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR... TO VFR EAST OF GRR.
EVENTUALLY ALL THE TERMINALS SHOULD TREND INTO MVFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SOME OCNL IFR PERSISTING MAINLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF GRR. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS BY 18Z OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 00Z THU WITH
THIS FCST ISSUANCE. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SHOULD HOLD THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ON WED. THERE IS A CHC THAT WINDS COULD APPROACH GALES AT TIMES...
HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ



000
FXUS63 KGRR 082352
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
652 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL START UP SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LIKELY LAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THE AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE THU MORNING COMMUTE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY FOR THE LAKESHORE
AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CRAWLING ONSHORE ACROSS THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS TREND A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE BEST SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WRN VAN
BUREN COUNTY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND. WE ARE THINKING 1-3 INCHES
THERE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE SMALL
ENOUGH WE DID NOT INCLUDE THIS PERIOD IN THE ADVISORY.

THINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THEN INTO TUE AFTERNOON AS WE
TRANSITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED BEGINNING LATER TUE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CAUSE TOO MANY ISSUES WITH THE BEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION YET TO OCCUR. DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO...THE ERN EDGE OF
THE CWFA COULD GET IN ON A LITTLE OF THE LIGHT SNOW ON THE FAR WRN
FLANK OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE ERN LAKES. THIS IS NOT FOR SURE...AND
ANY SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING.

LATER TUE AFTERNOON IS WHEN WE EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO START BECOMING A NOTICEABLE FACTOR. THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF MUSKEGON AND NEAR HOLLAND AND
AREAS SOUTH. NW LAKE COUNTY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME HEALTHY
AMOUNTS. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A NNW FLOW REGIME FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS WITH SHORT WAVES IN
THE UPPER FLOW. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES ARE BASED ON THE AREAS WHERE
THE PREDOMINATELY STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNALS ARE...WHICH
LINES UP WELL WITH THE NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT FLOW REGIME.

OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO AROUND THE LOWER 20S C BY TUE EVENING AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH
WED NIGHT AND BEYOND. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING TO ALMOST
10K FEET BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT WILL
LIKELY COME DURING THAT TIME WITH A BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THE DGZ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ALSO AS
IT WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL LIKELY IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND COINCIDING
WITH THE BETTER CONVERGENCE.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WED
NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL A LITTLE...BUT THINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE ENOUGH THAT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT THU MORNING IN THE
FAVORED AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. USUALLY THIS MEANS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
TRACKING ALONG IT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS THIS FRONT NEARS.  SOME IMPACTS POSSIBLE AS THE RISK FOR
SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY EXISTS.  THEN BEHIND
THE FRONT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND DIVERGENT.
COMMONLY THIS CAUSES THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND A DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THIS FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE SUPPORTS PUSHING THE MAIN SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE.
ON SATURDAY. IMPACTS FROM THE COLD ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN AS SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS UP.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST.  SOMETIMES THESE SETUPS LEAD TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE LAKESHORE.  WILL FEATURE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS GOING FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR WEST AND
SOUTH OF GRR WHERE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR... TO VFR EAST OF GRR.
EVENTUALLY ALL THE TERMINALS SHOULD TREND INTO MVFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SOME OCNL IFR PERSISTING MAINLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF GRR. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS BY 18Z OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 00Z THU WITH
THIS FCST ISSUANCE. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SHOULD HOLD THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ON WED. THERE IS A CHC THAT WINDS COULD APPROACH GALES AT TIMES...
HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KMQT 082328
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
628 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TO START TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL STILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NW CANADA DOWN THROUGH E ND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH N WINDS AT 900MB OF 25-
30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME THE 500MB TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE CWA...HELPING ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING N WIND LES. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -22C...WITH
A MORE MODERATE -15 TO -20C OVER MUCH OF THE E.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO FAR
W ONTARIO AND MN. EXPECT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 5-7KFT CWA
WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY OVER THE W
HALF STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

LOOK FOR THE PREDOMINATE N WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF A MORE NW DIRECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAKING GOGEBIC OUT OF
THE LES. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING LES CWA WIDE WITH THE
NEARING RIDGE FROM THE W...A SINKING TROUGH FROM N ONTARIO WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH ALREADY OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SET UP
AS A LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NEW YORK ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE STRENGTHENING 1045MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
TO SINK ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN ON SATURDAY AND SETTLE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AND STILL N-NNW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR N CENTRAL. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF UPPER MI WILL FALL BELOW
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE S-SW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES BEYOND
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND THEN. WHILE BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MAIN 500MB LOW OFF THE E COAST
SUNDAY...THEY DO SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS SLIDING IN FROM THE N
PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO TUE AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THOSE SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. FOR
SAW...VFR/MVFR WX THIS EVNG WL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS ON
TUE AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
     TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-265-
     266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 082328
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
628 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TO START TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL STILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NW CANADA DOWN THROUGH E ND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH N WINDS AT 900MB OF 25-
30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME THE 500MB TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE CWA...HELPING ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING N WIND LES. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -22C...WITH
A MORE MODERATE -15 TO -20C OVER MUCH OF THE E.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO FAR
W ONTARIO AND MN. EXPECT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 5-7KFT CWA
WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY OVER THE W
HALF STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

LOOK FOR THE PREDOMINATE N WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF A MORE NW DIRECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAKING GOGEBIC OUT OF
THE LES. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING LES CWA WIDE WITH THE
NEARING RIDGE FROM THE W...A SINKING TROUGH FROM N ONTARIO WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH ALREADY OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SET UP
AS A LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NEW YORK ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE STRENGTHENING 1045MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
TO SINK ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN ON SATURDAY AND SETTLE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AND STILL N-NNW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR N CENTRAL. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF UPPER MI WILL FALL BELOW
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE S-SW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES BEYOND
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND THEN. WHILE BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MAIN 500MB LOW OFF THE E COAST
SUNDAY...THEY DO SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS SLIDING IN FROM THE N
PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO TUE AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THOSE SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. FOR
SAW...VFR/MVFR WX THIS EVNG WL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS ON
TUE AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
     TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-265-
     266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 082328
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
628 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TO START TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL STILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NW CANADA DOWN THROUGH E ND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH N WINDS AT 900MB OF 25-
30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME THE 500MB TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE CWA...HELPING ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING N WIND LES. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -22C...WITH
A MORE MODERATE -15 TO -20C OVER MUCH OF THE E.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO FAR
W ONTARIO AND MN. EXPECT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 5-7KFT CWA
WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY OVER THE W
HALF STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

LOOK FOR THE PREDOMINATE N WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF A MORE NW DIRECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAKING GOGEBIC OUT OF
THE LES. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING LES CWA WIDE WITH THE
NEARING RIDGE FROM THE W...A SINKING TROUGH FROM N ONTARIO WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH ALREADY OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SET UP
AS A LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NEW YORK ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE STRENGTHENING 1045MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
TO SINK ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN ON SATURDAY AND SETTLE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AND STILL N-NNW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR N CENTRAL. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF UPPER MI WILL FALL BELOW
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE S-SW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES BEYOND
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND THEN. WHILE BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MAIN 500MB LOW OFF THE E COAST
SUNDAY...THEY DO SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS SLIDING IN FROM THE N
PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO TUE AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THOSE SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. FOR
SAW...VFR/MVFR WX THIS EVNG WL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS ON
TUE AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
     TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-265-
     266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



000
FXUS63 KDTX 082307
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
607 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016


.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT SPINS NEAR THE EASTERN SHORE
OF LAKE HURON INTO TUESDAY. VFR CIGS WILL TREND TO MVFR DURING THAT
TIME AS -SHSNS BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITH TIME OVER THE TERMINALS.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
NW TO WNW FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER THRU THE
FORECAST...INCREASING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. GUSTS SHOULD APPROACH 25
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS AOB 5KFT THIS EVENING...AND HIGH OVERNIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30 TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH HAS REMAINED SUFFICIENT IN KEEPING
THE RETURNS STREAMING INTO PORT HURON AND THE EASTERN THUMB REGION
ALL RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING DUE BOTH TO NIGHTTIME BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THESE RETURNS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION EXTENDING FROM NRN OHIO INTO SRN LAKE
HURON. THE REGIONAL WATER VAPOR LOOP TODAY HAS INDICATED SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS SYSTEM AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
NOW OVER THE OH/KY BORDER. THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE MI. THE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD SRN LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDES INTO NRN INDIANA. THIS WILL IN TURN DRIVE THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE THUMB REGION DURING THE NIGHT. LATEST HI RES
SUITE ALL GENERALLY SUGGEST THE STRONGER PUSH OF DEFORMATION WILL BE
A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE THUMB REGION TONIGHT AS IT
APPEARS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL FOSTER A MORE COMPACT REGION OF
FORCING. MEANWHILE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE EMERGED UNDER THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL OVER SRN LAKE MI/SW LOWER MI. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE
VICINITY OF EITHER THE ERN THUMB/SRN LAKE HURON OR JUST EAST OF
METRO DETROIT INTO TUES AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THE DEFORMATION REGION OPENS UP AND TRANSITIONS WEST AND
SOUTH. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TUES
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE REMNANT LARGE SCALE FORCING TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND INTO METRO DETROIT/ANN ARBOR AND PTS
SOUTH. STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO BOOST
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE HURON. THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST
TUES NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A LAKE ENHANCED SFC TROUGH INTO
THE THUMB REGION...POSSIBLY BOOSTING SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS HURON
COUNTY TUES NIGHT. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE SNOW TRANSITION TO NMRS/SCT SNOW SHOWERS. RESIDUAL DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD HOWEVER SUPPORT SOME
INTENSE SNOWFALL OUT OF SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

AS FAR AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THERE WILL BE NO AREAL
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY ATTM. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL HOWEVER SUPPORT EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY END TIME A LITTLE LATER INTO TUES EVENING. THE MAIN
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES ATTM REVOLVE AROUND HOW FAR WEST INTO FLINT
AND THE TRI CITIES REGIONS THE STRONGER DEFORMATION WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND HOW WELL THE LARGE SCALE FORCING HOLDS TOGETHER LATE IN
THE DAY SOUTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR. GIVEN FAIRLY RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE QUALITY WITH 850MB MIXING RATIOS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 G/KG AND
GIVEN A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF LOW STATIC STABILITY WITH THE MID LEVEL
COLD POOL IN THE VICINITY...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME REGIONS OF
ENHANCED FORCING WHICH MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF HIGH INTENSITY
SNOWFALL RATES. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST SOME NEAR TERM FORECAST
UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS AROUND 10:1 TONIGHT RISING TO
ROUGHLY 12:1 BY LATE TUESDAY AND WITH TOTAL QPF /TONIGHT THROUGH
TUES NIGHT/ POSSIBLY OVER A HALF INCH IN THE THUMB TO A TENTH OR
LESS SOUTH OF M 59...TOTAL FCST SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 7 INCHES LOOK
REASONABLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA /DROPPING TO AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH
OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR/.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOCUSES ON SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWEEPING
THROUGH. SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH IS TYPICALLY A DRIER
FLOW FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -20
RESULTING IN GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATED WRT ICE UP PAST 10KFT
EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IN THE DGZ. THINK WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY STILL LIKELY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.

HIGH TEMPS WED THRU FRI EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
20 BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BLASTS IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW SWEEPS
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TURNS SURFACE
WINDS TO A NNW DIRECTION. FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AIRMASS ALL YEAR...WITH GEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND -25C. HEART OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FRI/SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SAT. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS EVEN COLDER. THERE IS LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FRIDAY ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AREAWIDE...WITH
SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
EXPANDING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE HURON.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TOMORROW AND COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE RAMPING UP TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERSISTING
WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A SMALL DECREASE ON THURSDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR COMING IN...FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED...AND MAY BE
HEAVY. A RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS AND LIKELY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ049-054-055-
     062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SC/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 082151
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
451 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TO START TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL STILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NW CANADA DOWN THROUGH E ND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH N WINDS AT 900MB OF 25-
30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME THE 500MB TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE CWA...HELPING ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING N WIND LES. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -22C...WITH
A MORE MODERATE -15 TO -20C OVER MUCH OF THE E.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO FAR
W ONTARIO AND MN. EXPECT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 5-7KFT CWA
WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY OVER THE W
HALF STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

LOOK FOR THE PREDOMINATE N WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF A MORE NW DIRECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAKING GOGEBIC OUT OF
THE LES. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING LES CWA WIDE WITH THE
NEARING RIDGE FROM THE W...A SINKING TROUGH FROM N ONTARIO WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH ALREADY OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SET UP
AS A LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NEW YORK ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE STRENGTHENING 1045MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
TO SINK ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN ON SATURDAY AND SETTLE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AND STILL N-NNW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR N CENTRAL. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF UPPER MI WILL FALL BELOW
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE S-SW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES BEYOND
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND THEN. WHILE BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MAIN 500MB LOW OFF THE E COAST
SUNDAY...THEY DO SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS SLIDING IN FROM THE N
PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
     TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-265-
     266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KAPX 082111
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
411 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT SFC OBS AND RADAR DATA SHOWING MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS NRN
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SFC AND UPPER LOWS REMAIN DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SFC
LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY IN SNOW AFT 09Z
TUESDAY...AS CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVR NRN MI TAF SITES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE NRN
LAKES ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SWR




000
FXUS63 KDTX 082014
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
314 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30 TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH HAS REMAINED SUFFICIENT IN KEEPING
THE RETURNS STREAMING INTO PORT HURON AND THE EASTERN THUMB REGION
ALL RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING DUE BOTH TO NIGHTTIME BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THESE RETURNS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION EXTENDING FROM NRN OHIO INTO SRN LAKE
HURON. THE REGIONAL WATER VAPOR LOOP TODAY HAS INDICATED SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS SYSTEM AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
NOW OVER THE OH/KY BORDER. THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE MI. THE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD SRN LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDES INTO NRN INDIANA. THIS WILL IN TURN DRIVE THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE THUMB REGION DURING THE NIGHT. LATEST HI RES
SUITE ALL GENERALLY SUGGEST THE STRONGER PUSH OF DEFORMATION WILL BE
A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE THUMB REGION TONIGHT AS IT
APPEARS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL FOSTER A MORE COMPACT REGION OF
FORCING. MEANWHILE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE EMERGED UNDER THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL OVER SRN LAKE MI/SW LOWER MI. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE
VICINITY OF EITHER THE ERN THUMB/SRN LAKE HURON OR JUST EAST OF
METRO DETROIT INTO TUES AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THE DEFORMATION REGION OPENS UP AND TRANSITIONS WEST AND
SOUTH. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TUES
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE REMNANT LARGE SCALE FORCING TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND INTO METRO DETROIT/ANN ARBOR AND PTS
SOUTH. STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO BOOST
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE HURON. THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST
TUES NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A LAKE ENHANCED SFC TROUGH INTO
THE THUMB REGION...POSSIBLY BOOSTING SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS HURON
COUNTY TUES NIGHT. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE SNOW TRANSITION TO NMRS/SCT SNOW SHOWERS. RESIDUAL DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD HOWEVER SUPPORT SOME
INTENSE SNOWFALL OUT OF SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

AS FAR AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THERE WILL BE NO AREAL
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY ATTM. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL HOWEVER SUPPORT EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY END TIME A LITTLE LATER INTO TUES EVENING. THE MAIN
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES ATTM REVOLVE AROUND HOW FAR WEST INTO FLINT
AND THE TRI CITIES REGIONS THE STRONGER DEFORMATION WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND HOW WELL THE LARGE SCALE FORCING HOLDS TOGETHER LATE IN
THE DAY SOUTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR. GIVEN FAIRLY RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE QUALITY WITH 850MB MIXING RATIOS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 G/KG AND
GIVEN A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF LOW STATIC STABILITY WITH THE MID LEVEL
COLD POOL IN THE VICINITY...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME REGIONS OF
ENHANCED FORCING WHICH MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF HIGH INTENSITY
SNOWFALL RATES. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST SOME NEAR TERM FORECAST
UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS AROUND 10:1 TONIGHT RISING TO
ROUGHLY 12:1 BY LATE TUESDAY AND WITH TOTAL QPF /TONIGHT THROUGH
TUES NIGHT/ POSSIBLY OVER A HALF INCH IN THE THUMB TO A TENTH OR
LESS SOUTH OF M 59...TOTAL FCST SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 7 INCHES LOOK
REASONABLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA /DROPPING TO AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH
OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR/.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOCUSES ON SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWEEPING
THROUGH. SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH IS TYPICALLY A DRIER
FLOW FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -20
RESULTING IN GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATED WRT ICE UP PAST 10KFT
EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IN THE DGZ. THINK WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY STILL LIKELY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.

HIGH TEMPS WED THRU FRI EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
20 BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BLASTS IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW SWEEPS
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TURNS SURFACE
WINDS TO A NNW DIRECTION. FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AIRMASS ALL YEAR...WITH GEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND -25C. HEART OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FRI/SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SAT. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS EVEN COLDER. THERE IS LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FRIDAY ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AREAWIDE...WITH
SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
EXPANDING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE HURON.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TOMORROW AND COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE RAMPING UP TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERSISTING
WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A SMALL DECREASE ON THURSDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR COMING IN...FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED...AND MAY BE
HEAVY. A RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS AND LIKELY FREEZING SPRAY.


&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1202 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TIMING OF LOW CLOUD (MVFR) DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THE CHALLENGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR SLOWER FILTERS EAST THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST. WHEN
LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) ARRIVE (POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF THROUGH EARLY
EVENING)...NEXT OCCUR OF BUSINESS IS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS MBS/FNT LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION (COUPLE INCHES) CAN
BE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN TAFS FOR THIS EVENING IS LOW.
LIGHT...MOSTLY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL INCREASE A
BIT TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL BOOST/BETTER MIXING SUPPORTING GUSTS OF
20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY BETTER.

AT DTW...
MID LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY IN PLACE TO START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE
TERMINAL SITE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXACT TIMING REMAINS
DIFFICULT...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHES INITIALLY. A
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE TRACKING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY HELP TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT BETTER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW POSSIBLE...AROUND 1 INCH. ALONG WITH THE
SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM
  THIS EVENING...AND HIGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SC/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 082006
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
306 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 082006
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
306 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KGRR 082005
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL START UP SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LIKELY LAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THE AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE THU MORNING COMMUTE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY FOR THE LAKESHORE
AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CRAWLING ONSHORE ACROSS THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS TREND A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE BEST SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WRN VAN
BUREN COUNTY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND. WE ARE THINKING 1-3 INCHES
THERE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE SMALL
ENOUGH WE DID NOT INCLUDE THIS PERIOD IN THE ADVISORY.

THINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THEN INTO TUE AFTERNOON AS WE
TRANSITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED BEGINNING LATER TUE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CAUSE TOO MANY ISSUES WITH THE BEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION YET TO OCCUR. DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO...THE ERN EDGE OF
THE CWFA COULD GET IN ON A LITTLE OF THE LIGHT SNOW ON THE FAR WRN
FLANK OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE ERN LAKES. THIS IS NOT FOR SURE...AND
ANY SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING.

LATER TUE AFTERNOON IS WHEN WE EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO START BECOMING A NOTICABLE FACTOR. THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF MUSKEGON AND NEAR HOLLAND AND
AREAS SOUTH. NW LAKE COUNTY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME HEALTHY
AMOUNTS. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A NNW FLOW REGIME FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS WITH SHORT WAVES IN
THE UPPER FLOW. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES ARE BASED ON THE AREAS WHERE
THE PREDOMINATELY STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNALS ARE...WHICH
LINES UP WELL WITH THE NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT FLOW REGIME.

OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO AROUND THE LOWER 20S C BY TUE EVENING AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH
WED NIGHT AND BEYOND. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING TO ALMOST
10K FEET BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT WILL
LIKELY COME DURING THAT TIME WITH A BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THE DGZ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ALSO AS
IT WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL LIKELY IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND COINCIDING
WITH THE BETTER CONVERGENCE.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WED
NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL A LITTLE...BUT THINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE ENOUGH THAT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT THU MORNING IN THE
FAVORED AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. USUALLY THIS MEANS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
TRACKING ALONG IT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS THIS FRONT NEARS.  SOME IMPACTS POSSIBLE AS THE RISK FOR
SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY EXISTS.  THEN BEHIND
THE FRONT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND DIVERGENT.
COMMONLY THIS CAUSES THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND A DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THIS FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE SUPPORTS PUSHING THE MAIN SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE.
ON SATURDAY. IMPACTS FROM THE COLD ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN AS SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS UP.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST.  SOMETIMES THESE SETUPS LEAD TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE LAKESHORE.  WILL FEATURE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS GOING FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IMPACTS TO AVIATORS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST...THE KLAN AND KJXN SITES
COULD END UP BEING IMPACTED BY A SNOW BAND THAT TRACKS WESTWARD
THROUGH LOWER MI DUE TO THE LOW BEING STALLED OUT. THIS AREA OF
SNOW WOULD NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. THUS
KLAN AND KJXN WILL FEATURE A LOWERING OF CONDITIONS TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 00Z THU WITH
THIS FCST ISSUANCE. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SHOULD HOLD THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ON WED. THERE IS A CHC THAT WINDS COULD APPROACH GALES AT TIMES...
HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 081756
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1256 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINING
BASICALLY PCPN FREE...AS SFC AND UPPER LOWS REMAIN CENTERED RIGHT
OVER NRN MI THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PCPN
CURRENTLY IN THE AREA SPINNING AROUND NRN MI AND CONFINED TO
WISCONSIN...WRN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE THUMB. HOWEVER EXPECT PCPN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC AND UPPER
LOWS PUSH EAST OF THE REGION.

VIS SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
OVER NRN MI...WHILE OVC LOW CLOUD DECK CONTS TO SPIN AROUND THE
PIVOT POINT OF NRN MI THIS MORNING. THESE BREAKS AND SOME SUN HAVE
HELPED CLEAR UP FOG AND VSBY ACROSS NRN MI.

OVERALL CURRENT FCST TREND IS IN LINE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
EXPECTED YET THIS MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT SFC OBS AND RADAR DATA SHOWING MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS NRN
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SFC AND UPPER LOWS REMAIN DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SFC
LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY IN SNOW AFT 09Z
TUESDAY...AS CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVR NRN MI TAF SITES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE NRN
LAKES ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SWR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 081735
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1235 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.  THE SNOW WILL PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER LAKESHORE AREAS COULD
SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.  COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKESHORE
AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE INLAND AREAS
ALSO SEE SNOW...BUT JUST A COUPLE INCHES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S INTO THE
WEEKEND.  ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE TWEAKED THE FCST A LITTLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER
PCPN CHCS ACROSS THE EAST.

PESKY AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS
E/SE TODAY THUS FAR...KEEPING PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OUT OVER
THE LAKE AND ACROSS WISCONSIN. THERE IS A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN THAT ARE TRYING
TO MOVE IN. THESE WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS INLAND GRADUALLY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW CAN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE NW FLOW TO
KICK IN.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 30S MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CAN MOVE IN LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

STACKED UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED.  NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING WITH THIS RATHER
FILLED LOW...SO THE PCPN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL JUST BE WET TODAY. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WITH A SLIGHT BOOST FROM THE LAKE...SOME LAKESHORE AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.

THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP.  THIS IS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING.  AND SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...UNTIL
WE ARE MORE CERTAIN OF IT/S TIMING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DELTA
T/S SHOULD RISE LATE TUESDAY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL
SHOULD INCREASE. THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS 335-345 AND ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE EXPECT WE WILL SEE DOMINATE BANDS THAT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SABLE POINTS.

THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO LATE WED WHEN THE SNOWS SHOULD
LET UP. CERTAINLY APPEARS SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. HIGHS BY WED SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND
20 AS WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WINTER WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT IN THE LONG TERM. THE IMPACT OF WINTER
WILL BE MORE IN TERMS OF THE COLD THOUGH AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BELTS.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS MAINLY IN THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES...WITH MASON...OCEANA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
SEEING THE BETTER BANDING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SOME ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POURING IN BEHIND IT. THE
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

THE AIR THAT SURGES IN OVER THE WEEKEND IS COLDER IN THE ECMWF AND
REACHES THE -26C TO -30C RANGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO LOWS. WE WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IMPACTS TO AVIATORS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST...THE KLAN AND KJXN SITES
COULD END UP BEING IMPACTED BY A SNOW BAND THAT TRACKS WESTWARD
THROUGH LOWER MI DUE TO THE LOW BEING STALLED OUT. THIS AREA OF
SNOW WOULD NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. THUS
KLAN AND KJXN WILL FEATURE A LOWERING OF CONDITIONS TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.  WE MAY REACH
BORDERLINE GALES TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KDTX 081702
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1202 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

TIMING OF LOW CLOUD (MVFR) DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THE CHALLENGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR SLOWER FILTERS EAST THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST. WHEN
LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) ARRIVE (POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF THROUGH EARLY
EVENING)...NEXT OCCUR OF BUSINESS IS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS MBS/FNT LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION (COUPLE INCHES) CAN
BE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN TAFS FOR THIS EVENING IS LOW.
LIGHT...MOSTLY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL INCREASE A
BIT TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL BOOST/BETTER MIXING SUPPORTING GUSTS OF
20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY BETTER.

AT DTW...
MID LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY IN PLACE TO START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE
TERMINAL SITE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXACT TIMING REMAINS
DIFFICULT...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHES INITIALLY. A
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE TRACKING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY HELP TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT BETTER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW POSSIBLE...AROUND 1 INCH. ALONG WITH THE
SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM
  THIS EVENING...AND HIGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 829 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATE...

IN LIGHT OF CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS...AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
TO DROP AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES AROUND PORT HURON. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
VALID AS THE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION BAND SLOWLY PUSHES BACK TOWARD
THE EAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

NWP CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGETIC FLOW ACROSS NOAM AT PRESS
TIME. VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH IS CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS EVOLUTION HAS LARGELY BEEN GUIDED BY A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND A POWERFUL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. INTERACTION WITH A 165KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
ADDITIONALLY GUIDE THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SAINT LOUIS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WAS
UNIVERSALLY UNDERSIMULATED BY PRIOR MODEL CYCLES AND BETTER SAMPLING
HAS ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE IMPACTFUL EVOLUTION
LOCALLY. SPECIFICALLY, AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS FROM STL TO LAKE ERIE,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED INVOF THE LAKE. DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND WITHIN WHICH
DEFORMATION AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS NWP SPREAD FALLS INTO AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT
CAMPS. THE EC/ARW/NMM REPRESENT THE STRONGEST CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS PREFERRED CLUSTER IS MOST STRONGLY
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR REMAIN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AND CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS FURTHER
DIMINISHED BY UNUSUALLY VOLATILE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BY THE
RAP/HRRR.

THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
ORGANIZING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT ONSHORE IN THE THUMB.
HAVING ORGANIZED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS IN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT , THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
POOLING AND THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
OVERACHIEVING SCENARIO. THE NMM/ARW THEN ALLOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO LATCH ON TO LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING BY A FEW
ADDITIONAL MILLIBARS OVER THE LAKE -A PERFECTLY REASONABLE SCENARIO-
THE STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL AS MORE AGGRESSIVE INLAND PENETRATION. THE MORE COARSE EC
EXPECTEDLY PEELS THE LOW AWAY FASTER, CONFINING ACCUMS TO A SMALLER
RANGE AND TO A SMALLER PORTION OF THE THUMB. CONSENSUS EC/ARW/NMM
QPF YIELDS 12-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
24-HOUR TOTALS OF 4-7" IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRITICAL
SURFACE FEATURES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR A WWA-WORTHY SCENARIO IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAKING AN INITIAL STAB AT A HEADLINE. WORTH NOTING
THAT 06Z NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, BUT HAS SHOWN A STRONG
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD AFOREMENTIONED PREFERRED CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY, EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A LATE WEEK CLIPPER WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO MARKING THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH SAT AND/OR
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 10 DEGREES. CONSECUTIVE
MORNINGS OF SUB-ZERO LOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER
MARINE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SNOW SHOWER PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
DURING TUESDAY AND LEAVE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO MODERATE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
AND COMBINES WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELD FOR BUILDING WAVES AND
STRONGER SNOW SQUALLS. THIS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AND THEN WIND
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 081702
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1202 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

TIMING OF LOW CLOUD (MVFR) DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THE CHALLENGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR SLOWER FILTERS EAST THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST. WHEN
LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) ARRIVE (POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF THROUGH EARLY
EVENING)...NEXT OCCUR OF BUSINESS IS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS MBS/FNT LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION (COUPLE INCHES) CAN
BE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN TAFS FOR THIS EVENING IS LOW.
LIGHT...MOSTLY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL INCREASE A
BIT TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL BOOST/BETTER MIXING SUPPORTING GUSTS OF
20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY BETTER.

AT DTW...
MID LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY IN PLACE TO START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE
TERMINAL SITE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXACT TIMING REMAINS
DIFFICULT...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHES INITIALLY. A
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE TRACKING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY HELP TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT BETTER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW POSSIBLE...AROUND 1 INCH. ALONG WITH THE
SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM
  THIS EVENING...AND HIGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 829 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATE...

IN LIGHT OF CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS...AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
TO DROP AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES AROUND PORT HURON. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
VALID AS THE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION BAND SLOWLY PUSHES BACK TOWARD
THE EAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

NWP CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGETIC FLOW ACROSS NOAM AT PRESS
TIME. VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH IS CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS EVOLUTION HAS LARGELY BEEN GUIDED BY A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND A POWERFUL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. INTERACTION WITH A 165KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
ADDITIONALLY GUIDE THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SAINT LOUIS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WAS
UNIVERSALLY UNDERSIMULATED BY PRIOR MODEL CYCLES AND BETTER SAMPLING
HAS ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE IMPACTFUL EVOLUTION
LOCALLY. SPECIFICALLY, AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS FROM STL TO LAKE ERIE,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED INVOF THE LAKE. DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND WITHIN WHICH
DEFORMATION AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS NWP SPREAD FALLS INTO AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT
CAMPS. THE EC/ARW/NMM REPRESENT THE STRONGEST CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS PREFERRED CLUSTER IS MOST STRONGLY
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR REMAIN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AND CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS FURTHER
DIMINISHED BY UNUSUALLY VOLATILE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BY THE
RAP/HRRR.

THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
ORGANIZING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT ONSHORE IN THE THUMB.
HAVING ORGANIZED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS IN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT , THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
POOLING AND THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
OVERACHIEVING SCENARIO. THE NMM/ARW THEN ALLOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO LATCH ON TO LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING BY A FEW
ADDITIONAL MILLIBARS OVER THE LAKE -A PERFECTLY REASONABLE SCENARIO-
THE STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL AS MORE AGGRESSIVE INLAND PENETRATION. THE MORE COARSE EC
EXPECTEDLY PEELS THE LOW AWAY FASTER, CONFINING ACCUMS TO A SMALLER
RANGE AND TO A SMALLER PORTION OF THE THUMB. CONSENSUS EC/ARW/NMM
QPF YIELDS 12-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
24-HOUR TOTALS OF 4-7" IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRITICAL
SURFACE FEATURES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR A WWA-WORTHY SCENARIO IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAKING AN INITIAL STAB AT A HEADLINE. WORTH NOTING
THAT 06Z NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, BUT HAS SHOWN A STRONG
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD AFOREMENTIONED PREFERRED CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY, EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A LATE WEEK CLIPPER WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO MARKING THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH SAT AND/OR
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 10 DEGREES. CONSECUTIVE
MORNINGS OF SUB-ZERO LOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER
MARINE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SNOW SHOWER PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
DURING TUESDAY AND LEAVE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO MODERATE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
AND COMBINES WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELD FOR BUILDING WAVES AND
STRONGER SNOW SQUALLS. THIS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AND THEN WIND
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 081702
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1202 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

TIMING OF LOW CLOUD (MVFR) DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THE CHALLENGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR SLOWER FILTERS EAST THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST. WHEN
LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) ARRIVE (POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF THROUGH EARLY
EVENING)...NEXT OCCUR OF BUSINESS IS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS MBS/FNT LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION (COUPLE INCHES) CAN
BE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN TAFS FOR THIS EVENING IS LOW.
LIGHT...MOSTLY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL INCREASE A
BIT TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL BOOST/BETTER MIXING SUPPORTING GUSTS OF
20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY BETTER.

AT DTW...
MID LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY IN PLACE TO START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE
TERMINAL SITE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXACT TIMING REMAINS
DIFFICULT...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHES INITIALLY. A
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE TRACKING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY HELP TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT BETTER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW POSSIBLE...AROUND 1 INCH. ALONG WITH THE
SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM
  THIS EVENING...AND HIGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 829 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATE...

IN LIGHT OF CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS...AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
TO DROP AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES AROUND PORT HURON. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
VALID AS THE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION BAND SLOWLY PUSHES BACK TOWARD
THE EAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

NWP CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGETIC FLOW ACROSS NOAM AT PRESS
TIME. VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH IS CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS EVOLUTION HAS LARGELY BEEN GUIDED BY A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND A POWERFUL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. INTERACTION WITH A 165KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
ADDITIONALLY GUIDE THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SAINT LOUIS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WAS
UNIVERSALLY UNDERSIMULATED BY PRIOR MODEL CYCLES AND BETTER SAMPLING
HAS ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE IMPACTFUL EVOLUTION
LOCALLY. SPECIFICALLY, AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS FROM STL TO LAKE ERIE,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED INVOF THE LAKE. DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND WITHIN WHICH
DEFORMATION AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS NWP SPREAD FALLS INTO AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT
CAMPS. THE EC/ARW/NMM REPRESENT THE STRONGEST CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS PREFERRED CLUSTER IS MOST STRONGLY
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR REMAIN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AND CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS FURTHER
DIMINISHED BY UNUSUALLY VOLATILE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BY THE
RAP/HRRR.

THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
ORGANIZING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT ONSHORE IN THE THUMB.
HAVING ORGANIZED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS IN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT , THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
POOLING AND THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
OVERACHIEVING SCENARIO. THE NMM/ARW THEN ALLOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO LATCH ON TO LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING BY A FEW
ADDITIONAL MILLIBARS OVER THE LAKE -A PERFECTLY REASONABLE SCENARIO-
THE STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL AS MORE AGGRESSIVE INLAND PENETRATION. THE MORE COARSE EC
EXPECTEDLY PEELS THE LOW AWAY FASTER, CONFINING ACCUMS TO A SMALLER
RANGE AND TO A SMALLER PORTION OF THE THUMB. CONSENSUS EC/ARW/NMM
QPF YIELDS 12-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
24-HOUR TOTALS OF 4-7" IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRITICAL
SURFACE FEATURES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR A WWA-WORTHY SCENARIO IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAKING AN INITIAL STAB AT A HEADLINE. WORTH NOTING
THAT 06Z NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, BUT HAS SHOWN A STRONG
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD AFOREMENTIONED PREFERRED CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY, EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A LATE WEEK CLIPPER WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO MARKING THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH SAT AND/OR
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 10 DEGREES. CONSECUTIVE
MORNINGS OF SUB-ZERO LOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER
MARINE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SNOW SHOWER PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
DURING TUESDAY AND LEAVE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO MODERATE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
AND COMBINES WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELD FOR BUILDING WAVES AND
STRONGER SNOW SQUALLS. THIS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AND THEN WIND
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 081702
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1202 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

TIMING OF LOW CLOUD (MVFR) DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THE CHALLENGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR SLOWER FILTERS EAST THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST. WHEN
LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) ARRIVE (POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF THROUGH EARLY
EVENING)...NEXT OCCUR OF BUSINESS IS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS MBS/FNT LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION (COUPLE INCHES) CAN
BE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN TAFS FOR THIS EVENING IS LOW.
LIGHT...MOSTLY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL INCREASE A
BIT TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL BOOST/BETTER MIXING SUPPORTING GUSTS OF
20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY BETTER.

AT DTW...
MID LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY IN PLACE TO START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE
TERMINAL SITE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXACT TIMING REMAINS
DIFFICULT...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHES INITIALLY. A
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE TRACKING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY HELP TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT BETTER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW POSSIBLE...AROUND 1 INCH. ALONG WITH THE
SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM
  THIS EVENING...AND HIGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 829 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATE...

IN LIGHT OF CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS...AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
TO DROP AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES AROUND PORT HURON. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
VALID AS THE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION BAND SLOWLY PUSHES BACK TOWARD
THE EAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

NWP CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGETIC FLOW ACROSS NOAM AT PRESS
TIME. VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH IS CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS EVOLUTION HAS LARGELY BEEN GUIDED BY A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND A POWERFUL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. INTERACTION WITH A 165KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
ADDITIONALLY GUIDE THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SAINT LOUIS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WAS
UNIVERSALLY UNDERSIMULATED BY PRIOR MODEL CYCLES AND BETTER SAMPLING
HAS ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE IMPACTFUL EVOLUTION
LOCALLY. SPECIFICALLY, AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS FROM STL TO LAKE ERIE,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED INVOF THE LAKE. DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND WITHIN WHICH
DEFORMATION AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS NWP SPREAD FALLS INTO AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT
CAMPS. THE EC/ARW/NMM REPRESENT THE STRONGEST CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS PREFERRED CLUSTER IS MOST STRONGLY
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR REMAIN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AND CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS FURTHER
DIMINISHED BY UNUSUALLY VOLATILE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BY THE
RAP/HRRR.

THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
ORGANIZING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT ONSHORE IN THE THUMB.
HAVING ORGANIZED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS IN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT , THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
POOLING AND THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
OVERACHIEVING SCENARIO. THE NMM/ARW THEN ALLOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO LATCH ON TO LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING BY A FEW
ADDITIONAL MILLIBARS OVER THE LAKE -A PERFECTLY REASONABLE SCENARIO-
THE STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL AS MORE AGGRESSIVE INLAND PENETRATION. THE MORE COARSE EC
EXPECTEDLY PEELS THE LOW AWAY FASTER, CONFINING ACCUMS TO A SMALLER
RANGE AND TO A SMALLER PORTION OF THE THUMB. CONSENSUS EC/ARW/NMM
QPF YIELDS 12-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
24-HOUR TOTALS OF 4-7" IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRITICAL
SURFACE FEATURES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR A WWA-WORTHY SCENARIO IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAKING AN INITIAL STAB AT A HEADLINE. WORTH NOTING
THAT 06Z NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, BUT HAS SHOWN A STRONG
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD AFOREMENTIONED PREFERRED CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY, EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A LATE WEEK CLIPPER WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO MARKING THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH SAT AND/OR
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 10 DEGREES. CONSECUTIVE
MORNINGS OF SUB-ZERO LOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER
MARINE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SNOW SHOWER PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
DURING TUESDAY AND LEAVE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO MODERATE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
AND COMBINES WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELD FOR BUILDING WAVES AND
STRONGER SNOW SQUALLS. THIS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AND THEN WIND
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 081702
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1202 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

TIMING OF LOW CLOUD (MVFR) DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THE CHALLENGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR SLOWER FILTERS EAST THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST. WHEN
LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) ARRIVE (POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF THROUGH EARLY
EVENING)...NEXT OCCUR OF BUSINESS IS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS MBS/FNT LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION (COUPLE INCHES) CAN
BE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN TAFS FOR THIS EVENING IS LOW.
LIGHT...MOSTLY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL INCREASE A
BIT TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL BOOST/BETTER MIXING SUPPORTING GUSTS OF
20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY BETTER.

AT DTW...
MID LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY IN PLACE TO START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE
TERMINAL SITE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXACT TIMING REMAINS
DIFFICULT...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHES INITIALLY. A
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE TRACKING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY HELP TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT BETTER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW POSSIBLE...AROUND 1 INCH. ALONG WITH THE
SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM
  THIS EVENING...AND HIGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST CROSSWIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 829 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATE...

IN LIGHT OF CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS...AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
TO DROP AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES AROUND PORT HURON. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
VALID AS THE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION BAND SLOWLY PUSHES BACK TOWARD
THE EAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

NWP CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGETIC FLOW ACROSS NOAM AT PRESS
TIME. VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH IS CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS EVOLUTION HAS LARGELY BEEN GUIDED BY A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND A POWERFUL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. INTERACTION WITH A 165KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
ADDITIONALLY GUIDE THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SAINT LOUIS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WAS
UNIVERSALLY UNDERSIMULATED BY PRIOR MODEL CYCLES AND BETTER SAMPLING
HAS ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE IMPACTFUL EVOLUTION
LOCALLY. SPECIFICALLY, AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS FROM STL TO LAKE ERIE,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED INVOF THE LAKE. DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND WITHIN WHICH
DEFORMATION AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS NWP SPREAD FALLS INTO AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT
CAMPS. THE EC/ARW/NMM REPRESENT THE STRONGEST CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS PREFERRED CLUSTER IS MOST STRONGLY
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR REMAIN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AND CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS FURTHER
DIMINISHED BY UNUSUALLY VOLATILE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BY THE
RAP/HRRR.

THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
ORGANIZING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT ONSHORE IN THE THUMB.
HAVING ORGANIZED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS IN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT , THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
POOLING AND THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
OVERACHIEVING SCENARIO. THE NMM/ARW THEN ALLOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO LATCH ON TO LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING BY A FEW
ADDITIONAL MILLIBARS OVER THE LAKE -A PERFECTLY REASONABLE SCENARIO-
THE STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL AS MORE AGGRESSIVE INLAND PENETRATION. THE MORE COARSE EC
EXPECTEDLY PEELS THE LOW AWAY FASTER, CONFINING ACCUMS TO A SMALLER
RANGE AND TO A SMALLER PORTION OF THE THUMB. CONSENSUS EC/ARW/NMM
QPF YIELDS 12-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
24-HOUR TOTALS OF 4-7" IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRITICAL
SURFACE FEATURES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR A WWA-WORTHY SCENARIO IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAKING AN INITIAL STAB AT A HEADLINE. WORTH NOTING
THAT 06Z NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, BUT HAS SHOWN A STRONG
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD AFOREMENTIONED PREFERRED CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY, EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A LATE WEEK CLIPPER WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO MARKING THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH SAT AND/OR
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 10 DEGREES. CONSECUTIVE
MORNINGS OF SUB-ZERO LOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER
MARINE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SNOW SHOWER PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
DURING TUESDAY AND LEAVE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO MODERATE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
AND COMBINES WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELD FOR BUILDING WAVES AND
STRONGER SNOW SQUALLS. THIS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AND THEN WIND
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 081700
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.  THE SNOW WILL PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER LAKESHORE AREAS COULD
SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.  COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKESHORE
AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE INLAND AREAS
ALSO SEE SNOW...BUT JUST A COUPLE INCHES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S INTO THE
WEEKEND.  ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE TWEAKED THE FCST A LITTLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER
PCPN CHCS ACROSS THE EAST.

PESKY AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS
E/SE TODAY THUS FAR...KEEPING PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OUT OVER
THE LAKE AND ACROSS WISCONSIN. THERE IS A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN THAT ARE TRYING
TO MOVE IN. THESE WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS INLAND GRADUALLY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW CAN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE NW FLOW TO
KICK IN.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 30S MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CAN MOVE IN LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

STACKED UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED.  NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING WITH THIS RATHER
FILLED LOW...SO THE PCPN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL JUST BE WET TODAY. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WITH A SLIGHT BOOST FROM THE LAKE...SOME LAKESHORE AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.

THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP.  THIS IS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING.  AND SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...UNTIL
WE ARE MORE CERTAIN OF IT/S TIMING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DELTA
T/S SHOULD RISE LATE TUESDAY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL
SHOULD INCREASE. THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS 335-345 AND ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE EXPECT WE WILL SEE DOMINATE BANDS THAT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SABLE POINTS.

THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO LATE WED WHEN THE SNOWS SHOULD
LET UP. CERTAINLY APPEARS SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. HIGHS BY WED SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND
20 AS WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WINTER WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT IN THE LONG TERM. THE IMPACT OF WINTER
WILL BE MORE IN TERMS OF THE COLD THOUGH AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BELTS.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS MAINLY IN THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES...WITH MASON...OCEANA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
SEEING THE BETTER BANDING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SOME ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POURING IN BEHIND IT. THE
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

THE AIR THAT SURGES IN OVER THE WEEKEND IS COLDER IN THE ECMWF AND
REACHES THE -26C TO -30C RANGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO LOWS. WE WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z. THE
FRONT WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PUSH INTO ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. VISIBILITIES
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE EITHER VFR (FLURRIES)
OR MVFR AT WORST.

TONIGHT...THE SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES BECOMING MORE COMMON AND CEILINGS TRENDING INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.  WE MAY REACH
BORDERLINE GALES TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 081700
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.  THE SNOW WILL PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER LAKESHORE AREAS COULD
SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.  COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKESHORE
AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE INLAND AREAS
ALSO SEE SNOW...BUT JUST A COUPLE INCHES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S INTO THE
WEEKEND.  ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE TWEAKED THE FCST A LITTLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER
PCPN CHCS ACROSS THE EAST.

PESKY AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS
E/SE TODAY THUS FAR...KEEPING PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OUT OVER
THE LAKE AND ACROSS WISCONSIN. THERE IS A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN THAT ARE TRYING
TO MOVE IN. THESE WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS INLAND GRADUALLY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW CAN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE NW FLOW TO
KICK IN.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 30S MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CAN MOVE IN LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

STACKED UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED.  NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING WITH THIS RATHER
FILLED LOW...SO THE PCPN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL JUST BE WET TODAY. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WITH A SLIGHT BOOST FROM THE LAKE...SOME LAKESHORE AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.

THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP.  THIS IS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING.  AND SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...UNTIL
WE ARE MORE CERTAIN OF IT/S TIMING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DELTA
T/S SHOULD RISE LATE TUESDAY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL
SHOULD INCREASE. THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS 335-345 AND ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE EXPECT WE WILL SEE DOMINATE BANDS THAT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SABLE POINTS.

THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO LATE WED WHEN THE SNOWS SHOULD
LET UP. CERTAINLY APPEARS SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. HIGHS BY WED SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND
20 AS WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WINTER WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT IN THE LONG TERM. THE IMPACT OF WINTER
WILL BE MORE IN TERMS OF THE COLD THOUGH AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BELTS.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS MAINLY IN THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES...WITH MASON...OCEANA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
SEEING THE BETTER BANDING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SOME ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POURING IN BEHIND IT. THE
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

THE AIR THAT SURGES IN OVER THE WEEKEND IS COLDER IN THE ECMWF AND
REACHES THE -26C TO -30C RANGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO LOWS. WE WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z. THE
FRONT WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PUSH INTO ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. VISIBILITIES
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE EITHER VFR (FLURRIES)
OR MVFR AT WORST.

TONIGHT...THE SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES BECOMING MORE COMMON AND CEILINGS TRENDING INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.  WE MAY REACH
BORDERLINE GALES TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 081700
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.  THE SNOW WILL PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER LAKESHORE AREAS COULD
SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.  COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKESHORE
AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE INLAND AREAS
ALSO SEE SNOW...BUT JUST A COUPLE INCHES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S INTO THE
WEEKEND.  ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE TWEAKED THE FCST A LITTLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER
PCPN CHCS ACROSS THE EAST.

PESKY AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS
E/SE TODAY THUS FAR...KEEPING PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OUT OVER
THE LAKE AND ACROSS WISCONSIN. THERE IS A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN THAT ARE TRYING
TO MOVE IN. THESE WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS INLAND GRADUALLY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW CAN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE NW FLOW TO
KICK IN.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 30S MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CAN MOVE IN LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

STACKED UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED.  NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING WITH THIS RATHER
FILLED LOW...SO THE PCPN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL JUST BE WET TODAY. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WITH A SLIGHT BOOST FROM THE LAKE...SOME LAKESHORE AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.

THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP.  THIS IS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING.  AND SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...UNTIL
WE ARE MORE CERTAIN OF IT/S TIMING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DELTA
T/S SHOULD RISE LATE TUESDAY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL
SHOULD INCREASE. THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS 335-345 AND ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE EXPECT WE WILL SEE DOMINATE BANDS THAT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SABLE POINTS.

THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO LATE WED WHEN THE SNOWS SHOULD
LET UP. CERTAINLY APPEARS SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. HIGHS BY WED SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND
20 AS WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WINTER WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT IN THE LONG TERM. THE IMPACT OF WINTER
WILL BE MORE IN TERMS OF THE COLD THOUGH AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BELTS.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS MAINLY IN THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES...WITH MASON...OCEANA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
SEEING THE BETTER BANDING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SOME ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POURING IN BEHIND IT. THE
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

THE AIR THAT SURGES IN OVER THE WEEKEND IS COLDER IN THE ECMWF AND
REACHES THE -26C TO -30C RANGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO LOWS. WE WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z. THE
FRONT WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PUSH INTO ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. VISIBILITIES
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE EITHER VFR (FLURRIES)
OR MVFR AT WORST.

TONIGHT...THE SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES BECOMING MORE COMMON AND CEILINGS TRENDING INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.  WE MAY REACH
BORDERLINE GALES TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 081700
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.  THE SNOW WILL PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER LAKESHORE AREAS COULD
SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.  COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKESHORE
AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE INLAND AREAS
ALSO SEE SNOW...BUT JUST A COUPLE INCHES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S INTO THE
WEEKEND.  ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE TWEAKED THE FCST A LITTLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER
PCPN CHCS ACROSS THE EAST.

PESKY AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS
E/SE TODAY THUS FAR...KEEPING PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OUT OVER
THE LAKE AND ACROSS WISCONSIN. THERE IS A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN THAT ARE TRYING
TO MOVE IN. THESE WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS INLAND GRADUALLY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW CAN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE NW FLOW TO
KICK IN.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 30S MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CAN MOVE IN LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

STACKED UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED.  NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING WITH THIS RATHER
FILLED LOW...SO THE PCPN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL JUST BE WET TODAY. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WITH A SLIGHT BOOST FROM THE LAKE...SOME LAKESHORE AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.

THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP.  THIS IS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING.  AND SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...UNTIL
WE ARE MORE CERTAIN OF IT/S TIMING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DELTA
T/S SHOULD RISE LATE TUESDAY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL
SHOULD INCREASE. THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS 335-345 AND ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE EXPECT WE WILL SEE DOMINATE BANDS THAT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SABLE POINTS.

THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO LATE WED WHEN THE SNOWS SHOULD
LET UP. CERTAINLY APPEARS SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. HIGHS BY WED SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND
20 AS WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WINTER WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT IN THE LONG TERM. THE IMPACT OF WINTER
WILL BE MORE IN TERMS OF THE COLD THOUGH AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BELTS.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS MAINLY IN THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES...WITH MASON...OCEANA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
SEEING THE BETTER BANDING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SOME ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POURING IN BEHIND IT. THE
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

THE AIR THAT SURGES IN OVER THE WEEKEND IS COLDER IN THE ECMWF AND
REACHES THE -26C TO -30C RANGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO LOWS. WE WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z. THE
FRONT WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PUSH INTO ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. VISIBILITIES
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE EITHER VFR (FLURRIES)
OR MVFR AT WORST.

TONIGHT...THE SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES BECOMING MORE COMMON AND CEILINGS TRENDING INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.  WE MAY REACH
BORDERLINE GALES TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 081700
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.  THE SNOW WILL PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER LAKESHORE AREAS COULD
SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.  COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKESHORE
AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE INLAND AREAS
ALSO SEE SNOW...BUT JUST A COUPLE INCHES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S INTO THE
WEEKEND.  ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE TWEAKED THE FCST A LITTLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER
PCPN CHCS ACROSS THE EAST.

PESKY AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS
E/SE TODAY THUS FAR...KEEPING PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OUT OVER
THE LAKE AND ACROSS WISCONSIN. THERE IS A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN THAT ARE TRYING
TO MOVE IN. THESE WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS INLAND GRADUALLY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW CAN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE NW FLOW TO
KICK IN.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 30S MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CAN MOVE IN LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

STACKED UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED.  NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING WITH THIS RATHER
FILLED LOW...SO THE PCPN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL JUST BE WET TODAY. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WITH A SLIGHT BOOST FROM THE LAKE...SOME LAKESHORE AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.

THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP.  THIS IS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING.  AND SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...UNTIL
WE ARE MORE CERTAIN OF IT/S TIMING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DELTA
T/S SHOULD RISE LATE TUESDAY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL
SHOULD INCREASE. THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS 335-345 AND ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE EXPECT WE WILL SEE DOMINATE BANDS THAT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SABLE POINTS.

THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO LATE WED WHEN THE SNOWS SHOULD
LET UP. CERTAINLY APPEARS SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. HIGHS BY WED SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND
20 AS WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WINTER WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT IN THE LONG TERM. THE IMPACT OF WINTER
WILL BE MORE IN TERMS OF THE COLD THOUGH AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BELTS.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS MAINLY IN THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES...WITH MASON...OCEANA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
SEEING THE BETTER BANDING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SOME ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POURING IN BEHIND IT. THE
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

THE AIR THAT SURGES IN OVER THE WEEKEND IS COLDER IN THE ECMWF AND
REACHES THE -26C TO -30C RANGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO LOWS. WE WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z. THE
FRONT WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PUSH INTO ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. VISIBILITIES
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE EITHER VFR (FLURRIES)
OR MVFR AT WORST.

TONIGHT...THE SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES BECOMING MORE COMMON AND CEILINGS TRENDING INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.  WE MAY REACH
BORDERLINE GALES TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER TEMPERATURES (AS OPPOSED TO PRECIPITATION) WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE
BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS... AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STREAMS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RIVERS MAY CREATE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO ICE BUILD UP.
IN THE EVENT OF ICE FORMATION...FLUCTUATIONS COULD RESULT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY SENDING SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR
OVER BANKFULL.

THE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL COME IN PERIODIC EPISODES. THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL
FAVOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MINIMIZE RISK DUE TO RUNOFF...LIMITING THE RISK
MAINLY TO ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KMQT 081651
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1151 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.

TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 081559
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1059 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.  THE SNOW WILL PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER LAKESHORE AREAS COULD
SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.  COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKESHORE
AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE INLAND AREAS
ALSO SEE SNOW...BUT JUST A COUPLE INCHES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S INTO THE
WEEKEND.  ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WE HAVE TWEAKED THE FCST A LITTLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER
PCPN CHCS ACROSS THE EAST.

PESKY AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS
E/SE TODAY THUS FAR...KEEPING PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OUT OVER
THE LAKE AND ACROSS WISCONSIN. THERE IS A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN THAT ARE TRYING
TO MOVE IN. THESE WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS INLAND GRADUALLY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW CAN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE NW FLOW TO
KICK IN.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 30S MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CAN MOVE IN LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

STACKED UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED.  NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING WITH THIS RATHER
FILLED LOW...SO THE PCPN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL JUST BE WET TODAY. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WITH A SLIGHT BOOST FROM THE LAKE...SOME LAKESHORE AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.

THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP.  THIS IS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING.  AND SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...UNTIL
WE ARE MORE CERTAIN OF IT/S TIMING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DELTA
T/S SHOULD RISE LATE TUESDAY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL
SHOULD INCREASE. THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS 335-345 AND ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE EXPECT WE WILL SEE DOMINATE BANDS THAT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SABLE POINTS.

THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO LATE WED WHEN THE SNOWS SHOULD
LET UP. CERTAINLY APPEARS SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. HIGHS BY WED SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND
20 AS WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WINTER WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT IN THE LONG TERM. THE IMPACT OF WINTER
WILL BE MORE IN TERMS OF THE COLD THOUGH AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BELTS.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS MAINLY IN THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES...WITH MASON...OCEANA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
SEEING THE BETTER BANDING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SOME ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POURING IN BEHIND IT. THE
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

THE AIR THAT SURGES IN OVER THE WEEKEND IS COLDER IN THE ECMWF AND
REACHES THE -26C TO -30C RANGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO LOWS. WE WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z. THE
FRONT WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PUSH INTO ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. VISIBILITIES
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE EITHER VFR (FLURRIES)
OR MVFR AT WORST.

TONIGHT...THE SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES BECOMING MORE COMMON AND CEILINGS TRENDING INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.  WE MAY REACH
BORDERLINE GALES TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KAPX 081504
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1004 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINING
BASICALLY PCPN FREE...AS SFC AND UPPER LOWS REMAIN CENTERED RIGHT
OVER NRN MI THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PCPN
CURRENTLY IN THE AREA SPINNING AROUND NRN MI AND CONFINED TO
WISCONSIN...WRN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE THUMB. HOWEVER EXPECT PCPN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC AND UPPER
LOWS PUSH EAST OF THE REGION.

VIS SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
OVER NRN MI...WHILE OVC LOW CLOUD DECK CONTS TO SPIN AROUND THE
PIVOT POINT OF NRN MI THIS MORNING. THESE BREAKS AND SOME SUN HAVE
HELPED CLEAR UP FOG AND VSBY ACROSS NRN MI.

OVERALL CURRENT FCST TREND IS IN LINE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
EXPECTED YET THIS MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FREEZING FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT PLN AND PERHAPS APN
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL FILL IN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL SLIP
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. EXPECT LOW CIGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THAT COLDER
AIR SLIPS DOWN OVER A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LEADING TO
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT. SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT TVC/MBL/APN.

WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHWEST BY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SWR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KDTX 081329
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
829 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...

IN LIGHT OF CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS...AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
TO DROP AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES AROUND PORT HURON. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
VALID AS THE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION BAND SLOWLY PUSHES BACK TOWARD
THE EAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 648 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A GENERAL TREND TOWARD MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A SECONDARY FRONT AND AS
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
CIRCULATION ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE WILL BE COOLER BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SNOW UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET. THE CIRCULATION MOVING UP
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE
SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL OCCUR MOSTLY OVER THE
THUMB THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENT AND
IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR BETTER EVIDENCE
BEFORE ADDING TO THE TAF.

AT DTW... MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL COMBINE WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILING. MVFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR WITH GREATER FREQUENCY OF SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...LESS
THAN 1 INCH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY...AND SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

NWP CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGETIC FLOW ACROSS NOAM AT PRESS
TIME. VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH IS CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS EVOLUTION HAS LARGELY BEEN GUIDED BY A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND A POWERFUL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. INTERACTION WITH A 165KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
ADDITIONALLY GUIDE THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SAINT LOUIS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WAS
UNIVERSALLY UNDERSIMULATED BY PRIOR MODEL CYCLES AND BETTER SAMPLING
HAS ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE IMPACTFUL EVOLUTION
LOCALLY. SPECIFICALLY, AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS FROM STL TO LAKE ERIE,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED INVOF THE LAKE. DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND WITHIN WHICH
DEFORMATION AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS NWP SPREAD FALLS INTO AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT
CAMPS. THE EC/ARW/NMM REPRESENT THE STRONGEST CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS PREFERRED CLUSTER IS MOST STRONGLY
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR REMAIN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AND CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS FURTHER
DIMINISHED BY UNUSUALLY VOLATILE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BY THE
RAP/HRRR.

THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
ORGANIZING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT ONSHORE IN THE THUMB.
HAVING ORGANIZED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS IN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT , THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
POOLING AND THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
OVERACHIEVING SCENARIO. THE NMM/ARW THEN ALLOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO LATCH ON TO LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING BY A FEW
ADDITIONAL MILLIBARS OVER THE LAKE -A PERFECTLY REASONABLE SCENARIO-
THE STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL AS MORE AGGRESSIVE INLAND PENETRATION. THE MORE COARSE EC
EXPECTEDLY PEELS THE LOW AWAY FASTER, CONFINING ACCUMS TO A SMALLER
RANGE AND TO A SMALLER PORTION OF THE THUMB. CONSENSUS EC/ARW/NMM
QPF YIELDS 12-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
24-HOUR TOTALS OF 4-7" IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRITICAL
SURFACE FEATURES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR A WWA-WORTHY SCENARIO IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAKING AN INITIAL STAB AT A HEADLINE. WORTH NOTING
THAT 06Z NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, BUT HAS SHOWN A STRONG
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD AFOREMENTIONED PREFERRED CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY, EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A LATE WEEK CLIPPER WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO MARKING THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH SAT AND/OR
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 10 DEGREES. CONSECUTIVE
MORNINGS OF SUB-ZERO LOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER
MARINE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SNOW SHOWER PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
DURING TUESDAY AND LEAVE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO MODERATE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
AND COMBINES WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELD FOR BUILDING WAVES AND
STRONGER SNOW SQUALLS. THIS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AND THEN WIND
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 081206
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
706 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.  THE SNOW WILL PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER LAKESHORE AREAS COULD
SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.  COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKESHORE
AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE INLAND AREAS
ALSO SEE SNOW...BUT JUST A COUPLE INCHES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S INTO THE
WEEKEND.  ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

STACKED UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED.  NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING WITH THIS RATHER
FILLED LOW...SO THE PCPN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL JUST BE WET TODAY. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WITH A SLIGHT BOOST FROM THE LAKE...SOME LAKESHORE AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.

THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP.  THIS IS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING.  AND SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...UNTIL
WE ARE MORE CERTAIN OF IT/S TIMING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DELTA
T/S SHOULD RISE LATE TUESDAY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL
SHOULD INCREASE. THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS 335-345 AND ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE EXPECT WE WILL SEE DOMINATE BANDS THAT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SABLE POINTS.

THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO LATE WED WHEN THE SNOWS SHOULD
LET UP. CERTAINLY APPEARS SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. HIGHS BY WED SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND
20 AS WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WINTER WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT IN THE LONG TERM. THE IMPACT OF WINTER
WILL BE MORE IN TERMS OF THE COLD THOUGH AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BELTS.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS MAINLY IN THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES...WITH MASON...OCEANA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
SEEING THE BETTER BANDING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SOME ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POURING IN BEHIND IT. THE
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

THE AIR THAT SURGES IN OVER THE WEEKEND IS COLDER IN THE ECMWF AND
REACHES THE -26C TO -30C RANGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO LOWS. WE WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z. THE
FRONT WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PUSH INTO ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. VISIBILITIES
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE EITHER VFR (FLURRIES)
OR MVFR AT WORST.

TONIGHT...THE SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES BECOMING MORE COMMON AND CEILINGS TRENDING INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.  WE MAY REACH
BORDERLINE GALES TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KMQT 081157
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.

TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 081157
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.

TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 081157
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.

TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



000
FXUS63 KDTX 081148
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
648 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

A GENERAL TREND TOWARD MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A SECONDARY FRONT AND AS
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
CIRCULATION ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE WILL BE COOLER BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SNOW UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET. THE CIRCULATION MOVING UP
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE
SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL OCCUR MOSTLY OVER THE
THUMB THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENT AND
IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR BETTER EVIDENCE
BEFORE ADDING TO THE TAF.

AT DTW... MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL COMBINE WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILING. MVFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR WITH GREATER FREQUENCY OF SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...LESS
THAN 1 INCH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY...AND SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

NWP CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGETIC FLOW ACROSS NOAM AT PRESS
TIME. VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH IS CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS EVOLUTION HAS LARGELY BEEN GUIDED BY A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND A POWERFUL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. INTERACTION WITH A 165KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
ADDITIONALLY GUIDE THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SAINT LOUIS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WAS
UNIVERSALLY UNDERSIMULATED BY PRIOR MODEL CYCLES AND BETTER SAMPLING
HAS ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE IMPACTFUL EVOLUTION
LOCALLY. SPECIFICALLY, AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS FROM STL TO LAKE ERIE,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED INVOF THE LAKE. DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND WITHIN WHICH
DEFORMATION AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS NWP SPREAD FALLS INTO AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT
CAMPS. THE EC/ARW/NMM REPRESENT THE STRONGEST CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS PREFERRED CLUSTER IS MOST STRONGLY
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR REMAIN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AND CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS FURTHER
DIMINISHED BY UNUSUALLY VOLATILE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BY THE
RAP/HRRR.

THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
ORGANIZING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT ONSHORE IN THE THUMB.
HAVING ORGANIZED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS IN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT , THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
POOLING AND THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
OVERACHIEVING SCENARIO. THE NMM/ARW THEN ALLOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO LATCH ON TO LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING BY A FEW
ADDITIONAL MILLIBARS OVER THE LAKE -A PERFECTLY REASONABLE SCENARIO-
THE STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL AS MORE AGGRESSIVE INLAND PENETRATION. THE MORE COARSE EC
EXPECTEDLY PEELS THE LOW AWAY FASTER, CONFINING ACCUMS TO A SMALLER
RANGE AND TO A SMALLER PORTION OF THE THUMB. CONSENSUS EC/ARW/NMM
QPF YIELDS 12-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
24-HOUR TOTALS OF 4-7" IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRITICAL
SURFACE FEATURES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR A WWA-WORTHY SCENARIO IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAKING AN INITIAL STAB AT A HEADLINE. WORTH NOTING
THAT 06Z NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, BUT HAS SHOWN A STRONG
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD AFOREMENTIONED PREFERRED CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY, EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A LATE WEEK CLIPPER WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO MARKING THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH SAT AND/OR
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 10 DEGREES. CONSECUTIVE
MORNINGS OF SUB-ZERO LOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER
MARINE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SNOW SHOWER PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
DURING TUESDAY AND LEAVE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO MODERATE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
AND COMBINES WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELD FOR BUILDING WAVES AND
STRONGER SNOW SQUALLS. THIS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AND THEN WIND
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 081148
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
648 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

A GENERAL TREND TOWARD MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A SECONDARY FRONT AND AS
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
CIRCULATION ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE WILL BE COOLER BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SNOW UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET. THE CIRCULATION MOVING UP
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE
SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL OCCUR MOSTLY OVER THE
THUMB THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENT AND
IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR BETTER EVIDENCE
BEFORE ADDING TO THE TAF.

AT DTW... MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL COMBINE WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILING. MVFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR WITH GREATER FREQUENCY OF SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...LESS
THAN 1 INCH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY...AND SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

NWP CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGETIC FLOW ACROSS NOAM AT PRESS
TIME. VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH IS CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS EVOLUTION HAS LARGELY BEEN GUIDED BY A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND A POWERFUL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. INTERACTION WITH A 165KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
ADDITIONALLY GUIDE THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SAINT LOUIS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WAS
UNIVERSALLY UNDERSIMULATED BY PRIOR MODEL CYCLES AND BETTER SAMPLING
HAS ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE IMPACTFUL EVOLUTION
LOCALLY. SPECIFICALLY, AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS FROM STL TO LAKE ERIE,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED INVOF THE LAKE. DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND WITHIN WHICH
DEFORMATION AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS NWP SPREAD FALLS INTO AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT
CAMPS. THE EC/ARW/NMM REPRESENT THE STRONGEST CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS PREFERRED CLUSTER IS MOST STRONGLY
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR REMAIN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AND CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS FURTHER
DIMINISHED BY UNUSUALLY VOLATILE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BY THE
RAP/HRRR.

THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
ORGANIZING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT ONSHORE IN THE THUMB.
HAVING ORGANIZED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS IN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT , THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
POOLING AND THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
OVERACHIEVING SCENARIO. THE NMM/ARW THEN ALLOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO LATCH ON TO LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING BY A FEW
ADDITIONAL MILLIBARS OVER THE LAKE -A PERFECTLY REASONABLE SCENARIO-
THE STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL AS MORE AGGRESSIVE INLAND PENETRATION. THE MORE COARSE EC
EXPECTEDLY PEELS THE LOW AWAY FASTER, CONFINING ACCUMS TO A SMALLER
RANGE AND TO A SMALLER PORTION OF THE THUMB. CONSENSUS EC/ARW/NMM
QPF YIELDS 12-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
24-HOUR TOTALS OF 4-7" IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRITICAL
SURFACE FEATURES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR A WWA-WORTHY SCENARIO IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAKING AN INITIAL STAB AT A HEADLINE. WORTH NOTING
THAT 06Z NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, BUT HAS SHOWN A STRONG
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD AFOREMENTIONED PREFERRED CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY, EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A LATE WEEK CLIPPER WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO MARKING THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH SAT AND/OR
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 10 DEGREES. CONSECUTIVE
MORNINGS OF SUB-ZERO LOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER
MARINE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SNOW SHOWER PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
DURING TUESDAY AND LEAVE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO MODERATE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
AND COMBINES WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELD FOR BUILDING WAVES AND
STRONGER SNOW SQUALLS. THIS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AND THEN WIND
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 081148
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
648 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

A GENERAL TREND TOWARD MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A SECONDARY FRONT AND AS
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
CIRCULATION ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE WILL BE COOLER BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SNOW UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET. THE CIRCULATION MOVING UP
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE
SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL OCCUR MOSTLY OVER THE
THUMB THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENT AND
IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR BETTER EVIDENCE
BEFORE ADDING TO THE TAF.

AT DTW... MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL COMBINE WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILING. MVFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR WITH GREATER FREQUENCY OF SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...LESS
THAN 1 INCH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY...AND SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

NWP CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGETIC FLOW ACROSS NOAM AT PRESS
TIME. VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH IS CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS EVOLUTION HAS LARGELY BEEN GUIDED BY A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND A POWERFUL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. INTERACTION WITH A 165KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
ADDITIONALLY GUIDE THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SAINT LOUIS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WAS
UNIVERSALLY UNDERSIMULATED BY PRIOR MODEL CYCLES AND BETTER SAMPLING
HAS ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE IMPACTFUL EVOLUTION
LOCALLY. SPECIFICALLY, AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS FROM STL TO LAKE ERIE,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED INVOF THE LAKE. DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND WITHIN WHICH
DEFORMATION AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS NWP SPREAD FALLS INTO AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT
CAMPS. THE EC/ARW/NMM REPRESENT THE STRONGEST CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS PREFERRED CLUSTER IS MOST STRONGLY
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR REMAIN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AND CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS FURTHER
DIMINISHED BY UNUSUALLY VOLATILE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BY THE
RAP/HRRR.

THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
ORGANIZING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT ONSHORE IN THE THUMB.
HAVING ORGANIZED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS IN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT , THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
POOLING AND THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
OVERACHIEVING SCENARIO. THE NMM/ARW THEN ALLOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO LATCH ON TO LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING BY A FEW
ADDITIONAL MILLIBARS OVER THE LAKE -A PERFECTLY REASONABLE SCENARIO-
THE STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL AS MORE AGGRESSIVE INLAND PENETRATION. THE MORE COARSE EC
EXPECTEDLY PEELS THE LOW AWAY FASTER, CONFINING ACCUMS TO A SMALLER
RANGE AND TO A SMALLER PORTION OF THE THUMB. CONSENSUS EC/ARW/NMM
QPF YIELDS 12-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
24-HOUR TOTALS OF 4-7" IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRITICAL
SURFACE FEATURES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR A WWA-WORTHY SCENARIO IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAKING AN INITIAL STAB AT A HEADLINE. WORTH NOTING
THAT 06Z NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, BUT HAS SHOWN A STRONG
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD AFOREMENTIONED PREFERRED CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY, EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A LATE WEEK CLIPPER WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO MARKING THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH SAT AND/OR
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 10 DEGREES. CONSECUTIVE
MORNINGS OF SUB-ZERO LOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER
MARINE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SNOW SHOWER PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
DURING TUESDAY AND LEAVE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO MODERATE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
AND COMBINES WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELD FOR BUILDING WAVES AND
STRONGER SNOW SQUALLS. THIS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AND THEN WIND
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 081138
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FREEZING FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT PLN AND PERHAPS APN
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL FILL IN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL SLIP
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. EXPECT LOW CIGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THAT COLDER
AIR SLIPS DOWN OVER A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LEADING TO
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT. SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT TVC/MBL/APN.

WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHWEST BY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 081138
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FREEZING FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT PLN AND PERHAPS APN
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL FILL IN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL SLIP
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. EXPECT LOW CIGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THAT COLDER
AIR SLIPS DOWN OVER A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LEADING TO
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT. SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT TVC/MBL/APN.

WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHWEST BY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 081138
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FREEZING FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT PLN AND PERHAPS APN
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL FILL IN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL SLIP
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. EXPECT LOW CIGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THAT COLDER
AIR SLIPS DOWN OVER A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LEADING TO
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT. SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT TVC/MBL/APN.

WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHWEST BY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM



000
FXUS63 KMQT 081022
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.

TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 081001
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DUE TO LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND LLVL SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING LO PRES OVER WCENTRAL UPR MI THAT WL IMPACT
CENTRAL UPR MI...REMOVED MENTION OF DRIZZLE FM THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 081001
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DUE TO LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND LLVL SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING LO PRES OVER WCENTRAL UPR MI THAT WL IMPACT
CENTRAL UPR MI...REMOVED MENTION OF DRIZZLE FM THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 080951
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
451 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

SKIES ARE VFR...AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF MVFR DEVELOPMENT
EVEN FURTHER. STILL BELIEVE THAT WILL OCCUR AS THERE IS SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT THAT OUGHT TO MORE EFFICIENTLY COOL THE BL RESULTING IN
LOWER CIGS. RELUCTANTLY KEPT MVFR THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THE BL MAY NOT BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR IFR
CIGS...MUCH LESS AREAS OF DRIZZLE. COULD HOWEVER SEE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THROUGH THE COLUMN. CHANCE IS STILL
LOW RIGHT NOW...AND WILL STILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.

WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 080915
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

SKIES ARE VFR...AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF MVFR DEVELOPMENT
EVEN FURTHER. STILL BELIEVE THAT WILL OCCUR AS THERE IS SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT THAT OUGHT TO MORE EFFICIENTLY COOL THE BL RESULTING IN
LOWER CIGS. RELUCTANTLY KEPT MVFR THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THE BL MAY NOT BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR IFR
CIGS...MUCH LESS AREAS OF DRIZZLE. COULD HOWEVER SEE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THROUGH THE COLUMN. CHANCE IS STILL
LOW RIGHT NOW...AND WILL STILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.

WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KDTX 080837
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NWP CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGETIC FLOW ACROSS NOAM AT PRESS
TIME. VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH IS CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS EVOLUTION HAS LARGELY BEEN GUIDED BY A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND A POWERFUL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. INTERACTION WITH A 165KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
ADDITIONALLY GUIDE THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SAINT LOUIS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WAS
UNIVERSALLY UNDERSIMULATED BY PRIOR MODEL CYCLES AND BETTER SAMPLING
HAS ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE IMPACTFUL EVOLUTION
LOCALLY. SPECIFICALLY, AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS FROM STL TO LAKE ERIE,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED INVOF THE LAKE. DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND WITHIN WHICH
DEFORMATION AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS NWP SPREAD FALLS INTO AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT
CAMPS. THE EC/ARW/NMM REPRESENT THE STRONGEST CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS PREFERRED CLUSTER IS MOST STRONGLY
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR REMAIN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AND CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS FURTHER
DIMINISHED BY UNUSUALLY VOLATILE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BY THE
RAP/HRRR.

THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
ORGANIZING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT ONSHORE IN THE THUMB.
HAVING ORGANIZED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS IN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT , THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
POOLING AND THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
OVERACHIEVING SCENARIO. THE NMM/ARW THEN ALLOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO LATCH ON TO LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING BY A FEW
ADDITIONAL MILLIBARS OVER THE LAKE -A PERFECTLY REASONABLE SCENARIO-
THE STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL AS MORE AGGRESSIVE INLAND PENETRATION. THE MORE COARSE EC
EXPECTEDLY PEELS THE LOW AWAY FASTER, CONFINING ACCUMS TO A SMALLER
RANGE AND TO A SMALLER PORTION OF THE THUMB. CONSENSUS EC/ARW/NMM
QPF YIELDS 12-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
24-HOUR TOTALS OF 4-7" IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRITICAL
SURFACE FEATURES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR A WWA-WORTHY SCENARIO IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAKING AN INITIAL STAB AT A HEADLINE. WORTH NOTING
THAT 06Z NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, BUT HAS SHOWN A STRONG
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD AFOREMENTIONED PREFERRED CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY, EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A LATE WEEK CLIPPER WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO MARKING THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH SAT AND/OR
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 10 DEGREES. CONSECUTIVE
MORNINGS OF SUB-ZERO LOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER
MARINE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SNOW SHOWER PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
DURING TUESDAY AND LEAVE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO MODERATE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
AND COMBINES WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELD FOR BUILDING WAVES AND
STRONGER SNOW SQUALLS. THIS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AND THEN WIND
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL WORK THROUGH TERMINALS EARLY
IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MBS/FNT. SSW FLOW WILL VEER TO SW ON
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE A DISTURBANCE PIVOTS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL STRATUS...LOWER VFR/MVFR. COLDER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY
FUNNEL INTO AREA MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ON W/WNW FLOW
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF -SHRASNS AND THEN JUST -SHSNS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS TOO
MUCH.

AT DTW...GENERALLY EXPECT CIGS ABOVE 5KFT OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT AREA
OF STRATUS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE LIFTS NORTH OF TERMINALS.
ADDITIONAL MVFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING WITH AT
LEAST BKN CIGS HOVERING IN THE 3000-5000 FOOT RANGE PERSISTING THRU
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM ON MONDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 080837
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NWP CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGETIC FLOW ACROSS NOAM AT PRESS
TIME. VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH IS CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS EVOLUTION HAS LARGELY BEEN GUIDED BY A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND A POWERFUL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. INTERACTION WITH A 165KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
ADDITIONALLY GUIDE THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SAINT LOUIS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WAS
UNIVERSALLY UNDERSIMULATED BY PRIOR MODEL CYCLES AND BETTER SAMPLING
HAS ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE IMPACTFUL EVOLUTION
LOCALLY. SPECIFICALLY, AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS FROM STL TO LAKE ERIE,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED INVOF THE LAKE. DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND WITHIN WHICH
DEFORMATION AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS NWP SPREAD FALLS INTO AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT
CAMPS. THE EC/ARW/NMM REPRESENT THE STRONGEST CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS PREFERRED CLUSTER IS MOST STRONGLY
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR REMAIN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AND CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS FURTHER
DIMINISHED BY UNUSUALLY VOLATILE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BY THE
RAP/HRRR.

THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
ORGANIZING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT ONSHORE IN THE THUMB.
HAVING ORGANIZED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS IN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT , THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
POOLING AND THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
OVERACHIEVING SCENARIO. THE NMM/ARW THEN ALLOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO LATCH ON TO LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING BY A FEW
ADDITIONAL MILLIBARS OVER THE LAKE -A PERFECTLY REASONABLE SCENARIO-
THE STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL AS MORE AGGRESSIVE INLAND PENETRATION. THE MORE COARSE EC
EXPECTEDLY PEELS THE LOW AWAY FASTER, CONFINING ACCUMS TO A SMALLER
RANGE AND TO A SMALLER PORTION OF THE THUMB. CONSENSUS EC/ARW/NMM
QPF YIELDS 12-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
24-HOUR TOTALS OF 4-7" IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRITICAL
SURFACE FEATURES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR A WWA-WORTHY SCENARIO IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAKING AN INITIAL STAB AT A HEADLINE. WORTH NOTING
THAT 06Z NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, BUT HAS SHOWN A STRONG
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD AFOREMENTIONED PREFERRED CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY, EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A LATE WEEK CLIPPER WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO MARKING THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH SAT AND/OR
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 10 DEGREES. CONSECUTIVE
MORNINGS OF SUB-ZERO LOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER
MARINE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SNOW SHOWER PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
DURING TUESDAY AND LEAVE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO MODERATE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
AND COMBINES WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELD FOR BUILDING WAVES AND
STRONGER SNOW SQUALLS. THIS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AND THEN WIND
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL WORK THROUGH TERMINALS EARLY
IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MBS/FNT. SSW FLOW WILL VEER TO SW ON
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE A DISTURBANCE PIVOTS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL STRATUS...LOWER VFR/MVFR. COLDER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY
FUNNEL INTO AREA MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ON W/WNW FLOW
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF -SHRASNS AND THEN JUST -SHSNS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS TOO
MUCH.

AT DTW...GENERALLY EXPECT CIGS ABOVE 5KFT OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT AREA
OF STRATUS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE LIFTS NORTH OF TERMINALS.
ADDITIONAL MVFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING WITH AT
LEAST BKN CIGS HOVERING IN THE 3000-5000 FOOT RANGE PERSISTING THRU
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM ON MONDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 080837
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NWP CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGETIC FLOW ACROSS NOAM AT PRESS
TIME. VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH IS CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS EVOLUTION HAS LARGELY BEEN GUIDED BY A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND A POWERFUL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. INTERACTION WITH A 165KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
ADDITIONALLY GUIDE THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SAINT LOUIS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WAS
UNIVERSALLY UNDERSIMULATED BY PRIOR MODEL CYCLES AND BETTER SAMPLING
HAS ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE IMPACTFUL EVOLUTION
LOCALLY. SPECIFICALLY, AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS FROM STL TO LAKE ERIE,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED INVOF THE LAKE. DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND WITHIN WHICH
DEFORMATION AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS NWP SPREAD FALLS INTO AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT
CAMPS. THE EC/ARW/NMM REPRESENT THE STRONGEST CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS PREFERRED CLUSTER IS MOST STRONGLY
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR REMAIN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AND CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS FURTHER
DIMINISHED BY UNUSUALLY VOLATILE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BY THE
RAP/HRRR.

THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
ORGANIZING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT ONSHORE IN THE THUMB.
HAVING ORGANIZED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS IN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT , THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
POOLING AND THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
OVERACHIEVING SCENARIO. THE NMM/ARW THEN ALLOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO LATCH ON TO LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING BY A FEW
ADDITIONAL MILLIBARS OVER THE LAKE -A PERFECTLY REASONABLE SCENARIO-
THE STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL AS MORE AGGRESSIVE INLAND PENETRATION. THE MORE COARSE EC
EXPECTEDLY PEELS THE LOW AWAY FASTER, CONFINING ACCUMS TO A SMALLER
RANGE AND TO A SMALLER PORTION OF THE THUMB. CONSENSUS EC/ARW/NMM
QPF YIELDS 12-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
24-HOUR TOTALS OF 4-7" IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRITICAL
SURFACE FEATURES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR A WWA-WORTHY SCENARIO IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAKING AN INITIAL STAB AT A HEADLINE. WORTH NOTING
THAT 06Z NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, BUT HAS SHOWN A STRONG
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD AFOREMENTIONED PREFERRED CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY, EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A LATE WEEK CLIPPER WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO MARKING THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH SAT AND/OR
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 10 DEGREES. CONSECUTIVE
MORNINGS OF SUB-ZERO LOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER
MARINE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SNOW SHOWER PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
DURING TUESDAY AND LEAVE NORTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO MODERATE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
AND COMBINES WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELD FOR BUILDING WAVES AND
STRONGER SNOW SQUALLS. THIS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AND THEN WIND
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL WORK THROUGH TERMINALS EARLY
IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MBS/FNT. SSW FLOW WILL VEER TO SW ON
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE A DISTURBANCE PIVOTS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL STRATUS...LOWER VFR/MVFR. COLDER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY
FUNNEL INTO AREA MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ON W/WNW FLOW
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF -SHRASNS AND THEN JUST -SHSNS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS TOO
MUCH.

AT DTW...GENERALLY EXPECT CIGS ABOVE 5KFT OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT AREA
OF STRATUS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE LIFTS NORTH OF TERMINALS.
ADDITIONAL MVFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING WITH AT
LEAST BKN CIGS HOVERING IN THE 3000-5000 FOOT RANGE PERSISTING THRU
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM ON MONDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 080830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.  THE SNOW WILL PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER LAKESHORE AREAS COULD
SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.  COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKESHORE
AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE INLAND AREAS
ALSO SEE SNOW...BUT JUST A COUPLE INCHES.  HIGH TEMPERATUES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S INTO THE
WEEKEND.  ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

STACKED UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED.  NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING WITH THIS RATHER
FILLED LOW...SO THE PCPN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING RAODS
WILL JUST BE WET TODAY.  ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH A
SLIGHTLY BOOST FROM THE LAKE...SOME LAKESHORE AREAS COULD SEE UP TO
TWO INCHES.

THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP.  THIS IS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING.  AND SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
ARCTIC...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...UNTIL WE ARE
MORE CERTAIN OF IT/S TIMING.  HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DELTA T/S SHOULD
RAISE LATE TUESDAY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD
INCREASE.  THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS 335-345 AND ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE EXPECT WE WILL SEE A DOMINATE BAND THAT WILL BUMP ON
WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SABLE POINTS.

THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO LATE WED WHEN THE SNOWS SHOULD
LET UP.  CERTAINLY APPERS SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSILBE OVER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.  HIGHS BY WED SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20 AS
WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WINTER WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT IN THE LONG TERM. THE IMPACT OF WINTER
WILL BE MORE IN TERMS OF THE COLD THOUGH AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BELTS.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS MAINLY IN THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES...WITH MASON...OCEANA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
SEEING THE BETTER BANDING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SOME ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES.

AN ACTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POURING IN BEHIND IT. THE
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

THE AIR THAT SURGES IN OVER THE WEEKEND IS COLDER IN THE ECMWF AND
REACHES THE -26C TO -30C RANGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO LOWS. WE WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. WILL GO
PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBYS IN THE TAFS... BUT A SMALL RISK OF IFR
TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS DOES EXIST BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...
ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO THE NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH SCATTERED LIGHT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.  WE MAY REACH
BORDERLINE GALES TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 080830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.  THE SNOW WILL PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER LAKESHORE AREAS COULD
SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.  COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKESHORE
AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE INLAND AREAS
ALSO SEE SNOW...BUT JUST A COUPLE INCHES.  HIGH TEMPERATUES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S INTO THE
WEEKEND.  ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

STACKED UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED.  NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING WITH THIS RATHER
FILLED LOW...SO THE PCPN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING RAODS
WILL JUST BE WET TODAY.  ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH A
SLIGHTLY BOOST FROM THE LAKE...SOME LAKESHORE AREAS COULD SEE UP TO
TWO INCHES.

THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP.  THIS IS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING.  AND SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
ARCTIC...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...UNTIL WE ARE
MORE CERTAIN OF IT/S TIMING.  HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DELTA T/S SHOULD
RAISE LATE TUESDAY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD
INCREASE.  THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS 335-345 AND ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE EXPECT WE WILL SEE A DOMINATE BAND THAT WILL BUMP ON
WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SABLE POINTS.

THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO LATE WED WHEN THE SNOWS SHOULD
LET UP.  CERTAINLY APPERS SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSILBE OVER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.  HIGHS BY WED SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20 AS
WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WINTER WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT IN THE LONG TERM. THE IMPACT OF WINTER
WILL BE MORE IN TERMS OF THE COLD THOUGH AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BELTS.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS MAINLY IN THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES...WITH MASON...OCEANA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
SEEING THE BETTER BANDING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SOME ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES.

AN ACTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POURING IN BEHIND IT. THE
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

THE AIR THAT SURGES IN OVER THE WEEKEND IS COLDER IN THE ECMWF AND
REACHES THE -26C TO -30C RANGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO LOWS. WE WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. WILL GO
PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBYS IN THE TAFS... BUT A SMALL RISK OF IFR
TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS DOES EXIST BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...
ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO THE NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH SCATTERED LIGHT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.  WE MAY REACH
BORDERLINE GALES TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 080830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.  THE SNOW WILL PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER LAKESHORE AREAS COULD
SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.  COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKESHORE
AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE INLAND AREAS
ALSO SEE SNOW...BUT JUST A COUPLE INCHES.  HIGH TEMPERATUES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S INTO THE
WEEKEND.  ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

STACKED UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED.  NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING WITH THIS RATHER
FILLED LOW...SO THE PCPN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING RAODS
WILL JUST BE WET TODAY.  ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH A
SLIGHTLY BOOST FROM THE LAKE...SOME LAKESHORE AREAS COULD SEE UP TO
TWO INCHES.

THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP.  THIS IS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING.  AND SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
ARCTIC...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...UNTIL WE ARE
MORE CERTAIN OF IT/S TIMING.  HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DELTA T/S SHOULD
RAISE LATE TUESDAY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD
INCREASE.  THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS 335-345 AND ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE EXPECT WE WILL SEE A DOMINATE BAND THAT WILL BUMP ON
WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SABLE POINTS.

THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO LATE WED WHEN THE SNOWS SHOULD
LET UP.  CERTAINLY APPERS SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSILBE OVER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.  HIGHS BY WED SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20 AS
WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WINTER WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT IN THE LONG TERM. THE IMPACT OF WINTER
WILL BE MORE IN TERMS OF THE COLD THOUGH AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BELTS.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS MAINLY IN THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES...WITH MASON...OCEANA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
SEEING THE BETTER BANDING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SOME ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES.

AN ACTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POURING IN BEHIND IT. THE
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

THE AIR THAT SURGES IN OVER THE WEEKEND IS COLDER IN THE ECMWF AND
REACHES THE -26C TO -30C RANGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO LOWS. WE WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. WILL GO
PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBYS IN THE TAFS... BUT A SMALL RISK OF IFR
TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS DOES EXIST BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...
ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO THE NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH SCATTERED LIGHT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.  WE MAY REACH
BORDERLINE GALES TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK



000
FXUS63 KMQT 080531
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DUE TO LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND LLVL SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING LO PRES OVER WCENTRAL UPR MI THAT WL IMPACT
CENTRAL UPR MI...REMOVED MENTION OF DRIZZLE FM THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 080531
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DUE TO LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND LLVL SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING LO PRES OVER WCENTRAL UPR MI THAT WL IMPACT
CENTRAL UPR MI...REMOVED MENTION OF DRIZZLE FM THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KGRR 080457
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
SLOW DOWN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS A COLDER AIRMASS ACCOMPANIES THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
SUPPORT IMPACTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TO START...MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER FOR MONDAY. WITH FORECASTED
HIGHS ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING...IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT ANY IMPACTS
FROM FALLING SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL. TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENING
COMMUTE...IT MAY GET CLOSE TO FREEZING...BUT THAT WILL MORE LIKELY
HAPPEN AFTER 00Z TUE. GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT.

IT LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE MORNING COMMUTE BEGINS FOR
TUESDAY...WE WILL BE SEEING IMPACTS. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORS THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 131. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SUPPORTS THE REGION SOUTH OF HOLLAND FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. ONCE THEY DEVELOP...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFT IN THE DGZ ACTUALLY INCREASES ALONG THE
LAKESHORE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS WE WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE IMPACTS
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW END
RISK FOR HIGH IMPACTS...MOSTLY THE HOLLAND TO SOUTH HAVEN REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED PATTERN
CHANGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR AFFECTING THE AREA ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING WITH REGARDS TO
THE LONG TERM.

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ERN
U.S. WILL BE ENCOMPASSED BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE NRN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW
AND DEEP COLD AIR TO BE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR HIGHER
INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY COMING OVER
THE LAKES. THERE LOOK TO BE SOME STRONG AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE AREAS THAT WILL BE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE THE NW AND SW CORNERS OF THE CWFA WITH LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW EXPECTED.

SOME REPRIEVE CAN BE EXPECTED BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH REGARDS TO
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BRIEFLY LIFT
OUT AND ALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN A BIT AS A RESULT.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN...SO SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD NOT TOTALLY
DISSIPATE.

WE WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COME IN THEN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SURGE WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR THAN MID WEEK WITH
H850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE MID 20S C. WE WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE AS MUCH LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER PATTERN SET
UP A BIT DIFFERENT. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CANADA...SFC RIDGING WILL SITUATE ITSELF SUCH THAT WE WILL SEE A N-
NE FLOW. THIS WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT WEST OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON. WE WILL JUST SEE ARCTIC AIR WITH SOME POTENTIAL SUNSHINE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. WILL GO
PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBYS IN THE TAFS... BUT A SMALL RISK OF IFR
TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS DOES EXIST BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...
ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO THE NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH SCATTERED LIGHT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WIND WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM
THIS EVENING. AFTER A LULL IN THE WINDS TONIGHT...THEY WILL START
TO INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE BUILDING WAVES. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 080457
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
SLOW DOWN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS A COLDER AIRMASS ACCOMPANIES THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
SUPPORT IMPACTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TO START...MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER FOR MONDAY. WITH FORECASTED
HIGHS ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING...IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT ANY IMPACTS
FROM FALLING SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL. TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENING
COMMUTE...IT MAY GET CLOSE TO FREEZING...BUT THAT WILL MORE LIKELY
HAPPEN AFTER 00Z TUE. GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT.

IT LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE MORNING COMMUTE BEGINS FOR
TUESDAY...WE WILL BE SEEING IMPACTS. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORS THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 131. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SUPPORTS THE REGION SOUTH OF HOLLAND FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. ONCE THEY DEVELOP...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFT IN THE DGZ ACTUALLY INCREASES ALONG THE
LAKESHORE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS WE WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE IMPACTS
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW END
RISK FOR HIGH IMPACTS...MOSTLY THE HOLLAND TO SOUTH HAVEN REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED PATTERN
CHANGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR AFFECTING THE AREA ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING WITH REGARDS TO
THE LONG TERM.

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ERN
U.S. WILL BE ENCOMPASSED BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE NRN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW
AND DEEP COLD AIR TO BE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR HIGHER
INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY COMING OVER
THE LAKES. THERE LOOK TO BE SOME STRONG AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE AREAS THAT WILL BE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE THE NW AND SW CORNERS OF THE CWFA WITH LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW EXPECTED.

SOME REPRIEVE CAN BE EXPECTED BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH REGARDS TO
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BRIEFLY LIFT
OUT AND ALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN A BIT AS A RESULT.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN...SO SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD NOT TOTALLY
DISSIPATE.

WE WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COME IN THEN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SURGE WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR THAN MID WEEK WITH
H850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE MID 20S C. WE WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE AS MUCH LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER PATTERN SET
UP A BIT DIFFERENT. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CANADA...SFC RIDGING WILL SITUATE ITSELF SUCH THAT WE WILL SEE A N-
NE FLOW. THIS WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT WEST OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON. WE WILL JUST SEE ARCTIC AIR WITH SOME POTENTIAL SUNSHINE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. WILL GO
PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBYS IN THE TAFS... BUT A SMALL RISK OF IFR
TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS DOES EXIST BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...
ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO THE NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH SCATTERED LIGHT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WIND WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM
THIS EVENING. AFTER A LULL IN THE WINDS TONIGHT...THEY WILL START
TO INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE BUILDING WAVES. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 080457
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
SLOW DOWN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS A COLDER AIRMASS ACCOMPANIES THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
SUPPORT IMPACTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TO START...MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER FOR MONDAY. WITH FORECASTED
HIGHS ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING...IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT ANY IMPACTS
FROM FALLING SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL. TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENING
COMMUTE...IT MAY GET CLOSE TO FREEZING...BUT THAT WILL MORE LIKELY
HAPPEN AFTER 00Z TUE. GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT.

IT LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE MORNING COMMUTE BEGINS FOR
TUESDAY...WE WILL BE SEEING IMPACTS. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORS THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 131. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SUPPORTS THE REGION SOUTH OF HOLLAND FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. ONCE THEY DEVELOP...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFT IN THE DGZ ACTUALLY INCREASES ALONG THE
LAKESHORE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS WE WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE IMPACTS
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW END
RISK FOR HIGH IMPACTS...MOSTLY THE HOLLAND TO SOUTH HAVEN REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED PATTERN
CHANGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR AFFECTING THE AREA ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING WITH REGARDS TO
THE LONG TERM.

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ERN
U.S. WILL BE ENCOMPASSED BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE NRN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW
AND DEEP COLD AIR TO BE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR HIGHER
INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY COMING OVER
THE LAKES. THERE LOOK TO BE SOME STRONG AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE AREAS THAT WILL BE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE THE NW AND SW CORNERS OF THE CWFA WITH LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW EXPECTED.

SOME REPRIEVE CAN BE EXPECTED BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH REGARDS TO
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BRIEFLY LIFT
OUT AND ALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN A BIT AS A RESULT.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN...SO SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD NOT TOTALLY
DISSIPATE.

WE WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COME IN THEN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SURGE WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR THAN MID WEEK WITH
H850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE MID 20S C. WE WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE AS MUCH LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER PATTERN SET
UP A BIT DIFFERENT. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CANADA...SFC RIDGING WILL SITUATE ITSELF SUCH THAT WE WILL SEE A N-
NE FLOW. THIS WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT WEST OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON. WE WILL JUST SEE ARCTIC AIR WITH SOME POTENTIAL SUNSHINE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. WILL GO
PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBYS IN THE TAFS... BUT A SMALL RISK OF IFR
TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS DOES EXIST BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...
ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO THE NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH SCATTERED LIGHT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WIND WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM
THIS EVENING. AFTER A LULL IN THE WINDS TONIGHT...THEY WILL START
TO INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE BUILDING WAVES. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 080457
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
SLOW DOWN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS A COLDER AIRMASS ACCOMPANIES THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
SUPPORT IMPACTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TO START...MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER FOR MONDAY. WITH FORECASTED
HIGHS ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING...IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT ANY IMPACTS
FROM FALLING SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL. TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENING
COMMUTE...IT MAY GET CLOSE TO FREEZING...BUT THAT WILL MORE LIKELY
HAPPEN AFTER 00Z TUE. GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT.

IT LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE MORNING COMMUTE BEGINS FOR
TUESDAY...WE WILL BE SEEING IMPACTS. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORS THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 131. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SUPPORTS THE REGION SOUTH OF HOLLAND FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. ONCE THEY DEVELOP...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFT IN THE DGZ ACTUALLY INCREASES ALONG THE
LAKESHORE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS WE WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE IMPACTS
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW END
RISK FOR HIGH IMPACTS...MOSTLY THE HOLLAND TO SOUTH HAVEN REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED PATTERN
CHANGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR AFFECTING THE AREA ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING WITH REGARDS TO
THE LONG TERM.

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ERN
U.S. WILL BE ENCOMPASSED BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE NRN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW
AND DEEP COLD AIR TO BE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR HIGHER
INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY COMING OVER
THE LAKES. THERE LOOK TO BE SOME STRONG AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE AREAS THAT WILL BE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE THE NW AND SW CORNERS OF THE CWFA WITH LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW EXPECTED.

SOME REPRIEVE CAN BE EXPECTED BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH REGARDS TO
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BRIEFLY LIFT
OUT AND ALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN A BIT AS A RESULT.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN...SO SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD NOT TOTALLY
DISSIPATE.

WE WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COME IN THEN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SURGE WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR THAN MID WEEK WITH
H850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE MID 20S C. WE WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE AS MUCH LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER PATTERN SET
UP A BIT DIFFERENT. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CANADA...SFC RIDGING WILL SITUATE ITSELF SUCH THAT WE WILL SEE A N-
NE FLOW. THIS WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT WEST OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON. WE WILL JUST SEE ARCTIC AIR WITH SOME POTENTIAL SUNSHINE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. WILL GO
PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBYS IN THE TAFS... BUT A SMALL RISK OF IFR
TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS DOES EXIST BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...
ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO THE NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH SCATTERED LIGHT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WIND WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM
THIS EVENING. AFTER A LULL IN THE WINDS TONIGHT...THEY WILL START
TO INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE BUILDING WAVES. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 080457
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
SLOW DOWN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS A COLDER AIRMASS ACCOMPANIES THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
SUPPORT IMPACTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TO START...MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER FOR MONDAY. WITH FORECASTED
HIGHS ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING...IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT ANY IMPACTS
FROM FALLING SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL. TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENING
COMMUTE...IT MAY GET CLOSE TO FREEZING...BUT THAT WILL MORE LIKELY
HAPPEN AFTER 00Z TUE. GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT.

IT LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE MORNING COMMUTE BEGINS FOR
TUESDAY...WE WILL BE SEEING IMPACTS. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORS THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 131. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SUPPORTS THE REGION SOUTH OF HOLLAND FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. ONCE THEY DEVELOP...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFT IN THE DGZ ACTUALLY INCREASES ALONG THE
LAKESHORE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS WE WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE IMPACTS
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW END
RISK FOR HIGH IMPACTS...MOSTLY THE HOLLAND TO SOUTH HAVEN REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED PATTERN
CHANGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR AFFECTING THE AREA ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING WITH REGARDS TO
THE LONG TERM.

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ERN
U.S. WILL BE ENCOMPASSED BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE NRN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW
AND DEEP COLD AIR TO BE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR HIGHER
INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY COMING OVER
THE LAKES. THERE LOOK TO BE SOME STRONG AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE AREAS THAT WILL BE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE THE NW AND SW CORNERS OF THE CWFA WITH LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW EXPECTED.

SOME REPRIEVE CAN BE EXPECTED BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH REGARDS TO
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BRIEFLY LIFT
OUT AND ALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN A BIT AS A RESULT.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN...SO SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD NOT TOTALLY
DISSIPATE.

WE WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COME IN THEN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SURGE WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR THAN MID WEEK WITH
H850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE MID 20S C. WE WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE AS MUCH LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER PATTERN SET
UP A BIT DIFFERENT. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CANADA...SFC RIDGING WILL SITUATE ITSELF SUCH THAT WE WILL SEE A N-
NE FLOW. THIS WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT WEST OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON. WE WILL JUST SEE ARCTIC AIR WITH SOME POTENTIAL SUNSHINE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. WILL GO
PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBYS IN THE TAFS... BUT A SMALL RISK OF IFR
TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS DOES EXIST BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...
ESPECIALLY FROM GRR TO THE NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH SCATTERED LIGHT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WIND WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM
THIS EVENING. AFTER A LULL IN THE WINDS TONIGHT...THEY WILL START
TO INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE BUILDING WAVES. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KDTX 080455
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.AVIATION...

AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL WORK THROUGH TERMINALS EARLY
IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MBS/FNT. SSW FLOW WILL VEER TO SW ON
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE A DISTURBANCE PIVOTS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL STRATUS...LOWER VFR/MVFR. COLDER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY
FUNNEL INTO AREA MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ON W/WNW FLOW
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF -SHRASNS AND THEN JUST -SHSNS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS TOO
MUCH.

AT DTW...GENERALLY EXPECT CIGS ABOVE 5KFT OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT AREA
OF STRATUS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE LIFTS NORTH OF TERMINALS.
ADDITIONAL MVFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING WITH AT
LEAST BKN CIGS HOVERING IN THE 3000-5000 FOOT RANGE PERSISTING THRU
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DISCUSSION...

THE AMPLIFICATION AND EVENTUAL BROADENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IS RESULTING IN A VERY CHALLENGING
FORECAST FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE INTEGRITY AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE HARBORED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.

DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL ABSOLUTE VORTICITY CENTERS ARE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
DATA SUPPORTS THE LEAD EDGE OR GRADIENT OF THE PARENT PV ANOMALY TO
PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TO IMPINGE UPON WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF A
RELATIVELY MESSY JET EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHERE A
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ELEMENT WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC IN CURVATURE AND BECOME PHASED WITHIN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE MUCH MORE DOMINANT NE U.S. JET BRANCH. THE NET RESULT
IS FOR SOME DECENT TO STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. WHAT IS LIKELY MORE FAVORABLE
FROM A DYNAMICAL STANDPOINT IS THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT
WILL BECOME SHARPER THIS EVENING ALONG THE PV GRADIENT WHERE FORCING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO THE MASS ADJUSTMENT CAUSED BY THE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD ARRIVAL. NUMERICAL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (WARM SFC TEMPERATURES) OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 01-04Z. PRETTY INCONSEQUENTIAL...WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF OR LESS.

THE LOW PREDICTABILITY THEN BEGINS IN EARNEST ALREADY LATE TONIGHT
AS INTRA-INTER MODEL CONTINUITY HAS BEEN EXTREMELY POOR WITH REGARDS
TO AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL SATURATE/DEVELOP OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR DETROIT RIVER/LAKE
ST CLAIR. EARLIER DETERMINISTIC AND HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOWED AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE 10-
12Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND
OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN. THE NEW 07.12Z ITERATIONS OF
THESE SAME MODELS ARRIVED AND BACKED WAY OFF. PREFERENCE SIDES WITH
A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIME FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS...1. THERE IS NO LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE DRIVING
ADVECTION...2. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WHILE BEING AIDED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT IS STILL LIKELY DEPENDENT ON A GOOD
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION THIS EVENING. THE NAM
IS SHOWING A MINIMUM CORRIDOR OF 850-700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
DIRECTLY IN PLACE AT 12Z MONDAY.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW SUPPORT THE CORRIDOR OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATIONPROGRESSING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE MONDAY
PERIOD SETTING UP WHAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS.
WHILE A CLASSIC MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT IS NOT RESOLVED FOR
MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL DATA SUPPORTS NEUTRAL
TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. CARRYING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN MANY AREAS. THE ONE ITEM TO WATCH FOR
IS SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT/GRADIENT FEATURE THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
CWA/SAGINAW VALLEY BETWEEN 21- 24Z MONDAY. NO TANGIBLE HEIGHT
RISES WILL SUPPORT VERY LITTLE COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY.
PREFERENCE SIDES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 DEGREES.

THE MODEL TREND TODAY HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHWARD SOLUTION WITH
THE MAIN VORTICITY ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS BY TUESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS POSSIBLY MORE OF AN EASTWARD LEAK TO THE SURFACE
LOW/REFLECTION THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER ADVERTISED. THE BEST CVA WOULD
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD TAKE THE MAIN DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN IS MORE IN THE WAY OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS A DRY ONE
FOR THE AREA. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -20C 850MB
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE ITEM OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS A
POTENTIAL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SHOVEL-ABLE SNOWS OVER PORTIONS OF THE THUMB...PRIMARILY ON
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON SO FAR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z GFS/GEFS
MEAN/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT -15 TO -20C 850 MB TEMPS WED/THU.
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN COLDER AIR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARCTIC CLOSED
LOW SWEEPING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR AS IT LOOKS TO BE A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE
HEART OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST US...BUT EVEN A GLANCING
BLOW WOULD LIKELY PUT 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -20 TO -25C WHICH WOULD BE
THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS WINTER. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY ON A
DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER...DRIER NW FLOW
SETS UP.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE AS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...ALONG WITH SNOW
SQUALLS...AS MUCH COLDER FILTERS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 080455
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.AVIATION...

AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL WORK THROUGH TERMINALS EARLY
IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MBS/FNT. SSW FLOW WILL VEER TO SW ON
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE A DISTURBANCE PIVOTS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL STRATUS...LOWER VFR/MVFR. COLDER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY
FUNNEL INTO AREA MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ON W/WNW FLOW
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF -SHRASNS AND THEN JUST -SHSNS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS TOO
MUCH.

AT DTW...GENERALLY EXPECT CIGS ABOVE 5KFT OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT AREA
OF STRATUS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE LIFTS NORTH OF TERMINALS.
ADDITIONAL MVFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING WITH AT
LEAST BKN CIGS HOVERING IN THE 3000-5000 FOOT RANGE PERSISTING THRU
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DISCUSSION...

THE AMPLIFICATION AND EVENTUAL BROADENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IS RESULTING IN A VERY CHALLENGING
FORECAST FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE INTEGRITY AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE HARBORED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.

DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL ABSOLUTE VORTICITY CENTERS ARE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
DATA SUPPORTS THE LEAD EDGE OR GRADIENT OF THE PARENT PV ANOMALY TO
PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TO IMPINGE UPON WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF A
RELATIVELY MESSY JET EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHERE A
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ELEMENT WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC IN CURVATURE AND BECOME PHASED WITHIN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE MUCH MORE DOMINANT NE U.S. JET BRANCH. THE NET RESULT
IS FOR SOME DECENT TO STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. WHAT IS LIKELY MORE FAVORABLE
FROM A DYNAMICAL STANDPOINT IS THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT
WILL BECOME SHARPER THIS EVENING ALONG THE PV GRADIENT WHERE FORCING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO THE MASS ADJUSTMENT CAUSED BY THE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD ARRIVAL. NUMERICAL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (WARM SFC TEMPERATURES) OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 01-04Z. PRETTY INCONSEQUENTIAL...WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF OR LESS.

THE LOW PREDICTABILITY THEN BEGINS IN EARNEST ALREADY LATE TONIGHT
AS INTRA-INTER MODEL CONTINUITY HAS BEEN EXTREMELY POOR WITH REGARDS
TO AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL SATURATE/DEVELOP OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR DETROIT RIVER/LAKE
ST CLAIR. EARLIER DETERMINISTIC AND HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOWED AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE 10-
12Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND
OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN. THE NEW 07.12Z ITERATIONS OF
THESE SAME MODELS ARRIVED AND BACKED WAY OFF. PREFERENCE SIDES WITH
A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIME FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS...1. THERE IS NO LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE DRIVING
ADVECTION...2. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WHILE BEING AIDED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT IS STILL LIKELY DEPENDENT ON A GOOD
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION THIS EVENING. THE NAM
IS SHOWING A MINIMUM CORRIDOR OF 850-700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
DIRECTLY IN PLACE AT 12Z MONDAY.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW SUPPORT THE CORRIDOR OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATIONPROGRESSING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE MONDAY
PERIOD SETTING UP WHAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS.
WHILE A CLASSIC MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT IS NOT RESOLVED FOR
MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL DATA SUPPORTS NEUTRAL
TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. CARRYING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN MANY AREAS. THE ONE ITEM TO WATCH FOR
IS SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT/GRADIENT FEATURE THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
CWA/SAGINAW VALLEY BETWEEN 21- 24Z MONDAY. NO TANGIBLE HEIGHT
RISES WILL SUPPORT VERY LITTLE COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY.
PREFERENCE SIDES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 DEGREES.

THE MODEL TREND TODAY HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHWARD SOLUTION WITH
THE MAIN VORTICITY ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS BY TUESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS POSSIBLY MORE OF AN EASTWARD LEAK TO THE SURFACE
LOW/REFLECTION THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER ADVERTISED. THE BEST CVA WOULD
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD TAKE THE MAIN DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN IS MORE IN THE WAY OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS A DRY ONE
FOR THE AREA. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -20C 850MB
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE ITEM OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS A
POTENTIAL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SHOVEL-ABLE SNOWS OVER PORTIONS OF THE THUMB...PRIMARILY ON
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON SO FAR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z GFS/GEFS
MEAN/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT -15 TO -20C 850 MB TEMPS WED/THU.
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN COLDER AIR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARCTIC CLOSED
LOW SWEEPING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR AS IT LOOKS TO BE A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE
HEART OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST US...BUT EVEN A GLANCING
BLOW WOULD LIKELY PUT 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -20 TO -25C WHICH WOULD BE
THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS WINTER. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY ON A
DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER...DRIER NW FLOW
SETS UP.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE AS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...ALONG WITH SNOW
SQUALLS...AS MUCH COLDER FILTERS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 080455
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.AVIATION...

AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL WORK THROUGH TERMINALS EARLY
IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MBS/FNT. SSW FLOW WILL VEER TO SW ON
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE A DISTURBANCE PIVOTS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL STRATUS...LOWER VFR/MVFR. COLDER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY
FUNNEL INTO AREA MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ON W/WNW FLOW
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF -SHRASNS AND THEN JUST -SHSNS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS TOO
MUCH.

AT DTW...GENERALLY EXPECT CIGS ABOVE 5KFT OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT AREA
OF STRATUS IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE LIFTS NORTH OF TERMINALS.
ADDITIONAL MVFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING WITH AT
LEAST BKN CIGS HOVERING IN THE 3000-5000 FOOT RANGE PERSISTING THRU
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DISCUSSION...

THE AMPLIFICATION AND EVENTUAL BROADENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IS RESULTING IN A VERY CHALLENGING
FORECAST FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE INTEGRITY AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE HARBORED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.

DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL ABSOLUTE VORTICITY CENTERS ARE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
DATA SUPPORTS THE LEAD EDGE OR GRADIENT OF THE PARENT PV ANOMALY TO
PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TO IMPINGE UPON WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF A
RELATIVELY MESSY JET EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHERE A
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ELEMENT WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC IN CURVATURE AND BECOME PHASED WITHIN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE MUCH MORE DOMINANT NE U.S. JET BRANCH. THE NET RESULT
IS FOR SOME DECENT TO STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. WHAT IS LIKELY MORE FAVORABLE
FROM A DYNAMICAL STANDPOINT IS THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT
WILL BECOME SHARPER THIS EVENING ALONG THE PV GRADIENT WHERE FORCING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO THE MASS ADJUSTMENT CAUSED BY THE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD ARRIVAL. NUMERICAL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (WARM SFC TEMPERATURES) OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 01-04Z. PRETTY INCONSEQUENTIAL...WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF OR LESS.

THE LOW PREDICTABILITY THEN BEGINS IN EARNEST ALREADY LATE TONIGHT
AS INTRA-INTER MODEL CONTINUITY HAS BEEN EXTREMELY POOR WITH REGARDS
TO AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL SATURATE/DEVELOP OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR DETROIT RIVER/LAKE
ST CLAIR. EARLIER DETERMINISTIC AND HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOWED AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE 10-
12Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND
OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN. THE NEW 07.12Z ITERATIONS OF
THESE SAME MODELS ARRIVED AND BACKED WAY OFF. PREFERENCE SIDES WITH
A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIME FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS...1. THERE IS NO LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE DRIVING
ADVECTION...2. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WHILE BEING AIDED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT IS STILL LIKELY DEPENDENT ON A GOOD
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION THIS EVENING. THE NAM
IS SHOWING A MINIMUM CORRIDOR OF 850-700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
DIRECTLY IN PLACE AT 12Z MONDAY.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW SUPPORT THE CORRIDOR OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATIONPROGRESSING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE MONDAY
PERIOD SETTING UP WHAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS.
WHILE A CLASSIC MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT IS NOT RESOLVED FOR
MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL DATA SUPPORTS NEUTRAL
TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. CARRYING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN MANY AREAS. THE ONE ITEM TO WATCH FOR
IS SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT/GRADIENT FEATURE THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
CWA/SAGINAW VALLEY BETWEEN 21- 24Z MONDAY. NO TANGIBLE HEIGHT
RISES WILL SUPPORT VERY LITTLE COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY.
PREFERENCE SIDES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 DEGREES.

THE MODEL TREND TODAY HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHWARD SOLUTION WITH
THE MAIN VORTICITY ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS BY TUESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS POSSIBLY MORE OF AN EASTWARD LEAK TO THE SURFACE
LOW/REFLECTION THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER ADVERTISED. THE BEST CVA WOULD
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD TAKE THE MAIN DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN IS MORE IN THE WAY OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS A DRY ONE
FOR THE AREA. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -20C 850MB
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE ITEM OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS A
POTENTIAL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SHOVEL-ABLE SNOWS OVER PORTIONS OF THE THUMB...PRIMARILY ON
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON SO FAR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z GFS/GEFS
MEAN/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT -15 TO -20C 850 MB TEMPS WED/THU.
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN COLDER AIR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARCTIC CLOSED
LOW SWEEPING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR AS IT LOOKS TO BE A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE
HEART OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST US...BUT EVEN A GLANCING
BLOW WOULD LIKELY PUT 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -20 TO -25C WHICH WOULD BE
THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS WINTER. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY ON A
DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER...DRIER NW FLOW
SETS UP.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE AS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...ALONG WITH SNOW
SQUALLS...AS MUCH COLDER FILTERS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 080418
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1118 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

AFTER A BIT OF CLEARING/THINNING OF THE SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK IN PRETTY QUICKLY. A WEAK VORT
MAX WAS RIDING UP NE LOWER/LAKE HURON AND HAS RESULTED IN SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW (ONLY OB SHOWING PRECIP WAS RAIN AT
OSCODA). THERE WAS ANOTHER APPARENT VORT MAX ROLLING UP INTO
CENTRAL UPPER/NE WISCONSIN WHICH WAS DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES.

THE NE LOWER LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL DEPART OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LIKELY TO NOT IMPACT WESTERN
CHIP/MACK...BUT WILL INDEED BE MONITORING RADAR. EITHER
WAY...LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT.

THE MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER WAS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. SEEING THE MUCH
SLOWER LOWERING OF CLOUDS THAT WAS ANTICIPATED...DID AT LEAST PUSH
BACK THE CHANCES FOR SEEING THIS LIGHT PRECIP. THINK IT`S GONNA
TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS TO LOWER ENOUGH FOR REDUCED VSBYS IN
DRIZZLE. SFC TEMP TRENDS SUGGEST MORE LOCATIONS WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE FIRST DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED (4AM-7AM).

STILL OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND IT`S
IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN BLACK ICE POTENTIAL IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS.

NORTHERN MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN "NO MANS LAND" WEATHERWISE TONIGHT...AS
WE ARE EFFECTIVELY DRY SLOTTED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD BUT
ALL OF THE FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST.  OF COURSE THIS IS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THERE ARE STILL WEATHER CONCERNS.  WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER A NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY INCREASE
MOISTURE DEPTH A BIT OVERNIGHT TOWARD 3-4K IN NORTHERN
LOWER...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM.  THIS SCENARIO
CERTAINLY RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS LIMITED AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WHICH MAY LIMIT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.  WILL TAKE LOW TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO EARLY AFTERNOON SFC
DWPTS...WHICH PUTS MANY AREAS WITHIN 1-2 DEGF OF FREEZING /30-34
DEGF/.  WILL INCLUDE A FREEZING DRIZZLE REFERENCE FOR LATER TONIGHT
OVER INTERIOR AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY END UP SEEING MORE STRATUS/FOG
THAN DRIZZLE.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF SOME BLACK ICE
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SATURATED LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE/PAVEMENT TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING WITH FOG.  WILL HANDLE THIS POTENTIAL THREAT WITH A
REFERENCE IN THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.

OVER EASTERN UPPER...MOISTURE WILL EXTEND CLOSER TO THE -10C
ISOTHERM AND SOME LIGHT SNOW /SNIZZLE?/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.  POCKETS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

WILL HANDLE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/BLACK ICE WITH A
MENTION IN THE HWO AS WELL AS THE WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.   THIS MAY
END UP BEING "SPS WORTHY" OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE
ON THAT AS THINGS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...BECOMING MUCH COLDER WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

BUSY PERIOD...WITH AN ABRUPT SWITCH FROM MILD TO VERY COLD WX. LOW
PRESSURE STARTS MONDAY MORNING OVER OUR HEADS...AND WILL MOVE
GRADUALLY EAST THRU THE PERIOD...BEFORE BEING LOST IN THE LARGER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. 500MB CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OVERHEAD MON-TUE...BEFORE IT MINORS OUT AND THE HEART OF THE UPPER
TROF MOVES EAST. HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES INTO TUE...WITH A TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE
EFFECT AFTER THAT. PRECIP/TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

MONDAY...NEARLY STACKED LOW WILL HOVER OVER LOWER MI. WE REMAIN
BENEATH THE DECAYING DRY SLOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY...NOTING THAT IN
GENERAL THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED WITH TIME. THAT LEAVES
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION. THERE WILL
BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE BELOW 800-850MB...AND SOME CIRRUS AND
HIGHER MID CLOUDS WELL ABOVE 700MB...BUT DRY AIR IN BETWEEN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS TO -6 TO -10C...COLDER NORTH THAN SOUTH. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF A MISTY/DRIZZLY PATTERN...PERHAPS MIXED
WITH SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
PLACES MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME -FZDZ IS POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS
IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 30S.

MON NIGHT-TUE...500MB LOW FILLS A BIT AS IT DRIFTS FROM SW LOWER MI
TO NORTHERN OH. REMNANT SURFACE LOW DRIFTS EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS LAKE HURON. THIS ALLOWS WHAT/S LEFT OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
TO WRAP BACK INTO NORTHERN MI. IT ALSO ALLOWS COLD AIR TO BLEED BACK
INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. 805MB TEMPS WILL LOWER TO THE MID/UPPER MINUS TEENS IN NW
LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK BY LATE TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A VERY
STEADY NNW 1000-850MB FETCH DURING THIS PERIOD. NOT QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE DEFINITELY GET
THERE TUE...AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SN/SHSN WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN NW
LOWER MI. ACCUMULATING SNOW (AND SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING ISSUES)
SHOULD REALLY START TO EMERGE TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS 20S. MAX TEMPS 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

TUE NIGHT-WED...COLD AIR GETS MORE SERIOUS ABOUT FLOODING THE
REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE EASTERN LAKES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BE EXITING TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN LESS PRECIP COVERAGE WITH TIME
OUTSIDE THE NNW-FLOW SNOWBELTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BELOW -20C BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THAT IS GETTING COLD ENOUGH TO START TO HINDER
DENDRITIC GROWTH AND SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELTS...
ESPECIALLY NW LOWER MI. MIN TEMPS 5 TO 15F. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF LIKELY HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SUPPORT FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...JUST NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS MOISTURE
THINS OUT A BIT AND OMEGA GETS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE DGZ. THE BIG
STORY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD. FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...HIGHS WILL FIGHT TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS...BUT THE COLDEST
AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND HIGHS COULD STAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR SOME COLD NIGHTS...AND IF ANY
CLEARING TAKES PLACE TEMPS COULD REALLY DROP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

SKIES ARE VFR...AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF MVFR DEVELOPMENT
EVEN FURTHER. STILL BELIEVE THAT WILL OCCUR AS THERE IS SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT THAT OUGHT TO MORE EFFICIENTLY COOL THE BL RESULTING IN
LOWER CIGS. RELUCTANTLY KEPT MVFR THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THE BL MAY NOT BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR IFR
CIGS...MUCH LESS AREAS OF DRIZZLE. COULD HOWEVER SEE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THROUGH THE COLUMN. CHANCE IS STILL
LOW RIGHT NOW...AND WILL STILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.

WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE WEAK.  A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK...WITH COLDER AIR SURGING
BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KMQT 080340
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DUE TO LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND LLVL SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING LO PRES OVER WCENTRAL UPR MI THAT WL IMPACT
CENTRAL UPR MI...REMOVED MENTION OF DRIZZLE FM THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A MOIST AND UPSLOPE E FLOW WL BRING LIFR/EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS TO
CMX THIS EVNG. AS A MOIST...CYC NNW FLOW DVLPS OVER WRN UPR MI
DURING THE EVNG/EARLY MRNG IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SFC LO PRES...A
STEADY -SN WL DVLP FIRST AT IWD AND THEN AT CMX JUST AFTER MIDNGT...
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF
THE FCST PERIOD UNDER LINGERING DEEP MSTR/A COLD NNW FLOW THAT
RESULTS IN PERSISTENT LES. AT SAW...EXPECT MVFR WX TO TRANSITION TO
IFR BY LATE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FOR A TIME
ON MON MRNG DURING A PERIOD OF STEADY -SN. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTN AS THE DEEPER MSTR/STEADY SN EXITS FOR A
TIME...VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 080215
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
915 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

AFTER A BIT OF CLEARING/THINNING OF THE SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK IN PRETTY QUICKLY. A WEAK VORT
MAX WAS RIDING UP NE LOWER/LAKE HURON AND HAS RESULTED IN SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW (ONLY OB SHOWING PRECIP WAS RAIN AT
OSCODA). THERE WAS ANOTHER APPARENT VORT MAX ROLLING UP INTO
CENTRAL UPPER/NE WISCONSIN WHICH WAS DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES.

THE NE LOWER LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL DEPART OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LIKELY TO NOT IMPACT WESTERN
CHIP/MACK...BUT WILL INDEED BE MONITORING RADAR. EITHER
WAY...LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT.

THE MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER WAS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. SEEING THE MUCH
SLOWER LOWERING OF CLOUDS THAT WAS ANTICIPATED...DID AT LEAST PUSH
BACK THE CHANCES FOR SEEING THIS LIGHT PRECIP. THINK IT`S GONNA
TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS TO LOWER ENOUGH FOR REDUCED VSBYS IN
DRIZZLE. SFC TEMP TRENDS SUGGEST MORE LOCATIONS WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE FIRST DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED (4AM-7AM).

STILL OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND IT`S
IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN BLACK ICE POTENTIAL IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS.

NORTHERN MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN "NO MANS LAND" WEATHERWISE TONIGHT...AS
WE ARE EFFECTIVELY DRY SLOTTED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD BUT
ALL OF THE FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST.  OF COURSE THIS IS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THERE ARE STILL WEATHER CONCERNS.  WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER A NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY INCREASE
MOISTURE DEPTH A BIT OVERNIGHT TOWARD 3-4K IN NORTHERN
LOWER...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM.  THIS SCENARIO
CERTAINLY RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS LIMITED AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WHICH MAY LIMIT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.  WILL TAKE LOW TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO EARLY AFTERNOON SFC
DWPTS...WHICH PUTS MANY AREAS WITHIN 1-2 DEGF OF FREEZING /30-34
DEGF/.  WILL INCLUDE A FREEZING DRIZZLE REFERENCE FOR LATER TONIGHT
OVER INTERIOR AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY END UP SEEING MORE STRATUS/FOG
THAN DRIZZLE.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF SOME BLACK ICE
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SATURATED LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE/PAVEMENT TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING WITH FOG.  WILL HANDLE THIS POTENTIAL THREAT WITH A
REFERENCE IN THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.

OVER EASTERN UPPER...MOISTURE WILL EXTEND CLOSER TO THE -10C
ISOTHERM AND SOME LIGHT SNOW /SNIZZLE?/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.  POCKETS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

WILL HANDLE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/BLACK ICE WITH A
MENTION IN THE HWO AS WELL AS THE WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.   THIS MAY
END UP BEING "SPS WORTHY" OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE
ON THAT AS THINGS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...BECOMING MUCH COLDER WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

BUSY PERIOD...WITH AN ABRUPT SWITCH FROM MILD TO VERY COLD WX. LOW
PRESSURE STARTS MONDAY MORNING OVER OUR HEADS...AND WILL MOVE
GRADUALLY EAST THRU THE PERIOD...BEFORE BEING LOST IN THE LARGER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. 500MB CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OVERHEAD MON-TUE...BEFORE IT MINORS OUT AND THE HEART OF THE UPPER
TROF MOVES EAST. HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES INTO TUE...WITH A TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE
EFFECT AFTER THAT. PRECIP/TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

MONDAY...NEARLY STACKED LOW WILL HOVER OVER LOWER MI. WE REMAIN
BENEATH THE DECAYING DRY SLOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY...NOTING THAT IN
GENERAL THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED WITH TIME. THAT LEAVES
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION. THERE WILL
BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE BELOW 800-850MB...AND SOME CIRRUS AND
HIGHER MID CLOUDS WELL ABOVE 700MB...BUT DRY AIR IN BETWEEN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS TO -6 TO -10C...COLDER NORTH THAN SOUTH. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF A MISTY/DRIZZLY PATTERN...PERHAPS MIXED
WITH SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
PLACES MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME -FZDZ IS POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS
IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 30S.

MON NIGHT-TUE...500MB LOW FILLS A BIT AS IT DRIFTS FROM SW LOWER MI
TO NORTHERN OH. REMNANT SURFACE LOW DRIFTS EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS LAKE HURON. THIS ALLOWS WHAT/S LEFT OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
TO WRAP BACK INTO NORTHERN MI. IT ALSO ALLOWS COLD AIR TO BLEED BACK
INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. 805MB TEMPS WILL LOWER TO THE MID/UPPER MINUS TEENS IN NW
LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK BY LATE TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A VERY
STEADY NNW 1000-850MB FETCH DURING THIS PERIOD. NOT QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE DEFINITELY GET
THERE TUE...AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SN/SHSN WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN NW
LOWER MI. ACCUMULATING SNOW (AND SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING ISSUES)
SHOULD REALLY START TO EMERGE TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS 20S. MAX TEMPS 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

TUE NIGHT-WED...COLD AIR GETS MORE SERIOUS ABOUT FLOODING THE
REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE EASTERN LAKES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BE EXITING TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN LESS PRECIP COVERAGE WITH TIME
OUTSIDE THE NNW-FLOW SNOWBELTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BELOW -20C BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THAT IS GETTING COLD ENOUGH TO START TO HINDER
DENDRITIC GROWTH AND SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELTS...
ESPECIALLY NW LOWER MI. MIN TEMPS 5 TO 15F. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF LIKELY HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SUPPORT FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...JUST NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS MOISTURE
THINS OUT A BIT AND OMEGA GETS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE DGZ. THE BIG
STORY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD. FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...HIGHS WILL FIGHT TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS...BUT THE COLDEST
AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND HIGHS COULD STAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR SOME COLD NIGHTS...AND IF ANY
CLEARING TAKES PLACE TEMPS COULD REALLY DROP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN UNEXPECTED CLEARING/THINNING OF THE SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAS
LED TO DELAYING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR...AND ULTIMATELY IFR
CIGS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. STILL SEE SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH BL COOLING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DID RELUCTANTLY TAKE OUT MENTION OF DRIZZLE...AS THE
VERTICAL PROFILE DOESN`T APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR IT. DO BELIEVE THAT
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ONLY INCREASES WITH TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CHANCE
RIGHT NOW SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.

WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE WEAK.  A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK...WITH COLDER AIR SURGING
BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 080029
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
729 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN BLACK ICE POTENTIAL IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS.

NORTHERN MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN "NO MANS LAND" WEATHERWISE TONIGHT...AS
WE ARE EFFECTIVELY DRY SLOTTED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD BUT
ALL OF THE FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST.  OF COURSE THIS IS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THERE ARE STILL WEATHER CONCERNS.  WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER A NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY INCREASE
MOISTURE DEPTH A BIT OVERNIGHT TOWARD 3-4K IN NORTHERN
LOWER...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM.  THIS SCENARIO
CERTAINLY RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS LIMITED AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WHICH MAY LIMIT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.  WILL TAKE LOW TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO EARLY AFTERNOON SFC
DWPTS...WHICH PUTS MANY AREAS WITHIN 1-2 DEGF OF FREEZING /30-34
DEGF/.  WILL INCLUDE A FREEZING DRIZZLE REFERENCE FOR LATER TONIGHT
OVER INTERIOR AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY END UP SEEING MORE STRATUS/FOG
THAN DRIZZLE.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF SOME BLACK ICE
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SATURATED LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE/PAVEMENT TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING WITH FOG.  WILL HANDLE THIS POTENTIAL THREAT WITH A
REFERENCE IN THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.

OVER EASTERN UPPER...MOISTURE WILL EXTEND CLOSER TO THE -10C
ISOTHERM AND SOME LIGHT SNOW /SNIZZLE?/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.  POCKETS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

WILL HANDLE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/BLACK ICE WITH A
MENTION IN THE HWO AS WELL AS THE WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.   THIS MAY
END UP BEING "SPS WORTHY" OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE
ON THAT AS THINGS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...BECOMING MUCH COLDER WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

BUSY PERIOD...WITH AN ABRUPT SWITCH FROM MILD TO VERY COLD WX. LOW
PRESSURE STARTS MONDAY MORNING OVER OUR HEADS...AND WILL MOVE
GRADUALLY EAST THRU THE PERIOD...BEFORE BEING LOST IN THE LARGER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. 500MB CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OVERHEAD MON-TUE...BEFORE IT MINORS OUT AND THE HEART OF THE UPPER
TROF MOVES EAST. HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES INTO TUE...WITH A TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE
EFFECT AFTER THAT. PRECIP/TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

MONDAY...NEARLY STACKED LOW WILL HOVER OVER LOWER MI. WE REMAIN
BENEATH THE DECAYING DRY SLOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY...NOTING THAT IN
GENERAL THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED WITH TIME. THAT LEAVES
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION. THERE WILL
BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE BELOW 800-850MB...AND SOME CIRRUS AND
HIGHER MID CLOUDS WELL ABOVE 700MB...BUT DRY AIR IN BETWEEN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS TO -6 TO -10C...COLDER NORTH THAN SOUTH. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF A MISTY/DRIZZLY PATTERN...PERHAPS MIXED
WITH SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
PLACES MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME -FZDZ IS POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS
IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 30S.

MON NIGHT-TUE...500MB LOW FILLS A BIT AS IT DRIFTS FROM SW LOWER MI
TO NORTHERN OH. REMNANT SURFACE LOW DRIFTS EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS LAKE HURON. THIS ALLOWS WHAT/S LEFT OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
TO WRAP BACK INTO NORTHERN MI. IT ALSO ALLOWS COLD AIR TO BLEED BACK
INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. 805MB TEMPS WILL LOWER TO THE MID/UPPER MINUS TEENS IN NW
LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK BY LATE TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A VERY
STEADY NNW 1000-850MB FETCH DURING THIS PERIOD. NOT QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE DEFINITELY GET
THERE TUE...AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SN/SHSN WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN NW
LOWER MI. ACCUMULATING SNOW (AND SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING ISSUES)
SHOULD REALLY START TO EMERGE TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS 20S. MAX TEMPS 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

TUE NIGHT-WED...COLD AIR GETS MORE SERIOUS ABOUT FLOODING THE
REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE EASTERN LAKES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BE EXITING TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN LESS PRECIP COVERAGE WITH TIME
OUTSIDE THE NNW-FLOW SNOWBELTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BELOW -20C BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THAT IS GETTING COLD ENOUGH TO START TO HINDER
DENDRITIC GROWTH AND SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELTS...
ESPECIALLY NW LOWER MI. MIN TEMPS 5 TO 15F. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF LIKELY HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SUPPORT FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...JUST NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS MOISTURE
THINS OUT A BIT AND OMEGA GETS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE DGZ. THE BIG
STORY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD. FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...HIGHS WILL FIGHT TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS...BUT THE COLDEST
AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND HIGHS COULD STAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR SOME COLD NIGHTS...AND IF ANY
CLEARING TAKES PLACE TEMPS COULD REALLY DROP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN UNEXPECTED CLEARING/THINNING OF THE SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAS
LED TO DELAYING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR...AND ULTIMATELY IFR
CIGS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. STILL SEE SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH BL COOLING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DID RELUCTANTLY TAKE OUT MENTION OF DRIZZLE...AS THE
VERTICAL PROFILE DOESN`T APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR IT. DO BELIEVE THAT
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ONLY INCREASES WITH TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CHANCE
RIGHT NOW SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.

WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE WEAK.  A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK...WITH COLDER AIR SURGING
BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 080029
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
729 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN BLACK ICE POTENTIAL IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS.

NORTHERN MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN "NO MANS LAND" WEATHERWISE TONIGHT...AS
WE ARE EFFECTIVELY DRY SLOTTED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD BUT
ALL OF THE FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST.  OF COURSE THIS IS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THERE ARE STILL WEATHER CONCERNS.  WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER A NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY INCREASE
MOISTURE DEPTH A BIT OVERNIGHT TOWARD 3-4K IN NORTHERN
LOWER...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM.  THIS SCENARIO
CERTAINLY RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS LIMITED AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WHICH MAY LIMIT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.  WILL TAKE LOW TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO EARLY AFTERNOON SFC
DWPTS...WHICH PUTS MANY AREAS WITHIN 1-2 DEGF OF FREEZING /30-34
DEGF/.  WILL INCLUDE A FREEZING DRIZZLE REFERENCE FOR LATER TONIGHT
OVER INTERIOR AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY END UP SEEING MORE STRATUS/FOG
THAN DRIZZLE.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF SOME BLACK ICE
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SATURATED LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE/PAVEMENT TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING WITH FOG.  WILL HANDLE THIS POTENTIAL THREAT WITH A
REFERENCE IN THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.

OVER EASTERN UPPER...MOISTURE WILL EXTEND CLOSER TO THE -10C
ISOTHERM AND SOME LIGHT SNOW /SNIZZLE?/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.  POCKETS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

WILL HANDLE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/BLACK ICE WITH A
MENTION IN THE HWO AS WELL AS THE WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.   THIS MAY
END UP BEING "SPS WORTHY" OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE
ON THAT AS THINGS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...BECOMING MUCH COLDER WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

BUSY PERIOD...WITH AN ABRUPT SWITCH FROM MILD TO VERY COLD WX. LOW
PRESSURE STARTS MONDAY MORNING OVER OUR HEADS...AND WILL MOVE
GRADUALLY EAST THRU THE PERIOD...BEFORE BEING LOST IN THE LARGER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. 500MB CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OVERHEAD MON-TUE...BEFORE IT MINORS OUT AND THE HEART OF THE UPPER
TROF MOVES EAST. HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES INTO TUE...WITH A TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE
EFFECT AFTER THAT. PRECIP/TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

MONDAY...NEARLY STACKED LOW WILL HOVER OVER LOWER MI. WE REMAIN
BENEATH THE DECAYING DRY SLOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY...NOTING THAT IN
GENERAL THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED WITH TIME. THAT LEAVES
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION. THERE WILL
BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE BELOW 800-850MB...AND SOME CIRRUS AND
HIGHER MID CLOUDS WELL ABOVE 700MB...BUT DRY AIR IN BETWEEN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS TO -6 TO -10C...COLDER NORTH THAN SOUTH. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF A MISTY/DRIZZLY PATTERN...PERHAPS MIXED
WITH SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
PLACES MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME -FZDZ IS POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS
IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 30S.

MON NIGHT-TUE...500MB LOW FILLS A BIT AS IT DRIFTS FROM SW LOWER MI
TO NORTHERN OH. REMNANT SURFACE LOW DRIFTS EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS LAKE HURON. THIS ALLOWS WHAT/S LEFT OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
TO WRAP BACK INTO NORTHERN MI. IT ALSO ALLOWS COLD AIR TO BLEED BACK
INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. 805MB TEMPS WILL LOWER TO THE MID/UPPER MINUS TEENS IN NW
LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK BY LATE TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A VERY
STEADY NNW 1000-850MB FETCH DURING THIS PERIOD. NOT QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE DEFINITELY GET
THERE TUE...AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SN/SHSN WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN NW
LOWER MI. ACCUMULATING SNOW (AND SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING ISSUES)
SHOULD REALLY START TO EMERGE TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS 20S. MAX TEMPS 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

TUE NIGHT-WED...COLD AIR GETS MORE SERIOUS ABOUT FLOODING THE
REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE EASTERN LAKES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BE EXITING TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN LESS PRECIP COVERAGE WITH TIME
OUTSIDE THE NNW-FLOW SNOWBELTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BELOW -20C BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THAT IS GETTING COLD ENOUGH TO START TO HINDER
DENDRITIC GROWTH AND SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELTS...
ESPECIALLY NW LOWER MI. MIN TEMPS 5 TO 15F. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF LIKELY HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SUPPORT FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...JUST NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS MOISTURE
THINS OUT A BIT AND OMEGA GETS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE DGZ. THE BIG
STORY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD. FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...HIGHS WILL FIGHT TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS...BUT THE COLDEST
AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND HIGHS COULD STAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR SOME COLD NIGHTS...AND IF ANY
CLEARING TAKES PLACE TEMPS COULD REALLY DROP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN UNEXPECTED CLEARING/THINNING OF THE SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAS
LED TO DELAYING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR...AND ULTIMATELY IFR
CIGS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. STILL SEE SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH BL COOLING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DID RELUCTANTLY TAKE OUT MENTION OF DRIZZLE...AS THE
VERTICAL PROFILE DOESN`T APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR IT. DO BELIEVE THAT
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ONLY INCREASES WITH TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CHANCE
RIGHT NOW SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.

WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE WEAK.  A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK...WITH COLDER AIR SURGING
BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...KEYSOR



000
FXUS63 KGRR 080019
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
719 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
SLOW DOWN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS A COLDER AIRMASS ACCOMPANIES THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
SUPPORT IMPACTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TO START...MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER FOR MONDAY. WITH FORECASTED
HIGHS ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING...IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT ANY IMPACTS
FROM FALLING SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL. TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENING
COMMUTE...IT MAY GET CLOSE TO FREEZING...BUT THAT WILL MORE LIKELY
HAPPEN AFTER 00Z TUE. GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT.

IT LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE MORNING COMMUTE BEGINS FOR
TUESDAY...WE WILL BE SEEING IMPACTS. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORS THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 131. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SUPPORTS THE REGION SOUTH OF HOLLAND FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. ONCE THEY DEVELOP...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFT IN THE DGZ ACTUALLY INCREASES ALONG THE
LAKESHORE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS WE WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE IMPACTS
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW END
RISK FOR HIGH IMPACTS...MOSTLY THE HOLLAND TO SOUTH HAVEN REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED PATTERN
CHANGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR AFFECTING THE AREA ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING WITH REGARDS TO
THE LONG TERM.

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ERN
U.S. WILL BE ENCOMPASSED BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE NRN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW
AND DEEP COLD AIR TO BE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR HIGHER
INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY COMING OVER
THE LAKES. THERE LOOK TO BE SOME STRONG AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE AREAS THAT WILL BE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE THE NW AND SW CORNERS OF THE CWFA WITH LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW EXPECTED.

SOME REPRIEVE CAN BE EXPECTED BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH REGARDS TO
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BRIEFLY LIFT
OUT AND ALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN A BIT AS A RESULT.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN...SO SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD NOT TOTALLY
DISSIPATE.

WE WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COME IN THEN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SURGE WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR THAN MID WEEK WITH
H850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE MID 20S C. WE WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE AS MUCH LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER PATTERN SET
UP A BIT DIFFERENT. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CANADA...SFC RIDGING WILL SITUATE ITSELF SUCH THAT WE WILL SEE A N-
NE FLOW. THIS WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT WEST OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON. WE WILL JUST SEE ARCTIC AIR WITH SOME POTENTIAL SUNSHINE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 09Z AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE... BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO MOSTLY MVFR CATEGORY FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WIND WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM
THIS EVENING. AFTER A LULL IN THE WINDS TONIGHT...THEY WILL START
TO INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE BUILDING WAVES. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS



000
FXUS63 KGRR 080019
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
719 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
SLOW DOWN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS A COLDER AIRMASS ACCOMPANIES THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
SUPPORT IMPACTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TO START...MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER FOR MONDAY. WITH FORECASTED
HIGHS ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING...IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT ANY IMPACTS
FROM FALLING SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL. TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENING
COMMUTE...IT MAY GET CLOSE TO FREEZING...BUT THAT WILL MORE LIKELY
HAPPEN AFTER 00Z TUE. GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT.

IT LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE MORNING COMMUTE BEGINS FOR
TUESDAY...WE WILL BE SEEING IMPACTS. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORS THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 131. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SUPPORTS THE REGION SOUTH OF HOLLAND FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. ONCE THEY DEVELOP...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFT IN THE DGZ ACTUALLY INCREASES ALONG THE
LAKESHORE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS WE WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE IMPACTS
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW END
RISK FOR HIGH IMPACTS...MOSTLY THE HOLLAND TO SOUTH HAVEN REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED PATTERN
CHANGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR AFFECTING THE AREA ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING WITH REGARDS TO
THE LONG TERM.

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ERN
U.S. WILL BE ENCOMPASSED BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE NRN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW
AND DEEP COLD AIR TO BE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR HIGHER
INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY COMING OVER
THE LAKES. THERE LOOK TO BE SOME STRONG AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE AREAS THAT WILL BE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE THE NW AND SW CORNERS OF THE CWFA WITH LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW EXPECTED.

SOME REPRIEVE CAN BE EXPECTED BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH REGARDS TO
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BRIEFLY LIFT
OUT AND ALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN A BIT AS A RESULT.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN...SO SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD NOT TOTALLY
DISSIPATE.

WE WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COME IN THEN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SURGE WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR THAN MID WEEK WITH
H850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE MID 20S C. WE WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE AS MUCH LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER PATTERN SET
UP A BIT DIFFERENT. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CANADA...SFC RIDGING WILL SITUATE ITSELF SUCH THAT WE WILL SEE A N-
NE FLOW. THIS WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT WEST OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON. WE WILL JUST SEE ARCTIC AIR WITH SOME POTENTIAL SUNSHINE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 09Z AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE... BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO MOSTLY MVFR CATEGORY FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WIND WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM
THIS EVENING. AFTER A LULL IN THE WINDS TONIGHT...THEY WILL START
TO INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE BUILDING WAVES. WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 080000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
700 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

BASED ON THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME LINGERING DRY AIR ALF TO THE E OF
SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO...ADDED SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
PORTIONS OF MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA. SINCE SFC WBLB TEMPS ARE
STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH WBLB ZERO HGT FCST TO
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HI OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY THE E HALF AND NEAR
LK SUP...ADDED A MIX WITH SOME RAIN INTO THE FCST FOR THOSE PLACES AS
WELL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A MOIST AND UPSLOPE E FLOW WL BRING LIFR/EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS TO
CMX THIS EVNG. AS A MOIST...CYC NNW FLOW DVLPS OVER WRN UPR MI
DURING THE EVNG/EARLY MRNG IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SFC LO PRES...A
STEADY -SN WL DVLP FIRST AT IWD AND THEN AT CMX JUST AFTER MIDNGT...
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF
THE FCST PERIOD UNDER LINGERING DEEP MSTR/A COLD NNW FLOW THAT
RESULTS IN PERSISTENT LES. AT SAW...EXPECT MVFR WX TO TRANSITION TO
IFR BY LATE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FOR A TIME
ON MON MRNG DURING A PERIOD OF STEADY -SN. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTN AS THE DEEPER MSTR/STEADY SN EXITS FOR A
TIME...VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF



000
FXUS63 KMQT 080000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
700 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

BASED ON THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME LINGERING DRY AIR ALF TO THE E OF
SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO...ADDED SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
PORTIONS OF MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA. SINCE SFC WBLB TEMPS ARE
STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH WBLB ZERO HGT FCST TO
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HI OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY THE E HALF AND NEAR
LK SUP...ADDED A MIX WITH SOME RAIN INTO THE FCST FOR THOSE PLACES AS
WELL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A MOIST AND UPSLOPE E FLOW WL BRING LIFR/EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS TO
CMX THIS EVNG. AS A MOIST...CYC NNW FLOW DVLPS OVER WRN UPR MI
DURING THE EVNG/EARLY MRNG IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SFC LO PRES...A
STEADY -SN WL DVLP FIRST AT IWD AND THEN AT CMX JUST AFTER MIDNGT...
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF
THE FCST PERIOD UNDER LINGERING DEEP MSTR/A COLD NNW FLOW THAT
RESULTS IN PERSISTENT LES. AT SAW...EXPECT MVFR WX TO TRANSITION TO
IFR BY LATE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FOR A TIME
ON MON MRNG DURING A PERIOD OF STEADY -SN. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTN AS THE DEEPER MSTR/STEADY SN EXITS FOR A
TIME...VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KDTX 072257
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
557 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.AVIATION...

MID CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWER VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURES DIGS SE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GUSTY
SW FLOW WILL EASE CONSIDERABLY AS THE FORECAST BEGINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS INTO SUNDAY...VEERING TO THE
WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SETTLES TO LAKE HURON. WHILE -SHRA OR
-SHSN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE FORECAST...COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS RATHER IFFY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM.

AT DTW...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...LIKELY JUST EAST OF
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AS DRY LOW LEVELS BELOW 5KFT OR SO
MAINTAIN DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO
SPRINKLES. CIGS WILL TREND BLO 5KFT LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN
MVFR OVERNIGHT...FLUCTUATING NEAR 4-5KFT INTO MONDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY EARLY MONDAY
  MORNING...THEN MEDIUM THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DISCUSSION...

THE AMPLIFICATION AND EVENTUAL BROADENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IS RESULTING IN A VERY CHALLENGING
FORECAST FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE INTEGRITY AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE HARBORED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.

DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL ABSOLUTE VORTICITY CENTERS ARE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
DATA SUPPORTS THE LEAD EDGE OR GRADIENT OF THE PARENT PV ANOMALY TO
PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TO IMPINGE UPON WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF A
RELATIVELY MESSY JET EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHERE A
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ELEMENT WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC IN CURVATURE AND BECOME PHASED WITHIN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE MUCH MORE DOMINANT NE U.S. JET BRANCH. THE NET RESULT
IS FOR SOME DECENT TO STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. WHAT IS LIKELY MORE FAVORABLE
FROM A DYNAMICAL STANDPOINT IS THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT
WILL BECOME SHARPER THIS EVENING ALONG THE PV GRADIENT WHERE FORCING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO THE MASS ADJUSTMENT CAUSED BY THE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD ARRIVAL. NUMERICAL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (WARM SFC TEMPERATURES) OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 01-04Z. PRETTY INCONSEQUENTIAL...WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF OR LESS.

THE LOW PREDICTABILITY THEN BEGINS IN EARNEST ALREADY LATE TONIGHT
AS INTRA-INTER MODEL CONTINUITY HAS BEEN EXTREMELY POOR WITH REGARDS
TO AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL SATURATE/DEVELOP OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR DETROIT RIVER/LAKE
ST CLAIR. EARLIER DETERMINISTIC AND HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOWED AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE 10-
12Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND
OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN. THE NEW 07.12Z ITERATIONS OF
THESE SAME MODELS ARRIVED AND BACKED WAY OFF. PREFERENCE SIDES WITH
A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIME FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS...1. THERE IS NO LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE DRIVING
ADVECTION...2. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WHILE BEING AIDED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT IS STILL LIKELY DEPENDENT ON A GOOD
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION THIS EVENING. THE NAM
IS SHOWING A MINIMUM CORRIDOR OF 850-700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
DIRECTLY IN PLACE AT 12Z MONDAY.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW SUPPORT THE CORRIDOR OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATIONPROGRESSING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE MONDAY
PERIOD SETTING UP WHAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS.
WHILE A CLASSIC MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT IS NOT RESOLVED FOR
MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL DATA SUPPORTS NEUTRAL
TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. CARRYING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN MANY AREAS. THE ONE ITEM TO WATCH FOR
IS SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT/GRADIENT FEATURE THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
CWA/SAGINAW VALLEY BETWEEN 21- 24Z MONDAY. NO TANGIBLE HEIGHT
RISES WILL SUPPORT VERY LITTLE COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY.
PREFERENCE SIDES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 DEGREES.

THE MODEL TREND TODAY HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHWARD SOLUTION WITH
THE MAIN VORTICITY ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS BY TUESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS POSSIBLY MORE OF AN EASTWARD LEAK TO THE SURFACE
LOW/REFLECTION THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER ADVERTISED. THE BEST CVA WOULD
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD TAKE THE MAIN DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN IS MORE IN THE WAY OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS A DRY ONE
FOR THE AREA. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -20C 850MB
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE ITEM OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS A
POTENTIAL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SHOVEL-ABLE SNOWS OVER PORTIONS OF THE THUMB...PRIMARILY ON
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON SO FAR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z GFS/GEFS
MEAN/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT -15 TO -20C 850 MB TEMPS WED/THU.
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN COLDER AIR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARCTIC CLOSED
LOW SWEEPING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR AS IT LOOKS TO BE A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE
HEART OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST US...BUT EVEN A GLANCING
BLOW WOULD LIKELY PUT 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -20 TO -25C WHICH WOULD BE
THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS WINTER. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY ON A
DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER...DRIER NW FLOW
SETS UP.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE AS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...ALONG WITH SNOW
SQUALLS...AS MUCH COLDER FILTERS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 072257
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
557 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.AVIATION...

MID CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWER VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURES DIGS SE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GUSTY
SW FLOW WILL EASE CONSIDERABLY AS THE FORECAST BEGINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS INTO SUNDAY...VEERING TO THE
WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SETTLES TO LAKE HURON. WHILE -SHRA OR
-SHSN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE FORECAST...COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS RATHER IFFY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM.

AT DTW...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...LIKELY JUST EAST OF
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AS DRY LOW LEVELS BELOW 5KFT OR SO
MAINTAIN DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO
SPRINKLES. CIGS WILL TREND BLO 5KFT LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN
MVFR OVERNIGHT...FLUCTUATING NEAR 4-5KFT INTO MONDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY EARLY MONDAY
  MORNING...THEN MEDIUM THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DISCUSSION...

THE AMPLIFICATION AND EVENTUAL BROADENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IS RESULTING IN A VERY CHALLENGING
FORECAST FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE INTEGRITY AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE HARBORED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.

DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL ABSOLUTE VORTICITY CENTERS ARE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
DATA SUPPORTS THE LEAD EDGE OR GRADIENT OF THE PARENT PV ANOMALY TO
PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TO IMPINGE UPON WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF A
RELATIVELY MESSY JET EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHERE A
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ELEMENT WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC IN CURVATURE AND BECOME PHASED WITHIN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE MUCH MORE DOMINANT NE U.S. JET BRANCH. THE NET RESULT
IS FOR SOME DECENT TO STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. WHAT IS LIKELY MORE FAVORABLE
FROM A DYNAMICAL STANDPOINT IS THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT
WILL BECOME SHARPER THIS EVENING ALONG THE PV GRADIENT WHERE FORCING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO THE MASS ADJUSTMENT CAUSED BY THE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD ARRIVAL. NUMERICAL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (WARM SFC TEMPERATURES) OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 01-04Z. PRETTY INCONSEQUENTIAL...WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF OR LESS.

THE LOW PREDICTABILITY THEN BEGINS IN EARNEST ALREADY LATE TONIGHT
AS INTRA-INTER MODEL CONTINUITY HAS BEEN EXTREMELY POOR WITH REGARDS
TO AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL SATURATE/DEVELOP OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR DETROIT RIVER/LAKE
ST CLAIR. EARLIER DETERMINISTIC AND HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOWED AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE 10-
12Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND
OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN. THE NEW 07.12Z ITERATIONS OF
THESE SAME MODELS ARRIVED AND BACKED WAY OFF. PREFERENCE SIDES WITH
A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIME FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS...1. THERE IS NO LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE DRIVING
ADVECTION...2. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WHILE BEING AIDED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT IS STILL LIKELY DEPENDENT ON A GOOD
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION THIS EVENING. THE NAM
IS SHOWING A MINIMUM CORRIDOR OF 850-700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
DIRECTLY IN PLACE AT 12Z MONDAY.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW SUPPORT THE CORRIDOR OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATIONPROGRESSING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE MONDAY
PERIOD SETTING UP WHAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS.
WHILE A CLASSIC MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT IS NOT RESOLVED FOR
MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL DATA SUPPORTS NEUTRAL
TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. CARRYING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN MANY AREAS. THE ONE ITEM TO WATCH FOR
IS SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT/GRADIENT FEATURE THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
CWA/SAGINAW VALLEY BETWEEN 21- 24Z MONDAY. NO TANGIBLE HEIGHT
RISES WILL SUPPORT VERY LITTLE COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY.
PREFERENCE SIDES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 DEGREES.

THE MODEL TREND TODAY HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHWARD SOLUTION WITH
THE MAIN VORTICITY ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS BY TUESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS POSSIBLY MORE OF AN EASTWARD LEAK TO THE SURFACE
LOW/REFLECTION THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER ADVERTISED. THE BEST CVA WOULD
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD TAKE THE MAIN DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN IS MORE IN THE WAY OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS A DRY ONE
FOR THE AREA. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -20C 850MB
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE ITEM OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS A
POTENTIAL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SHOVEL-ABLE SNOWS OVER PORTIONS OF THE THUMB...PRIMARILY ON
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON SO FAR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z GFS/GEFS
MEAN/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT -15 TO -20C 850 MB TEMPS WED/THU.
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN COLDER AIR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARCTIC CLOSED
LOW SWEEPING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR AS IT LOOKS TO BE A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE
HEART OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST US...BUT EVEN A GLANCING
BLOW WOULD LIKELY PUT 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -20 TO -25C WHICH WOULD BE
THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS WINTER. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY ON A
DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER...DRIER NW FLOW
SETS UP.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE AS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...ALONG WITH SNOW
SQUALLS...AS MUCH COLDER FILTERS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 072257
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
557 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.AVIATION...

MID CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWER VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURES DIGS SE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GUSTY
SW FLOW WILL EASE CONSIDERABLY AS THE FORECAST BEGINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS INTO SUNDAY...VEERING TO THE
WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SETTLES TO LAKE HURON. WHILE -SHRA OR
-SHSN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE FORECAST...COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS RATHER IFFY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM.

AT DTW...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...LIKELY JUST EAST OF
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AS DRY LOW LEVELS BELOW 5KFT OR SO
MAINTAIN DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO
SPRINKLES. CIGS WILL TREND BLO 5KFT LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN
MVFR OVERNIGHT...FLUCTUATING NEAR 4-5KFT INTO MONDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY EARLY MONDAY
  MORNING...THEN MEDIUM THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DISCUSSION...

THE AMPLIFICATION AND EVENTUAL BROADENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IS RESULTING IN A VERY CHALLENGING
FORECAST FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE INTEGRITY AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE HARBORED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.

DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL ABSOLUTE VORTICITY CENTERS ARE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
DATA SUPPORTS THE LEAD EDGE OR GRADIENT OF THE PARENT PV ANOMALY TO
PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TO IMPINGE UPON WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF A
RELATIVELY MESSY JET EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHERE A
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ELEMENT WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC IN CURVATURE AND BECOME PHASED WITHIN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE MUCH MORE DOMINANT NE U.S. JET BRANCH. THE NET RESULT
IS FOR SOME DECENT TO STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. WHAT IS LIKELY MORE FAVORABLE
FROM A DYNAMICAL STANDPOINT IS THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT
WILL BECOME SHARPER THIS EVENING ALONG THE PV GRADIENT WHERE FORCING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO THE MASS ADJUSTMENT CAUSED BY THE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD ARRIVAL. NUMERICAL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (WARM SFC TEMPERATURES) OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 01-04Z. PRETTY INCONSEQUENTIAL...WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF OR LESS.

THE LOW PREDICTABILITY THEN BEGINS IN EARNEST ALREADY LATE TONIGHT
AS INTRA-INTER MODEL CONTINUITY HAS BEEN EXTREMELY POOR WITH REGARDS
TO AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL SATURATE/DEVELOP OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR DETROIT RIVER/LAKE
ST CLAIR. EARLIER DETERMINISTIC AND HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOWED AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE 10-
12Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND
OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN. THE NEW 07.12Z ITERATIONS OF
THESE SAME MODELS ARRIVED AND BACKED WAY OFF. PREFERENCE SIDES WITH
A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIME FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS...1. THERE IS NO LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE DRIVING
ADVECTION...2. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WHILE BEING AIDED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT IS STILL LIKELY DEPENDENT ON A GOOD
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION THIS EVENING. THE NAM
IS SHOWING A MINIMUM CORRIDOR OF 850-700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
DIRECTLY IN PLACE AT 12Z MONDAY.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW SUPPORT THE CORRIDOR OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATIONPROGRESSING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE MONDAY
PERIOD SETTING UP WHAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS.
WHILE A CLASSIC MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT IS NOT RESOLVED FOR
MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL DATA SUPPORTS NEUTRAL
TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. CARRYING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN MANY AREAS. THE ONE ITEM TO WATCH FOR
IS SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT/GRADIENT FEATURE THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
CWA/SAGINAW VALLEY BETWEEN 21- 24Z MONDAY. NO TANGIBLE HEIGHT
RISES WILL SUPPORT VERY LITTLE COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY.
PREFERENCE SIDES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 DEGREES.

THE MODEL TREND TODAY HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHWARD SOLUTION WITH
THE MAIN VORTICITY ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS BY TUESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS POSSIBLY MORE OF AN EASTWARD LEAK TO THE SURFACE
LOW/REFLECTION THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER ADVERTISED. THE BEST CVA WOULD
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD TAKE THE MAIN DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN IS MORE IN THE WAY OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS A DRY ONE
FOR THE AREA. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -20C 850MB
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE ITEM OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS A
POTENTIAL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SHOVEL-ABLE SNOWS OVER PORTIONS OF THE THUMB...PRIMARILY ON
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON SO FAR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z GFS/GEFS
MEAN/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT -15 TO -20C 850 MB TEMPS WED/THU.
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN COLDER AIR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARCTIC CLOSED
LOW SWEEPING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR AS IT LOOKS TO BE A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE
HEART OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST US...BUT EVEN A GLANCING
BLOW WOULD LIKELY PUT 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -20 TO -25C WHICH WOULD BE
THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS WINTER. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY ON A
DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER...DRIER NW FLOW
SETS UP.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE AS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...ALONG WITH SNOW
SQUALLS...AS MUCH COLDER FILTERS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KMQT 072058
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MOST OF THE SITES /AND ESPECIALLY IWD AT MVFR CONDITIONS/ ARE IN THE
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW AND THE MORE STEADY SNOW
NEARING FROM NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL BE SLIDING IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS W-E AT ALL
SITES...DOWN TO TO IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS...WITH VIS FALLING TO LIFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTS OVER SAW BY
06Z...AND THE PREDOMINATELY S WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NNW TONIGHT AT
CMX AND IWD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO FAR E UPPER MI BY
18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NNW AT SAW IN THE
MORNING...BRINGING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KDTX 072049
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THE AMPLIFICATION AND EVENTUAL BROADENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IS RESULTING IN A VERY CHALLENGING
FORECAST FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE INTEGRITY AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE HARBORED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.

DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL ABSOLUTE VORTICITY CENTERS ARE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
DATA SUPPORTS THE LEAD EDGE OR GRADIENT OF THE PARENT PV ANOMALY TO
PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TO IMPINGE UPON WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF A
RELATIVELY MESSY JET EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHERE A
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ELEMENT WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC IN CURVATURE AND BECOME PHASED WITHIN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE MUCH MORE DOMINANT NE U.S. JET BRANCH. THE NET RESULT
IS FOR SOME DECENT TO STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. WHAT IS LIKELY MORE FAVORABLE
FROM A DYNAMICAL STANDPOINT IS THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT
WILL BECOME SHARPER THIS EVENING ALONG THE PV GRADIENT WHERE FORCING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO THE MASS ADJUSTMENT CAUSED BY THE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD ARRIVAL. NUMERICAL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (WARM SFC TEMPERATURES) OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 01-04Z. PRETTY INCONSEQUENTIAL...WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF OR LESS.

THE LOW PREDICTABILITY THEN BEGINS IN EARNEST ALREADY LATE TONIGHT
AS INTRA-INTER MODEL CONTINUITY HAS BEEN EXTREMELY POOR WITH REGARDS
TO AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL SATURATE/DEVELOP OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR DETROIT RIVER/LAKE
ST CLAIR. EARLIER DETERMINISTIC AND HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOWED AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE 10-
12Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND
OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN. THE NEW 07.12Z ITERATIONS OF
THESE SAME MODELS ARRIVED AND BACKED WAY OFF. PREFERENCE SIDES WITH
A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIME FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS...1. THERE IS NO LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE DRIVING
ADVECTION...2. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WHILE BEING AIDED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT IS STILL LIKELY DEPENDENT ON A GOOD
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION THIS EVENING. THE NAM
IS SHOWING A MINIMUM CORRIDOR OF 850-700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
DIRECTLY IN PLACE AT 12Z MONDAY.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW SUPPORT THE CORRIDOR OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATIONPROGRESSING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE MONDAY
PERIOD SETTING UP WHAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS.
WHILE A CLASSIC MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT IS NOT RESOLVED FOR
MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL DATA SUPPORTS NEUTRAL
TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. CARRYING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN MANY AREAS. THE ONE ITEM TO WATCH FOR
IS SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT/GRADIENT FEATURE THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
CWA/SAGINAW VALLEY BETWEEN 21- 24Z MONDAY. NO TANGIBLE HEIGHT
RISES WILL SUPPORT VERY LITTLE COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY.
PREFERENCE SIDES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 DEGREES.

THE MODEL TREND TODAY HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHWARD SOLUTION WITH
THE MAIN VORTICITY ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS BY TUESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS POSSIBLY MORE OF AN EASTWARD LEAK TO THE SURFACE
LOW/REFLECTION THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER ADVERTISED. THE BEST CVA WOULD
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD TAKE THE MAIN DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN IS MORE IN THE WAY OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS A DRY ONE
FOR THE AREA. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -20C 850MB
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE ITEM OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS A
POTENTIAL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SHOVEL-ABLE SNOWS OVER PORTIONS OF THE THUMB...PRIMARILY ON
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON SO FAR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z GFS/GEFS
MEAN/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT -15 TO -20C 850 MB TEMPS WED/THU.
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN COLDER AIR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARCTIC CLOSED
LOW SWEEPING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR AS IT LOOKS TO BE A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE
HEART OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST US...BUT EVEN A GLANCING
BLOW WOULD LIKELY PUT 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -20 TO -25C WHICH WOULD BE
THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS WINTER. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY ON A
DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER...DRIER NW FLOW
SETS UP.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE AS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...ALONG WITH SNOW
SQUALLS...AS MUCH COLDER FILTERS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MID CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR BETTER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY SUB 700 MB
LAYER...BUT STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING SOME MODEST
MOISTURE...AND 12Z MODELS SUGGESTING A FLARE UP OF LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES AND AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. IT IS A
DIFFICULT FORECAST...AS UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AROUND ST LOUIS
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DO NOT INDICATE THIS...BUT
THERE IS SOME VIRGA TRANSLATING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE
MOMENT. ALSO...SURFA