Home > Products > State Listing > Michigan Data
Latest:
 AFDAPX |  AFDGRR |  AFDDTX |  AFDMQT |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 181153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SLOWLY OVER
SE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY AND MAINTAIN MVFR CEILING AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES. A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW GRAINS OR VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FZDZ WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT VERY TRANSIENT DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL UPDATES IF ANY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR AND LESS CLOUDS TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND THE WIND TURNS MORE FROM THE NORTH.

FOR DTW... MVFR CEILING WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF SNOW GRAINS OR
DRIZZLE/FZDZ DURING THE MORNING. NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED
AND THE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL NOT BE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASED ACTIVITY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS OBSERVED HERE
LOCALLY TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN A
FEW THUMB LOCATIONS TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
CORRESPONDING LOSS OF SHEAR AT THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO TAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
START THE DAY WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY. 00Z OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT ABOUT 900 MB THAT WILL PREVENT MIXING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ANY RESULTING CLOUD EROSION. THE
INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE THUMB IS KEPT IN MIND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TOWARD THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CANADIAN RADAR
IN EXETER INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING SOME MODEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW CONVECTIVE DEPTH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB WITH
DELTA THETA-E NEAR 4K OR LI ABOUT -1C. THERE IS ALSO SOME SEEDING OF
THE DGZ FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STRIPPING AWAY DURING
THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND BEFORE THE
WIND STARTS TO VEER. THEN...BY TONIGHT...DRY AIR COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DGZ AND FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO 900 MB/3000 FEET OR LESS WHILE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE LAYER DECREASES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY NOT EVEN BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED LINGERING
STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION.  HOWEVER RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RECENT
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ONLY
BY THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NOTED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL AND
RAPIDLY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS IT GETS REINFORCEMENTS FROM A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGEOVER THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOWFALL ONCE THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
HEAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
COULD CERTAINLY BOOST VALUES SOME IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS BECOME
VIGOROUS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM PLAYING
OUT IN THIS GENERAL SENSE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT PHASES THE SYSTEMS QUICKER AND DEEPENS THE
LOW SOONER THAN THE ECMWF.  FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.  WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.  THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 181153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SLOWLY OVER
SE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY AND MAINTAIN MVFR CEILING AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES. A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW GRAINS OR VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FZDZ WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT VERY TRANSIENT DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL UPDATES IF ANY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR AND LESS CLOUDS TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND THE WIND TURNS MORE FROM THE NORTH.

FOR DTW... MVFR CEILING WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF SNOW GRAINS OR
DRIZZLE/FZDZ DURING THE MORNING. NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED
AND THE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL NOT BE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASED ACTIVITY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS OBSERVED HERE
LOCALLY TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN A
FEW THUMB LOCATIONS TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
CORRESPONDING LOSS OF SHEAR AT THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO TAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
START THE DAY WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY. 00Z OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT ABOUT 900 MB THAT WILL PREVENT MIXING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ANY RESULTING CLOUD EROSION. THE
INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE THUMB IS KEPT IN MIND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TOWARD THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CANADIAN RADAR
IN EXETER INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING SOME MODEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW CONVECTIVE DEPTH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB WITH
DELTA THETA-E NEAR 4K OR LI ABOUT -1C. THERE IS ALSO SOME SEEDING OF
THE DGZ FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STRIPPING AWAY DURING
THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND BEFORE THE
WIND STARTS TO VEER. THEN...BY TONIGHT...DRY AIR COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DGZ AND FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO 900 MB/3000 FEET OR LESS WHILE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE LAYER DECREASES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY NOT EVEN BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED LINGERING
STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION.  HOWEVER RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RECENT
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ONLY
BY THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NOTED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL AND
RAPIDLY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS IT GETS REINFORCEMENTS FROM A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGEOVER THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOWFALL ONCE THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
HEAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
COULD CERTAINLY BOOST VALUES SOME IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS BECOME
VIGOROUS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM PLAYING
OUT IN THIS GENERAL SENSE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT PHASES THE SYSTEMS QUICKER AND DEEPENS THE
LOW SOONER THAN THE ECMWF.  FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.  WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.  THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 181153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SLOWLY OVER
SE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY AND MAINTAIN MVFR CEILING AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES. A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW GRAINS OR VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FZDZ WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT VERY TRANSIENT DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL UPDATES IF ANY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR AND LESS CLOUDS TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND THE WIND TURNS MORE FROM THE NORTH.

FOR DTW... MVFR CEILING WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF SNOW GRAINS OR
DRIZZLE/FZDZ DURING THE MORNING. NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED
AND THE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL NOT BE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASED ACTIVITY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS OBSERVED HERE
LOCALLY TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN A
FEW THUMB LOCATIONS TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
CORRESPONDING LOSS OF SHEAR AT THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO TAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
START THE DAY WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY. 00Z OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT ABOUT 900 MB THAT WILL PREVENT MIXING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ANY RESULTING CLOUD EROSION. THE
INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE THUMB IS KEPT IN MIND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TOWARD THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CANADIAN RADAR
IN EXETER INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING SOME MODEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW CONVECTIVE DEPTH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB WITH
DELTA THETA-E NEAR 4K OR LI ABOUT -1C. THERE IS ALSO SOME SEEDING OF
THE DGZ FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STRIPPING AWAY DURING
THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND BEFORE THE
WIND STARTS TO VEER. THEN...BY TONIGHT...DRY AIR COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DGZ AND FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO 900 MB/3000 FEET OR LESS WHILE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE LAYER DECREASES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY NOT EVEN BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED LINGERING
STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION.  HOWEVER RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RECENT
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ONLY
BY THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NOTED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL AND
RAPIDLY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS IT GETS REINFORCEMENTS FROM A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGEOVER THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOWFALL ONCE THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
HEAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
COULD CERTAINLY BOOST VALUES SOME IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS BECOME
VIGOROUS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM PLAYING
OUT IN THIS GENERAL SENSE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT PHASES THE SYSTEMS QUICKER AND DEEPENS THE
LOW SOONER THAN THE ECMWF.  FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.  WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.  THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 181153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SLOWLY OVER
SE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY AND MAINTAIN MVFR CEILING AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES. A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW GRAINS OR VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FZDZ WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT VERY TRANSIENT DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL UPDATES IF ANY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR AND LESS CLOUDS TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND THE WIND TURNS MORE FROM THE NORTH.

FOR DTW... MVFR CEILING WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF SNOW GRAINS OR
DRIZZLE/FZDZ DURING THE MORNING. NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED
AND THE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL NOT BE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASED ACTIVITY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS OBSERVED HERE
LOCALLY TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN A
FEW THUMB LOCATIONS TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
CORRESPONDING LOSS OF SHEAR AT THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO TAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
START THE DAY WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY. 00Z OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT ABOUT 900 MB THAT WILL PREVENT MIXING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ANY RESULTING CLOUD EROSION. THE
INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE THUMB IS KEPT IN MIND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TOWARD THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CANADIAN RADAR
IN EXETER INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING SOME MODEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW CONVECTIVE DEPTH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB WITH
DELTA THETA-E NEAR 4K OR LI ABOUT -1C. THERE IS ALSO SOME SEEDING OF
THE DGZ FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STRIPPING AWAY DURING
THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND BEFORE THE
WIND STARTS TO VEER. THEN...BY TONIGHT...DRY AIR COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DGZ AND FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO 900 MB/3000 FEET OR LESS WHILE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE LAYER DECREASES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY NOT EVEN BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED LINGERING
STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION.  HOWEVER RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RECENT
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ONLY
BY THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NOTED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL AND
RAPIDLY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS IT GETS REINFORCEMENTS FROM A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGEOVER THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOWFALL ONCE THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
HEAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
COULD CERTAINLY BOOST VALUES SOME IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS BECOME
VIGOROUS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM PLAYING
OUT IN THIS GENERAL SENSE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT PHASES THE SYSTEMS QUICKER AND DEEPENS THE
LOW SOONER THAN THE ECMWF.  FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.  WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.  THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMQT 181137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
637 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE...A 1029MB SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
MINNESOTA WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT LED TO THE SNOW YESTERDAY
IS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH HAS PULLED
DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES THIS PAST EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE SPOTS WHERE
THE CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT...GENERALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND ALSO IT/S STARTING TO OVER THE EAST. WHERE SKIES CLEARED
OUT...3AM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO (6
DEGREES AT KCMX)...WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. STILL SEEING LIGHT
FLURRIES HERE AT OUR OFFICE AT 330AM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
TODAY...EXPECT CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FIRST THE LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DIMINISHMENT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE LOW
CLOUDS...KMQT VWP INDICATES CLOUD TOPS AROUND 2.5KFT...WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE INVERSION INDICATED ON THE MODELS AT
900MB. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THEY DISSIPATE TODAY. AT
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND LIMITED
MIXING...THERE IS LITTLE DAY TIME HELP AND WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS WHERE
THE MODELS TEND TO DIFFER. THE 00Z NAM HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THINK THAT
IS LARGELY TIED TO IT TRADITIONALLY OVER DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THAT APPEARS TO THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE IT HAS THE LOW
CLOUDS JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY BEING MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND SUPPOSEDLY ENTERING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME.
THE RECENT RAP (ALONG WITH THE HRRR) RUNS ALSO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THEM OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
APPEARS TO HAVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
RUNS...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THEY HOLD ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING
AND THEN SCATTER THEM OUT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT FOR THE CLOUD
COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MEANWHILE OVER THE EAST...THE ADVECTION
OF THE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE UPSLOPE HELP SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THAT DRY
AIR HAS ALREADY SCATTERED THE CLOUDS OUT OVER LUCE COUNTY AND
STARTING TO SEE IT WORK INTO ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF GOING AT OR BELOW THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE. THE GEM MODELS USUALLY PERFORM WELL IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS AND THEY HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS WHERE THEY ARE NOT INDICATING CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL
GEM REDEVELOPS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT). THUS...HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH KCMX DROPPING TO 6
DEGREES AT 3AM THIS MORNING...THAT SUPPORTS TO EXPECTATIONS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS EXPECTED DROP IN TEMPS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR AT LEAST SOME SOLID FROST. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER TEENS TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP THROUGH THOSE
VALUES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS THIS PAST EVENING AT KCMX WERE
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THEIR QUICK TEMP DROP AND LIGHT WINDS...THEY HAVEN/T
EXPERIENCED ANY FOG AT THIS POINT...BUT THE ICE ACCRETION ALGORITHM
DID INDICATE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THAT QUICK
DROP AND IN TURN SOME QUICK/HARD FROST ON THE SENSOR. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY VERY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS AT KCMX OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AS IT WILL FORESHADOW WHAT WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY...A DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER MOISTURE
BENEATH THE PROMINENT 925 MB INVERSION WILL LINGER ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S.

FRI NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING BUT MAY
REBOUND LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING 850 MB WAA AND
ASSOCIATED 280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WITH THE MID LEVEL REMAINING
DRY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN LAKES...SRLY WINDS
WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX READINGS CLIMB TO AROUND 30 DESPITE THE
THICKENING CLOUDS.

SUN...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...THE
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW.
THE DYNAMICS REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
CONTINUED WAA WILL NUDGE MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

MON-WED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF HOW THE SHORTWAVES DIVING
INTO THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT AND HOW THAT WILL INFLUENCE
THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE SFC FEATURES. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE
FROM MON INTO MON NIGHT AS THE INITIAL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TO BRING POTENTIAL FOR
SOME RAIN INTO THE EAST HALF. THE PREFERRED/MORE CONSISTENT 00Z/12Z
ECMWF KEEP THE LOW AND WARMER AIR SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...MINIMIZING CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE LARGER DISPARITIES DEVELOP
BY WED WITH THE HANDLING OF A STRONGER SHRTWV THAT WOULD SUPPORT
RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW. THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE
BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE CNTRL LAKE AND
THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY AND HAVE SHIFTED THE STRONGER LOW
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE THE MODELS REVERT BACK TO THE STRONGER LOW THROUGH LOWER MI. WITH
SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND HIGH ENSEMBLE/MODEL SPREAD...THE FCST
MAINTAINS HIGHER END SNOW CHANCES BUT WITH LESS EMPHASIS FOR NOW ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS UNTIL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE DRIER AIR SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY. SKIES
CLEARED YESTERDAY EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THEY WILL
STAY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. AT
KIWD/KSAW...THE MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION...BUT THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN SEEN MAKING A DENT OVER THE
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KSAW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUDS...IT SHOULD BE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SHOW A CATEGORY
DROP.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15KTS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A NEARLY
STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND GENERALLY
UNDER 20KTS. THIS TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 181137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
637 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE...A 1029MB SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
MINNESOTA WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT LED TO THE SNOW YESTERDAY
IS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH HAS PULLED
DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES THIS PAST EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE SPOTS WHERE
THE CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT...GENERALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND ALSO IT/S STARTING TO OVER THE EAST. WHERE SKIES CLEARED
OUT...3AM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO (6
DEGREES AT KCMX)...WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. STILL SEEING LIGHT
FLURRIES HERE AT OUR OFFICE AT 330AM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
TODAY...EXPECT CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FIRST THE LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DIMINISHMENT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE LOW
CLOUDS...KMQT VWP INDICATES CLOUD TOPS AROUND 2.5KFT...WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE INVERSION INDICATED ON THE MODELS AT
900MB. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THEY DISSIPATE TODAY. AT
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND LIMITED
MIXING...THERE IS LITTLE DAY TIME HELP AND WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS WHERE
THE MODELS TEND TO DIFFER. THE 00Z NAM HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THINK THAT
IS LARGELY TIED TO IT TRADITIONALLY OVER DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THAT APPEARS TO THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE IT HAS THE LOW
CLOUDS JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY BEING MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND SUPPOSEDLY ENTERING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME.
THE RECENT RAP (ALONG WITH THE HRRR) RUNS ALSO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THEM OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
APPEARS TO HAVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
RUNS...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THEY HOLD ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING
AND THEN SCATTER THEM OUT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT FOR THE CLOUD
COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MEANWHILE OVER THE EAST...THE ADVECTION
OF THE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE UPSLOPE HELP SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THAT DRY
AIR HAS ALREADY SCATTERED THE CLOUDS OUT OVER LUCE COUNTY AND
STARTING TO SEE IT WORK INTO ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF GOING AT OR BELOW THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE. THE GEM MODELS USUALLY PERFORM WELL IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS AND THEY HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS WHERE THEY ARE NOT INDICATING CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL
GEM REDEVELOPS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT). THUS...HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH KCMX DROPPING TO 6
DEGREES AT 3AM THIS MORNING...THAT SUPPORTS TO EXPECTATIONS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS EXPECTED DROP IN TEMPS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR AT LEAST SOME SOLID FROST. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER TEENS TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP THROUGH THOSE
VALUES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS THIS PAST EVENING AT KCMX WERE
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THEIR QUICK TEMP DROP AND LIGHT WINDS...THEY HAVEN/T
EXPERIENCED ANY FOG AT THIS POINT...BUT THE ICE ACCRETION ALGORITHM
DID INDICATE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THAT QUICK
DROP AND IN TURN SOME QUICK/HARD FROST ON THE SENSOR. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY VERY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS AT KCMX OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AS IT WILL FORESHADOW WHAT WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY...A DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER MOISTURE
BENEATH THE PROMINENT 925 MB INVERSION WILL LINGER ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S.

FRI NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING BUT MAY
REBOUND LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING 850 MB WAA AND
ASSOCIATED 280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WITH THE MID LEVEL REMAINING
DRY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN LAKES...SRLY WINDS
WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX READINGS CLIMB TO AROUND 30 DESPITE THE
THICKENING CLOUDS.

SUN...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...THE
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW.
THE DYNAMICS REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
CONTINUED WAA WILL NUDGE MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

MON-WED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF HOW THE SHORTWAVES DIVING
INTO THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT AND HOW THAT WILL INFLUENCE
THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE SFC FEATURES. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE
FROM MON INTO MON NIGHT AS THE INITIAL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TO BRING POTENTIAL FOR
SOME RAIN INTO THE EAST HALF. THE PREFERRED/MORE CONSISTENT 00Z/12Z
ECMWF KEEP THE LOW AND WARMER AIR SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...MINIMIZING CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE LARGER DISPARITIES DEVELOP
BY WED WITH THE HANDLING OF A STRONGER SHRTWV THAT WOULD SUPPORT
RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW. THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE
BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE CNTRL LAKE AND
THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY AND HAVE SHIFTED THE STRONGER LOW
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE THE MODELS REVERT BACK TO THE STRONGER LOW THROUGH LOWER MI. WITH
SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND HIGH ENSEMBLE/MODEL SPREAD...THE FCST
MAINTAINS HIGHER END SNOW CHANCES BUT WITH LESS EMPHASIS FOR NOW ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS UNTIL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE DRIER AIR SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY. SKIES
CLEARED YESTERDAY EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THEY WILL
STAY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. AT
KIWD/KSAW...THE MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION...BUT THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN SEEN MAKING A DENT OVER THE
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KSAW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUDS...IT SHOULD BE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SHOW A CATEGORY
DROP.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15KTS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A NEARLY
STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND GENERALLY
UNDER 20KTS. THIS TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KAPX 181115
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
615 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...SUNSHINE...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

UPPER AND SFC LOWS ARE IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK
FLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DRYING HAS ALREADY SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING BACK ALONG RESIDUAL LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROUGHING. THIS SQUASHED THE SNOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
LEFT SOME WEAK/VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN NNW/NORTH FLOW REGIMES. WE
ARE EVEN SEEING THIS SNOW GET SEVERELY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF THE DRIER AIR IS RIGHT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN...AND IS SEEN VIA LATEST SATELLITE...WITH CLEARING ALREADY
PUNCHING THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND EVEN PARTS OF FAR NRN LOWER. THIS
IS IN CONTRAST TO WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN UPPER WHERE THE
STRATUS IS ACTUALLY EXPANDING WEST/NW OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS IN EASTERN UPPER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTH TODAY...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONGER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS. LATEST SATELLITE AND DATA SUGGEST NOTHING TO STOP
THIS STRONGER PUSH OF DRYING AIR. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL TAKE LONGEST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES WHERE
CONTINUED OVERLAKE INSTABILITY HELP FEED OFF THE LAKES. THAT
SAID...WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTINUALLY MINIMIZE ANY
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE WATER. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGES: CLOUD COVER.

OVERVIEW(ANALYSIS AND FORECAST)...SEMI-BLOCKY PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO, AND THE LOWS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE REGION. THIS BLOCKY PATTERN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
AND MOVE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SATURDAY) AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND (SUNDAY).

(12/19)FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE
DRY AIR AT 850 MB AND IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER (RH<30% IN BOTH), WILL
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, THE CAVEAT
HAS BEEN THAT THE MODELS KEEP FLIP-FLOPPING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION. AT THIS POINT, THE MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, NAM)
ARE ALL SHOWING DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THIS HAPPENS. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS. OVERNIGHT MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC, IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE, WE COULD HAVE ISSUES WITH LOW
STRATUS/FOG IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION THAT WILL PROBABLY FORM UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS AND INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE THE OPTIMISM.

(12/20)SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF WHATEVER HAPPENS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LIGHT FLOW WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR
ANYTHING OUT THAT DOES FORM FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE IF IT IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, THEN THE DAY WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...CLEARING EVENTUALLY...

DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL EAT AWAY AT THE PESKY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE ALSO KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS VERY
LIGHT. VSBYS ONLY TEMPORARILY INTO MVFR AROUND MBL THIS MORNING.
TOTAL CLEARING DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...AND UNDER 5 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON AREA OBSERVATIONS...ALL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
ENDED...AND AS NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCOMING
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THERE WILL BE NO MARINE ISSUES. WINDS REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ALSO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 181115
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
615 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...SUNSHINE...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

UPPER AND SFC LOWS ARE IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK
FLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DRYING HAS ALREADY SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING BACK ALONG RESIDUAL LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROUGHING. THIS SQUASHED THE SNOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
LEFT SOME WEAK/VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN NNW/NORTH FLOW REGIMES. WE
ARE EVEN SEEING THIS SNOW GET SEVERELY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF THE DRIER AIR IS RIGHT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN...AND IS SEEN VIA LATEST SATELLITE...WITH CLEARING ALREADY
PUNCHING THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND EVEN PARTS OF FAR NRN LOWER. THIS
IS IN CONTRAST TO WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN UPPER WHERE THE
STRATUS IS ACTUALLY EXPANDING WEST/NW OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS IN EASTERN UPPER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTH TODAY...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONGER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS. LATEST SATELLITE AND DATA SUGGEST NOTHING TO STOP
THIS STRONGER PUSH OF DRYING AIR. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL TAKE LONGEST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES WHERE
CONTINUED OVERLAKE INSTABILITY HELP FEED OFF THE LAKES. THAT
SAID...WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTINUALLY MINIMIZE ANY
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE WATER. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGES: CLOUD COVER.

OVERVIEW(ANALYSIS AND FORECAST)...SEMI-BLOCKY PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO, AND THE LOWS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE REGION. THIS BLOCKY PATTERN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
AND MOVE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SATURDAY) AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND (SUNDAY).

(12/19)FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE
DRY AIR AT 850 MB AND IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER (RH<30% IN BOTH), WILL
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, THE CAVEAT
HAS BEEN THAT THE MODELS KEEP FLIP-FLOPPING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION. AT THIS POINT, THE MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, NAM)
ARE ALL SHOWING DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THIS HAPPENS. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS. OVERNIGHT MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC, IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE, WE COULD HAVE ISSUES WITH LOW
STRATUS/FOG IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION THAT WILL PROBABLY FORM UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS AND INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE THE OPTIMISM.

(12/20)SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF WHATEVER HAPPENS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LIGHT FLOW WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR
ANYTHING OUT THAT DOES FORM FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE IF IT IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, THEN THE DAY WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...CLEARING EVENTUALLY...

DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL EAT AWAY AT THE PESKY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE ALSO KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS VERY
LIGHT. VSBYS ONLY TEMPORARILY INTO MVFR AROUND MBL THIS MORNING.
TOTAL CLEARING DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...AND UNDER 5 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON AREA OBSERVATIONS...ALL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
ENDED...AND AS NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCOMING
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THERE WILL BE NO MARINE ISSUES. WINDS REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ALSO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KMQT 181017
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE...A 1029MB SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
MINNESOTA WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT LED TO THE SNOW YESTERDAY
IS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH HAS PULLED
DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES THIS PAST EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE SPOTS WHERE
THE CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT...GENERALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND ALSO IT/S STARTING TO OVER THE EAST. WHERE SKIES CLEARED
OUT...3AM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO (6
DEGREES AT KCMX)...WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. STILL SEEING LIGHT
FLURRIES HERE AT OUR OFFICE AT 330AM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
TODAY...EXPECT CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FIRST THE LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DIMINISHMENT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE LOW
CLOUDS...KMQT VWP INDICATES CLOUD TOPS AROUND 2.5KFT...WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE INVERSION INDICATED ON THE MODELS AT
900MB. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THEY DISSIPATE TODAY. AT
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND LIMITED
MIXING...THERE IS LITTLE DAY TIME HELP AND WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS WHERE
THE MODELS TEND TO DIFFER. THE 00Z NAM HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THINK THAT
IS LARGELY TIED TO IT TRADITIONALLY OVER DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THAT APPEARS TO THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE IT HAS THE LOW
CLOUDS JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY BEING MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND SUPPOSEDLY ENTERING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME.
THE RECENT RAP (ALONG WITH THE HRRR) RUNS ALSO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THEM OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
APPEARS TO HAVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
RUNS...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THEY HOLD ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING
AND THEN SCATTER THEM OUT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT FOR THE CLOUD
COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MEANWHILE OVER THE EAST...THE ADVECTION
OF THE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE UPSLOPE HELP SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THAT DRY
AIR HAS ALREADY SCATTERED THE CLOUDS OUT OVER LUCE COUNTY AND
STARTING TO SEE IT WORK INTO ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF GOING AT OR BELOW THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE. THE GEM MODELS USUALLY PERFORM WELL IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS AND THEY HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS WHERE THEY ARE NOT INDICATING CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL
GEM REDEVELOPS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT). THUS...HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH KCMX DROPPING TO 6
DEGREES AT 3AM THIS MORNING...THAT SUPPORTS TO EXPECTATIONS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS EXPECTED DROP IN TEMPS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR AT LEAST SOME SOLID FROST. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER TEENS TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP THROUGH THOSE
VALUES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS THIS PAST EVENING AT KCMX WERE
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THEIR QUICK TEMP DROP AND LIGHT WINDS...THEY HAVEN/T
EXPERIENCED ANY FOG AT THIS POINT...BUT THE ICE ACCRETION ALGORITHM
DID INDICATE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THAT QUICK
DROP AND IN TURN SOME QUICK/HARD FROST ON THE SENSOR. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY VERY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS AT KCMX OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AS IT WILL FORESHADOW WHAT WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY...A DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER MOISTURE
BENEATH THE PROMINENT 925 MB INVERSION WILL LINGER ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S.

FRI NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING BUT MAY
REBOUND LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING 850 MB WAA AND
ASSOCIATED 280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WITH THE MID LEVEL REMAINING
DRY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN LAKES...SRLY WINDS
WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX READINGS CLIMB TO AROUND 30 DESPITE THE
THICKENING CLOUDS.

SUN...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...THE
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW.
THE DYNAMICS REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
CONTINUED WAA WILL NUDGE MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

MON-WED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF HOW THE SHORTWAVES DIVING
INTO THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT AND HOW THAT WILL INFLUENCE
THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE SFC FEATURES. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE
FROM MON INTO MON NIGHT AS THE INITIAL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TO BRING POTENTIAL FOR
SOME RAIN INTO THE EAST HALF. THE PREFERRED/MORE CONSISTENT 00Z/12Z
ECMWF KEEP THE LOW AND WARMER AIR SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...MINIMIZING CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE LARGER DISPARITIES DEVELOP
BY WED WITH THE HANDLING OF A STRONGER SHRTWV THAT WOULD SUPPORT
RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW. THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE
BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE CNTRL LAKE AND
THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY AND HAVE SHIFTED THE STRONGER LOW
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE THE MODELS REVERT BACK TO THE STRONGER LOW THROUGH LOWER MI. WITH
SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND HIGH ENSEMBLE/MODEL SPREAD...THE FCST
MAINTAINS HIGHER END SNOW CHANCES BUT WITH LESS EMPHASIS FOR NOW ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS UNTIL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AT KCMX AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD AND
KSAW...BUT LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AT BOTH
SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OUT OF THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER. RISK OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AT MAINLY KSAW AND POSSIBLY
KCMX. DID LEAVE OUT OF TAFS ATTM THOUGH AS GREATEST CHANCE OF VSBY
REDUCTION AND ICE DEPOSITION SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER END OF TAF
PERIOD LATER ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15KTS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A NEARLY
STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND GENERALLY
UNDER 20KTS. THIS TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 181017
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE...A 1029MB SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
MINNESOTA WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT LED TO THE SNOW YESTERDAY
IS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH HAS PULLED
DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES THIS PAST EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE SPOTS WHERE
THE CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT...GENERALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND ALSO IT/S STARTING TO OVER THE EAST. WHERE SKIES CLEARED
OUT...3AM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO (6
DEGREES AT KCMX)...WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. STILL SEEING LIGHT
FLURRIES HERE AT OUR OFFICE AT 330AM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
TODAY...EXPECT CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FIRST THE LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DIMINISHMENT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE LOW
CLOUDS...KMQT VWP INDICATES CLOUD TOPS AROUND 2.5KFT...WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE INVERSION INDICATED ON THE MODELS AT
900MB. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THEY DISSIPATE TODAY. AT
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND LIMITED
MIXING...THERE IS LITTLE DAY TIME HELP AND WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS WHERE
THE MODELS TEND TO DIFFER. THE 00Z NAM HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THINK THAT
IS LARGELY TIED TO IT TRADITIONALLY OVER DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THAT APPEARS TO THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE IT HAS THE LOW
CLOUDS JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY BEING MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND SUPPOSEDLY ENTERING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME.
THE RECENT RAP (ALONG WITH THE HRRR) RUNS ALSO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THEM OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
APPEARS TO HAVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
RUNS...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THEY HOLD ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING
AND THEN SCATTER THEM OUT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT FOR THE CLOUD
COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MEANWHILE OVER THE EAST...THE ADVECTION
OF THE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE UPSLOPE HELP SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THAT DRY
AIR HAS ALREADY SCATTERED THE CLOUDS OUT OVER LUCE COUNTY AND
STARTING TO SEE IT WORK INTO ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF GOING AT OR BELOW THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE. THE GEM MODELS USUALLY PERFORM WELL IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS AND THEY HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS WHERE THEY ARE NOT INDICATING CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL
GEM REDEVELOPS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT). THUS...HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH KCMX DROPPING TO 6
DEGREES AT 3AM THIS MORNING...THAT SUPPORTS TO EXPECTATIONS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS EXPECTED DROP IN TEMPS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR AT LEAST SOME SOLID FROST. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER TEENS TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP THROUGH THOSE
VALUES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS THIS PAST EVENING AT KCMX WERE
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THEIR QUICK TEMP DROP AND LIGHT WINDS...THEY HAVEN/T
EXPERIENCED ANY FOG AT THIS POINT...BUT THE ICE ACCRETION ALGORITHM
DID INDICATE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THAT QUICK
DROP AND IN TURN SOME QUICK/HARD FROST ON THE SENSOR. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY VERY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS AT KCMX OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AS IT WILL FORESHADOW WHAT WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY...A DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER MOISTURE
BENEATH THE PROMINENT 925 MB INVERSION WILL LINGER ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S.

FRI NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING BUT MAY
REBOUND LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING 850 MB WAA AND
ASSOCIATED 280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WITH THE MID LEVEL REMAINING
DRY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN LAKES...SRLY WINDS
WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX READINGS CLIMB TO AROUND 30 DESPITE THE
THICKENING CLOUDS.

SUN...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...THE
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW.
THE DYNAMICS REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
CONTINUED WAA WILL NUDGE MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

MON-WED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF HOW THE SHORTWAVES DIVING
INTO THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT AND HOW THAT WILL INFLUENCE
THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE SFC FEATURES. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE
FROM MON INTO MON NIGHT AS THE INITIAL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TO BRING POTENTIAL FOR
SOME RAIN INTO THE EAST HALF. THE PREFERRED/MORE CONSISTENT 00Z/12Z
ECMWF KEEP THE LOW AND WARMER AIR SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...MINIMIZING CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE LARGER DISPARITIES DEVELOP
BY WED WITH THE HANDLING OF A STRONGER SHRTWV THAT WOULD SUPPORT
RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW. THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE
BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE CNTRL LAKE AND
THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY AND HAVE SHIFTED THE STRONGER LOW
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE THE MODELS REVERT BACK TO THE STRONGER LOW THROUGH LOWER MI. WITH
SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND HIGH ENSEMBLE/MODEL SPREAD...THE FCST
MAINTAINS HIGHER END SNOW CHANCES BUT WITH LESS EMPHASIS FOR NOW ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS UNTIL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AT KCMX AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD AND
KSAW...BUT LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AT BOTH
SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OUT OF THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER. RISK OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AT MAINLY KSAW AND POSSIBLY
KCMX. DID LEAVE OUT OF TAFS ATTM THOUGH AS GREATEST CHANCE OF VSBY
REDUCTION AND ICE DEPOSITION SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER END OF TAF
PERIOD LATER ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15KTS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A NEARLY
STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND GENERALLY
UNDER 20KTS. THIS TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 180903
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE...A 1029MB SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
MINNESOTA WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT LED TO THE SNOW YESTERDAY
IS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH HAS PULLED
DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES THIS PAST EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE SPOTS WHERE
THE CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT...GENERALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND ALSO IT/S STARTING TO OVER THE EAST. WHERE SKIES CLEARED
OUT...3AM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO (6
DEGREES AT KCMX)...WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. STILL SEEING LIGHT
FLURRIES HERE AT OUR OFFICE AT 330AM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
TODAY...EXPECT CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FIRST THE LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DIMINISHMENT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE LOW
CLOUDS...KMQT VWP INDICATES CLOUD TOPS AROUND 2.5KFT...WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE INVERSION INDICATED ON THE MODELS AT
900MB. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THEY DISSIPATE TODAY. AT
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND LIMITED
MIXING...THERE IS LITTLE DAY TIME HELP AND WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS WHERE
THE MODELS TEND TO DIFFER. THE 00Z NAM HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THINK THAT
IS LARGELY TIED TO IT TRADITIONALLY OVER DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THAT APPEARS TO THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE IT HAS THE LOW
CLOUDS JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY BEING MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND SUPPOSEDLY ENTERING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME.
THE RECENT RAP (ALONG WITH THE HRRR) RUNS ALSO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THEM OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
APPEARS TO HAVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
RUNS...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THEY HOLD ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING
AND THEN SCATTER THEM OUT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT FOR THE CLOUD
COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MEANWHILE OVER THE EAST...THE ADVECTION
OF THE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE UPSLOPE HELP SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THAT DRY
AIR HAS ALREADY SCATTERED THE CLOUDS OUT OVER LUCE COUNTY AND
STARTING TO SEE IT WORK INTO ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF GOING AT OR BELOW THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE. THE GEM MODELS USUALLY PERFORM WELL IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS AND THEY HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS WHERE THEY ARE NOT INDICATING CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL
GEM REDEVELOPS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT). THUS...HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH KCMX DROPPING TO 6
DEGREES AT 3AM THIS MORNING...THAT SUPPORTS TO EXPECTATIONS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS EXPECTED DROP IN TEMPS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR AT LEAST SOME SOLID FROST. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER TEENS TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP THROUGH THOSE
VALUES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS THIS PAST EVENING AT KCMX WERE
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THEIR QUICK TEMP DROP AND LIGHT WINDS...THEY HAVEN/T
EXPERIENCED ANY FOG AT THIS POINT...BUT THE ICE ACCRETION ALGORITHM
DID INDICATE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THAT QUICK
DROP AND IN TURN SOME QUICK/HARD FROST ON THE SENSOR. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY VERY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS AT KCMX OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AS IT WILL FORESHADOW WHAT WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AT KCMX AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD AND
KSAW...BUT LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AT BOTH
SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OUT OF THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER. RISK OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AT MAINLY KSAW AND POSSIBLY
KCMX. DID LEAVE OUT OF TAFS ATTM THOUGH AS GREATEST CHANCE OF VSBY
REDUCTION AND ICE DEPOSITION SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER END OF TAF
PERIOD LATER ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15KTS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A NEARLY
STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND GENERALLY
UNDER 20KTS. THIS TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 180903
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE...A 1029MB SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
MINNESOTA WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT LED TO THE SNOW YESTERDAY
IS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH HAS PULLED
DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES THIS PAST EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE SPOTS WHERE
THE CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT...GENERALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND ALSO IT/S STARTING TO OVER THE EAST. WHERE SKIES CLEARED
OUT...3AM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO (6
DEGREES AT KCMX)...WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. STILL SEEING LIGHT
FLURRIES HERE AT OUR OFFICE AT 330AM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
TODAY...EXPECT CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FIRST THE LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DIMINISHMENT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE LOW
CLOUDS...KMQT VWP INDICATES CLOUD TOPS AROUND 2.5KFT...WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE INVERSION INDICATED ON THE MODELS AT
900MB. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THEY DISSIPATE TODAY. AT
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND LIMITED
MIXING...THERE IS LITTLE DAY TIME HELP AND WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS WHERE
THE MODELS TEND TO DIFFER. THE 00Z NAM HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THINK THAT
IS LARGELY TIED TO IT TRADITIONALLY OVER DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THAT APPEARS TO THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE IT HAS THE LOW
CLOUDS JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY BEING MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND SUPPOSEDLY ENTERING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME.
THE RECENT RAP (ALONG WITH THE HRRR) RUNS ALSO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THEM OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
APPEARS TO HAVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
RUNS...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THEY HOLD ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING
AND THEN SCATTER THEM OUT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT FOR THE CLOUD
COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MEANWHILE OVER THE EAST...THE ADVECTION
OF THE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE UPSLOPE HELP SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THAT DRY
AIR HAS ALREADY SCATTERED THE CLOUDS OUT OVER LUCE COUNTY AND
STARTING TO SEE IT WORK INTO ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF GOING AT OR BELOW THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE. THE GEM MODELS USUALLY PERFORM WELL IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS AND THEY HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS WHERE THEY ARE NOT INDICATING CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL
GEM REDEVELOPS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT). THUS...HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH KCMX DROPPING TO 6
DEGREES AT 3AM THIS MORNING...THAT SUPPORTS TO EXPECTATIONS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS EXPECTED DROP IN TEMPS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR AT LEAST SOME SOLID FROST. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER TEENS TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP THROUGH THOSE
VALUES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS THIS PAST EVENING AT KCMX WERE
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THEIR QUICK TEMP DROP AND LIGHT WINDS...THEY HAVEN/T
EXPERIENCED ANY FOG AT THIS POINT...BUT THE ICE ACCRETION ALGORITHM
DID INDICATE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THAT QUICK
DROP AND IN TURN SOME QUICK/HARD FROST ON THE SENSOR. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY VERY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS AT KCMX OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AS IT WILL FORESHADOW WHAT WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AT KCMX AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD AND
KSAW...BUT LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AT BOTH
SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OUT OF THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER. RISK OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AT MAINLY KSAW AND POSSIBLY
KCMX. DID LEAVE OUT OF TAFS ATTM THOUGH AS GREATEST CHANCE OF VSBY
REDUCTION AND ICE DEPOSITION SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER END OF TAF
PERIOD LATER ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15KTS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A NEARLY
STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND GENERALLY
UNDER 20KTS. THIS TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 180903
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE...A 1029MB SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
MINNESOTA WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT LED TO THE SNOW YESTERDAY
IS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH HAS PULLED
DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES THIS PAST EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE SPOTS WHERE
THE CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT...GENERALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND ALSO IT/S STARTING TO OVER THE EAST. WHERE SKIES CLEARED
OUT...3AM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO (6
DEGREES AT KCMX)...WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. STILL SEEING LIGHT
FLURRIES HERE AT OUR OFFICE AT 330AM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
TODAY...EXPECT CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FIRST THE LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DIMINISHMENT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE LOW
CLOUDS...KMQT VWP INDICATES CLOUD TOPS AROUND 2.5KFT...WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE INVERSION INDICATED ON THE MODELS AT
900MB. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THEY DISSIPATE TODAY. AT
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND LIMITED
MIXING...THERE IS LITTLE DAY TIME HELP AND WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS WHERE
THE MODELS TEND TO DIFFER. THE 00Z NAM HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THINK THAT
IS LARGELY TIED TO IT TRADITIONALLY OVER DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THAT APPEARS TO THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE IT HAS THE LOW
CLOUDS JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY BEING MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND SUPPOSEDLY ENTERING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME.
THE RECENT RAP (ALONG WITH THE HRRR) RUNS ALSO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THEM OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
APPEARS TO HAVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
RUNS...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THEY HOLD ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING
AND THEN SCATTER THEM OUT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT FOR THE CLOUD
COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MEANWHILE OVER THE EAST...THE ADVECTION
OF THE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE UPSLOPE HELP SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THAT DRY
AIR HAS ALREADY SCATTERED THE CLOUDS OUT OVER LUCE COUNTY AND
STARTING TO SEE IT WORK INTO ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF GOING AT OR BELOW THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE. THE GEM MODELS USUALLY PERFORM WELL IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS AND THEY HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS WHERE THEY ARE NOT INDICATING CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL
GEM REDEVELOPS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT). THUS...HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH KCMX DROPPING TO 6
DEGREES AT 3AM THIS MORNING...THAT SUPPORTS TO EXPECTATIONS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS EXPECTED DROP IN TEMPS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR AT LEAST SOME SOLID FROST. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER TEENS TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP THROUGH THOSE
VALUES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS THIS PAST EVENING AT KCMX WERE
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THEIR QUICK TEMP DROP AND LIGHT WINDS...THEY HAVEN/T
EXPERIENCED ANY FOG AT THIS POINT...BUT THE ICE ACCRETION ALGORITHM
DID INDICATE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THAT QUICK
DROP AND IN TURN SOME QUICK/HARD FROST ON THE SENSOR. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY VERY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS AT KCMX OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AS IT WILL FORESHADOW WHAT WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AT KCMX AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD AND
KSAW...BUT LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AT BOTH
SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OUT OF THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER. RISK OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AT MAINLY KSAW AND POSSIBLY
KCMX. DID LEAVE OUT OF TAFS ATTM THOUGH AS GREATEST CHANCE OF VSBY
REDUCTION AND ICE DEPOSITION SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER END OF TAF
PERIOD LATER ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15KTS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A NEARLY
STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND GENERALLY
UNDER 20KTS. THIS TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 180903
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE...A 1029MB SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
MINNESOTA WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT LED TO THE SNOW YESTERDAY
IS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH HAS PULLED
DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES THIS PAST EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE SPOTS WHERE
THE CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT...GENERALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND ALSO IT/S STARTING TO OVER THE EAST. WHERE SKIES CLEARED
OUT...3AM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO (6
DEGREES AT KCMX)...WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. STILL SEEING LIGHT
FLURRIES HERE AT OUR OFFICE AT 330AM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
TODAY...EXPECT CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FIRST THE LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DIMINISHMENT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE LOW
CLOUDS...KMQT VWP INDICATES CLOUD TOPS AROUND 2.5KFT...WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE INVERSION INDICATED ON THE MODELS AT
900MB. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THEY DISSIPATE TODAY. AT
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND LIMITED
MIXING...THERE IS LITTLE DAY TIME HELP AND WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS WHERE
THE MODELS TEND TO DIFFER. THE 00Z NAM HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THINK THAT
IS LARGELY TIED TO IT TRADITIONALLY OVER DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THAT APPEARS TO THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE IT HAS THE LOW
CLOUDS JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY BEING MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND SUPPOSEDLY ENTERING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME.
THE RECENT RAP (ALONG WITH THE HRRR) RUNS ALSO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THEM OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
APPEARS TO HAVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
RUNS...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THEY HOLD ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING
AND THEN SCATTER THEM OUT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT FOR THE CLOUD
COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MEANWHILE OVER THE EAST...THE ADVECTION
OF THE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE UPSLOPE HELP SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THAT DRY
AIR HAS ALREADY SCATTERED THE CLOUDS OUT OVER LUCE COUNTY AND
STARTING TO SEE IT WORK INTO ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF GOING AT OR BELOW THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE. THE GEM MODELS USUALLY PERFORM WELL IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS AND THEY HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS WHERE THEY ARE NOT INDICATING CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL
GEM REDEVELOPS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT). THUS...HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH KCMX DROPPING TO 6
DEGREES AT 3AM THIS MORNING...THAT SUPPORTS TO EXPECTATIONS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS EXPECTED DROP IN TEMPS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR AT LEAST SOME SOLID FROST. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER TEENS TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP THROUGH THOSE
VALUES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS THIS PAST EVENING AT KCMX WERE
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THEIR QUICK TEMP DROP AND LIGHT WINDS...THEY HAVEN/T
EXPERIENCED ANY FOG AT THIS POINT...BUT THE ICE ACCRETION ALGORITHM
DID INDICATE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THAT QUICK
DROP AND IN TURN SOME QUICK/HARD FROST ON THE SENSOR. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY VERY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS AT KCMX OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AS IT WILL FORESHADOW WHAT WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AT KCMX AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD AND
KSAW...BUT LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AT BOTH
SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OUT OF THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER. RISK OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AT MAINLY KSAW AND POSSIBLY
KCMX. DID LEAVE OUT OF TAFS ATTM THOUGH AS GREATEST CHANCE OF VSBY
REDUCTION AND ICE DEPOSITION SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER END OF TAF
PERIOD LATER ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15KTS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A NEARLY
STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND GENERALLY
UNDER 20KTS. THIS TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KDTX 180847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS OBSERVED HERE
LOCALLY TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN A
FEW THUMB LOCATIONS TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
CORRESPONDING LOSS OF SHEAR AT THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO TAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
START THE DAY WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY. 00Z OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT ABOUT 900 MB THAT WILL PREVENT MIXING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ANY RESULTING CLOUD EROSION. THE
INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE THUMB IS KEPT IN MIND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TOWARD THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CANADIAN RADAR
IN EXETER INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING SOME MODEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW CONVECTIVE DEPTH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB WITH
DELTA THETA-E NEAR 4K OR LI ABOUT -1C. THERE IS ALSO SOME SEEDING OF
THE DGZ FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STRIPPING AWAY DURING
THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND BEFORE THE
WIND STARTS TO VEER. THEN...BY TONIGHT...DRY AIR COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DGZ AND FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO 900 MB/3000 FEET OR LESS WHILE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE LAYER DECREASES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY NOT EVEN BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED LINGERING
STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION.  HOWEVER RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RECENT
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ONLY
BY THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NOTED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL AND
RAPIDLY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS IT GETS REINFORCEMENTS FROM A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGEOVER THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOWFALL ONCE THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
HEAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
COULD CERTAINLY BOOST VALUES SOME IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS BECOME
VIGOROUS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM PLAYING
OUT IN THIS GENERAL SENSE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT PHASES THE SYSTEMS QUICKER AND DEEPENS THE
LOW SOONER THAN THE ECMWF.  FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.  WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.  THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A RENEWED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING.
THESE TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FALL BELOW 2000 FT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED WELL INTO THURSDAY PER RECENT MODEL SOUNDING
DATA.  MODEST WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM TRENDS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.  MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CIGS BELOW 2000 FT
THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 180847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS OBSERVED HERE
LOCALLY TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN A
FEW THUMB LOCATIONS TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
CORRESPONDING LOSS OF SHEAR AT THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO TAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
START THE DAY WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY. 00Z OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT ABOUT 900 MB THAT WILL PREVENT MIXING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ANY RESULTING CLOUD EROSION. THE
INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE THUMB IS KEPT IN MIND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TOWARD THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CANADIAN RADAR
IN EXETER INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING SOME MODEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW CONVECTIVE DEPTH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB WITH
DELTA THETA-E NEAR 4K OR LI ABOUT -1C. THERE IS ALSO SOME SEEDING OF
THE DGZ FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STRIPPING AWAY DURING
THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND BEFORE THE
WIND STARTS TO VEER. THEN...BY TONIGHT...DRY AIR COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DGZ AND FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO 900 MB/3000 FEET OR LESS WHILE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE LAYER DECREASES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY NOT EVEN BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED LINGERING
STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION.  HOWEVER RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RECENT
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ONLY
BY THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NOTED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL AND
RAPIDLY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS IT GETS REINFORCEMENTS FROM A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGEOVER THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOWFALL ONCE THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
HEAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
COULD CERTAINLY BOOST VALUES SOME IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS BECOME
VIGOROUS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM PLAYING
OUT IN THIS GENERAL SENSE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT PHASES THE SYSTEMS QUICKER AND DEEPENS THE
LOW SOONER THAN THE ECMWF.  FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.  WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.  THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A RENEWED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING.
THESE TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FALL BELOW 2000 FT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED WELL INTO THURSDAY PER RECENT MODEL SOUNDING
DATA.  MODEST WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM TRENDS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.  MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CIGS BELOW 2000 FT
THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 180847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS OBSERVED HERE
LOCALLY TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN A
FEW THUMB LOCATIONS TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
CORRESPONDING LOSS OF SHEAR AT THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO TAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
START THE DAY WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY. 00Z OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT ABOUT 900 MB THAT WILL PREVENT MIXING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ANY RESULTING CLOUD EROSION. THE
INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE THUMB IS KEPT IN MIND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TOWARD THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CANADIAN RADAR
IN EXETER INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING SOME MODEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW CONVECTIVE DEPTH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB WITH
DELTA THETA-E NEAR 4K OR LI ABOUT -1C. THERE IS ALSO SOME SEEDING OF
THE DGZ FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STRIPPING AWAY DURING
THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND BEFORE THE
WIND STARTS TO VEER. THEN...BY TONIGHT...DRY AIR COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DGZ AND FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO 900 MB/3000 FEET OR LESS WHILE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE LAYER DECREASES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY NOT EVEN BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED LINGERING
STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION.  HOWEVER RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RECENT
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ONLY
BY THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NOTED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL AND
RAPIDLY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS IT GETS REINFORCEMENTS FROM A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGEOVER THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOWFALL ONCE THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
HEAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
COULD CERTAINLY BOOST VALUES SOME IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS BECOME
VIGOROUS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM PLAYING
OUT IN THIS GENERAL SENSE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT PHASES THE SYSTEMS QUICKER AND DEEPENS THE
LOW SOONER THAN THE ECMWF.  FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.  WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.  THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A RENEWED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING.
THESE TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FALL BELOW 2000 FT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED WELL INTO THURSDAY PER RECENT MODEL SOUNDING
DATA.  MODEST WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM TRENDS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.  MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CIGS BELOW 2000 FT
THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 180847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS OBSERVED HERE
LOCALLY TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN A
FEW THUMB LOCATIONS TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
CORRESPONDING LOSS OF SHEAR AT THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO TAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
START THE DAY WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY. 00Z OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT ABOUT 900 MB THAT WILL PREVENT MIXING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ANY RESULTING CLOUD EROSION. THE
INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE THUMB IS KEPT IN MIND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TOWARD THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CANADIAN RADAR
IN EXETER INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING SOME MODEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW CONVECTIVE DEPTH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB WITH
DELTA THETA-E NEAR 4K OR LI ABOUT -1C. THERE IS ALSO SOME SEEDING OF
THE DGZ FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STRIPPING AWAY DURING
THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND BEFORE THE
WIND STARTS TO VEER. THEN...BY TONIGHT...DRY AIR COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DGZ AND FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO 900 MB/3000 FEET OR LESS WHILE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE LAYER DECREASES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY NOT EVEN BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED LINGERING
STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION.  HOWEVER RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RECENT
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ONLY
BY THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NOTED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL AND
RAPIDLY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS IT GETS REINFORCEMENTS FROM A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGEOVER THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOWFALL ONCE THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
HEAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
COULD CERTAINLY BOOST VALUES SOME IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS BECOME
VIGOROUS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM PLAYING
OUT IN THIS GENERAL SENSE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT PHASES THE SYSTEMS QUICKER AND DEEPENS THE
LOW SOONER THAN THE ECMWF.  FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.  WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.  THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A RENEWED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING.
THESE TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FALL BELOW 2000 FT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED WELL INTO THURSDAY PER RECENT MODEL SOUNDING
DATA.  MODEST WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM TRENDS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.  MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CIGS BELOW 2000 FT
THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 180847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS OBSERVED HERE
LOCALLY TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN A
FEW THUMB LOCATIONS TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
CORRESPONDING LOSS OF SHEAR AT THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO TAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
START THE DAY WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY. 00Z OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT ABOUT 900 MB THAT WILL PREVENT MIXING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ANY RESULTING CLOUD EROSION. THE
INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE THUMB IS KEPT IN MIND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TOWARD THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CANADIAN RADAR
IN EXETER INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING SOME MODEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW CONVECTIVE DEPTH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB WITH
DELTA THETA-E NEAR 4K OR LI ABOUT -1C. THERE IS ALSO SOME SEEDING OF
THE DGZ FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STRIPPING AWAY DURING
THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND BEFORE THE
WIND STARTS TO VEER. THEN...BY TONIGHT...DRY AIR COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DGZ AND FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO 900 MB/3000 FEET OR LESS WHILE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE LAYER DECREASES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY NOT EVEN BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED LINGERING
STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION.  HOWEVER RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RECENT
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ONLY
BY THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NOTED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL AND
RAPIDLY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS IT GETS REINFORCEMENTS FROM A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGEOVER THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOWFALL ONCE THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
HEAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
COULD CERTAINLY BOOST VALUES SOME IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS BECOME
VIGOROUS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM PLAYING
OUT IN THIS GENERAL SENSE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT PHASES THE SYSTEMS QUICKER AND DEEPENS THE
LOW SOONER THAN THE ECMWF.  FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.  WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.  THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A RENEWED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING.
THESE TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FALL BELOW 2000 FT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED WELL INTO THURSDAY PER RECENT MODEL SOUNDING
DATA.  MODEST WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM TRENDS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.  MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CIGS BELOW 2000 FT
THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 180847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS OBSERVED HERE
LOCALLY TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN A
FEW THUMB LOCATIONS TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
CORRESPONDING LOSS OF SHEAR AT THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO TAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
START THE DAY WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY. 00Z OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT ABOUT 900 MB THAT WILL PREVENT MIXING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ANY RESULTING CLOUD EROSION. THE
INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE THUMB IS KEPT IN MIND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TOWARD THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CANADIAN RADAR
IN EXETER INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING SOME MODEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW CONVECTIVE DEPTH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB WITH
DELTA THETA-E NEAR 4K OR LI ABOUT -1C. THERE IS ALSO SOME SEEDING OF
THE DGZ FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STRIPPING AWAY DURING
THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND BEFORE THE
WIND STARTS TO VEER. THEN...BY TONIGHT...DRY AIR COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DGZ AND FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO 900 MB/3000 FEET OR LESS WHILE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE LAYER DECREASES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY NOT EVEN BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED LINGERING
STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION.  HOWEVER RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RECENT
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ONLY
BY THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NOTED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL AND
RAPIDLY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS IT GETS REINFORCEMENTS FROM A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGEOVER THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOWFALL ONCE THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
HEAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
COULD CERTAINLY BOOST VALUES SOME IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS BECOME
VIGOROUS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM PLAYING
OUT IN THIS GENERAL SENSE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT PHASES THE SYSTEMS QUICKER AND DEEPENS THE
LOW SOONER THAN THE ECMWF.  FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.  WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.  THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A RENEWED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING.
THESE TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FALL BELOW 2000 FT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED WELL INTO THURSDAY PER RECENT MODEL SOUNDING
DATA.  MODEST WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM TRENDS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.  MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CIGS BELOW 2000 FT
THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 180847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS OBSERVED HERE
LOCALLY TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN A
FEW THUMB LOCATIONS TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
CORRESPONDING LOSS OF SHEAR AT THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO TAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
START THE DAY WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY. 00Z OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT ABOUT 900 MB THAT WILL PREVENT MIXING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ANY RESULTING CLOUD EROSION. THE
INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE THUMB IS KEPT IN MIND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TOWARD THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CANADIAN RADAR
IN EXETER INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING SOME MODEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW CONVECTIVE DEPTH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB WITH
DELTA THETA-E NEAR 4K OR LI ABOUT -1C. THERE IS ALSO SOME SEEDING OF
THE DGZ FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STRIPPING AWAY DURING
THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND BEFORE THE
WIND STARTS TO VEER. THEN...BY TONIGHT...DRY AIR COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DGZ AND FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO 900 MB/3000 FEET OR LESS WHILE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE LAYER DECREASES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY NOT EVEN BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED LINGERING
STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION.  HOWEVER RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RECENT
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ONLY
BY THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NOTED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL AND
RAPIDLY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS IT GETS REINFORCEMENTS FROM A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGEOVER THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOWFALL ONCE THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
HEAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
COULD CERTAINLY BOOST VALUES SOME IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS BECOME
VIGOROUS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM PLAYING
OUT IN THIS GENERAL SENSE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT PHASES THE SYSTEMS QUICKER AND DEEPENS THE
LOW SOONER THAN THE ECMWF.  FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.  WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.  THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A RENEWED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING.
THESE TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FALL BELOW 2000 FT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED WELL INTO THURSDAY PER RECENT MODEL SOUNDING
DATA.  MODEST WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM TRENDS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.  MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CIGS BELOW 2000 FT
THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 180847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS OBSERVED HERE
LOCALLY TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN A
FEW THUMB LOCATIONS TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
CORRESPONDING LOSS OF SHEAR AT THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO TAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
START THE DAY WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY. 00Z OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT ABOUT 900 MB THAT WILL PREVENT MIXING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ANY RESULTING CLOUD EROSION. THE
INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE THUMB IS KEPT IN MIND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TOWARD THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CANADIAN RADAR
IN EXETER INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING SOME MODEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW CONVECTIVE DEPTH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB WITH
DELTA THETA-E NEAR 4K OR LI ABOUT -1C. THERE IS ALSO SOME SEEDING OF
THE DGZ FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STRIPPING AWAY DURING
THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND BEFORE THE
WIND STARTS TO VEER. THEN...BY TONIGHT...DRY AIR COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DGZ AND FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO 900 MB/3000 FEET OR LESS WHILE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE LAYER DECREASES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY NOT EVEN BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED LINGERING
STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION.  HOWEVER RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND RECENT
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED ONLY
BY THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST PART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NOTED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL AND
RAPIDLY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS IT GETS REINFORCEMENTS FROM A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGEOVER THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOWFALL ONCE THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
HEAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
COULD CERTAINLY BOOST VALUES SOME IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS BECOME
VIGOROUS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM PLAYING
OUT IN THIS GENERAL SENSE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT PHASES THE SYSTEMS QUICKER AND DEEPENS THE
LOW SOONER THAN THE ECMWF.  FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.  WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.  THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A RENEWED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING.
THESE TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FALL BELOW 2000 FT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED WELL INTO THURSDAY PER RECENT MODEL SOUNDING
DATA.  MODEST WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM TRENDS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.  MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CIGS BELOW 2000 FT
THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KGRR 180830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 180830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 180830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 180830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO





000
FXUS63 KAPX 180748
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
248 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...SUNSHINE...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

UPPER AND SFC LOWS ARE IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK
FLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DRYING HAS ALREADY SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING BACK ALONG RESIDUAL LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROUGHING. THIS SQUASHED THE SNOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
LEFT SOME WEAK/VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN NNW/NORTH FLOW REGIMES. WE
ARE EVEN SEEING THIS SNOW GET SEVERELY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF THE DRIER AIR IS RIGHT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN...AND IS SEEN VIA LATEST SATELLITE...WITH CLEARING ALREADY
PUNCHING THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND EVEN PARTS OF FAR NRN LOWER. THIS
IS IN CONTRAST TO WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN UPPER WHERE THE
STRATUS IS ACTUALLY EXPANDING WEST/NW OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS IN EASTERN UPPER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTH TODAY...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONGER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS. LATEST SATELLITE AND DATA SUGGEST NOTHING TO STOP
THIS STRONGER PUSH OF DRYING AIR. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL TAKE LONGEST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES WHERE
CONTINUED OVERLAKE INSTABILITY HELP FEED OFF THE LAKES. THAT
SAID...WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTINUALLY MINIMIZE ANY
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE WATER. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGES: CLOUD COVER.

OVERVIEW(ANALYSIS AND FORECAST)...SEMI-BLOCKY PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO, AND THE LOWS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE REGION. THIS BLOCKY PATTERN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
AND MOVE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SATURDAY) AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND (SUNDAY).

(12/19)FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE
DRY AIR AT 850 MB AND IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER (RH<30% IN BOTH), WILL
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, THE CAVEAT
HAS BEEN THAT THE MODELS KEEP FLIP-FLOPPING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION. AT THIS POINT, THE MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, NAM)
ARE ALL SHOWING DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THIS HAPPENS. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS. OVERNIGHT MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC, IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE, WE COULD HAVE ISSUES WITH LOW
STRATUS/FOG IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION THAT WILL PROBABLY FORM UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS AND INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE THE OPTIMISM.

(12/20)SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF WHATEVER HAPPENS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LIGHT FLOW WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR
ANYTHING OUT THAT DOES FORM FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE IF IT IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, THEN THE DAY WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...FINALLY GONNA GET TO VFR...

DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS SQUASHED ALL SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT...WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING VFR VSBYS. SKIES ALL AREAS ARE MVFR
STILL THOUGH...BUT WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS BY DAYBREAK AT PLN...AND
THIS MORNING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRPORTS. TOTAL CLEARING
EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
WEAKENING. SOME GUSTS TO 16KTS OR SO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON AREA OBSERVATIONS...ALL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
ENDED...AND AS NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCOMING
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THERE WILL BE NO MARINE ISSUES. WINDS REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ALSO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 180748
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
248 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...SUNSHINE...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

UPPER AND SFC LOWS ARE IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK
FLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DRYING HAS ALREADY SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING BACK ALONG RESIDUAL LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROUGHING. THIS SQUASHED THE SNOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
LEFT SOME WEAK/VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN NNW/NORTH FLOW REGIMES. WE
ARE EVEN SEEING THIS SNOW GET SEVERELY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF THE DRIER AIR IS RIGHT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN...AND IS SEEN VIA LATEST SATELLITE...WITH CLEARING ALREADY
PUNCHING THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND EVEN PARTS OF FAR NRN LOWER. THIS
IS IN CONTRAST TO WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN UPPER WHERE THE
STRATUS IS ACTUALLY EXPANDING WEST/NW OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS IN EASTERN UPPER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTH TODAY...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONGER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS. LATEST SATELLITE AND DATA SUGGEST NOTHING TO STOP
THIS STRONGER PUSH OF DRYING AIR. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL TAKE LONGEST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES WHERE
CONTINUED OVERLAKE INSTABILITY HELP FEED OFF THE LAKES. THAT
SAID...WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTINUALLY MINIMIZE ANY
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE WATER. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGES: CLOUD COVER.

OVERVIEW(ANALYSIS AND FORECAST)...SEMI-BLOCKY PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO, AND THE LOWS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE REGION. THIS BLOCKY PATTERN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
AND MOVE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SATURDAY) AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND (SUNDAY).

(12/19)FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE
DRY AIR AT 850 MB AND IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER (RH<30% IN BOTH), WILL
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, THE CAVEAT
HAS BEEN THAT THE MODELS KEEP FLIP-FLOPPING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION. AT THIS POINT, THE MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, NAM)
ARE ALL SHOWING DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THIS HAPPENS. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS. OVERNIGHT MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC, IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE, WE COULD HAVE ISSUES WITH LOW
STRATUS/FOG IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION THAT WILL PROBABLY FORM UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS AND INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE THE OPTIMISM.

(12/20)SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF WHATEVER HAPPENS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LIGHT FLOW WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR
ANYTHING OUT THAT DOES FORM FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE IF IT IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, THEN THE DAY WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...FINALLY GONNA GET TO VFR...

DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS SQUASHED ALL SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT...WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING VFR VSBYS. SKIES ALL AREAS ARE MVFR
STILL THOUGH...BUT WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS BY DAYBREAK AT PLN...AND
THIS MORNING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRPORTS. TOTAL CLEARING
EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
WEAKENING. SOME GUSTS TO 16KTS OR SO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON AREA OBSERVATIONS...ALL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
ENDED...AND AS NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCOMING
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THERE WILL BE NO MARINE ISSUES. WINDS REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ALSO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 180748
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
248 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...SUNSHINE...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

UPPER AND SFC LOWS ARE IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK
FLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DRYING HAS ALREADY SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING BACK ALONG RESIDUAL LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROUGHING. THIS SQUASHED THE SNOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
LEFT SOME WEAK/VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN NNW/NORTH FLOW REGIMES. WE
ARE EVEN SEEING THIS SNOW GET SEVERELY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF THE DRIER AIR IS RIGHT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN...AND IS SEEN VIA LATEST SATELLITE...WITH CLEARING ALREADY
PUNCHING THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND EVEN PARTS OF FAR NRN LOWER. THIS
IS IN CONTRAST TO WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN UPPER WHERE THE
STRATUS IS ACTUALLY EXPANDING WEST/NW OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS IN EASTERN UPPER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTH TODAY...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONGER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS. LATEST SATELLITE AND DATA SUGGEST NOTHING TO STOP
THIS STRONGER PUSH OF DRYING AIR. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL TAKE LONGEST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES WHERE
CONTINUED OVERLAKE INSTABILITY HELP FEED OFF THE LAKES. THAT
SAID...WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTINUALLY MINIMIZE ANY
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE WATER. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGES: CLOUD COVER.

OVERVIEW(ANALYSIS AND FORECAST)...SEMI-BLOCKY PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO, AND THE LOWS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE REGION. THIS BLOCKY PATTERN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
AND MOVE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SATURDAY) AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND (SUNDAY).

(12/19)FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE
DRY AIR AT 850 MB AND IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER (RH<30% IN BOTH), WILL
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, THE CAVEAT
HAS BEEN THAT THE MODELS KEEP FLIP-FLOPPING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION. AT THIS POINT, THE MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, NAM)
ARE ALL SHOWING DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THIS HAPPENS. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS. OVERNIGHT MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC, IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE, WE COULD HAVE ISSUES WITH LOW
STRATUS/FOG IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION THAT WILL PROBABLY FORM UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS AND INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE THE OPTIMISM.

(12/20)SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF WHATEVER HAPPENS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LIGHT FLOW WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR
ANYTHING OUT THAT DOES FORM FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE IF IT IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, THEN THE DAY WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...FINALLY GONNA GET TO VFR...

DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS SQUASHED ALL SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT...WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING VFR VSBYS. SKIES ALL AREAS ARE MVFR
STILL THOUGH...BUT WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS BY DAYBREAK AT PLN...AND
THIS MORNING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRPORTS. TOTAL CLEARING
EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
WEAKENING. SOME GUSTS TO 16KTS OR SO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON AREA OBSERVATIONS...ALL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
ENDED...AND AS NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCOMING
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THERE WILL BE NO MARINE ISSUES. WINDS REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ALSO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 180748
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
248 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...SUNSHINE...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

UPPER AND SFC LOWS ARE IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK
FLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DRYING HAS ALREADY SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING BACK ALONG RESIDUAL LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROUGHING. THIS SQUASHED THE SNOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
LEFT SOME WEAK/VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN NNW/NORTH FLOW REGIMES. WE
ARE EVEN SEEING THIS SNOW GET SEVERELY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF THE DRIER AIR IS RIGHT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN...AND IS SEEN VIA LATEST SATELLITE...WITH CLEARING ALREADY
PUNCHING THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND EVEN PARTS OF FAR NRN LOWER. THIS
IS IN CONTRAST TO WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN UPPER WHERE THE
STRATUS IS ACTUALLY EXPANDING WEST/NW OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS IN EASTERN UPPER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTH TODAY...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONGER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS. LATEST SATELLITE AND DATA SUGGEST NOTHING TO STOP
THIS STRONGER PUSH OF DRYING AIR. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL TAKE LONGEST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES WHERE
CONTINUED OVERLAKE INSTABILITY HELP FEED OFF THE LAKES. THAT
SAID...WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTINUALLY MINIMIZE ANY
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE WATER. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGES: CLOUD COVER.

OVERVIEW(ANALYSIS AND FORECAST)...SEMI-BLOCKY PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO, AND THE LOWS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE REGION. THIS BLOCKY PATTERN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
AND MOVE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SATURDAY) AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND (SUNDAY).

(12/19)FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE
DRY AIR AT 850 MB AND IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER (RH<30% IN BOTH), WILL
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, THE CAVEAT
HAS BEEN THAT THE MODELS KEEP FLIP-FLOPPING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION. AT THIS POINT, THE MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, NAM)
ARE ALL SHOWING DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THIS HAPPENS. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS. OVERNIGHT MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC, IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE, WE COULD HAVE ISSUES WITH LOW
STRATUS/FOG IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION THAT WILL PROBABLY FORM UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS AND INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE THE OPTIMISM.

(12/20)SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF WHATEVER HAPPENS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LIGHT FLOW WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR
ANYTHING OUT THAT DOES FORM FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE IF IT IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, THEN THE DAY WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...FINALLY GONNA GET TO VFR...

DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS SQUASHED ALL SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT...WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING VFR VSBYS. SKIES ALL AREAS ARE MVFR
STILL THOUGH...BUT WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS BY DAYBREAK AT PLN...AND
THIS MORNING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRPORTS. TOTAL CLEARING
EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
WEAKENING. SOME GUSTS TO 16KTS OR SO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON AREA OBSERVATIONS...ALL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
ENDED...AND AS NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCOMING
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THERE WILL BE NO MARINE ISSUES. WINDS REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ALSO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 180748
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
248 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...SUNSHINE...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

UPPER AND SFC LOWS ARE IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK
FLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DRYING HAS ALREADY SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING BACK ALONG RESIDUAL LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROUGHING. THIS SQUASHED THE SNOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
LEFT SOME WEAK/VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN NNW/NORTH FLOW REGIMES. WE
ARE EVEN SEEING THIS SNOW GET SEVERELY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF THE DRIER AIR IS RIGHT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN...AND IS SEEN VIA LATEST SATELLITE...WITH CLEARING ALREADY
PUNCHING THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND EVEN PARTS OF FAR NRN LOWER. THIS
IS IN CONTRAST TO WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN UPPER WHERE THE
STRATUS IS ACTUALLY EXPANDING WEST/NW OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS IN EASTERN UPPER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTH TODAY...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONGER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS. LATEST SATELLITE AND DATA SUGGEST NOTHING TO STOP
THIS STRONGER PUSH OF DRYING AIR. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL TAKE LONGEST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES WHERE
CONTINUED OVERLAKE INSTABILITY HELP FEED OFF THE LAKES. THAT
SAID...WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTINUALLY MINIMIZE ANY
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE WATER. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGES: CLOUD COVER.

OVERVIEW(ANALYSIS AND FORECAST)...SEMI-BLOCKY PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO, AND THE LOWS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE REGION. THIS BLOCKY PATTERN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
AND MOVE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SATURDAY) AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND (SUNDAY).

(12/19)FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE
DRY AIR AT 850 MB AND IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER (RH<30% IN BOTH), WILL
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, THE CAVEAT
HAS BEEN THAT THE MODELS KEEP FLIP-FLOPPING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION. AT THIS POINT, THE MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, NAM)
ARE ALL SHOWING DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THIS HAPPENS. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS. OVERNIGHT MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC, IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE, WE COULD HAVE ISSUES WITH LOW
STRATUS/FOG IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION THAT WILL PROBABLY FORM UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS AND INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE THE OPTIMISM.

(12/20)SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF WHATEVER HAPPENS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LIGHT FLOW WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR
ANYTHING OUT THAT DOES FORM FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE IF IT IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, THEN THE DAY WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...FINALLY GONNA GET TO VFR...

DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS SQUASHED ALL SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT...WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING VFR VSBYS. SKIES ALL AREAS ARE MVFR
STILL THOUGH...BUT WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS BY DAYBREAK AT PLN...AND
THIS MORNING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRPORTS. TOTAL CLEARING
EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
WEAKENING. SOME GUSTS TO 16KTS OR SO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON AREA OBSERVATIONS...ALL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
ENDED...AND AS NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCOMING
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THERE WILL BE NO MARINE ISSUES. WINDS REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ALSO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 180748
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
248 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...SUNSHINE...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

UPPER AND SFC LOWS ARE IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK
FLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DRYING HAS ALREADY SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING BACK ALONG RESIDUAL LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROUGHING. THIS SQUASHED THE SNOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
LEFT SOME WEAK/VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN NNW/NORTH FLOW REGIMES. WE
ARE EVEN SEEING THIS SNOW GET SEVERELY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF THE DRIER AIR IS RIGHT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN...AND IS SEEN VIA LATEST SATELLITE...WITH CLEARING ALREADY
PUNCHING THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND EVEN PARTS OF FAR NRN LOWER. THIS
IS IN CONTRAST TO WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN UPPER WHERE THE
STRATUS IS ACTUALLY EXPANDING WEST/NW OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS IN EASTERN UPPER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTH TODAY...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONGER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS. LATEST SATELLITE AND DATA SUGGEST NOTHING TO STOP
THIS STRONGER PUSH OF DRYING AIR. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL TAKE LONGEST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES WHERE
CONTINUED OVERLAKE INSTABILITY HELP FEED OFF THE LAKES. THAT
SAID...WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTINUALLY MINIMIZE ANY
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE WATER. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGES: CLOUD COVER.

OVERVIEW(ANALYSIS AND FORECAST)...SEMI-BLOCKY PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO, AND THE LOWS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE REGION. THIS BLOCKY PATTERN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
AND MOVE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SATURDAY) AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND (SUNDAY).

(12/19)FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE
DRY AIR AT 850 MB AND IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER (RH<30% IN BOTH), WILL
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, THE CAVEAT
HAS BEEN THAT THE MODELS KEEP FLIP-FLOPPING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION. AT THIS POINT, THE MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, NAM)
ARE ALL SHOWING DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THIS HAPPENS. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS. OVERNIGHT MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC, IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE, WE COULD HAVE ISSUES WITH LOW
STRATUS/FOG IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION THAT WILL PROBABLY FORM UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS AND INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE THE OPTIMISM.

(12/20)SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF WHATEVER HAPPENS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LIGHT FLOW WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR
ANYTHING OUT THAT DOES FORM FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE IF IT IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, THEN THE DAY WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...FINALLY GONNA GET TO VFR...

DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS SQUASHED ALL SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT...WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING VFR VSBYS. SKIES ALL AREAS ARE MVFR
STILL THOUGH...BUT WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS BY DAYBREAK AT PLN...AND
THIS MORNING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRPORTS. TOTAL CLEARING
EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
WEAKENING. SOME GUSTS TO 16KTS OR SO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON AREA OBSERVATIONS...ALL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
ENDED...AND AS NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCOMING
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THERE WILL BE NO MARINE ISSUES. WINDS REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ALSO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 180714
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
214 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

VERY LIGHT SNOWS WERE ONGOING ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN
MICHIGAN...UNTIL A SOLID CHUNK OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
850MB AND 700MB SHUT THAT DOWN OVER ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NW
FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIMES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
ONGOING IN THOSE REGIMES...BUT THAT SAME DRY AIR WILL SEVERELY
LIMIT THEIR ABILITY TO REDUCE VSBYS...AND CERTAINLY ACCUMULATIONS.

CUT EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO A TENTH OR TWO IN THE NW/N FLOW
REGIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...SUNSHINE...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

UPPER AND SFC LOWS ARE IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK
FLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DRYING HAS ALREADY SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING BACK ALONG RESIDUAL LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROUGHING. THIS SQUASHED THE SNOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
LEFT SOME WEAK/VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN NNW/NORTH FLOW REGIMES. WE
ARE EVEN SEEING THIS SNOW GET SEVERELY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF THE DRIER AIR IS RIGHT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN...AND IS SEEN VIA LATEST SATELLITE...WITH CLEARING ALREADY
PUNCHING THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND EVEN PARTS OF FAR NRN LOWER. THIS
IS IN CONTRAST TO WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN UPPER WHERE THE
STRATUS IS ACTUALLY EXPANDING WEST/NW OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS IN EASTERN UPPER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTH TODAY...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONGER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS. LATEST SATELLITE AND DATA SUGGEST NOTHING TO STOP
THIS STRONGER PUSH OF DRYING AIR. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL TAKE LONGEST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES WHERE
CONTINUED OVERLAKE INSTABILITY HELP FEED OFF THE LAKES. THAT
SAID...WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTINUALLY MINIMIZE ANY
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE WATER. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIMES SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING UPSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TO END THIS WEEK. RELATIVELY LOW AMP WAVE FOLLOWS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH A TOTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN IT AND GULF
MOISTURE PLUME PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALL IN
ALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN (AT LEAST FOR NOW).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...RATHER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
STEADILY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER THURSDAY...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ALREADY LARGELY TRENDED THIS DIRECTION BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...AND SIMPLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST IT.
DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE SUPPORTS PLENTY MORE SUN
UP THAT WAY...WITH THIS CLEARING EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. RIDGE DEPARTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY A
COMPLETELY MOISTURE AND DYNAMICALLY STARVED TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...FINALLY GONNA GET TO VFR...

DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS SQUASHED ALL SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT...WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING VFR VSBYS. SKIES ALL AREAS ARE MVFR
STILL THOUGH...BUT WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS BY DAYBREAK AT PLN...AND
THIS MORNING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRPORTS. TOTAL CLEARING
EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
WEAKENING. SOME GUSTS TO 16KTS OR SO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON AREA OBSERVATIONS...ALL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
ENDED...AND AS NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCOMING
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THERE WILL BE NO MARINE ISSUES. WINDS REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ALSO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
FXUS63 KAPX 180543
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

VERY LIGHT SNOWS WERE ONGOING ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN
MICHIGAN...UNTIL A SOLID CHUNK OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
850MB AND 700MB SHUT THAT DOWN OVER ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NW
FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIMES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
ONGOING IN THOSE REGIMES...BUT THAT SAME DRY AIR WILL SEVERELY
LIMIT THEIR ABILITY TO REDUCE VSBYS...AND CERTAINLY ACCUMULATIONS.

CUT EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO A TENTH OR TWO IN THE NW/N FLOW
REGIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITION TO LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FILLING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC BORDER...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION INTO
WESTERN UPPER.  ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THIS TROUGH
(ESSENTIALLY A COLD FRONT) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AND ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN NEW YORK.  ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER.  SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW/WET DURING THIS EVENT (4:1-
7:1 COMMON)...LOTS OF SMALL FLAKE SNOW OUT THE WINDOW THAT IS GOOD
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT NOT ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY.

POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL TRACK EAST QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL TO MORE TYPICAL LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT: STILL SOME SNOW WRAPPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG DOWNWARD
QG FORCING THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO AN
END...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE PURE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION
DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.  WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME TO COVER SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO WET SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL POOR VISIBILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON "DRIVE TIME" (OR WHAT
PASSES FOR SUCH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN).  EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE COLD AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PLATEAU DRAINING ACROSS THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER OVERNIGHT.  ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN FROM 850MB TO AROUND 900MB BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THEREFORE SHOULD BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WOULD ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING UPSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TO END THIS WEEK. RELATIVELY LOW AMP WAVE FOLLOWS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH A TOTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN IT AND GULF
MOISTURE PLUME PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALL IN
ALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN (AT LEAST FOR NOW).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...RATHER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
STEADILY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER THURSDAY...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ALREADY LARGELY TRENDED THIS DIRECTION BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...AND SIMPLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST IT.
DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE SUPPORTS PLENTY MORE SUN
UP THAT WAY...WITH THIS CLEARING EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. RIDGE DEPARTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY A
COMPLETELY MOISTURE AND DYNAMICALLY STARVED TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...FINALLY GONNA GET TO VFR...

DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS SQUASHED ALL SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT...WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING VFR VSBYS. SKIES ALL AREAS ARE MVFR
STILL THOUGH...BUT WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS BY DAYBREAK AT PLN...AND
THIS MORNING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRPORTS. TOTAL CLEARING
EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
WEAKENING. SOME GUSTS TO 16KTS OR SO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH
SPEEDS LOWER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 180543
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

VERY LIGHT SNOWS WERE ONGOING ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN
MICHIGAN...UNTIL A SOLID CHUNK OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
850MB AND 700MB SHUT THAT DOWN OVER ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NW
FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIMES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
ONGOING IN THOSE REGIMES...BUT THAT SAME DRY AIR WILL SEVERELY
LIMIT THEIR ABILITY TO REDUCE VSBYS...AND CERTAINLY ACCUMULATIONS.

CUT EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO A TENTH OR TWO IN THE NW/N FLOW
REGIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITION TO LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FILLING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC BORDER...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION INTO
WESTERN UPPER.  ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THIS TROUGH
(ESSENTIALLY A COLD FRONT) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AND ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN NEW YORK.  ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER.  SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW/WET DURING THIS EVENT (4:1-
7:1 COMMON)...LOTS OF SMALL FLAKE SNOW OUT THE WINDOW THAT IS GOOD
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT NOT ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY.

POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL TRACK EAST QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL TO MORE TYPICAL LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT: STILL SOME SNOW WRAPPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG DOWNWARD
QG FORCING THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO AN
END...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE PURE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION
DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.  WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME TO COVER SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO WET SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL POOR VISIBILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON "DRIVE TIME" (OR WHAT
PASSES FOR SUCH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN).  EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE COLD AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PLATEAU DRAINING ACROSS THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER OVERNIGHT.  ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN FROM 850MB TO AROUND 900MB BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THEREFORE SHOULD BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WOULD ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING UPSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TO END THIS WEEK. RELATIVELY LOW AMP WAVE FOLLOWS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH A TOTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN IT AND GULF
MOISTURE PLUME PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALL IN
ALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN (AT LEAST FOR NOW).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...RATHER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
STEADILY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER THURSDAY...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ALREADY LARGELY TRENDED THIS DIRECTION BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...AND SIMPLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST IT.
DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE SUPPORTS PLENTY MORE SUN
UP THAT WAY...WITH THIS CLEARING EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. RIDGE DEPARTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY A
COMPLETELY MOISTURE AND DYNAMICALLY STARVED TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...FINALLY GONNA GET TO VFR...

DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS SQUASHED ALL SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT...WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING VFR VSBYS. SKIES ALL AREAS ARE MVFR
STILL THOUGH...BUT WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS BY DAYBREAK AT PLN...AND
THIS MORNING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRPORTS. TOTAL CLEARING
EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
WEAKENING. SOME GUSTS TO 16KTS OR SO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH
SPEEDS LOWER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 180525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1225 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO IS BUILDING IN
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE STRONG WITH MQT VWP SHOWING
INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2500FT AGL. FLURRIES ARE FADING FAST AND
THERE REMAINS JUST A LOW CLOUD DECK TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
00Z NAM 925MB RH FIELD SHOWS CLOUD DECK BEST AND SUGGESTS THAT SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS KEWEENAW AND ALSO EVENTUALLY OVER FAR
EAST CWA. ELSEWHERE LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE NIGHT. ONLY CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO TWEAK LOW TEMPS
AS TEMPS THUS FAR UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STAYING UP. LOWEST
MINS...POSSIBLY DOWN TO LOWER TEENS...ARE EXPECTED ON THE KEWEENAW
WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR LONGEST TONIGHT AND WITH ADDED HELP FROM
FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AT KCMX AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD AND
KSAW...BUT LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AT BOTH
SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OUT OF THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER. RISK OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AT MAINLY KSAW AND POSSIBLY
KCMX. DID LEAVE OUT OF TAFS ATTM THOUGH AS GREATEST CHANCE OF VSBY
REDUCTION AND ICE DEPOSITION SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER END OF TAF
PERIOD LATER ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 180525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1225 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO IS BUILDING IN
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE STRONG WITH MQT VWP SHOWING
INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2500FT AGL. FLURRIES ARE FADING FAST AND
THERE REMAINS JUST A LOW CLOUD DECK TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
00Z NAM 925MB RH FIELD SHOWS CLOUD DECK BEST AND SUGGESTS THAT SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS KEWEENAW AND ALSO EVENTUALLY OVER FAR
EAST CWA. ELSEWHERE LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE NIGHT. ONLY CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO TWEAK LOW TEMPS
AS TEMPS THUS FAR UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STAYING UP. LOWEST
MINS...POSSIBLY DOWN TO LOWER TEENS...ARE EXPECTED ON THE KEWEENAW
WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR LONGEST TONIGHT AND WITH ADDED HELP FROM
FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AT KCMX AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD AND
KSAW...BUT LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AT BOTH
SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OUT OF THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER. RISK OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AT MAINLY KSAW AND POSSIBLY
KCMX. DID LEAVE OUT OF TAFS ATTM THOUGH AS GREATEST CHANCE OF VSBY
REDUCTION AND ICE DEPOSITION SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER END OF TAF
PERIOD LATER ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 180525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1225 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO IS BUILDING IN
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE STRONG WITH MQT VWP SHOWING
INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2500FT AGL. FLURRIES ARE FADING FAST AND
THERE REMAINS JUST A LOW CLOUD DECK TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
00Z NAM 925MB RH FIELD SHOWS CLOUD DECK BEST AND SUGGESTS THAT SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS KEWEENAW AND ALSO EVENTUALLY OVER FAR
EAST CWA. ELSEWHERE LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE NIGHT. ONLY CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO TWEAK LOW TEMPS
AS TEMPS THUS FAR UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STAYING UP. LOWEST
MINS...POSSIBLY DOWN TO LOWER TEENS...ARE EXPECTED ON THE KEWEENAW
WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR LONGEST TONIGHT AND WITH ADDED HELP FROM
FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AT KCMX AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD AND
KSAW...BUT LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AT BOTH
SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OUT OF THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER. RISK OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AT MAINLY KSAW AND POSSIBLY
KCMX. DID LEAVE OUT OF TAFS ATTM THOUGH AS GREATEST CHANCE OF VSBY
REDUCTION AND ICE DEPOSITION SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER END OF TAF
PERIOD LATER ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 180525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1225 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO IS BUILDING IN
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE STRONG WITH MQT VWP SHOWING
INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2500FT AGL. FLURRIES ARE FADING FAST AND
THERE REMAINS JUST A LOW CLOUD DECK TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
00Z NAM 925MB RH FIELD SHOWS CLOUD DECK BEST AND SUGGESTS THAT SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS KEWEENAW AND ALSO EVENTUALLY OVER FAR
EAST CWA. ELSEWHERE LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE NIGHT. ONLY CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO TWEAK LOW TEMPS
AS TEMPS THUS FAR UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STAYING UP. LOWEST
MINS...POSSIBLY DOWN TO LOWER TEENS...ARE EXPECTED ON THE KEWEENAW
WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR LONGEST TONIGHT AND WITH ADDED HELP FROM
FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AT KCMX AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD AND
KSAW...BUT LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AT BOTH
SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OUT OF THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER. RISK OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AT MAINLY KSAW AND POSSIBLY
KCMX. DID LEAVE OUT OF TAFS ATTM THOUGH AS GREATEST CHANCE OF VSBY
REDUCTION AND ICE DEPOSITION SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER END OF TAF
PERIOD LATER ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KGRR 180504
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FCST TO LOWER THE CHCS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT DOWN TO MAINLY FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED SE OF THE AREA...AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BUILDING IN. THE TREND FOR THE NIGHT IS FOR
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MODIFYING TEMPS ALOFT. DGZ IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING UNSATURATED...SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE SPARSE. WE DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME
AN ISSUE WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 2K FT AND ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 180504
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FCST TO LOWER THE CHCS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT DOWN TO MAINLY FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED SE OF THE AREA...AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BUILDING IN. THE TREND FOR THE NIGHT IS FOR
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MODIFYING TEMPS ALOFT. DGZ IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING UNSATURATED...SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE SPARSE. WE DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME
AN ISSUE WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 2K FT AND ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 180504
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FCST TO LOWER THE CHCS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT DOWN TO MAINLY FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED SE OF THE AREA...AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BUILDING IN. THE TREND FOR THE NIGHT IS FOR
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MODIFYING TEMPS ALOFT. DGZ IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING UNSATURATED...SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE SPARSE. WE DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME
AN ISSUE WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 2K FT AND ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 180504
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FCST TO LOWER THE CHCS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT DOWN TO MAINLY FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED SE OF THE AREA...AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BUILDING IN. THE TREND FOR THE NIGHT IS FOR
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MODIFYING TEMPS ALOFT. DGZ IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING UNSATURATED...SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE SPARSE. WE DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME
AN ISSUE WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 2K FT AND ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KDTX 180459
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1159 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A RENEWED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING.
THESE TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FALL BELOW 2000 FT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED WELL INTO THURSDAY PER RECENT MODEL SOUNDING
DATA.  MODEST WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM TRENDS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.  MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CIGS BELOW 2000 FT
THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

STRONG UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH
THE AREA...AND ALSO PULL A SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING BACK FROM
THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DOWN INTO CENTRAL
MICHIGAN.

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE AREA OF DEFORMATION...DEEPER MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ACTIVITY IS ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AREA OF BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO JUST
CLIP THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM...WITH LIFT WEAKENING AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE
UPPER COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM SEEPING FURTHER
SOUTH...AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FAIRLY QUIET OUTSIDE OF
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO BRUSH THE THUMB. SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVEN ONLY 1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AND WEAKENING
FORCING...WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 0.5 INCHES.

FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES FROM OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR EVEN A
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE EXIT
OF THE UPPER COLD POOL ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO BECOME MORE STABLE.
BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BEFORE 8 PM...AS UPPER COLD POOL BRIEFLY
STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED INTO PLACE TONIGHT UNDER AN
INVERSION. THIS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
TONIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE MID 20S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE TROUGH.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SLACKEN AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.  THE ONE ISSUE EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB AREA
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.  LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOWED WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
HAVE DECREASED POPS WHILE LEAVING IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.  CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LOW CLOUDS REMAINED WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY.

ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO A QUIET WEEKEND AS ASCENT FROM
DEAMPLIFYING WAVE IS STILL SHOWN BY NWP SOLUTIONS TO PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. CONTINUED DRY AND A BIT WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE WILL HINGE UPON VERY STRONG PAC NW
JET ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CLIPPER WILL SLOW IN RESPONSE TO
THIS JET ENERGY AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z MODELS
INDICATE THE CYCLONE BECOMING QUITE DEEP BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DETAILS IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW
TRACK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARD CHRISTMAS
EVE.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SLACKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PUSH TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AS WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY
ALONG WITH LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WILL BE
CONTINUED.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
BRING LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SS/DT
MARINE.......SS

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 180459
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1159 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A RENEWED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING.
THESE TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FALL BELOW 2000 FT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED WELL INTO THURSDAY PER RECENT MODEL SOUNDING
DATA.  MODEST WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM TRENDS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.  MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CIGS BELOW 2000 FT
THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

STRONG UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH
THE AREA...AND ALSO PULL A SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING BACK FROM
THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DOWN INTO CENTRAL
MICHIGAN.

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE AREA OF DEFORMATION...DEEPER MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ACTIVITY IS ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AREA OF BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO JUST
CLIP THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM...WITH LIFT WEAKENING AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE
UPPER COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM SEEPING FURTHER
SOUTH...AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FAIRLY QUIET OUTSIDE OF
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO BRUSH THE THUMB. SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVEN ONLY 1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AND WEAKENING
FORCING...WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 0.5 INCHES.

FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES FROM OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR EVEN A
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE EXIT
OF THE UPPER COLD POOL ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO BECOME MORE STABLE.
BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BEFORE 8 PM...AS UPPER COLD POOL BRIEFLY
STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED INTO PLACE TONIGHT UNDER AN
INVERSION. THIS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
TONIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE MID 20S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE TROUGH.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SLACKEN AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.  THE ONE ISSUE EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB AREA
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.  LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOWED WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
HAVE DECREASED POPS WHILE LEAVING IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.  CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LOW CLOUDS REMAINED WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY.

ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO A QUIET WEEKEND AS ASCENT FROM
DEAMPLIFYING WAVE IS STILL SHOWN BY NWP SOLUTIONS TO PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. CONTINUED DRY AND A BIT WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE WILL HINGE UPON VERY STRONG PAC NW
JET ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CLIPPER WILL SLOW IN RESPONSE TO
THIS JET ENERGY AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z MODELS
INDICATE THE CYCLONE BECOMING QUITE DEEP BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DETAILS IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW
TRACK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARD CHRISTMAS
EVE.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SLACKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PUSH TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AS WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY
ALONG WITH LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WILL BE
CONTINUED.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
BRING LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SS/DT
MARINE.......SS

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 180459
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1159 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A RENEWED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING.
THESE TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FALL BELOW 2000 FT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED WELL INTO THURSDAY PER RECENT MODEL SOUNDING
DATA.  MODEST WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM TRENDS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.  MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CIGS BELOW 2000 FT
THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

STRONG UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH
THE AREA...AND ALSO PULL A SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING BACK FROM
THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DOWN INTO CENTRAL
MICHIGAN.

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE AREA OF DEFORMATION...DEEPER MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ACTIVITY IS ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AREA OF BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO JUST
CLIP THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM...WITH LIFT WEAKENING AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE
UPPER COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM SEEPING FURTHER
SOUTH...AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FAIRLY QUIET OUTSIDE OF
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO BRUSH THE THUMB. SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVEN ONLY 1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AND WEAKENING
FORCING...WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 0.5 INCHES.

FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES FROM OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR EVEN A
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE EXIT
OF THE UPPER COLD POOL ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO BECOME MORE STABLE.
BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BEFORE 8 PM...AS UPPER COLD POOL BRIEFLY
STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED INTO PLACE TONIGHT UNDER AN
INVERSION. THIS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
TONIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE MID 20S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE TROUGH.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SLACKEN AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.  THE ONE ISSUE EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB AREA
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.  LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOWED WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
HAVE DECREASED POPS WHILE LEAVING IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.  CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LOW CLOUDS REMAINED WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY.

ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO A QUIET WEEKEND AS ASCENT FROM
DEAMPLIFYING WAVE IS STILL SHOWN BY NWP SOLUTIONS TO PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. CONTINUED DRY AND A BIT WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE WILL HINGE UPON VERY STRONG PAC NW
JET ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CLIPPER WILL SLOW IN RESPONSE TO
THIS JET ENERGY AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z MODELS
INDICATE THE CYCLONE BECOMING QUITE DEEP BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DETAILS IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW
TRACK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARD CHRISTMAS
EVE.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SLACKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PUSH TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AS WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY
ALONG WITH LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WILL BE
CONTINUED.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
BRING LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SS/DT
MARINE.......SS

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 180459
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1159 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A RENEWED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING.
THESE TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FALL BELOW 2000 FT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED WELL INTO THURSDAY PER RECENT MODEL SOUNDING
DATA.  MODEST WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM TRENDS INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.  MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CIGS BELOW 2000 FT
THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

STRONG UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH
THE AREA...AND ALSO PULL A SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING BACK FROM
THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DOWN INTO CENTRAL
MICHIGAN.

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE AREA OF DEFORMATION...DEEPER MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ACTIVITY IS ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AREA OF BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO JUST
CLIP THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM...WITH LIFT WEAKENING AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE
UPPER COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM SEEPING FURTHER
SOUTH...AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FAIRLY QUIET OUTSIDE OF
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO BRUSH THE THUMB. SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVEN ONLY 1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AND WEAKENING
FORCING...WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 0.5 INCHES.

FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES FROM OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR EVEN A
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE EXIT
OF THE UPPER COLD POOL ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO BECOME MORE STABLE.
BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BEFORE 8 PM...AS UPPER COLD POOL BRIEFLY
STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED INTO PLACE TONIGHT UNDER AN
INVERSION. THIS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
TONIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE MID 20S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE TROUGH.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SLACKEN AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.  THE ONE ISSUE EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB AREA
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.  LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOWED WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
HAVE DECREASED POPS WHILE LEAVING IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.  CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LOW CLOUDS REMAINED WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY.

ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO A QUIET WEEKEND AS ASCENT FROM
DEAMPLIFYING WAVE IS STILL SHOWN BY NWP SOLUTIONS TO PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. CONTINUED DRY AND A BIT WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE WILL HINGE UPON VERY STRONG PAC NW
JET ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CLIPPER WILL SLOW IN RESPONSE TO
THIS JET ENERGY AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z MODELS
INDICATE THE CYCLONE BECOMING QUITE DEEP BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DETAILS IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW
TRACK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARD CHRISTMAS
EVE.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SLACKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PUSH TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AS WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY
ALONG WITH LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WILL BE
CONTINUED.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
BRING LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SS/DT
MARINE.......SS

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 180435
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

VERY LIGHT SNOWS WERE ONGOING ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN
MICHIGAN...UNTIL A SOLID CHUNK OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
850MB AND 700MB SHUT THAT DOWN OVER ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NW
FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIMES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
ONGOING IN THOSE REGIMES...BUT THAT SAME DRY AIR WILL SEVERELY
LIMIT THEIR ABILITY TO REDUCE VSBYS...AND CERTAINLY ACCUMULATIONS.

CUT EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO A TENTH OR TWO IN THE NW/N FLOW
REGIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITION TO LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FILLING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC BORDER...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION INTO
WESTERN UPPER.  ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THIS TROUGH
(ESSENTIALLY A COLD FRONT) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AND ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN NEW YORK.  ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER.  SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW/WET DURING THIS EVENT (4:1-
7:1 COMMON)...LOTS OF SMALL FLAKE SNOW OUT THE WINDOW THAT IS GOOD
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT NOT ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY.

POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL TRACK EAST QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL TO MORE TYPICAL LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT: STILL SOME SNOW WRAPPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG DOWNWARD
QG FORCING THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO AN
END...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE PURE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION
DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.  WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME TO COVER SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO WET SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL POOR VISIBILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON "DRIVE TIME" (OR WHAT
PASSES FOR SUCH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN).  EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE COLD AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PLATEAU DRAINING ACROSS THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER OVERNIGHT.  ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN FROM 850MB TO AROUND 900MB BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THEREFORE SHOULD BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WOULD ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING UPSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TO END THIS WEEK. RELATIVELY LOW AMP WAVE FOLLOWS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH A TOTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN IT AND GULF
MOISTURE PLUME PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALL IN
ALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN (AT LEAST FOR NOW).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...RATHER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
STEADILY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER THURSDAY...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ALREADY LARGELY TRENDED THIS DIRECTION BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...AND SIMPLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST IT.
DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE SUPPORTS PLENTY MORE SUN
UP THAT WAY...WITH THIS CLEARING EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. RIDGE DEPARTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY A
COMPLETELY MOISTURE AND DYNAMICALLY STARVED TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST OF EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
OUR STATE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...MAINLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY TVC AND MBL WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. N/NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN AOB 10 KT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH
SPEEDS LOWER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 180302
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1002 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO IS BUILDING IN
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE STRONG WITH MQT VWP SHOWING
INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2500FT AGL. FLURRIES ARE FADING FAST AND
THERE REMAINS JUST A LOW CLOUD DECK TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
00Z NAM 925MB RH FIELD SHOWS CLOUD DECK BEST AND SUGGESTS THAT SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS KEWEENAW AND ALSO EVENTUALLY OVER FAR
EAST CWA. ELSEWHERE LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE NIGHT. ONLY CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO TWEAK LOW TEMPS
AS TEMPS THUS FAR UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STAYING UP. LOWEST
MINS...POSSIBLY DOWN TO LOWER TEENS...ARE EXPECTED ON THE KEWEENAW
WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR LONGEST TONIGHT AND WITH ADDED HELP FROM
FRESH SNOW COVER. &&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL END OVERNIGHT BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE /CIGS AROUND 1KFT OR EVEN HIGHER IFR RANGE/ WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. MOISTURE NOT TOO EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
THOUGH...SO EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTER OUT OR AT LEAST EXPECT THE CIGS
TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES INTO
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE AT KCMX DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR OVER ONTARIO AND AN UNFAVORABLE NE WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE LIFTING. CLEARING PROBABLY DOES NOT ARRIVE AT
KIWD AND KSAW UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING OR THURSDAY AFTN AS WINDS STAY
NORTHERLY. IWD LIKELY WILL KEEP CLOUDS LONGEST AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
A LONGER FETCH OF ADDITIONAL LAKE SUPERIOR MOISTURE INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 180302
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1002 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO IS BUILDING IN
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE STRONG WITH MQT VWP SHOWING
INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2500FT AGL. FLURRIES ARE FADING FAST AND
THERE REMAINS JUST A LOW CLOUD DECK TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
00Z NAM 925MB RH FIELD SHOWS CLOUD DECK BEST AND SUGGESTS THAT SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS KEWEENAW AND ALSO EVENTUALLY OVER FAR
EAST CWA. ELSEWHERE LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE NIGHT. ONLY CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO TWEAK LOW TEMPS
AS TEMPS THUS FAR UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STAYING UP. LOWEST
MINS...POSSIBLY DOWN TO LOWER TEENS...ARE EXPECTED ON THE KEWEENAW
WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR LONGEST TONIGHT AND WITH ADDED HELP FROM
FRESH SNOW COVER. &&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL END OVERNIGHT BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE /CIGS AROUND 1KFT OR EVEN HIGHER IFR RANGE/ WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. MOISTURE NOT TOO EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
THOUGH...SO EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTER OUT OR AT LEAST EXPECT THE CIGS
TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES INTO
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE AT KCMX DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR OVER ONTARIO AND AN UNFAVORABLE NE WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE LIFTING. CLEARING PROBABLY DOES NOT ARRIVE AT
KIWD AND KSAW UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING OR THURSDAY AFTN AS WINDS STAY
NORTHERLY. IWD LIKELY WILL KEEP CLOUDS LONGEST AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
A LONGER FETCH OF ADDITIONAL LAKE SUPERIOR MOISTURE INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 180204
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
904 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FCST TO LOWER THE CHCS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT DOWN TO MAINLY FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED SE OF THE AREA...AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BUILDING IN. THE TREND FOR THE NIGHT IS FOR
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MODIFYING TEMPS ALOFT. DGZ IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING UNSATURATED...SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE SPARSE. WE DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME
AN ISSUE WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 2K FT AND ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL NOT AFFECT VISBYS MUCH. CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT
AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 180204
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
904 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FCST TO LOWER THE CHCS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT DOWN TO MAINLY FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED SE OF THE AREA...AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BUILDING IN. THE TREND FOR THE NIGHT IS FOR
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MODIFYING TEMPS ALOFT. DGZ IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING UNSATURATED...SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE SPARSE. WE DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME
AN ISSUE WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 2K FT AND ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL NOT AFFECT VISBYS MUCH. CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT
AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 172348
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL NOT AFFECT VISBYS MUCH. CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT
AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KMQT 172346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
646 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL END OVERNIGHT BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE /CIGS AROUND 1KFT OR EVEN HIGHER IFR RANGE/ WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. MOISTURE NOT TOO EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
THOUGH...SO EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTER OUT OR AT LEAST EXPECT THE CIGS
TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES INTO
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE AT KCMX DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR OVER ONTARIO AND AN UNFAVORABLE NE WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE LIFTING. CLEARING PROBABLY DOES NOT ARRIVE AT
KIWD AND KSAW UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING OR THURSDAY AFTN AS WINDS STAY
NORTHERLY. IWD LIKELY WILL KEEP CLOUDS LONGEST AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
A LONGER FETCH OF ADDITIONAL LAKE SUPERIOR MOISTURE INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 172346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
646 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL END OVERNIGHT BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE /CIGS AROUND 1KFT OR EVEN HIGHER IFR RANGE/ WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. MOISTURE NOT TOO EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
THOUGH...SO EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTER OUT OR AT LEAST EXPECT THE CIGS
TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES INTO
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE AT KCMX DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR OVER ONTARIO AND AN UNFAVORABLE NE WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE LIFTING. CLEARING PROBABLY DOES NOT ARRIVE AT
KIWD AND KSAW UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING OR THURSDAY AFTN AS WINDS STAY
NORTHERLY. IWD LIKELY WILL KEEP CLOUDS LONGEST AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
A LONGER FETCH OF ADDITIONAL LAKE SUPERIOR MOISTURE INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 172341
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL NOT AFFECT VISBYS MUCH. CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT
AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 172341
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL NOT AFFECT VISBYS MUCH. CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT
AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KAPX 172315
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
615 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITION TO LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FILLING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC BORDER...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION INTO
WESTERN UPPER.  ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THIS TROUGH
(ESSENTIALLY A COLD FRONT) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AND ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN NEW YORK.  ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER.  SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW/WET DURING THIS EVENT (4:1-
7:1 COMMON)...LOTS OF SMALL FLAKE SNOW OUT THE WINDOW THAT IS GOOD
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT NOT ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY.

POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL TRACK EAST QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL TO MORE TYPICAL LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT: STILL SOME SNOW WRAPPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG DOWNWARD
QG FORCING THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO AN
END...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE PURE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION
DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.  WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME TO COVER SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO WET SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL POOR VISIBILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON "DRIVE TIME" (OR WHAT
PASSES FOR SUCH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN).  EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE COLD AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PLATEAU DRAINING ACROSS THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER OVERNIGHT.  ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN FROM 850MB TO AROUND 900MB BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THEREFORE SHOULD BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WOULD ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING UPSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TO END THIS WEEK. RELATIVELY LOW AMP WAVE FOLLOWS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH A TOTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN IT AND GULF
MOISTURE PLUME PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALL IN
ALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN (AT LEAST FOR NOW).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...RATHER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
STEADILY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER THURSDAY...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ALREADY LARGELY TRENDED THIS DIRECTION BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...AND SIMPLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST IT.
DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE SUPPORTS PLENTY MORE SUN
UP THAT WAY...WITH THIS CLEARING EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. RIDGE DEPARTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY A
COMPLETELY MOISTURE AND DYNAMICALLY STARVED TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST OF EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
OUR STATE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...MAINLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY TVC AND MBL WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. N/NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN AOB 10 KT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH
SPEEDS LOWER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 172315
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
615 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITION TO LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FILLING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC BORDER...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION INTO
WESTERN UPPER.  ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THIS TROUGH
(ESSENTIALLY A COLD FRONT) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AND ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN NEW YORK.  ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER.  SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW/WET DURING THIS EVENT (4:1-
7:1 COMMON)...LOTS OF SMALL FLAKE SNOW OUT THE WINDOW THAT IS GOOD
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT NOT ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY.

POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL TRACK EAST QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL TO MORE TYPICAL LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT: STILL SOME SNOW WRAPPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG DOWNWARD
QG FORCING THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO AN
END...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE PURE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION
DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.  WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME TO COVER SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO WET SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL POOR VISIBILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON "DRIVE TIME" (OR WHAT
PASSES FOR SUCH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN).  EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE COLD AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PLATEAU DRAINING ACROSS THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER OVERNIGHT.  ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN FROM 850MB TO AROUND 900MB BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THEREFORE SHOULD BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WOULD ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING UPSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TO END THIS WEEK. RELATIVELY LOW AMP WAVE FOLLOWS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH A TOTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN IT AND GULF
MOISTURE PLUME PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALL IN
ALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN (AT LEAST FOR NOW).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...RATHER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
STEADILY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER THURSDAY...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ALREADY LARGELY TRENDED THIS DIRECTION BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...AND SIMPLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST IT.
DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE SUPPORTS PLENTY MORE SUN
UP THAT WAY...WITH THIS CLEARING EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. RIDGE DEPARTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY A
COMPLETELY MOISTURE AND DYNAMICALLY STARVED TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST OF EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
OUR STATE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...MAINLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY TVC AND MBL WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. N/NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN AOB 10 KT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH
SPEEDS LOWER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 172315
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
615 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITION TO LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FILLING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC BORDER...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION INTO
WESTERN UPPER.  ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THIS TROUGH
(ESSENTIALLY A COLD FRONT) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AND ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN NEW YORK.  ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER.  SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW/WET DURING THIS EVENT (4:1-
7:1 COMMON)...LOTS OF SMALL FLAKE SNOW OUT THE WINDOW THAT IS GOOD
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT NOT ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY.

POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL TRACK EAST QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL TO MORE TYPICAL LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT: STILL SOME SNOW WRAPPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG DOWNWARD
QG FORCING THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO AN
END...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE PURE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION
DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.  WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME TO COVER SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO WET SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL POOR VISIBILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON "DRIVE TIME" (OR WHAT
PASSES FOR SUCH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN).  EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE COLD AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PLATEAU DRAINING ACROSS THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER OVERNIGHT.  ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN FROM 850MB TO AROUND 900MB BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THEREFORE SHOULD BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WOULD ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING UPSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TO END THIS WEEK. RELATIVELY LOW AMP WAVE FOLLOWS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH A TOTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN IT AND GULF
MOISTURE PLUME PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALL IN
ALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN (AT LEAST FOR NOW).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...RATHER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
STEADILY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER THURSDAY...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ALREADY LARGELY TRENDED THIS DIRECTION BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...AND SIMPLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST IT.
DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE SUPPORTS PLENTY MORE SUN
UP THAT WAY...WITH THIS CLEARING EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. RIDGE DEPARTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY A
COMPLETELY MOISTURE AND DYNAMICALLY STARVED TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST OF EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
OUR STATE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...MAINLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY TVC AND MBL WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. N/NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN AOB 10 KT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH
SPEEDS LOWER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 172315
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
615 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITION TO LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FILLING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC BORDER...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION INTO
WESTERN UPPER.  ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THIS TROUGH
(ESSENTIALLY A COLD FRONT) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AND ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN NEW YORK.  ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER.  SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW/WET DURING THIS EVENT (4:1-
7:1 COMMON)...LOTS OF SMALL FLAKE SNOW OUT THE WINDOW THAT IS GOOD
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT NOT ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY.

POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL TRACK EAST QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL TO MORE TYPICAL LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT: STILL SOME SNOW WRAPPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG DOWNWARD
QG FORCING THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO AN
END...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE PURE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION
DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.  WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME TO COVER SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO WET SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL POOR VISIBILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON "DRIVE TIME" (OR WHAT
PASSES FOR SUCH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN).  EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE COLD AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PLATEAU DRAINING ACROSS THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER OVERNIGHT.  ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN FROM 850MB TO AROUND 900MB BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THEREFORE SHOULD BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WOULD ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING UPSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TO END THIS WEEK. RELATIVELY LOW AMP WAVE FOLLOWS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH A TOTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN IT AND GULF
MOISTURE PLUME PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALL IN
ALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN (AT LEAST FOR NOW).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...RATHER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
STEADILY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER THURSDAY...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ALREADY LARGELY TRENDED THIS DIRECTION BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...AND SIMPLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST IT.
DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE SUPPORTS PLENTY MORE SUN
UP THAT WAY...WITH THIS CLEARING EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. RIDGE DEPARTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY A
COMPLETELY MOISTURE AND DYNAMICALLY STARVED TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST OF EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
OUR STATE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...MAINLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY TVC AND MBL WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. N/NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN AOB 10 KT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH
SPEEDS LOWER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KDTX 172256
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
556 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  SLIGHT
FLUCTUATION IN CEILING HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES...BUT WILL
PRIMARILY CENTER WITHIN THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE.  MOISTURE DEPTH
WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE THE OCCASIONAL FLURRY...BOTH COVERAGE
AND DURATION TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE A MENTION.  DIMINISHING
GUSTINESS OF THE PREVAILING WESTERLY GRADIENT WILL THE LOSS OF
HEATING.  WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN AT MVFR UNDER THE
EXISTING STRATUS.  A BRIEF CLIMB INTO LOWER VFR WILL BE PLAUSIBLE
YET THIS EVENING BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE WITH TIME
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY VEERING TOWARD WNW BY MID MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

STRONG UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH
THE AREA...AND ALSO PULL A SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING BACK FROM
THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DOWN INTO CENTRAL
MICHIGAN.

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE AREA OF DEFORMATION...DEEPER MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ACTIVITY IS ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AREA OF BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO JUST
CLIP THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM...WITH LIFT WEAKENING AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE
UPPER COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM SEEPING FURTHER
SOUTH...AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FAIRLY QUIET OUTSIDE OF
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO BRUSH THE THUMB. SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVEN ONLY 1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AND WEAKENING
FORCING...WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 0.5 INCHES.

FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES FROM OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR EVEN A
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE EXIT
OF THE UPPER COLD POOL ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO BECOME MORE STABLE.
BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BEFORE 8 PM...AS UPPER COLD POOL BRIEFLY
STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED INTO PLACE TONIGHT UNDER AN
INVERSION. THIS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
TONIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE MID 20S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE TROUGH.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SLACKEN AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.  THE ONE ISSUE EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB AREA
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.  LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOWED WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
HAVE DECREASED POPS WHILE LEAVING IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.  CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LOW CLOUDS REMAINED WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY.

ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO A QUIET WEEKEND AS ASCENT FROM
DEAMPLIFYING WAVE IS STILL SHOWN BY NWP SOLUTIONS TO PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. CONTINUED DRY AND A BIT WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE WILL HINGE UPON VERY STRONG PAC NW
JET ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CLIPPER WILL SLOW IN RESPONSE TO
THIS JET ENERGY AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z MODELS
INDICATE THE CYCLONE BECOMING QUITE DEEP BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DETAILS IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW
TRACK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARD CHRISTMAS
EVE.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SLACKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PUSH TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AS WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY
ALONG WITH LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WILL BE
CONTINUED.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
BRING LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SS/DT
MARINE.......SS


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 172256
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
556 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  SLIGHT
FLUCTUATION IN CEILING HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES...BUT WILL
PRIMARILY CENTER WITHIN THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE.  MOISTURE DEPTH
WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE THE OCCASIONAL FLURRY...BOTH COVERAGE
AND DURATION TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE A MENTION.  DIMINISHING
GUSTINESS OF THE PREVAILING WESTERLY GRADIENT WILL THE LOSS OF
HEATING.  WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN AT MVFR UNDER THE
EXISTING STRATUS.  A BRIEF CLIMB INTO LOWER VFR WILL BE PLAUSIBLE
YET THIS EVENING BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE WITH TIME
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY VEERING TOWARD WNW BY MID MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

STRONG UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH
THE AREA...AND ALSO PULL A SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING BACK FROM
THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DOWN INTO CENTRAL
MICHIGAN.

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE AREA OF DEFORMATION...DEEPER MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ACTIVITY IS ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AREA OF BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO JUST
CLIP THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM...WITH LIFT WEAKENING AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE
UPPER COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM SEEPING FURTHER
SOUTH...AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FAIRLY QUIET OUTSIDE OF
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO BRUSH THE THUMB. SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVEN ONLY 1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AND WEAKENING
FORCING...WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 0.5 INCHES.

FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES FROM OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR EVEN A
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE EXIT
OF THE UPPER COLD POOL ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO BECOME MORE STABLE.
BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BEFORE 8 PM...AS UPPER COLD POOL BRIEFLY
STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED INTO PLACE TONIGHT UNDER AN
INVERSION. THIS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
TONIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE MID 20S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE TROUGH.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SLACKEN AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.  THE ONE ISSUE EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB AREA
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.  LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOWED WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
HAVE DECREASED POPS WHILE LEAVING IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.  CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LOW CLOUDS REMAINED WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY.

ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO A QUIET WEEKEND AS ASCENT FROM
DEAMPLIFYING WAVE IS STILL SHOWN BY NWP SOLUTIONS TO PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. CONTINUED DRY AND A BIT WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE WILL HINGE UPON VERY STRONG PAC NW
JET ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CLIPPER WILL SLOW IN RESPONSE TO
THIS JET ENERGY AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z MODELS
INDICATE THE CYCLONE BECOMING QUITE DEEP BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DETAILS IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW
TRACK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARD CHRISTMAS
EVE.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SLACKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PUSH TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AS WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY
ALONG WITH LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WILL BE
CONTINUED.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
BRING LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SS/DT
MARINE.......SS


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 172110
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITION TO LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FILLING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC BORDER...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION INTO
WESTERN UPPER.  ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THIS TROUGH
(ESSENTIALLY A COLD FRONT) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AND ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN NEW YORK.  ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER.  SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW/WET DURING THIS EVENT (4:1-
7:1 COMMON)...LOTS OF SMALL FLAKE SNOW OUT THE WINDOW THAT IS GOOD
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT NOT ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY.

POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL TRACK EAST QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL TO MORE TYPICAL LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT: STILL SOME SNOW WRAPPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG DOWNWARD
QG FORCING THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO AN
END...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE PURE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION
DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.  WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME TO COVER SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO WET SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL POOR VISIBILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON "DRIVE TIME" (OR WHAT
PASSES FOR SUCH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN).  EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE COLD AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PLATEAU DRAINING ACROSS THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER OVERNIGHT.  ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN FROM 850MB TO AROUND 900MB BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THEREFORE SHOULD BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WOULD ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING UPSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TO END THIS WEEK. RELATIVELY LOW AMP WAVE FOLLOWS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH A TOTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN IT AND GULF
MOISTURE PLUME PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALL IN
ALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN (AT LEAST FOR NOW).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...RATHER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
STEADILY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER THURSDAY...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ALREADY LARGELY TRENDED THIS DIRECTION BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...AND SIMPLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST IT.
DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE SUPPORTS PLENTY MORE SUN
UP THAT WAY...WITH THIS CLEARING EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. RIDGE DEPARTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY A
COMPLETELY MOISTURE AND DYNAMICALLY STARVED TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
COULD BE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW/IFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC THROUGH
22Z WITH ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOW EXPECTED
TO WIND DOWN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH
SPEEDS LOWER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 172110
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITION TO LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FILLING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC BORDER...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION INTO
WESTERN UPPER.  ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THIS TROUGH
(ESSENTIALLY A COLD FRONT) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AND ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN NEW YORK.  ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER.  SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW/WET DURING THIS EVENT (4:1-
7:1 COMMON)...LOTS OF SMALL FLAKE SNOW OUT THE WINDOW THAT IS GOOD
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT NOT ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY.

POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL TRACK EAST QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL TO MORE TYPICAL LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT: STILL SOME SNOW WRAPPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG DOWNWARD
QG FORCING THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO AN
END...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE PURE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION
DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.  WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME TO COVER SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO WET SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL POOR VISIBILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON "DRIVE TIME" (OR WHAT
PASSES FOR SUCH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN).  EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE COLD AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PLATEAU DRAINING ACROSS THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER OVERNIGHT.  ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN FROM 850MB TO AROUND 900MB BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THEREFORE SHOULD BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WOULD ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING UPSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TO END THIS WEEK. RELATIVELY LOW AMP WAVE FOLLOWS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH A TOTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN IT AND GULF
MOISTURE PLUME PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALL IN
ALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN (AT LEAST FOR NOW).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...RATHER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
STEADILY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER THURSDAY...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ALREADY LARGELY TRENDED THIS DIRECTION BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...AND SIMPLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST IT.
DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE SUPPORTS PLENTY MORE SUN
UP THAT WAY...WITH THIS CLEARING EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. RIDGE DEPARTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY A
COMPLETELY MOISTURE AND DYNAMICALLY STARVED TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
COULD BE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW/IFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC THROUGH
22Z WITH ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOW EXPECTED
TO WIND DOWN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH
SPEEDS LOWER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 172110
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITION TO LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FILLING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC BORDER...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION INTO
WESTERN UPPER.  ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THIS TROUGH
(ESSENTIALLY A COLD FRONT) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AND ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN NEW YORK.  ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER.  SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW/WET DURING THIS EVENT (4:1-
7:1 COMMON)...LOTS OF SMALL FLAKE SNOW OUT THE WINDOW THAT IS GOOD
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT NOT ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY.

POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL TRACK EAST QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL TO MORE TYPICAL LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT: STILL SOME SNOW WRAPPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG DOWNWARD
QG FORCING THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO AN
END...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE PURE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION
DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.  WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME TO COVER SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO WET SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL POOR VISIBILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON "DRIVE TIME" (OR WHAT
PASSES FOR SUCH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN).  EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE COLD AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PLATEAU DRAINING ACROSS THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER OVERNIGHT.  ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN FROM 850MB TO AROUND 900MB BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THEREFORE SHOULD BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WOULD ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING UPSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TO END THIS WEEK. RELATIVELY LOW AMP WAVE FOLLOWS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH A TOTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN IT AND GULF
MOISTURE PLUME PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALL IN
ALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN (AT LEAST FOR NOW).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...RATHER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
STEADILY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER THURSDAY...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ALREADY LARGELY TRENDED THIS DIRECTION BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...AND SIMPLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST IT.
DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE SUPPORTS PLENTY MORE SUN
UP THAT WAY...WITH THIS CLEARING EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. RIDGE DEPARTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY A
COMPLETELY MOISTURE AND DYNAMICALLY STARVED TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
COULD BE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW/IFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC THROUGH
22Z WITH ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOW EXPECTED
TO WIND DOWN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH
SPEEDS LOWER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...MSB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 172110
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITION TO LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FILLING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC BORDER...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION INTO
WESTERN UPPER.  ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THIS TROUGH
(ESSENTIALLY A COLD FRONT) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AND ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN NEW YORK.  ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER.  SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW/WET DURING THIS EVENT (4:1-
7:1 COMMON)...LOTS OF SMALL FLAKE SNOW OUT THE WINDOW THAT IS GOOD
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT NOT ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY.

POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL TRACK EAST QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL TO MORE TYPICAL LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT: STILL SOME SNOW WRAPPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG DOWNWARD
QG FORCING THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO AN
END...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE PURE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION
DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.  WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME TO COVER SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO WET SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL POOR VISIBILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON "DRIVE TIME" (OR WHAT
PASSES FOR SUCH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN).  EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE COLD AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PLATEAU DRAINING ACROSS THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER OVERNIGHT.  ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN FROM 850MB TO AROUND 900MB BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THEREFORE SHOULD BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WOULD ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING UPSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TO END THIS WEEK. RELATIVELY LOW AMP WAVE FOLLOWS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH A TOTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN IT AND GULF
MOISTURE PLUME PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALL IN
ALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN (AT LEAST FOR NOW).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...RATHER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
STEADILY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER THURSDAY...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ALREADY LARGELY TRENDED THIS DIRECTION BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...AND SIMPLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST IT.
DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE SUPPORTS PLENTY MORE SUN
UP THAT WAY...WITH THIS CLEARING EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. RIDGE DEPARTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY A
COMPLETELY MOISTURE AND DYNAMICALLY STARVED TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE DOES SO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF IMPACTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN MINOR.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A 160-180 KT PACIFIC JET
BEGINS TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AIDING IN DIGGING AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS REFLECTED BY THE DEEPENING
~970 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE THUMB/FAR
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL THAT 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENT AS
925 MB AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES
NORTH WELL INTO CANADA ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.
THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT OCCUR IN FULL FORCE UNTIL TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD & BEYOND. WITH THIS BEING SAID AND
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE TRACK AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CAN AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FELT ACROSS THE CWA. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
COULD BE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW/IFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC THROUGH
22Z WITH ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOW EXPECTED
TO WIND DOWN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH
SPEEDS LOWER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 172055
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
355 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE SNOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE
NE TONIGHT...DRY AIR LOOKS TO MOVE OVER CMX...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT
FAVOR LOW CONDITIONS WITH A NE WIND. AT SAW AND IWD...EXPECT
INVERSION TO LOWER THIS EVENING...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS...BUT DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THU MORNING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SOMETIME ON THU. DO EXPECT IWD TO KEEP CLOUDS
LONGER AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 172039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
339 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE SNOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE
NE TONIGHT...DRY AIR LOOKS TO MOVE OVER CMX...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT
FAVOR LOW CONDITIONS WITH A NE WIND. AT SAW AND IWD...EXPECT
INVERSION TO LOWER THIS EVENING...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS...BUT DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THU MORNING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SOMETIME ON THU. DO EXPECT IWD TO KEEP CLOUDS
LONGER AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 172039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
339 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE SNOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE
NE TONIGHT...DRY AIR LOOKS TO MOVE OVER CMX...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT
FAVOR LOW CONDITIONS WITH A NE WIND. AT SAW AND IWD...EXPECT
INVERSION TO LOWER THIS EVENING...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS...BUT DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THU MORNING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SOMETIME ON THU. DO EXPECT IWD TO KEEP CLOUDS
LONGER AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KDTX 172026
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
326 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

STRONG UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH
THE AREA...AND ALSO PULL A SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING BACK FROM
THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DOWN INTO CENTRAL
MICHIGAN.

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE AREA OF DEFORMATION...DEEPER MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ACTIVITY IS ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AREA OF BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO JUST
CLIP THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM...WITH LIFT WEAKENING AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE
UPPER COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM SEEPING FURTHER
SOUTH...AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FAIRLY QUIET OUTSIDE OF
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO BRUSH THE THUMB. SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVEN ONLY 1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AND WEAKENING
FORCING...WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 0.5 INCHES.

FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES FROM OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR EVEN A
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE EXIT
OF THE UPPER COLD POOL ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO BECOME MORE STABLE.
BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BEFORE 8 PM...AS UPPER COLD POOL BRIEFLY
STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED INTO PLACE TONIGHT UNDER AN
INVERSION. THIS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
TONIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE MID 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE TROUGH.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SLACKEN AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.  THE ONE ISSUE EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB AREA
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.  LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOWED WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
HAVE DECREASED POPS WHILE LEAVING IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.  CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LOW CLOUDS REMAINED WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY.

ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO A QUIET WEEKEND AS ASCENT FROM
DEAMPLIFYING WAVE IS STILL SHOWN BY NWP SOLUTIONS TO PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. CONTINUED DRY AND A BIT WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE WILL HINGE UPON VERY STRONG PAC NW
JET ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CLIPPER WILL SLOW IN RESPONSE TO
THIS JET ENERGY AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z MODELS
INDICATE THE CYCLONE BECOMING QUITE DEEP BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DETAILS IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW
TRACK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARD CHRISTMAS
EVE.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SLACKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PUSH TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AS WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY
ALONG WITH LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WILL BE
CONTINUED.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
BRING LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1229 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED UNDER AN INVERSION
THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES THAT GRADUALLY RISE
FROM MVFR TO VFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
MIXED LAYER INCREASES IN DEPTH AND SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN. TIMING OF WHEN CEILINGS WILL RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER...AS FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ADDS SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE NORTH OF DET. AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND LAKE
EFFECT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LOWER BACK TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...WEAKENING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOR DTW...WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. A FEW STRAY
SNOWFLAKES ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR FOR THE
EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ422-442-
     443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SS/DT
MARINE.......SS
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 172026
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
326 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

STRONG UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH
THE AREA...AND ALSO PULL A SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING BACK FROM
THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DOWN INTO CENTRAL
MICHIGAN.

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE AREA OF DEFORMATION...DEEPER MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ACTIVITY IS ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AREA OF BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO JUST
CLIP THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM...WITH LIFT WEAKENING AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE
UPPER COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM SEEPING FURTHER
SOUTH...AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FAIRLY QUIET OUTSIDE OF
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO BRUSH THE THUMB. SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVEN ONLY 1 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AND WEAKENING
FORCING...WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 0.5 INCHES.

FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES FROM OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR EVEN A
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE EXIT
OF THE UPPER COLD POOL ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO BECOME MORE STABLE.
BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BEFORE 8 PM...AS UPPER COLD POOL BRIEFLY
STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED INTO PLACE TONIGHT UNDER AN
INVERSION. THIS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
TONIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE MID 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE TROUGH.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SLACKEN AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.  THE ONE ISSUE EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB AREA
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.  LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOWED WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
HAVE DECREASED POPS WHILE LEAVING IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.  CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LOW CLOUDS REMAINED WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY.

ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO A QUIET WEEKEND AS ASCENT FROM
DEAMPLIFYING WAVE IS STILL SHOWN BY NWP SOLUTIONS TO PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. CONTINUED DRY AND A BIT WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE WILL HINGE UPON VERY STRONG PAC NW
JET ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CLIPPER WILL SLOW IN RESPONSE TO
THIS JET ENERGY AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z MODELS
INDICATE THE CYCLONE BECOMING QUITE DEEP BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DETAILS IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW
TRACK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARD CHRISTMAS
EVE.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SLACKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PUSH TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AS WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY
ALONG WITH LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WILL BE
CONTINUED.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
BRING LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1229 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

//DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED UNDER AN INVERSION
THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES THAT GRADUALLY RISE
FROM MVFR TO VFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
MIXED LAYER INCREASES IN DEPTH AND SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN. TIMING OF WHEN CEILINGS WILL RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER...AS FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ADDS SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE NORTH OF DET. AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND LAKE
EFFECT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LOWER BACK TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...WEAKENING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOR DTW...WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. A FEW STRAY
SNOWFLAKES ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR FOR THE
EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ422-442-
     443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SS/DT
MARINE.......SS
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 172016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW
FALLING.  THIS HAPPENS WEDNESDAY EVENING/CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOWARD EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL PERK UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD GET GOING
AROUND 21Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. THE FLOW FAVORS
AZO HAVING THE MOST IMPACT...BUT MKG...GRR...AND BTL WILL ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST BY AROUND 03Z
WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LET UP AND A RETURN TO MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z THU.

WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK...GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 172016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW
FALLING.  THIS HAPPENS WEDNESDAY EVENING/CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOWARD EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL PERK UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD GET GOING
AROUND 21Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. THE FLOW FAVORS
AZO HAVING THE MOST IMPACT...BUT MKG...GRR...AND BTL WILL ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST BY AROUND 03Z
WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LET UP AND A RETURN TO MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z THU.

WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK...GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 172016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW
FALLING.  THIS HAPPENS WEDNESDAY EVENING/CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOWARD EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL PERK UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD GET GOING
AROUND 21Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. THE FLOW FAVORS
AZO HAVING THE MOST IMPACT...BUT MKG...GRR...AND BTL WILL ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST BY AROUND 03Z
WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LET UP AND A RETURN TO MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z THU.

WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK...GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 172016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW
FALLING.  THIS HAPPENS WEDNESDAY EVENING/CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOWARD EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL PERK UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD GET GOING
AROUND 21Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. THE FLOW FAVORS
AZO HAVING THE MOST IMPACT...BUT MKG...GRR...AND BTL WILL ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST BY AROUND 03Z
WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LET UP AND A RETURN TO MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z THU.

WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK...GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 171748
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

FLURRIES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE DAY..ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MAIN
FORCING FOR EXISTING PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MOVING ANY LINGERING SNOW OUT OF MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WITH THE LAKE SHORE CONTINUING TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOWARD EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL PERK UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD GET GOING
AROUND 21Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. THE FLOW FAVORS
AZO HAVING THE MOST IMPACT...BUT MKG...GRR...AND BTL WILL ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST BY AROUND 03Z
WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LET UP AND A RETURN TO MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z THU.

WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK...GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MACZKO
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 171748
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

FLURRIES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE DAY..ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MAIN
FORCING FOR EXISTING PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MOVING ANY LINGERING SNOW OUT OF MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WITH THE LAKE SHORE CONTINUING TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOWARD EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL PERK UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD GET GOING
AROUND 21Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. THE FLOW FAVORS
AZO HAVING THE MOST IMPACT...BUT MKG...GRR...AND BTL WILL ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST BY AROUND 03Z
WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LET UP AND A RETURN TO MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z THU.

WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK...GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MACZKO
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93






000
FXUS63 KMQT 171744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1244 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE SNOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE
NE TONIGHT...DRY AIR LOOKS TO MOVE OVER CMX...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT
FAVOR LOW CONDITIONS WITH A NE WIND. AT SAW AND IWD...EXPECT
INVERSION TO LOWER THIS EVENING...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS...BUT DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THU MORNING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SOMETIME ON THU. DO EXPECT IWD TO KEEP CLOUDS
LONGER AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THAT SITE. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 171744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1244 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE SNOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE
NE TONIGHT...DRY AIR LOOKS TO MOVE OVER CMX...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT
FAVOR LOW CONDITIONS WITH A NE WIND. AT SAW AND IWD...EXPECT
INVERSION TO LOWER THIS EVENING...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS...BUT DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THU MORNING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SOMETIME ON THU. DO EXPECT IWD TO KEEP CLOUDS
LONGER AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THAT SITE. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KAPX 171733
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1233 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT
MIDDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A 1007MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
DECENT BUT SHALLOW UPWARD FORCING. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO MOVE VERY FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW AMOUNTS/SNOW ENDING

OVERVIEW...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS CONTINUING ITS
PATH INTO S LOWER AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CHANGING THE
RAIN INTO SNOW E UPPER, NC LOWER, AND NW LOWER. NE LOWER IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN OR FOG.

TODAY...MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB LOW IS TO TRANSFER THE CORE OF
THE LOW FROM WISCONSIN TO ONTARIO, AS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO S
LOWER AT THE SAME TIME, THE 700-500 MB LAYER FALLS TO 20% JUST SOUTH
OF M-55. THIS INITIALLY, GAVE A GLIMMER OF HOPE TO SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE, BUT THE 850 MB RH>90% AND WITH THE COLDER AIR (850 MB T
AROUND -10C) FOLLOWING THE 500 MB LOW, THE CLOUD DEPTH ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO -10C SO THAT ICE
PRODUCTION CONTINUES, AND THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING ACROSS N
LOWER AND WITH SOME FORCING THERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF M-72, AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-32.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR, THE ROTATION OF THE 500 MB LOW AND THE
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF M-32 AND IN E UPPER.
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DON`T END UP
OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN, SO WON`T EXPECT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THIS
TIME. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW
AND THE TROUGH AXIS ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FORCING LEFT
OVER (LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROUGH)IS THE ONLY FORCING AS THE
INSTABILITY (DELTA TS ARE ABOUT 10C TO 11C) IS STILL WEAK SO WILL
EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME SPOTTY AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST.
INHERITED A GOOD DEAL OF FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING, THINK THAT WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER
RH DROPPING, THAT FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...BACK TO NORMAL...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMMON INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING THAT NEARS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY...BUT IT`S
INSIGNIFICANT.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CLEARING SKIES...AND
SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE ISSUES.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SOME
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COULD BE STILL TRYING TO VACATE NRN LOWER EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WE
WILL BE SEEING DEEP LAYER DRYING ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH NNE FLOW DOWNSLOPING
OUT OF ONTARIO. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS DRYING WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE ACROSS NRN LOWER IN FAIRLY WEAKISH BL FLOW...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL SEEING TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE (GO FIGURE). THIS COULD
LINGER INTO MUCH/ALL OF THURSDAY NIGHT (AND EVEN FRIDAY MORNING)
WITH EFFICIENT BL COOLING (ANOTHER GO FIGURE). CROSS YOUR FINGERS
HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STRATUS THAT IS AROUND FRIDAY
MORNING...TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...SO THAT WE CAN GET THAT SUN TO
SHINE. HOPEFULLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT (FROM THE WEAK
TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...OF WHICH...IT`S NOT ATTM. STILL EXPECTING GOOD SUN.

OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES ALONG THE NRN LOWER NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIMES...PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO RISE FRIDAY. LOWS MAY NEED TO COME UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN NRN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE STRATUS IS
AROUND...AND I AM LEANING THAT WAY...SO 10-15F MOST OF EASTERN
UPPER...WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
COULD BE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW/IFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC THROUGH
22Z WITH ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOW EXPECTED
TO WIND DOWN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ON ALL THE LAKES AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES TO THE EASY AND THE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TIGHTENS UP. WILL EXPECT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE N TO NW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT
AND WILL EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR THE GUSTS
TO DROP TO BELOW 15 KNOTS. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 171733
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1233 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT
MIDDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A 1007MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
DECENT BUT SHALLOW UPWARD FORCING. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO MOVE VERY FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW AMOUNTS/SNOW ENDING

OVERVIEW...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS CONTINUING ITS
PATH INTO S LOWER AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CHANGING THE
RAIN INTO SNOW E UPPER, NC LOWER, AND NW LOWER. NE LOWER IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN OR FOG.

TODAY...MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB LOW IS TO TRANSFER THE CORE OF
THE LOW FROM WISCONSIN TO ONTARIO, AS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO S
LOWER AT THE SAME TIME, THE 700-500 MB LAYER FALLS TO 20% JUST SOUTH
OF M-55. THIS INITIALLY, GAVE A GLIMMER OF HOPE TO SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE, BUT THE 850 MB RH>90% AND WITH THE COLDER AIR (850 MB T
AROUND -10C) FOLLOWING THE 500 MB LOW, THE CLOUD DEPTH ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO -10C SO THAT ICE
PRODUCTION CONTINUES, AND THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING ACROSS N
LOWER AND WITH SOME FORCING THERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF M-72, AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-32.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR, THE ROTATION OF THE 500 MB LOW AND THE
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF M-32 AND IN E UPPER.
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DON`T END UP
OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN, SO WON`T EXPECT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THIS
TIME. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW
AND THE TROUGH AXIS ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FORCING LEFT
OVER (LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROUGH)IS THE ONLY FORCING AS THE
INSTABILITY (DELTA TS ARE ABOUT 10C TO 11C) IS STILL WEAK SO WILL
EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME SPOTTY AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST.
INHERITED A GOOD DEAL OF FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING, THINK THAT WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER
RH DROPPING, THAT FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...BACK TO NORMAL...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMMON INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING THAT NEARS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY...BUT IT`S
INSIGNIFICANT.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CLEARING SKIES...AND
SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE ISSUES.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SOME
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COULD BE STILL TRYING TO VACATE NRN LOWER EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WE
WILL BE SEEING DEEP LAYER DRYING ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH NNE FLOW DOWNSLOPING
OUT OF ONTARIO. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS DRYING WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE ACROSS NRN LOWER IN FAIRLY WEAKISH BL FLOW...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL SEEING TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE (GO FIGURE). THIS COULD
LINGER INTO MUCH/ALL OF THURSDAY NIGHT (AND EVEN FRIDAY MORNING)
WITH EFFICIENT BL COOLING (ANOTHER GO FIGURE). CROSS YOUR FINGERS
HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STRATUS THAT IS AROUND FRIDAY
MORNING...TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...SO THAT WE CAN GET THAT SUN TO
SHINE. HOPEFULLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT (FROM THE WEAK
TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...OF WHICH...IT`S NOT ATTM. STILL EXPECTING GOOD SUN.

OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES ALONG THE NRN LOWER NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIMES...PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO RISE FRIDAY. LOWS MAY NEED TO COME UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN NRN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE STRATUS IS
AROUND...AND I AM LEANING THAT WAY...SO 10-15F MOST OF EASTERN
UPPER...WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
COULD BE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW/IFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC THROUGH
22Z WITH ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOW EXPECTED
TO WIND DOWN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ON ALL THE LAKES AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES TO THE EASY AND THE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TIGHTENS UP. WILL EXPECT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE N TO NW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT
AND WILL EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR THE GUSTS
TO DROP TO BELOW 15 KNOTS. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 171733
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1233 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT
MIDDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A 1007MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
DECENT BUT SHALLOW UPWARD FORCING. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO MOVE VERY FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW AMOUNTS/SNOW ENDING

OVERVIEW...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS CONTINUING ITS
PATH INTO S LOWER AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CHANGING THE
RAIN INTO SNOW E UPPER, NC LOWER, AND NW LOWER. NE LOWER IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN OR FOG.

TODAY...MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB LOW IS TO TRANSFER THE CORE OF
THE LOW FROM WISCONSIN TO ONTARIO, AS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO S
LOWER AT THE SAME TIME, THE 700-500 MB LAYER FALLS TO 20% JUST SOUTH
OF M-55. THIS INITIALLY, GAVE A GLIMMER OF HOPE TO SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE, BUT THE 850 MB RH>90% AND WITH THE COLDER AIR (850 MB T
AROUND -10C) FOLLOWING THE 500 MB LOW, THE CLOUD DEPTH ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO -10C SO THAT ICE
PRODUCTION CONTINUES, AND THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING ACROSS N
LOWER AND WITH SOME FORCING THERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF M-72, AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-32.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR, THE ROTATION OF THE 500 MB LOW AND THE
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF M-32 AND IN E UPPER.
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DON`T END UP
OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN, SO WON`T EXPECT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THIS
TIME. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW
AND THE TROUGH AXIS ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FORCING LEFT
OVER (LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROUGH)IS THE ONLY FORCING AS THE
INSTABILITY (DELTA TS ARE ABOUT 10C TO 11C) IS STILL WEAK SO WILL
EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME SPOTTY AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST.
INHERITED A GOOD DEAL OF FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING, THINK THAT WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER
RH DROPPING, THAT FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...BACK TO NORMAL...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMMON INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING THAT NEARS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY...BUT IT`S
INSIGNIFICANT.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CLEARING SKIES...AND
SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE ISSUES.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SOME
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COULD BE STILL TRYING TO VACATE NRN LOWER EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WE
WILL BE SEEING DEEP LAYER DRYING ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH NNE FLOW DOWNSLOPING
OUT OF ONTARIO. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS DRYING WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE ACROSS NRN LOWER IN FAIRLY WEAKISH BL FLOW...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL SEEING TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE (GO FIGURE). THIS COULD
LINGER INTO MUCH/ALL OF THURSDAY NIGHT (AND EVEN FRIDAY MORNING)
WITH EFFICIENT BL COOLING (ANOTHER GO FIGURE). CROSS YOUR FINGERS
HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STRATUS THAT IS AROUND FRIDAY
MORNING...TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...SO THAT WE CAN GET THAT SUN TO
SHINE. HOPEFULLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT (FROM THE WEAK
TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...OF WHICH...IT`S NOT ATTM. STILL EXPECTING GOOD SUN.

OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES ALONG THE NRN LOWER NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIMES...PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO RISE FRIDAY. LOWS MAY NEED TO COME UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN NRN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE STRATUS IS
AROUND...AND I AM LEANING THAT WAY...SO 10-15F MOST OF EASTERN
UPPER...WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
COULD BE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW/IFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC THROUGH
22Z WITH ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOW EXPECTED
TO WIND DOWN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ON ALL THE LAKES AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES TO THE EASY AND THE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TIGHTENS UP. WILL EXPECT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE N TO NW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT
AND WILL EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR THE GUSTS
TO DROP TO BELOW 15 KNOTS. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 171733
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1233 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT
MIDDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A 1007MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
DECENT BUT SHALLOW UPWARD FORCING. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO MOVE VERY FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW AMOUNTS/SNOW ENDING

OVERVIEW...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS CONTINUING ITS
PATH INTO S LOWER AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CHANGING THE
RAIN INTO SNOW E UPPER, NC LOWER, AND NW LOWER. NE LOWER IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN OR FOG.

TODAY...MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB LOW IS TO TRANSFER THE CORE OF
THE LOW FROM WISCONSIN TO ONTARIO, AS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO S
LOWER AT THE SAME TIME, THE 700-500 MB LAYER FALLS TO 20% JUST SOUTH
OF M-55. THIS INITIALLY, GAVE A GLIMMER OF HOPE TO SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE, BUT THE 850 MB RH>90% AND WITH THE COLDER AIR (850 MB T
AROUND -10C) FOLLOWING THE 500 MB LOW, THE CLOUD DEPTH ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO -10C SO THAT ICE
PRODUCTION CONTINUES, AND THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING ACROSS N
LOWER AND WITH SOME FORCING THERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF M-72, AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-32.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR, THE ROTATION OF THE 500 MB LOW AND THE
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF M-32 AND IN E UPPER.
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DON`T END UP
OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN, SO WON`T EXPECT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THIS
TIME. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW
AND THE TROUGH AXIS ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FORCING LEFT
OVER (LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROUGH)IS THE ONLY FORCING AS THE
INSTABILITY (DELTA TS ARE ABOUT 10C TO 11C) IS STILL WEAK SO WILL
EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME SPOTTY AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST.
INHERITED A GOOD DEAL OF FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING, THINK THAT WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER
RH DROPPING, THAT FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...BACK TO NORMAL...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMMON INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING THAT NEARS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY...BUT IT`S
INSIGNIFICANT.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CLEARING SKIES...AND
SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE ISSUES.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SOME
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COULD BE STILL TRYING TO VACATE NRN LOWER EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WE
WILL BE SEEING DEEP LAYER DRYING ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH NNE FLOW DOWNSLOPING
OUT OF ONTARIO. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS DRYING WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE ACROSS NRN LOWER IN FAIRLY WEAKISH BL FLOW...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL SEEING TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE (GO FIGURE). THIS COULD
LINGER INTO MUCH/ALL OF THURSDAY NIGHT (AND EVEN FRIDAY MORNING)
WITH EFFICIENT BL COOLING (ANOTHER GO FIGURE). CROSS YOUR FINGERS
HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STRATUS THAT IS AROUND FRIDAY
MORNING...TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...SO THAT WE CAN GET THAT SUN TO
SHINE. HOPEFULLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT (FROM THE WEAK
TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...OF WHICH...IT`S NOT ATTM. STILL EXPECTING GOOD SUN.

OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES ALONG THE NRN LOWER NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIMES...PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO RISE FRIDAY. LOWS MAY NEED TO COME UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN NRN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE STRATUS IS
AROUND...AND I AM LEANING THAT WAY...SO 10-15F MOST OF EASTERN
UPPER...WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
COULD BE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW/IFR VISIBILITIES AT TVC THROUGH
22Z WITH ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOW EXPECTED
TO WIND DOWN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ON ALL THE LAKES AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES TO THE EASY AND THE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TIGHTENS UP. WILL EXPECT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE N TO NW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT
AND WILL EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR THE GUSTS
TO DROP TO BELOW 15 KNOTS. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KDTX 171729
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1229 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED UNDER AN INVERSION
THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES THAT GRADUALLY RISE
FROM MVFR TO VFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
MIXED LAYER INCREASES IN DEPTH AND SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN. TIMING OF WHEN CEILINGS WILL RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER...AS FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ADDS SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE NORTH OF DET. AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND LAKE
EFFECT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LOWER BACK TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...WEAKENING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOR DTW...WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. A FEW STRAY
SNOWFLAKES ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR FOR THE
EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTER 3 DAYS OF MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...NORMAL
DECEMBER AIR IS SURGING BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S LEADING INTO LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE TRI CITIES
AND NORTHERN THUMB...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FLURRY OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SNOW ONGOING OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE
SUNRISE IS TIED TO AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR INTO MORE OF A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING
DISPLACED FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LEAVE THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE PATTERN. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE REST OF SE
MICHIGAN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND NORTH FLANK OF THE
UPPER JET AXIS THAT IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ONLY ALLOW WEAK LAKE MICHIGAN ACTIVATION WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE THIS FAR EAST IN ANY FORM GREATER THAN FLURRIES WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY TONIGHT AND LEAVE
TRAILING CYCLONIC OVERHEAD THAT WILL ALLOW A MODEST UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON EARLY BEFORE WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMING FROM NEAR -13C AT MID
AFTERNOON TO THE -8C TO -6C RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THIS AND THE
GENERAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER SW LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING
THE NORTHERN THUMB TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE ONLY REAL CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE EASTERN THUMB WITH A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS TRAJECTORY IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL OVER
CANADA...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND DIRECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS INHERITED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH THE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IF THERE ARE ANY...WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLEARING SKIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRAP MOISTURE
BETWEEN 900 AND 950 MB WHICH WILL MEAN LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PLAGUE THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON THE
CLEARING SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD AND WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DRY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THE SUPER BLEND PAINTS CHANCY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NWP MODELS KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE WET BIAS OF THE SUPER BLEND WILL REMOVE POPS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO
THE STRONGEST FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
THAT LEVEL. IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS
DOWN THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES FOR THESE ELEVATED
WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE LAKE HURON
ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG
WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA...THE CONTINUED FETCH OFF LAKE HURON WITH THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ422-442-
     443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 171729
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1229 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED UNDER AN INVERSION
THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES THAT GRADUALLY RISE
FROM MVFR TO VFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
MIXED LAYER INCREASES IN DEPTH AND SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN. TIMING OF WHEN CEILINGS WILL RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER...AS FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ADDS SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE NORTH OF DET. AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND LAKE
EFFECT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LOWER BACK TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...WEAKENING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOR DTW...WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. A FEW STRAY
SNOWFLAKES ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR FOR THE
EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTER 3 DAYS OF MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...NORMAL
DECEMBER AIR IS SURGING BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S LEADING INTO LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE TRI CITIES
AND NORTHERN THUMB...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FLURRY OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SNOW ONGOING OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE
SUNRISE IS TIED TO AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR INTO MORE OF A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING
DISPLACED FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LEAVE THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE PATTERN. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE REST OF SE
MICHIGAN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND NORTH FLANK OF THE
UPPER JET AXIS THAT IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ONLY ALLOW WEAK LAKE MICHIGAN ACTIVATION WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE THIS FAR EAST IN ANY FORM GREATER THAN FLURRIES WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY TONIGHT AND LEAVE
TRAILING CYCLONIC OVERHEAD THAT WILL ALLOW A MODEST UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON EARLY BEFORE WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMING FROM NEAR -13C AT MID
AFTERNOON TO THE -8C TO -6C RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THIS AND THE
GENERAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER SW LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING
THE NORTHERN THUMB TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE ONLY REAL CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE EASTERN THUMB WITH A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS TRAJECTORY IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL OVER
CANADA...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND DIRECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS INHERITED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH THE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IF THERE ARE ANY...WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLEARING SKIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRAP MOISTURE
BETWEEN 900 AND 950 MB WHICH WILL MEAN LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PLAGUE THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON THE
CLEARING SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD AND WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DRY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THE SUPER BLEND PAINTS CHANCY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NWP MODELS KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE WET BIAS OF THE SUPER BLEND WILL REMOVE POPS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO
THE STRONGEST FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
THAT LEVEL. IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS
DOWN THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES FOR THESE ELEVATED
WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE LAKE HURON
ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG
WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA...THE CONTINUED FETCH OFF LAKE HURON WITH THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ422-442-
     443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 171729
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1229 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED UNDER AN INVERSION
THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES THAT GRADUALLY RISE
FROM MVFR TO VFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
MIXED LAYER INCREASES IN DEPTH AND SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN. TIMING OF WHEN CEILINGS WILL RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER...AS FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ADDS SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE NORTH OF DET. AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND LAKE
EFFECT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LOWER BACK TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...WEAKENING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOR DTW...WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. A FEW STRAY
SNOWFLAKES ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR FOR THE
EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTER 3 DAYS OF MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...NORMAL
DECEMBER AIR IS SURGING BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S LEADING INTO LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE TRI CITIES
AND NORTHERN THUMB...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FLURRY OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SNOW ONGOING OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE
SUNRISE IS TIED TO AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR INTO MORE OF A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING
DISPLACED FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LEAVE THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE PATTERN. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE REST OF SE
MICHIGAN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND NORTH FLANK OF THE
UPPER JET AXIS THAT IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ONLY ALLOW WEAK LAKE MICHIGAN ACTIVATION WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE THIS FAR EAST IN ANY FORM GREATER THAN FLURRIES WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY TONIGHT AND LEAVE
TRAILING CYCLONIC OVERHEAD THAT WILL ALLOW A MODEST UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON EARLY BEFORE WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMING FROM NEAR -13C AT MID
AFTERNOON TO THE -8C TO -6C RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THIS AND THE
GENERAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER SW LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING
THE NORTHERN THUMB TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE ONLY REAL CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE EASTERN THUMB WITH A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS TRAJECTORY IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL OVER
CANADA...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND DIRECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS INHERITED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH THE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IF THERE ARE ANY...WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLEARING SKIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRAP MOISTURE
BETWEEN 900 AND 950 MB WHICH WILL MEAN LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PLAGUE THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON THE
CLEARING SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD AND WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DRY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THE SUPER BLEND PAINTS CHANCY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NWP MODELS KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE WET BIAS OF THE SUPER BLEND WILL REMOVE POPS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO
THE STRONGEST FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
THAT LEVEL. IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS
DOWN THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES FOR THESE ELEVATED
WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE LAKE HURON
ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG
WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA...THE CONTINUED FETCH OFF LAKE HURON WITH THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ422-442-
     443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 171729
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1229 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED UNDER AN INVERSION
THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES THAT GRADUALLY RISE
FROM MVFR TO VFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
MIXED LAYER INCREASES IN DEPTH AND SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN. TIMING OF WHEN CEILINGS WILL RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER...AS FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ADDS SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE NORTH OF DET. AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND LAKE
EFFECT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LOWER BACK TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...WEAKENING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOR DTW...WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. A FEW STRAY
SNOWFLAKES ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR FOR THE
EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTER 3 DAYS OF MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...NORMAL
DECEMBER AIR IS SURGING BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S LEADING INTO LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE TRI CITIES
AND NORTHERN THUMB...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FLURRY OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SNOW ONGOING OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE
SUNRISE IS TIED TO AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR INTO MORE OF A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING
DISPLACED FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LEAVE THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE PATTERN. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE REST OF SE
MICHIGAN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND NORTH FLANK OF THE
UPPER JET AXIS THAT IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ONLY ALLOW WEAK LAKE MICHIGAN ACTIVATION WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE THIS FAR EAST IN ANY FORM GREATER THAN FLURRIES WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY TONIGHT AND LEAVE
TRAILING CYCLONIC OVERHEAD THAT WILL ALLOW A MODEST UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON EARLY BEFORE WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMING FROM NEAR -13C AT MID
AFTERNOON TO THE -8C TO -6C RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THIS AND THE
GENERAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER SW LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING
THE NORTHERN THUMB TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE ONLY REAL CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE EASTERN THUMB WITH A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS TRAJECTORY IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL OVER
CANADA...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND DIRECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS INHERITED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH THE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IF THERE ARE ANY...WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLEARING SKIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRAP MOISTURE
BETWEEN 900 AND 950 MB WHICH WILL MEAN LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PLAGUE THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON THE
CLEARING SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD AND WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DRY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THE SUPER BLEND PAINTS CHANCY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NWP MODELS KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE WET BIAS OF THE SUPER BLEND WILL REMOVE POPS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO
THE STRONGEST FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
THAT LEVEL. IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS
DOWN THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES FOR THESE ELEVATED
WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE LAKE HURON
ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG
WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA...THE CONTINUED FETCH OFF LAKE HURON WITH THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ422-442-
     443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KAPX 171645
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT
MIDDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A 1007MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
DECENT BUT SHALLOW UPWARD FORCING. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO MOVE VERY FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW AMOUNTS/SNOW ENDING

OVERVIEW...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS CONTINUING ITS
PATH INTO S LOWER AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CHANGING THE
RAIN INTO SNOW E UPPER, NC LOWER, AND NW LOWER. NE LOWER IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN OR FOG.

TODAY...MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB LOW IS TO TRANSFER THE CORE OF
THE LOW FROM WISCONSIN TO ONTARIO, AS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO S
LOWER AT THE SAME TIME, THE 700-500 MB LAYER FALLS TO 20% JUST SOUTH
OF M-55. THIS INITIALLY, GAVE A GLIMMER OF HOPE TO SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE, BUT THE 850 MB RH>90% AND WITH THE COLDER AIR (850 MB T
AROUND -10C) FOLLOWING THE 500 MB LOW, THE CLOUD DEPTH ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO -10C SO THAT ICE
PRODUCTION CONTINUES, AND THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING ACROSS N
LOWER AND WITH SOME FORCING THERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF M-72, AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-32.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR, THE ROTATION OF THE 500 MB LOW AND THE
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF M-32 AND IN E UPPER.
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DON`T END UP
OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN, SO WON`T EXPECT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THIS
TIME. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW
AND THE TROUGH AXIS ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FORCING LEFT
OVER (LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROUGH)IS THE ONLY FORCING AS THE
INSTABILITY (DELTA TS ARE ABOUT 10C TO 11C) IS STILL WEAK SO WILL
EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME SPOTTY AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST.
INHERITED A GOOD DEAL OF FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING, THINK THAT WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER
RH DROPPING, THAT FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...BACK TO NORMAL...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMMON INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING THAT NEARS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY...BUT IT`S
INSIGNIFICANT.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CLEARING SKIES...AND
SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE ISSUES.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SOME
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COULD BE STILL TRYING TO VACATE NRN LOWER EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WE
WILL BE SEEING DEEP LAYER DRYING ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH NNE FLOW DOWNSLOPING
OUT OF ONTARIO. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS DRYING WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE ACROSS NRN LOWER IN FAIRLY WEAKISH BL FLOW...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL SEEING TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE (GO FIGURE). THIS COULD
LINGER INTO MUCH/ALL OF THURSDAY NIGHT (AND EVEN FRIDAY MORNING)
WITH EFFICIENT BL COOLING (ANOTHER GO FIGURE). CROSS YOUR FINGERS
HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STRATUS THAT IS AROUND FRIDAY
MORNING...TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...SO THAT WE CAN GET THAT SUN TO
SHINE. HOPEFULLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT (FROM THE WEAK
TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...OF WHICH...IT`S NOT ATTM. STILL EXPECTING GOOD SUN.

OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES ALONG THE NRN LOWER NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIMES...PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO RISE FRIDAY. LOWS MAY NEED TO COME UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN NRN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE STRATUS IS
AROUND...AND I AM LEANING THAT WAY...SO 10-15F MOST OF EASTERN
UPPER...WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WITH CONTINUED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE THINNING WITH TIME AND RESULTING IN A SLOW DECAY OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS. STILL HOWEVER EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AROUND APN/TVC/MBL INTO TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LOW. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING IFR/MVFR THROUGH TODAY AND MVFR PREVAILING FOR
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT TODAY...REACHING AS
HIGH AS 17-22KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ON ALL THE LAKES AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES TO THE EASY AND THE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TIGHTENS UP. WILL EXPECT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE N TO NW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT
AND WILL EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR THE GUSTS
TO DROP TO BELOW 15 KNOTS. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JSL



000
FXUS63 KAPX 171645
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT
MIDDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A 1007MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
DECENT BUT SHALLOW UPWARD FORCING. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO MOVE VERY FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW AMOUNTS/SNOW ENDING

OVERVIEW...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS CONTINUING ITS
PATH INTO S LOWER AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CHANGING THE
RAIN INTO SNOW E UPPER, NC LOWER, AND NW LOWER. NE LOWER IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN OR FOG.

TODAY...MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB LOW IS TO TRANSFER THE CORE OF
THE LOW FROM WISCONSIN TO ONTARIO, AS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO S
LOWER AT THE SAME TIME, THE 700-500 MB LAYER FALLS TO 20% JUST SOUTH
OF M-55. THIS INITIALLY, GAVE A GLIMMER OF HOPE TO SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE, BUT THE 850 MB RH>90% AND WITH THE COLDER AIR (850 MB T
AROUND -10C) FOLLOWING THE 500 MB LOW, THE CLOUD DEPTH ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO -10C SO THAT ICE
PRODUCTION CONTINUES, AND THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING ACROSS N
LOWER AND WITH SOME FORCING THERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF M-72, AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-32.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR, THE ROTATION OF THE 500 MB LOW AND THE
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF M-32 AND IN E UPPER.
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DON`T END UP
OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN, SO WON`T EXPECT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THIS
TIME. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW
AND THE TROUGH AXIS ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FORCING LEFT
OVER (LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROUGH)IS THE ONLY FORCING AS THE
INSTABILITY (DELTA TS ARE ABOUT 10C TO 11C) IS STILL WEAK SO WILL
EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME SPOTTY AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST.
INHERITED A GOOD DEAL OF FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING, THINK THAT WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER
RH DROPPING, THAT FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...BACK TO NORMAL...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMMON INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING THAT NEARS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY...BUT IT`S
INSIGNIFICANT.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CLEARING SKIES...AND
SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE ISSUES.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SOME
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COULD BE STILL TRYING TO VACATE NRN LOWER EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WE
WILL BE SEEING DEEP LAYER DRYING ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH NNE FLOW DOWNSLOPING
OUT OF ONTARIO. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS DRYING WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE ACROSS NRN LOWER IN FAIRLY WEAKISH BL FLOW...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL SEEING TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE (GO FIGURE). THIS COULD
LINGER INTO MUCH/ALL OF THURSDAY NIGHT (AND EVEN FRIDAY MORNING)
WITH EFFICIENT BL COOLING (ANOTHER GO FIGURE). CROSS YOUR FINGERS
HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STRATUS THAT IS AROUND FRIDAY
MORNING...TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...SO THAT WE CAN GET THAT SUN TO
SHINE. HOPEFULLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT (FROM THE WEAK
TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...OF WHICH...IT`S NOT ATTM. STILL EXPECTING GOOD SUN.

OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES ALONG THE NRN LOWER NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIMES...PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO RISE FRIDAY. LOWS MAY NEED TO COME UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN NRN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE STRATUS IS
AROUND...AND I AM LEANING THAT WAY...SO 10-15F MOST OF EASTERN
UPPER...WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WITH CONTINUED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE THINNING WITH TIME AND RESULTING IN A SLOW DECAY OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS. STILL HOWEVER EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AROUND APN/TVC/MBL INTO TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LOW. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING IFR/MVFR THROUGH TODAY AND MVFR PREVAILING FOR
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT TODAY...REACHING AS
HIGH AS 17-22KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ON ALL THE LAKES AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES TO THE EASY AND THE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TIGHTENS UP. WILL EXPECT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE N TO NW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT
AND WILL EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR THE GUSTS
TO DROP TO BELOW 15 KNOTS. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KGRR 171615
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1115 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

FLURRIES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE DAY..ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MAIN
FORCING FOR EXISTING PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MOVING ANY LINGERING SNOW OUT OF MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WITH THE LAKE SHORE CONTINUING TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHALLOW STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS OF 2000-3000 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES. VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE SIX MILES
ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO 3-5 MILES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT GRR/MKG/AZO.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MACZKO
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93






000
FXUS63 KGRR 171615
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1115 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

FLURRIES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE DAY..ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MAIN
FORCING FOR EXISTING PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MOVING ANY LINGERING SNOW OUT OF MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WITH THE LAKE SHORE CONTINUING TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHALLOW STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS OF 2000-3000 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES. VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE SIX MILES
ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO 3-5 MILES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT GRR/MKG/AZO.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MACZKO
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KDTX 171150
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
650 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

COLDER AIR IS RUSHING INTO SE MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT HAS
EXITED INTO ONTARIO. THE ALREADY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONSISTS
OF WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT THE PEAK GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY MID AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WIND...MVFR CEILING WITH SOME FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY MIX
INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN BELOW 5000 FEET. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE RETURN OF
MVFR CEILING MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR DTW... A SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL
DRIVE WESTERLY WINDS FROM 260-280 WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN
THE SURGE OF COLD AIR DURING THE MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT
A RESTRICTION OR RESULT IN ACCUMULATION.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS FROM 260-280 TODAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTER 3 DAYS OF MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...NORMAL
DECEMBER AIR IS SURGING BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S LEADING INTO LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE TRI CITIES
AND NORTHERN THUMB...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FLURRY OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SNOW ONGOING OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE
SUNRISE IS TIED TO AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR INTO MORE OF A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING
DISPLACED FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LEAVE THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE PATTERN. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE REST OF SE
MICHIGAN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND NORTH FLANK OF THE
UPPER JET AXIS THAT IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ONLY ALLOW WEAK LAKE MICHIGAN ACTIVATION WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE THIS FAR EAST IN ANY FORM GREATER THAN FLURRIES WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY TONIGHT AND LEAVE
TRAILING CYCLONIC OVERHEAD THAT WILL ALLOW A MODEST UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON EARLY BEFORE WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMING FROM NEAR -13C AT MID
AFTERNOON TO THE -8C TO -6C RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THIS AND THE
GENERAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER SW LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING
THE NORTHERN THUMB TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE ONLY REAL CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE EASTERN THUMB WITH A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS TRAJECTORY IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL OVER
CANADA...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND DIRECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS INHERITED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH THE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IF THERE ARE ANY...WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLEARING SKIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRAP MOISTURE
BETWEEN 900 AND 950 MB WHICH WILL MEAN LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PLAGUE THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON THE
CLEARING SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD AND WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DRY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THE SUPER BLEND PAINTS CHANCY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NWP MODELS KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE WET BIAS OF THE SUPER BLEND WILL REMOVE POPS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO
THE STRONGEST FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
THAT LEVEL. IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS
DOWN THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES FOR THESE ELEVATED
WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE LAKE HURON
ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG
WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA...THE CONTINUED FETCH OFF LAKE HURON WITH THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
             LHZ422-442- 443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 171150
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
650 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

COLDER AIR IS RUSHING INTO SE MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT HAS
EXITED INTO ONTARIO. THE ALREADY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONSISTS
OF WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT THE PEAK GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY MID AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WIND...MVFR CEILING WITH SOME FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY MIX
INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN BELOW 5000 FEET. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE RETURN OF
MVFR CEILING MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR DTW... A SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL
DRIVE WESTERLY WINDS FROM 260-280 WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN
THE SURGE OF COLD AIR DURING THE MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT
A RESTRICTION OR RESULT IN ACCUMULATION.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS FROM 260-280 TODAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTER 3 DAYS OF MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...NORMAL
DECEMBER AIR IS SURGING BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S LEADING INTO LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE TRI CITIES
AND NORTHERN THUMB...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FLURRY OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SNOW ONGOING OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE
SUNRISE IS TIED TO AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR INTO MORE OF A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING
DISPLACED FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LEAVE THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE PATTERN. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE REST OF SE
MICHIGAN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND NORTH FLANK OF THE
UPPER JET AXIS THAT IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ONLY ALLOW WEAK LAKE MICHIGAN ACTIVATION WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE THIS FAR EAST IN ANY FORM GREATER THAN FLURRIES WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY TONIGHT AND LEAVE
TRAILING CYCLONIC OVERHEAD THAT WILL ALLOW A MODEST UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON EARLY BEFORE WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMING FROM NEAR -13C AT MID
AFTERNOON TO THE -8C TO -6C RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THIS AND THE
GENERAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER SW LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING
THE NORTHERN THUMB TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE ONLY REAL CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE EASTERN THUMB WITH A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS TRAJECTORY IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL OVER
CANADA...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND DIRECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS INHERITED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH THE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IF THERE ARE ANY...WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLEARING SKIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRAP MOISTURE
BETWEEN 900 AND 950 MB WHICH WILL MEAN LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PLAGUE THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON THE
CLEARING SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD AND WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DRY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THE SUPER BLEND PAINTS CHANCY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NWP MODELS KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE WET BIAS OF THE SUPER BLEND WILL REMOVE POPS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO
THE STRONGEST FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
THAT LEVEL. IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS
DOWN THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES FOR THESE ELEVATED
WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE LAKE HURON
ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG
WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA...THE CONTINUED FETCH OFF LAKE HURON WITH THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
             LHZ422-442- 443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KMQT 171147
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
647 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FROM
A LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT BRIEFLY PICKS UP. THEN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PULLS OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT
KIWD/KSAW. EVEN AS THE SNOW ENDS...MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED BELOW AN INCREASING INVERSION FROM A HIGH
ARRIVING FROM MINNESOTA. THUS...HAVE LEANED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD/KSAW DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 171147
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
647 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FROM
A LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT BRIEFLY PICKS UP. THEN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PULLS OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT
KIWD/KSAW. EVEN AS THE SNOW ENDS...MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED BELOW AN INCREASING INVERSION FROM A HIGH
ARRIVING FROM MINNESOTA. THUS...HAVE LEANED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD/KSAW DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 171147
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
647 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FROM
A LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT BRIEFLY PICKS UP. THEN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PULLS OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT
KIWD/KSAW. EVEN AS THE SNOW ENDS...MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED BELOW AN INCREASING INVERSION FROM A HIGH
ARRIVING FROM MINNESOTA. THUS...HAVE LEANED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD/KSAW DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 171147
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
647 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FROM
A LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT BRIEFLY PICKS UP. THEN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PULLS OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT
KIWD/KSAW. EVEN AS THE SNOW ENDS...MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED BELOW AN INCREASING INVERSION FROM A HIGH
ARRIVING FROM MINNESOTA. THUS...HAVE LEANED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD/KSAW DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KGRR 171146
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
646 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHALLOW STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS OF 2000-3000 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES. VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE SIX MILES
ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO 3-5 MILES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT GRR/MKG/AZO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 171119
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
WEEK TWO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING
IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
WEEK TWO...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93












000
FXUS63 KGRR 171119
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
WEEK TWO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING
IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
WEEK TWO...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93












000
FXUS63 KGRR 171119
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
WEEK TWO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING
IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
WEEK TWO...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93












000
FXUS63 KGRR 171119
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
WEEK TWO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING
IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
WEEK TWO...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93












000
FXUS63 KAPX 171118
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW AMOUNTS/SNOW ENDING

OVERVIEW...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS CONTINUING ITS
PATH INTO S LOWER AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CHANGING THE
RAIN INTO SNOW E UPPER, NC LOWER, AND NW LOWER. NE LOWER IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN OR FOG.

TODAY...MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB LOW IS TO TRANSFER THE CORE OF
THE LOW FROM WISCONSIN TO ONTARIO, AS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO S
LOWER AT THE SAME TIME, THE 700-500 MB LAYER FALLS TO 20% JUST SOUTH
OF M-55. THIS INITIALLY, GAVE A GLIMMER OF HOPE TO SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE, BUT THE 850 MB RH>90% AND WITH THE COLDER AIR (850 MB T
AROUND -10C) FOLLOWING THE 500 MB LOW, THE CLOUD DEPTH ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO -10C SO THAT ICE
PRODUCTION CONTINUES, AND THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING ACROSS N
LOWER AND WITH SOME FORCING THERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF M-72, AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-32.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR, THE ROTATION OF THE 500 MB LOW AND THE
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF M-32 AND IN E UPPER.
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DON`T END UP
OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN, SO WON`T EXPECT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THIS
TIME. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW
AND THE TROUGH AXIS ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FORCING LEFT
OVER (LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROUGH)IS THE ONLY FORCING AS THE
INSTABILITY (DELTA TS ARE ABOUT 10C TO 11C) IS STILL WEAK SO WILL
EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME SPOTTY AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST.
INHERITED A GOOD DEAL OF FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING, THINK THAT WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER
RH DROPPING, THAT FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...BACK TO NORMAL...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMMON INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING THAT NEARS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY...BUT IT`S
INSIGNIFICANT.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CLEARING SKIES...AND
SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE ISSUES.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SOME
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COULD BE STILL TRYING TO VACATE NRN LOWER EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WE
WILL BE SEEING DEEP LAYER DRYING ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH NNE FLOW DOWNSLOPING
OUT OF ONTARIO. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS DRYING WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE ACROSS NRN LOWER IN FAIRLY WEAKISH BL FLOW...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL SEEING TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE (GO FIGURE). THIS COULD
LINGER INTO MUCH/ALL OF THURSDAY NIGHT (AND EVEN FRIDAY MORNING)
WITH EFFICIENT BL COOLING (ANOTHER GO FIGURE). CROSS YOUR FINGERS
HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STRATUS THAT IS AROUND FRIDAY
MORNING...TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...SO THAT WE CAN GET THAT SUN TO
SHINE. HOPEFULLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT (FROM THE WEAK
TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...OF WHICH...IT`S NOT ATTM. STILL EXPECTING GOOD SUN.

OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES ALONG THE NRN LOWER NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIMES...PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO RISE FRIDAY. LOWS MAY NEED TO COME UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN NRN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE STRATUS IS
AROUND...AND I AM LEANING THAT WAY...SO 10-15F MOST OF EASTERN
UPPER...WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WITH CONTINUED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE THINNING WITH TIME AND RESULTING IN A SLOW DECAY OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS. STILL HOWEVER EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AROUND APN/TVC/MBL INTO TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LOW. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING IFR/MVFR THROUGH TODAY AND MVFR PREVAILING FOR
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT TODAY...REACHING AS
HIGH AS 17-22KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ON ALL THE LAKES AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EASY AND THE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW TIGHTENS UP. WILL EXPECT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE N TO NW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AND
WILL EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR THE GUSTS TO
DROP TO BELOW 15 KNOTS. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JSL



000
FXUS63 KMQT 171008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 171008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 171008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 171008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 171008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 171008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KAPX 170904
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW AMOUNTS/SNOW ENDING

OVERVIEW...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS CONTINUING ITS
PATH INTO S LOWER AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CHANGING THE
RAIN INTO SNOW E UPPER, NC LOWER, AND NW LOWER. NE LOWER IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN OR FOG.

TODAY...MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB LOW IS TO TRANSFER THE CORE OF
THE LOW FROM WISCONSIN TO ONTARIO, AS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO S
LOWER AT THE SAME TIME, THE 700-500 MB LAYER FALLS TO 20% JUST SOUTH
OF M-55. THIS INITIALLY, GAVE A GLIMMER OF HOPE TO SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE, BUT THE 850 MB RH>90% AND WITH THE COLDER AIR (850 MB T
AROUND -10C) FOLLOWING THE 500 MB LOW, THE CLOUD DEPTH ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO -10C SO THAT ICE
PRODUCTION CONTINUES, AND THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING ACROSS N
LOWER AND WITH SOME FORCING THERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF M-72, AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-32.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR, THE ROTATION OF THE 500 MB LOW AND THE
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF M-32 AND IN E UPPER.
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DON`T END UP
OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN, SO WON`T EXPECT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THIS
TIME. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW
AND THE TROUGH AXIS ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FORCING LEFT
OVER (LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROUGH)IS THE ONLY FORCING AS THE
INSTABILITY (DELTA TS ARE ABOUT 10C TO 11C) IS STILL WEAK SO WILL
EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME SPOTTY AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST.
INHERITED A GOOD DEAL OF FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING, THINK THAT WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER
RH DROPPING, THAT FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...BACK TO NORMAL...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMMON INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING THAT NEARS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY...BUT IT`S
INSIGNIFICANT.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CLEARING SKIES...AND
SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE ISSUES.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SOME
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COULD BE STILL TRYING TO VACATE NRN LOWER EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WE
WILL BE SEEING DEEP LAYER DRYING ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH NNE FLOW DOWNSLOPING
OUT OF ONTARIO. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS DRYING WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE ACROSS NRN LOWER IN FAIRLY WEAKISH BL FLOW...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL SEEING TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE (GO FIGURE). THIS COULD
LINGER INTO MUCH/ALL OF THURSDAY NIGHT (AND EVEN FRIDAY MORNING)
WITH EFFICIENT BL COOLING (ANOTHER GO FIGURE). CROSS YOUR FINGERS
HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STRATUS THAT IS AROUND FRIDAY
MORNING...TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...SO THAT WE CAN GET THAT SUN TO
SHINE. HOPEFULLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT (FROM THE WEAK
TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...OF WHICH...IT`S NOT ATTM. STILL EXPECTING GOOD SUN.

OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES ALONG THE NRN LOWER NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIMES...PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO RISE FRIDAY. LOWS MAY NEED TO COME UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN NRN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE STRATUS IS
AROUND...AND I AM LEANING THAT WAY...SO 10-15F MOST OF EASTERN
UPPER...WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING INTO N LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING, AS
THE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING OUT. TVC AND MBL, AND BRIEFLY AT PLN,
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING WHILE APN HASN`T SEEN ANY
PRECIPITATION SINCE THE RAIN ENDED. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROTATES INTO WISCONSIN AND THE SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
APN. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR OR LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, AS
THE VSBYS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR AS EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ON ALL THE LAKES AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EASY AND THE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW TIGHTENS UP. WILL EXPECT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE N TO NW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AND
WILL EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR THE GUSTS TO
DROP TO BELOW 15 KNOTS. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL



000
FXUS63 KAPX 170904
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW AMOUNTS/SNOW ENDING

OVERVIEW...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS CONTINUING ITS
PATH INTO S LOWER AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CHANGING THE
RAIN INTO SNOW E UPPER, NC LOWER, AND NW LOWER. NE LOWER IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN OR FOG.

TODAY...MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB LOW IS TO TRANSFER THE CORE OF
THE LOW FROM WISCONSIN TO ONTARIO, AS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO S
LOWER AT THE SAME TIME, THE 700-500 MB LAYER FALLS TO 20% JUST SOUTH
OF M-55. THIS INITIALLY, GAVE A GLIMMER OF HOPE TO SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE, BUT THE 850 MB RH>90% AND WITH THE COLDER AIR (850 MB T
AROUND -10C) FOLLOWING THE 500 MB LOW, THE CLOUD DEPTH ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO -10C SO THAT ICE
PRODUCTION CONTINUES, AND THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING ACROSS N
LOWER AND WITH SOME FORCING THERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF M-72, AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-32.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR, THE ROTATION OF THE 500 MB LOW AND THE
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF M-32 AND IN E UPPER.
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DON`T END UP
OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN, SO WON`T EXPECT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THIS
TIME. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW
AND THE TROUGH AXIS ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FORCING LEFT
OVER (LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROUGH)IS THE ONLY FORCING AS THE
INSTABILITY (DELTA TS ARE ABOUT 10C TO 11C) IS STILL WEAK SO WILL
EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME SPOTTY AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST.
INHERITED A GOOD DEAL OF FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING, THINK THAT WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER
RH DROPPING, THAT FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...BACK TO NORMAL...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMMON INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING THAT NEARS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY...BUT IT`S
INSIGNIFICANT.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CLEARING SKIES...AND
SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE ISSUES.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SOME
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COULD BE STILL TRYING TO VACATE NRN LOWER EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WE
WILL BE SEEING DEEP LAYER DRYING ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH NNE FLOW DOWNSLOPING
OUT OF ONTARIO. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS DRYING WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE ACROSS NRN LOWER IN FAIRLY WEAKISH BL FLOW...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL SEEING TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE (GO FIGURE). THIS COULD
LINGER INTO MUCH/ALL OF THURSDAY NIGHT (AND EVEN FRIDAY MORNING)
WITH EFFICIENT BL COOLING (ANOTHER GO FIGURE). CROSS YOUR FINGERS
HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STRATUS THAT IS AROUND FRIDAY
MORNING...TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...SO THAT WE CAN GET THAT SUN TO
SHINE. HOPEFULLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT (FROM THE WEAK
TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...OF WHICH...IT`S NOT ATTM. STILL EXPECTING GOOD SUN.

OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES ALONG THE NRN LOWER NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIMES...PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO RISE FRIDAY. LOWS MAY NEED TO COME UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN NRN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE STRATUS IS
AROUND...AND I AM LEANING THAT WAY...SO 10-15F MOST OF EASTERN
UPPER...WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING INTO N LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING, AS
THE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING OUT. TVC AND MBL, AND BRIEFLY AT PLN,
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING WHILE APN HASN`T SEEN ANY
PRECIPITATION SINCE THE RAIN ENDED. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROTATES INTO WISCONSIN AND THE SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
APN. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR OR LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, AS
THE VSBYS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR AS EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ON ALL THE LAKES AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EASY AND THE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW TIGHTENS UP. WILL EXPECT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE N TO NW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AND
WILL EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR THE GUSTS TO
DROP TO BELOW 15 KNOTS. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 170904
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW AMOUNTS/SNOW ENDING

OVERVIEW...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS CONTINUING ITS
PATH INTO S LOWER AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CHANGING THE
RAIN INTO SNOW E UPPER, NC LOWER, AND NW LOWER. NE LOWER IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN OR FOG.

TODAY...MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB LOW IS TO TRANSFER THE CORE OF
THE LOW FROM WISCONSIN TO ONTARIO, AS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO S
LOWER AT THE SAME TIME, THE 700-500 MB LAYER FALLS TO 20% JUST SOUTH
OF M-55. THIS INITIALLY, GAVE A GLIMMER OF HOPE TO SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE, BUT THE 850 MB RH>90% AND WITH THE COLDER AIR (850 MB T
AROUND -10C) FOLLOWING THE 500 MB LOW, THE CLOUD DEPTH ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO -10C SO THAT ICE
PRODUCTION CONTINUES, AND THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING ACROSS N
LOWER AND WITH SOME FORCING THERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF M-72, AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-32.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR, THE ROTATION OF THE 500 MB LOW AND THE
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF M-32 AND IN E UPPER.
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DON`T END UP
OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN, SO WON`T EXPECT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THIS
TIME. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW
AND THE TROUGH AXIS ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FORCING LEFT
OVER (LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROUGH)IS THE ONLY FORCING AS THE
INSTABILITY (DELTA TS ARE ABOUT 10C TO 11C) IS STILL WEAK SO WILL
EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME SPOTTY AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST.
INHERITED A GOOD DEAL OF FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING, THINK THAT WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER
RH DROPPING, THAT FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...BACK TO NORMAL...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMMON INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING THAT NEARS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY...BUT IT`S
INSIGNIFICANT.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CLEARING SKIES...AND
SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE ISSUES.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SOME
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COULD BE STILL TRYING TO VACATE NRN LOWER EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WE
WILL BE SEEING DEEP LAYER DRYING ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH NNE FLOW DOWNSLOPING
OUT OF ONTARIO. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS DRYING WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE ACROSS NRN LOWER IN FAIRLY WEAKISH BL FLOW...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL SEEING TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE (GO FIGURE). THIS COULD
LINGER INTO MUCH/ALL OF THURSDAY NIGHT (AND EVEN FRIDAY MORNING)
WITH EFFICIENT BL COOLING (ANOTHER GO FIGURE). CROSS YOUR FINGERS
HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STRATUS THAT IS AROUND FRIDAY
MORNING...TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...SO THAT WE CAN GET THAT SUN TO
SHINE. HOPEFULLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT (FROM THE WEAK
TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...OF WHICH...IT`S NOT ATTM. STILL EXPECTING GOOD SUN.

OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES ALONG THE NRN LOWER NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIMES...PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO RISE FRIDAY. LOWS MAY NEED TO COME UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN NRN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE STRATUS IS
AROUND...AND I AM LEANING THAT WAY...SO 10-15F MOST OF EASTERN
UPPER...WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING INTO N LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING, AS
THE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING OUT. TVC AND MBL, AND BRIEFLY AT PLN,
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING WHILE APN HASN`T SEEN ANY
PRECIPITATION SINCE THE RAIN ENDED. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROTATES INTO WISCONSIN AND THE SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
APN. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR OR LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, AS
THE VSBYS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR AS EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ON ALL THE LAKES AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EASY AND THE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW TIGHTENS UP. WILL EXPECT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE N TO NW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AND
WILL EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR THE GUSTS TO
DROP TO BELOW 15 KNOTS. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 170904
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW AMOUNTS/SNOW ENDING

OVERVIEW...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS CONTINUING ITS
PATH INTO S LOWER AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CHANGING THE
RAIN INTO SNOW E UPPER, NC LOWER, AND NW LOWER. NE LOWER IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN OR FOG.

TODAY...MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB LOW IS TO TRANSFER THE CORE OF
THE LOW FROM WISCONSIN TO ONTARIO, AS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO S
LOWER AT THE SAME TIME, THE 700-500 MB LAYER FALLS TO 20% JUST SOUTH
OF M-55. THIS INITIALLY, GAVE A GLIMMER OF HOPE TO SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE, BUT THE 850 MB RH>90% AND WITH THE COLDER AIR (850 MB T
AROUND -10C) FOLLOWING THE 500 MB LOW, THE CLOUD DEPTH ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO -10C SO THAT ICE
PRODUCTION CONTINUES, AND THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING ACROSS N
LOWER AND WITH SOME FORCING THERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF M-72, AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-32.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR, THE ROTATION OF THE 500 MB LOW AND THE
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF M-32 AND IN E UPPER.
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DON`T END UP
OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN, SO WON`T EXPECT ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THIS
TIME. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW
AND THE TROUGH AXIS ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FORCING LEFT
OVER (LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROUGH)IS THE ONLY FORCING AS THE
INSTABILITY (DELTA TS ARE ABOUT 10C TO 11C) IS STILL WEAK SO WILL
EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME SPOTTY AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST.
INHERITED A GOOD DEAL OF FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING, THINK THAT WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER
RH DROPPING, THAT FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

...BACK TO NORMAL...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMMON INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING THAT NEARS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY...BUT IT`S
INSIGNIFICANT.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CLEARING SKIES...AND
SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE ISSUES.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SOME
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COULD BE STILL TRYING TO VACATE NRN LOWER EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WE
WILL BE SEEING DEEP LAYER DRYING ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH NNE FLOW DOWNSLOPING
OUT OF ONTARIO. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS DRYING WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE ACROSS NRN LOWER IN FAIRLY WEAKISH BL FLOW...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL SEEING TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE (GO FIGURE). THIS COULD
LINGER INTO MUCH/ALL OF THURSDAY NIGHT (AND EVEN FRIDAY MORNING)
WITH EFFICIENT BL COOLING (ANOTHER GO FIGURE). CROSS YOUR FINGERS
HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STRATUS THAT IS AROUND FRIDAY
MORNING...TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...SO THAT WE CAN GET THAT SUN TO
SHINE. HOPEFULLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT (FROM THE WEAK
TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...OF WHICH...IT`S NOT ATTM. STILL EXPECTING GOOD SUN.

OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES ALONG THE NRN LOWER NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIMES...PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO RISE FRIDAY. LOWS MAY NEED TO COME UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN NRN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE STRATUS IS
AROUND...AND I AM LEANING THAT WAY...SO 10-15F MOST OF EASTERN
UPPER...WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING INTO N LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING, AS
THE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING OUT. TVC AND MBL, AND BRIEFLY AT PLN,
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING WHILE APN HASN`T SEEN ANY
PRECIPITATION SINCE THE RAIN ENDED. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROTATES INTO WISCONSIN AND THE SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
APN. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR OR LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, AS
THE VSBYS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR AS EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ON ALL THE LAKES AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EASY AND THE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW TIGHTENS UP. WILL EXPECT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE N TO NW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AND
WILL EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR THE GUSTS TO
DROP TO BELOW 15 KNOTS. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL



000
FXUS63 KDTX 170850
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTER 3 DAYS OF MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...NORMAL
DECEMBER AIR IS SURGING BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S LEADING INTO LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE TRI CITIES
AND NORTHERN THUMB...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FLURRY OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SNOW ONGOING OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE
SUNRISE IS TIED TO AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR INTO MORE OF A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING
DISPLACED FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LEAVE THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE PATTERN. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE REST OF SE
MICHIGAN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND NORTH FLANK OF THE
UPPER JET AXIS THAT IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ONLY ALLOW WEAK LAKE MICHIGAN ACTIVATION WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE THIS FAR EAST IN ANY FORM GREATER THAN FLURRIES WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY TONIGHT AND LEAVE
TRAILING CYCLONIC OVERHEAD THAT WILL ALLOW A MODEST UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON EARLY BEFORE WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMING FROM NEAR -13C AT MID
AFTERNOON TO THE -8C TO -6C RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THIS AND THE
GENERAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER SW LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING
THE NORTHERN THUMB TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE ONLY REAL CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE EASTERN THUMB WITH A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS TRAJECTORY IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL OVER
CANADA...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND DIRECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS INHERITED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH THE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IF THERE ARE ANY...WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLEARING SKIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRAP MOISTURE
BETWEEN 900 AND 950 MB WHICH WILL MEAN LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PLAGUE THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON THE
CLEARING SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD AND WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DRY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THE SUPER BLEND PAINTS CHANCY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NWP MODELS KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE WET BIAS OF THE SUPER BLEND WILL REMOVE POPS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO
THE STRONGEST FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
THAT LEVEL. IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS
DOWN THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES FOR THESE ELEVATED
WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE LAKE HURON
ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG
WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA...THE CONTINUED FETCH OFF LAKE HURON WITH THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

//DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING.  A GUSTY POST-COLD FRONTAL WESTERLY WIND WILL EMERGE DURING
THIS TIME...PEAK GUSTS CLIMBING INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING PERIOD.  THE ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANY
LAGGING IFR CEILING HEIGHTS TO LIFT INTO MVFR.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS THROUGH...GREATEST POTENTIAL AT MBS/FNT.
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILING ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...TURNING GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLDER
AIR FUNNELS IN.  GUSTS INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
PERIOD.  POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE LIMITED AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS BEFORE THE
AIR BECOMES COLD ENOUGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ422-442- 443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 170850
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTER 3 DAYS OF MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...NORMAL
DECEMBER AIR IS SURGING BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S LEADING INTO LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE TRI CITIES
AND NORTHERN THUMB...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FLURRY OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SNOW ONGOING OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE
SUNRISE IS TIED TO AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR INTO MORE OF A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING
DISPLACED FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LEAVE THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE PATTERN. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE REST OF SE
MICHIGAN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND NORTH FLANK OF THE
UPPER JET AXIS THAT IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ONLY ALLOW WEAK LAKE MICHIGAN ACTIVATION WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE THIS FAR EAST IN ANY FORM GREATER THAN FLURRIES WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY TONIGHT AND LEAVE
TRAILING CYCLONIC OVERHEAD THAT WILL ALLOW A MODEST UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON EARLY BEFORE WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMING FROM NEAR -13C AT MID
AFTERNOON TO THE -8C TO -6C RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THIS AND THE
GENERAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER SW LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING
THE NORTHERN THUMB TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE ONLY REAL CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE EASTERN THUMB WITH A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS TRAJECTORY IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL OVER
CANADA...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND DIRECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS INHERITED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH THE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IF THERE ARE ANY...WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLEARING SKIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRAP MOISTURE
BETWEEN 900 AND 950 MB WHICH WILL MEAN LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PLAGUE THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON THE
CLEARING SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD AND WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DRY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THE SUPER BLEND PAINTS CHANCY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NWP MODELS KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE WET BIAS OF THE SUPER BLEND WILL REMOVE POPS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO
THE STRONGEST FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
THAT LEVEL. IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS
DOWN THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES FOR THESE ELEVATED
WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE LAKE HURON
ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG
WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA...THE CONTINUED FETCH OFF LAKE HURON WITH THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

//DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING.  A GUSTY POST-COLD FRONTAL WESTERLY WIND WILL EMERGE DURING
THIS TIME...PEAK GUSTS CLIMBING INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING PERIOD.  THE ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANY
LAGGING IFR CEILING HEIGHTS TO LIFT INTO MVFR.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS THROUGH...GREATEST POTENTIAL AT MBS/FNT.
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILING ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...TURNING GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLDER
AIR FUNNELS IN.  GUSTS INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
PERIOD.  POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE LIMITED AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS BEFORE THE
AIR BECOMES COLD ENOUGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ422-442- 443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 170850
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTER 3 DAYS OF MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...NORMAL
DECEMBER AIR IS SURGING BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S LEADING INTO LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE TRI CITIES
AND NORTHERN THUMB...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FLURRY OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SNOW ONGOING OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE
SUNRISE IS TIED TO AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR INTO MORE OF A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING
DISPLACED FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LEAVE THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE PATTERN. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE REST OF SE
MICHIGAN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND NORTH FLANK OF THE
UPPER JET AXIS THAT IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ONLY ALLOW WEAK LAKE MICHIGAN ACTIVATION WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE THIS FAR EAST IN ANY FORM GREATER THAN FLURRIES WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY TONIGHT AND LEAVE
TRAILING CYCLONIC OVERHEAD THAT WILL ALLOW A MODEST UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON EARLY BEFORE WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMING FROM NEAR -13C AT MID
AFTERNOON TO THE -8C TO -6C RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THIS AND THE
GENERAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER SW LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING
THE NORTHERN THUMB TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE ONLY REAL CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE EASTERN THUMB WITH A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS TRAJECTORY IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL OVER
CANADA...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND DIRECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS INHERITED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH THE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IF THERE ARE ANY...WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLEARING SKIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRAP MOISTURE
BETWEEN 900 AND 950 MB WHICH WILL MEAN LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PLAGUE THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON THE
CLEARING SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD AND WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DRY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THE SUPER BLEND PAINTS CHANCY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NWP MODELS KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE WET BIAS OF THE SUPER BLEND WILL REMOVE POPS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO
THE STRONGEST FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
THAT LEVEL. IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS
DOWN THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES FOR THESE ELEVATED
WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE LAKE HURON
ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG
WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA...THE CONTINUED FETCH OFF LAKE HURON WITH THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

//DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING.  A GUSTY POST-COLD FRONTAL WESTERLY WIND WILL EMERGE DURING
THIS TIME...PEAK GUSTS CLIMBING INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING PERIOD.  THE ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANY
LAGGING IFR CEILING HEIGHTS TO LIFT INTO MVFR.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS THROUGH...GREATEST POTENTIAL AT MBS/FNT.
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILING ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...TURNING GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLDER
AIR FUNNELS IN.  GUSTS INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
PERIOD.  POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE LIMITED AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS BEFORE THE
AIR BECOMES COLD ENOUGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ422-442- 443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 170850
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTER 3 DAYS OF MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...NORMAL
DECEMBER AIR IS SURGING BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S LEADING INTO LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE TRI CITIES
AND NORTHERN THUMB...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FLURRY OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SNOW ONGOING OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE
SUNRISE IS TIED TO AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR INTO MORE OF A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING
DISPLACED FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LEAVE THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE PATTERN. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE REST OF SE
MICHIGAN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND NORTH FLANK OF THE
UPPER JET AXIS THAT IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ONLY ALLOW WEAK LAKE MICHIGAN ACTIVATION WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE THIS FAR EAST IN ANY FORM GREATER THAN FLURRIES WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY TONIGHT AND LEAVE
TRAILING CYCLONIC OVERHEAD THAT WILL ALLOW A MODEST UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON EARLY BEFORE WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMING FROM NEAR -13C AT MID
AFTERNOON TO THE -8C TO -6C RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THIS AND THE
GENERAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER SW LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING
THE NORTHERN THUMB TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE ONLY REAL CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE EASTERN THUMB WITH A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS TRAJECTORY IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL OVER
CANADA...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND DIRECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS INHERITED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH THE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IF THERE ARE ANY...WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLEARING SKIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRAP MOISTURE
BETWEEN 900 AND 950 MB WHICH WILL MEAN LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PLAGUE THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON THE
CLEARING SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD AND WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DRY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THE SUPER BLEND PAINTS CHANCY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NWP MODELS KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE WET BIAS OF THE SUPER BLEND WILL REMOVE POPS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO
THE STRONGEST FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
THAT LEVEL. IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS
DOWN THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES FOR THESE ELEVATED
WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE LAKE HURON
ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG
WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA...THE CONTINUED FETCH OFF LAKE HURON WITH THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

//DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING.  A GUSTY POST-COLD FRONTAL WESTERLY WIND WILL EMERGE DURING
THIS TIME...PEAK GUSTS CLIMBING INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING PERIOD.  THE ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANY
LAGGING IFR CEILING HEIGHTS TO LIFT INTO MVFR.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS THROUGH...GREATEST POTENTIAL AT MBS/FNT.
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILING ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...TURNING GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLDER
AIR FUNNELS IN.  GUSTS INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
PERIOD.  POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE LIMITED AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS BEFORE THE
AIR BECOMES COLD ENOUGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ422-442- 443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 170841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 170841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 170841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 170841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KGRR 170830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING
IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 170830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING
IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93










000
FXUS63 KGRR 170830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING
IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KAPX 170647
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
147 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ACCUMULATING WET SNOW
TONIGHT...MAINLY EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR NORTHWEST/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004MB LOW
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST QUEBEC INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN.  NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN...A SECOND SMALL UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.  RAIN SHOWERS WERE WRAPPING AROUND LOW/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER MICHIGAN...WITH SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL UPPER/NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW AHEAD OF
MINNESOTA UPPER LOW OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MORE DRIZZLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH STRONGER FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND QG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER.

SURFACE LOW WILL PULL AWAY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING...
ALLOWING WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  MINNESOTA UPPER LOW WILL
ELONGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A STRETCHED OUT
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: ONGOING PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN...AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT: EXPECTING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH EXPECT
ALL AREAS TO EVENTUALLY GET IN ON SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE RAIN AT FORECAST ISSUANCE...WITH
EXPECTATION OF A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING EARLY-MID
EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST LOWER DURING MID-
LATE EVENING...AND NORTHEAST LOWER OVERNIGHT.  BEST SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN GIVEN
COMBINATION OF HIGHEST QPF AND LONGEST DURATION OF SNOWFALL.  EXPECT
FAIRLY LOW/WETTER SNOW RATIOS TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE UPWARD
FORCING CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS/WARMER TEMPERATURES (MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ACCRETION/RIMING AND NOT DENDRITIC GROWTH).  HAVE
PAINTED A SWATH OF 1-2+ INCHES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT
TONIGHT...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER...AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTHEAST LOWER.  EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH COMBINATION OF STRONGER GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM MIXING.  WIND GUSTS OF 20-30MPH
EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

...MORE TYPICAL DECEMBER WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN UPPER AND THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO
START THE EXTENDED...WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SET TO CROSS
THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN CONDITIONS MUCH MORE
FAMILIAR TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN RESIDENTS FOR MID-DECEMBER...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW. WEATHER TURNS DECIDEDLY QUIETER TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MAIN FOCUS TIED TO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS AND ENDING OF
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ALSO NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: DECAYING DEFORMATION/SURFACE CONVERGENCE DRIVEN SNOWS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHEARS OUT THROUGH THE REGION. LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL...WITH VERY MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC SIGNATURES VIA LESS THAN STELLAR DELTA T/S AND SUB 5KT
INVERSION LEVELS. CBL BARELY REACHES FAVORABLE DGZ (IF AT ALL) WITH
INTERSECTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE/DGZ WAY UP IN THE MID LEVELS.
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS RATHER LOW AS A RESULT...AND GIVEN OTHER LIMITED
FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE...STILL THINK ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH FAR LESS
AMOUNTS AS ONE GOES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. SUPPORT CONTINUES TO WANE
HEADING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARMING OFF THE DECK PROFILES
FURTHER LIMITING ANY LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS. WILL TREND ALREADY LOW SNOW
AMOUNTS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...TENDING TO BELIEVE ANYTHING
THAT FALLS WILL BE MOSTLY FLURRIES. EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A TOUCH
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN OUT. WILL NOT GO THIS DIRECTION JUST
YET...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR SURE.

ANY LINGERING FLURRIES END QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CROSS
SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS EVEN SHOWING A STEADY EROSION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRY AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. CLEARING
CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES: BACK TO REALITY...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING INTO N LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING, AS
THE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING OUT. TVC AND MBL, AND BRIEFLY AT PLN,
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING WHILE APN HASN`T SEEN ANY
PRECIPITATION SINCE THE RAIN ENDED. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROTATES INTO WISCONSIN AND THE SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
APN. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR OR LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, AS
THE VSBYS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR AS EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR NORTHWEST LOWER NEARSHORE ZONES
THROUGH TOMORROW...AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WAVE
HEIGHTS.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 170647
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
147 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ACCUMULATING WET SNOW
TONIGHT...MAINLY EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR NORTHWEST/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004MB LOW
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST QUEBEC INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN.  NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN...A SECOND SMALL UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.  RAIN SHOWERS WERE WRAPPING AROUND LOW/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER MICHIGAN...WITH SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL UPPER/NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW AHEAD OF
MINNESOTA UPPER LOW OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MORE DRIZZLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH STRONGER FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND QG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER.

SURFACE LOW WILL PULL AWAY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING...
ALLOWING WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  MINNESOTA UPPER LOW WILL
ELONGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A STRETCHED OUT
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: ONGOING PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN...AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT: EXPECTING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH EXPECT
ALL AREAS TO EVENTUALLY GET IN ON SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE RAIN AT FORECAST ISSUANCE...WITH
EXPECTATION OF A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING EARLY-MID
EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST LOWER DURING MID-
LATE EVENING...AND NORTHEAST LOWER OVERNIGHT.  BEST SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN GIVEN
COMBINATION OF HIGHEST QPF AND LONGEST DURATION OF SNOWFALL.  EXPECT
FAIRLY LOW/WETTER SNOW RATIOS TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE UPWARD
FORCING CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS/WARMER TEMPERATURES (MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ACCRETION/RIMING AND NOT DENDRITIC GROWTH).  HAVE
PAINTED A SWATH OF 1-2+ INCHES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT
TONIGHT...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER...AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTHEAST LOWER.  EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH COMBINATION OF STRONGER GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM MIXING.  WIND GUSTS OF 20-30MPH
EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

...MORE TYPICAL DECEMBER WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN UPPER AND THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO
START THE EXTENDED...WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SET TO CROSS
THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN CONDITIONS MUCH MORE
FAMILIAR TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN RESIDENTS FOR MID-DECEMBER...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW. WEATHER TURNS DECIDEDLY QUIETER TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MAIN FOCUS TIED TO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS AND ENDING OF
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ALSO NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: DECAYING DEFORMATION/SURFACE CONVERGENCE DRIVEN SNOWS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHEARS OUT THROUGH THE REGION. LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL...WITH VERY MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC SIGNATURES VIA LESS THAN STELLAR DELTA T/S AND SUB 5KT
INVERSION LEVELS. CBL BARELY REACHES FAVORABLE DGZ (IF AT ALL) WITH
INTERSECTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE/DGZ WAY UP IN THE MID LEVELS.
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS RATHER LOW AS A RESULT...AND GIVEN OTHER LIMITED
FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE...STILL THINK ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH FAR LESS
AMOUNTS AS ONE GOES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. SUPPORT CONTINUES TO WANE
HEADING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARMING OFF THE DECK PROFILES
FURTHER LIMITING ANY LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS. WILL TREND ALREADY LOW SNOW
AMOUNTS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...TENDING TO BELIEVE ANYTHING
THAT FALLS WILL BE MOSTLY FLURRIES. EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A TOUCH
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN OUT. WILL NOT GO THIS DIRECTION JUST
YET...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR SURE.

ANY LINGERING FLURRIES END QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CROSS
SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS EVEN SHOWING A STEADY EROSION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRY AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. CLEARING
CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES: BACK TO REALITY...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING INTO N LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING, AS
THE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING OUT. TVC AND MBL, AND BRIEFLY AT PLN,
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING WHILE APN HASN`T SEEN ANY
PRECIPITATION SINCE THE RAIN ENDED. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROTATES INTO WISCONSIN AND THE SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
APN. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR OR LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, AS
THE VSBYS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR AS EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR NORTHWEST LOWER NEARSHORE ZONES
THROUGH TOMORROW...AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WAVE
HEIGHTS.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 170647
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
147 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ACCUMULATING WET SNOW
TONIGHT...MAINLY EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR NORTHWEST/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004MB LOW
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST QUEBEC INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN.  NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN...A SECOND SMALL UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.  RAIN SHOWERS WERE WRAPPING AROUND LOW/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER MICHIGAN...WITH SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL UPPER/NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW AHEAD OF
MINNESOTA UPPER LOW OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MORE DRIZZLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH STRONGER FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND QG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER.

SURFACE LOW WILL PULL AWAY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING...
ALLOWING WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  MINNESOTA UPPER LOW WILL
ELONGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A STRETCHED OUT
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: ONGOING PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN...AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT: EXPECTING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH EXPECT
ALL AREAS TO EVENTUALLY GET IN ON SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE RAIN AT FORECAST ISSUANCE...WITH
EXPECTATION OF A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING EARLY-MID
EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST LOWER DURING MID-
LATE EVENING...AND NORTHEAST LOWER OVERNIGHT.  BEST SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN GIVEN
COMBINATION OF HIGHEST QPF AND LONGEST DURATION OF SNOWFALL.  EXPECT
FAIRLY LOW/WETTER SNOW RATIOS TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE UPWARD
FORCING CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS/WARMER TEMPERATURES (MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ACCRETION/RIMING AND NOT DENDRITIC GROWTH).  HAVE
PAINTED A SWATH OF 1-2+ INCHES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT
TONIGHT...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER...AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTHEAST LOWER.  EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH COMBINATION OF STRONGER GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM MIXING.  WIND GUSTS OF 20-30MPH
EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

...MORE TYPICAL DECEMBER WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN UPPER AND THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO
START THE EXTENDED...WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SET TO CROSS
THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN CONDITIONS MUCH MORE
FAMILIAR TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN RESIDENTS FOR MID-DECEMBER...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW. WEATHER TURNS DECIDEDLY QUIETER TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MAIN FOCUS TIED TO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS AND ENDING OF
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ALSO NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: DECAYING DEFORMATION/SURFACE CONVERGENCE DRIVEN SNOWS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHEARS OUT THROUGH THE REGION. LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL...WITH VERY MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC SIGNATURES VIA LESS THAN STELLAR DELTA T/S AND SUB 5KT
INVERSION LEVELS. CBL BARELY REACHES FAVORABLE DGZ (IF AT ALL) WITH
INTERSECTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE/DGZ WAY UP IN THE MID LEVELS.
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS RATHER LOW AS A RESULT...AND GIVEN OTHER LIMITED
FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE...STILL THINK ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH FAR LESS
AMOUNTS AS ONE GOES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. SUPPORT CONTINUES TO WANE
HEADING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARMING OFF THE DECK PROFILES
FURTHER LIMITING ANY LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS. WILL TREND ALREADY LOW SNOW
AMOUNTS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...TENDING TO BELIEVE ANYTHING
THAT FALLS WILL BE MOSTLY FLURRIES. EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A TOUCH
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN OUT. WILL NOT GO THIS DIRECTION JUST
YET...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR SURE.

ANY LINGERING FLURRIES END QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CROSS
SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS EVEN SHOWING A STEADY EROSION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRY AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. CLEARING
CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES: BACK TO REALITY...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING INTO N LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING, AS
THE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING OUT. TVC AND MBL, AND BRIEFLY AT PLN,
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING WHILE APN HASN`T SEEN ANY
PRECIPITATION SINCE THE RAIN ENDED. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROTATES INTO WISCONSIN AND THE SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
APN. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR OR LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, AS
THE VSBYS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR AS EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR NORTHWEST LOWER NEARSHORE ZONES
THROUGH TOMORROW...AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WAVE
HEIGHTS.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KAPX 170647
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
147 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ACCUMULATING WET SNOW
TONIGHT...MAINLY EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR NORTHWEST/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004MB LOW
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST QUEBEC INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN.  NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN...A SECOND SMALL UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.  RAIN SHOWERS WERE WRAPPING AROUND LOW/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER MICHIGAN...WITH SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL UPPER/NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW AHEAD OF
MINNESOTA UPPER LOW OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MORE DRIZZLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH STRONGER FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND QG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER.

SURFACE LOW WILL PULL AWAY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING...
ALLOWING WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  MINNESOTA UPPER LOW WILL
ELONGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A STRETCHED OUT
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: ONGOING PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN...AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT: EXPECTING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH EXPECT
ALL AREAS TO EVENTUALLY GET IN ON SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE RAIN AT FORECAST ISSUANCE...WITH
EXPECTATION OF A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING EARLY-MID
EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST LOWER DURING MID-
LATE EVENING...AND NORTHEAST LOWER OVERNIGHT.  BEST SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN GIVEN
COMBINATION OF HIGHEST QPF AND LONGEST DURATION OF SNOWFALL.  EXPECT
FAIRLY LOW/WETTER SNOW RATIOS TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE UPWARD
FORCING CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS/WARMER TEMPERATURES (MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ACCRETION/RIMING AND NOT DENDRITIC GROWTH).  HAVE
PAINTED A SWATH OF 1-2+ INCHES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT
TONIGHT...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER...AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTHEAST LOWER.  EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH COMBINATION OF STRONGER GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM MIXING.  WIND GUSTS OF 20-30MPH
EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

...MORE TYPICAL DECEMBER WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN UPPER AND THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO
START THE EXTENDED...WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SET TO CROSS
THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN CONDITIONS MUCH MORE
FAMILIAR TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN RESIDENTS FOR MID-DECEMBER...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW. WEATHER TURNS DECIDEDLY QUIETER TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MAIN FOCUS TIED TO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS AND ENDING OF
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ALSO NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: DECAYING DEFORMATION/SURFACE CONVERGENCE DRIVEN SNOWS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHEARS OUT THROUGH THE REGION. LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL...WITH VERY MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC SIGNATURES VIA LESS THAN STELLAR DELTA T/S AND SUB 5KT
INVERSION LEVELS. CBL BARELY REACHES FAVORABLE DGZ (IF AT ALL) WITH
INTERSECTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE/DGZ WAY UP IN THE MID LEVELS.
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS RATHER LOW AS A RESULT...AND GIVEN OTHER LIMITED
FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE...STILL THINK ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH FAR LESS
AMOUNTS AS ONE GOES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. SUPPORT CONTINUES TO WANE
HEADING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARMING OFF THE DECK PROFILES
FURTHER LIMITING ANY LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS. WILL TREND ALREADY LOW SNOW
AMOUNTS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...TENDING TO BELIEVE ANYTHING
THAT FALLS WILL BE MOSTLY FLURRIES. EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A TOUCH
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN OUT. WILL NOT GO THIS DIRECTION JUST
YET...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR SURE.

ANY LINGERING FLURRIES END QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CROSS
SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS EVEN SHOWING A STEADY EROSION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRY AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. CLEARING
CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES: BACK TO REALITY...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS
TIMEFRAME LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A
WEAK WAVE THAT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP WERE TO SNEAK INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN FLURRIES AT BEST...
BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AREA-WIDE AS CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING OUT OF ALBERTA THAT QUICKLY DIVES INTO GREAT PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ITS FOCUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD (BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THE TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM(S) HAS YET TO BE NAILED DOWN. BY THE CURRENT LOOK OF
IT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NO
DOUBT PRECIP TYPE COULD PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH A MIXED BAG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING INTO N LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING, AS
THE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING OUT. TVC AND MBL, AND BRIEFLY AT PLN,
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING WHILE APN HASN`T SEEN ANY
PRECIPITATION SINCE THE RAIN ENDED. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROTATES INTO WISCONSIN AND THE SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
APN. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR OR LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, AS
THE VSBYS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR AS EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR NORTHWEST LOWER NEARSHORE ZONES
THROUGH TOMORROW...AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WAVE
HEIGHTS.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JPB



000
FXUS63 KMQT 170536
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1236 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A MODERATE TO HEAVY SN BAND HAS SET
UP FROM NEAR HOUGHTON INTO WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY UNDER COOLING CLD
TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. THE HIER RES NAMDNG5 MODEL HINTS
THIS AREA WL SEE SOME HEAVIER SN THRU THIS EVNG AS AREA OF DPVA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON CYC SIDE OF CUTOFF H5 LO
OVER NRN MN MOVING TOWARD NW WI. REPORTS AS EARLY AS MID AFTN
INDICATED 5 INCHES OF SN HAD FALLEN FM SOUTH RANGE TO CALUMET IN
HOUGHTON COUNTY. WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING ENUF SN BY THE EARLY
MRNG HRS ON WED TO REACH THE NECESSARY 10 INCHES IN 24 HRS FOR A
WARNING SN FALL...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO A WARNING
FOR ALL OF HOUGHTON COUNTY AND BARAGA COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07






000
FXUS63 KMQT 170536
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1236 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A MODERATE TO HEAVY SN BAND HAS SET
UP FROM NEAR HOUGHTON INTO WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY UNDER COOLING CLD
TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. THE HIER RES NAMDNG5 MODEL HINTS
THIS AREA WL SEE SOME HEAVIER SN THRU THIS EVNG AS AREA OF DPVA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON CYC SIDE OF CUTOFF H5 LO
OVER NRN MN MOVING TOWARD NW WI. REPORTS AS EARLY AS MID AFTN
INDICATED 5 INCHES OF SN HAD FALLEN FM SOUTH RANGE TO CALUMET IN
HOUGHTON COUNTY. WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING ENUF SN BY THE EARLY
MRNG HRS ON WED TO REACH THE NECESSARY 10 INCHES IN 24 HRS FOR A
WARNING SN FALL...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO A WARNING
FOR ALL OF HOUGHTON COUNTY AND BARAGA COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KDTX 170454
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1154 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING.  A GUSTY POST-COLD FRONTAL WESTERLY WIND WILL EMERGE DURING
THIS TIME...PEAK GUSTS CLIMBING INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING PERIOD.  THE ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANY
LAGGING IFR CEILING HEIGHTS TO LIFT INTO MVFR.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS THROUGH...GREATEST POTENTIAL AT MBS/FNT.
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILING ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...TURNING GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLDER
AIR FUNNELS IN.  GUSTS INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
PERIOD.  POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE LIMITED AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS BEFORE THE
AIR BECOMES COLD ENOUGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 951 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATE...

POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH SE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY ANCHORED ALONG THE LINEAR AXIS OF A WEAKENING
LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE EXISTING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE.  TRAILING WING OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION LEADING IN
THE SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE MAIN CLOSED CIRCULATION NOW OVER
MINNESOTA MARKING THE EDGE OF A SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MI/NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.   INBOUND COLD FRONT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...ENSUING
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  CURRENT
PLACEMENT AND DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF THE EXISTING MOISTURE PLUME
DOES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD SIMPLY A NARROW WINDOW LATE TONIGHT
FOR A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE BOTH THE UNDERLYING FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAP TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL OF LESS THAN AN INCH...FOCUSED ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
NORTHERN THUMB. GOING FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK WITH THIS
IDEA...MINOR UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO FRESHEN THE WORDING PER LATEST
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT TERM... THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH HAS AFFECTED MUCH OF THE SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF SE MI TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE EAST OF METRO
DETROIT AND PORT HURON DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW ROTATING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES...LEADING
TO INCREASING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ACROSS SE MI. THE SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS IT ROTATES INTO SE MI THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH LIFTS NORTH. THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER
MINNESOTA WILL BE THE FEATURE WHICH DRIVES THESE FORCING MECHANISM
NORTH AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE BETTER LARGER SCALE FORCING AND
SHOWER COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT /LOCATED OVER THE
THUMB REGION AS OF 19Z/ WILL BE FORCED INTO THE SRN BASIN OF LAKE
HURON THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHEAST TO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE 19Z
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW THE COLD AIR LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT STILL ALONG THE WRN SHORE
OF LOWER MI. THIS FRONT WILL NOT PUSH INTO SE MI UNTIL MUCH LATER
THIS EVENING /03Z TO 06Z/. SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ISSALOBARIC
COMPONENT ALONG THE FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL ALSO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AS TEMPS COOL
OVERNIGHT...THE COLUMN WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW.
A LINGERING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB SUGGEST
IT WILL TAKE THIS REGION /ALSO THE AREA TO SEE PRECIP PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT/ BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR AND THUS END OF PRECIP. SO THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTING
A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY
AND THUMB CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WELL DISCUSSED STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY WILL
BE SHEARING OUT AS IT DIGS DOWN AND THE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN MI. IN ADDITION...LINGERING TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MI BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. A MID
LEVEL COLD POOL...APPROACHING -27C AT 500MB...WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORT
MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND AN ARCTIC
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LOWER FROM ABOUT 500MB OVER MBS TO CLOSER TO
700MB BY THE TIME IT EXITS THE EASTERN CWA...WHILE LOSING SOME
FORCING. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AT THE SFC BECAUSE MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AIR BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM
THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE PROFILE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 0.4 INCHES WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES
COMING IN MAINLY AROUND 1 G/KG AND ALL BELOW THE INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 850MB. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH AMPLE LL CLOUD
COVER AND MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP IN THE
WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALTHOUGH
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH SOME DEGREE OF LAKE EFFECT KICKING IN. THE WILL BE MORE
CONFINED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME HIRES MODELS ARE TRYING
TO SHOW A BAND DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY BETWEEN M59 AND I94. THIS
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WITH THE POOR CONVERGENT SIGNATURE SO WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHUT OFF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN THUMB WHERE
THE MAIN LAKE HURON BAND LOOKS TO BRUSH THOSE COUNTIES...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. GUSTY W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL THE SNOW THREAT IS LOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
30S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL SPARK LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY THAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
GENERALLY KEEP COOL TEMPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 170 KT JET AND MOISTURE COMING ONSHORE IN
THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY EVENTUALLY REACH MICHIGAN TOWARD DAY
7.

MARINE...

THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
LAKES. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO THE STRONGEST
FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT THAT LEVEL. IT
SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS DOWN THOUGH
WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES STARTING WITH LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE LAKE HURON ZONES AND LAKE ST CLAIR LATE
TONIGHT FOR THESE ELEVATED WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN
SOME OF THE LAKE HURON ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER
SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 170454
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1154 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING.  A GUSTY POST-COLD FRONTAL WESTERLY WIND WILL EMERGE DURING
THIS TIME...PEAK GUSTS CLIMBING INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING PERIOD.  THE ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANY
LAGGING IFR CEILING HEIGHTS TO LIFT INTO MVFR.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS THROUGH...GREATEST POTENTIAL AT MBS/FNT.
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILING ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...TURNING GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLDER
AIR FUNNELS IN.  GUSTS INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
PERIOD.  POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE LIMITED AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS BEFORE THE
AIR BECOMES COLD ENOUGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 951 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATE...

POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH SE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY ANCHORED ALONG THE LINEAR AXIS OF A WEAKENING
LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE EXISTING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE.  TRAILING WING OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION LEADING IN
THE SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE MAIN CLOSED CIRCULATION NOW OVER
MINNESOTA MARKING THE EDGE OF A SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MI/NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.   INBOUND COLD FRONT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...ENSUING
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  CURRENT
PLACEMENT AND DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF THE EXISTING MOISTURE PLUME
DOES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD SIMPLY A NARROW WINDOW LATE TONIGHT
FOR A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE BOTH THE UNDERLYING FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAP TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL OF LESS THAN AN INCH...FOCUSED ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
NORTHERN THUMB. GOING FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK WITH THIS
IDEA...MINOR UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO FRESHEN THE WORDING PER LATEST
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT TERM... THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH HAS AFFECTED MUCH OF THE SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF SE MI TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE EAST OF METRO
DETROIT AND PORT HURON DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW ROTATING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES...LEADING
TO INCREASING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ACROSS SE MI. THE SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS IT ROTATES INTO SE MI THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH LIFTS NORTH. THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER
MINNESOTA WILL BE THE FEATURE WHICH DRIVES THESE FORCING MECHANISM
NORTH AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE BETTER LARGER SCALE FORCING AND
SHOWER COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT /LOCATED OVER THE
THUMB REGION AS OF 19Z/ WILL BE FORCED INTO THE SRN BASIN OF LAKE
HURON THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHEAST TO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE 19Z
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW THE COLD AIR LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT STILL ALONG THE WRN SHORE
OF LOWER MI. THIS FRONT WILL NOT PUSH INTO SE MI UNTIL MUCH LATER
THIS EVENING /03Z TO 06Z/. SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ISSALOBARIC
COMPONENT ALONG THE FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL ALSO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AS TEMPS COOL
OVERNIGHT...THE COLUMN WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW.
A LINGERING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB SUGGEST
IT WILL TAKE THIS REGION /ALSO THE AREA TO SEE PRECIP PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT/ BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR AND THUS END OF PRECIP. SO THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTING
A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY
AND THUMB CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WELL DISCUSSED STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY WILL
BE SHEARING OUT AS IT DIGS DOWN AND THE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN MI. IN ADDITION...LINGERING TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MI BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. A MID
LEVEL COLD POOL...APPROACHING -27C AT 500MB...WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORT
MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND AN ARCTIC
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LOWER FROM ABOUT 500MB OVER MBS TO CLOSER TO
700MB BY THE TIME IT EXITS THE EASTERN CWA...WHILE LOSING SOME
FORCING. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AT THE SFC BECAUSE MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AIR BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM
THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE PROFILE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 0.4 INCHES WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES
COMING IN MAINLY AROUND 1 G/KG AND ALL BELOW THE INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 850MB. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH AMPLE LL CLOUD
COVER AND MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP IN THE
WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALTHOUGH
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH SOME DEGREE OF LAKE EFFECT KICKING IN. THE WILL BE MORE
CONFINED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME HIRES MODELS ARE TRYING
TO SHOW A BAND DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY BETWEEN M59 AND I94. THIS
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WITH THE POOR CONVERGENT SIGNATURE SO WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHUT OFF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN THUMB WHERE
THE MAIN LAKE HURON BAND LOOKS TO BRUSH THOSE COUNTIES...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. GUSTY W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL THE SNOW THREAT IS LOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
30S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL SPARK LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY THAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
GENERALLY KEEP COOL TEMPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 170 KT JET AND MOISTURE COMING ONSHORE IN
THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY EVENTUALLY REACH MICHIGAN TOWARD DAY
7.

MARINE...

THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
LAKES. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO THE STRONGEST
FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT THAT LEVEL. IT
SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS DOWN THOUGH
WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES STARTING WITH LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE LAKE HURON ZONES AND LAKE ST CLAIR LATE
TONIGHT FOR THESE ELEVATED WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN
SOME OF THE LAKE HURON ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER
SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 170454
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1154 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING.  A GUSTY POST-COLD FRONTAL WESTERLY WIND WILL EMERGE DURING
THIS TIME...PEAK GUSTS CLIMBING INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING PERIOD.  THE ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANY
LAGGING IFR CEILING HEIGHTS TO LIFT INTO MVFR.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS THROUGH...GREATEST POTENTIAL AT MBS/FNT.
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILING ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...TURNING GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLDER
AIR FUNNELS IN.  GUSTS INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
PERIOD.  POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE LIMITED AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS BEFORE THE
AIR BECOMES COLD ENOUGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 951 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATE...

POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH SE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY ANCHORED ALONG THE LINEAR AXIS OF A WEAKENING
LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE EXISTING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE.  TRAILING WING OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION LEADING IN
THE SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE MAIN CLOSED CIRCULATION NOW OVER
MINNESOTA MARKING THE EDGE OF A SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MI/NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.   INBOUND COLD FRONT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...ENSUING
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  CURRENT
PLACEMENT AND DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF THE EXISTING MOISTURE PLUME
DOES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD SIMPLY A NARROW WINDOW LATE TONIGHT
FOR A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE BOTH THE UNDERLYING FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAP TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL OF LESS THAN AN INCH...FOCUSED ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
NORTHERN THUMB. GOING FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK WITH THIS
IDEA...MINOR UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO FRESHEN THE WORDING PER LATEST
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT TERM... THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH HAS AFFECTED MUCH OF THE SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF SE MI TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE EAST OF METRO
DETROIT AND PORT HURON DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW ROTATING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES...LEADING
TO INCREASING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ACROSS SE MI. THE SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS IT ROTATES INTO SE MI THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH LIFTS NORTH. THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER
MINNESOTA WILL BE THE FEATURE WHICH DRIVES THESE FORCING MECHANISM
NORTH AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE BETTER LARGER SCALE FORCING AND
SHOWER COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT /LOCATED OVER THE
THUMB REGION AS OF 19Z/ WILL BE FORCED INTO THE SRN BASIN OF LAKE
HURON THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHEAST TO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE 19Z
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW THE COLD AIR LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT STILL ALONG THE WRN SHORE
OF LOWER MI. THIS FRONT WILL NOT PUSH INTO SE MI UNTIL MUCH LATER
THIS EVENING /03Z TO 06Z/. SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ISSALOBARIC
COMPONENT ALONG THE FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL ALSO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AS TEMPS COOL
OVERNIGHT...THE COLUMN WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW.
A LINGERING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB SUGGEST
IT WILL TAKE THIS REGION /ALSO THE AREA TO SEE PRECIP PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT/ BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR AND THUS END OF PRECIP. SO THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTING
A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY
AND THUMB CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WELL DISCUSSED STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY WILL
BE SHEARING OUT AS IT DIGS DOWN AND THE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN MI. IN ADDITION...LINGERING TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MI BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. A MID
LEVEL COLD POOL...APPROACHING -27C AT 500MB...WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORT
MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND AN ARCTIC
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LOWER FROM ABOUT 500MB OVER MBS TO CLOSER TO
700MB BY THE TIME IT EXITS THE EASTERN CWA...WHILE LOSING SOME
FORCING. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AT THE SFC BECAUSE MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AIR BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM
THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE PROFILE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 0.4 INCHES WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES
COMING IN MAINLY AROUND 1 G/KG AND ALL BELOW THE INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 850MB. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH AMPLE LL CLOUD
COVER AND MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP IN THE
WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALTHOUGH
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH SOME DEGREE OF LAKE EFFECT KICKING IN. THE WILL BE MORE
CONFINED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME HIRES MODELS ARE TRYING
TO SHOW A BAND DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY BETWEEN M59 AND I94. THIS
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WITH THE POOR CONVERGENT SIGNATURE SO WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHUT OFF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN THUMB WHERE
THE MAIN LAKE HURON BAND LOOKS TO BRUSH THOSE COUNTIES...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. GUSTY W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL THE SNOW THREAT IS LOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
30S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL SPARK LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY THAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
GENERALLY KEEP COOL TEMPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 170 KT JET AND MOISTURE COMING ONSHORE IN
THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY EVENTUALLY REACH MICHIGAN TOWARD DAY
7.

MARINE...

THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
LAKES. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO THE STRONGEST
FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT THAT LEVEL. IT
SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS DOWN THOUGH
WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES STARTING WITH LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE LAKE HURON ZONES AND LAKE ST CLAIR LATE
TONIGHT FOR THESE ELEVATED WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN
SOME OF THE LAKE HURON ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER
SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



000
FXUS63 KDTX 170454
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1154 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING.  A GUSTY POST-COLD FRONTAL WESTERLY WIND WILL EMERGE DURING
THIS TIME...PEAK GUSTS CLIMBING INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING PERIOD.  THE ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANY
LAGGING IFR CEILING HEIGHTS TO LIFT INTO MVFR.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS THROUGH...GREATEST POTENTIAL AT MBS/FNT.
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILING ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...TURNING GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLDER
AIR FUNNELS IN.  GUSTS INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
PERIOD.  POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE LIMITED AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS BEFORE THE
AIR BECOMES COLD ENOUGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 951 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATE...

POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH SE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY ANCHORED ALONG THE LINEAR AXIS OF A WEAKENING
LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE EXISTING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE.  TRAILING WING OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION LEADING IN
THE SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE MAIN CLOSED CIRCULATION NOW OVER
MINNESOTA MARKING THE EDGE OF A SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MI/NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.   INBOUND COLD FRONT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...ENSUING
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  CURRENT
PLACEMENT AND DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF THE EXISTING MOISTURE PLUME
DOES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD SIMPLY A NARROW WINDOW LATE TONIGHT
FOR A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE BOTH THE UNDERLYING FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAP TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL OF LESS THAN AN INCH...FOCUSED ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
NORTHERN THUMB. GOING FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK WITH THIS
IDEA...MINOR UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO FRESHEN THE WORDING PER LATEST
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT TERM... THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH HAS AFFECTED MUCH OF THE SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF SE MI TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE EAST OF METRO
DETROIT AND PORT HURON DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW ROTATING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES...LEADING
TO INCREASING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ACROSS SE MI. THE SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS IT ROTATES INTO SE MI THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH LIFTS NORTH. THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER
MINNESOTA WILL BE THE FEATURE WHICH DRIVES THESE FORCING MECHANISM
NORTH AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE BETTER LARGER SCALE FORCING AND
SHOWER COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT /LOCATED OVER THE
THUMB REGION AS OF 19Z/ WILL BE FORCED INTO THE SRN BASIN OF LAKE
HURON THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHEAST TO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE 19Z
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW THE COLD AIR LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT STILL ALONG THE WRN SHORE
OF LOWER MI. THIS FRONT WILL NOT PUSH INTO SE MI UNTIL MUCH LATER
THIS EVENING /03Z TO 06Z/. SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ISSALOBARIC
COMPONENT ALONG THE FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL ALSO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AS TEMPS COOL
OVERNIGHT...THE COLUMN WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW.
A LINGERING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB SUGGEST
IT WILL TAKE THIS REGION /ALSO THE AREA TO SEE PRECIP PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT/ BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR AND THUS END OF PRECIP. SO THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTING
A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY
AND THUMB CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WELL DISCUSSED STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY WILL
BE SHEARING OUT AS IT DIGS DOWN AND THE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN MI. IN ADDITION...LINGERING TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MI BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. A MID
LEVEL COLD POOL...APPROACHING -27C AT 500MB...WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORT
MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND AN ARCTIC
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LOWER FROM ABOUT 500MB OVER MBS TO CLOSER TO
700MB BY THE TIME IT EXITS THE EASTERN CWA...WHILE LOSING SOME
FORCING. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AT THE SFC BECAUSE MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AIR BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM
THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE PROFILE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 0.4 INCHES WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES
COMING IN MAINLY AROUND 1 G/KG AND ALL BELOW THE INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 850MB. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH AMPLE LL CLOUD
COVER AND MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP IN THE
WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALTHOUGH
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH SOME DEGREE OF LAKE EFFECT KICKING IN. THE WILL BE MORE
CONFINED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME HIRES MODELS ARE TRYING
TO SHOW A BAND DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY BETWEEN M59 AND I94. THIS
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WITH THE POOR CONVERGENT SIGNATURE SO WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHUT OFF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN THUMB WHERE
THE MAIN LAKE HURON BAND LOOKS TO BRUSH THOSE COUNTIES...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. GUSTY W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL THE SNOW THREAT IS LOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
30S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL SPARK LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY THAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
GENERALLY KEEP COOL TEMPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 170 KT JET AND MOISTURE COMING ONSHORE IN
THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY EVENTUALLY REACH MICHIGAN TOWARD DAY
7.

MARINE...

THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
LAKES. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO THE STRONGEST
FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT THAT LEVEL. IT
SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS DOWN THOUGH
WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES STARTING WITH LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE LAKE HURON ZONES AND LAKE ST CLAIR LATE
TONIGHT FOR THESE ELEVATED WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN
SOME OF THE LAKE HURON ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER
SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 170451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 170451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 170451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 170451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 170451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 170451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 170451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 170451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KDTX 170251
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
951 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...

POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH SE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY ANCHORED ALONG THE LINEAR AXIS OF A WEAKENING
LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE EXISTING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE.  TRAILING WING OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION LEADING IN
THE SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE MAIN CLOSED CIRCULATION NOW OVER
MINNESOTA MARKING THE EDGE OF A SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MI/NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.   INBOUND COLD FRONT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...ENSUING
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  CURRENT
PLACEMENT AND DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF THE EXISTING MOISTURE PLUME
DOES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD SIMPLY A NARROW WINDOW LATE TONIGHT
FOR A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE BOTH THE UNDERLYING FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAP TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL OF LESS THAN AN INCH...FOCUSED ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
NORTHERN THUMB. GOING FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK WITH THIS
IDEA...MINOR UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO FRESHEN THE WORDING PER LATEST
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 616 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

//DISCUSSION...

MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTAINED WITHIN A MODEST PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
SE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.  POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS /3-5 SM/ IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CEILING
HEIGHTS.  THE ENSUING ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
/03Z-04Z/ WILL LIFT CONDITIONS INTO MVFR FOR THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD.  THIS PROCESS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY
WINDS.  PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS.

FOR DTW...SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF IFR STRATUS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINAL AIRSPACE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE EVENING.  CEILINGS
WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AFTER 05Z.  THIS WILL
ALSO REMOVE ANY LINGERING FOG/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  MVFR LEVEL
CIGS HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE FALLING AS ALL RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT TERM... THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH HAS AFFECTED MUCH OF THE SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF SE MI TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE EAST OF METRO
DETROIT AND PORT HURON DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW ROTATING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES...LEADING
TO INCREASING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ACROSS SE MI. THE SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS IT ROTATES INTO SE MI THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH LIFTS NORTH. THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER
MINNESOTA WILL BE THE FEATURE WHICH DRIVES THESE FORCING MECHANISM
NORTH AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE BETTER LARGER SCALE FORCING AND
SHOWER COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT /LOCATED OVER THE
THUMB REGION AS OF 19Z/ WILL BE FORCED INTO THE SRN BASIN OF LAKE
HURON THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHEAST TO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE 19Z
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW THE COLD AIR LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT STILL ALONG THE WRN SHORE
OF LOWER MI. THIS FRONT WILL NOT PUSH INTO SE MI UNTIL MUCH LATER
THIS EVENING /03Z TO 06Z/. SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ISSALOBARIC
COMPONENT ALONG THE FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL ALSO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AS TEMPS COOL
OVERNIGHT...THE COLUMN WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW.
A LINGERING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB SUGGEST
IT WILL TAKE THIS REGION /ALSO THE AREA TO SEE PRECIP PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT/ BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR AND THUS END OF PRECIP. SO THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTING
A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY
AND THUMB CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WELL DISCUSSED STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY WILL
BE SHEARING OUT AS IT DIGS DOWN AND THE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN MI. IN ADDITION...LINGERING TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MI BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. A MID
LEVEL COLD POOL...APPROACHING -27C AT 500MB...WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORT
MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND AN ARCTIC
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LOWER FROM ABOUT 500MB OVER MBS TO CLOSER TO
700MB BY THE TIME IT EXITS THE EASTERN CWA...WHILE LOSING SOME
FORCING. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AT THE SFC BECAUSE MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AIR BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM
THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE PROFILE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 0.4 INCHES WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES
COMING IN MAINLY AROUND 1 G/KG AND ALL BELOW THE INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 850MB. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH AMPLE LL CLOUD
COVER AND MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP IN THE
WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALTHOUGH
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH SOME DEGREE OF LAKE EFFECT KICKING IN. THE WILL BE MORE
CONFINED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME HIRES MODELS ARE TRYING
TO SHOW A BAND DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY BETWEEN M59 AND I94. THIS
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WITH THE POOR CONVERGENT SIGNATURE SO WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHUT OFF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN THUMB WHERE
THE MAIN LAKE HURON BAND LOOKS TO BRUSH THOSE COUNTIES...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. GUSTY W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL THE SNOW THREAT IS LOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
30S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL SPARK LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY THAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
GENERALLY KEEP COOL TEMPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 170 KT JET AND MOISTURE COMING ONSHORE IN
THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY EVENTUALLY REACH MICHIGAN TOWARD DAY
7.

MARINE...

THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
LAKES. MIXING DEPTHS UP TO AROUND 900MB WILL TAP INTO THE STRONGEST
FLOW WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS AT THAT LEVEL. IT
SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS DOWN THOUGH
WITH SUSTAINED FLOW PUSHING 20 KNOTS. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES STARTING WITH LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE LAKE HURON ZONES AND LAKE ST CLAIR LATE
TONIGHT FOR THESE ELEVATED WINDS. WAVES WILL ALSO REACH CRITERIA IN
SOME OF THE LAKE HURON ZONES BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG WITH SOME ICE COVER SHOWING UP IN INNER
SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......MR
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 162346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
646 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A MODERATE TO HEAVY SN BAND HAS SET
UP FROM NEAR HOUGHTON INTO WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY UNDER COOLING CLD
TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. THE HIER RES NAMDNG5 MODEL HINTS
THIS AREA WL SEE SOME HEAVIER SN THRU THIS EVNG AS AREA OF DPVA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON CYC SIDE OF CUTOFF H5 LO
OVER NRN MN MOVING TOWARD NW WI. REPORTS AS EARLY AS MID AFTN
INDICATED 5 INCHES OF SN HAD FALLEN FM SOUTH RANGE TO CALUMET IN
HOUGHTON COUNTY. WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING ENUF SN BY THE EARLY
MRNG HRS ON WED TO REACH THE NECESSARY 10 INCHES IN 24 HRS FOR A
WARNING SN FALL...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO A WARNING
FOR ALL OF HOUGHTON COUNTY AND BARAGA COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT LK ENHANCED SN TO FALL HEAVIEST THIS EVNG INTO THE EARLY
OVERNGT AS A DISTURBANCE SWINGS ESEWD THRU WI JUST TO THE S OF UPR
MI. THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IN CONCERT
WITH LK EFFECT PROCESSES WL RESULT IN STEADY SN/IFR VSBYS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THIS
SITE RELATIVE TO DEEPER MSTR/ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES TROF. IWD WL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE DEEPER MSTR AND MAY SEE IMPROVED CONDITIONS FROM
TIME TO TIME. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WEAKENS ON WED...THE SN WL DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-005-
     006-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 162346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
646 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A MODERATE TO HEAVY SN BAND HAS SET
UP FROM NEAR HOUGHTON INTO WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY UNDER COOLING CLD
TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. THE HIER RES NAMDNG5 MODEL HINTS
THIS AREA WL SEE SOME HEAVIER SN THRU THIS EVNG AS AREA OF DPVA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON CYC SIDE OF CUTOFF H5 LO
OVER NRN MN MOVING TOWARD NW WI. REPORTS AS EARLY AS MID AFTN
INDICATED 5 INCHES OF SN HAD FALLEN FM SOUTH RANGE TO CALUMET IN
HOUGHTON COUNTY. WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING ENUF SN BY THE EARLY
MRNG HRS ON WED TO REACH THE NECESSARY 10 INCHES IN 24 HRS FOR A
WARNING SN FALL...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO A WARNING
FOR ALL OF HOUGHTON COUNTY AND BARAGA COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT LK ENHANCED SN TO FALL HEAVIEST THIS EVNG INTO THE EARLY
OVERNGT AS A DISTURBANCE SWINGS ESEWD THRU WI JUST TO THE S OF UPR
MI. THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IN CONCERT
WITH LK EFFECT PROCESSES WL RESULT IN STEADY SN/IFR VSBYS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THIS
SITE RELATIVE TO DEEPER MSTR/ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES TROF. IWD WL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE DEEPER MSTR AND MAY SEE IMPROVED CONDITIONS FROM
TIME TO TIME. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WEAKENS ON WED...THE SN WL DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-005-
     006-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KGRR 162334
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
634 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS BEGIN MIX WITH WET SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE
WEST AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 162334
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
634 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS BEGIN MIX WITH WET SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE
WEST AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KDTX 162316
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
616 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTAINED WITHIN A MODEST PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
SE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.  POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS /3-5 SM/ IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CEILING
HEIGHTS.  THE ENSUING ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
/03Z-04Z/ WILL LIFT CONDITIONS INTO MVFR FOR THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD.  THIS PROCESS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY
WINDS.  PEAK GUSTS IN