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000
FXUS63 KMQT 281826
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
226 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a trough over the lower Great Lakes
this morning and a ridge over the Rockies with a shortwave north of
Lake Winnipeg. A trough develops over Lake Winnipeg 00z Thu. Quiet
weather will continue for this forecast period and will keep it dry
through tomorrow. As for temperatures, did not make too many changes
to the going forecast overall. Kept with going towards the coldest
guidance for lows tonight as light winds and clear skies will allow
for ideal radiational cooling conditions which will allow
temperatures to fall quickly with extremely dry air. This will also
allow temperatures to warm quickly on Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions over the next week, with rain and some storms likely
on Thursday.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Ridging will linger over the Great
Lakes region at the start of the period before weakening while
drifting SE through Wednesday night. Low-level moisture looks less
for Wednesday than previously thought per mixing of very dry air
this afternoon. Have thus removed mention of any showers through
Wednesday afternoon expect for far NW Lake Superior.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A sharp axis of deep
troughing over northern Ontario will swing across the CWA during
this time. Given the lack of any appreciable forcing ahead of this
trough in addition to the antecedent dry air mass, have slowed PoPs.
With the exception of the far west, precip should not reach the
ground until after midnight Wednesday/Thursday for the CWA.
Otherwise, have likely PoPs spreading west to east across the CWA
through Thursday evening. However, moisture availability still
remains a concern since better low-level moisture arrives only just
in time for the arrival of the trough across the central and east.
As for thunder chances, some embedded storms will be possible,
especially in the afternoon. Though deep layer shear will be
supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be too much
for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Monday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible far east early. Otherwise, a pleasant holiday weekend is in
store, at least through Sunday. It should be noted that guidance is
beginning to latch onto the idea of a compact trough riding along
the northern edge of a central Plains ridge on the 4th, bringing
some convective activity into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes. Still a ways out, but worth keeping an eye on over the
coming week given potential impacts for holiday activities.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Dry air and high pressure will bring clear skies and dry
weather through the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 225 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Expect winds less than 20 knots throughout this forecast period. A
cold front crossing later Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to
20 kts into Fri, strongest over the east half. Winds will diminish
to less than 15 kts late Fri into Sun as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



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000
FXUS63 KGRR 281747
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
147 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A northerly flow of cooler air will prevail today here in Michigan
as low pressure pulls off to the east. There could even be some
light rain showers...mainly early in the day. Tonight the clouds
will thin out leading to a much cooler than normal night. High
pressure tracks from the Upper Plains to the Ohio Valley by
Thursday. This fair weather system will act to provide the area
with generally dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Another
cold front arrives for Thursday Night into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The main challenge deals with the potential for rain showers on
Thursday. For now...it looks like the trend is for a slower
arrival of the precipitation.

Models have trended slower with the arrival of the precipitation
for Thursday. Forecast soundings also suggest the risk for
thunderstorms will hold off until at least 00z Fri. The GFS does
develop some instability Thursday...but the low level dewpoint
lapse rate looks unreasonably...featuring too high values. In
addition...an inversion is shown just above 700 mb. Thus it looks
like if we do end up with some instability during the day...any
rising parcels will have to push through a layer of subsidence.
The forecast soundings for Thursday also have an overall dry look
to them. Thus...will feature a dry day for nearly the entire
forecast area on Thursday.

Will hold onto a small potential for light rain showers today for
most locations. The models are suggesting the area of light rain
showers over northeast Lower Michigan will pivot south and could
clip mainly the area east of a Big Rapids to Kalamazoo line.

Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail today and into
tonight. Perhaps some 30s up around Leota in Clare county are
possible given the cooler than normal airmass in place along with
a good radiational cooling night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A cold front will bring scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Thursday night into early Friday. Only weak
instability will develop along and just ahead of the front and
moisture is somewhat limited. Most locations will likely only
receive around a quarter of an inch or less of rainfall.

The overall dry weather pattern will continue through the vast
majority of the long range fcst period with dry conditions expected
Friday afternoon through Monday with high pressure in control of the
pattern over the Great Lakes region.

Temperatures will average slightly below normal behind the front
Friday before moderating through the weekend into early next week.
High temperatures should reach well into the 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A band of MVFR clouds is sinking south through the TAF sites at
1730Z. Given the current movement and diurnal trends the MVFR
clouds should lift/move south of the TAF sites by 23Z at KJXN. VFR
clouds with bases around 4000FT may linger towards 01Z or so,
otherwise clearing skies is the general trend.

Clear skies are expected tonight and on Wednesday morning.
Northwest winds around 10 knots this afternoon will become light
north overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Conditions to remain favorable for hazardous boating and swimming
conditions today. Winds and waves will slowly subside from north
to south later this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient
weakens.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

No significant rainfall is anticipated over the next week. There
is some chance for showers Thursday night into Friday...but this
is not expected to result in much change to river levels.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...Maczko
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 281659
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1259 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow
into Upper Michigan behind a trough that has moved southeast into
lower MI. At the surface, high pressure from the nrn plains into nrn
Ontario was building into the wrn Great Lakes. With the drier air
moving in, the IR loop showed clearing over most of the CWA.

Today, As the high continues to build into the area, skies will
remain mostly clear. Although the pres gradient will weaken, nrly
flow will still be strong enough to keep offshore flow going near
Lake Michigan. With 850 mb temps in the 7C to 9C range, expect highs
from the upper 60s east to lower 70s inland west, with cool onshore
flow keeping readings closer to 60 near Lake Superior. afternoon
mixing in the dry airmass will drop dewpoints to around 40.

Tonight, Although there may be some passing high clouds overnight,g
generally favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temps
to fall toward the lower end of guidance with lows around 40 inland
and the upper 40s closer to the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions over the next week, with rain and some storms likely
on Thursday.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Ridging will linger over the Great
Lakes region at the start of the period before weakening while
drifting SE through Wednesday night. Low-level moisture looks less
for Wednesday than previously thought per mixing of very dry air
this afternoon. Have thus removed mention of any showers through
Wednesday afternoon expect for far NW Lake Superior.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A sharp axis of deep
troughing over northern Ontario will swing across the CWA during
this time. Given the lack of any appreciable forcing ahead of this
trough in addition to the antecedent dry air mass, have slowed PoPs.
With the exception of the far west, precip should not reach the
ground until after midnight Wednesday/Thursday for the CWA.
Otherwise, have likely PoPs spreading west to east across the CWA
through Thursday evening. However, moisture availability still
remains a concern since better low-level moisture arrives only just
in time for the arrival of the trough across the central and east.
As for thunder chances, some embedded storms will be possible,
especially in the afternoon. Though deep layer shear will be
supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be too much
for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Monday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible far east early. Otherwise, a pleasant holiday weekend is in
store, at least through Sunday. It should be noted that guidance is
beginning to latch onto the idea of a compact trough riding along
the northern edge of a central Plains ridge on the 4th, bringing
some convective activity into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes. Still a ways out, but worth keeping an eye on over the
coming week given potential impacts for holiday activities.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Dry air and high pressure will bring clear skies and dry
weather through the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Expect light winds less than 15 kts today into Thu as high pressure
settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front crossing later
Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into Fri, strongest
over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than 15 kts late Fri
into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 281659
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1259 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow
into Upper Michigan behind a trough that has moved southeast into
lower MI. At the surface, high pressure from the nrn plains into nrn
Ontario was building into the wrn Great Lakes. With the drier air
moving in, the IR loop showed clearing over most of the CWA.

Today, As the high continues to build into the area, skies will
remain mostly clear. Although the pres gradient will weaken, nrly
flow will still be strong enough to keep offshore flow going near
Lake Michigan. With 850 mb temps in the 7C to 9C range, expect highs
from the upper 60s east to lower 70s inland west, with cool onshore
flow keeping readings closer to 60 near Lake Superior. afternoon
mixing in the dry airmass will drop dewpoints to around 40.

Tonight, Although there may be some passing high clouds overnight,g
generally favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temps
to fall toward the lower end of guidance with lows around 40 inland
and the upper 40s closer to the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions over the next week, with rain and some storms likely
on Thursday.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Ridging will linger over the Great
Lakes region at the start of the period before weakening while
drifting SE through Wednesday night. Low-level moisture looks less
for Wednesday than previously thought per mixing of very dry air
this afternoon. Have thus removed mention of any showers through
Wednesday afternoon expect for far NW Lake Superior.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A sharp axis of deep
troughing over northern Ontario will swing across the CWA during
this time. Given the lack of any appreciable forcing ahead of this
trough in addition to the antecedent dry air mass, have slowed PoPs.
With the exception of the far west, precip should not reach the
ground until after midnight Wednesday/Thursday for the CWA.
Otherwise, have likely PoPs spreading west to east across the CWA
through Thursday evening. However, moisture availability still
remains a concern since better low-level moisture arrives only just
in time for the arrival of the trough across the central and east.
As for thunder chances, some embedded storms will be possible,
especially in the afternoon. Though deep layer shear will be
supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be too much
for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Monday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible far east early. Otherwise, a pleasant holiday weekend is in
store, at least through Sunday. It should be noted that guidance is
beginning to latch onto the idea of a compact trough riding along
the northern edge of a central Plains ridge on the 4th, bringing
some convective activity into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes. Still a ways out, but worth keeping an eye on over the
coming week given potential impacts for holiday activities.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Dry air and high pressure will bring clear skies and dry
weather through the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Expect light winds less than 15 kts today into Thu as high pressure
settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front crossing later
Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into Fri, strongest
over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than 15 kts late Fri
into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB



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000
FXUS63 KDTX 281655
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1255 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016


.AVIATION...

Temperatures barely eclipsing 60 at noon are indicative of continued
very shallow mixing in spite of what has been suggested by NWP
progs. Suspect that MVFR will still gradually improve to VFR, but
clouds will either mix out late or perhaps not at all today. Highest
confidence for ceilings to clear will simply be the eventual exit of
the moisture axis. NW wind will veer to northerly as high pressure
builds in...becoming variable tonight.

For dtw...Downsloping has proved effective in limiting ceilings so
far today. No reason to expect this to change, so will move forward
with BKN040 until the moisture axis shifts SE of the airfield 22-00z.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* High for cig aob 5kft

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

DISCUSSION...

Upper shortwave will track across Lower Michigan today. Continued
cold air advection behind last night`s frontal passage will steepen
low-level lapse rates, especially after the sun rises and surface
heating commences. Influx of low-level moisture is still ongoing
behind the front early this morning per model data and satellite
imagery. The combination of forcing from the upper trough, moisture
sliding into place, and steepening lapse rates will provide a small
chance for showers early this morning and into the afternoon. Expect
activity to remain fairly isolated as moisture depth will be limited
and as mid-level inversion strengthens/lowers as surface high
pressure and shortwave ridging over the western Great Lakes begin to
shift east. Moisture axis will also shift east with the exiting
upper trough axis this evening, allowing skies to clear overnight.
Most noticeable difference in sensible weather today will be cooler
temperatures in the post-frontal airmass. H850 temperatures falling
into the single digits above zero (C) should provide a drop in
surface temperature on the magnitude of 15 to 20 degrees F. Forecast
highs range from low to mid 70s inland, to the mid 60s over the
northern thumb where cool north flow off Lake Huron will provide an
unseasonably chilly day.

High pressure will expand into the area overnight and hold into
Thursday providing dry and quiet weather. Only other chance for rain
in the forecast (aside from isolated light stuff today) comes
Thursday night into Friday as an upper trough swings across the
area. Cold front associated with this system looks fairly weak and
there does not look to be much instability, even considering the
mostly overnight timing of the frontal passage. There is a chance
activity may linger into Friday, flaring back up along the frontal
boundary as daytime heating commences. Given lack of instability and
preceding dry airmass that must be overcome, feel chance pops are
most appropriate. Otherwise, we will see temperatures recover back
to near 80 by Thursday, with slightly cooler temperatures behind the
front again on Friday.

MARINE...
Moderate northerly wind and cooler air will keep waves elevated
today, especially over Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron where
small craft advisories remain in effect. The upper level disturbance
driving the cooler air will also produce a few patches of light rain
mainly over the open waters of Lake Huron. High pressure will bring
improved wind and wave conditions tonight through Wednesday before
exiting eastward Thursday. Light south wind will then develop ahead
of the next cold front due in the area Thursday night into Friday.
This front will bring the next chance of rain and will be similar in
strength as today in terms of wind and cooler air.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR MIZ049-055.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...HLO
MARINE.......BT


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.



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000
FXUS63 KAPX 281650
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1250 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Deep layer drying continuing to work into Northern Michigan from
the north this afternoon, pushing residual cloudiness to the
south. A few radar returns have developed over the past hour over
Northern Lake Huron as last push of mid level moisture associated
with mid level vorticity lobe rotates across the area. Temp/dwpt
spreads quite large and think that much of this will evaporate
before hitting the ground. Will include a few sprinkles closer to
Lake Huron through mid-afternoon, with otherwise dry conditions
across the area. Well below normal temperatures today, with many
areas remaining in the 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Rather deep troughing (for the
season) continues to develop across the Great Lakes at this early
hour, courtesy of cyclonically curved upper jet streak diving
southeast and strong shortwave trough digging directly overhead.
Attendant surface trough tied to that robust mid level wave, working
over a rather moist lower level environment, is managing to kick off
a southward moving band of drizzle...just heavy enough in some
locations to wet the pavement. Combine this with cool temperatures
(H8 temperatures in the mid single digits!) and north/northwest
winds, and definitely almost an early fall-like look and feel to our
weather.

Troughing reaches maturity early today, with core of negative height
anomalies rotating off to the east later today and tonight. Robust
surface high will spread overhead for the next 24 hours, with deep
northerly flow through the column. This sets the stage for strong
drying and, more importantly, a shot of some rather cool late June
air to dominate our weather through tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud departure timing today.
Temperature trends through tonight (or more precisely, just how cold
to go with those temperatures tonight).

Details: Passing surface trough will drop south of our area rather
quicky this morning, with strong drying lagging by at least a few
hours. No doubt this drying will eventually win out, but likely to
be somewhat delayed across the southeast half of the area. Clouds to
start the day, with an expected rather sharp delineation between
clouds/clear skies making headway southeast through this morning.
Expect all areas to become mostly sunny through early afternoon
(earlier as one goes north). May see some lingering drizzle for a
few hours this morning across those southeast areas. Far bigger
story will be temperatures, with backward run trajectory analysis
supporting guidance suggested temperatures only reaching into the
mid and upper 60s, with a few lucky locations in favored northwest
flow downslope regions perhaps just topping 70 degrees (and this is
despite what should be mostly sunny afternoon skies). These will be
a good 10 to 15 degrees below late June normals.

Above sets the stage for one rather chilly overnight, with abating
winds and clear skies only adding to the cooling cause. Not sure
winds will completely decouple, but all other ingredients are there
for temperatures to drop well into the 40s across interior areas.
Very possible some of our typical ice box locations in northern
lower may make a run at the upper 30s! Rather chilly indeed for
nearly being July.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

(6/29)Wednesday...High pressure continues over the region through
the daylight hours for the forecast area with a warm, dry day
expected. The next system that will affect us, is upstream with rain
expected in W Lake Superior by 00z. Models have been slowing the
approach of this system. Latest GFS and ECMWF have the rain barely
to E Upper by 12z, so have taken the pops down to slight chance, but
wouldn`t be surprised that nothing happens until much later on
Thursday morning.

(6/30)Thursday...GFS is still the faster of the models, the ECMWF
the slower, and the NAM is in between. expect that a combination of
the ECMWF/NAM solutions is probably right with the rain not
spreading across E Upper until closer to 18z As the front and the
pva from the 500 mb Shortwave trough pivots into the Upper Great
Lakes during the late morning/early afternoon. GFS and ECMWF are
closer in timing by 00z, with the GFS pushing the rain ashore into
NW Lower by 00z, and the ECMWF is just offshore a bit. Looking at
the instability, most of the convection looks to be decent, but with
the temperatures, most of the day, in the 60s/70s, CAPE will be
marginal, with the MU/SB CAPEs about 400 J/kg, but the ML CAPE only
27 J/kg. The ML CAPE typically a better indicator of severity of
thunderstorms around N MI, would think that slight chance of
thunder, with the rain showers would be more likely than just
thunderstorms. Will continue the thunder potential into the evening,
but as we get further into the evening the instability continues
downward, so that CAPE is around or less than 100 J/kg. So thinking
that thunder is very unlikely after 03z. Then just rain showers
overnight as the system continues to spread over N Lower.

Extended (Friday through Monday)...Friday is a clearing/drying day
as the last bits of the rain clears N Lower and E Upper in the
morning. This will usher in another couple of days (Friday/Saturday)
of below normal temperatures. We begin to warm again on Sunday
getting back to normal, and then above normal on Monday. There is a
chance for rain, as the models look to spin up a MCS in southern
Canada, which rides in on the NW 500 mb flow. GFS holds it together
and links it a bit with the system in the Ohio Valley. Considering
when there are systems south of the Upper Great Lakes, which cuts
off the moisture flow to the northern systems, think that the late
afternoon/early evening chances that the ECMWF are more likely,
especially as it seems fairly weak and slower at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

...VFR Conditions...

Much drier air will continue to surge into Northern Michigan this
afternoon on gusty north winds. Some lingering mid clouds (and
possibly a few sprinkles) over Northeast Lower Michigan, with
abundant sunshine elsewhere. North winds gusting up to 20kts will
dissipate by early this evening, with light winds overnight along
with clear skies. Clear skies again on Wednesday with northwest
winds around 10 knots with afternoon lake breeze development.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

SCA producing gusty north to northwest winds will continue
this afternoon on much of northern Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.
Winds begin to subside later today, and especially tonight, as
high pressure builds overhead. Light winds expected to continue
Wednesday and Wednesday night, with local lake breeze development
expected by later Wednesday morning and afternoon.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Keysor
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...Keysor
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281650
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1250 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Deep layer drying continuing to work into Northern Michigan from
the north this afternoon, pushing residual cloudiness to the
south. A few radar returns have developed over the past hour over
Northern Lake Huron as last push of mid level moisture associated
with mid level vorticity lobe rotates across the area. Temp/dwpt
spreads quite large and think that much of this will evaporate
before hitting the ground. Will include a few sprinkles closer to
Lake Huron through mid-afternoon, with otherwise dry conditions
across the area. Well below normal temperatures today, with many
areas remaining in the 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Rather deep troughing (for the
season) continues to develop across the Great Lakes at this early
hour, courtesy of cyclonically curved upper jet streak diving
southeast and strong shortwave trough digging directly overhead.
Attendant surface trough tied to that robust mid level wave, working
over a rather moist lower level environment, is managing to kick off
a southward moving band of drizzle...just heavy enough in some
locations to wet the pavement. Combine this with cool temperatures
(H8 temperatures in the mid single digits!) and north/northwest
winds, and definitely almost an early fall-like look and feel to our
weather.

Troughing reaches maturity early today, with core of negative height
anomalies rotating off to the east later today and tonight. Robust
surface high will spread overhead for the next 24 hours, with deep
northerly flow through the column. This sets the stage for strong
drying and, more importantly, a shot of some rather cool late June
air to dominate our weather through tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud departure timing today.
Temperature trends through tonight (or more precisely, just how cold
to go with those temperatures tonight).

Details: Passing surface trough will drop south of our area rather
quicky this morning, with strong drying lagging by at least a few
hours. No doubt this drying will eventually win out, but likely to
be somewhat delayed across the southeast half of the area. Clouds to
start the day, with an expected rather sharp delineation between
clouds/clear skies making headway southeast through this morning.
Expect all areas to become mostly sunny through early afternoon
(earlier as one goes north). May see some lingering drizzle for a
few hours this morning across those southeast areas. Far bigger
story will be temperatures, with backward run trajectory analysis
supporting guidance suggested temperatures only reaching into the
mid and upper 60s, with a few lucky locations in favored northwest
flow downslope regions perhaps just topping 70 degrees (and this is
despite what should be mostly sunny afternoon skies). These will be
a good 10 to 15 degrees below late June normals.

Above sets the stage for one rather chilly overnight, with abating
winds and clear skies only adding to the cooling cause. Not sure
winds will completely decouple, but all other ingredients are there
for temperatures to drop well into the 40s across interior areas.
Very possible some of our typical ice box locations in northern
lower may make a run at the upper 30s! Rather chilly indeed for
nearly being July.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

(6/29)Wednesday...High pressure continues over the region through
the daylight hours for the forecast area with a warm, dry day
expected. The next system that will affect us, is upstream with rain
expected in W Lake Superior by 00z. Models have been slowing the
approach of this system. Latest GFS and ECMWF have the rain barely
to E Upper by 12z, so have taken the pops down to slight chance, but
wouldn`t be surprised that nothing happens until much later on
Thursday morning.

(6/30)Thursday...GFS is still the faster of the models, the ECMWF
the slower, and the NAM is in between. expect that a combination of
the ECMWF/NAM solutions is probably right with the rain not
spreading across E Upper until closer to 18z As the front and the
pva from the 500 mb Shortwave trough pivots into the Upper Great
Lakes during the late morning/early afternoon. GFS and ECMWF are
closer in timing by 00z, with the GFS pushing the rain ashore into
NW Lower by 00z, and the ECMWF is just offshore a bit. Looking at
the instability, most of the convection looks to be decent, but with
the temperatures, most of the day, in the 60s/70s, CAPE will be
marginal, with the MU/SB CAPEs about 400 J/kg, but the ML CAPE only
27 J/kg. The ML CAPE typically a better indicator of severity of
thunderstorms around N MI, would think that slight chance of
thunder, with the rain showers would be more likely than just
thunderstorms. Will continue the thunder potential into the evening,
but as we get further into the evening the instability continues
downward, so that CAPE is around or less than 100 J/kg. So thinking
that thunder is very unlikely after 03z. Then just rain showers
overnight as the system continues to spread over N Lower.

Extended (Friday through Monday)...Friday is a clearing/drying day
as the last bits of the rain clears N Lower and E Upper in the
morning. This will usher in another couple of days (Friday/Saturday)
of below normal temperatures. We begin to warm again on Sunday
getting back to normal, and then above normal on Monday. There is a
chance for rain, as the models look to spin up a MCS in southern
Canada, which rides in on the NW 500 mb flow. GFS holds it together
and links it a bit with the system in the Ohio Valley. Considering
when there are systems south of the Upper Great Lakes, which cuts
off the moisture flow to the northern systems, think that the late
afternoon/early evening chances that the ECMWF are more likely,
especially as it seems fairly weak and slower at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

...VFR Conditions...

Much drier air will continue to surge into Northern Michigan this
afternoon on gusty north winds. Some lingering mid clouds (and
possibly a few sprinkles) over Northeast Lower Michigan, with
abundant sunshine elsewhere. North winds gusting up to 20kts will
dissipate by early this evening, with light winds overnight along
with clear skies. Clear skies again on Wednesday with northwest
winds around 10 knots with afternoon lake breeze development.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

SCA producing gusty north to northwest winds will continue
this afternoon on much of northern Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.
Winds begin to subside later today, and especially tonight, as
high pressure builds overhead. Light winds expected to continue
Wednesday and Wednesday night, with local lake breeze development
expected by later Wednesday morning and afternoon.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Keysor
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...Keysor
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281628
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1228 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Hydro

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A northerly flow of cooler air will prevail today here in Michigan
as low pressure pulls off to the east. There could even be some
light rain showers...mainly early in the day. Tonight the clouds
will thin out leading to a much cooler than normal night. High
pressure tracks from the Upper Plains to the Ohio Valley by
Thursday. This fair weather system will act to provide the area
with generally dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Another
cold front arrives for Thursday Night into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The main challenge deals with the potential for rain showers on
Thursday. For now...it looks like the trend is for a slower
arrival of the precipitation.

Models have trended slower with the arrival of the precipitation
for Thursday. Forecast soundings also suggest the risk for
thunderstorms will hold off until at least 00z Fri. The GFS does
develop some instability Thursday...but the low level dewpoint
lapse rate looks unreasonably...featuring too high values. In
addition...an inversion is shown just above 700 mb. Thus it looks
like if we do end up with some instability during the day...any
rising parcels will have to push through a layer of subsidence.
The forecast soundings for Thursday also have an overall dry look
to them. Thus...will feature a dry day for nearly the entire
forecast area on Thursday.

Will hold onto a small potential for light rain showers today for
most locations. The models are suggesting the area of light rain
showers over northeast Lower Michigan will pivot south and could
clip mainly the area east of a Big Rapids to Kalamazoo line.

Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail today and into
tonight. Perhaps some 30s up around Leota in Clare county are
possible given the cooler than normal airmass in place along with
a good radiational cooling night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A cold front will bring scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Thursday night into early Friday. Only weak
instability will develop along and just ahead of the front and
moisture is somewhat limited. Most locations will likely only
receive around a quarter of an inch or less of rainfall.

The overall dry weather pattern will continue through the vast
majority of the long range fcst period with dry conditions expected
Friday afternoon through Monday with high pressure in control of the
pattern over the Great Lakes region.

Temperatures will average slightly below normal behind the front
Friday before moderating through the weekend into early next week.
High temperatures should reach well into the 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 602 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Lower clouds...mainly mvfr will be around especially this morning.
Some sprinkles could occur. This afternoon...clearing conditions
are forecasted as a drier airmass filters in from the north.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Conditions to remain favorable for hazardous boating and swimming
conditions today. Winds and waves will slowly subside from north
to south later this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient
weakens.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

No significant rainfall is anticipated over the next week. There
is some chance for showers Thursday night into Friday...but this
is not expected to result in much change to river levels.


&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...Maczko
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 281127
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
727 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow
into Upper Michigan behind a trough that has moved southeast into
lower MI. At the surface, high pressure from the nrn plains into nrn
Ontario was building into the wrn Great Lakes. With the drier air
moving in, the IR loop showed clearing over most of the CWA.

Today, As the high continues to build into the area, skies will
remain mostly clear. Although the pres gradient will weaken, nrly
flow will still be strong enough to keep offshore flow going near
Lake Michigan. With 850 mb temps in the 7C to 9C range, expect highs
from the upper 60s east to lower 70s inland west, with cool onshore
flow keeping readings closer to 60 near Lake Superior. afternoon
mixing in the dry airmass will drop dewpoints to around 40.

Tonight, Although there may be some passing high clouds overnight,g
generally favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temps
to fall toward the lower end of guidance with lows around 40 inland
and the upper 40s closer to the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions over the next week, with rain and some storms likely
on Thursday.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Ridging will linger over the Great
Lakes region at the start of the period before weakening while
drifting SE through Wednesday night. Low-level moisture looks less
for Wednesday than previously thought per mixing of very dry air
this afternoon. Have thus removed mention of any showers through
Wednesday afternoon expect for far NW Lake Superior.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A sharp axis of deep
troughing over northern Ontario will swing across the CWA during
this time. Given the lack of any appreciable forcing ahead of this
trough in addition to the antecedent dry air mass, have slowed PoPs.
With the exception of the far west, precip should not reach the
ground until after midnight Wednesday/Thursday for the CWA.
Otherwise, have likely PoPs spreading west to east across the CWA
through Thursday evening. However, moisture availability still
remains a concern since better low-level moisture arrives only just
in time for the arrival of the trough across the central and east.
As for thunder chances, some embedded storms will be possible,
especially in the afternoon. Though deep layer shear will be
supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be too much
for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Monday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible far east early. Otherwise, a pleasant holiday weekend is in
store, at least through Sunday. It should be noted that guidance is
beginning to latch onto the idea of a compact trough riding along
the northern edge of a central Plains ridge on the 4th, bringing
some convective activity into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes. Still a ways out, but worth keeping an eye on over the
coming week given potential impacts for holiday activities.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 726 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

With dry air and high pressure building into the nrn Great Lakes,
mostly clear skies will prevail through the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Expect light winds less than 15 kts today into Thu as high pressure
settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front crossing later
Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into Fri, strongest
over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than 15 kts late Fri
into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 281127
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
727 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow
into Upper Michigan behind a trough that has moved southeast into
lower MI. At the surface, high pressure from the nrn plains into nrn
Ontario was building into the wrn Great Lakes. With the drier air
moving in, the IR loop showed clearing over most of the CWA.

Today, As the high continues to build into the area, skies will
remain mostly clear. Although the pres gradient will weaken, nrly
flow will still be strong enough to keep offshore flow going near
Lake Michigan. With 850 mb temps in the 7C to 9C range, expect highs
from the upper 60s east to lower 70s inland west, with cool onshore
flow keeping readings closer to 60 near Lake Superior. afternoon
mixing in the dry airmass will drop dewpoints to around 40.

Tonight, Although there may be some passing high clouds overnight,g
generally favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temps
to fall toward the lower end of guidance with lows around 40 inland
and the upper 40s closer to the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions over the next week, with rain and some storms likely
on Thursday.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Ridging will linger over the Great
Lakes region at the start of the period before weakening while
drifting SE through Wednesday night. Low-level moisture looks less
for Wednesday than previously thought per mixing of very dry air
this afternoon. Have thus removed mention of any showers through
Wednesday afternoon expect for far NW Lake Superior.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A sharp axis of deep
troughing over northern Ontario will swing across the CWA during
this time. Given the lack of any appreciable forcing ahead of this
trough in addition to the antecedent dry air mass, have slowed PoPs.
With the exception of the far west, precip should not reach the
ground until after midnight Wednesday/Thursday for the CWA.
Otherwise, have likely PoPs spreading west to east across the CWA
through Thursday evening. However, moisture availability still
remains a concern since better low-level moisture arrives only just
in time for the arrival of the trough across the central and east.
As for thunder chances, some embedded storms will be possible,
especially in the afternoon. Though deep layer shear will be
supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be too much
for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Monday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible far east early. Otherwise, a pleasant holiday weekend is in
store, at least through Sunday. It should be noted that guidance is
beginning to latch onto the idea of a compact trough riding along
the northern edge of a central Plains ridge on the 4th, bringing
some convective activity into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes. Still a ways out, but worth keeping an eye on over the
coming week given potential impacts for holiday activities.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 726 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

With dry air and high pressure building into the nrn Great Lakes,
mostly clear skies will prevail through the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Expect light winds less than 15 kts today into Thu as high pressure
settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front crossing later
Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into Fri, strongest
over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than 15 kts late Fri
into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281122
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
722 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Rather deep troughing (for the
season) continues to develop across the Great Lakes at this early
hour, courtesy of cyclonically curved upper jet streak diving
southeast and strong shortwave trough digging directly overhead.
Attendant surface trough tied to that robust mid level wave, working
over a rather moist lower level environment, is managing to kick off
a southward moving band of drizzle...just heavy enough in some
locations to wet the pavement. Combine this with cool temperatures
(H8 temperatures in the mid single digits!) and north/northwest
winds, and definitely almost an early fall-like look and feel to our
weather.

Troughing reaches maturity early today, with core of negative height
anomalies rotating off to the east later today and tonight. Robust
surface high will spread overhead for the next 24 hours, with deep
northerly flow through the column. This sets the stage for strong
drying and, more importantly, a shot of some rather cool late June
air to dominate our weather through tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud departure timing today.
Temperature trends through tonight (or more precisely, just how cold
to go with those temperatures tonight).

Details: Passing surface trough will drop south of our area rather
quicky this morning, with strong drying lagging by at least a few
hours. No doubt this drying will eventually win out, but likely to
be somewhat delayed across the southeast half of the area. Clouds to
start the day, with an expected rather sharp delineation between
clouds/clear skies making headway southeast through this morning.
Expect all areas to become mostly sunny through early afternoon
(earlier as one goes north). May see some lingering drizzle for a
few hours this morning across those southeast areas. Far bigger
story will be temperatures, with backward run trajectory analysis
supporting guidance suggested temperatures only reaching into the
mid and upper 60s, with a few lucky locations in favored northwest
flow downslope regions perhaps just topping 70 degrees (and this is
despite what should be mostly sunny afternoon skies). These will be
a good 10 to 15 degrees below late June normals.

Above sets the stage for one rather chilly overnight, with abating
winds and clear skies only adding to the cooling cause. Not sure
winds will completely decouple, but all other ingredients are there
for temperatures to drop well into the 40s across interior areas.
Very possible some of our typical ice box locations in northern
lower may make a run at the upper 30s! Rather chilly indeed for
nearly being July.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

(6/29)Wednesday...High pressure continues over the region through
the daylight hours for the forecast area with a warm, dry day
expected. The next system that will affect us, is upstream with rain
expected in W Lake Superior by 00z. Models have been slowing the
approach of this system. Latest GFS and ECMWF have the rain barely
to E Upper by 12z, so have taken the pops down to slight chance, but
wouldn`t be surprised that nothing happens until much later on
Thursday morning.

(6/30)Thursday...GFS is still the faster of the models, the ECMWF
the slower, and the NAM is in between. expect that a combination of
the ECMWF/NAM solutions is probably right with the rain not
spreading across E Upper until closer to 18z As the front and the
pva from the 500 mb Shortwave trough pivots into the Upper Great
Lakes during the late morning/early afternoon. GFS and ECMWF are
closer in timing by 00z, with the GFS pushing the rain ashore into
NW Lower by 00z, and the ECMWF is just offshore a bit. Looking at
the instability, most of the convection looks to be decent, but with
the temperatures, most of the day, in the 60s/70s, CAPE will be
marginal, with the MU/SB CAPEs about 400 J/kg, but the ML CAPE only
27 J/kg. The ML CAPE typically a better indicator of severity of
thunderstorms around N MI, would think that slight chance of
thunder, with the rain showers would be more likely than just
thunderstorms. Will continue the thunder potential into the evening,
but as we get further into the evening the instability continues
downward, so that CAPE is around or less than 100 J/kg. So thinking
that thunder is very unlikely after 03z. Then just rain showers
overnight as the system continues to spread over N Lower.

Extended (Friday through Monday)...Friday is a clearing/drying day
as the last bits of the rain clears N Lower and E Upper in the
morning. This will usher in another couple of days (Friday/Saturday)
of below normal temperatures. We begin to warm again on Sunday
getting back to normal, and then above normal on Monday. There is a
chance for rain, as the models look to spin up a MCS in southern
Canada, which rides in on the NW 500 mb flow. GFS holds it together
and links it a bit with the system in the Ohio Valley. Considering
when there are systems south of the Upper Great Lakes, which cuts
off the moisture flow to the northern systems, think that the late
afternoon/early evening chances that the ECMWF are more likely,
especially as it seems fairly weak and slower at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Band of ifr/mvfr cigs continues to drop south across the taf sites
early this morning. Sharp clearing line making steady progress
south across eastern upper Michigan, and this is expected to cross
all taf locations later this morning and afternoon. Clear skies
are then expected to last through the remainder of this taf
period. Marginally gusty north to northwest winds
today...becoming light tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

SCA producing gusty north to northwest winds will continue
into this morning on much of northern Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.
Winds begin to subside later today, and especially tonight, as high
pressure builds overhead. Light winds expected to continue Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with local lake breeze development expected by
later Wednesday morning and afternoon.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281122
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
722 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Rather deep troughing (for the
season) continues to develop across the Great Lakes at this early
hour, courtesy of cyclonically curved upper jet streak diving
southeast and strong shortwave trough digging directly overhead.
Attendant surface trough tied to that robust mid level wave, working
over a rather moist lower level environment, is managing to kick off
a southward moving band of drizzle...just heavy enough in some
locations to wet the pavement. Combine this with cool temperatures
(H8 temperatures in the mid single digits!) and north/northwest
winds, and definitely almost an early fall-like look and feel to our
weather.

Troughing reaches maturity early today, with core of negative height
anomalies rotating off to the east later today and tonight. Robust
surface high will spread overhead for the next 24 hours, with deep
northerly flow through the column. This sets the stage for strong
drying and, more importantly, a shot of some rather cool late June
air to dominate our weather through tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud departure timing today.
Temperature trends through tonight (or more precisely, just how cold
to go with those temperatures tonight).

Details: Passing surface trough will drop south of our area rather
quicky this morning, with strong drying lagging by at least a few
hours. No doubt this drying will eventually win out, but likely to
be somewhat delayed across the southeast half of the area. Clouds to
start the day, with an expected rather sharp delineation between
clouds/clear skies making headway southeast through this morning.
Expect all areas to become mostly sunny through early afternoon
(earlier as one goes north). May see some lingering drizzle for a
few hours this morning across those southeast areas. Far bigger
story will be temperatures, with backward run trajectory analysis
supporting guidance suggested temperatures only reaching into the
mid and upper 60s, with a few lucky locations in favored northwest
flow downslope regions perhaps just topping 70 degrees (and this is
despite what should be mostly sunny afternoon skies). These will be
a good 10 to 15 degrees below late June normals.

Above sets the stage for one rather chilly overnight, with abating
winds and clear skies only adding to the cooling cause. Not sure
winds will completely decouple, but all other ingredients are there
for temperatures to drop well into the 40s across interior areas.
Very possible some of our typical ice box locations in northern
lower may make a run at the upper 30s! Rather chilly indeed for
nearly being July.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

(6/29)Wednesday...High pressure continues over the region through
the daylight hours for the forecast area with a warm, dry day
expected. The next system that will affect us, is upstream with rain
expected in W Lake Superior by 00z. Models have been slowing the
approach of this system. Latest GFS and ECMWF have the rain barely
to E Upper by 12z, so have taken the pops down to slight chance, but
wouldn`t be surprised that nothing happens until much later on
Thursday morning.

(6/30)Thursday...GFS is still the faster of the models, the ECMWF
the slower, and the NAM is in between. expect that a combination of
the ECMWF/NAM solutions is probably right with the rain not
spreading across E Upper until closer to 18z As the front and the
pva from the 500 mb Shortwave trough pivots into the Upper Great
Lakes during the late morning/early afternoon. GFS and ECMWF are
closer in timing by 00z, with the GFS pushing the rain ashore into
NW Lower by 00z, and the ECMWF is just offshore a bit. Looking at
the instability, most of the convection looks to be decent, but with
the temperatures, most of the day, in the 60s/70s, CAPE will be
marginal, with the MU/SB CAPEs about 400 J/kg, but the ML CAPE only
27 J/kg. The ML CAPE typically a better indicator of severity of
thunderstorms around N MI, would think that slight chance of
thunder, with the rain showers would be more likely than just
thunderstorms. Will continue the thunder potential into the evening,
but as we get further into the evening the instability continues
downward, so that CAPE is around or less than 100 J/kg. So thinking
that thunder is very unlikely after 03z. Then just rain showers
overnight as the system continues to spread over N Lower.

Extended (Friday through Monday)...Friday is a clearing/drying day
as the last bits of the rain clears N Lower and E Upper in the
morning. This will usher in another couple of days (Friday/Saturday)
of below normal temperatures. We begin to warm again on Sunday
getting back to normal, and then above normal on Monday. There is a
chance for rain, as the models look to spin up a MCS in southern
Canada, which rides in on the NW 500 mb flow. GFS holds it together
and links it a bit with the system in the Ohio Valley. Considering
when there are systems south of the Upper Great Lakes, which cuts
off the moisture flow to the northern systems, think that the late
afternoon/early evening chances that the ECMWF are more likely,
especially as it seems fairly weak and slower at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Band of ifr/mvfr cigs continues to drop south across the taf sites
early this morning. Sharp clearing line making steady progress
south across eastern upper Michigan, and this is expected to cross
all taf locations later this morning and afternoon. Clear skies
are then expected to last through the remainder of this taf
period. Marginally gusty north to northwest winds
today...becoming light tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

SCA producing gusty north to northwest winds will continue
into this morning on much of northern Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.
Winds begin to subside later today, and especially tonight, as high
pressure builds overhead. Light winds expected to continue Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with local lake breeze development expected by
later Wednesday morning and afternoon.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281122
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
722 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Rather deep troughing (for the
season) continues to develop across the Great Lakes at this early
hour, courtesy of cyclonically curved upper jet streak diving
southeast and strong shortwave trough digging directly overhead.
Attendant surface trough tied to that robust mid level wave, working
over a rather moist lower level environment, is managing to kick off
a southward moving band of drizzle...just heavy enough in some
locations to wet the pavement. Combine this with cool temperatures
(H8 temperatures in the mid single digits!) and north/northwest
winds, and definitely almost an early fall-like look and feel to our
weather.

Troughing reaches maturity early today, with core of negative height
anomalies rotating off to the east later today and tonight. Robust
surface high will spread overhead for the next 24 hours, with deep
northerly flow through the column. This sets the stage for strong
drying and, more importantly, a shot of some rather cool late June
air to dominate our weather through tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud departure timing today.
Temperature trends through tonight (or more precisely, just how cold
to go with those temperatures tonight).

Details: Passing surface trough will drop south of our area rather
quicky this morning, with strong drying lagging by at least a few
hours. No doubt this drying will eventually win out, but likely to
be somewhat delayed across the southeast half of the area. Clouds to
start the day, with an expected rather sharp delineation between
clouds/clear skies making headway southeast through this morning.
Expect all areas to become mostly sunny through early afternoon
(earlier as one goes north). May see some lingering drizzle for a
few hours this morning across those southeast areas. Far bigger
story will be temperatures, with backward run trajectory analysis
supporting guidance suggested temperatures only reaching into the
mid and upper 60s, with a few lucky locations in favored northwest
flow downslope regions perhaps just topping 70 degrees (and this is
despite what should be mostly sunny afternoon skies). These will be
a good 10 to 15 degrees below late June normals.

Above sets the stage for one rather chilly overnight, with abating
winds and clear skies only adding to the cooling cause. Not sure
winds will completely decouple, but all other ingredients are there
for temperatures to drop well into the 40s across interior areas.
Very possible some of our typical ice box locations in northern
lower may make a run at the upper 30s! Rather chilly indeed for
nearly being July.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

(6/29)Wednesday...High pressure continues over the region through
the daylight hours for the forecast area with a warm, dry day
expected. The next system that will affect us, is upstream with rain
expected in W Lake Superior by 00z. Models have been slowing the
approach of this system. Latest GFS and ECMWF have the rain barely
to E Upper by 12z, so have taken the pops down to slight chance, but
wouldn`t be surprised that nothing happens until much later on
Thursday morning.

(6/30)Thursday...GFS is still the faster of the models, the ECMWF
the slower, and the NAM is in between. expect that a combination of
the ECMWF/NAM solutions is probably right with the rain not
spreading across E Upper until closer to 18z As the front and the
pva from the 500 mb Shortwave trough pivots into the Upper Great
Lakes during the late morning/early afternoon. GFS and ECMWF are
closer in timing by 00z, with the GFS pushing the rain ashore into
NW Lower by 00z, and the ECMWF is just offshore a bit. Looking at
the instability, most of the convection looks to be decent, but with
the temperatures, most of the day, in the 60s/70s, CAPE will be
marginal, with the MU/SB CAPEs about 400 J/kg, but the ML CAPE only
27 J/kg. The ML CAPE typically a better indicator of severity of
thunderstorms around N MI, would think that slight chance of
thunder, with the rain showers would be more likely than just
thunderstorms. Will continue the thunder potential into the evening,
but as we get further into the evening the instability continues
downward, so that CAPE is around or less than 100 J/kg. So thinking
that thunder is very unlikely after 03z. Then just rain showers
overnight as the system continues to spread over N Lower.

Extended (Friday through Monday)...Friday is a clearing/drying day
as the last bits of the rain clears N Lower and E Upper in the
morning. This will usher in another couple of days (Friday/Saturday)
of below normal temperatures. We begin to warm again on Sunday
getting back to normal, and then above normal on Monday. There is a
chance for rain, as the models look to spin up a MCS in southern
Canada, which rides in on the NW 500 mb flow. GFS holds it together
and links it a bit with the system in the Ohio Valley. Considering
when there are systems south of the Upper Great Lakes, which cuts
off the moisture flow to the northern systems, think that the late
afternoon/early evening chances that the ECMWF are more likely,
especially as it seems fairly weak and slower at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Band of ifr/mvfr cigs continues to drop south across the taf sites
early this morning. Sharp clearing line making steady progress
south across eastern upper Michigan, and this is expected to cross
all taf locations later this morning and afternoon. Clear skies
are then expected to last through the remainder of this taf
period. Marginally gusty north to northwest winds
today...becoming light tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

SCA producing gusty north to northwest winds will continue
into this morning on much of northern Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.
Winds begin to subside later today, and especially tonight, as high
pressure builds overhead. Light winds expected to continue Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with local lake breeze development expected by
later Wednesday morning and afternoon.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281122
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
722 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Rather deep troughing (for the
season) continues to develop across the Great Lakes at this early
hour, courtesy of cyclonically curved upper jet streak diving
southeast and strong shortwave trough digging directly overhead.
Attendant surface trough tied to that robust mid level wave, working
over a rather moist lower level environment, is managing to kick off
a southward moving band of drizzle...just heavy enough in some
locations to wet the pavement. Combine this with cool temperatures
(H8 temperatures in the mid single digits!) and north/northwest
winds, and definitely almost an early fall-like look and feel to our
weather.

Troughing reaches maturity early today, with core of negative height
anomalies rotating off to the east later today and tonight. Robust
surface high will spread overhead for the next 24 hours, with deep
northerly flow through the column. This sets the stage for strong
drying and, more importantly, a shot of some rather cool late June
air to dominate our weather through tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud departure timing today.
Temperature trends through tonight (or more precisely, just how cold
to go with those temperatures tonight).

Details: Passing surface trough will drop south of our area rather
quicky this morning, with strong drying lagging by at least a few
hours. No doubt this drying will eventually win out, but likely to
be somewhat delayed across the southeast half of the area. Clouds to
start the day, with an expected rather sharp delineation between
clouds/clear skies making headway southeast through this morning.
Expect all areas to become mostly sunny through early afternoon
(earlier as one goes north). May see some lingering drizzle for a
few hours this morning across those southeast areas. Far bigger
story will be temperatures, with backward run trajectory analysis
supporting guidance suggested temperatures only reaching into the
mid and upper 60s, with a few lucky locations in favored northwest
flow downslope regions perhaps just topping 70 degrees (and this is
despite what should be mostly sunny afternoon skies). These will be
a good 10 to 15 degrees below late June normals.

Above sets the stage for one rather chilly overnight, with abating
winds and clear skies only adding to the cooling cause. Not sure
winds will completely decouple, but all other ingredients are there
for temperatures to drop well into the 40s across interior areas.
Very possible some of our typical ice box locations in northern
lower may make a run at the upper 30s! Rather chilly indeed for
nearly being July.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

(6/29)Wednesday...High pressure continues over the region through
the daylight hours for the forecast area with a warm, dry day
expected. The next system that will affect us, is upstream with rain
expected in W Lake Superior by 00z. Models have been slowing the
approach of this system. Latest GFS and ECMWF have the rain barely
to E Upper by 12z, so have taken the pops down to slight chance, but
wouldn`t be surprised that nothing happens until much later on
Thursday morning.

(6/30)Thursday...GFS is still the faster of the models, the ECMWF
the slower, and the NAM is in between. expect that a combination of
the ECMWF/NAM solutions is probably right with the rain not
spreading across E Upper until closer to 18z As the front and the
pva from the 500 mb Shortwave trough pivots into the Upper Great
Lakes during the late morning/early afternoon. GFS and ECMWF are
closer in timing by 00z, with the GFS pushing the rain ashore into
NW Lower by 00z, and the ECMWF is just offshore a bit. Looking at
the instability, most of the convection looks to be decent, but with
the temperatures, most of the day, in the 60s/70s, CAPE will be
marginal, with the MU/SB CAPEs about 400 J/kg, but the ML CAPE only
27 J/kg. The ML CAPE typically a better indicator of severity of
thunderstorms around N MI, would think that slight chance of
thunder, with the rain showers would be more likely than just
thunderstorms. Will continue the thunder potential into the evening,
but as we get further into the evening the instability continues
downward, so that CAPE is around or less than 100 J/kg. So thinking
that thunder is very unlikely after 03z. Then just rain showers
overnight as the system continues to spread over N Lower.

Extended (Friday through Monday)...Friday is a clearing/drying day
as the last bits of the rain clears N Lower and E Upper in the
morning. This will usher in another couple of days (Friday/Saturday)
of below normal temperatures. We begin to warm again on Sunday
getting back to normal, and then above normal on Monday. There is a
chance for rain, as the models look to spin up a MCS in southern
Canada, which rides in on the NW 500 mb flow. GFS holds it together
and links it a bit with the system in the Ohio Valley. Considering
when there are systems south of the Upper Great Lakes, which cuts
off the moisture flow to the northern systems, think that the late
afternoon/early evening chances that the ECMWF are more likely,
especially as it seems fairly weak and slower at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Band of ifr/mvfr cigs continues to drop south across the taf sites
early this morning. Sharp clearing line making steady progress
south across eastern upper Michigan, and this is expected to cross
all taf locations later this morning and afternoon. Clear skies
are then expected to last through the remainder of this taf
period. Marginally gusty north to northwest winds
today...becoming light tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

SCA producing gusty north to northwest winds will continue
into this morning on much of northern Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.
Winds begin to subside later today, and especially tonight, as high
pressure builds overhead. Light winds expected to continue Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with local lake breeze development expected by
later Wednesday morning and afternoon.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KDTX 281103
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
703 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...

A steady stream of cool air on light northwest wind will maintain
solid MVFR ceiling at MBS to FNT during the morning. There will be a
tendency for a low end VFR to be more persistent at DTW due to
downsloping off the ridge, although a few patches of MVFR stratocu
could make it in there as well. Daytime heating will then help lift
ceiling during the afternoon before high pressure provides a
clearing trend toward evening. Clear sky and light wind will then
continue into Wednesday morning.

For DTW... Borderline MVFR/VFR ceiling will be the prevailing sky
condition during the morning before lifting more firmly into
VFR<5000ft during the afternoon. Clearing sky by late afternoon will
be closely followed by a wind shift toward the NE as lake breeze
releases from Lake Huron/St Clair by early evening.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

DISCUSSION...

Upper shortwave will track across Lower Michigan today. Continued
cold air advection behind last night`s frontal passage will steepen
low-level lapse rates, especially after the sun rises and surface
heating commences. Influx of low-level moisture is still ongoing
behind the front early this morning per model data and satellite
imagery. The combination of forcing from the upper trough, moisture
sliding into place, and steepening lapse rates will provide a small
chance for showers early this morning and into the afternoon. Expect
activity to remain fairly isolated as moisture depth will be limited
and as mid-level inversion strengthens/lowers as surface high
pressure and shortwave ridging over the western Great Lakes begin to
shift east. Moisture axis will also shift east with the exiting
upper trough axis this evening, allowing skies to clear overnight.
Most noticeable difference in sensible weather today will be cooler
temperatures in the post-frontal airmass. H850 temperatures falling
into the single digits above zero (C) should provide a drop in
surface temperature on the magnitude of 15 to 20 degrees F. Forecast
highs range from low to mid 70s inland, to the mid 60s over the
northern thumb where cool north flow off Lake Huron will provide an
unseasonably chilly day.

High pressure will expand into the area overnight and hold into
Thursday providing dry and quiet weather. Only other chance for rain
in the forecast (aside from isolated light stuff today) comes
Thursday night into Friday as an upper trough swings across the
area. Cold front associated with this system looks fairly weak and
there does not look to be much instability, even considering the
mostly overnight timing of the frontal passage. There is a chance
activity may linger into Friday, flaring back up along the frontal
boundary as daytime heating commences. Given lack of instability and
preceding dry airmass that must be overcome, feel chance pops are
most appropriate. Otherwise, we will see temperatures recover back
to near 80 by Thursday, with slightly cooler temperatures behind the
front again on Friday.

MARINE...
Moderate northerly wind and cooler air will keep waves elevated
today, especially over Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron where
small craft advisories remain in effect. The upper level disturbance
driving the cooler air will also produce a few patches of light rain
mainly over the open waters of Lake Huron. High pressure will bring
improved wind and wave conditions tonight through Wednesday before
exiting eastward Thursday. Light south wind will then develop ahead
of the next cold front due in the area Thursday night into Friday.
This front will bring the next chance of rain and will be similar in
strength as today in terms of wind and cooler air.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening FOR MIZ049-055.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...NONE.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...HLO
MARINE.......BT


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281005
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
605 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A northerly flow of cooler air will prevail today here in Michigan
as low pressure pulls off to the east. There could even be some
light rain showers...mainly early in the day. Tonight the clouds
will thin out leading to a much cooler than normal night. High
pressure tracks from the Upper Plains to the Ohio Valley by
Thursday. This fair weather system will act to provide the area
with generally dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Another
cold front arrives for Thursday Night into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The main challenge deals with the potential for rain showers on
Thursday. For now...it looks like the trend is for a slower
arrival of the precipitation.

Models have trended slower with the arrival of the precipitation
for Thursday. Forecast soundings also suggest the risk for
thunderstorms will hold off until at least 00z Fri. The GFS does
develop some instability Thursday...but the low level dewpoint
lapse rate looks unreasonably...featuring too high values. In
addition...an inversion is shown just above 700 mb. Thus it looks
like if we do end up with some instability during the day...any
rising parcels will have to push through a layer of subsidence.
The forecast soundings for Thursday also have an overall dry look
to them. Thus...will feature a dry day for nearly the entire
forecast area on Thursday.

Will hold onto a small potential for light rain showers today for
most locations. The models are suggesting the area of light rain
showers over northeast Lower Michigan will pivot south and could
clip mainly the area east of a Big Rapids to Kalamazoo line.

Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail today and into
tonight. Perhaps some 30s up around Leota in Clare county are
possible given the cooler than normal airmass in place along with
a good radiational cooling night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A cold front will bring scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Thursday night into early Friday. Only weak
instability will develop along and just ahead of the front and
moisture is somewhat limited. Most locations will likely only
receive around a quarter of an inch or less of rainfall.

The overall dry weather pattern will continue through the vast
majority of the long range fcst period with dry conditions expected
Friday afternoon through Monday with high pressure in control of the
pattern over the Great Lakes region.

Temperatures will average slightly below normal behind the front
Friday before moderating through the weekend into early next week.
High temperatures should reach well into the 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 602 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Lower clouds...mainly mvfr will be around especially this morning.
Some sprinkles could occur. This afternoon...clearing conditions
are forecasted as a drier airmass filters in from the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Conditions to remain favorable for hazardous boating and swimming
conditions today. Winds and waves will slowly subside from north
to south later this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient
weakens.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Slight uptick in river levels near Scottville and Whitehall from
Sunday`s 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, and they are far from any
flood threat. The next best chance of rain will be late Thursday
into Friday. Amounts do not look substantial enough to even put a
dent in the recent dry weather.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 280907
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
507 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow
into Upper Michigan behind a trough that has moved southeast into
lower MI. At the surface, high pressure from the nrn plains into nrn
Ontario was building into the wrn Great Lakes. With the drier air
moving in, the IR loop showed clearing over most of the CWA.

Today, As the high continues to build into the area, skies will
remain mostly clear. Although the pres gradient will weaken, nrly
flow will still be strong enough to keep offshore flow going near
Lake Michigan. With 850 mb temps in the 7C to 9C range, expect highs
from the upper 60s east to lower 70s inland west, with cool onshore
flow keeping readings closer to 60 near Lake Superior. afternoon
mixing in the dry airmass will drop dewpoints to around 40.

Tonight, Although there may be some passing high clouds overnight,g
generally favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temps
to fall toward the lower end of guidance with lows around 40 inland
and the upper 40s closer to the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions over the next week, with rain and some storms likely
on Thursday.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Ridging will linger over the Great
Lakes region at the start of the period before weakening while
drifting SE through Wednesday night. Low-level moisture looks less
for Wednesday than previously thought per mixing of very dry air
this afternoon. Have thus removed mention of any showers through
Wednesday afternoon expect for far NW Lake Superior.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A sharp axis of deep
troughing over northern Ontario will swing across the CWA during
this time. Given the lack of any appreciable forcing ahead of this
trough in addition to the antecedent dry air mass, have slowed PoPs.
With the exception of the far west, precip should not reach the
ground until after midnight Wednesday/Thursday for the CWA.
Otherwise, have likely PoPs spreading west to east across the CWA
through Thursday evening. However, moisture availability still
remains a concern since better low-level moisture arrives only just
in time for the arrival of the trough across the central and east.
As for thunder chances, some embedded storms will be possible,
especially in the afternoon. Though deep layer shear will be
supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be too much
for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Monday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible far east early. Otherwise, a pleasant holiday weekend is in
store, at least through Sunday. It should be noted that guidance is
beginning to latch onto the idea of a compact trough riding along
the northern edge of a central Plains ridge on the 4th, bringing
some convective activity into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes. Still a ways out, but worth keeping an eye on over the
coming week given potential impacts for holiday activities.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

As drier air associated with expanding hi pres in Ontario moves into
the Upper Lks tngt, expect VFR conditions with clearing. Moclr skies
wl be then rule thru this evng with the dry hi pres then moving over
the area. There wl be some gusty N winds at SAW accentuated by
daytime heating/mixing and flow off Lk Sup, but these winds wl
diminish by sunset.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Expect light winds less than 15 kts today into Thu as high pressure
settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front crossing later
Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into Fri, strongest
over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than 15 kts late Fri
into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 280907
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
507 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow
into Upper Michigan behind a trough that has moved southeast into
lower MI. At the surface, high pressure from the nrn plains into nrn
Ontario was building into the wrn Great Lakes. With the drier air
moving in, the IR loop showed clearing over most of the CWA.

Today, As the high continues to build into the area, skies will
remain mostly clear. Although the pres gradient will weaken, nrly
flow will still be strong enough to keep offshore flow going near
Lake Michigan. With 850 mb temps in the 7C to 9C range, expect highs
from the upper 60s east to lower 70s inland west, with cool onshore
flow keeping readings closer to 60 near Lake Superior. afternoon
mixing in the dry airmass will drop dewpoints to around 40.

Tonight, Although there may be some passing high clouds overnight,g
generally favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temps
to fall toward the lower end of guidance with lows around 40 inland
and the upper 40s closer to the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions over the next week, with rain and some storms likely
on Thursday.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Ridging will linger over the Great
Lakes region at the start of the period before weakening while
drifting SE through Wednesday night. Low-level moisture looks less
for Wednesday than previously thought per mixing of very dry air
this afternoon. Have thus removed mention of any showers through
Wednesday afternoon expect for far NW Lake Superior.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A sharp axis of deep
troughing over northern Ontario will swing across the CWA during
this time. Given the lack of any appreciable forcing ahead of this
trough in addition to the antecedent dry air mass, have slowed PoPs.
With the exception of the far west, precip should not reach the
ground until after midnight Wednesday/Thursday for the CWA.
Otherwise, have likely PoPs spreading west to east across the CWA
through Thursday evening. However, moisture availability still
remains a concern since better low-level moisture arrives only just
in time for the arrival of the trough across the central and east.
As for thunder chances, some embedded storms will be possible,
especially in the afternoon. Though deep layer shear will be
supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be too much
for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Monday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible far east early. Otherwise, a pleasant holiday weekend is in
store, at least through Sunday. It should be noted that guidance is
beginning to latch onto the idea of a compact trough riding along
the northern edge of a central Plains ridge on the 4th, bringing
some convective activity into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes. Still a ways out, but worth keeping an eye on over the
coming week given potential impacts for holiday activities.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

As drier air associated with expanding hi pres in Ontario moves into
the Upper Lks tngt, expect VFR conditions with clearing. Moclr skies
wl be then rule thru this evng with the dry hi pres then moving over
the area. There wl be some gusty N winds at SAW accentuated by
daytime heating/mixing and flow off Lk Sup, but these winds wl
diminish by sunset.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Expect light winds less than 15 kts today into Thu as high pressure
settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front crossing later
Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into Fri, strongest
over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than 15 kts late Fri
into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KDTX 280735
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
335 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Upper shortwave will track across Lower Michigan today. Continued
cold air advection behind last night`s frontal passage will steepen
low-level lapse rates, especially after the sun rises and surface
heating commences. Influx of low-level moisture is still ongoing
behind the front early this morning per model data and satellite
imagery. The combination of forcing from the upper trough, moisture
sliding into place, and steepening lapse rates will provide a small
chance for showers early this morning and into the afternoon. Expect
activity to remain fairly isolated as moisture depth will be limited
and as mid-level inversion strengthens/lowers as surface high
pressure and shortwave ridging over the western Great Lakes begin to
shift east. Moisture axis will also shift east with the exiting
upper trough axis this evening, allowing skies to clear overnight.
Most noticeable difference in sensible weather today will be cooler
temperatures in the post-frontal airmass. H850 temperatures falling
into the single digits above zero (C) should provide a drop in
surface temperature on the magnitude of 15 to 20 degrees F. Forecast
highs range from low to mid 70s inland, to the mid 60s over the
northern thumb where cool north flow off Lake Huron will provide an
unseasonably chilly day.

High pressure will expand into the area overnight and hold into
Thursday providing dry and quiet weather. Only other chance for rain
in the forecast (aside from isolated light stuff today) comes
Thursday night into Friday as an upper trough swings across the
area. Cold front associated with this system looks fairly weak and
there does not look to be much instability, even considering the
mostly overnight timing of the frontal passage. There is a chance
activity may linger into Friday, flaring back up along the frontal
boundary as daytime heating commences. Given lack of instability and
preceding dry airmass that must be overcome, feel chance pops are
most appropriate. Otherwise, we will see temperatures recover back
to near 80 by Thursday, with slightly cooler temperatures behind the
front again on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northerly wind and cooler air will keep waves elevated
today, especially over Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron where
small craft advisories remain in effect. The upper level disturbance
driving the cooler air will also produce a few patches of light rain
mainly over the open waters of Lake Huron. High pressure will bring
improved wind and wave conditions tonight through Wednesday before
exiting eastward Thursday. Light south wind will then develop ahead
of the next cold front due in the area Thursday night into Friday.
This front will bring the next chance of rain and will be similar in
strength as today in terms of wind and cooler air.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

AVIATION...

Effective cold frontal boundary has already pushed southwestward off
Lake Huron and crossed terminals with SCT-BKN lower VFR cigs on the
order of 4000-6000 feet. Synoptic scale front, with additional BKN
to OVC stratus in the MVFR to lower VFR range, will drop south from
northern lower Michigan and bring an expanding area of cigs between
2500-4500 feet during the night with the lowest cigs affecting
KMBS/KFNT. These conditions will persist into the daytime, but
drier air will work in during the afternoon/early evening and lead
to lifting cigs and eventually FEW-SCT skies.

For DTW...Lower VFR cigs will gradually build southward into the
terminal during the night and remain in place through the morning.
A gradual lifting/clearing of the clouds will then take place late
in the day and especially Tuesday night. NW winds may gust to near
20 knots during best mixing of day, with winds veering to NNE as
another boundary drops south trough area.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Medium for ceilings AOB 5000 feet overnight through morning.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening FOR MIZ049-055.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HLO
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KMQT 280734 CCA
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Marquette MI
334 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Latest stlt imagery indicates lo clds still extend into nrn Lk Sup
at 03Z. Although some drier near sfc air has reached Upr MI, slowed
down the clrg trend to account for the more persistent clds. Also
raised fcst min temps a couple of degrees over the interior W to
account for a shorter period of moclr skies before sunrise in that
area. &&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Deep trough aloft is sliding over northern Quebec while secondary
trough containing the h925-h85 thermal trough (h85 temps down to +4c)
slides across northern MN and Lk Superior. Sfc cold front bringing
push of cold air has swept across Upr Michigana and recently arrived
over northern Lk Michigan. Temps along Lk Superior shore have fallen
into the 50s. Temps along Lk Michigan have fallen to around 60
degrees after reaching the low 70s earlier. Have seen plenty of
clouds and scattered showers, mainly over the west and central.
Rainfall amounts even in the heavier showers likely have been less
than 0.10 inch. Clearning is not that far upstream. Weak
shortwave/q-vector convergence affects central and east cwa late this
aftn than another wave drops through over mainly east cwa later this
evening and overnight. Kept isold mention for showers going over the
east but with drying and q-vector divergence have it becoming dry
over the west and central by early evening. With higher waves the
beach hazard statement will continue for Marquette and Alger counties
this evening. As skies clear and winds become light over the west may
see temps fall to the upr 30s/low 40s as occurred this morning under
the edge of the High in Manitoba and northern Ontario. Farther to the
east, gradient north winds should keep temps up in the mid 40s to low
50s.

Any lingering clouds will sweep out of the eastern cwa on Tue morning
as the high builds overhead. Winds will be from the N-NW, strongest
east half. Even there though winds will diminish into the afternoon
as the high settles overhead. Winds across the west will start off light
and variable with lake breeze developing. With persistent onshore
flow, temps will remain cool near Lk Superior to the east of
Marquette but will bounce back to the upper 60s/around 70 elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions over the next week, with rain and some storms likely
on Thursday.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Ridging will linger over the Great
Lakes region at the start of the period before weakening while
drifting SE through Wednesday night. Low-level moisture looks less
for Wednesday than previously thought per mixing of very dry air
this afternoon. Have thus removed mention of any showers through
Wednesday afternoon expect for far NW Lake Superior.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A sharp axis of deep
troughing over northern Ontario will swing across the CWA during
this time. Given the lack of any appreciable forcing ahead of this
trough in addition to the antecedent dry air mass, have slowed PoPs.
With the exception of the far west, precip should not reach the
ground until after midnight Wednesday/Thursday for the CWA.
Otherwise, have likely PoPs spreading west to east across the CWA
through Thursday evening. However, moisture availability still
remains a concern since better low-level moisture arrives only just
in time for the arrival of the trough across the central and east.
As for thunder chances, some embedded storms will be possible,
especially in the afternoon. Though deep layer shear will be
supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be too much
for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Monday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible far east early. Otherwise, a pleasant holiday weekend is in
store, at least through Sunday. It should be noted that guidance is
beginning to latch onto the idea of a compact trough riding along
the northern edge of a central Plains ridge on the 4th, bringing
some convective activity into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes. Still a ways out, but worth keeping an eye on over the
coming week given potential impacts for holiday activities. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

As drier air associated with expanding hi pres in Ontario moves into
the Upper Lks tngt, expect VFR conditions with clearing. Moclr skies
wl be then rule thru this evng with the dry hi pres then moving over
the area. There wl be some gusty N winds at SAW accentuated by
daytime heating/mixing and flow off Lk Sup, but these winds wl
diminish by sunset.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

NW winds to 20 kts behind a cold front will diminish from west to
east this evening. Expect light winds less than 15 kts Tue into Thu
as high pressure settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front
crossing later Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into
Fri, strongest over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than
15 kts late Fri into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 280734 CCA
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Marquette MI
334 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Latest stlt imagery indicates lo clds still extend into nrn Lk Sup
at 03Z. Although some drier near sfc air has reached Upr MI, slowed
down the clrg trend to account for the more persistent clds. Also
raised fcst min temps a couple of degrees over the interior W to
account for a shorter period of moclr skies before sunrise in that
area. &&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Deep trough aloft is sliding over northern Quebec while secondary
trough containing the h925-h85 thermal trough (h85 temps down to +4c)
slides across northern MN and Lk Superior. Sfc cold front bringing
push of cold air has swept across Upr Michigana and recently arrived
over northern Lk Michigan. Temps along Lk Superior shore have fallen
into the 50s. Temps along Lk Michigan have fallen to around 60
degrees after reaching the low 70s earlier. Have seen plenty of
clouds and scattered showers, mainly over the west and central.
Rainfall amounts even in the heavier showers likely have been less
than 0.10 inch. Clearning is not that far upstream. Weak
shortwave/q-vector convergence affects central and east cwa late this
aftn than another wave drops through over mainly east cwa later this
evening and overnight. Kept isold mention for showers going over the
east but with drying and q-vector divergence have it becoming dry
over the west and central by early evening. With higher waves the
beach hazard statement will continue for Marquette and Alger counties
this evening. As skies clear and winds become light over the west may
see temps fall to the upr 30s/low 40s as occurred this morning under
the edge of the High in Manitoba and northern Ontario. Farther to the
east, gradient north winds should keep temps up in the mid 40s to low
50s.

Any lingering clouds will sweep out of the eastern cwa on Tue morning
as the high builds overhead. Winds will be from the N-NW, strongest
east half. Even there though winds will diminish into the afternoon
as the high settles overhead. Winds across the west will start off light
and variable with lake breeze developing. With persistent onshore
flow, temps will remain cool near Lk Superior to the east of
Marquette but will bounce back to the upper 60s/around 70 elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions over the next week, with rain and some storms likely
on Thursday.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Ridging will linger over the Great
Lakes region at the start of the period before weakening while
drifting SE through Wednesday night. Low-level moisture looks less
for Wednesday than previously thought per mixing of very dry air
this afternoon. Have thus removed mention of any showers through
Wednesday afternoon expect for far NW Lake Superior.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A sharp axis of deep
troughing over northern Ontario will swing across the CWA during
this time. Given the lack of any appreciable forcing ahead of this
trough in addition to the antecedent dry air mass, have slowed PoPs.
With the exception of the far west, precip should not reach the
ground until after midnight Wednesday/Thursday for the CWA.
Otherwise, have likely PoPs spreading west to east across the CWA
through Thursday evening. However, moisture availability still
remains a concern since better low-level moisture arrives only just
in time for the arrival of the trough across the central and east.
As for thunder chances, some embedded storms will be possible,
especially in the afternoon. Though deep layer shear will be
supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be too much
for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Monday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible far east early. Otherwise, a pleasant holiday weekend is in
store, at least through Sunday. It should be noted that guidance is
beginning to latch onto the idea of a compact trough riding along
the northern edge of a central Plains ridge on the 4th, bringing
some convective activity into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes. Still a ways out, but worth keeping an eye on over the
coming week given potential impacts for holiday activities. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

As drier air associated with expanding hi pres in Ontario moves into
the Upper Lks tngt, expect VFR conditions with clearing. Moclr skies
wl be then rule thru this evng with the dry hi pres then moving over
the area. There wl be some gusty N winds at SAW accentuated by
daytime heating/mixing and flow off Lk Sup, but these winds wl
diminish by sunset.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

NW winds to 20 kts behind a cold front will diminish from west to
east this evening. Expect light winds less than 15 kts Tue into Thu
as high pressure settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front
crossing later Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into
Fri, strongest over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than
15 kts late Fri into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 280732
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
332 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Latest stlt imagery indicates lo clds still extend into nrn Lk Sup
at 03Z. Although some drier near sfc air has reached Upr MI, slowed
down the clrg trend to account for the more persistent clds. Also
raised fcst min temps a couple of degrees over the interior W to
account for a shorter period of moclr skies before sunrise in that
area.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Deep trough aloft is sliding over northern Quebec while secondary
trough containing the h925-h85 thermal trough (h85 temps down to +4c)
slides across northern MN and Lk Superior. Sfc cold front bringing
push of cold air has swept across Upr Michigana and recently arrived
over northern Lk Michigan. Temps along Lk Superior shore have fallen
into the 50s. Temps along Lk Michigan have fallen to around 60
degrees after reaching the low 70s earlier. Have seen plenty of
clouds and scattered showers, mainly over the west and central.
Rainfall amounts even in the heavier showers likely have been less
than 0.10 inch. Clearning is not that far upstream. Weak
shortwave/q-vector convergence affects central and east cwa late this
aftn than another wave drops through over mainly east cwa later this
evening and overnight. Kept isold mention for showers going over the
east but with drying and q-vector divergence have it becoming dry
over the west and central by early evening. With higher waves the
beach hazard statement will continue for Marquette and Alger counties
this evening. As skies clear and winds become light over the west may
see temps fall to the upr 30s/low 40s as occurred this morning under
the edge of the High in Manitoba and northern Ontario. Farther to the
east, gradient north winds should keep temps up in the mid 40s to low
50s.

Any lingering clouds will sweep out of the eastern cwa on Tue morning
as the high builds overhead. Winds will be from the N-NW, strongest
east half. Even there though winds will diminish into the afternoon
as the high settles overhead. Winds across the west will start off light
and variable with lake breeze developing. With persistent onshore
flow, temps will remain cool near Lk Superior to the east of
Marquette but will bounce back to the upper 60s/around 70 elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions over the next week, with rain and some
storms likely on Thursday.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Ridging will linger over the Great
Lakes region at the start of the period before weakening while
drifting SE through Wednesday night. Low-level moisture looks less
for Wednesday than previously thought per mixing of very dry air
this afternoon. Have thus removed mention of any showers through
Wednesday afternoon expect for far NW Lake Superior.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A sharp axis of deep
troughing over northern Ontario will swing across the CWA during
this time. Given the lack of any appreciable forcing ahead of this
trough in addition to the antecedent dry air mass, have slowed PoPs.
With the exception of the far west, precip should not reach the
ground until after midnight Wednesday/Thursday for the CWA.
Otherwise, have likely PoPs spreading west to east across the CWA
through Thursday evening. However, moisture availability still
remains a concern since better low-level moisture arrives only just
in time for the arrival of the trough across the central and east.
As for thunder chances, some embedded storms will be possible,
especially in the afternoon. Though deep layer shear will be
supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be too much
for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Monday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible far east early. Otherwise, a pleasant holiday weekend is in
store, at least through Sunday. It should be noted that guidance is
beginning to latch onto the idea of a compact trough riding along
the northern edge of a central Plains ridge on the 
, bringing some convective activity into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. Still a ways out, but worth keeping an eye on over the coming week given potential impacts for holiday activities. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 122 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 As drier air associated with expanding hi pres in Ontario moves into the Upper Lks tngt, expect VFR conditions with clearing. Moclr skies wl be then rule thru this evng with the dry hi pres then moving over the area. There wl be some gusty N winds at SAW accentuated by daytime heating/mixing and flow off Lk Sup, but these winds wl diminish by sunset. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 NW winds to 20 kts behind a cold front will diminish from west to east this evening. Expect light winds less than 15 kts Tue into Thu as high pressure settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front crossing later Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into Fri, strongest over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than 15 kts late Fri into Sat as high pressure moves across. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE...KC SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...Kluber AVIATION...KC MARINE...JLA

000
FXUS63 KAPX 280729
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
329 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Rather deep troughing (for the
season) continues to develop across the Great Lakes at this early
hour, courtesy of cyclonically curved upper jet streak diving
southeast and strong shortwave trough digging directly overhead.
Attendant surface trough tied to that robust mid level wave, working
over a rather moist lower level environment, is managing to kick off
a southward moving band of drizzle...just heavy enough in some
locations to wet the pavement. Combine this with cool temperatures
(H8 temperatures in the mid single digits!) and north/northwest
winds, and definitely almost an early fall-like look and feel to our
weather.

Troughing reaches maturity early today, with core of negative height
anomalies rotating off to the east later today and tonight. Robust
surface high will spread overhead for the next 24 hours, with deep
northerly flow through the column. This sets the stage for strong
drying and, more importantly, a shot of some rather cool late June
air to dominate our weather through tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud departure timing today.
Temperature trends through tonight (or more precisely, just how cold
to go with those temperatures tonight).

Details: Passing surface trough will drop south of our area rather
quicky this morning, with strong drying lagging by at least a few
hours. No doubt this drying will eventually win out, but likely to
be somewhat delayed across the southeast half of the area. Clouds to
start the day, with an expected rather sharp delineation between
clouds/clear skies making headway southeast through this morning.
Expect all areas to become mostly sunny through early afternoon
(earlier as one goes north). May see some lingering drizzle for a
few hours this morning across those southeast areas. Far bigger
story will be temperatures, with backward run trajectory analysis
supporting guidance suggested temperatures only reaching into the
mid and upper 60s, with a few lucky locations in favored northwest
flow downslope regions perhaps just topping 70 degrees (and this is
despite what should be mostly sunny afternoon skies). These will be
a good 10 to 15 degrees below late June normals.

Above sets the stage for one rather chilly overnight, with abating
winds and clear skies only adding to the cooling cause. Not sure
winds will completely decouple, but all other ingredients are there
for temperatures to drop well into the 40s across interior areas.
Very possible some of our typical ice box locations in northern
lower may make a run at the upper 30s! Rather chilly indeed for
nearly being July.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

(6/29)Wednesday...High pressure continues over the region through
the daylight hours for the forecast area with a warm, dry day
expected. The next system that will affect us, is upstream with rain
expected in W Lake Superior by 00z. Models have been slowing the
approach of this system. Latest GFS and ECMWF have the rain barely
to E Upper by 12z, so have taken the pops down to slight chance, but
wouldn`t be surprised that nothing happens until much later on
Thursday morning.

(6/30)Thursday...GFS is still the faster of the models, the ECMWF
the slower, and the NAM is in between. expect that a combination of
the ECMWF/NAM solutions is probably right with the rain not
spreading across E Upper until closer to 18z As the front and the
pva from the 500 mb Shortwave trough pivots into the Upper Great
Lakes during the late morning/early afternoon. GFS and ECMWF are
closer in timing by 00z, with the GFS pushing the rain ashore into
NW Lower by 00z, and the ECMWF is just offshore a bit. Looking at
the instability, most of the convection looks to be decent, but with
the temperatures, most of the day, in the 60s/70s, CAPE will be
marginal, with the MU/SB CAPEs about 400 J/kg, but the ML CAPE only
27 J/kg. The ML CAPE typically a better indicator of severity of
thunderstorms around N MI, would think that slight chance of
thunder, with the rain showers would be more likely than just
thunderstorms. Will continue the thunder potential into the evening,
but as we get further into the evening the instability continues
downward, so that CAPE is around or less than 100 J/kg. So thinking
that thunder is very unlikely after 03z. Then just rain showers
overnight as the system continues to spread over N Lower.

Extended (Friday through Monday)...Friday is a clearing/drying day
as the last bits of the rain clears N Lower and E Upper in the
morning. This will usher in another couple of days (Friday/Saturday)
of below normal temperatures. We begin to warm again on Sunday
getting back to normal, and then above normal on Monday. There is a
chance for rain, as the models look to spin up a MCS in southern
Canada, which rides in on the NW 500 mb flow. GFS holds it together
and links it a bit with the system in the Ohio Valley. Considering
when there are systems south of the Upper Great Lakes, which cuts
off the moisture flow to the northern systems, think that the late
afternoon/early evening chances that the ECMWF are more likely,
especially as it seems fairly weak and slower at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Band of mvfr producing stratus (even some drizzle) will continue
to slowly sag south through early this morning. Aggressive
clearing will spread in from north to south behind this, likely
overspreading all taf locations by later this morning and early
afternoon. Clear skies with no vis restrictions will continue
through Tonight. Marginally gusty northwest to north winds today,
with winds quickly subsiding this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

SCA producing gusty north to northwest winds will continue
into this morning on much of northern Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.
Winds begin to subside later today, and especially tonight, as high
pressure builds overhead. Light winds expected to continue Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with local lake breeze development expected by
later Wednesday morning and afternoon.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 280719
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
319 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A northerly flow of cooler air will prevail today here in Michigan
as low pressure pulls off to the east. There could even be some
light rain showers...mainly early in the day. Tonight the clouds
will thin out leading to a much cooler than normal night. High
pressure tracks from the Upper Plains to the Ohio Valley by
Thursday. This fair weather system will act to provide the area
with generally dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Another
cold front arrives for Thursday Night into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The main challenge deals with the potential for rain showers on
Thursday. For now...it looks like the trend is for a slower
arrival of the precipitation.

Models have trended slower with the arrival of the precipitation
for Thursday. Forecast soundings also suggest the risk for
thunderstorms will hold off until at least 00z Fri. The GFS does
develop some instability Thursday...but the low level dewpoint
lapse rate looks unreasonably...featuring too high values. In
addition...an inversion is shown just above 700 mb. Thus it looks
like if we do end up with some instability during the day...any
rising parcels will have to push through a layer of subsidence.
The forecast soundings for Thursday also have an overall dry look
to them. Thus...will feature a dry day for nearly the entire
forecast area on Thursday.

Will hold onto a small potential for light rain showers today for
most locations. The models are suggesting the area of light rain
showers over northeast Lower Michigan will pivot south and could
clip mainly the area east of a Big Rapids to Kalamazoo line.

Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail today and into
tonight. Perhaps some 30s up around Leota in Clare county are
possible given the cooler than normal airmass in place along with
a good radiational cooling night.



.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A cold front will bring scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Thursday night into early Friday. Only weak
instability will develop along and just ahead of the front and
moisture is somewhat limited. Most locations will likely only
receive around a quarter of an inch or less of rainfall.

The overall dry weather pattern will continue through the vast
majority of the long range fcst period with dry conditions expected
Friday afternoon through Monday with high pressure in control of the
pattern over the Great Lakes region.

Temperatures will average slightly below normal behind the front
Friday before moderating through the weekend into early next week.
High temperatures should reach well into the 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1224 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Vfr conditions will continue overnight at all the terminals. A
brief period of mvfr conditions is possible during the mid to
late morning hours today due to low clouds. A few light rain
showers or sprinkles are also possible this morning. The
relatively best chance for a brief period of mvfr conditions will
be at KGRR and KLAN from around 12z-16z today.

Vfr conditions are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening. Nnw winds will increase to around 10-15 kts Tuesday
afternoon and early evening before subsiding. Sct-bkn fair wx
cumulus clouds will develop Tuesday afternoon before skies clear
Tuesday evening as high pressure builds in.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Conditions to remain favorable for hazardous boating and swimming
conditions today. Winds and waves will slowly subside from north
to south later this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient
weakens.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Slight uptick in river levels near Scottville and Whitehall from
Sunday`s 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, and they are far from any
flood threat. The next best chance of rain will be late Thursday
into Friday. Amounts do not look substantial enough to even put a
dent in the recent dry weather.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through late
     tonight for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 280719
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
319 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A northerly flow of cooler air will prevail today here in Michigan
as low pressure pulls off to the east. There could even be some
light rain showers...mainly early in the day. Tonight the clouds
will thin out leading to a much cooler than normal night. High
pressure tracks from the Upper Plains to the Ohio Valley by
Thursday. This fair weather system will act to provide the area
with generally dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Another
cold front arrives for Thursday Night into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The main challenge deals with the potential for rain showers on
Thursday. For now...it looks like the trend is for a slower
arrival of the precipitation.

Models have trended slower with the arrival of the precipitation
for Thursday. Forecast soundings also suggest the risk for
thunderstorms will hold off until at least 00z Fri. The GFS does
develop some instability Thursday...but the low level dewpoint
lapse rate looks unreasonably...featuring too high values. In
addition...an inversion is shown just above 700 mb. Thus it looks
like if we do end up with some instability during the day...any
rising parcels will have to push through a layer of subsidence.
The forecast soundings for Thursday also have an overall dry look
to them. Thus...will feature a dry day for nearly the entire
forecast area on Thursday.

Will hold onto a small potential for light rain showers today for
most locations. The models are suggesting the area of light rain
showers over northeast Lower Michigan will pivot south and could
clip mainly the area east of a Big Rapids to Kalamazoo line.

Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail today and into
tonight. Perhaps some 30s up around Leota in Clare county are
possible given the cooler than normal airmass in place along with
a good radiational cooling night.



.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A cold front will bring scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Thursday night into early Friday. Only weak
instability will develop along and just ahead of the front and
moisture is somewhat limited. Most locations will likely only
receive around a quarter of an inch or less of rainfall.

The overall dry weather pattern will continue through the vast
majority of the long range fcst period with dry conditions expected
Friday afternoon through Monday with high pressure in control of the
pattern over the Great Lakes region.

Temperatures will average slightly below normal behind the front
Friday before moderating through the weekend into early next week.
High temperatures should reach well into the 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1224 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Vfr conditions will continue overnight at all the terminals. A
brief period of mvfr conditions is possible during the mid to
late morning hours today due to low clouds. A few light rain
showers or sprinkles are also possible this morning. The
relatively best chance for a brief period of mvfr conditions will
be at KGRR and KLAN from around 12z-16z today.

Vfr conditions are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening. Nnw winds will increase to around 10-15 kts Tuesday
afternoon and early evening before subsiding. Sct-bkn fair wx
cumulus clouds will develop Tuesday afternoon before skies clear
Tuesday evening as high pressure builds in.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Conditions to remain favorable for hazardous boating and swimming
conditions today. Winds and waves will slowly subside from north
to south later this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient
weakens.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Slight uptick in river levels near Scottville and Whitehall from
Sunday`s 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, and they are far from any
flood threat. The next best chance of rain will be late Thursday
into Friday. Amounts do not look substantial enough to even put a
dent in the recent dry weather.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through late
     tonight for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280601
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
201 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Low clouds and widely scattered light showers continue to spread
into our CWA late this evening in the wake of the secondary cold
front and along/ahead of the approaching upper level trough. Temps
continue to fall this evening as an unseasonably cool airmass
filters into the region in the wake of the cold front. Little will
change as we head into the overnight hours. Mainly cloudy skies
and scattered showers will continue to impact our CWA with ongoing
CAA. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Stacked but filling low pressure system is now moving into western
Ontario but with thermal troughing and wrap around moisture/clouds
sagging down through northern Michigan. Along with daytime heating,
cloud cover has filled in across all of northern Michigan as
anticipated along with some very spotty showers/sprinkles trying
to get going. Meanwhile, compact short wave is pushing through
the Straits/northern Lake Huron area this afternoon within the
broad upper trough. A more pronounced short wave withing the
upper trough axis itself is evident over Minnesota heading into
northern Wisconsin.

Tonight: Upper trough axis/band of lower ceilings north of Lake
Superior will rotate down through northern Michigan later this
evening and into the overnight hours. This may bring isolated to
scattered very light showers/sprinkles to the region although
deeper moisture is lacking and forecast soundings look more
supportive of drizzle than anything (some drizzle has been
reported in southern Ontario this afternoon). Nonetheless, will
keep our low chance pops intact at this juncture. Otherwise,
cooler air continues to spread into the region with lows tonight
dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Guidance is in good agreement with current upper level wave
departing east of the CWA during the early morning hours, leaving
behind only a few lingering showers for the first few hours of the
period of Tuesday morning for the southern part of the forecast area
of northern lower Michigan. There will be some lingering clouds as
well, decreasing coverage throughout Tuesday and becoming mostly
clear by the evening hours as high pressure builds over the Great
Lakes region. Tuesday`s daytime highs will struggle to reach 70
degrees with cool northwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies through
the afternoon. Light winds and clearing skies will maximize
radiational cooling, dipping temperatures down to the low to mid 40s
Wednesday morning (maybe even see some upper 30s over the normal
"cooler" spots of interior portions of northern Michigan??). This
will be about 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year.
Wednesday will have mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures
under said high pressure with temperatures reaching into the low to
mid 70s over much of the forecast area with the exception being
portions of northeast lower, who may have a bit of a downsloping
component, possibly warming into the upper 70s.
Clouds will begin to increase Thursday ahead of a surface low
pressure system that`s forecast to develop over the northern Great
Lakes region. It`s a little too early to pin point exact timing and
intensity as of right now, but it looks like there are some good
parameters for thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon with
aforementioned low pressure system and good upper level support.
Chances will increase the longer the thicker clouds hold off during
afternoon heating. Both the GFS and NAM have near 3000 J/Kg of
MUCAPE, but believe they are overdoing the dewpoints of 66F. Believe
dewpoints will be in the upper 50s, which would be closer to the
1500-2000 J/Kg range. 850MB temperatures in the low 50s allow for
some pretty steep lower-level lapse rates, above 8C. Definitely
warrants something to keep an eye on and mentioned in the HWO.
Temperatures Thursday will warm even a bit more from Wednesday, with
lows dipping only into the upper 40s to mid 50s and highs reaching
into the low to mid 70s over eastern upper and in the upper 70s to
low 80s over northern lower.

TJL

Sharpening upper trof will progress thru the northern Great Lakes
Thu night. Showers remain likely for most of the area, and have
added thunder to Thu evening. Precip threat largely ends by Fri
morning, with just a slight chance of a lingering shower or two.

This system will close off as it gradually moves a for most.cross
Quebec thru the weekend. That leaves us in an extended period of nw
flow aloft. Gfs/Ecmwf both have minimal shortwave activity embedded
within that flow, and are thus inclined to keep us dry. Historically
speaking, a lengthy period of featureless nw flow aloft is unlikely;
at some point, a shortwave (perhaps strong enough to kick off some
showers) will reveal itself. However, timing such a feature is not
possible at this time. So will roll with a dry holiday weekend
forecast for now.

Temps will be cool on Friday in the wake of the departing system,
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. After that, slow moderation
is expected thru the 4th.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Band of mvfr producing stratus (even some drizzle) will continue
to slowly sag south through early this morning. Aggressive
clearing will spread in from north to south behind this, likely
overspreading all taf locations by later this morning and early
afternoon. Clear skies with no vis restrictions will continue
through Tonight. Marginally gusty northwest to north winds today,
with winds quickly subsiding this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Gustier NW winds continue into this evening before turning a bit
more northerly later tonight through Tuesday, bringing marginal
small craft advisory conditions. Winds/waves will diminish for later
Tuesday through Wednesday. Weather-wise, some very spotty
showers/sprinkles are possible through tonight. But improving
weather is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...TJL/JZ
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...Adam




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280601
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
201 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Low clouds and widely scattered light showers continue to spread
into our CWA late this evening in the wake of the secondary cold
front and along/ahead of the approaching upper level trough. Temps
continue to fall this evening as an unseasonably cool airmass
filters into the region in the wake of the cold front. Little will
change as we head into the overnight hours. Mainly cloudy skies
and scattered showers will continue to impact our CWA with ongoing
CAA. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Stacked but filling low pressure system is now moving into western
Ontario but with thermal troughing and wrap around moisture/clouds
sagging down through northern Michigan. Along with daytime heating,
cloud cover has filled in across all of northern Michigan as
anticipated along with some very spotty showers/sprinkles trying
to get going. Meanwhile, compact short wave is pushing through
the Straits/northern Lake Huron area this afternoon within the
broad upper trough. A more pronounced short wave withing the
upper trough axis itself is evident over Minnesota heading into
northern Wisconsin.

Tonight: Upper trough axis/band of lower ceilings north of Lake
Superior will rotate down through northern Michigan later this
evening and into the overnight hours. This may bring isolated to
scattered very light showers/sprinkles to the region although
deeper moisture is lacking and forecast soundings look more
supportive of drizzle than anything (some drizzle has been
reported in southern Ontario this afternoon). Nonetheless, will
keep our low chance pops intact at this juncture. Otherwise,
cooler air continues to spread into the region with lows tonight
dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Guidance is in good agreement with current upper level wave
departing east of the CWA during the early morning hours, leaving
behind only a few lingering showers for the first few hours of the
period of Tuesday morning for the southern part of the forecast area
of northern lower Michigan. There will be some lingering clouds as
well, decreasing coverage throughout Tuesday and becoming mostly
clear by the evening hours as high pressure builds over the Great
Lakes region. Tuesday`s daytime highs will struggle to reach 70
degrees with cool northwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies through
the afternoon. Light winds and clearing skies will maximize
radiational cooling, dipping temperatures down to the low to mid 40s
Wednesday morning (maybe even see some upper 30s over the normal
"cooler" spots of interior portions of northern Michigan??). This
will be about 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year.
Wednesday will have mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures
under said high pressure with temperatures reaching into the low to
mid 70s over much of the forecast area with the exception being
portions of northeast lower, who may have a bit of a downsloping
component, possibly warming into the upper 70s.
Clouds will begin to increase Thursday ahead of a surface low
pressure system that`s forecast to develop over the northern Great
Lakes region. It`s a little too early to pin point exact timing and
intensity as of right now, but it looks like there are some good
parameters for thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon with
aforementioned low pressure system and good upper level support.
Chances will increase the longer the thicker clouds hold off during
afternoon heating. Both the GFS and NAM have near 3000 J/Kg of
MUCAPE, but believe they are overdoing the dewpoints of 66F. Believe
dewpoints will be in the upper 50s, which would be closer to the
1500-2000 J/Kg range. 850MB temperatures in the low 50s allow for
some pretty steep lower-level lapse rates, above 8C. Definitely
warrants something to keep an eye on and mentioned in the HWO.
Temperatures Thursday will warm even a bit more from Wednesday, with
lows dipping only into the upper 40s to mid 50s and highs reaching
into the low to mid 70s over eastern upper and in the upper 70s to
low 80s over northern lower.

TJL

Sharpening upper trof will progress thru the northern Great Lakes
Thu night. Showers remain likely for most of the area, and have
added thunder to Thu evening. Precip threat largely ends by Fri
morning, with just a slight chance of a lingering shower or two.

This system will close off as it gradually moves a for most.cross
Quebec thru the weekend. That leaves us in an extended period of nw
flow aloft. Gfs/Ecmwf both have minimal shortwave activity embedded
within that flow, and are thus inclined to keep us dry. Historically
speaking, a lengthy period of featureless nw flow aloft is unlikely;
at some point, a shortwave (perhaps strong enough to kick off some
showers) will reveal itself. However, timing such a feature is not
possible at this time. So will roll with a dry holiday weekend
forecast for now.

Temps will be cool on Friday in the wake of the departing system,
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. After that, slow moderation
is expected thru the 4th.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Band of mvfr producing stratus (even some drizzle) will continue
to slowly sag south through early this morning. Aggressive
clearing will spread in from north to south behind this, likely
overspreading all taf locations by later this morning and early
afternoon. Clear skies with no vis restrictions will continue
through Tonight. Marginally gusty northwest to north winds today,
with winds quickly subsiding this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Gustier NW winds continue into this evening before turning a bit
more northerly later tonight through Tuesday, bringing marginal
small craft advisory conditions. Winds/waves will diminish for later
Tuesday through Wednesday. Weather-wise, some very spotty
showers/sprinkles are possible through tonight. But improving
weather is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...TJL/JZ
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...Adam




000
FXUS63 KMQT 280523
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
123 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Latest stlt imagery indicates lo clds still extend into nrn Lk Sup
at 03Z. Although some drier near sfc air has reached Upr MI, slowed
down the clrg trend to account for the more persistent clds. Also
raised fcst min temps a couple of degrees over the interior W to
account for a shorter period of moclr skies before sunrise in that
area.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Deep trough aloft is sliding over northern Quebec while secondary
trough containing the h925-h85 thermal trough (h85 temps down to +4c)
slides across northern MN and Lk Superior. Sfc cold front bringing
push of cold air has swept across Upr Michigana and recently arrived
over northern Lk Michigan. Temps along Lk Superior shore have fallen
into the 50s. Temps along Lk Michigan have fallen to around 60
degrees after reaching the low 70s earlier. Have seen plenty of
clouds and scattered showers, mainly over the west and central.
Rainfall amounts even in the heavier showers likely have been less
than 0.10 inch. Clearning is not that far upstream. Weak
shortwave/q-vector convergence affects central and east cwa late this
aftn than another wave drops through over mainly east cwa later this
evening and overnight. Kept isold mention for showers going over the
east but with drying and q-vector divergence have it becoming dry
over the west and central by early evening. With higher waves the
beach hazard statement will continue for Marquette and Alger counties
this evening. As skies clear and winds become light over the west may
see temps fall to the upr 30s/low 40s as occurred this morning under
the edge of the High in Manitoba and northern Ontario. Farther to the
east, gradient north winds should keep temps up in the mid 40s to low
50s.

Any lingering clouds will sweep out of the eastern cwa on Tue morning
as the high builds overhead. Winds will be from the N-NW, strongest
east half. Even there though winds will diminish into the afternoon
as the high settles overhead. Winds across the west will start off light
and variable with lake breeze developing. With persistent onshore
flow, temps will remain cool near Lk Superior to the east of
Marquette but will bounce back to the upper 60s/around 70 elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies 00z Wed with troughing
over the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave along the
Manitoba/Ontario border. This shortwave moves into western Ontario
12z Wed and then a trough moves into the upper Great Lakes on Thu.
Nam brings in some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper
moisture on Thu.

Overall, made very few changes to the going forecast overall for
temperatures or weather. Kept in slight chance pops in the western
and central cwa for Wed afternoon as there could be some lake breeze
convergence which could kick off a shower. Best chances for rain
arrive for Thu and went likely pops for the most part.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper
Great Lakes 12z Fri with cooler air over the region. This trough
moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat and this trough moves into
the ern U.S. 12z Mon. The forecast looks dry during this time with a
slow warming trend with temperatures remaining below normal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

As drier air associated with expanding hi pres in Ontario moves into
the Upper Lks tngt, expect VFR conditions with clearing. Moclr skies
wl be then rule thru this evng with the dry hi pres then moving over
the area. There wl be some gusty N winds at SAW accentuated by
daytime heating/mixing and flow off Lk Sup, but these winds wl
diminish by sunset.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

NW winds to 20 kts behind a cold front will diminish from west to
east this evening. Expect light winds less than 15 kts Tue into Thu
as high pressure settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front
crossing later Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into
Fri, strongest over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than
15 kts late Fri into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 280523
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
123 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Latest stlt imagery indicates lo clds still extend into nrn Lk Sup
at 03Z. Although some drier near sfc air has reached Upr MI, slowed
down the clrg trend to account for the more persistent clds. Also
raised fcst min temps a couple of degrees over the interior W to
account for a shorter period of moclr skies before sunrise in that
area.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Deep trough aloft is sliding over northern Quebec while secondary
trough containing the h925-h85 thermal trough (h85 temps down to +4c)
slides across northern MN and Lk Superior. Sfc cold front bringing
push of cold air has swept across Upr Michigana and recently arrived
over northern Lk Michigan. Temps along Lk Superior shore have fallen
into the 50s. Temps along Lk Michigan have fallen to around 60
degrees after reaching the low 70s earlier. Have seen plenty of
clouds and scattered showers, mainly over the west and central.
Rainfall amounts even in the heavier showers likely have been less
than 0.10 inch. Clearning is not that far upstream. Weak
shortwave/q-vector convergence affects central and east cwa late this
aftn than another wave drops through over mainly east cwa later this
evening and overnight. Kept isold mention for showers going over the
east but with drying and q-vector divergence have it becoming dry
over the west and central by early evening. With higher waves the
beach hazard statement will continue for Marquette and Alger counties
this evening. As skies clear and winds become light over the west may
see temps fall to the upr 30s/low 40s as occurred this morning under
the edge of the High in Manitoba and northern Ontario. Farther to the
east, gradient north winds should keep temps up in the mid 40s to low
50s.

Any lingering clouds will sweep out of the eastern cwa on Tue morning
as the high builds overhead. Winds will be from the N-NW, strongest
east half. Even there though winds will diminish into the afternoon
as the high settles overhead. Winds across the west will start off light
and variable with lake breeze developing. With persistent onshore
flow, temps will remain cool near Lk Superior to the east of
Marquette but will bounce back to the upper 60s/around 70 elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies 00z Wed with troughing
over the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave along the
Manitoba/Ontario border. This shortwave moves into western Ontario
12z Wed and then a trough moves into the upper Great Lakes on Thu.
Nam brings in some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper
moisture on Thu.

Overall, made very few changes to the going forecast overall for
temperatures or weather. Kept in slight chance pops in the western
and central cwa for Wed afternoon as there could be some lake breeze
convergence which could kick off a shower. Best chances for rain
arrive for Thu and went likely pops for the most part.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper
Great Lakes 12z Fri with cooler air over the region. This trough
moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat and this trough moves into
the ern U.S. 12z Mon. The forecast looks dry during this time with a
slow warming trend with temperatures remaining below normal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

As drier air associated with expanding hi pres in Ontario moves into
the Upper Lks tngt, expect VFR conditions with clearing. Moclr skies
wl be then rule thru this evng with the dry hi pres then moving over
the area. There wl be some gusty N winds at SAW accentuated by
daytime heating/mixing and flow off Lk Sup, but these winds wl
diminish by sunset.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

NW winds to 20 kts behind a cold front will diminish from west to
east this evening. Expect light winds less than 15 kts Tue into Thu
as high pressure settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front
crossing later Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into
Fri, strongest over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than
15 kts late Fri into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KDTX 280440
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1240 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...

Effective cold frontal boundary has already pushed southwestward off
Lake Huron and crossed terminals with SCT-BKN lower VFR cigs on the
order of 4000-6000 feet. Synoptic scale front, with additional BKN
to OVC stratus in the MVFR to lower VFR range, will drop south from
northern lower Michigan and bring an expanding area of cigs between
2500-4500 feet during the night with the lowest cigs affecting
KMBS/KFNT. These conditions will persist into the daytime, but
drier air will work in during the afternoon/early evening and lead
to lifting cigs and eventually FEW-SCT skies.

For DTW...Lower VFR cigs will gradually build southward into the
terminal during the night and remain in place through the morning.
A gradual lifting/clearing of the clouds will then take place late
in the day and especially Tuesday night. NW winds may gust to near
20 knots during best mixing of day, with winds veering to NNE as
another boundary drops south trough area.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Medium for ceilings AOB 5000 feet overnight through morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures responded nicely today (around 90/lower 90s), ahead of
a cold front which is currently sinking south through the state.
Airmass, especially in the mid levels (12z dtx 700 mb dew pt
depression of 30 c) is too dry to generate any showers, as dew pts
have mixed down into the upper 40s-50s. The deep boundary layer
mixing also has been sufficient to generate wind gusts of 25 to 30
knots. Should see an abrupt temperature drop this evening,
especially across the Thumb region where winds will shift to the
northeast off Lake Huron.

Cooler and dry northwest flow setting up over the next several days,
maintaining mainly dry conditions across southeast michigan. PW
values forecasted to drop below half an inch Tuesday night. Upper
wave currently over Minnesota slides through the Western Great Lakes
Tonight, bringing a small shot at showers, but steep mid level lapse
rates (6.8-7.0 C/KM) look to be confined to far western lower
Michigan/southern Lake Michigan. A secondary upper level wave/pv
center dropping south from Ontario tonight into Lower Michigan
tomorrow could possibly generate a few sprinkles/isolated light
showers as weak moisture axis/850-700 mb theta ridge translates
south through the day. At very least, cold advection (850 mb temps
falling into mid/upper single numbers) and steep low level lapse
rates should be sufficient to generate considerable cloud cover,
which should be able to hold maxes down in the low to mid 70s.
Favorable radiating night Tuesday night, and min temperatures a good
radiators should follow into the 40s. The dry airmass should rebound
significantly during the day on Wednesday with full late june
insolation, and expected maxes in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees,
as 850 mb temps progged to rise into the lower teens, per 12z euro.

Medium-range guidance favors another dry day Thursday under
lingering surface high. Vorticity lobe extending from upper low
south of James Bay is forecast to rotate through the Great Lakes
Thursday night/early Friday. Rain chances are in the forecast
during this time frame , but not much to get excited about due to
limited period of moisture return and quick-moving system. Upper
northwesterly flow, a surface high, and a dry column of air should
keep things dry otherwise for the 4th of July weekend. With longwave
upper trough in place expect temps to run near to a bit below normal.

MARINE...
Cold front across northern Lake Huron will move south of the Great
Lakes by morning.  Strong westerly winds ahead of the front will veer
to the north northwest on Tuesday.  Some scattered light showers
will be possible behind the front across mainly Lake Huron as upper
level disturbance swings through Tuesday.  High pressure Wednesday
will bring light and some what variable winds that will shift to the
southwest ahead of another cold front that will pass through
Thursday night.

Winds will remain just below small craft advisory criteria for the
nearshore of Lake Huron and outer Saginaw Bay but waves from a
moderate and unstable northerly flow will produce waves in the 3 to
5 foot range across outer Saginaw Bay and the northern tip of the
Thumb which will require small craft advisories mainly in the 4am
to 4pm time period.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening FOR MIZ049-055.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday FOR LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...NONE.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SF/DT
MARINE.......DRC


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KGRR 280424
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1224 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will be pushing in from the northwest tonight. This
will result in increasing cloud cover this evening and possibly a
few showers tonight. Much cooler air will settle into Lower
Michigan behind the front on Tuesday. A few showers may linger,
but limited moisture should keep most locations dry. Aside from a
quick shot of rain late Thursday into Friday, much of the week is
dry with temperatures near or slightly below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Have delayed the increase in cloud cover a bit for areas south of
a line from Muskegon to Mt Pleasant based on latest satellite
imagery and latest model RH Trends. Probability of any measurable
precip tonight looks really low and generally restricted to areas
north of a Muskegon to Mt Pleasant line including Ludington.
Probably just sprinkles if anything occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Visible satellite imagery continues to show the gradual southward
progression of the cloud shield over Northern and Central Lower
Michigan. This trend will continue with much of Southwest Lower
Michigan seeing more in the way of low to mid level clouds through
the afternoon and evening hours.

Moisture remains limited and largely confined to the lower levels
with this front. A few showers may pop overnight along the front
as it pushes from northwest to southeast. Some showers may linger
into Tuesday, but are expected to be quick-hitters with only light
precipitation. The bigger story is the cooler air that filters in
through the day Tuesday. High temperatures will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s, which is not too entirely far off from
record min-max benchmarks.

High pressure will result in more dry weather from late Tuesday
through Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate back to near normal
values with highs in the mid-upper 70s Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Main focus of the long term is on the Thursday through Friday time
frame as a cold front will be traversing the Great Lakes region.
Outside of this time frame, the remainder of the long term looks
dry. The GFS and ECMWF are consistent in showing a frontal passage
occurring on Thursday night and feel this will be our best chance at
precipitation in the long term. Even Thursday and Friday look
relatively dry as the front will be off to our north on Thursday and
likely to our south on Friday. Precipitation amounts look fairly
paltry, on the order of a tenth or two of an inch. There is some
instability in the models but it is somewhat minimal, with CAPE values
on the order of 500 J/KG or less via the ECMWF.

Overall the pattern in the long term will feature cooler than normal
temperatures for this time of year and dry weather. Highs
will generally be in the upper 70s to around 80, while normal highs
are typically in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1224 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Vfr conditions will continue overnight at all the terminals. A
brief period of mvfr conditions is possible during the mid to
late morning hours today due to low clouds. A few light rain
showers or sprinkles are also possible this morning. The
relatively best chance for a brief period of mvfr conditions will
be at KGRR and KLAN from around 12z-16z today.

Vfr conditions are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening. Nnw winds will increase to around 10-15 kts Tuesday
afternoon and early evening before subsiding. Sct-bkn fair wx
cumulus clouds will develop Tuesday afternoon before skies clear
Tuesday evening as high pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will result in winds shifting from west to north and
increasing tonight through Tuesday. Northerly flow is expected to
result in high wave action, especially for open waters and coastal
areas over the southern half of Lake Michigan. Dangerous swimming
conditions will become common all along the lakeshore as we go
through the day Tuesday. Waves of 3 to 6 feet will also make for
hazardous boating conditions. As a result, a small craft advisory
will extend southward Tuesday, along with the beach hazard
statement.

Winds and waves will begin to subside late Tuesday into Wednesday,
which may allow us to assess dropping the headlines at that time.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Slight uptick in river levels near Scottville and Whitehall from
Sunday`s 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, and they are far from any
flood threat. The next best chance of rain will be late Thursday
into Friday. Amounts do not look substantial enough to even put a
dent in the recent dry weather.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through late
     tonight for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meade
SYNOPSIS...JAM
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JAM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 280424
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1224 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will be pushing in from the northwest tonight. This
will result in increasing cloud cover this evening and possibly a
few showers tonight. Much cooler air will settle into Lower
Michigan behind the front on Tuesday. A few showers may linger,
but limited moisture should keep most locations dry. Aside from a
quick shot of rain late Thursday into Friday, much of the week is
dry with temperatures near or slightly below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Have delayed the increase in cloud cover a bit for areas south of
a line from Muskegon to Mt Pleasant based on latest satellite
imagery and latest model RH Trends. Probability of any measurable
precip tonight looks really low and generally restricted to areas
north of a Muskegon to Mt Pleasant line including Ludington.
Probably just sprinkles if anything occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Visible satellite imagery continues to show the gradual southward
progression of the cloud shield over Northern and Central Lower
Michigan. This trend will continue with much of Southwest Lower
Michigan seeing more in the way of low to mid level clouds through
the afternoon and evening hours.

Moisture remains limited and largely confined to the lower levels
with this front. A few showers may pop overnight along the front
as it pushes from northwest to southeast. Some showers may linger
into Tuesday, but are expected to be quick-hitters with only light
precipitation. The bigger story is the cooler air that filters in
through the day Tuesday. High temperatures will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s, which is not too entirely far off from
record min-max benchmarks.

High pressure will result in more dry weather from late Tuesday
through Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate back to near normal
values with highs in the mid-upper 70s Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Main focus of the long term is on the Thursday through Friday time
frame as a cold front will be traversing the Great Lakes region.
Outside of this time frame, the remainder of the long term looks
dry. The GFS and ECMWF are consistent in showing a frontal passage
occurring on Thursday night and feel this will be our best chance at
precipitation in the long term. Even Thursday and Friday look
relatively dry as the front will be off to our north on Thursday and
likely to our south on Friday. Precipitation amounts look fairly
paltry, on the order of a tenth or two of an inch. There is some
instability in the models but it is somewhat minimal, with CAPE values
on the order of 500 J/KG or less via the ECMWF.

Overall the pattern in the long term will feature cooler than normal
temperatures for this time of year and dry weather. Highs
will generally be in the upper 70s to around 80, while normal highs
are typically in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1224 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Vfr conditions will continue overnight at all the terminals. A
brief period of mvfr conditions is possible during the mid to
late morning hours today due to low clouds. A few light rain
showers or sprinkles are also possible this morning. The
relatively best chance for a brief period of mvfr conditions will
be at KGRR and KLAN from around 12z-16z today.

Vfr conditions are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening. Nnw winds will increase to around 10-15 kts Tuesday
afternoon and early evening before subsiding. Sct-bkn fair wx
cumulus clouds will develop Tuesday afternoon before skies clear
Tuesday evening as high pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will result in winds shifting from west to north and
increasing tonight through Tuesday. Northerly flow is expected to
result in high wave action, especially for open waters and coastal
areas over the southern half of Lake Michigan. Dangerous swimming
conditions will become common all along the lakeshore as we go
through the day Tuesday. Waves of 3 to 6 feet will also make for
hazardous boating conditions. As a result, a small craft advisory
will extend southward Tuesday, along with the beach hazard
statement.

Winds and waves will begin to subside late Tuesday into Wednesday,
which may allow us to assess dropping the headlines at that time.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Slight uptick in river levels near Scottville and Whitehall from
Sunday`s 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, and they are far from any
flood threat. The next best chance of rain will be late Thursday
into Friday. Amounts do not look substantial enough to even put a
dent in the recent dry weather.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through late
     tonight for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meade
SYNOPSIS...JAM
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JAM




000
FXUS63 KMQT 280304
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1104 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Latest stlt imagery indicates lo clds still extend into nrn Lk Sup
at 03Z. Although some drier near sfc air has reached Upr MI, slowed
down the clrg trend to account for the more persistent clds. Also
raised fcst min temps a couple of degrees over the interior W to
account for a shorter period of moclr skies before sunrise in that
area.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Deep trough aloft is sliding over northern Quebec while secondary
trough containing the h925-h85 thermal trough (h85 temps down to +4c)
slides across northern MN and Lk Superior. Sfc cold front bringing
push of cold air has swept across Upr Michigana and recently arrived
over northern Lk Michigan. Temps along Lk Superior shore have fallen
into the 50s. Temps along Lk Michigan have fallen to around 60
degrees after reaching the low 70s earlier. Have seen plenty of
clouds and scattered showers, mainly over the west and central.
Rainfall amounts even in the heavier showers likely have been less
than 0.10 inch. Clearning is not that far upstream. Weak
shortwave/q-vector convergence affects central and east cwa late this
aftn than another wave drops through over mainly east cwa later this
evening and overnight. Kept isold mention for showers going over the
east but with drying and q-vector divergence have it becoming dry
over the west and central by early evening. With higher waves the
beach hazard statement will continue for Marquette and Alger counties
this evening. As skies clear and winds become light over the west may
see temps fall to the upr 30s/low 40s as occurred this morning under
the edge of the High in Manitoba and northern Ontario. Farther to the
east, gradient north winds should keep temps up in the mid 40s to low
50s.

Any lingering clouds will sweep out of the eastern cwa on Tue morning
as the high builds overhead. Winds will be from the N-NW, strongest
east half. Even there though winds will diminish into the afternoon
as the high settles overhead. Winds across the west will start off light
and variable with lake breeze developing. With persistent onshore
flow, temps will remain cool near Lk Superior to the east of
Marquette but will bounce back to the upper 60s/around 70 elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies 00z Wed with troughing
over the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave along the
Manitoba/Ontario border. This shortwave moves into western Ontario
12z Wed and then a trough moves into the upper Great Lakes on Thu.
Nam brings in some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper
moisture on Thu.

Overall, made very few changes to the going forecast overall for
temperatures or weather. Kept in slight chance pops in the western
and central cwa for Wed afternoon as there could be some lake breeze
convergence which could kick off a shower. Best chances for rain
arrive for Thu and went likely pops for the most part.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper
Great Lakes 12z Fri with cooler air over the region. This trough
moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat and this trough moves into
the ern U.S. 12z Mon. The forecast looks dry during this time with a
slow warming trend with temperatures remaining below normal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 723 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

As drier air associated with expanding hi pres in Ontario moves into
the Upper Lks tngt, expect lingering MVFR cigs, especially at SAW,
to give way to clrg/VFR conditions. Clear skies wl be the rule on
Tue, with some gusty N winds at SAW accentuated by daytime heating/
mixing and flow off Lk Sup.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

NW winds to 20 kts behind a cold front will diminish from west to
east this evening. Expect light winds less than 15 kts Tue into Thu
as high pressure settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front
crossing later Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into
Fri, strongest over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than
15 kts late Fri into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KGRR 280210
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1010 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will be pushing in from the northwest tonight. This
will result in increasing cloud cover this evening and possibly a
few showers tonight. Much cooler air will settle into Lower
Michigan behind the front on Tuesday. A few showers may linger,
but limited moisture should keep most locations dry. Aside from a
quick shot of rain late Thursday into Friday, much of the week is
dry with temperatures near or slightly below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Have delayed the increase in cloud cover a bit for areas south of
a line from Muskegon to Mt Pleasant based on latest satellite
imagery and latest model RH Trends. Probability of any measurable
precip tonight looks really low and generally restricted to areas
north of a Muskegon to Mt Pleasant line including Ludington.
Probably just sprinkles if anything occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Visible satellite imagery continues to show the gradual southward
progression of the cloud shield over Northern and Central Lower
Michigan. This trend will continue with much of Southwest Lower
Michigan seeing more in the way of low to mid level clouds through
the afternoon and evening hours.

Moisture remains limited and largely confined to the lower levels
with this front. A few showers may pop overnight along the front
as it pushes from northwest to southeast. Some showers may linger
into Tuesday, but are expected to be quick-hitters with only light
precipitation. The bigger story is the cooler air that filters in
through the day Tuesday. High temperatures will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s, which is not too entirely far off from
record min-max benchmarks.

High pressure will result in more dry weather from late Tuesday
through Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate back to near normal
values with highs in the mid-upper 70s Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Main focus of the long term is on the Thursday through Friday time
frame as a cold front will be traversing the Great Lakes region.
Outside of this time frame, the remainder of the long term looks
dry. The GFS and ECMWF are consistent in showing a frontal passage
occurring on Thursday night and feel this will be our best chance at
precipitation in the long term. Even Thursday and Friday look
relatively dry as the front will be off to our north on Thursday and
likely to our south on Friday. Precipitation amounts look fairly
paltry, on the order of a tenth or two of an inch. There is some
instability in the models but it is somewhat minimal, with CAPE values
on the order of 500 J/KG or less via the ECMWF.

Overall the pattern in the long term will feature cooler than normal
temperatures for this time of year and dry weather. Highs
will generally be in the upper 70s to around 80, while normal highs
are typically in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 759 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The leading edge of the cloud shield dropping down from the north
has bases above 4000 ft, so believe the bulk of the night will be
VFR across srn lwr MI.

A period of MVFR cigs and perhaps a few light showers or
sprinkles should occur between roughly 12z and 16z Tuesday, with
highest probability of MVFR cigs at GRR and LAN. Confidence for
MVFR cigs is a bit lower at the other terminals based on low level
RH progs, but did include a brief mention of 2500 ft cigs at most
of the terminals on Tuesday morning.

Otherwise VFR is likely after 18z Tuesday with SCT-BKN clouds
around 4000 ft and north winds 10-15 kts.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will result in winds shifting from west to north and
increasing tonight through Tuesday. Northerly flow is expected to
result in high wave action, especially for open waters and coastal
areas over the southern half of Lake Michigan. Dangerous swimming
conditions will become common all along the lakeshore as we go
through the day Tuesday. Waves of 3 to 6 feet will also make for
hazardous boating conditions. As a result, a small craft advisory
will extend southward Tuesday, along with the beach hazard
statement.

Winds and waves will begin to subside late Tuesday into Wednesday,
which may allow us to assess dropping the headlines at that time.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Slight uptick in river levels near Scottville and Whitehall from
Sunday`s 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, and they are far from any
flood threat. The next best chance of rain will be late Thursday
into Friday. Amounts do not look substantial enough to even put a
dent in the recent dry weather.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through late
     Tuesday night for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meade
SYNOPSIS...JAM
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Meade
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280202
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1002 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Low clouds and widely scattered light showers continue to spread
into our CWA late this evening in the wake of the secondary cold
front and along/ahead of the approaching upper level trough. Temps
continue to fall this evening as an unseasonably cool airmass
filters into the region in the wake of the cold front. Little will
change as we head into the overnight hours. Mainly cloudy skies
and scattered showers will continue to impact our CWA with ongoing
CAA. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Stacked but filling low pressure system is now moving into western
Ontario but with thermal troughing and wrap around moisture/clouds
sagging down through northern Michigan. Along with daytime heating,
cloud cover has filled in across all of northern Michigan as
anticipated along with some very spotty showers/sprinkles trying
to get going. Meanwhile, compact short wave is pushing through
the Straits/northern Lake Huron area this afternoon within the
broad upper trough. A more pronounced short wave withing the
upper trough axis itself is evident over Minnesota heading into
northern Wisconsin.

Tonight: Upper trough axis/band of lower ceilings north of Lake
Superior will rotate down through northern Michigan later this
evening and into the overnight hours. This may bring isolated to
scattered very light showers/sprinkles to the region although
deeper moisture is lacking and forecast soundings look more
supportive of drizzle than anything (some drizzle has been
reported in southern Ontario this afternoon). Nonetheless, will
keep our low chance pops intact at this juncture. Otherwise,
cooler air continues to spread into the region with lows tonight
dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Guidance is in good agreement with current upper level wave
departing east of the CWA during the early morning hours, leaving
behind only a few lingering showers for the first few hours of the
period of Tuesday morning for the southern part of the forecast area
of northern lower Michigan. There will be some lingering clouds as
well, decreasing coverage throughout Tuesday and becoming mostly
clear by the evening hours as high pressure builds over the Great
Lakes region. Tuesday`s daytime highs will struggle to reach 70
degrees with cool northwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies through
the afternoon. Light winds and clearing skies will maximize
radiational cooling, dipping temperatures down to the low to mid 40s
Wednesday morning (maybe even see some upper 30s over the normal
"cooler" spots of interior portions of northern Michigan??). This
will be about 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year.
Wednesday will have mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures
under said high pressure with temperatures reaching into the low to
mid 70s over much of the forecast area with the exception being
portions of northeast lower, who may have a bit of a downsloping
component, possibly warming into the upper 70s.
Clouds will begin to increase Thursday ahead of a surface low
pressure system that`s forecast to develop over the northern Great
Lakes region. It`s a little too early to pin point exact timing and
intensity as of right now, but it looks like there are some good
parameters for thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon with
aforementioned low pressure system and good upper level support.
Chances will increase the longer the thicker clouds hold off during
afternoon heating. Both the GFS and NAM have near 3000 J/Kg of
MUCAPE, but believe they are overdoing the dewpoints of 66F. Believe
dewpoints will be in the upper 50s, which would be closer to the
1500-2000 J/Kg range. 850MB temperatures in the low 50s allow for
some pretty steep lower-level lapse rates, above 8C. Definitely
warrants something to keep an eye on and mentioned in the HWO.
Temperatures Thursday will warm even a bit more from Wednesday, with
lows dipping only into the upper 40s to mid 50s and highs reaching
into the low to mid 70s over eastern upper and in the upper 70s to
low 80s over northern lower.

TJL

Sharpening upper trof will progress thru the northern Great Lakes
Thu night. Showers remain likely for most of the area, and have
added thunder to Thu evening. Precip threat largely ends by Fri
morning, with just a slight chance of a lingering shower or two.

This system will close off as it gradually moves a for most.cross
Quebec thru the weekend. That leaves us in an extended period of nw
flow aloft. Gfs/Ecmwf both have minimal shortwave activity embedded
within that flow, and are thus inclined to keep us dry. Historically
speaking, a lengthy period of featureless nw flow aloft is unlikely;
at some point, a shortwave (perhaps strong enough to kick off some
showers) will reveal itself. However, timing such a feature is not
possible at this time. So will roll with a dry holiday weekend
forecast for now.

Temps will be cool on Friday in the wake of the departing system,
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. After that, slow moderation
is expected thru the 4th.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The secondary (stronger) cold front will continue to slide east of
Michigan as the upper trough axis swings thru michigan tonight
into Tuesday. Unseasonably cool air accompanied by low level
moisture along and behind the cold front will produce scattered
showers and MVFR cigs tonight into Tuesday morning. Building high
pressure and drier low level air will bring any shower chances to
an end by midday Tuesday...with lifting cigs and some decreasing
clouds throughout the afternoon and into early Tuesday evening.
N/NW winds with remain around 10 kts with some higher gusts
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Gustier NW winds continue into this evening before turning a bit
more northerly later tonight through Tuesday, bringing marginal
small craft advisory conditions. Winds/waves will diminish for later
Tuesday through Wednesday. Weather-wise, some very spotty
showers/sprinkles are possible through tonight. But improving
weather is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...TJL/JZ
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...Adam




000
FXUS63 KGRR 272359
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
759 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will be pushing in from the northwest tonight. This
will result in increasing cloud cover this evening and possibly a
few showers tonight. Much cooler air will settle into Lower
Michigan behind the front on Tuesday. A few showers may linger,
but limited moisture should keep most locations dry. Aside from a
quick shot of rain late Thursday into Friday, much of the week is
dry with temperatures near or slightly below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Visible satellite imagery continues to show the gradual southward
progression of the cloud shield over Northern and Central Lower
Michigan. This trend will continue with much of Southwest Lower
Michigan seeing more in the way of low to mid level clouds through
the afternoon and evening hours.

Moisture remains limited and largely confined to the lower levels
with this front. A few showers may pop overnight along the front
as it pushes from northwest to southeast. Some showers may linger
into Tuesday, but are expected to be quick-hitters with only light
precipitation. The bigger story is the cooler air that filters in
through the day Tuesday. High temperatures will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s, which is not too entirely far off from
record min-max benchmarks.

High pressure will result in more dry weather from late Tuesday
through Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate back to near normal
values with highs in the mid-upper 70s Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Main focus of the long term is on the Thursday through Friday time
frame as a cold front will be traversing the Great Lakes region.
Outside of this time frame, the remainder of the long term looks
dry. The GFS and ECMWF are consistent in showing a frontal passage
occurring on Thursday night and feel this will be our best chance at
precipitation in the long term. Even Thursday and Friday look
relatively dry as the front will be off to our north on Thursday and
likely to our south on Friday. Precipitation amounts look fairly
paltry, on the order of a tenth or two of an inch. There is some
instability in the models but it is somewhat minimal, with CAPE values
on the order of 500 J/KG or less via the ECMWF.

Overall the pattern in the long term will feature cooler than normal
temperatures for this time of year and dry weather. Highs
will generally be in the upper 70s to around 80, while normal highs
are typically in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 759 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The leading edge of the cloud shield dropping down from the north
has bases above 4000 ft, so believe the bulk of the night will be
VFR across srn lwr MI.

A period of MVFR cigs and perhaps a few light showers or
sprinkles should occur between roughly 12z and 16z Tuesday, with
highest probability of MVFR cigs at GRR and LAN. Confidence for
MVFR cigs is a bit lower at the other terminals based on low level
RH progs, but did include a brief mention of 2500 ft cigs at most
of the terminals on Tuesday morning.

Otherwise VFR is likely after 18z Tuesday with SCT-BKN clouds
around 4000 ft and north winds 10-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will result in winds shifting from west to north and
increasing tonight through Tuesday. Northerly flow is expected to
result in high wave action, especially for open waters and coastal
areas over the southern half of Lake Michigan. Dangerous swimming
conditions will become common all along the lakeshore as we go
through the day Tuesday. Waves of 3 to 6 feet will also make for
hazardous boating conditions. As a result, a small craft advisory
will extend southward Tuesday, along with the beach hazard
statement.

Winds and waves will begin to subside late Tuesday into Wednesday,
which may allow us to assess dropping the headlines at that time.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Slight uptick in river levels near Scottville and Whitehall from
Sunday`s 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, and they are far from any
flood threat. The next best chance of rain will be late Thursday
into Friday. Amounts do not look substantial enough to even put a
dent in the recent dry weather.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through late
     Tuesday night for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAM
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Meade
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JAM




000
FXUS63 KMQT 272324
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
724 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Deep trough aloft is sliding over northern Quebec while secondary
trough containing the h925-h85 thermal trough (h85 temps down to +4c)
slides across northern MN and Lk Superior. Sfc cold front bringing
push of cold air has swept across Upr Michigana and recently arrived
over northern Lk Michigan. Temps along Lk Superior shore have fallen
into the 50s. Temps along Lk Michigan have fallen to around 60
degrees after reaching the low 70s earlier. Have seen plenty of
clouds and scattered showers, mainly over the west and central.
Rainfall amounts even in the heavier showers likely have been less
than 0.10 inch. Clearning is not that far upstream. Weak
shortwave/q-vector convergence affects central and east cwa late this
aftn than another wave drops through over mainly east cwa later this
evening and overnight. Kept isold mention for showers going over the
east but with drying and q-vector divergence have it becoming dry
over the west and central by early evening. With higher waves the
beach hazard statement will continue for Marquette and Alger counties
this evening. As skies clear and winds become light over the west may
see temps fall to the upr 30s/low 40s as occurred this morning under
the edge of the High in Manitoba and northern Ontario. Farther to the
east, gradient north winds should keep temps up in the mid 40s to low
50s.

Any lingering clouds will sweep out of the eastern cwa on Tue morning
as the high builds overhead. Winds will be from the N-NW, strongest
east half. Even there though winds will diminish into the afternoon
as the high settles overhead. Winds across the west will start off light
and variable with lake breeze developing. With persistent onshore
flow, temps will remain cool near Lk Superior to the east of
Marquette but will bounce back to the upper 60s/around 70 elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies 00z Wed with troughing
over the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave along the
Manitoba/Ontario border. This shortwave moves into western Ontario
12z Wed and then a trough moves into the upper Great Lakes on Thu.
Nam brings in some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper
moisture on Thu.

Overall, made very few changes to the going forecast overall for
temperatures or weather. Kept in slight chance pops in the western
and central cwa for Wed afternoon as there could be some lake breeze
convergence which could kick off a shower. Best chances for rain
arrive for Thu and went likely pops for the most part.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper
Great Lakes 12z Fri with cooler air over the region. This trough
moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat and this trough moves into
the ern U.S. 12z Mon. The forecast looks dry during this time with a
slow warming trend with temperatures remaining below normal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 723 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

As drier air associated with expanding hi pres in Ontario moves into
the Upper Lks tngt, expect lingering MVFR cigs, especially at SAW,
to give way to clrg/VFR conditions. Clear skies wl be the rule on
Tue, with some gusty N winds at SAW accentuated by daytime heating/
mixing and flow off Lk Sup.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

NW winds to 20 kts behind a cold front will diminish from west to
east this evening. Expect light winds less than 15 kts Tue into Thu
as high pressure settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front
crossing later Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into
Fri, strongest over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than
15 kts late Fri into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 272324
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
724 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Deep trough aloft is sliding over northern Quebec while secondary
trough containing the h925-h85 thermal trough (h85 temps down to +4c)
slides across northern MN and Lk Superior. Sfc cold front bringing
push of cold air has swept across Upr Michigana and recently arrived
over northern Lk Michigan. Temps along Lk Superior shore have fallen
into the 50s. Temps along Lk Michigan have fallen to around 60
degrees after reaching the low 70s earlier. Have seen plenty of
clouds and scattered showers, mainly over the west and central.
Rainfall amounts even in the heavier showers likely have been less
than 0.10 inch. Clearning is not that far upstream. Weak
shortwave/q-vector convergence affects central and east cwa late this
aftn than another wave drops through over mainly east cwa later this
evening and overnight. Kept isold mention for showers going over the
east but with drying and q-vector divergence have it becoming dry
over the west and central by early evening. With higher waves the
beach hazard statement will continue for Marquette and Alger counties
this evening. As skies clear and winds become light over the west may
see temps fall to the upr 30s/low 40s as occurred this morning under
the edge of the High in Manitoba and northern Ontario. Farther to the
east, gradient north winds should keep temps up in the mid 40s to low
50s.

Any lingering clouds will sweep out of the eastern cwa on Tue morning
as the high builds overhead. Winds will be from the N-NW, strongest
east half. Even there though winds will diminish into the afternoon
as the high settles overhead. Winds across the west will start off light
and variable with lake breeze developing. With persistent onshore
flow, temps will remain cool near Lk Superior to the east of
Marquette but will bounce back to the upper 60s/around 70 elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies 00z Wed with troughing
over the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave along the
Manitoba/Ontario border. This shortwave moves into western Ontario
12z Wed and then a trough moves into the upper Great Lakes on Thu.
Nam brings in some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper
moisture on Thu.

Overall, made very few changes to the going forecast overall for
temperatures or weather. Kept in slight chance pops in the western
and central cwa for Wed afternoon as there could be some lake breeze
convergence which could kick off a shower. Best chances for rain
arrive for Thu and went likely pops for the most part.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper
Great Lakes 12z Fri with cooler air over the region. This trough
moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat and this trough moves into
the ern U.S. 12z Mon. The forecast looks dry during this time with a
slow warming trend with temperatures remaining below normal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 723 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

As drier air associated with expanding hi pres in Ontario moves into
the Upper Lks tngt, expect lingering MVFR cigs, especially at SAW,
to give way to clrg/VFR conditions. Clear skies wl be the rule on
Tue, with some gusty N winds at SAW accentuated by daytime heating/
mixing and flow off Lk Sup.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

NW winds to 20 kts behind a cold front will diminish from west to
east this evening. Expect light winds less than 15 kts Tue into Thu
as high pressure settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front
crossing later Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into
Fri, strongest over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than
15 kts late Fri into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KAPX 272305
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
705 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Stacked but filling low pressure system is now moving into western
Ontario but with thermal troughing and wrap around moisture/clouds
sagging down through northern Michigan. Along with daytime heating,
cloud cover has filled in across all of northern Michigan as
anticipated along with some very spotty showers/sprinkles trying
to get going. Meanwhile, compact short wave is pushing through
the Straits/northern Lake Huron area this afternoon within the
broad upper trough. A more pronounced short wave withing the
upper trough axis itself is evident over Minnesota heading into
northern Wisconsin.

Tonight: Upper trough axis/band of lower ceilings north of Lake
Superior will rotate down through northern Michigan later this
evening and into the overnight hours. This may bring isolated to
scattered very light showers/sprinkles to the region although
deeper moisture is lacking and forecast soundings look more
supportive of drizzle than anything (some drizzle has been
reported in southern Ontario this afternoon). Nonetheless, will
keep our low chance pops intact at this juncture. Otherwise,
cooler air continues to spread into the region with lows tonight
dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Guidance is in good agreement with current upper level wave
departing east of the CWA during the early morning hours, leaving
behind only a few lingering showers for the first few hours of the
period of Tuesday morning for the southern part of the forecast area
of northern lower Michigan. There will be some lingering clouds as
well, decreasing coverage throughout Tuesday and becoming mostly
clear by the evening hours as high pressure builds over the Great
Lakes region. Tuesday`s daytime highs will struggle to reach 70
degrees with cool northwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies through
the afternoon. Light winds and clearing skies will maximize
radiational cooling, dipping temperatures down to the low to mid 40s
Wednesday morning (maybe even see some upper 30s over the normal
"cooler" spots of interior portions of northern Michigan??). This
will be about 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year.
Wednesday will have mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures
under said high pressure with temperatures reaching into the low to
mid 70s over much of the forecast area with the exception being
portions of northeast lower, who may have a bit of a downsloping
component, possibly warming into the upper 70s.
Clouds will begin to increase Thursday ahead of a surface low
pressure system that`s forecast to develop over the northern Great
Lakes region. It`s a little too early to pin point exact timing and
intensity as of right now, but it looks like there are some good
parameters for thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon with
aforementioned low pressure system and good upper level support.
Chances will increase the longer the thicker clouds hold off during
afternoon heating. Both the GFS and NAM have near 3000 J/Kg of
MUCAPE, but believe they are overdoing the dewpoints of 66F. Believe
dewpoints will be in the upper 50s, which would be closer to the
1500-2000 J/Kg range. 850MB temperatures in the low 50s allow for
some pretty steep lower-level lapse rates, above 8C. Definitely
warrants something to keep an eye on and mentioned in the HWO.
Temperatures Thursday will warm even a bit more from Wednesday, with
lows dipping only into the upper 40s to mid 50s and highs reaching
into the low to mid 70s over eastern upper and in the upper 70s to
low 80s over northern lower.

TJL

Sharpening upper trof will progress thru the northern Great Lakes
Thu night. Showers remain likely for most of the area, and have
added thunder to Thu evening. Precip threat largely ends by Fri
morning, with just a slight chance of a lingering shower or two.

This system will close off as it gradually moves a for most.cross
Quebec thru the weekend. That leaves us in an extended period of nw
flow aloft. Gfs/Ecmwf both have minimal shortwave activity embedded
within that flow, and are thus inclined to keep us dry. Historically
speaking, a lengthy period of featureless nw flow aloft is unlikely;
at some point, a shortwave (perhaps strong enough to kick off some
showers) will reveal itself. However, timing such a feature is not
possible at this time. So will roll with a dry holiday weekend
forecast for now.

Temps will be cool on Friday in the wake of the departing system,
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. After that, slow moderation
is expected thru the 4th.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The secondary (stronger) cold front will continue to slide east of
Michigan as the upper trough axis swings thru michigan tonight
into Tuesday. Unseasonably cool air accompanied by low level
moisture along and behind the cold front will produce scattered
showers and MVFR cigs tonight into Tuesday morning. Building high
pressure and drier low level air will bring any shower chances to
an end by midday Tuesday...with lifting cigs and some decreasing
clouds throughout the afternoon and into early Tuesday evening.
N/NW winds with remain around 10 kts with some higher gusts
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Gustier NW winds continue into this evening before turning a bit
more northerly later tonight through Tuesday, bringing marginal
small craft advisory conditions. Winds/waves will diminish for later
Tuesday through Wednesday. Weather-wise, some very spotty
showers/sprinkles are possible through tonight. But improving
weather is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...TJL/JZ
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...Adam




000
FXUS63 KAPX 272305
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
705 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Stacked but filling low pressure system is now moving into western
Ontario but with thermal troughing and wrap around moisture/clouds
sagging down through northern Michigan. Along with daytime heating,
cloud cover has filled in across all of northern Michigan as
anticipated along with some very spotty showers/sprinkles trying
to get going. Meanwhile, compact short wave is pushing through
the Straits/northern Lake Huron area this afternoon within the
broad upper trough. A more pronounced short wave withing the
upper trough axis itself is evident over Minnesota heading into
northern Wisconsin.

Tonight: Upper trough axis/band of lower ceilings north of Lake
Superior will rotate down through northern Michigan later this
evening and into the overnight hours. This may bring isolated to
scattered very light showers/sprinkles to the region although
deeper moisture is lacking and forecast soundings look more
supportive of drizzle than anything (some drizzle has been
reported in southern Ontario this afternoon). Nonetheless, will
keep our low chance pops intact at this juncture. Otherwise,
cooler air continues to spread into the region with lows tonight
dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Guidance is in good agreement with current upper level wave
departing east of the CWA during the early morning hours, leaving
behind only a few lingering showers for the first few hours of the
period of Tuesday morning for the southern part of the forecast area
of northern lower Michigan. There will be some lingering clouds as
well, decreasing coverage throughout Tuesday and becoming mostly
clear by the evening hours as high pressure builds over the Great
Lakes region. Tuesday`s daytime highs will struggle to reach 70
degrees with cool northwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies through
the afternoon. Light winds and clearing skies will maximize
radiational cooling, dipping temperatures down to the low to mid 40s
Wednesday morning (maybe even see some upper 30s over the normal
"cooler" spots of interior portions of northern Michigan??). This
will be about 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year.
Wednesday will have mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures
under said high pressure with temperatures reaching into the low to
mid 70s over much of the forecast area with the exception being
portions of northeast lower, who may have a bit of a downsloping
component, possibly warming into the upper 70s.
Clouds will begin to increase Thursday ahead of a surface low
pressure system that`s forecast to develop over the northern Great
Lakes region. It`s a little too early to pin point exact timing and
intensity as of right now, but it looks like there are some good
parameters for thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon with
aforementioned low pressure system and good upper level support.
Chances will increase the longer the thicker clouds hold off during
afternoon heating. Both the GFS and NAM have near 3000 J/Kg of
MUCAPE, but believe they are overdoing the dewpoints of 66F. Believe
dewpoints will be in the upper 50s, which would be closer to the
1500-2000 J/Kg range. 850MB temperatures in the low 50s allow for
some pretty steep lower-level lapse rates, above 8C. Definitely
warrants something to keep an eye on and mentioned in the HWO.
Temperatures Thursday will warm even a bit more from Wednesday, with
lows dipping only into the upper 40s to mid 50s and highs reaching
into the low to mid 70s over eastern upper and in the upper 70s to
low 80s over northern lower.

TJL

Sharpening upper trof will progress thru the northern Great Lakes
Thu night. Showers remain likely for most of the area, and have
added thunder to Thu evening. Precip threat largely ends by Fri
morning, with just a slight chance of a lingering shower or two.

This system will close off as it gradually moves a for most.cross
Quebec thru the weekend. That leaves us in an extended period of nw
flow aloft. Gfs/Ecmwf both have minimal shortwave activity embedded
within that flow, and are thus inclined to keep us dry. Historically
speaking, a lengthy period of featureless nw flow aloft is unlikely;
at some point, a shortwave (perhaps strong enough to kick off some
showers) will reveal itself. However, timing such a feature is not
possible at this time. So will roll with a dry holiday weekend
forecast for now.

Temps will be cool on Friday in the wake of the departing system,
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. After that, slow moderation
is expected thru the 4th.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The secondary (stronger) cold front will continue to slide east of
Michigan as the upper trough axis swings thru michigan tonight
into Tuesday. Unseasonably cool air accompanied by low level
moisture along and behind the cold front will produce scattered
showers and MVFR cigs tonight into Tuesday morning. Building high
pressure and drier low level air will bring any shower chances to
an end by midday Tuesday...with lifting cigs and some decreasing
clouds throughout the afternoon and into early Tuesday evening.
N/NW winds with remain around 10 kts with some higher gusts
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Gustier NW winds continue into this evening before turning a bit
more northerly later tonight through Tuesday, bringing marginal
small craft advisory conditions. Winds/waves will diminish for later
Tuesday through Wednesday. Weather-wise, some very spotty
showers/sprinkles are possible through tonight. But improving
weather is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...TJL/JZ
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...Adam




000
FXUS63 KDTX 272301
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
701 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016


.AVIATION...

Cold front will pass through terminals early this evening and bring
NW flow, which will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Low
level moisture will increase in the wake of this front with BKN-OVC
stratus/strato-cu filtering south into area later this evening into
the overnight. By late tonight/Tuesday morning, MVFR cigs will be
possible as far south as KPTK, with the I-94 terminals more than
likely remaining lower VFR in the 4-5kft range. Secondary frontal
boundary will then drop south through the area Tuesday afternoon.
This front will veer winds to the N/NNE and eventually lead to
FEW/SCT stratus by the end of this forecast period. Winds may be a
bit gusty again on Tuesday, but less so than today with gusts more
or less remaining below 20 knots.

For DTW...Gusty WNW flow will ease early in the forecast with wind
speeds only 5-10 knots from mid evening through the overnight. Flow
will become NW behind cold front and BKN stratus in the wake of the
front will eventually bring CIGS AOB 5kft late tonight into Tuesday.


//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Moderate for ceilings AOB 5000 feet overnight into Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures responded nicely today (around 90/lower 90s), ahead of
a cold front which is currently sinking south through the state.
Airmass, especially in the mid levels (12z dtx 700 mb dew pt
depression of 30 c) is too dry to generate any showers, as dew pts
have mixed down into the upper 40s-50s. The deep boundary layer
mixing also has been sufficient to generate wind gusts of 25 to 30
knots. Should see an abrupt temperature drop this evening,
especially across the Thumb region where winds will shift to the
northeast off Lake Huron.

Cooler and dry northwest flow setting up over the next several days,
maintaining mainly dry conditions across southeast michigan. PW
values forecasted to drop below half an inch Tuesday night. Upper
wave currently over Minnesota slides through the Western Great Lakes
Tonight, bringing a small shot at showers, but steep mid level lapse
rates (6.8-7.0 C/KM) look to be confined to far western lower
Michigan/southern Lake Michigan. A secondary upper level wave/pv
center dropping south from Ontario tonight into Lower Michigan
tomorrow could possibly generate a few sprinkles/isolated light
showers as weak moisture axis/850-700 mb theta ridge translates
south through the day. At very least, cold advection (850 mb temps
falling into mid/upper single numbers) and steep low level lapse
rates should be sufficient to generate considerable cloud cover,
which should be able to hold maxes down in the low to mid 70s.
Favorable radiating night Tuesday night, and min temperatures a good
radiators should follow into the 40s. The dry airmass should rebound
significantly during the day on Wednesday with full late june
insolation, and expected maxes in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees,
as 850 mb temps progged to rise into the lower teens, per 12z euro.

Medium-range guidance favors another dry day Thursday under
lingering surface high. Vorticity lobe extending from upper low
south of James Bay is forecast to rotate through the Great Lakes
Thursday night/early Friday. Rain chances are in the forecast
during this time frame , but not much to get excited about due to
limited period of moisture return and quick-moving system. Upper
northwesterly flow, a surface high, and a dry column of air should
keep things dry otherwise for the 4th of July weekend. With longwave
upper trough in place expect temps to run near to a bit below normal.

MARINE...
Cold front across northern Lake Huron will move south of the Great
Lakes by morning.  Strong westerly winds ahead of the front will veer
to the north northwest on Tuesday.  Some scattered light showers
will be possible behind the front across mainly Lake Huron as upper
level disturbance swings through Tuesday.  High pressure Wednesday
will bring light and some what variable winds that will shift to the
southwest ahead of another cold front that will pass through
Thursday night.

Winds will remain just below small craft advisory criteria for the
nearshore of Lake Huron and outer Saginaw Bay but waves from a
moderate and unstable northerly flow will produce waves in the 3 to
5 foot range across outer Saginaw Bay and the northern tip of the
Thumb which will require small craft advisories mainly in the 4am
to 4pm time period.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening FOR MIZ049-055.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday FOR LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SF/DT
MARINE.......DRC


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KDTX 272301
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
701 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016


.AVIATION...

Cold front will pass through terminals early this evening and bring
NW flow, which will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Low
level moisture will increase in the wake of this front with BKN-OVC
stratus/strato-cu filtering south into area later this evening into
the overnight. By late tonight/Tuesday morning, MVFR cigs will be
possible as far south as KPTK, with the I-94 terminals more than
likely remaining lower VFR in the 4-5kft range. Secondary frontal
boundary will then drop south through the area Tuesday afternoon.
This front will veer winds to the N/NNE and eventually lead to
FEW/SCT stratus by the end of this forecast period. Winds may be a
bit gusty again on Tuesday, but less so than today with gusts more
or less remaining below 20 knots.

For DTW...Gusty WNW flow will ease early in the forecast with wind
speeds only 5-10 knots from mid evening through the overnight. Flow
will become NW behind cold front and BKN stratus in the wake of the
front will eventually bring CIGS AOB 5kft late tonight into Tuesday.


//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Moderate for ceilings AOB 5000 feet overnight into Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures responded nicely today (around 90/lower 90s), ahead of
a cold front which is currently sinking south through the state.
Airmass, especially in the mid levels (12z dtx 700 mb dew pt
depression of 30 c) is too dry to generate any showers, as dew pts
have mixed down into the upper 40s-50s. The deep boundary layer
mixing also has been sufficient to generate wind gusts of 25 to 30
knots. Should see an abrupt temperature drop this evening,
especially across the Thumb region where winds will shift to the
northeast off Lake Huron.

Cooler and dry northwest flow setting up over the next several days,
maintaining mainly dry conditions across southeast michigan. PW
values forecasted to drop below half an inch Tuesday night. Upper
wave currently over Minnesota slides through the Western Great Lakes
Tonight, bringing a small shot at showers, but steep mid level lapse
rates (6.8-7.0 C/KM) look to be confined to far western lower
Michigan/southern Lake Michigan. A secondary upper level wave/pv
center dropping south from Ontario tonight into Lower Michigan
tomorrow could possibly generate a few sprinkles/isolated light
showers as weak moisture axis/850-700 mb theta ridge translates
south through the day. At very least, cold advection (850 mb temps
falling into mid/upper single numbers) and steep low level lapse
rates should be sufficient to generate considerable cloud cover,
which should be able to hold maxes down in the low to mid 70s.
Favorable radiating night Tuesday night, and min temperatures a good
radiators should follow into the 40s. The dry airmass should rebound
significantly during the day on Wednesday with full late june
insolation, and expected maxes in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees,
as 850 mb temps progged to rise into the lower teens, per 12z euro.

Medium-range guidance favors another dry day Thursday under
lingering surface high. Vorticity lobe extending from upper low
south of James Bay is forecast to rotate through the Great Lakes
Thursday night/early Friday. Rain chances are in the forecast
during this time frame , but not much to get excited about due to
limited period of moisture return and quick-moving system. Upper
northwesterly flow, a surface high, and a dry column of air should
keep things dry otherwise for the 4th of July weekend. With longwave
upper trough in place expect temps to run near to a bit below normal.

MARINE...
Cold front across northern Lake Huron will move south of the Great
Lakes by morning.  Strong westerly winds ahead of the front will veer
to the north northwest on Tuesday.  Some scattered light showers
will be possible behind the front across mainly Lake Huron as upper
level disturbance swings through Tuesday.  High pressure Wednesday
will bring light and some what variable winds that will shift to the
southwest ahead of another cold front that will pass through
Thursday night.

Winds will remain just below small craft advisory criteria for the
nearshore of Lake Huron and outer Saginaw Bay but waves from a
moderate and unstable northerly flow will produce waves in the 3 to
5 foot range across outer Saginaw Bay and the northern tip of the
Thumb which will require small craft advisories mainly in the 4am
to 4pm time period.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening FOR MIZ049-055.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday FOR LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SF/DT
MARINE.......DRC


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271952
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
352 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Deep trough aloft is sliding over northern Quebec while secondary
trough containing the h925-h85 thermal trough (h85 temps down to +4c)
slides across northern MN and Lk Superior. Sfc cold front bringing
push of cold air has swept across Upr Michigana and recently arrived
over northern Lk Michigan. Temps along Lk Superior shore have fallen
into the 50s. Temps along Lk Michigan have fallen to around 60
degrees after reaching the low 70s earlier. Have seen plenty of
clouds and scattered showers, mainly over the west and central.
Rainfall amounts even in the heavier showers likely have been less
than 0.10 inch. Clearning is not that far upstream. Weak
shortwave/q-vector convergence affects central and east cwa late this
aftn than another wave drops through over mainly east cwa later this
evening and overnight. Kept isold mention for showers going over the
east but with drying and q-vector divergence have it becoming dry
over the west and central by early evening. With higher waves the
beach hazard statement will continue for Marquette and Alger counties
this evening. As skies clear and winds become light over the west may
see temps fall to the upr 30s/low 40s as occurred this morning under
the edge of the High in Manitoba and northern Ontario. Farther to the
east, gradient north winds should keep temps up in the mid 40s to low
50s.

Any lingering clouds will sweep out of the eastern cwa on Tue morning
as the high builds overhead. Winds will be from the N-NW, strongest
east half. Even there though winds will diminish into the afternoon
as the high settles overhead. Winds across the west will start off light
and variable with lake breeze developing. With persistent onshore
flow, temps will remain cool near Lk Superior to the east of
Marquette but will bounce back to the upper 60s/around 70 elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies 00z Wed with troughing
over the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave along the
Manitoba/Ontario border. This shortwave moves into western Ontario
12z Wed and then a trough moves into the upper Great Lakes on Thu.
Nam brings in some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper
moisture on Thu.

Overall, made very few changes to the going forecast overall for
temperatures or weather. Kept in slight chance pops in the western
and central cwa for Wed afternoon as there could be some lake breeze
convergence which could kick off a shower. Best chances for rain
arrive for Thu and went likely pops for the most part.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper
Great Lakes 12z Fri with cooler air over the region. This trough
moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat and this trough moves into
the ern U.S. 12z Mon. The forecast looks dry during this time with a
slow warming trend with temperatures remaining below normal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 149 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Arrival of a cool moist airmass behind a cold front with additional
moisture provided by Lk Superior will keep MVFR cigs this aftn with
slow scattering out of the cigs tonight. Winds will be gusty from
the north at SAW this aftn, but otherwise should stay less than 15
kts at all the sites into Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

NW winds to 20 kts behind a cold front will diminish from west to
east this evening. Expect light winds less than 15 kts Tue into Thu
as high pressure settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front
crossing later Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into
Fri, strongest over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than
15 kts late Fri into Sat as high pressure moves across.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271938
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
338 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures responded nicely today (around 90/lower 90s), ahead of
a cold front which is currently sinking south through the state.
Airmass, especially in the mid levels (12z dtx 700 mb dew pt
depression of 30 c) is too dry to generate any showers, as dew pts
have mixed down into the upper 40s-50s. The deep boundary layer
mixing also has been sufficient to generate wind gusts of 25 to 30
knots. Should see an abrupt temperature drop this evening,
especially across the Thumb region where winds will shift to the
northeast off Lake Huron.

Cooler and dry northwest flow setting up over the next several days,
maintaining mainly dry conditions across southeast michigan. PW
values forecasted to drop below half an inch Tuesday night. Upper
wave currently over Minnesota slides through the Western Great Lakes
Tonight, bringing a small shot at showers, but steep mid level lapse
rates (6.8-7.0 C/KM) look to be confined to far western lower
Michigan/southern Lake Michigan. A secondary upper level wave/pv
center dropping south from Ontario tonight into Lower Michigan
tomorrow could possibly generate a few sprinkles/isolated light
showers as weak moisture axis/850-700 mb theta ridge translates
south through the day. At very least, cold advection (850 mb temps
falling into mid/upper single numbers) and steep low level lapse
rates should be sufficient to generate considerable cloud cover,
which should be able to hold maxes down in the low to mid 70s.
Favorable radiating night Tuesday night, and min temperatures a good
radiators should follow into the 40s. The dry airmass should rebound
significantly during the day on Wednesday with full late june
insolation, and expected maxes in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees,
as 850 mb temps progged to rise into the lower teens, per 12z euro.

Medium-range guidance favors another dry day Thursday under
lingering surface high. Vorticity lobe extending from upper low
south of James Bay is forecast to rotate through the Great Lakes
Thursday night/early Friday. Rain chances are in the forecast
during this time frame , but not much to get excited about due to
limited period of moisture return and quick-moving system. Upper
northwesterly flow, a surface high, and a dry column of air should
keep things dry otherwise for the 4th of July weekend. With longwave
upper trough in place expect temps to run near to a bit below normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front across northern Lake Huron will move south of the Great
Lakes by morning.  Strong westerly winds ahead of the front will veer
to the north northwest on Tuesday.  Some scattered light showers
will be possible behind the front across mainly Lake Huron as upper
level disturbance swings through Tuesday.  High pressure Wednesday
will bring light and some what variable winds that will shift to the
southwest ahead of another cold front that will pass through
Thursday night.

Winds will remain just below small craft advisory criteria for the
nearshore of Lake Huron and outer Saginaw Bay but waves from a
moderate and unstable northerly flow will produce waves in the 3 to
5 foot range across outer Saginaw Bay and the northern tip of the
Thumb which will require small craft advisories mainly in the 4am
to 4pm time period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

AVIATION...
Brisk westerly winds will continue this afternoon and evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. Atmosphere very dry allowing
strong heating and mixing upwards nr 700mb by this evening which
will produce wind gusts around 25 knots with an occassional 30kt
possible. Expect some few to sct cu around 6-7k ft late afternoon
as peak mixing height is reached. Wind gust will subside around
sunset then winds will decrease significantly around frontal
passage which is expected in the northern taf sites around 00z and
southern sites 03z. Post low level moisture and weak instability
will produce broken cloud deck in the 2-4k ft range north where
moisture will be a bit higher and deeper to about 3-4k ft southern
tafs. Winds will increase a bit with mixing after sunrise Tuesday
while ceiling will raise a little with diurnal heating.

For DTW... Westerly wind gusting to about 25 knots during the
afternoon will bring crosswind threshold into consideration. Local
guidance suggests southwest traffic operations should be maintained.
Wind will then diminish tonight as lower clouds arrive with the next
cold front. Any ceiling is expected to be VFR but less than 5000 ft.
The best chance of MVFR will be late tonight through Tuesday
afternoon.  Instability from cold air advection and surface heating
combine with a mid level trough Tuesday afternoon could produce a
sprinkle or light shower but probability at this time not high enough
to mention in taf.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Low for exceeding cross wind threshold in westerly flow today.

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday FOR LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF/DT
MARINE.......DRC
AVIATION.....DRC


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271938
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
338 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures responded nicely today (around 90/lower 90s), ahead of
a cold front which is currently sinking south through the state.
Airmass, especially in the mid levels (12z dtx 700 mb dew pt
depression of 30 c) is too dry to generate any showers, as dew pts
have mixed down into the upper 40s-50s. The deep boundary layer
mixing also has been sufficient to generate wind gusts of 25 to 30
knots. Should see an abrupt temperature drop this evening,
especially across the Thumb region where winds will shift to the
northeast off Lake Huron.

Cooler and dry northwest flow setting up over the next several days,
maintaining mainly dry conditions across southeast michigan. PW
values forecasted to drop below half an inch Tuesday night. Upper
wave currently over Minnesota slides through the Western Great Lakes
Tonight, bringing a small shot at showers, but steep mid level lapse
rates (6.8-7.0 C/KM) look to be confined to far western lower
Michigan/southern Lake Michigan. A secondary upper level wave/pv
center dropping south from Ontario tonight into Lower Michigan
tomorrow could possibly generate a few sprinkles/isolated light
showers as weak moisture axis/850-700 mb theta ridge translates
south through the day. At very least, cold advection (850 mb temps
falling into mid/upper single numbers) and steep low level lapse
rates should be sufficient to generate considerable cloud cover,
which should be able to hold maxes down in the low to mid 70s.
Favorable radiating night Tuesday night, and min temperatures a good
radiators should follow into the 40s. The dry airmass should rebound
significantly during the day on Wednesday with full late june
insolation, and expected maxes in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees,
as 850 mb temps progged to rise into the lower teens, per 12z euro.

Medium-range guidance favors another dry day Thursday under
lingering surface high. Vorticity lobe extending from upper low
south of James Bay is forecast to rotate through the Great Lakes
Thursday night/early Friday. Rain chances are in the forecast
during this time frame , but not much to get excited about due to
limited period of moisture return and quick-moving system. Upper
northwesterly flow, a surface high, and a dry column of air should
keep things dry otherwise for the 4th of July weekend. With longwave
upper trough in place expect temps to run near to a bit below normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front across northern Lake Huron will move south of the Great
Lakes by morning.  Strong westerly winds ahead of the front will veer
to the north northwest on Tuesday.  Some scattered light showers
will be possible behind the front across mainly Lake Huron as upper
level disturbance swings through Tuesday.  High pressure Wednesday
will bring light and some what variable winds that will shift to the
southwest ahead of another cold front that will pass through
Thursday night.

Winds will remain just below small craft advisory criteria for the
nearshore of Lake Huron and outer Saginaw Bay but waves from a
moderate and unstable northerly flow will produce waves in the 3 to
5 foot range across outer Saginaw Bay and the northern tip of the
Thumb which will require small craft advisories mainly in the 4am
to 4pm time period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

AVIATION...
Brisk westerly winds will continue this afternoon and evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. Atmosphere very dry allowing
strong heating and mixing upwards nr 700mb by this evening which
will produce wind gusts around 25 knots with an occassional 30kt
possible. Expect some few to sct cu around 6-7k ft late afternoon
as peak mixing height is reached. Wind gust will subside around
sunset then winds will decrease significantly around frontal
passage which is expected in the northern taf sites around 00z and
southern sites 03z. Post low level moisture and weak instability
will produce broken cloud deck in the 2-4k ft range north where
moisture will be a bit higher and deeper to about 3-4k ft southern
tafs. Winds will increase a bit with mixing after sunrise Tuesday
while ceiling will raise a little with diurnal heating.

For DTW... Westerly wind gusting to about 25 knots during the
afternoon will bring crosswind threshold into consideration. Local
guidance suggests southwest traffic operations should be maintained.
Wind will then diminish tonight as lower clouds arrive with the next
cold front. Any ceiling is expected to be VFR but less than 5000 ft.
The best chance of MVFR will be late tonight through Tuesday
afternoon.  Instability from cold air advection and surface heating
combine with a mid level trough Tuesday afternoon could produce a
sprinkle or light shower but probability at this time not high enough
to mention in taf.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Low for exceeding cross wind threshold in westerly flow today.

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday FOR LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF/DT
MARINE.......DRC
AVIATION.....DRC


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271930
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Stacked but filling low pressure system is now moving into western
Ontario but with thermal troughing and wrap around moisture/clouds
sagging down through northern Michigan. Along with daytime heating,
cloud cover has filled in across all of northern Michigan as
anticipated along with some very spotty showers/sprinkles trying
to get going. Meanwhile, compact short wave is pushing through
the Straits/northern Lake Huron area this afternoon within the
broad upper trough. A more pronounced short wave withing the
upper trough axis itself is evident over Minnesota heading into
northern Wisconsin.

Tonight: Upper trough axis/band of lower ceilings north of Lake
Superior will rotate down through northern Michigan later this
evening and into the overnight hours. This may bring isolated to
scattered very light showers/sprinkles to the region although
deeper moisture is lacking and forecast soundings look more
supportive of drizzle than anything (some drizzle has been
reported in southern Ontario this afternoon). Nonetheless, will
keep our low chance pops intact at this juncture. Otherwise,
cooler air continues to spread into the region with lows tonight
dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Guidance is in good agreement with current upper level wave
departing east of the CWA during the early morning hours, leaving
behind only a few lingering showers for the first few hours of the
period of Tuesday morning for the southern part of the forecast area
of northern lower Michigan. There will be some lingering clouds as
well, decreasing coverage throughout Tuesday and becoming mostly
clear by the evening hours as high pressure builds over the Great
Lakes region. Tuesday`s daytime highs will struggle to reach 70
degrees with cool northwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies through
the afternoon. Light winds and clearing skies will maximize
radiational cooling, dipping temperatures down to the low to mid 40s
Wednesday morning (maybe even see some upper 30s over the normal
"cooler" spots of interior portions of northern Michigan??). This
will be about 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year.
Wednesday will have mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures
under said high pressure with temperatures reaching into the low to
mid 70s over much of the forecast area with the exception being
portions of northeast lower, who may have a bit of a downsloping
component, possibly warming into the upper 70s.
Clouds will begin to increase Thursday ahead of a surface low
pressure system that`s forecast to develop over the northern Great
Lakes region. It`s a little too early to pin point exact timing and
intensity as of right now, but it looks like there are some good
parameters for thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon with
aforementioned low pressure system and good upper level support.
Chances will increase the longer the thicker clouds hold off during
afternoon heating. Both the GFS and NAM have near 3000 J/Kg of
MUCAPE, but believe they are overdoing the dewpoints of 66F. Believe
dewpoints will be in the upper 50s, which would be closer to the
1500-2000 J/Kg range. 850MB temperatures in the low 50s allow for
some pretty steep lower-level lapse rates, above 8C. Definitely
warrants something to keep an eye on and mentioned in the HWO.
Temperatures Thursday will warm even a bit more from Wednesday, with
lows dipping only into the upper 40s to mid 50s and highs reaching
into the low to mid 70s over eastern upper and in the upper 70s to
low 80s over northern lower.

TJL

Sharpening upper trof will progress thru the northern Great Lakes
Thu night. Showers remain likely for most of the area, and have
added thunder to Thu evening. Precip threat largely ends by Fri
morning, with just a slight chance of a lingering shower or two.

This system will close off as it gradually moves a for most.cross
Quebec thru the weekend. That leaves us in an extended period of nw
flow aloft. Gfs/Ecmwf both have minimal shortwave activity embedded
within that flow, and are thus inclined to keep us dry. Historically
speaking, a lengthy period of featureless nw flow aloft is unlikely;
at some point, a shortwave (perhaps strong enough to kick off some
showers) will reveal itself. However, timing such a feature is not
possible at this time. So will roll with a dry holiday weekend
forecast for now.

Temps will be cool on Friday in the wake of the departing system,
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. After that, slow moderation
is expected thru the 4th.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR cloud cover has filled in across all of northern lower
Michigan and will more or less persist through the balance of the
afternoon. Upstream surface trough will drop down through the
region tonight and bring a bit deeper low level moisture/weak
forcing and may be enough to generate isolated to scattered
showers.

But otherwise, forecast soundings suggest a batch of lower (MVFR)
cigs dropping down through the region tonight as final push of
cooler air arrives. Have trended the terminal forecasts slightly
more pessimistic, showing a period of MVFR cigs although forecast
confidence for those lower cigs is not high. But in any event,
thicker cloud cover continues out of the region on Tuesday and
with a return to full VFR conditions as we go through the day.

Winds: Some NW gustiness today diminishing this evening. Winds
turn more northerly later tonight through Tuesday with some
gustiness again possible Tuesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Gustier NW winds continue into this evening before turning a bit
more northerly later tonight through Tuesday, bringing marginal
small craft advisory conditions. Winds/waves will diminish for later
Tuesday through Wednesday. Weather-wise, some very spotty
showers/sprinkles are possible through tonight. But improving
weather is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...TJL/JZ
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...Adam




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271930
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Stacked but filling low pressure system is now moving into western
Ontario but with thermal troughing and wrap around moisture/clouds
sagging down through northern Michigan. Along with daytime heating,
cloud cover has filled in across all of northern Michigan as
anticipated along with some very spotty showers/sprinkles trying
to get going. Meanwhile, compact short wave is pushing through
the Straits/northern Lake Huron area this afternoon within the
broad upper trough. A more pronounced short wave withing the
upper trough axis itself is evident over Minnesota heading into
northern Wisconsin.

Tonight: Upper trough axis/band of lower ceilings north of Lake
Superior will rotate down through northern Michigan later this
evening and into the overnight hours. This may bring isolated to
scattered very light showers/sprinkles to the region although
deeper moisture is lacking and forecast soundings look more
supportive of drizzle than anything (some drizzle has been
reported in southern Ontario this afternoon). Nonetheless, will
keep our low chance pops intact at this juncture. Otherwise,
cooler air continues to spread into the region with lows tonight
dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Guidance is in good agreement with current upper level wave
departing east of the CWA during the early morning hours, leaving
behind only a few lingering showers for the first few hours of the
period of Tuesday morning for the southern part of the forecast area
of northern lower Michigan. There will be some lingering clouds as
well, decreasing coverage throughout Tuesday and becoming mostly
clear by the evening hours as high pressure builds over the Great
Lakes region. Tuesday`s daytime highs will struggle to reach 70
degrees with cool northwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies through
the afternoon. Light winds and clearing skies will maximize
radiational cooling, dipping temperatures down to the low to mid 40s
Wednesday morning (maybe even see some upper 30s over the normal
"cooler" spots of interior portions of northern Michigan??). This
will be about 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year.
Wednesday will have mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures
under said high pressure with temperatures reaching into the low to
mid 70s over much of the forecast area with the exception being
portions of northeast lower, who may have a bit of a downsloping
component, possibly warming into the upper 70s.
Clouds will begin to increase Thursday ahead of a surface low
pressure system that`s forecast to develop over the northern Great
Lakes region. It`s a little too early to pin point exact timing and
intensity as of right now, but it looks like there are some good
parameters for thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon with
aforementioned low pressure system and good upper level support.
Chances will increase the longer the thicker clouds hold off during
afternoon heating. Both the GFS and NAM have near 3000 J/Kg of
MUCAPE, but believe they are overdoing the dewpoints of 66F. Believe
dewpoints will be in the upper 50s, which would be closer to the
1500-2000 J/Kg range. 850MB temperatures in the low 50s allow for
some pretty steep lower-level lapse rates, above 8C. Definitely
warrants something to keep an eye on and mentioned in the HWO.
Temperatures Thursday will warm even a bit more from Wednesday, with
lows dipping only into the upper 40s to mid 50s and highs reaching
into the low to mid 70s over eastern upper and in the upper 70s to
low 80s over northern lower.

TJL

Sharpening upper trof will progress thru the northern Great Lakes
Thu night. Showers remain likely for most of the area, and have
added thunder to Thu evening. Precip threat largely ends by Fri
morning, with just a slight chance of a lingering shower or two.

This system will close off as it gradually moves a for most.cross
Quebec thru the weekend. That leaves us in an extended period of nw
flow aloft. Gfs/Ecmwf both have minimal shortwave activity embedded
within that flow, and are thus inclined to keep us dry. Historically
speaking, a lengthy period of featureless nw flow aloft is unlikely;
at some point, a shortwave (perhaps strong enough to kick off some
showers) will reveal itself. However, timing such a feature is not
possible at this time. So will roll with a dry holiday weekend
forecast for now.

Temps will be cool on Friday in the wake of the departing system,
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. After that, slow moderation
is expected thru the 4th.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR cloud cover has filled in across all of northern lower
Michigan and will more or less persist through the balance of the
afternoon. Upstream surface trough will drop down through the
region tonight and bring a bit deeper low level moisture/weak
forcing and may be enough to generate isolated to scattered
showers.

But otherwise, forecast soundings suggest a batch of lower (MVFR)
cigs dropping down through the region tonight as final push of
cooler air arrives. Have trended the terminal forecasts slightly
more pessimistic, showing a period of MVFR cigs although forecast
confidence for those lower cigs is not high. But in any event,
thicker cloud cover continues out of the region on Tuesday and
with a return to full VFR conditions as we go through the day.

Winds: Some NW gustiness today diminishing this evening. Winds
turn more northerly later tonight through Tuesday with some
gustiness again possible Tuesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Gustier NW winds continue into this evening before turning a bit
more northerly later tonight through Tuesday, bringing marginal
small craft advisory conditions. Winds/waves will diminish for later
Tuesday through Wednesday. Weather-wise, some very spotty
showers/sprinkles are possible through tonight. But improving
weather is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...TJL/JZ
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...Adam




000
FXUS63 KGRR 271929
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
329 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will be pushing in from the northwest through day
today and overnight tonight. This will result in increasing cloud
cover this evening and possibly a few showers tonight. Much
cooler air will settle into Lower Michigan behind the front on
Tuesday. A few showers may linger, but limited moisture should
keep most locations dry. Aside from a quick shot of rain late
Thursday into Friday, much of the week is dry with temperatures
near or slightly below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Visible satellite imagery continues to show the gradual southward
progression of the cloud shield over Northern and Central Lower
Michigan. This trend will continue with much of Southwest Lower
Michigan seeing more in the way of low to mid level clouds through
the afternoon and evening hours.

Moisture remains limited and largely confined to the lower levels
with this front. A few showers may pop overnight along the front
as it pushes from northwest to southeast. Some showers may linger
into Tuesday, but are expected to be quick-hitters with only light
precipitation. The bigger story is the cooler air that filters in
through the day Tuesday. High temperatures will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s, which is not too entirely far off from
record min-max benchmarks.

High pressure will result in more dry weather from late Tuesday
through Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate back to near normal
values with highs in the mid-upper 70s Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Main focus of the long term is on the Thursday through Friday time
frame as a cold front will be traversing the Great Lakes region.
Outside of this time frame, the remainder of the long term looks
dry. The GFS and ECMWF are consistent in showing a frontal passage
occurring on Thursday night and feel this will be our best chance at
precipitation in the long term. Even Thursday and Friday look
relatively dry as the front will be off to our north on Thursday and
likely to our south on Friday. Precipitation amounts look fairly
paltry, on the order of a tenth or two of an inch. There is some
instability in the models but it is somewhat minimal, with CAPE values
on the order of 500 J/KG or less via the ECMWF.

Overall the pattern in the long term will feature cooler than normal
temperatures for this time of year and dry weather. Highs
will generally be in the upper 70s to around 80, while normal highs
are typically in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR weather prevails at all TAF sites at 18Z with gusty westerly
winds. VFR weather will continue into this evening and for much of
tonight. The winds will diminish to below 10 knots after 01Z.
Clouds seen on satellite imagery across the northern Great Lakes
will progress south this afternoon and evening and overspread the
area shortly after dark. VFR ceilings are expected through about
10Z with MVFR ceilings pushing into the I-96 TAF sites of KMKG,
KGRR and KLAN around 12Z. These ceilings will then lift through
the course of Tuesday morning. By 18z on Tuesday expecting all
sites to be VFR once again. Winds will increase to 10-15 knots out
of the north after daybreak on Tuesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will result in winds shifting from west to north and
increasing tonight through Tuesday. Northerly flow is expected to
result in high wave action, especially for open waters and coastal
areas over the southern half of Lake Michigan. Dangerous swimming
conditions will become common all along the lakeshore as we go
through the day Tuesday. Waves of 3 to 6 feet will also make for
hazardous boating conditions. As a result, a small craft advisory
will extend southward Tuesday, along with the beach hazard
statement.

Winds and waves will begin to subside late Tuesday into Wednesday,
which may allow us to assess dropping the headlines at that time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Slight uptick in river levels near Scottville and Whitehall from
Sunday`s 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, and they are far from any
flood threat. The next best chance of rain will be late Thursday
into Friday. Amounts do not look substantial enough to even put a
dent in the recent dry weather.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through late
     Tuesday night for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAM
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JAM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 271929
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
329 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will be pushing in from the northwest through day
today and overnight tonight. This will result in increasing cloud
cover this evening and possibly a few showers tonight. Much
cooler air will settle into Lower Michigan behind the front on
Tuesday. A few showers may linger, but limited moisture should
keep most locations dry. Aside from a quick shot of rain late
Thursday into Friday, much of the week is dry with temperatures
near or slightly below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Visible satellite imagery continues to show the gradual southward
progression of the cloud shield over Northern and Central Lower
Michigan. This trend will continue with much of Southwest Lower
Michigan seeing more in the way of low to mid level clouds through
the afternoon and evening hours.

Moisture remains limited and largely confined to the lower levels
with this front. A few showers may pop overnight along the front
as it pushes from northwest to southeast. Some showers may linger
into Tuesday, but are expected to be quick-hitters with only light
precipitation. The bigger story is the cooler air that filters in
through the day Tuesday. High temperatures will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s, which is not too entirely far off from
record min-max benchmarks.

High pressure will result in more dry weather from late Tuesday
through Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate back to near normal
values with highs in the mid-upper 70s Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Main focus of the long term is on the Thursday through Friday time
frame as a cold front will be traversing the Great Lakes region.
Outside of this time frame, the remainder of the long term looks
dry. The GFS and ECMWF are consistent in showing a frontal passage
occurring on Thursday night and feel this will be our best chance at
precipitation in the long term. Even Thursday and Friday look
relatively dry as the front will be off to our north on Thursday and
likely to our south on Friday. Precipitation amounts look fairly
paltry, on the order of a tenth or two of an inch. There is some
instability in the models but it is somewhat minimal, with CAPE values
on the order of 500 J/KG or less via the ECMWF.

Overall the pattern in the long term will feature cooler than normal
temperatures for this time of year and dry weather. Highs
will generally be in the upper 70s to around 80, while normal highs
are typically in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR weather prevails at all TAF sites at 18Z with gusty westerly
winds. VFR weather will continue into this evening and for much of
tonight. The winds will diminish to below 10 knots after 01Z.
Clouds seen on satellite imagery across the northern Great Lakes
will progress south this afternoon and evening and overspread the
area shortly after dark. VFR ceilings are expected through about
10Z with MVFR ceilings pushing into the I-96 TAF sites of KMKG,
KGRR and KLAN around 12Z. These ceilings will then lift through
the course of Tuesday morning. By 18z on Tuesday expecting all
sites to be VFR once again. Winds will increase to 10-15 knots out
of the north after daybreak on Tuesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will result in winds shifting from west to north and
increasing tonight through Tuesday. Northerly flow is expected to
result in high wave action, especially for open waters and coastal
areas over the southern half of Lake Michigan. Dangerous swimming
conditions will become common all along the lakeshore as we go
through the day Tuesday. Waves of 3 to 6 feet will also make for
hazardous boating conditions. As a result, a small craft advisory
will extend southward Tuesday, along with the beach hazard
statement.

Winds and waves will begin to subside late Tuesday into Wednesday,
which may allow us to assess dropping the headlines at that time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Slight uptick in river levels near Scottville and Whitehall from
Sunday`s 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, and they are far from any
flood threat. The next best chance of rain will be late Thursday
into Friday. Amounts do not look substantial enough to even put a
dent in the recent dry weather.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through late
     Tuesday night for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAM
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JAM




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271914
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
314 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Pretty vigorous reinforcing cold front is currently dropping south
along south shore of Lk Superior. Temps are falling into the 40s over
northern Lk Superior. Winds shifting to the N-NNW behind the front
may gust up to 30 mph near Lk Superior this aftn and temps should
fall into the 50s. With the stronger north winds and higher waves,
have expanded the Beach Hazard Statement that was in affect for
Alger county to Marquette county as well. Other issue is convergence
ahead of and along the front has resulted in expansion of showers
vcnty of Marquette to Munising and now drifting southward. Would
plan on these steadier showers to last into early aftn, before
diminishing through rest of the aftn. Lighter showers and sprinkles
are occurring over the rest of the west half of Upper Michigan.

Other change was to increase north winds especially across Bay of
Green Bay and northern Lk Michigan once the front hits there as low-
level temp profile will quickly become unstable as air temps fall
toward 60 degrees while water temps are well into the 60s. Issued a
Small Craft Advisory there from mid aftn into the evening.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over nrn
ontario to the west of James Bay resulting in cyclonic wrly flow
through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended
to north of Lake Superior from low pressure just south of James Bay.

Today, clouds will continue to thicken as 900-700 mb moisture slides
over the area from the north. The combination of a weak shortwave
trough, low level cyclonic flow and upslope into the higher terrain
will help produce scattered light showers over mainly the wrn half
of the CWA. With cloudy skies,850 mb temps dropping to around 4C
behind the cold front this afternoon, and increasing nnw flow
downwind of Lake Superior much cooler conditions will prevail with
temps falling into the lower 50s north. Warmer air will linger over
the south with temps still climbing to around 70.

nw winds producing waves in the 3 to 5 foot range will result in a
high swim risk for Alger county and a moderate risk for marquette
county. A beach hazards statement highlighting the hazard is in
effect through this evening.

Tonight, although there may be some lingering isold -shra over the
south into the evening, the moisture/clouds are expected to
gradually slide to the south of the Upper Michigan with clearing
skies overnight. Radiational cooling should allow temps to drop into
the lower 40s inland west half with temps closer to 50 over the east
and near the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies 00z Wed with troughing
over the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave along the
Manitoba/Ontario border. This shortwave moves into western Ontario
12z Wed and then a trough moves into the upper Great Lakes on Thu.
Nam brings in some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper
moisture on Thu.

Overall, made very few changes to the going forecast overall for
temperatures or weather. Kept in slight chance pops in the western
and central cwa for Wed afternoon as there could be some lake breeze
convergence which could kick off a shower. Best chances for rain
arrive for Thu and went likely pops for the most part.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper
Great Lakes 12z Fri with cooler air over the region. This trough
moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat and this trough moves into
the ern U.S. 12z Mon. The forecast looks dry during this time with a
slow warming trend with temperatures remaining below normal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 149 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Arrival of a cool moist airmass behind a cold front with additional
moisture provided by Lk Superior will keep MVFR cigs this aftn with
slow scattering out of the cigs tonight. Winds will be gusty from
the north at SAW this aftn, but otherwise should stay less than 15
kts at all the sites into Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
A cold front will move through Lake Superior today with west winds
veering northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots...strongest over
the east half. High pressure will build into the region tonight with
diminishing winds. Winds are expected to remain relatively light,
less than 20 knots through the rest of the week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271914
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
314 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Pretty vigorous reinforcing cold front is currently dropping south
along south shore of Lk Superior. Temps are falling into the 40s over
northern Lk Superior. Winds shifting to the N-NNW behind the front
may gust up to 30 mph near Lk Superior this aftn and temps should
fall into the 50s. With the stronger north winds and higher waves,
have expanded the Beach Hazard Statement that was in affect for
Alger county to Marquette county as well. Other issue is convergence
ahead of and along the front has resulted in expansion of showers
vcnty of Marquette to Munising and now drifting southward. Would
plan on these steadier showers to last into early aftn, before
diminishing through rest of the aftn. Lighter showers and sprinkles
are occurring over the rest of the west half of Upper Michigan.

Other change was to increase north winds especially across Bay of
Green Bay and northern Lk Michigan once the front hits there as low-
level temp profile will quickly become unstable as air temps fall
toward 60 degrees while water temps are well into the 60s. Issued a
Small Craft Advisory there from mid aftn into the evening.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over nrn
ontario to the west of James Bay resulting in cyclonic wrly flow
through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended
to north of Lake Superior from low pressure just south of James Bay.

Today, clouds will continue to thicken as 900-700 mb moisture slides
over the area from the north. The combination of a weak shortwave
trough, low level cyclonic flow and upslope into the higher terrain
will help produce scattered light showers over mainly the wrn half
of the CWA. With cloudy skies,850 mb temps dropping to around 4C
behind the cold front this afternoon, and increasing nnw flow
downwind of Lake Superior much cooler conditions will prevail with
temps falling into the lower 50s north. Warmer air will linger over
the south with temps still climbing to around 70.

nw winds producing waves in the 3 to 5 foot range will result in a
high swim risk for Alger county and a moderate risk for marquette
county. A beach hazards statement highlighting the hazard is in
effect through this evening.

Tonight, although there may be some lingering isold -shra over the
south into the evening, the moisture/clouds are expected to
gradually slide to the south of the Upper Michigan with clearing
skies overnight. Radiational cooling should allow temps to drop into
the lower 40s inland west half with temps closer to 50 over the east
and near the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies 00z Wed with troughing
over the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave along the
Manitoba/Ontario border. This shortwave moves into western Ontario
12z Wed and then a trough moves into the upper Great Lakes on Thu.
Nam brings in some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper
moisture on Thu.

Overall, made very few changes to the going forecast overall for
temperatures or weather. Kept in slight chance pops in the western
and central cwa for Wed afternoon as there could be some lake breeze
convergence which could kick off a shower. Best chances for rain
arrive for Thu and went likely pops for the most part.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper
Great Lakes 12z Fri with cooler air over the region. This trough
moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat and this trough moves into
the ern U.S. 12z Mon. The forecast looks dry during this time with a
slow warming trend with temperatures remaining below normal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 149 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Arrival of a cool moist airmass behind a cold front with additional
moisture provided by Lk Superior will keep MVFR cigs this aftn with
slow scattering out of the cigs tonight. Winds will be gusty from
the north at SAW this aftn, but otherwise should stay less than 15
kts at all the sites into Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
A cold front will move through Lake Superior today with west winds
veering northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots...strongest over
the east half. High pressure will build into the region tonight with
diminishing winds. Winds are expected to remain relatively light,
less than 20 knots through the rest of the week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 271823
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
223 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Hydro

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will track southward through the region today
and tonight. A cooler airmass will then filter in from central
Canada. After another warm day today...below normal temperatures
are expected into the middle part of the week. As for rainfall
the cold frontal passage is expected to be dry for most locations.
A few showers could develop Tuesday...but any rainfall should be
brief.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Minor updates to ongoing forecast. Main concern for the next 12
hours is precipitation potential across northern zones. Current
forecast has low chances and that seems reasonable given latest
output from mesoscale models.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main challenge deals with the rainfall potential in the short
term.

We will need to monitor the risk for possible thunderstorm
development today. I noticed some instability showing up in the
models...and the HRRR RUC was developing some showers during the
day...especially around Ludington. Forecast soundings do suggest a
slight warm layer up around 700 mb...so no thunder. I ended up
adding a small chance for showers to the northwest counties this
afternoon. We may need to expand these showers depending on how
the pattern evolves.

Another risk for showers exists for Tuesday. Any should be few and
far between. Soundings show a shallow convective layer under 650
mb. Thus...with a cool airmass in place...any heating should fill
in with clouds and perhaps a few light showers...mostly away from
the lakeshore.

The low level thermal trough arrives for Tuesday evening. With
diminishing winds and clearing skies...it should be a decent
radiational cooling night. Perhaps some locations like Leota in
Clare county may make a run at the 30s for overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The long term will be fairly quiet with only one real opportunity
for pcpn. High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east
Wednesday night and a cold front will approach from the west. A
strong short that is depicted on both the ecmwf and gfs will swing
across northern Lower Michigan Thursday night and/or Friday but not
before pushing the cold front through the cwa Thursday. So, there
looks to be a 36 hour window in which we may see a few showers
and/or storms. Instability is highest Friday and so we`ll include
the mention of thunder then.

The weekend looks dry as high pressure will move over the Great
Lakes. Comfortable temperatures are expected during this time with
lows in the 50s and highs 75-80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR weather prevails at all TAF sites at 18Z with gusty westerly
winds. VFR weather will continue into this evening and for much of
tonight. The winds will diminish to below 10 knots after 01Z.
Clouds seen on satellite imagery across the northern Great Lakes
will progress south this afternoon and evening and overspread the
area shortly after dark. VFR ceilings are expected through about
10Z with MVFR ceilings pushing into the I-96 TAF sites of KMKG,
KGRR and KLAN around 12Z. These ceilings will then lift through
the course of Tuesday morning. By 18z on Tuesday expecting all
sites to be VFR once again. Winds will increase to 10-15 knots out
of the north after daybreak on Tuesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

After coordination with surrounding offices, have hoisted a Small
Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard statement for late tonight into
late Tuesday night. Expect to see waves from 3 to 5 feet develop
in the Pentwater to Manistee area late this evening...spreading
south tomorrow...and ending from north to south Tuesday evening.
Waves from 4 to 6 feet may occur across the South Haven to St.
Joseph area tomorrow afternoon and early evening.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Slight uptick in river levels near Scottville and Whitehall from
Sunday`s 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, and they are far from any
flood threat. The next best chance of rain will be late Thursday
into Friday. Amounts do not look substantial enough to even put a
dent in the recent dry weather.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through late
     Tuesday night for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MWS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MWS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 271823
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
223 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Hydro

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will track southward through the region today
and tonight. A cooler airmass will then filter in from central
Canada. After another warm day today...below normal temperatures
are expected into the middle part of the week. As for rainfall
the cold frontal passage is expected to be dry for most locations.
A few showers could develop Tuesday...but any rainfall should be
brief.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Minor updates to ongoing forecast. Main concern for the next 12
hours is precipitation potential across northern zones. Current
forecast has low chances and that seems reasonable given latest
output from mesoscale models.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main challenge deals with the rainfall potential in the short
term.

We will need to monitor the risk for possible thunderstorm
development today. I noticed some instability showing up in the
models...and the HRRR RUC was developing some showers during the
day...especially around Ludington. Forecast soundings do suggest a
slight warm layer up around 700 mb...so no thunder. I ended up
adding a small chance for showers to the northwest counties this
afternoon. We may need to expand these showers depending on how
the pattern evolves.

Another risk for showers exists for Tuesday. Any should be few and
far between. Soundings show a shallow convective layer under 650
mb. Thus...with a cool airmass in place...any heating should fill
in with clouds and perhaps a few light showers...mostly away from
the lakeshore.

The low level thermal trough arrives for Tuesday evening. With
diminishing winds and clearing skies...it should be a decent
radiational cooling night. Perhaps some locations like Leota in
Clare county may make a run at the 30s for overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The long term will be fairly quiet with only one real opportunity
for pcpn. High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east
Wednesday night and a cold front will approach from the west. A
strong short that is depicted on both the ecmwf and gfs will swing
across northern Lower Michigan Thursday night and/or Friday but not
before pushing the cold front through the cwa Thursday. So, there
looks to be a 36 hour window in which we may see a few showers
and/or storms. Instability is highest Friday and so we`ll include
the mention of thunder then.

The weekend looks dry as high pressure will move over the Great
Lakes. Comfortable temperatures are expected during this time with
lows in the 50s and highs 75-80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR weather prevails at all TAF sites at 18Z with gusty westerly
winds. VFR weather will continue into this evening and for much of
tonight. The winds will diminish to below 10 knots after 01Z.
Clouds seen on satellite imagery across the northern Great Lakes
will progress south this afternoon and evening and overspread the
area shortly after dark. VFR ceilings are expected through about
10Z with MVFR ceilings pushing into the I-96 TAF sites of KMKG,
KGRR and KLAN around 12Z. These ceilings will then lift through
the course of Tuesday morning. By 18z on Tuesday expecting all
sites to be VFR once again. Winds will increase to 10-15 knots out
of the north after daybreak on Tuesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

After coordination with surrounding offices, have hoisted a Small
Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard statement for late tonight into
late Tuesday night. Expect to see waves from 3 to 5 feet develop
in the Pentwater to Manistee area late this evening...spreading
south tomorrow...and ending from north to south Tuesday evening.
Waves from 4 to 6 feet may occur across the South Haven to St.
Joseph area tomorrow afternoon and early evening.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Slight uptick in river levels near Scottville and Whitehall from
Sunday`s 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, and they are far from any
flood threat. The next best chance of rain will be late Thursday
into Friday. Amounts do not look substantial enough to even put a
dent in the recent dry weather.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through late
     Tuesday night for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MWS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MWS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271811
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
211 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

No big updates needed.

Water vapor imagery reveals filling low pressure system over
eastern Ontario/western Quebec this morning. Smaller short wave
noted moving through upper Michigan within the mean upper level
trough. At the surface, secondary surface trough/cold front is in
the process of rotating down through northern Michigan with deeper
wrap around moisture/cloud cover overspreading the region from the
north. There is one small batch of showers/sprinkles along the
backside of the compact wave, dipping through central upper
Michigan.

Rest of today, cloud cover will continue to fill in/overspread
northern Michigan over the next several hours, aided by cooling
aloft/a deepening mixed layer and strong late June sunshine,
although far SE counties may remain a bit less cloudy due to
downsloping flow. Precip-wise, small wave moving through the
north along with some very modest low level instability this
afternoon may be enough to support isolated showers over the
northern half of the of the CWA this afternoon. Have added that to
the going forecast.

Finally, temps today will vary greatly from the middle 60s over
eastern upper to the middle and upper 80s in the far SE counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Troughing continues to slowly
build across the Great Lakes, and looks to continue to do so right
through the first part of this week. While most aggressive height
falls currently are occurring across Ontario, additional spokes of
energy digging on backside of building trough will help kick in
amplification across our area into Tuesday. Passage of what turned
out to be a rather benign cold front yesterday has ushered in a much
drier airmass, as evident by greater than one inch reduction in
overhead pwat values between local 12z and 00z soundings. Despite
this, still enough moisture interacting with passing vort lobes to
kick off a few light showers to our north and northwest. This trend
looks to continue today and tonight, with southward building trough
suggesting we may get in on a touch of very light rain at times
through the short term period.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and temperature trends
through tonight. Addressing that light shower concern.

Details: Most certain part of this forecast is that it will be a
cooler regime than recently experienced. Caa only looks to
continue and strengthen today and tonight with passage of
secondary cold front , forcing h8 temperatures to drop into the
mid and upper single digits (pretty impressive for the end of
June) by Tuesday morning. Still some "residue" warmth today,
especially in favored west/northwest downslope areas of northeast
lower Michigan. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a good 10 to 15
degrees cooler than those experienced yesterday, with highs
likely not getting much out of the 60s for areas north of the big
bridge. Maintenance of light winds and plenty of clouds tonight
will prevent readings from getting too far out of hand. Still,
expected temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s
are a few degrees below what is considered normal for the end of
June.

Addressing light shower potential is a much lower confidence
endeavor. Think current round of showers across Lake Superior and
parts of western upper Michigan will largely miss our area early
this morning. Not so sure about what happens later this morning
and afternoon as dual upstream waves drop southeast out of Canada.
Band of low and mid level clouds already associated with these,
which should slowly drop into our area today and this evening.
Some scattered light showers/sprinkles falling out of this cloud
deck at times. Can`t completely rule out the same for area later
today, although soundings show maintenance of elevated capping to
prevent any signficant diurnal contribution. With that said, that
cap is not particularly robust, and it wouldn`t take too much to
nudge a parcel past it. Any shower activity looks to remain very
light and scattered. Will go ahead and introduce some isolated
shower wording, but expecting what ever does fall will likely no
more than wet the pavement.

Better chance for light showers arrives this evening as core of main
height falls/troughing arrives. Thinking band of scattered
showers/sprinkles will drop south through the area in response. Once
again, not a big deal at all, will only very light rain totals
expected. A mostly cloudy evening does give way to clearing
pushing in from the north very late night/early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

(6/28)Tuesday...The 500 mb shortwave trough is moving out of the
forecast area, by 12z, with a really low chance for anything going
one in the morning (less than 20%). The sfc high is building into
the region during the day, and the 500 mb heights are building, so
will expect that the clouds will decrease during the day. The
evening should be mostly clear, as the sfc high has firm control
over the region.

(6/29)Wednesday...The bulk of the day time looks dry, as the high
begins to lose control over the Upper Great Lakes, and the next cold
front begins to move into the region. The evening looks dry on both
models, but it`s after 06z that the difference occurs. The GFS has a
flatter trough, with pieces of energy spinning around it, pushing
into the northern Michigan. The ECMWF has a much sharper 500 mb
trough that lags the rain back in W Upper until 12z. So have the
pops barely getting into E Upper by 12z.

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...Models are consistent with the
500 mb trough that rotates through the Upper Great Lakes Thursday
and Friday with the rain ending by friday afternoon as the sfc High
builds into the region. The 500 mb low north of the region moves
east and the 500 mb ridge begins to build Saturday, and continues
into Sunday for a warm dry weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR cloud cover has filled in across all of northern lower
Michigan and will more or less persist through the balance of the
afternoon. Upstream surface trough will drop down through the
region tonight and bring a bit deeper low level moisture/weak
forcing and may be enough to generate isolated to scattered
showers.

But otherwise, forecast soundings suggest a batch of lower (MVFR)
cigs dropping down through the region tonight as final push of
cooler air arrives. Have trended the terminal forecasts slightly
more pessimistic, showing a period of MVFR cigs although forecast
confidence for those lower cigs is not high. But in any event,
thicker cloud cover continues out of the region on Tuesday and
with a return to full VFR conditions as we go through the day.

Winds: Some NW gustiness today diminishing this evening. Winds
turn more northerly later tonight through Tuesday with some
gustiness again possible Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Increasingly gusty west and eventually northwest winds today into
this evening, with winds coming around more northerly overnight.
Rather cool airmass for the season will result in somewhat more
vigorous over-water mixing, which should result in some low end
sca producing gusts later today into tonight for many of our
nearshore waters. Marginally gusty winds look to continue into
Tuesday, with some extension to headlines possibly needed.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271811
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
211 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

No big updates needed.

Water vapor imagery reveals filling low pressure system over
eastern Ontario/western Quebec this morning. Smaller short wave
noted moving through upper Michigan within the mean upper level
trough. At the surface, secondary surface trough/cold front is in
the process of rotating down through northern Michigan with deeper
wrap around moisture/cloud cover overspreading the region from the
north. There is one small batch of showers/sprinkles along the
backside of the compact wave, dipping through central upper
Michigan.

Rest of today, cloud cover will continue to fill in/overspread
northern Michigan over the next several hours, aided by cooling
aloft/a deepening mixed layer and strong late June sunshine,
although far SE counties may remain a bit less cloudy due to
downsloping flow. Precip-wise, small wave moving through the
north along with some very modest low level instability this
afternoon may be enough to support isolated showers over the
northern half of the of the CWA this afternoon. Have added that to
the going forecast.

Finally, temps today will vary greatly from the middle 60s over
eastern upper to the middle and upper 80s in the far SE counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Troughing continues to slowly
build across the Great Lakes, and looks to continue to do so right
through the first part of this week. While most aggressive height
falls currently are occurring across Ontario, additional spokes of
energy digging on backside of building trough will help kick in
amplification across our area into Tuesday. Passage of what turned
out to be a rather benign cold front yesterday has ushered in a much
drier airmass, as evident by greater than one inch reduction in
overhead pwat values between local 12z and 00z soundings. Despite
this, still enough moisture interacting with passing vort lobes to
kick off a few light showers to our north and northwest. This trend
looks to continue today and tonight, with southward building trough
suggesting we may get in on a touch of very light rain at times
through the short term period.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and temperature trends
through tonight. Addressing that light shower concern.

Details: Most certain part of this forecast is that it will be a
cooler regime than recently experienced. Caa only looks to
continue and strengthen today and tonight with passage of
secondary cold front , forcing h8 temperatures to drop into the
mid and upper single digits (pretty impressive for the end of
June) by Tuesday morning. Still some "residue" warmth today,
especially in favored west/northwest downslope areas of northeast
lower Michigan. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a good 10 to 15
degrees cooler than those experienced yesterday, with highs
likely not getting much out of the 60s for areas north of the big
bridge. Maintenance of light winds and plenty of clouds tonight
will prevent readings from getting too far out of hand. Still,
expected temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s
are a few degrees below what is considered normal for the end of
June.

Addressing light shower potential is a much lower confidence
endeavor. Think current round of showers across Lake Superior and
parts of western upper Michigan will largely miss our area early
this morning. Not so sure about what happens later this morning
and afternoon as dual upstream waves drop southeast out of Canada.
Band of low and mid level clouds already associated with these,
which should slowly drop into our area today and this evening.
Some scattered light showers/sprinkles falling out of this cloud
deck at times. Can`t completely rule out the same for area later
today, although soundings show maintenance of elevated capping to
prevent any signficant diurnal contribution. With that said, that
cap is not particularly robust, and it wouldn`t take too much to
nudge a parcel past it. Any shower activity looks to remain very
light and scattered. Will go ahead and introduce some isolated
shower wording, but expecting what ever does fall will likely no
more than wet the pavement.

Better chance for light showers arrives this evening as core of main
height falls/troughing arrives. Thinking band of scattered
showers/sprinkles will drop south through the area in response. Once
again, not a big deal at all, will only very light rain totals
expected. A mostly cloudy evening does give way to clearing
pushing in from the north very late night/early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

(6/28)Tuesday...The 500 mb shortwave trough is moving out of the
forecast area, by 12z, with a really low chance for anything going
one in the morning (less than 20%). The sfc high is building into
the region during the day, and the 500 mb heights are building, so
will expect that the clouds will decrease during the day. The
evening should be mostly clear, as the sfc high has firm control
over the region.

(6/29)Wednesday...The bulk of the day time looks dry, as the high
begins to lose control over the Upper Great Lakes, and the next cold
front begins to move into the region. The evening looks dry on both
models, but it`s after 06z that the difference occurs. The GFS has a
flatter trough, with pieces of energy spinning around it, pushing
into the northern Michigan. The ECMWF has a much sharper 500 mb
trough that lags the rain back in W Upper until 12z. So have the
pops barely getting into E Upper by 12z.

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...Models are consistent with the
500 mb trough that rotates through the Upper Great Lakes Thursday
and Friday with the rain ending by friday afternoon as the sfc High
builds into the region. The 500 mb low north of the region moves
east and the 500 mb ridge begins to build Saturday, and continues
into Sunday for a warm dry weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR cloud cover has filled in across all of northern lower
Michigan and will more or less persist through the balance of the
afternoon. Upstream surface trough will drop down through the
region tonight and bring a bit deeper low level moisture/weak
forcing and may be enough to generate isolated to scattered
showers.

But otherwise, forecast soundings suggest a batch of lower (MVFR)
cigs dropping down through the region tonight as final push of
cooler air arrives. Have trended the terminal forecasts slightly
more pessimistic, showing a period of MVFR cigs although forecast
confidence for those lower cigs is not high. But in any event,
thicker cloud cover continues out of the region on Tuesday and
with a return to full VFR conditions as we go through the day.

Winds: Some NW gustiness today diminishing this evening. Winds
turn more northerly later tonight through Tuesday with some
gustiness again possible Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Increasingly gusty west and eventually northwest winds today into
this evening, with winds coming around more northerly overnight.
Rather cool airmass for the season will result in somewhat more
vigorous over-water mixing, which should result in some low end
sca producing gusts later today into tonight for many of our
nearshore waters. Marginally gusty winds look to continue into
Tuesday, with some extension to headlines possibly needed.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 271806
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
206 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will track southward through the region today
and tonight. A cooler airmass will then filter in from central
Canada. After another warm day today...below normal temperatures
are expected into the middle part of the week. As for rainfall
the cold frontal passage is expected to be dry for most locations.
A few showers could develop Tuesday...but any rainfall should be
brief.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Minor updates to ongoing forecast. Main concern for the next 12
hours is precipitation potential across northern zones. Current
forecast has low chances and that seems reasonable given latest
output from mesoscale models.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main challenge deals with the rainfall potential in the short
term.

We will need to monitor the risk for possible thunderstorm
development today. I noticed some instability showing up in the
models...and the HRRR RUC was developing some showers during the
day...especially around Ludington. Forecast soundings do suggest a
slight warm layer up around 700 mb...so no thunder. I ended up
adding a small chance for showers to the northwest counties this
afternoon. We may need to expand these showers depending on how
the pattern evolves.

Another risk for showers exists for Tuesday. Any should be few and
far between. Soundings show a shallow convective layer under 650
mb. Thus...with a cool airmass in place...any heating should fill
in with clouds and perhaps a few light showers...mostly away from
the lakeshore.

The low level thermal trough arrives for Tuesday evening. With
diminishing winds and clearing skies...it should be a decent
radiational cooling night. Perhaps some locations like Leota in
Clare county may make a run at the 30s for overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The long term will be fairly quiet with only one real opportunity
for pcpn. High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east
Wednesday night and a cold front will approach from the west. A
strong short that is depicted on both the ecmwf and gfs will swing
across northern Lower Michigan Thursday night and/or Friday but not
before pushing the cold front through the cwa Thursday. So, there
looks to be a 36 hour window in which we may see a few showers
and/or storms. Instability is highest Friday and so we`ll include
the mention of thunder then.

The weekend looks dry as high pressure will move over the Great
Lakes. Comfortable temperatures are expected during this time with
lows in the 50s and highs 75-80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR weather prevails at all TAF sites at 18Z with gusty westerly
winds. VFR weather will continue into this evening and for much of
tonight. The winds will diminish to below 10 knots after 01Z.
Clouds seen on satellite imagery across the northern Great Lakes
will progress south this afternoon and evening and overspread the
area shortly after dark. VFR ceilings are expected through about
10Z with MVFR ceilings pushing into the I-96 TAF sites of KMKG,
KGRR and KLAN around 12Z. These ceilings will then lift through
the course of Tuesday morning. By 18z on Tuesday expecting all
sites to be VFR once again. Winds will increase to 10-15 knots out
of the north after daybreak on Tuesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

After coordination with surrounding offices, have hoisted a Small
Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard statement for late tonight into
late Tuesday night. Expect to see waves from 3 to 5 feet develop
in the Pentwater to Manistee area late this evening...spreading
south tomorrow...and ending from north to south Tuesday evening.
Waves from 4 to 6 feet may occur across the South Haven to St.
Joseph area tomorrow afternoon and early evening.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through late
     Tuesday night for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MWS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MWS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 271806
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
206 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will track southward through the region today
and tonight. A cooler airmass will then filter in from central
Canada. After another warm day today...below normal temperatures
are expected into the middle part of the week. As for rainfall
the cold frontal passage is expected to be dry for most locations.
A few showers could develop Tuesday...but any rainfall should be
brief.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Minor updates to ongoing forecast. Main concern for the next 12
hours is precipitation potential across northern zones. Current
forecast has low chances and that seems reasonable given latest
output from mesoscale models.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main challenge deals with the rainfall potential in the short
term.

We will need to monitor the risk for possible thunderstorm
development today. I noticed some instability showing up in the
models...and the HRRR RUC was developing some showers during the
day...especially around Ludington. Forecast soundings do suggest a
slight warm layer up around 700 mb...so no thunder. I ended up
adding a small chance for showers to the northwest counties this
afternoon. We may need to expand these showers depending on how
the pattern evolves.

Another risk for showers exists for Tuesday. Any should be few and
far between. Soundings show a shallow convective layer under 650
mb. Thus...with a cool airmass in place...any heating should fill
in with clouds and perhaps a few light showers...mostly away from
the lakeshore.

The low level thermal trough arrives for Tuesday evening. With
diminishing winds and clearing skies...it should be a decent
radiational cooling night. Perhaps some locations like Leota in
Clare county may make a run at the 30s for overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The long term will be fairly quiet with only one real opportunity
for pcpn. High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east
Wednesday night and a cold front will approach from the west. A
strong short that is depicted on both the ecmwf and gfs will swing
across northern Lower Michigan Thursday night and/or Friday but not
before pushing the cold front through the cwa Thursday. So, there
looks to be a 36 hour window in which we may see a few showers
and/or storms. Instability is highest Friday and so we`ll include
the mention of thunder then.

The weekend looks dry as high pressure will move over the Great
Lakes. Comfortable temperatures are expected during this time with
lows in the 50s and highs 75-80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR weather prevails at all TAF sites at 18Z with gusty westerly
winds. VFR weather will continue into this evening and for much of
tonight. The winds will diminish to below 10 knots after 01Z.
Clouds seen on satellite imagery across the northern Great Lakes
will progress south this afternoon and evening and overspread the
area shortly after dark. VFR ceilings are expected through about
10Z with MVFR ceilings pushing into the I-96 TAF sites of KMKG,
KGRR and KLAN around 12Z. These ceilings will then lift through
the course of Tuesday morning. By 18z on Tuesday expecting all
sites to be VFR once again. Winds will increase to 10-15 knots out
of the north after daybreak on Tuesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

After coordination with surrounding offices, have hoisted a Small
Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard statement for late tonight into
late Tuesday night. Expect to see waves from 3 to 5 feet develop
in the Pentwater to Manistee area late this evening...spreading
south tomorrow...and ending from north to south Tuesday evening.
Waves from 4 to 6 feet may occur across the South Haven to St.
Joseph area tomorrow afternoon and early evening.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through late
     Tuesday night for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MWS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MWS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271752
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
152 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Pretty vigorous reinforcing cold front is currently dropping south
along south shore of Lk Superior. Temps are falling into the 40s over
northern Lk Superior. Winds shifting to the N-NNW behind the front
may gust up to 30 mph near Lk Superior this aftn and temps should
fall into the 50s. With the stronger north winds and higher waves,
have expanded the Beach Hazard Statement that was in affect for
Alger county to Marquette county as well. Other issue is convergence
ahead of and along the front has resulted in expansion of showers
vcnty of Marquette to Munising and now drifting southward. Would
plan on these steadier showers to last into early aftn, before
diminishing through rest of the aftn. Lighter showers and sprinkles
are occurring over the rest of the west half of Upper Michigan.

Other change was to increase north winds especially across Bay of
Green Bay and northern Lk Michigan once the front hits there as low-
level temp profile will quickly become unstable as air temps fall
toward 60 degrees while water temps are well into the 60s. Issued a
Small Craft Advisory there from mid aftn into the evening.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over nrn
ontario to the west of James Bay resulting in cyclonic wrly flow
through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended
to north of Lake Superior from low pressure just south of James Bay.

Today, clouds will continue to thicken as 900-700 mb moisture slides
over the area from the north. The combination of a weak shortwave
trough, low level cyclonic flow and upslope into the higher terrain
will help produce scattered light showers over mainly the wrn half
of the CWA. With cloudy skies,850 mb temps dropping to around 4C
behind the cold front this afternoon, and increasing nnw flow
downwind of Lake Superior much cooler conditions will prevail with
temps falling into the lower 50s north. Warmer air will linger over
the south with temps still climbing to around 70.

nw winds producing waves in the 3 to 5 foot range will result in a
high swim risk for Alger county and a moderate risk for marquette
county. A beach hazards statement highlighting the hazard is in
effect through this evening.

Tonight, although there may be some lingering isold -shra over the
south into the evening, the moisture/clouds are expected to
gradually slide to the south of the Upper Michigan with clearing
skies overnight. Radiational cooling should allow temps to drop into
the lower 40s inland west half with temps closer to 50 over the east
and near the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions and a few chances for rain over the next
week...particularly on Thursday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A very dry air mass for summertime (pwats
around 0.4 inches) associated with ridging will settle over the area
during this time. Though winds will be light, some mixing into a
shallow inversion should allow min RH values to fall into the at
least the low 30s inland. This setup will allow for great
radiational cooling Tuesday night. Widespread 40s are expected, with
some upper 30s possible for the typically coldest interior locations.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: A series ripples in a deeper trough
developing over the east half of Canada combined with some low-level
moisture return behind the ridge may support some very spotty
showers for the interior west on Wednesday, and most of the CWA
Wednesday night. Did trend on the drier side as high cloud bases
Wednesday and the lack of any deep forcing to produce showers heavy
enough to overcome most of the dry air Wednesday night should limit
coverage.

Thursday and Thursday night: The main axis of the building trough
will swing across the CWA during this time. While moisture
availability will still be somewhat of a concern, numerous showers
and some thunderstorms are still expected. Though deep layer shear
will be supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be
too much for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Sunday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible for mainly the east. The arrival of drier low-level air
should prevent precip chances from continuing into the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 149 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Arrival of a cool moist airmass behind a cold front with additional
moisture provided by Lk Superior will keep MVFR cigs this aftn with
slow scattering out of the cigs tonight. Winds will be gusty from
the north at SAW this aftn, but otherwise should stay less than 15
kts at all the sites into Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
A cold front will move through Lake Superior today with west winds
veering northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots...strongest over
the east half. High pressure will build into the region tonight with
diminishing winds. Winds are expected to remain relatively light,
less than 20 knots through the rest of the week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271752
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
152 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Pretty vigorous reinforcing cold front is currently dropping south
along south shore of Lk Superior. Temps are falling into the 40s over
northern Lk Superior. Winds shifting to the N-NNW behind the front
may gust up to 30 mph near Lk Superior this aftn and temps should
fall into the 50s. With the stronger north winds and higher waves,
have expanded the Beach Hazard Statement that was in affect for
Alger county to Marquette county as well. Other issue is convergence
ahead of and along the front has resulted in expansion of showers
vcnty of Marquette to Munising and now drifting southward. Would
plan on these steadier showers to last into early aftn, before
diminishing through rest of the aftn. Lighter showers and sprinkles
are occurring over the rest of the west half of Upper Michigan.

Other change was to increase north winds especially across Bay of
Green Bay and northern Lk Michigan once the front hits there as low-
level temp profile will quickly become unstable as air temps fall
toward 60 degrees while water temps are well into the 60s. Issued a
Small Craft Advisory there from mid aftn into the evening.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over nrn
ontario to the west of James Bay resulting in cyclonic wrly flow
through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended
to north of Lake Superior from low pressure just south of James Bay.

Today, clouds will continue to thicken as 900-700 mb moisture slides
over the area from the north. The combination of a weak shortwave
trough, low level cyclonic flow and upslope into the higher terrain
will help produce scattered light showers over mainly the wrn half
of the CWA. With cloudy skies,850 mb temps dropping to around 4C
behind the cold front this afternoon, and increasing nnw flow
downwind of Lake Superior much cooler conditions will prevail with
temps falling into the lower 50s north. Warmer air will linger over
the south with temps still climbing to around 70.

nw winds producing waves in the 3 to 5 foot range will result in a
high swim risk for Alger county and a moderate risk for marquette
county. A beach hazards statement highlighting the hazard is in
effect through this evening.

Tonight, although there may be some lingering isold -shra over the
south into the evening, the moisture/clouds are expected to
gradually slide to the south of the Upper Michigan with clearing
skies overnight. Radiational cooling should allow temps to drop into
the lower 40s inland west half with temps closer to 50 over the east
and near the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions and a few chances for rain over the next
week...particularly on Thursday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A very dry air mass for summertime (pwats
around 0.4 inches) associated with ridging will settle over the area
during this time. Though winds will be light, some mixing into a
shallow inversion should allow min RH values to fall into the at
least the low 30s inland. This setup will allow for great
radiational cooling Tuesday night. Widespread 40s are expected, with
some upper 30s possible for the typically coldest interior locations.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: A series ripples in a deeper trough
developing over the east half of Canada combined with some low-level
moisture return behind the ridge may support some very spotty
showers for the interior west on Wednesday, and most of the CWA
Wednesday night. Did trend on the drier side as high cloud bases
Wednesday and the lack of any deep forcing to produce showers heavy
enough to overcome most of the dry air Wednesday night should limit
coverage.

Thursday and Thursday night: The main axis of the building trough
will swing across the CWA during this time. While moisture
availability will still be somewhat of a concern, numerous showers
and some thunderstorms are still expected. Though deep layer shear
will be supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be
too much for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Sunday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible for mainly the east. The arrival of drier low-level air
should prevent precip chances from continuing into the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 149 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Arrival of a cool moist airmass behind a cold front with additional
moisture provided by Lk Superior will keep MVFR cigs this aftn with
slow scattering out of the cigs tonight. Winds will be gusty from
the north at SAW this aftn, but otherwise should stay less than 15
kts at all the sites into Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
A cold front will move through Lake Superior today with west winds
veering northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots...strongest over
the east half. High pressure will build into the region tonight with
diminishing winds. Winds are expected to remain relatively light,
less than 20 knots through the rest of the week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271654
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1254 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016


.AVIATION...
Brisk weserly winds will continue this afternoon and evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. Atmosphere very dry allowing
strong heating and mixing upwards nr 700mb by this evening which
will produce wind gusts around 25 knots with an occassional 30kt
possible. Expect some few to sct cu around 6-7k ft late afternoon
as peak mixing height is reached. Wind gust will subside around
sunset then winds will decrease significantly around frontal
passage which is expected in the northern taf sites around 00z and
southern sites 03z. Post low level moisture and weak instability
will produce broken cloud deck in the 2-4k ft range north where
moisture will be a bit higher and deeper to about 3-4k ft southern
tafs. Winds will increase a bit with mixing after sunrise Tuesday while
ceiling will raise a little with diurnal heating.

For DTW... Westerly wind gusting to about 25 knots during the
afternoon will bring crosswind threshold into consideration. Local
guidance suggests southwest traffic operations should be maintained.
Wind will then diminish tonight as lower clouds arrive with the next
cold front. Any ceiling is expected to be VFR but less than 5000 ft.
The best chance of MVFR will be late tonight through Tuesday
afternoon.  Instability from cold air advection and surface heating
combine with a mid level trough Tuesday afternoon could produce a
sprinkle or light shower but probability at this time not high enough
to mention in taf.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Low for exceeding cross wind threshold in westerly flow today.

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

DISCUSSION...

Upper trough will continue to move across Ontario early today, while
a surface trough and cold front associated with this system drop
through the area during the late afternoon and evening. Current
water vapor imagery shows much drier air starting to arrive in the
mid levels. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected to
prevail today as good mixing entrains much of this dry air into the
lower part of the atmosphere, which will also allow for falling
surface dewpoints today (into the 50s). This should provide a much
more comfortable day despite temperatures not cooling off too much
from yesterday. Temperatures should rise into the mid 80s (north) to
low 90s (south) this afternoon, with little change expected in
thermal fields by 18Z from yesterday (slight cooling at H850).
Better mixing and more sun should help offset any cooling in the
column. Arriving cold front will start to cool temperatures across
the Saginaw Valley and northern Thumb by early evening however.
Aside from the continued warm conditions, winds will be the other
story today. A stronger core of winds aloft resulting from
combination of shortwave energy dropping across northern Michigan
and another wave upstream will result in breezy conditions today as
we mix into some of these higher speeds aloft. GFS/NAM soundings
support fairly good sustained speeds around 20 mph during peak
heating, with gusts around 30 mph. Strong winds combined with warm
temperatures and falling RH (potentially less than 30% from M-59
south) causes concern for fire weather, especially given dry
conditions/fuels.

Cooler air and an increase in low-level moisture will gradually slip
in behind the front very late today and tonight. This will provide
only a low chance of showers over the northern Thumb and Saginaw
Valley as the more compact but strong upper wave over MT/ND dives
into Lower Michigan and is enhanced by some left exit region
forcing. Additional energy dropping out of the exiting Canadian
trough will drop into Michigan Tuesday, combining with low-level
moisture behind the front to provide a low chance for a showers over
the remainder of Southeast Michigan. Activity will most likely be
isolated, and only light rain showers with an inversion near 600mb
limiting convective depths. Max temperatures on Tuesday will be much
cooler with a drop of about 10C at H850. This should keep highs
limited to the 70s, and even upper 60s over the thumb.

High pressure spreading into the area Wednesday will bring a return
to sunny skies and quiet weather, but temperatures will be slow to
moderate. Only chance for rain in the extended forecast still looks
like Thursday night into Friday as an upper trough pivots down
across the central Great Lakes, pushing a cold front across the
area. Uncertainty remains high however as models continue to differ
with the amplitude of this system, and the cold front continues to
look fairly weak.

MARINE...

Low pressure moving from James Bay into northern Quebec will
maintain moderate westerly wind over the Great Lakes today and then
pull a two stage cold front over the region tonight into early
Tuesday. Westerly gusts near 25 knots will be common over all marine
areas by this afternoon except for the open waters of Lake Huron
where more stable conditions will exist. The first front will then
bring a northwest wind shift during the evening followed by north to
northeast direction behind the second front overnight. The intrusion
of colder air and long northerly fetch over Lake Huron will allow
waves to build in excess of 4 feet over the southern basin by
Tuesday morning. Small craft advisories are in effect through today
for the gusty wind and another round of headlines will be issued
later for the higher waves Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRC
DISCUSSION...HLO
MARINE.......BT


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271545 AAA
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1145 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Pretty vigorous reinforcing cold front is currently dropping south
along south shore of Lk Superior. Temps are falling into the 40s over
northern Lk Superior. Winds shifting to the N-NNW behind the front
may gust up to 30 mph near Lk Superior this aftn and temps should
fall into the 50s. With the stronger north winds and higher waves,
have expanded the Beach Hazard Statement that was in affect for
Alger county to Marquette county as well. Other issue is convergence
ahead of and along the front has resulted in expansion of showers
vcnty of Marquette to Munising and now drifting southward. Would
plan on these steadier showers to last into early aftn, before
diminishing through rest of the aftn. Lighter showers and sprinkles
are occurring over the rest of the west half of Upper Michigan.

Other change was to increase north winds especially across Bay of
Green Bay and northern Lk Michigan once the front hits there as low-
level temp profile will quickly become unstable as air temps fall
toward 60 degrees while water temps are well into the 60s. Issued a
Small Craft Advisory there from mid aftn into the evening.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over nrn
ontario to the west of James Bay resulting in cyclonic wrly flow
through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended
to north of Lake Superior from low pressure just south of James Bay.

Today, clouds will continue to thicken as 900-700 mb moisture slides
over the area from the north. The combination of a weak shortwave
trough, low level cyclonic flow and upslope into the higher terrain
will help produce scattered light showers over mainly the wrn half
of the CWA. With cloudy skies,850 mb temps dropping to around 4C
behind the cold front this afternoon, and increasing nnw flow
downwind of Lake Superior much cooler conditions will prevail with
temps falling into the lower 50s north. Warmer air will linger over
the south with temps still climbing to around 70.

nw winds producing waves in the 3 to 5 foot range will result in a
high swim risk for Alger county and a moderate risk for marquette
county. A beach hazards statement highlighting the hazard is in
effect through this evening.

Tonight, although there may be some lingering isold -shra over the
south into the evening, the moisture/clouds are expected to
gradually slide to the south of the Upper Michigan with clearing
skies overnight. Radiational cooling should allow temps to drop into
the lower 40s inland west half with temps closer to 50 over the east
and near the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions and a few chances for rain over the next
week...particularly on Thursday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A very dry air mass for summertime (pwats
around 0.4 inches) associated with ridging will settle over the area
during this time. Though winds will be light, some mixing into a
shallow inversion should allow min RH values to fall into the at
least the low 30s inland. This setup will allow for great
radiational cooling Tuesday night. Widespread 40s are expected, with
some upper 30s possible for the typically coldest interior locations.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: A series ripples in a deeper trough
developing over the east half of Canada combined with some low-level
moisture return behind the ridge may support some very spotty
showers for the interior west on Wednesday, and most of the CWA
Wednesday night. Did trend on the drier side as high cloud bases
Wednesday and the lack of any deep forcing to produce showers heavy
enough to overcome most of the dry air Wednesday night should limit
coverage.

Thursday and Thursday night: The main axis of the building trough
will swing across the CWA during this time. While moisture
availability will still be somewhat of a concern, numerous showers
and some thunderstorms are still expected. Though deep layer shear
will be supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be
too much for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Sunday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible for mainly the east. The arrival of drier low-level air
should prevent precip chances from continuing into the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 729 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Cooler and more moist air moving into the area has brought mvfr cigs
to IWD/CMX and is also expected to drop cigs at SAW to MVFR this
morning. Although there could also be some showers at these sites as
well, no significant vsby restriction is likely. As the veering flow
taps drier air late in the day, some improvement will occur, with
conditions rebounding into the VFR range. SAW will see the more
persistent lower cigs with upslope N wind farther from the dry air
source. Clearing is then expected overnight.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
A cold front will move through Lake Superior today with west winds
veering northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots...strongest over
the east half. High pressure will build into the region tonight with
diminishing winds. Winds are expected to remain relatively light,
less than 20 knots through the rest of the week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271542
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1142 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

No big updates needed.

Water vapor imagery reveals filling low pressure system over
eastern Ontario/western Quebec this morning. Smaller short wave
noted moving through upper Michigan within the mean upper level
trough. At the surface, secondary surface trough/cold front is in
the process of rotating down through northern Michigan with deeper
wrap around moisture/cloud cover overspreading the region from the
north. There is one small batch of showers/sprinkles along the
backside of the compact wave, dipping through central upper
Michigan.

Rest of today, cloud cover will continue to fill in/overspread
northern Michigan over the next several hours, aided by cooling
aloft/a deepening mixed layer and strong late June sunshine,
although far SE counties may remain a bit less cloudy due to
downsloping flow. Precip-wise, small wave moving through the
north along with some very modest low level instability this
afternoon may be enough to support isolated showers over the
northern half of the of the CWA this afternoon. Have added that to
the going forecast.

Finally, temps today will vary greatly from the middle 60s over
eastern upper to the middle and upper 80s in the far SE counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Troughing continues to slowly
build across the Great Lakes, and looks to continue to do so right
through the first part of this week. While most aggressive height
falls currently are occurring across Ontario, additional spokes of
energy digging on backside of building trough will help kick in
amplification across our area into Tuesday. Passage of what turned
out to be a rather benign cold front yesterday has ushered in a much
drier airmass, as evident by greater than one inch reduction in
overhead pwat values between local 12z and 00z soundings. Despite
this, still enough moisture interacting with passing vort lobes to
kick off a few light showers to our north and northwest. This trend
looks to continue today and tonight, with southward building trough
suggesting we may get in on a touch of very light rain at times
through the short term period.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and temperature trends
through tonight. Addressing that light shower concern.

Details: Most certain part of this forecast is that it will be a
cooler regime than recently experienced. Caa only looks to
continue and strengthen today and tonight with passage of
secondary cold front , forcing h8 temperatures to drop into the
mid and upper single digits (pretty impressive for the end of
June) by Tuesday morning. Still some "residue" warmth today,
especially in favored west/northwest downslope areas of northeast
lower Michigan. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a good 10 to 15
degrees cooler than those experienced yesterday, with highs
likely not getting much out of the 60s for areas north of the big
bridge. Maintenance of light winds and plenty of clouds tonight
will prevent readings from getting too far out of hand. Still,
expected temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s
are a few degrees below what is considered normal for the end of
June.

Addressing light shower potential is a much lower confidence
endeavor. Think current round of showers across Lake Superior and
parts of western upper Michigan will largely miss our area early
this morning. Not so sure about what happens later this morning
and afternoon as dual upstream waves drop southeast out of Canada.
Band of low and mid level clouds already associated with these,
which should slowly drop into our area today and this evening.
Some scattered light showers/sprinkles falling out of this cloud
deck at times. Can`t completely rule out the same for area later
today, although soundings show maintenance of elevated capping to
prevent any signficant diurnal contribution. With that said, that
cap is not particularly robust, and it wouldn`t take too much to
nudge a parcel past it. Any shower activity looks to remain very
light and scattered. Will go ahead and introduce some isolated
shower wording, but expecting what ever does fall will likely no
more than wet the pavement.

Better chance for light showers arrives this evening as core of main
height falls/troughing arrives. Thinking band of scattered
showers/sprinkles will drop south through the area in response. Once
again, not a big deal at all, will only very light rain totals
expected. A mostly cloudy evening does give way to clearing
pushing in from the north very late night/early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

(6/28)Tuesday...The 500 mb shortwave trough is moving out of the
forecast area, by 12z, with a really low chance for anything going
one in the morning (less than 20%). The sfc high is building into
the region during the day, and the 500 mb heights are building, so
will expect that the clouds will decrease during the day. The
evening should be mostly clear, as the sfc high has firm control
over the region.

(6/29)Wednesday...The bulk of the day time looks dry, as the high
begins to lose control over the Upper Great Lakes, and the next cold
front begins to move into the region. The evening looks dry on both
models, but it`s after 06z that the difference occurs. The GFS has a
flatter trough, with pieces of energy spinning around it, pushing
into the northern Michigan. The ECMWF has a much sharper 500 mb
trough that lags the rain back in W Upper until 12z. So have the
pops barely getting into E Upper by 12z.

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...Models are consistent with the
500 mb trough that rotates through the Upper Great Lakes Thursday
and Friday with the rain ending by friday afternoon as the sfc High
builds into the region. The 500 mb low north of the region moves
east and the 500 mb ridge begins to build on
cooling aloft combined with that strong June sunSaturday, and continues
into Sunday for a warm dry weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Increasing stcu/cu today as mid level waves and diurnal
contributions work in tandem. Those same diurnal contributions
should keep the lower levels fairly mixed, resulting in what
should primarily be vfr cig heights. Cooling conditions tonight
and passing stronger mid level wave/attendant surface trough looks
to bring a round of mvfr cigs across the taf sites. Likely to see
a touch of very light showers/drizzle at times tonight, although
still too much uncertainty with regards to coverage and timing to
include in this taf period. Marginally gusty west to northwest
winds today, veering a touch more northerly tonight...subsiding
some in the process.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Increasingly gusty west and eventually northwest winds today into
this evening, with winds coming around more northerly overnight.
Rather cool airmass for the season will result in somewhat more
vigorous over-water mixing, which should result in some low end
sca producing gusts later today into tonight for many of our
nearshore waters. Marginally gusty winds look to continue into
Tuesday, with some extension to headlines possibly needed.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 271508
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1108 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will track southward through the region today
and tonight. A cooler airmass will then filter in from central
Canada. After another warm day today...below normal temperatures
are expected into the middle part of the week. As for rainfall
the cold frontal passage is expected to be dry for most locations.
A few showers could develop Tuesday...but any rainfall should be
brief.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Minor updates to ongoing forecast. Main concern for the next 12
hours is precipitation potential across northern zones. Current
forecast has low chances and that seems reasonable given latest
output from mesoscale models.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main challenge deals with the rainfall potential in the short
term.

We will need to monitor the risk for possible thunderstorm
development today. I noticed some instability showing up in the
models...and the HRRR RUC was developing some showers during the
day...especially around Ludington. Forecast soundings do suggest a
slight warm layer up around 700 mb...so no thunder. I ended up
adding a small chance for showers to the northwest counties this
afternoon. We may need to expand these showers depending on how
the pattern evolves.

Another risk for showers exists for Tuesday. Any should be few and
far between. Soundings show a shallow convective layer under 650
mb. Thus...with a cool airmass in place...any heating should fill
in with clouds and perhaps a few light showers...mostly away from
the lakeshore.

The low level thermal trough arrives for Tuesday evening. With
diminishing winds and clearing skies...it should be a decent
radiational cooling night. Perhaps some locations like Leota in
Clare county may make a run at the 30s for overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The long term will be fairly quiet with only one real opportunity
for pcpn. High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east
Wednesday night and a cold front will approach from the west. A
strong short that is depicted on both the ecmwf and gfs will swing
across northern Lower Michigan Thursday night and/or Friday but not
before pushing the cold front through the cwa Thursday. So, there
looks to be a 36 hour window in which we may see a few showers
and/or storms. Instability is highest Friday and so we`ll include
the mention of thunder then.

The weekend looks dry as high pressure will move over the Great
Lakes. Comfortable temperatures are expected during this time with
lows in the 50s and highs 75-80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 714 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

After a mostly clear start...clouds will thicken up by evening. A
few showers could develop up around Ludington. Further south the
chances for rain and impacts are less certain. Any fog early this
morning will dissipate quickly. The clouds later on tonight could
support mvfr conditions.  Gusts today could top 25 knots.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

After coordination with surrounding offices, have hoisted a Small
Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard statement for late tonight into
late Tuesday night. Expect to see waves from 3 to 5 feet develop
in the Pentwater to Manistee area late this evening...spreading
south tomorrow...and ending from north to south Tuesday evening.
Waves from 4 to 6 feet may occur across the South Haven to St.
Joseph area tomorrow afternoon and early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through late
     Tuesday night for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MWS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MWS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271130
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
730 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over nrn
ontario to the west of James Bay resulting in cyclonic wrly flow
through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended
to north of Lake Superior from low pressure just south of James Bay.

Today, clouds will continue to thicken as 900-700 mb moisture slides
over the area from the north. The combination of a weak shortwave
trough, low level cyclonic flow and upslope into the higher terrain
will help produce scattered light showers over mainly the wrn half
of the CWA. With cloudy skies,850 mb temps dropping to around 4C
behind the cold front this afternoon, and increasing nnw flow
downwind of Lake Superior much cooler conditions will prevail with
temps falling into the lower 50s north. Warmer air will linger over
the south with temps still climbing to around 70.

nw winds producing waves in the 3 to 5 foot range will result in a
high swim risk for Alger county and a moderate risk for marquette
county. A beach hazards statement highlighting the hazard is in
effect through this evening.

Tonight, although there may be some lingering isold -shra over the
south into the evening, the moisture/clouds are expected to
gradually slide to the south of the Upper Michigan with clearing
skies overnight. Radiational cooling should allow temps to drop into
the lower 40s inland west half with temps closer to 50 over the east
and near the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions and a few chances for rain over the next
week...particularly on Thursday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A very dry air mass for summertime (pwats
around 0.4 inches) associated with ridging will settle over the area
during this time. Though winds will be light, some mixing into a
shallow inversion should allow min RH values to fall into the at
least the low 30s inland. This setup will allow for great
radiational cooling Tuesday night. Widespread 40s are expected, with
some upper 30s possible for the typically coldest interior locations.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: A series ripples in a deeper trough
developing over the east half of Canada combined with some low-level
moisture return behind the ridge may support some very spotty
showers for the interior west on Wednesday, and most of the CWA
Wednesday night. Did trend on the drier side as high cloud bases
Wednesday and the lack of any deep forcing to produce showers heavy
enough to overcome most of the dry air Wednesday night should limit
coverage.

Thursday and Thursday night: The main axis of the building trough
will swing across the CWA during this time. While moisture
availability will still be somewhat of a concern, numerous showers
and some thunderstorms are still expected. Though deep layer shear
will be supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be
too much for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Sunday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible for mainly the east. The arrival of drier low-level air
should prevent precip chances from continuing into the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 729 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Cooler and more moist air moving into the area has brought mvfr cigs
to IWD/CMX and is also expected to drop cigs at SAW to MVFR this
morning. Although there could also be some showers at these sites as
well, no significant vsby restriction is likely. As the veering flow
taps drier air late in the day, some improvement will occur, with
conditions rebounding into the VFR range. SAW will see the more
persistent lower cigs with upslope N wind farther from the dry air
source. Clearing is then expected overnight.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
A cold front will move through Lake Superior today with west winds
veering northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots...strongest over
the east half. High pressure will build into the region tonight with
diminishing winds. Winds are expected to remain relatively light,
less than 20 knots through the rest of the week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through this evening
     for MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 271117
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
717 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will track southward through the region today
and tonight. A cooler airmass will then filter in from central
Canada. After another warm day today...below normal temperatures
are expected into the middle part of the week. As for rainfall
the cold frontal passage is expected to be dry for most locations.
A few showers could develop Tuesday...but any rainfall should be
brief.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main challenge deals with the rainfall potential in the short
term.

We will need to monitor the risk for possible thunderstorm
development today. I noticed some instability showing up in the
models...and the HRRR RUC was developing some showers during the
day...especially around Ludington. Forecast soundings do suggest a
slight warm layer up around 700 mb...so no thunder. I ended up
adding a small chance for showers to the northwest counties this
afternoon. We may need to expand these showers depending on how
the pattern evolves.

Another risk for showers exists for Tuesday. Any should be few and
far between. Soundings show a shallow convective layer under 650
mb. Thus...with a cool airmass in place...any heating should fill
in with clouds and perhaps a few light showers...mostly away from
the lakeshore.

The low level thermal trough arrives for Tuesday evening. With
diminishing winds and clearing skies...it should be a decent
radiational cooling night. Perhaps some locations like Leota in
Clare county may make a run at the 30s for overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The long term will be fairly quiet with only one real opportunity
for pcpn. High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east
Wednesday night and a cold front will approach from the west. A
strong short that is depicted on both the ecmwf and gfs will swing
across northern Lower Michigan Thursday night and/or Friday but not
before pushing the cold front through the cwa Thursday. So, there
looks to be a 36 hour window in which we may see a few showers
and/or storms. Instability is highest Friday and so we`ll include
the mention of thunder then.

The weekend looks dry as high pressure will move over the Great
Lakes. Comfortable temperatures are expected during this time with
lows in the 50s and highs 75-80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 714 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

After a mostly clear start...clouds will thicken up by evening. A
few showers could develop up around Ludington. Further south the
chances for rain and impacts are less certain. Any fog early this
morning will dissipate quickly. The clouds later on tonight could
support mvfr conditions.  Gusts today could top 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Winds and waves will be on the increase tonight into Tuesday.
It looks like some headlines will eventually be needed. An
unseasonably cool airmass moves in for Tuesday. These situations
commonly lead to hazardous conditions for boating and swimming
this time of the year.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 271117
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
717 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will track southward through the region today
and tonight. A cooler airmass will then filter in from central
Canada. After another warm day today...below normal temperatures
are expected into the middle part of the week. As for rainfall
the cold frontal passage is expected to be dry for most locations.
A few showers could develop Tuesday...but any rainfall should be
brief.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main challenge deals with the rainfall potential in the short
term.

We will need to monitor the risk for possible thunderstorm
development today. I noticed some instability showing up in the
models...and the HRRR RUC was developing some showers during the
day...especially around Ludington. Forecast soundings do suggest a
slight warm layer up around 700 mb...so no thunder. I ended up
adding a small chance for showers to the northwest counties this
afternoon. We may need to expand these showers depending on how
the pattern evolves.

Another risk for showers exists for Tuesday. Any should be few and
far between. Soundings show a shallow convective layer under 650
mb. Thus...with a cool airmass in place...any heating should fill
in with clouds and perhaps a few light showers...mostly away from
the lakeshore.

The low level thermal trough arrives for Tuesday evening. With
diminishing winds and clearing skies...it should be a decent
radiational cooling night. Perhaps some locations like Leota in
Clare county may make a run at the 30s for overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The long term will be fairly quiet with only one real opportunity
for pcpn. High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east
Wednesday night and a cold front will approach from the west. A
strong short that is depicted on both the ecmwf and gfs will swing
across northern Lower Michigan Thursday night and/or Friday but not
before pushing the cold front through the cwa Thursday. So, there
looks to be a 36 hour window in which we may see a few showers
and/or storms. Instability is highest Friday and so we`ll include
the mention of thunder then.

The weekend looks dry as high pressure will move over the Great
Lakes. Comfortable temperatures are expected during this time with
lows in the 50s and highs 75-80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 714 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

After a mostly clear start...clouds will thicken up by evening. A
few showers could develop up around Ludington. Further south the
chances for rain and impacts are less certain. Any fog early this
morning will dissipate quickly. The clouds later on tonight could
support mvfr conditions.  Gusts today could top 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Winds and waves will be on the increase tonight into Tuesday.
It looks like some headlines will eventually be needed. An
unseasonably cool airmass moves in for Tuesday. These situations
commonly lead to hazardous conditions for boating and swimming
this time of the year.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271105
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
705 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.AVIATION...

West wind gusting near 25 knots by afternoon will be the only
aviation condition of note today before a stronger cold front
arrives tonight. Observations from the upper Midwest and northern
Great Lakes during the early morning depict a sizable area of MVFR
ceiling within the frontal zone. These clouds should spread south
with the front during the day subject to some lifting or dissipation
due to daytime heating which will likely prevent MVFR in SE
Michigan until closer to sunrise Tuesday.

For DTW... Westerly wind gusting to about 25 knots during the
afternoon will bring crosswind threshold into consideration,
however local guidance suggests southwest traffic operations
should be maintainable. Wind will then diminish while turning
northwest tonight as lower clouds arrive with the next cold
front. Any ceiling is expected to be VFR but less than 5000 ft.
The best chance of MVFR will be late tonight through Tuesday
morning.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Low for exceeding cross wind threshold in westerly flow today.

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

DISCUSSION...

Upper trough will continue to move across Ontario early today, while
a surface trough and cold front associated with this system drop
through the area during the late afternoon and evening. Current
water vapor imagery shows much drier air starting to arrive in the
mid levels. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected to
prevail today as good mixing entrains much of this dry air into the
lower part of the atmosphere, which will also allow for falling
surface dewpoints today (into the 50s). This should provide a much
more comfortable day despite temperatures not cooling off too much
from yesterday. Temperatures should rise into the mid 80s (north) to
low 90s (south) this afternoon, with little change expected in
thermal fields by 18Z from yesterday (slight cooling at H850).
Better mixing and more sun should help offset any cooling in the
column. Arriving cold front will start to cool temperatures across
the Saginaw Valley and northern Thumb by early evening however.
Aside from the continued warm conditions, winds will be the other
story today. A stronger core of winds aloft resulting from
combination of shortwave energy dropping across northern Michigan
and another wave upstream will result in breezy conditions today as
we mix into some of these higher speeds aloft. GFS/NAM soundings
support fairly good sustained speeds around 20 mph during peak
heating, with gusts around 30 mph. Strong winds combined with warm
temperatures and falling RH (potentially less than 30% from M-59
south) causes concern for fire weather, especially given dry
conditions/fuels.

Cooler air and an increase in low-level moisture will gradually slip
in behind the front very late today and tonight. This will provide
only a low chance of showers over the northern Thumb and Saginaw
Valley as the more compact but strong upper wave over MT/ND dives
into Lower Michigan and is enhanced by some left exit region
forcing. Additional energy dropping out of the exiting Canadian
trough will drop into Michigan Tuesday, combining with low-level
moisture behind the front to provide a low chance for a showers over
the remainder of Southeast Michigan. Activity will most likely be
isolated, and only light rain showers with an inversion near 600mb
limiting convective depths. Max temperatures on Tuesday will be much
cooler with a drop of about 10C at H850. This should keep highs
limited to the 70s, and even upper 60s over the thumb.

High pressure spreading into the area Wednesday will bring a return
to sunny skies and quiet weather, but temperatures will be slow to
moderate. Only chance for rain in the extended forecast still looks
like Thursday night into Friday as an upper trough pivots down
across the central Great Lakes, pushing a cold front across the
area. Uncertainty remains high however as models continue to differ
with the amplitude of this system, and the cold front continues to
look fairly weak.

MARINE...

Low pressure moving from James Bay into northern Quebec will
maintain moderate westerly wind over the Great Lakes today and then
pull a two stage cold front over the region tonight into early
Tuesday. Westerly gusts near 25 knots will be common over all marine
areas by this afternoon except for the open waters of Lake Huron
where more stable conditions will exist. The first front will then
bring a northwest wind shift during the evening followed by north to
northeast direction behind the second front overnight. The intrusion
of colder air and long northerly fetch over Lake Huron will allow
waves to build in excess of 4 feet over the southern basin by
Tuesday morning. Small craft advisories are in effect through today
for the gusty wind and another round of headlines will be issued
later for the higher waves Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening FOR LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...HLO
MARINE.......BT


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271105
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
705 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.AVIATION...

West wind gusting near 25 knots by afternoon will be the only
aviation condition of note today before a stronger cold front
arrives tonight. Observations from the upper Midwest and northern
Great Lakes during the early morning depict a sizable area of MVFR
ceiling within the frontal zone. These clouds should spread south
with the front during the day subject to some lifting or dissipation
due to daytime heating which will likely prevent MVFR in SE
Michigan until closer to sunrise Tuesday.

For DTW... Westerly wind gusting to about 25 knots during the
afternoon will bring crosswind threshold into consideration,
however local guidance suggests southwest traffic operations
should be maintainable. Wind will then diminish while turning
northwest tonight as lower clouds arrive with the next cold
front. Any ceiling is expected to be VFR but less than 5000 ft.
The best chance of MVFR will be late tonight through Tuesday
morning.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Low for exceeding cross wind threshold in westerly flow today.

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

DISCUSSION...

Upper trough will continue to move across Ontario early today, while
a surface trough and cold front associated with this system drop
through the area during the late afternoon and evening. Current
water vapor imagery shows much drier air starting to arrive in the
mid levels. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected to
prevail today as good mixing entrains much of this dry air into the
lower part of the atmosphere, which will also allow for falling
surface dewpoints today (into the 50s). This should provide a much
more comfortable day despite temperatures not cooling off too much
from yesterday. Temperatures should rise into the mid 80s (north) to
low 90s (south) this afternoon, with little change expected in
thermal fields by 18Z from yesterday (slight cooling at H850).
Better mixing and more sun should help offset any cooling in the
column. Arriving cold front will start to cool temperatures across
the Saginaw Valley and northern Thumb by early evening however.
Aside from the continued warm conditions, winds will be the other
story today. A stronger core of winds aloft resulting from
combination of shortwave energy dropping across northern Michigan
and another wave upstream will result in breezy conditions today as
we mix into some of these higher speeds aloft. GFS/NAM soundings
support fairly good sustained speeds around 20 mph during peak
heating, with gusts around 30 mph. Strong winds combined with warm
temperatures and falling RH (potentially less than 30% from M-59
south) causes concern for fire weather, especially given dry
conditions/fuels.

Cooler air and an increase in low-level moisture will gradually slip
in behind the front very late today and tonight. This will provide
only a low chance of showers over the northern Thumb and Saginaw
Valley as the more compact but strong upper wave over MT/ND dives
into Lower Michigan and is enhanced by some left exit region
forcing. Additional energy dropping out of the exiting Canadian
trough will drop into Michigan Tuesday, combining with low-level
moisture behind the front to provide a low chance for a showers over
the remainder of Southeast Michigan. Activity will most likely be
isolated, and only light rain showers with an inversion near 600mb
limiting convective depths. Max temperatures on Tuesday will be much
cooler with a drop of about 10C at H850. This should keep highs
limited to the 70s, and even upper 60s over the thumb.

High pressure spreading into the area Wednesday will bring a return
to sunny skies and quiet weather, but temperatures will be slow to
moderate. Only chance for rain in the extended forecast still looks
like Thursday night into Friday as an upper trough pivots down
across the central Great Lakes, pushing a cold front across the
area. Uncertainty remains high however as models continue to differ
with the amplitude of this system, and the cold front continues to
look fairly weak.

MARINE...

Low pressure moving from James Bay into northern Quebec will
maintain moderate westerly wind over the Great Lakes today and then
pull a two stage cold front over the region tonight into early
Tuesday. Westerly gusts near 25 knots will be common over all marine
areas by this afternoon except for the open waters of Lake Huron
where more stable conditions will exist. The first front will then
bring a northwest wind shift during the evening followed by north to
northeast direction behind the second front overnight. The intrusion
of colder air and long northerly fetch over Lake Huron will allow
waves to build in excess of 4 feet over the southern basin by
Tuesday morning. Small craft advisories are in effect through today
for the gusty wind and another round of headlines will be issued
later for the higher waves Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening FOR LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...HLO
MARINE.......BT


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271039
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
639 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Troughing continues to slowly
build across the Great Lakes, and looks to continue to do so right
through the first part of this week. While most aggressive height
falls currently are occurring across Ontario, additional spokes of
energy digging on backside of building trough will help kick in
amplification across our area into Tuesday. Passage of what turned
out to be a rather benign cold front yesterday has ushered in a much
drier airmass, as evident by greater than one inch reduction in
overhead pwat values between local 12z and 00z soundings. Despite
this, still enough moisture interacting with passing vort lobes to
kick off a few light showers to our north and northwest. This trend
looks to continue today and tonight, with southward building trough
suggesting we may get in on a touch of very light rain at times
through the short term period.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and temperature trends
through tonight. Addressing that light shower concern.

Details: Most certain part of this forecast is that it will be a
cooler regime than recently experienced. Caa only looks to
continue and strengthen today and tonight with passage of
secondary cold front , forcing h8 temperatures to drop into the
mid and upper single digits (pretty impressive for the end of
June) by Tuesday morning. Still some "residue" warmth today,
especially in favored west/northwest downslope areas of northeast
lower Michigan. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a good 10 to 15
degrees cooler than those experienced yesterday, with highs
likely not getting much out of the 60s for areas north of the big
bridge. Maintenance of light winds and plenty of clouds tonight
will prevent readings from getting too far out of hand. Still,
expected temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s
are a few degrees below what is considered normal for the end of
June.

Addressing light shower potential is a much lower confidence
endeavor. Think current round of showers across Lake Superior and
parts of western upper Michigan will largely miss our area early
this morning. Not so sure about what happens later this morning
and afternoon as dual upstream waves drop southeast out of Canada.
Band of low and mid level clouds already associated with these,
which should slowly drop into our area today and this evening.
Some scattered light showers/sprinkles falling out of this cloud
deck at times. Can`t completely rule out the same for area later
today, although soundings show maintenance of elevated capping to
prevent any signficant diurnal contribution. With that said, that
cap is not particularly robust, and it wouldn`t take too much to
nudge a parcel past it. Any shower activity looks to remain very
light and scattered. Will go ahead and introduce some isolated
shower wording, but expecting what ever does fall will likely no
more than wet the pavement.

Better chance for light showers arrives this evening as core of main
height falls/troughing arrives. Thinking band of scattered
showers/sprinkles will drop south through the area in response. Once
again, not a big deal at all, will only very light rain totals
expected. A mostly cloudy evening does give way to clearing
pushing in from the north very late night/early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

(6/28)Tuesday...The 500 mb shortwave trough is moving out of the
forecast area, by 12z, with a really low chance for anything going
one in the morning (less than 20%). The sfc high is building into
the region during the day, and the 500 mb heights are building, so
will expect that the clouds will decrease during the day. The
evening should be mostly clear, as the sfc high has firm control
over the region.

(6/29)Wednesday...The bulk of the day time looks dry, as the high
begins to lose control over the Upper Great Lakes, and the next cold
front begins to move into the region. The evening looks dry on both
models, but it`s after 06z that the difference occurs. The GFS has a
flatter trough, with pieces of energy spinning around it, pushing
into the northern Michigan. The ECMWF has a much sharper 500 mb
trough that lags the rain back in W Upper until 12z. So have the
pops barely getting into E Upper by 12z.

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...Models are consistent with the
500 mb trough that rotates through the Upper Great Lakes Thursday
and Friday with the rain ending by friday afternoon as the sfc High
builds into the region. The 500 mb low north of the region moves
east and the 500 mb ridge begins to build on Saturday, and continues
into Sunday for a warm dry weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Increasing stcu/cu today as mid level waves and diurnal
contributions work in tandem. Those same diurnal contributions
should keep the lower levels fairly mixed, resulting in what
should primarily be vfr cig heights. Cooling conditions tonight
and passing stronger mid level wave/attendant surface trough looks
to bring a round of mvfr cigs across the taf sites. Likely to see
a touch of very light showers/drizzle at times tonight, although
still too much uncertainty with regards to coverage and timing to
include in this taf period. Marginally gusty west to northwest
winds today, veering a touch more northerly tonight...subsiding
some in the process.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Increasingly gusty west and eventually northwest winds today into
this evening, with winds coming around more northerly overnight.
Rather cool airmass for the season will result in somewhat more
vigorous over-water mixing, which should result in some low end
sca producing gusts later today into tonight for many of our
nearshore waters. Marginally gusty winds look to continue into
Tuesday, with some extension to headlines possibly needed.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271039
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
639 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Troughing continues to slowly
build across the Great Lakes, and looks to continue to do so right
through the first part of this week. While most aggressive height
falls currently are occurring across Ontario, additional spokes of
energy digging on backside of building trough will help kick in
amplification across our area into Tuesday. Passage of what turned
out to be a rather benign cold front yesterday has ushered in a much
drier airmass, as evident by greater than one inch reduction in
overhead pwat values between local 12z and 00z soundings. Despite
this, still enough moisture interacting with passing vort lobes to
kick off a few light showers to our north and northwest. This trend
looks to continue today and tonight, with southward building trough
suggesting we may get in on a touch of very light rain at times
through the short term period.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and temperature trends
through tonight. Addressing that light shower concern.

Details: Most certain part of this forecast is that it will be a
cooler regime than recently experienced. Caa only looks to
continue and strengthen today and tonight with passage of
secondary cold front , forcing h8 temperatures to drop into the
mid and upper single digits (pretty impressive for the end of
June) by Tuesday morning. Still some "residue" warmth today,
especially in favored west/northwest downslope areas of northeast
lower Michigan. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a good 10 to 15
degrees cooler than those experienced yesterday, with highs
likely not getting much out of the 60s for areas north of the big
bridge. Maintenance of light winds and plenty of clouds tonight
will prevent readings from getting too far out of hand. Still,
expected temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s
are a few degrees below what is considered normal for the end of
June.

Addressing light shower potential is a much lower confidence
endeavor. Think current round of showers across Lake Superior and
parts of western upper Michigan will largely miss our area early
this morning. Not so sure about what happens later this morning
and afternoon as dual upstream waves drop southeast out of Canada.
Band of low and mid level clouds already associated with these,
which should slowly drop into our area today and this evening.
Some scattered light showers/sprinkles falling out of this cloud
deck at times. Can`t completely rule out the same for area later
today, although soundings show maintenance of elevated capping to
prevent any signficant diurnal contribution. With that said, that
cap is not particularly robust, and it wouldn`t take too much to
nudge a parcel past it. Any shower activity looks to remain very
light and scattered. Will go ahead and introduce some isolated
shower wording, but expecting what ever does fall will likely no
more than wet the pavement.

Better chance for light showers arrives this evening as core of main
height falls/troughing arrives. Thinking band of scattered
showers/sprinkles will drop south through the area in response. Once
again, not a big deal at all, will only very light rain totals
expected. A mostly cloudy evening does give way to clearing
pushing in from the north very late night/early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

(6/28)Tuesday...The 500 mb shortwave trough is moving out of the
forecast area, by 12z, with a really low chance for anything going
one in the morning (less than 20%). The sfc high is building into
the region during the day, and the 500 mb heights are building, so
will expect that the clouds will decrease during the day. The
evening should be mostly clear, as the sfc high has firm control
over the region.

(6/29)Wednesday...The bulk of the day time looks dry, as the high
begins to lose control over the Upper Great Lakes, and the next cold
front begins to move into the region. The evening looks dry on both
models, but it`s after 06z that the difference occurs. The GFS has a
flatter trough, with pieces of energy spinning around it, pushing
into the northern Michigan. The ECMWF has a much sharper 500 mb
trough that lags the rain back in W Upper until 12z. So have the
pops barely getting into E Upper by 12z.

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...Models are consistent with the
500 mb trough that rotates through the Upper Great Lakes Thursday
and Friday with the rain ending by friday afternoon as the sfc High
builds into the region. The 500 mb low north of the region moves
east and the 500 mb ridge begins to build on Saturday, and continues
into Sunday for a warm dry weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Increasing stcu/cu today as mid level waves and diurnal
contributions work in tandem. Those same diurnal contributions
should keep the lower levels fairly mixed, resulting in what
should primarily be vfr cig heights. Cooling conditions tonight
and passing stronger mid level wave/attendant surface trough looks
to bring a round of mvfr cigs across the taf sites. Likely to see
a touch of very light showers/drizzle at times tonight, although
still too much uncertainty with regards to coverage and timing to
include in this taf period. Marginally gusty west to northwest
winds today, veering a touch more northerly tonight...subsiding
some in the process.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Increasingly gusty west and eventually northwest winds today into
this evening, with winds coming around more northerly overnight.
Rather cool airmass for the season will result in somewhat more
vigorous over-water mixing, which should result in some low end
sca producing gusts later today into tonight for many of our
nearshore waters. Marginally gusty winds look to continue into
Tuesday, with some extension to headlines possibly needed.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 270907
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
507 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over nrn
ontario to the west of James Bay resulting in cyclonic wrly flow
through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended
to north of Lake Superior from low pressure just south of James Bay.

Today, clouds will continue to thicken as 900-700 mb moisture slides
over the area from the north. The combination of a weak shortwave
trough, low level cyclonic flow and upslope into the higher terrain
will help produce scattered light showers over mainly the wrn half
of the CWA. With cloudy skies,850 mb temps dropping to around 4C
behind the cold front this afternoon, and increasing nnw flow
downwind of Lake Superior much cooler conditions will prevail with
temps falling into the lower 50s north. Warmer air will linger over
the south with temps still climbing to around 70.

nw winds producing waves in the 3 to 5 foot range will result in a
high swim risk for Alger county and a moderate risk for marquette
county. A beach hazards statement highlighting the hazard is in
effect through this evening.

Tonight, although there may be some lingering isold -shra over the
south into the evening, the moisture/clouds are expected to
gradually slide to the south of the Upper Michigan with clearing
skies overnight. Radiational cooling should allow temps to drop into
the lower 40s inland west half with temps closer to 50 over the east
and near the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions and a few chances for rain over the next
week...particularly on Thursday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A very dry air mass for summertime (pwats
around 0.4 inches) associated with ridging will settle over the area
during this time. Though winds will be light, some mixing into a
shallow inversion should allow min RH values to fall into the at
least the low 30s inland. This setup will allow for great
radiational cooling Tuesday night. Widespread 40s are expected, with
some upper 30s possible for the typically coldest interior locations.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: A series ripples in a deeper trough
developing over the east half of Canada combined with some low-level
moisture return behind the ridge may support some very spotty
showers for the interior west on Wednesday, and most of the CWA
Wednesday night. Did trend on the drier side as high cloud bases
Wednesday and the lack of any deep forcing to produce showers heavy
enough to overcome most of the dry air Wednesday night should limit
coverage.

Thursday and Thursday night: The main axis of the building trough
will swing across the CWA during this time. While moisture
availability will still be somewhat of a concern, numerous showers
and some thunderstorms are still expected. Though deep layer shear
will be supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be
too much for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Sunday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible for mainly the east. The arrival of drier low-level air
should prevent precip chances from continuing into the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

As gusty W veering NW winds advect cooler and moister air into the
Upr Lks, expect VFR conditions early this mrng to deteriorate into
the MVFR range toward sunrise, faster at the CMX and IWD sites where
the NW flow wl present an upslope wind component. Although there
could also be some showers at these sites as well, no sgnft vsby
restriction is likely. As the veering flow taps drier air late in
the day, some improvement wl occur, with conditions rebounding into
the VFR range. SAW wl see the more persistent lower cigs with
upslope N wind farther fm the dry air source.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
A cold front will move through Lake Superior today with west winds
veering northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots...strongest over
the east half. High pressure will build into the region tonight with
diminishing winds. Winds are expected to remain relatively light,
less than 20 knots through the rest of the week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through this evening
     for MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KDTX 270745
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Upper trough will continue to move across Ontario early today, while
a surface trough and cold front associated with this system drop
through the area during the late afternoon and evening. Current
water vapor imagery shows much drier air starting to arrive in the
mid levels. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected to
prevail today as good mixing entrains much of this dry air into the
lower part of the atmosphere, which will also allow for falling
surface dewpoints today (into the 50s). This should provide a much
more comfortable day despite temperatures not cooling off too much
from yesterday. Temperatures should rise into the mid 80s (north) to
low 90s (south) this afternoon, with little change expected in
thermal fields by 18Z from yesterday (slight cooling at H850).
Better mixing and more sun should help offset any cooling in the
column. Arriving cold front will start to cool temperatures across
the Saginaw Valley and northern Thumb by early evening however.
Aside from the continued warm conditions, winds will be the other
story today. A stronger core of winds aloft resulting from
combination of shortwave energy dropping across northern Michigan
and another wave upstream will result in breezy conditions today as
we mix into some of these higher speeds aloft. GFS/NAM soundings
support fairly good sustained speeds around 20 mph during peak
heating, with gusts around 30 mph. Strong winds combined with warm
temperatures and falling RH (potentially less than 30% from M-59
south) causes concern for fire weather, especially given dry
conditions/fuels.

Cooler air and an increase in low-level moisture will gradually slip
in behind the front very late today and tonight. This will provide
only a low chance of showers over the northern Thumb and Saginaw
Valley as the more compact but strong upper wave over MT/ND dives
into Lower Michigan and is enhanced by some left exit region
forcing. Additional energy dropping out of the exiting Canadian
trough will drop into Michigan Tuesday, combining with low-level
moisture behind the front to provide a low chance for a showers over
the remainder of Southeast Michigan. Activity will most likely be
isolated, and only light rain showers with an inversion near 600mb
limiting convective depths. Max temperatures on Tuesday will be much
cooler with a drop of about 10C at H850. This should keep highs
limited to the 70s, and even upper 60s over the thumb.

High pressure spreading into the area Wednesday will bring a return
to sunny skies and quiet weather, but temperatures will be slow to
moderate. Only chance for rain in the extended forecast still looks
like Thursday night into Friday as an upper trough pivots down
across the central Great Lakes, pushing a cold front across the
area. Uncertainty remains high however as models continue to differ
with the amplitude of this system, and the cold front continues to
look fairly weak.

&&

.MARINE...

Low pressure moving from James Bay into northern Quebec will
maintain moderate westerly wind over the Great Lakes today and then
pull a two stage cold front over the region tonight into early
Tuesday. Westerly gusts near 25 knots will be common over all marine
areas by this afternoon except for the open waters of Lake Huron
where more stable conditions will exist. The first front will then
bring a northwest wind shift during the evening followed by north to
northeast direction behind the second front overnight. The intrusion
of colder air and long northerly fetch over Lake Huron will allow
waves to build in excess of 4 feet over the southern basin by
Tuesday morning. Small craft advisories are in effect through today
for the gusty wind and another round of headlines will be issued
later for the higher waves Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1143 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Tightening
pressure gradient in advance of approaching cold front will lead to
W/WSW wind gusts to around 25 knots during best mixing on Monday.
Winds will then veer to NW with the passage of this front Monday
evening. CIGS will thicken and gradually lower in the wake of this
front, but the chance of MVFR conditions appears to hold off until
06z or beyond attm.

For DTW...W/WSW wind gusts will approach cross wind thresholds in
the 28-30 knot range Monday afternoon, but probably average closer
to 25 knots. Veering winds behind a cold front will usher in lower
CIGS, possibly MVFR, Monday night.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Medium confidence in westerly winds gusting to 25 knots or greater
  tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening FOR LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HLO
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270726
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
326 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Troughing continues to slowly
build across the Great Lakes, and looks to continue to do so right
through the first part of this week. While most aggressive height
falls currently are occurring across Ontario, additional spokes of
energy digging on backside of building trough will help kick in
amplification across our area into Tuesday. Passage of what turned
out to be a rather benign cold front yesterday has ushered in a much
drier airmass, as evident by greater than one inch reduction in
overhead pwat values between local 12z and 00z soundings. Despite
this, still enough moisture interacting with passing vort lobes to
kick off a few light showers to our north and northwest. This trend
looks to continue today and tonight, with southward building trough
suggesting we may get in on a touch of very light rain at times
through the short term period.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and temperature trends
through tonight. Addressing that light shower concern.

Details: Most certain part of this forecast is that it will be a
cooler regime than recently experienced. Caa only looks to
continue and strengthen today and tonight with passage of
secondary cold front , forcing h8 temperatures to drop into the
mid and upper single digits (pretty impressive for the end of
June) by Tuesday morning. Still some "residue" warmth today,
especially in favored west/northwest downslope areas of northeast
lower Michigan. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a good 10 to 15
degrees cooler than those experienced yesterday, with highs
likely not getting much out of the 60s for areas north of the big
bridge. Maintenance of light winds and plenty of clouds tonight
will prevent readings from getting too far out of hand. Still,
expected temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s
are a few degrees below what is considered normal for the end of
June.

Addressing light shower potential is a much lower confidence
endeavor. Think current round of showers across Lake Superior and
parts of western upper Michigan will largely miss our area early
this morning. Not so sure about what happens later this morning
and afternoon as dual upstream waves drop southeast out of Canada.
Band of low and mid level clouds already associated with these,
which should slowly drop into our area today and this evening.
Some scattered light showers/sprinkles falling out of this cloud
deck at times. Can`t completely rule out the same for area later
today, although soundings show maintenance of elevated capping to
prevent any signficant diurnal contribution. With that said, that
cap is not particularly robust, and it wouldn`t take too much to
nudge a parcel past it. Any shower activity looks to remain very
light and scattered. Will go ahead and introduce some isolated
shower wording, but expecting what ever does fall will likely no
more than wet the pavement.

Better chance for light showers arrives this evening as core of main
height falls/troughing arrives. Thinking band of scattered
showers/sprinkles will drop south through the area in response. Once
again, not a big deal at all, will only very light rain totals
expected. A mostly cloudy evening does give way to clearing
pushing in from the north very late night/early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

(6/28)Tuesday...The 500 mb shortwave trough is moving out of the
forecast area, by 12z, with a really low chance for anything going
one in the morning (less than 20%). The sfc high is building into
the region during the day, and the 500 mb heights are building, so
will expect that the clouds will decrease during the day. The
evening should be mostly clear, as the sfc high has firm control
over the region.

(6/29)Wednesday...The bulk of the day time looks dry, as the high
begins to lose control over the Upper Great Lakes, and the next cold
front begins to move into the region. The evening looks dry on both
models, but it`s after 06z that the difference occurs. The GFS has a
flatter trough, with pieces of energy spinning around it, pushing
into the northern Michigan. The ECMWF has a much sharper 500 mb
trough that lags the rain back in W Upper until 12z. So have the
pops barely getting into E Upper by 12z.

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...Models are consistent with the
500 mb trough that rotates through the Upper Great Lakes Thursday
and Friday with the rain ending by friday afternoon as the sfc High
builds into the region. The 500 mb low north of the region moves
east and the 500 mb ridge begins to build on Saturday, and continues
into Sunday for a warm dry weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Clear skies will give way to increasing stcu/cu this morning, and
especially by this afternoon. Increasing mixed layer depth should
keep cigs in VFR category. Cooling low levels and passage of mid
level wave will likely bring a round of mvfr cigs tonight. May see
some spotty very light showers/sprinkles at times later today and
tonight. Limited coverage/impacts precludes a specific mention in
the forecast just yet. Light winds to become a touch gusty out of
the west to northwest today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Increasingly gusty west and eventually northwest winds today into
this evening, with winds coming around more northerly overnight.
Rather cool airmass for the season will result in somewhat more
vigorous over-water mixing, which should result in some low end
sca producing gusts later today into tonight for many of our
nearshore waters. Marginally gusty winds look to continue into
Tuesday, with some extension to headlines possibly needed.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270726
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
326 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Troughing continues to slowly
build across the Great Lakes, and looks to continue to do so right
through the first part of this week. While most aggressive height
falls currently are occurring across Ontario, additional spokes of
energy digging on backside of building trough will help kick in
amplification across our area into Tuesday. Passage of what turned
out to be a rather benign cold front yesterday has ushered in a much
drier airmass, as evident by greater than one inch reduction in
overhead pwat values between local 12z and 00z soundings. Despite
this, still enough moisture interacting with passing vort lobes to
kick off a few light showers to our north and northwest. This trend
looks to continue today and tonight, with southward building trough
suggesting we may get in on a touch of very light rain at times
through the short term period.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and temperature trends
through tonight. Addressing that light shower concern.

Details: Most certain part of this forecast is that it will be a
cooler regime than recently experienced. Caa only looks to
continue and strengthen today and tonight with passage of
secondary cold front , forcing h8 temperatures to drop into the
mid and upper single digits (pretty impressive for the end of
June) by Tuesday morning. Still some "residue" warmth today,
especially in favored west/northwest downslope areas of northeast
lower Michigan. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a good 10 to 15
degrees cooler than those experienced yesterday, with highs
likely not getting much out of the 60s for areas north of the big
bridge. Maintenance of light winds and plenty of clouds tonight
will prevent readings from getting too far out of hand. Still,
expected temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s
are a few degrees below what is considered normal for the end of
June.

Addressing light shower potential is a much lower confidence
endeavor. Think current round of showers across Lake Superior and
parts of western upper Michigan will largely miss our area early
this morning. Not so sure about what happens later this morning
and afternoon as dual upstream waves drop southeast out of Canada.
Band of low and mid level clouds already associated with these,
which should slowly drop into our area today and this evening.
Some scattered light showers/sprinkles falling out of this cloud
deck at times. Can`t completely rule out the same for area later
today, although soundings show maintenance of elevated capping to
prevent any signficant diurnal contribution. With that said, that
cap is not particularly robust, and it wouldn`t take too much to
nudge a parcel past it. Any shower activity looks to remain very
light and scattered. Will go ahead and introduce some isolated
shower wording, but expecting what ever does fall will likely no
more than wet the pavement.

Better chance for light showers arrives this evening as core of main
height falls/troughing arrives. Thinking band of scattered
showers/sprinkles will drop south through the area in response. Once
again, not a big deal at all, will only very light rain totals
expected. A mostly cloudy evening does give way to clearing
pushing in from the north very late night/early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

(6/28)Tuesday...The 500 mb shortwave trough is moving out of the
forecast area, by 12z, with a really low chance for anything going
one in the morning (less than 20%). The sfc high is building into
the region during the day, and the 500 mb heights are building, so
will expect that the clouds will decrease during the day. The
evening should be mostly clear, as the sfc high has firm control
over the region.

(6/29)Wednesday...The bulk of the day time looks dry, as the high
begins to lose control over the Upper Great Lakes, and the next cold
front begins to move into the region. The evening looks dry on both
models, but it`s after 06z that the difference occurs. The GFS has a
flatter trough, with pieces of energy spinning around it, pushing
into the northern Michigan. The ECMWF has a much sharper 500 mb
trough that lags the rain back in W Upper until 12z. So have the
pops barely getting into E Upper by 12z.

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...Models are consistent with the
500 mb trough that rotates through the Upper Great Lakes Thursday
and Friday with the rain ending by friday afternoon as the sfc High
builds into the region. The 500 mb low north of the region moves
east and the 500 mb ridge begins to build on Saturday, and continues
into Sunday for a warm dry weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Clear skies will give way to increasing stcu/cu this morning, and
especially by this afternoon. Increasing mixed layer depth should
keep cigs in VFR category. Cooling low levels and passage of mid
level wave will likely bring a round of mvfr cigs tonight. May see
some spotty very light showers/sprinkles at times later today and
tonight. Limited coverage/impacts precludes a specific mention in
the forecast just yet. Light winds to become a touch gusty out of
the west to northwest today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Increasingly gusty west and eventually northwest winds today into
this evening, with winds coming around more northerly overnight.
Rather cool airmass for the season will result in somewhat more
vigorous over-water mixing, which should result in some low end
sca producing gusts later today into tonight for many of our
nearshore waters. Marginally gusty winds look to continue into
Tuesday, with some extension to headlines possibly needed.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 270721
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
321 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will track southward through the region today
and tonight. A cooler airmass will then filter in from central
Canada. After another warm day today...below normal temperatures
are expected into the middle part of the week. As for rainfall
the cold frontal passage is expected to be dry for most locations.
A few showers could develop Tuesday...but any rainfall should be
brief.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main challenge deals with the rainfall potential in the short
term.

We will need to monitor the risk for possible thunderstorm
development today. I noticed some instability showing up in the
models...and the HRRR RUC was developing some showers during the
day...especially around Ludington. Forecast soundings do suggest a
slight warm layer up around 700 mb...so no thunder. I ended up
adding a small chance for showers to the northwest counties this
afternoon. We may need to expand these showers depending on how
the pattern evolves.

Another risk for showers exists for Tuesday. Any should be few and
far between. Soundings show a shallow convective layer under 650
mb. Thus...with a cool airmass in place...any heating should fill
in with clouds and perhaps a few light showers...mostly away from
the lakeshore.

The low level thermal trough arrives for Tuesday evening. With
diminishing winds and clearing skies...it should be a decent
radiational cooling night. Perhaps some locations like Leota in
Clare county may make a run at the 30s for overnight lows.





.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The long term will be fairly quiet with only one real opportunity
for pcpn. High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east
Wednesday night and a cold front will approach from the west. A
strong short that is depicted on both the ecmwf and gfs will swing
across northern Lower Michigan Thursday night and/or Friday but not
before pushing the cold front through the cwa Thursday. So, there
looks to be a 36 hour window in which we may see a few showers
and/or storms. Instability is highest Friday and so we`ll include
the mention of thunder then.

The weekend looks dry as high pressure will move over the Great
Lakes. Comfortable temperatures are expected during this time with
lows in the 50s and highs 75-80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Quite a bit of high cloudiness remains across southern Lower
Michigan this evening. Dewpoints also remain high, but should
decrease a bit overnight. TAFs at BTL, AZO, and JXN may drop to
5sm BR early in the period before winds increase later this
morning and vsbys become vfr.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Winds and waves will be on the increase tonight into Tuesday.
It looks like some headlines will eventually be needed. An
unseasonably cool airmass moves in for Tuesday. These situations
commonly lead to hazardous conditions for boating and swimming
this time of the year.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 270719
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
319 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Mostly sunny skies across Upr Michigan this aftn in wake of the
front that brought showers and thunderstorms last night. West winds
are breezy and should reach around advy levels this evening on the
Keweenaw as RAP and HRRR soundings show mixed layer building to
depth that will tap into winds from 38-43 kts. This matches up with
the 40 kts at h925 seen on the 12z INL sounding. Pressure rise also
moving in late this aftn should help boost winds. Stronger winds
will end btwn 00z-02z.

Upper level low currently over northern Ontario moves to near James
Bay by 12z Monday. Stronger shortwave rotating around the upper low
is bringing widespread clouds and some showers, especially across
southern Manitoba into parts of northern Ontario. Expect this
shortwave to settle across Upr Michigan later tonight with h85
thermal trough following on Monday. Deep moisture h9-h7 moves over
the area late tonight into Monday. Due to the moisture expect
scattered showers especially over the west half of the cwa with
additional lift provided by upslope over the higher terrain. Another
breezy but much cooler day with highs only reaching to around 60
degrees near Lk Superior and into the 60s south central. Temps along
some shoreline areas of Lk Superior may stay in the 50s.

Despite the cool temps the gusty northwest winds will build waves on
Lk Superior. The result will be a high swim risk for the beaches of
Alger county. Local guidance suggests that a Beach hazard statement
will be needed. Will mention increased swim risk in the Hazardous
weather outlook and through social media.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions and a few chances for rain over the next
week...particularly on Thursday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A very dry air mass for summertime (pwats
around 0.4 inches) associated with ridging will settle over the area
during this time. Though winds will be light, some mixing into a
shallow inversion should allow min RH values to fall into the at
least the low 30s inland. This setup will allow for great
radiational cooling Tuesday night. Widespread 40s are expected, with
some upper 30s possible for the typically coldest interior locations.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: A series ripples in a deeper trough
developing over the east half of Canada combined with some low-level
moisture return behind the ridge may support some very spotty
showers for the interior west on Wednesday, and most of the CWA
Wednesday night. Did trend on the drier side as high cloud bases
Wednesday and the lack of any deep forcing to produce showers heavy
enough to overcome most of the dry air Wednesday night should limit
coverage.

Thursday and Thursday night: The main axis of the building trough
will swing across the CWA during this time. While moisture
availability will still be somewhat of a concern, numerous showers
and some thunderstorms are still expected. Though deep layer shear
will be supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be
too much for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Sunday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible for mainly the east. The arrival of drier low-level air
should prevent precip chances from continuing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

As gusty W veering NW winds advect cooler and moister air into the
Upr Lks, expect VFR conditions early this mrng to deteriorate into
the MVFR range toward sunrise, faster at the CMX and IWD sites where
the NW flow wl present an upslope wind component. Although there
could also be some showers at these sites as well, no sgnft vsby
restriction is likely. As the veering flow taps drier air late in
the day, some improvement wl occur, with conditions rebounding into
the VFR range. SAW wl see the more persistent lower cigs with
upslope N wind farther fm the dry air source.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

SW winds 20-30 kts shift NW on Monday. Strongest winds on Monday
will be over east half. Winds diminish through rest of week less
than 20 kts as pressure gradient weakens.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270531
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
131 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Skies remain clear across most of our CWA...with the exception of
some cirrus debris across our SE counties from convection
developing along the initial cold front now south of Michigan. To
our NW...leading edge of low/mid cloud associated with the
secondary (stronger) cold front has reached far Western Upper
Michigan right on schedule...and will likely slide into Eastern
Upper Michigan overnight per latest short term models. Still
appears increasing clouds will hold off until after sunrise on
Monday. Going forecast is handling this scenario well...no changes
needed at this time. Temps will be noticeably cooler tonight...
with overnight lows falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s with
less humid conditions as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Cooler and drier air arrive tonight...

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Overview: Stacked low pressure system is spinning over western
Ontario with a front arcing down through the Great Lakes. 18Z
surface analysis suggests front is just about to push into eastern
upper Michigan and extends down through Lake Michigan into SE
Wisconsin, per subtle wind shift and drop in dewpoints across the
boundary. Ahead of the front, abundant cloud cover still remains
over most of the CWA although mixing/thinning of the cloud cover
is starting to unfold and skies have largely cleared in eastern
upper save for a bit of marine stratus across Mackinac county.

Mild but soupy out there, with temps spanning the 70s and
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, but a far cry from the 80s we
were originally planning. Latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests only a
few hundred J/KG MLCAPE values over the E/SE parts of the CWA
although we still have time for late heating and some areas may
yet make a run into the 80s.

Tonight: Still waiting to see what, if anything can pop. Upstream
front/subtle wind shift/dewpoint boundary will be crossing the
region over the next few hours. Low level convergence with the
front is minimal and am very tempted to remove pops altogether at
this point. But we could pop something along the front or along
some sort of differential heating boundary before all is said and
done and most likely over NE lower michigan.

Otherwise, clearing skies tonight as drier air makes its way into
the region. Secondary cold front and wrap around cloud cover will
be rotating down through upper Michigan overnight and may spread
some cloud cover into the northern sections of the CWA late.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

High impact weather potential: none.

Stretch of cooler wx looks to wrap up the month. 500mb ridging to
remain anchored over the Rockies, with troffing in place over
eastern Canada and the ne quarter of the conus. This is not a
terribly active pattern (thank goodness it`s summer). However, there
are shower chances Monday/Mon night as an amplifying shortwave
crosses the northern lakes.

Monday/Mon night...a secondary cold front will cross northern MI in
the morning, veering winds from w to wnw/nw and reinforcing cold
advection. A couple of shortwaves will phase over our heads Monday
night, one arriving from far northern Ontario and the other from
central MN.  These will combine and amplify, helping drive another
trailing front across the region Monday night, with low-level winds
veering further to nne.

The above actually sounds impressive, but at no point do we actually
have a lot of moisture available. Sub-850mb moisture will increase
considerably behind the initial secondary front Monday (see cloud
mass that presently exists n and nw of MN). Anticipate abundant low
clouds already in place in eastern upper MI, and making considerable
progress into northern lower MI during the morning. Southward
progress will stall by midday thanks to strong diurnal heating, and
anticipate at least a partly sunny day in se sections. But
elsewhere, it will be a struggle to break down this cloud deck into
anything less than a thick cu/stratocu deck, even in the afternoon.
Said moisture does look too shallow for much in the way of precip,
though some drizzle is perhaps not out of the question in eastern
upper in the morning.

Late in the day, an input of mid-level moisture and cooler temps
aloft will be seen. This will be a more conducive pattern for shower
development. However, best chances for this will be areas with less
of a marine influence. That includes Ontario (ne of the Sault), and
western upper MI/northern WI. Some of the former could scrape by the
St Mary Valley in the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the
latter will try to work across Lake MI toward nw lower MI in the
evening. We saw this sort of thing on Wednesday of last week, when
decaying showers were aided by cooling/moistening, and were
successful in crossing the cool lake waters. The Ecmwf reflects this
idea. Will have chance pops in some parts of eastern upper/nw lower
MI late Monday. Wonder if some of the models (Nam in particular)
carry too much precip too far eastward overnight. However, in
deference to a still-sharpening digging upper trof, will have a
small chance of showers overnight in part of ne lower MI. Sharp
subsidence arrives in western/northern sections late behind the
amplifying upper trof, and partial clearing will be seen.

Max temps range from upper 60s parts of eastern upper, to lower 80s
near Saginaw Bay. Min temps upper 40s to middle 50s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...quiet. Shortwave ridging in the wake of the
Monday night trof arrives by Tuesday night. Next shortwave will make
some inroads over northern Lake Superior on Wednesday, but not close
enough to have a substantial impact here. These periods all appear
dry, with relatively little in the way of cloud cover. Can guide max
temps a bit above guidance, and min temps a bit below. Overall, our
airmass in relatively cool (850mb temps around 8c), keeping temps
cooler than normal. Max temps will be near 70f to the lower 70s Tue,
mostly middle 70s Wed. Min temps mainly in the low/mid 40s Tue
night, and some stray 30s in interior cold spots are possible.

JZ

High pressure overhead Wednesday night into the first half of
Thursday progresses eastward Thursday afternoon ahead of an area of
low pressure expected to slide through southern Canada, ultimately
swinging a cold front through northern Michigan on Thursday.
Certainly looks to have a very similar feel to today`s cold front as
convection over WI weakens as it moves over Lake Michigan and then
reintensifies east of the area. At any rate...will increase PoPs
Thursday/Thursday night before returning to mainly dry and
seasonable conditions for next weekend. High temperatures throughout
the extended period range through the 70s with overnight lows in the
50s.

Gillen

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Clear skies will give way to increasing stcu/cu this morning, and
especially by this afternoon. Increasing mixed layer depth should
keep cigs in VFR category. Cooling low levels and passage of mid
level wave will likely bring a round of mvfr cigs tonight. May see
some spotty very light showers/sprinkles at times later today and
tonight. Limited coverage/impacts precludes a specific mention in
the forecast just yet. Light winds to become a touch gusty out of
the west to northwest today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Gusty SW to W winds remain over the lakes this afternoon although
sustained small craft advisory conditions have not really
materialized at this juncture. Some gustiness will persist, but
plan to cancel advisories with the 5 PM forecast issuance.

Winds will veer more westerly tonight and northwesterly on
Tuesday. We will see more gustiness on Monday with gusts to around
20 knots and there may be a need to hoist some advisories for
Monday. But will let later forecast shifts take a look at that. So
for now we will be headline free.

Weather-wise, clearing skies tonight but becoming cloudy again for
Monday with spotty showers as much cooler air overspreads the
region. Clearing out again for Tuesday.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...JZ/Gillen
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...Adam




000
FXUS63 KMQT 270528
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
128 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Mostly sunny skies across Upr Michigan this aftn in wake of the
front that brought showers and thunderstorms last night. West winds
are breezy and should reach around advy levels this evening on the
Keweenaw as RAP and HRRR soundings show mixed layer building to
depth that will tap into winds from 38-43 kts. This matches up with
the 40 kts at h925 seen on the 12z INL sounding. Pressure rise also
moving in late this aftn should help boost winds. Stronger winds
will end btwn 00z-02z.

Upper level low currently over northern Ontario moves to near James
Bay by 12z Monday. Stronger shortwave rotating around the upper low
is bringing widespread clouds and some showers, especially across
southern Manitoba into parts of northern Ontario. Expect this
shortwave to settle across Upr Michigan later tonight with h85
thermal trough following on Monday. Deep moisture h9-h7 moves over
the area late tonight into Monday. Due to the moisture expect
scattered showers especially over the west half of the cwa with
additional lift provided by upslope over the higher terrain. Another
breezy but much cooler day with highs only reaching to around 60
degrees near Lk Superior and into the 60s south central. Temps along
some shoreline areas of Lk Superior may stay in the 50s.

Despite the cool temps the gusty northwest winds will build waves on
Lk Superior. The result will be a high swim risk for the beaches of
Alger county. Local guidance suggests that a Beach hazard statement
will be needed. Will mention increased swim risk in the Hazardous
weather outlook and through social media.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent mid-upper level troughing across eastern Canada will keep
a nw flow aloft across the Upper Great Lakes through much of next
week resulting in seasonably cool conditions and a few chances for
rain.

Monday night through Tuesday night: Expect conditions to clear out
Monday evening ahead of weak mid-level ridging. Light winds and
generally dry and clear conditions will allow for a couple of chilly
summer nights, with lows in the 40s inland. A few upper 30s readings
for the typical cold spot locations cannot be ruled out Tuesday
night. Highs Tuesday will rebound a bit from Monday`s readings with
inland temps highs mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Wednesday through Sunday: After a return to more seasonable temps
for Wednesday, the passage of a shortwave will push a sharp
trough/cold front across Upper MI Thursday. Model fcst Q-vector
convergence along with a few hundred j/kg of CAPE should allow for
sct shra/isold tsra to develop on Thu. With cyclonic flow and
lingering low-level moisture, a few showers may also be possible on
Friday for mainly the east half. Next weekend (Sat-Sun) looks dry
with confluent flow aloft and building sfc high pressure.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

As gusty W veering NW winds advect cooler and moister air into the
Upr Lks, expect VFR conditions early this mrng to deteriorate into
the MVFR range toward sunrise, faster at the CMX and IWD sites where
the NW flow wl present an upslope wind component. Although there
could also be some showers at these sites as well, no sgnft vsby
restriction is likely. As the veering flow taps drier air late in
the day, some improvement wl occur, with conditions rebounding into
the VFR range. SAW wl see the more persistent lower cigs with
upslope N wind farther fm the dry air source.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

SW winds 20-30 kts shift NW on Monday. Strongest winds on Monday
will be over east half. Winds diminish through rest of week less
than 20 kts as pressure gradient weakens.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 270528
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
128 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Mostly sunny skies across Upr Michigan this aftn in wake of the
front that brought showers and thunderstorms last night. West winds
are breezy and should reach around advy levels this evening on the
Keweenaw as RAP and HRRR soundings show mixed layer building to
depth that will tap into winds from 38-43 kts. This matches up with
the 40 kts at h925 seen on the 12z INL sounding. Pressure rise also
moving in late this aftn should help boost winds. Stronger winds
will end btwn 00z-02z.

Upper level low currently over northern Ontario moves to near James
Bay by 12z Monday. Stronger shortwave rotating around the upper low
is bringing widespread clouds and some showers, especially across
southern Manitoba into parts of northern Ontario. Expect this
shortwave to settle across Upr Michigan later tonight with h85
thermal trough following on Monday. Deep moisture h9-h7 moves over
the area late tonight into Monday. Due to the moisture expect
scattered showers especially over the west half of the cwa with
additional lift provided by upslope over the higher terrain. Another
breezy but much cooler day with highs only reaching to around 60
degrees near Lk Superior and into the 60s south central. Temps along
some shoreline areas of Lk Superior may stay in the 50s.

Despite the cool temps the gusty northwest winds will build waves on
Lk Superior. The result will be a high swim risk for the beaches of
Alger county. Local guidance suggests that a Beach hazard statement
will be needed. Will mention increased swim risk in the Hazardous
weather outlook and through social media.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent mid-upper level troughing across eastern Canada will keep
a nw flow aloft across the Upper Great Lakes through much of next
week resulting in seasonably cool conditions and a few chances for
rain.

Monday night through Tuesday night: Expect conditions to clear out
Monday evening ahead of weak mid-level ridging. Light winds and
generally dry and clear conditions will allow for a couple of chilly
summer nights, with lows in the 40s inland. A few upper 30s readings
for the typical cold spot locations cannot be ruled out Tuesday
night. Highs Tuesday will rebound a bit from Monday`s readings with
inland temps highs mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Wednesday through Sunday: After a return to more seasonable temps
for Wednesday, the passage of a shortwave will push a sharp
trough/cold front across Upper MI Thursday. Model fcst Q-vector
convergence along with a few hundred j/kg of CAPE should allow for
sct shra/isold tsra to develop on Thu. With cyclonic flow and
lingering low-level moisture, a few showers may also be possible on
Friday for mainly the east half. Next weekend (Sat-Sun) looks dry
with confluent flow aloft and building sfc high pressure.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

As gusty W veering NW winds advect cooler and moister air into the
Upr Lks, expect VFR conditions early this mrng to deteriorate into
the MVFR range toward sunrise, faster at the CMX and IWD sites where
the NW flow wl present an upslope wind component. Although there
could also be some showers at these sites as well, no sgnft vsby
restriction is likely. As the veering flow taps drier air late in
the day, some improvement wl occur, with conditions rebounding into
the VFR range. SAW wl see the more persistent lower cigs with
upslope N wind farther fm the dry air source.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

SW winds 20-30 kts shift NW on Monday. Strongest winds on Monday
will be over east half. Winds diminish through rest of week less
than 20 kts as pressure gradient weakens.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KGRR 270508
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
108 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

After a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into early
this evening, the region will dry out.  Other than an isolated
shower over Central Lower Michigan Monday night, we will remain dry
through mid week.  Temperatures will cool down, with highs in the
low and mid 80s monday, followed by 70 to 75 on Tuesday.

The next chance of rain should hold off until Thursday and Thursday
night when another front comes through, otherwise the rest of the
week appears dry.  Temperatures through the latter half of the week
will be near normal with mainly upper 70s to around 80 for daytime
highs.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Have updated to remove the evening rain chance near Jackson as
showers have already departed that area. Considerable high level
cloudiness was impacting the area this evening so increased sky
cover in the grids for the next few hours. These clouds will
eventually thin out/depart later this evening so our mostly clear
fcst for tonight still looks on track - just a tad delayed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Late afternoon and early evening showers and storms will exit the
area, leading to a mainly dry short term.  However a few showers may
clip Central Lower with a short wave passing through.

A cold front will continue to pass through the CWA this afternoon,
exiting early this evening.  We have managed to recover somewhat and
MUCAPE values have pushed toward 2K j/kg along I-94.  Until the
front is through we will see widely scattered storms, but even these
will be SE of the area by 02Z.  Jet dynamics remain weak with 0-6km
shear around 30 KTS...so severe threat remains very low.

Monday will remain warm with highs in the low and mid 80s, but we
will see humidity values drop overnight tonight, so it will be more
comfortable.  It will become fairly windy into the afternoon with
gusts to around 30 mph.

A sharp short wave drops over the region late Monday night.  It`s
timing and the lack of solid moisture should only result in clouds
with perhaps a few light showers over Central Lower.  But the main
impact to this wave will be the cooling northwest upper flow behind
it. And along with the partly sunny skies, daytime temps will only
reach 70 to 75 on Tuesday.  Skies will clear into Tuesday night with
a chilly low in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Overall, rather quiet weather is expected in the long term with near
normal temperatures. A cooler air mass will be in place at the start
of the long term with a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Friday
and Saturday. 850mb temps are forecast to be in the +8 to +12 C
range almost the entire stretch from Wednesday through Sunday.
Temperatures could easily be pushing +20 C or higher this time of
year so nothing close to 90 is expected in the long term. In fact,
we are looking at highs in the upper 70s to around 80, which is near
to slightly below normal.

In terms of sensible weather, high pressure will be in place much of
the time from Wednesday through Sunday. So, dry weather with partly
cloudy skies will dominate. The exception will be in the Thursday
afternoon through Friday afternoon time frame. A cold front will
traverse the area Thursday night and Friday. Low pops in the
forecast with this frontal passage between 20-50 pct. For now only
have showers mentioned as CAPE values off the ECMWF are low on the
order of 200-500 J/KG for the most part in our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Quite a bit of high cloudiness remains across southern Lower
Michigan this evening. Dewpoints also remain high, but should
decrease a bit overnight. TAFs at BTL, AZO, and JXN may drop to
5sm BR early in the period before winds increase later this
morning and vsbys become vfr.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The lake will be a fairly rough area through much of the short term.
We may even need a small craft advisory by Tuesday afternoon into
the evening.

Flow behind the cold front tonight will increase to around 20 knots
Monday causing choppy conditions.  Then the cold advection into late
Monday night should cause the rough conditions to continue.  The
north northwest long fetch flow into Tuesday may produce small craft
conditons, especially south of Grand Haven.  It appears it will take
until late Tuesday night before the lake finally calms down.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meade
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KDTX 270343
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1143 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Tightening
pressure gradient in advance of approaching cold front will lead to
W/WSW wind gusts to around 25 knots during best mixing on Monday.
Winds will then veer to NW with the passage of this front Monday
evening. CIGS will thicken and gradually lower in the wake of this
front, but the chance of MVFR conditions appears to hold off until
06z or beyond attm.

For DTW...W/WSW wind gusts will approach cross wind thresholds in
the 28-30 knot range Monday afternoon, but probably average closer
to 25 knots. Veering winds behind a cold front will usher in lower
CIGS, possibly MVFR, Monday night.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Medium confidence in westerly winds gusting to 25 knots or greater
  tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

DISCUSSION...

The forecast reasoning provided in the updated AFD issued at 1545
UTC remains valid. Did make an adjustment to the pop forecast based
on the latest ARW and NMM, which is chance pops north and west of a
line from Bad Axe to Chelsea. The justification for likely pops
across the south and east continues to be a convectively unstable
thermodynamic profile in the presence of a synoptic boundary. The
area still remains under a marginal designation for severe weather
in swody1, a low end designator that highlights an isolated severe
thunderstorm will be possible. See the SWOMCD. The potential for
precipitation will likely end for all areas in the cwa by 01z this
evening.

Timing of the low level dewpoint gradient or "dry line" has sped up
a good 3 hours it seems in the recent guidance. Timing of the
boundary is through Saginaw by 06z tonight and through all of
southeastern Michigan by 09Z. The change in air mass will yield
surface dewpoints of around 60 degrees at daybreak, dropping into
the middle 50s by the afternoon.  With no true cold front moving
through the area and midlevel temperatures not taking a significant
hit, the pattern will support another warm day for southeastern
Michigan. Higher mixing heights will support an overachiever day
with temperatures Monday taking yet another run at the upper 80s to
90 degrees. Breezy conditions are forecasted with west winds of 30
to 35 mph likely.

The actual cold air advection event will occur Monday night as a
secondary cold front descends southward out of Canada through the
Great Lakes.  The second nocturnal cooling cycle will also throw its
support into the ring. Based on trends did include a chance pop for
the Thumb the latter half of Monday night and for the eastern cwa
during the first part of the day Tuesday. Nothing to get excited
about, just looking at a fair setup for some shallow cold air
advection drizzle or light sprinkles. Any liquid amounts will remain
very low.

Clouds, the main midlevel trough axis, and very developed shortwave
circulations overhead will ensure a cool day on Tuesday. With
northerly onshore flow over the eastern cwa, suspect temperatures
will remain the 60s for the northwastern cwa, likely creeping
into the lower 70s for the remainder of the cwa. This is a good 6
to 10 degrees below seasonal averages, and as a matter of
perspective, nothing significant.

Medium-range deterministic models and ensembles indicate baggy upper
trough for midweek tightening up into next weekend as upper low sets
up south of James Bay. Only notable precip chance at this time
appears to be in the Thursday night/Friday timeframe as a vorticity
lobe and surface front rotate through. Initial look ahead to the 4th
of July weekend: appears largely dry with near to below-normal
temperatures under upper northwest flow and surface high pressure.

MARINE...

Still a chance of thunderstorms into early evening hours, otherwise
favorable boating conditions with light southerly winds 15 knots
or less.  Tomorrow, westerly winds will become elevated in advance
of a stronger cold front. Gusts of 20 to 25 knot are expected along
the nearshore waters, with more stable profiles supporting lesser
winds over the open waters. A small craft advisory will be issued
for Saginaw Bay, Lake Saint Clair and Michigan waters of Lake Erie.
Winds will turn sharply to the northwest as the front drops through
the Central Great Lakes late Monday and early Monday night. Gusts
over much of Lake Huron are expected to reach around 25 knots. The
intrusion of colder air and long northerly fetch over the water will
allow wave heights to potentially build in excess of 4 feet over the
southern basin of Lake Huron. Additional small craft advisories may
be required Monday night into Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY...

Scattered thunderstorms are still anticipated to develop late this
afternoon, ending during early evening hours. The strongest
thunderstorms will produce torrential rainfall, which could exceed
an inch in isolated spots, leading to minor flood concerns in urban
areas.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday FOR LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KDTX 270343
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1143 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Tightening
pressure gradient in advance of approaching cold front will lead to
W/WSW wind gusts to around 25 knots during best mixing on Monday.
Winds will then veer to NW with the passage of this front Monday
evening. CIGS will thicken and gradually lower in the wake of this
front, but the chance of MVFR conditions appears to hold off until
06z or beyond attm.

For DTW...W/WSW wind gusts will approach cross wind thresholds in
the 28-30 knot range Monday afternoon, but probably average closer
to 25 knots. Veering winds behind a cold front will usher in lower
CIGS, possibly MVFR, Monday night.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Medium confidence in westerly winds gusting to 25 knots or greater
  tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

DISCUSSION...

The forecast reasoning provided in the updated AFD issued at 1545
UTC remains valid. Did make an adjustment to the pop forecast based
on the latest ARW and NMM, which is chance pops north and west of a
line from Bad Axe to Chelsea. The justification for likely pops
across the south and east continues to be a convectively unstable
thermodynamic profile in the presence of a synoptic boundary. The
area still remains under a marginal designation for severe weather
in swody1, a low end designator that highlights an isolated severe
thunderstorm will be possible. See the SWOMCD. The potential for
precipitation will likely end for all areas in the cwa by 01z this
evening.

Timing of the low level dewpoint gradient or "dry line" has sped up
a good 3 hours it seems in the recent guidance. Timing of the
boundary is through Saginaw by 06z tonight and through all of
southeastern Michigan by 09Z. The change in air mass will yield
surface dewpoints of around 60 degrees at daybreak, dropping into
the middle 50s by the afternoon.  With no true cold front moving
through the area and midlevel temperatures not taking a significant
hit, the pattern will support another warm day for southeastern
Michigan. Higher mixing heights will support an overachiever day
with temperatures Monday taking yet another run at the upper 80s to
90 degrees. Breezy conditions are forecasted with west winds of 30
to 35 mph likely.

The actual cold air advection event will occur Monday night as a
secondary cold front descends southward out of Canada through the
Great Lakes.  The second nocturnal cooling cycle will also throw its
support into the ring. Based on trends did include a chance pop for
the Thumb the latter half of Monday night and for the eastern cwa
during the first part of the day Tuesday. Nothing to get excited
about, just looking at a fair setup for some shallow cold air
advection drizzle or light sprinkles. Any liquid amounts will remain
very low.

Clouds, the main midlevel trough axis, and very developed shortwave
circulations overhead will ensure a cool day on Tuesday. With
northerly onshore flow over the eastern cwa, suspect temperatures
will remain the 60s for the northwastern cwa, likely creeping
into the lower 70s for the remainder of the cwa. This is a good 6
to 10 degrees below seasonal averages, and as a matter of
perspective, nothing significant.

Medium-range deterministic models and ensembles indicate baggy upper
trough for midweek tightening up into next weekend as upper low sets
up south of James Bay. Only notable precip chance at this time
appears to be in the Thursday night/Friday timeframe as a vorticity
lobe and surface front rotate through. Initial look ahead to the 4th
of July weekend: appears largely dry with near to below-normal
temperatures under upper northwest flow and surface high pressure.

MARINE...

Still a chance of thunderstorms into early evening hours, otherwise
favorable boating conditions with light southerly winds 15 knots
or less.  Tomorrow, westerly winds will become elevated in advance
of a stronger cold front. Gusts of 20 to 25 knot are expected along
the nearshore waters, with more stable profiles supporting lesser
winds over the open waters. A small craft advisory will be issued
for Saginaw Bay, Lake Saint Clair and Michigan waters of Lake Erie.
Winds will turn sharply to the northwest as the front drops through
the Central Great Lakes late Monday and early Monday night. Gusts
over much of Lake Huron are expected to reach around 25 knots. The
intrusion of colder air and long northerly fetch over the water will
allow wave heights to potentially build in excess of 4 feet over the
southern basin of Lake Huron. Additional small craft advisories may
be required Monday night into Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY...

Scattered thunderstorms are still anticipated to develop late this
afternoon, ending during early evening hours. The strongest
thunderstorms will produce torrential rainfall, which could exceed
an inch in isolated spots, leading to minor flood concerns in urban
areas.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday FOR LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270200
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1000 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Skies remain clear across most of our CWA...with the exception of
some cirrus debris across our SE counties from convection
developing along the initial cold front now south of Michigan. To
our NW...leading edge of low/mid cloud associated with the
secondary (stronger) cold front has reached far Western Upper
Michigan right on schedule...and will likely slide into Eastern
Upper Michigan overnight per latest short term models. Still
appears increasing clouds will hold off until after sunrise on
Monday. Going forecast is handling this scenario well...no changes
needed at this time. Temps will be noticeably cooler tonight...
with overnight lows falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s with
less humid conditions as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Cooler and drier air arrive tonight...

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Overview: Stacked low pressure system is spinning over western
Ontario with a front arcing down through the Great Lakes. 18Z
surface analysis suggests front is just about to push into eastern
upper Michigan and extends down through Lake Michigan into SE
Wisconsin, per subtle wind shift and drop in dewpoints across the
boundary. Ahead of the front, abundant cloud cover still remains
over most of the CWA although mixing/thinning of the cloud cover
is starting to unfold and skies have largely cleared in eastern
upper save for a bit of marine stratus across Mackinac county.

Mild but soupy out there, with temps spanning the 70s and
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, but a far cry from the 80s we
were originally planning. Latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests only a
few hundred J/KG MLCAPE values over the E/SE parts of the CWA
although we still have time for late heating and some areas may
yet make a run into the 80s.

Tonight: Still waiting to see what, if anything can pop. Upstream
front/subtle wind shift/dewpoint boundary will be crossing the
region over the next few hours. Low level convergence with the
front is minimal and am very tempted to remove pops altogether at
this point. But we could pop something along the front or along
some sort of differential heating boundary before all is said and
done and most likely over NE lower michigan.

Otherwise, clearing skies tonight as drier air makes its way into
the region. Secondary cold front and wrap around cloud cover will
be rotating down through upper Michigan overnight and may spread
some cloud cover into the northern sections of the CWA late.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

High impact weather potential: none.

Stretch of cooler wx looks to wrap up the month. 500mb ridging to
remain anchored over the Rockies, with troffing in place over
eastern Canada and the ne quarter of the conus. This is not a
terribly active pattern (thank goodness it`s summer). However, there
are shower chances Monday/Mon night as an amplifying shortwave
crosses the northern lakes.

Monday/Mon night...a secondary cold front will cross northern MI in
the morning, veering winds from w to wnw/nw and reinforcing cold
advection. A couple of shortwaves will phase over our heads Monday
night, one arriving from far northern Ontario and the other from
central MN.  These will combine and amplify, helping drive another
trailing front across the region Monday night, with low-level winds
veering further to nne.

The above actually sounds impressive, but at no point do we actually
have a lot of moisture available. Sub-850mb moisture will increase
considerably behind the initial secondary front Monday (see cloud
mass that presently exists n and nw of MN). Anticipate abundant low
clouds already in place in eastern upper MI, and making considerable
progress into northern lower MI during the morning. Southward
progress will stall by midday thanks to strong diurnal heating, and
anticipate at least a partly sunny day in se sections. But
elsewhere, it will be a struggle to break down this cloud deck into
anything less than a thick cu/stratocu deck, even in the afternoon.
Said moisture does look too shallow for much in the way of precip,
though some drizzle is perhaps not out of the question in eastern
upper in the morning.

Late in the day, an input of mid-level moisture and cooler temps
aloft will be seen. This will be a more conducive pattern for shower
development. However, best chances for this will be areas with less
of a marine influence. That includes Ontario (ne of the Sault), and
western upper MI/northern WI. Some of the former could scrape by the
St Mary Valley in the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the
latter will try to work across Lake MI toward nw lower MI in the
evening. We saw this sort of thing on Wednesday of last week, when
decaying showers were aided by cooling/moistening, and were
successful in crossing the cool lake waters. The Ecmwf reflects this
idea. Will have chance pops in some parts of eastern upper/nw lower
MI late Monday. Wonder if some of the models (Nam in particular)
carry too much precip too far eastward overnight. However, in
deference to a still-sharpening digging upper trof, will have a
small chance of showers overnight in part of ne lower MI. Sharp
subsidence arrives in western/northern sections late behind the
amplifying upper trof, and partial clearing will be seen.

Max temps range from upper 60s parts of eastern upper, to lower 80s
near Saginaw Bay. Min temps upper 40s to middle 50s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...quiet. Shortwave ridging in the wake of the
Monday night trof arrives by Tuesday night. Next shortwave will make
some inroads over northern Lake Superior on Wednesday, but not close
enough to have a substantial impact here. These periods all appear
dry, with relatively little in the way of cloud cover. Can guide max
temps a bit above guidance, and min temps a bit below. Overall, our
airmass in relatively cool (850mb temps around 8c), keeping temps
cooler than normal. Max temps will be near 70f to the lower 70s Tue,
mostly middle 70s Wed. Min temps mainly in the low/mid 40s Tue
night, and some stray 30s in interior cold spots are possible.

JZ

High pressure overhead Wednesday night into the first half of
Thursday progresses eastward Thursday afternoon ahead of an area of
low pressure expected to slide through southern Canada, ultimately
swinging a cold front through northern Michigan on Thursday.
Certainly looks to have a very similar feel to today`s cold front as
convection over WI weakens as it moves over Lake Michigan and then
reintensifies east of the area. At any rate...will increase PoPs
Thursday/Thursday night before returning to mainly dry and
seasonable conditions for next weekend. High temperatures throughout
the extended period range through the 70s with overnight lows in the
50s.

Gillen

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Skies will remain clear thru tonight into early Monday before low
VFR cigs develop by around late morning with the arrival of a
secondary (stronger) cold front and upper level trough. W/SW winds
below 10 kts tonight will shift to the NW at around 10 kts on
Monday with FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Gusty SW to W winds remain over the lakes this afternoon although
sustained small craft advisory conditions have not really
materialized at this juncture. Some gustiness will persist, but
plan to cancel advisories with the 5 PM forecast issuance.

Winds will veer more westerly tonight and northwesterly on
Tuesday. We will see more gustiness on Monday with gusts to around
20 knots and there may be a need to hoist some advisories for
Monday. But will let later forecast shifts take a look at that. So
for now we will be headline free.

Weather-wise, clearing skies tonight but becoming cloudy again for
Monday with spotty showers as much cooler air overspreads the
region. Clearing out again for Tuesday.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...JZ/Gillen
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...Adam




000
FXUS63 KGRR 270123
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
923 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

After a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into early
this evening, the region will dry out.  Other than an isolated
shower over Central Lower Michigan Monday night, we will remain dry
through mid week.  Temperatures will cool down, with highs in the
low and mid 80s monday, followed by 70 to 75 on Tuesday.

The next chance of rain should hold off until Thursday and Thursday
night when another front comes through, otherwise the rest of the
week appears dry.  Temperatures through the latter half of the week
will be near normal with mainly upper 70s to around 80 for daytime
highs.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Have updated to remove the evening rain chance near Jackson as
showers have already departed that area. Considerable high level
cloudiness was impacting the area this evening so increased sky
cover in the grids for the next few hours. These clouds will
eventually thin out/depart later this evening so our mostly clear
fcst for tonight still looks on track - just a tad delayed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Late afternoon and early evening showers and storms will exit the
area, leading to a mainly dry short term.  However a few showers may
clip Central Lower with a short wave passing through.

A cold front will continue to pass through the CWA this afternoon,
exiting early this evening.  We have managed to recover somewhat and
MUCAPE values have pushed toward 2K j/kg along I-94.  Until the
front is through we will see widely scattered storms, but even these
will be SE of the area by 02Z.  Jet dynamics remain weak with 0-6km
shear around 30 KTS...so severe threat remains very low.

Monday will remain warm with highs in the low and mid 80s, but we
will see humidity values drop overnight tonight, so it will be more
comfortable.  It will become fairly windy into the afternoon with
gusts to around 30 mph.

A sharp short wave drops over the region late Monday night.  It`s
timing and the lack of solid moisture should only result in clouds
with perhaps a few light showers over Central Lower.  But the main
impact to this wave will be the cooling northwest upper flow behind
it. And along with the partly sunny skies, daytime temps will only
reach 70 to 75 on Tuesday.  Skies will clear into Tuesday night with
a chilly low in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Overall, rather quiet weather is expected in the long term with near
normal temperatures. A cooler air mass will be in place at the start
of the long term with a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Friday
and Saturday. 850mb temps are forecast to be in the +8 to +12 C
range almost the entire stretch from Wednesday through Sunday.
Temperatures could easily be pushing +20 C or higher this time of
year so nothing close to 90 is expected in the long term. In fact,
we are looking at highs in the upper 70s to around 80, which is near
to slightly below normal.

In terms of sensible weather, high pressure will be in place much of
the time from Wednesday through Sunday. So, dry weather with partly
cloudy skies will dominate. The exception will be in the Thursday
afternoon through Friday afternoon time frame. A cold front will
traverse the area Thursday night and Friday. Low pops in the
forecast with this frontal passage between 20-50 pct. For now only
have showers mentioned as CAPE values off the ECMWF are low on the
order of 200-500 J/KG for the most part in our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 753 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR weather is expected tonight and Monday although can`t
completely rule out some patchy fog forming late tonight since
dew points are still in the 60s. However winds should stay up just
enough to limit that possibility so will not include any vsbys
restrictions in the TAFs at this time.

The main story on Monday will be the winds. Westerly winds will
become gusty at 15-25 kts by noon. SCT-BKN clouds around 5000 ft
AGL will drop in from the north late in the day as a cold front
approaches, with west winds turning more northwesterly.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The lake will be a fairly rough area through much of the short term.
We may even need a small craft advisory by Tuesday afternoon into
the evening.

Flow behind the cold front tonight will increase to around 20 knots
Monday causing choppy conditions.  Then the cold advection into late
Monday night should cause the rough conditions to continue.  The
north northwest long fetch flow into Tuesday may produce small craft
conditons, especially south of Grand Haven.  It appears it will take
until late Tuesday night before the lake finally calms down.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meade
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Meade
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 262353
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
753 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

After a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into early
this evening, the region will dry out.  Other than an isolated
shower over Central Lower Michigan Monday night, we will remain dry
through mid week.  Temperatures will cool down, with highs in the
low and mid 80s monday, followed by 70 to 75 on Tuesday.

The next chance of rain should hold off until Thursday and Thursday
night when another front comes through, otherwise the rest of the
week appears dry.  Temperatures through the latter half of the week
will be near normal with mainly upper 70s to around 80 for daytime
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Late afternoon and early evening showers and storms will exit the
area, leading to a mainly dry short term.  However a few showers may
clip Central Lower with a short wave passing through.

A cold front will continue to pass through the CWA this afternoon,
exiting early this evening.  We have managed to recover somewhat and
MUCAPE values have pushed toward 2K j/kg along I-94.  Until the
front is through we will see widely scattered storms, but even these
will be SE of the area by 02Z.  Jet dynamics remain weak with 0-6km
shear around 30 KTS...so severe threat remains very low.

Monday will remain warm with highs in the low and mid 80s, but we
will see humidity values drop overnight tonight, so it will be more
comfortable.  It will become fairly windy into the afternoon with
gusts to around 30 mph.

A sharp short wave drops over the region late Monday night.  It`s
timing and the lack of solid moisture should only result in clouds
with perhaps a few light showers over Central Lower.  But the main
impact to this wave will be the cooling northwest upper flow behind
it. And along with the partly sunny skies, daytime temps will only
reach 70 to 75 on Tuesday.  Skies will clear into Tuesday night with
a chilly low in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Overall, rather quiet weather is expected in the long term with near
normal temperatures. A cooler air mass will be in place at the start
of the long term with a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Friday
and Saturday. 850mb temps are forecast to be in the +8 to +12 C
range almost the entire stretch from Wednesday through Sunday.
Temperatures could easily be pushing +20 C or higher this time of
year so nothing close to 90 is expected in the long term. In fact,
we are looking at highs in the upper 70s to around 80, which is near
to slightly below normal.

In terms of sensible weather, high pressure will be in place much of
the time from Wednesday through Sunday. So, dry weather with partly
cloudy skies will dominate. The exception will be in the Thursday
afternoon through Friday afternoon time frame. A cold front will
traverse the area Thursday night and Friday. Low pops in the
forecast with this frontal passage between 20-50 pct. For now only
have showers mentioned as CAPE values off the ECMWF are low on the
order of 200-500 J/KG for the most part in our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 753 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR weather is expected tonight and Monday although can`t
completely rule out some patchy fog forming late tonight since
dew points are still in the 60s. However winds should stay up just
enough to limit that possibility so will not include any vsbys
restrictions in the TAFs at this time.

The main story on Monday will be the winds. Westerly winds will
become gusty at 15-25 kts by noon. SCT-BKN clouds around 5000 ft
AGL will drop in from the north late in the day as a cold front
approaches, with west winds turning more northwesterly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The lake will be a fairly rough area through much of the short term.
We may even need a small craft advisory by Tuesday afternoon into
the evening.

Flow behind the cold front tonight will increase to around 20 knots
Monday causing choppy conditions.  Then the cold advection into late
Monday night should cause the rough conditions to continue.  The
north northwest long fetch flow into Tuesday may produce small craft
conditons, especially south of Grand Haven.  It appears it will take
until late Tuesday night before the lake finally calms down.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Meade
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 262353
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
753 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

After a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into early
this evening, the region will dry out.  Other than an isolated
shower over Central Lower Michigan Monday night, we will remain dry
through mid week.  Temperatures will cool down, with highs in the
low and mid 80s monday, followed by 70 to 75 on Tuesday.

The next chance of rain should hold off until Thursday and Thursday
night when another front comes through, otherwise the rest of the
week appears dry.  Temperatures through the latter half of the week
will be near normal with mainly upper 70s to around 80 for daytime
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Late afternoon and early evening showers and storms will exit the
area, leading to a mainly dry short term.  However a few showers may
clip Central Lower with a short wave passing through.

A cold front will continue to pass through the CWA this afternoon,
exiting early this evening.  We have managed to recover somewhat and
MUCAPE values have pushed toward 2K j/kg along I-94.  Until the
front is through we will see widely scattered storms, but even these
will be SE of the area by 02Z.  Jet dynamics remain weak with 0-6km
shear around 30 KTS...so severe threat remains very low.

Monday will remain warm with highs in the low and mid 80s, but we
will see humidity values drop overnight tonight, so it will be more
comfortable.  It will become fairly windy into the afternoon with
gusts to around 30 mph.

A sharp short wave drops over the region late Monday night.  It`s
timing and the lack of solid moisture should only result in clouds
with perhaps a few light showers over Central Lower.  But the main
impact to this wave will be the cooling northwest upper flow behind
it. And along with the partly sunny skies, daytime temps will only
reach 70 to 75 on Tuesday.  Skies will clear into Tuesday night with
a chilly low in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Overall, rather quiet weather is expected in the long term with near
normal temperatures. A cooler air mass will be in place at the start
of the long term with a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Friday
and Saturday. 850mb temps are forecast to be in the +8 to +12 C
range almost the entire stretch from Wednesday through Sunday.
Temperatures could easily be pushing +20 C or higher this time of
year so nothing close to 90 is expected in the long term. In fact,
we are looking at highs in the upper 70s to around 80, which is near
to slightly below normal.

In terms of sensible weather, high pressure will be in place much of
the time from Wednesday through Sunday. So, dry weather with partly
cloudy skies will dominate. The exception will be in the Thursday
afternoon through Friday afternoon time frame. A cold front will
traverse the area Thursday night and Friday. Low pops in the
forecast with this frontal passage between 20-50 pct. For now only
have showers mentioned as CAPE values off the ECMWF are low on the
order of 200-500 J/KG for the most part in our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 753 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR weather is expected tonight and Monday although can`t
completely rule out some patchy fog forming late tonight since
dew points are still in the 60s. However winds should stay up just
enough to limit that possibility so will not include any vsbys
restrictions in the TAFs at this time.

The main story on Monday will be the winds. Westerly winds will
become gusty at 15-25 kts by noon. SCT-BKN clouds around 5000 ft
AGL will drop in from the north late in the day as a cold front
approaches, with west winds turning more northwesterly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The lake will be a fairly rough area through much of the short term.
We may even need a small craft advisory by Tuesday afternoon into
the evening.

Flow behind the cold front tonight will increase to around 20 knots
Monday causing choppy conditions.  Then the cold advection into late
Monday night should cause the rough conditions to continue.  The
north northwest long fetch flow into Tuesday may produce small craft
conditons, especially south of Grand Haven.  It appears it will take
until late Tuesday night before the lake finally calms down.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Meade
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KMQT 262323
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
723 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Mostly sunny skies across Upr Michigan this aftn in wake of the
front that brought showers and thunderstorms last night. West winds
are breezy and should reach around advy levels this evening on the
Keweenaw as RAP and HRRR soundings show mixed layer building to
depth that will tap into winds from 38-43 kts. This matches up with
the 40 kts at h925 seen on the 12z INL sounding. Pressure rise also
moving in late this aftn should help boost winds. Stronger winds
will end btwn 00z-02z.

Upper level low currently over northern Ontario moves to near James
Bay by 12z Monday. Stronger shortwave rotating around the upper low
is bringing widespread clouds and some showers, especially across
southern Manitoba into parts of northern Ontario. Expect this
shortwave to settle across Upr Michigan later tonight with h85
thermal trough following on Monday. Deep moisture h9-h7 moves over
the area late tonight into Monday. Due to the moisture expect
scattered showers especially over the west half of the cwa with
additional lift provided by upslope over the higher terrain. Another
breezy but much cooler day with highs only reaching to around 60
degrees near Lk Superior and into the 60s south central. Temps along
some shoreline areas of Lk Superior may stay in the 50s.

Despite the cool temps the gusty northwest winds will build waves on
Lk Superior. The result will be a high swim risk for the beaches of
Alger county. Local guidance suggests that a Beach hazard statement
will be needed. Will mention increased swim risk in the Hazardous
weather outlook and through social media.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent mid-upper level troughing across eastern Canada will keep
a nw flow aloft across the Upper Great Lakes through much of next
week resulting in seasonably cool conditions and a few chances for
rain.

Monday night through Tuesday night: Expect conditions to clear out
Monday evening ahead of weak mid-level ridging. Light winds and
generally dry and clear conditions will allow for a couple of chilly
summer nights, with lows in the 40s inland. A few upper 30s readings
for the typical cold spot locations cannot be ruled out Tuesday
night. Highs Tuesday will rebound a bit from Monday`s readings with
inland temps highs mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Wednesday through Sunday: After a return to more seasonable temps
for Wednesday, the passage of a shortwave will push a sharp
trough/cold front across Upper MI Thursday. Model fcst Q-vector
convergence along with a few hundred j/kg of CAPE should allow for
sct shra/isold tsra to develop on Thu. With cyclonic flow and
lingering low-level moisture, a few showers may also be possible on
Friday for mainly the east half. Next weekend (Sat-Sun) looks dry
with confluent flow aloft and building sfc high pressure.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 722 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

As gusty W veering NW winds advect cooler and moister air into Upr
Lks, expect VFR conditions thru this evng to deteriorate into the
MVFR range late tngt, faster at the CMX and IWD sites where the NW
flow wl present an upslope wind component. Although there could also
be some showers at these sites as well, no sgnft vsby restriction is
likely. As the veering flow taps drier air late in the day, some
improvement wl occur, but improvement to VFR cigs is not likely
until after 28/00Z.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

SW winds 20-30 kts shift NW on Monday. Strongest winds on Monday
will be over east half. Winds diminish through rest of week less
than 20 kts as pressure gradient weakens.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ001-003.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 262323
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
723 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Mostly sunny skies across Upr Michigan this aftn in wake of the
front that brought showers and thunderstorms last night. West winds
are breezy and should reach around advy levels this evening on the
Keweenaw as RAP and HRRR soundings show mixed layer building to
depth that will tap into winds from 38-43 kts. This matches up with
the 40 kts at h925 seen on the 12z INL sounding. Pressure rise also
moving in late this aftn should help boost winds. Stronger winds
will end btwn 00z-02z.

Upper level low currently over northern Ontario moves to near James
Bay by 12z Monday. Stronger shortwave rotating around the upper low
is bringing widespread clouds and some showers, especially across
southern Manitoba into parts of northern Ontario. Expect this
shortwave to settle across Upr Michigan later tonight with h85
thermal trough following on Monday. Deep moisture h9-h7 moves over
the area late tonight into Monday. Due to the moisture expect
scattered showers especially over the west half of the cwa with
additional lift provided by upslope over the higher terrain. Another
breezy but much cooler day with highs only reaching to around 60
degrees near Lk Superior and into the 60s south central. Temps along
some shoreline areas of Lk Superior may stay in the 50s.

Despite the cool temps the gusty northwest winds will build waves on
Lk Superior. The result will be a high swim risk for the beaches of
Alger county. Local guidance suggests that a Beach hazard statement
will be needed. Will mention increased swim risk in the Hazardous
weather outlook and through social media.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent mid-upper level troughing across eastern Canada will keep
a nw flow aloft across the Upper Great Lakes through much of next
week resulting in seasonably cool conditions and a few chances for
rain.

Monday night through Tuesday night: Expect conditions to clear out
Monday evening ahead of weak mid-level ridging. Light winds and
generally dry and clear conditions will allow for a couple of chilly
summer nights, with lows in the 40s inland. A few upper 30s readings
for the typical cold spot locations cannot be ruled out Tuesday
night. Highs Tuesday will rebound a bit from Monday`s readings with
inland temps highs mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Wednesday through Sunday: After a return to more seasonable temps
for Wednesday, the passage of a shortwave will push a sharp
trough/cold front across Upper MI Thursday. Model fcst Q-vector
convergence along with a few hundred j/kg of CAPE should allow for
sct shra/isold tsra to develop on Thu. With cyclonic flow and
lingering low-level moisture, a few showers may also be possible on
Friday for mainly the east half. Next weekend (Sat-Sun) looks dry
with confluent flow aloft and building sfc high pressure.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 722 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

As gusty W veering NW winds advect cooler and moister air into Upr
Lks, expect VFR conditions thru this evng to deteriorate into the
MVFR range late tngt, faster at the CMX and IWD sites where the NW
flow wl present an upslope wind component. Although there could also
be some showers at these sites as well, no sgnft vsby restriction is
likely. As the veering flow taps drier air late in the day, some
improvement wl occur, but improvement to VFR cigs is not likely
until after 28/00Z.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

SW winds 20-30 kts shift NW on Monday. Strongest winds on Monday
will be over east half. Winds diminish through rest of week less
than 20 kts as pressure gradient weakens.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ001-003.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KDTX 262321
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016


.AVIATION...

Other than brief shield of light rain associated with cold pool
north of active convection to the south, expect a quiet and dry
forecast period. Even within this area, which will affect I-94
terminals for an hour or two, VFR conditions will prevail. Skies
will clear overnight and remain so the rest of the forecast. A tight
pressure gradient in advance of cold front will allow for wind gusts
of 25 knots or more during best mixing on Monday. Wind direction
will be WSW.

For DTW...VFR conditions will prevail, with just an hour or two of
light rain early in the forecast. W/WSW wind gusts will approach
cross wind thresholds Monday afternoon, but probably average closer
to 25 knots.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Medium confidence in westerly winds gusting to 25 knots or greater
  tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

DISCUSSION...

The forecast reasoning provided in the updated AFD issued at 1545
UTC remains valid. Did make an adjustment to the pop forecast based
on the latest ARW and NMM, which is chance pops north and west of a
line from Bad Axe to Chelsea. The justification for likely pops
across the south and east continues to be a convectively unstable
thermodynamic profile in the presence of a synoptic boundary. The
area still remains under a marginal designation for severe weather
in swody1, a low end designator that highlights an isolated severe
thunderstorm will be possible. See the SWOMCD. The potential for
precipitation will likely end for all areas in the cwa by 01z this
evening.

Timing of the low level dewpoint gradient or "dry line" has sped up
a good 3 hours it seems in the recent guidance. Timing of the
boundary is through Saginaw by 06z tonight and through all of
southeastern Michigan by 09Z. The change in air mass will yield
surface dewpoints of around 60 degrees at daybreak, dropping into
the middle 50s by the afternoon.  With no true cold front moving
through the area and midlevel temperatures not taking a significant
hit, the pattern will support another warm day for southeastern
Michigan. Higher mixing heights will support an overachiever day
with temperatures Monday taking yet another run at the upper 80s to
90 degrees. Breezy conditions are forecasted with west winds of 30
to 35 mph likely.

The actual cold air advection event will occur Monday night as a
secondary cold front descends southward out of Canada through the
Great Lakes.  The second nocturnal cooling cycle will also throw its
support into the ring. Based on trends did include a chance pop for
the Thumb the latter half of Monday night and for the eastern cwa
during the first part of the day Tuesday. Nothing to get excited
about, just looking at a fair setup for some shallow cold air
advection drizzle or light sprinkles. Any liquid amounts will remain
very low.

Clouds, the main midlevel trough axis, and very developed shortwave
circulations overhead will ensure a cool day on Tuesday. With
northerly onshore flow over the eastern cwa, suspect temperatures
will remain the 60s for the northwastern cwa, likely creeping
into the lower 70s for the remainder of the cwa. This is a good 6
to 10 degrees below seasonal averages, and as a matter of
perspective, nothing significant.

Medium-range deterministic models and ensembles indicate baggy upper
trough for midweek tightening up into next weekend as upper low sets
up south of James Bay. Only notable precip chance at this time
appears to be in the Thursday night/Friday timeframe as a vorticity
lobe and surface front rotate through. Initial look ahead to the 4th
of July weekend: appears largely dry with near to below-normal
temperatures under upper northwest flow and surface high pressure.

MARINE...

Still a chance of thunderstorms into early evening hours, otherwise
favorable boating conditions with light southerly winds 15 knots
or less.  Tomorrow, westerly winds will become elevated in advance
of a stronger cold front. Gusts of 20 to 25 knot are expected along
the nearshore waters, with more stable profiles supporting lesser
winds over the open waters. A small craft advisory will be issued
for Saginaw Bay, Lake Saint Clair and Michigan waters of Lake Erie.
Winds will turn sharply to the northwest as the front drops through
the Central Great Lakes late Monday and early Monday night. Gusts
over much of Lake Huron are expected to reach around 25 knots. The
intrusion of colder air and long northerly fetch over the water will
allow wave heights to potentially build in excess of 4 feet over the
southern basin of Lake Huron. Additional small craft advisories may
be required Monday night into Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY...

Scattered thunderstorms are still anticipated to develop late this
afternoon, ending during early evening hours. The strongest
thunderstorms will produce torrential rainfall, which could exceed
an inch in isolated spots, leading to minor flood concerns in urban
areas.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday FOR LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday FOR LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KAPX 262300
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
700 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Cooler and drier air arrive tonight...

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Overview: Stacked low pressure system is spinning over western
Ontario with a front arcing down through the Great Lakes. 18Z
surface analysis suggests front is just about to push into eastern
upper Michigan and extends down through Lake Michigan into SE
Wisconsin, per subtle wind shift and drop in dewpoints across the
boundary. Ahead of the front, abundant cloud cover still remains
over most of the CWA although mixing/thinning of the cloud cover
is starting to unfold and skies have largely cleared in eastern
upper save for a bit of marine stratus across Mackinac county.

Mild but soupy out there, with temps spanning the 70s and
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, but a far cry from the 80s we
were originally planning. Latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests only a
few hundred J/KG MLCAPE values over the E/SE parts of the CWA
although we still have time for late heating and some areas may
yet make a run into the 80s.

Tonight: Still waiting to see what, if anything can pop. Upstream
front/subtle wind shift/dewpoint boundary will be crossing the
region over the next few hours. Low level convergence with the
front is minimal and am very tempted to remove pops altogether at
this point. But we could pop something along the front or along
some sort of differential heating boundary before all is said and
done and most likely over NE lower michigan.

Otherwise, clearing skies tonight as drier air makes its way into
the region. Secondary cold front and wrap around cloud cover will
be rotating down through upper Michigan overnight and may spread
some cloud cover into the northern sections of the CWA late.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

High impact weather potential: none.

Stretch of cooler wx looks to wrap up the month. 500mb ridging to
remain anchored over the Rockies, with troffing in place over
eastern Canada and the ne quarter of the conus. This is not a
terribly active pattern (thank goodness it`s summer). However, there
are shower chances Monday/Mon night as an amplifying shortwave
crosses the northern lakes.

Monday/Mon night...a secondary cold front will cross northern MI in
the morning, veering winds from w to wnw/nw and reinforcing cold
advection. A couple of shortwaves will phase over our heads Monday
night, one arriving from far northern Ontario and the other from
central MN.  These will combine and amplify, helping drive another
trailing front across the region Monday night, with low-level winds
veering further to nne.

The above actually sounds impressive, but at no point do we actually
have a lot of moisture available. Sub-850mb moisture will increase
considerably behind the initial secondary front Monday (see cloud
mass that presently exists n and nw of MN). Anticipate abundant low
clouds already in place in eastern upper MI, and making considerable
progress into northern lower MI during the morning. Southward
progress will stall by midday thanks to strong diurnal heating, and
anticipate at least a partly sunny day in se sections. But
elsewhere, it will be a struggle to break down this cloud deck into
anything less than a thick cu/stratocu deck, even in the afternoon.
Said moisture does look too shallow for much in the way of precip,
though some drizzle is perhaps not out of the question in eastern
upper in the morning.

Late in the day, an input of mid-level moisture and cooler temps
aloft will be seen. This will be a more conducive pattern for shower
development. However, best chances for this will be areas with less
of a marine influence. That includes Ontario (ne of the Sault), and
western upper MI/northern WI. Some of the former could scrape by the
St Mary Valley in the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the
latter will try to work across Lake MI toward nw lower MI in the
evening. We saw this sort of thing on Wednesday of last week, when
decaying showers were aided by cooling/moistening, and were
successful in crossing the cool lake waters. The Ecmwf reflects this
idea. Will have chance pops in some parts of eastern upper/nw lower
MI late Monday. Wonder if some of the models (Nam in particular)
carry too much precip too far eastward overnight. However, in
deference to a still-sharpening digging upper trof, will have a
small chance of showers overnight in part of ne lower MI. Sharp
subsidence arrives in western/northern sections late behind the
amplifying upper trof, and partial clearing will be seen.

Max temps range from upper 60s parts of eastern upper, to lower 80s
near Saginaw Bay. Min temps upper 40s to middle 50s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...quiet. Shortwave ridging in the wake of the
Monday night trof arrives by Tuesday night. Next shortwave will make
some inroads over northern Lake Superior on Wednesday, but not close
enough to have a substantial impact here. These periods all appear
dry, with relatively little in the way of cloud cover. Can guide max
temps a bit above guidance, and min temps a bit below. Overall, our
airmass in relatively cool (850mb temps around 8c), keeping temps
cooler than normal. Max temps will be near 70f to the lower 70s Tue,
mostly middle 70s Wed. Min temps mainly in the low/mid 40s Tue
night, and some stray 30s in interior cold spots are possible.

JZ

High pressure overhead Wednesday night into the first half of
Thursday progresses eastward Thursday afternoon ahead of an area of
low pressure expected to slide through southern Canada, ultimately
swinging a cold front through northern Michigan on Thursday.
Certainly looks to have a very similar feel to today`s cold front as
convection over WI weakens as it moves over Lake Michigan and then
reintensifies east of the area. At any rate...will increase PoPs
Thursday/Thursday night before returning to mainly dry and
seasonable conditions for next weekend. High temperatures throughout
the extended period range through the 70s with overnight lows in the
50s.

Gillen

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Skies will remain clear thru tonight into early Monday before low
VFR cigs develop by around late morning with the arrival of a
secondary (stronger) cold front and upper level trough. W/SW winds
below 10 kts tonight will shift to the NW at around 10 kts on
Monday with FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Gusty SW to W winds remain over the lakes this afternoon although
sustained small craft advisory conditions have not really
materialized at this juncture. Some gustiness will persist, but
plan to cancel advisories with the 5 PM forecast issuance.

Winds will veer more westerly tonight and northwesterly on
Tuesday. We will see more gustiness on Monday with gusts to around
20 knots and there may be a need to hoist some advisories for
Monday. But will let later forecast shifts take a look at that. So
for now we will be headline free.

Weather-wise, clearing skies tonight but becoming cloudy again for
Monday with spotty showers as much cooler air overspreads the
region. Clearing out again for Tuesday.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...JZ/Gillen
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...Adam




000
FXUS63 KDTX 261946
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
346 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The forecast reasoning provided in the updated AFD issued at 1545
UTC remains valid. Did make an adjustment to the pop forecast based
on the latest ARW and NMM, which is chance pops north and west of a
line from Bad Axe to Chelsea. The justification for likely pops
across the south and east continues to be a convectively unstable
thermodynamic profile in the presence of a synoptic boundary. The
area still remains under a marginal designation for severe weather
in swody1, a low end designator that highlights an isolated severe
thunderstorm will be possible. See the SWOMCD. The potential for
precipitation will likely end for all areas in the cwa by 01z this
evening.

Timing of the low level dewpoint gradient or "dry line" has sped up
a good 3 hours it seems in the recent guidance. Timing of the
boundary is through Saginaw by 06z tonight and through all of
southeastern Michigan by 09Z. The change in air mass will yield
surface dewpoints of around 60 degrees at daybreak, dropping into
the middle 50s by the afternoon.  With no true cold front moving
through the area and midlevel temperatures not taking a significant
hit, the pattern will support another warm day for southeastern
Michigan. Higher mixing heights will support an overachiever day
with temperatures Monday taking yet another run at the upper 80s to
90 degrees. Breezy conditions are forecasted with west winds of 30
to 35 mph likely.

The actual cold air advection event will occur Monday night as a
secondary cold front descends southward out of Canada through the
Great Lakes.  The second nocturnal cooling cycle will also throw its
support into the ring. Based on trends did include a chance pop for
the Thumb the latter half of Monday night and for the eastern cwa
during the first part of the day Tuesday. Nothing to get excited
about, just looking at a fair setup for some shallow cold air
advection drizzle or light sprinkles. Any liquid amounts will remain
very low.

Clouds, the main midlevel trough axis, and very developed shortwave
circulations overhead will ensure a cool day on Tuesday. With
northerly onshore flow over the eastern cwa, suspect temperatures
will remain the 60s for the northwastern cwa, likely creeping
into the lower 70s for the remainder of the cwa. This is a good 6
to 10 degrees below seasonal averages, and as a matter of
perspective, nothing significant.

Medium-range deterministic models and ensembles indicate baggy upper
trough for midweek tightening up into next weekend as upper low sets
up south of James Bay. Only notable precip chance at this time
appears to be in the Thursday night/Friday timeframe as a vorticity
lobe and surface front rotate through. Initial look ahead to the 4th
of July weekend: appears largely dry with near to below-normal
temperatures under upper northwest flow and surface high pressure.

&&

.MARINE...

Still a chance of thunderstorms into early evening hours, otherwise
favorable boating conditions with light southerly winds 15 knots
or less.  Tomorrow, westerly winds will become elevated in advance
of a stronger cold front. Gusts of 20 to 25 knot are expected along
the nearshore waters, with more stable profiles supporting lesser
winds over the open waters. A small craft advisory will be issued
for Saginaw Bay, Lake Saint Clair and Michigan waters of Lake Erie.
Winds will turn sharply to the northwest as the front drops through
the Central Great Lakes late Monday and early Monday night. Gusts
over much of Lake Huron are expected to reach around 25 knots. The
intrusion of colder air and long northerly fetch over the water will
allow wave heights to potentially build in excess of 4 feet over the
southern basin of Lake Huron. Additional small craft advisories may
be required Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered thunderstorms are still anticipated to develop late this
afternoon, ending during early evening hours. The strongest
thunderstorms will produce torrential rainfall, which could exceed
an inch in isolated spots, leading to minor flood concerns in urban
areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

AVIATION...

Weakly forced environment and generally low instability making for
chaotic pattern of showers and isolated-scattered thunderstorms
expected. The detroit airspace is the most unstable and stands the
best chance of seeing thunderstorm activity during the early
afternoon hours. Not sure of the amount of shower/thunderstorm
redevelopment-coverage during the late afternoon hours, but any
additional activity should be over by sunset, with mostly clear
skies and light winds in place tonight.

Good diurnal mixing tomorrow with westerly winds expected to gust to
25 knots or greater by early afternoon under mostly clear skies.

For DTW... Thunderstorms expected to impact Detroit airspace
early this afternoon as we are tracking activity along the
southern Michigan border, with more uncertainty late this
afternoon in amount of additional coverage. Looks like westerly
crosswind tomorrow, as gusts expected to reach to at least 25
knots during the afternoon as boundary layer extends well above
5000 kft.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Medium confidence in a period of thunderstorms this afternoon.

* Low to medium confidence in ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon.

* Medium confidence in westerly winds gusting to 25 knots or
  greater tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday FOR LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday FOR LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF
AVIATION.....SF


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.




000
FXUS63 KMQT 261938
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
338 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Mostly sunny skies across Upr Michigan this aftn in wake of the
front that brought showers and thunderstorms last night. West winds
are breezy and should reach around advy levels this evening on the
Keweenaw as RAP and HRRR soundings show mixed layer building to
depth that will tap into winds from 38-43 kts. This matches up with
the 40 kts at h925 seen on the 12z INL sounding. Pressure rise also
moving in late this aftn should help boost winds. Stronger winds
will end btwn 00z-02z.

Upper level low currently over northern Ontario moves to near James
Bay by 12z Monday. Stronger shortwave rotating around the upper low
is bringing widespread clouds and some showers, especially across
southern Manitoba into parts of northern Ontario. Expect this
shortwave to settle across Upr Michigan later tonight with h85
thermal trough following on Monday. Deep moisture h9-h7 moves over
the area late tonight into Monday. Due to the moisture expect
scattered showers especially over the west half of the cwa with
additional lift provided by upslope over the higher terrain. Another
breezy but much cooler day with highs only reaching to around 60
degrees near Lk Superior and into the 60s south central. Temps along
some shoreline areas of Lk Superior may stay in the 50s.

Despite the cool temps the gusty northwest winds will build waves on
Lk Superior. The result will be a high swim risk for the beaches of
Alger county. Local guidance suggests that a Beach hazard statement
will be needed. Will mention increased swim risk in the Hazardous
weather outlook and through social media.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent mid-upper level troughing across eastern Canada will keep
a nw flow aloft across the Upper Great Lakes through much of next
week resulting in seasonably cool conditions and a few chances for
rain.

Monday night through Tuesday night: Expect conditions to clear out
Monday evening ahead of weak mid-level ridging. Light winds and
generally dry and clear conditions will allow for a couple of chilly
summer nights, with lows in the 40s inland. A few upper 30s readings
for the typical cold spot locations cannot be ruled out Tuesday
night. Highs Tuesday will rebound a bit from Monday`s readings with
inland temps highs mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Wednesday through Sunday: After a return to more seasonable temps
for Wednesday, the passage of a shortwave will push a sharp
trough/cold front across Upper MI Thursday. Model fcst Q-vector
convergence along with a few hundred j/kg of CAPE should allow for
sct shra/isold tsra to develop on Thu. With cyclonic flow and
lingering low-level moisture, a few showers may also be possible on
Friday for mainly the east half. Next weekend (Sat-Sun) looks dry
with confluent flow aloft and building sfc high pressure.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 148 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions expected into this evening at
all TAF sites. West winds will remain gusty especially at CMX and
SAW. Cold air advection behind low pressure system crossing Northern
Ontario will bring MVFR cigs across all the TAF sites overnight
tonight into Monday. Some showers are possible but significant vsby
reduction is not expected.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

SW winds 20-30 kts shift NW on Monday. Strongest winds on Monday
will be over east half. Winds diminish through rest of week less
than 20 kts as pressure gradient weakens.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ001-003.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KGRR 261930
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

After a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into early
this evening, the region will dry out.  Other than an isolated
shower over Central Lower Michigan Monday night, we will remain dry
through mid week.  Temperatures will cool down, with highs in the
low and mid 80s monday, followed by 70 to 75 on Tuesday.

The next chance of rain should hold off until Thursday and Thursday
night when another front comes through, otherwise the rest of the
week appears dry.  Temperatures through the latter half of the week
will be near normal with mainly upper 70s to around 80 for daytime
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Late afternoon and early evening showers and storms will exit the
area, leading to a mainly dry short term.  However a few showers may
clip Central Lower with a short wave passing through.

A cold front will continue to pass through the CWA this afternoon,
exiting early this evening.  We have managed to recover somewhat and
MUCAPE values have pushed toward 2K j/kg along I-94.  Until the
front is through we will see widely scattered storms, but even these
will be SE of the area by 02Z.  Jet dynamics remain weak with 0-6km
shear around 30 KTS...so severe threat remains very low.

Monday will remain warm with highs in the low and mid 80s, but we
will see humidity values drop overnight tonight, so it will be more
comfortable.  It will become fairly windy into the afternoon with
gusts to around 30 mph.

A sharp short wave drops over the region late Monday night.  It`s
timing and the lack of solid moisture should only result in clouds
with perhaps a few light showers over Central Lower.  But the main
impact to this wave will be the cooling northwest upper flow behind
it. And along with the partly sunny skies, daytime temps will only
reach 70 to 75 on Tuesday.  Skies will clear into Tuesday night with
a chilly low in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Overall, rather quiet weather is expected in the long term with near
normal temperatures. A cooler air mass will be in place at the start
of the long term with a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Friday
and Saturday. 850mb temps are forecast to be in the +8 to +12 C
range almost the entire stretch from Wednesday through Sunday.
Temperatures could easily be pushing +20 C or higher this time of
year so nothing close to 90 is expected in the long term. In fact,
we are looking at highs in the upper 70s to around 80, which is near
to slightly below normal.

In terms of sensible weather, high pressure will be in place much of
the time from Wednesday through Sunday. So, dry weather with partly
cloudy skies will dominate. The exception will be in the Thursday
afternoon through Friday afternoon time frame. A cold front will
traverse the area Thursday night and Friday. Low pops in the
forecast with this frontal passage between 20-50 pct. For now only
have showers mentioned as CAPE values off the ECMWF are low on the
order of 200-500 J/KG for the most part in our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions exist across Southwest Lower MI
at 18z. For the most part, expecting VFR weather this afternoon
and for the remainder of the TAF period for that matter.
Increasing amounts of sunshine this afternoon should lift the
remaining MVFR ceilings to VFR by mid afternoon or so. There are
small chances for showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two towards
KLAN and KJXN, otherwise conditions are expected to remain dry.

A cold front upstream will push through this evening, between 00Z
and 06z which should usher in clearing skies. Winds the next 24
hours, will predominantly be westerly at 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The lake will be a fairly rough area through much of the short term.
We may even need a small craft advisory by Tuesday afternoon into
the evening.

Flow behind the cold front tonight will increase to around 20 knots
Monday causing choppy conditions.  Then the cold advection into late
Monday night should cause the rough conditions to continue.  The
north northwest long fetch flow into Tuesday may produce small craft
conditons, especially south of Grand Haven.  It appears it will take
until late Tuesday night before the lake finally calms down.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 261930
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

After a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into early
this evening, the region will dry out.  Other than an isolated
shower over Central Lower Michigan Monday night, we will remain dry
through mid week.  Temperatures will cool down, with highs in the
low and mid 80s monday, followed by 70 to 75 on Tuesday.

The next chance of rain should hold off until Thursday and Thursday
night when another front comes through, otherwise the rest of the
week appears dry.  Temperatures through the latter half of the week
will be near normal with mainly upper 70s to around 80 for daytime
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Late afternoon and early evening showers and storms will exit the
area, leading to a mainly dry short term.  However a few showers may
clip Central Lower with a short wave passing through.

A cold front will continue to pass through the CWA this afternoon,
exiting early this evening.  We have managed to recover somewhat and
MUCAPE values have pushed toward 2K j/kg along I-94.  Until the
front is through we will see widely scattered storms, but even these
will be SE of the area by 02Z.  Jet dynamics remain weak with 0-6km
shear around 30 KTS...so severe threat remains very low.

Monday will remain warm with highs in the low and mid 80s, but we
will see humidity values drop overnight tonight, so it will be more
comfortable.  It will become fairly windy into the afternoon with
gusts to around 30 mph.

A sharp short wave drops over the region late Monday night.  It`s
timing and the lack of solid moisture should only result in clouds
with perhaps a few light showers over Central Lower.  But the main
impact to this wave will be the cooling northwest upper flow behind
it. And along with the partly sunny skies, daytime temps will only
reach 70 to 75 on Tuesday.  Skies will clear into Tuesday night with
a chilly low in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Overall, rather quiet weather is expected in the long term with near
normal temperatures. A cooler air mass will be in place at the start
of the long term with a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Friday
and Saturday. 850mb temps are forecast to be in the +8 to +12 C
range almost the entire stretch from Wednesday through Sunday.
Temperatures could easily be pushing +20 C or higher this time of
year so nothing close to 90 is expected in the long term. In fact,
we are looking at highs in the upper 70s to around 80, which is near
to slightly below normal.

In terms of sensible weather, high pressure will be in place much of
the time from Wednesday through Sunday. So, dry weather with partly
cloudy skies will dominate. The exception will be in the Thursday
afternoon through Friday afternoon time frame. A cold front will
traverse the area Thursday night and Friday. Low pops in the
forecast with this frontal passage between 20-50 pct. For now only
have showers mentioned as CAPE values off the ECMWF are low on the
order of 200-500 J/KG for the most part in our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions exist across Southwest Lower MI
at 18z. For the most part, expecting VFR weather this afternoon
and for the remainder of the TAF period for that matter.
Increasing amounts of sunshine this afternoon should lift the
remaining MVFR ceilings to VFR by mid afternoon or so. There are
small chances for showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two towards
KLAN and KJXN, otherwise conditions are expected to remain dry.

A cold front upstream will push through this evening, between 00Z
and 06z which should usher in clearing skies. Winds the next 24
hours, will predominantly be westerly at 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The lake will be a fairly rough area through much of the short term.
We may even need a small craft advisory by Tuesday afternoon into
the evening.

Flow behind the cold front tonight will increase to around 20 knots
Monday causing choppy conditions.  Then the cold advection into late
Monday night should cause the rough conditions to continue.  The
north northwest long fetch flow into Tuesday may produce small craft
conditons, especially south of Grand Haven.  It appears it will take
until late Tuesday night before the lake finally calms down.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261916
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
316 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Cooler and drier air arrive tonight...

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Overview: Stacked low pressure system is spinning over western
Ontario with a front arcing down through the Great Lakes. 18Z
surface analysis suggests front is just about to push into eastern
upper Michigan and extends down through Lake Michigan into SE
Wisconsin, per subtle wind shift and drop in dewpoints across the
boundary. Ahead of the front, abundant cloud cover still remains
over most of the CWA although mixing/thinning of the cloud cover
is starting to unfold and skies have largely cleared in eastern
upper save for a bit of marine stratus across Mackinac county.

Mild but soupy out there, with temps spanning the 70s and
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, but a far cry from the 80s we
were originally planning. Latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests only a
few hundred J/KG MLCAPE values over the E/SE parts of the CWA
although we still have time for late heating and some areas may
yet make a run into the 80s.

Tonight: Still waiting to see what, if anything can pop. Upstream
front/subtle wind shift/dewpoint boundary will be crossing the
region over the next few hours. Low level convergence with the
front is minimal and am very tempted to remove pops altogether at
this point. But we could pop something along the front or along
some sort of differential heating boundary before all is said and
done and most likely over NE lower michigan.

Otherwise, clearing skies tonight as drier air makes its way into
the region. Secondary cold front and wrap around cloud cover will
be rotating down through upper Michigan overnight and may spread
some cloud cover into the northern sections of the CWA late.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

High impact weather potential: none.

Stretch of cooler wx looks to wrap up the month. 500mb ridging to
remain anchored over the Rockies, with troffing in place over
eastern Canada and the ne quarter of the conus. This is not a
terribly active pattern (thank goodness it`s summer). However, there
are shower chances Monday/Mon night as an amplifying shortwave
crosses the northern lakes.

Monday/Mon night...a secondary cold front will cross northern MI in
the morning, veering winds from w to wnw/nw and reinforcing cold
advection. A couple of shortwaves will phase over our heads Monday
night, one arriving from far northern Ontario and the other from
central MN.  These will combine and amplify, helping drive another
trailing front across the region Monday night, with low-level winds
veering further to nne.

The above actually sounds impressive, but at no point do we actually
have a lot of moisture available. Sub-850mb moisture will increase
considerably behind the initial secondary front Monday (see cloud
mass that presently exists n and nw of MN). Anticipate abundant low
clouds already in place in eastern upper MI, and making considerable
progress into northern lower MI during the morning. Southward
progress will stall by midday thanks to strong diurnal heating, and
anticipate at least a partly sunny day in se sections. But
elsewhere, it will be a struggle to break down this cloud deck into
anything less than a thick cu/stratocu deck, even in the afternoon.
Said moisture does look too shallow for much in the way of precip,
though some drizzle is perhaps not out of the question in eastern
upper in the morning.

Late in the day, an input of mid-level moisture and cooler temps
aloft will be seen. This will be a more conducive pattern for shower
development. However, best chances for this will be areas with less
of a marine influence. That includes Ontario (ne of the Sault), and
western upper MI/northern WI. Some of the former could scrape by the
St Mary Valley in the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the
latter will try to work across Lake MI toward nw lower MI in the
evening. We saw this sort of thing on Wednesday of last week, when
decaying showers were aided by cooling/moistening, and were
successful in crossing the cool lake waters. The Ecmwf reflects this
idea. Will have chance pops in some parts of eastern upper/nw lower
MI late Monday. Wonder if some of the models (Nam in particular)
carry too much precip too far eastward overnight. However, in
deference to a still-sharpening digging upper trof, will have a
small chance of showers overnight in part of ne lower MI. Sharp
subsidence arrives in western/northern sections late behind the
amplifying upper trof, and partial clearing will be seen.

Max temps range from upper 60s parts of eastern upper, to lower 80s
near Saginaw Bay. Min temps upper 40s to middle 50s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...quiet. Shortwave ridging in the wake of the
Monday night trof arrives by Tuesday night. Next shortwave will make
some inroads over northern Lake Superior on Wednesday, but not close
enough to have a substantial impact here. These periods all appear
dry, with relatively little in the way of cloud cover. Can guide max
temps a bit above guidance, and min temps a bit below. Overall, our
airmass in relatively cool (850mb temps around 8c), keeping temps
cooler than normal. Max temps will be near 70f to the lower 70s Tue,
mostly middle 70s Wed. Min temps mainly in the low/mid 40s Tue
night, and some stray 30s in interior cold spots are possible.

JZ

High pressure overhead Wednesday night into the first half of
Thursday progresses eastward Thursday afternoon ahead of an area of
low pressure expected to slide through southern Canada, ultimately
swinging a cold front through northern Michigan on Thursday.
Certainly looks to have a very similar feel to today`s cold front as
convection over WI weakens as it moves over Lake Michigan and then
reintensifies east of the area. At any rate...will increase PoPs
Thursday/Thursday night before returning to mainly dry and
seasonable conditions for next weekend. High temperatures throughout
the extended period range through the 70s with overnight lows in the
50s.

Gillen

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Abundant MVFR cloud cover lingers across northern lower Michigan
this afternoon in the wake of earlier rainfall. Clearing line is
making it`s way across Lake Michigan and I still expect a west to
east clearing/thinning trend to the clouds over the next few hours
with CIGS becoming VFR. There remains a low probability for a few
showers/storms late this afternoon as a cold front slips through
the region. Low confidence and coverage and have not included in
any terminal forecasts with the 18Z issuance. But, best chance
will be at the APN terminal site.

Tonight, clearing skies and diminishing winds for most of the
night. Secondary/wrap around cloud cover associated with low
pressure over Ontario will be overspreading the region from the
north late, possibly getting into KPLN and KAPN toward morning.
In any event, daytime heating will lead to the development of
SCT-BKN CU by late morning and into the afternoon.

Some SW gustiness will persist this afternoon before diminishing
tonight. Winds veer more westerly with some gusts again on
Monday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Gusty SW to W winds remain over the lakes this afternoon although
sustained small craft advisory conditions have not really
materialized at this juncture. Some gustiness will persist, but
plan to cancel advisories with the 5 PM forecast issuance.

Winds will veer more westerly tonight and northwesterly on
Tuesday. We will see more gustiness on Monday with gusts to around
20 knots and there may be a need to hoist some advisories for
Monday. But will let later forecast shifts take a look at that. So
for now we will be headline free.

Weather-wise, clearing skies tonight but becoming cloudy again for
Monday with spotty showers as much cooler air overspreads the
region. Clearing out again for Tuesday.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...JZ/Gillen
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...Adam




000
FXUS63 KMQT 261915
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
315 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Mostly sunny skies across Upr Michigan this aftn in wake of the
front that brought showers and thunderstorms last night. West winds
are breezy and should reach around advy levels this evening on the
Keweenaw as RAP and HRRR soundings show mixed layer building to
depth that will tap into winds from 38-43 kts. This matches up with
the 40 kts at h925 seen on the 12z INL sounding. Pressure rise also
moving in late this aftn should help boost winds. Stronger winds
will end btwn 00z-02z.

Upper level low currently over northern Ontario moves to near James
Bay by 12z Monday. Stronger shortwave rotating around the upper low
is bringing widespread clouds and some showers, especially across
southern Manitoba into parts of northern Ontario. Expect this
shortwave to settle across Upr Michigan later tonight with h85
thermal trough following on Monday. Deep moisture h9-h7 moves over
the area late tonight into Monday. Due to the moisture expect
scattered showers especially over the west half of the cwa with
additional lift provided by upslope over the higher terrain. Another
breezy but much cooler day with highs only reaching to around 60
degrees near Lk Superior and into the 60s south central. Temps along
some shoreline areas of Lk Superior may stay in the 50s.

Despite the cool temps the gusty northwest winds will build waves on
Lk Superior. The result will be a high swim risk for the beaches of
Alger county. Local guidance suggests that a Beach hazard statement
will be needed. Will mention increased swim risk in the Hazardous
weather outlook and through social media.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions and a few chances for rain over the next week.

Monday: Markedly cooler conditions are expected for Monday, with
some places seeing 24 hour temp changes from Sunday approaching
-25F. Abundant low-level moisture and a passing trough axis will
support isolated to scattered showers across most of the CWA,
especially west in the afternoon due some diurnal assistance.
Shallow inversion heights will limit cloud depths, but warm rain
processes should allow for possibly moderate rain with any showers.
Gusty NW winds and high waves will likely result in a high swim risk
for at least Alger County, but a Beach Hazards Statement may not be
needed due to both air temps in the low 60s and water temps in the
50s.

Monday night through Tuesday night: Conditions clear out fairly
quick Monday evening ahead of weakening mid-level ridging. Light
winds and generally dry and clear conditions will allow for a couple
chilly summer nights, with lows in the 40s inland. A few upper 30s
for the typically coldest locations cannot be ruled out Tuesday
night.

Wednesday through Saturday: After a return of seasonable temps for
Wednesday, a sharp trough and associated cold front will slowly
track across Upper MI Wednesday night through Thursday. The trough
will then stall NE of Lake Superior Friday into Saturday. With
cyclonic flow and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few
showers will be possible for mainly the east half. The arrival of
drier low-level air should prevent precip chances from continuing
into Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 148 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions expected into this evening at
all TAF sites. West winds will remain gusty especially at CMX and
SAW. Cold air advection behind low pressure system crossing Northern
Ontario will bring MVFR cigs across all the TAF sites overnight
tonight into Monday. Some showers are possible but significant vsby
reduction is not expected.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

SW winds 20-30 kts shift NW on Monday. Strongest winds on Monday
will be over east half. Winds diminish through rest of week less
than 20 kts as pressure gradient weakens.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ001-003.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA




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