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000
FXUS63 KGRR 021745
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
145 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WELL NORTH OF I-96 BUT
ALSO A BIT OF A RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THE TIME OF CONCERN
FOR BOTH AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 100 PM EDT AND 6OO PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT TRACE UPWARDS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING NO RAIN AT ALL.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDER NOW STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH TO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT H5-H3 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT ALSO LOOKS FROM
RADAR LOOPS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK H7 MESO-CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE FEATURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. THE NORTHERN END OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE THE MCV PORTION HAS
BEEN WEAKENING.

RAP/HRRR/ECMWF INDICATE ML CAPES OF 250-750 J/KG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30 KTS. UP NORTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN ROUGHNESS WILL BE THE KEY TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MCV...AND INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94. BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHGIAN WILL DEPART BY
LATE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TOTALS MOSTLY UNDER A HALF INCH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS WELL BELOW BANK FULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COBB
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 021745
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
145 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WELL NORTH OF I-96 BUT
ALSO A BIT OF A RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THE TIME OF CONCERN
FOR BOTH AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 100 PM EDT AND 6OO PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT TRACE UPWARDS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING NO RAIN AT ALL.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDER NOW STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH TO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT H5-H3 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT ALSO LOOKS FROM
RADAR LOOPS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK H7 MESO-CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE FEATURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. THE NORTHERN END OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE THE MCV PORTION HAS
BEEN WEAKENING.

RAP/HRRR/ECMWF INDICATE ML CAPES OF 250-750 J/KG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30 KTS. UP NORTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN ROUGHNESS WILL BE THE KEY TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MCV...AND INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94. BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHGIAN WILL DEPART BY
LATE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TOTALS MOSTLY UNDER A HALF INCH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS WELL BELOW BANK FULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COBB
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 021745
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
145 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WELL NORTH OF I-96 BUT
ALSO A BIT OF A RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THE TIME OF CONCERN
FOR BOTH AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 100 PM EDT AND 6OO PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT TRACE UPWARDS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING NO RAIN AT ALL.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDER NOW STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH TO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT H5-H3 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT ALSO LOOKS FROM
RADAR LOOPS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK H7 MESO-CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE FEATURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. THE NORTHERN END OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE THE MCV PORTION HAS
BEEN WEAKENING.

RAP/HRRR/ECMWF INDICATE ML CAPES OF 250-750 J/KG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30 KTS. UP NORTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN ROUGHNESS WILL BE THE KEY TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MCV...AND INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94. BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHGIAN WILL DEPART BY
LATE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TOTALS MOSTLY UNDER A HALF INCH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS WELL BELOW BANK FULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COBB
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 021745
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
145 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WELL NORTH OF I-96 BUT
ALSO A BIT OF A RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THE TIME OF CONCERN
FOR BOTH AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 100 PM EDT AND 6OO PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT TRACE UPWARDS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING NO RAIN AT ALL.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDER NOW STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH TO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT H5-H3 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT ALSO LOOKS FROM
RADAR LOOPS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK H7 MESO-CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE FEATURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. THE NORTHERN END OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE THE MCV PORTION HAS
BEEN WEAKENING.

RAP/HRRR/ECMWF INDICATE ML CAPES OF 250-750 J/KG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30 KTS. UP NORTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN ROUGHNESS WILL BE THE KEY TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MCV...AND INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94. BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHGIAN WILL DEPART BY
LATE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TOTALS MOSTLY UNDER A HALF INCH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS WELL BELOW BANK FULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COBB
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KAPX 021740
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WITH QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS ITS APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINDY AND WARM
WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL
HAVE DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5 C/KM) AND SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH WIND FIELDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
20 KNOTS OR LESS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...MUCH MORE TAME WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH REALLY. MAYBE A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO FROM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN A TRANSITION TO A
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME...AS OUR TROUBLESOME STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY`S ACTIVE WEATHER HAS LIFTED INTO QUEBEC...
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING RESIDES
OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...FEATURING ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...TIED TO A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA.

THAT FEATURE WILL BE OF MOST INTEREST FOR US FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AS IT DELIVERS NOTABLE COOLING IN THE 600-500MB
LAYER...MAINLY AFTER 19Z. THAT IN TURN WILL HELP STEEPEN LOWER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS 7.5C/KM ABOVE 850MB. WORKING IN TANDEM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND INLAND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...CAN FORESEE
LOCALIZED STRONGER CONVERGENCE RESIDING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
AS WELL AS INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANYTHING TERRIBLY GREAT...WITH MAYBE
UP TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED...WHILE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING INTO A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS
ALOFT LIKELY LOWERS DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BACK THROUGH
THE MID (LOWER?) 50S. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SETUP AND ARRIVAL OF
COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FEEL COMPELLED TO CONTINUE WITH
LOWER POPS...STEERING THINGS MORE TOWARD ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING
AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW BUT UPSTREAM HISTORY THE PAST 18-24 HOURS
DOES INDICATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ISN`T TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ARRIVAL OF BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD BRING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING OF THE
FLOW...WHILE PERHAPS SOME VESTIGES OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS ROLL
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET WHAT COULD BE A MUCH COOLER NIGHT...WITH LOWS JUST A SHADE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...EYES REMAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR STORMS...

IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS STILL TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION FOR A LOT OF WIND
AND FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING STILL TO
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE...BUT A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS WED-THU...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. THEN...THE TREND IS MOVING TOWARD A RETURN TO MORE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NE CONUS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: CHANCES/LOCATION FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...HOW MUCH STRATUS
IS AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DO WE HEAT UP...IN WHICH CASE IT;LL
BE BREEZY AND WARM. THEN...THE EVOLUTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO SLIP OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH THAT...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A STRONG WIND AND
STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. KEY HERE: WILL WE DEVELOP THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY:

SHALLOW RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...HOSTILE TO ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCE. RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SE OF NRN MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A WARMER DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTATION OF THE
WEATHER OVER THIS TIME FRAME. PAC NW SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO
WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT DEEPENING AND SHIFTING ALSO INTO ONTARIO. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
DAYBREAK AND THEN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO
1.5" INTO THURSDAY MORNING...30KT LLJ DIRECTED AT US...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO 6.5 C/KM ARRIVING..WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG DEVELOPING.
WHILE THE BETTER INGREDIENTS WILL BE WEST OF US...SEEING DECAYING
NOCTURNAL MCS/STORMS TRICKLING INTO WESTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOW FAR EAST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION GETS IS ONE ISSUE.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE NW HALF OF THE CWA COULD BE
AFFECTED...WHILE THERE IS OUR OMNIPRESENT CONCERN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH RESULTS IN PROBLEMS FOR SEEING SUNSHINE AND
WARMING INTO THE DAY. NOTHING DIFFERENT HERE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND GOTTA BELIEVE WITH THE SUN
ANGLE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
THE LIKELY RESULT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS SEEMS
LESS IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...ASSUMING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POTENTIAL
MORNING CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL START
TO MAXIMIZE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REALLY STRENGTHEN WITH A
70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A 45KT H8 LLJ.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE THERE...AND THEN LAY OVER INTO
EASTERN UPPER...POSSIBLY FAR NRN LOWER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AND
EVEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
UNDERGO IT`S TYPICAL DECLINE AFTER SUNSET...SO TAPPING ALL THAT WIND
MAY PROVE TO BE MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP ALL EYES FOCUSED ON THE TIMING...IF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
CAN ARRIVE EARLIER...WE ARE LOOKING AT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. LIKELY SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND AHEAD AND ALONG THE SFC
FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DROP SE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET WITH SUN BREAKING OUT THURSDAY AND GUSTY SW
WINDS 20MPH...MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. HIGHS FRIDAY DIPPING BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND DEPENDING ON FRONTAL POSITION...AS
WARM AS THE LOWER 80S NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:

DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAIN CHANNEL OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
LIFTING NORTH. THIS DOES NOT DRIVE ANY FURTHER SHORTWAVE OUR
WAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN/LINGERS OVER THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER HALF OF
THE 60S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TERMINALS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.
MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE WEST INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES...THOUGH FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRUSHES THROUGH THE LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...HOLDING FROM THAT DIRECTION
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY TOWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...LAWRENCE






000
FXUS63 KAPX 021740
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WITH QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS ITS APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINDY AND WARM
WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL
HAVE DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5 C/KM) AND SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH WIND FIELDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
20 KNOTS OR LESS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...MUCH MORE TAME WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH REALLY. MAYBE A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO FROM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN A TRANSITION TO A
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME...AS OUR TROUBLESOME STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY`S ACTIVE WEATHER HAS LIFTED INTO QUEBEC...
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING RESIDES
OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...FEATURING ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...TIED TO A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA.

THAT FEATURE WILL BE OF MOST INTEREST FOR US FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AS IT DELIVERS NOTABLE COOLING IN THE 600-500MB
LAYER...MAINLY AFTER 19Z. THAT IN TURN WILL HELP STEEPEN LOWER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS 7.5C/KM ABOVE 850MB. WORKING IN TANDEM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND INLAND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...CAN FORESEE
LOCALIZED STRONGER CONVERGENCE RESIDING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
AS WELL AS INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANYTHING TERRIBLY GREAT...WITH MAYBE
UP TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED...WHILE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING INTO A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS
ALOFT LIKELY LOWERS DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BACK THROUGH
THE MID (LOWER?) 50S. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SETUP AND ARRIVAL OF
COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FEEL COMPELLED TO CONTINUE WITH
LOWER POPS...STEERING THINGS MORE TOWARD ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING
AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW BUT UPSTREAM HISTORY THE PAST 18-24 HOURS
DOES INDICATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ISN`T TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ARRIVAL OF BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD BRING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING OF THE
FLOW...WHILE PERHAPS SOME VESTIGES OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS ROLL
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET WHAT COULD BE A MUCH COOLER NIGHT...WITH LOWS JUST A SHADE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...EYES REMAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR STORMS...

IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS STILL TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION FOR A LOT OF WIND
AND FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING STILL TO
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE...BUT A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS WED-THU...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. THEN...THE TREND IS MOVING TOWARD A RETURN TO MORE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NE CONUS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: CHANCES/LOCATION FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...HOW MUCH STRATUS
IS AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DO WE HEAT UP...IN WHICH CASE IT;LL
BE BREEZY AND WARM. THEN...THE EVOLUTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO SLIP OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH THAT...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A STRONG WIND AND
STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. KEY HERE: WILL WE DEVELOP THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY:

SHALLOW RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...HOSTILE TO ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCE. RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SE OF NRN MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A WARMER DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTATION OF THE
WEATHER OVER THIS TIME FRAME. PAC NW SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO
WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT DEEPENING AND SHIFTING ALSO INTO ONTARIO. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
DAYBREAK AND THEN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO
1.5" INTO THURSDAY MORNING...30KT LLJ DIRECTED AT US...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO 6.5 C/KM ARRIVING..WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG DEVELOPING.
WHILE THE BETTER INGREDIENTS WILL BE WEST OF US...SEEING DECAYING
NOCTURNAL MCS/STORMS TRICKLING INTO WESTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOW FAR EAST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION GETS IS ONE ISSUE.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE NW HALF OF THE CWA COULD BE
AFFECTED...WHILE THERE IS OUR OMNIPRESENT CONCERN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH RESULTS IN PROBLEMS FOR SEEING SUNSHINE AND
WARMING INTO THE DAY. NOTHING DIFFERENT HERE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND GOTTA BELIEVE WITH THE SUN
ANGLE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
THE LIKELY RESULT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS SEEMS
LESS IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...ASSUMING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POTENTIAL
MORNING CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL START
TO MAXIMIZE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REALLY STRENGTHEN WITH A
70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A 45KT H8 LLJ.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE THERE...AND THEN LAY OVER INTO
EASTERN UPPER...POSSIBLY FAR NRN LOWER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AND
EVEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
UNDERGO IT`S TYPICAL DECLINE AFTER SUNSET...SO TAPPING ALL THAT WIND
MAY PROVE TO BE MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP ALL EYES FOCUSED ON THE TIMING...IF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
CAN ARRIVE EARLIER...WE ARE LOOKING AT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. LIKELY SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND AHEAD AND ALONG THE SFC
FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DROP SE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET WITH SUN BREAKING OUT THURSDAY AND GUSTY SW
WINDS 20MPH...MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. HIGHS FRIDAY DIPPING BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND DEPENDING ON FRONTAL POSITION...AS
WARM AS THE LOWER 80S NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:

DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAIN CHANNEL OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
LIFTING NORTH. THIS DOES NOT DRIVE ANY FURTHER SHORTWAVE OUR
WAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN/LINGERS OVER THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER HALF OF
THE 60S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TERMINALS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.
MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE WEST INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES...THOUGH FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRUSHES THROUGH THE LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...HOLDING FROM THAT DIRECTION
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY TOWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...LAWRENCE






000
FXUS63 KAPX 021740
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WITH QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS ITS APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINDY AND WARM
WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL
HAVE DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5 C/KM) AND SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH WIND FIELDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
20 KNOTS OR LESS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...MUCH MORE TAME WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH REALLY. MAYBE A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO FROM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN A TRANSITION TO A
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME...AS OUR TROUBLESOME STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY`S ACTIVE WEATHER HAS LIFTED INTO QUEBEC...
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING RESIDES
OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...FEATURING ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...TIED TO A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA.

THAT FEATURE WILL BE OF MOST INTEREST FOR US FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AS IT DELIVERS NOTABLE COOLING IN THE 600-500MB
LAYER...MAINLY AFTER 19Z. THAT IN TURN WILL HELP STEEPEN LOWER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS 7.5C/KM ABOVE 850MB. WORKING IN TANDEM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND INLAND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...CAN FORESEE
LOCALIZED STRONGER CONVERGENCE RESIDING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
AS WELL AS INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANYTHING TERRIBLY GREAT...WITH MAYBE
UP TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED...WHILE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING INTO A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS
ALOFT LIKELY LOWERS DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BACK THROUGH
THE MID (LOWER?) 50S. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SETUP AND ARRIVAL OF
COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FEEL COMPELLED TO CONTINUE WITH
LOWER POPS...STEERING THINGS MORE TOWARD ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING
AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW BUT UPSTREAM HISTORY THE PAST 18-24 HOURS
DOES INDICATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ISN`T TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ARRIVAL OF BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD BRING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING OF THE
FLOW...WHILE PERHAPS SOME VESTIGES OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS ROLL
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET WHAT COULD BE A MUCH COOLER NIGHT...WITH LOWS JUST A SHADE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...EYES REMAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR STORMS...

IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS STILL TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION FOR A LOT OF WIND
AND FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING STILL TO
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE...BUT A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS WED-THU...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. THEN...THE TREND IS MOVING TOWARD A RETURN TO MORE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NE CONUS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: CHANCES/LOCATION FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...HOW MUCH STRATUS
IS AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DO WE HEAT UP...IN WHICH CASE IT;LL
BE BREEZY AND WARM. THEN...THE EVOLUTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO SLIP OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH THAT...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A STRONG WIND AND
STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. KEY HERE: WILL WE DEVELOP THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY:

SHALLOW RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...HOSTILE TO ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCE. RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SE OF NRN MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A WARMER DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTATION OF THE
WEATHER OVER THIS TIME FRAME. PAC NW SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO
WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT DEEPENING AND SHIFTING ALSO INTO ONTARIO. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
DAYBREAK AND THEN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO
1.5" INTO THURSDAY MORNING...30KT LLJ DIRECTED AT US...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO 6.5 C/KM ARRIVING..WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG DEVELOPING.
WHILE THE BETTER INGREDIENTS WILL BE WEST OF US...SEEING DECAYING
NOCTURNAL MCS/STORMS TRICKLING INTO WESTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOW FAR EAST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION GETS IS ONE ISSUE.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE NW HALF OF THE CWA COULD BE
AFFECTED...WHILE THERE IS OUR OMNIPRESENT CONCERN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH RESULTS IN PROBLEMS FOR SEEING SUNSHINE AND
WARMING INTO THE DAY. NOTHING DIFFERENT HERE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND GOTTA BELIEVE WITH THE SUN
ANGLE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
THE LIKELY RESULT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS SEEMS
LESS IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...ASSUMING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POTENTIAL
MORNING CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL START
TO MAXIMIZE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REALLY STRENGTHEN WITH A
70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A 45KT H8 LLJ.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE THERE...AND THEN LAY OVER INTO
EASTERN UPPER...POSSIBLY FAR NRN LOWER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AND
EVEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
UNDERGO IT`S TYPICAL DECLINE AFTER SUNSET...SO TAPPING ALL THAT WIND
MAY PROVE TO BE MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP ALL EYES FOCUSED ON THE TIMING...IF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
CAN ARRIVE EARLIER...WE ARE LOOKING AT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. LIKELY SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND AHEAD AND ALONG THE SFC
FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DROP SE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET WITH SUN BREAKING OUT THURSDAY AND GUSTY SW
WINDS 20MPH...MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. HIGHS FRIDAY DIPPING BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND DEPENDING ON FRONTAL POSITION...AS
WARM AS THE LOWER 80S NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:

DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAIN CHANNEL OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
LIFTING NORTH. THIS DOES NOT DRIVE ANY FURTHER SHORTWAVE OUR
WAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN/LINGERS OVER THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER HALF OF
THE 60S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TERMINALS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.
MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE WEST INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES...THOUGH FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRUSHES THROUGH THE LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...HOLDING FROM THAT DIRECTION
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY TOWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...LAWRENCE






000
FXUS63 KAPX 021740
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WITH QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS ITS APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINDY AND WARM
WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL
HAVE DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5 C/KM) AND SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH WIND FIELDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
20 KNOTS OR LESS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...MUCH MORE TAME WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH REALLY. MAYBE A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO FROM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN A TRANSITION TO A
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME...AS OUR TROUBLESOME STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY`S ACTIVE WEATHER HAS LIFTED INTO QUEBEC...
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING RESIDES
OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...FEATURING ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...TIED TO A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA.

THAT FEATURE WILL BE OF MOST INTEREST FOR US FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AS IT DELIVERS NOTABLE COOLING IN THE 600-500MB
LAYER...MAINLY AFTER 19Z. THAT IN TURN WILL HELP STEEPEN LOWER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS 7.5C/KM ABOVE 850MB. WORKING IN TANDEM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND INLAND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...CAN FORESEE
LOCALIZED STRONGER CONVERGENCE RESIDING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
AS WELL AS INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANYTHING TERRIBLY GREAT...WITH MAYBE
UP TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED...WHILE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING INTO A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS
ALOFT LIKELY LOWERS DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BACK THROUGH
THE MID (LOWER?) 50S. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SETUP AND ARRIVAL OF
COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FEEL COMPELLED TO CONTINUE WITH
LOWER POPS...STEERING THINGS MORE TOWARD ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING
AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW BUT UPSTREAM HISTORY THE PAST 18-24 HOURS
DOES INDICATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ISN`T TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ARRIVAL OF BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD BRING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING OF THE
FLOW...WHILE PERHAPS SOME VESTIGES OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS ROLL
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET WHAT COULD BE A MUCH COOLER NIGHT...WITH LOWS JUST A SHADE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...EYES REMAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR STORMS...

IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS STILL TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION FOR A LOT OF WIND
AND FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING STILL TO
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE...BUT A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS WED-THU...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. THEN...THE TREND IS MOVING TOWARD A RETURN TO MORE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NE CONUS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: CHANCES/LOCATION FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...HOW MUCH STRATUS
IS AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DO WE HEAT UP...IN WHICH CASE IT;LL
BE BREEZY AND WARM. THEN...THE EVOLUTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO SLIP OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH THAT...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A STRONG WIND AND
STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. KEY HERE: WILL WE DEVELOP THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY:

SHALLOW RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...HOSTILE TO ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCE. RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SE OF NRN MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A WARMER DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTATION OF THE
WEATHER OVER THIS TIME FRAME. PAC NW SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO
WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT DEEPENING AND SHIFTING ALSO INTO ONTARIO. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
DAYBREAK AND THEN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO
1.5" INTO THURSDAY MORNING...30KT LLJ DIRECTED AT US...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO 6.5 C/KM ARRIVING..WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG DEVELOPING.
WHILE THE BETTER INGREDIENTS WILL BE WEST OF US...SEEING DECAYING
NOCTURNAL MCS/STORMS TRICKLING INTO WESTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOW FAR EAST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION GETS IS ONE ISSUE.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE NW HALF OF THE CWA COULD BE
AFFECTED...WHILE THERE IS OUR OMNIPRESENT CONCERN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH RESULTS IN PROBLEMS FOR SEEING SUNSHINE AND
WARMING INTO THE DAY. NOTHING DIFFERENT HERE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND GOTTA BELIEVE WITH THE SUN
ANGLE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
THE LIKELY RESULT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS SEEMS
LESS IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...ASSUMING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POTENTIAL
MORNING CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL START
TO MAXIMIZE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REALLY STRENGTHEN WITH A
70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A 45KT H8 LLJ.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE THERE...AND THEN LAY OVER INTO
EASTERN UPPER...POSSIBLY FAR NRN LOWER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AND
EVEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
UNDERGO IT`S TYPICAL DECLINE AFTER SUNSET...SO TAPPING ALL THAT WIND
MAY PROVE TO BE MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP ALL EYES FOCUSED ON THE TIMING...IF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
CAN ARRIVE EARLIER...WE ARE LOOKING AT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. LIKELY SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND AHEAD AND ALONG THE SFC
FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DROP SE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET WITH SUN BREAKING OUT THURSDAY AND GUSTY SW
WINDS 20MPH...MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. HIGHS FRIDAY DIPPING BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND DEPENDING ON FRONTAL POSITION...AS
WARM AS THE LOWER 80S NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:

DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAIN CHANNEL OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
LIFTING NORTH. THIS DOES NOT DRIVE ANY FURTHER SHORTWAVE OUR
WAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN/LINGERS OVER THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER HALF OF
THE 60S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TERMINALS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.
MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE WEST INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES...THOUGH FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRUSHES THROUGH THE LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...HOLDING FROM THAT DIRECTION
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY TOWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...LAWRENCE





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 021718
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
118 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EVER SO SLOWLY SAGGING OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER WITH THE SLOW EXIT RAIN WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PTK.  ONCE THE FRONT DOES SHIFT OUT
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.  FOG WAS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AND THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LOW
FOG POTENTIAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

FOR DTW...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT
OF THE WEST EVEN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS ABOVE 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND HELP FOCUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...OVER ABOUT THE SOUTH 1/2 OF THE AREA. THE EARLY MORNING
OBSERVATION PACKAGE AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A FEW THINGS
AT WORK IN SUPPORT OF THE RAIN PATTERN. THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR LIFT GENERATED BY A SHEARED WAVE
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KT UPPER JET AXIS. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL FORCE A BACKGROUND OF LARGER SCALE LIFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
FRONTOGENESIS ARE NOT SURPRISINGLY ON THE NOISY SIDE GIVEN THE
OVERALL LACK OF BAROCLINICITY BUT THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
DOES RESPOND WITH SOME CONTRACTION AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE FORCING OF THE WAVE. COMBINE THAT WITH SOME LATE NIGHT
NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXPANSION OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT CHUGS THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BEFORE SUNRISE...AND PARCELS
BECOMING SURFACE BASED DURING THE MORNING FOR A BETTER CHANCE...BUT
THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE TAILING OFF DURING THE
REST OF THE DAY. SURFACE TO 925 MB DRY AIR ADVECTION IS ON THE WEAK
SIDE BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME MID TO UPPER
50S DEWPOINT AIR AVAILABLE TO FILTER INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY MID
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOSTER A DECREASING CLOUD TREND THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A SHALLOW AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE A HEAVY DEW THAN FOG
AS MIN TEMPS SETTLE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592-595 DAM AT 500 MB) OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LYING ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISE TO AROUND 590 DAM NEAR THE OHIO BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG 500 MB UPPER WAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A WARM UP AS ELEVATED WARM AIR DESCENDS OFF THE
ROCKIES AND STREAMS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. 700 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMING INTO THE LOWER TEENS ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL HELP CAP ACTIVITY. ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT
CLEANLY LIFTS NORTH OF SOUTHERN LOWE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 DEGREES AS 850 MB TEMPS
OF +20 C ARE ADVERTISED...PER 00Z EURO. TIMING DIFFERENCES
(EURO/GFS/CANADIAN) ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...AND COULD SEE
A 10 DEGREE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT...BUT OVERALL HIGHS IN THE
80S SHOULD SUFFICE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH...AS LI`S PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
-5 TO -10 C.  COOLING MID LEVELS (700 MB) ERODING THE CAP...BUT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (700-500 MB) WILL ALSO BE DIMINISHING.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL OFFER UP A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...AS 850 MB ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN IN THE MID
SINGLE NUMBERS...WHICH MAY JUST HOLD MAXES AT OR BELOW 70 DEGREES.

MARINE...

A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS MORNING OVER LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AND BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SS
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 021718
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
118 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EVER SO SLOWLY SAGGING OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER WITH THE SLOW EXIT RAIN WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PTK.  ONCE THE FRONT DOES SHIFT OUT
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.  FOG WAS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AND THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LOW
FOG POTENTIAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

FOR DTW...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT
OF THE WEST EVEN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS ABOVE 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND HELP FOCUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...OVER ABOUT THE SOUTH 1/2 OF THE AREA. THE EARLY MORNING
OBSERVATION PACKAGE AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A FEW THINGS
AT WORK IN SUPPORT OF THE RAIN PATTERN. THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR LIFT GENERATED BY A SHEARED WAVE
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KT UPPER JET AXIS. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL FORCE A BACKGROUND OF LARGER SCALE LIFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
FRONTOGENESIS ARE NOT SURPRISINGLY ON THE NOISY SIDE GIVEN THE
OVERALL LACK OF BAROCLINICITY BUT THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
DOES RESPOND WITH SOME CONTRACTION AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE FORCING OF THE WAVE. COMBINE THAT WITH SOME LATE NIGHT
NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXPANSION OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT CHUGS THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BEFORE SUNRISE...AND PARCELS
BECOMING SURFACE BASED DURING THE MORNING FOR A BETTER CHANCE...BUT
THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE TAILING OFF DURING THE
REST OF THE DAY. SURFACE TO 925 MB DRY AIR ADVECTION IS ON THE WEAK
SIDE BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME MID TO UPPER
50S DEWPOINT AIR AVAILABLE TO FILTER INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY MID
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOSTER A DECREASING CLOUD TREND THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A SHALLOW AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE A HEAVY DEW THAN FOG
AS MIN TEMPS SETTLE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592-595 DAM AT 500 MB) OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LYING ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISE TO AROUND 590 DAM NEAR THE OHIO BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG 500 MB UPPER WAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A WARM UP AS ELEVATED WARM AIR DESCENDS OFF THE
ROCKIES AND STREAMS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. 700 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMING INTO THE LOWER TEENS ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL HELP CAP ACTIVITY. ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT
CLEANLY LIFTS NORTH OF SOUTHERN LOWE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 DEGREES AS 850 MB TEMPS
OF +20 C ARE ADVERTISED...PER 00Z EURO. TIMING DIFFERENCES
(EURO/GFS/CANADIAN) ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...AND COULD SEE
A 10 DEGREE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT...BUT OVERALL HIGHS IN THE
80S SHOULD SUFFICE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH...AS LI`S PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
-5 TO -10 C.  COOLING MID LEVELS (700 MB) ERODING THE CAP...BUT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (700-500 MB) WILL ALSO BE DIMINISHING.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL OFFER UP A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...AS 850 MB ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN IN THE MID
SINGLE NUMBERS...WHICH MAY JUST HOLD MAXES AT OR BELOW 70 DEGREES.

MARINE...

A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS MORNING OVER LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AND BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SS
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KGRR 021640
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WELL NORTH OF I-96 BUT
ALSO A BIT OF A RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THE TIME OF CONCERN
FOR BOTH AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 100 PM EDT AND 6OO PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT TRACE UPWARDS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING NO RAIN AT ALL.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDER NOW STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH TO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT H5-H3 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT ALSO LOOKS FROM
RADAR LOOPS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK H7 MESO-CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE FEATURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. THE NORTHERN END OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE THE MCV PORTION HAS
BEEN WEAKENING.

RAP/HRRR/ECMWF INDICATE ML CAPES OF 250-750 J/KG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30 KTS. UP NORTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN ROUGHNESS WILL BE THE KEY TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MCV...AND INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94. BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SHOWN UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AFFECTING THE KBTL AND KJXN TAF SITES. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KGRR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARE RELATIVELY SMALL THOUGH AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT A FEW SITES.

TONIGHT EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SOME MVFR FOG IN A LIGHT WIND REGIME AFTER 06Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED THAT INTO THE FORECAST THOUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TOTALS MOSTLY UNDER A HALF INCH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS WELL BELOW BANK FULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COBB
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 021640
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WELL NORTH OF I-96 BUT
ALSO A BIT OF A RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THE TIME OF CONCERN
FOR BOTH AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 100 PM EDT AND 6OO PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT TRACE UPWARDS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING NO RAIN AT ALL.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDER NOW STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH TO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT H5-H3 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT ALSO LOOKS FROM
RADAR LOOPS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK H7 MESO-CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE FEATURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. THE NORTHERN END OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE THE MCV PORTION HAS
BEEN WEAKENING.

RAP/HRRR/ECMWF INDICATE ML CAPES OF 250-750 J/KG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30 KTS. UP NORTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN ROUGHNESS WILL BE THE KEY TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MCV...AND INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94. BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SHOWN UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AFFECTING THE KBTL AND KJXN TAF SITES. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KGRR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARE RELATIVELY SMALL THOUGH AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT A FEW SITES.

TONIGHT EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SOME MVFR FOG IN A LIGHT WIND REGIME AFTER 06Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED THAT INTO THE FORECAST THOUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TOTALS MOSTLY UNDER A HALF INCH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS WELL BELOW BANK FULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COBB
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE






000
FXUS63 KAPX 021555
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1155 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WITH QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS ITS APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINDY AND WARM
WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL
HAVE DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5 C/KM) AND SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH WIND FIELDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
20 KNOTS OR LESS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...MUCH MORE TAME WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH REALLY. MAYBE A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO FROM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN A TRANSITION TO A
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME...AS OUR TROUBLESOME STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY`S ACTIVE WEATHER HAS LIFTED INTO QUEBEC...
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING RESIDES
OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...FEATURING ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...TIED TO A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA.

THAT FEATURE WILL BE OF MOST INTEREST FOR US FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AS IT DELIVERS NOTABLE COOLING IN THE 600-500MB
LAYER...MAINLY AFTER 19Z. THAT IN TURN WILL HELP STEEPEN LOWER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS 7.5C/KM ABOVE 850MB. WORKING IN TANDEM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND INLAND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...CAN FORESEE
LOCALIZED STRONGER CONVERGENCE RESIDING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
AS WELL AS INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANYTHING TERRIBLY GREAT...WITH MAYBE
UP TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED...WHILE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING INTO A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS
ALOFT LIKELY LOWERS DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BACK THROUGH
THE MID (LOWER?) 50S. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SETUP AND ARRIVAL OF
COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FEEL COMPELLED TO CONTINUE WITH
LOWER POPS...STEERING THINGS MORE TOWARD ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING
AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW BUT UPSTREAM HISTORY THE PAST 18-24 HOURS
DOES INDICATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ISN`T TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ARRIVAL OF BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD BRING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING OF THE
FLOW...WHILE PERHAPS SOME VESTIGES OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS ROLL
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET WHAT COULD BE A MUCH COOLER NIGHT...WITH LOWS JUST A SHADE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...EYES REMAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR STORMS...

IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS STILL TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION FOR A LOT OF WIND
AND FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING STILL TO
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE...BUT A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS WED-THU...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. THEN...THE TREND IS MOVING TOWARD A RETURN TO MORE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NE CONUS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: CHANCES/LOCATION FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...HOW MUCH STRATUS
IS AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DO WE HEAT UP...IN WHICH CASE IT;LL
BE BREEZY AND WARM. THEN...THE EVOLUTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO SLIP OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH THAT...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A STRONG WIND AND
STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. KEY HERE: WILL WE DEVELOP THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY:

SHALLOW RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...HOSTILE TO ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCE. RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SE OF NRN MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A WARMER DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTATION OF THE
WEATHER OVER THIS TIME FRAME. PAC NW SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO
WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT DEEPENING AND SHIFTING ALSO INTO ONTARIO. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
DAYBREAK AND THEN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO
1.5" INTO THURSDAY MORNING...30KT LLJ DIRECTED AT US...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO 6.5 C/KM ARRIVING..WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG DEVELOPING.
WHILE THE BETTER INGREDIENTS WILL BE WEST OF US...SEEING DECAYING
NOCTURNAL MCS/STORMS TRICKLING INTO WESTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOW FAR EAST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION GETS IS ONE ISSUE.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE NW HALF OF THE CWA COULD BE
AFFECTED...WHILE THERE IS OUR OMNIPRESENT CONCERN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH RESULTS IN PROBLEMS FOR SEEING SUNSHINE AND
WARMING INTO THE DAY. NOTHING DIFFERENT HERE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND GOTTA BELIEVE WITH THE SUN
ANGLE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
THE LIKELY RESULT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS SEEMS
LESS IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...ASSUMING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POTENTIAL
MORNING CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL START
TO MAXIMIZE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REALLY STRENGTHEN WITH A
70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A 45KT H8 LLJ.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE THERE...AND THEN LAY OVER INTO
EASTERN UPPER...POSSIBLY FAR NRN LOWER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AND
EVEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
UNDERGO IT`S TYPICAL DECLINE AFTER SUNSET...SO TAPPING ALL THAT WIND
MAY PROVE TO BE MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP ALL EYES FOCUSED ON THE TIMING...IF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
CAN ARRIVE EARLIER...WE ARE LOOKING AT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. LIKELY SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND AHEAD AND ALONG THE SFC
FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DROP SE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET WITH SUN BREAKING OUT THURSDAY AND GUSTY SW
WINDS 20MPH...MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. HIGHS FRIDAY DIPPING BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND DEPENDING ON FRONTAL POSITION...AS
WARM AS THE LOWER 80S NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:

DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAIN CHANNEL OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
LIFTING NORTH. THIS DOES NOT DRIVE ANY FURTHER SHORTWAVE OUR
WAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN/LINGERS OVER THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER HALF OF
THE 60S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION UP UNTIL SUNRISE. A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY
DEVELOP AROUND MBL AND PLN...AND HONESTLY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...AS
WINDS GO LIGHT BUT THE GROUND REMAINS MOIST. AN APPROACHING WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND APN. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRUSHES THROUGH THE LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...HOLDING FROM THAT DIRECTION
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY TOWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 021555
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1155 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WITH QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS ITS APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINDY AND WARM
WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL
HAVE DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5 C/KM) AND SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH WIND FIELDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
20 KNOTS OR LESS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...MUCH MORE TAME WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH REALLY. MAYBE A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO FROM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN A TRANSITION TO A
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME...AS OUR TROUBLESOME STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY`S ACTIVE WEATHER HAS LIFTED INTO QUEBEC...
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING RESIDES
OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...FEATURING ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...TIED TO A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA.

THAT FEATURE WILL BE OF MOST INTEREST FOR US FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AS IT DELIVERS NOTABLE COOLING IN THE 600-500MB
LAYER...MAINLY AFTER 19Z. THAT IN TURN WILL HELP STEEPEN LOWER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS 7.5C/KM ABOVE 850MB. WORKING IN TANDEM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND INLAND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...CAN FORESEE
LOCALIZED STRONGER CONVERGENCE RESIDING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
AS WELL AS INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANYTHING TERRIBLY GREAT...WITH MAYBE
UP TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED...WHILE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING INTO A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS
ALOFT LIKELY LOWERS DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BACK THROUGH
THE MID (LOWER?) 50S. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SETUP AND ARRIVAL OF
COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FEEL COMPELLED TO CONTINUE WITH
LOWER POPS...STEERING THINGS MORE TOWARD ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING
AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW BUT UPSTREAM HISTORY THE PAST 18-24 HOURS
DOES INDICATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ISN`T TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ARRIVAL OF BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD BRING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING OF THE
FLOW...WHILE PERHAPS SOME VESTIGES OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS ROLL
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET WHAT COULD BE A MUCH COOLER NIGHT...WITH LOWS JUST A SHADE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...EYES REMAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR STORMS...

IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS STILL TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION FOR A LOT OF WIND
AND FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING STILL TO
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE...BUT A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS WED-THU...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. THEN...THE TREND IS MOVING TOWARD A RETURN TO MORE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NE CONUS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: CHANCES/LOCATION FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...HOW MUCH STRATUS
IS AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DO WE HEAT UP...IN WHICH CASE IT;LL
BE BREEZY AND WARM. THEN...THE EVOLUTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO SLIP OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH THAT...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A STRONG WIND AND
STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. KEY HERE: WILL WE DEVELOP THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY:

SHALLOW RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...HOSTILE TO ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCE. RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SE OF NRN MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A WARMER DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTATION OF THE
WEATHER OVER THIS TIME FRAME. PAC NW SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO
WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT DEEPENING AND SHIFTING ALSO INTO ONTARIO. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
DAYBREAK AND THEN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO
1.5" INTO THURSDAY MORNING...30KT LLJ DIRECTED AT US...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO 6.5 C/KM ARRIVING..WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG DEVELOPING.
WHILE THE BETTER INGREDIENTS WILL BE WEST OF US...SEEING DECAYING
NOCTURNAL MCS/STORMS TRICKLING INTO WESTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOW FAR EAST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION GETS IS ONE ISSUE.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE NW HALF OF THE CWA COULD BE
AFFECTED...WHILE THERE IS OUR OMNIPRESENT CONCERN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH RESULTS IN PROBLEMS FOR SEEING SUNSHINE AND
WARMING INTO THE DAY. NOTHING DIFFERENT HERE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND GOTTA BELIEVE WITH THE SUN
ANGLE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
THE LIKELY RESULT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS SEEMS
LESS IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...ASSUMING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POTENTIAL
MORNING CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL START
TO MAXIMIZE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REALLY STRENGTHEN WITH A
70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A 45KT H8 LLJ.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE THERE...AND THEN LAY OVER INTO
EASTERN UPPER...POSSIBLY FAR NRN LOWER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AND
EVEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
UNDERGO IT`S TYPICAL DECLINE AFTER SUNSET...SO TAPPING ALL THAT WIND
MAY PROVE TO BE MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP ALL EYES FOCUSED ON THE TIMING...IF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
CAN ARRIVE EARLIER...WE ARE LOOKING AT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. LIKELY SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND AHEAD AND ALONG THE SFC
FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DROP SE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET WITH SUN BREAKING OUT THURSDAY AND GUSTY SW
WINDS 20MPH...MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. HIGHS FRIDAY DIPPING BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND DEPENDING ON FRONTAL POSITION...AS
WARM AS THE LOWER 80S NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:

DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAIN CHANNEL OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
LIFTING NORTH. THIS DOES NOT DRIVE ANY FURTHER SHORTWAVE OUR
WAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN/LINGERS OVER THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER HALF OF
THE 60S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION UP UNTIL SUNRISE. A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY
DEVELOP AROUND MBL AND PLN...AND HONESTLY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...AS
WINDS GO LIGHT BUT THE GROUND REMAINS MOIST. AN APPROACHING WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND APN. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRUSHES THROUGH THE LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...HOLDING FROM THAT DIRECTION
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY TOWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 021520
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1120 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WELL NORTH OF I-96 BUT
ALSO A BIT OF A RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THE TIME OF CONCERN
FOR BOTH AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 100 PM EDT AND 6OO PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT TRACE UPWARDS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING NO RAIN AT ALL.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDER NOW STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH TO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT H5-H3 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT ALSO LOOKS FROM
RADAR LOOPS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK H7 MESO-CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE FEATURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. THE NORTHERN END OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE THE MCV PORTION HAS
BEEN WEAKENING.

RAP/HRRR/ECMWF INDICATE ML CAPES OF 250-750 J/KG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30 KTS. UP NORTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN ROUGHNESS WILL BE THE KEY TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MCV...AND INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94. BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SHOWN UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AFFECTING THE KBTL AND KJXN TAF SITES. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KGRR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARE RELATIVELY SMALL THOUGH AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT A FEW SITES.

TONIGHT EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SOME MVFR FOG IN A LIGHT WIND REGIME AFTER 06Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED THAT INTO THE FORECAST THOUGH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LABOR DAY/S RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT REALLY
NO CONCERNS AS THE RISES WERE ALL WELL WITHIN BANK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COBB
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 021520
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1120 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WELL NORTH OF I-96 BUT
ALSO A BIT OF A RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THE TIME OF CONCERN
FOR BOTH AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 100 PM EDT AND 6OO PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT TRACE UPWARDS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING NO RAIN AT ALL.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDER NOW STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH TO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT H5-H3 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT ALSO LOOKS FROM
RADAR LOOPS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK H7 MESO-CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE FEATURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. THE NORTHERN END OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE THE MCV PORTION HAS
BEEN WEAKENING.

RAP/HRRR/ECMWF INDICATE ML CAPES OF 250-750 J/KG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30 KTS. UP NORTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN ROUGHNESS WILL BE THE KEY TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MCV...AND INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94. BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SHOWN UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AFFECTING THE KBTL AND KJXN TAF SITES. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KGRR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARE RELATIVELY SMALL THOUGH AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT A FEW SITES.

TONIGHT EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SOME MVFR FOG IN A LIGHT WIND REGIME AFTER 06Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED THAT INTO THE FORECAST THOUGH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LABOR DAY/S RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT REALLY
NO CONCERNS AS THE RISES WERE ALL WELL WITHIN BANK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COBB
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 021520
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1120 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WELL NORTH OF I-96 BUT
ALSO A BIT OF A RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THE TIME OF CONCERN
FOR BOTH AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 100 PM EDT AND 6OO PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT TRACE UPWARDS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING NO RAIN AT ALL.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDER NOW STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH TO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT H5-H3 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT ALSO LOOKS FROM
RADAR LOOPS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK H7 MESO-CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE FEATURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. THE NORTHERN END OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE THE MCV PORTION HAS
BEEN WEAKENING.

RAP/HRRR/ECMWF INDICATE ML CAPES OF 250-750 J/KG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30 KTS. UP NORTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN ROUGHNESS WILL BE THE KEY TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MCV...AND INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94. BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SHOWN UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AFFECTING THE KBTL AND KJXN TAF SITES. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KGRR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARE RELATIVELY SMALL THOUGH AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT A FEW SITES.

TONIGHT EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SOME MVFR FOG IN A LIGHT WIND REGIME AFTER 06Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED THAT INTO THE FORECAST THOUGH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LABOR DAY/S RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT REALLY
NO CONCERNS AS THE RISES WERE ALL WELL WITHIN BANK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COBB
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 021520
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1120 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WELL NORTH OF I-96 BUT
ALSO A BIT OF A RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THE TIME OF CONCERN
FOR BOTH AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 100 PM EDT AND 6OO PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT TRACE UPWARDS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING NO RAIN AT ALL.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDER NOW STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH TO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT H5-H3 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT ALSO LOOKS FROM
RADAR LOOPS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK H7 MESO-CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE FEATURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. THE NORTHERN END OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE THE MCV PORTION HAS
BEEN WEAKENING.

RAP/HRRR/ECMWF INDICATE ML CAPES OF 250-750 J/KG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30 KTS. UP NORTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN ROUGHNESS WILL BE THE KEY TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MCV...AND INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94. BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SHOWN UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AFFECTING THE KBTL AND KJXN TAF SITES. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KGRR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARE RELATIVELY SMALL THOUGH AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT A FEW SITES.

TONIGHT EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SOME MVFR FOG IN A LIGHT WIND REGIME AFTER 06Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED THAT INTO THE FORECAST THOUGH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LABOR DAY/S RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT REALLY
NO CONCERNS AS THE RISES WERE ALL WELL WITHIN BANK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COBB
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMQT 021445 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE
THICKNESS OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST UP TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AS THIS MOVES THROUGH. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN ON
THE IMPACT THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON DIURNAL HEATING TODAY AND IN TURN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTICED A TREND IN THE
HIGH-RES MODELS (HRRR...NAMDNG...AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW) TO DEVELOP
THE SHOWERS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST (GENERALLY EASTERN
MARQUETTE/MENOMINEE COUNTIES AND EASTWARD)...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THAT IDEA. THE EASTERN U.P. STILL LOOKS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND STORM
MOTION VECTORS PUSHING SHOWERS EASTWARD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOMINATING. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT
SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 021445 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE
THICKNESS OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST UP TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AS THIS MOVES THROUGH. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN ON
THE IMPACT THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON DIURNAL HEATING TODAY AND IN TURN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTICED A TREND IN THE
HIGH-RES MODELS (HRRR...NAMDNG...AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW) TO DEVELOP
THE SHOWERS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST (GENERALLY EASTERN
MARQUETTE/MENOMINEE COUNTIES AND EASTWARD)...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THAT IDEA. THE EASTERN U.P. STILL LOOKS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND STORM
MOTION VECTORS PUSHING SHOWERS EASTWARD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOMINATING. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT
SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 021445 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE
THICKNESS OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST UP TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AS THIS MOVES THROUGH. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN ON
THE IMPACT THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON DIURNAL HEATING TODAY AND IN TURN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTICED A TREND IN THE
HIGH-RES MODELS (HRRR...NAMDNG...AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW) TO DEVELOP
THE SHOWERS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST (GENERALLY EASTERN
MARQUETTE/MENOMINEE COUNTIES AND EASTWARD)...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THAT IDEA. THE EASTERN U.P. STILL LOOKS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND STORM
MOTION VECTORS PUSHING SHOWERS EASTWARD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOMINATING. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT
SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 021445 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE
THICKNESS OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST UP TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AS THIS MOVES THROUGH. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN ON
THE IMPACT THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON DIURNAL HEATING TODAY AND IN TURN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTICED A TREND IN THE
HIGH-RES MODELS (HRRR...NAMDNG...AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW) TO DEVELOP
THE SHOWERS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST (GENERALLY EASTERN
MARQUETTE/MENOMINEE COUNTIES AND EASTWARD)...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THAT IDEA. THE EASTERN U.P. STILL LOOKS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND STORM
MOTION VECTORS PUSHING SHOWERS EASTWARD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOMINATING. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT
SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KGRR 021150
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SHOWN UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AFFECTING THE KBTL AND KJXN TAF SITES. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KGRR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARE RELATIVELY SMALL THOUGH AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT A FEW SITES.

TONIGHT EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SOME MVFR FOG IN A LIGHT WIND REGIME AFTER 06Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED THAT INTO THE FORECAST THOUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LABOR DAY/S RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT REALLY
NO CONCERNS AS THE RISES WERE ALL WELL WITHIN BANK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 021150
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SHOWN UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AFFECTING THE KBTL AND KJXN TAF SITES. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KGRR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARE RELATIVELY SMALL THOUGH AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT A FEW SITES.

TONIGHT EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SOME MVFR FOG IN A LIGHT WIND REGIME AFTER 06Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED THAT INTO THE FORECAST THOUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LABOR DAY/S RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT REALLY
NO CONCERNS AS THE RISES WERE ALL WELL WITHIN BANK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KMQT 021139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOMINATING. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT
SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 021139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOMINATING. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT
SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KDTX 021105
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
705 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE WEAK COLD FRONT JUST PASSING EAST OF
A LINE FROM FNT TO SBN AT PRESS TIME. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A DRY TERMINAL FORECAST FOR FNT AND MBS IN THIS PACKAGE.
FARTHER SOUTH...FROM PTK THROUGH THE DTW CORRIDOR...PLAN TO KEEP A
MENTION OF SHOWERS CAPABLE OF BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTION. THIS IS BASED
ON THE FLARE-UP OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA AROUND SUNRISE...A TREND WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO FAR SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS INTO
ONTARIO AND OHIO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN. FOG POTENTIAL IS LOW BASED ON MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW VERY SHALLOW SATURATION/GROUND FOG AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE TERMINAL UNTIL
ABOUT NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM IS LOW. VERY LITTLE
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LEAVING A GENERAL
LIGHT WEST WIND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL DURING
THE MORNING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND HELP FOCUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...OVER ABOUT THE SOUTH 1/2 OF THE AREA. THE EARLY MORNING
OBSERVATION PACKAGE AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A FEW THINGS
AT WORK IN SUPPORT OF THE RAIN PATTERN. THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR LIFT GENERATED BY A SHEARED WAVE
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KT UPPER JET AXIS. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL FORCE A BACKGROUND OF LARGER SCALE LIFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
FRONTOGENESIS ARE NOT SURPRISINGLY ON THE NOISY SIDE GIVEN THE
OVERALL LACK OF BAROCLINICITY BUT THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
DOES RESPOND WITH SOME CONTRACTION AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE FORCING OF THE WAVE. COMBINE THAT WITH SOME LATE NIGHT
NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXPANSION OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT CHUGS THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BEFORE SUNRISE...AND PARCELS
BECOMING SURFACE BASED DURING THE MORNING FOR A BETTER CHANCE...BUT
THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE TAILING OFF DURING THE
REST OF THE DAY. SURFACE TO 925 MB DRY AIR ADVECTION IS ON THE WEAK
SIDE BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME MID TO UPPER
50S DEWPOINT AIR AVAILABLE TO FILTER INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY MID
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOSTER A DECREASING CLOUD TREND THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A SHALLOW AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE A HEAVY DEW THAN FOG
AS MIN TEMPS SETTLE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592-595 DAM AT 500 MB) OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LYING ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISE TO AROUND 590 DAM NEAR THE OHIO BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG 500 MB UPPER WAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A WARM UP AS ELEVATED WARM AIR DESCENDS OFF THE
ROCKIES AND STREAMS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. 700 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMING INTO THE LOWER TEENS ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL HELP CAP ACTIVITY. ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT
CLEANLY LIFTS NORTH OF SOUTHERN LOWE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 DEGREES AS 850 MB TEMPS
OF +20 C ARE ADVERTISED...PER 00Z EURO. TIMING DIFFERENCES
(EURO/GFS/CANADIAN) ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...AND COULD SEE
A 10 DEGREE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT...BUT OVERALL HIGHS IN THE
80S SHOULD SUFFICE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH...AS LI`S PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
-5 TO -10 C.  COOLING MID LEVELS (700 MB) ERODING THE CAP...BUT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (700-500 MB) WILL ALSO BE DIMINISHING.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL OFFER UP A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...AS 850 MB ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN IN THE MID
SINGLE NUMBERS...WHICH MAY JUST HOLD MAXES AT OR BELOW 70 DEGREES.

MARINE...

A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS MORNING OVER LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AND BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).









000
FXUS63 KDTX 021105
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
705 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE WEAK COLD FRONT JUST PASSING EAST OF
A LINE FROM FNT TO SBN AT PRESS TIME. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A DRY TERMINAL FORECAST FOR FNT AND MBS IN THIS PACKAGE.
FARTHER SOUTH...FROM PTK THROUGH THE DTW CORRIDOR...PLAN TO KEEP A
MENTION OF SHOWERS CAPABLE OF BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTION. THIS IS BASED
ON THE FLARE-UP OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA AROUND SUNRISE...A TREND WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO FAR SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS INTO
ONTARIO AND OHIO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN. FOG POTENTIAL IS LOW BASED ON MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW VERY SHALLOW SATURATION/GROUND FOG AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE TERMINAL UNTIL
ABOUT NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM IS LOW. VERY LITTLE
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LEAVING A GENERAL
LIGHT WEST WIND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL DURING
THE MORNING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND HELP FOCUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...OVER ABOUT THE SOUTH 1/2 OF THE AREA. THE EARLY MORNING
OBSERVATION PACKAGE AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A FEW THINGS
AT WORK IN SUPPORT OF THE RAIN PATTERN. THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR LIFT GENERATED BY A SHEARED WAVE
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KT UPPER JET AXIS. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL FORCE A BACKGROUND OF LARGER SCALE LIFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
FRONTOGENESIS ARE NOT SURPRISINGLY ON THE NOISY SIDE GIVEN THE
OVERALL LACK OF BAROCLINICITY BUT THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
DOES RESPOND WITH SOME CONTRACTION AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE FORCING OF THE WAVE. COMBINE THAT WITH SOME LATE NIGHT
NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXPANSION OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT CHUGS THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BEFORE SUNRISE...AND PARCELS
BECOMING SURFACE BASED DURING THE MORNING FOR A BETTER CHANCE...BUT
THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE TAILING OFF DURING THE
REST OF THE DAY. SURFACE TO 925 MB DRY AIR ADVECTION IS ON THE WEAK
SIDE BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME MID TO UPPER
50S DEWPOINT AIR AVAILABLE TO FILTER INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY MID
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOSTER A DECREASING CLOUD TREND THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A SHALLOW AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE A HEAVY DEW THAN FOG
AS MIN TEMPS SETTLE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592-595 DAM AT 500 MB) OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LYING ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISE TO AROUND 590 DAM NEAR THE OHIO BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG 500 MB UPPER WAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A WARM UP AS ELEVATED WARM AIR DESCENDS OFF THE
ROCKIES AND STREAMS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. 700 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMING INTO THE LOWER TEENS ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL HELP CAP ACTIVITY. ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT
CLEANLY LIFTS NORTH OF SOUTHERN LOWE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 DEGREES AS 850 MB TEMPS
OF +20 C ARE ADVERTISED...PER 00Z EURO. TIMING DIFFERENCES
(EURO/GFS/CANADIAN) ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...AND COULD SEE
A 10 DEGREE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT...BUT OVERALL HIGHS IN THE
80S SHOULD SUFFICE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH...AS LI`S PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
-5 TO -10 C.  COOLING MID LEVELS (700 MB) ERODING THE CAP...BUT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (700-500 MB) WILL ALSO BE DIMINISHING.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL OFFER UP A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...AS 850 MB ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN IN THE MID
SINGLE NUMBERS...WHICH MAY JUST HOLD MAXES AT OR BELOW 70 DEGREES.

MARINE...

A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS MORNING OVER LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AND BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KMQT 020902
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 020902
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 020902
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 020902
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 020812
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 020812
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 020812
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 020812
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KDTX 020758
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND HELP FOCUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...OVER ABOUT THE SOUTH 1/2 OF THE AREA. THE EARLY MORNING
OBSERVATION PACKAGE AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A FEW THINGS
AT WORK IN SUPPORT OF THE RAIN PATTERN. THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR LIFT GENERATED BY A SHEARED WAVE
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KT UPPER JET AXIS. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL FORCE A BACKGROUND OF LARGER SCALE LIFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
FRONTOGENESIS ARE NOT SURPRISINGLY ON THE NOISY SIDE GIVEN THE
OVERALL LACK OF BAROCLINICITY BUT THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
DOES RESPOND WITH SOME CONTRACTION AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE FORCING OF THE WAVE. COMBINE THAT WITH SOME LATE NIGHT
NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXPANSION OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT CHUGS THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BEFORE SUNRISE...AND PARCELS
BECOMING SURFACE BASED DURING THE MORNING FOR A BETTER CHANCE...BUT
THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE TAILING OFF DURING THE
REST OF THE DAY. SURFACE TO 925 MB DRY AIR ADVECTION IS ON THE WEAK
SIDE BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME MID TO UPPER
50S DEWPOINT AIR AVAILABLE TO FILTER INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY MID
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOSTER A DECREASING CLOUD TREND THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A SHALLOW AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE A HEAVY DEW THAN FOG
AS MIN TEMPS SETTLE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592-595 DAM AT 500 MB) OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LYING ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISE TO AROUND 590 DAM NEAR THE OHIO BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG 500 MB UPPER WAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A WARM UP AS ELEVATED WARM AIR DESCENDS OFF THE
ROCKIES AND STREAMS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. 700 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMING INTO THE LOWER TEENS ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL HELP CAP ACTIVITY. ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT
CLEANLY LIFTS NORTH OF SOUTHERN LOWE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 DEGREES AS 850 MB TEMPS
OF +20 C ARE ADVERTISED...PER 00Z EURO. TIMING DIFFERENCES
(EURO/GFS/CANADIAN) ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...AND COULD SEE
A 10 DEGREE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT...BUT OVERALL HIGHS IN THE
80S SHOULD SUFFICE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH...AS LI`S PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
-5 TO -10 C.  COOLING MID LEVELS (700 MB) ERODING THE CAP...BUT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (700-500 MB) WILL ALSO BE DIMINISHING.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL OFFER UP A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...AS 850 MB ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN IN THE MID
SINGLE NUMBERS...WHICH MAY JUST HOLD MAXES AT OR BELOW 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...

A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS MORNING OVER LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AND BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

//DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FUNNEL INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRUSH THE I 94 TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERED...BUT SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT...ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK. TO
THE NORTH...ISOLATED SHRAS WILL REMAIN HIT/MISS INTO PARTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED. THAT
SAID...A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS WITH APPROACHING
WAVE WILL LIMIT THIS PROCESS TO SOME EXTENT. BY MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 020758
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND HELP FOCUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...OVER ABOUT THE SOUTH 1/2 OF THE AREA. THE EARLY MORNING
OBSERVATION PACKAGE AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A FEW THINGS
AT WORK IN SUPPORT OF THE RAIN PATTERN. THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR LIFT GENERATED BY A SHEARED WAVE
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KT UPPER JET AXIS. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL FORCE A BACKGROUND OF LARGER SCALE LIFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
FRONTOGENESIS ARE NOT SURPRISINGLY ON THE NOISY SIDE GIVEN THE
OVERALL LACK OF BAROCLINICITY BUT THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
DOES RESPOND WITH SOME CONTRACTION AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE FORCING OF THE WAVE. COMBINE THAT WITH SOME LATE NIGHT
NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXPANSION OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT CHUGS THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BEFORE SUNRISE...AND PARCELS
BECOMING SURFACE BASED DURING THE MORNING FOR A BETTER CHANCE...BUT
THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE TAILING OFF DURING THE
REST OF THE DAY. SURFACE TO 925 MB DRY AIR ADVECTION IS ON THE WEAK
SIDE BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME MID TO UPPER
50S DEWPOINT AIR AVAILABLE TO FILTER INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY MID
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOSTER A DECREASING CLOUD TREND THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A SHALLOW AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE A HEAVY DEW THAN FOG
AS MIN TEMPS SETTLE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592-595 DAM AT 500 MB) OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN LYING ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISE TO AROUND 590 DAM NEAR THE OHIO BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG 500 MB UPPER WAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A WARM UP AS ELEVATED WARM AIR DESCENDS OFF THE
ROCKIES AND STREAMS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. 700 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMING INTO THE LOWER TEENS ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL HELP CAP ACTIVITY. ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT
CLEANLY LIFTS NORTH OF SOUTHERN LOWE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 DEGREES AS 850 MB TEMPS
OF +20 C ARE ADVERTISED...PER 00Z EURO. TIMING DIFFERENCES
(EURO/GFS/CANADIAN) ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...AND COULD SEE
A 10 DEGREE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT...BUT OVERALL HIGHS IN THE
80S SHOULD SUFFICE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH...AS LI`S PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
-5 TO -10 C.  COOLING MID LEVELS (700 MB) ERODING THE CAP...BUT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (700-500 MB) WILL ALSO BE DIMINISHING.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL OFFER UP A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...AS 850 MB ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN IN THE MID
SINGLE NUMBERS...WHICH MAY JUST HOLD MAXES AT OR BELOW 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...

A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS MORNING OVER LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AND BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

//DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FUNNEL INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRUSH THE I 94 TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERED...BUT SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT...ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK. TO
THE NORTH...ISOLATED SHRAS WILL REMAIN HIT/MISS INTO PARTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED. THAT
SAID...A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS WITH APPROACHING
WAVE WILL LIMIT THIS PROCESS TO SOME EXTENT. BY MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KAPX 020734
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WITH QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS ITS APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINDY AND WARM
WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...MUCH MORE TAME WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH REALLY. MAYBE A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO FROM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN A TRANSITION TO A
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME...AS OUR TROUBLESOME STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY`S ACTIVE WEATHER HAS LIFTED INTO QUEBEC...
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING RESIDES
OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...FEATURING ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...TIED TO A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA.

THAT FEATURE WILL BE OF MOST INTEREST FOR US FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AS IT DELIVERS NOTABLE COOLING IN THE 600-500MB
LAYER...MAINLY AFTER 19Z. THAT IN TURN WILL HELP STEEPEN LOWER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS 7.5C/KM ABOVE 850MB. WORKING IN TANDEM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND INLAND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...CAN FORESEE
LOCALIZED STRONGER CONVERGENCE RESIDING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
AS WELL AS INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANYTHING TERRIBLY GREAT...WITH MAYBE
UP TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED...WHILE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING INTO A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS
ALOFT LIKELY LOWERS DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BACK THROUGH
THE MID (LOWER?) 50S. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SETUP AND ARRIVAL OF
COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FEEL COMPELLED TO CONTINUE WITH
LOWER POPS...STEERING THINGS MORE TOWARD ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING
AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW BUT UPSTREAM HISTORY THE PAST 18-24 HOURS
DOES INDICATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ISN`T TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ARRIVAL OF BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD BRING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING OF THE
FLOW...WHILE PERHAPS SOME VESTIGES OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS ROLL
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET WHAT COULD BE A MUCH COOLER NIGHT...WITH LOWS JUST A SHADE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...EYES REMAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR STORMS...

IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS STILL TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION FOR A LOT OF WIND
AND FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING STILL TO
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE...BUT A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS WED-THU...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. THEN...THE TREND IS MOVING TOWARD A RETURN TO MORE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NE CONUS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: CHANCES/LOCATION FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...HOW MUCH STRATUS
IS AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DO WE HEAT UP...IN WHICH CASE IT;LL
BE BREEZY AND WARM. THEN...THE EVOLUTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO SLIP OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH THAT...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A STRONG WIND AND
STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. KEY HERE: WILL WE DEVELOP THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY:

SHALLOW RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...HOSTILE TO ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCE. RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SE OF NRN MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A WARMER DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTATION OF THE
WEATHER OVER THIS TIME FRAME. PAC NW SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO
WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT DEEPENING AND SHIFTING ALSO INTO ONTARIO. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
DAYBREAK AND THEN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO
1.5" INTO THURSDAY MORNING...30KT LLJ DIRECTED AT US...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO 6.5 C/KM ARRIVING..WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG DEVELOPING.
WHILE THE BETTER INGREDIENTS WILL BE WEST OF US...SEEING DECAYING
NOCTURNAL MCS/STORMS TRICKLING INTO WESTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOW FAR EAST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION GETS IS ONE ISSUE.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE NW HALF OF THE CWA COULD BE
AFFECTED...WHILE THERE IS OUR OMNIPRESENT CONCERN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH RESULTS IN PROBLEMS FOR SEEING SUNSHINE AND
WARMING INTO THE DAY. NOTHING DIFFERENT HERE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND GOTTA BELIEVE WITH THE SUN
ANGLE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
THE LIKELY RESULT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS SEEMS
LESS IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...ASSUMING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POTENTIAL
MORNING CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL START
TO MAXIMIZE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REALLY STRENGTHEN WITH A
70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A 45KT H8 LLJ.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE THERE...AND THEN LAY OVER INTO
EASTERN UPPER...POSSIBLY FAR NRN LOWER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AND
EVEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
UNDERGO IT`S TYPICAL DECLINE AFTER SUNSET...SO TAPPING ALL THAT WIND
MAY PROVE TO BE MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP ALL EYES FOCUSED ON THE TIMING...IF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
CAN ARRIVE EARLIER...WE ARE LOOKING AT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. LIKELY SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND AHEAD AND ALONG THE SFC
FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DROP SE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET WITH SUN BREAKING OUT THURSDAY AND GUSTY SW
WINDS 20MPH...MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. HIGHS FRIDAY DIPPING BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND DEPENDING ON FRONTAL POSITION...AS
WARM AS THE LOWER 80S NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:

DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAIN CHANNEL OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
LIFTING NORTH. THIS DOES NOT DRIVE ANY FURTHER SHORTWAVE OUR
WAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN/LINGERS OVER THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER HALF OF
THE 60S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION UP UNTIL SUNRISE. A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY
DEVELOP AROUND MBL AND PLN...AND HONESTLY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...AS
WINDS GO LIGHT BUT THE GROUND REMAINS MOIST. AN APPROACHING WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND APN. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRUSHES THROUGH THE LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...HOLDING FROM THAT DIRECTION
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY TOWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020734
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WITH QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS ITS APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINDY AND WARM
WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...MUCH MORE TAME WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH REALLY. MAYBE A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO FROM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN A TRANSITION TO A
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME...AS OUR TROUBLESOME STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY`S ACTIVE WEATHER HAS LIFTED INTO QUEBEC...
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING RESIDES
OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...FEATURING ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...TIED TO A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA.

THAT FEATURE WILL BE OF MOST INTEREST FOR US FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AS IT DELIVERS NOTABLE COOLING IN THE 600-500MB
LAYER...MAINLY AFTER 19Z. THAT IN TURN WILL HELP STEEPEN LOWER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS 7.5C/KM ABOVE 850MB. WORKING IN TANDEM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND INLAND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...CAN FORESEE
LOCALIZED STRONGER CONVERGENCE RESIDING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
AS WELL AS INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANYTHING TERRIBLY GREAT...WITH MAYBE
UP TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED...WHILE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING INTO A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS
ALOFT LIKELY LOWERS DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BACK THROUGH
THE MID (LOWER?) 50S. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SETUP AND ARRIVAL OF
COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FEEL COMPELLED TO CONTINUE WITH
LOWER POPS...STEERING THINGS MORE TOWARD ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING
AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW BUT UPSTREAM HISTORY THE PAST 18-24 HOURS
DOES INDICATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ISN`T TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ARRIVAL OF BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD BRING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING OF THE
FLOW...WHILE PERHAPS SOME VESTIGES OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS ROLL
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET WHAT COULD BE A MUCH COOLER NIGHT...WITH LOWS JUST A SHADE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...EYES REMAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR STORMS...

IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS STILL TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION FOR A LOT OF WIND
AND FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING STILL TO
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE...BUT A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS WED-THU...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. THEN...THE TREND IS MOVING TOWARD A RETURN TO MORE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NE CONUS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: CHANCES/LOCATION FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...HOW MUCH STRATUS
IS AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DO WE HEAT UP...IN WHICH CASE IT;LL
BE BREEZY AND WARM. THEN...THE EVOLUTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO SLIP OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH THAT...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A STRONG WIND AND
STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. KEY HERE: WILL WE DEVELOP THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY:

SHALLOW RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...HOSTILE TO ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCE. RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SE OF NRN MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A WARMER DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTATION OF THE
WEATHER OVER THIS TIME FRAME. PAC NW SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO
WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT DEEPENING AND SHIFTING ALSO INTO ONTARIO. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
DAYBREAK AND THEN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO
1.5" INTO THURSDAY MORNING...30KT LLJ DIRECTED AT US...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO 6.5 C/KM ARRIVING..WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG DEVELOPING.
WHILE THE BETTER INGREDIENTS WILL BE WEST OF US...SEEING DECAYING
NOCTURNAL MCS/STORMS TRICKLING INTO WESTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOW FAR EAST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION GETS IS ONE ISSUE.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE NW HALF OF THE CWA COULD BE
AFFECTED...WHILE THERE IS OUR OMNIPRESENT CONCERN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH RESULTS IN PROBLEMS FOR SEEING SUNSHINE AND
WARMING INTO THE DAY. NOTHING DIFFERENT HERE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND GOTTA BELIEVE WITH THE SUN
ANGLE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
THE LIKELY RESULT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS SEEMS
LESS IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...ASSUMING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POTENTIAL
MORNING CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL START
TO MAXIMIZE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REALLY STRENGTHEN WITH A
70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A 45KT H8 LLJ.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE THERE...AND THEN LAY OVER INTO
EASTERN UPPER...POSSIBLY FAR NRN LOWER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AND
EVEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
UNDERGO IT`S TYPICAL DECLINE AFTER SUNSET...SO TAPPING ALL THAT WIND
MAY PROVE TO BE MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP ALL EYES FOCUSED ON THE TIMING...IF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
CAN ARRIVE EARLIER...WE ARE LOOKING AT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. LIKELY SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND AHEAD AND ALONG THE SFC
FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DROP SE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET WITH SUN BREAKING OUT THURSDAY AND GUSTY SW
WINDS 20MPH...MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. HIGHS FRIDAY DIPPING BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND DEPENDING ON FRONTAL POSITION...AS
WARM AS THE LOWER 80S NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:

DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAIN CHANNEL OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
LIFTING NORTH. THIS DOES NOT DRIVE ANY FURTHER SHORTWAVE OUR
WAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN/LINGERS OVER THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER HALF OF
THE 60S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION UP UNTIL SUNRISE. A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY
DEVELOP AROUND MBL AND PLN...AND HONESTLY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...AS
WINDS GO LIGHT BUT THE GROUND REMAINS MOIST. AN APPROACHING WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND APN. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRUSHES THROUGH THE LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...HOLDING FROM THAT DIRECTION
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY TOWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 020729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
READINGS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SURGING WELL INTO THE 80S. A COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NIL TODAY WITH A COOL FRONT STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 07Z...BUT IT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS OF 07Z. HAVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON TO DRY/ISOLATED AS DEW POINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WARM FRONT SURGING OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO NUDGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUMPED CHANCES UP SOME
ALREADY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. SOLID MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOTED AT 850MB/S. THE 850MB DEW POINT ADVECTION SEEN IN ALL THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME USUALLY EQUATES TO SOLID COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE LI/S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FEEL WE MAY BE STABILIZED BY MORNING CONVECTION SOME. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...HAVE CHANCES RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THURSDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT PLAYING IT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WE COULD PUSH TO AROUND 90 THOUGH IF BETTER SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY MVFR OR IFR VISBYS/CIGS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY SOUTHEAST OF GRR.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VISBYS AND A FEW SHOWERS
TO CLIP MAINLY KJXN DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY FURTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN LWR MI.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AT ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER
ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WAVES FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY COULD BE A BEACH
HAZARDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM BEACH
WEATHER AND LARGE WAVES/DANGEROUS CURRENTS. IT WOULD BE ANOTHER
SOUTH FLOW EVENT WHERE WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL. THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM A 180 DEGREE WIND AND A WIND DIRECTION
FROM 210 DEGREES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LABOR DAY/S RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT REALLY
NO CONCERNS AS THE RISES WERE ALL WELL WITHIN BANK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE










000
FXUS63 KMQT 020522
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN ACTIVE MID-RANGE FORECAST AHEAD WITH A STRONG EARLY-FALL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THEN ARRIVE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ALBERTA IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...CLIPPING THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER ALBERTA WEDNESDAY WILL BE INDUCING A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY DOES
NOT LINE UP WELL WITH THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER OVER LAND SHOULD RESULT
IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL WAA.
WITH INCREASING 850 HPA TEMPS TO 14 TO 16C AND SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WHILE A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
WAA IN THE AFTERNOON...POPS WERE CUT BACK FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
MINIMAL OVERALL SUPPORT IN THE REGION. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS
SURPASSING 1.7 INCHES...THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ...AND IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310K THETA SFCS ALL POINT TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. GREATER
THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER AN AREA. WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
50KTS...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...AOA 13KFT.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN JUST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER ELEVATED
STORMS.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STALLING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW AT THIS POINT TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE LEANS TO THE FORMER
IDEA. WITH THAT SAID...LAKE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S AT
THIS POINT SUPPORT A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKE.

THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
UPON ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THINK THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT A DECENT AMOUNT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THE EAST IS A
LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS ON THE COOLER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS. THE MID-RANGE MODEL SUITE...EXCLUDING
THE GEM...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE FRONTS PROGRESSION...WITH IT
REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z.

A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 5KFT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONGEST
FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK. A POOL
OF MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE INTERIOR WESTERN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS OF 50KTS FROM MAINLY SPEED SHEAR WILL
LIE NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE STRUCTURES ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN FOCUS ATTM IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLEARING CAN HELP WEAKEN THE CAP AHEAD OF THE
SFC FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THURSDAY EVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS
IT ENTERS A LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY.
COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY BRING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT A DECENT AMOUNT BY THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IMPINGING ON A LINGERING SFC
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 1 TO 4C
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO SEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

REMAINING MOISTURE WILL THEN DEPART THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. LOW PWATS OF UNDER 0.4 INCH AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME COOL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE INTERIOR WEST.
FAVORED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS INDICATING LOW 40S. GIVEN THE
SET-UP...HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE. IN FACT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS FALL WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE COLDER
LOCATIONS.

A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LIMITED FORCING
REMAINING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THESE CLOUDS...SO DID NOT LOWER TEMPS AS MUCH AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MORE TEMPS AROUND 40 FOR COLDER LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS
POINT...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 020522
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN ACTIVE MID-RANGE FORECAST AHEAD WITH A STRONG EARLY-FALL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THEN ARRIVE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ALBERTA IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...CLIPPING THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER ALBERTA WEDNESDAY WILL BE INDUCING A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY DOES
NOT LINE UP WELL WITH THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER OVER LAND SHOULD RESULT
IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL WAA.
WITH INCREASING 850 HPA TEMPS TO 14 TO 16C AND SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WHILE A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
WAA IN THE AFTERNOON...POPS WERE CUT BACK FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
MINIMAL OVERALL SUPPORT IN THE REGION. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS
SURPASSING 1.7 INCHES...THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ...AND IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310K THETA SFCS ALL POINT TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. GREATER
THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER AN AREA. WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
50KTS...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...AOA 13KFT.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN JUST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER ELEVATED
STORMS.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STALLING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW AT THIS POINT TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE LEANS TO THE FORMER
IDEA. WITH THAT SAID...LAKE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S AT
THIS POINT SUPPORT A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKE.

THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
UPON ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THINK THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT A DECENT AMOUNT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THE EAST IS A
LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS ON THE COOLER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS. THE MID-RANGE MODEL SUITE...EXCLUDING
THE GEM...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE FRONTS PROGRESSION...WITH IT
REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z.

A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 5KFT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONGEST
FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK. A POOL
OF MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE INTERIOR WESTERN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS OF 50KTS FROM MAINLY SPEED SHEAR WILL
LIE NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE STRUCTURES ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN FOCUS ATTM IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLEARING CAN HELP WEAKEN THE CAP AHEAD OF THE
SFC FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THURSDAY EVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS
IT ENTERS A LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY.
COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY BRING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT A DECENT AMOUNT BY THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IMPINGING ON A LINGERING SFC
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 1 TO 4C
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO SEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

REMAINING MOISTURE WILL THEN DEPART THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. LOW PWATS OF UNDER 0.4 INCH AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME COOL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE INTERIOR WEST.
FAVORED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS INDICATING LOW 40S. GIVEN THE
SET-UP...HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE. IN FACT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS FALL WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE COLDER
LOCATIONS.

A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LIMITED FORCING
REMAINING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THESE CLOUDS...SO DID NOT LOWER TEMPS AS MUCH AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MORE TEMPS AROUND 40 FOR COLDER LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS
POINT...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KAPX 020518
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
118 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION UP UNTIL SUNRISE. A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY
DEVELOP AROUND MBL AND PLN...AND HONESTLY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...AS
WINDS GO LIGHT BUT THE GROUND REMAINS MOIST. AN APPROACHING WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND APN. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020518
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
118 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION UP UNTIL SUNRISE. A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY
DEVELOP AROUND MBL AND PLN...AND HONESTLY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...AS
WINDS GO LIGHT BUT THE GROUND REMAINS MOIST. AN APPROACHING WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND APN. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KDTX 020358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FUNNEL INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRUSH THE I 94 TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERED...BUT SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT...ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK. TO
THE NORTH...ISOLATED SHRAS WILL REMAIN HIT/MISS INTO PARTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED. THAT
SAID...A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS WITH APPROACHING
WAVE WILL LIMIT THIS PROCESS TO SOME EXTENT. BY MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 244 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

18Z SPECIAL CONFIRMS THE WARMER COLUMN DEPICTED BY THE RAP AND THEN
SOME. 900MB INVERSION IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN DEPICTED BY
THE GUIDANCE AS IS THE 600MB CAP. THUS, EVEN THE MOST TAME
DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION IN THE NWP ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
CONCERNS REGARDING CAPPING NOTED IN THE MORNING UPDATE ARE
CONFIRMED. UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23
WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH THE LINE
ALREADY MARCHING TOWARD THIS AREA, EXPECT THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 1.5KM WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS CARRYING A LOW-END SEVERE WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION,
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE REMAINS IN
TACT. FOR REMAINING AREAS, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A GUST TO 40
MPH. IN ADDITION, BACKED OFF ON POPS AS EARLIER SUSPICIONS REGARDING
COVERAGE POTENTIAL STILL LOOM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PROMOTE EXPANSION OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW AND FORCING TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANY LEGITIMATE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A SHEARING SHORTWAVE NOT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING PER 12Z GUIDANCE, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AT
THAT, NOTHING MORE THAN A CHC POP IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO START OUT TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS A SLUG OF 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL FALL GIVEN THE PUSH
OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HAS THE DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN A BIT SOONER THAN THE 00Z RUNS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
THE FORECAST A BIT DRIER TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THERE ISN`T A LARGE
PUSH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MEANING DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO GET AROUND 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMMENCES ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
REGION-WIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
/POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WILL BE FRIDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS (85/70
T/TD) IS IN PLACE ALONG WITH FORECASTED CAPE OF 3000 J/KG. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KT IN THE 1-6 KM LAYER AS WELL. THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A RAGGED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
STATE. THIS BRINGS A TRIPLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 020358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FUNNEL INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRUSH THE I 94 TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERED...BUT SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT...ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK. TO
THE NORTH...ISOLATED SHRAS WILL REMAIN HIT/MISS INTO PARTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED. THAT
SAID...A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS WITH APPROACHING
WAVE WILL LIMIT THIS PROCESS TO SOME EXTENT. BY MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 244 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

18Z SPECIAL CONFIRMS THE WARMER COLUMN DEPICTED BY THE RAP AND THEN
SOME. 900MB INVERSION IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN DEPICTED BY
THE GUIDANCE AS IS THE 600MB CAP. THUS, EVEN THE MOST TAME
DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION IN THE NWP ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
CONCERNS REGARDING CAPPING NOTED IN THE MORNING UPDATE ARE
CONFIRMED. UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23
WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH THE LINE
ALREADY MARCHING TOWARD THIS AREA, EXPECT THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 1.5KM WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS CARRYING A LOW-END SEVERE WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION,
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE REMAINS IN
TACT. FOR REMAINING AREAS, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A GUST TO 40
MPH. IN ADDITION, BACKED OFF ON POPS AS EARLIER SUSPICIONS REGARDING
COVERAGE POTENTIAL STILL LOOM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PROMOTE EXPANSION OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW AND FORCING TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANY LEGITIMATE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A SHEARING SHORTWAVE NOT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING PER 12Z GUIDANCE, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AT
THAT, NOTHING MORE THAN A CHC POP IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO START OUT TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS A SLUG OF 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL FALL GIVEN THE PUSH
OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HAS THE DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN A BIT SOONER THAN THE 00Z RUNS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
THE FORECAST A BIT DRIER TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THERE ISN`T A LARGE
PUSH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MEANING DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO GET AROUND 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMMENCES ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
REGION-WIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
/POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WILL BE FRIDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS (85/70
T/TD) IS IN PLACE ALONG WITH FORECASTED CAPE OF 3000 J/KG. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KT IN THE 1-6 KM LAYER AS WELL. THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A RAGGED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
STATE. THIS BRINGS A TRIPLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 020358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FUNNEL INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRUSH THE I 94 TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERED...BUT SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT...ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK. TO
THE NORTH...ISOLATED SHRAS WILL REMAIN HIT/MISS INTO PARTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED. THAT
SAID...A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS WITH APPROACHING
WAVE WILL LIMIT THIS PROCESS TO SOME EXTENT. BY MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 244 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

18Z SPECIAL CONFIRMS THE WARMER COLUMN DEPICTED BY THE RAP AND THEN
SOME. 900MB INVERSION IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN DEPICTED BY
THE GUIDANCE AS IS THE 600MB CAP. THUS, EVEN THE MOST TAME
DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION IN THE NWP ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
CONCERNS REGARDING CAPPING NOTED IN THE MORNING UPDATE ARE
CONFIRMED. UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23
WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH THE LINE
ALREADY MARCHING TOWARD THIS AREA, EXPECT THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 1.5KM WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS CARRYING A LOW-END SEVERE WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION,
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE REMAINS IN
TACT. FOR REMAINING AREAS, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A GUST TO 40
MPH. IN ADDITION, BACKED OFF ON POPS AS EARLIER SUSPICIONS REGARDING
COVERAGE POTENTIAL STILL LOOM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PROMOTE EXPANSION OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW AND FORCING TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANY LEGITIMATE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A SHEARING SHORTWAVE NOT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING PER 12Z GUIDANCE, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AT
THAT, NOTHING MORE THAN A CHC POP IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO START OUT TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS A SLUG OF 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL FALL GIVEN THE PUSH
OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HAS THE DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN A BIT SOONER THAN THE 00Z RUNS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
THE FORECAST A BIT DRIER TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THERE ISN`T A LARGE
PUSH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MEANING DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO GET AROUND 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMMENCES ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
REGION-WIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
/POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WILL BE FRIDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS (85/70
T/TD) IS IN PLACE ALONG WITH FORECASTED CAPE OF 3000 J/KG. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KT IN THE 1-6 KM LAYER AS WELL. THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A RAGGED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
STATE. THIS BRINGS A TRIPLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 020358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FUNNEL INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRUSH THE I 94 TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERED...BUT SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT...ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK. TO
THE NORTH...ISOLATED SHRAS WILL REMAIN HIT/MISS INTO PARTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED. THAT
SAID...A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS WITH APPROACHING
WAVE WILL LIMIT THIS PROCESS TO SOME EXTENT. BY MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 244 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

18Z SPECIAL CONFIRMS THE WARMER COLUMN DEPICTED BY THE RAP AND THEN
SOME. 900MB INVERSION IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN DEPICTED BY
THE GUIDANCE AS IS THE 600MB CAP. THUS, EVEN THE MOST TAME
DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION IN THE NWP ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
CONCERNS REGARDING CAPPING NOTED IN THE MORNING UPDATE ARE
CONFIRMED. UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23
WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH THE LINE
ALREADY MARCHING TOWARD THIS AREA, EXPECT THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 1.5KM WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS CARRYING A LOW-END SEVERE WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION,
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE REMAINS IN
TACT. FOR REMAINING AREAS, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A GUST TO 40
MPH. IN ADDITION, BACKED OFF ON POPS AS EARLIER SUSPICIONS REGARDING
COVERAGE POTENTIAL STILL LOOM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PROMOTE EXPANSION OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW AND FORCING TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANY LEGITIMATE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A SHEARING SHORTWAVE NOT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING PER 12Z GUIDANCE, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AT
THAT, NOTHING MORE THAN A CHC POP IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO START OUT TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS A SLUG OF 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL FALL GIVEN THE PUSH
OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HAS THE DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN A BIT SOONER THAN THE 00Z RUNS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
THE FORECAST A BIT DRIER TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THERE ISN`T A LARGE
PUSH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MEANING DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO GET AROUND 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMMENCES ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
REGION-WIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
/POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WILL BE FRIDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS (85/70
T/TD) IS IN PLACE ALONG WITH FORECASTED CAPE OF 3000 J/KG. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KT IN THE 1-6 KM LAYER AS WELL. THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A RAGGED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
STATE. THIS BRINGS A TRIPLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 020358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FUNNEL INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRUSH THE I 94 TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERED...BUT SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT...ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK. TO
THE NORTH...ISOLATED SHRAS WILL REMAIN HIT/MISS INTO PARTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED. THAT
SAID...A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS WITH APPROACHING
WAVE WILL LIMIT THIS PROCESS TO SOME EXTENT. BY MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 244 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

18Z SPECIAL CONFIRMS THE WARMER COLUMN DEPICTED BY THE RAP AND THEN
SOME. 900MB INVERSION IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN DEPICTED BY
THE GUIDANCE AS IS THE 600MB CAP. THUS, EVEN THE MOST TAME
DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION IN THE NWP ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
CONCERNS REGARDING CAPPING NOTED IN THE MORNING UPDATE ARE
CONFIRMED. UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23
WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH THE LINE
ALREADY MARCHING TOWARD THIS AREA, EXPECT THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 1.5KM WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS CARRYING A LOW-END SEVERE WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION,
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE REMAINS IN
TACT. FOR REMAINING AREAS, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A GUST TO 40
MPH. IN ADDITION, BACKED OFF ON POPS AS EARLIER SUSPICIONS REGARDING
COVERAGE POTENTIAL STILL LOOM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PROMOTE EXPANSION OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW AND FORCING TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANY LEGITIMATE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A SHEARING SHORTWAVE NOT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING PER 12Z GUIDANCE, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AT
THAT, NOTHING MORE THAN A CHC POP IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO START OUT TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS A SLUG OF 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL FALL GIVEN THE PUSH
OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HAS THE DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN A BIT SOONER THAN THE 00Z RUNS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
THE FORECAST A BIT DRIER TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THERE ISN`T A LARGE
PUSH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MEANING DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO GET AROUND 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMMENCES ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
REGION-WIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
/POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WILL BE FRIDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS (85/70
T/TD) IS IN PLACE ALONG WITH FORECASTED CAPE OF 3000 J/KG. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KT IN THE 1-6 KM LAYER AS WELL. THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A RAGGED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
STATE. THIS BRINGS A TRIPLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 020358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FUNNEL INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRUSH THE I 94 TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERED...BUT SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT...ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK. TO
THE NORTH...ISOLATED SHRAS WILL REMAIN HIT/MISS INTO PARTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED. THAT
SAID...A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS WITH APPROACHING
WAVE WILL LIMIT THIS PROCESS TO SOME EXTENT. BY MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 244 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

18Z SPECIAL CONFIRMS THE WARMER COLUMN DEPICTED BY THE RAP AND THEN
SOME. 900MB INVERSION IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN DEPICTED BY
THE GUIDANCE AS IS THE 600MB CAP. THUS, EVEN THE MOST TAME
DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION IN THE NWP ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
CONCERNS REGARDING CAPPING NOTED IN THE MORNING UPDATE ARE
CONFIRMED. UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23
WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH THE LINE
ALREADY MARCHING TOWARD THIS AREA, EXPECT THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 1.5KM WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS CARRYING A LOW-END SEVERE WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION,
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE REMAINS IN
TACT. FOR REMAINING AREAS, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A GUST TO 40
MPH. IN ADDITION, BACKED OFF ON POPS AS EARLIER SUSPICIONS REGARDING
COVERAGE POTENTIAL STILL LOOM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PROMOTE EXPANSION OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW AND FORCING TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANY LEGITIMATE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A SHEARING SHORTWAVE NOT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING PER 12Z GUIDANCE, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AT
THAT, NOTHING MORE THAN A CHC POP IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO START OUT TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS A SLUG OF 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL FALL GIVEN THE PUSH
OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HAS THE DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN A BIT SOONER THAN THE 00Z RUNS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
THE FORECAST A BIT DRIER TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THERE ISN`T A LARGE
PUSH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MEANING DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO GET AROUND 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMMENCES ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
REGION-WIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
/POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WILL BE FRIDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS (85/70
T/TD) IS IN PLACE ALONG WITH FORECASTED CAPE OF 3000 J/KG. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KT IN THE 1-6 KM LAYER AS WELL. THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A RAGGED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
STATE. THIS BRINGS A TRIPLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KAPX 020345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. W/NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 020345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. W/NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 020345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. W/NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 020345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. W/NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 020345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. W/NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 020345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. W/NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 020343
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. MAINLY FAIR...WARM...AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MUGGY AIR RETURNS WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LOWER POPS. STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME
CONVECTION FROM WISCONSIN MAY MOVE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING. THEN
LATE TONIGHT SOME PCPN MAY MOVE NWD INTO THE FAR SE CWA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
U.S. ROUTE 127 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT SHALLOW DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEPER UPPER DIVERGENCE...INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES WITH THE LINE OF
SHOWERS.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE FOR KLAN DOWN
TOWARDS KJXN WITH CAPE OF ~1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
35-40 KTS...BUT THE DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE/LF EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED JETLET ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT...IT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES/UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE PRETTY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEXT SYSTEM ALSO PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH MUGGY AIRMASS RETURNING LATE ON THU. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/T-STORMS EARLY THU ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND
LOW LEVEL JET. NEXT CHANCE WOULD THEN FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT.

OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE PRESENT
ONE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE OF 1000J/KG+ AND MARGINALLY HIGH BULK SHEAR BUT
THE DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS NORTH OF US ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY MVFR OR IFR VISBYS/CIGS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY SOUTHEAST OF GRR.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VISBYS AND A FEW SHOWERS
TO CLIP MAINLY KJXN DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY FURTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN LWR MI.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AT ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER
ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING.  WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ONSHORE AT
THIS TIME AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. BUOYS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 TO 6 FOOTERS. ALL
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 3 FT BY LATE EVENING. WE`LL LIKELY SEE A
REPEAT OF WIND/WAVES WITH NEXT SYSTEM THU INTO FRI.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB







000
FXUS63 KGRR 020343
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. MAINLY FAIR...WARM...AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MUGGY AIR RETURNS WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LOWER POPS. STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME
CONVECTION FROM WISCONSIN MAY MOVE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING. THEN
LATE TONIGHT SOME PCPN MAY MOVE NWD INTO THE FAR SE CWA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
U.S. ROUTE 127 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT SHALLOW DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEPER UPPER DIVERGENCE...INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES WITH THE LINE OF
SHOWERS.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE FOR KLAN DOWN
TOWARDS KJXN WITH CAPE OF ~1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
35-40 KTS...BUT THE DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE/LF EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED JETLET ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT...IT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES/UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE PRETTY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEXT SYSTEM ALSO PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH MUGGY AIRMASS RETURNING LATE ON THU. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/T-STORMS EARLY THU ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND
LOW LEVEL JET. NEXT CHANCE WOULD THEN FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT.

OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE PRESENT
ONE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE OF 1000J/KG+ AND MARGINALLY HIGH BULK SHEAR BUT
THE DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS NORTH OF US ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY MVFR OR IFR VISBYS/CIGS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY SOUTHEAST OF GRR.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VISBYS AND A FEW SHOWERS
TO CLIP MAINLY KJXN DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY FURTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN LWR MI.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AT ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER
ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING.  WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ONSHORE AT
THIS TIME AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. BUOYS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 TO 6 FOOTERS. ALL
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 3 FT BY LATE EVENING. WE`LL LIKELY SEE A
REPEAT OF WIND/WAVES WITH NEXT SYSTEM THU INTO FRI.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB








000
FXUS63 KGRR 020343
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. MAINLY FAIR...WARM...AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MUGGY AIR RETURNS WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LOWER POPS. STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME
CONVECTION FROM WISCONSIN MAY MOVE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING. THEN
LATE TONIGHT SOME PCPN MAY MOVE NWD INTO THE FAR SE CWA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
U.S. ROUTE 127 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT SHALLOW DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEPER UPPER DIVERGENCE...INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES WITH THE LINE OF
SHOWERS.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE FOR KLAN DOWN
TOWARDS KJXN WITH CAPE OF ~1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
35-40 KTS...BUT THE DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE/LF EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED JETLET ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT...IT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES/UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE PRETTY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEXT SYSTEM ALSO PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH MUGGY AIRMASS RETURNING LATE ON THU. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/T-STORMS EARLY THU ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND
LOW LEVEL JET. NEXT CHANCE WOULD THEN FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT.

OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE PRESENT
ONE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE OF 1000J/KG+ AND MARGINALLY HIGH BULK SHEAR BUT
THE DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS NORTH OF US ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY MVFR OR IFR VISBYS/CIGS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY SOUTHEAST OF GRR.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VISBYS AND A FEW SHOWERS
TO CLIP MAINLY KJXN DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY FURTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN LWR MI.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AT ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER
ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING.  WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ONSHORE AT
THIS TIME AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. BUOYS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 TO 6 FOOTERS. ALL
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 3 FT BY LATE EVENING. WE`LL LIKELY SEE A
REPEAT OF WIND/WAVES WITH NEXT SYSTEM THU INTO FRI.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB








000
FXUS63 KGRR 012359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. MAINLY FAIR...WARM...AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MUGGY AIR RETURNS WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LOWER POPS. STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME
CONVECTION FROM WISCONSIN MAY MOVE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING. THEN
LATE TONIGHT SOME PCPN MAY MOVE NWD INTO THE FAR SE CWA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
U.S. ROUTE 127 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT SHALLOW DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEPER UPPER DIVERGENCE...INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES WITH THE LINE OF
SHOWERS.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE FOR KLAN DOWN
TOWARDS KJXN WITH CAPE OF ~1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
35-40 KTS...BUT THE DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE/LF EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED JETLET ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT...IT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES/UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE PRETTY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEXT SYSTEM ALSO PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH MUGGY AIRMASS RETURNING LATE ON THU. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/T-STORMS EARLY THU ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND
LOW LEVEL JET. NEXT CHANCE WOULD THEN FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT.

OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE PRESENT
ONE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE OF 1000J/KG+ AND MARGINALLY HIGH BULK SHEAR BUT
THE DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS NORTH OF US ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TSTM BUT THE RISK IS TOO
LOW TO HAVE IN THE TAFS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MVFR OR EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
06Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR WHERE DEW PTS SHOULD STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GOING AGAINST THE FORMATION
OF LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING OVER SRN LWR MI 06Z-12Z
RELATED TO CONVECTION PASSING SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

THE OTHER QUESTION FOR LATE TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT SE LWR MI
GETS CLIPPED BY THE RAIN PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH. DECIDED TO GO
WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT JXN 11Z-15Z BASED ON CONSENSUS
OF LATEST GUIDANCE.

VFR IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY ONCE ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MIXES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING.  WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ONSHORE AT
THIS TIME AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. BUOYS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 TO 6 FOOTERS. ALL
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 3 FT BY LATE EVENING. WE`LL LIKELY SEE A
REPEAT OF WIND/WAVES WITH NEXT SYSTEM THU INTO FRI.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 012359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. MAINLY FAIR...WARM...AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MUGGY AIR RETURNS WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LOWER POPS. STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME
CONVECTION FROM WISCONSIN MAY MOVE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING. THEN
LATE TONIGHT SOME PCPN MAY MOVE NWD INTO THE FAR SE CWA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
U.S. ROUTE 127 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT SHALLOW DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEPER UPPER DIVERGENCE...INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES WITH THE LINE OF
SHOWERS.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE FOR KLAN DOWN
TOWARDS KJXN WITH CAPE OF ~1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
35-40 KTS...BUT THE DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE/LF EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED JETLET ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT...IT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES/UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE PRETTY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEXT SYSTEM ALSO PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH MUGGY AIRMASS RETURNING LATE ON THU. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/T-STORMS EARLY THU ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND
LOW LEVEL JET. NEXT CHANCE WOULD THEN FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT.

OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE PRESENT
ONE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE OF 1000J/KG+ AND MARGINALLY HIGH BULK SHEAR BUT
THE DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS NORTH OF US ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TSTM BUT THE RISK IS TOO
LOW TO HAVE IN THE TAFS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MVFR OR EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
06Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR WHERE DEW PTS SHOULD STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GOING AGAINST THE FORMATION
OF LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING OVER SRN LWR MI 06Z-12Z
RELATED TO CONVECTION PASSING SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

THE OTHER QUESTION FOR LATE TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT SE LWR MI
GETS CLIPPED BY THE RAIN PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH. DECIDED TO GO
WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT JXN 11Z-15Z BASED ON CONSENSUS
OF LATEST GUIDANCE.

VFR IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY ONCE ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MIXES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING.  WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ONSHORE AT
THIS TIME AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. BUOYS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 TO 6 FOOTERS. ALL
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 3 FT BY LATE EVENING. WE`LL LIKELY SEE A
REPEAT OF WIND/WAVES WITH NEXT SYSTEM THU INTO FRI.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 012325
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN ACTIVE MID-RANGE FORECAST AHEAD WITH A STRONG EARLY-FALL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THEN ARRIVE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ALBERTA IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...CLIPPING THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER ALBERTA WEDNESDAY WILL BE INDUCING A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY DOES
NOT LINE UP WELL WITH THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER OVER LAND SHOULD RESULT
IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL WAA.
WITH INCREASING 850 HPA TEMPS TO 14 TO 16C AND SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WHILE A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
WAA IN THE AFTERNOON...POPS WERE CUT BACK FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
MINIMAL OVERALL SUPPORT IN THE REGION. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS
SURPASSING 1.7 INCHES...THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ...AND IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310K THETA SFCS ALL POINT TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. GREATER
THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER AN AREA. WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
50KTS...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...AOA 13KFT.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN JUST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER ELEVATED
STORMS.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STALLING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW AT THIS POINT TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE LEANS TO THE FORMER
IDEA. WITH THAT SAID...LAKE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S AT
THIS POINT SUPPORT A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKE.

THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
UPON ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THINK THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT A DECENT AMOUNT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THE EAST IS A
LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS ON THE COOLER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS. THE MID-RANGE MODEL SUITE...EXCLUDING
THE GEM...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE FRONTS PROGRESSION...WITH IT
REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z.

A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 5KFT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONGEST
FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK. A POOL
OF MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE INTERIOR WESTERN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS OF 50KTS FROM MAINLY SPEED SHEAR WILL
LIE NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE STRUCTURES ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN FOCUS ATTM IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLEARING CAN HELP WEAKEN THE CAP AHEAD OF THE
SFC FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THURSDAY EVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS
IT ENTERS A LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY.
COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY BRING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT A DECENT AMOUNT BY THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IMPINGING ON A LINGERING SFC
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 1 TO 4C
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO SEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

REMAINING MOISTURE WILL THEN DEPART THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. LOW PWATS OF UNDER 0.4 INCH AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME COOL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE INTERIOR WEST.
FAVORED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS INDICATING LOW 40S. GIVEN THE
SET-UP...HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE. IN FACT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS FALL WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE COLDER
LOCATIONS.

A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LIMITED FORCING
REMAINING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THESE CLOUDS...SO DID NOT LOWER TEMPS AS MUCH AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MORE TEMPS AROUND 40 FOR COLDER LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS
POINT...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH THE SLOW
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING COLD FNT. GUSTY W
WINDS AT CMX WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME -SHRA TO MAINLY SAW ON TUE AFTN...BUT
EXPECTED DRY LLVL AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE
-SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07






000
FXUS63 KAPX 012300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS ALL NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THIS EVENING AS SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE AREA BY 06Z...BRINGING AN
END TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 012300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS ALL NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THIS EVENING AS SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE AREA BY 06Z...BRINGING AN
END TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KDTX 012258
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION WILL BE ENDING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
EVEN AS SURFACE TROUGH IS LAGGING WELL TO THE WEST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR THEN MIXES INTO THE
AREA FROM MID/LATE MORNING TUESDAY ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TIME.

FOR DTW...REMAINING SHRAS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE
MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL AS THIS FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS. OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 07Z
TO 14Z TIME FRAME.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL THRU
01Z THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 244 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

18Z SPECIAL CONFIRMS THE WARMER COLUMN DEPICTED BY THE RAP AND THEN
SOME. 900MB INVERSION IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN DEPICTED BY
THE GUIDANCE AS IS THE 600MB CAP. THUS, EVEN THE MOST TAME
DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION IN THE NWP ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
CONCERNS REGARDING CAPPING NOTED IN THE MORNING UPDATE ARE
CONFIRMED. UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23
WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH THE LINE
ALREADY MARCHING TOWARD THIS AREA, EXPECT THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 1.5KM WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS CARRYING A LOW-END SEVERE WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION,
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE REMAINS IN
TACT. FOR REMAINING AREAS, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A GUST TO 40
MPH. IN ADDITION, BACKED OFF ON POPS AS EARLIER SUSPICIONS REGARDING
COVERAGE POTENTIAL STILL LOOM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PROMOTE EXPANSION OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW AND FORCING TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANY LEGITIMATE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A SHEARING SHORTWAVE NOT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING PER 12Z GUIDANCE, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AT
THAT, NOTHING MORE THAN A CHC POP IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO START OUT TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS A SLUG OF 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL FALL GIVEN THE PUSH
OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HAS THE DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN A BIT SOONER THAN THE 00Z RUNS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
THE FORECAST A BIT DRIER TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THERE ISN`T A LARGE
PUSH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MEANING DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO GET AROUND 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMMENCES ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
REGION-WIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
/POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WILL BE FRIDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS (85/70
T/TD) IS IN PLACE ALONG WITH FORECASTED CAPE OF 3000 J/KG. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KT IN THE 1-6 KM LAYER AS WELL. THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A RAGGED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
STATE. THIS BRINGS A TRIPLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 012258
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION WILL BE ENDING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
EVEN AS SURFACE TROUGH IS LAGGING WELL TO THE WEST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR THEN MIXES INTO THE
AREA FROM MID/LATE MORNING TUESDAY ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TIME.

FOR DTW...REMAINING SHRAS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE
MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL AS THIS FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS. OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 07Z
TO 14Z TIME FRAME.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL THRU
01Z THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 244 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

18Z SPECIAL CONFIRMS THE WARMER COLUMN DEPICTED BY THE RAP AND THEN
SOME. 900MB INVERSION IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN DEPICTED BY
THE GUIDANCE AS IS THE 600MB CAP. THUS, EVEN THE MOST TAME
DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION IN THE NWP ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
CONCERNS REGARDING CAPPING NOTED IN THE MORNING UPDATE ARE
CONFIRMED. UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23
WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH THE LINE
ALREADY MARCHING TOWARD THIS AREA, EXPECT THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 1.5KM WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS CARRYING A LOW-END SEVERE WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION,
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE REMAINS IN
TACT. FOR REMAINING AREAS, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A GUST TO 40
MPH. IN ADDITION, BACKED OFF ON POPS AS EARLIER SUSPICIONS REGARDING
COVERAGE POTENTIAL STILL LOOM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PROMOTE EXPANSION OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW AND FORCING TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANY LEGITIMATE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A SHEARING SHORTWAVE NOT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING PER 12Z GUIDANCE, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AT
THAT, NOTHING MORE THAN A CHC POP IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO START OUT TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS A SLUG OF 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL FALL GIVEN THE PUSH
OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HAS THE DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN A BIT SOONER THAN THE 00Z RUNS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
THE FORECAST A BIT DRIER TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THERE ISN`T A LARGE
PUSH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MEANING DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO GET AROUND 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMMENCES ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
REGION-WIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
/POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WILL BE FRIDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS (85/70
T/TD) IS IN PLACE ALONG WITH FORECASTED CAPE OF 3000 J/KG. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KT IN THE 1-6 KM LAYER AS WELL. THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A RAGGED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
STATE. THIS BRINGS A TRIPLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KGRR 012212
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
612 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAINLY FAIR...WARM...AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MUGGY AIR RETURNS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LOWER POPS. STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME
CONVECTION FROM WISCONSIN MAY MOVE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING. THEN
LATE TONIGHT SOME PCPN MAY MOVE NWD INTO THE FAR SE CWA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
U.S. ROUTE 127 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT SHALLOW DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEPER UPPER DIVERGENCE...INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN INMPRESSIVE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES WITH THE LINE OF
SHOWERS.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE FOR KLAN DOWN
TOWARDS KJXN WITH CAPE OF ~1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
35-40 KTS...BUT THE DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE/LF EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED JETLET ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT...IT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES/UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE PRETTY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEXT SYSTEM ALSO PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH MUGGY AIRMASS RETURNING LATE ON THU. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/T-STORMS EARLY THU ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND
LOW LEVEL JET. NEXT CHANCE WOULD THEN FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT.

OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING SSIMILAR TO THE PRESENT
ONE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE OF 1000J/KG+ AND MARGINALLY HIGH BULK SHEAR BUT
THE DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS NORTH OF US ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH VSBYS
FALLING TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WON/T PASS
THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE KEPT MVFR CIGS IN
THE TAFS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING.  WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ONSHORE AT
THIS TIME AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. BOUYS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 TO 6 FOOTERS. ALL
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 3 FT BY LATE EVENING. WE`LL LIKELY SEE A
REPEAT OF WIND/WAVES WITH NEXT SYSTEM THU INTO FRI.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB







000
FXUS63 KGRR 012212
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
612 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAINLY FAIR...WARM...AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MUGGY AIR RETURNS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LOWER POPS. STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME
CONVECTION FROM WISCONSIN MAY MOVE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING. THEN
LATE TONIGHT SOME PCPN MAY MOVE NWD INTO THE FAR SE CWA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
U.S. ROUTE 127 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT SHALLOW DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEPER UPPER DIVERGENCE...INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN INMPRESSIVE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES WITH THE LINE OF
SHOWERS.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE FOR KLAN DOWN
TOWARDS KJXN WITH CAPE OF ~1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
35-40 KTS...BUT THE DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE/LF EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED JETLET ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT...IT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES/UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE PRETTY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEXT SYSTEM ALSO PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH MUGGY AIRMASS RETURNING LATE ON THU. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/T-STORMS EARLY THU ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND
LOW LEVEL JET. NEXT CHANCE WOULD THEN FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT.

OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING SSIMILAR TO THE PRESENT
ONE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE OF 1000J/KG+ AND MARGINALLY HIGH BULK SHEAR BUT
THE DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS NORTH OF US ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH VSBYS
FALLING TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WON/T PASS
THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE KEPT MVFR CIGS IN
THE TAFS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING.  WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ONSHORE AT
THIS TIME AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. BOUYS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 TO 6 FOOTERS. ALL
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 3 FT BY LATE EVENING. WE`LL LIKELY SEE A
REPEAT OF WIND/WAVES WITH NEXT SYSTEM THU INTO FRI.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 012025
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL IMPACT PLN/APN TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 20Z
OR SO. LINE OF STORMS ALREADY EAST OF TVC/MBL. BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER THAT...A PERIOD OF VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ON TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 012025
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL IMPACT PLN/APN TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 20Z
OR SO. LINE OF STORMS ALREADY EAST OF TVC/MBL. BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER THAT...A PERIOD OF VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ON TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KMQT 011938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN ACTIVE MID-RANGE FORECAST AHEAD WITH A STRONG EARLY-FALL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THEN ARRIVE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ALBERTA IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...CLIPPING THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER ALBERTA WEDNESDAY WILL BE INDUCING A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY DOES
NOT LINE UP WELL WITH THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER OVER LAND SHOULD RESULT
IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL WAA.
WITH INCREASING 850 HPA TEMPS TO 14 TO 16C AND SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WHILE A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
WAA IN THE AFTERNOON...POPS WERE CUT BACK FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
MINIMAL OVERALL SUPPORT IN THE REGION. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS
SURPASSING 1.7 INCHES...THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ...AND IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310K THETA SFCS ALL POINT TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. GREATER
THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER AN AREA. WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
50KTS...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...AOA 13KFT.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN JUST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER ELEVATED
STORMS.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STALLING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW AT THIS POINT TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE LEANS TO THE FORMER
IDEA. WITH THAT SAID...LAKE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S AT
THIS POINT SUPPORT A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKE.

THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
UPON ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THINK THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT A DECENT AMOUNT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THE EAST IS A
LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS ON THE COOLER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS. THE MID-RANGE MODEL SUITE...EXCLUDING
THE GEM...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE FRONTS PROGRESSION...WITH IT
REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z.

A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 5KFT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONGEST
FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK. A POOL
OF MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE INTERIOR WESTERN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS OF 50KTS FROM MAINLY SPEED SHEAR WILL
LIE NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE STRUCTURES ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN FOCUS ATTM IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLEARING CAN HELP WEAKEN THE CAP AHEAD OF THE
SFC FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THURSDAY EVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS
IT ENTERS A LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY.
COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY BRING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT A DECENT AMOUNT BY THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IMPINGING ON A LINGERING SFC
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 1 TO 4C
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO SEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

REMAINING MOISTURE WILL THEN DEPART THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. LOW PWATS OF UNDER 0.4 INCH AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME COOL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE INTERIOR WEST.
FAVORED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS INDICATING LOW 40S. GIVEN THE
SET-UP...HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE. IN FACT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS FALL WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE COLDER
LOCATIONS.

A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LIMITED FORCING
REMAINING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THESE CLOUDS...SO DID NOT LOWER TEMPS AS MUCH AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MORE TEMPS AROUND 40 FOR COLDER LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS
POINT...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND ALLOWS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.

CMX...CONTINUED -SHRA EARLY SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER
AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

SAW...SOME SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W
DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07






000
FXUS63 KMQT 011938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN ACTIVE MID-RANGE FORECAST AHEAD WITH A STRONG EARLY-FALL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THEN ARRIVE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ALBERTA IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...CLIPPING THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER ALBERTA WEDNESDAY WILL BE INDUCING A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY DOES
NOT LINE UP WELL WITH THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER OVER LAND SHOULD RESULT
IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL WAA.
WITH INCREASING 850 HPA TEMPS TO 14 TO 16C AND SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WHILE A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
WAA IN THE AFTERNOON...POPS WERE CUT BACK FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
MINIMAL OVERALL SUPPORT IN THE REGION. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS
SURPASSING 1.7 INCHES...THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ...AND IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310K THETA SFCS ALL POINT TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. GREATER
THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER AN AREA. WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
50KTS...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...AOA 13KFT.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN JUST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER ELEVATED
STORMS.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STALLING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW AT THIS POINT TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE LEANS TO THE FORMER
IDEA. WITH THAT SAID...LAKE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S AT
THIS POINT SUPPORT A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKE.

THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
UPON ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THINK THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT A DECENT AMOUNT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THE EAST IS A
LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS ON THE COOLER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS. THE MID-RANGE MODEL SUITE...EXCLUDING
THE GEM...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE FRONTS PROGRESSION...WITH IT
REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z.

A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 5KFT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONGEST
FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK. A POOL
OF MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE INTERIOR WESTERN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS OF 50KTS FROM MAINLY SPEED SHEAR WILL
LIE NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE STRUCTURES ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN FOCUS ATTM IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLEARING CAN HELP WEAKEN THE CAP AHEAD OF THE
SFC FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THURSDAY EVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS
IT ENTERS A LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY.
COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY BRING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT A DECENT AMOUNT BY THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IMPINGING ON A LINGERING SFC
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 1 TO 4C
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO SEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

REMAINING MOISTURE WILL THEN DEPART THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. LOW PWATS OF UNDER 0.4 INCH AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME COOL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE INTERIOR WEST.
FAVORED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS INDICATING LOW 40S. GIVEN THE
SET-UP...HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE. IN FACT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS FALL WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE COLDER
LOCATIONS.

A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LIMITED FORCING
REMAINING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THESE CLOUDS...SO DID NOT LOWER TEMPS AS MUCH AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MORE TEMPS AROUND 40 FOR COLDER LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS
POINT...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND ALLOWS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.

CMX...CONTINUED -SHRA EARLY SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER
AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

SAW...SOME SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W
DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KGRR 011930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAINLY FAIR...WARM...AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MUGGY AIR RETURNS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
U.S. ROUTE 127 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT SHALLOW DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEPER UPPER DIVERGENCE...INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN INMPRESSIVE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES WITH THE LINE OF
SHOWERS.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE FOR KLAN DOWN
TOWARDS KJXN WITH CAPE OF ~1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
35-40 KTS...BUT THE DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE/LF EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED JETLET ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT...IT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES/UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE PRETTY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEXT SYSTEM ALSO PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH MUGGY AIRMASS RETURNING LATE ON THU. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/T-STORMS EARLY THU ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND
LOW LEVEL JET. NEXT CHANCE WOULD THEN FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT.

OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING SSIMILAR TO THE PRESENT
ONE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE OF 1000J/KG+ AND MARGINALLY HIGH BULK SHEAR BUT
THE DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS NORTH OF US ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH VSBYS
FALLING TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WON/T PASS
THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE KEPT MVFR CIGS IN
THE TAFS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING.  WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ONSHORE AT
THIS TIME AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. BOUYS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 TO 6 FOOTERS. ALL
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 3 FT BY LATE EVENING. WE`LL LIKELY SEE A
REPEAT OF WIND/WAVES WITH NEXT SYSTEM THU INTO FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 011930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAINLY FAIR...WARM...AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MUGGY AIR RETURNS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
U.S. ROUTE 127 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT SHALLOW DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEPER UPPER DIVERGENCE...INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN INMPRESSIVE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES WITH THE LINE OF
SHOWERS.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE FOR KLAN DOWN
TOWARDS KJXN WITH CAPE OF ~1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
35-40 KTS...BUT THE DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE/LF EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED JETLET ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT...IT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES/UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE PRETTY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEXT SYSTEM ALSO PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH MUGGY AIRMASS RETURNING LATE ON THU. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/T-STORMS EARLY THU ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND
LOW LEVEL JET. NEXT CHANCE WOULD THEN FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT.

OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING SSIMILAR TO THE PRESENT
ONE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE OF 1000J/KG+ AND MARGINALLY HIGH BULK SHEAR BUT
THE DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS NORTH OF US ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH VSBYS
FALLING TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WON/T PASS
THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE KEPT MVFR CIGS IN
THE TAFS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING.  WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ONSHORE AT
THIS TIME AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. BOUYS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 TO 6 FOOTERS. ALL
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 3 FT BY LATE EVENING. WE`LL LIKELY SEE A
REPEAT OF WIND/WAVES WITH NEXT SYSTEM THU INTO FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 011908
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND ALLOWS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.

CMX...CONTINUED -SHRA EARLY SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER
AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

SAW...SOME SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W
DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07






000
FXUS63 KMQT 011908
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND ALLOWS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.

CMX...CONTINUED -SHRA EARLY SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER
AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

SAW...SOME SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W
DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KDTX 011844
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
244 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

18Z SPECIAL CONFIRMS THE WARMER COLUMN DEPICTED BY THE RAP AND THEN
SOME. 900MB INVERSION IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN DEPICTED BY
THE GUIDANCE AS IS THE 600MB CAP. THUS, EVEN THE MOST TAME
DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION IN THE NWP ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
CONCERNS REGARDING CAPPING NOTED IN THE MORNING UPDATE ARE
CONFIRMED. UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23
WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH THE LINE
ALREADY MARCHING TOWARD THIS AREA, EXPECT THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 1.5KM WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS CARRYING A LOW-END SEVERE WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION,
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE REMAINS IN
TACT. FOR REMAINING AREAS, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A GUST TO 40
MPH. IN ADDITION, BACKED OFF ON POPS AS EARLIER SUSPICIONS REGARDING
COVERAGE POTENTIAL STILL LOOM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PROMOTE EXPANSION OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW AND FORCING TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANY LEGITIMATE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A SHEARING SHORTWAVE NOT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING PER 12Z GUIDANCE, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AT
THAT, NOTHING MORE THAN A CHC POP IS WARRANTED ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO START OUT TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS A SLUG OF 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL FALL GIVEN THE PUSH
OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HAS THE DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN A BIT SOONER THAN THE 00Z RUNS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
THE FORECAST A BIT DRIER TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THERE ISN`T A LARGE
PUSH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MEANING DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO GET AROUND 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMMENCES ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
REGION-WIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
/POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WILL BE FRIDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS (85/70
T/TD) IS IN PLACE ALONG WITH FORECASTED CAPE OF 3000 J/KG. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KT IN THE 1-6 KM LAYER AS WELL. THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A RAGGED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
STATE. THIS BRINGS A TRIPLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE

&&

.MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 114 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

//DISCUSSION...

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MIX UP TO LOW VFR DIURNALLY FORCED CU.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD TSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF KPTK SO TSHRA WAS REMOVED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS THE PROBABILITY IS NOW TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE TAFS. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM KFNT NORTH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS MORE CERTAIN TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN EXPECT PRECIP POTENTIAL TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW WITH THE BULK OF 12Z GUIDANCE HOLDING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TSTORMS HAS DECREASED...IT AT LEAST
REMAINS PLAUSIBLE. THE BEST TIME FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE
AIRPORT WILL BE 21Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE TOWARD MORNING IS ALSO QUITE LOW. ELECTED TO ELIMINATE
SPECIFIC MENTION FROM THE TAF UNTIL POTENTIALLY IMPACTED AREA BECOMES
MORE CLEAR.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 011844
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
244 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

18Z SPECIAL CONFIRMS THE WARMER COLUMN DEPICTED BY THE RAP AND THEN
SOME. 900MB INVERSION IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN DEPICTED BY
THE GUIDANCE AS IS THE 600MB CAP. THUS, EVEN THE MOST TAME
DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION IN THE NWP ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
CONCERNS REGARDING CAPPING NOTED IN THE MORNING UPDATE ARE
CONFIRMED. UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23
WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH THE LINE
ALREADY MARCHING TOWARD THIS AREA, EXPECT THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 1.5KM WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS CARRYING A LOW-END SEVERE WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION,
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE REMAINS IN
TACT. FOR REMAINING AREAS, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A GUST TO 40
MPH. IN ADDITION, BACKED OFF ON POPS AS EARLIER SUSPICIONS REGARDING
COVERAGE POTENTIAL STILL LOOM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PROMOTE EXPANSION OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW AND FORCING TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANY LEGITIMATE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A SHEARING SHORTWAVE NOT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING PER 12Z GUIDANCE, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AT
THAT, NOTHING MORE THAN A CHC POP IS WARRANTED ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO START OUT TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS A SLUG OF 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL FALL GIVEN THE PUSH
OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HAS THE DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN A BIT SOONER THAN THE 00Z RUNS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
THE FORECAST A BIT DRIER TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THERE ISN`T A LARGE
PUSH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MEANING DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO GET AROUND 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMMENCES ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
REGION-WIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
/POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WILL BE FRIDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS (85/70
T/TD) IS IN PLACE ALONG WITH FORECASTED CAPE OF 3000 J/KG. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KT IN THE 1-6 KM LAYER AS WELL. THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A RAGGED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
STATE. THIS BRINGS A TRIPLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE

&&

.MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 114 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

//DISCUSSION...

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MIX UP TO LOW VFR DIURNALLY FORCED CU.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD TSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF KPTK SO TSHRA WAS REMOVED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS THE PROBABILITY IS NOW TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE TAFS. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM KFNT NORTH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS MORE CERTAIN TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN EXPECT PRECIP POTENTIAL TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW WITH THE BULK OF 12Z GUIDANCE HOLDING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TSTORMS HAS DECREASED...IT AT LEAST
REMAINS PLAUSIBLE. THE BEST TIME FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE
AIRPORT WILL BE 21Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE TOWARD MORNING IS ALSO QUITE LOW. ELECTED TO ELIMINATE
SPECIFIC MENTION FROM THE TAF UNTIL POTENTIALLY IMPACTED AREA BECOMES
MORE CLEAR.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KAPX 011817
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAINLY IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SOME LATEST THOUGHTS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BATCH OF PRECIP NOW MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER
MICHIGAN. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AHEAD
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...LIKELY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A POCKET
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 MUCAPE ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT PALTRY MLCAPE...SUGGESTING THIS INITIAL
CONVECTION IS LARGELY ELEVATED. BUT...WITH AN AXIS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES RUNNING 40 TO 50 KNOTS NOW EDGING INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP...COULD STILL GET SOME ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS/HAIL PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS INLAND WARMING
CONTINUES ALONG WITH INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES...STRONGER WIND
GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PROGRESSIVE OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A VORTICITY CENTER ADVANCING ACROSS THE IOWA/
MINNESOTA AREA...PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN. STRONG JET CORE PUNCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF UPPER JET COUPLING
OVER WISCONSIN. A COUPLE DISTINCT BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING...ONE ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN...AND SECOND BATCH THROUGH MISSOURI.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH ONTARIO. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN (EVIDENT AROUND 750 MB ON THE
12Z APX SOUNDING) AND COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN. 12Z APX SOUNDING ALSO REVEALS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
BETWEEN 850 MB AND 650 MB WITH BUBBLY ACCAS MOVING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN (OFTEN A PRECURSOR TO SEVERE WEATHER). BUT MEANWHILE...WITH
INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HINDER HEATING FOR AWHILE.

REST OF TODAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. 50 KNOTS OR SO OF MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN 40 TO 50 KNOTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
MEANWHILE...UPPER JET CORE PUNCHES IN ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. SO...GOOD KINEMATICS IN PLACE WITH DECENT
SYNOPTIC FORCING ROLLING THROUGH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ALREADY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH EARLY HEATING AND BUMP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS HAS EXPANDED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WHICH OBVIOUSLY WILL IMPEDE
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. ON TOP OF THAT...INITIAL BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THICK HIGHER CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES. BUT
FIRST THOUGHTS ARE WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FACED WITH A HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION PROBLEM ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY
REDUCE OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN FACT...NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY
END UP LARGELY SPLIT ONCE AGAIN AS ONE ROUND OF PRECIP RUNS UP
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CANADA WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION TAKES
OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER ROBUST AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS
IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST LAKES...ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A BROADER
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT AS OF
06Z IS SNAKING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG THIS FEATURE...THOUGH MOST AREAS ALONG THE FRONT ARE RECEIVING
RAIN IN SOME FORM. HELPING THE CAUSE IS A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET POKING FROM CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WISCONSIN AND
HELPING MAINTAIN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF WHAT WAS ALREADY A LONG-LIVED
MCS FEATURE EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE BETTER LLJ CONVERGENCE
IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT IS HELPING
TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF MUCH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP IN OUR
DIRECTION AND QUELLING THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MCS
IS RUNNING SQUARELY INTO A TREMENDOUSLY DRIER AIRMASS...WITH A
NOTABLE POCKET OF VERY DRY 850-750MB DEW POINTS RESIDING OVER MUCH
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN (NOT TO MENTION
NORTHERN MICHIGAN).

OF COURSE WITH TODAY BEING THE BIG HOLIDAY AND UNOFFICIAL SENDOFF TO
SUMMER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS OUR
DRY FORECAST BEFORE 16Z/NOON SHOULD HOLD JUST FINE. ABOVE-MENTIONED
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS LIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LAKES. AS THAT OCCURS...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY GET GOING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN...PROBABLY SENDING SOME THICKER CIRRUS IN OUR DIRECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SURFACE HEATING AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MARCHING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY 18Z. GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO A CORE OF
H8 TEMPS NEARING 17C ALOFT...HIGHS COULD THEORETICALLY PUSH AS HIGH
AS THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER ON
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

ALL THE WHILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP ALOFT...WHILE
SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEP BACK THROUGH THE 60 TO PERHAPS NEAR
70...FUELING INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES UP TOWARD 1500+ J/KG. ADD THE
ARRIVAL OF A 55 KNOT MID LEVEL JET CORE FROM 18-00Z AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND PRE-FRONTAL THERMALLY-DRIVEN TROUGHING...AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY PROPAGATING AND/OR
REDEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT NOON ONWARD. DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THOUGH WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. INITIAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS FROM PRECIP LOADING...WHILE SHEAR AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL (WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
11-12KFT) LEND CREDENCE TO A LARGER HAIL POTENTIAL. GOING SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN ALL PRODUCTS AS THE SETUP CERTAINLY
LOOKS AS GOOD OF ONE WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER SEASON.

MAY SEE A TRAILING AXIS OF RAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...COURTESY OF ENHANCED
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WORKING SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A VERY
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE ONGOING UPPER MISS VALLEY MCS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THAT JET AXIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST AND OVERTAKES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER AS DRIER AIR AND WANING FORCING
ARRIVE BY SUNRISE. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY SEE SOME THICKER
STRATUS FIRE OFF IN A STILL QUITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BELOW 900MB (OFTEN THE CALLING CARD FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUMMER STRATUS - SEE YESTERDAY) YIELDS HOPE THINGS MAY
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...EYES ON THURSDAY NIGHT POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS...

IMPACTS: STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT DETAILS
TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF WIND IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TO RIDGE TO TROUGH EVOLUTION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATE PERIODS
ENDING IN A TREND TOWARD LONGER PERIOD RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH SUMMER TRYING NOT TO LOOK FOR THE EXIT DOOR TOWARD
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POSSIBLE ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF US WITH SOME LIKELY HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STILL GRAZING AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOME OF THE DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUD ARRIVING QUICKLY TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKISH LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL JETLET. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...BUT PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM AND A BIT OF ADDED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS
IN A HANDFUL OF MUCAPE (~400 J/KG) ARRIVING MORE SO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING. SFC TD`S LIKELY IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH BASED...ARE POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED A
SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH N THE MID-UPPER 70S. GONNA KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP FREE UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
DATA....ESPECIALLY TIMING. HEIGHTS RISE AT LEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DEPART RATHER QUICKLY WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT. SFC
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AROUND DAYBREAK AND EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF
COURSE IN QUESTION. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND EVENTUAL CHANCE
AT SOME STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GUSTY AND WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD MAKE A
RUN AT US AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE FOR THE FOLLOWING: LOTS OF WIND ALOFT...AND IF WE CAN
GENERATE THE INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...AND HEIGHT
FALLS THURSDAY EVENING...MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY GOOD STORM
POTENTIAL. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO...INSTABILITY STORM STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS ROLLING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S....COOLING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RIDGING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS PERIOD THOUGH DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE...OUTSIDE OF WHAT
SEEMS TO BE AN INSIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL SHALLOW SFC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY (MAY BE NORTH OF US IN CANADA). THE IDEA HERE IS TO BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL IMPACT PLN/APN TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 20Z
OR SO. LINE OF STORMS ALREADY EAST OF TVC/MBL. BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER THAT...A PERIOD OF VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS APPROACH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY...DELIVERING A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ALL THE WATERS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...STRONGEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON LAKE HURON
AND WHITEFISH BAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL CHANNEL UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 KNOTS INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE






000
FXUS63 KAPX 011817
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAINLY IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SOME LATEST THOUGHTS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BATCH OF PRECIP NOW MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER
MICHIGAN. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AHEAD
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...LIKELY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A POCKET
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 MUCAPE ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT PALTRY MLCAPE...SUGGESTING THIS INITIAL
CONVECTION IS LARGELY ELEVATED. BUT...WITH AN AXIS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES RUNNING 40 TO 50 KNOTS NOW EDGING INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP...COULD STILL GET SOME ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS/HAIL PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS INLAND WARMING
CONTINUES ALONG WITH INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES...STRONGER WIND
GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PROGRESSIVE OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A VORTICITY CENTER ADVANCING ACROSS THE IOWA/
MINNESOTA AREA...PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN. STRONG JET CORE PUNCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF UPPER JET COUPLING
OVER WISCONSIN. A COUPLE DISTINCT BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING...ONE ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN...AND SECOND BATCH THROUGH MISSOURI.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH ONTARIO. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN (EVIDENT AROUND 750 MB ON THE
12Z APX SOUNDING) AND COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN. 12Z APX SOUNDING ALSO REVEALS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
BETWEEN 850 MB AND 650 MB WITH BUBBLY ACCAS MOVING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN (OFTEN A PRECURSOR TO SEVERE WEATHER). BUT MEANWHILE...WITH
INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HINDER HEATING FOR AWHILE.

REST OF TODAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. 50 KNOTS OR SO OF MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN 40 TO 50 KNOTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
MEANWHILE...UPPER JET CORE PUNCHES IN ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. SO...GOOD KINEMATICS IN PLACE WITH DECENT
SYNOPTIC FORCING ROLLING THROUGH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ALREADY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH EARLY HEATING AND BUMP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS HAS EXPANDED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WHICH OBVIOUSLY WILL IMPEDE
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. ON TOP OF THAT...INITIAL BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THICK HIGHER CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES. BUT
FIRST THOUGHTS ARE WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FACED WITH A HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION PROBLEM ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY
REDUCE OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN FACT...NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY
END UP LARGELY SPLIT ONCE AGAIN AS ONE ROUND OF PRECIP RUNS UP
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CANADA WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION TAKES
OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER ROBUST AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS
IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST LAKES...ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A BROADER
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT AS OF
06Z IS SNAKING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG THIS FEATURE...THOUGH MOST AREAS ALONG THE FRONT ARE RECEIVING
RAIN IN SOME FORM. HELPING THE CAUSE IS A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET POKING FROM CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WISCONSIN AND
HELPING MAINTAIN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF WHAT WAS ALREADY A LONG-LIVED
MCS FEATURE EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE BETTER LLJ CONVERGENCE
IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT IS HELPING
TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF MUCH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP IN OUR
DIRECTION AND QUELLING THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MCS
IS RUNNING SQUARELY INTO A TREMENDOUSLY DRIER AIRMASS...WITH A
NOTABLE POCKET OF VERY DRY 850-750MB DEW POINTS RESIDING OVER MUCH
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN (NOT TO MENTION
NORTHERN MICHIGAN).

OF COURSE WITH TODAY BEING THE BIG HOLIDAY AND UNOFFICIAL SENDOFF TO
SUMMER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS OUR
DRY FORECAST BEFORE 16Z/NOON SHOULD HOLD JUST FINE. ABOVE-MENTIONED
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS LIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LAKES. AS THAT OCCURS...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY GET GOING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN...PROBABLY SENDING SOME THICKER CIRRUS IN OUR DIRECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SURFACE HEATING AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MARCHING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY 18Z. GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO A CORE OF
H8 TEMPS NEARING 17C ALOFT...HIGHS COULD THEORETICALLY PUSH AS HIGH
AS THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER ON
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

ALL THE WHILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP ALOFT...WHILE
SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEP BACK THROUGH THE 60 TO PERHAPS NEAR
70...FUELING INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES UP TOWARD 1500+ J/KG. ADD THE
ARRIVAL OF A 55 KNOT MID LEVEL JET CORE FROM 18-00Z AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND PRE-FRONTAL THERMALLY-DRIVEN TROUGHING...AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY PROPAGATING AND/OR
REDEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT NOON ONWARD. DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THOUGH WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. INITIAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS FROM PRECIP LOADING...WHILE SHEAR AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL (WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
11-12KFT) LEND CREDENCE TO A LARGER HAIL POTENTIAL. GOING SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN ALL PRODUCTS AS THE SETUP CERTAINLY
LOOKS AS GOOD OF ONE WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER SEASON.

MAY SEE A TRAILING AXIS OF RAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...COURTESY OF ENHANCED
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WORKING SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A VERY
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE ONGOING UPPER MISS VALLEY MCS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THAT JET AXIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST AND OVERTAKES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER AS DRIER AIR AND WANING FORCING
ARRIVE BY SUNRISE. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY SEE SOME THICKER
STRATUS FIRE OFF IN A STILL QUITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BELOW 900MB (OFTEN THE CALLING CARD FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUMMER STRATUS - SEE YESTERDAY) YIELDS HOPE THINGS MAY
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...EYES ON THURSDAY NIGHT POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS...

IMPACTS: STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT DETAILS
TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF WIND IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TO RIDGE TO TROUGH EVOLUTION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATE PERIODS
ENDING IN A TREND TOWARD LONGER PERIOD RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH SUMMER TRYING NOT TO LOOK FOR THE EXIT DOOR TOWARD
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POSSIBLE ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF US WITH SOME LIKELY HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STILL GRAZING AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOME OF THE DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUD ARRIVING QUICKLY TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKISH LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL JETLET. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...BUT PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM AND A BIT OF ADDED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS
IN A HANDFUL OF MUCAPE (~400 J/KG) ARRIVING MORE SO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING. SFC TD`S LIKELY IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH BASED...ARE POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED A
SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH N THE MID-UPPER 70S. GONNA KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP FREE UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
DATA....ESPECIALLY TIMING. HEIGHTS RISE AT LEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DEPART RATHER QUICKLY WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT. SFC
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AROUND DAYBREAK AND EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF
COURSE IN QUESTION. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND EVENTUAL CHANCE
AT SOME STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GUSTY AND WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD MAKE A
RUN AT US AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE FOR THE FOLLOWING: LOTS OF WIND ALOFT...AND IF WE CAN
GENERATE THE INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...AND HEIGHT
FALLS THURSDAY EVENING...MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY GOOD STORM
POTENTIAL. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO...INSTABILITY STORM STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS ROLLING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S....COOLING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RIDGING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS PERIOD THOUGH DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE...OUTSIDE OF WHAT
SEEMS TO BE AN INSIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL SHALLOW SFC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY (MAY BE NORTH OF US IN CANADA). THE IDEA HERE IS TO BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL IMPACT PLN/APN TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 20Z
OR SO. LINE OF STORMS ALREADY EAST OF TVC/MBL. BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER THAT...A PERIOD OF VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS APPROACH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY...DELIVERING A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ALL THE WATERS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...STRONGEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON LAKE HURON
AND WHITEFISH BAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL CHANNEL UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 KNOTS INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 011727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
127 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON (2PM - 8PM)
EAST OF U.S. 131 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. BRIEF
LOCALIZED FLOODING TYPICAL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S FROM THOSE IN THE MID 60S...IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.  THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS TEMPERATURES AND
DESTABILIZATION OFTHE AIRMASS.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROVIDING LOW LEVEL LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS. ALOFT HOWEVER...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
NOSE OF UPPER JET WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH BEST DEEP
LIFT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA.

INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40
KTS...AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. HOWEVER...LACK OF DEEP
LIFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS AND OVERALL SEVERE THEAT
SIGNICANTLY. THIS SOLUTION IS REFLECTED IN MANY OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING LAST FEW NSSL WRF
AND HRRR RUNS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH VSBYS
FALLING TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WON/T PASS
THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE KEPT MVFR CIGS IN
THE TAFS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCA/BEACH HAZARD WORKING WELL WITHWIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AND WAVE
AROUND 4 FT OBSERVED NORTH OF HOLLAND TOWARDS LUDINGTON AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WAVES UP TO 5
FEET. WINDS / WAVES WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KGRR 011727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
127 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON (2PM - 8PM)
EAST OF U.S. 131 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. BRIEF
LOCALIZED FLOODING TYPICAL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S FROM THOSE IN THE MID 60S...IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.  THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS TEMPERATURES AND
DESTABILIZATION OFTHE AIRMASS.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROVIDING LOW LEVEL LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS. ALOFT HOWEVER...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
NOSE OF UPPER JET WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH BEST DEEP
LIFT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA.

INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40
KTS...AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. HOWEVER...LACK OF DEEP
LIFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS AND OVERALL SEVERE THEAT
SIGNICANTLY. THIS SOLUTION IS REFLECTED IN MANY OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING LAST FEW NSSL WRF
AND HRRR RUNS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH VSBYS
FALLING TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WON/T PASS
THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE KEPT MVFR CIGS IN
THE TAFS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCA/BEACH HAZARD WORKING WELL WITHWIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AND WAVE
AROUND 4 FT OBSERVED NORTH OF HOLLAND TOWARDS LUDINGTON AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WAVES UP TO 5
FEET. WINDS / WAVES WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 011723
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR INL THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. A WEAK SHRTWV
FROM NE MN INTO NW WI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
OVER ERN MN INTO NW WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONGER SHRTWV WAS
LOCATED OVER SW MN INTO NW IA. WITH ONLY MODEST 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...ONLY A FEW TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION. THE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONGER 850 THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

TODAY...AS THE NW IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA WITH MODERATE
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH
0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SINCE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...MAINLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
QVECTOR DIV SPREADS INTO UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE EVENING WILL
END EARLY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ALSO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED LATE OVER THE SW CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND ALLOWS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.

CMX...CONTINUED -SHRA EARLY SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER
AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

SAW...SOME SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W
DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 011723
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR INL THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. A WEAK SHRTWV
FROM NE MN INTO NW WI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
OVER ERN MN INTO NW WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONGER SHRTWV WAS
LOCATED OVER SW MN INTO NW IA. WITH ONLY MODEST 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...ONLY A FEW TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION. THE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONGER 850 THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

TODAY...AS THE NW IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA WITH MODERATE
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH
0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SINCE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...MAINLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
QVECTOR DIV SPREADS INTO UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE EVENING WILL
END EARLY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ALSO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED LATE OVER THE SW CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND ALLOWS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.

CMX...CONTINUED -SHRA EARLY SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER
AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

SAW...SOME SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W
DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KDTX 011714
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
114 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MIX UP TO LOW VFR DIURNALLY FORCED CU.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD TSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF KPTK SO TSHRA WAS REMOVED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS THE PROBABILITY IS NOW TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE TAFS. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM KFNT NORTH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS MORE CERTAIN TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN EXPECT PRECIP POTENTIAL TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW WITH THE BULK OF 12Z GUIDANCE HOLDING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TSTORMS HAS DECREASED...IT AT LEAST
REMAINS PLAUSIBLE. THE BEST TIME FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE
AIRPORT WILL BE 21Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE TOWARD MORNING IS ALSO QUITE LOW. ELECTED TO ELIMINATE
SPECIFIC MENTION FROM THE TAF UNTIL POTENTIALLY IMPACTED AREA BECOMES
MORE CLEAR.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1227 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE...

MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SHROUDED IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS ON VISIBLE
INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK HAS BEGUN TO EVOLVE TOWARD A
DIURNALLY FORCED CU FIELD. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM WESTERN LOWER MI NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
THUMB WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOCKED IN AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THE STOUT 600MB CAP INDICATED ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS THE
ONLY IMPEDANCE, ALBEIT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ONE, TO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. CAP NOTWITHSTANDING, THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS STILL FAVORED
GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALREADY PUSHING UPPER 70S AT NOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FEATURING
VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5KM AGL AND AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE OF
SUPERCELLS. ANY SUPERCELLS WILL CARRY TORNADIC POTENTIAL GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR STRETCHING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS, VEERED SFC-1KM WIND PROFILES, AND REASONABLY LOW LCLS OF
700-900M. UNIDIRECTIONAL MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND PLENTY DRY AIR
WOULD THEN SUPPORT A QUICK EVOLUTION TOWARD DOWNDRAFT MODULATED
CONVECTION AND A CORRESPONDING EVOLUTION TOWARD DYNAMIC BOWS EARLY
IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, THE LACK
OF MESOCYCLONE FORCING WITHIN BOWS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT
TO WIND ONLY.

IN SPITE OF THE RIPE ENVIRONMENT, CAPPING LOOMS LARGE. THE 12Z NAM12
ALLOWS ENCROACHING HEIGHT FALLS TO USHER IN SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
COOLING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG, DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE RAP IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER COOLING THE COLUMN AND LIMITS ANY
SEVERE THREAT TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AREA WHERE MID-LEVEL
COOLING/FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SOLUTION SPACE REMAINS WIDE
OPEN AND CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WX IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. AT THIS
POINT, EVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION,
PARTICULARLY IF THE LATEST NON NAM GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED. IN
PURSUIT OF CLARITY, AN 18Z SOUNDING IS FORTHCOMING.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SUBJECT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND SE
MICHIGAN. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY SURFACE BASED STORMS LIKELY INITIATING IN THE LEE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE/MCV REMNANTS INTERACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DURING PEAK HEATING. A SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS IS THEN LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH OUR AREA MID EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGLY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE
DISSIPATING TREND ADVERTISED IN MODEL DATA AND THE SCENARIO OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. THIS DISSIPATING
TREND IS HAPPENING SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ERODE
AND/OR GET CARRIED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THAT LEAVES JUST PATCHY MID CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS...AS A MINIMAL OBSTRUCTION TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
TO START THE DAY. IT THEN SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME MAX TEMPS OF
80-85 WILL BE REACHABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AROUND 70 CARRYING
0-1KM LAYER CAPE TOWARD 1500 J/KG. A SURFACE PARCEL AT 85/72
GENERATES SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AS A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THESE VALUES ARE PLENTY HIGH ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...WITH MOST OF THAT IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTER
EARLY ON WITH SPLITS AND MERGERS GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS CONVECTION MATURES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY LIMITED TO ONLY THE STRONGEST MESO ENHANCED UPDRAFTS DUE TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE EXCEEDING 300 J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM ALONG
WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND LCL BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000
FT. THESE ARE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR TORNADOGENESIS.

ROUND TWO OF STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY THE COLD FRONT WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA TOWARD LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BOTH DUE TO THE DOWNSIDE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRECEDING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENDS UP THE FOCUS
OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
POST FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH THE MODELS
SUGGEST WILL BE MINIMAL...INSTEAD FOCUSING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/MOISTURE
AXIS WILL HAVE CLEARED SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
A DRAMATIC DRYING TREND TAKING PLACE AS PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER ARE JUST ABOUT CUT IN HALF TO AROUND 1 INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKING OUT
OF EASTERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE
BACKED...SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH...AND CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...AS DAYTIME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SETS IN AS WELL...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG TO WORK WITH PER
00Z NAM. ALTHOUGH...THE 00Z GFS IS DRIER AND DECIDEDLY MORE
ANTICYCLONIC AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE WETTEST.

SHORT LIVED ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS THE 80S APPEAR IN
THE OFFING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD 20 C ON THURSDAY...AND
REACH OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 C ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAKES A RUN
TOWARD A 90 DEGREE DAY A REAL POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
WILL PROBABLY ALREADY BE ARRIVING...SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HINDER
MAXES. MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 011714
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
114 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MIX UP TO LOW VFR DIURNALLY FORCED CU.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD TSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF KPTK SO TSHRA WAS REMOVED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS THE PROBABILITY IS NOW TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE TAFS. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM KFNT NORTH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS MORE CERTAIN TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN EXPECT PRECIP POTENTIAL TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW WITH THE BULK OF 12Z GUIDANCE HOLDING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TSTORMS HAS DECREASED...IT AT LEAST
REMAINS PLAUSIBLE. THE BEST TIME FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE
AIRPORT WILL BE 21Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE TOWARD MORNING IS ALSO QUITE LOW. ELECTED TO ELIMINATE
SPECIFIC MENTION FROM THE TAF UNTIL POTENTIALLY IMPACTED AREA BECOMES
MORE CLEAR.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1227 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE...

MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SHROUDED IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS ON VISIBLE
INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK HAS BEGUN TO EVOLVE TOWARD A
DIURNALLY FORCED CU FIELD. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM WESTERN LOWER MI NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
THUMB WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOCKED IN AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THE STOUT 600MB CAP INDICATED ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS THE
ONLY IMPEDANCE, ALBEIT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ONE, TO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. CAP NOTWITHSTANDING, THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS STILL FAVORED
GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALREADY PUSHING UPPER 70S AT NOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FEATURING
VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5KM AGL AND AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE OF
SUPERCELLS. ANY SUPERCELLS WILL CARRY TORNADIC POTENTIAL GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR STRETCHING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS, VEERED SFC-1KM WIND PROFILES, AND REASONABLY LOW LCLS OF
700-900M. UNIDIRECTIONAL MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND PLENTY DRY AIR
WOULD THEN SUPPORT A QUICK EVOLUTION TOWARD DOWNDRAFT MODULATED
CONVECTION AND A CORRESPONDING EVOLUTION TOWARD DYNAMIC BOWS EARLY
IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, THE LACK
OF MESOCYCLONE FORCING WITHIN BOWS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT
TO WIND ONLY.

IN SPITE OF THE RIPE ENVIRONMENT, CAPPING LOOMS LARGE. THE 12Z NAM12
ALLOWS ENCROACHING HEIGHT FALLS TO USHER IN SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
COOLING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG, DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE RAP IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER COOLING THE COLUMN AND LIMITS ANY
SEVERE THREAT TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AREA WHERE MID-LEVEL
COOLING/FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SOLUTION SPACE REMAINS WIDE
OPEN AND CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WX IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. AT THIS
POINT, EVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION,
PARTICULARLY IF THE LATEST NON NAM GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED. IN
PURSUIT OF CLARITY, AN 18Z SOUNDING IS FORTHCOMING.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SUBJECT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND SE
MICHIGAN. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY SURFACE BASED STORMS LIKELY INITIATING IN THE LEE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE/MCV REMNANTS INTERACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DURING PEAK HEATING. A SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS IS THEN LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH OUR AREA MID EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGLY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE
DISSIPATING TREND ADVERTISED IN MODEL DATA AND THE SCENARIO OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. THIS DISSIPATING
TREND IS HAPPENING SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ERODE
AND/OR GET CARRIED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THAT LEAVES JUST PATCHY MID CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS...AS A MINIMAL OBSTRUCTION TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
TO START THE DAY. IT THEN SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME MAX TEMPS OF
80-85 WILL BE REACHABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AROUND 70 CARRYING
0-1KM LAYER CAPE TOWARD 1500 J/KG. A SURFACE PARCEL AT 85/72
GENERATES SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AS A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THESE VALUES ARE PLENTY HIGH ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...WITH MOST OF THAT IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTER
EARLY ON WITH SPLITS AND MERGERS GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS CONVECTION MATURES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY LIMITED TO ONLY THE STRONGEST MESO ENHANCED UPDRAFTS DUE TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE EXCEEDING 300 J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM ALONG
WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND LCL BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000
FT. THESE ARE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR TORNADOGENESIS.

ROUND TWO OF STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY THE COLD FRONT WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA TOWARD LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BOTH DUE TO THE DOWNSIDE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRECEDING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENDS UP THE FOCUS
OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
POST FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH THE MODELS
SUGGEST WILL BE MINIMAL...INSTEAD FOCUSING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/MOISTURE
AXIS WILL HAVE CLEARED SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
A DRAMATIC DRYING TREND TAKING PLACE AS PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER ARE JUST ABOUT CUT IN HALF TO AROUND 1 INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKING OUT
OF EASTERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE
BACKED...SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH...AND CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...AS DAYTIME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SETS IN AS WELL...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG TO WORK WITH PER
00Z NAM. ALTHOUGH...THE 00Z GFS IS DRIER AND DECIDEDLY MORE
ANTICYCLONIC AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE WETTEST.

SHORT LIVED ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS THE 80S APPEAR IN
THE OFFING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD 20 C ON THURSDAY...AND
REACH OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 C ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAKES A RUN
TOWARD A 90 DEGREE DAY A REAL POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
WILL PROBABLY ALREADY BE ARRIVING...SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HINDER
MAXES. MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 011714
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
114 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MIX UP TO LOW VFR DIURNALLY FORCED CU.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD TSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF KPTK SO TSHRA WAS REMOVED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS THE PROBABILITY IS NOW TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE TAFS. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM KFNT NORTH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS MORE CERTAIN TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN EXPECT PRECIP POTENTIAL TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW WITH THE BULK OF 12Z GUIDANCE HOLDING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TSTORMS HAS DECREASED...IT AT LEAST
REMAINS PLAUSIBLE. THE BEST TIME FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE
AIRPORT WILL BE 21Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE TOWARD MORNING IS ALSO QUITE LOW. ELECTED TO ELIMINATE
SPECIFIC MENTION FROM THE TAF UNTIL POTENTIALLY IMPACTED AREA BECOMES
MORE CLEAR.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1227 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE...

MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SHROUDED IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS ON VISIBLE
INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK HAS BEGUN TO EVOLVE TOWARD A
DIURNALLY FORCED CU FIELD. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM WESTERN LOWER MI NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
THUMB WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOCKED IN AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THE STOUT 600MB CAP INDICATED ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS THE
ONLY IMPEDANCE, ALBEIT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ONE, TO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. CAP NOTWITHSTANDING, THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS STILL FAVORED
GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALREADY PUSHING UPPER 70S AT NOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FEATURING
VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5KM AGL AND AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE OF
SUPERCELLS. ANY SUPERCELLS WILL CARRY TORNADIC POTENTIAL GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR STRETCHING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS, VEERED SFC-1KM WIND PROFILES, AND REASONABLY LOW LCLS OF
700-900M. UNIDIRECTIONAL MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND PLENTY DRY AIR
WOULD THEN SUPPORT A QUICK EVOLUTION TOWARD DOWNDRAFT MODULATED
CONVECTION AND A CORRESPONDING EVOLUTION TOWARD DYNAMIC BOWS EARLY
IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, THE LACK
OF MESOCYCLONE FORCING WITHIN BOWS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT
TO WIND ONLY.

IN SPITE OF THE RIPE ENVIRONMENT, CAPPING LOOMS LARGE. THE 12Z NAM12
ALLOWS ENCROACHING HEIGHT FALLS TO USHER IN SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
COOLING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG, DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE RAP IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER COOLING THE COLUMN AND LIMITS ANY
SEVERE THREAT TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AREA WHERE MID-LEVEL
COOLING/FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SOLUTION SPACE REMAINS WIDE
OPEN AND CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WX IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. AT THIS
POINT, EVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION,
PARTICULARLY IF THE LATEST NON NAM GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED. IN
PURSUIT OF CLARITY, AN 18Z SOUNDING IS FORTHCOMING.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SUBJECT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND SE
MICHIGAN. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY SURFACE BASED STORMS LIKELY INITIATING IN THE LEE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE/MCV REMNANTS INTERACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DURING PEAK HEATING. A SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS IS THEN LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH OUR AREA MID EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGLY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE
DISSIPATING TREND ADVERTISED IN MODEL DATA AND THE SCENARIO OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. THIS DISSIPATING
TREND IS HAPPENING SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ERODE
AND/OR GET CARRIED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THAT LEAVES JUST PATCHY MID CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS...AS A MINIMAL OBSTRUCTION TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
TO START THE DAY. IT THEN SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME MAX TEMPS OF
80-85 WILL BE REACHABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AROUND 70 CARRYING
0-1KM LAYER CAPE TOWARD 1500 J/KG. A SURFACE PARCEL AT 85/72
GENERATES SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AS A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THESE VALUES ARE PLENTY HIGH ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...WITH MOST OF THAT IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTER
EARLY ON WITH SPLITS AND MERGERS GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS CONVECTION MATURES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY LIMITED TO ONLY THE STRONGEST MESO ENHANCED UPDRAFTS DUE TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE EXCEEDING 300 J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM ALONG
WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND LCL BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000
FT. THESE ARE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR TORNADOGENESIS.

ROUND TWO OF STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY THE COLD FRONT WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA TOWARD LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BOTH DUE TO THE DOWNSIDE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRECEDING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENDS UP THE FOCUS
OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
POST FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH THE MODELS
SUGGEST WILL BE MINIMAL...INSTEAD FOCUSING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/MOISTURE
AXIS WILL HAVE CLEARED SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
A DRAMATIC DRYING TREND TAKING PLACE AS PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER ARE JUST ABOUT CUT IN HALF TO AROUND 1 INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKING OUT
OF EASTERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE
BACKED...SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH...AND CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...AS DAYTIME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SETS IN AS WELL...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG TO WORK WITH PER
00Z NAM. ALTHOUGH...THE 00Z GFS IS DRIER AND DECIDEDLY MORE
ANTICYCLONIC AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE WETTEST.

SHORT LIVED ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS THE 80S APPEAR IN
THE OFFING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD 20 C ON THURSDAY...AND
REACH OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 C ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAKES A RUN
TOWARD A 90 DEGREE DAY A REAL POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
WILL PROBABLY ALREADY BE ARRIVING...SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HINDER
MAXES. MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 011714
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
114 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MIX UP TO LOW VFR DIURNALLY FORCED CU.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD TSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF KPTK SO TSHRA WAS REMOVED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS THE PROBABILITY IS NOW TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE TAFS. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM KFNT NORTH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS MORE CERTAIN TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN EXPECT PRECIP POTENTIAL TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW WITH THE BULK OF 12Z GUIDANCE HOLDING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TSTORMS HAS DECREASED...IT AT LEAST
REMAINS PLAUSIBLE. THE BEST TIME FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE
AIRPORT WILL BE 21Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE TOWARD MORNING IS ALSO QUITE LOW. ELECTED TO ELIMINATE
SPECIFIC MENTION FROM THE TAF UNTIL POTENTIALLY IMPACTED AREA BECOMES
MORE CLEAR.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1227 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE...

MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SHROUDED IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS ON VISIBLE
INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK HAS BEGUN TO EVOLVE TOWARD A
DIURNALLY FORCED CU FIELD. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM WESTERN LOWER MI NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
THUMB WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOCKED IN AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THE STOUT 600MB CAP INDICATED ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS THE
ONLY IMPEDANCE, ALBEIT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ONE, TO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. CAP NOTWITHSTANDING, THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS STILL FAVORED
GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALREADY PUSHING UPPER 70S AT NOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FEATURING
VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5KM AGL AND AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE OF
SUPERCELLS. ANY SUPERCELLS WILL CARRY TORNADIC POTENTIAL GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR STRETCHING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS, VEERED SFC-1KM WIND PROFILES, AND REASONABLY LOW LCLS OF
700-900M. UNIDIRECTIONAL MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND PLENTY DRY AIR
WOULD THEN SUPPORT A QUICK EVOLUTION TOWARD DOWNDRAFT MODULATED
CONVECTION AND A CORRESPONDING EVOLUTION TOWARD DYNAMIC BOWS EARLY
IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, THE LACK
OF MESOCYCLONE FORCING WITHIN BOWS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT
TO WIND ONLY.

IN SPITE OF THE RIPE ENVIRONMENT, CAPPING LOOMS LARGE. THE 12Z NAM12
ALLOWS ENCROACHING HEIGHT FALLS TO USHER IN SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
COOLING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG, DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE RAP IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER COOLING THE COLUMN AND LIMITS ANY
SEVERE THREAT TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AREA WHERE MID-LEVEL
COOLING/FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SOLUTION SPACE REMAINS WIDE
OPEN AND CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WX IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. AT THIS
POINT, EVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION,
PARTICULARLY IF THE LATEST NON NAM GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED. IN
PURSUIT OF CLARITY, AN 18Z SOUNDING IS FORTHCOMING.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SUBJECT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND SE
MICHIGAN. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY SURFACE BASED STORMS LIKELY INITIATING IN THE LEE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE/MCV REMNANTS INTERACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DURING PEAK HEATING. A SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS IS THEN LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH OUR AREA MID EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGLY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE
DISSIPATING TREND ADVERTISED IN MODEL DATA AND THE SCENARIO OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. THIS DISSIPATING
TREND IS HAPPENING SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ERODE
AND/OR GET CARRIED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THAT LEAVES JUST PATCHY MID CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS...AS A MINIMAL OBSTRUCTION TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
TO START THE DAY. IT THEN SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME MAX TEMPS OF
80-85 WILL BE REACHABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AROUND 70 CARRYING
0-1KM LAYER CAPE TOWARD 1500 J/KG. A SURFACE PARCEL AT 85/72
GENERATES SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AS A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THESE VALUES ARE PLENTY HIGH ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...WITH MOST OF THAT IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTER
EARLY ON WITH SPLITS AND MERGERS GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS CONVECTION MATURES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY LIMITED TO ONLY THE STRONGEST MESO ENHANCED UPDRAFTS DUE TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE EXCEEDING 300 J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM ALONG
WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND LCL BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000
FT. THESE ARE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR TORNADOGENESIS.

ROUND TWO OF STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY THE COLD FRONT WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA TOWARD LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BOTH DUE TO THE DOWNSIDE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRECEDING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENDS UP THE FOCUS
OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
POST FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH THE MODELS
SUGGEST WILL BE MINIMAL...INSTEAD FOCUSING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/MOISTURE
AXIS WILL HAVE CLEARED SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
A DRAMATIC DRYING TREND TAKING PLACE AS PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER ARE JUST ABOUT CUT IN HALF TO AROUND 1 INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKING OUT
OF EASTERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE
BACKED...SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH...AND CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...AS DAYTIME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SETS IN AS WELL...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG TO WORK WITH PER
00Z NAM. ALTHOUGH...THE 00Z GFS IS DRIER AND DECIDEDLY MORE
ANTICYCLONIC AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE WETTEST.

SHORT LIVED ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS THE 80S APPEAR IN
THE OFFING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD 20 C ON THURSDAY...AND
REACH OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 C ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAKES A RUN
TOWARD A 90 DEGREE DAY A REAL POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
WILL PROBABLY ALREADY BE ARRIVING...SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HINDER
MAXES. MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KGRR 011637
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON (2PM - 8PM)
EAST OF U.S. 131 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. BRIEF
LOCALIZED FLOODING TYPICAL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S FROM THOSE IN THE MID 60S...IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.  THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS TEMPERATURES AND
DESTABILIZATION OFTHE AIRMASS.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROVIDING LOW LEVEL LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS. ALOFT HOWEVER...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
NOSE OF UPPER JET WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH BEST DEEP
LIFT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA.

INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40
KTS...AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. HOWEVER...LACK OF DEEP
LIFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS AND OVERALL SEVERE THEAT
SIGNICANTLY. THIS SOLUTION IS REFLECTED IN MANY OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING LAST FEW NSSL WRF
AND HRRR RUNS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOMING.

THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING...BUT IT HAS BECOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THEY ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES FROM 14Z OR SO THROUGH 23Z. TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN PREVAILING TIMING AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE
TO TODAY/S STORMS...SO HAVE VCTS WORDING IN ALL THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END WITH MVFR
CEILINGS TRYING TO SETTLE BACK IN.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
FROM 15Z-23Z. WINDS FROM 200-220 AT 15-25 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCA/BEACH HAZARD WORKING WELL WITHWIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AND WAVE
AROUND 4 FT OBSERVED NORTH OF HOLLAND TOWARDS LUDINGTON AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WAVES UP TO 5
FEET. WINDS / WAVES WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB





000
FXUS63 KGRR 011637
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON (2PM - 8PM)
EAST OF U.S. 131 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. BRIEF
LOCALIZED FLOODING TYPICAL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S FROM THOSE IN THE MID 60S...IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.  THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS TEMPERATURES AND
DESTABILIZATION OFTHE AIRMASS.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROVIDING LOW LEVEL LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS. ALOFT HOWEVER...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
NOSE OF UPPER JET WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH BEST DEEP
LIFT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA.

INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40
KTS...AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. HOWEVER...LACK OF DEEP
LIFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS AND OVERALL SEVERE THEAT
SIGNICANTLY. THIS SOLUTION IS REFLECTED IN MANY OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING LAST FEW NSSL WRF
AND HRRR RUNS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOMING.

THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING...BUT IT HAS BECOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THEY ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES FROM 14Z OR SO THROUGH 23Z. TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN PREVAILING TIMING AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE
TO TODAY/S STORMS...SO HAVE VCTS WORDING IN ALL THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END WITH MVFR
CEILINGS TRYING TO SETTLE BACK IN.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
FROM 15Z-23Z. WINDS FROM 200-220 AT 15-25 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCA/BEACH HAZARD WORKING WELL WITHWIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AND WAVE
AROUND 4 FT OBSERVED NORTH OF HOLLAND TOWARDS LUDINGTON AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WAVES UP TO 5
FEET. WINDS / WAVES WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RIVERS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL... BUT ARE STILL FAR BELOW
BANK FULL. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH PEAK LEVELS BELOW BANK FULL BY MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...COBB






000
FXUS63 KDTX 011627
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1227 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SHROUDED IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS ON VISIBLE
INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK HAS BEGUN TO EVOLVE TOWARD A
DIURNALLY FORCED CU FIELD. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM WESTERN LOWER MI NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
THUMB WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOCKED IN AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THE STOUT 600MB CAP INDICATED ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS THE
ONLY IMPEDANCE, ALBEIT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ONE, TO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. CAP NOTWITHSTANDING, THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS STILL FAVORED
GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALREADY PUSHING UPPER 70S AT NOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FEATURING
VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5KM AGL AND AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE OF
SUPERCELLS. ANY SUPERCELLS WILL CARRY TORNADIC POTENTIAL GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR STRETCHING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS, VEERED SFC-1KM WIND PROFILES, AND REASONABLY LOW LCLS OF
700-900M. UNIDIRECTIONAL MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND PLENTY DRY AIR
WOULD THEN SUPPORT A QUICK EVOLUTION TOWARD DOWNDRAFT MODULATED
CONVECTION AND A CORRESPONDING EVOLUTION TOWARD DYNAMIC BOWS EARLY
IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, THE LACK
OF MESOCYCLONE FORCING WITHIN BOWS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT
TO WIND ONLY.

IN SPITE OF THE RIPE ENVIRONMENT, CAPPING LOOMS LARGE. THE 12Z NAM12
ALLOWS ENCROACHING HEIGHT FALLS TO USHER IN SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
COOLING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG, DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE RAP IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER COOLING THE COLUMN AND LIMITS ANY
SEVERE THREAT TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AREA WHERE MID-LEVEL
COOLING/FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SOLUTION SPACE REMAINS WIDE
OPEN AND CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WX IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. AT THIS
POINT, EVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION,
PARTICULARLY IF THE LATEST NON NAM GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED. IN
PURSUIT OF CLARITY, AN 18Z SOUNDING IS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 703 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

//DISCUSSION...

FOG AND STRATUS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER SE MICHIGAN WILL
PRESENT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS THE FIRST CONCERN FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AND SURFACE HEATING
WILL HELP LIFT THE FOG AND MIX THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BECOME THE MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
THE ENTIRE TERMINAL CORRIDOR...FIRST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
MID EVENING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY...AND THEN FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS SE MICHIGAN. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE ON TRACK TO EXIT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY LEAVING BEHIND ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOR DTW... A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THE MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
FOR DTW.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SUBJECT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND SE
MICHIGAN. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY SURFACE BASED STORMS LIKELY INITIATING IN THE LEE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE/MCV REMNANTS INTERACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DURING PEAK HEATING. A SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS IS THEN LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH OUR AREA MID EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGLY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE
DISSIPATING TREND ADVERTISED IN MODEL DATA AND THE SCENARIO OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. THIS DISSIPATING
TREND IS HAPPENING SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ERODE
AND/OR GET CARRIED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THAT LEAVES JUST PATCHY MID CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS...AS A MINIMAL OBSTRUCTION TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
TO START THE DAY. IT THEN SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME MAX TEMPS OF
80-85 WILL BE REACHABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AROUND 70 CARRYING
0-1KM LAYER CAPE TOWARD 1500 J/KG. A SURFACE PARCEL AT 85/72
GENERATES SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AS A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THESE VALUES ARE PLENTY HIGH ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...WITH MOST OF THAT IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTER
EARLY ON WITH SPLITS AND MERGERS GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS CONVECTION MATURES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY LIMITED TO ONLY THE STRONGEST MESO ENHANCED UPDRAFTS DUE TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE EXCEEDING 300 J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM ALONG
WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND LCL BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000
FT. THESE ARE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR TORNADOGENESIS.

ROUND TWO OF STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY THE COLD FRONT WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA TOWARD LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BOTH DUE TO THE DOWNSIDE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRECEDING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENDS UP THE FOCUS
OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
POST FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH THE MODELS
SUGGEST WILL BE MINIMAL...INSTEAD FOCUSING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/MOISTURE
AXIS WILL HAVE CLEARED SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
A DRAMATIC DRYING TREND TAKING PLACE AS PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER ARE JUST ABOUT CUT IN HALF TO AROUND 1 INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKING OUT
OF EASTERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE
BACKED...SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH...AND CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...AS DAYTIME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SETS IN AS WELL...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG TO WORK WITH PER
00Z NAM. ALTHOUGH...THE 00Z GFS IS DRIER AND DECIDEDLY MORE
ANTICYCLONIC AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE WETTEST.

SHORT LIVED ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS THE 80S APPEAR IN
THE OFFING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD 20 C ON THURSDAY...AND
REACH OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 C ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAKES A RUN
TOWARD A 90 DEGREE DAY A REAL POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
WILL PROBABLY ALREADY BE ARRIVING...SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HINDER
MAXES. MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 011627
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1227 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SHROUDED IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS ON VISIBLE
INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK HAS BEGUN TO EVOLVE TOWARD A
DIURNALLY FORCED CU FIELD. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM WESTERN LOWER MI NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
THUMB WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOCKED IN AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THE STOUT 600MB CAP INDICATED ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS THE
ONLY IMPEDANCE, ALBEIT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ONE, TO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. CAP NOTWITHSTANDING, THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS STILL FAVORED
GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALREADY PUSHING UPPER 70S AT NOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FEATURING
VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5KM AGL AND AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE OF
SUPERCELLS. ANY SUPERCELLS WILL CARRY TORNADIC POTENTIAL GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR STRETCHING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS, VEERED SFC-1KM WIND PROFILES, AND REASONABLY LOW LCLS OF
700-900M. UNIDIRECTIONAL MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND PLENTY DRY AIR
WOULD THEN SUPPORT A QUICK EVOLUTION TOWARD DOWNDRAFT MODULATED
CONVECTION AND A CORRESPONDING EVOLUTION TOWARD DYNAMIC BOWS EARLY
IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, THE LACK
OF MESOCYCLONE FORCING WITHIN BOWS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT
TO WIND ONLY.

IN SPITE OF THE RIPE ENVIRONMENT, CAPPING LOOMS LARGE. THE 12Z NAM12
ALLOWS ENCROACHING HEIGHT FALLS TO USHER IN SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
COOLING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG, DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE RAP IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER COOLING THE COLUMN AND LIMITS ANY
SEVERE THREAT TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AREA WHERE MID-LEVEL
COOLING/FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SOLUTION SPACE REMAINS WIDE
OPEN AND CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WX IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. AT THIS
POINT, EVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION,
PARTICULARLY IF THE LATEST NON NAM GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED. IN
PURSUIT OF CLARITY, AN 18Z SOUNDING IS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 703 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

//DISCUSSION...

FOG AND STRATUS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER SE MICHIGAN WILL
PRESENT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS THE FIRST CONCERN FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AND SURFACE HEATING
WILL HELP LIFT THE FOG AND MIX THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BECOME THE MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
THE ENTIRE TERMINAL CORRIDOR...FIRST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
MID EVENING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY...AND THEN FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS SE MICHIGAN. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE ON TRACK TO EXIT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY LEAVING BEHIND ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOR DTW... A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THE MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
FOR DTW.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SUBJECT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND SE
MICHIGAN. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY SURFACE BASED STORMS LIKELY INITIATING IN THE LEE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE/MCV REMNANTS INTERACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DURING PEAK HEATING. A SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS IS THEN LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH OUR AREA MID EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGLY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE
DISSIPATING TREND ADVERTISED IN MODEL DATA AND THE SCENARIO OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. THIS DISSIPATING
TREND IS HAPPENING SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ERODE
AND/OR GET CARRIED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THAT LEAVES JUST PATCHY MID CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS...AS A MINIMAL OBSTRUCTION TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
TO START THE DAY. IT THEN SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME MAX TEMPS OF
80-85 WILL BE REACHABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AROUND 70 CARRYING
0-1KM LAYER CAPE TOWARD 1500 J/KG. A SURFACE PARCEL AT 85/72
GENERATES SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AS A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THESE VALUES ARE PLENTY HIGH ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...WITH MOST OF THAT IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTER
EARLY ON WITH SPLITS AND MERGERS GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS CONVECTION MATURES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY LIMITED TO ONLY THE STRONGEST MESO ENHANCED UPDRAFTS DUE TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE EXCEEDING 300 J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM ALONG
WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND LCL BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000
FT. THESE ARE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR TORNADOGENESIS.

ROUND TWO OF STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY THE COLD FRONT WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA TOWARD LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BOTH DUE TO THE DOWNSIDE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRECEDING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENDS UP THE FOCUS
OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
POST FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH THE MODELS
SUGGEST WILL BE MINIMAL...INSTEAD FOCUSING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/MOISTURE
AXIS WILL HAVE CLEARED SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
A DRAMATIC DRYING TREND TAKING PLACE AS PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER ARE JUST ABOUT CUT IN HALF TO AROUND 1 INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKING OUT
OF EASTERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE
BACKED...SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH...AND CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...AS DAYTIME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SETS IN AS WELL...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG TO WORK WITH PER
00Z NAM. ALTHOUGH...THE 00Z GFS IS DRIER AND DECIDEDLY MORE
ANTICYCLONIC AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE WETTEST.

SHORT LIVED ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS THE 80S APPEAR IN
THE OFFING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD 20 C ON THURSDAY...AND
REACH OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 C ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAKES A RUN
TOWARD A 90 DEGREE DAY A REAL POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
WILL PROBABLY ALREADY BE ARRIVING...SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HINDER
MAXES. MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KAPX 011604
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1204 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAINLY IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SOME LATEST THOUGHTS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BATCH OF PRECIP NOW MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER
MICHIGAN. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AHEAD
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...LIKELY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A POCKET
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 MUCAPE ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT PALTRY MLCAPE...SUGGESTING THIS INITIAL
CONVECTION IS LARGELY ELEVATED. BUT...WITH AN AXIS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES RUNNING 40 TO 50 KNOTS NOW EDGING INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP...COULD STILL GET SOME ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS/HAIL PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS INLAND WARMING
CONTINUES ALONG WITH INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES...STRONGER WIND
GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PROGRESSIVE OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A VORTICITY CENTER ADVANCING ACROSS THE IOWA/
MINNESOTA AREA...PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN. STRONG JET CORE PUNCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF UPPER JET COUPLING
OVER WISCONSIN. A COUPLE DISTINCT BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING...ONE ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN...AND SECOND BATCH THROUGH MISSOURI.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH ONTARIO. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN (EVIDENT AROUND 750 MB ON THE
12Z APX SOUNDING) AND COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN. 12Z APX SOUNDING ALSO REVEALS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
BETWEEN 850 MB AND 650 MB WITH BUBBLY ACCAS MOVING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN (OFTEN A PRECURSOR TO SEVERE WEATHER). BUT MEANWHILE...WITH
INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HINDER HEATING FOR AWHILE.

REST OF TODAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. 50 KNOTS OR SO OF MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN 40 TO 50 KNOTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
MEANWHILE...UPPER JET CORE PUNCHES IN ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. SO...GOOD KINEMATICS IN PLACE WITH DECENT
SYNOPTIC FORCING ROLLING THROUGH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ALREADY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH EARLY HEATING AND BUMP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS HAS EXPANDED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WHICH OBVIOUSLY WILL IMPEDE
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. ON TOP OF THAT...INITIAL BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THICK HIGHER CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES. BUT
FIRST THOUGHTS ARE WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FACED WITH A HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION PROBLEM ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY
REDUCE OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN FACT...NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY
END UP LARGELY SPLIT ONCE AGAIN AS ONE ROUND OF PRECIP RUNS UP
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CANADA WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION TAKES
OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER ROBUST AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS
IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST LAKES...ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A BROADER
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT AS OF
06Z IS SNAKING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG THIS FEATURE...THOUGH MOST AREAS ALONG THE FRONT ARE RECEIVING
RAIN IN SOME FORM. HELPING THE CAUSE IS A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET POKING FROM CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WISCONSIN AND
HELPING MAINTAIN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF WHAT WAS ALREADY A LONG-LIVED
MCS FEATURE EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE BETTER LLJ CONVERGENCE
IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT IS HELPING
TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF MUCH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP IN OUR
DIRECTION AND QUELLING THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MCS
IS RUNNING SQUARELY INTO A TREMENDOUSLY DRIER AIRMASS...WITH A
NOTABLE POCKET OF VERY DRY 850-750MB DEW POINTS RESIDING OVER MUCH
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN (NOT TO MENTION
NORTHERN MICHIGAN).

OF COURSE WITH TODAY BEING THE BIG HOLIDAY AND UNOFFICIAL SENDOFF TO
SUMMER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS OUR
DRY FORECAST BEFORE 16Z/NOON SHOULD HOLD JUST FINE. ABOVE-MENTIONED
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS LIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LAKES. AS THAT OCCURS...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY GET GOING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN...PROBABLY SENDING SOME THICKER CIRRUS IN OUR DIRECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SURFACE HEATING AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MARCHING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY 18Z. GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO A CORE OF
H8 TEMPS NEARING 17C ALOFT...HIGHS COULD THEORETICALLY PUSH AS HIGH
AS THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER ON
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

ALL THE WHILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP ALOFT...WHILE
SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEP BACK THROUGH THE 60 TO PERHAPS NEAR
70...FUELING INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES UP TOWARD 1500+ J/KG. ADD THE
ARRIVAL OF A 55 KNOT MID LEVEL JET CORE FROM 18-00Z AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND PRE-FRONTAL THERMALLY-DRIVEN TROUGHING...AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY PROPAGATING AND/OR
REDEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT NOON ONWARD. DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THOUGH WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. INITIAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS FROM PRECIP LOADING...WHILE SHEAR AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL (WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
11-12KFT) LEND CREDENCE TO A LARGER HAIL POTENTIAL. GOING SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN ALL PRODUCTS AS THE SETUP CERTAINLY
LOOKS AS GOOD OF ONE WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER SEASON.

MAY SEE A TRAILING AXIS OF RAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...COURTESY OF ENHANCED
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WORKING SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A VERY
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE ONGOING UPPER MISS VALLEY MCS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THAT JET AXIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST AND OVERTAKES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER AS DRIER AIR AND WANING FORCING
ARRIVE BY SUNRISE. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY SEE SOME THICKER
STRATUS FIRE OFF IN A STILL QUITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BELOW 900MB (OFTEN THE CALLING CARD FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUMMER STRATUS - SEE YESTERDAY) YIELDS HOPE THINGS MAY
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...EYES ON THURSDAY NIGHT POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS...

IMPACTS: STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT DETAILS
TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF WIND IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TO RIDGE TO TROUGH EVOLUTION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATE PERIODS
ENDING IN A TREND TOWARD LONGER PERIOD RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH SUMMER TRYING NOT TO LOOK FOR THE EXIT DOOR TOWARD
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POSSIBLE ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF US WITH SOME LIKELY HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STILL GRAZING AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOME OF THE DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUD ARRIVING QUICKLY TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKISH LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL JETLET. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...BUT PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM AND A BIT OF ADDED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS
IN A HANDFUL OF MUCAPE (~400 J/KG) ARRIVING MORE SO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING. SFC TD`S LIKELY IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH BASED...ARE POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED A
SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH N THE MID-UPPER 70S. GONNA KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP FREE UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
DATA....ESPECIALLY TIMING. HEIGHTS RISE AT LEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DEPART RATHER QUICKLY WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT. SFC
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AROUND DAYBREAK AND EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF
COURSE IN QUESTION. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND EVENTUAL CHANCE
AT SOME STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GUSTY AND WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD MAKE A
RUN AT US AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE FOR THE FOLLOWING: LOTS OF WIND ALOFT...AND IF WE CAN
GENERATE THE INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...AND HEIGHT
FALLS THURSDAY EVENING...MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY GOOD STORM
POTENTIAL. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO...INSTABILITY STORM STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS ROLLING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S....COOLING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RIDGING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS PERIOD THOUGH DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE...OUTSIDE OF WHAT
SEEMS TO BE AN INSIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL SHALLOW SFC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY (MAY BE NORTH OF US IN CANADA). THE IDEA HERE IS TO BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

OUTSIDE OF SOME DENSE FOG AND STRATUS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT
APN...ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL START OFF THE
DAY WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT APN. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...AROUND NOON/EARLY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER NW LOWER AND
INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING APN MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IS THERE AN EXPECTED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR VSBYS IN RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
AIRPORT GETTING HIT WITH SOME SORT OF SHOWERS IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. GAVE A 3-4 HR WINDOW FOR
STORMS WITH VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD. THEN CONDITIONS VFR
WITH SCT- MID CLOUD AROUND...WITH A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST EXIT OF
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS...MAINLY NW LOWER. WINDS SHIFT MORE
WSW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UNDER 10KTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS APPROACH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY...DELIVERING A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ALL THE WATERS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...STRONGEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON LAKE HURON
AND WHITEFISH BAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL CHANNEL UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 KNOTS INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 011604
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1204 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAINLY IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SOME LATEST THOUGHTS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BATCH OF PRECIP NOW MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER
MICHIGAN. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AHEAD
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...LIKELY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A POCKET
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 MUCAPE ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT PALTRY MLCAPE...SUGGESTING THIS INITIAL
CONVECTION IS LARGELY ELEVATED. BUT...WITH AN AXIS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES RUNNING 40 TO 50 KNOTS NOW EDGING INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP...COULD STILL GET SOME ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS/HAIL PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS INLAND WARMING
CONTINUES ALONG WITH INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES...STRONGER WIND
GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PROGRESSIVE OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A VORTICITY CENTER ADVANCING ACROSS THE IOWA/
MINNESOTA AREA...PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN. STRONG JET CORE PUNCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF UPPER JET COUPLING
OVER WISCONSIN. A COUPLE DISTINCT BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING...ONE ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN...AND SECOND BATCH THROUGH MISSOURI.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH ONTARIO. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN (EVIDENT AROUND 750 MB ON THE
12Z APX SOUNDING) AND COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN. 12Z APX SOUNDING ALSO REVEALS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
BETWEEN 850 MB AND 650 MB WITH BUBBLY ACCAS MOVING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN (OFTEN A PRECURSOR TO SEVERE WEATHER). BUT MEANWHILE...WITH
INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HINDER HEATING FOR AWHILE.

REST OF TODAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. 50 KNOTS OR SO OF MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN 40 TO 50 KNOTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
MEANWHILE...UPPER JET CORE PUNCHES IN ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. SO...GOOD KINEMATICS IN PLACE WITH DECENT
SYNOPTIC FORCING ROLLING THROUGH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ALREADY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH EARLY HEATING AND BUMP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS HAS EXPANDED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WHICH OBVIOUSLY WILL IMPEDE
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. ON TOP OF THAT...INITIAL BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THICK HIGHER CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES. BUT
FIRST THOUGHTS ARE WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FACED WITH A HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION PROBLEM ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY
REDUCE OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN FACT...NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY
END UP LARGELY SPLIT ONCE AGAIN AS ONE ROUND OF PRECIP RUNS UP
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CANADA WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION TAKES
OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER ROBUST AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS
IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST LAKES...ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A BROADER
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT AS OF
06Z IS SNAKING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG THIS FEATURE...THOUGH MOST AREAS ALONG THE FRONT ARE RECEIVING
RAIN IN SOME FORM. HELPING THE CAUSE IS A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET POKING FROM CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WISCONSIN AND
HELPING MAINTAIN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF WHAT WAS ALREADY A LONG-LIVED
MCS FEATURE EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE BETTER LLJ CONVERGENCE
IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT IS HELPING
TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF MUCH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP IN OUR
DIRECTION AND QUELLING THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MCS
IS RUNNING SQUARELY INTO A TREMENDOUSLY DRIER AIRMASS...WITH A
NOTABLE POCKET OF VERY DRY 850-750MB DEW POINTS RESIDING OVER MUCH
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN (NOT TO MENTION
NORTHERN MICHIGAN).

OF COURSE WITH TODAY BEING THE BIG HOLIDAY AND UNOFFICIAL SENDOFF TO
SUMMER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS OUR
DRY FORECAST BEFORE 16Z/NOON SHOULD HOLD JUST FINE. ABOVE-MENTIONED
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS LIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LAKES. AS THAT OCCURS...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY GET GOING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN...PROBABLY SENDING SOME THICKER CIRRUS IN OUR DIRECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SURFACE HEATING AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MARCHING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY 18Z. GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO A CORE OF
H8 TEMPS NEARING 17C ALOFT...HIGHS COULD THEORETICALLY PUSH AS HIGH
AS THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER ON
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

ALL THE WHILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP ALOFT...WHILE
SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEP BACK THROUGH THE 60 TO PERHAPS NEAR
70...FUELING INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES UP TOWARD 1500+ J/KG. ADD THE
ARRIVAL OF A 55 KNOT MID LEVEL JET CORE FROM 18-00Z AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND PRE-FRONTAL THERMALLY-DRIVEN TROUGHING...AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY PROPAGATING AND/OR
REDEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT NOON ONWARD. DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THOUGH WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. INITIAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS FROM PRECIP LOADING...WHILE SHEAR AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL (WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
11-12KFT) LEND CREDENCE TO A LARGER HAIL POTENTIAL. GOING SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN ALL PRODUCTS AS THE SETUP CERTAINLY
LOOKS AS GOOD OF ONE WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER SEASON.

MAY SEE A TRAILING AXIS OF RAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...COURTESY OF ENHANCED
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WORKING SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A VERY
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE ONGOING UPPER MISS VALLEY MCS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THAT JET AXIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST AND OVERTAKES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER AS DRIER AIR AND WANING FORCING
ARRIVE BY SUNRISE. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY SEE SOME THICKER
STRATUS FIRE OFF IN A STILL QUITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BELOW 900MB (OFTEN THE CALLING CARD FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUMMER STRATUS - SEE YESTERDAY) YIELDS HOPE THINGS MAY
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...EYES ON THURSDAY NIGHT POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS...

IMPACTS: STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT DETAILS
TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF WIND IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TO RIDGE TO TROUGH EVOLUTION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATE PERIODS
ENDING IN A TREND TOWARD LONGER PERIOD RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH SUMMER TRYING NOT TO LOOK FOR THE EXIT DOOR TOWARD
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POSSIBLE ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF US WITH SOME LIKELY HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STILL GRAZING AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOME OF THE DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUD ARRIVING QUICKLY TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKISH LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL JETLET. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...BUT PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM AND A BIT OF ADDED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS
IN A HANDFUL OF MUCAPE (~400 J/KG) ARRIVING MORE SO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING. SFC TD`S LIKELY IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH BASED...ARE POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED A
SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH N THE MID-UPPER 70S. GONNA KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP FREE UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
DATA....ESPECIALLY TIMING. HEIGHTS RISE AT LEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DEPART RATHER QUICKLY WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT. SFC
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AROUND DAYBREAK AND EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF
COURSE IN QUESTION. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND EVENTUAL CHANCE
AT SOME STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GUSTY AND WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD MAKE A
RUN AT US AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE FOR THE FOLLOWING: LOTS OF WIND ALOFT...AND IF WE CAN
GENERATE THE INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...AND HEIGHT
FALLS THURSDAY EVENING...MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY GOOD STORM
POTENTIAL. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO...INSTABILITY STORM STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS ROLLING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S....COOLING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RIDGING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS PERIOD THOUGH DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE...OUTSIDE OF WHAT
SEEMS TO BE AN INSIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL SHALLOW SFC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY (MAY BE NORTH OF US IN CANADA). THE IDEA HERE IS TO BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

OUTSIDE OF SOME DENSE FOG AND STRATUS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT
APN...ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL START OFF THE
DAY WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT APN. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...AROUND NOON/EARLY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER NW LOWER AND
INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING APN MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IS THERE AN EXPECTED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR VSBYS IN RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
AIRPORT GETTING HIT WITH SOME SORT OF SHOWERS IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. GAVE A 3-4 HR WINDOW FOR
STORMS WITH VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD. THEN CONDITIONS VFR
WITH SCT- MID CLOUD AROUND...WITH A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST EXIT OF
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS...MAINLY NW LOWER. WINDS SHIFT MORE
WSW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UNDER 10KTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS APPROACH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY...DELIVERING A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ALL THE WATERS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...STRONGEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON LAKE HURON
AND WHITEFISH BAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL CHANNEL UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 KNOTS INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 011501
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SHORT TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON (2PM - 8PM)
EAST OF U.S. 131 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. BRIEF
LOCALIZED FLOODING TYPICAL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S FROM THOSE IN THE MID 60S...IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.  THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS TEMPERATURES AND
DESTABILIZATION OFTHE AIRMASS.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROVIDING LOW LEVEL LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS. ALOFT HOWEVER...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
NOSE OF UPPER JET WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH BEST DEEP
LIFT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA.

INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40
KTS...AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. HOWEVER...LACK OF DEEP
LIFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS AND OVERALL SEVERE THEAT
SIGNICANTLY. THIS SOLUTION IS REFLECTED IN MANY OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING LAST FEW NSSL WRF
AND HRRR RUNS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOMING.

THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING...BUT IT HAS BECOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THEY ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES FROM 14Z OR SO THROUGH 23Z. TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN PREVAILING TIMING AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE
TO TODAY/S STORMS...SO HAVE VCTS WORDING IN ALL THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END WITH MVFR
CEILINGS TRYING TO SETTLE BACK IN.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
FROM 15Z-23Z. WINDS FROM 200-220 AT 15-25 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCA/BEACH HAZARD WORKING WELL WITHWIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AND WAVE
AROUND 4 FT OBSERVED NORTH OF HOLLAND TOWARDS LUDINGTON AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WAVES UP TO 5
FEET. WINDS / WAVES WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SURGING TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THOUGH...SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
SWATHS AS OPPOSED TO BEING WIDESPREAD. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN
BANK...AND FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIVER SYSTEMS WITHOUT MUCH ISSUE.

TODAY/S ISSUE THOUGH WILL BE MONITORING THE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THAT SWEEP THROUGH WITH THE STORMS. THINKING THE MOTION WILL BE
QUICK ENOUGH (NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH)...TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN ISSUE
WITH FLASH FLOODING.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK WITH A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...COBB









000
FXUS63 KGRR 011501
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SHORT TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON (2PM - 8PM)
EAST OF U.S. 131 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. BRIEF
LOCALIZED FLOODING TYPICAL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S FROM THOSE IN THE MID 60S...IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.  THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS TEMPERATURES AND
DESTABILIZATION OFTHE AIRMASS.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROVIDING LOW LEVEL LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS. ALOFT HOWEVER...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
NOSE OF UPPER JET WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH BEST DEEP
LIFT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA.

INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40
KTS...AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. HOWEVER...LACK OF DEEP
LIFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS AND OVERALL SEVERE THEAT
SIGNICANTLY. THIS SOLUTION IS REFLECTED IN MANY OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING LAST FEW NSSL WRF
AND HRRR RUNS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOMING.

THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING...BUT IT HAS BECOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THEY ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES FROM 14Z OR SO THROUGH 23Z. TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN PREVAILING TIMING AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE
TO TODAY/S STORMS...SO HAVE VCTS WORDING IN ALL THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END WITH MVFR
CEILINGS TRYING TO SETTLE BACK IN.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
FROM 15Z-23Z. WINDS FROM 200-220 AT 15-25 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCA/BEACH HAZARD WORKING WELL WITHWIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AND WAVE
AROUND 4 FT OBSERVED NORTH OF HOLLAND TOWARDS LUDINGTON AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WAVES UP TO 5
FEET. WINDS / WAVES WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SURGING TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THOUGH...SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
SWATHS AS OPPOSED TO BEING WIDESPREAD. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN
BANK...AND FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIVER SYSTEMS WITHOUT MUCH ISSUE.

TODAY/S ISSUE THOUGH WILL BE MONITORING THE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THAT SWEEP THROUGH WITH THE STORMS. THINKING THE MOTION WILL BE
QUICK ENOUGH (NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH)...TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN ISSUE
WITH FLASH FLOODING.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK WITH A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...COBB









000
FXUS63 KGRR 011501
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SHORT TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON (2PM - 8PM)
EAST OF U.S. 131 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. BRIEF
LOCALIZED FLOODING TYPICAL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S FROM THOSE IN THE MID 60S...IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.  THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS TEMPERATURES AND
DESTABILIZATION OFTHE AIRMASS.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROVIDING LOW LEVEL LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS. ALOFT HOWEVER...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
NOSE OF UPPER JET WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH BEST DEEP
LIFT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA.

INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40
KTS...AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. HOWEVER...LACK OF DEEP
LIFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS AND OVERALL SEVERE THEAT
SIGNICANTLY. THIS SOLUTION IS REFLECTED IN MANY OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING LAST FEW NSSL WRF
AND HRRR RUNS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOMING.

THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING...BUT IT HAS BECOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THEY ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES FROM 14Z OR SO THROUGH 23Z. TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN PREVAILING TIMING AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE
TO TODAY/S STORMS...SO HAVE VCTS WORDING IN ALL THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END WITH MVFR
CEILINGS TRYING TO SETTLE BACK IN.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
FROM 15Z-23Z. WINDS FROM 200-220 AT 15-25 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCA/BEACH HAZARD WORKING WELL WITHWIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AND WAVE
AROUND 4 FT OBSERVED NORTH OF HOLLAND TOWARDS LUDINGTON AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WAVES UP TO 5
FEET. WINDS / WAVES WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SURGING TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THOUGH...SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
SWATHS AS OPPOSED TO BEING WIDESPREAD. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN
BANK...AND FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIVER SYSTEMS WITHOUT MUCH ISSUE.

TODAY/S ISSUE THOUGH WILL BE MONITORING THE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THAT SWEEP THROUGH WITH THE STORMS. THINKING THE MOTION WILL BE
QUICK ENOUGH (NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH)...TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN ISSUE
WITH FLASH FLOODING.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK WITH A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...COBB









000
FXUS63 KGRR 011501
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SHORT TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON (2PM - 8PM)
EAST OF U.S. 131 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. BRIEF
LOCALIZED FLOODING TYPICAL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S FROM THOSE IN THE MID 60S...IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.  THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS TEMPERATURES AND
DESTABILIZATION OFTHE AIRMASS.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROVIDING LOW LEVEL LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS. ALOFT HOWEVER...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
NOSE OF UPPER JET WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH BEST DEEP
LIFT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA.

INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40
KTS...AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. HOWEVER...LACK OF DEEP
LIFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS AND OVERALL SEVERE THEAT
SIGNICANTLY. THIS SOLUTION IS REFLECTED IN MANY OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING LAST FEW NSSL WRF
AND HRRR RUNS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOMING.

THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING...BUT IT HAS BECOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THEY ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES FROM 14Z OR SO THROUGH 23Z. TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN PREVAILING TIMING AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE
TO TODAY/S STORMS...SO HAVE VCTS WORDING IN ALL THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END WITH MVFR
CEILINGS TRYING TO SETTLE BACK IN.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
FROM 15Z-23Z. WINDS FROM 200-220 AT 15-25 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCA/BEACH HAZARD WORKING WELL WITHWIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AND WAVE
AROUND 4 FT OBSERVED NORTH OF HOLLAND TOWARDS LUDINGTON AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WAVES UP TO 5
FEET. WINDS / WAVES WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SURGING TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THOUGH...SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
SWATHS AS OPPOSED TO BEING WIDESPREAD. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN
BANK...AND FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIVER SYSTEMS WITHOUT MUCH ISSUE.

TODAY/S ISSUE THOUGH WILL BE MONITORING THE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THAT SWEEP THROUGH WITH THE STORMS. THINKING THE MOTION WILL BE
QUICK ENOUGH (NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH)...TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN ISSUE
WITH FLASH FLOODING.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK WITH A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...COBB









000
FXUS63 KAPX 011409
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAINLY IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PROGRESSIVE OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A VORTICITY CENTER ADVANCING ACROSS THE IOWA/
MINNESOTA AREA...PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN. STRONG JET CORE PUNCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF UPPER JET COUPLING
OVER WISCONSIN. A COUPLE DISTINCT BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING...ONE ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN...AND SECOND BATCH THROUGH MISSOURI.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH ONTARIO. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN (EVIDENT AROUND 750 MB ON THE
12Z APX SOUNDING) AND COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN. 12Z APX SOUNDING ALSO REVEALS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
BETWEEN 850 MB AND 650 MB WITH BUBBLY ACCAS MOVING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN (OFTEN A PRECURSOR TO SEVERE WEATHER). BUT MEANWHILE...WITH
INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HINDER HEATING FOR AWHILE.

REST OF TODAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. 50 KNOTS OR SO OF MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN 40 TO 50 KNOTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
MEANWHILE...UPPER JET CORE PUNCHES IN ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. SO...GOOD KINEMATICS IN PLACE WITH DECENT
SYNOPTIC FORCING ROLLING THROUGH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ALREADY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH EARLY HEATING AND BUMP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS HAS EXPANDED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WHICH OBVIOUSLY WILL IMPEDE
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. ON TOP OF THAT...INITIAL BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THICK HIGHER CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES. BUT
FIRST THOUGHTS ARE WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FACED WITH A HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION PROBLEM ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY
REDUCE OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN FACT...NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY
END UP LARGELY SPLIT ONCE AGAIN AS ONE ROUND OF PRECIP RUNS UP
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CANADA WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION TAKES
OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER ROBUST AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS
IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST LAKES...ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A BROADER
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT AS OF
06Z IS SNAKING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG THIS FEATURE...THOUGH MOST AREAS ALONG THE FRONT ARE RECEIVING
RAIN IN SOME FORM. HELPING THE CAUSE IS A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET POKING FROM CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WISCONSIN AND
HELPING MAINTAIN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF WHAT WAS ALREADY A LONG-LIVED
MCS FEATURE EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE BETTER LLJ CONVERGENCE
IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT IS HELPING
TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF MUCH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP IN OUR
DIRECTION AND QUELLING THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MCS
IS RUNNING SQUARELY INTO A TREMENDOUSLY DRIER AIRMASS...WITH A
NOTABLE POCKET OF VERY DRY 850-750MB DEW POINTS RESIDING OVER MUCH
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN (NOT TO MENTION
NORTHERN MICHIGAN).

OF COURSE WITH TODAY BEING THE BIG HOLIDAY AND UNOFFICIAL SENDOFF TO
SUMMER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS OUR
DRY FORECAST BEFORE 16Z/NOON SHOULD HOLD JUST FINE. ABOVE-MENTIONED
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS LIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LAKES. AS THAT OCCURS...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY GET GOING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN...PROBABLY SENDING SOME THICKER CIRRUS IN OUR DIRECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SURFACE HEATING AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MARCHING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY 18Z. GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO A CORE OF
H8 TEMPS NEARING 17C ALOFT...HIGHS COULD THEORETICALLY PUSH AS HIGH
AS THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER ON
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

ALL THE WHILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP ALOFT...WHILE
SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEP BACK THROUGH THE 60 TO PERHAPS NEAR
70...FUELING INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES UP TOWARD 1500+ J/KG. ADD THE
ARRIVAL OF A 55 KNOT MID LEVEL JET CORE FROM 18-00Z AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND PRE-FRONTAL THERMALLY-DRIVEN TROUGHING...AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY PROPAGATING AND/OR
REDEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT NOON ONWARD. DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THOUGH WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. INITIAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS FROM PRECIP LOADING...WHILE SHEAR AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL (WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
11-12KFT) LEND CREDENCE TO A LARGER HAIL POTENTIAL. GOING SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN ALL PRODUCTS AS THE SETUP CERTAINLY
LOOKS AS GOOD OF ONE WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER SEASON.

MAY SEE A TRAILING AXIS OF RAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...COURTESY OF ENHANCED
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WORKING SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A VERY
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE ONGOING UPPER MISS VALLEY MCS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THAT JET AXIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST AND OVERTAKES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER AS DRIER AIR AND WANING FORCING
ARRIVE BY SUNRISE. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY SEE SOME THICKER
STRATUS FIRE OFF IN A STILL QUITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BELOW 900MB (OFTEN THE CALLING CARD FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUMMER STRATUS - SEE YESTERDAY) YIELDS HOPE THINGS MAY
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...EYES ON THURSDAY NIGHT POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS...

IMPACTS: STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT DETAILS
TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF WIND IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TO RIDGE TO TROUGH EVOLUTION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATE PERIODS
ENDING IN A TREND TOWARD LONGER PERIOD RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH SUMMER TRYING NOT TO LOOK FOR THE EXIT DOOR TOWARD
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POSSIBLE ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF US WITH SOME LIKELY HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STILL GRAZING AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOME OF THE DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUD ARRIVING QUICKLY TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKISH LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL JETLET. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...BUT PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM AND A BIT OF ADDED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS
IN A HANDFUL OF MUCAPE (~400 J/KG) ARRIVING MORE SO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING. SFC TD`S LIKELY IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH BASED...ARE POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED A
SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH N THE MID-UPPER 70S. GONNA KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP FREE UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
DATA....ESPECIALLY TIMING. HEIGHTS RISE AT LEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DEPART RATHER QUICKLY WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT. SFC
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AROUND DAYBREAK AND EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF
COURSE IN QUESTION. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND EVENTUAL CHANCE
AT SOME STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GUSTY AND WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD MAKE A
RUN AT US AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE FOR THE FOLLOWING: LOTS OF WIND ALOFT...AND IF WE CAN
GENERATE THE INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...AND HEIGHT
FALLS THURSDAY EVENING...MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY GOOD STORM
POTENTIAL. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO...INSTABILITY STORM STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS ROLLING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S....COOLING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RIDGING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS PERIOD THOUGH DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE...OUTSIDE OF WHAT
SEEMS TO BE AN INSIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL SHALLOW SFC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY (MAY BE NORTH OF US IN CANADA). THE IDEA HERE IS TO BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

OUTSIDE OF SOME DENSE FOG AND STRATUS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT
APN...ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL START OFF THE
DAY WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT APN. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...AROUND NOON/EARLY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER NW LOWER AND
INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING APN MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IS THERE AN EXPECTED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR VSBYS IN RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
AIRPORT GETTING HIT WITH SOME SORT OF SHOWERS IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. GAVE A 3-4 HR WINDOW FOR
STORMS WITH VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD. THEN CONDITIONS VFR
WITH SCT- MID CLOUD AROUND...WITH A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST EXIT OF
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS...MAINLY NW LOWER. WINDS SHIFT MORE
WSW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UNDER 10KTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS APPROACH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY...DELIVERING A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ALL THE WATERS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...STRONGEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON LAKE HURON
AND WHITEFISH BAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL CHANNEL UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 KNOTS INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...LAWRENCE






000
FXUS63 KAPX 011409
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAINLY IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PROGRESSIVE OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A VORTICITY CENTER ADVANCING ACROSS THE IOWA/
MINNESOTA AREA...PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN. STRONG JET CORE PUNCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF UPPER JET COUPLING
OVER WISCONSIN. A COUPLE DISTINCT BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING...ONE ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN...AND SECOND BATCH THROUGH MISSOURI.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH ONTARIO. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN (EVIDENT AROUND 750 MB ON THE
12Z APX SOUNDING) AND COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN. 12Z APX SOUNDING ALSO REVEALS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
BETWEEN 850 MB AND 650 MB WITH BUBBLY ACCAS MOVING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN (OFTEN A PRECURSOR TO SEVERE WEATHER). BUT MEANWHILE...WITH
INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HINDER HEATING FOR AWHILE.

REST OF TODAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. 50 KNOTS OR SO OF MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN 40 TO 50 KNOTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
MEANWHILE...UPPER JET CORE PUNCHES IN ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. SO...GOOD KINEMATICS IN PLACE WITH DECENT
SYNOPTIC FORCING ROLLING THROUGH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ALREADY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH EARLY HEATING AND BUMP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS HAS EXPANDED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WHICH OBVIOUSLY WILL IMPEDE
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. ON TOP OF THAT...INITIAL BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THICK HIGHER CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES. BUT
FIRST THOUGHTS ARE WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FACED WITH A HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION PROBLEM ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY
REDUCE OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN FACT...NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY
END UP LARGELY SPLIT ONCE AGAIN AS ONE ROUND OF PRECIP RUNS UP
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN INTO CANADA WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION TAKES
OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER ROBUST AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS
IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST LAKES...ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A BROADER
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT AS OF
06Z IS SNAKING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG THIS FEATURE...THOUGH MOST AREAS ALONG THE FRONT ARE RECEIVING
RAIN IN SOME FORM. HELPING THE CAUSE IS A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET POKING FROM CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WISCONSIN AND
HELPING MAINTAIN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF WHAT WAS ALREADY A LONG-LIVED
MCS FEATURE EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE BETTER LLJ CONVERGENCE
IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT IS HELPING
TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF MUCH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP IN OUR
DIRECTION AND QUELLING THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MCS
IS RUNNING SQUARELY INTO A TREMENDOUSLY DRIER AIRMASS...WITH A
NOTABLE POCKET OF VERY DRY 850-750MB DEW POINTS RESIDING OVER MUCH
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN (NOT TO MENTION
NORTHERN MICHIGAN).

OF COURSE WITH TODAY BEING THE BIG HOLIDAY AND UNOFFICIAL SENDOFF TO
SUMMER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS OUR
DRY FORECAST BEFORE 16Z/NOON SHOULD HOLD JUST FINE. ABOVE-MENTIONED
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS LIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LAKES. AS THAT OCCURS...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY GET GOING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN...PROBABLY SENDING SOME THICKER CIRRUS IN OUR DIRECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SURFACE HEATING AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MARCHING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY 18Z. GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO A CORE OF
H8 TEMPS NEARING 17C ALOFT...HIGHS COULD THEORETICALLY PUSH AS HIGH
AS THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER ON
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

ALL THE WHILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP ALOFT...WHILE
SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEP BACK THROUGH THE 60 TO PERHAPS NEAR
70...FUELING INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES UP TOWARD 1500+ J/KG. ADD THE
ARRIVAL OF A 55 KNOT MID LEVEL JET CORE FROM 18-00Z AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND PRE-FRONTAL THERMALLY-DRIVEN TROUGHING...AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY PROPAGATING AND/OR
REDEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT NOON ONWARD. DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THOUGH WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. INITIAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS FROM PRECIP LOADING...WHILE SHEAR AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL (WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
11-12KFT) LEND CREDENCE TO A LARGER HAIL POTENTIAL. GOING SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN ALL PRODUCTS AS THE SETUP CERTAINLY
LOOKS AS GOOD OF ONE WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER SEASON.

MAY SEE A TRAILING AXIS OF RAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...COURTESY OF ENHANCED
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WORKING SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A VERY
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE ONGOING UPPER MISS VALLEY MCS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THAT JET AXIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST AND OVERTAKES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER AS DRIER AIR AND WANING FORCING
ARRIVE BY SUNRISE. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY SEE SOME THICKER
STRATUS FIRE OFF IN A STILL QUITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BELOW 900MB (OFTEN THE CALLING CARD FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUMMER STRATUS - SEE YESTERDAY) YIELDS HOPE THINGS MAY
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...EYES ON THURSDAY NIGHT POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS...

IMPACTS: STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT DETAILS
TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF WIND IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TO RIDGE TO TROUGH EVOLUTION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATE PERIODS
ENDING IN A TREND TOWARD LONGER PERIOD RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH SUMMER TRYING NOT TO LOOK FOR THE EXIT DOOR TOWARD
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POSSIBLE ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF US WITH SOME LIKELY HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STILL GRAZING AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOME OF THE DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUD ARRIVING QUICKLY TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKISH LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL JETLET. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...BUT PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM AND A BIT OF ADDED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS
IN A HANDFUL OF MUCAPE (~400 J/KG) ARRIVING MORE SO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING. SFC TD`S LIKELY IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH BASED...ARE POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED A
SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH N THE MID-UPPER 70S. GONNA KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP FREE UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
DATA....ESPECIALLY TIMING. HEIGHTS RISE AT LEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DEPART RATHER QUICKLY WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT. SFC
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AROUND DAYBREAK AND EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF
COURSE IN QUESTION. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND EVENTUAL CHANCE
AT SOME STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GUSTY AND WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD MAKE A
RUN AT US AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE FOR THE FOLLOWING: LOTS OF WIND ALOFT...AND IF WE CAN
GENERATE THE INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...AND HEIGHT
FALLS THURSDAY EVENING...MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY GOOD STORM
POTENTIAL. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO...INSTABILITY STORM STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS ROLLING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S....COOLING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RIDGING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS PERIOD THOUGH DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE...OUTSIDE OF WHAT
SEEMS TO BE AN INSIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL SHALLOW SFC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY (MAY BE NORTH OF US IN CANADA). THE IDEA HERE IS TO BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

OUTSIDE OF SOME DENSE FOG AND STRATUS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT
APN...ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL START OFF THE
DAY WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT APN. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...AROUND NOON/EARLY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER NW LOWER AND
INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING APN MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IS THERE AN EXPECTED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR VSBYS IN RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
AIRPORT GETTING HIT WITH SOME SORT OF SHOWERS IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. GAVE A 3-4 HR WINDOW FOR
STORMS WITH VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD. THEN CONDITIONS VFR
WITH SCT- MID CLOUD AROUND...WITH A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST EXIT OF
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS...MAINLY NW LOWER. WINDS SHIFT MORE
WSW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UNDER 10KTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS APPROACH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY...DELIVERING A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ALL THE WATERS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...STRONGEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON LAKE HURON
AND WHITEFISH BAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL CHANNEL UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 KNOTS INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 011149
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS DETERMINING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FEEL THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY BY ANY
MEANS. THERE ARE FACTORS BOTH FOR AND AGAINST SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH GOING FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
THREAT.

IN TERMS OF THE PARAMETERS THAT ARE GOING FOR THIS EVENT...WE HAVE A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOLID WIND FIELDS...30-35 KNOT LLJ...40-55 KNOT MID LEVEL
JET RESULTING IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION. SURFACE DEW
POINT SHOULD SURGE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MOST PLACES THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOLID 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONGOING FROM 15Z
THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

THE QUESTION MARKS WITH THIS EVENT ARE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS
PIVOTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WELL AS THE AREA BEING
IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. HENCE...THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. INSTABILITY IS A QUESTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WILL BE TRYING TO PRESS IN
FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE EVENT MAY GET GOING
BEFORE PEAK HEATING. FEEL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT CAPE VALUES THOUGH ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

SHORT TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALL SHOW SOME ACTIVITY
SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EVENING (NOON THROUGH 800 PM). FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM STORMS
TODAY IN OUR AREA WILL BE STRONG WINDS GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS IN
PLACE. NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX. THE MODELS ALSO
SHOW SOMEWHAT OF LAKE SHADOW TO THE CONVECTION...BUT THIS MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO OUR LOCATION SOUTH OF THE BEST DYNAMICS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOMING.

THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING...BUT IT HAS BECOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THEY ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES FROM 14Z OR SO THROUGH 23Z. TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN PREVAILING TIMING AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE
TO TODAY/S STORMS...SO HAVE VCTS WORDING IN ALL THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END WITH MVFR
CEILINGS TRYING TO SETTLE BACK IN.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
FROM 15Z-23Z. WINDS FROM 200-220 AT 15-25 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WE WILL BE KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP THIS
MORNING AS THE SW GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT. THE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD PEAK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THEN COMING DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SURGING TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THOUGH...SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
SWATHS AS OPPOSED TO BEING WIDESPREAD. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN
BANK...AND FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIVER SYSTEMS WITHOUT MUCH ISSUE.

TODAY/S ISSUE THOUGH WILL BE MONITORING THE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THAT SWEEP THROUGH WITH THE STORMS. THINKING THE MOTION WILL BE
QUICK ENOUGH (NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH)...TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN ISSUE
WITH FLASH FLOODING.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK WITH A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 011149
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS DETERMINING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FEEL THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY BY ANY
MEANS. THERE ARE FACTORS BOTH FOR AND AGAINST SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH GOING FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
THREAT.

IN TERMS OF THE PARAMETERS THAT ARE GOING FOR THIS EVENT...WE HAVE A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOLID WIND FIELDS...30-35 KNOT LLJ...40-55 KNOT MID LEVEL
JET RESULTING IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION. SURFACE DEW
POINT SHOULD SURGE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MOST PLACES THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOLID 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONGOING FROM 15Z
THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

THE QUESTION MARKS WITH THIS EVENT ARE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS
PIVOTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WELL AS THE AREA BEING
IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. HENCE...THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. INSTABILITY IS A QUESTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WILL BE TRYING TO PRESS IN
FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE EVENT MAY GET GOING
BEFORE PEAK HEATING. FEEL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT CAPE VALUES THOUGH ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

SHORT TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALL SHOW SOME ACTIVITY
SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EVENING (NOON THROUGH 800 PM). FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM STORMS
TODAY IN OUR AREA WILL BE STRONG WINDS GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS IN
PLACE. NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX. THE MODELS ALSO
SHOW SOMEWHAT OF LAKE SHADOW TO THE CONVECTION...BUT THIS MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO OUR LOCATION SOUTH OF THE BEST DYNAMICS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOMING.

THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING...BUT IT HAS BECOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THEY ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES FROM 14Z OR SO THROUGH 23Z. TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN PREVAILING TIMING AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE
TO TODAY/S STORMS...SO HAVE VCTS WORDING IN ALL THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END WITH MVFR
CEILINGS TRYING TO SETTLE BACK IN.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
FROM 15Z-23Z. WINDS FROM 200-220 AT 15-25 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WE WILL BE KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP THIS
MORNING AS THE SW GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT. THE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD PEAK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THEN COMING DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SURGING TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THOUGH...SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
SWATHS AS OPPOSED TO BEING WIDESPREAD. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN
BANK...AND FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIVER SYSTEMS WITHOUT MUCH ISSUE.

TODAY/S ISSUE THOUGH WILL BE MONITORING THE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THAT SWEEP THROUGH WITH THE STORMS. THINKING THE MOTION WILL BE
QUICK ENOUGH (NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH)...TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN ISSUE
WITH FLASH FLOODING.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK WITH A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 011149
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS DETERMINING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FEEL THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY BY ANY
MEANS. THERE ARE FACTORS BOTH FOR AND AGAINST SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH GOING FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
THREAT.

IN TERMS OF THE PARAMETERS THAT ARE GOING FOR THIS EVENT...WE HAVE A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOLID WIND FIELDS...30-35 KNOT LLJ...40-55 KNOT MID LEVEL
JET RESULTING IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION. SURFACE DEW
POINT SHOULD SURGE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MOST PLACES THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOLID 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONGOING FROM 15Z
THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

THE QUESTION MARKS WITH THIS EVENT ARE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS
PIVOTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WELL AS THE AREA BEING
IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. HENCE...THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. INSTABILITY IS A QUESTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WILL BE TRYING TO PRESS IN
FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE EVENT MAY GET GOING
BEFORE PEAK HEATING. FEEL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT CAPE VALUES THOUGH ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

SHORT TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALL SHOW SOME ACTIVITY
SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EVENING (NOON THROUGH 800 PM). FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM STORMS
TODAY IN OUR AREA WILL BE STRONG WINDS GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS IN
PLACE. NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX. THE MODELS ALSO
SHOW SOMEWHAT OF LAKE SHADOW TO THE CONVECTION...BUT THIS MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO OUR LOCATION SOUTH OF THE BEST DYNAMICS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOMING.

THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING...BUT IT HAS BECOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THEY ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES FROM 14Z OR SO THROUGH 23Z. TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN PREVAILING TIMING AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE
TO TODAY/S STORMS...SO HAVE VCTS WORDING IN ALL THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END WITH MVFR
CEILINGS TRYING TO SETTLE BACK IN.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
FROM 15Z-23Z. WINDS FROM 200-220 AT 15-25 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WE WILL BE KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP THIS
MORNING AS THE SW GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT. THE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD PEAK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THEN COMING DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SURGING TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THOUGH...SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
SWATHS AS OPPOSED TO BEING WIDESPREAD. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN
BANK...AND FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIVER SYSTEMS WITHOUT MUCH ISSUE.

TODAY/S ISSUE THOUGH WILL BE MONITORING THE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THAT SWEEP THROUGH WITH THE STORMS. THINKING THE MOTION WILL BE
QUICK ENOUGH (NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH)...TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN ISSUE
WITH FLASH FLOODING.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK WITH A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 011149
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS DETERMINING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FEEL THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY BY ANY
MEANS. THERE ARE FACTORS BOTH FOR AND AGAINST SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH GOING FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
THREAT.

IN TERMS OF THE PARAMETERS THAT ARE GOING FOR THIS EVENT...WE HAVE A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOLID WIND FIELDS...30-35 KNOT LLJ...40-55 KNOT MID LEVEL
JET RESULTING IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION. SURFACE DEW
POINT SHOULD SURGE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MOST PLACES THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOLID 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONGOING FROM 15Z
THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

THE QUESTION MARKS WITH THIS EVENT ARE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS
PIVOTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WELL AS THE AREA BEING
IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. HENCE...THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. INSTABILITY IS A QUESTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WILL BE TRYING TO PRESS IN
FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE EVENT MAY GET GOING
BEFORE PEAK HEATING. FEEL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT CAPE VALUES THOUGH ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

SHORT TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALL SHOW SOME ACTIVITY
SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EVENING (NOON THROUGH 800 PM). FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM STORMS
TODAY IN OUR AREA WILL BE STRONG WINDS GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS IN
PLACE. NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX. THE MODELS ALSO
SHOW SOMEWHAT OF LAKE SHADOW TO THE CONVECTION...BUT THIS MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO OUR LOCATION SOUTH OF THE BEST DYNAMICS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOMING.

THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING...BUT IT HAS BECOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THEY ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES FROM 14Z OR SO THROUGH 23Z. TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN PREVAILING TIMING AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE
TO TODAY/S STORMS...SO HAVE VCTS WORDING IN ALL THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END WITH MVFR
CEILINGS TRYING TO SETTLE BACK IN.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
FROM 15Z-23Z. WINDS FROM 200-220 AT 15-25 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WE WILL BE KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP THIS
MORNING AS THE SW GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT. THE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD PEAK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THEN COMING DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SURGING TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THOUGH...SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
SWATHS AS OPPOSED TO BEING WIDESPREAD. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN
BANK...AND FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIVER SYSTEMS WITHOUT MUCH ISSUE.

TODAY/S ISSUE THOUGH WILL BE MONITORING THE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THAT SWEEP THROUGH WITH THE STORMS. THINKING THE MOTION WILL BE
QUICK ENOUGH (NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH)...TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN ISSUE
WITH FLASH FLOODING.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK WITH A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KMQT 011144
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
744 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR INL THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. A WEAK SHRTWV
FROM NE MN INTO NW WI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
OVER ERN MN INTO NW WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONGER SHRTWV WAS
LOCATED OVER SW MN INTO NW IA. WITH ONLY MODEST 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...ONLY A FEW TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION. THE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONGER 850 THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

TODAY...AS THE NW IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA WITH MODERATE
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH
0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SINCE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...MAINLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
QVECTOR DIV SPREADS INTO UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE EVENING WILL
END EARLY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ALSO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED LATE OVER THE SW CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE SHRA...MVFR
CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE EARLY. THE CIGS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR
RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FRONT PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS
TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND BEHIND THE FROPA WILL TAP
DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION BEHIND A FROPA AND WITH SOME
CONTINUED -SHRA SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE SRLY FLOW. EXPECT SOME SHRA WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOPP BY LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SFC
COLD FRONT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO
A DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE
FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 011130
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
730 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAINLY IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER ROBUST AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS
IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST LAKES...ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A BROADER
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT AS OF
06Z IS SNAKING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG THIS FEATURE...THOUGH MOST AREAS ALONG THE FRONT ARE RECEIVING
RAIN IN SOME FORM. HELPING THE CAUSE IS A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET POKING FROM CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WISCONSIN AND
HELPING MAINTAIN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF WHAT WAS ALREADY A LONG-LIVED
MCS FEATURE EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE BETTER LLJ CONVERGENCE
IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT IS HELPING
TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF MUCH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP IN OUR
DIRECTION AND QUELLING THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MCS
IS RUNNING SQUARELY INTO A TREMENDOUSLY DRIER AIRMASS...WITH A
NOTABLE POCKET OF VERY DRY 850-750MB DEW POINTS RESIDING OVER MUCH
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN (NOT TO MENTION
NORTHERN MICHIGAN).

OF COURSE WITH TODAY BEING THE BIG HOLIDAY AND UNOFFICIAL SENDOFF TO
SUMMER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS OUR
DRY FORECAST BEFORE 16Z/NOON SHOULD HOLD JUST FINE. ABOVE-MENTIONED
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS LIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LAKES. AS THAT OCCURS...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY GET GOING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN...PROBABLY SENDING SOME THICKER CIRRUS IN OUR DIRECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SURFACE HEATING AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MARCHING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY 18Z. GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO A CORE OF
H8 TEMPS NEARING 17C ALOFT...HIGHS COULD THEORETICALLY PUSH AS HIGH
AS THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER ON
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

ALL THE WHILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP ALOFT...WHILE
SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEP BACK THROUGH THE 60 TO PERHAPS NEAR
70...FUELING INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES UP TOWARD 1500+ J/KG. ADD THE
ARRIVAL OF A 55 KNOT MID LEVEL JET CORE FROM 18-00Z AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND PRE-FRONTAL THERMALLY-DRIVEN TROUGHING...AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY PROPAGATING AND/OR
REDEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT NOON ONWARD. DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THOUGH WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. INITIAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS FROM PRECIP LOADING...WHILE SHEAR AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL (WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
11-12KFT) LEND CREDENCE TO A LARGER HAIL POTENTIAL. GOING SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN ALL PRODUCTS AS THE SETUP CERTAINLY
LOOKS AS GOOD OF ONE WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER SEASON.

MAY SEE A TRAILING AXIS OF RAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...COURTESY OF ENHANCED
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WORKING SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A VERY
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE ONGOING UPPER MISS VALLEY MCS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THAT JET AXIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST AND OVERTAKES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER AS DRIER AIR AND WANING FORCING
ARRIVE BY SUNRISE. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY SEE SOME THICKER
STRATUS FIRE OFF IN A STILL QUITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BELOW 900MB (OFTEN THE CALLING CARD FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUMMER STRATUS - SEE YESTERDAY) YIELDS HOPE THINGS MAY
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...EYES ON THURSDAY NIGHT POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS...

IMPACTS: STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT DETAILS
TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF WIND IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TO RIDGE TO TROUGH EVOLUTION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATE PERIODS
ENDING IN A TREND TOWARD LONGER PERIOD RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH SUMMER TRYING NOT TO LOOK FOR THE EXIT DOOR TOWARD
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POSSIBLE ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF US WITH SOME LIKELY HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STILL GRAZING AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOME OF THE DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUD ARRIVING QUICKLY TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKISH LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL JETLET. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...BUT PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM AND A BIT OF ADDED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS
IN A HANDFUL OF MUCAPE (~400 J/KG) ARRIVING MORE SO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING. SFC TD`S LIKELY IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH BASED...ARE POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED A
SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH N THE MID-UPPER 70S. GONNA KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP FREE UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
DATA....ESPECIALLY TIMING. HEIGHTS RISE AT LEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DEPART RATHER QUICKLY WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT. SFC
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AROUND DAYBREAK AND EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF
COURSE IN QUESTION. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND EVENTUAL CHANCE
AT SOME STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GUSTY AND WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD MAKE A
RUN AT US AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE FOR THE FOLLOWING: LOTS OF WIND ALOFT...AND IF WE CAN
GENERATE THE INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...AND HEIGHT
FALLS THURSDAY EVENING...MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY GOOD STORM
POTENTIAL. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO...INSTABILITY STORM STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS ROLLING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S....COOLING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RIDGING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS PERIOD THOUGH DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE...OUTSIDE OF WHAT
SEEMS TO BE AN INSIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL SHALLOW SFC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY (MAY BE NORTH OF US IN CANADA). THE IDEA HERE IS TO BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

OUTSIDE OF SOME DENSE FOG AND STRATUS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT
APN...ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL START OFF THE
DAY WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT APN. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...AROUND NOON/EARLY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER NW LOWER AND
INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING APN MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IS THERE AN EXPECTED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR VSBYS IN RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
AIRPORT GETTING HIT WITH SOME SORT OF SHOWERS IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. GAVE A 3-4 HR WINDOW FOR
STORMS WITH VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD. THEN CONDITIONS VFR
WITH SCT- MID CLOUD AROUND...WITH A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST EXIT OF
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS...MAINLY NW LOWER. WINDS SHIFT MORE
WSW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS APPROACH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY...DELIVERING A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ALL THE WATERS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...STRONGEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON LAKE HURON
AND WHITEFISH BAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL CHANNEL UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 KNOTS INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 011130
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
730 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAINLY IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER ROBUST AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS
IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST LAKES...ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A BROADER
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT AS OF
06Z IS SNAKING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG THIS FEATURE...THOUGH MOST AREAS ALONG THE FRONT ARE RECEIVING
RAIN IN SOME FORM. HELPING THE CAUSE IS A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET POKING FROM CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WISCONSIN AND
HELPING MAINTAIN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF WHAT WAS ALREADY A LONG-LIVED
MCS FEATURE EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE BETTER LLJ CONVERGENCE
IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT IS HELPING
TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF MUCH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP IN OUR
DIRECTION AND QUELLING THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MCS
IS RUNNING SQUARELY INTO A TREMENDOUSLY DRIER AIRMASS...WITH A
NOTABLE POCKET OF VERY DRY 850-750MB DEW POINTS RESIDING OVER MUCH
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN (NOT TO MENTION
NORTHERN MICHIGAN).

OF COURSE WITH TODAY BEING THE BIG HOLIDAY AND UNOFFICIAL SENDOFF TO
SUMMER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS OUR
DRY FORECAST BEFORE 16Z/NOON SHOULD HOLD JUST FINE. ABOVE-MENTIONED
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS LIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LAKES. AS THAT OCCURS...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY GET GOING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN...PROBABLY SENDING SOME THICKER CIRRUS IN OUR DIRECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SURFACE HEATING AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MARCHING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY 18Z. GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO A CORE OF
H8 TEMPS NEARING 17C ALOFT...HIGHS COULD THEORETICALLY PUSH AS HIGH
AS THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER ON
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

ALL THE WHILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP ALOFT...WHILE
SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEP BACK THROUGH THE 60 TO PERHAPS NEAR
70...FUELING INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES UP TOWARD 1500+ J/KG. ADD THE
ARRIVAL OF A 55 KNOT MID LEVEL JET CORE FROM 18-00Z AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND PRE-FRONTAL THERMALLY-DRIVEN TROUGHING...AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY PROPAGATING AND/OR
REDEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT NOON ONWARD. DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THOUGH WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. INITIAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS FROM PRECIP LOADING...WHILE SHEAR AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL (WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
11-12KFT) LEND CREDENCE TO A LARGER HAIL POTENTIAL. GOING SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN ALL PRODUCTS AS THE SETUP CERTAINLY
LOOKS AS GOOD OF ONE WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER SEASON.

MAY SEE A TRAILING AXIS OF RAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...COURTESY OF ENHANCED
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WORKING SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A VERY
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE ONGOING UPPER MISS VALLEY MCS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THAT JET AXIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST AND OVERTAKES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER AS DRIER AIR AND WANING FORCING
ARRIVE BY SUNRISE. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY SEE SOME THICKER
STRATUS FIRE OFF IN A STILL QUITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BELOW 900MB (OFTEN THE CALLING CARD FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUMMER STRATUS - SEE YESTERDAY) YIELDS HOPE THINGS MAY
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...EYES ON THURSDAY NIGHT POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS...

IMPACTS: STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT DETAILS
TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF WIND IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TO RIDGE TO TROUGH EVOLUTION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATE PERIODS
ENDING IN A TREND TOWARD LONGER PERIOD RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH SUMMER TRYING NOT TO LOOK FOR THE EXIT DOOR TOWARD
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POSSIBLE ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF US WITH SOME LIKELY HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STILL GRAZING AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOME OF THE DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUD ARRIVING QUICKLY TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKISH LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL JETLET. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...BUT PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM AND A BIT OF ADDED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS
IN A HANDFUL OF MUCAPE (~400 J/KG) ARRIVING MORE SO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING. SFC TD`S LIKELY IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH BASED...ARE POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED A
SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH N THE MID-UPPER 70S. GONNA KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP FREE UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
DATA....ESPECIALLY TIMING. HEIGHTS RISE AT LEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DEPART RATHER QUICKLY WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT. SFC
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AROUND DAYBREAK AND EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF
COURSE IN QUESTION. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND EVENTUAL CHANCE
AT SOME STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GUSTY AND WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD MAKE A
RUN AT US AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE FOR THE FOLLOWING: LOTS OF WIND ALOFT...AND IF WE CAN
GENERATE THE INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...AND HEIGHT
FALLS THURSDAY EVENING...MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY GOOD STORM
POTENTIAL. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO...INSTABILITY STORM STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS ROLLING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S....COOLING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RIDGING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS PERIOD THOUGH DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE...OUTSIDE OF WHAT
SEEMS TO BE AN INSIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL SHALLOW SFC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY (MAY BE NORTH OF US IN CANADA). THE IDEA HERE IS TO BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

OUTSIDE OF SOME DENSE FOG AND STRATUS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT
APN...ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL START OFF THE
DAY WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT APN. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...AROUND NOON/EARLY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER NW LOWER AND
INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING APN MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IS THERE AN EXPECTED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR VSBYS IN RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
AIRPORT GETTING HIT WITH SOME SORT OF SHOWERS IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. GAVE A 3-4 HR WINDOW FOR
STORMS WITH VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD. THEN CONDITIONS VFR
WITH SCT- MID CLOUD AROUND...WITH A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST EXIT OF
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS...MAINLY NW LOWER. WINDS SHIFT MORE
WSW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS APPROACH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY...DELIVERING A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ALL THE WATERS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...STRONGEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON LAKE HURON
AND WHITEFISH BAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL CHANNEL UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 KNOTS INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KDTX 011103
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
703 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

FOG AND STRATUS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER SE MICHIGAN WILL
PRESENT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS THE FIRST CONCERN FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AND SURFACE HEATING
WILL HELP LIFT THE FOG AND MIX THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BECOME THE MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
THE ENTIRE TERMINAL CORRIDOR...FIRST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
MID EVENING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY...AND THEN FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS SE MICHIGAN. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE ON TRACK TO EXIT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY LEAVING BEHIND ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOR DTW... A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THE MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
FOR DTW.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SUBJECT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND SE
MICHIGAN. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY SURFACE BASED STORMS LIKELY INITIATING IN THE LEE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE/MCV REMNANTS INTERACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DURING PEAK HEATING. A SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS IS THEN LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH OUR AREA MID EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGLY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE
DISSIPATING TREND ADVERTISED IN MODEL DATA AND THE SCENARIO OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. THIS DISSIPATING
TREND IS HAPPENING SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ERODE
AND/OR GET CARRIED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THAT LEAVES JUST PATCHY MID CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS...AS A MINIMAL OBSTRUCTION TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
TO START THE DAY. IT THEN SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME MAX TEMPS OF
80-85 WILL BE REACHABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AROUND 70 CARRYING
0-1KM LAYER CAPE TOWARD 1500 J/KG. A SURFACE PARCEL AT 85/72
GENERATES SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AS A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THESE VALUES ARE PLENTY HIGH ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...WITH MOST OF THAT IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTER
EARLY ON WITH SPLITS AND MERGERS GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS CONVECTION MATURES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY LIMITED TO ONLY THE STRONGEST MESO ENHANCED UPDRAFTS DUE TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE EXCEEDING 300 J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM ALONG
WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND LCL BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000
FT. THESE ARE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR TORNADOGENESIS.

ROUND TWO OF STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY THE COLD FRONT WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA TOWARD LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BOTH DUE TO THE DOWNSIDE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRECEDING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENDS UP THE FOCUS
OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
POST FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH THE MODELS
SUGGEST WILL BE MINIMAL...INSTEAD FOCUSING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/MOISTURE
AXIS WILL HAVE CLEARED SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
A DRAMATIC DRYING TREND TAKING PLACE AS PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER ARE JUST ABOUT CUT IN HALF TO AROUND 1 INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKING OUT
OF EASTERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE
BACKED...SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH...AND CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...AS DAYTIME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SETS IN AS WELL...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG TO WORK WITH PER
00Z NAM. ALTHOUGH...THE 00Z GFS IS DRIER AND DECIDEDLY MORE
ANTICYCLONIC AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE WETTEST.

SHORT LIVED ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS THE 80S APPEAR IN
THE OFFING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD 20 C ON THURSDAY...AND
REACH OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 C ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAKES A RUN
TOWARD A 90 DEGREE DAY A REAL POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
WILL PROBABLY ALREADY BE ARRIVING...SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HINDER
MAXES. MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 011103
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
703 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

FOG AND STRATUS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER SE MICHIGAN WILL
PRESENT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS THE FIRST CONCERN FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AND SURFACE HEATING
WILL HELP LIFT THE FOG AND MIX THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BECOME THE MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
THE ENTIRE TERMINAL CORRIDOR...FIRST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
MID EVENING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY...AND THEN FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS SE MICHIGAN. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE ON TRACK TO EXIT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY LEAVING BEHIND ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOR DTW... A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THE MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
FOR DTW.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SUBJECT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND SE
MICHIGAN. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY SURFACE BASED STORMS LIKELY INITIATING IN THE LEE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE/MCV REMNANTS INTERACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DURING PEAK HEATING. A SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS IS THEN LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH OUR AREA MID EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGLY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE
DISSIPATING TREND ADVERTISED IN MODEL DATA AND THE SCENARIO OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. THIS DISSIPATING
TREND IS HAPPENING SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ERODE
AND/OR GET CARRIED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THAT LEAVES JUST PATCHY MID CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS...AS A MINIMAL OBSTRUCTION TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
TO START THE DAY. IT THEN SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME MAX TEMPS OF
80-85 WILL BE REACHABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AROUND 70 CARRYING
0-1KM LAYER CAPE TOWARD 1500 J/KG. A SURFACE PARCEL AT 85/72
GENERATES SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AS A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THESE VALUES ARE PLENTY HIGH ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...WITH MOST OF THAT IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTER
EARLY ON WITH SPLITS AND MERGERS GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS CONVECTION MATURES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY LIMITED TO ONLY THE STRONGEST MESO ENHANCED UPDRAFTS DUE TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE EXCEEDING 300 J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM ALONG
WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND LCL BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000
FT. THESE ARE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR TORNADOGENESIS.

ROUND TWO OF STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY THE COLD FRONT WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA TOWARD LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BOTH DUE TO THE DOWNSIDE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRECEDING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENDS UP THE FOCUS
OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
POST FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH THE MODELS
SUGGEST WILL BE MINIMAL...INSTEAD FOCUSING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/MOISTURE
AXIS WILL HAVE CLEARED SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
A DRAMATIC DRYING TREND TAKING PLACE AS PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER ARE JUST ABOUT CUT IN HALF TO AROUND 1 INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKING OUT
OF EASTERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE
BACKED...SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH...AND CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...AS DAYTIME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SETS IN AS WELL...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG TO WORK WITH PER
00Z NAM. ALTHOUGH...THE 00Z GFS IS DRIER AND DECIDEDLY MORE
ANTICYCLONIC AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE WETTEST.

SHORT LIVED ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS THE 80S APPEAR IN
THE OFFING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD 20 C ON THURSDAY...AND
REACH OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 C ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAKES A RUN
TOWARD A 90 DEGREE DAY A REAL POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
WILL PROBABLY ALREADY BE ARRIVING...SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HINDER
MAXES. MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).









000
FXUS63 KMQT 010915
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR INL THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. A WEAK SHRTWV
FROM NE MN INTO NW WI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
OVER ERN MN INTO NW WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONGER SHRTWV WAS
LOCATED OVER SW MN INTO NW IA. WITH ONLY MODEST 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...ONLY A FEW TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION. THE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONGER 850 THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

TODAY...AS THE NW IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA WITH MODERATE
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH
0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SINCE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...MAINLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
QVECTOR DIV SPREADS INTO UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE EVENING WILL
END EARLY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ALSO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED LATE OVER THE SW CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 010915
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR INL THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. A WEAK SHRTWV
FROM NE MN INTO NW WI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
OVER ERN MN INTO NW WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONGER SHRTWV WAS
LOCATED OVER SW MN INTO NW IA. WITH ONLY MODEST 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...ONLY A FEW TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION. THE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONGER 850 THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

TODAY...AS THE NW IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA WITH MODERATE
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH
0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SINCE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...MAINLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
QVECTOR DIV SPREADS INTO UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE EVENING WILL
END EARLY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ALSO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED LATE OVER THE SW CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KDTX 010805
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
405 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SUBJECT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND SE
MICHIGAN. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY SURFACE BASED STORMS LIKELY INITIATING IN THE LEE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE/MCV REMNANTS INTERACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DURING PEAK HEATING. A SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS IS THEN LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH OUR AREA MID EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGLY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE
DISSIPATING TREND ADVERTISED IN MODEL DATA AND THE SCENARIO OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. THIS DISSIPATING
TREND IS HAPPENING SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ERODE
AND/OR GET CARRIED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THAT LEAVES JUST PATCHY MID CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS...AS A MINIMAL OBSTRUCTION TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
TO START THE DAY. IT THEN SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME MAX TEMPS OF
80-85 WILL BE REACHABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AROUND 70 CARRYING
0-1KM LAYER CAPE TOWARD 1500 J/KG. A SURFACE PARCEL AT 85/72
GENERATES SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AS A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THESE VALUES ARE PLENTY HIGH ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...WITH MOST OF THAT IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTER
EARLY ON WITH SPLITS AND MERGERS GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS CONVECTION MATURES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY LIMITED TO ONLY THE STRONGEST MESO ENHANCED UPDRAFTS DUE TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE EXCEEDING 300 J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM ALONG
WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND LCL BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000
FT. THESE ARE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR TORNADOGENESIS.

ROUND TWO OF STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY THE COLD FRONT WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA TOWARD LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BOTH DUE TO THE DOWNSIDE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRECEDING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENDS UP THE FOCUS
OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
POST FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH THE MODELS
SUGGEST WILL BE MINIMAL...INSTEAD FOCUSING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/MOISTURE
AXIS WILL HAVE CLEARED SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
A DRAMATIC DRYING TREND TAKING PLACE AS PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER ARE JUST ABOUT CUT IN HALF TO AROUND 1 INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKING OUT
OF EASTERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE
BACKED...SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH...AND CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...AS DAYTIME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SETS IN AS WELL...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG TO WORK WITH PER
00Z NAM. ALTHOUGH...THE 00Z GFS IS DRIER AND DECIDEDLY MORE
ANTICYCLONIC AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE WETTEST.

SHORT LIVED ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS THE 80S APPEAR IN
THE OFFING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD 20 C ON THURSDAY...AND
REACH OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 C ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAKES A RUN
TOWARD A 90 DEGREE DAY A REAL POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
WILL PROBABLY ALREADY BE ARRIVING...SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HINDER
MAXES. MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH LIGHT WINDS OF UNDER 5 KNOTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND PLENTY OF
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHES OF IFR STRATUS WILL MOST
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FOG AT TIMES. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ERODE BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THEN INCREASING BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. TIMING/COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PROB30 GROUP TO DENOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.

//DISCUSSION...

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 010805
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
405 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SUBJECT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND SE
MICHIGAN. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY SURFACE BASED STORMS LIKELY INITIATING IN THE LEE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE/MCV REMNANTS INTERACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DURING PEAK HEATING. A SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS IS THEN LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND FOLLOW THE AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH OUR AREA MID EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGLY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE
DISSIPATING TREND ADVERTISED IN MODEL DATA AND THE SCENARIO OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. THIS DISSIPATING
TREND IS HAPPENING SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ERODE
AND/OR GET CARRIED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THAT LEAVES JUST PATCHY MID CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS...AS A MINIMAL OBSTRUCTION TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
TO START THE DAY. IT THEN SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME MAX TEMPS OF
80-85 WILL BE REACHABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AROUND 70 CARRYING
0-1KM LAYER CAPE TOWARD 1500 J/KG. A SURFACE PARCEL AT 85/72
GENERATES SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AS A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THESE VALUES ARE PLENTY HIGH ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...WITH MOST OF THAT IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTER
EARLY ON WITH SPLITS AND MERGERS GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS CONVECTION MATURES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY LIMITED TO ONLY THE STRONGEST MESO ENHANCED UPDRAFTS DUE TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE EXCEEDING 300 J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM ALONG
WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND LCL BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000
FT. THESE ARE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR TORNADOGENESIS.

ROUND TWO OF STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY THE COLD FRONT WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA TOWARD LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BOTH DUE TO THE DOWNSIDE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRECEDING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENDS UP THE FOCUS
OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
POST FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH THE MODELS
SUGGEST WILL BE MINIMAL...INSTEAD FOCUSING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/MOISTURE
AXIS WILL HAVE CLEARED SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
A DRAMATIC DRYING TREND TAKING PLACE AS PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER ARE JUST ABOUT CUT IN HALF TO AROUND 1 INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKING OUT
OF EASTERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE
BACKED...SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH...AND CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...AS DAYTIME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SETS IN AS WELL...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG TO WORK WITH PER
00Z NAM. ALTHOUGH...THE 00Z GFS IS DRIER AND DECIDEDLY MORE
ANTICYCLONIC AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE WETTEST.

SHORT LIVED ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS THE 80S APPEAR IN
THE OFFING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD 20 C ON THURSDAY...AND
REACH OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 C ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAKES A RUN
TOWARD A 90 DEGREE DAY A REAL POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
WILL PROBABLY ALREADY BE ARRIVING...SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HINDER
MAXES. MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH LIGHT WINDS OF UNDER 5 KNOTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND PLENTY OF
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHES OF IFR STRATUS WILL MOST
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FOG AT TIMES. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ERODE BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THEN INCREASING BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. TIMING/COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PROB30 GROUP TO DENOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.

//DISCUSSION...

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KGRR 010730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS DETERMINING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FEEL THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY BY ANY
MEANS. THERE ARE FACTORS BOTH FOR AND AGAINST SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH GOING FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
THREAT.

IN TERMS OF THE PARAMETERS THAT ARE GOING FOR THIS EVENT...WE HAVE A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOLID WIND FIELDS...30-35 KNOT LLJ...40-55 KNOT MID LEVEL
JET RESULTING IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION. SURFACE DEW
POINT SHOULD SURGE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MOST PLACES THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOLID 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONGOING FROM 15Z
THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

THE QUESTION MARKS WITH THIS EVENT ARE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS
PIVOTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WELL AS THE AREA BEING
IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. HENCE...THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. INSTABILITY IS A QUESTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WILL BE TRYING TO PRESS IN
FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE EVENT MAY GET GOING
BEFORE PEAK HEATING. FEEL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT CAPE VALUES THOUGH ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

SHORT TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALL SHOW SOME ACTIVITY
SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EVENING (NOON THROUGH 800 PM). FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM STORMS
TODAY IN OUR AREA WILL BE STRONG WINDS GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS IN
PLACE. NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX. THE MODELS ALSO
SHOW SOMEWHAT OF LAKE SHADOW TO THE CONVECTION...BUT THIS MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO OUR LOCATION SOUTH OF THE BEST DYNAMICS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS THAT COULD IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS SW LOWER MI. THE FIRST ITEM IS FOG
POTENTIAL. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AND TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE CLOSE ALREADY. THE
BEST CHC FOR FOG AND SOME POSSIBLE STRATUS WILL BE ALONG AND SE OF
I-69 WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE PRESENT EARLIER AND WHERE THE
MOISTURE HAS HUNG IN THE MOST. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME NEAR KGRR AND
KAZO...BUT THE FURTHER WEST THE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AND LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL.

THE NEXT THING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TODAY. MOST DATA
INDICATES THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 0545Z WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOWARD 15Z OR SO. IT WILL INITIALLY FALL APART WITH LESS CHC OF
IMPACTS FROM IT TOWARD THE LAKESHORE. AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TOWARD THE EAST...WE EXPECT IT TO REINTENSIFY
INTO A LINE OF STORMS BY THE TIME IT REACHES U.S.-127 BY 19Z OR
SO. BEST CHC FOR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
IFR WOULD BE LIKELY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS CAN BE FINE TUNED
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES EAST...THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
WAVE TOWARD 00Z AND AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WE WILL BE KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP THIS
MORNING AS THE SW GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT. THE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD PEAK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THEN COMING DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SURGING TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THOUGH...SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
SWATHS AS OPPOSED TO BEING WIDESPREAD. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN
BANK...AND FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIVER SYSTEMS WITHOUT MUCH ISSUE.

TODAY/S ISSUE THOUGH WILL BE MONITORING THE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THAT SWEEP THROUGH WITH THE STORMS. THINKING THE MOTION WILL BE
QUICK ENOUGH (NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH)...TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN ISSUE
WITH FLASH FLOODING.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK WITH A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 010730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM THE MIDDAY
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ALL WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS DETERMINING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FEEL THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY BY ANY
MEANS. THERE ARE FACTORS BOTH FOR AND AGAINST SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH GOING FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
THREAT.

IN TERMS OF THE PARAMETERS THAT ARE GOING FOR THIS EVENT...WE HAVE A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOLID WIND FIELDS...30-35 KNOT LLJ...40-55 KNOT MID LEVEL
JET RESULTING IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION. SURFACE DEW
POINT SHOULD SURGE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MOST PLACES THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOLID 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONGOING FROM 15Z
THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

THE QUESTION MARKS WITH THIS EVENT ARE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS
PIVOTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WELL AS THE AREA BEING
IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. HENCE...THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. INSTABILITY IS A QUESTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WILL BE TRYING TO PRESS IN
FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE EVENT MAY GET GOING
BEFORE PEAK HEATING. FEEL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT CAPE VALUES THOUGH ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

SHORT TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALL SHOW SOME ACTIVITY
SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EVENING (NOON THROUGH 800 PM). FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM STORMS
TODAY IN OUR AREA WILL BE STRONG WINDS GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS IN
PLACE. NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX. THE MODELS ALSO
SHOW SOMEWHAT OF LAKE SHADOW TO THE CONVECTION...BUT THIS MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO OUR LOCATION SOUTH OF THE BEST DYNAMICS.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT FELT THE
THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE PCPN
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING IN.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET ON
THU. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICK ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A CHC TO WARM
TOWARD 90 WITH H850 TEMPS OF 20C ADVECTING IN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
SETTLED WITH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PCPN.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION BE POSSIBLE THEN CENTERED
AROUND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND ENCOUNTERING THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WE COULD HAVE SOME ASSISTANCE VIA THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR N/NE THAT WOULD SUPPLEMENT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM SAT THROUGH SUN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET...YET COOL. WE WILL SEE A CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTER IN
BEHIND THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH A DECENT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING
IT IN. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW AND A BIT OF A TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE FAR ERN FLANK OF A SFC RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS THAT COULD IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS SW LOWER MI. THE FIRST ITEM IS FOG
POTENTIAL. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AND TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE CLOSE ALREADY. THE
BEST CHC FOR FOG AND SOME POSSIBLE STRATUS WILL BE ALONG AND SE OF
I-69 WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE PRESENT EARLIER AND WHERE THE
MOISTURE HAS HUNG IN THE MOST. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME NEAR KGRR AND
KAZO...BUT THE FURTHER WEST THE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AND LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL.

THE NEXT THING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TODAY. MOST DATA
INDICATES THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 0545Z WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOWARD 15Z OR SO. IT WILL INITIALLY FALL APART WITH LESS CHC OF
IMPACTS FROM IT TOWARD THE LAKESHORE. AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TOWARD THE EAST...WE EXPECT IT TO REINTENSIFY
INTO A LINE OF STORMS BY THE TIME IT REACHES U.S.-127 BY 19Z OR
SO. BEST CHC FOR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
IFR WOULD BE LIKELY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS CAN BE FINE TUNED
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES EAST...THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
WAVE TOWARD 00Z AND AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WE WILL BE KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP THIS
MORNING AS THE SW GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT. THE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD PEAK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THEN COMING DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS TO START IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME AS
THE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SURGING TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THOUGH...SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
SWATHS AS OPPOSED TO BEING WIDESPREAD. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN
BANK...AND FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIVER SYSTEMS WITHOUT MUCH ISSUE.

TODAY/S ISSUE THOUGH WILL BE MONITORING THE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THAT SWEEP THROUGH WITH THE STORMS. THINKING THE MOTION WILL BE
QUICK ENOUGH (NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH)...TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN ISSUE
WITH FLASH FLOODING.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK WITH A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010722
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
322 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010722
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
322 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010711
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAINLY IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER ROBUST AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS
IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST LAKES...ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A BROADER
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT AS OF
06Z IS SNAKING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG THIS FEATURE...THOUGH MOST AREAS ALONG THE FRONT ARE RECEIVING
RAIN IN SOME FORM. HELPING THE CAUSE IS A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET POKING FROM CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WISCONSIN AND
HELPING MAINTAIN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF WHAT WAS ALREADY A LONG-LIVED
MCS FEATURE EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE BETTER LLJ CONVERGENCE
IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT IS HELPING
TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF MUCH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP IN OUR
DIRECTION AND QUELLING THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MCS
IS RUNNING SQUARELY INTO A TREMENDOUSLY DRIER AIRMASS...WITH A
NOTABLE POCKET OF VERY DRY 850-750MB DEW POINTS RESIDING OVER MUCH
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN (NOT TO MENTION
NORTHERN MICHIGAN).

OF COURSE WITH TODAY BEING THE BIG HOLIDAY AND UNOFFICIAL SENDOFF TO
SUMMER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS OUR
DRY FORECAST BEFORE 16Z/NOON SHOULD HOLD JUST FINE. ABOVE-MENTIONED
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS LIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LAKES. AS THAT OCCURS...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY GET GOING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN...PROBABLY SENDING SOME THICKER CIRRUS IN OUR DIRECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SURFACE HEATING AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MARCHING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY 18Z. GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO A CORE OF
H8 TEMPS NEARING 17C ALOFT...HIGHS COULD THEORETICALLY PUSH AS HIGH
AS THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER ON
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

ALL THE WHILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP ALOFT...WHILE
SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEP BACK THROUGH THE 60 TO PERHAPS NEAR
70...FUELING INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES UP TOWARD 1500+ J/KG. ADD THE
ARRIVAL OF A 55 KNOT MID LEVEL JET CORE FROM 18-00Z AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND PRE-FRONTAL THERMALLY-DRIVEN TROUGHING...AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY PROPAGATING AND/OR
REDEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT NOON ONWARD. DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THOUGH WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. INITIAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS FROM PRECIP LOADING...WHILE SHEAR AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL (WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
11-12KFT) LEND CREDENCE TO A LARGER HAIL POTENTIAL. GOING SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN ALL PRODUCTS AS THE SETUP CERTAINLY
LOOKS AS GOOD OF ONE WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER SEASON.

MAY SEE A TRAILING AXIS OF RAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...COURTESY OF ENHANCED
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WORKING SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A VERY
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE ONGOING UPPER MISS VALLEY MCS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THAT JET AXIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST AND OVERTAKES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER AS DRIER AIR AND WANING FORCING
ARRIVE BY SUNRISE. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY SEE SOME THICKER
STRATUS FIRE OFF IN A STILL QUITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BELOW 900MB (OFTEN THE CALLING CARD FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUMMER STRATUS - SEE YESTERDAY) YIELDS HOPE THINGS MAY
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...EYES ON THURSDAY NIGHT POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS...

IMPACTS: STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSAY NIGHT. EXACT DETAILS
TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF WIND IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TO RIDGE TO TROUGH EVOLUTION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATE PERIODS
ENDING IN A TREND TOWARD LONGER PERIOD RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH SUMMER TRYING NOT TO LOOK FOR THE EXIT DOOR TOWARD
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POSSIBLE ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF US WITH SOME LIKELY HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STILL GRAZING AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOME OF THE DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUD ARRIVING QUICKLY TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKISH LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL JETLET. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...BUT PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM AND A BIT OF ADDED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS
IN A HANDFUL OF MUCAPE (~400 J/KG) ARRIVING MORE SO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING. SFC TD`S LIKELY IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH BASED...ARE POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED A
SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH N THE MID-UPPER 70S. GONNA KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP FREE UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
DATA....ESPECIALLY TIMING. HEIGHTS RISE AT LEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DEPART RATHER QUICKLY WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT. SFC
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AROUND DAYBREAK AND EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF
COURSE IN QUESTION. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND EVENTUAL CHANCE
AT SOME STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GUSTY AND WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD MAKE A
RUN AT US AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE FOR THE FOLLOWING: LOTS OF WIND ALOFT...AND IF WE CAN
GENERATE THE INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...AND HEIGHT
FALLS THURSDAY EVENING...MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY GOOD STORM
POTENTIAL. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO...INSTABILITY STORM STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS ROLLING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S....COOLING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RIDGING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS PERIOD THOUGH DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE...OUTSIDE OF WHAT
SEEMS TO BE AN INSIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL SHALLOW SFC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY (MAY BE NORTH OF US IN CANADA). THE IDEA HERE IS TO BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR TO IFR FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS HELPED CLEAR OUT LOWER CLOUDS. THE
CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...WITH PLN/APN LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR. TVC/MBL WILL BE MVFR
AT TIMES.

LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF MN WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
MONDAY...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY
MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY VEER SW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS APPROACH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY...DELIVERING A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ALL THE WATERS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...STRONGEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON LAKE HURON
AND WHITEFISH BAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL CHANNEL UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 KNOTS INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE






000
FXUS63 KAPX 010711
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAINLY IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER ROBUST AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS
IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST LAKES...ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A BROADER
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT AS OF
06Z IS SNAKING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG THIS FEATURE...THOUGH MOST AREAS ALONG THE FRONT ARE RECEIVING
RAIN IN SOME FORM. HELPING THE CAUSE IS A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET POKING FROM CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WISCONSIN AND
HELPING MAINTAIN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF WHAT WAS ALREADY A LONG-LIVED
MCS FEATURE EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE BETTER LLJ CONVERGENCE
IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT IS HELPING
TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF MUCH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP IN OUR
DIRECTION AND QUELLING THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MCS
IS RUNNING SQUARELY INTO A TREMENDOUSLY DRIER AIRMASS...WITH A
NOTABLE POCKET OF VERY DRY 850-750MB DEW POINTS RESIDING OVER MUCH
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN (NOT TO MENTION
NORTHERN MICHIGAN).

OF COURSE WITH TODAY BEING THE BIG HOLIDAY AND UNOFFICIAL SENDOFF TO
SUMMER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS OUR
DRY FORECAST BEFORE 16Z/NOON SHOULD HOLD JUST FINE. ABOVE-MENTIONED
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS LIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LAKES. AS THAT OCCURS...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY GET GOING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN...PROBABLY SENDING SOME THICKER CIRRUS IN OUR DIRECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SURFACE HEATING AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MARCHING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY 18Z. GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO A CORE OF
H8 TEMPS NEARING 17C ALOFT...HIGHS COULD THEORETICALLY PUSH AS HIGH
AS THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER ON
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

ALL THE WHILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP ALOFT...WHILE
SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEP BACK THROUGH THE 60 TO PERHAPS NEAR
70...FUELING INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES UP TOWARD 1500+ J/KG. ADD THE
ARRIVAL OF A 55 KNOT MID LEVEL JET CORE FROM 18-00Z AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND PRE-FRONTAL THERMALLY-DRIVEN TROUGHING...AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY PROPAGATING AND/OR
REDEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT NOON ONWARD. DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THOUGH WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. INITIAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS FROM PRECIP LOADING...WHILE SHEAR AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL (WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
11-12KFT) LEND CREDENCE TO A LARGER HAIL POTENTIAL. GOING SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN ALL PRODUCTS AS THE SETUP CERTAINLY
LOOKS AS GOOD OF ONE WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER SEASON.

MAY SEE A TRAILING AXIS OF RAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...COURTESY OF ENHANCED
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WORKING SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A VERY
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE ONGOING UPPER MISS VALLEY MCS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THAT JET AXIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST AND OVERTAKES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER AS DRIER AIR AND WANING FORCING
ARRIVE BY SUNRISE. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY SEE SOME THICKER
STRATUS FIRE OFF IN A STILL QUITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BELOW 900MB (OFTEN THE CALLING CARD FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUMMER STRATUS - SEE YESTERDAY) YIELDS HOPE THINGS MAY
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...EYES ON THURSDAY NIGHT POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS...

IMPACTS: STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSAY NIGHT. EXACT DETAILS
TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF WIND IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TO RIDGE TO TROUGH EVOLUTION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATE PERIODS
ENDING IN A TREND TOWARD LONGER PERIOD RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH SUMMER TRYING NOT TO LOOK FOR THE EXIT DOOR TOWARD
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POSSIBLE ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF US WITH SOME LIKELY HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STILL GRAZING AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOME OF THE DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUD ARRIVING QUICKLY TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKISH LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL JETLET. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...BUT PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM AND A BIT OF ADDED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS
IN A HANDFUL OF MUCAPE (~400 J/KG) ARRIVING MORE SO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING. SFC TD`S LIKELY IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH BASED...ARE POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED A
SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH N THE MID-UPPER 70S. GONNA KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP FREE UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
DATA....ESPECIALLY TIMING. HEIGHTS RISE AT LEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DEPART RATHER QUICKLY WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT. SFC
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AROUND DAYBREAK AND EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF
COURSE IN QUESTION. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND EVENTUAL CHANCE
AT SOME STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GUSTY AND WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD MAKE A
RUN AT US AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE FOR THE FOLLOWING: LOTS OF WIND ALOFT...AND IF WE CAN
GENERATE THE INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...AND HEIGHT
FALLS THURSDAY EVENING...MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY GOOD STORM
POTENTIAL. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO...INSTABILITY STORM STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS ROLLING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S....COOLING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RIDGING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS PERIOD THOUGH DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE...OUTSIDE OF WHAT
SEEMS TO BE AN INSIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL SHALLOW SFC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY (MAY BE NORTH OF US IN CANADA). THE IDEA HERE IS TO BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR TO IFR FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS HELPED CLEAR OUT LOWER CLOUDS. THE
CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...WITH PLN/APN LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR. TVC/MBL WILL BE MVFR
AT TIMES.

LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF MN WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
MONDAY...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY
MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY VEER SW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS APPROACH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY...DELIVERING A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ALL THE WATERS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...STRONGEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON LAKE HURON
AND WHITEFISH BAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL CHANNEL UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 KNOTS INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 010549
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
149 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY INTO
THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON LABOR DAY
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY DRYING THE REGION OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. OVERALL THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS.

ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS THE DECAYING
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WELL
BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN MI...SO I AM THINKING THIS WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORTS CAPE OVER
1500 J/KG ON MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TOWARD 18Z AS THE
MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY IN WI ARRIVES IN NW LOWER. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRIGGER STORMS. THE SHEAR WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL A THREAT.
SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
HOWEVER THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING OVER THE EAST SEABOARD
BY MID WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 80S FOR HIGHS.  THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH MOVE IN AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT.  IF A LOW LEVEL JET COMES INTO PLAY WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE
GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN...CLOSER TO THE WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
THIS STRONG FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  H8 TEMPS
DROP TO +7 TO +10C AS COMPARED TO AROUND +19C AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS THAT COULD IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS SW LOWER MI. THE FIRST ITEM IS FOG
POTENTIAL. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AND TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE CLOSE ALREADY. THE
BEST CHC FOR FOG AND SOME POSSIBLE STRATUS WILL BE ALONG AND SE OF
I-69 WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE PRESENT EARLIER AND WHERE THE
MOISTURE HAS HUNG IN THE MOST. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME NEAR KGRR AND
KAZO...BUT THE FURTHER WEST THE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AND LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.

THE NEXT THING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TODAY. MOST DATA
INDICATES THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 0545Z WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOWARD 15Z OR SO. IT WILL INITIALLY FALL APART WITH LESS CHC OF
IMPACTS FROM IT TOWARD THE LAKESHORE. AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TOWARD THE EAST...WE EXPECT IT TO REINTENSIFY
INTO A LINE OF STORMS BY THE TIME IT REACHES U.S.-127 BY 19Z OR
SO. BEST CHC FOR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
IFR WOULD BE LIKELY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS CAN BE FINE TUNED
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES EAST...THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
WAVE TOWARD 00Z AND AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BEACH HAZARDS AND SCA ISSUED FOR MONDAY


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH PWAT VALUES SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 010549
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
149 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY INTO
THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON LABOR DAY
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY DRYING THE REGION OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. OVERALL THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS.

ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS THE DECAYING
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WELL
BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN MI...SO I AM THINKING THIS WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORTS CAPE OVER
1500 J/KG ON MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TOWARD 18Z AS THE
MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY IN WI ARRIVES IN NW LOWER. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRIGGER STORMS. THE SHEAR WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL A THREAT.
SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
HOWEVER THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING OVER THE EAST SEABOARD
BY MID WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 80S FOR HIGHS.  THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH MOVE IN AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT.  IF A LOW LEVEL JET COMES INTO PLAY WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE
GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN...CLOSER TO THE WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
THIS STRONG FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  H8 TEMPS
DROP TO +7 TO +10C AS COMPARED TO AROUND +19C AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS THAT COULD IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS SW LOWER MI. THE FIRST ITEM IS FOG
POTENTIAL. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AND TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE CLOSE ALREADY. THE
BEST CHC FOR FOG AND SOME POSSIBLE STRATUS WILL BE ALONG AND SE OF
I-69 WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE PRESENT EARLIER AND WHERE THE
MOISTURE HAS HUNG IN THE MOST. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME NEAR KGRR AND
KAZO...BUT THE FURTHER WEST THE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AND LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.

THE NEXT THING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TODAY. MOST DATA
INDICATES THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 0545Z WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOWARD 15Z OR SO. IT WILL INITIALLY FALL APART WITH LESS CHC OF
IMPACTS FROM IT TOWARD THE LAKESHORE. AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TOWARD THE EAST...WE EXPECT IT TO REINTENSIFY
INTO A LINE OF STORMS BY THE TIME IT REACHES U.S.-127 BY 19Z OR
SO. BEST CHC FOR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
IFR WOULD BE LIKELY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS CAN BE FINE TUNED
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES EAST...THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
WAVE TOWARD 00Z AND AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BEACH HAZARDS AND SCA ISSUED FOR MONDAY


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH PWAT VALUES SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 010549
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
149 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY INTO
THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON LABOR DAY
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY DRYING THE REGION OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. OVERALL THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS.

ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS THE DECAYING
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WELL
BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN MI...SO I AM THINKING THIS WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORTS CAPE OVER
1500 J/KG ON MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TOWARD 18Z AS THE
MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY IN WI ARRIVES IN NW LOWER. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRIGGER STORMS. THE SHEAR WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL A THREAT.
SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
HOWEVER THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING OVER THE EAST SEABOARD
BY MID WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 80S FOR HIGHS.  THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH MOVE IN AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT.  IF A LOW LEVEL JET COMES INTO PLAY WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE
GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN...CLOSER TO THE WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
THIS STRONG FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  H8 TEMPS
DROP TO +7 TO +10C AS COMPARED TO AROUND +19C AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS THAT COULD IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS SW LOWER MI. THE FIRST ITEM IS FOG
POTENTIAL. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AND TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE CLOSE ALREADY. THE
BEST CHC FOR FOG AND SOME POSSIBLE STRATUS WILL BE ALONG AND SE OF
I-69 WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE PRESENT EARLIER AND WHERE THE
MOISTURE HAS HUNG IN THE MOST. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME NEAR KGRR AND
KAZO...BUT THE FURTHER WEST THE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AND LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.

THE NEXT THING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TODAY. MOST DATA
INDICATES THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 0545Z WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOWARD 15Z OR SO. IT WILL INITIALLY FALL APART WITH LESS CHC OF
IMPACTS FROM IT TOWARD THE LAKESHORE. AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TOWARD THE EAST...WE EXPECT IT TO REINTENSIFY
INTO A LINE OF STORMS BY THE TIME IT REACHES U.S.-127 BY 19Z OR
SO. BEST CHC FOR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
IFR WOULD BE LIKELY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS CAN BE FINE TUNED
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES EAST...THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
WAVE TOWARD 00Z AND AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BEACH HAZARDS AND SCA ISSUED FOR MONDAY


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH PWAT VALUES SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 010549
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
149 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY INTO
THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON LABOR DAY
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY DRYING THE REGION OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. OVERALL THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS.

ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS THE DECAYING
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WELL
BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN MI...SO I AM THINKING THIS WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORTS CAPE OVER
1500 J/KG ON MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TOWARD 18Z AS THE
MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY IN WI ARRIVES IN NW LOWER. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRIGGER STORMS. THE SHEAR WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL A THREAT.
SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
HOWEVER THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING OVER THE EAST SEABOARD
BY MID WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 80S FOR HIGHS.  THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH MOVE IN AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT.  IF A LOW LEVEL JET COMES INTO PLAY WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE
GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN...CLOSER TO THE WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
THIS STRONG FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  H8 TEMPS
DROP TO +7 TO +10C AS COMPARED TO AROUND +19C AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS THAT COULD IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS SW LOWER MI. THE FIRST ITEM IS FOG
POTENTIAL. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AND TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE CLOSE ALREADY. THE
BEST CHC FOR FOG AND SOME POSSIBLE STRATUS WILL BE ALONG AND SE OF
I-69 WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE PRESENT EARLIER AND WHERE THE
MOISTURE HAS HUNG IN THE MOST. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME NEAR KGRR AND
KAZO...BUT THE FURTHER WEST THE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AND LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.

THE NEXT THING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TODAY. MOST DATA
INDICATES THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 0545Z WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOWARD 15Z OR SO. IT WILL INITIALLY FALL APART WITH LESS CHC OF
IMPACTS FROM IT TOWARD THE LAKESHORE. AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TOWARD THE EAST...WE EXPECT IT TO REINTENSIFY
INTO A LINE OF STORMS BY THE TIME IT REACHES U.S.-127 BY 19Z OR
SO. BEST CHC FOR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
IFR WOULD BE LIKELY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS CAN BE FINE TUNED
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES EAST...THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
WAVE TOWARD 00Z AND AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BEACH HAZARDS AND SCA ISSUED FOR MONDAY


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH PWAT VALUES SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 010532
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 010532
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KDTX 010400
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

WITH LIGHT WINDS OF UNDER 5 KNOTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND PLENTY OF
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHES OF IFR STRATUS WILL MOST
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FOG AT TIMES. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ERODE BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THEN INCREASING BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. TIMING/COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PROB30 GROUP TO DENOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.

//DISCUSSION...

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE LATE MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER WAVE HAS MOVED FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO GEORGIAN BAY AND
EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING WERE INDICATIVE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING DOWN INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN (MORE LOWER CLOUDS...WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT) EARLY TODAY...BUT THIS HAS SINCE WASHED OUT AS
EXPECTED...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY NOT REALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF ANY
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN NOW. TRENDS IN
SATELLITE AND RADAR SUPPORT MODEL IDEA OF THE THETA-E RIDGE TRAILING
YESTERDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BREAKING/ERODING THROUGH THE
DAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MIXES
DOWN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE
TODAY SOUTH OF I-69 BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERY
MODEL RANGING FROM HI-RES TO GLOBAL CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED
CONVECTION FIRING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM
SOUNDINGS WERE A LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH THEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE
CAP ON THE KDTX SOUNDING AT 12Z THIS MORNING. WHILE SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE FROM I-69
SOUTH...SUSPECT THE MID-LEVEL CAP IS A LITTLE MORE HEALTHY THAT
MODELS SUGGEST BASED ON VISUAL AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THERE WAS
HOWEVER A STORM THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER JUST BEFORE 3 PM...AND THIS DOES SUGGEST SOME
INSTABILITY COULD BE TAPPED INTO...AND SUPPORTS LEAVING SOME LOW
MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST.

DIURNALLY ENHANCED CU FIELD WILL ERODE OVERNIGHT AS HEATING CEASES
AND SUBSIDENCE FROM SHORTWAVE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. NEARLY
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
HUMID HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING WELL IN THE 60S. EXPECT TO
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

AFTER A QUIET START TO LABOR DAY...THINGS LOOK TO TAKE A TURN FOR
THE WORSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. THE DYNAMICS CERTAINLY SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
EVENT WITH A 120 KNOT 250 MB JET STREAM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING
THIS PERIOD...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN EMERGING OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT 850 MB AN IMPRESSIVE 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GETTING INTO
THE MID 80S...SB CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

DESPITE THE GOOD DYNAMICS...IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THERE
ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON LABOR DAY.
MAINLY THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL DURING MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM HOSTILE...THEREFORE EVEN IF WE ARE
UNABLE TO GENERATE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ON OUR OWN...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TO TRACK THROUGH WHICH WOULD BE MOVING
INTO THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE INHERITED LIKELY POPS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE CONCERNS. SEVERE WEATHER WISE
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE LENDS ITSELF TO LINE SEGMENTS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS OF 13-14K FT
DO NOT LEND THEMSELVES TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL. THE UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS SOLID BASED ON THIS
EVIDENCE. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
WITH A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE AND LONG SKINNY CAPES. THIS MAY CAUSE
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
TRACK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY...TAKING
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS MID LEVEL RIDGING USHERS IN A QUIET
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...A DYNAMICALLY
EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL US. AN
OPEN 500 MB WAVE AND STRONG VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
COUNTRY AND HELP STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARM FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ROLLS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY.

MARINE...

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LABOR DAY WILL THEN START OUT PLEASANT BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME
STORMY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 010400
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...

WITH LIGHT WINDS OF UNDER 5 KNOTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND PLENTY OF
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHES OF IFR STRATUS WILL MOST
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FOG AT TIMES. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ERODE BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THEN INCREASING BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. TIMING/COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PROB30 GROUP TO DENOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.

//DISCUSSION...

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE LATE MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER WAVE HAS MOVED FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO GEORGIAN BAY AND
EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING WERE INDICATIVE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING DOWN INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN (MORE LOWER CLOUDS...WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT) EARLY TODAY...BUT THIS HAS SINCE WASHED OUT AS
EXPECTED...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY NOT REALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF ANY
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN NOW. TRENDS IN
SATELLITE AND RADAR SUPPORT MODEL IDEA OF THE THETA-E RIDGE TRAILING
YESTERDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BREAKING/ERODING THROUGH THE
DAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MIXES
DOWN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE
TODAY SOUTH OF I-69 BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERY
MODEL RANGING FROM HI-RES TO GLOBAL CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED
CONVECTION FIRING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM
SOUNDINGS WERE A LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH THEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE
CAP ON THE KDTX SOUNDING AT 12Z THIS MORNING. WHILE SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE FROM I-69
SOUTH...SUSPECT THE MID-LEVEL CAP IS A LITTLE MORE HEALTHY THAT
MODELS SUGGEST BASED ON VISUAL AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THERE WAS
HOWEVER A STORM THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER JUST BEFORE 3 PM...AND THIS DOES SUGGEST SOME
INSTABILITY COULD BE TAPPED INTO...AND SUPPORTS LEAVING SOME LOW
MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST.

DIURNALLY ENHANCED CU FIELD WILL ERODE OVERNIGHT AS HEATING CEASES
AND SUBSIDENCE FROM SHORTWAVE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. NEARLY
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
HUMID HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING WELL IN THE 60S. EXPECT TO
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

AFTER A QUIET START TO LABOR DAY...THINGS LOOK TO TAKE A TURN FOR
THE WORSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. THE DYNAMICS CERTAINLY SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
EVENT WITH A 120 KNOT 250 MB JET STREAM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING
THIS PERIOD...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN EMERGING OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT 850 MB AN IMPRESSIVE 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GETTING INTO
THE MID 80S...SB CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

DESPITE THE GOOD DYNAMICS...IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THERE
ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON LABOR DAY.
MAINLY THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL DURING MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM HOSTILE...THEREFORE EVEN IF WE ARE
UNABLE TO GENERATE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ON OUR OWN...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TO TRACK THROUGH WHICH WOULD BE MOVING
INTO THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE INHERITED LIKELY POPS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE CONCERNS. SEVERE WEATHER WISE
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE LENDS ITSELF TO LINE SEGMENTS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS OF 13-14K FT
DO NOT LEND THEMSELVES TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL. THE UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS SOLID BASED ON THIS
EVIDENCE. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
WITH A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE AND LONG SKINNY CAPES. THIS MAY CAUSE
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
TRACK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY...TAKING
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS MID LEVEL RIDGING USHERS IN A QUIET
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...A DYNAMICALLY
EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL US. AN
OPEN 500 MB WAVE AND STRONG VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
COUNTRY AND HELP STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARM FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ROLLS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY.

MARINE...

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LABOR DAY WILL THEN START OUT PLEASANT BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME
STORMY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KAPX 010359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR
LABOR DAY...ALONG WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FEW CHANGES NEEDED. A BIT OF CU LINGERS FROM HTL TO GLADWIN...
OTHERWISE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. KEEPING ON EYE ON STRATUS DECK OVER
CENTRAL LAKE MI...W OF BIG AND LITTLE SABLE PTS. MAY BE A WINDOW
FOR THAT TO GET DRAGGED BACK INTO MBL/FRANKFORT...THOUGH ONLY JUST
AHEAD OF BROADER SCALE MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM DEEP
CONVECTION. WILL BE HITTING FOG COVERAGE A LITTLE HARDER...GROUND
FOG ALREADY FORMING IN SPOTS. TEMPS LOOK FINE FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT...

TIGHT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING EAST OUT OF NRN LAKE HURON THIS
AFTERNOON. STRUNG OUT SFC TROUGH STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS
NRN LAKE HURON AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT HAS BEEN RELAXING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL ABUNDANT STRATUS BACK ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING/MIXING INTO A STCU DECK...
ALTHOUGH THAT PROCESS IS FINALLY ACCELERATING THANKS TO LATE
AUGUST SUNSHINE...JUST IN TIME FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET. UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET CORE PUNCHING INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EROSION/MIXING OF STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MUCH OF THE REMAINING STCU FADES THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS...SUSPECT THAT SOME COMPONENT OF STATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE NRN/NE PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG DECAYING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THUS HAVE STRETCHED
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE
CWA. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE INTO THE S/SW AND
SHOULD FINALLY KICK REMAINING STRATUS OUT OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
JUST IN TIME FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE
OF TOMORROWS SYSTEM.

STILL A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND DEWPOINTS
STILL AROUND 60F. BUT WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS/LIMITED MIXING AND
LIGHT WINDS...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD BET ALTHOUGH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND ERODE FOG
FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

A FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
COMING DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SURFACE FRONTS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF GOOD
CHANCES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE TYPICAL "NORMALS" THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
OFF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THEN POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
WIND FIELDS ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40 TO 50 KNOTS).
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
EASTERN UPPER TO THE MIDDLE 80S NORTHEAST LOWER) PUSHES MODEL ML
CAPES TO UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. SO THERE REMAINS
DECENT POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

MONDAY OVERNIGHT...FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH LOW CLOUDS (STRATUS)
LIKE TODAY (SUNDAY). MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO START WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY SLOWLY DECREASE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN
SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (RESULTING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES) FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AS HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE 80S
WITH MORE CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING
FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR TO IFR FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS HELPED CLEAR OUT LOWER CLOUDS. THE
CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...WITH PLN/APN LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR. TVC/MBL WILL BE MVFR
AT TIMES.

LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF MN WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
MONDAY...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY
MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY VEER SW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH QUITE A
BIT OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME MARINE FOG WILL IMPACT THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTHWEST LABOR DAY...INCREASING TO GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE AND LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LABOR DAY. WILL HOIST THOSE ADVISORIES NOW TO GIVE SOME LEAD
TIME TO POTENTIAL BOATERS. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY...BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THOSE POSSIBILITIES.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...LATER MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 010359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR
LABOR DAY...ALONG WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FEW CHANGES NEEDED. A BIT OF CU LINGERS FROM HTL TO GLADWIN...
OTHERWISE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. KEEPING ON EYE ON STRATUS DECK OVER
CENTRAL LAKE MI...W OF BIG AND LITTLE SABLE PTS. MAY BE A WINDOW
FOR THAT TO GET DRAGGED BACK INTO MBL/FRANKFORT...THOUGH ONLY JUST
AHEAD OF BROADER SCALE MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM DEEP
CONVECTION. WILL BE HITTING FOG COVERAGE A LITTLE HARDER...GROUND
FOG ALREADY FORMING IN SPOTS. TEMPS LOOK FINE FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT...

TIGHT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING EAST OUT OF NRN LAKE HURON THIS
AFTERNOON. STRUNG OUT SFC TROUGH STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS
NRN LAKE HURON AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT HAS BEEN RELAXING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL ABUNDANT STRATUS BACK ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING/MIXING INTO A STCU DECK...
ALTHOUGH THAT PROCESS IS FINALLY ACCELERATING THANKS TO LATE
AUGUST SUNSHINE...JUST IN TIME FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET. UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET CORE PUNCHING INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EROSION/MIXING OF STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MUCH OF THE REMAINING STCU FADES THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS...SUSPECT THAT SOME COMPONENT OF STATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE NRN/NE PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG DECAYING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THUS HAVE STRETCHED
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE
CWA. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE INTO THE S/SW AND
SHOULD FINALLY KICK REMAINING STRATUS OUT OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
JUST IN TIME FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE
OF TOMORROWS SYSTEM.

STILL A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND DEWPOINTS
STILL AROUND 60F. BUT WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS/LIMITED MIXING AND
LIGHT WINDS...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD BET ALTHOUGH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND ERODE FOG
FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

A FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
COMING DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SURFACE FRONTS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF GOOD
CHANCES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE TYPICAL "NORMALS" THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
OFF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THEN POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
WIND FIELDS ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40 TO 50 KNOTS).
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
EASTERN UPPER TO THE MIDDLE 80S NORTHEAST LOWER) PUSHES MODEL ML
CAPES TO UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. SO THERE REMAINS
DECENT POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

MONDAY OVERNIGHT...FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH LOW CLOUDS (STRATUS)
LIKE TODAY (SUNDAY). MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO START WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY SLOWLY DECREASE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN
SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (RESULTING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES) FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AS HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE 80S
WITH MORE CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING
FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR TO IFR FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS HELPED CLEAR OUT LOWER CLOUDS. THE
CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...WITH PLN/APN LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR. TVC/MBL WILL BE MVFR
AT TIMES.

LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF MN WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
MONDAY...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY
MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY VEER SW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH QUITE A
BIT OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME MARINE FOG WILL IMPACT THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTHWEST LABOR DAY...INCREASING TO GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE AND LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LABOR DAY. WILL HOIST THOSE ADVISORIES NOW TO GIVE SOME LEAD
TIME TO POTENTIAL BOATERS. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY...BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THOSE POSSIBILITIES.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...LATER MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 010141
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
941 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR
LABOR DAY...ALONG WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FEW CHANGES NEEDED. A BIT OF CU LINGERS FROM HTL TO GLADWIN...
OTHERWISE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. KEEPING ON EYE ON STRATUS DECK OVER
CENTRAL LAKE MI...W OF BIG AND LITTLE SABLE PTS.MAY FOR WINDOW FOR
THAT TO GET DRAGGED BACK INTO MBL/FRANKFORT...THOUGH ONLY JUST
AHEAD OF BROADER SCALE MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM DEEP
CONVECTION. WILL BE HITTING FOG COVERAGE A LITTLE HARDER...GROUND
FOG ALREADY FORMING IN SPOTS. TEMPS LOOK FINE FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT...

TIGHT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING EAST OUT OF NRN LAKE HURON THIS
AFTERNOON. STRUNG OUT SFC TROUGH STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS
NRN LAKE HURON AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT HAS BEEN RELAXING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL ABUNDANT STRATUS BACK ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING/MIXING INTO A STCU DECK...
ALTHOUGH THAT PROCESS IS FINALLY ACCELERATING THANKS TO LATE
AUGUST SUNSHINE...JUST IN TIME FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET. UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET CORE PUNCHING INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EROSION/MIXING OF STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MUCH OF THE REMAINING STCU FADES THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS...SUSPECT THAT SOME COMPONENT OF STATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE NRN/NE PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG DECAYING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THUS HAVE STRETCHED
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE
CWA. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE INTO THE S/SW AND
SHOULD FINALLY KICK REMAINING STRATUS OUT OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
JUST IN TIME FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE
OF TOMORROWS SYSTEM.

STILL A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND DEWPOINTS
STILL AROUND 60F. BUT WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS/LIMITED MIXING AND
LIGHT WINDS...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD BET ALTHOUGH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND ERODE FOG
FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

A FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
COMING DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SURFACE FRONTS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF GOOD
CHANCES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE TYPICAL "NORMALS" THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
OFF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THEN POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
WIND FIELDS ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40 TO 50 KNOTS).
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
EASTERN UPPER TO THE MIDDLE 80S NORTHEAST LOWER) PUSHES MODEL ML
CAPES TO UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. SO THERE REMAINS
DECENT POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

MONDAY OVERNIGHT...FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH LOW CLOUDS (STRATUS)
LIKE TODAY (SUNDAY). MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO START WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY SLOWLY DECREASE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN
SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (RESULTING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES) FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AS HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE 80S
WITH MORE CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING
FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR TO IFR FOG TONIGHT. TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS FINALLY HELPED CLEAR OUT THE LOW
CIGS THAT LASTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WITH PLN/APN LOWERING TO
IFR. TVC/MBL WILL BE MVFR AT TIMES...THOUGH MBL COULD ALSO SEE
SOME STRATUS INTRUDE FROM LAKE MI.

LOW PRESSURE IN SE MANITOBA WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
MONDAY...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY
MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY VEER SW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH QUITE A
BIT OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME MARINE FOG WILL IMPACT THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTHWEST LABOR DAY...INCREASING TO GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE AND LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LABOR DAY. WILL HOIST THOSE ADVISORIES NOW TO GIVE SOME LEAD
TIME TO POTENTIAL BOATERS. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY...BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THOSE POSSIBILITIES.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...LATER MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 010141
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
941 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR
LABOR DAY...ALONG WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FEW CHANGES NEEDED. A BIT OF CU LINGERS FROM HTL TO GLADWIN...
OTHERWISE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. KEEPING ON EYE ON STRATUS DECK OVER
CENTRAL LAKE MI...W OF BIG AND LITTLE SABLE PTS.MAY FOR WINDOW FOR
THAT TO GET DRAGGED BACK INTO MBL/FRANKFORT...THOUGH ONLY JUST
AHEAD OF BROADER SCALE MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM DEEP
CONVECTION. WILL BE HITTING FOG COVERAGE A LITTLE HARDER...GROUND
FOG ALREADY FORMING IN SPOTS. TEMPS LOOK FINE FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT...

TIGHT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING EAST OUT OF NRN LAKE HURON THIS
AFTERNOON. STRUNG OUT SFC TROUGH STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS
NRN LAKE HURON AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT HAS BEEN RELAXING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL ABUNDANT STRATUS BACK ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING/MIXING INTO A STCU DECK...
ALTHOUGH THAT PROCESS IS FINALLY ACCELERATING THANKS TO LATE
AUGUST SUNSHINE...JUST IN TIME FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET. UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET CORE PUNCHING INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EROSION/MIXING OF STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MUCH OF THE REMAINING STCU FADES THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS...SUSPECT THAT SOME COMPONENT OF STATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE NRN/NE PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG DECAYING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THUS HAVE STRETCHED
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE
CWA. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE INTO THE S/SW AND
SHOULD FINALLY KICK REMAINING STRATUS OUT OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
JUST IN TIME FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE
OF TOMORROWS SYSTEM.

STILL A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND DEWPOINTS
STILL AROUND 60F. BUT WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS/LIMITED MIXING AND
LIGHT WINDS...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD BET ALTHOUGH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND ERODE FOG
FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

A FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
COMING DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SURFACE FRONTS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF GOOD
CHANCES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE TYPICAL "NORMALS" THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
OFF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THEN POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
WIND FIELDS ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40 TO 50 KNOTS).
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
EASTERN UPPER TO THE MIDDLE 80S NORTHEAST LOWER) PUSHES MODEL ML
CAPES TO UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. SO THERE REMAINS
DECENT POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

MONDAY OVERNIGHT...FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH LOW CLOUDS (STRATUS)
LIKE TODAY (SUNDAY). MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO START WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY SLOWLY DECREASE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN
SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (RESULTING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES) FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AS HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE 80S
WITH MORE CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING
FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR TO IFR FOG TONIGHT. TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS FINALLY HELPED CLEAR OUT THE LOW
CIGS THAT LASTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WITH PLN/APN LOWERING TO
IFR. TVC/MBL WILL BE MVFR AT TIMES...THOUGH MBL COULD ALSO SEE
SOME STRATUS INTRUDE FROM LAKE MI.

LOW PRESSURE IN SE MANITOBA WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
MONDAY...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY
MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY VEER SW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH QUITE A
BIT OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME MARINE FOG WILL IMPACT THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTHWEST LABOR DAY...INCREASING TO GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE AND LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LABOR DAY. WILL HOIST THOSE ADVISORIES NOW TO GIVE SOME LEAD
TIME TO POTENTIAL BOATERS. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY...BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THOSE POSSIBILITIES.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...LATER MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 312331
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
731 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR
LABOR DAY...ALONG WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT...

TIGHT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING EAST OUT OF NRN LAKE HURON THIS
AFTERNOON. STRUNG OUT SFC TROUGH STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS
NRN LAKE HURON AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT HAS BEEN RELAXING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL ABUNDANT STRATUS BACK ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING/MIXING INTO A STCU DECK...
ALTHOUGH THAT PROCESS IS FINALLY ACCELERATING THANKS TO LATE
AUGUST SUNSHINE...JUST IN TIME FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET. UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET CORE PUNCHING INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EROSION/MIXING OF STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MUCH OF THE REMAINING STCU FADES THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS...SUSPECT THAT SOME COMPONENT OF STATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE NRN/NE PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG DECAYING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THUS HAVE STRETCHED
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE
CWA. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE INTO THE S/SW AND
SHOULD FINALLY KICK REMAINING STRATUS OUT OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
JUST IN TIME FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE
OF TOMORROWS SYSTEM.

STILL A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND DEWPOINTS
STILL AROUND 60F. BUT WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS/LIMITED MIXING AND
LIGHT WINDS...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD BET ALTHOUGH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND ERODE FOG
FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

A FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
COMING DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SURFACE FRONTS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF GOOD
CHANCES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE TYPICAL "NORMALS" THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
OFF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THEN POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
WIND FIELDS ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40 TO 50 KNOTS).
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
EASTERN UPPER TO THE MIDDLE 80S NORTHEAST LOWER) PUSHES MODEL ML
CAPES TO UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. SO THERE REMAINS
DECENT POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

MONDAY OVERNIGHT...FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH LOW CLOUDS (STRATUS)
LIKE TODAY (SUNDAY). MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO START WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY SLOWLY DECREASE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN
SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (RESULTING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES) FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AS HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE 80S
WITH MORE CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING
FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR TO IFR FOG TONIGHT. TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS FINALLY HELPED CLEAR OUT THE LOW
CIGS THAT LASTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WITH PLN/APN LOWERING TO
IFR. TVC/MBL WILL BE MVFR AT TIMES...THOUGH MBL COULD ALSO SEE
SOME STRATUS INTRUDE FROM LAKE MI.

LOW PRESSURE IN SE MANITOBA WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
MONDAY...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY
MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY VEER SW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH QUITE A
BIT OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME MARINE FOG WILL IMPACT THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTHWEST LABOR DAY...INCREASING TO GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE AND LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LABOR DAY. WILL HOIST THOSE ADVISORIES NOW TO GIVE SOME LEAD
TIME TO POTENTIAL BOATERS. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY...BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THOSE POSSIBILITIES.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...LATER MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KMQT 312327
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CMX/IWD...WHILE THERE COULD BE A -SHRA AT CMX AND ESPECIALLY IWD
THIS EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SW LLJ THAT WL CAUSE SOME
LLWS AT BOTH SITES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THESE
LOCATIONS. DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON MON...THE ARRIVAL OF EVEN
MOISTER AIR AND A DISTURBANCE FM THE SW WL BRING MORE NMRS...
HEAVIER SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS A WAVE OF LO PRES RIDES NEWD ALONG A SLOWLY APRCHG COLD FNT...
PERSISTENT HEAVIER SHRA WL CAUSE A DETERIORATION TO IFR WX. A WSHFT
TO THE W FOLLOWING THE FROPA/LO PRES PASSAGE WL BRING ABOUT AN END
TO THE SHRA AND SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBY ON MON AFTN. WITH A
LATER FROPA AND MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE W COMPONENT...THIS IMPROVEMENT WL
BE SLOWER AT CMX.

SAW...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SC MAY BREAK UP AT TIMES THIS EVNG...MVFR
CIGS SHOULD PREDOMINATE. IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING AND THE
FVRBL S WIND TNGT...EXPECT LOWER CLDS/IFR CIGS BY LATE EVNG. LLWS WL
ALSO DVLP UNDER STRENGTHENING SW LLJ. EXPECT SOME HEAVIER SHRA TO
DVLP ON MON WITH CLOSER APRCH OF SFC COLD FNT AND MAINTAIN IFR WX
UNTIL THE COLD FNT SWEEPS TO THE E LATER IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS WL
IMPROVE LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD WITH A WSHFT TO THE W FOLLOWING THE
FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KDTX 312304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.AVIATION...

WHILE A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND A NUMBER
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM RECENT ISOLATED CONVECTION...THERE WILL
BE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSRAS LATE MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION FADES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY IFR/LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VSBYS IN
THE 2-4SM BR RANGE. WHATEVER FOG DOES FORMS WILL THEN ERODE IN THE
EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS.


//DISCUSSION...

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN A THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER WAVE HAS MOVED FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO GEORGIAN BAY AND
EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING WERE INDICATIVE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING DOWN INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN (MORE LOWER CLOUDS...WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT) EARLY TODAY...BUT THIS HAS SINCE WASHED OUT AS
EXPECTED...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY NOT REALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF ANY
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN NOW. TRENDS IN
SATELLITE AND RADAR SUPPORT MODEL IDEA OF THE THETA-E RIDGE TRAILING
YESTERDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BREAKING/ERODING THROUGH THE
DAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MIXES
DOWN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE
TODAY SOUTH OF I-69 BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERY
MODEL RANGING FROM HI-RES TO GLOBAL CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED
CONVECTION FIRING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM
SOUNDINGS WERE A LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH THEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE
CAP ON THE KDTX SOUNDING AT 12Z THIS MORNING. WHILE SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE FROM I-69
SOUTH...SUSPECT THE MID-LEVEL CAP IS A LITTLE MORE HEALTHY THAT
MODELS SUGGEST BASED ON VISUAL AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THERE WAS
HOWEVER A STORM THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER JUST BEFORE 3 PM...AND THIS DOES SUGGEST SOME
INSTABILITY COULD BE TAPPED INTO...AND SUPPORTS LEAVING SOME LOW
MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST.

DIURNALLY ENHANCED CU FIELD WILL ERODE OVERNIGHT AS HEATING CEASES
AND SUBSIDENCE FROM SHORTWAVE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. NEARLY
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
HUMID HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING WELL IN THE 60S. EXPECT TO
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

AFTER A QUIET START TO LABOR DAY...THINGS LOOK TO TAKE A TURN FOR
THE WORSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. THE DYNAMICS CERTAINLY SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
EVENT WITH A 120 KNOT 250 MB JET STREAM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING
THIS PERIOD...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN EMERGING OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT 850 MB AN IMPRESSIVE 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GETTING INTO
THE MID 80S...SB CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

DESPITE THE GOOD DYNAMICS...IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THERE
ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON LABOR DAY.
MAINLY THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL DURING MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM HOSTILE...THEREFORE EVEN IF WE ARE
UNABLE TO GENERATE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ON OUR OWN...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TO TRACK THROUGH WHICH WOULD BE MOVING
INTO THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE INHERITED LIKELY POPS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE CONCERNS. SEVERE WEATHER WISE
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE LENDS ITSELF TO LINE SEGMENTS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS OF 13-14K FT
DO NOT LEND THEMSELVES TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL. THE UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS SOLID BASED ON THIS
EVIDENCE. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
WITH A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE AND LONG SKINNY CAPES. THIS MAY CAUSE
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
TRACK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY...TAKING
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS MID LEVEL RIDGING USHERS IN A QUIET
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...A DYNAMICALLY
EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL US. AN
OPEN 500 MB WAVE AND STRONG VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
COUNTRY AND HELP STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARM FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ROLLS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY.

MARINE...

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LABOR DAY WILL THEN START OUT PLEASANT BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME
STORMY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 312304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.AVIATION...

WHILE A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND A NUMBER
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM RECENT ISOLATED CONVECTION...THERE WILL
BE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSRAS LATE MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION FADES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY IFR/LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VSBYS IN
THE 2-4SM BR RANGE. WHATEVER FOG DOES FORMS WILL THEN ERODE IN THE
EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS.


//DISCUSSION...

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN A THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER WAVE HAS MOVED FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO GEORGIAN BAY AND
EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING WERE INDICATIVE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING DOWN INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN (MORE LOWER CLOUDS...WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT) EARLY TODAY...BUT THIS HAS SINCE WASHED OUT AS
EXPECTED...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY NOT REALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF ANY
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN NOW. TRENDS IN
SATELLITE AND RADAR SUPPORT MODEL IDEA OF THE THETA-E RIDGE TRAILING
YESTERDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BREAKING/ERODING THROUGH THE
DAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MIXES
DOWN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE
TODAY SOUTH OF I-69 BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERY
MODEL RANGING FROM HI-RES TO GLOBAL CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED
CONVECTION FIRING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM
SOUNDINGS WERE A LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH THEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE
CAP ON THE KDTX SOUNDING AT 12Z THIS MORNING. WHILE SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE FROM I-69
SOUTH...SUSPECT THE MID-LEVEL CAP IS A LITTLE MORE HEALTHY THAT
MODELS SUGGEST BASED ON VISUAL AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THERE WAS
HOWEVER A STORM THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER JUST BEFORE 3 PM...AND THIS DOES SUGGEST SOME
INSTABILITY COULD BE TAPPED INTO...AND SUPPORTS LEAVING SOME LOW
MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST.

DIURNALLY ENHANCED CU FIELD WILL ERODE OVERNIGHT AS HEATING CEASES
AND SUBSIDENCE FROM SHORTWAVE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. NEARLY
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
HUMID HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING WELL IN THE 60S. EXPECT TO
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

AFTER A QUIET START TO LABOR DAY...THINGS LOOK TO TAKE A TURN FOR
THE WORSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. THE DYNAMICS CERTAINLY SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
EVENT WITH A 120 KNOT 250 MB JET STREAM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING
THIS PERIOD...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN EMERGING OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT 850 MB AN IMPRESSIVE 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GETTING INTO
THE MID 80S...SB CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

DESPITE THE GOOD DYNAMICS...IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THERE
ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON LABOR DAY.
MAINLY THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL DURING MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM HOSTILE...THEREFORE EVEN IF WE ARE
UNABLE TO GENERATE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ON OUR OWN...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TO TRACK THROUGH WHICH WOULD BE MOVING
INTO THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE INHERITED LIKELY POPS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE CONCERNS. SEVERE WEATHER WISE
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE LENDS ITSELF TO LINE SEGMENTS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS OF 13-14K FT
DO NOT LEND THEMSELVES TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL. THE UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS SOLID BASED ON THIS
EVIDENCE. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
WITH A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE AND LONG SKINNY CAPES. THIS MAY CAUSE
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
TRACK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY...TAKING
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS MID LEVEL RIDGING USHERS IN A QUIET
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...A DYNAMICALLY
EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL US. AN
OPEN 500 MB WAVE AND STRONG VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
COUNTRY AND HELP STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARM FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ROLLS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY.

MARINE...

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LABOR DAY WILL THEN START OUT PLEASANT BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME
STORMY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KGRR 312242
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
645 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY INTO
THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON LABOR DAY
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY DRYING THE REGION OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. OVERALL THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS.

ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS THE DECAYING
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WELL
BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN MI...SO I AM THINKING THIS WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORTS CAPE OVER
1500 J/KG ON MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TOWARD 18Z AS THE
MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY IN WI ARRIVES IN NW LOWER. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRIGGER STORMS. THE SHEAR WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL A THREAT.
SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
HOWEVER THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING OVER THE EAST SEABOARD
BY MID WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 80S FOR HIGHS.  THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH MOVE IN AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT.  IF A LOW LEVEL JET COMES INTO PLAY WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE
GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN...CLOSER TO THE WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
THIS STRONG FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  H8 TEMPS
DROP TO +7 TO +10C AS COMPARED TO AROUND +19C AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST TERMINALS (KLAN AND
PERHAPS KBTL/KJXN) DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR MONDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

BY LATE MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BEACH HAZARDS AND SCA ISSUED FOR MONDAY

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH PWAT VALUES SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 312242
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
645 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY INTO
THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON LABOR DAY
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY DRYING THE REGION OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. OVERALL THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS.

ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS THE DECAYING
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WELL
BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN MI...SO I AM THINKING THIS WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORTS CAPE OVER
1500 J/KG ON MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TOWARD 18Z AS THE
MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY IN WI ARRIVES IN NW LOWER. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRIGGER STORMS. THE SHEAR WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL A THREAT.
SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
HOWEVER THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING OVER THE EAST SEABOARD
BY MID WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 80S FOR HIGHS.  THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH MOVE IN AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT.  IF A LOW LEVEL JET COMES INTO PLAY WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE
GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN...CLOSER TO THE WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
THIS STRONG FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  H8 TEMPS
DROP TO +7 TO +10C AS COMPARED TO AROUND +19C AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST TERMINALS (KLAN AND
PERHAPS KBTL/KJXN) DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR MONDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

BY LATE MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BEACH HAZARDS AND SCA ISSUED FOR MONDAY

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH PWAT VALUES SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 312242
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
645 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY INTO
THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON LABOR DAY
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY DRYING THE REGION OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. OVERALL THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS.

ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS THE DECAYING
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WELL
BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN MI...SO I AM THINKING THIS WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORTS CAPE OVER
1500 J/KG ON MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TOWARD 18Z AS THE
MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY IN WI ARRIVES IN NW LOWER. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRIGGER STORMS. THE SHEAR WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL A THREAT.
SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
HOWEVER THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING OVER THE EAST SEABOARD
BY MID WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 80S FOR HIGHS.  THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH MOVE IN AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT.  IF A LOW LEVEL JET COMES INTO PLAY WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE
GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN...CLOSER TO THE WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
THIS STRONG FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  H8 TEMPS
DROP TO +7 TO +10C AS COMPARED TO AROUND +19C AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST TERMINALS (KLAN AND
PERHAPS KBTL/KJXN) DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR MONDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

BY LATE MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BEACH HAZARDS AND SCA ISSUED FOR MONDAY

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH PWAT VALUES SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 312242
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
645 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY INTO
THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON LABOR DAY
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY DRYING THE REGION OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. OVERALL THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS.

ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS THE DECAYING
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WELL
BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN MI...SO I AM THINKING THIS WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORTS CAPE OVER
1500 J/KG ON MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TOWARD 18Z AS THE
MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY IN WI ARRIVES IN NW LOWER. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRIGGER STORMS. THE SHEAR WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL A THREAT.
SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
HOWEVER THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING OVER THE EAST SEABOARD
BY MID WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 80S FOR HIGHS.  THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH MOVE IN AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT.  IF A LOW LEVEL JET COMES INTO PLAY WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE
GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN...CLOSER TO THE WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
THIS STRONG FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  H8 TEMPS
DROP TO +7 TO +10C AS COMPARED TO AROUND +19C AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST TERMINALS (KLAN AND
PERHAPS KBTL/KJXN) DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR MONDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

BY LATE MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BEACH HAZARDS AND SCA ISSUED FOR MONDAY

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH PWAT VALUES SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KAPX 311948
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR
LABOR DAY...ALONG WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT...

TIGHT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING EAST OUT OF NRN LAKE HURON THIS
AFTERNOON. STRUNG OUT SFC TROUGH STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS
NRN LAKE HURON AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT HAS BEEN RELAXING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL ABUNDANT STRATUS BACK ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING/MIXING INTO A STCU DECK...
ALTHOUGH THAT PROCESS IS FINALLY ACCELERATING THANKS TO LATE
AUGUST SUNSHINE...JUST IN TIME FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET. UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET CORE PUNCHING INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EROSION/MIXING OF STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MUCH OF THE REMAINING STCU FADES THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS...SUSPECT THAT SOME COMPONENT OF STATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE NRN/NE PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG DECAYING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THUS HAVE STRETCHED
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE
CWA. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE INTO THE S/SW AND
SHOULD FINALLY KICK REMAINING STRATUS OUT OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
JUST IN TIME FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE
OF TOMORROWS SYSTEM.

STILL A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND DEWPOINTS
STILL AROUND 60F. BUT WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS/LIMITED MIXING AND
LIGHT WINDS...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD BET ALTHOUGH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND ERODE FOG
FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

A FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
COMING DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SURFACE FRONTS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF GOOD
CHANCES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE TYPICAL "NORMALS" THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
OFF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THEN POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
WIND FIELDS ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40 TO 50 KNOTS).
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
EASTERN UPPER TO THE MIDDLE 80S NORTHEAST LOWER) PUSHES MODEL ML
CAPES TO UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. SO THERE REMAINS
DECENT POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

MONDAY OVERNIGHT...FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH LOW CLOUDS (STRATUS)
LIKE TODAY (SUNDAY). MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO START WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY SLOWLY DECREASE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN
SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (RESULTING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES) FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AS HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE 80S
WITH MORE CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING
FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR STRATUS FAIRLY STUCK ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH
LATE AUGUST SUNSHINE IS ERODING THE EDGES AND POKING HOLES. BUT
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH A GOOD
PART OF THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT SOME LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP
LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT
THAT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON (AFTER THE CURRENT 18Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD). FOR THE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BY MIDDAY...GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH QUITE A
BIT OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME MARINE FOG WILL IMPACT THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTHWEST LABOR DAY...INCREASING TO GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE AND LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LABOR DAY. WILL HOIST THOSE ADVISORIES NOW TO GIVE SOME LEAD
TIME TO POTENTIAL BOATERS. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY...BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THOSE POSSIBILITIES.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...LATER MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM






000
FXUS63 KAPX 311948
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR
LABOR DAY...ALONG WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT...

TIGHT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING EAST OUT OF NRN LAKE HURON THIS
AFTERNOON. STRUNG OUT SFC TROUGH STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS
NRN LAKE HURON AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT HAS BEEN RELAXING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL ABUNDANT STRATUS BACK ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING/MIXING INTO A STCU DECK...
ALTHOUGH THAT PROCESS IS FINALLY ACCELERATING THANKS TO LATE
AUGUST SUNSHINE...JUST IN TIME FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET. UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET CORE PUNCHING INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EROSION/MIXING OF STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MUCH OF THE REMAINING STCU FADES THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS...SUSPECT THAT SOME COMPONENT OF STATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE NRN/NE PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG DECAYING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THUS HAVE STRETCHED
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE
CWA. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE INTO THE S/SW AND
SHOULD FINALLY KICK REMAINING STRATUS OUT OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
JUST IN TIME FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE
OF TOMORROWS SYSTEM.

STILL A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND DEWPOINTS
STILL AROUND 60F. BUT WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS/LIMITED MIXING AND
LIGHT WINDS...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD BET ALTHOUGH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND ERODE FOG
FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

A FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
COMING DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SURFACE FRONTS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF GOOD
CHANCES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE TYPICAL "NORMALS" THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
OFF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THEN POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
WIND FIELDS ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40 TO 50 KNOTS).
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
EASTERN UPPER TO THE MIDDLE 80S NORTHEAST LOWER) PUSHES MODEL ML
CAPES TO UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. SO THERE REMAINS
DECENT POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

MONDAY OVERNIGHT...FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH LOW CLOUDS (STRATUS)
LIKE TODAY (SUNDAY). MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO START WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY SLOWLY DECREASE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN
SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (RESULTING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES) FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AS HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE 80S
WITH MORE CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING
FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR STRATUS FAIRLY STUCK ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH
LATE AUGUST SUNSHINE IS ERODING THE EDGES AND POKING HOLES. BUT
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH A GOOD
PART OF THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT SOME LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP
LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT
THAT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON (AFTER THE CURRENT 18Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD). FOR THE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BY MIDDAY...GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH QUITE A
BIT OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME MARINE FOG WILL IMPACT THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTHWEST LABOR DAY...INCREASING TO GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE AND LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LABOR DAY. WILL HOIST THOSE ADVISORIES NOW TO GIVE SOME LEAD
TIME TO POTENTIAL BOATERS. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY...BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THOSE POSSIBILITIES.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...LATER MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KDTX 311941
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
341 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER WAVE HAS MOVED FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO GEORGIAN BAY AND
EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING WERE INDICATIVE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING DOWN INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN (MORE LOWER CLOUDS...WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT) EARLY TODAY...BUT THIS HAS SINCE WASHED OUT AS
EXPECTED...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY NOT REALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF ANY
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN NOW. TRENDS IN
SATELLITE AND RADAR SUPPORT MODEL IDEA OF THE THETA-E RIDGE TRAILING
YESTERDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BREAKING/ERODING THROUGH THE
DAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MIXES
DOWN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE
TODAY SOUTH OF I-69 BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERY
MODEL RANGING FROM HI-RES TO GLOBAL CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED
CONVECTION FIRING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM
SOUNDINGS WERE A LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH THEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE
CAP ON THE KDTX SOUNDING AT 12Z THIS MORNING. WHILE SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE FROM I-69
SOUTH...SUSPECT THE MID-LEVEL CAP IS A LITTLE MORE HEALTHY THAT
MODELS SUGGEST BASED ON VISUAL AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THERE WAS
HOWEVER A STORM THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER JUST BEFORE 3 PM...AND THIS DOES SUGGEST SOME
INSTABILITY COULD BE TAPPED INTO...AND SUPPORTS LEAVING SOME LOW
MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST.

DIURNALLY ENHANCED CU FIELD WILL ERODE OVERNIGHT AS HEATING CEASES
AND SUBSIDENCE FROM SHORTWAVE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. NEARLY
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
HUMID HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING WELL IN THE 60S. EXPECT TO
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

AFTER A QUIET START TO LABOR DAY...THINGS LOOK TO TAKE A TURN FOR
THE WORSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. THE DYNAMICS CERTAINLY SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
EVENT WITH A 120 KNOT 250 MB JET STREAM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING
THIS PERIOD...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN EMERGING OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT 850 MB AN IMPRESSIVE 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GETTING INTO
THE MID 80S...SB CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

DESPITE THE GOOD DYNAMICS...IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THERE
ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON LABOR DAY.
MAINLY THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL DURING MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM HOSTILE...THEREFORE EVEN IF WE ARE
UNABLE TO GENERATE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ON OUR OWN...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TO TRACK THROUGH WHICH WOULD BE MOVING
INTO THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE INHERITED LIKELY POPS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE CONCERNS. SEVERE WEATHER WISE
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE LENDS ITSELF TO LINE SEGMENTS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS OF 13-14K FT
DO NOT LEND THEMSELVES TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL. THE UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS SOLID BASED ON THIS
EVIDENCE. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
WITH A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE AND LONG SKINNY CAPES. THIS MAY CAUSE
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
TRACK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY...TAKING
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS MID LEVEL RIDGING USHERS IN A QUIET
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...A DYNAMICALLY
EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL US. AN
OPEN 500 MB WAVE AND STRONG VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
COUNTRY AND HELP STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARM FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ROLLS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LABOR DAY WILL THEN START OUT PLEASANT BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME
STORMY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 119 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

//DISCUSSION...

DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH MICHIGAN YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM FNT SOUTHWARD INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP A TSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AND HANDLE WITH
AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE
TO CHIP AWAY AT LOW-LEVEL STRATO-CU DECK...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
RISE AND EVENTUAL SCATTERING OUT OF CEILINGS. TIMING OF THE BREAK-UP
OF THIS DECK IS UNCERTAIN...BUT LOOKS MOST LIKELY AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
FOG DEVELOPMENT AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH AND GROUNDS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA REMAIN SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL. VIS/CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THEM MVFR/IFR RANGE BEFORE LIFTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...POTENTIALLY BECOMING STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

FOR DTW...

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING DTW THROUGH 02Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 311941
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
341 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER WAVE HAS MOVED FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO GEORGIAN BAY AND
EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING WERE INDICATIVE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING DOWN INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN (MORE LOWER CLOUDS...WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT) EARLY TODAY...BUT THIS HAS SINCE WASHED OUT AS
EXPECTED...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY NOT REALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF ANY
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN NOW. TRENDS IN
SATELLITE AND RADAR SUPPORT MODEL IDEA OF THE THETA-E RIDGE TRAILING
YESTERDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BREAKING/ERODING THROUGH THE
DAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MIXES
DOWN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE
TODAY SOUTH OF I-69 BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERY
MODEL RANGING FROM HI-RES TO GLOBAL CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED
CONVECTION FIRING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM
SOUNDINGS WERE A LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH THEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE
CAP ON THE KDTX SOUNDING AT 12Z THIS MORNING. WHILE SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE FROM I-69
SOUTH...SUSPECT THE MID-LEVEL CAP IS A LITTLE MORE HEALTHY THAT
MODELS SUGGEST BASED ON VISUAL AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THERE WAS
HOWEVER A STORM THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER JUST BEFORE 3 PM...AND THIS DOES SUGGEST SOME
INSTABILITY COULD BE TAPPED INTO...AND SUPPORTS LEAVING SOME LOW
MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST.

DIURNALLY ENHANCED CU FIELD WILL ERODE OVERNIGHT AS HEATING CEASES
AND SUBSIDENCE FROM SHORTWAVE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. NEARLY
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
HUMID HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING WELL IN THE 60S. EXPECT TO
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

AFTER A QUIET START TO LABOR DAY...THINGS LOOK TO TAKE A TURN FOR
THE WORSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. THE DYNAMICS CERTAINLY SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
EVENT WITH A 120 KNOT 250 MB JET STREAM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING
THIS PERIOD...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN EMERGING OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT 850 MB AN IMPRESSIVE 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GETTING INTO
THE MID 80S...SB CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

DESPITE THE GOOD DYNAMICS...IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THERE
ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON LABOR DAY.
MAINLY THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL DURING MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM HOSTILE...THEREFORE EVEN IF WE ARE
UNABLE TO GENERATE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ON OUR OWN...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TO TRACK THROUGH WHICH WOULD BE MOVING
INTO THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE INHERITED LIKELY POPS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE CONCERNS. SEVERE WEATHER WISE
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE LENDS ITSELF TO LINE SEGMENTS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS OF 13-14K FT
DO NOT LEND THEMSELVES TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL. THE UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS SOLID BASED ON THIS
EVIDENCE. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
WITH A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE AND LONG SKINNY CAPES. THIS MAY CAUSE
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
TRACK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY...TAKING
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS MID LEVEL RIDGING USHERS IN A QUIET
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...A DYNAMICALLY
EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL US. AN
OPEN 500 MB WAVE AND STRONG VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
COUNTRY AND HELP STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARM FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ROLLS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LABOR DAY WILL THEN START OUT PLEASANT BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME
STORMY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON AND
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 119 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

//DISCUSSION...

DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH MICHIGAN YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM FNT SOUTHWARD INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP A TSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AND HANDLE WITH
AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE
TO CHIP AWAY AT LOW-LEVEL STRATO-CU DECK...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
RISE AND EVENTUAL SCATTERING OUT OF CEILINGS. TIMING OF THE BREAK-UP
OF THIS DECK IS UNCERTAIN...BUT LOOKS MOST LIKELY AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
FOG DEVELOPMENT AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH AND GROUNDS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA REMAIN SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL. VIS/CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THEM MVFR/IFR RANGE BEFORE LIFTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...POTENTIALLY BECOMING STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

FOR DTW...

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING DTW THROUGH 02Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI/MM
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KMQT 311940
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING SC IFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM AND RAIN ARRIVES BY
THEN FOR IWD AND CMX. SAW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF AN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUD/FOG EVENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTH WINDS AND PUT THAT SCENARIO OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS THERE TONIGHT. ON MON MORNING...RAIN WILL HAVE
STARTED AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WILL PREVAIL. LLJ SETS
UP TONIGHT OFF THE SFC AT ALL SITES AND PUT IN LLWS TO COVER IT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 311940
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING SC IFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM AND RAIN ARRIVES BY
THEN FOR IWD AND CMX. SAW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF AN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUD/FOG EVENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTH WINDS AND PUT THAT SCENARIO OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS THERE TONIGHT. ON MON MORNING...RAIN WILL HAVE
STARTED AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WILL PREVAIL. LLJ SETS
UP TONIGHT OFF THE SFC AT ALL SITES AND PUT IN LLWS TO COVER IT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 311940
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING SC IFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM AND RAIN ARRIVES BY
THEN FOR IWD AND CMX. SAW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF AN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUD/FOG EVENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTH WINDS AND PUT THAT SCENARIO OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS THERE TONIGHT. ON MON MORNING...RAIN WILL HAVE
STARTED AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WILL PREVAIL. LLJ SETS
UP TONIGHT OFF THE SFC AT ALL SITES AND PUT IN LLWS TO COVER IT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 311940
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING SC IFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM AND RAIN ARRIVES BY
THEN FOR IWD AND CMX. SAW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF AN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUD/FOG EVENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTH WINDS AND PUT THAT SCENARIO OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS THERE TONIGHT. ON MON MORNING...RAIN WILL HAVE
STARTED AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WILL PREVAIL. LLJ SETS
UP TONIGHT OFF THE SFC AT ALL SITES AND PUT IN LLWS TO COVER IT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KGRR 311930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY INTO
THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON LABOR DAY
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY DRYING THE REGION OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. OVERALL THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS.

ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS THE DECAYING
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WELL
BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN MI...SO I AM THINKING THIS WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORTS CAPE OVER
1500 J/KG ON MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TOWARD 18Z AS THE
MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY IN WI ARRIVES IN NW LOWER. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRIGGER STORMS. THE SHEAR WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL A THREAT.
SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES.





.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
HOWEVER THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING OVER THE EAST SEABOARD
BY MID WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 80S FOR HIGHS.  THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH MOVE IN AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT.  IF A LOW LEVEL JET COMES INTO PLAY WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE
GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN...CLOSER TO THE WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
THIS STRONG FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  H8 TEMPS
DROP TO +7 TO +10C AS COMPARED TO AROUND +19C AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CEILINGS WERE TRENDING TOWARD VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
SOME MVFR MAY HOLD ON UNTIL ABOUT 20Z. OTHERWISE THE VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. I
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVELS AND DIURNAL TRENDS.

THEN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ALSO IN THIS TIME FRAME
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BEACH HAZARDS AND SCA ISSUED FOR MONDAY

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH PWAT VALUES SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 311930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY INTO
THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON LABOR DAY
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY DRYING THE REGION OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. OVERALL THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS.

ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WHAT IMPACTS THE DECAYING
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WELL
BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN MI...SO I AM THINKING THIS WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MO