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000
FXUS63 KMQT 020822
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
422 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE
REGION CLOUD-FREE OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IRONWOOD AREA
WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION AND WHERE SFC HIGH
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE AT 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING.

TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST
INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LAKE BREEZES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING WILL SLIDE SE LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING
WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM
DEVELOPING SW GRADIENT WIND BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO LOWER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO
UPPER MICHIGAN IN OVER A WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SSE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY INCREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25MPH FOR THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
AFTER A WEEK OF DRYING...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
TUESDAY. FIRE WX INDICES FOR ALL FUELS...ESPECIALLY GRASSY
FUELS...HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN INCLUDE THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE HALF IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOW WHILE
CROSSING THE REGION...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY NNW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN THE 40S...WILL PRODUCE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR
EARLY MAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40F.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
QUICKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...HAVE TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO TOP OUT WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMING AT KIWD FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR FOG TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 020801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.

MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO
UPPER MICHIGAN IN OVER A WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SSE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY INCREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25MPH FOR THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
AFTER A WEEK OF DRYING...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
TUESDAY. FIRE WX INDICES FOR ALL FUELS...ESPECIALLY GRASSY
FUELS...HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN INCLUDE THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE HALF IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOW WHILE
CROSSING THE REGION...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY NNW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN THE 40S...WILL PRODUCE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR
EARLY MAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40F.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
QUICKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...HAVE TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO TOP OUT WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMING AT KIWD FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR FOG TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB



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000
FXUS63 KGRR 020730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
236 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OHIO WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND RAIN WILL END THIS MORNING AND THEN SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ALONG WITH COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND MAINLY DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS
THIS MORNING AND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS PCPN MOVING EAST AND DIMINISHING. MUCH OF
THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY 12Z LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THOUGH SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH MOVE SOUTH AND MIX OUT THE CLOUDS. TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TONIGHT...PROBABLY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FROST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS WELL HANDLED BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW SOME
WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY FIELD AND THETA-E DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.
THIS WE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE
PCPN FROM ENDING QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY...SO DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A CHILLY DAY
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BUT THE MAIN
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY... AND MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS RIDGING
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT AT THE LK MI COAST.

MUCH OF SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY/WARM TOO WITH HIGHS 70-75... BUT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NRN GRTLKS RGN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO A BATCH OF LATE DAY CONVECTION WHICH CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY. RESULT SHOULD BE FOR SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS
ENDING FOLLOWED BY A DECREASING CLOUD TREND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR IMPACTS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI. RADAR COMBINED
WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN. I ADDED THIS
RISK EARLIER. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FOR THESE TAFS
SITES TONIGHT...THUS I MAINTAINED THE IFR RISK THROUGH DAYBREAK.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRAW DOWN A
DRIER AIRMASS DURING THE DAY. THUS CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO
RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH TODAY. WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WILL RESULT IN WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS... BUT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER GRAND BASIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04



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000
FXUS63 KDTX 020704
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
304 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S WAVE WILL BE OF
INSUFFICIENT DEPTH TO SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST 5KFT. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON, REINFORCED BY NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE SOUTH OF I-69 WHERE BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY
EXISTS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MID TO UPPER 50S EXCEPT LOW 60S
MAY IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE CLEARING IS FORECAST BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTN. IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN WAVE TAKING SHAPE ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED JET OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS MODELED
TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. INITIAL
IMPACT WILL BE A NOTABLY WARMER DAY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WSW GRADIENT AND A CONSIDERABLY
DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER NEARLY FULL EARLY MAY INSOLATION. MIXING
DEPTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AN AFTERNOON CU UP AND AREAWIDE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S GIVEN PROGGED LCL AT 4500 FT. DEEP TROPOSPHERIC
FRONT AND CONVERGENT/LINEAR FORCING WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS. SUSPECT
THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE NARROW LEADING TO A SHORT 3 TO 4 HOUR
DURATION FOR ANY ONE LOCATION. HOWEVER, STEEP LAPSE RATES DIRECTLY
BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT CARRYING LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TRAILING
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND A BIT OF A TROWAL STRUCTURE WRAP THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...

DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS.  A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL EXIST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH ALL
WATERWAYS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.  STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
LAKE HURON...WHERE A PERIOD OF WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE
EAST...LEAVING SOME RESIDUAL PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE.  A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN EXIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ONE QUARTER INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1240 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A WELL ORGANIZED ARC OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
WARM ADVECTION WING OF THE INBOUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT PROGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS REMOVED
RAINFALL MENTION FOR KMBS...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT LARGELY TO THE
PREVIOUS TAF NARRATIVES. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/BRIEF VCTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KDTW...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE TAF YET. FEEL THERE
IS JUST TOO LOW OF A CHANCE AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK UP THE
COLUMN...UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY UNDER THE LONGEST STRETCH/DURATION OF THE
COMPACT RADIUS DEFORMATION FORCING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE
OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...JUST A MATTER OF TIME
BEFORE THIS SLIDES INTO DETROIT. REFRAINED FROM LIFR IN THE TAFS
ATTM...WITH A LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL SUPPORT UPSTREAM. PERSISTENT
OVERCAST IS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BETTER
SIGNAL FOR CIG TREND TO MVFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...CIGS WILL LOWER BACK INTO IFR MOMENTARILY WITH GREATEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT WASHING ACROSS SOTUHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR BUT NO UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS ATTM. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE WHICH SEVERLY
COMPROMISES ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY HERE. THERE IS A RELATIVELY
STRONGER SIGNAL IN SUPPORT FOR MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 6-12Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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000
FXUS63 KAPX 020652
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
252 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SWINGS
THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...IOWA AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NRN
PORTION OF A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
MAKING IT WAY THRU SRN LWR MICHIGAN ATTM...AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO
STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA PER LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
AND BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN APPEARS TO BE WINNING
OUT...HOLDING DEEP MOISTURE AND RESULTING CONVECTION SOUTH OF OUR
CWA OVER SRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU THIS MORNING. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF LWR MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDDAY OR SO AS THE RESPONSIBLE
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS.

ASIDE FROM SOME ADDITIONAL MID CLOUD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR
ERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SOME LOW
CLOUDS SLIDING THRU OUR FAR SE CWA ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THAT
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...OVERALL SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THRU THE COLUMN. SHOULD BE
A RATHER NICE EARLY MAY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS TO START THE
WORKWEEK TODAY...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

IMPACTS: MINIMAL

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: CURRENT SETUP WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OUT WEST AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL
EVOLVE INTO A MORE POSITIVE PNA SETUP BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL START
MONDAY NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV OVER MANITOBA
BRINGS AN INITIAL ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY AND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER REINFORCE THE TROUGHING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SFC LOW OVER MI
IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS WELL...AS THE H5 OPEN WAVE STRENGTHENS INTO A
CUTOFF LOW. WITH THE AXIS INITIALLY OVER WI/LAKE MI...PVA AND WAA
WILL BE WELL PLACED TO INDUCE THE SFC LOW. THIS DEEP TROUGHING WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SOME SUB ZERO H8 AIR OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY BE USHERED OUT AS HEIGHT RISES FROM THE STRONG RIDGING TO
THE WEST BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING RAIN AND ANY THUNDER
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. QG ASCENT REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PEAK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MAY STRING OUT
THE PRECIP CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...RIGHT NEAR CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT
EXPECTING HUGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST AREAS NEAR A QUARTER OF
AN INCH AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SPOTS JUST OVER. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT...HAVE BEEN DEBATING THUNDER CHANCES. THERE ARE SOME DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND A FEW STABILITY PARAMETERS HINT AT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...ENDING IT
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THE SHARP TROUGHING MOVES OVER MI...BUT WE
WILL QUICKLY RECOVER TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED...

SFC LOW AND H5 CUTOFF WILL MOVE OFF THURSDAY...GETTING TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIDGING WILL BE SETUP
THROUGH THE PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER H5 CUTOFF LOW SETUP OVER CA/NV.
THIS WILL SETUP ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY BEFORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
FLATTENING THE RIDGING AND BREAKING DOWN THE BLOCK LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS COLD FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
BIT OF THUNDER AS IT PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL START RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

ONE LAST 500 MB WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH IS
PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS DOWN STATE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT WILL
HOLD UP SOME OF THE CLEARING SKIES OVER N LOWER UNTIL THE WAVE
MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, AND PUSH OUT THE REMAINING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BY 09Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAIN THE
RULE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REACH SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KMQT 020624
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
224 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.

MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THROUGH THE WEEK...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING
AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL IN
TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN N AMERICA WITH THE TROF REACHING PEAK
AMPLITUDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY
APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER SW CONUS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW LATER THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKING WRN CANADA RIDGE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED
TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE/WED WITH COLD
FROPA OCCURRING TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS FROPA BRINGS THE BEST CHC OF
PCPN THIS WEEK. WITH DECENT FORCING...POPS AT LEAST INTO THE HIGH
CHC TO LOW LIKELY CATEGORY APPEAR REASONABLE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING.
DECENT FORCING/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID LEVEL TROF
BECOMES...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER INTO WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
RUNS YESTERDAY TRENDED TOWARD MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO UPPER MI TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN ON WED. SINCE THEN...
GUIDANCE HAS WAIVERED ON THIS IDEA. WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS FCST IN SHOWING SCHC POPS (CHC ACROSS THE NCNTRL AND
E) INTO WED MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY PCPN...MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS THERMAL TROF WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-4C WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. 00Z/12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WRN CANADA RIDGE WILL PASS
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THIS A NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE 12Z RUNS BACK UP THE POSSIBILITY. AS A RESULT..SCHC
TO LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SAT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE PATTERN THIS WEEK FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR UPPER MI ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS. NIGHTTIME MINS WILL
STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR ON AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. TUE WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES IN
THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT/CLOUD COVER AND SHRA...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED
UNDER BRISK N WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 40F. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA...
FURTHER SUPPORTING COOL CONDITIONS. MODERATION WILL OCCUR THU WITH
MORE WARMING FRI AND POSSIBLY ON INTO SAT...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. RECENT
GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED THAT FRI AND/OR SAT COULD BE QUITE
WARM WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. WILL TURN COOLER AGAIN
FOR SUN. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...NAEFS OUTLOOKS ARE SUGGESTING A
TREND TOWARD AN OVERALL SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMP REGIME DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

EVEN IF MOST AREAS SEE SOME PCPN TUE...AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT
AND WON`T REALLY AFFECT WHAT IS BECOMING AN EXTENDED DRY SPELL FOR
UPPER MI. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY COOL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT...WILL KEEP GREENUP SLOW. THUS...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT
TIMES FOR THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. THIS WEEK...TUE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH POTENTIAL OF
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS/-SHRA ARRIVE SOONER...FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE EASED. IF THE
COLD FRONT MATERIALIZES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL OCCUR ON THE DAY PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE OR THE
DAY OF FROPA...EITHER FRI OR SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMING AT KIWD FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR FOG TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020500
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE MORNING, BUT FOR THE MOST PART,
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE FORSEEN TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND
WITH THE WINDS DECOUPLING WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM
AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 30S. LOOKING AT THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
(DEWPOINTS AT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY), IT SEEMS THAT LOWS
PROBABLY WON`T GO MUCH BELOW THAT POINT, IF AT ALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE PUSHING THE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SKIES BY MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SKIES CLEARING A
LITTLE QUICKER AND TEMPERATURES FALLING A LITTLE FURTHER THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOWLY SETTLING TOWARD
FAR NW SUPERIOR. PRECIP IS DWINDLING WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON...
NOT MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES LEFT OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA IS SEEN OVER IOWA...
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THAT LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT
MOVES JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE FADES AWAY TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. MIGHT NEED A SPRINKLE MENTION IN THE LAST FEW DAYLIGHT
HOURS...DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP AFTER DUSK. UPSTREAM SHRA WILL
ROLL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS OF
NOW THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO MISS US TO THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR SE.

SYNOPTIC CLOUD COVER HAS EXITED WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES...WITH
LAKE BREEZE CU FIRING. THAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
INCOMING UPPER LOW/SHRA DOWNSTATE WILL HELP SUPPORT CLOUD COVER MUCH
LONGER IN NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: VERY "BLOCKY" PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH DECAYING NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION BEING
REPLACED BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRIVER OF
SUCH. DESPITE THIS BLOCKING...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE ONE THROUGH MIDWEEK...DRIVEN
IN LARGE PART BY PASSAGE OF ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DRUMMING UP SOME MORE SHOWER CONCERNS BY LATER TUESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDRESSING THOSE SHOWER CHANCES
(POSSIBLE THUNDER?) LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: NOT A BAD LOOKING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...ACTUAL CLOUD FORECAST REMAINS A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE
WITH HINTS OF 5KFT CENTERED SHALLOW CLOUD DECK FORMING DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS/NAM BUFFER PROGS SHOW
THIS...WITH SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE TUCKED UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ALL-THE-WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC. PER TRENDS...GOTTA BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW BASED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS WHERE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WILL CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IF
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE SCENARIO IS REALIZED...SKIES MAY TREND
MORE ON THE CLOUDY SIDE OF THINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMPLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WILL SURE HELP THE TEMPERATURE
CAUSE...WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY BREAKING THE 60 DEGREE MARK
(ALBEIT...ONLY BARELY).

CONTINUED DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF TUESDAY GIVES
WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATER IN THE DAY...AND
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THOSE EARLIER TALKED ABOUT BUILDING
WESTERN HEIGHTS FORCE A WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH AN ATTENDANT
WELL DEVELOPED COLD FRONT COLLOCATED NICELY WITH SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT. COOLING MID LEVELS SUPPORT SOME DECENT H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL
FORCING...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE ABOUT THE
ONLY COMPONENT LACKING...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING WILL SPIKE PWAT VALUES TO WELL OVER HALF AN INCH.
ABOVE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO...BUT DEFINITELY NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THAT IDEA TO INCLUDE A
SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. UNFORTUNATELY...SOME
LINGERING TIMING UNCERTAINTY WARRANTS WHAT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL BE
A MUCH TOO LONG MENTION OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. PER TRENDS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR SHOWER CHANCES TO BE RELEGATED TO A FEW HOUR
WINDOW...DIRECTLY TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. STILL
TIME TO WORK THOSE DETAILS OUT.

LINGERING SHOWER THREAT WEDNESDAY TIED TO INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH
MAINTENANCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS CENTER OF TROUGH AXIS
DROPS OVERHEAD. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXIT OF COLD
FRONT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SOME
IMPRESSIVE COOLING TIED TO THIS TROUGHING...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NOW
LOOKING TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...A GOOD TO 10 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN HIGHS
ON TUESDAY AND AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL.

EXTENDED...

AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP IN THE 500MB PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK....WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROUGHING OFF
THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. GUIDANCE SHOWS CUTOFF
LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGHS AS THE WHOLE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON THURSDAY. CLOSER TO EARTH...WE MAY SEE SOME
STRAGGLING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AFTER A WAVE
SLIDES DOWN AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND HEADS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT BIG RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUTS THE KIBOSH ON MOISTURE AND WE
TREND DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS COLLAPSING ON
SATURDAY...AND MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM
CANADA FOR MAYBE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY AGAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY. BUT HONESTLY...I
HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL COME FROM. WILL
LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS THAT BLENDED SOLUTIONS GIVE...SINCE IT`S SO
FAR OFF...BUT WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF WE SKIRT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO CLIMO IN THE EXTENDED..AND ACTUALLY
POP WARMER (HIGHS IN THE 70`S) FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

ONE LAST 500 MB WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH IS
PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS DOWN STATE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT WILL
HOLD UP SOME OF THE CLEARING SKIES OVER N LOWER UNTIL THE WAVE
MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, AND PUSH OUT THE REMAINING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BY 09Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. NE-ERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELLED EARLY...AND NO FURTHER HEADLINES SHOULD BE NEEDED THRU
THE START OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MSB/KB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020500
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE MORNING, BUT FOR THE MOST PART,
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE FORSEEN TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND
WITH THE WINDS DECOUPLING WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM
AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 30S. LOOKING AT THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
(DEWPOINTS AT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY), IT SEEMS THAT LOWS
PROBABLY WON`T GO MUCH BELOW THAT POINT, IF AT ALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE PUSHING THE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SKIES BY MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SKIES CLEARING A
LITTLE QUICKER AND TEMPERATURES FALLING A LITTLE FURTHER THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOWLY SETTLING TOWARD
FAR NW SUPERIOR. PRECIP IS DWINDLING WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON...
NOT MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES LEFT OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA IS SEEN OVER IOWA...
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THAT LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT
MOVES JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE FADES AWAY TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. MIGHT NEED A SPRINKLE MENTION IN THE LAST FEW DAYLIGHT
HOURS...DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP AFTER DUSK. UPSTREAM SHRA WILL
ROLL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS OF
NOW THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO MISS US TO THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR SE.

SYNOPTIC CLOUD COVER HAS EXITED WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES...WITH
LAKE BREEZE CU FIRING. THAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
INCOMING UPPER LOW/SHRA DOWNSTATE WILL HELP SUPPORT CLOUD COVER MUCH
LONGER IN NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: VERY "BLOCKY" PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH DECAYING NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION BEING
REPLACED BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRIVER OF
SUCH. DESPITE THIS BLOCKING...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE ONE THROUGH MIDWEEK...DRIVEN
IN LARGE PART BY PASSAGE OF ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DRUMMING UP SOME MORE SHOWER CONCERNS BY LATER TUESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDRESSING THOSE SHOWER CHANCES
(POSSIBLE THUNDER?) LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: NOT A BAD LOOKING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...ACTUAL CLOUD FORECAST REMAINS A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE
WITH HINTS OF 5KFT CENTERED SHALLOW CLOUD DECK FORMING DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS/NAM BUFFER PROGS SHOW
THIS...WITH SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE TUCKED UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ALL-THE-WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC. PER TRENDS...GOTTA BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW BASED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS WHERE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WILL CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IF
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE SCENARIO IS REALIZED...SKIES MAY TREND
MORE ON THE CLOUDY SIDE OF THINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMPLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WILL SURE HELP THE TEMPERATURE
CAUSE...WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY BREAKING THE 60 DEGREE MARK
(ALBEIT...ONLY BARELY).

CONTINUED DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF TUESDAY GIVES
WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATER IN THE DAY...AND
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THOSE EARLIER TALKED ABOUT BUILDING
WESTERN HEIGHTS FORCE A WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH AN ATTENDANT
WELL DEVELOPED COLD FRONT COLLOCATED NICELY WITH SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT. COOLING MID LEVELS SUPPORT SOME DECENT H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL
FORCING...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE ABOUT THE
ONLY COMPONENT LACKING...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING WILL SPIKE PWAT VALUES TO WELL OVER HALF AN INCH.
ABOVE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO...BUT DEFINITELY NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THAT IDEA TO INCLUDE A
SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. UNFORTUNATELY...SOME
LINGERING TIMING UNCERTAINTY WARRANTS WHAT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL BE
A MUCH TOO LONG MENTION OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. PER TRENDS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR SHOWER CHANCES TO BE RELEGATED TO A FEW HOUR
WINDOW...DIRECTLY TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. STILL
TIME TO WORK THOSE DETAILS OUT.

LINGERING SHOWER THREAT WEDNESDAY TIED TO INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH
MAINTENANCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS CENTER OF TROUGH AXIS
DROPS OVERHEAD. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXIT OF COLD
FRONT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SOME
IMPRESSIVE COOLING TIED TO THIS TROUGHING...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NOW
LOOKING TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...A GOOD TO 10 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN HIGHS
ON TUESDAY AND AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL.

EXTENDED...

AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP IN THE 500MB PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK....WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROUGHING OFF
THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. GUIDANCE SHOWS CUTOFF
LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGHS AS THE WHOLE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON THURSDAY. CLOSER TO EARTH...WE MAY SEE SOME
STRAGGLING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AFTER A WAVE
SLIDES DOWN AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND HEADS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT BIG RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUTS THE KIBOSH ON MOISTURE AND WE
TREND DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS COLLAPSING ON
SATURDAY...AND MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM
CANADA FOR MAYBE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY AGAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY. BUT HONESTLY...I
HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL COME FROM. WILL
LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS THAT BLENDED SOLUTIONS GIVE...SINCE IT`S SO
FAR OFF...BUT WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF WE SKIRT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO CLIMO IN THE EXTENDED..AND ACTUALLY
POP WARMER (HIGHS IN THE 70`S) FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

ONE LAST 500 MB WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH IS
PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS DOWN STATE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT WILL
HOLD UP SOME OF THE CLEARING SKIES OVER N LOWER UNTIL THE WAVE
MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, AND PUSH OUT THE REMAINING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BY 09Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. NE-ERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELLED EARLY...AND NO FURTHER HEADLINES SHOULD BE NEEDED THRU
THE START OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MSB/KB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JZ




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020440
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1240 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...

A WELL ORGANIZED ARC OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
WARM ADVECTION WING OF THE INBOUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT PROGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS REMOVED
RAINFALL MENTION FOR KMBS...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT LARGELY TO THE
PREVIOUS TAF NARRATIVES. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/BRIEF VCTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KDTW...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE TAF YET. FEEL THERE
IS JUST TOO LOW OF A CHANCE AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK UP THE
COLUMN...UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY UNDER THE LONGEST STRETCH/DURATION OF THE
COMPACT RADIUS DEFORMATION FORCING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE
OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...JUST A MATTER OF TIME
BEFORE THIS SLIDES INTO DETROIT. REFRAINED FROM LIFR IN THE TAFS
ATTM...WITH A LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL SUPPORT UPSTREAM. PERSISTENT
OVERCAST IS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BETTER
SIGNAL FOR CIG TREND TO MVFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...CIGS WILL LOWER BACK INTO IFR MOMENTARILY WITH GREATEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT WASHING ACROSS SOTUHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR BUT NO UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS ATTM. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE WHICH SEVERLY
COMPROMISES ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY HERE. THERE IS A RELATIVELY
STRONGER SIGNAL IN SUPPORT FOR MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 6-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 929 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATE...

THE IMPENDING WEATHER EPISODE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE (STILL A CLOSED CIRCULATION
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) THAT WILL OPEN AND TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 03-12Z TONIGHT.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS WORTH DISCUSSION. THE FIRST IS THE
AMOUNT/VIGOR OF THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SIFTING THROUGH MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR INDIANAPOLIS EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO. ITS PROBABLY NOT A LOT...BUT THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
BALANCE HAS BEEN FAVORABLE. NWP SUGGESTS THAT SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FROM 00-06Z IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW
STATIC STABILITY IN THE MIDLEVELS...WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES
INCREASING TO OR IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z. NOT
OVERLY TRUSTWORTHY OF THE 18Z NAM...AS IT IS SHOWING SOME PECULIAR
REDISTRIBUTION IN THE MASS FIELDS IN THE 3 HOURLY OUTPUT. THE NET
RESULT BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS AND THE FORECASTED MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FOR THE DETROIT METRO
AREA SOUTHWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ACTIVITY
REMAINING ELEVATED WITH NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE 2ND ITEM TO DISCUSS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IDEA IS ASCERTAINED WITH THE
LOOK OF AND AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...VERY SMALL
CURVATURE/RADIUS TO THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY STREAK DIRECTLY ACROSS IN SOME
CONFIGURATION DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN DTX CWA. SO...WITH THE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A REASONABLE DURATION OF LENGTH...COULD
SEE VERY QUICK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.0 INCH
POSSIBLE. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO EXCEED 1.0 INCH LATE THIS
EVENING. LATEST RAP AND HRRR...SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS MAY OCCUR DIRECTLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN BORDER OVER OHIO.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL REMAIN THAT FAR
SOUTH. THERE IS TYPICALLY ERROR IN WHAT PORTION OF THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FIRE. PREFER SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THIS
INSTANCE...DIRECTLY IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST/SHARPEST OF DIRECT
DCVA.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE LAKES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE AREA.

UPPER LOW OVER NE/IA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT...OPENING AS IT BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH THE BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTER
LOOKING TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER OHIO. SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...ELEVATED PORTIONS OF WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT LOOKS TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...WITH FORCING ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING FROM A JET STREAK TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PROMPT A NICE
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO 7-8 C/KM. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO WHERE A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FEEDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. DEFORMATION AREA AND ASSOCIATED RAIN LOOK TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS. COOLER AIR SPILLING IN
ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW...ENHANCED BY ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSING FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH
ABOUT 750MB AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT UP THROUGH AN
INVERSION POSITIONED JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL...WITH NAM MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN GFS. NAM WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS SOME DRYING OCCURS IN
THE MID LEVELS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING RAIN MENTION AND STICK WITH
JUST CLOUDS BASED ON GFS/EURO...AS NAM SOMETIMES CARRIES A BIAS WITH
TOO MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY SOME CLOUD
COVER (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) AND NORTH FLOW...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REACH THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S.
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO WORK DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW PROGGED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DRIFT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
RESULT WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SOLID WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.

MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SOME CHANNELING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
TO SUPPORT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TOMORROW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT STILL 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M59 CORRIDOR. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM LOCAL TIME. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH
JUST MODEST RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS...ALONG WITH PONDING/STANDING
WATER IN NORMALLY PRONE LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION...HLO/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020440
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1240 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...

A WELL ORGANIZED ARC OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
WARM ADVECTION WING OF THE INBOUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT PROGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS REMOVED
RAINFALL MENTION FOR KMBS...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT LARGELY TO THE
PREVIOUS TAF NARRATIVES. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/BRIEF VCTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KDTW...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE TAF YET. FEEL THERE
IS JUST TOO LOW OF A CHANCE AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK UP THE
COLUMN...UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY UNDER THE LONGEST STRETCH/DURATION OF THE
COMPACT RADIUS DEFORMATION FORCING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE
OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...JUST A MATTER OF TIME
BEFORE THIS SLIDES INTO DETROIT. REFRAINED FROM LIFR IN THE TAFS
ATTM...WITH A LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL SUPPORT UPSTREAM. PERSISTENT
OVERCAST IS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BETTER
SIGNAL FOR CIG TREND TO MVFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...CIGS WILL LOWER BACK INTO IFR MOMENTARILY WITH GREATEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT WASHING ACROSS SOTUHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR BUT NO UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS ATTM. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE WHICH SEVERLY
COMPROMISES ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY HERE. THERE IS A RELATIVELY
STRONGER SIGNAL IN SUPPORT FOR MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 6-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 929 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATE...

THE IMPENDING WEATHER EPISODE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE (STILL A CLOSED CIRCULATION
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) THAT WILL OPEN AND TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 03-12Z TONIGHT.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS WORTH DISCUSSION. THE FIRST IS THE
AMOUNT/VIGOR OF THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SIFTING THROUGH MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR INDIANAPOLIS EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO. ITS PROBABLY NOT A LOT...BUT THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
BALANCE HAS BEEN FAVORABLE. NWP SUGGESTS THAT SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FROM 00-06Z IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW
STATIC STABILITY IN THE MIDLEVELS...WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES
INCREASING TO OR IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z. NOT
OVERLY TRUSTWORTHY OF THE 18Z NAM...AS IT IS SHOWING SOME PECULIAR
REDISTRIBUTION IN THE MASS FIELDS IN THE 3 HOURLY OUTPUT. THE NET
RESULT BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS AND THE FORECASTED MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FOR THE DETROIT METRO
AREA SOUTHWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ACTIVITY
REMAINING ELEVATED WITH NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE 2ND ITEM TO DISCUSS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IDEA IS ASCERTAINED WITH THE
LOOK OF AND AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...VERY SMALL
CURVATURE/RADIUS TO THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY STREAK DIRECTLY ACROSS IN SOME
CONFIGURATION DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN DTX CWA. SO...WITH THE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A REASONABLE DURATION OF LENGTH...COULD
SEE VERY QUICK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.0 INCH
POSSIBLE. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO EXCEED 1.0 INCH LATE THIS
EVENING. LATEST RAP AND HRRR...SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS MAY OCCUR DIRECTLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN BORDER OVER OHIO.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL REMAIN THAT FAR
SOUTH. THERE IS TYPICALLY ERROR IN WHAT PORTION OF THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FIRE. PREFER SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THIS
INSTANCE...DIRECTLY IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST/SHARPEST OF DIRECT
DCVA.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE LAKES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE AREA.

UPPER LOW OVER NE/IA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT...OPENING AS IT BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH THE BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTER
LOOKING TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER OHIO. SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...ELEVATED PORTIONS OF WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT LOOKS TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...WITH FORCING ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING FROM A JET STREAK TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PROMPT A NICE
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO 7-8 C/KM. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO WHERE A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FEEDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. DEFORMATION AREA AND ASSOCIATED RAIN LOOK TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS. COOLER AIR SPILLING IN
ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW...ENHANCED BY ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSING FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH
ABOUT 750MB AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT UP THROUGH AN
INVERSION POSITIONED JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL...WITH NAM MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN GFS. NAM WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS SOME DRYING OCCURS IN
THE MID LEVELS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING RAIN MENTION AND STICK WITH
JUST CLOUDS BASED ON GFS/EURO...AS NAM SOMETIMES CARRIES A BIAS WITH
TOO MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY SOME CLOUD
COVER (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) AND NORTH FLOW...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REACH THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S.
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO WORK DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW PROGGED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DRIFT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
RESULT WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SOLID WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.

MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SOME CHANNELING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
TO SUPPORT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TOMORROW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT STILL 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M59 CORRIDOR. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM LOCAL TIME. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH
JUST MODEST RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS...ALONG WITH PONDING/STANDING
WATER IN NORMALLY PRONE LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION...HLO/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 020336
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1136 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AIR DOWN
FROM CANADA IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AROUND 60...BUT WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FROM I-96 SOUTHWARD. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE TOWARDS I-94 WHERE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH
IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. CONSIDERED ADDING A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY IS REALLY WEAK...ON THE ORDER OF A 100
J/KG. LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH POTENTIALLY
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT.
LEFT THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL GIVEN A LITTLE BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. 850MB LI/S GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW DOES NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP THE PCPN IN PLACE...SO I HAVE INCREASED
POPS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A COOL DAY HOLDING IN THE 50S.  THE
SYSTEM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST...SO SOME AREAS
WILL STILL SEE RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.  MODEL TRENDS ARE MUCH WARMER AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES IN AS THE PATTERN APPEARS MORE AMPLIFIED.  SOLID
WARM ADVECTION STARTS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH
SUNSHINE. H8 TEMPS JUMP TO AROUND +12C BY SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP
TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 70S. SOME TIMING ISSUES IN THE MODELS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT AS IT APPEARS NOW WE SHOULD SEE A COLD FRONT COME
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THIS
SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR IMPACTS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI. RADAR COMBINED
WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN. I ADDED THIS
RISK EARLIER. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FOR THESE TAFS
SITES TONIGHT...THUS I MAINTAINED THE IFR RISK THROUGH DAYBREAK.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRAW DOWN A
DRIER AIRMASS DURING THE DAY. THUS CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO
RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BUILD INTO MID WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS... BUT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER GRAND BASIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020205
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1005 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE MORNING, BUT FOR THE MOST PART,
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE FORSEEN TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND
WITH THE WINDS DECOUPLING WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM
AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 30S. LOOKING AT THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
(DEWPOINTS AT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY), IT SEEMS THAT LOWS
PROBABLY WON`T GO MUCH BELOW THAT POINT, IF AT ALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE PUSHING THE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SKIES BY MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SKIES CLEARING A
LITTLE QUICKER AND TEMPERATURES FALLING A LITTLE FURTHER THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOWLY SETTLING TOWARD
FAR NW SUPERIOR. PRECIP IS DWINDLING WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON...
NOT MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES LEFT OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA IS SEEN OVER IOWA...
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THAT LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT
MOVES JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE FADES AWAY TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. MIGHT NEED A SPRINKLE MENTION IN THE LAST FEW DAYLIGHT
HOURS...DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP AFTER DUSK. UPSTREAM SHRA WILL
ROLL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS OF
NOW THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO MISS US TO THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR SE.

SYNOPTIC CLOUD COVER HAS EXITED WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES...WITH
LAKE BREEZE CU FIRING. THAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
INCOMING UPPER LOW/SHRA DOWNSTATE WILL HELP SUPPORT CLOUD COVER MUCH
LONGER IN NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: VERY "BLOCKY" PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH DECAYING NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION BEING
REPLACED BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRIVER OF
SUCH. DESPITE THIS BLOCKING...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE ONE THROUGH MIDWEEK...DRIVEN
IN LARGE PART BY PASSAGE OF ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DRUMMING UP SOME MORE SHOWER CONCERNS BY LATER TUESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDRESSING THOSE SHOWER CHANCES
(POSSIBLE THUNDER?) LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: NOT A BAD LOOKING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...ACTUAL CLOUD FORECAST REMAINS A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE
WITH HINTS OF 5KFT CENTERED SHALLOW CLOUD DECK FORMING DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS/NAM BUFFER PROGS SHOW
THIS...WITH SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE TUCKED UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ALL-THE-WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC. PER TRENDS...GOTTA BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW BASED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS WHERE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WILL CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IF
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE SCENARIO IS REALIZED...SKIES MAY TREND
MORE ON THE CLOUDY SIDE OF THINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMPLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WILL SURE HELP THE TEMPERATURE
CAUSE...WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY BREAKING THE 60 DEGREE MARK
(ALBEIT...ONLY BARELY).

CONTINUED DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF TUESDAY GIVES
WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATER IN THE DAY...AND
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THOSE EARLIER TALKED ABOUT BUILDING
WESTERN HEIGHTS FORCE A WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH AN ATTENDANT
WELL DEVELOPED COLD FRONT COLLOCATED NICELY WITH SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT. COOLING MID LEVELS SUPPORT SOME DECENT H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL
FORCING...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE ABOUT THE
ONLY COMPONENT LACKING...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING WILL SPIKE PWAT VALUES TO WELL OVER HALF AN INCH.
ABOVE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO...BUT DEFINITELY NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THAT IDEA TO INCLUDE A
SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. UNFORTUNATELY...SOME
LINGERING TIMING UNCERTAINTY WARRANTS WHAT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL BE
A MUCH TOO LONG MENTION OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. PER TRENDS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR SHOWER CHANCES TO BE RELEGATED TO A FEW HOUR
WINDOW...DIRECTLY TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. STILL
TIME TO WORK THOSE DETAILS OUT.

LINGERING SHOWER THREAT WEDNESDAY TIED TO INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH
MAINTENANCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS CENTER OF TROUGH AXIS
DROPS OVERHEAD. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXIT OF COLD
FRONT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SOME
IMPRESSIVE COOLING TIED TO THIS TROUGHING...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NOW
LOOKING TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...A GOOD TO 10 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN HIGHS
ON TUESDAY AND AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL.

EXTENDED...

AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP IN THE 500MB PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK....WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROUGHING OFF
THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. GUIDANCE SHOWS CUTOFF
LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGHS AS THE WHOLE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON THURSDAY. CLOSER TO EARTH...WE MAY SEE SOME
STRAGGLING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AFTER A WAVE
SLIDES DOWN AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND HEADS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT BIG RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUTS THE KIBOSH ON MOISTURE AND WE
TREND DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS COLLAPSING ON
SATURDAY...AND MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM
CANADA FOR MAYBE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY AGAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY. BUT HONESTLY...I
HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL COME FROM. WILL
LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS THAT BLENDED SOLUTIONS GIVE...SINCE IT`S SO
FAR OFF...BUT WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF WE SKIRT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO CLIMO IN THE EXTENDED..AND ACTUALLY
POP WARMER (HIGHS IN THE 70`S) FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA, AND IS CLEARING
OUT THE SKIES OVER THE REGION. WITH THAT THE NE TO N DRY FLOW OUT
OF THE SFC HIGH IS ERODING THE CLOUDS AND ALL CIGS ARE NOW VFR, AS
WELL AS THE VSBYS. THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, WILL BE EXPECTING THAT THE
COASTAL SITES (I.E. TVC, MBL, APN) WILL HAVE SOME SORT OF LAKE
BREEZE BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE LOOKING CLOSER AT THIS BEFORE THE
06Z ISSUANCE OR MAYBE SOONER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. NE-ERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELLED EARLY...AND NO FURTHER HEADLINES SHOULD BE NEEDED THRU
THE START OF THE DAY TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MSB/KB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020205
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1005 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE MORNING, BUT FOR THE MOST PART,
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE FORSEEN TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND
WITH THE WINDS DECOUPLING WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM
AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 30S. LOOKING AT THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
(DEWPOINTS AT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY), IT SEEMS THAT LOWS
PROBABLY WON`T GO MUCH BELOW THAT POINT, IF AT ALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE PUSHING THE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SKIES BY MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SKIES CLEARING A
LITTLE QUICKER AND TEMPERATURES FALLING A LITTLE FURTHER THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOWLY SETTLING TOWARD
FAR NW SUPERIOR. PRECIP IS DWINDLING WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON...
NOT MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES LEFT OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA IS SEEN OVER IOWA...
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THAT LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT
MOVES JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE FADES AWAY TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. MIGHT NEED A SPRINKLE MENTION IN THE LAST FEW DAYLIGHT
HOURS...DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP AFTER DUSK. UPSTREAM SHRA WILL
ROLL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS OF
NOW THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO MISS US TO THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR SE.

SYNOPTIC CLOUD COVER HAS EXITED WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES...WITH
LAKE BREEZE CU FIRING. THAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
INCOMING UPPER LOW/SHRA DOWNSTATE WILL HELP SUPPORT CLOUD COVER MUCH
LONGER IN NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: VERY "BLOCKY" PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH DECAYING NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION BEING
REPLACED BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRIVER OF
SUCH. DESPITE THIS BLOCKING...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE ONE THROUGH MIDWEEK...DRIVEN
IN LARGE PART BY PASSAGE OF ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DRUMMING UP SOME MORE SHOWER CONCERNS BY LATER TUESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDRESSING THOSE SHOWER CHANCES
(POSSIBLE THUNDER?) LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: NOT A BAD LOOKING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...ACTUAL CLOUD FORECAST REMAINS A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE
WITH HINTS OF 5KFT CENTERED SHALLOW CLOUD DECK FORMING DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS/NAM BUFFER PROGS SHOW
THIS...WITH SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE TUCKED UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ALL-THE-WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC. PER TRENDS...GOTTA BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW BASED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS WHERE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WILL CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IF
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE SCENARIO IS REALIZED...SKIES MAY TREND
MORE ON THE CLOUDY SIDE OF THINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMPLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WILL SURE HELP THE TEMPERATURE
CAUSE...WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY BREAKING THE 60 DEGREE MARK
(ALBEIT...ONLY BARELY).

CONTINUED DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF TUESDAY GIVES
WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATER IN THE DAY...AND
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THOSE EARLIER TALKED ABOUT BUILDING
WESTERN HEIGHTS FORCE A WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH AN ATTENDANT
WELL DEVELOPED COLD FRONT COLLOCATED NICELY WITH SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT. COOLING MID LEVELS SUPPORT SOME DECENT H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL
FORCING...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE ABOUT THE
ONLY COMPONENT LACKING...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING WILL SPIKE PWAT VALUES TO WELL OVER HALF AN INCH.
ABOVE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO...BUT DEFINITELY NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THAT IDEA TO INCLUDE A
SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. UNFORTUNATELY...SOME
LINGERING TIMING UNCERTAINTY WARRANTS WHAT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL BE
A MUCH TOO LONG MENTION OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. PER TRENDS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR SHOWER CHANCES TO BE RELEGATED TO A FEW HOUR
WINDOW...DIRECTLY TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. STILL
TIME TO WORK THOSE DETAILS OUT.

LINGERING SHOWER THREAT WEDNESDAY TIED TO INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH
MAINTENANCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS CENTER OF TROUGH AXIS
DROPS OVERHEAD. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXIT OF COLD
FRONT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SOME
IMPRESSIVE COOLING TIED TO THIS TROUGHING...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NOW
LOOKING TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...A GOOD TO 10 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN HIGHS
ON TUESDAY AND AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL.

EXTENDED...

AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP IN THE 500MB PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK....WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROUGHING OFF
THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. GUIDANCE SHOWS CUTOFF
LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGHS AS THE WHOLE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON THURSDAY. CLOSER TO EARTH...WE MAY SEE SOME
STRAGGLING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AFTER A WAVE
SLIDES DOWN AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND HEADS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT BIG RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUTS THE KIBOSH ON MOISTURE AND WE
TREND DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS COLLAPSING ON
SATURDAY...AND MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM
CANADA FOR MAYBE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY AGAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY. BUT HONESTLY...I
HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL COME FROM. WILL
LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS THAT BLENDED SOLUTIONS GIVE...SINCE IT`S SO
FAR OFF...BUT WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF WE SKIRT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO CLIMO IN THE EXTENDED..AND ACTUALLY
POP WARMER (HIGHS IN THE 70`S) FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA, AND IS CLEARING
OUT THE SKIES OVER THE REGION. WITH THAT THE NE TO N DRY FLOW OUT
OF THE SFC HIGH IS ERODING THE CLOUDS AND ALL CIGS ARE NOW VFR, AS
WELL AS THE VSBYS. THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, WILL BE EXPECTING THAT THE
COASTAL SITES (I.E. TVC, MBL, APN) WILL HAVE SOME SORT OF LAKE
BREEZE BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE LOOKING CLOSER AT THIS BEFORE THE
06Z ISSUANCE OR MAYBE SOONER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. NE-ERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELLED EARLY...AND NO FURTHER HEADLINES SHOULD BE NEEDED THRU
THE START OF THE DAY TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MSB/KB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JZ




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020129
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

THE IMPENDING WEATHER EPISODE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE (STILL A CLOSED CIRCULATION
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) THAT WILL OPEN AND TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 03-12Z TONIGHT.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS WORTH DISCUSSION. THE FIRST IS THE
AMOUNT/VIGOR OF THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SIFTING THROUGH MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR INDIANAPOLIS EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO. ITS PROBABLY NOT A LOT...BUT THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
BALANCE HAS BEEN FAVORABLE. NWP SUGGESTS THAT SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FROM 00-06Z IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW
STATIC STABILITY IN THE MIDLEVELS...WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES
INCREASING TO OR IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z. NOT
OVERLY TRUSTWORTHY OF THE 18Z NAM...AS IT IS SHOWING SOME PECULIAR
REDISTRIBUTION IN THE MASS FIELDS IN THE 3 HOURLY OUTPUT. THE NET
RESULT BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS AND THE FORECASTED MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FOR THE DETROIT METRO
AREA SOUTHWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ACTIVITY
REMAINING ELEVATED WITH NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE 2ND ITEM TO DISCUSS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IDEA IS ASCERTAINED WITH THE
LOOK OF AND AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...VERY SMALL
CURVATURE/RADIUS TO THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY STREAK DIRECTLY ACROSS IN SOME
CONFIGURATION DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN DTX CWA. SO...WITH THE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A REASONABLE DURATION OF LENGTH...COULD
SEE VERY QUICK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.0 INCH
POSSIBLE. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO EXCEED 1.0 INCH LATE THIS
EVENING. LATEST RAP AND HRRR...SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS MAY OCCUR DIRECTLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN BORDER OVER OHIO.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL REMAIN THAT FAR
SOUTH. THERE IS TYPICALLY ERROR IN WHAT PORTION OF THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FIRE. PREFER SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THIS
INSTANCE...DIRECTLY IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST/SHARPEST OF DIRECT
DCVA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 804 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER IA/WI/IL WILL EJECT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE AND
PRECIPITATION EPISODE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAME TO FRUITION HERE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE CLOUD DECK FOR ALL AREAS HAS REMAINED OPAQUE. WARM ADVECTION AND
MASS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR LATE
EVENING WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIG HEIGHTS. THE OVERALL DURATION OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL MAY BE AROUND 6 TO 8 HOURS
IN LENGTH ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGES AT KFNT/KMBS...THERE WILL BE LESS RAIN BUT IFR/LIFR
AND DRIZZLE IS STILL EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT OVERCAST
ON MONDAY...BUT MODESTLY STRONGER ADVECTIONS OCCURRING POST UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY SUPPORTS A MORE AGGRESSIVE EVOLUTION TO
MVFR/VFR HEIGHTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL LEAD BACK INTO IFR THIS
EVENING AS DEEP COLUMN SATURATION/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT LIFR GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT
OF AMBIENT MOISTURE. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL IN SUPPORT FOR MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 6-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE LAKES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE AREA.

UPPER LOW OVER NE/IA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT...OPENING AS IT BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH THE BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTER
LOOKING TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER OHIO. SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...ELEVATED PORTIONS OF WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT LOOKS TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...WITH FORCING ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING FROM A JET STREAK TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PROMPT A NICE
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO 7-8 C/KM. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO WHERE A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FEEDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. DEFORMATION AREA AND ASSOCIATED RAIN LOOK TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS. COOLER AIR SPILLING IN
ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW...ENHANCED BY ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSING FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH
ABOUT 750MB AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT UP THROUGH AN
INVERSION POSITIONED JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL...WITH NAM MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN GFS. NAM WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS SOME DRYING OCCURS IN
THE MID LEVELS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING RAIN MENTION AND STICK WITH
JUST CLOUDS BASED ON GFS/EURO...AS NAM SOMETIMES CARRIES A BIAS WITH
TOO MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY SOME CLOUD
COVER (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) AND NORTH FLOW...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REACH THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S.
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO WORK DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW PROGGED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DRIFT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
RESULT WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SOLID WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.

MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SOME CHANNELING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
TO SUPPORT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TOMORROW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT STILL 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M59 CORRIDOR. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM LOCAL TIME. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH
JUST MODEST RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS...ALONG WITH PONDING/STANDING
WATER IN NORMALLY PRONE LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...HLO/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020004
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
804 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.AVIATION...

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER IA/WI/IL WILL EJECT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE AND
PRECIPITATION EPISODE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAME TO FRUITION HERE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE CLOUD DECK FOR ALL AREAS HAS REMAINED OPAQUE. WARM ADVECTION AND
MASS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR LATE
EVENING WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIG HEIGHTS. THE OVERALL DURATION OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL MAY BE AROUND 6 TO 8 HOURS
IN LENGTH ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGES AT KFNT/KMBS...THERE WILL BE LESS RAIN BUT IFR/LIFR
AND DRIZZLE IS STILL EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT OVERCAST
ON MONDAY...BUT MODESTLY STRONGER ADVECTIONS OCCURING POST UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY SUPPORTS A MORE AGGRESSIVE EVOLUTION TO
MVFR/VFR HEIGHTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL LEAD BACK INTO IFR THIS
EVENING AS DEEP COLUMN SATURATION/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT LIFR GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT
OF AMBIENT MOISTURE. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL IN SUPPORT FOR MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 6-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE LAKES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE AREA.

UPPER LOW OVER NE/IA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT...OPENING AS IT BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH THE BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTER
LOOKING TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER OHIO. SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...ELEVATED PORTIONS OF WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT LOOKS TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...WITH FORCING ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING FROM A JET STREAK TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PROMPT A NICE
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO 7-8 C/KM. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO WHERE A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FEEDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. DEFORMATION AREA AND ASSOCIATED RAIN LOOK TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS. COOLER AIR SPILLING IN
ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW...ENHANCED BY ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSING FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH
ABOUT 750MB AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT UP THROUGH AN
INVERSION POSITIONED JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL...WITH NAM MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN GFS. NAM WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS SOME DRYING OCCURS IN
THE MID LEVELS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING RAIN MENTION AND STICK WITH
JUST CLOUDS BASED ON GFS/EURO...AS NAM SOMETIMES CARRIES A BIAS WITH
TOO MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY SOME CLOUD
COVER (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) AND NORTH FLOW...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REACH THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S.
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO WORK DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW PROGGED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DRIFT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
RESULT WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SOLID WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.

MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SOME CHANNELING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
TO SUPPORT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TOMORROW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT STILL 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M59 CORRIDOR. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM LOCAL TIME. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH
JUST MODEST RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS...ALONG WITH PONDING/STANDING
WATER IN NORMALLY PRONE LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...HLO/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020004
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
804 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.AVIATION...

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER IA/WI/IL WILL EJECT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE AND
PRECIPITATION EPISODE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAME TO FRUITION HERE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE CLOUD DECK FOR ALL AREAS HAS REMAINED OPAQUE. WARM ADVECTION AND
MASS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR LATE
EVENING WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIG HEIGHTS. THE OVERALL DURATION OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL MAY BE AROUND 6 TO 8 HOURS
IN LENGTH ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGES AT KFNT/KMBS...THERE WILL BE LESS RAIN BUT IFR/LIFR
AND DRIZZLE IS STILL EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT OVERCAST
ON MONDAY...BUT MODESTLY STRONGER ADVECTIONS OCCURING POST UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY SUPPORTS A MORE AGGRESSIVE EVOLUTION TO
MVFR/VFR HEIGHTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL LEAD BACK INTO IFR THIS
EVENING AS DEEP COLUMN SATURATION/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT LIFR GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT
OF AMBIENT MOISTURE. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL IN SUPPORT FOR MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 6-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE LAKES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE AREA.

UPPER LOW OVER NE/IA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT...OPENING AS IT BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH THE BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTER
LOOKING TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER OHIO. SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...ELEVATED PORTIONS OF WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT LOOKS TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...WITH FORCING ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING FROM A JET STREAK TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PROMPT A NICE
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO 7-8 C/KM. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO WHERE A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FEEDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. DEFORMATION AREA AND ASSOCIATED RAIN LOOK TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS. COOLER AIR SPILLING IN
ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW...ENHANCED BY ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSING FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH
ABOUT 750MB AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT UP THROUGH AN
INVERSION POSITIONED JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL...WITH NAM MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN GFS. NAM WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS SOME DRYING OCCURS IN
THE MID LEVELS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING RAIN MENTION AND STICK WITH
JUST CLOUDS BASED ON GFS/EURO...AS NAM SOMETIMES CARRIES A BIAS WITH
TOO MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY SOME CLOUD
COVER (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) AND NORTH FLOW...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REACH THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S.
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO WORK DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW PROGGED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DRIFT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
RESULT WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SOLID WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.

MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SOME CHANNELING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
TO SUPPORT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TOMORROW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT STILL 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M59 CORRIDOR. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM LOCAL TIME. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH
JUST MODEST RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS...ALONG WITH PONDING/STANDING
WATER IN NORMALLY PRONE LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...HLO/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 012350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
750 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE PUSHING THE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SKIES BY MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SKIES CLEARING A
LITTLE QUICKER AND TEMPERATURES FALLING A LITTLE FURTHER THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOWLY SETTLING TOWARD
FAR NW SUPERIOR. PRECIP IS DWINDLING WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON...
NOT MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES LEFT OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA IS SEEN OVER IOWA...
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THAT LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT
MOVES JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE FADES AWAY TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. MIGHT NEED A SPRINKLE MENTION IN THE LAST FEW DAYLIGHT
HOURS...DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP AFTER DUSK. UPSTREAM SHRA WILL
ROLL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS OF
NOW THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO MISS US TO THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR SE.

SYNOPTIC CLOUD COVER HAS EXITED WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES...WITH
LAKE BREEZE CU FIRING. THAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
INCOMING UPPER LOW/SHRA DOWNSTATE WILL HELP SUPPORT CLOUD COVER MUCH
LONGER IN NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: VERY "BLOCKY" PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH DECAYING NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION BEING
REPLACED BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRIVER OF
SUCH. DESPITE THIS BLOCKING...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE ONE THROUGH MIDWEEK...DRIVEN
IN LARGE PART BY PASSAGE OF ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DRUMMING UP SOME MORE SHOWER CONCERNS BY LATER TUESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDRESSING THOSE SHOWER CHANCES
(POSSIBLE THUNDER?) LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: NOT A BAD LOOKING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...ACTUAL CLOUD FORECAST REMAINS A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE
WITH HINTS OF 5KFT CENTERED SHALLOW CLOUD DECK FORMING DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS/NAM BUFFER PROGS SHOW
THIS...WITH SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE TUCKED UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ALL-THE-WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC. PER TRENDS...GOTTA BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW BASED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS WHERE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WILL CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IF
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE SCENARIO IS REALIZED...SKIES MAY TREND
MORE ON THE CLOUDY SIDE OF THINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMPLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WILL SURE HELP THE TEMPERATURE
CAUSE...WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY BREAKING THE 60 DEGREE MARK
(ALBEIT...ONLY BARELY).

CONTINUED DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF TUESDAY GIVES
WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATER IN THE DAY...AND
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THOSE EARLIER TALKED ABOUT BUILDING
WESTERN HEIGHTS FORCE A WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH AN ATTENDANT
WELL DEVELOPED COLD FRONT COLLOCATED NICELY WITH SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT. COOLING MID LEVELS SUPPORT SOME DECENT H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL
FORCING...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE ABOUT THE
ONLY COMPONENT LACKING...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING WILL SPIKE PWAT VALUES TO WELL OVER HALF AN INCH.
ABOVE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO...BUT DEFINITELY NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THAT IDEA TO INCLUDE A
SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. UNFORTUNATELY...SOME
LINGERING TIMING UNCERTAINTY WARRANTS WHAT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL BE
A MUCH TOO LONG MENTION OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. PER TRENDS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR SHOWER CHANCES TO BE RELEGATED TO A FEW HOUR
WINDOW...DIRECTLY TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. STILL
TIME TO WORK THOSE DETAILS OUT.

LINGERING SHOWER THREAT WEDNESDAY TIED TO INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH
MAINTENANCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS CENTER OF TROUGH AXIS
DROPS OVERHEAD. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXIT OF COLD
FRONT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SOME
IMPRESSIVE COOLING TIED TO THIS TROUGHING...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NOW
LOOKING TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...A GOOD TO 10 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN HIGHS
ON TUESDAY AND AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL.

EXTENDED...

AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP IN THE 500MB PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK....WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROUGHING OFF
THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. GUIDANCE SHOWS CUTOFF
LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGHS AS THE WHOLE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON THURSDAY. CLOSER TO EARTH...WE MAY SEE SOME
STRAGGLING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AFTER A WAVE
SLIDES DOWN AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND HEADS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT BIG RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUTS THE KIBOSH ON MOISTURE AND WE
TREND DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS COLLAPSING ON
SATURDAY...AND MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM
CANADA FOR MAYBE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY AGAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY. BUT HONESTLY...I
HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL COME FROM. WILL
LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS THAT BLENDED SOLUTIONS GIVE...SINCE IT`S SO
FAR OFF...BUT WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF WE SKIRT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO CLIMO IN THE EXTENDED..AND ACTUALLY
POP WARMER (HIGHS IN THE 70`S) FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA, AND IS CLEARING
OUT THE SKIES OVER THE REGION. WITH THAT THE NE TO N DRY FLOW OUT
OF THE SFC HIGH IS ERODING THE CLOUDS AND ALL CIGS ARE NOW VFR, AS
WELL AS THE VSBYS. THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, WILL BE EXPECTING THAT THE
COASTAL SITES (I.E. TVC, MBL, APN) WILL HAVE SOME SORT OF LAKE
BREEZE BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE LOOKING CLOSER AT THIS BEFORE THE
06Z ISSUANCE OR MAYBE SOONER.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. NE-ERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELLED EARLY...AND NO FURTHER HEADLINES SHOULD BE NEEDED THRU
THE START OF THE DAY TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MSB/KB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 012350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
750 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE PUSHING THE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SKIES BY MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SKIES CLEARING A
LITTLE QUICKER AND TEMPERATURES FALLING A LITTLE FURTHER THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOWLY SETTLING TOWARD
FAR NW SUPERIOR. PRECIP IS DWINDLING WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON...
NOT MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES LEFT OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA IS SEEN OVER IOWA...
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THAT LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT
MOVES JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE FADES AWAY TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. MIGHT NEED A SPRINKLE MENTION IN THE LAST FEW DAYLIGHT
HOURS...DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP AFTER DUSK. UPSTREAM SHRA WILL
ROLL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS OF
NOW THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO MISS US TO THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR SE.

SYNOPTIC CLOUD COVER HAS EXITED WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES...WITH
LAKE BREEZE CU FIRING. THAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
INCOMING UPPER LOW/SHRA DOWNSTATE WILL HELP SUPPORT CLOUD COVER MUCH
LONGER IN NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: VERY "BLOCKY" PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH DECAYING NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION BEING
REPLACED BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRIVER OF
SUCH. DESPITE THIS BLOCKING...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE ONE THROUGH MIDWEEK...DRIVEN
IN LARGE PART BY PASSAGE OF ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DRUMMING UP SOME MORE SHOWER CONCERNS BY LATER TUESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDRESSING THOSE SHOWER CHANCES
(POSSIBLE THUNDER?) LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: NOT A BAD LOOKING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...ACTUAL CLOUD FORECAST REMAINS A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE
WITH HINTS OF 5KFT CENTERED SHALLOW CLOUD DECK FORMING DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS/NAM BUFFER PROGS SHOW
THIS...WITH SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE TUCKED UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ALL-THE-WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC. PER TRENDS...GOTTA BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW BASED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS WHERE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WILL CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IF
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE SCENARIO IS REALIZED...SKIES MAY TREND
MORE ON THE CLOUDY SIDE OF THINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMPLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WILL SURE HELP THE TEMPERATURE
CAUSE...WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY BREAKING THE 60 DEGREE MARK
(ALBEIT...ONLY BARELY).

CONTINUED DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF TUESDAY GIVES
WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATER IN THE DAY...AND
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THOSE EARLIER TALKED ABOUT BUILDING
WESTERN HEIGHTS FORCE A WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH AN ATTENDANT
WELL DEVELOPED COLD FRONT COLLOCATED NICELY WITH SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT. COOLING MID LEVELS SUPPORT SOME DECENT H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL
FORCING...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE ABOUT THE
ONLY COMPONENT LACKING...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING WILL SPIKE PWAT VALUES TO WELL OVER HALF AN INCH.
ABOVE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO...BUT DEFINITELY NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THAT IDEA TO INCLUDE A
SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. UNFORTUNATELY...SOME
LINGERING TIMING UNCERTAINTY WARRANTS WHAT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL BE
A MUCH TOO LONG MENTION OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. PER TRENDS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR SHOWER CHANCES TO BE RELEGATED TO A FEW HOUR
WINDOW...DIRECTLY TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. STILL
TIME TO WORK THOSE DETAILS OUT.

LINGERING SHOWER THREAT WEDNESDAY TIED TO INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH
MAINTENANCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS CENTER OF TROUGH AXIS
DROPS OVERHEAD. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXIT OF COLD
FRONT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SOME
IMPRESSIVE COOLING TIED TO THIS TROUGHING...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NOW
LOOKING TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...A GOOD TO 10 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN HIGHS
ON TUESDAY AND AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL.

EXTENDED...

AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP IN THE 500MB PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK....WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROUGHING OFF
THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. GUIDANCE SHOWS CUTOFF
LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGHS AS THE WHOLE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON THURSDAY. CLOSER TO EARTH...WE MAY SEE SOME
STRAGGLING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AFTER A WAVE
SLIDES DOWN AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND HEADS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT BIG RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUTS THE KIBOSH ON MOISTURE AND WE
TREND DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS COLLAPSING ON
SATURDAY...AND MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM
CANADA FOR MAYBE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY AGAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY. BUT HONESTLY...I
HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL COME FROM. WILL
LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS THAT BLENDED SOLUTIONS GIVE...SINCE IT`S SO
FAR OFF...BUT WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF WE SKIRT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO CLIMO IN THE EXTENDED..AND ACTUALLY
POP WARMER (HIGHS IN THE 70`S) FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA, AND IS CLEARING
OUT THE SKIES OVER THE REGION. WITH THAT THE NE TO N DRY FLOW OUT
OF THE SFC HIGH IS ERODING THE CLOUDS AND ALL CIGS ARE NOW VFR, AS
WELL AS THE VSBYS. THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, WILL BE EXPECTING THAT THE
COASTAL SITES (I.E. TVC, MBL, APN) WILL HAVE SOME SORT OF LAKE
BREEZE BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE LOOKING CLOSER AT THIS BEFORE THE
06Z ISSUANCE OR MAYBE SOONER.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. NE-ERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELLED EARLY...AND NO FURTHER HEADLINES SHOULD BE NEEDED THRU
THE START OF THE DAY TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MSB/KB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JZ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 012333
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
733 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AIR DOWN
FROM CANADA IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AROUND 60...BUT WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FROM I-96 SOUTHWARD. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE TOWARDS I-94 WHERE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH
IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. CONSIDERED ADDING A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY IS REALLY WEAK...ON THE ORDER OF A 100
J/KG. LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH POTENTIALLY
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT.
LEFT THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL GIVEN A LITTLE BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. 850MB LI/S GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW DOES NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP THE PCPN IN PLACE...SO I HAVE INCREASED
POPS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A COOL DAY HOLDING IN THE 50S.  THE
SYSTEM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST...SO SOME AREAS
WILL STILL SEE RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.  MODEL TRENDS ARE MUCH WARMER AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES IN AS THE PATTERN APPEARS MORE AMPLIFIED.  SOLID
WARM ADVECTION STARTS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH
SUNSHINE. H8 TEMPS JUMP TO AROUND +12C BY SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP
TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 70S. SOME TIMING ISSUES IN THE MODELS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT AS IT APPEARS NOW WE SHOULD SEE A COLD FRONT COME
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THIS
SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR ALL BUT KGRR AND KMKG AT
THIS TIME. WITH MORE RAIN MOVING IN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
KGRR...THE THOUGHT IS THAT THE IFR WILL CONTINUE. CONDITIONS
COULD TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO MVFR...BUT WITH INCREASING SURFACE
HUMIDITY...THAT SHOULD ACT TO HOLD THE LOWER CLOUDS IN. AS FOR THE
THUNDER RISK TONIGHT...THE INSTABILITY IS FORECASTED TO STAY JUST
SOUTH OF KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN...SO I DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN
THE TAFS.

AS FOR MONDAY...CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO IMPROVE. THE RAIN
PULLS AWAY EARLY...BUT WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND...THE MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE TIL THE AFTERNOON
FOR ALL SITES IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TO IMPROVE TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BUILD INTO MID WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS... BUT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER GRAND BASIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KMQT 012326
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
726 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.

MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THROUGH THE WEEK...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING
AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL IN
TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN N AMERICA WITH THE TROF REACHING PEAK
AMPLITUDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY
APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER SW CONUS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW LATER THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKING WRN CANADA RIDGE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED
TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE/WED WITH COLD
FROPA OCCURRING TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS FROPA BRINGS THE BEST CHC OF
PCPN THIS WEEK. WITH DECENT FORCING...POPS AT LEAST INTO THE HIGH
CHC TO LOW LIKELY CATEGORY APPEAR REASONABLE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING.
DECENT FORCING/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID LEVEL TROF
BECOMES...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER INTO WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
RUNS YESTERDAY TRENDED TOWARD MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO UPPER MI TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN ON WED. SINCE THEN...
GUIDANCE HAS WAIVERED ON THIS IDEA. WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS FCST IN SHOWING SCHC POPS (CHC ACROSS THE NCNTRL AND
E) INTO WED MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY PCPN...MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS THERMAL TROF WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-4C WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. 00Z/12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WRN CANADA RIDGE WILL PASS
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THIS A NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE 12Z RUNS BACK UP THE POSSIBILITY. AS A RESULT..SCHC
TO LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SAT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE PATTERN THIS WEEK FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR UPPER MI ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS. NIGHTTIME MINS WILL
STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR ON AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. TUE WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES IN
THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT/CLOUD COVER AND SHRA...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED
UNDER BRISK N WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 40F. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA...
FURTHER SUPPORTING COOL CONDITIONS. MODERATION WILL OCCUR THU WITH
MORE WARMING FRI AND POSSIBLY ON INTO SAT...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. RECENT
GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED THAT FRI AND/OR SAT COULD BE QUITE
WARM WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. WILL TURN COOLER AGAIN
FOR SUN. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...NAEFS OUTLOOKS ARE SUGGESTING A
TREND TOWARD AN OVERALL SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMP REGIME DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

EVEN IF MOST AREAS SEE SOME PCPN TUE...AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT
AND WON`T REALLY AFFECT WHAT IS BECOMING AN EXTENDED DRY SPELL FOR
UPPER MI. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY COOL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT...WILL KEEP GREENUP SLOW. THUS...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT
TIMES FOR THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. THIS WEEK...TUE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH POTENTIAL OF
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS/-SHRA ARRIVE SOONER...FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE EASED. IF THE
COLD FRONT MATERIALIZES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL OCCUR ON THE DAY PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE OR THE
DAY OF FROPA...EITHER FRI OR SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 012030
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
430 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.

MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THROUGH THE WEEK...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING
AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL IN
TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN N AMERICA WITH THE TROF REACHING PEAK
AMPLITUDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY
APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER SW CONUS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW LATER THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKING WRN CANADA RIDGE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED
TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE/WED WITH COLD
FROPA OCCURRING TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS FROPA BRINGS THE BEST CHC OF
PCPN THIS WEEK. WITH DECENT FORCING...POPS AT LEAST INTO THE HIGH
CHC TO LOW LIKELY CATEGORY APPEAR REASONABLE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING.
DECENT FORCING/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID LEVEL TROF
BECOMES...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER INTO WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
RUNS YESTERDAY TRENDED TOWARD MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO UPPER MI TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN ON WED. SINCE THEN...
GUIDANCE HAS WAIVERED ON THIS IDEA. WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS FCST IN SHOWING SCHC POPS (CHC ACROSS THE NCNTRL AND
E) INTO WED MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY PCPN...MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS THERMAL TROF WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-4C WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. 00Z/12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WRN CANADA RIDGE WILL PASS
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THIS A NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE 12Z RUNS BACK UP THE POSSIBILITY. AS A RESULT..SCHC
TO LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SAT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE PATTERN THIS WEEK FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR UPPER MI ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS. NIGHTTIME MINS WILL
STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR ON AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. TUE WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES IN
THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT/CLOUD COVER AND SHRA...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED
UNDER BRISK N WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 40F. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA...
FURTHER SUPPORTING COOL CONDITIONS. MODERATION WILL OCCUR THU WITH
MORE WARMING FRI AND POSSIBLY ON INTO SAT...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. RECENT
GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED THAT FRI AND/OR SAT COULD BE QUITE
WARM WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. WILL TURN COOLER AGAIN
FOR SUN. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...NAEFS OUTLOOKS ARE SUGGESTING A
TREND TOWARD AN OVERALL SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMP REGIME DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

EVEN IF MOST AREAS SEE SOME PCPN TUE...AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT
AND WON`T REALLY AFFECT WHAT IS BECOMING AN EXTENDED DRY SPELL FOR
UPPER MI. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY COOL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT...WILL KEEP GREENUP SLOW. THUS...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT
TIMES FOR THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. THIS WEEK...TUE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH POTENTIAL OF
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS/-SHRA ARRIVE SOONER...FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE EASED. IF THE
COLD FRONT MATERIALIZES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL OCCUR ON THE DAY PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE OR THE
DAY OF FROPA...EITHER FRI OR SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KGRR 012012
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AIR DOWN
FROM CANADA IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AROUND 60...BUT WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FROM I-96 SOUTHWARD. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE TOWARDS I-94 WHERE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH
IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. CONSIDERED ADDING A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY IS REALLY WEAK...ON THE ORDER OF A 100
J/KG. LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH POTENTIALLY
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT.
LEFT THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL GIVEN A LITTLE BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. 850MB LI/S GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW DOES NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP THE PCPN IN PLACE...SO I HAVE INCREASED
POPS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A COOL DAY HOLDING IN THE 50S.  THE
SYSTEM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST...SO SOME AREAS
WILL STILL SEE RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.  MODEL TRENDS ARE MUCH WARMER AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES IN AS THE PATTERN APPEARS MORE AMPLIFIED.  SOLID
WARM ADVECTION STARTS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH
SUNSHINE. H8 TEMPS JUMP TO AROUND +12C BY SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP
TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 70S. SOME TIMING ISSUES IN THE MODELS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT AS IT APPEARS NOW WE SHOULD SEE A COLD FRONT COME
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THIS
SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL RANGES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINED UNDER IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ITS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR DEVELOP...WHILE
SOME SITES MAY REMAIN IFR.

LATER THIS EVENING ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD LARGELY AFFECT THE I-94 AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE I-94 TAF SITES IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE I-96 SHOULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE IFR. FOR NOW HAVE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TAFS MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THIS IS A CLOSE CALL.

AS WE WORK THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING HOURS WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY MOVE IN. EXPECT THE I-94 IFR TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING OR TOWARD NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BUILD INTO MID WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS... BUT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER GRAND BASIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KMQT 012011
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.

MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY...A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP
INLAND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTHS
AND HIGH BASES SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FORMATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SSE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING LEFT EXIT
OF AN UPPER JET WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN PLAYER FOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA...ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS DIURNAL ASSISTANCE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO NUMEROUS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ANY DECENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT A FEW RUMBLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY HAS ALSO HAD THE FOCUS OF FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. BY THEN...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE HAD A WEEK OF DRYING SINCE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY LAST WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS TEMPS
INTO THE 60S INLAND AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20MPH LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST WOULD BE AN EARLY ARRIVAL
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. THE SECOND IS AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING. THEN...WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH LATE WED NIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS AND N TO NW WINDS FAVOR A CHILLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
UPPER MI...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY FAILING TO REACH 40 EAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY WHILE THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MERGES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO FORM DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS...WITH POSSIBLY
SOME CLOUD COVER EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...- NONE -
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...- NONE -




000
FXUS63 KAPX 011944
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOWLY SETTLING TOWARD
FAR NW SUPERIOR. PRECIP IS DWINDLING WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON...
NOT MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES LEFT OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA IS SEEN OVER IOWA...
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THAT LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT
MOVES JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE FADES AWAY TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. MIGHT NEED A SPRINKLE MENTION IN THE LAST FEW DAYLIGHT
HOURS...DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP AFTER DUSK. UPSTREAM SHRA WILL
ROLL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS OF
NOW THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO MISS US TO THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR SE.

SYNOPTIC CLOUD COVER HAS EXITED WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES...WITH
LAKE BREEZE CU FIRING. THAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
INCOMING UPPER LOW/SHRA DOWNSTATE WILL HELP SUPPORT CLOUD COVER MUCH
LONGER IN NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: VERY "BLOCKY" PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH DECAYING NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION BEING
REPLACED BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRIVER OF
SUCH. DESPITE THIS BLOCKING...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE ONE THROUGH MIDWEEK...DRIVEN
IN LARGE PART BY PASSAGE OF ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DRUMMING UP SOME MORE SHOWER CONCERNS BY LATER TUESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDRESSING THOSE SHOWER CHANCES
(POSSIBLE THUNDER?) LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: NOT A BAD LOOKING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...ACTUAL CLOUD FORECAST REMAINS A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE
WITH HINTS OF 5KFT CENTERED SHALLOW CLOUD DECK FORMING DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS/NAM BUFFER PROGS SHOW
THIS...WITH SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE TUCKED UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ALL-THE-WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC. PER TRENDS...GOTTA BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW BASED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS WHERE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WILL CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IF
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE SCENARIO IS REALIZED...SKIES MAY TREND
MORE ON THE CLOUDY SIDE OF THINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMPLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WILL SURE HELP THE TEMPERATURE
CAUSE...WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY BREAKING THE 60 DEGREE MARK
(ALBEIT...ONLY BARELY).

CONTINUED DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF TUESDAY GIVES
WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATER IN THE DAY...AND
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THOSE EARLIER TALKED ABOUT BUILDING
WESTERN HEIGHTS FORCE A WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH AN ATTENDANT
WELL DEVELOPED COLD FRONT COLLOCATED NICELY WITH SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT. COOLING MID LEVELS SUPPORT SOME DECENT H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL
FORCING...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE ABOUT THE
ONLY COMPONENT LACKING...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING WILL SPIKE PWAT VALUES TO WELL OVER HALF AN INCH.
ABOVE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO...BUT DEFINITELY NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THAT IDEA TO INCLUDE A
SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. UNFORTUNATELY...SOME
LINGERING TIMING UNCERTAINTY WARRANTS WHAT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL BE
A MUCH TOO LONG MENTION OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. PER TRENDS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR SHOWER CHANCES TO BE RELEGATED TO A FEW HOUR
WINDOW...DIRECTLY TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. STILL
TIME TO WORK THOSE DETAILS OUT.

LINGERING SHOWER THREAT WEDNESDAY TIED TO INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH
MAINTENANCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS CENTER OF TROUGH AXIS
DROPS OVERHEAD. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXIT OF COLD
FRONT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SOME
IMPRESSIVE COOLING TIED TO THIS TROUGHING...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NOW
LOOKING TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...A GOOD TO 10 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN HIGHS
ON TUESDAY AND AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL.

EXTENDED...

AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP IN THE 500MB PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK....WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROUGHING OFF
THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. GUIDANCE SHOWS CUTOFF
LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGHS AS THE WHOLE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON THURSDAY. CLOSER TO EARTH...WE MAY SEE SOME
STRAGGLING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AFTER A WAVE
SLIDES DOWN AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND HEADS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT BIG RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUTS THE KIBOSH ON MOISTURE AND WE
TREND DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS COLLAPSING ON
SATURDAY...AND MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM
CANADA FOR MAYBE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY AGAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY. BUT HONESTLY...I
HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL COME FROM. WILL
LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS THAT BLENDED SOLUTIONS GIVE...SINCE IT`S SO
FAR OFF...BUT WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF WE SKIRT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO CLIMO IN THE EXTENDED..AND ACTUALLY
POP WARMER (HIGHS IN THE 70`S) FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAINLY VFR. -RA ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR BY MONDAY MORNING. -RA
WILL END THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS WILL TEND TO CLEAR LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY AT ALL SITES
BUT PLN. BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR MORE COMMON.

A NE TO N BREEZE THRU THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. NE-ERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELLED EARLY...AND NO FURTHER HEADLINES SHOULD BE NEEDED THRU
THE START OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MSB/KB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ




000
FXUS63 KDTX 011934
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
334 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE LAKES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE AREA.

UPPER LOW OVER NE/IA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT...OPENING AS IT BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH THE BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTER
LOOKING TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER OHIO. SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...ELEVATED PORTIONS OF WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT LOOKS TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...WITH FORCING ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING FROM A JET STREAK TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PROMPT A NICE
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO 7-8 C/KM. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO WHERE A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FEEDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. DEFORMATION AREA AND ASSOCIATED RAIN LOOK TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS. COOLER AIR SPILLING IN
ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW...ENHANCED BY ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSING FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH
ABOUT 750MB AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT UP THROUGH AN
INVERSION POSITIONED JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL...WITH NAM MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN GFS. NAM WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS SOME DRYING OCCURS IN
THE MID LEVELS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING RAIN MENTION AND STICK WITH
JUST CLOUDS BASED ON GFS/EURO...AS NAM SOMETIMES CARRIES A BIAS WITH
TOO MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY SOME CLOUD
COVER (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) AND NORTH FLOW...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REACH THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S.
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO WORK DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW PROGGED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DRIFT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
RESULT WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SOLID WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SOME CHANNELING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
TO SUPPORT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TOMORROW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT STILL 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M59 CORRIDOR. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM LOCAL TIME. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH
JUST MODEST RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS...ALONG WITH PONDING/STANDING
WATER IN NORMALLY PRONE LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 102 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LOCKED INTO TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY IN THE
IN IFR RANGE FOR MAJORITY OF TIME PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...BUT PERIOD OF LOW MVFR EARLY THIS EVENING STILL FORECASTED
BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SPREADS IN LATE THIS EVENING...SENDING
CEILINGS/VSBYS BACK INTO THE BORDERLINE IFR/LIFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.
BACK INTO MVFR RANGE TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE MBS WITH THE BETTER AVIATION CONDITIONS...AS
THE NORTHERN RAIN SHIELD MAY MISS THE TERMINAL TONIGHT ALL
TOGETHER....WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...
LOW CLOUDS (IFR) HAVE DIFFICULT TIME BEING DISLODGED...BUT STILL
WILL HOLD ONTO A PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT BATCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AROUND/BY MIDNIGHT...QUICKLY SENDING CONDITIONS BACK INTO IFR/BORDERLINE
LIFR 6-12Z. SLOW DRYING OCCURRING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...LIFTING
CEILINGS BACK INTO MVFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY DAY`S
END.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 5-12Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HLO/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 011930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AIR DOWN
FROM CANADA IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AROUND 60...BUT WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FROM I-96 SOUTHWARD. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE TOWARDS I-94 WHERE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH
IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. CONSIDERED ADDING A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY IS REALLY WEAK...ON THE ORDER OF A 100
J/KG. LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH POTENTIALLY
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT.
LEFT THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL GIVEN A LITTLE BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. 850MB LI/S GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINED UNDER IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ITS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR DEVELOP...WHILE
SOME SITES MAY REMAIN IFR.

LATER THIS EVENING ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD LARGELY AFFECT THE I-94 AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE I-94 TAF SITES IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE I-96 SHOULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE IFR. FOR NOW HAVE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TAFS MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THIS IS A CLOSE CALL.

AS WE WORK THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING HOURS WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY MOVE IN. EXPECT THE I-94 IFR TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING OR TOWARD NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BUILD INTO MID WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS... BUT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER GRAND BASIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 011805
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WE/LL SEE A
DECREASING PRECIPITATION TREND TODAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S. MILD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IL/IN MOVING EAST. MUCH
OF THE PCPN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA.
WE/VE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE DAY BUT ADDED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS BUFKIT OMEGA PROFILES SHOWED SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AND WE/LL SEE SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS SHORT WAVE IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM AND WILL BE
GONE BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PROVIDE FOR QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE.

TODAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... WITH THE BULK OF
SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND -3C AIR AT H8 POURING IN ON THE HEELS OF
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN
THE 50S WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPR LOW
AFTER THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVE
EAST.

THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING
ALOFT. SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR... CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WHICH WILL BE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY TURN THE CORNER TOWARD WARMER WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMING ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST... LEADING TO TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS 70-
75 NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINED UNDER IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ITS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR DEVELOP...WHILE
SOME SITES MAY REMAIN IFR.

LATER THIS EVENING ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD LARGELY AFFECT THE I-94 AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE I-94 TAF SITES IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE I-96 SHOULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE IFR. FOR NOW HAVE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TAFS MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THIS IS A CLOSE CALL.

AS WE WORK THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING HOURS WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY MOVE IN. EXPECT THE I-94 IFR TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING OR TOWARD NOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES
TODAY...HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE 5 MILE POINT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS... BUT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER GRAND BASIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 011805
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WE/LL SEE A
DECREASING PRECIPITATION TREND TODAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S. MILD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IL/IN MOVING EAST. MUCH
OF THE PCPN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA.
WE/VE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE DAY BUT ADDED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS BUFKIT OMEGA PROFILES SHOWED SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AND WE/LL SEE SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS SHORT WAVE IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM AND WILL BE
GONE BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PROVIDE FOR QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE.

TODAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... WITH THE BULK OF
SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND -3C AIR AT H8 POURING IN ON THE HEELS OF
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN
THE 50S WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPR LOW
AFTER THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVE
EAST.

THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING
ALOFT. SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR... CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WHICH WILL BE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY TURN THE CORNER TOWARD WARMER WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMING ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST... LEADING TO TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS 70-
75 NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINED UNDER IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ITS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR DEVELOP...WHILE
SOME SITES MAY REMAIN IFR.

LATER THIS EVENING ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD LARGELY AFFECT THE I-94 AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE I-94 TAF SITES IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE I-96 SHOULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE IFR. FOR NOW HAVE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TAFS MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THIS IS A CLOSE CALL.

AS WE WORK THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING HOURS WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY MOVE IN. EXPECT THE I-94 IFR TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING OR TOWARD NOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES
TODAY...HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE 5 MILE POINT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS... BUT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER GRAND BASIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 011753
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WE/LL SEE A
DECREASING PRECIPITATION TREND TODAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S. MILD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IL/IN MOVING EAST. MUCH
OF THE PCPN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA.
WE/VE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE DAY BUT ADDED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS BUFKIT OMEGA PROFILES SHOWED SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AND WE/LL SEE SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS SHORT WAVE IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM AND WILL BE
GONE BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PROVIDE FOR QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE.

TODAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... WITH THE BULK OF
SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND -3C AIR AT H8 POURING IN ON THE HEELS OF
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN
THE 50S WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPR LOW
AFTER THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVE
EAST.

THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING
ALOFT. SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR... CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WHICH WILL BE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY TURN THE CORNER TOWARD WARMER WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMING ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST... LEADING TO TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS 70-
75 NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINED UNDER IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ITS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR DEVELOP...WHILE
SOME SITES MAY REMAIN IFR.

LATER THIS EVENING ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD LARGELY AFFECT THE I-94 AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE I-94 TAF SITES IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE I-96 SHOULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE IFR. FOR NOW HAVE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TAFS MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THIS IS A CLOSE CALL.

AS WE WORK THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING HOURS WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY MOVE IN. EXPECT THE I-94 IFR TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING OR TOWARD NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES
TODAY...HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE 5 MILE POINT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 011753
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WE/LL SEE A
DECREASING PRECIPITATION TREND TODAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S. MILD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IL/IN MOVING EAST. MUCH
OF THE PCPN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA.
WE/VE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE DAY BUT ADDED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS BUFKIT OMEGA PROFILES SHOWED SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AND WE/LL SEE SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS SHORT WAVE IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM AND WILL BE
GONE BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PROVIDE FOR QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE.

TODAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... WITH THE BULK OF
SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND -3C AIR AT H8 POURING IN ON THE HEELS OF
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN
THE 50S WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPR LOW
AFTER THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVE
EAST.

THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING
ALOFT. SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR... CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WHICH WILL BE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY TURN THE CORNER TOWARD WARMER WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMING ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST... LEADING TO TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS 70-
75 NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINED UNDER IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ITS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR DEVELOP...WHILE
SOME SITES MAY REMAIN IFR.

LATER THIS EVENING ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD LARGELY AFFECT THE I-94 AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE I-94 TAF SITES IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE I-96 SHOULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE IFR. FOR NOW HAVE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TAFS MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THIS IS A CLOSE CALL.

AS WE WORK THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING HOURS WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY MOVE IN. EXPECT THE I-94 IFR TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING OR TOWARD NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES
TODAY...HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE 5 MILE POINT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KAPX 011747
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
147 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NORTH EDGE OF -RA SWATH SITS A BIT NORTH OF TVC AND ROGERS. HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTING POPS AND PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROCEEDS.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DIMINISHING TREND IN EASTERN WI AND CENTRAL
LAKE MI...AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SLOWLY FILLS. ANTICIPATE
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E FROM MIDDAY THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOME THIN
SPOTS IN THE CLOUD COVER IN EASTERN UPPER MI...WILL SEE MORE OF
THAT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALREADY NEAR OR PAST 50F IN EASTERN
UPPER...THAT WILL BE THE WARMEST PLACE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
(HIGHS PUSHING 60F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED NORTH OF THE US
/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SLOWLY PUSHING
EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...PRODUCING AREAS OF CONVECTION. HEART OF
THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
REACHED THE APPALACHIANS...NEVER REALLY REACHING INTO MICHIGAN. DRY
NE FLOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO ERODE THE NRN EDGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD NOW TRYING TO MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS
INTO OUR CWA. SOME SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND HERE AT THE
OFFICE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP SO FAR.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW SUITE...BUT WILL MAKE
A FINAL PUSH NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING BEFORE RETREATING SE WITH
THE DEPARTING LOW. NRN EXTENT SHOULD BE MAINLY ALONG M-32...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. WITH PERSISTENT DRY
NE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE NOW WELL EAST OF MICHIGAN...QPF AND
PRECIP INTENSITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS WILL WIND SPEEDS...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

(5/2)MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,
FORCING THE MOISTURE WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH ON
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AT 500 MB, THE LOW BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
HUDSON BAY AS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE NIGHT AS THE 700-
500 MB LAYER RH REMAIN < 30% AND A SFC RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z/TUE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH.

(5/3)TUESDAY...MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER A BIT MORE ON THIS TIME
PERIOD, BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS
SWINGING RAIN INTO N LOWER ABOUT 2-3 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
DURING THE NIGHT, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
REGION AS THE 500 MB LOW SWINGS INTO E UPPER AND THE SFC LOW PUSHES
THROUGH N LOWER AND N LAKE HURON.

EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVER THE CONUS, AN OMEGA
BLOCK WITH THE CENTER (500 MB RIDGE AXIS) OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
THE TWO CUT OFF LOWS, ONE OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, ON WEDNESDAY. THE BLOCK SLOWLY MOVES, OR AT LEAST
THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MOVES, TO THE EAST SOMEWHAT SO THAT BY
FRIDAY, THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW WOULD BE OVER THE EAST
COAST, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAINLY VFR. -RA ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR BY MONDAY MORNING. -RA
WILL END THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS WILL TEND TO CLEAR LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY AT ALL SITES
BUT PLN. BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR MORE COMMON.

A NE TO N BREEZE THRU THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR NRN LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREA AROUND
AND SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST
COAST.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KMQT 011729
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
129 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND COLUMN MOISTENING ON PERIPHERY OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING E THROUGH THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH MODERATE
700-600 MB FGEN IN RESPONSE TO COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE OVER AREA
HAS SUPPORTED SOME SCT -SHRA OVER NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THESE SHOWERS WILL STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AS FORCING WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.

MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON PERIPHERY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
GRADUALLY THIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
UNDER A COOL NE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F OVER
THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF....TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY...A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP
INLAND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTHS
AND HIGH BASES SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FORMATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SSE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING LEFT EXIT
OF AN UPPER JET WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN PLAYER FOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA...ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS DIURNAL ASSISTANCE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO NUMEROUS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ANY DECENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT A FEW RUMBLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY HAS ALSO HAD THE FOCUS OF FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. BY THEN...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE HAD A WEEK OF DRYING SINCE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY LAST WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS TEMPS
INTO THE 60S INLAND AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20MPH LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST WOULD BE AN EARLY ARRIVAL
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. THE SECOND IS AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING. THEN...WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH LATE WED NIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS AND N TO NW WINDS FAVOR A CHILLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
UPPER MI...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY FAILING TO REACH 40 EAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY WHILE THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MERGES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO FORM DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS...WITH POSSIBLY
SOME CLOUD COVER EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 011729
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
129 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND COLUMN MOISTENING ON PERIPHERY OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING E THROUGH THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH MODERATE
700-600 MB FGEN IN RESPONSE TO COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE OVER AREA
HAS SUPPORTED SOME SCT -SHRA OVER NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THESE SHOWERS WILL STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AS FORCING WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.

MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON PERIPHERY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
GRADUALLY THIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
UNDER A COOL NE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F OVER
THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF....TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY...A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP
INLAND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTHS
AND HIGH BASES SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FORMATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SSE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING LEFT EXIT
OF AN UPPER JET WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN PLAYER FOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA...ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS DIURNAL ASSISTANCE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO NUMEROUS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ANY DECENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT A FEW RUMBLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY HAS ALSO HAD THE FOCUS OF FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. BY THEN...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE HAD A WEEK OF DRYING SINCE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY LAST WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS TEMPS
INTO THE 60S INLAND AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20MPH LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST WOULD BE AN EARLY ARRIVAL
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. THE SECOND IS AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING. THEN...WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH LATE WED NIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS AND N TO NW WINDS FAVOR A CHILLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
UPPER MI...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY FAILING TO REACH 40 EAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY WHILE THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MERGES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO FORM DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS...WITH POSSIBLY
SOME CLOUD COVER EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KDTX 011702
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
102 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LOCKED INTO TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY IN THE
IN IFR RANGE FOR MAJORITY OF TIME PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...BUT PERIOD OF LOW MVFR EARLY THIS EVENING STILL FORECASTED
BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SPREADS IN LATE THIS EVENING...SENDING
CEILINGS/VSBYS BACK INTO THE BORDERLINE IFR/LIFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.
BACK INTO MVFR RANGE TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE MBS WITH THE BETTER AVIATION CONDITIONS...AS
THE NORTHERN RAIN SHIELD MAY MISS THE TERMINAL TONIGHT ALL
TOGETHER....WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...
LOW CLOUDS (IFR) HAVE DIFFICULT TIME BEING DISLODGED...BUT STILL
WILL HOLD ONTO A PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT BATCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AROUND/BY MIDNIGHT...QUICKLY SENDING CONDITIONS BACK INTO IFR/BORDERLINE
LIFR 6-12Z. SLOW DRYING OCCURRING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...LIFTING
CEILINGS BACK INTO MVFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY DAY`S
END.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 5-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST
3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD
OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN
AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/
TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH.  CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/.

TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW
PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE
UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH.

NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.  LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME.  ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BY EARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 011702
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
102 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LOCKED INTO TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY IN THE
IN IFR RANGE FOR MAJORITY OF TIME PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...BUT PERIOD OF LOW MVFR EARLY THIS EVENING STILL FORECASTED
BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SPREADS IN LATE THIS EVENING...SENDING
CEILINGS/VSBYS BACK INTO THE BORDERLINE IFR/LIFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.
BACK INTO MVFR RANGE TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE MBS WITH THE BETTER AVIATION CONDITIONS...AS
THE NORTHERN RAIN SHIELD MAY MISS THE TERMINAL TONIGHT ALL
TOGETHER....WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...
LOW CLOUDS (IFR) HAVE DIFFICULT TIME BEING DISLODGED...BUT STILL
WILL HOLD ONTO A PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT BATCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AROUND/BY MIDNIGHT...QUICKLY SENDING CONDITIONS BACK INTO IFR/BORDERLINE
LIFR 6-12Z. SLOW DRYING OCCURRING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...LIFTING
CEILINGS BACK INTO MVFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY DAY`S
END.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 5-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST
3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD
OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN
AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/
TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH.  CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/.

TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW
PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE
UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH.

NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.  LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME.  ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BY EARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 011428
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1028 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NORTH EDGE OF -RA SWATH SITS A BIT NORTH OF TVC AND ROGERS. HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTING POPS AND PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROCEEDS.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DIMINISHING TREND IN EASTERN WI AND CENTRAL
LAKE MI...AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SLOWLY FILLS. ANTICIPATE
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E FROM MIDDAY THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOME THIN
SPOTS IN THE CLOUD COVER IN EASTERN UPPER MI...WILL SEE MORE OF
THAT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALREADY NEAR OR PAST 50F IN EASTERN
UPPER...THAT WILL BE THE WARMEST PLACE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
(HIGHS PUSHING 60F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED NORTH OF THE US
/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SLOWLY PUSHING
EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...PRODUCING AREAS OF CONVECTION. HEART OF
THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
REACHED THE APPALACHIANS...NEVER REALLY REACHING INTO MICHIGAN. DRY
NE FLOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO ERODE THE NRN EDGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD NOW TRYING TO MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS
INTO OUR CWA. SOME SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND HERE AT THE
OFFICE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP SO FAR.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW SUITE...BUT WILL MAKE
A FINAL PUSH NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING BEFORE RETREATING SE WITH
THE DEPARTING LOW. NRN EXTENT SHOULD BE MAINLY ALONG M-32...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. WITH PERSISTENT DRY
NE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE NOW WELL EAST OF MICHIGAN...QPF AND
PRECIP INTENSITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS WILL WIND SPEEDS...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

(5/2)MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,
FORCING THE MOISTURE WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH ON
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AT 500 MB, THE LOW BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
HUDSON BAY AS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE NIGHT AS THE 700-
500 MB LAYER RH REMAIN < 30% AND A SFC RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z/TUE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH.

(5/3)TUESDAY...MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER A BIT MORE ON THIS TIME
PERIOD, BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS
SWINGING RAIN INTO N LOWER ABOUT 2-3 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
DURING THE NIGHT, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
REGION AS THE 500 MB LOW SWINGS INTO E UPPER AND THE SFC LOW PUSHES
THROUGH N LOWER AND N LAKE HURON.

EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVER THE CONUS, AN OMEGA
BLOCK WITH THE CENTER (500 MB RIDGE AXIS) OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
THE TWO CUT OFF LOWS, ONE OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, ON WEDNESDAY. THE BLOCK SLOWLY MOVES, OR AT LEAST
THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MOVES, TO THE EAST SOMEWHAT SO THAT BY
FRIDAY, THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW WOULD BE OVER THE EAST
COAST, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DESPITE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-32 (APN/TVC/MBL). RAIN SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP VSBYS VFR. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR NRN LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREA AROUND
AND SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST
COAST.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KGRR 011150
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WE/LL SEE A DECREASING PRECIPITATION TREND
TODAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 50S. MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IL/IN MOVING EAST. MUCH
OF THE PCPN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA.
WE/VE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE DAY BUT ADDED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS BUFKIT OMEGA PROFILES SHOWED SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AND WE/LL SEE SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS SHORT WAVE IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM AND WILL BE
GONE BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PROVIDE FOR QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE.

TODAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... WITH THE BULK OF
SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND -3C AIR AT H8 POURING IN ON THE HEELS OF
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN
THE 50S WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPR LOW
AFTER THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVE
EAST.

THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING
ALOFT. SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR... CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WHICH WILL BE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY TURN THE CORNER TOWARD WARMER WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMING ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST... LEADING TO TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS 70-
75 NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT
AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST REDUCING SFC VSBYS TO 1-3 MILES. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBYS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINING IFR TO MVFR.

CONDITIONS LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
SLUG OF RAIN IMPACTS SRN LWR MI. LIFR MOST LIKELY AT AZO/BTL/JXN.

MKG MAY HAVE HIGHER CIGS/VSBYS THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS TODAY DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW... AND TONIGHT SINCE THEY
ARE ONLY CLIPPED BY THE NRN FRINGE OF THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES
TODAY...HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE 5 MILE POINT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KMQT 011133
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND COLUMN MOISTENING ON PERIPHERY OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING E THROUGH THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH MODERATE
700-600 MB FGEN IN RESPONSE TO COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE OVER AREA
HAS SUPPORTED SOME SCT -SHRA OVER NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THESE SHOWERS WILL STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AS FORCING WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.

MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON PERIPHERY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
GRADUALLY THIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
UNDER A COOL NE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F OVER
THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF....TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY...A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP
INLAND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTHS
AND HIGH BASES SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FORMATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SSE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING LEFT EXIT
OF AN UPPER JET WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN PLAYER FOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA...ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS DIURNAL ASSISTANCE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO NUMEROUS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ANY DECENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT A FEW RUMBLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY HAS ALSO HAD THE FOCUS OF FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. BY THEN...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE HAD A WEEK OF DRYING SINCE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY LAST WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS TEMPS
INTO THE 60S INLAND AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20MPH LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST WOULD BE AN EARLY ARRIVAL
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. THE SECOND IS AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING. THEN...WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH LATE WED NIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS AND N TO NW WINDS FAVOR A CHILLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
UPPER MI...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY FAILING TO REACH 40 EAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY WHILE THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MERGES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO FORM DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS...WITH POSSIBLY
SOME CLOUD COVER EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT KIWD WILL LIFT AROUND 14Z WITH DIURNAL
MIXING. AT THAT TIME...EXPECT VFR FOR ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KDTX 011057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.AVIATION...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIMITED TO EPISODES OF DRIZZLE LARGELY
OCCURING PRIOR TO 15Z. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING RENEWED
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND RAIN MAINLY KPTK SOUTH IN THE 05-10Z TIME
WINDOW.

FOR DTW...SPORADIC UPSTREAM CEILINGS OF 300 FEET MEAN THAT DIPPING
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS OF 200FT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT PRIOR TO 13Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 06Z
  TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST
3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD
OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN
AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/
TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH.  CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/.

TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW
PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE
UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH.

NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.  LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME.  ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BY EARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 011057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.AVIATION...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIMITED TO EPISODES OF DRIZZLE LARGELY
OCCURING PRIOR TO 15Z. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING RENEWED
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND RAIN MAINLY KPTK SOUTH IN THE 05-10Z TIME
WINDOW.

FOR DTW...SPORADIC UPSTREAM CEILINGS OF 300 FEET MEAN THAT DIPPING
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS OF 200FT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT PRIOR TO 13Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 06Z
  TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST
3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD
OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN
AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/
TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH.  CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/.

TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW
PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE
UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH.

NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.  LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME.  ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BY EARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 011045
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED NORTH OF THE US
/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SLOWLY PUSHING
EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...PRODUCING AREAS OF CONVECTION. HEART OF
THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
REACHED THE APPALACHIANS...NEVER REALLY REACHING INTO MICHIGAN. DRY
NE FLOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO ERODE THE NRN EDGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD NOW TRYING TO MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS
INTO OUR CWA. SOME SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND HERE AT THE
OFFICE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP SO FAR.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW SUITE...BUT WILL MAKE
A FINAL PUSH NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING BEFORE RETREATING SE WITH
THE DEPARTING LOW. NRN EXTENT SHOULD BE MAINLY ALONG M-32...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. WITH PERSISTENT DRY
NE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE NOW WELL EAST OF MICHIGAN...QPF AND
PRECIP INTENSITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS WILL WIND SPEEDS...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

(5/2)MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,
FORCING THE MOISTURE WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH ON
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AT 500 MB, THE LOW BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
HUDSON BAY AS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE NIGHT AS THE 700-
500 MB LAYER RH REMAIN < 30% AND A SFC RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z/TUE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH.

(5/3)TUESDAY...MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER A BIT MORE ON THIS TIME
PERIOD, BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS
SWINGING RAIN INTO N LOWER ABOUT 2-3 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
DURING THE NIGHT, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
REGION AS THE 500 MB LOW SWINGS INTO E UPPER AND THE SFC LOW PUSHES
THROUGH N LOWER AND N LAKE HURON.

EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVER THE CONUS, AN OMEGA
BLOCK WITH THE CENTER (500 MB RIDGE AXIS) OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
THE TWO CUT OFF LOWS, ONE OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, ON WEDNESDAY. THE BLOCK SLOWLY MOVES, OR AT LEAST
THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MOVES, TO THE EAST SOMEWHAT SO THAT BY
FRIDAY, THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW WOULD BE OVER THE EAST
COAST, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DESPITE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-32 (APN/TVC/MBL). RAIN SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP VSBYS VFR. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR NRN LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREA AROUND
AND SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010936
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.AVIATION...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIMITED TO EPISODES OF DRIZZLE LARGELY
OCCURING PRIOR TO 15Z. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING RENEWED
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND RAIN MAINLY KPTK SOUTH IN THE 05-10Z TIME
WINDOW.

FOR DTW...SPORADIC UPSTREAM CEILINGS OF 300 FEET MEAN THAT DIPPING
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS OF 200FT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT PRIOR TO 13Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 06Z
  TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST
3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD
OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN
AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/
TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH.  CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/.

TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW
PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE
UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH.

NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.  LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME.  ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONICFLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BYEARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010936
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.AVIATION...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIMITED TO EPISODES OF DRIZZLE LARGELY
OCCURING PRIOR TO 15Z. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING RENEWED
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND RAIN MAINLY KPTK SOUTH IN THE 05-10Z TIME
WINDOW.

FOR DTW...SPORADIC UPSTREAM CEILINGS OF 300 FEET MEAN THAT DIPPING
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS OF 200FT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT PRIOR TO 13Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 06Z
  TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST
3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD
OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN
AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/
TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH.  CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/.

TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW
PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE
UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH.

NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.  LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME.  ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONICFLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BYEARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010752
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST
3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD
OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN
AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/
TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH.  CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/.

TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW
PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE
UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH.

NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.  LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME.  ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONICFLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BYEARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1229 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGESTS THE HEIGHT OF THE RAINFALL
EVENT IS NOW AT PRESS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS VEERING ACROSS THE STATE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
PULLING EASTWARD OUT OF ONTARIO WILL CAUSE THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH TIME. WILL SEE
A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE WITH THE DRY SLOT LIFTING INTO THE STATE.
THERE IS NOW INCREASING CONCERNS FOR LIFR TO POSSIBLY EVEN VLIFR
CEILING HEIGHTS AS A POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM ON CEILING
HEIGHTS BELOW 500 FT AGL. THE BAND WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF
SAGINAW BAY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. LACK OF ANY POSITIVE
SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES WILL LIMIT ADVECTIONS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP A MVFR CEILING IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. TIMING FOR THE
ONSET OF THE NEXT RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE MID
EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.

FOR DTW...WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CIG HEIGHTS. ATTM...CONFDIENCE REMAINS LOW. BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS NOW WORKING TOWARDS DETROIT. EXPECTING A
TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE WITH THE DRY SLOT LIFTING OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS
TO PERSIST ALL OF SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL LIFTING BACK TOWARDS DETROIT
BY/AROUND 05Z SUNDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF
  FORECAST PERIOD.

* LOW FOR A CEILIGN HEIGHT OF AT/LESS THAN 200 FT AGL.

* VERY LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT DTW.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC
AVIATION.....JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND COLUMN MOISTENING ON PERIPHERY OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING E THROUGH THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH MODERATE
700-600 MB FGEN IN RESPONSE TO COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE OVER AREA
HAS SUPPORTED SOME SCT -SHRA OVER NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THESE SHOWERS WILL STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AS FORCING WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.

MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON PERIPHERY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
GRADUALLY THIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
UNDER A COOL NE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F OVER
THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF....TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY...A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP
INLAND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTHS
AND HIGH BASES SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FORMATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SSE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING LEFT EXIT
OF AN UPPER JET WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN PLAYER FOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA...ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS DIURNAL ASSISTANCE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO NUMEROUS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ANY DECENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT A FEW RUMBLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY HAS ALSO HAD THE FOCUS OF FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. BY THEN...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE HAD A WEEK OF DRYING SINCE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY LAST WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS TEMPS
INTO THE 60S INLAND AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20MPH LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST WOULD BE AN EARLY ARRIVAL
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. THE SECOND IS AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING. THEN...WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH LATE WED NIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS AND N TO NW WINDS FAVOR A CHILLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
UPPER MI...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY FAILING TO REACH 40 EAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY WHILE THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MERGES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO FORM DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS...WITH POSSIBLY
SOME CLOUD COVER EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 010729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WE/LL SEE A DECREASING PRECIPITATION TREND
TODAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 50S. MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IL/IN MOVING EAST. MUCH
OF THE PCPN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA.
WE/VE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE DAY BUT ADDED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS BUFKIT OMEGA PROFILES SHOWED SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AND WE/LL SEE SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS SHORT WAVE IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM AND WILL BE
GONE BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PROVIDE FOR QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE.

TODAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... WITH THE BULK OF
SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND -3C AIR AT H8 POURING IN ON THE HEELS OF
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN
THE 50S WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPR LOW
AFTER THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVE
EAST.

THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING
ALOFT. SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR... CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WHICH WILL BE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY TURN THE CORNER TOWARD WARMER WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMING ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST... LEADING TO TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS 70-
75 NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CEILINGS AND VISBYS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD NORTH BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE EAST AOB 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES
TODAY...HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE 5 MILE POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010724
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
324 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SOME CU AND CIRRUS. CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE E DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT PUTTING IT IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND
E...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD. HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S NCENTRAL AND W AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SCENTRAL AND E.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRUSH SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY TONIGHT...BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STAY S SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY...A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP
INLAND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTHS
AND HIGH BASES SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FORMATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SSE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING LEFT EXIT
OF AN UPPER JET WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN PLAYER FOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA...ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS DIURNAL ASSISTANCE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO NUMEROUS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ANY DECENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT A FEW RUMBLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY HAS ALSO HAD THE FOCUS OF FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. BY THEN...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE HAD A WEEK OF DRYING SINCE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY LAST WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS TEMPS
INTO THE 60S INLAND AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20MPH LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST WOULD BE AN EARLY ARRIVAL
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. THE SECOND IS AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING. THEN...WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH LATE WED NIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS AND N TO NW WINDS FAVOR A CHILLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
UPPER MI...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY FAILING TO REACH 40 EAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY WHILE THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MERGES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO FORM DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS...WITH POSSIBLY
SOME CLOUD COVER EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND
20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010633
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED NORTH OF THE US
/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SLOWLY PUSHING
EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...PRODUCING AREAS OF CONVECTION. HEART OF
THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
REACHED THE APPALACHIANS...NEVER REALLY REACHING INTO MICHIGAN. DRY
NE FLOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO ERODE THE NRN EDGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD NOW TRYING TO MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS
INTO OUR CWA. SOME SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND HERE AT THE
OFFICE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP SO FAR.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW SUITE...BUT WILL MAKE
A FINAL PUSH NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING BEFORE RETREATING SE WITH
THE DEPARTING LOW. NRN EXTENT SHOULD BE MAINLY ALONG M-32...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. WITH PERSISTENT DRY
NE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE NOW WELL EAST OF MICHIGAN...QPF AND
PRECIP INTENSITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS WILL WIND SPEEDS...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

(5/2)MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,
FORCING THE MOISTURE WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH ON
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AT 500 MB, THE LOW BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
HUDSON BAY AS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE NIGHT AS THE 700-
500 MB LAYER RH REMAIN < 30% AND A SFC RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z/TUE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH.

(5/3)TUESDAY...MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER A BIT MORE ON THIS TIME
PERIOD, BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS
SWINGING RAIN INTO N LOWER ABOUT 2-3 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
DURING THE NIGHT, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
REGION AS THE 500 MB LOW SWINGS INTO E UPPER AND THE SFC LOW PUSHES
THROUGH N LOWER AND N LAKE HURON.

EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVER THE CONUS, AN OMEGA
BLOCK WITH THE CENTER (500 MB RIDGE AXIS) OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
THE TWO CUT OFF LOWS, ONE OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, ON WEDNESDAY. THE BLOCK SLOWLY MOVES, OR AT LEAST
THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MOVES, TO THE EAST SOMEWHAT SO THAT BY
FRIDAY, THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW WOULD BE OVER THE EAST
COAST, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32 (APN/TVC/MBL). VFR CIGS WILL LOWER AS
THIS PRECIP PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBYS VFR. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB
10 KTS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR NRN LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREA AROUND
AND SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010633
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED NORTH OF THE US
/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SLOWLY PUSHING
EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...PRODUCING AREAS OF CONVECTION. HEART OF
THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
REACHED THE APPALACHIANS...NEVER REALLY REACHING INTO MICHIGAN. DRY
NE FLOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO ERODE THE NRN EDGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD NOW TRYING TO MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS
INTO OUR CWA. SOME SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND HERE AT THE
OFFICE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP SO FAR.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW SUITE...BUT WILL MAKE
A FINAL PUSH NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING BEFORE RETREATING SE WITH
THE DEPARTING LOW. NRN EXTENT SHOULD BE MAINLY ALONG M-32...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. WITH PERSISTENT DRY
NE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE NOW WELL EAST OF MICHIGAN...QPF AND
PRECIP INTENSITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS WILL WIND SPEEDS...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

(5/2)MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,
FORCING THE MOISTURE WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH ON
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AT 500 MB, THE LOW BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
HUDSON BAY AS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE NIGHT AS THE 700-
500 MB LAYER RH REMAIN < 30% AND A SFC RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z/TUE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH.

(5/3)TUESDAY...MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER A BIT MORE ON THIS TIME
PERIOD, BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS
SWINGING RAIN INTO N LOWER ABOUT 2-3 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
DURING THE NIGHT, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
REGION AS THE 500 MB LOW SWINGS INTO E UPPER AND THE SFC LOW PUSHES
THROUGH N LOWER AND N LAKE HURON.

EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVER THE CONUS, AN OMEGA
BLOCK WITH THE CENTER (500 MB RIDGE AXIS) OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
THE TWO CUT OFF LOWS, ONE OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, ON WEDNESDAY. THE BLOCK SLOWLY MOVES, OR AT LEAST
THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MOVES, TO THE EAST SOMEWHAT SO THAT BY
FRIDAY, THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW WOULD BE OVER THE EAST
COAST, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32 (APN/TVC/MBL). VFR CIGS WILL LOWER AS
THIS PRECIP PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBYS VFR. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB
10 KTS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR NRN LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREA AROUND
AND SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010528
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SOME CU AND CIRRUS. CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE E DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT PUTTING IT IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND
E...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD. HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S NCENTRAL AND W AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SCENTRAL AND E.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRUSH SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY TONIGHT...BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STAY S SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FOR THE NEXT 1 TO PERHAPS 2 WEEKS...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W
HALF OF CANADA WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING EARLY IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA AND AT TIMES
INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROFFING WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY APPROACHING THE
W COAST WILL SPLIT AT TIMES...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT OF A
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TROF ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES UNLESS THE ERN TROF
RELAXES SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES TROF
TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY...CERTAINLY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT
POSSIBLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL. THUS...THERE IS LITTLE
PCPN IN THE FCST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKING WRN CANADA RIDGE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED
TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN COLD
FROPA PROBABLY OCCURRING LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS...THIS FROPA BRINGS THE ONLY PCPN POTENTIAL WORTH A MENTION IN
THE FCST. REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROF DEVELOPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH DECENT
FORCING...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE HIGHER CHC CATEGORY TUE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DECENT FORCING/STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND A LITTLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED/COLDER
TROF...MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING OVER THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERMAL TROF
WILL BE CENTERED (850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C).

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN FAVORS MOSTLY NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ON SOME
DAYS...NIGHTTIME MINS WILL STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE
INTERIOR. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR
MON...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN WILL RULE
THE AFTN HRS KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOLER. WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE TUE
AS W TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE TUE AFTN/EVENING. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS
LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW
FOR WED UNDER BRISK N WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK SOLIDLY BLO
NORMAL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB
THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA...FURTHER SUPPORTING COOL CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE MOVED INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MAINTAINING THE
COOL AIR THRU THU. WHILE FCST SHOWS SOME RISE IN TEMPS THU COMPARED
TO WED...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS THU END UP BEING PRETTY
SIMILAR TO WED. IN RECENT DAYS...GFS RUNS WERE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DROPPING A COLD MID LEVEL LOW INTO NRN ONTARIO MIDWEEK WITH
ANOMALOUSLY LOW 500MB HEIGHTS FOR EARLY MAY. OVER THE LAST 24HRS...
THE GFS HAS MOVED AWAY FROM DROPPING THIS SYSTEM SO FAR S. SO...
AFTER THE COOL WEATHER WED/THU...MODERATION WILL OCCUR FRI/SAT.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...RECENT NAEFS OUTLOOKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
A TREND TOWARD WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) DURING THE SECOND
WEEK OF MAY.

WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX
WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW
WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND
20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010500
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LARGE WAA DRIVEN WING OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. PER OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS...IT DOES NOW APPEAR
LIGHT RAIN HAS LIKELY COMMENCED DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY...AND MAY DO
SO SHORTLY SOUTH OF M-55. HOWEVER...REALLY STARTING TO WONDER JUST
HOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH BEYOND THAT RAIN WILL REACH LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. JUST RELEASED 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW H5...WITH A REALLY DRY
SURFACE TO H8 LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LOT TO OVERCOME...AND SIMPLY
NOT TOO SURE IT EVER WILL BE COMPLETELY. HAVE TENTATIVELY TAKEN THE
"MIDDLE" ROAD...AND AT LEAST DELAYED THE RAINS NORTH PROGRESSION
SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EVIDENCE IS VERY HIGH RAIN WILL SIMPLY
NEVER REACH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN (WHICH IS ALREADY WELL HANDLED
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST). WILL SIMPLY WATCH RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TRANSITION ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER HUDSON BAY...WHILE A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
LIFT TOWARD THE SRN LAKES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL
BE CENTERED ON DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT SFC OBS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING UPPER LVL CLOUDS FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WHILE
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING AREA OF PCPN OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND SW LOWER MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN LOW AND MID LVLS (850/500MB RH UNDER 40 PCT)
LINGERING OVER NRN LWR AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW AND MID LVL MSTR INCREASING
(850/500MB RH 80PCT) FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS
THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SRN MI. 850/700MB QVECTORS
CURRENTLY SHOWING STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS SYSTEM
FOCUSED OVER SRN MI INTO THIS EVENING...WITH FORCING LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH AND OVERSPREADING LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL
QPF SHOWING MOST OF THE PCPN LINGERING SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC...WITH HIGHEST QPF (STILL UNDER ONE QUARTER
INCH) ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32.

OVERALL WILL MENTION RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER NRN MI LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS PLAINS SYSTEM APPROACHES. WILL LEAVE ERN
UPPER AND EXTREME TIP OF THE MITT DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND LINGERING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH.
WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS BETWEEN TVC AND PLN AS DOWN
SLOPING FLOW ENHANCES DRY EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: MAYBE A CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY?

                     ...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION:

A RATHER DISORGANIZED/LOOSE/BAGGY UPPER AIR PATTERN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER HEAD. ONE SHEARED OUT VORT
MAX WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO EASTERN UPPER WHICH HAS LITTLE TO NO SFC
RESPONSE. MEANWHILE...A BETTER WAVE SLOWLY MAKES IT`S WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL EJECTED ENERGY LIFTING INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN PRIOR TO THAT IN MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BE WORKING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SHOWING A NICE ARCING SOLID BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL
DROP INTO HERE MONDAY...BUT IT WILL HAVE MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES WILL ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR THEN...WITH A SFC RESPONSE OF
WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE...BUT
THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

DEEPER MOISTURE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW ARRIVING SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
LOWER...ESPECIALLY NE LOWER CLOSER TO THE SAG BAY. DOWNSLOPING WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY DECENT QPF ACROSS NW LOWER. SOLIDLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE SETTLES IN ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER WITH SOME GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...BUT IT WILL
BE A RATHER SLOW PROCESS. A FAIRLY QUIET MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT WAVE THAT IS MOISTURE STARVED. THIS WAVE SETTLES IN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WARM FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT GETS ROOTED INTO
THE BL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION IS MOISTURE...WHICH ATTM
APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO GARNER AND CAPE. THIS IS CERTAINLY GOT THE
LOOK OF SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT WITHOUT MOISTURE...CHANCES ARE QUITE
SMALL. WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS RIGHT NOW...AND LEAVE
THUNDER OUT. MAYBE THE NEXT DATA SET WILL HAVE SOMETHING MORE TO
SUGGEST.

HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW 50S SOUTH (IN CLOUDS) TO THE UPPER 50S IN
THE U.P. (THERE`S A CHANGE). MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60. MONDAY WARMER BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOW 60S U.P. AND
MID/POSSIBLE UPPER 60S NRN LOWER. LOWS IN THE 30S.

           ...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500MB PATTERN SHOWING
STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE ROCKIES AND OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND A NARROW BUT DEEPENING TROUGH DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A MOISTURE STARVED
CANADIAN LOW TO DROP RIGHT DOWN OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...DRAGGING H8 TEMPS OF 0C ALONG WITH IT. JUST WHEN THE LOW
TRIES PUSHING EAST...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC STEEPENS...BLOCKING
ANY PROGRESS. GUIDANCE DISAGREES JUST HOW FAR WEST THE LOW
RETROGRADES...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THIS LOW DEEPENING AND CAMPING
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND THE GFS SHOWING A BIT WEAKER LOW PARKING
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A LARGE ENOUGH DISAGREEMENT TO
BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN POPS/NO POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SO ALL THAT SAID...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
ANY OF THIS. SO WHILE PERIODIC CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED...I`M
PRETTY CONFIDENT WE WON`T BE SEEING ANY WASHOUTS. MATTER OF
FACT...THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE FOR LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE EXTENDED THAN OTHERWISE. SO IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (TIMING BEING THE MAIN CHALLENGE...BUT
NO WASHOUTS) AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32 (APN/TVC/MBL). VFR CIGS WILL LOWER AS
THIS PRECIP PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBYS VFR. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB
10 KTS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND PASSING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
GRADIENT GETS JUST TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE SRN NEARSHORES FOR LOW
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RELATIVE
HIGHER PRESSURE SLIDES IN FOR MONDAY WITH LIKELY LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTHERLY TUESDAY...REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...DICKSON/KAB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...DICKSON




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010500
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LARGE WAA DRIVEN WING OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. PER OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS...IT DOES NOW APPEAR
LIGHT RAIN HAS LIKELY COMMENCED DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY...AND MAY DO
SO SHORTLY SOUTH OF M-55. HOWEVER...REALLY STARTING TO WONDER JUST
HOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH BEYOND THAT RAIN WILL REACH LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. JUST RELEASED 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW H5...WITH A REALLY DRY
SURFACE TO H8 LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LOT TO OVERCOME...AND SIMPLY
NOT TOO SURE IT EVER WILL BE COMPLETELY. HAVE TENTATIVELY TAKEN THE
"MIDDLE" ROAD...AND AT LEAST DELAYED THE RAINS NORTH PROGRESSION
SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EVIDENCE IS VERY HIGH RAIN WILL SIMPLY
NEVER REACH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN (WHICH IS ALREADY WELL HANDLED
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST). WILL SIMPLY WATCH RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TRANSITION ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER HUDSON BAY...WHILE A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
LIFT TOWARD THE SRN LAKES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL
BE CENTERED ON DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT SFC OBS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING UPPER LVL CLOUDS FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WHILE
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING AREA OF PCPN OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND SW LOWER MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN LOW AND MID LVLS (850/500MB RH UNDER 40 PCT)
LINGERING OVER NRN LWR AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW AND MID LVL MSTR INCREASING
(850/500MB RH 80PCT) FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS
THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SRN MI. 850/700MB QVECTORS
CURRENTLY SHOWING STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS SYSTEM
FOCUSED OVER SRN MI INTO THIS EVENING...WITH FORCING LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH AND OVERSPREADING LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL
QPF SHOWING MOST OF THE PCPN LINGERING SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC...WITH HIGHEST QPF (STILL UNDER ONE QUARTER
INCH) ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32.

OVERALL WILL MENTION RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER NRN MI LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS PLAINS SYSTEM APPROACHES. WILL LEAVE ERN
UPPER AND EXTREME TIP OF THE MITT DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND LINGERING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH.
WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS BETWEEN TVC AND PLN AS DOWN
SLOPING FLOW ENHANCES DRY EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: MAYBE A CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY?

                     ...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION:

A RATHER DISORGANIZED/LOOSE/BAGGY UPPER AIR PATTERN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER HEAD. ONE SHEARED OUT VORT
MAX WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO EASTERN UPPER WHICH HAS LITTLE TO NO SFC
RESPONSE. MEANWHILE...A BETTER WAVE SLOWLY MAKES IT`S WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL EJECTED ENERGY LIFTING INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN PRIOR TO THAT IN MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BE WORKING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SHOWING A NICE ARCING SOLID BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL
DROP INTO HERE MONDAY...BUT IT WILL HAVE MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES WILL ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR THEN...WITH A SFC RESPONSE OF
WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE...BUT
THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

DEEPER MOISTURE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW ARRIVING SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
LOWER...ESPECIALLY NE LOWER CLOSER TO THE SAG BAY. DOWNSLOPING WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY DECENT QPF ACROSS NW LOWER. SOLIDLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE SETTLES IN ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER WITH SOME GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...BUT IT WILL
BE A RATHER SLOW PROCESS. A FAIRLY QUIET MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT WAVE THAT IS MOISTURE STARVED. THIS WAVE SETTLES IN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WARM FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT GETS ROOTED INTO
THE BL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION IS MOISTURE...WHICH ATTM
APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO GARNER AND CAPE. THIS IS CERTAINLY GOT THE
LOOK OF SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT WITHOUT MOISTURE...CHANCES ARE QUITE
SMALL. WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS RIGHT NOW...AND LEAVE
THUNDER OUT. MAYBE THE NEXT DATA SET WILL HAVE SOMETHING MORE TO
SUGGEST.

HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW 50S SOUTH (IN CLOUDS) TO THE UPPER 50S IN
THE U.P. (THERE`S A CHANGE). MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60. MONDAY WARMER BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOW 60S U.P. AND
MID/POSSIBLE UPPER 60S NRN LOWER. LOWS IN THE 30S.

           ...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500MB PATTERN SHOWING
STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE ROCKIES AND OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND A NARROW BUT DEEPENING TROUGH DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A MOISTURE STARVED
CANADIAN LOW TO DROP RIGHT DOWN OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...DRAGGING H8 TEMPS OF 0C ALONG WITH IT. JUST WHEN THE LOW
TRIES PUSHING EAST...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC STEEPENS...BLOCKING
ANY PROGRESS. GUIDANCE DISAGREES JUST HOW FAR WEST THE LOW
RETROGRADES...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THIS LOW DEEPENING AND CAMPING
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND THE GFS SHOWING A BIT WEAKER LOW PARKING
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A LARGE ENOUGH DISAGREEMENT TO
BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN POPS/NO POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SO ALL THAT SAID...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
ANY OF THIS. SO WHILE PERIODIC CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED...I`M
PRETTY CONFIDENT WE WON`T BE SEEING ANY WASHOUTS. MATTER OF
FACT...THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE FOR LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE EXTENDED THAN OTHERWISE. SO IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (TIMING BEING THE MAIN CHALLENGE...BUT
NO WASHOUTS) AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32 (APN/TVC/MBL). VFR CIGS WILL LOWER AS
THIS PRECIP PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBYS VFR. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB
10 KTS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND PASSING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
GRADIENT GETS JUST TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE SRN NEARSHORES FOR LOW
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RELATIVE
HIGHER PRESSURE SLIDES IN FOR MONDAY WITH LIKELY LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTHERLY TUESDAY...REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...DICKSON/KAB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...DICKSON




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010429
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1229 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.AVIATION...

LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGESTS THE HEIGHT OF THE RAINFALL
EVENT IS NOW AT PRESS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS VEERING ACROSS THE STATE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
PULLING EASTWARD OUT OF ONTARIO WILL CAUSE THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH TIME. WILL SEE
A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE WITH THE DRY SLOT LIFTING INTO THE STATE.
THERE IS NOW INCREASING CONCERNS FOR LIFR TO POSSIBLY EVEN VLIFR
CEILING HEIGHTS AS A POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM ON CEILING
HEIGHTS BELOW 500 FT AGL. THE BAND WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF
SAGINAW BAY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. LACK OF ANY POSITIVE
SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES WILL LIMIT ADVECTIONS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP A MVFR CEILING IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. TIMING FOR THE
ONSET OF THE NEXT RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE MID
EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.


FOR DTW...WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CIG HEIGHTS. ATTM...CONFDIENCE REMAINS LOW. BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS NOW WORKING TOWARDS DETROIT. EXPECTING A
TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE WITH THE DRY SLOT LIFTING OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS
TO PERSIST ALL OF SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL LIFTING BACK TOWARDS DETROIT
BY/AROUND 05Z SUNDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF
  FORECAST PERIOD.

* LOW FOR A CEILIGN HEIGHT OF AT/LESS THAN 200 FT AGL.

* VERY LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT DTW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1021 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPDATE...

THERE IS A CLASSIC PRESENTATION OF OVERRUNNING/ELEVATED WARM
FRONTAL DYNAMIC PRECIPITATION ON REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC
THIS EVENING OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
THE WIDE BAND OF RAIN HAS NOW FULLY ENCOMPASSED THE CWA WITH -RA
REPORTING RIGHT THROUGH THE THUMB AND SAGINAW BAY. HIGHER Z ECHOES
AND HEAVIER RAIN RATES ARE IN PLACE OVER SW MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NEAR A PSEUDO-TRIPLE POINT THAT IS BEING FORCED
DIRECTLY BY THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
IS SOME PHASING OF THIS MIDLEVEL FORCING WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS OVER
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC. MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL JET CYCLING/STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING WHILE IT
VEERS/ROTATES ACROSS THE CWA. IT IS THIS SPECIFIC FORCING THAT IS
CURRENTLY INDUCING A FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE NET RESULT IS FOR RAINFALL RATES TO INCREASE FOR A
PERIOD THIS EVENING AS THE TRIPLE POINT AND -DIV CENTROID WORKS
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY TO THE SW...OVER OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN IS A DRY SLOT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD FOR LATER TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE ALL VERY STRONG WITH
THIS DRY SLOT. INTRODUCED A DRIZZLE MENTION FOR AREAS AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN/IS/REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLED UP OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY (12Z
KILX SOUNDING INDICATED 9 C DEW PT AT 850 MB) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOLID UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/PV ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1 INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-69 CORRIDOR...SUPPORTIVE OF AMOUNTS REACHING AND LIKELY ECLIPSING
HALF AN INCH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS
SHOWALTER INDEX PROGGED TO DROP BELOW ZERO JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTUAL CAPE...SHOULD BE
HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE DO
BECOME STEEP ON SUNDAY (7+ C/KM)...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRYING
OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS...AND DON`T EXPECT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY. VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES IN PLACE (850
MB TEMPS OF 1 C OVER SAGINAW TO 10 C NEAR OHIO BORDER PER 12Z
EURO)...AND EVEN WOULD NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...COULD SEE FAR SOUTH
REACH AND EXCEED 60 DEGREES WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYING/LULL IN
ACTIVITY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE INDICATED A FARTHER NORTH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT TOMORROW...WHICH LOOKS TO SET US UP FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING....AS SECOND WAVE AND
LEFTOVER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES
EAST...PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
LOOKS TO CLIP AREAS SOUTH OF I-69 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z MODEL
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE SOUTH A BIT...BUT 12Z EURO
REMAINS MOST AGRESSIVE/ADAMANT...AND FEEL CONFIDENT TO GO LIKELY
POPS SOUTH OF I-69 TO CATEGORICAL NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. SUBSTANTIAL
COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE MERGING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL PROGGED
TO FALL TO ZERO...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP MAXES UNDER 60 DEGREES. IF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY
NIGHT...FROST CONCERNS WILL RETURN AS TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S WITH CALM/NEARLY CALM WINDS.

WEAK AND FRAGILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
TUESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE CLOUDS AROUND WITH A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
OHIO VALLEY SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE ONTARIO
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SUPPORT CLOSING OFF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION POSSIBLY EVEN INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS AN
UNPLEASANT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
HIGHLIGHTED BY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH GUIDANCE
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY. THESE
TYPES OF CLOSED SYSTEMS OFTEN END UP BEING SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN
MODEL FORECASTS WHICH ALSO POINTS TO A SHAKY START TO NEXT WEEKEND
AS WELL.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN GUSTY OVER LAKE HURON
TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...AS PERSISTENT AND
STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE ALLOWS WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD BETWEEN 4
AND 8 FEET. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SPEEDS
DECREASE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LARGE WAVES TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING. A VERY LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM...OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND FINALLY TURN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE.

HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAINFALL INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS THEN LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 9 PM AND 4 AM TONIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL THROUGH 2 PM SUNDAY LOOKS TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH SOUTH
OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THIS RAINFALL WILL PROMPT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER QUICK ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 MAY PICK UP AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION...SF/BT
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 010353
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1153 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 94. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OFF TO OUR SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT/S RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DAMP WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 50S AGAIN. WE WILL PUSH TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.

AS FOR THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT
AS AN 850MB WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS SEEN ALONG I-94 AT 850MB/S WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DECENT RAIN RATES FOR A TIME. AN 850MB LLJ INTERSECTS THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE STATE.
THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE (I-96).

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERALL...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS. HAVE 40-50 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS. RAIN SHOULD RAMP
UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEP BY THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A BIT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.  I ADDED POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RUNNING INTO SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A GRAY AND CHILLY DAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND MAINLY DRY.  H8 TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE 0C TO +5C RANGE SO NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT WE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE
SHOWERS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
THURSDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CEILINGS AND VISBYS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD NORTH BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE EAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONSIDERED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
WIND...AS EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP A BIT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN A LOW JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A 1030MB
HIGH OVER ONTARIO. THINKING WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. GIVEN AN OFF SHORE WIND...WAVES WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE...NEARLY FLAT AT THE SHORE WITH 2-3 FOOTERS NEAR THE 5 MILE
MARK. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 010353
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1153 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 94. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OFF TO OUR SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT/S RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DAMP WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 50S AGAIN. WE WILL PUSH TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.

AS FOR THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT
AS AN 850MB WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS SEEN ALONG I-94 AT 850MB/S WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DECENT RAIN RATES FOR A TIME. AN 850MB LLJ INTERSECTS THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE STATE.
THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE (I-96).

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERALL...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS. HAVE 40-50 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS. RAIN SHOULD RAMP
UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEP BY THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A BIT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.  I ADDED POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RUNNING INTO SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A GRAY AND CHILLY DAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND MAINLY DRY.  H8 TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE 0C TO +5C RANGE SO NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT WE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE
SHOWERS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
THURSDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CEILINGS AND VISBYS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD NORTH BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE EAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONSIDERED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
WIND...AS EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP A BIT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN A LOW JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A 1030MB
HIGH OVER ONTARIO. THINKING WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. GIVEN AN OFF SHORE WIND...WAVES WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE...NEARLY FLAT AT THE SHORE WITH 2-3 FOOTERS NEAR THE 5 MILE
MARK. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010221
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1021 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

THERE IS A CLASSIC PRESENTATION OF OVERRUNNING/ELEVATED WARM
FRONTAL DYNAMIC PRECIPITATION ON REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC
THIS EVENING OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
THE WIDE BAND OF RAIN HAS NOW FULLY ENCOMPASSED THE CWA WITH -RA
REPORTING RIGHT THROUGH THE THUMB AND SAGINAW BAY. HIGHER Z ECHOES
AND HEAVIER RAIN RATES ARE IN PLACE OVER SW MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NEAR A PSEUDO-TRIPLE POINT THAT IS BEING FORCED
DIRECTLY BY THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
IS SOME PHASING OF THIS MIDLEVEL FORCING WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS OVER
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC. MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL JET CYCLING/STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING WHILE IT
VEERS/ROTATES ACROSS THE CWA. IT IS THIS SPECIFIC FORCING THAT IS
CURRENTLY INDUCING A FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE NET RESULT IS FOR RAINFALL RATES TO INCREASE FOR A
PERIOD THIS EVENING AS THE TRIPLE POINT AND -DIV CENTROID WORKS
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY TO THE SW...OVER OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN IS A DRY SLOT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD FOR LATER TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE ALL VERY STRONG WITH
THIS DRY SLOT. INTRODUCED A DRIZZLE MENTION FOR AREAS AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN/IS/REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 734 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

COMPROMISED AVIATION CONDITIONS BOTH IN CEILINGS AND SURFACE
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A MOISTURE LADEN FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS INTO THE STATE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF DTW...OVER NORTHERN
OHIO/INDIANA HAVE BEEN SOLID IFR IN CEILING HEIGHTS. WITH YIP
REPORTING A CIG AT LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL AN HOUR AGO...DECIDED TO
DUMP ALL THE DETROIT TAF SITES INTO IFR TO START THE PERIOD. IT IS
APPEARING THAT AT LEAST FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS TO START THE
EVENT...VISIBILITIES WILL HOLD MVFR. ADDED SOME TIMING TO THE
DURATION OF THE RAIN TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...BUT THEN
SWITCHED TO DRIZZLE FOR LATE TONIGHT...POST 09Z WITH MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE STRIPPING OUT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDS. THERE IS
SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO FALL BELOW 1 MILE...BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO DISCOURAGE IT. MAIN FRONTAL FORCING WILL
LIFT INTO THE SAGINAW BAY REGION BY THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST.

FOR DTW...THE COMBINATION OF FORECAST DATA AND AN IFR CIG HEIGHT
AT YIP SUPPORTS GOING WITH IFR CIG HEIGHTS AT METRO TO START THE
PERIOD. PER SFC OBSERVATION TRENDS THE PREDOMINATE SURFACE
VISIBILITY APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-5SM MILE RANGE. WILL WATCH
TRENDS LATER TONIGHT FOR POSSIBILITY OF THICKER FOG ONCE MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE STRIPS OUT...POST 9Z. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIG HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF
  FORECAST PERIOD.

* VERY LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT DTW TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLED UP OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY (12Z
KILX SOUNDING INDICATED 9 C DEW PT AT 850 MB) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOLID UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/PV ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1 INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-69 CORRIDOR...SUPPORTIVE OF AMOUNTS REACHING AND LIKELY ECLIPSING
HALF AN INCH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS
SHOWALTER INDEX PROGGED TO DROP BELOW ZERO JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTUAL CAPE...SHOULD BE
HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE DO
BECOME STEEP ON SUNDAY (7+ C/KM)...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRYING
OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS...AND DON`T EXPECT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY. VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES IN PLACE (850
MB TEMPS OF 1 C OVER SAGINAW TO 10 C NEAR OHIO BORDER PER 12Z
EURO)...AND EVEN WOULD NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...COULD SEE FAR SOUTH
REACH AND EXCEED 60 DEGREES WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYING/LULL IN
ACTIVITY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE INDICATED A FARTHER NORTH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT TOMORROW...WHICH LOOKS TO SET US UP FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING....AS SECOND WAVE AND
LEFTOVER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES
EAST...PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
LOOKS TO CLIP AREAS SOUTH OF I-69 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z MODEL
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE SOUTH A BIT...BUT 12Z EURO
REMAINS MOST AGRESSIVE/ADAMANT...AND FEEL CONFIDENT TO GO LIKELY
POPS SOUTH OF I-69 TO CATEGORICAL NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. SUBSTANTIAL
COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE MERGING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL PROGGED
TO FALL TO ZERO...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP MAXES UNDER 60 DEGREES. IF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY
NIGHT...FROST CONCERNS WILL RETURN AS TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S WITH CALM/NEARLY CALM WINDS.

WEAK AND FRAGILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
TUESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE CLOUDS AROUND WITH A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
OHIO VALLEY SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE ONTARIO
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SUPPORT CLOSING OFF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION POSSIBLY EVEN INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS AN
UNPLEASANT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
HIGHLIGHTED BY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH GUIDANCE
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY. THESE
TYPES OF CLOSED SYSTEMS OFTEN END UP BEING SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN
MODEL FORECASTS WHICH ALSO POINTS TO A SHAKY START TO NEXT WEEKEND
AS WELL.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN GUSTY OVER LAKE HURON
TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...AS PERSISTENT AND
STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE ALLOWS WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD BETWEEN 4
AND 8 FEET. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SPEEDS
DECREASE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LARGE WAVES TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING. A VERY LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM...OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND FINALLY TURN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE.

HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAINFALL INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS THEN LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 9 PM AND 4 AM TONIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL THROUGH 2 PM SUNDAY LOOKS TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH SOUTH
OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THIS RAINFALL WILL PROMPT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER QUICK ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 MAY PICK UP AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF/BT
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010039
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
839 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LARGE WAA DRIVEN WING OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. PER OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS...IT DOES NOW APPEAR
LIGHT RAIN HAS LIKELY COMMENCED DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY...AND MAY DO
SO SHORTLY SOUTH OF M-55. HOWEVER...REALLY STARTING TO WONDER JUST
HOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH BEYOND THAT RAIN WILL REACH LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. JUST RELEASED 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW H5...WITH A REALLY DRY
SURFACE TO H8 LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LOT TO OVERCOME...AND SIMPLY
NOT TOO SURE IT EVER WILL BE COMPLETELY. HAVE TENTATIVELY TAKEN THE
"MIDDLE" ROAD...AND AT LEAST DELAYED THE RAINS NORTH PROGRESSION
SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EVIDENCE IS VERY HIGH RAIN WILL SIMPLY
NEVER REACH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN (WHICH IS ALREADY WELL HANDLED
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST). WILL SIMPLY WATCH RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TRANSITION ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER HUDSON BAY...WHILE A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
LIFT TOWARD THE SRN LAKES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL
BE CENTERED ON DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT SFC OBS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING UPPER LVL CLOUDS FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WHILE
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING AREA OF PCPN OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND SW LOWER MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN LOW AND MID LVLS (850/500MB RH UNDER 40 PCT)
LINGERING OVER NRN LWR AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW AND MID LVL MSTR INCREASING
(850/500MB RH 80PCT) FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS
THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SRN MI. 850/700MB QVECTORS
CURRENTLY SHOWING STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS SYSTEM
FOCUSED OVER SRN MI INTO THIS EVENING...WITH FORCING LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH AND OVERSPREADING LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL
QPF SHOWING MOST OF THE PCPN LINGERING SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC...WITH HIGHEST QPF (STILL UNDER ONE QUARTER
INCH) ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32.

OVERALL WILL MENTION RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER NRN MI LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS PLAINS SYSTEM APPROACHES. WILL LEAVE ERN
UPPER AND EXTREME TIP OF THE MITT DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND LINGERING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH.
WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS BETWEEN TVC AND PLN AS DOWN
SLOPING FLOW ENHANCES DRY EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: MAYBE A CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY?

                     ...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION:

A RATHER DISORGANIZED/LOOSE/BAGGY UPPER AIR PATTERN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER HEAD. ONE SHEARED OUT VORT
MAX WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO EASTERN UPPER WHICH HAS LITTLE TO NO SFC
RESPONSE. MEANWHILE...A BETTER WAVE SLOWLY MAKES IT`S WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL EJECTED ENERGY LIFTING INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN PRIOR TO THAT IN MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BE WORKING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SHOWING A NICE ARCING SOLID BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL
DROP INTO HERE MONDAY...BUT IT WILL HAVE MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES WILL ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR THEN...WITH A SFC RESPONSE OF
WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE...BUT
THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

DEEPER MOISTURE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW ARRIVING SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
LOWER...ESPECIALLY NE LOWER CLOSER TO THE SAG BAY. DOWNSLOPING WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY DECENT QPF ACROSS NW LOWER. SOLIDLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE SETTLES IN ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER WITH SOME GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...BUT IT WILL
BE A RATHER SLOW PROCESS. A FAIRLY QUIET MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT WAVE THAT IS MOISTURE STARVED. THIS WAVE SETTLES IN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WARM FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT GETS ROOTED INTO
THE BL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION IS MOISTURE...WHICH ATTM
APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO GARNER AND CAPE. THIS IS CERTAINLY GOT THE
LOOK OF SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT WITHOUT MOISTURE...CHANCES ARE QUITE
SMALL. WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS RIGHT NOW...AND LEAVE
THUNDER OUT. MAYBE THE NEXT DATA SET WILL HAVE SOMETHING MORE TO
SUGGEST.

HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW 50S SOUTH (IN CLOUDS) TO THE UPPER 50S IN
THE U.P. (THERE`S A CHANGE). MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60. MONDAY WARMER BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOW 60S U.P. AND
MID/POSSIBLE UPPER 60S NRN LOWER. LOWS IN THE 30S.

           ...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500MB PATTERN SHOWING
STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE ROCKIES AND OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND A NARROW BUT DEEPENING TROUGH DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A MOISTURE STARVED
CANADIAN LOW TO DROP RIGHT DOWN OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...DRAGGING H8 TEMPS OF 0C ALONG WITH IT. JUST WHEN THE LOW
TRIES PUSHING EAST...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC STEEPENS...BLOCKING
ANY PROGRESS. GUIDANCE DISAGREES JUST HOW FAR WEST THE LOW
RETROGRADES...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THIS LOW DEEPENING AND CAMPING
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND THE GFS SHOWING A BIT WEAKER LOW PARKING
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A LARGE ENOUGH DISAGREEMENT TO
BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN POPS/NO POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SO ALL THAT SAID...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
ANY OF THIS. SO WHILE PERIODIC CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED...I`M
PRETTY CONFIDENT WE WON`T BE SEEING ANY WASHOUTS. MATTER OF
FACT...THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE FOR LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE EXTENDED THAN OTHERWISE. SO IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (TIMING BEING THE MAIN CHALLENGE...BUT
NO WASHOUTS) AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CHALLENGING...RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WITH REGARDS TO
CIG HEIGHTS AND RAIN TRENDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER
DRY EAST FLOW ROTATING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH
SHOULD MAKE THE LOWER LEVELS HARD TO SATURATE...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-72. THINK THIS DRY ENVIRONMENT WILL
HALT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF RAINS INTO CENTRAL NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH KAPN AND KTVC LOOK TO REMAIN ALONG
THIS NORTHERN GRADIENT...SO WILL SIMPLY CARRY SOME VCSH AS A
STARTING POINT. LIGHT RAINS APPEAR MORE LIKELY AT KMBL LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL BOW NORTH WITH THE
RAIN...ALTHOUGH GOT TO QUESTION SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
STRATUS-PRODUCING GUIDANCE GIVEN MAINTENANCE OF DRY EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS ONLY AT KMBL...WITH PLENTY OF
TIME TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH THESE LOWER CIGS TREND (WELL BEYOND THE
6 HOUR CRITICAL TAF PERIOD). AS MENTIONED...GENERALLY LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND PASSING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
GRADIENT GETS JUST TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE SRN NEARSHORES FOR LOW
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RELATIVE
HIGHER PRESSURE SLIDES IN FOR MONDAY WITH LIKELY LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTHERLY TUESDAY...REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...DICKSON/KAB
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...DICKSON




000
FXUS63 KGRR 302347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
747 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 94. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OFF TO OUR SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT/S RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DAMP WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 50S AGAIN. WE WILL PUSH TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.

AS FOR THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT
AS AN 850MB WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS SEEN ALONG I-94 AT 850MB/S WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DECENT RAIN RATES FOR A TIME. AN 850MB LLJ INTERSECTS THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE STATE.
THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE (I-96).

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERALL...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS. HAVE 40-50 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS. RAIN SHOULD RAMP
UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEP BY THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A BIT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.  I ADDED POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RUNNING INTO SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A GRAY AND CHILLY DAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND MAINLY DRY.  H8 TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE 0C TO +5C RANGE SO NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT WE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE
SHOWERS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
THURSDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING...CEILINGS AND VISBYS
WILL LOWER AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH FOLLOWED BY
IFR. EXPECT IFR TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONSIDERED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
WIND...AS EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP A BIT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN A LOW JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A 1030MB
HIGH OVER ONTARIO. THINKING WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. GIVEN AN OFF SHORE WIND...WAVES WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE...NEARLY FLAT AT THE SHORE WITH 2-3 FOOTERS NEAR THE 5 MILE
MARK. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 302347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
747 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 94. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OFF TO OUR SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT/S RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DAMP WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 50S AGAIN. WE WILL PUSH TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.

AS FOR THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT
AS AN 850MB WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS SEEN ALONG I-94 AT 850MB/S WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DECENT RAIN RATES FOR A TIME. AN 850MB LLJ INTERSECTS THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE STATE.
THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE (I-96).

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERALL...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS. HAVE 40-50 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS. RAIN SHOULD RAMP
UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEP BY THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A BIT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.  I ADDED POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RUNNING INTO SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A GRAY AND CHILLY DAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND MAINLY DRY.  H8 TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE 0C TO +5C RANGE SO NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT WE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE
SHOWERS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
THURSDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING...CEILINGS AND VISBYS
WILL LOWER AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH FOLLOWED BY
IFR. EXPECT IFR TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONSIDERED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
WIND...AS EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP A BIT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN A LOW JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A 1030MB
HIGH OVER ONTARIO. THINKING WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. GIVEN AN OFF SHORE WIND...WAVES WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE...NEARLY FLAT AT THE SHORE WITH 2-3 FOOTERS NEAR THE 5 MILE
MARK. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KDTX 302334
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
734 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


.AVIATION...

COMPROMISED AVIATION CONDITIONS BOTH IN CEILINGS AND SURFACE
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A MOISTURE LADEN FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS INTO THE STATE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF DTW...OVER NORTHERN
OHIO/INDIANA HAVE BEEN SOLID IFR IN CEILING HEIGHTS. WITH YIP
REPORTING A CIG AT LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL AN HOUR AGO...DECIDED TO
DUMP ALL THE DETROIT TAF SITES INTO IFR TO START THE PERIOD. IT IS
APPEARING THAT AT LEAST FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS TO START THE
EVENT...VISIBILITIES WILL HOLD MVFR. ADDED SOME TIMING TO THE
DURATION OF THE RAIN TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...BUT THEN
SWITCHED TO DRIZZLE FOR LATE TONIGHT...POST 09Z WITH MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE STRIPPING OUT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDS. THERE IS
SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO FALL BELOW 1 MILE...BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO DISCOURAGE IT. MAIN FRONTAL FORCING WILL
LIFT INTO THE SAGINAW BAY REGION BY THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST.

FOR DTW...THE COMBINATION OF FORECAST DATA AND AN IFR CIG HEIGHT
AT YIP SUPPORTS GOING WITH IFR CIG HEIGHTS AT METRO TO START THE
PERIOD. PER SFC OBSERVATION TRENDS THE PREDOMINATE SURFACE
VISIBILITY APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-5SM MILE RANGE. WILL WATCH
TRENDS LATER TONIGHT FOR POSSIBILITY OF THICKER FOG ONCE MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE STRIPS OUT...POST 9Z. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIG HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF
  FORECAST PERIOD.

* VERY LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT DTW TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLED UP OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY (12Z
KILX SOUNDING INDICATED 9 C DEW PT AT 850 MB) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOLID UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/PV ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1 INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-69 CORRIDOR...SUPPORTIVE OF AMOUNTS REACHING AND LIKELY ECLIPSING
HALF AN INCH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS
SHOWALTER INDEX PROGGED TO DROP BELOW ZERO JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTUAL CAPE...SHOULD BE
HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE DO
BECOME STEEP ON SUNDAY (7+ C/KM)...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRYING
OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS...AND DON`T EXPECT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY. VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES IN PLACE (850
MB TEMPS OF 1 C OVER SAGINAW TO 10 C NEAR OHIO BORDER PER 12Z
EURO)...AND EVEN WOULD NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...COULD SEE FAR SOUTH
REACH AND EXCEED 60 DEGREES WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYING/LULL IN
ACTIVITY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE INDICATED A FARTHER NORTH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT TOMORROW...WHICH LOOKS TO SET US UP FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING....AS SECOND WAVE AND
LEFTOVER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES
EAST...PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
LOOKS TO CLIP AREAS SOUTH OF I-69 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z MODEL
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE SOUTH A BIT...BUT 12Z EURO
REMAINS MOST AGRESSIVE/ADAMANT...AND FEEL CONFIDENT TO GO LIKELY
POPS SOUTH OF I-69 TO CATEGORICAL NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. SUBSTANTIAL
COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE MERGING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL PROGGED
TO FALL TO ZERO...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP MAXES UNDER 60 DEGREES. IF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY
NIGHT...FROST CONCERNS WILL RETURN AS TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S WITH CALM/NEARLY CALM WINDS.

WEAK AND FRAGILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
TUESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE CLOUDS AROUND WITH A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
OHIO VALLEY SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE ONTARIO
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SUPPORT CLOSING OFF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION POSSIBLY EVEN INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS AN
UNPLEASANT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
HIGHLIGHTED BY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH GUIDANCE
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY. THESE
TYPES OF CLOSED SYSTEMS OFTEN END UP BEING SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN
MODEL FORECASTS WHICH ALSO POINTS TO A SHAKY START TO NEXT WEEKEND
AS WELL.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN GUSTY OVER LAKE HURON
TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...AS PERSISTENT AND
STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE ALLOWS WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD BETWEEN 4
AND 8 FEET. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SPEEDS
DECREASE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LARGE WAVES TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING. A VERY LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM...OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND FINALLY TURN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE.

HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAINFALL INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS THEN LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 9 PM AND 4 AM TONIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL THROUGH 2 PM SUNDAY LOOKS TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH SOUTH
OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THIS RAINFALL WILL PROMPT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER QUICK ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 MAY PICK UP AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF/BT
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 302314
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
714 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TRANSITION ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER HUDSON BAY...WHILE A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
LIFT TOWARD THE SRN LAKES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL
BE CENTERED ON DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT SFC OBS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING UPPER LVL CLOUDS FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WHILE
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING AREA OF PCPN OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND SW LOWER MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN LOW AND MID LVLS (850/500MB RH UNDER 40 PCT)
LINGERING OVER NRN LWR AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW AND MID LVL MSTR INCREASING
(850/500MB RH 80PCT) FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS
THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SRN MI. 850/700MB QVECTORS
CURRENTLY SHOWING STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS SYSTEM
FOCUSED OVER SRN MI INTO THIS EVENING...WITH FORCING LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH AND OVERSPREADING LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL
QPF SHOWING MOST OF THE PCPN LINGERING SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC...WITH HIGHEST QPF (STILL UNDER ONE QUARTER
INCH) ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32.

OVERALL WILL MENTION RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER NRN MI LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS PLAINS SYSTEM APPROACHES. WILL LEAVE ERN
UPPER AND EXTREME TIP OF THE MITT DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND LINGERING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH.
WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS BETWEEN TVC AND PLN AS DOWN
SLOPING FLOW ENHANCES DRY EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: MAYBE A CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY?

                     ...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION:

A RATHER DISORGANIZED/LOOSE/BAGGY UPPER AIR PATTERN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER HEAD. ONE SHEARED OUT VORT
MAX WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO EASTERN UPPER WHICH HAS LITTLE TO NO SFC
RESPONSE. MEANWHILE...A BETTER WAVE SLOWLY MAKES IT`S WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL EJECTED ENERGY LIFTING INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN PRIOR TO THAT IN MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BE WORKING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SHOWING A NICE ARCING SOLID BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL
DROP INTO HERE MONDAY...BUT IT WILL HAVE MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES WILL ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR THEN...WITH A SFC RESPONSE OF
WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE...BUT
THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

DEEPER MOISTURE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW ARRIVING SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
LOWER...ESPECIALLY NE LOWER CLOSER TO THE SAG BAY. DOWNSLOPING WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY DECENT QPF ACROSS NW LOWER. SOLIDLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE SETTLES IN ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER WITH SOME GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...BUT IT WILL
BE A RATHER SLOW PROCESS. A FAIRLY QUIET MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT WAVE THAT IS MOISTURE STARVED. THIS WAVE SETTLES IN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WARM FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT GETS ROOTED INTO
THE BL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION IS MOISTURE...WHICH ATTM
APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO GARNER AND CAPE. THIS IS CERTAINLY GOT THE
LOOK OF SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT WITHOUT MOISTURE...CHANCES ARE QUITE
SMALL. WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS RIGHT NOW...AND LEAVE
THUNDER OUT. MAYBE THE NEXT DATA SET WILL HAVE SOMETHING MORE TO
SUGGEST.

HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW 50S SOUTH (IN CLOUDS) TO THE UPPER 50S IN
THE U.P. (THERE`S A CHANGE). MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60. MONDAY WARMER BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOW 60S U.P. AND
MID/POSSIBLE UPPER 60S NRN LOWER. LOWS IN THE 30S.

           ...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500MB PATTERN SHOWING
STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE ROCKIES AND OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND A NARROW BUT DEEPENING TROUGH DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A MOISTURE STARVED
CANADIAN LOW TO DROP RIGHT DOWN OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...DRAGGING H8 TEMPS OF 0C ALONG WITH IT. JUST WHEN THE LOW
TRIES PUSHING EAST...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC STEEPENS...BLOCKING
ANY PROGRESS. GUIDANCE DISAGREES JUST HOW FAR WEST THE LOW
RETROGRADES...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THIS LOW DEEPENING AND CAMPING
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND THE GFS SHOWING A BIT WEAKER LOW PARKING
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A LARGE ENOUGH DISAGREEMENT TO
BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN POPS/NO POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SO ALL THAT SAID...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
ANY OF THIS. SO WHILE PERIODIC CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED...I`M
PRETTY CONFIDENT WE WON`T BE SEEING ANY WASHOUTS. MATTER OF
FACT...THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE FOR LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE EXTENDED THAN OTHERWISE. SO IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (TIMING BEING THE MAIN CHALLENGE...BUT
NO WASHOUTS) AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CHALLENGING...RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WITH REGARDS TO
CIG HEIGHTS AND RAIN TRENDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER
DRY EAST FLOW ROTATING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH
SHOULD MAKE THE LOWER LEVELS HARD TO SATURATE...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-72. THINK THIS DRY ENVIRONMENT WILL
HALT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF RAINS INTO CENTRAL NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH KAPN AND KTVC LOOK TO REMAIN ALONG
THIS NORTHERN GRADIENT...SO WILL SIMPLY CARRY SOME VCSH AS A
STARTING POINT. LIGHT RAINS APPEAR MORE LIKELY AT KMBL LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL BOW NORTH WITH THE
RAIN...ALTHOUGH GOT TO QUESTION SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
STRATUS-PRODUCING GUIDANCE GIVEN MAINTENANCE OF DRY EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS ONLY AT KMBL...WITH PLENTY OF
TIME TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH THESE LOWER CIGS TREND (WELL BEYOND THE
6 HOUR CRITICAL TAF PERIOD). AS MENTIONED...GENERALLY LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND PASSING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
GRADIENT GETS JUST TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE SRN NEARSHORES FOR LOW
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RELATIVE
HIGHER PRESSURE SLIDES IN FOR MONDAY WITH LIKELY LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTHERLY TUESDAY...REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...DICKSON/KAB
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...DICKSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 302302
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SOME CU AND CIRRUS. CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE E DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT PUTTING IT IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND
E...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD. HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S NCENTRAL AND W AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SCENTRAL AND E.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRUSH SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY TONIGHT...BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STAY S SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FOR THE NEXT 1 TO PERHAPS 2 WEEKS...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W
HALF OF CANADA WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING EARLY IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA AND AT TIMES
INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROFFING WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY APPROACHING THE
W COAST WILL SPLIT AT TIMES...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT OF A
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TROF ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES UNLESS THE ERN TROF
RELAXES SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES TROF
TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY...CERTAINLY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT
POSSIBLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL. THUS...THERE IS LITTLE
PCPN IN THE FCST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKING WRN CANADA RIDGE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED
TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN COLD
FROPA PROBABLY OCCURRING LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS...THIS FROPA BRINGS THE ONLY PCPN POTENTIAL WORTH A MENTION IN
THE FCST. REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROF DEVELOPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH DECENT
FORCING...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE HIGHER CHC CATEGORY TUE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DECENT FORCING/STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND A LITTLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED/COLDER
TROF...MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING OVER THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERMAL TROF
WILL BE CENTERED (850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C).

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN FAVORS MOSTLY NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ON SOME
DAYS...NIGHTTIME MINS WILL STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE
INTERIOR. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR
MON...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN WILL RULE
THE AFTN HRS KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOLER. WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE TUE
AS W TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE TUE AFTN/EVENING. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS
LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW
FOR WED UNDER BRISK N WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK SOLIDLY BLO
NORMAL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB
THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA...FURTHER SUPPORTING COOL CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE MOVED INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MAINTAINING THE
COOL AIR THRU THU. WHILE FCST SHOWS SOME RISE IN TEMPS THU COMPARED
TO WED...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS THU END UP BEING PRETTY
SIMILAR TO WED. IN RECENT DAYS...GFS RUNS WERE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DROPPING A COLD MID LEVEL LOW INTO NRN ONTARIO MIDWEEK WITH
ANOMALOUSLY LOW 500MB HEIGHTS FOR EARLY MAY. OVER THE LAST 24HRS...
THE GFS HAS MOVED AWAY FROM DROPPING THIS SYSTEM SO FAR S. SO...
AFTER THE COOL WEATHER WED/THU...MODERATION WILL OCCUR FRI/SAT.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...RECENT NAEFS OUTLOOKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
A TREND TOWARD WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) DURING THE SECOND
WEEK OF MAY.

WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX
WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW
WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND
20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 302302
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SOME CU AND CIRRUS. CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE E DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT PUTTING IT IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND
E...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD. HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S NCENTRAL AND W AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SCENTRAL AND E.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRUSH SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY TONIGHT...BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STAY S SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FOR THE NEXT 1 TO PERHAPS 2 WEEKS...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W
HALF OF CANADA WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING EARLY IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA AND AT TIMES
INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROFFING WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY APPROACHING THE
W COAST WILL SPLIT AT TIMES...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT OF A
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TROF ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES UNLESS THE ERN TROF
RELAXES SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES TROF
TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY...CERTAINLY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT
POSSIBLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL. THUS...THERE IS LITTLE
PCPN IN THE FCST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKING WRN CANADA RIDGE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED
TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN COLD
FROPA PROBABLY OCCURRING LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS...THIS FROPA BRINGS THE ONLY PCPN POTENTIAL WORTH A MENTION IN
THE FCST. REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROF DEVELOPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH DECENT
FORCING...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE HIGHER CHC CATEGORY TUE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DECENT FORCING/STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND A LITTLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED/COLDER
TROF...MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING OVER THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERMAL TROF
WILL BE CENTERED (850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C).

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN FAVORS MOSTLY NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ON SOME
DAYS...NIGHTTIME MINS WILL STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE
INTERIOR. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR
MON...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN WILL RULE
THE AFTN HRS KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOLER. WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE TUE
AS W TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE TUE AFTN/EVENING. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS
LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW
FOR WED UNDER BRISK N WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK SOLIDLY BLO
NORMAL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB
THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA...FURTHER SUPPORTING COOL CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE MOVED INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MAINTAINING THE
COOL AIR THRU THU. WHILE FCST SHOWS SOME RISE IN TEMPS THU COMPARED
TO WED...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS THU END UP BEING PRETTY
SIMILAR TO WED. IN RECENT DAYS...GFS RUNS WERE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DROPPING A COLD MID LEVEL LOW INTO NRN ONTARIO MIDWEEK WITH
ANOMALOUSLY LOW 500MB HEIGHTS FOR EARLY MAY. OVER THE LAST 24HRS...
THE GFS HAS MOVED AWAY FROM DROPPING THIS SYSTEM SO FAR S. SO...
AFTER THE COOL WEATHER WED/THU...MODERATION WILL OCCUR FRI/SAT.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...RECENT NAEFS OUTLOOKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
A TREND TOWARD WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) DURING THE SECOND
WEEK OF MAY.

WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX
WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW
WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND
20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 302034
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
434 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SOME CU AND CIRRUS. CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE E DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT PUTTING IT IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND
E...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD. HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S NCENTRAL AND W AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SCENTRAL AND E.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRUSH SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY TONIGHT...BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STAY S SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FOR THE NEXT 1 TO PERHAPS 2 WEEKS...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W
HALF OF CANADA WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING EARLY IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA AND AT TIMES
INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROFFING WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY APPROACHING THE
W COAST WILL SPLIT AT TIMES...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT OF A
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TROF ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES UNLESS THE ERN TROF
RELAXES SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES TROF
TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY...CERTAINLY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT
POSSIBLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL. THUS...THERE IS LITTLE
PCPN IN THE FCST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKING WRN CANADA RIDGE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED
TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN COLD
FROPA PROBABLY OCCURRING LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS...THIS FROPA BRINGS THE ONLY PCPN POTENTIAL WORTH A MENTION IN
THE FCST. REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROF DEVELOPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH DECENT
FORCING...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE HIGHER CHC CATEGORY TUE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DECENT FORCING/STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND A LITTLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED/COLDER
TROF...MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING OVER THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERMAL TROF
WILL BE CENTERED (850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C).

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN FAVORS MOSTLY NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ON SOME
DAYS...NIGHTTIME MINS WILL STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE
INTERIOR. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR
MON...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN WILL RULE
THE AFTN HRS KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOLER. WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE TUE
AS W TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE TUE AFTN/EVENING. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS
LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW
FOR WED UNDER BRISK N WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK SOLIDLY BLO
NORMAL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB
THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA...FURTHER SUPPORTING COOL CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE MOVED INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MAINTAINING THE
COOL AIR THRU THU. WHILE FCST SHOWS SOME RISE IN TEMPS THU COMPARED
TO WED...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS THU END UP BEING PRETTY
SIMILAR TO WED. IN RECENT DAYS...GFS RUNS WERE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DROPPING A COLD MID LEVEL LOW INTO NRN ONTARIO MIDWEEK WITH
ANOMALOUSLY LOW 500MB HEIGHTS FOR EARLY MAY. OVER THE LAST 24HRS...
THE GFS HAS MOVED AWAY FROM DROPPING THIS SYSTEM SO FAR S. SO...
AFTER THE COOL WEATHER WED/THU...MODERATION WILL OCCUR FRI/SAT.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...RECENT NAEFS OUTLOOKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
A TREND TOWARD WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) DURING THE SECOND
WEEK OF MAY.

WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX
WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW
WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND
20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KAPX 302008
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
408 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TRANSITION ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER HUDSON BAY...WHILE A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
LIFT TOWARD THE SRN LAKES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL
BE CENTERED ON DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT SFC OBS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING UPPER LVL CLOUDS FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WHILE
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING AREA OF PCPN OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND SW LOWER MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN LOW AND MID LVLS (850/500MB RH UNDER 40 PCT)
LINGERING OVER NRN LWR AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW AND MID LVL MSTR INCREASING
(850/500MB RH 80PCT) FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS
THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SRN MI. 850/700MB QVECTORS
CURRENTLY SHOWING STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS SYSTEM
FOCUSED OVER SRN MI INTO THIS EVENING...WITH FORCING LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH AND OVERSPREADING LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL
QPF SHOWING MOST OF THE PCPN LINGERING SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC...WITH HIGHEST QPF (STILL UNDER ONE QUARTER
INCH) ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32.

OVERALL WILL MENTION RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER NRN MI LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS PLAINS SYSTEM APPROACHES. WILL LEAVE ERN
UPPER AND EXTREME TIP OF THE MITT DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND LINGERING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH.
WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS BETWEEN TVC AND PLN AS DOWN
SLOPING FLOW ENHANCES DRY EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: MAYBE A CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY?

                     ...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION:

A RATHER DISORGANIZED/LOOSE/BAGGY UPPER AIR PATTERN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER HEAD. ONE SHEARED OUT VORT
MAX WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO EASTERN UPPER WHICH HAS LITTLE TO NO SFC
RESPONSE. MEANWHILE...A BETTER WAVE SLOWLY MAKES IT`S WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL EJECTED ENERGY LIFTING INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN PRIOR TO THAT IN MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BE WORKING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SHOWING A NICE ARCING SOLID BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL
DROP INTO HERE MONDAY...BUT IT WILL HAVE MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES WILL ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR THEN...WITH A SFC RESPONSE OF
WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE...BUT
THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

DEEPER MOISTURE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW ARRIVING SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
LOWER...ESPECIALLY NE LOWER CLOSER TO THE SAG BAY. DOWNSLOPING WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY DECENT QPF ACROSS NW LOWER. SOLIDLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE SETTLES IN ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER WITH SOME GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...BUT IT WILL
BE A RATHER SLOW PROCESS. A FAIRLY QUIET MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT WAVE THAT IS MOISTURE STARVED. THIS WAVE SETTLES IN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WARM FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT GETS ROOTED INTO
THE BL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION IS MOISTURE...WHICH ATTM
APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO GARNER AND CAPE. THIS IS CERTAINLY GOT THE
LOOK OF SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT WITHOUT MOISTURE...CHANCES ARE QUITE
SMALL. WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS RIGHT NOW...AND LEAVE
THUNDER OUT. MAYBE THE NEXT DATA SET WILL HAVE SOMETHING MORE TO
SUGGEST.

HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW 50S SOUTH (IN CLOUDS) TO THE UPPER 50S IN
THE U.P. (THERE`S A CHANGE). MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60. MONDAY WARMER BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOW 60S U.P. AND
MID/POSSIBLE UPPER 60S NRN LOWER. LOWS IN THE 30S.


           ...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500MB PATTERN SHOWING
STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE ROCKIES AND OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND A NARROW BUT DEEPENING TROUGH DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A MOISTURE STARVED
CANADIAN LOW TO DROP RIGHT DOWN OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...DRAGGING H8 TEMPS OF 0C ALONG WITH IT. JUST WHEN THE LOW
TRIES PUSHING EAST...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC STEEPENS...BLOCKING
ANY PROGRESS. GUIDANCE DISAGREES JUST HOW FAR WEST THE LOW
RETROGRADES...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THIS LOW DEEPENING AND CAMPING
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND THE GFS SHOWING A BIT WEAKER LOW PARKING
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A LARGE ENOUGH DISAGREEMENT TO
BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN POPS/NO POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SO ALL THAT SAID...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
ANY OF THIS. SO WHILE PERIODIC CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED...I`M
PRETTY CONFIDENT WE WON`T BE SEEING ANY WASHOUTS. MATTER OF
FACT...THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE FOR LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE EXTENDED THAN OTHERWISE. SO IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (TIMING BEING THE MAIN CHALLENGE...BUT
NO WASHOUTS) AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
CONTINUE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH BREEZY EAST FLOW ACROSS NRN
MI TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIMITED PCPN
CHANCES FOR TAF SITES KTVC AND KPLN INTO SUNDAY DUE TO DOWN
SLOPING DRY EAST WINDS. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED NEAR KMBL BTWN 09Z AND 18Z...AS DEEPER MSTR LIFTS INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PLAINS STORM
SYSTEM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND PASSING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
GRADIENT GETS JUST TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE SRN NEARSHORES FOR LOW
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RELATIVE
HIGHER PRESSURE SLIDES IN FOR MONDAY WITH LIKELY LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTHERLY TUESDAY...REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...DICKSON/KAB
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...DICKSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SOME CU AND CIRRUS. CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE E DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT PUTTING IT IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND
E...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD. HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S NCENTRAL AND W AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SCENTRAL AND E.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRUSH SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY TONIGHT...BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STAY S SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE-
TROUGH PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A GENERALLY DRY NW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE REACHES PEAK
AMPLITUDE. AN ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE
EITHER LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHC FOR -SHRA TUE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS AS NOTED ON MODEL
SOUNDING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF .5 INCH OR LESS MOST DAYS
WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN
MAXES. THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING FROM SUN INTO MON MAINLY OVER THE
WRN INTERIOR WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE 5-9F AT MOST LOCATIONS.
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. WARMING WL CONTINUE ON TUE AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ARRIVE LATE TUE AFTERNOON/TUE EVENING. HOW WARM TUE TEMPS GET WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW SPOTS SOUTH CENTRAL
REACHING LOW 70S. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
WED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUILDING 5H HGTS
AS MID-LVL RIDGING NOSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
BY NEXT FRI.

WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE IF TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FASTER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND
20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SOME CU AND CIRRUS. CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE E DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT PUTTING IT IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND
E...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD. HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S NCENTRAL AND W AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SCENTRAL AND E.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRUSH SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY TONIGHT...BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STAY S SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE-
TROUGH PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A GENERALLY DRY NW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE REACHES PEAK
AMPLITUDE. AN ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE
EITHER LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHC FOR -SHRA TUE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS AS NOTED ON MODEL
SOUNDING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF .5 INCH OR LESS MOST DAYS
WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN
MAXES. THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING FROM SUN INTO MON MAINLY OVER THE
WRN INTERIOR WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE 5-9F AT MOST LOCATIONS.
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. WARMING WL CONTINUE ON TUE AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ARRIVE LATE TUE AFTERNOON/TUE EVENING. HOW WARM TUE TEMPS GET WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW SPOTS SOUTH CENTRAL
REACHING LOW 70S. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
WED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUILDING 5H HGTS
AS MID-LVL RIDGING NOSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
BY NEXT FRI.

WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE IF TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FASTER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND
20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301928
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 94. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OFF TO OUR SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT/S RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DAMP WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 50S AGAIN. WE WILL PUSH TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.

AS FOR THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT
AS AN 850MB WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS SEEN ALONG I-94 AT 850MB/S WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DECENT RAIN RATES FOR A TIME. AN 850MB LLJ INTERSECTS THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE STATE.
THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE (I-96).

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERALL...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS. HAVE 40-50 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS. RAIN SHOULD RAMP
UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEP BY THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A BIT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.  I ADDED POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RUNNING INTO SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A GRAY AND CHILLY DAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND MAINLY DRY.  H8 TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE 0C TO +5C RANGE SO NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT WE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE
SHOWERS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
THURSDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WERE VFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE THE RULE AS
WE APPROACH THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
SO THE I-94 TAF SITES WILL COME DOWN SOONER. EXPECT MVFR BY
21-22Z...AND IFR OR EVEN LIFR DEVELOPING 00-02Z. IT WILL OCCUR
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FOR THE I-96 TAF SITES...WITH MVFR BY 23-00Z AND
IFR BY 01-03Z.

ONCE THE LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE IFR/LIFR
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE GET TOWARD MID DAY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE MIXING
SEEMS LIGHT SO THIS COULD BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONSIDERED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
WIND...AS EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP A BIT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN A LOW JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A 1030MB
HIGH OVER ONTARIO. THINKING WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. GIVEN AN OFF SHORE WIND...WAVES WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE...NEARLY FLAT AT THE SHORE WITH 2-3 FOOTERS NEAR THE 5 MILE
MARK. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KDTX 301923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLED UP OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY (12Z
KILX SOUNDING INDICATED 9 C DEW PT AT 850 MB) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOLID UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/PV ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1 INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-69 CORRIDOR...SUPPORTIVE OF AMOUNTS REACHING AND LIKELY ECLIPSING
HALF AN INCH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS
SHOWALTER INDEX PROGGED TO DROP BELOW ZERO JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTUAL CAPE...SHOULD BE
HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE DO
BECOME STEEP ON SUNDAY (7+ C/KM)...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRYING
OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS...AND DON`T EXPECT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY. VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES IN PLACE (850
MB TEMPS OF 1 C OVER SAGINAW TO 10 C NEAR OHIO BORDER PER 12Z
EURO)...AND EVEN WOULD NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...COULD SEE FAR SOUTH
REACH AND EXCEED 60 DEGREES WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYING/LULL IN
ACTIVITY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE INDICATED A FARTHER NORTH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT TOMORROW...WHICH LOOKS TO SET US UP FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING....AS SECOND WAVE AND
LEFTOVER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES
EAST...PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
LOOKS TO CLIP AREAS SOUTH OF I-69 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z MODEL
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE SOUTH A BIT...BUT 12Z EURO
REMAINS MOST AGRESSIVE/ADAMANT...AND FEEL CONFIDENT TO GO LIKELY
POPS SOUTH OF I-69 TO CATEGORICAL NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. SUBSTANTIAL
COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE MERGING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL PROGGED
TO FALL TO ZERO...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP MAXES UNDER 60 DEGREES. IF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY
NIGHT...FROST CONCERNS WILL RETURN AS TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S WITH CALM/NEARLY CALM WINDS.

WEAK AND FRAGILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
TUESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE CLOUDS AROUND WITH A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
OHIO VALLEY SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE ONTARIO
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SUPPORT CLOSING OFF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION POSSIBLY EVEN INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS AN
UNPLEASANT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
HIGHLIGHTED BY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH GUIDANCE
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY. THESE
TYPES OF CLOSED SYSTEMS OFTEN END UP BEING SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN
MODEL FORECASTS WHICH ALSO POINTS TO A SHAKY START TO NEXT WEEKEND
AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN GUSTY OVER LAKE HURON
TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...AS PERSISTENT AND
STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE ALLOWS WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD BETWEEN 4
AND 8 FEET. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SPEEDS
DECREASE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LARGE WAVES TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING. A VERY LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM...OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND FINALLY TURN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAINFALL INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS THEN LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 9 PM AND 4 AM TONIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL THROUGH 2 PM SUNDAY LOOKS TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH SOUTH
OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THIS RAINFALL WILL PROMPT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER QUICK ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 MAY PICK UP AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 133 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS
A DETERIORATION IN CEILINGS/VIS AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. RAIN
SHIELD STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST
OHIO IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA NOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPILL
INTO THE TERMINALS DURING THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME. DRY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL INITIALLY KEEP CEILINGS/VIS AT VFR AS
RAIN BEGINS. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE ARRIVING AROUND 00Z WILL
THEN QUICKLY DROP CONDITIONS TO LOW-END MVFR AND IFR BY MID-EVENING.
RAIN WILL BE HEAVIER NEAR THE DETROIT-AREA TERMINALS WHERE A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE...AND EXPECT TO SEE A FEW DIPS TO LIFR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND VERY EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 08Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MBS.

FOR DTW...LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
UPSTREAM RADAR SUPPORTS RAIN BEGINNING AT DTW BETWEEN 20-21Z...WITH
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARRIVING AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY BE VFR AS RAIN BEGINS AS DRY AIR IN THE LOW-
LEVELS MUST FIRST BE OVERCOME. A PERIOD OF STRONGER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY TONIGHT...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z...MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO LIFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT BY 22Z...HIGH AFTER 00Z.

* LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT DTW TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF/BT
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 301811
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE TODAY BETWEEN LARGE
AREA OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY...AND A STORM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING RAIN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM
ALREADY NEARING SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.

OVERALL HUDSON BAY HIGH SETUP ACROSS THE NRN LAKES WILL CONTINUE A
DRY BREEZY EAST FLOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CORRESPONDING MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW
EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB (850/500MB RH UNDER
30 PCT). HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SHOW UPPER LVL MSTR OVERSPREADING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS PLAINS
SYSTEM LIFTS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOWING WELL MIXED LAYER THROUGH
850MB TODAY GENERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS IN LINE...REMAINING DRY WITH BREEZY EAST
WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER LVL CLOUDS. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW SLOWLY SWINGING SE THRU ONTARIO. SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF MICHIGAN ATTM...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW BAND OF MID
CLOUD SLIDING THRU FAR WRN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW CENTER. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE NRN
EDGE OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TRYING TO
MAKE NE PROGRESS INTO LWR MICHIGAN ATTM...BUT TENDING TO ERODE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY LOW LEVEL NE FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS MICHIGAN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR
CWA TODAY AS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PUSHES NE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS INCREASING HIGH CLOUD SHOULD REMAIN THIN
ENOUGH TO NOT PRECLUDE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA AS HIGH TEMPS
WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN EARLY THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA AFTER 00Z...PUSHING FURTHER
NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE STRAITS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF POPS AND IN QPF. ECMWF IS
DECIDEDLY MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND QPF FROM THIS
SYSTEM. WILL TREND A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM
GIVEN THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE TAPPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL
STILL KEEP POPS MAINLY WITHIN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS...TEMPS WILL BE MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS
LOWS FALL TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

(5/1)SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN UP TO THE STRAITS THIS
RUN, SO HAVE TRENDED THE POPS AND RAIN TO THE STRAITS AREA. THE
MODELS NOW HAVE A VERY SHARP 500 MB TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH BOTH OF THEM DEEPENING A SFC LOW THAT IS JUST SOUTH
OF THE INDIANA BORDER. THIS SETS UP A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LASTS UNTIL 00Z,
BUT ONCE THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE OR EAST OF THE STATE IN THE CASE OF THE FORMER, THE DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION.

(5/2)MONDAY...FOR THE DAY TIME, THE HIGH AND THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
(700-500 MB LAYER RH<30%) REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
ANOTHER DRY DAY. WITH THE RETURN FLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WARM THOUGH THE DAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH,
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR WINDS TO INCH UP TO 15 MPH, AND THE MIN RH
IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB 30%. THOSE TWO FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE
CLOSE TO CROSSING THE MORE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, AFTER 00Z,
THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO.
IT HAS SHOWN THIS SCENARIO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. SO WILL GO WITH SOME
LOW CHANGE POPS IN E UPPER AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AS WAS POINTED OUT IN THE DAY
DISCUSSION A BOWLING BALL BEGINS TO ROLL DOWN THE ALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. AS IT DOES, AND A
SIMILAR LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE PACIFIC COAST CUTS OFF, WE GET INTO
AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
MEANS, AT LEAST THAT WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH 500 MB LOWS SITTING
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT WE WILL
SIT IN SOME DRY AIR THOUGH. THIS WOULD PUT IS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
CONTINUE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH BREEZY EAST FLOW ACROSS NRN
MI TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIMITED PCPN
CHANCES FOR TAF SITES KTVC AND KPLN INTO SUNDAY DUE TO DOWN
SLOPING DRY EAST WINDS. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED NEAR KMBL BTWN 09Z ABND 18Z...AS DEEPER MSTR LIFTS INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PLAINS STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS AND WAVES WILL STRENGTHEN TO SCA CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING
FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS BETWEEN GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT AND MANISTEE
AND WILL HOLD THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY. COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
THANKS TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE WITHIN THIS
AREA COMBINED WITH TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTING THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
TRACKING NE TO LAKE ERIE. OUR LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON NEARSHORE
AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THRU SUNDAY...
LENDING TO LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SWR
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 301811
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE TODAY BETWEEN LARGE
AREA OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY...AND A STORM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING RAIN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM
ALREADY NEARING SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.

OVERALL HUDSON BAY HIGH SETUP ACROSS THE NRN LAKES WILL CONTINUE A
DRY BREEZY EAST FLOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CORRESPONDING MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW
EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB (850/500MB RH UNDER
30 PCT). HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SHOW UPPER LVL MSTR OVERSPREADING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS PLAINS
SYSTEM LIFTS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOWING WELL MIXED LAYER THROUGH
850MB TODAY GENERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS IN LINE...REMAINING DRY WITH BREEZY EAST
WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER LVL CLOUDS. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW SLOWLY SWINGING SE THRU ONTARIO. SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF MICHIGAN ATTM...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW BAND OF MID
CLOUD SLIDING THRU FAR WRN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW CENTER. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE NRN
EDGE OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TRYING TO
MAKE NE PROGRESS INTO LWR MICHIGAN ATTM...BUT TENDING TO ERODE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY LOW LEVEL NE FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS MICHIGAN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR
CWA TODAY AS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PUSHES NE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS INCREASING HIGH CLOUD SHOULD REMAIN THIN
ENOUGH TO NOT PRECLUDE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA AS HIGH TEMPS
WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN EARLY THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA AFTER 00Z...PUSHING FURTHER
NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE STRAITS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF POPS AND IN QPF. ECMWF IS
DECIDEDLY MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND QPF FROM THIS
SYSTEM. WILL TREND A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM
GIVEN THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE TAPPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL
STILL KEEP POPS MAINLY WITHIN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS...TEMPS WILL BE MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS
LOWS FALL TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

(5/1)SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN UP TO THE STRAITS THIS
RUN, SO HAVE TRENDED THE POPS AND RAIN TO THE STRAITS AREA. THE
MODELS NOW HAVE A VERY SHARP 500 MB TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH BOTH OF THEM DEEPENING A SFC LOW THAT IS JUST SOUTH
OF THE INDIANA BORDER. THIS SETS UP A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LASTS UNTIL 00Z,
BUT ONCE THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE OR EAST OF THE STATE IN THE CASE OF THE FORMER, THE DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION.

(5/2)MONDAY...FOR THE DAY TIME, THE HIGH AND THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
(700-500 MB LAYER RH<30%) REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
ANOTHER DRY DAY. WITH THE RETURN FLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WARM THOUGH THE DAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH,
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR WINDS TO INCH UP TO 15 MPH, AND THE MIN RH
IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB 30%. THOSE TWO FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE
CLOSE TO CROSSING THE MORE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, AFTER 00Z,
THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO.
IT HAS SHOWN THIS SCENARIO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. SO WILL GO WITH SOME
LOW CHANGE POPS IN E UPPER AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AS WAS POINTED OUT IN THE DAY
DISCUSSION A BOWLING BALL BEGINS TO ROLL DOWN THE ALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. AS IT DOES, AND A
SIMILAR LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE PACIFIC COAST CUTS OFF, WE GET INTO
AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
MEANS, AT LEAST THAT WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH 500 MB LOWS SITTING
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT WE WILL
SIT IN SOME DRY AIR THOUGH. THIS WOULD PUT IS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
CONTINUE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH BREEZY EAST FLOW ACROSS NRN
MI TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIMITED PCPN
CHANCES FOR TAF SITES KTVC AND KPLN INTO SUNDAY DUE TO DOWN
SLOPING DRY EAST WINDS. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED NEAR KMBL BTWN 09Z ABND 18Z...AS DEEPER MSTR LIFTS INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PLAINS STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS AND WAVES WILL STRENGTHEN TO SCA CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING
FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS BETWEEN GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT AND MANISTEE
AND WILL HOLD THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY. COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
THANKS TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE WITHIN THIS
AREA COMBINED WITH TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTING THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
TRACKING NE TO LAKE ERIE. OUR LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON NEARSHORE
AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THRU SUNDAY...
LENDING TO LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SWR
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301756
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
156 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND RISING TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST GOING AS PLANNED TODAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED IN THE MODELS IN A
ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. AN 850MB WARM FRONT WHICH SETS UP THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD
IN THE 50S IN MANY AREAS GIVEN THE THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
IT WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER WITH A STIFF BREEZE FROM THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND GENERATE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD SATURATION WHICH WILL OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY 18Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
ROUGHLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND AROUND
A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. SHOWERS FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR TODAY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WET BULBING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH
FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY... BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AN
OMEGA PATTERN IS PROGGED ALOFT WITH LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN
AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION.

CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING IT CLOSE BY
OVER THE ERN GRTLKS RGN BUT THE GFS SENDING IT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC RGN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING... ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
131 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WERE VFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE THE RULE AS
WE APPROACH THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
SO THE I-94 TAF SITES WILL COME DOWN SOONER. EXPECT MVFR BY
21-22Z...AND IFR OR EVEN LIFR DEVELOPING 00-02Z. IT WILL OCCUR
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FOR THE I-96 TAF SITES...WITH MVFR BY 23-00Z AND
IFR BY 01-03Z.

ONCE THE LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE IFR/LIFR
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE GET TOWARD MID DAY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE MIXING
SEEMS LIGHT SO THIS COULD BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WAVE
HEIGHTS... THE WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL APPROACH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 22 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301741
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
141 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR PICKS UP A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
INLAND TODAY...THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST THURSDAY...PRECIP WILL
ATTEMPT TO EDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT HIGHER THIS TIME
AROUND...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AMID WEAKENING FORCING
TO STAVE OFF ANY PRECIP. BUT AGAIN...VIRGA WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.

HIGHER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE OFFSET BY SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD-COVER
AND STRONGER NE GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...PRODUCING
HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.
MIXING WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY MITIGATED BY THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...SO MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S INLAND. THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUING DRYING TREND OF AT LEAST SHORT TERM
WILDFIRE FUELS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE-
TROUGH PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A GENERALLY DRY NW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE REACHES PEAK
AMPLITUDE. AN ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE
EITHER LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHC FOR -SHRA TUE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS AS NOTED ON MODEL
SOUNDING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF .5 INCH OR LESS MOST DAYS
WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN
MAXES. THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING FROM SUN INTO MON MAINLY OVER THE
WRN INTERIOR WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE 5-9F AT MOST LOCATIONS.
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. WARMING WL CONTINUE ON TUE AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ARRIVE LATE TUE AFTERNOON/TUE EVENING. HOW WARM TUE TEMPS GET WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW SPOTS SOUTH CENTRAL
REACHING LOW 70S. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
WED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUILDING 5H HGTS
AS MID-LVL RIDGING NOSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
BY NEXT FRI.

WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE IF TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FASTER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO
FUNNELING EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN
RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS
HIGH AS 25 KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KLUBER




000
FXUS63 KDTX 301733
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
133 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


.AVIATION...

HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS
A DETERIORATION IN CEILINGS/VIS AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. RAIN
SHIELD STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST
OHIO IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA NOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPILL
INTO THE TERMINALS DURING THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME. DRY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL INITIALLY KEEP CEILINGS/VIS AT VFR AS
RAIN BEGINS. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE ARRIVING AROUND 00Z WILL
THEN QUICKLY DROP CONDITIONS TO LOW-END MVFR AND IFR BY MID-EVENING.
RAIN WILL BE HEAVIER NEAR THE DETROIT-AREA TERMINALS WHERE A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE...AND EXPECT TO SEE A FEW DIPS TO LIFR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND VERY EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 08Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MBS.


FOR DTW...LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
UPSTREAM RADAR SUPPORTS RAIN BEGINNING AT DTW BETWEEN 20-21Z...WITH
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARRIVING AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY BE VFR AS RAIN BEGINS AS DRY AIR IN THE LOW-
LEVELS MUST FIRST BE OVERCOME. A PERIOD OF STRONGER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY TONIGHT...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z...MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO LIFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT BY 22Z...HIGH AFTER 00Z.

* LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT DTW TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

TODAY...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A SOLID RAINFALL
EVENT LOCALLY HEADING INTO TONIGHT CURRENTLY IN THE EARLY STAGES OF
DEVELOPMENT JUST UPSTREAM.  WATER VAPOR DISPLAYING A CLEAR SIGNAL OF
DEEP LAYER NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT LODGED WITHIN THE ATTENDANT
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CLOSED LOW/HEIGHT FALLS NOW LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  A
CLASSIC APPEARING SETUP AT THE FRONT END...PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TODAY.
RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF HIGH CLOUD COMBINED WITH PESKY LINGERING
STRATUS WILL LEAVE A SHRINKING WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKY EARLY TODAY.
MODEST RECOVERY TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE GIVEN THE GENERAL
UPWARD INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND SOME ADDED INSOLATION
POTENTIAL /PARTICULARLY NORTH/.  CONTINUED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A NEUTRAL ADVECTIVE COMPONENT...NETTING A SOMEWHAT
LIMITED OVERALL RESPONSE. WITH THAT...STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 MOST LOCALES.

TONIGHT...WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AXIS LOCKED ALONG AN EMERGING STRONG
WING OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE
INTO SE MICHIGAN AFTER 20Z.  AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION OF DCVA AND
CONVERGENCE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING IMPINGE ON
THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF RAINFALL
LIFTING ACROSS ALL LOCALES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  00Z NAM/ARR/NMM
MODEL SUITE POINT TOWARD A POTENTIALLY MORE DYNAMIC RESPONSE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...PORTIONS OF SE MICHIGAN BECOMING
FAVORABLY POSITIONED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE
AND DEFORMATION AXIS.  DIMINISHED STABILITY THROUGH THIS LAYER WILL
ADD A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  INSTABILITY NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
THUNDER MENTION...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH
CERTAINLY IN PLAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION MAY BE SLOW
TO VACATE THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE PARENT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS SLOWLY EXIT INTO ONTARIO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  SUBSTANTIAL
RESIDUAL MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ENSURE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS HOLDS ALL LOCALES...WITH POST-SYSTEM NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS REACHING
INTO THE 50S REMAIN ON TARGET.  GREATER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY YET IN
THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDING A MIXED SIGNAL ON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW
EJECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME
WINDOW.  POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DCVA WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS WAVE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...POSITIONING YIELDING A GREATER POSSIBILITY SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGHING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
ACTIVE WEEKEND PATTERN. INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO MONDAY
WILL FAVOR A STEADY CLEARING TREND...THE ADDED INSOLATION POTENTIAL
BOOSTING HIGHS BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 60S. MODERATING TREND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING. TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY /MID 60S/.

MARINE...

MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FRESH AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL GUST TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME
WHILE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO
BECOME ELEVATED IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND WILL
FILL IN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR SEEING UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE FAVORED TIME PERIOD FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS BETWEEN 10 PM AND 5 AM LOCAL TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT,DEPENDING ON HOW LONG DEFORMATION FORCING LINGERS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301718
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND RISING TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST GOING AS PLANNED TODAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED IN THE MODELS IN A
ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. AN 850MB WARM FRONT WHICH SETS UP THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD
IN THE 50S IN MANY AREAS GIVEN THE THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
IT WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER WITH A STIFF BREEZE FROM THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND GENERATE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD SATURATION WHICH WILL OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY 18Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
ROUGHLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND AROUND
A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. SHOWERS FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR TODAY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WET BULBING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH
FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY... BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AN
OMEGA PATTERN IS PROGGED ALOFT WITH LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN
AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION.

CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING IT CLOSE BY
OVER THE ERN GRTLKS RGN BUT THE GFS SENDING IT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC RGN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING... ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
131 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z... THEN RAIN AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR REGION: MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 20Z OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY IFR AFTER 00Z. LIFR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.

FOR THE I-96 CORRIDOR REGION: THE MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 00Z
WITH IFR PROBABLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WAVE
HEIGHTS... THE WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL APPROACH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 22 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301626
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1226 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND RISING TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST GOING AS PLANNED TODAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED IN THE MODELS IN A
ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. AN 850MB WARM FRONT WHICH SETS UP THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD
IN THE 50S IN MANY AREAS GIVEN THE THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
IT WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER WITH A STIFF BREEZE FROM THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND GENERATE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD SATURATION WHICH WILL OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY 18Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
ROUGHLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND AROUND
A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. SHOWERS FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR TODAY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WET BULBING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH
FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY... BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AN
OMEGA PATTERN IS PROGGED ALOFT WITH LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN
AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION.

CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING IT CLOSE BY
OVER THE ERN GRTLKS RGN BUT THE GFS SENDING IT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC RGN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING... ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
131 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z... THEN RAIN AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR REGION: MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 20Z OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY IFR AFTER 00Z. LIFR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.

FOR THE I-96 CORRIDOR REGION: THE MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 00Z
WITH IFR PROBABLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WAVE
HEIGHTS... THE WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL APPROACH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 22 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KAPX 301425
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1025 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE TODAY BETWEEN LARGE
AREA OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY...AND A STORM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING RAIN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM
ALREADY NEARING SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.

OVERALL HUDSON BAY HIGH SETUP ACROSS THE NRN LAKES WILL CONTINUE A
DRY BREEZY EAST FLOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CORRESPONDING MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW
EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB (850/500MB RH UNDER
30 PCT). HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SHOW UPPER LVL MSTR OVERSPREADING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS PLAINS
SYSTEM LIFTS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOWING WELL MIXED LAYER THROUGH
850MB TODAY GENERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS IN LINE...REMAINING DRY WITH BREEZY EAST
WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER LVL CLOUDS. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW SLOWLY SWINGING SE THRU ONTARIO. SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF MICHIGAN ATTM...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW BAND OF MID
CLOUD SLIDING THRU FAR WRN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW CENTER. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE NRN
EDGE OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TRYING TO
MAKE NE PROGRESS INTO LWR MICHIGAN ATTM...BUT TENDING TO ERODE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY LOW LEVEL NE FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS MICHIGAN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR
CWA TODAY AS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PUSHES NE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS INCREASING HIGH CLOUD SHOULD REMAIN THIN
ENOUGH TO NOT PRECLUDE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA AS HIGH TEMPS
WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN EARLY THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA AFTER 00Z...PUSHING FURTHER
NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE STRAITS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF POPS AND IN QPF. ECMWF IS
DECIDEDLY MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND QPF FROM THIS
SYSTEM. WILL TREND A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM
GIVEN THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE TAPPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL
STILL KEEP POPS MAINLY WITHIN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS...TEMPS WILL BE MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS
LOWS FALL TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

(5/1)SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN UP TO THE STRAITS THIS
RUN, SO HAVE TRENDED THE POPS AND RAIN TO THE STRAITS AREA. THE
MODELS NOW HAVE A VERY SHARP 500 MB TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH BOTH OF THEM DEEPENING A SFC LOW THAT IS JUST SOUTH
OF THE INDIANA BORDER. THIS SETS UP A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LASTS UNTIL 00Z,
BUT ONCE THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE OR EAST OF THE STATE IN THE CASE OF THE FORMER, THE DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION.

(5/2)MONDAY...FOR THE DAY TIME, THE HIGH AND THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
(700-500 MB LAYER RH<30%) REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
ANOTHER DRY DAY. WITH THE RETURN FLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WARM THOUGH THE DAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH,
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR WINDS TO INCH UP TO 15 MPH, AND THE MIN RH
IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB 30%. THOSE TWO FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE
CLOSE TO CROSSING THE MORE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, AFTER 00Z,
THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO.
IT HAS SHOWN THIS SCENARIO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. SO WILL GO WITH SOME
LOW CHANGE POPS IN E UPPER AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AS WAS POINTED OUT IN THE DAY
DISCUSSION A BOWLING BALL BEGINS TO ROLL DOWN THE ALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. AS IT DOES, AND A
SIMILAR LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE PACIFIC COAST CUTS OFF, WE GET INTO
AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
MEANS, AT LEAST THAT WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH 500 MB LOWS SITTING
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT WE WILL
SIT IN SOME DRY AIR THOUGH. THIS WOULD PUT IS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF INCREASING MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN. LIGHT WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E/NE AT AROUND 10 KTS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS AND WAVES WILL STRENGTHEN TO SCA CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING
FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS BETWEEN GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT AND MANISTEE
AND WILL HOLD THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY. COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
THANKS TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE WITHIN THIS
AREA COMBINED WITH TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTING THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
TRACKING NE TO LAKE ERIE. OUR LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON NEARSHORE
AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THRU SUNDAY...
LENDING TO LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SWR
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301154
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND RISING TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND GENERATE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD SATURATION WHICH WILL OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY 18Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
ROUGHLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND AROUND
A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. SHOWERS FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR TODAY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WET BULBING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH
FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY... BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AN
OMEGA PATTERN IS PROGGED ALOFT WITH LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN
AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION.

CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING IT CLOSE BY
OVER THE ERN GRTLKS RGN BUT THE GFS SENDING IT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC RGN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING... ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
131 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z... THEN RAIN AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR REGION: MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 20Z OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY IFR AFTER 00Z. LIFR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.

FOR THE I-96 CORRIDOR REGION: THE MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 00Z
WITH IFR PROBABLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WAVE
HEIGHTS... THE WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL APPROACH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 22 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR PICKS UP A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
INLAND TODAY...THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST THURSDAY...PRECIP WILL
ATTEMPT TO EDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT HIGHER THIS TIME
AROUND...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AMID WEAKENING FORCING
TO STAVE OFF ANY PRECIP. BUT AGAIN...VIRGA WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.

HIGHER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE OFFSET BY SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD-COVER
AND STRONGER NE GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...PRODUCING
HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.
MIXING WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY MITIGATED BY THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...SO MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S INLAND. THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUING DRYING TREND OF AT LEAST SHORT TERM
WILDFIRE FUELS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE-
TROUGH PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A GENERALLY DRY NW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE REACHES PEAK
AMPLITUDE. AN ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE
EITHER LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHC FOR -SHRA TUE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS AS NOTED ON MODEL
SOUNDING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF .5 INCH OR LESS MOST DAYS
WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN
MAXES. THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING FROM SUN INTO MON MAINLY OVER THE
WRN INTERIOR WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE 5-9F AT MOST LOCATIONS.
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. WARMING WL CONTINUE ON TUE AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ARRIVE LATE TUE AFTERNOON/TUE EVENING. HOW WARM TUE TEMPS GET WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW SPOTS SOUTH CENTRAL
REACHING LOW 70S. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
WED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUILDING 5H HGTS
AS MID-LVL RIDGING NOSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
BY NEXT FRI.

WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE IF TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FASTER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXPECTION WILL BE AT KCMX LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH-END MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH A POCKET OF
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO
FUNNELING EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN
RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS
HIGH AS 25 KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR PICKS UP A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
INLAND TODAY...THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST THURSDAY...PRECIP WILL
ATTEMPT TO EDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT HIGHER THIS TIME
AROUND...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AMID WEAKENING FORCING
TO STAVE OFF ANY PRECIP. BUT AGAIN...VIRGA WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.

HIGHER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE OFFSET BY SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD-COVER
AND STRONGER NE GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...PRODUCING
HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.
MIXING WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY MITIGATED BY THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...SO MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S INLAND. THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUING DRYING TREND OF AT LEAST SHORT TERM
WILDFIRE FUELS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE-
TROUGH PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A GENERALLY DRY NW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE REACHES PEAK
AMPLITUDE. AN ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE
EITHER LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHC FOR -SHRA TUE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS AS NOTED ON MODEL
SOUNDING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF .5 INCH OR LESS MOST DAYS
WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN
MAXES. THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING FROM SUN INTO MON MAINLY OVER THE
WRN INTERIOR WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE 5-9F AT MOST LOCATIONS.
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. WARMING WL CONTINUE ON TUE AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ARRIVE LATE TUE AFTERNOON/TUE EVENING. HOW WARM TUE TEMPS GET WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW SPOTS SOUTH CENTRAL
REACHING LOW 70S. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
WED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUILDING 5H HGTS
AS MID-LVL RIDGING NOSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
BY NEXT FRI.

WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE IF TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FASTER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXPECTION WILL BE AT KCMX LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH-END MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH A POCKET OF
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO
FUNNELING EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN
RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS
HIGH AS 25 KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER




000
FXUS63 KDTX 301103
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
703 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


.AVIATION...

AREAWIDE VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. WIND WILL HOLD FIRMLY
OUT OF THE EAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE BACKING TO THE NE UPON
PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN
RATES 00-06Z...PARTICULARLY IN THE DETROIT AREA...ALONG WITH RAPID
DETERIORATION OF CIGS TO LOW MVFR. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
ITS WAKE WILL SUPPORT IFR BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW...BEST ESTIMATE FOR START TIME TO PRECIP IS 21Z. CIGS WILL
INITIALLY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO ANTECEDANT DRY AIR BUT WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE BY 00Z AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. STOUT FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT BY 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

TODAY...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A SOLID RAINFALL
EVENT LOCALLY HEADING INTO TONIGHT CURRENTLY IN THE EARLY STAGES OF
DEVELOPMENT JUST UPSTREAM.  WATER VAPOR DISPLAYING A CLEAR SIGNAL OF
DEEP LAYER NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT LODGED WITHIN THE ATTENDANT
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CLOSED LOW/HEIGHT FALLS NOW LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  A
CLASSIC APPEARING SETUP AT THE FRONT END...PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TODAY.
RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF HIGH CLOUD COMBINED WITH PESKY LINGERING
STRATUS WILL LEAVE A SHRINKING WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKY EARLY TODAY.
MODEST RECOVERY TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE GIVEN THE GENERAL
UPWARD INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND SOME ADDED INSOLATION
POTENTIAL /PARTICULARLY NORTH/.  CONTINUED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A NEUTRAL ADVECTIVE COMPONENT...NETTING A SOMEWHAT
LIMITED OVERALL RESPONSE. WITH THAT...STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 MOST LOCALES.

TONIGHT...WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AXIS LOCKED ALONG AN EMERGING STRONG
WING OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE
INTO SE MICHIGAN AFTER 20Z.  AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION OF DCVA AND
CONVERGENCE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING IMPINGE ON
THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF RAINFALL
LIFTING ACROSS ALL LOCALES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  00Z NAM/ARR/NMM
MODEL SUITE POINT TOWARD A POTENTIALLY MORE DYNAMIC RESPONSE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...PORTIONS OF SE MICHIGAN BECOMING
FAVORABLY POSITIONED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE
AND DEFORMATION AXIS.  DIMINISHED STABILITY THROUGH THIS LAYER WILL
ADD A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  INSTABILITY NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
THUNDER MENTION...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH
CERTAINLY IN PLAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION MAY BE SLOW
TO VACATE THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE PARENT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS SLOWLY EXIT INTO ONTARIO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  SUBSTANTIAL
RESIDUAL MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ENSURE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS HOLDS ALL LOCALES...WITH POST-SYSTEM NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS REACHING
INTO THE 50S REMAIN ON TARGET.  GREATER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY YET IN
THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDING A MIXED SIGNAL ON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW
EJECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME
WINDOW.  POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DCVA WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS WAVE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...POSITIONING YIELDING A GREATER POSSIBILITY SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGHING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
ACTIVE WEEKEND PATTERN. INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO MONDAY
WILL FAVOR A STEADY CLEARING TREND...THE ADDED INSOLATION POTENTIAL
BOOSTING HIGHS BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 60S. MODERATING TREND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING. TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY /MID 60S/.

MARINE...

MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FRESH AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL GUST TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME
WHILE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO
BECOME ELEVATED IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND WILL
FILL IN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR SEEING UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE FAVORED TIME PERIOD FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS BETWEEN 10 PM AND 5 AM LOCAL TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT,DEPENDING ON HOW LONG DEFORMATION FORCING LINGERS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KAPX 301045
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW SLOWLY SWINGING SE THRU ONTARIO. SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF MICHIGAN ATTM...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW BAND OF MID
CLOUD SLIDING THRU FAR WRN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW CENTER. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE NRN
EDGE OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TRYING TO
MAKE NE PROGRESS INTO LWR MICHIGAN ATTM...BUT TENDING TO ERODE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY LOW LEVEL NE FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS MICHIGAN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR
CWA TODAY AS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PUSHES NE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS INCREASING HIGH CLOUD SHOULD REMAIN THIN
ENOUGH TO NOT PRECLUDE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA AS HIGH TEMPS
WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN EARLY THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA AFTER 00Z...PUSHING FURTHER
NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE STRAITS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF POPS AND IN QPF. ECMWF IS
DECIDEDLY MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND QPF FROM THIS
SYSTEM. WILL TREND A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM
GIVEN THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE TAPPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL
STILL KEEP POPS MAINLY WITHIN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS...TEMPS WILL BE MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS
LOWS FALL TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

(5/1)SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN UP TO THE STRAITS THIS
RUN, SO HAVE TRENDED THE POPS AND RAIN TO THE STRAITS AREA. THE
MODELS NOW HAVE A VERY SHARP 500 MB TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH BOTH OF THEM DEEPENING A SFC LOW THAT IS JUST SOUTH
OF THE INDIANA BORDER. THIS SETS UP A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LASTS UNTIL 00Z,
BUT ONCE THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE OR EAST OF THE STATE IN THE CASE OF THE FORMER, THE DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION.

(5/2)MONDAY...FOR THE DAY TIME, THE HIGH AND THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
(700-500 MB LAYER RH<30%) REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
ANOTHER DRY DAY. WITH THE RETURN FLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WARM THOUGH THE DAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH,
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR WINDS TO INCH UP TO 15 MPH, AND THE MIN RH
IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB 30%. THOSE TWO FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE
CLOSE TO CROSSING THE MORE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, AFTER 00Z,
THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO.
IT HAS SHOWN THIS SCENARIO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. SO WILL GO WITH SOME
LOW CHANGE POPS IN E UPPER AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AS WAS POINTED OUT IN THE DAY
DISCUSSION A BOWLING BALL BEGINS TO ROLL DOWN THE ALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. AS IT DOES, AND A
SIMILAR LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE PACIFIC COAST CUTS OFF, WE GET INTO
AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
MEANS, AT LEAST THAT WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH 500 MB LOWS SITTING
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT WE WILL
SIT IN SOME DRY AIR THOUGH. THIS WOULD PUT IS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF INCREASING MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN. LIGHT WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E/NE AT AROUND 10 KTS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS AND WAVES WILL STRENGTHEN TO SCA CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING
FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS BETWEEN GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT AND MANISTEE
AND WILL HOLD THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY. COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
THANKS TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE WITHIN THIS
AREA COMBINED WITH TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTING THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
TRACKING NE TO LAKE ERIE. OUR LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON NEARSHORE
AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THRU SUNDAY...
LENDING TO LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 301045
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW SLOWLY SWINGING SE THRU ONTARIO. SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF MICHIGAN ATTM...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW BAND OF MID
CLOUD SLIDING THRU FAR WRN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW CENTER. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE NRN
EDGE OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TRYING TO
MAKE NE PROGRESS INTO LWR MICHIGAN ATTM...BUT TENDING TO ERODE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY LOW LEVEL NE FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS MICHIGAN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR
CWA TODAY AS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PUSHES NE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS INCREASING HIGH CLOUD SHOULD REMAIN THIN
ENOUGH TO NOT PRECLUDE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA AS HIGH TEMPS
WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN EARLY THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA AFTER 00Z...PUSHING FURTHER
NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE STRAITS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF POPS AND IN QPF. ECMWF IS
DECIDEDLY MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND QPF FROM THIS
SYSTEM. WILL TREND A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM
GIVEN THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE TAPPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL
STILL KEEP POPS MAINLY WITHIN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS...TEMPS WILL BE MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS
LOWS FALL TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

(5/1)SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN UP TO THE STRAITS THIS
RUN, SO HAVE TRENDED THE POPS AND RAIN TO THE STRAITS AREA. THE
MODELS NOW HAVE A VERY SHARP 500 MB TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH BOTH OF THEM DEEPENING A SFC LOW THAT IS JUST SOUTH
OF THE INDIANA BORDER. THIS SETS UP A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LASTS UNTIL 00Z,
BUT ONCE THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE OR EAST OF THE STATE IN THE CASE OF THE FORMER, THE DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION.

(5/2)MONDAY...FOR THE DAY TIME, THE HIGH AND THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
(700-500 MB LAYER RH<30%) REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
ANOTHER DRY DAY. WITH THE RETURN FLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WARM THOUGH THE DAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH,
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR WINDS TO INCH UP TO 15 MPH, AND THE MIN RH
IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB 30%. THOSE TWO FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE
CLOSE TO CROSSING THE MORE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, AFTER 00Z,
THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO.
IT HAS SHOWN THIS SCENARIO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. SO WILL GO WITH SOME
LOW CHANGE POPS IN E UPPER AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AS WAS POINTED OUT IN THE DAY
DISCUSSION A BOWLING BALL BEGINS TO ROLL DOWN THE ALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. AS IT DOES, AND A
SIMILAR LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE PACIFIC COAST CUTS OFF, WE GET INTO
AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
MEANS, AT LEAST THAT WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH 500 MB LOWS SITTING
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT WE WILL
SIT IN SOME DRY AIR THOUGH. THIS WOULD PUT IS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF INCREASING MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN. LIGHT WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E/NE AT AROUND 10 KTS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS AND WAVES WILL STRENGTHEN TO SCA CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING
FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS BETWEEN GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT AND MANISTEE
AND WILL HOLD THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY. COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
THANKS TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE WITHIN THIS
AREA COMBINED WITH TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTING THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
TRACKING NE TO LAKE ERIE. OUR LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON NEARSHORE
AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THRU SUNDAY...
LENDING TO LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR




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